概念词典 · 产业链
新云算力 Neoclouds
不同于 AWS/Azure/GCP，主营业务就是租 GPU 给 AI 公司的新一代云厂商，2023 年开始崛起。
别名： Neoclouds／ Neocloud／ 新云算力／ 新云／ 新云厂商
是什么
Neoclouds（新云算力） 指 2023 年后崛起的一批专门做 “GPU-as-a-Service” 的公司：
| 公司 | 起家背景 |
|---|---|
| $CRWV CoreWeave | 加密矿工转型，最早大规模采购 H100 |
| $NBIS Nebius | 俄罗斯 Yandex 分拆出来的欧洲算力公司 |
| $IREN IREN | 比特币矿工，部分算力转 AI |
| $CIFR Cipher Mining | 同上 |
| $WULF TeraWulf | 同上 |
| $APLD Applied Digital | 数据中心运营商 |
他们的商业模式核心是 以”先签长约 → 再借钱采购 GPU → 出租回收” 滚动扩张，本质是高杠杆的资本游戏。
为什么这个板块争议大
多头逻辑：AI 算力需求远超传统超大规模厂商扩张能力，独立 Neocloud 有结构性增长空间。
空头逻辑：
- 高杠杆，债务利率敏感
- 客户集中度极高（CoreWeave 大部分收入来自微软）
- GPU 折旧 vs 租赁价格的剪刀差风险
- “Capex 越多估值越高”是经典泡沫节奏
Serenity 的视角
他不全盘看空也不全盘看多——逐家拆财报、看客户结构、看融资条款：
- $NBIS 是他最重仓的 Neocloud，理由：“比 $CRWV 资产负债表更健康、客户更分散”，类比 “$NBIS 之于 $CRWV 等于 $HOOD 之于 $COIN”
- $CRWV 被他多次警示信贷紧缩风险（$APLD 高息债 → 23.5 亿美元高收益债 → 利率 ~10%）
- $IREN 被他点名 “Fake it Until you make it”，警告散户
他常用的判断框架：
- 看客户合同期限：3 年期 vs 5 年期对应不同折现压力
- 看 GPU 利用率披露：粉饰过的数字往往用”capacity booked”代替”capacity used”
- 看建设阶段机构关注度：进入交付期前的”建设阶段”是最危险窗口
提到此概念的推文 (222)
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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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甲骨文GPU高溢价续租证伪快速折旧论，利好AI算力租赁及英伟达。
虽然是周末，但我惊讶于自己错过了 $ORCL 财报中的这一信息。这对 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的影响相当积极，因为：甲骨文表示所有用于续租的 GPU 容量均以高于此前合同 20% 的溢价被重新售出。大部分设备机龄在 4 年以上……因此，这再次证伪了 Burry 关于 GPU 快速折旧的论点。而 $NVDA 和 Neocloud 阵营则赢了。
英文原文
It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.
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博主调侃鞋企转型云厂商的荒谬性，并否认相关说法。
@GGFitim1 绝对不是！但这和那家鞋类公司 $BIRD 变成新云厂商一样让我觉得好笑。
英文原文
@GGFitim1 Definitely not! But this is just as amusing to me as that shoe company $BIRD becoming a neocloud.
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Anthropic签350亿算力大单，前沿模型需求远超供给能力。
Anthropic 与由 $NVDA 支持的 Lambda 签署了价值 350 亿美元的 AI 算力协议。 $HUT / 数据中心，搭配 Lambda / GPU。 前沿模型的需求正在迅速超越生态系统构建容量的能力。 看起来 Anthropic 正在锁定更多算力……下一家被选中的新云/colo 玩家是谁？ https://t.co/49yvFKjr49
英文原文
Anthropic signs a $35B AI compute deal with $NVDA backed Lambda. $HUT / DC, with Lambda / GPUs. Frontier model demand is rapidly outpacing the ecosystem's ability to build capacity. It also looks like Anthropic is securing more compute... Which neocloud/colo player is next? https://t.co/49yvFKjr49
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英伟达投资联发科巩固推理地位，或促使AMD与博通结盟。
没错，$NVDA 投资 35 亿美元进入联发科(Mediatek)。 这感觉像是英伟达(Nvidia)正在扮演下一代专用集成电路(ASIC)赢家如 $MRVL / 联发科(Mediatek)的“造王者”，其二级效应是侵蚀 $AVGO 的地位。 这一策略 playbook 类似于他们此前针对像 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 这样的新云厂商(Neoclouds)（相对于超大规模云项目）所采取的做法。 帮助培育下一代领导者，然后使它们在财务和战略上与英伟达保持一致。 我认为这很精彩，但此类举动可能会促使 $AMD、$AVGO 和某些超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)走得更近。 无论如何，此举巩固了英伟达在推理(inference)领域的战略地位（此前超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 曾是长期的看空论点）。
英文原文
Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek. It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position. Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CRWV (vs. hyperscaler cloud programs) Help create the next leaders, then make them both financially and strategically aligned with Nvidia. I do think it’s brilliant, but moves like this might push $AMD, $AVGO, and certain hyperscalers closer together. Regardless this move cements Nvidia’s strategic position in inference (where hyperscaler ASICs were a former long-term bear case).
