$RPI
相关推文
共 85 条 · 按时间倒序 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
-
博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
-
回顾核心欧洲多头持仓，重点解析Sivers在光子学领域的瓶颈地位。
简单回顾一下，以下是我所有的核心欧洲多头持仓： 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers：如你所知，它是下一代光子学的核心激光瓶颈环节，涵盖从1.6T可插拔光模块到共封装光学(CPO)。 嵌入在许多超大规模云计算服务商的供应商（如Jabil）中。
英文原文
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs: 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO. Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil
-
反思自己的投资风格：基于市场尚未理解的信息做判断。
我觉得我个人的投资风格有点不同，算是一些反思： 它本质上是自由裁量式的，基于市场还不知道的东西，也像是人生经历的综合结果。 如果你看 $AXTI、$RPI、$SIVE、$IQE 以及其他名字，很多其实是在猜测……
英文原文
I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on
-
称质疑者在SOI/RPI/SIVE上反复被打脸。
回复 @Frenchie_：他们在 $SOI、$RPI 和 $SIVE 等所有事情上都一直和我争。 然后一次又一次尴尬。不知道他们会不会学会。
英文原文
@Frenchie_ They keep fighting with me with everything from $SOI, $RPI, and $SIVE. Then get embarrassed over and over. Idk if they’re going to learn
-
复盘RPI从论点发布后上涨247%。
$RPI：从283美元到983美元，自我发布论点以来上涨247%。 引用：强劲的 AI 相关需求预计将使核心利润“显著高于”市场预期。 结果欧洲媒体2月最喜欢称为“没有基本面的迷因股”的东西，实际上背后是……
英文原文
$RPI: $283 -> $983, up 247% from my thesis post. Quote: Strong AI-related demand was expected to result in core profit "significantly ahead" of market expectations. Turns out European Media’s favorite “memestock” with “no fundamentals” back in Feb. Was actually was backed by https://t.co/5dCCgWTDDp
-
称中文文章很好地复盘了其RPI投资想法演变。
关于我当初对 $RPI 的投资想法是如何一步步演变的，这篇文章写得太精彩了！ 中文圈的朋友真的很擅长讲故事，我非常乐意让更多人看到这类好文。 尤其是，通过这些复盘故事，大家可以更好地了解我在构思原创做多逻辑时的思考过程。
英文原文
关于我当初对 $RPI 的投资想法是如何一步步演变的，这篇文章写得太精彩了！ 中文圈的朋友真的很擅长讲故事我非常乐意让更多人看到这类好文 尤其是，通过这些复盘故事大家可以更好地了解我在构思原创做多逻辑时的思考过程。
-
复盘欧洲媒体曾称RPI为迷因股，后被业绩打脸。
几个月前，一家欧洲媒体把我的 $RPI 想法称为： - “群体愚蠢” 并说： - $RPI 股价会“崩回现实” 然后称它为： - “迷因股”。 财报出来后呢？收入预期被大幅打爆。 很有意思，媒体可以写下这么多诽谤…… 等结果变得很难看时，又假装从没发生过。 从 $SOI 到 $SIVE，媒体诽谤的数量相当惊人。
英文原文
Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea: - “mass stupidity” And said: - $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality” Then called it a: - “Meme stock”. Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations. It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander… Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly. Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.
-
列举欧洲股票战绩：RPI、LPK、SOI大幅上涨。
以防有人好奇我在欧洲股票上的记录： $RPI：280美元 -> 800美元（agentic AI 硬件需求论点）。 $LPK：约6美元，13美元发表 thesis -> 24.2美元（玻璃核心基板近乎垄断）。 $SOI：44美元 -> 181美元（硅光子，衬底垄断）。
英文原文
Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) https://t.co/EWWaVL7Y49
-
长文反驳XFAB是迷因股，强调CHIPS资金、SiPH评估、800VDC功率半导体和低估值。
媒体兄弟……$XFAB 怎么会是迷因股？ 这次能不能不要重复 $RPI 的错误？ 它们字面上因为自身关键性正在获得欧盟 CHIPS Act 资金。 并且有 $NVDA / $NOK 在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们以约1.28倍低市净率交易。 这让我想起 $SOI：低市净率，但传统业务拖累之外有高增长垂直领域。 $XFAB 下周在 CHIPS Act 2 蓝图中被明确提到，而该蓝图聚焦光子学。 主要收入爬坡围绕 $NVDA 推动 800VDC 带来的功率半导体。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 等最近都在起飞。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它是功率半导体里知名度较低的代工厂……但美国商务部两年前就指出它是美国唯一高量 SiC 代工厂。 我只是刚好指出了这些连接。 不要因为你不理解某件事，就把它叫作“迷因股”，说价格脱离基本面。
英文原文
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
-
复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
英文原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
-
长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
-
SIVE/RPI模式类似：信息综合上涨后机构负面报道、散户卖出、机构买入流通盘、股价新高。
回复 @dubidubabap：我看到 $SIVE、$RPI 以及基本所有事情都有很强的相似性。 它诡异地类似于：信息综合推动价格上涨 -> 机构发布负面新闻/媒体周期 -> 散户卖出 -> 结果机构在买入流通盘 -> 股票创历史新高。
英文原文
@dubidubabap I see pretty strong parallels with $SIVE, $RPI, and basically everything. It’s eerily similar to price rises on info synthesis -> institutions publish negative news/media cycles -> retail sells -> turns out institutions were buying the float -> stock hits ATHs.
