美联储利率

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1. 北京时间 2026-08-08 14:19:25 方法论

   博主总结华尔街看空AI股的六大通用话术模板。

   我梳理了华尔街针对AI概念股的空头剧本全集： 请在下方填入你熟悉的机构/媒体常引用的名称： 1. < ______ [GPU(图形处理器)、光模块、MLCC(多层陶瓷电容)、存储...] 是即将崩盘的 commoditized(大宗商品化) 产品 > 2. < ______ [长存、长鑫、东山精密...] 等中国厂商将淹没市场 > 3. < ______ [美光、英伟达...] 据不可靠的渠道检查正面临问题 > 4. < ______ [韩综指、Sivers...] 是像 ____ [2007、2021] 年崩盘一样的泡沫 > 5. < 今年将有 ____ [1,2,3...] 次意外的加息 > 6. < _____ [谷歌、英伟达、Deepseek...] 的优化消除了对此的需求！> 填入新标题，这就准备就绪了！

   英文原文

   I've mapped the entire Wall Street bear playbook on AI names: Have your favorite institution/media insert one of these name down below: 1. < ______ [GPUs, Transcivers, MLCC, Memory...] are a commodity set to crash> 2. < ______ [YMTC, CXMT, Dongshan...] from China will flood the market > 3. < ______ [Micron, Nvidia, ...] from unverifiable channel checks is facing issues > 4. < ______ [Kospi, Sivers, ...] is a bubble like the ____ [2007, 2021] crash> 5. <____ [1,2,3, ...] unexpected rate hikes this year> 6. < _____ [Google, Nvidia, Deepseek ...] optimization removes the need of this!> in a new headline, and it's ready to go!

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
2. 北京时间 2026-08-04 07:35:14 方法论

   Citadel借加息恐慌低价抄底AI资产，展现逆向操作策略。

   效仿 Citadel： > 几天前呼吁意外加息，引发市场恐慌 > 随即出手，买入数十亿美元被清算的对冲基金 AI 资产 > 最终并未加息 > “牛市驱动因素依然完好” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq

   英文原文

   Be Citadel: &gt; calls for unexpected rate hike few days ago, causing market panic &gt; reaches out and buys billions of liquidated hedge fund AI assets &gt; no rate hike &gt; “Bull market drivers are fully intact” https://t.co/gyy4Nk4SHq

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
3. 北京时间 2026-07-31 18:10:30 供应链分析 $AMZN$GOOGL$META$MSFT

   反驳媒体看空AI，指出巨头需求旺盛且韩国半导体大涨。

   本周要点速览： 媒体：超大规模云厂商建设过剩，正在抛售多余算力。 -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, 和 $AMZN：算力需求远超产能。资本支出(Capex)持续飙升。 机构：紧急加息或三次加息，行情就此终结。 -> Kevin Warsh：不会加息。 散户/媒体：AI因是泡沫而崩盘。 -> 城堡证券(Citadel)正寻求买入AI杠杆对冲基金头寸：👀 Jim Cramer：清仓所有杠杆型数据中心(DC)股票。 -> 韩国市场：SK海力士(SK Hynix) +30%，三星(Samsung) +26.81%

   英文原文

   Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble. -> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀 Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks. -> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
4. 北京时间 2026-07-30 02:10:55 杂谈

   美联储维持利率不变，市场已消化预期，等待主席讲话。

   美联储将利率维持在 3.50% - 3.75% 不变。 目前情况良好，因为如果立即加息，市场本会抛售（似乎已经大幅提前消化了加息预期）。 现在大家都在等待美联储主席的讲话。 https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb

   英文原文

   Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now. https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
5. 北京时间 2026-07-29 06:25:27 个股论点 $AAOI$AMKR$BE$CXMT$GOOGL$LITE$META$MU$NBIS$SIVE$SNDK$TER

   博主认为AI需求加速信号明确，短期波动属去杠杆，看好光互连及存储板块。

   我个人认为这是极短期的去杠杆行为，导致许多个股超跌。 - $BE 和 $TER 公布了超预期的业绩，Bloom 报告营收同比增长 166% + 利润率扩张 + 上调 2026 年指引... Teradyne 报告营收同比增长 104%，每股收益增长 300%+。 - 中国领先的光学玩家公布了惊人的初步财报，对西方光子学板块有极强的映射效应。 - 我认为财报季倾向于提醒市场 AI 加速仍在继续。我预计 $LITE、$SNDK / SK Hynix 以及板块龙头 ERs 将继续这一趋势。 - 但感觉市场更多是在奖励现有的加速，而非基于短期修正（如 $AMKR 所见）的未来一年增长。 - 总之，对我跟踪的主题来说看起来非常积极。 - 然后你有 $GOOGL 资本支出上调至 1950-2050 亿美元，这通常是超大规模云厂商最大的 AI 需求信号。 - 预测市场显示下次 FOMC 会议利率不变的概率为 77%。特朗普政府周一呼吁美联储降息。 - 所以今年三次加息的恐惧似乎有些夸大。 - 从 DUV 到 $CXMT 产能过剩的中国恐惧也被极度夸大。我们在每个行业都见过这种情况，直到人们记住激光或 HBM 瓶颈存在是有原因的。 - 就个人想法而言，看到所有东西一起涨跌是不健康的，尤其是这些主题。但我个人并不担心，因为我对我的持仓有充分信心，特别是像 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 这样的光互连领域。 - $META 计算和 $GOOGL GCP 利润率/增长显示出对 $NBIS 及类似新云业务模式的需求增加。 - $META 及其他超大规模云厂商关于与 $SNDK 和三星/SK Hynix、$MU 的长期协议（LTAs）的笔记指向结构性内存需求。 - 可以一直列举下去... - 但当 Jim Cramer 告诉每个保证金交易员在开盘时“全部卖出”，而新闻说存在 AI 泡沫时。 - 我讨厌别人说“它在跌所以卖出”。我相信重要的是看加速的营收/每股收益增长。如果营收加速与超大规模云厂商资本支出保持一致，那么该逻辑依然成立。 - 总之：我看到了 AI 需求/营收加速的迹象，超大规模云厂商资本支出是最重要的跟踪指标之一。 - 我猜我们会看到该主题广泛复苏。但我无法预测具体发生在哪一小时、哪一天或哪一周。