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博主调侃Mac Mini微型云公司上市的想法很有趣。
@ren_stocks 如果看到一家基于 Mac Mini 的微型云(neocloud)公司上市，会是个很有趣的想法。
英文原文
@ren_stocks Would be a funny idea to see an IPO of a Mac Mini neocloud
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AI周期虽有局部泡沫，但以NVDA和TSM为核心的结构性趋势将持续加速。
@Omardrisss 更广泛的AI超级周期（如前沿实验室估值、部分Neoclouds）中存在泡沫。偶尔会有些局部回调。但以$NVDA和$TSM为核心的整体主题看起来是结构性的，并将持续加速上行。
英文原文
@Omardrisss There’s bubbles within the broader AI supercycle (eg. frontier lab valuations, some Neoclouds). And some pop here and there. But the overall theme with $NVDA and $TSM in the center of it all looks structural and would keep ramping up.
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博主希望AAOI回调至80美元加仓，并看好激光、新云及存储板块2027年需求。
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI 其实是我希望股价能回到 80 美元以便我能加仓的那只股票。 激光相关个股在 2027 年全年的需求可见度（Demand Visibility）简直令人难以置信…… 像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）或像 $SNDK 这样的存储（Memory）概念股也是如此。
英文原文
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈显现，内存、基板、组件及先进封装需求强劲，行业加速扩张。
一些我感兴趣的要点摘要： - $SNDK 投资者日显示，预计至2030年调整后毛利率达80%，运营利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约50%。 长期协议(LTA)已占2028年产能的2/3。最低合同收入达930亿美元（当前市值约2390亿美元）... 当你的收入/目标预计在未来4年持续至2030年时，很难将其视为周期性股票。 - $CRWV 签署合同，将使用6年前的 $NVDA A100 GPU 直至2029年。 对于 Nebius/Iren 等新型云服务商(Neoclouds)而言，这是利好，因为它反驳了如 Burry 的折旧看空论点。 - 据 UBS 估计，传统 DRAM 毛利率（如美光）到2027年将达到前所未有的95%，超越 HBM 毛利率。 如果预测准确，像南亚(Nanya)/华邦(Winbond)这样的传统/标准 DRAM 玩家应该会“起飞”(go brrrr)。 - 据报道，Anthropic 实现了14倍以上的同比增长，Q2环比收入增长约2.4倍至>115亿美元，预计2028年收入达190-2000亿美元。 你的前沿实验室保持疯狂的增长速度，如果不这样反而令人担忧。 - $NVDA 据报道正洽谈向 SB Energy（软银子公司）投资30亿美元，与 Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、Goldman 等共同推动 >5000 亿美元的算力融资。$NVDA Feynman 预计2028年下半年转向 TSMC A16 + SoIC + 定制 HBM + 共封装光学(CPO)。 每天都有更多英伟达新闻。 - $MSFT Maia 300 讨论了 $TSM 2027年 >30万颗的产能，并计划扩展至100万+。最快9月发布。 $MRVL 对此消息可能更高兴。关于当前情况： - 可能是微软当前 ASIC 扩产的受益者(GUC)。 - 对于亚马逊阵营，像 Alchip（我持有股份）可能在2026年下半年随 $AMZN ASIC 项目扩产... 所以关注超大规模云厂商 ASIC 扩产时间表及其受益者可能是个好主意。 - $TSM 先进封装副总裁表示“行业未来几年可能不仅面临内存短缺，还将面临 ABF 基板供应紧张”... 强调内存和 ABF 基板在未来几年都是瓶颈。 甚至上游 ABF 基板设备供应商也很高兴，例如使用真空层压设备的 Eternal Precision 表示订单激增，工厂满负荷运行，价格上涨20%+。 - $AMAT 预计2026年先进封装收入增长 >70%（此前预期 >50%），并表示客户讨论已延伸至2030年。 （不太熟悉这家公司，但发现其从2025 Q4 $68亿 -> $70.1亿 -> 79.1亿 -> $91.2亿 -> 2026 Q4 $102.5亿的预测增长率很有趣） - Google 在 OCP APAC 表示传统 48V 已无余量。$NVDA 详细说明了2026年下半年兼容 MGX 的 800VDC 机架（时间线，Delta / Lite-On 受益）。 - 除 $SNDK 外，南亚 LTA 覆盖50%产能。CXMT 上月签署多年 DRAM 协议，因此整个内存行业似乎都在效仿三大巨头的剧本。 - 探针卡(Probe cards)仍是瓶颈，MPI(6223)表示其探针卡产能因需求超过供应而保持满负荷。 本周早些时候已覆盖 CW 激光瓶颈（$AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE），那是另一个有趣的点。 - 据 Nichidenbo 称，部分 MLCC/组件交货期已达36周。 你的三星电机、太阳诱电、村田等玩家听到这个消息应该很高兴。 TLDR: AI 供应链疯狂加速(go brrr)。