-
列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
-
欧洲媒体看空的名字后来都在创新高
就在 3 个月前，欧洲媒体还把我的 $RPI thesis 叫成“meme stock”，说盈利不该被纳入决策。 2 个月前，$SOI 被说成“估值过高，thesis 没有新东西”。 这个月又轮到 $SIVE，被说成“没什么特别的，Sivers 或 CPO 早就存在很多年了”。 结果这三个现在年内都还在创新高，而且都是三位数回报。尤其是 Raspberry Pi，在把前瞻收入增长预期从约 15% 押到 52% 到 55% 后，表现非常夸张。 我也预计这三只（$RPI、$SIVE、$SOI）会继续在 AI、SiPH 和 CPO 的驱动下交出创纪录增长。 也许每次这些负面稿子出来之后，欧洲媒体都该照照镜子？ 真正盯基本面的那些人，反而成了他们嘲笑的对象。
英文原文
Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis: "A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions. 2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis". This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around for years". Each are still hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns. Especially, Raspberry PI after it shattered projections by 52% to 55% fwd. rev growth from ~15% est. And I expect all 3 ($RPI, $SIVE, and $SOI) to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating. Maybe after each negative hit piece... it's time for European media to look in a mirror? The ones focusing on actual fundamentals are the ones they're mocking.
-
回顾 RPI thesis 被媒体唱空后仍然兑现
@pennycheck 哈哈，这个 thesis 我收到了很多负面声音，尤其是媒体和各种杂志。 很高兴它后来真的走出来了。 https://t.co/l0Oxak3s27
英文原文
@pennycheck lol I got so much negativity from this thesis, especially from the media and random journals. Glad to see it age well https://t.co/l0Oxak3s27
-
RPI 从 meme stock 变成接近历史新高
那个“没有基本面”的 Meme Stock $RPI，现在已经接近历史新高了，靠的是创纪录的营收预测。 看到这个想法逐步兑现，挺有意思。 https://t.co/wx9hQYzJGT
英文原文
The "Meme Stock" with no fundamentals $RPI is now approaching all time highs from record revenue projections. Fun to see this idea age well. https://t.co/wx9hQYzJGT
-
作者两个月前逆势做多$EWY，现在浮盈约3倍，证明自己判断正确。
两个月前所有人都在唱空 $EWY。 称其为“白银崩盘”或“高丽指数泡沫”。 现在他们全都改口，说自己一直看多存储器。 即便从 $RPI 到 $SIVE 的恐惧发帖不断，我的论点最终还是正确的。 我能积累24.5万+粉丝的主要原因，是我对自己的观点始终保持一致性且立场坚定。 我的 $EWY 多头仓位现在浮盈约3倍。 （引用内容）： 感觉所有人都在唱空韩国综合指数（KOSPI），说： > “看看这图表，它不可能一直涨下去！” > 存储器是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 要等3年才能交付预订单） > $EWY 基本就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，不能代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨。 > 存储器需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争就消失，只是会变得更贵。 > 原油/LNG能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云厂商，不会被运营费用吸收。 这看起来是恐惧抛售和去杠杆化（3倍杠杆ETF和10倍可能已被清洗），而不是实质性运营问题（略有 bearish 阻力，但不至于 -30%）。 SK海力士期货现在市值交易区间在$300B 高位到 $400B 低位。 如果 $MS 和更新的分析师预期即使略微正确，SK海力士的营业利润例如将达到约$300B。 到2028年他们将坐拥大量现金储备，即使存储器价格下跌也不怕。（甚至还没考虑需求变成结构性）。 这看起来又是另一个DeepSeek-Nvidia式的恐惧抛售情形，尤其是在nand/dram价格最近再次调涨之后。更像是底部时机的把握问题。 像这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的标题党抛售更重要。
英文原文
Everyone was doomposting $EWY 2 months ago. Calling it “Silver Crash” or “KOSPI crash bubble” Now they’re all flip flopping opinions, saying they were bullish memory all along. Even despite fear posting from $RPI to $SIVE, my thesis ends up right. Main reason I got 245K+ followers is because I’m consistently right about my opinions while taking a firm directional stance. My $EWY longs are now up ~3x.
