$SIVE
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博主调侃中美欧投资者在AI、估值及交易风格上的刻板印象。
如果我要对我在 X 上的市场经历进行刻板印象总结： 中国：致力于用 AI 克隆我，受 A 股创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)影响，只能从短期时间框架思考交易。 美国：对任何像 $SPCX 这样的未来主义事物都看涨，不在乎估值。 欧洲：从 $SIVE 到 $SOI，
原推 ↗英文原文
If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China : set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America : bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX , don’t care about valuations Europe : from $SIVE to $SOI,
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回顾$SIVE发布3个月涨1900%，称其为第二伟大论点。
自4月我在4瑞典克朗发布$SIVE多头论点以来，已正式过去3个月。 该标的目前涨幅约1900%…… 包括摩根大通(JPM)到富达(Fidelity)在内的许多美国机构才刚刚建仓。 这可能是我继$AXTI之后有史以来第二伟大的论点。 匿名者们，你们听进去了吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK. This idea is now up ~1900%… With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions. Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI . Did you listen anon?
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摩根大通增持$SIVE超5%股权，股价仅微涨3.36%。
惊讶于摩根大通(机构)买入Sivers超5%股权的消息公布后，$SIVE 股价仅上涨3.36%。 且这仅仅是最近一个月内的事。 这是Sivers流通盘首次出现重大机构买入信号。
原推 ↗英文原文
Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers. Just in the last month alone. First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers. https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM
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英伟达点名硅光子与存储，利好SiPH供应链。
此外，$NVDA CEO 也把硅光子(Silicon Photonics，光网络)和存储一起点名。 他表示，英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对硅光子(SiPH)供应链是非常看多的读出，从 $SIVE（现在处于英伟达上游生态）到 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
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区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
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反思自己的投资风格：基于市场尚未理解的信息做判断。
我觉得我个人的投资风格有点不同，算是一些反思： 它本质上是自由裁量式的，基于市场还不知道的东西，也像是人生经历的综合结果。 如果你看 $AXTI、$RPI、$SIVE、$IQE 以及其他名字，很多其实是在猜测……
原推 ↗英文原文
I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on
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公布曝光收益并称将捐给救助机构。
如果你好奇的话： 1.07894491亿次（1亿+）曝光，收入4649美元！ 所有这些钱都会捐给犬只救助，之后会做大额捐赠！ 大约是每救助一只狗600美元，所以它会随着 Serenity 粉丝数量按比例扩大！ 我也相信要把我从 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 上赚到的所有利润……
原推 ↗英文原文
If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI https://t.co/MqFWfvTCgH
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称美国机构正在买入SIVE流通盘。
回复 @tw_crypto_：与此同时，在瑞典那边……美国机构正在买走流通盘。
原推 ↗英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Meanwhile over in Sweden… while US institutions are buying up the float https://t.co/ezOFC0rnqG
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认为SIVE持仓门槛变化更像主经纪商/机构执行。
回复 @764wsrfth：抱歉，但哪个散户持有人能接触到一家瑞典上市公司的股票互换和合成工具？ 达到那个披露门槛，肯定是主经纪商执行，散户没有这种渠道。 这次很可能是更大的美国机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
@764wsrfth I’m sorry but what retail holder has access to equity swaps and synthetic instruments of a Swedish traded company. It’s definitely prime brokerage execution to hit that threshold, which no retail has access to. Likely larger US institutions this time
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警告瑞典对冲基金不要做空SIVE的光子学地位。
回复 @Camilogicly：这正是我一直告诉瑞典对冲基金不要做空 $SIVE 的原因。 因为对美国机构和超大云厂商来说，买下整个 Sivers 流通盘只是零钱。 尤其考虑到它们在光子学中的作用。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Camilogicly Exactly why I keep telling Swedish hedge funds not to go short on $SIVE. Since buying the entire Sivers float is spare change to US institutions and hyperscalers. Especially given their role in photonics.
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称SIVE股权变化主要来自美国机构买入。
回复 @fodacyjosh：要么是摩根大通自己的资产管理部门，要么是对冲基金。 无论哪种，本质上主要都是美国机构买入，而且不知何时在一个月内从0.4%升到5%以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
@fodacyjosh It’s either JP Morgan’s own asset management or hedge funds. Either way, it’s all primarily all US institutional buying and whenever it was went from .4% to 5%+ in a month.
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认为美国机构在试图买入SIVE。
回复 @SEONHYE1101：如果意思是美国机构正在试图买入 $SIVE，那是的。 但如果意思是我不确定摩根大通如何买下 $SIVE 这家公司5%以上，那不是。 也许是足够多散户投降，把股票转给了机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SEONHYE1101 Yes in the sense that US institutions are trying to buy up $SIVE. No in the sense that I’m not sure how JP Morgan to buy 5%+ of $SIVE as a company. Maybe enough retail investors capitulated and transferred their shares to institutions.
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认为摩根大通大举买入证明SIVE对CPO重要。
唉。 我一直告诉散户和瑞典对冲基金，$SIVE 对 CPO 有多重要，但人们不听。 足够多的散户持有人被洗出去了，现在摩根大通成功买入了 Sivers 的大量股份（纯机构）。 摩根大通上个月持股还只有0.4%……
原推 ↗英文原文
Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional). JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month https://t.co/7f3sYuoSmk
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称相关对冲基金创始合伙人离职或与SIVE上涨有关。
回复 @Ailisatlx @zGwmby：“Eric Andersson 选择在5月结束雇佣关系。” 那家对冲基金的创始联席经理离职，很可能是一个重大信号，说明他们的公司因为 $SIVE 上涨而快撑不住了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ailisatlx @zGwmby "Eric Andersson chose to end his employment during the month of May." The founding co-manager of that hedge fund quitting is probably a big sign their firms is going under from $SIVE going up.
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称某机构因SIVE年内亏损31%。
回复 @zGwmby：照这个速度，他们公司因为 $SIVE 年初至今亏损31.02%，快要撑不住了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@zGwmby At this rate their firm is going under being YTD -31.02% from $SIVE. https://t.co/oqh6g6fWjj
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列出其偏好的CPO/光子学供应链标的。
$SIVE 是第1，$AAOI 是第2，上面措辞用错了。 总体上我喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔/CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源组件，$TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装/测试） - Win Semi（代工） - $TSEM（代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器/笼式热管理模块） 还有其他几个。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
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给出1.6T可插拔与NVLink CPO生态放量时间线。
2027年上半年，是所有 1.6T 可插拔玩家，比如 $JBL。 也许 Innolight/Eoptolink 和其他可插拔玩家也会加入。很快会知道，因为 $SIVE 说他们正在与一些未披露的可插拔玩家合作。 2027年下半年，则是 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态里 Ayar 等玩家的主要 CPO 放量应用。 市场通常会提前约8个月前瞻定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar. Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.
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看好SIVE作为AAOI之后最喜欢的CPO/光子学股票。
$SIVE 是我在 AAOI 之后最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，那边还有很多“喜剧演员”提供娱乐。 今天一家新的非技术型对冲基金 Protean Funds（可能在做空）上节目，说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是想象出来的。 这刚好发生在 $GFS 把 $SIVE 设为其参考激光器之后。 给新读者一点背景：瑞典很多人只会看过去12个月收入，不理解前瞻增长概念。 他们也不理解，目前根本还没有任何 CPO 应用真正大规模放量。 所以瑞典对冲基金持续做空，像 Colosseum / Origo 这类基金已经严重亏损。 但对技术读者来说，从2026年下半年到2028年，这个市场会在一年半内从接近0增长到910亿美元 TAM（我们正进入下半年）。 整体 TAM 会达到1410亿美元，也是在一年半内增长10倍以上，而 $SIVE 还通过 $JBL 和其他未披露可插拔玩家切入了可插拔市场。 在 $SIVE 史上最大拐点到来前做空，对瑞典本地机构来说大概率不会有好结果。 放量只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
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称AAOI是当前最喜欢的美国多头并提到JBL/SIVE 1.6T机会。
回复 @DanyloAkymenko：$AAOI 是我目前最喜欢的美国多头。 我个人最近在它跌到150美元，甚至170美元时都会加仓摊高成本。 我认为一旦 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 一起量产，$JBL 应该会表现很好。今天也谈到了 $RDDT。 如果你认为 $MRVL 能到1万亿美元……
原推 ↗英文原文
@DanyloAkymenko $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T
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称质疑者在SOI/RPI/SIVE上反复被打脸。
回复 @Frenchie_：他们在 $SOI、$RPI 和 $SIVE 等所有事情上都一直和我争。 然后一次又一次尴尬。不知道他们会不会学会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Frenchie_ They keep fighting with me with everything from $SOI, $RPI, and $SIVE. Then get embarrassed over and over. Idk if they’re going to learn
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称瑞典Origo基金因做空SIVE大亏。
看到一条关于新瑞典对冲基金的新闻很有趣： Origo 的基金因为做空 $SIVE 损失惨重。 “这是今年最大的亏损之一。” 许多这类瑞典对冲基金现在都已经深度亏损。 这只是 $SIVE 成为……核心部分的一个意外副产品。
原推 ↗英文原文
Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of https://t.co/gD1vMQvQV5
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讨论CHIPS法案资助公司被并购较难，参股或是路径。
回复 @MikeBaumgart1：大型公司很难一时兴起就收购像 $SIVE 这种获得 CHIPS Act 资金支持的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种和政府有关联的公司。 很多企业创投部门有时也会错过。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路径。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会入股 $SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MikeBaumgart1 It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE
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认为Win Semi等代工厂有能力为SIVE扩产。
回复 @chuge857：这取决于 Win Semi 和其他代工厂。Win Semi 刚做了私募来扩大产能，我很有信心他们能为 $SIVE 扩出可观产量。没人知道2027年底或2028年的准确数字，但我相信世界领先代工厂之一。 不过……
原推 ↗英文原文
@chuge857 Up to Win Semi and other foundries. Win Semi just did a private placement to scale up capacity, pretty confident they can scale up significant volume for $SIVE. Nobody knows the exact figures for late 2027 or 2028, but confident in one of the world’s leading foundries. But
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坚定持有SIVE，认为本地投资者不理解前瞻增长。
回复 @user637826：我对自己的 $SIVE 论点兑现很有信心，一股都不会卖。 我曾在6瑞典克朗时试图告诉瑞典本地人，他们这家前沿公司有多有吸引力，但他们因为不理解前瞻增长这个概念，把股票都转给了美国散户。
原推 ↗英文原文
@user637826 I’m confident in my $SIVE thesis playing out and am not selling a single share. I tried to tell Swedish locals back at 6 SEK how compelling their frontier company was but they all transferred their shares to US retail since they couldn’t understand the concept of forward
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称SIVE不是垄断，而是在ASIC/Merchant CPO架构路线具技术主导。
回复 @SidkMena：这不是垄断。只是它在 ASIC / merchant CPO 路由架构上拥有技术主导地位。 如果其他可插拔玩家也用 $SIVE 创造新的 1.6T 架构，我也不会惊讶。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SidkMena It’s not a monopoly. Just technical dominance over ASIC/Merchant CPO route architectures . And wouldn’t be surprised if other pluggable players created novel 1.6T architectures using $SIVE too.
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反驳关于SIVE内部人卖股的空头信息。
回复 @Raccoononomics：那是空头编造的信息。CEO 最近在公开市场买入了股票。 无线部门董事几个月前卖股，对光子学放量没有任何影响。 我大概就在那段时间买下了他所有的股票，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Raccoononomics That’s fabricated information from short sellers. The CEO bought shares on the open market recently. Having the director of the wireless department sell shares months ago has no effect on the photonics scale up. I probably bought all his shares around the time lol
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认为SIVE可能是明年CPO的关键瓶颈。
$SIVE 看起来像是明年 CPO 的关键 chokepoint 和 bottleneck。 我不断看到非技术人士发布的信息漏掉了所有细节。 原因如下： 1. $LITE 财报已经发出信号，CW 激光器存在瓶颈。 激光器晶圆厂产能大量分配给 EML……
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML
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称SIVE是最近最明显、仍在重估的CPO激光瓶颈。
回复 @_king142：$SIVE 可能是最近最明显、仍在重估中的激光器瓶颈，因为它似乎出现在每个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态伙伴以及 merchant/ASIC CPO 供应链里。 也许下一个是 CPO 中的无源光组件供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_king142 $SIVE was probably the most recent visible laser chokepoint that’s still being rerated since seem to be in every $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem partner + merchant/asic cpo supply chains. Maybe passive optical components supply chains in CPO next.
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称欧洲应强化细分垄断和主权供应链韧性。
回复 @BilalElmou89932：欧洲在 AI 竞赛中没有机会与美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的细分垄断/瓶颈，以及主权供应链韧性。 不过我认为他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BilalElmou89932 Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho.
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认为SIVE空头可能加仓，但会随更多公告被击垮。
回复 @Jayden11129225：可能有活跃空头正在加倍做空 $SIVE。我预计他们随着时间会被打爆。 尤其是在更多公告出来后。 如果再有一个类似 $JBL 的惊喜公告，比如和 Innolight 这样的人合作，会很有意思。 因为 Sivers 正在共同开发/认证……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jayden11129225 There's active short sellers probably doubling down on $SIVE. I'd expect them to get wrecked over time. Especially on more announcements. One more surprise $JBL type announcement with someone like Innolight would be interesting. Since Sivers is co-developing/qualifying with
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说明讨论的是ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO生态伙伴而非英伟达自身。
回复 @siflower：那是 $NVDA 直接相关。我说的是 ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO 生态伙伴。 在这些伙伴里，$SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.
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通过Ayar投资关系推导SIVE在CPO供应链中的确认。
回复 @Uri62223094：这是供应链确认。我知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资者，所以我会假设他们想要某种类似 NVLink 生态的战略合作。 $AMD 也投资了 Ayar，所以 $AMD 选择 $GFS 做 CPO，也让人能通过 Ayar 把1+1和 $SIVE 连起来。 联发科和 $INTC……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Uri62223094 its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC
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认为NVDA CPO生态第一代可能大量以SIVE为主供。
回复 @OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong：Celestial 和 Lightmatter 尝试多源采购是预期之内。 但我猜第一代里，$NVDA CPO NVLink 生态很多会由 $SIVE 单一供应/主供应。 英伟达自己也有与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的项目。
原推 ↗英文原文
@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.
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认为SIVE若当前估值60-80亿美元也不意外，纳斯达克上市可缩小折价。
回复 @MindQuest42：如果 $SIVE 今天以60-80亿美元估值交易，我不会惊讶。 话虽如此，它仍然在瑞典交易所上市，但纳斯达克上市应该会缩小这个差距。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MindQuest42 If $SIVE were trading at $6-8B valuations today, I wouldn't be surprised. That being said, its still on a Swedish exchange, but NASDAQ listing should close the gap.
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梳理NVDA CPO生态中SIVE作为激光供应商的确认度。
回复 @Chi_w_wong：$NVDA CPO 生态 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天加入）。 $SIVE 100% 确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 很高概率是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 都使用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是参考激光器。 Sivers = ……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Chi_w_wong $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers =
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称Ayar加入NVLink Fusion后，SIVE可能成为整个NVLink CPO生态激光源。
猜猜看，朋友？ 在今天 Ayar 加入 Nvidia NVLink Fusion 的新消息之后。 $SIVE 现在很可能成为： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 已列供应链生态伙伴的激光源。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天的 Ayar（三个都列在 NVLink……）
原推 ↗英文原文
GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink https://t.co/DAlXSOpMYH
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称当天SIVE有比EU CHIPS Act更重大的新闻。
回复 @ConfusedNDazzed：今天 $SIVE 实际上有比 EU CHIPS Act 政策框架公告更大的新闻。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ConfusedNDazzed There's actually even bigger news for $SIVE today than the EU CHIPS Act policy framework announcements.
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认为SIVE/XFAB更匹配EU政策激励，SOI/NOK已更成熟。
回复 @aphexinvests：所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经更成熟。 我更深入看了，提案重点是3000万到5亿资金和收入激励，用来把放量前生产玩家桥接到高量制造(HVM)。 $SIVE / $XFAB 更符合政策激励，但我也不会惊讶……
原推 ↗英文原文
@aphexinvests So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised
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欧洲技术主权包和CHIPS Act 2.0突出光子学，利好XFAB/SIVE。
欧洲将在今天6月3日发布技术主权一揽子计划。 其中包括 CHIPS Act 2.0，预计会优先考虑光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 都在指导欧盟立法的产业政策蓝图中被重点提及。 这提出了主权支持……
原推 ↗英文原文
Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing https://t.co/WWBlo5o1tL
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称SIVE成为NVDA NVLink Fusion生态激光供应商是重大新闻。
回复 @beauty_oe：我知道！$SIVE 成为 $NVDA NVLink Fusion 生态的激光供应商，这是非常大的新闻。 Marvell 几个月前加入后，看看它市值发生了什么。 我今天晚些时候会讲。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!
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类比LITE光学浪潮，认为SIVE也可从30亿走向750亿。
$LITE 在第一波光学浪潮中，靠 EML 和可插拔从30亿美元涨到750亿美元，用了2年时间。 我的论点是，$SIVE 可以靠 CPO/可插拔和 CW 从30亿美元做到同样的事。 Sivers + GFS 硅光子参考激光器新闻，加上今天上涨54%。 这只是路上的一步。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
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路透报道Sivers与GFS战略合作，SIVE激光将进入GFS硅光子参考设计。
你听了吗，朋友？ 路透：Sivers x GFS 新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，其激光器将被整合进基于 GlobalFoundries 硅光子平台构建的参考设计。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和 SiPH。 这在基本面上……
原推 ↗英文原文
DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally https://t.co/EbVuvz9c80
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称GFS新闻比SIVE+JBL更根本，因为默认嵌入参考设计。
回复 @wangxindian @StormDirac：我不确定人们是否已经意识到这条 $GFS 新闻对 $SIVE 的重大意义。 它在基本面上可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更具开创性。 因为 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA 或任何通过 GFS 硅光子的公司，都会默认把 $SIVE 嵌入参考设计。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.
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引用Sivers激光阵列进入GF硅光子参考设计，称结构性重大。
回复 @StormDirac：“Sivers Semiconductors 的激光阵列将被整合进基于 GF 硅光子平台构建的参考设计。” 哇，这对 $SIVE 和 $GFS 是结构性重大新闻。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StormDirac “Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform.” Woah that’s structurally massive news with $SIVE and $GFS.
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称发现传播SIVE错误信息的账号集群。
提醒一下，我发现了一个机器人账号群，过去几天有几十个账号被用来传播关于 $SIVE 的错误信息。 这场非法活动地理上很可能来自亚洲。 因为这些账号曾被用于为同一些亚洲项目做营销，比如 Alchemy……
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a heads up, I've uncovered a bot farm with dozens of accounts used to spread disinformation about $SIVE in the past few days. This illegal campaign likely stems geographically from Asia. As these accounts were used to do marketing for the same Asian projects like Alchemy https://t.co/xjRyZWJwV9
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SIVE作为光子学激光瓶颈，获GFS/JBL等公开验证。
-> IP 收购 -> 只是等待 CPO 起飞 $SIVE 是光子学的激光瓶颈，并已被公开验证： - $GFS（根据演示，是 CPO 两家公开激光供应商之一，另一家是 $LITE） - $JBL（与 Sivers 构建的可插拔产品拥有“相当显著的护城河”） -
原推 ↗英文原文
-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) -
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指出SIVE本来就是瑞典公司。
回复 @Zeynfnr1：$SIVE 字面上就是瑞典公司，你不知道国家吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
@Zeynfnr1 $SIVE is literally Swedish, do you not know countries
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批评混淆不同架构和客户时间线并用SIVE错误信息获利。
回复 @StormDirac：是的，把不同架构和客户时间线混在一起，是极其不诚实的。 然后还试图用关于 $SIVE 的错误信息获利。 但就 Citron 和 $AAOI 来看，在超级周期中做空光学公司结果并不好。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StormDirac Yeah, it's extremely disingenuous to conflate different architectures, customers timelines. And try to profit off false information with $SIVE. But with Citron and $AAOI, didnt turn out very well shorting optical companies in supercycles.
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反驳SIVE空头，称MRVL Celestial可能直接向SIVE买激光器。
有一个新的 $SIVE 空头，完全不知道自己在说什么。 1. $MRVL Celestial 很可能直接购买激光器，$SIVE 是激光供应商，而不是通过 $POET。 因为自2023年以来，它们就被识别为可能的直接客户。 一个类比是如果 O-Net / ……
原推 ↗英文原文
There's a new $SIVE short seller with 0 clue what they're talking about. 1. $MRVL Celestial is likely buying lasers directly with $SIVE as the laser supplier, not through $POET. As they've been identified as a likely direct customer since 2023. An analogy is if O-Net / https://t.co/XDrPS6OVNG
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认为光学股上涨来自极端前瞻收入增长而非其做多。
回复 @ethics3606：不是，很遗憾，我去年做多 $LITE 并不会像公众舆论说的那样把它推到700亿美元市值。 它们都由极端的前瞻收入增长驱动，比如 $AAOI 从2027年下半年开始每月4.71亿美元。 以及 $SIVE 总前瞻收入管线单季度增长77%，从……
原推 ↗英文原文
@ethics3606 No, unfortunately me going long on $LITE last year doesn’t send it to a $70B MC, unlike public opinion. they’re all driven by extreme forward revenhe growth, $AAOI $471m / month starting H2 2027. And $SIVE total forward revenue pipelines growing 77% in a single quarter, from
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认为光子学市场是跟随龙头的算法卖出，忽视个体基本面改善。
当前光子学市场主要只是“跟随龙头”的算法卖出。 大多数激光/光学相关公司，从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，似乎都和 $LITE 表现绑定在一起…… 尽管个体基本面正在改善。例如 AOI 与 $AMD / $NVDA 的讨论。 算法不会……
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s mainly just “follow the leader” algorithmic selloff in current photonics markets. Most laser/optical related companies from $AAOI to $SIVE seem tied to $LITE performance… Despite individual fundamentals improving. Eg. (AOI with $AMD / $NVDA discussions). Algorithms don’t https://t.co/gBm50DRqFj
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称没有自己SIVE也会很好，只是可能由机构持有。
回复 @JohanAn37323972：$SIVE 没有我也会很好。 唯一的区别是，它现在可能已经90%由机构持有，而不是由美国散户持有。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JohanAn37323972 $SIVE would do just fine without me. The only difference is it would be 90% institutional owned by now instead of US retail.
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推测Innolight等未垂直整合激光器的可插拔玩家可能使用SIVE。
回复 @WuKongWAGMI：我能想到的主要可插拔玩家里，只有少数没有像 $LITE 和 $COHR 那样垂直整合激光器。 所以 Innolight 是可能的。 $SIVE 用了复数暗示有多个玩家，所以很可能还有几个。
原推 ↗英文原文
@WuKongWAGMI There’s only a few major pluggable players that I can think of that don’t vertically integrate lasers like $LITE and $COHR. So Innolight is possible. $SIVE hinted at multiple players since this plural, so there’s likely a few more.
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认为新可插拔光收发器客户是SIVE最大TAM扩张和收入驱动。
这是 $SIVE 最大的 TAM 扩张和收入驱动，市场还没有注意到。 Sivers 正在积极与新的可插拔光收发器公司合作。 在 Jabil 1.6T LRO 使用 Sivers 激光器实现“相当显著的护城河”之后。 “正在积极合作”，所以……
原推 ↗英文原文
This is the biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver with $SIVE, markets haven’t noticed. Sivers is actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies. After Jabil 1.6T LRO used Sivers lasers to achieve a “relatively dramatic moat”. “Actively working”, so https://t.co/NYGMP7tyV4
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称围绕SIVE的瑞典文化冲突只是波动，最终控制权转向美国。
回复 @159Adir52550：这场文化之战只是正常波动，应该拥抱并一笑置之，因为这就是瑞典剩余控制权流失的方式。 我其实曾试图帮助瑞典散户理解 $SIVE 有多特别，但“高罂粟综合征”到现在大概已经深植于多数人的文化中了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@159Adir52550 This cultural battle is just normal volatility to embrace and laugh at, since this is how the remainder of Sweden loses control. I actually tried to help Swedish retail about how special $SIVE was but “tall poppy syndrome” is probably ingrained culturally for most at this point.
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称若SIVE跌回低位会考虑发基金买下，因JBL放量和更多客户在路上。
回复 @Path21Mil：如果 $SIVE 真跌到那些水平，我可能会考虑发一个基金直接把它买下来，哈哈。 考虑到 $JBL 可插拔放量和更多光收发器客户正在推进，我不认为它还能再回到那里。 也不确定他们是在为谁分析，瑞典人不……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Path21Mil I’d probably consider launching a fund to just buy out $SIVE if it reached those levels lol. Don’t think it’s possible to go there again, given $JBL pluggable ramp and more optical transceiver customers underway. Also not sure who they’re analyzing for, Swedish folks don’t
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称自己的瓶颈投资理论可能被历史研究，涉及AXTI/SOI/SIVE。
我在想，我的瓶颈投资理论…… 从 $AXTI 到 $SOI 再到 $SIVE，将来会不会被写进历史书研究？ 无论如何，我认为这里的每个人都是创造历史的一部分。 因为从路透社到机构再到各国，都在对 Serenity 引发的供应链博弈论作出反应。
原推 ↗英文原文
I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.
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信任SIVE管理层，若像SNAP才会更激进维权。
回复 @AsianbeBlazin：因为我相信 $SIVE 管理层自己知道该怎么做。 如果他们像 $SNAP 那样运营，我会更激进地做维权投资。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AsianbeBlazin Because I’m confident $SIVE management knows what to do by themselves. If they operated like $SNAP I’d be more activist.
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高度认可SIVE管理层，并看好纳斯达克双重上市路径。
回复 @_king142：不知道，只是把我的观点公开抛出来。 但到目前为止，我对 $SIVE 管理层极其、极其印象深刻。我认为他们很快通过 NASDAQ 双重上市走在正确道路上。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_king142 No clue, just floating out my opinion into the public. But I’m extremely, extremely impressed with $SIVE management so far. And I think they’re heading down the right path with NASDAQ dual listing soon.
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认为SIVE因美国客户、股东和CHIPS支持而适合美国化。
回复 @Noamneo_：$SIVE 是一个极其特殊的案例，因为它已经通过客户、股权结构、CHIPS Act 等拥有重大美国存在。 主要留在瑞典、面对一个试图阻碍其增长的本地市场，并不理想。 我不会说同样的迁址对其他公司也一定正确……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Noamneo_ $SIVE is an extremely singular case just because of major US presence already from customers, cap table, CHIPS acts, and others. Staying primarily in Sweden with a local market that tries to hinder their growth, isn’t ideal. I wouldn’t say the same redomestication is the right
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主张SIVE应成为完整美国公司，纳斯达克上市是第一步。
我认为 $SIVE 应该直接成为一家完整的美国公司，并把 NASDAQ 上市作为第一步。 > 美国股权结构/大型持股 + 已有美国 CHIPS Act 支持 > 更高估值溢价 + 并购机会 > 瑞典本地媒体来自深度亏损者的明显错误信息……
原推 ↗英文原文
I think $SIVE should just become a full American company, and use NASDAQ listing as the first step. > US cap table / large ownership + US CHIPS act support already > larger valuation premiums + M&A opportunities. > local Swedish media blatant disinformation from underwater
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称质疑者从SIVE上涨1000%前就叫其迷因股。
回复 @softmaxedx：是的，那些 0-10 ghost/TP nunu 玩家从1000%以前就一直把 Jabil/Ayar/Apple/Celestial 激光供应商叫作迷因股。
原推 ↗英文原文
@softmaxedx Yeah, the 0-10 ghost/TP nunu mains have been calling Jabil/Ayar/Apple/Celestial laser supplier a memestock since 1000% ago.
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复盘市场对SIVE从怀疑客户到怀疑执行再到份额的阶段性误解。
> 市场从怀疑 $SIVE 的客户（1.5亿美元市值）开始 结果这些客户很可能是 $JBL、Ayar、$AAPL、国防主承包商、$MRVL Celestial 等公司。 > 到怀疑其执行能力（6亿美元市值） 结果如果走 Win Semi 路线，就可以跳过资本开支。 > 再到怀疑它能拿到多少份额……
原推 ↗英文原文
> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs
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JBL证明SIVE作为1.6T LRO唯一激光供应商需求强劲。
回复 @halldj00：你已经有 $JBL 这个例子，确认了过量需求，并且 $SIVE 预计是其 1.6T LRO 的唯一激光供应商。 我对此并不担心。更多是看 Jabil 或 Ayar，然后看到一旦它们放量，规模如何回流到 Sivers。 而且我会……
原推 ↗英文原文
@halldj00 You already have $JBL as one example, confirming excessive demand with $SIVE expected sole source laser provider for their 1.6T LRO. Don’t really have concerns there. It’s more about looking Jabil or Ayar, then seeing that scale flow back to Sivers once those ramps. And I’d
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认为纳斯达克上市15%融资足以收购有价值IP扩展光子学TAM。
回复 @Xecvvv：不，NASDAQ 上市中提到的15%应该足够收购有价值的 IP，用来沿光子学链条扩展 TAM。 你会惊讶的，在 els/engine + 可插拔栈里有很多被低估的公司，包括私人公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Xecvvv No, 15% cited from NASDAQ listing should be enough to acquire valuable IP for TAM expansion down photonics chain. You’d be surprised, there’s a lot of undervalued companies in the els/engine + pluggable stack, including private companies.
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JBL收购部分英特尔光收发器业务，使其能与SIVE合作。
回复 @onlyonexhj：$JBL 收购了 $INTC 光收发器部门的一部分，这就是他们能和 $SIVE 做现在这些事情的方式。
原推 ↗英文原文
@onlyonexhj $JBL acquired part of $INTC optical transceiver division, which is how they’re able to do what they’re doing with $SIVE.
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SIVE财报电话会看多：JBL合作带来更多光收发器请求。
我花了更多时间看 $SIVE 财报电话会记录，非常看多： - $JBL 可插拔合作为 $SIVE 带来了更多光收发器请求。 所以我猜也许是 Innolight/Eoptolink 和其他大玩家。 - 在 Win Semi 之外还有更多激光产能……
原推 ↗英文原文
Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. - More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more https://t.co/ZaptyNiSv1
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随机预测一年后AAOI/SIVE/Foci/Shunsin市值。
回复 @Batemanzm75：我来随便做一个一年后的预测： $AAOI - 700亿美元市值 $SIVE - 300亿美元市值 Foci - 150亿美元市值 Shunsin - 100亿美元市值
原推 ↗英文原文
@Batemanzm75 I’m gonna go ahead and make a random prediction in a year: $AAOI - $70B MC $SIVE - $30B MC Foci - $15B MC Shunsin - $10B MC
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认为AAOI、SIVE、Foci、Shunsin当前风险收益最好。
- $AAOI 120亿美元 - $SIVE 20亿美元 - Foci 28亿美元 - Shunsin 20亿美元 在我看来，这些通常是目前最好的风险/回报。之前我的很多答案，比如 $AXTI，已经涨了10倍，所以这次阵容不同。 $AAOI 是因为产能爬坡带来的2027年上半年荒谬收入预测，正在做所有事情……
原推 ↗英文原文
- $AAOI at $12B - $SIVE at $2B - Foci at $2.8B - Shunsin at $2B Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time. $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything
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认为SIVE 60%毛利率显示极强定价权。
回复 @ram_blings：不是1:1，但 $LITE 毛利率大约45-48%。 $SIVE 能有60%毛利率，是极强的定价权。 而且这还叠加在指数级增长的收入管线上……并且处在 CPO 超级周期刚开始的时候。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ram_blings Not 1:1 but $LITE gross margins are ~45-48%. Having 60% gross margins for $SIVE is extreme pricing power. And that’s on top of exponentially growing revenue pipelines… at the very beginning of the CPO supercycle.
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称SIVE CEO关于需求的回答大幅去风险。
回复 @KPACTAFXAMCTEP：谢谢你问了那个问题。 $SIVE CEO 的回答绝对是传奇级别。 这类关于需求的回答，让 Sivers 大幅去风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KPACTAFXAMCTEP Thanks for asking that question. What an absolutely legendary response from $SIVE CEO. And this type of answer around demand just derisks Sivers a ton.
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SIVE称需求远超供应且未来60%毛利率，作者认为极度看多。
天啊，这是我目前从 $SIVE 听到的最看多的内容。 来自财报电话会记录： “当需求远远超过供应时，我们不看竞争对手”（字面意思是他们生产的任何东西都会被买走）。 同时还有：“我们认为未来毛利率为60%”（极其……）
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy crap, this is the most bullish thing I’ve heard from $SIVE so far. From earnings transcripts: “We do not look at competitors when demand far outstrips supply” (literally anything they make gets bought) Along with: “We see 60% gross margins in the future” (incredibly https://t.co/6u3LSTQofy
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SIVE三个月内收入管线增长77%，显示CPO超级周期拐点。
$SIVE 基本上拿到了公司整个历史上的全部收入管线。 然后在前三个月把它增长了77%。 这是目前最清晰的 CPO 超级周期拐点信号。 从现在开始，它大概率会呈现指数级增长。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE basically took their entire revenue pipeline. In the entire company’s history. Then grew that by 77% in the first 3 months. Thats by far the clearest indication of the inflection of the CPO supercycle. It’s probably going to look exponential from here on out. https://t.co/81pYk3Y36V
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极度看多SIVE，因前瞻增长77%、JBL放量确认和多个量产启动。
回复 @DeJeff48985：极度看多 $SIVE。 我对自己持有名字的财报一向非常直白诚实。 我们从整个公司管线中看到了单季度77%的前瞻增长信号。 $JBL 放量确认。 然后还有多个量产爬坡开始……
原推 ↗英文原文
@DeJeff48985 Extremely bullish on $SIVE. I’m very brutally honest when it comes to earnings reports on the names I own. We got 77% forward growth indications from the entire company’s pipelines… over a single quarter. $JBL ramp confirmation. Then multiple volume ramp production starts
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强调SIVE收入管线几个月内环比增长77%。
回复 @BigKaiWang：环比增长77%。 基本上是公司多年来的整个收入管线，在2026年前几个月增长了77%。 $SIVE 展现出荒谬的前瞻增长信号。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BigKaiWang Sequential 77% growth. Basically entire company revenue pipeline from all these years. And it increased 77% in the first few months of 2026. Absurd forward growth indications coming from $SIVE.
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强调SIVE单季度77%增长代表前瞻收入结构性转变。
回复 @cobra_mindset1：单季度增长77%。这是从公司整个经营历史至今的基数上实现的。 我不确定市场是否意识到这个数字有多高，以及它代表前瞻收入增长信号出现结构性转变。 到目前为止，这对 $SIVE 的论点验证极其正面。
原推 ↗英文原文
@cobra_mindset1 77% growth in 1 single quarter. From the entire company’s operating history to date. I’m not sure if markets realize how high that is and represents a structural shift in forward revenue growth indications. Extremely positive in regards to $SIVE thesis validation so far.
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SIVE前瞻收入预测单季度增长77%，验证放量预期。
回复 @chrisoc9999：前瞻收入预测增长77%…… 单季度做到这个增长高得荒谬，并验证了 $SIVE 的放量预期。 这正是你希望从认证周期玩家那里听到的内容，再加上“多个量产爬坡”开始。 而这应该……
原推 ↗英文原文
@chrisoc9999 77% growth of forward revenue projections… Over a single quarter is absurdly high growth. And validates volume ramp expectations with $SIVE. Just want you want to hear from qualification cycle players, along with “multiple volume ramp” production start. And that should
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看SIVE财报应关注前瞻增长而非预开发合同收入。
看 $SIVE 财报唯一要关注的是前瞻增长。 没人关心2025年或上季度的预开发合同收入，尤其对认证周期中的光学玩家来说。 机会管线（收入放量预测）增长77%，才是重点……
原推 ↗英文原文
Only thing to look at with $SIVE earnings is forward growth. Nobody cares about pre-development contract earnings from 2025 or last quarter, especially for qualification cycle optical players. Having 77% growth of opportunity pipelines (revenue volume ramp projections), to https://t.co/aV2wtQqr4P
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复盘欧洲媒体曾称RPI为迷因股，后被业绩打脸。
几个月前，一家欧洲媒体把我的 $RPI 想法称为： - “群体愚蠢” 并说： - $RPI 股价会“崩回现实” 然后称它为： - “迷因股”。 财报出来后呢？收入预期被大幅打爆。 很有意思，媒体可以写下这么多诽谤…… 等结果变得很难看时，又假装从没发生过。 从 $SOI 到 $SIVE，媒体诽谤的数量相当惊人。
原推 ↗英文原文
Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea: - “mass stupidity” And said: - $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality” Then called it a: - “Meme stock”. Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations. It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander… Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly. Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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Ayar与Wiwynn公告对SIVE CPO机架级部署潜力重大。
Ayar 今天与 Wiwynn 的公告，对 $SIVE 在 CPO -> 机架级部署方面可能非常重要。 Wiwynn 的云客户包括 $AMZN、$META、$MSFT。 而且他们一直在谈 $GOOGL TPU 部署。 我认为，仅供参考架构来看，每个机架大约需要512+个 SuperNova 光源。 所以如果 $SIVE 是主要激光阵列供应商（我们预计如此，因为 Macom + Lumentum 已从 Ayar 网站移除）。 即使是中等规模的机架部署，也会对收入非常有意义。 这只是 $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn 当前机架级商业化潜力，还不会体现在收入财务中。
原推 ↗英文原文
Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.
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MRVL财报验证CPO主题和Celestial放量，间接指向SIVE激光需求。
$MRVL 财报是更广泛 CPO 主题的看多信号（也包括 $SIVE 作为可能的激光供应商）。 - “Scale-up interconnect 是 AI 基础设施中最新、最具战略意义的新兴机会之一。” CPO 主题 go brrr。 - 确认 Celestial 被 T1 超大云厂商选中用于 scale-up。 我过去发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 认股权证……所以很可能是 Amazon。 - 明年带 Celestial 的 scale-up 光学收入应该超过此前约1.5亿美元预期的2倍。 前瞻收入爬坡预期 go brrr。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队是“全垒打”。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长向量，上游 Celestial 供应商受益。 - $MRVL 现在专注于把 Celestial 推向高量制造。 这是放量指标。 如果你不记得，此前有 OSINT 映射显示 $SIVE 直接对应 Celestial，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的前瞻增长，是 Sivers 激光器的放量指标。
原推 ↗英文原文
$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.
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回顾AAOI/AXTI早期被FUD，如今类似CPO转折正在SIVE/Foci上重演。
当我在 $AAOI 约20-30美元做多时： 我以为 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 正在为其 ASIC 项目认证特定光收发器。 结果它更可互换、更可大规模生产。 无论如何，很高兴我关于 $LITE、$AAOI、Innolight、$COHR、$AXTI 的 thesis 表现这么好。 记住：当 $AAOI 在20-30美元时，X 上所有人都说“管理层诈骗”…… 或者在 $AXTI 12美元时说“诈骗公司”。 FUD 非常极端。 现在感觉又像似曾相识……做多下一轮 CPO 架构转变，比如 $SIVE 或 Foci？然后收到同样评论。 我们会看看我的 CPO 多头是否会像 Shunsin 对 Innolight、或 $SIVE 对 $LITE 那样兑现。 无论如何，那些名字现在都已经上涨数百到数千个百分点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Back when $AAOI was ~$20-30 when I went long: I thought $AMZN and $MSFT were qualifying specific optical transceivers for their ASIC programs. Turns out it’s more interchangeable/mass producible. Regardless, glad my thesis on $LITE, $AAOI, Innolight, $COHR, $AXTI played out so well. Keep in mind: everyone on X was saying “scam management” with $AAOI back at $20-30… Or “scam company” with $AXTI at $12. FUD was pretty extreme. Feels like dejavu again… going long on the next CPO architectural shift like $SIVE or Foci? And getting the same comments. We’ll see if my CPO longs play out the same way like Shunsin does with Innolight or $SIVE does with $LITE. Either way all of those are now up hundreds to thousands of percent.
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认为光子学无新闻下跌是有吸引力主题的波动，自己在加仓。
今天光子学无新闻下跌挺有意思？ $LITE -4.95% $AAOI -4.85% $SIVE -14.8% $SOI -5.73% $AXTI -8.13% $IQE -12.13% 我认为它可能是未来最有吸引力的主题（甚至超过功率半导体）。 只是上涨途中往往非常波动。 不过我对 $AAOI 有些惊讶，因为显然有机构报告提到与 $AMD 或 $NVDA 的长期协议（Rosenblatt）。也许6亿美元 ATM 限制了近期上行。 $SIVE 也是，考虑到下周 EU Chips Act 2 围绕光子学，而它们列在蓝图中。下周还有 MSCI/NASDAQ OMX 资金流入。 我个人一直在加仓，因为我对光子学主题（尤其是 CPO）有高信念，原因是未来两年整体 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
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认为SIVE/SOI/XFAB可能获得EU Chips Act 2资金。
是的，如果看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 获得 EU Chips Act 2 资金，我不会惊讶。 很高兴我在那里所有多头（除了 $IQE）都列在蓝图中，我之前研究时还没看到！ 不过正式公告看起来推迟到下周了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
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称SIVE错误信息来自空头机器人账号和本地媒体。
我一直想知道为什么关于 $SIVE 有这么多不理性的错误信息。 结果发现空头一直在运营机器人账号活动来传播错误信息。 也可能通过本地新闻媒体传播。 希望他们现在的空头仓位被打爆。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE. Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation. And likely through local news media too. Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now. https://t.co/U3Euy391l8
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EU Chips Act 2预计聚焦光子学，SIVE是欧洲领先光子/激光公司。
提示一下，EU Chips Act 2 是今天，5月27日。 这次预计会专门针对光子学。 欧洲正好有一家位于瑞典的领先光子/激光公司叫 $SIVE。 它也获得了美国 CHIPS Act 资金，并且对西方供应链至关重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
FYI, EU Chips Act 2 is today, May 27th. This one is expected to be targeted specially around photonics. There happens to Europe’s leading photonics/laser company called $SIVE over in Sweden. That also received US CHIPS act funding and is critical to Western supply chains. https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq
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称瑞典正把SIVE控制权转移给西方和其他国家。
瑞典正在把 $SIVE 的控制权转移给西方和其他国家…… 老实说，看图表还挺有趣。
原推 ↗英文原文
Swedens transferring control of $SIVE to the West + other countries… Is honestly fun to watch in the charts. https://t.co/zNfWatAm4S
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认为SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO敞口，核心激光供应商多已数百亿美元估值。
$SIVE 是我看来最有吸引力的 CPO 敞口股票。 尽管有波动。 在多年后下一次光子学架构转变之前，你可能不会再找到这样的东西。 在核心激光供应商中，它们都已经是数百亿美元级别？ $AAOI = 150亿美元 Furukawa……
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa https://t.co/bPCZdDKXhZ
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JBL称1.6T LRO三到十个月内量产且需求过量，SIVE可能是唯一激光供应商。
$JBL 在炉边谈话中直接宣布…… 其 1.6T LRO 将在3-10个月内量产，并且需求过量。 $SIVE 很可能是这一特定光收发器的唯一激光供应商。 Ayar 最近融资5亿美元用于放量，而 $SIVE 是主要/……
原推 ↗英文原文
$JBL literally announced in their fireside chat… Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months. $SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver. Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / https://t.co/e9zTspSgFk
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用星战梗概括太空、激光和机器人主题。
我完全相信股市在暗中围绕建造死星和战斗机器人运转： $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = 死星 $LASR / $SIVE = 激光束 $TSLA / Unitree = 战斗机器人
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m fully convinced the Stock Market secretly revolves around building the Death Star and Battle Droids: $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = Death Star $LASR / $SIVE = Laser Beams $TSLA / Unitree = Battle Droids https://t.co/C53qKjWrS8
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用私有CPO玩家估值论证SIVE作为上游激光瓶颈应获得更高估值。
给试图做 $SIVE 估值分析的人： Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 今天大概估值约40亿到150亿美元以上。 Sivers 市值约26亿美元，而且很可能是它们所有人的上游激光供应商。 我甚至还没把 Poet、TFLN 相关的 Hyperlight/Lightium，或 Jabil 和其他未披露可插拔玩家纳入估值分析。 也没包括 CHIPS Act 合同、Apple/Nokia 关系，或 Aeva 等人形/物理 AI 业务。 散户对私募市场不太熟悉……但这些公司都被视为前沿 CPO 玩家，并且估值和规模都在迅速增长。 所以我预计 $SIVE 应该获得类似甚至更高估值，因为它有激光瓶颈溢价。尤其是在它通过并购扩展 TAM 和收入之后。 下个月 BlackRock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ 新资金流入会随时间缩小差距。 但 NASDAQ 上市可能才是真正给 Sivers 溢价的因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis. Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships. Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others. Retail aren't as familiar with private markets... But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly. So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue. New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time. But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.
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调侃AXTI和SIVE之后自己值得一部Netflix特别节目。
在 $AXTI 和 $SIVE 之后，我觉得我值得拥有自己的 Netflix 特别节目？
原推 ↗英文原文
I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE? https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg
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称SIVE仍极早，机构被动流入和NASDAQ上市将带来更多美国机构。
你听了吗，朋友？ $SIVE 还极其早期。 我们下周将首次看到大量机构流入（BlackRock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再叠加很快的 NASDAQ 上市，以及更多美国机构进入。 这就是处在 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类名字最早期时的感觉。 而且现在仍处在主要机构资本尚未进入流通盘、CPO 超级周期尚未爬坡之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.
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列出SIVE受益于NASDAQ指数纳入、BlackRock/Vanguard被动买入、美国政府支持等新事件。
$SIVE 是这个周末全新事件的最大受益者： 1. Sivers 新纳入 NASDAQ 指数（OMX Stockholm）： Vanguard 和 BlackRock 都是新的被动资金流入。 加上下一周的 MSCI，对现有流通盘将有约6000万美元以上纯买入压力。 2. 美国政府和瑞典签署联合技术合作协议。 $SIVE 是少数 CHIPS Act 受益者之一，尤其是在瑞典。 如果你不记得，它们上周还获得了另一笔660万美元 CHIPS Act 奖励。 这让 $SIVE 得到美国政府大力支持，并对其至关重要。 简而言之：来自 BlackRock/Vanguard 这类最大美国机构的新被动资金流入，叠加美国政府支持。 这对基本面（来自五角大楼供应链的收入/TAM）和 BlackRock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ 流入都利好。 极度看多。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is the largest beneficiary of brand new events this weekend: 1. Sivers new NASDAQ index inclusion (OMX Stockholm): Both Vanguard and Blackrock are new passive inflows. With ~$60M+ pure buying pressure inflow, into existing float, together with MSCI next week. 2. US Gov and Sweden sign agreement for joint tech collaboration. $SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden. And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week. Making $SIVE heavily supported + critical to the US government. - TLDR: New passive institutional inflow from your largest US institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard. Compounded with US government backing into $SIVE. Over the weekend. Beneficial for fundamentals (revenue/TAM from Pentagon supply chains) and inflow from Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ. Extremely bullish.
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中文长文：列出多个实质性垄断瓶颈，并讨论SIVE、HIMX、Foci等design-in/out风险。
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的： - MSSCORP（6830）：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅（SOI）衬底市场。 - NGK（5333）：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂（TFLN）晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟（InP）衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯（Shunsin）这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地。 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence（壁仞供应商）、Lightmatter、Celestial 等行业领军者。 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX 或 Foci 未来面临被踢出局的风险最大，很可能被台积电光学部门采钰（Visera 6789）这类巨头垂直整合。不过未来两三年，借助 CPO 相关 FAU 和无源器件，它们眼前依然有巨大赚钱机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇
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Sivers通过Aeva成为Boston Dynamics的激光供应商，CPO技术是物理AI开发核心
有趣的事实：同一家公司经常出现在不同的供应链中。一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为上游激光供应商，通过以下路径供应给 Boston Dynamics：Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW（CW DFB 激光器）-> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics。我个人最初其实是因为4D AI而看好Aeva的。偶然发现Sivers是他们4D FMCW激光雷达的高置信度激光供应商。所以你实际上可以在光子学领域获得机器人曝光，而用于超大规模数据中心AI的同款CW激光器也在使用。虽然近期收入增长可能是$SIVE通过Aeva为$NVDA自动驾驶汽车相关架构供应激光器批量增长。人形机器人可能要到2028年？你总能得到更多间接曝光，比如MU的内存或$INTC的边缘CPU，但当然也有更直接的曝光方式。我觉得之前已经覆盖过很多名字了，比如$VPG或Harmonic Drive。但可笑的是，CPO玩家如$SIVE其实是前沿物理AI开发的核心部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.
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黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
原推 ↗英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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称不会卖SIVE，认为是代际级多头，受益于客户、TAM、Ayar护城河、CHIPS和指数流入。
我一股 $SIVE 都不会卖。 我个人认为这是代际级多头，因为它已经进入了这么多超大云厂商供应商体系。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔和 CPO 的极端 TAM 扩张预测。 如果你到现在还没读 $JBL 炉边谈话记录，它已经验证了需求和时间线；或者 Ayar 从网站上移除 Lumentum 和 Macom 作为激光供应商，验证了护城河；或者 CHIPS Act 资金验证了技术重要性；或者管理层在我看来字面上做对了所有事情，通过 NASDAQ 上市转向并购重点，验证前瞻增长愿景。 当前估值下，上行太有吸引力。 机构也几乎还没进入……而下个月我们将看到来自 Nasdaq、BlackRock、MSCI 指数的数千万美元长期被动新资金流入。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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估算SIVE下月约6450万美元机构纯买盘，若空头回补还会增加。
回复 @knedoycap：$SIVE 有约4700万美元来自 MSCI 指数，另有约1500-2000万美元来自新的 NASDAQ Stockholm 指数纳入。 所以下个月大约有6450万美元纯机构买入压力。考虑到约17%的自由流通股被做空，如果他们回补，也会增加买盘压力。
原推 ↗英文原文
@knedoycap There's around ~$47M from MSCI index for $SIVE. And ~$15-20M from the new NASDAQ Stockholm index inclusion. So ~$64.5M of pure institutional buying pressure next month. Given ~17% of FF is shorted too, add that to buying pressure if they cover.
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NASDAQ将SIVE纳入Stockholm指数，预计带来1500-2000万美元被动流入。
哇，NASDAQ 刚把 $SIVE 加入其 Stockholm 指数。 预计这会带来约1500-2000万美元被动流入，严格 ETF-only 大约50万美元。 我们能够看到大量机构资金流入 Sivers，因为这还叠加在月底 MSCI 指数纳入之上。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index. This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M. We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM. https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja
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认为SIVE员工少但博士比例高，能构建极有价值IP。
瑞典人总是说： “$SIVE 员工这么少，怎么能做到所有这些？”相较于 $LITE？ 结果是……如果你整个员工队伍约四分之一都是博士，你就能构建世界上最有价值的 IP。
原推 ↗英文原文
People in Sweden always like: “How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE? Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ
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硅谷逻辑重视融资后能否变成千亿美元公司，SIVE有完美设置。
欢迎来到硅谷，瑞典。 重点更多是你能用资金做什么，以及能否把市场投资转化为1000亿美元以上公司。 不是你2024年拉进来多少收入。 $SIVE 现在具备完美设置，我认为它们很可能完成正确收购，快速扩张收入。
原推 ↗英文原文
Welcome to Silicon Valley, Sweden. It's moreso what you can do with the funding and if you can turn that market investment into $100B+. Not about what revenue you pulled in from 2024. $SIVE has the perfect setup right now, and I think it's likely they can pull off the right acquisitions to speedrun revenue expansion.
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比较AAOI与SIVE：前者制造规模，后者独特IP和CPO供应商渗透。
$AAOI 更偏纯制造规模，我极度看多它们。 所以在我看来，它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此对收入爬坡极其看多。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要 CPO 超大云供应商似乎都使用它们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。 甚至 $JBL 也用 Sivers 做出突破性的 1.6T LRO 护城河。 Sivers 的上限很高，未来也总能像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样用资本开支做垂直整合。 但它们当前主要重点应该是创造尽可能大的 IP 护城河，并把制造外包以保持轻资本。 以后也总能垂直整合组装和激光晶圆厂。 我喜欢它们两个，但原因不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.
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美国CHIPS Act资金显示美国政府强力支持SIVE，涉及Golden Dome和RTX防务供应链。
市场有点意识到美国政府正在大力支持 $SIVE，正如直接美国 CHIPS Act 资金所显示。 因为你能在 $YSS Golden Dome 供应链（来自 allspace）和 $RTX 防务供应链（CHIPS Act）中看到 Sivers。 不过是的，Ericsson 和 Sivers 可能是从美瑞技术 MOU 中受益更明显的两个。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are kinda realizing US Gov is heavily backing $SIVE as you can see with direct US CHIPS Act funding. Since you see Sivers in $YSS Golden Dome supply chains (from allspace), and $RTX defense supply chains (chips act). But yeah Ericsson and SIvers are probably the two more noticable ones benefiting from US x Sweden tech MOU.
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高信念SIVE：伯克利+LITE团队、22%博士、CHIPS和潜在客户验证IP护城河。
我之前说过，我对 $SIVE 有高信念。 我相信它们来自 UC Berkeley + $LITE 的高管团队知道该收购什么 IP。因为它们从一开始就与 Ayar 等公司合作。 另外，公司22%的员工是博士也有帮助，整个团队都很强。 CHIPS Act，以及从 $NOK 到 $AAPL 的这些潜在合作，也给它们建立的 IP 护城河带来大量可信度。 它们之前只是缺资金，直到最近市场开始关注 Sivers。但我非常想看看它们从这里能做什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE. I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start. Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked. CHIPS ACT, all these likely partnerships from $NOK to $AAPL also gives a ton of credibility to the IP moat they've built. They just lacked the funding before the recent market interest in Sivers. But I'm very interested to see what they can do from here.
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阐述SIVE如何成为下一个800亿美元LITE：CPO/1.6T激光kingmaker并通过并购扩展TAM。
为了让 $SIVE 成为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE： Sivers 是当前 CPO 和 1.6T 光学转型中的激光 kingmaker。 它们基本上向 CPO 领域的领先玩家供应激光。 从可能的 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他 CPO 玩家开始，在这些公司变大之前就合作。 现在又有 $JBL 这样的1.6T LRO 大玩家，以及更多可插拔产品测试/认证正在进行。 它们终于解决了 Catch-22 问题，并获得市场关注，可以在 NASDAQ 上市后（或现在通过股权）完成基础性 CPO 相关 IP 的下游收购。 并尽可能从激光源向以下方向扩展收入： -> 光引擎/ELS 价值。 -> 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 用2年从20亿美元到800亿美元估值一样。 但不同的是，Sivers 正在 CPO 超级周期中做这件事，这是光子学史上最快的 TAM 扩张。 我关注的是它们能否完成这种大卫对歌利亚式的转变，追赶 $LITE。 这比当前发生的小市值百分比回报更让我在意。
原推 ↗英文原文
For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.