   英文原文

   I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
6. 北京时间 2026-07-29 02:48:55 个股论点 $GOOGL

   GOOGL上调资本支出指引后股价大跌，博主猜测是去杠杆所致。

   @wannabepanacea 我最近刚退出（市场），正在从两轮手术中恢复。鉴于 $GOOGL 上周上调了资本支出指引，这一跌幅至少可以说是令人惊讶。我需要去查一下加息概率，但我猜测这只是去杠杆。

   英文原文

   @wannabepanacea I've been out if it recently, just recovering from 2 rounds of surgery. Drop was been surprising to say the least given $GOOGL hiked capex guidance last week. Will need to check on rate hike odds, but my guess is just deleveraging.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
7. 北京时间 2026-06-26 23:56:32 杂谈

   摩根士丹利维持美联储年底前不加息的预测。

   摩根士丹利：维持其对美联储(Federal Reserve)年底前维持利率不变（不加息）的预测。 迈克尔·加彭(Michael Gapen)表示，自6月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议以来的新数据，使其对“不加息”的基准情景感到“略微更加安心”。 https://t.co/9OL7od94JP

   英文原文

   Morgan Stanley: Retained its forecast for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates through year-end (no rate hikes). Michael Gapen said incoming data since the June FOMC meeting has made it "marginally more comfortable" in its no-hike baseline. https://t.co/9OL7od94JP

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
8. 北京时间 2026-06-23 22:08:54 个股论点 $INTC$MU$TSM

   博主认为半导体股回调是明确买入机会，质疑加息叙事。

   就我个人而言，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM 的回调看起来是一个明确的买入机会。因为我们在没有任何新的实质性宏观经济数据（周四公布）的情况下，因诸如三次加息之类的 BS 叙事出现了大幅下跌。如果机构真的相信卖方关于三次加息的观点

   英文原文

   Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
9. 北京时间 2026-06-19 20:19:38 业绩复盘 $AAOI$AEHR$ALRIB$ARM$AXTI$EWY$HPS.A$INTC$IQE$LITE$LPK$META$MRVL$MU$NBIS$NVDA$RDDT$RPI$SIMO$SIVE$SNAP$SOI$TSEM$TTD$XLU

   博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。

   我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。

   英文原文

   I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
10. 北京时间 2026-05-22 22:14:47 方法论 $XLU

    称伊朗战争提高无降息概率，削弱公用事业顺风。

    回复 @plaza404_：我前阵子更新过，伊朗战争对 $XLU 造成了重大问题，因为它提高了没有降息的概率。 公用事业顺风很大一部分来自今年多次降息，而现在市场定价几乎为0。

    英文原文

    @plaza404_ I made an update awhile back that Iran War caused a major issue with $XLU in terms increasing odds of no rate cuts. Large part of the utilities tailwind was multiple rate cuts this year, which is now priced at 0 likely.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
11. 北京时间 2026-04-30 04:52:18 供应链分析 $115$125B$135B$145B$200B$31$35$AMZN$META$MSFT$TSM

    超大规模云厂商 capex 仍然很强

    我已经帮你把情况盯好了。 超大规模云厂商 capex 支出的 TLDR（除了 $TSM 之外的信号）。 来自 $MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的财报： 上游半导体供应链会继续起飞。 $META：2026 财年 capex 为 1150 亿至 1350 亿美元 修正后的 Q1 财报：capex 提高到 1250 亿至 1450 亿美元。 -> 更高的零部件价格（涨价） -> 激进的 AI 基础设施支出 -> 定制模型训练 $MSFT：实际为 319 亿美元，而不是（352.9 亿美元），但原因是供应链瓶颈，而不是资源不足。 我们还在等 $AMZN 的确认，不过他们今年年初的原始 capex 预期大约是 2000 亿美元，来自 Jassy 的备忘录。 所以你可以放心，所有半导体供应链名字在下个季度大概率还是会继续起飞，因为有太多 capex 被灌进去。 然后还有新任美联储主席，他对 AI 和降息都非常积极，而 Jerome 在后面保持平稳（市场大概会喜欢这个）。

    英文原文

    I've monitored the situation for you. TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM). From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings: Upstream semi supply chains go brrr. $META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised. -> Higher component prices (price hikes) -> Aggressive AI infra spending -> Custom Model Training $MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources. Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year. So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them. Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
12. 北京时间 2026-04-28 16:54:11 方法论

    更看重基本面胜过宏观

    @Muraum_ 对，我对宏观环境很敏感，尤其是降息概率这些东西。 但我还是更倾向于关注基本面，因为除非供应链里真的出现了有本质破坏性的事情，否则基本面通常跑赢宏观。 例如…… https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8

    英文原文

    @Muraum_ Oh yeah I'm acutely aware of macro environment, especially rate cut odds and such. But i try and focus more on fundamentals more since they outperform macro unless there's something genuinely disruptive in supply chains. eg. https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
13. 北京时间 2026-04-28 01:36:28 供应链分析 $MRVL$POET$SIVE$XLU

    激光和封装是两码事

    这显然不是一回事。激光和封装在光学供应链里是两个实质上不同的环节。 如果我的 thesis 失效了，我会像当初对 $XLU 和降息那样坦白说出来。 但我对 $SIVE 仍然非常看多，因为我还是认为 $MRVL 会为了 Celestial 直接从他们那里买，然后把 $POET 的封装流程垂直整合掉。

    英文原文

    It's clearly not. Laser and packaging are two materially different parts of optical supply chains. I would be transparent if the thesis breaks like I did with $XLU and rate cuts. But I'm incredibly bullish on $SIVE since I still think $MRVL just buys directly from them for Celestial and vertically integrates the $POET packaging process.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
14. 北京时间 2026-04-09 18:27:36 个股论点 $AMKR$AMZN$ARM$AVGO$CEG$COHR$CRCL$CVX$DRAM$FN$GOOGL$HIMS$HOOD$IBIT$INTC$JBL$LITE$LPTH$META$MOG.A$MP$MRVL$MSFT$NBIS$NEE$POWL$RKLB$SMTC$TSEM$TSM$VPG$XLU

