$AAOI
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
-
公布曝光收益并称将捐给救助机构。
如果你好奇的话： 1.07894491亿次（1亿+）曝光，收入4649美元！ 所有这些钱都会捐给犬只救助，之后会做大额捐赠！ 大约是每救助一只狗600美元，所以它会随着 Serenity 粉丝数量按比例扩大！ 我也相信要把我从 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 上赚到的所有利润……
原推 ↗英文原文
If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI https://t.co/MqFWfvTCgH
-
提醒方向正确也可能短期择时错误，应避免高杠杆短线。
你们这些在 $RDDT 上两天红盘后就亏99%的人是怎么做到的？ 只是持有 $AAOI 或 $MRVL 这类本来就高 beta 的个股，有那么难吗？ 你可以在方向上判断正确，但短期时点错了。 多一周或一个月，差别会非常大。
原推 ↗英文原文
How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
-
列出其偏好的CPO/光子学供应链标的。
$SIVE 是第1，$AAOI 是第2，上面措辞用错了。 总体上我喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔/CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源组件，$TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装/测试） - Win Semi（代工） - $TSEM（代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器/笼式热管理模块） 还有其他几个。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
-
说明AAOI主要是可插拔光模块敞口，FOCI是其第二喜欢的纯CPO标的。
回复 @awodias：不是，$AAOI 主要是可插拔光模块敞口。但它也有很大的 CPO 敞口，所以我用了光子学这个词。 如果说第二喜欢的纯 CPO 敞口，我会选 FOCI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@awodias No, $AAOI is primarily pluggable exposure. But they have large exposure to CPO too, hence why I included the word photonics. Second favorite pure play CPO exposure would be FOCI for me.
-
看好SIVE作为AAOI之后最喜欢的CPO/光子学股票。
$SIVE 是我在 AAOI 之后最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，那边还有很多“喜剧演员”提供娱乐。 今天一家新的非技术型对冲基金 Protean Funds（可能在做空）上节目，说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是想象出来的。 这刚好发生在 $GFS 把 $SIVE 设为其参考激光器之后。 给新读者一点背景：瑞典很多人只会看过去12个月收入，不理解前瞻增长概念。 他们也不理解，目前根本还没有任何 CPO 应用真正大规模放量。 所以瑞典对冲基金持续做空，像 Colosseum / Origo 这类基金已经严重亏损。 但对技术读者来说，从2026年下半年到2028年，这个市场会在一年半内从接近0增长到910亿美元 TAM（我们正进入下半年）。 整体 TAM 会达到1410亿美元，也是在一年半内增长10倍以上，而 $SIVE 还通过 $JBL 和其他未披露可插拔玩家切入了可插拔市场。 在 $SIVE 史上最大拐点到来前做空，对瑞典本地机构来说大概率不会有好结果。 放量只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
-
称AAOI是当前最喜欢的美国多头并提到JBL/SIVE 1.6T机会。
回复 @DanyloAkymenko：$AAOI 是我目前最喜欢的美国多头。 我个人最近在它跌到150美元，甚至170美元时都会加仓摊高成本。 我认为一旦 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 一起量产，$JBL 应该会表现很好。今天也谈到了 $RDDT。 如果你认为 $MRVL 能到1万亿美元……
原推 ↗英文原文
@DanyloAkymenko $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T
-
称AAOI是其从28美元以来持续加仓的标的。
$AAOI 是我从28美元以来一直持续加仓的名字之一。 只是一些随意想法……如果他们执行到位，我感觉翻倍或三倍几乎就在眼前？ 800G/1.6T 光收发器需求实在太多了…… 而这家公司正在瞄准最大的……
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest https://t.co/E3E6HtlHSp
-
称AAOI是最喜欢的美国光学多头，2027年上半年到下半年或是拐点。
我确实说过 $AAOI 是我最喜欢的美国光学多头…… 今天 +20.1%。 如果你想找下一个 $SNDK，你正在看着它。 我认为2027年上半年进入下半年时，可能会是光子学玩家的巨大拐点。 我们只是稍微早了一点，现在才进入2026年下半年，而大家还在……
原推 ↗英文原文
I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is https://t.co/0JuWJFrz32
-
批评混淆不同架构和客户时间线并用SIVE错误信息获利。
回复 @StormDirac：是的，把不同架构和客户时间线混在一起，是极其不诚实的。 然后还试图用关于 $SIVE 的错误信息获利。 但就 Citron 和 $AAOI 来看，在超级周期中做空光学公司结果并不好。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StormDirac Yeah, it's extremely disingenuous to conflate different architectures, customers timelines. And try to profit off false information with $SIVE. But with Citron and $AAOI, didnt turn out very well shorting optical companies in supercycles.
-
认为光学股上涨来自极端前瞻收入增长而非其做多。
回复 @ethics3606：不是，很遗憾，我去年做多 $LITE 并不会像公众舆论说的那样把它推到700亿美元市值。 它们都由极端的前瞻收入增长驱动，比如 $AAOI 从2027年下半年开始每月4.71亿美元。 以及 $SIVE 总前瞻收入管线单季度增长77%，从……
原推 ↗英文原文
@ethics3606 No, unfortunately me going long on $LITE last year doesn’t send it to a $70B MC, unlike public opinion. they’re all driven by extreme forward revenhe growth, $AAOI $471m / month starting H2 2027. And $SIVE total forward revenue pipelines growing 77% in a single quarter, from
-
认为光子学市场是跟随龙头的算法卖出，忽视个体基本面改善。
当前光子学市场主要只是“跟随龙头”的算法卖出。 大多数激光/光学相关公司，从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，似乎都和 $LITE 表现绑定在一起…… 尽管个体基本面正在改善。例如 AOI 与 $AMD / $NVDA 的讨论。 算法不会……
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s mainly just “follow the leader” algorithmic selloff in current photonics markets. Most laser/optical related companies from $AAOI to $SIVE seem tied to $LITE performance… Despite individual fundamentals improving. Eg. (AOI with $AMD / $NVDA discussions). Algorithms don’t https://t.co/gBm50DRqFj
-
认为若AAOI 2027下半年ARR达57亿，当前估值溢价不高。
回复 @jpm7019：如果 $AAOI 在2027年下半年进入时达到57亿美元 ARR，而现在市值120亿美元，那它获得的溢价并不多。 这是由底层基本面支撑的。 如果发生这种情况，太空或量子行业的很多溢价可能会消失，因为它们没有同样的收入数字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jpm7019 It’s not getting much premiums if $AAOI hits $5.7B ARR entering h2 2027 if it’s $12B now. It’s backed by underlying fundamentals. A lot of the premiums on space sector or quantum though would likely disappear in that event since they don’t have the same revenue figures.
-
高增长公司需要自己计算前瞻市盈率。
回复 @michaelsikand：是的，同意。我认为一般来说，如果你的股票不叫 $MSFT 或不是大型软件公司。 对于 $AAOI 或 $SNDK 这样的超高增长名字，你需要自己计算前瞻市盈率。
原推 ↗英文原文
@michaelsikand Yep agreed, i think just in general if your stock isn’t called $MSFT or a big Software name. You would need to calculate your own fwd P/E ratios with hypergrowth names like $AAOI or $SNDK.
-
称AAOI是当前美国市场最喜欢的光子学敞口。
$AAOI 实际上是我现在在美国市场最喜欢的光子学敞口。 去年我在28美元以低仓位做多，当时我猜它们正在与 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 认证。 业绩后约70美元时我有高信念，因为它们宣布了1.6T 和其他批量订单……
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with
-
感谢比利时报纸De Tijd客观报道其CPO/光子学供应链论点。
非常感谢 De Tijd 的客观报道！ 看到我的工作出现在比利时顶级报纸上很酷。 也很欣慰看到记者报道 $AAOI、$XFAB、$MRVL Celestial，以及我在 CPO + 光子学供应链论点背后的细微差别。 感谢 KLismont 提供照片。
原推 ↗英文原文
Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics. Ty KLismont for the photo. https://t.co/1GdLxJHAsN
-
用西语询问是否有人读西语内容，若读者多会发CPO或AAOI论点。
我不知道 X 上有多少人说西班牙语…… 这条帖子是真的吗？ 我会说一点，因为我在墨西哥踢了两三年足球。 如果有很多人会读我的帖子，我会用西班牙语发布一篇关于 CPO 或 $AAOI 的 thesis，哈哈。 抱歉，我的西班牙语不好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yo no sé cuántas personas hablan español en X... ¿Es verdad este post? Hablo un poco porque jugué fútbol en Mexico por dos o tres años Voy a publicar un thesis sobre CPO o $AAOI en español si hay muchas personas que leer mi post jaja Lo siento, mi español es malo https://t.co/qjckIzoVz6
-
对比软件股小幅反弹与AI光学股200-1000%涨幅。
我仍觉得很好笑，软件兄弟们看到 $CRM 到 $FIG 反弹10-15%就很开心。 此前他们的组合已经被抹掉25-60%。 与此同时，从 $SNDK 到 $AAOI 的所有 AI 名字随随便便上涨200-1000%。
原推 ↗英文原文
I still find it funny how all the software bros are happy about a 10-15% recovery with $CRM to $FIG. After getting wiped 25-60% of their portfolio. Meanwhile all the AI names from $SNDK to $AAOI are casually up 200-1000%.
-
随机预测一年后AAOI/SIVE/Foci/Shunsin市值。
回复 @Batemanzm75：我来随便做一个一年后的预测： $AAOI - 700亿美元市值 $SIVE - 300亿美元市值 Foci - 150亿美元市值 Shunsin - 100亿美元市值
原推 ↗英文原文
@Batemanzm75 I’m gonna go ahead and make a random prediction in a year: $AAOI - $70B MC $SIVE - $30B MC Foci - $15B MC Shunsin - $10B MC
-
认为AAOI、SIVE、Foci、Shunsin当前风险收益最好。
- $AAOI 120亿美元 - $SIVE 20亿美元 - Foci 28亿美元 - Shunsin 20亿美元 在我看来，这些通常是目前最好的风险/回报。之前我的很多答案，比如 $AXTI，已经涨了10倍，所以这次阵容不同。 $AAOI 是因为产能爬坡带来的2027年上半年荒谬收入预测，正在做所有事情……
原推 ↗英文原文
- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything
-
即使AAOI已130亿市值，因激光瓶颈和2027收入爬坡更看多。
考虑到最近所有激光瓶颈，我实际上比 $AAOI 在20亿美元或60亿美元市值时，更看好现在130亿美元市值的 $AAOI。 我也认为市场错过了关于它可能与 $NVDA 或 $AMD 签订长期供应协议的分析师注释。 如果他们预测2027年上半年4.71亿美元……那是荒谬的爬坡。 当然，6亿美元 ATM 是短期压制。 只是等待时间的问题？因为这更多是能否跟上需求。 所以问题更多是他们能生产多少。 它大概是我现在持有的、最喜欢的美国本土光子学多头。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Than I was back at $2B or $6B. I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD. If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… that’s absurd ramp. But of course the $600M ATM is a short term overhang. Just a matter of waiting time? Given it’s more about keeping up with demand… So more of a matter of how much they can make. Probably my favorite US-based photonics long stock now that I own.
-
回顾AAOI/AXTI早期被FUD，如今类似CPO转折正在SIVE/Foci上重演。
当我在 $AAOI 约20-30美元做多时： 我以为 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 正在为其 ASIC 项目认证特定光收发器。 结果它更可互换、更可大规模生产。 无论如何，很高兴我关于 $LITE、$AAOI、Innolight、$COHR、$AXTI 的 thesis 表现这么好。 记住：当 $AAOI 在20-30美元时，X 上所有人都说“管理层诈骗”…… 或者在 $AXTI 12美元时说“诈骗公司”。 FUD 非常极端。 现在感觉又像似曾相识……做多下一轮 CPO 架构转变，比如 $SIVE 或 Foci？然后收到同样评论。 我们会看看我的 CPO 多头是否会像 Shunsin 对 Innolight、或 $SIVE 对 $LITE 那样兑现。 无论如何，那些名字现在都已经上涨数百到数千个百分点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.
-
认为光子学无新闻下跌是有吸引力主题的波动，自己在加仓。
今天光子学无新闻下跌挺有意思？ $LITE -4.95% $AAOI -4.85% $SIVE -14.8% $SOI -5.73% $AXTI -8.13% $IQE -12.13% 我认为它可能是未来最有吸引力的主题（甚至超过功率半导体）。 只是上涨途中往往非常波动。 不过我对 $AAOI 有些惊讶，因为显然有机构报告提到与 $AMD 或 $NVDA 的长期协议（Rosenblatt）。也许6亿美元 ATM 限制了近期上行。 $SIVE 也是，考虑到下周 EU Chips Act 2 围绕光子学，而它们列在蓝图中。下周还有 MSCI/NASDAQ OMX 资金流入。 我个人一直在加仓，因为我对光子学主题（尤其是 CPO）有高信念，原因是未来两年整体 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
-
粉丝达到40万，称乐于免费分享TSEM到AAOI等想法。
哇，40万粉丝！感谢大家。 我觉得免费和大家分享想法很有趣，从 $TSEM 到 $AAOI。 尤其是如果它们方向上最终正确，并帮助别人建立自己的信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone. I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI. And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq
-
认为SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO敞口，核心激光供应商多已数百亿美元估值。
$SIVE 是我看来最有吸引力的 CPO 敞口股票。 尽管有波动。 在多年后下一次光子学架构转变之前，你可能不会再找到这样的东西。 在核心激光供应商中，它们都已经是数百亿美元级别？ $AAOI = 150亿美元 Furukawa……
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa https://t.co/bPCZdDKXhZ
-
中文：若不能说出光通信全产业链说明还需多读，其观点帮助读者建立逻辑。
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的 InP（磷化铟）衬底， 一路向下到光模块成品制造商…… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
原推 ↗英文原文
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底， 路向下游直到光模块成品制造商… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
-
复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
-
AAOI拥有800G/1.6T端到端制造规模，美国制造和税收抵免应带来溢价。
是的，$AAOI 拥有 800G/1.6T 光收发器的端到端制造规模，而现在超大云厂商会买下 $AAOI 或光学玩家能生产的任何东西。 它们试图全部在美国完成，并获得税收抵免（例如德州），这应该给它溢价。 只是6亿美元稀释影响近期价格有点烦。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make. The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums. Just annoying there's a $600m dilution affecting near term prices.
-
Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
-
长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
-
中文：感谢华人社区赞誉，称空头被打爆只是喜欢AAOI的副作用。
华人社区最近的赞誉让我感到受宠若惊！ 我认为任何空头被打爆，都只是我单纯喜欢像 $AAOI 这样的股票而产生的无意间副作用。 希望也能与更多华人社区朋友互动（最近我在 X 上跟日本和韩国网友互动得比较多）。
原推 ↗英文原文
华人社区最近的赞誉让我感到受宠若惊！ 我认为任何空头被打爆，都只是我单纯喜欢像 $AAOI 这样的股票而产生的无意间的副作用。 希望也能与更多的华人社区朋友互动（最近我在 X 上跟日本和韩国的网友互动得比较多）。
-
比较AAOI与SIVE：前者制造规模，后者独特IP和CPO供应商渗透。
$AAOI 更偏纯制造规模，我极度看多它们。 所以在我看来，它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此对收入爬坡极其看多。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要 CPO 超大云供应商似乎都使用它们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。 甚至 $JBL 也用 Sivers 做出突破性的 1.6T LRO 护城河。 Sivers 的上限很高，未来也总能像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样用资本开支做垂直整合。 但它们当前主要重点应该是创造尽可能大的 IP 护城河，并把制造外包以保持轻资本。 以后也总能垂直整合组装和激光晶圆厂。 我喜欢它们两个，但原因不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.
-
AAOI从28到170已大涨，但短期有6亿美元稀释压制。
回复 @PronologieFR：$AAOI 字面上从28美元涨到170美元。那就是 brrr。 但如果你谈的是短期时间框架，目前有6亿美元稀释正在进行，会限制上行。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PronologieFR $AAOI literally went from $28 to $170. That was a brrr. But if you're talking in short term timeframes, there's a $600m dilution ongoing, which caps upside.
-
指出AAOI 6亿美元ATM造成短期压力。
回复 @PronologieFR：呃，就是 $AAOI 的6亿美元 ATM，会造成很多近期压力。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PronologieFR Uhh just your $600m ATM with $AAOI, that causes a lot of near term pressure
-
不看好IREN，因过度有毒稀释结构限制上行，AAOI同期回报更高。
回复 @IggyPacoRico1：我看不到今天做多 $IREN 的理由，因为过度且有毒的稀释结构从结构上限制了上行。 同一时期 $IREN 持平到负收益，而 $AAOI 本可以带来300%+回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
@IggyPacoRico1 I see no reason to long $IREN today when upside is structurally capped with excessive and toxic dilution structures. $AAOI would have returned 300%+ in the same period $IREN was flat to negative.
-
AI板块从NBIS到LITE/AAOI出现普通周一回调。
AI 领域从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 再到 $AAOI，只是普通周一回调？
原推 ↗英文原文
Just your normal Monday correction in the AI space from $NBIS to $LITE to $AAOI? https://t.co/5g3HCAlcA4
-
越频繁谈某主题，通常说明越认为它当前未知或低估。
回复 @johnoao：我越多谈某件事……通常说明我越认为它在当前时间框架中未知/低估。 不过它们方向上结果都不错？比如去年底以来的 $LITE、$AXTI、$AAOI、$NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
@johnoao The more I talk about something… generally the more I think it’s unknown/underpriced in current timeframes. They all have turned out well directionally though? Like $LITE, $AXTI, $AAOI, $NBIS from late last year.
-
深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
-
列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
原推 ↗英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
-
总结 photonics 当天暴涨说明仍在早期
光子这一天也太疯狂了。 $SIVE 涨 31.3% $TSEM 涨 23.1% $AAOI 涨 20.01%。 这看起来很多……但这只说明你还站在下一轮超级周期的早期，而且后面还有很大空间。 X 上很多人会问：$SNDK 之后是什么？ 就是这些。 https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
原推 ↗英文原文
What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
-
说 AAOI 已经上涨 6-7 倍
$AAOI 现在已经涨到大约 200 美元，差不多 6-7 倍了。 感觉去年除了我和 X 上另外两三个人，几乎没人还在做多它？ 它仍然是我接下来 2027 年前后最看好的光学多头之一，因为收入会大幅放量，而且有 Made in America 供应链。 https://t.co/HD0724F2vE
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is now up ~6-7x at $200+. Feels like nobody else was long last year aside from me and like two other people on X? Remains one of my top high conviction optical longs moving forward into 2027 due to massive revenue ramp + Made in America supply chains. https://t.co/HD0724F2vE
-
用历史市值路径说明 laser chokepoint 的威力
回答这个问题，我就拿一些 laser chokepoint 的历史数据出来： $LITE 从 30 亿 -> 150 亿 -> 800 亿美元，只用了从 2024 年开始的 2 年。 $AAOI 从 7.7 亿 -> 150 亿美元，只用了 2025 年开始的 1 年。 $SIVE 现在在 2026 年是 16 亿美元。 世界上这类公司没多少，而 laser 又是 photonics 的绝对中心。 每家公司都拥有一个特定的 chokepoint，对应一次光学架构的变化。 $LITE 对应 EML。 $AAOI 对应 cw 800g/1.6T pluggable。 而现在 $SIVE 对应 cw CPO。
原推 ↗英文原文
To answer that question. I’ll just float some historical data out there with laser chokepoints: $LITE went from $3B -> $15B -> $80B in 2 years from 2024. $AAOI went from $770M -> $15B in 1 year from 2025. $SIVE is $1.6B today in 2026. There’s not many in the world and lasers are the absolute center of photonics. Each owned a specific chokepoint from optical architectural shifts. $LITE for EML. $AAOI for cw 800g/1.6T pluggable and now $SIVE for cw CPO.
-
说 SIVE 业绩的关键在量产和客户进展
$SIVE 的业绩结果其实不重要，我看不出财务上有什么风险，最多就是媒体平常爱制造恐慌。 像我以前对 $AAOI / $AEHR 一样，现在主要该看的指标是 2027 年以后的激光量产。 如果有 Win Semi 产能锁定，那就会很利好。 或者如果 Ayar、Jabil 和其他客户出现量产，那也是利好。 任何关于新增 hyperscaler 供应商的备注，都会是利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE earning results don't matter, I don't see risks in financials other than your usual media trying to cause panic. Main indicators to look at like I've done before with $AAOI / $AEHR. Are around laser volume production going forward in 2027. Maybe anything around Win Semi capacity lock would be bullish. Or Ayar, Jabil, and other customer volume production. Any added note around new hyperscaler suppliers would be bullish.
-
CPO市场将从零增长至910亿美元，欧洲、台湾、日本新玩家将主导CPO供应链变革。
人们好奇我为什么最近在关注非美国市场。 为什么？因为共封装光学(CPO)是我排名第一的主题性看多方向。 市场尚未意识到，光子学领域正经历一场突如其来的范式转变... 2025年，我是少数几个提前预判当前超级周期的人之一，当时买入的$AAOI约在$30、$LITE约在$300多、$AXTI约在$13...这些都是基于真实的业绩验证和其他人无法展示的thesis。 CPO市场将从约0增长到910亿美元的TAM机会。 高盛研究预计在未来1.5年内实现。 与此同时，整体光学市场将达到1540亿美元。 许多之前对当前光子学周期几乎没有任何敞口的企业： -> 欧洲企业拥有高端激光设计，如$SIVE或$SOI涉及衬底 -> 台湾企业如Foci (3363)、Nextronics (8147)、Shunsin (6451)等提供光学元件和代工服务 -> 日本企业涉及激光量产、衬底和化学品 突然之间成为了CPO的新主导力量。 至于美国玩家，目前敞口不大。但现有企业如$LITE、$COHR仍能从CPO中获得上涨空间，因为这是它们新的增长向量。 我对现有玩家的逆向思考： 他们的大部分估值已经反映了巨大的传统可插拔光学收入，而这些收入将不可避免地随时间被 cannibalize（ cannibalization蚕食），因此除非有人能利用杠杆，否则重新估值的空间有限。 许多新的纯CPO概念股会在H2 2026开始量产时从0到100极速增长（作为收入桥梁），然后进入H2 2027的规模化增长阶段（成为大规模增长驱动力）。 市场通常会在事件发生前8-12个月定价... 尽管在此期间市场可能出现波动，但我对自己的供应链研究在主题性方向上有高度信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.
-
强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
-
用历史说明 SIVE 已站在新的 laser chokepoint 上
$LITE 用 2 年从 20 亿涨到 800 亿，因为它掌握了 EML 的 laser chokepoint。 $AAOI 用 1 年从 14 亿涨到 140 亿，因为它掌握了 800g / 1.6T transceivers 和组装的 laser chokepoint。 $SIVE 今天大概是 14 亿美元，在 CPO 之前就已经掌握了 CW laser chokepoint。 Sivers 是我最喜欢的一个。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE went from $2B to $80B in two years by owning the laser chokepoint for EML $AAOI went from $1.4B to $14B in one year by owning laser chokepoint for 800g/1.6T transceivers + assembly $SIVE is $1.4B today before CPO and owns the CW laser chokepoint. Sivers is my favorite out of everything.
-
AAOI 是极强的 pluggable 敞口
@hmmmmmm1458 $AAOI 是极强的 pluggable 敞口……我还在犹豫 CPO 到底是更利好它，还是更伤害它。
原推 ↗英文原文
@hmmmmmm1458 $AAOI is extreme pluggable exposure... Still debating if CPO helps them more than it hurts
-
解释为什么每条帖子都会有人追问同样的问题
我不明白为什么每一条帖子下面，从 $AAOI 到 $LPK，大家都会问这种问题？ 我已经说过很多次了，$FLNC 宣布拿下两个新的 hyperscaler 合同之后，我是有仓位的。 但我确实觉得 $FLNC 很有吸引力，因为从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN，hyperscaler 一般不会签小单。 尤其是看 $MSFT 和 $NBIS 的合同，很多内容都让人非常意外。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post? I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals. But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general. Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.
-
强调要看财报而不是只看短线图形
我真的就是在分析财报，而不是看图。 去看财报后几分钟的股价反应来判断正负，其实很蠢。 像 $AAOI、$AEHR，或者我最近看过的任何单个财报，财报刚出来之后发生了什么都不重要，除非你是在做周度期权交易。 如果它跌了，但实际上结构上是正面的，那反而会成为买点，就像 $AAOI 那样。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm literally analyzing earnings, not the chart. Looking at reactions shortly after to see if it's positive/negative is stupid. As seen with $AAOI, $AEHR or any single earnings I've looked at recently, it doesn't matter what happens right after unless you're weekly option trading. And if it drops, while it's actually structurally positive, then that's a buying opportunity as seen with $AAOI.
-
Towa财报短期因会计幻象被误读，长期H2布局极好，利润率拐点已至
关于Towa (6315)： 财报非常复杂。我原本的论点（短期）中对当前财报的"Beat"判断是错误的，这是我的失误。 但对于H2 2026来说，这是一个极好的结构性多头布局，而非H1。 TLDR：短期由于算法交易无法理解这些细微差别而看跌，长期非常积极（市场是前瞻性的） 营收 ¥54.36B（同比+1.7%）， 净利润 ¥4.59B（同比-43.4%）。 营业利润 ¥6.91B（同比-22.1%） 新闻标题写着"EPS暴跌-43.4%"或"订单不及预期"，这可能会触发算法交易抛售。 1. 正如你们在美国Towa交易中看到的，"EPS暴跌-43.4%"，算法可能已经根据标题卖出了。 -> 但这是由于去年有一笔一次性"损坏赔偿补偿"支出，以及去年价值13亿日元的一次性股票销售。 -> 此外，"新客户压缩设备的初始成本增加"也导致了本季度盈利能力下降。 所以这是一次会计幻象，并非真正的盈利能力问题+新订单规模化，是一次性的。 然而： 利润率拐点已经到来。这是最重要的信号。 全年营业利润率为12.7%。要使年平均达到12.7%，而Q1-Q3徘徊在10%左右，Q4应该需要达到约18.4%左右？ 这对未来盈利能力来说极其看涨，表明HBM压缩机正在发挥作用，与传统设备相比。 2. 订单"不及预期"： "随着前端工艺产能扩张，预计在2027年3月财年下半财年加速增长。" 这表明 $MU、Sk Hynix和其他公司尚未准备好空间，因为他们仍在建设前端晶圆厂生产线。 但H2，为大幅超预期做好了准备。需求可见度是存在的......只是营收/利润攀升被推迟到H2。 _ Towa前瞻指引预测销售额¥64.0B（同比+17.7%），营业利润¥10.24B（同比+48.0%），这标志着未来将创历史最高盈利能力。 IMO他们还压低了营收指引，因为他们明确表示下半年加速，但没有给出太多预期超预期。 日本公司也倾向于极度保守，他们的股息提高也是一个重要信号。 无论如何，我认为美国抛售可能只是由于负面会计标题+流动性较低。另外，我早了大约4-6个月。 但Towa在H2的布局非常积极。只是不是那种像 $SNDK $AAOI 那样单日10%+的爆发式公司。 TLDR：长期看涨，短期很多细微差别被标题误导了。 只需要再有耐心等待几个月。利润率正在上升，营收/订单被推迟到H2，股息提高，等等。
原推 ↗英文原文
For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.
-
LITE 被纳入指数后带动整个光学链条
@TomSzczypka $LITE 进了纳斯达克 100，资金流入会很多。 算法把 $SIVE、$AAOI、$AEHR 和其他名字都和 Lumentum 这个行业龙头关联起来了。 所以它们一起被带上去了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TomSzczypka $LITE nasdaq 100 lot of inflow. Algorithms tied $SIVE, $AAOI, $AEHR, and others to Lumentum now as the sector leader. So they all got brought up together.
-
LITE 突破 1000 美元，自己方向判断没错
$LITE 现在已经超过 1000 美元了。你听了吗 anon？ 我方向上确实经常能把光学公司看对…… 所以我看到像 $AAOI 或 $SIVE 这些名字上的空头，真的会觉得很好笑。 https://t.co/agPpMQv8Xw
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE is now over $1000. Did you listen anon? I do tend to get optical players directionally right... So it's hilarious when I see short sellers on names like $AAOI or $SIVE. https://t.co/agPpMQv8Xw
-
AAOI 的财报下跌反而给了更好的买点
@Jess252530 对，我最后还是买了那次下跌，并且一路摊上去了。 其实当时的业绩预测非常看多，大家不应该因为 $AAOI 的当前财报就不看它，如果它是 2027 年下半年才真正进入成长的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jess252530 Yeah I ended up buying that drop and cost averaging up. It was actually extremely bullish projections, people shouldn't care about the current earnings reports for $AAOI if it's a 2027 late H1 growth company.
-
学会真正分析财报，而不是只看图
学会真正分析财报，是个很好的教训。 而不是财报后立刻只看图。 $AAOI 自从财报跌到 139 美元后已经涨了 25.18%，今天又涨了 16.09%。 https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s a good lesson to learn how to actually analyze earnings reports. Rather than looking at the chart right afterward. $AAOI up 25.18% since ER drop to $139… and +16.09% today. https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
-
AAOI被比作光学版Intel，借超大规模需求东风，2027年收入预测显示严重低估。
我之前在 $AAOI 市值 $6.49B 时就说过同样的话。 现在市值 $11.5B，故事还是一样的： 基本上这就是光学(Optics)版的 $INTC，他们正在将产能从激光晶圆制造扩展到美国本土组装。 他们生产的任何东西都可能被超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)收购。 如果看 2027 年中期预测的 $1.41B 季度收入增长（$471 x 3）与当前市值的对比，当前的财务数据其实不太重要。 以及高盛预测的 9 倍 TAM 增长曲线。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’ve said this before when $AAOI was $6.49B. Now it’s $11.5B and this is the same story: Basically this is the Optical version of $INTC, where they’re scaling capacity from laser fab to assembly Made in America. Anything they make is likely to be bought out by hyperscalers. Current financials don’t really mater if you look at $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid 2027 projections ($471 x 3) vs current MC. And the overarching 9x TAM curve from GS projections.
-
对比AAOI和IREN过去6个月股价表现，AAOI大涨451%远超IREN的6%。
@nasdaq90 在过去6个月里，$AAOI上涨了451%，而$IREN表现稳健，上涨了6%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@nasdaq90 $AAOI is up 451% in the past 6 months while $IREN is up a solid 6%.
-
财报非常正面，市场反应却看错了
$AAOI 报了财，我看下来其实非常正面，和市场反应完全相反。 和所有 2027 年那种超高斜率前瞻成长公司一样： 大家不该只盯当前财报。 市场漏掉的关键点是： AOI 已经把 800G transceiver 的产能做到每月 10 万台。 而且管理层说，随着产能上线，Q3 开始会有明显更大的增长。 如果真看财务： non-GAAP 毛利率约 29.2% 营收约 1.511 亿美元，Q2 指引 1.8 亿到 1.98 亿美元。 我们已经从 Lumentum 的财报知道，这更多是产能瓶颈，不是需求瓶颈。只要能做出来，都会卖完。 这是一个前瞻成长故事，所以除了这些数字之外，更重要的是财报电话会里对 hyperscaler 需求和产能爬坡的说明。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI reported earnings, it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions. Like all 2027 hyperbolic forward growth companies: Nobody should care about current financials. Key things market missed was: AOI: hit They hit 100K units/month capacity for 800G transceivers. And: -> "Significant larger growth expected starting in Q3 as capacity comes online" If you do look at financials: It's ~29.2% non GAAP gross margin on ~$151.1M revenue, guiding $180-$198m Q2. We already know from Lumentum earnings that it's more of capacity bottleneck, not a demand one. And anything they make they sell out. It's a forward growth story, so important thing aside from these notes is the earnings call on hyperscaler demand implications and capacity ramp.
-
回顾自己在 AAOI 30 美元时的提示
@reallynotu 我在 $AAOI 30 美元的时候就发过帖。 很抱歉它从 30 涨到 180，然后又回调到 155，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@reallynotu I posted about $AAOI at $30. I’m sorry it went from $30 to $180 then corrected back to $155 lol
-
AAOI 基本面没变，只是短线波动更大
@Blake_BTFD $AAOI 没什么变化，只是短线价格变得更抖了？ 得习惯 Jane Street 带来的波动。我更多还是关心 1.6T 相关产能爬坡，以及财报里有没有额外的 hyperscaler 数字。 当前收入本身倒不是重点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blake_BTFD Nothing changed about $AAOI, just the short prices? Gotta get used to Jane Street adding volatility. Mostly curious about 1.6T related capacity ramp and any extra hyperscaler figures in their earnings. Not so much so about current revenues.
-
MicroLED技术就绪度低，$SIVEF/$AAOI等CW光模块企业更值得布局
MicroLED在高盛报告所述的任何CPO相关批量增长之前，仍然感觉还很遥远。 Quantum Dot（如$ALMU/QD）甚至没有被提及，因为它的前景在数年之外。 在调整中，"溢价"会消失，但估值底部由收入支撑。 另一方面，$SIVEF或$AAOI即将进入批量生产阶段（<800万），直接处于CW领域。 我更倾向于在经过多年研发/扩张之后立即获得上涨空间... 而不是等待数年从研发到样品再到认证...然后才到达批量增长的转折点。 MicroLED的"技术就绪度"很低。
原推 ↗英文原文
MicroLED still feels far away before any CPO related volume ramp per Goldman Sachs note. Quantum Dot like $ALMU / QD isn't even mentioned since it's way way out by years. In a correction, "premiums" disappear, but valuation floors are backed by revenue. $SIVEF or $AAOI on the other hand are volume ramping soon <8M and directly in the CW space. Would prefer immediate upside after years of R&D/expansion... Than waiting years at the beginning for R&D into sampling into qualification... Then inflection point of volume ramp. "Technology readiness" is low for MicroLED.
-
LITE财报后市场误读CPO利好导致光学股被错杀，CPO超级周期才刚开始。
我认为很多人会很惊讶地发现，股票并不会直线上涨。 今天： 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE 再到 $AAOI，激光类公司分别下跌 -8.0%、-10.2% 和 -4.38%。 台湾涉及共封装光学(CPO)概念的公司如 MSSCorps、Shunsin 以及相关公司 Win Semi 跌停 -10%。 $AXTI 和 $SOI 分别下跌 -7% 和 -10.2%。 这是在 $LITE 发布财报之后。 我非常确定，市场错过了财报电话会议中关于 CPO 概念的强烈利好信号，但对于 $SIVEF 或 Shunsin 这样的 CPO 概念股来说，这是极度看涨的，然而算法交易却卖出了所有光学股。 这仍然是整个 CPO 超级周期的非常早期的阶段。 在任何量能上升之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%. After $LITE reported earnings. Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical. This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve. Before any volume ramp.
-
用图形化方式理解 CPO 的增长曲线
只是给视觉型学习者看一下 CPO： 这就是 GS + $LITE 财报确认下的 CPO 市场增长曲线。 有些名字和 CPO 的高 beta 相关性非常强。 也许……在超级周期最开始或中段时，去复制那些“橙皮”命名的公司，比如 $AAOI 到 $SNDK，再去做空别的名字，可能不是好主意。 尤其如果你是散户，人在欧洲，而且只看过去 12 个月的收入，而不是前瞻成长。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just for the visual learners about CPO: This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations. There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO. Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK to short names. At the very beginning or middle of supercycles? Especially if you're retail, live in Europe, and only look at last 12 months revenue instead of forward growth.
-
认为 LITE 外购 CW lasers 让 AAOI 和 SIVE 受益
是的，$LITE 承认自己被迫从竞争对手那里购买 CW lasers，这对 $AAOI 来说是巨大利好。 因为他们自己就有 CW laser fab，而且目标是在 2027 年把产能提升 350%。 $LITE 财报电话会最重要的 nuance 是：$NVDA 已经在上游给 CW lasers 造成了巨大瓶颈。 很可能 $COHR 和 $LITE 都签了多年的 EML 协议，所以它们被锁死了，没法生产足够的 CW lasers。 我持有的一些原来被认为是“Tier 2”的名字，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，现在很可能因为没有被 Nvidia 完全分配产能而地位上升。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes, $LITE admitting they're forced to buy CW lasers from their competitors is a massive win for $AAOI. Since they have their own CW Laser fab (and target 350% increase in capacity by 2027). The massive nuanced takeaway from $LITE earnings call: $NVDA caused a massive upstream bottleneck for CW lasers. It's likely $COHR and $LITE have multi-year EML agreements, so they're locked up and can't produce enough CW lasers. A lot of the former "Tier 2" players I own like $AAOI and $SIVE, are likely elevated in status now given they're not fully allocated to Nvidia.
-
回顾只做 photonics 和 memory 时的惊人 YTD
如果你只盯着 photonics + memory，那今年本来会是一个史诗级收益年。 从 $EWY 到 $AAOI 的所有顶级板块长仓都涨了几百个百分点。 我一直说，Photonics + Memory 在主题上是最好的。 现在还有一些细微的架构变化： photonics 这边是 pluggables -> CPO memory 这边是 hbm3e -> hbm4 本质上还是同一对超级周期。 只是上游瓶颈和受益者不一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Would have been a generational YTD if you focused on photonics + memory anon. Every top sector long from $EWY leaps to $AAOI is up multiple hundreds of percent. I’ve always said Photonics + Memory was the best thematically. Now there’s subtle architecture changes: On photonics: pluggables -> CPO On memory: hbm3e -> hbm4 The same two supercycles. Different upstream bottlenecks and beneficiaries.
-
博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
原推 ↗英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
-
回怼把这些名字叫 meme stock 的人
@piques15 大家都说 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $SIVE 是“没有基本面的 meme stocks”，笑死。 然后 Goldman Sachs 就甩出这份神级预测。
原推 ↗英文原文
@piques15 Everyone kept saying $AXTI, $AAOI, and $SIVE were "memestocks with no fundamentals" lmfao. Then Goldman Sachs just drops this banger of projections.
-
列出自己最偏好的高 beta 和复利型名字
@Meatusmax 如果是我个人会这么做： “高上行火箭”： 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI 复利型： 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
@Meatusmax Maybe here's what I'd do personally: "High Upside Rockets": 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI Compounders: 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
-
高盛看好AI驱动光通信供应链，多环节供应商名单汇总
如果你对高盛的报告感兴趣： 他们预期以下领域会出现"显著的每股收益(EPS)增长"： 1. 光学模块和引擎 2. 连续波(CW)激光器和电吸收调制激光器(EML) 3. 印制电路板(PCB)/覆铜板(CCL)制造商 以下是这份超详细清单： 激光器/光源(硅光子SiPh)：Sumitomo、Furukawa(5801)、Landmark(3081)、YJ Semi、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、Etern、曙光光电(https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT)、世嘉光子(https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm)、应用光电(AAOI)、Accelink、三菱电机(6503) 激光器/光源(EML)：Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、博通(AVGO)、YJ Semi、永恒光电(Etern)、住友电工(5802)、曙光光电、世嘉光子、Source Photonics(私营)、三菱电机(6503)、Accelink、古河电气(5801) 无源光学组件-耦合器/分路器：FOCI(3363)、Senko(私营)、AFR、Everprox、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR) 无源光学组件-滤波器：世嘉光子、住友电工(5802)、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、唯亚威(VIAV)、FOCI(3363) 无源光学组件-衰减器：Everprox、Accelink、FOCI(3363)、Lumentum(LITE) 无源光学组件-波分复用(WDM)：AFR、Everprox、Accelink、Ciena(CIEN)、TFC Optical、Lumentum(LITE)、FOCI(3363)
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're curious about Goldman's Report: They expect "significant EPS upside" among: 1. Optical modules and engines 2. CW lasers and EMLs 3. PCB/CCL manufacturers Here's the massive cheat sheet: Laser / Light Sources (SiPh): Sumitomo, Furukawa (5801), Landmark (3081), YJ Semi, $LITE, $COHR $AVGO, Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Mitsubishi (6503.T) Laser / Light Sources (EML): Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Broadcom (AVGO), YJ Semi (https://t.co/qWTYoY2y6z), Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Source Photonics (Private), Mitsubishi (6503.T), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Furukawa (5801.T) Passive Optical Components - Couplers / Splitters: FOCI (3363.TWO), Senko (Private), AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR) Passive Optical Components - Filters: Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Viavi (VIAV), FOCI (3363.TWO) Passive Optical Components - Attenuators: Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), FOCI (3363.TWO), Lumentum (LITE) Passive Optical Components - WDM: AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Ciena (CIEN), TFC Optical (https://t.co/fjsjeuQxcq), Lumentum (LITE), FOCI (3363.TWO)
-
回顾自己提前抓住多轮超级周期
去年我提前点出了 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 和 Innolight…… 今年： 我找到了 $SOI，也就是 SiPH substrate，相当于 $AXTI。 然后又找到了 $SIVE，也就是 laser chokepoint。
原推 ↗英文原文
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
-
强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
-
总结自己这个月的收益表现
我这个月收益还不错。 从 $AAOI 涨 100% 到 $SOI 涨 153.9%。 $SNDK +70%、$INTC +97.7%、$MRVL +54%、$ARM +41.5% 对我个人来说都算跑输。 但整体看还是挺猛的。
原推 ↗英文原文
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
-
回顾光子股大涨并感谢听从原始 thesis 的人
光子股起飞了。 $AXTI +17.34% $AAOI +12.47% 希望你听了我最早的 thesis，anon？ https://t.co/SCo3h80afN
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics go brrrr $AXTI +17.34% $AAOI +12.47% Hope you listened to my original thesis anon? https://t.co/SCo3h80afN
-
说自己点中的多只光子股都涨了三倍
@vz921 我猜自己点中 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$SOI、$AEHR 这些，今年都涨了 3 倍，是运气好？
原推 ↗英文原文
@vz921 I guess it’s just luck calling out $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $SOI, $AEHR, and others that all went up 3x this year?
-
认为 AAOI 也许还能继续涨，但三倍速度会慢一些
@ExtensiveRsrch 我在 $AAOI 30 美元附近就点出来了，现在都快 160 了？ 它再像之前那样 3 倍会慢很多，但如果明年它变成美国最大 1.6T + laser fab 产能之一，也不是不可能。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ExtensiveRsrch I called out $AAOI at like $30 and it's like $160 now? Less likely to 3x as fast but next year it's possible if they become largest 1.6T + laser fab capacity in US.
-
AAOI 仍有上行空间
@bartlett_d26245 $AAOI 取决于财报。回到 60 美元时我就说它应该值 110 亿到 130 亿美元，现在终于达到我的预期了。 现在就看执行情况了，但如果他们真的做到成为美国最大的激光代工厂，并拥有 1.6T 产能，一年内轻松就能变成 300 亿美元以上的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bartlett_d26245 $AAOI depends on the earnings. Back at $60 I said it should be valued at $11-$13B, and finally hit that projection. Depends on execution now, but if they deliver becoming largest laser fab + 1.6T capacity America, could easily be a $30B+ company in a year.
-
信息发现让别人受益
很高兴看到我的关注者正在借助 $SIVE、$AAOI 之类的名字，或者其他名字，摆脱永久性的低层阶级。 股票本来就是正和游戏。 如果信息整合 / 发现是正确的，而且能帮助别人建立自己的判断，那大家都会受益。 我最感谢的还是那 1 美元！
原推 ↗英文原文
Happy to see my followers are escaping the permanent underclass with names like $SIVE, $AAOI, or others. Stocks really are positive sum. Everyone benefits if information synthesis / discovery is correct and helps people from their own conviction. I appreciate the $1 the most!
-
CPO TW 名字在回调后可分批布局
@tw_crypto_ 像 Shunsin 这类 CPO 台湾名字，很多都从持仓分布上回调过头了，所以我在那个赛道里做定投。 像 $AAOI 这类的 CSP 之类的东西，看起来也挺有希望。
原推 ↗英文原文
@tw_crypto_ A lot of the CPO TW names like Shunsin overcorrected from disposition so I’m cost averaging in that sector. CSP on stuff like $AAOI and others seems promising too.
