$SIVE
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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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Sivers获行业认可，产能升级跻身T1梯队，并与中国厂商合作。
顺便提一下，$SIVE 在 Digitimes 上也有报道，这值得赞赏，表明其在瑞典之外获得了行业认可。我认为 Sivers 建设 1 亿+ 连续波分布反馈 (CW DFB) 激光器产能，迫使行业重新审视其模型，并带来了更多的关注。因为它如果顺利实现产能爬坡，将使 Sivers 进入与 $COHR、住友、古河、$AVGO、Landmark 和 $LITE 并列的 T1 激光器产能讨论中。除此之外，2026 年 CIOE 的渠道调研非常有意义，因为业界发现 Sivers 正在与中国可插拔光模块厂商合作，并在当地设立办公室。这让我想起当初我在 OFC 指出 $SIVE 和 $JBL 在 1.6T 长距光模块 (LRO) 上的合作时，没人相信这种联系，直到官方发布新闻稿。总之，很高兴看到这家小公司茁壮成长。
英文原文
$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release. Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up
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博主看好光子学供应链，认为激光器光纤将重现内存超级周期。
花旗银行TMT团队：“激光器和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM（高带宽内存）’。我从2025年就开始谈论像 $LITE / $AAOI 这样的激光器公司，以及向连续波(CW)架构的转变，这领先于当前的行业共识。我完全同意Lightmatter和花旗的观点。仅供参考：激光器方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / 古河电工 / 住友电工是较知名的标的。光纤方面：$GLW / 古河电工 / 古河光缆 / 住友电工是较知名的敞口（显然供应链中还有更多）。*披露，个人对该主题有持仓。补充评论称：‘紧张的供应状况将支持这些资产的稀缺性溢价。’我们已经看到激光器价格上涨，正如今天在深圳CIOE 2026上看到的 $SIVE 渠道检查以及 $LITE 的财报评论所示。因此，我认为2027-2028年的光子学超级周期将非常类似于2025-2026年的内存周期。尤其是随着高盛修正后的估计显示，每GPU-ASIC的光学内容将显著增加……
英文原文
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
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解析SIVE披露的CW DFB产能及其在全球供应链中的占比。
在审视 $SIVE 披露的超 1 亿 CW DFB 非凡产能时，这是正确的回应。提供一些背景：Trendforce 7 月数据显示，全球 CW/EML 产能约为 6.084 亿/年（年化月产量约 5070 万单位）。其中 $AVGO、$LITE 和住友（Sumitomo）占据了 https://t.co/tx3kjhYoO1
英文原文
This is the correct response when looking at $SIVE >100m CW DFB extraordinary capacity disclosure. To give some context, Trendforce July data cites global CW/EML capacity is roughly 608.4M/year (~50.7M monthly units annualized). With $AVGO, $LITE, and Sumitomo making up https://t.co/tx3kjhYoO1
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看好SIVE激光器产能规模及CPO放量带来的定价权
@NFTs_Mvp 是的，我非常惊喜，$SIVE 正在瞄准的激光器产能规模巨大。而且 2027 年第四季度的运营时间比我预期的要早得多（大约在共封装光学(CPO)激光器开始规模化出货时）。在供应短缺期间，我预计西方激光器的平均售价(ASP)将拥有更强的定价权，因为
英文原文
@NFTs_Mvp Yes surprised in a very good way, the amount of laser capacity $SIVE is targeting is enormous. And Q4 2027 operation is a lot sooner than I expected (around initial cpo scale up laser shipments) During shortages, I expect western laser ASP to have stronger pricing power as
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SIVE扩产InP激光器，隐含年营收潜力达6.25亿至12.5亿美元。
$SIVE 今天宣布扩大在格拉斯哥的磷化铟(InP)制造产能。新产能目标为：年产约1亿颗连续波(CW)分布反馈(DFB)激光器。按 Sivers 历史上每8激光器阵列50-100美元的定价推算，隐含的年营收产能约为6.25亿-12.5亿美元（非 https://t.co/tRg1XTFeg4
英文原文
$SIVE announced today that it is expanding InP manufacturing in Glasgow. The new capacity target is: ~100 million CW DFB laser annual production. Using Sivers’ historical $50-$100 per 8-laser array pricing, the implied revenue capacity might be ~$625M-$1.25B/year (not https://t.co/tRg1XTFeg4
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指出市场忽视SIVE在CPO激光器的地位，且过度聚焦可插拔模块。
@dockery58 是的，共封装光学(CPO)的出货量甚至还没开始……大家都忘了 $SIVE 是主要的 CPO 激光器供应商，因为管理层过于聚焦无线/5G/固定无线接入(FWA)/卫星通信。像 $JBL 这样的可插拔模块(Pluggables)本应是 2028 年 CPO 放量的过渡桥梁，但不知为何成了主导焦点。
英文原文
@dockery58 Yeah, CPO volumes haven’t even started… everyone forgot that $SIVE was a major CPO laser supplier because management focused so much around wireless/5g/fwa/satcom. Pluggables like $JBL were supposed to be the bridge for 2028 CPO ramp but somehow became the dominant focus.