    博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域

    今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。

    英文原文

    Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
15. 北京时间 2026-04-08 13:38:18 业绩复盘 $EWY$MSFT$RDDT$HOOD$ETH$IBIT

    认为韩国半导体回暖，且在降息预期升温下，跌深的资产可能值得回补。

    三星和 SK 海力士都重新回到接近历史高点，$EWY 也跟着走强。 把一些因为宏观跌得很惨的名字买回来，比如 $MSFT（-21%）、$RDDT（-36%）或 $HOOD（-31%）…… 或者像这里的 $ETH 或 $IBIT 之类，也许都不算最糟糕的选择。 尤其是今天衍生品市场把 2-3 次降息的概率又推高了。 看起来市场和衍生品这次真的相信 TACO Tuesday 了。

    英文原文

    Samsung, SK Hynix both back close to ATHs with $EWY following suit. Buying back some names that crashed from macro like $MSFT (-21%), $RDDT(-36%), or $HOOD (-31%)… Or others like $ETH or $IBIT here might not be the worst idea. Especially as rate cut odds (2-3) spiked on derivative markets today. Looks like markets and derivatives really believe in TACO Tuesday this time.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
16. 北京时间 2026-03-31 08:23:45 供应链分析 $AAPL$AMZN$AXTI$GOOGL$META$MP$ORCL$TSLA$USAR

    AI数据中心供应链严重依赖亚洲，中东冲突加剧流动性风险，稀土应成美国国安优先事项

    Hi Ron，这个话题分为两个不同的部分： 1. 超大规模云服务商（$ORCL、$META、$AMZN）：他们的支出超过了盈利水平（$GOOGL 是罕见的例外，而 $AAPL 相对而言支出并不多）。 因此市场担心这并没有转化为实质性的收入。 尤其是像 Oracle 这样负债累累的公司，降息是使其稍微可持续的重要因素（如果你看债务利息，数目非常庞大），而降息既能推动产能扩张，也能带来实质性的成本节省。 由于伊朗战争和原油价格上涨，原定2026年的降息预期已经落空。 雪上加霜的是，人们担心他们的 AI 数据中心建设供应链会中断。 如果你看看他们的 AI 数据中心部件产地： - 来自台湾 - 来自韩国 - 来自日本 这是一个全球化的供应链。 虽然美国看起来没问题，因为它在石油、液化天然气、氦气和其他半导体供应链所需的资源方面是绝缘的。 但我们的亚洲合作伙伴并不处于长期冲突中。 所以当你看到亚洲那些规模较小、专业化的公司时，它们正在苦苦挣扎。 这种影响会层层放大，一直传导到终端的亚马逊网络服务 AI 数据中心（成本上升、供应短缺）。 2. AI 整体而言：投资者对此非常乐观。 问题在于实现路径，而美国在表面上看起来被中国卡住了。 - 美国投入过多，而中国和其他国家正在蒸馏我们的最新模型（需要 KYC 端点管控），坐享其成。 - 随着 AI 项目的规模扩大，它正变得越来越依赖中国公司。 我认为这是因为美国缺乏稀土，这应该成为我们的头号国家安全优先事项。 这是制造新一代 AI 硬件、机器人供应链和太空探索所需的。 这些资源都由中国和俄罗斯控制。即使是领先的"西方"公司，我已发现它们仍然主要依赖中国/俄罗斯。 这是我们确保前沿项目安全最大的漏洞之一。 如果你看光子学（AI 硬件如何通过光加速），我们没有西方的供应链来满足需求。主要材料来源是中国的 $AXTI 和中国的 Vital 两家公司，然后流转到日本或其他公司，最后进入美国。 如果你看我们的人形机器人项目（我们如何将 AI 带入现实世界），$TSLA Optimus 的所有躯体都是在中国制造的。 美国供应链缺乏制造这些组件所需的稀土，因为成本太高。 3. 中东地区的冲突 近期下跌的一个重要原因是流动性问题。我们在阿联酋、中东的合作伙伴主要在为私募市场提供资金（想想 OpenAI），他们大量的支出流向 AI 市场。 他们也是从 Meta 到微软等科技七巨头最大的投资者之一。 如果他们的油田继续受到干扰，他们可能不得不从美国市场撤出流动性。 这既影响这些公司在 AI 上的支出能力，也会导致美国市场的抛售下跌。 如果有takeaway（要点）的话：请把稀土列为美国头号国家安全优先事项。特朗普总统已经投资了 $USAR、$MP 和几个单独的公司。 但还有许多更多至关重要的、尚未盈利的公司，它们对于制造 AI、自动驾驶汽车和机器人都是必需的。我们需要打破对中国/俄罗斯的依赖。

    英文原文

    Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
17. 北京时间 2026-03-28 22:15:52 个股论点 $CRWV$IREN$META$MSFT$NBIS$NVDA

