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长期更偏好英伟达上游瓶颈而非NVDA本身。
回复 @darkseidzz：嗯，长期看，相比做多 $NVDA，我更喜欢你所有的上游瓶颈环节，因为这些会被重估得最多（英伟达已经是世界最大公司）。 我很确定，超大云厂商 ASIC 最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求，比如 $GOOGL 的 TPU、$AMZN 的 Trainium 项目。
英文原文
@darkseidzz hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too
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强调基本面比技术分析更重要。
回复 @dong7da7：我以前会在图表上画些傻东西，比如宝可梦，来开玩笑说人们怎么做技术分析。 因为大多数时候，技术分析其实没有意义，基本面才是最重要的！ 那张喷火龙图片，是我在 $GOOGL 156美元时点名它的梗。
英文原文
@dong7da7 I used to draw silly things on charts like Pokemon on charts to joke about how people do TAs. Because most of the time, technical analysis doesn’t actually mean anything, since fundamentals are the most important! That Charizard photo was my $GOOGL callout back at $156.
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高盛上调四大云厂商资本开支预期，利好上游半导体供应链。
是的……我认为你们所有上游半导体供应链公司都会涨得更高。 高盛现在预计，2025到2030年四大超大云厂商 $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN 的资本开支合计将达到5.3万亿美元。 这一数字从一季度财报后的4.5万亿美元上调。
英文原文
Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. https://t.co/UtkU1IU2V5
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认为市场误读博通CEO评论，云厂商多源化不可避免。
回复 @lousyjets：不是，人们误读了 $AVGO CEO 的评论。 总体需求是贪得无厌的，但超大云厂商不想被卡住，所以 $GOOGL 和其他公司进行多源采购是不可避免的。 博通的利润继续增长，但因为蛋糕持续变大，联发科……
英文原文
@lousyjets No, people are misinterpreting $AVGO CEO comments. Demand is insatiable in general, but hyperscalers don't want to be bottlenecked, so it's inevitable $GOOGL and others multi-source. Broadcom's bottom line keeps increasing, but because the pie keeps increasing, Mediatek,
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讨论高通与字节/亚马逊相关机会及光子学收购。
回复 @madridraptor：如果我没记错，$QCOM 是字节跳动，也可能是 $AMZN，不是 $GOOGL TPU。 不过我真的不喜欢高通对中国的敞口有多大。但他们做了一些非常重要的光子学收购，比如 Alphawave（类似 Marvell 收购 Celestial）……
英文原文
@madridraptor $QCOM was Bytedance and maybe $AMZN if i remember correctly, not $GOOGL TPU. I'm really not a fan of how much exposure Qualcomm has to China though. But they made some really important photonics acqusitions like Alphawave (similar to what marvell did with celestial)... for
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说明NBIS对应META/MSFT，谷歌通过Fluidstack与CIFR/WULF做机房交易。
回复 @JonahK44：$NBIS 是 $META 和 $MSFT。 $GOOGL 通过 Fluidstack 做了很多交易，从 $CIFR 到 $WULF，获取更多托管机房。我猜是为了接入更多 TPU。
英文原文
@JonahK44 $NBIS is $META and $MSFT. $GOOGL has done a lot of Fluidstack deals with $CIFR to $WULF for more Colo. my guess is to plug in a lot more of their TPUS
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谷歌为AI资本开支融资，利好上游生态。
我从没想过会看到 $GOOGL 需要为 AI 资本开支融资800亿美元的这一天…… 然后沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 在为超大云厂商 AI 建设提供资金。 - 400亿美元 ATM、300亿美元发行、伯克希尔100亿美元 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO、联发科、$TSM、$MU 的上游生态应该会一路受益。
英文原文
I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. https://t.co/CxvctNZyMC
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Ayar与Wiwynn公告对SIVE CPO机架级部署潜力重大。
Ayar 今天与 Wiwynn 的公告，对 $SIVE 在 CPO -> 机架级部署方面可能非常重要。 Wiwynn 的云客户包括 $AMZN、$META、$MSFT。 而且他们一直在谈 $GOOGL TPU 部署。 我认为，仅供参考架构来看，每个机架大约需要512+个 SuperNova 光源。 所以如果 $SIVE 是主要激光阵列供应商（我们预计如此，因为 Macom + Lumentum 已从 Ayar 网站移除）。 即使是中等规模的机架部署，也会对收入非常有意义。 这只是 $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn 当前机架级商业化潜力，还不会体现在收入财务中。
英文原文
Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.
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以富途/老虎监管风险为例说明应尽量避免中国敞口。
感觉 $FUTU 和 $TIGR 有点麻烦？中国政府正在追溯它们的历史收入。 中国基本没有公平法律（尤其是知识产权方面），所以如果政府想做某件事，法院会对它们不利。 因此几乎没有上诉机会，除非它们私下达成隐藏交易。我也不认为这些券商能像 $GOOGL 面对20 decillion 罚款那样处理，因为它们有本地运营。 所以简而言之：这是一个好教训，要尽量避免从 $BABA 到 $PDD 的中国敞口…… 而且正如 $META + Manus + 这次案例所示，即使某些东西看起来便宜，也有原因。 这也是为什么所有美国股票都有溢价，即便有点高。
英文原文
Feels like $FUTU and $TIGR are kinda screwed? The Chinese Gov is going after their historical revenues. There's basically no fair law in China (esp. with IP), so if Gov wants something done, courts will be rigged against them. So no chance of an appeal, unless they make a hidden deal. Also don't think the brokerages are able to pull a $GOOGL like their 20 decillion fine, given local operations So TLDR: Good lesson learned to avoid Chinese exposure from $BABA to $PDD as much as possible... And (as seen with $META + Manus + this case), even if something looks cheap. There's a reason why all the US equities have premiums, even if a little high.
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批评台湾金融监管的荒唐规则
台湾金融行业的规则真是离谱。 他们竟然把联发科这样的大公司都卖掉了，笑死。 这就像美国因为 Google 涨太多，就不让人再买 $GOOGL 一样。 然后还导致 Google 股价下跌。 他们难道不希望自己公司的估值上涨、让本国经济受益吗？ 尤其在半导体大牛市的这个阶段，明明每一周都很关键，这种规则其实是在拖自己高科技经济的后腿。 真有意思，自己的规则反而在伤害自己的高科技经济。
英文原文
Taiwan financial sector rules are hilariously stupid. They literally dispositioned Mediatek, one of their largest companies lmfao. It's like if the US stopped letting people buy $GOOGL because the stock went up. Then that caused Google's stock dropped after. Wouldn't they want their companies to appreciate in value, so their economy benefits? Especially during one of their largest bull-runs from the semi sector, it's actually hindering their own growth where every week matters. Interesting to see such backward rules hurting their own high-tech economy.
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认为只要 thesis 不破，公司就能继续成长
我不确定大家有没有意识到，只要一个 thesis 没有彻底被证伪，像 $NBIS 这种公司就可以继续成长。 看看过去 15 年的 $AMZN 或 $GOOGL 就知道。 如果你老是“减仓”，往往会先触发税负。很多回撤其实还没大到抵消你已经交掉的税。 等所谓“50% 暴跌”真的发生时，价格可能早就已经复利了几百甚至几千个百分点。 如果你需要花钱，只要仓位到了七位数、八位数甚至九位数，你完全可以借着这些资产去融资，同时继续让它们升值。 NFA，只是我个人观点。你们自己随意，但这非常、非常取决于你选的公司。 像 $IREN 这种垃圾就没法这么做。不过我确实认为 $NBIS 已经站在成为下一个 hyperscaler 的位置上了。
英文原文
Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing. Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years. If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid. By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent. If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate. NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick. Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.
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解释为什么每条帖子都会有人追问同样的问题
我不明白为什么每一条帖子下面，从 $AAOI 到 $LPK，大家都会问这种问题？ 我已经说过很多次了，$FLNC 宣布拿下两个新的 hyperscaler 合同之后，我是有仓位的。 但我确实觉得 $FLNC 很有吸引力，因为从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN，hyperscaler 一般不会签小单。 尤其是看 $MSFT 和 $NBIS 的合同，很多内容都让人非常意外。
英文原文
Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post? I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals. But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general. Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.
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认为 FLNC 应该更高估值
我其实觉得 $FLNC 应该更值钱。 一个季度里接连拿到 2 个直接 hyperscaler 合同，这个意义非常大。 $MSFT 到 $AMZN 不会签小单。 当然市场通常会等更多实际新闻 / 采购订单数字出来，怕它最后没落实或者比预期低。 但一家公司的确不会无缘无故宣布 2 个 hyperscaler MSA，还说订单会在 Q3 到。 而且一个季度赢得多个 hyperscaler 合同，本身就是后续更多合同的领先指标，尤其是 Fluence BESS 越来越标准化的时候。 考虑到空头比例大约 27.69%，我不确定财报前的空头是否真的敢冒这个险…… 如果像 $GOOGL 这样的 hyperscaler 签下大合同，我觉得有机会来一波历史级上涨。
英文原文
I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.
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AXTI 和 GOOGL 两个判断让自己在 X 上出名
@pepemoonboy 谢谢，我其实挺为这个感到骄傲。$AXTI 让我在 X 上出名。 我在 $GOOGL 150 美元时的判断，让我先在 $RDDT 上出了名，后来它又涨到了 400。 希望以后能有一篇关于青蛙的。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks, im proud of this one. $AXTI made me famous on X. My $GOOGL call at $150 made me famous on $RDDT before that just went up to $400. Hope to see one about a frog next
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认为 FLNC 的两份 hyperscaler 合同会压制空头
@pennycheck 对，不太明白为什么很多基金喜欢做空美国能源公司的方向性。 未来几个月内如果这两份 hyperscaler 合同落实，虽然数量还不清楚，但对他们来说大概会很吓人。这样可能会让他们逐步降低 $FLNC 的风险敞口，反而增加买盘。
英文原文
@pennycheck Yeah not sure why many funds like directionality shorting US energy companies... Having 2 hyperscaler deals convert sometime in the next few months with unknown figures is probably scary for them. Would probably make them derisk $FLNC over time, adding to buying pressure.
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在财报后看多 FLNC，认为双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
同意大方向，$FLNC 在财报后按 30 亿美元市值看其实挺有吸引力的。 能在这么小的市值上拿到 2 份直接 hyperscaler 合同，非常罕见。 $56 亿以上 backlog 已经降低了公司增长的风险，还不算新的 hyperscaler backlog，比如 $GOOGL 或 $MSFT。 这些 hyperscaler 合同是框架协议，很可能会在今年 Q3 很快转换，而且还没计入当前数字。 一旦公布，就是重大正面催化，类似半导体公司里的 qualification -> volume ramp。 Citi 分析师说："hyperscaler 订单的可能性会压过这一季度的几乎一切。我们预计公告会带来正面反应"。 我猜它们会在未来 3 个月内公布 hyperscaler 订单，之后大概率会被重估，所以我上了这艘船，把它当成短期催化交易。 如果按软件业务扩张后净利润约 2.88 亿美元（营收 60 亿美元，毛利率 13.0%）计算，2027 年前瞻市盈率大概 11.6 倍。 当前股价比 2 月价格低了 50%，但考虑到 hyperscaler 和 backlog 都在降低风险，我觉得这是一个很好的入场点（NFA）。
英文原文
Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look. Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals... The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT. The hyperscaler deals were framework agreements, which are likely to convert "soon" Q3 this year, and aren't included in numbers. Once that's released it's major positive catalyst, similar to qualification -> volume ramp in semi players. Citi Analyst: "The possibility of a hyperscaler order will likely overshadow everything else in the quarter. We expect a positive reaction to the announcement" I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months so I jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade. (not just 1 but 2) Also, if they hit ~$288M net income off gross-margin expansion ($6B revenue, 13.0% gross margins) from their software segment expansion, ~11.6x fwd p/e for 2027. The current stock price is -50% Feb's prices despite hyperscalers + backlog de-risking the company looks like a great entry point to me (NFA).
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博主惊讶发现刚提到的Faker和Aespa竟然一起代言$GOOGL广告
等一下...这感觉好奇怪，我刚聊了Faker和Aespa，结果他们突然一起接了$GOOGL的广告。
英文原文
Wait a sec… This feels so weird I talk about Faker and Aespa and suddenly they’re doing $GOOGL ads together. https://t.co/U9TJ1XHUDj
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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Lightmatter 似乎在用 SIVE 激光器
从这些参考资料看……Lightmatter 似乎确实在用 $SIVE 的激光器？ 这是全新的信息发现，对 Sivers 来说极其正面。 Lightmatter 是一家体量巨大的私营龙头（2024 年估值大约 44 亿美元），而 $TSM、$GFS、$TSEM、$AMKR 和 $ASX 都在扩展它的光学项目。 而 Lightmatter 的确需要光源…… $SIVE 还恰好和 $LITE 一起出现在 $GFS 的激光源供应商名单里，所以这些线索开始拼起来了？ 终端用户很可能就是你的超大规模云厂商，比如 $MSFT、$GOOGL（他们投资了）、$META 等，通过 Lightmatter-GUC 等路径进入。 我不认为市场已经把这些都定价进去了，因为整个供应链 BOM 都非常保密，而且很多只是推测。 但当 CPO 和下一代光子架构开始放量时，量产爬坡带来的营收会突然出现在资产负债表上。
英文原文
From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers? Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers. Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program. And Lightmatter does require a light source... $SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together? End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others. I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative. But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
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忘了 GOOGL
@peedgdev 我把 $GOOGL 忘了，等他们所有转录本都发布完我会再做一次跟进。 有意思的是，Google 上居然正好显示了这条帖子。 https://t.co/SPMfIbmkj9
英文原文
@peedgdev I forgot about $GOOGL, I’ll do a follow up once all their transcripts are published. It’s funny how they’re showing this post on Google though. https://t.co/SPMfIbmkj9
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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AAPL 使用 SIVE InP 激光阵列
秘密是，$AAPL 🍎 正在用 $SIVE 的 InP 激光阵列来大规模生产消费硬件（高置信度）。 按估计和图表来看，发布时间大概在 2027 年下半年。 想象一下 Apple 每年以 5000 万台以上的规模生产消费硬件…… 还是用一家市值 8.5 亿美元的激光供应商，哈哈。 然后 Apple 一旦这么做，$GOOGL、三星以及其他公司也会跟着上。
英文原文
The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence). Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided. Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year… Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol. Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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博主炫耀自己早前推荐的IQE等股票被机构买入，强调研究前瞻性。
各位，大家都曾质疑我推荐的像$IQE这样的股票。 但为什么…我发了研究报告之后，瑞银或Point72这些机构都买入了？ 不知道瑞典媒体是否在做空$SIVE，但他们意识到是谁发掘了$AXTI的价值吗？ 我非常有信心，机构可能很快会跟进，因为Sivers的激光器为$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar等公司提供动力…这些都与$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN及其他超大规模企业有关联。
英文原文
Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE. Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts? Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI? I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others… with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
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ARM 因 CPU 瓶颈受益
在新的瓶颈重新回到 CPU 的背景下，我看好 $ARM。微软的材料里也显示，编排 / RAG 这类东西需要 CPU。 但我预测本地推理的一部分会越来越多地由 CPU 来处理……随着 Gemma 之类的模型未来变得更轻量。 不是每个机器人都需要解开宇宙的奥秘。 数据中心会需要海量的传统 CPU 算力（AWS Graviton、$GOOGL Axion 和 $MSFT Cobalt 都是 ARM 架构）。 $META 和 OpenAI 也是 AGI CPU 的买家。 而 AI 还会继续下沉到边缘端。 150 亿美元的年收入目标……现在看起来越来越合理了？
英文原文
Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs. But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get lightweight in the future. Not every robot needs to be able to solve the mysteries of the universe. Data centers will need an astronomical amount of traditional CPU compute (AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt), which are all ARM based. $META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU. And AI will flow down to edge. $15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?
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连续催化都对 SIVE 有利
这真的是巧合，催化剂一个接一个（$JBL）之后是纳斯达克上市，然后是（$GOOGL + $MRVL），再然后是（$GFS），再然后是（$GFS + $AMD）。 再加上 $NVDA 在到处投资 CPO。 我只是 OFC 之后才做多，没想到后面会有这么多事情，哈哈。
英文原文
It's legit coincidence that it's catalyst ( $JBL ) after catalyst (Nasdaq listing) after catalyst ( $GOOGL + $MRVL ), after catalyst ( $GFS ), after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD ). Alongside $NVDA investing into CPO everywhere. I just timed my long after OFC but did not expect all of this lol.
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GOOGL ASIC 新闻对 SIVE 不够计价
我很惊讶 $SIVE 没有因为 $GOOGL 和 Marvell 的 ASIC 新闻而涨得更高。 甚至连 $MRVL 隔夜都涨了 6.24%+。 市场大概还不知道上游激光源到底来自哪里，对吧？ https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
英文原文
Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet? https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
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SIVE 供应链里很多都很强
我一直在告诉大家…… $SIVE 供应链里有很多东西都很有吸引力，适合做多。 Win Semi（3105）一天涨 10%，然后涨停。 虽然它们显然是为 $AVGO 或 SpaceX 供货，但光子学爬坡是由 $NVDA 领头，随后是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT。 这会让光子学成为 Win 的一个巨大增长引擎。
英文原文
I'm telling you all... Lot of stuff in the $SIVE supply chains make very compelling longs. Win Semi (3105) just goes up 10% a day then halts trading after hitting its max. Obviously they do things for $AVGO or SpaceX, but photonics ramp spearheaded by $NVDA and followed by $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT Would make photonics a massive growth vector for Win.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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MRVL 和 GOOGL 更关键
@StocksAREnuts 我在 $80 的时候就看好 $MRVL，直到现在也是，主要是因为 $MSFT Maia。 但如果 $GOOGL 成为 2028 年之后有更强收入可见性的客户，那帮助也很大。 它们都还是基于 CPO / AI 光子学那条线。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts I liked $MRVL back at $80 and even here, mainly because of $MSFT Maia. But having $GOOGL as a likely customer for revenue visibility past 2028 helps a lot too. They're really milking that Celestial acquisition.
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Marvell与Google洽谈TPU开发，Sivers有望成为光子光源供应商
$MRVL正在洽谈为$GOOGL开发TPU（张量处理单元），涵盖两种不同的芯片型号。 如果谈判顺利，$SIVE很可能成为Google供应链的光源供应商。 尤其因为其定制ASIC（专用集成电路）可能推动Celestial IP在MPU（微处理器单元）架构中实现规模扩展（光子结构，Photonic Fabric）。这与$POET和Sivers两家公司的布局都相吻合。 定制ASIC需要数年时间，因此来自Google的实质性营收可能要等到2028年下半年。 供应商可能采用多元采购策略，但拥有Google作为潜在终端客户是一个超越2028年的结构性多年催化剂。 市场通常具有前瞻性。
英文原文
$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models. High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well. Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers. Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028. Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028. Markets are typically forward looking.
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这是基于已确认协议的映射
@crux_capital_ 这就是基于已确认协议做的供应链映射。 $GOOGL 不会在新闻稿里突然跑出来说它的上游基板供应商是 $AXTI。 我在上面的说法里会用“很可能”这样的词，哪怕对第一轮量产周期来说几乎已经是板上钉钉。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ It’s supply chain mapping off confirmed agreements. $GOOGL won’t go out and randomly say in a press releases their upstream substrate provider is $AXTI. I use words like likely in my statements above even though it’s near certain for the first production cycles
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认为 Cerebras 在 35B 估值下仍有吸引力，但问题在 OpenAI。
@C3PIOX 如果 Cerebras 的年化收入是 60-100 亿美元，而估值是 350 亿美元，这当然很有吸引力。 如果核心客户是 $GOOGL，我会买…… 问题在于，核心客户是 OpenAI。
英文原文
@C3PIOX $6-10B ARR is very attractive for Cerebras at $35B. If this were $GOOGL as the core customer id be buying… The issue is, this is OpenAi.
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分析ALRIB作为超大规模云厂商关键供应商的量子/硅光投资逻辑，预期被重估。
其实不需要对 $ALRIB 写得很详细吧？ >Riber 与 $VECO 在 MBE 设备上形成有效的盈利双头垄断格局，此前交易时远期倍数较低。 >从公开信息发现 $MSFT Quantum 是 Riber 的核心超大规模云厂商买家 >其他客户包括 $IQE、QD Laser（量子点）、IntelliEPI 等。 思考过程： 还有哪些市值低于10亿美元的公司直接向 $GOOGL、$MSFT 等超大规模云厂商供应产品，用于他们的前沿(frontier)项目？ 而且这些供应商是否关键到无法被替代？ 除了 $AEHR 我真的想不出其他公司，但 $AEHR 现在市值已经从6亿美元涨到23亿美元了…… 所以我认为 $ALRIB 对于量子/硅光子领域的敞口很有吸引力。 如果一家市值约3亿美元的盈利公司正在为超大规模云厂商的前沿量子项目提供支持…… 很可能在未来某个时间点被重新估值到三位数（美元）。
英文原文
It doesn't need to be detailed with $ALRIB? > Riber effective, profitable duopoly with $VECO on MBE equipment, that traded at low fwd multiples. > $MSFT Quantum as core hyperscaler buyer of Riber from public information discovery > $IQE, QD Laser (Quantum dot), IntelliEPI and others using it. Thought process: What other companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers like $GOOGL to $MSFT for their frontier programs? And are critical suppliers that can't be replaced? Can't really name any aside from $AEHR, but that's now $2.3B from $600m... So thought $ALRIB was compelling for Quantum/Silicon Photonics exposure. If a profitable ~300m company is powering a hyperscaler's quantum frontier program… Probably going to get re-rated triple digits over time.
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说 ALRIB 是量子链条里最喜欢的名字。
$ALRIB 是我在这个赛道里最喜欢的名字，尤其是在市场发现 $MSFT Quantum 会从他们那里采购之后。 现在还稍微有点早，但做机器设备销售的公司会受益于今天整个研发 capex 周期，而且你不需要在 $IONQ、$RGTI、$QBTS、$GOOGL 或其他赢家之间二选一。
英文原文
$ALRIB is my favorite for that sector, especially now that markets found out $MSFT Quantum buys from them. It's still a bit early, but the machine sellers benefit from the entire R&D capex cycle today and you don't need to pick between $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS, $GOOGL or others winning.
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把 SIVE 与 JBL 的供货关系视作结构性转变。
这终于算是 $SIVE 的供应链映射验证了。 $JBL 真的******巨大，而 Sivers 激光现在大概率会进入 Jabil 的 hyperscaler 客户，比如 $AMZN、$GOOGL。 这是一个非常结构性的变化，如果官方确认下来，我个人会把 Sivers 估到 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
This is finally supply chain mapping validation with $SIVE. $JBL is ****** massive and Sivers lasers now will likely go into Jabil's hyperscalers clients like $AMZN, $GOOGL. This is such a structural change and I would personally value Sivers over $2B+ after official confirmation.
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认为 Enplas 的双瓶颈与客户结构很有意思。
Enplas（6961）在大约 9.85 亿美元市值时看起来挺有意思。 它们握着两个瓶颈： 1. MLA（微透镜阵列）的主导供应商。比如 SiPH switch、1.6T、3.2T 光子产品。 2. IC 测试 socket 的寡头供应商（AI 芯片测试） 手头现金大约 1.55 亿美元，没有债务。股东权益/资产比大约 89%（一般 50%+ 就算稳），所以我觉得下行风险很低。 而且它们推测的客户是： 1. 光子（MLA）：高度可能是 Innolight、Eoptolink、Furukawa、Intel（SiPh）。大概率还有 $COHR、$LITE。 2. GPU/ASIC（测试 socket）：大概率是 $TSM、ASE，以及这些类型用来测试 $NVDA GPU、$GOOGL TPU（Google Ironwood 很可能就是这个方向）。 “为主要 GPU 制造商以及 hyperscaler 的 ASIC 相关项目扩大量产订单。” 然后在 OFC： OFC： “我们将展示支持当今 AI 快速技术进步的 800Gbps 和 1.6Tbps 收发器以及 CPO（共封装光学）的新产品。” 本质上你得到的是一家同时服务一线半导体、晶圆厂和 hyperscaler 的公司，并且它能同时受益于 MLA 光子段带来的 1.6T，以及之后 OFC 产品带来的 CPO TAM 扩张。 这是我想分享的一笔持仓，因为它在不到 10 亿美元市值时就显得挺酷。
英文原文
Enplas (6961) at ~$985M seems kinda interesting. They hold two chokepoints: 1. Dominant supplier for MLAs (micro lens arrays). Eg. SiPH switches, 1.6T, 3.2T for photonics. 2. Oligopoly supplier for IC Test sockets (AI Chip Testing) Cash on hand: ~$155M, no debt. Equity-to-Asset Ratio: ~89% (50%+ usually is solid), so low downside risk imo. And their speculated customers: 1, Photonics (MLAs): Highly probable: Innolight, Eoptolink, Furukawa, Intel (SiPh). And prob $COHR, $LITE. 2. GPU/ASICs (Test Sockets): prob $TSM, ASE, types use these to likely test $NVDA GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs (Google Ironwood is highly probable). "expanding mass production orders for major GPU manufacturers, and for ASIC-related projects for hyperscalers." Then at OFC: OFC: “We will be showcasing our new products for 800Gbps and 1.6Tbps transceivers and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) that support today’s rapid technological advancements in AI.” Basically you have a company that supplies T1 semis, foundries, hyperscalers, that benefits from 1.6T from MLA photonics segment + CPO TAM expansion later from OFC products. Was one my positions wanted to share my thoughts about since it seemed p cool at sub <$1B MC.
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用 1.69 亿美元撬动西方 hyperscaler 供应链。
Serenity 指南： 如何只用 1.7 亿美元就让西方 hyperscaler buildout 变得更脆弱。 只要用 1.69 亿美元拿下 Nippon Chemical（4092）！ 做 InP 衬底需要：铟和高纯磷。 你以为 $AXTI 是瓶颈？NCI 才是瓶颈里的瓶颈。 NCI 实际上是高纯红磷卡点的领头羊，份额大约 26-27%（Rasa 更少，其余就是中国）。 而且它们向 $AXTI、Sumitomo、JX 供应这些材料，用来做 InP 衬底。 所以……如果你拿出 1.6 亿美元收购 NCI（再加上 Rasa 作为更小产能），你就能移除西方世界生产 6N/7N 红磷、也就是制造 InP 衬底所需的主力产能！ 没有 InP 衬底：就没有 photonics。 有趣的是：中国科技公司其实也会被 NCI 打乱。 对 $AXTI 来说，这个映射 / 依赖关系其实非常有意思： - AXT 的 Tongmei 在 STAR Market 上市时就披露过，它在结构上依赖从日本进口高纯前驱体材料 - WITS 数据显示，大约 460 美元 / 公斤的高纯磷正从日本流向中国 所以它们确实在暗中依赖 NCI。 中国虽然也有 Wylton Chemical、Qin Xi New Materials、Jinding Electronics、Chuxiong Chuanzhi、Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials 这类产能。 但这些都还是更小的玩家，没法在规模化 InP 衬底生产上替代 NCI 提供的高纯红磷产能。 $LITE 的 CEO 之前就说过 InP 衬底让他夜不能寐。 所以现在有了 NCI，你就能让他永久失眠？ 只要 1.69 亿美元。 所以供应链大概是这样： -> DGC 磷矿开采后运给 NCI -> NCI 把黄磷精炼成高纯红磷 -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT 把红磷和铟熔合，长成 InP 衬底 -> $COHR / $LITE 把 InP 衬底做成激光器 -> Innolight / Fabrinet 把它们封装成 800G / 1.6T 收发器 -> $NVDA / $GOOGL 用在 ASIC / GPU 集群里。 基本上，整个西方都依赖 NCI 来制造用于 photonics 的 InP 衬底。 我持有一点很小的仓位，纯属好玩。不过日本并不以随意提价著称。 所以如果你真的买下这家公司然后把价格抬高 15000%（比如政府意识到后把公司收回去），大概率会碰到监管问题，比如 FEFTA…… 也许提价 30-50% 还能压缩一下 forward P/E？但大概率不会最后变成 $AXTI 那样。 不管怎样，这家公司按大概 1.6 亿美元市值定价，本身就是一个巨大的国家安全风险。 至于基本面，它们市净率 0.54、forward P/E 11.4，所以其实也可能是被低估了。 TLDR： -> 它是下一个 $AXTI 吗？不是。 -> 它是不是西方 hyperscaler buildout + photonics 里一个未知的结构性瓶颈和关键漏洞？是。 -> 还有没有重估空间？ 只要回到 1 倍市净率，立刻就有 80-85% 的上涨空间。如果再给它更高的 forward P/E，可能更多。 总之，用 1.69 亿美元找到 hyperscaler 供应链里的一个主要失效点，挺好玩的。
英文原文
A Guide by Serenity: How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m. Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m! For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus. Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck. NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China). And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates. So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates! And without InP substrates: no photonics. Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI. For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting: - AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing - WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China So they secretly do depend on NCI. China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well. However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale. $LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night. So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia? For just $169M. So here's what the supply chain looks like: -> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI -> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates -> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers -> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers -> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU clusters. And basically, the entire West depends on NCI to make InP substrates for photonics. I hold some very small positions, just for fun. However, Japan is not well known for price hiking. So you’d probably run into regulatory problems eg. FEFTA if you bought the company and hiked prices 15000% (like government seizing back the company once they realize)… Maybe 30-50% hikes is possible to compress fwd p/e? But very likely wont end up like $AXTI. Regardless, this company is a massive, massive national security risk priced at ~$160m. As for fundamentals, they’re trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it’s probably undervalued anyway. TLDR: -> Is it the next $AXTI? No. -> Is it an unknown structural bottleneck + critical vulnerability of the Western hyperscaler buildout with photonics? Yes. -> Is there still room for re-rating? Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside. Maybe more if you give it multiples past 11 fwd p/e. Regardless, it’s fun to find a major point of failure in the hyperscaler supply chains for $169m.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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通过LinkedIn追踪发现$MSFT量子项目的未披露供应商，分析其在量子MBE设备领域的双寡头地位及财务状况。
所以彩蛋来了： $MSFT的Quantum项目似乎是一家未公开披露的超大规模云厂商... 而它秘密地从一家公司采购——根据LinkedIn追踪，这家公司的名称听起来像是和"Prime Ribs"有关。 -> Microsoft Quantum发布了照片 -> 放大左上角并放大 -> Prime Ribs机器验证确认？ 在量子机器的MBE（分子束外延）领域，他们与$VECO形成了双头垄断（可以类比$AXIA在光子学领域的地位，但这是针对量子领域）。 他们今天发布了财报： -> 已经盈利。财报发布后约25倍PE。 -> 资产负债表非常健康 -> 用于周边领域，比如硅光子学（例如Fujitsu的量子点分拆公司） -> IntelliEPI（除$MSFT外）是知名的买家 一些粉丝主动联系我了解这家公司的名字（DD发现功劳不归我）。免责声明：我认为他们的分析很有启发性，并且持有仓位。 -> 全部功劳归于@latent_value7发现了$MSFT的关联 -> 功劳归于@TheSarge_很早就让我注意到了这个名字 提醒一下：尽管我分享这些精彩发现，我不建议任何人根据我的帖子建仓。 我只是很惊讶，有人在X平台上发现了一家超大规模云厂商从前沿量子项目的小型供应商那里秘密采购。
英文原文
So the easter egg: $MSFT Quantum appears to be an undisclosed hyperscaler... That is secretly buying from a company that sounds with Prime Ribs according to LinkedIn tracking. -> Microsoft Quantum posted photos -> Zoom in to top left and magnified -> Prime Ribs machine checks out? It's a duopoly in the MBE space with $VECO for quantum machines (think $AXIA for photonics but for Quantum). They reported earnings today: -> It's profitable. ~25 P/E ratio after ER release. -> Very healthy balance sheet -> Used for adjacents, like silicon photonics (eg. Fujitsu's quantum dot spinoff) -> IntelliEPI (aside from $MSFT) well known buyer Some followers reached out about this name (not taking any credit for DD or finding it). Disclosure: I found their ideas interesting and have positions. -> Full Credit to @latent_value7 finding $MSFT links -> Credit to @TheSarge_ for bringing the name to my attention early on A reminder: Even though I share these cool ideas, I don't recommend anyone take positions based on my posts. I'm just impressed that people on X found that a hyperscaler buying from a tiny company for their frontier quantum program.
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分析$POET低风险高现金特征及作为$MRVL独家供应商的投资逻辑
这事很微妙。$POET 下行风险低，因为大家都已经被稀释过了。 所以他们的现金储备约$4亿对比市值，缓冲了下行风险。 所以企业价值(EV)约$4-5亿，这对作为$MRVL独家供应商来说很划得来，即使几年后被技术替代。我还没看到他们有更多主要客户的多元化，这令人担忧。但如果他们真能轻松做成几十亿的公司，其他人可以去冒这个风险。 如果你看我个人选的股票，像$AEHR（也许还有$GOOGl、$AMD、$INTC，以及另一个光收发器客户）。 像$SIVE 一样，同样的$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar -> Alchip，以及其他市值更低的公司。
英文原文
It's nuanced. $POET has low downside risk because everyone already got diluted. So their cash balance sheet is extremely high ~$400m vs. MC, which cushions downside risk. So EV is like $400-500m which is great for the sole source $MRVL Celestial supplier, even if they get engineered out in a few years. I haven't seen them have more lead customer diversification yet, which is concerning. But if they do easily few billion company, and other ppl can take that risk. If you look at the names I personally pick like $AEHR ( maybe $GOOGl, $AMD, $INTC, and another optical transceiver customer). With stuff like $SIVE, it's the same $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar -> Alchip, and others at a lower MC.
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通过线索发现一个未披露的超大客户供应商，感慨“找彩蛋”也能用于股票。
原来……股票里找彩蛋也行？ 真不敢相信，我的某个关注者居然通过下面这些步骤，找到了像 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 这样的 T1 超大规模客户的未披露供应商： -> 看某位高管在 LinkedIn 上发的帖子。 -> 把他们照片左上角放大 5 倍 -> 找到一台外形足够特别、可以识别的机器 -> 根据机器的配色追溯到一家小公司 -> 最后锁定这家未披露供应商 我真的佩服。
英文原文
Turns out... Easter egg hunting works in stocks as well? Can't believe one of my followers found the undisclosed supplier of a T1 hyperscaler like $NVDA or $GOOGL by: -> Looking at an executive's from LinkedIn posts. -> Magnified the edges of one of their posted photo by 5x -> Found one of the machines that looked distinct enough to identify -> Traced the color scheme of a machine back to a small company -> Identified the undisclosed supplier. I'm genuinely impressed.
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用订单和 backlog 说明变压器 / 开关设备是数据中心的关键瓶颈。
当前瓶颈：变压器 / 开关设备。 交易思路：在 184 加元买入 Hammond（约 22 亿加元 / 15 亿美元）的多头。 它们主导的市场包括： - 变压器（干式，多年瓶颈，约占市场 23%） - 开关设备（2-3 年瓶颈） - 还生产液体型产品（5 年瓶颈，规模更大） 我个人预计其价格会像 NAND 一样上调，因为 $AMZN、$MSFT 等公司都在争夺配额。 你可能见过这类说法： “美国一半的数据中心建设被推迟或取消，增长受限于电力基础设施短缺”…… 再往下看： “为了解决短缺……加拿大、墨西哥……成了 AI 数据中心高压变压器的最大供应国”…… 猜猜谁在加拿大的 Guelph、墨西哥的 Monterrey 3 和 4，以及美国都有布局？ Hammond。 再看文章引用的，为什么超大规模客户的数据库扩张正在崩掉： “这些挫折背后的主要原因，是关键电气组件的可获得性——比如变压器、开关设备。” 机构大概都在看 Powell、Eaton 之类的公司……但他们可能不知道？ 这些公司其实会买 Hammond 的变压器再装进自己的开关设备里（“大量卖给数据中心、开关设备制造商”）。 它们在变压器市场的份额其实很大（例如干式约 23%）。 最有说服力的信号： -> 2025 年 backlog 同比增长 122%。我们可以据此推测超过 10 亿加元。 例如，公司 2025 年销售额为 8.98 亿加元，产能已经顶到上限。管理层说，2025 年第三季度末的订单价值相当于整个第三季度 backlog 的 53%。 考虑到 2025 年第四季度营收是 2.54 亿，而 backlog “翻了一倍多”，我们可以推算总 backlog 超过 10 亿加元。 另外： “去年毛利率压缩是因为墨西哥工厂建设，但预计毛利率都会上升，工厂扩建会在 2026 年第二季度转化为加速收入增长”，也就是现在。 下行风险在于原材料成本（铜、电工钢）如果再次上升，不过既然处在这种瓶颈里，他们是可以提价的。 我个人的 2026 年前瞻市盈率估计大概是 18-21 倍，2027 年不到 15 倍，因为有产能爬坡。 但如果他们能一边提价，一边接到超大规模客户的紧急订单，前瞻市盈率甚至有可能到个位数。不过那可能会和新并购混在一起。 总之它还是很便宜。 简单总结一下： $AMZN、$MSFT、$META、$GOOGL、$ORCL 的数据中心正在被变压器 / 开关设备短缺卡住。 市场似乎错过了这家市场份额很大的小公司，尽管它有 backlog 可见度，而且随着产能扩张上线，营收还在增长。 我个人觉得很有吸引力，所以建了多头仓位。 当然，这只是我的个人想法，做决定前请自己 DYOR。
英文原文
The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further: “To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers” Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US? Hammond Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”. Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers") Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry). The most compelling signal: -> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD. Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: “Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now. Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. Just a TLDR: $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear. Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.
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认为 AEHR 未来量产爬坡是核心，当前财务无法体现。
$AEHR 的财报应该会很有意思。 我以前没见过这么多超大规模客户 / 光收发器（可能是 $AMD、$GOOGL、$INTC 等）公司去给一家 13 亿美元市值的小公司做资格认证。 我猜也许下一次财报里，我们会看到更多量产爬坡的指引？他们上周才刚开始和那家新的光收发器公司做资格认证。 如果这次财报就发生那当然更好。市场是前瞻的，所以很多重估其实现在就会开始。
英文原文
$AEHR earnings should be fun. I haven't seen so many hyperscalers/optical transceiver (prob $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and others) companies qualifying a small $1.3B company before. My guess is maybe next earnings, we'll see more volume ramp projections? They just begun qualification with that new optical transceiver company last week. Would be nice if it happened this ER though. Markets are forward looking, so a lot of the repricing would happen around now imo.
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认为太多超大客户在资格认证 AEHR，量产一切就会被重估。
我从没见过一家公司被这么多超大规模客户 / AI 公司同时做资格认证……感觉像是 $AMD、$GOOGL、$INTC 之类的，还有更多光学公司，排队名单实在太夸张了。 只要他们一切换到量产订单，这一季或者下一季的 $AEHR 财报大概率都会像火箭一样冲出去。 至于时点，我帮不了你。长期看我觉得它会高很多，短期我不确定。
英文原文
I haven't seen a company get so many hyperscalers/AI companies qualifying it before... think it's $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and more optical companies, so line up is kinda insane. This or next $AEHR earnings will likely hit like a truck once they all switch to volume orders. As for timing, can't help you there. Long term I think it will go much higher, short term not sure.
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回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
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认为 AEHR 在小市值下被低估，正被多家超大客户做资格认证。
$AEHR 在大约 11 亿美元市值下看起来极有吸引力。 Aehr 开始让我想起早期的 $TER，又有点像财报前的 $AAOI。 如果把时间线和猜测客户列出来： 2 月 11 日：Sonoma 为超大客户的 AI ASIC 处理器拿到生产胜利。（大概率是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$META） - 可能是谷歌？Aehr 收购了 Incal，而 Incal 曾被猜测会被谷歌用于 TPU。 2 月 26 日：来自 AI 主力客户的 1400 万美元。（大概率是 $AMD、$NVDA） - 这里更像是 $AMD，用于 Instinct MI300/MI400。 3 月 3 日：一台 FOX-XP 系统对应的主硅光客户。（大概率是 $INTC siph） - 很可能 $INTC 就是他们的主客户。 3 月 31 日：来自一家新的大型硅光客户的首单。（大概率是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$CSCO） - 新客户（排除了 Intel），大概是这些正转向 800G/1.6T 硅光收发器的公司之一。 （这些都属于非常保密的 BOM 级推测） 不管怎样，这条时间线对 $AEHR 来说就是在不断加码。 也许就是下一次财报。也可能再过两季。 但感觉量产订单只是时间问题。
英文原文
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
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把 AXT 比作霍尔木兹海峡，强调其在 InP 供应链中的关键卡口地位。
“AXTI 海峡”来了： 全球 20% 的原油总供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。 它是全球能源贸易中最关键的单一咽喉点。 现在……如果把这个概念放大两倍，把 $LITE 和 $GOOGL 当成接受方，而不是韩国 / 日本呢？ 欢迎来到 $AXTI。 他们控制着 40% 的 InP 供应链。 无论是原材料还是加工环节。两个彼此独立的瓶颈（可以把它想成伊朗先产油，再通过海峡运输出去）。 所以，如果你把霍尔木兹石油瓶颈的咽喉点再乘 2 倍（但放到 AI 行业的光子学层面，而不是国家经济层面）： 你就会突然意识到 AXT 在光子学市场里的咽喉地位（以及中国的咽喉地位）。 当前估值来自它的战略控制力。而真正的价值在于，AXT 通过提价去行使这种控制力： 因为光子学支撑的 AI 建设，在规模化上没有别的选择。
英文原文
Introducing the Strait of $AXTI: 20% of the world's total global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade. Now... Double That with $LITE and $GOOGL instead of South Korea/Japan as recipients? Welcome to $AXTI. They control 40% of the InP supply chain. Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks (think of Iran producing oil, then shipping it through the Strait). So, if you 2x the chokepoint with the Hormuz oil bottleneck (but on AI industry level for photonics, instead of Country economies): You suddenly realize AXT's chokepoint (and China) on the photonics market. The current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes: Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.
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整理Mirae Asset的CPO价值链全图，涵盖激光源到EDA各环节上市公司
来自Mirae Asset的CPO价值链概览： 激光源： Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) PIC代工： TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM > EIC、驱动IC： Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS、光引擎： Innolight / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) TFC / 苏州天孚光通信 (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU（光纤阵列单元）： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU、对准工具： ficonTEC（私企） All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST（私企） FAU、引擎组装： Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT、先进封装： ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > 连接器、套管： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec（私企） T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex（私企） Browave (TWO: 3163) 光纤： Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / 日东纺绩 (TYO: 3110) 电/光测试： Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane（私企） 交换、系统： NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL > EDA： Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > 对这些名单中的一些名称感到困惑，他们可能混淆了一些公司，比如把Innolight和激光源公司（如$MTSI、Sumitomo、$SIVE、Luxnet）与实际终端模块混在一起了（除非有什么非公开材料或者我遗漏了）。 但对于对这个领域感兴趣的人来说，这是一个很好的高层概览。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: CPO领域Mirae分析师笔记： 规模化方向： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、中际旭创 DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 规模提升方向： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互连：研发阶段？ CPO测试："新玩家进入增加" 微透镜/光学系统："新玩家进入增加" TLDR：规模提升的CPO即将到来。我认为分析师笔记遗漏了一堆上游公司名称，并把ELS和光源混为一谈了。 但对于了解他们认为谁是领先玩家来说，这是个很好的高层概览。
英文原文
CPO Value Chain Summary from Mirae Asset: Laser Source: Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) PIC Foundry: TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM> EIC, Driver IC: Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS, Optical Engine Innolight / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) TFC / Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU (Fiber Array Unit): Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU, Align Tools: ficonTEC (Private) All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST (Private) FAU, Engine Assembly: Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT, Advanced Packaging: ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > Connector, Ferrule: Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec (Private) T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex (Private) Browave (TWO: 3163) Fiber: Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / Nitto Boseki (TYO: 3110) E/O Testing: Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane (Private) Switch, System: NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL> EDA: Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > Confused by some of names of the list, they might have conflated a few names like Innolight with laser source like $MTSI, Sumitomo, $SIVE, Luxnet, with the actual end module (unless there's something that's not public material or I missed)? But just for people interested in the landscape, this is a good high-level overview.
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AI数据中心供应链严重依赖亚洲，中东冲突加剧流动性风险，稀土应成美国国安优先事项
Hi Ron，这个话题分为两个不同的部分： 1. 超大规模云服务商（$ORCL、$META、$AMZN）：他们的支出超过了盈利水平（$GOOGL 是罕见的例外，而 $AAPL 相对而言支出并不多）。 因此市场担心这并没有转化为实质性的收入。 尤其是像 Oracle 这样负债累累的公司，降息是使其稍微可持续的重要因素（如果你看债务利息，数目非常庞大），而降息既能推动产能扩张，也能带来实质性的成本节省。 由于伊朗战争和原油价格上涨，原定2026年的降息预期已经落空。 雪上加霜的是，人们担心他们的 AI 数据中心建设供应链会中断。 如果你看看他们的 AI 数据中心部件产地： - 来自台湾 - 来自韩国 - 来自日本 这是一个全球化的供应链。 虽然美国看起来没问题，因为它在石油、液化天然气、氦气和其他半导体供应链所需的资源方面是绝缘的。 但我们的亚洲合作伙伴并不处于长期冲突中。 所以当你看到亚洲那些规模较小、专业化的公司时，它们正在苦苦挣扎。 这种影响会层层放大，一直传导到终端的亚马逊网络服务 AI 数据中心（成本上升、供应短缺）。 2. AI 整体而言：投资者对此非常乐观。 问题在于实现路径，而美国在表面上看起来被中国卡住了。 - 美国投入过多，而中国和其他国家正在蒸馏我们的最新模型（需要 KYC 端点管控），坐享其成。 - 随着 AI 项目的规模扩大，它正变得越来越依赖中国公司。 我认为这是因为美国缺乏稀土，这应该成为我们的头号国家安全优先事项。 这是制造新一代 AI 硬件、机器人供应链和太空探索所需的。 这些资源都由中国和俄罗斯控制。即使是领先的"西方"公司，我已发现它们仍然主要依赖中国/俄罗斯。 这是我们确保前沿项目安全最大的漏洞之一。 如果你看光子学（AI 硬件如何通过光加速），我们没有西方的供应链来满足需求。主要材料来源是中国的 $AXTI 和中国的 Vital 两家公司，然后流转到日本或其他公司，最后进入美国。 如果你看我们的人形机器人项目（我们如何将 AI 带入现实世界），$TSLA Optimus 的所有躯体都是在中国制造的。 美国供应链缺乏制造这些组件所需的稀土，因为成本太高。 3. 中东地区的冲突 近期下跌的一个重要原因是流动性问题。我们在阿联酋、中东的合作伙伴主要在为私募市场提供资金（想想 OpenAI），他们大量的支出流向 AI 市场。 他们也是从 Meta 到微软等科技七巨头最大的投资者之一。 如果他们的油田继续受到干扰，他们可能不得不从美国市场撤出流动性。 这既影响这些公司在 AI 上的支出能力，也会导致美国市场的抛售下跌。 如果有takeaway（要点）的话：请把稀土列为美国头号国家安全优先事项。特朗普总统已经投资了 $USAR、$MP 和几个单独的公司。 但还有许多更多至关重要的、尚未盈利的公司，它们对于制造 AI、自动驾驶汽车和机器人都是必需的。我们需要打破对中国/俄罗斯的依赖。
英文原文
Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.
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角川书店(Kadokawa)年内涨幅15.93%，用户戏称靠动漫品味跑赢科技大盘。
很多人问我最喜欢的三部动漫： 1）《路人女主的养成方法》（《路人女主的养成方法》）- 角川书店（TYO: 9468） 2）《欢迎来到实力至上主义教室》- 角川书店（TYO: 9468） 3）《Re:从零开始的异世界生活》- 角川书店（TYO: 9468） 角川书店年内至今涨幅：15.93% 经验教训： 如果你对动漫有好的品味，就能跑赢$GOOGL和$META以及大盘指数吗？
英文原文
Lot of people were asking about my top 3 anime: 1) Eminence in Shadow - Kadokawa (TYO: 9468) 2. Classroom of the Elite - Kadokawa (TYO: 9468) 3. Re:Zero - Kadokawa (TYO: 9468) Kadokawa YTD: 15.93% Lesson learned: You can outperform $GOOGL and $META + indexes if have good taste in anime?
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认为美股科技股卖压过头，SpaceX IPO 会制造流动性真空，短期别碰期权。
$MSFT、$GOOGL 和 $META 这轮美国科技股抛售，看起来已经过度了？ Mag7 大致跌幅： Microsoft 年初至今跌 -21.9% Google 年初至今跌 -7.69% $AMZN 年初至今跌 -7.36% Meta 年初至今跌 -8.54% 更糟的是，如果 SpaceX 以 1.7 万亿美元估值在快速纳入指数后 IPO。 大型 IPO 通常会制造巨大的市场流动性真空（对 SpaceX 来说当然是好事）。 不过，我不认为市场真的相信伊朗战争会很快结束。 -> 大盘股出现巨大流动性抽水， -> SpaceX IPO 还会带来更多抽水， -> 尽管基本面在改善 = 短期别碰期权。 长期来看，我预计 Mag7 会恢复。
英文原文
The US tech selloff from $MSFT, $GOOGL and $META looks really overdone now? Mag7 roughly down: Microsoft down -21.9% YTD Google down -7.69% YTD $AMZN down -7.36 YTD Meta down -8.54% YTD What makes things worse is SpaceX IPOing at $1.7T if they get fast-index inclusion. Mega-IPOs typically serve as a massive market liquidity vacuum (good for SpaceX though) However, I don’t think markets are truly convinced War in Iran is ending anytime soon. -> Massive liquidity drain from large caps, -> more upcoming soon with SpaceX IPO -> despite improving fundamentals = don’t touch short term options. Long term I expect Mag7 to recover.
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详细映射 P4O 可能成为 LITE 上游玻璃供应商，但强调未必能显著转化为收入。
我刚看了评论…… $P4O 看起来像是一个潜在的 $LITE 上游供应商，市值只有 3400 万美元。 它大致的映射可能是： -> Plan Optik $P4O（玻璃晶圆） -> Teledyne $TDY 或 Silek（存储晶圆厂） -> $LITE（OCS 交换机） -> $GOOGL（TPU） 不过，$LITE 这个层面上的玻璃晶圆供应，可能也会和 Corning（$GLW）双源采购。 P4O 是 Infineon、Samsung 等公司的已知供应商，所以也不是随便的一家公司。 €335 万现金 vs. 3552 万美元市值，资产负债表还挺健康。 但这不代表它一定会带来显著收入提升，除非他们开始提价（因为玻璃晶圆大概只占 $LITE OCS BOM 的很小一部分）。 我个人在读完这些之后是持有了一些股份。 因为 $LITE OCS 潜在供应链瓶颈在战略上很有价值，也许财务上没那么明显。 但它关于 Plan Optik 的玻璃流和 MDF finishing 在 OCS 封装里几乎不可替代这一点，我觉得是成立的。 当然，超大规模云供应链保护得很严，所以也不可能 100% 确定。 这些功劳都属于跟帖的粉丝们。 但 TLDR： 供应链映射 -> $P4O -> 晶圆厂 -> $LITE -> $GOOGL，按他们的分析是很可能的。 至于它是不是 $LITE OCS 供应链里的瓶颈……我不确定它到底能不能显著转化成财务价值。 再说一遍，我完全不是在推荐它。 只是觉得这种 $LITE OCS 供应链映射很有意思，把粉丝辛辛苦苦做的研究丢到空白里也太浪费了。
英文原文
So just checked out the comments... $P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC. How it likely maps: -> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers) -> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries) -> $LITE (OCS Switches) -> $GOOGL (TPUs) However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( $GLW ) on the glass wafer level. P4O is a known supplier to Infineon, Samsung, and others, so not exactly a random company. €3.35 million vs. 35.52M MC is very healthy balance sheet. That being said: -> That doesn't exactly mean this translates to material revenue boosts unless they start price hike (given glass wafers are likely a very small part of $LITE OCS BOM). I do personally own shares, after reading this. Since $LITE OCS potential supply chain chokepoints is strategically valuable. Maybe not so much so as financially valuable. But their core thesis that Plan Optik's Glass Flow and MDF finishing are effectively irreplaceable for OCS packaging checks out. Of course, hyperscaler supply chains are heavily guarded, so no way to know 100%. All credit goes to follower comments. But TLDR: Supply Chain Mapping -> $P4O -> Foundries -> $LITE -> $GOOGL is very likely from their analysis. As for being a chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain... dunno if it translates materially. Again, not recommending this at all. Just thought the $LITE OCS supply chain mapping like this very interesting, and that it would be a waste of the follower kinda posted all this work into the void.
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个人偏空 ARM 和 QLCM，更偏好联发科及其与谷歌的高增长 ASIC 业务。
我个人其实对 $ARM 和 $QLCM 都偏空。 问我 $ARM 可能不是最合适，因为我之前确实帮过不少 RISC-V 的东西，所以我有点偏见。 至于 Qualcomm……联发科也许更值得做多，尤其是它和 $GOOGL 合作的高增长 ASIC 业务。
英文原文
I'm actually personally pretty bearish on both $ARM and $QLCM. Probably not the best person to ask on $ARM since I did help out RISC-V quite a bit so I'm a little biased. As for Qualcomm... Mediatek is probably better long, especially with their high growth ASIC arm working with $GOOGL.
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Sivers以2.5亿美元估值复制LITE/COHR模式，成为CPO/ELS时代的光源核心供应商，被严重低估。
估值约2.5亿美元的$SIVE|$SIVEF看起来是光通信半导体市场中结构性错误定价最严重的标的之一。 $LITE和$COHR目前拥有450亿美元以上的估值，主要因为它们控制了外部腔体激光器(EML)和垂直腔面发射激光器(VCSEL)的出货——这些器件流向-> InnoLight和Eoptolink，用于当前可插拔光收发器(supercycle)。 我会一直强调这个观点，直到市场理解： Sivers已经为下一个技术范式复制了这一高度盈利的Merchant Supplier（商业代工）模式： -> 共封装光学(CPO)和外部光源(ELS)。 同时还有： -> 激光器，某大型制造商如Jabil正在用于当前的1.6T升级周期。 Sivers预见到架构正在从EML转型，并成为连续波(CW)激光器的纯Play供应商。 当前周期（可插拔光模块）：LITE/COHR供应EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink制造模块 -> $GOOGL、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN购买。 下一个周期（CPO/ELS）：Sivers供应CW DFB激光器 -> $POET、Ayar Labs -> 流向超大规模数据中心商如$AMZN、$META、$MSFT等。 但与建设大型晶圆厂、承担良率/产能爬坡风险不同： 他们转型为无晶圆厂模式，通过Win Semi外包生产大批量CW激光器，有效降低了规模扩张风险。 那为什么在光电子supercycle期间估值只有2.5亿美元？ 我的观点： 1. 没人知道这家公司。 2. 许多基金的投资限制阻止它们购买瑞典的小盘股。 然而，当你开始关注超大规模数据中心光供应链中那些不知名的上游标的时： 光源领域最顶层的公司是$SIVE。 一家2.5亿美元的小公司，置身于$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、住友电工以及百亿至数百亿美元市值的现有巨头之间。 再说一遍…… 一家2.5亿美元的公司： 为Jabil的1.6T LRO光收发器模块提供核心光源。 Jabil是巨头。 同时还为Ayar、$POET、Enablence/$ONET以及许多其他名字（尚未公开披露）提供多元化供应。 $SIVE已成功打入超大规模数据中心商的供应链，成为未来光电子架构的核心光源供应商。 相对于未来市场空间扩张和产能爬坡来看，估值被严重低估了。
英文原文
< $SIVE | $SIVEF > at a ~$250M valuation looks like one of the most severe structural mispricing in the optical semi market. $LITE and $COHR, have $45B+ valuations today: Largely because of their control over EMLs and VCSELs that they ship to -> InnoLight and Eoptolink. For current pluggable transceiver supercycles. I will keep hammering this home until markets understand: Sivers has replicated this exact, highly lucrative merchant-supplier model for the next paradigm: -> CPO and ELS. And also: -> Lasers that a massive manufacturer like Jabil is using for the current 1.6T upgrade cycle. Sivers saw architectures shifting away from EML and became the pure play supplier for CW. Current Cycle (Pluggables): LITE/COHR supply EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink build modules -> $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN buy them. Next Cycle (CPO / ELS): Sivers supplies CW DFB -> $POET, Ayar Labs -> flows to hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, $MSFT and others. However, instead of building up mega fabs with yield/capacity ramp risk: They transitioned to an outsourced, fabless model for high-volume CW Lasers with Win Semi and effectively de-risked scaling. So why does it have a $250M valuation during the photonics supercycle? My opinion: 1. Nobody knows about it yet. 2. Many fund mandates prevents them from buying small caps in Sweden However, when you start looking at obscure upstream names in hyperscaler light supply chain: At the top for the light source sits $SIVE. A small $250M company among $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo and the $10B-$40B+ incumbents. Again... A $250M company: Powers Jabil's 1.6T LRO optical transceivers modules. Jabil is massive. As well as Ayar, $POET, Enablence/ $ONET and many other names now (that are not disclosed) for diversification. $SIVE found their way to scale as the lightsource of hyperscaler supply chains for future photonic architectures. And looks incredibly undervalued, relative to forward TAM expansion and ramp.