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复盘AXTI从5亿美元市值到92亿美元，认为SIVE多头正体验类似早期AXTI。
5个月前，我给 $AXTI 的目标价是150美元。 相当于从5亿美元市值的当前水平上涨超过10倍。 它现在是92亿美元市值，股价140美元，只差10美元。 新的 $SIVE 多头开始意识到，待在 AXT 这样的名字里是什么感觉。 也说明我相当擅长猜测公司的内在估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
5 months ago. I gave a PT of $150 with $AXTI. Over 10x that current values from a $500M MC. It’s now a $9.2B MC and $140. $10 away. New $SIVE longs are starting to realize what’s it’s like to be in AXT. And that I’m pretty good at guessing intrinsic valuations of companies. https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV
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解释SIVE融资是美国上市流动性需求，资金用于光子学TAM/收入扩张并购。
等你意识到这实际上是美国上市/流通盘所需的 NASDAQ 流动性。 而所得资金预计会用于 $SIVE 并购（他们聘请了2名并购相关董事）。 用于光子学 TAM/收入扩张。 不仅如此，它们过去合作过的小公司，从 Celestial 到 Lightmatter，要么被 Marvell 吞并，要么成为独立的数十亿美元公司。 所以 Sivers 最知道在最早期该收购什么。 这就是为什么我称 $SIVE 为 CPO 的 Kingmaker。 这事实上对 Sivers 极度看多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wait until you realize that this is actually NASDAQ liquidity required for the US listing/float. And proceeds are expected go to $SIVE M&A (they hired 2 acquisition related board members). For photonics TAM/Revenue expansion. Not only that, all the small companies they worked with from Celestial to Lightmatter ended up being swallowed up by Marvell or became independent billion dollar companies. So Sivers is by far the most knowledgable in what to acquire at the very start. Which is why I call $SIVE the Kingmaker for CPO. This is in fact extremely bullish for Sivers.
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称SIVE是CPO kingmaker，围绕Lightmatter/Celestial/Ayar/O-Net/Jabil等供应激光。
$SIVE 字面上是 CPO 的 kingmaker： 从早期的 Lightmatter、Celestial、Ayar、Lightelligence，到现在这些估值50-100亿美元以上的领导者。 再到 Marvell、Alchip、GUC 这样的 ASIC 生态。 O-Net 与 Sivers 为 CPO 量产 ELS。 Jabil 与 Sivers 为可插拔光收发器量产可插拔产品。 所有这些很可能都围绕 Sivers 激光，并以它为设计核心。 市场才刚刚开始看到这家激光公司有多重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is literally the kingmaker for CPO: From ~ Lightmatter, Celestial, Ayar, Lightelligence early on. Now the leaders with massive $5-10B+ valuations. To the ASIC ecosystems like Marvell, Alchip, GUC. With O-Net mass producing ELS with Sivers for CPO. And Jabil mass producing pluggables with Sivers for pluggable optical transceivers. All likely surround and are designed around Sivers lasers. Markets are only starting to see the precipice of how important this laser company is.
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称收到管理资金请求，但只想帮助普通散户靠想法成功。
我有那么受欢迎吗？ 我最近确实收到了很多 DM，请求我管理他们的资本。 但我在这里只是为了帮助普通散户投资者，通过 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这样的想法自己取得成功。 我觉得其他任何事情都会有点分散注意力。
原推 ↗英文原文
Am I that popular? I did get a lot of dm requests to manage their capital recently. But only here to help out regular retail investors succeed on their own with ideas like $SIVE or $SOI. I feel like anything else would be a bit of a distraction.
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讽刺瑞典本地人忽视SIVE前瞻增长、做空并最终把控制权交给美国。
Serenity 教你如何成为真正的瑞典本地人： 1. 看到 $SIVE 这家皇冠明珠光子学公司？ 2. 因2024年收入数字生气，忽视前瞻增长。 3. 在 CPO 超级周期之前，在底部鼓励所有人把控制权转给美国。 4. 因股价继续上涨而生气。 5. 让本地对冲基金在上涨途中做空17%以上自由流通股。 6. 它们基金亏损20%以上，并面临无限损失。 7. 突然意识到美国现在通过 MSCI 纳入/NASDAQ 上市即将主导所有权。 8. 但看到 Jabil 将在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 为超大云厂商量产1.6T LRO 的新消息？ 9. 不改变想法：继续关注2024年收入数字和本地会计办公室，而高管在美国。 10. 成为 X 上的梗。
原推 ↗英文原文
A guide by Serenity on becoming a true Swedish local: 1. See crown jewel photonics company in $SIVE? 2. Get angry about 2024 revenue numbers, ignoring forward growth. 3. Encourage everyone to transfer control to America at the bottom, before the CPO supercycle 4. Be angry that the stock keeps rising 5. Have local hedge funds short 17%+ of free float on way up 6. Their funds loses 20%+ of value, and faces infinite losses 7. Face sudden realization America now dominates ownership with MSCI inclusion / NASDAQ listing coming up. 8. But see new news Jabil mass producing 1.6T LRO for hyperscalers with $SIVE H1 2027? 9. Don’t change your mind: keep focusing on 2024 revenue numbers and local accounting offices while executives are in America. 10. Become a meme on X.
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列出SIVE近期催化：MSCI流入、CHIPS资金、Jabil放量、Apple线索、M&A董事、NASDAQ上市。
瑞典，你听了吗？ > $SIVE MSCI 纳入 + 结构性流入 > 660万美元 CHIPS Act 资金 > Jabil 1.6T 极端需求、放量爬坡 > Apple 下一代 Watch 更新可能使用 Sivers > 2名与并购相关的新董事 > Nasdaq 上市将至 故事变得越来越好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen Sweden? > $SIVE MSCI Listing + structural inflow > $6.6M CHIPS act funding > Jabil 1.6T extreme demand, volume ramp > Apple next-gen Watch refresh likely using Sivers > 2 new board members related to M&A > Nasdaq listing inc The story keeps getting better. https://t.co/mlKM9WcIOf
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解释为何关注SIVE并购：早期客户后来成长为数十亿美元公司，Sivers懂得收购光学IP。
如果人们还没意识到为什么我如此关注 $SIVE 的并购。 Sivers 的潜在客户曾经是： Lightmatter 很小时 -> 成为40亿美元以上公司。 Lightelligence 很小时 -> 成为100亿美元以上公司。 Ayar 很小时 -> 现在由 $NVDA、$AMD 等资助。 Celestial 很小时 -> 被 $MRVL 收购并成为其增长向量。独立估值可能会超过100亿美元。 我极其确定 Sivers 知道该收购什么光学 IP。 它们只是卡在 Catch-22 中，原本缺少资金，尽管拥有最有价值的激光瓶颈之一。 未来 NASDAQ 上市和近期增长，现在解锁了下游 IP 收购潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.
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SIVE若上NASDAQ将打开美国资本流入，历史上美国机构常积累50-70%持股。
大多数美国资本以及美国投资者目前无法接触 $SIVE。 所以如果它在 NASDAQ 上市，就会有巨大的新资本流入。尤其是如果机构想买入流通盘。 历史上看，$HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS 等案例中，美国机构会试图积累50-70%。Nebius 在美国上市时机构持股低于38%。 所以很难看出这不是净正面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Majority of US capital as well as US investors can't access $SIVE right now. So if they get listed on NASDAQ, it's just a massive new inflow of capital. Especially if institutions want to buy the float. Historically with $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS and others, US institutions try and accumulate 50-70%. (Nebius started <38% on US listing) So hard to see it not being net-positive.
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希望SIVE成为下一个LITE，而不是被MRVL/JBL收购。
回复 @osilayer8：不是，我是在为 $SIVE 成为下一个 $LITE 加油。 我建仓不是为了让 Sivers 被 $MRVL 或 $JBL 收购。 考虑到光子学需求，我也真的不认为 NASDAQ 上市后的融资会成为问题。 只是等待游戏。
原推 ↗英文原文
@osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE. I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL. I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand. Just a waiting game.
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SIVE空头面临MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、财报、新客户、JBL需求和M&A多重不确定性。
这可能是因为空头面临极端不确定风险。 > MSCI 纳入将在一两周内为 $SIVE 触发数千万美元新流入。 > NASDAQ 上市可能随时发生。 > 财报催化，带来新的可插拔合作伙伴。 > 今天关于 $JBL 使用 $SIVE 的 1.6T LRO 极端需求新闻。 > 现在还有更多并购相关事项，可能突然增加收入数字。 借券费率飙升对长期持有人更好，因为它让持有空头仓位更痛苦，尤其是在空头占17%以上流通盘时。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's probably due to extreme uncertainty risk for short sellers. > Since MSCI listing triggers tens of millions of new inflow for $SIVE in a week or two. > NASDAQ listing could be anytime > Earnings catalysts, with new pluggable partners > News about $JBL extreme demand for 1.6T LRO using $SIVE today > and now more M&A related stuff that can suddenly increase revenue numbers Spiking short rates is better for long term holders, since it makes it more painful to have short positions, especially when it's 17%+ of the float.
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新M&A董事可推动Sivers收购光学IP并提升收入。
回复 @jaddaplayer： > 新并购董事 > Sivers 买入更多光学 IP > 收入 go brr
原推 ↗英文原文
@jaddaplayer > New M&A board members > Sivers buys more optical IP > Revenue goes brr
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Sivers提名并购背景董事，战略意图明确指向CPO超级周期下的快速扩张路径。
$SIVE今天提名了两位新的董事会成员。这非常具有深意，因为这两位新成员都有并购背景，分别来自： -> 爱立信并购负责人 / Verdane顾问，专注于并购 / 德意志银行 -> HMS首席财务官 / Axholmen和Celerant Consulting，涉及并购/战略 $SIVE的看涨逻辑是从激光源开始： 然后通过IP收购快速扩展TAM至可插拔器件/共封装光学(CPO)产品线，并利用$FN等合作方进行最终组装以保持轻资本支出。 如果他们想在CPO/光子学超级周期中获取更多整体收入，可以参考$LITE的玩法。 因此，提名两位专注并购的人是一个健康指标，说明他们正走在正确的轨道上。 唯一需要考虑的是，在NASDAQ上市后通过私募或可转债向美国机构进行融资。 因为瑞典市场流动性仍然非常薄弱，Sivers可以通过更好的条款进行更大的收购... 在美国新流动性重新定价市值/股价之后。（Sivers目前有那笔过桥融资） 一旦Sivers满足一些美国机构的上市要求，更大的美国机构可能也有兴趣建立新的重大$SIVE仓位。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is nominating two new board members today. It's very highly telling since the newcomers have acquisition backgrounds from: -> Head of M&A at Ericsson / Advisor at Verdane, focusing on M&A / Deutsche Bank. -> CFO from HMS / Axholmen and Celerant Consulting around M&A/strategy. The bull case with $SIVE was to start from the laser source: Then speedrun TAM expansion down the pluggable/CPO stack through IP acquisitions, and use $FN + others for final assembly to keep things capex light. If they want to capture more overall revenue during the CPO/Photonics supercycle, following the $LITE playbook. So, it's a healthy indicator they're heading down the right track nominating two M&A focused people. Only idea to float out is to capital raise with private placement or convertibles with US institutions after NASDAQ listing. Since Swedish markets are still very thin and Sivers can get better terms for larger acquisitions... after new US liquidity reprices of MC/shares on listing. (Sivers has that recent bridge round in the meantime) Larger US institutions are likely interested in entering new very material $SIVE positions as well once Sivers passes some US institutions listing mandates.
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欧洲光子学SIVE/IQE/SOI均双位数反弹。
欧洲光子学的普通一天？ $SIVE、$IQE、$SOI 全部出现双位数反弹。 这些都是未来核心玩家，在这些水平上很难看到任何下跌不被买走。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just your average day in European photonics? With $SIVE, $IQE, and $SOI all hitting double digit recoveries. These are all core players going forward, hard to see any dip not being bought out at these levels. https://t.co/fYaYAov3Vn
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认为SIVE可能是JBL特定1.6T LRO唯一供应商，因架构独特。
回复 @ShakespeareDad：鉴于架构独特性，$SIVE 很可能是 $JBL 这款特定 1.6T LRO 的唯一来源。 它不是标准 CW 激光器。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ShakespeareDad $SIVE is likely sole source for this specific 1.6T LRO from $JBL given the architectural uniqueness. It’s not a standard cw laser.
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JPM炉边会显示JBL 1.6T LRO量产早于预期，SIVE激光架构形成护城河且需求近乎无上限。
$SIVE 与 $JBL 的 1.6T 光收发器量产： 根据 JPMorgan 炉边谈话，现在比预期更早。 他们宣布的内容： > $SIVE 激光架构暗示“相当显著的护城河”。 > 其 1.6T 存在极端需求，此前市场并不知道具体量级。 > 时间线快于预期，将收入实现窗口提前。 声明内容： 1. Jabil 的 1.6T LRO “将在未来1到4个月进入不同认证”。 “认证可能需要2到6个月。” 考虑到现在是2026年上半年5月，量产和收入实现可能在3到10个月内开始。 以6.5个月中点看，就是2026年底。 很多此前估计是2027年下半年。 3. 架构上，它“比当前1.6T 功耗曲线低约11千瓦”。 超大云厂商会喜欢听到这个，而这就是通过 $SIVE 作为关键光子学 chokepoint 证明的竞争差异化和相当显著护城河。 4. “在这一点上，不是份额问题。真正的问题是跟上整个市场的自然增长。” 这再次显示巨大需求已经超过供应。 含义是，关键变成 Sivers + Jabil 能一起生产多少，因为它们生产的任何东西都会被买走。 这种表述对 Sivers 相对于当前市值的收入极其重要。 市场此前不确定 Sivers x Jabil 的确切需求量和商业时间线。 Jabil 刚刚公开确认，使用 $SIVE 激光的 1.6T LRO 需求本质上没有上限。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE mass production for 1.6T optical transceivers with $JBL: Is now earlier than expected per JP Morgan Fireside chat. Here's what they announced: > "Relatively dramatic moat" implied with $SIVE laser architectures > Extreme demand for their 1.6T, which was previously unknown in terms of volume. > Faster than expected timelines, pulling revenue realization window forward. The statement: 1. Jabil’s 1.6T LRO: "Goes into different qualifications across the next 1 to 4 months" “The quals can take anywhere between 2 to 6 months" Given its May H1 2026, mass production and revenue realization could begin in anywhere between 3 months to 10 months. So late 2026 with 6.5 month midpoint. Lot of former estimates were H2 2027. 3. Architecturally it's "which is about 11 kilowatts dramatically lower than current 1.6T power profiles" Hyperscalers would like to hear this, and this is the competitive differentiation + relatively dramatic moat proven with $SIVE as the critical photonics chokepoint. 4. "At this point, it's not about share. It's really about keeping up with the organic growth of the entire market." Again this shows that the enormous demand has outstripped supply. The implications are that it’s more of a matter of how much Sivers + Jabil can build together, as anything they make would be bought. This type of statement is just incredibly material for Sivers revenue relative to their current marketcap. The market was previously uncertain about the exact volume demand and commercial timeline from Sivers X Jabil. Jabil just publicly confirmed that the demand for their 1.6T LRO with $SIVE lasers is essentially uncapped.
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Apple Watch 2026下半年健康监测升级或用TASC光电二极管，后续无创血糖监测可能关联SIVE激光。
这只是对时间线的确认： 2026年下半年是高端 Apple Watch 的“重大重新设计”，用于血压相关功能，使用 TASC 光电二极管（2340）。 下一部分可能是 $SIVE 与 $AAPL 的项目： “此后，Apple 的下一项健康监测能力预计将聚焦无创血糖监测。” 所以……下一轮更新很可能是 Sivers 的高度定制激光，也许在2027年下半年或2028年。 仍然有点早，但如果时间线/含义保持完整，市场可能会重视 Apple 带来的多年收入可见度。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is just confirmation on timelines: H2 2026 is the "major redesign of high end Apple Watches" for blood pressure related stuff using TASC photodiodes(2340). This next part is $SIVE likely project with $AAPL: "After this, Apple's next health monitoring capabilities are expected to focus on noninvasive blood-glucose monitoring." So.. the next cyle refresh is likely Sivers for hyper-customized lasers. Maybe H2 2027 or 2028. Still a bit early, but if timeline/implications are in tact, markets might appreciate multi-year revenue visibility with Apple.
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瑞典本地基金做空SIVE亏损严重。
回复 @KeriaFX：是的，它们因为做空 $SIVE 损失了基金价值的很大一部分。 我不认为这对瑞典本地公司会有好结果？它们本可以旁观，却在做空自己的前沿公司，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KeriaFX Yeah they lost a large part of their fund value shorting $SIVE. I don't think it's going to end well for local Swedish firms? Like they can just stay on the sideline but they're shorting their own frontier firms lol. https://t.co/1iHsgunsp1
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SIVE空头比例或超17%，将面对MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、CHIPS支持和多客户收入驱动。
先放在这里： $SIVE 空头权益现在可能高于17%+。 因为很多瑞典本地对冲基金做空 Sivers 已经深度亏损。 它们即将通过以下方式遇到美国机构： > 2周内 MSCI 资金流入。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 美国 CHIPS Act 托底。 同时还有来自光学超级周期的核心收入驱动：未来一两年可能来自 $AAPL、$JBL、$POET、Ayar、Onet/Enablence、Lightium、$AEVA、$MRVL、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 和 $AMD。 我个人不认为在这么早期做空的瑞典本地人（以及一些随机算法）会有好结果。 流行说法是，每一股空头最终都会变成长多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.
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预计SIVE 2027年成百亿美元公司，若按LITE路径未来几年甚至有60倍可能。
我个人认为 $SIVE 到2027年会成为100亿美元以上公司，也就是8-10倍。 $LITE 确实在2年内从28亿美元涨到800亿美元，所以如果天时地利，未来几年60倍也并非不可能。 它们正在走正确道路。 > $LITE / UC Berkeley 高管运营公司。 > 可能有更多美国光子学相关高管进入董事会。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 可能通过美国机构私募融资。 > 用这些资金做下游 IP 收购。 > 销售完整可插拔收发器/ELS 来扩展 TAM。 > 每个超大云厂商现在似乎都能映射到 Sivers，只是 CPO 还没放量。 它们会像 $LITE 当年从激光源开始那样，在过程中捕获更多收入扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
I personally think $SIVE ends up a $10B+ company in 2027, so 8-10x. $LITE did go from $2.8B to $80B in 2 years, so not really impossible do a 60x in the next few years if the stars align. They're going down the right path. > $LITE / UC Berkeley executives running company. > Likely more US executive photonics related board members. > NASDAQ listing > Likely US institution private placement for funding > use that for downstream IP acquisition. > sell full pluggable transceiver/ELS for TAM expansion > every hyperscaler kinda maps to Sivers right now, just no scale yet since CPO hasnt ramped up. They just capture more revenue expansion along the way like $LITE did starting from the laser source.
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SIVE自由流通股空头约17%，叠加MSCI、CHIPS、NASDAQ催化使空头风险高。
$SIVE 空头权益根据一些第三方数据约占自由流通股17%，这非常大（昨天之后可能更高）。 在我看来，它们这么早做空大概完了。 现在有 MSCI + CHIPS Act + NASDAQ 上市催化。 还有一家瑞典本地对冲基金上个月因空头亏损20%，如果事情继续这样发展，它可能会出问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE short interest is around ~17% of free float apparently from some third party data, which is enormous (probably higher after yesterday). IMO they're prob fked doing it so early on. Now with MSCI + CHIPS ACT + NASDAQ Listing cataylsts. There was another local Swedish hedge fund that was down -20% off their shorts last month, so it might go under if things continue as is.
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SIVE纳入MSCI并获得660万美元CHIPS资金，政府托底关键瓶颈。
$SIVE 刚被纳入 MSCI，这意味着两周内可能又有数千万美元买盘压力。 此外还有新的660万美元 CHIPS Act 资金进入，这是很棒的资本注入。 最大的是这项 CHIPS Act 进展带来的收入含义，无论它们正在做什么黑魔法。政府把 Sivers 作为关键 chokepoint 托底，是锦上添花。 我个人认为它还会涨很多。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE just got MSCI inclusion and that's another likely tens of millions buying pressure in 2 weeks. Then there's new $6.6M CHIPS ACT funding coming in, which is an amazing capital injection. The largest thing is revenue implications from this CHIPS ACT development, whatever black magic they're working on. Gov backstopping Sivers as a critical chokepoint is a cherry on top. I personally think it's going much higher.
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调侃瑞典刚说Sivers完了，美国政府就给SIVE CHIPS奖励。
回复 @MindQuest42：瑞典字面上像是在说：“Sivers 完了。” 第二天：美国政府给 $SIVE 660万美元 CHIPS Act 奖励，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MindQuest42 Sweden is literally like: "it's all over for Sivers" Next day: US government gives $SIVE 6.6M CHIPS ACT award lol.
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SIVE获得美国CHIPS Act 660万美元，与BAE合作用于美国防务基础设施现代化。
最新：$SIVE 获得美国 CHIPS Act 660万美元。 这是第二年项目的660万美元。 与 BAE Systems 合作：“使用 Sivers 技术现代化美国防务基础设施”。 像 $SIVE 这样小的公司获得 CHIPS Act 资金，极其看多。 因为它把 Sivers 定位为一个关键、由美国政府托底的国家安全 chokepoint。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: $SIVE gets $6.6M from the US CHIPS ACT. This is a $6.6M Year 2 Program. In collaboration with BAE Systems: "Modernizing U.S. Defense Infrastructure Using Sivers Technology" This is incredibly bullish to have such a small company in $SIVE to get CHIPS ACT funding. As it positions Sivers as a critical, US-government backstopped chokepoint for national security.
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SIVE/RPI模式类似：信息综合上涨后机构负面报道、散户卖出、机构买入流通盘、股价新高。
回复 @dubidubabap：我看到 $SIVE、$RPI 以及基本所有事情都有很强的相似性。 它诡异地类似于：信息综合推动价格上涨 -> 机构发布负面新闻/媒体周期 -> 散户卖出 -> 结果机构在买入流通盘 -> 股票创历史新高。
原推 ↗英文原文
@dubidubabap I see pretty strong parallels with $SIVE, $RPI, and basically everything. It’s eerily similar to price rises on info synthesis -> institutions publish negative news/media cycles -> retail sells -> turns out institutions were buying the float -> stock hits ATHs.
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从LITE/COHR部分轮动到SIVE/Foci，认为CPO是光子学超级周期中最有吸引力主题。
一个帅哥就算和 Clavicular 并排也更抢眼，但这不会影响任何基本面。 我上个月也像 Leopold 一样，削减了一些 $LITE、$COHR 敞口。 但我把它轮动到一个具体光学主题：$SIVE / Foci 这样的 CPO 名字。 整个光子学供应链正处于巨大超级周期的起点，而做多 CPO 作为架构范式转变，没有什么比这更有吸引力。 市场把两家公司等同于整个主题，然后一起卖掉所有相关东西。 不过对理解细节的人来说，这是很好的买入机会。 我仍认为 Lumentum 和 $COHR 有上行，只是如果只买股票，在当前价格下不太可能像其他名字那样快速翻倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
A good looking guy that would mog Clavicular side by side has no impact to any fundamentals. I cut some exposure too in $LITE $COHR like Leopold, last month. But rotated it to a specific optical theme with CPO names like $SIVE / Foci. The entire photonics supply chain is in the start of a massive supercycle and there’s nothing more compelling going long on CPO as an architectural paradigm shift. Markets conflate two companies as the entire theme and sell off anything with it. Great buying opportunity for people who understands the nuance though. I still think there’s upside for Lumentum and $COHR, just less likely to double at current prices as fast if you’re going shares only.
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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炫耀组合大部分未实现收益并继续复利
有个事实：我组合里 70% 以上还是未实现收益，很多仓位我一股都没卖。 如果像 $AXTI 这种涨了 1900%+，$SIVE 涨了 1000%+，更大的集中仓位也有 $SOI 这种 300%+ 的回报，当然会轻松很多。 但总的来说，除了更晚才建仓的 thesis 名字，比如已经接近 100% 的 $HPS.A，整个组合基本都在三位数收益。 连新仓 Shunsin 现在都大概涨了 35%+。 我现在大概是 1.3x 到 1.4x 杠杆，仓位 96% 左右都是股票。之前我就用已经上涨的仓位去加杠杆，继续复利到别的机会里。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact: over 70%+ of my portfolio is unrealized, I haven't sold a single share in many of these. It helps if things like $AXTI hit 1900%+ returns, $SIVE hit 1000%+ returns, and everything larger in concentration hit 300% like $SOI. But basically entire portfolio is up triple digits aside from newer thesis names I've entered like $HPS.A which is getting close to 100%. Even Shunsin, which is new up 35%+ now or something. I'm on 1.3x-1.4x leverage right now, 96% or so shares only. I've been using previous positions that appreciated to compound more with others using margin.
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把早期仓位切换到 CPO 名字里
@ajmotleyfool 没有，我把今年早些时候的一些持仓，最近都换进了像 Foci、Shunsin、$SIVE 这类 CPO 名字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ajmotleyfool Nope, I've pivoted a lot of the earlier players in the year into CPO names like Foci, Shunsin, $SIVE recently.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
原推 ↗英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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说 SIVE 正在变成下一家美国 photonics 龙头
$SIVE 现在正朝着下一个 $LITE、也就是美国 photonics 巨头的方向前进。 他们正在把董事会重新调整为以美国高管和美国 photonics 为中心。 所以现在核心董事会成员变成了：来自美国的 $GFS 高管和 $CITI 高管，再加上由 UC Berkeley 毕业生和 $LITE 前高管管理公司。 原来离开的 3 位成员来自瑞典 / 欧盟本地。 这只是战略从“发展本地瑞典半导体生态”转向“主导美国 / 全球 photonics 市场”。 我不是想贬低他们的履历。 只是按我的看法，如果目标是聚焦美国 / 全球 photonics 市场，更多美国高管会更优。 但无论如何，他们都值得为把 $SIVE 带到今天的样子而自豪。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is now aiming to become the next $LITE, a US photonics giant. They're re-centering their board around US executives + US photonics. So the core board are now: US $GFS Executives and $CITI Executives, with the company run by UC Berkeley grads and $LITE executives. The 3 members leaving were local Swedish/EU. This is just a shift in strategy from focusing on developing local Swedish Semi environments: To dominating the US/global photonics market. I'm not trying to discredit their service/background. But in my view to focus around US/global photonics markets, it's likely optimal to have more US executives. But they should all be proud for helping make $SIVE what it is today.
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把 SIVE 和 Ayar / AlChip / Amazon Trainium 链条连起来
@DanilSer33 新的 $SIVE / Ayar / AlChip / $AMZN Trainium 供应链，比最近那个 $POET 5000 万到 5 亿美元采购订单更值得看多。 市场大概率不会立刻看出 Ayar、AlChip 和 $SIVE 之间的联系，除非有人把它点出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DanilSer33 The new $SIVE / Ayar / AlChip / $AMZN trainium supply chain is more bullish than the recent $POET $50m -> $500m purchase order. Markets probably won’t see the connection between Ayar AlChip and $SIVE unless someone points it out though.
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补充 Amazon / AlChip / Ayar 对 SIVE 的利好链条
再补一句关于很正面的 $SIVE 消息，以及 MSCI 未来两周可能带来数千万资金流入： $AMZN 刚和 AlChip 做了新的私募配售。 这大概率意味着未来 Trainium 还有设计赢单。 如果你还记得的话……AlChip 是 Ayar 的主客户。而 $SIVE 是 Ayar 的主要激光供应商。 所以对 $SIVE 的含义会非常大，它是在搭 Amazon 生态增长的顺风车。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just to add to the very positive $SIVE news amid MSCI likely tens of millions of inflow in 2 weeks: $AMZN has a new private placement with AlChip. Probably implying design wins with future Trainium. If you don’t remember… AlChip was Ayar’s lead customer. And $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. So implications for $SIVE, is enormous piggybacking off of Amazon’s ecosystem growth.
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解释 POET 订单激励其实也利好 SIVE
这些 warrants 确实有助于激励 $POET 再增加 5 亿美元的采购订单。 不过我不在意，实际上它对 $SIVE 更有利，而不是对 Poet 更有利，因为 Sivers 会拿到那 5 亿美元 $POET BOM 激光订单里很大一部分，而且不需要承担同样的激励抵押。 只是市场现在还没看懂这个细节。
原推 ↗英文原文
The warrants do help incentivize the $500m in extra purchase orders for $POET though. But I'm not complaining, it's actually more beneficial to $SIVE than it is to Poet, since Sivers gets all the large percent of that $500M $POET BOM of laser orders without that incentive as collateral. Just don't think markets know that nuance yet.
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评论CPO供应链分析文章，指出Sivers与多家光互联芯片公司存在映射关系。
很有意思的阅读！觉得你覆盖了关于整体CPO增长曲线的大部分重要观点，写了一个很好的牛市案例。 特别是关于$SIVE如何服务于Ayar、$JBL和$POET，并通过与Win合作采用资本支出轻量的晶圆厂轻资产模式实现规模化。 实际上还有大量与$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、Lightmatter以及其他参与者的供应链映射关系，以及$AAPL等用于相邻SiPH垂直领域的玩家。 但不包括更多尚未100%确认的参与者是合理的。不过O-Net/enablence ELS面向亚洲超大规模业者这一点已得到确认（文章中没有看到这一点）。 但这也说明了Sivers映射到的玩家数量众多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun read! Think you covered majority of the important points regarding the overall CPO growth curve and wrote a great bull case. Especially how $SIVE feeds into Ayar, $JBL, and $POET + scales using capex light fab-lite model with Win. There's actually a ton of supply chain mapping with $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, Lightmatter, and others of players like $AAPL for adjacent SiPH verticals. But makes sense not to include more not 100% confirmed players. O-Net/enablence ELS for Asian hyperscalers was confirmed though (didnt see that there) But just goes to show many players Sivers maps to.
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把 POET 的大单和 SIVE 的激光瓶颈联系起来
如果你还不知道，$POET 因为 Lumilens 的一笔 5000 万美元采购，盘前涨了 22%。 后续还会按更长期框架扩到 5 亿美元。 正如 Sivers 2025 年报里提到的：$POET 会在 2026 年下半年和 $SIVE 一起放量。 这些中游玩家往上反向拉动 $SIVE 的需求，而激光就是一切的 chokepoint。 所以，是的，这对 Sivers 极度利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you didn't know $POET is up 22% premarket on a $50m purchase from Lumilens. Scaling to $500m with a longer term framework. As mentioned in Sivers 2025 annual report: $POET is ramping up H2 2026 with $SIVE. Any demand from these midstream players back to $SIVE as the laser chokepoint for everything. So yes, this is highly bullish for Sivers.
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认为 SIVE 的光学侧信息全都很牛
我的意思是，$SIVE 光学侧给出的信息几乎全是我想听到的？ -> H2 开始放量 -> TAM 扩展到 pluggable transceivers -> 除了 $JBL 之外，还有多家新的潜在 hyperscaler 供应商在测试/认证他们的激光器，用于 pluggable。 -> Win Semi 产能已经锁定。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean $SIVE delivered everything I wanted to hear on their optical side? -> Volume ramp starting H2 -> TAM expansion into pluggable transceivers -> Multiple new likely hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualifying their lasers for pluggable aside from $JBL. -> Win Semi capacity secured.
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$SIVE 年报显示 CPO 与 pluggable 双线扩张
$SIVE 2025 年报分析。 TLDR：非常看多。 Sivers 的主增长向量是 CPO，但他们已经把 TAM 扩展到 pluggable transceivers，以及多项新的 qualification / development。 1. “We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers” 从 pluggable 角度看，我们已经在 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 上看到类似情况，而年报暗示他们还在和更多 hyperscaler 供应商开发 / 认证。 “Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged” （TAM 扩张） 2. “Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years” $LITE 已经提示过 CW laser 的瓶颈，他们甚至不得不外购竞品。我们之前其实就猜到 CW laser 会是瓶颈。 而这次年报确认了这一点，所以我也在看 Win Semi。 “The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand” $SIVE 很可能已经通过 Win 锁定了产能，这正是我最想确认的。 这把 Sivers 放在了 CW laser 既是瓶颈又是 CPO 激光架构领导者的位置。 H2 量产信号（看多）： 3. “The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026” H1 更偏 preproduction，H2 才是量产启动，像 $POET 那样。 4. “We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026” $AEVA 在 2026 年 Q4 开始量产，对 $SIVE 也是利好。 LIDAR 提供了 revenue floor，而他们的 CPO 正在放量。 5. Sivers 还宣布和 LIGHTIUM AG 合作，把 CW laser 直接整合到 TFLN wafers 上。3.2T+ 周期，属于未来防守。 顺带说一下，去年 2025 的财报本身，除了瑞典本地媒体/散户外，真没几个像样的投资者会在意。 尤其当你看的是 2027-2028 的 CPO 超级周期时。 但从财报和地理布局里你能提取到的一个高置信客户信号是：$NOK 现在已经是 $SIVE 的高置信客户。 TLDR： -> Win Semi 暗示在 CW laser 瓶颈下锁定了产能 -> 新一批 hyperscaler 供应商在测试/认证 pluggable transceivers，TAM 巨大扩张 -> 新的 CW laser 客户 -> photonics 和 lidar 都在 H2 开始量产爬坡。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis. TLDR: Extremely Bullish. Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development. 1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers" For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers. "Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion) 2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years" $LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck. And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi. "The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand" $SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know. This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader. VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH): 3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026" H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET. 4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026" $AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both. Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales. 5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing) FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals. Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle. But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE. TLDR: -> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck -> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion. -> New customers for CW lasers -> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.
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总结 photonics 当天暴涨说明仍在早期
光子这一天也太疯狂了。 $SIVE 涨 31.3% $TSEM 涨 23.1% $AAOI 涨 20.01%。 这看起来很多……但这只说明你还站在下一轮超级周期的早期，而且后面还有很大空间。 X 上很多人会问：$SNDK 之后是什么？ 就是这些。 https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
原推 ↗英文原文
What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
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欢迎瑞典对冲基金面对全球机构资金流入
@JinYu762 瑞典本地对冲基金，准备好迎接全球金融机构对 $SIVE 的资金流入吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JinYu762 Local Swedish hedge funds, get ready to meet global financial institution inflow with $SIVE.
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计算 MSCI 被动资金流入对 SIVE 的拉动
@Platypus_55 我算了一下，大概会有 2500 万到 3200 万美元的新资金流入买盘压力？ 这对 $SIVE 来说是结构性的巨大顺风。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Platypus_55 I did some calculations and it might be around $25-$32m worth of new inflow buying pressure? Which is structurally a large tailwind for $SIVE.
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MSCI 小盘股纳入对 SIVE 是重大利好
哇，$SIVE 被纳入 MSCI Global Small Cap Index。 这极度利好，因为随着市值变大，会触发更多被动资金流入。 再平衡会在 5 月 29 日进行。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, $SIVE to be listed in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index. This is overwhelmly positively as it triggers more passive inflows as the MC grows. Rebalancing takes places May 29th.
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Sivers半导体因美国机构入主和$LITE系高管加持，NASDAQ上市有望加速。
为了让事情变得更加有趣。 $SIVE由UC Berkeley的CEO们和$LITE的前高管们运营。 而且股权结构表现在已被美国机构/投资者控制。 我预计NASDAQ上市进程会加速，因为美国机构非常青睐这样的高管团队+股权结构。 美国/硅谷现在正在快速推进一家瑞典名义的光子学公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
To make things even spicier. $SIVE is run by UC Berkeley CEOs and $LITE executives. And the ownership cab table is now controlled by American institutions/investors. I’d expect things to speed up on NASDAQ listing as American institutions are heavy fond of executive teams + cap tables like this. US/Silicon Valley is now speedrunning a Swedish in name photonics company.
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解释 SIVE 的 CW laser 为什么适配多家 hyperscaler 供应链
他们特别之处在于拥有非常先进、架构上独特的 CW lasers，所以能适配 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 以及 hyperscaler 供应链里的这些规格。 像 Furukawa、Sumitomo 这种公司，做的更多是大规模生产通用 / 标准化 CW lasers。 这也是为什么很多中游光学公司最后都会用 $SIVE 这样小但关键的 laser 公司，而随着它们一起成长，Sivers 也会跟着放大。
原推 ↗英文原文
What they do special is really advanced/architecturally unique CW lasers, so they fit Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and these types of specifications in hyperscaler supply chains. Companies like Furukawa, Sumitomo just mass produce generic/standardized CW lasers. That’s a reason why so many of these midstream optical companies ended up using such small laser company in $SIVE and as they all grow, Sivers scales with them.
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用历史市值路径说明 laser chokepoint 的威力
回答这个问题，我就拿一些 laser chokepoint 的历史数据出来： $LITE 从 30 亿 -> 150 亿 -> 800 亿美元，只用了从 2024 年开始的 2 年。 $AAOI 从 7.7 亿 -> 150 亿美元，只用了 2025 年开始的 1 年。 $SIVE 现在在 2026 年是 16 亿美元。 世界上这类公司没多少，而 laser 又是 photonics 的绝对中心。 每家公司都拥有一个特定的 chokepoint，对应一次光学架构的变化。 $LITE 对应 EML。 $AAOI 对应 cw 800g/1.6T pluggable。 而现在 $SIVE 对应 cw CPO。
原推 ↗英文原文
To answer that question. I’ll just float some historical data out there with laser chokepoints: $LITE went from $3B -> $15B -> $80B in 2 years from 2024. $AAOI went from $770M -> $15B in 1 year from 2025. $SIVE is $1.6B today in 2026. There’s not many in the world and lasers are the absolute center of photonics. Each owned a specific chokepoint from optical architectural shifts. $LITE for EML. $AAOI for cw 800g/1.6T pluggable and now $SIVE for cw CPO.
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说 SIVE 业绩的关键在量产和客户进展
$SIVE 的业绩结果其实不重要，我看不出财务上有什么风险，最多就是媒体平常爱制造恐慌。 像我以前对 $AAOI / $AEHR 一样，现在主要该看的指标是 2027 年以后的激光量产。 如果有 Win Semi 产能锁定，那就会很利好。 或者如果 Ayar、Jabil 和其他客户出现量产，那也是利好。 任何关于新增 hyperscaler 供应商的备注，都会是利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE earning results don't matter, I don't see risks in financials other than your usual media trying to cause panic. Main indicators to look at like I've done before with $AAOI / $AEHR. Are around laser volume production going forward in 2027. Maybe anything around Win Semi capacity lock would be bullish. Or Ayar, Jabil, and other customer volume production. Any added note around new hyperscaler suppliers would be bullish.
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CPO市场将从零增长至910亿美元，欧洲、台湾、日本新玩家将主导CPO供应链变革。
人们好奇我为什么最近在关注非美国市场。 为什么？因为共封装光学(CPO)是我排名第一的主题性看多方向。 市场尚未意识到，光子学领域正经历一场突如其来的范式转变... 2025年，我是少数几个提前预判当前超级周期的人之一，当时买入的$AAOI约在$30、$LITE约在$300多、$AXTI约在$13...这些都是基于真实的业绩验证和其他人无法展示的thesis。 CPO市场将从约0增长到910亿美元的TAM机会。 高盛研究预计在未来1.5年内实现。 与此同时，整体光学市场将达到1540亿美元。 许多之前对当前光子学周期几乎没有任何敞口的企业： -> 欧洲企业拥有高端激光设计，如$SIVE或$SOI涉及衬底 -> 台湾企业如Foci (3363)、Nextronics (8147)、Shunsin (6451)等提供光学元件和代工服务 -> 日本企业涉及激光量产、衬底和化学品 突然之间成为了CPO的新主导力量。 至于美国玩家，目前敞口不大。但现有企业如$LITE、$COHR仍能从CPO中获得上涨空间，因为这是它们新的增长向量。 我对现有玩家的逆向思考： 他们的大部分估值已经反映了巨大的传统可插拔光学收入，而这些收入将不可避免地随时间被 cannibalize（ cannibalization蚕食），因此除非有人能利用杠杆，否则重新估值的空间有限。 许多新的纯CPO概念股会在H2 2026开始量产时从0到100极速增长（作为收入桥梁），然后进入H2 2027的规模化增长阶段（成为大规模增长驱动力）。 市场通常会在事件发生前8-12个月定价... 尽管在此期间市场可能出现波动，但我对自己的供应链研究在主题性方向上有高度信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.
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强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
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用历史说明 SIVE 已站在新的 laser chokepoint 上
$LITE 用 2 年从 20 亿涨到 800 亿，因为它掌握了 EML 的 laser chokepoint。 $AAOI 用 1 年从 14 亿涨到 140 亿，因为它掌握了 800g / 1.6T transceivers 和组装的 laser chokepoint。 $SIVE 今天大概是 14 亿美元，在 CPO 之前就已经掌握了 CW laser chokepoint。 Sivers 是我最喜欢的一个。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE went from $2B to $80B in two years by owning the laser chokepoint for EML $AAOI went from $1.4B to $14B in one year by owning laser chokepoint for 800g/1.6T transceivers + assembly $SIVE is $1.4B today before CPO and owns the CW laser chokepoint. Sivers is my favorite out of everything.
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SIVE 还在欧洲交易，希望尽快美股化
@softmaxedx 对，像 $SIVE 这种名字现在还在欧洲交易，遗憾的是还受瑞典本地市场流动性影响。 希望它尽快变成美国公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@softmaxedx Yep names like $SIVE are still trading in Europe sadly and are affected by regional Swedish market liquidity. Hope it ends up an American company soon enough.
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为上纳斯达克而稀释一点点反而利好 SIVE
为了登陆 NASDAQ 稀释 2.5%，对 $SIVE 来说其实非常看多；我看到它在美国市场交易后会走向 30 亿美元以上市值。 我认为它现在价格被低估了，只是还被瑞典本地市场限制着。 我个人不太明白为什么 $LWLG 和 $POET 能值 23 亿到 26 亿美元，而 Sivers 只大约 15 亿美元，却在给大量 hyperscaler 供应商供货。
原推 ↗英文原文
The 2.5% dilution to get listed on NASDAQ is actually extremely bullish with $SIVE, and I see it heading to $3B+ once its trading on US markets. I think it's undervalued at current prices, but just limited by local Swedish markets right now. I'm personally not sure how $LWLG and $POET are worth $2.3B - $2.6B while Sivers is ~$1.5B supplying to a vast amount of hyperscaler suppliers.
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解释设计/IP 型公司人手少是正常的
好问题！$SIVE 这种做 IP / design 的公司，员工数量没那么重要。 很多媒体在和 $COHR 这种需要成千上万人做组装的公司对比时，忽略了其中的差异。 $SIVE 把设计交给 Win Semi / $GFS 去生产，这也是我更喜欢这种模式的原因之一，因为在它们真正形成可观收入、再去做纵向整合之前，这样能大幅降低 capex 和稀释风险。 从美国视角看，我个人把这看成优点：保持轻资产和可扩展性。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hey great question! So $SIVE headcount doesn't matter as much when you're doing IP/design. Lot of media misunderstand nuances, when they compare it with $COHR that have tens of thousands of people... which are required for assembly. $SIVE ships their designs off to Win Semi / $GFS which handles all the production. Which is why I liked this model a lot more since it reduces a lot of capex and dilution risk until they make material revenue to vertically integrate. I personally see it as a plus, keeping things lean and scalable from an American perspective.
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欧洲媒体看空的名字后来都在创新高
就在 3 个月前，欧洲媒体还把我的 $RPI thesis 叫成“meme stock”，说盈利不该被纳入决策。 2 个月前，$SOI 被说成“估值过高，thesis 没有新东西”。 这个月又轮到 $SIVE，被说成“没什么特别的，Sivers 或 CPO 早就存在很多年了”。 结果这三个现在年内都还在创新高，而且都是三位数回报。尤其是 Raspberry Pi，在把前瞻收入增长预期从约 15% 押到 52% 到 55% 后，表现非常夸张。 我也预计这三只（$RPI、$SIVE、$SOI）会继续在 AI、SiPH 和 CPO 的驱动下交出创纪录增长。 也许每次这些负面稿子出来之后，欧洲媒体都该照照镜子？ 真正盯基本面的那些人，反而成了他们嘲笑的对象。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis: "A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions. 2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis". This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around for years". Each are still hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns. Especially, Raspberry PI after it shattered projections by 52% to 55% fwd. rev growth from ~15% est. And I expect all 3 ($RPI, $SIVE, and $SOI) to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating. Maybe after each negative hit piece... it's time for European media to look in a mirror? The ones focusing on actual fundamentals are the ones they're mocking.
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Win 也是光学敞口里的关键瓶颈
@LIWEI_TWCapital 对，Win 也应该算上，我刚才忘了。 它在光学敞口里其实被严重低估了，而且我觉得它会成为明年的一个瓶颈，因为他们在帮 $SIVE 做激光量产爬坡。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LIWEI_TWCapital Yeah Win should be on there too forgot about it. It's really understated for optical exposure and I see it being one of the bottlenecks next year since they're helping $SIVE with laser volume ramp.
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列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
原推 ↗英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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LITE 被纳入指数后带动整个光学链条
@TomSzczypka $LITE 进了纳斯达克 100，资金流入会很多。 算法把 $SIVE、$AAOI、$AEHR 和其他名字都和 Lumentum 这个行业龙头关联起来了。 所以它们一起被带上去了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TomSzczypka $LITE nasdaq 100 lot of inflow. Algorithms tied $SIVE, $AAOI, $AEHR, and others to Lumentum now as the sector leader. So they all got brought up together.
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LITE 突破 1000 美元，自己方向判断没错
$LITE 现在已经超过 1000 美元了。你听了吗 anon？ 我方向上确实经常能把光学公司看对…… 所以我看到像 $AAOI 或 $SIVE 这些名字上的空头，真的会觉得很好笑。 https://t.co/agPpMQv8Xw
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE is now over $1000. Did you listen anon? I do tend to get optical players directionally right... So it's hilarious when I see short sellers on names like $AAOI or $SIVE. https://t.co/agPpMQv8Xw
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SIVE 被大量做空，反而可能让空头很难受
今天才知道 $SIVE 被做空得这么狠…… 难道价格意外上涨，真的会把对冲基金打趴下？ 一个叫 Colosseum 的对冲基金，上个月跌了 19.8%，很大程度上就是因为他们做空了 Sivers。 接下来两年 CPO 以抛物线方式爬坡，他们就要面对无限损失。 Sivers 从来不是一个纯短挤压题材，因为从基本面看，它本身就是最有吸引力的 CPO 多头之一。 但这个副作用还是挺有意思的，尤其是现在他们可能还得回补一部分流通股。
原推 ↗英文原文
Today I learned $SIVE was so actively shorted... That the price going up accidentally might take down hedge funds? A hedge fund Colosseum is down -19.8% last month largely due to their short position of Sivers. They now face infinite losses as CPO ramps up parabolically over the next two years. Sivers was never a short squeeze play since fundamentally, it's one of the most compelling CPO related longs. But it's an interesting effect as a byproduct, especially now that they might need to buy back % of the float.
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2.5% 稀释已解决，反而是重大利好
@DVoskens 今天 2.5% 的稀释已经解决了。这个事情之前就计划了很久。 人们 / 算法通常会对稀释反应负面，但在 $SIVE 这个例子里，其实极度正面。
原推 ↗英文原文
@DVoskens The 2.5% dilution was resolved today. It was planned for awhile. People/algos typically react negatively to dilution but in this case with $SIVE it’s incredibly positive
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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认为纳斯达克上市带来的稀释是正面的
跟很多人 / 算法想的不一样： 让 $SIVE 通过 2.5% 稀释，实际上在这个案例里是非常正面的。 因为这能让它尽快在美国纳斯达克上市。 我不确定是否存在什么股份发行套利在影响短期价格。 但获得美国机构资本、加快扩张、把公司从瑞典小市场里重新定价，才是首要任务。
原推 ↗英文原文
Contrary to what people/algos think: Getting 2.5% dilution passed with $SIVE is actually extremely positive in this case. Since that helps them get listed on US Nasdaq ASAP. Not sure if there’s any share issuance arbitrage at all impacting short term prices. But getting access to US institutional capital to accelerate expansion + repricing out of small Swedish markets is priority.
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没卖过 SIVE，依旧最看好激光公司
@Leon8995385220 我不控制 $SIVE 的盘中波动。 我一股都没卖过，因为它真的是我见过的、在 CPO 2027 放量背景下最有吸引力的激光公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Leon8995385220 I don’t control intraday volatility with $SIVE. Haven’t sold a single share since it’s genuinely the most compelling laser company I’ve seen as CPO scales up 2027.
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猜测 SIVE 未来可能变成美国光子公司
@MrPelican2025 我不会惊讶如果有一天 $SIVE 变成一家美国光子公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MrPelican2025 I would not be surprised if $SIVE became an American photonics company one day.
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给出 SIVE 未来市值路径与对标 LITE 的想法
我觉得 $SIVE 明年会到 100 亿美元以上，到了 2028 年如果管理层把牌打好，能扩到 400 亿美元以上。 这很大程度上取决于管理层是不是足够有野心，想不想成为下一个 $LITE。 但这正是 Lumentum 当年怎么做的：先拥有 laser chokepoint，再向下游买 IP，把更多 TAM 吃进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think $SIVE ends up $10B+ next year and can scale to $40B+ in 2028 if they play their cards right. Really depends on how ambitious management is if they want to become the next $LITE. But this is exactly how Lumentum started owning the laser chokepoint then IP acquisition downstream to capture more TAM.
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说瑞典媒体可能终于发现股权已转向美国机构
我在想，瑞典媒体是不是终于意识到他们都干了什么，于是停止发帖了？ $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 多头，尤其是在 laser chokepoint 这块。 https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
原推 ↗英文原文
I wonder if Swedish media realized what they’ve done transferring control over to American investors/institutions and stopped posting? $SIVE is the most compelling CPO long I’ve seen, especially for the laser chokepoint. https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
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投资过早易被套，应等技术量產前夕再入场
有前景...但说到实际盈利：玻璃/硅光子学是2026-2029年下半年的即期事件。东曹(Tosoh)提到的塑料光学器件和电缆，时间线看起来要到2029年以后才准确。最好是等到即将进入量產爬坡阶段再进场，就像$SIVE或$AEHR那样。感觉总体而言，过早做多量子点、microLED和塑料光学器件...下次回调时可能会停滞一年。关键在于你要找到时间表大幅提前的迹象（CPO就提前了），那才是alpha。但塑料光缆这事最好留到一年半以后，比如2028年上半年再说。
原推 ↗英文原文
Promising… but for actually making returns: Things like Glass/Silicon Photonics is an immediate H2 2026-2029 event. 2029+ timeline seems accurate for plastic optics and cables cited by Tosoh. Better to wait until it’s about to hit volume ramp as seen with $SIVE or $AEHR. Feel like in general, going long on quantum dot, microled, and plastic way too early on… might just end up stalling out for a year in the next correction? The nuance is you find any indicators timelines have been pushed up a lot (CPO got pushed up), then that’s alpha. But it’s something to save for a year and a half later like H1 2028 for plastic optical cables.
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强调 SIVE 的真正增长来自光子业务
@bexilon99 你看到的是一个前期开发合同，但那只是他们另一个业务段。 他们真正的增长都来自 photonics。 $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 敞口多头。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bexilon99 You're looking at a pre-production dev contract with their other segment. Their entire growth comes from photonics. $SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure long I've seen.
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认为瑞典媒体终于看懂 SIVE 的股权转移
是啊，我在想，瑞典媒体是不是终于意识到自己干了什么，才去看 $SIVE 的 cap table？ 现在瑞典投资者持有的已经远少于美国机构 / 投资者，而我们正站在下一个超级周期的起点。 本地持股还剩几个百分点，所以希望他们继续发负面文章。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep I wonder if the Swedish media finally realized what they accomplished once they looked at the $SIVE cap table? Now Swedish investors barely hold anything compared to US institutions/investors and we're at the beginning of the next supercycle. There's still a few % to go for local ownership, so hope they keep posting negative articles.
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分析$SIVE股东结构从瑞典散户→美国散户→美国机构的演变过程。
美国/西方现在控制了$SIVE的大部分股份。随着高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利及其他美国机构进入。美国/西方46.8%：- 富达：11.5%（散户）- 嘉信理财：11.4%（散户）- $IBKR：9.3%（主要是散户）- 纽约梅隆银行：4.2%（散户）- 摩根士丹利史宾沙：3.1%（散户/财富管理）- 美国银行：2.8%（散户/财富管理）- 纽约梅隆银行：0.9%（机构）- 摩根士丹利客户资产：0.7%（机构）- 纽约银行：0.5%（机构）- 摩根大通：0.5%（机构）- 摩根大通证券有限公司：0.4%（机构）- 花旗银行纽约：0.3%（机构）- 摩根大通SE：0.2%（机构）- 摩根士丹利：0.2%（机构）- 摩根大通证券：0.2%（机构）- 美银证券：0.2%（机构）- 高盛：0.2%（机构）- 高盛国际：0.1%（机构）- Cbny-Rja-客户资产：0.1%（散户/财富管理）现在很大比例由美国散户股东持有（例如$IBKR代表客户，可能大部分是散户，部分是机构）。新增但规模较小的摩根大通、高盛和花旗银行持仓可能是对冲基金或其他试图建仓的机构。欧洲及瑞士：11.3%- Clearstream：6.2%- 瑞银瑞士：1.6%- Six SIS：0.8%- 欧洲清算银行：0.8%- 盛宝银行：0.6%- 法国巴黎银行：0.6%- Caceis银行/联合圣保罗银行：各0.2%- KBC/LGT/宝盛：各0.1%瑞典约8.49%：- Avanza养老金保险公司-4.76%- Nordnet养老金保险-2.73%- 北欧斯安银行-0.2%- SEB人寿国际-0.1%- 北欧银行-0.7%加拿大/英国/中东约0.6%：- 以色列第一国际银行-0.3%- 加拿大皇家银行-0.1%- 加拿大皇家银行-0.1%- 汇丰-0.1%特别感谢瑞典媒体替美国机构做了这些工作：西方现在拥有约58.7%的所有权。由于当地媒体，瑞典持股比例已降至8.49%。我想知道他们是否意识到自己做了什么——在吓跑当地投资者后，现在股权已转移到美国机构/投资者手中？西方现在在共封装光学(CPO)超级周期之前获得了大部分流通股。你也可以开始看到摩根大通或高盛等美国机构建立初始仓位（代表机构投资者），可能是在美国散户获利了结之后。这可能是在$SIVE达到某个市值门槛以满足基金授权要求之后。但很大比例仍由美国散户持有，通过$IBKR和富达等平台。（这就是我所说的抢先机构一步）摘要：$SIVE从主要：-> 瑞典散户所有权-> 美国散户所有权-> 随着美国散户获利或卖出，逐步转变为美国机构所有权（如果他们找到方法吓跑美国散户，就像瑞典媒体做的那样）。
原推 ↗英文原文
The US/West now controls majority of the shares of $SIVE. With Goldman Sachs/JP Morgan/Morgan Stanley and other US institutions entering. US/West 46.8%: - Fidelity: 11.5% (retail) - Charles Schawb: 11.4% (retail) - $IBKR: 9.3% (primarily retail) - BNY Mellon: 4.2% (retail) - Morgan Stanley Smith Barney: 3.1% (Retail/Wealth management) -Bank of America: 2.8% (retail/Wealth management) - BNY Mellon: .9% (institutional) - Morgan Stanley Client Assets: .7% (institutional) - Bank of New York Mellon: .5% (institution) - JP Morgan: .5% (institutional) - J.P. Morgan Securities Plc: .4% (institutional) - Citibank New York: .3% (institutional) - JP Morgan SE: .2% (institutional) - Morgan Stanley: .2% (institutional) - JP Morgan Securities: .2% (institutional) - BoFA Securities: .2% (institutional) - Goldman Sachs: .2% (institutional) - Goldman Sachs International: .1% (institutional) - Cbny-Rja-Client Asset - .1% (retail/wealth) Large % now owned US retail shareholders (eg. $IBKR on behalf of clients, probably majority retail some institutions). The new but smaller JP Morgan Goldman Sachs, and Citibank % positions are likely hedge funds or other institutions trying to build positions. Europe & Switzerland: 11.3% - Clearstream: 6.2% - UBS Switzerland: 1.6% - Six SIS: 0.8% - Euroclear Bank: 0.8% - Saxo Bank: 0.6% - BNP Paribas: 0.6% - Caceis Bank / Intesa San Paolo: 0.2% each - KBC / LGT / Julius Baer: 0.1% each Swedish ~8.49%: Försäkringsaktiebolaget Avanza Pension - 4.76% Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring - 2.73% Skandinaviska Enskilda - .2% SEB Life International - .1% Nordea Bank Abp - 0.7% Canada/UK/Middle East ~.6%: First Intl Bank of Israel - .3% Royal Bank of Canada - .1% Royal Bank of Canada - .1% HSBC - .1% A special thank you to the Swedish Media doing the work of US institutions: The West now has ~58.7% ownership. Swedish is now down to 8.49% due to local media. I wonder if they realized what they've done now scaring off local investors now that it's changed hands to US institutions/investors? The West have now acquired majority of the float before the CPO supercycle. You can also start to see US institutions like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs building start positions (on behalf of institutional investors), probably off of US retail taking profits. This is likely after $SIVE reached a certain MC threshold for fund mandates. But a large % of it is still owned by US retail on places like $IBKR and Fidelity. (this is what I call frontrunning the institutions) TLDR: $SIVE went from majority: -> Swedish retail ownership -> US retail ownership -> gradual US Institution ownership as US retail takes profit or sells (if they figure out a way to scare off US retail like the Swedish media did).