-
最蠢的抛售理由
这大概是我见过最蠢的抛售理由了……有人居然能给出来？ 我 99% 确定，像 $AAOI 或 $TSEM 这种名字根本不会在乎 OpenAI 目标被内部泄露一次这类事情。 但算法一看到这种主流媒体叙事就会嗨起来。 这就是为什么现在没人再完全相信它们能准确报道的完美例子。 不过话说回来，回调总是健康的，能让后面走出更高的新高。
原推 ↗英文原文
This has gotta be the dumbest selloff reason… someone could have provided? I am 99% sure names like $AAOI or $TSEM couldn’t care less about one internal leak of OpenAI’s high flying goals. But algorithms go reeee when they see mainstream media narratives like this. Perfect example on why nobody trusts them anymore for fully accurate reporting. That being said, corrections are always healthy to make higher highs.
-
LITE 和 AAOI 的比喻
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE 是龙虾和最后一道 surf and turf。 $AAOI 是那个也卖最后一道 surf and turf 的蒸汽锅厨师。 但他们又想回去养红龙虾。
原推 ↗英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE is a lobster and the final surf and turf. $AAOI is the steamer who also sells the final surf and turf. But they want to go back to farming red lobsters as well.
-
AAOI 也可能是潜在客户
谢谢提醒。 $AAOI 也有可能是其中之一，因为他们在 OFC 上宣布了一个 ELSFP。 他们通常都是自家代工，然后卖成品光模块。他们有这种可选性。 但我不认为这和 $SIVE 设计进 Celestial 的架构是一样的？我得再研究一下。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for reminding me. It's possible for $AAOI could to be one since they announced a ELSFP at OFC. They usually just do captive and sell the finished optical transceivers. They have the optionality to. But I don't think it matches the same architecture that $SIVE designed into Celestial? Will need to look into it more.
-
AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
原推 ↗英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
-
没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
-
光子学正处于新超级周期
这件事非常微妙，我来解释为什么它不是“晚了”，只是对有些人来说已经晚了： 光子学是最新的超级周期（也许从 2025 年上半年到下半年就是起点）。 然后每个超级周期里都会有很多不同的架构变化： -> $LITE、$COHR、Innolight、$AXTI 这些名字引领了第一波 我之前那篇 thesis 把它们四个都列成了最大受益者（1 年涨幅都在 500%-1000%） -> $AAOI、$JBL 以及其他类似名字，会作为过渡桥梁受益巨大（例如 1.6T 可插拔） -> $SIVE、Celestial、Ayar、$POET 是未来几代，比如 CPO（我现在重点看的就是这个） -> VisEra、QD Laser、$ALMU 等等，若你把时间拉到 4 年后，很可能会是下一代（量子点、不同封装类型等） 当然，$LITE 什么都做，$AXTI 什么都能用。 但在每个小超级周期里，每次架构切换所对应的纯敞口是不一样的。 比如，量子点里 InP 还是会用，但占比会更少。或者 CPO 用 DFB 激光阵列而不是 EML。 $LITE 和 $COHR 也许还是会占 50%+。 所以你在“晚”的意义上确实有点靠后。 但对于新的架构世代，你其实又非常早。 我想做的，就是免费把普通散户往新金矿方向指一指。 在机构花 2 万美元买股票研究报告之前，先让大家知道这些。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
-
光子链条整体都在涨
光子学起飞。 $MXL +76.2%（哈哈） $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% 希望你没有卖掉以后去追别的卡点，匿名网友？ https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics go brrr. $MXL +76.2% (lol) $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
-
光子与存储都在加速
谁会想到把 Tangerine Peel 风格公司给资金…… 然后去做空光子和存储里增长最快的名字？ $SNDK 和 $AAOI 最近都在疯狂上涨。 我也看到像 AAOI 这样的名字会继续增长，因为光模块和美国制造供应链都在扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Who thought it was a good idea to give Tangerine Peel inspired companies the funds… To short the fastest growing names in photonics and memory? $SNDK and $AAOI have been on a hyperbolic run. And I see names like AAOI continuing to grow as optical transceiver + Made in America supply chains grow.
-
不要追逐每一轮新瓶颈
别因为每个新闻周期里出现一个新的“瓶颈”就开始 FOMO。 它现在的轮动是： $NVDA GPU -> $MU 存储 -> $IREN 电力 -> $LITE EML -> $SNDK 存储 -> GPU -> $AAOI 收发器 -> 先进封装 -> 变压器 -> $INTC CPU……等等 然后下一个就会变成 $LPK 的玻璃基板，或者日本某种别的冷门材料。 这些大多都横跨好几年。 如果 $LITE 到 2028 年都卖完了，而现在才 2026 年上半年。超大规模云厂商其实已经在把 $AAOI 能做的产能都买走了。 最好的办法可能就是对现有仓位耐心一点。 因为你追当前新闻周期，大概率只会错过某个突然拉起来的绿柱。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle. It’s going from: $NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan. Most of these span multi-years. If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make. It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions. Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.
-
宏观回调很正常
@Spunkybunny520 今天从 $AAOI 到 $AMSC 的所有名字，都因为宏观因素出现了健康回调。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Spunkybunny520 Everything from $AAOI to $AMSC today had a healthy correction from macro.
-
AAOI 和 AXTI 也走对了
我之前发过 $AAOI 从 30 美元到 65 美元再到 80 美元的看法。现在已经到 150 美元了。 $AXTI 也是一样，如果你三个月前问我，这 5 只名字里每一个都会不一样。AXT 现在也从 12 美元涨到 82 美元。 我是说，市场总会变，名字也会变。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was posting about $AAOI $30 -> $65 -> $80. It's now $150. Same thing with $AXTI, if you asked me three months ago, all 5 names would be different. AXT is now $82 from $12. I see valuations as elevated, but I'm still personally holding. I really think they're all compelling long term, I'm just talking about shorter-term entry points.
-
上游供应链主要在海外
@MisterPariPassu 很多上游供应链并不在美国。 它们主要集中在日本、韩国、越南、台湾等等。通常在美国上市的股票，价格更偏向于按前瞻 12 个月计价。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MisterPariPassu A lot of the upstream supply chains are not in the US. Mostly concentrated in Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. Normally US-listed equities more priced in at a certain point in time. It's just rarer to find an $AAOI, $AEHR, sitting around.
-
两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
-
Amazon 的 warrant 协议会带来放量
@PhotonCap 基本上每次 $AMZN 有像 $ALAB 2024、$AAOI 2026 这种 warrant 协议时，量产订单都会起飞。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap Basically every time $AMZN has these warrant agreements like $ALAB 2024, $AAOI 2026, volume orders go brrr
-
分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
原推 ↗英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
-
HPS.A 已经涨很多
$HPS.A 自从我两周前发 thesis 以来已经涨了 21%。 可惜不是所有东西都能像 $AXTI 那样每两周涨 100%？ 如果变压器瓶颈真的会持续很多年…… 有时候还是要等市场把这些定价进去。 $AEHR 或 $AAOI 那种几周内就三位数的涨幅，可能把预期拉得太高了…… 10% 年化回报在市场里通常就已经不错了？ 目前它涨了 21%，但还有人问这算不算好，我还是希望它将来继续走出三位数回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
$HPS.A is up 21% since my thesis 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, not everything can go up 100% every 2 weeks like $AXTI? If the transformers bottleneck is that extreme for multiple years… Sometimes it’s better to wait for markets to price that in. $AEHR or $AAOI triple digit rallies in few week timeframes probably set unrealistic expectations… Even 10% return yearly is usually good in markets? This has been 21% so far and I have comments asking if this is still good, but I’m hoping it’s another triple digit return in due time.
-
列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
-
说 RPI 两个月后盘中翻倍，证明自己的 AI 硬件 thesis。
$RPI 今天盘中已经涨到三位数回报了，才两个月。 这说明我年内已经从 $AAOI 到 $LITE，命中了 14 只涨幅 100%+ 的股票。 如果我能在很短时间内写出 14 篇分别对应不同多头、而且它们都翻倍的 thesis……也许我确实还行？ 我最早把它定义成 AI agentic hardware orchestration。 但二月份的时候大家都把我的 thesis 叫成“meme”。 （特别感谢 FT、Reuters、Bloomberg） 不过我当时就指出了营收加速，预计会比共识高出 3 倍。财报也验证了我的估计。 现在它正在被重新定价成一家 AI 硬件公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
$RPI hit triple digit % return intraday today, just 2 months later. That’s 14 different stocks I’ve called YTD from $AAOI to $LITE that hit 100%+ returns. Maybe if I’m able to write a thesis on 14 separate longs that double in a short time period… I’m decent at it? I was the first person to long it as AI agentic hardware orchestration. But everyone called my thesis a "Meme" back in Feb. (Special S/O to FT, Reuters, Bloomberg) But I called out revenue acceleration expecting a 3x beat compared to consensus. And their earnings report validated my estimates. It's now being re-rated as an AI hardware company.
-
批评做空要做在基本面差的公司上。
$AAOI 和 $SNDK： 它们正是为什么你不该跟着那些以 Tangerine peel 命名的对冲基金走的完美例子…… 如果你要做空，就去做空基本面很差的公司。 而不是去做空光子和存储超级周期里两个最大的受益者？ 我实在理解不了他们交易背后的逻辑。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI and $SNDK: Are the perfect examples why you don’t follow hedge funds named after Tangerine peels… Like if you’re going short, do it with companies with terrible fundamentals. Not two of the largest beneficiaries of the photonics and memory supercycles? I struggle to understand the reasoning behind their trades.
-
说自己最近 thesis 的一堆名字都跑赢大盘。
它们还在那儿。 只是现在已经很难说什么了…… 当我最近写出来的 thesis，像 $HPS.A、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE、$NBIS、Win、Shunsin、$AEHR、$TSEM、$SOI 以及更多很多很多我提到的名字…… 都就是在持续跑赢市场。 年内 +1,116.29% 还不算差，对吧 chat？
原推 ↗英文原文
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
-
周 1 ETF 组合大涨，验证了精选跟随的回报。
Serenity 粉丝精选的“超球形 10 倍 ETF”表现。 第 1 周：+12.39% $AEHR：+56.72%（$45.08 -> $70.65） $AAOI：+39.63%（$108.86 -> $152.00） $SIVE：+35.35%（9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK） $ENAFF：+31.58%（$1.71 -> $2.25） $AL2SI：+25.44%（28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR） $ENVX：+21.30%（$5.07 -> $6.15） $BZAI：+18.99%（$1.79 -> $2.13） $POET：+16.04%（$6.11 -> $7.09） $WATT：+14.81%（$15.8 -> $18.14） $HGRAF：+14.48%（$4.49 -> $5.14） $VLN：+13.79%（$1.16 -> $1.32） $LPK.DE：+13.20%（6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR） $FLY：+13.09%（$33.16 -> $37.50） $VPG：+11.63%（$44.7 -> $49.90） $PLAB：+9.86%（$40.87 -> $44.90） $TRT：+8.33%（$5.88 -> $6.37） $EQR.AX：+7.94%（.315 AUD -> .34 AUD） $LASR：+7.92%（$60.7 -> $65.51） $ASPI：+6.67%（$4.2 -> $4.48） $P4O.DE：+5.69%（6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR） $EOS.AX：+3.11%（$9.00 -> $9.28） $ADUR：-0.29%（$10.37 -> $10.34） $MITK：-2.52%（$13.9 -> $13.55） $ALCJ：-3.41%（2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR） $TMC：-5.01%（$4.59 -> $4.36） $QURE：-9.94%（$17.21 -> $15.50） $EONR：-20.00%（$.9 -> $.72） Top 3: 1. $AEHR：+56.72% 2. $AAOI：+39.63% 3. $SIVE：+35.35% 值得一提的是 $ENAFF，回报 31.58%。 加权平均是 12.39%。 老实说还不错，大家只用一周就跑赢了年初到现在的指数回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Follower Picked Hyperbolic 10x ETF Performance. Week 1: +12.39% $AEHR: +56.72% ($45.08 -> $70.65) $AAOI: +39.63% ($108.86 -> $152.00) $SIVE: +35.35% (9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK) $ENAFF: +31.58% ($1.71 -> $2.25) $AL2SI: +25.44% (28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR) $ENVX: +21.30% ($5.07 -> $6.15) $BZAI: +18.99% ($1.79 -> $2.13) $POET: +16.04% ($6.11 -> $7.09) $WATT: +14.81% ($15.8 -> $18.14) $HGRAF: +14.48% ($4.49 -> $5.14) $VLN: +13.79% ($1.16 -> $1.32) $LPK.DE: +13.20% (6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR) $FLY: +13.09% ($33.16 -> $37.50) $VPG: +11.63% ($44.7 -> $49.90) $PLAB: +9.86% ($40.87 -> $44.90) $TRT: +8.33% ($5.88 -> $6.37) $EQR.AX: +7.94% (.315 AUD -> .34 AUD) $LASR: +7.92% ($60.7 -> $65.51) $ASPI: +6.67% ($4.2 -> $4.48) $P4O.DE: +5.69% (6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR) $EOS.AX: +3.11% ($9.00-> $9.28) $ADUR: -0.29% ($10.37 -> $10.34) $MITK: -2.52% ($13.9 -> $13.55) $ALCJ: -3.41% (2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR) $TMC: -5.01% ($4.59 -> $4.36) $QURE: -9.94% ($17.21 -> $15.50) $EONR: -20.00% ($.9 -> $.72) Top 3: 1. $AEHR: +56.72% 2. $AAOI: +39.63% 3. $SIVE: +35.35% Honorable mention $ENAFF with a 31.58% return. Weighted average was 12.39%. Honestly not bad everyone, you beat year index returns in just 1 week.
-
回顾一年内粉丝、订阅和 YTD 收益暴涨。
老实说……我现在也不知道该怎么形容了？ 一年不到，粉丝从 0 到 15.5 万+，订阅者到 1 万…… 年内收益 900%+…… 靠着 $AAOI 到 $LITE 等 13+ 只个股在 4 个月里实现三位数回报。 你们可以叫我 aura farming 的 Serenity Jin-woo（关于这个话题的最后一帖，我发誓，1 万这个数字看起来就是挺酷的）。 玩笑归玩笑，谢谢大家给我这个机会。我真心希望能给散户社区带来一些改变。 我也已经厌倦了机构收割散户，或者看到 2000 美元以上的付费墙，所以希望能把信息发现 / 综合整理这道鸿沟补起来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Honestly... I don't even know at this point? 0 to 155,000+ followers, 10,000 subscribers... in under a year. 900%+ year to date... Off 13+ individual stocks from $AAOI to $LITE hitting triple digits returns in 4 months. Call me aura farming Serenity Jin-woo (last post about this topic i swear, 10,000 just looks cool). Jokes aside, thanks everyone for this opportunity. I genuinely want to make a difference to the retail community. Getting tired of institutions shafting retail or seeing $2000+ paywalls so hope to bridge the gap in information discovery/synthesis.
-
调侃 AAOI 和 TSEM 的看涨期权本可带来大涨。
@pepemoonboy 你的 $AAOI 看涨期权和 $TSEM 去哪了 😢。那些本来应该会赚得很猛。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Where'd your $AAOI calls and $TSEM go 😢. Those would have printed super hard
-
回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
-
把 Sandisk 和 AAOI 的空头当作上涨燃料，认为市场低估了前向增长。
$SNDK 就是为什么你不该信那些以橘子命名的券商 / 研究机构的绝佳例子。 Sandisk 和 $AAOI 的远期盈利压缩得非常厉害。 我认为空头只是这轮上涨的燃料…… 因为做空的人根本不理解前向增长、瓶颈以及 TAM 的极度扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SNDK is a perfect example why you don’t trust firms named after tangerines. Forward earnings compresses extremely hard with Sandisk and $AAOI. My opinion is that shorts are just fuel to the rally… Since people who took the other end of the trade, show a lack of understanding of forward growth, bottlenecks, and extreme TAM expansion.
-
认为 AAOI 还会继续上行，并会受超大规模客户需求外溢带动。
@TVAFR786 从 30 美元到 150 美元，5 倍回报。你管这叫“套牢”？ 如果你真觉得它高估了，那就去做空试试。 在我看来，它是下一个 $LITE，而且美国很快会拥有最大的 1.6T 容量。 超大规模客户的需求外溢还会大量流向 $AAOI 和 $COHR。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TVAFR786 $30 -> $150, 5x return. “Bagholding”. Try shorting it then if you believe it’s overvalued. Imo it’s the next $LITE and has the largest 1.6T capacity in America soon. There’s going to be a ton of hyperscaler demand spillover into $AAOI and $COHR
-
强调自己很早就在讲 AAOI。
@SidkMena 我从 $30 的时候就一直在讲 $AAOI 了？感觉大家其实有好几次机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SidkMena I’ve been talking about $AAOI since $30? Feels like people had multiple chances lol
-
称 AAOI 强势上涨，市场仍低估了光学公司的需求可见度。
对……我现在状态很猛。 $AAOI +10.65% 在 $LITE 最新的 backlog 报告之后，市场对这类票还是不够看多。 光通信公司的需求可见度一直能延伸到 2029 年以后……
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah… I’m cooking super hard. $AAOI +10.65% People aren’t bullish enough after the new $LITE backlog report. The demand visibility lasts past 2029 for optical companies… https://t.co/XCh0QUFPUl
-
回顾自己挖到 IQE 的大涨机会，并表示下一只 10 倍股候选还在验证。
我挖到 $IQE 这只票真的做得挺猛的？又是一个巨大的三位数收益。 今天上涨了 23%+。 我之前说过，下一个像 $AXTI 那样的 10 倍股，可能会是 $AAOI、$IQE 或 $SIVE 中的一个。 我们看看最后是谁赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
I cooked pretty hard finding $IQE? Another massive triple digit gain. Up 23%+ today. I said earlier that next $AXTI 10x would be either $AAOI, $IQE, or $SIVE. We'll see which one ends up winning. https://t.co/v8rAHL8Wjk
-
认为 LITE 的 backlog 和 AAOI 的自制能力都指向极强需求，AAOI 的市值目标开始显得可行。
我不确定大家是不是还没完全理解： $LITE 的 backlog 订单已经排到 2028 年，这说明需求极强，而且产能明显不足。 随后在超大规模客户需求外溢的二阶效应下： 猜猜美国被预测会拥有最大的 800G/1.6T 产能的是谁？ $AAOI。 他们自己制造 InP 激光器，自己设计收发器，还自己组装。 如果 $AAOI 能把产能爬坡执行到位，那大概率都会直接转化为营收，因为产品已经全部卖光了。 我从 50 亿美元市值推到 400 亿美元市值的目标价，现在看起来越来越可能了？
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm not sure people understand yet: $LITE backlog order fill into 2028 signals extreme demand. And a lack of capacity. Then by second order effect of hyperscaler demand spillover: Guess who is projected to have the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in America? $AAOI. They fab their own inp lasers, design their own transceivers, and assemble it. If $AAOI can execute on capacity ramp, that likely all translates into revenue due to everything being sold out. My $40B MC price target from $5B is starting to look more and more likely?
-
承认 Soitec 近月涨幅一般，在光子学篮子里表现落后。
抱歉各位，Soitec（$SOI）自上个月以来只涨了 39.28%。 不幸的是，它在我的光子学组合里是表现落后的那只。 不可能每一只都像 $AXTI 或 $AAOI 那样隔月就翻三位数。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sorry everyone, Soitec ( $SOI ) is only up 39.28% since last month. Unfortunately, they were an underperformer in my photonics basket. Not everything can go up triple digits every other month like $AXTI or $AAOI. https://t.co/OwlOzugf68
-
相信 AAOI 有朝一日能到 400 亿市值，关键在执行。
@Yolo365247isme 是啊，我相信 $AAOI 总有一天能到 400 亿美元市值……他们的核心就是执行。 毕竟超大规模客户现在就是在买他们能买到的一切。我们接下来一年看看结果如何吧，对我个人来说，风险 / 回报是值得的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Yolo365247isme Yeah I believe in $40B MC $AAOI one day… their whole name of the game is execution. Since hyperscalers are just buying anything they can make. We’ll see how it turns out over the next year, risk/reward was worth it for me personally.
-
分析光子学超级周期下的CPO/激光技术路线机遇，SIVE作为小市值激光标的具有独特供应链位置。
光子学“超级周期”有许多细微的架构变化。如果你在去年错过了$LITE，今年可以通过CPO/激光来抢先布局下一个周期。$SIVE是我相对小众的激光敞口标的。他们参与在$JBL的1.6T LRO、$MRVL的Celestial、O-Net到超大规模业者。这对于一家市值约3.5亿美元的公司来说极为罕见。如果要我类比：类似于$AAOI在2025年的情况，或现在的$AEHR——正处于批量生产前的资质认证周期。正因如此，散户只看今天财务数据（负eps或capex支出）时会误解公司情况。而且与批量生产/capex支出相关的dfb激光扩产执行不确定性，已通过Win Semi被去风险化。然而看起来从2026年下半年开始会持续爬坡到2029年以后。可能在时间上稍早一些……但我认为这是对未来即将到来的趋势的一个不错研判。稀释是真实风险。但很多担忧已经被定价到约3.5亿美元市值里，尤其当$AVGO或AlChip这样的公司可以收购$SIVE用于垂直整合或干扰Marvell的CPO计划时。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers. $SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure. They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers. Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company. If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume. Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend. And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi. However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026. Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming. Dilution is a real risk. But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
-
认为市值更小、增长更快的标的通常回报更高。
@kishwarAI 如果客户结构类似，通常市值越低，增长越快。 从收发器端看，$AAOI 的 ROI 可能比 $LITE / $COHR 更高。 然后在晶圆代工端，Win 的表现可能会比 $TSEM 更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
@kishwarAI Lower the marketcap, higher the growth usually if they have similar customer profiles. $AAOI probably highest ROI vs $LITE / $COHR on transceiver side. Then Win probably outperforms $TSEM on the foundry side.
-
判断 SIVE / Win 会受新一轮 CW 激光周期带动。
$SIVE / Win 会受 2027 年下一轮架构超级周期里的 CW 激光推动。我现在只是像去年布局 $LITE 那样，提前在 H1 先埋伏。 你大概也知道，他们已经进了 $MRVL 的 Celestial、$JBL 的 1.6T LRO，以及 O-Net，所以到 2029 年会有很大的放量。 像 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 这些则是当前的光收发器周期。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE / Win benefits from CW lasers from the next architectural supercycle in 2027. I'm just frontrunning that now H1 like $LITE last year. You already kinda know they're in $MRVL Celestial, $JBL 1.6T LRO, and O-Net so thats huge ramp into 2029. Stuff like $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight are current optical transceiver cycles.
-
认为美国光子学三巨头将受 AI 需求激增带动。
我们现在正处于光子学超级周期。 美国这三家 $COHR、$LITE、$AAOI 预计会受需求激增推动而表现不错。 最新报道： “Lumentum 正在经历来自人工智能行业的需求激增，其订单管线已经排满到 2028 年”
原推 ↗英文原文
We're now in the photonics supercycle. The trio from $COHR, $LITE, $AAOI in America are expected to perform well from a surge in demand. New Report: " Lumentum is experiencing a surge in demand from the artificial intelligence sector, with its order pipeline now fully booked through 2028 "
-
调侃要多少只三位数股票才够“逃离下层阶级”。
@0xInitialAce 你还需要多少只三位数涨幅的股票，才能逃离“下层阶级”？ 感觉 $AAOI 4 倍、$AXTI 5 倍、$AEHR 2 倍、$IQE 2 倍、$LITE 2 倍，再加上别的，应该已经够了吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
@0xInitialAce How many more triple digit stocks do you need to escape the underclass? Feels like $AAOI 4x, $AXTI 5x, $AEHR 2x, $IQE 2x, $LITE 2x, and others should be enough?
-
复盘自己在对冲不利后仍有 759% YTD，并强调择股和催化时点的重要。
不，我在今天整体反弹之后，年初至今还是保守地涨了 759%。 对冲拖累太多了。 如果不是指数和很多个股，比如 $RDDT，在宏观压力下跌得太厉害，我本来会涨得更多。 但如果你挑的是像 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 这样的精选赢家…… 在超大规模客户供应链里： 结果就是，你真的有可能跑赢市场。 我确实觉得，找到每个行业里的关键玩家并且把催化时点踩准，比看上去更难。 比如 $TSEM 在我买入之前基本全年横盘，然后 3 周里反弹了 90%，所以时点也很重要（比如 OFC 公告）。 而且我在找到那个未知的 $TSM COUPE 玻璃衬底供应商之后，还因此得了 PTSD…… 结果他们没多久又被 Apollo 收购了。 所以也不是总能开心收场。 但如果我的想法帮助了别人跑赢指数，或者看清前沿行业的方向，那我还是很高兴的。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, I’m still at a conservative 759% YTD after today’s overall rally. Lost too much from hedging. Would probably be up more if indexes and many individual names like $RDDT weren’t so down from macro. But if you pick selective winners like $AAOI or $AEHR … in hyperscaler supply chains: Turns out it’s possible outperform markets? I do think it’s a tad harder than it looks finding important players in each sector and timing catalysts. $TSEM was basically flat the entire year until I bought, then it rallied 90% in 3 weeks, so timing important too (eg. OFC announcements). And I’ve developed PTSD after finding the unknown $TSM COUPE glass substrates supplier… Only to watch them get bought out by Apollo shortly after. So not always having a good time. But glad if my ideas helped others outperform indexes or see where frontier industries are heading to.
-
亚马逊因Anthropic模型基于Trainium训练消息反弹，带动MRVL、AAOI等相关股
顺便解释一下你们可能想知道的$AMZN今天为何反弹：新消息显示Anthropic的Mythos及其最新模型很可能是基于Amazon Trainium训练的。这对亚马逊生态系统来说意义重大，从$MRVL到$AAOI都受益于Anthropic。就像今年早些时候谷歌TPU生态因Gemini而反弹，包括$LITE一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why $AMZN rallied today: New news that Anthropic Mythos and their latest models were likely trained on Amazon Trainium. This is big for Amazon’s ecosystem from $MRVL to $AAOI due to Anthropic. Just like how Google’s TPU ecosystem rallied earlier this year like $LITE from Gemini.
-
建议在下一次回调中考虑更大市值的高增长半导体公司。
@NabQ321 问得好！$AAOI、$AEHR 是两只 beta 极高、增长极快的股票。 下一次回调时，也许可以看看 $COHR、$TSEM、$SMTC、$MRVL、$INTC 或 $FN 这些更大的公司？ 像 AOI 或 AEHR 这样的公司其实非常稀少。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NabQ321 Good question! $AAOI, $AEHR are two extremely high beta, fast growth stocks. Maybe some larger companies like $COHR, $TSEM, $SMTC, $MRVL, $INTC or $FN on the next drop? Companies like AOI or AEHR are pretty rare to come by.
-
感谢对方对去年 AAOI 等共同多头的认可。
@yianisz 谢谢！看到像去年 $AAOI 这种我们共同持有的多头最后表现这么好，挺有意思的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yianisz Thanks! Fun to see a lot of our shared longs like $AAOI from last year turn out pretty well.
-
调侃空头正在被 AAOI 碾压。
@misrlcomp 那些做空 $AAOI 的人现在真是被一路碾过去了，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@misrlcomp All those $AAOI shorts are getting mowed down lol
-
回顾自己在 AAOI 上的高确定性多头和过往 thesis 得到验证。
听见了吗，匿名网友？？ 我高确定性的多头 $AAOI 已经涨了极其夸张的幅度。 我在 2025 年关于超大规模客户的帖子里写过： “我们大概率会看到资金流向像 $COHR、Innolight、$LITE 和 $AAOI 这样的公司，作为 2026 年的一个主题。” thesis。验证。正在发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon??? My high conviction long $AAOI is up extreme amounts. Post from 2025 around hyperscalers: “We’ll likely see investments pour to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and $AAOI as a theme in 2026.” Thesis. Validation. Live. https://t.co/A3V6eRaXeH
-
表示自己仍持有 AAOI，并看好其未来达到 400 亿市值。
@raghavrmehta 我会继续拿着 $AAOI，期待它未来某天能到 400 亿美元市值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@raghavrmehta I’m hanging on to $AAOI for potential $40B MC one day.
-
强调自己在市场上涨前就公开给出 thesis，并嘲讽 IREN 看空者。
听见了吗，匿名网友？？ $AAOI 和 $AEHR 这周都已经涨了 50%+。 我会在任何行情启动之前就公开写出自己的 thesis，而且不会收成千上万美元来给你看股票池。 如果你还在听那些 $IREN 投资者说什么“因为 2025 年市盈率所以会做空或者要崩”，那不如去玩 PayPal 或 $SPY 吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? $AAOI and $AEHR both up 50%+ this week alone. I post my thesis publicly BEFORE any movement happens and without charging thousands to see stock picks. If you’re listening to $IREN investors why these are “short or going to dump because of 2025 P/E ratios” maybe stick to PayPal or $SPY.
-
认为 IREN 多头转而做空 AEHR / AAOI 反而是在添柴。
@si0xac4742 是啊，很多 $IREN 投资者都被我惹毛了，还试图去做空 $AEHR 或 $AAOI…… 不过我觉得他们现在只是给火上浇油而已，因为 $AEHR 已经涨了 24%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@si0xac4742 Yeah a lot of the $IREN investors got mad at me and tried shorting $AEHR or $AAOI... I think they're just adding fuel to the fire at this point since $AEHR is up 24%.
-
看好 AEHR，并指出很多散户误解资格认证周期和量产爬坡。
是的，我后来把仓位更集中在 $AEHR 上了，因为它拿到了像 $LITE、$AVGO 或 $COHR 这样的新硅光一线客户。 很多散户误解了资格认证周期 -> 量产爬坡，所以才去做空。 看到散户试图做空 $AAOI 和 $AEHR，最后却在超级周期里遭遇无限亏损，真的很夸张。
原推 ↗英文原文
yeah i decided have a higher concentration on $AEHR after the new silicon photonics t1 customer like $LITE, $AVGO, or $COHR. a ton of of retail investors misunderstood qualification cycles -> volume ramp so they went short. its crazy to see retail try and short $AAOI and $AEHR just to face infinite losses in a supercycle.
-
认为 SIVE 在 CW 激光赛道被低估，且随着 CPO 和光学扩产，估值有望抬升。
当你把从 $COHR 到 $AAOI 的 CW 激光龙头公司名单都过一遍时， 就会发现 $SIVE 以 3 亿美元市值还站在那里，真的很夸张……其他玩家几乎都已经是几十亿市值了。 而它还是 $JBL 1.6T LRO 光收发器和大约 $MRVL Celestial 光子项目的光源供应商（如今还受到 $NVDA 20 亿美元投资的加速）。 从 Furukawa 到 Yuanjie，整个行业最近都被重新定价了。 但我确实认为市场漏掉了这只，因为他们预计从 H2 开始量产爬坡（来自 $POET 的业绩提示），而 CPO 和光学扩产会带来多年指数级 TAM 扩张。 下行风险在于资产负债表，但我认为他们的光子业务实体未来大概率会在纳斯达克上市，而且作为超大规模客户的光源供应商，价值远高于当前估值。 而且这很可能会在不久后带来估值溢价。 我们看看结果是不是这样吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
When you go through the list of the leading CW laser companies from $COHR to $AAOI. It’s very impressive $SIVE stands out at $300m still… compared to the every other player in the billions. This is despite being the light source for $JBL 1.6T LRO optical transceivers and ~ $MRVL Celestial photonics program (now accelerated by $NVDA $2B investment). The sector from Furukawa to Yuanjie has been re-rated recently. But I do think markets missed this one, as they start volume ramp est. H2 (from $POET earnings) with multi year exponential TAM expansion from CPO and optical scale up. Downside risk is balance sheet, but I do think the likely Nasdaq listing for their photonics entity + scaling as the hyperscaler light source far exceeds current valuations. And will likely drive valuation premiums in a matter of time. We’ll see if this turns out right or not.
-
调侃伊朗停火后市场转绿，空头可能被打脸。
这肯定是我见过最大的 taco supreme 了吧？ 昨天还在说：“伊朗作为文明完了” 今天就变成：“世界和平万岁，伊朗可以重建，美国正在帮助海峡通行，能赚大钱了” 现在做空 $AAOI 到 $LITE 和 $SMH 的人太多了，可能要被狠狠干一顿。
原推 ↗英文原文
This has gotta be the biggest taco supreme I’ve ever seen? Yesterday: “GG Iran as a civilization” Today: “Hurray for World Peace, Iran can reconstruct, US is helping flow of passage through the strait. Big money to be made” Too many shorts on $AAOI to $LITE and $SMH right now that might be screwed.
-
认为很多有粉丝的人却不懂光子学和收发器需求，只会看历史营收和画线。
有很多粉丝的人居然会如此自信地看错光子学和光收发器需求，真的很离谱。 他们只会看过去的营收，再在图上乱画几条线……然后一周之内就把自己的粉丝带着一起亏掉 53%+，在 $AAOI 上无限止损。 这只说明很多人根本不知道自己在说什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's crazy that people with a lot of followers are so confidently wrong about photonics and optical transceiver demand. They just go off former revenue than draw squiggly lines on a chart...And then proceed to lose all their followers 53%+ in a week with infinite losses on $AAOI. Just goes to show so many people don't know what they're talking about.
-
嘲讽那些不懂光子学、去做空自己看多股票的人。
看到一些同样不懂光子学的蠢货，去做空我看多的那些股票，结果像 $AAOI 一样被狠狠干爆，挺有意思的。 也难怪很多人会这么火大。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's amusing to see some of the same idiots who don't understand photonics. Trying to short "shtcos" I long then getting wrecked like on $AAOI. Makes sense why many are frustrated. https://t.co/tUyvecSCkr
-
总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
原推 ↗英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
-
抱怨高粉账号收费昂贵，却又批评免费分享的 alpha。
我已经受够了那些 10 万以上粉丝的账号——他们一年收 2000 多美元，只是为了让你看他们选了什么票…… 然后又会对那些免费分享从 $AAOI 到 $AXTI 这些名字的人感到不爽…… 还会用去年营收去评判 $AEHR 或 $SIVE，却完全不理解 2027 年的 CPO / SiPh 放量。 感觉这些账号终有一天会被慢慢淘汰，因为大家会意识到，alpha 可以免费拿，不必花几千美元去买。
原推 ↗英文原文
Getting tired of 100K+ follower accounts that who charge $2,000+ a year just to see their stock picks… That then get frustrated over someone who shares names from $AAOI to $AXTI for free… And then judge $AEHR or $SIVE by previous year revenue without understanding CPO/SiPH ramp in 2027. Feels like these accounts will get eroded over time as people realize they can get alpha for free instead of paying thousands for it.
-
称伊朗停火消息带动市场整体转绿。
如果你在想为什么从 $AAOI 到 $RKLB 一切突然都变绿了： 特朗普刚刚同意伊朗停火两周。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're wondering why everything just ticked green from $AAOI to $RKLB: Trump just agreed to a 2 week Iran Ceasefire. https://t.co/znW8nnzW6S
-
认为 SOI 的 CPO / SiPh 放量需要时间，但下半年会逐步追上。
@Niatama195432 $SOI 的 CPO / SiPh 放量还需要一点时间。自从我最初的 thesis 以来，它也就涨了大约 11% 左右，不过这取决于入场价。 当前收发器周期里像 $AAOI 和 $LITE 这样的公司已经完成了重估，但我预计其他标的会在 H2 追上来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Niatama195432 $SOI takes a bit of time for CPO/siph ramp. It's only up ~11% or so since my original thesis, but depends on entry point. Lot of the current transceiver cycle players like $AAOI and $LITE have re-rated currently, but I expect the others to catch up H2.
-
认为 AAOI 的 ATM 发行窗口可能已经结束，自己早期建仓获得了 4 倍回报。
@Kapstahoon 感觉 $AAOI 的 ATM 发行窗口已经结束了，因为它现在都涨到 126 美元了。 我第一次做多大概是在 30 美元附近，所以这又是一个 4 倍的收益。可惜我的仓位集中度不高，大部分加仓是在 60-80 美元附近。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Kapstahoon Feels like the $AAOI ATM has closed since it’s trading at $126 now. I first longed around $30 so that’s another 4x added to the list. My concentration was low unfortunately, and heavier adds around $60-80. https://t.co/uV2eokOKSW
-
回顾 LITE 四个月内大涨，并表示更偏好激光股做光子学敞口。
看到自己的 thesis 实时兑现，真的会有一种很自豪的感觉。 $LITE 从 371 美元涨到 836 美元，只用了过去 4 个月。 在宏观这么差的情况下，这对一家 580 亿美元市值的公司来说也不算差吧？ 这还是在指数和很多个股都下跌、而像 $POET 这样的光子股以及像 $RDDT 这样的个股年初至今都在跌的时候。 如果要做光子学敞口，我最喜欢的是激光公司，比如 $SIVE、$AAOI 和 Lumentum。 如果宏观环境更好，我预计很多公司的表现会比现在更强。
原推 ↗英文原文
I get a sense of pride when I see a thesis playing out well real time. $LITE $371 -> $836 in the last 4 months. Not bad for a $58B company despite macro? This is while indexes and individual stocks. And photonic stocks like $POET and individual stocks like $RDDT dropped YTD. I tend to like laser companies the most from $SIVE, $AAOI, and Lumentum for photonics exposure. And in a better macro environment, I expect many of them to be up more than they are now.
-
看好 AEHR，但更偏好 LITE、AAOI，认为 SIVE 上行空间最大。
@peedgdev 我看多 $AEHR，但它不是我的第一选择。 如果说光子学板块里我最喜欢的，其实是 $LITE 和 $AAOI。然后上行空间最大的则是 $SIVE。 我最喜欢的是激光敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
@peedgdev Bullish on $AEHR, but not my #1 pick. I'm actually a fan of $LITE and $AAOI in the photonics space the most. Then highest upside is $SIVE. I like laser exposure the most.
-
认为若 2027 年出现量产订单，市场会提前给 AEHR 重新定价。
如果量产订单真在 2027 年落地，$AEHR 现在就会被重新定价。而且在他们这次电话会里，我们会得到更多线索，因为他们已经提到了“来自我们主超大规模客户的重要预测”。 $AAOI 在财报后因为 CEO 提到 2027 年下半年每月 3.78 亿美元的目标，股价直接重估了 2-3 倍。 我不会拿当前近端的资格认证订单去判断明年会走到哪里。
原推 ↗英文原文
Again, if mass orders happen 2027, $AEHR will re-rate today. And we'll get more indication about it in their earnings call now as they signaled "significant forecasts from our lead hyperscaler". $AAOI got re-rated 2-3x after earnings because the CEO signaled $378m/month H2 2027. I would not look at current near-term qualification orders in financials to indicate where it's heading next year.
-
Aehr获超大规模客户量产订单确认，从资格认证转入大规模生产阶段。
$AEHR财报： - 当前积压订单：季度末为3870万美元，"有效积压订单"为5090万美元 - FY26下半年指引：维持对下半年2500万至3000万美元收入的预期 对财报的看法： 可以直接忽略当前财报，主要指标看的是超大规模客户在H2的产量爬坡。 产量爬坡信号确认： 1. "我们看到主要超大规模客户对我们的Sonoma系统发出了大量预测订单，用于其定制AI处理器ASIC的高产量生产老化测试" 2. "我们预计该客户近期将追加大量系统的后续生产订单，计划在Aehr的2027财年交付" 这正是市场预期的$AEHR从资格认证转向大规模量产的过程，类似$AAOI，我们得到了这个确认。 H2可能是进一步确认某大客户产量爬坡将延续到2027年。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR earnings: - Current Backlog: $38.7 million as of the end of the quarter, with an "effective backlog" of $50.9 million -H2 FY26 Guidance: Reiterated expectations for $25 million to $30 million in revenue for the second half of the year Thoughts on earnings: Can just ignore current earnings, main indicators are around hyperscaler volume ramp H2. Volume ramp indication confirmations: 1. "We are seeing significant forecasts from our lead hyperscale customer for our Sonoma systems for high-volume production burn-in of their custom AI processor ASICs" 2. "We expect a significant near-term follow-on production order from this customer for a large number of systems to be shipped during Aehr's fiscal year 2027" This is what is expected with $AEHR transitioning from qualification to mass volume like $AAOI and we got that confirmation. H2 is probably more confirmation around siph customer volume ramp into 2027.
-
为自己在 LITE 和 AAOI 上的判断兑现而高兴。
@SinnerReformed1 很高兴 $LITE 和 $AAOI 都让你赚到了！ 是啊，市场大部分都在跌，但如果你挑对了个股赢家，确实有可能跑赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SinnerReformed1 Glad to hear $LITE and $AAOI are treating you well! Yeah most of the market is crashing, but if you pick individual winners it’s possible to outperform. https://t.co/LWsZjwnwhH
-
调侃自己发帖后 LITE、AAOI 出现了直线拉升。
@KDREAM111111 是啊……我也完全不知道为什么在我发完之后，$LITE、$AAOI 之类的票会突然直线拉红，别问我。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KDREAM111111 Yeah... I have zero clue why $LITE, $AAOI and others had vertical green candles right after my post. Don't ask me
-
承认 SOI 近期涨幅一般，并指出并非所有票都能像 LITE、AEHR、AAOI 那样强。
@Michael_Tran_90 是啊，$SOI 自从我买入以来也就涨了 11% 左右，挺遗憾的。 并不是所有票在这种宏观环境下都能像 $LITE、$AEHR 或 $AAOI 那样强势跑赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Michael_Tran_90 Yeah, $SOI is only up 11% from when I bought unfortunately. Not everything hard-outperforms this macro climate like $LITE, $AEHR, or $AAOI.
-
给出光子学 CW 激光瓶颈的个人高 beta 排序。
下一轮光子学 CW 激光瓶颈： 我个人的高 beta 敞口排序： 1. $SIVE：3.02 亿美元 2. $AAOI：83.5 亿美元 3. Yuanjie（688498）：135.5 亿美元 4. $MTSI：174 亿美元 5. $LITE：561 亿美元 6. $COHR：492 亿美元 7. Suzhou Everbright：59.5 亿美元 8. LuxNet（4979.TWO）：17 亿美元 9. Henan Shijia（SHA: 688313）：62 亿美元 10. Furukawa Electric（TYO: 5801）：160.6 亿美元 11. Sumitomo Electric（TYO: 5802）：451.13 亿美元 12. Mitsubishi Electric（TYO: 6503）：712 亿美元 13. $AVGO：1.53 万亿美元 最后我自己拿了最高敞口的几个（但因为利益冲突，避开了港股标的）。
原推 ↗英文原文
For the next photonics CW laser chokepoint. Personal high-beta exposure tierlist: 1. $SIVE: $302m 2. $AAOI: $8.35B 3. Yuanjie (688498): $13.55B 4. $MTSI: $17.4B 5. $LITE: $56.1B 6. $COHR: $49.2B 7. Suzhou Everbright: $5.95B 8. LuxNet (4979.TWO): $1.7B 9. Henan Shijia (SHA: 688313): $6.2B 10. Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801): $16.06B 11. Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802): $45.113B 12. Mitsubishi Electric (TYO: 6503): $71.2B 13. $AVGO: $1.53T Ended up taking the highest exposure picks personally (but avoided HK listed names due to conflict of interest).
-
认为 AAOI 的 5000 万美元相对未来扩产资本开支并不夸张。
@nasdaq90 5000 万美元，相比为了把美国做成最大的 1.6T 产能、用于 InP fab 和封装扩产所需要的 70 亿美元，其实差别很大。 而现在却是 5200 万股流通股里要再加 5000 万股，至于到底是为了什么，没人知道。
原推 ↗英文原文
@nasdaq90 $500m relative to $7B for InP fab and assembly expansion for becoming the biggest 1.6T capacity in America for $AAOI. Is materially different than 50m shares of 52m share float for nobody knows what.