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认为 SIVE/SIVEF 本周大涨后仍被低估，是多家光子和云厂供应链中的关键激光源。
$SIVE <> $SIVEF 这周已经涨了 165%。 估值呢？大约 3 亿美元市值。 不过我可能是傻了，或者说 Sivers 其实就是当下光子领域最好的机会之一。 你买到的是 Jabil、Ayar、Poet（$MRVL Celestial）、O-Net 等公司的激光供应商： 而这些最终都会流向 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的 AI 数据中心。 市值才 3 亿美元。 今天的 EML 激光供应商，比如 $LITE 到 $COHR，作为参照都在 450 亿美元以上。 这可能是未来上游光子供应链里最不被市场理解、却又至关重要的瓶颈之一。 而市场现在才刚开始给它定价。
英文原文
$SIVE <> $SIVEF is now up 165% this week. Valuation? ~$300M MC. However; either I’m dumb or Sivers is one of the best opportunities in photonics today. You get the laser supplier for Jabil, Ayar, Poet ( $MRVL Celestial ), O-Net, and others: That end up in $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META AI datacenters. At ~$300M. The EML laser suppliers today from $LITE to $COHR for reference are $45B+ This is one of the most undiscovered yet critical bottlenecks for future upstream photonics supply chains. That markets have only starting to price in today.
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把 SIVE 视作 MRVL Celestial、Ayar、O-Net、Jabil 等链路的激光源，最终服务于大型云厂商。
它们字面上就是 $MRVL Celestial 通过 $POET、Ayar -> AI Chip / GUC、O-Net，乃至现在的 Jabil 所使用的光源。 所以终端客户大概率全是 $MSFT、$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN……也就是说，它们可能会成为整个超大规模云供应链，甚至亚洲供应链的未来潜在光源。 市值只有 2.8 亿美元，wtf？ 按 30 亿到 50 亿美元去看都不夸张。
英文原文
They're literally the light source for $MRVL Celestial through $POET, Ayar -> Ai Chip/GUC, O-Net, and now Jabil. So end users are probably all $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN... The future potential light source for the entire hyperscaler supply chain and even ones in Asia. At $280m MC, wtf? $3-5B MC for $SIVE near term is not far fetched.
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Sivers成为Jabil 1.6T光收发器激光光源供应商，是其在CPO/硅光子供应链中的重大突破。
Sivers <$SIVE/$SIVEF>为Jabil（270亿美元市值）<$JBL>的1.6T长距离光(LRO)收发器提供光源。 作为激光光源供应商。 这无疑是$SIVE（2.8亿美元市值）公司历史上——也是今天$NVDA GTC大会上——最大的新闻…… Jabil从$AMZN、$GOOGL和$META等终端用户那里带来约300亿美元以上的收入。 以及$NVDA、Arista、$AVGO和Cisco等OEM厂商。 尤其是在收购$INTC的硅光子(SiPh)光收发器业务后，他们在该领域已是一级供应商(Tier 1)。 Sivers为Jabil提供连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB laser)光源，应用于硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(CPO)及超大规模云服务商供应链： 对于一家市值仅2.8亿美元的公司来说，这是难以置信的，而且他们是光子学领域我见过的最不知名却最具潜力的公司。 $NVDA GTC的消息只是进一步巩固了这一投资论点。 我认为他们真的有机会成为下一个$LITE。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > powering Jabil ($27B MC) < $JBL > 1.6T LRO transcivers. As the laser light source. Is by far the biggest news from $NVDA GTC for Sivers ($280M MC) today... in history. Jabil brings in about $30B+ revenue from end users like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META. As well as OEMs like $NVDA, Arista, $AVGO, and Cisco. Especially after acquiring $INTC SiPH optical transceiver business, they're Tier 1 in the space. Sivers powering Jabil as the CW DFB laser source for Silicon Photonics and CPO and hyperscaler supply chains: At a $280M MC is incredible, and they're one of the most unknown yet highest potential company I've seen in the photonics sector so far. And the news from $NVDA GTC just cemented this thesis further. I think they genuinely have a shot at becoming the next $LITE.
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博主认为SIVE成为Jabil光源供应商的消息将驱动SIVE股价大幅重新估值。
@mrsgayathridas 关于$IBKR的看法。$SIVE成为$JBL的光源这个新公告可能是迄今为止最大的新闻。我预计这只股票将因这个消息而获得巨大的重新估值。Jabil为$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN、$MSFT提供光收发器。他们是一个巨头的存在。
英文原文
@mrsgayathridas $IBKR. The new announcement $SIVE is the light source for $JBL is probably biggest news to date. And I expect the stock to get re-rated immensely from the news. Jabil powers $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT for optical transceivers. They’re a huge player.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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Sivers涨幅29%达2.82亿市值，作者认为其作为CPO/硅光子学上游激光供应商，是下一个LITE，尚未被市场定价。
Sivers今天又涨了29%，市值达到2.82亿美元。我真心认为$SIVE可能是下一个$LITE。因为他们被定位为下一代超大规模算力供应链接构的光源。当scale up-scale out架构转向共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)时——光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)的开端。那些从$POET和Ayar购买并封装其激光阵列/cw DFB激光(连续波分布反馈激光器)的公司——估值约10亿至40亿美元以上（不包括O-Net或未披露的公司）。在当前可插拔光收发器(Pluggable Transceiver)周期中：激光供应商通常比其购买光源的封装对手方获得更高的估值溢价。所以，我确实认为$SIVE在很大程度上被市场忽视，远未反映在股价中。（该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，仅供理解语境）：$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。他们是未来类似$COHR/$LITE的光源供应商，可能用于：- $AMZN Trainium集群- $MSFT Maia集群以及可能的其他超大规模算力商如$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。目前市值约2亿美元。关联映射（推测性）：$SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial内部供应）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ？亚洲超大规模算力商。持续进行中：$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU）。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（内部CPO）-> ?（$MSFT, $META历史上Wiwynn最大的客户）。由于类似$MRVL Celestial这样的内部供应模式，他们获得了免费搭乘。然而，他们确实在商业模式下与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI多源自ELS竞争，并与Ayar一起获胜。但无论哪种方式他们都能赢。对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行的Win半导体验证，但这可能是一个重要指标。再强调一下，供应链BOM（物料清单）是极其机密的。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们用$SIVE"。但如果你把1+1+1+1+1放在一起，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。大多数人看到"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE，或Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有映射所有多跳关系来看它们最终去向哪里。我确实认为$SIVE是一个非常未被发现的机遇，作为未来硅光子学领域可能的迷你版$LITE，当时市值2亿美元。作为未来CPO/硅光子学规模扩展的上游激光供应商，用于cw DFB激光器和激光阵列的超大规模算力供应链接构。
英文原文
Sivers is up another 29% to a $282M marketcap today. I genuinely think $SIVE could be the next $LITE. As they’re positioned as the light source for the next generation of hyperscaler supply chains. When scale up-scale out architectures transition to CPO & Silicon photonics. For the start of next Photonics Supercycle. The companies that buy and package their laser arrays/cw dfb lasers from $POET to Ayar? Are worth ~$1B-$4B+ (not including o-net or undisclosed). With current pluggable transceiver cycles: Laser suppliers typically command higher valuation premiums than their packaging counterparties that buy the light source. So, I do think $SIVE is largely undiscovered by markets and far from being priced in.
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$SIVE作为2亿美元市值的硅光子学上游激光供应商，是未被发现的机遇，供应超大规模业者CPO供应链。
$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。 他们是未来可能像$COHR和$LITE那样的光源供应商，用于： - $AMZN Trainium集群 - $MSFT Maia集群 以及可能还有其他超大规模业者的$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。 市值约2亿美元。 关系映射（推测性）： $SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial专用）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? 亚洲超大规模业者 正在进行中： $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU） $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（专用CPO）-> ?（$MSFT、$META历史上是Wiwynn最大的客户）。 由于$MRVL Celestial等专用模式的存在，他们可以免费搭便车。 然而，他们在与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI的多源ELS竞争中对抗Ayar并获胜，即使在商业模式下也是如此。 但无论哪种模式他们都能获胜。 对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行中的Win半导体认证，但这可能是一个重要指标。 同样，供应链BOM（物料清单）极度保密。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们使用$SIVE"。 但如果你把1+1+1+1+1加起来，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。 大多数人都知道"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE。或者Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有将所有多跳关系映射到最终目的地。 我真的认为$SIVE是一个极未被发现的机遇，可能成为下一个小型$LITE，用于硅光子学，在2亿美元市值下。 因为他们是未来CPO/硅光子学规模化扩展中超大规模业者供应链的上游激光供应商，cw DFB激光器和激光阵列用于扩展。
英文原文
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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强调独立研究的重要性，指出恐惧驱动短期价格，但经营收入驱动长期价格。
提醒一下：当整个社区都在恐慌发帖讨论内存股名字的时候。从$EWY（SK Hynix、Samsung）、$MU和$SNDK。在伊朗冲突初期。说“Kospi和内存股会因氦气或LNG下跌30-40%”。我是全程保持看多的少数分析师之一。因为我实际上做了研究来支持我关于LNG、原油和氦气几乎没有实质性影响的观点。伊朗冲突仍在进行中，关于潜在油价飙升仍有很多未知因素：但恐惧和煽动性标题驱动短期价格。经营收入驱动长期价格。只要知道从方向上看，内存对AI建设至关重要。美国不会让他们的AI建设因中东冲突而停滞，并在AI——这个历史上最变革性的技术——上失去对中国的优势。
英文原文
Just a reminder: While the entire community was doomposting about memory names. From $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung), $MU and $SNDK. during the initial Iran conflict. Sayin “Kospi and memory names would drop 30-40% because of Helium or LNG.” I was one of the only few analysts that remained bullish the entire time. As I actually did the research to back up my claims about little material disruption of LNG, Crude, and Helium. The Iran conflict is still ongoing, and there’s a lot of unknowns still regarding potential oil spikes: But fear and sensational headlines drive short term prices. Operating income drives long term prices. Just know that directionally, memory is critical to the AI buildout. United Stares wont let their buildout stall, and lose China, in AI - the most transformative technology in history. Over a Middle East conflict.
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年初回顾自己在光子瓶颈、AXTI、EWY、RPI、IQE、Soitec 和 Venezuela 相关判断上的一系列兑现。
只是回顾一下我今年的成绩。 2026 年前三个月，粉丝增长到 10 万+： - 预判了光子学即将出现的 InP 基板 / 原料瓶颈 - 识别出 $AXTI 是主要受益者（涨了 4 倍+） - 中国突然对日本实施即时出口管制，针对 InP 化合物 -> 在我那篇识别中国瓶颈以及住友 / 超大规模云脆弱性的 thesis 后没多久，这篇还拿了几百万浏览…… 我也不确定他们是不是看过我的帖子，如果看过，抱歉？ - 预测了韩国市场波动上升，并把它映射成和 $EWY 有关的 IV 套利交易想法 - 一周后就被韩国央行关于即将到来的波动的表态验证了 - Bloomberg、Reuters、FT 以及其他媒体都引用了我关于 $RPI 的 thesis 帖 - 很多欧洲媒体也在谈为什么我看好 $IQE - 还有一堆法国新闻网站，以及 Citi、Kepler 的分析师，围绕我那篇关于 Soitec（$SOI）的 TLDR thesis 帖发出了略带强势的研究意见 - 识别出委内瑞拉政局变化的主要受益者，比如 Gold Reserve，而且这只股票第二天就涨了 100%+ - 还发了关于委内瑞拉可能持有多少比特币的信息整合，结果被 CNN 等媒体大量报道！ 我其他很多 thesis 帖，比如 $LITE，也在今年随着我对 $GOOGL TPU BOM 的映射，以及两次加倍后兑现了。 但这些都没上面那些酷！ 短短两个月里！我喜欢保持谦虚，但偶尔也想吹一吹。 最棒的是，这次零售投资者因为 X 上的信息发现和免费传播，几乎都提前参与了很多趋势。 很期待未来会发生什么，也很高兴 X 给了我机会分享想法。
英文原文
Just a reflection on my accomplishments this year. Growing to 100K+ followers in the first three months of 2026: - Forecasted the upcoming InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck for photonics - Identified $AXTI as the main beneficiary (up 4x+) - China's suddenly enforced immediate export controls on Japan, targeting InP compounds -> shortly after my thesis identifying the China bottleneck and Sumitomo/hyperscaler vulnerabilities got a few million views... Not sure if they read my post, sorry if they did? - Predicted volatility increase of the South Korean Market and also mapped that into an IV arbitrage trade idea with $EWY - Got it spot on a week later with the Bank of Korea citing upcoming volatility - Had Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and other news outlets citing my thesis post about $RPI - Bunch of European news sites talking about why I like $IQE - Had a bunch of French news sites and analysts from Citi, Kepler, putting out slightly aggressive notes about my Soitec ( $SOI ) TLDR thesis post. - Identified the main beneficiaries of Venezuela regime change like Gold Reserve, with the stock going up 100%+ the day after. - Published information synthesis on how much Bitcoin Venezuela might have had, and it blew up with a ton of media coverage like CNN and others! Lot of my other thesis posts like $LITE ended up playing out this year after mapping out $GOOGL TPU BOM and doubling. But it's not as cool as the ones above! In just two months! I like to stay humble, but I do want to brag from time to time. And best of all, retail investors were all early to a lot of these trends this time because of information discovery + free distribution over X. Excited to see what's to come in the future and I'm happy X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts.
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博主分享光子学供应链投资组合，按风险等级分层推荐多只股票。
我是最早一批覆盖光子学供应链股票的人。 大多数自发布以来涨幅达到100-400%以上。 以下是我的核心论点帖的概要总结： 截至今日“最安全”的多头标的： - $TSEM（高塔半导体） - $SOI（Soitec） - $COHR——随时间推移具有防御性的复利型公司。 Soitec——在硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)架构攀升中拥有基板垄断地位，估值极低（即使近期上涨40%+，可能仍只有1.4倍市净率）。 高塔半导体——2028年市盈率处于十几倍区间，70%以上的产能已被预订，是$NVDA架构合作伙伴，基本上是光子学领域的纯Play版$TSM。 Coherent——在光子学领域基本上覆盖从材料/基板到激光器再到光收发器的全产业链，同时也是许多其他垂直领域的基础供应商。 最高贝塔/极高增长多头标的： $AXTI——与Sumitomo形成磷化铟(InP)双头垄断（后者正面临出口管制），与Vital在上游原料端形成双头垄断。 基本上，AXT处于整个光子学食物链的顶端。出口管制风险确实存在，但我的论点是：如果AXT倒下，那么AI驱动的光子学建设也会崩塌。所以还不如做多AXT。 $AAOI——到2027年收入增长10倍。激光器->设计->组装，美国制造。主要不确定性在于执行能力、扩大从$COHR收购的激光器产能等。 超大规模数据中心运营商的需求都存在。他们能交付吗？我愿意承担这个风险。 $IQE——基本上完全依赖重组和清理债务（市值约2亿美元）。作为$LITE的外延晶圆(epiwafer)知名供应商，其主要竞争对手Landmark估值超过35亿美元。 其现有产能（反应器）潜力存在，但基本上需要成功转型光子学并切断传统业务的拖累，才能实现10倍的重新定价。 风险最高，但也可能有相应的回报。 做多$GOOGL TPU生态系统相关： $LITE——由于光学电路交换机(OCS)垄断地位，其光学相关的物料清单(BOM)占比非常高。 如果你认为谷歌TPU是一个可能最终像$NVDA那样的万亿美元项目，那就做多$LITE。 谷歌计划2026年资本支出1750-1800亿美元，其AI基础设施CTO表示计划逐年增加，可能在未来8年投入1万亿美元。 如果这个计划成立，$LITE相对于未来潜力来说估值极低。当然，他们也向其他超大规模数据中心运营商供应激光器，但我会说它与谷歌增长的关联度更高。 _ 还有许多其他我覆盖过的标的： $POET——我本人不做多，但其4亿美元资产负债表提供了良好的缓冲。我发现从$MRVL攀升中发现的Celestial项目太遥远——例如2028年预计收入5亿美元、2029年10亿美元——对于2026年来说不具实质意义。 这很大程度上取决于他们的中介器(interposers)是否能获得其他超大规模数据中心运营商的认证，而不是通过Marvell走后门——这是主要的看涨逻辑。 $HIMX——我确实发现这个论点略有说服力，作为可能的$TSM共封装光学(CPO)供应商。 但我个人更偏好$SOI，会将更多集中度投入其中（因为Soitec作为已知供应商已基本覆盖整个硅光子学领域，而且刚从下行周期中走出）。 还有很多其他的如$NOK、$SHMN也很有趣，但我个人已将集中度投入到我认为最有说服力的标的。 像$LITE这样的“拥挤标的”并不意味着没有剩余上涨空间。只是在有新消息之前，估值已经更多地被反映进去了。 存在许多“关键供应商”，但供应链中的重要性...与将其转化为极高营收增长（例如$AAOI -> 45亿美元营收）之间存在差异。 但对于光子学敞口的简要总结，我的投资组合大致如下： 高集中度（更安全）： $TSEM晶圆代工、$SOI基板、$COHR全产业链 做多+卖看跌期权组合（高波动性）： $AXTI基板/原料、$IQE外延晶圆、$AAOI光收发器供应链 然后做多谷歌相关$LITE
英文原文
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
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指出 AXTI 站在光子供应链最上游
InP 衬底，以及制造它们所需的原材料。 基本上，如果你一路追到整个光子供应链的最上游，也就是 $GOOGL 的 TPU 或 $LITE 所用到的那一层，那里站着的就是 $AXTI，像宝可梦冠军一样。
英文原文
@DhruTech InP substrates and raw materials needed to build them. Basically if you go to the very very top of the entire photonics supply chains that $GOOGL TPUs or $LITE uses. There sits $AXTI as the Pokémon champion
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用法语解释为什么偏好 Soitec 及光子/内存主题
我其实更喜欢 $SOI，主要因为它在光子领域里的关键作用。 基于硅光子的 AI 新架构，最终都会用到 Soitec 的衬底材料，这也是它最近被如此关注的原因。 我更偏主题化地投资那些已经被许多超大规模云厂商（比如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 和其他公司）大举下注的领域，而我看好的正是光子和内存这两个方向。 我也粗略看过 Viridien，但我觉得地学数据、地球物理和探测并不是我的强项，所以我不觉得自己有资格给出很好的方向性判断。 不过还是感谢你花时间把法语翻成英语来提问。
英文原文
C'est vraiment $SOI que je préfère, principalement en raison de son rôle majeur dans la photonique. Les nouvelles architectures d'intelligence artificielle basées sur la photonique sur silicium finissent toutes par utiliser les matériaux de substrat de Soitec, d'où le vif intérêt qu'elle suscite récemment. J'investis de manière plutôt thématique dans des secteurs où de nombreux « hyperscalers » comme $GOOGL, $NVDA et d'autres ont injecté massivement de l'argent, et ces deux secteurs sont la photonique et la mémoire. J'ai jeté un petit coup d'œil à Viridien, mais je ne pense pas que les données terrestres, les géosciences et la détection soient mes domaines d'expertise. Je ne me sens donc pas qualifié pour donner un bon avis directionnel. Mais j'apprécie que vous ayez pris le temps de traduire du français vers l'anglais pour poser une question.
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继续看好 AAOI，认为市场忽略其产能与链路价值
$AAOI 没有发生什么新变化，看起来反而是个买入机会。 我同意 Rosenblatt 分析师的说法： “这家公司不到 80 亿美元的市值，和它 2027 年可能达到 40 亿美元的收入相比，实在太低了。” 分析师可以对执行能力保持谨慎，而产能扩张从一开始就是核心问题。 我不觉得这里有什么新东西，这类争论只会一直持续到他们真正交付为止。 超大客户需求不是问题。 $GOOGL 和 $AVGO 也都发出了可插拔收发器生命周期延长的信号，但由于 $AAOI 覆盖了从激光到设计再到组装的整条供应链，它拥有很多人忽略的可选性。
英文原文
Nothings changed with $AAOI and it looks like a buying opportunity. I’d side with Rosenblatt analysts here where “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B”. Analysts can be bearish on execution, and scaling capacity was always the focal question. Don’t think anything’s new around here and this will always be debated until they actually deliver. Hyperscaler demand is not a question. $GOOGL and $AVGO also signaled pluggable transceiver life extensions, but since $AAOI covers the supply chain from laser to design to assembly, they can have optionality that most people miss
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伊朗霍尔木兹海峡布雷，推荐两只水下战争纯正标的$KRKNF和$CODA，均有优质基本面。
10分钟前来自Reuters的消息： 消息人士新确认伊朗已在霍尔木兹海峡部署了约十枚水雷。 我发现有两只水下 warfare（海上战争）股票很有意思，可以提供敞口。 $KRKNF 章鱼🦑和$CODA 水母。 $KRKNF：Kraken Robotics，Anduril（安杜里尔）的供应商，是海上战争领域最纯正的标的之一： 他们生产合成孔径声纳(SAS)和SeaPower电池，许多防务主承包商如Anduril都依赖这些。 Anduril最近在罗德岛开设了一家工厂，用于大规模生产UUV（无人水下航行器）（如Dive-LD和Ghost Shark）。 根据零售端BOM估算： - Dive-LD携带价值1M至2M加元的Kraken硬件 - Ghost Shark XL-AUV携带价值8M至10M加元。 如果Anduril实现量产：收入增长是可期的。 我不会基于收入预测来建模Kraken，而更像看Anduril能扩展到多大（类似于用$GOOGL的TPU来建模$LITE）。 但财务状况、资产：3.015亿美元，负债：6570万美元，总债务约2410万美元，看起来相当健康。毛利率59%的基础上实现60%的年度收入增长。 至于在海峡排雷，他们有KATFISH猎雷无人机。以及用于生成海底3D图像的SAS声纳，用于识别埋藏的水雷。 $CODA：Coda Octopus，基本上是伊朗布雷这一情境的纯正敞口。 他们的主要产品是Echoscope实时3D/4D/5D体积声纳，可在浑浊、漆黑的水中绘制静态和移动物体的图像。 这一技术延伸至其他产品如"NANO Gen Series"，即作为UUV感知传感器的Echoscope版本。 还有一个供潜水员使用的增强显示设备（SPECWAR已订购），基本上就是将Echoscope声纳数据反馈给人员。 CODA的资产负债表非常亮眼。最新FY2025报告（截至2025年10月），他们持有2870万美元的纯现金，且没有长期债务。 毛利率也非常高，综合毛利率66.5%，而大多数防务承包商只有10-20%。 2025年收入2660万美元，同比增长30.7%，净利润410万美元，能实现盈利实属难得。 基本上他们的声纳/探测产品组合对于这个具体情境来说是非常纯粹的标的，即使没有这个催化剂，基本面也非常扎实。 无论如何，伊朗在海峡布雷并不是一个重大的TAM（总可寻址市场）增加。 然而，它确实提醒投资者和政府，战争可能转向水下： 从而带来更多板块资金流入以及防务合同机会。 这些是我个人的两只最爱，既然发表了看法，也希望对其他人有帮助。
英文原文
Just in 10M ago from Reuters: New confirmation from sources that Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. There's two very aquatic warfare stocks I found interesting for exposure. $KRKNF the Squid🦑and $CODA the Octopus. $KRKNF: Kraken Robotics, the Andruil supplier, is one of the more pure play stocks for the acquatic warfare sector: They build Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) and SeaPower batteries that many defense primes like Andruil rely on. Anduril recently opened a facility in Rhode Island to mass produce UUVs (eg. Dive-LD and Ghost Shark). According to retail BOM estimates: - Dive-LD carries $1M to $2M CAD in Kraken hardware - Ghost Shark XL-AUV carries $8M to $10M CAD. If that Anduril ramps happens: the revenue ramp is there. I wouldn't try and model Kraken based off revenue projections but more like how much Andruil scales (similar modeling $LITE based on $GOOGL TPU) But financials, assets: $301.5M, Liabilities: $65.7M, Total debt: ~$24.1M so looks pretty healthy. 60% YoY revenue growth off 59% gross margins. As for demining the strait, they have the KATFISH mine-hunting drone. And SAS Sonar for 3D images of the seafloor for identifying buried mines. $CODA: Coda Octopus, basically pure play exposure to Iran placing mines. Their main product is Echoscope real-time 3D/4D/5D volumetric sonar that maps static and moving objects in murky, pitch-black water. This carries forward to other products like "NANO Gen Series", Echoscope version as a perception sensor for UUVs. And then a diver augmented display (that SPECWAR ordered), which is basically the Echoscope sonar feeding people data. CODA has an amazing balance sheet. Recent FY2025 report (ending Oct 2025), they hold $28.7 million in pure cash and have zero long-term debt. Gross margins are extremely high as well, consolidated gross margin of 66.5% while majority of defense contracotrs sit around 10-20%. $26.6M revenue for 2025, 30.7% Y/Y increase, and $4.1M net income, which is rare to be profitable. But basically their product set of sonar / detection looks perfect pure play for this exact scenario and they’re fundamentally very sound, without the catalyst. Regardless, Iran mining the straight isn't exactly a major TAM increase. However, it does alert investors and the government that warfare may transition underwater: Leading to more sector inflows as well as defense contract opportunities. These were my two favorites personally, just publishing my thoughts here in case other's find this helpful.
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
匿名者，你听了我关于 $AXTI 的论点吗？ 警告：整个 AI 行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值 7 亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值 317 亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球 60–70% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的 $NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7 集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN 超大规模计算集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR 使用磷化铟(InP)用于 800G/1.6T 光收发器中的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈激光器(DFB)及其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从 TPU 到 Maia 的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)、GPU 和超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模计算光学（TPU 集群等） - 光收发器（5G、数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（Robotaxi、无人机、军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia 未来的共封装光学(CPO)以及 Intel/Broadcom 硅光子学引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： - AXTI（估计 ~30–35%） - 住友（估计 ~30%） - JX 日本（估计 10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021 年的行业报告指出“住友电工 + AXT 共同拥有‘超过 75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模计算/AI 正在向光子学转变，但整个 AI 行业是脆弱的。 如果 $AXTI 或 $SMTOY 中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的 AI 建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家 7 亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着 AI 行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HBM)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
英文原文
Hope you listened to my $AXTI thesis anon? https://t.co/d5eg0BIhlG
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$AAOI获超大规模客户大额订单，基本面验证优于内部人抛售担忧。
“$AAOI 收到来自主要超大规模客户的首笔 1.6T 数据中心光收发器(Transceivers) 2 亿美元批量订单” “我们预计很快将成为美国最大的 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器产能基地” 这逐渐证实了他们盈利预测中每月 3.78 亿美元的收入预期。 人们曾对内部人抛售感到恐慌，但关键在于执行力和基本面。 尤其是当他们获得来自 $AMZN、$META 或 $GOOGL 等超大规模客户(Hyperscalers)的批量订单时。
英文原文
$AAOI Receives First $200M Volume Order of 1.6T Data Center Transceivers from Major Hyperscale Customer” “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for 800G and 1.6T transceivers in the U.S” This is gradual confirmation of $378m/month revenue from their earnings projections. People were panicking over insider sales, but what matters is execution and fundamentals. Especially when they’re getting volume orders from Hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, or $GOOGL
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认为地缘政治不会导致科技巨头削减AI资本支出，成本分析优于需求预测。
@nengcunren2527 是的，我同意很多因素在于需求端，但我不认为“七巨头”(Mag7) 或 $GOOGL 会因为伊朗局势紧张而削减资本支出(capex)，从而在人工智能(AI)竞赛中输给了中国。 局势过于错综复杂，在战争升级的短短几天内，还无法对需求进行建模。但成本分析(cost analysis)则更具可操作性。
英文原文
@nengcunren2527 Yep agreed a lot of it is on demand side but I don’t think mag7 or $GOOGL is going to cut capex and lose the AI race to China over Iran tensions. It’s way too multifaceted and can’t model in demand yet from just a few days into war escalation. But cost analysis is more do-able.
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SK海力士/三星基本面未受能源危机实质影响，恐慌性抛售提供买入机会。
$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)看起来确实被严重错配了。 韩国指数以及 SK 海力士/三星的波动简直令人难以置信。 话虽如此，关于存储芯片标的有三点看法： 1. 原油成本及作为副产品的液化天然气(LNG)可能只有轻微到中度的实质性影响。 - 价格上涨对 SK 海力士/三星的利润率只是小幅削减，但 DRAM/NAND 的价格上涨足以弥补这一切。 - 鉴于运输路线/SK 海力士的声明，发现氦气/LNG 的供应中断影响很低。 2. 大多数恐惧似乎被夸大了，市场正在定价油价飙升至 200 美元+全球衰退的最坏情况。 3. 清算导致了夸张的影响。 这些股票的经营利润可能依然完好无损。 但短期重新定价是有道理的，因为市场正在规避未来石油溢出的风险。 然而，我相信一旦战争波动性结束，鉴于基本面 > 恐惧，存储芯片标的将是极具吸引力的多头标的。 另外，这也是一个很好的教训：不要在这些波动时期使用杠杆。
英文原文
$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced. The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane. That being said, three things regarding memory names: 1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect. - Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that - Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements. 2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession. 3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects. The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact. But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers. However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear. Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.
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油价/LNG/氦气恐慌被夸大，SK海力士/三星高利润率可吸收成本，逢低买入。
关于韩国综合指数(KOSPI) | $EWY (SK海力士 / 三星) 的情绪， 原油 / 液化天然气(LNG) / 氦气要么： 扰乱供应或压缩利润的说法被夸大了。 对SK海力士、三星的供应链中断和能源成本威胁是耸人听闻的噪音。 原因如下： 1. 原油： 如果油价上涨31%并浮动至120美元/桶的可能情景： 在这种情况下，油价对SK海力士和韩国内存股几乎没有实质性影响。 通过挂钩油价的LNG/JKM价格，韩国股票面临能源成本上升，主要影响那些仅靠5%到10%微薄利润生存的公司。 然而，鉴于内存价格飙升且三星在Q2将NAND价格翻倍，韩国电力公社(KEPCO) 70%的费率上调对三星/SK海力士几乎没有实质性影响。 根据披露的财务数据，SK海力士的年度电费超过1万亿韩元（DIGITIMES报道，约7.5亿美元）。相对于FY2025年97.15万亿韩元的收入，这约占收入的1-2%。 SK海力士在2025年Q4实现了58%的营业利润率。在此背景下，能源成本冲击很小： 如果我们模拟能源成本增加50%： - 对SK海力士季度营业利润(19.17万亿韩元)的影响：~1340亿-~1460亿韩元 (0.76%) - 对三星DS季度营业利润(16.4万亿韩元)的影响：~4070亿韩元 (2.4%) 每次50%的能源成本激增会使SK海力士的利润率减少约0.7%，三星的营业利润率减少2.4%。 分析师预测SK海力士在2026年传统DRAM上的利润率可能达到70%以上。即使能源成本增加100%，也不会对韩国半导体营业利润率构成实质性威胁。 然而，这对营业利润率为5-10%的低利润率公司是实质性的。 输家：传统重工业（钢铁、基础化学品、普通平板玻璃）。 赢家：三星/SK海力士。 主要风险是供应链的二阶效应，如原材料成本增加。这很难建模，但在一个例子中： 一家工业公司迫使原材料（化学品、特种气体）价格上涨30%，这对晶圆厂的影响微乎其微。 材料约占半导体销售成本(COGS)的15-20%，因此从数学上讲，材料成本激增30%只会使SK海力士的营业利润率再减少约2%。 一个打印70%利润率（并提高价格）的寡头可以轻松吸收3-4%的直接（公用事业）和间接（材料）能源逆风。 在大多数情况下，成本可能会通过NAND/DRAM价格上涨转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。 在油价上涨3倍或5倍的极端情况下。 油价上涨数百倍的主要影响是两个因素： - 全球宏观经济冲击，导致全球通胀（影响从$GOOGL到$COST的每一家公司）。 - 韩元(KRW) USD/KRW汇率崩盘。 持续高油价导致的韩元贬值是一个真实的二阶风险，但历史上韩国内存出口商受益于韩元贬值带来的收入端优势。三星/SK海力士的大部分销售以美元计价，而成本以韩元计价。因此，韩元走弱实际上有利于出口商的利润率，部分抵消了能源成本逆风。 但在油价上涨5倍的极端情况下，那个末日世界里唯一的做多标的只有原油本身、像$LMT / $NOC这样的国防承包商、美国国内能源生产商和美元。 这不太可能发生。 财经媒体和算法可能会恐慌，但如果原油从91美元涨到120美元且KEPCO提高能源成本： 数据显示这对三星 / SK海力士几乎没有影响，主要影响的是那些营业利润率微薄的玩家。 2. LNG： 如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将不受影响。 媒体一直在引用霍尔木兹海峡+流向中国、印度、韩国和日本的LNG流量。但如果我们查看韩国的贸易数据，这只是其总进口的一小部分。 大部分进口通过非霍尔木兹海峡路线到达，例如澳大利亚 (24.6%)、美国 (12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚 (~20%) 和俄罗斯/萨哈林 (~4.6%)。其余部分由来自尼日利亚、秘鲁、文莱、巴布亚新几内亚等次要来源填补。 2024年82%的进口是挂钩油价的长期合同，正如我们上面建模的那样，能源成本增加会使运营支出(opex)每增加50%受损1-2%，但鉴于DRAM/NAND价格上涨和营业利润率达到70%以上，这只会造成很小的缺口。 即使如此，成本也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商。 韩国从2022年吸取了教训并多元化了来源，LNG供应中断的影响很小。主要担忧是油价影响LNG价格上涨。 3. 氦气： SK海力士声明：“已确保多样化的供应链和充足的氦气库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气]影响。” 现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经多元化了供应链以应对外部事件。 氦气对半导体供应链至关重要，但媒体叙事是耸人听闻的。尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明称公司[SK海力士]不可能受到影响时。 _ 但对于三星/SK海力士等韩国股票，围绕石油/LNG/氦气的恐惧看起来与现实脱节： 因氦气和KEPCO费率上调而抛售SK海力士的算法是在进行错误的计算。这从根本上说是一个非供应链问题。 主要威胁是石油和能源成本对全球宏观经济冲击的影响，影响从消费品到通胀的一切。 3月3日“黑色星期二”暴跌使KOSPI下跌7.2%，SK海力士单日下跌11.5%，正是以这些能源安全恐惧为主要催化剂。当然，杠杆强制平仓火上浇油。 然而，基本面与价格走势之间的脱节就是交易机会。如果利润率真的受到威胁，抛售就是合理的。 但，抛售在一天内摧毁的价值比几十年能源成本上涨可能造成的还要多。 数学不支持恐惧的事实正是为什么韩国是买入的理由，因为市场正在因情绪而非结构性扩张的盈利能力（尽管石油/能源成本增加）而抛售。
英文原文
The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either: Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown. The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise. Here's why: 1. Crude Oil: The a likely scenario if oil prices increase 31% and oil floats to $120/bbl: In this case, the effect on oil has almost no material impact on SK Hynix and South Korean memory equities. There are increased energy costs via oil-pegged LNG/JKM prices on Korean equities, mainly for companies surviving on razor-thin 5% to 10% margins. However, a KEPCO 70% rate hike has little material affect on Samsung/SK Hynix, given memory prices have soared with Samsung doubling NAND prices Q2. From disclosed financial from, their SK Hynix's annual electricity bill exceeds ₩1 trillion per DIGITIMES (~$750M). Which against FY2025 revenue of ₩97.15 trillion represents roughly 1–2% of revenue. SK Hynix posted a 58% operating margin in Q4 2025. Against this backdrop, the energy cost shock is small: If we model a 50% increase in energy costs: - Hit to SK Hynix quarterly OP (₩19.17T): ~₩134 billion-~₩146 billion (0.76%) - Hit to Samsung DS quarterly OP (₩16.4T): ~₩407 billion (2.4%) Every 50% energy cost spike would shave roughly .7% off SK Hynix margins and 2.4% off Samsung operating margins. Analysts project SK Hynix margins could reach 70%+ on conventional DRAM in 2026. Energy costs do not meaningfully threaten Korean semiconductor operating margins, even if they were to increase by 100%. However, this is material to companies with low operating margins of 5-10% The Losers: Traditional heavy manufacturing (steel, basic chemicals, standard flat glass). The Winners: Samsung/SK Hynix. The main risk is second-order effects on supply chains such as increased material costs. This is very hard to model, but in an example where: an industrial company forces 30% price hikes on raw materials (chemicals, specialty gases), it barely dents the fabs. Materials are roughly 15-20% of semiconductor COGS, so mathematically, a 30% spike in material costs only shaves an additional ~2% off SK Hynix's operating margins. A combined 3-4% direct (utilities) and indirect (materials) energy headwind is easily absorbed by an oligopoly printing 70% margins (and increasing prices). In majority of cases, the costs likely get passed down to hyperscalers through NAND/DRAM price hikes. In the very worst case scenario of oil prices increasing 3x or 5x. The main affect on oil increasing hundreds of percent are two factors: - Global macroeconomic shock, causing global inflation (affecting every single company, from $GOOGL to $COST). - KRW (South korean Won) USD/KRW exchange rate blowout. KRW depreciation from sustained high oil is a real second order risk, but historically Korean memory exporters benefit from won weakness on the revenue side. The majority of Samsung/SK Hynix sales are dollar denominated wheras costs are won denominated. So a weaker KRW is actually margin accretive for exporters, which partially offsets the energy cost headwind. But in an extreme case of oil prices hiking 5x, the only longs in that apocalyptic world are crude oil itself, defense contractors like $LMT / $NOC, domestic US energy producers, and the US Dollar. This is unlikely to happen. The financial media and algorithms will likely panic, but , if crude oil goes from $91 to $120 and KEPCO increases energy costs: The data shows there's little affect on Samsung / SK Hynix in specific, and the main impact are on players with razer-thin operating margins. 2. LNG: If the Hormuz closed, the majority of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. The media has been quoting Hormuz + LNG flows going to China, INdia, SK, and Japan. But if we look at the trade data from South Korea, that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Majority of imports arrive via Hormuz free routes, eg. Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then the rest filled in with minor sources from Nigeria, Peru, Brunei, PNG, etc. The 82% of 2024 important were long term contracts that were oil-indexed, and as we've modeled above, increasing energy costs would hurt opex by 1-2% per 50% increase, but given DRAM/NAND price hikes and operating margins hitting 70%+, this would make a very little dent. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources, and there's little impact on LNG supply disruption. The main concern is oil impacting hiking of LNG. 3. Helium: SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. Helium is critical to semiconductor supply chains, but the media narrative is sensational. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. _ But to South Korean equities in Samsung/SK Hynix, fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality: The algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue. The main threat is oil and energy costs on global macroeconomic shock affecting everything from consumer goods to inflation. March 3 "Black Tuesday" crash dropped KOSPI dropped 7.2% and SK Hynix fell 11.5% in a single session on exactly these energy security fears as the main catalyst. Of course, forced liquidations from leverage added fuel to the fire. However, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the trade. If margins were actually threatened, the selloff would be justified. But, the sell-off destroyed more value in one day than DECADES of hiked energy cost increases could have. The fact that the math doesn't support the fear is precisely why it's Korea is a buy, as markets are selling off on emotion rather than looking at the structural expanding profitability despite increasing oil/energy costs.
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谷歌CTO暗示AI支出激增，澄清市场误判，看好AI基建加速。
@4intheflames $GOOGL 人工智能首席技术官刚刚明确暗示未来8年将增加支出。 https://t.co/zSf77JAHBQ （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： “谷歌数据中心建设规模可能超过1万亿美元” 这对谷歌TPU生态系统1.5万亿美元以上的资本支出意味着什么： 对$LITE、联发科、$AVGO、$TSM、SK海力士、三星等均为广泛利好。 在接受福布斯关于人工智能资本支出的采访时，$GOOGL首席技术官表示： “今年（资本支出）在1750亿至1850亿美元之间，假设不会下降，人们可以想象这在10年内可能延伸到某个巨大的数字。” 福布斯评论道：“谷歌的数据中心野心与OpenAI有着巨大差异：谷歌是一台赚钱机器。” 昨天，市场抛售了OpenAI和$ORCL相关的半导体股票，导致一些“星际之门”相关项目暂停。 市场将OpenAI的成长阵痛与由最富有的超大规模云服务商资助的更广泛的人工智能基础设施建设混为一谈。 从$GOOGL和印钞机般的Mag7角度来看： 人工智能基础设施建设在未来十年看来只会加速。
英文原文
@4intheflames $GOOGL CTO of AI literally just signaled increase spend over the next 8 years. https://t.co/zSf77JAHBQ
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NVDA锁定EML产能，光子学上游材料受制于中国，COWOS/HBM/光子学成瓶颈。
$NVDA 去年锁定了大部分光模块(EML)产能，导致其他超大规模云服务商面临巨大瓶颈。然而，光子学整体是一个材料问题，最上游的材料由中国控制。这并非英伟达能单方面决定的。不过，他们通常是最早布局的，这给 $META、$MSFT、$AMZN、$GOOGL 留下了更多问题，因此本文指出共封装光学(COWOS)、高带宽内存(HBM)和光子学可能是瓶颈。
英文原文
$NVDA secured most of the EML capacity last year and caused a huge bottleneck for other hyperscalers. However, photonics as a whole is a materials problem, the most upstream materials controlled by China. Not exactly something Nvidia can decide. However, they're usually the first to things and that leaves more problems to $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL afterward, hence the point of the post signaling cowos, hbm, and photonics are probably the bottlenecks.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出未放缓，光学组件产能已满，预示AI光子学瓶颈将至，建议持有。
情绪（如战争/石油/LNG）决定短期价格，基本面决定长期价格。 我看不到那些关键的超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN 等）的资本支出有任何放缓迹象。 而且，在光学组件全面扩产之前，从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 的所有产能已在涨价前满负荷运转。 当新的 AI 集群架构采用光子学进行扩展时，这就是即将出现的瓶颈的定义。 如果这些公司的基本面没有发生任何破坏性变化，可能最好持有以度过短期波动。
英文原文
Sentiment (eg. War/Oil/LNG) dictates short term prices, fundamentals dictate prices in the long run. I see zero slowdown from the hyperscaler capex that matters ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, etc). And before the ramp for optical all their capacity from $AAOI to $LITE are already maxed out before price hikes. This is the definition of an upcoming bottleneck when new AI cluster architectures use photonics to scale. If there's been nothing breaking the fundamentals of any of these companies, probably better to hold through short term volatility.
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谷歌AI基建支出庞大且持续加速，利好相关半导体供应链。
“谷歌数据中心建设规模可能突破1万亿美元” 这对谷歌TPU生态系统1.5万亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)意味着什么： 对$LITE、联发科(Mediatek)、$AVGO、$TSM、SK海力士、三星等普遍利好。 在接受福布斯关于AI资本支出的采访时，$GOOGL首席技术官(CTO)表示： “今年在1750亿至1850亿美元之间，假设不会下降，人们可以想象这在10年内可能延伸到某个巨大的数字” 福布斯评论道：“谷歌的数据中心野心与OpenAI有着巨大差异：谷歌是一台赚钱机器” 昨日，市场抛售了OpenAI和$ORCL相关的半导体股，暂停了一些Stargate相关项目。 市场将OpenAI的成长阵痛与由最富有的超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)资助的更广泛的AI基础设施建设混为一谈。 从$GOOGL和印钞机般的Mag7角度来看： AI基础设施建设在未来十年看来只会加速。
英文原文
“Google’s Data Center Buildout Could Top 1 Trillion” The implications for $1.5T+ in capex spend for the Google TPU ecosystem: From $LITE, Mediatek, $AVGO, $TSM, SK Hynix, Samsung and others are widely positive. In an interview with Forbes on AI capex spend, $GOOGL CTO stated: “We’re at $175 to $185 billion this year, one could imagine, assuming it's not going to go down, that this could extend to some big number over 10 years” Forbes comments: “There’s a big difference between Google’s data center ambitions and OpenAI’s: Google is a money-making machine” Yesterday, markets sold off semi names from OpenAI + $ORCL putting a pause on some Stargate related projects. The market conflated OpenAI's growing pains with the broader AI infrastructure buildout funded by the richest hyperscalers. From $GOOGL and a money-printing Mag7 perspective: The AI buildout only looks to accelerate over the next decade.
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除巨头外需警惕宏观与稀释风险，密切跟踪高成长股变化。
同意，除非你的持仓是 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，否则你不能只是躺平四年就确信它会表现良好。密切关注是否有任何实质性变化至关重要。尤其是对于极高贝塔值的超成长型公司，宏观环境、战略转型或过度稀释都可能破坏你的投资逻辑或限制上行空间。
英文原文
Agreed, if your name is not $GOOGL or $TSM where you can just sit back 4 years and know it will likely do well. It’s important to monitor if there’s any material changes. Especially for extremely high beta hypergrowth names where things from macro, pivots, or excessive dilution can break your thesis or cap upside
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警惕与股票“结婚”，投资逻辑变化时应果断调整持仓。
大多数 X 用户都会犯与股票“结婚”的错误。 如果你的投资逻辑因 $HIMS 或 $IREN 发生实质性变化，你的持仓也应随之调整。 如果去年你对 $IREN 的看多逻辑是通过托管(Colo)业务变现 3GW 产能。 那么如果该公司： -> 在 122 亿市值下不可避免地向你稀释 60 亿美元 -> 在每次反弹中将这些股份抛向公开市场 -> 转向 GPU 业务 你的逻辑已经变了。 这很可能是一个退出以追求更具非对称性机会的时机。 如果你对 $HIMS 的逻辑是它是医疗界的亚马逊。 但如果他们被 $NVO 和美国政府起诉至绝境，退出是合理的。 但如果随着 $NVO 撤诉并达成合作，逻辑重新成立，那么再次做多也没有问题。 每个月都有许多因催化剂或基本面而改变的事情。 如果你仍在为必然发生的、针对你 $IREN 持仓的 60 亿美元新股抛售而欢呼。 而你唯一的理由就像 $AMC 投资者那样“信任管理层”。 也许现在是时候问问自己： 你是否因为与股票“结婚”而忽略了所有危险信号？
英文原文
Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock. If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position. If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo. Then if the company: -> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC -> sells those shares into the open market in every rally -> pivots to GPU offerings Your thesis has changed. And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities. If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare. But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit. But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again. A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals. If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally. And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors. Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this: Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?
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解析光子学材料至云厂商的光模块上游供应链瓶颈。
是的，如果你向光模块的光学收发器更上游追溯，例如 $AXTI 是光子学领域最终的材料瓶颈。他们通常供应给外延片(epiwafer)公司如 $IQE，后者再供应给 $LITE -> $LITE Cloudlight -> $FN -> $GOOGL。沿途还有像 $TSEM 这样的公司，以及向 $IQE/Landmark 出售反应器的随机欧洲厂商。
英文原文
Yeah if you go more upstream for optical transceivers for example, $AXTI is the end of the end materials bottleneck for photonics. They usually they supply to epiwafer companies like $IQE that supply to $LITE -> $LITE cloudlite -> $FN -> $GOOGL. And companies like $TSEM along the way + random European reactor sellers to $IQE/Landmark.
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澄清Oracle数据中心项目正常，视AI板块错杀为买入机会。
针对彭博社报道的最新回应：“Oracle与OpenAI的数据中心项目现有计划仍在按部就班进行。” 昨日因虚假的出口管制新闻，从$NVDA到$LITE的半导体板块遭遇暴跌。现在，关于$ORCL的消息是否会导致又一个类似的交易日？
英文原文
In a new response to Bloomberg article: “Existing plans for Oracle's data center project with OpenAi remain on track” The first Bloomberg report caused a crash in Semis from $NVDA to $LITE yesterday from false export control news. And now we have potentially another one day regarding involving $ORCL?
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AI板块因OpenAI消息大跌，但META介入带来特定个股买入机会。
说实话，彭博社的标题竟然连续第二天导致半导体市场崩盘，这确实令人印象深刻。 $LITE 下跌 14.4% $NVDA 下跌 3.5% $TSM 下跌 4.4%。 消息是 Oracle 和 OpenAI 没有扩大其 Stargate 项目的一部分。 这看起来比昨天的报道更可信，因为 OpenAI 的“传染效应”正在蔓延。 但在文章最底部，他们补充道： $META 将介入并考虑从开发商 Crusoe 那里租赁位于德克萨斯州阿比林的规划扩建场地。 这看起来像是特定个股的买入机会，因为 AI 交易的范围现在已经远远超出了 OpenAI，并且现在由从 $GOOGL 到 $META 的盈利超大规模云服务商提供资金支持。
英文原文
It’s honestly impressive Bloomberg titles have managed to crash the Semi Market for a second day in a row. $LITE down 14.4% $NVDA down 3.5% $TSM down 4.4%. On the news that Oracle and OpenAI are not expanding a part of their Stargate project. This looks more legitimate than yesterday’s report as the OpenAI contagion is spreading. At the very bottom, they left added: $META, to step in and consider leasing the planned expansion site in Abilene, Texas, from developer Crusoe. This looks like a buying opportunity for specific names, as the AI trade has expanded far beyond OpenAI now and is now funded by profitable hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $META.
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因巨额稀释及风险收益失衡，作者看空 $IREN 并推荐 $CIFR 和 $NBIS。
我看不到任何持有 $IREN 的 compelling case（有力理由）。 尤其是考虑到在 $128亿市值下新增 $60亿的股票稀释。 人们可能会看到市值膨胀至 $200-$250亿。 但他们的股份价值会随时间递减。 风险收益比已经不再存在。 像 $CIFR 这样的公司，通过 Fluidstack 为 $AMZN 和 $GOOGL 提供 Colo（数据中心托管）模式，提供了更具非对称性的上行空间。 而像 $NBIS 这样的公司则提供更好的多元化（Robotaxis（自动驾驶出租车）、ClickHouse），执行风险更低，且资本支出得到良好支持。 对于 $IREN，无法合理化接近市值一半的稀释并为此欢呼。 即使有新的 Hyperscaler（超大规模云服务商）交易，风险收益比也不存在。 我去年对 $IREN 看多，但已卖出。持有者经历了从： -> 3GW 容量，轻资产，Colo 模式（我曾看好） -> 为 $MSFT 购买 GPU 并为其转型的执行风险欢呼（我不看好） 到 -> 为 $60亿新股稀释欢呼，并在公开市场上被反向抛售。（AMC 接盘者领地） 如果你努力证明新的 ~50% 稀释是好事，且在你持仓被抛售时信任管理层： 抱歉告诉你，你现在加入了数据中心领域的 $AMC 等价俱乐部。 市场上有更好的多头标的。
英文原文
I see zero compelling case to hold $IREN. Especially given the new $6B share dilution at a $12.8B marketcap. People will likely see that marketcap inflate to $20-$25B. But the value of their shares decrease over time. The risk reward is just not there anymore. Companies like $CIFR offer much more asymmetrical upside given their colo model for $AMZN and $GOOGL through Fluidstack. And companies like $NBIS offer much better diversification (robotaxis, clickhouse), derisked execution, and are well supported for capex. With $IREN, there’s no way to justify being diluted close to half the market cap and cheering that on. Even with a new hyperscaler deal there’s risk reward is just not there. I was bullish $IREN last year but sold it. As holders went from: -> 3GW capacity, asset lite, Colo model (was a fan of this) -> Buying GPUs for $MSFT and cheering on execution risks from the pivot (not a fan) Into -> Cheering on $6B of new share dilution + getting sold on the open market against their positions. (AMC bagholder territory) If you’re trying hard to justify why new ~50% dilution is a good thing sold against your positions and trusting in management: Sorry to tell you, that you’re now in the $AMC equivalent club for datacenters. There are much better longs out there.
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看好$AAOI美国制造优势，认为其将超越$LITE并获超大规模云厂商青睐。
我们已经起飞……尽管更广泛的光子学板块下跌，$AAOI 仍上涨 11.26%。 每个人都在寻找下一个从 49 美元涨到 614 美元的 $LITE。 有时候，它可能就坐在你面前？ 高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真心认为这很容易在明年实现 3 倍增长。 英伟达资助了 $COHR，后者在马来西亚进行 800G/1.6T 的制造。 $LITE 在泰国使用 $FN 进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造设施。 我会不断强调这一点，但 Applied Optoelectronics 是唯一纯正的“美国制造”光收发器标的。 再次重申，两家“美国”光公司将其外包给亚洲，而 $AAOI 多年来一直在德克萨斯州建设产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以建立美国版本，以隔离其最关键供应链的地缘政治风险。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链设置，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（市值 550 亿美元）2026 财年预估约 29.1 亿美元。 $AAOI（市值 71 亿美元）2027 年下半年：43.5 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）。 如果管理层执行到位（且拥有约 40% 的毛利率），$AAOI 实际上将超越 $LITE 2026 财年的预测。 再说一次。$AAOI（70 亿美元市值）如果实现其预测，将超越 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）整个 2026 年的收入预测。 亚洲的 $FN，2026 年预测实际上与 AAOI 完全相同。 12.4% 的毛利率带来约 43.9 亿美元收入。而它的市值是 200 亿美元（且毛利率低得多）。 即使 $AAOI 只达到目标的 70%，其估值也很可能大幅重估，远超当前市值。 简而言之：在这些水平上很难看到 $AAOI 的下行风险，尤其是随着 3-4 家超大规模云厂商（可能是 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN）希望购买其未来几年的所有产能。而且 $GOOGL 不采用共封装光学(CPO) 路线。 $AAOI 在增长方面超越了 $CRDO、$ALAB、$LITE 等，并受益于光子学主题相对于铜缆（前两者）的优势。 只要管理层交付成果，$AAOI 仍然是 1 年期高确信度的非对称性机会。
英文原文
We've reached liftoff... $AAOI +11.26% despite the broader photonics names down. Everyone is trying to find the next $LITE that went from $49 to $614. Sometimes, it might just be sitting right in front of you? https://t.co/deBAD017ll
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对比LITE、AAOI和COHR的风险收益特征及配置建议
这取决于你的风险偏好。我非常看好 $LITE，由于它与 $GOOGL 的 TPU 项目紧密绑定，股价很可能继续走高。 鉴于 $AAOI 的市值规模及营收的极端增长潜力，其实现多倍回报的潜力更大，我只是想尝试寻找下一个 $LITE。 我认为 $COHR 可能是最安全的选择，如果我要配置资金并使其成为最大仓位的话。
英文原文
Depends on your risk profile. I really, really like $LITE, likely going higher as it's tethered to $GOOGL TPU program. $AAOI just has more potential for multi-x return given MC size and extreme revenue ramp, just wanted to try and find the next $LITE. I do think $COHR is probably the safest, if I were to be parking capital + making it the largest position.
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澄清AVGO推迟CPO利好传统光模块，市场误读导致板块错杀。
整个市场都误解了 $AVGO 首席执行官关于共封装光学(CPO)的言论。 这导致今天光子学板块从 $LITE 到 $COHR 在早盘出现抛售。 市场往往根据头条新闻进行交易，却忽略了所有细微差别。 CPO 是光子学技术的一种演进。 这种延迟对某些光子学参与者如 $AAOI 来说极其利好。 虽然对 Soitec 等 CPO 公司而言总体是负面的。 市场和人们将 CPO 与整个光子学板块混为一谈。 Tan 基本上只是给传统光收发器制造商的产品生命周期带来了巨大的延长。 原话如下： “我想说的是，你不需要去追逐那些被称为 CPO 的闪亮新事物，即使我们是 CPO 的领导者。CPO 会在适当的时候到来，不是今年，也许也不是明年，但会在它该来的时候到来。” 事实上，$GOOGL 拒绝 CPO 且 $AVGO 将 CPO 时间线预测推迟数年： 这可能是对许多光子学公司（如开盘下跌 8% 后翻红的 $AAOI（光收发器））来说最棒的事情。 机架内部，超大规模数据中心仍可使用铜缆。但对于更长距离，使用的是可插拔光收发器（现在其生命周期延长了数年）。 个股往往被一起抛售，但最大的赚钱机会在于理解大家忽略的细微差别。
英文原文
The entire market misunderstood $AVGO CEO’s comments around CPO. This caused a selloff today on the photonics sector from $LITE to $COHR in the morning. Markets trade off headline news but miss all the nuances. CPO is an evolution to photonics. This delay is extremely bullish to certain photonics players like $AAOI. While net negative to CPO companies like Soitec. Markets and people conflated CPO with the photonics sector as a whole. Tan basically just gave traditional transceiver makers a massive extension on their product lifecycle. The exact quote: "What all I'm trying to say is you don't need to go run into some bright shiny objects called CPO, even as we are the lead in CPOs. CPOs will come in its time, not this year, maybe not next year, but in its time." In fact, $GOOGL rejecting CPO and $AVGO delaying CPO timeline projections by years: Is probably the most greatest thing that can happen to many photonics companies like $AAOI (optical transceivers) that dropped 8% on open then recovered to green. Inside the rack, hyperscalers can still use copper. But for longer distances, pluggable optical transceivers are used (and now get a life extension by years). Names get sold off all together, but where the most money to be made is understanding the nuances everyone misses.