-
瑞典媒体看不懂光子学
我真的笑了。这大概是我目前见过最搞笑的标题了，自从 $RPI 那次之后。 你会看到瑞典那些不懂技术的记者，对半导体 / 光子学一窍不通。 他们在分析 $SIVE，还告诉所有本地人（大多数持股者）赶紧卖掉，因为它只是个“meme”。 他们不懂围绕即将到来的 $JBL 1.6T 或 $MRVL CPO 放量的超大规模云厂商认证周期吗？ 也不懂它刚刚被验证为 $GFS 生态里的激光供应商，而且 $AMD 正在推动新的 CPO 需求吗？ > 一定是 meme。只能按 2025 年 TTM 资产负债表和旧营收预测来估值，对吧？ 至少这种波动有助于在明年 CPO / 1.6T 关键拐点之前，把控制权转给美国投资者 / 机构。
英文原文
I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI. You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics. Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme". Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp? Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand? > Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right? At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.
-
不要只看 meme 标签
就在一个月前，记者和媒体还在淡化我对 $SOI 和 $RPI 的 thesis。 他们引用我的 WSB 标签，把它说成是“注定要崩的 meme 股”，却没有分析底层 thesis。 结果这两只都涨了 100%，而且把涨幅守住了。 $SIVE 现在也是同样的情况。 我从来不靠权威说话……但既然他们想走这条路： 我就很好奇……他们的叙事里为什么总把我在 Nature 之类的地方发表过、被引用上千次的基础 AI 论文背景漏掉？ 又或者为什么今天 X 上那些看多 $SIVE 的分析师里，有些人是 UC Berkeley 的 Ph.D.，而且本身就在光子学领域发文？ 反而总是英语系或非技术背景的毕业生跑去媒体上，对 CPO 超大规模云厂商认证周期和供应链映射发表最强硬的意见。 我总觉得机构最不喜欢的，就是散户投资者在 X 上真的懂自己在说什么。 一个 thesis 应该靠本身的价值生死，而不是发言人是什么权威。
英文原文
Just 1 month ago, journalists and media tried downplaying my $SOI and $RPI thesis. As “meme stocks that were set to crash” citing my WSB tag without analyzing the underlying thesis. They’re both up 100% and held their gains. Same is happening to companies like $SIVE. I never argue from authority… but since they’re going that route: I’m curious why… in their narratives they just leave out the fact I published fundamental AI papers in places like Nature with thousands of citations? Other the fact other analysts on X positive about $SIVE today have Ph.Ds from places like UC Berkeley and publish in the photonics space? It’s always the English or non-technical graduates that go out in the media and have the strongest opinion about CPO hyperscaler qualification cycles and supply chain mapping. It just feels like institutions hate it when a retail investors on X know what they’re talking about. A thesis should live and die based on merit, not the authority of who is comes from.
-
在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
-
两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
-
不想做跟单秀
@itsakek 我不是 Enplas 或 Win Semi 那类第一时间就有仓位的人，所以不会发那种“你听到了吗，匿名网友？”的帖子。 如果我的 thesis 本身是独特的，比如 $RPI 或 $AXTI，那我就会去表达胜利感。
英文原文
@itsakek I’m not first to Enplas or stuff like Win Semi, so not going to do a did you listen anon? Type post. If my thesis is originally unique like $RPI or $AXTI I’m going to victory lap a lot on the way up.
-
分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
-
回顾自己在 WSB 被封和多只名字被骂空的经历。
一个有意思的事实：我在 WSB 子版块里因为 $AXTI 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元以上而被封了，原因是版主气得不行，因为它一直涨，而且后来证明我是对的。 像 $RPI 这种名字因为“meme stock”叙事被无休止地攻击，连 FT 和新闻媒体都这样……但最后还是翻倍了。 $SOI 之类的名字也被无穷无尽地骂成拉盘砸盘。 $SIVE 之类的名字也被无休止地攻击，带着一堆瑞典式的酸味。 $AEHR 之类的也一样。 还有 $SOI，也一直被人喷成“肯定别人比我先建仓了”。 我也不知道……只要你是第一个发现的人，就会招来一大堆仇恨评论。等它变成 50-100 亿美元市值、涨了 1000%+ 之后，大家才会说“哦，原来可以做多啊”。
英文原文
Fun fact I got banned on WSB subreddit after $AXTI went from $12 to $80+ because Mods got mad it kept going up and played out correctly. Names like $RPI got endless harassment over "meme stock" narratives. Including FT and news media... but it ended up doubling anyway. Names like $SOI, endless pump and dump harassment. Names like $SIVE, endless Swedish salt harassment. Names like $AEHR, endless harassment. Names like $SOI, endless harassment thinking someone else went long before I did. Idk... whenever you're first to something, it's just a ton of hate comments. And only after it's a $5-10B+ company after going up 1000%+ is it "okay" to go long.