-
认为现在还很早，自己更偏好少数纯标的和更稳健的名字。
还不算晚进场，实际上还非常早，正处在下一个拐点的起点。 如果让我现在选两只更小、更纯的标的，我个人会喜欢 $SIVE 和 $AEHR，再加一只 $AAOI 也许不错。 更稳一点的话，Win、$SOI、$MRVL 看起来都很扎实？ 可选名字其实很多……
原推 ↗英文原文
Not really late too the party, it’s extremely early and at the beginning of the next inflection point. I personally like $SIVE, $AEHR if I had to pick two more smaller purer play companies around now, maybe throw in $AAOI on the next drop. For safer, Win, $SOI, $MRVL seem solid? Quite a lot of names…
-
批评用传统模型建模CPO放量期收入，分享如何识别光子学超级周期中的纯正概念股。
请停止尝试为2025-2026年CPO/SiPH放量期的收入建立模型了……当我上个月在约115美元（现已四舍五入到200美元）查看$TSEM时，前瞻市盈率压缩至约16-18倍（在成长情景下低至10-12倍）。同样的逻辑也适用于$AEHR/$SIVE/$SOI/Win Semi等其他标的。这是2026年上半年。量产的放量将出现在2026年下半年。我们正处在一个大规模超级周期的最早期阶段，而这些是我在光子学下一代架构变革中最纯正的概念股配置：用于测试、CW激光器、衬底和晶圆代工的公司，在光子学超级周期的新范式转换中占有一席之地。像$LITE或$AAOI这样我去年长期持有的公司已经跨越了多个周期。然而，最大的回报来自于提前预判哪些公司将在未来收入/TAM增长中获得最大收益（这部分尚未反映在当前股价中）。不是用过去2年的历史回报来计算公允价值。而且当我们看一个庞大的新型光子学TAM（lightcounting的牛市情景预测为1100亿美元以上），主要由使用CW激光器作为示例的架构驱动，或在良率方面遇到挑战。许多这类公司很可能会出现大幅重新定价。尤其是当我们看到下一代架构变革开始发生时，时间点大约在2026年下半年。
原推 ↗英文原文
Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp… When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now). The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios) Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names. This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026. We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics: For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle. Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles. However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings). Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value. And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields. A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard. Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.
-
AEHR因拿下光学收发器大客户而上涨，若进入量产阶段股价或超$60
这不是贪婪，这是基本面。$AEHR价格上涨是因为他们拿下了光学收发器(optical transceivers)领域的领导者。这可能是$AVGO、$LITE、$COHR、$MRVL、$CSCO或其他公司。市场是前瞻性的。以我之见，如果它进入像$AAOI那样的批量订单增长阶段，股价将会超越60美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's not greed, it's fundamentals. $AEHR went up in price is because they landed the leader in optical transcivers. This could be $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR, $MRVL, $CSCO or others. Markets are forward looking. IMO it will blow away $60+ if it shifts into mass order ramp like $AAOI earnings.
-
强调股票是正和游戏，只有稀释严重时才会伤害长期持有人。
也许你还没意识到，股票和 Melania Coin 不一样，是正和游戏。只要方向判断对了，长期每个人都会受益。 人们买 $LITE、$AEHR 或 $AAOI，并不会变成“退出流动性”；随着价值创造和营收增长，价格是会持续上涨的。 公司会创造经济价值，并通过分红之类的方式回馈散户股东。 当然也有例外，比如 $SNAP 或 $IREN，如果管理层试图通过过度 SBC / 稀释来抽干价值，那就会出问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not sure if you realize yet, but stocks are positive sum gain unlike Melania Coin. Everyone benefits long term if someone is right directionally. It's not exit liquidity when people buy $LITE, $AEHR, or $AAOI and the prices go up over time because of value creation + revenue growth. Companies create economic value and return that to retail shareholders through things like dividends. There's exceptions with things like $SNAP or $IREN if there's excessive SBC/dilution if management tries to drain value.
-
吐槽 Roundhill 把 AXTI 和 AAOI 加进 meme basket。
@veggiepoultry @roundhill Bro，@roundhill 把 $AXTI 和 $AAOI 加进那个 meme basket 里，真的有点坑我。 不过我觉得加了这两只之后，它反而会跑赢。哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@veggiepoultry @roundhill Bro @roundhill did me dirty adding $AXTI and $AAOI to that meme basket. But I think it will outperform with those new additions lol.
-
看到自己的头像被引用，并对 AAOI 早涨有点意外。
@ConsensusGurus 嘿，那张是我的头像！ 不过是的，$AAOI 之前就 20%+ 上涨真的很奇怪。 我猜算法可能是提前从泄漏里捕捉到的之类。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ConsensusGurus Hey, that's my profile picture there! But yeah it was super weird how $AAOI surged 20%+ before. I'm sure algorithms caught it early from leaks or something.
-
表示自己经历过加密市场，所以能更坦然看待波动，并相信信息公开是正和的。
很高兴听到这些正向反馈！ 我在 2016-2018 年左右也混过加密市场，所以现在 $AXTI 或 $AAOI 这种 +20% / -20% 的波动对我来说已经没什么感觉了。训练心态这方面确实很有帮助，让我面对一天跌 60% 也能稳住。 我相信股票是正和的……所以没必要把信息藏起来。 信息发现 / 整合本来就能让所有人受益，但在过去，信息获取通常一直在帮倒忙，因为机构会卡着不让散户看到，直到某些东西已经涨了 1000% 之后才放出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear the positive feedback! Yeah I was in the crypto market around 2016-2018, so any +20% -20% volatility now with $AXTI or $AAOI feels like nothing. So it's definitely helped train my mentality stuff drop 60% in a day. I believe stocks are positive sum... so there's no reason to try and hide information. Everyone benefits from information discovery/synthesis, but before access to information has worked largely worked against retail given gatekeeping from institutions until after somethings gone up 1000%.
-
感谢别人为自己建基金，但仍强调买入时点很重要。
@bendover 有一个 5 万美元的专门基金围绕我的帖子在运作，这真的太让人受宠若惊了，不过在下单之前还是请先自己做研究！ 而且买入时点也同样非常重要，尤其是我提到像 $AAOI 到 $AEHR 这类名字时。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bendover Very flattering having a $50k dedicated fund around my posts but pls do ur own research before entering any positions first! Also timing the buy is also very important too if I mention anything from $AAOI to $AEHR.
-
列出一篮子“粉丝最爱”的高波动候选 ETF 组合。
Serenity 粉丝最爱的股票：抛物线增长 ETF。 有史以来最令人期待的 ETF： $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 欧元 $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - 0.315 澳元 $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 欧元 $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 欧元 $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 我没听说过这里面三分之一的名字，但如果我的关注者们对某只票有很高的 conviction，觉得它能 10 倍…… 那我也是。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF: The most anticipated ETF of all time: $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 EUR $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - .315 AUD $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 EUR $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 EUR $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 I haven't heard of 1/3rd of these names, but if my followers have high conviction that their name will 10x... So do I.
-
认为 AAOI 自有供应链和产能扩张会带来更高毛利。
@Kaizen_Investor 依我看，大概能有 30%->40% 的提升，凭经验说的。 他们从 InP 激光器 fab 到组装，把整个供应链都放在内部，所以毛利率会随着时间上升。 尤其是当使用老一代 $NVDA 机型的主权数据中心，随着超大规模客户从 800G 转向 1.6T，会买更多 800G。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor 30->40% off the top of my head. They do the entire supply chain in-house from inp laser fab to assembly, so gross margins should go up over time. Especially since sovereign DCs using older gen $NVDA models buy more 800g as hyperscalers move to 1.6T
-
称 AAOI 收到超大客户 7100 万美元新订单，产能翻上去后营收会很夸张。
Applied Optoelectronics（$AAOI）今天说，他们从超大规模客户那里又拿到了一笔 7100 万美元的新订单。 流入的订单源源不断。 如果他们成为美国最大的 800G / 1.6T 产能，而且光学需求真的起飞， 营收转化会相当夸张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ) said it received a new $71 million order from its hyperscaler customer today. The orders flowing in are endless. If they become the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in the US and optical demand does take off. The revenue translation would be pretty insane.
-
认为 AEHR 两年上 420 美元并非不可能。
$AEHR 到 420 美元看起来是迟早的事。 也许两年？ 我不觉得我见过这么多超大规模客户或 AI 公司去给一家 11 亿美元的小公司做资格认证。 上一次还是 $AAOI 在 25 美元时，而现在几个月后已经到 104 美元了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$420 looks inevitable on $AEHR. Maybe 2 years? Don’t think I’ve seen so many hyperscalers or AI companies qualifying a small $1.1B company before? Last time was $AAOI back at $25 and now it’s $104 a few months later. https://t.co/PaYZoCmMNl
-
认为 AAOI 像早期 SNDK，关键取决于执行和产能目标。
@Market_Nick_ $AAOI 看起来像早期的 $SNDK。 成败很大程度上取决于执行，但他们预测自己会从 InP 激光器 fab 到组装，拿下美国最大的 1.6T 产能，这一点挺看多的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Market_Nick_ $AAOI does look like an early $SNDK. Largely dependent on execution, but the fact they project they'll have the largest 1.6T capacity in the US from projections (from inp laser fab to assembly), is pretty bullish.
-
复盘 AAOI 在无重大新闻下上涨 25%+，并强调仓位和信念管理。
而且……$AAOI 从 81 美元涨到 101.26 美元，单日 +25.43%，还没有什么实质性新闻。 也许 Edgewater 那句“光学需求正在指数级增长”的评论也帮了点忙。 不过有几个教训： - 不要靠借来的 conviction 活着。 - Jane Street 会带来不必要的波动。 - 如果你晚上睡不着，大概率是仓位配置错了。 散户在底部因为没有基本面原因就清仓，挺可惜的。等涨回去时，他们已经没有仓位了。 股价未来也可能在 80 和 120 之间来回震荡，谁知道呢。 但中长期我还是有 conviction，觉得 $AAOI 能把执行落地，应该值得比现在的市值高得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
And... $AAOI +25.43% from $81 -> $101.26 off no material news. Maybe the Edgewater comment about "optical demand growing exponentially" helped a bit too. But few lessons to learn: - don't live on borrowed conviction. - Jane Street adds unnecessary volatility. - If you can't sleep at night, you're sizing portfolio concentration wrong. It's unfortunate when retail liquidates their positions at the bottom for no fundamental reason. Then on the way back up, they no longer have positions. Could always keep ping ponging between $80 and $120, who knows. But mid-long term, I have conviction $AAOI can execute, should be worth much higher than the current MC.
-
继续吐槽 Jane Street 给 AAOI 带来不必要波动。
@Stonks_Kitty 是啊……你看看 $AAOI，没消息都能涨 16%。 这就是我为什么不喜欢 Jane Street 一边收割散户，一边给正在上涨的标的增加不必要波动。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Stonks_Kitty Yeah... just look at $AAOI though up 16% off no news. This is why I dislike Jane Street farming retail and adding unnecessary volatility to names on their way up.
-
引用 Lightcounting 认为光互连到 2030 年可到 1000 亿美元，并列出自己偏好的链条标的。
Lightcounting："这不是笔误" 到 2030 年，光互连市场很有可能从 2025 年的约 190 亿美元增长到 1000 亿美元以上。 如果你想看我最喜欢的名字： 复合型：$MRVL、$SMTC CW 激光：$SIVE、$MTSI、$AAOI 晶圆代工：$TSEM、Win Semi 衬底 / 外延：$AXTI、$SOI、$IQE 黄金标准：$LITE、$COHR 下一轮 TAM 扩张的乘数，主要由 CPO / Scale Up 驱动，而这大多由 SiPh 和外部 CW 激光推动。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lightcounting: "This is not a typo" Optical interconnects has a reasonable chance to reach $100B+ by 2030 from ~$19B (2025). If you're looking for my favorite names: Compounders: $MRVL, $SMTC CW Lasers: $SIVE, $MTSI, $AAOI Foundries $TSEM, Win Semi Substrates/Epitaxy: $AXTI, $SOI, $IQE Gold Standard: $LITE, $COHR The next TAM expansion multiplier is CPO/Scale Up, largely driven by SiPh and external CW lasers.
-
认为 AAOI 的美国一体化制造和转商用机会很有价值。
执行风险永远都存在！但我真的很喜欢 $AAOI 这一点：他们把 InP 激光器从 fab（制造）到组装全部都留在美国本土完成。 这不仅让他们有机会拿到类似美光或 SK 海力士那样的估值溢价，还给了他们从商用模式（merchant model）转型，以及向仍然被低估的 TAM 扩张方向切换的选择权。
原推 ↗英文原文
実行リスクは常につきものです！しかし、$AAOI がInPレーザーのファブ（製造）から組み立てに至るまで、すべてをアメリカ国内で完結させているところが本当に気に入っています。 そしてこれにより、彼らはマイクロンやSKハイニックスのようなプレミアム（プレミアム評価）を獲得できるだけでなく、マーチャント・モデル（外販）への移行や、まだ過小評価されているTAM（獲得可能な最大市場規模）の拡大という新たな機会へピボット（方向転換）するためのオプショナリティ（柔軟な選択肢）も得られるのです。
-
重申 AAOI 可能拥有美国最大的 1.6T 产能，市场仍低估其前景。
再提醒一下： $AAOI 预计会拥有美国最大的 1.6T 光收发器产能。 而且在牛市情景下，光学 TAM 预计会扩张到 1000 亿美元（Lightcounting）。 AOI 早先的业绩电话会里就说过：“我们预计很快会在美国拥有最大的……1.6T 收发器产能。” 他们预计 2026 年第三季度开始发货，并且从 2027 年下半年开始，产能会达到每月 3.78 亿美元，也就是如果超大规模客户愿意买他们做出来的任何东西，年化就是 43.5 亿美元。 现在还是 2026 年上半年，所以因为市场波动就开始恐慌还稍微早了点。 因为 AOI 把整个供应链都自己包了，从 InP 激光器 fab、设计到组装全都自有。 而且他们在美国 + 台湾正在做回流（而不是继续从中国 / 马来西亚 / 泰国采购）。 市场尤其会漏掉这一点： -> 他们在供应链垂直整合的任何环节，都有向 ELS 甚至 merchant model 扩张 TAM 的可选性。 $AAOI 交易在 64 亿美元市值左右，主要是因为执行不确定性和宏观环境。而只要还没真正兑现，执行风险就一直会是个投机性压制。 但如果他们有任何迹象表明能完成目标，而且宏观转好，我们大概就看不到现在这种估值了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a gentle reminder: $AAOI expects to have the largest production capacity of 1.6T optical transceivers in America. Just as optical TAM is expected to ramp to $100B in a bull case (Lightcounting). AOI: “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for … 1.6T transceivers in the US” from their former ER transcript. They expect shipments to begin Q3 of 2026 and projected $378M / month capacity starting H2 2027, which is $4.35B annualized if hyperscalers buy anything they make. We’re in H1 of 2026, so it’s a tad early to be panicking from market volatility. Since AOI does the entire supply chain from InP laser fab, design, and assembly all captive. And especially in the USA + Taiwan operations that they’re reshoring (rather than sourcing to China/Malaysia/Thailand) Markets miss this part especially: -> They have TAM expansion optionality for ELS to merchant models in any parts of their vertically integrated supply chain. $AAOI is trading at $6.4B largely because of execution uncertainty and macro. And execution will always be an speculative overhang until it comes time to deliver. But if there’s any indication that they hit their targets and macro clears up, we probably won’t see current valuations again.
-
相信 AAOI 一年后 6B 市值仍明显低估，可用卖看跌期权更稳。
@SarAEsQMd 所以我对一年后的 $AAOI 很有信心，考虑到每月 3.79 亿美元的爬坡，以及激光 fab -> 设计 -> 组装的供应链，这 60 亿美元市值对它来说还是很低估。 不过在这段时间里，我们大概率会因为战争而经历极端波动。 如果你想更稳一点，也可以卖几周后的 CSP。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SarAEsQMd So I'm confident in 1 year time, with $379m/month ramp laser fab -> design -> assembly supply chain. That $6B is very undervalued for $AAOI. But we'll likely experience extreme volatility in the meantime from war. If you want to play it safe you can sell CSPs few weeks out.
-
认为 AEHR 在小市值下被低估，正被多家超大客户做资格认证。
$AEHR 在大约 11 亿美元市值下看起来极有吸引力。 Aehr 开始让我想起早期的 $TER，又有点像财报前的 $AAOI。 如果把时间线和猜测客户列出来： 2 月 11 日：Sonoma 为超大客户的 AI ASIC 处理器拿到生产胜利。（大概率是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$META） - 可能是谷歌？Aehr 收购了 Incal，而 Incal 曾被猜测会被谷歌用于 TPU。 2 月 26 日：来自 AI 主力客户的 1400 万美元。（大概率是 $AMD、$NVDA） - 这里更像是 $AMD，用于 Instinct MI300/MI400。 3 月 3 日：一台 FOX-XP 系统对应的主硅光客户。（大概率是 $INTC siph） - 很可能 $INTC 就是他们的主客户。 3 月 31 日：来自一家新的大型硅光客户的首单。（大概率是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$CSCO） - 新客户（排除了 Intel），大概是这些正转向 800G/1.6T 硅光收发器的公司之一。 （这些都属于非常保密的 BOM 级推测） 不管怎样，这条时间线对 $AEHR 来说就是在不断加码。 也许就是下一次财报。也可能再过两季。 但感觉量产订单只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
-
列出几只自己认为有 binary upside 的小票，并对各自风险做了简述。
我觉得在这个位置，$IQE 的二元上行空间最大，而且如果成功重组并转向 InP AI 业务，确实有可能涨 5 到 10 倍。 $POET 的下行风险因为现金资产负债表而比较低。我个人以前不太喜欢它……但如果它能在 Celestial 之外再拿下其他头部合作方，我也能看见它的上行空间。 如果 $AXTI 真的把供应链武器化，我能想象它从 30 亿美元变成 100 亿美元以上。否则的话，现在的估值其实还算合理。 $AAOI 更像是这样：他们能做到吗？能，一年涨 4 倍不是没可能。 我们拭目以待，当然每只也都有下行风险，比如 $IQE 的债务。我的 thesis 只是：按 landmark 相比来看，它们在反应炉 / 底层产能上的原始价值，超过了市值。 我最近没说太多，因为现在都在等新闻。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IQE probably has most binary upside at these levels and legitimately could 5-10x upon successful restructuring and conversion toward InP AI segments. $POET has pretty low downside risk due to cash balance sheet. I personally wasn’t a fan… but I see the upside if they can qualify with other leading partners aside from Celestial. $AXTI if they weaponized their supply chain I can see it being $10B+ from $3B. Otherwise current valuations are reasonable . $AAOI is more so. Can they do it? Yes they can for a 4x in a year. We’ll see what happens, there’s obviously downside risks with each too like $IQE debt. My thesis was just their raw value in terms of reactors/underlying capacity relative to landmark outweighs mc. Haven’t said too much since it’s waiting periods for news
-
反问 AAOI 直连这些巨头客户还有什么更好的客户可言。
@Jornka329996 $AAOI 直接连着 $ORCL、$MSFT、$AMZN，甚至可能还有 $META，还需要什么新客户？ 这大概已经是他们能拿到的最好客户了，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 How is $AAOI direct to $ORCL, $MSFT, $AMZN, and maybe $META needing new clients? Those are probably the best they can get lol
-
回顾自己一年回报超过 1000%，并列出下一轮光子学与 AI 相关主题。
过去一年里，回报 +1,124.09%，算是稳稳的。 匿名网友，距离靠 AI 逃离永久下层阶级，是不是只剩几年了？ OpenAI 融资 1220 亿美元，足够再把这波行情烧上两年。 而光子学 < $SIVE 到 $AAOI >、$AEHR 的测试、$NBIS 的数据中心，以及从 $AMKR 到 $POET 的先进封装这些新超级周期，才刚刚开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
-
说明 AAOI 做光器件的全链路业务，不会在转型中被替代。
$AAOI 会先做激光 -> 设计 -> 组装 -> 再把收发器卖出去。所以它们把整条供应链都包了。 可插拔光器件不会消失，所以他们会填补那一块。 然后在另一边，他们还做 ELSFP（外部光源），所以在 CPO 侧就是激光 -> 设计 -> 封装。 也就是说，这两边他们都做，不会在行业转型里被替代掉。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI does laser -> design -> assembly -> then sells the transceiver. So they have the whole supply chain. Pluggables won't go away so they'll fill that gap. Then on the side, they build ELSFPs (external light sources), so laser -> design -> packaging on the CPO side. So they do both. They don't get replaced in the transition.
-
说 AAOI 的波动很正常，经历过 AXTI 后更能适应。
@MacadoMP 这对 $AAOI 来说就是正常波动。 你得慢慢习惯它，尤其是如果你以前做过 $AXTI，你对 +25% 到 -20% 这种波动就会比较麻木。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MacadoMP Just your normal volatility for $AAOI. It's something to get used to, especially if you've been in $AXTI before, you're conditioned to be fine with +25% -20% movements.
-
AEHR获光收发器厂商认证订单，处于类似AAOI早期阶段，面临量产拐点。
$AEHR 从一家领先的光收发器(optical transceiver)公司获得了资格认证订单。 它正处于早期阶段，类似于 $AAOI 正在被主要超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)供应链测试用于光收发器/硅光子学(silicon photonics)阶段。 在可能随时到来的大批量量产拐点(mass volume inflection point)之前。 $AEHR 盘前上涨 12.73%。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR new qualification orders from a leading optical transicever company. It’s in the early $AAOI stage where it’s getting tested by major hyperscaler supply chains for optical transceivers/silicon photonics. Before the mass volume inflection point that may be at any time. $AEHR up 12.73% premarket.
-
认为即使大盘再跌，AAOI 也可能跑赢。
@Ungrate11057544 就算 $SPY、$MSFT、$AMZN 再跌 20%，我也还是觉得 $AAOI 会跑赢市场。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ungrate11057544 Let's just say even if $SPY, $MSFT, $AMZN crashes another 20% I expect $AAOI to outperform the market.
-
称自己刚在 84 美元附近买了 AAOI，觉得 66 亿市值太便宜。
@mi20483980476 我刚刚在大概 84 美元附近买了不少 $AAOI。对我来说，66 亿美元市值实在太便宜了，尤其是在他们有新的 5 亿美元战备资金的情况下。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mi20483980476 I personally bought a decent amount of $AAOI at ~$84 just now, $6.6B MC feels way too cheap for me, especially with their new $500m warchest.
-
认为 AAOI 在宏观不利时也能跑赢，因供给瓶颈和客户会付费。
我其实对大盘是看空的。 不过像 $AAOI 这种个股，我觉得即使宏观环境不好也会跑赢。 如果大家都缺货——即便超大规模客户削减 capex，你在瓶颈环节里还是会遇到同样的问题。 而且光收发器在 BOM 里的占比其实不算其他东西那么高，比如内存，所以他们会愿意付钱。 一句话总结就是挺复杂，但我个人确实觉得 $AAOI 会跑赢宏观环境。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm actually bearish on the market. However, there's some individual stocks like $AAOI that I expect to outperform despite macro climate. If you're sold out because nobody can make enough... even if hyperscalers cut back capex, you have the same problem in the bottleneck. Also BOM share of optical transceivers is actually not that much compared to others like memory, so they'd happily pay. TLDR pretty nuanced, but I do think $AAOI outpetforms macro climate personally.
-
不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和自己一样的 AAOI，因为他们会放大波动。
这就是为什么我不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和我一样的 $AAOI。 他们是做波动交易的，尤其喜欢搞散户最爱的名字，然后触发止损和恐慌。 但如果你知道自己持有什么： 一家美国公司，6.69 十亿美元市值，做的是整条收发器供应链： 从激光 -> 设计 -> 组装。 如果 $MSFT、$AMZN、$ORCL 这些公司真的会把他们能买的都买了，那对我个人来说，这个价格简直是捡漏。 对高 beta 股票来说，入场前把 conviction 和仓位管理好特别重要。 否则你就会一遍又一遍地在底部割肉、在顶部追高。
原推 ↗英文原文
And... this is why I don't like Jane Street owning the same stocks I do like $AAOI. They trade volatility, especially with retail favorite names and trigger stop losses/panic. If you know what you own though: $6.69B for a US company that makes the entire transceiver supply chain: From Laser -> Design -> Assembly. With likely $MSFT, $AMZN, $ORCL buying anything they can make, is a steal for me personally. With high beta stocks, it's really important to build conviction and manage sizing correctly before entering a trade. Otherwise you'll end up capitulating the bottom and buying the top over and over.
-
把近期机构轮动理解为 CPO/ELS 上游链条的机会。
尽管指数和巨头都在跌，比如 $META / $MSFT，但市场里依然明显有一些超额收益者。 这大概说明了机构轮动，或者说某个非常强的新兴行业已经在形成。 最明显的就是 CPO / ELS 供应链。 我个人的标的包括： $TSEM / Win Semi - 光子学里的 TSM $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE - 光源 $SOI / $AXTI - 衬底 $IQE - 外延片 当然也有更大的名字，比如 $MRVL、Sumitomo、$AVGO。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s clearly some market outperformers despite index’s and mega caps from $META / $MSFT crashing. This probably signals institutions rotation or an extremely strong up and coming sector. The obvious one is into CPO/ELS supply chains. My personal picks were: $TSEM / Win Semi- TSM of photonics $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE- Light Sources $SOI / $AXTI - Substrates $IQE - Epiwafers But of course there are larger names out there like $MRVL, Sumitomo, $AVGO.
-
只有一个股票代码。
@mi20483980476 $AAOI
原推 ↗英文原文
@mi20483980476 $AAOI
-
全球供应链高度互联，战争将摧毁从AI到消费电子的产业链，受益者仅是以色列和俄罗斯。
我仍然看多市场（目前85%多头，15%现金/对冲）。即使在战争时期，我预期从$AAOI到$LITE的许多股票仍能跑赢大盘。然而...如今世界高度互联。现任政府可能没有意识到上游供应链的严重性和脆弱性。他们可能看到$AAPL的"美国制造"。或者$TSLA的"美国制造"，但如果你看看特斯拉人形机器人的供应链来源：-> 在中国。执行器(Actuator)材料来自俄罗斯的原料。材料来自加拿大的合作伙伴。-> 对于星链(Starlink)，大量供应链来自台湾稳懋(Win Semi)到韩国的公司。对于OpenAI、私募股权、大型科技公司和其他公司的资金来源：-> 很大一部分来自阿联酋、中东和其他地方（随着油田被炸毁，他们可能需要撤出流动性）。持续数月的美国地面入侵造成的混乱是是非常看跌的。我最初预期的是"震撼与敬畏"，美国宣称胜利，战争冲击被买回。但我不会鼓励美国走向一场旷日持久的战争。这对亚洲伙伴（韩国、日本）或我们在欧洲的盟友都没有好处。战争的主要受益者是：#1：以色列 #2：俄罗斯世界其他地区，包括美国，都被战争拖累。看起来"油价/能源价格上涨对美国有利"：但它摧毁了从$NVDA到$AAPL的超大规模数据中心(Hyperscaler)所依赖的大量供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges). Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform. However... The World is largely interconnected now. The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains. They might look at $AAPL "Made in America". or $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids: -> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada. -> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea. For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from: -> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up. Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish. I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back. But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War. This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either. The main beneficiaries of War are: #1: Israel #2: Russia The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War. It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US": But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.
-
对比光通信供应链各玩家对CPO光源业务的直接敞口差异
当然，这更像是直接敞口与市值的对比。 光源环境如下： 头部玩家：Lumentum (550亿美元)、Broadcom (1万亿美元)、Coherent (550亿美元)、Sumitomo (规模庞大) 大型玩家：$AAOI (约80亿美元)、Furukawa (约70亿美元)、$MTSI (约190亿美元) 新兴玩家：$INTC (约2300亿美元+)、$SIVE (2.3亿美元)、Luxnet (17亿美元) 你可以买$AVGO来获得光子学敞口，但因为它规模太大……他们的其他业务部门可能会稀释敞口。 另一方面，如果你看$SIVE，由于规模很小，它几乎是CPO光源升级的纯概念股。 所以我最终选择了最直接的敞口。 很多人对市值(MC)感到不适，所以Furukawa、$MTSI、Sumitomo这类公司可能更受机构分析师青睐。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, it's more like direct exposure vs. marketcap. The light source environment looks like this: Leading players: Lumentum ($55B), Broadcom ($1T), Coherent ($55B), Sumitomo (massive) Large Players: $AAOI (~$8B), Furukawa (~$7B), $MTSI (~$19B) Emerging players: $INTC (~$230B+), $SIVE ($230M), Luxnet ($1.7B) You can buy $AVGO for photonics exposure, but because it's so large... their other segments will probably be diluting exposure. On the other hand, if you look at $SIVE, it's almost pure-play to the light source ramp for CPO because it's so small. So I ended up picking the most direct exposure. Lot of people are uncomfortable with MC, so companies like Furukawa, $MTSI, Sumitomo might be more popular with institutional analysts.
-
把 AEHR、TSEM、AAOI 分别对应测试、代工和激光供应链。
@mi20483980476 所以这三者其实分属三个不同类别（当然有重叠），我都喜欢。 $AEHR 做测试。 $TSEM 更像是晶圆代工。 $AAOI 则更像是激光 fab -> 设计 -> 组装。 这就是一条供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mi20483980476 So they all sit in three separate categories (with some overlap) and I like all three. $AEHR does testing. $TSEM is more like a foundry then $AAOI is more like laser fab -> design -> assembly It's a supply chain.
-
博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
-
分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
-
分享一个股票配置框架示例：分高增长股、moonshot、安全股、长期国家安全股四层配置
我个人不会仅投资一个行业以分散风险。我提到光子学如$AAOI是因为我认为它有最高的短期上涨空间。但像$NBIS这样的公司，正如Jensen准确所说的，会"照顾好你"的长期表现。也许可以找一些高增长long标的，例如：$ARM - 从新AI CPU获得5倍收入增长；$NBIS - 到第四季度实现7-9B ARR增长带来10倍收入增长；$AAOI - 从光收发器需求获得10倍收入增长；$MRVL - 从$MSFT Maia ASICs获得2-3倍收入增长。选择一两个moonshot：我提到$SIVE是我最喜欢的，但鉴于其规模小，我不会投入太多集中度。然后用一些"更安全的标的"进行杠铃配置：$AMZN长期看涨，即使通过机器人/AI削减运营成本，但其走势像蜗牛；$RDDT长期看涨，因为它利润极高且今天正在产生巨额自由现金流。也许还有一些"超长期玩家"具有深远的国家安全优势，例如：$INTC的"美国制造"；$AMKR的"美国制造"等。这只是一个虚构的例子。
原推 ↗英文原文
I would personally not just invest in one sector for diversification sake. I talk about photonics like $AAOI recently because I see it as highest short-term upside. But others like $NBIS as Jensen accurately said "will take care of you" long term. Maybe figure out high growth longs for example: $ARM - 5x revenue from new AI CPU $NBIS - 10x revenue to q4 $7-9B ARR ramp $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transceiver demand $MRVL - 2-3x revenue ramp from $MSFT Maia ASICs Pick one or two moonshots: I mentioned $SIVE as my favorite, but given it's small size, I wouldn't put too much concentration into them and then barbell with some "safer plays" $AMZN long term I'm bullish on even from robotics/AI cutting opex though it moves like a slug $RDDT long term I'm bullish on from on just because it's ridiculously high profit and generating massive FCF today. and maybe some "long, long term players" that have deep national security benefits eg: $INTC for Made in America $AMKR for Made in America, etc. Just a made up example.
-
仍然极度看多光子学，只是对存储略偏多，并把 doomsday portfolio 当对冲。
也不是完全这样，我对光子学还是超级看多，只是现在对存储只算略微看多。 我确实把一些标的的仓位砍掉了一点，好把杠杆降下来。 如果未来几年光子学已经卖断货，那么超大规模云厂商哪怕削减 CapEx，它依然还是卖断货，因为它在 BOM 里的占比本来就很低。 但存储在 BOM 里占比就大得多。 末日组合就是一种对冲。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not exactly, still mega bullish on photonics, only slightly bullish on memory now. I did cut some concentration in some names to go off margin. If you’re sold out for next few years for photonics, hyperscalers possibly cutting capex still makes it sold out since it’s still a low part of BOM. Memory is a huge amount of BOM though. Doomsday portfolio is a hedge.
-
阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
原推 ↗英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
-
认为不是所有卡点都适合买入，AAOI 的收入弹性更强。
是的，从技术角度这样理解很棒。 一只股票是不是好长仓，维度非常多。 我之前也看过 $HIMX，如果它真能转化成实质收入，我也许会做多，但最后没有下场。 对 $AAOI 我则非常有信心，因为它的收入预测会在一个巨大的光模块 TAM 里上升。 我不同意很多选票，最后走的是另一条路。不是所有不那么出名的瓶颈点都适合做长仓。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes that's a great way to approach it from the tech angle. Whether something is a great long, is extremely multifaceted. I was also looking at $HIMX if it translated into material revenue as well and decided not to take a long position. $AAOI I have high conviction on given revenue projections ramp in a massive TAM for optical transceivers. Disagree with many picks and went the other way. Not all lesser known chokepoints make great longs.
-
把 HIMX 的下跌当作瓶颈点教训，认为部分光子/光模块标的的 TAM 逻辑更强。
关于 $HIMX 以及它现在已经跌了 31.54%（还被宏观进一步加速）这个点，非常值得肯定。 这对理解瓶颈点是个很好的教训。 他们在这个“meme stock”上忽略了两件事： - 瓶颈点可以被设计绕开。 - 这个瓶颈点也许并不足以真正转化为收入，就像 $AXTI 那样。 而 $AAOI 这边，如果你看的是光模块出货预测，它的 TAM 增量其实非常大，只是他们之前一直偏空。 我也大体上不同意很多光子学标的的判断（比如说 $POET 的估值应该是 $SIVE 激光供应商的 7 倍）。 或者在没有看清楚可选性 + 巨大 TAM 下收入上行的情况下，对 $AAOI 持空。 不过一年后谁对谁错，我们到时候再看。最近整体下跌大多是被宏观加速的，不是说 $SIVE 或 $HIMX 的 thesis 错了。 但确实很有意思，芯片设计公司和分析师们在这些想法上的方向开始走相反路。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro). This is a good lesson around chokepoints. They missed two things on this "Meme Stock": - Chokepoints can be designed out. - Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI. $AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on. Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier). Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM. But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong). But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
-
认为 SOI 很强，而 SIVE 和 AAOI 是自己看好的高成长标的。
@Blinklebloop 同意，$SOI 在所有标的里大概是最强的位置之一。 对我来说，$SIVE 和 $AAOI 是继 $AXTI 之后的高成长火箭船。 这几个名字争议都很大，但我对它们都很有信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blinklebloop Agreed $SOI has arguably one of the strongest positions out of everything. $SIVE and $AAOI were the hypergrowth rocket ships following $AXTI for me. Lot of debate around them but I have conviction in them both
-
认为 SIVE 和 AAOI 可能还会继续跌，但如果 ATM 结束会重估。
@Jornka329996 可能是 $SIVE，因为现在跌了 22% 后市值只剩 3.3 亿美元了。 如果 $AAOI 的 2.5 亿美元 ATM 已经结束，也可能是它。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Probably $SIVE since it’s now only $330m after dropping 22%. Maybe $AAOI too, assuming their $250m ATM finished
-
说 LITE、AAOI 这类票若先前涨多，遇到宏观回撤时跌得更痛。
@BabyYod59296514 是啊，如果像 $LITE 或 $AAOI 这种票先涨很多，那么遇到宏观抛售时，回撤会更痛一点。 今天像 Coherent 这种低 beta 的名字都被打到 -8% 左右，也挺让人意外的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BabyYod59296514 Yeah, if names like $LITE or $AAOI run up a lot, corrections timed with macro selloffs hit a tad harder. Surprised lower beta names like $COHR got hit -8% or so today.
-
光子学全面回撤，但认为这类回撤常是筹码交换时刻，前提是别加杠杆。
光子学现在一点都不好玩。 激光公司里： $LITE、$SIVE、$COHR、$MTSI、$AAOI 全都在跌。 衬底、晶圆厂和外延片公司里： $IQE、$AXTI、$SOI、$TSEM 也全都在跌。 几乎全是红的。 从低 beta 的 Coherent 只有 6% 的跌幅，一直到 22% 都有。 这次最该学到的教训是： 拥抱波动，不要用杠杆。 一只票如果一天能涨 25%，今天也可能跌 20%。 由宏观驱动的流动性真空和止损，会造成非常剧烈的波动。 不过，如果像 $LITE 和 $COHR 这样的公司都已经卖断货到 2028 年…… 或者如果你知道 $SIVE 会是下一个 CW 激光受益者，市值大约只有 3.4 亿美元，而 $AXTI 会变成衬底瓶颈。 那么这类宏观砸盘，往往也是让有能力重新布局的人换手的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics are not having a fun time. Laser Companies from: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down. Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from: $IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down. Almost everything is red. From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%. Good lesson to learn: Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage. If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today. Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings. However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates. Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.
-
指出光子/材料/代工名字普遍在跑赢，而指数其实仍然在跌。
@Alex__0x0 是啊，从 $AAOI、$LITE、$MTSI、$TSEM、$COHR、$AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、Landmark 等这些名字到其他标的，都在明显跑赢！ 有时候你会忘了，其实指数年初至今还跌了 4%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!. Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD.
-
认为 SOI 估值重估较慢，但硅光和 CPO 放量会带来上行。
@excu4e16421 $SOI 的重估速度比 $AAOI 慢，但我觉得它已经接近旧业务拖累周期的底部，而且它们提供的衬底会从硅光 / CPO 放量中受益。 一年后也许能有 2.5 倍，这其实已经很好了，不是每只票都能三个月翻三倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@excu4e16421 $SOI is slow rerating compared to $AAOI but I do think it’s the bottom of their legacy drag cycle but they get upside from silicon photonics/cpo ramp up with the substrates they provide. Maybe 2.5x in a years time (which is still good, not everything triples in 3 months)
-
说 AAOI 自己已经涨了 3 倍以上，对其仍然高信念。
@usbastats $AAOI 自从我做多之后已经涨了 3 倍多……我只是因为名字太多，一时忘了它。 但对 $AAOI 依然是高信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
@usbastats $AAOI is up over 3x since I went long… I just forgot about it since there were too many names But yes high conviction with $AAOI
-
说自己对 SIVE 高信念，同时也看好 ARM、AAOI。
@Jornka329996 谢谢！$SIVE 对我个人来说是高信念标的。即便现在市值大概只有 4 亿美元左右，我也是这么看。 $ARM 和 $AAOI 这种价位下，长期看起来也很有潜力！ 这周我还在看另外两家大盘公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Thanks! $SIVE is high conviction for me personally. Even so at these levels around ~$400m MC. $ARM and $AAOI seems promising long term at these levels too! I did have two more large cap companies I'm looking at this week.
-
认为 AAOI 的异动大概与期权流有关。
@O_bhaina $AAOI 的走势大概还是和期权流有关。
原推 ↗英文原文
@O_bhaina Probably option flow related on $AAOI
-
认为光模块 PCB 只是次级机会，最赚钱的是 EML/CW 瓶颈。
@Antrunt 可以关注光模块 PCB，但我会把重点放在 EML / CW 瓶颈上，因为那才是最赚钱的部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Antrunt optical transceiver pcb, but I'd focus on the EML/CW bottleneck which is the most profitable.
-
$SIVE是极少数纯光激光瓶颈投资标的，估值仅4亿美元却已切入超大规模云服务商供应链。
$SIVE简直是世界上少数几个纯正的公共投资渠道，直接暴露在（CW/EML）光学激光瓶颈中。 $LITE - 550亿美元+ $COHR - 530亿美元+ $MTSI - 178亿美元+ $AAOI - 88亿美元 $SIVE - 4亿美元 你几乎从来没见过这种情况... 真的震惊于有一家像Sivers这样的小型公司存在。它已经通过Jabil、Marvell Celestial、O-Net、Ayar等公司成为超大规模云服务商的合格供应商。 这是我见过的市场上最大的结构性缺口之一。 我预计市场会像$AXTI一样每天重新定价这件事，随着越来越多的机构开始意识到这一点。 （引用内容）： $SIVE一定是我在这个市场里见过的除了$AXTI之外上涨空间最大的股票？ 市场不可能错过Jabil、Marvell（通过$POET的Celestial）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有$NVDA和联发科支持）所用的CW激光光源... 估值只有1.4亿美元（现在是3.5亿美元）。 不仅能获得最直接的激光敞口，用于未来的CPO规模化？ 还有这个周期的1.6T可插拔模块，与$JBL（前英特尔硅光子部门）即将推出的产品合作。 稳懋(Win Semi)需要为超大规模云服务商供应链扩大桥接产能。 99.9%的人还没意识到这件事的规模之大。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is literally one of the only pure play public exposure to the (CW/EML) optical laser bottlenecks in the world. $LITE - $55B+ $COHR - $53B+ $MTSI - $17.8B+ $AAOI - $8.8B $SIVE- $400M You basically almost never see this... Genuinely shocked there's a small cap company out there like Sivers... That already is a qualified supplier to hyperscaler supply chains through Jabil, Marvel Celestial, O-Net, Ayar and others. This is one of the largest structural gaps in the market I've seen. I expect the market to keep repricing this every day like $AXTI as more institutions begin to realize this.
-
不理解 Manus 创始人被拘留和 AAOI 高增长之间的联系。
@Zarro_Boogs Manus 创始人被拘留，怎么就能说明 $AAOI 会高增长？
原推 ↗英文原文
@Zarro_Boogs How are Manus founders getting detained signaling high growth for $AAOI?
-
补充说 AAOI 也该算进去，只是自己一开始想的是 merchant supplier。
@alejandrobatiz $AAOI 也应该在名单里……我刚才一时没想到，因为我想的是 merchant suppliers，而不是 captive。
原推 ↗英文原文
@alejandrobatiz $AAOI should be up there too, somehow it slipped my mind since I was thinking of merchant suppliers rather than captive.
-
认为比起 IREN，还有更好的同赛道选择，NBIS 融资更好、AAOI 资本开支更轻。
比 $IREN 更好的机会其实很多。 如果你想留在同一个赛道，$NBIS 显然更好，因为它的 CapEx 融资方式更优（$NVDA 提供了 20 亿美元资金）…… 另外还有像 $AAOI 这种公司，它用更少的 CapEx 就能在营收和利润上超过 $IREN。 但如果你还是想持有 $IREN，也许更好的做法是等大家都被稀释完、为扩建买单之后再重新进场，去收获后面的果实。
原推 ↗英文原文
Much better opportunities out than $IREN. If you want the same sector, $NBIS is objectively better when you look at how they finance capex ( $NVDA $2B funding )… Then there’s others like $AAOI that leapfrogs $IREN revenue + profit, with less capex. But if you still want to hold $IREN, probably better to re-enter after everyone gets diluted to fund their buildout and reap the rewards after.
-
批评持有$IREN者被套牢还看涨，质疑其投资逻辑
我真的对那些还持有$IREN的人感到惊讶。 想象一下，市值接近60亿美元…… 最终被稀释，在每次股市反弹时都被抛售到公开市场…… 然后还看涨？ 如果你为了100-200%+的年初至今涨幅而避开$SNDK或$AAOI。 因为你把公司看得比自己的投资组合回报更重要。 你就陷入了特殊的$AMC套牢族境地。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m genuinely impressed there’s people out there holding $IREN. Imagine getting close to half the market cap… ~$6B eventually diluted, sold into the open market against every stock rally… then still being bullish? If you’re avoiding $SNDK or $AAOI for 100-200%+ YTD. Because you care more about a company over your own portfolio returns. You’re in the special $AMC bagholding territory.
-
AAOI在光收发器超级周期中拥有巨大的重新估值潜力，其美国本土完整供应链是核心优势。
如果你是$AAOI的新手： 在 ATH 附近以 $109 进场看起来很吓人，毕竟今年已涨了 175%。 然而，这看起来就像是光子学领域的 $SNDK。 而碰巧的是，光收发器超级周期的中心... 在 $8.2B 估值下，我们可以看看预测： （预计产能 * 平均售价预测） 2026年Q2：~$312.1M 2026年Q4：~$1.41B 2027年Q2：~$1.53B 2027年Q4：~$1.97B 如果$AAOI最终在营收上超越了 $55B 的 $LITE... $8B 市值对于这种收入增长来说看起来有点荒谬，利润率可达 30-40%... 重新估值潜力是巨大的。 最坏的情况如果内部激光晶圆厂失败，就得从 $COHR 采购。 或者最终成为一个美国制造版的 Innolight / Eoptolink（两家都是 $66B-$90B+ 的中国公司）？ 在美国建立完整供应链的选择权被低估了。 $AAOI 是我少数高度看多的标的之一，除了 $SIVE 和 $LITE，如果他们能兑现预测的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're new to $AAOI: It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase. However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK. And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle... At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections: (est. Capacity * ASP Projections) Q2 2026: ~$312.1M Q4 2026: ~$1.41B Q2-2027: ~$1.53B Q4-2027: ~$1.97B If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue... $8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins… Re-rating potential is enormous. Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR. Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)? The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated. $AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
-
观察 AAOI ATM 可能已结束，但仍要看能否站稳 100 美元。
@KDREAM111111 看起来 $AAOI 的 ATM 可能结束了？ 不过这也没法确定。 如果它能冲过 100 美元以上，并且在一两天内守住涨幅，那大概率就是这样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KDREAM111111 Looks like $AAOI ATM is done? No way to tell. If it blows through $100+ and holds its gains for a day or two, it's likely.