    对比三只Neocloud股票，认为$NBIS是最佳选择，$CRWV融资结构致命，$IREN长期增值但短期散户不利

    我对$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV以及当前Neocloud市场的看法。 其中一家将在5年内成为下一个AWS： 我的猜测是Nebius。 这不是赢家通吃（DigitalOcean与亚马逊并存），但显然有更优越的结构和可能的赢家。 不利因素： ->伊朗冲突导致降息的可能性很低。 ->更广泛的市场似乎不愿意资助CapEx周期。但又想从中获益。 关于$IREN： 我们理解，4.5GW = X收入。但谁来资助GPU？ 无论谁现在买入$6,000,000,000的ATM。 赢家将是稀释完成后进入的任何人。 现实是，如果没有colo模式，他们没有足够的资金来通过GPU货币化其容量。 而且他们没有找到其他融资方式，因此由于一个会买入他们出售的任何东西的邪教社区，他们选择了ATM。 然而，我同意长期来看这是增值的。只是对现在买入的散户没那么有利。 关于$CRWV： 他们做对了一切... $NVDA支持。超大规模客户... 但他们融资完全错了。现在，超过$1.5B+的年度债务利息正在吞噬Coreweave的利润并侵蚀FCF。 就像信用卡债务一样，Coreweave找到工作来偿还债务，但最终债务利息太高，工作收入不足以覆盖债务和扩张。 如果有任何公司倒闭，$CRWV是第一个因巨额债务和利息而倒下的。 关于$NBIS： 他们正在尽可能做好... $NVDA提供$2B资助capex。 可转债发行（可转债做空对冲对短期价格上涨不利）。 但这是比Coreweave更好的融资结构，利息低得多。 他们现在有来自$META和$MSFT的约$460亿+订单积压，这两家是最盈利的超大规模云服务商之一，且没有像Coreweave那样直接关联OpenAI的风险传染。 与其他公司不同的是；他们的其他公司也有增值（Clickhouse股权增值：avride机器人出租车规模化；toloka三位数增长）。 从我来看：Nebius是明显的赢家。 然而，当前宏观环境不利于整个板块的短期持有者，指数下跌7%。 尤其是如果他们在ATM活跃时买入的话。 长期来看，当他们规模化后获益时（例如$NBIS 2026年Q4，是的，甚至$IREN），收益将是巨大的。

    英文原文

    My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
18. 北京时间 2026-03-28 10:36:47 杂谈 $XLU$EWY

    认为能源冲击带来货币贬值和交易扰动，伊朗局势让自己做空 XLU。

    这是原油 / 能源飙升后引发的货币贬值，把交易结构搞乱了。 伊朗战争也把我做多 $XLU 的仓位搞乱了，因为现在市场已经不再计价降息了。 伊朗带来的不确定性太大了。说实话，如果特朗普停止升级，你会看到 $EWY 出现巨大反转，但你不会在海力士上看到同样的变化。 但现在到底政府会怎么做，已经是抛硬币了。

    英文原文

    It’s currency devaluation after crude/energy spikes messing up the trade. The War in Iran also messed up my $XLU long since there’s no rate cuts being priced in anymore. Again too much uncertainty with Iran. Idk, you get a massive reversal with $EWY that you don’t with SK Hynix if Trump stops escalations. But at this point it’s a coin flip on what the administration does.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
19. 北京时间 2026-03-21 10:40:16 个股论点 $MU

    认为 MU 之所以今年仍跑赢大盘，是因为利润太强；若没有宏观冲击，本应更高。

    @Indomitable912 是的，你的直觉是对的。$MU 今年到现在还涨了 34%+，而整个市场在下跌，原因就是他们利润实在太强。 如果不是伊朗战争、而市场又在定价降息，它现在可能已经涨到 60%+ 了。

    英文原文

    @Indomitable912 Yes your intuition is correct. The reason why $MU is still up 34%+ YTD while the entire market is tanking. Is exactly because they're making so much profit. If there weren't a War in Iran and markets were pricing in rate cuts, it would might be up 60%+ by now.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
20. 北京时间 2026-03-10 00:09:03 个股论点 $XLU

    $XLU 走势未变，仍是电网/AI/降息驱动的两年期交易。

    @RoshiPosts $XLU 的情况没有任何变化，尤其是过去两到三周内。这是一个关于电网现代化、AI 推理和降息的两年期无聊交易。

    英文原文

    @RoshiPosts Nothing’s changed about $XLU, especially 2-3 weeks in. It’s a boring 2 year trade on power grid modernization, ai inference, and rate cuts.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
21. 北京时间 2026-03-08 23:30:06 供应链分析 $COST$EWY$GOOGL$LMT$NOC$TSM