-
列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
-
说 SOI 已是今年第 16 只翻倍股。
哇，$SOI 现在已经成了我第 16 只…… 我今年写过的 mini thesis 里，已经有一只回报超过 100% 了。 最近两只是 $ALRIB 和 $RPI。 为什么我身边的一切都在翻倍？ https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
英文原文
Wow $SOI is now the 16th name... I've done a mininthesis post on that returned over 100% Year to Date. The most recent two were $ALRIB and $RPI. Why does everything around me keep doubling? https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
-
作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
-
批评欧洲投资者在底部卖出本土优质公司股票，错失大涨后被美国投资者接盘的现象。
纯粹出于好奇。为什么欧洲人讨厌自己国家的市场？如果看看我所有的核心长仓股票：$IQE今年迄今上涨837%，$SIVE上涨385%，$ALRIB上涨258%，$SOI上涨208%，$RPI上涨107%。当地分析师和记者不断释放负面情绪。但这些公司都是各自国家的国家安全瑰宝（除了树莓派Raspberry Pi）。当地人最终都在底部卖出所有股票，然后股票就转移到美国投资者和机构手中。然后他们就享受不到任何上涨红利。如果像Riber这样的公司被$MSFT用于量子领域，并以26倍市盈率交易，在美国估值会超过16亿美元，就像$LWLG一样。但如果这类公司有任何估值溢价，人们就会酸溜溜的。我见过的对外资最感激的群体是日本人，大多数人都非常欢迎。我认为欧洲人应该为自己领先的前沿公司感到骄傲，因为它们正在受益于西方资本。这样它们才能扩大产能，满足美国超大规模云服务商的需求？这对公司、本地经济都是正和效应。这种落后的思维模式现象需要改变。
英文原文
Out of curiosity. Why do Europeans hate their own markets? If you look at all my core longs: $IQE up 837% YTD $SIVE up 385% YTD $ALRIB up 258% YTD $SOI up 208% YTD $RPI up 107% YTD It’s just endless salt coming from local analysts and reporters. But they’re the national security gems in each country (aside from Raspberry Pi). Locals end up selling all their shares at the bottom, then it just transferred to American investors and institutions. Then they don’t get any of the upside. If a company like Riber is used by $MSFT quantum and traded at a 26 p/e, it would be $1.6B+ in the US like $LWLG. But people are salty if it has a valuation premium at all. The only appreciative community for foreign capital I’ve seen are Japanese, and most have been incredibly welcoming. I feel like Europeans should be proud their leading frontier companies, are benefiting from Western capital. So they can scale up production needed for American hyperscalers? It’s a positive sum effect on the company, and the local economies as well. This backward mindset phenomenon needs to change.
-
说 RPI 两个月后盘中翻倍，证明自己的 AI 硬件 thesis。
$RPI 今天盘中已经涨到三位数回报了，才两个月。 这说明我年内已经从 $AAOI 到 $LITE，命中了 14 只涨幅 100%+ 的股票。 如果我能在很短时间内写出 14 篇分别对应不同多头、而且它们都翻倍的 thesis……也许我确实还行？ 我最早把它定义成 AI agentic hardware orchestration。 但二月份的时候大家都把我的 thesis 叫成“meme”。 （特别感谢 FT、Reuters、Bloomberg） 不过我当时就指出了营收加速，预计会比共识高出 3 倍。财报也验证了我的估计。 现在它正在被重新定价成一家 AI 硬件公司。
英文原文
$RPI hit triple digit % return intraday today, just 2 months later. That’s 14 different stocks I’ve called YTD from $AAOI to $LITE that hit 100%+ returns. Maybe if I’m able to write a thesis on 14 separate longs that double in a short time period… I’m decent at it? I was the first person to long it as AI agentic hardware orchestration. But everyone called my thesis a "Meme" back in Feb. (Special S/O to FT, Reuters, Bloomberg) But I called out revenue acceleration expecting a 3x beat compared to consensus. And their earnings report validated my estimates. It's now being re-rated as an AI hardware company.