-
回顾 AXTI 10 倍成功后，列出 SIVE、AAOI、VNP、SOI 等下一批高信念供应链标的。
所以我的 10 倍 Moonshot $AXTI 最后真的飞到了月球。 如果你觉得自己错过了火箭： -> $SIVE 是我现在最喜欢的下一个 AXT 式 10 倍 Moonshot。 -> $AAOI 自从我提到之后已经涨了 4 倍，但我还是觉得它从现在这个位置还能再涨 4 倍。 如果你想玩得更稳一点： -> $VNP 是西方版本的 $AXTI -> $SOI 是硅光 / CPO 版本的 $AXTI，但它还没真正起量。 -> $IQE 更偏向重组后的二元结果。 -> $TSEM、$LITE、$COHR 则是更稳的复利型标的。 我之前还没怎么提过 $VNP（5N Plus），但它确实是西方供应链里最重要的公司之一，是 $AXTI 的对照面。 它主要供应：铟、锗、镓、碲、铋。也供应 LEO 卫星太阳能电池，以及光子学的衬底 feedstock。 市场里永远还有更多机会！
原推 ↗英文原文
So my 10x moonshot $AXTI ended up landing on the moon. If you felt like you missed the rocket: -> $SIVE is my personal favorite next 10x AXT moonshot at today's prices. -> $AAOI already up 4x since I've mentioned it, but I still think it can 4x again from these levels. If you want to play a bit safer: -> $VNP is the Western $AXTI -> $SOI is the $AXTI for silicon photonics/CPO, but it hasn't really ramped up yet. -> $IQE is more binary based on restructuring. -> $TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders. I haven’t mentioned $VNP (5N Plus) much yet but it’s genuinely one of the most important companies in Western supply chains as the counterbalance to $AXTI. Basically it supplies: indium, germanium, gallium, tellurium, bismuth. Solar cells for LEO. Substrate feedstock for photonics. There's always more opportunities in the market!
-
说 AXTI 已到 69.69 传奇位阶，Axt 估值虽贵但对 AI 供应链有价值。
$AXTI 现在已经到了传奇的 69.69 价位。 我原本期待的是一年半接近 10 倍的回报，而不是几个月就到位…… 从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，几乎所有东西都在疯狂跑赢。 至于 AXT 按 40 亿美元市值来算？是不是贵了。是。 超大规模云厂商会不会为了确保自己的 AI 构建去付 100 亿美元？会。 很多这种瓶颈，根本不能用传统估值指标来定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI has now reached the legendary status of $69.69. Was expecting close to 10x returns in a year and half, not a few months… Everything from $AAOI to $SIVE are ridiculously outperforming. As for AXT valuations at $4B? Is it overvalued. Yes. Would hyperscalers pay $10B to secure their AI buildout? Yes. Lot of these bottlenecks can’t be valued with traditional metrics.
-
认为 AEHR 可能即将迎来拐点，AMKR 还要等，FORM 也是今年的关注点。
@GoldenMeth 我认为 $AEHR 在这里是个不错的长仓，接下来几个月里很可能像 $AAOI 一样迎来拐点。 $AMKR 我会等到明年，因为它们还在 CapEx 阶段，产能大概到 2027 年底或 2028 年才真正上线，如果我没记错的话。 $FORM 也是我今年比较关注的一个。
原推 ↗英文原文
@GoldenMeth IMO $AEHR is a great long here and should hit its inflection point in the next few months like $AAOI. $AMKR better to wait next year since they’re in capex phase and their buildout comes online late 2027 or 2028 if I remember correctly. $FORM was a fan this yr
-
股价短期波动不改变投资论点，应保持信念不被宏观因素左右。
我不喜欢这类帖子，但今天我还是再发一次： 当像$SOI这样的股票下跌6%，并回吐了本周大部分涨幅时： 关于SOI基板在硅光子学(silicon photonics)/共封装光学(CPO)领域达到垄断级别的投资论点没有任何改变。 不幸的是，大盘指数（巴黎证券交易所指数）本月暴跌9%，而且还在继续下跌。 而伊朗战争带来的更广泛宏观因素又进一步压低了很多股票。 我提到的每一只股票，比如$AXTI，不会直线上涨，但它们往往是强劲的超越大盘的标的。 如果我的投资论点发生实质性变化，我会发帖说明。 但如果股价下跌是因为宏观因素，或者在上涨400%后如$AAOI那样的轻微回调。 或者$SIVE在上周五暴跌16%然后周一又反弹35%…… 短期股价不会改变投资论点。 它也不应该改变你的信念。 特别是对于这些股票，如果我一段时间没有提到它们，比如$IQE，那只是处于重组或资产出售的等待期。或者$NBIS正处于其悄无声息的建设期，为Q4营收的爆发式增长做准备。 这类表现有时是宏观环境的副产品。 但如果它们能在一周内下跌10%，它们也能在一周内上涨10%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again: When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week: Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed. Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down. And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names. Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers. I’ll post if my thesis materially changed. But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI. Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday… Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis. And it shouldn’t to your conviction either. Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp. Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro. But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.
-
将卫星周期和光子超级周期对比，认为后者更能支撑收入和盈利增长。
这里有一个太空卫星超级周期： -> 由 $PL 触发。 随后 $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR 等跟上。 然后还有光子超级周期： -> 由 $LITE 和 $COHR 触发。 随后 $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI 等跟上。 前者是对太空应用的炒作。 后者是对 AI 带来的极端收入和盈利增长的炒作。 后者通常更容易被证明是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle: -> Triggered by $PL. With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following. Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle: -> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR. With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following. One is hype over applications from Space. The other is hype over extreme revenue and earnings growth from AI. The latter tends to be more defensible.
-
认为 2000 万美元超大规模订单后，AAOI 进入放量拐点。
@JungleStocks 因为这件事是发生在 5 天前那笔 2 亿美元超大规模云订单之后…… 我只是说，大家要开始习惯看到这种订单了，因为 $AAOI 已经到了拐点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JungleStocks Because it’s after a $200M hyperscaler order 5 days ago… I’m just saying get used to a lot of these orders, since $AAOI hit their inflection point
-
宣布 AAOI 获得 5300 万美元 800G 订单，认为以后会天天见到这种单子。
$AAOI 获得了一笔来自超大规模云厂商的 5300 万美元 800G 光模块订单。 是时候习惯每天都看到这种消息了。 这些光子学公司能生产多少，就会被买走多少。 -> 直接被收购。 https://t.co/3eqwBUV8Np
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI receives $53M 800G order from hyperscaler for optical transceivers. It’s time to start getting used to seeing this every day. Any production these photonics companies can make? -> get bought out. https://t.co/3eqwBUV8Np
-
认为 AAOI 的 ATM 是结构性压制，但结束后可能冲上 130。
@Taylor_GPT $AAOI 有一个 2.5 亿美元、价格 100 美元的 ATM。 这是结构性压制，但一旦它结束，我觉得它会直接冲过 130 美元。 相对于产能 -> 收入，它还是低估的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Taylor_GPT $AAOI $250m ATM at $100. Structural overhang, but once that’s done I think it’ll blow past $130. Undervalued relative to capacity -> revenue
-
说 TACO 消息让指数变绿，AAOI 和 TSEM 盘前大涨。
因为 TACO 的消息，指数一下子转绿了。 $TSEM 到 $AAOI 这些个股盘前都涨了 6-7%+。 特朗普： “我高兴地向大家报告，美国和伊朗在过去两天里，围绕中东敌对行动的全面彻底解决进行了非常好且富有成效的会谈。”
原推 ↗英文原文
Indexes shot green over the news of a TACO. Individual names from $TSEM to $AAOI are up 6-7%+ premarket. Trump: "I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST"
-
用一串收益对比说明 AXTI、IQE、AAOI 只是短期回撤，并非真正下跌。
$AXTI 当时是 12 到 15 美元？ 我从没听说过有人会把从 5 倍回报之后，$AXTI 从 60 美元回调到 55 美元这种事称作“跌很多”。 $IQE 年初至今涨了 266%？ $AAOI 从 30 美元 -> 125 美元 -> 85 美元，不能就说它跌很多。 真正确实是红的，只有 $RDDT。因为我在它 140 美元时提过，现在它是 136.5 美元。也就是跌了 3.5 美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI was $12-15? I’ve never heard of someone complain of $AXTI correcting $5 after a 5x return to $60 to $55. $IQE is up 266% YTD? $AAOI was $28-$32? Going from $30 -> $125 -> $85 doesn’t mean down a lot $RDDT is the only name you’ve mentioned that’s genuinely red since I mentioned it at $140 and now it’s $136.5. So down $3.5
-
认为还有很多好机会，SMCI、AAOI、AEHR 等都不错。
@DegnFarmer 哦我在看。市场上现在还有很多不错的机会，比如 $SMCI 18.5 美元、$AAOI 86 美元、$AEHR 等等。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DegnFarmer Oh I am. There's a ton of good opportunities ON, $SMCI at $18.5, $AAOI at $86, $AEHR, etc.
-
推荐在当前价位买入AAOI和SIVE，认为估值有吸引力
$AAOI 和 $SIVE 目前估值都极具吸引力，我个人会在这两个价位买入。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Both $AAOI and $SIVE are extremely compelling valuations right now and id personally buy both at these levels
-
认为 AAOI 在 100 美元附近受 ATM 发行压制，但长期营收潜力下依然被低估。
@Jornka329996 这说得通，因为它现在还在以 100 美元做 ATM 融资。 我一直说，$AAOI 短期的天花板就在这里，因为他们正按这个价格卖出 2.5 亿美元的股票。 但等这轮结束后，我个人觉得它按长期营收潜力看还是严重低估。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 It makes sense, since there is an ongoing ATM at $100. I've been saying this is the ceiling for short term $AAOI since they're selling $250m worth of shares at that price. But once that finishes, I personally it's very undervalued given long term revenue potential.
-
解释 AAOI 的 ATM 发行节奏，以及股价通常在 100 美元附近受压的原因。
他们已经完成了那轮 2.5 亿美元的 ATM，而 $AAOI 最近又启动了另一轮 2.5 亿美元融资。 通常它在碰到 ATM 发行时会从 100 美元附近回落，今天就是这样。 上次他们做完后，股价一度涨到约 125 美元，然后又开始新的发行。 所以如果你看到它直接冲破 100 美元而且不再回落，那大概就说明 5 亿美元的 ATM 已经完成了。不过正式确认还得看文件或者财报。
原推 ↗英文原文
They finished their $250m ATM, and $AAOI launched another $250M recently. Typically it bounces off $100 whenever they tap into their ATM as seen with today. Last time they finished, it rallied to ~$125 before they offered another one. So if you see it blowing past $100+ and not dropping again, that's probably the sign they finished the $500m ATM. But you'll get formal confirmation of it either with filings or earnings.
-
愿意在 7B 市值附近买 AAOI，但当前 AXT 估值偏高，暂时不加仓。
如果 $AAOI 的市值在大约 70 亿美元，我会考虑买入。 $AXTI 现在 32 亿美元的估值就有点偏高了，因为 SMM 上并没有出现 7N 铟的重大非标上涨。我还在拿着现有仓位，但出于时机考虑，可能不会继续加仓。 长期看其实影响也没那么大。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'd be a buyer at $AAOI here at a ~$7B MC. $AXTI $3.2B is a tad more elevated now, given there wasn't any major spike of 7N indium nonstandard on SMM. I'm holding existing positions, but probably not adding here just for timing-purposes. In the long run, doesn't really matter much.
-
展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
-
建议把仓位投向即将到来的硅光 / CPO 方向，并在高信念和分散之间做平衡。
@moderndayvenom 我会把资金投向硅光 / CPO，因为我们知道这会从 OFC 和 $NVDA GTC 继续推进。 像 $TSEM、$SIVE、$SOI 这种名字，是我最喜欢、信念最高的三个。 然后我会稍微分散一点，今天价格下的 $RDDT 也可以作为多头，另外当前收发器周期里的 $AAOI 也不错。
原推 ↗英文原文
@moderndayvenom I’d send it into silicon photonics/CPO since we know it’s coming from OFC and $NVDA GTC. Names like $TSEM, $SIVE, $SOI were my favorite three higher conviction ones. Then I’d diversify a bit, maybe $RDDT as a long as of today’s prices. And $AAOI for current transceiver cycles.
-
认为光子超级周期不受宏观扰动影响，多个相关标的都在上涨。
$TSEM 和光子超级周期…… 看起来它们并不在意伊朗局势，也不在意白银和黄金下跌？ 从 $AAOI、$COHR、$SIVE 到 $LITE，几乎所有名字都在涨。 这就是未来几年产能已经售罄，或者正处在 AI 建设扩张核心位置时会发生的事。 最好还是继续持有，而不是被宏观噪音带偏。
原推 ↗英文原文
$TSEM and the Photonics Supercycle… Doesn’t like they’re bothered with Iran or Silver and Gold crashing? Almost every name from $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE, to $LITE is green. This is what happens when capacity is sold out for the next few years or it’s in the center of scaling the AI buildout. Better to stay long rather than get distracted by macro.
-
博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
-
说明自己在容量等于收入的假设下估算 ASP，并引用 AAOI 与 LITE 业绩电话会作支撑。
@FlashBozZ 是的，我确实写过那篇分析。ASP 是一个估算值，而我假设产能最终会转化成营收。 从 $AAOI 的财报电话会来看，他们说超大规模云厂商几乎什么都买，只要他们能造出来；再加上 $LITE CEO 也明确说他们已经完全卖光了。 https://t.co/UFwfdo0xzg
原推 ↗英文原文
@FlashBozZ Yes I did a writeup on it. The ASP is an estimate, and I’m making the assumption capacity translates to revenue. Given per $AAOI ER they stated hyperscalers were buying anything they could build. As well as $LITE CEO statements about being completely sold out https://t.co/UFwfdo0xzg
-
用设计/组装、激光/收发器两类公司估值作比较，推导 SIVE 与 AAOI 的合理市值区间。
在设计 / 组装这一侧： Eoptolink（中国）：约 500 亿美元市值，约 53 亿美元营收 Innolight（中国）：约 840 亿美元市值，约 110 亿美元营收 $FN 这类低毛利组装公司约 200 亿美元市值，对应约 40 亿美元预期营收。 在激光 / 收发器这一侧： $LITE 约 470 亿美元市值：到 2026 年末营收将超过 30 亿美元。 然后是 $AAOI，现在月收入 3.75 亿美元左右，供应链位于激光 / 设计 / 组装这一层，目标年化营收约 45 亿美元 + 继续增长。 按这个逻辑，$AAOI 估值到 130 亿美元似乎合理，因为它还没真正到那个数字。 而 $SIVE，你只要看 CPO 的爬坡去猜就行。 通常先进封装公司（至少在当前周期里）会比它们对应的激光公司拿到更低的估值，除非它们自己也做设计。 $SIVE 给 $POET / Ayar 等公司供激光，而后者估值都在 10 亿到 30 亿美元+。 所以 $SIVE 至少也应该有 10 亿美元左右的下限。 这只是拿相似公司的估值 / 营收预测做比较，然后再做一个估算。
原推 ↗英文原文
For design/assembly Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B revenue Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~$11B revenue $FN for low margin assembly ~$20B MC, ~$4B projected revenue. For lasers/transceiver: $LITE ~$47B MC: ~$3B+ EOY 2026. Then you have $AAOI, $375M/month for laser/design/assembly supply chain, ~$4.5B ARR target + growth. Maybe ~$13B sounds reasonable since it hasn't hit those numbers yet. It's discretionary. As for $SIVE, you can just look at CPO ramp and just take a guess. Usually advanced packaging companies (at least in current cycles), have around the less valuation as their laser counterparts (Unless they do design). $SIVE supplies lasers to $POET/Ayar both of which are $1-$3B+ valuations. So $SIVE at least should be ~$1B low end. This is just comparing similar company valuation/revenue projections, then making an estimate.
-
用容量和供应链地位推演 AAOI 与 SIVE 的潜在市值上修空间，认为光学超级周期极其夸张。
我觉得市场应该这样给它们定价： $AAOI：从 93 美元到 162 美元（约 130 亿美元市值），这是在他们今天公布新产能预测之后的合理水平。 而 $SIVE 至少也应该从 7.7 美元到 38.5 美元，按约 11 亿美元市值去看？ 如果其中一个到 2027 年末扩产到约 19.7 亿美元的产能（基本上就等于营收，因为超大规模云厂商会把能买的都买掉）， 那另一个又是从 $AMZN Trainium 到 $MSFT Maia 集群的超大规模云供应链里，最可能的激光供应商？ 至少也该把未来营收增长计进去。 这还不算执行不确定性，也没给其他像 $LWLG 这类公司加上溢价（它们也已经有 11 亿美元以上市值）。 如果 Win Semi 认证了 $SIVE，而 $POET / Ayar 等继续扩产，我觉得 $SIVE 的估值从这里 20-30 倍都不是没可能？ 如果 $AAOI 真按每月 3.78 亿美元的目标跑，股价从这里 5 倍到大约 300 亿美元市值也完全可能。 这些潜在目标价足以说明光学超级周期有多夸张（像存储一样），只是最终要看每家公司执行得如何。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like markets should value: $AAOI $93 -> $162 (~$13B MC) after their new capacity projections today. and $SIVE should be valued at 7.7 -> 38.5 ($1.1B MC) at least? If one is ramping to ~$1.97B capacity EOY 2027 (which is basically revenue, since hyperscalers are buying anything they can make) Then the other is the likely laser supplier to hyperscaler supply chains from $AMZN Trainium to $MSFT Maia Clusters? At the very least, should price in forward revenue growth. This is including execution uncertainty, and without premiums assigned to others like $LWLG at $1.1b+. If Win semi qualifies $SIVE and $POET/Ayar/and others scale up. I feel like $SIVE valuation could easily 20x-30x from here? If $AAOI hits $378M/month projections, could easily 5x from here to a ~$30B MC. These possible price targets is how insane the optical supercycle is (like memory), but largely depends on how each company can execute.
-
认为即使按产能目标估值，AAOI 也不该接近 64 亿美元。
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ 我是在 $28-32 买的 $AAOI。等到 $88-$90 时，我会更积极地买入。 如果他们真的接近这些产能目标，我完全看不出这家公司怎么会值接近 64 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ I bought $AAOI $28-32. And I’m a heavier buyer at $88-$90. I don’t see how this company should be worth anywhere close to $6.4B if they get even close to these capacity targets.
-
即使 AAOI 最终只是美国版 Innolight/Eoptolink，按 60 亿美元市值看也仍然低估。
@HeLiuLeo 即使他们没法把内部激光工厂放大（转而从 $COHR 采购），最后变成美国版的 Innolight / Eoptolink，$AAOI 以 60 亿美元市值看也还是被低估了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@HeLiuLeo even if they can’t scale up internal laser fab (buying from $COHR) and end up as a US Innolight/eoptolink, $AAOI is still undervalued at $6b
-
强调自己会先用前瞻基本面和供应链终端需求建模，而不是先看图形。
我会先把前瞻性的基本面（营收、利润）建模进去，然后再让市场去给 $AAOI 这样的公司定价。 或者像 $SIVE 那样，去看供应链终端客户，比如 $AMZN 或 $MSFT 对光源的需求。 市场里大部分 alpha，本来就是这么找到的，不是靠画一条歪歪扭扭的线。
原推 ↗英文原文
I try to model in forward fundamentals (revenue, profit) before markets price the company in with stuff like $AAOI. Or with $SIVE, looking at supply chain end users like $AMZN or $MSFT for light sources. That's how most of the money is to be made in markets finding alpha, not drawing a swiggly line on a chart.
-
用 ASP 和产能推演 AAOI 的营收爬坡，认为市场严重低估其容量兑现速度。
$AAOI 以 64.9 亿美元市值看起来明显低估了。 如果我们今天按 ASP 和他们最新的产能预测来建模： 来自产能的营收： Q2 2026：约 3.121 亿美元 Q4 2026：约 14.1 亿美元 Q2 2027：约 15.3 亿美元 Q4 2027：约 19.7 亿美元 这就是非常夸张的爬坡（按约 34-40% 的毛利率估算）。 ASP 是按 LightCounting、Dell'Oro Group 和 Yole 的资料，以及 ELSFP 模块定价推出来的（其中最有猜测性的就是 ELSFP 模块）。另外也参考了一些卖方模型，比如 Raymond James、B. Riley、Northland Capital 和 Goldman Sachs。 大规模订单的精确合同价格并不知道，所以这部分有猜测成分。 但 Q2 的量 * ASP 估算，实际上和他们到 2027 年 Q2 每月 3.78 亿美元的目标是对得上的。 再说一次，你可能会问：这只是产能，不等于营收吧？ 但从 $AMZN 到 $MSFT 的超大规模云厂商，正在把 $LITE 到 $COHR 这些公司能做出来的任何产能都买走，而且是提前很多年就开始买。 这也包括 $AAOI 在他们之前的财报电话会上提到的部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI looks very undervalued at $6.49B. If we model ASP and their newest capacity projections today: Revenue from Capacity: Q2 2026: ~$312.1M Q4 2026: ~$1.41B Q2-2027: ~$1.53B Q4-2027: ~$1.97B This is absurd ramp (off ~34-40% est. gross margins). ASP modeled off (LightCounting, Dell'Oro Group & Yole, pricing for ELSFP modules is the most speculative). And some sell-side models (from firms like Raymond James, B. Riley, Northland Capital, and Goldman Sachs). Exact contract pricing for massive volume orders is not known, so this is speculative. But the Q2 volume * ASP estimates actually align with their $378M/month target Q2-2027. Again, you might be wondering? This is capacity, doesn't translate into revenue right? Hyperscalers from $AMZN to $MSFT are buying any capacity any of these companies from $LITE to $COHR can make, years out. This includes $AAOI from their former earnings call.
-
分析光通信供应链中不同规模公司的上涨潜力，从大型成熟公司到细分领域纯业务公司
三件事： 1/ 通常，市值越小，上涨空间越大（但风险也更高） 2/ 寻找那些未被定价进当前可插拔光模块周期的公司（EML光收发器公司如$LITE和$COHR） 3/ 纯业务布局即将到来的CPO/硅光子学范式转换。 说到追求“最高上涨空间”： 如果你看$MRVL的Celestial产品线对比$TSM的COUPE，两者都是大体量公司，而这只是它们营收的一小部分。所以这很可能被排除，除非交易员使用期权。 像$SOI的SOI衬底这类产品会对营收产生更实质性的影响（更高的上涨空间）。 然后还有像上游激光供应商$SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> 超大规模云厂商供应链这样的环节，我已识别为高潜力受益者。 但像$AAOI这样的公司在800G/1.6T可插拔光模块周期中仍有巨大的上涨空间。 我相信市场上有许多被错误定价或未知的投资机会…… CPO规模化应用的TAM（总可寻址市场）像是垂直上升的，但像$SIVE这样的产品用于规模化应用的光源和激光阵列。
原推 ↗英文原文
Three things: 1/ Generally, the lower the marketcap, the higher the upside (but more risk) 2/ Finding companies that weren’t priced into current pluggable cycles (EMl-transceiver companies like $LITE and $COHR) 3/ Pure play to the upcoming cpo/silicon photonics paradigm shift. In terms of chasing “highest upside”: If you look at $MRVL Celestial to $TSM COUPE they’re both already massive companies. And it’s just a fraction of their revenue. So that’s likely excluded unless traders use options. Stuff like SOI substrates for $SOI will make a more material difference toward revenue (higher upside). Then others like upstream laser supplier $SIVE to ->$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> hyperscaler supply chains, I’ve identified as a high potential beneficiary. But there’s still a massive upside for companies like $AAOI in the 800g/1.6T pluggable cycle. I’m sure there’s a lot of mispriced or unknown opportunites out there… as The TAM for cpo scale up is like a vertical like up, but things like $SIVE are used for light sources in scale up and laser arrays for scale up.
-
偏好半垄断和上游瓶颈，认为 SIVE 的上行空间最大，其次可能是 AAOI。
我一般都更喜欢半垄断型公司……所以基板层面的 $AXTI 和 $SOI 大概是我最喜欢的？ $TSEM 和 $COHR 是我两个一直很稳的复利标的。 至于上行空间最大，我确实觉得 $SIVE 可能会拿下下一只 $LITE 的位置。也许 $AAOI 排第二吧……
原推 ↗英文原文
I tend to like semi-monopolies... So $AXTI and $SOI on substrate level are probably kinda my favorites? $TSEM and $COHR were my two steady compounders. As for highest upside, I do think $SIVE takes the crown as the next potential $LITE. Maybe $AAOI second place. And $AXTI third?
-
给出自己在这批光子名字里的偏好组合，并列出当前周期最喜欢的标的。
@GOATTRADER5184 所以我自己从这堆里挑出来的标的有： $SIVE、$TSEM、$AEHR、$SOI。 我喜欢尽量挑赢家。至于当前周期，我更喜欢的是： $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE
原推 ↗英文原文
@GOATTRADER5184 So my personal picks out of the bunch were: $SIVE, $TSEM, $AEHR, $SOI. I like try and pick winners. As for current cycle it's: $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE
-
发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
原推 ↗英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
-
分析光通信从EML到SiPh架构变化中的投资机会与瓶颈环节
Alpha就是捕捉从当前EML到明年SiPh(硅光子)/CW DFB架构变化带来的机会。 所以像Soitec($SOI)、$TSEM、$SIVE、$POET这类还没被重新定价的新标的。 目前瓶颈环节是像$AAOI这样最近业绩预期爆表、还有很大上涨空间的股票。但我还是认为$COHR和$LITE也有被重新定价的空间。 然后还有用于各种光电器件的InP(磷化铟)衬底/原料，比如$AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
The alpha is capturing the rotation from the current EML to SiPh / CW DFB architectural change next year. So new stuff like Soitec ( $SOI ), $TSEM, $SIVE, and $POET type names that haven't been re-rated yet. Current bottleneck would be stuff like $AAOI that recently had blowout projections and have a long way to go. But I still think there's room for $COHR and $LITE to be re-rated as well. Then there's InP substrate/feedstock for photonics like $AXTI which is used across everything.
-
光子学供应链严重供不应求，LITE等公司售罄至2027年，市场或未充分定价CPO等新增长点。
光子学是继内存之后的下一个瓶颈。 如果你还不信？ $LITE 首席执行官出来说了： "我们真正售罄直到2027年底。我们看不到尽头。" 这与$INTC 首席执行官说内存短缺"2028年前无法缓解"惊人地相似。 但不同的是……光子学作为AI的新架构范式才刚刚开始放量。 当前 EML 激光器 + 光收发器的瓶颈不可小觑。 超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何 EML 产能或光收发器，$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR 及其下游供应商能生产的他们全要。 首席执行官还重申："我们完全售罄。"该公司[$LITE]"远远、远远低于"客户需求量。 "Lumentum 表示其发货量低于需求约 25% 到 30%，且所有产能已通过长期协议完全分配至2027日历年度。" 如果光子学领域未来两年完全售罄、看不到尽头。 而且在价格上调之前。 在共封装光学(CPO)等增长引擎尚未开始放量之前。 市场可能还没有定价某些东西。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is the next bottleneck after memory. If you're not convinced yet? $LITE CEO went out and said: "We're sold out really until the end of 2027. We see no end in sight." This is eerily similar to $INTC CEO saying "No Relief" on Memory Shortage Until 2028. But instead... Photonics has only started to ramp up as the new architectural paradigm of AI. The current EML laser + optical transceiver bottleneck cannot be understated. Hyperscalers are buying any EML capacity or optical transceiver, $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, and downstream providers can make. The CEO also reiterated: "We are completely sold out." The company [ $LITE ] is "way, way under-shipping" what customers want. "Lumentum says it is under shipping demand by roughly 25% to 30%, and that all capacity is fully allocated under long-term agreements through calendar 2027" If the photonics sector is completely sold out for the next two years with no end in sight. Before there's been any price hiking. And before growth engines like CPO have even started to ramp up. There's probably something the markets haven't priced in yet.
-
$SIVE牵手O-Net/Enablence布局CPO，标志硅光子CW DFB激光器供应链成型，替代EML瓶颈的新周期将至。
刚刚：$SIVE宣布与O-Net和Enablence达成CPO（共封装光学）重大合作。 Sivers将成为CPO的激光阵列供应商。 这实质上是论点验证，因为$SIVE成为InP CW DFB（连续波分布式反馈）激光器供应商，用于硅光子学。 简单来说，这就是当前光学瓶颈的$LITE -> $FN关系。 并且类似于现有的$POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO供应链，但位于亚洲。 Enablence生产"星形耦合器"，类似于$POET的插入器。 O-Net是一家大型组装商，将它们封装成成品模块。 香港的O-Net是华为、中兴通讯、Ciena、Nokia、 Fujitsu等公司的供应商。 （引用内容）： $SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 随着市场对未来潜在$LITE光子学公司的信息进行综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则针对即将到来的CPO/硅光子瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商确保EML（电吸收调制激光器）产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T收发器及上游产能，来自： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 这可能会触发需求量的突然全面范式转变。 $SIVE从InP CW DFB激光器中获益，用于SiPh（硅光子学）和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司，如$MRVL Celestial（购买$POET的插入器）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源实际上是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来，但我们知道它即将到来。 正如当前光学收发器周期所示： - $LITE和$COHR的光源公司获得的估值远高于专注于先进封装的$FN等公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但忽略了它们Starlight项目实际光源（类似$LITE类型）的来源。 风险存在，包括面临$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等多方竞争。所以再次强调，请务必自己做研究。 但我对此的反论点： Sivers足够早地根据$POET、Ayar和其他公司的规格定制激光器，在它们声名鹊起之前（类似于$POET到$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi（稳懋）认证的潜在赢面可以抵消这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 去年我做了$LITE的论点研究，并且仍然看好这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS（光学电路交换）。 但今年，我的重点是： $SIVE，作为我个人对新一轮光子学架构转变的CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对把握从当前EML周期轮动到即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子周期的个人观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: $SIVE announces major partnership with O-Net and Enablence for CPO. Sivers will be the laser array supplier for CPO. This is thesis validation in effect as $SIVE becomes InP CW DFB supplier for silicon photonics. In simpler terms, this is the $LITE -> $FN relationship for current optical bottlenecks. And mirrors the existing $POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO supply chain, but in Asia. Enablence makes the "Star Coupler", similar to $POET interposers. O-Net is a massive assembler, that packages them for the finished module. O-Net in HK is a supplier to companies like Huawei, ZTE, Ciena, Nokia, Fujitsu, and more.
-
Sivers作为CW DFB激光器上游供应商，受益于向CPO/硅光子学的架构转换，与当前EML周期的Lumentum形成技术路线对比。
通常我不会回复喷子，但这个平台的虚伪确实令人印象深刻。 随机X平台散户： “为什么$Lite涨了1000%你之前不告诉我？” 我： “我在最早期就发布了这个可能的$Lite的论点，而且没有付费墙。” X平台散户： 😡，“我打算花$400付费墙来做多$ADBE并做空$PLTR”。 尤其是在我的$AXTI论点已经从$12涨到$50三个月后…… 我免费分享我所有的思考过程。 市场可以立即或以任何方式定价任何阿尔法。（我也会出错，尤其是像$ETOR这样从$65跌到$33的股票）。 然而，不是原来的模式——分析师以$2000+的价格向其他对冲基金出售论点，让他们慢慢建仓。 然后散户在$400亿+的估值买入，正如$Lite所呈现的那样。 我的账号之所以增长，是因为我是少数打破这种模式的分析师之一。我向所有人免费分发新颖的信息综合。 股票是正和游戏，如果论点方向正确，每个人都会受益。 （引用推文内容： $SIVE今天上涨+73.78%（市值$2.31亿）。 市场正在定价关于下一个潜在$Lite光子学的信息综合。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要从当前光学瓶颈中受益。 $SIVE的另一个激光源则是为即将到来的CPO/硅光子学瓶颈准备的。 Lumentum目前主要从$Nvidia和超大规模云服务商确保EML激光器产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在购买任何800G/1.6T收发器及以下上游产能： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 接下来是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转换需要大量高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能会引发容量需求的突然范式转变。 $SIVE受益于InP CW DFB激光器用于SiPh和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（采购$POET的中介层）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来。但我们知道它正在逼近。 正如当前光学收发器周期所见： - $LITE和$COHR的光源比专注先进封装的$FN等公司获得更高的估值。 市场一直关注$POET，但错过了它们获得类似$SIVE类型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括面临$Lite、$COHR、$AVGO等多源竞争。所以，再强调一次，请自己做研究。 但我反对这种观点的理由是： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求，在它们成名之前（有点像$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在容量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在优势抵消了这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做了$Lite的论点，至今仍喜欢这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为我个人的CW DFB激光器敞口，用于新的光子学架构转换。 我分享自己的想法，捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期的轮动。）
原推 ↗英文原文
Normally don’t respond to trolls, but the hypocrisy on this platform is pretty impressive. Random X retail: “Why didn’t you tell me about $LITE before it went up 1000% already?” Me: “Posts my thesis about the next possible $LITE at the very beginning, without paywalls.” X retail: 😡, “I’m going to pay $400 for a paywall to long $ADBE and short $PLTR instead”. Especially after my $AXTI thesis that already went from $12->$50 in 3 months... I distribute all my thought processes for free. And markets can price in any alpha immediately or however they want. (I get things wrong as well, especially with names like $ETOR that crashed from $65 to $33). However, instead of the original model where analysts sell a thesis for $2000+ to other hedge funds to slowly accumulate. Then retail buys at $40 billion+ as seen with $LITE. My account’s been growing because I’m one of the few analysts to break that model. And I distribute novel information synthesis for free to everyone. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.
-
$SIVE是硅光子/CPO架构转变中的InP CW DFB激光器核心供应商，可能复制$LITE的估值扩张路径。
$SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 市场正在对下一个潜在的 photonics 瓶颈进行信息综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则面向即将到来的CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商那里获益，这些公司正在确保EML激光器的产能，用于当前的可插拔(optical transceiver)光收发器周期。 从当前的EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T光收发器及上游产能，从： -$AAOI（内部供应） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(Co-Packaged Optics,CPO)。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率连续波(CW) DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能引发一次完全的、突然的需求量范式转变。 $SIVE受益于用于SiPh和CPO的磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET使用$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装(advanced packaging)。 然后它们向上输送给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（后者购买$POET的interposers）。 然而，如果你追溯到上游，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光引擎($SIVE)；硅光子学封装($POET等)是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未达到。但我们知道它即将到来。 正如从当前光收发器周期所见： -$LITE和$COHR的光源需求获得的估值远高于$FN等专注先进封装的公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但错过了它们获取Starlight实际$ITE型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括与$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等公司面临多源竞争。所以再次强调，请务必做自己的研究。 但我对此的反驳： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求——早在这两家公司变得流行之前（类似于$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在成功可以抵消这一点。 为扩大产能而稀释股权的风险，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做过$LITE的研究，仍看好这只股票用于Google TPU ramp/光电路开关(OCS)。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为新一轮光子学架构转变的个人CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期轮动的思考。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is now up +73.78% today ($231M MC). As markets price in information synthesis of the next potential $LITE of photonics. If I had to explain the difference: One laser source in Lumentum primarily benefits from current optical bottlenecks. The other in $SIVE is for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonic bottleneck. Lumentum is largely benefiting right now from $NVDA and hyperscalers securing capacity of EML lasers for current pluggable optical transceivers cycles. As seen with the current EML bottleneck, hyperscalers are buying out any 800G/1.6T transceiver + upstream capacity from: - $AAOI (in-house) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers + design) -> $FN (assembly) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers) -> Innolight / Eoptolink What's next? Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics. The architectural shift to CPO requires massive arrays of high-power CW DFB lasers. And this would likely trigger a complete, sudden paradigm shift in volume demand. $SIVE benefits from InP CW DFB lasers for SiPh and CPO: The up and coming companies like: $AYAR, $POET source $SIVE lasers, but primarily do advanced packaging. Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers). However, if you go upstream, the light source is $SIVE. CW DFB lasers are light engine ( $SIVE ); the silicon photonics package ( $POET and others) is how it gets transmitted. CPO scale is not there yet. But we know it's coming. And as seen with current optical transceiver cycles: - Light sources from $LITE and $COHR demand much higher valuations than companies like $FN that focus on advanced packaging. Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight. The risks are present including facing multi-source competition with $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others. So again, make sure to do your own research. But my argument against that: Sivers been early enough to tailor custom lasers to fit $POET, Ayar, and other specifications before they got popular (sort like the $POET to $MRVL Celestial analogy). There's volume risks as well: But the potential Win Semi qualification offsets that. Dilution risk to scale capacity, is always present with every early-stage company as well. I did my thesis on $LITE last year and still love the stock for Google TPU ramp/OCS. But this year, I'm focusing on: $SIVE, as my personal CW DFB laser exposure for the new photonics architectural shift. I’m sharing my own thoughts on capturing the rotation from the current EML cycle to the upcoming CW DFB/Silicon Photonics cycle.
-
作者认为$SIVE是CPO时代的迷你$LITE，当前$140M估值严重低估，上涨空间巨大。
我做多$SIVE，成本$140M。 我认为这是下一个被市场和机构忽视的$LITE。 $SIVE生产磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器。 最接近的类比是当前EML激光器瓶颈中的$LITE。 但不是向Innolight/Eoptolink供应当前光模块的光源。 他们向$POET Starlight、Ayar SuperNova供应激光器。 以及为$NVDA主导的未来CPO/硅光子(silicon photonics)架构中的其他厂商供货。 就我个人而言，当前估值完全没有道理。 $POET是$SIVE这类激光器的先进封装...但$POET的估值是其激光器制造商本身的11倍多？ 这感觉就像把一个更先进的$FN（估值约$200亿）封测厂定价为$4000亿，而$LITE的估值才$400亿。 所以现在$130M的情况下： - 你拥有一个类似迷你$LITE的激光器供应商，通过$POET向Marvell Celestial + 超大规模云厂商供货。 - 向Ayar（$NVDA、$INTC）供应激光器，虽然他们也与$LITE、住友、$MTSI等多源采购。 以及其他潜在的新兴供应商，比如他们曾在财报中提及的Lightmatter（如2023年Q2财报）。这点未经证实，但供应链BOM是保密的。 此外，就收入而言，他们预计“未来几年”管道收入$453M。 而且，他们通过WIN（Win Semi）进行产能扩张：“Win Semi foundry正在认证中，为Sivers的激光器设计进行批量生产。” Sivers感觉就像是硅光子/CPO时代的$LITE，拥有Celestial（通过$POET）、Ayar等实际快速增长客户，未来还会有更多。 去年我可能不会喜欢它，但就在3周前，他们成功将所有债务再融资为$12M可转换贷款（10.85%）和$5M定期贷款（12%），理清了债务。 总计$17M，这在美股市场感觉不算什么，而$AAOI每隔一周就在做$5亿ATM增发。 最重要的是，这是他们面向硅光子/光子的纯正InP激光器业务。 他们的激光雷达(Lidar)业务正在爬坡，预计产生$53-138M的收入。 下行风险： - 执行力（老生常谈） - 为扩大产能与$LITE等竞争而导致的稀释 - $NVDA刚给他们$40亿后，$LITE、$COHR在规模上的竞争 - CPO上量延迟 我完全不明白，$LWLG这家零收入的概念股与$TSEM在一起，估值怎会达到$10亿以上。 也不明白$POET怎会比他激光器供应商的价值高出约9-10倍。 而$SIVE，作为CPO/硅光子的迷你$LITE等价物，估值才$140M。 我确实认为这在机构中基本未被发掘，因为这是一家OMX Nordic交易所的不知名公司（类似于我在开始发布关于InP衬底瓶颈之前的小市值$AXTI）。 但我确实认为，随着Celestial和Ayar规模扩大，他们会获得很多机构关注。 特别是如果$POET和$SIVE获得其他客户认证的话。 如果CPO在未来超大规模云厂商架构中完全取代可插拔光模块。 Sivers，如果通过WIN Semi认证并成为NVIDIA、Marvell、Intel和Broadcom架构的多元采购激光器供应商，就可能被大幅重新定价。 就像$LITE今天从$16涨到$622一样。 这只是我分享的个人逻辑，DYOR/NFI（非投资建议）。 TLDR： InP激光器是光子学中当前的瓶颈，从$LITE的估值可见一斑。 $SIVE看起来像是即将到来的CPO/硅光子爬坡中的迷你$LITE。 我个人在$SIVE建了多头，因为我认为他们是$NVDA即将到来的硅光子/CPO架构变革（加上GTC催化剂）的主要受益者。 对我来说，这里的上涨空间作为下一个可能的$LITE实在太过诱人了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself? It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. So now at $130m: - - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt. It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. Downside risk: - execution (as always) - dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B - CPO ramp gets delayed. I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
-
介绍自己的订阅区只是“洗澡时的灵感区”，不会把主线内容付费锁住。
哇，谢谢大家这个月的 4300 位订阅者！ 我最近刚把它设好，但还没正式发过帖。 这是我的第一篇！ 不过，这段时间我一直收到大量私信，所以顺手做个 PSA： 我做的任何 DD（比如 $SOI 到 $AAOI）最终都会出现在我的主时间线。 我不会把任何 thesis 帖永久锁在付费墙后面，但我可能会在订阅区稍微提前发一点。 尤其是因为 HFT 算法也会爬我的主帖，而我更愿意给零售投资者一个先手。 不过本质上，我把订阅区当成一个“洗澡时的灵感”空间。 所以那些零散的供应链、笔记、交易想法，比如： - 套利 / 期权 - DCA 加仓位 - 还没变成完整 thesis 前的早期想法 - 或者随机的 AMA 问答 我不想让主时间线塞满这些不正式的思考过程或评论。 所以我觉得，顺着这个过程分享我学到的东西，同时先给真正关注的人一个提示，会更有意思！ 如果你想看我白天到底在想什么，那这个频道就是干这个的！
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, thank you all for 4300 subscribers this month! I recently set it up, and never made a formal post about it. This is my first one! But, I've been getting floods of DMs about it. So just to clarify things with a quick PSA: Any DD I do ( $SOI to $AAOI) will always end up on my main timeline. I won't gatekeep any thesis posts I make, but I might post a tiny bit earlier in the sub spaces. Especially since HFT algorithms scrape my main posts too and I like to give retail audiences a heads up before the algos. But I basically use the subscription channel as a "Shower Thoughts" space. So any random supply chains, notes, trade ideas like - arbitrages/options - DCA levels - early ideas before they become full thesis or actionable ideas - or random ama questions I just didn't want to flood the main timeline with informal thought process or comments. So thought it would be more fun along the way to share what I learn and give real folks a heads up first. If you're interested in what I'm thinking about throughout the day, that's what the channel is for!
