$AAOI
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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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博主看好光子学供应链，认为激光器光纤将重现内存超级周期。
花旗银行TMT团队：“激光器和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM（高带宽内存）’。我从2025年就开始谈论像 $LITE / $AAOI 这样的激光器公司，以及向连续波(CW)架构的转变，这领先于当前的行业共识。我完全同意Lightmatter和花旗的观点。仅供参考：激光器方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / 古河电工 / 住友电工是较知名的标的。光纤方面：$GLW / 古河电工 / 古河光缆 / 住友电工是较知名的敞口（显然供应链中还有更多）。*披露，个人对该主题有持仓。补充评论称：‘紧张的供应状况将支持这些资产的稀缺性溢价。’我们已经看到激光器价格上涨，正如今天在深圳CIOE 2026上看到的 $SIVE 渠道检查以及 $LITE 的财报评论所示。因此，我认为2027-2028年的光子学超级周期将非常类似于2025-2026年的内存周期。尤其是随着高盛修正后的估计显示，每GPU-ASIC的光学内容将显著增加……
英文原文
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
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博主赞赏粉丝学习其研究框架而非照抄个股
我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究，举一反三。或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于连续波(CW)激光器供需失衡的思路，应用到 A 股。很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票，并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！
英文原文
我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究, 举一反三. 或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于 CW 激光器供需失衡的思路, 应用到 A 股. 很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票, 并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！
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GPRO拟并购光子公司进军AI光模块，博主对此跨界竞争表示意外。
什么……$GPRO 在宣布计划与光子学公司“Starman Optical”合并后上涨了 79.17%。 旨在为 AI 数据中心制造美国本土的 800G/1.6T 光收发器。 GoPro 试图与 $AAOI 竞争，这绝对不在我的雷达范围内。 https://t.co/5z2XXHaxvs
英文原文
What... $GPRO is up 79.17% after planning to merge with a photonics company "Starman Optical" To build US 800G/1.6T optical transceivers for AI data centers. GoPro trying to compete with $AAOI was definitely not on my radar. https://t.co/5z2XXHaxvs
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看好AAOI 2027年表现及AXTI衬底瓶颈，提示短期抛压与稀释风险。
@DZMakeMoney 我无法就人们应如何处理交易提供建议。就个人而言，我认为 $AAOI 在 2027 年将表现优异，且 $AXTI 的磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈/卡脖子环节已得到验证。对于 AXT 而言，更多取决于其与 $LITE 和 $COHR 等协议带来的平均售价(ASP)提升。AXT 近期因宏观因素受高贝塔 AI 板块抛售的负面影响。AOI 有一笔令人失望的 6 亿美元可转换优先股(ATM)发行，造成大量短期压力。但这不影响其 2027 年光模块(transceiver)需求可见度，且他们应很快完成 1.6T 认证。过去两个月出现大幅回调，但取决于你发现什么有吸引力，也有许多机会。
英文原文
@DZMakeMoney I can’t give advice over what people should do with their trades. Personally speaking, I think $AAOI outperforms in 2027 and the $AXTI InP substrates bottleneck/chokepoint got validated. With AXT it’s more of a matter of ASP hikes moving forward with their agreements like $LITE and $COHR. AXT is negatively affected by high beta AI sector selloff recently with macro. AOI has a very disappointing $600m ATM so that’s a lot of near term overhang. But doesn’t affect their 2027 transceiver demand visibility and they should finish 1.6T qualifications soon. Past 2 month has seen major corrections, but there’s a lot of opportunity too depending on what you find compelling
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AAOI基本面良好且需求可见度高，但6亿可转债构成短期压力。
@nosignal62478 我认为 $AAOI 没问题。我没在这里列出他们，是因为他们不被认为是商用连续波(CW)激光器的供应商（鉴于他们将其内部用于光收发器）。对2027年的需求可见度令人难以置信，只是有一笔6亿美元的可转债(ATM)，这带来了很大的短期抛压。
英文原文
@nosignal62478 I think $AAOI is fine. I didn't list them here because they're not known to be a merchant cw laser supplier (given they use them internally for transceivers). Demand visibility into 2027 is incredible, there's just a $600m ATM, which presents a lot of short term overhang.