    油价/LNG/氦气恐慌被夸大，SK海力士/三星高利润率可吸收成本，逢低买入。

    关于韩国综合指数(KOSPI) | $EWY (SK海力士 / 三星) 的情绪， 原油 / 液化天然气(LNG) / 氦气要么： 扰乱供应或压缩利润的说法被夸大了。 对SK海力士、三星的供应链中断和能源成本威胁是耸人听闻的噪音。 原因如下： 1. 原油： 如果油价上涨31%并浮动至120美元/桶的可能情景： 在这种情况下，油价对SK海力士和韩国内存股几乎没有实质性影响。 通过挂钩油价的LNG/JKM价格，韩国股票面临能源成本上升，主要影响那些仅靠5%到10%微薄利润生存的公司。 然而，鉴于内存价格飙升且三星在Q2将NAND价格翻倍，韩国电力公社(KEPCO) 70%的费率上调对三星/SK海力士几乎没有实质性影响。 根据披露的财务数据，SK海力士的年度电费超过1万亿韩元（DIGITIMES报道，约7.5亿美元）。相对于FY2025年97.15万亿韩元的收入，这约占收入的1-2%。 SK海力士在2025年Q4实现了58%的营业利润率。在此背景下，能源成本冲击很小： 如果我们模拟能源成本增加50%： - 对SK海力士季度营业利润(19.17万亿韩元)的影响：~1340亿-~1460亿韩元 (0.76%) - 对三星DS季度营业利润(16.4万亿韩元)的影响：~4070亿韩元 (2.4%) 每次50%的能源成本激增会使SK海力士的利润率减少约0.7%，三星的营业利润率减少2.4%。 分析师预测SK海力士在2026年传统DRAM上的利润率可能达到70%以上。即使能源成本增加100%，也不会对韩国半导体营业利润率构成实质性威胁。 然而，这对营业利润率为5-10%的低利润率公司是实质性的。 输家：传统重工业（钢铁、基础化学品、普通平板玻璃）。 赢家：三星/SK海力士。 主要风险是供应链的二阶效应，如原材料成本增加。这很难建模，但在一个例子中： 一家工业公司迫使原材料（化学品、特种气体）价格上涨30%，这对晶圆厂的影响微乎其微。 材料约占半导体销售成本(COGS)的15-20%，因此从数学上讲，材料成本激增30%只会使SK海力士的营业利润率再减少约2%。 一个打印70%利润率（并提高价格）的寡头可以轻松吸收3-4%的直接（公用事业）和间接（材料）能源逆风。 在大多数情况下，成本可能会通过NAND/DRAM价格上涨转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。 在油价上涨3倍或5倍的极端情况下。 油价上涨数百倍的主要影响是两个因素： - 全球宏观经济冲击，导致全球通胀（影响从$GOOGL到$COST的每一家公司）。 - 韩元(KRW) USD/KRW汇率崩盘。 持续高油价导致的韩元贬值是一个真实的二阶风险，但历史上韩国内存出口商受益于韩元贬值带来的收入端优势。三星/SK海力士的大部分销售以美元计价，而成本以韩元计价。因此，韩元走弱实际上有利于出口商的利润率，部分抵消了能源成本逆风。 但在油价上涨5倍的极端情况下，那个末日世界里唯一的做多标的只有原油本身、像$LMT / $NOC这样的国防承包商、美国国内能源生产商和美元。 这不太可能发生。 财经媒体和算法可能会恐慌，但如果原油从91美元涨到120美元且KEPCO提高能源成本： 数据显示这对三星 / SK海力士几乎没有影响，主要影响的是那些营业利润率微薄的玩家。 2. LNG： 如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将不受影响。 媒体一直在引用霍尔木兹海峡+流向中国、印度、韩国和日本的LNG流量。但如果我们查看韩国的贸易数据，这只是其总进口的一小部分。 大部分进口通过非霍尔木兹海峡路线到达，例如澳大利亚 (24.6%)、美国 (12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚 (~20%) 和俄罗斯/萨哈林 (~4.6%)。其余部分由来自尼日利亚、秘鲁、文莱、巴布亚新几内亚等次要来源填补。 2024年82%的进口是挂钩油价的长期合同，正如我们上面建模的那样，能源成本增加会使运营支出(opex)每增加50%受损1-2%，但鉴于DRAM/NAND价格上涨和营业利润率达到70%以上，这只会造成很小的缺口。 即使如此，成本也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商。 韩国从2022年吸取了教训并多元化了来源，LNG供应中断的影响很小。主要担忧是油价影响LNG价格上涨。 3. 氦气： SK海力士声明：“已确保多样化的供应链和充足的氦气库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气]影响。” 现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经多元化了供应链以应对外部事件。 氦气对半导体供应链至关重要，但媒体叙事是耸人听闻的。尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明称公司[SK海力士]不可能受到影响时。 _ 但对于三星/SK海力士等韩国股票，围绕石油/LNG/氦气的恐惧看起来与现实脱节： 因氦气和KEPCO费率上调而抛售SK海力士的算法是在进行错误的计算。这从根本上说是一个非供应链问题。 主要威胁是石油和能源成本对全球宏观经济冲击的影响，影响从消费品到通胀的一切。 3月3日“黑色星期二”暴跌使KOSPI下跌7.2%，SK海力士单日下跌11.5%，正是以这些能源安全恐惧为主要催化剂。当然，杠杆强制平仓火上浇油。 然而，基本面与价格走势之间的脱节就是交易机会。如果利润率真的受到威胁，抛售就是合理的。 但，抛售在一天内摧毁的价值比几十年能源成本上涨可能造成的还要多。 数学不支持恐惧的事实正是为什么韩国是买入的理由，因为市场正在因情绪而非结构性扩张的盈利能力（尽管石油/能源成本增加）而抛售。

    英文原文

    The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either: Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown. The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise. Here's why: 1. Crude Oil: The a likely scenario if oil prices increase 31% and oil floats to $120/bbl: In this case, the effect on oil has almost no material impact on SK Hynix and South Korean memory equities. There are increased energy costs via oil-pegged LNG/JKM prices on Korean equities, mainly for companies surviving on razor-thin 5% to 10% margins. However, a KEPCO 70% rate hike has little material affect on Samsung/SK Hynix, given memory prices have soared with Samsung doubling NAND prices Q2. From disclosed financial from, their SK Hynix's annual electricity bill exceeds ₩1 trillion per DIGITIMES (~$750M). Which against FY2025 revenue of ₩97.15 trillion represents roughly 1–2% of revenue. SK Hynix posted a 58% operating margin in Q4 2025. Against this backdrop, the energy cost shock is small: If we model a 50% increase in energy costs: - Hit to SK Hynix quarterly OP (₩19.17T): ~₩134 billion-~₩146 billion (0.76%) - Hit to Samsung DS quarterly OP (₩16.4T): ~₩407 billion (2.4%) Every 50% energy cost spike would shave roughly .7% off SK Hynix margins and 2.4% off Samsung operating margins. Analysts project SK Hynix margins could reach 70%+ on conventional DRAM in 2026. Energy costs do not meaningfully threaten Korean semiconductor operating margins, even if they were to increase by 100%. However, this is material to companies with low operating margins of 5-10% The Losers: Traditional heavy manufacturing (steel, basic chemicals, standard flat glass). The Winners: Samsung/SK Hynix. The main risk is second-order effects on supply chains such as increased material costs. This is very hard to model, but in an example where: an industrial company forces 30% price hikes on raw materials (chemicals, specialty gases), it barely dents the fabs. Materials are roughly 15-20% of semiconductor COGS, so mathematically, a 30% spike in material costs only shaves an additional ~2% off SK Hynix's operating margins. A combined 3-4% direct (utilities) and indirect (materials) energy headwind is easily absorbed by an oligopoly printing 70% margins (and increasing prices). In majority of cases, the costs likely get passed down to hyperscalers through NAND/DRAM price hikes. In the very worst case scenario of oil prices increasing 3x or 5x. The main affect on oil increasing hundreds of percent are two factors: - Global macroeconomic shock, causing global inflation (affecting every single company, from $GOOGL to $COST). - KRW (South korean Won) USD/KRW exchange rate blowout. KRW depreciation from sustained high oil is a real second order risk, but historically Korean memory exporters benefit from won weakness on the revenue side. The majority of Samsung/SK Hynix sales are dollar denominated wheras costs are won denominated. So a weaker KRW is actually margin accretive for exporters, which partially offsets the energy cost headwind. But in an extreme case of oil prices hiking 5x, the only longs in that apocalyptic world are crude oil itself, defense contractors like $LMT / $NOC, domestic US energy producers, and the US Dollar. This is unlikely to happen. The financial media and algorithms will likely panic, but , if crude oil goes from $91 to $120 and KEPCO increases energy costs: The data shows there's little affect on Samsung / SK Hynix in specific, and the main impact are on players with razer-thin operating margins. 2. LNG: If the Hormuz closed, the majority of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. The media has been quoting Hormuz + LNG flows going to China, INdia, SK, and Japan. But if we look at the trade data from South Korea, that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Majority of imports arrive via Hormuz free routes, eg. Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then the rest filled in with minor sources from Nigeria, Peru, Brunei, PNG, etc. The 82% of 2024 important were long term contracts that were oil-indexed, and as we've modeled above, increasing energy costs would hurt opex by 1-2% per 50% increase, but given DRAM/NAND price hikes and operating margins hitting 70%+, this would make a very little dent. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources, and there's little impact on LNG supply disruption. The main concern is oil impacting hiking of LNG. 3. Helium: SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. Helium is critical to semiconductor supply chains, but the media narrative is sensational. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. _ But to South Korean equities in Samsung/SK Hynix, fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality: The algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue. The main threat is oil and energy costs on global macroeconomic shock affecting everything from consumer goods to inflation. March 3 "Black Tuesday" crash dropped KOSPI dropped 7.2% and SK Hynix fell 11.5% in a single session on exactly these energy security fears as the main catalyst. Of course, forced liquidations from leverage added fuel to the fire. However, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the trade. If margins were actually threatened, the selloff would be justified. But, the sell-off destroyed more value in one day than DECADES of hiked energy cost increases could have. The fact that the math doesn't support the fear is precisely why it's Korea is a buy, as markets are selling off on emotion rather than looking at the structural expanding profitability despite increasing oil/energy costs.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
22. 北京时间 2026-03-07 00:16:58 个股论点 $XLU