英文原文
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
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尽管积压订单充足，但高额利息侵蚀现金流，持续看空Coreweave。
@R42t0r 自去年以来，我一直非常明确地看空 $CRWV，相较于 $NBIS 和其他新云厂商。需求并非真正的问题，其超1000亿美元的积压订单，营收及59%的调整后EBITDA利润率看起来不错。但潜在的融资方式真的很糟糕……Coreweave的债务利息（例如Q2利息支出达6.4亿美元）过度侵蚀了自由现金流……作为参考，该数字约占Coreweave 15.1亿美元调整后EBITDA的42%。
英文原文
@R42t0r I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.
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AI产业链各环节财报强劲，需求与订单爆发式增长。
今天AI主题的财报简直疯狂，涉及$CRWV、$SMCI和$LITE。 Coreweave：荒谬的~1040亿美元+积压订单，这还不包括Q3初新增的250亿美元+客户协议。 Neoclouds（如Nebius、Iren等）的计算需求传导效应巨大。 Supermicro：荒谬的650-720亿美元营收指引，新增600亿美元+订单... AI数据中心建设的传导效应极其巨大。 Lumentum：营收从8.08亿 -> 10.1亿 -> 12.5亿美元攀升，运营利润率逐季增长。 光子学玩家一直在疯狂印钞。 简而言之：AI建设的每一层都在疯狂爆发，且体现在财报中。
英文原文
Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
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OCP峰会及财报周催化光模块与机器人板块，Unitree IPO或带动机器人行情。
近期的一些事件： - 明天是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar、Lightmatter、$AMD、$NVDA），你的共封装光学(CPO)概念股正在发布公告/更新。 这应该是某些光模块玩家的催化剂。 - 财报周：$ASTS、$RKLB今天发布（太空），$LITE周二（光子学），$NBIS在本周中段（Neocloud），还有更多。 - Unitree IPO认购今天开启，预计本月上市。 如果开盘良好，应是人形机器人+机器人板块的潜在催化剂，例如 $CCXI。 接下来的一周很有趣。
英文原文
Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
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博主转向关注上游瓶颈，预计能源和新云将因算力短缺跑赢。
@Schulz_Research 态势感知/Leopold 关于美国向推理(推理)和巨大能源需求转移的观点完全正确。我在2025年曾对 $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 等新型云服务商(新云)持有类似论点。但我个人更转向关注上游瓶颈(上游瓶颈)和网络(网络)。不幸的是，基金未能完全熬过回撤。我们在内存集中度(内存集中度)上有重叠，但鉴于算力/容量短缺，我预计来自 $BE、$TE 的能源/电网或如 $SHAZ/$IREN 的新云将跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@Schulz_Research Situational Awareness / Leopold was completely right in terms of US shifting more toward inference + large energy demand. I had a similar thesis with Neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, and others last year in 2025. But shifted more towards upstream bottlenecks + networking personally. It's just a little unfortunate the fund couldn't fully survive the drawdown. We did overlap in memory concentration but energy/grid from $BE, $TE, or neoclouds like $SHAZ / $IREN but I'd expect them to outperform given compute/capacity shortages.