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建议SIVE聚焦核心业务并解雇向媒体妥协的高管。
我不想在这里扮演积极投资者(Activist Investor)的角色： 但我希望最近的暴跌能给 $SIVE 传递一个信息：投资者基础+专注领域才是真正重要的（不是瑞典，不是无线通信）。 以及他们应该解雇那些向当地媒体批评低头的任何董事会成员或高管： 还有
英文原文
I don’t want to play investor activism here: But I hope the recent crash sends a message to $SIVE what investor base + focus really matters (not Sweden, not wireless). As well as that they should fire whatever board member or executive gave into local media criticisms: And
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联发科与Ayar合作CPO，SIVE为其激光器供应商但偏上游。
@Matrix_B0SS 我今天才知道，根据公开文件，联发科(Mediatek)是共封装光学(CPO)领域Ayar的合作伙伴（不仅仅是投资者）。当然，众所周知，$SIVE 是 Ayar 的主要激光器供应商。但 Sivers 目前可能处于产业链的上游环节。 https://t.co/gs8e1z2rf1
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS I actually learned today that Mediatek is partners with Ayar for CPO (not just investors) from public filings. And of course it's known that $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. But Sivers is probably too far upstream for now. https://t.co/gs8e1z2rf1
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台积电高管指出光引擎非瓶颈，激光器、光纤及测试环节才是部署关键。
$TSM 先进封装副总裁： “晶圆代工厂可以扩大光引擎的产能，但大规模部署的真正瓶颈在于其他地方…… 包括激光器、光纤、光纤连接器和测试”（UDN） 以下是一些分类思路： 激光器：$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa 光纤/FAU（光纤阵列单元）：Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo 光纤/CPO（共封装光学）连接器：BizLink, $GLW, Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO测试：MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma （披露：我持有上述主题的相关敞口，具体个股名称并非由台积电指定） 我也喜欢其他标的，例如ShunSin，它现在明确拥有TSMC COUPE（共封装统一封装引擎）的敞口，但可能属于封装/集成等不同类别。 例如：“富士康旗下ShunSin确认与台积电COUPE合作” 我认为相比上半年并没有太多新内容，除了持续的新闻（例如上周报告指出FAU在2027年可能出现供需失衡）。 但偶尔重申整体受益者还是很有帮助的……
英文原文
$TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging: "Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere... Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN) Just some bucket ideas: Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma (disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC) There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration. eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership" I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week). But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...
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SIVE受CW激光瓶颈利好，有望从瓶颈供应商成长为光学巨头。
@wannabepanacea 目前我所见的是由沟通失误和噪音引发的市场波动。论点破位的情况会是：1. 晶圆代工产能分配出现问题，因为这会影响供应。（但他们现在有两家）。2. 或者资格认证失败。（他们发出了上半年 $JBL 订单的信号，但还需观察）。从根本上说，我认为在 CW 激光（连续波激光）瓶颈期间，$SIVE 处于绝佳位置。我也看到 Sivers 有潜力成为更大的光学巨头，而不仅仅是关键的瓶颈供应商……这就是为什么我更关注公司的方向。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea So far, what I've seen is market volatility stemming from communication failures and noise. Thesis break would be 1. issues with their foundry allocations, since that would affect supply. (But they have 2 now). 2. Or failing qualifications. (they signaled $JBL orders for H1, but we'll see). Fundamentally I think $SIVE is in an amazing spot during a CW laser bottleneck. I also see more potential for Sivers to become a larger optical giant rather than remain just a chokepoint supplier... which is why I focus on company direction a lot more.