-
列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
-
认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
原推 ↗英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
-
认为 AAOI 正在按 1 亿美元级 ATM 稀释，当前 100 美元附近有压力。
@theburiedcity $AAOI 正在做 2.5 亿美元的稀释，并在接近 100 美元的位置卖股。 上一轮 ATM 被吸收得非常快。 在这个价位附近大概率会有一些阻力，直到这轮 ATM 被填完。然后如果它们停止稀释……那就完全看执行了，我个人觉得上行空间会非常大。
原推 ↗英文原文
@theburiedcity $AAOI is diluting $250m and selling around the $100 mark. The last ATM got absorbed extremely quickly. Probably going to have some resistance around that level until the ATM gets filled up. Then if they stop diluting… sky is the limit depending on execution imo
-
认为光子板块一周大跌通常会换来后续新高。
@FuckElon54528 光子板块这周刚经历了大跌，$LITE 跌到 550 美元，$AAOI 也跌到 83 美元。 这种回调出现后，通常后面就会冲出历史新高。
原推 ↗英文原文
@FuckElon54528 Photonics just had major red days this week, $LITE crashed to $550 and $AAOI dipped to $83. When corrections happen like that it usually leads to ATHs after
-
强调 AI 不能很好地做多跳连接和供应链映射，人类需要重新核对供应链 alpha。
AI 在多跳连接（多个阶段之间的关联）和供应链映射上非常弱。 这也包括去考虑那些并不直接和某家公司绑定、但会带来未来潜在瓶颈的意外事件（alpha）。 比如说，假设 $AAOI 在财报电话会上暗示，超大规模云厂商把市场上能买到的光收发器都买空了。 AI 不会自动把这件事和 $AXTI 的 InP（磷化铟）基板需求联系起来。 所以人类重新核对、重新梳理就很重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
AIはマルチホップ接続（複数の段階を経た繋がり）やサプライチェーンのマッピングが非常に不得意です。 これには、企業に直接結びついていない関連事象に基づく将来の潜在的なボトルネックのような、予期せぬ事象（アルファ）を考慮に入れることも含まれます。 例えば $AAOI が決算説明会で、ハイパースケーラーが市場にある光トランシーバーをありったけ買い占めていると示唆したとします。 AIはそれを $AXTI のInP（インジウムリン）基板の需要と関連付けることはありません。だからこそ、人間が再確認することが重要なのです。
-
称赞光子供应链总结，并表示自己更偏好高 beta 标的而不是设备商。
从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，这份光子供应链标的总结做得真好！ 为了最大化收益，我个人更偏好更高 beta 的标的，而不是像 $AIXA 这种设备商，或者爬坡较慢的名字。 尤其我预计光子会成为 AI 的新范式，所以我绝对不想错过这波。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI から $AAOI まで、フォトニクス・サプライチェーン銘柄の素晴らしいまとめですね！ 利益を最大化するために、私個人としては、$AIXAのような装置メーカーや立ち上がりの遅い銘柄よりも、よりハイベータな銘柄へのエクスポージャーを選びました。 特に、フォトニクスがAIの新しいパラダイムになると予想しているので、この波には絶対に乗り遅れたくないんです。
-
看好 AEHR 接近触发 hyperscaler 需求拐点。
@soup19152116 我已经覆盖过 $AEHR 了，而且我现在是多头，因为我觉得他们快接近 $AAOI 那种超大规模云需求拐点了。 过去两三个月里有不同的订单流，我觉得挺有希望。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soup19152116 I've covered $AEHR already and I'm long since I do think they be close to hitting their $AAOI-type hyperscaler demand inflection point. There were streams of different orders past two to three months, think it's promising.
-
BESI被纳入瓶颈标的，混合键合技术验证供应链重要性，但涨幅预期有限。
$BESIY / $BESI 在我的非正式瓶颈ETF里！不过我还需要补上 $LRCX、$AMAT 和 BESI 的新闻。这确实验证了混合键合(hybrid bonding)对先进封装的重要性。所以仅基于供应链重要性，就是很好的做多标的。但真不觉得它会像上面的其他股票那样涨300%，比如 $AAOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
$BESIY / $BESI was in my informal bottleneck ETF! Still need to catch up to the $LRCX, $AMAT and BESI news though. Does definitely validate how important hybrid bonding is to advanced packaging. So good long just based on supply chain importance. But don't really see it going up 300% like other names above like $AAOI.
-
研究了从 Oxford 到 AIXA 的光子设备公司，但认为多数不会像 AAOI、AXTI、SOI 那样暴涨。
我确实研究过从 Oxford 到 $AIXA 这些和光子设备相关的卖家。 它们会因为光子需求而明显受益，跟 $ASML 那种资本开支周期很像。 但我不觉得它们里有太多公司会像 $AAOI、$AXTI，甚至 $SOI 那样涨 300%+。 不像那些更大的对冲基金 / 机构，我是在用自己的投资组合去追增长，所以只要机会还在，我对很多高 beta 的名字并不排斥。
原推 ↗英文原文
I did look through all the photonics equipment related from sellers from Oxford to $AIXA. They get a material bump from photonics demand, similar to $ASML capex cycles. But I don't think many of them will end up 300%+ like $AAOI, $AXTI, or even $SOI. Unlike larger hedge funds/firms, I'm chasing growth in my personal portfolio, which is why I'm fine with a lot of higher beta names as long as opportunity is there.
-
博主分享光子学供应链投资组合，按风险等级分层推荐多只股票。
我是最早一批覆盖光子学供应链股票的人。 大多数自发布以来涨幅达到100-400%以上。 以下是我的核心论点帖的概要总结： 截至今日“最安全”的多头标的： - $TSEM（高塔半导体） - $SOI（Soitec） - $COHR——随时间推移具有防御性的复利型公司。 Soitec——在硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)架构攀升中拥有基板垄断地位，估值极低（即使近期上涨40%+，可能仍只有1.4倍市净率）。 高塔半导体——2028年市盈率处于十几倍区间，70%以上的产能已被预订，是$NVDA架构合作伙伴，基本上是光子学领域的纯Play版$TSM。 Coherent——在光子学领域基本上覆盖从材料/基板到激光器再到光收发器的全产业链，同时也是许多其他垂直领域的基础供应商。 最高贝塔/极高增长多头标的： $AXTI——与Sumitomo形成磷化铟(InP)双头垄断（后者正面临出口管制），与Vital在上游原料端形成双头垄断。 基本上，AXT处于整个光子学食物链的顶端。出口管制风险确实存在，但我的论点是：如果AXT倒下，那么AI驱动的光子学建设也会崩塌。所以还不如做多AXT。 $AAOI——到2027年收入增长10倍。激光器->设计->组装，美国制造。主要不确定性在于执行能力、扩大从$COHR收购的激光器产能等。 超大规模数据中心运营商的需求都存在。他们能交付吗？我愿意承担这个风险。 $IQE——基本上完全依赖重组和清理债务（市值约2亿美元）。作为$LITE的外延晶圆(epiwafer)知名供应商，其主要竞争对手Landmark估值超过35亿美元。 其现有产能（反应器）潜力存在，但基本上需要成功转型光子学并切断传统业务的拖累，才能实现10倍的重新定价。 风险最高，但也可能有相应的回报。 做多$GOOGL TPU生态系统相关： $LITE——由于光学电路交换机(OCS)垄断地位，其光学相关的物料清单(BOM)占比非常高。 如果你认为谷歌TPU是一个可能最终像$NVDA那样的万亿美元项目，那就做多$LITE。 谷歌计划2026年资本支出1750-1800亿美元，其AI基础设施CTO表示计划逐年增加，可能在未来8年投入1万亿美元。 如果这个计划成立，$LITE相对于未来潜力来说估值极低。当然，他们也向其他超大规模数据中心运营商供应激光器，但我会说它与谷歌增长的关联度更高。 _ 还有许多其他我覆盖过的标的： $POET——我本人不做多，但其4亿美元资产负债表提供了良好的缓冲。我发现从$MRVL攀升中发现的Celestial项目太遥远——例如2028年预计收入5亿美元、2029年10亿美元——对于2026年来说不具实质意义。 这很大程度上取决于他们的中介器(interposers)是否能获得其他超大规模数据中心运营商的认证，而不是通过Marvell走后门——这是主要的看涨逻辑。 $HIMX——我确实发现这个论点略有说服力，作为可能的$TSM共封装光学(CPO)供应商。 但我个人更偏好$SOI，会将更多集中度投入其中（因为Soitec作为已知供应商已基本覆盖整个硅光子学领域，而且刚从下行周期中走出）。 还有很多其他的如$NOK、$SHMN也很有趣，但我个人已将集中度投入到我认为最有说服力的标的。 像$LITE这样的“拥挤标的”并不意味着没有剩余上涨空间。只是在有新消息之前，估值已经更多地被反映进去了。 存在许多“关键供应商”，但供应链中的重要性...与将其转化为极高营收增长（例如$AAOI -> 45亿美元营收）之间存在差异。 但对于光子学敞口的简要总结，我的投资组合大致如下： 高集中度（更安全）： $TSEM晶圆代工、$SOI基板、$COHR全产业链 做多+卖看跌期权组合（高波动性）： $AXTI基板/原料、$IQE外延晶圆、$AAOI光收发器供应链 然后做多谷歌相关$LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
-
认为 AAOI 短期会受 2.5 亿美元 ATM 压制，100 美元附近或有阻力，但长期不重要。
短期看，$AAOI 正在以 100 美元的价格做 2.5 亿美元稀释，所以在一段时间内可能不会明显高于这个价位。 因为他们就是在这个价格卖给公开市场。上一个 ATM 他们很快就吸收完了。 中长期其实没那么重要。 如果我切换成日内交易员的眼镜来看，要是它再跌一次到 80 美元区间，我个人会很乐意买。
原推 ↗英文原文
Short term, $AAOI is diluting $250m at $100 so probably won’t go too high above that number for awhile. Cause they’re selling it but the open market at that price. They tapped into their last ATM ASAP. Mid-Long term doesn’t really matter. If I put on my day trading glasses, if it drops one more time to the $80s, strong yes imo.
-
强调仓位管理很重要，若因 AAOI 一只票下跌就睡不着，说明仓位配得不对。
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ 仓位管理极其重要。 如果因为像 $AAOI 这样的单一持仓一跌就睡不着，那大概率是你的配置方式出了问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ Position sizing is extremely important, if you can’t sleep at night because one position like $AAOI is red, you’re probably allocating wrong.
-
提示 AAOI 在 100 美元附近会有 ATM 压力
@scarfo_leo $AAOI 有一个 5 亿美元的 ATM，行权/发行价在 100 美元附近，那个价位大概会有 2.5 亿美元的卖压，持续不了太久。
原推 ↗英文原文
@scarfo_leo $AAOI has a $500m ATM at $100, probably going to be $250m selling pressure at that level for a tiny bit
-
总结低市值往往对应更高重估空间
一般经验法则： 市值越低，比如 $IQE -> $SOI -> $AXTI -> $AAOI -> $LITE -> $COHR 这样往上排， 重估后的上行空间往往越大。 当然，前提不是像 $AAOI 那样如果产能目标真兑现了还能把收入做 10 倍，不过这还得看它能不能做到。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KaneCapz General rule of thumb: Lower the MC eg. $IQE -> $SOI -> $AXTI -> $AAOI -> $LITE -> $COHR, etc. Higher upside from re-rating. That's unless you 10x revenue like $AAOI if they hit capacity projections, but we'll see if they do.
-
短期会有更好的买点，但长期都看涨
@Jacktecau990 短期里总会有更好的买点，比如 $SOI、$AAOI 或 $AXTI。 但从长期看，我预计它们都会上涨，因为光子会成为 AI 的新架构范式。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jacktecau990 There's always going to be better buying short term opportunities like with $SOI, $AAOI, or $AXTI. But long term I expect them all to go up as photonics becomes the new architectural paradigm for AI.
-
猜测 AAOI 可能又在 100 美元附近卖 2.5 亿
这种事总会发生。我的猜测是，他们大概又会在 100 美元附近卖出 2.5 亿美元的股份，跟之前那次 ATM 类似。 短期偏空，但长期大概率还是增厚，除非 $AAOI 像之前那样在超出实际执行所需的情况下反复用 ATM。 我当时就是为这点对 $AAOI 管理层很不满，因为现在不确定性又多了；他们本来从一开始就应该把需要多少钱说清楚。
原推 ↗英文原文
It happens. My guess is they’re probably selling $250m worth around $100 again like their previous ATM. Short term bearish, long term likely accretive unless $AAOI repeat use ATM beyond what they actually need to execute. That was the overhang I was mad with $AAOI management about, because now there’s more uncertainty given they should have just announced what they needed from the start.
-
短期仍偏空 AAOI，但长期看更像被低估
通常长期持股、把它忘掉会更好。因为你永远不知道第二天会不会突然来一个超大客户合作。 不过，短期看这还是偏空的，因为 $AAOI 如果新的 2.5 亿美元 ATM 真成功了，心理压力会很重，甚至有点像 $POET 那样继续稀释。 但如果你是 28 美元买入，那在 100 美元附近每天 -20% 到 +20% 的波动，其实就不太需要在意了。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s usually better to just hold stocks long term and forget about it. As you never know if there’s going to be a surprise hyperscaler deal the next day. However, this is net bearish near term with a PTSD overhang that $AAOI pulls a $POET and keeps diluting if the new $250m atm is successful. But if you bought at $28, you wouldn’t need to care about to short term -20% to 20% day to day changes happening around $100
-
继续看好 AAOI 的光链路，但不喜欢 ATM
这并没有改变我对 $AAOI 的看多逻辑： 他们从激光 -> 设计 -> 组装覆盖了每个月 378 美元的美国供应链，这在 80 亿美元市值下明显被低估。 但这确实改变了我对股价上行的部分看法，因为 ATM 是一种非常负面的到达方式（前面的 2.5 亿美元本来是可以接受的）。 在第一次 ATM 之后又再加 2.5 亿美元，会留下非常偏空的印象，就像 $POET 当时那样。 现在真正担心的是，他们新一轮做完后会不会再来一次。 所以 $AAOI 本来就该从一开始把需要的金额说清楚。
原推 ↗英文原文
It doesn’t change my bullish thesis around $378/month US supply chain from laser -> design -> assembly being very mispriced at $8B with $AAOI. But it does change some views on share appreciation, as ATMs are very net negative way to get there ($250m was fine after projections). Doubling that by another $250m after the first ATM gives left a very bearish impression like what $POET did. And now, main concern is doing it again after their new round finishes. Which is why $AAOI should have just announced the amount they needed form the start.
-
评论$AAOI将ATM规模扩至5亿美元，认为市场已吸收首轮卖压，但对过度ATM融资模式整体看空。
$AAOI提交了额外2.5亿美元的市价股票发行协议(ATM)，将总额提升至5亿美元。积极的信号是：$AAOI已完成其首个ATM。市场吸收了2.5亿美元的卖压（可能在股价涨至120美元前卖出了约1亿美元），但股价仍然上涨。修正案显示，截至2026年3月12日，根据销售协议已出售2,476,307股，获得总收益约2.49999983亿美元。然而，当涉及像$IREN或$POET这样公司的过度ATM时，我持极度看空态度，这并非针对$AAOI。如果5亿美元用于产能扩张，相比其他公司60亿美元的ATM，可能更有增值空间，人们可以等待结果。尽管如此，我对此并不满意，如果他们需要5亿美元，一开始就应该这么做。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI files for another $250 million USD ATM, upping the amount to $500 million. The positive note is: $AAOI has already finished their first ATM. Markets absorbed $250 million in selling pressure (likely ~$100 before the stock went to $120) and the stock increased anyway. “The amendment states that 2,476,307 shares have been sold for gross proceeds of approximately $249,999,983 under the sales agreement as of March 12, 2026” However, I’m extremely bearish when it comes to excessive ATMs for any company like $IREN or $POET, and it’s not inclusive to $AAOI. $500 million for capacity expansion is likely accretive compared to other $6 billion ATMs if people want to wait it out. That being said, not happy about it and if they needed $500 million, should have done it from the start.
-
吐槽把 2.5 亿 ATM 直接抬到 5 亿的时机太差
@MichaelCla20642 把 ATM 从 2.5 亿直接抬到 5 亿美元，这时机实在糟透了。 他们本来应该在那笔 2 亿美元的超大客户订单之后立刻这么做。 不过，第一轮 2.5 亿已经做完这一点倒是偏多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MichaelCla20642 Absolutely atrocious timing for to raise $250m -> $500M ATM. Should have been straight after the $200m hyperscaler deal. The fact they finished their first $250M ATM is bullish though
-
继续看好 AAOI，认为市场忽略其产能与链路价值
$AAOI 没有发生什么新变化，看起来反而是个买入机会。 我同意 Rosenblatt 分析师的说法： “这家公司不到 80 亿美元的市值，和它 2027 年可能达到 40 亿美元的收入相比，实在太低了。” 分析师可以对执行能力保持谨慎，而产能扩张从一开始就是核心问题。 我不觉得这里有什么新东西，这类争论只会一直持续到他们真正交付为止。 超大客户需求不是问题。 $GOOGL 和 $AVGO 也都发出了可插拔收发器生命周期延长的信号，但由于 $AAOI 覆盖了从激光到设计再到组装的整条供应链，它拥有很多人忽略的可选性。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nothings changed with $AAOI and it looks like a buying opportunity. I’d side with Rosenblatt analysts here where “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B”. Analysts can be bearish on execution, and scaling capacity was always the focal question. Don’t think anything’s new around here and this will always be debated until they actually deliver. Hyperscaler demand is not a question. $GOOGL and $AVGO also signaled pluggable transceiver life extensions, but since $AAOI covers the supply chain from laser to design to assembly, they can have optionality that most people miss
-
认为 AAOI 已经进入多家大厂路线图
@Sher_Lockknows 没有。但 $AAOI 其实不太需要那种催化，因为他们大概率已经进入了 $AMZN、$MSFT、$ORCL / $META 的路线图。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Sher_Lockknows No. But $AAOI doesn’t need it since they’re likely in $AMZN, $MSFT, and $ORCL / $META roadmaps.
-
把整条光子供应链都买下来并不奇怪
@demarscrypto 如果你认为 AI 的新范式就是光子化，那把整条光子供应链都买下来其实没什么问题。 衬底：$AXTI、$SOI 组装 / 激光 / 收发器 / 供应链：$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR 晶圆厂：$TSEM 这些就是我喜欢的名字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@demarscrypto There's nothing wrong with buying the entire photonics supply chain if you see it being the new paradigm of AI. Substrates: $AXTI, $SOI Assembly/Laser/Transceivers/supply chain: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR Foundry: $TSEM Were the names I've liked.
-
列出自己最喜欢的一篮子名字
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI、$AAOI、SK 海力士、$RDDT、$HIMS
原推 ↗英文原文
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI, $AAOI, SK Hynix, $RDDT, $HIMS
-
调侃自己喜欢的几个名字现在都涨了
@iiiiiiiivanth 哈哈，恭喜。 我之前最喜欢的两个是 $AAOI 和 $AXTI，年初最喜欢的是 $LITE。 现在 $SOI 也加入这个队伍了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@iiiiiiiivanth lol congrats. $AAOI and $AXTI were my two favorites earlier. $LITE was at the start of the year. Now $SOI has joined the party
-
调侃 IQE 涨太多了需要休息
@ryansfinance $IQE 从上个月开始已经涨了 136% 了，哈哈，有时候确实得歇一歇。 不是我所有的票都能像 $AAOI 或 $AXTI 那样每天直线往上冲 8%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ryansfinance $IQE is literally up 136% since last month lol, sometimes things need a break. Not all my picks like $AAOI or $AXTI can go in a vertical line up 8% a day. https://t.co/lxJqKT5b5e
-
说还有新名字，会继续找底部标的
@Kyrentz 还有几个新的，我今天晚些时候会发一个已经见底的名字。 不过像我之前提过的 $AAOI 这种票，大概率还有很长的路要走。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Kyrentz There’s a few new ones, I’ll post a name later today that’s bottomed. But things like $AAOI that I’ve mentioned likely have a long way to go
-
用 Cramer 反向指标串起一串当日强势股
Jim Cramer：“今天就是没法赚钱的一天。” 当天： $AXTI：+15.08% $AAOI：+11.5% $HIMS：+6.05% $LITE：+7.06% $SNDK：+6.12% $IQE：+19.08% SK 海力士：+4.38% $MU：+4.65% $COHR：+4.86% 这和前一个帖子里周日提到的“150-200 美元原油”呼应上了。 Cramer 指标又一次显灵了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jim Cramer: “Just impossible Day to Make Money”. Today: $AXTI: +15.08% $AAOI: +11.5% $HIMS: +6.05% $LITE: +7.06% $SNDK: +6.12% $IQE: +19.08% SK Hynix: 4.38% $MU: +4.65% $COHR: +4.86% This is following the previous post about “$150-200” Oil on Sunday. The Cramer indicator strikes again.
-
回顾光子股涨幅，强调持有波动并关注基本面。
$AAOI 自 30 美元以来已上涨 4 倍。 如果你听了匿名者的建议，我做过研究（thesis）的每一个光子学（Photonics）名字，从 $AXTI 到 $LITE，都上涨了 2 倍、3 倍或 4 倍。 希望那些炒作“原油涨至 200 美元”或 $IREN “内部人抛售”的末日论者没有让你在 80 美元时恐慌性抛售你的头寸。 这就是为什么你要在波动中持有并关注底层基本面。 并非每家公司都能在一年内从 4.5 亿美元营收增长到 45 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is now up 4x since $30. Every photonics name from $AXTI to $LITE I’ve done a thesis on increased 2x, 3x, or 4x if you listened anon? Hope the Crude Oil to $200 or $IREN troll “insider sales” doomposters didn’t make you panic sell your positions at $80. This is why you hold through volatility and look at underlying fundamentals. Not every company can go from 450m revenue to $4.5B in just one years time.
-
Rosenblatt 分析师认为 $AAOI 市值被低估，且可能是 $ORCL 客户。
据 Rosenblatt 分析师称，$ORCL 可能是 $AAOI 的超大规模客户(hyperscaler client)。 当我首次发布关于 $AAOI 的观点时，大家的怀疑程度就像我对 $AXTI 的论点帖子一样强烈。 但别只听我的一面之词。 我在财报后分享的确切观点，现在也得到了其他机构分析师的呼应： “考虑到其 2027 年的收入潜力为 40 亿美元，该公司低于 80 亿美元的市场资本化市值过低。” —— Rosenblatt。 鉴于收入增长，光子(photonics)类股票的重定价之路可能还很漫长。
原推 ↗英文原文
$ORCL likely $AAOI hyperscaler client per Rosenblatt analyst. When I first posted about $AAOI everyone had extreme doubts like on my thesis post on $AXTI. But don’t take it from me. My exact same sentiment I shared after earnings is now echoed by other institutional analysts: “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B “ - Rosenblatt. Likely a long way to go for repricing photonic names given revenue ramp.
-
光子学作为AI新范式，不受地缘政治及油价波动影响。
领先的光子学(Photonics)公司并不关心原油价格飙升。 $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% 光子学是人工智能(AI)的下一个范式，伊朗战争不会改变这一点。 https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
原推 ↗英文原文
Leading photonic names do not concern itself with Crude Oil prices spiking. $AXTI +14.13% $AAOI +6.73% $LITE +10.22% $COHR +3.39% Photonics is the next paradigm of AI, the War in Iran doesn’t change that. https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT
-
博主庆祝粉丝破十万，感谢关注并重申坚持免费分享研究心得的初心。
哇……刚刚达到 10 万粉丝！ 很高兴这么多人觉得我对 $AAOI 到 $EWY 的观点有帮助。 回顾来看，我想这 largely 是因为我坚持了最初的做法： -> 信息综合 -> 寻找人们未曾关注的新角度 -> 从小型瓶颈到大型科技公司，发布可执行的交易思路 -> 如果结果正确就庆祝！ 我认为去年大部分案例： 从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 最终都看对了，实现了翻倍或三倍，因此近期人气高涨。 没多少人感兴趣于研究过程，但当他们两个月后看到成果时，我想他们开始更关注了？ 无论如何，我会继续做我在拥有 800 粉丝时做的事。那时只有我和一些 Reddit 上的朋友。 但 X 给我这个机会与他人分享想法，这太棒了。 达到 10 万粉丝对我来说是一种轻微的验证，表明我免费发布的想法至少值得阅读（即使你不跟随操作）。 所以，只想对你们所有人说声谢谢！
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow… 100K followers just now! Glad this many people find my thoughts about $AAOI to $EWY helpful. From reflection, I think it’s largely because I’ve been staying true to what I’ve done at the start: -> information synthesis -> finding new angles that people haven’t looked at -> publishing actionable trade ideas from small bottlenecks to megacap companies. -> celebrating if they turn out correct! And I think majority of them from last year: From $AXTI to $LITE ended up being right and doubling or tripling, hence the recent popularity. Not many people are as interested in the research process but when they see the fruition of it two months later, I guess they start paying more attention? Regardless, I’ll keep doing what I’ve been doing when I had 800 followers. When it was just me and some friends from Reddit. But it’s amazing X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts to others. Hitting 100K followers is slight validation to me that my ideas I publish for free are at least worth reading (even if you don’t follow them). So, just wanted to say a thank you to all of you!
-
AAOI暗示其美国产能超COHR，引发关注
@Blazedsin 我的意思是 $AAOI 基本上发出了信号，表明其美国产能大于 $COHR，这算是个挺大的新闻。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blazedsin I mean $AAOI basically signaled their US production capacity is bigger than $COHR, which is pretty big news
-
$AAOI获超大规模客户大额订单，基本面验证优于内部人抛售担忧。
“$AAOI 收到来自主要超大规模客户的首笔 1.6T 数据中心光收发器(Transceivers) 2 亿美元批量订单” “我们预计很快将成为美国最大的 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器产能基地” 这逐渐证实了他们盈利预测中每月 3.78 亿美元的收入预期。 人们曾对内部人抛售感到恐慌，但关键在于执行力和基本面。 尤其是当他们获得来自 $AMZN、$META 或 $GOOGL 等超大规模客户(Hyperscalers)的批量订单时。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI Receives First $200M Volume Order of 1.6T Data Center Transceivers from Major Hyperscale Customer” “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for 800G and 1.6T transceivers in the U.S” This is gradual confirmation of $378m/month revenue from their earnings projections. People were panicking over insider sales, but what matters is execution and fundamentals. Especially when they’re getting volume orders from Hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, or $GOOGL
-
光子学是AI新范式，需忍受波动，切勿使用杠杆。
如果有任何变化，我会发帖说明。包括关于 $AAOI 的情况。 不幸的是，目前市场交易主要受宏观因素和恐惧情绪驱动，除非基本面有像 $HIMS 那样极具颠覆性的变化，否则任何基本面消息都会被避险情绪所覆盖。 光子学(Photonics)是人工智能领域的新一轮范式转移，目前只是在等待度过未来一年的波动期。 不幸的是，许多人正经历着这样的回撤，这就是为什么不要使用杠杆(Margin)如此重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
If anything’s changed I would have posted about it. Including with $AAOI. Unfortunately market trades off macro + fear right now and any fundamentals if it’s not extremely game changing like $HIMS will override risk-off sentiment. Photonics is the new paradigm shift with AI, it’s just waiting out volatility over the next year. Unfortunately a lot of people have draw downs like these, which is why it’s important not to use margin.
-
分析AAOI估值与基本面，建议结合营收和供应链地位而非仅看图表。
如果 $AAOI 股价上涨 100%，并声称明年每月营收将达 3.78 亿美元，这得益于 $META、$MSFT 和 $AMZN 购买其能生产的所有供应品。而它现在的估值为 70 亿美元。我不会只看图表，还会关注营收预测、毛利率、在供应链中的地位以及预测数据。
原推 ↗英文原文
If $AAOI ran up 100% and stated they're doing $378M/month revenue next year off likely $META, $MSFT, and $AMZN buying any supply they can make. And they're valued at $7B now. I wouldn't look at the chart alone, would look at revenue projections, gross margins, position in supply chains, and forecasts.
-
对于有指引或瓶颈的公司，内部人减持不重要，执行和达成目标才是关键。
如果一家公司提供业绩指引或处于瓶颈环节，内部人减持可能是我关注的最不重要的因素。 $AAOI 给出了 2027 年下半年营收 3.78 亿美元、毛利率约 36-40% 的指引，而其市值为 70 亿美元。 只要他们能执行并达成指引，我不在乎谁在卖出股票。 两个月前我在 Reddit 首次发布 $AXTI（当时约 12 美元）时，也有同样的担忧，而它自那以来已翻了三倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
Insider selling is probably the least material thing I look at if a company gives projections or serves as a bottleneck. $AAOI gave projections of $378M/revenue off ~36-40% gross margins H2 2027 and they're a $7B MC. Don't care if someone sells their shares as long as they execute and hit projections. Same concern was said about $AXTI on Reddit 2 months ago when I first posted it around $12 and it's tripled since then.
-
看好AXTI垄断潜力，COHR最安全，AAOI/IQE高弹性，TSEM短期滞涨。
$AXTI 是我的个人最爱，因为其衬底/原料被用于任何光子学瓶颈环节。我只需要有人加入他们的董事会，告诉他们自己是半垄断地位并提价。关于时间框架：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 可能在未来两年因需求激增而迎来高光时刻。由于共封装光学(CPO)的影响，可插拔光模块的指数级增长曲线可能在 2028 年略有放缓，因此对类似中际旭创/新易盛的玩家会更谨慎。$AAOI 自产激光器，所以如果有转型时间，我确信他们会通过认证。简而言之：最安全的是 $COHR，他们业务广泛多元化。最高上行空间可能是 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI，鉴于其起点较小。Soitec 和 $TSEM 有显著上行空间，两年内可能翻倍或翻三倍。但 2026 年可能是死钱。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is my personal favorite since inp substrate/feedstock is used across any photonics bottleneck. I just need someone to join their board and tell them that they're a semi-monopoly and to price hike. For timeframes: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI probably get their time to shine next two years from extreme demand ramp. The exponential curve for pluggables probably dwindles a tiny bit in 2028 from cpo? So would be more cautious with innolight/eoptolink type players. $AAOI manufactures their own lasers, so I'm sure they'll get qualified if there's any time for a pivot. TLDR: For safest, $COHR. They're widely diversified. Highest upside probably $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI given their small starting point. Significant upside for Soitec, $TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years. But probably dead capital for 2026.
-
超大规模云厂商资本支出未放缓，光学组件产能已满，预示AI光子学瓶颈将至，建议持有。
情绪（如战争/石油/LNG）决定短期价格，基本面决定长期价格。 我看不到那些关键的超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN 等）的资本支出有任何放缓迹象。 而且，在光学组件全面扩产之前，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 的所有产能已在涨价前满负荷运转。 当新的 AI 集群架构采用光子学进行扩展时，这就是即将出现的瓶颈的定义。 如果这些公司的基本面没有发生任何破坏性变化，可能最好持有以度过短期波动。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sentiment (eg. War/Oil/LNG) dictates short term prices, fundamentals dictate prices in the long run. I see zero slowdown from the hyperscaler capex that matters ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, etc). And before the ramp for optical all their capacity from $AAOI to $LITE are already maxed out before price hikes. This is the definition of an upcoming bottleneck when new AI cluster architectures use photonics to scale. If there's been nothing breaking the fundamentals of any of these companies, probably better to hold through short term volatility.
-
分析IQE、AAOI及AXTI等小众AI供应链标的的早期机会与执行风险。
可能尚未被定价的只有那些更小众的领域，例如在磷化铟(InP)衬底上的外延工艺，或者那些刚刚触及拐点的新型激光器/收发器玩家。 我曾提到 $IQE 处于极早期阶段（但风险更高），因为其同行 Landmark 的估值已达 35-40 亿美元。 这取决于重组情况。 $AAOI 也处于极早期，情况更微妙，因为他们提供端到端服务（激光器 -> 设计 -> 组装）。如果他们能在每一层执行到位，淘汰 $FN/中际旭创 类型的玩家并扩大利润率，可能实现 10 倍增长。 但这很大程度上取决于执行能力。 $AXTI 也许有机会，如果 Shkreli 加入董事会并教他们如何涨价的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
Only ones probably not priced in are the more niche ones like epitaxy process on top of the InP substrates or maybe new laser/transceiver players that hit their inflection point. I mentioned $IQE was extremely early (but more high risk), given their peer Landmark was priced at $3.5-$4B. This depends on restructuring. $AAOI is also very early, it's more nuanced since they do end to end (laser -> design -> assembly). If they can execute across each layer and cut out $FN/Innolight type players and expand margins, could be a 10x. This largely depends on execution though. $AXTI maybe if Shkreli joins their board and teaches them how to hike prices.
-
光子学成AI新瓶颈，激光与InP紧缺，CPO变革预计2028年。
光子学是下一个主要瓶颈。 $NVDA 提前发出了每一个瓶颈的信号：从 HBM（与三星/SK海力士合作）到 CoWoS，再到如今对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的投资： 激光晶圆厂、共封装光学(CPO) 和磷化铟(InP)。 针对每个瓶颈中最具非对称性的多头标的： 1. InP 衬底：$AXTI，住友，JX 2. InP 上游原料+加工：$AXTI 3. 激光器：$AAOI（自研），$AVGO，$COHR，$LITE 4. CPO：$TSEM，Soitec。 $AAOI 财报电话会确认了激光器瓶颈，三家超大规模云厂商希望买断其能生产的所有光收发器。 $AXTI 的积压订单确认了 InP 衬底瓶颈。（玩家图片来源：IndexBox） CPO 瓶颈被广泛预期将在 2027-2028 年末发生。 $AVGO 关于“CPO”的评论带来了短期波动。但这不同于正在发生的激光->收发器和 InP 瓶颈。 关于时间框架： $AAOI，$LITE，$COHR 和激光收发器瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计像内存一样在 2028 年前恶化）。 $AXTI，住友和 InP 衬底瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计只要 AI 在未来多年使用光子学，情况就会恶化）。 由 $NVDA 引领的向 CPO 的大型架构转变可能发生在 2028 年。 这些对于 AI 的下一个范式转变来说似乎是不可避免的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is the next major bottleneck. $NVDA has signaled each one ahead of time from: HBM (with Samsung/Sk Hynix) to CoWoS and now with the $LITE and $COHR investment: Laser Fab, CPO, and InP. For the most asymmetrical longs in each bottleneck: 1. InP Substrates: $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX 2. InP Upstream Feedstock + Processing: $AXTI 3. Lasers: $AAOI (internal), $AVGO, $COHR, $LITE 4. CPO: $TSEM, Soitec. The laser bottleneck was confirmed from the $AAOI earnings call when three different hyperscaler wanted to buy out any optical transceiver they can produce. The InP substrate bottleneck was confirmed with the backlog from $AXTI. (Image source of players: IndexBox) And the CPO bottleneck is widely expected to happen later in late 2027-2028. There's short term volatility from $AVGO comments around "CPO" in specific. But that's different than the laser -> transceiver and InP bottlenecks happening now. For timeframes: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR and the laser transceiver bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse like memory into 2028). $AXTI, Sumitomo and the InP substrate bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse as long as AI uses photonics for the many years to come). And the larger architectural shift to CPO led by $NVDA will likely happen in 2028. These feel inevitable for the next paradigm shift in AI.
-
对比光通信私有公司高估值与上市公司基本面，指出私有公司若上市恐崩盘。
在光通信(CPO)领域，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的内幕人士抛售行为，与公司创纪录的收入/利润形成实质性差异。与此同时，私有公司估值翻倍（例如从 $910亿涨至 $1590亿面向散户），而 $HOOD 到 $COIN 等上市公司却在暴跌。如果这些私有公司上市，其虚高的估值很可能导致股价崩盘，而上市公司基本面依然稳健。
原推 ↗英文原文
Insider selling on photonic names from $LITE to $AAOI while companies generate record revenue/profit is materially different. Private companies hike valuations by 2x (eg. $91B -> $159B to retail) while public companies from $HOOD to $COIN are crashing. If these companies traded publicly, most would all likely tank from their inflated valuations, while public companies are fundamentally sound.
-
作者认为AAOI因拥有完整供应链且估值远低于同行，即便股价上涨仍具投资价值。
这是我常引用的一个完美例子，说明那些只看“图表”而不看基本面（Fundamentals）的 $AAOI 观察者。我在20多美元时买入，现在90多美元仍在买入，因为根据预测，它比以往任何时候都便宜。如果你预计营收为43.5亿美元，而市值仅为75亿美元，且你拥有从激光晶圆制造（Laser Fab）-> 光收发器设计 -> 美国组装的完整供应链...相比之下，其他同行营收更低，市值却高达400亿-500亿美元以上，那么它还有很长的路要走。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is the perfect example I like to cite of the "Chart" spotters that don't look at fundamentals for $AAOI. I was buying it in the 20's, but I'm still buying it in the 90's because it's cheaper than ever given projections. If you're projecting $4.35B in revenue off a $7.5B MC and you own the entire supply chain from laser fab -> transceiver design -> assembly in America... Whereas all your other peers are worth $40B-$50B+ doing less revenue than that, then it has a long way to go.
-
看好$AAOI美国制造优势，认为其将超越$LITE并获超大规模云厂商青睐。
我们已经起飞……尽管更广泛的光子学板块下跌，$AAOI 仍上涨 11.26%。 每个人都在寻找下一个从 49 美元涨到 614 美元的 $LITE。 有时候，它可能就坐在你面前？ 高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真心认为这很容易在明年实现 3 倍增长。 英伟达资助了 $COHR，后者在马来西亚进行 800G/1.6T 的制造。 $LITE 在泰国使用 $FN 进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造设施。 我会不断强调这一点，但 Applied Optoelectronics 是唯一纯正的“美国制造”光收发器标的。 再次重申，两家“美国”光公司将其外包给亚洲，而 $AAOI 多年来一直在德克萨斯州建设产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以建立美国版本，以隔离其最关键供应链的地缘政治风险。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链设置，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（市值 550 亿美元）2026 财年预估约 29.1 亿美元。 $AAOI（市值 71 亿美元）2027 年下半年：43.5 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）。 如果管理层执行到位（且拥有约 40% 的毛利率），$AAOI 实际上将超越 $LITE 2026 财年的预测。 再说一次。$AAOI（70 亿美元市值）如果实现其预测，将超越 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）整个 2026 年的收入预测。 亚洲的 $FN，2026 年预测实际上与 AAOI 完全相同。 12.4% 的毛利率带来约 43.9 亿美元收入。而它的市值是 200 亿美元（且毛利率低得多）。 即使 $AAOI 只达到目标的 70%，其估值也很可能大幅重估，远超当前市值。 简而言之：在这些水平上很难看到 $AAOI 的下行风险，尤其是随着 3-4 家超大规模云厂商（可能是 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN）希望购买其未来几年的所有产能。而且 $GOOGL 不采用共封装光学(CPO) 路线。 $AAOI 在增长方面超越了 $CRDO、$ALAB、$LITE 等，并受益于光子学主题相对于铜缆（前两者）的优势。 只要管理层交付成果，$AAOI 仍然是 1 年期高确信度的非对称性机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
We've reached liftoff... $AAOI +11.26% despite the broader photonics names down. Everyone is trying to find the next $LITE that went from $49 to $614. Sometimes, it might just be sitting right in front of you? https://t.co/deBAD017ll
-
对比LITE、AAOI和COHR的风险收益特征及配置建议
这取决于你的风险偏好。我非常看好 $LITE，由于它与 $GOOGL 的 TPU 项目紧密绑定，股价很可能继续走高。 鉴于 $AAOI 的市值规模及营收的极端增长潜力，其实现多倍回报的潜力更大，我只是想尝试寻找下一个 $LITE。 我认为 $COHR 可能是最安全的选择，如果我要配置资金并使其成为最大仓位的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
Depends on your risk profile. I really, really like $LITE, likely going higher as it's tethered to $GOOGL TPU program. $AAOI just has more potential for multi-x return given MC size and extreme revenue ramp, just wanted to try and find the next $LITE. I do think $COHR is probably the safest, if I were to be parking capital + making it the largest position.
-
分析$POET因$MRVL CPO业务受益逻辑，认为当前估值具备长期风险回报优势。
$MRVL 发布了财报。从电话会议纪要来看： 目标是通过 Celestial 共封装光学(CPO) 收入，在 2028 年实现 5 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，2029 年达到 10 亿美元 ARR。 $POET 作为备受散户喜爱的 10 亿美元市值中介层(interposer)股票，是此次产能爬坡（Starlight 光源）的主要受益者。 通常，收入加上库存积压会在制造和发货前约 1200 万至 1800 万美元时开始显现。 -> 大部分订单流可能会在 2027 年下半年开始涌入。 对于物料清单(BOM) 成本，估计占比约为 10-15%（推测）。因此，仅 Celestial 项目可能在 2027 年带来约 5000 万至 7500 万美元收入，2028 年营收可能达到 1 亿至 1.5 亿美元。 最大的风险是客户集中度，如果 $MRVL 想要对其光引擎进行双源采购(dual-source)。 但 $POET 和 Celestial 花了数年时间共同开发这种特定的集成方案，因此现在寻找替代方案很可能会推迟 Marvell 2028 年的商业化时间表。 而且 $POET 的上行空间在于它总能找到更多客户。 鉴于 $POET 近期稀释后依然稳健的现金资产负债表，以及热门行业较高的市销率(P/S) 倍数： 随着人们提前布局 2027 年下半年的收入，可能在 2026 年底看到估值重估(re-rating)。 我认为很多散户通常很擅长发现像 $RKLB 这样的“登月”级标的，但很多时候他们入场太早。我的观点是 $POET 也是如此。 搭乘那些刚刚触及拐点(如 $AAOI 或 $AEHR) 的股票上涨要容易得多。 但无论如何： 在 6.64 美元的价格下，风险/回报比看起来很有吸引力，尤其是拥有通往超大规模云服务商的 Celestial 后门，前提是投资者有耐心等待一年。 我在查看盈利预测时想到了 $POET。
原推 ↗英文原文
$MRVL released earnings. From transcript: Targeting $500m ARR 2028, $1B ARR 2029 with Celestial CPO revenue. $POET the $1B retail favorite interposer stock, is the large beneficiary from the ramp (Starlight light source). Usually revenue + stockpiles start to hit ~12M-18M ahead for manufacture and shipment -> lot of the flow will start hitting likely h2 2027. For BOM likely est. 10-15% (speculation). So possibly ~$50-75m 2027, from Celestial alone, and $100m-$150M revenue in 2028. Biggest risk is customer concentration, in the event $MRVL wants to dual-source its light engines. But $POET and Celestial spent years co-developing this specific integration, so a workaround now would likely delay Marvell's 2028 commercialization timelines. And the upside is $POET can always find more customers too. Given $POET's solid cash balance sheet from recent dilution + rich P/S multiples for a hot industry: Probably could see re-rating late 2026 once people frontrun h2 2027 revenue. I think a lot of retail are typically good at finding moonshots like $RKLB, but a lot of times they're too early. My opinion is that it's the same for $POET. It's a lot easier ride up stocks that have just hit that inflection point like $AAOI or $AEHR. But regardless: Risk/reward at $6.64 with a Celestial backdoor to hyperscalers seems promising if people have the patience to wait a year. Just thought about $POET when I went through earning projections.
-
澄清AVGO推迟CPO利好传统光模块，市场误读导致板块错杀。
整个市场都误解了 $AVGO 首席执行官关于共封装光学(CPO)的言论。 这导致今天光子学板块从 $LITE 到 $COHR 在早盘出现抛售。 市场往往根据头条新闻进行交易，却忽略了所有细微差别。 CPO 是光子学技术的一种演进。 这种延迟对某些光子学参与者如 $AAOI 来说极其利好。 虽然对 Soitec 等 CPO 公司而言总体是负面的。 市场和人们将 CPO 与整个光子学板块混为一谈。 Tan 基本上只是给传统光收发器制造商的产品生命周期带来了巨大的延长。 原话如下： “我想说的是，你不需要去追逐那些被称为 CPO 的闪亮新事物，即使我们是 CPO 的领导者。CPO 会在适当的时候到来，不是今年，也许也不是明年，但会在它该来的时候到来。” 事实上，$GOOGL 拒绝 CPO 且 $AVGO 将 CPO 时间线预测推迟数年： 这可能是对许多光子学公司（如开盘下跌 8% 后翻红的 $AAOI（光收发器））来说最棒的事情。 机架内部，超大规模数据中心仍可使用铜缆。但对于更长距离，使用的是可插拔光收发器（现在其生命周期延长了数年）。 个股往往被一起抛售，但最大的赚钱机会在于理解大家忽略的细微差别。
原推 ↗英文原文
The entire market misunderstood $AVGO CEO’s comments around CPO. This caused a selloff today on the photonics sector from $LITE to $COHR in the morning. Markets trade off headline news but miss all the nuances. CPO is an evolution to photonics. This delay is extremely bullish to certain photonics players like $AAOI. While net negative to CPO companies like Soitec. Markets and people conflated CPO with the photonics sector as a whole. Tan basically just gave traditional transceiver makers a massive extension on their product lifecycle. The exact quote: "What all I'm trying to say is you don't need to go run into some bright shiny objects called CPO, even as we are the lead in CPOs. CPOs will come in its time, not this year, maybe not next year, but in its time." In fact, $GOOGL rejecting CPO and $AVGO delaying CPO timeline projections by years: Is probably the most greatest thing that can happen to many photonics companies like $AAOI (optical transceivers) that dropped 8% on open then recovered to green. Inside the rack, hyperscalers can still use copper. But for longer distances, pluggable optical transceivers are used (and now get a life extension by years). Names get sold off all together, but where the most money to be made is understanding the nuances everyone misses.