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四大云厂商上调Capex指引，看好上游半导体及AI供应链瓶颈环节重估。
作为业绩复盘：$AMZN、$META、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 将 2026 年联合资本支出(Capex)指引上调至约 7200-7450 亿美元。此前指引为 6950-7250 亿美元。亚马逊：2200 亿；谷歌：1950-2050 亿；Meta：1300-1450 亿；微软：1750 亿。我们已看到显著的降杠杆和零售/机构保证金清算（可能还会持续，谁知道呢）。但中长期来看，我不太明白为何有人看空上游半导体或新云厂商。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都指出了算力短缺、云需求上升+定价权增强，或增加芯片/网络支出。我对许多上游半导体供应链的“瓶颈”论点是：当数万亿美元资本流入磷化铟(InP)衬底或存储（此前均被视为廉价大宗商品）甚至能源领域时。许多此前在电信周期中被视为无用甚至“卖马桶”的当前 AI 概念股。当拐点到来且资本支出流入其资产负债表时，估值将重估。正如过去几年 $NVDA GPU、今年存储、未来几年 CPU/MLCC、2027 年共封装光学(CPO)、2027 年玻璃衬底、2027 年 800V 等所见。
英文原文
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.
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质疑超大规模云厂商算力短缺说法，认为新云已锁定GW级容量。
@og_mcleod 抛售新云厂商，尽管它们已锁定GW级算力容量…… 如果超大规模云服务商整体存在算力短缺，这对我来说将是一个谜。
英文原文
@og_mcleod Selling off neoclouds, that has secured GW-scale compute capacity... While there's hyperscaler-wide compute shortages will be an engima to me.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出强劲，计算资源稀缺，AI抛售被夸大。
以下是来自 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会议的一些要点： 微软： - 尽管资本支出增加，预计2027年将实现自由现金流(FCF)转正（这对由运营收入资助的AI建设极为有利） - “自由现金流为196亿美元，反映了更高的资本支出” - 季度资本支出为410亿美元，其中约2/3为“短期资产，主要是CPU和GPU” - 预计下一季度资本支出将超过500亿美元 - 资本支出指引约为1750亿美元，2027年资本支出大致相同。支出计划不变且符合预期。 - “将数据中心的预计使用寿命从15年延长至25年” - “我们将成为首批部署基于 $AMD Helios 和 $NVDA Vera Rubin 的下一代机架级AI基础设施的云提供商之一” - “客户需求持续超过可用容量” Meta： - 资本支出1300-1450亿美元（范围收窄），此前为1250-1450亿美元。 - Meta 收到的报价比其支付价格有“显著溢价”（计算资源稀缺，对 $IREN / $NBIS 等新云厂商有利） - 预计大部分计算资源（如埃尔帕索的1GW数据中心）将用于开发内部模型。 - Meta 在其核心业务中有多个投资回报率(ROI)为正的额外计算用途（内部使用，非Meta Compute） - “最后，我们认为整体行业产能将在可预见的未来保持紧张” - “历史上行业对AI采用浪潮的建设不足，使得现有产能，包括我们自己的，极具价值” - Susan Li 总结： - $MSFT 和 $GOOGL 主要在保持自由现金流为正或通过运营收入的同时，维持AI资本支出建设。 - $META 指出可用计算资源至少到2027年都远低于需求。$MSFT 也指出计算需求远超供应。 - 三大超大规模云服务商的资本支出基本与Google上调资本支出数字一致。 现在的AI抛售似乎被极度夸大了，超大规模云服务商继续按预期进行资本支出（微软保持自由现金流为正）甚至像 $GOOGL 那样上调。 计算资源稀缺在所有超大规模云服务商的财报电话会议中可见。
英文原文
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
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博主认为AI需求加速信号明确，短期波动属去杠杆，看好光互连及存储板块。
我个人认为这是极短期的去杠杆行为，导致许多个股超跌。 - $BE 和 $TER 公布了超预期的业绩，Bloom 报告营收同比增长 166% + 利润率扩张 + 上调 2026 年指引... Teradyne 报告营收同比增长 104%，每股收益增长 300%+。 - 中国领先的光学玩家公布了惊人的初步财报，对西方光子学板块有极强的映射效应。 - 我认为财报季倾向于提醒市场 AI 加速仍在继续。我预计 $LITE、$SNDK / SK Hynix 以及板块龙头 ERs 将继续这一趋势。 - 但感觉市场更多是在奖励现有的加速，而非基于短期修正（如 $AMKR 所见）的未来一年增长。 - 总之，对我跟踪的主题来说看起来非常积极。 - 然后你有 $GOOGL 资本支出上调至 1950-2050 亿美元，这通常是超大规模云厂商最大的 AI 需求信号。 - 预测市场显示下次 FOMC 会议利率不变的概率为 77%。特朗普政府周一呼吁美联储降息。 - 所以今年三次加息的恐惧似乎有些夸大。 - 从 DUV 到 $CXMT 产能过剩的中国恐惧也被极度夸大。我们在每个行业都见过这种情况，直到人们记住激光或 HBM 瓶颈存在是有原因的。 - 就个人想法而言，看到所有东西一起涨跌是不健康的，尤其是这些主题。但我个人并不担心，因为我对我的持仓有充分信心，特别是像 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 这样的光互连领域。 - $META 计算和 $GOOGL GCP 利润率/增长显示出对 $NBIS 及类似新云业务模式的需求增加。 - $META 及其他超大规模云厂商关于与 $SNDK 和三星/SK Hynix、$MU 的长期协议（LTAs）的笔记指向结构性内存需求。 - 可以一直列举下去... - 但当 Jim Cramer 告诉每个保证金交易员在开盘时“全部卖出”，而新闻说存在 AI 泡沫时。 - 我讨厌别人说“它在跌所以卖出”。我相信重要的是看加速的营收/每股收益增长。如果营收加速与超大规模云厂商资本支出保持一致，那么该逻辑依然成立。 - 总之：我看到了 AI 需求/营收加速的迹象，超大规模云厂商资本支出是最重要的跟踪指标之一。 - 我猜我们会看到该主题广泛复苏。但我无法预测具体发生在哪一小时、哪一天或哪一周。