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总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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博主赞赏Sivers CEO，认为其需摆脱本地市场限制。
@dxleolibra1003 很高兴看到你主动联系 $SIVE 的投资者关系(IR)部门，更棒的是你直接收到了CEO本人的回复！ 我认为 Sivers 的 CEO 非常出色，只是需要摆脱本地市场的限制。
英文原文
@dxleolibra1003 Cool to see you reaching out to $SIVE IR and it's even better you got a response back from the CEO himself! I do think Sivers' CEO is amazing, just gotta escape local markets.
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建议SIVE重塑为高增长光学公司，摆脱本地市场拖累。
@maroonjacket1 嗯，$SIVE 的 CEO 确实牛，但如果你去鱼市，就别指望有人问鱼以外的问题。Sivers 需要开始将自己定位并传达为一家高增长的光学公司，而不是被本地市场拖累。
英文原文
@maroonjacket1 Nah $SIVE CEO is goated, but if you go to a fishermen's market, don't expect many questions outside of fish. Sivers needs to both start treating and communicating themselves as a hypergrowth optical company. Rather than being weighed down by local markets.
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博主重申对SIVE运营面极度看好，因产能增加及模块披露，但批评会议提问质量差。
@dBooray 不，我仍然在运营层面非常看好$SIVE，随着额外的晶圆代工产能分配(Foundry Allocation)增加以及6个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的披露，我的看好程度更高了。我只是无法从这些电话会议中获得我想要的回答，因为提出的引导性问题很烂，或者聚焦于错误的事情。
英文原文
@dBooray No I'm still very bullish operationally on $SIVE, and much more so with the additional foundry allocation + 6 pluggable disclosure. I just couldn't get the answers I wanted to from these calls, because the leading questions asked were crap or focused on the wrong things.
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批评 SIVE 忽视美国投资者对增长潜力的关注，导致估值受限。
是的。我真的不明白为什么 $SIVE 仍然专注于瑞典本地市场的沟通和私募融资，而不是美国市场。面对瑞典受众时，你会遇到诸如“如何止血”、“为何不披露私人客户”、“为何聚焦光收发器（这很明显）”以及“非光子订单影响”等引导性或指责性问题。因此，CEO 三分之一的时间都在为“机会管道”的含义进行辩护。而美国分析师会追问：瓶颈期+ASP上涨/经营杠杆下的晶圆厂分配经济影响；这些分配带来的产能收入（美国分析师半数电话会议都问这个）；$GFS 的 NPO/CPO/可插拔规模影响及下游终端客户机会；Ayar 等 CPO 玩家 2028 年量产（刚融资 5 亿+）或 ELS 生产与 O-net 的 TAM 机会；6 家新可插拔玩家的规模，而非质问“为何不披露”；以及 CFO 关于上市时间表和 M&A TAM 扩张的法律声明。这样投资者才能感知 2027-2028 年的未来增长。相反，目前的问答框架聚焦于当前财务（美国投资者不关心）、非光子影响或对措辞的质疑，而非让美国投资者兴奋于 CW 激光瓶颈期的经济影响。$SIVE 在瑞典市场花的时间越多，其估值就越像瑞典公司。
英文原文
Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising. Over the US. The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include: - Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding" - "Why can't you disclosure your private customers" - Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious) - Implications for non-photonics orders So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means" US analysts would have pressed: - Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage - Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts) - $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities - Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there. - How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them" - Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities So investors can get a sense of future growth for 2027-2028. Instead, the way leading questions are framed/answers, the entire calls were focused around current financials (which US investors don't care about), non-photonic implications, or skepticism of wording. Rather than exciting US investors about economic implications from their time in a CW laser bottleneck. The more time $SIVE spends in Swedish markets, the more they will be valued as such.