-
澄清博通CPO评论，指出市场误将CPO利空等同于光子学板块利空。
是的，光子学板块今天被抛售，我的持仓也有轻微回撤，但我觉得人们误解了 $AVGO 关于共封装光学(CPO) 评论的细微差别。 这对许多光模块(optical transceiver)个股其实是非常看涨的。比如 $AAOI 先跌了 9% 但最终翻红。 主要是像 Soitec 这样具有 CPO 敞口的个股会是净利空。 但大多数人甚至算法都将 CPO 与光子学混为一谈，导致整个板块被抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah photonics got dumped today, had a slight drawdown too, but feel like people missed the nuance for $AVGO CPO comments. It’s actually extremely bullish for a lot of the optical transceiver names. Stuff like $AAOI sold off 9% then ended up green. Mainly cpo exposure names like soitec would be net negatives Majortity of people and likely algos conflate cpo with photonics though so whole sector got sold off
-
机构对小众光子上游认知滞后，X平台热度具误导性。
对于 $AAOI 来说并不意外。许多机构可能直到被大型 X 账号提及，才听说过像 $AXTI 这样更小众的光子学上游玩家。FinX 社区对这些标的介入极早，但由于 X 平台本身存在泡沫效应，感觉似乎已经“拥挤”。但如果你问这里以外的人这些名字是什么，他们完全一无所知。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not surprising with $AAOI. A lot of institutions probably never heard of a lot of the more niche photonic upstream players like $AXTI until they get mentioned by larger X accounts The FinX community is extremely early to a lot of these names but it feels “crowded” because X is a bubble. But if you ask anyone outside of here what some of these names are, they’ll have 0 clue.
-
AAOI波动剧烈且逢低买入，建议避免使用止损。
@michaelsikand 是的，每次 $AAOI 回调时，它就会被买入。不过该股的波动性（Volatility）确实疯狂，经常会出现从绿色（上涨）状态随机回撤10%的情况，这就是为什么人们不应该使用止损单（Stop Losses）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@michaelsikand Yeah anytime it dips, $AAOI just gets bought out. Volatility is crazy with the name though, has -10% random drawdowns into green, which is why people shouldn’t use stop losses.
-
看好AAOI未来一年风险回报，但需承受高波动。
@Ren_aramb 不错！与同行相比，我认为 $AAOI 在未来一年的风险回报比极具吸引力。只是它的贝塔值(高波动性)非常高，所以需要忍受波动并建立你自己的信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ren_aramb Nice! I see $AAOI risk-return extremely promising over the next year compared to other companies. It’s just very high beta so need to stomach the volatility and develop your own conviction.
-
$AAOI逆势上涨，因垂直整合供应链且估值远低于同行，潜力巨大。
$AAOI 面临异常强劲的买盘压力。 今天所有主要的光子学(Photonics)概念股都在下跌： $LITE 下跌 -4.74% $COHR 下跌 -8% $AXTI 下跌 -2.5% $IQE 下跌 -20% $FN 下跌 -3.98% 但 $AAOI 是光子学板块中唯一飘红的股票。 当你审视 $AAOI 的“激光器->设计->组装”供应链时，其估值仅为 75 亿美元，存在巨大且纯粹的上涨空间。 相比之下，其亚洲或西方竞争对手的估值均超过 500 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI has exceptionally strong buying pressure. All major photonics names are down today: $LITE down -4.74% $COHR down -8% $AXTI down -2.5% $IQE down -20%. $FN down -3.98. But $AAOI is the photonics name green. There’s a raw, unadulterated upside when you look at $AAOI laser -> design -> assembly supply chain valued at $7.5B. And compare it to their Asian or Western counterparts all valued at $50B+
-
强调在高波动股票交易前需建立个人确信度。
@awarness1780 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 都具有极高的贝塔值(高波动性)，因此在入场前，建立自己对这笔交易的确信度非常重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
@awarness1780 $AAOI and $AXTI are both extremely high beta which is why it’s important to build conviction in the trade yourself before entering.
-
分析$AAOI空头逻辑与执行风险，看好其超大规模云需求及潜在10倍回报。
我看到的关于 $AAOI 的空头基本观点是：2.5亿美元的定向增发(ATM)不足以覆盖产能爬坡，他们还需要5000万至2.78亿美元（考虑到规模，这只是小钱）。 主要论点始终围绕执行力和潜在逆风： - 他们能否将台湾组装业务回流美国 - 扩大激光产能，以便不再零星使用 $COHR - 制造扩张的执行情况 - 中国厂商是否会导致毛利率压缩 - 共封装光学(CPO)的到来（$GOOGL + $AVGO 已确认其退出） 我不认为这是客户集中度问题，因为从 $AMZN、$MSFT 到 $META 的每个超大规模云服务商都在抢购他们能生产的所有供应。 但我认为风险已经计入市值(MC)，超大规模云服务商的需求加上 $NVDA 资助生态系统可能是最大的顺风+信号。 如果他们能执行到位，这多少让我想起 $RKLB 的“中子星”火箭。如果完美执行，我看到10倍的空间。如果不能，那就是我为上行空间承担的风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
The base case I’ve seen from $AAOI short sellers was that the $250m ATM doesn’t cover the capacity ramp and they needed $50m-$278m more (which is pennies given scale) The main argument is always around execution and potential headwinds: - whether they can reshore Taiwan assembly to US - scale up laser capacity so they don’t need to use $COHR here and there - executing on manufacturing expansion. - whether there’s margin compression from Chinese players - cpo arrival ( $GOOGL + $AVGO confirmed its way out) I don’t see it being a customer concentration problem since every hyperscaler from $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are trying to buy up any supply they can make. But I see the risk being priced into MC already and hyperscaler demand + $NVDA funding the ecosystem is probably the biggest tailwind + signal. It sorta does gives me $RKLB neutron vibes if they can execute. And if they can flawlessly I see it being a 10x. And if they don’t, that’s the risk I’m taking for the upside.
-
澄清博通观点，认为其表态利好AAOI。
我想你误解了，$AVGO 表示共封装光学(CPO)仍处于早期阶段。这与光子学/光收发器整体市场是不同的。他表示可插拔光模块和铜缆将继续主导市场。这一表态以及 $GOOGL 在另一份分析师报告中拒绝 CPO，对 $AAOI 来说是非常看涨的信号。
原推 ↗英文原文
Think you misunderstood, $AVGO said CPO was early. That’s different than photonics/optical transceivers as a whole. He said pluggable optical and copper will continue to dominate the market. This statement and $GOOGL rejecting CPO from the other analyst note is incredibly bullish for $AAOI.
-
看好AAOI当前估值，若Q2指引向好有望重估至470亿，建议定投。
感觉目前 $120-150亿 的市值(Market Cap)是一个不错的短期风险调整后价值。如果有关于其 2027 年第二季度(Q2 2027)预测的更多积极信号，估值应该会重新定价至 $470亿 左右（当然需要关注共封装光学(CPO)等领域的竞争格局，但 $GOOGL 和 $AVGO 已经证实该领域前景广阔）。鉴于 $AAOI 的高波动性，如果出现更好的入场点我并不意外，但定投(Dollar Cost Averaging)也不会错。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feels like $12-15B MC is a good near term risk adjusted value right now. And if there’s more positive signals toward their q2 2027 projections, should get repriced toward that $47B mark (of course need to monitor the landscape with cpo and others but $GOOGL and $AVGO helped confirm it’s way out) Given the high volatility with $AAOI would not be surprised if there’s better entry points but cost averaging can’t hurt.
-
指出市场看重AAOI远期增长预期，非价值投资标的。
@jamesonmarkets 你难道没意识到，市场对于像 $AAOI 这样的高增长公司，看的是远期预测吗？尤其是在需要资本支出周期来建设 2027 年产能的时候。这不是一家价值投资类型的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jamesonmarkets You do realize markets look toward forward projections for hypergrowth companies like $AAOI? Especially when there’s a capex cycle to buildout capacity for 2027. This is not a value investing type company
-
对比 IREN 高稀释融资与 AAOI 高效产能扩张。
@pappu_yar11820 X 上的散户似乎都在买入 $IREN，其以 34 亿美元云 ARR 换取 60 亿美元的稀释性融资。反观 $AAOI，仅凭 2.5 亿美元 ATM 额度即可将德州激光产能翻三倍，并实现超大规模云厂商积压订单的 3.78 亿美元/月爬坡。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pappu_yar11820 Every retail on X seems to be buying $IREN that is diluting $6B for $3.4B cloud ARR. Then you have $AAOI with a tiny $250M ATM to triple laser capacity in Texas and hit the $378/M ramp that is backlogged by hyperscalers.
-
分析AAOI光子学护城河与SOTP估值，认为其上行空间值得执行风险。
感觉 $AAOI（市值75亿美元）是目前上行空间最大的 AI 交易之一？ 在光子学领域，许多机构错过了上游瓶颈环节 $AXTI，因此散户可以在其被定价前发现这些机会。 对于 $AAOI，有一条清晰的通往 470 亿美元+ 估值的路径： 经济护城河： > 激光晶圆厂、设计及组装 > 德克萨斯州的激光产能翻三倍 > 美国制造（部分组装在台湾，但将于 2027 年回流美国） 预测： > 2027 年第二季度每月营收 3.78 亿美元 > 指引毛利率 35-38% -> 第三季度毛利率 40% 需求： > 超大规模云服务商买断了 $AAOI / $LITE / $COHR 能生产的所有产能 如果他们实现 2027 年下半年的营收目标： 激光组件权重：20% × 18.9 倍（$LITE 估值倍数）= 3.78 倍 组装组件权重：80% × 8.5 倍（中际旭创/新易盛估值倍数）= 6.80 倍 $AAOI 的混合分部加总(SOTP) 估值倍数 = 10.58 倍远期销售额 如果他们实现预测，你仍然会得到 476 亿美元的市值。 这还不包括像 $MU 对比 SK 海力士那样赋予公司的“美国制造”溢价。 以及他们通过内部优化光模块(transceiver)供应链所获得的任何利润率扩张。 鉴于目前市值仅为 75 亿美元，我认为市场不会等到 2027 年第二季度才开始将其定价。 $AAOI 的上行空间值得承担执行风险吗？ 对我来说：是的，毫无疑问。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feels like $AAOI ($7.5B MC) is one of the highest upside AI trades right now? With photonics lot of institutions miss upstream bottlenecks $AXTI, so retail can spot them before they get priced in. With AAOI, there’s a clear path to a $47B+ valuation from: Economic moat: > laser fab, the design, and the assembly > tripling laser capacity in Texas > made in America (some assembly in Taiwan but reshoring that to US in 2027) Projections: > $378m revenue per month in q2 2027 > guided 35-38% gross margins -> q3 40% gross margins Demand: > Hyperscalers buying out any capacity $AAOI / $LITE / $COHR can make If they hit their 2027 H2 revenue target: Laser Component Weight: 20% × 18.9x ( $LITE est. multiple) = 3.78x · Assembly Component Weight: 80% × 8.5x (Innolight/Eoptolink Multiple) = 6.80x · $AAOI’s Blended SOTP Multiple = 10.58x Forward Sales You still get a $47.6B Market Cap if they deliver projections. This is not including any potential Made in America premiums that get assigned to companies like $MU vs. SK Hynix. And any margin expansion they get from optimizing the transceiver supply chain in-house. Given the marketcap is a small $7.5B now, I don’t think markets will wait for q2 2027 to start pricing it in. Is the $AAOI upside worth the execution risk? To me: Yes, Unequivocally.
-
认为若AAOI能顺利执行，其估值极具吸引力。
@Blinklebloop 同意，如果 $AAOI 能够顺利执行（execute），其估值看起来极其便宜。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blinklebloop Agreed, $AAOI looks extremely cheap if they can execute.
-
AAOI获三大云厂商包销产能，营收有望超越LITE，引发市场炒作。
如果 $AAOI 披露有三家超大规模云服务商客户（可能是 $META 或 $ORCL）加上 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 正在买断其所有产能。然后他们从 $COHR 激光器到设计再到组装实现端到端全流程。接着他们预测营收将超越另一家市值 550 亿美元的美国公司 $LITE。嗯，难怪会有这么多炒作。
原推 ↗英文原文
If $AAOI reveals there's three hyperscaler clients (maybe $META or $ORCL) + $AMZN + $MSFT) buying out any capacity they make. Then they do end-to-end from $COHR lasers to design to assembly... And then they're projecting revenue to leapfrog the other $55B US company in $LITE. Yeah, makes sense there's a lot of hype.
-
$AAOI 具备全产业链美国制造优势，有望超越同行营收，高确信度看涨。
$AAOI 令人极度兴奋。 如果他们能执行到位，明年市值有望从 70 亿美元重估至 350 亿美元甚至更高。 我将简要概述行业格局及原因： 组装环节： -> 从 $LITE / $COHR 采购激光器 -> 根据蓝图组装 -> 然后销售光收发器(transceiver)。 $FN (亚洲) -> 市值约 200 亿美元。 预计营收约 40 亿美元，毛利率 12.4%。 设计 + 组装： - 从 $LITE / $COHR 采购激光器，设计 800G 和 1.6T 产品 -> 然后销售光收发器。 中际旭创 (中国)：市值约 840 亿美元 毛利率约 46.2%，预计营收约 110 亿美元 新易盛 (中国)：市值约 500 亿美元： 预计营收约 53 亿美元 激光器： - 制造激光器出售给中际旭创 + 新易盛，或制造激光器 + 设计后交给 $FN 组装。 $LITE，市值 550 亿美元： 2026 财年预估营收约 29.1 亿美元（~40% 毛利率） （他们也做激光器以外的业务，例如 $LITE 通过 Cloudlite 进行设计 -> $FN 根据蓝图组装，但并非端到端全流程）。 （$COHR 和 $AVGO 也这样做） _ _ _ _ _ _ 整个供应链（激光芯片、设计和组装） $AAOI 市值 75 亿美元： 2027 年中点预估年化经常性收入 (ARR) 约 45 亿美元（40% 毛利率） - $AAOI 制造激光器（像 $LITE），从零开始设计（像中际旭创），然后像 $FN 一样组装： -> $AAOI 内部完成 $LITE / $COHR 的激光器制造 -> $AAOI 完成中际旭创/新易盛的光收发器设计。 -> $AAOI 完成 $FN 的组装。 这实现了全环节的利润率扩张/优化。 最棒的是，他们预计将超越 $LITE 2026 财年预估的约 29.1 亿美元营收... 通过：2027 年中点实现约 45 亿美元 ARR 当你看到 $AAOI 的 75 亿美元市值。 再看光电子供应链的每个部分，从市值 550 亿美元的 $LITE 到市值 550 亿美元的新易盛。 任何人都能看到如果执行到位，其原始、纯粹的上涨空间。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真切地认为这很容易在明年实现 3 倍增长。 英伟达资助了 $COHR，后者在马来西亚制造 800G/1.6T 产品。 $LITE 使用泰国的 $FN 进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造设施。 我会不断强调这一点，但 Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 是唯一纯正的美国制造光收发器标的。 再次强调，两家“美国”光电子公司将业务外包到亚洲，而 $AAOI 花了多年时间在德克萨斯州建立产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以建立美国版本，以隔离其最关键供应链的地缘政治风险。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链布局，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）2026 财年预估约 29.1 亿美元 $AAOI（71 亿美元市值）2027 年下半年：43.5 亿美元 ARR。 如果管理层执行到位，$AAOI 实际上将超越 Lite 2026 年的营收预测（且毛利率约 40%）。 再说一次。$AAOI（70 亿美元市值）如果达成预测，将超越 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）整个 2026 年的营收预测。 亚洲的 $FN，2026 年预测实际上与 AAOI 完全相同。 ~43.9 亿美元营收，毛利率 12.4%。市值 200 亿美元（且毛利率低得多） 即使 $AAOI 只达成目标的 70%，其估值也很可能大幅重估，远超当前市值。 简而言之：在这些价位很难看到 $AAOI 的下行风险，尤其是 3-4 家超大规模云厂商（可能是 $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）希望购买其未来几年的所有产能。且 $GOOGL 不采用共封装光学(CPO) 路线。 $AAOI 在增长方面超越 $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE 等，并受益于光电子主题而非铜缆（前两者）。 只要管理层交付成果，$AAOI 仍然是 1 年期高确信度的非对称性机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting. There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute. I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why: Assembly: -> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints -> then sell the transceiver. $FN (Asia) -> ~$20B MC. ~$4B projected revenue, 12.4% gross margins. Design + Assembly: - Buys lasers from $LITE / $COHR, design the 800G and 1.6T -> then sells the transceiver. Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~ 46.2% gross margins, ~$11B projected revenue Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B projected revenue Lasers: - Creates the Lasers to sell to Innolight + Eoptolink or creates the lasers + design to give to $FN to assemble for them/. $LITE, $55B MC: FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B (~40% margin) (they also do more than lasers, eg. $LITE with Cloudlite does design -> $FN to assemble based on blueprints too, but not the entire process end-to-end). ( $COHR and $AVGO do this too) _ _ _ _ _ _ Entire supply chain (laser chips, design, and assembly) $AAOI $7.5B MC: Midpoint 2027 est. ~4.5B ARR (40% margin) - $AAOI makes the laser (like $LITE), designs it from ground up (like Innolight), then assembles it like ( $FN ): And it's primarily made in the USA. -> $AAOI does the $LITE / $COHR lasers in-house -> $AAOI does Innolight/Eoptolink transceiver design. -> $AAOI does $FN's assembly. This is possible margin expansion/optimization across the board. Best of all they're projected to leapfrogging $LITE's FY2026 projected ~$2.91B revenue... By doing: ~4.5B ARR mid-year 2027 When you look at $AAOI's $7.5B Marketcap. And you look at each part of the photonics supply chain from $LITE at $55B to Eoptolink at $55B. Anyone can see the raw, unadulterated upside if they execute.
-
AAOI短期因市值小占优，COHR等长期更具防御性。
@SkiIIls 我认为未来一年 $AAOI 的表现将更优，仅因其市值较小且在其他光学公司实现技术跨越。$COHR、$AXTI、$LITE 在长期来看更具防御性。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SkiIIls No over the next year I think $AAOI will outperform just due to its small MC size + leapfrogging the other optical companies. $COHR, $AXTI, $LITE are much more defensible long term.
-
看好光子学趋势，建议同时买入AAOI和AXTI。
光子学是未来几年人工智能领域的新范式转变。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 都为所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）供货，并处于这一浪潮的前沿（尽管市值非常小）。 我认为这两家公司的股价尚未充分反映其价值。既然可以两只都持有来拉动我的雪橇，何必在两只“哈士奇”之间做选择呢？
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is the new paradigm shift for AI over the next few years. Both $AAOI and $AXTI supply to all the hyperscalers and are the forefront of it (while being really small in marketcap). Don't think either of them are priced in yet. Why should I choose between individual Huskeys when I can have both carrying my sled?
-
AAOI瓶颈在产能而非需求，扩产资金规模合理。
@pablocuellar_3 如果三大超大规模云服务商表示会购买你能生产的所有光收发器(transceivers)，那么$AAOI的问题并非需求不足，而是其产能扩张(capacity buildout)的规模。考虑到资金用途（而非像$GME或$POET那样囤积），2.5亿美元简直是九牛一毛。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pablocuellar_3 If 3 hyperscalers say they will buy any transceivers you can possibly ever make. It's not really a demand problem with $AAOI, just how much they can capacity they can buildout. $250m is pennies considering it's used for that reason (and not just hoarding like $GME or $POET).
-
AAOI获三大云厂商抢购产能，预期已部分定价，风险在于执行。
我去年在$AAOI股价约$28时便已建仓，至今涨幅已达3倍。起初我对它并没有很高的确信度，只是认为鉴于“美国制造”供应链优势及当时超大规模云服务商的资格认证，它具备潜力。但管理层近期的指引最终让我下定决心，因此我在当前价位加仓。拥有三家超大规模云服务商（可能是$GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT）抢购其所有产能，这是极其看涨的信号。尤其是当它们预测2027年下半年月收入将达到3.78亿美元时。市场是前瞻性的，所以我认为这一预期现在已开始被定价。唯一的变数是执行能力，但这正是投资大多数公司所必须承担的风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was actually in $AAOI since $28-ish last year, so it's 3x'd since then. But didn't really have high conviction in it, just thought it had potential given Made in America supply chains + hyperscaler qualification at the time. But management projections recently sealed the deal, so I ended up buying more around these levels. Having 3 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, buying up any supply you can make is incredibly bullish. Especially when they're projecting $378M a month revenue round H2 2027. Markets are forward looking so I think it started to get priced in now. Only uncertainty is execution, but that's the risk you're taking with majority of companies.
-
看好$AAOI美国制造优势，认为其营收将超越同行且下行风险小。
高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真心认为这明年很容易翻3倍。 英伟达资助了$COHR，后者在马来西亚进行800G/1.6T的制造。 $LITE在泰国使用FN进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造工厂。 我会一直强调这一点，但Applied Optoelectronics是唯一纯正的“美国制造”光收发器标的。 再次重申，两家“美国”光通信公司将业务外包到了亚洲，而$AAOI则花了多年时间在德克萨斯州建设产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了$COHR和$LITE以建立美国版本，旨在将其最关键的供应链与地缘政治风险隔离。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链布局，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（市值550亿美元）2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元。 $AAOI（市值71亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年化经常性收入(ARR)。 如果管理层执行到位（且拥有约40%的毛利率），$AAOI实际上将超越$LITE 2026财年的预测。 再说一次。如果$AAOI实现其预测，它将超越$LITE（市值550亿美元）整个2026年的营收预测。 亚洲的$FN，2026年预测实际上与AAOI完全相同。 营收约43.9亿美元，毛利率12.4%。且其市值为200亿美元（毛利率低得多）。 即使$AAOI只达到目标的70%，其估值重估很可能远超当前市值。 总结：在这些价位上，$AAOI很难看到下行风险，尤其是3-4家超大规模云厂商（可能是$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN）希望购买其未来数年的所有产能。且$GOOGL不采用共封装光学(CPO)路线。 $AAOI在增长方面超越了$CRDO、$ALAB、$LITE等，并受益于光子学主题相对于铜缆（前两者）的优势。 只要管理层兑现承诺，$AAOI仍是一个非对称的1年高确信度标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
High conviction long: $AAOI. I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year. Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T. $LITE uses FN in Thailand for volume production, and has it's own manufacturing in Thailand. I will keep hammering this home but Applied Optoelectronics is only pure Made in America, optical transceiver play. Again, the two "American" optical companies outsourced it to Asia, while $AAOI spent the years building up capacity and fabs in Texas. Nvidia funded both $COHR and $LITE just now to build out a US-version to insulate its most critical supply chain from geopolitical risks. But guess who already has the supply chain setup and is years ahead in that regard? $AAOI. $LITE ($55B) FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($7.1B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. $AAOI will actually leapfrong Lite FY 2026 projections if management executes (and with ~40% gross margins). Once again. $AAOI ($7B) will leapfrog $LITE ($55B MC) entire 2026 revenue projections if they deliver their projections. $FN over in Asia, 2026 projections are actually around the exact same as AAOI. ~4.39B revenue off 12.4% gross margins. And it's a $20B MC (with much lower margins) Even if $AAOI hits 70% of their target, it's likely to be heavily re-rated way past it's current marketcap. TLDR: Hard to see downside with $AAOI at these levels, especially with 3-4 hyperscalers (likely $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN) wanting to buy up any capacity it can make for years out. And with $GOOGL not going the CPO route. $AAOI leapfrogs $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE, and others in growth + benefits from photonics theme vs. copper (from the first two). $AAOI remains an asymmetrical 1Y high conviction as long as management delivers.
-
博主回顾并炫耀其 $EWY 隐含波动率套利交易的成功表现。
天哪……这笔 $EWY 隐含波动率(IV)交易有多神？ 自3周前发帖以来，韩国指数波动率已从32%飙升至51%。 如果 $AAOI 翻倍我也不会太惊讶，但这笔对韩国波动率的押注简直传奇。 https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy… How goated was this $EWY IV trade? The South Korean Index volatility went from 32% -> 51% since posting 3 weeks ago. I’m not as impressed if $AAOI doubles but this call on South Korea’s volatility was legendary. https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
-
博主反驳网友，指出相关公司市值巨大，个人无法使其股价翻倍。
@fullthr0tll3 我的意思是 $LITE 是一家市值 550 亿美元的公司？Macronix/Nittobo 是市值 60 多亿美元的公司。 $AAOI 是一家市值 70 亿美元的公司，股价从我发帖时的约 28 美元涨到了 100 美元。$AXTI 现在是一家市值约 24 亿美元的公司，从我发帖时的约 5 亿美元涨上来的。 我不认为 X 上的一个随机用户能对这些公司产生足够大的影响，让它们全部翻倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@fullthr0tll3 I mean $LITE is a $55B company? Macronix/Nittobo are $6B+ company. $AAOI is a $7B company/$100-share from ~$28 when I posted. $AXTI is now a ~$2.4B company from ~$500m when I posted. I don’t think a random person on X can affect these companies enough to make them all double.
-
博主感叹近期多只AI光模块股票短期暴涨100%+的现象。
嗯……这大概是继 $AXTI 以来最快的一次 100%+ 反弹吧？ 感觉我周围的一切，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE，都在短时间内不断上涨 100%+。 有人也遭受这种“痛苦”吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
Well… this was probably the fastest 100%+ rally since $AXTI? Feels like everything around me keeps going up 100%+ in short periods of time from $AAOI to $LITE. Anyone suffering from this problem? https://t.co/ao8g3cey0t
-
看好AAOI长期前景，认为IQE风险高但已翻倍。
@Mellokhai 只要管理层高管能达成其业绩指引，我对 $AAOI 的长期前景非常有信心。 $IQE 更像是一个高风险的“彩票型”机会，存在债务/重组等大量风险，结果难料。不过很高兴自从我提及它以来，股价已经翻倍了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Mellokhai Very confident about $AAOI long term as long as management executives and hits their projections. $IQE more of a moonshot with a ton of risks with debt/restructuring, who knows. Glad it's doubled since I mentioned it though.
-
GOOGL弃用CPO利好可插拔光模块及上游供应链
$GOOGL 拒绝采用共封装光学(CPO) 对整个可插拔光模块生态系统而言是巨大的结构性利好。 大多数人忽略了今日 Needham 分析师关于 $LITE 上调目标价至 $850 的研报中的这一点： 主要受益者：$AAOI、$FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、光收发器公司。 次要受益者（外延晶圆）：$IQE、Landmark 第三级受益者（衬底）：$AXTI、住友( Sumitomo) 降级（CPO）：Soitec 引用：“LITE 看到了一个意外的额外利好，其主要的收发器模块客户（Google）目前在其 TPU 架构中暂无采用 CPO 的计划。”
原推 ↗英文原文
$GOOGL rejecting CPO is a massive structural win for the entire pluggable optics ecosystem. Most people missed this in the Needham analyst note on the $LITE $850 PT upgrade today: Large beneficiaries: $AAOI, $FN, Innolight, transceiver companies. Secondary beneficiaries (epiwafers): $IQE, Landmark Third Order Beneficiaries (substrate): $AXTI, Sumitomo Downgrade (CPO): Soitec Quote: "LITE sees an unexpected bonus that its primary transceiver module customer (Google) currently has no plans to adopt CPO in its TPU architecture from what we have seen."
-
光子学成AI新范式，机构抢配上游瓶颈，供应链迎重估。
两大光子学外延片晶圆厂： - $IQE（$LITE 的供应商）本周上涨 62.53% - Landmark 本周上涨 23.95%。 它们都正处于强劲上涨势头中。 两者今天迄今均上涨 7-9%。 市场可能正在定价由 $AAOI 财报发出的光收发器繁荣信号，以及 Nvidia 对 Coherent 和 Lumentum 的投资。 光子学是人工智能在可预见的未来中的新范式转变，机构投资者正积极重新配置到光子学供应链的上游瓶颈环节。 市场通常具有前瞻性，因此如果像 $AAOI 这样的公司预测一年后的年化经常性收入(ARR) 为 45 亿美元，那么 AAOI 及其整个供应链现在就会开始重新定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
The two largest photonics epiwafer fabs - $IQE ( $LITE supplier) is up 62.53% this week - Landmark is up 23.95% this week. And they’re both on a tear. Both are up 7-9% today so far. Markets are probably pricing in the optical transceiver boom signaled from $AAOI earnings and Nvidia’s investment into Coherent and Lumentum. Photonics is a new paradigm shift for AI for the foreseeable future and institutions are aggressively repositioning into upstream bottlenecks in the photonics supply chains. Markets are typically forward looking, so if companies like $AAOI project $4.5B ARR a year from now, then AAOI along with the entire supply chain will start to get repriced in now.
-
看好光子、存储、电力及国防板块，分享具体标的及轮动策略。
光子学、存储、电力和国防可能是目前势头最强的前3大板块。 其他如先进封装或散热等板块，恕我直言，你无法获得像前四大板块那样严重的瓶颈效应或回报。 $AAOI 和 $AXTI 是我最看好的两个光子学标的。 三星和 SK 海力士是存储领域的两大首选。 关于电力，我之前已经说过 $XLU，受益于降息+电网现代化+超大规模云厂商推理需求。 然后是国防，可能是 $LASR 等，因为伊朗冲突是最大的催化剂之一。（并持仓直到和平时期到来） 我通常轮动操作约30只股票，所以像 $RDDT 这样的股票我在做波段交易，而像 $RPI 这样我之前提过的股票，我只是作为低仓位的备用持仓，以防我的逻辑被证实正确。 其中很大一部分是在顺势而为。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics, Memory, Power, and Defense are probably the top 3 momentum sectors right now. There’s others like advanced packaging or thermal but you won’t get to the severe bottleneck or returns as top 4 imo. $AAOI and $AXTI are top two favorite photonic plays. Samsung and SK Hynix are top two memory plays. Power I’ve already said $XLU from rate cuts + grid modernization + hyperscaler inference. Then defense probably $LASR and others for a bit since the Iran conflict is one of the biggest catalysts. (And hanging around until there’s peacetime) I usually rotate around 30 or so stocks, so one others like $RDDT I’ve been swing trading and others I’ve mentioned in the past like $RPI I just hold on the side with less concentration in case my thesis turns out right. Large part of it is riding the momentum.
-
博主偏好投资美国本土光模块替代股以获取溢价。
谢谢！我喜欢与中国社区互动。关于中际旭创(Innolight)和新易盛(Eoptolink)，我认为它们是光子学领域的一流多头标的，尤其是随着光模块(transceiver)的繁荣。但如果它们不像$AXTI那样具有垄断地位，我个人更倾向于投资西方供应链的替代方案，如$AAOI。市场通常会给“美国制造”的股票赋予溢价，即使它们的收入/盈利能力不如前者。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! I love interacting with the Chinese community. As for Innolight and Eoptolink i think they’re top tier longs for photonics segment. Especially with the transceiver boom now. But if they’re not monopolies like $AXTI, I personally just prefer to invest in Western supply chain alternatives like $AAOI instead. The market usually assigns a premium to “Made in America” stocks, even if they don’t have as much revenue/profitability.
-
逢高加仓AXTI等AI瓶颈股，调仓先进封装至极端瓶颈环节。
两者皆是。自$AXTI是未来多年整个AI行业的瓶颈以来，我一直在逢高加仓，即便其市值仅24亿美元。 $AAOI可能还有很长的路要走，其2026年营收及2027年中期的增长已实现了对$LITE的跨越式超越，而估值仅为后者的十分之一。 我确实开仓了像$LITE供应商$IQE这样的新多头头寸。随后又新增了如定向能武器领域的$LASR等仓位。 我的持仓记忆确实很长，因为SK海力士明年的营业利润可能会超过其整个市值…… 然后我确实从一些先进封装概念股中调仓，转向了AI资本支出中极端的现有瓶颈环节。
原推 ↗英文原文
Both. Cost averaging up on $AXTI since it’s the bottleneck of the entire AI industry for many years to come, even at a small $2.4B MC. $AAOI probably has a long way to go, it leapfrogged $LITE 2026 revenue + growth midyear 2027 at 1/10th the valuation. I did enter new longs like $IQE as a $LITE supplier. And then been adding new positions like $LASR for energy directed weapons. Definitely long memory since SK Hynix might print more operating income than their entire marketcap by next year… Then I did rotate out of a few like some advanced packing names into extreme existing bottlenecks from ai capex
-
博主晒出501%收益，称持有了光子、存储及亚洲瓶颈环节的所有领涨股。
我碰巧持有了今年所有表现最好的个股： 从光子学领域的 $AXTI 和 $AAOI， 到存储领域的 $SNDK 和 SK 海力士， 再到亚洲瓶颈环节的 Nittobo、 Macronix 和 Unimicron。 所有持仓在两个月内均实现三位数回报。 年初至今收益率：501.38% 只是运气好吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year: From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics. To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory. To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks. All triple digit returns in 2 months. Year to Date: 501.38% Just lucky I guess?
-
博主回顾去年研究，庆幸精准预判英伟达投资及光模块股表现。
@invspoter 如果我能帮上忙，我很高兴！ 不过很高兴我去年在研究论文中精准预判了这一点。$NVDA 最终投资了 $LITE 和 $COHR。然后 $AAOI 今年也大幅上涨。https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
原推 ↗英文原文
@invspoter I'm happy if I was able to help! Glad I got this part spot on from my thesis last year though. $NVDA ended up investing in both of $LITE and $COHR. Then $AAOI ended up popping off this year. https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
-
光子学成AI新瓶颈，NVDA投资上游，AAOI等迎重估。
我去年确实抛出了一个光子学(CPO)的金矿。匿名者们，你们听了吗？ 从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，所有相关标的在过去两个月都上涨了2-3倍。 $LITE 最终涨幅超过100%。 甚至 $COHR 和 $IQE 也接近翻倍。 $AAOI 正处于超级反弹中，鉴于其45亿美元的营收预期，很可能继续走高。 现在 $NVDA 正在投资这些相同的光子学公司，从 $LITE（$IQE 的供应商以及 $AXTI 对 $LITE 的供应关系）到 $COHR。 光子学是下一个存储领域，像 $AAOI 这样的公司看起来像是下一个 $SNDK。 最重要的是，对于许多上游供应商来说，行情才刚刚开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year. Did you listen anon? Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI. $LITE ended up increasing 100%+. Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling. AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections. And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR. Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK. Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.
-
博主炫耀选股大幅跑赢大盘，部分持仓翻倍后回调。
@Investmnt_Eagle 哈哈，是的，我选的所有股票比如 $AAOI 和 $IQE 最近每天涨幅都在 20-40% 左右。$AXTI 和 $LITE 在本月翻倍后正在小憩调整。说实话，市场其他部分并没有玩得这么开心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle LOL yeah all my picks like $AAOI and $IQE are up like 20-40% a day recently. $AXTI, $LITE have been taking a tiny rest after doubling this month. Rest of the market not having as much of a fun time tbh.
-
光子学供应链相关个股近期走势强劲，全线上涨。
@anhecdote 随时欢迎！是的，我之前提到的整个光子学(Photonics)供应链，包括 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$IQE 和 $AAOI，走势都是一条直线向上的绿色阳线。
原推 ↗英文原文
@anhecdote Anytime! Yeah the entire photonics supply chain that I've mentioned from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $IQE, and $AAOI has been a straight green line up.
-
英伟达投资相干光，利好光子学供应链及相干光。
$NVDA 刚刚向 $COHR 投资 20 亿美元，用于先进激光器和光网络产品。这对 $AXTI（衬底供应商）、$AAOI 等其他光网络公司以及整个光子学供应链构成了极其强劲的利好。而最大的直接受益者无疑是 $COHR。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion into $COHR for advanced laser and optical networking products. This is an extremely bullish tailwind for $AXTI (substrate provider), other optical networking companies like $AAOI, and the entire photonics supply chain. And most of all the direct beneficiary is $COHR.
-
英伟达投资Lumentum，利好光子学供应链及上游供应商。
$NVDA 刚刚投资 20 亿美元支持 Lumentum 的研发及美国新建晶圆厂。这对 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI、$IQE 等光子学股票是巨大的顺风。$IQE 今日上涨 28% 更合理了，因为它是 $LITE 的已知供应商。而 $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。该合作聚焦硅光子学、光互连及封装集成，惠及整个光子学供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility. This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others. $IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. The collaboration targets silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and package integration, which flows through the entire photonics supply chain.
-
建议在AEHR和AAOI之间采取多元化配置策略。
@B38B37 如果你在 $AEHR 和 $AAOI 之间做选择，我是多元化(Diversification)的拥趸。多多益善。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 I’m a fan of diversification if you’re choosing between $AEHR and $AAOI. The more the merrier.
-
分享AXTI等个股早期布局逻辑及CPO前瞻。
$AXTI 和 $AAOI 可能还非常早期。$LITE 的定价已略有反映。$COHR 还有很长的路要走。 $IQE 处于非常早期的阶段，但由于重组带来的固有风险，我不建议其他人参与。我只是分享我建仓的逻辑，并沿途庆祝进展。 至于 2028 年的共封装光学(CPO)，明年有一套不同的标的供提前布局。
原推 ↗英文原文
Probably very early to $AXTI and $AAOI. $LITE slightly more priced in. $COHR has some way to go. $IQE is very early but I wouldn’t recommend it to people since it’s inherently risky due to restructuring. I’m just sharing why I entered the trade and celebrating along the way. Then for cpo in 2028 there’s a different set of picks for next year to frontrun.
-
光子学板块个股无视宏观风险持续大涨
看来 $IQE 也不关心伊朗战争？ 我核心光子学(Photonics)板块的选股 $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR 和 $AAOI 最近每天都呈垂直上涨态势，完全无视任何宏观因素。https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
原推 ↗英文原文
Apparently $IQE does not concern itself with the War in Iran either? My core photonics segment picks from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI have been just vertical green line up every day recently, despite any macro. https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W
-
预测某股将垂直整合，视AAOI为一年期交易。
@Blazedsin 是也不是。我猜测它最终可能会像 $SMCI 或 $SNDK 那样走向垂直整合，大部分营收增长将持续到 2027 年底。然后共封装光学(CPO) 就会推出。$AAOI 对我来说是一笔为期一年的交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blazedsin Yes and no. My guess is that it’s probably going to end up vertical like $SMCI or $SNDK with majority of revenue ramp coming in until late 2027. Then cpo comes out. $AAOI is a 1 year trade for me
-
AAOI营收预测惊人，高增长低估值，成光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 并不关心伊朗的战争局势。 这只光子学股票拥有令人惊讶的约 900% 营收增长爆发式预测： 到 2027 年中，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 将达到 45.3 亿美元，毛利率约为 40%。 再加上两位数方向性的串行接口 (SI) 供应短缺。 可能并不需要（担心这些宏观或供应链问题）。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI does not concern itself with a war in Iran. The photonics stock with surprise ~900% revenue growth blowout projections to: $4.53B ARR by mid-2027, off ~40% margins. Coupled with double digit directional SI stuck. Might not need to be. https://t.co/qKReNvBMYh
-
列举AI半导体供应链各环节代表公司及代码
@jahintanvir_ 大概包括这些： 内存 - $MU, 三星, SK海力士, 闪迪 晶圆代工, 封装 - $INTC, $TSM, $AMKR 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI 专用集成电路(ASICs) - $AVGO, $MRVL 连接 - $ALAB, $CRDO 电力/电网 - $XLU 数据中心 - $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF
原推 ↗英文原文
@jahintanvir_ Probably the likes of these: Memory - $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix, Sandisk Foundries, Packaging- $INTC, $TSM, $AMKR Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI ASICs - $AVGO, $MRVL Connectivity - $ALAB, $CRDO Power/Grid- $XLU Datacenters - $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF
-
AI光模块供不应求，AAOI具美国本土供应链优势。
- 即使所有人都生产 800G/1.6T 产品，供应依然不足。需求远超供应。 这并非三星/SK海力士/美光(Micron)的三巨头格局，但 $AAOI 可能是唯一来自美国本土供应链的企业，因为 $COHR 在马来西亚组装，而 $LITE 则在泰国($FN)及亚洲其他地区生产。 - 在他们的电话会议中，他们详细说明了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)希望购买其能生产的所有产品。这更多是关于产能爬坡(Production Ramp)，并进一步印证了第一点：全行业需求大于供应。 我认为我们不会看到产品泛滥，因为需求将在可预见的未来消化掉各家厂商的所有产能。此外，中国厂商面临类似存储领域 cmxt/YMTC 的出口管制风险的可能性也不为零。
原推 ↗英文原文
- even if everyone produces 800g/1.6T there’s not enough. Demand far outstrips supply. It’s not quite the trio Samsung/sk Hynix/micron but $AAOI is probably the only one from made in America supply chains since $COHR does assembly in Malaysia and $LITE -> $FN Thailand and other places in Asia. - in their call they detailed hyperscalers wanted to buy anything they can make. It’s moreso production ramp and just drives the first point home that demand > supply across the board. Don’t think we’ll see flooding bc demand will eat up anything the players can make for the foreseeable future. And nonzero chance there’s export controls like cmxt/YMTC from memory on Chinese players
-
分享$AAOI买入逻辑，看好执行落地后的巨大回报及有限下行风险。
我的首次买入价在20多美元高位到30多美元低位，所以差不多！我只记得超大规模云服务商的认证过程，并预期他们会像$ALAB那样发力。 对于$AAOI来说，关键在于执行落地，但如果他们成功了，投资回报率(ROI)将是巨大的。 即使他们错过预期40%，我认为从50亿美元市值这里下行空间也不大，所以我准备参与接下来一年的行情。
原推 ↗英文原文
My first buy was in the high 20s, low 30's so around the same! I just remember hyperscaler qualifcation and expected them to pull an $ALAB. Yeah name of the game is execution with $AAOI, but if they hit, the ROI is just enormous. I don't really see too much downside from $5B here even if they miss projections by 40%, so I'm in for the ride for the next year.