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马斯克指出液冷、变压器等基础设施是AI建设难点，博主列出相关概念股。
来自埃隆推文的几个随机想法： $AAON - 冷水机组/液冷 $NVT - 冷却 $MOD - 冷水机组/冷却 $IESC - 布线 $MTRS - 冷水机组 $JCI - 冷水机组 $HPS.A - 变压器（披露我持有该头寸） $PRY.MI - 网络/布线（光纤） $CRDO / $AAOI (同上) / $LITE / $COHR - 网络 既然埃隆·马斯克指出： - 变压器 - 布线 - 液冷 - 大型冷水机组 + 复杂网络 是AI算力建设中的故障点。 这“比寻找电力更难”。
英文原文
Just some random ideas from Elon’s post: $AAON - Chillers / liquid cooling $NVT - Cooling $MOD - Chillers / Cooling $IESC - Wiring $MTRS - chillers $JCI - chillers $HPS.A - Transformers (disclosure I own positions in this) $PRY.MI - networking/wiring(fiber) $CRDO / $AAOI (same) / $LITE / $COHR - networking Since Elon Musk cited: - transformers - wiring - liquid cooling - massive chillers + complex networking As the point of failure for AI compute buildout. Which is “harder than finding power”
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批评 $SIVE 财报沟通保守，建议激进并购与双重上市以加速扩张。
如果我要批评 $SIVE 的财报： 1. 管理层低估了两个最重要的披露事项。 -> 6 个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的合作项目 -> 晶圆代工产能(Foundry capacity)（正值行业瓶颈期） 这是电话会议最重要的部分，本应重点阐述其经济规模。但我们只听到了2-3句话。 而且，不应该让 X 上的动漫头像来主要谈论这些影响。 2. CFO 需要重新培训或换人。 作为股东，听到律师式的回答令人愤怒。连我都对这句话感到恼火： “我们将评估时机，并决定是否在条件成熟时推进。” 现在他们申请双重上市以逃离充满敌意的瑞典市场，这应该是板上钉钉的事。 股东资助一家未来增长型公司，不是为了听律师式的回答。 再次强调，这可能是 CFO 给出的最糟糕的回答之一，需要坚定的承诺和更快的时间表。 3. 7000万美元应用于并购和双重上市。 -> 坦白说，现阶段专注于混合制造(Hybrid manufacturing)是资本浪费，听到这个我很失望。 虽然最终需要，但已有2家晶圆代工供应商。 -> 你拥有大量新资本和庞大的市值。 利用它进行类似 $AVGO 风格的收购，获取 Cloud Light 类的可插拔模块或光引擎(Optical engines)知识产权。 Lumilens 在2年内从0增长到55亿美元，现在已与超大规模云服务商合作。 Sivers 应尽快摆脱激光瓶颈，不要只做组件供应商。 最重要的是，谁在乎与客户竞争？如果客户说：“如果你做可插拔模块，我们将转向其他供应商购买激光”， 谁会？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 将激光转向内部使用。许多亚洲玩家已分配完毕。 尽可能利用当前的瓶颈，因为几乎没有合格的替代选择。 我确信所有合作伙伴都试图向上垂直整合到激光层级并进行竞争。 如果在 Q2 期间尝试了新的光引擎/可插拔模块收购，情况会大不相同。 _ TLDR： $SIVE 应旨在成为下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司一样闪电扩张。 利用那7000万美元资本在下半年(H2)加速，至少完成准备。并预计纳斯达克上市在 2027 年上半年完成。 而不是那个时间段的“评估”。 并利用资本+股权向下扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，使用你的股权估值，收购 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 类初创公司。 至于电话会议的措辞，市场关心的是晶圆代工分配+6家可插拔模块玩家的经济价值，而不是其他业务部门。 $SIVE 迄今为止极其保守，但 他们需要加速并向面向未来的美国/国际股东沟通。 而不是面向关心 Q2/滚动十二个月(TTM)收入的当地瑞典受众。 否则他们将被视为亚洲组件供应商，并最终被估值为欧洲公司。
英文原文
If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
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质疑Sivers混合制造策略，支持AAOI/LITE垂直整合模式。
@shawnyang1128 这是他们代工厂合作伙伴在2024年披露的晶圆产能。也许有某家美国厂商被纳入了。不过我不喜欢Sivers在这个阶段转向混合制造模式（我认为其目标仅为1/3的产能）。但我确实同意需要像$AAOI或$LITE那样实现垂直整合。
英文原文
@shawnyang1128 This was disclosed wafer capacity from their foundry partners back in 2024. Maybe one of the US players got added. I’m not a fan of Sivers switching to hybrid manufacturing at this stage though (think it targeted 1/3rd of capacity). But I do agree it’s needed to be vertically integrated like $AAOI or $LITE.