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SIVE应聚焦增长与上市，而非应对无谓指控。
@Happy_Chachi $SIVE 的方向此前已分享，且与我认同的观点一致： -> 并购(M&A)重点（已引入2名相关新董事） -> 纳斯达克(NASDAQ)上市（已公布计划） -> 瓶颈期的产能（已宣布新的晶圆厂合作伙伴） -> 多项开发与认证正在进行中 他们在本季财报电话会上的沟通严重偏离重点。 他们不应把所有时间花在反驳瑞典市场关于“机会管道”的无谓指控上。 而应专注于未来增长机会的经济影响 + 加速纳斯达克上市进程，而非提供律师式的免责声明。
英文原文
@Happy_Chachi $SIVE direction has already been shared and aligned with what I've agreed with: -> M&A focus (they brought on 2 new related board members) -> NASDAQ listing (already announced plan) -> Capacity during bottleneck (announced new foundry partner) -> Many development/qualifications ongoing Their communication was super far off in this quarter's call. They shouldn't need to spend all their time defending against the useless Swedish market accusations about "opportunity pipeline". And just focus on economic impact of forward growth opportunities + accelerate NASDAQ listing process rather than giving lawyer like disclousres.
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Sivers若加速上市并收购私有AI光公司，有望快速复苏。
@CryptoVandelay 完全取决于 $SIVE 的执行能力及其对国际受众的沟通。他们拥有：-> 在两家晶圆代工厂瓶颈期间的巨大激光器产能 -> 许多正在进行的资格认证 -> 来自7000万美元融资的资金。如果他们想利用这些资源去收购一家像 Cloud Light/Ayar/Lightmatter 那样的私有公司，并通过投入资源加速纳斯达克上市进程，我可以看到 Sivers 实现快速复苏。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay Fully dependent on $SIVE execution and int. audience communication. They have: -> tremendous laser capacity during a bottleneck from 2 foundries -> many ongoing qualifications -> capital from $70M fundraise If they want to leverage their way to a Cloud Light/Ayar/Lightmatter type acquisition of a private company. And pull forward NASDAQ listing process by pouring resources to do so, I can see Sivers pulling a fast recovery.
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SIVE运营佳但CFO沟通差，估值低或被MRVL收购以整合Celestial。
@NieMehrKrieg 运营层面，Sivers 表现极佳。但在沟通方面，首席财务官(CFO) 的表现糟糕透顶，甚至可以说是惨不忍睹。 为了让大家对估值有个概念： $SIVE 现在的价格足够便宜，以至于 $MRVL 只需花点零钱就能将其收购，从而实现对其 Celestial 收购案的垂直整合。
英文原文
@NieMehrKrieg Operationally, Sivers has been doing amazing. Communication wise, it's been subpar and atrocious from the CFO. Just to give you a sense of valuations: $SIVE is cheap enough now that $MRVL could just blow spare change to buy it and vertically integrate their Celestial acquisition.
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批评 $SIVE 财报沟通保守，建议激进并购与双重上市以加速扩张。
如果我要批评 $SIVE 的财报： 1. 管理层低估了两个最重要的披露事项。 -> 6 个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的合作项目 -> 晶圆代工产能(Foundry capacity)（正值行业瓶颈期） 这是电话会议最重要的部分，本应重点阐述其经济规模。但我们只听到了2-3句话。 而且，不应该让 X 上的动漫头像来主要谈论这些影响。 2. CFO 需要重新培训或换人。 作为股东，听到律师式的回答令人愤怒。连我都对这句话感到恼火： “我们将评估时机，并决定是否在条件成熟时推进。” 现在他们申请双重上市以逃离充满敌意的瑞典市场，这应该是板上钉钉的事。 股东资助一家未来增长型公司，不是为了听律师式的回答。 再次强调，这可能是 CFO 给出的最糟糕的回答之一，需要坚定的承诺和更快的时间表。 3. 7000万美元应用于并购和双重上市。 -> 坦白说，现阶段专注于混合制造(Hybrid manufacturing)是资本浪费，听到这个我很失望。 