    XLU是等待降息与AI推理爆发的两年期长线标的。

    @bilbooo__ 是的，$XLU 是一个为期两年的长线布局，等待降息、电网现代化以及推理需求爆发。如果某件事是多年期的……可能要求你等待超过两周。

    英文原文

    @bilbooo__ Yeah $XLU is a 2 year long waiting for rate cut, grid modernization, and inference to take off. If something is a multi-year long... Might require you to wait more than 2 weeks.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
23. 北京时间 2026-03-06 05:48:55 方法论 $CRCL$IREN

    技术分析仅是辅助，股价由基本面、宏观和催化剂决定。

    我在$CRCL上市前禁售期股价$200时就说过这话。 现在面对$IREN在$60亿稀释后，我要再次重申以证明一个观点： 单纯的技术分析(TA)和图表分析，纯粹是占星术和骗人的鬼话。 价格极其多维，主要遵循三个因素： - 基本面（营收、增长、板块、利润率、利润） - 催化剂（财报、导致基本面重大变化的事件） - 宏观（战争、降息、流动性事件） 如果你读过我的任何帖子，我会尝试将这三者结合起来解释。 然而，我在X上到处看到那些付费墙后的技术分析(TA)绘图者，只发图表，对股票毫无基本面理解。 如果一家市值$130亿的公司发行$60亿新股并在公开市场全部抛售。 或者像(Webull)这样SPAC上市后市值$500亿的公司，原本只有1%的流通股交易，现在全部释放。 基本面的转变和公司行动绝对会摧毁任何图表形态。 股票遵循基本面、宏观和催化剂。 技术分析(TA)在极其多维的环境中只是一个有用的指标。 单靠它，那些向你兜售XYZ支撑位->ABC突破的人完全不知道自己在说什么。

    英文原文

    I’ve said this before with $CRCL pre-IPO lockup at $200. And I’ll say it again with $IREN post-$6B dilution to prove a point: TA and Charting alone, is pure astrology and snake oil. Prices are extremely multifaceted, they primarily follow 3 things: - Fundamentals (revenue, growth, sector, margins, profit) - Catalysts (earnings, events that lead to material fundamental changes) - Macro (War, Rate cuts, Liquidity events) If you ever read any of my posts I try to explain these three together. However, I keep seeing paywall TA drawers on X everywhere that post charts alone, showing zero fundamental understanding on stocks. If a company is valued at $13B issues $6B new shares then sells all of that on the open market. Or if a company like (Webull) valued at $50B post SPAC IPO only trades off 1% of their float then releases it all. Fundamental shifts and corporate actions will absolutely obliterate any pattern. Stocks follow fundamentals, macro, and catalysts. TA’s are only a helpful indicator, in an extremely multifaceted environment. By itself, people selling you XYZ support -> ABC breakouts have 0 clue what they’re talking about.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
24. 北京时间 2026-03-03 02:21:58 个股论点 $AAOI$AXTI$LASR$RDDT$RPI$XLU

    看好光子、存储、电力及国防板块，分享具体标的及轮动策略。

    光子学、存储、电力和国防可能是目前势头最强的前3大板块。 其他如先进封装或散热等板块，恕我直言，你无法获得像前四大板块那样严重的瓶颈效应或回报。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 是我最看好的两个光子学标的。 三星和 SK 海力士是存储领域的两大首选。 关于电力，我之前已经说过 $XLU，受益于降息+电网现代化+超大规模云厂商推理需求。 然后是国防，可能是 $LASR 等，因为伊朗冲突是最大的催化剂之一。（并持仓直到和平时期到来） 我通常轮动操作约30只股票，所以像 $RDDT 这样的股票我在做波段交易，而像 $RPI 这样我之前提过的股票，我只是作为低仓位的备用持仓，以防我的逻辑被证实正确。 其中很大一部分是在顺势而为。

    英文原文

    Photonics, Memory, Power, and Defense are probably the top 3 momentum sectors right now. There’s others like advanced packaging or thermal but you won’t get to the severe bottleneck or returns as top 4 imo. $AAOI and $AXTI are top two favorite photonic plays. Samsung and SK Hynix are top two memory plays. Power I’ve already said $XLU from rate cuts + grid modernization + hyperscaler inference. Then defense probably $LASR and others for a bit since the Iran conflict is one of the biggest catalysts. (And hanging around until there’s peacetime) I usually rotate around 30 or so stocks, so one others like $RDDT I’ve been swing trading and others I’ve mentioned in the past like $RPI I just hold on the side with less concentration in case my thesis turns out right. Large part of it is riding the momentum.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
25. 北京时间 2026-03-01 21:43:23 个股论点