英文原文
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
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AI全产业链普涨，博主质疑克莱默效应是否驱动整体行情。
铠侠(Kioxia)的存储板块收盘大涨17.18%。三星(Samsung)上涨6.15%。 来自 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 的光网络板块显示出复苏迹象，均上涨4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的“新云”(Neoclouds)板块盘前均上涨4%以上。 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL 均上涨4%以上。 “克莱默效应”(Cramer effect)对整个AI交易都有效吗？
英文原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
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英伟达披露持有Nebius 9.3%股份，提振市场情绪。
如果你好奇为什么 $NBIS 盘后上涨。 $NVDA 通过 SEC 文件披露其持有 Nebius 9.3% 的实益所有权。 这其实不算太新，因为追溯至英伟达现有的 119 万股持股加上约 21 万股的 20 亿美元预付费认股权证（Pre-funded Warrant）。 但英伟达作为 Neocloud 领导者的主要股东，对情绪面是大利好。
英文原文
If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.
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Neoclouds/Colo板块受新合同及算力短缺催化强劲复苏
$IREN 因将新 AI 云合同带来的 ARR 目标从此前水平上调至 40 亿美元以上，上涨 19.69%。其客户群现包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 因一份 15 年期 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议上涨 10.45%。 $CIFR 上涨 16.76% $CLSK 上涨 13.7% $WYFI 上涨 9.18% $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在慢慢磨（反应滞后）。 但看起来，随着 Kimi 算力短缺新闻和新合同等新催化剂的出现，Neoclouds/Colo 玩家正在强劲复苏。
英文原文
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
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META租赁算力验证Neocloud模式，超大规模云厂商在照搬作业。
$META 正在洽谈以 100 亿美元交易向 Anthropic 租赁算力。看来他们看到了 $SPCX 450 亿美元算力交易的盈利性。但这进一步验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等 Neocloud 商业模式的有效性，如果超大规模云服务商都在照搬他们的作业。来源：NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
英文原文
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
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博主分享AI瓶颈板块近50%回撤，坚信长期逻辑未变并坚持持有。
感觉糟透了，近期崩盘后本月最大回撤达-49.4%。 我的投资组合主要集中在人工智能(AI)的卡脖子环节和瓶颈领域。 包括存储、光子学、机器人和上游半导体（使用杠杆），这些板块的贝塔值通常高于其他板块。但近期因崩盘已降低杠杆。 我看到很多人在嘲笑这次下跌或AI概念股，声称显而易见： - “AI是泡沫” - “存储/韩综指是泡沫” - “光子学是泡沫” - “人形机器人不会有前途” - “新云厂商将被Meta等超大规模云厂商取代” 还有一堆散户和机器人喊着“清仓，永远别想恢复”。 但我坚信所有这些主题都有结构性收入增长或技术变革作为支撑。 此前当政府威胁实施全球关税时，我也经历过类似的回撤，随后市场实现了复苏。 我个人拥有更长的投资视野和比他人更高的波动容忍度，以观察事态如何发展。 特别是考虑到许多散户以周为单位看待问题：不，如果我将收入拐点预测在2027年下半年，而现在才2026年，我的投资逻辑并没有错。 总之，短期感觉不好，但为了透明度还是想分享一下。
英文原文
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
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NBIS早盘暴跌后空头言论消失，暗示市场情绪反转。
@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco 是的，$NBIS 早盘的跌幅简直离谱。当时有很多做空者在四处发布看空 Nebius 和 neocloud 模型的观点。现在那些帖子似乎都消失得无影无踪了，哈哈。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco Yep $NBIS early day drawdowns were insane. There were short sellers bear posting Nebius and neocloud models left and right. All of those seem to have vanished together lol