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Sivers凭借激光器产能优势，在供应短缺中获大厂青睐，前景看好。
我看待 $SIVE 的角度如下： 公司/云服务提供商(CSP) 不遗余力地锁定光模块用 CW 激光器产能。 因此，Sivers 带着以下优势进入行业： - 来自 Win Semi 的大规模产能 - 来自新晶圆厂（可能自 2024 年起已进行资格认证）的“目前可用的巨大产能”，因其已合作“一段时间” 此次财报中让我兴奋的是“6 个可插拔/模块”项目（数量巨大）。 我解读的细微差别是： - $COHR 称因内部光模块需求耗尽所有产能，短期内无法对外销售 InP 激光器 - $AAOI 也表示内部消耗了激光器产能（此前并非主要独立供应商） - $LITE 受瓶颈限制，一直在公开市场购买激光器 你之前的独立供应商已将激光器产能转向内部。 因此许多大厂（如 Eoptolink/Innolight 仅为举例）可能正寻求更多激光器来源。 这也符合“具备快速资格认证和爬坡能力”的说法（这与 Series B 初创企业不符）... 很多人问为什么没有到 2030 年的长期协议(LTA)？ -> 你无法随意绕过成熟玩家已完成的资格认证流程。 为何不披露客户？ 正如 $MRVL + $POET 合作所示，你不能随意披露合作供应商。 但“12 亿美元机会管道”几乎翻倍，相对于 $JBL + $GFS 的增幅。这信号表明新的可插拔项目可能比 Jabil 更实质。 因此，如果 $SIVE 在供应短缺期间带来海量 CW DFB 激光器产能... 行业条件已发生重大变化，提高了项目转化率。 加上所有~估算客户 jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (可能 lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 家其他可插拔玩家等。 我认为连点成线后，Sivers 将大获成功。
英文原文
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.
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批评者误判半导体资格认证周期，应关注超大规模供应商认证进度。
@SoundResponse 很多批评来自那些不懂如何评估半导体玩家资格认证周期的人。$AAOI 在 30 美元时和 $AEHR 在 30 美元时也遇到过同样的情况。这说明当人们深入审视开发合同收入、一次性会计费用，而不是超大规模供应商的资格认证时间表进展时，就会得出这种结论。
英文原文
@SoundResponse Lot of critiques are from people who don’t understand how to evaluate qualification cycle semi players. Got the same thing with $AAOI back at $30 or $AEHR at $30. Goes to show when people look hard into development contract revenues, one-off accounting charges, rather than how hyperscaler supplier qualification timelines are going
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SIVE获新晶圆产能及6家新客户，解决CW激光器瓶颈，博主看多。
$SIVE 财报电话会纪要刚出，简而言之： - 现在有6家新的可插拔模块厂商正在与 Sivers 合作。 这可能是继新晶圆厂产能分配之外，本次财报最大的新闻。 “3家处于Alpha样品评估阶段”，另外3家处于技术对接/供应评估阶段。” 这也解释了为什么他们12亿美元的营收管道大幅膨胀（因为这次飞跃比 Jabil 更大）。 - 预计与 $JBL 的初始生产订单将在2027年上半年下达，量产爬坡计划于2027年下半年进行。 冲啊，Jabil 是巨大的超大规模客户供应商，终于有了明确的量产营收时间表。 - “新的晶圆厂合作伙伴带来了现已可用的巨大产能” 这正是我想听到的。显然他们为此筹备已久，因为产能“现已可用”，这非常关键。 连续波激光器(CW lasers)严重短缺，而 $SIVE 引入了 Win Semi 之外的新供应源（也降低了风险）。 正如你从其他合格的 CW 厂商那里听到的（他们生产的任何东西都能卖光），随着 Sivers 的合作伙伴完成资格认证，我预计情况会相同。 - “长期产能模型中，三分之一的制造产能将内部化，而三分之二来自我们的晶圆厂合作伙伴” 对此反应冷淡，虽然他们最终需要像 $AAOI / $LITE 那样垂直整合是有道理的，但这意味着更多的资本支出（最好在纳斯达克上市后再进行）。 正如你在 ESMT + DDR2 瓶颈中看到的，仅在短缺期间通过无晶圆厂模式确保晶圆所带来的营业利润是惊人的。 而且用未来的现金流来资助这一点会更合理。 - 纳斯达克上市正在进行中。CFO 给出了非常像律师的回答，但一如既往地在正轨上。 - “我们目前不认为生产能力是瓶颈” 这很有意义，因为随着新的晶圆厂合作伙伴加入，意味着 $SIVE 正在为一个瓶颈市场中提供非常关键的 CW 激光器供应。 简而言之： - 新的实质性晶圆厂产能分配！（在 CW 激光器短缺期间非常、非常关键） - 除了 $JBL 之外的6家新可插拔模块厂商 - 来自 Jabil 的明确营收爬坡时间表 对可插拔模块 -> 非平面光学(NPO) -> 共封装光学(CPO) 的重点关注似乎是演进路径。唯一反应冷淡的是建立内部产能，但长期来看是积极的。 总之，读完纪要后我非常高兴，除了可能优先投资激光器产能而非 IP 收购（这在行业短缺期间也是可以接受的）。 6家新的可插拔模块厂商 + “现已可用”的实质性晶圆分配，这是一个相当惊人的披露。