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认为 SIVE 只是正常回调，股权在转向美国投资者
没什么，只是轻微回调。我对 $SIVE 后续还是很有信心。 这只是 CPO 超级周期前，股份从瑞典人手里标准地转给美国投资者。大概还有 7% 左右还在瑞典本地。 这种回调通常会带来更高的高点，并形成更强的股东基础。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nothing, just a slight correction. I have high conviction in $SIVE moving forward. It’s just a standard transfer of shares to US investors before the CPO supercycle, think Swedish retail have ~7% or so left. Corrections like this tend to lead to higher highs with a stronger shareholder base.
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预计美国上市后股权会从散户转向机构
@Philippe45164 我真觉得这会在美国上市后发生。 然后股份会从美国散户转向美国机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Philippe45164 I'm expecting that to happen after US listing tbh. Then shares go from US retail -> US institutions.
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回复网友关于SIVE如何通过ADR转换在美国市场交易的问题
@xuefeng_huang 如果$SIVE走ADR（美国存托凭证）路线，你可以从瑞典进行ADR转换，它就会开始在美国市场上交易，类似$ARM。
原推 ↗英文原文
@xuefeng_huang If $SIVE goes the ADR route you can do an ADR conversion from Sweden to US and it will just start trading on US markets like $ARM.
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分析$SIVE股东结构剧变，瑞典资本撤离而美国资本接盘，控制权即将完成转移。
我之前说什么来着？$SIVE 正在经历所有权从瑞典向美国转移的过程…… 如果我正确解读了新的大股东名册（cap table）： 美国/西方现在持有 $SIVE 42.18% 的股份： ~$FNF（富达）- 11.5%（美国/西方） ~$SCHW（嘉信）- 11.4%（美国/西方） ~$IBKR - 9.25%（美国/国际） ~ 佩兴集团（纽约梅隆）- 4.15%（美国/西方） ~ 摩根士丹利 - 3.12% ~ 美林证券（$BOA）- 2.76% 欧洲：约 7.73%： 明讯银行（Clearstream Banking）- 6.16%（欧洲） 瑞士银行 - 1.57%（瑞典/欧盟） 而瑞典人现在只持有 $SIVE 约 7.49% 的股份： Avanza Pension 保险公司 - 4.76% Nordnet 人寿保险公司 - 2.73% 此前，Sivers 是一家约 60% 欧洲/瑞典散户持股的公司…… 从那以后一路下跌，接近于零，因为他们在不断抛售股份。 美国人即将获得接近绝对多数的控制权，恰在 2027 年 CPO（共封装光学）超级周期之前。 转让似乎快完成了？
原推 ↗英文原文
What did I say? $SIVE was undergoing a transfer of Swedish ownership over to the US... If I'm interpreting things right from the new cap table. The US / West now owns 42.18% of $SIVE: ~ $FNF (Fidelity) - 11.5% (US/West) ~ $SCHW (Schwab) - 11.4% (US/West) ~ $IBKR - 9.25% (US/International) ~ Pershing (BNY Melon) - 4.15% (US/West) ~ Morgan Stanley - 3.12% ~Merrill Lynch ( $BOA ) - 2.76% Europe: ~7.73%: Clearstream Banking - 6.16% (European) UBS Switzerland AG - 1.57% (Swedish/EU) While Swedish now hold ~7.49% of $SIVE: Försäkringsaktiebolaget Avanza Pension - 4.76% Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring AB - 2.73 Before, Sivers was a ~60% European/Swedish retail owned company... They went from that, down closer to 0 as they keep selling their shares. US has close to majority control, right before the CPO supercycle of 2027. Transfer seems almost complete?
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解释 CPO 前置布局下短期波动和做空比例
@TFillkcs80260 对，如果你在提前押 CPO 周期，波动会很大，因为收入还没真正进入报表。 我估计这一周又有大约 3% 的流通股被做空，所以现在可能在 9% 到 10% 左右。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TFillkcs80260 Yeah there's probably going to be a lot of volatility if you're frontrunning the CPO cycle since revenue hasn't hit the balance sheet yet. Think another ~3% of the float has been shorted this week so should be around 9-10% around now i think.
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估计 CPO scale up 在 2027 下半年
大概 H2 2027 才是 CPO scale up，那是最大的市场机会。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月开始定价。 CPO scale out 会在今年下半年开始。1.6T pluggable bridge 大概在 2027 上半年到下半年之间发生（$SIVE 和 $JBL 有一个相关链条）。 所以在 2027 年后半段的大超级周期之前，会先有逐步的量产爬坡。
原推 ↗英文原文
Probably H2 2027 for scale up CPO, which is the biggest market opportunity. Markets usually start pricing things in 8-12 months in advance. CPO scale out is H2 this year. 1.6T pluggable bridge happens around H1-H2 2027 (Sivers has one with $JBL) So there's incremental volume ramp leading to the major supercycle later part of 2027.
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SIVE激光器供应商客户覆盖多家AI/硅光子明星企业，估值对应的超大规模客户量惊人
$SIVE 向以下公司供应激光器：可能是 $JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、$POET、$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、$AMD、O-Net/Enablence 以及其他公司。 这还不包括他们与 $AAPL 或 $AEVA 的硅光子(silicon photonics)项目，或者他们其他与CHIPS法案相关的工作。 以这个估值来看，他们所服务的超大规模企业(hyperscaler)数量相当惊人。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.
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解释为什么 SIVE 总被瑞典媒体打压，但浮筹仍在转移
SIVE 每天都在重复上演这种剧情，已经像 deja vu 了，哈哈。 这也说明为什么 Sivers 很快会在纳斯达克上市，而不是继续留在本地市场。 每天开盘本地媒体都会来一篇攻击这家前沿公司的文章，然后股价跌 10%： -> “CPO 和 CW lasers 没什么新东西” -> “Sivers 要去跟资金雄厚的 $LITE 和 $COHR 竞争，肯定会因为资本劣势输掉” -> “为了上纳斯达克不得不稀释 2.5%” -> “年报延迟很可疑”（其实是为了上纳斯达克） -> $SIVE 体量不够，无法放大和 $JBL 的关系并扩张。 最后本地瑞典人都在卖，西方投资者 / 基金在接手流通股。 在 CPO 量产前就让西方持有这家公司，显然更好。 纯靠瑞典本地去做一家前沿公司，感觉希望很渺茫，因为本地文化就不太行。
原推 ↗英文原文
Every day it's like this on repeat with $SIVE, it's like dejavu lol. Makes sense why Sivers is getting listed on Nasdaq soon instead of staying in local markets. New local hit piece on their own frontier company happens every market open, stock drops 10%: -> "CPO and the CW lasers is nothing new" -> "Sivers is going up against well funded $LITE and $COHR and will lose because of capital" -> "They had to dilute 2.5% to get listed on Nasdaq" -> "Delayed annual report is sketchy" (to get listed on Nasdaq) -> $SIVE is not big enough to capitalize on $JBL relationship and scale. Local Swedish folks end up selling. Western investors/funds end up acquiring the float. Better for the West to own the company before CPO ramp starts. Creating a frontier company purely from Sweden seems hopeless given local culture.
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对媒体持续误导 SIVE 表示不解
@StormDirac 读这种新闻报道看 $SIVE 真的很有意思。 我只是好奇，新闻媒体为什么每天都要发这么多误导性的帖子。 不过看他们错得这么离谱，也挺有娱乐性。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StormDirac Reading journalism like this is something else for $SIVE. I’m just curious what incentives news media have to publish a lot of misleading posts like this every day. It’s a little entertaining how badly informed reporters are though.
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继续强调 SIVE 是 CPO 超级周期的优质敞口
@PhotonCap 对，$SIVE 是即将到来的 CPO 超级周期里非常有前景的敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap Yeah $SIVE is extremely promising exposure to the CPO supercycle coming up.
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认为算法看不懂供应链映射，只会继续做空
大概率还是纯算法行为，但昨天又有 0.76% 的流通股被做空了。 算法通常看不懂很多供应链映射细节，比如 $AMD 和 $GFS 一起做 CPO。 然后在 $GFS 的图片展示里，$SIVE 只被列成两个激光供应商之一。这就是 alpha，因为你知道别人不知道的东西。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's likely pure algorithmic, but another .76% of the float was shorted yesterday. Algorithms tend to miss a lot of the nuances of supply chain mapping like $AMD going with $GFS for CPO. Then $SIVE listed as 1 of 2 laser suppliers in $GFS image presentations. This is called alpha though since you know something others don't.
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继续讽刺瑞典媒体对 SIVE 的恶意报道
我还在笑瑞典人有多讨厌自己的前沿公司。 他们天天给 $SIVE 写打压文章。 这篇就很有娱乐性：本地记者未经邀请就跑去一栋空着的 $SIVE 行政楼前。 因为他们无法理解 CEO 其实在硅谷，或者设计团队正在美国做 CHIPS Act 相关开发。再加上楼外面没停多少车，以及 CFO 不愿回答关于保密 hyperscaler 合同财务细节的问题。 于是他们又写了一篇莫名其妙的负面稿。 还反复写“做这种激光的公司不止一个，Sivers 远不是唯一一家”。 比如 $LITE、$COHR 这些 600 亿美元以上的公司。 又写早前那种“CPO 没什么特别，很多年都有了”的说法。 而 GS 的预测却是 CPO 在未来两年从 10 亿美元 TAM 增长到 910 亿美元。 他们甚至还把“Plans”写成引号，好像不相信 Sivers 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供激光。 我认为 $SIVE 明年会变成一家 100 亿美元以上的公司，尤其如果他们像 $LITE / $COHR 那样把下游 IP 集成起来，多吃一点 CPO 模块 BOM。 他们根本不懂 hyperscaler 供应链、前瞻成长，以及员工数量不等于收入这件事。 当地瑞典持股向西方转移，这件事其实一直是好事，因为它曾经是一家由本地散户主导的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much. That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE. This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited. Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials. They wrote a random negative hit piece. By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone". Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies. and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years." While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years. Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO. IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM. Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue. Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.
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认为 CPO 是对所有光子公司都成立的新机会
$LITE 原本已经把 EML 和现有 pluggable optical transceivers 的价值定价进去了。 CPO 对所有光子公司来说，都是一个全新的机会，也是巨大的 TAM 扩张。 这是一次重大的架构变化，像 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这种过去没怎么受益的公司，也会明显受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE was priced in for EML and current pluggable optical transceivers. CPO is a completely new opportunity and massive TAM expansion for all photonics players. It's a massive architectural shift, and completely new optical companies benefit like $SIVE or $SOI that didn't as much before.
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用 Coherent 财报再次验证 CPO 的时间线
$COHR 财报笔记： Coherent 的 CEO 基本上又一次印证了 GS 研究里的判断，CPO 会成为非常大的收入驱动。 转录里有一句："One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent"。 对 $SIVE、$LITE 和其他 CPO 相关名字的时间线含义也很清楚： “初始 scale-out CPO 收入预计在 2026 年下半年开始，而 scale-up CPO 收入将在 2027 年下半年跟进”。 “Coherent 正在和多个其他客户合作，并预计 CPO 解决方案会被广泛采用。” 这也再次确认了采用程度。 scale-up CPO 是全盘最大的价值驱动点，会在明年下半年开始。我们现在还在 2026 年上半年，正进入下半年。 所以现在就是在任何东西落到报表前，提前抢跑 CPO 标的的理想时点。 这就是我说的“alpha”——在市场还看不见财务数据时，把未来先定价进去。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月看未来……所以如果大规模量产在 2027 年 7 月开始（也可能再提前）， 而现在是 2026 年 5 月，那一大段定价会在 2026 年 7 月到 2027 年 7 月之间逐步发生…… 也就是在 2026 年下半年到 2027 年上半年之间，先把量产协议和前生产爬坡这些东西价格化。 在市场真正开始定价最大量能驱动之前 2 个月提前布局，就是我所谓的在下一轮 CPO 超级周期里“抢跑”。 我们知道它会来。现在只是在等。
原推 ↗英文原文
$COHR earnings note: Coherent's CEO basically reaffirmed GS research note about CPO being a massive revenue driver: Transcript: “One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent” In terms of timeline implications on $SIVE, $LITE, and other CPO adjacent names, just confirms timelines: "Initial scale-out CPO revenue is expected to begin in the second half of calendar 2026, with scale-up CPO revenue following in the second half of calendar 2027" "Coherent is working with multiple other customers and expects CPO solutions to be widely adopted." - This also reaffirmed adoption level. Scale-up CPO is the biggest value driver across the board that happens start of H2 next year. We're still in H1 2026 entering H2 2026. So this is the ideal time to frontrun CPO names before anything hits the balance sheet. This is known as "alpha"... pricing in things market fully don't know yet by looking at financials. Markets are typically forward looking 8-12 months... So if massive volume ramp happens July 2027 (might get pushed forward again)... And it's May 2026, a lot of that gets priced in between July 2026 and July 2027... between volume agreements H2 2026, and pre-production ramp H1 2027. 2 months before markets price in the largest volume drivers is what I call "frontrunning" the next CPO Supercycle. We know it's coming. Just a matter of waiting.
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LITE财报后市场误读CPO利好导致光学股被错杀，CPO超级周期才刚开始。
我认为很多人会很惊讶地发现，股票并不会直线上涨。 今天： 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE 再到 $AAOI，激光类公司分别下跌 -8.0%、-10.2% 和 -4.38%。 台湾涉及共封装光学(CPO)概念的公司如 MSSCorps、Shunsin 以及相关公司 Win Semi 跌停 -10%。 $AXTI 和 $SOI 分别下跌 -7% 和 -10.2%。 这是在 $LITE 发布财报之后。 我非常确定，市场错过了财报电话会议中关于 CPO 概念的强烈利好信号，但对于 $SIVEF 或 Shunsin 这样的 CPO 概念股来说，这是极度看涨的，然而算法交易却卖出了所有光学股。 这仍然是整个 CPO 超级周期的非常早期的阶段。 在任何量能上升之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%. After $LITE reported earnings. Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical. This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve. Before any volume ramp.
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认为 LITE 外购 CW lasers 让 AAOI 和 SIVE 受益
是的，$LITE 承认自己被迫从竞争对手那里购买 CW lasers，这对 $AAOI 来说是巨大利好。 因为他们自己就有 CW laser fab，而且目标是在 2027 年把产能提升 350%。 $LITE 财报电话会最重要的 nuance 是：$NVDA 已经在上游给 CW lasers 造成了巨大瓶颈。 很可能 $COHR 和 $LITE 都签了多年的 EML 协议，所以它们被锁死了，没法生产足够的 CW lasers。 我持有的一些原来被认为是“Tier 2”的名字，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，现在很可能因为没有被 Nvidia 完全分配产能而地位上升。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes, $LITE admitting they're forced to buy CW lasers from their competitors is a massive win for $AAOI. Since they have their own CW Laser fab (and target 350% increase in capacity by 2027). The massive nuanced takeaway from $LITE earnings call: $NVDA caused a massive upstream bottleneck for CW lasers. It's likely $COHR and $LITE have multi-year EML agreements, so they're locked up and can't produce enough CW lasers. A lot of the former "Tier 2" players I own like $AAOI and $SIVE, are likely elevated in status now given they're not fully allocated to Nvidia.
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发现 LITE 外购 CW lasers 对 SIVE 是重大利好
这是个新信息：$LITE 被迫从外部竞争对手那里买 CW lasers。 很可能是因为他们和 EML 签了 2027 到 2028 的合同，自己产能不够…… 所以 $SIVE 会成为一个很大的受益者，因为其他 hyperscaler 供应商会转向别的 CW laser 供应商，还有亚洲那些大玩家，比如 Sumitomo + $COHR。 我们看看市场能不能把 1 加 1 连起来。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is new information discovery that $LITE is forced to buy CW lasers from external competitors. Likely because they have EML contracted from 2027-2028 and can't produce enough CW... So $SIVE is a massive beneficiary of other hyperscaler suppliers going to other CW laser suppliers + the big ones in Asia like Sumitomo + $COHR. We'll see if markets can put 1+1 together.
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LITE 的 CW laser 瓶颈验证了 SIVE 的上游地位
哇……巨大的 CW laser 瓶颈。 有意思的是，$LITE 被 CW lasers 卡住了，所以它们要去公开市场买： “现在我们在自己的供应链里，确实看到一点紧张，必须去外部市场拿 lasers，也就是 CW lasers。” $SIVE / Win、Sumitomo、Furukawa 等都在一个结构性卖断货的市场里…… 很可能是因为像 $LITE 这样的公司必须继续生产 EML。 这也开始解释了为什么 Ayar 在网站上只把 $SIVE 列为唯一 laser 供应商，还把 $LITE / $MTSI 删掉了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah... Massive CW laser bottleneck. It's interesting $LITE is bottlenecked by CW lasers so they buy them on the open market: "Now we’ve seen a little bit of tension in our own supply line, externally to get lasers from the external market, CW lasers." $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and others operate in a structurally sold out market... Likely because companies like $LITE have to keep producing EMLs. Starting to make more sense why Ayar made $SIVE the only laser supplier on their website and removed $LITE / $MTSI?
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CPO面临全行业供需失衡，多处产能瓶颈将显现。
$LITE CEO在财报电话会中措辞是"CPO存在巨大的供需失衡"。 我认为即便是$SIVE、$GFS、Win、Shunsin，以及所有CPO相关公司，都会面临需求过剩的局面……从而在多个环节引发全行业瓶颈。 但话说回来，$AMD的CPO项目可能不得不选择其他激光供应商，比如$SIVE，因为$NVDA锁定了产能。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE CEO on their transcript worded it as "massive supply demand imbalance on CPO" I think even $SIVE, $GFS, Win, Shunsin, and everyone CPO related will have too much demand... leading to an industry wide bottleneck on multiple chokepoints But yes, $AMD CPO program likely had to go with other laser suppliers like $SIVE as a result of $NVDA securing capacity.
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认为 LITE 已确认 CPO 超级周期和 TAM 扩张
$LITE 的 CEO 基本上确认了 GS 的 TAM 扩张和 CPO 超级周期。 从接近 0 到 910 亿美元。H2 2026 到 2028： “我认为我们已经说过，CPO 会有巨大的供需失衡” 需求大于供给。 “最大的单一增长驱动，scale-up CPO” 巨大的收入驱动就是 CPO。 “现在还非常处于早期”。 我们正站在起点。 这正是为什么我会持有 $SIVE、MSSCorps、Shunsin、$TSEM、$SOI 等，去获得对 CPO 超级周期起点的高 beta 暴露。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE CEO basically confirmed GS TAM expansion + CPO Supercycle. From ~close to nothing -> $91B. From H2 2026 to 2028: “ I think what we’ve said is that we will have a massive supply demand imbalance on CPO” Demand > Supply. “Largest single growth driver, scale-up CPO” Massive revenue driver is CPO. “is very much in its infancy”. We’re at the beginnings. This is exactly why I have positions in $SIVE, MSScorps, Shunsin, $TSEM, $SOI and others for high beta exposure to the start of the CPO supercycle.
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利盟特姆业务广泛，2028年前满负荷订单，长期看好但短期不确定。
$LITE（利盟特姆）基本上什么都做，CW/EML激光器、光学引擎等。我主要用CPO增长曲线来分析像$SIVE或MSSCorps这种没有前期业务基础的纯概念公司。对于利盟特姆，你需要看整体TAM（总可寻址市场），从150亿增长到1540亿美元，因为他们的目标市场很广泛，包括CPO。他们在2028年前基本上是满负荷订单状态，尤其是与$NVDA的合作，这是最大的指标。我不认为他们会达不到盈利预期。但“达标”基本上是预期内的，所以不知道短期会怎么走，很多取决于期权流向，基本是抛硬币。长期方向上，我认为仍然值得持有，短期怎么走就见仁见智了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE basically does everything, CW/EML lasers, optical engines, etc. I used CPO growth curves mainly for pure play names like $SIVE or MSSCorps that didn't have previous exposure. For Lumentum you want to look at overall TAM which was $15B -> $154B since they're kinda targeting most things, including CPO. They're basically fully booked through 2028, especially with $NVDA that's the biggest indicator. I don't see how they don't beat earning projections. But the "beat" is pretty much expected, so dunno which way it goes short term and a lot of it is option flow/coin flip. Directionally long term it's still a hold in my view, anyone's guess what happens short term.
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强调自己从未见过比 CPO 更牛的板块
再强调一次我的难以置信： 我从来没见过比 CPO 更看多的板块。 GS 把光学 TAM 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元 -> 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，增长 9 倍。 其中 CPO 就占了 910 亿美元。 从今天大约 1.64 亿美元的采样阶段（Modor 的 2026 估算）一路到 910 亿美元（GS 2028），这条曲线就是 55,000%+ 的增长。 这正是为什么算法 / 分析师会犯错，因为他们只会看这些 CPO 名字的 TTM 营收。 但接下来两年里一切都会发生在 $SIVE、Shunsin、MSSCorps、$SOI 这些名字身上。 这是在 $NVDA 推动下，从 0 到 100 的巨大架构转移。 我真的不认为散户或市场已经明白接下来会发生什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just reiterating my disbelief: I have never seen a sector more bullish than CPO. GS reported Optical TAM 9X from $15b in 2026 -> US$154b in 2028 CPO making up $91B of that. Starting from ~$164M (Modor for 2026 / sampling) to $91 Billion (GS 2028) 55,000%+ CPO growth curve starting from today This is exactly why algorithms / analysts mess up because they might look at TTM revenue at these CPO names. But everything happens in the next two years with $SIVE to Shunsin to MSSCorps to $SOI. This is Zero to 100 from a massive architectural shift pushed by $NVDA. I genuinely still don't think retail or markets understand what's coming yet.
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
原推 ↗英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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认为市场还没把 SIVE 全部定价完
@bigjeffm 我真的不认为市场已经把 $SIVE 全部定价进去了。 这也是为什么它每天都还在涨 10% 到 20%。 事情不会一下子全部完成。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bigjeffm I really don't think markets have priced all of this in yet with $SIVE. Which is why it keeps going up 10-20% a day. It doesn't happen all at once.
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认为 SIVE 在 GFS 生态图里被列入极其看多
没错，市场可能漏掉了 $SIVE + $GFS SCALE 这件事。 $SIVE 被列为 $GFS 生态图里两个公开 laser 供应商之一，这对 Sivers 来说是极度看多的信号。 每当像 $AMD 这种公司使用 $GFS 做 CPO、再借助 GlobalFoundries 搭建光学方案时， Sivers 大概率就是他们的光源，给 $AMD -> hyperscaler 这条链路供能。 带着 CPO 的 hyperscaler buildout 最终会流到这家只有 17 亿美元市值的小型 laser 光源公司 $SIVE 身上。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes, markets might have missed this with $SIVE + $GFS SCALE. The inclusion of $SIVE as 1 of 2 public laser suppliers in $GFS ecosystem image presentation is a highly bullish indicator for Sivers. Whenever semis like $AMD (using $GFS for CPO), builds their optical solutions with GlobalFoundries. Sivers is the likely light source for their buildout and powers companies like $AMD -> Hyperscalers. The hyperscaler buildout with CPO flows down to this tiny $1.7B MC laser light source in $SIVE.
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长期极度看多 SIVE，按 GS 报告看是直线向上
@TR7016 对 $SIVEF 长期极度看多。 如果你看 Goldman Sachs 的 CPO 报告，接下来几年基本就是一条巨大的垂直线往上。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TR7016 Extremely bullish on $SIVEF, especially long term. If you look at Goldman Sach’s report on CPO it’s just a massive vertical line up over the next few years.
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认为 SIVE 也是 Lightelligence 的潜在未披露激光供应商
有个很有意思的点：$SIVE / $SIVEF 也很可能是 Lightelligence 的未披露激光供应商。 感谢 Plaskpojen 做的 OSINT 发现。 https://t.co/sj2J0b9ycN
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun thing to note: $SIVE / $SIVEF is the likely undisclosed laser supplier for Lightelligence as well. Credit to: Plaskpojen for the OSINT find. https://t.co/sj2J0b9ycN
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为 SIVE 7 年研发终于开花而高兴
听到这个我很开心，恭喜。$SIVE 7 年的开发和研发终于开始回报了。 不幸的是，很多媒体把本地投资者吓跑了，让他们错过了这波上涨。 但我会尽量让大家理解整个光子生态到底发生了什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
That makes me happy to hear, congrats. 7 years of development and R&D is finally paying off with $SIVE. Unfortunately a lot of media scared off local investors that now missed on all the upside. But I do try my best to inform folks about what’s happening in the broader photonics ecosystem.
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认为Sivers处于CPO超级周期初期，类比当初的AXTI和LITE
你听了吗，匿名者？ 我们仍然处于Sivers CPO（共封装光学）超级周期的非常初期阶段，这仍然令人疯狂。 这就是我一直叫出的那些名字最初的感觉，比如$AXTI，过去一年涨幅超过6000%+。 仍然认为Sivers是下一个$LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? It’s still crazy we’re still only at the very beginning of a multi year CPO supercycle with $SIVE. This is what it feels like to be the very first to the names I’ve called out like $AXTI, up 6000%+ over the past year. Still think Sivers is the next $LITE. https://t.co/JdfMd7sNTK
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认为SIVE估值被低估，重点关注管理层对CPO激光产量爬坡指引。
我个人认为 $SIVE 今天应该值 $30亿，明年最终会达到 $100亿以上。 财报其实不重要。我只关心管理层关于激光产量爬坡的指示，用于两个共封装光学(CPO)项目（$JBL 和可能的 $AAPL 硅光子学项目）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TheGreekEuler I personally think $SIVE should be $3B today and ends up $10B+ next year. Earnings don’t really matter. Just care about indication from management about laser volume ramp for both CPO programs / $JBL and likely $AAPL silicon photonics program.
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再次强调 CPO TAM 扩张过于夸张
GS 已经把 CPO 超级周期画成了不正常的 9 倍 TAM 预期。 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元到 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，其中 CPO 占 910 亿美元。 这就是为什么我对这类名字这么看多。
原推 ↗英文原文
GS has mapped out the CPO supercycle with unholy projections of 9x TAM projections. From $15B to $154B in a short timeframe. CPO contributing $91B. This is why I’m so bullish on $SIVE as one of bleeding edge CPO laser suppliers. Reminds me of the horse Golden Tempo. But for lasers. Still a small $1.5B MC, while all the others are tens of billions.
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回怼把这些名字叫 meme stock 的人
@piques15 大家都说 $AXTI、$AAOI 和 $SIVE 是“没有基本面的 meme stocks”，笑死。 然后 Goldman Sachs 就甩出这份神级预测。
原推 ↗英文原文
@piques15 Everyone kept saying $AXTI, $AAOI, and $SIVE were "memestocks with no fundamentals" lmfao. Then Goldman Sachs just drops this banger of projections.
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解读 GS 光学 TAM 9 倍增长的 CPO 细节
Goldman Sachs 关于 Optical Networking 的预测。 整体 TAM 会增长 9 倍： 从 150 亿美元到 1540 亿美元。 CPO 占其中 910 亿美元。 这到底是什么情况？ 对，这也是为什么像 $LITE、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这类名字值得关注。
原推 ↗英文原文
Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking. Aggregate TAM would increase 9x: From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B. What the actual? Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging). This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.
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SIVE 是激光瓶颈供应商，可能供货多家CPO厂商却未被机构发掘。
$SIVE 处于高盛所说的具有显著每股收益(EPS)上行空间的激光瓶颈环节。 但它们仍未被机构发现，尽管它们可能与 $AMD 共封装光学(CPO)、$MRVL CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、$POET 等公司有关联。 Ayar 被提及了，但奇怪的是他们没有找到它们的上游激光供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is in the laser chokepoint that Goldman says has significant EPS upside. But they're undiscovered to institutions still, despite their likely mapping to $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, $POET, and others. Ayar got mentioned though, but strange they didn't find their upstream laser supplier.
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认为 CW/EML laser chokepoint 上行空间最大
@jojowamikko 我也有我自己的看法。 但我同意 CW / EML laser chokepoint 是上行空间最大的之一。 他们漏掉了很多名字，我会更关注这些，因为它们相对更纯。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jojowamikko I have my own opinions. But agree that the CW/EML laser chokepoint has one of the highest upside. They missed a ton of names, and I'd focus on those since they're relatively "undiscovered" to institutions.
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列出自己最偏好的高 beta 和复利型名字
@Meatusmax 如果是我个人会这么做： “高上行火箭”： 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI 复利型： 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
@Meatusmax Maybe here's what I'd do personally: "High Upside Rockets": 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI Compounders: 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE
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认为激光器环节是CPO供应链最被低估的瓶颈，拥有InP垂直整合等多项期权价值。
最近关于"共封装光学(CPO)供应链"的讨论很多，什么是最被低估的环节？让我发表一下我的观点： 激光器瓶颈（$LITE、$SIVE、$COHR）是目前接触光子学和CPO的最佳途径。 因为存在大量期权价值，这给了Lumentum等公司溢价空间。 具体体现在： -> 随着可插拔光收发器的出现，下游IP总可寻址市场(TAM)不断扩展 -> InP激光器晶圆厂的垂直整合，而非无晶圆厂(fabless)模式 -> 多道工序的垂直整合，例如测试甚至封装 把你自己想象成在经营一家公司，并快速推进到$100B或$300B的规模。 不要仅仅基于预测的收入和利润率来做电子表格模型。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's a lot of discussion around "CPO supply chains" and what's the most undervalued. Let me put my opinion out there: The laser chokepoint ( $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR ) is by far the best exposure to photonics and CPO. Because there's so much optionality that gave companies like Lumentum the premiums. With: -> downstream IP TAM expansion as seen with pluggable optical transceivers -> vertical integration of InP laser fabs rather than fabless. -> vertical integration of multiple processes eg. testing or even assembly. Treat it like you're running your own company and speedrunning it to $100B or $300B. Not just spreadsheet modeling off projected revenue/margins.
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看好SIVE和GFS，因其无晶圆厂模式易扩张，类似NVDA+TSM的成功路径
@Leon8995385220 $SIVE 可能已与 Win Semi（稳懋半导体）锁定产能分配协议以实现规模扩张，并与 $GFS（GlobalFoundries）合作。这就是为什么我对这两只股票都做多，作为无晶圆厂(fabless)模式容易扩张，有点像 $NVDA + $TSM。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Leon8995385220 $SIVE likely locked up allocation agreements with Win Semi to scale. And works with $GFS. Which is why I'm long on them both, easy to scale as fabless, kinda like $NVDA + $TSM.
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Sivers成为CPO关键激光供应商，NVDA引发的产能瓶颈正驱动AMD等厂商争抢上游资源。
看到$SIVE成为CPO(共封装光学)的Tier 1激光供应商，这真的很疯狂。 这是我的预测/猜测与大致映射： $NVDA用$COHR、$LITE的产能（在他们新的20亿美元以上支出计划之后）。 早期2025年EML用了同样的手法，导致了今天的瓶颈。 现在，$AMD/超大规模云商正在争抢上游激光供应商。 因此，$SIVE + Win / $GFS成为可能的主要途径。 你可以从以下看出： -> $MVL CPO通过Celestial（Nvidia签了协议，但他们没有激光器） -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> 其他项目（如Jabil 1.6T） 因此，Sivers/Win成为Tier 1尖端关键独立激光供应商。 这一点的一些暗示： 1. $GFS在其生态系统中将$SIVE / $LITE列为仅有的两家公开激光供应商。 2. Ayar将$LITE / $MTSI从其网站上移除，并将$SIVE提升为主要激光供应商。 所以其他所有人最终都选择了Sivers，因为$COHR / $LITE已经完全分配。 我的猜测是，随着架构标准化，许多二级供应商也会抢占溢出市场份额。 明年年初，考虑到$NVDA的瓶颈，这场争夺关键环节的竞争将异常激烈。 而这家瑞典小型公司$1.2B规模的$SIVE将处于这场竞争的中心。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's pretty insane to see $SIVE become a Tier 1 laser supplier for CPO. This is my prediction/guess with est. mapping: $NVDA ate up all the capacity with $COHR, $LITE after their new $2B+ spending spree. Same playbook with EML early 2025, causing the bottleneck seen today. Now, $AMD / hyperscalers are scambling for upstream laser suppliers. Hence why $SIVE + Win / $GFS became likely primary route to go down. You can see this with: -> $MVL CPO through Celestial (Nvidia signed a deal, but they don't have lasers) -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> and other programs (eg. Jabil 1.6T) As a result, Sivers/Win emerged as the Tier 1 bleeding edge + critical independent laser supplier. And there's hints for this when: 1. $GFS listed $SIVE / $LITE as the two only public laser suppliers in their ecosystem. 2. Ayar removed $LITE / $MTSI off their website and elevated $SIVE to their primary laser supplier. So everyone else ended up going with Sivers since $COHR / $LITE are fully allocated. My guess is that a lot of the secondary suppliers also capture overflow as architectures standardize. But scramble for this chokepoint will be insane early next year given $NVDA bottleneck. And a small $1.2B Swedish company in $SIVE will be in the center of it.
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CPO仍处早期，将远超可插拔光模块超级周期规模
@MontagueCap CPO（共封装光学）一切都还处于极早期阶段。所有像$LITE这样的光学公司，从可插拔光模块超级周期发展至今，现在已达到数百亿美元规模。 CPO的规模将远超大量现有预测，而像$SIVE、MSSCorps这样的公司目前还在10亿美元规模左右。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MontagueCap Anything CPO is EXTREMELY early. All the optical companies from the pluggable supercycles like $LITE are now in the tens of billions. CPO will dwarf a ton of projections, and companies like $SIVE, MSSCorps are still in the $1B range.
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回顾自己提前抓住多轮超级周期
去年我提前点出了 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 和 Innolight…… 今年： 我找到了 $SOI，也就是 SiPH substrate，相当于 $AXTI。 然后又找到了 $SIVE，也就是 laser chokepoint。
原推 ↗英文原文
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
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认为 2.5% 稀释只是为纳斯达克上市筹资
@hcnyl0819 这就是为了纳斯达克上市融资的 2.5% 微不足道稀释。 和字面意思的稀释不同，这其实是一个非常看多的事件。
原推 ↗英文原文
@hcnyl0819 This is literally the 2.5% microscopic dilution to get funding for NASDAQ listing for $SIVE. It's a highly bullish event contrary to the word dilution.
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认为被设计出局是短期必然
@Belisapata 短期看，它们在未来一代里大概率会被设计出去。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Belisapata Short term, they’re going to get designed out in future gens.
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CPO市场将迎抛物线式增长，是最佳早期布局机遇
以防你们想知道我为什么对CPO（共封装光学）如此看好。比如$SIVE（激光器）、Shunsin（封装）、MSSCorps（良率）、Win Semi/$TSEM（晶圆代工）。\n\n"CPO市场预计从2026年到2030年将以142%的复合年增长率强劲增长（不含ELS）"\n\n"规模扩展CPO细分市场预计将在2030年前超过规模扩展应用，成为主导市场。\n\n未来几年将呈现近乎抛物线式的增长。\n\n许多像Sivers这样的厂商之前对800G可插拔光模块几乎没有实质性敞口，但却是CPO领域最前沿的激光器供应商领导者。\n\n这是由$NVDA和$AVGO驱动的下一代光学超级周期中最好且最早的机遇之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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强调高置信 thesis 最后都会翻倍
你在开玩笑吗？如果我对 thesis 有把握，我会直接写高置信。 我对 $SIVE、$AEHR、$AAOI 都是这么做的，最后它们都翻了三倍。 我不会分享仓位大小，因为这并不重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Are you kidding? I always write high conviction if I’m confident in my thesis. And I do it with $SIVE, $AEHR, $AAOI, which all end up tripling. I don’t share position sizing since I don’t want blind copy traders. People should manage their own portfolio and build their own conviction. Without just copying me.
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解释屏蔽Moody的原因，强调与专业人士合作研究SIVE
不，我屏蔽Moody是因为他们靠散布我告诉他们的某个名字的虚假信息来建立粉丝群体。我是和@Plaskpojken一起研究$SIVE的论点，不是和一些用猫图片的随机家伙。
原推 ↗英文原文
@zizonchain No, I blocked Moody because they build their entire following spreading disinformation that they told me about a name. Worked on $SIVE thesis with @Plaskpojken, not some random guy with a cat picture. https://t.co/jekBxsDgNy
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揭示机构借媒体打压股价后建仓的套路，批评机构非散户友军。
$SIVE是一场从瑞典本地投资者到美国投资者的巨额财富转移。本地人等待了很多很多年，期待所有激光研发能在共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(silicon photonics)上得到回报。但现在随着超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的量产出货在2026年下半年至2027年上半年，他们却得不到任何上涨收益，因为在信任当地媒体后把股票转让给了美国/西方投资者。我的预测是，如果Sivers在纳斯达克达到40-80亿美元，我们会看到同样的媒体待遇。然后股票又从美国散户转移到美国机构。你已经在这场底部看到了同样的剧本，比如$IQE和$SOI...当时机构发布"研报"说Soitec被高估了。一个月后股价涨了3倍，因为摩根士丹利恰好买入$SOI流通股的6.5%...或者Point72买入$IQE。机构不是你的朋友。不过我是在为散户的最佳利益着想。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media. My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US. Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions. You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued. The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE. Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.
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作者两个月前逆势做多$EWY，现在浮盈约3倍，证明自己判断正确。
两个月前所有人都在唱空 $EWY。 称其为“白银崩盘”或“高丽指数泡沫”。 现在他们全都改口，说自己一直看多存储器。 即便从 $RPI 到 $SIVE 的恐惧发帖不断，我的论点最终还是正确的。 我能积累24.5万+粉丝的主要原因，是我对自己的观点始终保持一致性且立场坚定。 我的 $EWY 多头仓位现在浮盈约3倍。 （引用内容）： 感觉所有人都在唱空韩国综合指数（KOSPI），说： > “看看这图表，它不可能一直涨下去！” > 存储器是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 要等3年才能交付预订单） > $EWY 基本就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，不能代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨。 > 存储器需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争就消失，只是会变得更贵。 > 原油/LNG能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云厂商，不会被运营费用吸收。 这看起来是恐惧抛售和去杠杆化（3倍杠杆ETF和10倍可能已被清洗），而不是实质性运营问题（略有 bearish 阻力，但不至于 -30%）。 SK海力士期货现在市值交易区间在$300B 高位到 $400B 低位。 如果 $MS 和更新的分析师预期即使略微正确，SK海力士的营业利润例如将达到约$300B。 到2028年他们将坐拥大量现金储备，即使存储器价格下跌也不怕。（甚至还没考虑需求变成结构性）。 这看起来又是另一个DeepSeek-Nvidia式的恐惧抛售情形，尤其是在nand/dram价格最近再次调涨之后。更像是底部时机的把握问题。 像这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的标题党抛售更重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Everyone was doomposting $EWY 2 months ago. Calling it “Silver Crash” or “KOSPI crash bubble” Now they’re all flip flopping opinions, saying they were bullish memory all along. Even despite fear posting from $RPI to $SIVE, my thesis ends up right. Main reason I got 245K+ followers is because I’m consistently right about my opinions while taking a firm directional stance. My $EWY longs are now up ~3x.
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说自己点中的多只光子股都涨了三倍
@vz921 我猜自己点中 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$SOI、$AEHR 这些，今年都涨了 3 倍，是运气好？
原推 ↗英文原文
@vz921 I guess it’s just luck calling out $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $SOI, $AEHR, and others that all went up 3x this year?
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
原推 ↗英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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SIVE 估值仍有上行空间
我认为在 $YSS + Golden Dome 和 Lightmatter 这些信息/新闻出来之后，$SIVE 今天现实中的估值大概应该在 30 亿美元左右。 纳斯达克上市不会从根本上改变它，但会给它更多流动性，用来弥合估值差。 明年冲到 100 亿美元非常有可能。 如果它们愿意通过下游 IP 收购来加速，我认为未来几年内它有一条现实路径去挑战 600 亿美元以上的 $LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think $SIVE realistically should be valued around ~$3B today after information discovery/news around $YSS + Golden Dome and Lightmatter. NASDAQ listing doesn’t change it fundamentally, but gives it more liquidity to bridge that valuation gap. Next year $10B very possible on volume ramp. And I see a realistic path to competing with $60B+ $LITE over next few years if they want to speedrun it with downstream IP acquisitions.
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西方机构开始关注 SIVE
有个有意思的事实：我不认为任何大型美国机构之前持有过 $SIVE / $SIVEF，因为它原本主要是瑞典本土散户持有的股票。 另外，美国基金也有一些投资限制，阻止它们入场（例如纳斯达克上市 / 10 亿美元市值）。 但如今情况已经变了，原因包括欧洲媒体把本地持有人洗出来、Sivers 即将登陆纳斯达克，以及市值突破 10 亿美元以上。 而且 13 亿美元对超大规模云厂商和美国机构来说真的只是零钱。 我很有把握他们很多都会想要接触 CPO、硅光和激光领域，因为全世界能做这类东西的公司本来就很少，比如 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MTSI。 尤其是……一家具备 CHIPS Act 背景的激光供应商，可能会出现在 $AMD、$MRVL、$AAPL、Lightmatter、Ayar、AlChip、GUC、O-Net 以及其他像 Golden Dome 这样的供应链里。 这部分也有博弈论因素，是为了积累股份。 因为现在美西方散户已经持有了相当大一部分流通股（来自瑞典卖盘）。 而美国机构现在也想要敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.
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祝贺持有 SIVE 的收益
@philllyfanatic 恭喜！最后其实都是你自己做的决定，我只是分享了我对 $SIVE 的思路。 希望那能在明年变成 100 万美元以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
@philllyfanatic Congrats! You made all the decisions yourself in the end, I just share my thought process on $SIVE. Hope that turns into $1M+ next year.
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SIVEF 因 Golden Dome 叙事走强
如果你想知道为什么 $SIVEF 今天又涨得更多。 $SIVE 作为 CHIPS Act 受益者： 现在很可能在为 Golden Dome 提供支持。 作为上游半导体供应商，因为 Sivers 的主客户 ALLSPACE 被 $YSS 收购了。 York 恰好又是一家国防主承包商，和太空军、太空发展局、国防部以及 Golden Dome 都有关联。 所以，Sivers 这家小小的瑞典公司，基本上通过一条后门，接入了美国太空建设链条。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today. $SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient: Now likely powers the Golden Dome. As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS. York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome. So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.
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SIVE 仍被低估
@Berlinergy 我看到 $SIVE 到 2027 年会到 100 亿美元以上。 我不觉得大多数人或市场已经意识到它会映射到多少家超大规模云厂商供应商……而且他们也还没把 IP 收购带来的 TAM 扩张算进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Berlinergy I see $SIVE at $10B+ in 2027. Don’t think most people or markets realize how many hyperscaler suppliers they map to yet… also they didn’t factor in TAM expansion with IP acquisition yet either.
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感谢补充 Lightmatter 线索
@Plaskpojken 是啊，我之前确实找到了 $SIVE 和 Lightmatter 的一些引用，但因为没找到像你那样的确认，就一直没写进评论里。 谢谢你指出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Plaskpojken Yeah I found some references to $SIVE and Lightmatter but never included it in my commentary since I couldn’t find confirmation like you did. Thanks for pointing it out.
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Lightmatter 直接买 SIVE 激光器
你提供的照片只是例子。但我一直猜 Lightmatter 很可能是客户，因为他们以前就提到过它。 但我指的是那句关于“客户”的报价：它们融资了 2.5 亿美元（Lightmatter 1.54 亿 + Celestial 1 亿），这更像是 Lightmatter 直接购买 $SIVE 激光器的证据。
原推 ↗英文原文
The photo you provided were just examples. But I always guessed Lightmatter was a likely customer because they referenced them before. But I was about the quote around "customers" that raised $250m (Lightmatter $154m + Celestial $100m), so that's more of evidence of direct relationships of Lightmatter buying $SIVE lasers.
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Lightmatter 似乎在用 SIVE 激光器
从这些参考资料看……Lightmatter 似乎确实在用 $SIVE 的激光器？ 这是全新的信息发现，对 Sivers 来说极其正面。 Lightmatter 是一家体量巨大的私营龙头（2024 年估值大约 44 亿美元），而 $TSM、$GFS、$TSEM、$AMKR 和 $ASX 都在扩展它的光学项目。 而 Lightmatter 的确需要光源…… $SIVE 还恰好和 $LITE 一起出现在 $GFS 的激光源供应商名单里，所以这些线索开始拼起来了？ 终端用户很可能就是你的超大规模云厂商，比如 $MSFT、$GOOGL（他们投资了）、$META 等，通过 Lightmatter-GUC 等路径进入。 我不认为市场已经把这些都定价进去了，因为整个供应链 BOM 都非常保密，而且很多只是推测。 但当 CPO 和下一代光子架构开始放量时，量产爬坡带来的营收会突然出现在资产负债表上。
原推 ↗英文原文
From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers? Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers. Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program. And Lightmatter does require a light source... $SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together? End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others. I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative. But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
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Celestial 可能是 SIVE 直接客户
很棒的发现。基本上从旧投资人材料和融资金额来看： 看起来 Celestial 曾经就是 $SIVE 的直接客户。 所以：$MRVL 现在大概率是在直接从 $SIVE 买激光器，而不是通过 Poet 购买（Poet 再买 Sivers 激光器来封装）。 因为 Celestial 最初就是围绕 Sivers 的激光器设计的。 Marvell 可能早就准备好通过垂直整合，绕开封装 IP 和组装环节，以获得更高利润率。 现在直接供货给 $MRVL，对 $SIVE 来说非常利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
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SIVE 仍处早期
@Cassian21828964 如果有什么的话，$SIVE 在 11 亿美元市值下其实非常早期，我认为它今天轻松就该值 20 亿美元以上。 它们站在 CPO / 1.6T 激光的前沿，映射到大量超大规模云厂商，而你现有的激光公司都已经是几百亿美元市值了。 我觉得它就是下一个 $LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Cassian21828964 If anything $SIVE is extremely early at ~$1.1B and I think it should easily be $2B+ today. They’re the bleeding edge of CPO/1.6T lasers mapping to tons of hyperscalers while all your existing laser companies are in the tens of billions. I think it’s the next $LITE.
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信息发现让别人受益
很高兴看到我的关注者正在借助 $SIVE、$AAOI 之类的名字，或者其他名字，摆脱永久性的低层阶级。 股票本来就是正和游戏。 如果信息整合 / 发现是正确的，而且能帮助别人建立自己的判断，那大家都会受益。 我最感谢的还是那 1 美元！
原推 ↗英文原文
Happy to see my followers are escaping the permanent underclass with names like $SIVE, $AAOI, or others. Stocks really are positive sum. Everyone benefits if information synthesis / discovery is correct and helps people from their own conviction. I appreciate the $1 the most!
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醒来看到 SIVE 上涨
@ClewyCat 没有，我还是很累。不过醒来看到 $SIVE 涨了 24.94% 还是挺开心的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ClewyCat No, I’m very tired still. But it’s nice to wake up to $SIVE up 24.94%
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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SIVE 可能迎来 CHIPS Act 第二轮
提示一下……$SIVE 的 CHIPS Act 第二轮资金很快就要来了（这和 CHIPS Act 的续周期相一致） 美国政府不会随便把钱发给一家市值 10 亿美元的瑞典公司。 这非常不寻常。市场很可能漏掉了什么。 因为他们拿到了这些资金： -> $RTX 和 $ERIC 的波束成形器（空间/电信）。 -> BAE Systems 的 STAR 双工阵列（电子战中的雷达干扰）。 国防主承包商很可能正在用 Sivers 的微芯片 IP 来造最终产品。 至于最终产品……还有什么空间 + 军工承包商应用会涉及 LEO 卫星？我想你应该能猜到。 这些国防主承包商并不是要在太空里播放泰勒·斯威夫特的 YouTube 视频…… 但商业衍生品也可以用于 SpaceX / Amazon LEO Kuiper 这类应用。 不管怎样，你还拥有 AI 光子这条故事线，而这才是核心增长垂直领域。 我最兴奋的还是光子……但你也顺手得到了一家由美国 CHIPS Act 背书、嵌入 Raytheon 和 BAE Systems 的公司，去做那些他们在太空里想搞的黑科技。 只是没人知道精确时间线和应用，因为 CHIPS Act 国防合同就是这种性质。 但它也许会在未来的财报里突然出现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hint... $SIVE CHIPS Act round 2 incoming soon (consistent with the CHIPS Act renewal cycle) The U.S. government doesn't just give out funding to random $1B Swedish companies. It's highly unusual. And there's probably something markets are missing. Since they got funding for: -> $RTX and $ERIC Beamformers (space/telecom). -> BAE Systems for STAR duplex arrays (radar jamming during electronic warfare) Defense Primes are likely using Sivers microchip IP to build the final products with this. As for the final products... What other space + military contractor applications are there involving LEO satellites? And I think you can guess. The defense primes aren't trying to play Taylor Swift Youtube videos in space... But the commercial spinoff can also be used for SpaceX/Amazon LEO Kuiper type applications. Regardless, you have the side of the AI photonics story, which is the core growth vertical. I'm most excited for photonics... but you also happen to get a company backed with U.S. CHIPS ACT embedded in Raytheon and BAE Systems for whatever black magic they want to do in Space. Just nobody knows exact timeline + applications because due to the nature of CHIPS ACT defense contracts. But it might appear randomly in financial statements down the road.
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SIVE 不打算卖
我的意思是，$SIVE 是一只我不打算卖出的股票。 光子学的 TAM 对 AI、机器人、消费电子硬件（比如 $AAPL）和太空领域来说都大得离谱…… 而且 Sivers 正好站在下一代架构的最前沿，也是少数几家公开交易的龙头之一，另外两家大概是 $LITE 和 $COHR。 再加上下游 IP 收购，TAM 扩张也会非常大。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean $SIVE is a stock I don't plan on selling. Photonics TAM is absolutely massive for AI, robotics, consumer hardware (eg. $AAPL), Space... And Sivers happens to be in the bleeding edge for next-gen arhictectures and one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR. TAM expansion is also massive, especially with IP acquisition downstream.
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机构会慢慢吸筹再提示散户
这是真的。 我在 $SOI 还在 40 美元时点出来后，银行分析师里有几个人就开始阴阳怪气，之后它又涨了 125%。 $SIVE 也是一样，它已经涨了几百个百分点，而且还在继续涨。 但这些机构最后又会在 $IQE 到 $AXTI 这些名字上买回去。 通常机构会在几个月里悄悄吸筹，不抬价格，同时从散户手里拿走流通盘。 然后等涨很多了、自己已经持有公司 5% 之后，再回头告诉散户。 但如果市场更快地把这些因素定价进去，机构就只能在更高的位置买。 这本质上就是在超周期标的上抢跑机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
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Win Semi 是 HBM4 量产核心
所以 $SIVE 不负责产能扩张，真正负责量产爬坡的是 Win Semi。 Win 的体量非常大。$AVGO、$LITE、$QCOM、联发科、$MTSI、$NXPI 全都在用他们。 他们也在 $AAPL 和 SpaceX 的供应链里。所以只要你锁定 Win 的产能，超大规模云厂商的量产放量就是可去风险的。
原推 ↗英文原文
So $SIVE doesn't handle capacity scaling, Win Semi does volume ramp. Win is massive. $AVGO, $LITE, $QCOM, Mediatek, $MTSI, $NXPI, all use them. They're in $AAPL, SpaceX supply chains too. So volume scaling for hyperscalers is derisked if you secure allocation and do it through Win.
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POET 被替代意味着 Marvell 直连 SIVE
所以 $POET 做的是封装那一层的事情。 如果 $MRVL 放弃了 Poet，意思就是 Marvell 认为自己可以把那一层垂直整合进 Celestial，并且直接自己买激光器（不只是 nda 纠纷那么简单）。 Marvell 还是得买激光器。我相信他们会准备多来源合同，但我不认为 $NVDA 会把分配额度分给 $MRVL。 这也是为什么 $SIVE 很可能仍然是直接供货给 Marvell 的激光供应商，因为它们已经符合 Celestial 的规格，这样就能直接去掉一个中间层玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
So $POET does the packaging side of things. If $MRVL dropped Poet, it means Marvell felt they could vertically integrate that layer into Celestial and just buy lasers directly themselves (not just the nda dispute). Marvell would still need to buy lasers. I'm sure they're planning multi-source contracts but I don't think $NVDA would share allocation to $MRVL. Which is why $SIVE is likely still the laser supplier direct to Marvell since they fit celestial specs already, and that just cuts out a middleware player.
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日本散户持仓是好信号
我很高兴日本社区在研究之后开始建 $SIVE 仓位！ 更强的国际股东基础总是正面的。 至于我的一些看法，市场现在看起来像这样： 1. $NVDA 把 $LITE / $COHR 的分配额度买走了 2. $AMD 的 CPO 走的是 $GFS + $SIVE / Win，剩下的激光供应可能会给 $LITE，如果还有分配的话。 3. 还有……$MRVL 的 CPO 不管怎样都需要激光器。 $SIVE 看起来是最后几家纯 merchant laser 供应商之一。 所以 Marvell 大概率会直接用 $SIVE（本来就符合 Celestial 规格），后面再多来源（也许是 $MTSI）。之后他们再把进入 Celestial 的中介封装 IP 垂直整合掉。 支持这个判断的有一些有意思的点： -> Ayar 把 $MTSI 和 $LITE 从官网上删掉了，改用了 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。Ayar 和 AlChip/GUC 等都有连接。 -> 如果看 $GFS 的幻灯片，在 $AMD 把 CPO 项目交给 GlobalFoundries 之后，只剩下 $SIVE 和 $LITE 两家公众公司。 -> $SIVE 很可能从去年开始就和 Win 有激光产能爬坡协议。 $NVDA 很可能还没把这些激光产能完全分配完，所以像 $JBL、$AMD 以及其他公司会把溢出订单给 Sivers。 因为 $LITE 已经暗示 2028 年的产能基本满了。 我可能也有错，但基于公开信息来看，情况就是这样。 至于为什么我认为它是个好长线： -> Sivers 基本上过去没怎么暴露在 800G 或更早的代际里。 -> 欧洲市场按过去 12 个月营收定价……所以之前估值一直被压得很低。 -> 它们拿到了 $NVDA 造成的超额需求。 但它们也正好站在 CPO 和甚至下一代 1.6T（$JBL LRO）扩产的最前沿，明年就会开始。 然后到 2027 年下半年或 2028 年，还能扩到硅光等相邻领域，比如可能的 $AAPL 消费设备。 或者 FMCW 4D AI 公司，比如 $AEVA。 这么多年开发，终于在明年要开花结果了。 我个人觉得市场漏掉了一个大东西，公开信息会随着时间推移慢慢被大家通过供应链关系、网站挖掘或者演示材料发现。 超大规模云厂商供应商不会无缘无故选一家 10 亿美元市值的瑞典激光公司。 和 $JBL 的直接合同就是最大的信号。 这也是我为什么高 conviction 做多。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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龙虾类比
假设 $SIVE、$LITE 是做特制的蓝色和红色缅因龙虾。 这非常稀有，没多少人能做出来。 $POET 负责把龙虾蒸熟，并装进即食容器里。 $MRVL 把这些龙虾尾买来，和西兰花、牛排一起装盘。 然后以最高价格卖给高端客户。 Marvell 以供应蓝色龙虾尾而闻名。 但也能一直卖红色的，而且它更容易继续卖他们已经习惯的蓝色款。 红色龙虾农场主也可以花些功夫转产蓝色龙虾，但养出来需要时间。 但……碰巧 Marvell 的竞争对手 Nvidia 把所有红龙虾都买去给自己的餐厅用了。 最后，他们还是需要那些稀有的蓝色缅因龙虾。只不过决定自己来蒸。 这就是 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。他们大概率会直接自己去买龙虾，因为你没法凭空变出蓝龙虾。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pretend $SIVE, $LITE make specialized blue and red maine lobsters. Very rare, not many people can do. $POET steams the lobsters and prepares it in a ready-to-go container. $MRVL buys those lobster tails, puts it together on a plate with broccoli and steak. Then serves it at the highest price to high end customers. Marvell is famous for serving Blue lobster tails. But can always serve Red ones, and it’s easier to keep serving Blue that they’re used to. And it’s also possible for the Red lobster farmer to shift to Blue lobsters with some effort, but it takes time to raise those lobsters. But… it just so happens Marvell’s competitor Nvidia bought out all the Red Lobsters for their restaurant. In the end, they still need those rare blue Maine lobsters. But just decided to steam it themselves. That’s $POET and $MRVL situation. It’s likely they’ll just go buy lobsters directly since you can’t just spawn Blue lobsters.