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分析$AAOI空头逻辑与执行风险，看好其超大规模云需求及潜在10倍回报。
我看到的关于 $AAOI 的空头基本观点是：2.5亿美元的定向增发(ATM)不足以覆盖产能爬坡，他们还需要5000万至2.78亿美元（考虑到规模，这只是小钱）。 主要论点始终围绕执行力和潜在逆风： - 他们能否将台湾组装业务回流美国 - 扩大激光产能，以便不再零星使用 $COHR - 制造扩张的执行情况 - 中国厂商是否会导致毛利率压缩 - 共封装光学(CPO)的到来（$GOOGL + $AVGO 已确认其退出） 我不认为这是客户集中度问题，因为从 $AMZN、$MSFT 到 $META 的每个超大规模云服务商都在抢购他们能生产的所有供应。 但我认为风险已经计入市值(MC)，超大规模云服务商的需求加上 $NVDA 资助生态系统可能是最大的顺风+信号。 如果他们能执行到位，这多少让我想起 $RKLB 的“中子星”火箭。如果完美执行，我看到10倍的空间。如果不能，那就是我为上行空间承担的风险。
英文原文
The base case I’ve seen from $AAOI short sellers was that the $250m ATM doesn’t cover the capacity ramp and they needed $50m-$278m more (which is pennies given scale) The main argument is always around execution and potential headwinds: - whether they can reshore Taiwan assembly to US - scale up laser capacity so they don’t need to use $COHR here and there - executing on manufacturing expansion. - whether there’s margin compression from Chinese players - cpo arrival ( $GOOGL + $AVGO confirmed its way out) I don’t see it being a customer concentration problem since every hyperscaler from $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are trying to buy up any supply they can make. But I see the risk being priced into MC already and hyperscaler demand + $NVDA funding the ecosystem is probably the biggest tailwind + signal. It sorta does gives me $RKLB neutron vibes if they can execute. And if they can flawlessly I see it being a 10x. And if they don’t, that’s the risk I’m taking for the upside.
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澄清博通观点，认为其表态利好AAOI。
我想你误解了，$AVGO 表示共封装光学(CPO)仍处于早期阶段。这与光子学/光收发器整体市场是不同的。他表示可插拔光模块和铜缆将继续主导市场。这一表态以及 $GOOGL 在另一份分析师报告中拒绝 CPO，对 $AAOI 来说是非常看涨的信号。
英文原文
Think you misunderstood, $AVGO said CPO was early. That’s different than photonics/optical transceivers as a whole. He said pluggable optical and copper will continue to dominate the market. This statement and $GOOGL rejecting CPO from the other analyst note is incredibly bullish for $AAOI.
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看好AAOI当前估值，若Q2指引向好有望重估至470亿，建议定投。
感觉目前 $120-150亿 的市值(Market Cap)是一个不错的短期风险调整后价值。如果有关于其 2027 年第二季度(Q2 2027)预测的更多积极信号，估值应该会重新定价至 $470亿 左右（当然需要关注共封装光学(CPO)等领域的竞争格局，但 $GOOGL 和 $AVGO 已经证实该领域前景广阔）。鉴于 $AAOI 的高波动性，如果出现更好的入场点我并不意外，但定投(Dollar Cost Averaging)也不会错。
英文原文
Feels like $12-15B MC is a good near term risk adjusted value right now. And if there’s more positive signals toward their q2 2027 projections, should get repriced toward that $47B mark (of course need to monitor the landscape with cpo and others but $GOOGL and $AVGO helped confirm it’s way out) Given the high volatility with $AAOI would not be surprised if there’s better entry points but cost averaging can’t hurt.
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$AAOI 具备全产业链美国制造优势，有望超越同行营收，高确信度看涨。
$AAOI 令人极度兴奋。 如果他们能执行到位，明年市值有望从 70 亿美元重估至 350 亿美元甚至更高。 我将简要概述行业格局及原因： 组装环节： -> 从 $LITE / $COHR 采购激光器 -> 根据蓝图组装 -> 然后销售光收发器(transceiver)。 $FN (亚洲) -> 市值约 200 亿美元。 预计营收约 40 亿美元，毛利率 12.4%。 设计 + 组装： - 从 $LITE / $COHR 采购激光器，设计 800G 和 1.6T 产品 -> 然后销售光收发器。 中际旭创 (中国)：市值约 840 亿美元 毛利率约 46.2%，预计营收约 110 亿美元 新易盛 (中国)：市值约 500 亿美元： 预计营收约 53 亿美元 激光器： - 制造激光器出售给中际旭创 + 新易盛，或制造激光器 + 设计后交给 $FN 组装。 $LITE，市值 550 亿美元： 2026 财年预估营收约 29.1 亿美元（~40% 毛利率） （他们也做激光器以外的业务，例如 $LITE 通过 Cloudlite 进行设计 -> $FN 根据蓝图组装，但并非端到端全流程）。 （$COHR 和 $AVGO 也这样做） _ _ _ _ _ _ 整个供应链（激光芯片、设计和组装） $AAOI 市值 75 亿美元： 2027 年中点预估年化经常性收入 (ARR) 约 45 亿美元（40% 毛利率） - $AAOI 制造激光器（像 $LITE），从零开始设计（像中际旭创），然后像 $FN 一样组装： -> $AAOI 内部完成 $LITE / $COHR 的激光器制造 -> $AAOI 完成中际旭创/新易盛的光收发器设计。 -> $AAOI 完成 $FN 的组装。 这实现了全环节的利润率扩张/优化。 最棒的是，他们预计将超越 $LITE 2026 财年预估的约 29.1 亿美元营收... 通过：2027 年中点实现约 45 亿美元 ARR 当你看到 $AAOI 的 75 亿美元市值。 再看光电子供应链的每个部分，从市值 550 亿美元的 $LITE 到市值 550 亿美元的新易盛。 任何人都能看到如果执行到位，其原始、纯粹的上涨空间。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真切地认为这很容易在明年实现 3 倍增长。 英伟达资助了 $COHR，后者在马来西亚制造 800G/1.6T 产品。 $LITE 使用泰国的 $FN 进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造设施。 我会不断强调这一点，但 Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 是唯一纯正的美国制造光收发器标的。 再次强调，两家“美国”光电子公司将业务外包到亚洲，而 $AAOI 花了多年时间在德克萨斯州建立产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以建立美国版本，以隔离其最关键供应链的地缘政治风险。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链布局，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）2026 财年预估约 29.1 亿美元 $AAOI（71 亿美元市值）2027 年下半年：43.5 亿美元 ARR。 如果管理层执行到位，$AAOI 实际上将超越 Lite 2026 年的营收预测（且毛利率约 40%）。 再说一次。$AAOI（70 亿美元市值）如果达成预测，将超越 $LITE（550 亿美元市值）整个 2026 年的营收预测。 亚洲的 $FN，2026 年预测实际上与 AAOI 完全相同。 ~43.9 亿美元营收，毛利率 12.4%。市值 200 亿美元（且毛利率低得多） 即使 $AAOI 只达成目标的 70%，其估值也很可能大幅重估，远超当前市值。 简而言之：在这些价位很难看到 $AAOI 的下行风险，尤其是 3-4 家超大规模云厂商（可能是 $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）希望购买其未来几年的所有产能。且 $GOOGL 不采用共封装光学(CPO) 路线。 $AAOI 在增长方面超越 $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE 等，并受益于光电子主题而非铜缆（前两者）。 只要管理层交付成果，$AAOI 仍然是 1 年期高确信度的非对称性机会。
英文原文
$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting. There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute. I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why: Assembly: -> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints -> then sell the transceiver. $FN (Asia) -> ~$20B MC. ~$4B projected revenue, 12.4% gross margins. Design + Assembly: - Buys lasers from $LITE / $COHR, design the 800G and 1.6T -> then sells the transceiver. Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~ 46.2% gross margins, ~$11B projected revenue Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B projected revenue Lasers: - Creates the Lasers to sell to Innolight + Eoptolink or creates the lasers + design to give to $FN to assemble for them/. $LITE, $55B MC: FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B (~40% margin) (they also do more than lasers, eg. $LITE with Cloudlite does design -> $FN to assemble based on blueprints too, but not the entire process end-to-end). ( $COHR and $AVGO do this too) _ _ _ _ _ _ Entire supply chain (laser chips, design, and assembly) $AAOI $7.5B MC: Midpoint 2027 est. ~4.5B ARR (40% margin) - $AAOI makes the laser (like $LITE), designs it from ground up (like Innolight), then assembles it like ( $FN ): And it's primarily made in the USA. -> $AAOI does the $LITE / $COHR lasers in-house -> $AAOI does Innolight/Eoptolink transceiver design. -> $AAOI does $FN's assembly. This is possible margin expansion/optimization across the board. Best of all they're projected to leapfrogging $LITE's FY2026 projected ~$2.91B revenue... By doing: ~4.5B ARR mid-year 2027 When you look at $AAOI's $7.5B Marketcap. And you look at each part of the photonics supply chain from $LITE at $55B to Eoptolink at $55B. Anyone can see the raw, unadulterated upside if they execute.
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AAOI获三大云厂商抢购产能，预期已部分定价，风险在于执行。
我去年在$AAOI股价约$28时便已建仓，至今涨幅已达3倍。起初我对它并没有很高的确信度，只是认为鉴于“美国制造”供应链优势及当时超大规模云服务商的资格认证，它具备潜力。但管理层近期的指引最终让我下定决心，因此我在当前价位加仓。拥有三家超大规模云服务商（可能是$GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT）抢购其所有产能，这是极其看涨的信号。尤其是当它们预测2027年下半年月收入将达到3.78亿美元时。市场是前瞻性的，所以我认为这一预期现在已开始被定价。唯一的变数是执行能力，但这正是投资大多数公司所必须承担的风险。
英文原文
I was actually in $AAOI since $28-ish last year, so it's 3x'd since then. But didn't really have high conviction in it, just thought it had potential given Made in America supply chains + hyperscaler qualification at the time. But management projections recently sealed the deal, so I ended up buying more around these levels. Having 3 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, buying up any supply you can make is incredibly bullish. Especially when they're projecting $378M a month revenue round H2 2027. Markets are forward looking so I think it started to get priced in now. Only uncertainty is execution, but that's the risk you're taking with majority of companies.
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看好$AAOI美国制造优势，认为其营收将超越同行且下行风险小。
高确信度做多：$AAOI。 我真心认为这明年很容易翻3倍。 英伟达资助了$COHR，后者在马来西亚进行800G/1.6T的制造。 $LITE在泰国使用FN进行量产，并在泰国拥有自己的制造工厂。 我会一直强调这一点，但Applied Optoelectronics是唯一纯正的“美国制造”光收发器标的。 再次重申，两家“美国”光通信公司将业务外包到了亚洲，而$AAOI则花了多年时间在德克萨斯州建设产能和晶圆厂。 英伟达刚刚资助了$COHR和$LITE以建立美国版本，旨在将其最关键的供应链与地缘政治风险隔离。 但猜猜谁已经建立了供应链布局，在这方面领先数年？$AAOI。 $LITE（市值550亿美元）2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元。 $AAOI（市值71亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年化经常性收入(ARR)。 如果管理层执行到位（且拥有约40%的毛利率），$AAOI实际上将超越$LITE 2026财年的预测。 再说一次。如果$AAOI实现其预测，它将超越$LITE（市值550亿美元）整个2026年的营收预测。 亚洲的$FN，2026年预测实际上与AAOI完全相同。 营收约43.9亿美元，毛利率12.4%。且其市值为200亿美元（毛利率低得多）。 即使$AAOI只达到目标的70%，其估值重估很可能远超当前市值。 总结：在这些价位上，$AAOI很难看到下行风险，尤其是3-4家超大规模云厂商（可能是$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN）希望购买其未来数年的所有产能。且$GOOGL不采用共封装光学(CPO)路线。 $AAOI在增长方面超越了$CRDO、$ALAB、$LITE等，并受益于光子学主题相对于铜缆（前两者）的优势。 只要管理层兑现承诺，$AAOI仍是一个非对称的1年高确信度标的。
英文原文
High conviction long: $AAOI. I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year. Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T. $LITE uses FN in Thailand for volume production, and has it's own manufacturing in Thailand. I will keep hammering this home but Applied Optoelectronics is only pure Made in America, optical transceiver play. Again, the two "American" optical companies outsourced it to Asia, while $AAOI spent the years building up capacity and fabs in Texas. Nvidia funded both $COHR and $LITE just now to build out a US-version to insulate its most critical supply chain from geopolitical risks. But guess who already has the supply chain setup and is years ahead in that regard? $AAOI. $LITE ($55B) FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($7.1B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. $AAOI will actually leapfrong Lite FY 2026 projections if management executes (and with ~40% gross margins). Once again. $AAOI ($7B) will leapfrog $LITE ($55B MC) entire 2026 revenue projections if they deliver their projections. $FN over in Asia, 2026 projections are actually around the exact same as AAOI. ~4.39B revenue off 12.4% gross margins. And it's a $20B MC (with much lower margins) Even if $AAOI hits 70% of their target, it's likely to be heavily re-rated way past it's current marketcap. TLDR: Hard to see downside with $AAOI at these levels, especially with 3-4 hyperscalers (likely $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN) wanting to buy up any capacity it can make for years out. And with $GOOGL not going the CPO route. $AAOI leapfrogs $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE, and others in growth + benefits from photonics theme vs. copper (from the first two). $AAOI remains an asymmetrical 1Y high conviction as long as management delivers.
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CPO技术终将落地，但谷歌暂不采用。
@Maverick5m8 不，共封装光学(CPO)终将实现。只是 $GOOGL（许多TPU资本支出交易都依赖它）刚刚决定说不。
英文原文
@Maverick5m8 No, CPO is going to happen. Just $GOOGL (which a lot of the TPU capex trade relies on) just decided to say nah
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CPO技术前景广阔，NVDA积极布局，AVGO虽失META但仍有其他大客户。
@JK30998937 不，共封装光学(CPO)无论如何都是大势所趋，只是目前情绪略微偏空。$NVDA 正在积极追求这一技术，即使 $GOOGL 没有。这相当于 $META 放弃其专用集成电路(ASIC)项目，且 $AVGO 可能失去一个客户。但博通(Broadcom)仍拥有谷歌和其他超大规模云服务商。
英文原文
@JK30998937 Nah, CPO is up and coming anyway it's just slightly bearish. $NVDA is actively pursuing it even if $GOOGL doesn't. It's the equivalent of $META dropping its ASIC program and $AVGO possibly losing a customer. But Broadcom still has Google and other hyperscalers.
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GOOGL弃用CPO利好可插拔光模块及上游供应链
$GOOGL 拒绝采用共封装光学(CPO) 对整个可插拔光模块生态系统而言是巨大的结构性利好。 大多数人忽略了今日 Needham 分析师关于 $LITE 上调目标价至 $850 的研报中的这一点： 主要受益者：$AAOI、$FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、光收发器公司。 次要受益者（外延晶圆）：$IQE、Landmark 第三级受益者（衬底）：$AXTI、住友( Sumitomo) 降级（CPO）：Soitec 引用：“LITE 看到了一个意外的额外利好，其主要的收发器模块客户（Google）目前在其 TPU 架构中暂无采用 CPO 的计划。”
英文原文
$GOOGL rejecting CPO is a massive structural win for the entire pluggable optics ecosystem. Most people missed this in the Needham analyst note on the $LITE $850 PT upgrade today: Large beneficiaries: $AAOI, $FN, Innolight, transceiver companies. Secondary beneficiaries (epiwafers): $IQE, Landmark Third Order Beneficiaries (substrate): $AXTI, Sumitomo Downgrade (CPO): Soitec Quote: "LITE sees an unexpected bonus that its primary transceiver module customer (Google) currently has no plans to adopt CPO in its TPU architecture from what we have seen."
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通过深挖上游供应链瓶颈及财务验证寻找投资机会
这只是在尽可能上游寻找瓶颈环节。几个月前我发现 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 物料清单(BOM)的重要组成部分时，它被认为非常早期。自那以来它已经翻倍。但大多数人止步于此，没有尝试寻找谁为 Lite 提供外延晶圆(epiwafers)？或者谁提供磷化铟(InP)衬底？其中很多是关系映射中的1+1，然后了解财务状况以判断尽管处于供应链瓶颈，它是否仍是一个真正的好多头标的。
英文原文
It’s just bottleneck hunting as upstream as you can go. Even $LITE was considered really early few months ago when I found out it was a large part of $GOOGL TPU BOM. Since then it’s already doubled. But most people stop there and then don’t try and find who supplies epiwafers for lite? Or who supplies the InP substrates? Lot of it is 1+1 in relational mapping, then knowing financials to see if it’s an actual good long despite being part of a supply chain chokepoint
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通过追踪AI资本支出流向及电网需求来构建投资组合。
我很受宠若惊 lol。但即使指数相对持平，我对表现也很满意！ 很大一部分原因在于追踪资金流向。 例如：$GOOGL $1800亿资本支出 -> TPU项目 -> TPU物料清单(BOM) -> 8-12% $LITE -> 来自 $AXTI 的上游材料或来自 $IQE 的外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 或者仅仅是 DRAM/NAND 价格上涨 -> 简单地做多存储。 最近由于 Elon 和 OpenAI 推动电网扩张和更多容量，焦点转向电力/电网，因此做多 $XLU。 我想这只是运气好赶上了动量？
英文原文
I’m flattered lol. But I’m happy with the performance even with a relatively flat index! A large part of it is mapping where all the spend goes. Eg. $GOOGL $180B capex -> TPU program -> BOM of TPU -> 8-12% $LITE -> upstream materials from $AXTI or epiwafers from $IQE. Or just the DRAM/NAND price hikes -> as simple as going long on memory. Recently it’s been power/grid focused from Elon and OpenAI pushing for grid expansion and more capacity, so long $XLU. I guess it’s just getting lucky with momentum?
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博主感谢粉丝关注，回顾从发梗图到粉丝量激增的经历。
谢谢！我的帖子能引起大家的阅读兴趣，这对我意义重大。 几个月前我开始发帖时，主要是给 Reddit 上的朋友们发梗图和 $UPWK 及 $GOOGL 的技术分析(TA)草图。 但我想其他人也觉得我的其他深度拆解很有洞察力，所以开始关注？从 9K 粉丝增长到今年接近 90K，这真的让我感到谦卑！
英文原文
Thank you! It really means a lot that my posts are interesting enough to read. When I first started posting a few months ago, was mainly to my Reddit friends for memes TA drawings like $UPWK and $GOOGL. But I guess other people found my other breakdowns insightful enough to tune in? It’s pretty humbling to go from 9K followers to close to 90K this year!
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看好$AAOI十倍增长潜力，视其为光子学核心持仓。
$AAOI 对我来说感觉是必须配置的共封装光学(CPO)敞口。 他们的财报简直像黑魔法一样神奇。 $LITE（市值500亿美元）：2026财年预估营收约29.1亿美元 $AAOI（市值56亿美元）2027年下半年：43.5亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 他们的增长预测在2026年实际上已经超越了 $LITE。 我没开玩笑。 $AAOI 的毛利率约为40%，$LITE 凭借光电路交换(OCS)垄断地位可能达到45%。 “长期毛利率目标约为40%。” 别误会，$LITE 是一只极佳的长线股，因为其在 $GOOGL TPU 和 Google 资本支出中占据8-12%的物料清单(BOM)份额... 但 $AAOI 的营收顶层增长接近去年营收的10倍，这简直不可思议。 如果你用草稿纸数学模型计算： “管理层预测，到2027年第二季度，每月光收发器营收潜力达3.78亿美元” ~ 43亿美元目标，40%毛利率（自产），17.2亿美元毛利润，也许~6亿美元资本支出/运营支出： 净利润 ~8.96亿美元。 远期市盈率（基于2027年净利润）：~6.4倍远期市盈率，对应约900%的同比增长。 而且如果你看光子学产能爬坡，预计向2030年呈指数级增长。 从他们的管理层电话会议来看，超大规模云服务商（$GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN）很可能买断了所有可用的光收发器产能。 这让我想起早期的 $ALAB 或 $CRDO，所有超大规模云服务商都是他们的客户。 如果你考虑到像 $SNDK 的NAND闪存那样的价格涨幅： +15% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：14.1亿美元净利润 - （4.1倍远期市盈率） +30% 平均售价(ASP)涨幅：19.2亿美元净利润 - （3.0倍远期市盈率） 这就是为什么我在 $AAOI 财报后如此兴奋。 甚至还没包括 $AAOI “美国制造”的光收发器供应链，这将使他们获得相对于 $FN、中际旭创(Innolight)、易普联(Eptolink)等海外厂商的溢价。 有点像 $INTC 对 $TSM 或 $MU 对 SK海力士的溢价。 如果他们的预测成真，且价格涨幅使光子学板块在800%+增长下达到3倍市盈率，回报率将是天文数字。 再次强调，这些是管理层预测，执行力才是关键。 无论如何，我将 $AAOI 作为我最大的光子学持仓之一，因为这看起来像黑魔法，也是下一个 $SNDK 的开端。 如果他们能实现预测，非零概率是我们在一年半后看到其达到 $LITE 500亿美元的估值。
英文原文
$AAOI feels like must-have photonics exposure to me. Their earnings report is genuinely black magic. $LITE ($50B MC): FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($5.6B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. Their growth projections literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026. Not even kidding. Gross margins are ~40% for $AAOI, maybe 45% for $LITE with OCS monopoly. "-term objective of gross margins to around 40%," Don't get me wrong, $LITE is an amazing long due to 8-12% BOM of $GOOGL TPU and Google capex spend... But $AAOI top line growth for revenue is close to 10X revenue growth from last year's revenue, which is just insane. And if you go off napkin math modeling: "By Q2 2027, management forecasts monthly transceiver revenue potential of $378 million" ~ $4.30B target, 40% margin (in-house), $1.72B gross profit, maybe ~$600m capex/opex: Net income ~$896M. Forward P/E (on 2027 NI): ~6.4x forward p/e off ~900%-ish Y/Y growth. And if you look at photonics ramp, it's expected to increase exponentially toward 2030. From their management call hyperscalers likely ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN ) are buying out all available capacity for transceivers. Reminds me of a early $ALAB or $CRDO where all the hyperscalers are their customers. And if you get to likely price hikes like NAND for $SNDK: +15% ASP Price Hike: $1.41B net income - (4.1x forward p/e) +30% ASP Price Hike: $1.92B net income - (3.0x forward p/e) This is why I got so excited about $AAOI post-earnings. Not even including $AAOI "Made in America" transceiver supply chains that would give them a premium where $FN, Innolight, Eptolink, and others do theirs abroad. Kinda like $INTC to $TSM or $MU to SK Hynix premiums. The ROI for this is just astronomical if they hit their projections and price hikes give them a 3 p/e rate off 800%+ growth in photonics segments. Again, these are management projections, execution is the biggest the name of the game. Regardless, I'm making $AAOI one of my largest photonics positions because this looks like black magic and the beginning of the next $SNDK. There's a nonzero chance we might see this at a $50B $LITE valuation one and a half year from now if they can execute on their projections.
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AAOI财报揭示上游设备与材料瓶颈，IQE等上游厂商受益显著。
来自 $AAOI 财报的二阶效应： -> 对 MBE/MOCVD 反应堆的需求极度旺盛。 它们用于制造外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 这为“制造”环节释放了两个信号： - $IQE 坐拥一座绝对的“金矿” - 资本开支周期将惠及类似 $VECO ($18.5亿) 和 Aixtron ($AIXXF $37亿) 这样的设备商。 引用：3-4 家超大规模云服务商，可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT，对光收发器(transceivers)的需求已触顶。 -> 中际旭创(Innolight)、易普拓(Eptolink)、$COHR 等厂商可能也会经历一轮资本开支周期以满足需求。 这主要利好两家外延晶圆代工代工厂： -> $IQE ($1.75亿) ~100+ 台反应堆 -> 晶品半导体(Landmark) (~$36.8亿) ~27-30 台反应堆。 所以这大概就是为什么 $LITE 大量使用 $IQE，而 Landmark 营收屡创新高。$AAOI 则一直在建设其德州工厂的产能。 总结： 1. Aixtron 和 $VECO 受益于今年类似迷你版 $ASML 的资本开支周期。当 Aixtron 在2月指引中表示预计2026年“整体市场环境持续疲软”时，也许他们在低调隐藏实力(sandbagging)或订单尚未下达。话虽如此，我认为最佳敞口可能并非设备卖家。 2. $IQE 坐拥满足 $LITE 及其他超大规模云服务商对 InP 外延晶圆需求的产能金矿。他们只需成功重组，估值就能更像其台湾同行($36.5亿市值)。 3. $AAOI 的财报显示收发器制造商及其组装所需的组件/材料需求惊人，市场肯定尚未定价。 4. $AXTI 一如既往地成为所有环节的瓶颈，正如我去年所提到的。 名字越响亮(如 $LITE、$COHR)，交易可能越拥挤/已充分定价。 但当你向上游追溯时，还有大量未被市场定价的隐藏宝石，它们将从巨大的光子学扩张中受益。 这是投资者的新淘金热，但本质是瓶颈狩猎。
英文原文
Second order effects from $AAOI earnings: -> Extreme demand for MBE/MOCVD reactors. They're needed for epiwafers. This signals two things for "manufacturing": - $IQE is sitting on an absolute gold mine - capex cycle to ( $VECO $1.85B, Aixtron $AIXXF $3.7B) type players. Quote: 3-4 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT. demand maxed out for transceivers. -> Innolight, Eptolink, $COHR, and others will probably go through a capex cycle to meet demand too. This largely benefits both outsourced foundries for epiwafers: -> $IQE ($175M) ~100+ reactors -> Landmark (~$3.68B) ~27-30 reactors. So that's probably the reason why $LITE has been heavily using $IQE, and Landmark has been hitting record revenues. $AAOI's has been building capacity from their texas fab. TLDR: 1. Aixtron, $VECO benefits from mini $ASML style capex cycle this year. When Aixtron said 2026 "continued softness in overall market environment expected" from feb guidance, maybe they're sandbagging or orders havent come in yet. That being said, best exposure imo is probably not the machine sellers. 2. $IQE is sitting on a gold mine of capacity to meet demand across $LITE and others hyperscalers for inp epiwafers. They just need to restructure succesfully, to be rerated more like their $3.65B friend in Taiwan. 3. $AAOI earnings is just insane demand for both transceiver makers and the components/materials required to assemble them, definitely not priced in yet. 4. $AXTI as always happens to be the bottleneck of everything as I mentioned last year. The more well known the name is ( $LITE, $COHR ) the likely more crowded/priced-in. But when you go more upstream, there's a ton of hidden gems markets haven't priced in yet that benefit from the massive photonics ramp. It's the new gold rush for investors, but bottleneck hunting.
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$AAOI获三大超大规模客户订单，营收激增，基本面强劲。
$AAOI 看起来像是早期的 $SNDK。而且在未来一年，其市值很可能远超 55 亿美元。 在他们的财报电话会议上： - 3 家超大规模客户（可能是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT） - “他们希望购买我们能生产的所有 800G 和 1.6T 光收发器”——完全售罄，就像内存一样。 - 营收增长预测超过 900%，达到 43 亿美元，而当前市值仅为 55 亿美元。 光子学领域的需求史无前例，$AAOI 刚刚证实了这一点。 而且他们随时可以开始提价，将毛利率从 40% 进一步提高。当然，存在执行风险…… 但这是一个你应该关注基本面而非图表的例子。
英文原文
$AAOI looks like an early $SNDK. And is likely going much higher than a $5.5B MC over the next year. On their earnings call: - 3 hyperscale customers (probably $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT) - "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6". - completely sold out, like memory. - 900%+ revenue growth forecast to $4.3B off $5.5B MC. There is unprecedented demand for photonics, and $AAOI just confirmed it. And they can always begin price hikes to increase gross margins from 40%. Of course there are execution risks... But this is one example where you look at fundamentals over chart.
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AI供应链受云厂商资本开支驱动，基本面改善非随机反弹。
@KyleWilson77344 它跟随 $GOOGL 超大规模云服务商的资本支出流向韩国存储、日本瓶颈/材料，以及台湾晶圆代工厂如 $TSM 或 ASIC 设计商如联发科。这主要是运营利润、极端增长以及韩国/日本治理结构的变化，而不仅仅是一次随机的反弹。
英文原文
@KyleWilson77344 Its following $GOOGL hyperscaler capex flows into Korean memory, Japanese bottlenecks/materials, and Taiwan fabs like $TSM or ASIC designers like Mediatek. It’s mainly operating profit, extreme growth, and governance changes in Korea/Japan, not just a random rally.
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深度解析$IQE：通过出售台湾业务去债，转型InP光子学产能，类比矿企转AI。
深入解析 $IQE（市值1.79亿美元）： IQE隐藏的磷化铟(InP)期权价值 vs LandMark 35亿美元的估值。以及 $IREN / $CRWV 等“矿企”向光子学(Potonics)转型的逻辑： 此前我做过一个高层级的“淋浴思考”概览，例如 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs，但这次是更深入的尽职调查(DD)。 基本上：IQE是全球最大的独立商用化合物半导体外延晶圆代工厂，按反应炉数量和物理产能计算。 然而，由于受困于低毛利的传统无线业务和短期流动性约束，其估值处于困境状态。 LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) 是最接近的对比标的。作为800G和1.6T光互连市场中AI InP需求的纯代理标的，LandMark市值约38亿美元，相比市值1.75亿美元的 $IQE 享有巨大溢价。 但如果深入看底层硬件，这种脱节非常有趣： LandMark的运营规模在物理上受限。据估计，他们在台湾单一校区仅运营约27-30台金属有机化学气相沉积(MOCVD)反应炉。 相比之下，IQE在全球拥有超过100台MOCVD和分子束外延(MBE)系统。 IQE光子学资产基础的潜在重置价值和结构性产能似乎远超其当前公开市场估值。 这有点像比特币矿企拥有3GW产能 vs 750MW产能，如果进行转换，前者有巨大的变现期权价值。 我们也看到了光模块瓶颈： -> 下游对光收发器(Optical Transceivers)的需求正在以前所未有的速度加速。 -> 来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 等的极端需求直接向上游硬件供应链传导。 这给Innolight等光模块集成商、$COHR、$LITE 和 $AVGO 等光组件制造商，以及最终为 foundational 激光芯片生长原始外延晶圆的商用外延代工厂带来了巨大压力。 由于其他玩家触及物理产能天花板，像 $COHR 这样的垂直整合玩家已满载，超大规模云厂商和模块制造商迫切需要在 $IQE 这样的玩家中寻找替代产能。 而且... 隐藏在IQE合并报表之下的是大量的 Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM 反应炉。 这些反应炉原生具备双能力(GaAs/InP)，可以以相对较低的成本（每台50万-150万美元）重新用于InP生产，但需要数月或一年时间来重构。当然，执行层面增加了资格认证和良率风险（类似于比特币矿企对GPU进行软件编排，如 $CRWV）。 但无论如何，IQE拥有类似 $IREN 或转型HPC的比特币矿企那样的产能。而LandMark证明了纯代理标的带来的估值溢价。 核心问题.. 释放被困价值： 虽然IQE的营收远高于LandMark，但由于4500万英镑的总债务，其股价（1.75亿美元市值）被定价为破产边缘。 但对超大规模云厂商来说，这笔债务微不足道： 其正在进行的由Lazard指导的战略审查的明确目标是：最终完成IQE台湾（传统GaAs无线业务）的出售，并利用所得资金彻底且永久地消除母公司的限制性债务结构。 再次强调，其可转换贷款票据面值2120万英镑，公司实收1800万英镑。净债务为2350万英镑。 -> 需要立即清除的债务负担：2350万英镑汇丰设施 + 2120万英镑CLN = 约4500万英镑。 假设IQE台湾单元以1亿至1.5亿英镑的高价出售（不保证），IQE在完全无债后将获得5000万至1亿英镑的盈余现金。 然而，射频GaAs目前并不“热门”，因此在困境资产出售中可能仅值5000万至6000万英镑，这足以清偿债务，但缓冲空间很小。 地缘政治转向： 一旦无债，IQE可以将其在北卡罗来纳州和威尔士等地大量闲置的制造产能转向数据中心InP外延晶圆市场。 这为光子学中最关键的瓶颈创造了一条完全资本化、纯西方的供应链，在美国和英国高度重视国内半导体基础设施之际，减少了对亚洲的依赖。 基本上，鉴于 $IQE 拥有的原始资产数量： -> 成功出售台湾业务将消除持续经营风险，清除所有债务，并让他们直接向Tier 1光模块玩家变现其6英寸InP外延晶圆技术。 这是一笔基于成功重组以释放被困价值的深度资产价值交易。且它已是超大规模云厂商光网络的知名供应商（并非科学实验项目）。 下行风险是过度稀释和重组失败。但鉴于其对西方供应链和超大规模云厂商供应链的地缘政治重要性，似乎有更多缓冲。 我个人决定将其作为巨大的潜在反转机会做多。但再次强调，这不适合所有人，风险极高。 TLDR： -> IQE被定价为困境中的射频供应商。 -> 它拥有真正具备光子学能力的硬件基础设施。 -> 如果4100万英镑总债务被移除，且管理层将资本支出重新分配给InP，股权可能大幅重估。 -> 重组+产能期权交易，风险极高但上行空间也极大。 最接近的类比是 $IREN 或 $CIFR 等将GW产能转向AI HPC的比特币矿企。他们拥有大量物理硬件（GW产能），需要资金进行转型（通过出售台湾业务或稀释）。 我乐观地认为他们能做到（像 $INTC 那样，鉴于其对西方的地缘政治重要性，有回旋余地）。 下行风险是极端稀释，这始终是一种可能性（意味着你的股权可能被清零以清偿债务或帮助重构）。 我只是发现4500万英镑总债务（占流通股本+债务的14.4%）并非不可承受，且管理层正试图通过资产出售而非股东稀释来清除债务。 只想发布更深入的拆解和这个非常二元化的**高风险**但潜在高回报交易更多风险。
英文原文
Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M): IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics: Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD. Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity. However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints. LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC. But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating: LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates. IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally. The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation. Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it. And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too: -> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration. -> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain. This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips. And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE And.. Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors. These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV). But still, IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings. The Major Question.. Unlocking Trapped Value: While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M. But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers: The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile. Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million. -> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M. Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free. However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room. The Geopolitical Pivot: Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters. It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure. Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has: -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project). Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion. I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk. TLDR: -> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier. -> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure. -> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially. -> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside. Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution). It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West). The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor). I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders. Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.
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LITE 深度绑定 Google TPU，ASIC 放量预期在 2027-2028 年。
$LITE 与 $GOOGL 的 TPU 项目直接相关，约占物料清单(BOM)价值的 8-12%。其他超大规模云计算提供商的专用集成电路(ASIC)占比可能仅为低个位数百分比。Google 大幅上调了资本支出(Capex)预测数字。市场假设这将惠及 $LITE。我认为你不应该基于 60% 来自 ASIC 放量等任意数字进行建模。大部分光子学/ASIC 的放量预计发生在 2027 年末至 2028 年，市场目前只是在提前交易这一预期。我在股价再次翻倍前的研究论文中做过原始估值计算，最近没有更新。
英文原文
$LITE is directly tied to $GOOGL TPU programs and is ~8-12% of BOM value Other hyperscaler ASICs is likely low single digit %. Google hiked projected capex numbers a lot. And the assumption is that trickles down into $LITE. I don’t think you should model based on arbitrary numbers figures like 60% should be off asic ramp. Majority of photonics/asic ramp is expected to happen late 2027 into 2028, and markets are just frontrunning that now. I did the original valuation math in my thesis before it doubled again, haven’t done it recently.
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英伟达财报虽超预期但股价跌，长期看AI加速，应关注云厂商资本开支。
$NVDA 远超预期，预计营收780亿美元，高于预期的720亿美元。 该股在财报发布后下跌4.82%。 这是一个有争议的观点，但在我看来，英伟达的财报是一个部分滞后指标。 最需要关注的是超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出(Capex)预测以及 $TSM 的预测。 市场倾向于认为 $SNDK 等存储芯片、来自 $TSM 的半导体、电力/电网等其他板块，将主要依据上述两项指标涨跌，因为它们代表了整个人工智能(AI)行业。特别是随着从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN 的超大规模云服务商纷纷加速构建其专用集成电路(ASIC)（除英伟达外）。 英伟达大幅超预期仅仅是已实现的确认，表明人工智能交易可能会加速。 短期流动性和做市商(MM)头寸影响周度价格，但长期来看，情况似乎将进一步加速。
英文原文
$NVDA blows away expectations, with $78B in revenue projected vs. $72B. The stock dropped 4.82% on the earnings. Controversial opinion but Nvidia earnings is a partially lagging indicator to me. The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections. Markets like $SNDK in memory, semis from $TSM, power/grid and others are likely to rise/fall based on those two in specific as they represent the entire AI sector as a whole. Especially as hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN rush out to build their on ASICs (apart from Nvidia) Nvidia beating by a wide margin is just realized confirmation that the AI trade is likely to accelerate. Short term liquidity and MM positioning affect weekly prices, but long term, things look to accelerate even further.
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IQE 重组后有望对标 Landmark 实现大幅重估，是超大规模云厂商光子学供应链的二元高赔率标的。
如果要在 $AXTI 之后只选一只 10 倍股，那可能是 $IQE。 我的思考过程简版： - 最接近的对比是台湾的 LandMark Optoelectronics（用于外延片 epiwafers）。其估值约为 38 亿美元。 - $LITE <- $IQE 是已知关系，且 $LITE 是 $GOOGL TPU 和超大规模云厂商 ASIC 的已知供应商。 - IQE 是全球最大的外延片晶圆代工企业，估值仅为 1.5 亿美元。 - 为什么 Landmark 估值 38 亿而 IQE 仅 1.5 亿？$IQE 有 2350 万英镑净债务和 1800 万英镑可转换票据。以及传统智能手机射频业务的拖累。 - Landmark 是磷化铟 (InP) 外延片的纯概念股，其估值展示了 IQE 的潜力。 - 所以当你看净债务 + 可转换票据……4100 万英镑基本上就是零钱？尤其对于超大规模云厂商供应链而言。 - Landmark 有 27 到 30 台 MOCVD 反应器。IQE 运营超过 100 台。 - $IQE 需要做的就是重组（他们正在做），出售拖累业务将消除债务。并专注于光子学供应链，其产能远超台湾同行，这将证明重新估值的合理性。 基本上，如果你看一个规模更小（但更纯粹的 $IQE 版本 Landmark），其估值接近 IQE 当前业务的 25 倍。 downside 是你会被稀释到虚无，但 4100 万英镑对超大规模云厂商来说感觉没什么？ 所以这是一个基于 $IQE 在超大规模云厂商光子学供应链中的重要性，因重新估值而产生的二元非对称性“登月”选择。
英文原文
If I had to pick a 10x return-stock only after $AXTI, it would probably be $IQE. My thought process TLDR: - Closest comparison would be Taiwan's LandMark Optoelectronics for epiwafers. It's valued at ~$3.8B. - $LITE <- $IQE is a known relation, and $LITE is a known supplier to $GOOGL TPUs and hyperscaler ASICs. - IQE is the largest epiwafer foundry in the world, valued at $150M. - Why is Landmark valued at $3.8B vs. $150M? $IQE has -£23.5 million net debt and £18M convertible notes. And drag from legacy smartphone RF. - Landmark is pure play for InP epiwafer and just an idea to what it could be valued at. - So when you go look at net debt + convertibles... £41M is basically pennies? Especially to a hyperscaler supply chain. - Landmark has 27 to 30 MOCVD reactors. IQE operates over 100. - All $IQE needs to do is restructure (which they're doing now), selling off their drag will remove debt. And focusing on the photonics supply chain with much more capacity than their Taiwan counterparty would warrant rerating. Basically, if you look at a much smaller sized (but more pure-play version of $IQE in Landmark), it's valued at close to 25 times IQE's current business. The downside is you get diluted to oblivion, but the £41M feels kinda like nothing to hyperscalers? So this is a binary asymmetrical moonshot pick on re-rating due to $IQE's importance in the hyperscaler supply chains for photonics.
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IQE关联巨头但负债高，属高风险博弈，波动性预计剧烈。
$IQE 是一家市值1.5亿美元的备受关注的公司，我发现了它与 $LITE（Lumentum）和 GOOGL（谷歌）之间的联系！不过，其资产负债表相当糟糕，处于净债务（Net Debt）状态。尽管如此，这更像是一场“孤注一掷的赌局”，即它在收发器(Transceiver)或超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)供应链中的重要性，是否能抵消其糟糕的财务状况。顺便说一句，这只股票的波动性（Volatility）看起来会和 $AXTI 一样剧烈！
英文原文
$IQE は時価総額1億5,000万ドルの注目銘柄で, $LITE （ルメンタム）や GOOGL（グーグル）との繋がりを見つけました！ただ、バランスシートはかなりボロボロで実質有利子負債（ネットデット）の状態です。とはいえ、トランシーバーやハイパースケーラーのサプライチェーンにおける重要性が、財務状況の悪さを上回るかどうかの「一か八かの賭け」といったところですね。 それはそうと、この銘柄も $AXTI と同じくらいボラティリティ（価格変動）が激しくなりそうです！
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AXTI因光电子供应链瓶颈受追捧，需挖掘多跳连接以发现未定价机会。
如果你听了匿名者的话，$AXTI 现在是不是已经‘上天’了？ 在 $GOOGL 创下资本支出记录后，市场正疯狂寻求光电子（Photonics）供应链的敞口。 如果你问 AI：“AXT 或 IQE 是否属于 Google TPU 供应链”： - 它会说“不”，因为存在被掩盖的多跳连接。 但如果你映射出从： $AXTI ($21亿) -> $IQE ($1.5亿) -> $LITE -> 超大规模客户 ASICs… 的流向，你可能会发现市场尚未定价的早期机会。
英文原文
$AXTI has now reached the Moon if you listened anon? Markets are scrambling to get exposure to photonics supply chains following $GOOGL record capex numbers. If you ask an AI: “Is AXT or IQE part of Google TPU supply chains”: - It will say no due to obscured multi-hop connections. But if you map the flow from: $AXTI ($2.1B) -> $IQE ($150M) -> $LITE -> Hyperscaler ASICs… You might discover something early that markets haven’t priced in.
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通过多跳关系映射，挖掘光子学上游关键供应商AXTI和IQE的投资逻辑与风险。
-> $LITE 是 $GOOGL 的已知供应商。 -> $IQE 是 $LITE 的已知供应商。 -> $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。 Google TPU 和超大规模客户 ASIC 的物料清单(BOM)极其机密。 但即使没人会说 $AXTI 或 $IQE 供应给某家超大规模客户，你也能通过关系映射大致推测出来。 你会惊讶于有多少多跳关系被忽视了。 （引用内容）：我是第一个讨论 $AXTI 与光子学物料清单/供应链关系的人： $IQE 也很有趣，作为少数西方供应商之一。 基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模客户 ASIC 的光子学流向，大概如下（很可能，但未披露）： 光收发器（最高 BOM）： Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ 关键 / $AXTI-> $AXTI/住友/JX -> $IQE (外延晶圆) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (代工) -> $GOOGL TPU Merchant 光学供应链： ~ 关键 / $AXTI -> $AXTI / 住友 / JX -> $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> 中际旭创/新易盛 -> $GOOGL 所以如果你想找光子学 BOM 更上游的“登月计划”型/涨价股：$AXTI 和 $IQE 是必经之路。 $AXTI 此前基本面很差，但最近的 Northland 融资轮确立了其涨势。 $IQE 目前基本面很差（净债务 2350 万英镑），但可能是供应链中最关键的部分。如果他们能出售台湾业务，仅凭其 inp 业务，股价大幅上涨也不足为奇。 有 1800 万英镑可转换票据（几乎可以忽略不计），然后是新发 1.2 亿至 1.54 亿股（~12% 至 15%），相对于当前规模也几乎可以忽略不计。 另一方面，$LITE 和中际旭创可能更成熟。 TLDR: $IQE -> 似乎对西方供应链至关重要，市值 1.3 亿英镑。净债务，如果出售台湾业务 -> 强烈重估，或者他们可能只是稀释你。 但如果台湾业务未能出售，预计会被稀释到像 Wolfspeed 那样。所以风险巨大，务必自行研究风险。 但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说很有趣（我持有 $IQE）。
英文原文
-> $LITE is a known $GOOGL supplier. -> $IQE is a known $LITE supplier. -> $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. Google TPU + Hyperscaler ASIC BOM are extremely confidential. But you can kinda guess from relationship mapping even though nobody will say $AXTI or $IQE supplies to X hyperscaler? You'd be surprised how multi-hop relationships are missed.
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解析光子学上游供应链，看好AXTI与IQE但提示IQE稀释风险。
我是最早将 $AXTI 与光子学(BOM)/供应链联系起来的人： $IQE 也很有趣，作为少数西方供应商之一。 基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模ASIC的光子学流程，大概是这样（很可能，但未披露）： 光模块(最高BOM)： Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/住友/JX -> $IQE (外延晶圆) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (代工制造) -> $GOOGL TPU Merchant optical 供应链： ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / 住友 / JX -> $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> 中际旭创/新易盛 -> $GOOGL 所以如果你想找光子学BOM/涨价的“登月型”股票，更上游的光子学BOM：$AXTI, $IQE 是你的方向。 $AXTI 之前基本面很差，但最近的Northland融资轮确立了其涨势。 $IQE 现在基本面很差（净债务2350万英镑）但可能是供应链中最关键的部分。如果他们能出售台湾业务，我不惊讶它会仅因inp业务就大幅上涨。 有1800万英镑可转换票据（这几乎没什么），然后是1.2亿到1.54亿新股（~12%到15%），相对于当前规模也几乎没什么。 另一方面，$LITE 和中际旭创可能更成熟。 TLDR: $IQE -> 似乎对西方供应链至关重要，市值1.3亿英镑。净债务，如果出售台湾业务 -> 强烈重估，或者他们可能只是稀释你。 但如果台湾业务未能出售，预计会被稀释到像Wolfspeed那样。所以巨大、巨大的风险，请自行研究风险。 但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说很有趣（我持有 $IQE）。
英文原文
Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains: $IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers. Basically if you look at photonics flow on $GOOGL TPU/hyperscaler ASICs kinda looks like this (very likely, but undisclosed): Optical Transceivers (highest BOM): Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE (Epi-Wafers) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (Contract Manufacturing) -> $GOOGL TPU Merhcant optical supply chain: ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL So if you want moonshot-type photonics BOM / price-hikes stocks deeper upstream in the photonics BOM: $AXTI, $IQE and your way to go. $AXTI had terrible fundamentals before but the recent Northland fundraising round cemented its run. $IQE has terrible fundamentals now (Net debt £23.5 million) but is probably one of the most critical parts of the supply chain. If they manage to sell their Taiwan operations, wouldn't be surprised if it went up quite a bit just from their inp business. There's £18m convertible notes (which is basically nothing), then there's 120 to 154m new shares (~12% to 15%), which is also kinda nothing relative to current size. On the other hand, others $LITE and Innolight are probably more established. TLDR: $IQE -> seems critical to Western supply chains, $130MC. Net debt, if they sell Taiwan business -> strong re-rating or they might just dilute you anyway. But if the Taiwan business fails to be sold, probably expect to be diluted to oblivion like Wolfspeed. So huge, huge, risk ad do you own research into risks. But $AXTI and $IQE might are personally interesting to me (I do own $IQE).
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澄清供应链映射简化，补充COHR等潜在供应商及谷歌多源采购。
是的，只是想补充一个免责声明：这是对可能供应链的极度简化映射。 $COHR、Eoptolink 或 Fabrinet 很可能也是。在输入端方面，JX/Sumitomo/AXTI 也是。如果你再往上游追溯一级，Vital 也许也是。 $GOOGL 肯定使用许多来源。
英文原文
Yes, just wanted to add a disclaimer: this is an extremely oversimplified mapping of the likely supply chain. $COHR, Eoptolink, or Fabrinet are likely too. Alongside JX/Sumitomo/AXTI on the inp side. Maybe Vital if you go one level higher upstream. $GOOGL definitely uses many sources.
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超大规模云厂商负债投入AI基建，资金流向英伟达等上游供应商。
@LuffyDDK 他们真的在负债 lol 世界上最富有的公司正在为人工智能基础设施建设而负债。 尽管拥有数百亿美元的净利润，从 $AMZN 到 $GOOGL 的公司都大幅增加了资本支出(capex)： 以至于部分公司预计将在 2026 年出现净现金流出。 以下是结果及受益者： 亚马逊 ( $AMZN ) 2025: +460 亿美元 2026 (预估): +110 亿美元 Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025: +803 亿美元 2026 (预估): +130 亿美元 Meta Platforms ( $META ) - 净债务(Net Debt) 2025: +229 亿美元 2026 (预估): -70 亿美元 (预计转为净债务) 微软 ( $MSFT ) 2025: +492 亿美元 2026 (预估): +590 亿美元 甲骨文 ( $ORCL ) 2025: -980 亿美元 (净债务) 2026 (预估): -1150 亿美元 微软似乎处于最安全的位置。虽然亚马逊和谷歌主要依靠运营收入为人工智能基础设施建设提供资金。 然而，巨大的现金流缓冲已消失。甲骨文和 Meta 似乎正在通过负债来推动建设，尽管 $META 实现了惊人的运营收入数字。 现在，资金流向哪里？ 运营收入预测： 1. $NVDA - 美国 1350 亿 -> 1865 亿 -> 2401 亿美元运营收入 2. 三星 - 韩国 ~302 亿 -> ~1700 亿 -> ~2267 亿美元 3. SK 海力士 - 韩国 ~327 亿 -> ~1240 亿 -> ~1610 亿美元 4. $TSM - 台湾 ~622 亿 -> ~863 亿 - ~1033 亿 – 1053 亿美元 5. $AVGO - 美国 ~415 亿 -> ~628 亿-651 亿 - ~847 亿-933 亿美元 当然，这些是基于分析师预测的粗略估计。 然而，从总体趋势来看，这看起来像是一种杠杆式赌注，即人工智能基础设施建设完成后将带来自由现金流(FCF)的分红回报。 但明显的赢家似乎是英伟达、三星、SK 海力士、博通和台积电。 随着超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)中部分公司陷入债务，他们将资产负债表转移给这些供应商，期望从人工智能支出中获得长期投资回报率(ROI)。
英文原文
@LuffyDDK They literally are going into debt lol https://t.co/A4KDf93pYk
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看好$XLU虚值长期期权，因AI电力需求爆发叠加降息周期带来历史性机遇。
如果我要在1年内将10万美元变成100万美元。 我会选择：$XLU 虚值(OTM) 2年期长期期权(LEAPS) 2026年是现代市场历史上首次同时出现： - 利率下降 - AI推理(AI Inference) + 基础设施建设 通过映射分析，$XLU 有潜在约40%的涨幅（虚值期权可能带来1000%+的收益）。 这是我的宏观论点： 1. 降息 当美联储在不引发衰退的情况下降息时，公用事业公司的债务成本降低，机构投资者会将低收益的现金转向公用事业股息。 这会导致估值倍数立即扩张： 1995年：标普公用事业板块(S&P Utilities)在1995年回报+31.3%，1996年再+12.1%——累计回报约47% 2019年中周期降息：结果：$XLU 在该年产生+25.9%的总回报 标准的软着陆降息周期自然映射为25%至30%的基础回报。而我们要进入2026年的新降息周期。 2. 基础设施超级周期资本支出(CapEx) 基础设施资本支出为该板块带来复合盈利增长。继2000年代初之后，公用事业公司进入大规模资本支出周期以现代化老化的电网基础设施。 由于他们不断支出并扩大其受监管的费率基数(rate base)，$XLU 在2004年回报+23.5%，2005年+16.3%，2006年+20.8%，2007年+18.4%。 然而这一次： 2026年8000多亿美元的AI建设支出，使得2004年的电网现代化看起来像零钱一样微不足道。 因此，你有来自#1降息的估值倍数扩张（+15%至+20%），以及来自#2资本支出历史数据的每股收益(EPS)增长（+18%至+20%）。仅从历史教训来看。 但2026年是历史上AI使用带来的最独特时刻。 仅从我自己的模型预测来看，由于AI极端扩张，所有以前的估计可能都是错误的（例如美国能源部/劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的预测）： 超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)资本支出流入（支出）（亚马逊、微软、Meta、谷歌、甲骨文）进入数据中心估算： 2024年：2200亿美元 2025年：3500亿美元 2026年：5500亿美元 2027年：8000亿美元 2028年：1.2万亿美元（4年增长：+445%） 美国数据中心电力使用量： 2024年：190太瓦时(TWh) 2025年：280太瓦时 2026年：430太瓦时 2027年：650太瓦时 2028年：980太瓦时（4年增长：+415%） AI消耗的总美国电力百分比： 2024年：美国电网的4.5% 2025年：6.6% 2026年：8.2-10.2% 2027年：13.4-15.4% 2028年：21.3-23.3% 劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室和美国能源部似乎低估了AI使用量（他们预测到2028年约为12%） 物理电网容量需求： 2024年：18吉瓦(GW) 2025年：35吉瓦 2026年：65吉瓦 2027年：105吉瓦 2028年：160吉瓦 基本上你可以看到2026年到2028年是拐点，而2024-2025年是爬坡期的缓慢年份。 然后是独立公司的“绝望溢价”。因为电网容量已售罄，科技巨头向公用事业公司支付巨额溢价以插队。例如PJM互联电网（弗吉尼亚“数据中心巷”），容量价格从2024年的每兆瓦日28.92美元飙升至2026/2027年令人难以置信的329.17美元。 $VST 或 Constellation 作为独立电力生产商在ETF中占很大权重。 纵观全局，你可以看到从2026年（现在）到2028年的极端扩张，以及用于建设基础设施的极端资本支出，与往年相比。 2026年是现代市场历史上第一次，所有因素同时为枯燥的电网/电力板块发力，其中AI是最大的顺风。 正如埃隆·马斯克所说：“数十亿美元最先进的硬件。闲置黑暗。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为没有足够的电力来运行它们”。 再次强调，2026年由于AI和做市商(MMs)基于历史隐含波动率(IV)（极度平坦~14%-16%）定价虚值看涨期权，是一个绝对的历史异常值。 我们看到AI推理（超出之前的测量范围）以及训练（根据OpenAI今天的报告）的爆发。 所以，地球上最无聊的板块（电力/电网），可能会因为超大规模云服务商/政府对电网改进的支出 -> AI推理/训练的极端电力消耗 -> 降息等因素，成为重大反弹的起点。 这只是我的个人论点，期权伴随风险并放大下行风险。这些也是我自己的预测，不确定是否会高于或低于它们。 但基本上： 2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值。 美国的新瓶颈是电力。 有来自AI的极端需求，极端资本支出，降息： $XLU 看起来是暴露于此的最佳交易。 时间会证明这是否正确。
英文原文
If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year. It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps 2026 is the first time in modern history markets have: - falling interest rates - AI inference + buildout There's a potential ~40% for XLU (1000%+ OTM), from mapping. Here's my macro thesis: 1. Rate Cuts When the Fed cuts rates without a recession, utility debt becomes cheaper, and institutional rotates low-yielding cash to for utility dividends. This causes immediate valuation multiple expansion: 1995: The S&P Utilities sector returned +31.3% in 1995 and another +12.1% in 1996 - ~47% cumulative return 2019 Mid-Cycle Cut: Result: XLU generated a +25.9% total return in that single year Standard soft-landing rate-cut cycle naturally maps to a 25% to 30% baseline return. And we're entering a new rate cut cycle in 2026. 2. The Infrastructure Supercycle Capex Infra CapEx gives the sector compounding earnings growth. Following the early 2000s, utilities entered a massive CapEx cycle to modernize aging grid infrastructure. Because they were constantly spending and expanding their guaranteed rate base, XLU returned +23.5% in 2004, +16.3% in 2005, +20.8% in 2006, and +18.4% in 2007. However this time: The $800B+ AI buildout of 2026 makes the 2004 grid modernization look like pennies. So you have Valuation Multiple Expansion (+15% to +20%), from rate cuts from #1. EPS growth (+18% to +20%) from #2 from capex spend historically. Just from a history lesson. But 2026 is the most unique moment in history from AI usage. Just from my own model projections as all former estimates are likely wrong from extreme AI ramp (eg. DOE/LBNL projections): Hyperscaler CapEx Inflows (Spend) - (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Oracle) into DCs est: 2024: $220 Billion 2025: $350 Billion 2026: $550 Billion 2027: $800 Billion 2028: $1.2 Trillion (Growth: +445% over 4 years) U.S. Data Center Power Usage: 2024: 190 TWh 2025: 280 TWh 2026: 430 TWh 2027: 650 TWh 2028: 980 TWh (Growth: +415% over 4 years) % of Total U.S. Electricity Consumed by AI: 2024: 4.5% of the U.S. grid 2025: 6.6% 2026: 8.2-10.2% 2027: 13.4-15.4% 2028: 21.3-23.3% Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Department of Energy seem off by AI usage (they're projecting ~12% by 2028) Physical Grid Capacity Demand: 2024: 18 GW 2025: 35 GW 2026: 65 GW 2027: 105 GW 2028: 160 GW Basically you can just see 2026 into 2028 being the inflection point whereas 2024-2025 where slower years on the ramp up. Then there's the "Desperation Premium" for independent companies. Because grid capacity is sold out, tech giants are paying massive premiums to utilities to cut the line. eg. PJM Interconnection (Virginia "Data Center Alley"), capacity prices spiked from $28.92 per MW-day in 2024 to an unfathomable $329.17 per MW-day for 2026/2027. $VST or Constellation are a large weighting in the ETF as independent power producers. Across the board, you can see the extreme ramp from 2026 (now) into 2028 compared to previous years, alongside extreme capex going into building the infrastructure. 2026 is the first time in modern market history that every single thing is firing at the same time for the boring grid/power sector with AI as the biggest tailwind. And as Elon quotes it: "Billions of dollars of the most advanced hardware. Sitting dark. Not because the chips won't work. Because there's not enough electricity to run on them". Again 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly due to AI and MMs have priced in historical IV (extremely flat ~14%-16%) for OTM calls. We're seeing an explosion in AI inference (beyond previous measurements) as well as training (per OpenAI report today). So the most boring sector on earth (power/grid), might just be the start of a major rally due to hyperscaler/gov spend into grid improvements -> extreme power consumption from AI inference/training -> rate cuts and others. This is just my personal thesis, options come with risk and magnifies downside too. These are also my own projections, no certainty if they will exceed or be lower than them. But basically: 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly. New bottleneck in the US is power. There's extreme demand from AI, extreme capex, rate cuts: $XLU looks like the best trade for exposure. Time will tell if this is right or not.