英文原文
$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR: - 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now. Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations. "3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage." And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil). - Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027 LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp. - "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now" This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL. CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks). As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same. - "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners" Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing). As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible. And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road. - NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual. - "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time" This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market. TLDR: - NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage) - 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL - Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive. Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition. The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.
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解释半导体从开发到量产的周期，类比AAOI和AEHR的历史。
@Finishurbkfst23 因为它们正处于资格认证(qualification)阶段。 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 在出货量拐点到来之前也是同样的情况。 这仅仅是理解半导体从开发到资格认证再到量产爬坡(ramp)的周期。
英文原文
@Finishurbkfst23 Because they're qualification stage. Same thing with $AAOI or $AEHR before their volume inflections. It's just understanding semi ramp cycles from development -> qualification -> volume ramp.
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CW激光器产能紧缺，$SIVE作为剩余现货供应商受益。
我知道大家都在关注 $NVDA 的财报…… 但你们知道 Landmark 已与美国客户签署为期4年的连续波(CW)协议以确保“充足供应”吗？ 所以现在的格局是： - $LITE（产能耗尽） - $COHR（产能耗尽） - Landmark（产能已锁定） - $AAOI（光模块产能） - $MTSI（尚未量产） - $SMTC（产能有限） 我记得今年早些时候说过，CW激光器将是下一个光学变革，且会被 Nvidia 严重瓶颈化？ 看着这一切上演很有趣，参与者已签署至2030年的长期协议(LTA)（暗示其他玩家可用产能更少）。 这对 $SIVE / Win Semi 的影响非常重大，因为它是少数拥有产能（+ CPO级激光器）的剩余CW现货供应商之一。 让我们看看他们的执行情况。
英文原文
I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.