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AAOI 也可能是潜在客户
谢谢提醒。 $AAOI 也有可能是其中之一，因为他们在 OFC 上宣布了一个 ELSFP。 他们通常都是自家代工，然后卖成品光模块。他们有这种可选性。 但我不认为这和 $SIVE 设计进 Celestial 的架构是一样的？我得再研究一下。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for reminding me. It's possible for $AAOI could to be one since they announced a ELSFP at OFC. They usually just do captive and sell the finished optical transceivers. They have the optionality to. But I don't think it matches the same architecture that $SIVE designed into Celestial? Will need to look into it more.
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MRVL 可能直接向 SIVE 采购
@mpunaskar 这件事挺微妙的，不算完全正面，但也可能最终更正面。 我猜 $MRVL 很可能会直接向 $SIVE 采购。 直接对接超大规模云厂商，比如 Sivers + $JBL，要比中间再加一家公司正面得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mpunaskar It's nuanced, it's not positive but could end up more positive. It's very likely $MRVL just buys directly from $SIVE is my guess. Going direct to hyperscaler like Sivers + $JBL is much more positive than adding in another company in the middle.
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激光和封装是两码事
这显然不是一回事。激光和封装在光学供应链里是两个实质上不同的环节。 如果我的 thesis 失效了，我会像当初对 $XLU 和降息那样坦白说出来。 但我对 $SIVE 仍然非常看多，因为我还是认为 $MRVL 会为了 Celestial 直接从他们那里买，然后把 $POET 的封装流程垂直整合掉。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's clearly not. Laser and packaging are two materially different parts of optical supply chains. I would be transparent if the thesis breaks like I did with $XLU and rate cuts. But I'm incredibly bullish on $SIVE since I still think $MRVL just buys directly from them for Celestial and vertically integrates the $POET packaging process.
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LITE/COHR 产能大概率已给 NVDA
$LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经把大部分甚至全部产能分配给了 $NVDA，正如 Nvidia 去年对 EML 做的那样。 由于 Win 是 merchant foundry，想对它这么做更难，所以 $MRVL 大概率会直接去找 $SIVE，因为他们本来就符合 Celestial 的规格。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE and $COHR are probably majority/fully allocated to $NVDA after their deals. Since Nvidia did the same thing with EML last year. It's harder to do that with Win since they're a merchant foundry, so it's likely $MRVL just goes directly to $SIVE since they already fit Celestial specifications.
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MRVL 长期受益于垂直整合
@O_bhaina $MRVL 长期会从把封装流程垂直整合中受益。 我猜他们很可能只是达成一笔交易，然后直接从 $SIVE、$MTSI，也许还有 $LITE 那里买激光器。
原推 ↗英文原文
@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.
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LITE 更可能供给 NVDA
@adrian_jega $LITE 的大部分产能大概率是分给了 $NVDA，而不是 $MRVL。 Ayar 把 $LITE 从官网上移除了，而且在这之前他们主要是在 $SIVE、$MTSI 和 $LITE 之间多来源采购，这其实就是一个提示。 所以他们会需要别的激光合作伙伴。
原推 ↗英文原文
@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.
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SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
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LITE 的产能分配影响 AM D/MRVL
这不算好消息，但也没那么糟。 $LITE 的产能大概率已经分给了 $NVDA，这也是为什么 $AMD 的 CPO（大概率）会去用 $SIVE + $GFS，我是这么猜的。 $MRVL 大概会直接从 $SIVE 买货，然后多来源，可能再加上 $MTSI，并把封装层在内部设计掉。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.
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MRVL 可能直接买激光器
很有可能现在 $MRVL 会直接从 $COHR、$SIVE 或 $LITE 采购激光器。 这只会让 Marvell 的 Celestial 路线图延后一些。 但我一直都预期封装这层最终会被垂直整合，只是没想到这么快。 激光 IP 要复杂得多。 激光公司为什么都值几十亿美元，是有原因的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
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MRVL 可能自研中介层封装
$MRVL 很可能会把那个 interposer 封装 IP 变成内部能力。我原本就预计他们会在后面把 $POET 设计出去，只是没想到这么早。 他们完全可以直接从 $LITE 或 $SIVE 这种公司买激光器，然后自己搭建整个流程。 激光设计比封装难得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
$MRVL will likely do that interposer packaging IP in-house. I did expect them to design out $POET down the road, just not this early. They can just buy lasers directly from someone like $LITE or $SIVE and build the process themselves. Laser design is much much harder than the packaging side of things.
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MRVL 要把封装垂直整合
@BrokeBoyCap 哦，我猜 $MRVL 是在买了 $SIVE 或 $LITE 这类公司的激光器之后，把封装流程垂直整合掉。 我之前说的就是这个，后面那一层比上游激光容易多了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BrokeBoyCap Oh, I'm guessing $MRVL is vertically integrating the packaging process after buying the lasers from someone like $SIVE or $LITE. That's what I said earlier it's a lot easier to do that layer than upstream lasers.
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SIVE 业务很分散
哦，$SIVE 肯定没问题，因为它们已经高度多元化了。 它们大概基本上服务所有人： -> $AAPL 硅光 -> $JBL（可能最大） -> $AMD CPO 项目配合 $GFS， -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC 和其他 ASIC 设计商 -> O-Net ELS 还有其他客户。虽然这会在实质上让 2028-2029 年后期的预测稍微往后推一些（比如 Q4 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元）。 但如果它们的光源最终以某种方式进了 Marvell，我也不会惊讶。
原推 ↗英文原文
Oh $SIVE is definitely fine, since they're vastly diversified. They likely basically serve everyone: -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics -> $JBL (probably largest) -> $AMD CPO program with $GFS, -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC and other ASIC designers -> O-Net ELS amongst others. Though this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029). But wouldn't be surprised if their light source ends up in Marvell one way or another.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
原推 ↗英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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SIVE 可能是苹果供应链关键
现在很明显，$SIVE 很可能就是 $AAPL 的硅光“圣杯”供应商…… 市场只是还不知道而已（这就叫 Alpha）。 如果你想知道怎么把 Apple 映射到 Sivers： > “美国财富 100 强”客户。 > 每年 5000 万台规模的 RFQ（报价请求）。 > Apple 2022 年大约卖了 5390 万块 Apple Watch，年销量通常在 3800 万到 5000 万台之间。 > $SIVE / Carnegie research 发布了 135 个波长架构，这和 Apple 的应用规格匹配。 真的……全世界还有哪个美国财富 100 强公司能这么轻松地一年做 5000 万台消费穿戴设备？就连三星也就是 1000 万到 1500 万台。 这刚好和激光架构和应用场景对应上。 $SIVE 在 X 上还暗示过来自开发时间线的量产爬坡，我猜那是苹果（H2 2027 爬坡或 H1 2028），但也可能是 Ayar 或 Jabil。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL... Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha). If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers: > "US Fortune 100" customer. > RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year. > Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually > $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications. literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units. That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications. $SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.
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每涨 10% 就捐狗舍
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ 你太好了！每次 $SIVE 涨 10%，我就期待关注者给狗狗收容所捐 1000 美元！
原推 ↗英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ How nice of you! Every time $SIVE goes up 10%, I have an expectation that followers donate $1K to a dog shelter!
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GFS 经历过的人懂 SIVE
@vas_203 你曾在 $GFS 工作真酷，很高兴听到你对 $SIVE 的看法！
原推 ↗英文原文
@vas_203 Super cool that you worked at $GFS and glad to hear it about $SIVE!
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SIVE 像迷你版 LITE
@piyush1337 对，$SIVE 就像迷你版 $LITE。 $AAPL Watch 如果/当真的推出，对 Sivers 收入的拉动可能会很大，因为他们每年大约能做 5000 万台。
原推 ↗英文原文
@piyush1337 Yeah $SIVE is like a mini $LITE. $AAPL Watch if/when it gets released is likely going to massive for Sivers revenue given they do ~50M units/year.
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SIVE 仍被严重低估
我还是觉得 $SIVE 被严重低估了。 市场好像只是慢慢开始意识到，它可能是 $AMD 的激光供应商？ 顺便说一句，在 $GFS 的演示材料里，唯一两家公开的激光公司就是 $SIVE 和 $LITE……而 AMD 的 CPO 项目最终走的是 GFS。 而且在 Ayar 的网站上，$SIVE 是唯一还留在上面、和 GFS 并列的公司，因为他们悄悄把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从合作伙伴板块删掉了。 AlChip 和 GUC 也正好都是超大规模云厂商供应商里的大角色。 感觉 Sivers 的激光明年会出现在很多地方。
原推 ↗英文原文
Still think $SIVE is vastly undiscovered. Feels like markets are only slowly starting to realize the likely laser supplier for $AMD? The only two public laser companies were $SIVE and $LITE on the $GFS presentation by the way…. after AMD’s CPO program went the way with GFS. And $SIVE is the only one left alongside GFS on Ayar’s website after they silently removed $LITE and $MTSI from their partner section. AlChip and GUC also happen to be pretty big for hyperscaler suppliers too.. Feels like Sivers lasers are going to end up everywhere next year.
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CPO / 玻璃基板 / 光学测试分工
@wdh37 $SIVE 用于 CPO / 1.6T 激光 $LPK 用于玻璃核心基板 Shunsin 用于光学测试 / 封装。 我也喜欢很多别的名字，比如 $HPS.A 或 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers $LPK for glass core substrates Shunsin for optical test/packaging. Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
原推 ↗英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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Win Semi 让 SIVE 放量去风险
@Sopcaja 不，因为 $SIVE 的量产爬坡已经被 Win Semi 去风险了，这是我另一个多头。 Win 是 $AVGO 以及现有 SpaceX / 超大规模云厂商供应链的代工厂，所以它非常可靠。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Sopcaja No, because $SIVE volume ramp is de-risked by Win Semi, my other long. Win is the foundry for $AVGO and existing SpaceX/Hyperscaler supply chains, so it's heavily dependable.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
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光子学正处于新超级周期
这件事非常微妙，我来解释为什么它不是“晚了”，只是对有些人来说已经晚了： 光子学是最新的超级周期（也许从 2025 年上半年到下半年就是起点）。 然后每个超级周期里都会有很多不同的架构变化： -> $LITE、$COHR、Innolight、$AXTI 这些名字引领了第一波 我之前那篇 thesis 把它们四个都列成了最大受益者（1 年涨幅都在 500%-1000%） -> $AAOI、$JBL 以及其他类似名字，会作为过渡桥梁受益巨大（例如 1.6T 可插拔） -> $SIVE、Celestial、Ayar、$POET 是未来几代，比如 CPO（我现在重点看的就是这个） -> VisEra、QD Laser、$ALMU 等等，若你把时间拉到 4 年后，很可能会是下一代（量子点、不同封装类型等） 当然，$LITE 什么都做，$AXTI 什么都能用。 但在每个小超级周期里，每次架构切换所对应的纯敞口是不一样的。 比如，量子点里 InP 还是会用，但占比会更少。或者 CPO 用 DFB 激光阵列而不是 EML。 $LITE 和 $COHR 也许还是会占 50%+。 所以你在“晚”的意义上确实有点靠后。 但对于新的架构世代，你其实又非常早。 我想做的，就是免费把普通散户往新金矿方向指一指。 在机构花 2 万美元买股票研究报告之前，先让大家知道这些。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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SIVE 让我想起早年的 AMD
@H0M3b 我看 $AMD 的时候，它十年前还在 3.5 美元附近，但大家都说他们打不过 $INTC。 还总说英特尔随时都能把他们干掉。 我对 $SIVE 和 $LITE 也有点类似的感觉？不过走着看吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
@H0M3b $AMD was $3.5 almost a decade ago when I was looking at it but everyone kept telling me they couldn't compete with $INTC. And that Intel could just beat them anytime. Kinda feeling the same with $SIVE and $LITE? But we'll see.
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从小众领导者里复制人生级收益
$RDDT 上最火的两条故事： 1. 用 $AMD 把 25.2 万美元做到 770 万美元 2. 用 $RKLB 把 16.7 万美元做到 220 万美元。 这些故事大概率是真的，因为你确实能在半导体到太空等不同产业里，找到这些小众领导者，从而改变自己的人生。 一次又一次都是这样。 关键在于： -> 找到这些利基行业里稀有的宝石 / 领导者。 -> 仓位要足够集中，才有意义。 -> 要有足够的 conviction 去熬过波动。 -> 让 thesis 自己走完（哪怕要跨几年）。 你已经多次看到我在光子链条里这样做了，比如 $AXTI、$IQE、$SIVE 等等。 但现在一切都被 AI capex 加速，5 年的东西被压缩成几个月。
原推 ↗英文原文
Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These stores are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life around: Again and again across different industries with semis to space. What matters is: -> Finding these rare gems / leaders in a niche field. -> Having enough concentration, for it to matter. -> Having enough conviction to sit through volatility. -> Letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others. But everything is just speedran from 5 years to months due to AI capex acceleration.
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博主吃披萨时联想到股票，日常闲聊。
@justfisch2 我喜欢市中心的Slivers披萨，因为它现在让我想起$SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
@justfisch2 I liked Slivers pizza downtown because it reminds me of $SIVE now.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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SIVE 破千就稳了
@01100101j 等 $SIVE 涨到 1000% 再说吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
@01100101j When $SIVE hits 1000% sure.
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光子链条整体都在涨
光子学起飞。 $MXL +76.2%（哈哈） $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% 希望你没有卖掉以后去追别的卡点，匿名网友？ https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics go brrr. $MXL +76.2% (lol) $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
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SIVE 正在走纳斯达克流程
@CludioNune67383 对？这意味着 $SIVE 正在积极推进纳斯达克上市的步骤，而不是只是在“想一想”。
原推 ↗英文原文
@CludioNune67383 Yeah? That means $SIVE is actively doing the steps to list on Nasdaq not just “thinking about it”
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AAPL 供应链假设
@fredrikmob49943 你好，瑞典本地朋友。如果不是 $AAPL： 请你给我举一个别的美国财富 100 强公司（排除三星后）的例子，它每年能出货 5000 万台以上…… 那么它就能匹配 $SIVE 的研发激光规格和应用，对吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
@fredrikmob49943 Hi Swedish local. If it's not $AAPL: Please name me another US Fortune 100 company (not Samsung by elimination) shipping 50M+ units yearly... That fits $SIVE R&D laser specs + applications then?
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Rockley 退出后 SIVE 补位
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley 掉下去了，这很可能就是 $SIVE 成为 $AAPL 供应商的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley went down, which is likely the reason why $SIVE became the $AAPL supplier.
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META 可能是终端客户
@xm_build 这甚至都算不上泄密…… 你知道 $SIVE 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供货，而当你指出 $META 很可能是最终终端客户时（因为 Meta 是 $INTC 的硅光客户，而 Jabil 已经收购了这个链条）， 人们就会生气，然后开始做空。这个文化挺有意思的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@xm_build It's not even leaks though... You know $SIVE is supplying to $JBL 1.6T LRO and when you point out $META is the likely end user (because Meta is the $INTC SiPH customer Jabil acquired). People get upset and start shorting. It's an amusing culture.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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SIVE 可能更早放量
我当时估计的是 2027 年 9 月，或者 2028 年上半年。$SIVE 提供的图表也许暗示放量会比预期更早。 如果一家公司让我等 5 年研发，我个人不会去做多。 但我做多，是为了拿到过去 5 年开发成果带来的上行，以及 2027 年来自 Ayar、$AAPL 和其他客户的量产爬坡。
原推 ↗英文原文
I had September 2027 or H1 2028 as my estimates. Graph provided by $SIVE might hint at earlier ramp than expected. I personally wouldn’t go long on a company if I had to wait 5 years for R&D. But I went long to get the upside from all development for the past 5 years with Ayar, $AAPL, and other for 2027 volume ramp.
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Win Semi 负责扩产
Win Semi 负责扩产……这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因，这样他们就不用自己烧 capex 去处理这件事。 世界上能做这类事的公开上市公司没几家，而且它们都已经是几十亿美元市值了。 $JBL 专门选 Sivers 是有原因的。Ayar 也是。和 $LITE、$MTSI 等相比都一样。 只看市值就低估这家公司的人真的太多了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this. There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions. There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Ayar. Compared to $LITE, $MTSI and the others. People really underestimate the company just by looking at the MC.
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Win Semi 替 SIVE 做量产爬坡
@B_Funk_ Win Semi 负责给像 $SIVE 这样的公司做量产爬坡。Win 体量很大，而且是 SpaceX 供应链和 $AVGO 的代工厂。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B_Funk_ Win Semi hands volume ramp for companies like $SIVE. Win is massive and is the foundry for SpaceX supply chains and $AVGO.
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AAPL 使用 SIVE InP 激光阵列
秘密是，$AAPL 🍎 正在用 $SIVE 的 InP 激光阵列来大规模生产消费硬件（高置信度）。 按估计和图表来看，发布时间大概在 2027 年下半年。 想象一下 Apple 每年以 5000 万台以上的规模生产消费硬件…… 还是用一家市值 8.5 亿美元的激光供应商，哈哈。 然后 Apple 一旦这么做，$GOOGL、三星以及其他公司也会跟着上。
原推 ↗英文原文
The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence). Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided. Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year… Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol. Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.
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SIVE 的最佳 TA 形态
这其实是我最喜欢的 $SIVE 技术图形。 我把它叫做： “把公司所有权从瑞典本地人转移给美国投资者 / 机构。” 时点刚好卡在美国纳斯达克上市和超大规模云厂商 2027 年量产爬坡之前。 特别感谢那边的媒体。 https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
原推 ↗英文原文
This is actually my favorite $SIVE TA setup. I name this: "Transferring ownership of the company from Swedish locals to American investors/institutions." Good timing right before US Nasdaq listing and hyperscaler 2027 volume ramp. Special thanks to the media over there. https://t.co/eLMqRQ5CSB
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交易和投资分开看
有些东西是拿来交易的，有些东西是拿来投资的。 我自从上个月买了 $SIVE 之后，一股都没卖过。我觉得如果他们按正确方式出牌，它会是下一个 $LITE，这就是一笔长期投资。 至于像 $AXTI 这种，我已经涨了 1000%+，但我还是拿着。对于光子这类多年超级周期，不需要卖。 我确实会在看到周期接近尾声，或者有重大变化时，去交短期资本利得税。比如我之前就把 $HOOD、$MSTR 和加密相关名字都卖掉了。乌克兰和平协议出来后，军用无人机相关名字我也做过短线回撤交易。像 $META 或 $MSFT 这种短线修复交易我也会做。 其他长期投资就只要拿着，让它复利，再用保证金提取来避免触发资本利得税。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in. I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment. As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell. I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too. Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.
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博主表示高确信看多$SIVE，并举例HOOD和RKLB历史高确信建仓均获利丰厚
我对$SIVE有很高的确信度。我所有历史上高确信度的选择都大幅盈利了，比如当初20美元的$HOOD或者十几美元的$RKLB。
原推 ↗英文原文
@leglock140448 I have high conviction in $SIVE. All my historical high conviction picks are green by a lot like $HOOD back at $20 or $RKLB in the 10’s.
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LWLG 和 SIVE 的估值对比
@SidkMena $LWLG 只有一项和 $TSEM 的开发协议试验，市值却有 22 亿美元。 $SIVE 正在出货激光器，明年很可能会进入几乎所有超大规模云厂商的光学项目里，而市值只有 8.2 亿美元。 这是我今天看到的最被低估的机会之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SidkMena $LWLG has one developer agreement trial with $TSEM and is valued at $2.2B $SIVE is shipping lasers that likely ends up in every hyperscaler optical program next year and is valued at $820m One of the most undervalued opportunities I see today.
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SIVE 被市场严重低估
@Dulbas163452 谢谢！这些内容都是我在脑子里自己映射出来的，所以我个人会觉得 $SIVE 被低估得很离谱、上行空间也很大…… 但大多数人其实不太懂，所以用流程图的形式总是更有帮助。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Dulbas163452 Thanks! This is just mapped in my head so I personally see how stupidly undervalued/high potential $SIVE is... Majority of others don't really understand though, so flowchart format always helps.
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SIVE 还有很大上行
@SpilledMocha 我确信，只要 Marvell、Jabil、Ayar、O-Net 和其他公司有足够的 CPO / 1.6T 放量，$SIVE 从这里翻 10 倍是有可能的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SpilledMocha I'm convinced $SIVE could 10x from here if there's enough CPO/1.6T volume ramp from Marvell, Jabil, Ayar, O-Net, and others.
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SIVE 正在对接 AAPL
@ashmyro 我已经知道 $SIVE 是下一个很可能的 $AAPL 供应商，这很重要。 我自己最关注的是它们给 AI 数据中心供货的 DFB 激光，因为那会是它们未来的核心营收驱动力。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ashmyro I'm already aware $SIVE is the next likely $AAPL supplier, which is huge. I've been focusing on their DFB lasers going to AI datacenters the most personally, since that's their core revenue drivers in the future.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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SIVE/LPK 是 2027 新技术
嗯。CPO / 玻璃基板这块，可能就是 $SIVE 或 $LPK，因为它们都是 2027 年会出现的新技术变化。 我真的不觉得市场已经理解了 Sivers 在 CPO / 1.6T 光模块上会发生什么……即便我已经把它映射到 $AMD 或 $MRVL 的 CPO 项目里。 LPKF Laser 也让我觉得风险被降低了，因为我们知道玻璃核心基板是马上要来的，而且它们在很小的估值下就掌握了一个根本性卡点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hmmm. Probably $SIVE or $LPK for CPO/Glass Substrates since those are emerging technological shifts in 2027. I really don't think markets understand yet what's up and coming with Sivers for CPO/1.6T optical transceivers... even if I show mapping to $AMD or $MRVL CPO programs. LPKF Laser feels de-risked since we know glass core substrates are up and coming and they hold a fundamental chokepoint at tiny valuations.
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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POET 盘前大涨
哇，我漏掉了这个。 这大概就是 $POET 盘前涨 20.2% 的原因，它验证了“远超采购订单”的说法，再叠加和 $MRVL 的供应商关系。 这也会实质性传导到 $SIVE 的激光产量上。 我个人觉得市场两边都还没有完全计价进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
Oh wow, I missed this. That's probably why $POET is up 20.2% pre-market confirming "far in excess" of purchase orders on top of $MRVL supplier relationships. That translates materially to $SIVE laser production as well. Markets haven't fully priced in either yet imo.
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博主炫耀自己早前推荐的IQE等股票被机构买入，强调研究前瞻性。
各位，大家都曾质疑我推荐的像$IQE这样的股票。 但为什么…我发了研究报告之后，瑞银或Point72这些机构都买入了？ 不知道瑞典媒体是否在做空$SIVE，但他们意识到是谁发掘了$AXTI的价值吗？ 我非常有信心，机构可能很快会跟进，因为Sivers的激光器为$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar等公司提供动力…这些都与$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN及其他超大规模企业有关联。
原推 ↗英文原文
Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE. Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts? Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI? I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others… with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
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SIVE 仍有巨大上行
@scrotum_pensif 我还是认为，$SIVE 今天应该值 20 亿美元，而且如果 Ayar、$MRVL、$JBL 等在 2028 年的量产爬坡顺利，明年可以到 100 亿美元以上。 他们现在一切条件都对齐了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@scrotum_pensif I still think $SIVE should be valued $2B today and can hit $10B+ next year depending on volume ramp from Ayar, $MRVL, $JBL and others in 2028 They have all the stars aligned right now.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
原推 ↗英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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瑞典人卖， آمریک人买
@ThriveSnap 可能是因为每天早上都有一些本地瑞典打击稿在写 $SIVE。 然后美国人就把本地人卖出的东西全买走。 这就是公司控制权在公司还小的时候转移的方式。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ThriveSnap Probably because every morning there’s some local Swedish hit piece on $SIVE. Then Americans just buy everything locals sell. Thats how control of the company gets transferred while it’s still small.
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POET 直供 MRVL
哇……$POET 今天盘前涨了 20.5%，而此前还已经涨了 19.32%。 主要原因是 CFO 的采访确认他们是 $MRVL 的直接供应商。 我想知道市场是不是已经知道上游激光供应商是谁了？（提示：$SIVE）。 https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah... $POET is up 20.5% premarket today after a 19.32% gain. Mainly after the CFO's interview confirming they're the direct supplier to $MRVL. I wonder if markets know who the upstream laser supplier is yet? (hint: $SIVE). https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
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AMD 的 CPO 供应链
哇……如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，并在 $GFS 上推进，那么 Sivers 看起来就是 $AMD CPO 项目的主要激光供应商。 有意思的是：$LITE 和 $MTSI 曾经被悄悄地、按顺序从 Ayar 的网站上移除了。 （特别感谢我的一位关注者 Setian 发来私信。） 所以 $SIVE 很可能先成为 Ayar 一代产品的主要激光供应商……进而成为经由 Alchip 或其他 ASIC 设计公司流转的所有 Ayar 客户的供应商。 Ayar 上个月还为了量产融资 5 亿美元，而 $SIVE 已经被设计进去。 这个发现对 $SIVE 来说结构上非常重大，因为它削弱了 $LITE 等公司作为主要供应商的叙事。 尤其也削弱了市场对 $SIVE 在 CPO 里只占很小激光份额的说法，如果它们很可能就是主要激光供应商的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS. The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time. (Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.) So $SIVE likely became the primary laser supplier for Ayar first-gen... and by extension for all of Ayar's customers routing through Alchip or other ASIC design firms. Ayar also raised $500M last month for VOLUME PRODUCTION, where $SIVE is designed in. This find looks structurally massive for $SIVE as it undercuts narratives about $LITE and others being primary suppliers. And especially about $SIVE having only a small % laser share for CPO if they're likely to be the primary laser supplier.
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瑞典媒体看不懂光子学
我真的笑了。这大概是我目前见过最搞笑的标题了，自从 $RPI 那次之后。 你会看到瑞典那些不懂技术的记者，对半导体 / 光子学一窍不通。 他们在分析 $SIVE，还告诉所有本地人（大多数持股者）赶紧卖掉，因为它只是个“meme”。 他们不懂围绕即将到来的 $JBL 1.6T 或 $MRVL CPO 放量的超大规模云厂商认证周期吗？ 也不懂它刚刚被验证为 $GFS 生态里的激光供应商，而且 $AMD 正在推动新的 CPO 需求吗？ > 一定是 meme。只能按 2025 年 TTM 资产负债表和旧营收预测来估值，对吧？ 至少这种波动有助于在明年 CPO / 1.6T 关键拐点之前，把控制权转给美国投资者 / 机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI. You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics. Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme". Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp? Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand? > Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right? At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.
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AMD/GFS 的 CPO 反而利好 SIVE
$AMD 和 $GFS 的 CPO 公告，对 $SIVE 的影响可能比市场预期更大。 在这个消息下，$SIVE 激光很可能会支持 AMD 的 CPO 项目。 可能有两条路径： 1. Enosemi（AMD 在收购后做的内部 PIC 设计）。Enosemi 的芯片小片由 GF 代工，但对于 ELS，$AMD 可能会从多家供应商采购，而 $SIVE 可能是底层多来源激光源。 2. Ayar（AMD 在 2026 年 3 月投资，Series E）。Ayar 的 SuperNova 光源已经和 $LITE 一起使用了 $SIVE 的 DFB 激光阵列。 由于时间线和上个月那次巨额融资，Ayar 的 SuperNova 很可能是 MI500 在 2027 年的第一代 CPO 路径。那条路径已经把 $SIVE 设计进去了，而且它和 $LITE 都出现在 $GFS 的幻灯片里。 Enosemi 也许会在 2028 年及以后几代里更重要？ 不管怎样，$AMD 通过 Enosemi / Ayar 还是需要激光器来支撑他们 2027 年的 MI500 上市…… 看起来 Sivers 很可能会作为光源，支持 AMD 的 CPO 项目，因为它已经被设计进 Ayar 了。 $AMD / $GFS 这条线对 Sivers 的重要性看起来很大。
原推 ↗英文原文
The $AMD and $GFS CPO announcement is probably bigger than markets expect for $SIVE. With the news, it's likely $SIVE lasers power $AMD's CPO program. Either through two potential paths: 1. Enosemi (AMD's in-house PIC design post-acquisition). Enosemi's chiplets are fabbed at GF but for the ELS, $AMD could source it from multiple players with $SIVE as the underlying multi-source laser source. 2. Ayar ( $AMD invested in March 2026, Series E). Ayar's SuperNova light source already uses $SIVE DFB laser arrays alongside $LITE. Ayar's SuperNova is the most likely first-gen CPO path for MI500 in 2027 given timelines and the enormous fundraise last month. That path already has $SIVE designed in alongside $LITE and they both appear with $GFS's slide. Enosemi becomes more relevant for 2028+ generations? Regardless, $AMD through Enosemi/Ayar needs lasers for their 2027 MI500 rollout... It seems likely Sivers ends up powering $AMD's CPO program as the light source since they're designed into Ayar. The $AMD / $GFS materiality looks large for Sivers.
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SIVE 可能明年就到 10B
@88magalhaes 对，我之前还觉得 $SIVE 两年内能到 100 亿美元……但也许明年就真的有可能了？ 市场通常会提前 12 个月定价，所以如果 2028 年有巨大的量产爬坡预期，那么 2027 年就有可能先反映出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@88magalhaes Yeah I thought $SIVE could reach $10B in 2 years time... but maybe by next year it's a real possibility now? Markets usually look forward 12M, so if there's massive 2028 volume ramp projections, it's a possibility in 2027.
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Win Semi 去风险 SIVE 扩产
@JerryOBrie16396 Win Semi 负责 $SIVE 的量产爬坡。 而 Win 早就是 $AVGO 和 SpaceX 供应链里一个很大的、成熟的代工厂，所以这部分扩产已经去风险了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JerryOBrie16396 Win Semi handles volume ramp for $SIVE. And Win is a massive established foundry for $AVGO and SpaceX supply chains already. So that scaling is de-risked.
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AMD 进军 CPO 对 SIVE 很利好
什么疯狂时间线？ 今天，$AMD 宣布要进入 CPO，并和 $GFS 合作。 这对 $SIVE 非常利好，因为 CPO / SiPH 需要外部激光光源。 而且……猜猜 GlobalFoundries CPO 生态里那两家公开激光供应商是谁？ $SIVE（大约 9.35 亿美元）和 $LITE（大约 640 亿美元） Sivers 的激光现在看起来真的可能会出现在未来所有超大规模云厂商的 CPO / 1.6T 部署里。 所以……如果 Sivers 能拿下为 $AMD Instinct MI500 的 CPO 方案提供激光阵列的位置。 （这看起来很有可能，因为目前列出的激光名字只有三个，而且超大规模云厂商喜欢多来源） 这可能意味着 Sivers 会迎来市场还没定价进去的大规模高量产。
原推 ↗英文原文
What a crazy timeline? Today, $AMD announced it's pushing into CPO and collaborating with $GFS. This is highly bullish for $SIVE since for CPO/SiPH, it requires external laser light source. And... guess who are the two public laser suppliers in the GlobalFoundries CPO ecosystem? $SIVE (~$935m) and $LITE (~$64 billion) Sivers lasers feel like they could be everywhere now in upcoming hyperscaler CPO/1.6T deployments. So... if Sivers secures the spot to provide the laser arrays for the $AMD Instinct MI500's CPO solution in 2027. (Which seems highly possible given there’s only three laser names listed + hyperscalers like to multi-source) This might represent massive, high volume production for Sivers that markets haven't pricing in.
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不要只看 meme 标签
就在一个月前，记者和媒体还在淡化我对 $SOI 和 $RPI 的 thesis。 他们引用我的 WSB 标签，把它说成是“注定要崩的 meme 股”，却没有分析底层 thesis。 结果这两只都涨了 100%，而且把涨幅守住了。 $SIVE 现在也是同样的情况。 我从来不靠权威说话……但既然他们想走这条路： 我就很好奇……他们的叙事里为什么总把我在 Nature 之类的地方发表过、被引用上千次的基础 AI 论文背景漏掉？ 又或者为什么今天 X 上那些看多 $SIVE 的分析师里，有些人是 UC Berkeley 的 Ph.D.，而且本身就在光子学领域发文？ 反而总是英语系或非技术背景的毕业生跑去媒体上，对 CPO 超大规模云厂商认证周期和供应链映射发表最强硬的意见。 我总觉得机构最不喜欢的，就是散户投资者在 X 上真的懂自己在说什么。 一个 thesis 应该靠本身的价值生死，而不是发言人是什么权威。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just 1 month ago, journalists and media tried downplaying my $SOI and $RPI thesis. As “meme stocks that were set to crash” citing my WSB tag without analyzing the underlying thesis. They’re both up 100% and held their gains. Same is happening to companies like $SIVE. I never argue from authority… but since they’re going that route: I’m curious why… in their narratives they just leave out the fact I published fundamental AI papers in places like Nature with thousands of citations? Other the fact other analysts on X positive about $SIVE today have Ph.Ds from places like UC Berkeley and publish in the photonics space? It’s always the English or non-technical graduates that go out in the media and have the strongest opinion about CPO hyperscaler qualification cycles and supply chain mapping. It just feels like institutions hate it when a retail investors on X know what they’re talking about. A thesis should live and die based on merit, not the authority of who is comes from.
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GFS 光子/CPO 生态名单
Global Foundries 的光子 / CPO 生态名单： 1. $GFS - 305 亿美元 2. $CDNS - 859 亿美元 3. $SEIGY - 2172 亿美元 4. $SNPS - 840 亿美元 5. $KEYS - 573 亿美元 6. $ATEYY - 1304 亿美元 7. RoboTechnik（ficonTEC）- 114 亿美元 8. $GLW - 1412 亿美元 9. $LITE - 638 亿美元 10. $SIVE - 9.5 亿美元 11. $FN - 247 亿美元 12. $ASX - 633 亿美元 这些都是公开交易的名字。 按他们的演示材料做一个等权做多这个生态，可能也不是个坏主意？ 我还是觉得好笑，所有上市公司都在几十亿美元到几百亿美元市值，而这里却夹着一家小小的瑞典激光公司，和 $LITE 并排出现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Global Foundries photonics/CPO ecosystem list: 1. $GFS - $30.5B 2. $CDNS - $85.9B 3. $SEIGY - $217.2B 4. $SNPS - $84B 5. $KEYS - $57.3B 6. $ATEYY - $130.4B 7. RoboTechnik (ficonTEC) - $11.4B 8. $GLW - $141.2B 9. $LITE - $63.8B 10. $SIVE - $950m 11. $FN - $24.7B 12. $ASX - $63.3B For publicly traded names. Equal weighted long on the ecosystem from their presentation might not be a bad idea? I still find it funny how everything publicly listed is trading in the tens of billions. Then there's some small Swedish laser company there next to $LITE.
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原始来源在这
@itsakek 原始来源在这！不过我还是觉得市场还没有把 $GFS + $SIVE 这两个加起来看明白。 https://t.co/llafVFO46B
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsakek Original source was here! But still don't think markets put 1+1 together with $GFS + $SIVE yet. https://t.co/llafVFO46B
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GFS 首次直接确认 SIVE
$GFS 是不是第一次直接确认了 $SIVE…… 作为他们 CPO / 光子生态的激光供应商？ 这次是明确的激光架构纳入，而不是之前和 Ayar / Celestial 那种供应链映射。 你还能从这里看到一些其他主要玩家： - $FN / $ASX 负责组装 - $LITE / $SIVE 负责激光 - $ATEYY / $KEYS 负责测试。 目前还没有基于文字的新闻，因为这来自 $GFS 2026 年 3 月的网络研讨会图像式演示。 但在 $LITE 旁边那份很小的激光供应商名单里，竟然有一家市值不到 10 亿美元的公司…… 这确实很特别，对吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
Did $GFS give the first direct confirmation about $SIVE... As the laser supplier for their CPO / photonics ecosystem? This is explicit laser architectural inclusion vs. previous supply chain mapping with Ayar/Celestial. You get a hint of the other major players here: - $FN / $ASX for assembly - $LITE / $SIVE for lasers - $ATEYY / $KEYS for testing. There's no text-based news yet, since this was the $GFS March 2026 webinar image-based presentation. But having a <$1B company on the tiny list of laser providers next to $LITE... Quite special right?
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欧洲半导体也在起飞
哇……欧洲股票也在起飞。 $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% 当像 Soitec 这种 40 多亿美元市值的公司一天涨 10%+，这大概率就是机构买盘，像 IQE 和 Point72 那样。 https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah... European stocks go brrr. $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% When $4B+ MC companies like Soitec go up 10%+ a day, this is likely institutional buying as seen with IQE and Point72. https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
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GOOGL ASIC 新闻对 SIVE 不够计价
我很惊讶 $SIVE 没有因为 $GOOGL 和 Marvell 的 ASIC 新闻而涨得更高。 甚至连 $MRVL 隔夜都涨了 6.24%+。 市场大概还不知道上游激光源到底来自哪里，对吧？ https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
原推 ↗英文原文
Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet? https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
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SIVE 供应链里很多都很强
我一直在告诉大家…… $SIVE 供应链里有很多东西都很有吸引力，适合做多。 Win Semi（3105）一天涨 10%，然后涨停。 虽然它们显然是为 $AVGO 或 SpaceX 供货，但光子学爬坡是由 $NVDA 领头，随后是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT。 这会让光子学成为 Win 的一个巨大增长引擎。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm telling you all... Lot of stuff in the $SIVE supply chains make very compelling longs. Win Semi (3105) just goes up 10% a day then halts trading after hitting its max. Obviously they do things for $AVGO or SpaceX, but photonics ramp spearheaded by $NVDA and followed by $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT Would make photonics a massive growth vector for Win.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
原推 ↗英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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称$700M流入AI供应链股票，建议用基本面分析等待市值兑现。
哪有什么回调——$700M正流入$JBL、J($MRVL)、Ayar、O-Net和其他供应链。人们也忘了$SIVE是芯片法案(CHIPS Act)的受益者，后续很可能还有更多跟进。最好基于前瞻增长做基本面分析来推导市值(MC)，然后等待逻辑兑现，而不是盯着K线图。
原推 ↗英文原文
What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains? People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups. Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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SIVE 下一站像 LITE
谢谢，我之前确实说过 $SIVE 看起来像下一个 $LITE！ 去年我因为 Google TPU 看好 Lumentum，而市场通常会更喜欢 Google 生态而不是 Amazon 生态。 但如果 Apple 在 CPO 上放量，市场会重新认识这整条线。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, I did say $SIVE looked like the next $LITE! I went long on Lumentum last year because of the Google TPU and markets tend to like Google's ecosystem a bit more than $AMZN or $MSFT. Of course, a lot can happen in the next 2 years so this is speculative but likely supply chain mapping, we'll find out what happens.
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Marvell与Google洽谈TPU开发，Sivers有望成为光子光源供应商
$MRVL正在洽谈为$GOOGL开发TPU（张量处理单元），涵盖两种不同的芯片型号。 如果谈判顺利，$SIVE很可能成为Google供应链的光源供应商。 尤其因为其定制ASIC（专用集成电路）可能推动Celestial IP在MPU（微处理器单元）架构中实现规模扩展（光子结构，Photonic Fabric）。这与$POET和Sivers两家公司的布局都相吻合。 定制ASIC需要数年时间，因此来自Google的实质性营收可能要等到2028年下半年。 供应商可能采用多元采购策略，但拥有Google作为潜在终端客户是一个超越2028年的结构性多年催化剂。 市场通常具有前瞻性。
原推 ↗英文原文
$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models. High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well. Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers. Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028. Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028. Markets are typically forward looking.
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原始 thesis 帖的反讽
还有件事挺好笑的： “如果你把 1 万美元投进 ____，今天会变成 ____！” 结果那些全都是我最早发 thesis 帖的股票，从 $AXTI 到 $IQE。 再等 6 个月，你大概又会在 $SIVE 和我其他关于卡点的 thesis 帖里看到同样的情况。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s still funny that there’s so many: “If you invested $10K into ____ you would have ____ today!” Then they’re all the stocks I was the original thesis poster on from $AXTI to $IQE. Wait 6 months and you’ll probably see the same thing with $SIVE and my other bottleneck thesis posts.
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认证周期不能短线拆解
@crux_capital_ 如果你觉得能在很短时间内把 $POET 从 Celestial 2028 的量产爬坡里设计掉，那你就是没理解认证周期。 $SIVE 和 $POET 也是一样，但我预计这些关系大多会随着时间变成多来源结构。
原推 ↗英文原文
@crux_capital_ That’s misunderstanding qualification cycles if you think they can design out $POET in a short timeframe for celestial 2028 volume ramp. Same with $SIVE and $POET but I expect most relationships to be multi source over time
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SIVE 仍然非常早期
@FamineRE $SIVE 现在还非常早期，如果一切条件都对齐，再看管理层有多激进，我觉得两年内有很清晰的 100 亿美元以上路径。
原推 ↗英文原文
@FamineRE $SIVE is extremely early and I see a clear path to $10B+ in 2 years if the stars align + depending how ambitious management is
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
原推 ↗英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking
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13.5M 融资降低稀释担忧
对，$SIVE 刚从欧洲养老基金和西方机构那里融资了 1350 万美元，换来 2.5% 的股份。 然后 Win Semi 又把量产去风险了。最近这次融资也进一步缓解了稀释和资产负债表的担忧。 现在就是等规模起来。 主要担心还是激光的多来源，而不是资产负债表或执行问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah? $SIVE just raised $13.5M from European pension funds and Western institutions for 2.5%. Then Win Semi derisked volume. Recent fundraiser derisked more dilution fears/balance sheet fears. It’s just waiting for scale now. Main concern is laser multi-sourcing, not balance sheet/execution.
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市场更爱确证型证据
@Gubloinvestor 我的意思是，谁都可以通过 AlChip、Marvell 之类把它映射到 Amazon，或者映射到 Microsoft，对吧？ 但市场有时候更喜欢一些更具体的“证据”，比如来自 $AMZN 的 photonic fabric 采购协议，而它又能映射回 $SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Gubloinvestor I mean anyone can just map it to Amazon through AlChip, Marvell, etc? Or Microsoft? But sometimes markets like more concrete“proof” like photonic fabric purchase agreements from $AMZN that maps to $SIVE
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SIVE 的终端用户是谁
以防你还在想 $SIVE 的终端用户到底是谁： Sivers 激光 -> $AMZN（Marvell 的 8-K SEC 文件里有） Amazon 和 Celestial 之间有 “photonic fabric” 的采购协议，而这条链通过两跳关系映射到 Sivers 激光。 协议里 Marvell 的股份价值按 87 美元/股算，所以 Amazon 有很强的动力尽可能多买（Marvell 现在股价已经 139 美元以上了）。 这些量产订单对 $SIVE 最有帮助，因为他们体量小。 我只是想指出这一条关系。 但在 7.2 亿美元市值下…… 市场显然漏掉了 Sivers 作为未来超大规模云光学超级周期里关键激光供应商的角色。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in case you were wondering who the end users of $SIVE likely were: Sivers lasers -> $AMZN (Marvell's 8-K SEC filings). Amazon has purchase agreements for "photonic fabric" from Celestial, which maps to Sivers lasers through two-hop connections. Marvell's share value under the agreement was $87/share, so Amazon is very incentivized to buy as much as they can (Marvell is trading at $139+). These volume orders help $SIVE the most out of this supply chain, given their size. This is just one-relation to Amazon, I wanted to point out. But at $720m MC... Markets missed Sivers as the critical laser supplier for the upcoming hyperscaler optical supercycle based on new architectural changes.
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700M 市值的 MRVL/JBL 激光供应商很少见
当然会了？你什么时候见过一家具备 $MRVL 和 $JBL 激光供应商地位的公司，市值才 7 亿美元？ 其他激光公司，比如 $MTSI 和 $LITE，现在都在几十亿美元市值区间，而 $SIVE 只有大约 7.2 亿美元。 至于 $ALRIB，既是 $MSFT Quantum 的供应商，又是 $IQE / Fujitsu 量子点业务的供应商，市值只有 3.5 亿美元，这也极其罕见。 你得知道自己持有什么，这样就不用问这种问题了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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那些名字挺不错
@GJL75 😆 看到我提到的那些名字，比如 $IQE 或 $SIVE，挺有意思的！ 还不错！
原推 ↗英文原文
@GJL75 😆 it’s fun to see all the names I mentioned like $IQE or $SIVE! Not bad!
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认为 SIVE 今天市值大约 20 亿美元。
@KobeKapital 我觉得 $SIVE 今天大概是一家 20 亿美元市值的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KobeKapital I think $SIVE is a $2B company today
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回顾自己在 WSB 被封和多只名字被骂空的经历。
一个有意思的事实：我在 WSB 子版块里因为 $AXTI 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元以上而被封了，原因是版主气得不行，因为它一直涨，而且后来证明我是对的。 像 $RPI 这种名字因为“meme stock”叙事被无休止地攻击，连 FT 和新闻媒体都这样……但最后还是翻倍了。 $SOI 之类的名字也被无穷无尽地骂成拉盘砸盘。 $SIVE 之类的名字也被无休止地攻击，带着一堆瑞典式的酸味。 $AEHR 之类的也一样。 还有 $SOI，也一直被人喷成“肯定别人比我先建仓了”。 我也不知道……只要你是第一个发现的人，就会招来一大堆仇恨评论。等它变成 50-100 亿美元市值、涨了 1000%+ 之后，大家才会说“哦，原来可以做多啊”。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact I got banned on WSB subreddit after $AXTI went from $12 to $80+ because Mods got mad it kept going up and played out correctly. Names like $RPI got endless harassment over "meme stock" narratives. Including FT and news media... but it ended up doubling anyway. Names like $SOI, endless pump and dump harassment. Names like $SIVE, endless Swedish salt harassment. Names like $AEHR, endless harassment. Names like $SOI, endless harassment thinking someone else went long before I did. Idk... whenever you're first to something, it's just a ton of hate comments. And only after it's a $5-10B+ company after going up 1000%+ is it "okay" to go long.
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原本想要 50%，结果市场给了 95%。
@ehaibag 我本来还希望能有 50%……结果市场大概会在 1 周内给 $SIVE 95% 的涨幅。 https://t.co/PcRGZXq20F
原推 ↗英文原文
@ehaibag I was hoping for 50%… but guess markets will settle on 95% in 1 week with $SIVE https://t.co/PcRGZXq20F
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高确信看好 SIVE，NASDAQL 上市在即。
@jonnylee47 我对 $SIVE 的信心很高，尤其是现在这个价位。 你很少会看到 $JBL 或 $MRVL 的激光供应商只值 7 亿美元。再加上很快就会在 NASDAQ 上市，美国机构资金会进来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jonnylee47 High conviction on $SIVE, especially at current levels. You don't see the laser supplier of $JBL or $MRVL sitting at $700m every day. Also it helps there's NASDAQ listing for US institutional inflows soon.
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建议看下一轮光子周期，不必畏惧已涨多的名字。
如果你对像 $LITE 这种已经涨了很多的名字感到不舒服，你可以去看看下一轮光子周期的曝光。 像鸿海光学封装业务 Shunsin 这种我真的很喜欢……或者 $SIVE 这种 1.6T / CPO 激光，即使在现在这个价位也是。 $SOI 也还有很多空间。 分几天做成本均摊也没坏处。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're uncomfortable with names that already went up a lot like $LITE, you can try for exposure in the next optical cycle. Stuff like Shunsin for Foxconn's optical packaging arm i genuinely really liked... or $SIVE for 1.6T/CPO lasers, even at current levels. $SOI still has a lot of room to go. Doesn't hurt to cost average over multiple days.
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说 IQE 可能很快会超过 AXTI 的传奇 thesis。
我对 $IQE 的判断……可能很快就会超过我那篇传奇的 $AXTI thesis？ 才过了 2 个月： 现在在机构开始公开买入后，涨幅已经超过 +316%，而且还在继续涨。 欧洲那边像 $ALRIB、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这种关键瓶颈股最近也很有意思。 我觉得它们从现在开始大概率还会再复合出三位数涨幅，即使已经涨了一大截。 散户这还是第一次这么早。 所以，预计很快会有大量机构资金涌入这些关键供应链公司，尤其是 $SIVE，等 NASDAQ 上市之后。
原推 ↗英文原文
My $IQE call… might actually outperform my legendary $AXTI thesis soon? It’s only been 2 months: Now it's up over +316% after institutions started publicly buying… and keeps going up. Fun time for critical chokepoints like $ALRIB, $SIVE, and $SOI recently in Europe. Probably expect them all to compound another triple digits from here, even after all their rallies. Retail is just extremely early for the first time. So, expect a lot of institutional capital to pour into these critical supply chains companies soon, especially $SIVE after Nasdaq listing.
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说 SIVE 正在走向 LITE 路径，且有多重利好。
$SIVE 正在走向变成 $LITE 的路上。 过去两天里： > $JBL 确认使用 $SIVE 激光用于他们的 1.6T 光学收发器 > Sivers 从长期机构投资者（比如养老基金 / 机构投资者）那里融资 1350 万美元以上，降低了资产负债表风险 > $SIVE 计划在美国 NASDAQ 上市。 这走势也太疯狂了。 我还是觉得短期内它会冲到 20 亿美元以上市值。 尤其是随着股票从瑞典本地投资者转向真正懂 photonics 的西方基金 / 投资者。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is on its journey to be $LITE . In the last 2 days: > $JBL confirmation of using $SIVE lasers for their 1.6T optical transceivers > Sivers raises $13.5M+ from long term institutional investors (eg. pension funds/institutional investors), de-risking balance sheet issues > $SIVE plans to list on US NASDAQ. What a crazy turn of events? I still think it's heading to $2B+ MC in the near term. Especially as shares transfer from local Swedish investors to Western funds/investors who understand what’s up and coming with photonics.
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看好 SIVE 与 Win Semi 受益于激光量产周期。
这正是我做多 $SIVE 激光生态加 Win Semi（3105）的原因。 下一轮激光大规模量产的架构超级周期，受益者是谁？ Sivers + Win。 尤其是昨天宣布 Sivers 正在为 $JBL 的 1.6T 光学收发器供货之后。 https://t.co/05wYF3fR0U
原推 ↗英文原文
This is exactly why I long the $SIVE laser ecosystem with Win Semi (3105). The beneficiaries of the next architectural supercycle for laser mass production? Sivers + Win. Especially with the announcement yesterday that Sivers is powering $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. https://t.co/05wYF3fR0U
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强调 SIVE 今天有融资和纳斯达克上市双重利好。
@PolarizingLit 很多人忽略了今天 $SIVE 的双重公告： 1. 他们从长期机构投资者那里融资了大约 1300 万美元以上，所以不再有资产负债表担忧。 2. 他们还在推进美国 NASDAQ 上市。 50% 的跳空上涨其实低估了这条消息。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PolarizingLit People miss that it was a DUAL announcement too today with $SIVE: 1. They raised ~$13M+ from long term institutional investors (so no more balance sheet concerns). 2. Then they're pursuing US NASDAQ listing too. 50% gap up is undervaluing the news.
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说 SIVE 融资很小但极其利好，且大概率用于上市。
是的，$SIVE 从一批机构投资者那里融资了约 1365 万美元，这非常利多。对流通盘来说占比也很小，大约只有 2.5%。 而且这笔钱大概率是为了 NASDAQ 上市（极度正面）。 极度正面 + 极度正面 = 对管理层执行力的高信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah $SIVE raised ~$13.65M from a bunch of institutional investors, which is strongly bullish. For such a tiny portion of the float ~2.5% too. And it's likely used for NASDAQ listing (extremely positive). Extremely positive + Extremely positive = high conviction in management execution.
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极度看好 SIVE，认为其很快会升至 20 亿市值。
我对 $SIVE 的信心真的太高了，天啊。你现在手里有 $JBL、$MRVL 的激光供应商，市值只有 6 亿美元。 他们又要在 NASDAQ 上市，让所有机构投资者都终于能进场。 而这次融资稀释才 2.5%…… 这执行力和管理层真的太强了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I just have such high conviction on $SIVE, holy ****. You have the laser supplier for $JBL, $MRVL: at $600m. They're getting listed on NASDAQ where all the institutional investors can finally enter. And their dilution to do this? 2.5%... That's just amazing execution and management.
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认为 SIVE 轻松能再涨 10 倍。
@Ren_aramb 是啊，我觉得 $SIVE 从现在这个位置轻松能再涨 10 倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ren_aramb Yeah, I can see $SIVE easily 10xing from current levels.
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说 SIVE 的纳斯达克上市会非常夸张。
@labubu_trader 对，$SIVE 的 NASDAQ 上市会非常离谱。
原推 ↗英文原文
@labubu_trader Yeah $SIVE NASDAQ listing is going to be absolutely unholy.
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强调 SIVE 正在推进纳斯达克上市，像下一只 LITE。
$SIVE 正在推进美国 NASDAQ 上市，路透已经报了。 欢迎来到美国，Sivers。 我之前说过，基于今天的基本面，Sivers 现在看起来很快就应该值 20 亿美元以上。 而且一旦在 NASDAQ 上市，美国机构很可能会开始涌入这家给 $MRVL 和 $JBL 供货的激光供应商。 这发生在今天一轮非常利好的 2.5% 融资之后，融资对象是新的“国际机构投资者”，大概率是为了支付上市所需的监管 / 审计成本。 “参与定向配股的投资者包括少数瑞典和国际机构投资者及其他合格投资者。” 我们大概率会看到消息推动的近乎抛物线式上涨。 仅仅过去三天： -> $JBL 1.6T 使用 $SIVE -> $SIVE 新的美国 / 国际机构投资者 -> $SIVE 看起来要在 NASDAQ 上市。 我们正在见证下一只 $LITE 的诞生。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE executing US NASDAQ listing from Reuters. Welcome to America Sivers. I said Sivers looks like it should be valued at $2B+ soon based on today's fundamentals. And US institutions will likely be piling into the laser supplier for $MRVL and $JBL once it's on NASDAQ. This comes after a highly bullish 2.5% raise today from new "international institutional investors" to likely fund regulatory/audit requirements for the listing. "The investors in the Directed Share Issue comprise of a limited number of Swedish and international institutional and other qualified investors" We’ll likely going to see a parabolic ride up from the news. In just the last three days: -> $JBL 1.6T to use $SIVE -> $SIVE new US/international institutional investors -> $SIVE looks to be listed on NASDAQ. We're witnessing the birth of the next $LITE.