-
看好$AAOI十倍增长潜力，视其为光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 对我来说感觉是必须配置的共封装光学(CPO)敞口。 他们的财报简直像黑魔法一样神奇。 $LITE（市值500亿美元）：2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元 $AAOI（市值56亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 他们的增长预测在2026年实际上已经超越了 $LITE。 我没开玩笑。 $AAOI 的毛利率约为40%，$LITE 凭借光电路交换(OCS)垄断地位可能达到45%。 “长期毛利率目标约为40%。” 别误会，$LITE 是一只极佳的长线股，因为其在 $GOOGL TPU 和 Google 资本支出中占据8-12%的物料清单(BOM)份额... 但 $AAOI 的营收顶层增长接近去年营收的10倍，这简直不可思议。 如果你用草稿纸数学模型计算： “管理层预测，到2027年第二季度，每月光收发器营收潜力达3.78亿美元” ~ 43亿美元目标，40%毛利率（自产），17.2亿美元毛利润，也许~6亿美元资本支出/运营支出： 净利润 ~8.96亿美元。 远期市盈率（基于2027年净利润）：~6.4倍远期市盈率，对应约900%的同比增长。 而且如果你看光子学产能爬坡，预计向2030年呈指数级增长。 从他们的管理层电话会议来看，超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）很可能买断了所有可用的光收发器产能。 这让我想起早期的 $ALAB 或 $CRDO，所有超大规模云服务商都是他们的客户。 如果你考虑到像 $SNDK 的NAND闪存那样的价格涨幅： +15% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：14.1亿美元净利润 - （4.1倍远期市盈率） +30% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：19.2亿美元净利润 - （3.0倍远期市盈率） 这就是为什么我在 $AAOI 财报后如此兴奋。 甚至还没包括 $AAOI “美国制造”的光收发器供应链，这将使他们获得相对于 $FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、易普联(Eptolink)等海外厂商的溢价。 有点像 $INTC 对 $TSM 或 $MU 对 SK海力士的溢价。 如果他们的预测成真，且价格涨幅使光子学板块在800%+增长下达到3倍市盈率，回报率将是天文数字。 再次强调，这些是管理层预测，执行力才是关键。 无论如何，我将 $AAOI 作为我最大的光子学持仓之一，因为这看起来像黑魔法，也是下一个 $SNDK 的开端。 如果他们能实现预测，非零概率是我们在一年半后看到其达到 $LITE 500亿美元的估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI feels like must-have photonics exposure to me. Their earnings report is genuinely black magic. $LITE ($50B MC): FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($5.6B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. Their growth projections literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026. Not even kidding. Gross margins are ~40% for $AAOI, maybe 45% for $LITE with OCS monopoly. "-term objective of gross margins to around 40%," Don't get me wrong, $LITE is an amazing long due to 8-12% BOM of $GOOGL TPU and Google capex spend... But $AAOI top line growth for revenue is close to 10X revenue growth from last year's revenue, which is just insane. And if you go off napkin math modeling: "By Q2 2027, management forecasts monthly transceiver revenue potential of $378 million" ~ $4.30B target, 40% margin (in-house), $1.72B gross profit, maybe ~$600m capex/opex: Net income ~$896M. Forward P/E (on 2027 NI): ~6.4x forward p/e off ~900%-ish Y/Y growth. And if you look at photonics ramp, it's expected to increase exponentially toward 2030. From their management call hyperscalers likely ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN ) are buying out all available capacity for transceivers. Reminds me of a early $ALAB or $CRDO where all the hyperscalers are their customers. And if you get to likely price hikes like NAND for $SNDK: +15% ASP Price Hike: $1.41B net income - (4.1x forward p/e) +30% ASP Price Hike: $1.92B net income - (3.0x forward p/e) This is why I got so excited about $AAOI post-earnings. Not even including $AAOI "Made in America" transceiver supply chains that would give them a premium where $FN, Innolight, Eptolink, and others do theirs abroad. Kinda like $INTC to $TSM or $MU to SK Hynix premiums. The ROI for this is just astronomical if they hit their projections and price hikes give them a 3 p/e rate off 800%+ growth in photonics segments. Again, these are management projections, execution is the biggest the name of the game. Regardless, I'm making $AAOI one of my largest photonics positions because this looks like black magic and the beginning of the next $SNDK. There's a nonzero chance we might see this at a $50B $LITE valuation one and a half year from now if they can execute on their projections.
-
分析IQE债务风险与重组潜力，看好AAOI非对称收益并加仓。
$IQE 因债务问题本质上具有危险性。我只是说，作为 $LITE 的已知供应商以及超大规模云服务商光子学供应链的主要贡献者，他们坐拥产能金矿。如果他们能通过出售台湾业务成功进行债务重组，我不惊讶其估值重估（re-rating）达到 1000%。这取决于你的风险偏好。$AAOI 在当前水平具有纯粹的非对称上行空间，我是重度买家。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IQE is inherently dangerous because of debt. I'm just saying they're sitting on a gold mine of capacity as a known $LITE supplier and large contributor to the hyperscaler photonics supply chain. If they do manage to restructure by selling off their Taiwan business wouldn't be surprised if it got re-rated like 1000%. Depends on your risk appetite. $AAOI is pure asymmetrical upside at these levels, and I'm a heavy buyer.
-
推荐关注Oxford Instruments，其为COHR/AAOI提供刻蚀沉积设备。
@Investmnt_Eagle 可以研究一下 Oxford Instruments，他们是 $COHR 和 $AAOI 在刻蚀/沉积工艺方面的知名供应商。这与 $VECO/Axtron 这类公司所做的略有不同。许多更上游的公司（如 Vital）是私有的，或者我已经提到过了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle Could look into Oxford instruments, they're a known $COHR and $AAOI supplier for etch/deposition process. Slightly different than what $VECO/Axtron type are doing. Lot of the more upstream names like Vital are private or I've already mentioned.
-
AAOI财报揭示上游设备与材料瓶颈，IQE等上游厂商受益显著。
来自 $AAOI 财报的二阶效应： -> 对 MBE/MOCVD 反应堆的需求极度旺盛。 它们用于制造外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 这为“制造”环节释放了两个信号： - $IQE 坐拥一座绝对的“金矿” - 资本开支周期将惠及类似 $VECO ($18.5亿) 和 Aixtron ($AIXXF $37亿) 这样的设备商。 引用：3-4 家超大规模云服务商，可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT，对光收发器(transceivers)的需求已触顶。 -> 中际旭创(Innolight)、易普拓(Eptolink)、$COHR 等厂商可能也会经历一轮资本开支周期以满足需求。 这主要利好两家外延晶圆代工代工厂： -> $IQE ($1.75亿) ~100+ 台反应堆 -> 晶品半导体(Landmark) (~$36.8亿) ~27-30 台反应堆。 所以这大概就是为什么 $LITE 大量使用 $IQE，而 Landmark 营收屡创新高。$AAOI 则一直在建设其德州工厂的产能。 总结： 1. Aixtron 和 $VECO 受益于今年类似迷你版 $ASML 的资本开支周期。当 Aixtron 在2月指引中表示预计2026年“整体市场环境持续疲软”时，也许他们在低调隐藏实力(sandbagging)或订单尚未下达。话虽如此，我认为最佳敞口可能并非设备卖家。 2. $IQE 坐拥满足 $LITE 及其他超大规模云服务商对 InP 外延晶圆需求的产能金矿。他们只需成功重组，估值就能更像其台湾同行($36.5亿市值)。 3. $AAOI 的财报显示收发器制造商及其组装所需的组件/材料需求惊人，市场肯定尚未定价。 4. $AXTI 一如既往地成为所有环节的瓶颈，正如我去年所提到的。 名字越响亮(如 $LITE、$COHR)，交易可能越拥挤/已充分定价。 但当你向上游追溯时，还有大量未被市场定价的隐藏宝石，它们将从巨大的光子学扩张中受益。 这是投资者的新淘金热，但本质是瓶颈狩猎。
原推 ↗英文原文
Second order effects from $AAOI earnings: -> Extreme demand for MBE/MOCVD reactors. They're needed for epiwafers. This signals two things for "manufacturing": - $IQE is sitting on an absolute gold mine - capex cycle to ( $VECO $1.85B, Aixtron $AIXXF $3.7B) type players. Quote: 3-4 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT. demand maxed out for transceivers. -> Innolight, Eptolink, $COHR, and others will probably go through a capex cycle to meet demand too. This largely benefits both outsourced foundries for epiwafers: -> $IQE ($175M) ~100+ reactors -> Landmark (~$3.68B) ~27-30 reactors. So that's probably the reason why $LITE has been heavily using $IQE, and Landmark has been hitting record revenues. $AAOI's has been building capacity from their texas fab. TLDR: 1. Aixtron, $VECO benefits from mini $ASML style capex cycle this year. When Aixtron said 2026 "continued softness in overall market environment expected" from feb guidance, maybe they're sandbagging or orders havent come in yet. That being said, best exposure imo is probably not the machine sellers. 2. $IQE is sitting on a gold mine of capacity to meet demand across $LITE and others hyperscalers for inp epiwafers. They just need to restructure succesfully, to be rerated more like their $3.65B friend in Taiwan. 3. $AAOI earnings is just insane demand for both transceiver makers and the components/materials required to assemble them, definitely not priced in yet. 4. $AXTI as always happens to be the bottleneck of everything as I mentioned last year. The more well known the name is ( $LITE, $COHR ) the likely more crowded/priced-in. But when you go more upstream, there's a ton of hidden gems markets haven't priced in yet that benefit from the massive photonics ramp. It's the new gold rush for investors, but bottleneck hunting.
-
博主称赞对方在AAOI、GLD和XLU上的优异表现。
@pepemoonboy 你在 $AAOI、$GLD 和 $XLU 上表现太棒了（'cooked' 指做得极好/大赚）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy You cooked on $AAOI, $GLD, and $XLU
-
看好AAOI财报及美国优先属性，将其设为核心持仓。
$AAOI 的财报真的非常惊人！或者说，这甚至还是保守的说法！营收预计增长超过 900%，如果实现，市盈率将降至个位数。而且，市场尚未计入其向 2028 年迈进的进一步增长（产能爬坡）。因此，我将该股作为我的核心（主力）持仓！当然，也存在业务执行风险和股权稀释风险，但我认为其上行潜力值得追求。特别是其“美国优先”的企业属性，这一点非常重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI の決算は本当に凄かった！というか、それすら控えめな表現だよ！ 売上高は900%以上の増加予測で、もし達成できればPERは1桁台になる。しかも、2028年に向けてのさらなる成長（ランプアップ）はまだ織り込まれていないんだ。 だから、この銘柄を自分のコア（主力）銘柄にしたよ！当然、事業遂行リスクや株式の希薄化リスクもあるけど、それ以上にアップサイドを狙う価値があると思ったんだ。特に米国最優先の企業だっていうのが大きいね。
-
Siflower盈利源于建设周期，AAOI规模化后必盈利。
@siflower 的业绩是其建设阶段资本支出(capex)周期的结果。他们目前销售的产品已实现盈利。$AAOI 在规模化后肯定会实现盈利。
原推 ↗英文原文
@siflower earnings was a result of their capex cycle from buildout. theyre profitable on the products they sell. $AAOI will most definitely be profitable at scale.
-
估算AAOI远期市盈率仅6-8倍，认为其估值极具吸引力。
@MarkoTominic 如果 $AAOI 实现约 43 亿美元营收和 40% 毛利率，根据粗略估算，其远期市盈率(Forward P/E) 可能在 6.3-7.8 倍左右。当然，还需要更多时间进行建模验证。这就是为什么我说它看起来极其便宜。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MarkoTominic $AAOI forward p/e might sit around ~6.3-7.8x from some napkin math if they hit ~$4.3B revenue, 40% gross profit. But of course need some more time to do modeling. That's why I'm saying it's looks extremely cheap.
-
看好AAOI估值，计划加仓并预期涨价。
是的，我在这个价位买入，并尽可能增加对 $AAOI 的敞口。如果他们实现 2027 年中 43 亿美元 ARR*（年度经常性收入）的目标，即使考虑到短期 ATM（非稀释性融资），它也被低估了。这还没有计入涨价因素，而在超大规模云服务商试图为分配而建设的情况下，涨价是一个可能的场景。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes I'm buying at these levels and increasing my exposure as much as possible for $AAOI. If they hit their $4.3B ARR* (ARR should be added to post) 2027 mid-year target. It's undervalued, even factoring in short term ATMs. This is not factoring in price hikes either, which is a likely scenario is hyperscalers are trying to build for allocation.
-
$AAOI获三大超大规模客户订单，营收激增，基本面强劲。
$AAOI 看起来像是早期的 $SNDK。而且在未来一年，其市值很可能远超 55 亿美元。 在他们的财报电话会议上： - 3 家超大规模客户（可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT） - “他们希望购买我们能生产的所有 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器”——完全售罄，就像内存一样。 - 营收增长预测超过 900%，达到 43 亿美元，而当前市值仅为 55 亿美元。 光子学领域的需求史无前例，$AAOI 刚刚证实了这一点。 而且他们随时可以开始提价，将毛利率从 40% 进一步提高。当然，存在执行风险…… 但这是一个你应该关注基本面而非图表的例子。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI looks like an early $SNDK. And is likely going much higher than a $5.5B MC over the next year. On their earnings call: - 3 hyperscale customers (probably $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT) - "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6". - completely sold out, like memory. - 900%+ revenue growth forecast to $4.3B off $5.5B MC. There is unprecedented demand for photonics, and $AAOI just confirmed it. And they can always begin price hikes to increase gross margins from 40%. Of course there are execution risks... But this is one example where you look at fundamentals over chart.
-
超大规模客户抢购AAOI光模块，预计营收激增900%。
@xoRachelPitzel $AAOI 的涨幅可能会远超于此。他们有3家超大规模数据中心客户希望购买其能生产的所有800G/1.6T光收发器(transceiver)，预计年化经常性收入(ARR)将超过40亿美元，同比增长900%以上。“他们希望购买我们能为800G和1.6T生产的所有光收发器”。
原推 ↗英文原文
@xoRachelPitzel $AAOI is probably going a lot than this. They have 3 hyperscaler clients looking to buy all the 800G/1.6T transcievers they can produce with $4B+ ARR revenue foretasted off 900%+ y/y growth. "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6"
-
指出AAOI为最直接标的且营收预期大增，上游亦有受益者。
@PhotonCap 是的！最直接的标的就是 $AAOI，他们刚刚发布了类似 $SNDK 式的财报，预计营收增长10倍。 但当然，正如你提到的，上游也会有其他未被定价的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap Yes! The most direct play is $AAOI, they just dropped a $SNDK-style earnings projecting 10x revenue growth. But of course there's going to be other beneficiaries not priced in too upstream as you mentioned.
-
AAOI财报预示光子学新范式，资金或轮动至上游设备及材料供应商。
$AAOI 预计到 2027 年光收发器需求激增 10 倍，基于 $55 亿的市场规模 (MC)，实现 $43 亿的年经常性收入 (ARR)…… 这规模巨大。 $LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经拥挤，但。 我们可能会看到资金向上游轮动，例如： $ASML 类型的供应商： - Aixtron (ETR: AIXA)：在输入型金属有机化学气相沉积 (MOCVD) 领域占据约 75% 份额 - $VECO - MOCVD 和分子束外延 (MBE) 系统，可能是第二选择。 - Oxford Instruments：$AAOI 和 $COHR 的等离子刻蚀和沉积系统供应商 独立外延晶圆代工厂 (光子学领域的代工厂)： - $IQE：最大的外包化合物半导体外延晶圆制造商。基本上是光子学世界的 $TSM，但有很多传统业务的拖累。 - LandMark Optoelectronics：最直接、纯粹的光收发器单元增长标的 - IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462)：使用 MBE 而非 MOCVD 制造高性能磷化铟 (InP) 外延晶圆 原材料衬底供应商 (基础材料)： - $AXTI/ Sumitomo：大家现在都知道了 收发器产能扩张的预测令人震惊，而这仅仅是 2027 年的情况。 到 2028 年可能会呈指数级增长。 $AAOI 创纪录的财报标志着光子学新范式的开始，获得相关敞口是一个很好的主意。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI's 10x projected rev surge in optical transceiver demand by 2027 for $4.3B ARR off a $5.5B MC... Is enormous. $LITE and $COHR might be crowded, but. We'll likely see rotation upstream like: $ASML-type suppliers: - Aixtron (ETR: AIXA): ~75% share for inp MOCVD - $VECO - MOCVD and MBE (Molecular Beam Epitaxy) systems, probably second. - Oxford Instruments: Supplier to $AAOI and $COHR for plasma etch and deposition systems Merchant Epiwafer Fabs (Foundaries for photonics): - $IQE: largest outsourced compound semiconductor epiwafer manufacturer. Basically $TSM of photonics world but lot of legacy drag. - LandMark Optoelectronics: Most direct, pure-play for optical transceiver unit growth - IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462): MBE rather than MOCVD to create high-performance InP epiwafers Raw Substrate Suppliers (base materials): - $AXTI/ Sumitomo : everyone knows by now Transceiver ramp projections is staggering, and this is only 2027. It's likely exponentially increasing into 2028. $AAOI's record-breaking earnings signals the start of a new paradigm for photonics, it's a great idea to get exposure.
-
AI光模块板块交易尚不拥挤，$AAOI 仍有上行空间。
@yianisz 同意！但我认为目前交易拥挤度(crowded trade)尚未达到极点。大多数人持有的是 $LITE 和 $COHR 这类标的，而 $AAOI 才刚刚进入他们的视野。我认为仍有很大上行空间，但这当然取决于执行能力(execution)。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yianisz Agreed! But I don’t quite think it’s crowded quite yet. Most people are in names like $LITE and $COHR and $AAOI is just getting out on their radar. I think there’s a lot of room to go but certainly depends on execution.
-
指出AAOI空头比例高达16%，警告做空者将面临剧烈波动。
@CameronBoswell8 太棒了！顺便提一下，做空 $AAOI 的人将面临一场残酷的行情。其空头比例已升至16%的高位。https://t.co/pPmOxjMV6Y
原推 ↗英文原文
@CameronBoswell8 Nice! On a side note, the shorts are going to be in for a brutal ride on $AAOI. It’s really elevated at 16% https://t.co/pPmOxjMV6Y
-
澄清讨论标的为AAOI，并提及此前成功预判AXTI涨幅。
@FractalVeritas 这里讨论的是 $AAOI，不是 $AXTI。不过我确实在 $AXTI 过去两个月上涨3倍之前就指出过它。
原推 ↗英文原文
@FractalVeritas Talking about $AAOI in this, not $AXTI. But I did point out $AXTI before it went up 3x in the last two months.
-
AAOI若达标则极度低估，执行风险是主要障碍。
好吧！如果 $AAOI 达成其目标，该股票被极度低估。话虽如此，需要关注市场如何消化执行风险，这仍是主要障碍。相比之下，与2.5亿美元自动取款机(ATM)发行相关的稀释微不足道。
原推 ↗英文原文
D'accord ! Si $AAOI atteint ses objectifs, l'action est extrêmement sous-évaluée. Cela dit, il faudra surveiller comment les marchés intègrent le risque d'exécution, qui reste le principal frein. La dilution liée à l'ATM de 250 millions de dollars n'est pas grand-chose en comparaison.
-
AAOI具本土制造地缘溢价，长期价值被低估。
是的，$AAOI 是唯一一家在德克萨斯州 Sugar Land 组装 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器（Transceivers）的真正本土玩家。$COHR 的业务在马来西亚/越南，而 $LITE 使用 $FN 等代工厂。 如果其实现 45 亿美元年度经常性收入（ARR）/40% 利润率的预测，美国本土制造还将获得巨大的地缘政治溢价。 话虽如此： -> 执行风险始终存在 -> 2.5 亿美元的定向增发（ATM）悬顶确实影响短期股价定价。 但长期价值创造被低估了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah $AAOI is the only true domestic player assembling in Sugar Texas for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. $COHR does their stuff in Malaysia/Vietnam, and $LITE uses $FN and others. There's likely going to be a huge geopolitical premium for American domestic manufacturing on top if they hit their $4.5B ARR/40% margin projections. That being said: -> execution risk is always present -> $250m ATM overhang does impact short term stock pricing. But long term value creation is understated.
-
$AAOI若达预期市值或达250-300亿，核心持仓但存执行风险。
财报后，如果$AAOI 达成预期，明年市值有望从$50亿轻松跃升至$250亿-$300亿。它是少数“美国制造”（德克萨斯州Sugarland）的公司，对比竞争对手：$LITE（全球）、$COHR（全球）、$FN（泰国）、$AVGO（全球）、中际旭创（中国）和易飞扬（中国）。因此它可能像$INTC对比$TSM、$MU对比SK海力士那样获得“美国溢价”。但看营收：FY营收4.56亿美元，2027年ARR预计45.36亿美元（~900%+增长）。加上30%-40%的低端利润率预期及超大规模云厂商认证，这太疯狂了。虽有$2.5亿ATM增发，但相比预期只是九牛一毛。这部分极有趣：管理层称800G、1.6T模块的需求和产能到2027年中可能激增近10倍。这对$IQE、Landmark等外延晶圆(epiwafer)公司及更上游的$AXTI也是巨大顺风。$AAOI是2026-2027年的核心持仓，但始终存在交付执行的風險。$250-300亿市值预期听起来超现实，但如果达成$43.5亿ARR（900%+增长），光电子规模化在2028-2029年可能继续扩大，财报确实惊人。
原推 ↗英文原文
After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections. And they're one of the only "Made in America" (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of - $LITE (global) - $COHR (global) - $FN (Thai) - $AVGO (global) - Innolight (China), and Eoptolink (China). So they likely get that "America" premium like $INTC compared to $TSM and $MU compared to Sk Hynix. But from revenue: FY Revenue: $456 million 2027 ARR by : $4.536B (~900%+ growth). Off high 30's - low 40% projected margins + hyperscaler qualifications. This is wild. But there was a $250M ATM, but that's typically pennies compared to the projection. This part is extremely interesting: -> Management stated that demand and capacity for 800G, 1.6T modules could surge nearly 10x by mid-2027. This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE and Landmark and more upstream like $AXTI. $AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027, but there's always execution risks if they can deliver. $25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth (and photonics scale up is likely to continue even further into 2028-2029)
-
AAOI因纯美国制造获溢价，对比其他光模块厂商。
@Investmnt_Eagle $LITE, $COHR, 中际旭创(Innolight), $AVGO, 和 新易盛(Eoptolink)。 $AAOI 是少数纯“美国制造”的德州晶圆厂之一。因此它将获得溢价。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AVGO, and Eoptolink. $AAOI is one of the only pure "Made in America" texas fab. So it will get the premium.
-
计划大幅加仓AAOI，看好其光电子业务高增长与低估值。
@Pacheca12345 财报发布后，我可能会将 $AAOI 的持仓规模增加两倍。光电子业务年经常性收入(ARR)达45亿美元（通常享有类似 $LITE 的估值溢价），利润率约40%，市值55亿美元。再次强调，这只是前所未有的指引上调规模。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Pacheca12345 Probably tripling my $AAOI position size after earnings. 4.5B ARR for photonics(which usually has a premium like $LITE ), ~40% margins, $5.5B MC. Again idk, this is just unheard of guidance scale up.
-
盛赞AAOI光子学规模化进展，看好股价大幅上涨。
@crux_capital_ 我以前从未对财报如此印象深刻。 $AAOI 在光子学(Photonics)领域的规模化扩张简直令人难以置信。 股价可能会大幅走高。
原推 ↗英文原文
@crux_capital_ I don’t think I’ve been this impressed by earnings before. That photonics scale up on $AAOI is just crazy. Probably going much higher.
-
若纳入AAOI指引，股价将大幅上涨
@Meatusmax 呃，如果市场将 $AAOI 的预测纳入定价，股价肯定会大幅上涨。那份指引简直不可思议。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Meatusmax Uh if they price in $AAOI projections, definitely getting sent a lot higher. That guidance is insanity
-
$AAOI光模块收入预测惊人，规模扩张幅度远超同行。
天哪，$AAOI … 我只是把话说在前面，他们预计光模块(transceivers)的月收入将达到3.78亿美元。 而其市值(MC)仅为55亿美元。 这简直就是极端规模扩张(extreme scale up)的定义。 虽然利润率不同，但$AAOI的预测实际上将比$LITE下季度的指引高出40%： “鉴于近期客户咨询激增以及需求明显上升，我们认为到2027年年中，100G和400G收入约为9000万美元。800G收入约为2.17亿美元，1.6T收入约为7100万美元。总计，这代表了光模块产品3.78亿美元的月收入。” 这种预测简直荒谬绝伦，自$SNDK财报以来从未见过。
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy $AAOI … Just putting it out there they’re projecting $378 million in monthly revenue for transceivers. At a $5.5B MC. This is the definition of extreme scale up. Although margins are different, $AAOI projections would actually surpass $LITE next quarter guidance by 40%: "Given the recent surge in customer inquiries and apparent rising demand, we believe that by mid-2027, 100G and 400G revenue will be approximately $90 million. 800G revenue will be approximately $217 million and 1.6 terabit revenue will be approximately $71 million monthly. Altogether, this represents $378 million in monthly revenue for transceiver products." Absolutely unholy projections unseen since $SNDK earnings.
-
博主庆祝两个月前的光子学研究验证，相关个股获三位数回报。
我只是在庆祝我两个月前做的一些深度研究(DD)！ 看到 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $LITE 的股价都实现了三位数的回报，这种验证我最初关于光子学(photonics)论点的过程非常有趣。 显然不是在告诉其他人要建仓，只是分享一些更新。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m just celebrating some of the DD I did two months ago! Seeing it play out with stock prices from $AXTI, $AAOI, and $LITE all hitting triple digit returns is very fun to see (and helps validate my original thesis on photonics). Obviously not telling others to take positions, just sharing some updates.
-
光子学拥挤，转向小众瓶颈环节。
@yianisz 恭喜 $AAOI，去年没几个人提到它。最近光子学领域拥挤度很高，所以我一直在转向市场尚不了解的更小众的光子学瓶颈环节。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yianisz Congrats on $AAOI, not many people were mentioning it last year. There’s been a lot of crowding in photonics recently so I’ve been rotating into more niche photonics bottlenecks that markets don’t really know yet too.
-
定义光子学“四大天王”并指出IQE适合高风险组合，看好板块整体表现。
$AAOI 是另一家在最近两个月股价翻倍的 Photonics（光子学）公司！ 感觉从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI 的每一家光子学公司最近都在翻倍或翻三倍？ 我将这些光子学敞口标的称为“四大天王”： 1. $LITE（TPU 的高 BOM（物料清单）占比） 2. $AXTI（万物材料） 3. $COHR（供应链的重要组成部分） 4. $AAOI（美国制造） 其他如 $IQE，我最近也稍微加了一些仓位，主要用于风险偏好较高的组合（它是 $LITE 和其他公司的 Epiwafer（外延晶圆）代工厂），但其财务表现并不出色。 话虽如此，很高兴两个月后，这些名字中的许多都开始起飞了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is another photonics name that has just doubled in the last two months! Feels like every photonics company from $AXTI and $AAOI has been doubling or tripling recently? I’ve dubbed this the “Elite Four” for photonics exposure: 1. $LITE (High BOM of the TPU) 2. $AXTI (Materials for Eveything) 3. $COHR (huge part of supply chain) 4. $AAOI (made in America) Others like $IQE I’ve personally added recently slightly more for risk-on portfolios (epiwafer foundry for $LITE and others), but don’t have a great financial profile. That being said glad 2 months later, a lot of these names are taking off
-
博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
-
分享过往高收益交易经验，强调轮动策略，并列出当前看好的AI瓶颈板块。
去年我分享了我的1年回报率： 在我加入X之前就已达到630.44%。 外面有很多阴谋论者。 但我确实是一个不错的自由裁量交易员（Discretionary Trader）。 其中很大一部分归功于： > 抢跑减半（Front-running halving） > 在10多美元时买入 $RKLB > 在10多美元时买入 $HOOD > 交易总统提名催化剂 > 搭乘多次上涨浪潮。 大多数人不会轮动，而是全程持有一只股票。 诀窍是搭乘每一次上涨浪潮，如果盈利开始放缓/停止，就转向下一个，不要对某只股票产生过多依恋。 今年也是如此，只是不同的板块和催化剂。 （引用内容）： 年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分只是选对了板块，从Jane Street算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈多头方面，目前我最喜欢的是： 1. 存储 - 三星，SK海力士，$SNDK，$MU，$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE，$COHR，$AAOI，$AXTI，（可能还有Yamamura，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR，$ONTO，$CAMT，$KLIC，和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些。 但其中大多数如果不是全部，都在短时间内上涨了50-100%+，这放大了整体交易回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是轮动到资金流向和当前瓶颈处。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转交易。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点教训！
原推 ↗英文原文
Last year I shared my 1 year return: 630.44% before I even joined X. Lot of conspiracy theorists out there. But I do happen to be a decent discretionary trader. Large part of it was > front-running halving > buying $RKLB in the 10’s > buying $HOOD in the 10’s > catalyst trading Presidential nominations > riding multiple waves up. Majority of people don’t rotate and sit on a single stock the entire time. The trick is to ride every wave up and if earnings start to slow/stop, move on to the next and don’t get too attached to a stock. It’s the same thing with this year, just different sectors and catalysts.
-
分享412%收益来源，推荐存储、光子等瓶颈板块，强调顺势轮动。
年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分归功于选对了板块，从 Jane Street 算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈环节的多头持仓方面，目前我最看好： 1. 存储 - 三星、SK 海力士、$SNDK、$MU、$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI，（也许还有山形电机，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC 和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些标的。 但其中大多数甚至全部在短期内上涨了 50-100%+，这放大了交易的整体回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是：跟随资金流向和当前的瓶颈环节进行轮动。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转操作。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点经验！
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date: 412.72% Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck. In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite: 1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Yamamura too, but not to the same degree). 3. Power/Grid - $XLU. 4. Advanced Packaging Capex - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, and $FORM. I’ve talked about all of these before aside from maybe $KLIC? But most if not all are up like 50-100%+ in a short timeframe, which amplifies overall returns from trading. Best lesson I’ve learned this year was to rotate where the money flows and current bottlenecks. Rather than attempting contrarian turnaround plays in sectors like cybersecurity. I publish all my ideas for free too so hopefully people can take away a thing or two!
-
作者按战略价值排序光子学供应链个股，并分享个人仓位偏好。
$AXTI 是我的首选，仅因其在光子学(Photonics)供应链中的战略价值。$LITE 紧随其后，若展望两年后则严重被低估，但目前看来略显超买。$COHR 大概排第三，$AAOI 排第四，作为另一只潜力股(Moonshot)，其凭借 Maia 和 Trainium 的放量获得了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资质。话虽如此，我个人不喜欢在 $AXTI 这类小盘股上配置过高仓位，尽管 $COHR 排名第三，但我对其持仓比例最高。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is my favorite just because of their strategic value to the photonics supply chains. Otherwise $LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years. But as of now it looks a little overextended. Prob $COHR #3 and $AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualifications just for Maia and Trainium ramp. That being said don’t personally like high allocations in smaller stocks like $AXTI, highest might be in $COHR despite it being #3
-
建议通过投资AI股票及关注BOM支出（存储、光子学）来对冲失业风险。
看到人们因人工智能(AI)替代而失业，确实令人难过。现在人们唯一能做的就是顺势而为，否则就会被抛下。 对此最大的对冲手段是投资AI股票，并关注物料清单(BOM)支出。 最大的是存储芯片，如 $MU 或 $SNDK。从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的光子学(Photonics)组件在BOM中也占据相当比重。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah pretty sad to see people get laid off from AI displacement. So only thing people can do now is ride the wave or get left behind. Biggest hedge against this is AI equities and looking into BOM spend. Biggest is memory like $MU or $SNDK. Photonics from $LITE to $AAOI command a decent amount of BOM.
-
建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
-
持有CRDO因超跌，看好光子供应链相关个股。
@Frenchie_ 我持有 $CRDO，因为我认为跌至 95 美元是巨大的过度反应。 但我看好光子学(Photonics)供应链，比如 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 这类公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Frenchie_ I have $CRDO on there since I felt the selloff to $95 was a huge overreaction. But I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI type companies
-
超大规模云厂商AI资本支出激增，利好上游半导体供应链，建议坚守基本面做多。
市场正遭受AI资本支出(AI capex)冲击的洗礼。 这实质上是超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)与外国之间的一场AI军备竞赛。 2025年至2026年间，资本支出(capex)增长如下： $GOOGL：从910亿-930亿美元增至1750亿-1850亿美元 $AMZN：从1250亿美元增至约2000亿美元 $META：从720亿美元增至1150亿-1350亿美元 $MSFT：从1100亿美元增至1500亿美元 $TSLA：从85亿美元增至200亿美元以上 当谷歌表示其年度支出（用于数据中心、TPU、基础设施）从去年的920亿美元激增至1850亿美元时，这一规模是巨大的。 $AMZN等公司的资本支出预测涵盖机器人到太空领域，情况不一，但同一家内存公司和半导体公司实际上能从中双重受益。 市场可能不欣赏$GOOGL如此巨大的支出，但上游AI供应链 certainly 乐见其成。 尤其是那些最明显受益的公司，例如： 专用集成电路(ASICs)：$AVGO（谷歌TPU、Meta MTIA等） 内存：SK海力士、三星、美光 $TSM（没有台积电你造不出“上帝”） $NVDA（训练） 每个建设项目中都有隐藏的受益者（例如$MSFT带动的$AAOI，$MRVL带动的$POET，$GOOGL带动的$LITE）。但有时，像内存或$TSM这样显而易见的“傻瓜式”标的反而就是最好的选择。 判断AI交易是否持续的最大信号是超大规模云服务商的支出： 而他们刚刚彻底超出了所有预期。 在AI建设浪潮中保持做多，基本面比宏观环境和短期流动性冲击更重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets have been hit with an AI capex shock. This is effectively an AI arms race between hyperscalers and foreign nations. Between 2025 to 2026, capex has increased from: $GOOGL: $91B - $93B to $175B – $185B $AMZN: $125B to ~$200B $META: $72B to $115B-$135B $MSFT: $110B to $150B $TSLA: $8.5B to $20B+ When Google says they are spending $185 Billion in 1 year (on DCs, TPUs, infrastructure), from $92B the previous year, that is enormous. Capex projections like $AMZN are mixed from robotics to space, but the same memory companies and semiconductors actually benefit twice. Markets might not appreciate $GOOGL spending that much but AI supply chains upstream certainly do. Especially the most obvious ones that benefit from most such as: ASICs: $AVGO (Google TPUs, Meta MTIA, etc.) Memory: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron $TSM (You cannot build God without TSM) $NVDA (training) There's hidden beneficiaries in each buildout (eg. $AAOI with $MSFT to $POET with $MRVL, $LITE with $GOOGL). But sometimes, the braindead obvious plays like memory or $TSM are are just the best. The biggest signal of whether the AI trade continues is hyperscaler spending: And they just blew all expectations out of the room. Stay long in the AI buildout, fundamentals matter more than macro and short term liquidity shock.
-
发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
-
AAOI作为垂直整合玩家，受益于美国制造及云厂商扩张。
@yianisz 同意，$AAOI 是少数几家美国垂直整合玩家之一。显然，主要挑战在于实现规模化，但它极大地受益于“美国制造”的顺风——即 $MSFT、$AMZN 等超大规模云服务商的产能扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yianisz Agreed, $AAOI is one of the rare US vertical integration players. Obviously with this, main challenge is getting it to scale, but it benefits a lot from Made in America tailwinds -> $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler ramps.
-
日本InP出口管制或致光模块产能瓶颈，作者减持相关风险敞口。
我们正目睹市场的第三阶效应，$LITE、$AAOI 及光子学板块遭遇血洗，跌幅超 10%。 原因多重，包括 SanDisk 下跌 10%+ 引发的板块拖累及其他抛售。 但我的细微观点是：由于日本出口管制，整个日本供应链的磷化铟(InP)库存/产能可能耗尽，而这正是西方大规模光模块建设所必需的。 我不会将 $COHR 与其他光子学玩家混为一谈，但他们已面临产能紧张，且受住友、JX 影响，情况可能恶化。 这将导致 $LITE 等缺乏 InP 来为 $GOOGL TPU Ironwood 等生产光模块的公司产能受限。 然而，若出现以下情况，这种影响将被抵消，我们可能看到持续反弹： -> 下游如高带宽内存(HBM)的定价溢价抵消产品短缺。 -> 日本以某种方式解除 InP 出口禁令（不太可能）。 -> 若 $AXTI 在获得 1 亿美元融资翻倍产能后，能向西方供应商大规模交付衬底，事情将顺利进行。 总之，我想从供应链角度提供另一种视角，因为鲜有人评论这一点。 鉴于本周看到的出口管制风险及 $AXTI 的新垄断瓶颈，我个人已移除部分光模块敞口风险。但我不是空头，不会利用这一点。 我对整体板块极度看好，但对光子学玩家（是风险厌恶抛售延续还是反弹）的走势毫无头绪。
原推 ↗英文原文
We’re seeing third order effects in markets with $LITE, $AAOI, and photonics having a bloodbath, dropping 10%+. It’s multifaceted, with sector drop from Sandisk -10%+ and others selling off as well. But my nuance take is that the entire Japanese supply chain will likely run out of InP inventory/capacity from Japanese export controls, required for the western optical buildout at scale. I wouldn’t quite lump $COHR in with the other photonics players but while they’re already capacity strained, it’s likely going to get worse with Sumitomo, JX affected. This would capacity strain $LITE and others who would lack the inp to produce opticals for $GOOGL TPU Ironwood and others. However this would be offset and we might see a continued rally if -> pricing premium downstream like HBM would offset any product supply shortage. -> Japan manages to remove the export control InP ban in some way (unlikely) -> if $AXTI delivers the substrates at scale to western suppliers (after their $100m funding to double capacity), things will proceed. That being said just wanted to offer another perspective on the drop since I haven’t really seen anyone comment on this from the supply chain angle. I personally removed some optical exposure risk after seeing the supply chain vulnerability this week from export controls and the new monopolistic bottleneck by $AXTI. But I’m not a short seller so I wouldn’t take advantage of it. I’m extremely bullish on the overall segment, but no clue what’s going to happen (whether risk-off selloff continues or rebound) for photonics players.
-
住友受出口管制引发下游产能瓶颈，故减持光子股，COHR例外。
我不做空，也不想发布看空光学公司的帖子，但我短期卖出了其他光子学持仓，因为住友电工(Sumitomo)受到出口管制，因此通过二级效应，$LITE、$AAOI 等下游公司会出现产能问题。 $COHR 算是个奇怪的例外，不确定为什么他们被归入其余公司，因为他们自己生产晶圆。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don’t short sell + didn’t want to publish bear posts about optical companies but I sold my other photonic positions short term because Sumitomo got export controlled so by second order effect $LITE, $AAOI and others would have capacity issues downstream. $COHR is kinda the weird exception not sure why they got lumped in with the rest since they produce wafers themselves.
-
尽管微软下调预期，仍看好AAOI长期必然性，建议等待。
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI 与 $MSFT Maia 项目深度绑定，而微软刚刚大幅下调了预期（这就是为什么 $MRVL 今天跌了 4%）。 尽管如此，我依然非常看好它，因为这更多是必然趋势，只是存在执行层面的不确定性，只需等待一两年即可。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI is heavily tethered to $MSFT Maia and they just heavily lowered estimates (hence why $MRVL went down 4% today). I still really like it regardless since it’s more of an inevitability minus execution uncertainty, just need to wait it out for a year or two.
-
博主回复称多数持仓及存储股今日表现强劲，普涨。
@soulbiri1 大多数东西开局都不错，哈哈。$CRWV、$CIFR 和 $AAOI 均上涨超过 10%。$NBIS 上涨 7%，$SMCI 上涨 6%，$MRVL、$MSTR、$TSM 上涨 5%。你所有的存储(Storage)股票每天都上涨 8%。除了少数几只，到处一片绿色(上涨)。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Most things are off to a good start lol. $CRWV, $CIFR, to $AAOI both up over 10%. $NBIS up 7%, $SMCI up 6%, $MRVL, $MSTR, $TSM up 5%. All your memory stocks are up 8% every day. Green everywhere aside from a few
-
2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
原推 ↗英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
-
批评机构误报，认为忽略噪音后MRVL是稳健长线标的。
$POET 通过 Celestial 间接受益于 $MRVL。此外还有大量与 Maia 绑定的其他光子学玩家，如 $AAOI。 但时间线简直荒谬，让我很恼火： 12月8日：Benchmark 下调评级，声称“高度确信”Marvell 输掉了 Trainium 3/4 给 Alchip。 12月9日：股价下跌约10%，CEO 上 CNBC 称“我们没丢失任何业务”。 12月23日：Benchmark 悄悄收回说法。Marvell “保留份额”，Alchip 仅增加“额外设计支持”。 Benchmark 做出此类声明后又在压低股价后悄悄收回，简直不可思议。 The Information 也如法炮制，但他们本就因煽动性报道闻名。 如果你只看数据并忽略新闻报道的噪音，$MRVL 看起来是一个极其稳健的长线标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
$POET indirectly benefits from $MRVL through Celestial. Then there's tons of other photonic players tethered to Maia like $AAOI. The timeline is so stupid though, it makes me annoyed: Dec 8: Benchmark downgrades, claims "high conviction" Marvell lost Trainium 3/4 to Alchip Dec 9: Stock drops ~10%, CEO goes on CNBC saying "we didn't lose any business" Dec 23: Benchmark quietly walks it back. Marvell "retains a position," Alchip added for "additional design support" Just found it insane how Benchmark could make claims like that then silently walk it back after tanking the stock price. Then The Information does the same but they're already known for their sensational journalism. If you just look at the numbers and ignore the noise from news reporting then $MRVL looks like an extremely solid long.
-
解析AI供应链各环节标的风险收益特征，推荐TSM稳健、AXTI高弹性、NBIS高成长。
感谢关注！我来简单拆解一下：我看好金融科技(Fintech)和人工智能(AI)，这是我的两个主要成长型投资板块。像 $CRCL 这样的稳定币(Stablecoins)属于金融科技领域。至于 AI 领域，我专注于供应链投资： 新云厂商(Neoclouds) -> AI 顶层消费者/超大规模云提供商。$NBIS 是我的最爱。 顺着供应链往下，谁帮助制造 $NBIS 和 $IREN 购买的 GPU？ -> 来自 $NVDA 的 GPU，部分 $AMD，以及未来可能来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 的 ASIC。 谁帮助生产这些 GPU？ -> $TSM 谁帮助在数据中心扩展这些 GPU 集群？ -> $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 用于生产扩展 GPU 集群所需互连件的原材料是什么？ -> $AXTI 它们都主题性地搭乘 AI 资本支出(CapEx)浪潮，但敞口各不相同。 我通常不会说“1”，因为它们的风险特征不同。 如果必须为复利增长选择最安全的一个：$TSM 如果必须选择 6 个月内潜在上行空间最大的一个？$AXTI 可能因材料短缺而受益，但如果中国封锁出口也可能归零。 如果必须选择 2 年内最有可能实现 5-10 倍增长并成为超大规模云厂商的一个？$NBIS。但存在稀释风险，自动取款机(ATM)发行可能导致股价停滞数月，但从 70-90 亿 ARR 和 20% EBIT 的未来前景来看，长期非对称上行空间最大。 当然，如果 AI 资本支出浪潮放缓，它们都会下跌，因此分散投资于金融科技等其他板块是明智的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for following along! I'll just give you a breakdown: I like Fintech and AI, those are basically my two main growth investment baskets. Stablecoins like $CRCL are in the fintech domain. As for AI domain I am just supply chain investing: Neoclouds -> Top level consumer/hyperscaler cloud providers for AI. $NBIS is my favorite. Go down the supply chain, who helps manufacture the GPUs used that $NBIS and $IREN buy? -> GPUs from $NVDA, some $AMD, and maybe ASICs from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN down the road. Who helps create those GPUs -> $TSM Who helps scale up those GPU clusters in data centers? -> $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI What are those raw materials used to produce the interconnects to scale up those GPU clusters? -> $AXTI They're all ride the AI CapEx wave thematically, but the exposure is all different. I never typically never say "1" because they all have different risk-profiles. if I had to choose the safest one for just compounding: $TSM If I had to choose the one with the highest possible upside over 6 months? $AXTI from material shock, but it could also go to 0 if China blocks exports. If I had to choose the best chance to 5-10x and become a hyperscaler over 2 years? $NBIS. But there's risks from dilution, ATMs stalling out the stock for a few months, but highest asymmetrical upside over periods of time from 7-9B arr 20% ebit in the future But of course, if AI CapEx wave slows, then they all go down, which it's good to diversify in other segments like fintech.