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SMTC财报大超预期，光模块需求强劲，产能瓶颈凸显，博主虽未持仓但高度赞赏。
回到 $SMTC 的电影：“瓶颈疯狂运转”： 我最喜欢的引用是：“目前可用性比定价更重要”。 在当前光产品市场中： - 已预订的光学订单预计短期内不会流失，这表明他们能很好地转嫁成本上涨。 - 我其实最关心 Semtech 在收购 HieFo 后的连续波(CW)激光产品： Semtech 预计用于收发器的 CW 激光收入将于 FY28 上半年开始。明确表示产能有限。 与激光领导者相比，他们似乎仍大幅落后，但正在为 2027 年的爬坡取得进展。 - 终端接口适配器(TIA)和驱动器解决方案需求依然异常强劲（从 $AAOI 业绩中得到证实）。 继续深化与所有领先超大规模云服务商的合作。 “我们现在正在为每个模块供应商设计”，预计年底前 1.6T FiberEdge（TIA + 驱动器）的市场份额将超过 50%。 关于占据多数市场份额，这是一个非常有力的声明。 - 1.6T FiberEdge 认证比预期提前完成（对可插拔制造商如 AOI 是利好信号） 问：“关于积压订单延伸到 2028 年多久，有什么快速看法？” 答：对于本财年剩余时间的积压订单，我认为我们的目标已全部预订。对于明年，我们可能已完成 70% 以上。 管理层表示当前产能可能不足以应对 2028 财年，尤其是下半年（需求可见度极高） Q2 营收： - 3.419 亿美元 vs. 预期约 3.29 亿美元 - 调整后每股收益(EPS) 0.71 美元 vs. 0.61 美元 Q3 指引最令人兴奋： 4.1 亿美元营收 vs. 预期约 3.6 亿美元 1.05 美元 EPS vs. 0.73 美元 EPS。 是的……看看这漂亮的季度营收拐点。 巨大的业绩超预期，1.6T 爬坡的利好信号很强。我不持有 Semtech，但这些财报太棒了。
英文原文
All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.
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展望SIVE财报，重点关注光子学合作进展、JBL量产及纳斯达克上市计划。
很多人都在关注两天后 $SIVE 的财报。 我关注的重点： 1. 我希望看到更多关于光子学联合开发/认证/合同的可见性。 -> $AAOI 表示多家客户向他们咨询共封装光学(CPO)激光器（但不得不拒绝） -> $MTSI 表示许多客户咨询连续波(CW)产能（但要到2027年下半年才能上线） 所以请仔细阅读关于一家作为 $GFS 参考激光器供应商、为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块（如Intel Siph）、为Ayar提供CPO的公司。 并且处于独立供应商地位： -> 拥有独立的CW DFB供应（与Win semi合作） -> CPO级激光器。 如果有更多客户接近Sivers，这将是非常积极的信号。 2. 持续进展转化为量产 -> 我最兴奋的是 $JBL，这可能是2027年上半年主要的收入增长来源。 -> $AEVA 相比之下可能小得多，但应在2026年下半年有所贡献。 -> Ayar和光I/O玩家已表示2028年才大规模量产(HVM)，所以那里不太期待。 -> 其他可插拔玩家（来自上一份财报）的联合开发转化为认证->量产。 除此之外： 3. 纳斯达克上市 -> 我们已经得到了“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以不再需要进一步细化。得到更新总是好的。 4. 财务数据 -> 再次强调，对于处于认证周期的玩家，当前财务数据不是重点。提醒一下，本季度有一些一次性会计处理，这在表面上会影响数据。 主要看点是未来季度的量产爬坡。 -> 收入管道增加 -> 签署的任何早期量产合同 鉴于最近7000万美元的融资+自举稀释压力消除，资产负债表担忧应该已经消除。 额外惊喜： -> 关于已确保的配额的信息“例如，我们确保了大量的CW产能->鉴于当前的短缺，这将是极高的信号。 -> 重申AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent提到的需求。“例如，我们获得的任何产能都将被需求填满” $AAOI 在表示2027年预计产能约4.71亿美元并重申收入指引后，股价从30美元暴涨至220美元（但随后进行了大量定向增发ATM）。 如果Sivers能给出一个雄心勃勃的多头案例+未来时间表（如2028年上半年）的满产能收入声明，那将很好，但不强求。 进一步的重新评级将有助于通过类似Cloud Light的并购来加速未来财报的收入。 显然Sivers有其他量产爬坡，但我认为光子学是市场主要定价的部分。 无论如何，对即将到来的事情感到兴奋。
英文原文
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
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看好SIVE获新资质或联合开发机会，因行业正积极寻求合作。
@adiradir734145 我认为市场只需让主厨 $SIVE 继续烹饪。从其他财报来看，大家似乎都在积极接触 $MTSI 或 $AAOI 等厂商以达成协议。因此，Sivers 获得新资质或联合开发的机会似乎相当高。
英文原文
@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.