虽然最终需要，但已有2家晶圆代工供应商。 -> 你拥有大量新资本和庞大的市值。 利用它进行类似 $AVGO 风格的收购，获取 Cloud Light 类的可插拔模块或光引擎(Optical engines)知识产权。 Lumilens 在2年内从0增长到55亿美元，现在已与超大规模云服务商合作。 Sivers 应尽快摆脱激光瓶颈，不要只做组件供应商。 最重要的是，谁在乎与客户竞争？如果客户说：“如果你做可插拔模块，我们将转向其他供应商购买激光”， 谁会？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 将激光转向内部使用。许多亚洲玩家已分配完毕。 尽可能利用当前的瓶颈，因为几乎没有合格的替代选择。 我确信所有合作伙伴都试图向上垂直整合到激光层级并进行竞争。 如果在 Q2 期间尝试了新的光引擎/可插拔模块收购，情况会大不相同。 _ TLDR： $SIVE 应旨在成为下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司一样闪电扩张。 利用那7000万美元资本在下半年(H2)加速，至少完成准备。并预计纳斯达克上市在 2027 年上半年完成。 而不是那个时间段的“评估”。 并利用资本+股权向下扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，使用你的股权估值，收购 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 类初创公司。 至于电话会议的措辞，市场关心的是晶圆代工分配+6家可插拔模块玩家的经济价值，而不是其他业务部门。 $SIVE 迄今为止极其保守，但 他们需要加速并向面向未来的美国/国际股东沟通。 而不是面向关心 Q2/滚动十二个月(TTM)收入的当地瑞典受众。 否则他们将被视为亚洲组件供应商，并最终被估值为欧洲公司。
英文原文
If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
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SIVE遭恶意做空，长期Capex增加是主要看空点。
@sokarsokk 混合了算法、空头以及数十个被重新启用或休眠的账户，专门用于散布关于 $SIVE 的负面消息。很难相信那些在 2016 年亚洲 ICO 期间用于营销的账户，或是新的 X 账户，会突然开始只发布 50 条针对 Sivers 的负面评论。尽管这些行为会导致短期波动，但基本面终将回归。我看到的实质性看空因素是，从 Fab-lite（轻晶圆厂）模式转向混合制造模式所带来的资本支出（Capex）增加的影响（但从长远来看这是不可避免的）。我还没看到多少人评论这一点。
英文原文
@sokarsokk Mix of algorithms, short sellers, dozens of repurposed/dormant accounts dedicated toward spreading negative news about $SIVE Hard to believe accounts used for marketing during 2016 Asian ICOs or new X accounts would just start posting 50 negative comments only about Sivers. Regardless of near term volatility these things cause, fundamentals will catch up. The materially bearish thing I see is implications of increased capex spend from going to a hybrid manufacturing model from fablite (but it’s inevitable in the long run) I haven’t really seen much people comment on that
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Sivers凭借激光器产能优势，在供应短缺中获大厂青睐，前景看好。
我看待 $SIVE 的角度如下： 公司/云服务提供商(CSP) 不遗余力地锁定光模块用 CW 激光器产能。 因此，Sivers 带着以下优势进入行业： - 来自 Win Semi 的大规模产能 - 来自新晶圆厂（可能自 2024 年起已进行资格认证）的“目前可用的巨大产能”，因其已合作“一段时间” 此次财报中让我兴奋的是“6 个可插拔/模块”项目（数量巨大）。 我解读的细微差别是： - $COHR 称因内部光模块需求耗尽所有产能，短期内无法对外销售 InP 激光器 - $AAOI 也表示内部消耗了激光器产能（此前并非主要独立供应商） - $LITE 受瓶颈限制，一直在公开市场购买激光器 你之前的独立供应商已将激光器产能转向内部。 因此许多大厂（如 Eoptolink/Innolight 仅为举例）可能正寻求更多激光器来源。 这也符合“具备快速资格认证和爬坡能力”的说法（这与 Series B 初创企业不符）... 很多人问为什么没有到 2030 年的长期协议(LTA)？ -> 你无法随意绕过成熟玩家已完成的资格认证流程。 为何不披露客户？ 正如 $MRVL + $POET 合作所示，你不能随意披露合作供应商。 但“12 亿美元机会管道”几乎翻倍，相对于 $JBL + $GFS 的增幅。这信号表明新的可插拔项目可能比 Jabil 更实质。 因此，如果 $SIVE 在供应短缺期间带来海量 CW DFB 激光器产能... 行业条件已发生重大变化，提高了项目转化率。 加上所有~估算客户 jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (可能 lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 家其他可插拔玩家等。 我认为连点成线后，Sivers 将大获成功。
英文原文
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.