    建议等待更好入场点，长期看好AI推理与降息驱动的上涨。

    @Edu4rdo26 如果你打算买入，建议等待更好的入场时机。1个月10.42%的回报率已经超过了其长期正常回报水平。但从长期来看，我预计其方向将向上，并有望迎来由AI推理(AI Inference)需求爆发和降息驱动的“一生一次”级别的行情。

    英文原文

    @Edu4rdo26 If you do, probably wait for a better entry. 10.42% 1M return is already more than what it would normally return across a long time. But long term I expect it to be directionally up with a once-a-lifetime type run from AI inference usage and rate cuts

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
26. 北京时间 2026-03-01 21:22:41 个股论点 $GRID

    聚焦$GRID在美国电网现代化及降息中的机会，并澄清时间范围。

    @cafeaulaitfr $GRID 是全球性的，我专注于美国电力/电网现代化与降息。此外，日期仅涵盖至今年9月，而非2028年。

    英文原文

    @cafeaulaitfr $GRID is global, I’m focusing on US power/grid modernization coupled with rate cuts. Also the dates only go out to September this year instead of 2028

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
27. 北京时间 2026-02-27 23:31:42 个股论点 $COIN$CRCL

    Circle 估值具吸引力，看好 USDC 印钞能力并长期持有。

    $CRCL 不属于软件板块。由于监管严格，你无法通过“氛围编程”(vibe code) 来开发基于美国的稳定币。此次抛售主要源于更广泛的数字资产情绪、《清晰法案》(Clarity Act) 对利率的影响（这类似于交易所如 $COIN 中人们存放 USDC 存款的情况），以及潜在的降息预期。我发现尽管股价下跌超过 50%，流通供应量仍保持在约 700 亿美元以上，因此认为 $54 的 $CRCL 极具吸引力。话虽如此，我长期持有 Circle，因为我确实认为 USDC 是一台印钞机。

    英文原文

    $CRCL is not put in the software bucket. You can't vibe code US based stablecoins because it's highly regulated. The selloff was mainly do to broader digital asset sentiment, clarity act interest rate (proxies to exchanges like $COIN where ppl keep USDC deposits), and potential rate cuts. I just found circulating supply was the same above ~$70B despite the stock selling off 50%+ and found $CRCL at $54 to be highly attractive. That being said I am long Circle for the long run because I do think USDC is a money printer.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
28. 北京时间 2026-02-27 04:06:27 个股论点 $XLU

    推荐$XLU作为电网现代化受益标的，提示注意隐含波动率定价。

    $XLU 是我看好能源/电网现代化、降息预期以及推理/训练大规模用量的首选多头标的。进入这些交易无需匆忙，公用事业和电力板块通常像恐龙一样移动缓慢。但如果你进行大幅跳跃式建仓，请确保隐含波动率(IV)定价在 14-16% 的正确区间，而非虚高的行权价。

    英文原文

    $XLU was my long of choice for energy/grid modernization, coupled with rate cuts and mass usage from inference/training. There’s no rush to enter these trades, utilities and power typically move like dinosaurs. But if you’re doing leaps make sure IV is priced correctly at 14-16%, not inflated strikes.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
29. 北京时间 2026-02-26 01:40:46 个股论点 $XLU

    看好$XLU因AI电力需求及降息带来的重估机会。

    人们可能没意识到，在全球移动最缓慢的板块之一上，这一波行情有多大。 $XLU 一周涨幅 2.56%。 尤其是隐含波动率(IV)仅为 14% 的情况下。 自 2000 年以来，无聊的电力/电网板块（不含股息）的历史总回报率为 79.73%。 期权价值轻松实现两位数甚至三位数的增长。 话虽如此，如果 IV 偏高（例如超过 17.5%），建议避开。 我的论点（Thesis）是：由于降息、AI 推理（Inference）使用以及电网/电力现代化，这是全球最无聊板块的千载难逢的重估机会。 希望这是我论点开始兑现的开端。

    英文原文

    Don’t think people realize how big this move on one of the Slowest. Moving. Sectors. In the world is. 2.56% in a week on $XLU. Especially if IV is 14%. All time return since year 2000 is 79.73% for the boring power/grid sector (not including dividends). Option values are easily up double digits or triple digits. That being said if IV is elevated (eg. above 17.5%) probably stay away. My thesis was this was the once in a lifetime rerating on the most boring sector in the world due to rate cuts, AI inference usage, and grid/power modernization. Hopefully this is the start my thesis playing out.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
30. 北京时间 2026-02-23 01:10:27 供应链分析 $AMZN$MSFT$NVDA$TSLA$VST$XLU