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AAOI避签LTA以保灵活性，虽显意外但有望借短缺获定价权。
@siflower 不完全是，我认为 $AAOI 表示他们避免签署长期协议(LTA)，以免产能过多绑定单一客户而不得不拒绝其他客户。如果签署了带预付款的长期协议，那么在那种情况下可能就不需要如此大规模的自动取款机(ATM)增发。考虑到 $NVDA 的长期协议对 $LITE / $COHR 效果很好，这个决定有点令人惊讶。不过我假设随着时间推移，由于当前激光器/光模块短缺，AOI 会获得更大的定价权。
英文原文
@siflower Not exactly, I think $AAOI stated they avoided LTAs so they wouldn't have too much capacity committed to one customer and have to turn away others. If they signed LTAs with prepayments, then that in scenario there probably wouldn't need to be such sizeable ATMs. Decision was a bit surprising though considering how well $NVDA LTAs turned out well for $LITE / $COHR. I would assume though AOI gets more pricing leverage as time goes on due to current laser/transceiver shortages.
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澄清对AAOI的看多立场，虽不满其ATM融资时机但认可其产能瓶颈逻辑。
关于$6亿自动取款机(ATM)融资，到处都有误读。我依然看多$AAOI，且持仓较重（所以我更在意）。 我一直坚持的观点是：不喜欢过度使用ATM/稀释股权进行融资。此前在$IREN和$POET上我也这么说过。 我会对自己的持仓如AOI保持一致性。 然而，我超配AOI而非其他（看着你Poet）的原因是： AOI确实面临产能瓶颈，且需求可见度高。 关于时机： - AOI本应等到1.6T光模块认证完成（预计未来几周） - 本可使用高于市价的可转债等其他结构 但他们在股价从$220跌至$130时操作，且未来每次使用ATM都可能带来短期结构性抛压。 我不必支持每一个商业决策，才能继续做多。
英文原文
Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.
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博主持有AAOI但对其融资策略存疑。
@OscarCantInvest 我仍然持有 $AAOI 的头寸，但我可能不喜欢其融资方式/时机/金额。
英文原文
@OscarCantInvest I still have $AAOI positions but I can dislike financing methods/timing/amounts.
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AAOI频繁ATM融资稀释股权，博主强烈看空
随着 $AAOI 频繁进行 5 亿或 6 亿美元的自动柜台交易(ATM)发行，越来越难支持它。虽然运营前景可能在某时点转好，但股权结构/融资方式正变得对股东越来越不友好。我非常非常讨厌 ATM 和不断的资本募集，即便它们是在扩充产能。
英文原文
It's getting much harder to support $AAOI when they keep dropping $500m or $600M ATMs left and right. At a certain point, the operating outlook could be positive. But the share structure/financing becomes increasingly shareholder unfriendly. Really, really, dislike ATMs and incessant capital raises, even if they're building up capacity.
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硅光子+CW主导CPO，激光元件供不应求，2027-28年或现短缺。
@OnurKocerr 不，EML、CW、microLEDs 都是并行路线，硅光子+CW 是 2027-2028 年的主要商业化重点，尤其是共封装光学(CPO)。如果有的话，内存/光互连增加了激光供应商（包括 CW DFB）的总可寻址市场(TAM)。这些已经供不应求。因此，当 2027-2028 年到来时，我们可能会看到另一场类似内存的短缺……鉴于你的前三名未来两年已售罄，且像 $AAOI 这样的独立激光产能上线后正被内部用于光模块而非出售。
英文原文
@OnurKocerr No, EML, CW, microLEDs are all parallel tracks, with silicon phonetics + CW being the main commercial focus for 2027-2028, especially for CPO. If anything, having memory/optical links adds another material TAM increase across laser suppliers including CW DFBs. Which are already in short supply. So we'll likely see another memory style shortage when 2027-2028 comes about... Given your top 3 are already sold out for next 2 years, and independent laser capacity coming online like $AAOI are now being used internally for transceivers rather than being sold.