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强调供应链映射前瞻性远胜基本面回看。
不，他们的基本面并不一样。这就是大多数散户不理解、也最让人沮丧的地方。 $SIVE 真的拿到了 $JBL 这个 hyperscaler 客户，O-Net 也在服务亚洲 hyperscaler。 然后 $MRVL 从 $NVDA 拿到了 20 亿美元，还给出了 Celestial CPO 放量的指引（这会传导到 $SIVE）。 $POET 也给了指引，并表示下半年会开始放量交付，比预期更早。 ASE 甚至直接预计 2026 年下半年 CPO 放量，远早于预期。 所以如果我们把激光环节的未来盈利增长往前映射，它应该会加速很多。 市场定价的是未来增长，不是回头看 2025 年的基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, they didn't have the same fundamentals. This is what majority of retail investors don't understand and it's so frustrating. $SIVE literally landed $JBL as a hyperscaler client, and O-Net which serves Asian hyperscalers. Then $MRVL ended up getting $2B from $NVDA and gave projections on their Celestial CPO ramp (which trickles down to $SIVE). $POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected. ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected. So if we map forward earnings growth from lasers, it should accelerate a lot. Markets price in future growth, not backward 2025 fundamentals.
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作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
原推 ↗英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
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批评欧洲投资者在底部卖出本土优质公司股票，错失大涨后被美国投资者接盘的现象。
纯粹出于好奇。为什么欧洲人讨厌自己国家的市场？如果看看我所有的核心长仓股票：$IQE今年迄今上涨837%，$SIVE上涨385%，$ALRIB上涨258%，$SOI上涨208%，$RPI上涨107%。当地分析师和记者不断释放负面情绪。但这些公司都是各自国家的国家安全瑰宝（除了树莓派Raspberry Pi）。当地人最终都在底部卖出所有股票，然后股票就转移到美国投资者和机构手中。然后他们就享受不到任何上涨红利。如果像Riber这样的公司被$MSFT用于量子领域，并以26倍市盈率交易，在美国估值会超过16亿美元，就像$LWLG一样。但如果这类公司有任何估值溢价，人们就会酸溜溜的。我见过的对外资最感激的群体是日本人，大多数人都非常欢迎。我认为欧洲人应该为自己领先的前沿公司感到骄傲，因为它们正在受益于西方资本。这样它们才能扩大产能，满足美国超大规模云服务商的需求？这对公司、本地经济都是正和效应。这种落后的思维模式现象需要改变。
原推 ↗英文原文
Out of curiosity. Why do Europeans hate their own markets? If you look at all my core longs: $IQE up 837% YTD $SIVE up 385% YTD $ALRIB up 258% YTD $SOI up 208% YTD $RPI up 107% YTD It’s just endless salt coming from local analysts and reporters. But they’re the national security gems in each country (aside from Raspberry Pi). Locals end up selling all their shares at the bottom, then it just transferred to American investors and institutions. Then they don’t get any of the upside. If a company like Riber is used by $MSFT quantum and traded at a 26 p/e, it would be $1.6B+ in the US like $LWLG. But people are salty if it has a valuation premium at all. The only appreciative community for foreign capital I’ve seen are Japanese, and most have been incredibly welcoming. I feel like Europeans should be proud their leading frontier companies, are benefiting from Western capital. So they can scale up production needed for American hyperscalers? It’s a positive sum effect on the company, and the local economies as well. This backward mindset phenomenon needs to change.
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认为 SIVE 两年后到 100 亿以上是可能的。
@doubledoruk 很高兴听到！我觉得 $SIVE 还有很长的路要走，两年后到 100 亿美元以上市值是真的可能的。 如果公司把牌打好，因为它掌握着激光供应链中的关键一环。
原推 ↗英文原文
@doubledoruk Glad to hear! I think $SIVE has a long way to go, $10B+ in 2 years time is genuinely possible. If the company plays their cards right since they own a critical part of the laser supply chain.
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认为 SIVE 的 2B 估值判断是真的。
我真的不是随口说说我认为 $SIVE 今天能值 20 亿美元。 你什么时候还能找到一家对 $MRVL、$JBL 和 hyperscaler 供应链都至关重要的激光供应商…… 而市值只有 6.2 亿美元？ 找不到……因为世界上本来就没几家。 而在 hyperscaler 供应链里，像 $LITE 到 $MTSI 这些名字都已经是几十亿美元市值了……
原推 ↗英文原文
I really meant it when I thought $SIVE could be valued at $2B today. When do you ever find a critical laser supplier to $MRVL, $JBL, and Hyperscaler supply chains... At $620m MC? You can't... Since there's only a few in the world. And the rest in hyperscaler supply chains from $LITE to $MTSI are in the tens of billions...
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博主认为$SIVE股票长期上涨才刚开始，感谢粉丝支持。
@sunnyviljamaa 听到这些我真的很开心，也让我觉得继续分享我的想法是有意义的。我仍然认为这只是$SIVE在未来几年上涨的刚刚开始。我希望你的叔叔也能认可你的付出，因为你一直在X上阅读深度分析(DD)！
原推 ↗英文原文
@sunnyviljamaa That makes me really happy to hear and makes it fulfilling to keep sharing my thoughts. I still think this is the very beginning of $SIVE's run over the next few years. I hope your Uncle is appreciative of your efforts too since you've been reading DD on X!
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看好 SIVE 成为 100 亿美元级激光公司。
@CryptoGuru365 我觉得 $SIVE 有潜力成为像 $MTSI 或 $LITE 那样的 100 亿美元以上激光公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@CryptoGuru365 I think $SIVE has the potential to be a $10B+ laser company like $MTSI or $LITE
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Sivers成为JBL光学收发器激光光源供应商，证实进入超大规模业者供应链。
Sivers Photonics ($SIVE) 是下一个 $LITE，市值5.6亿美元。机构投资者今天得到了完整确认：Sivers 现已成为超大规模业者(hyperscaler)供应链中的光源(light source)，并直接向 $JBL 供应光学收发器(optical transceivers)。这只是时间问题。 官方消息：$JBL 将使用 $SIVE 的激光器用于光学收发器。今天的消息："Jabil 计划开发一款1.6T线性接收光学(LRO)收发器模块，使用 Sivers 的高性能分布反馈(DFB)激光器"。Jabil Photonics 表示："与 Sivers 合作将使我们能够提供满足数据中心性能及功耗目标的大规模1.6T LRO解决方案"。 你是否见过哪个光源(light source)进入超大规模业者供应链...市值只有5亿美元？我们此前在 OFC 展会上从物理渠道获得过暗示，但许多机构投资者需要类似这样的实际确认。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is the next $LITE at $560m MC. Institutions just got full confirmation today: Sivers is now the light source in hyperscaler supply chains and the direct supplier of $JBL optical transceivers. It’s only a matter of time. https://t.co/Eh9GherJTV
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强调 JBL 的规模会放大 SIVE 的影响。
@StormDirac 没错。$JBL 体量巨大，尤其是在它更早收购了 $INTC 的 SiPH 部门之后。 我真的不觉得市场已经意识到 $SIVE 接下来会发生什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StormDirac Exactly. $JBL is massive, especially after buying $INTC's SiPH division earlier. I genuinely don't think markets realize coming yet with $SIVE.
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把 SIVE 与 JBL 的供货关系视作结构性转变。
这终于算是 $SIVE 的供应链映射验证了。 $JBL 真的******巨大，而 Sivers 激光现在大概率会进入 Jabil 的 hyperscaler 客户，比如 $AMZN、$GOOGL。 这是一个非常结构性的变化，如果官方确认下来，我个人会把 Sivers 估到 20 亿美元以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is finally supply chain mapping validation with $SIVE. $JBL is ****** massive and Sivers lasers now will likely go into Jabil's hyperscalers clients like $AMZN, $GOOGL. This is such a structural change and I would personally value Sivers over $2B+ after official confirmation.
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官方确认 JBL 将使用 SIVE 激光。
官方确认：$JBL 将为他们的光学收发器使用 $SIVE 激光。 今天的消息： “Jabil 计划使用 Sivers 的高性能分布反馈（DFB）激光，开发 1.6T 线性接收光学（LRO）收发器模块。” Jabil Photonics： “与 Sivers 合作将使我们能够大规模交付满足数据中心性能和功耗目标的 1.6T LRO 方案。” 你在哪儿见过 hyperscaler 供应链里的‘光源’…… 而且还是在 5 亿美元市值下？ 我们之前在 OFC 物理渠道里已经听到过暗示，但很多机构需要这样的正式确认。
原推 ↗英文原文
IT'S OFFICIAL: $JBL to use $SIVE Lasers for their optical transceivers. Today: "Jabil plans to develop a 1.6T linear receive optical (LRO) transceiver module using Sivers’ high-performance Distributed Feedback (DFB) lasers" Jabil Photonics: :Working with Sivers will allow us to deliver a 1.6T LRO solution that meets both data center performance and power targets at scale" Where have you seen the LIGHT SOURCE for hyperscaler supply chains... At a $500m MC? We had this hinted from physical sources at OFC, but many institutions needed actual confirmation like this.
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Soitec 反弹后继续看好 CPO/硅光主线。
自从我发出 TLDR 版 thesis 后，Soitec 现在一个月涨了 64%。 很多人在我发帖后又因为伊朗 / 宏观回调，把 $SOI 说成“没有基本面的 meme 股”。 但我的多头，尤其是像 $SIVE 这类会延伸到 2029 年的 CPO / Silicon Photonics 相关标的…… 有时候就是需要时间兑现？ 它在衬底层面是真正的垄断，而且它那些旧业务拖累板块也很可能正在见底。
原推 ↗英文原文
Soitec is now up 64% in 1 month since my TLDR thesis post. Lot of people made fun of $SOI as a “no fundamentals meme stock” when it corrected after I posted (because of Iran/macro). But my longs, especially with CPO/Silicon Photonics related stuff like $SIVE that scales into 2029. Sometimes just need time to play out? It’s a genuine monopoly in the substrate layer and it’s likely bottoming in their legacy drag segments.
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感谢对方帮读者了解 SIVE 和 photonics。
@StormDirac 谢谢你帮读者了解 $SIVE 和 photonics 这条线。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StormDirac Thanks for educating the readers about $SIVE and the photonics landscape
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说自己最近 thesis 的一堆名字都跑赢大盘。
它们还在那儿。 只是现在已经很难说什么了…… 当我最近写出来的 thesis，像 $HPS.A、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE、$NBIS、Win、Shunsin、$AEHR、$TSEM、$SOI 以及更多很多很多我提到的名字…… 都就是在持续跑赢市场。 年内 +1,116.29% 还不算差，对吧 chat？
原推 ↗英文原文
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
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说自己和管理层聊过，SIVE 计划去美国上市。
@vancegson 我跟管理层聊过，$SIVE 计划在美国上市。
原推 ↗英文原文
@vancegson I’ve talked to management US listing is planned on $SIVE
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说美国上市会显著抬升 SIVE 估值。
@sbloom134 在美国市场 uplisting 应该会让它估值提高不少，因为相当一部分美国机构没法直接买瑞典市场或 OTC。
原推 ↗英文原文
@sbloom134 Uplisting in US markets should increase its valuation by quite a bit since a decent amount of US institutions can’t access Swedish markets or OTC.
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认为 SIVE 若是美股会值 20 亿以上，并有清晰上行路径。
我其实觉得如果 $SIVE 作为美国公司挂牌，今天就应该交易在 20 亿美元以上市值……而不是等到今年晚些时候。 因为我不太明白： - $LWLG 为什么会交易到 3.5 倍以上的估值 - 做自己激光器封装的公司，估值却只有它的 5-6 倍 - 像从 $MTSI 到 $LITE 这些激光公司，估值都在几十亿美元区间。 而 Sivers 又是通过 $MRVL、$JBL、O-Net 等进入 hyperscaler 供应链，而不是只依赖单一客户。 全球公开上市的 AI 数据中心激光公司其实也没多少。 所以它要么会成为 $AVGO 或 $MRVL 很想纵向整合上游的高优先级收购标的。 要么它可以走 $LITE 那种路线：从 17 美元涨到 800 美元，并通过 IP 收购把 ELS / optical transceiver stack 的下游 TAM 扩大。 当然，这取决于公司到底有多激进，但我就是觉得自从我发 thesis 后，没人真正注意到瑞典这个激光供应商。 可能只是需要给美国上市一点耐心，我几乎可以确定美国机构会像对 $IQE 那样感兴趣。 DD 周期通常在他们读完我的 thesis 后会持续几周，但我看得到未来几年从这里走到 100 亿美元以上市值的清晰路径。
原推 ↗英文原文
I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not later this year. Since I’m not sure how: - $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation - packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation. - laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions. And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer. There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either. So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream. Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions. Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post. Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE. DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.
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看好 SIVE 通过 ELS/transceiver TAM 扩张到 100 亿以上。
@Simipandaface CPO 会一路加速到 2029 年之后。放量甚至还没真正体现在财报里。 如果 $SIVE 把 ELS / transceiver stack 的 TAM 扩张做对，我觉得它从 4.4 亿美元起步，未来有一天真的能成为 100 亿美元以上的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Simipandaface CPO accelerates all the way past 2029. Volume ramp hasnt even hit the balance sheet yet. I think $SIVE could be a $10B+ company one day if they play their cards right from $440m if they TAM expansion down the ELS/transceiver stack.
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说 SIVE 近期开启美国重新上市路线。
@JustaMetaDude 对，看起来 $SIVE 近期开启美国重新上市的路线了。 这应该会释放很多资本，我真不明白 $LWLG 为什么能交易到 4 倍估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JustaMetaDude Yeah looks like re-listing in US is on near term roadmap for $SIVE. That should unlock a lot of capital, not sure how $LWLG trades at 4x the valuation
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看好$SIVE被机构买入，估值被低估，有望复制$LITE走势
对$SIVE非常有信心，因为会有机构投资者进来。 它是$MRVL、$JBL等公司的激光器供应商。 当它被设计进超大规模数据中心供应链、规模约4.3亿美元时，估值脱节完全说不通。 再看未来几年共封装光学(CPO)和1.6T收发器的增长，简直疯狂。 这看起来是下一个$LITE的开端，我认为机构投资者可能因为瑞典上市而参与较晚。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pretty confident about $SIVE regarding institutions coming in next. Laser supplier for $MRVL, $JBL, and a few others. Valuation disconnect makes no sense when they’re designed into hyperscaler supply chains at ~$430M. And you look at CPO and 1.6T transceiver ramp over next few years, it’s insanity. It looks like the start of the next $LITE over the next year, imo institutions probably late to the party due to Swedish listing.
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周 1 ETF 组合大涨，验证了精选跟随的回报。
Serenity 粉丝精选的“超球形 10 倍 ETF”表现。 第 1 周：+12.39% $AEHR：+56.72%（$45.08 -> $70.65） $AAOI：+39.63%（$108.86 -> $152.00） $SIVE：+35.35%（9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK） $ENAFF：+31.58%（$1.71 -> $2.25） $AL2SI：+25.44%（28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR） $ENVX：+21.30%（$5.07 -> $6.15） $BZAI：+18.99%（$1.79 -> $2.13） $POET：+16.04%（$6.11 -> $7.09） $WATT：+14.81%（$15.8 -> $18.14） $HGRAF：+14.48%（$4.49 -> $5.14） $VLN：+13.79%（$1.16 -> $1.32） $LPK.DE：+13.20%（6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR） $FLY：+13.09%（$33.16 -> $37.50） $VPG：+11.63%（$44.7 -> $49.90） $PLAB：+9.86%（$40.87 -> $44.90） $TRT：+8.33%（$5.88 -> $6.37） $EQR.AX：+7.94%（.315 AUD -> .34 AUD） $LASR：+7.92%（$60.7 -> $65.51） $ASPI：+6.67%（$4.2 -> $4.48） $P4O.DE：+5.69%（6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR） $EOS.AX：+3.11%（$9.00 -> $9.28） $ADUR：-0.29%（$10.37 -> $10.34） $MITK：-2.52%（$13.9 -> $13.55） $ALCJ：-3.41%（2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR） $TMC：-5.01%（$4.59 -> $4.36） $QURE：-9.94%（$17.21 -> $15.50） $EONR：-20.00%（$.9 -> $.72） Top 3: 1. $AEHR：+56.72% 2. $AAOI：+39.63% 3. $SIVE：+35.35% 值得一提的是 $ENAFF，回报 31.58%。 加权平均是 12.39%。 老实说还不错，大家只用一周就跑赢了年初到现在的指数回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Follower Picked Hyperbolic 10x ETF Performance. Week 1: +12.39% $AEHR: +56.72% ($45.08 -> $70.65) $AAOI: +39.63% ($108.86 -> $152.00) $SIVE: +35.35% (9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK) $ENAFF: +31.58% ($1.71 -> $2.25) $AL2SI: +25.44% (28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR) $ENVX: +21.30% ($5.07 -> $6.15) $BZAI: +18.99% ($1.79 -> $2.13) $POET: +16.04% ($6.11 -> $7.09) $WATT: +14.81% ($15.8 -> $18.14) $HGRAF: +14.48% ($4.49 -> $5.14) $VLN: +13.79% ($1.16 -> $1.32) $LPK.DE: +13.20% (6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR) $FLY: +13.09% ($33.16 -> $37.50) $VPG: +11.63% ($44.7 -> $49.90) $PLAB: +9.86% ($40.87 -> $44.90) $TRT: +8.33% ($5.88 -> $6.37) $EQR.AX: +7.94% (.315 AUD -> .34 AUD) $LASR: +7.92% ($60.7 -> $65.51) $ASPI: +6.67% ($4.2 -> $4.48) $P4O.DE: +5.69% (6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR) $EOS.AX: +3.11% ($9.00-> $9.28) $ADUR: -0.29% ($10.37 -> $10.34) $MITK: -2.52% ($13.9 -> $13.55) $ALCJ: -3.41% (2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR) $TMC: -5.01% ($4.59 -> $4.36) $QURE: -9.94% ($17.21 -> $15.50) $EONR: -20.00% ($.9 -> $.72) Top 3: 1. $AEHR: +56.72% 2. $AAOI: +39.63% 3. $SIVE: +35.35% Honorable mention $ENAFF with a 31.58% return. Weighted average was 12.39%. Honestly not bad everyone, you beat year index returns in just 1 week.
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回顾自己多次抢跑机构的 thesis 命中。
我不是早就告诉过你们，散户完全可以抢在机构前面吗，anon？？ -> 两个月后，Point72 正在高位猛烈买入 $IQE…… 在我那篇关于 latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE 供应商的 thesis 之后。 -> Apollo 真的把 NSG 买下来了，也就是我指出的 $TSM COUPE 玻璃供应商。 -> 我最近还找到了很多其他名字，比如 $SIVE，它是 $MRVL / $JBL 的激光供应商，而 Riber 是 $MSFT 的未知量子供应商（还借助了一位朋友）。 我就是喜欢把信息发现 / 综合整理民主化，先给散户，而不是卖给机构或者藏在 2 万美元以上的付费墙后面。 股票本来就是真正的正和游戏，散户这次终于能第一次领先。
原推 ↗英文原文
Didn’t I tell you all it’s possible retail can frontrun institutions anon?? -> Point72 is aggressively buying up $IQE 2 months later at ATHs... After my latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE supplier thesis post. -> Apollo literally bought out NSG, the $TSM COUPE glass provider I identified. -> And I've identified many others like $SIVE, the $MRVL / $JBL supplier to Riber the unknown quantum supplier to $MSFT (with the help of a friend) recently. I happen to like democratizing information discovery/synthesis to retail investors at the very beginning… Instead of selling analysis to institutions or behind $20000+ paywalls. Stocks are genuinely positive sum where retail can get the lead for the first time.
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说信息发现会吸引注意力，不是发帖的人。
我有这么强吗？ 我觉得大概只是信息综合与发现而已。要是我发一篇关于一家纸巾公司 8 倍市盈率的帖子，没人会在意。 但当 $SIVE 是 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的光源，市值只有大约 4 亿美元…… 而且只交易像 $LWLG 这种更投机名字估值的四分之一…… 而其他像 $MTSI 或 $LITE 之类做 CW DFB 的公司市值都在几十亿美元时…… 最后吸引大家注意力的，是信息本身，而不是发信息的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
am i that powerful? pretty sure it's just information synthesis + discovery. If I posted about a napkin company trading at 8 p/e, nobody would care. When $SIVE is the light source for $JBL and $MRVL at ~400m... and trades at like 1/4th the valuation of something more speculative like $LWLG. while all the other CW DFB companies like $MTSI or $LITE are all in the tens of billions. Information ends up drawing people's attention, not the person.
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认为英伟达正在强力推动 CPO，相关时间点比市场预期更早。
$NVDA 正在非常、非常强力地推动 CPO。 从 $MRVL、$LITE 和 $COHR 的投入就能看出来。 不过有意思的是，CPO 的时间表也比预期早得多。 最新报道： “$ASE 据称将在 2026 年动工建设六座新工厂，CPO 量产预计将于今年开始” “他还首次透露，CPO 的量产预计将在今年启动” 现在可能正是提前布局 CPO 相关标的的好时机，比如 $SIVE（激光器）、Win Semi（晶圆代工）、$TSEM（晶圆代工）、$SOI（衬底）以及其他相关公司，在真正放量前先埋伏。 需求曲线会一路指数级上升，直到 2029 年以后，我相信很多预测都会被打穿。 总之，我之前在 OFC/GTC 前就一直说要提前布局 CPO / SiPh 标的。 结果时间点上我又判断对了？ 现在看起来 CPO 的放量要从 2026 年下半年开始，准备好吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard. As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR. But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected. New report: " $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year " "He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year" Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up. The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections. But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC. Turned out I was right on timing again? CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
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认为 Sivers 早期被散户主导，但机构正在逐步接手。
有道理，$SIVE 一开始大多是散户持股，但遗憾的是，本地媒体可能因为没理解 Sivers 在未来 CPO 架构中的价值，把一部分人吓跑了。 国际投资者，尤其是美国机构，更能看懂。 大概率会先由一些精品机构进来，等 Sivers 的市值和上市要求达到门槛后，才会逐步转到更大型的机构手里。
原推 ↗英文原文
Makes sense, $SIVE started off as a majority retail owned stock, but unfortunately local media probably scared them off not understanding the value Sivers holds in upcoming CPO architectures. International audiences (especially US institutions) understands. Probably starts off with more boutique firms investing and once Sivers pass the MC + listing requirement, starts changing hands to larger institutions.
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回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
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称 Sivers 的激光业务被低估，是 Marvell 和 Jabil 的激光供应商。
@yy1625066197303 激光器就是在狂飙，基本上就是这样。我很喜欢 $SIVE 现在得到更多关注，感觉它作为 $MRVL、$JBL 的激光供应商被严重低估了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yy1625066197303 Lasers go brrr basically, love $SIVE is getting more attention, feels extremely underrated as the $MRVL, $JBL laser supplier
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回顾自己挖到 IQE 的大涨机会，并表示下一只 10 倍股候选还在验证。
我挖到 $IQE 这只票真的做得挺猛的？又是一个巨大的三位数收益。 今天上涨了 23%+。 我之前说过，下一个像 $AXTI 那样的 10 倍股，可能会是 $AAOI、$IQE 或 $SIVE 中的一个。 我们看看最后是谁赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
I cooked pretty hard finding $IQE? Another massive triple digit gain. Up 23%+ today. I said earlier that next $AXTI 10x would be either $AAOI, $IQE, or $SIVE. We'll see which one ends up winning. https://t.co/v8rAHL8Wjk
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分析光子学超级周期下的CPO/激光技术路线机遇，SIVE作为小市值激光标的具有独特供应链位置。
光子学“超级周期”有许多细微的架构变化。如果你在去年错过了$LITE，今年可以通过CPO/激光来抢先布局下一个周期。$SIVE是我相对小众的激光敞口标的。他们参与在$JBL的1.6T LRO、$MRVL的Celestial、O-Net到超大规模业者。这对于一家市值约3.5亿美元的公司来说极为罕见。如果要我类比：类似于$AAOI在2025年的情况，或现在的$AEHR——正处于批量生产前的资质认证周期。正因如此，散户只看今天财务数据（负eps或capex支出）时会误解公司情况。而且与批量生产/capex支出相关的dfb激光扩产执行不确定性，已通过Win Semi被去风险化。然而看起来从2026年下半年开始会持续爬坡到2029年以后。可能在时间上稍早一些……但我认为这是对未来即将到来的趋势的一个不错研判。稀释是真实风险。但很多担忧已经被定价到约3.5亿美元市值里，尤其当$AVGO或AlChip这样的公司可以收购$SIVE用于垂直整合或干扰Marvell的CPO计划时。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers. $SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure. They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers. Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company. If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume. Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend. And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi. However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026. Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming. Dilution is a real risk. But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
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判断 SIVE / Win 会受新一轮 CW 激光周期带动。
$SIVE / Win 会受 2027 年下一轮架构超级周期里的 CW 激光推动。我现在只是像去年布局 $LITE 那样，提前在 H1 先埋伏。 你大概也知道，他们已经进了 $MRVL 的 Celestial、$JBL 的 1.6T LRO，以及 O-Net，所以到 2029 年会有很大的放量。 像 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 这些则是当前的光收发器周期。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE / Win benefits from CW lasers from the next architectural supercycle in 2027. I'm just frontrunning that now H1 like $LITE last year. You already kinda know they're in $MRVL Celestial, $JBL 1.6T LRO, and O-Net so thats huge ramp into 2029. Stuff like $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight are current optical transceiver cycles.
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认为光源供应商SIVE为MRVL和JBL供货，市值被低估至3.5亿美元。
我还是认为 $SIVE 值得投资。一家为 $MRVL 和 $JBL 提供光源的公司，市值不应该只有 3.5 亿美元。他们只需要在纳斯达克上市就行了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 I still think it's $SIVE. A company that's the light source for $MRVL and $JBL should be valued more than $350m imo. They just need to get listed on Nasdaq.
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认为 SIVE 的目标价远高于当前市值，作为激光供应商被严重低估。
@HeinzelAI 是的，入场点很重要，但长期来看我觉得没那么关键。 我个人认为 $SIVE 在未来一年可以涨 1000%+……我真不明白，为 $MRVL 和 $JBL 提供激光器的公司怎么才值 3.5 亿美元？
原推 ↗英文原文
@HeinzelAI Yeah entry point is important but long term it doesn’t matter imo. I personally think $SIVE can 1000%+ in the next year… not sure how the laser supplier to $MRVL and $JBL is valued at $350m?
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称欧洲光子学板块回暖，受伊朗局势缓和及空头回补推动。
欧洲光子学板块终于重新活过来了。 今天： $IQE：上涨 10.78% $SOI：上涨 9.96% $SIVE：上涨 12.7% 这发生在 FT 的报道背景下： “由于欧洲对伊朗战争过度敏感，对欧洲股票的做空押注创下纪录。” 现在伊朗达成停火后，欧洲股市承压大概会明显缓解。
原推 ↗英文原文
European photonics sector finally coming back to life. Today: $IQE: up 10.78% $SOI: up 9.96% $SIVE: up 12.7% This is amid the FT report: “Hedge funds make record bets against European stocks” due to Europe’s hypersensitivity to the Iran War. Now that there’s a ceasefire in Iran, it’s likely we’ll see a lot of the pressure will get taken off of European equities.
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认为投资者更偏好纯光子敞口，因此 SIVE 估值可能更高。
@PaperTZH 他们的另一业务板块对国家安全也很关键（CHIPS Act 受益者），但我确实认为投资者更喜欢纯光子敞口。 而这也会让 $SIVE 获得更高的估值溢价。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PaperTZH Their other segment is critical to national security (CHIPS ACT recipient), but I do think investors prefer pure-play photonics exposure. And that would likely command higher premiums for $SIVE.
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认为 SIVE 在 CW 激光赛道被低估，且随着 CPO 和光学扩产，估值有望抬升。
当你把从 $COHR 到 $AAOI 的 CW 激光龙头公司名单都过一遍时， 就会发现 $SIVE 以 3 亿美元市值还站在那里，真的很夸张……其他玩家几乎都已经是几十亿市值了。 而它还是 $JBL 1.6T LRO 光收发器和大约 $MRVL Celestial 光子项目的光源供应商（如今还受到 $NVDA 20 亿美元投资的加速）。 从 Furukawa 到 Yuanjie，整个行业最近都被重新定价了。 但我确实认为市场漏掉了这只，因为他们预计从 H2 开始量产爬坡（来自 $POET 的业绩提示），而 CPO 和光学扩产会带来多年指数级 TAM 扩张。 下行风险在于资产负债表，但我认为他们的光子业务实体未来大概率会在纳斯达克上市，而且作为超大规模客户的光源供应商，价值远高于当前估值。 而且这很可能会在不久后带来估值溢价。 我们看看结果是不是这样吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
When you go through the list of the leading CW laser companies from $COHR to $AAOI. It’s very impressive $SIVE stands out at $300m still… compared to the every other player in the billions. This is despite being the light source for $JBL 1.6T LRO optical transceivers and ~ $MRVL Celestial photonics program (now accelerated by $NVDA $2B investment). The sector from Furukawa to Yuanjie has been re-rated recently. But I do think markets missed this one, as they start volume ramp est. H2 (from $POET earnings) with multi year exponential TAM expansion from CPO and optical scale up. Downside risk is balance sheet, but I do think the likely Nasdaq listing for their photonics entity + scaling as the hyperscaler light source far exceeds current valuations. And will likely drive valuation premiums in a matter of time. We’ll see if this turns out right or not.
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
原推 ↗英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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抱怨高粉账号收费昂贵，却又批评免费分享的 alpha。
我已经受够了那些 10 万以上粉丝的账号——他们一年收 2000 多美元，只是为了让你看他们选了什么票…… 然后又会对那些免费分享从 $AAOI 到 $AXTI 这些名字的人感到不爽…… 还会用去年营收去评判 $AEHR 或 $SIVE，却完全不理解 2027 年的 CPO / SiPh 放量。 感觉这些账号终有一天会被慢慢淘汰，因为大家会意识到，alpha 可以免费拿，不必花几千美元去买。
原推 ↗英文原文
Getting tired of 100K+ follower accounts that who charge $2,000+ a year just to see their stock picks… That then get frustrated over someone who shares names from $AAOI to $AXTI for free… And then judge $AEHR or $SIVE by previous year revenue without understanding CPO/SiPH ramp in 2027. Feels like these accounts will get eroded over time as people realize they can get alpha for free instead of paying thousands for it.
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认为 SIVE 是最快有望翻倍的标的之一。
@Jornka329996 你说的是最稳妥的那个？在我看来，$SIVE 是最快有可能翻倍的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 You said safest, $SIVE is fastest potential double imo.
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回顾 LITE 四个月内大涨，并表示更偏好激光股做光子学敞口。
看到自己的 thesis 实时兑现，真的会有一种很自豪的感觉。 $LITE 从 371 美元涨到 836 美元，只用了过去 4 个月。 在宏观这么差的情况下，这对一家 580 亿美元市值的公司来说也不算差吧？ 这还是在指数和很多个股都下跌、而像 $POET 这样的光子股以及像 $RDDT 这样的个股年初至今都在跌的时候。 如果要做光子学敞口，我最喜欢的是激光公司，比如 $SIVE、$AAOI 和 Lumentum。 如果宏观环境更好，我预计很多公司的表现会比现在更强。
原推 ↗英文原文
I get a sense of pride when I see a thesis playing out well real time. $LITE $371 -> $836 in the last 4 months. Not bad for a $58B company despite macro? This is while indexes and individual stocks. And photonic stocks like $POET and individual stocks like $RDDT dropped YTD. I tend to like laser companies the most from $SIVE, $AAOI, and Lumentum for photonics exposure. And in a better macro environment, I expect many of them to be up more than they are now.
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看好 AEHR，但更偏好 LITE、AAOI，认为 SIVE 上行空间最大。
@peedgdev 我看多 $AEHR，但它不是我的第一选择。 如果说光子学板块里我最喜欢的，其实是 $LITE 和 $AAOI。然后上行空间最大的则是 $SIVE。 我最喜欢的是激光敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
@peedgdev Bullish on $AEHR, but not my #1 pick. I'm actually a fan of $LITE and $AAOI in the photonics space the most. Then highest upside is $SIVE. I like laser exposure the most.
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分析$POET低风险高现金特征及作为$MRVL独家供应商的投资逻辑
这事很微妙。$POET 下行风险低，因为大家都已经被稀释过了。 所以他们的现金储备约$4亿对比市值，缓冲了下行风险。 所以企业价值(EV)约$4-5亿，这对作为$MRVL独家供应商来说很划得来，即使几年后被技术替代。我还没看到他们有更多主要客户的多元化，这令人担忧。但如果他们真能轻松做成几十亿的公司，其他人可以去冒这个风险。 如果你看我个人选的股票，像$AEHR（也许还有$GOOGl、$AMD、$INTC，以及另一个光收发器客户）。 像$SIVE 一样，同样的$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar -> Alchip，以及其他市值更低的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's nuanced. $POET has low downside risk because everyone already got diluted. So their cash balance sheet is extremely high ~$400m vs. MC, which cushions downside risk. So EV is like $400-500m which is great for the sole source $MRVL Celestial supplier, even if they get engineered out in a few years. I haven't seen them have more lead customer diversification yet, which is concerning. But if they do easily few billion company, and other ppl can take that risk. If you look at the names I personally pick like $AEHR ( maybe $GOOGl, $AMD, $INTC, and another optical transceiver customer). With stuff like $SIVE, it's the same $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar -> Alchip, and others at a lower MC.
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在斯坦福顺路停留，并开玩笑说要问 Jensen 关于 SIVE 和 AXTI。
X 上的人都在聊 CS 153 Frontier Systems…… 本来有些人想让我过去，所以我就顺路去了斯坦福。 也许之后可以问问 Jensen 关于 $SIVE 和 $AXTI 的事。有人想问 ElevenLabs 的 CEO 什么问题吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
Everyone on X kept talking about CS 153 Frontier Systems... Some folks wanted me to come so stopped by Stanford. Maybe ask Jensen about $SIVE and $AXTI later. Anyone have questions for Elevenlabs CEO? https://t.co/rBtYYV4aHc
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给出光子学 CW 激光瓶颈的个人高 beta 排序。
下一轮光子学 CW 激光瓶颈： 我个人的高 beta 敞口排序： 1. $SIVE：3.02 亿美元 2. $AAOI：83.5 亿美元 3. Yuanjie（688498）：135.5 亿美元 4. $MTSI：174 亿美元 5. $LITE：561 亿美元 6. $COHR：492 亿美元 7. Suzhou Everbright：59.5 亿美元 8. LuxNet（4979.TWO）：17 亿美元 9. Henan Shijia（SHA: 688313）：62 亿美元 10. Furukawa Electric（TYO: 5801）：160.6 亿美元 11. Sumitomo Electric（TYO: 5802）：451.13 亿美元 12. Mitsubishi Electric（TYO: 6503）：712 亿美元 13. $AVGO：1.53 万亿美元 最后我自己拿了最高敞口的几个（但因为利益冲突，避开了港股标的）。
原推 ↗英文原文
For the next photonics CW laser chokepoint. Personal high-beta exposure tierlist: 1. $SIVE: $302m 2. $AAOI: $8.35B 3. Yuanjie (688498): $13.55B 4. $MTSI: $17.4B 5. $LITE: $56.1B 6. $COHR: $49.2B 7. Suzhou Everbright: $5.95B 8. LuxNet (4979.TWO): $1.7B 9. Henan Shijia (SHA: 688313): $6.2B 10. Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801): $16.06B 11. Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802): $45.113B 12. Mitsubishi Electric (TYO: 6503): $71.2B 13. $AVGO: $1.53T Ended up taking the highest exposure picks personally (but avoided HK listed names due to conflict of interest).
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总结 AXT、TSEM、SIVE、COHR、SOI 在各自瓶颈中的位置。
$AXTI 是瓶颈。 $TSEM 现在还不是，但我预计它在未来一两年里产能也会被打满。 $SIVE 即将进入 CW 激光周期。 $COHR 什么都做，EML 这块是强项，但在其他一些东西上就不是。 $SOI 严格来说不完全是瓶颈，但它在 SOI 衬底上是垄断地位，而这些衬底对 SiPh 和 CPO 都是必需的，所以这会让所有相关产品都带来显著的营收增长。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is a bottleneck. $TSEM not yet so far, but I'd expect it to be maxed out on capacity next year or two. $SIVE upcoming with CW lasers. $COHR does way too much, on EML yes, on other things no. $SOI not exactly a bottleneck but it's a monopoly over soi substrates, which are required for siph and cpo. so this leads to material revenue increases from everything that gets made.
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认为 Win Semi 被严重低估，在机器人、太空和 AI 供应链里都很关键。
一个被严重低估的冷门 OP 标的。 还是几乎没人谈论 Win Semi（$3105.TWO）…… 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE，以及从 $AAPL 到 $AVGO 再到 SpaceX。 感觉大家其实都在用它？ 我觉得 54 亿美元的估值低估了它在机器人、太空和 AI 超大规模客户供应链中的重要性。
原推 ↗英文原文
What a sleeper OP pick. Still almost nobody talks about Win Semi ($3105.TWO)… From $LITE to $SIVE. And $AAPL to $AVGO to SpaceX. Feels like everyone uses them? $5.4B price tag is underselling its importance to robotics, space, and AI hyperscaler supply chains imo. https://t.co/lMg92KzufM
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把内存仓位更集中到 SiPh/CPO 相关标的，并期待 SK 海力士和三星财报带来反弹。
@B38B37 我个人把内存相关仓位更多转向了 SiPh/CPO 相关的名字，比如 $AEHR、$SIVE 和 $SOI。 我现在还是有不少内存敞口，只是比今年早些时候少一些。不过我确实预计接下来 SK 海力士和三星的财报会再带来一轮上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 I personally pivoted concentration in memory more toward siph/cpo names like $AEHR $SIVE and $SOI. I still have a good amount of memory exposure but less than earlier this year. However I do expect the upcoming sk Hynix and Samsung earnings to trigger another rally
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认为现在还很早，自己更偏好少数纯标的和更稳健的名字。
还不算晚进场，实际上还非常早，正处在下一个拐点的起点。 如果让我现在选两只更小、更纯的标的，我个人会喜欢 $SIVE 和 $AEHR，再加一只 $AAOI 也许不错。 更稳一点的话，Win、$SOI、$MRVL 看起来都很扎实？ 可选名字其实很多……
原推 ↗英文原文
Not really late too the party, it’s extremely early and at the beginning of the next inflection point. I personally like $SIVE, $AEHR if I had to pick two more smaller purer play companies around now, maybe throw in $AAOI on the next drop. For safer, Win, $SOI, $MRVL seem solid? Quite a lot of names…
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批评用传统模型建模CPO放量期收入，分享如何识别光子学超级周期中的纯正概念股。
请停止尝试为2025-2026年CPO/SiPH放量期的收入建立模型了……当我上个月在约115美元（现已四舍五入到200美元）查看$TSEM时，前瞻市盈率压缩至约16-18倍（在成长情景下低至10-12倍）。同样的逻辑也适用于$AEHR/$SIVE/$SOI/Win Semi等其他标的。这是2026年上半年。量产的放量将出现在2026年下半年。我们正处在一个大规模超级周期的最早期阶段，而这些是我在光子学下一代架构变革中最纯正的概念股配置：用于测试、CW激光器、衬底和晶圆代工的公司，在光子学超级周期的新范式转换中占有一席之地。像$LITE或$AAOI这样我去年长期持有的公司已经跨越了多个周期。然而，最大的回报来自于提前预判哪些公司将在未来收入/TAM增长中获得最大收益（这部分尚未反映在当前股价中）。不是用过去2年的历史回报来计算公允价值。而且当我们看一个庞大的新型光子学TAM（lightcounting的牛市情景预测为1100亿美元以上），主要由使用CW激光器作为示例的架构驱动，或在良率方面遇到挑战。许多这类公司很可能会出现大幅重新定价。尤其是当我们看到下一代架构变革开始发生时，时间点大约在2026年下半年。
原推 ↗英文原文
Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp… When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now). The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios) Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names. This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026. We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics: For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle. Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles. However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings). Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value. And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields. A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard. Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.
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回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
原推 ↗英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
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认为 SIVE 主要处在 Marvell 生态里。
@GagHendo007 $SIVE 主要还是处在 Marvell 的生态里。 这就已经很关键了！
原推 ↗英文原文
@GagHendo007 $SIVE is mainly Marvell’s ecosystem. This is everything!
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列出一篮子“粉丝最爱”的高波动候选 ETF 组合。
Serenity 粉丝最爱的股票：抛物线增长 ETF。 有史以来最令人期待的 ETF： $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 欧元 $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - 0.315 澳元 $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 欧元 $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 欧元 $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 我没听说过这里面三分之一的名字，但如果我的关注者们对某只票有很高的 conviction，觉得它能 10 倍…… 那我也是。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF: The most anticipated ETF of all time: $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 EUR $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - .315 AUD $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 EUR $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 EUR $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 I haven't heard of 1/3rd of these names, but if my followers have high conviction that their name will 10x... So do I.
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说明 SIVE 还有 OTC 代码。
@Sumojoe118 $SIVE 在美国 OTC 还可以用 $SIVEF 交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Sumojoe118 $SIVE trades US OTC as $SIVEF too.
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按类别列出自己喜欢的几只名字。
@FranGGlez 哦，每个类别来一只： 1. $MRVL 2. $SIVE 3. Win 4. $SOI 5. $LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
@FranGGlez Oh one from each category: 1. $MRVL 2. $SIVE 3. Win 4. $SOI 5. $LITE
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认为激光瓶颈下很难选赢家，Sivers 以较低市值却进入大客户路线图而很有吸引力。
100% 是激光。 我个人不会往下游去做组装之类的业务。 但在激光瓶颈下，真的很难在 Luxnet、Furukawa、Sumitomo、$SIVE、$MTSI、$LITE、$SMTC（在 Heico 收购 CW 之后）这些公司里挑出唯一赢家…… 不过我觉得 Sivers 特别有吸引力，因为它们已经进入了 $JBL 的 1.6T 路线图，以及 $MRVL 的 CPO 路线图，而市值才大约 2.9 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
100% lasers. I personally wouldn't go downstream into assembly and others. But with the laser chokepoint it's really hard to pick a winner between stuff like Luxnet, Furukawa, Sumitomo, $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE, $SMTC (after heico cw acqusition) and others... But I found Sivers to be really compelling since they're in $JBL 1.6T + $MRVL CPO roadmap at ~$290m MC.
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引用 Lightcounting 认为光互连到 2030 年可到 1000 亿美元，并列出自己偏好的链条标的。
Lightcounting："这不是笔误" 到 2030 年，光互连市场很有可能从 2025 年的约 190 亿美元增长到 1000 亿美元以上。 如果你想看我最喜欢的名字： 复合型：$MRVL、$SMTC CW 激光：$SIVE、$MTSI、$AAOI 晶圆代工：$TSEM、Win Semi 衬底 / 外延：$AXTI、$SOI、$IQE 黄金标准：$LITE、$COHR 下一轮 TAM 扩张的乘数，主要由 CPO / Scale Up 驱动，而这大多由 SiPh 和外部 CW 激光推动。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lightcounting: "This is not a typo" Optical interconnects has a reasonable chance to reach $100B+ by 2030 from ~$19B (2025). If you're looking for my favorite names: Compounders: $MRVL, $SMTC CW Lasers: $SIVE, $MTSI, $AAOI Foundries $TSEM, Win Semi Substrates/Epitaxy: $AXTI, $SOI, $IQE Gold Standard: $LITE, $COHR The next TAM expansion multiplier is CPO/Scale Up, largely driven by SiPh and external CW lasers.
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认为美国企业采购瑞典激光供应商很有意思，欧洲高技术并不意外。
@Sofigoodboy 看到美国企业正在使用像瑞典的 $SIVE 这样的尖端激光供应商，供应链这件事真的很有意思！ 不过欧洲本来就以像 $ASML 这样的顶尖技术著称，所以这也不算特别意外。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Sofigoodboy 미국 기업들이 스웨덴의 $SIVE 와 같은 최첨단 레이저 공급업체를 이용하고 있다는 사실을 보면 공급망이란 정말 흥미롭습니다! 하지만 유럽은 $ASML 처럼 뛰어난 기술력을 보유한 것으로 잘 알려져 있으니, 그리 유별난 일도 아니지요.
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认为下一轮光子学升级里，SIVE 这类纯激光公司仍有空间。
当然还有 Sumitomo、Furukawa、$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR 这些公司…… 但像 $SIVE 这样，作为下一轮光子学放量的纯 CW 激光标的，真的很少见。 很多人现在看的是当前周期的可靠性，但下一代架构不一样，老版本可能会过剩。所以我觉得在 CPO / scale up 里，新的小公司还有机会冒头。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes there’s others out there like Sumitomo, Furukawa, $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, and these types of players… But very rare to you see a pure play cw laser for the next photonics ramp like $SIVE. People are looking at current cycles for reliability, but next architectures are different and might glut older versions. So I think there’s room for new smaller players to shine for cpo/scale up
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说自己正在回敬那些说 thesis 错了的人。
@Mr_Drone 正在回头打脸那些说我 $AXTI 或 $SIVE thesis 错了的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Mr_Drone Victory lapping all the haters who said my $AXTI or $SIVE thesis was wrong
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认为市场终于开始意识到，Nvidia 投资 Marvell 背后对应的是上游光子链重估。
市场终于开始意识到的事情： 下游：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 的 Celestial CPO 项目投资了 20 亿美元： $POET（Celestial 的 interposers）：财报里说今年要出货 3 万台光引擎。 $SIVE 是 Poet 和 Celestial 在 Marvell 光子路线图中近中期的光源。 Win Semi 是 InP CW 激光生产的晶圆代工。 而更上游的还有：$SOI / $AXTI 这些衬底，以及 $IQE 的外延片。 这就是下一轮光子学超级周期的起点，而且估值便宜得离谱。 而且这发生得比市场和机构在 2026 年预期的还要早，Nvidia 正在抢跑整条转变路径。 99.9% 的人只看到了 Marvell 下游的变化，但还没意识到上游的供应冲击会在哪里发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
Something that markets are finally starting to realize: Downstream: $NVDA invested $2B into $MRVL Celestial CPO program: $POET (Celestial’s Interposers): To ship 30,000 optical engines to ship this year from earnings today. $SIVE is the light source of Poet and Celestial for near/mid term Marvell photonics roadmap. Win Semi is the foundry for InP CW laser production. And even more upstream: $SOI / $AXTI for substrates and $IQE for epiwafers. This is the very start of the next photonics supercycle, at dirt cheap valuations. And it’s happening earlier than markets and institutions expected in 2026, with Nvidia frontrunning this entire shift. 99.9% of people see the changes happening downstream with Marvell, but don’t realize yet where the supply shocks will happen upstream.
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认为 Nvidia 给 Marvell 20 亿美元投资后，更看好 Celestial 生态。
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA 给 $MRVL 20 亿美元，确实让我对 Celestial 生态里的 $POET 和 $SIVE 更看多了一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA handing $2B to $MRVL does make me a bit more bullish on the celestial ecosystem like $POET and $SIVE.
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继续偏爱激光链条，而不是只看 POET。
@PhotonCap 我以前提过 $POET！不过就我个人而言，我还是更喜欢 $LITE 和 $SIVE 这种激光侧的标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap I’ve talked about $POET before! But personally I’ve liked the laser side of things more with $LITE and $SIVE
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回顾自己一年回报超过 1000%，并列出下一轮光子学与 AI 相关主题。
过去一年里，回报 +1,124.09%，算是稳稳的。 匿名网友，距离靠 AI 逃离永久下层阶级，是不是只剩几年了？ OpenAI 融资 1220 亿美元，足够再把这波行情烧上两年。 而光子学 < $SIVE 到 $AAOI >、$AEHR 的测试、$NBIS 的数据中心，以及从 $AMKR 到 $POET 的先进封装这些新超级周期，才刚刚开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year. Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI? OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years. And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET. Is just getting started.
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韩语回复，表示自己现在聚焦 CPO / SiPh，并纠正几项细节。
真的读得很有意思，谢谢你分享！ 你对最近这些事件的理解大多是对的！我最近也非常专注于 $SOI、$TSEM 等包含在 CPO（共同封装光学）/硅光子领域里的方向。 有几处小更正：5 亿到 10 亿美元（$500m - $1B）的规模更像是 Celestial 的事，而不是 $SIVE。不过还是挺有意思，也读得很过瘾。
原推 ↗英文原文
정말 재미있게 읽었습니다. 공유해 주셔서 감사합니다! 최근 이슈들에 대한 내용은 대부분 정확하네요! 저는 요즘 $SOI나 $TSEM 등을 포함한 CPO(공동 패키지 광학)/실리콘 포토닉스 분야에 확실하게 집중하고 있습니다. 몇 가지 사소한 정정을 하자면, 5억~10억 달러($500m - $1B) 규모의 수치는 $SIVE 가 아니라 셀레스티얼(Celestial)에 해당하는 내용인 것 같습니다. 그래도 흥미롭게 잘 읽었습니다.
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认为市场低估了 Nvidia 投资下游后带来的上游供应冲击。
市场漏掉了 Nvidia 投资的含义： 今天它向光学领域的 $COHR 投了 20 亿美元。 向光学领域的 $LITE 投了 20 亿美元。 今天又向光学领域的 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 Nvidia 去年就用过同样的剧本。 他们意识到 800G/1.6T 可插拔器件的推进会耗尽全球 EML 供给。 所以他们接触了 $LITE、$COHR、Sumitomo，并提前预定了大部分产能。 我们已经在他们股价里看到了反映：自从那轮严重供给紧张以来，$LITE 已经涨了 955%。 现在我们看到同样的剧本在过去一个月里再次开始。 只是这次是一个新的架构。 而且这些交易都包含了几十亿美元的采购承诺和未来产能权利。 所以……下一步是什么？CW / EML 和 CPO 瓶颈。 Nvidia 只是更喜欢投资下游玩家，但真正的供应紧张发生在上游。 来自 $MTSI、$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR、Furukawa 和 Sumitomo 的激光供应商都在全速运转。 Win Semi、$TSEM、$GFS 这些晶圆代工也大概率在满负荷运转。 整条供应链都会受益（比如 $AEHR 的测试、$SOI 的衬底）。 但从晶圆代工到 ELS / CW 激光瓶颈的这两个环节，可能会是最大的受益者。 Nvidia 是下一轮发生什么的最大信号；现在只是等拐点到来的时间而已。
原推 ↗英文原文
The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.
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认为 SIVE 在低市值下值得给更高溢价。
@glfikk 也许应该给 100-200% 的溢价，因为 $SIVE 的市值实在太低了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@glfikk Maybe 100-200% premium since $SIVE MC is incredibly low.
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认为 POET 受益，但 SIVE 对 Nvidia 和 Marvell 的 Celestial 更关键。
@marioyep5 是的，$POET 确实是受益者，但 $SIVE 作为光源，对 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的 Celestial 现在来说非常关键。
原推 ↗英文原文
@marioyep5 Yes, $POET is beneficiary but $SIVE is incredibly important to $NVDA and $MRVL Celestial now as the light source. https://t.co/mn3oESTKlw
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认为 Nvidia 可能更希望 SIVE 保持独立，也可能出现股权收购或被 Broadcom 并购。
@yuntungshieh 我觉得 Nvidia 可能更希望 $SIVE 保持独立。 所以我们可能会看到 $MRVL、AlChip 对它做股权收购……或者也可能被 $AVGO 收购，用来卡死竞争对手的 CPO 路线图。现在还不确定最后会怎么演。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yuntungshieh I think Nvidia would rather have $SIVE stay independent. So we might see some share acquisition from $MRVL, AlChip… or maybe an acquisition by $AVGO to chokepoint their competitors CPO roadmap. Not sure how this plays out.
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调侃如果 Broadcom 买下 SIVE，就能控制后续多家公司的路线图。
如果 $AVGO 真的花 3 亿美元买下 $SIVE，那就太可惜了…… 这样一来，它就能从上游光源层面控制 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的近端路线图。 我相信博通肯定不会在想这个……对吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
It would be a shame if $AVGO bought $SIVE for $300m… Then controlled the near term roadmap for $NVDA and $MRVL from the upstream light source level. I’m sure Broadcom isn’t thinking about this… right? https://t.co/wrS431DG8n
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认为 POET 受益巨大，但很多分析师忽略了其光源来自 SIVE。
@InvestWithFelix 对，$POET 是巨大的受益者。它在 Celestial 体系里更广为人知。 但连分析师都会忽略，Poet 的 ELS 光源其实来自 $SIVE。 不过 Nvidia 对这个生态的验证，对整个链条都很重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
@InvestWithFelix Yep $POET is a massive beneficary. It’s more well known with Celestial. Even analysts miss though Poet’s light source for ELS comes from $SIVE. But huge for their whole ecosystem that Nvidia is validating it
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把 Nvidia 备货 EML 产能的历史剧本，类比到下一代光子瓶颈。
这就是 $NVDA 当年提前锁定全部 EML 产能时的那套剧本，在那之前超大规模客户那边就已经出现了巨大的供给冲击。 这也是为什么我一直在为下一处瓶颈里的 $SIVE 拉响警报。 因为 $NVDA 现在也在下一代架构上做同样的事。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is the exact playbook $NVDA did securing all the EML capacity before there was a massive supply shock for the rest of the hyperscalers. That’s why I’ve been sounding the alarm with $SIVE in the next chokepoint. Since $NVDA is doing the same with the next gen architectures.
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认为 SIVE 已经进入 Nvidia 路线图，且市值仍很小。
@degenlurker_ 有意思的是，$SIVE 现在已经被写进 $NVDA 的路线图里了，而市值还只有大约 3 亿美元。 只是现在还没人把 Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell 这种多级关系串起来，虽然 Nvidia 已经砸了 20 亿美元去加速他们的 CPO 路线图了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@degenlurker_ It’s funny $SIVE is now baked into $NVDA roadmap now at ~$300M MC. Just no one associates multi hop relations between Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell yet when Nvidia invested $2B into accelerating their CPO roadmap yet.
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Nvidia 对 Marvell 的 20 亿美元投资，也验证了 SIVE 的光源位置。
刚刚消息出来：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 这笔交易主要是为了“联合硅光工作”，也验证了 Marvell 和 Celestial AI 的光互连 CPO 路线图。 但……谁在给 $MRVL 的光源供电，这点市场可能漏了？（提示：$SIVE）
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: $NVDA invests $2B in $MRVL. This deal is largely for “joint silicon photonics work” and validates Marvell and Celestial AI's optical fabric CPO roadmap. But… guess who powers the light source for $MRVL that markets might have missed? (Hint: $SIVE) https://t.co/9lqJLIx7nG
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以Marvell收购Celestial为例，分析CPO供应链中Sivers作为CW激光器关键瓶颈供应商的巨大TAM扩张潜力。
看看$MRVL收购Celestial（$SIVE是其~2.9亿美元的光源供应商）这个例子就知道了。Marvell以55亿美元收购Celestial（32.5亿美元+22.5亿美元里程碑付款）。2026/2027年预期：零收入，亏损5000万美元。2028年预期：5亿美元收入。2029年预期：10亿美元收入。这是巨大的TAM（市场规模）扩张和收入加速增长。Sivers只是Celestial之上的客户之一，此外还有O-Net、Ayar、其他未公开的CPO（共封装光学）厂商，Jabil负责桥接量产爬坡并赢得良率。那些对光子学毫无理解的散户……正在做的事相当于：因为Celestial在2025、2026年没有CPO收入，就把它建模为5000万美元。因为它目前处于净亏损状态，而不是着眼于2027年之后的大规模爬坡。$SIVE是我抢先布局下一个架构超级周期（位于最早期阶段）的首选标的，涉及ELS TAM扩张+CPO+连续波(CW)激光器瓶颈。如果你想找后期介入的标的，可以看$LITE，它已经涨了3800%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just look at $MRVL Celestial ( $SIVE is the light source at ~$290m ) as an example. Marvell bought it for $5.5B. ($3.25B + 2.25B milestones). 2026/2027 expectations: 0 revenue, -$50m loss 2028 expectations: $500m revenue 2029 expectations: $1B revenue. This is massive TAM expansion and revenue acceleration. This is just one of Sivers customer on top of O-Net, Ayar, other undisclosed CPO players, with Jabil bridging volume ramp and Win with yields. Random retail users with no understanding of photonics… are doing the equivalent of modeling Celestial at $50m because of no CPO revenue in 2025 2026. And because it’s operating at a net loss instead of looking at the massive ramp 2027 onward. $SIVE is my #1 pick for frontrunning the next architectural supercycles at the very beginning for ELS TAM expansion + CPO + CW laser chokepoints. If you want a later stage pick, you can look at $LITE that already ran 3800%.