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博主认为 $SIVE 凭借广泛的光子学客户验证和稀缺产能，是极具性价比的首选标的。
不，$SIVE 是我见过的最独特的 10 亿美元市值光子学公司。仅针对 AI 数据中心： - 为 $GFS SCALE（共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块）提供参考激光器 - 披露了 7 项可插拔模块合作，其中 $JBL 为主要放量客户（H1 2027 时间表） - 与 O-Net 的外部激光源(ELS)路径 - 与 $POET 的 ELS 路径 - 向 Ayar 提供用于 CPO I/O 的激光器（现属 $NVDA nvlink 生态系统） - 为 $AEVA 提供激光器（其已与超大规模云厂商的光引擎供应商达成 NPO 协议） - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence（可能是 2023/2024 年的客户） - 与 Lightium 合作在薄膜铌酸锂(TFLN)上集成磷化铟(InP)激光器 此外，它在行业短缺期间拥有两项实质性的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器产能分配。也是业内少数几家 CPO 级激光器供应商之一。告诉我这个市值范围内还有哪家拥有如此多的持续资格认证、巨大的潜在市场(TAM)且身处光子学领域。就相对于行业内的资格认证路径而言，$SIVE 是我心中的第一选择。
英文原文
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
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CW激光器瓶颈持续，多厂商产能与新技术进展令博主基本面看好。
CW（连续波）激光器瓶颈持续存在。 -> 2家晶圆厂（Win + 另一主要玩家）为 $SIVE 提供大量产能 -> $JBL 明确的爬坡时间表 - 6家新的可插拔光模块厂商处于评估/后期讨论阶段，带来近期机会 -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (可能包括 Celestial + 其他 CPO 共封装光学玩家)。 -> 甚至未包含他们与 TFLN 等其他技术合作的工作。 对此我基本面非常看好。
英文原文
Massive CW laser bottleneck ongoing. -> 2 foundries (Win + another major player) with substantial capacity for $SIVE -> $JBL clear ramp timing - 6 new pluggable players in eval/later stage disc for near term opportunities -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (potentially Celestial + other CPO players). -> not even including the other work they do with TFLN and others. I'm very positive fundamentally after this.
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SIVE获新晶圆产能及6家新客户，解决CW激光器瓶颈，博主看多。
$SIVE 财报电话会纪要刚出，简而言之： - 现在有6家新的可插拔模块厂商正在与 Sivers 合作。 这可能是继新晶圆厂产能分配之外，本次财报最大的新闻。 “3家处于Alpha样品评估阶段”，另外3家处于技术对接/供应评估阶段。” 这也解释了为什么他们12亿美元的营收管道大幅膨胀（因为这次飞跃比 Jabil 更大）。 - 预计与 $JBL 的初始生产订单将在2027年上半年下达，量产爬坡计划于2027年下半年进行。 冲啊，Jabil 是巨大的超大规模客户供应商，终于有了明确的量产营收时间表。 - “新的晶圆厂合作伙伴带来了现已可用的巨大产能” 这正是我想听到的。显然他们为此筹备已久，因为产能“现已可用”，这非常关键。 连续波激光器(CW lasers)严重短缺，而 $SIVE 引入了 Win Semi 之外的新供应源（也降低了风险）。 正如你从其他合格的 CW 厂商那里听到的（他们生产的任何东西都能卖光），随着 Sivers 的合作伙伴完成资格认证，我预计情况会相同。 - “长期产能模型中，三分之一的制造产能将内部化，而三分之二来自我们的晶圆厂合作伙伴” 对此反应冷淡，虽然他们最终需要像 $AAOI / $LITE 那样垂直整合是有道理的，但这意味着更多的资本支出（最好在纳斯达克上市后再进行）。 正如你在 ESMT + DDR2 瓶颈中看到的，仅在短缺期间通过无晶圆厂模式确保晶圆所带来的营业利润是惊人的。 而且用未来的现金流来资助这一点会更合理。 - 纳斯达克上市正在进行中。CFO 给出了非常像律师的回答，但一如既往地在正轨上。 - “我们目前不认为生产能力是瓶颈” 这很有意义，因为随着新的晶圆厂合作伙伴加入，意味着 $SIVE 正在为一个瓶颈市场中提供非常关键的 CW 激光器供应。 简而言之： - 新的实质性晶圆厂产能分配！（在 CW 激光器短缺期间非常、非常关键） - 除了 $JBL 之外的6家新可插拔模块厂商 - 来自 Jabil 的明确营收爬坡时间表 对可插拔模块 -> 非平面光学(NPO) -> 共封装光学(CPO) 的重点关注似乎是演进路径。唯一反应冷淡的是建立内部产能，但长期来看是积极的。 总之，读完纪要后我非常高兴，除了可能优先投资激光器产能而非 IP 收购（这在行业短缺期间也是可以接受的）。 6家新的可插拔模块厂商 + “现已可用”的实质性晶圆分配，这是一个相当惊人的披露。
英文原文
$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR: - 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now. Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations. "3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage." And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil). - Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027 LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp. - "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now" This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL. CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks). As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same. - "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners" Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing). As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible. And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road. - NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual. - "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time" This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market. TLDR: - NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage) - 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL - Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive. Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition. The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.