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
你听劝了吗，匿名者？- $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： 警告：整个AI行业可能会受制于两家公司的瓶颈： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用磷化铟(InP)制造用于800G/1.6T光收发器的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会瘫痪。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光模块（TPU集群等） - 光收发器（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia未来的共封装光学(CPO)和Intel/Broadcom硅光子学(SiPh)引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友电工(Sumitomo)（估计~30%） - JX日矿（估计10-15%） 就这些。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电工+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HMB)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? - $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO
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$EWY期权IV被低估，杠杆衍生品将推高波动率，看涨期权或受益。
$EWY 看起来即将变得更加波动。 做市商可能没有正确地将跳跃期权隐含波动率(IV)定价，因为 IV 可能会扩张至 55% 以上。 有两个原因源于未实现（但即将到来）的波动性。 - 10 倍杠杆的三星/SK 海力士通过去中心化金融(DeFi) 已经出现，因为它们开始产能爬坡。 如果规模变得很大，这会在期货（如 $EWY）的清算和对冲上产生大量的未实现波动性。 $EWY 由一半的 SK 海力士/三星组成，而韩国指数本身已经非常波动。 - 三星和 SK 海力士的 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF 即将到来 2026 年 1 月，韩国监管机构正式宣布允许国内 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF。 同样，这增加了未实现的波动性。 但就目前的期权 IV 定价而言，$EWY 的波动幅度相当极端。 如果非要打个比方，它的百分比波动范围肯定大于 $MRVL（IV 为 55-56%，而 $EWY 仍为 41%）。 三星的对应物可能是 $MU（约 70%），SK 海力士更接近 $SNDK（91%），但可能在 70-80% 范围内。 而且……韩国指数基本上就是 SK 海力士和三星。 随着三星/SK 海力士开始从存储超级周期中重新评级，这种波动性可能会成为新常态。但做市商可能仍然在使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH) 模型或基于长期平均值（当时指数完全平坦）的波动率预测投影。 来自 10 倍杠杆衍生品的数量将仅仅为这些个股的对手方和做市商创造更多的对冲/波动性 -> 这会滞后地反映在 $EWY 的定价中。 简而言之：随着做市商未能正确定价 IV 和未实现波动性，$EWY 看涨期权可能会从 Vega 扩张中受益。
英文原文
$EWY looks like it's about to get more volatile. Market makers might not be pricing in leap option IV correctly as IV may expand past 55%. Two reasons due to unrealized (but upcoming) volatility. - 10X leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix through Defi are here as they begin ramp-up. This creates a great amount of unrealized volatility from liquidations and hedging on futures like $EWY if this ends up becoming large. $EWY is half Sk Hynix / Samsung, and the South Korean index is already really volatile. - 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs for Samsung and SK Hynix are coming In January 2026, South Korean regulators officially announced they will permit domestic 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs. Again, this just adds to unrealized volatility. But as it stands right now regarding option IV pricing. $EWY moves pretty extreme amounts. If I had to give a comparison, it definitely moves in greater % ranges than $MRVL, which sits at 55-56% IV (while $EWY is 41% still). Samsung's equivalent is probably $MU (70%-ish), Sk Hynix is closer to $SNDK (91%) but likely in 70-80% range. And... South Korea's index is basically just Sk Hynix and Samsung. This volatility would likely be the new norm as Samsung/SK Hynix begin their re-rating from the memory supercycle. But MMs are still probably using garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages (where index was completely flat) And the amount of leveraged derivatives from 10x will just create more hedging/volatility on these individual stocks from counterparties and market makers -> that gets priced in late to $EWY. TLDR: $EWY calls likely benefit from vega expansion as MMs aren't pricing in IV and unrealized volatility correctly.
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建议做多$XLU LEAPS，看好AI电力需求激增及降息利好。
交易思路：做多虚值(OTM) $XLU LEAPS（2年期，2027年12月/2028年1月到期）。 受AI驱动，这感觉像是一次千载难逢的做多机会。 $XLU 集中持有 $VST / $CEG 等电力公司。 两个原因： 1. AI数据中心(DC)电力使用带来的范式转变。 2. 基于历史平均水平（自2000年代以来持平）的低隐含波动率(IV)（约14%）。 AI的电力消耗是天文数字。 这一点怎么强调都不为过。 历史上从未有过数据中心消耗如此多吉瓦(GW)电力的情况，尤其是当它们需要核反应堆的输出来训练大语言模型(LLMs)时。 这迫使 $META、$AMZN、$GOOGL 等公司签署多年协议以尽可能多地消耗电力。然而，电力仍然供不应求。 -> 因此，数万亿美元可能会涌入电网升级。 通常利率会损害该板块，但我们将进入更多降息周期，这使得该板块成为更好的做多标的。 OpenAI致国会的信恳请美国投资能源以与中国竞争。 因此，由于以下原因，这感觉像是一次十年一遇的做多机会： - AI消耗所有可用电力带来的范式转变 - 为与中国竞争而进行的数万亿美元电网升级 - 降息 以及基于历史平均水平的低隐含波动率定价。
英文原文
Trade Idea: Long OTM $XLU leaps (2 years, Dec 2027/Jan 2028). This feels like once-a-generation long due to AI. XLU has concentration in $VST / $CEG power companies. Two reasons: 1. Paradigm shift due to AI DC electricity usage. 2. Low option IV (~14%) based on historical averages (flat since 2000s). AI power usage is astronomical. This cannot be understated. Never before in history have DCs use up this much GWs in power, especially when they require outputs of nuclear reactors for training LLMs. This forces $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and others to sign multi-year agreements to consume as much power as possible. And yet they still don't have enough. -> So, trillions would likely be poured into grid upgrades. Usually interest rates hurt the sector but we're going into more rate cuts, so it makes the sector a much better long. OpenAI's letter to congress pleaded the US to invest in energy as well to compete vs. China. So, this feels like a once-a-decade type long due to: - paradigm shift eating up any available power from AI - trillions in grid upgrades to compete vs. China - rate cuts. And low IV pricing from historical averages.
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作者改变观点，因看好量子计算前景及INFQ在量子传感的应用而买入。
如果你读过我之前的帖子，你会知道我从一开始就一直在唱空 $IONQ、$RGTI 和 $QBTS。然而，仅从行业讨论来看，我接触到的所有人都知道这一天终将到来。感觉这只是时间问题，无论是2年还是5年。我一直在关注 $GOOGL Willow 和其他突破，但之前没有发现值得冒险的纯量子计算标的。不过，我决定买入 $INFQ。至于“应用”，主要涉及国家安全，商业化感觉不强。例如破解加密，因此政府有巨大动力资助该领域的研究。但你可以看到 $INFQ 在量子传感方面的其他应用。
英文原文
If you've read my previous posts, I've been bear posting $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS since the dawn of time. However, just from industry discussions, everyone I've talked to seems to know it's coming. It's feels like a matter of time, whether it's 2 years or 5. I've been watching $GOOGL Willow and other breakthroughs, but there hasn't been any pure play exposure I thought it was worth to take the risk on. But decided to pull the trigger with $INFQ. As for "applications" it's largely national security and doesn't feel very commercial. Eg. breaking encryption, so Governments have a huge incentive to fund research into this area. But you can see other applications with $INFQ + quantum sensing.
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利用韩国指数期权定价错误，做多$EWY看涨期权以捕捉存储周期波动率扩张。
指数下跌-2.46%。整个期权链全线飘红+13-20%。 这就是当你发现做市商在期权链中存在定价错误时会发生的情况。 话虽如此，隐含波动率(IV)回升至更合理的38-39%，但个别组件（SK海力士、三星）的波动率可能仍有几个百分点的偏差。 （引用内容翻译）： 我发布在“淋浴思考”频道的交易思路： 韩国指数波动率套利并利用布莱克-斯科尔斯模型。 $EWY 看涨期权似乎存在定价错误。 这是贝莱德旗下的韩国指数，主要由存储芯片（三星电子、SK海力士）构成。 尽管该指数被定价为普通指数的隐含波动率，但个股每日波动2-5%+，且1年涨幅达136.25%。 三星波动剧烈。SK海力士波动剧烈（例如预估65%-80%）。 但通过指数组合后的定价远低于低贝塔值的 $GOOGL (37.33%) 和 $AMZN (39.12%)，隐含波动率仅约32%。 我观察 $EWY 一段时间，它确实看起来波动很大。 至于定价，我猜测做市商(MM)基于历史平均值（5-10年）定价隐含波动率，当时韩国指数完全持平。他们预期两年后的看涨期权会回归均值。 但这种波动率应成为新常态，因为市场正在定价新的存储超级周期（例如 $TSM 从30% IV升至46.2% IV）。 看涨期权将从三星+SK海力士带动指数上涨中受益。 主要好处是你能获得 $KORU 无法提供的 Vega 扩张。 你也无法像美国个股那样获得这种期权做市商的压盘效应，因为这是韩国国家指数且期限较长。 简而言之：个别组件SK海力士+三星具有高波动性。 它们基本占指数的一半，但指数期权以低波动率定价，或许是因为基于过去5-10年的历史数据。 看涨期权将从未正确定价的 Vega 扩张中受益，因为做市商的前瞻波动率估计过于锚定于历史已实现波动率，而过去5-10年 $EWY 的波动率很低。
英文原文
Index down -2.46%. The entire option chain green +13-20%. This is what happens when when you find mispricing in option chains by market makers. That being said it’s a more respectable 38-39% IV, but maybe few percent off (SK Hynix, Samsung) individual components volatility still.
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科技巨头负债投入AI基建，资金流向英伟达等上游供应商。
世界上最富有的公司正在为AI基础设施建设而负债。 尽管拥有数千亿美元的净利润，从 $AMZN 到 $GOOGL 的公司都大幅增加了资本支出(capex)： 以至于部分公司预计将在2026年出现净现金为负的情况。 以下是结果及受益者： 亚马逊 ( $AMZN ) 2025年：+$460亿 2026年（预估）：+$110亿 Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025年：+$803亿 2026年（预估）：+$130亿 Meta Platforms ( $META ) - 净债务(Net Debt) 2025年：+$229亿 2026年（预估）：-$70亿（预计转为净债务状态） 微软 ( $MSFT ) 2025年：+$492亿 2026年（预估）：+$590亿 甲骨文 ( $ORCL ) 2025年：-$980亿（净债务） 2026年（预估）：-$1150亿 微软似乎处于最安全的位置。虽然亚马逊和谷歌主要依靠运营收入来资助AI基础设施建设。 然而，那巨大的现金流缓冲已经消失。甲骨文和Meta似乎正在通过负债来推动建设，尽管 $META 实现了惊人的运营收入数字。 现在，资金流向了哪里？ 运营收入预测： 1. $NVDA - 美国 $1350亿 -> $1865亿 -> $2401亿 运营收入 2. 三星 - 韩国 ~$302亿 -> ~$1700亿 -> ~$2267亿 3. SK海力士 - 韩国 ~$327亿 -> ~$1240亿 -> ~$1610亿 4. $TSM - 台湾 ~$622亿 -> ~$863亿 - ~$1033亿 – $1053亿 5. $AVGO - 美国 ~$415亿 -> ~$628亿-$651亿 - ~$847亿-$933亿 当然，这些是基于分析师预测的粗略估计。 然而，从总体趋势来看，这看起来像是一种杠杆式赌注，即AI基础设施建设完成后将带来自由现金流(FCF)的红利。 但明显的赢家似乎是英伟达、三星、SK海力士、博通和台积电。 随着超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)中部分公司陷入债务，它们将资产负债表转移给这些供应商，期望从AI支出中获得长期投资回报率(ROI)。
英文原文
The richest companies in the world are going into debt for the AI buildout. Despite hundreds of billions in net income, companies from $AMZN to $GOOGL have increased capex so much: That some are projected to be net negative cash in 2026. Here are the results and who profits: Amazon ( $AMZN ) 2025: +$46.0 billion 2026 (Est): +$11.0 billion Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025: +$80.3 billion 2026 (Est): +$13.0 billion Meta Platforms ( $META ) - Net Debt 2025: +$22.9 billion 2026 (Est): -$7.0 billion (Expected to swing into Net Debt) Microsoft ( $MSFT ) 2025: +$49.2 billion 2026 (Est): +$59.0 billion Oracle ( $ORCL ) 2025: -$98.0 billion (Net Debt) 2026 (Est): -$115.0 billion Microsoft appears to be in the safest position. While Amazon and Google have been largely funding the AI buildout with operating income. However, that large cashflow buffer has vanished. Oracle and Meta appear to be in debt to fuel the buildout, despite $META achieving staggering operating income numbers. Now, where does the money flow into? Operating Income Projections: 1. $NVDA - USA $135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion Operating Income 2. Samsung - Korea ~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion 3. SK Hynix - Korea ~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion 4. $TSM - Taiwan ~$62.2B -> ~$86.3B - ~$103.3B – $105.3 Billion 5. $AVGO - America ~$41.5B -> ~$62.8B-$65.1B - ~$84.7B-$93.3B Of course, these are rough estimates based on analyst projections. However, from the general trend, this looks like a leveraged bet that the AI buildout will pay off dividends in FCF after they're finished. But the clear winners appear to be Nvidia, Samsung, SK Hynix, Broadcom, and TSMC. This comes as hyperscalers, with some going into debt, transfer over their balance sheets to them, expecting a long term ROI from their AI spend.
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AI 驱动下，三星和海力士营业利润增速惊人，有望在 2027 年追平或超越美股巨头。
全球最盈利公司排名（Mag 7 vs. 世界） 2025->2026->2027 年营业利润(Operating Income)预测。 #1: $NVDA (美国, 4.4T 市值) 🇺🇸 ~1350 亿 -> 1865 亿 -> 2401 亿美元 #2 三星电子 (韩国, 8200 亿市值) 🇰🇷 ~302 亿 -> ~1700 亿 -> ~2267 亿美元 #3 $MSFT (美国, 2.9T 市值) ~1285 亿 -> 1530 亿 -> 1815 亿美元 #4 $GOOGL (美国, 3.7T 市值) ~1290 亿 -> 1420 亿 -> 1730 亿美元 #4 海力士 (韩国, 4100 亿市值) ~327 亿 -> ~1240 亿 -> ~1610 亿美元 #5 $APPL (美国, 3.76T 市值) 1331 亿 -> 1460 亿 -> 1605 亿美元 #6 $AMZN (美国, 2.13T 市值) 800 亿 -> 1050 亿 -> 1365 亿美元 #7 $Meta (美国, 1.62T 市值) 833 亿 -> 970 亿 -> 1215 亿美元 #8 $TSLA (美国, 1.31T 市值) 44 亿 -> 80 亿 -> 240 亿美元 韩国 8200 亿市值的三星电子预计将在 2027 年在营业利润上追平 $NVDA。 同时，海力士预计将在 2027 年在营业利润上超越 $APPL 和 $AMZN。 主要结论是，由于人工智能(AI)的加速部署，美国超大规模云服务商和韩国股票的增长令人惊叹。
英文原文
Global ranking of the most profitable companies in the world (Mag 7 vs. World) Projections for 2025->2026->2027 (Operating Income). #1: $NVDA (USA, 4.4T MC) 🇺🇸 ~$135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion #2: Samsung Electronics (Korea, $820B MC) 🇰🇷 ~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion #3 $MSFT (USA, $2.9T MC) ~$128.5B -> 153.0B -> $181.5 Billion #4 $GOOGL (USA, $3.7T MC) ~$129.0B -> $142.0B -> $173.0B #4 Sk Hynix (Korea, $410B MC) ~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion #5 $APPL (USA, $3.76T MC) $133.1B -> $146.0B -> $160.5B #6 $AMZN (USA, $2.13T MC) $80.0B -> $105.0B -> $136.5B #7 $Meta (USA, $1.62T MC) $83.3 -> $97.0B -> $121.5B #8 $TSLA (USA, $1.31T MC) $4.4B -> $8.0B -> $24.0B Samsung Electronics, a $820B company in Korea is projected to catch up to $NVDA in 2027 in operating income. Meanwhile Sk Hynix is projected to overtake both $APPL and $AMZN in operating income in 2027. The main takeaway is that the growth of both US hyperscalers and South Korean equities is astounding due to Artificial Intelligence ramp.
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利用$EWY期权定价错误，做多看涨期权以捕捉存储超级周期带来的维加扩张。
我发布在“淋浴思考”频道的交易思路： 韩国指数波动率套利，并利用布莱克-斯科尔斯模型(Black-Scholes models)。 $EWY 的看涨期权似乎定价错误。 这是贝莱德(Blackrock)的韩国指数，主要由存储芯片（三星电子、SK海力士）构成。 该指数每日波动2-5%以上，尽管隐含波动率(IV)定价像普通指数，但过去一年仍上涨了136.25%。 三星波动大。SK海力士波动也大（例如估算65%-80%）。 但通过指数组合后的定价远低于低贝塔值的 $GOOGL (37.33%) 和 $AMZN (39.12%)，约为32%的IV。 我观察 $EWY 一段时间，它确实看起来很波动。 至于定价，我猜测做市商(MMs)基于历史平均值（5-10年）定价IV，当时韩国指数完全持平。他们预期两年后的看涨期权会均值回归。 但这种波动应成为新常态，因为市场正在定价新的存储超级周期（例如 $TSM 从30% IV升至46.2% IV）。 看涨期权将从三星+SK海力士带动指数中受益。 主要好处是你无法从 $KORU 获得的维加(Vega)扩张。 你也无法像美国个股那样获得期权做市商的压盘效应，因为这是韩国的国家指数且期限较长。 简而言之：个别成分股SK海力士+三星具有高波动性。 它们基本上占指数的一半，但指数期权以低波动性定价，可能是因为基于5-10年的历史数据。 看涨期权将从维加扩张中受益，因为做市商的前瞻性波动率估算过于锚定于历史已实现波动率，而过去5-10年 $EWY 的历史波动率较低。
英文原文
Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel: Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models. $EWY long options seem mispriced. This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix). The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV. Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est). But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV. I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile. As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean. But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV). Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index. And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU. You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term. TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile. They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data. Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years
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韩系存储巨头盈利或超美科技巨头，AI内存短缺或成常态，建议关注亚裔半导体股。
这些数据令人震惊： 预计三星和SK海力士将在2027年成为全球最盈利的公司。 它们的预测值超过了$APPL和$GOOGL，这两家公司的营业利润均约为4万亿美元级别。 作为参考，三星的估值约为8200亿美元，SK海力士的估值约为4100亿美元。 这意味着到2027年，一家估值约4100亿美元的SK海力士，其盈利能力将超过$GOOGL（3.7万亿美元）。 根据摩根士丹利此前的估算，SK海力士和三星预计将带来： 合计约3877亿美元的营业利润。 美国两家最盈利的公司$APPL和$GOOGL在2025年的合计营业利润为2630亿美元。（谷歌1290-1320亿美元，苹果1331亿美元） 2027年预测： 三星电子：约2267亿美元 SK海力士：约1610亿美元 2027年预测： 苹果：约1560-1650亿美元 谷歌：约1680-1780亿美元 较小的韩国股票在盈利能力上超过数万亿美元美国超大规模云服务商的统计数据令人震惊。 一个真正有趣的观点是，一家4100亿美元的公司其盈利能力超过了4万亿美元以上的超大规模云服务商。 但市场正在定价的更大问题是，内存短缺是暂时的，还是它们会成为AI基础设施建设中像GPU一样必要的“石油”。 如果你对这个问题的回答是“很可能”，那么获得韩国、日本或台湾股票的敞口可能是一个不错的选择。
英文原文
These numbers are staggering: Samsung and SK Hynix are projected to become the most profitable companies in the world by 2027. Their projections exceed $APPL and $GOOGL, both ~$4T companies in operating profit. For reference, Samsung is valued at ~$820B and SK Hynix is valued at ~$410B. That would make a ~$410B company in SK Hynix more profitable than $GOOGL ($3.7T) in 2027. By Morgan Stanley estimates earlier, SK Hynix and Samsung are est. to bring in: ~$387.7 Billion USD combined operating income. America’s two most profitable companies $APPL and $GOOGL combined brought in $263 Billion USD for 2025. (Google $129-132B, Apple $133.1B) 2027 est. Samsung Electronics: ~$226.7 Billion Sk Hynix: ~$161.0 Billion 2027 est: Apple: ~$156B-$165B Google: ~$168B-178B The statistics of smaller Korean equities exceeding multi trillion dollar US hyperscalers in profitability is staggering. It’s a genuinely interesting point, that a $410B company exceeds $4T+ hyperscalers in profitability. But the bigger question markets are pricing in is if the memory shortage is ephemeral, or if they become a necessary “Oil” like GPUs for the AI buildout. If your answer to that is “likely, might be good to get exposure to Korean, Japanese, or Taiwanese equities.
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七巨头盈利强劲支撑科技股，但加密市场低迷警示短期流动性风险。
我认为“七巨头”(Mag7)的盈利过于强劲，不足以引发全面修正。$META 指引营收增长约 30%。$GOOGL 庞大的 1800 亿美元资本支出由其 2025 年超 1320 亿美元的营业利润资助。这些资金流入 AI、存储和半导体领域，为其提供了底部支撑（例如，存储占 AI 集群物料清单(BOM)的很大比例）。即使是其他板块的中盘股如 $RDDT，在 35% 的净利率转化为净利润后，远期市盈率(Forward P/E)估值也接近 26-30 倍，营收同比增长 70% 且远期增长超 50%。增长目前看来仍可持续，且软件等其他板块大幅折价。但比特币/以太坊尚未恢复通常是短期流动性问题的最佳“煤矿金丝雀”(canary in the coal mine)。我预计中期选举前会出现更广泛的复苏。
英文原文
IMO Mag7 earnings are too strong for a full-blown correction. $META projecting guided ~30% revenue growth. $GOOGL's enormous $180B capex spend is funded by it's $132B+ operating income from 2025. All those funds trickle down into AI, memory, semis and puts a floor on them (eg. memory is a huge percentage of BOM for AI clusters). Even mid cap in other segments like $RDDT, is close to ~26-30 forward P/E estimates after 35% of revenue as net income -> 70% Y/Y revenue growth and 50%+ forward. Growth still looks sustainable right now, and other segments like software are heavily discounted. But the fact Bitcoin/Ethereum is not recovering yet is usually the best canary in the coal mine for short term liquidity issues. I'd expect a broader recovery going forward to midterms.
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LPTH是国防锗瓶颈，短期受板块拖累，长期受益于供应链转移。
$LPTH 主要是国防领域的锗瓶颈。它似乎更多是从中国供应链向美国黑钻（Black Diamond）过渡的长期受益者。 它在算法上与国防板块挂钩（近期因缺乏催化剂，从 $ONDS 到 $AVAV 均下跌）。如果美国入侵伊朗，该交易可能会再次火热。 不太可能看到像 $GOOGL 和 $AMZN 资本支出带来的半导体供应链瓶颈那样巨大的短期飙升。或者像 $AXTI 因光子学应用可能看到的瓶颈+涨价。 但从 Andruil、$NOC、$ONDS 等来看，长期应有增量收入。
英文原文
$LPTH is germanium bottleneck mainly for defense. It seems more of a long term beneficiary from transition from China supply chains to US black diamond. And it’s algorithmically tied to defense sector (which is down recently, from $ONDS to $AVAV due to a lack of catalysts). If US invades Iran the trade is probably going to be hot again. Not likely going to see that massive short term spike that semi supply chain bottlenecks do from the $GOOGL and $AMZN capex spend. Or bottleneck + price hikes that $AXTI might see from photonics usage. But long term from Andruil, $NOC, $ONDS and others should be incremental revenue
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AXTI因铟价飙升及垂直整合优势，有望成光子学核心瓶颈并重估。
$AXTI - 7N高纯度铟价格突破1000美元，且过去三个月呈抛物线式上涨。 这是价格上涨的衍生反映。 有两个细微差别： 1. 这是当地上海金属市场(SMM)的定价（中国控制着70%以上的供应链）。 从$GOOGL到META的超大规模云服务商可能正在为此支付高额溢价（转嫁给$LITE或其他公司）。 2. 这是磷化铟(InP)衬底的原料。 InP衬底 = $AXTI 和住友电工(Sumitomo)。 原料 = $AXTI 和 Vital。 前驱体价格上涨会损害住友电工的底线 -> $LITE / $COHR -> 下游。 但AXT作为两个不同层面的瓶颈，在原料/精炼层面实现垂直整合，因此两次受益。 正如$GOOGL的财报所示，随着其1800多亿美元的资本支出，光子学的建设即将呈抛物线式增长。而且就在现在。 我对$AXTI的论点是 -> 像内存公司（如$SNDK、$MU、SK海力士）一样涨价，并作为光子学建设的核心瓶颈获得重估。 不再是三大巨头，而是两家（AXT/住友）。随着日本面临出口管制带来的上游材料问题，最终可能只剩一家。 与内存产品相比，价格上涨的可见度较低。 但我们可以在SMM上的7N铟等衍生品中看到这种潜在反映。
英文原文
$AXTI - 7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months. This is a derivative reflection of price hikes. There's two nuances: 1. This is local SMM pricing (China controls 70%+ of the supply chain). Hyperscalers from $GOOGL to META are probably paying large premiums for this (to pass to $LITE or others). 2. This is feedstock to InP substrates. InP substrates = $AXTI and Sumitomo. Feedstock = $AXTI and Vital. Increases in precursor prices hurts the bottom line of Sumitomo -> $LITE / $COHR -> downstream. But AXT benefits both times as a bottleneck of two different layers, since they are vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level. As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend. And now. My thesis with $AXTI is -> price hikes like memory companies (eg. $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix) and get re-rated as the central chokepoint for photonics buildout. Instead of the big three, you have 2 (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time, as Japan faces issues with upstream materials from export controls. There's less visibility over price hikes compared to memory products. But we can see this potentially reflected in derviatve like 7N indium on SMM.
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看好4D AI趋势，建仓$AEVA作为中游瓶颈的投机性敞口。
说到像 $AXTI 这样的其他瓶颈环节。 我一直在研究 4D AI。 与行业内部人士的交谈让我相信，继 $NVDA 黄仁勋的会议后，物理 AI 和人形机器人的“世界模型(World Models)”是一个即将到来的趋势。 因此我建仓了从事 4D 激光雷达(4D LiDAR)的 $AEVA。 根据我的研究，这看起来是该趋势中最清晰的功能性中游瓶颈敞口？ 除非有人想提及其他标的。 还有像 $AMBA、$U（是的，是游戏软件）、$TER 和 $OUST 这样的公司，但它们体量较大，且敞口不够清晰。 话虽如此，这仍是一个新领域，所以我仍在进行研究。此外，基本面尚不稳定，因此这更多是对行业增长的创投型押注。 披露：我仅持有 $AEVA 的多头头寸，作为对 4D AI 及物理 AI 世界模型的投机性敞口。
英文原文
Speaking of other bottlenecks like $AXTI. I’ve been looking into 4D AI. Convos with industry insiders leads me to believe it’s an upcoming trend eg. “World Models” for physical AI and humanoids post $NVDA Jensen’s conference. So took positions into $AEVA which is 4D LiDAR. Looks like the clearest functional midstream bottleneck exposure to the trend, from my research? Unless someone has others they’d like to mention. There’s stuff like $AMBA, $U (yes the games software), $TER, and $OUST but they’re larger companies without the clearest exposure. That being said it’s still a new space so still doing research. Also, fundamentals are shaky, so this is more of a venture bet for the industry growth. Disclosure: I have long shares only of $AEVA, as speculative exposure to 4D AI + World Models for physical AI.
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$AXTI 一周大涨63%，市场开始定价上游供应链瓶颈。
$AXTI 一周上涨 63.29%，创年度新高。 受 $GOOGL 财报影响，光子学(Photonics)板块迎来疯狂反弹。 市场终于开始对上游瓶颈进行定价。
英文原文
$AXTI up 63.29% in 1 week to new yearly highs. What a crazy photonics rally off $GOOGL earnings. Markets are finally pricing in upstream bottlenecks. https://t.co/YdEOofJWN8
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小资金应集中投资高弹性标的，大资金则需降低风险。
微妙。通常“集中创造财富，分散保全财富”这句老话是成立的。 我大体同意，除非你分散投资的所有标的都是高贝塔且高度相关的。我不确定 $IBIT 的复苏或 $SNDK 哪个涨得更快，所以我选择多匹马下注，并给它们装上 $RKLB 这样的火箭助推器。 但通常来说，是的，投资组合越小，集中度应该越高。如果你有 $10k，也许只选2-3个你最看好的，比如 $SNDK 或 $POET（但显然风险稍大）。 用 $10k 去稳健复利 $GOOGL 或进行分散投资，不会改变你的生活（你打工赚得更多）。但一般来说，随着投资组合规模的增长，你需要承担的风险就越小。
英文原文
Nuanced. So typically concentration builds wealth and diversification preserves it rings true. I generally agree unless all your diversified picks are high beta and correlated. I'm just not sure if $IBIT recovery or $SNDK would go up faster so I bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them. But usually, yes, the smaller the portfolio is, the more concentration your portfolio should be. If you have $10k, maybe just pick 2-3 of your favorites like $SNDK or $POET (but obviously a tad more risky). Safe compounding $GOOGL or diversifying with those amounts won't change your life (you would get more working a job). But generally the more your portfolio goes up the less risk you need to take.
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对比法美AI投入，指出法国资金规模远不及美巨头。
@ticker_thoughts 我确实关注了。法国2030年3000万欧元的投入，与$GOOGL和$AMZN约3800亿美元的年度资本支出(capex)相比，对法国AI领域的影响肯定微乎其微。他们并没有打破刻板印象。https://t.co/qXdcTRvmVd
英文原文
@ticker_thoughts I did. That whole 30M euros for 2030 is definitely going to make a large impact on France’s AI sector compared to $GOOGL and $AMZN ~$380B 1 year capex spend. They’re not really breaking stereotypes here. https://t.co/qXdcTRvmVd
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AXTI因InP供应链瓶颈逻辑6周涨60%，成AI光子学关键瓶颈标的。
自我发布关于 $AXTI 的初始帖子以来，已经过去了6周。 它的股价又上涨了60%。 几乎没有人在这上面讨论这只市值仅7亿美元的小盘股。 尤其是从磷化铟(InP)供应链与光子学的角度。 现在它已成为一家14亿美元的公司，进入了机构和政府的视野。 在此期间： - 中国出口管制禁止了其竞争对手的前体材料 - 7N级磷化铟(InP)价格周周创历史新高 - 他们从Northland筹集了1亿美元以翻倍产能 - $LITE 业绩大超预期，预计光学需求将超过供应 - 所有超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出均超出预期 - 特朗普签署行政令，从美国境内的外国拥有公司手中接管磷化铟(InP)供应链。 这6周里，我预计光子学在未来两年及以后将增长最快。 每只股票都有波动性（这只股票每天上下波动20%+），所以在入场交易前，重要的是建立你自己的信念。 但 $AXTI 是我从7亿美元微小市值开始的最有趣的瓶颈多头标的之一。
英文原文
It’s been 6 weeks since I made the initial $AXTI post. It’s now up another 60%. Almost nobody talked about this tiny $700M stock on X. Especially not from angles of InP supply chains with photonics. And now it’s a $1.4B company on institution and gov radars. Since then: - China export control banned precursors to their competitors - 7n InP prices hit all time highs week after week - They raised $100M from Northland to double their capacity - $LITE blows out earnings with expectations of optical demand outstripping supply - Every hyperscaler blew out expectations of capex - Trump signed executive orders to seize InP supply chains from foreign owned companies in the US. It’s been 6 weeks. And I expect photonics to ramp up the most over the next two years onwards. Every stock has volatility (this one moves 20%+ up and down daily) so it’s important to develop conviction by yourself before entering a trade. But $AXTI is of my most interesting bottleneck longs starting from a tiny $700M MC.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出激增导致GPU供应紧张，利好新云服务商。
黄仁勋在CNBC表示：“六年前销售的GPU价格正在上涨。” GPU折旧曾是$NBIS、$IREN和$CRWV最大的担忧。 但现在，它们拥有： - 超大规模云厂商资本支出增加带来的顺风 - 全面的需求增长 - GPU折旧担忧缓解。 所有顺风同时利好新云服务商(Neoclouds)。 （引用内容：根据3Fourteen Research：2月份主要云服务的GPU可用性大幅下降。随着$META、$AMZN、$GOOGL大幅增加基础设施资本支出，主要赢家是新云服务商：$IREN、$NBIS和$CRWV是三家提供AI云服务的企业。随着Opus 4.6等新AI模型的推出，可能出现新一轮需求冲击。从B200等新一代到旧型号，需求全面增长。这是产能限制累积效应的可视化体现。）
英文原文
Jensen Huang on CNBC: "GPUs sold six years ago are increasing in price." GPU depreciation was the largest concern for $NBIS, $IREN, and $CRWV. But now, they have: - Tailwinds from increased capex spend across hyperscalers - Increased demand across the board - GPU depreciation fears eased. Every tailwind just hit at once for Neoclouds.
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云厂商GPU供应紧缺，Neoclouds因需求冲击受益。
根据3Fourteen Research的数据：2月份主要云服务提供商的GPU可用性大幅下降。 与此同时，$META、$AMZN和$GOOGL大幅增加了基础设施资本支出。 主要的受益者是Neoclouds（新型云服务商）： $IREN、$NBIS和$CRWV是拥有AI云服务业务的三家。 随着Opus 4.6等新AI模型的发布，很可能出现了一波新的需求冲击。 这种需求增长是全方位的，涵盖了B200等新一代芯片以及旧型号。 这是产能限制累积效应的直观体现。
英文原文
According to 3Fourteen Research: GPU availability across major cloud services have dropped immensely in Feb. This comes as $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL have increased infrastructure capex spend immensely. The major victors, Neoclouds: $IREN, $NBIS, and $CRWV are the three with AI cloud offerings. There's likely been a new wave of demand shock with new AI models coming out from Opus 4.6 and others. And the demand increase is across the board with newer gens like B200, and older models. This is the cumulative effect of capacity constraints, now visualized.
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超大规模云厂商AI资本支出激增，利好上游半导体供应链，建议坚守基本面做多。
市场正遭受AI资本支出(AI capex)冲击的洗礼。 这实质上是超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)与外国之间的一场AI军备竞赛。 2025年至2026年间，资本支出(capex)增长如下： $GOOGL：从910亿-930亿美元增至1750亿-1850亿美元 $AMZN：从1250亿美元增至约2000亿美元 $META：从720亿美元增至1150亿-1350亿美元 $MSFT：从1100亿美元增至1500亿美元 $TSLA：从85亿美元增至200亿美元以上 当谷歌表示其年度支出（用于数据中心、TPU、基础设施）从去年的920亿美元激增至1850亿美元时，这一规模是巨大的。 $AMZN等公司的资本支出预测涵盖机器人到太空领域，情况不一，但同一家内存公司和半导体公司实际上能从中双重受益。 市场可能不欣赏$GOOGL如此巨大的支出，但上游AI供应链 certainly 乐见其成。 尤其是那些最明显受益的公司，例如： 专用集成电路(ASICs)：$AVGO（谷歌TPU、Meta MTIA等） 内存：SK海力士、三星、美光 $TSM（没有台积电你造不出“上帝”） $NVDA（训练） 每个建设项目中都有隐藏的受益者（例如$MSFT带动的$AAOI，$MRVL带动的$POET，$GOOGL带动的$LITE）。但有时，像内存或$TSM这样显而易见的“傻瓜式”标的反而就是最好的选择。 判断AI交易是否持续的最大信号是超大规模云服务商的支出： 而他们刚刚彻底超出了所有预期。 在AI建设浪潮中保持做多，基本面比宏观环境和短期流动性冲击更重要。
英文原文
Markets have been hit with an AI capex shock. This is effectively an AI arms race between hyperscalers and foreign nations. Between 2025 to 2026, capex has increased from: $GOOGL: $91B - $93B to $175B – $185B $AMZN: $125B to ~$200B $META: $72B to $115B-$135B $MSFT: $110B to $150B $TSLA: $8.5B to $20B+ When Google says they are spending $185 Billion in 1 year (on DCs, TPUs, infrastructure), from $92B the previous year, that is enormous. Capex projections like $AMZN are mixed from robotics to space, but the same memory companies and semiconductors actually benefit twice. Markets might not appreciate $GOOGL spending that much but AI supply chains upstream certainly do. Especially the most obvious ones that benefit from most such as: ASICs: $AVGO (Google TPUs, Meta MTIA, etc.) Memory: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron $TSM (You cannot build God without TSM) $NVDA (training) There's hidden beneficiaries in each buildout (eg. $AAOI with $MSFT to $POET with $MRVL, $LITE with $GOOGL). But sometimes, the braindead obvious plays like memory or $TSM are are just the best. The biggest signal of whether the AI trade continues is hyperscaler spending: And they just blew all expectations out of the room. Stay long in the AI buildout, fundamentals matter more than macro and short term liquidity shock.
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博主感叹Gemini让日语学习变简单。
@beauty_oe 没错！多亏了 $GOOGL 的 Gemini，学习日语变得非常简单。
英文原文
@beauty_oe ですよね！$GOOGL のGeminiのおかげで、日本語の勉強がすごく簡単になります。
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比特币作为风险管理工具，及特斯拉垂直整合对VPG的供应链风险。
@Bonek2801 出于风险管理目的。我宁愿在约 7 万美元价位持有 50% 的比特币，也不愿持有现金以降低波动性。此外，$VPG 的下行风险在于 $TSLA 自行制造传感器并实现垂直整合，从而将其排除在供应链之外。$GOOGL 与 $LITE 在光学共封装(CPO)方面的看空逻辑也类似。
英文原文
@Bonek2801 Risk management purposes. I’d rather hold 50% in Bitcoin around $70K than sit on cash to lower volatility. Also the downside risk of $VPG is $TSLA creating their own sensors and vertically integrating it away. Similar bear case with $GOOGL and OCS with $LITE though.
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Google和Meta用自有现金流投入AI基建，优于短期回购，长期价值更高。
对于那些担心 $GOOGL 和 $META “AI资本支出(AI Capex)”的人。Google使用其自有经营现金流($1800亿)为TPU、GCP和数据中心的数据中心建设提供资金是积极的。他们在2025年产生了约$1650亿的现金流。看看 $PYPL 发生了什么，当你只关注通过回购带来的短期股价时。Paypal字面上又发行了$60亿的回购，而股价下跌了20%。像 $META 这样在万亿美元估值下加速收入的基础设施支出是非常值得的。$META 字面上指引了30%+的同比增长。$GOOGL 指引GCP 48%的同比增长，Gemini用户数量飙升（他们去年的主要威胁是ChatGPT）。为未来的投资回报率(ROE)花钱比短期增加股价带来更大的价值。
英文原文
For all the people worrying about "AI Capex" spend with $GOOGL and $META. Google using their OWN operating cash flow ($180B) to fund the AI buildout for TPUs, GCP, and DCs is positive. They generated ~$165B in 2025. Just look at what happened to $PYPL, when you only about short-term share price with buybacks. Paypal literally issued another $6B buyback and the share price is down 20%. Infrastructure spend to accelerate revenue like $META at trillion dollar valuations is incredibly worth. $META literally guided 30%+ Y/Y growth. $GOOGL guided GCP 48% Y/Y growth and Gemini user numbers skyrocketed (their main threat was ChatGPT last year). Spending money for future return on equity delivers much more value than short-term increases on share prices.
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联发科AI收入预测远低于谷歌资本支出，谷歌大幅上调支出聚焦推理成本。
Counterpoint Research 指出，联发科(Mediatek)对2026年云端AI/ASIC(专用集成电路)收入约10亿美元的预测，与 $GOOGL 的资本支出(capex)以及 $AVGO 目前的营收相比，简直是沧海一粟。 但谷歌确实带来了震撼，将其资本支出预测上调了50%以上，并表示将专注于推理(inference)成本。 所以谁知道呢
英文原文
Counterpoint is Mediatek's ~$1B projections for Cloud AI/ASIC revenue for 2026 was a drop in the bucket compared to $GOOGL capex spend and what $AVGO currently brings in. But Google did deliver a shock upping its capex projections by 50%+ and said they would focus on inference costs. So who knows
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谷歌巨额资本支出验证联发科在AI供应链中的地位。
联发科是 $GOOGL TPU 生态系统（TPU v7e 和 v8e）中有趣的一部分。 以及 $NVDA Blackwell（例如 GB10 Grace 设计）。 他们曾在 2025 年做出雄心勃勃的预测，认为其将占据数据中心 ASIC 市场 10-15% 的份额，与 $AVGO 相比。 但鉴于谷歌目前 1750-1850 亿美元的资本支出，看来他们的说法正在得到验证。 披露：无持仓。
英文原文
Mediatek is an interesting part of $GOOGL TPU ecosystem (TPU v7e and v8e). And $NVDA Blackwell (eg. GB10 Grace design). They did make ambitious projections of 10–15% of the DC ASIC market back in 2025 vs. $AVGO. But given Google's $175-185B capex spend today, looks like their claims are getting validated. Disclosure: Have no positions.
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TPU/DC供应链庞大，难点在于识别BOM及相对市值受益最大的公司。
@PhotonCap 是的，TPU/DC（数据中心）的供应链规模巨大，$GLW 以及其他受益于 $META 和 $GOOGL 资本支出的公司都是赢家。主要问题（也是最难的部分）在于识别BOM（物料清单），并找出相对于当前市值而言受益最大的公司。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Yes, the supply chain for TPU/DC is massive with $GLW and other beneficiaries from $META and $GOOGL capex. Main thing (hardest part) is identifying BOM and who benefits the most from this relative to current MC.
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谷歌转向TPU利好相关托管商，NBIS非其受益者。
@lawbrax 这对通过 Fluidstack 与 $GOOGL 相关的托管设施(Colo)公司，如新云(NeoCloud)领域的 $CIFR 和 $WULF 是利好消息。 看起来谷歌主要转向张量处理单元(TPU)了。我认为 $NBIS 并非谷歌的受益者，但他们曾是 $META 的受益者。
英文原文
@lawbrax This is positive for $GOOGL related colo companies through Fluidstack like $CIFR and $WULF in neocloud sector. Looks like Google is primarily shifting to TPUs now. Don't think $NBIS is a beneficiary of Google but they were with $META.
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AI供应链企业欢迎谷歌巨额资本支出增加
@beauty_oe 市场对 $GOOGL 的巨额支出感到厌恶。然而，受益于5000亿美元资本支出(CAPEX)增加的AI供应链企业却对此表示热烈欢迎！
英文原文
@beauty_oe 市場は $GOOGL の巨額支出を嫌気しています。しかし、500億ドルの設備投資（CAPEX）増額の恩恵を受けるAIサプライチェーン企業たちは、これを大歓迎しています！
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谷歌巨额资本支出加速AI基建，利好相关供应链。
$GOOGL 公布了财报，其资本支出(CapEX)规模巨大。 1750亿-1850亿美元 vs. 1200亿美元。 这对AI基础设施建设是利好。 跟随资金流向下游： - $AVGO、联发科、$TSM（设计/晶圆代工） - SK海力士、三星、$MU、$SNDK（存储） - $ANET、$LITE、$COHR、$VRT（网络、光子学、能源） 等等，因为谷歌表示支出主要在于：“包括服务器、数据中心和网络在内的AI基础设施”。 从 $META 到 $GOOGL 的超大规模云服务商正在大幅增加资本支出。 这仅仅表明： AI基础设施建设正在加速，并由全球最盈利的公司资助。 做多AI供应链。
英文原文
$GOOGL reported earnings and their CapEX spend was enormous. $175-$185 Billion vs. $120 Billion. This is bullish for AI buildout. Follow the money flow down to: - $AVGO, Mediatek, $TSM (design / foundry) - Sk hynix, Samsung, $MU, $SNDK (memory) - $ANET, $LITE, $COHR, $VRT (network, photonics, energy) etc. as Google said spend was: "primarily on AI infrastructure including servers, data centers and networking" Hyperscalers from $META to $GOOGL are increasing their capex spend enormously. This just goes to show: AI buildout is accelerating and is funded by the most profitable companies in the world. Long AI supply chains.
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建议放弃逆向股，重仓三星和SK海力士等AI存储巨头。
老实说，光看这份预估净利润图表…… 让人不禁疑惑，为什么人们还要试图全仓押注像 $PYPL、$FIG 或 $DUOL 这样的逆向反转交易？ 我觉得，坐在像三星或 SK 海力士这样盈利且超增长的公司里“躺平”，才是最容易做的事？ 它们相比“七巨头(Mag7)”规模相对较小，但预计将在 2027 年成为全球最盈利的公司。 有时候，最好的做法就是参与这些显而易见的交易，开启“简单模式”的生活。
英文原文
Honestly just looking at the quoted net income chart… Makes you wonder why people try and full port it into contrarian turnaround plays like $PYPL, $FIG, or $DUOL I feel like sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix is just the easiest thing to do? They’re relatively small compared to Mag7, but projected to become the most profitable companies in the world in 2027. Sometimes the best thing to do is just join in on the no-brainer trades and live life on easy mode.
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白银暴跌引发连锁清算，建议转向AI及高现金流标的防御。
市场正经历清算级联效应。白银的崩盘现已蔓延至加密货币及美/外股市。具体情况如下： 以下是预期走势： - $BMNR（加密货币） - $RKLB（高贝塔值） - $SNDK（AI） - 至三星（外国股票）。 “Warsh”美联储主席提名是引发抛售的初始触发因素，市场将其视为“鹰派”->量化紧缩（Quantitative Tightening）。然而，这是一个误解，因为美联储主席很可能与特朗普的政策保持一致，且由于AI因素，其近期立场偏向短期鸽派+降息。 然而，抛售的技术性原因是CME+交易所控制强制白银保证金清算。随着白银日内暴跌33%，机构被迫清算其他标的并进行对冲。因此，我们看到了： 1. 恐惧传染——当避险金属如此暴跌时，会在其他板块引发恐慌。 2. 避险情绪——投资者恐慌性抛售“风险”资产和股票/转向美元和国债。 为了进行防御性操作： - 最好将投机性标的重新配置为符合新政策的自由现金流（FCF）/盈利型多头头寸。 - 如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 跌至 $MU、$TSM、$JPM、三星等标的将受益最大。 - 从 $PYPL 到 $SNAP 等已处于低位（具有强劲预期自由现金流）且被进一步抛售的股票，呈现出不错的反弹上行空间。 尤其是鉴于美联储主席预计对从AI到银行业的许多板块持看涨态度，且由AI增长+生产力推动的降息预期强烈。 警告： - 更多不产生巨大自由现金流的投机性小盘股（从 $ONDS 到 $RKLB）可能因与高贝塔板块抛售的相关性而面临更大风险。 - 像 $BMNR 这样持有非流动性资产（例如Mr. Beast公司2亿美元）的杠杆基金，以及像 $QBTS 或 $RGTI 这样的投机性标的，可能会最终看到重置/清零。 - 像 $JD 到 $BABA 这样的外国市场标的或像 $MELI 这样的新兴市场标的可能会受到流动性流失的影响。 当然，日内交易者可能会在高贝塔标的的反弹时机上大显身手（例如，如果 $ETH 闪崩12%至$2.1K -> 恢复至$2.3K）。 话虽如此，这并不是说“卖出高贝塔”。 鉴于以太坊从$3k+跌至$2.18k，这只是对目前在高贝塔板块使用保证金的人发出的警告： 如果高贝塔股票出现持续抛售，风险相当大。（我个人将以太坊作为代理指标）。 这只是个人市场观点，但总体而言，随着中期选举临近+更多预期的降息+财报表现创历史新高（例如 $SNDK 的爆发），对市场保持极度看涨是好的。 市场在中期选举前看到绿色V型复苏只是时间问题。 基本面没有改变，但表象和短期流动性改变了。
英文原文
Markets are seeing liquidation cascades. Silver's crash is now extending into other markets like Crypto and US/Foreign stocks. Here's what's happening: And here's what to expect from: - $BMNR (Crypto) - $RKLB (High-Beta) - $SNDK (AI) - to Samsung (Foreign). The "Warsh" Fed Chair nomination was the initial trigger that caused the selloff as markets viewed him as a "Hawk" -> Quantitative Tightening. However, this is a mistake as the fed chair is likely aligned with Trump's policies, and his recent stance is dovish short term + rate cuts, due to AI. However, the technical reason for the selloff was CME + Exchange controls forcing margin liquidations on Silver. As silver crashed 33% intra-day, institutions are forced to liquidate other names and hedge. So, we're seeing both: 1. Fear Contagion - when a safe haven metal plummets this much, this causes a panic across other sectors. 2. Flight to Safety - investors panic-sell "risky" assets and stocks / move to U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds. To play defensive: - It's best to reposition speculative names into FCF/profit generating long positions aligning with these new policies. - Names like $GOOGL, $NVDA down to $MU, $TSM, $JPM, Samsung, and others stand to benefit the most. - Stocks that are already at lows (with strong expected FCF) from $PYPL to $SNAP that are being sold off even more present decent recovery upside. Especially since the Fed chair is expected to be bullish for many sectors from AI to Banking, with rate-cuts fueled by AI growth + productivity. For a warning: - More speculative small cap names (that don't generate massive FCF) from $ONDS to $RKLB may be more at risk due to correlation to high-beta sector selloffs. - Leveraged funds like $BMNR with iliquid assets (eg. $200M in Mr. Beast's company) to speculative names like $QBTS or $RGTI may finally see a reset/wipeout. - Foreign market names like $JD to $BABA or emerging market names like $MELI may be impacted from a liquidity drain. But of course, day-traders may have a field day timing rebounds on high-beta names (eg. if $ETH flash crashes 12% to $2.1K -> recovery to $2.3K). That being said this is not saying "Sell High-Beta". This is just a warning to people with margin on high-beta sectors now that given Ethereum's flush from $3k+ down to $2.18k: There's considerable risk if there's an extended selloff on high-beta stocks. (I've been personally looking at Ethereum as a proxy). This is just personal market opinion, but generally as midterms come up + more expected rate cuts + earnings coming out higher than ever (eg. $SNDK's blowout), it's good to remain extremely bullish on the market. And it's just a matter of time before markets see a green V recovery before midterms. Fundamentals haven't changed but optics have and short-term liquidity have.
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摩根士丹利预测2027年存储巨头利润登顶，确认存储超级周期已至。
存储超级周期已至。 据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最新报告估算： - 三星(Samsung)净利润约1630亿美元 - 海力士(SK Hynix)约1209亿美元。 这将使三星成为全球最赚钱的公司，甚至超过$NVDA和$GOOGL。 以下是前十名排名： 1. 三星电子 ~1630亿美元 (2027年) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL 1524.4亿美元 3. Apple $APPL 1330.5亿美元 4. Microsoft $MSFT 1276.5亿美元 5. 海力士 $SKHYNIX 1209亿美元 (2027年) 6. NVIDIA $NVDA 1165.1亿美元 7. Amazon $AMZN 952.2亿美元 8. Meta $META 850.9亿美元 9. 伯克希尔哈撒韦 $BRK 815亿美元 10. 摩根大通 $JPM 728.1亿美元 这是基于companiesmarketcap来源的2027年前瞻净利润与过去十二个月(TTM)净利润的对比。感谢@jukan05提供摩根士丹利报告。上述数据排除了沙特阿美(National companies)等国有企业。 来自$MU、三星和海力士的存储超级周期显然已经到来。
英文原文
The Memory Supercycle is here. New reports from Morgan Stanley est. - Samsung's net profit ~$163.0B USD - SK Hynix's ~$120.9B USD. That would make Samsung the most profitable company in the world, even more than $NVDA and $GOOGL. Here are the top 10 rankings: 1. Samsung Electronics ~$163.0B (2027) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL $152.44B 3. Apple $APPL $133.05B 4 Microsoft $MSFT $127.65B 5. Sk Hynix $120.9B (2027 6. NVIDIA $NVDA $116.51B 7. Amazon $AMZN $95.22B 8 Meta$META $85.09B 9. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $81.5B 10. JPMorgan Chase $JPM $72.81B This is forward 2027 net income compared to TTM net income sourced by from companiesmarketcap. Credit to @jukan05 for the Morgan Stanley report. Excluding National companies like Saudi Aramco in these figures. The memory supercyle from $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix is here clearly here.
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提醒勿对谷歌股价过度乐观，指出其曾出现开盘涨幅大幅回落的情况。
@mitchell_a30803 别乌鸦嘴！我们曾见过 $GOOGL 在众人庆祝后，开盘涨幅从 7% 回落至 0 的情况。但让我们看看事态如何发展。
英文原文
@mitchell_a30803 Don’t jinx it! We’ve seen $GOOGL go down market open from 7% to 0 before after everyone was celebrating. But we’ll see how things play out
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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特朗普关税恐慌是估值礼物，国防与本土AI供应链将受益于政策博弈。
关于$OSS -6.1%至$ONDS -4.85%下跌引发的潜在市场崩盘恐慌很多。但随着市场转红，特朗普已开始降级局势。从特朗普关税的历史来看，我们知道一件事：特朗普非常在意市场： - $AVAV的复制者（Replicator）Switchblade无人机项目 至 - 复制者2（Replicator 2）反无人机系统，$AIRO、$ONDS等可能受益。 1.5万亿美元的拟议国防支出保持不变。 AI建设中的 - $LITE、$COHR在$GOOGL和超大规模ASIC建设中的角色 或 - $INTC、$SKY在美国本土硬件中的角色 均未改变。我们正见证历史上最大的无人机、关键材料储备、AI建设、太空扩张及“美国制造”供应链的扩张。 我认为这种波动往往是“估值礼物”，因为这些都是空头威胁。欧美领导人之间的泄露消息显示对话正在进行。特朗普只是在用“极限施压”话术看能谈判到什么。当然，特朗普将标普500视为其实时支持率，这就是为什么他在中期选举前迫使大幅降息。随着美股隔夜转红，我们已看到局势缓和。我们很可能会看到完整的“贸易协议达成”，以便他宣称成功->市场创历史新高。
英文原文
There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from $OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON. But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red. From the history of Trump's tariffs We know one thing. Trump cares too much about the market: $1.5T in proposed defense spending from - $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs to - Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others. is still the same. Nothing in the AI buildout from - $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout or - $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware has changed. We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history. My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place. Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated. And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections. As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already. And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.
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分析AI算力股与云厂商的算法关联及市场定价不确定性。
$GOOGL / Gemini 可能正在公开为这一结果欢呼。像 $CIFR 这样的公司主要通过 Fluidstack 与 Google 紧密绑定。然而，正如我们在上一轮下跌中所见，$NBIS 到 $IREN 在算法上被关联到 Oracle 和 Coreweave，无论 OpenAI 的关系影响如何。不确定市场这次会如何对此进行定价。
英文原文
$GOOGL / Gemini is probably openly cheering for this outcome. Companies like $CIFR are largely tethered to Google through Fluidstack. However, as we've seen last drop, $NBIS to $IREN were algorithmically associated with Oracle and Coreweave regardless of OpenAi relational impact. Not sure how markets price this in this time.
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分享利用期权杠杆捕捉大盘股波动以获取非对称收益的策略。
好问题！中小盘领域并不总是存在极高Alpha/高确信度/非对称性的机会。 但如果我看到机会，即使是像 $META 这样的大盘股，我也会抓住。上次我这样做是在 $GOOGL 145美元时。 你也可以通过保证金/期权将低风险转化为高风险。 因此，如果正确判断雪佛龙 $CVX 2%的波动，由于期权未充分定价波动，回报可能达到30%。 在这种情况下，如果 Meta 下跌20-30%并通过期权反弹，那将是百分之几百的收益。
英文原文
Great question! There's not always an extremely high alpha/high-conviction/asymmetric opportunity out there in the small-medium cap world. But if I see an opportunity, even with big caps like $META, I'll take it. Last time I did was with $GOOGL at $145. You can also turn lower risk into higher risk with margin/options. So getting a 2% Chevron $CVX movement correctly might be 30% return since options don't price in much movement. In this case with Meta, if it sells off over 20-30%, and it rebounds with options, that would be a few hundred percent gain.