    电力成美国AI最大瓶颈，看好$XLU因降息及基建资本支出重估。

    美国AI最大的瓶颈： 电力与电网容量。 最近，美国各大AI公司的CEO都反复强调这一点。 以下是从$MSFT到$AMZN的名单： 黄仁勋（$NVDA）：“在最底层：能源。中国的能源总量是我们的两倍，而我们的经济体量比他们大。这对我来说毫无道理……没有能源，你就无法发展任何新产业。”（CSIS活动） 埃隆·马斯克（$TSLA / xAI）：“价值数十亿美元的最先进AI硬件。处于闲置状态。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为电力不足，无法运行它们。”（最近播客） 山姆·阿尔特曼（OpenAI）：“满足全球AI需求最终需要数百吉瓦的电力。谁控制了电力，谁就控制了AI价值链。”（最近采访） 安迪·贾西（$AMZN）：“[我们]最大的单一制约因素是电力。我不相信我们在几个季度内就能完全解决我们所需的需求容量。”（亚马逊财报电话会议） 萨提亚·纳德拉（$MSFT）：“我们现在面临的最大问题不是算力过剩，而是电力。也就是能否在靠近电力的地方快速完成建设。如果你做不到，你可能会有一堆无法插电使用的芯片库存。”（BG2 Pod） 每一位美国AI实验室的CEO都在告诉你美国人工智能的主要瓶颈是什么： 发电和扩大电网。 因此，我们可能会看到$XLU中无聊的公用事业和电力生产商因为以下原因被强烈重估： 1. AI推理+训练极端扩张以及对GW级数据中心的需求。 2. 超大规模云厂商向该领域投入极端资本支出。 3. 降息顺风。 最重要的是： 作为一个国家，美国必须重建其电网以赢得地缘政治军备竞赛。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 如果我要在1年内将$10万变成$100万。 我会选择：$XLU 2年期虚值看涨期权 2026年是现代历史上市场首次同时具备： - 利率下降 - AI推理+建设 通过映射，XLU有潜在~40%的涨幅（虚值期权1000%+）。 这是我的宏观论点： 1. 降息 当美联储在不引发衰退的情况下降息时，公用事业债务成本降低，机构将低收益现金转向公用事业股息。 这导致估值倍数立即扩张： 1995年：标普公用事业板块在1995年回报+31.3%，1996年再+12.1% - 累计回报~47% 2019年中周期降息：结果：XLU在那一年产生了+25.9%的总回报 标准的软着陆降息周期自然映射到25%到30%的基准回报。而我们要进入2026年的新降息周期。 2. 基础设施超级周期资本支出 基础设施资本支出为该板块带来复合盈利增长。继2000年代初之后，公用事业进入了一个巨大的资本支出周期以现代化老化的电网基础设施。 因为他们不断支出并扩大其保证费率基数，XLU在2004年回报+23.5%，2005年+16.3%，2006年+20.8%，2007年+18.4%。 然而这一次： 2026年8000多亿美元的AI建设使得2004年的电网现代化看起来像零钱。 所以你有来自#1降息的估值倍数扩张（+15%到+20%）。来自#2资本支出历史数据的每股收益增长（+18%到+20%）。仅从历史教训来看。 但2026年是历史上AI使用最独特的时刻。 仅从我自己的模型预测来看，所有以前的估计可能都因AI极端扩张而错误（例如DOE/LBNL预测）： 超大规模云厂商资本支出流入（支出）（亚马逊、微软、Meta、谷歌、甲骨文）到数据中心估计： 2024年：2200亿美元 2025年：3500亿美元 2026年：5500亿美元 2027年：8000亿美元 2028年：1.2万亿美元（4年增长：+445%） 美国数据中心电力使用： 2024年：190 TWh 2025年：280 TWh 2026年：430 TWh 2027年：650 TWh 2028年：980 TWh（4年增长：+415%） AI消耗的总美国电力百分比： 2024年：美国电网的4.5% 2025年：6.6% 2026年：8.2-10.2% 2027年：13.4-15.4% 2028年：21.3-23.3% 劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室和能源部似乎在AI使用上偏离了（他们预测到2028年约为12%） 物理电网容量需求： 2024年：18 GW 2025年：35 GW 2026年：65 GW 2027年：105 GW 2028年：160 GW 基本上你可以看到2026年到2028年是拐点，而2024-2025年是爬坡的缓慢年份。 然后是独立公司的“绝望溢价”。因为电网容量已售罄，科技巨头向公用事业支付巨额溢价以插队。例如PJM互联（弗吉尼亚“数据中心巷”），容量价格从2024年的每兆瓦日28.92美元飙升至2026/2027年令人难以置信的329.17美元。 $VST或Constellation是ETF中独立电力生产商的大权重。 纵观全局，你可以看到从2026年（现在）到2028年的极端扩张，以及用于建设基础设施的极端资本支出，与往年相比。 2026年是现代市场历史上第一次所有因素同时为无聊的电网/电力板块发力，AI是最大的顺风。 正如埃隆所引用的：“价值数十亿美元的最先进硬件。处于闲置状态。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为电力不足，无法运行它们”。 再次强调，2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值，由于AI和做市商已将历史隐含波动率（极度平坦~14%-16%）计入虚值看涨期权。 我们看到AI推理（超出之前的测量）以及训练（根据OpenAI今天的报告）的爆发。 所以地球上最无聊的板块（电力/电网），可能会因为超大规模云厂商/政府支出用于电网改进 -> AI推理/训练的极端电力消耗 -> 降息和其他因素，成为主要反弹的起点。 这只是我的个人论点，期权带有风险并放大下行风险。这些也是我自己的预测，不确定是否会超过或低于它们。 但基本上： 2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值。 美国的新瓶颈是电力。 来自AI的极端需求，极端资本支出，降息： $XLU看起来是最好的暴露交易。 时间会证明这是否正确与否。

    英文原文

    The biggest United States AI bottleneck: Power and Grid Capacity. This has been echoed by the CEOs of every major US AI company recently. Here's the list from $MSFT to $AMZN: Jensen Huang ( $NVDA ): "At the lowest level: energy. China has twice the amount of energy we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. It makes no sense to me... There are no new industries you can grow without energy." (CSIS event) Elon Musk ( $TSLA / xAI): "Billions of dollars of the most advanced AI hardware ever built. Sitting dark. Not because the chips don’t work. Because there isn’t enough electricity to run them." (Recent Podcast) Sam Altman (OpenAI): "Meeting global AI demand will eventually require hundreds of gigawatts of power. Whoever controls power controls the AI value chain." (Recent Interview) Andy Jassy ( $AMZN ): "[Our] single biggest constraint is power. I don't believe that we will have fully resolved the amount of capacity we need for the demand that we have in a couple of quarters." (Amazon Earnings Call) Satya Nadella ( $MSFT ): "The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's power. It's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough close to power. So, if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in." (BG2 Pod) You have every single CEO of American AI labs telling you what the major bottlenecks are for US Artificial Intelligence: Generating the Energy, and expanding the Grid. So, we might see boring utilities and power producers in $XLU be strongly re-rated because of: 1. AI inference + training extreme ramp and demand for GW-scale DCs. 2. Hyperscaler extreme capex pouring into the sector. 3. Rate Cut tailwinds. And most of all. That fact that: The United States as a country has to rebuild its grid to win a geopolitical arms race.

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