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光模块需求极高且供应链严重短缺，认为板块跑输荒谬，看好行业前景。
非常积极。我的观点是，近期光模块板块从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE 的跑输表现简直荒谬。 需求可见性……简直高得愚蠢。 AOI：“即使合并 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目，未来三年（至2029年）仍很难满足客户需求。” Elazr 总经理：“整个光供应链正面临严重短缺。”“短缺将持续到未来几年。” Sivers CEO 对磷化铟(InP)激光器需求失衡的说法相同，预计未来3-5年持续。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他评论可以列举更多。 我们甚至还没触及 1.6T、NPO、共封装光学(CPO)规模化以及光存一体（如 SK Hynix 所示）的拐点。 然而行业已受限于 EML/CW 及 PD/TIA/DSP、收发器等上游组件，随着 CPO 规模化，FAU 等也将成为瓶颈…… 我个人对这一切的发展感到极度舒适，只是有点困惑市场为何不会算未来一两年的账。
英文原文
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
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看好 $SIVE 作为高贝塔光通信标的，受益于激光器瓶颈及潜在并购。
@Blazedsin 是的，$SIVE 是我首选的高贝塔（High-Beta）光通信多头标的。 这是一家小型公司，为以下领域供应激光器： - 像 $JBL 这样提供可插拔模块的可插拔模块供应商。 - 与 $POET / O-Net 合作的外部光引擎（ELS）+ 光引擎。 - 与 Ayar 等公司合作的光 I/O 扩展。 - 像 $GFS 这样的光子代工（Photonic Foundries），涵盖 NPO/可插拔/CPO 等所有架构。 随着 Win Semi 的独立连续波（CW）产能投产，正值结构性瓶颈期……纳斯达克上市可能在接下来几个季度实现。 而且 CEO 确实懂行 + 与股东利益一致（在二级市场买入股票），稀释程度低就能完成这一切。 他们还暗示了并购（M&A），这对总可寻址市场（TAM）扩张很理想（看看 2023 年下半年 Cloud Light 并购 Lumentum 后发生了什么）。 然后你有 $MTSI，$AAOI 可能不会实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署（参与者池较小）……行业目前面临连续波（CW）短缺，随后才是量产爬坡。针对中国竞争的监管顺风。 我不确定是不是只有我觉得，他们拥有理想的布局，主要缺点是仅在某个小型瑞典交易所上市，这损害了估值。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yeah, $SIVE is my favorite high-beta optical long. You have a small company supplying lasers for: - Hyperscaler suppliers like $JBL with pluggables. - ELS + optical engines with $POET / O-Net. - Scale up with optical I/O with Ayar and others. - Photonic Foundries like $GFS across all architectures like NPO/pluggables/CPO. with independent CW capacity coming online with Win Semi during a structural bottleneck... NASDAQ listing likely in the next few quarters. And the CEO actually knows what he's doing + aligned with shareholders (in terms of buying stock on the open market), with low dilution to get all of this done. And they hinted at M&A, which is ideal for TAM expansion (look at what happened with Lumentum after Cloud Light H2 2023 M&A). Then you have $MTSI, $AAOI likely no meaningful participating in first-gen CPO deployments (smaller pool of players)... Industry CW shortages currently before volume ramp. Regulation tailwinds targeting Chinese competition. I'm not sure if it's just me but they have the ideal setup, main downside is that it's just listed on some small Swedish exchange and that harms valuations.