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Meta 资本支出叙事被高估，AI 投资回报率高，预期利润增长将扭转市场看法。
我的观点是，在财报发布后的最初几秒内，$META 的下跌是一场算法闪崩，原因是 BBB 未被标准化（尽管 Meta 在所有方面都超预期）。 抛售发生后的几分钟内，新闻开始铺天盖地地报道 Meta 因资本支出“担忧”而下跌，而不是报道其业绩超预期。这成为了市场叙事。但事实上，即使有“疯狂”的支出，Meta 上季度仍产生了 106 亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)。 你说得对，分析师们忽略了这一点。但自那以后，维持 META 当前股价的是叙事/表象，而非数字（186 亿美元净利润）。 但我会说，这次的情况类似于当时所有人都说 $GOOGL 搜索业务正在消亡的时候。我记得在 145 美元时做多 Google，因为数据表明事实并非如此。 如果我们看现在的数据，所有人都在声称 $META 的资本支出(CapEx)失控（2025 年 720 亿美元，2026 年约 1000 亿美元），并将吞噬所有利润。 然而，$META 上季度以惊人的 26% 速度增长，因为他们自己的 AI 基础设施优化广告收入的回报率目前高于地球上几乎任何其他投资，所以我不认为他们需要给出其他答案。只需指向营收增长/净利润即可。 当每股收益(EPS)从 1.05 美元增长到预计的约 8.30 美元（季度跳跃 690%）时，我认为叙事将转变为他们的利润 > 资本支出。 分析师（Cantor Fitzgerald, Rosenblatt, Wedbush）一直给出 2026 年 800–1,100 美元的目标价(PT)，有时只需要下一次财报带来的叙事转变。但我们将看看这是否正确。
英文原文
So my thesis was that during first few seconds, $META post-ER was an algorithmic flash crash from BBB not being normalized (despite Meta beating on all fronts). Minutes around the selloff, news started posting everywhere Meta was dropping due to capex "fears", rather than posting their earnings beats. And that became the narrative. But in reality, even with the "insane" spending, Meta generated $10.6B in FCF last quarter. You're right analysts look past that. But ever since then it became narrative/optics rather than numbers ($18.6B net profit) that kept META where it;s at now. But I'd say this time is similar to when everyone was saying $GOOGL search was dying. I remember entering Google longs at $145 because the numbers were saying otherwise. If we look at the numbers now, everyone is claiming $META CapEx is out of control ($72B in 2025, ~$100B in 2026) and will eat all the profits. Yet $META grew at astounding rates with 26% last quarter because the ROI on their own AI infra for optimizing ad revenue is currently higher than almost any other investment on earth, so I don't quite think they need an answer. Just point to revenue growth/net profit. And when they go from a $1.05 EPS to a projected ~$8.30 EPS (690% quarterly jump), I think the narrative will change that their profits > capex. Analysts (Cantor Fitzgerald, Rosenblatt, Wedbush) have are been giving $800–$1,100 PTs for 2026, sometimes all it takes is a narrative shift from their next er. But we'll see if this is right or not.
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Meta盈利被会计手段掩盖，预计下季叙事反转。
$META 的盈利能力简直惊人。但这只是叙事。 当我在 145 美元买入 $GOOGL 多头时，尽管数据表明事实并非如此，但所有人都说搜索业务正在消亡。 在 Meta 的案例中，他们正在疯狂印钞，而这只是表面现象。上个季度的净利润本应为 186 亿美元（大幅超预期），但由于“美好法案”（big beautiful bill）的影响，报告值仅为 27.1 亿美元。 我猜测，当他们在下个季度通过会计手段进行反向操作（reverse uno）以优化表面数据时，市场叙事将再次改变。 只是想发个帖子看看我的预测是否正确。
英文原文
$META is insanely profitable. That’s just narrative. When I bought $GOOGL longs at $145 everyone was saying search was dying even though numbers say otherwise. In Meta’s case they’re printing money and this is just optics. Net income last quarter would be $18.6B (large beat) but reported was $2.71B from big beautiful bill. My guess is when they play reverse uno, with accounting optics next quarter the narrative changes again. Just wanted to post to see if it turns out right
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LLM难析二阶效应，中国管制致住友短缺影响LITE，涨价或抵消。
大语言模型(LLMs)在分析二阶和三阶效应方面表现糟糕。这基本上源于中国对日本实施出口管制后的供应链冲击。住友电气(Sumitomo) -> $LITE -> $GOOGL（但如今住友可能面临短缺，因此提供给LITE的材料减少 -> 收入减少）。但如果光学组件制造商决定像高带宽内存(HBM)那样提高价格，这一影响将被抵消。
英文原文
LLMs are terrible at analyzing second-third order effects. Basically it stems from supply chain shock after China's export controls on Japan. Sumitomo -> $LITE -> $GOOGL (but now Sumitomo might face shortages, so less material supply for Lite -> less revenue). But this would be offset if optical component makers decided to ramp up prices like HBM.
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AXTI垄断InP衬底，出口管制下可通过提价而非扩产实现价值重估。
出口管制是最大的风险。但他们日本供应链中的两大竞争对手刚刚被禁止出口。因此，现在 $AXTI 以及通过一步跳板的中国，控制了磷化铟(InP)衬底和材料的流向。我认为许多分析师在建模时忽略的一点是，这并非关于扩大产量或数量，而是基于供应有限的关键资源进行定价。这就是博弈论在资源分配中的应用，类似于高带宽内存(HBM)的情况，但不同的是主要只有一个玩家。磷化铟(InP)的潜在市场规模(TAM)此前仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信产品。现在，$GOOGL 愿意支付数十亿美元，仅为了确保其 Ironwood 项目不会停滞。其他超大规模云服务商也是如此。当各方开始争夺配额时，TAM 将从数亿美元跃升至数十亿甚至 100 亿美元以上。而 $AXTI 在两个不同瓶颈环节占据垄断地位，市值却仅为 12 亿美元左右。例如，价格增加 3000% 在专用集成电路(ASIC)集群的物料清单(BOM)价值中仅占百分之几。在出口管制下，你不需要生产多 3000% 的材料，只需提高价格即可。
英文原文
Export controls is the biggest risk. But their two biggest competitors over in the Japanese supply chain just got export control banned. So now $AXTI and by one hop, China, controls the flow of InP substrates and materials. I think what a lot of analysts miss when modelling this is that it's not about scaling up production or quantity, it's about pricing based on a critical resource with finite supply. This is where game theory comes into play about resource allocation like what's going on with HBM, but instead of multiple players you mainly have one. The TAM of InP earlier few hundred million because it was a niche telecom product. Now, $GOOGL would happily pay billions just so their ironwood program doesn't stall out. Same with every other hyperscaler. Then TAM goes from few hundred million to few billions or $10B+ when they start fighting for allocations. And MC is still only $1.2Bish for a monopolistic position in two different bottlenecks. A 3000%+ increase for example in price would only be a few percent BOM value in an asic cluster. You don't need to produce 3000% more material with export controls, just increase the prices.
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日本InP出口管制或致光模块产能瓶颈，作者减持相关风险敞口。
我们正目睹市场的第三阶效应，$LITE、$AAOI 及光子学板块遭遇血洗，跌幅超 10%。 原因多重，包括 SanDisk 下跌 10%+ 引发的板块拖累及其他抛售。 但我的细微观点是：由于日本出口管制，整个日本供应链的磷化铟(InP)库存/产能可能耗尽，而这正是西方大规模光模块建设所必需的。 我不会将 $COHR 与其他光子学玩家混为一谈，但他们已面临产能紧张，且受住友、JX 影响，情况可能恶化。 这将导致 $LITE 等缺乏 InP 来为 $GOOGL TPU Ironwood 等生产光模块的公司产能受限。 然而，若出现以下情况，这种影响将被抵消，我们可能看到持续反弹： -> 下游如高带宽内存(HBM)的定价溢价抵消产品短缺。 -> 日本以某种方式解除 InP 出口禁令（不太可能）。 -> 若 $AXTI 在获得 1 亿美元融资翻倍产能后，能向西方供应商大规模交付衬底，事情将顺利进行。 总之，我想从供应链角度提供另一种视角，因为鲜有人评论这一点。 鉴于本周看到的出口管制风险及 $AXTI 的新垄断瓶颈，我个人已移除部分光模块敞口风险。但我不是空头，不会利用这一点。 我对整体板块极度看好，但对光子学玩家（是风险厌恶抛售延续还是反弹）的走势毫无头绪。
英文原文
We’re seeing third order effects in markets with $LITE, $AAOI, and photonics having a bloodbath, dropping 10%+. It’s multifaceted, with sector drop from Sandisk -10%+ and others selling off as well. But my nuance take is that the entire Japanese supply chain will likely run out of InP inventory/capacity from Japanese export controls, required for the western optical buildout at scale. I wouldn’t quite lump $COHR in with the other photonics players but while they’re already capacity strained, it’s likely going to get worse with Sumitomo, JX affected. This would capacity strain $LITE and others who would lack the inp to produce opticals for $GOOGL TPU Ironwood and others. However this would be offset and we might see a continued rally if -> pricing premium downstream like HBM would offset any product supply shortage. -> Japan manages to remove the export control InP ban in some way (unlikely) -> if $AXTI delivers the substrates at scale to western suppliers (after their $100m funding to double capacity), things will proceed. That being said just wanted to offer another perspective on the drop since I haven’t really seen anyone comment on this from the supply chain angle. I personally removed some optical exposure risk after seeing the supply chain vulnerability this week from export controls and the new monopolistic bottleneck by $AXTI. But I’m not a short seller so I wouldn’t take advantage of it. I’m extremely bullish on the overall segment, but no clue what’s going to happen (whether risk-off selloff continues or rebound) for photonics players.
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$AXTI因出口管制成InP垄断者，控制AI光子学双瓶颈，作者买入。
为了提供一些背景：存在两个不同的瓶颈，$AXTI 正处于这两个瓶颈之间。 磷化铟(InP) 原料——双寡头垄断（至关重要，$AXTI 与中国控制着约 78%-80% 的供应）。像 $DOWA 这样的公司相对产量极低。 磷化铟(InP) 衬底——垄断（$AXTI）。此前是双寡头（$AXTI 和住友电气 Sumitomo Electric），占据 60-70% 的 InP 衬底产量，其他日本公司如 JX 贡献的量微乎其微。然而，两天前实施的出口管制限制了向住友及生产 InP 衬底的日本公司供应原料和关键材料，情况发生了改变。 他们虽有库存，但随着出口管制持续，他们将缺乏大规模生产衬底所需的材料，$AXTI 将在 3-6 个月内成为垄断者，这就是上述框架的由来。 这不是数量游戏。这是基于有限材料的价格挤压博弈论。$AXTI 拥有从矿产开采、精炼到衬底生产的全链条供应链及成本结构。 这将转化为利润率。你之前看到的是数亿美元的市场规模(TAM)，现在仅因 $GOOGL TPU、$MSFT Maia、$NVDA、$META 等光子学 AI 建设所需的纯粹必要需求，就可能膨胀至 100 亿美元以上。 这家市值 10 亿美元的公司控制了 AI 建设的两个不同瓶颈。我像早期在 HBM 领域买入 $MU 和 $SNDK 那样买入瓶颈环节，我不试图说服你也这样做，只是分享我的投资论点。
英文原文
Just to give some perspective: There's two different bottlenecks. $AXTI sits in the middle of two. InP Feedstock - Duopoly (Vital, $AXTI with China controlling ~78%-80% of supply). Companies like $DOWA produce extremely low amounts relatively. InP Substrates - Monopoly ( $AXTI ). Formerly it was a duopoly ( $AXTI, Sumitomo Electric) with 60-70% of InP substrate production. With misc Japanese companies like JX contributing much tinier amounts. However this changed with export controls 2 days ago restricting feedstock and critical material supply to Sumitomo and Japanese companies that produce InP substrates. They have inventory, but with the export controls continuing, they will lack the materials to produce substrates at scale and $AXTI becomes the monopoly in 3-6 months, hence the framing. This is not a quantity game. This is game theory on price squeezes based on limited materials. $AXTI owns the mineral mines all the way to refining -> substrate production and the supply chain + cost structure. This translates into margins. You were looking at few hundred million TAM that could now inflate to $10B+ just due to pure necessary required for $GOOGL TPUs, $MSFT maia, $NVDA, $META, and so no AI buildout with photonics. This $1B company controls two different bottleneck for the AI buildout. I'm buying into the bottleneck like what happened at the start with HBM with $MU and $SNDK, I'm not trying to convince you to as well, just sharing my thesis.
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HBM 瓶颈导致传统建模失效，磷化铟成新瓶颈，$AXTI 因卡位 AI 建设具极高价值。
当出现像 $MU 或 SK 海力士的 HBM（高带宽内存）这样极不常规的瓶颈时，诸如 NTM（下一财年）这样的标准建模就会失效。目前 HBM 的需求极度缺乏弹性，买家不再询问价格，即使在价格飙升数百%后，他们仍在寻求配额分配。在这种情况下，基于 $NVDA 2025 年上半年 EML（边缘机器学习）的现有短缺，以及 $MSFT 等公司仅其项目就需要全球两位数的磷化铟(InP)产量（针对 2026 年下半年至 2027 年），$AXTI 很可能在接下来几个月成为下一个瓶颈。因此，当 $GOOGL 等超大规模云服务商为避免 TPU 项目停滞而迫切寻求配额时，原本数亿 TAM（总可寻址市场）可能迅速膨胀至数十亿甚至上百亿，这使得对瓶颈的建模变得不可能。这本质上是买入“比特分配”、原料控制和瓶颈环节。一家市值 13 亿美元的公司卡住了整个 AI 建设的脖子，在我看来很便宜。我不知道这会走向何方，但我预计会出现极大的价格挤压（我们在 SMM 上已看到迹象），这将增加 $AXTI 的底线利润。许可证波动一直是一个风险因素。但同样，任何延迟都会因为这是单点故障而卡住整个 AI 建设，前提是如果中国继续对日本实施出口管制。
英文原文
Standard modeling like NTM breaks when there's extremely unconventional bottlenecks like HBM with $MU or Sk Hynix. HBM demand is so inelastic rn that buyers aren't asking for price, they're asking for allocation even after hundreds of percent increases. And in this case InP and $AXTI will likely be the next bottleneck in the upcoming months, just based on existing shortages from $NVDA EML H1 2025 and how others like $MSFT require the world's double digit inp output just for their program for H2 2026 into 2027. So it's impossible to model bottlenecks where few hundred million TAM previously might squeeze to few billion or tens of billions when hyperscalers like $GOOGL are desperate for allocation so their TPU program doesn't stall out. This is buying into bit-allocation, feedstock control, and bottlenecks. A $1.3B company bottlenecking the entire AI buildout looks cheap to me. I don't know where this is heading, but I do expect an extremely large price squeeze (we're seeing it now on SMM), which just increases the bottom line of $AXTI. License volatility was always a risk factor. But again, any delays would just bottleneck the entire AI buildout since this is single point of failure if China continues their export controls on Japan.
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材料出口管制致AXTI垄断，下游产能受阻，错杀带来机会
他们确实可以，这一瓶颈向下游传导，损害了 $COHR 到 $LITE 向 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 的产能爬坡。特别是鉴于住友/JX 面临材料出口管制导致的短缺，$AXTI 将在几个季度后处于垄断地位。人们非理性地对 2024 年合同的前置收益和递延收入确认做出反应，而忽视了当前状况，在我看来这提供了一个绝佳的机会。
英文原文
They can, and this bottleneck flows downstream and hurts $COHR to $LITE capacity ramp into $GOOGL to $MSFT. Especially given $AXTI will be monopoly status in a few quarter once Sumitomo/JX face shortages from material export controls. People illogically reacting to former earnings from 2024 contracts and deferred revenue recognition, while ignoring the situation now presents a great opportunity imo
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分析$AXTI在InP衬底供应链的垄断瓶颈地位及非对称投资机会。
磷化铟(InP)衬底的可寻址市场(TAM)此前仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信大宗商品。 大多数分析师或卖方报告建模错误，因为其增长并非线性。 这是$AXTI在那些渴望获得配额的全球万亿美元级公司之间，对一种关键材料形成的博弈论式供应瓶颈。 你可以看到，一旦$AXTI和InP的供应短缺启动，其远期TAM和利润率将像高带宽内存(HBM)一样呈指数级增长。我之前做过这个评论，以下是总结： 1. 7N铟原料的价格在上海有色网(SMM)开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI出口至西方，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间的分化。 12月19日：亚洲金属网报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响InP衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模云服务商/西方供应链已经为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长激光二极管(EML)产能后，他们已产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模云服务商的部署因产能问题而放缓。 -> 他们将向上游确保材料（此前因是电信大宗商品而极便宜），然后这就像HBM一样变成博弈论式的配额战。但除了$AXTI，你基本上没有其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数的产能，但实际上根本不够。 3. 最关键的是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面的材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子AI升级中，你会如何评估单一公司的单点故障价值。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会随之崩溃。例如，CEO表示在出口管制前（以及他们筹集1亿美元增加产能前），他们占InP供应链的40%。 而这个巨大的整个AI供应链瓶颈仅估值13亿美元，而一些没有实质影响的随机量子公司却价值100多亿美元。 由于没人知道衬底或原料价格会去向何方，很难准确建模那些TAM突然从数亿变为用于每个AI部署的瓶颈和目标价(PT)。 对我来说，这只是买入拥有最纯粹非对称性博弈的瓶颈（现在恰好是垄断）。
英文原文
TAM for InP substrates was few hundred million previously since it was a niche telecom commodity. Most analysts or charters model this wrong since it's not linear. It's a game theory supply bottleneck of a critical material that $AXTI controls between all the world's trillion dollar companies that are desperate for allocation. You can see both forward TAM and margins increase exponentially like HBM once supply shortage kicks in for $AXTI and InP. I made this comment earlier but this is a summary: 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's impossible to accurately model bottlenecks and PTs where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes. For me it's just buying into the bottleneck with the purest asymmetry play there is (which happens to be a monopoly now).
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铟价分化及日本出口管制使AXTI成AI光子学关键瓶颈，估值被低估。
这只是我个人的观点。自上次财报电话会议以来，许多情况已发生变化： 1. 7纳米铟(Indium)原料价格在SMM开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI向西方出口，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间出现分化。 12月19日：Asian Metal报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实截至周末，定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响磷化铟(InP)衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模数据中心/西方供应链已为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长(EML)产能后，他们面临产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模数据中心部署放缓，可能源于产能问题。 -> 他们将向上游锁定材料（此前作为电信大宗商品极其便宜），然后这变成类似高带宽内存(HBM)的博弈论分配战。但除了$AXTI，你几乎找不到其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数产能，但实际根本不够。 3. 最大变化是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子学AI扩张中，对单一公司故障点价值的评估。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会崩溃。例如，CEO称在出口管制（及其1亿美元融资扩产）之前，他们占InP供应链的40%。 这个整个AI供应链的巨大瓶颈市值仅为13亿美元，而一些无实质影响的量子公司市值却超100亿美元。 很难对瓶颈进行建模，因为数亿总可寻址市场(TAM)突然用于每个AI部署，且无人知晓衬底或原料价格去向。
英文原文
So this is just my perspective on this. Lot of things have changed since the last earnings call, 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's hard to model bottlenecks where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes.
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AXTI成InP衬底垄断瓶颈，估值偏低，建议关注其作为AI光学关键标的的投资价值。
$AXTI 在中国通过出口管制重创日本磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链后，实际上已成为一个单点故障垄断者。未来的AI基础设施建设依赖于光学技术。AXT目前的估值为11亿美元，考虑到其对$NVDA、$GOOGL、$MSFT、$META等公司的重要性，我觉得这个估值小得可笑。当然，如果中国限制AXT的出口，下游超大规模云服务商将面临更严重的问题。但是否值得买入这个瓶颈环节，由你决定。
英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a single point of failure monopoly after China crippled Japan’s InP substrates supply chains with export controls. The future AI buildout relies on optical. AXT is valued at $1.1B currently, which I find hilariously small given the importance to $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and so on. Of course if China restricts exports from AXT there are bigger things to worry about since this flows downstream to hyperscalers. But I’ll let you decide if it’s worth buying into the bottleneck.
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AI供应链因依赖单一源AXTI面临瓶颈风险，日本厂商或被迫切换产能。
这对AI基础设施建设绝对不是什么好事，因为整个AI供应链（例如$LITE、$COHR -> $GOOGL、$NVDA等）在接下来的两年里突然变得依赖于单一来源$AXTI。 一旦日本供应耗尽，像$LITE这样的公司可能会将产能从住友（Sumitomo）、JX转向$AXTI作为主要供应商（鉴于其已融资1亿美元用于扩大产能）。 不幸的是，日本没有美国那样的谈判能力来推翻这一局面。我们将看看事态如何发展。
英文原文
This is definitely not a good thing for the AI buildout because the whole AI supply chain eg. $LITE, $COHR -> $GOOGL, $NVDA others suddenly became dependent on a single source $AXTI for the next two years. Companies like $LITE will probably shift capacity from Sumitomo, JX to $AXTI as the main supplier (given they raised $100M for more capacity) once supply in Japan runs out. Unfortunately Japan doesn't have the same negotiating power as the US to overturn this. We'll see how this develops.
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解析AXTI作为光子AI供应链底层材料商的关键地位。
如果 $GOOGL 想建造更多 TPU，就需要 $LITE 的光子共封装(OCS)。$LITE 需要 $AXTI 的衬底（据估占独立市场30%，CEO称占磷化铟(InP)供应链40%）。$AXTI 需要由 AXT 拥有的化学品和材料。 $AXTI 是整个光子学 AI 供应链的底层，因为他们拥有10多家生产高纯度化学品的材料公司。 基本上现在就像一个材料对冲基金，生产输出衬底，因此对关键的 InP 瓶颈拥有如此大的控制力和市场份额。
英文原文
If $GOOGL wants to build more TPUs, they need $LITE’s for OCS. $LITE needs $AXTI substrates (est. 30% of merchant market, CEO says 40% of InP supply chain). $AXTI needs the chemicals and materials from that happened to be owned by AXT. $AXTI is the bottom of the entire AI supply chain for photonics since they own 10+ materials companies that produce the high-purity chemicals. Basically a materials hedge fund at this point that produces the output substrate, hence why it's has so much control and market share over the critical inp bottleneck.
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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2026年十大主题投资：聚焦AI供应链瓶颈、软体机器人及支付颠覆。
2026年通讯。 主题投资：演进、颠覆与瓶颈 1. 软体机器人 - 向 $TSLA、$ONDS、波士顿动力演进。 2. 硅光子(SiPh) - 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈 | $AXTI、$LITE、$GOOGL 3. 玻璃基板 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA、$INTC、$TSM 4. 资金流动 - 对 $V、Stripe、$BOA 的颠覆 5. AI云层级 - 瓶颈 | $NBIS、$IREN、$HUT 6. LLM网络安全 - 向 $CRWD、$CSCO、$MSFT 演进 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向 $RKLB、SpaceX、$ASTS 演进 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、$PATH Cognition 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 瓶颈 | $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA (LPU/Groq)、$AMD、$INTC _这是我对从公开信息综合及瓶颈二/三阶效应来看最感兴趣的主题投资的简要概述！_ 1. 软体机器人：向机器人的演进 传统机器人（Optimus、波士顿动力）依赖逆运动学控制刚性关节。软体机器人改变了数学模型。 我们已到达硬件（Optimus、波士顿动力、Figure）与LLM（Gemini、Grok、Opus）相遇的节点，正处于大规模商业化的开端。 通过使用受章鱼触手和人类皮肤启发的材料，机器人正从齿轮转向流体性，以处理极其精细的任务，如像人手一样处理农产品，或为 $ONDS/Andruil 无人机添加类章鱼延伸以拾取极重表面。 这种演进在于跳出思维定势思考机器人能做什么。我记得7年前曾与该领域的斯坦福博士合作，AI在多年研究后开始商业化，因此该领域也是如此。 将类生物流体性添加到刚性机器人中的可能性是无限的，这只是自然演进。 大多数可能是私人公司。 2. 硅光子 - AI基础设施的瓶颈“磷化铟(InP)卡脖子点” 从Blackwell Ultra集群到Google TPU已触及上限，需要光子互连 | 共封装光学(OCS)以实现扩展。 基板：$AXTI（通过Tongmei）和住友（日本）控制全球约60-70%的InP基板市场。 材料：Vital Materials（中国）和AXT等公司控制原材料铟本身的精炼（78%+的供应链）。 如果你是美国科技巨头，你2026年的整个“AI增长故事”取决于由地缘政治对手控制的材料。 唯一可扩展的解决方案是工程绕行，要么实现芯片上光传输，同时减少90%的铟使用，要么使用微小的磷化铟薄片代替大型昂贵晶圆。 瓶颈本身有机会，如AXT、住友。或帮助解决它的公司如 $POET。 3. 玻璃基板 - 解决从 $NVDA 到其他公司的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈 向玻璃基板的转变本质上是半导体行业对当前材料物理极限的回答。 当前芯片位于有机材料（本质上是专用塑料）制成的基板上。随着芯片变大，如Nvidia巨大的GPU封装，塑料基板会翘曲。 因此，玻璃基板正成为共封装光学(CPO)的行业标准，因为它们解决了光子学中最大的对齐问题。 美国政府已视其为必要，我们看到巨额补贴流向这些公司。 $INTC、三星电子、Absolics（SKC子公司）、DNP等是主要受益者，尤其是随着MRVL和 $AVGO（推动光学开关的玻璃）推进CPO革命。 4. 资金流动 - 对卡网络、银行、交易所和支付的颠覆 几十年来，资金转移一直是“收费公路”业务。每次刷卡，2%到3%的钱流入卡网络（Visa/Mastercard）和发卡行的口袋。 或者从交易所买卖加密货币是0.2-1%。这是历史上最有利可图、“不可杀死”的商业模式。 直到现在。2025年的“天才法案”刚刚将金钱传输许可证或银行特许状交给像 $XRP 这样的公司，赋予了他们王国钥匙。 对我来说并非理论。我恰好正在自己的初创公司与创建V / $PYPL 实时支付网络的人一起从事这项工作。 但基本上，拥有现有MTL或追求银行特许状并利用天才法案及其他技术的公司，现在可以通过在美联储和区块链之上进行结算来绕过传统百分比费用，有效地将基于百分比的费用转化为几美分。 99%的公司会这样做吗？可能不会，因为支付行业的所有利润率都将归零。但我乐意看到。 但基本上，Stripe以11亿美元收购Bridge本应是对现有公司的红色警报，表明1天ACH、 interchange模式、25美元国际转账的日子即将结束。 这扩展到许多其他相邻领域，从低费用颠覆者如 $HOOD、Mercury，一直到稳定币新银行，或制作自己稳定币的公司如 $SOFI。 5. AI云层级 - 超大规模计算瓶颈的解决方案 当超大规模云厂商被困在3-5年的电网互连队列中时，像WULF和IREN这样的矿工今天就拥有即插即用的GW级算力。 这是千载难逢的机会，超大规模云厂商将其现金牛云收入流向小公司。 这里有不同的层级，从Fluidstack、Poolside、Fireworks在GPU编排层，到IREN等公司构建的裸金属层。 然后有成为超大规模云厂商本身，如NBIS拥有物理位置、GPU、软件编排，然后为推理提供简单接口。 这是少数小公司在未来一两年成为AWS或Azure，或被收购（例如GOOGL以47亿美元收购Intersect）的机会。 像NBIS、IREN、CRWV这样的新云，以及像CIFR、WULF、HUT这样的colo玩家（以及私人部门->能源）将受益。 6. LLM网络安全 - 向现代安全和漏洞防御的演进 最近的报告（例如来自Anthropic红队）显示，高级模型如Opus（及未来版本）可以自主扫描开源智能合约，并在几分钟内识别价值数百万美元的“零日”漏洞。 含义：如果AI能在不可变的区块链合约中找到逻辑缺陷，它也能在银行的SWIFT API或电网控制软件中找到缺陷。 同样适用于KYC/AML。像Gemini Nano Banana这样的模型能够创建逼真的图像/视频，人们能够绕过许多程序。 这个领域有很多不性感但具Alpha潜力的事情，如LLM自动化SOC2/PCI DSS合规，代理坐在服务器上，持续监控日志，并自动生成审计所需的证据。 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向拓展最后疆域的演进 太空是下一个大事情。这并不新鲜。（希望你懂这个笑话）。但从像 $RKLB、SpaceX这样的公司，到解决轨道拥堵或发射节奏瓶颈的公司，再到像ASTS或Starlink这样商业化基础设施的公司，在未来一年呈现许多机会。 因此，像Impulse、Blue Origin、$ASOZF到RKLB、$ASTS这样的公司将受益于整个链条。 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、PATH Cognition 这一点很简单，无需解释。但在对就业+成本节约的潜在影响上显而易见。 你如何自动化商务拓展？如何自动化营销？如何自动化软件工程师？ 这超越了ChatGPT的几步回答，直接进入现实世界，AI代理可以在X上漫游，找到合适的人，发送DM，继续对话，并在一个工作流中导致销售电话。 这是“聊天机器人”时代的结束和“行动”时代的开始，取代公司以前需要的所有人。 我尚未看到任何公司大规模做到这一点。拥有这些的公共公司如META并没有呈现最佳敞口。也许是 $PATH 在公共空间。 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 解决AI计算容量紧张的瓶颈 像GOOGL Cloud、MSFT Azure这样的超大规模云厂商已达最大容量。 Elon Musk已经提出分布式计算作为解决此问题的未来（例如，拥有 $TSLA 网络为LLM推理提供计算）。 “Tesla计算云”论点很迷人，但我识别出的最大物理障碍是：推理延迟。 要生成“Token B”，模型必须先生成“Token A”。它不能同时做两者。如果你将一个巨大模型（如Grok-3）拆分到5辆不同的汽车中以适应内存，你必须为每个生成的Token在这些汽车之间发送数据。 因此，如果汽车之间的网络延迟甚至是20ms（5G的乐观估计），而你生成50个Token，你刚刚在计算时间之上添加了1秒的纯“等待时间”（延迟）。在使用NVLink的数据中心中，该等待时间以纳秒计。 同样适用于零售用户拥有的任何备用计算机、GPU等。有数十亿消费级GPU（Teslas、iPhones、游戏PC）90%的时间闲置。 解决推理的“分布式延迟”问题呈现了计算史上最大的套利机会之一。 尚未看到任何公司大规模完成此任务。也许NVIDIA Dynamo、$AKAM、TSLA正在接近。 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 解决Nvidia和其他公司的瓶颈 既然我们不能拥有无限的InP，我们必须用现有的东西（例如铜）进行工程绕行，所以铜电缆可以做物理上说它不应该做的事，如在不损失信号的情况下跨机架传输224G信号。 行业在InP上遇到了硬性停止，美国在物理上无法开采和精炼足够的InP将数据中心中的每个链接变成光纤。 如果有任何帮助，那就是好事。例如，NVDA对Groq团队和IP的200亿美元“收购雇佣”。LPU更多是关于推理延迟/架构，但它作为副产品解决了铜寿命延长。Groq的整个架构在延迟上击败了Nvidia，因为它拒绝了光学。Groq使用“确定性”网格，依赖芯片之间的直接电气（铜）连接，避免光学开关的“抖动”和转换时间。 像 $ALAB、$CRDO、Groq，或任何能找到用铜绕过光学瓶颈方法的公司将是赢家。 _这里有从私人部门投资到公共部门的众多交易！只是今天即兴写下了我的想法，但乐意稍后详细阐述。 无论如何，我相信这些主题投资中的许多： 从投资InQ瓶颈绕行（$POET）或瓶颈本身（$AXTI）到公共部门的颠覆者（$CRCL）。 到投资铜扩展瓶颈修复（Groq）、银行特许状颠覆者（Mercury）到私人部门的演进公司（Lightmatter、Festo）。 在2026年呈现不对称上行空间。 新年快乐！
英文原文
2026 Newsletter. Thematic Investments: Evolution, Disruption, and Bottlenecks 1. Soft Robotics - Evolution to $TSLA, $ONDS, Boston Dynamics. 2. SiPh - InP Bottleneck | $AXTI, $LITE, $GOOGL 3. Glass Substrates - Bottleneck | $NVDA, $INTC, $TSM 4. Money Movement - Disruption to $V, Stripe, $BOA 5. AI Cloud Layers - Bottleneck | $NBIS, $IREN, $HUT. 6. LLM Cybersecuirty - Evolution to $CRWD, $CSCO, $MSFT 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | Evolution to $RKLB, SpaceX, $ASTS 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, $PATH Cognition 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Bottleneck | $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Bottleneck | $NVDA (LPU/Groq), $AMD, $INTC _ This is an light overview of thematic investments I find the most interesting from a public-information synthesis perspective + second/third-order effects from bottlenecks! _ 1. Soft Robotics: The Evolution to Robotics Traditional robotics (Optimus, Boston Dynamics) relies on Inverse Kinematics to rigid joints. Soft robotics changes the math. We've met the point where hardware (Optimus, Boston Dynamics, Figure) met LLMs (Gemini, Grok, Opus), and we're at the beginning of possible widespread commercialization. By using materials inspired by octopus tentacles and human skin, robots are moving away from gears and toward fluidity to handle extremely delicate tasks like handling produce like the human hand, to picking up extremely heavy surfaces adding Octopus-like extensions to $ONDS/Andruil Drones. The evolution is thinking outside the box in terms of what robotics can do. I remember working with some Stanford PHds in this field like 7 years ago, and it just so happens AI is starting to be commercialized after many years of research. So expected, this field to be as well. Possibilities are limitless adding organism-like fluidity to rigid robotics, this is just the natural evolution. Most of these are prob private companies. _ 2. Silicon Photonics - Bottleneck of the AI Infrastructure "InP Chokepoint" Blackwell Ultra Clusters to Google TPUs have hit the upper wall and requires photonics for interconnects | OCS to scale up. The Substrates: $AXTI (via Tongmei) and Sumitomo (Japan) control roughly 60-70% of the world's InP substrate market. The Materials: Companies like Vital Materials (China) and AXT control the refining of the raw Indium itself (78%+ of supply chain). If you are a US tech giant, your entire "AI Growth Story" for 2026 depends on materials controlled by geopolitical rivals. The only scalable solution is engineering around it, either by delivering light-on-chip, while using 90% less InP or companies that use tiny slivers of Indium Phosphide instead of large, expensive wafers. There's opportunities with the bottleneck itself like AXT, Sumitomo. Or companies that help address it like $POET. _ 3. Glass Substrates - Fixing the Bottleneck for CPOs from $NVDA to others. The shift toward glass substrates is essentially the semiconductor industry’s answer to a physical wall they are hitting with current materials. Current chips sit on a substrate made of organic materials (essentially specialized plastic). As chips get larger, like Nvidia's massive GPU packages, plastic substrates warps. So, glass substrates is becoming the industry standard for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) because they solve the single biggest problem in photonics with alignment. US Government already sees this as a necessity and we've seen huge subsidies funneling down to some of these companies. Companies like $INTC, Samsung Electronics, Absolics (SKC Subsidiary), DNP, and others are the main beneficiaries, especially as MRVL and $AVGO (driving glass for optical switches) move forward with CPO revolution. _ 4. Money Movement - The Disruption to Card Networks, Banking, Exchange, and Payments For decades, moving money has been a "toll road" business. Every time you swiped a card, 2% to 3% of that money vanished into the pockets of the Card Networks (Visa/Mastercard) and Issuing Banks. Or buying/selling crypto from an exchange would be .2-1%. It was the most profitable, "un-killable" business model in history. Until now. The "Genius Act" of 2025 just handed companies like $XRP with Money Transmitter Licenses or Banking Charters the keys to the kingdom. Not really theoretical for me. I happen to be working on this myself at my own startup with some folks who created V / $PYPL's real-time payment networks. But basically companies with existing MTLs or pursuing banking charters leveraging the Genius Act and some other tech can now bypass legacy % fees by doing settlement on top of the Federal Reserve and blockchains, effectively converting percentage-based fees into a few cents. Would 99% companies do it? Probably not since every single margin from across the payment industry would just go to 0. I'd be happy though. But basically Bridge's $1.1B acquisition by Stripe should have been a red-alarm to existing companies that days of 1-Day ACH, interchange models, $25 international transfers, are soon to be over. This extends to many other adjacents from low fee disruptions like $HOOD, Mercury all the way to Stablecoin Neobanks, or companies making their own stablecoins like $SOFI. _ 5. AI Cloud Layers - The Solution to HyperScaler compute Bottleneck While Hyperscalers are stuck in 3-5 year grid interconnection queues, miners like WULF and IREN are sitting on plug-ready GWs today This is the opportunity of a lifetime as hyperscaler funnel their cash cow Cloud revenues down to tiny companies. There's many different layers to this from Fluidstack, Poolside, Fireworks on the GPU orchestration layer, to the bare metal layer that companies like IREN are building. Then there's becoming the hyperscaler themselves like NBIS owning the physical locations, the GPU, software orchestration, and then providing simple interfaces for inference. This is the opportunity for a few small companies to become Amazon Web Service or Microsoft Azure over the next year or two, or get acquired (eg. GOOGL buying Intersect for $4.7B) Neoclouds like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, down to colo plays like CIFR, WULF, HUT (and private sectors -> Energy) stand to benefit. _ 6. LLM Cybersecurity - The Evolution to Modern Security and Vulnerability Defense Recent reports (e.g., from Anthropic's Red Team) showed that advanced models like Opus (and future iterations) could autonomously scan open-source smart contracts and identify "Zero-Day" exploits worth millions of dollars in minutes. The Implication: If an AI can find a logic flaw in a immutable Blockchain contract, it can find a flaw in a bank's SWIFT API or a power grid's control software. Same with KYC/AML. Models like Gemini Nano Banana are able to create realistic images/videos of people and people are able to get past a lot of programs. There's tons of things as an unsexy alpha in this field like LLMs automating away SOC2/PCI dss compliance to agents sitting on a server, continuously monitor logs, and auto-generate the evidence needed for auditors. 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | The Evolution to Expanding into the final frontier. Space is the next big thing. This is not anything new. (hope you got the joke). But anywhere from companies like $RKLB, SpaceX. Companies that fix orbital congestion or launch cadence bottlenecks. To companies that commercialize the infrastructure like ASTS or Starlink present many opportunities over the next year. So companies like Impulse, Blue Origin, $ASOZF to RKLB, $ASTS stand to benefit across the entire chain. 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, PATH Cognition This one is simple and needs no explanation. But largely obvious in potential impact on employment + cost saving. How do you automate away business development? How do you automate away marketing? How do you automate away software engineers? This is going past few step ChatGPT answers and directly in to the real world where an AI agent can roam X, find the right people, DM someone, continue conversations, and lead to a sales call in just one workflow. This is the end of the "Chatbot" era and the beginning of the "Action" era replacing everyone previously required in a company. I haven't quite seen this done at scale yet with any company. Public companies like META that own these, don't really present the best exposure. Maybe $PATH for public space. 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Fixing the Bottleneck for AI Compute Capacity Strains Hyperscalers like GOOGL Cloud, MSFT Azure at max capacity. Elon Musk already floated distributed computing as the future of solving this issue (eg. having networks of $TSLA's providing compute for LLMs for inference). The "Tesla Compute Cloud" thesis is fascinating, but the single biggest physical barrier I've identified is: Inference Latency. Too generate "Token B," the model must first finish generating "Token A." It cannot do both at the same time. If you split a massive model (like Grok-3) across 5 different cars to fit it in memory, you have to send data between those cars for every single token generated. So, if your network latency between cars is even 20ms (optimistic for 5G), and you are generating 50 tokens, you just added 1 full second of pure "waiting time" (latency) on top of the compute time. In a data center using NVLink, that wait time is measured in nanoseconds. Same applies to any spare computer, GPU, and others owned by retail users. And there's billions of consumer GPUs (Teslas, iPhones, Gaming PCs) that sit idle 90% of the time. Solving the "distributed latency" problem for inference presents one of the single greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of computing. Haven't really seen any companies that accomplished this at scale yet. Maybe NVIDIA Dynamo, $AKAM, TSLA, getting a little closer. 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Addressing the Bottlenecks of Nvidia and Others Since we can't have infinite InP, we have to engineer around it with what we have (eg. Copper), so copper cables can do things that physics said it shouldnt like carrying 224G signals across a rack without signal loss. The industry is hitting a hard stop on InP where, US cannot physically cannot mine and refine enough InP to turn every link in a data center into fiber optics. If anything helps, then it's good. EG. NVDA's $20B "Acqui-hire" of Groq's team and IP. LPU is more about inference latency/architecture but it addresses copper life extension as a byproduct. Groq’s entire architecture beat Nvidia on latency because it rejected optics. Groq uses a "deterministic" mesh that relies on direct electrical (copper) connections between chips, avoiding the "jitter" and conversion time of optical switches. Companies like $ALAB, $CRDO, Groq, or anyone who can find ways to engineer around the optical bottleneck with copper will be a winner. _ There are tons of trades from both private sector investments to public! Just wrote up my thoughts on the fly today, but happy to elaborate later. Regardless I believe a lot of these thematic investments from: Investing in InQ Bottleneck Workarounds ( $POET ) or the bottleneck itself ( $AXTI ) to Disruptors ( $CRCL ) in the public sector. To Investing in copper extension bottleneck fixes (Groq), bank charter disruptors (Mercury) to evolutionary companies (Lightmatter, Festo) in the private sector. Present asymmetrical upside in 2026. Happy New Year!
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谷歌股价波动源于情绪反转，预计Marvell也会如此。
@FinansMerak137 @SaItinerant 是的，我在 $GOOGL 跌至 140 美元时做多。基本面实际上没有任何变化，这纯粹是基于对搜索业务措辞解读的情绪反转。 我预计 Marvell 也会随机出现同样的情况。
英文原文
@FinansMerak137 @SaItinerant Yeah I was long $GOOGL on the drop to $140. Literally nothing changed about the business, it was just a sentiment flip just based on how you worded search. I'd probably expect the same with Marvell randomly.
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新云板块处于验证期，当前下跌是建立护城河前的黄金买入机会。
新云(Neoclouds)正处于“证明实力”阶段。 $NBIS 的年经常性收入(ARR)增长率高达700%+，达到70-90亿美元；$IREN 的数据也超过34亿美元。 许多公司拥有多年的收入可见性，并得到七大科技巨头(Mag7)超大规模云服务商的背书。 然而，市场表示： “这不是一个无限刷钱的漏洞”。 即股价上涨 -> 可转换票据/稀释 -> ARR增加 -> 循环往复。 它们现在都有资金，$NBIS 持有48亿美元以上的现金储备，$IREN 持有来自 $MSFT 预付款/票据的数十亿美元以完成建设并转化为自由现金流(FCF)。 尽管有《加速推进电气化法案(SPEED Act)》通过、OpenAI融资（降低交易对手风险）以及降息等顺风因素，但近期的下跌趋势似乎是年底税务收割、做空、主动式自动取款机(ATM)增发以及主要是： 等待证明这些公司能否从 $MSFT 与 IREN 的交易到 Nebius 的杠杆内部收益率(IRR)预测中，实现规模化的利润率。这似乎归结为执行力和等待下一次财报。 许多散户投资者在此期间似乎已经投降，但机构持股比例仅上升（$NBIS 从30%多升至50%以上）。 但非对称性就在这里： 如果 Nebius 管理层能实现20-30%的息税前利润(EBIT)利润率并达到70-90亿美元的 ARR 目标，那么在保守分析师给出200美元以上目标价(PT)的情况下，85美元的价格显得极其、极其低估。特别是考虑到 Clickhouse 的扩张/IPO 以及 Avride 与 Uber 合作的自动驾驶出租车规模化。 我在主题上也特别看好 $IREN 在微软交易上的杠杆 IRR 预测，以及来自 $CIFR / $WULF 与 $GOOGL 交易的新云数据中心(Colo)玩家。 简而言之：如果新云能在其预测的利润率、规模上执行到位，并在这2-3年的窗口期内建立自己的护城河，那么整个板块的抛售似乎是一个黄金机会。
英文原文
Neoclouds are in the "Prove It" phase. You have absurd 700%+ ARR growth rates to $7-9B from $NBIS and $3.4B+ figures from $IREN. Many have multiple year revenue visibility and backstop from Mag7 Hyperscalers. However, markets have said: "This is not an infinite money glitch". Where a stock goes up -> convertible note/dilution -> ARR increases -> repeat. They all have funding now, $NBIS sitting on a $4.8B+ cash stack, $IREN sitting on billions from $MSFT prepayment/notes to finish their buildout and turn that into FCF. Despite tailwinds from the initial SPEED act passing, OpenAI fundraising (for less counterpaty risk), and rate cuts, the recent downtrend seems to combine EoY tax harvesting with short selling, active ATMs, and mainly: Waiting for proof that these companies can deliver margins at scale from levered IRR projections on $MSFT's IREN deal to Nebius. It seems to comes down to execution and waiting for their next earnings report. Many retail investors seem to have capitulated during this time but institutional ownership has only gone up (30's from $NBIS to 50's+ now) But here's where the asymmetry comes in: If Nebius management scales to 20-30% EBIT margins with their $7-9B ARR target, this seems incredibly, incredibly off at $85 when conservative analysts are throwing out $200+ PTs. Especially considering possible Clickhouse ramp/IPO and Avride robotaxi scaling with Uber. I'm especially bullish thematically too with $IREN levered IRR projections on the Microsoft deal and Neocloud colo players from $CIFR / $WULF $GOOGL deals. TLDR: If Neoclouds can execute with their projected margins, scale, and create their own moats during this 2-3 year window, then the whole sector selloff seems like a golden opportunity.
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解析AI供应链各环节标的风险收益特征，推荐TSM稳健、AXTI高弹性、NBIS高成长。
感谢关注！我来简单拆解一下：我看好金融科技(Fintech)和人工智能(AI)，这是我的两个主要成长型投资板块。像 $CRCL 这样的稳定币(Stablecoins)属于金融科技领域。至于 AI 领域，我专注于供应链投资： 新云厂商(Neoclouds) -> AI 顶层消费者/超大规模云提供商。$NBIS 是我的最爱。 顺着供应链往下，谁帮助制造 $NBIS 和 $IREN 购买的 GPU？ -> 来自 $NVDA 的 GPU，部分 $AMD，以及未来可能来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 的 ASIC。 谁帮助生产这些 GPU？ -> $TSM 谁帮助在数据中心扩展这些 GPU 集群？ -> $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 用于生产扩展 GPU 集群所需互连件的原材料是什么？ -> $AXTI 它们都主题性地搭乘 AI 资本支出(CapEx)浪潮，但敞口各不相同。 我通常不会说“1”，因为它们的风险特征不同。 如果必须为复利增长选择最安全的一个：$TSM 如果必须选择 6 个月内潜在上行空间最大的一个？$AXTI 可能因材料短缺而受益，但如果中国封锁出口也可能归零。 如果必须选择 2 年内最有可能实现 5-10 倍增长并成为超大规模云厂商的一个？$NBIS。但存在稀释风险，自动取款机(ATM)发行可能导致股价停滞数月，但从 70-90 亿 ARR 和 20% EBIT 的未来前景来看，长期非对称上行空间最大。 当然，如果 AI 资本支出浪潮放缓，它们都会下跌，因此分散投资于金融科技等其他板块是明智的。
英文原文
Thanks for following along! I'll just give you a breakdown: I like Fintech and AI, those are basically my two main growth investment baskets. Stablecoins like $CRCL are in the fintech domain. As for AI domain I am just supply chain investing: Neoclouds -> Top level consumer/hyperscaler cloud providers for AI. $NBIS is my favorite. Go down the supply chain, who helps manufacture the GPUs used that $NBIS and $IREN buy? -> GPUs from $NVDA, some $AMD, and maybe ASICs from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN down the road. Who helps create those GPUs -> $TSM Who helps scale up those GPU clusters in data centers? -> $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI What are those raw materials used to produce the interconnects to scale up those GPU clusters? -> $AXTI They're all ride the AI CapEx wave thematically, but the exposure is all different. I never typically never say "1" because they all have different risk-profiles. if I had to choose the safest one for just compounding: $TSM If I had to choose the one with the highest possible upside over 6 months? $AXTI from material shock, but it could also go to 0 if China blocks exports. If I had to choose the best chance to 5-10x and become a hyperscaler over 2 years? $NBIS. But there's risks from dilution, ATMs stalling out the stock for a few months, but highest asymmetrical upside over periods of time from 7-9B arr 20% ebit in the future But of course, if AI CapEx wave slows, then they all go down, which it's good to diversify in other segments like fintech.
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分析InP材料供应瓶颈，通过历史案例说明关键材料博弈论，预判超大规模云商将抢购InP衬底产能。
当我发WSB帖子时，我半开玩笑地提到$AXTI。但对于极端瓶颈和InP供应冲击，我可不是开玩笑的。这是一个关于关键材料博弈论的呼唤。 如果我们回顾历史上许多瓶颈案例： 1. 镝(Dysprosium)：约2300%涨幅（约$100/kg -> $2400/kg，2010-11年） 2. 氖气(Neon Gas)：约1000%-2000%涨幅（2022年） 3. 铑(Rhodium)：约$3,000/盎司 -> 约$29,000/盎司（约860%） 当前铟(In)的价格涨幅与其他材料相比如何？ 89%：（约$440/kg -> 约$832/kg）。 用于半导体的关键材料（如用于光刻激光器的氖气），因为芯片制造商如英特尔和三星在乌克兰冲突期间进行了储备，价格暴涨超过2000%。他们吸收了成本，因为氖气只占芯片价值的一小部分。 与氖气一样，磷化铟(InP)是一种关键的"赋能"材料。晶圆成本相对于AI集群成本（$100的晶圆对比$30,000的GPU）来说很小。超大规模云商宁愿吸收巨大的价格上涨，也不愿延迟部署。InP目前还没有出现这种情况，但我们很可能会看到。 传统分析师和许多AI模型不知道如何建模关键瓶颈，因为历史上很少有这样的案例：一种极其廉价的商品（如InP，TAM只有几亿美元）突然成为价值数万亿美元的AI建设中最关键的材料。 目前，超大规模云商可能已经向下游供应商Coherent/$LITE下了订单，但可能没有意识到激光器生产和产能受到上游材料短缺的制约而排满。 InP衬底（$AXTI + Sumitomo + JX生产）和磷化铟原料（$AXTI、Vital、$DOWA）都存在供应储备，需求超过供应数倍。 $NVDA最初通过锁定EML大量产能加剧了供应短缺。但短缺早在超大规模云商扩产之前就已经存在，大部分需求将在2026年底至2027年Trainium或Maia出现时涌入。 但如何绕过原始瓶颈并确保AI部署？ 直接从（$AXTI、Sumitomo）购买衬底产能，或者更进一层，购买InP原料并将其交给衬底生产商，以确保谷歌的TPU项目不会停滞。 与其他关键材料（如氖气用于光刻激光器）类似，磷化铟和InP衬底对整个AI建设更为关键： 1. Nvidia：InfiniBand / NVLink（光学 - 800G/1.6T EML光模块）- 对InP高度依赖 2. Google：Jupiter / Apollo（光学 - OCS），高度依赖 3. Microsoft：Azure Maia：高（800G DR4/FR4） 4. Meta：F16 / Artemis（800G）高 这还不包括其他Mag7公司如$AMZN或使用光子技术扩展ASIC的其他公司。 目前，分析师基于TAM对InP公司进行建模。例如，2024年InP晶圆市场总规模为$183M-$205M（Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence，2024年） - 6英寸（150mm）细分市场TAM：$65M - 预计2032年InP总TAM：$580M-$700M 现在看激光级磷化铟原料的TAM： - 多晶InP原料TAM：约$3亿 - 高纯度铟（6N/7N）仅：约$4亿 衬底数据：Mordor Intelligence（InP晶圆市场2025-2030）和Straits Research。 原料数据：Market Report Analytics（磷化铟多晶行业分析2025）。 这是一种极其便宜的电信产品，现在成为整个供应链中最珍贵的材料之一。 价格上涨3000%只会占$GOOGL TPU部署或$MSFT MAIA部署BOM值的低个位数。而仅微软2027年的扩产就会占用全部InP产能的两位数百分比。 就像2022年的英特尔或半导体行业一样，超大规模云商可能会像当时囤积氖气一样，直接购买InP衬底+InP作为"保险"。 如果"TAM"实际上只有几亿美元，但每个超大规模云商如果不确保这种材料就会面临部署延迟，那么这就变成了一场博弈论竞标战。 在一个因$100衬底而停滞的价值$200亿的TPU部署中，超大规模云商会毫不犹豫地支付$10,000（比当前价格高出100倍）。 这就是为什么当你看到InP衬底公司有$5000万订单积压（来自2024年），同样的$5000万产能对未来来说在极端情况下可能价值$5亿、$50亿甚至更多。 这是一个"尾部风险"投资，如果超大规模云商被这种材料卡住，回报是极高的，但并非没有重大的地缘政治风险和稀释。 我不知道会发生什么，但我预计2026年InP衬底和InP原料都会出现巨大瓶颈。 那么，如果像$AXTI这样的公司拥有整个InP供应链40%的份额（来源：AXT CEO），而估值只有$7亿，你会给它什么估值？
英文原文
When I made my WSB post, I'm half joking about $AXTI. But not about the extreme bottleneck and InP supply shock. This is a call on critical materials game theory. If we see many historically at bottlenecks: 1. Dysprosium: ~2,300% increase (~$100/kg -> $2400/kg 2010-11) 2. Neon Gas: ~1000%-2,000% increase (2022) 3. Rhodium: ~$3,000/oz -> ~$29,000/oz (~860%) The current Indium spike compared to others? 89% : (~$440 / kg -> ~$832 / kg). Critical materials used for semiconductors like Neon Gas (semi-grade lithography lasers), spiked over 2000% because chipmakers like Intel and Samsung had stockpiled during Ukraine conflicts. They absorbed the cost because neon is a small fraction of the chip's value. Like Neon, InP is a critical "enabler" material. The cost of the wafer is small relative to the cost of the AI cluster ($100 wafer vs $30,000 GPU). Hyperscalers would happily absorb huge price increases rather than delay deployment. We haven't seen that yet with InP, but we likely will. Traditional analysts and many AI Models do not understand how to model critical bottlenecks because there's not many examples in history where an extremely cheap commodity like InP with few hundred million TAM suddenly became the most critical material for the multi-trillion+ AI buildout. Currently, hyperscalers likely placed backlogs on downstream providers Coherent / $LITE, but likely didn't realize that laser production and capacity are backlogged because of materials shortage upstream. There is a supply storage both for InP substrates ( $AXTI + Sumitomo + JX production) as well as the Indium Phosphide feedstock ( $AXTI, Vital, $DOWA) where demand exceeds supply by multiple factors. $NVDA originally contributed to the supply shortage by locking in a large percent of capacity of EML. But shortage is already pre-hyperscaler ramp, where majority of the demand will come in late 2026 into 2027 when Trainium or Maia show up. But how do you get around original chokepoint and securing your AI deployment? Buying out substrate capacity directly from ( $AXTI, Sumitomo) or going one step lower and buying InP feedstock and passing them to substrate producers so Google's TPU program doesn't stall. And similar to how other critical materials were needed for lithography lasers. Indium Phopshide and InP substates are even more critical to the entire AI buildout: 1. Nvidia: InfiniBand / NVLink (optical - 800G/1.6T EML Transceivers) - Extreme dependency on InP 2. Google: Jupiter / Apollo (optical - OCS), Extreme dependency 3. Microsoft: Azure Maia: High (800G DR4/FR4) 4. Meta: F16 / Artemis (800G) High and this is not considering other Mag7 companies like $AMZN or other companies scaling out ASICs with photonics. Currently, analysts are modeling InP companies based on TAM. For example, the total InP Wafer Market from 2024 is $183M – $205M Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence (2024) - 6-inch (150mm) Segment TAM: $65m - Projected Total InP TAM (2032): $580M – $700M Now looking at TAM for Laser-Grade Indium Phosphide Feedstock: - Polycrystalline InP Feedstock TAM: ~$300 Million - High-Purity Indium (6N/7N) Only: ~$400 Million Substrate Data: Mordor Intelligence (InP Wafer Market 2025-2030) and Straits Research. Feedstock Data: Market Report Analytics (Indium Phosphide Polycrystalline Industry Analysis 2025). This was an extremely cheap telecom product and now it's one of the most precious materials in the entire supply chain. Increasing prices 3000% would only be low single digits of BOM value to $GOOGL TPU deployments or $MSFT MAIA deployments. And the project Microsoft ramp in 2027 alone would take up double digits of all InP capacity. Like Intel or semis back in 2022, hyperscalers will likely buy insurance directly with InP substrates + InP, similar to how semis stockpiled Neon Gas. If the "TAM" really was a few hundred million, but every single hyperscaler would face deployment delays if they don't secure this material. Then this becomes a game theory bidding war. In a $20B TPU deployment is stalled because of a $100 substrate, a hyperscaler would easily pay $10,000 (100 times current prices) for it without hesitation. That's why when you look at InP substrate companies and see $50m backlog (from 2024), that same $50m worth of capacity for future ones could be valued at $500m, $5B or more in an extreme scenario. This is a "tail-risk" investment, extremely reward if hyperscalers get bottlenecked by this material, but not without significant geopolitical risk and dilution. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do expect there to be an immense bottleneck in 2026 both in InP substrates and InP feedstock. So, if companies like $AXTI owns 40% of the entire InP supply chain (source: AXT CEO) and is valued at $700m, what value would you place on it?
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对比住友与AXTI在磷化铟供应链中的地位及风险。
住友电气(Sumitomo)受磷化铟(InP)价格上涨影响，但如果$GOOGL直接向$DOWA或其他供应商采购原料，其影响将减弱。 $AXTI拥有完整的供应链，并占据激光级磷化铟的巨大份额。但明显的下行风险是中国出口管制。 不过住友电气体量巨大，因此你获得的并非最直接的敞口。
英文原文
Sumitomo is subject to hikes in InP prices though if $GOOGL goes direct to $DOWA or others for feedstock. $AXTI owns the whole supply chain, and a huge portion of laser grade inp. But downside is obviously anuke from China exports. Sumitomo Electric is huge though so you’re not exactly getting the most direct exposure.
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分析AXTI/中国磷化铟瓶颈对AI供应链的致命影响及关键材料估值逻辑。
这是一份关于 $AXTI/中国 在衬底生产和激光级磷化铟方面导致整个 AI 基础设施建设出现单点故障的研究笔记。我并未对个别公司进行估值分析。但如果这一流程中断，$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 乃至 $GOOGL、$MSFT 都将面临极端的延迟。如果你们感兴趣，我会另写一篇文章关于如何对关键材料瓶颈进行估值。基本上，如果 2024 年的积压订单为 5000 万美元，而总可寻址市场 (TAM) 为 1.5 亿美元。而现在，由于它是关键材料，如果谷歌愿意为此支付 50 倍的溢价（仅为保持生存而增加 BOM 成本的百分之几），那么原本 5000 万美元积压订单的估值逻辑就会转变为未来产能的 25 亿美元。
英文原文
This is a research note on point failure of the entire AI buildout in $AXTI/China from both substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide. I’m not doing valuation analysis on individual companies But if this flow stops, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO to $GOOGL, $MSFT faces extreme delays. I’ll write something else about valuing critical material bottlenecks if you want. But basically if a backlog was $50m from 2024 and TAM was $150m. And now because it’s a critical material, if Google would be willing to pay 50 times that (only a few percent increase on BOM cost to stay alive), then the valuation math of that original $50m backlog -> $2.5B for future capacity changes.
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AI光互连依赖磷化铟，其原料78%在中国，AXTI成关键瓶颈。
“瓶颈中的瓶颈”：磷化铟(InP) $AXTI 和 $SMTOY 构成双寡头。它们控制了全球 60% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底，是 AI 建设的关键瓶颈。 更令人警觉的是：这依赖于磷化铟(InP)。 磷化铟(InP)是垄断市场。78% 由 $AXTI 和中国控制。 这就是“瓶颈中的瓶颈”： 磷化铟(InP)衬底市场已是日本和中国实体之间的双寡头。然而，上游激光级原料（如住友所需）的生产主要由 $AXTI（再次出现）和中国公司主导。 主要问题在于： AI 行业极度依赖光子学来实现规模化。无论收发器是“基于磷化铟”还是“基于硅”，光源始终是：磷化铟(InP)。 随着 AI 集群从 1 万颗 GPU 扩展到 10 万颗以上，“铜缆瓶颈”迫使全面转向光互连。这使得磷化铟(InP)对 AI 规模化的重要性超过几乎任何其他单一材料。 此外，激光级原料纯度必须至少达到 6N（99.9999%）。即使是微量杂质（硅、硫、锌）也不像 LED 等其他领域那样可接受。大多数研究可能混淆了激光级原料与普通磷化铟产出。 住友是磷化铟衬底市场最著名的名字。他们在高端激光衬底领域占据巨大市场份额。但贸易数据显示，他们越来越依赖来自 $DOWA 和中国公司的外部磷化铟原料。（由于自有回收和储备，他们可能仍被计入原料所有权列表中） 所以，如果认为整个西方 AI 建设因有一家日本公司作为双寡头之一而感到安全，请三思。 瓶颈的源头被 $AXTI 和中国供应商所瓶颈。 如果我们看生产，以下是深度研究估算的控制权分布： Vital Materials - 35%（现货市场） - Vital 在 2020 年收购凡亚金属交易所库存（3600 吨铟），使其掌控全球铟市场。他们利用这一优势成为最大的磷化铟多晶生产商。主导成本领先者；控制原生铟供应（凡亚库存）。 $AXTI - 25%（北京同美晶体技术） - 主要自给自足。其大部分多晶生产被自家晶体生长炉消耗以制造晶圆。但他们也向现货市场销售原材料和化合物，是混合型玩家。 他们是全球唯一从矿山、精炼厂到磷化铟衬底产出的公司，鉴于他们同时拥有原材料和磷化铟衬底控制权，这是一个绝对疯狂的瓶颈。供应自家晶圆生产；关键的非日本来源。 株洲科能新材料 - 18% - 科能实现了“磷化铟多晶量产”并拥有“高度集成的自动多晶生产能力”。他们是中国铟出口配额的关键接收方。纯合成专家；主要出口商。 然后外部： $DOWA - 12% - 西方公司中最大的供应商（是的，日本）。在采矿（秋田锌）方面根基深厚，因此是高纯度金属有机化合物和化合物的领先供应商。 “日本企业”（住友、JX）的“来源” Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - IQE plc 的子公司。对于需要非中国原料的北约联盟供应链来说，这是关键战略资产，尽管他们目前正在进行资产清算。 InPACT（法国）- 3% - InPACT 称他们通过高压合成的水平梯度凝固(HGF)生产多晶锭，以满足（诺基亚、爱立信）和一些欧洲国防部门的要求。 世界其他地区 - 2% 这包括主要衬底制造商（Coherent、住友）、小规模研究生产以及试图打破垄断的韩国或台湾新兴玩家。 现实是，全球 78% 的激光级磷化铟原料产能位于中国。 光组件的需求已经以数倍超过供应/生产。这还是在上量之前。整个 AI 建设被两家公司瓶颈。 但 1/4 的材料来自：$AXTI。而约 1/3 的磷化铟衬底产出再次来自激光级原料。 整个 AI 建设依赖于一家随机的 7 亿美元公司，它既是瓶颈中的瓶颈，也是瓶颈本身。 扩大磷化铟衬底和激光级原料的生产既是国家安全问题。
英文原文
"Bottleneck within a Bottleneck": Indium Phosphide $AXTI | $SMTOY is a duopoly. They control 60%+ of the world's InP substrates as the bottleneck of the AI buildout. What's even more alarming? This is dependent on: Indium Phosphide. InP is a Monopoly. 78% control by $AXTI / China. Here's the bottleneck within a bottleneck: The InP substrates is already a duopoly between Japanese and Chinese entities. However, upstream production of laser-grade feedstock required by companies like Sumitomo is dominated by $AXTI (again) and Chinese companies. Here's the major issue: The AI industry is extremely reliant on photonics to scale. Whether, transceivers are "InP-based" or "Silicon-based" the photon source remains: Indium Phosphide. As AI clusters move from 10,000 to 100,000+ GPUs, the "copper bottleneck" is forcing a total shift to optical interconnects. This makes InP more critical to AI scaling than almost any other single material. On top of that, laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. And most research probably confuses laser-grade feedstock with regular InP outputs. Sumitomo is arguably the most famous name in the InP substrate market. They hold a massive market share in the high-end laser substrate segment. Yet trade data suggest they are increasingly reliant on external feedstock for Indium Phosphide from companies like $DOWA and from China. (They're likely still included in feedstock ownership lists bc of captive recycling and reserves) So if the entire Western AI buildout feels safe regarding a Japanese company as a duopoly, think again. The source of the bottleneck is bottlenecked by Chinese suppliers like $AXTI and Chinese companies. If we look at production there's are estimates from deep research breakdown of estimate controls: Vital Materials - 35% (Merchant) - Vital acquired Fanya Metal Exchange inventory (3,600 tonnes of Indium) in 2020 gave them large control over the global Indium market. They have leveraged this to become the largest producer of InP polycrystal. Dominant cost leader; controls raw Indium supply (Fanya stocks). $AXTI - 25% (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology) - Primarily Captive. Most of their polycrystal production is consumed by their own crystal growth furnaces to make wafers. However, they also sell raw materials and compounds to the merchant market, making them a hybrid player. They're the only company in the world that goes from mines, refineries -> InP substrate output, which is an absolutely crazy bottleneck given they own both the raw materials into InP substrate controls. Feeds own wafer production; key non-Japan source. Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18% - Keneng has achieved "mass production of polycrystalline indium phosphide" and possesses "highly integrated automatic polycrystalline production capacity". They are a key recipient of China's export quotas for Indium. Pure-play synthesis specialist; major exporter. Then Outside: $DOWA - 12% - The biggest supplier out of any Western company (yeah Japanese). Deep roots in mining (Akita Zinc), so they're the leading supplier of high-purity metal organics and compounds. The "source" for Japan Inc. (Sumitomo, JX) Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - A subsidiary of IQE plc. Critical strategic asset for NATO-aligned supply chains that require non-Chinese feedstock, even though they're going through asset liquidations right now. InPACT (France) - 3% - InPACT states they produce polycrystalline ingots via Horizontal Gradient Freeze (HGF) using high-pressure synthesis so they meet requirements from (Nokia, Ericsson) and some European defense sectors. Rest of World - 2% This includes major substrate makers (Coherent, Sumitomo), small-scale research production, and emerging players in Korea or Taiwan who are attempting to break the monopoly. The reality is that 78% of the global capacity for laser-grade InP feedstock is located in China. The demand for optical components already exceeds supply/production by multiple factors. This is pre-ramp too. The entire AI buildout is bottlenecked by two companies. But 1/4th of the materials comes from: $AXTI. And ~1/3rd of InP Substrate outputs again comes from laser-grade feedstock. The entire AI buildout is dependent on some random $700m company that serves as both the bottleneck of a bottleneck and the bottleneck. It's both national security issue to scale up InP production both for substrate and laser-grade feedstock.
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AI供应链瓶颈类似当年锂和HBM，衬底及关键组件面临短缺与估值难题。
同意，对于交易者而言，这应该是一个有趣的机会，就像2021年电动车兴起时的锂，或者当前SK海力士和美光的高带宽内存(HBM)，如果人们能早期识别瓶颈的话。 机会众多（$AAOI尽管获得新的超大规模客户订单，年初至今仅上涨2.9%。这与Maia/Tranium等超大规模客户的部署挂钩）。 $MRVL需求极度旺盛，但主要来自Maia在2026年第四季度至2027年的需求，年初至今下跌22%。$POET作为$MRVL扩产的间接受益者。 磷化铟(InP)衬底在整个供应链中普遍短缺。$GOOGL加速TPU部署，利好$LITE，以及$COHR的垂直整合+创纪录积压订单。 像$AXTI这样极其荒谬的玩家，市值仅7亿美元，却几乎是未来AI扩产的单点故障(SPOF)。真不知道该如何给这个估值，哈哈。 $COHR、$LITE和衬底供应商现在正触及产能极限。我们将看到这需要多长时间才能达到像内存那样的极端程度。
英文原文
Agreed, for traders, this should be an interesting opportunity like Lithium in 2021 when EVs came about or HBM currently with Sk Hynix and Micron if people recognized the bottlenecks early. Tons of opportunity ($AAOI only up 2.9% YTD despite new hyperscaler orders. Tied to hyperscaler deployments like Maia/Tranium). $MRVL with extreme demand but mainly in q4 2026, into 2027 from Maia, down 22% YTD. And $POET as an indirect beneficiary of $MRVL ramp too. Shortages throughout the entire supply chain with InP substrates. $GOOGL ramping up TPU which benefits $LITE and vertical integration + record backlog from $COHR Extremely absurd players like $AXTI with a $700m marketcap basically being the single point of failure for the future AI ramp. Not quite sure how you place a value on that lol. $COHR, $LITE and substrate providers are hitting the capacity limits now. We’ll see how much time it takes for his to go to the extremes like memory.
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InP衬底成AI光互连瓶颈，$AXTI/$SMTOY掌控命脉，2026年或致供应链危机。
“磷化铟(InP)瓶颈”：AI基础设施建设的关键瓶颈解析： $NVDA Blackwell、$META MTAI、$GOOGL TPU 和 $MSFT Maia 的产能爬坡，其未来取决于两家市值仅7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。 如果无法解决 InP 问题，AI“增长”故事将在2026年终结。 原因如下： AI行业正开始向光子学迁移，以部署未来的 ASIC/GPU，因为铜互连已触及物理极限。 然而，超大规模云服务商在这样做时，却将命运押注在了 InP（磷化铟）这一通用材料上，而全球仅有少数工厂能以激光器所需的纯度生产6英寸 InP 晶圆。 以 Google 及其 TPU v7 Ironwood 项目为例： Google 使用光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching, OCS)，简单来说就是由光构成的交换机。Pod 中的每一个 TPU 进行通信都需要基于 InP 的激光器。与 Google 合作的 $LITE 在很大程度上依赖 InP 衬底（如 AXT/住友）来制造这些激光器。 如果没有这些衬底，Google 的整个 Ironwood 项目不仅仅是“放缓”，而是会直接撞墙。 来自 $NVDA GB 系列、$AMZN Trainium、$MSFT Maia、$META MTAI 的现代 ASIC/GPU 都做出了同样的押注：光是未来的方向。 现在，问题出现了。 整个西方 AI 路线图目前都系于一家市值7亿美元的小盘股和一家单一的日本公司，它们生产了全球光子学所需的大部分 InP 衬底。 目前这是一个双寡头格局（粗略估计 AXT + 住友供应约60%），最近的估计显示约70%+的供应来自住友电气、AXT、Freiberger、JX 和 Visual Photonics Epitaxy（填补剩余缺口）。 无论如何，整个未来的 AI 供应链细如针尖： - Moomoo 研究：InP 市场处于“全球争夺”和“严重供应短缺”状态，NVIDIA GB200 的推出（扩展仍需大量 InP，不仅仅是机架内的 NVL72 通信）。 - 高速收发器的需求目前可能超过供应近两倍（LightCounting） - 看到创纪录的预订，但明确“受限于 InP 激光器的供应”（$COHR CEO Q3 财报电话会） - 麦肯锡：800G 模块存在 40% 到 60% 的缺口，1.6T 模块存在 30% 到 40% 的缺口。 鉴于需求的激增，这些报告可能理解得过于保守。即使按照微软对 Maia 爬坡的预测（据 UBS $MRVL 笔记，2027年 Maia 估计超过100万台），加上未来一年超过200万台 1.6T 收发器，这一体量如此之大，代表了全球衬底产量的双位数百分比。 AI 预期的“指数级增长”即将与关键材料生产的现实发生碰撞。因此，“Ironwood”、“MTIA”和“Maia”的爬坡不仅雄心勃勃，在当前材料限制下可能根本不可能实现。 即使 $COHR、JX 日本、住友、$AXTI 等以最大产能扩产（例如 $COHR / JX -> 6英寸 InP 晶圆产能提升4倍），他们可能仍无法满足超大规模云服务商日益增长的需求。特别是考虑到需求激增，例如仅 $NVDA 自身（GB200/GB300 修订版）的需求。 硅光子学等技术解决方案可以弥合差距，但这仍然主要需要外置 InP 激光器作为光源。TFLN 或量子点激光器还需要很多年才能成熟。 未来几年可能无法摆脱对 InP 的需求。 因此，芯片设计与材料可用性之间的错配创造了一个战略瓶颈，在供应链的最底层，极少数公司控制了大部分配额、定价和供应。当叠加美中关系紧张和出口管制的地缘政治风险时，这尤其危险。 话虽如此，以下是可能发生的事情： - 价格飙升：$AXTI、JX、住友的价格将大幅飙升 -> $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创（也会通过下游传导提高价格） - 超大规模云服务商将直接囤积材料，绕过传统组件采购，直接从 $AXTI、JX 日本、住友购买 InP 衬底库存，并直接委托给像 $LITE 这样的收发器制造商。 （例如，Meta 将绕过收发器公司，直接去找 AXT 或住友） - 超大规模云服务商将买断生产配额（就像 $NVDA 已经积极“锁定”EML 产能（在 InP 衬底上制造）那样）。 购买衬底制造商或生产配额将成为一种必要，以免被 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 等竞争对手饿死。 随着 TPU v7 和其他超大规模云服务商在 2026-2027 年爬坡，我们可能会进入衬底的“饥饿游戏”阶段，每个超大规模云服务商都将为了资源配额而相互吞噬对方的增长。 像 $NVDA（拥有创纪录的预分配量）这样的公司可能暂时没事，但其他项目可能会面临重大延误。 思考： 1. 一些超大规模云服务商可能没事（$NVDA）。其他如 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 需要在其他人之前买断材料和配额。 2. 行业需要加倍投入工程转型，如延长铜的使用寿命和更节省材料的方式如硅光子学(SiPh)。 3. 转向6英寸晶圆以提高良率（能缓解情况，但仍不足以满足需求） 因此，现状是，数万亿美元的 AI 扩展系于一些不起眼的7亿美元公司 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。除非架构改变，否则 AI 似乎不可避免地会因 InP 衬底产能而触及物理天花板。 2024年的瓶颈是 GPU。2025年是 HBM。2026年，主要约束很可能是光互连，特别是驱动它们的 InP 衬底。 这已成为 AI 基础设施建设中隐藏的瓶颈。
英文原文
The "InP Chokepoint": The Bottleneck of the AI Buildout explanation: The future of $NVDA Blackwell, $META MTAI, $GOOGL TPU, and $MSFT Maia ramp is tied to: A $700M small cap $AXTI and $SMTOY. The AI "Growth" story ends in 2026 if there's no solution to InP. Here's why: The AI industry started its migrating to photonics for future ASIC/GPU deployments, because copper is hitting a physical limit. However, in doing so, hyperscalers traded the common material for InP (Indium Phosphide), when there's only a few factories capable of producing 6-inch InP wafers at the purity levels required for lasers. Let's take for example Google and their TPU v7 Ironwood program: Google uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), in simpler terms, switchboards made of light. For every one of those TPUs in the pod to talk, they require InP-based lasers. $LITE, which works with Google on this, largely depends on InP substrate (eg. AXT/Sumitomo) to make them. If they don't have it Google's entire Ironwood program doesn't just "slow down", it hits the wall. Modern ASICs/GPUs from $NVDA GB series, $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, $META MTAI have all made the same bet: Light is the way forward. Now, here's the issue. The entire Western AI roadmap is currently tethered to a $700M small-cap and a single Japanese company that produce majority of the world's InP substrates required for photonics. It's currently a duopoly (rough estimates majority supply ~60% between AXT + Sumitomo), with recent estimates of ~70%+ coming from Sumitomo Electric, AXT, Freiberger, JX, and Visual Photonics Epitaxy (filling in the gaps). Regardless, the entire future AI supply chain is thinner than a needle: - Moomoo Research: InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage" NVIDIA GB200 rollout (scale-out still requires tons of InP, not NVL72 within-the-rack comm). - Demand for high-speed transceivers today probably exceeds the supply by almost a factor of two (LightCounting) - Seeing record booking, but explicitly "supply-constrained by InP lasers" ( $COHR CEO Q3 ER) - McKinsey: 40% to 60% shortfall for 800G modules and a 30% to 40% shortfall for 1.6T modules. And these reports are likely understanding + very conserative given the demand ramp. Even going off Microsoft's projections on Maia ramp, ( est. 1M+ Maia by 2027 on UBS $MRVL note), with 2 million+ units of 1.6T transceivers over the next year, this volume is so large it represents a double-digit percentage of global substrate output. The projected "exponential growth" of AI is about to collide with the reality of critical material production. So, the "Ironwood", "MTIA" and "Maia" ramps aren't just ambitious, they may be impossible under current material constraints. Even if $COHR, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, $AXTI, and others, ramp up at maximum capacity (eg. $COHR / JX -> 6-inch InP wafers for 4x capacity), they still might not be able to meet the increasing demand from hyperscalers. Especailly with demand spikes occurring, eg. just for $NVDA alone (GB200/GB300 revisions). There are technical solutions like silicon photonics is one solution to bridge the gap, but this still largely requires an external InP laser as the light source. TFLN or quantum dot lasers are many many years away. There's probably no escaping the InP requirements for the next few years. So, the mismatch between chip design and material availability has created a strategic chokepoint, where if you go to the very bottom of the supply chain, very few companies control a majority of allocations, pricing, and supply. This is especially dangerous when compounded with geopolitical risks on US/China relations + export controls. That being said, here's what's probably what's going to happen: - Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight (also increases prices from pass down) - Hyperscalers will directly stockpile materials, bypassing traditional component procurement and buying InP substrate inventory from $AXTI, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, and directly to consign to transceiver manufacturers like $LITE. (eg. Meta would bypass transceiver companies and go directly to AXT or Sumitomo) - Hyperscalers will buy out production allocation ( like $NVDA that has already aggressively "locked in" EML capacity (manufactured on InP substrates). Buying a substrate manufacturer or production allocation would become a necessity to so others like $NVDA or $GOOGL doesn't starve them out. As TPU v7 and and as other hyperscalers ramp up in 2026-2027, we will likely enter a "hunger games" phase for substrates where only each hyperscaler will be cannibalizing each other's growth for resource allocation. Companies like $NVDA (with record amounts of pre-allocation), might ramp be okay for the time being, but others programs would likely face major delays. Thoughts: 1. Some hyperscalers might be fine ( $NVDA). Others like $GOOGL and $MSFT will need to buy out materials + allocation before others do. 2. Industry needs to double down on engineering shifts like copper life extension and more material efficient ways like SiPh. 3. Move to 6-inch wafers for yields (eases things, but still not enough to meet demand) So the way things are now, the multi-trillion dollar AI scaling are tethered to some obscure $700m company $AXTI and $SMTOY. It seems inevitable that AI will hit the physical ceiling because of InP substrate capacity unless architectures change. In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it was HBM. In 2026, the primary constraint will likely be the optical interconnect, and specifically, the InP substrates that power them. This has now become the hidden bottleneck of the AI buildout.
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AXTI和住友垄断InP衬底，或成AI光子化最大瓶颈。
警告：整个AI行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN等超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于InP的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用电吸收调制激光器(EML)用于800G/1.6T光模块、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 没有InP衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球InP衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光器件（TPU集群等） - 光模块（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（英伟达未来的共封装光学(CPO)和英特尔/博通硅光子学引擎使用InP连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友（估计~30%） - JX日本（估计10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电气+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的InP衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，InP衬底可能会成为与高带宽内存(HBM)并列的最大瓶颈之一。
英文原文
Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.
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InP成2026新瓶颈，市场重估AAOI与LITE在超大规模云ASIC中的价值。
$AAOI 自今日发布论点以来上涨 24%，$LITE 上涨 5%。 从物料清单(BOM)分析来看，LITE（市值 270 亿美元）因光路交换(OCS)技术而向 TPU Ironwood 倾斜，同时也受益于 NVDA 及所有专用集成电路(ASIC)。 AAOI（市值 25 亿美元）则主要受益于 MSFT MAIA 的量产爬坡和 Amazon Trainium。 磷化铟(InP)就像高带宽内存(HBM)一样，将成为 2026 年的瓶颈，因为它们是这些部署中激光器使用的基础材料。 类似于美光和 SK 海力士的内存瓶颈，市场注意力可能会转向 InP 晶圆厂，例如 $AAOI，它是美国少数几家此类工厂之一（还有 COHR, Macom）。 但相比之下，$LITE 由于 Google TPU 的成功（来自 Meta 和 Anthropic 的采购订单），今年迄今(YTD)已上涨 362%，而 $AAOI 今年迄今仅上涨 7%。 我们主要看到这种情况是因为散户或媒体对 $AMZN Trainium 或 $MSFT Maia 部署缺乏关注，这些部署预计将在 2026-2027 年大规模量产。 然而，由于每个超大规模云服务商都希望降低其自有云平台的推理成本，它们很可能都会成功。 如果我们看到其他超大规模云服务商采用 OCS 以实现 TPU 达到的优化性能，鉴于 $LITE 在该特定领域的垄断地位，预计其估值将比现在进一步提升。 然而，如果我们看到 $MSFT Maia 量产（鉴于 $AAOI 可能正在为他们开发新架构），以及 $AMZN Trainium 量产（40 亿美元权证 + 采购订单），预计 $AAOI 将重新估值。 光电子学和 InP 将成为像内存一样的新瓶颈。 我们可能会看到投资流向下游玩家，如 $COHR、中际旭创(Innolight)、$LITE，以及 2026 年针对特定超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的隐藏杠杆标的如 $AAOI 这一主题。 市场目前正在奖励 Google TPU 供应链，但可能错过了其他超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的量产机会。
英文原文
$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today. From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs. AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium. InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the foundational materials used for lasers in these deployments. Similar to memory bottlenecks with Micron and SK Hynix, we’ll likely see attention drawn to InP fabs, such as $AAOI, which happens to be one of the sole ones in America (COHR,Macom) But compared to $LITE that is up 362% YTD due to the success of Google’s TPU (from Meta and Anthropic purchase orders), $AAOI is only up 7% YTD. We’re largely seeing this because there’s a lack of retail or media attention on the $AMZN Trainium or $MSFT Maia deployments, which are largely expected to ramp up in 2026-2027. However they’re all likely to succeed due to each hyperscaler wanting to lower costs of inference for their own cloud platform. If we see other hyperscalers adopt OCS for optimized performance that the TPU achieved, expect $LITE to re-rate more than they have now given their monopoly in that specific segment. However, if we see $MSFT Maia ramp up (given $AAOI is likely developing a new architecture for them), and $AMZN Trainium ramp up ($4B warrant + purchase orders), expect $AAOI to rerate. Photonics and InP will be the new bottleneck like memory. We’ll likely see investments pour down stream to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and hidden levered plays on specific hyperscaler ASICs like $AAOI as a theme in 2026. The market is currently rewarding the Google TPU supply chain but might be missing other hyperscaler ASIC ramps.
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LITE因OCS垄断地位及供应瓶颈，受益于AI巨头需求。
$LITE 正处于“刚好合适”的黄金时刻，因为所有的 $GOOGL TPU、超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 架构都依赖它。目前他们因需求旺盛而面临供应瓶颈（类似于美光 Micron）。据我了解，光子学领域目前呈双寡头垄断格局（$COHR 和 Lite）。然而，在光电路交换(OCS)领域——这是 Google TPU 架构为实现更高性能所采用的技术——凭借专利组合和技术优势，$LITE 处于垄断地位。如果 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 最终也采用 OCS，那对 LITE 来说将是绝佳时刻。超大规模云厂商在磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂方面的垂直整合在短期内难度极大。未来几年内不太可能有人能取代他们（也许 2027-2028 年 $AVGO 的竞争会加剧），但就目前而言，他们只是受限于供应能力。
英文原文
$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron). From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite). However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE. Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.
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对比LITE与AAOI，看好AAOI在MSFT和AMZN ASIC中的重估潜力。
“太晚了”。 $LITE 是一家市值 260 亿美元的公司在未来 $GOOGL TPU 部署以及 $NVDA / $AMZN 等其他 GPU/ASIC 的核心位置。 它占据 Google TPU v7 8-12% 的物料清单(BOM)份额。这就像说当 $NVDA 市值达到 1 万亿美元时它“太晚了”一样。 但如果你想要另一个参与者，那就是 $AAOI。 $MSFT 正在 Maia ASIC 中使用它们，并且很可能正在与 $AAOI 创建一种新架构。 它们还与 $AMZN 拥有 40 亿美元的认股权证+购买协议。 所以这更像是一个做多 $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC 的玩法，但市场尚未真正关注这两家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC。 如果有任何关于这两者的利好消息，$AAOI 将极快地重估。 尽管据报道 $META 将购买大量产品，但每个人都跳上了 $GOOGL TPU 的顺风车。
英文原文
"Late". $LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs. 8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC. But if you want want another player, $AAOI. $MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI. They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN. So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet. If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast. Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.
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Lumentum凭借AI光网络垄断地位，有望随巨头资本支出增长实现市值翻倍。
$LITE 的投资逻辑：AI 领域的隐形垄断。 Lumentum 今年迄今上涨 316%，但到 2027 年可能上涨 1000%+。 美光 ($300B) 或台积电 ($1.5T) 位于每个部署的 TPU/GPU 中心。 但 $LITE 也是如此，而其市值仅为 $26B。 在谷歌的每一个 TPU 中，$LITE 为其市值创造了惊人的利润。 这是因为它是光路交换 (OCS) + 光网络的标准。 它也存在于： - $NVDA Blackwell - $AMZN Trainium - 以及其他超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 中。 Lumentum 位于光子学芯片部署的“神圣三位一体”中。 对于每笔 TPU 资本支出，$LITE 占据 8-12%。对于每个 Nvidia GPU，$LITE 占据 ~2-3%（在 InnoLight 和其他公司之间分配，所以计算有点复杂）。 仅针对 NVDA GPU 部署的 BOM 粗略估算： NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200)： HBM 内存：~50–55%（SK 海力士主导，美光，三星） 逻辑（GPU 裸片）：~25-30%（$TSM 4NP） CoWoS 封装：~13-18% $TSM 光网络：~3–5%（InnoLight, Lumentum, Coherent） PCB/电源：5% 谷歌 TPU “Ironwood” TPU v7： HBM 内存：38-42% 三星 / SK 海力士 逻辑裸片：TSM ~28-33% 设计/I.O：8-10% 联发科 光网络：10-14%（$LITE 主要，$COHR 次要） 光交换：2-4% $LITE $LITE 估计的总集群份额：~8–12% 仅供参考，谷歌的“光”BOM 份额（8–12%）是一个异常值，源于其独特的光路交换 (OCS) 垄断。 粗略估算： 到 2027 年谷歌 TPU 支出 $40B。$LITE 占据 10%（30-40% 利润率），仅来自谷歌的自由现金流超过 $1.5B，仅其主要客户就带来 17 倍市盈率。（分析师在预测 TPU 支出增长时可能严重偏离。） 这甚至不包括其在 $AMZN Trainium、$NVDA Blackwell、$MSFT Maia 和其他芯片部署中的份额。 $LITE 目前位于每个 TPU/GPU 未来芯片部署的中心，并从中分得一杯羹。 唯一的 downside 是，虽然他们现在是明确的市场领导者，但 $AVGO 和 $COHR 很可能在 2027-2028 年准备好竞争。然而…… 人们说“$26B，历史新高，为什么现在买”。 这就是原因。他们参与了未来每一个部署的 TPU/GPU/ASIC。 如果谷歌 TPU 和其他芯片支出增加，且 LITE 从每个美元支出中占据 2-3%（来自 $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT）或 8-12%（来自 $GOOGL），$LITE 最终很容易超过 $60B+。
英文原文
The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.
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感谢 LITE 提醒，并把它和 CRDO/ALAB 的连接层逻辑并列
感谢提醒 $LITE。 我之前没有意识到它对 $NVDA Blackwell、$GOOGL TPU 和 $AMZN Trainium 芯片有多关键。 离谱的是，它竟然处在每家 hyperscaler 的单 GPU/TPU/ASIC 核心环节里（这也是为什么它是高信念标的）。 至于 $CRDO，它和 $ALAB 类似，都是高 Nvidia 式利润率、三位数同比增长，以及依赖 hyperscaler 连接需求的逻辑。
英文原文
Thanks for the $LITE shoutout. I didn't realize how instrumental it was to $NVDA blackwell, $GOOGL TPUs, and $AMZN Trainium chips. Insane how it's part the core of single GPU/TPU/ASIC from every hyperscaler (hence why it's high-conviction) As for $CRDO, similar ground to $ALAB regarding high-Nvidia like margins, triple digit Y/Y growth, and hyperscaler dependencies for connectivity.
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认为 Nebius 基本面没变，情绪转向且收购叙事增强
像 $NBIS 这样的公司，基本面没有任何变化（除了继续改善）。变化的只是市场情绪突然切换了。 但现在，Wedbush 的 Dan Ives 这样的人突然出来说：“Nebius 可能在 2026 年被 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 这样的 hyperscaler 收购”，这极其利多。
英文原文
Nothings fundamentally changed (aside from improving) about companies like $NBIS. Aside from the sentiment flipping the switch. But suddenly we have people like Dan Ives from Wedbush going out and saying "Nebius likely gets acquired by a hyperscaler like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN " in 2026, which is incredibly bullish.
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Hut8 与 Anthropic/Fluidstack 签署大规模租赁后上涨
$HUT 刚刚通过 Fluidstack 与 Anthropic 签署了一项新的三重租赁协议，容量至少 245MW，最高可达 2295MW。 该交易 15 年价值 70 亿美元，并由 $GOOGL 为交易提供兜底。 Hut8 在消息后上涨 25.28%，现在市值为 39.8 亿美元。
英文原文
$HUT has just signed a new Triple lease deal with Anthropic through Fluidstack for at least 245 MW and up to 2,295MW capacity. The deal is valued at $7 Billion over 15 years with $GOOGL backstopping the deal. Hut8 is up 25.28% on the news and now trades at a $3.98B market cap https://t.co/50O28EsJVp
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认为 Neocloud 板块在长期合同去风险后仍被错杀
同意。 像 $CIFR 这样的公司，现在交易得仿佛 $AMZN、$GOOGL 的合同从未发生过。 在整个 Neocloud 板块里，我们看到的是一场崩盘，尽管 Mag7 合同已经让全板块去风险，并提供了长期收入可见性。 $ORCL、$CRWV 以及一些个股因为 OpenAI 敞口而下跌是有道理的，但它把板块其他公司也一起拖下去了。
英文原文
Agreed. Companies like $CIFR are trading like the $AMZN, $GOOGL deals never happened. In the whole Neocloud sector, we’re seeing a crash despite de-risking and long term revenue visibility across the board with Mag7 contracts. $ORCL, $CRWV, and some individual names made sense given OpenAI exposure but it just dragged the rest of the sector alongside it.
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分析 robotaxi 对 Uber 的威胁取决于合作方是否竞争
不同意，但这很有细节。 如果是 Waymo，Robotaxi 会毁掉 $UBER 的商业模式。 Uber 大概已经意识到，任何和 Waymo 的连接，最终都会把用户导向 Waymo 的直接应用，而这个应用有一天会替代/绕开 Uber。$GOOGL 完全有能力补贴利用率。 因此，$NBIS Avride 在德州和 Uber 的上线，就是聚合器模式的好例子：他们允许乘客匹配到一家非竞争性 Robotaxi 公司的车，而 Uber 还部分持有这家公司。 这实际上会让 Uber 应用受益。 如果 $UBER 打好牌，Robotaxi 不会杀死它；但如果 Uber 允许 Waymo 和 Tesla 这种有直接竞争应用的公司匹配客户，并把自己的用户导向竞争应用，那 Waymo 和 Tesla 会杀死它。
英文原文
Disagree, but it’s nuanced. Robotaxis will ruin $UBER’s business model if it’s Waymo. Uber likely realizes that every link with Waymo will eventually funnel into Waymo’s direct app that will replace/sidestep Uber one day. $GOOGL has no problems subsidizing utilization. Hence $NBIS Avride Texas launch with Uber is a good example of the aggregator model where they allow riders to match with robotaxis of a non-competitive Robotaxi company that they partially own. And this actually benefits the app. Robotaxis won’t kill if $UBER plays their cards right, but Waymo and Tesla (with direct competitor apps) will if Uber allows customer matching with them + serves as a funnel for their users unto competing apps.
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周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
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博通财报后AI板块抛售是误解造成的买入机会，新云板块中OpenAI依赖股除外
博通[$AVGO]业绩及其对AI板块的影响，如$LIITE和$NBIS： 博通的业绩"双重超预期"，营收$180.2亿(+28% Y/Y)，EPS $1.95，超出共识预期。 但AVGO下跌-11.64%，并拖累了整个AI板块。 这是买入机会吗？ 是的。 博通被视为超大规模云厂商ASIC代理增长的代表，因为亚马逊$AMZN Trainium、微软$MSFT Maia、尤其是谷歌$GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood都通过它进行规模化部署。 而像$ALAB(-13.2%)、$CRDO(-5.11%)、$LITE(-12.23%)、$TSM(-3.71%)、$COHR(-9.25%)等公司都是TPU/ASIC建设以及博通作为公司的直接受益者。 博通下跌有三个原因，市场下跌有一个原因： 就博通而言，有一些小问题，如税率变化影响EPS模型，或因更多定制AI芯片而非更高利润率软件导致的"利润率压缩"，但这只是会计处理框架问题。（类似于$META在一次性税收后最初的下跌） 对博通和整体市场而言，是积压订单预期问题。以上所有引用的内容与ASIC市场预期增长相比都是小问题。 博通披露未来18个月$730亿的AI积压订单。而有关Anthropic和META购买价值数十亿$GOOGL TPU的传言，人们隐含预期是$800亿+。 然而，这次抛售是由算法和短期AI泡沫情绪驱动的价格错位，而非基本面破裂。 这条积压订单引用是确认订单的最低合同底线。谷歌$GOOGL、亚马逊$AMZN等公司可能会继续增加ASIC订单，而市场未能辨别这一细微差别。 分析师预期营收转化会更加前置，Q4之后积压订单应该会减少，这给出了2026年更高的可能范围$550-600亿+，而非$730亿预期中的$500亿。 TLDR：关于超大规模云厂商ASIC加速以与$NVDA依赖竞争这一论点没有改变。$AVGO和其他如$COHR、Sk Hynix、$MU、$VRT和$LITE都将受益。 这不是关于营收积压订单的最佳消息，但由于交付周期/订单周期和最低底线而被误解。 如果非要说什么，较低的超级云厂商ASIC需求对$NVDA及其生态系统是有益的，但我们也看到$CRWV、$SMCI、$NBIS和$NVDA GPU/DC计算生态系统今天都从盲目抛售中下跌超过5%，尽管存在负相关性。 这又是典型的"AI泡沫"周期因误解而再次来袭。AI股票普遍下跌10-12%的恐慌是一个绝佳的买入机会。 （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 甲骨文[$ORCL]业绩及其对新云板块如$NBIS和$IREN的影响： 甲骨文报告EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后下跌12%。 甲骨文较9月11日高点下跌39.8%，并拖累整个板块。 原因如下： 这次抛售不仅仅是对边际营收miss的反应，而是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出周期可持续性以及该板块主要租户信用资质的不看好： OpenAI。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加$150亿至近$500亿，这与报道的与OpenAI $3000亿合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI是前沿LLM，对甲骨文、Coreweave等公司有前景良好的资本支出承诺，促成了该板块的初始重新定价。 然而，随着超过$1万亿的义务以及Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等竞争对手的增加，市场严重质疑甲骨文、Coreweave等公司是否为无法从运营现金流履行其义务的租户在建设。 我们看到市场有效地发出信号：甲骨文正在为OpenAI创造一种不可持续的债务驱动型"供应商融资"，而OpenAI无法履行其承诺。 因此下跌是理性的：这次抛售是由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重新定价所驱动。 OpenAI融资担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设得到其营收($130亿)与义务($600亿/年)之间明显不匹配的支撑。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文CDS利差扩大显示"信用事件"降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在新云板块引发传染效应，$NBIS从$140跌至$90s，$IREN从$80跌至$40s，$CIFR从$24s跌至$17s。 但这对$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司来说是买入机会吗？ 是的。 这对$ORCL来说是好的买入机会吗？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL（很大一部分）、$CRWV（25%积压订单）是两个主要依赖OpenAI的公司，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间翻转（+30%+变化）。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值超额认购IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，我们可以看到这种改变。 然而，许多其他公司与OpenAI无关。新云板块的原始论点是Mag7资本支出从其现金牛业务（Azure、AWS、GCP）向下流向：$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL、$CRWV)下跌，这些公司算法性地拖累了整个板块。 如果你看各家公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL兜底，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是与超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压订单，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的不理性抛售为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不是与OpenAI相关的公司如$ORCL和$CRWV。
英文原文
Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS: Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus. But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector. Is this a buying opportunity? Yes. Broadcom is seen as a hyperscaler ASIC proxy growth as companies like $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, and most importantly $GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood are scaled through it. And by proxy companies like $ALAB (-13.2%), $CRDO (-5.11%), $LITE (-12.23%), $TSM (-3.71%), $COHR (-9.25%), and are direct beneficiaries of the TPU/Asic buildout and Broadcom as a company. There's three reasons why Broadcom fell and one why the market fell: For Broadcom, there's minor things such as tax rate changing EPS models or "margin compression" from accounting from just more custom AI chips than higher-margin software, but this is just accounting framing. (Similar to how $META dropped initially on one-time tax post-ER) For both Broadcom general market, it was backlog expectations. Everything cited above is all minor compared to expected growth of ASIC markets. Broadcom cited $73B in AI backlog for the next 18 months. And rumors of Antrophic and META buying billions of $GOOGL TPUs, people were implicitly expecting $80B+. However, the selloff represents a dislocation in price driven by algorithms and short-term AI Bubble sentiment rather than a fundamental breakage. This backlog quote was the MINIMUM CONTRACTUAL FLOOR of confirmed orders. Companies like $GOOGL, $AMZN, will likely continue ramping up ASIC orders and the market failed to discern this nuance. Analysts are expecting revenue conversion to be more front loaded, and that there should be less backlog beyond Q4 given the cycles, which gives a higher likely range of $55-60B+ for 2026 rather than $50B expected of the $73B. TLDR: The thesis regarding hyperscaler ASIC ramp to compete vs $NVDA dependency has not changed. $AVGO and other players like $COHR, Sk Hynix, $MU, $VRT, and $LITE all stand to benefit. It's not the best news regarding the revenue backlog, but it's misunderstood due to lead-time/order cycles and minimum floors. If anything, lower hyperscaler ASIC demand is beneficial to $NVDA and their ecosystem, but we've also seen $CRWV, $SMCI, $NBIS and $NVDA GPU/DC compute ecosystem drop over 5%+ today from an indiscriminate sell-off despite inverse correlation. This is just the typical "AI Bubble" cycle hitting again from misunderstanding. The widespread panic of AI stocks dropping 10-12% is a great buying opportunity.
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看好$SNAP因降本增效及AI收入，预计2026-27年有100%+涨幅。
$SNAP 在 7.64 美元时被极度低估。 -> Snapchat 通过转向 GCP 削减运营支出，并将其转化为收入。 -> Perplexity 交易在现有收入基础上增加了 4 亿美元股权/现金。 预计这些变化带来的净自由现金流(Net FCF)在 2026 年底至 2027 年初将达到 +6.3 亿美元（+1.9 亿运营云支出节省，+5.4 亿内存收入，-1 亿存储成本）。 CEO 出售 1000 万美元股票并不重要，尤其是当有 5 亿美元回购时。 $SNAP 不需要成为 $META，它永远不会是。 在 130 亿美元市值下，它只需要削减成本并改善来自其 15-20 亿美元季度收入（~55% 毛利率）的自由现金流。 那么即使用户增长放缓或轻微下降，它也将获得巨大的重估。 目前税务收割(tax harvesting)可能在未来两周结束。但如果你能等待整整一年，我有信心一旦计入 GCP 运营支出削减和 AI 收入流，Snap 将大幅跑赢任何指数。 进入 2026-2027 年，这里有 100%+ 的上行空间。
英文原文
$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64. -> Snapchat cutting opex costs with GCP and converting that to revenue. -> Perplexity deal adding $400m in equity/cash on top of existing revenue. Net FCF Is estimate from these changes is +$630M (+$190M opex cloud, memory revenue +540M, storage cogs -$100m) late 2026, early 2027. The CEO selling $10M in shares is not material, especially when there's $500M in buybacks. $SNAP doesn't need to be $META, it never will. At a $13B marketcap, it just needs to cut costs and improve FCF from its $1.5B-$2B quarterly revenue (~55% gross profit margins). Then it will be re-rated immensely, even if user counts slows or slightly drops. Right now tax harvesting is likely ending next two weeks. But if you can wait a whole year, I'm confident Snap will strongly outperform any index once we factor in GCP opex cuts and AI revenue streams. 100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.
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解析Mag7 ASIC供应链，看好$AAOI因$MSFT散热互连修复及$AMZN订单带来的增长。
不客气！如果我们看Mag7的ASIC，$GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood的供应商在$META交易后曾有一波上涨。 $AMZN Trainium即将像$GOOGL那样开始放量，近期超大规模云厂商$AAOI的订单很可能来自他们。 $AAOI的超额收益逻辑在于：$MSFT Maia 200的订单更多是研发支出，且他们推迟了路线图（可能由于散热和互连问题，例如连接10万颗芯片而不熔化），标准线缆无法用于Maia 200。 但这对$AAOI是利好，因为$MSFT很可能使用他们来解决这一问题，且所有这些ASIC支出将发生在2026-2027年，加上远期收入指引的大幅超预期。 但$AMZN提供了约40亿美元的安全垫以降低风险。
英文原文
NP! If we look at mag7 ASICs, $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood suppliers had a run after the $META deal. $AMZN Trainium is going to ramp up soon like $GOOGL and the recent hyperscaler $AAOI order was likely from them. The alpha for $AAOI is that $MSFT Maia 200 orders were more of R&D spend and they delayed their roadmap (likely due to thermal and interconnect issues eg. 100,000 chips to connect without melting) and standard cabling wasn't working for Maia 200. But this is bullish for $AAOI since $MSFT likely uses them for this fix and all of this ASIC spend will be occur in 2026-2027 + huge beat on forward revenue projections. But $AMZN is providing the nice $4B floor for de-risking.
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看好$AAOI，因其在AI光互联中的核心地位及美国本土制造优势，认为其被严重低估。
我买入 $ALAB、$NBIS、$TSM 和 $LITE，是因为“七巨头”(Mag7) 的收入正流向这些公司。 $LITE 的独特之处在于其在 GOOGL TPU v7、AMZN Trainium v3/4 和 NVDA Blackwell 中的角色。 但我发现了一个新标的。 一家市值低于 30 亿美元的小盘股，符合我的投资逻辑： 名称 - $AAOI 一家小型光子学玩家，也是我持仓的两家光子学公司之一： 1. Lumentum ($LITE) 在每一款芯片的部署/爬坡中都占据独特地位，因为其光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching) 技术被用于 Blackwell、Trainium 和 Ironwood，作为一种“横向扩展”(scale-across) 型技术。 无论超大规模云厂商选择 ASIC 还是 GPU，$LITE 都能胜出，因为它处于核心位置。 2. Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 更多涉及“纵向扩展”(scale-out) 连接，针对 Trainium、Maia 等定制 ASIC 集群，通过 400G 和 800G 光缆及光收发器实现。 鉴于 $AAOI 在 AWS（Trainium 的大客户）和 MSFT Maia ASIC 中的角色，它也能无论何种情况都胜出。 行业正经历由向 800G 速度迁移驱动的“超级周期”，而 AAOI 正处于中心位置。 此外，AAOI 具有独特的地缘政治角度： 美国优先。 与许多无晶圆厂(fabless)并将生产外包到台湾的公司不同，Applied Optoelectronics 在德克萨斯州自行制造激光器。 美国超大规模云厂商（特别是 Amazon 和 Microsoft）正在积极减少对关键基础设施中国供应链的依赖，这有助于 AAOI 实现本土激光器制造。 我们还看到一家“主要超大规模云厂商”对其 800G 数据中心光收发器下达了另一笔巨额订单。 但 AAOI 的交易表现像一家困境公司；然而，其亚马逊权证协议隐含的收入为 2025 年 Q4 和 2026 财年的 800G 爬坡创造了非对称的风险/回报特征。鉴于其在 AI 建设中的角色及现有的超大规模云厂商合同，AAOI 似乎结构性被低估。 市场终于开始重估 $LITE，但感觉 $AAOI 才刚刚开始，鉴于其小市值以及作为超大规模云厂商 ASIC 集群关键玩家和“美国制造”的独特角度。 市场目前正在对光子学玩家进行大幅重估并赋予高溢价，但 AAOI 今年仅上涨 2.20%，似乎蓄势待发。
英文原文
I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them. Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell. But there's a new one I found out about. A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis: Name - $AAOI A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in: 1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology. $LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all. 2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers. $AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs. The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it. On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle, America first. Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas. US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home. And we've seen another huge volume order from a "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers. But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts. The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America. The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.
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OpenAI 恐慌引发 AI 供应链板块抛售，独立标的现买入机会。
确实如此。其中很大一部分源于对 OpenAI 的担忧。例如，OpenAI 是 $CRWV 的锚定租户之一；$ALPD 出售垃圾债 -> 信贷收紧。随后板块抛售。显然这是多因素的（例如，套息交易平仓引发的更广泛抛售），ATM 增发/可转换票据 + 部分公司进一步稀释 -> 市场风险偏好下降。但再次强调，$ALPD 和 $CORZ 与 $CRWV 挂钩，而后者与 OpenAI 挂钩。$CIFR、$WULF 通过 Fluidstack 作为锚定方与 $GOOGL 挂钩。$NBIS 为 $MSFT 和 $META 进行建设。这是一个极其微妙的板块，但像 OpenAI 引发的全板块抛售/恐慌也为更独立的玩家提供了买入机会。
英文原文
They did. A large part of it was OpenAI fears. eg. OpenAI -> one of $CRWV anchor tenant. $ALPD selling junk bonds -> credit tightening. Sector selloff after. Obviously it's multifacted (eg. broader selloff from carry trade unwind), ATM offerings/convertible notes + more dilution for some -> market risk off. But again, $ALPD + $CORZ are linked to $CRWV which are linked to OpenAI. $CIFR, $WULF -> $GOOGL through Fluidstack as anchor. $NBIS -> Buildout for $MSFT and $META. It's an extremely nuanced sector, but whol sector selloff/fears like OpenAI presents a buying opportunity too for the more isolated players.
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Neocloud龙头承压，但获超大规模云商背书的个股是理想买点。
我预计Neocloud股票今天会表现不佳，因为$ORCL/$CRWV是“板块龙头”。 但这将是该板块个股的理想买入机会： 因为市场忽略了$ORCL/$CRWV高负债扩张的主要交易对手是OpenAI这一细微差别。 但该板块的其他公司如$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF则由AAA评级的超大规模云服务商（$META/$META/$GOOGL/$AMZN）的现金牛业务提供背书。
英文原文
I expect a bad day for Neocloud stocks just because $ORCL / $CRWV are "sector leaders". But this would be an ideal buying opportunity for individual companies in the sector: Due to the market missing the nuance that $ORCL / $CRWV's debt-filled buildout is for OpenAI as the main counterparty. But other companies in the sector like $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF are backstopped by AAA-rated Hyperscaler ( $META / $META / $GOOGL / $AMZN) cash cows.
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AI数据中心客户资金差异大，市场误判导致板块错配机会。
AI 数据中心(AI DC)领域极其微妙。 $ORCL 正基于租户 OpenAI 的积压订单/信用状况，通过债务建设产能。 OpenAI 目前无力履行其义务，且获得资金的可能性越来越小。 $CIFR 正为 $GOOGL、$AMZN 建设产能。 谷歌/亚马逊拥有资金，且这些合同已锁定。 $NBIS 正为 $META、$MSFT 建设产能。 微软/Meta 拥有资金，且这些产能合同已锁定。 但市场目前将所有积压订单都视为来自 OpenAI（不可持续的建设），因此这是买入该板块个别组件错定价的好机会。
英文原文
The AI DC sector is extremely nuanced. $ORCL is building capacity from debt based on backlog/credit worthiness of OpenAI which is the tenant. OpenAI does not have the funds at the moment to fulfill its obligations and it's looking less likely to get it. $CIFR is building out for $GOOGL, $AMZN. Google/Amazon does have the funds and these contracts are locked in. $NBIS is building out for $META, $MSFT. Microsoft/Meta does have the funds and these contracts are locked in for capacity. But the market is currently treating all the backlog like it comes from OpenAI (unsustainable build) which is why it's a good opportunity to buy into mispricing of individual components of the sector.
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甲骨文因OpenAI信用风险大跌，新云板块错杀，建议买入非OpenAI依赖标的。
甲骨文($ORCL)的财报结果及其对$NBIS和$IREN等“新云(Neocloud)”板块的影响： 甲骨文财报EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后仍下跌12%。 甲骨文自9月11日高点以来已下跌39.8%，并拖累了整个板块。 原因如下： 抛售不仅是对营收轻微不及预期的反应，更是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出(Capex)周期可持续性，以及该板块主要租户OpenAI偿债能力的担忧。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加150亿美元至近500亿美元，这与据报道的与OpenAI的3000亿美元合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI作为前沿大语言模型(LLM)，向甲骨文、Coreweave等承诺了诱人的资本支出，推动了板块的初步重估。 然而，随着超过1万亿美元的债务义务以及来自Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等的竞争加剧，市场严重怀疑甲骨文、Coreweave等是否为一家无法通过经营性现金流履行义务的租户建设基础设施。 市场有效发出了信号：甲骨文正在为无法履行承诺的OpenAI提供不可持续的债务融资“供应商融资(Vendor Financing)”。 因此，下跌是理性的：抛售由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重估驱动。 OpenAI资金担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设，由其收入(130亿美元)与义务(600亿美元/年)之间的巨大错配所支持。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文信用违约互换(CDS)利差的扩大表明“信用事件”降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在“新云”板块中引发了传染效应：$NBIS从140美元跌至90美元区间，$IREN从80美元跌至40美元区间，$CIFR从20多美元跌至17美元区间。 但这对于$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司是否是买入机会？ 是的。 这对$ORCL是否是好的买入机会？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL(大部分)和$CRWV(25%积压订单)是两大主要依赖OpenAI的玩家，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间反转(+30%以上波动)。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值进行超额认购的IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，情况可能改变。 然而，许多其他玩家与OpenAI隔离。新云板块的原始逻辑是Mag7从其现金牛业务(Azure, AWS, GCP)向下漏斗资金至：$NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL, $CRWV)下跌，算法交易拖累了整个板块。 如果单独看公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL背书，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是来自超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的非理性抛售，为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不包括与OpenAI绑定的$ORCL和$CRWV。
英文原文
Oracle [ $ORCL ] earning results and its effect on the neocloud sector like $NBIS & $IREN: Oracle reported earnings with a beat on EPS and a record backlog but, dropped 12% after hours. Oracle is down 39.8% from September 11th highs and brought down the sector with it. Here's why: The sell-off was not merely a reaction to marginal revenue miss, but both an algorithmic short and investor selloff on the sustainability of the AI capex cycle and the creditworthiness of the sector's primary tenant: OpenAI. Oracle's announcement of a $15 billion increase in 2026 capital spending to nearly $50 billion was inextricably linked to a reported $300 billion partnership with OpenAI. Originally, OpenAI was the frontier LLM, with promising capex promises to Oracle, Coreweave and others, contributing to the initial repricing of the sector. However, with over $1t+ in obligations and increasing competition from Anthropic, Gemini, XAI, and others, the markets have serious doubts on whether Oracle, Coreweave, and others are building for a tenant that cannot currently fund its obligations from operating cash flow. WE're seeing the market effectively signaling that the market Oracle is creating an unsustainable debt-funded "vendor financing" for OpenAI, which cannot fulfill its promises. So, the drop was rational: The sell-off was driven by a rational repricing of credit risk and capital intensity. OpenAI Funding Fear is Valid: The hypothesis that OpenAI lacks the funds to honor its contracts is supported by a glaring mismatch between its revenue ($13B) and its obligations ($60B/year). Credit Fears are Real: The widening of Oracle's CDS spreads sees a rising probability of a "credit event" downgrade or default. Furthermore, we're seeing this trigger a contagion effect across the "Neocloud" sector from $NBIS dropping from $140 to $90s, $IREN dropping $80 to $40s, $CIFR dropping from $24s to $17s. But is this a buying opportunity for Neoclouds like $WULF, $NBIS, $IREN, and others? Yes. Is this a good buying opportunity for $ORCL? No. Forward Outlook: $ORCL (large portion) , $CRWV (25% backlog) are the two players largely dependent on OpenAI and this narrative can flip in an instant (+30%+ change) depending on capital raising activity from OpenAI. If OpenAI files for an oversubscribed IPO in 2026 at high valuations and it's new GPT models beats out Gemini/Claude, we can see this change. However, many other players are isolated from OpenAI. The original thesis of the Neocloud sector was Mag7 capex funndel from their cash cows segments (Azure, AWS, GCP) down into: $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF, and others. But as the largest players ( $ORCL, $CRWV) fall, these algorithmically bring down the whole sector. If you look at the companies individually, companies like $CIFR and $WULF are being backstopped by $GOOGL, and $IREN / $NBIS are funded by $MSFT. These are locked in contract backlogs from Hyperscalers/Mag7, not OpenAI. This irrational selloff due to misunderstanding of risks presents an amazing buying opportunity for the Necoloud sector, but not companies tied to OpenAI like $ORCL and $CRWV.