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批评外行和媒体拿财务指标误判光子学、CPO 与 RPI 这类高增长标的。
请别再发消息问我那些随机散户或者记者对 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的分析了。 对于 $AXTI： 大多数人根本不知道自己在说什么。 三星代工和 $LITE 的 InP fab 完全是供应链的不同环节，这就像把 NAND 和 DRAM 混成一个存储类别一样。 就算说 Sumitomo 会取代 AXT，也说明这些人根本不懂上游的开采 / 加工 / 坩埚瓶颈，而 InP 衬底级公司像 $COHR 或 Sumitomo 本来就不是干这个的。 对于 $SIVE： 这就是 2027 年以后 CPO 规模化放量的质变点。 我看到很多对光子学完全不懂的人，拿毛利率、烧钱速度，以及前几年的营收甚至今年的营收来分析。 可 2027 年以后才会迎来最大的一次架构拐点。 如果你看 $MRVL Celestial 的时间点，它们 2027 年开始放量，2028、2029 年还会指数级增长。 所以我才说 $SIVE 有一天能成为 100 亿美元以上的公司，因为我看的是前瞻增长，而且这是最早能切入的位置。 我做的事情就是找 alpha： 市场可能像那些把 $RPI 前瞻增速说成 14-17% 的分析师一样，把它错定价了。 然后我建模成 55%，结果事实是 58%。 一个是光子学瓶颈，自有其原因。 另一个是被设计进 Jabil 和 Celestial 的，自有其原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE. For $AXTI: Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about. Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory. Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do. For $SIVE: This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards. I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year. For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards. If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029. That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on. What I do is find alpha: This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI. Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%. One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason. The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.
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说自己被质疑，因为 CPO 放量是 2027 年而他们在提前布局。
@JustinasRoland0 我之前把那人拉黑了，因为他根本不知道自己在说什么。 CPO 的放量是 2027 年，这就是我在提前布局；但还有一堆人还在试图拿新前沿技术（比如 CW 激光）以前的盈利和烧钱速度来建模。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JustinasRoland0 Blocked the guy earlier because they have no clue what they're talking about. CPO ramp is 2027, this is frontrunning it, and there's idiots out there still trying to model previous earnings and burn rate of new frontier technologies like CW laser tech.
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认为被叫 meme stock 的标的最后往往成了大公司，SIVE 会是下一个。
@innovavest 我不知道。所有被散户和媒体贴上“meme stock”标签的我的票，最后都变成了像 $AXTI 这样的十亿美元级公司。 $SIVE 会是下一个，我很有信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@innovavest Idk. All the retail and news "labelled meme stocks" for my picks ended up becoming billion dollar companies like $AXTI. $SIVE is next, have high confidence.
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认为若 CPO 在 2026 年下半年到来，自己会继续持有 SIVE。
为什么每个 ticker 都有人一直问我同一个问题。 如果 CPO 的拐点会在 2026 年下半年到来，那我会继续拿着 $SIVE，因为我是在提前布局下一轮光子学变化。 考虑到它只有 2.8 亿美元市值，$AVGO 明天就能把它的光子业务 / IP 买下来，从而控制 $MRVL 的光子路线图……所以我个人除了稀释之外，几乎看不到多少下行风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
Why do people keep asking me this for every single ticker. If CPO inflection is coming in late 2026, I'm holding $SIVE, since I'm frontrunning the next photonics shift. Given it's a $280M MC, $AVGO can just buy their photonics division/IP tomorrow and control $MRVL's photonics roadmap... so I personally don't see much downside risk aside from dilution.
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认为 MRVL 是长期好票，但 SIVE 作为瓶颈环节会对其增长造成威胁。
@StocksAREnuts $MRVL 确实是一只很好的长期多头。 我只是想分享一下：某个竞争对手如果想卡住它的增长垂直业务线，只需要花 3.5 亿美元买下 $SIVE 这种级别的公司就行。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StocksAREnuts $MRVL is a really good long term long. I’m just sharing thought about how a competitor could potentially chokepoint their growth verticals for a rounding error of $350m with $SIVE
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希望 SIVE 保持独立，担心被竞争对手低价买下。
@Matrix_B0SS 我其实希望 $SIVE 保持独立。 只是随手写了些洗澡时冒出来的想法，觉得另一家超大客户或竞争对手可能会用区区 3.5 亿美元就控制 $MRVL 的近端光子项目。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS I actually hope $SIVE remains independent. Just posting some shower thoughts about how another hyperscaler or competitor could control $MRVL near term photonics program for a cheap price of $350m.
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认为 SIVE 可能被多方盯上，也可能因持股结构保持独立。
洗澡时冒出来的一个想法…… SIVE 现在可能已经被 $QCOM、$MRVL、$AVGO、AlChip、联发科、$AMZN、$META、$MSFT 的风投部门盯上了？ 既然现在大家都公开知道了，Broadcom 只要花 3.5 亿美元就能买下 Marvell 在光子学上的咽喉点（Amazon / Microsoft 的 ASIC 项目）…… 或者 Qualcomm 也可以用同样的方式收购 $SIVE，然后在收购 Alphawave 之后把激光 IP 做垂直整合。 又或者……超大规模客户会通过持有足够多股份，想办法让 $SIVE 继续保持独立？
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s funny a shower thought… Probably put $SIVE on the radar for $QCOM, $MRVL, $AVGO, AlChip, Mediatek, $AMZN, $META, $MSFT venture arms now? Since everyone publicly knows now Broadcom can just go and buy Marvell’s photonics chokepoint vulnerability (Amazon/Microsoft ASIC programs) for a rounding error of $350m… Or Qualcomm can do the same buying $SIVE then vertically integrate laser IP after Alphawave aquisition. Or maybe… hyperscalers figure out a way $SIVE remains independent by owning enough shares?
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认为 Marvell 也许可以用很小成本持有 SIVE 一部分。
@PerDahlstrm $MRVL 其实只要花 3000 万美元买下 $SIVE 的 10% 到 20%，就能把他们十亿美元级别的 CPO 项目稳住。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PerDahlstrm $MRVL can just buy 10-20% of $SIVE for $30m and secure their billion dollar CPO program
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认为 SIVE 不太可能被 ARM 并购。
@VJNCapital 不会。$SIVE Photonics 作为上游光学组件供应商规模太小了，所以大概率会被放行。 $ARM 的体量则太大，会引发反垄断问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
@VJNCapital Nope. $SIVE photonics is too small as an upstream optical component supplier so would likely pass. $ARM would raise antitrust due to size.
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Sivers作为稀缺独立cw激光供应商，战略价值远超当前市值估值。
我个人看到 $SIVE 下跌风险较小的原因： 像 $AVGO 这样 $MRVL 的竞争对手可以直接收购 Sivers，从而控制其近中期光子学路线图... 估值约 2.9 亿美元... 如果再便宜一点的话。 Gemini 的回应很有趣： "像 Broadcom 这样以约 2.9 亿美元收购 Sivers Photonics 来扼制 Marvell 新收购的 Celestial AI 路线图不仅仅是战略行为； 这是一场投资回报率高得离谱的供应链战争。" "花点小钱，竞争对手就能控制上游光源，把握直接的 IP 路线图，并让试图整合 Celestial AI 的 Marvell 付出数十亿美元的机会成本。" 对于 $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN 等超大规模云服务商来说，投资 Sivers 来确保其共封装光学(CPO)供应链可能比让它被竞争对手收购更有利。 就像 $QLCM 与 Alphawave 针对 OpenLight 生态所做的操作一样。 我的观点是：$SIVE 作为全球少数保持独立运营的 cw 激光器供应商之一的关键瓶颈地位... 其固有的价值远超其市值。 对冲基金因「MC」和瑞典交易所上市限制无法投资从而压低估值... 对于收购方或散户投资者来说反而是一种因祸得福。
原推 ↗英文原文
The reason I personally see less downside risk with $SIVE: A competitor to $MRVL like $AVGO can just buy Sivers outright and their near-medium term photonics roadmap… At ~$290m… if it gets any cheaper. Gemini responses were interesting: “ A competitor like Broadcom buying Sivers Photonics for ~$290M to choke Marvell’s newly acquired Celestial AI roadmap isn't just strategic; It is supply chain warfare with an absurdly high ROI. “ “ For pocket change, a competitor could buy the upstream light source, control the immediate IP roadmap, and inflict billions of dollars worth of opportunity cost on Marvell right as they try to integrate Celestial AI “ It’s likely better for hyperscalers like $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN to invest in Sivers to secure their CPO supply chain then have it being bought out by one of their competitors. Like what happened already with $QLCM and Alphawave for OpenLight. My opinion: $SIVE chokepoint as one of the few projects remaining independent cw laser suppliers in the world… Is inherently way more valuable than their marketcap. Hedge funds not being able to invest due to “MC” and Sweden listing to keep valuations depressed… is a blessing in disguise for both acquisitions or retail investors.
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把近期机构轮动理解为 CPO/ELS 上游链条的机会。
尽管指数和巨头都在跌，比如 $META / $MSFT，但市场里依然明显有一些超额收益者。 这大概说明了机构轮动，或者说某个非常强的新兴行业已经在形成。 最明显的就是 CPO / ELS 供应链。 我个人的标的包括： $TSEM / Win Semi - 光子学里的 TSM $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE - 光源 $SOI / $AXTI - 衬底 $IQE - 外延片 当然也有更大的名字，比如 $MRVL、Sumitomo、$AVGO。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s clearly some market outperformers despite index’s and mega caps from $META / $MSFT crashing. This probably signals institutions rotation or an extremely strong up and coming sector. The obvious one is into CPO/ELS supply chains. My personal picks were: $TSEM / Win Semi- TSM of photonics $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE- Light Sources $SOI / $AXTI - Substrates $IQE - Epiwafers But of course there are larger names out there like $MRVL, Sumitomo, $AVGO.
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对比光通信供应链各玩家对CPO光源业务的直接敞口差异
当然，这更像是直接敞口与市值的对比。 光源环境如下： 头部玩家：Lumentum (550亿美元)、Broadcom (1万亿美元)、Coherent (550亿美元)、Sumitomo (规模庞大) 大型玩家：$AAOI (约80亿美元)、Furukawa (约70亿美元)、$MTSI (约190亿美元) 新兴玩家：$INTC (约2300亿美元+)、$SIVE (2.3亿美元)、Luxnet (17亿美元) 你可以买$AVGO来获得光子学敞口，但因为它规模太大……他们的其他业务部门可能会稀释敞口。 另一方面，如果你看$SIVE，由于规模很小，它几乎是CPO光源升级的纯概念股。 所以我最终选择了最直接的敞口。 很多人对市值(MC)感到不适，所以Furukawa、$MTSI、Sumitomo这类公司可能更受机构分析师青睐。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, it's more like direct exposure vs. marketcap. The light source environment looks like this: Leading players: Lumentum ($55B), Broadcom ($1T), Coherent ($55B), Sumitomo (massive) Large Players: $AAOI (~$8B), Furukawa (~$7B), $MTSI (~$19B) Emerging players: $INTC (~$230B+), $SIVE ($230M), Luxnet ($1.7B) You can buy $AVGO for photonics exposure, but because it's so large... their other segments will probably be diluting exposure. On the other hand, if you look at $SIVE, it's almost pure-play to the light source ramp for CPO because it's so small. So I ended up picking the most direct exposure. Lot of people are uncomfortable with MC, so companies like Furukawa, $MTSI, Sumitomo might be more popular with institutional analysts.
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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说很多业内高管在关注 SIVE 这样的瓶颈点，接下来几个月值得看。
@TheValueist 是啊，自从我发了最初那篇帖子后，不少行业高管都开始对 $SIVE 感兴趣。 接下来几个月看看这些瓶颈点会怎么演化，会很有意思。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TheValueist Yep, lot of industry executives got interested in $SIVE after I made the original post. Should be interesting to see how these chokepoints plan out over the next few months
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认为上游光源被控住后，MRVL 的光子路线图会被低成本卡住。
大致就是 $SIVE -> Win -> $POET -> Celestial -> $MRVL 这条链。 你只要把上游光源买下来，就能用很低的成本控制 Marvell 的供应链。 他们当然可以绕开，但认证时间和延迟会拖慢路线图。 或者 $MRVL 也可以入股，确保 $SIVE 保持独立。
原推 ↗英文原文
It goes $SIVE -> Win -> $POET -> Celestial -> $MRVL basically. You just buy out the upstream light source and Marvell’s supply chain gets controlled for dirt cheap. They can engineer around it but qualification time and delays roadmap. Or $MRVL can secure a stake to make sure $SIVE remains independent
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承认现金少和历史包袱，但认为独立 cw 激光供应商的价值足以抵消下行。
当然，现金余额低、来自母公司的历史包袱、后续还会有进一步稀释。 Ayar 在做多来源采购，而且更偏向 $LITE。可能还会遇到 Win 的认证问题，以及 CPO 路线图延迟。 但我认为，作为全球少数几家独立 cw 激光供应商之一，它的价值足以抵消这些下行风险。这个身份本身就非常有价值。 如果跌得足够便宜，对冲基金或者像 Broadcom、Marvell 这样的公司，完全可以用很低的价钱把它收购，然后向上游一体化，或者把竞争对手的关键路径卡住。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, low cash balance, legacy drag from parent company, further dilution along the way. Ayar multi sourcing and leaning more heavily toward $LITE. Maybe qualification issues with Win. CPO roadmap delays. I do think any downside risk is negated by how valuable being one of the only independent cw laser suppliers in the world. So that itself is really valuable. If it ever drops enough a hedge fund or company like Broadcom or Marvell can just buy it out for pennies and either vertically integrate upstream or chokepoint out competitors.
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认为 Broadcom 可以通过收购光子子公司来切入军工和 CHIPS 相关供应链。
@Ud197601 他们的母公司因为是 CHIPS 法案受益者，而且还和军工承包商合作。 光子学子公司也许会成为可争夺的目标。 而且 $AVGO 也不是什么陌生公司，所以他们完全做得到。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ud197601 Their parent company bc it’s CHIPS act recipient and partners with military contractors. The photonics subsidiary might be fair game. And $AVGO isn’t an unknown company so they can pull it off
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认为 SIVE 太上游，不太会卷进反垄断，Broadcom 可以轻松控制 MRVL 路线图。
@InFoTheLongTerm $SIVE 作为激光组件供应商，位置太上游了，所以不会被反垄断问题缠住，这样 Broadcom 就能把这件事做成。 有意思的是，这里其实就是一个瓶颈点，你等于可以在中短期内掌控 $MRVL 的光子学路线图，因为新供应商的认证需要时间。
原推 ↗英文原文
@InFoTheLongTerm $SIVE is too upstream as a laser component vendor to be caught up in antitrust so @Broadcom can pull it off. But the funny thing is it’s a chokepoint and you’d effectively own $MRVL photonics roadmap near-medium term since qualification of new suppliers takes time.
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设想 Broadcom 收购上游光源后控制 Marvell 短中期光子路线图。
只是一个洗澡时突然冒出来的想法： 像 $AVGO 这样的竞争对手，如果用 2.8 亿美元收购 $MRVL 的上游光源 $SIVE，那会很聪明。 这样你就能控制他们短中期的光子学路线图，连 Celestial 也在你手里。 有点像 $QLCM 当年把 Alphawave 和 OpenLight 生态圈拿下。 已经有不少对冲基金在谈潜在并购机会了。 问了 Gemini，回答还挺好笑。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a shower thought: Would be smart for a competitor like $AVGO to buy $MRVL upstream light source for $280M with $SIVE. Then you control their short-mid term photonics roadmap with Celestial. Kind of like $QLCM did with Alphawave and OpenLight ecosystem. Quite a few hedge funds already talked about potential M&A opportunities. Asked Gemini, response was funny
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认为用有限 TAM 思路来理解 SIVE 这种瓶颈点是错的，应该看扩张/博弈。
很高兴这有帮助。 我说 $SIVE 让我想起 $LITE，大概就是我脑子里在想的这些东西。 我也看到有人试图把像 $AXTI 这种东西建模成有限或稳定复利型 TAM，而不是把它看成扩张或瓶颈博弈——但那是看错了这些细分供应链卡点的方式。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad it’s helpful. When I say $SIVE reminds me of $LITE, this is kinda what I’m thinking about in the back of my mind. I also saw people try to model finite or steady compounding TAM (like $AXTI) rather than expansion or bottleneck game theory, which is the wrong approach for these niche supply chain chokepoints
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提出让 SIVE 沿光子链条扩张 TAM、借资本注入和拆分推进 ELS 模块规模化。
难道 $SIVE 就不能学 $LITE 那样，把 TAM 往 ELS 整个堆栈一路往下扩吗？ 我已经开始想起早期的 $LITE 了（Oclaro、NeoPhotonics、Cloud Light）…… 下面是我的论点/设想： Sivers 如何把大约 300-400 美元的 ELS（来自 50-100 美元的阵列）吃下来，并成长为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 路径大概是： -> Sivers 需要融资。 -> 拿 NRE 预付款或者 PIPE（比如 $AXTI/Northland） -> 直接告诉市场：“$AVGO 和 $LITE 会把你们定制 AI 集群的利润率卡住。” ----> 让 $META / $AMZN / $MSFT 投资注资，来支持未来 ASIC 集群的多来源供应，因为他们会害怕。 尤其是 $NVDA 已经出资 40 亿美元来保障从 $LITE 和 $COHR 的供应……再加上当前 EML 产能瓶颈带来的 PTSD。 其实比大家想的容易。 -> 把光子学业务分拆到美国（市场不喜欢给老牌公司投资）。 - - - - - > 这件事大概率会在 2026 年奏效，因为 CPO / photonics 现在是热潮，而不再是 2024 年到 2025 年初那样。 -> 筹到足够的钱后，自动化晶圆探针机，并给模块 NPI 提供资金。 -> 采用轻资本 fab-lite 测试模型：自建探针卡并内部测试，但把 capex 交给 OSAT。 -> 收购硅光封装 IP（或者继续和 O-Net、$POET 做 JDM）。 -> 保留 Glasgow 的 InP 晶圆厂，用于内部测试、迭代和原始外延。 -> 把光刻、刻蚀等环节外包给 Win Semi 和其他厂商（别自己做重资本环节）。 -> 然后 $SIVE 只要把经过测试的激光器和封装 IP 交给 $FN。 然后就成了。 你拥有了一个独立、可大规模生产、高毛利的 ELS 模块，而 ELSFP 也会成为标准。 之后他们还能做别的事，比如购买 DSP 设计并开始整合技术栈。 不再是每个 10 美元的激光芯片乘 6，做成 50 到 100 美元的激光阵列，而是变成 400 美元的可热插拔模块。 基本上，他们的起点是掌握光子学里激光层面的一个瓶颈护城河…… 然后他们就能像 $LITE 当年那样，往下游做 EML 和光模块。 TLDR： Sivers（$SIVE）在世界正向 CPO 转型的这个时点，持有一个稀缺、独立的 InP 激光瓶颈点。 全球只有少数几家独立公司能做这件事，比如 $SIVE（例如住友、$LITE、$COHR）。 但当然，他们需要资金、需要正确的愿景，才能实现 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Can't $SIVE just pull a $LITE and TAM expansion down the ELS stack? I'm getting early stage $LITE flashbacks (Oclaro, NeoPhotonics, Cloud Light)... Here's my thesis/idea: on how Sivers can capture the ~$300-$400 ELS (from $50-100 arrays) and become a $10B+ company. How this plays out: -> Sivers is needs funding. -> Get NRE prepay or PIPE (eg. $AXTI/Northland) -> Say "Hey, $AVGO and $LITE are going to choke your custom AI cluster margins". ----> get $META / $AMZN / $MSFT capital injection for multi-source supply for next ASIC clusters cause they're scared. Esp. with $NVDA funding $4B to securing supply from $LITE and $COHR... then PTSD from the current EML capacity bottleneck. It's easier than people think. -> US spinoff of photonics arm (markets don't like investing in legacy companies). - - - - - > This will likely work in 2026, bc CPO/photonics is hot, now and not like 2024-early 2025. -> Raise enough to automate wafer probers and fund the module NPI. -> Fab-lite test model: develop probe cards and test inhouse, but push capex to OSATs. -> Buy SiPh packaging IP (or just continue JDM with O-Net and $POET) -> Keep their Glasgow InP fab for in-house testing for iteration/raw epitaxial. -> Outsource lithography, etching, etc. stuff to Win Semi + others (don't do capex heavy things yourself) -> Then just $SIVE can just hand tested lasers and packaging IP to $FN And Poof. You have a independent, mass producible, high margin, ELS module as ELSFP becomes standard. Then they can do other stuff like buying DSP designs and start consolidating the tech stack. Instead of cheap $10 laser dies x 6 for a $50-$100 laser array, you have $400 hot swappable modules. Basically their starting point is owning one of the chokepoints moat in photonics on the laser level... Then they can go downstream like what $LITE did with EML and optical transceivers. TLDR: Sivers ( $SIVE ) holds a rare, independent chokepoint in InP lasers at the exact moment the world is transitioning to CPO. There's only a few independent companies in the world that can do this like $SIVE (eg. Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR). But of course they need the funding to achieve TAM expansion and the right vision.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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对比IREN与SIVE稀释规模，认为SIVE风险回报更优
@Jornka329996 @gude57856 $IREN正在稀释超过60亿美元的股份，却无人关注。$SIVE可能需要稀释1500-2000万美元来扩大连续波(CW)激光业务板块，开始成长为下一个$LITE？风险回报特征对我而言更青睐像$SIVE这样的名字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 @gude57856 $IREN is out there diluting $6B+ and nobody bats an eye. $SIVE could potentially dilute $15M-20M to scale up CW laser segments and start growing into the next $LITE? Risk reward profiles favor names like $SIVE for me.
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分享一个股票配置框架示例：分高增长股、moonshot、安全股、长期国家安全股四层配置
我个人不会仅投资一个行业以分散风险。我提到光子学如$AAOI是因为我认为它有最高的短期上涨空间。但像$NBIS这样的公司，正如Jensen准确所说的，会"照顾好你"的长期表现。也许可以找一些高增长long标的，例如：$ARM - 从新AI CPU获得5倍收入增长；$NBIS - 到第四季度实现7-9B ARR增长带来10倍收入增长；$AAOI - 从光收发器需求获得10倍收入增长；$MRVL - 从$MSFT Maia ASICs获得2-3倍收入增长。选择一两个moonshot：我提到$SIVE是我最喜欢的，但鉴于其规模小，我不会投入太多集中度。然后用一些"更安全的标的"进行杠铃配置：$AMZN长期看涨，即使通过机器人/AI削减运营成本，但其走势像蜗牛；$RDDT长期看涨，因为它利润极高且今天正在产生巨额自由现金流。也许还有一些"超长期玩家"具有深远的国家安全优势，例如：$INTC的"美国制造"；$AMKR的"美国制造"等。这只是一个虚构的例子。
原推 ↗英文原文
I would personally not just invest in one sector for diversification sake. I talk about photonics like $AAOI recently because I see it as highest short-term upside. But others like $NBIS as Jensen accurately said "will take care of you" long term. Maybe figure out high growth longs for example: $ARM - 5x revenue from new AI CPU $NBIS - 10x revenue to q4 $7-9B ARR ramp $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transceiver demand $MRVL - 2-3x revenue ramp from $MSFT Maia ASICs Pick one or two moonshots: I mentioned $SIVE as my favorite, but given it's small size, I wouldn't put too much concentration into them and then barbell with some "safer plays" $AMZN long term I'm bullish on even from robotics/AI cutting opex though it moves like a slug $RDDT long term I'm bullish on from on just because it's ridiculously high profit and generating massive FCF today. and maybe some "long, long term players" that have deep national security benefits eg: $INTC for Made in America $AMKR for Made in America, etc. Just a made up example.
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强调核心是 thesis 和结果，不是仓位美元金额或权威背书。
我不会公开 $RDDT 到 $CRCL 的仓位美元金额，因为那根本不重要。 真正重要的是核心论点 / 想法： 市场里的百分比结果会验证它们，而不是一个组合有多大、美元金额涨了多少（比如 1000 万美元里的 0.01%）。 我之前也对那些在 X 上被嘲笑只有 5000 美元或 25000 美元组合的小创作者说过同样的话。 他们的想法也应该被认真听，而不是看他们有多少钱。 这和我在发布 thesis 时，不会拿自己在 RISC-V 或 AI 实验室发论文的背景来背书是一个道理： 判断依据应该是核心想法。 不是权威。 那些没完没了的噪音最后也把我自己搞得有点受不了，所以我在发 $SIVE 的持仓数字时还是妥协了一次。 实质内容才是关键，我想这也正是我最近账号能涨这么多关注的主要原因。 我也鼓励别人把重心放在这一点上。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don’t post USD values of positions from $RDDT to $CRCL since they’re irrelevant. What matters are the core thesis/ideas: The % outcome in the market validates them, not the size of a portfolio and USD values going up a lot (like .01% of $10M). I’ve said this before as well to any small X content creator who gets made fun of because of a $5K port or $25K port. They should be listened to as well for their ideas, not how much money they have. It’s the same reason I don’t cite my background in RISC-V to publishing papers in AI Labs when I post a thesis: They’re based on the core idea. Not authority. All the endless noise ended up getting to my head so I gave in once posting $SIVE figures. Substance is what matters and I think that’s largely why my account got such a huge following recently. And I encourage others to focus on that as well.
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阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
原推 ↗英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
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惊讶 SIVE 作为 POET 的激光供应商估值只有当时的 1/9。
@FrostByte123456 我不是说我不喜欢 $POET。 我只是很惊讶，你当时把 $POET 的激光供应商 $SIVE 估值，放在了 1/9 的位置。
原推 ↗英文原文
@FrostByte123456 Not saying I don't like $POET. I'm just very surprised you have the laser supplier to $POET in $SIVE at 1/9th the valuation at the time.
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把 HIMX 的下跌当作瓶颈点教训，认为部分光子/光模块标的的 TAM 逻辑更强。
关于 $HIMX 以及它现在已经跌了 31.54%（还被宏观进一步加速）这个点，非常值得肯定。 这对理解瓶颈点是个很好的教训。 他们在这个“meme stock”上忽略了两件事： - 瓶颈点可以被设计绕开。 - 这个瓶颈点也许并不足以真正转化为收入，就像 $AXTI 那样。 而 $AAOI 这边，如果你看的是光模块出货预测，它的 TAM 增量其实非常大，只是他们之前一直偏空。 我也大体上不同意很多光子学标的的判断（比如说 $POET 的估值应该是 $SIVE 激光供应商的 7 倍）。 或者在没有看清楚可选性 + 巨大 TAM 下收入上行的情况下，对 $AAOI 持空。 不过一年后谁对谁错，我们到时候再看。最近整体下跌大多是被宏观加速的，不是说 $SIVE 或 $HIMX 的 thesis 错了。 但确实很有意思，芯片设计公司和分析师们在这些想法上的方向开始走相反路。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro). This is a good lesson around chokepoints. They missed two things on this "Meme Stock": - Chokepoints can be designed out. - Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI. $AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on. Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier). Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM. But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong). But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
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说有一家基金做空整个流通盘 2%，反而让自己买了更多 SIVE。
@Ren_aramb 有家随机的基金把整个流通盘做空了 2%，所以最近的下跌大概就是因此来的。 结果我好像反而又买了更多 $SIVE。 Qube 大概就是算法交易吧，我觉得他们还没意识到这后面会映射到超大规模云厂商的供应链。 https://t.co/voSxCSQWE1
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ren_aramb There's some random firm that shorted 2% of the entire float, hence the recent drop. Ended up just acquiring more of $SIVE as a company off of it I guess. Qube probably algorithmic, don't think they realized upcoming supply chain mapping to hyperscalers yet. https://t.co/voSxCSQWE1
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说 SIVE 市值便宜到自己都想直接收购公司。
@Jornka329996 它当时市值便宜得离谱……我都意识到自己干脆可以把公司直接收了，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 It got so cheap marketcap wise... that I realized I could just acquire the company lol.
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认为 SIVE 在中游超大规模云供应链上执行正常，且自己愿意加入一些需要帮助的董事会。
@miraclemaster07 $SIVE 目前在中游超大规模云厂供应商这条线上执行得挺好。 只是大家还不知道这个名字。 我也愿意去加入 $IQE、$SNAP、$PYPL 的董事会，因为那些公司真的很需要帮助，但它们到底该做什么其实已经很明显了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@miraclemaster07 $SIVE is executing fine right now with all the midstream hyperscaler suppliers. People just don't know about the name yet. Happy to join $IQE, $SNAP, $PYPL boards because those really need help but it's painfully obvious what they need to do.
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说自己更偏好大盘配置，但对 SIVE 的 CW DWB 激光扩张仍有信心。
@joyboydonepiece 对小票分配太多，我一般不推荐——这其实是个聪明的策略。 我个人为了风险管理，也大多把仓位集中在大一些的名字上。 不过我确实相信自己在 $SIVE 上是对的，尤其是它和 Win semi 一起做 CW DWB 激光扩产这件事。
原推 ↗英文原文
@joyboydonepiece Yeah I don't recommend allocating much to smaller names in general, that's a smart strategy. I personally hold most of my concentration in larger names for risk-management too. However, I do believe I'm right with $SIVE with their CW DWB laser scale up with Win semi.
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正式买入 0.5%-1% 的 SIVE，认为其 CW 激光瓶颈被严重低估。
我刚刚买了大约 $SIVE 公司本身 0.5% 到 1% 的股份。 我说过，他们未来在 CW 激光上的瓶颈被严重低估了，所以我也用实际行动证明了我的观点。 尤其是它已经被确认为 Jabil、$MRVL Celestial、O-Net 以及其他超大规模云厂商的光源供应商。 https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
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I just bought ~.5%-1% of $SIVE as a company. I said their future CW laser chokepoint is grossly mispriced. And I put my money where my mouth is. Especially when they're the confirmed light source for Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, O-Net, and other hyperscalers. https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
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说对单发激光器与 WDM 的结论搞错了。
@innovavest 他在关于单发射激光器以及 $LITE 和 $SIVE 的 WDM 这个结论上搞错了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@innovavest He got the conclusion wrong regarding single emitter lasers with $LITE and $SIVE WDM.
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SIVE作为CPO光源瓶颈被低估，2500万市值太低，坚信将成下一个AXTI
这就是为什么在进入交易前需要有信念。如果你了解$SIVE在CW激光领域为Jabil、$MRVL Celestial等共封装光学(CPO)供应，就会明白2.5亿美元市值作为光源瓶颈来说太低了。我们高度相信，一年后这会像$AXTI一样，因为这将是CPO规模化扩展的架构范式。在上涨过程中我不关心波动，因为我对光子学的发展如何演绎有坚定的信念。
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This is why you need to have conviction before entering a trade. If you knew $SIVE positioning in the CW laser space to Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, and others for CPO. $250M MC as the light source chokepoint would be a joke. High confidence we’ll see this end up like $AXTI in a years time since it this will be the architectural paradigm for cpo scale up. Don’t care about volatility in the way up because I have conviction in how this plays out with photonics.
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认为 SOI 很强，而 SIVE 和 AAOI 是自己看好的高成长标的。
@Blinklebloop 同意，$SOI 在所有标的里大概是最强的位置之一。 对我来说，$SIVE 和 $AAOI 是继 $AXTI 之后的高成长火箭船。 这几个名字争议都很大，但我对它们都很有信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blinklebloop Agreed $SOI has arguably one of the strongest positions out of everything. $SIVE and $AAOI were the hypergrowth rocket ships following $AXTI for me. Lot of debate around them but I have conviction in them both
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用 AMD 作为类比，认为 SIVE 的上游光源瓶颈会被市场低估。
回想 AMD 还是 3 美元一股的时候： 当时行业共识是，INTC 会把它留着，只是为了所谓的“垄断”目的，所以它不会被颠覆。 结果 AMD 最后涨了 66 倍，现在市值已经 3300 亿美元以上。 我在 $SIVE 身上也看到同样的东西。 你拿 140 亿美元市值的 Furukawa、190 亿的 $MTSI、550 亿的 $LITE 来比，说它们在位置上比 $SIVE 更好。 但市场实际上已经把这些差异充分体现在市值里了。 很多人没看懂的是：你面前有一家 3 亿美元出头的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL 的被动超大规模云供应链里。 再往下像 Ayar -> $JBL 这样的链条也是一样。 在 3 亿美元市值下，$SIVE 的上行空间巨大，而且风险已经被市场体现得很充分。
原推 ↗英文原文
Back when $AMD was $3 a share: The industry consensus was $INTC was keeping them around just for "monopoly" purposes and they wouldn't be disrupted. $AMD went up 66 times and is now a $330B+ MC. Seeing the same thing with $SIVE. You're comparing $14B companies like Furukawa, $19B with $MTSI, $55B with $LITE and saying they have a better position than $SIVE. It's clearly reflected in the marketcap already. What people misunderstand is that you have a $300m company already designed into captive hyperscaler supply chains in $MRVL. Then ones like Ayar -> $JBL... At a $300m MC. Upside on $SIVE is enormous here, and the risk is reflected in the MC.
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分析 $SIVE 在光子学 CPO CW WDM 供应链中的关键地位，估值 $3 亿相对 $LITE 的 $550 亿市值极具不对称优势。
"没有 Win（赢家）就拼不出 Winner（胜利者）。" "因此：我看多 $SIVE 供应链。" "$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> 超大规模数据中心，作为一个整体流程。" "如果你对比同样处于共封装光学(CPO) CW WDM 领域的 $LITE 等公司。" "原因如下：" "-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial。" "-> Ayar / $JBL 和 O-Net 使用 $SIVE。" "它被设计为超大规模数据中心下一代光子学架构的光源。" "估值约 $3 亿。" "而且我确实认为 WDM DFB 阵列是规模扩展(scale up)的优选架构。且开发难度极高。" "这不是零和博弈的架构之争，如何处理规模扩展(scale out)很可能会与使用单发射器的 $LITE 和 $COHR 分工合作。" "以及像 $MRVL 这样有内部供应链的厂商如何设计他们的架构。" "但如果你比较市值差异（$SIVE 约 $3 亿，$LITE 约 $550 亿）。" "任何人都能看清这个光子学领域 $3.3 亿美元即将到来的颠覆者 $SIVE 价值有多明显。" "尤其是 Win Semi 斥资 $40 亿的晶圆厂承接了来自 $SIVE、$AVGO、$MTSI 等客户的 fabless 激光器规模化生产。" "对于做多这条供应链以及光子学和超大规模数据中心架构发展方向来说，这是高度非对称性的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
You cant spell Winner without Win. Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain. $SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow. If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space. There’s a reason why: -> $POET / $MRVL Celestial. -> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE. It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers. At a ~$300M valuation. And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop. It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR. As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures. But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE). Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space. And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale. It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
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说 SIVE 之前没人知道，且没过很多美国 PE 机构门槛。
@Jornka329996 以前根本没人知道它。 而且 $SIVE 当时也没达到很多美国私募股权机构要求的市值 / 成交量 / 上市门槛。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Nobody knew about it. And $SIVE didn’t pass the MC/volume/listing threshold for a lot of US p/e firms
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纠正对规格的误读，强调不同光子架构的差异。
规格判断是对的，但结论错了。 65mw 是单通道功率，不是总功率，所以当你有 16 个阵列通道时，总功率就超过 1000mw 了。 Ayar / Sive 做的是 WDM，本质上是用多波长阵列，而不是像 $LITE 那样用一个高功率方案。$POET 也是为不同架构设计的，不是单发射器激光器那种。 本质上就是不同架构，所以中游超大规模云供应商才会用 Sivers。
原推 ↗英文原文
Correct on specs. Conclusion is wrong. 65mw is per channel not aggregate, so when you get 16 array channel it’s over 1000 mw. Ayar/Sive does WDM, basically using multi wavelength arrays rather than one high power one like lite. Same with poet designed for instead of single emitter lasers. Just different architectures hence why midstream hyperscaler suppliers use sivers.
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说自己用 IBKR 交易 SIVE 和 Win 等公司。
@buht 我用 $IBKR 来交易像 $SIVE 或 WIN 这样的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@buht $IBKR for companies I mention like $SIVE or WIN
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看多稳懋3105：位于LEO卫星/光学/人形机器人三大高增长领域垄断瓶颈点，战略价值被市场低估。
我在稳懋（Win Semi）(3105.TWO) 4.1B市值时做多。我认为市场忽略了这家全球最重要的晶圆厂之一（在台积电$TSM之外）。我认为他们的战略定位远超40亿美元市值。他们几乎位于所有主要瓶颈点：-> SpaceX Starlink 低轨卫星供应链。-> 作为$AVGO、$LITE、$MTSI、$SIVE的磷化铟(InP)光学收发器晶圆厂。-> 作为人形机器人的身体/眼睛，是用于飞行时间(TOF)激光器的砷化镓(GaAs)晶圆厂，可能用于Boston Dynamic Atlas。-> 来自之前与联发科(MediaTek)/高通(Qualcomm)/$AAPL的业务遗留。但稳懋似乎受到legacy业务的拖累（如$SOI），光学是其最大增长向量之一。然后...稳懋拥有几乎任何晶圆厂中最大的TAM扩张/收入加速：随着：LEO、人形机器人/连续波(CW)激光、800g、1.6t、3.2t光学收发器在未来几年大幅增长。特别是博通(Broadcom)作为其锚定客户（$AVGO持有约5%的稳懋股份）。$NVDA不在乎谁制造激光器，无论是$LITE还是$COHR。他们只在乎是否有足够的供应。供应不够。-> CW激光需求可能呈抛物线增长。（他们制造像$SIVE设计的激光器）-> LEO卫星需求（SpaceX Starlink）可能呈抛物线增长。-> 人形机器人需求可能呈抛物线增长。因为稳懋位于三个最前沿和增长最快行业的半垄断瓶颈点：光子学/AI、机器人/人形机器人和太空。特别是光学TAM爆发：稳懋2027年远期收益大约在35倍范围，我认为这是保守估计，远期估值最终会非常便宜。稳懋将大大受益于TAM扩张和加速的收入增长。当然：稳懋会赢。所以我做多稳懋。
原推 ↗英文原文
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
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说发了 SIVE 帖子后马上就有人问是否卖了。
@veggiepoultry @KaneCapz 我今天才刚发了关于 $SIVE 的帖子，结果已经有人来问我：‘你卖了吗？’ 每一篇我发的帖子下面都这样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@veggiepoultry @KaneCapz I literally posted about $SIVE today and I’m already getting questions: “did you sell?” Underneath every one of my posts
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认为 SIVE 和 AAOI 可能还会继续跌，但如果 ATM 结束会重估。
@Jornka329996 可能是 $SIVE，因为现在跌了 22% 后市值只剩 3.3 亿美元了。 如果 $AAOI 的 2.5 亿美元 ATM 已经结束，也可能是它。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Probably $SIVE since it’s now only $330m after dropping 22%. Maybe $AAOI too, assuming their $250m ATM finished
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光子学全面回撤，但认为这类回撤常是筹码交换时刻，前提是别加杠杆。
光子学现在一点都不好玩。 激光公司里： $LITE、$SIVE、$COHR、$MTSI、$AAOI 全都在跌。 衬底、晶圆厂和外延片公司里： $IQE、$AXTI、$SOI、$TSEM 也全都在跌。 几乎全是红的。 从低 beta 的 Coherent 只有 6% 的跌幅，一直到 22% 都有。 这次最该学到的教训是： 拥抱波动，不要用杠杆。 一只票如果一天能涨 25%，今天也可能跌 20%。 由宏观驱动的流动性真空和止损，会造成非常剧烈的波动。 不过，如果像 $LITE 和 $COHR 这样的公司都已经卖断货到 2028 年…… 或者如果你知道 $SIVE 会是下一个 CW 激光受益者，市值大约只有 3.4 亿美元，而 $AXTI 会变成衬底瓶颈。 那么这类宏观砸盘，往往也是让有能力重新布局的人换手的机会。
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Photonics are not having a fun time. Laser Companies from: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down. Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from: $IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down. Almost everything is red. From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%. Good lesson to learn: Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage. If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today. Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings. However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates. Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.
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分析光收发器PCB供应链瓶颈受益公司，认为激光器瓶颈更具吸引力
所以如果你们关心EML/CW激光器之外的第二个光收发器(optical transceiver)瓶颈： - $SANM（美国） - $TTMI（美国） - WUS Printed Circuit（证交所代码:2316） - Unimicron（证交所代码:3037） - Zhen Ding Tech（证交所代码:4958） - Gold Circuit Electronics（证交所代码:2368） 这些公司是光收发器PCB瓶颈的赢家。 还有一些下游玩家如FIC Global也受益，不过他们更多是做组装而非晶圆厂。 其他公司如Unimicron规模太大，还有ABF基板等其他业务板块，可能感受不到太大差异。 美国公司的机会主要来自供应链回流美国，虽然中国和台湾玩家是主要受益者。 $AVGO的表述： “台湾和中国的PCB供应商都面临产能限制，导致了延迟，”Ramachandran说，但没有点名具体供应商。 我目前没有任何这些股票的多头仓位。 我可能是错的，但我认为激光器瓶颈（$LITE、$SIVE、$MTSI、$COHR、Sumitomo）在光学供应链中对结构性重新定价更有吸引力。
原推 ↗英文原文
So if you care about the second optical transicever bottleneck outside of EML/CW Lasers: - $SANM (US) - $TTMI (US) - WUS Printed Circuit (TPE: 2316) - Unimicron (TPE: 3037) - Zhen Ding Tech (TPE: 4958) - Gold Circuit Electronics (TPE: 2368) Were winners for the optical transceiver PCB bottleneck. There's some downstream players like FIC Global that benefits, not so much as a Fab but assembly. Others like Unimicron are likely too large with other segments like ABF substrates to feel much of a difference. US plays are more-so from reshoring to US supply chains, even though Chinese and Taiwanese players were main beneficaries. $AVGO quote: "Both Taiwanese and Chinese PCB suppliers are facing capacity limits, contributing to the delays, Ramachandran said, without naming the suppliers." I have no open long positions in any of these right now. I could be wrong, but I felt laser chokepoints ( $LITE, $SIVE, $MTSI, $COHR, Sumitomo) in optical supply chains to be much more compelling for structural re-rating.
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把 SIVE 的市值与其下游同业对比，认为短中期还有 2-3B 空间。
@tim_pscl 2-3 亿美元的短期目标放在 $SIVE 上，只是把它和购买其激光器再重新封装的对手公司相比，而那些对手市值已经在 10 亿到 38 亿美元以上。 如果你再看 CW 激光供应商，全球真正公开交易、能做这件事的也就只有几家。
原推 ↗英文原文
@tim_pscl $2-3B short term on $SIVE, just comparing it to counterparties that buy their lasers and repackage it at $1B-$3.8B+ Then if you look at CW laser suppliers, there's only a few in the world publicly traded that can do this.
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指出光子/材料/代工名字普遍在跑赢，而指数其实仍然在跌。
@Alex__0x0 是啊，从 $AAOI、$LITE、$MTSI、$TSEM、$COHR、$AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、Landmark 等这些名字到其他标的，都在明显跑赢！ 有时候你会忘了，其实指数年初至今还跌了 4%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Alex__0x0 Yeah, everything from $AAOI, $LITE, $MTSI, $TSEM, $COHR, $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, Landmark, and others have been strongly outperforming!. Sometimes you forget the index is down -4% YTD.
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认为机构还没充分认识 SIVE 的上游激光瓶颈价值，可能在悄悄吸筹。
$SIVE 这个大约 4 亿美元市值的名字，我是真心相信的…… 机构错过了它作为超大规模云厂商上游激光瓶颈的价值。 看 $TSEM 按我的 thesis 走出来后，股价涨了 70%，市值到了 210 亿美元以上。 散户流不会把 NASDAQ 股票推高 100 多亿美元。 真正做到这一点的是信息发现和信息整合，尤其是在机构也验证并跟进之后。 $SIVE 以前大部分由瑞典散户持有，几乎没有机构投资者。 现在，关于 $MRVL、Ayar、Jabil、O-Net 的上游 CW 激光供应商的信息已经传播开来。 而且最近 $AVGO 和其他一些评论也明确说激光器是供应链里的明确瓶颈： 我强烈认为，机构正在用冰山单、VWAP 算法，或者其他任何方式，从瑞典散户手里吸筹，以便吃到即将到来的 CW 激光瓶颈。 再说一次，最接近 $SIVE 的对标是： $MTSI 和 $LITE，它们市值分别是 180 亿和 550 亿美元。 Sivers 的市值大约只有 4 亿美元。 在光子供应链发生架构范式转变的时候： 我觉得散户难得有机会去抢在机构前面布局 $SIVE，并重仓配置即将到来的 CW / EML 激光瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe... Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers. When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC. Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+. Information discovery and synthesis does. Especially when institutions validate it, and follow along. $SIVE was majority owned by Sweden retail investors, with **almost 0 institutional investors**. Now that information is distributed regarding the Upstream CW laser supplier for $MRVL, Ayar, Jabil, O-Net. And with $AVGO + other comments recently stating lasers were a clear bottleneck for supply chains: I strongly think that institutions are trying to accumulate off Swedish retail hands through Iceberg orders, vwap algos, or any other methods to gain exposure to the upcoming CW laser bottleneck. Again, the closest comparison to $SIVE are: $MTSI and $LITE, both at $18B and $55B MCs. Sivers trades at ~$400m MC. With architectural paradigm shifts in photonic supply chains: I think retail has a rare opportunity to frontrun institutions with $SIVE and have heavy exposure to the upcoming CW/EML laser bottleneck.
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解释 SIVE 大涨的真正催化来自会议确认和光源瓶颈，而不是一条 X 帖子。
所以有深度投资者（像你们），也有交易员（像我）。 投资者往往忽略的是，究竟是什么让像 $SIVE 这样的股票上涨。 对我来说，我把时间点卡在 $NVDA GTC 和 OFC 大会附近，因为 Nvidia 推进 CPO 架构大概率会有新消息。 这波抛物线式上涨的原因是： -> $SIVE 被确认是 O-Net 的光源。 -> $SIVE 又在 OFC 上被确认是 Jabil 的光源。 这些才是我那篇 thesis 发出后最大的催化。 它本来就已经很不对称了，因为还有 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial，以及 Ayar 这一层。 而 Jabil 的可插拔公告正好又和我做多的时间点重合，只是锦上添花。 这不是“发一条 X 帖子，股票就涨 300%”那么简单，事情没那么运作。
原推 ↗英文原文
So there's deep investors (like you), then there's traders (like myself). What investors miss is what causes a stock like $SIVE to go up. For me, I timed it around $NVDA GTC + OFC conference, since there's likely new news around Nvidia pushing CPO architectures. The reason for the parabolic rise is: -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to O-Net. -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to Jabil at OFC. These were the biggest catalysts after my thesis post was announced. It was already asymmetrical due to $POET -> $MRVL Celestial as well as Ayar. But the Jabil plugabble announcement timed with me going long is a cherry on top. It's not just an "X post, stock goes up 300%", doesn't work like that.
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说如果围绕 SIVE、MTSI、LITE 建立自己的 conviction，就会理解估值仍便宜。
@Berlinergy 没错。很多事情归根结底就是理解不够。 如果人们能围绕 $SIVE、$MTSI、$LITE 这些名字建立起自己的信念，看到 EML / CW 的瓶颈会有多严重。 那等你看到它们已经涨了 125%+ 的时候，你还是会觉得它们被低估了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Berlinergy Exactly. Lot of things come just a lack of understanding. If people developed their own conviction around names like $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE if they saw how severe the EML/CW bottleneck is going to be. Then when you see a 125%+ increase, you would still think it's undervalued.
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认为 SIVE 和 IQE 可能都能成为 10 倍股。
@_Livesofourdays 是啊，$SIVE 和 $IQE 对我个人来说都有可能成为 10 倍股。 很期待看看它们最后会走到哪里。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_Livesofourdays Yeah $SIVE and $IQE are both possible 10x’s for me personally. Excited to see where they head
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认为 SIVE 是光学激光瓶颈的最高暴露标的，已经是多家供应商的 CW 光源。
@NBA_GSW_30 我真的很喜欢 $SIVE，它是光学激光瓶颈里最有暴露度的标的！ 它们已经是 Jabil、Ayar、Marvell Celestial、O-Net 等很多供应商的 CW 光源。 而且我觉得这家公司还有很长的路要走。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NBA_GSW_30 I really like $SIVE as the highest exposure to the optical laser bottleneck! They’re already the CW light source for many suppliers like Jabil, Ayar, Marvell Celestial, O-Net. And I think the company has a long way to go
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强调自己靠信息发现和机构验证提前抓到多只大涨股，并反问为何现在还被质疑。
我在想…… 无论是 $AXTI、$IQE 还是 $SIVE。 还有我做多的很多其他光子学赢家，比如 $LITE，过去几个月回报都是 100% 到 1000%。 那些酸的人什么时候才会承认…… 我的 thesis 其实就是对的。为什么还要贬低它？ 像 $TSEM 这种市值 200 亿美元以上的公司，不会在两周内涨 70%，除非机构验证了 thesis 并觉得它有说服力。 $AXTI 也是一样，除非机构觉得它有说服力，否则不会从 4.5 亿美元市值一路涨到 38.5 亿美元。 我只是比别人更早发现这些东西，并做信息整合 / 信息发现。 在这些案例里，散户明显先于机构行动，而且赚到了改变人生的收益。 如果 thesis 是错的，机构可以站在交易的另一边。可他们并没有这么做。 X 上所有人都在问下一个 1000% 在哪。 而当有人在 X 上免费发出多个想法， 在价格还没动之前就明确给出方向性交易， -> 然后它们像 $AXTI 一样真的涨了 10 倍： 得到的却是诽谤？ 也许你该想一想……是不是 thesis / idea 本来就是对的？
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m curious… With $AXTI, $IQE, or $SIVE. And the many other photonics winners I’ve longed like $LITE that returned 100-1000% over the past few months. When is it time for the salty folks out there to admit… That my thesis are just right after all. Instead of downplaying it? $20B+ companies like $TSEM don’t just move up 70% in 2 weeks, unless institutions validated the thesis and found it compelling. Same with $AXTI, it wouldn’t have ran from $450M MC to $3.85B MC unless institutions found it compelling. I just spot these before others do, and post information synthesis/discovery. In these cases, retail has clearly frontrun institutions and made life changing returns. If the thesis were wrong, institutions can take the other end of the trade. Which they don’t. Everyone on X keeps asking for the next 1000%. And when there’s someone out there on X that posts multiple (for free) ideas. Posts a clear directional trade before the price even moved. -> then they do ~10x like $AXTI: They’re met with slander instead? Ever stop to think… maybe the thesis/idea was right after all?
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说自己对 SIVE 高信念，同时也看好 ARM、AAOI。
@Jornka329996 谢谢！$SIVE 对我个人来说是高信念标的。即便现在市值大概只有 4 亿美元左右，我也是这么看。 $ARM 和 $AAOI 这种价位下，长期看起来也很有潜力！ 这周我还在看另外两家大盘公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Thanks! $SIVE is high conviction for me personally. Even so at these levels around ~$400m MC. $ARM and $AAOI seems promising long term at these levels too! I did have two more large cap companies I'm looking at this week.
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博主称买入的股票都能大涨，如$ARM买后像$TSEM、$SIVE次日涨20%
我告诉你们...即使我买入像$ARM这样市值1700亿美元的公司，它们第二天也会像$TSEM或$SIVE一样涨20%吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm telling you guys... Even if I buy small cap $170 Billion dollar companies like $ARM. They just go up 20% like $TSEM or $SIVE the next day as well? https://t.co/ULZkv65d27
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认为机构开始意识到 SIVE 在 CW/EML 瓶颈中的重要性，自己仍看它是下一个十倍。
当机构开始意识到 $SIVE 在 CW / EML 激光瓶颈里的重要性时，真是有种“TFW”的感觉。 但他们手里却没有仓位…… Sivers 到现在已经涨了 220%+，但我预计它会成为我下一个像 $AXTI 那样的个人 10 倍股。 https://t.co/DmqpkZ8Lqa
原推 ↗英文原文
TFW institutions realize how important $SIVE is in the CW/EML laser bottleneck. But have no positions… Sivers is up 220%+ so far, but I expect this to be my next personal 10x like $AXTI. https://t.co/DmqpkZ8Lqa
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说 SIVE 在瑞典交易所，想买的人会受限。
@bennybigbull $SIVE 需要瑞典那边的交易权限。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bennybigbull $SIVE needs trading permissions in Sweden
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说感谢别人的决定，自己只是分享 thesis 和 conviction。
@MildBullyMMA 这是你自己做的决定，不用谢我！ 我只是一路分享我自己的 thesis 和我自己的 conviction。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MildBullyMMA You made the decision yourself, don't thank me! I'm just sharing my own thesis and my own conviction around $SIVE along the way.
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分析Sivers被收购的可能性及CHIPS Act对半导体收购的监管影响
@TGodTracer 哦，100%的公司都会想收购Sivers。他们是世界上少数几家像$MTSI这样能做到这一点的公司之一。 但收购可能会被阻止，因为$SIVE对欧洲和美国都至关重要，涉及国家安全（CHIPS Act受援企业）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TGodTrader Oh 100% companies would want to acquire Sivers. They're one of the few companies in the world like $MTSI that can do this. But acquisitions might be blocked since $SIVE is central to national security for both Europe and US (CHIPS Act recipient).
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认为 SIVE 估值仍极小，重估空间很大。
@Ayouubb_ $SIVE 现在的市值大概还只有 4.2 亿美元，在这个瓶颈里的位置下，这简直小得离谱。 我觉得它的重估空间真的很大。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ayouubb_ $SIVE is still only ~$420m MC which is hilariously small given their positioning in this bottleneck. There's just so much room to be rerated imo.
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$SIVE是极少数纯光激光瓶颈投资标的，估值仅4亿美元却已切入超大规模云服务商供应链。
$SIVE简直是世界上少数几个纯正的公共投资渠道，直接暴露在（CW/EML）光学激光瓶颈中。 $LITE - 550亿美元+ $COHR - 530亿美元+ $MTSI - 178亿美元+ $AAOI - 88亿美元 $SIVE - 4亿美元 你几乎从来没见过这种情况... 真的震惊于有一家像Sivers这样的小型公司存在。它已经通过Jabil、Marvell Celestial、O-Net、Ayar等公司成为超大规模云服务商的合格供应商。 这是我见过的市场上最大的结构性缺口之一。 我预计市场会像$AXTI一样每天重新定价这件事，随着越来越多的机构开始意识到这一点。 （引用内容）： $SIVE一定是我在这个市场里见过的除了$AXTI之外上涨空间最大的股票？ 市场不可能错过Jabil、Marvell（通过$POET的Celestial）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有$NVDA和联发科支持）所用的CW激光光源... 估值只有1.4亿美元（现在是3.5亿美元）。 不仅能获得最直接的激光敞口，用于未来的CPO规模化？ 还有这个周期的1.6T可插拔模块，与$JBL（前英特尔硅光子部门）即将推出的产品合作。 稳懋(Win Semi)需要为超大规模云服务商供应链扩大桥接产能。 99.9%的人还没意识到这件事的规模之大。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is literally one of the only pure play public exposure to the (CW/EML) optical laser bottlenecks in the world. $LITE - $55B+ $COHR - $53B+ $MTSI - $17.8B+ $AAOI - $8.8B $SIVE- $400M You basically almost never see this... Genuinely shocked there's a small cap company out there like Sivers... That already is a qualified supplier to hyperscaler supply chains through Jabil, Marvel Celestial, O-Net, Ayar and others. This is one of the largest structural gaps in the market I've seen. I expect the market to keep repricing this every day like $AXTI as more institutions begin to realize this.