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AI光通信供应链严重短缺，光子学或重演存储超级周期。
我们从 $LITE、$MTSI、$AAOI 的财报中均看到激光器/TIA/DSP等存在极端的供需失衡... 现在，Elazr 总经理在其投资者大会上表示： 光模块供应仍远远落后于市场需求，预计 AI 光通信供应链（AI optical supply chain）的紧张局面将持续数年。 - “整个供应链都缺货” - “供应仍远远落后于市场需求” - “短缺将持续到未来几年” “无论是 PCB、载板、激光芯片，还是相关封装产能，只要是 AI 供应链环节，几乎全部短缺。” 当需求可见度延伸至数年且供应链存在瓶颈时： 很难不认为光子学（Photonics）正在重演进入 2027 年的存储超级周期。
英文原文
We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.
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AAOI获美国生产溢价且需求旺盛，CPO将推高利润率，强烈看多。
我在罗森布拉特峰会上关于 $AAOI 的 TLDR 笔记： - 预计因在美国生产 800g/1.6T 光模块而获得溢价（对 ASP/利润率非常有利）。 - 桌上有几份长期协议(LTA)，但不想签署以免产能被其他客户（咳咳 $NVDA）锁定。 - 至少已售罄至明年下半年及以后。（高需求可见度，类似 $LITE） - 已拥有 300-400 mW 激光器。 - 预计一旦共封装光学(CPO) 到来，利润率将超过 40%+（可能是重估估值的最重要因素）。 我无法理解任何人看空这家公司……
英文原文
My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit: - Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins). - Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA). - Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE) - Has 300-400 mW lasers already. - Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating). I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...
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博主希望AAOI回调至80美元加仓，并看好激光、新云及存储板块2027年需求。
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI 其实是我希望股价能回到 80 美元以便我能加仓的那只股票。 激光相关个股在 2027 年全年的需求可见度（Demand Visibility）简直令人难以置信…… 像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）或像 $SNDK 这样的存储（Memory）概念股也是如此。
英文原文
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.
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AI半导体板块分化，光学股复苏节奏各异，预期风险偏好回升将带动反弹。
@pkcapital_ 从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 来看，AI 半导体主题(AI semi theme)正在下跌。高贝塔(higher beta)个股似乎受到的打击最重。从我观察到的光学(optical)个股趋势来看，$LITE / $COHR 恢复最快，其次是规模更大但仍属高贝塔的个股如 $AAOI / $AXTI（恢复了一半）。而像 $SIVE / $POET 这类个股耗时最长。但我认为，当市场风险偏好(risk-on)回升或财报(earnings)推动重新评级(re-ratings)时，会出现更强劲的反弹。
英文原文
@pkcapital_ The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.
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博主分享基于英伟达供应链瓶颈推导高贝塔标的的投资逻辑。
@KhalidIshaq85 至于黄仁勋/英伟达直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial)、$LITE、$COHR 用于光子学(Photonics)领域... - $CCXI (Agility) 用于人形机器人(Humanoids)领域。 我倾向于进行更复杂的投资，这是我的思考过程： -> 我知道共封装光学(CPO)主题即将到来 -> 英伟达锁定了所有连续波(CW)激光器的产能。 -> 也许，$AAOI、$MTSI、$AVGO、$SIVE、$SMTC 是剩余的西方CW玩家。 -> $SIVE 可能是最高贝塔(Beta)的敞口。所以那是我的个人多头头寸。 可能可以对其他主题做类似的分析。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.
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博主认为应跟随Nvidia指引，押注CPO及物理AI供应链。
我觉得AI投资比人们预期的更简单。因为$NVDA和Jensen几乎直接告诉大家未来是什么。但不知为何，几乎每次市场都要等到事情真正发生才认可？ 2025年的Nvidia：大量收购EML和激光产能。 市场当时嗤之以鼻：“光子学是泡沫，像量子计算一样！____公司是骗局，管理层可疑。” 一年后：$LITE +678%，$AAOI +475.12%，$COHR +260.7%，$AXTI +3,843.9%。 _ 2026年的Nvidia： 通过长期协议(LTA)大量收购CW/EML产能。转向800V。明确强调共封装光学(CPO)的转型。指出物理AI(Physical AI)是下一个主题。 市场现在：“CW玩家是 meme 股！800V和CPO短期内不会到来，人形机器人无利可图！” 嗯……我们看看2027年会发生什么。 我认为我会押注Jensen/Nvidia作为领先指标。
英文原文
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.