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美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。
美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级： 强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释： 今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。 然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。 强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。 话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。 三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。 买入评级： 文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入 回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。
英文原文
Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.
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更新持仓表现，计划逢高加仓AMKR/SMCI，等待LITE回调。
持仓更新： 持有高确信度的多头头寸如 $NBIS 并卖出期权，周末相对轻松。 上周小幅加仓更新： $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite 受益于 $NVDA Blackwell 和 $GOOGL v7 TPU 的产能爬坡。 $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 受益于美国关于与 $TSM 建厂的政策。 $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$210.3亿 （明年营收同比增长60%，季度积压订单延迟导致的40%跌幅是不合理的）。 $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 除了 $CRWV 再融资20亿美元并拖累其他 Neoclouds，以及华纳兄弟1080亿美元 Paramount 收购案风波外，没看到太多新闻。 可能会在 $AMKR 和 $SMCI 上逢高加仓，等待 $LITE 更深幅度的回调。
英文原文
Stock position updates: Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend. Minor position adds updates from last week: $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 Benefits from US-policy regarding Fab with $TSM. $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$21.03B (60% Y/Y revenue growth going into next year, the 40% drop for quarter backlog delay was unwarranted). $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 Haven't seen too much news aside from $CRWV raising another $2B and tanking other Neoclouds. Or the $108B Paramount bid drama for Warner. Probably going to cost average up on $AMKR, $SMCI, waiting on a deeper drops for $LITE.
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Avride是$NBIS核心资产，自动驾驶出租车市场潜力巨大，机构严重低估$NBIS价值。
根据 Seeking Alpha 报告与 Nuro 的基准对比，其估值现在可能约为 60 亿美元。但我会说 Avride 是 $NBIS 的皇冠明珠，而非 Clickhouse，尤其是当 Waymo 等自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxi) 公司在短时间内估值飙升至 1000 亿美元以上时。 $TSLA 仅因推出自动驾驶出租车就增加了数千亿美元的价值（例如 Cathie Wood 表示自动驾驶出租车可能占特斯拉价值的 90%），这是一个因参与者稀缺而具有极大上行空间的市场。 基本上只有 $TSLA、$GOOGL 的 Waymo、$AMZN 的 Zoox、现代……以及正试图抵御自动驾驶出租车竞争的 $UBER。 $UBER 通过 Avride 而非与 Waymo 合作来扩大其防御能力至关重要，以避免将客户引导至竞争对手的应用程序（例如他们联合投资了 3.75 亿美元的原因）。 鉴于 $NBIS 拥有 Avride 83% 的股份，如果其规模达到约 450 亿美元市值（这是 Waymo 在 2024 年 10 月的估值）……这实际上超过了 Nebius 今天的市值，而它才刚刚在德克萨斯州启动。 像 Hedgeye 这样的基金可能没有计算 SOP 增长，并且严重低估了 Nebius。
英文原文
Probably around $6B now as per the seeking alpha report benchmarked vs Nuro. But I'd say Avride is crown jewel of $NBIS, not clickhouse, especially when robotaxi companies like Waymo scaled to a $100B+ valuation in a short time. $TSLA gained hundreds of billions in value just due robotaxi launch (eg. Cathie Wood said robotaxis could be 90% of tesla's value) and it's a market with extreme upside due to lack of players. There's basically just $TSLA, $GOOGL Waymo, $AMZN Zoox, Hyundai... and then $UBER which is trying to defend themselves against robotaxi competition. $UBER has the upmost importance to scale its defensibility with Avride instead of partnering with Waymo -> funneling customers into the other app. (eg. why they joint invested $375M). Given how $NBIS owns 83% of avride, if it scales to ~$45B MC, which was Waymo's valuation BACK in October 2024.... That's literally more than Nebius's marketcap today lol, and it just launched in Texas. Funds like Hedgeye probably aren't accounting for SOP growth and are vastly underestimating Nebius.
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分析NBIS、IREN、CIFR及TE的投资逻辑与风险，并点评用户高波动组合。
从我的角度来看： $NBIS - 拥有最高的非对称上行潜力，因为除了核心的运营数据中心业务外，他们还有4家类似Robotaxi的子公司，同比增长超过100%。这只是一场等待市场定价部分价值（例如$UBER因Avride自动驾驶汽车大涨，但持有Avride的$NBIS却无反应）的游戏。 我非常看好Robotaxi和Avride。我不明白市场为何没看到这个机会（也许我们只是太早了，不过据我上次检查，机构持仓已从38%累积至流通盘的52%以上，所以有些人可能已经意识到了）。 $IREN - 潜在上行空间最大，但风险也是所有标的中最大的。仅为了达成与$MSFT的交易，他们就不得不稀释股权并支付58亿美元以上的硬件费用，且为了加速建设，每兆瓦成本高达200万美元。然而，这仅仅是为了变现一小部分产能，他们选择的是AI云路线，而非像$CIFR那样购买GPU做托管(Colo)。如果$IREN继续提供GPU服务，我会作为投资者极度担忧，因为执行存在不确定性，且变现“3GW管道”需要极其巨大的稀释。也许再等几个月会更好，因为短期投资者受损最重。 $CIFR - 可能是新云(Neocloud)板块中最安全的，因为他们有$AMZN和$GOOGL背书，资产负债表上有大量比特币以应对下一次减半事件，且虽然营收增长较慢，但通过超大规模云厂商合约获得了高毛利的托管(Colo)收入可见性。 $TE - 能源是个不错的博弈方向。 你的投资组合波动性极大哈哈（可能回撤50%），但如果你出身于WSB Reddit、加密货币和期权交易圈，那也没问题。
英文原文
Okay so from my perspective $NBIS - Highest asymmetrical upside possible because they have 4 subsidaries like robotaxis growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside their core operational DC business. It's just a waiting game until market prices in parts (eg. $UBER rose a ton from self driving cars with Avride, but $NBIS had no movement but owns Avride). I really really like robotaxis and Avride. I don't know how markets aren't seeing this opportunity (maybe we're just early, institutions accumulated over 52% of the float last i checked though from 38%, so some are probably aware). $IREN - highest possible upside, but biggest risk of them all. Just for their $MSFT deal they had to dilute and pay for $5.8B+ worth of hardware just to do the deal and ended up spending up $2m/mw in costs just for expedited buildout. However, that was just to monetize a small amount of capacity and they're going the AI cloud route instead of colo buying GPUS, unlike $CIFR. I'd be extremely worried as an investor if they kept doing GPU offerings because of execution uncertainty and extreme, extreme amount of dilution to monetize that "3 GW pipeline". Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most. $CIFR - probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event, and are doing slower revenue growth but higher margin colo offerings with revenue visibility from hyperscaler deals $TE - energy is a good play. Your portfolio is incredibly volatile lol (can swing -50%) but it's fine if you're born from the depths of wsb reddit, crypto, and options.
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博主认为七大科技股当前估值具备较高概率优势。
@Scepticus16 就我而言，从当前估值来看，$meta、$amzn、$googl、$nvda、$appl、$msft、$tsla 的概率较大。
英文原文
@Scepticus16 Prob $meta, $amzn, $googl, $nvda, $appl, $msft, $tsla for me in terms of current valuations
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对比GOOGL与UBER供应链标的股价表现差异
@babyfolio $GOOGL 使用 Planet Labs。$PL -> +80% $UBER 使用 $NBIS 的 Avride。$NBIS -> -3%，$UBER 上涨 4% ????????????$@$@$?????
英文原文
@babyfolio $GOOGL uses planet labs. $PL -> +80% $UBER uses $NBIS Avride. $NBIS -> -3%, $UBER up 4% ????????????$@$@$?????
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反驳特斯拉FSD营销，指出其仍为L2级，对比Waymo的L4优势。
抱歉，那是自我安慰。$NBIS Avride 和 $GOOGL Waymo 现在已有可用的 L4 级自动驾驶系统。特斯拉拥有更具可扩展性的架构，但仍处于 L2 级。 关于 $TSLA： ~30 辆有人监督车辆 vs Waymo 的 2,500 辆无人监督车辆 - 仍需人类安全监控员 - 即使有监控员，事故率也更高 - 每 6.25 万英里发生一次碰撞。 当法律要求人类驾驶员必须在场时，FSD 的说法只是营销噱头。 如果你说 $TSLA 更具可扩展性、单车成本更低（无激光雷达 = 每辆便宜数千美元），且无需地理围栏/预映射即可随处运行，我会同意你。
英文原文
Sorry that's copium. $NBIS Avride + $GOOGL Waymo have working Level 4 systems now. Tesla has a more scalable architecture that's still at Level 2. With $TSLA you have: ~30 supervised vehicles vs Waymo's 2,500 unsupervised vehicles - Human safety monitors still required - Higher incident rate even with monitors present - Crash every 62.5k miles. The FSD claims are just marketing when legally human drivers are required to be present at the wheel. I would agree with you if you said $TSLA was more scaleable with cheaper per vehicle (no LiDAR = thousands less per unit), and works everywhere (no geofencing/pre-mapping required).
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Uber联手Nvidia对抗Tesla和Waymo，共享出行市场或现多赢格局。
我会将其框架化为 $UBER + $NBIS Avride 对阵 $TSLA 对阵 $GOOGL Waymo。特斯拉有独立应用。Waymo 也有独立应用。两者都在与 Uber（拥有最大网络）竞争。如果我是 Uber，我会通过 Avride 来增长，以免用户仅仅被引导至 Waymo 的应用。共享出行领域可能有多位赢家（例如 $LYFT + $UBER），因为这是一个巨大的市场。
英文原文
I'd frame it more of $UBER + $NBIS Avride vs. $TSLA vs. $GOOGL Waymo. Tesla has its standalone app. Waymo has a standalone app. Both are competing vs Uber (which has the largest network) If I were Uber, I'd grow with Avride on this so they don't just funnel users to Waymo's app. Probably multiple winners (eg. $LYFT + $UBER) for ridesharing since it's a huge market.
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Nebius因算法忽视其高增长子公司而被严重低估。
不，这对 $NBIS 来说甚至算不上新闻。 就在刚才，Avride 与 $UBER 的合作发布可能是该投资组合公司十年来最大的头条，但在 $GOOGL / $HOOD 等新闻聚合器（算法也依赖这些）上，这甚至与 Nebius 不相关。 这就是为什么我一直认为 Nebius 在结构上被错误定价和误解，因为有像 Avride 这样 4 家同比增长 100%+ 的子公司，但市场/算法并没有将这些动态部分纳入定价。
英文原文
Nope, it’s not even news for $NBIS. Just now, Avride launch with $UBER is probably the biggest headline of the decade for the portfolio company but its not even correlated to Nebius on places like $GOOGL / $HOOD news aggregators (which algorithms rely on too) This is why I’ve been arguing Nebius is structurally misvalued and misunderstood because there’s 4 subsidiaries like Avride growing 100%+ Y/Y but markets/algorithms aren’t pricing in the moving parts
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谷歌太空数据中心项目利好 Planet Labs 及发射商 Rocket Lab。
谷歌($GOOGL) CEO 近日发布：Project Suncatcher 项目，计划于 2027 年在太空建立数据中心。下一代张量处理单元(TPU)将运行在太阳能卫星星座上，以扩展机器学习(ML)流程。最大的受益者是谁？Planet Labs ($PL) 以及衍生的 $RKLB 和 SpaceX。Planet Labs 是一家鲜为人知的小市值($35亿)太空公司，凭借此交易拥有巨大上行空间。Planet Labs 将为谷歌部署两颗原型卫星，目标是在 2027 年初发射。$PL 使用的发射服务商是 $RKLB（分别于 2018 年 1 月和 2020 年 10 月）和 SpaceX。其中一家（Rocket Lab）让人想起我最高确信度的多头持仓。对于 $PL 而言，收入可能在 1000 万至 4000 万美元的小范围内。但如果原型机顺利，完整的星座将带来 2.5 亿至 10 亿美元以上（且规模效应下更多）的收入。你搭上 $GOOGL 供应商列车了吗？
英文原文
Google ( $GOOGL ) CEO recently unveiled: Project Suncatcher, a project to create datacenters in space in 2027. Next generation TPUs will run on solar-powered satellite constellations to scale ML flows. The biggest beneficiary? Planet Labs ( $PL ) and by derivative $RKLB and SpaceX. Planet Labs, a lesser known, small cap $3.5B space company, has huge upside with this deal. Planet labs will deploy two prototype satellites for Google, targeting a launch by early 2027. The launch providers that $PL uses are $RKLB (January 2018 and October 2020) and SpaceX. One of which (Rocketlab) reminds one of my highest conviction longs. For $PL revenue is likely in the small $10-$40M range. But a full constellation would bring in $250 million to $1 billion+ (and more at scale) if the prototype goes well. Are you riding the $GOOGL supplier train?
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分析Google TPU v7供应链，建仓Lumentum以博弈TPU生态扩张。
对 $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood 供应商的分析。 以下是受 Google TPU 建设影响最大的公司列表。 + 我正在建仓的 TPU 相关股票。 [关键] 设计/IP： - 博通 [ $AVGO ]：共同设计并实现 Google 的 TPU ASIC（专用集成电路） [关键/高] 半导体晶圆代工： - #1 台湾半导体 [ $TSM ]：TPUv7 在 TSMC 3nm 工艺制造 - #2 三星电子：次要存储及晶圆代工合作伙伴 [关键/高] 存储： - #1 SK 海力士：为 TPUv7 Ironwood 提供 HBM3E - #2 三星电子：~TPUv7 特定报告强调 SK 海力士 + 三星。 [高] 光网络： - Lumentum [ $LITE ]：Google 广泛使用光电路交换 (OCS) - Coherent [ $COHR ]：OCS 参与者但较弱 [高] 电源管理 IC： - Monolithic [ $MPWR ]：这是一个投机性观点，即 Vicor 将被 $MPWR 取代，源自财报中提及 TPU [中] 热管理： - Vertiv [ $VRT ]：Vertiv 供应作为液冷系统核心的 CDU（冷却分配单元），将冷却液泵送至 TPU 芯片的冷板 - Modine [ $MOD ]：更投机性地认为他们提供大型冷水机组和空气处理单元 (AHU) [中] 互连： - TTM Technologies [ $TTMI ]，$ANET，Unimicron，Ibiden ______ Google TPU v7 “Ironwood” 的建设代表了一个旨在打破 $NVDA GPU 垄断的平行硅生态系统的构建。 实质性影响最集中在博通（作为硅架构师和商业载体）、存储综合体（SK 海力士/三星）以及光网络/电源领域（Lumentum/Vertiv），这是基于公开证据创建的，但很大程度上取决于采用率、供应商份额和竞争反应的实际表现。 从这项供应链研究中，我正在 $LITE 建立新头寸，以防 TPU 成为推理领域的主导 ASIC。 Lumentum 是 Google 致力于 OCS 的主要受益者，并构成了 TPU 吊舱中使用的 “Apollo” OCS 交换机的核心。 TPU v7 集群的爬坡直接转化为 Lumentum 光开关模块的出货量。由于 OCS 是 Google 超大规模方法独有的定制架构，Lumentum 在此处面临的 commoditization（商品化）压力小于标准收发器市场。 然而，如果 Anthropic、Meta、Apple 和其他公司购买 $GOOGL ASIC 导致 TPU v7 规模扩大，该供应链中的所有公司都将受益。
英文原文
Analysis of the $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood Suppliers. Here's the list of what comapnies are the most materially impacted by the Google's TPU buildout. + the TPU stock I'm taking a position on. [Critical] Design/IP: - Broadcom [ $AVGO ]: co-designs and implements Google’s TPU ASICs [Critical/High] Semiconductor Fab: - #1 Taiwan Semi [ $TSM ]: TPUv7 is fabbed at TSMC 3nm - #2 Samsung Electronics: Secondary memory & foundry partner [Critical/High] Memory: - #1 SK Hynix: HBM3E for TPUv7 Ironwood - #2 Samsung Electronics: ~TPUv7-specific reporting emphasizes SK hynix + Samsung. [High] Optical Networking: - Lumentum [ $LITE ]: Google uses extensively uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) - Coherent [ $COHR ]: OCS player but weaker [High] Power Management ICs: - Monolithic [ $MPWR ]: This is speculative that Vicor will be replaced by $MPWR, from earnings mentioning TPU [Medium] Thermal Management: - Vertiv [ $VRT ]: Vertiv supplies the CDUs that act as the heart of the liquid cooling system, pumping coolant to the cold plates on the TPU chips - Modine [ $MOD ]: More speculative that they provide provides the massive chillers and air handling units (AHUs) [Medium] Interconnects: - TTM Technologies [ $TTMI ], $ANET, Unimicron, Ibiden ______ The buildout of the Google TPU v7 "Ironwood" represents the construction of a parallel silicon ecosystem designed to break the monopoly of $NVDA GPU. The material impact is most concentrated in Broadcom (as the silicon architect and commercial vehicle), the Memory Complex (SK Hynix/Samsung), and the Optical/Power sectors (Lumentum/Vertiv) and was created from public evidence but is largely dependent on adoption, vendor shares, and competitive responses actually play out. From this supply chain research, I'm initiating a new position in $LITE, in the event the TPU becomes the dominant ASIC for inference. Lumentum is primary beneficiary of Google’s commitment to OCS and form the core of the "Apollo" OCS switches used in TPU pods. The ramping of TPU v7 clusters translates directly to unit volume for Lumentum’s optical switch modules. And because OCS is a bespoke architecture unique to Google’s hyperscale approach, Lumentum faces less commoditization pressure here than in the standard transceiver market. However all companies in this supply chain are set to benefit if the TPU v7 scales up from Anthropic, Meta, Apple, and others buying the $GOOGL ASIC.
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AI云股被算法归篮联动，CRWV财务堪忧，NBIS/IREN长期价值或超CRWV。
是的，完全同意。我认为算法/市场目前将 $NBIS、$IREN 归入 $CRWV、$NVDA 的篮子中。因此，任何关于 Coreweave 的负面报道都会对其他公司产生负面影响。我们终于看到 $WULF、$CIFR 等被归入数据中心(colocation)篮子（相对不受 GPU 贬值论点影响），并表现优异。但坦率地说，$CRWV 是一个财务噩梦，只要它被视为新云(neocloud)行业领导者，就会影响其他公司。至于 $NVDA，$GOOGL 的 TPU 论据是我目前看到的针对 $NVDA GPU 云业务最强的看空理由，但这些公司已经从 $META、$MSFT 锁定了 5 年的超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)合约。我认为市场最终会正确定价，我相信 $NBIS 和 $IREN 有一天会比 $CRWV 更有价值，但其中只有一家拥有自动驾驶 Robotaxi lol。
英文原文
Yep absolutely. I think algos/market put $NBIS, $IREN in the $CRWV, $NVDA basket right now. So any negative hit piece about Coreweave does negatively affects the others. We've finally seen $WULF, $CIFR and others get put into the colo basket (which are relatively unaffected to GPU depreciation arguments), and outperform. But $CRWV is a financial nightmare to put it bluntly, so it does affect the others as long as it's treated as the neocloud sector leader. As for $NVDA, TPU arguments from $GOOGL is the strongest bear case I've seen to date though on $NVDA GPU clouds, but these companies already have have 5 year hyperscaler deals locked in from $META, $MSFT. imo markets will price things in correctly in due time, I do think both $NBIS and $IREN will be worth more than $CRWV one day. but only one of those has self-driving robotaxis lol
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对比GOOGL与NVDA，认为前者风险更低，后者潜在回报更高。
$GOOGL 具有非对称上行潜力。张量处理单元(TPU) 只是搜索、Waymo、YouTube 及其他业务之外的一个“支线任务”。 $NVDA 若 AI 随机器人/智能体指数级爆发，且其新模型在训练/推理性能上大幅超越其他供应商，则上行空间更大。 由于无法预知结果，同时持有两者无妨，但 Google 显然是两者中风险较低的选择。
英文原文
$GOOGL for asymmetrical upside. TPUs is just a side quest among search, Waymo, YouTube, and less other things. $NVDA for much higher upside in case AI continues taking off exponentially with robotics/agents and they end up leapfrogging all other providers in both trading/inference performance in their newer models. Doesn’t hurt to own both since it’s impossible to know, but Google is clearly the less risky of the two
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AI算力需求指数级增长抵消GPU迭代贬值，NVDA客户优质，非泡沫崩盘。
答案很微妙。 主要看两个因素： 1. GPU 变得更节能。 2. 大语言模型(LLM) 在容量/能效上更高效。 在 LLM 方面，我们看到像 DeepSeek 这类模型在处理不需要高精度的任务（如回答烹饪食谱或知识库查询）时极其高效。 然而……随着计算力的增加，准确率（尤其是复杂研究问题）也在提升。Elon 和 Magnificent Seven 意识到了这一点，所以他们正在扫货市场上的所有 GPU 以创造超级智能。这也是为什么 Anthropic 和 Google 正在建设耗资 400 多亿美元的数据中心，用于运行需要更多算力进行批判性思维（如 Genesis 任务）的更高级 Opus 和 Gemini 模型。 在 GPU 方面，每一代新 GPU（例如 H100 -> B200）在能效和每美元性能上都有显著提升。例如，Blackwell B200 是 Hopper H100 的 30 倍。 如果基于这个假设，那么到 2027/2028 年，市场上将出现大量过时的低效 H100 和 B200，导致二手 GPU 市场崩盘。 但是：这是假设我们没有看到对新 AI 能力的指数级需求（我们很可能会看到，且正在发生）。正因为这种指数级需求，今天旧模型（如 7 年前的 TPU 和 2020 年的 GPU）仍被用于低优先级的推理任务。 $NVDA 的订单已积压数年，人们正在购买 $AMD 的 GPU 和 $GOOGL 的 TPU 来构建任何新增产能。 至于思科类比，思科的客户是互联网泡沫时期无盈利能力的公司。$NVDA 的客户是 $META、$AMZN、$GOOGL、$MSFT，这些是世界上最盈利的公司。所以最坏的情况我们可能看到回调，而不是互联网泡沫式的崩盘。
英文原文
Answer is nuanced. So two factors: 1. GPUs get more power efficient. 2. LLMs get more capacity/power efficient. For the LLMs case, we're seeing that on deepseek type models be extremely efficient on stuff that don't require much accuracy. Basic stuff like responding to questions about cooking recipes, or knowledge-base stuff. However... accuracy increases, especially with complex research questions, scaled with compute. And people like Elon + mag7 realize this, which is why they're just buying up all the GPUs on the market to create superintelligence. And why antrhopic/google is building $40B+ datacenters for more advanced opus and gemini models that require more compute for critical thinking (eg. Genesis Mission) For the GPUs case, every new generation of GPU (e.g., H100 -> B200) offers dramatic improvements in power efficiency and performance per dollar. eg. Blackwell B200 is 30x than the Hopper H100. If we go off that assumption, then there would be a massive useless supply of less-efficient H100s and B200s in 2027/2028 creating a used GPU market crash. HOWEVER: This is if we don't see an exponential demand for new AI capabilities (which we likely will, and what we're seeing now). Because of this exponential demand, TODAY, older models are still used (eg. TPUs from 7 years ago and GPUs from 2020), for lower inference task in lower priority inference tasks. $NVDA is backlogged for years and people are buying GPUs from $AMD /TPUs from $GOOGL to build out any new capacity. As for Cisco analogy, Cisco's customers were .com bubble companies with no profitability. $NVDA's customers are $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT the most profitable companies in the world. So worst case scenario we might see a correction, not a .com bubble crash.
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澄清NVDA与TPU性能对比误区，重申NVDA短期订单安全及长期技术优势。
是的，$NVDA 是强力买入标的。 然而，其他关于 $NVDA GPU 与 TPU 性能对比的病毒式传播的研究帖子，错误地拿旧一代 TPU v6e 来对比，以展示当前 $GOOGL TPU 与 $NVDA GPU 的情况。 我的帖子是关于新一代 TPU v7 Ironwood 与 $NVDA Blackwell B200 的对比，并展示了架构上的对等性。 TPU v7 Ironwood 的性能飞跃非常巨大（计算能力提升高达 10 倍），以至于 X 上流传的许多关于 TPU 推理能力和成本节约的研究具有误导性。 就买入逻辑而言，$NVDA 很可能在未来几代芯片中超越 TPU v7，且其巨大的积压订单为其提供了短期（2年）的安全性。
英文原文
Yes $NVDA is a strong buy. However to the other viral research posts about $NVDA GPU vs TPU performance, they were falsely comparing older generation TPU v6e to show the current situation on $GOOGL TPU vs $NVDA GPU. My post was on newer TPU v7 Ironwood vs $NVDA Blackwell B200 and showing the architectural parity. The TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap is so substantial (up to 10x compute jump) that a lot of research going around X is misleading on the inference capabilities and cost savings of TPU. In terms of buy thesis, on $NVDA, they will likely leapfrog TPU v7 in newer gen chips in due time and their immense backlog provides them near term (2Y) security.
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指出基于旧版TPU的分析已过时，强调TPU v7性能飞跃使旧成本分析失效。
你发布的 @ArtificialAnlys 分析对于评估当前 $GOOGL TPU 与 $NVDA GPU 的局势已经过时/错误。他们基于 TPU v6e 进行了分析。 我的帖子是关于更新型号（TPU v7 Ironwood 与 $NVDA Blackwell B200）在架构上的对等性。 TPU v7 Ironwood 的性能飞跃如此巨大（计算能力提升高达 10 倍），以至于他们对 v6e 的成本分析已不再相关。
英文原文
The @ArtificialAnlys analysis you posted is outdated/ wrong for analyzing the current $GOOGL TPU vs. $NVDA GPU situation. They did theirs on TPU v6e. My post was on architectural parity on newer models (TPU v7 Ironwood vs $NVDA Blackwell B200). The TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap is so substantial (up to 10x compute jump) that their v6e cost analysis is irrelevant.
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英伟达虽面临谷歌TPU等定制芯片竞争，但中期统治力稳固，逢低买入。
英伟达($NVDA)公布的2026财年Q3营收为570.1亿美元(+62.5% YoY)，表现强劲。并指引Q4营收超650亿美元(超预期30亿美元+)，以及通过CY 2026年Blackwell/Rubin系列营收超5000亿美元。尽管如此，股价仍下跌12%。现在$NVDA是强力买入吗？答案如下： $GOOGL的TPU项目成为首个对$NVDA GPU构成竞争替代的方案，Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，Meta据报道正在就数十亿美元的TPU采购进行高级别谈判。沃伦·巴菲特近期也向$GOOGL投资超40亿美元，鉴于伯克希尔对科技股保守的投资立场，这极为罕见。 尽管创下盈利新高，英伟达股价在过去10个交易日中有6天下跌，较10月29日触及5.03万亿美元市值时的历史高点$207.04下跌约12-15%。 分析师反应普遍看多，普遍上调目标价： - Evercore ISI从$261上调至$352 - 美银从$235上调至$275 - 花旗从$220上调至$270 - 高盛从$240上调至$250 - 摩根士丹利从$220上调至$235 但这里有个价值万亿美元的问题：超大规模客户日益增长的定制硅片威胁是否会削弱英伟达在AI领域的统治地位？ 与主要捕捉英伟达GPU缺货时的溢出需求的$AMD不同，谷歌的TPU项目代表了根本不同的竞争动态。 TPU v7 Ironwood是首款在性能上与Blackwell持平的非英伟达加速器，提供4.6 petaflops的FP8性能（对比B200的4.5 petaflops），配备192GB HBM3e内存。 Ironwood的架构差异化显著。虽然英伟达最大的集群配置为72个GPU(NVL72)，TPU Ironwood可扩展至9,216个芯片组。 客户斩获显著且不断增长： - Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，价值“数百亿美元”，1GW算力即将上线。 - Meta正在就2026年从谷歌云租赁TPU容量进行高级别谈判，并计划2027年直接采购硬件用于自有数据中心。 - 苹果透露Apple Intelligence基础模型完全在TPU上训练，使用8,192颗TPUv4芯片用于服务器模型。 - Midjourney从GPU转向TPU，推理成本降低65%（从每月200万美元降至70万美元）。 定位微妙。TPU在超大规模推理方面表现出色，在生产级大规模服务中成本性能最高提升4倍（目前）。在训练方面，英伟达优势明显。 对于高度优化的推理任务，TPU架构可能比$NVDA的通用GPU更高效。 然而，我预计下一代英伟达GPU将在许多场景下在推理性能上超越TPU。（类似于LLM之间GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5的迭代超越） 我们看到： 谷歌TPU、AWS Trainium、Meta MTIA、微软Maia和定制超大规模芯片都在扩展，但仍依赖$NVDA。但超大规模客户集体减少对英伟达的依赖，其累积效应是否会削弱英伟达的统治地位？ 答案：不会。至少未来两年统治地位稳固。之后如何纯属猜测。 仅看数据：Q3结果证实公司仍是AI不可或缺的基础设施提供商，5000亿美元的订单积压为2026年提供了极高的可见性。 但市场似乎正在定价3年+后的这种微妙现实：长期面临超大规模客户定制芯片的竞争不确定性。 英伟达产能完全售罄，且很可能在下一代芯片中超越TPU性能（推理性能更高且保持通用性）。但定制硅片威胁和44倍市盈率的估值担忧仍是逆风。 无论如何，鉴于出色的超预期财报和未来两年的订单积压，$NVDA目前因恐惧而下跌，似乎是中期强力逢低买入的机会。 你只需要记住这一点： 只要英伟达仍是AI工作负载的行业首选，且TPU和AMD GPU仅在需求超过英伟达供应时填补空白，它就是强力买入标的。 英伟达订单积压已满，AI需求并未放缓。
英文原文
Nvidia ( $NVDA ) reported a blowout Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). And guided $65B+ Q4 ($3B+ beat), and $500B+ USD in Blackwell/Rubin rev through CY 2026. Despite that, the stock dropped 12%. Is $NVDA a strong buy now? Here's the answer: $GOOGL TPU's program emerged as the first competitive alternative to $NVDA GPUs, with Anthropic committing to over 1 million TPU chips and Meta reportedly in advanced negotiations for billions in TPU purchases. Warren Buffet also recently invested $4B+ into $GOOGL, which is extraordinarily rare given Berkshire's conservative stance to tech investments. Despite a record earnings beat, Nvidia's stock has declined in six of the last ten trading sessions and sits roughly 12-15% below its October 29 all-time high of $207.04, when it briefly touched a $5.03 trillion market cap. Analyst reaction was overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets raised across the board: - Evercore ISI raised to $352 from $261 - Bank of America raised to $275 from $235 - Citigroup raised to $270 from $220 - Goldman Sachs raised to $250 from $240 - Morgan Stanley raised to $235 from $220 But here's the trillion dollar question: will the emerging custom silicon threat from hyperscalers reduce NVIDIA dominance in AI? Unlike $AMD, which primarily captures overflow demand when NVIDIA GPUs are unavailable, Google's TPU program represents a fundamentally different competitive dynamic. TPU v7 Ironwood is the first non-NVIDIA accelerator that achieves performance parity with Blackwell, delivering 4.6 petaflops of FP8 performance (versus B200's 4.5 petaflops) with 192GB HBM3e memory. Ironwood's architectural differentiation is substantial. While NVIDIA's largest cluster configuration is 72 GPUs (NVL72), TPU Ironwood scleaes to 9,216 chip pods. The customer wins are significant and growing: - Anthropic committed to over 1 million TPU chips worth "tens of billions of dollars," with 1 gw of compute capacity coming online. - Meta is in advanced negotiations to rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud in 2026, with direct hardware purchases for its own data centers planned for 2027. - Apple revealed that Apple Intelligence foundation models were trained entirely on TPUs using 8,192 TPUv4 chips for server models - Midjourney switched from GPUs to TPUs and reduced inference costs by 65% (from $2M to $700K monthly) The positioning is nuanced. TPUs excel at hyperscale inference with up to 4x better cost-performance for production serving at scale (for now). For training, NVIDIA is the clear advantage. For highly optimized inference tasks, TPU architecture might remain more efficient than $NVDA's general-purpose GPU. However, I'm expecting next-gen Nvidia GPUs to leapfrog TPUs for inference in many scenarios. (similar to how LLMs leapfrog each other GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5) We're seeing: Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA, Microsoft Maia, and custom hyperscaler chips scale up to reliance on $NVDA. But will the cumulative effect on hyperscalers collectively reducing Nvidia's dominance? The answer: No. Not yet. Dominance is secured at least for the next two years. What happens after is only speculation. Just looking at the numbers: Q3 results confirm the company remains the essential infrastructure provider for AI, with a $500 billion order backlog providing exceptional visibility through 2026. But the market appears to be pricing in this nuanced reality 3 years+ from now: long-term competitive uncertainty with custom hyperscaler chips. Nvidia is completely sold out of capacity, and are likely to leapfrog TPU performance in their next generation chips (higher performance for inference while being general purpose). But the custom silicon threat and valuation concerns at 44x earnings remains a headwind. Regardless, $NVDA seems to be a strong mid term dip-buy now on fears, given the exceptional blowout earnings and backlog for the next 2 years. This is the only thing you need to remember: NVIDIA is a strong buy as long as it remains the industry’s first choice for AI workloads, with TPUs and AMD GPUs filling gaps when demand exceeds NVIDIA’s supply. Nvidia is maxed out on backlog, and AI demand is not slowing down.
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NBIS因自动驾驶出租车业务被低估，市值仅210亿。
是的，完全不明白为什么人们不更多地讨论 $NBIS 的自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）业务，毕竟他们拥有第四级自动驾驶（Level 4 FSD）能力，且将在几天内启动。人们购买 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 以获取相关敞口，但 $NBIS 市值仅为 210 亿美元，除了自动驾驶出租车外，还有许多其他公司和核心业务相伴。它可能是市场上最被误解且被低估的成长型公司之一。不幸的是，金融圈（finx）只是一个微小的泡沫，即使这里的人开始理解，其他地方大多数人甚至不知道 Nebius 拥有一家已研发 7 年的自动驾驶出租车公司。
英文原文
Yeah, zero clue why people aren’t talking more about $NBIS for robotaxis when they have fsd level 4 and are launching in a few days. People buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for exposure, but $NBIS is just sitting there at a $21B marketcap with many other companies + core businesses to go alongside robotaxis. Probably one of the most misunderstood and undervalued growth companies in the market. Unfortunately finx is a tiny bubble so even if people start to understand it here, majority of people elsewhere wouldn’t even know Nebius owns a robotaxi company that’s been in development for the past 7 years
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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NBIS旗下Avride具L4自动驾驶能力，有望成高增长黑马。
精彩的帖子。如果在日本庆祝的话，感恩节快乐！ 核心论点是，Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）是一个数万亿美元规模的巨大市场，人们正在通过投资 $TSLA 和 $GOOGL 来寻求该领域的敞口。 然而，在特斯拉、亚马逊、谷歌、现代这五大主要玩家中，鲜为人知的另一家是 $NBIS 旗下的 Avride，它拥有 Level 4（L4）级完全自动驾驶技术。经过7年的开发和研发投资，该公司正与 $UBER 一起迈向商业化，并与 Waymo 和 Tesla 展开竞争。 因此，如果 Nebius 在核心的数据中心业务之外，还拥有一家并行且超高速增长的无名子公司，它将成为市场上增长最快的公司之一。
英文原文
素晴らしい投稿ですね。そして、日本で祝っているなら、ハッピーサンクスギビング！ 主張の核心は、ロボタクシーは数兆ドル規模の巨大市場であり、その分野へのエクスポージャーを求めて人々は $TSLA や $GOOGL に投資しているという点です。 しかし、テスラ、アマゾン、グーグル、ヒュンダイの5つの主要プレーヤーのうち、多くの人が知らないもう1社、 $NBIS 傘下の Avride はレベル4の完全自動運転を持っています。そしてこの企業は、7年にわたる開発と研究開発投資を経て $UBER と共に商用化へ向けて動き出し、Waymo や Tesla と競争しようとしています。 このように、コアであるデータセンタービジネスと並行して超高速で成長する無名の子会社を抱えている場合、Nebius は市場でも屈指の高成長企業となるのです。
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分析Robotaxi竞争格局：Waymo领先，Uber联手Avride和WeRide应对巨头威胁。
欢迎反驳关于 $TSLA 是 FSD SAE 2级自动驾驶的观点。特斯拉被归类为2级，是因为其 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）始终有人远程监控。埃隆正在追求一个更宏大的计划，即采用摄像头+非地理围栏解决方案，所以我做的并非简单的同类比较。以下是三点看法：1. 如果他能制造出可重复使用的大型太空火箭，我毫不怀疑他最终能在地球上实现他的计划。2. Waymo 明显领先于其他所有竞争者。3. 我的观点是，来自 $GOOGL、$TSLA、$AMZN 等万亿美元市值公司的个位数 Robotaxi 玩家正在与 $UBER 竞争。Uber 视此为威胁，因此正与 $NBIS 的 Avride（美国）、WeRide（中东、中国）合作，以在明年扩大规模。
英文原文
Feel free to dispute the point that $TSLA is FSD SAE level 2 automation. Tesla is classified as level 2, because in their robotaxis, you have people remotely behind the wheel at all times. Elon is pursuing a more ambitious plan with cameras + non-geofenced solution so it's not an apples to apples comparison I'm making. That being three things: 1. I have no doubt Elon can achieve what he's planning in due time back in planet earth if he's able to create large reusable rockets that go into space. 2. Waymo is clearly ahead of all other players. 3. Point I'm making is there's single digit robotaxi players that all come from trillion dollar company exposure in $GOOGL, $TSLA, $AMZN that compete vs $UBER. Uber sees this as a threat so they're working with $NBIS Avride (United States), WeRide (Middle East, China) to scale it up over the next year.
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对比巨头与Avride在自动驾驶出租车领域的竞争格局及Uber布局。
🎯 对我观点的评论一针见血。人们将自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxis)视为一个万亿美元以上的市场。 $GOOGL Waymo 正在快速扩张并拥有先发优势。$TSLA 押注低成本+摄像头以实现大规模完全自动驾驶(FSD)出租车，但尚未完全到位。 人们通过购买万亿美元市值的 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 来获取这种自动驾驶出租车敞口。 然而，有一家市值仅 210 亿美元的小公司 Avride，它是少数几家 Level 4 开发者之一（自 Yandex 以来已开发 7 年以上）。 Uber 认为 Tesla + Waymo 构成巨大威胁，因此通过与 $NBIS Avride 合作进行扩张（因此有 3.75 亿美元投资+合作），我们可以看到这将在未来一年与其核心业务一起极其迅速地扩大规模。
英文原文
🎯 Spot on commentary of my point. People see robotaxis as a trillion + dollar market. $GOOGL Waymo is expanding rapidly and has first mover advantage. $TSLA is banking on low cost + cameras to achieve FSD robotaxis at scale but aren't quite there yet. And people buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for that self-driving car robotaxi exposure through trillion dollar companies. Yet, sitting in some small $21B marketcap company is Avride, one of the only Level 4 developers out there (that's been in development for 7+ years since Yandex). Uber sees an immense threat from Tesla + Waymo so they're expanding with $NBIS Avride (hence the $375m investment + partnership) and we can see this scale up extremely rapidly over the next year alongside their core business.
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Nebius核心业务高增，其L4级Robotaxi子公司Avride被市场低估。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的核心业务简直疯狂。年收入(ARR)在一年内实现700%以上的同比增长，达到70-90亿美元以上。 更疯狂的是这一点。 其子公司可以超越主营业务 🤯 原因如下： $GOOGL Waymo、$TSLA、$AMZN Zoox、Motional、$NBIS Avride 是目前仅有的5家美国完全自动驾驶(FSD) Robotaxi 公司。 是的，$NBIS Avride 是其中之一。 - 它是4家拥有L4级完全自动驾驶（与Waymo同级）的公司之一。 - 它是3家实现L4级FSD商业化的公司之一（Motional仍处于研发阶段）。 作为参考，Tesla [ $TSLA ] 的Robotaxi目前仅为L2级（需要人工监督）。 人们希望购买Robotaxi公司，因为Cathie Wood所说：“Robotaxi可能占 $TSLA 价值的90%）。 因此，他们通过 $3.6T 的 $GOOGL 和 $1.4T 的 $TSLA 等万亿美元公司来买入该板块的敞口。 但有一家L4级FSD Robotaxi公司即将通过 $UBER 与Waymo竞争： 那就是Avride，一家估值60亿美元的子公司，$NBIS 持有其83%的股份，而市场完全忽略了它。Avride 是 该60亿美元估值基于Seeking Alpha分析师报告（2025年8月），将Avride与Nuro的E轮融资估值进行对标。仅在2025年1月，其估值估计为34亿美元，短短6个月内几乎翻倍（反映了Avride与Uber和现代合作的势头）。 支持当前估值的关键近期进展： - 2017年：Avride由Yandex自动驾驶集团创立 - 2017-2024年：研发... - 2024年10月：与Uber达成多年期配送机器人和Robotaxi合作伙伴关系 - 2025年3月：与现代签署L4级自动驾驶汽车联合开发谅解备忘录(MOU) - 2025年10月：获得Uber和Nebius高达3.75亿美元的战略投资 - 2025年底：在德克萨斯州达拉斯通过Uber推出Robotaxi 我们现在看到7年的研发开始商业化爬坡（像Waymo一样），今年通过 $UBER 实现。 你可以以 $NBIS 210亿美元市值的零头价格，获得这家超高速增长的L4级FSD Robotaxi公司。🚗 鉴于Avride同比增长三位数，且我们看到该公司在7年的资本支出投入研发后终于开始商业化，它在2年内估值远超Nebius当前市值的可能性非零。 我们曾看到Waymo从450亿美元市值（2024年10月，融资56亿美元）增长到2000亿美元以上（DA Davison建议的估值）。 Avride目前仅为60亿美元，是 $NBIS 市值的一小部分。但它正处于与 $UBER 合作的增长临界点，就像Waymo最初在旧金山起步但现在无处不在一样。 Nebius ( $NBIS ) 是市场中被误解的成长型公司。但作为投资者，尽早布局下一代公司才能获得最高回报
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y. What's more insane is this. Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯 Here's why: $GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now. Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5. - And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo. - And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase) Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight). People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value). So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA. But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER: That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai). Key recent developments supporting the current valuation: - 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group - 2017-2024: Development... - October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis - March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles - October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius - By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year. and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗 Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years. We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation). Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere. Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor
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看好传统云商，CRWV或成新云代表，板块成员间接受益。
鉴于数据的重要性，概率上更倾向于像 $ORCL 这样的联邦云(FedRamp)提供商以及像 $AMZN、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 这样的传统超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)。 $CRWV 可能是最有可能成为新云(Neocloud)代表的公司，但他们仍处于应用阶段。$NBIS 的可能性不大。 话虽如此，新云板块的其他成员也是间接受益者。
英文原文
Prob just fedramp providers like $ORCL and traditional hyperscalers like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $MSFT given how critical the data is. $CRWV is probably the most likely Neocloud but they’re still in application phase. $NBIS is unlikely. That being said, other Neocloud sector members are indirect beneficiaries.
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对比特斯拉FSD与Waymo等技术等级，认为谷歌目前领先。
哈哈，$TSLA 目前感觉像是营销上的“万能灵药(snake oil)”。Waymo ($GOOGL) - L4级自动驾驶；Cruise ($GM) - L4级；Aurora - L4级；Tesla FSD - L2级。$TSLA 目前仍是L2级，仍需人类远程监控每次驾驶，其FSD营销带有“必须时刻手握方向盘”的免责声明，纯属营销噱头。不过，如果仅靠摄像头就能实现，正如你所说，其规模化潜力更大。鉴于埃隆能造出可重复使用火箭，我并不怀疑他的能力。除此之外，$GOOGL 目前在各方面都碾压其他对手。我认为更好的问题是：Aurora + Uber 能否与 $TSLA 或 $GOOGL 竞争，而非单独看某家公司。
英文原文
lol $TSLA feels like marketing snake oil currently. Waymo ( $GOOGL ) -Level 4 Cruise ( $GM ) - Level 4 Avride - Level 4 Tesla FSD - Level 2 $TSLA still has humans remotely monitoring every drive since it's level 2 right now and it's just snake oil marketing FSD (with disclaimers that you must be at the wheel lol at all times). If they get it right with just cameras, it has higher scale potential as you mentioned. And I don't really doubt Elon if he can make massive reusable rockets. That aside, $GOOGL is dominating every one of them right now. Think the better question to be asking is if avride + Uber can compete vs $TSLA or $GOOGL, rather than the standalone company.
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警惕OpenAI泡沫，看好Mag7资本支出受益的AI基础设施股。
我对“AI泡沫”的主要担忧是OpenAI及其1万亿美元资本支出(capex)的承诺。这显然是一个泡沫（以及大语言模型LLM的私人估值）。其他大多数方面则不然。 任何直接依赖他们的公司，如$ORCL、$CRWV，鉴于AI模型在技术上已超越GPT，可能会陷入困境。所以简单的做法就是远离它们！ 就我个人而言，ChatGPT 5.1的表现糟糕透顶，我实际上取消了订阅，转而使用Gemini/Claude。Claude Opus 4.5在编码任务上优于Codex。Gemini在图像生成上优于ChatGPT。此类例子不胜枚举。 无论如何，AI将长期存在，任何与Mag7相关的（$GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF），（$MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS），以及连接性如$ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7)都极具前景，因为它们是Mag7自由现金流(fcf)增加资本支出的直接受益者。
英文原文
The main fear I have in the "AI Bubble" is OpenAI and their $1T capex promises. That is a clear bubble (and private valuations of LLMs). Most other things, no. Any company directly reliant to them $ORCL, $CRWV might be in trouble given how AI models leapfrogged GPT. So the simple thing to do is stay away! Personally speaking, ChatGPT5.1 is horrendous and I actually cancelled my subscription to go with Gemini/Claude. Claude Opus 4.5 outperforms Codex in coding tasks. Gemini outperforms ChatGPT in image generation. Can go on and on. Regardless, AI is here to stay, and anything Mag7 related ( $GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF ), ( $MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS), connectivity like $ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7) is extremely promising since they're the direct beneficiaries of increasing capex from mag7 fcf
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看好$NBIS因Robotaxi子公司潜力被低估，预期市值可达400B。
$NBIS 的核心业务令人惊叹。但更疯狂的是，其子公司在一年内的潜在价值可能超过主营业务。目前市场上没有公开的自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)公司。获取相关敞口的唯一途径是通过 $TSLA 的 Robotaxi 业务和 $GOOGL 的 Waymo。$NBIS 持有 AVride 83% 的股权，估值约 60 亿美元，并与 $UBER（也是投资者）合作以竞争 Waymo。马斯克一直宣传 Robotaxi 是一个万亿美元的市场。如果这家公司不久后市值达到 400 亿美元，我也不会感到惊讶。话虽如此，$NBIS 目前 21 美元的估值简直低得可笑。
英文原文
$NBIS core business is insane. But what's even more insane is that potential for their subsidiaries to be worth more than their main business in a year lol. There's no public robotaxi companies right now. The only way to get exposure is $TSLA for their robotaxis and $GOOGL for Waymo. And $NBIS has AVride ~$6B valuation 83% ownership, which they partnered with $UBER (also an investor) to compete vs Waymo.Elon's been shilling Robotaxi's as a trillion dollar market. Would not be surprised if this is a $40B company not too far in the future. That being said, $NBIS is hilariously valued at $21 now.
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列举AI领域资本支出加速增长的10大证据，强调AI赛道持续高景气度与投资机遇
对于AI领域的任何人来说，很难不看好。 资本支出正在加速增长，而且是以指数级的速度。 直接流向以下几个方面： 新云服务商：$CIFR、$NBIS、$WULF、$IREN， 连接性：$ALAB、$CRDO、$CLS， 能源：$VST、$FLNC、$TE、$EOS， 半导体/晶圆厂：$NVDA、$AMD、$GOOGL、$TSM， 存储：$SNDK、$MU和$STX。 仅在过去几周，我们就看到： 1. AI曼哈顿计划——美国政府正给予顶级模型访问专有实验室数据的权限以加速研究。 2. $GOOGL在德克萨斯州投资400亿美元建设数据中心。 3. Anthropic投资500亿美元建设边缘计算基础设施以支持其Opus 4.5+模型。 4. $TSM公布创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出）。 5. $NVDA确认创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出，锁定2年产量）。 6. $META将2025年数据中心/AI资本支出提升至400-450亿美元，用于llama5-6。 7. 今年三次降息以加速增长并降低融资成本。 8. Dominion Energy警告AI数据中心带来大规模电力负荷激增。 9. $AVGO表示AI网络订单达到前所未有的规模。 10. 阿联酋和主权国家推进AI发展。 我们没有看到任何放缓。只有创纪录的增长。 事实上，随着Claude Opus 4.5、Gemini 3的最新模型进展，以及美国政府的新承诺，感觉我们才刚刚看到人工智能新前沿的冰山一角。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Nebius [$NBIS]是当前被低估最多的成长型公司。 它有潜力以210亿美元的市值成为下一个$GOOGL。原因很简单： 它的投资组合公司令人惊叹。 这个概念最令人难以置信的例子是$FTX公司。以下是故事： 当我们观察$META如何增长成为万亿美元公司时，不仅仅是Facebook。他们的投资组合公司Instagram、Whatsapp和其他应用使Meta主导了社交媒体领域。 $FTX在数字资产和前沿技术领域做着类似的事情。 四年前，即2021年，$FTX向一个大资产篮子投资了58亿美元。其中很大一部分投入了这三家核心公司： 1. Anthropic，持股13.56%，估值25亿美元。 2. Robinhood [$HOOD]，持股7.6%，估值85.4亿美元。 3. Solana [$SOL]，4100万+代币。 快进到今天，那将是： · Anthropic最新一轮估值3500亿美元。那部分股份价值约474亿美元。 · Robinhood现在市值超过1000亿美元。那部分股份价值约76亿美元。 · Solana现在每个代币价值131.5美元，使那部分股份远超57亿美元。 仅这三家公司就在4年内产生了超过550亿美元的价值，这甚至还不包括FTX的数百亿美元加上其他数十项投资，以及Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被$COIN收购）和加密货币的持股。 他们的投资组合公司比他们的核心业务更持久（想象一下，如果核心业务像$GOOGL搜索和YouTube一样持续增长，那将价值多少）。 $NBIS现在有着与$FTX在加密领域、$META在社交媒体领域相同的布局，但在人工智能领域拥有合法且飞速增长的核心业务。 Nebius拥有： 1. Clickhouse，28%持股，估值约70亿美元（2025年上半年为63亿美元）。 2. Avride，83%持股，估值约60亿美元（优步融资后）。 3. Toloka AI，约65%持股，估值约6.4亿美元。 4. TripleTen，100%持股，估值约3亿美元。 · Clickhouse为Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET和许多财富500强公司提供支持。 · Avride是一家自动驾驶出租车机器人公司，从Yandex分拆出来，$UBER在3.75亿美元融资轮中投资以与Waymo竞争。 · Toloka是一个AI标注平台，亚马逊、微软、Anthropic和Shopify都在使用。 19.6亿美元+49.6亿美元+4.16亿美元+3亿美元=76亿美元的投资组合公司估值，这些公司的增长速度超过大多数公开成长型公司。 但如果我们看看他们以每年700%+的速度增长至70-90亿美元ARR的核心业务，拥有48亿美元现金，为$META、$MSFT、Cursor、政府和更多客户提供支持…… 这可能是它以低于90美元的最后一个月，因为今天MSCI纳入将为其带来从数亿美元到低数十亿美元的额外资金流入。如果我们看看$IREN或$CIFR等热门选择，没有任何其他数据中心成长型公司有这种类型的投资组合。 $NBIS估值仅210亿美元，市场正在忽视这个机会。
英文原文
It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.
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分析$NBIS自建数据中心、GPU贬值、融资稀释及过度建设四大风险。
关于风险的好问题，我也喜欢讨论下行风险。 1. 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)在5年内完全自建数据中心，包括GPU（$GOOGL的TPU，$AWS的Tranium）、能源和选址。 这类似于高通(Qualcomm)与苹果的关系。苹果使用$QLCM，然后建立垂直整合——一旦完成就抛弃客户。因此在此期间建立公司自身护城河很重要（$NBIS在此期间通过Cursor、Shopify等企业客户进行全栈建设并扩展子公司。完全依赖一两个超大规模云厂商合同的公司表现不佳）。 2. $NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL的GPU贬值风险。 任何进行全栈服务的提供商都有更高的利润率、更高的收入和更快的爬坡速度。但这涉及在GPU上花费数十亿美元，而这些GPU在未来4年内价值大幅缩水。 我一直认为GPU多年后仍有价值，例如TPU仍在使用7-8年，2020年的$NVDA GPU仍高价转售并用于不同层级的推理（低优先级），并与新模型并行运行。 3. 信贷收紧+稀释 建设支出过多->需要更多稀释以建设和购买GPU。我们已经看到$4B可转债+$2.5B ATM发行。$NBIS应该足够，但始终存在利润率低于预期的风险（如$ORCL建设），然后公司需要更多稀释。在更难融资的市场中（如$APLD垃圾债），可能会遇到$CRWV的问题，被迫以糟糕的利率融资，侵蚀利润率。 4. 过度建设 如果LLM软件有突破，例如Claude Opus 4.5使用DeepSeek类型的轻量级推理，那么GPU利用率降低，我们会看到数据中心、$NVDA、$AMD等随AI浪潮下跌。 这些可能是$NBIS的四个主要风险。每家公司不同，对于$IREN我会指出其IaaS层的软件编排以优化利润率，但$NBIS已经掌握这一点。
英文原文
Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just uses $QLCM, then builds it's own vertical integration -> once it's done it sacks the customer. Hence why it's important to build up a company's own moat during the time ( $NBIS is doing full-stack with its own enterprise clients like cursor, shopify, etc during this time and scaling subsidiaries. Companies fully dependent on one or two hyperscaler contracts don't do well). 2. GPU deprecation for $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL. Any provider doing full stack has higher margins, higher revenue, higher ramp. But that comes into spending billions on GPUs and the GPUs not too much value over the course of the next 4 years. I've always maintained GPUs are still valuable many years later, eg. TPUs still are used 7-8 years later, 2020 $NVDA GPUs are still resold high and are used different stacks of inference (lower prio) but run alongside newer models. 3. Credit tightening + dilution Too much spend on buildout -> needs to dilute more to build + buy GPUs. We've already seen that with the $4B convertible + $2.5B ATM offering. $NBIS should have enough, but there's always the risk margins are lower than expected eg. $ORCL buildout, then the company needs to dilute more. In a market where it's harder to raise eg. $APLD junk bonds, it might run into the $CRWV problem where they are forced to raise money with terrible interest rates cutting into the margins. 4. Overbuildout If there's a breakthrough in LLM software, for example, Claude Opus 4.5 using deepseek type lightweight inference, then less utilization of GPUs then we see data centers, $NVDA, $AMD, and others go down with the AI ship. Those are probably the four main risks for $NBIS. This is different for each company, for $IREN I would point to software orchestration for their iaas layer for margin optimization but for $NBIS they have that down.
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分析超大规模云厂商数据中心模式差异及潜在合作逻辑
我不会像某些特定的 $BMNR 或 $IREN 投资者那样盲目吹捧，认为街上的绿灯就意味着对公司利好。所以我倾向于认为这只是巧合。因为看起来 $AMZN、$GOOGL 倾向于偏好数据中心托管(Colo)模式（因为他们可以插入自己的 TPU、未来的 Trainium 芯片），而 $MSFT、$META（以及 99.9% 使用 $NVDA 且没有现成定制芯片的 AI 公司）则偏好 $NBIS、$IREN 类型的模式。所以 $AMZN 宣布在印第安纳州为其 AWS 数据中心部门投资 150 亿美元。但关键要注意的是，他们此前在那里已经花费了 313 亿美元，所以这并不算全新投入。你可能看到了 $NBIS 正在印第安纳波利斯附近建设 1000 多英亩的绿地数据中心。这只是一个有利于建设的区域，可能并非针对合作伙伴关系或像 Anthropic（最近承诺 400 亿美元资本支出）那样的另一笔超大规模云厂商交易。说实话，我现在可能更相信 Anthropic 的资本支出承诺而不是 OpenAI。话虽如此，也许如果 $AMZN 耗尽容量并达到与 $NVDA 的最大采购订单上限（因为他们正在插入自己的 $CIFR 芯片），他们可能会转而使用 Nebius。
英文原文
I'm not going to be a blind shill like some specific $BMNR or $IREN investors that can say a green light on the street means bullish for the company. So I would lean coincidental. Since it looks like $AMZN, $GOOGL tends to favor colo models (since they can plug in their own TPUs, Trainium chips in the future) while $MSFT, $META (and 99.9% of AI companies that use $NVDA and don't have custom chips readily built out) prefer $NBIS, $IREN type models. So $AMZN announced they're investing $15B in Indiana for their AWS DC segment. But key thing to note is they've already spent $31.3B there before so it's not exactly new. You probably saw how $NBIS is doing a 1000+ acre greenfield DC near Indianapolis. It's just a favorable area for buildout, probably not directed at a partnership and another hyperscaler deal like Antrhopic (who committed $40B in capex spend recently). I'd probably trust Antrophic more than OpenAI right now with capex spend lol. That being said, maybe if $AMZN runs out of capacity and hits max purchase order with $NVDA (since they're plugging in their own chips with $CIFR), they would use Nebius instead.