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说 SIVE 因在瑞典交易所，很多人买不到；早买的人会很开心。
@PhotonCap 对啊，很多人买不到 $SIVE，因为它在瑞典交易所…… 但那些早期买到的人，接下来几个月大概率会很开心。
原推 ↗英文原文
@PhotonCap Yeah, lot of people can't buy $SIVE because it's in a Swedish exchange... But people who did early are likely going to have a fun time over the next few months.
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$SIVE 估值洼地，兼具CPO激光和1.6T可插拔光模块双重赛道，上涨空间极大
$SIVE 一定是我在这个市场里见过的相对于 $AXTI 而言上涨空间最大的股票了吧？市场不可能错过 CW 激光光源这条赛道——客户包括 Jabil、Marvell（通过 $POET 的 Celestial 项目）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有 $NVDA 和联发科支持）……而估值才 1.4 亿美元（现在是 3.5 亿了）。你不仅能获得对未来共封装光学(CPO)规模扩张最直接的激光业务敞口，还能获得本轮周期 1.6T 可插拔光模块业务敞口——$JBL（前身为英特尔硅光子业务部门）的产品即将推出。此外，稳懋半导体(Win Semi)的代工产能扩张对于超大规模云厂商的供应链也至关重要。我认为 99.9% 的人还没有意识到这件事的规模有多大。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE has gotta be the highest upside stock I’ve seen in this market since $AXTI? No way markets missed the CW laser light source for Jabil, Marvell (Celestial via $POET), O-Net, Ayar ( $NVDA, Mediatek backed)… At a $140M valuation. ($350m now) Not only do you get the most direct laser exposure to future CPO scale up? But also this cycle’s 1.6T pluggables with $JBL (formerly Intel Silicon Photonics division) coming soon. With Win Semi bridge capacity scaling needed for hyperscaler supply chains. Don’t think 99.9% of people realized the sheer scale of this yet.
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认为像 NVIDIA 生态中，直接 GPU/激光供应商往往比更下游公司更受益。
@QuantumDom 这有点像 $NVDA，整个生态链都在，但有时候受益最大的反而是直接的 GPU 或激光供应商，比如 $SIVE 或 $LITE。 而不是 $POET、$FN 这类公司。 当然也有一些高毛利的例外，比如 Eoptolink。
原推 ↗英文原文
@QuantumDom It’s like $NVDA, there’s a whole ecosystem but sometimes the largest beneficiary is the direct GPU or Laser supplier like $SIVE or $LITE. Instead of the $POET, $FN type companies. There’s some high margin exceptions like Eoptolink
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引用 Broadcom 讲话，强调激光是半导体瓶颈，应优先布局 CW/EML 与晶圆厂。
每个行业领导者…… 尤其是今天这段话里 $AVGO（Physical Layer Products 部门）。 他们提到激光是半导体的瓶颈。 如果你还没多头布局…… -> CW 激光：$SIVE | $MTSI -> EML 激光：$COHR | $LITE -> 或者它们的晶圆厂：$TSEM / Win Semi 也许是时候醒醒了？ Broadcom 的 Ramachandran 说： “虽然现在行业里有多个供应商……但激光领域确实存在明确的供给约束。”
原推 ↗英文原文
Every industry leader... Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today. Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors. If you aren't long... -> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI -> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE -> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi Maybe it's time to wake up? Broadcom Ramachandran: "Even though there are multiple suppliers in the industry today... there is definitely a supply constraint in the laser space,”
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说对方从十几美元就跟踪 AXTI，现在又想分享更有吸引力的 SIVE 和 TSEM。
@beauty_oe 你也从十几美元的时候就开始跟踪 $AXTI 了吧！它涨成这样真的很厉害。 现在这个价位有点偏高了，所以我也想分享一些估值上可能更有吸引力的其他名字，比如 $SIVE 和 $TSEM。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe あなたも10ドル台から $AXTI をカバーしていましたよね！あそこまで上昇したのは本当に見事です。 今の水準だと少し高値圏にあるので、バリュエーション的にもっと魅力的かもしれない $SIVE や $TSEM といった他の銘柄もシェアしておきたいと思いました。
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AAOI在光收发器超级周期中拥有巨大的重新估值潜力，其美国本土完整供应链是核心优势。
如果你是$AAOI的新手： 在 ATH 附近以 $109 进场看起来很吓人，毕竟今年已涨了 175%。 然而，这看起来就像是光子学领域的 $SNDK。 而碰巧的是，光收发器超级周期的中心... 在 $8.2B 估值下，我们可以看看预测： （预计产能 * 平均售价预测） 2026年Q2：~$312.1M 2026年Q4：~$1.41B 2027年Q2：~$1.53B 2027年Q4：~$1.97B 如果$AAOI最终在营收上超越了 $55B 的 $LITE... $8B 市值对于这种收入增长来说看起来有点荒谬，利润率可达 30-40%... 重新估值潜力是巨大的。 最坏的情况如果内部激光晶圆厂失败，就得从 $COHR 采购。 或者最终成为一个美国制造版的 Innolight / Eoptolink（两家都是 $66B-$90B+ 的中国公司）？ 在美国建立完整供应链的选择权被低估了。 $AAOI 是我少数高度看多的标的之一，除了 $SIVE 和 $LITE，如果他们能兑现预测的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're new to $AAOI: It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase. However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK. And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle... At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections: (est. Capacity * ASP Projections) Q2 2026: ~$312.1M Q4 2026: ~$1.41B Q2-2027: ~$1.53B Q4-2027: ~$1.97B If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue... $8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins… Re-rating potential is enormous. Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR. Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)? The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated. $AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
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解释IBKR数据问题导致只能市价买入某只股票。
@RitwikBobbili 是 $SIVE SFB。IBKR 上的数据没有显示出来，所以我只能以市场价买入。
原推 ↗英文原文
@RitwikBobbili It's $SIVE SFB. The data on $IBKR doesn't show up so I just ended up market buying.
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回顾 AXTI 10 倍成功后，列出 SIVE、AAOI、VNP、SOI 等下一批高信念供应链标的。
所以我的 10 倍 Moonshot $AXTI 最后真的飞到了月球。 如果你觉得自己错过了火箭： -> $SIVE 是我现在最喜欢的下一个 AXT 式 10 倍 Moonshot。 -> $AAOI 自从我提到之后已经涨了 4 倍，但我还是觉得它从现在这个位置还能再涨 4 倍。 如果你想玩得更稳一点： -> $VNP 是西方版本的 $AXTI -> $SOI 是硅光 / CPO 版本的 $AXTI，但它还没真正起量。 -> $IQE 更偏向重组后的二元结果。 -> $TSEM、$LITE、$COHR 则是更稳的复利型标的。 我之前还没怎么提过 $VNP（5N Plus），但它确实是西方供应链里最重要的公司之一，是 $AXTI 的对照面。 它主要供应：铟、锗、镓、碲、铋。也供应 LEO 卫星太阳能电池，以及光子学的衬底 feedstock。 市场里永远还有更多机会！
原推 ↗英文原文
So my 10x moonshot $AXTI ended up landing on the moon. If you felt like you missed the rocket: -> $SIVE is my personal favorite next 10x AXT moonshot at today's prices. -> $AAOI already up 4x since I've mentioned it, but I still think it can 4x again from these levels. If you want to play a bit safer: -> $VNP is the Western $AXTI -> $SOI is the $AXTI for silicon photonics/CPO, but it hasn't really ramped up yet. -> $IQE is more binary based on restructuring. -> $TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders. I haven’t mentioned $VNP (5N Plus) much yet but it’s genuinely one of the most important companies in Western supply chains as the counterbalance to $AXTI. Basically it supplies: indium, germanium, gallium, tellurium, bismuth. Solar cells for LEO. Substrate feedstock for photonics. There's always more opportunities in the market!
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说 AXTI 已到 69.69 传奇位阶，Axt 估值虽贵但对 AI 供应链有价值。
$AXTI 现在已经到了传奇的 69.69 价位。 我原本期待的是一年半接近 10 倍的回报，而不是几个月就到位…… 从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，几乎所有东西都在疯狂跑赢。 至于 AXT 按 40 亿美元市值来算？是不是贵了。是。 超大规模云厂商会不会为了确保自己的 AI 构建去付 100 亿美元？会。 很多这种瓶颈，根本不能用传统估值指标来定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI has now reached the legendary status of $69.69. Was expecting close to 10x returns in a year and half, not a few months… Everything from $AAOI to $SIVE are ridiculously outperforming. As for AXT valuations at $4B? Is it overvalued. Yes. Would hyperscalers pay $10B to secure their AI buildout? Yes. Lot of these bottlenecks can’t be valued with traditional metrics.
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股价短期波动不改变投资论点，应保持信念不被宏观因素左右。
我不喜欢这类帖子，但今天我还是再发一次： 当像$SOI这样的股票下跌6%，并回吐了本周大部分涨幅时： 关于SOI基板在硅光子学(silicon photonics)/共封装光学(CPO)领域达到垄断级别的投资论点没有任何改变。 不幸的是，大盘指数（巴黎证券交易所指数）本月暴跌9%，而且还在继续下跌。 而伊朗战争带来的更广泛宏观因素又进一步压低了很多股票。 我提到的每一只股票，比如$AXTI，不会直线上涨，但它们往往是强劲的超越大盘的标的。 如果我的投资论点发生实质性变化，我会发帖说明。 但如果股价下跌是因为宏观因素，或者在上涨400%后如$AAOI那样的轻微回调。 或者$SIVE在上周五暴跌16%然后周一又反弹35%…… 短期股价不会改变投资论点。 它也不应该改变你的信念。 特别是对于这些股票，如果我一段时间没有提到它们，比如$IQE，那只是处于重组或资产出售的等待期。或者$NBIS正处于其悄无声息的建设期，为Q4营收的爆发式增长做准备。 这类表现有时是宏观环境的副产品。 但如果它们能在一周内下跌10%，它们也能在一周内上涨10%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again: When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week: Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed. Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down. And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names. Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers. I’ll post if my thesis materially changed. But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI. Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday… Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis. And it shouldn’t to your conviction either. Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp. Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro. But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.
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强调 SIVE 给 Jabil 的 1.6T 供光已被 OFC 确认，并非猜测。
@siv_s7 这不是猜测？$SIVE 为 Jabil 1.6T 供光这件事已经在 OFC 上被确认了。 这还不包括 Ayar、$POET Celestial，以及其他 CPO 玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
@siv_s7 It’s not speculation? $SIVE powering Jabil 1.6T is confirmed from OFC. This is not even including Ayar, $POET Celestial, and other CPO players.
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说如果自己做 PE，会立刻用 3000 万买 10-15% 的 SIVE。
@IkaKnight_ 我的意思是，如果我是私募基金，我会立刻用 3000 万美元买下 $SIVE 的 10% 到 15%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@IkaKnight_ I mean if I ran a P/E firm I'd personally buy 10-15% of $SIVE right away with $30m.
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认为瑞典媒体在把当地散户吓出 SIVE，结果把筹码转移给更懂供应链的美国投资者。
我真的觉得很有意思…… 你会看到像《Privata Affärer》这样的瑞典本地媒体，几乎没有先进半导体背景： 却在把这家公司大部分持股的瑞典本地散户吓出 $SIVE。 它大概是他们国家里市值最高的上行空间科技股，市值大约 3.2 亿美元。 然后这些仓位就转到了更懂超大规模云 CPO / photonics 供应链的美国投资者手里。 本地媒体居然在替美国投资者干活？ 谢谢？
原推 ↗英文原文
I honestly find it amusing... You have Swedish local journalists like "Privata Affarer" with no background in advanced semis: Scaring the company's majority-owned local Swedish retail investors out of their $SIVE positions. Probably the highest upside tech-stock in their country at ~$320m MC. And transferring positions to US investors who understand hyperscaler CPO/photonics supply chains better. The local media is doing all the work for American investors? Thanks?
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调侃大银行分析师得修正 IBKR/HOOD 业绩预期，因为有人在 X 上研究海外标的。
我们居然活在这样一个世界里， 大银行的股票分析师…… 可能得修正 $IBKR 或 $HOOD 的盈利预测。 因为 X 上一个普通人却在看像 $SIVE、$IQE、Macronix、海力士、Unimicron 这种 Robinhood 或美国券商根本买不到的国际股票。 真是个疯狂的时代。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s hilarious we live in a world: Where equity analysts at major banks… Might need to adjust their estimates for $IBKR or $HOOD earnings. Because a random person on X liked international equities like $SIVE, $IQE, Macronix, SK Hynix, Unimicron, and others not available on Robinhood or US brokerages. What a wild timeline.
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将卫星周期和光子超级周期对比，认为后者更能支撑收入和盈利增长。
这里有一个太空卫星超级周期： -> 由 $PL 触发。 随后 $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR 等跟上。 然后还有光子超级周期： -> 由 $LITE 和 $COHR 触发。 随后 $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI 等跟上。 前者是对太空应用的炒作。 后者是对 AI 带来的极端收入和盈利增长的炒作。 后者通常更容易被证明是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle: -> Triggered by $PL. With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following. Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle: -> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR. With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following. One is hype over applications from Space. The other is hype over extreme revenue and earnings growth from AI. The latter tends to be more defensible.
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希望 SIVE 能像 AXTI 一样成功，自己 AXTI 已经涨 800%+。
@ResonantCapital 我也希望 $SIVE 能做到。我的 $AXTI 仓位现在已经涨了 800%+。 https://t.co/hZH404W4Ry
原推 ↗英文原文
@ResonantCapital I hope $SIVE does. My $AXTI positions are now up 800%+ https://t.co/hZH404W4Ry
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强调 SIVE 通过 CHIPS Act 和国安项目对美国很重要，并给出更高估值判断。
如果你到现在还不知道，$SIVE 通过 CHIPS 法案对美国国家安全很重要。 而且尤其是，它还是超大规模云 AI 供应链的光源。 到目前为止，他们已经拿了大约 1160 万美元的两笔 CHIPS 法案资助： 1. 和 $ERIC 以及 Raytheon $RTX 一起做 FR3 beamformer ICs 2. 和 $BA（LSE）BAE Systems 一起做 EW 技术 CEO 还暗示 2026 年会有更多来自 CHIPS 的资金。 小盘股几乎从来拿不到美国政府这种支持。 你手里有一家市值 3.3 亿美元的公司： 它对美国半导体业务的国家安全至关重要， 也对超大规模云供应链（$MSFT、$META、$AMZN、$ORCL 等）里的光子学至关重要， 通过 $MRVL Celestial、Ayar、Jabil、ONet 等链条。 关于扩产和 capex 的问题，现在已经由 Win Semi 合作基本回答了。 至于“等待 CPO”的机会成本，现在也被 OFC 上 Jabil 1.6T 可插拔模块放量这件事回答了。 $SIVE 是光子学里最被低估的宝石之一，我个人认为它今天就应该值 20 亿美元以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you didn't know by now $SIVE is important to US national security via CHIPS act. But especially, as the light source for hyperscaler AI supply chains. They got two CHIPS acts grants ~$11.6M so far: 1. FR3 beamformer ICs with $ERIC and Raytheon $RTX. 2. EW Tech with $BA (LSE) BAE Systems With more coming funding from CHIPS in 2026 hinted by the CEO. Small caps almost never get this sort of support from the US government. You have a company sitting at $330M: That's critical to US National Security for their Semi arm. and Critical to Hyperscaler supply chains ( $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL, etc) for Photonics through $MRVL Celestial, Ayar, Jabil, ONet, and others... The main question regarding scale vs. capex is now answered by Win Semi partnership. And the question regarding "CPO waiting" opportunity cost is now answered by the Jabil 1.6T pluggable ramp from OFC. $SIVE of the most unknown gems in the photonics space and I personally think this company should be $2B+ today.
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列出多项 CHIPS Act 资助名单，并强调国家安全和政府资金的重要信号。
美国 CHIPS Act 资金是最大的信号之一。 对美国国家安全的重要性。 不太出名的名单： 1. $SIVE（3.3 亿美元） 2. $AKTS（9.2 亿美元） 3. $BLG（3400 万美元） 4. $QUBT（16.5 亿美元） 5. $RGTI（52.7 亿美元） 6. $MRAM（2.1 亿美元） 7. $SKYT（已被收购） 8. $PDFS（13.5 亿美元） 9. $ATOM（1.77 亿美元） 10. $SLVC（2.27 亿美元） 11. $NVTS（21.2 亿美元） 12. $WOLF（7.5 亿美元） 13. $ALMU（2.34 亿美元） 14. $ACLS（26 亿美元） 直接资助 | DoC CHIPS PMTs： 1. $WOLF（Wolfspeed）：7.5 亿美元 2. $INFN（Infinera）：9300 万美元（DoC PMT）- 后来被 Nokia 收购 3. $SKYT（SkyWater Technology）：1600 万美元（DoC PMT）- 后来被 IonQ 收购 直接资助 | 联邦研发合同： 4. $RGTI（Rigetti Computing）：1128 万美元（AFRL / 量子网络与 AFOSR 芯片 fab） 5. $QUBT - DoC / NIST 针对 TFLN PICs 的直接合同 国防微电子 / 分包商： 6. $SIVE：1160 万美元（NEMC Hub） 7. $MRAM - 870 万美元项目合作方（通过 SCMC Hub 的“CHEETA”项目） 8. $ACLS - 780 万美元合作项目（由 GE Aerospace 通过 CLAWS 领导） 9. $BLG - 650 万美元（迄今通过 CLAWS Hub 获得的国防分包） 10. $AKTS - 400 万美元（NEMC 项目“LADDER”的主导资助） 关联公司： 11. $ATOM：SWAP Hub 成员 12. $NVTS：SCMC Hub 的嵌入式合作方 13. $PDFS：CA DREAMS Hub 的行业合作方 14. $ALMU：CA DREAMS 和 MMEC Hubs 的附属成员 -> 电磁战（EW）：在 6 个项目中合计分配了 5100 万美元。 -> AI 硬件：在 7 个项目中合计分配了 4200 万美元。 -> 5G/6G 无线通信：在 5 个项目中合计分配了 4200 万美元。 -> 商业跃迁技术：在 7 个项目中合计分配了 3800 万美元。 -> 量子技术：在 4 个项目中合计分配了 3200 万美元。 -> 安全边缘计算 / IoT：在 4 个项目中合计分配了 2500 万美元。 提醒一下： 对美国技术重要，并不等于就是好投资（比如 Wolfspeed）。 我只是研究了一下 $SIVE 的 CHIPS Act 资助，然后顺手看看还有哪些较不知名的公司也拿了补助或成了受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
US Chip ACT Funding is one of the largest signals. For importance to America National Security. Lesser known list: 1. $SIVE ($330m) 2. $AKTS ($920m) 3. $BLG ($34m) 4. $QUBT ($1.65B) 5. $RGTI ($5.27B) 6. $MRAM ($210m) 7. $SKYT (Acquired) 8. $PDFS ($1.35B) 9. $ATOM ($177M) 10. $SLVC ($227M) 11. $NVTS ($2.12B) 12. $WOLF ($750m) 13. $ALMU ($234m) 14. $ACLS ($2.6B) DIRECT FUNDING | DoC CHIPS PMTs: 1. $WOLF (Wolfspeed): $750 Million 2. $INFN (Infinera): $93 Million (DoC PMT) - Bought by Nokia 3. $SKYT (SkyWater Technology): $16 Million (DoC PMT) - Bought by IonQ DIRECT FUNDING | Federal R&D Contracts: 4. $RGTI (Rigetti Computing): $11.28M (AFRL/quantum networking and AFOSR Chip fab) 5. $QUBT - Direct DoC/NIST contract for TFLN PICs DoD Microelectronics / Sub-Contractors 6. $SIVE: $11.6 Million (NEMC Hub) 7. $MRAM - $8.7 Million project partner ("CHEETA" project via SCMC Hub) 8. $ACLS - $7.8M partner project (Led by GE Aerospace via CLAWS) 9. $BLG - $6.5M (DoD sub-contracts secured to date via CLAWS Hub) 10. $AKTS - $4 Million (Lead grant for the "LADDER" project via NEMC) Adjacents: 11. $ATOM: Member of the SWAP Hub 12. $NVTS: Embedded partner in the SCMC Hub 13. $PDFS: industry partner in the CA DREAMS Hub 14: $ALMU: affiliate member in the CA DREAMS and MMEC Hubs -> Electromagnetic Warfare (EW): $51 million allocated across 6 projects. -> Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hardware: $42 million allocated across 7 projects. -> 5G/6G Wireless Communications: $42 million allocated across 5 projects. -> Commercial Leap-Ahead Technologies: $38 million allocated across 7 projects. -> Quantum Technology: $32 million allocated across 4 projects. -> Secure Edge Computing / IoT: $25 million allocated across 4 projects. Just a warning: Being important to US technology (eg. Wolfspeed) does not translate to being a good investment. Was just doing research into $SIVE CHIPS act funding and decided to see what other lesser known companies got grants or were beneficaries too.
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认为新瓶颈 / 卡点无法用线性收入模型预测，只能基于供应链位置做主观判断。
像 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 这种新的瓶颈 / 卡点，前瞻收入根本没法建模。 你只能拿它跟龙头、它们的客户去做估值比较，再根据它在供应链里的位置做一个主观判断，比如 Jabil 的 1.6T transceiver、Ayar -> AI 芯片、$MRVL Celestial，或者更多还没公开的客户。 任何分析师如果说自己能准确建模收入放量路径，那基本都是在胡扯，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's impossible to model forward revenue for new bottlenecks/chokepoints like $AXTI or $SIVE. It's valuation comparison to leaders, their customers, then just making a discretionary estimate on where it heads based on positioning (eg. Jabil 1.6T transceivers, Ayar -> Ai Chip, $MRVL celestial, and maybe more undisclosed customers). Any analyst who tries to model an accurate projection of revenue ramp is just giving BS lol.
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Jabil采用$SIVE光源的1.6T可插拔模块填补了等待CPO的空窗期。
@lxjourney_ Jabil的1.6T光收发器(pluggables)使用$SIVE作为光源。 之前你必须等待CPO(共封装光学)方案，但现在有了一家最大的光子学厂商之一——继承了$INTC(英特尔)的部门，拥有超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)终端用户，填补了等待的空窗期。
原推 ↗英文原文
@lxjourney_ Jabil 1.6T transceivers for pluggables using $SIVE as the light source. Before you had to wait for CPO but now you have one of the largest photonics players that inherited $INTC's division with hyperscaler end-users, bridging the waiting gap.
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称 SIVE 是小盘光子学里最有吸引力的名字，远超其他可重估公司。
$SIVE 是小盘光子学领域里最有说服力的名字，我个人会继续把更多仓位集中到它上面。 我知道还有别的名字看起来也被低估、可能会重估得更高，但你不会从它们那里拿到像 CW 激光瓶颈那样的 10 倍空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling name in the small-cap photonics sector, and I'd personally just put more concentration into that. I'm aware of the other names that look undervalued and could get re-rated higher, but you won't get 10x upside like you would with CW laser chokepoints.
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认为 SIVE 作为 CW 激光瓶颈，按同行估值应明显高于当前市值。
我老是被问： $SIVE 的目标价是多少？它就是一家 3.2 亿美元市值的公司，能跑多远？ 它是关键的 CW 激光公司，也是光子学里下一个瓶颈。 最接近的对标是 $MTSI 的 170 亿美元市值。 然后是 $LITE 的 519.7 亿美元市值。 我觉得它今天就应该交易在 20 到 30 亿美元。 但它现在只有 3.2 亿美元。 这种巨大的估值差距，说明它一旦放量，潜在上行空间非常大。
原推 ↗英文原文
I keep getting asked: What's the PT of $SIVE? It's a $320m MC company, how far can it run? It’s a critical CW laser company, the next chokepoint in photonics. Closest comparison is $MTSI is $17 Billion. Then $LITE at $51.97 Billion. I think it should trade at $2-3B, today. Yet it’s $320 million. The sheer valuation gap points to massive upside when it scales.
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用一句话概括 CW 激光从 SIVE 到 MTSI 的链条。
@KiroIkigai CW 激光这条链就是 $SIVE 到 $MTSI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KiroIkigai Cw lasers with $SIVE to $MTSI
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认为在 Jabil 公告后 SIVE 应值 20-30 亿美元，如今仍只有约 3.35 亿。
@ThatIsIt11 我个人认为，在 Jabil 公告之后，$SIVE 今天就应该值 20 到 30 亿美元。 而现在它大概只在 3.35 亿美元附近。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ThatIsIt11 I personally think $SIVE should be valued at $2-3B today after the Jabil announcement. Right now it’s sitting at ~$335m
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高信念看好 SIVE，认为体量更大后机构会成为核心持有人。
我对 $SIVE 的未来有很高的信念！ 我确实认为，一旦市值再大一点（加上成交量），很多机构也会有能力成为核心持有人，从而支持它的成长。 我也收到了很多反馈，说基金目前还因为一些 mandate 的限制没法买进。
原推 ↗英文原文
I have high conviction in $SIVE future! I do think once the market cap gets a tad larger (with volume), many institutions would be able to be core holders as well to support the growth. Getting a lot of feedback from that funds aren’t able to buy in just due to certain mandates so far.
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澄清$SIVEF为美股OTC交易，对应瑞士市场的$SIVE
@RJNavarrete $SIVEF在美国场外交易市场(OTC)交易，换句话说就是瑞士交易所的$SIVE
原推 ↗英文原文
@RJNavarrete $SIVEF is US OTC, otherwise it’s $SIVE on Switzerland’s exchange
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说 SIVE 是自己的下一步。
@Igosuki $SIVE 是我的下一步……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Igosuki $SIVE is my next play…
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$SIVE激光供应商市值仅3亿，却对标百亿级$LITE，上涨空间巨大
$SIVE 正在重演我的 $AXTI 论点第十版吗？ 现在已上涨三倍。 说真的，市场怎么会错过这个？ -> 作为 Jabil 的激光供应商……用于当前超级周期中的 1.6T 可插拔光收发器。 -> 作为 Ayar / $MRVL Celestial 的激光供应商……用于即将到来的 CPO 超级周期。 从 $MTSI 到 $LITE，你们所有的激光供应商都是 170-450 亿美元的公司。 $SIVE？ 现在市值只有约 3.1 亿美元。 高确信度做多。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is starting to play out like my $AXTI thesis round 10? Up triple digits now. Really not sure how markets missed this one tbh? -> Laser supplier to Jabil… for 1.6T pluggable transceivers in the current supercycle. -> Laser supplier to Ayar / $MRVL celestial for CPO, in the upcoming supercycle. Literally all your laser suppliers from $MTSI to $LITE are $17-45B companies. $SIVE? Now only at ~$310M. High conviction long.
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说 SIVE 上涨 6.7%，在大盘普跌时说明这是选股者市场。
$SIVE 今天涨了 6.7%。 当从 KOSPI 到 Nikkei 的整个市场都在跌的时候，你就知道自己做对了什么。 而 $TSEM 到 $AXTI 这些个股还在涨。 很明显，现在已经是选股者市场了。 像石油、稀土、半导体这些全世界都在争夺的主题标的，已经明显跑赢了更广泛的市场。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is up 6.7% today. You know you're doing something right: When the entire market from KOSPI to Nikkei is red. While individual longs from $TSEM to $AXTI are green. It's clear that this is now a stock picker's market. As thematic individual names in Oil, Rare Earths, to Semis, that the world is fighting over... Have strongly outperformed the broader market.
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同意 SIVE 是光子超级周期里被低估的光源，并已进入 Jabil 1.6T 光模块周期。
是的，完全同意！$SIVE 是一个非常被低估的名字，它是即将到来的光学超级周期里的光源。 它甚至都还没等到 Celestial 或 Ayar 的 CPO，就已经在 Jabil 的 1.6T 光模块周期里被点名为光源，这正好填补了可插拔等待的空窗。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes agreed! It $SIVE is such an undiscovered name that's the light source for the up and coming optical supercycle. It's not even waiting for CPO with Celestial or Ayar either. They're the named light source for Jabil's 1.6T optical transcivers cycle, which bridges the waiting gap with pluggables.
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说 SIVE->AEVA 的映射已经知名，但自己更看好其与 Boston Dynamics Atlas 供应链的关系。
@JuhongH $SIVE -> $AEVA 这条映射已经很有名了。 人们常把 $AEVA 更多和卡车、国防这类工业用途联系起来。 但我更喜欢它在 humanoids 里的位置。而且我觉得目前根本没人把 $SIVE 映射到潜在的 Boston Dynamics Atlas 供应链上。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JuhongH $SIVE -> $AEVA is already well known. People often cite $AEVA for more industrial stuff like trucking and maybe defense. But I like it for humanoids in specific. And I don't think anyone mapped $SIVE to possible Boston Dynamics Atlas supply chains at all yet.
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说自己对 AEVA 的兴趣也让他关注到 SIVE 这个上游供应商。
@AscendingLife3 我只是觉得这挺有意思，因为我本来就已经在投像 $AEVA 这样的前沿科技公司了。 而 $SIVE 这个名字恰好也是它们的潜在上游供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AscendingLife3 I just find it interesting when I’m already invested in a frontier tech company like $AEVA. The other one in $SIVE happens to be their likely upstream supplier as well.
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把 SIVE->AEVA->LG->Boston Dynamics 视为 4D Physical AI 到光子学的交叉链条。
如果你不记得的话： $AEVA 是我做 4D Physical AI + World Models 的多头。 -> LG 向 $AEVA 投资了 5000 万美元，共同开发 FMCW 4D LiDAR，并明确提到了 humanoids。 -> LG（Boston Dynamics 的视觉供应商）。 但…… 谁在生产这些 FMCW LiDAR 用的 CW 激光器？ 就是那个同样负责光子学放量、并在 $JBL 和 $MRVL Celestial 的 1.6T+ 可插拔模块里扮演关键角色的公司。 它大概率也是 humanoids 和 4D physical AI 的 4D AI CW 激光供应商。 一个很可能的映射是： -> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics。 $SIVE 和 $AEVA 都是我的两只多头，但 4D Physical AI 到光子学这些前沿赛道往往会重叠。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you don't remember: $AEVA was my long for 4D Physical AI + World Models. -> LG $50m in $AEVA to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing Humanoids -> LG (Boston Dynamics vision spuplier). But... Guess who makes those CW lasers for FM-CW Lidar? The very same company for scaling photonics with 1.6T+ pluggables with $JBL to CPO in $MRVL Celestial. Is the likely 4D AI CW laser supplier for humanoids and 4D physical AI. One highly possible mapping: -> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics. Both $SIVE and $AEVA were my two longs, but frontier sectors in 4D Physical AI to photonics tend to overlap.
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推荐在当前价位买入AAOI和SIVE，认为估值有吸引力
$AAOI 和 $SIVE 目前估值都极具吸引力，我个人会在这两个价位买入。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Both $AAOI and $SIVE are extremely compelling valuations right now and id personally buy both at these levels
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说有私募基金已个人投了 SIVE，US 机构受限，追求美国上市可能更好。
有些私募基金的个人合伙人在我最初发帖后，已经亲自投了 $SIVE！甚至还有一些之前投过 Ayar 的人。 不过，很多美国机构现在会被各自 mandate 或海外准入限制卡住，没法投。 但正如你提到的，共同点往往就是他们第一时间看到了价值，然后克服一些障碍买进去。 所以如果再推进一次美国上市，可能是有希望的，因为很多美国投资者现在没有渠道接触，但又想要公司的成长敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
Some individuals that run private equity funds personally invested in $SIVE after my original post! Including some that invested in Ayar before. However, there’s a lot of fund mandates/overseas access that restricts a lot of US institutions from investing today. But the common dominator as you’ve mentioned, likely saw the value straight away and climbed through some hoops. So pursuing a US listing again may be promising, as many US investors don’t have access but want exposure to the company’s growth.
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说 SIVE 因 Jabil、MRVL、Ayar、Onet 等链条而从高风险变成低风险高回报。
是的，我原帖里也公布了财务数据。2 月份的重组，让 $SIVE 变得更有吸引力。 所以我现在认为 $SIVE 已经是低风险、高回报，而不是以前那种高风险了。 在它被宣布成为 Jabil 的光源之后，它也成了我现在高信念的小盘股。 你有 $JBL 在填补 1.6T 可插拔光模块这个巨大的空缺，而不是一直等 CPO。 然后是 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN、$MSFT。 再然后是 Ayar -> AiChip / 其他 -> $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 等。 最后是 O-Net -> 亚洲的 CPO 供应链。 另外，我不觉得在光子超级周期里，任何收入预测都应该是准确的，因为 TAM 扩张 / 量产放大本身就会改变一切。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes in my original post, I published financials. The restructuring February, made $SIVE much more highly compelling. So, I see $SIVE being more low risk, high reward. Not high-risk anymore. And it's now my high conviction small cap after they were announced as the light source for Jabil. You have $JBL bridging the MASSIVE gap for 1.6 pluggable optical transceivers, rather than waiting for CPO. Then $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN, $MSFT. Then Ayar -> AiChip/others -> $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, and others. Then onet -> Asian supply chains for CPO. Also I don't think any revenue forecasts should be accurate given TAM expansion/ramp for photonics supercycles.
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Sivers以2.5亿美元估值复制LITE/COHR模式，成为CPO/ELS时代的光源核心供应商，被严重低估。
估值约2.5亿美元的$SIVE|$SIVEF看起来是光通信半导体市场中结构性错误定价最严重的标的之一。 $LITE和$COHR目前拥有450亿美元以上的估值，主要因为它们控制了外部腔体激光器(EML)和垂直腔面发射激光器(VCSEL)的出货——这些器件流向-> InnoLight和Eoptolink，用于当前可插拔光收发器(supercycle)。 我会一直强调这个观点，直到市场理解： Sivers已经为下一个技术范式复制了这一高度盈利的Merchant Supplier（商业代工）模式： -> 共封装光学(CPO)和外部光源(ELS)。 同时还有： -> 激光器，某大型制造商如Jabil正在用于当前的1.6T升级周期。 Sivers预见到架构正在从EML转型，并成为连续波(CW)激光器的纯Play供应商。 当前周期（可插拔光模块）：LITE/COHR供应EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink制造模块 -> $GOOGL、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN购买。 下一个周期（CPO/ELS）：Sivers供应CW DFB激光器 -> $POET、Ayar Labs -> 流向超大规模数据中心商如$AMZN、$META、$MSFT等。 但与建设大型晶圆厂、承担良率/产能爬坡风险不同： 他们转型为无晶圆厂模式，通过Win Semi外包生产大批量CW激光器，有效降低了规模扩张风险。 那为什么在光电子supercycle期间估值只有2.5亿美元？ 我的观点： 1. 没人知道这家公司。 2. 许多基金的投资限制阻止它们购买瑞典的小盘股。 然而，当你开始关注超大规模数据中心光供应链中那些不知名的上游标的时： 光源领域最顶层的公司是$SIVE。 一家2.5亿美元的小公司，置身于$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、住友电工以及百亿至数百亿美元市值的现有巨头之间。 再说一遍…… 一家2.5亿美元的公司： 为Jabil的1.6T LRO光收发器模块提供核心光源。 Jabil是巨头。 同时还为Ayar、$POET、Enablence/$ONET以及许多其他名字（尚未公开披露）提供多元化供应。 $SIVE已成功打入超大规模数据中心商的供应链，成为未来光电子架构的核心光源供应商。 相对于未来市场空间扩张和产能爬坡来看，估值被严重低估了。
原推 ↗英文原文
< $SIVE | $SIVEF > at a ~$250M valuation looks like one of the most severe structural mispricing in the optical semi market. $LITE and $COHR, have $45B+ valuations today: Largely because of their control over EMLs and VCSELs that they ship to -> InnoLight and Eoptolink. For current pluggable transceiver supercycles. I will keep hammering this home until markets understand: Sivers has replicated this exact, highly lucrative merchant-supplier model for the next paradigm: -> CPO and ELS. And also: -> Lasers that a massive manufacturer like Jabil is using for the current 1.6T upgrade cycle. Sivers saw architectures shifting away from EML and became the pure play supplier for CW. Current Cycle (Pluggables): LITE/COHR supply EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink build modules -> $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN buy them. Next Cycle (CPO / ELS): Sivers supplies CW DFB -> $POET, Ayar Labs -> flows to hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, $MSFT and others. However, instead of building up mega fabs with yield/capacity ramp risk: They transitioned to an outsourced, fabless model for high-volume CW Lasers with Win Semi and effectively de-risked scaling. So why does it have a $250M valuation during the photonics supercycle? My opinion: 1. Nobody knows about it yet. 2. Many fund mandates prevents them from buying small caps in Sweden However, when you start looking at obscure upstream names in hyperscaler light supply chain: At the top for the light source sits $SIVE. A small $250M company among $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo and the $10B-$40B+ incumbents. Again... A $250M company: Powers Jabil's 1.6T LRO optical transceivers modules. Jabil is massive. As well as Ayar, $POET, Enablence/ $ONET and many other names now (that are not disclosed) for diversification. $SIVE found their way to scale as the lightsource of hyperscaler supply chains for future photonic architectures. And looks incredibly undervalued, relative to forward TAM expansion and ramp.
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认为 AXTI 三个月涨 5 倍已经够传奇，并希望 SIVE 成为下一个类似标的。
@KonradJaku11615 我觉得 $AXTI 三个月涨 5 倍已经够传奇了吧？ 不过还是希望 $SIVE 成为下一个，真心感觉它是那种一年才会出现一次的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KonradJaku11615 I feel like $AXTI going up 5x in 3 months was legendary enough? But hope $SIVE is the next, genuinely feels like a once a year type spot.
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看好 SIVE 的非对称性，并比较其轻资产模式与 IQE 的债务压力。
我个人并不觉得它长期有太多下行风险，除了稀释之外。因为 $SIVE 是很多客户（比如 $POET、$JBL、Ayar、O-Net 等）的关键材料来源，而不是只押单一客户。 而且和 $IQE 相比，他们通过 Win Semi 这条链条更偏无晶圆厂模式，所以资本开支更轻。 反过来，$IQE 有很多债务，但也有大量资产，想要被市场强力重估，需要先重组。 这两边的风险画像完全不同，$SIVE 明显更有非对称性。 $IQE 也许有可能因为台湾出售成功而在一天内涨 2.5 倍，长期也可能像 Landmark 那样，如果他们变得更纯粹地做 InP 外延片，股价会更好看。当然，债务悬在头顶也是事实。 但我不会把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，我更喜欢押多匹有机会赢的马。
原推 ↗英文原文
I personally don’t see much downside risk in the long run aside from dilution since $SIVE is the light for many customers like $POET, $JBL, Ayar, O-Net, and others rather than one. And compared to $IQE they’re fabless through win semi so capex is more lightweight. $IQE on the other hand has a lot of debt, but a huge amount of assets, and requires restructuring to be strongly rerated. Risk profiles are extremely different, $SIVE definitely more assymetrical. $IQE can possibly 2.5x in a day based on a successful Taiwan sale, and over the long run like Landmark if they become more pure play inp epiwafer. But of course lot of debt overhang But I don’t put all my eggs in one basket and like to pick multiple horses that can win the race
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回应 AXTI 财报后大跌，提醒大家要自己做尽调，不要只看价格波动。
我猜也是这样。我之所以发这种内容，是因为 $AXTI 财报后一下跌了 30%，跌到 17 美元。 有时候，有些东西对我来说很明显，但我也能理解别人看到大跌时会害怕。 我可能花了更多时间去做尽调，也更早建立了自己对 $SIVE 的信念。但我一直鼓励大家，在自己下单前先建立自己的判断。 不然，人很容易只盯着价格波动，而忽略了基本面的变化。
原推 ↗英文原文
I guess that's true. I had to post something like this after $AXTI dropped 30% to $17 after their earnings report. Sometimes, things feel obvious to me, but I can see why others see a large drop but might be fearful. I probably had a lot more time to do DD and build my own conviction on $SIVE. But I always encourage people to build their own before entering any trade themselves. Otherwise, they might react to prices over fundamental shifts.
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反对“已经计价”的说法，强调 SIVE 已获 Jabil 与 O-Net 供应链确认，仍可能被机构低位吸筹。
是的。我非常不同意那些分析师帖子里说“已经计价了”，还叫散户在 2.5 亿美元市值时获利了结的说法。 -> 在 $SIVE 被 $JBL 证实会用于他们即将推出的收发器之后。 -> 在 $SIVE 已经进入 O-Net 供应链之后。 然后在如今最大的一级光学供应商之一已经确认是 Sivers 买家的情况下，还说这是“情绪驱动”？ 再强调一次，目前这只股票大部分仍由散户持有，所以我个人认为机构是在试图从散户手里吸筹。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah. I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M. -> After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed they were using them for their upcoming transceivers. -> After $SIVE are in O-Net supply chains. Then saying it's "Sentiment Driven" after one of the largest T1 optical suppliers now is a confirmed Sivers buyer. Again, this is currently majority retail owned, so it's my opinion institutions are trying to acquire positions off retail hands.
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分析SIVE预收入仅$250M却或是超大规模数据中心未来光源，低估值蕴含巨大潜力。
今天关于 $SIVE 的一些想法，市值约 $250M： Sivers 是未来可能的共封装光学(CPO) + 激光阵列光源，为 $AMZN、$META 和 $MSFT 等超大规模数据中心提供动力。 以约 $250m 的市值... 从已确认的客户来看，估计映射如下： 1. Jabil ($JBL) LRO 光收发器（前身为 $INTC 的硅光子学业务）-> $AMZN、$META 及其他超大规模数据中心。 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN 及其他超大规模数据中心。 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> 亚洲超大规模数据中心。 4. 以及其他未确认的客户。 人们一直在问关于今天波动性的无尽问题：如果一只股票能上涨 20%，它也能下跌 20%。 $AXTI 经常出现 +30%、-30% 这样的波动（例如财报 -30% 至 $20，现在在 $60）。 就像 AXT 一样，正如你所见，重要的是它有长期跑赢大盘的潜力。 这就是为什么在进入任何交易之前形成自己的信念很重要，这样你就不需要每天问我问题了，如果你自己做了这笔交易的话。 我个人持有长仓，我真的认为 Sivers 有潜力成为市值 $5B+ 的公司，尤其是获得 Win qualification 的话。 尤其是在今天一些分析师告诉人们卖出 $SIVE 获利之后： - 如果你看 $COHR、$LITE 和其他光源公司的估值，它们现在是 $40B+。 - $SIVE 预收入先进封装 counterparties 都是 $1B-$4B+。 - 而我们有 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心供应链的未来光源和 Jabil 光收发器： 市值约 $250M。 这只是我的个人意见，但将信念锚定在市值（$250M）——作为超大规模数据中心供应链的光源——比锚定在价格波动上更好... 尤其是当机构（约 14.1% 持有）能够通过震荡多数持股的股票来建仓时。 这就是为什么我早早分享了我关于 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的想法，因为我相信散户投资者有可能抢先机构一步，抓住 AI 供应链中即将出现的瓶颈环节。 以及为什么我分享了 $SIVE 的超大规模数据中心供应链映射，这样人们可以基于未来光源增长形成自己的信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
My thoughts today on $SIVE, at a ~$250M MC: Sivers is the future likely CW + laser array light source powering hyperscalers from $AMZN, $META, and $MSFT. At ~$250m... From confirmed clients, est. mapping: 1. Jabil ( $JBL ) LRO Transceivers (Former SiPH $INTC) -> $AMZN, $META, and other Hyperscalers. 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN and other hyperscalers. 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> Asian Hyperscalers 4. And other unconfirmed customers. People have been asking me endless questions about today's volatility: If a stock can go up 20% it can do up 20% too. $AXTI had those +30%, -30% movements all the time (eg. Earnings -30% to $20, now at $60). And like AXT as you've seen, what matters is it has the likely potential to outperform long term. That's why it's important to develop your own conviction before entering any trade, so you don't need to ask me questions every day if you take it yourself. I personally have a long position and I do think Sivers has the potential to be a $5B+ company with Win qualification. Especially amid some analysts post today telling people to take profits on $SIVE: - If you just look at $COHR, $LITE and other light source valuations today, they're $40B+. - $SIVE pre-revenue advanced packaging counterparties are all $1B-$4B+. - And we have $SIVE as the future light source for hyperscaler supply chains and Jabil transceivers: At ~$250M. Just my personal opinion, but it's better to anchor conviction to the marketcap ($250M) as the light source for hyperscaler supply chains, than price fluctuations... Especially when institutions (~14.1% owned) are able to to shake the tree of a majority owned stock to build a position. This is why I've shared my thoughts about $AXTI or $SIVE early since I think it's possible for retail investors to frontrun institutions for the up and coming chokepoints in AI supply chains. And why I've shared hyperscaler supply chain mapping for $SIVE so people can build their own conviction on future light-source growth.
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说自己的 UPWK 逻辑在 Reddit 上花了很久才兑现，并认为短期价格波动常被人拿来挑错。
谢谢！是啊，我的 $UPWK 逻辑大概是在 Reddit 上花最久时间才兑现的，哈哈。不过我觉得这些帖子从方向上通常还是对的，只是时间上不一定精确（我记得我 Reddit 的 PT 帖大概 11 个里对了 8 个左右吧，不是每次都准）。 很多人喜欢抓短期价格来挑错（比如今天 $SIVE 的下跌，或者 $NBIS 在可转债消息后的下跌）。但我觉得，我大多数 thesis 帖从长期来看还是正向兑现的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! Yeah my $UPWK thesis probably took the longest time to play out on Reddit haha, but I think they're usually right directionally over time (I remember being ~8 for 11 or something from my Reddit PT posts, don't always get them right). People like to cherry pick short term prices (eg. $SIVE drop today or $NBIS drop post convertible note) to say I'm wrong. But, think most of my thesis posts play out positively over the long run.
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回应外界质疑，强调自己分享的是想法与回报，不需要靠炫富来证明。
谢谢你替我说话。去年我只有几百个关注者、发出 600%+ 收益时，大家都还挺支持的。 现在我有 10 万+ 关注后，反而多了无尽的嫉妒，或者一些莫名其妙的评论，比如： - “除非他们晒净资产，不然就是拿 2000 美元在交易”： 我不需要像其他网红那样发跑车或名表来证明自己是个好交易员。对我来说，最重要的是想法，而收益率已经证明了这些想法在市场里是对的。 - “拉盘砸盘”：几乎每只我持有的股票都保住了涨幅，比如 $AXTI 都涨了 500%+？我大部分收益其实还没兑现。 我从开始发帖以来，自己点名过的高信念标的，几乎都是绿的：$NBIS、$CRCL、$TSM、$RKLB、$HOOD、$ALAB、$CRDO。 也有一些新的，比如 $RDDT，但它现在也只回撤了大概 6-8%，还需要时间兑现。 还有一些更小的标的，比如 $LPTH 或 $VLN，虽然还没兑现，但从发帖以来也就跌了大约 10% 左右，具体取决于进场点，并不是因为它们基本面不好就直接崩掉。 我发的是几十只股票，所以拿其中几只还没跑出来的来代表我全部做过的东西，这真的很荒谬。如果你把所有标的等权平均，你会发现整体还是很绿的。 - “偷票”：很多这些股票都已经存在很多年了，过去也有成千上万的人做多过。 市场之所以对它们反应不同，是因为我在帖子里做了新的信息整合，或者我把它和一个别人没想到的催化剂联系了起来。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $OSS，但它之所以上涨，是因为我把它和委内瑞拉入侵联系起来了（这才是新的）。只是说一句“边缘 AI，看多 $OSS”其实什么都不说明。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $RPI，但它上涨的原因，是因为我第一个把它和 OpenClaw 的投资逻辑联系在一起（这才是新的）。光说“树莓派适合个人使用”也没什么意义。 例子还有很多，比如 $SOI、$SIVE，或者其他任何股票。 我也没说我是第一个发现 $TSEM 或 $NBIS 之类的人，那些本来就是大家都知道的光子代工厂或者 neocloud，我个人只是喜欢，也愿意跟着上车。 别人想怎么说都行，但市场才是真相的最终裁判。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for coming to my defense. Last year when I posted 600%+ gains with a few hundred followers, everyone was supportive. Now that I have 100k+ followers, there's endless jealously or random comments like: - "Only trading with $2K unless they show net worth": I don't need to post lambos/fancy watches like other influencers to prove I'm a good trader. My opinion is ideas what matters the most, and the % return validates that they're correct in the market. - "Pump and Dump": Almost every stock held their gains like $AXTI is up 500%+? Most of my returns are unrealized. Every high conviction stock I've named over time since starting is green: $NBIS, $CRCL, $TSM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $ALAB, $CRDO. There's new ones like $RDDT but that's only down ~6-8% and needs time to play out. There's other smaller picks $LPTH or $VLN that haven't but they're only down like 10% from posting or more depending on entry point and don't just crash because they're all fundamentally good picks. I post tens of stocks, so cherry picking a few that haven't played out yet to represent everything I've done is just ridiculous. If people just take the equal weighted average of everything they're way green. - "Stealing Picks": Many of these stocks have been around for years. Thousands of different people have been long at one point in time. The reason markets react differently is I either bring novel information synthesis to a post, or I time it with a catalyst others don't. People were claiming they found $OSS first, but the reason it went up from $6 was because I linked it to Venezulea's invasion (which was novel). Just saying "edge AI, go long on $OSS doesn't mean anything". People were claiming they found $RPI first, but the reason it went up was because I was the first to link it OpenClaw as an investment thesis (which was novel). People claiming "raspberry pi for personal use doesn't mean anything". List goes on and on with $SOI or $SIVE or any other stock. I'm not claiming I'm the first either to stuff like $TSEM or $NBIS either, that's already a well known photonics foundry or neocloud, I personally just liked it and wanted to hop ont he bandwagon. People can say anything they want but markets are the final arbiter of truth.
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认为不要只盯价格波动，$AXT 和 $SIVE 的长期价值仍可能非常高。
什么都没有？如果有人愿意在限价买单很少的情况下，把给 $JBL、Ayar、$MRVL Celestial 等客户供光源的公司按 2.5 亿美元市值去市价砸盘或者止损，他们当然可以这么做。 我第一次发 $AXT 时，它从 15 美元跌了 20% 到 12 美元，现在已经大概 60 美元了。 最好的办法是看市值，而不是看中途的百分比波动，因为沿途一定会有很多波动。 $SIVE 可能是我现在最喜欢的光子板块机会之一，我个人觉得如果大家 6 个月后回头看，现在的估值一定会让人拍桌子。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nothing? If people want to market sell/stop loss the laser supplier to $JBL, Ayar, $MRVL Celestial and others at a $250m, when there's low limit buys, they're free too. $AXT dropped 20% to $12 when I first posted it at $15 and now it's ~$60. Best thing to do is look at market cap and not the % fluctuations, since there's going to be a lot of volatility along the way. $SIVE is probably one of my favorite photonic sector opportunity right now given valuation. And I personally think if people looked back 6 months later, they'll be pounding the table at current valuations.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
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The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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建议把仓位投向即将到来的硅光 / CPO 方向，并在高信念和分散之间做平衡。
@moderndayvenom 我会把资金投向硅光 / CPO，因为我们知道这会从 OFC 和 $NVDA GTC 继续推进。 像 $TSEM、$SIVE、$SOI 这种名字，是我最喜欢、信念最高的三个。 然后我会稍微分散一点，今天价格下的 $RDDT 也可以作为多头，另外当前收发器周期里的 $AAOI 也不错。
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@moderndayvenom I’d send it into silicon photonics/CPO since we know it’s coming from OFC and $NVDA GTC. Names like $TSEM, $SIVE, $SOI were my favorite three higher conviction ones. Then I’d diversify a bit, maybe $RDDT as a long as of today’s prices. And $AAOI for current transceiver cycles.
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把 SIVE 看作硅光 / CPO 转型中的激光源供应商。
@Bheafey97 $SIVE 会成为硅光 / CPO 转型里的激光源。
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@Bheafey97 $SIVE as the laser source for silicon photonics/CPO shift.
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说 SIVE 是自己最近一次的看法，短期目标市值 20-30 亿美元，而当前市值仍很低。
@ecomTrevor $SIVE 是我最近一次的看法！我个人的短期目标市值是 20-30 亿美元，而它现在的市值才 3 亿美元。 不过话说回来，很多这些已有标的还有很长的路要走。
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@ecomTrevor $SIVE was my latest call! My personal short term PT was $2-3B, and it sits at a $300M MC now. That being said a lot of these existingnames still have a long way to go.
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拿“每天一个苹果”调侃自己总能提前发现瓶颈，并感谢夸奖。
@R_o_LwSzr 一天一苹果，瓶颈远离我？不过我不吃苹果，所以我能更早把它们看出来。 我在光子上的判断，比如 $SIVE 或 $AXTI，一直都挺准的，不过还是谢谢你的夸奖！
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@R_o_LwSzr An apple a day keeps the bottleneck away? But I don’t eat apples, so I’m able to spot them early. My photonics calls have been spot on like $SIVE or $AXTI, but appreciate the nice comment!
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认为光子超级周期不受宏观扰动影响，多个相关标的都在上涨。
$TSEM 和光子超级周期…… 看起来它们并不在意伊朗局势，也不在意白银和黄金下跌？ 从 $AAOI、$COHR、$SIVE 到 $LITE，几乎所有名字都在涨。 这就是未来几年产能已经售罄，或者正处在 AI 建设扩张核心位置时会发生的事。 最好还是继续持有，而不是被宏观噪音带偏。
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$TSEM and the Photonics Supercycle… Doesn’t like they’re bothered with Iran or Silver and Gold crashing? Almost every name from $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE, to $LITE is green. This is what happens when capacity is sold out for the next few years or it’s in the center of scaling the AI buildout. Better to stay long rather than get distracted by macro.
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认为 SIVE/SIVEF 本周大涨后仍被低估，是多家光子和云厂供应链中的关键激光源。
$SIVE <> $SIVEF 这周已经涨了 165%。 估值呢？大约 3 亿美元市值。 不过我可能是傻了，或者说 Sivers 其实就是当下光子领域最好的机会之一。 你买到的是 Jabil、Ayar、Poet（$MRVL Celestial）、O-Net 等公司的激光供应商： 而这些最终都会流向 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的 AI 数据中心。 市值才 3 亿美元。 今天的 EML 激光供应商，比如 $LITE 到 $COHR，作为参照都在 450 亿美元以上。 这可能是未来上游光子供应链里最不被市场理解、却又至关重要的瓶颈之一。 而市场现在才刚开始给它定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE <> $SIVEF is now up 165% this week. Valuation? ~$300M MC. However; either I’m dumb or Sivers is one of the best opportunities in photonics today. You get the laser supplier for Jabil, Ayar, Poet ( $MRVL Celestial ), O-Net, and others: That end up in $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META AI datacenters. At ~$300M. The EML laser suppliers today from $LITE to $COHR for reference are $45B+ This is one of the most undiscovered yet critical bottlenecks for future upstream photonics supply chains. That markets have only starting to price in today.
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把是否愿意为 hyperscaler 供应链里的激光供应商支付约 3 亿美元市值，留给市场自己判断。
@whte708 这就看你自己要不要判断：超大规模云供应链里的激光供应商，值不值大约 3 亿美元市值。
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@whte708 Up to you to decide if the laser supplier to hyperscaler supply chains is worth ~$300m MC or not.