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WULF签190亿DC租赁，利好新云托管板块。
哇，$WULF 今天与 Anthropic 签署了一份价值 190 亿美元的 数据中心(DC) 租赁协议。这很可能对 新云/数据中心托管(Neocloud/Colo) 板块构成非常积极的 顺风(tailwind)。
英文原文
Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today. Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector. https://t.co/82tncsG3us
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Anthropic澳洲建厂计划印证Neoclouds布局逻辑
泄露的 Anthropic 文档显示，其计划从澳大利亚获取 1.4GW 的容量，金额约为 216 亿美元。 最近 $IREN、$SHAZ 和其他 Neoclouds（新云服务商）一直在澳大利亚建设主权数据中心 (Sovereign DCs)。 我想，就像很多事情一样，在连接性方面开始更有道理了？ （披露：无持仓）
英文原文
Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B. Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise? (disclosure: no https://t.co/V5LzknfjPP
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富国银行认为Meta出售多余算力验证了AI需求强劲及新云服务商逻辑。
富国银行：$META 计划出售多余算力，这是关于底层需求和 AI 单位经济学的积极信号。 “尽管有此转变，我们不预计 Meta 的资本支出会缩减，或整体算力需求降低。” 关于新云服务商(Neoclouds)：富国银行认为这验证了 https://t.co/ZUV3ZvOQuA
英文原文
Wells Fargo: $META intent to sell excess compute is a positive signal around underlying demand and unit economics of AI. “Despite this shift, we don’t expect a pullback in Meta’s capex or that overall compute needs are lower” Regarding Neoclouds: WF thinks it validated the https://t.co/ZUV3ZvOQuA
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用鸡肉比喻解释为何市场抛售上游供应商而利好下游新云厂商。
基本上，现在的盘前交易就像是以更简单的术语来看待像 $NBIS 这样的新云厂商(Neoclouds)。 Costco：卖5美元的鸡肉。 沃尔玛：大量购买这些烤鸡，并将多余的作为“沃尔玛鸡肉”出售。 股市：抛售 Costco。
英文原文
Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms. Costco: sells $5 chickens. Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”. Stock Market: sells off Costco.
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推测NBIS等新云厂商是某项业务背后的主要驱动力。
@Deebeeng10 像 $NBIS 这样的新云厂商(Next-Gen Cloud Providers)可能是推动这一业务的主力，哈哈。
英文原文
@Deebeeng10 The Neoclouds like $NBIS are probably the ones powering this offering lol.
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谷歌因算力限制Meta，致Meta转向Neoclouds且Gemini被削弱。
看来我们终于找到为什么 $META 在三月与 $NBIS 等 Neoclouds 签署巨额协议的原因了…… 以及为什么 Gemini 被大幅削弱。 据报道，$GOOGL 因算力限制，在 2026 年 3 月限制了 Meta 的容量。 谷歌 CEO 在上次财报中关于计算 https://t.co/LXGg8md2ur
英文原文
Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March... And why Gemini got super nerfed. $GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints. Google's CEO said from last earnings computing https://t.co/LXGg8md2ur
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批评持有IREN导致错过AI及NBIS等板块行情
我好奇错过人工智能超级周期（AI Supercycle）的行情是什么感觉…… 伴随着光子学（Photonics）、存储（Memory）， 甚至像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）。 因为你正忙着死扛（Bagholding）那些看似无尽的 $60 亿活跃提款机（Active ATMs）$IREN。
英文原文
I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd