$ARM
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称ARM大盘股三倍收益但遗憾没用期权。
回复 @ThanksTesla：恭喜。是啊……我应该做期权。 不过事后看，我大概还是会只买股票。 像 $ARM 这种大盘股不开杠杆拿到3倍，感觉还是有点难受。
英文原文
@ThanksTesla congrats. yeah... i should have done options. In hindsight, probably would have done shares only again though. just feels bad to get a 3x on a large-cap like $ARM on no leverage.
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复盘ARM两个月半从134涨到413，遗憾没买期权。
$ARM 简直离谱。 2个半月内从134美元直奔413美元。 早知道应该买期权，那就不是只有3倍，而是上涨几千个百分点。
英文原文
$ARM is just ridiculous. $134 straight to $413 in just 2 1/2 months. Should have went options, would have been up thousands of percent instead of only 3x. https://t.co/tF335Qp656
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复盘ARM从134涨到354，并关注NVDA发布ARM处理器。
难以相信 $ARM 在我建仓后直接从134美元涨到354美元。 这些名字很酷的 AI CPU 带来约150亿美元年收入，当时看起来有点疯狂。 在 Computex 上，$NVDA 看起来也将发布新的 ARM 架构处理器。 Counterpoint 显示它们……
英文原文
Can’t believe $ARM went straight from $134 to $354 when I took positions. The ~$15B annual revenue coming from these cool name AI CPUs seemed a bit insane at the time. At Computex, looks like $NVDA is unveiling new ARM based processors too. Counterpoint them shows them https://t.co/47B0u9OWkq
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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ARM从135以来短期翻倍，3000亿公司也实现三位数回报。
现在 $ARM 这家3000亿美元以上公司，自135美元以来短时间内也达到三位数回报…… 名字很酷的 CPU go brrrr？
英文原文
And now $ARM, a $300B+ company, hit triple digit returns in a short timeframe since $135… Cool name CPUs go brrrr? https://t.co/67Zz6EWfnL
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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回复网友关于SIVE如何通过ADR转换在美国市场交易的问题
@xuefeng_huang 如果$SIVE走ADR（美国存托凭证）路线，你可以从瑞典进行ADR转换，它就会开始在美国市场上交易，类似$ARM。
英文原文
@xuefeng_huang If $SIVE goes the ADR route you can do an ADR conversion from Sweden to US and it will just start trading on US markets like $ARM.
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ARM 再次进入自己高收益持仓名单
我猜在财报后，当 $ARM 碰到 268 美元的时候…… $ARM 现在已经成为我年内第 18 只 100% 到 1000%+ 的高收益个股了吗？ 老实说我都数不清了。像 $LPK、$SIMO 和 $HPS.A 也都已经快到了。 但感觉在 X 上，真正有我这种“收益 + 原始 thesis 帖子”完整记录的人，可能没几个。
英文原文
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
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提醒别人最近一个月 Intel AMD ARM 都在涨
@hiro_invst 你没看见这一个月的 $INTC、$AMD、$ARM 吗？
英文原文
@hiro_invst Have you not seen $INTC $AMD $ARM this past month?
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ARM 在 1 个半月里接近三位数回报
$ARM 这阵子看起来玩得挺开心。 自从我按 CPU 预测做多它之后，1 个半月里已经接近三位数回报了。 市场真的很喜欢 AI CPU，对吧？ https://t.co/hgWPOB6tIN
英文原文
$ARM seems to be having a fun time. Almost triple digit return in 1 1/2 months since I went long on their CPU projections. Markets really like AI CPUs huh? https://t.co/hgWPOB6tIN
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对 Spirit Airlines 退市感到可惜并顺带谈监管
我还是不敢相信 Spirit Airlines 要倒了。 这很糟，因为现在更少人有动力去压成本了。 封锁 $ARM 和 $NVDA 收购案和真的去保护竞争，是两回事。
英文原文
Still can’t believe Spirit Airlines is shutting down. Very harmful, now there’s less incentives to cut costs. There’s a difference between blocking $ARM and $NVDA acquisition (actual antitrust). And an Airline rescuing Spirit from bankruptcy. Thanks Senator Warren. https://t.co/BTn9D61eek
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总结自己这个月的收益表现
我这个月收益还不错。 从 $AAOI 涨 100% 到 $SOI 涨 153.9%。 $SNDK +70%、$INTC +97.7%、$MRVL +54%、$ARM +41.5% 对我个人来说都算跑输。 但整体看还是挺猛的。
英文原文
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
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ARM 其实涨很多了
@__visionxry__ 兄弟，$ARM 这个月都涨 45% 了，你还在抱怨什么哈哈
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Bro $ARM is up 45% this month, what are you complaining about lol
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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提过很多美国名字
@coreyagonzalez 我最近提过我喜欢的 30 只美国名字。很多 thesis 帖都在聊日本或台湾名字，但我也经常聊美国股票，比如 $AMSC、最近的 $ARM，或者像 $NBIS 和 $RDDT 这类。
英文原文
@coreyagonzalez I mentioned 30 US names that I liked recently. A lot of my thesis posts talk about Japanese or Taiwanese names, but I talk about US stocks a lot like $AMSC, $ARM recently or stuff like $NBIS and $RDDT?
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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别晒自己的年内收益了
现在大家都在分享自己在 $MRVL、$INTC 到 $ARM 上涨之后的年内收益…… 我想我还是先不晒自己的，免得让别人心情好点？
英文原文
Everyone’s out there sharing new YTDs after $MRVL, $INTC to $ARM went up… I think I’ll stop sharing mine just to let others feel better?
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ARM 一天涨 12%
兄弟，这才刚过一天和 $ARM。 一家 2000 亿美元以上的公司怎么会涨 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
英文原文
Bruh it’s only been one day with $ARM. How does a $200B+ company go up 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c
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ARM 因 CPU 瓶颈受益
在新的瓶颈重新回到 CPU 的背景下，我看好 $ARM。微软的材料里也显示，编排 / RAG 这类东西需要 CPU。 但我预测本地推理的一部分会越来越多地由 CPU 来处理……随着 Gemma 之类的模型未来变得更轻量。 不是每个机器人都需要解开宇宙的奥秘。 数据中心会需要海量的传统 CPU 算力（AWS Graviton、$GOOGL Axion 和 $MSFT Cobalt 都是 ARM 架构）。 $META 和 OpenAI 也是 AGI CPU 的买家。 而 AI 还会继续下沉到边缘端。 150 亿美元的年收入目标……现在看起来越来越合理了？
英文原文
Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs. But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get lightweight in the future. Not every robot needs to be able to solve the mysteries of the universe. Data centers will need an astronomical amount of traditional CPU compute (AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt), which are all ARM based. $META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU. And AI will flow down to edge. $15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?
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ARM 股价涨得不错
@beauty_oe $ARM の株価が大きく上がってよかったです！AI向けCPUの予測が凄まじかったので、いずれ株価もそれに追いつくだろうと思っていました。
英文原文
@beauty_oe $ARM の株価が大きく上がってよかったです！AI向けCPUの予測が凄まじかったので、いずれ株価もそれに追いつくだろうと思っていました。
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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认为美国应先稳固盟友供应链，再统一武器化对抗中俄。
到底是谁在写这些东西？ 我们不需要对日本、欧洲或韩国这些盟友施加更多杠杆。 我们需要把杠杆用在俄罗斯和中国身上。 - 在东南亚，老挝超过 40% 的加油站已经关闭， - 柬埔寨和泰国已经开始限量和价格管制， - 印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉都在面对价格上涨和紧急节约， - 韩国 / 日本仍然暴露在供应中断风险里。 中国现在完全可以从俄罗斯拿石油，而俄罗斯的出口管制还被解除了…… 而中国现在的做法就像一战时美国那样在做军火商。 为什么我们要为了帮助俄罗斯 / 以色列，反过来搞砸我们自己的供应链？ 他们之所以叫盟友是有原因的，我们不需要再对他们施加更多杠杆。 如果你真想把这套东西武器化： -> 先确保自己的供应链，先把资金投到越南 / 南美等地的稀土和前驱材料上 -> 再把资金投到韩国 / 日本 / 加拿大 / 美国的精炼加工上 -> 先在委内瑞拉开发原油 / 加工能力 -> 再建立替代贸易路线： 这至少要 3-5 年。 然后你才可以去轰炸什么、去威胁欧洲的 $ASML、日本的 $ARM、美国的 $NVDA、台湾的 $TSM 这类对中国 / 俄罗斯的瓶颈。 总之： 美国优先依赖于： - 在泰国做好自身组装供应链， - 在韩国做好半导体， - 在日本做好化工， - 在台湾做好晶圆代工， - 在加拿大做好稀土， - 在欧洲做好高端设备， 还有其他环节，来让美国更强。 然后再把这一切统一武器化去对付我们的敌人。 你不能一边把我们自己的供应链和全球关系全炸了，一边又说美国正在变得更强大吧？
英文原文
Who is even writing this? We don't need more leverage over our allies like Japan, Europe, or South Korea. We need them over Russia and China. - In SEA over 40% of gas stations in Laos have closed, - Cambodia and Thailand have started rationing and price controls - India, Pakistan and Bangladesh face rising prices and emergency conservation - SK/Japan remain exposed to disruptions. China can get just get their oil from Russia. And Russia got their export control removed... And China is playing arms dealer like what US did in WW1 right now. Why are we screwing over our own supply chains to help Russia/Israel out? They're called allies for a reason, and we don't need more leverage over them. If you really wanted to weaponize this: -> Secure supply chains first, pour funding into rare earths/precursors like Vietnam/South America and other places. -> Pour funding into refinery processing from SK/Japan/Canada/US -> Develop crude/processing in Venezuela First -> Build out alternative trade route: Which will take 3-5 years min. Then you can go blowing stuff up then go threatening European $ASML, Japanese $ARM, US $NVDA, Taiwan $TSM type chokepoints over China/Russia all together. Again: America First relies on: -securing own supply chains in Assembly Thailand, -Semiconductors in South Korea, -Chemical from Japan, -Foundries in Taiwan, -Rare Earths from Canada, - high-end equipment from Europe and others to make United States stronger. Then you weaponize that all together against our enemies. You can't just blow OUR OWN SUPPLY CHAINS and Relations around the world up then say America is becoming more dominant?
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认为 SIVE 不太可能被 ARM 并购。
@VJNCapital 不会。$SIVE Photonics 作为上游光学组件供应商规模太小了，所以大概率会被放行。 $ARM 的体量则太大，会引发反垄断问题。
英文原文
@VJNCapital Nope. $SIVE photonics is too small as an upstream optical component supplier so would likely pass. $ARM would raise antitrust due to size.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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分享一个股票配置框架示例：分高增长股、moonshot、安全股、长期国家安全股四层配置
我个人不会仅投资一个行业以分散风险。我提到光子学如$AAOI是因为我认为它有最高的短期上涨空间。但像$NBIS这样的公司，正如Jensen准确所说的，会"照顾好你"的长期表现。也许可以找一些高增长long标的，例如：$ARM - 从新AI CPU获得5倍收入增长；$NBIS - 到第四季度实现7-9B ARR增长带来10倍收入增长；$AAOI - 从光收发器需求获得10倍收入增长；$MRVL - 从$MSFT Maia ASICs获得2-3倍收入增长。选择一两个moonshot：我提到$SIVE是我最喜欢的，但鉴于其规模小，我不会投入太多集中度。然后用一些"更安全的标的"进行杠铃配置：$AMZN长期看涨，即使通过机器人/AI削减运营成本，但其走势像蜗牛；$RDDT长期看涨，因为它利润极高且今天正在产生巨额自由现金流。也许还有一些"超长期玩家"具有深远的国家安全优势，例如：$INTC的"美国制造"；$AMKR的"美国制造"等。这只是一个虚构的例子。
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I would personally not just invest in one sector for diversification sake. I talk about photonics like $AAOI recently because I see it as highest short-term upside. But others like $NBIS as Jensen accurately said "will take care of you" long term. Maybe figure out high growth longs for example: $ARM - 5x revenue from new AI CPU $NBIS - 10x revenue to q4 $7-9B ARR ramp $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transceiver demand $MRVL - 2-3x revenue ramp from $MSFT Maia ASICs Pick one or two moonshots: I mentioned $SIVE as my favorite, but given it's small size, I wouldn't put too much concentration into them and then barbell with some "safer plays" $AMZN long term I'm bullish on even from robotics/AI cutting opex though it moves like a slug $RDDT long term I'm bullish on from on just because it's ridiculously high profit and generating massive FCF today. and maybe some "long, long term players" that have deep national security benefits eg: $INTC for Made in America $AMKR for Made in America, etc. Just a made up example.
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说自己喜欢前面提到的所有名字，Win Semi 和 ARM 是最新加入的。
@RiskAdjustedMe 说实话，我喜欢我提到过的所有名字。Win Semi 和 $ARM 是其中最新加进来的。
英文原文
@RiskAdjustedMe Tbh I like all of the names I’ve mentioned. Win Semi and $ARM were the newest ones out of the bunch.
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讨论 Google TurboQuant 对 DRAM/NAND 的影响，认为更像效率提升而非需求坍塌。
谷歌的 TurboQuant…… 以及它对 $SNDK、$MU、海力士和其他公司的影响： 它做的事情是： -> KV cache 内存占用减少 6 倍 -> H100 GPU 速度提升 8 倍 它本质上是一个压缩算法。 那现在问题来了……它会把存储压下去吗？ -> 大概率不会。 不过这也许对 $ARM 和其他公司是利好，因为你可以本地跑 AI，而不是依赖 DRAM-heavy 的数据中心。 但话说回来： -> 这基本上就是 DeepSeek round 3。你能让算法更高效，但这并不会替代存储或者 GPU。 -> 它可能会在结构上略微降低 DRAM 需求。 -> 而且到目前为止，好像也只在 Gemma、Mistral 和 Llama-3.1 这些小模型上测试过（而且那篇论文已经发了一年了） 另外，市场还把 DRAM 和 NAND 混在一起看……这个算法压的是 KV cache（DRAM），并不会对 NAND 存储有什么作用？ 不管怎样： 算法总会变得更高效。大家老说杰文斯悖论，这没错，因为这只是把用途规模继续放大。 真正该看的还是超大规模云厂商的 CapEx 预期，而不是让事情更高效的 Google 算法。 我更觉得这是个叙事层面的逆风，而不是对盈利有实质影响。
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Google's TurboQuant... And it's effect on $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix, and others: What it does: -> 6x reduction in KV cache memory footprint -> 8x Speedup on H100 GPUs It's a compression algorithm. Now... Will it beat down memory? -> Prob not. Implications might be bullish for $ARM and others though where you can run AI locally, rather than DRAM heavy DCs. However: ->This is basically DeepSeek round 3. You can make algorithms more efficient. But that doesn't replace either memory or GPUs. -> It could structurally (and slightly) reduce DRAM demand. -> think it's only been tested on small models so far like Gemma, Mistral, and Llama-3.1 (and paper's been out for a year) Also, markets conflated DRAM with NAND... this algo compresses the KV cache (DRAM). Doesn't do anything to NAND storage? Regardless: Algorithms will always get more efficient. People keep saying Jevons Paradox, which is true since this just scales use cases. Main thing to look out for is hyperscaper capex projections, not Google Algorithms that made things more efficient. Feels more like a narrative headwind than anything material to earnings.
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说自己对 SIVE 高信念，同时也看好 ARM、AAOI。
@Jornka329996 谢谢！$SIVE 对我个人来说是高信念标的。即便现在市值大概只有 4 亿美元左右，我也是这么看。 $ARM 和 $AAOI 这种价位下，长期看起来也很有潜力！ 这周我还在看另外两家大盘公司。
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@Jornka329996 Thanks! $SIVE is high conviction for me personally. Even so at these levels around ~$400m MC. $ARM and $AAOI seems promising long term at these levels too! I did have two more large cap companies I'm looking at this week.
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博主称买入的股票都能大涨，如$ARM买后像$TSEM、$SIVE次日涨20%
我告诉你们...即使我买入像$ARM这样市值1700亿美元的公司，它们第二天也会像$TSEM或$SIVE一样涨20%吗？
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I'm telling you guys... Even if I buy small cap $170 Billion dollar companies like $ARM. They just go up 20% like $TSEM or $SIVE the next day as well? https://t.co/ULZkv65d27
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说 ARM 其实也是一只 1400 亿美元市值的“大盘股”。
@Rationalmind__ 兄弟，$ARM 现在可是 1400 亿美元市值的公司。
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@Rationalmind__ Bro $ARM is a $140B MC company
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用日文感叹自己很久没对大盘股这么兴奋，并看好 ARM 的 AI CPU 收入扩张。
自从海力士和三星以来，我已经很久没有对这么大盘的股票这么兴奋了！ $ARM 的 AI CPU 收入扩张预期，真的太夸张了。
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@beauty_oe SKハイニックスやサムスン以来、大型株でこんなにワクワクしたのは久しぶり! $ARM のAI CPUの収益拡大予想、マジでヤバいね。
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说自己不是因为 RISC-V 抢食而做多 ARM，而是看好其转向 AI CPU。
@piyush1337 我做多 $ARM 不是因为 RISC-V 会蚕食它的商业模式，而是因为它自己转向了 AI CPU…… 这真的是一个极其巨大的游戏规则改变，尤其是如果你看收入预测的话。
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@piyush1337 I didn't long $ARM bc of RISC-V cannibalizing their model, but pivot to AI CPUs themself... It's an incredibly massive game changer, esp if you look at revenue projections.
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开玩笑说 ARM 只是“小盘股”但市值 1430 亿美元。
@JOptionEngineer $ARM 其实就是一家 1430 亿美元市值的小盘股公司。
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@JOptionEngineer $ARM is a small cap $143B dollar company.
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正式宣布在 139 美元做多 ARM，因其向推理端迁移与 AI CPU 前景。
顺便说一下：我在 $139 做多了 $ARM。 当市场越来越从训练转向推理时，$ARM 以 1430 亿美元市值来看，真的是一笔有说服力的多头。 然后 $ARM 的 AI CPU 会蚕食推理市场以及 $NVDA 的份额。 尤其是在 LLM 变得更轻量化的情况下。 把它们拉到 250 亿美元营收（5 倍收入）的预测已经夸张到足以证明风险收益比很高了。
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FYI: I went long on $ARM at $139. Genuinely a compelling long at $143B MC as markets shift more from training -> inference. Then $ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share. Especially as LLMs get more lightweight. The projections to $25B/revenue (5x revenue) are already insane to justify risk-reward.
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认为如果 ARM 新产品线能把收入做 5 倍，应该被重估得更高一点。
@mi20483980476 也不完全是那个意思。我的意思只是，如果 $ARM 靠一条新产品线把收入做 5 倍，它大概应该被重估得再高一点。
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@mi20483980476 Not exactly. I'm just saying $ARM probably deserves to be a re-rated a tad higher if they're 5xing their revenue from a new product line.
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说自己在 139-141 美元买了 ARM，若新产品收入倍增，股价只涨 3% 不够。
@wemillionaire 我确实在大约 139 到 141 美元买了股份。 如果他们靠一条新产品把收入做倍增，我本来觉得它应该涨得不止 3%。
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@wemillionaire I did buy shares at ~$139-$141. I did think it should have been up more than 3% if they're multiplying their revenue from a new product.
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觉得 ARM 只是 1430 亿美元市值公司，新闻出来后只涨 7% 很怪。
@yoursregarded 对啊，我完全没概念，因为这事已经出来一阵了，但它就是在我发帖时涨了 7%。 这可是一家 1430 亿美元市值的公司？
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@yoursregarded Yeah 0 clue it's been out for awhile, but just goes up 7% when I post. It's a $143B company?
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说 ARM 的 AGI CPU 预计带来 150 亿年收入，股价反应不够大。
$ARM 预计它的 AGI CPU 能带来 150 亿美元的年收入： “公司预计这项新的芯片业务会在未来 5 年内带来超过 150 亿美元的年收入” 这可是当前营收的大约 5 倍（约 250 亿美元营收）…… 如果他们靠一条新产品线 overnight 把收入做成这样，Arm 其实应该涨得比 5% 更多才对吧？
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$ARM expects $15B in annual revenue from the the AGI CPU: "The company projects that the new chip business will generate over $15 billion in annual revenue" within the next 5 years. 5 times current revenues (~$25B revenue)... Arm probably deserves to be up more than 5% on this news if they're multiplying their revenue with a new product overnight?
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个人偏空 ARM 和 QLCM，更偏好联发科及其与谷歌的高增长 ASIC 业务。
我个人其实对 $ARM 和 $QLCM 都偏空。 问我 $ARM 可能不是最合适，因为我之前确实帮过不少 RISC-V 的东西，所以我有点偏见。 至于 Qualcomm……联发科也许更值得做多，尤其是它和 $GOOGL 合作的高增长 ASIC 业务。
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I'm actually personally pretty bearish on both $ARM and $QLCM. Probably not the best person to ask on $ARM since I did help out RISC-V quite a bit so I'm a little biased. As for Qualcomm... Mediatek is probably better long, especially with their high growth ASIC arm working with $GOOGL.
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认为如果 ARM 年收入做到 46.7 亿，再推出能带来数十亿美元的新产品会很有材料性。
@GiovandomenicoC 如果 $ARM 做到 46.7 亿美元年收入。 然后 $ARM 又推出一款每年能带来数十亿美元收入的新产品，那会非常有实质性。 当然还需要更多时间去看细节。
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@GiovandomenicoC If $ARM does $4.67B annual revenue. Then $ARM introduces a new product that does billions in annual revenue. That would be very material. Of course need more time to look into details.
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说自己需要更多时间建模 ARM，刚看到新闻。
@B8trades 我需要更多时间去给 $ARM 建模，才刚看到这条新闻。
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@B8trades I need more time to model in $ARM estimates, just saw the news recently.
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ARM 发布 AGI CPU，认为架构上解决短缺，但物理产能仍主要利好 TSM。
$ARM 宣布推出一款叫“AGI CPU”的新 AI 芯片。 根据 Arm 的说法，这项业务“预计会增加数十亿美元的年收入”。 - 136 个 Neoverse V3 核心，基于 $TSM 3nm 工艺 - 针对“agentic AI”工作负载定制，OpenAI 和 $META 是首批客户 $AMD 和 $INTC 近期都受益于企业 CPU 短缺。 你可能会问： ARM 能解决这种短缺吗？从架构上说，可以。 从物理产能上说，不行。 最大受益者是 $TSM，但这对转向授权之外业务的 $ARM 来说，也是一个很大的利好。
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$ARM announces new AI chip called "AGI CPU" According to Arm, the company "Expects it to add billions in annual revenue". - 136 Neoverse V3 cores, built on $TSM 3nm process - Custom-built for "agentic AI" workloads with OpenAI and $META as lead customers. $AMD and $INTC have recently received a tailwind from enterprise CPU shortage. You might be wondering: Does ARM Solve the Shortage? Architecturally, yes. Physically, no. Main beneficiary is $TSM, but this is a large tailwind for $ARM moving forward as they pivot from licensing.
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OpenClaw模型在低成本硬件运行提升了树莓派实用性。
软银(Softbank) + $ARM 实际上是树莓派(Raspberry Pi)的最大股东之一！但正如你提到的，苹果(Apple)和树莓派都使用 ARM 指令集架构(ISA)。大多数人起初都在囤积苹果设备，但自从 OpenClaw 模型能够在低成本硬件上运行以来，树莓派的实用性开始增加。
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Softbank + $ARM is one of Raspberry Pi's largest owner actually! But yeah as you mentioned, Apple and Raspberry Pi use arm isa. Majority of people started off hoarding Apple devices, but ever since openclaw models were able to be run on lower cost hardware, raspberry pi started having more utility.
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看好$RMBS，类比$ARM，高毛利且预期估值提升。
$RMBS 是个不错的选择，我持有该头寸。 这让我想起 $ARM，不过是针对高带宽内存(HBM)领域的，在散户眼中几乎无人问津。 它没有像 $MU 那样的定价权，但其向 SK 海力士、三星和美光授权的技术应该会带来丰厚回报。毛利率高得惊人。 我预计其估值倍数(Re-rating)在今年也会提升。
英文原文
$RMBS is a good shout, I have positions in it. Reminds me of $ARM but for HBM, pretty nonexistent in retail eyes. It doesn’t get the same pricing power like $MU but all its licenses to sk Hynix, Samsung, and micron should pay dividends. Gross margins are crazy high Id expect it to get rerated as well over this year