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说明 POET 是买 SIVE 的激光再进行封装，SIVE 才是光源。
@ram_blings 因为 $POET 是先买 $SIVE 的激光，再把它封装起来。 $SIVE 才是光源，这里并不是 POET 在直接起作用。
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@ram_blings Because $POET buys $SIVE lasers then packages it. $SIVE is the light source, $POET isn’t being used here
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说明 SIVE 会随着 Win Semi 认证扩大产能。
@CMunchSand 他们会随着 Win Semi 的认证去扩产。
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@CMunchSand They scale capacity with win semi qualification
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认为在 Jabil 确认采用 SIVE 作为收发器光源后，SIVE 的短期市值区间可能上修到 20-30 亿美元。
@MarcOliver_L 现在来看，近端 20-30 亿美元市值是合理的，因为 $SIVE 已经被确认会成为 Jabil 即将推出的收发器产线的光源。 所以按现在价格看，大概是 7-8 倍？之前仅基于 Ayar / O-Net / Poet 时，我还只看到 10 亿美元市值。
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@MarcOliver_L Probably near term $2-3B MC is reasonable now that $SIVE is the confirmed light source for Jabil’s upcoming transceiver line. So around 7-8x current prices? Before it was $1B MC just based off Ayar/O-Net/Poet
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澄清这是 Jabil 采用 SIVE 作为新收发器光源的全新消息，不是 Win Semi。
@MaxtheCat145 不，除非你有来源，否则这就是全新的消息：Jabil 在即将推出的收发器里使用 $SIVE 作为它的光源。 我觉得你说的是 Win Semi。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MaxtheCat145 No, unless you have a source this is brand new news that Jabil is using $SIVE as their light source for upcoming transceivers. I think you’re thinking of Win Semi
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认为市场还没完全意识到 Jabil 与 SIVE 的合作，约 3.1 亿美元市值可能被低估。
我觉得市场大多数人还没注意到 Jabil 和 $SIVE 的合作。 尤其是除了 OFC 会议现场流出的实物线索之外，并没有正式新闻。 我感觉，Jabil 的收发器光源按 3.1 亿美元市值来算…… 可能还低估了。 https://t.co/bAnDygPD3X
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Don’t think majority of the market picked up on the Jabil and $SIVE partnership yet. Especially since there’s no formal news, aside from physical leaks from the OFC conference*. Feel like $310M MC for Jabil’s transceiver light source… Might be underpricing it. https://t.co/bAnDygPD3X
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提醒对方别忘了自己最初发现 SIVE 时，它也只有 2.8 亿美元市值。
@Kallemk75 兄弟，别往伤口上撒盐，但记得你发现 $SIVE 的时候，它才 2.8 亿美元市值。
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@Kallemk75 gg, not to put salt on the wound, but just remember, $SIVE was once $280M MC when you found it.
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解释自己很早知道 SIVE，但因为觉得硅光周期还早而没买，直到 GTC 出现催化。
我之前就知道这家公司一段时间了，因为 Reddit 上一直有人狂吹 $POET，而那也是他们最喜欢的股票。 Sivers 也时不时被提到。 只是我一直觉得硅光 / CPO 还有很长时间才会真正落地，所以从没真正做多。 但 $NVDA GTC 成了它需要的催化剂，尤其是在……
原推 ↗英文原文
Was aware of it for awhile from all the $POET shilling back on Reddit as it's their #1 favorite stock over there. And Sivers got name dropped from time to time. Just felt like silicon photonics/CPO was quite a ways away so never went long. But $NVDA GTC was the catalyst it needed, especially with the new Jabil announcement. So ended up going long.
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认为 Jabil 的规模和验证意义很大，SIVE 可能会因这条消息迅速重估到更高市值。
Jabil 体量很大，几乎给每一家超大规模云厂商供货。 这毫无疑问是 $SIVE 到目前为止最重要的消息，因为这等于给他们的光源做了超大规模云级别的验证。 Sivers 以 2.8 亿美元市值来看太便宜了，我不会惊讶它因为这条消息在短期内重估到 20 亿美元以上。
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Jabil is just massive and supplies to almost every hyperscaler. This is definitely the biggest news to date for $SIVE as this is hyperscaler-level validation for their light source. Sivers is dirt cheap at $280m, would not be surprised if it ended up $2B+ near term repricing this news.
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把 SIVE 视作 MRVL Celestial、Ayar、O-Net、Jabil 等链路的激光源，最终服务于大型云厂商。
它们字面上就是 $MRVL Celestial 通过 $POET、Ayar -> AI Chip / GUC、O-Net，乃至现在的 Jabil 所使用的光源。 所以终端客户大概率全是 $MSFT、$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN……也就是说，它们可能会成为整个超大规模云供应链，甚至亚洲供应链的未来潜在光源。 市值只有 2.8 亿美元，wtf？ 按 30 亿到 50 亿美元去看都不夸张。
原推 ↗英文原文
They're literally the light source for $MRVL Celestial through $POET, Ayar -> Ai Chip/GUC, O-Net, and now Jabil. So end users are probably all $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN... The future potential light source for the entire hyperscaler supply chain and even ones in Asia. At $280m MC, wtf? $3-5B MC for $SIVE near term is not far fetched.
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Sivers成为Jabil 1.6T光收发器激光光源供应商，是其在CPO/硅光子供应链中的重大突破。
Sivers <$SIVE/$SIVEF>为Jabil（270亿美元市值）<$JBL>的1.6T长距离光(LRO)收发器提供光源。 作为激光光源供应商。 这无疑是$SIVE（2.8亿美元市值）公司历史上——也是今天$NVDA GTC大会上——最大的新闻…… Jabil从$AMZN、$GOOGL和$META等终端用户那里带来约300亿美元以上的收入。 以及$NVDA、Arista、$AVGO和Cisco等OEM厂商。 尤其是在收购$INTC的硅光子(SiPh)光收发器业务后，他们在该领域已是一级供应商(Tier 1)。 Sivers为Jabil提供连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB laser)光源，应用于硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(CPO)及超大规模云服务商供应链： 对于一家市值仅2.8亿美元的公司来说，这是难以置信的，而且他们是光子学领域我见过的最不知名却最具潜力的公司。 $NVDA GTC的消息只是进一步巩固了这一投资论点。 我认为他们真的有机会成为下一个$LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > powering Jabil ($27B MC) < $JBL > 1.6T LRO transcivers. As the laser light source. Is by far the biggest news from $NVDA GTC for Sivers ($280M MC) today... in history. Jabil brings in about $30B+ revenue from end users like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META. As well as OEMs like $NVDA, Arista, $AVGO, and Cisco. Especially after acquiring $INTC SiPH optical transceiver business, they're Tier 1 in the space. Sivers powering Jabil as the CW DFB laser source for Silicon Photonics and CPO and hyperscaler supply chains: At a $280M MC is incredible, and they're one of the most unknown yet highest potential company I've seen in the photonics sector so far. And the news from $NVDA GTC just cemented this thesis further. I think they genuinely have a shot at becoming the next $LITE.
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表示自己还想再加 SIVE，因为 Jabil 供货超大规模云厂商的验证非常关键。
@Be_nice_dot_com 我还是不太够 $SIVE……尤其是有了这个消息之后，我大概会在开盘再加一点。 $JBL 应该是这个领域最大的玩家之一，基本上给所有超大规模云厂商供货。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Be_nice_dot_com I don't have enough $SIVE... Especially after this news and I'll probably add more market open. $JBL is probably one of the largest players in this space and basically supply to all the hyperscalers.
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博主认为SIVE成为Jabil光源供应商的消息将驱动SIVE股价大幅重新估值。
@mrsgayathridas 关于$IBKR的看法。$SIVE成为$JBL的光源这个新公告可能是迄今为止最大的新闻。我预计这只股票将因这个消息而获得巨大的重新估值。Jabil为$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN、$MSFT提供光收发器。他们是一个巨头的存在。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mrsgayathridas $IBKR. The new announcement $SIVE is the light source for $JBL is probably biggest news to date. And I expect the stock to get re-rated immensely from the news. Jabil powers $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT for optical transceivers. They’re a huge player.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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分析Sivers和IQE在硅光子学供应链中的卡位，看好其从传统业务向InP光子学的转型机会。
$SIVE/$SIVEF和$IQE。Sivers为CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)制造激光阵列和CW DFB激光器。并且已经嵌入超大规模云厂商如$AMZN和$MSFT集群的供应链，作为Captive模式如$MRVL Celestial和Merchant模式如Ayar的光源。然后他们通过晶圆(win)认证来提升产能，这样在内部扩产时不会消耗太多资本支出。$IQE是InP外延片(epiwafer)供应商，正在将legacy沉积反应器重构用于光子学供应链。他们已经是$LITE的已知供应商，另一大供应商是Landmark，估值约40亿美元（但产能潜力较小）。这基本上相当于将$IREN或$RIOT的比特币矿工转为HPC，但针对的是光子学。有相当多的债务，但这更多是在赌台湾销售能通过，以及管理层会转向InP生产以获得重新评级。所以这两家是我目前最看好的。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE / $SIVEF and $IQE. Sivers makes laser arrays and cw dfb lasers for cpo/silicon photonics. And is embedded into hyperscaler supply chains like $AMZN and $MSFT clusters as the light source from captive models like $MRVL celestial from $POET and merchant models from Ayar. Then they’re up capacity through win qualification, so they don’t burn as much capex scaling in house. $IQE is InP epiwafer and refactoring reactors from legacy drag to photonic supply chains. They’re already a known $LITE supplier and the other biggest one is Landmark sitting around ~$4B (with less latent capacity). This is basically the equivalent of $IREN or $RIOT turning their Bitcoin miners into HPC, but for photonics. There’s a decent amount of debt, but this is more of a guess that their Taiwan sales will go through and management will pivot toward InP production for rerating. So those two are my favorites right now
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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认为 SIVE 两年内到 110 亿美元市值完全有可能，市场尚未充分定价光子 TAM 的扩张。
@tweet_tj 对，我觉得 $SIVE 两年后到 110 亿美元市值完全有可能。我觉得市场还没有真正意识到，光子学接下来会出现多么巨大的 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
@tweet_tj Yep, I think $11B is definitely possible for $SIVE in two years. I feel like markets haven’t fully realized the massive TAM expansion that’s coming for photonics yet.
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总结自己的研究流程：先发 thesis，再做跟进研究，最后在 thesis 兑现后庆祝并持有。
谢谢！ 我的风格通常是： -> 先发 thesis 帖 -> 再做后续研究（比如 $AXTI 的 7N 铟出口管制、瓶颈） -> thesis 兑现后再庆祝 如果之后也没什么新东西，就继续拿着。 市场里大部分钱，都是靠找出别人不知道的东西赚到的，所以我现在就是在继续做这类功课，尤其是 $SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! My style is usually: -> Thesis post -> Follow up research (eg. $AXTI 7n indium export controls, bottleneck) -> Then celebration when thesis plays out And then just sitting on it (if there's nothing too new). Most of the money in markets is to be made finding out stuff others don't, so just doing some of that work now with $SIVE.
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分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机
都是很好的问题！我的看法： - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来，CPO（共封装光学）今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现，就像我在供应链映射中提到的，大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家（从$AXTI就能看出这一点）。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众，关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资，所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款（10.85%）和500万美元定期贷款（12%），对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面：赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来，这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model（如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia）模式风险更低，基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商，无论怎样都能赢，但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是，时机足够早，可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器，所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。
原推 ↗英文原文
All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.
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Sivers涨幅29%达2.82亿市值，作者认为其作为CPO/硅光子学上游激光供应商，是下一个LITE，尚未被市场定价。
Sivers今天又涨了29%，市值达到2.82亿美元。我真心认为$SIVE可能是下一个$LITE。因为他们被定位为下一代超大规模算力供应链接构的光源。当scale up-scale out架构转向共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)时——光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)的开端。那些从$POET和Ayar购买并封装其激光阵列/cw DFB激光(连续波分布反馈激光器)的公司——估值约10亿至40亿美元以上（不包括O-Net或未披露的公司）。在当前可插拔光收发器(Pluggable Transceiver)周期中：激光供应商通常比其购买光源的封装对手方获得更高的估值溢价。所以，我确实认为$SIVE在很大程度上被市场忽视，远未反映在股价中。（该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，仅供理解语境）：$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。他们是未来类似$COHR/$LITE的光源供应商，可能用于：- $AMZN Trainium集群- $MSFT Maia集群以及可能的其他超大规模算力商如$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。目前市值约2亿美元。关联映射（推测性）：$SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial内部供应）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ？亚洲超大规模算力商。持续进行中：$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU）。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（内部CPO）-> ?（$MSFT, $META历史上Wiwynn最大的客户）。由于类似$MRVL Celestial这样的内部供应模式，他们获得了免费搭乘。然而，他们确实在商业模式下与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI多源自ELS竞争，并与Ayar一起获胜。但无论哪种方式他们都能赢。对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行的Win半导体验证，但这可能是一个重要指标。再强调一下，供应链BOM（物料清单）是极其机密的。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们用$SIVE"。但如果你把1+1+1+1+1放在一起，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。大多数人看到"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE，或Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有映射所有多跳关系来看它们最终去向哪里。我确实认为$SIVE是一个非常未被发现的机遇，作为未来硅光子学领域可能的迷你版$LITE，当时市值2亿美元。作为未来CPO/硅光子学规模扩展的上游激光供应商，用于cw DFB激光器和激光阵列的超大规模算力供应链接构。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sivers is up another 29% to a $282M marketcap today. I genuinely think $SIVE could be the next $LITE. As they’re positioned as the light source for the next generation of hyperscaler supply chains. When scale up-scale out architectures transition to CPO & Silicon photonics. For the start of next Photonics Supercycle. The companies that buy and package their laser arrays/cw dfb lasers from $POET to Ayar? Are worth ~$1B-$4B+ (not including o-net or undisclosed). With current pluggable transceiver cycles: Laser suppliers typically command higher valuation premiums than their packaging counterparties that buy the light source. So, I do think $SIVE is largely undiscovered by markets and far from being priced in.
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祝贺对方曾是 SIVE 的前 CEO，并表示很喜欢他们在硅光 / CPO 领域的成果。
@StormDirac 哇，你以前居然是 $SIVE 的 CEO，太酷了。 恭喜你把它做到了现在这个位置，我很喜欢他们在硅光 / CPO 领域做的事情。你一定也会为此感到很自豪！
原推 ↗英文原文
@StormDirac Wow super cool that you were the former CEO of $SIVE. Congrats on building it up to this position, I love what they’re doing in the space for silicon photonics/CPO. I know you must be feeling proud!
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用设计/组装、激光/收发器两类公司估值作比较，推导 SIVE 与 AAOI 的合理市值区间。
在设计 / 组装这一侧： Eoptolink（中国）：约 500 亿美元市值，约 53 亿美元营收 Innolight（中国）：约 840 亿美元市值，约 110 亿美元营收 $FN 这类低毛利组装公司约 200 亿美元市值，对应约 40 亿美元预期营收。 在激光 / 收发器这一侧： $LITE 约 470 亿美元市值：到 2026 年末营收将超过 30 亿美元。 然后是 $AAOI，现在月收入 3.75 亿美元左右，供应链位于激光 / 设计 / 组装这一层，目标年化营收约 45 亿美元 + 继续增长。 按这个逻辑，$AAOI 估值到 130 亿美元似乎合理，因为它还没真正到那个数字。 而 $SIVE，你只要看 CPO 的爬坡去猜就行。 通常先进封装公司（至少在当前周期里）会比它们对应的激光公司拿到更低的估值，除非它们自己也做设计。 $SIVE 给 $POET / Ayar 等公司供激光，而后者估值都在 10 亿到 30 亿美元+。 所以 $SIVE 至少也应该有 10 亿美元左右的下限。 这只是拿相似公司的估值 / 营收预测做比较，然后再做一个估算。
原推 ↗英文原文
For design/assembly Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B revenue Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~$11B revenue $FN for low margin assembly ~$20B MC, ~$4B projected revenue. For lasers/transceiver: $LITE ~$47B MC: ~$3B+ EOY 2026. Then you have $AAOI, $375M/month for laser/design/assembly supply chain, ~$4.5B ARR target + growth. Maybe ~$13B sounds reasonable since it hasn't hit those numbers yet. It's discretionary. As for $SIVE, you can just look at CPO ramp and just take a guess. Usually advanced packaging companies (at least in current cycles), have around the less valuation as their laser counterparts (Unless they do design). $SIVE supplies lasers to $POET/Ayar both of which are $1-$3B+ valuations. So $SIVE at least should be ~$1B low end. This is just comparing similar company valuation/revenue projections, then making an estimate.
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用容量和供应链地位推演 AAOI 与 SIVE 的潜在市值上修空间，认为光学超级周期极其夸张。
我觉得市场应该这样给它们定价： $AAOI：从 93 美元到 162 美元（约 130 亿美元市值），这是在他们今天公布新产能预测之后的合理水平。 而 $SIVE 至少也应该从 7.7 美元到 38.5 美元，按约 11 亿美元市值去看？ 如果其中一个到 2027 年末扩产到约 19.7 亿美元的产能（基本上就等于营收，因为超大规模云厂商会把能买的都买掉）， 那另一个又是从 $AMZN Trainium 到 $MSFT Maia 集群的超大规模云供应链里，最可能的激光供应商？ 至少也该把未来营收增长计进去。 这还不算执行不确定性，也没给其他像 $LWLG 这类公司加上溢价（它们也已经有 11 亿美元以上市值）。 如果 Win Semi 认证了 $SIVE，而 $POET / Ayar 等继续扩产，我觉得 $SIVE 的估值从这里 20-30 倍都不是没可能？ 如果 $AAOI 真按每月 3.78 亿美元的目标跑，股价从这里 5 倍到大约 300 亿美元市值也完全可能。 这些潜在目标价足以说明光学超级周期有多夸张（像存储一样），只是最终要看每家公司执行得如何。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like markets should value: $AAOI $93 -> $162 (~$13B MC) after their new capacity projections today. and $SIVE should be valued at 7.7 -> 38.5 ($1.1B MC) at least? If one is ramping to ~$1.97B capacity EOY 2027 (which is basically revenue, since hyperscalers are buying anything they can make) Then the other is the likely laser supplier to hyperscaler supply chains from $AMZN Trainium to $MSFT Maia Clusters? At the very least, should price in forward revenue growth. This is including execution uncertainty, and without premiums assigned to others like $LWLG at $1.1b+. If Win semi qualifies $SIVE and $POET/Ayar/and others scale up. I feel like $SIVE valuation could easily 20x-30x from here? If $AAOI hits $378M/month projections, could easily 5x from here to a ~$30B MC. These possible price targets is how insane the optical supercycle is (like memory), but largely depends on how each company can execute.
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认为 SIVE 可能会重演 LITE 和 AXTI 的重估路径，AI 正把商品的定义改写。
$LITE 和 $AXTI 以前作为周期性的电信供应商，被折腾了很多年。 然后它们现在又都变成了整个 AI 建设的核心，因为光子技术而被重估了几千个百分点。 我有种感觉，$SIVE 在硅光和 CPO 上也会是一样的路。 AI 已经改变了像存储这种曾经被视为“商品”的定义，给了它们极强、结构性的需求。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE and $AXTI had problems for years as a cyclical telecom provider. Then they’re both now the center of the entire AI buildout with photonics and got rerated a few thousand percent. I just have a feeling it’s the same with $SIVE for silicon photonics and CPO. AI changed the definition of former “commodities” like memory and gave them exteme and structral demand
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认为真正值得投资的是能给超大规模云光学超级周期供货、并受 AI TAM 扩张驱动的欧洲公司。
随机一家低市盈率的欧洲公司，和一家给超大规模云供应链光子超级周期供应激光的公司，是不一样的。 如果一家欧洲市场公司没有像 Soitec 或 $SIVE 这样来自 AI 的极端 TAM 扩张，我个人不会投。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s a difference between a random European company trading at low p/e. Then one that suppliers lasers for the Optical Supercycle to hyperscaler supply chains. I personally would not invest in European markets unless it had extreme TAM expansion from AI like Soitec or $SIVE.
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解释 Sivers 低估值来自知名度低、交易所小众和早期烧钱阶段，而不是单纯基本面差。
我有点不同意。日本公司之所以常常深度折价到账面价值，是因为直到最近，它们一直很少有像分红这类的股东回报。 我猜 Sivers 之所以估值一直偏低，主要是因为最近之前几乎没人知道它，也没人真正理解它在光子供应链里的位置。 再加上它是在一个更小众的欧洲交易所上，很多基金的市值门槛又不够，根本买不了。 而且它之前还处于烧钱阶段（这点 $POET 的散户其实都知道），只是市场可能太早了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’d slightly disagree. Japanese companies trade at deep book value because there wasn’t any return to shareholders with things like dividends until recently. My guess is Sivers primarily trades at low valuations because nobody knew about it and their positioning in the photonic supply chains until recently. Coupled with the fact they’re on a more obscure European exchange + didn’t pass MC threshold for a lot of funds to be able to buy. They were also in their cash burn phase (it was well known to $POET retail investors) but they were probably too early.
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惊讶于 SIVE 只值约 2 亿美元却承担着超大规模云光子供应链的关键激光角色。
我越研究 Sivers <$SIVE / $SIVEF>，越会想： 给超大规模云光子供应链供激光的公司…… 怎么才值大约 2 亿美元市值？ 那些买它们激光再重新封装的公司，现在市值都已经 10 亿到 40 亿美元以上了？ 连还没产品的 SV AI 公司都能值几十亿美元？ 还在开发阶段、还没收入的光子公司，像 $LWLG 这种都已经 10 亿美元以上？ 结果真正让硅光 / CPO 的 scale-up 和 scale-out 跑起来的公司。 而且还是真有营收的。 却只值 2 亿美元…… 这让我想起最早期的 $AXTI，当时我完全没意识到，一家市值 5 亿美元的公司竟然掌控着 InP 基板 / 原料供应链。 要么我完全错了……要么这就是市场上最被低估、最不为人知的光子公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
The more I look into Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > the more I wonder: How is the laser company for the hyperscaler photonic supply chains… Valued at ~$200M USD MC? All the companies that buy and repackage their lasers are now worth $1-4B+? Pre-product SV AI companies are worth billions? Pre revenue Photonic companies in development phase line $LWLG are worth $1B+? Yet the company that makes the silicon photonics/CPO scale up & scale out work. And has actual revenue. ~$200M… Reminds me of early $AXTI when I had zero clue how a company worth $500M MC controlled the InP substrate/feedstock supply chain for photonics. Either I’m completely wrong… or this is the most undervalued and unknown photonics company on the market.
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认为 SIVE 在 2 亿美元市值下太便宜，CPO / 硅光才是 2027 年后的主要增长引擎。
@Zantetrader $SIVE 现在才 2 亿美元市值…… 就算是还没产品的硅谷 LLM 初创公司，都能值它的 20 倍。 $LITE 作为当前可插拔瓶颈里的领先激光供应商，市值已经有 440 亿美元以上，正好是个参照。 CPO / 硅光才是 2027 年之后的主要增长引擎。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Zantetrader $SIVE is trading at $200m… Pre-product Silicon Valley LLM startups are worth 20x more than that. $LITE as a reference point is $44B+ as the leading laser supplier in current pluggable bottlenecks. CPO/Silicon photonics is the main growth engine past 2027.
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强调自己会先用前瞻基本面和供应链终端需求建模，而不是先看图形。
我会先把前瞻性的基本面（营收、利润）建模进去，然后再让市场去给 $AAOI 这样的公司定价。 或者像 $SIVE 那样，去看供应链终端客户，比如 $AMZN 或 $MSFT 对光源的需求。 市场里大部分 alpha，本来就是这么找到的，不是靠画一条歪歪扭扭的线。
原推 ↗英文原文
I try to model in forward fundamentals (revenue, profit) before markets price the company in with stuff like $AAOI. Or with $SIVE, looking at supply chain end users like $AMZN or $MSFT for light sources. That's how most of the money is to be made in markets finding alpha, not drawing a swiggly line on a chart.
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$SIVE作为2亿美元市值的硅光子学上游激光供应商，是未被发现的机遇，供应超大规模业者CPO供应链。
$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。 他们是未来可能像$COHR和$LITE那样的光源供应商，用于： - $AMZN Trainium集群 - $MSFT Maia集群 以及可能还有其他超大规模业者的$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。 市值约2亿美元。 关系映射（推测性）： $SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial专用）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? 亚洲超大规模业者 正在进行中： $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU） $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（专用CPO）-> ?（$MSFT、$META历史上是Wiwynn最大的客户）。 由于$MRVL Celestial等专用模式的存在，他们可以免费搭便车。 然而，他们在与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI的多源ELS竞争中对抗Ayar并获胜，即使在商业模式下也是如此。 但无论哪种模式他们都能获胜。 对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行中的Win半导体认证，但这可能是一个重要指标。 同样，供应链BOM（物料清单）极度保密。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们使用$SIVE"。 但如果你把1+1+1+1+1加起来，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。 大多数人都知道"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE。或者Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有将所有多跳关系映射到最终目的地。 我真的认为$SIVE是一个极未被发现的机遇，可能成为下一个小型$LITE，用于硅光子学，在2亿美元市值下。 因为他们是未来CPO/硅光子学规模化扩展中超大规模业者供应链的上游激光供应商，cw DFB激光器和激光阵列用于扩展。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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分析光通信供应链中不同规模公司的上涨潜力，从大型成熟公司到细分领域纯业务公司
三件事： 1/ 通常，市值越小，上涨空间越大（但风险也更高） 2/ 寻找那些未被定价进当前可插拔光模块周期的公司（EML光收发器公司如$LITE和$COHR） 3/ 纯业务布局即将到来的CPO/硅光子学范式转换。 说到追求“最高上涨空间”： 如果你看$MRVL的Celestial产品线对比$TSM的COUPE，两者都是大体量公司，而这只是它们营收的一小部分。所以这很可能被排除，除非交易员使用期权。 像$SOI的SOI衬底这类产品会对营收产生更实质性的影响（更高的上涨空间）。 然后还有像上游激光供应商$SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> 超大规模云厂商供应链这样的环节，我已识别为高潜力受益者。 但像$AAOI这样的公司在800G/1.6T可插拔光模块周期中仍有巨大的上涨空间。 我相信市场上有许多被错误定价或未知的投资机会…… CPO规模化应用的TAM（总可寻址市场）像是垂直上升的，但像$SIVE这样的产品用于规模化应用的光源和激光阵列。
原推 ↗英文原文
Three things: 1/ Generally, the lower the marketcap, the higher the upside (but more risk) 2/ Finding companies that weren’t priced into current pluggable cycles (EMl-transceiver companies like $LITE and $COHR) 3/ Pure play to the upcoming cpo/silicon photonics paradigm shift. In terms of chasing “highest upside”: If you look at $MRVL Celestial to $TSM COUPE they’re both already massive companies. And it’s just a fraction of their revenue. So that’s likely excluded unless traders use options. Stuff like SOI substrates for $SOI will make a more material difference toward revenue (higher upside). Then others like upstream laser supplier $SIVE to ->$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> hyperscaler supply chains, I’ve identified as a high potential beneficiary. But there’s still a massive upside for companies like $AAOI in the 800g/1.6T pluggable cycle. I’m sure there’s a lot of mispriced or unknown opportunites out there… as The TAM for cpo scale up is like a vertical like up, but things like $SIVE are used for light sources in scale up and laser arrays for scale up.
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认为光子超级周期已经到来，NVIDIA 正把 CPO / 硅光推到临界点，光正成为 AI 基建核心。
光子超级周期已经来了。 $NVDA 正在带头把下一次飞跃推向 CPO 和硅光。 而我们现在离拐点还很近，供应链里的瓶颈，比如 Soitec（$SOI）或者 Sivers（$SIVE），都已经开始显现。 “NVIDIA 对 Spectrum-X 交换机和 co-packaged optics 的更新，是一个重要时刻，说明硅光已经成为下一代 AI 基础设施的核心。” 尽管系统扩展长期依赖铜互连，但公司现在已经把光子放到了未来平台的核心，包括 Vera Rubin Ultra。 这种转变预计将支撑越来越复杂的配置，比如 NVL576，以及未来像 Kyber NVL1152 这样的架构。” “Nvidia 已经在量产 Spectrum-X Photonics，也就是 co-packaged optics（CPO）以太网交换机。 公司还宣布了 Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand 交换机，它通过自有的 scale-out 互连，每秒可提供高达 800 Tb 的带宽。” 虽然铜依然重要，但它已经无法单独承受 AI 规模需求。 NVLink8 CPO 大概是最大的信号，因为 $NVDA 也把硅光带进了它的 scale-up NVLink 互连，而不仅仅是 scale-out 网络。 scale-out 的 CPO 现在 / 2026 年已经在出货，NVLink scale-up 的 CPO 也很快会到来。 范式已经改变，AI 基础设施的瓶颈现在正正式由“光”来解决。 市场只差时间去发现这些供应链中的瓶颈，然后再把它们计价进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Photonics Supercycle is here. $NVDA is spearheading the next leap into CPO & Silicon Photonics. And we’re only near the inflection point with chokepoints in the supply chains like Soitec ( $SOI ) or Sivers ( $SIVE ). “NVIDIA’s update on the Spectrum-X switch with co-packaged optics is an important moment, confirming that silicon photonics is central to next-generation AI infrastructure.” Despite a long-standing reliance on copper-based interconnects for scale-up systems, the company is now placing photonics at the core of its future platforms, including Vera Rubin Ultra. This transition is expected to support increasingly complex configurations, such as NVL576 and future architectures like Kyber NVL1152.” “Nvidia is already in production with Spectrum-X Photonics, which is co-packaged optics (CPO) Ethernet switch. The company also announced the Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand switch, which delivers up to 800 Tb per second of scale-out throughput using its proprietary scale-out interconnect” Although copper is important, it can no longer alone can no longer handle AI-scale demands. NVLink8 CPO is probably the biggest signal with $NVDA also bringing silicon photonics into its scale-up NVLink interconnect, not just scale-out networking. CPO for scale-out is shipping now/2026, CPO for NVLink scale-up arrives soon. The paradigm has shifted, and the bottleneck of AI infrastructure is now officially being solved by light. It’s only a matter of time before markets find these chokepoints in the supply chains. Then price them in.
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偏好半垄断和上游瓶颈，认为 SIVE 的上行空间最大，其次可能是 AAOI。
我一般都更喜欢半垄断型公司……所以基板层面的 $AXTI 和 $SOI 大概是我最喜欢的？ $TSEM 和 $COHR 是我两个一直很稳的复利标的。 至于上行空间最大，我确实觉得 $SIVE 可能会拿下下一只 $LITE 的位置。也许 $AAOI 排第二吧……
原推 ↗英文原文
I tend to like semi-monopolies... So $AXTI and $SOI on substrate level are probably kinda my favorites? $TSEM and $COHR were my two steady compounders. As for highest upside, I do think $SIVE takes the crown as the next potential $LITE. Maybe $AAOI second place. And $AXTI third?
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给出自己在这批光子名字里的偏好组合，并列出当前周期最喜欢的标的。
@GOATTRADER5184 所以我自己从这堆里挑出来的标的有： $SIVE、$TSEM、$AEHR、$SOI。 我喜欢尽量挑赢家。至于当前周期，我更喜欢的是： $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE
原推 ↗英文原文
@GOATTRADER5184 So my personal picks out of the bunch were: $SIVE, $TSEM, $AEHR, $SOI. I like try and pick winners. As for current cycle it's: $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
原推 ↗英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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认为 CPO TAM 呈指数级增长，自己看多 SIVE、AXTI 等受益于 architectural shift 的标的。
看看这张图就知道了。未来几年 CPO TAM 是直接一条直线上去的。 市场通常会害怕那种“一次性”周期，但这看起来是指数型的。 我说过 $SIVE 可能是下一个 $LITE，所以我会长期持有。基板供应商比如 $AXTI 和 $SOI 也是一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just look at this graph. Straight line up for CPO TAM next few years. Normally markets are scared of one-and-done cycles, but this looks exponential. I said $SIVE could be the next $LITE so I’m long for awhile. Same with substrate providers like $AXTI and $SOI. As for current transceiver bottlenecks, would re-evaluate next year.
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分析光通信从EML到SiPh架构变化中的投资机会与瓶颈环节
Alpha就是捕捉从当前EML到明年SiPh(硅光子)/CW DFB架构变化带来的机会。 所以像Soitec($SOI)、$TSEM、$SIVE、$POET这类还没被重新定价的新标的。 目前瓶颈环节是像$AAOI这样最近业绩预期爆表、还有很大上涨空间的股票。但我还是认为$COHR和$LITE也有被重新定价的空间。 然后还有用于各种光电器件的InP(磷化铟)衬底/原料，比如$AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
The alpha is capturing the rotation from the current EML to SiPh / CW DFB architectural change next year. So new stuff like Soitec ( $SOI ), $TSEM, $SIVE, and $POET type names that haven't been re-rated yet. Current bottleneck would be stuff like $AAOI that recently had blowout projections and have a long way to go. But I still think there's room for $COHR and $LITE to be re-rated as well. Then there's InP substrate/feedstock for photonics like $AXTI which is used across everything.
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澄清非荐股，分享个人观点并感谢粉丝支持
@sunnyviljamaa 别担心！我绝对不是推荐任何人都做多 $SIVE。我个人只是觉得它非常吸引人，就像我去年对 $LITE 一样。我只是在分享我的投资论点，以防其他人觉得有趣。感谢你的赞赏！
原推 ↗英文原文
@sunnyviljamaa No worries! I'm definitely not recommending anyone to go long on $SIVE. I personally just found it extremely compelling like I did with $LITE last year. And I'm just sharing my thesis along the way in case others find it interesting Thanks for the note of appreciation!
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Sivers作为硅光子激光供应商多方布局，2亿估值极具吸引力。
我相信是的。 $SIVE看起来就像是早期的$LITE，在CPO/硅光子领域2.12亿美元的估值看起来太荒谬了。 他们现在通过Enablence -> O-Net成为亚洲CPO供应链的激光供应商，供应AI数据中心（有点像Innolight供应可插拔收发器的方式）。 通过$Poet -> $MRVL Celestial成为美国超大规模云厂商供应链的激光供应商。 还是$NVDA支持的Ayar的商用模式激光供应商。 风险回报比对我个人来说看起来非常有前景。
原推 ↗英文原文
I believe so. $SIVE looks like the early $LITE for CPO/Silicon photonics at a $212M valuation, which looks absurd. They're now the laser supplier for the Asian CPO supply chain via Enablence -> O-Net for AI DCs (kinda like Innolight for pluggable transcievers) Laser supplier for US hyperscaler supply chains via $Poet -> $MRVL Celestial Laser supplier to $NVDA backed Ayar for merchant models. Risk reward to me personally looks extremely promising.
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$SIVE牵手O-Net/Enablence布局CPO，标志硅光子CW DFB激光器供应链成型，替代EML瓶颈的新周期将至。
刚刚：$SIVE宣布与O-Net和Enablence达成CPO（共封装光学）重大合作。 Sivers将成为CPO的激光阵列供应商。 这实质上是论点验证，因为$SIVE成为InP CW DFB（连续波分布式反馈）激光器供应商，用于硅光子学。 简单来说，这就是当前光学瓶颈的$LITE -> $FN关系。 并且类似于现有的$POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO供应链，但位于亚洲。 Enablence生产"星形耦合器"，类似于$POET的插入器。 O-Net是一家大型组装商，将它们封装成成品模块。 香港的O-Net是华为、中兴通讯、Ciena、Nokia、 Fujitsu等公司的供应商。 （引用内容）： $SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 随着市场对未来潜在$LITE光子学公司的信息进行综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则针对即将到来的CPO/硅光子瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商确保EML（电吸收调制激光器）产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T收发器及上游产能，来自： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 这可能会触发需求量的突然全面范式转变。 $SIVE从InP CW DFB激光器中获益，用于SiPh（硅光子学）和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司，如$MRVL Celestial（购买$POET的插入器）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源实际上是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来，但我们知道它即将到来。 正如当前光学收发器周期所示： - $LITE和$COHR的光源公司获得的估值远高于专注于先进封装的$FN等公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但忽略了它们Starlight项目实际光源（类似$LITE类型）的来源。 风险存在，包括面临$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等多方竞争。所以再次强调，请务必自己做研究。 但我对此的反论点： Sivers足够早地根据$POET、Ayar和其他公司的规格定制激光器，在它们声名鹊起之前（类似于$POET到$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi（稳懋）认证的潜在赢面可以抵消这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 去年我做了$LITE的论点研究，并且仍然看好这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS（光学电路交换）。 但今年，我的重点是： $SIVE，作为我个人对新一轮光子学架构转变的CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对把握从当前EML周期轮动到即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子周期的个人观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: $SIVE announces major partnership with O-Net and Enablence for CPO. Sivers will be the laser array supplier for CPO. This is thesis validation in effect as $SIVE becomes InP CW DFB supplier for silicon photonics. In simpler terms, this is the $LITE -> $FN relationship for current optical bottlenecks. And mirrors the existing $POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO supply chain, but in Asia. Enablence makes the "Star Coupler", similar to $POET interposers. O-Net is a massive assembler, that packages them for the finished module. O-Net in HK is a supplier to companies like Huawei, ZTE, Ciena, Nokia, Fujitsu, and more.
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表示会长期持有 SIVE，因为它是 CPO / 硅光公司的激光供应商，正在等待放量时刻。
@AvalancheWealth 谢谢，我会长期持有 $SIVE，因为它是那些新兴 CPO / 硅光公司的激光供应商。 感觉就像是在等它到真正大规模下单、开始发光的时候。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AvalancheWealth Appreciate it, I'm long term holding $SIVE, since they're the laser supplier to up and coming CPO/silicon photonics companies. Just feels like waiting for its time to shine for mass order ramp.
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Sivers作为CW DFB激光器上游供应商，受益于向CPO/硅光子学的架构转换，与当前EML周期的Lumentum形成技术路线对比。
通常我不会回复喷子，但这个平台的虚伪确实令人印象深刻。 随机X平台散户： “为什么$Lite涨了1000%你之前不告诉我？” 我： “我在最早期就发布了这个可能的$Lite的论点，而且没有付费墙。” X平台散户： 😡，“我打算花$400付费墙来做多$ADBE并做空$PLTR”。 尤其是在我的$AXTI论点已经从$12涨到$50三个月后…… 我免费分享我所有的思考过程。 市场可以立即或以任何方式定价任何阿尔法。（我也会出错，尤其是像$ETOR这样从$65跌到$33的股票）。 然而，不是原来的模式——分析师以$2000+的价格向其他对冲基金出售论点，让他们慢慢建仓。 然后散户在$400亿+的估值买入，正如$Lite所呈现的那样。 我的账号之所以增长，是因为我是少数打破这种模式的分析师之一。我向所有人免费分发新颖的信息综合。 股票是正和游戏，如果论点方向正确，每个人都会受益。 （引用推文内容： $SIVE今天上涨+73.78%（市值$2.31亿）。 市场正在定价关于下一个潜在$Lite光子学的信息综合。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要从当前光学瓶颈中受益。 $SIVE的另一个激光源则是为即将到来的CPO/硅光子学瓶颈准备的。 Lumentum目前主要从$Nvidia和超大规模云服务商确保EML激光器产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在购买任何800G/1.6T收发器及以下上游产能： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 接下来是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转换需要大量高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能会引发容量需求的突然范式转变。 $SIVE受益于InP CW DFB激光器用于SiPh和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（采购$POET的中介层）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来。但我们知道它正在逼近。 正如当前光学收发器周期所见： - $LITE和$COHR的光源比专注先进封装的$FN等公司获得更高的估值。 市场一直关注$POET，但错过了它们获得类似$SIVE类型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括面临$Lite、$COHR、$AVGO等多源竞争。所以，再强调一次，请自己做研究。 但我反对这种观点的理由是： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求，在它们成名之前（有点像$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在容量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在优势抵消了这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做了$Lite的论点，至今仍喜欢这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为我个人的CW DFB激光器敞口，用于新的光子学架构转换。 我分享自己的想法，捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期的轮动。）
原推 ↗英文原文
Normally don’t respond to trolls, but the hypocrisy on this platform is pretty impressive. Random X retail: “Why didn’t you tell me about $LITE before it went up 1000% already?” Me: “Posts my thesis about the next possible $LITE at the very beginning, without paywalls.” X retail: 😡, “I’m going to pay $400 for a paywall to long $ADBE and short $PLTR instead”. Especially after my $AXTI thesis that already went from $12->$50 in 3 months... I distribute all my thought processes for free. And markets can price in any alpha immediately or however they want. (I get things wrong as well, especially with names like $ETOR that crashed from $65 to $33). However, instead of the original model where analysts sell a thesis for $2000+ to other hedge funds to slowly accumulate. Then retail buys at $40 billion+ as seen with $LITE. My account’s been growing because I’m one of the few analysts to break that model. And I distribute novel information synthesis for free to everyone. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.
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$SIVE是硅光子/CPO架构转变中的InP CW DFB激光器核心供应商，可能复制$LITE的估值扩张路径。
$SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 市场正在对下一个潜在的 photonics 瓶颈进行信息综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则面向即将到来的CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商那里获益，这些公司正在确保EML激光器的产能，用于当前的可插拔(optical transceiver)光收发器周期。 从当前的EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T光收发器及上游产能，从： -$AAOI（内部供应） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(Co-Packaged Optics,CPO)。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率连续波(CW) DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能引发一次完全的、突然的需求量范式转变。 $SIVE受益于用于SiPh和CPO的磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET使用$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装(advanced packaging)。 然后它们向上输送给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（后者购买$POET的interposers）。 然而，如果你追溯到上游，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光引擎($SIVE)；硅光子学封装($POET等)是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未达到。但我们知道它即将到来。 正如从当前光收发器周期所见： -$LITE和$COHR的光源需求获得的估值远高于$FN等专注先进封装的公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但错过了它们获取Starlight实际$ITE型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括与$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等公司面临多源竞争。所以再次强调，请务必做自己的研究。 但我对此的反驳： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求——早在这两家公司变得流行之前（类似于$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在成功可以抵消这一点。 为扩大产能而稀释股权的风险，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做过$LITE的研究，仍看好这只股票用于Google TPU ramp/光电路开关(OCS)。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为新一轮光子学架构转变的个人CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期轮动的思考。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is now up +73.78% today ($231M MC). As markets price in information synthesis of the next potential $LITE of photonics. If I had to explain the difference: One laser source in Lumentum primarily benefits from current optical bottlenecks. The other in $SIVE is for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonic bottleneck. Lumentum is largely benefiting right now from $NVDA and hyperscalers securing capacity of EML lasers for current pluggable optical transceivers cycles. As seen with the current EML bottleneck, hyperscalers are buying out any 800G/1.6T transceiver + upstream capacity from: - $AAOI (in-house) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers + design) -> $FN (assembly) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers) -> Innolight / Eoptolink What's next? Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics. The architectural shift to CPO requires massive arrays of high-power CW DFB lasers. And this would likely trigger a complete, sudden paradigm shift in volume demand. $SIVE benefits from InP CW DFB lasers for SiPh and CPO: The up and coming companies like: $AYAR, $POET source $SIVE lasers, but primarily do advanced packaging. Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers). However, if you go upstream, the light source is $SIVE. CW DFB lasers are light engine ( $SIVE ); the silicon photonics package ( $POET and others) is how it gets transmitted. CPO scale is not there yet. But we know it's coming. And as seen with current optical transceiver cycles: - Light sources from $LITE and $COHR demand much higher valuations than companies like $FN that focus on advanced packaging. Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight. The risks are present including facing multi-source competition with $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others. So again, make sure to do your own research. But my argument against that: Sivers been early enough to tailor custom lasers to fit $POET, Ayar, and other specifications before they got popular (sort like the $POET to $MRVL Celestial analogy). There's volume risks as well: But the potential Win Semi qualification offsets that. Dilution risk to scale capacity, is always present with every early-stage company as well. I did my thesis on $LITE last year and still love the stock for Google TPU ramp/OCS. But this year, I'm focusing on: $SIVE, as my personal CW DFB laser exposure for the new photonics architectural shift. I’m sharing my own thoughts on capturing the rotation from the current EML cycle to the upcoming CW DFB/Silicon Photonics cycle.
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认为SIVE硅光子激光器业务估值偏低，应高于POET等公司
感觉 $SIVE 应该比 $POET 获得高得多的估值，而后者主要集中在先进封装领域。$LITE 和 $COHR 因供应 EML 激光器而获得高额溢价。然后 $SIV 为硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)提供激光器……但估值只有 $POET 的 1/6……是 Ayar 的 1/20（当然他们是多源采购）。至于 $ACMR 则不够新，需要跟上。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feels like $SIVE should deserve a much higher valuation than $POET, which is mainly on the advanced packaging side. $LITE and $COHR get huge premiums for supplying EML lasers. Then $SIV does the lasers for silicon photonics/cpo… but is 1/6th the valuation of $POET… and 1/20th the valuation of ayar (granted they do multi-source though). As for $ACMR not as up to date, need to catch up
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作者认为 $SIVE 作为 NVIDIA 硅光子/CPO 架构中的激光器瓶颈供应商，有望成为下一个 $LITE。
$SIVE 现在已上涨 50%+，市值达到 1.9 亿美元（约 18 亿瑞典克朗）。 然而，我真心相信这可能是硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)领域的下一个 $LITE。 我持有该股票，因为我的个人牛市预期是市值 100 亿美元+。 因为 Sivers 处于由 $NVDA 主导的新一代光子架构的硅光子 CW DFB 激光器瓶颈位置。 这与 $COHR/$LITE 的 EML 激光器是当前光收发器瓶颈的情况类似。 他们已经是 Ayar、$POET（购买 $SIVE 激光器→先进封装进光学中介层）以及可能其他硅光子/CPO 玩家的激光供应商。 Win Semi 正在进行中的认证是最大的牛市因素之一，因为这使他们能够扩大产能。 时间会证明这个论点是否正确，但我个人认为这只股票被广泛忽视了。 这是我自己的个人论点，我不建议任何人跟随。 但如果你 DYOR（自己做研究），也许你会得出和我一样的结论：$SIVE 看起来是下一个 $LITE。 TLDR: InP 激光器是当前光子学的瓶颈，这从 $LITE 的估值可以看出。 $SIVE 看起来是即将到来的 CPO/硅光子学浪潮中的迷你 $LITE。 我个人在 $SIVE 建立了多头仓位，因为我相信他们是即将到来的由 $NVDA（借助 GTC 催化剂）推动的硅光子/CPO 架构变革的主要受益者之一。 对我来说，这个上行空间作为下一个可能的 $LITE 实在太诱人了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is now up 50%+, to a $190 million USD MC (~1.8B SEK -> USD). However, I genuinely believe this could be the next $LITE for silicon photonics/CPO. And I’m holding shares, as my personal bull case scenario is $10 billion+. As Sivers sits in the silicon photonics CW DFB laser bottleneck of the next gen photonic architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. This is compared to how $COHR / $LITE EML lasers are the current optical transceiver bottleneck. They’re already the laser supplier to Ayar, $POET (buys $SIVE lasers -> advanced packaging into optical interposers), and likely other silicon photonics/cpo players The Win semi ongoing qualification is one of the biggest bull cases, as this allows them to scale up capacity. Time will tell if this thesis turns out to be correct but I personally think this name is widely undiscovered. This is my own personal thesis and I’m not recommending anyone to tag along. But if you DYOR, maybe you’ll come to the same conclusion I did that $SIVE looks like the next $LITE.
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把 TSEM 和 SIVE 作为新选择，同时把 NBIS 视为自己最看好的 neocloud 多头。
@Ricky_Macchiato $TSEM 和 $SIVE 是我最近新选出来的两个名字。 $NBIS 则是我在 neocloud 赛道里最看多的标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ricky_Macchiato $TSEM and $SIVE are my two new choices. $NBIS is my #1 Neocloud sector long.
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分享本周新关注的3只股票，定位为硅光子学产业链细分标的
@MattReno264555 我个人新关注的是 Soitec ($SOI) 作为硅光子学衬底，以及 $SIVE 作为下一个 $LITE，用于CPO/硅光子学。还有 $TSEM 作为光子学领域的 $TSM。这是这周的分享。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MattReno264555 My personal new ones were Soitec ( $SOI ) for silicon photonics substrates and $SIVE as the next $LITE for CPO/Silicon photonics. As well as $TSEM as the $TSM for photonics This past week.
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指出全球 AI 供应链瓶颈遍布各地，SIVE 这类光源公司只是众多关键断点之一。
AI 供应链里的瓶颈和公司遍布全球。 正如你从 HBM 和日本的 Toto 马桶上看到的那样，很多都非常随机。 恰好，像 $LITE 这种给 Ayar、$POET 以及硅光 / CPO 公司供货的 cw dfb 激光供应商，也只是瑞典那边的一家公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Bottlenecks and companies in AI supply chains are around the world. As you've seen with HBM with Toto toilets, lot of them are very random. Just so happens the $LITE type cw dfb laser supplier to Ayar, $POET, and silicon photonic/cpo companies is some random company Sweden.
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说自己先把 SIVE thesis 给订阅者看，但不喜欢长期付费墙，所以会公开发出来。
@BonyBallf2 我是先把 $SIVE 的 thesis 分享给订阅者的。不过我不喜欢把信息整合永久锁在付费墙后面，所以我总会在之后把想法公开发出来。 https://t.co/MYHYzPOaWD
原推 ↗英文原文
@BonyBallf2 I shared my $SIVE thesis with my subscribers first. However, I don't like keeping my information synthesis permanently paywalled, so I always release my thoughts publicly afterward https://t.co/MYHYzPOaWD
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表示无法控制市场如何给免费公开研究定价，并认为自己只是把 Sivers 用可读方式梳理出来。
我没法控制市场如何给我公开发布的免费信息整合去定价。 WSB 那帮人已经关注 $POET 一阵子了，也提过 $SIVE，但没人把 Sivers Photonics 以一种容易读懂的方式梳理出来。我也觉得他们错过了时机。 随着资金轮动到硅光 / CPO，我个人觉得现在是合适的时候。 我持有多头仓位，但我并不是建议别人也去做这笔交易。我只是想分享我的研究和想法。
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I can't control how the market prices in free public information synthesis posted publicly. The WSB crowd has been on $POET (and talked about $SIVE) for a little bit, but nobody was synthesizing Sivers Photonics in a readable way. I also think they missed the timing. With capital rotating into silicon photonics/CPO, I felt it was the right time personally. I hold a long position, but I am not recommending others take this trade. I just wanted to share my research and ideas
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因为在斯德哥尔摩市场且知名度低，SIVE 可能被很多机构忽视，但自己不建议他人盲买。
不幸的是，它是在瑞典的斯德哥尔摩市场。 这也是我认为 $SIVE 很可能被很多机构忽视的原因，即使它是给 Ayar、$POET 和其他 CPO / 硅光公司供 cw dfb 激光的供应商。 不过考虑到规模和潜在稀释风险，我不建议别人去买。 我只是觉得这家公司很有意思，因为我认为它看起来像下一个可能的 $LITE。 只是想分享我的 thesis！
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Unfortunately it's on Stockholm in Sweedish markets. Which is why I think $SIVE is probably undiscovered by many institutions, even if they are the cw dfb laser supplier to Ayar, $POET, and other CPO/silicon photonics companies. That being said, because of the size and potential dilution risks, not recommending others to buy. I just found this company compelling, as I thought it looks the next possible $LITE. Wanted to share my thesis!
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作者认为$SIVE是CPO时代的迷你$LITE，当前$140M估值严重低估，上涨空间巨大。
我做多$SIVE，成本$140M。 我认为这是下一个被市场和机构忽视的$LITE。 $SIVE生产磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器。 最接近的类比是当前EML激光器瓶颈中的$LITE。 但不是向Innolight/Eoptolink供应当前光模块的光源。 他们向$POET Starlight、Ayar SuperNova供应激光器。 以及为$NVDA主导的未来CPO/硅光子(silicon photonics)架构中的其他厂商供货。 就我个人而言，当前估值完全没有道理。 $POET是$SIVE这类激光器的先进封装...但$POET的估值是其激光器制造商本身的11倍多？ 这感觉就像把一个更先进的$FN（估值约$200亿）封测厂定价为$4000亿，而$LITE的估值才$400亿。 所以现在$130M的情况下： - 你拥有一个类似迷你$LITE的激光器供应商，通过$POET向Marvell Celestial + 超大规模云厂商供货。 - 向Ayar（$NVDA、$INTC）供应激光器，虽然他们也与$LITE、住友、$MTSI等多源采购。 以及其他潜在的新兴供应商，比如他们曾在财报中提及的Lightmatter（如2023年Q2财报）。这点未经证实，但供应链BOM是保密的。 此外，就收入而言，他们预计“未来几年”管道收入$453M。 而且，他们通过WIN（Win Semi）进行产能扩张：“Win Semi foundry正在认证中，为Sivers的激光器设计进行批量生产。” Sivers感觉就像是硅光子/CPO时代的$LITE，拥有Celestial（通过$POET）、Ayar等实际快速增长客户，未来还会有更多。 去年我可能不会喜欢它，但就在3周前，他们成功将所有债务再融资为$12M可转换贷款（10.85%）和$5M定期贷款（12%），理清了债务。 总计$17M，这在美股市场感觉不算什么，而$AAOI每隔一周就在做$5亿ATM增发。 最重要的是，这是他们面向硅光子/光子的纯正InP激光器业务。 他们的激光雷达(Lidar)业务正在爬坡，预计产生$53-138M的收入。 下行风险： - 执行力（老生常谈） - 为扩大产能与$LITE等竞争而导致的稀释 - $NVDA刚给他们$40亿后，$LITE、$COHR在规模上的竞争 - CPO上量延迟 我完全不明白，$LWLG这家零收入的概念股与$TSEM在一起，估值怎会达到$10亿以上。 也不明白$POET怎会比他激光器供应商的价值高出约9-10倍。 而$SIVE，作为CPO/硅光子的迷你$LITE等价物，估值才$140M。 我确实认为这在机构中基本未被发掘，因为这是一家OMX Nordic交易所的不知名公司（类似于我在开始发布关于InP衬底瓶颈之前的小市值$AXTI）。 但我确实认为，随着Celestial和Ayar规模扩大，他们会获得很多机构关注。 特别是如果$POET和$SIVE获得其他客户认证的话。 如果CPO在未来超大规模云厂商架构中完全取代可插拔光模块。 Sivers，如果通过WIN Semi认证并成为NVIDIA、Marvell、Intel和Broadcom架构的多元采购激光器供应商，就可能被大幅重新定价。 就像$LITE今天从$16涨到$622一样。 这只是我分享的个人逻辑，DYOR/NFI（非投资建议）。 TLDR： InP激光器是光子学中当前的瓶颈，从$LITE的估值可见一斑。 $SIVE看起来像是即将到来的CPO/硅光子爬坡中的迷你$LITE。 我个人在$SIVE建了多头，因为我认为他们是$NVDA即将到来的硅光子/CPO架构变革（加上GTC催化剂）的主要受益者。 对我来说，这里的上涨空间作为下一个可能的$LITE实在太过诱人了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself? It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. So now at $130m: - - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt. It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. Downside risk: - execution (as always) - dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B - CPO ramp gets delayed. I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
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博主表示暂不了解SIVE，认为其非主要玩家但会研究。
@Plaskpojken 我目前对 $SIVE 还一无所知。$POET 尚非行业巨头，因此作为其衍生项目，Sivers 大概率不会是主要玩家。不过我会去研究一下。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Plaskpojken I don't know anything about $SIVE yet. $POET isn't exactly a big name yet so by derivative, Sivers likely wouldn't be a major player. But I'll give it a look.