-
梳理AI光子学及InP衬底供应链核心标的，涵盖从底层材料到芯片的全链条。
呃，根据我个人的研究，为了全面覆盖我看好的一切： 1. $AXTI 位于整个供应链的最底端，占据 1/3 的磷化铟(InP)衬底和 1/4 的磷化铟(InP)份额。AI 供应链竟然与这只市值 7 亿美元的股票紧密相连，这完全出乎意料。 2. $DOWA + 住友电气，用于在衬底和材料方面进行西方对冲。 3. $AAOI, $LITE 针对超大规模云服务商的芯片，一家服务于 $AMZN/$MSFT，另一家服务于其他客户但更侧重于 $TPU。 4. $MRVL + $AVGO 我认为这就足以捕捉光子学物料清单(BOM)的价值以及磷化铟(InP)供应冲击。 还有一些其他有趣的标的，比如 Landmark Opto，我正在关注。 $POET 没进这个名单，反正你可以通过 $MRVL 获得敞口，除非我漏掉了什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
Uhh, from my own personal research so far, to cover all grounds I’ve liked: 1. $AXTI at the very bottom of the entire supply chain + 1/3rd of InP substrates 1/4th of InP. Completely unheard of that AI supply chain is tethered to this $700m stock. 2. $DOWA + Sumitomo Electric for Western Hedge on substrate + materials. 3. $AAOI, $LITE for hyperscaler chips, one for $AMZN/ $MSFT, the other for everything but more levered to $TPU 4. $MRVL + $AVGO I think that’s kind of all you need to capture photonics BOM value + InP supply shock. There’s some other interesting ones like Landmark Opto that I’m looking at now. $POET didn’t quite make that list and you’d be getting exposure through $MRVL anyway, unless there’s something I missed
-
AI供应链瓶颈类似当年锂和HBM，衬底及关键组件面临短缺与估值难题。
同意，对于交易者而言，这应该是一个有趣的机会，就像2021年电动车兴起时的锂，或者当前SK海力士和美光的高带宽内存(HBM)，如果人们能早期识别瓶颈的话。 机会众多（$AAOI尽管获得新的超大规模客户订单，年初至今仅上涨2.9%。这与Maia/Tranium等超大规模客户的部署挂钩）。 $MRVL需求极度旺盛，但主要来自Maia在2026年第四季度至2027年的需求，年初至今下跌22%。$POET作为$MRVL扩产的间接受益者。 磷化铟(InP)衬底在整个供应链中普遍短缺。$GOOGL加速TPU部署，利好$LITE，以及$COHR的垂直整合+创纪录积压订单。 像$AXTI这样极其荒谬的玩家，市值仅7亿美元，却几乎是未来AI扩产的单点故障(SPOF)。真不知道该如何给这个估值，哈哈。 $COHR、$LITE和衬底供应商现在正触及产能极限。我们将看到这需要多长时间才能达到像内存那样的极端程度。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed, for traders, this should be an interesting opportunity like Lithium in 2021 when EVs came about or HBM currently with Sk Hynix and Micron if people recognized the bottlenecks early. Tons of opportunity ($AAOI only up 2.9% YTD despite new hyperscaler orders. Tied to hyperscaler deployments like Maia/Tranium). $MRVL with extreme demand but mainly in q4 2026, into 2027 from Maia, down 22% YTD. And $POET as an indirect beneficiary of $MRVL ramp too. Shortages throughout the entire supply chain with InP substrates. $GOOGL ramping up TPU which benefits $LITE and vertical integration + record backlog from $COHR Extremely absurd players like $AXTI with a $700m marketcap basically being the single point of failure for the future AI ramp. Not quite sure how you place a value on that lol. $COHR, $LITE and substrate providers are hitting the capacity limits now. We’ll see how much time it takes for his to go to the extremes like memory.
-
感谢博主分享关于光子学板块个股的见解。
@crux_capital_ 谢谢，我也很喜欢你关于 $LITE、$POET、$AAOI、$COHR、$MRVL 以及其他光子学(Photonics)参与者的帖子。
原推 ↗英文原文
@crux_capital_ Thanks, love your posts on $LITE, $POET $AAOI $COHR, $MRVL, and other photonic players too
-
因AI供应链瓶颈逻辑，做多光子股并提示AXTI地缘风险。
披露：我在光子学领域持有 $LITE、$AAOI 和 $AXTI 的头寸。 从我个人的思考过程来看，如果我观察到整个 AI 行业以及像 $LITE 和中际旭创(Innolight)这样的玩家，都被一家市值不足 6 亿美元（甚至低于一家尚未盈利的 LLM 初创公司）的企业所瓶颈制约，我会做多。 下行风险包括：如果中国希望限制 $AXTI 在美国市场，可能会改变其所有权稀释结构。
原推 ↗英文原文
Disclosure: I have positions in $LITE, $AAOI, and $AXTI in the photonics sector. From my own personal thought process, if I see the entire AI industry and players like $LITE and Innolight bottlenecked by some $600m company worth less than a new pre-revenue LLM startup, I’m long. There is downside risk including changing ownership dilution structures if China wants to restrict $AXTI in US markets.
-
看好LITE在ASIC及OCS中的核心地位，以及AAOI在Maia放量中的潜在机会。
@jvthed210725 $LITE 是个人最看好的标的，因为它在每一款 ASIC 中都是核心组件，且在类似 TPU 的光共封装(OCS)架构中，其物料清单(BOM)占比会显著提升。 $AAOI 与 Maia 和 Trainium 的放量呈杠杆关系。根据瑞银(UBS)及其他研究机构的报告，Maia 在 2026-2027 年有望实现百万级以上的出货量爬坡，因此这是一个被低估的潜在机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jvthed210725 $LITE is personally my favorite since it’s central to every ASIC + gets much higher BOM share with OCS architectures like TPU. $AAOI is levered Maia and Trainium ramp and we should get Maia 1M+ ramp 2026-2027 as per UBS note + other research firms, so it’s hidden opportunity
-
解析微软Maia 300供应链，指出AAOI和MRVL为光模块核心受益者。
个人研究：$MSFT Maia 300 供应链。 根据 $MRVL 的报告，瑞银(UBS)预计2027年前 Maia 出货量将超100万颗。 预计 Maia ASIC 量产将带来超180亿美元流向供应商。 资金流向如下： 1. $MRVL - 营收80-120亿美元（~30-40%利润率），作为主要受益者。他们设计数字底层架构（SerDes，互连），从 SK Hynix 购买 HBM4 内存，支付 TSMC 的 2nm 晶圆和 CoWoS 封装费用，并将成品模块卖给微软。 当 Maia 在2026年底至2027年初开始量产时，鉴于其带来的巨大营收，Marvell 可能会迎来大幅重估。 2. 光网络架构：约30亿至40亿美元 主要受益者：Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI)，Coherent ($COHR)，Innolight Maia 集群需要1:1或更高的光收发器与GPU比例。对于1.6T速度（Maia 300所需），每个节点的光学内容估计超过3,000美元（每个加速器约6个800G/1.6T模块）。 这里 AAOI 大获全胜：与市值700亿美元的 $MRVL 不同，$AAOI 是一家25亿美元的公司。即使只获得这块30亿美元蛋糕的20-30%（6-9亿美元），也将使其当前年化经常性收入(ARR)翻三倍，但具体份额取决于其德州磷化铟(InP)工厂的扩产情况（可能更多或更少）。 因此，Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) 和 Marvell 的光学 DSP 业务是隐形赢家，受益于连接这些巨型芯片所需的1.6T升级周期。 像 $TSM 这样的公司会增加30-40亿美元营收，但相对于其1000多亿美元的营收来说，这只是中等体量。（仅说明 TSM 体量之大） 硅基 BOM 拆解： 1. 计算逻辑 (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (设计), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. 内存 (估计 HBM4? (6-8层堆叠), 估计值) SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O 与缓存 Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. 先进封装 - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. 散热方案 - 微流道冷板 / TIM ($200-400) 6. 杂项 (大电流电感, 电容) ($150-$200) 硅基 BOM 总计：$7,860 - $10,550 这非常粗略，未涉及无源器件/基板/盖板 (Ibiden, Unimicron)，测试与组装 (Advantest, Teradyne) 等。 现在如果我们深入看光学 BOM 以及 $MSFT 在空心光纤和 OCS 方面的布局： DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh 引擎 (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) 激光源 (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) 收发器组装: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) 光纤布线: 空心光纤 / MPO ($MSFT) ($200 - $300) 光学 BOM 总计~$2,300 - $3,600~占系统总成本的25% 我们已经确立 $LITE 和 Innolight 是光子学的两大主要玩家（在 $NVDA 和所有超大规模云厂商 ASIC 中） 然而，$AAOI 的市值仅为 $MRVL 和 $LITE 的一小部分，作为小盘股，Maia 的机会对其股票更具变革性。 另需注意，富邦研究(Fubon Research)估计 Maia300 芯片将于2026年底开始生产，约30万至40万颗，2027年增至120万至150万颗，但我们仅采用瑞银的~100万颗数据。（因此实际爬坡可能更多） 但向1.6T的转变以及对空心光纤/OCS网络高功率激光器的特定需求是一个巨大的顺风。如果 AAOI 获得 Maia 光学 BOM 的一部分，他们到2027年仅从一个客户那里就能使 ARR 翻三倍或四倍（不包括 $AMZN）。 风险：主要风险是资格认证失败。如果他们的激光器未能通过微软严格的可靠性测试，他们可能会被 $LITE 一夜之间取代。 然而，Maia 300 的量产标志着超大规模云厂商 ASIC 交易的开始，关键供应商已就位。 从2026-2027年底这一特定 ASIC 中受益最大的公司？ 看起来是 $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM 和 SK Hynix。 警告：这是基于公开材料+深度研究+映射的推测性研究+建模。没有公开的新闻证实这些信息，不要将其视为事实。
原推 ↗英文原文
Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain. On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027. An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp. Here's where it goes: 1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing (SerDes, interconnects), buy the HBM4 memory from SK Hynix, pay TSMC for the 2nm wafers and CoWoS packaging, and sell the finished module to Microsoft. We'll likely see a large re-rating in Marvell when it comes time for Maia ramp late 2026, early 2027, especially given how much revenue this brings in. 2. The Optical Fabric: ~$3 Billion to $4 Billion Primary Beneficiaries: Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ), Coherent ( $COHR ), Innolight Maia clusters require a 1:1 or higher ratio of transceivers to GPUs. For 1.6T speeds (required for Maia 300), the optical content per node is estimated at $3,000+ (approx. 6x 800G/1.6T modules per accelerator). Here AAOI Wins Big: Unlike $MRVL (which is $70B), $AAOI is a $2.5B company. Capturing even 20-30% of this $3B pie ($600M-$900M) would triple + their current ARR, but the amount captured is dependent on their InP Texas Fab scaling (could be a lot more or less). So Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Marvell's optical DSP business are the silent winners, riding the 1.6T upgrade cycle required to interconnect these massive chips. Companies like $TSM gain another $3-4B revenue, but that's medium volume compared to their $100B+ revenue. (just speaking to how much of a giant TSM is) For the silicon BOM breakdown: 1. Compute Logic (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (Design), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. Memory (est. HBM4? (6-8 stacks), estimate). SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O & Cache Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. Advanced Packaging - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. Thermal Solution - Microfluidic Cold Plate / TIM ($200-400) 6. Misc (High-Current Inductors, Caps) ($150-$200) Total Silicon BOM: $7,860 - $10,550 This is really high level doesn't go into Passive/Substrate/Lid (Ibiden, Unimicron), Test & Assembly (Advantest, Teradyne), etc. Now if we look deeper at optical BOM and what $MSFT is doing with hollow core fiber and OCS: DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh Engine (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) Laser Source (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) Transceiver Assembly: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) Fiber Cabling: Hollow Core Fiber / MPO ( $MSFT) ($200 - $300) Total Optical BOM~$2,300 - $3,600~25% of Total System Cost We've established $LITE and Innolight as the two major players in photonics already (within $NVDA and every single hyperscaler ASIC) However, $AAOI MC is a fraction of $MRVL and $LITE as a microcap, making the Maia opportunity far more transformative for its stock. Someting also to note is Fubon Research est Maia300 chip is set to start prod in late 2026 with about 300,000 to 400,000 units, increasing to 1.2 to 1.5 million units in 2027, but we're just going with the ~1M figure from UBS. (so might ramp up more) But the shift to 1.6T and the specific requirement for high-power lasers for hollow-core/OCS networks is a big tailwind. If AAOI captures a portion Maia optical BOM, they triple or quadruple their ARR from one client alone by 2027 (not including $AMZN). Risk: The primary risk is qualification failure. If their lasers fail Microsoft’s rigorous reliability testing, they could be replaced by $LITE overnight. However, Maia 300 ramp signals the start of the hyperscaler ASIC trade and key suppliers are there. The companies that benefit the most from this specific ASIC late 2026-2027? Looks like $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM, and SK Hynix. Warning: This is speculative research + modeling given public materials + deep research + mapping. There is no public breakdown and news of this information, do not treat it as a fact.
-
$AAOI 作为 Trainium/Maia 杠杆标的，随微软 ASIC 量产预期重估。
呃，$AAOI 本质上只是 Trainium 和 Maia 的杠杆多头头寸，因为公开信息显示他们不像 $LITE 那样参与 TPU/Blackwell 业务。 Maia 已推迟至 2026 年，量产爬坡可能要到年底并延续至 2027 年。 特别是鉴于传闻 $AAOI 正与微软共同开发新架构，他们很可能会同步扩大规模。 总之，当这两款芯片启动时，我们可能会看到更多相关标的被重新评级。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都想要自己的 ASIC（专用集成电路），这似乎是大势所趋。但关键在于 $AAOI 方面的量产爬坡与执行能力。
原推 ↗英文原文
Uhh $AAOI is just a levered long in Trainium and Maia, since they’re not involved in TPU/Blackwell unlike $LITE from public info. Maia was pushed backed to 2026, with ramp up in likely EOY into 2027. Esp with rumors $AAOI co-developing by new architecture with Microsoft, they’ll likely scale up together. Anyway whenever those two kick into gear, we’ll likely see more things be re-rated. It seems more of an inevitability given every hyperscaler wants their on asic. But main thing is production ramp/execution on the $AAOI side.
-
InP成2026新瓶颈，市场重估AAOI与LITE在超大规模云ASIC中的价值。
$AAOI 自今日发布论点以来上涨 24%，$LITE 上涨 5%。 从物料清单(BOM)分析来看，LITE（市值 270 亿美元）因光路交换(OCS)技术而向 TPU Ironwood 倾斜，同时也受益于 NVDA 及所有专用集成电路(ASIC)。 AAOI（市值 25 亿美元）则主要受益于 MSFT MAIA 的量产爬坡和 Amazon Trainium。 磷化铟(InP)就像高带宽内存(HBM)一样，将成为 2026 年的瓶颈，因为它们是这些部署中激光器使用的基础材料。 类似于美光和 SK 海力士的内存瓶颈，市场注意力可能会转向 InP 晶圆厂，例如 $AAOI，它是美国少数几家此类工厂之一（还有 COHR, Macom）。 但相比之下，$LITE 由于 Google TPU 的成功（来自 Meta 和 Anthropic 的采购订单），今年迄今(YTD)已上涨 362%，而 $AAOI 今年迄今仅上涨 7%。 我们主要看到这种情况是因为散户或媒体对 $AMZN Trainium 或 $MSFT Maia 部署缺乏关注，这些部署预计将在 2026-2027 年大规模量产。 然而，由于每个超大规模云服务商都希望降低其自有云平台的推理成本，它们很可能都会成功。 如果我们看到其他超大规模云服务商采用 OCS 以实现 TPU 达到的优化性能，鉴于 $LITE 在该特定领域的垄断地位，预计其估值将比现在进一步提升。 然而，如果我们看到 $MSFT Maia 量产（鉴于 $AAOI 可能正在为他们开发新架构），以及 $AMZN Trainium 量产（40 亿美元权证 + 采购订单），预计 $AAOI 将重新估值。 光电子学和 InP 将成为像内存一样的新瓶颈。 我们可能会看到投资流向下游玩家，如 $COHR、中际旭创(Innolight)、$LITE，以及 2026 年针对特定超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的隐藏杠杆标的如 $AAOI 这一主题。 市场目前正在奖励 Google TPU 供应链，但可能错过了其他超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的量产机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today. From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs. AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium. InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the foundational materials used for lasers in these deployments. Similar to memory bottlenecks with Micron and SK Hynix, we’ll likely see attention drawn to InP fabs, such as $AAOI, which happens to be one of the sole ones in America (COHR,Macom) But compared to $LITE that is up 362% YTD due to the success of Google’s TPU (from Meta and Anthropic purchase orders), $AAOI is only up 7% YTD. We’re largely seeing this because there’s a lack of retail or media attention on the $AMZN Trainium or $MSFT Maia deployments, which are largely expected to ramp up in 2026-2027. However they’re all likely to succeed due to each hyperscaler wanting to lower costs of inference for their own cloud platform. If we see other hyperscalers adopt OCS for optimized performance that the TPU achieved, expect $LITE to re-rate more than they have now given their monopoly in that specific segment. However, if we see $MSFT Maia ramp up (given $AAOI is likely developing a new architecture for them), and $AMZN Trainium ramp up ($4B warrant + purchase orders), expect $AAOI to rerate. Photonics and InP will be the new bottleneck like memory. We’ll likely see investments pour down stream to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and hidden levered plays on specific hyperscaler ASICs like $AAOI as a theme in 2026. The market is currently rewarding the Google TPU supply chain but might be missing other hyperscaler ASIC ramps.
-
市场重估LITE在AI芯片中的关键角色，看好明年光子学板块机会。
并非如此！市场开始意识到 $LITE 在每一家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 部署以及 Blackwell 架构中的角色，查看物料清单(BOM)时，其用量相当惊人，尤其是在 TPU v7 中。 LITE 是光子学领域的领导者，但还有其他公司如 $AAOI，它们与微软 Maia 和亚马逊 Trainium（目前尚未有任何动静）紧密相关。 因此，明年光子学领域存在机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not really! Markets are starting to realize $LITE's role in every single hyperscaler ASIC deployment + blackwell and when you look at BOM, it's a whopping amount, especially in TPU v7. Lite is the photonics leader but many there's others like $AAOI, which are levered to MSFT Maia and AMZN Trainium (which hasn't moved at all yet). So opportunity in photonics is there next year.
-
分析LITE与AAOI在AI芯片供应链中的价值及2026年前景
是的，$LITE 的表现令人惊叹，看到它出现在每一款 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 部署中后更是如此。 然后，当你进行物料清单(BOM)分析并建模 TPU/GPU 部署时，它即使在历史高点(ATH)看起来也被低估了。 接着是 $AAOI，它与 LITE 类似，但更侧重于 AMZN | MSFT 的 ASIC。它是美国少数几家磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂之一，其扩张规模将取决于 Trainium 和 Maia 的表现。它的市值也只有 25 亿美元。 光子学/存储领域在 2026 年将会极其疯狂。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah $LITE is incredible after seeing how it's in every single ASIC + $NVDA blackwell deployments. Then once you do BOM analysis and model TPU/GPU deployments, it looks undervalued even at ATHs. Then there's $AAOI, which is similar to LITE but levered toward AMZN | MSFT ASICs. It's one of the only InP Fabs in US and will scale up depending on how Trainium and Maia do. It's a $2.5B MC too. Photonics/Memory is going to be extremely crazy in 2026.
-
$AAOI 是 $MSFT/$AMZN ASIC 扩产的高弹性隐藏宝石，具极高不对称收益。
在 $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创等公司中，我发现 $LITE 的不对称性（asymmetrical setup）最强，因为它是 Ironwood（含共封装光学(CPO)）、Blackwell 及其他超大规模客户专用集成电路(ASIC) 的核心。然而，$AAOI 是极致的超额收益（alpha）。尤其是作为 $AMZN Trainium 和 $MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产的对冲工具，以及美国少数磷化铟(InP) 晶圆厂之一。尽管拥有 $40 亿 $AMZN 认股权证和采购协议，12 月的订单似乎确实是基于 Maia 的集群。有传闻称 $AAOI 似乎正在为 $MSFT 的硅片开发新的光互连架构。尽管超大规模客户 ASIC 炒作和光子学反弹，$AAOI 股价毫无动静，因此在 $20 亿市值下绝对是隐藏宝石。但它高度依赖于 $MSFT 和 $AMZN（鉴于其云部门，它们很可能成功并大规模部署自有 ASIC）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Among $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. I've found $LITE to be the most asymmetrical setup since it's central to ironwood (with OCS), blackwell, and other hyperscaler ASICs. However, $AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only InP fab in US. Although they have $4B $AMZN warrants + purchase agreements, it does seem likely that Dec's orders were Maia-based clusters. There's rumors that $AAOI seems to be developing a new optical interconnect architecture specifically for $MSFT's silicon too. $AAOI hasn't moved at all, despite hyperscaler ASIC hype + photonic rallies, so it's a hidden gem for sure at $2B MC. However, it is highly levered to $MSFT and $AMZN (which will likely succeed + deploy their own ASICs at scale given their own cloud departments)
-
分析LITE、COHR光子学双寡头地位及AAOI对微软亚马逊ASIC的杠杆看涨逻辑。
我手里只有 $LITE 和 $AAOI 哈哈。但我对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的看法是，它们在光子学(Photonics)领域基本处于双寡头地位。其中 $LITE 额外受益于 Google TPU 的增长杠杆。然后是 $AAOI，它具有极高的超额收益(Alpha)潜力，且是对 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 超大规模云计算厂商专用集成电路(ASIC)的杠杆式看涨押注。目前尚未有行动，也没有大幅上涨（尽管作为光子学玩家，今年反而下跌了12%），因为市场尚未对 Amazon Trainium 或 Microsoft Maia 产生炒作热度。
原推 ↗英文原文
I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics. With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth. Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs. No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this year despite being a photonics player) because there's no investor hype about Amazon Trainium or Microsoft Maia (yet).
-
对比LITE与AAOI，看好AAOI在MSFT和AMZN ASIC中的重估潜力。
“太晚了”。 $LITE 是一家市值 260 亿美元的公司在未来 $GOOGL TPU 部署以及 $NVDA / $AMZN 等其他 GPU/ASIC 的核心位置。 它占据 Google TPU v7 8-12% 的物料清单(BOM)份额。这就像说当 $NVDA 市值达到 1 万亿美元时它“太晚了”一样。 但如果你想要另一个参与者，那就是 $AAOI。 $MSFT 正在 Maia ASIC 中使用它们，并且很可能正在与 $AAOI 创建一种新架构。 它们还与 $AMZN 拥有 40 亿美元的认股权证+购买协议。 所以这更像是一个做多 $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC 的玩法，但市场尚未真正关注这两家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC。 如果有任何关于这两者的利好消息，$AAOI 将极快地重估。 尽管据报道 $META 将购买大量产品，但每个人都跳上了 $GOOGL TPU 的顺风车。
原推 ↗英文原文
"Late". $LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs. 8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC. But if you want want another player, $AAOI. $MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI. They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN. So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet. If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast. Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.
-
计划研究Maia，已持AAOI作为LITE的杠杆替代。
@itsthesquonky 我今天会对此做一些研究，谢谢提醒。 我已经持有一些微型股，比如 $AAOI，在我看来它只是 $LITE 的杠杆版，仅仅是为了押注 $MSFT Maia 的放量。
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’ll do some research today on it, thanks for the shout. I’m already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp. There’s the conference Jan 6-8 I think which should be a catalyst if Microsoft reveals more news about it
-
作者认为AAOI和POET虽具十倍潜力但因执行风险未去风险化，不属于高确信度标的。
对我个人而言：当一家公司在根本上已“去风险化(de-risked)”并正从该点迈向规模化时，我才视其为“高确信度(high conviction)”标的。 例如，$NBIS 在与微软达成交易后。在光子学(photonics)领域，我个人更看好 $AAOI 而非 $POET。但它们都尚未“去风险化”。 正如你提到的，Poet 受益于 Celestial（已被 $MRVL 收购）。Marvell 基本上通过 Celestial 向超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)出售 Poet 的中介层(interposer)，用于连接 TPU/Trainium。 但这中间隔着多层环节。 $AAOI 已经拥有与超大规模云厂商的直接合同，例如与 $AMZN 合作 Trainium，与 $MSFT 合作 Maia。此外还有类似 $ALAB 与亚马逊那样的股权协议。 然而，它们实现了完全垂直整合且工厂建在德克萨斯州。如果能让整个供应链在美国实现规模化并完美执行，它们有巨大的10倍增长潜力。 但由于相比 $COHR 规模较小，$AAOI 存在巨大的执行风险，因此不属于高确信度标的。$POET 同理，目前尚无让我完全确信的去风险化因素。 不过，Poet 和 AAOI 都是具备10倍潜力的光子学标的，这也是我持仓部分 $AAOI 的原因，但它们都不属于高确信度投资。
原推 ↗英文原文
For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale. For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet". So Poet as you mentioned, benefits from Celestial, which got acquired $MRVL. Marvell basically sells Poet's interposer via Celestial to hyperscalers for connecting tpus/trainium. But this is via multiple hops away. $AAOI already had direct hyperscaler contracts like $AMZN for Trainium + $MSFT for Maia. And equity agreements like what $ALAB has for Amazon. However, they're fully vertically integrated + built in Texas. They have a pretty big potential to 10X if they can get the whole supply chain to scale in America + perfect execution. But because they're at lower scale compared to $COHR, $AAOI has huge execution risk + it's not high-conviction. Same with $POET, there's no de-risking factor yet that would make me fully convinced. However, Poet and AAOI are both photonics plays that can 10x, which is why I have some $AAOI in my portfolio, but neither are high conviction.
-
列出更稳的十倍股和小盘 moonshot
如果说“更安全”的 10 倍股，我会说未来 5 年是 $RKLB 和 $NBIS。 我完全能想象 Rocket Lab 有一天到 3000 亿美元估值，Nebius 到 2000 亿美元估值。 市值越小，10 倍概率越高（比如低于 20 亿美元）。显然，对 $HOOD 这类公司来说，一年翻倍要难得多。 但在小盘股里，$AAOI、$WLAC 和 $TE 是我喜欢小仓位参与的那类 moonshot。
原推 ↗英文原文
So for a “safer” 10x. I’d say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Rocketlab at $300B valuation and Nebius at $200B one day. The chance of a 10x increases the smaller marketcap they are (eg. Sub $2B), and it’s obviously much harder for companies like $HOOD to double in a year. But for smaller caps, $AAOI, $WLAC, and $TE are those types of moonshots I like to dabble in.
-
OpenAI 高估值融资改善 AI 数据中心与供应链风险偏好
最新消息：OpenAI 在完成 5000 亿美元估值、100 亿美元以上的 Amazon 轮融资后，正在以 7500 亿美元估值继续融资。 $CRWV：+15.85% $NBIS：+10.28% 有了这笔交易，像 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 这样的公司，在为 OpenAI 的资本开支需求建设容量时，对手方风险在结构上降低了，因为 OpenAI 的资产负债表更强了。 像 Nebius 这种算法上和行业龙头绑定的公司，也因此上涨。 从 Rocket Lab 到 Bitcoin，高 beta 资产普遍上涨。 最近因为日元套息交易解除，加上今天大量未平仓合约到期，市场出现了极端波动。 不过，AI 交易的基本面（尤其是 Micron 神级财报显示了极强内存需求）以及 Neocloud 的基本面，仍然比以往更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Latest news: OpenAI is raising funds at a $750B valuation after their $10B+ Amazon round at $500B. $CRWV: +15.85% $NBIS: +10.28% With this deal, companies like Coreweave and Oracle structurally have less counterparty risk with OpenAI's stronger balance sheet to fund capex requirements. Companies like Nebius that are algorithmically tied to the sector leaders are up as a result. High-Beta Assets from Rocketlab to Bitcoin are up across the board. There was extreme volatility recently with the Yen carry trade unwinding + large open interest expiring today. However, the fundamentals of the AI trade (especially with Micron's godlike ER showing extreme memory demand), and Neoclouds remain better than ever.
-
Amazon 投资 OpenAI 对 AI 数据中心和 ASIC 供应链的连锁影响
最新：Amazon 的 100 亿美元 OpenAI 融资，以及 AI 供应链的涟漪效应。 $AMZN 将以 5000 亿美元以上估值向 OpenAI 投资 100 亿美元以上。 为什么这是 AI 股票的重大结构性变化： 1. AI 数据中心交易去风险：（$ORCL、$CRWV、$APLD、$CORZ） 结合前面提到的 SPEED 法案，影响 Neocloud 的主要问题是： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED 法案直接处理了第 1 和第 2 点，但没有处理 OpenAI 相关的第 3 点。 影响 Oracle、CoreWeave 等最大 Neocloud/数据中心提供商的主要担忧，是它们为 OpenAI 这个对手方投入了巨额 capex，而 OpenAI 本身没有足够资金承诺这些资本开支。 但现在，随着 Amazon 新融资，第 3 点开始被解决。 - 新增 100 亿美元资金，加上 Amazon 的资产负债表支持 ChatGPT 的创造者，OpenAI 对 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 的早期承诺开始获得兜底。 - 下游影响：这直接降低了 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 的风险，因为它们在为 OpenAI 建设容量。再往下两层，依赖 CoreWeave 作为租户的 $APLD 或 $CORZ 也会被去风险。 由于 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 被视为“行业龙头”，这会立刻改变整个 Neocloud 板块的情绪，包括 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF 等。 2. Hyperscaler AI capex 浪潮（$AMZN、$MRVL、Alchip）： 我们之前看到，$AVGO ASIC backlog 之后，市场开始担心 hyperscaler 支出减弱，很多相关玩家因此大跌。 但这笔交易的关键条件之一，是 OpenAI 采用 Amazon 自研 Trainium ASIC。这代表非 Nvidia 集群会激进扩张。 - 设计与 IP：直接利好 Marvell（$MRVL）和 Alchip 等 ASIC 设计伙伴。 - 定制硅集群需要大量光互连和 HBM。这会为光子（$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR）和内存（$MU、SK 海力士）创造新的 capex 超级周期。 - 代工厂，比如 $TSM。 以及更多参与 hyperscaler ASIC 建设的相关公司。 唯一输家？Nvidia（$NVDA）。 Amazon 正在成功用它庞大的资产负债表，迫使领先 LLM 摆脱对 H100/Blackwell 的依赖，同时推动整条 AI 供应链。 核心结论是，AI 交易由世界上最富有的公司资助，比如 $AMZN；OpenAI 也正在证明，它可以通过出让股权来扩大资产负债表，以满足需求。 做多 AI 板块。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect. $AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks: 1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ ) With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, the main issues affecting Neoclouds were: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. the Speed bill directly addresses #1 and #2. But not #3 with OpenAI. The main fears affecting the biggest Neocloud/Datanceter providers like Oracle, Coreweave was their immense capex spend for a counterparty (OpenAI) that doesn't have the funding to commit to it's capex spend. But now, #3 is starting to be addressed with the new Amazon funding. - With a fresh $10 Billion and Amazon’s balance sheet backing the creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI's early commitments to Oracle and CoreWeave are now starting to be backstopped. - Downstream Impact: This directly derisks companies like $CRWV and $ORCL, who are building capacity for OpenAI. And by two hops, companies like $APLD or $CORZ that rely on Coreweave as a tenant. As Coreweave and Oracle are seen as the "sector leaders" this immediately changes sentiment across the whole Neocloud sector from $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and others as well. 2. The HyperScaler AI capex wave ( $AMZN, $MRVL, Alchip): We've seen fears after $AVGO ASIC backlog about hyperscaler spending waning. And many related players tanked on the news. However, a key condition of this deal is OpenAI’s adoption of Amazon’s proprietary Trainium ASICs. This signals an aggressive scaling of non-Nvidia clusters. - Design & IP: Direct benefit to ASIC design partners like Marvell ( $MRVL ) and Alchip. - Custom silicon clusters require massive optical interconnects and HBM. This creates a new capex supercycle for photonics ( $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR ) and memory ( $MU, SK Hynix). - Foundries such as $TSM. and many more related companies involved in the buildout of hyperscaler ASICs. The only loser? Nvidia ( $NVDA ). Amazon is successfully using its massive balance sheet to force the leading LLM to diversify away from H100/Blackwell dependence and boosting the whole AI supply chain alongside it. The main takeaway is that the AI trade is funded by the richest companies in the world, such as $AMZN, and OpenAI is showing it can scale up its balance sheet to meet requirements by trading off equity. Go long on the AI sector.
-
周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
-
看好$SNAP因降本增效及AI收入，预计2026-27年有100%+涨幅。
$SNAP 在 7.64 美元时被极度低估。 -> Snapchat 通过转向 GCP 削减运营支出，并将其转化为收入。 -> Perplexity 交易在现有收入基础上增加了 4 亿美元股权/现金。 预计这些变化带来的净自由现金流(Net FCF)在 2026 年底至 2027 年初将达到 +6.3 亿美元（+1.9 亿运营云支出节省，+5.4 亿内存收入，-1 亿存储成本）。 CEO 出售 1000 万美元股票并不重要，尤其是当有 5 亿美元回购时。 $SNAP 不需要成为 $META，它永远不会是。 在 130 亿美元市值下，它只需要削减成本并改善来自其 15-20 亿美元季度收入（~55% 毛利率）的自由现金流。 那么即使用户增长放缓或轻微下降，它也将获得巨大的重估。 目前税务收割(tax harvesting)可能在未来两周结束。但如果你能等待整整一年，我有信心一旦计入 GCP 运营支出削减和 AI 收入流，Snap 将大幅跑赢任何指数。 进入 2026-2027 年，这里有 100%+ 的上行空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64. -> Snapchat cutting opex costs with GCP and converting that to revenue. -> Perplexity deal adding $400m in equity/cash on top of existing revenue. Net FCF Is estimate from these changes is +$630M (+$190M opex cloud, memory revenue +540M, storage cogs -$100m) late 2026, early 2027. The CEO selling $10M in shares is not material, especially when there's $500M in buybacks. $SNAP doesn't need to be $META, it never will. At a $13B marketcap, it just needs to cut costs and improve FCF from its $1.5B-$2B quarterly revenue (~55% gross profit margins). Then it will be re-rated immensely, even if user counts slows or slightly drops. Right now tax harvesting is likely ending next two weeks. But if you can wait a whole year, I'm confident Snap will strongly outperform any index once we factor in GCP opex cuts and AI revenue streams. 100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.
-
博主披露核心及轮动持仓，并解释转向方向性评论的原因。
核心持仓是高确信度的多头：$BTC、$RKLB、$HOOD、$NBIS、$ALAB、$TSM。可能将 $LITE 和 $CRCL 移入上述核心多头组合，但它们是我正在建仓的新头寸。然后是短期至中期混合持仓，如 $SNAP、$CIFR、$RDDT、$SMCI、$HIMS、$TE、$LTC、$KRUS、AMKR、$LITE、$FLY、$WLAC、$META、$AMZN、$TTD 以及现在的 $AAOI 等。我在短期至中期持仓之间进行大量轮动。我以前发布更多关于日内交易的内容，但最终在这里获得了太多粉丝，所以想转向方向性评论。发布头寸更新很难，因为我喜欢解释我这样做的原因！我记得在 $IREN 约 50-60 美元时卖出，结果在接下来的三周里收到了一堆恶评 lol
原推 ↗英文原文
Core portfolio is high conviction longs: $BTC, $RKLB, $HOOD, $NBIS, $ALAB, $TSM Probably moving $LITE and $CRCL to the core long port above, but they’re newer positions that I’m building up. Then short-mid term mix like $SNAP, $CIFR, $RDDT, $SMCI, $HIMS, $TE, $LTC, $KRUS, AMKR, $LITE, $FLY, $WLAC, $META, $AMZN, $TTD, and now $AAOI etc. I rotate between short-medium term holds A LOT. I used to post more day trading stuff but I ended up getting too many followers here, so wanted to switch to directional commentary. It’s hard to post position updates because I like to explain why I do things! I remember selling $IREN around $50-$60 or something and just got a bunch of hate comments for the next three weeks lol
-
看好AAOI中期潜力，因ASIC生态关键地位及美国制造优势，但暂小仓位以控风险。
是的，我非常非常喜欢 $LITE，但它的高估值溢价已经被市场充分定价。 我仅在 $AAOI 上持有相对较小的仓位，主要是出于执行风险的考虑：万一超大规模云厂商取消采购订单，或者面临捷普(Jabil)的竞争。 话虽如此，它目前被市场当作一家小型组件制造商来定价，但实际上它受益于微软(Microsoft) Maia 和亚马逊(Amazon) Trainium 的 AI 芯片量产，且“美国制造”是其强劲驱动力，因为它在超大规模云厂商的专用集成电路(ASIC)生态系统中扮演着关键角色。 这只是一项基于定性分析的投资，依据诸如 30-35% 的毛利率等粗略估算，以及假设其因 2026 年超大规模云厂商的放量而超越市场预期。 不过，其市值足够小，足以让我将其作为中期投资标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah I really, really like $LITE but it’s already priced in with a premium. I only have relatively small positions in $AAOI though just because of execution risk in case a hyperscaler drops purchase orders + competition from Jabil. That being said it’s priced as a small cap component manufacturer but has AI $MSFT Maia $AMZN trainium ramp and made in America as a great driver since it plays a critical part in the hyperscaler ASIC ecosystem. This is just a qualitative investment, off rough estimates like 30-35% margins and assumptions of beating projections due to hyperscaler ramp in 2026. The marketcap is small enough to make me an investor for medium term though.
-
解析Mag7 ASIC供应链，看好$AAOI因$MSFT散热互连修复及$AMZN订单带来的增长。
不客气！如果我们看Mag7的ASIC，$GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood的供应商在$META交易后曾有一波上涨。 $AMZN Trainium即将像$GOOGL那样开始放量，近期超大规模云厂商$AAOI的订单很可能来自他们。 $AAOI的超额收益逻辑在于：$MSFT Maia 200的订单更多是研发支出，且他们推迟了路线图（可能由于散热和互连问题，例如连接10万颗芯片而不熔化），标准线缆无法用于Maia 200。 但这对$AAOI是利好，因为$MSFT很可能使用他们来解决这一问题，且所有这些ASIC支出将发生在2026-2027年，加上远期收入指引的大幅超预期。 但$AMZN提供了约40亿美元的安全垫以降低风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
NP! If we look at mag7 ASICs, $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood suppliers had a run after the $META deal. $AMZN Trainium is going to ramp up soon like $GOOGL and the recent hyperscaler $AAOI order was likely from them. The alpha for $AAOI is that $MSFT Maia 200 orders were more of R&D spend and they delayed their roadmap (likely due to thermal and interconnect issues eg. 100,000 chips to connect without melting) and standard cabling wasn't working for Maia 200. But this is bullish for $AAOI since $MSFT likely uses them for this fix and all of this ASIC spend will be occur in 2026-2027 + huge beat on forward revenue projections. But $AMZN is providing the nice $4B floor for de-risking.
-
分析AAOI依赖Mag7的垂直整合优势，已建仓并看好LITE。
我原本在研究一篇来自 Semianalysis 的文章中关于 $AMZN Trainium 基准测试以及亚马逊供应链的内容。鉴于一些朋友（如 @yianisz）之前曾对此发帖讨论，我决定深入挖掘。亚马逊在扩大 Trainium/Inferentia 集群时提供了约 40 亿美元的支出作为后盾，加上 $MSFT 在 ASIC 集群上的投入，随着行业向 800G 升级，我们很可能会看到更多超大规模云厂商客户。对于一家市值 25 亿美元的公司来说，如此依赖 Mag7 的情况实属罕见 lol。下行风险与积极因素并存：由于激光器在德克萨斯州内置生产，该公司实现了垂直整合（更高利润率）。我看好未来巨大的量增需求，但：关键在于执行，他们必须在不搞砸的情况下建成 800G/1.6T 光收发器。我已经全仓持有 $AAOI，出于风险管理考虑，仓位规模相对较小适中（毕竟它仍是 25 亿市值的小盘股）。我依然更看好 $LITE，但鉴于其本月已上涨 46%，很难进行补仓。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was actually looking into $AMZN Trainium benchmarks from a semianalysis post and at Amazon's supply chain. And some friends like @yianisz post about it earlier, so I decided to look deeper at it. But it has ~$4B spend from $AMZN as a backstop as they ramp up Trainium/Inferentia clusters, spend from $MSFT ASIC clusters, and we'll likely see more hyperscaler clients as the industry moves to 800g ramp. Mag7 dependency is incredibly rare coming from a $2.5B marketcap company lol. Downside + positive: Is vertically integrated (higher-margins), since it's lasers are builtin Texas. I see just incredible volume demand, moving forward but: the whole name of the game is execution since they actually have to build out the 800G/1.6T transceivers without messing up. I'm fully invested already in $AAOI already with relatively small-moderate position sizing for risk management (it's still a small cap with $2.5B MC). I still like $LITE a lot more, but a bit hard to cost average up on that when it's up 46% this month.
-
作者认为因拥有直接大客户及更低估值，$AAOI 优于 $POET。
我研究过 $POET，但相比 $AAOI 我更喜欢后者，因为 AAOI 已经拥有 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 等直接超大规模客户(hyperscaler customers)。$POET 旗下的 Celestial 已被 $MRVL 收购，Celestial 使用 Poet 的中介层(interposer)来连接 TPU/Trainium，而 Marvell 将其出售给超大规模客户。但这并不等同于通过直接来自 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 的大批量订单以及类似 Amazon 与 $ALAB 的股权投资协议来实现的“几步之遥”的去风险(de-risking)。Amazon 在 $AAOI 中拥有类似 $ALAB 的财务激励，但 Astera 已经是家市值 300 亿美元的公司，而 AAOI 的市值仅为 25 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've looked into $POET but didn't like it as much compared to $AAOI given AAOI already has direct hyperscaler customers with $MSFT and $AMZN. $POET had Celestial that got acquired $MRVL, where Celestial used poet’s interposer to connect tpus/trainium, and Marvell sells that to hyperscalers. But it's not quite the same de-risking few hops away as direct massive volume orders from $AMZN and $MSFT and equity agreements that Amazon has like they did with $ALAB. Amazon has a financial incentive in $AAOI like $ALAB, but Astera is already a $30B company, while AAOI is a $2.5B MC.
-
看好$AAOI，因其在AI光互联中的核心地位及美国本土制造优势，认为其被严重低估。
我买入 $ALAB、$NBIS、$TSM 和 $LITE，是因为“七巨头”(Mag7) 的收入正流向这些公司。 $LITE 的独特之处在于其在 GOOGL TPU v7、AMZN Trainium v3/4 和 NVDA Blackwell 中的角色。 但我发现了一个新标的。 一家市值低于 30 亿美元的小盘股，符合我的投资逻辑： 名称 - $AAOI 一家小型光子学玩家，也是我持仓的两家光子学公司之一： 1. Lumentum ($LITE) 在每一款芯片的部署/爬坡中都占据独特地位，因为其光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching) 技术被用于 Blackwell、Trainium 和 Ironwood，作为一种“横向扩展”(scale-across) 型技术。 无论超大规模云厂商选择 ASIC 还是 GPU，$LITE 都能胜出，因为它处于核心位置。 2. Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 更多涉及“纵向扩展”(scale-out) 连接，针对 Trainium、Maia 等定制 ASIC 集群，通过 400G 和 800G 光缆及光收发器实现。 鉴于 $AAOI 在 AWS（Trainium 的大客户）和 MSFT Maia ASIC 中的角色，它也能无论何种情况都胜出。 行业正经历由向 800G 速度迁移驱动的“超级周期”，而 AAOI 正处于中心位置。 此外，AAOI 具有独特的地缘政治角度： 美国优先。 与许多无晶圆厂(fabless)并将生产外包到台湾的公司不同，Applied Optoelectronics 在德克萨斯州自行制造激光器。 美国超大规模云厂商（特别是 Amazon 和 Microsoft）正在积极减少对关键基础设施中国供应链的依赖，这有助于 AAOI 实现本土激光器制造。 我们还看到一家“主要超大规模云厂商”对其 800G 数据中心光收发器下达了另一笔巨额订单。 但 AAOI 的交易表现像一家困境公司；然而，其亚马逊权证协议隐含的收入为 2025 年 Q4 和 2026 财年的 800G 爬坡创造了非对称的风险/回报特征。鉴于其在 AI 建设中的角色及现有的超大规模云厂商合同，AAOI 似乎结构性被低估。 市场终于开始重估 $LITE，但感觉 $AAOI 才刚刚开始，鉴于其小市值以及作为超大规模云厂商 ASIC 集群关键玩家和“美国制造”的独特角度。 市场目前正在对光子学玩家进行大幅重估并赋予高溢价，但 AAOI 今年仅上涨 2.20%，似乎蓄势待发。
原推 ↗英文原文
I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them. Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell. But there's a new one I found out about. A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis: Name - $AAOI A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in: 1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology. $LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all. 2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers. $AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs. The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it. On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle, America first. Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas. US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home. And we've seen another huge volume order from a "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers. But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts. The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America. The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.