$ARM
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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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博主列出过往持仓的年初至今表现，反问质疑者是否改变看法。
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr 你可以看看我今年早些时候或去年建仓的以下股票的年初至今(YTD)表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU。 然后告诉我你是否还坚持之前的看法。
英文原文
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.
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博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
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称ARM大盘股三倍收益但遗憾没用期权。
回复 @ThanksTesla：恭喜。是啊……我应该做期权。 不过事后看，我大概还是会只买股票。 像 $ARM 这种大盘股不开杠杆拿到3倍，感觉还是有点难受。
英文原文
@ThanksTesla congrats. yeah... i should have done options. In hindsight, probably would have done shares only again though. just feels bad to get a 3x on a large-cap like $ARM on no leverage.
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复盘ARM两个月半从134涨到413，遗憾没买期权。
$ARM 简直离谱。 2个半月内从134美元直奔413美元。 早知道应该买期权，那就不是只有3倍，而是上涨几千个百分点。
英文原文
$ARM is just ridiculous. $134 straight to $413 in just 2 1/2 months. Should have went options, would have been up thousands of percent instead of only 3x. https://t.co/tF335Qp656
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复盘ARM从134涨到354，并关注NVDA发布ARM处理器。
难以相信 $ARM 在我建仓后直接从134美元涨到354美元。 这些名字很酷的 AI CPU 带来约150亿美元年收入，当时看起来有点疯狂。 在 Computex 上，$NVDA 看起来也将发布新的 ARM 架构处理器。 Counterpoint 显示它们……
英文原文
Can’t believe $ARM went straight from $134 to $354 when I took positions. The ~$15B annual revenue coming from these cool name AI CPUs seemed a bit insane at the time. At Computex, looks like $NVDA is unveiling new ARM based processors too. Counterpoint them shows them https://t.co/47B0u9OWkq
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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ARM从135以来短期翻倍，3000亿公司也实现三位数回报。
现在 $ARM 这家3000亿美元以上公司，自135美元以来短时间内也达到三位数回报…… 名字很酷的 CPU go brrrr？
英文原文
And now $ARM, a $300B+ company, hit triple digit returns in a short timeframe since $135… Cool name CPUs go brrrr? https://t.co/67Zz6EWfnL
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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回复网友关于SIVE如何通过ADR转换在美国市场交易的问题
@xuefeng_huang 如果$SIVE走ADR（美国存托凭证）路线，你可以从瑞典进行ADR转换，它就会开始在美国市场上交易，类似$ARM。
英文原文
@xuefeng_huang If $SIVE goes the ADR route you can do an ADR conversion from Sweden to US and it will just start trading on US markets like $ARM.
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ARM 再次进入自己高收益持仓名单
我猜在财报后，当 $ARM 碰到 268 美元的时候…… $ARM 现在已经成为我年内第 18 只 100% 到 1000%+ 的高收益个股了吗？ 老实说我都数不清了。像 $LPK、$SIMO 和 $HPS.A 也都已经快到了。 但感觉在 X 上，真正有我这种“收益 + 原始 thesis 帖子”完整记录的人，可能没几个。
英文原文
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
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提醒别人最近一个月 Intel AMD ARM 都在涨
@hiro_invst 你没看见这一个月的 $INTC、$AMD、$ARM 吗？
英文原文
@hiro_invst Have you not seen $INTC $AMD $ARM this past month?
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ARM 在 1 个半月里接近三位数回报
$ARM 这阵子看起来玩得挺开心。 自从我按 CPU 预测做多它之后，1 个半月里已经接近三位数回报了。 市场真的很喜欢 AI CPU，对吧？ https://t.co/hgWPOB6tIN
英文原文
$ARM seems to be having a fun time. Almost triple digit return in 1 1/2 months since I went long on their CPU projections. Markets really like AI CPUs huh? https://t.co/hgWPOB6tIN
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对 Spirit Airlines 退市感到可惜并顺带谈监管
我还是不敢相信 Spirit Airlines 要倒了。 这很糟，因为现在更少人有动力去压成本了。 封锁 $ARM 和 $NVDA 收购案和真的去保护竞争，是两回事。
英文原文
Still can’t believe Spirit Airlines is shutting down. Very harmful, now there’s less incentives to cut costs. There’s a difference between blocking $ARM and $NVDA acquisition (actual antitrust). And an Airline rescuing Spirit from bankruptcy. Thanks Senator Warren. https://t.co/BTn9D61eek
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总结自己这个月的收益表现
我这个月收益还不错。 从 $AAOI 涨 100% 到 $SOI 涨 153.9%。 $SNDK +70%、$INTC +97.7%、$MRVL +54%、$ARM +41.5% 对我个人来说都算跑输。 但整体看还是挺猛的。
英文原文
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
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ARM 其实涨很多了
@__visionxry__ 兄弟，$ARM 这个月都涨 45% 了，你还在抱怨什么哈哈
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Bro $ARM is up 45% this month, what are you complaining about lol
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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提过很多美国名字
@coreyagonzalez 我最近提过我喜欢的 30 只美国名字。很多 thesis 帖都在聊日本或台湾名字，但我也经常聊美国股票，比如 $AMSC、最近的 $ARM，或者像 $NBIS 和 $RDDT 这类。
英文原文
@coreyagonzalez I mentioned 30 US names that I liked recently. A lot of my thesis posts talk about Japanese or Taiwanese names, but I talk about US stocks a lot like $AMSC, $ARM recently or stuff like $NBIS and $RDDT?