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SIVE是GFS和Ayar激光供应商，1.6T/CPO量产需待JBL等通过认证。
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS 将 $SIVE 作为其参考激光设计，并展示其为共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块在 GFS 规模化时的激光供应商。Ayar（领先的 CPO 玩家）也将 $SIVE 列为其主要激光供应商。再次强调，所有这些较新的 1.6T 和 CPO（规模化扩展）架构将在 2027/2028 年量产，如果像 $JBL 这样的厂商尚未通过超大规模客户认证，很难提供具体的量产合同/预测。
英文原文
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS has $SIVE as their reference laser design and showcased them as a laser supplier for CPO/NPO/pluggables for GFS scale. Ayar (leading CPO player) has $SIVE listed as their primary laser supplier. Again all these newer 1.6T and CPO (scale up) architectures ramp in 2027/2028, it's hard to provide concrete volume contracts/projections if players like $JBL haven't qualification with their hyperscaler customers.
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分析师关注超大规模客户供应链及上游瓶颈，而非争论机会管道。
@nimishx KPI 一直是一致的。它只是产能爬坡情况的指标。分析师主要关注的是其超大规模客户供应商，如 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及其他可插拔/共封装光学(CPO)合作伙伴。以及它们的计划如何扩展，而 $SIVE 处于上游。这比争论机会管道意味着什么更有意义。
英文原文
@nimishx KPI has always been the consistent. It's just an indicator of how things would ramp. Main thing analysts look at are their hyperscaler suppliers like $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and other pluggable/CPO partners. And how their programs scale, with $SIVE sitting upstream. Rather than trying to argue with what opportunity pipelines mean.
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SIVE主交所关闭，OTC流动性极薄，易受小额卖单冲击。
@CryptoVandelay $SIVE 的主要交易所已关闭。场外交易(OTC)市场流动性极薄，一笔小额卖单就可能引发大幅度的百分比波动。
英文原文
@CryptoVandelay $SIVE primary exchange is closed. An OTC market is extremely thin and a small sell order can trigger a large % move.
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LPK因GCS延迟推迟，SIVE供应1.6T/CPO激光器，架构预计27-28年落地。
@whatdahellson 情况略有不同，鉴于三星电机/SKC Absolics 等行业光组件(GCS)的延迟，$LPK 的收入可能已被推迟。 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 长距光学(LRO)、Ayar 共封装光学(CPO)及其他厂商的激光器供应商。 1.6T/CPO 并没有出现可信的延迟，只是在等待资格认证完成以便批量合同下达。这些架构将在 2027-2028 年落地。
英文原文
@whatdahellson It's slightly different since $LPK revenue has likely been delayed given industry GCS delays with Samsung Electro-mechanics/SKC Absolics $SIVE is the laser supplier to $JBL 1.6T LRO, Ayar for CPO, and others. There's been no credible delays to 1.6T/CPO, it's just waiting for their qualifications to finish before volume contracts flow. Those architectures are 2027-2028.