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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别晒自己的年内收益了
现在大家都在分享自己在 $MRVL、$INTC 到 $ARM 上涨之后的年内收益…… 我想我还是先不晒自己的，免得让别人心情好点？
英文原文
Everyone’s out there sharing new YTDs after $MRVL, $INTC to $ARM went up… I think I’ll stop sharing mine just to let others feel better?
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ARM 一天涨 12%
兄弟，这才刚过一天和 $ARM。 一家 2000 亿美元以上的公司怎么会涨 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
英文原文
Bruh it’s only been one day with $ARM. How does a $200B+ company go up 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
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ARM 因 CPU 瓶颈受益
在新的瓶颈重新回到 CPU 的背景下，我看好 $ARM。微软的材料里也显示，编排 / RAG 这类东西需要 CPU。 但我预测本地推理的一部分会越来越多地由 CPU 来处理……随着 Gemma 之类的模型未来变得更轻量。 不是每个机器人都需要解开宇宙的奥秘。 数据中心会需要海量的传统 CPU 算力（AWS Graviton、$GOOGL Axion 和 $MSFT Cobalt 都是 ARM 架构）。 $META 和 OpenAI 也是 AGI CPU 的买家。 而 AI 还会继续下沉到边缘端。 150 亿美元的年收入目标……现在看起来越来越合理了？
英文原文
Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs. But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get lightweight in the future. Not every robot needs to be able to solve the mysteries of the universe. Data centers will need an astronomical amount of traditional CPU compute (AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt), which are all ARM based. $META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU. And AI will flow down to edge. $15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?
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ARM 股价涨得不错
@beauty_oe $ARM の株価が大きく上がってよかったです！AI向けCPUの予測が凄まじかったので、いずれ株価もそれに追いつくだろうと思っていました。
英文原文
@beauty_oe $ARM の株価が大きく上がってよかったです！AI向けCPUの予測が凄まじかったので、いずれ株価もそれに追いつくだろうと思っていました。
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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认为美国应先稳固盟友供应链，再统一武器化对抗中俄。
到底是谁在写这些东西？ 我们不需要对日本、欧洲或韩国这些盟友施加更多杠杆。 我们需要把杠杆用在俄罗斯和中国身上。 - 在东南亚，老挝超过 40% 的加油站已经关闭， - 柬埔寨和泰国已经开始限量和价格管制， - 印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉都在面对价格上涨和紧急节约， - 韩国 / 日本仍然暴露在供应中断风险里。 中国现在完全可以从俄罗斯拿石油，而俄罗斯的出口管制还被解除了…… 而中国现在的做法就像一战时美国那样在做军火商。 为什么我们要为了帮助俄罗斯 / 以色列，反过来搞砸我们自己的供应链？ 他们之所以叫盟友是有原因的，我们不需要再对他们施加更多杠杆。 如果你真想把这套东西武器化： -> 先确保自己的供应链，先把资金投到越南 / 南美等地的稀土和前驱材料上 -> 再把资金投到韩国 / 日本 / 加拿大 / 美国的精炼加工上 -> 先在委内瑞拉开发原油 / 加工能力 -> 再建立替代贸易路线： 这至少要 3-5 年。 然后你才可以去轰炸什么、去威胁欧洲的 $ASML、日本的 $ARM、美国的 $NVDA、台湾的 $TSM 这类对中国 / 俄罗斯的瓶颈。 总之： 美国优先依赖于： - 在泰国做好自身组装供应链， - 在韩国做好半导体， - 在日本做好化工， - 在台湾做好晶圆代工， - 在加拿大做好稀土， - 在欧洲做好高端设备， 还有其他环节，来让美国更强。 然后再把这一切统一武器化去对付我们的敌人。 你不能一边把我们自己的供应链和全球关系全炸了，一边又说美国正在变得更强大吧？
英文原文
Who is even writing this? We don't need more leverage over our allies like Japan, Europe, or South Korea. We need them over Russia and China. - In SEA over 40% of gas stations in Laos have closed, - Cambodia and Thailand have started rationing and price controls - India, Pakistan and Bangladesh face rising prices and emergency conservation - SK/Japan remain exposed to disruptions. China can get just get their oil from Russia. And Russia got their export control removed... And China is playing arms dealer like what US did in WW1 right now. Why are we screwing over our own supply chains to help Russia/Israel out? They're called allies for a reason, and we don't need more leverage over them. If you really wanted to weaponize this: -> Secure supply chains first, pour funding into rare earths/precursors like Vietnam/South America and other places. -> Pour funding into refinery processing from SK/Japan/Canada/US -> Develop crude/processing in Venezuela First -> Build out alternative trade route: Which will take 3-5 years min. Then you can go blowing stuff up then go threatening European $ASML, Japanese $ARM, US $NVDA, Taiwan $TSM type chokepoints over China/Russia all together. Again: America First relies on: -securing own supply chains in Assembly Thailand, -Semiconductors in South Korea, -Chemical from Japan, -Foundries in Taiwan, -Rare Earths from Canada, - high-end equipment from Europe and others to make United States stronger. Then you weaponize that all together against our enemies. You can't just blow OUR OWN SUPPLY CHAINS and Relations around the world up then say America is becoming more dominant?
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认为 SIVE 不太可能被 ARM 并购。
@VJNCapital 不会。$SIVE Photonics 作为上游光学组件供应商规模太小了，所以大概率会被放行。 $ARM 的体量则太大，会引发反垄断问题。
英文原文
@VJNCapital Nope. $SIVE photonics is too small as an upstream optical component supplier so would likely pass. $ARM would raise antitrust due to size.