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Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。
英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.
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对比WULF与IREN订单规模，批评无解释发帖。
@AustranSkolSwft 哪一个才具有侮辱性？是来自 $GOOGL/Anthropic 拥有数百亿积压订单的 $WULF，还是拥有来自 $MSFT 超90亿美元订单的 $IREN。发布这样的内容却不加任何解释，并没有太大帮助。
英文原文
@AustranSkolSwft Which one is insulting? $WULF with tens of billions of backlog from $GOOGL/Anthropic or $IREN with $9B+ from $MSFT. Posting that with no explanation is not very helpful.
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Coreweave因高债务和OpenAI依赖被评F级，NBIS更优。
如果你花30秒读一下帖子，就会发现我并没有给 $BITF 评级。 关于 $CRWV，短期有上涨空间，因为抛售至60美元区间确实过度了。但中长期的债务利息负担过重。 相比之下，$NBIS 和 $IREN 通过可转换债券融资或低利息，每季度对利润率的侵蚀很小；而 Coreweave 每年支付的债务利息超过12亿美元。 此外，OpenAI 占其总积压订单的三分之一。虽然他们拥有一些有防御性的大型超大规模客户（$META, $MSFT）以及 $NVDA 的背书，但像 $ORCL 那样为 OpenAI 建设基础设施，鉴于其缺乏收入以及 Gemini ($GOOGL) 的竞争，存在相当大的风险。 因此，尽管 Coreweave 是备受好评的全栈式服务供应商，但由于荒谬的债务利息侵蚀利润率，加上积压订单高度集中于 OpenAI（合同不确定性），其评级为 F 级，而这并不影响像 $NBIS 这样多元化的全栈式服务供应商。
英文原文
If you spent just 30 seconds reading the post, you would see I didn't rate $BITF. With $CRWV there's short term upside because sell-off was way too much to the $60s. But medium-long term they have way too much debt interest. While $NBIS and $IREN funds through convertibles or little interest cutting into margins every quarter, Coreweave pays over $1.2B+ in annual debt expense interest. OpenAI also makes up 1/3th of their total backlog, so while they have some defensible hyperscalers ( $META, $MSFT) + $NVDA backstop, building out for OpenAI like $ORCL, presents considerable risk given their lack of revenue + Gemini $GOOGL competition. So they are F tier despite being a highly rated full-stack offering due to absurd debt interest cutting into margins + large concentration of backlog from OpenAI (contract uncertainty) that don't affect diversified full-stack offerings like $NBIS.
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作者将DGXX评为D级，指出其营收无锚定租户且执行风险高，但现金充裕，区别于其他同行。
我确实做了评级，将 $DGXX 评为 D 级。最初我像对待 $CLSK 一样将其归为 U 级，但在进一步研究后忘记将其移除。 如果我没错的话，$DGXX 的 $65m 营收是无保障的，不像 $CIFR 之于 $GOOGL 或 $CORZ 之于 $CRWV 那样有锚定租户(anchor tenant)。 此外，由于它是微盘股(microcap)且在高性能计算(HPC)领域历史较短，其业务转型(pivot)的执行风险(execution risk)也更高。他们已通过 $100M 的自动取款机(ATM)增发进行了稀释，因此至少与未来需要大幅稀释的 $SLNH 相比，目前的稀释程度较低。但它更具投机性，类似于新加入的 $WLAC（WLAC 拥有 FluidStack 合作伙伴关系，因此存在 $GOOGL 兜底(backstop)的潜力）。 他们还有 $92M 的流动资产且无不良债务，考虑到其市值规模，这绝对是一笔巨款（但像其他公司一样，这些资金将用于建设），不过执行风险已反映在评级中。 这并不意味着它是一只坏股票，我也因高潜在上行空间而持有 $WLAC 并将其归为 D 级。只是想区分该板块内各公司在合同可见度(contract visibility)和执行方面的细微差别。
英文原文
I did, rated $DGXX D tier. Originally put it in U like $CLSK, but forgot to edit them out when I looked into them further. Correct me if I'm wrong but $DGXX $65m revenue is unsecured, there's no anchor tenant like $CIFR is to $GOOGL or $CORZ is to $CRWV. There's also more execution risk on pivot, just due to the fact it's a microcap company + little history in HPC. They've already diluted with a $100M ATM, so there's less dilution now at least compared to $SLNH, which will need to dilute heavily in the future. But it's more speculative along the lines of $WLAC (WLAC has fluidstack partnership so potential of $GOOGL backstop) that was added in. They also have $92M in liquid assets with no bad debt, which is absolutely huge given their marketcap size (but like others, that will be spent on the buildout), but execution risk is priced in to the Tier. Doesn't mean it's a bad stock, I own $WLAC because of high potential upside too and put it in D tier. Just wanted to distinguish between the nuances between companies in the sector (contract visibility + execution).
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CIFR获谷歌8.3亿长约，风险降低，看好下月股价破22美元。
天哪，$CIFR 刚刚通过 Fluidstack 与 $GOOGL 签署了一份价值 8.3 亿美元、为期 10 年的合同。下个月股价更可能突破 22 美元以上，而非低于 10 美元。长期超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的收入可见性很高，因此风险已大幅降低。唯一的缺点是，与全栈产品（Full-stack offerings）相比，其收入爬坡速度较慢，且由于资产负债表上持有比特币，受到 BTC 价格拖累。
英文原文
bruh, $CIFR just signed a $830m 10y contract with $GOOGL through Fluidstack. More likely $22+ next month than sub $10. Long-term hyperscaler revenue visibility, so it's pretty de-risked. Just slower revenue ramp compared to full-stack offerings + BTC price drag since it holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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对比NBIS全栈优势与CIFR低风险低上限，看好两者但首选NBIS。
感谢 @accounting_ds 总结我的观点。明天我会发布更深入的全面分析。 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 是我在 Neoclouder（新型云服务商）板块中最看好的两只股票。不过 CIFR 的地位略低于 Nebius。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-cloud（人工智能云）价值链，具备更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使它们承担编排、软件以及 GPU lifecycle（GPU 生命周期）风险，而非仅局限于 colocation（托管服务）。 我看好 $CIFR 是因为它规避了上述所有风险敞口，并拥有 $AMZN 和 $GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它还免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 就 CIFR 的经济模型而言，我们得到的是基于为 hyperscalers（超大规模云厂商）提供空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金式结构。经风险调整后，它是该组别中最安全的标的之一。但权衡之下，其上行空间有限。 10年、15年的长期租约减缓了收入增长步伐，并削弱了相对于 NBIS 等全栈 Neocloud 运营商的回报，后者能在一年内将季度收入从 1.45 亿美元提升至 21 亿美元。
英文原文
Appreciate, @accounting_ds for summarizing my opinion. I'll post a deeper dive into everything tomorrow. $NBIS, $CIFR are my favorite two in the Neoclouder sector. CIFR sits right below Nebius though. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. I like $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from $AMZN and $GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year.
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TSM盈利是AI核心指标，超大规模云厂商建设不受NVDA财报影响。
我的观点是，$TSM 的未来盈利（forward earnings）是迄今为止人工智能交易（AI trade）最大的指标，因为它涵盖了从 $GOOGL TPU 生产到 $AMZN，以及 $NVDA、$AMD 等所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers），且我们已看到其盈利和利润率大幅超出预期。 即使 $NVDA 的未来营收被大幅下调（我对此表示怀疑），也不会使 $MSFT 到 $IREN、$AMZN 到 $CIFR 等公司已签订的多年度算力（compute）积压订单失效。 我们已看到 Anthropic 与 $MSFT Azure 的算力协议（这将惠及 $NBIS、$IREN 和 $CRWV 等），$GOOGL 近日建设超 400 亿美元的数据中心（此前已与 $WULF、$CIFR/FluidStack 签署托管设施（colo）协议），$NVDA 的财报不会改变超大规模云服务商的建设步伐。 但它确实对整个 AI 交易产生重大影响，并直接影响 $NVDA GPU 板块（例如重度依赖 $NVDA 的 AI 云厂商）。
英文原文
My opinion is that $TSM forward earnings was the biggest indicator of the AI trade so far since they span from all hyperscalers such as $GOOGL TPU prod to $AMZN, as well as $NVDA, $AMD, and we've already seen them blow away earnings + margins. Even if $NVDA forward revenue is quoted heavily downward (which I doubt), it won't invalidate multi-year contracted compute backlog from $MSFT to companies like $IREN or $AMZN to $CIFR made already. We're already seeing Anthropic x $MSFT compute deals with Azure today (which flows down to $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV others), $GOOGL build out a $40B+ datacenter the other day (they've made colo deals with $WULF, $CIFR / fluidstack previously), and $NVDA earnings won't the change the hyperscaler buildout. But it does have a large impact on the overall AI trade as well + directly affect $NVDA GPU parts of the sector (eg. $NVDA heavy AI clouds).
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对比CIFR与NBIS，认为CIFR风险更低但上行空间有限。
$CIFR 实际上是我下一个最看好的新云(Neocloud)板块标的。 我之前做过一个梯队排名，$NBIS 是 S+ 级，$CIFR 是 S 级。 但这里有个细微差别，很多人可能不知道： Nebius 捕获了 AI 云业务的整个价值链。$IREN 在其财报电话会议中明确表示，他们之所以选择与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”，同时承担了编排、软件、折旧以及 GPU 采购，而非仅做数据中心(Colo)。 正如你所说，$CIFR 因为 AWS、$GOOGL 以及 Secure 而降低了风险，这也是我喜欢这个标的的原因。通过做数据中心(Colo)，他们避免了购买和管理 GPU 集群，这也是我下调 $IREN 评级的原因，因为 $IREN 面临一个新的风险因素，而 $NBIS 没有，且此前也不存在。 超大规模客户在空间、电力和冷却方面的高利润率、类年金收入。它是该板块中风险调整后风险最低的股票之一。 然而，其上行空间远不如其他标的。特别是当你看到租赁（例如 10-15 年）时，收入爬坡要慢得多，上行空间也远小于像 $NBIS 这样的全栈纯新云标的。
英文原文
$CIFR is actually next favorite Neocloud sector pick. I made a tierlist earlier and $NBIS was S+ and $CIFR was S. But here's the difference and nuance people might not know: Nebius captures the entire value chain of the AI cloud business. $IREN said it themselves in their ER call that they did full-stack with $MSFT because of to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns", while taking on orchestration, software, and deprecation with GPUs purchases vs. colo. $CIFR is de-risked as you mentioned because of AWS, $GOOGL and finally secure, which is why I love the pick. Doing colo, they avoid purchasing/managing GPU fleets, which is why I downgraded $IREN due to a new risk factor that isn't quite present with $NBIS and wasn't there before. There's high-margin, annuity-like revenue for space, power, and cooling for hyperscales. It's one of the lowest-risk adjusted stocks in the sector. However, upside is not anywhere as high. Especially when you look at leases (eg. 10Y-15Y) revenue ramp is a lot slower, and upside is a lot less compared to full-stack pure Neoclouds like $NBIS.
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NBIS容量售罄印证全栈基建高需求，预计随大厂扩产再次售罄。
对于 $NBIS 而言，这验证了全栈基础设施(Infrastructure)的高需求，而非限制。他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同容量，且当前容量已售罄。产能爬坡反映了其 70-90 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）的预估。同样，他们可以签订更多合同以增加 ARR，我预计他们会再次售罄，尤其是 Anthropic 正在建设 500 亿美元的数据中心(DC)，而 $GOOGL 上周也在建设 400 亿美元的 DC。
英文原文
For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation. They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate. Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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AI资本支出持续流入新云与数据中心，市场却因误判而抛售。
@KobeissiLetter 又有400亿美元资本支出流向像 $WULF / $CIFR 这样的新云服务商(neoclouds)以及 $GOOGL 的数据中心建设。与此同时，市场正因错误的原因而无差别抛售。 https://t.co/S9wmV8d1XD
英文原文
@KobeissiLetter Another $40B in capex going to neoclouds like $WULF / $CIFR and the data center buildout by $GOOGL. Meanwhile markets are selling off indiscriminately for the wrong reasons. https://t.co/S9wmV8d1XD
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AI股因信贷收紧恐慌抛售，建议转向有Mag7合同且低债的新云龙头。
我们正目睹 AI + 数据中心(DC) 股票实时崩盘，$IREN 本周下跌 37.88%，$NBIS 本月下跌 35.27%。 恐慌源于信贷收紧、高息债务、OpenAI 传染效应、宏观因素，以及最重要的：非理性恐惧。 以下是实时发生的情况： 1. 信贷收紧 - 像 $APLD 这样的公司未能成功发行债券（认购不足），最终发行了 23.5 亿美元的高收益债务融资——彭博社 11 月 14 日报道。债券以 97 美分的价格折价出售，收益率约为 10%。 该债券交易的风险主要与 Applied Digital 对 $CRWV 的依赖有关，后者占其合同收入的大部分。随着建设阶段机构关注度增加（例如 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的做空报告），数据中心更难筹集资金。 融资条件收紧影响了整个通过发行债务为自身建设融资的生态系统。 2. 高息债务 - 由于信贷收紧，$CRWV 为扩张而承担的劣质债务导致每年超过 10 亿美元的损失。这侵蚀了利润率和自由现金流(FCF)。 同样，$APLD 和其他以不良收益率筹集资金的公司也面临同样的未来问题，我们看到相关公司因风险管理而出售。 3. OpenAI 承诺的 1 万亿美元+ 资金没有余额支撑 - OpenAI 承诺超过 1 万亿美元的资本支出(capex)，其中 224 亿美元+ 流向 $CRWV，3000 亿美元+ 流向 $ORCL，他们正在为此建设产能。由于 OpenAI 手头没有余额并采取避险策略，市场现在对这些承诺持怀疑态度。 现在，我们看到这种建设从 Coreweave 等公司向下传染到 $CORZ 和 $APLD，这些公司在建设期间可能依赖 $CRWV 的未来收入。 4. $CRWV 是 AI 基础设施（以及部分 $ORCL）的行业领导者。当行业领导者抛售时，通常其他公司会跟随。 5. 12 月降息概率下降： 除了高息债务外，我们看到 12 月降息概率降至约 53% 的抛硬币水平。较高的利率使得像 $CRWV 这样背负利息债务的公司再融资以增强 FCF 变得困难。 _ 细微差别与重新定位： 我们看到全面抛售。然而，Mag7（$META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT）的资本支出和合同已确认，且盈利能力极强。 有一种简单的方法可以安全重新定位，以避免未来收入增长 + 债务周期的问题。 1. 配置与 Mag7 有合同可见性的新云(Neoclouds)： - $NBIS - 190 亿美元 $MSFT 交易，30 亿美元来自 $META，广泛的企业支持 - $CIFR - 55 亿美元与 $AMZN 的 Colo 交易，30 亿美元与 $GOOGL 的交易 - $WULF - 37 亿美元+ 与 $GOOGL 的交易等。 - $IREN - 90 亿美元与 $MSFT 的交易 我们可能会看到更多像 $SLNH, $CLSK 等投机性容量公司下跌，并整合到具有可见企业合同（未来收入下行风险低）的新云中。 2. 配置无/极低息债务且资产负债表强劲的新云： 像 $NBIS 这样的公司因拥有 47.9 亿美元的可转换票据现金及现金等价物，而与当前信贷市场波动隔离。或者像 $CIFR 这样拥有 12 亿美元现金的公司。 3. 避免与 OpenAI 有直接合同而非 Mag7 的公司。 _ 新云是 Mag7 AI 算力的骨干。这一论点没有改变，我们可能会看到一些规模达到 1000 亿美元+ 的公司成为下一个 AWS。 然而，我们看到由 $CRWV, $ORCL 和 OpenAI + 信贷收紧（部分由于 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的错误机构做空报告）引起的广泛、不分青红皂白的抛售。 对于像 $NBIS 这样拥有 70-90 亿美元远期年度经常性收入(ARR) 和极强资产负债表的公司，这种抛售完全不合理。但对于其他投机性公司，这是一次必要的修正。 一句好话是“散户最后卖出，最后买回”。 如果你认为你可以卖出并在两周后回来，错过抛售后的一个或两个巨大反弹日可能会让你失去大部分恢复收益。 机构可能正在通过暗池/大宗交易购买更好的名字，例如 $NBIS，在这些清洗和保证金清算之后。我们还看到机构所有权从 38%-> 43-46%，尽管股价下跌。 利用这次机会购买好名字，并持有度过这些波动时期。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 13F 新云申报的机构流向评估： · Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 强烈正面 (7/10) · WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.5/10) · IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 非常负面 (3/10) · CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.0/10) · Coreweave ( $CRWV ): 🟡 中性 (5.5/10) · Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 高度正面 (9.0/10) _ TLDR 摘要更新： $NBIS · 机构所有权整体定量增长强劲，由坚实的长期机构买家以及量化基金和对冲基金的高活跃度驱动。 $WULF · 机构基础结构稳定且安全，以 Vanguard 和 BlackRock 等大型纯多头资产管理人为特征，他们对股票持有高信念。 $IREN · 所有权由高频交易员、做市商和量化基金（例如 Jane Street, Citadel）主导。这种结构被视为负面，因为它表明缺乏稳定的短期持有压力和长期机构缺乏信念。 $CIFR · 优秀的机构设置，以纳入主要指数（被动需求）和主动基金的强烈信念购买为标志，Alyeska 的大幅增持尤为突出。 $CRWV · 高交易量表明市场兴趣浓厚，但所有权目前高度集中，做市商存在显著，导致中性评分，暗示流向的风险/回报平衡。 $CLSK · 被认为是该组中最好的机构结构，结合了广泛支持的被动指数纳入和激进的、高信念的主动积累，表明定性风险最低。 _ 评论： 例如，“看多 - Jane Street + Citadel 拥有 x 的 $IREN ”（提示：这不是正面的）。尤其是当长期持有者如 FMR (Fidelity)：212 万股，大幅削减持仓时。 基金类型很重要，例如： 被动（最正面） Vanguard, BlackRock 指数, State Street, Geode 等 多头（正面） Fidelity, T. Rowe, Wellington, BIT 等 对冲基金（中性到正面） Alyeska, Coatue, Millennium 等 量化/做市商（负面） Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, SIG, Two Sigma 等 这是一个主观框架，用于仅从本季度评分流向有多正面（而非整体所有权）。
英文原文
We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month. Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear. Here's what happening real time: 1. Credit Tightening - Companies like $APLD failed to sell bonds (under subscribed) and ended up issuing $2.35B in high yield debt offerings - Bloomberg Nov 14th. The bonds were sold at 97 cents on the dollar, a significant discount, with a yield of approximately 10%. The bond deal's risk is primarily tied to Applied Digital's reliance on $CRWV, which accounts for a substantial portion of its contracted earnings. More institutional cation (eg. Burry short report on GPU depreciation) around the buildout makes it harder for DC's to raise funds. Tightening funding conditions affect the entire ecosystem that issue debt to fund their own buildout. 2. High Interest Debt - Due to credit tightening, bad debt, which $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF. Likewise, $APLD and others that raise funds with bad yields face the same future issues and we're seeing a selloff in related companies for risk-management. 3. $1T+ in OpenAI promised funding without balances - Over $1 trillion+ in capex was promised by OpenAI going to $22.4B+ $CRWV and $300B+ to $ORCL, which they are building capacity for. The market is now skeptical of these promises from OpenAI due to not having the balances on hand and taking a risk-off approach. And now we're seeing contagion on that buildout from companies like Coreweave spread down to $CORZ and $APLD during this buildout that might rely on $CRWV for future revenue. 4. $CRWV is a sector leaders of AI infrastructure (and partially $ORCL). When the sector leader sell-off, usually others follow suit. 5. Rate Cut odds in December Fall: On top of the high interest debt, we're seeing rate cut odds in December drop to a coinflip ~53%. Having higher interest rates make it trouble for interest-debt burdened companies like $CRWV to refinance for stronger FCF. _ THE NUANCE and Repositioning: We're seeing a broad sell-off across the board. However, Capex and contracts from Mag7 ( $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT ) are confirmed with their extreme profitability. There's an easy way to safely reposition to avoid issues with future revenue growth + debt cycles. 1. Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: - $NBIS - $19B $MSFT deal, $3B from $META, broad enterprise support - $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL - $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL and more. - $IREN - $9B deal with $MSFT We will likely see more capacity speculative companies like $SLNH, $CLSK, and others fall off and consolidation into Neoclouds with visible enterprise contract (low downside risk of future revenue). 2. Position into Neoclouds with no/extremely low interest debt and high balance sheets: Companies like $NBIS are isolated from current credit market volatility as they have $4.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents from convertible notes. Or companies like $CIFR with $1.2B in cash. 3. Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7. _ Neoclouds are the backbone of Mag7 AI compute. This thesis has not changed and we'll likely see some scale to $100B+ companies in the future as the next AWS. However, we're seeing a widespread, indiscriminate sell-off caused by $CRWV, $ORCL, and OpenAI + credit tightening (partially due to incorrect institutional short reports from Burry on GPU depreciation). These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. But for other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction. A good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”. If you think you can sell and come back two weeks later, missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains. Institutions are probably buying the better names right now eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. We've also seen institutional ownership go from 38%-> 43-46% despite share prices dropping. Use this as a buying opportunity for good names, and hold through these periods of volatility.
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基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
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新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.
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高贝塔AI股因宏观恐慌错杀，基本面强劲者终将迎来价值回归。
我们正目睹高贝塔值AI股票板块的崩盘，部分个股在1个月内下跌30-45%+，今日再跌10%+。 这包括直接受益于“七巨头”资本支出的公司： - Nebius ($NBIS)：$META 30亿美元交易 / 80亿美元远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR)。 - TeraWulf ($WULF)：Anthropic数据中心(<500亿美元) + 与$GOOGL的合资光纤网络(FS)。 - Iren ($IREN)：$MSFT 90亿美元高性能计算(HPC)。 - Cipher ($CIFR)：与$AMZN签署15年55亿美元合同。 这些公司在过去一个月里改善了基本面。 但市场仍在恐慌性抛售从$CRDO (-10.33% 1D)到$CIFR (-7.28% 1D)的股票，尽管它们拥有创纪录的远期收入增长。 这主要是由宏观担忧（政府停摆、12月降息、公司债利差等）和虚假（但微妙）的机构观点（如Burry关于GPU折旧的说法）驱动的，而非基于个股基本面。 这清洗了AI投机性板块（如能源股$OKLO，1个月跌37%）中的泡沫，但高利润率的增长型股票也受牵连。 我之前说过，这让我想起$HOOD从$65跌至$28后反弹至$150，或$ALAB在所有财报超预期后从$100跌至$50再反弹至$245。 当市场充满恐惧，尤其是像现在这样的“AI泡沫”恐慌时，股价有时会与基本面脱节。 但当远期增长能支撑市值预期时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
We're seeing a sector crash in high-beta AI stocks, with names down 30-45%+ in 1M & 10%+ today. This includes direct beneficiaries of Mag7 Capex : - Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR. - TeraWulf ( $WULF ): <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL - Iren ( $IREN ): $9B $MSFT HPC - Cipher ( $CIFR ): 15Y $5.5 billion w/ $AMZN. that improved their fundamentals in this past month alone. But markets are still panic selling names from $CRDO (-10.33% 1D) to $CIFR (-7.28% 1D) despite record forward revenue growth. This is driven over fears from macro (shutdown, Dec rate cut, corporate bond spreads, etc) and false (but nuanced) institutional claims eg. Burry on GPU depreciation, rather than individual fundamentals. This wipes away froth from the speculative parts of the AI sector such as $OKLO (energy, -37% 1M), but higher-margin growth names get caught together with it. I've said this before, but this reminds me of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a rally to $150. Or when $ALAB sold off from $100 to $50 off all earnings beats, then rallied to $245. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets, especially with “AI bubble” fears like what's happening now. But when the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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反驳 Burry 观点，指出旧款 GPU/TPU 仍高利用率且具残值。
关于 $ORCL、$NBIS 及其他新云厂商 GPU 折旧论点的简要总结： Burry 的一般主张：处于 2-3 年产品周期的芯片资本支出（Capex）不应导致有用寿命的延长。 这一观点错误但具有细微差别： -> 以 $GOOGL 为例，其 7 年前的张量处理单元(TPU) 仍以 100% 利用率运行。 “谷歌称 TPU 需求超过供应，声称 8 年前的硬件迭代‘利用率达 100%’”——数据中心动态 -> 以 $NVDA 为例，A100（PCIe 和 SXM4 变体）仍在运行。它们于 2020 年发布，现在是 2025 年。旧型号保持价值并仍能带来收益。 它们具有残值，5 年后仍能高价转售。他在货架寿命上错了，但在某些超大规模云服务商如何拉伸利用率概念以证明激进资本支出合理性方面，他可能是对的。
英文原文
Just a TLDR on the GPU depreciation argument for $ORCL, $NBIS and other neoclouds, Burry's general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives. This is incorrect but nuanced: -> in $GOOGL's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are still run at 100% utilization. " Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics -> in $NVDA's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later. He's wrong on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex.
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反驳Burry观点，论证旧GPU/TPU因残值仍具价值。
所以@michaeljburry 完全错了，因为 $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/芯片的“保质期(shelf life)”并非他所声称的那样。但这很微妙，因为“利用率(utilization)可能被夸大以证明资本支出(capex)合理性”这一观点确实有一定道理。 你在这里同意我的观点，即它们仍然有用，但你只是在解释为什么出于必要性仍在继续使用它们。 我说的是GPU和TPU保留了残值(residual value)，并举了5-7年前的例子。 如果7年前的TPU因算力约束仍在运行，它们就仍有用途并保留价值。如果5年前的GPU仍在运行且能以高价转售，它们就保留了残值，因为它们被用于低优先级的推理(inference)并实现了货币化。
英文原文
So @michaeljburry is completely wrong in the sense that the shelf life of a $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/ chips is not what he’s claiming. But it’s nuanced because there’s some truth the idea of utilization might be stretched to justify capex. You’re agreeing with me here in that they’re still useful but you’re just explaining why they’re still used out of necessity. I was saying GPUs and TPUs retained residual value and gave ones from 5-7 years ago as an example. If 7 year old TPUs are still running because of compute constraints, they’re still useful and retain value. If 5 year old GPUs are still running and can be resold at high values, they’re retain residual value because they get monetized for lower prio inference.
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感冒简评：META/NBIS错杀强买，警示IREN/ETH，宏观看多AI基建。
11月4日 - 个股分析 + 宏观 清仓抛售：$META • $NBIS • $IBIT 强烈买入：$RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ 存储：南亚科 $2408，SK海力士 $HXSCL，美光 $MU 买入：$AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE 警示：$IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCL 量子计算：$IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS 通常我会逐一列表，列出更多的买卖建议并解释每一个原因，但我感冒了。 所以今天只做极简版，懒得研究更多股票。喝着汤，只关注几只股票并给出更广泛的概述。（如果有人问，我会帮忙解释。） $META： 再次强烈、强烈、强烈建议在财报大跌15%+及盘后下跌时买入。 营收超预期。每股收益(EPS)超预期。远期盈利完好。 如果计入一次性税收，EPS为$7.25对$6.67，但显示为$1.05（大幅不及预期），导致算法立即抛售。随后的抛售中，机械性资金流通常会将价格推得更低，但趋势通常在1-2周内反转。 利用这一点。 像“Meta在AI上花费太多”这样的叙事可能是噪音。每家Mag7公司都在增加AI资本支出，除非你从云/ASIC角度争论，否则Meta并没有做任何异常的事。有时真正的原因更愚蠢，比如算法未能识别一次性税收的标准化。 当低贝塔值的Mag7因非实质性原因下跌16%+时，有很大的获利潜力。 警示类别摘要： 不是叫卖，只是给出公平警示，让人们自行决定。 量子计算：仍无收入证明价格飙升的合理性。某些数据中心股票，即使回调后，也有远期营收+自由现金流支撑估值。 $ETH：高于$3K不是强买入（自$4.8K以来立场相同）。 $BMNR：ETH国库策略；以溢价追踪ETH价格。除非有国有化潜力（如$MSTR），否则国库策略不好。 $CRCL：下个月有巨大、巨大、巨大的股份解禁。 $IREN：$MSFT合同在标题上看起来很棒（$9B+营收，超大规模云厂商交易），但实际上利润率很差。 交易不是纯托管；$IREN吸收了~$5.8B的GPU+辅助设备资本支出。 毛利率：最好只有30%出头，自由现金流盈利能力可能降至个位数。相比之下，$NBIS的交易结构更好（$11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr）。 交易验证了超大规模云厂商将与IREN签约（正面），但交易本身很糟糕。不是卖出，只是警示那些因标题而FOMO的人。 如果你想FOMO进什么，$CIFR（AWS合同）更有意义。 _ 宏观观点： 市场一直在抛售高贝塔值股票，可能只是正常回调。 逆风： 鲍威尔暗示第三次降息不确定 -> 重新定价。 政府停摆可能延长（短期逆风）。历史上，重新开放后回调会迅速反转。 事件市场定价11月14日为结束日期（还有9天）。 如果像$NBIS（-7.9%）这样拥有惊人远期营收支撑的名字没有实质性变化，大跌时是极好的买入机会。还有像$RDDT这样发布了好财报却跌了7%的股票，也是强烈的买入机会。 泡沫在美联储收紧时破裂。我们已经有了两次降息，还有一次很可能。不要跟随那个预测了过去1次崩溃中5000次的《富爸爸穷爸爸》家伙。 AI ≠ 泡沫 yet - 由Mag7财报、真实营收和利润支撑。但如果OpenAI继续在没有资金的情况下过度承诺合同，以后可能开始像泡沫（1-2年后的投影风险）。 摘要：随着降息后的宽松，市场可能趋势向上。 数据中心建设保持完整（Mag7财报显示巨大的AI资本支出）。 回调中保持强劲的板块：存储 • 能源 • 半导体 • 连接 • 新云 保持多头，在这些回调中建立仓位
英文原文
November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE Warnings: $IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCLQuantum: $IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS Normally I'd go down the list, have more buy/sells, and talk about every single explanation but I caught a cold. So just doing an extremely light version today and didn’t feel like researching more stocks. Just focusing on a few with a broader overview while I drink some soup. (Will help explain if someone asks though.) $META: Once again, Strong, Strong, Strong Buy on the 15%+ earnings drop and post-ER drop. Beat on Revenue. Beat on EPS. Forward earnings intact. If you factor in one-time tax, EPS was $7.25 to $6.67, but it showed as $1.05 (huge miss), which led to algorithmic sell-offs immediately after. Following sell-offs, mechanical flows often push prices lower, but trends usually reverse in 1–2 weeks. Take advantage of this. Narratives like “Meta spending too much on AI” are likely noise. Every Mag7 company is increasing AI capex, Meta isn’t doing anything unusual unless you argue from a cloud/ASIC standpoint. Sometimes the real reason is dumber like algorithms not recognizing one-time tax normalization. Lot of profit potential when lower-beta Mag7 drops 16%+ on nothing material. Warnings Category TLDR: Not calling sells, just giving fair warnings so people can decide for themselves. Quantum: Still no revenue to justify price surges. Certain data center stocks, even after corrections, have forward revenue + FCF to back valuations. $ETH: Not a strong buy above $3K (same stance since $4.8K). $BMNR: ETH treasury play; tracks ETH price with a premium. Treasury plays aren’t good unless potential for nationalization (eg. $MSTR). $CRCL: Massive, massive, massive share unlock coming next month. $IREN: The $MSFT contract looks great in headlines ($9B+ revenue, Hyperscaler deal), but in reality, margins are poor. Deal isn’t pure colo; $IREN absorbs ~$5.8B capex in GPUs + ancillary equipment. Gross margins: low 30s at best, can drop to single-digit FCF profitability. By comparison, $NBIS had a structurally better deal ($11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr). The deal validated that hyperscalers will sign with IREN (positive), but the deal itself was terrible.Not a sell, just a warning for people FOMOing the headline. If you want to FOMO into something, $CIFR (AWS contract) makes more sense. _ Macro View: Markets have been selling off high-beta stocks, likely just a normal correction. Headwinds: Powell signaling a third rate cut isn’t certain -> repricing. Gov shutdown likely extends (short-term headwind). Historically, corrections reverse quickly after reopen. Event markets price Nov 14th as end date (9 days out). If there’s no material change for names like $NBIS (-7.9%), backed by insane forward revenue, great buy on the dip. Also stuff like $RDDT that posted great ER but dropped 7.% also strong buying opportunity. Bubbles pop under Fed tightening. We've had two rate cuts, and another still likely. Don’t follow the Rich Dad Poor Dad dude who predicted 5000 of the last 1 crashes. AI ≠ bubble yet - backed by Mag7 earnings, real revenue, and profits. But if OpenAI keeps over-promising contracts without funds, it could start resembling one later (projection risk 1–2 years out). TLDR: Markets likely trend higher as easing follows rate cuts. Data center buildout remains intact (Mag7 earnings show huge AI capex). Sectors that stay strong on corrections: Memory • Energy • Semi • Connectivity • Neoclouds Stay long and build positions on these dips
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对比CIFR与IREN，认为前者估值合理，后者合同条款差且利润率低。
对于 $CIFR，当前盈利无关紧要，市场定价基于远期盈利。乍看之下，除了通过 Fluidstack 现有的 $GOOGL 合作外，AWS 的交易看起来棒极了。因此其 20% 的涨幅实至名归。 另一方面，$IREN 的合同细看之下越来越糟。 营收不重要，重要的是该营收带来的自由现金流(FCF)/利润率，尤其是考虑到他们正在花费 58 亿美元购买 GPU。我看过一些保守情景测算，显示其年化营业利润仅约 9800 万美元/年，这真的太低了。 即便乐观估计，毛利率也在 30% 以下甚至 20% 出头，而非其他人引用的 90%+ 的高性能计算(HPC)板块。这才是规模化后的利润率现实。 $IREN 是在购买资产，而非人们一直声称的提供托管服务(colocation service)。 $NBIS 与微软(MSFT)的交易在标准化至 300MW 后，其盈利能力和毛利率远优于 $IREN。当然，我还需要花更多时间进行建模。
英文原文
For $CIFR, doesn't matter about current earnings, market prices in forward earnings. And at first glance AWS deal looks amazing on top of their existing $GOOGL deals through Fluidstack. So well deserving of their 20% bump. For $IREN on the other hand, the contract worse and worse when you examine it more. Revenue does not matter. FCF/margins from that revenue is what matters, especially since they're spending $5.8bn GPUs. I've seen some conservative-case calculations where they generate ~Annualized operating profit 98m+/year, which is really low. Even so optimistically, gross margins are in the <30s or even 20s, and not the 90%+ HPC segments that others are quoting. This is the reality of margins at scale. IREN is buying the asset, rather than the colocation service people kept claiming $IREN would do. $NBIS deal with MSFT was extremely better than IREN’s in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. But of course I need to spend more time on modeling.
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维持NBIS看涨目标，看好新云服务商整体利好及NBIS高非对称性。
我仍维持 $NBIS 1年目标价 $400 的看涨观点，但逢低平均成本是个好主意。 $IREN 今天刚获得 $MSFT 的 90 亿美元订单，$GOOGL 也刚刚宣布融资，这对所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)来说总体是利好。 几家挖矿公司因该交易大幅降低了风险，但我仍认为 Nebius 具有最高的非对称性(Asymmetry)。
英文原文
I still maintain $NBIS $400 bull case 1Y PT but it’s good to cost average. $IREN just got a $9B deal from $MSFT today and $GOOGL just announced financing so it’s generally bullish for all Neoclouds. Several miners got de-risked a lot today from the deal, but I’d still say Nebius has highest asymmetry.
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META财报后算法抛售属非理性，基本面强劲，正逢低买入。
就 $META 而言，我的观点是：每股收益(EPS) 1.05美元对比预估 6.67美元，是财报发布后算法抛售的主要触发因素，因为他们未计入 7.25美元的一次性税收细节。做市商(MM)的期权相关资金流和机械对冲触发 -> 做空股票以保持对冲，并引发次日抛售+散户清洗。每个人都需要一个“叙事”来解释这次下跌，所以这次是“天哪 $META 在AI资本支出(capex)上烧钱！”，尽管这很愚蠢且业绩其实很棒。下跌是算法性的，基本面不仅完好，而且好于预期。当然人们阅读叙事导致更多恐慌性抛售，但一旦消化信息，他们会发现抛售很愚蠢。所以我正在利用这次下跌。最好忽略媒体叙事，关注实际存在的情况，就像 $GOOGL 在 145美元时那样。我们可以争论 $META 的AI是否糟糕以及资本支出是否在全行业陷入黑洞，但基本面完好且在增长。
英文原文
So with $META at least, my take is that EPS $1.05 vs est. $6.67 was the primary trigger algorithmic selloff immediately after earning report since they didn't get the $7.25 EPS one-time tax nuance. Option related flows and mechanical hedging by MMs triggered -> short stock to stay hedged and there's day 2 selling + retail flush. Everyone needs some "narrative" to explain that drop so in this case, it was "omg $META spending money on capex on AI!", even though it's just stupid and earnings were amazing. Drop was algorithmic and fundamentals are not just in-tact, they're better than expected. Of course people read the narratives and this leads to more panic-selling, but once people digest the information, they'll see the selloff is stupid. So I'm taking advantage of the drop. Better to ignore the media narrative and go with what's actually there like with $GOOGL at $145. We can have another argument whether or not $META AI is crap or not and capex is going into a black hole across the board but fundamentals are intact and growing.
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推荐年末满仓MINT组合（META/IBIT/NBIS/TSM），利用错杀与高非对称回报。
只有四只股票： 🍬 MINT 拥有极其高、非对称的回报。 意味着低资本风险，高上行回报。 这仅适用于2025年11月和12月。 就是它... MINT 关于为何在2025年底满仓MINT的解释： M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM 将这些神圣的成长型公司纳入你的投资组合，你可以让呼吸更清新，从而吸引Sydney Sweeney： Mag7。加密货币。AI数据中心。半导体。 $META - Meta ___________ 愚蠢的抛售。 营收超预期。每股收益超预期。强劲指引。 当你看到营收512.4亿美元（同比+26.25%），净利润27.1亿美元（同比-82.73%）时，纸面上看起来极其糟糕。 🟢 营收：512.4亿美元 vs. 预期494.1亿美元 剔除一次性税收影响 → 🟢 每股收益：7.25美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 包含一次性税收影响 → 🔴 每股收益：1.05美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 我猜测最初的抛售是由算法驱动的，随后由机械性资金流引起。许多高频交易(HFT)和新闻解析系统会对直接从数据源（彭博、路透等）拉取的头条每股收益数字做出反应。 如果报告的GAAP每股收益（1.05美元）与共识预期（6.67美元）并列显示，系统会将其标记为大幅不及预期。显然这是推测性的，但许多模型并未编程以归一化处理一次性税收费用（这是新的），也不会知道去查看实际超预期的调整后每股收益（7.25美元）。 现在新闻声称抛售是由于AI资本支出惊喜所致。如果接受这个说法，因“AI资本支出增加”而下跌15%+纯粹是叙事，毫无意义，因为$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$TSLA以及每一个Mag7都在增加资本支出。 $META做同样的事却遭到抛售说不通，除非人们认为它只是进入一个没有投资回报的黑洞（市场不同意，因为AI基本上在推动$SPY）。 一旦周末有时间让人们消化实际发生的情况，恢复将是极强的买入机会。误读+愚蠢的叙事可能导致短期过度反应（1-2个交易日），通常会被逆转。 $IBIT - 比特币 ___________ 它是比特币。目前位于11万美元。 随着美国政府的支持，以及持续的货币通胀+资金流向新一代人，没有比BTC更好的通胀对冲工具了。 Polymarket仍然定价比特币在2个月内上涨40%至13万美元，即使它上涨几个百分点，你也可以在加密货币和底层资产上获得上行空间。 $NBIS - Nebius ___________ 核心业务估值：310-365亿美元 分部加总（现金、资产、投资组合）：~106亿美元（削减40% = ~63亿美元） 基准情景估值：~390亿美元 → 即使零增长也有高上行空间 核心业务有望在FY26-27实现~50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，60-70%毛利率，30%息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)目标。 通过再达成一个超大规模云厂商协议+SMB扩张，实现80-120亿美元ARR可能证明~1000亿美元估值合理。 无有毒债务，高GPU利用率，全栈架构 → 更高的经营杠杆。 你可以看我引用的要点比较，以便你对$NBIS vs $IREN做出自己的判断。 然而，我将始终维持$NBIS拥有包括$IREN到$CIFR在内的最高非对称回报，因为现有的超大规模云厂商协议、企业客户（Shopify, Accenture）、政府客户、1GW容量、来自全栈的高毛利率等。 这并不是说来自$WULF的Fluidstack + Google协议以及其他容量方面没有高上行空间。 Nebius的下行风险最低。而且它真的、真的有高上行空间。 $TSM ______________ 它是AI交易的中心。 他们已经指引利润率增加——这是天文数字般的。 营收：331亿美元 vs. 315亿美元预期。 每股收益：2.92美元 vs. 2.59美元预期。 指引：322-334亿美元 vs. 320亿美元预期。 他们超收了营收指引，利润率增加，他们印钱的速度真是天文数字。 财报前交易在305-310美元，现在回到300美元。 这是一家万亿+美元的公司，同比增长30%+且利润率提升——到底怎么回事。 我之前在$GOOGL 145美元和$HOOD 20美元时说过同样的话。他们印钱。 没必要辩论$ALAB vs $CRDO，$IREN vs $NBIS，$AMD vs $NVDA。 $TSM是整个AI建设周期的中心，所以这只是等待游戏。 _ 就是它$MINT。 享受歌曲的预告，有点炸。🎶
英文原文
There’s only Four stocks: 🍬 MINT That have ABSURDLY HIGH, asymmetrical return. Meaning Low Capital Risk. High Upside Return. This is only for Nov + Dec 2025. Here it is... MINT An explanation of why to full port MINT for end of year 2025: M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM With these four holy growth companies in your portfolio, you can make your breath smell better so you can pull Sydney Sweeney: Mag7. Crypto. AI Data Center. Semiconductor. $META - Meta ___________ Stupid sell-off. Revenue Beat. EPS Beat. Strong guidance. It looks extremely bad on paper when you look at Revenue $51.24B (+26.25% Y/Y), Net income $2.71B (-82.73% Y/Y). 🟢 Revenue: $51.24B vs. est. $49.41B Without one-off tax → 🟢 EPS: $7.25 vs. est. $6.67 With one-off tax → 🔴 EPS: $1.05 vs. est. $6.67 My guess was the initial sell-off was algorithmically driven, then caused by mechanical flows. Many high-frequency trading (HFT) and news-parsing systems react to headline EPS numbers pulled directly from data feeds (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.). If the reported GAAP EPS ($1.05) is printed alongside a consensus of $6.67, the system flags it as a massive miss. Obviously this is speculative, but many models aren't programmed to normalize for one-time tax charges (which is new) and won’t know to look at adjusted EPS ($7.25), which actually beat. Now news are claiming the sell-off was due to AI capex surprise. If we go with this, -15%+ on “AI capex spending increasing” is just pure narratives and means absolutely jack since $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $TSLA, and every single Mag7 is increasing on capex. $META doing the same and selling off doesn’t make sense, unless people believe it’s just going into a black hole with no ROI (which markets disagree since AI is basically running $SPY). Extremely strong buy on recovery once there’s time over the weekend for people to digest what actually happened. Misreads + stupid narratives can cause short-term overreactions (1–2 sessions), often reversed. $IBIT - Bitcoin ___________ It’s Bitcoin.And sitting at $110k. Bitcoin is here to stay with US government support, and with all the ongoing currency inflation + flow of money going to newer generation, there’s no better hedge against inflation than BTC. Polymarket still prices Bitcoin 40% to $130k in 2 months’ time, even if it moves up a few percent you can have upside on CCs and upside on the underlying asset. $NBIS - Nebius ___________ Core business valuation: $31–36.5B Sum-of-parts (cash, assets, portfolio): ~$10.6B (slashed 40% = ~$6.3B) Base case valuation: ~$39B → high upside even with zero growth Core business on track for ~$5B ARR (FY26–27), 60–70% gross margins, and 30% EBITDA target. Hitting $8–12B ARR (via one more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion) could justify ~$100B valuation. No toxic debt, high GPU utilization, full-stack architecture → higher operating leverage. You can look at the bullet point comparison that I quoted so you can make your own judgement on $NBIS vs $IREN for example. However, I’ll always maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return over anything including $IREN to $CIFR due to existing hyperscaler deals, enterprise clients (Shopify, Accenture), Government Clients, 1GW capacity, high gross margins from full-stack, and many others. That’s not saying there’s not high upside from $WULF from Fluidstack + Google deals, and others from capacity. The downside risk on Nebius is the lowest. And it has really, really high upside. $TSM ______________ It’s the CENTER. OF. THE. AI. TRADE. They’ve already guided INCREASING MARGINS - which is astronomical. Revenue: $33.1B vs. $31.5B est. Earnings per Share: $2.92 vs. $2.59 est. Guidance: $32.2B – $33.4B vs. $32.0B est. They’ve beat revenue guidance, increasing margins, and it’s just astronomical how much money they’re printing. It was trading at $305–310 pre-earnings, now back at $300. It’s a $1T+ company that grew 30%+ Y/Y with their margins — what the actual. I said this about the money printer $GOOGL back at $145 and $HOOD back at $20. They print money. There's no need to debate $ALAB vs $CRDO, $IREN vs $NBIS, $AMD vs $NVDA. $TSM the center of the whole AI buildout, so it’s just a waiting game. _ There is it $MINT. Enjoy a teaser of the song, kinda a banger. 🎶
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看好WULF和CIFR因谷歌合同带来的高非对称回报潜力。
是的，我一直坚持认为这并非赢家通吃（GCP、Azure、AWS）。 $WULF 和 $CIFR 是两只我认为相比其他矿企具有更高非对称回报潜力的股票，主要得益于其与 $GOOGl（Mag7 成员）的合同可见性。 然而，令人沮丧的现实是，并非每一个高性能计算(HPC)矿企转型都能成功，因为难度极大。但部分企业会成功，市场也会对此进行定价。
英文原文
Yep, I’ve always maintained it’s not winner takes all (GCP, Azure, AWS). $WULF and $CIFR are the two I’d argue that has higher asymmetrical return compared to other miners just due to Mag7 contract visibility with $GOOGl. However, the sad reality of the situation is not every single HPC miner pivot will be successful, because it’s extremely hard. But some will be and the market will price that in
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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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反驳AI算力溢出消失论，强调结构性增长及电网瓶颈。
既然有人@我，我不同意你作为TAM（总可寻址市场）基础的根本假设，但你的观点有合理之处。 AI算力增长实际上是一个结构性市场，目前正因前沿大语言模型(LLM)的使用而呈指数级增长，并将随着应用AI（机器人等）继续增长。暗示MSFT/Google的5-10年合同确认的使用量“溢出”（临时流动性）会消失是误导性的。 如果你想改述为Neoclouds目前捕获的溢出在超大规模云厂商完成建设后可能不存在，我同意。5-10年后我会更担心（在GCP 10年合同和Azure 5年合同结束后）。特别是当$AVGO与超大规模云厂商的定制ASIC、TPU/Tranium等+建设完成后。（作为交易者，我在2年周期内看涨，5年以上则不那么看多）。 第二点是试图对AI建设这样投机性的事物进行TAM的定量建模是错误的研究方法。 此外，10-15%的数据过于悲观，因为它忽略了如果AI算力是增长的结构性市场，超大规模云厂商的重复溢出。但你基于电网容量会跟上的假设，我不同意，这没问题。
英文原文
Since someone pinged me, I disagree on your fundamental assumption that you're basing TAM off of, but valid points. AI compute growth is actually a structural market that's growing exponentially right now fro new frontier model LLM usage, and will continue to grow from applied AI applications (robotics, etc). Implying MSFT/Google's 5-10 year contracts confirmed usage contracts "overflow" that will vanish (temporary liquidity) is misleading. If you wanted to reword it in saying the overflow that Neoclouds captured now might not exist after hyperscalers complete their buildout, sure. I'd agree with you, next 5Y-10Y out I'd be more worried (after GCP 10y contracts end of Azure 5Y contracts end). Especially when $AVGO x Hyperscaler custom asics, TPUs/Tranium, etc + buildout gets complete. (As a trader I'm bullish on a 2 year timeframe, not so much 5Y+ plus). Second thing is trying to quantitatively model TAM of something so speculative such as AI buildout is the wrong way to approach it. On top of that, the 10-15% figure is overly pessimistic because it ignores repeat-overflow from hyperscalers if AI compute is a growing structural market. But you're going off the assumption grid capacity will catch up, which I disagree, and that's fine.
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .
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认为NBIS核心业务被低估，机构持仓将大幅上升。
抛开子公司不谈，仅看核心业务，我认为 $NBIS 被低估了。Nebius 在短短1年内从1亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）增长到10亿-15亿美元 ARR，这种增长速度令人震惊。这是小公司赋能 $GOOGL Cloud、$MSFT Azure、$AMZN Web Services 等基础设施的世代性机遇，而这些是 Mag7（美股七巨头）中最盈利的板块。散户并未看到这一机会。机构肯定看到了，我不惊讶于 Nebius 的机构持股比例从38%在6个月内升至65%。
英文原文
Subsidiaries aside and just the core business, I think $NBIS is undervalued. It is mindblowing how Nebius is growing from $100m ARR to $1B-1.5B in just 1Y. And this is a generational chance for small companies to power the infrastructure of $GOOGL Cloud, $MSFT Azure, $AMZN Web Services and others, the most profitable segments of Mag7. Retail doesn't see this opportunity. Institutions definitely do and I would not be surprised if Nebius was 65% owned by institutions from 38% in 6 months time.
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作者认为NBIS估值偏低，利好AI算力及供应链相关个股。
我礼貌地表示反对，“公允价值”应该更高。新的$NBIS数据中心将提升经常性收入(ARR)，三次降息是巨大的催化剂。刚刚，Anthropic可能与$GOOGL签署200亿美元以上的协议，这对Clickhouse、$WULF、$IREN和Neoclouds都是利好。$META与$CRWV的交易也是如此。Google/七巨头(Mag7)受算力限制，这对Nebius（尽管在此消息下仍下跌5.6%）是更大的催化剂，预计其将有更多超大规模云服务商合同落地。
英文原文
I respectfully disagree, "fair value" should be higher. There's been new $NBIS data centers for ARR boost, 3x rate cuts which is a huge catalyst. Just now, Anthropic might sign a $20B+ dollar deal with $GOOGL, which is bullish for Clickhouse, $WULF, $IREN, and Neoclouds. $META x $CRWV deals. Google/Mag7 is compute limited, and this is only a bigger catalyst for Nebius (which is still down 5.6% despite this news), which likely has more hyperscaler contracts on the way.
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Nebius基本面强劲，机构正借散户恐慌低位吸筹，建议买入。
Nebius 的走势完全符合机构投资者的预期： 散户恐慌。 投降式抛售。 流动性释放。 我几周前就说过：$NBIS 的机构持股比例约为 38%。为了将这一比例提升至 65-80%（就像 $HOOD 那样），他们会不惜使用所有手段： 以下是发生这一切的原因： 在上个月微软（MSFT）达成 170-190 亿美元的交易后，Nebius 进入了华尔街的视野。在此之前，由于非传统的公开上市方式，其机构持股比例一直低于 30%。 与此同时，我们看到了 Nebius 基本面的爆发式增长： 1. 🚀 远期营收增长超 1,000%，毛利率达 55-75%，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 增至 40-60 亿美元以上。 2. 💼 拥有 Clickhouse 等公司的大量股权，后者为 Anthropic、Meta、Lyft 等提供支持。 3. ⚡ NBIS 为微软 Azure 以及可能更多的 Mag7 基础设施提供支持，这些是超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的现金牛。 4. 🌊 凭借全栈 + 软件 GPU 编排 (GPU Orchestration) 构建巨大护城河，从而带来更高的毛利率。 5. 💸 史上最大规模的数据中心建设，Meta 已与 CRWV 签约，其他超大规模云服务商紧随其后。我们看到了台积电 (TSM) 在此建设中的远期预测，数据惊人。 6. 🏦 三次降息提振了远期营收预测。 Nebius 是极具吸引力的买入标的，是一家百年一遇的公司，目前市值 260 亿美元，股价 100 美元。 我们在 Robinhood ($HOOD) 身上见过这种剧本：当股价为 20 美元时，曾出现低于市值目标价 50% 的情况和负面报道。然而，Robinhood 的季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增长至 9.5 亿 -10 亿美元，市值从 150 亿美元涨至 1300 亿美元，最终成为华尔街的宠儿。 华尔街和机构投资者清楚地看到 Nebius 未来一年的潜力，但尚未建立大量头寸。 然而，散户只看到下跌的股价、关于甲骨文 (Oracle) 试图进入该领域亏损 1 亿美元的耸人听闻的文章，以及当前 1 亿美元的营收数据，而非预测的季度营收 10 亿美元以上。 因此，即使价格看似因边际交易而下跌，即使更多股份被买入： 1. 散户恐慌性抛售，遭遇保证金清算 (Margin Liquidation)。 2. 做市商 (MMs) 针对短期期权（散户卖出看涨期权或买入短期看涨期权的对手方）进行机械对冲，加剧下行压力，引发抛售。 3. 从 Citadel 到 Virtu 的做市商通过从散户手中买入来吸收流动性。 4. 做市商通过大宗交易 (Block Trades) 和暗池 (Dark Pools) 向机构卸载头寸以进行对冲和再平衡。（收割机构的抛售） 5. 机构在压低股价的同时进行低可见度的积累。（例如：散户卖出 10 万股，机构买入 15 万股，而股价下跌。） 散户看到“红色交易日”并认为“没人买入”，而积累仍在悄悄进行。 散户情绪崩溃，但基本面仅有所改善（例如：基于估算，新的以色列数据中心建设将增加约 8000 万美元以上的 ARR）。 这是一个缓慢且战略性的过程，对冲基金和机构将 Nebius 视为潜在的下一个 1000 亿美元市值公司，从而积累大量流通股本。 基本面没有改变——只有股价和散户情绪发生了变化。
英文原文
Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is happening: Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing. Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding: 1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR. 2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc. 3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers 4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins. 5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit. We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers. 6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections. Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share. We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street. Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet. However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter. So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought: 1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated. 2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off) 3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail. 4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions) 5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.) Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly. Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates). It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company. The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.
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NBIS 短期回调不改长期看好，机构持仓低且数据中心业务爆发。
$NBIS 在无重大消息情况下下跌 17% 并未改变我的信念。我的牛市目标价(PT) 仍为 $400。 我们以前见过这种走势： - $ASTS 每股收益(ER) 从 $58 跌至 $36，随后涨至 $83。 - $GOOGL 因 AI 搜索业务从 $170 跌至 $144，随后涨至 $257。 - $HOOD 因宏观因素从 $40 跌至 $28，随后涨至 $135。 当基本面和行业势头保持完好时，尽管短期下跌，坚定的信念终将获得回报。 来自 META、GOOGL、MSFT 的超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers) 正向 AI 数据中心投入数十亿美元，而 Nebius 正在为 Mag7 的现金牛业务提供支持，预计还将有更多超大规模云服务商的交易。未来季度营收预计同比激增 1000%。这种增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。 机构持股比例较低（流通股的 38.3%），随着公司成长，各种手段将被用来从散户手中获取更多股份。 基本面和数据中心增长并未改变，反而呈指数级改善。（例如：今天宣布的新 Nebius 以色列数据中心，以及不断增长的年度经常性收入(ARR)）。 现在是做多(best times go long)的最佳时机，也是市场中赚取世代财富的地方。
英文原文
The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400. We've seen this move before: - $ASTS ER drop from $58 -> $36, into $83. - $GOOGL AI search drop from $170 -> $144 into $257. - $HOOD Macro drop from $40 -> $28, into $135 When fundamentals and industry momentum stay intact, conviction pays off despite any short-term drop. Hyperscalers from META, GOOGL, MSFT, are pouring billions into AI data centers, and Nebius is powering the cash cows of Mag7 with more hyperscaler deals likely to come. Forward quarterly revenue is set to explode 1000% Y/Y. This type of growth is almost unheard of in history. Institutional ownership is low (38.3% of the float) and every trick in the book will be played to acquire more shares off retail as the company grows. Fundamentals and data center growth have not changed, they've only gotten exponentially better. (eg. new Nebius Israel data center announcement today, growing ARR). These are the best times go long and this where generational money is made in markets.
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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降息在即，建议利用回调做多NBIS、TSM等高确信度AI及科技股。
距离降息还有12天（概率94.1%）。做市商(MMs)喜欢利用这样的时机清洗期权链(option chain)。 就我个人关注的杠杆交易(leveraged trades)关键价位而言： $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKLB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ 特别点名亚马逊，尽管市场反弹，其年初至今(YTD)仍下跌4.6%。 $AMZN - $200-$210（现在$211买入看涨期权(calls)极佳，让我想起$GOOGL在史诗级反弹前的$145。基本上现在看起来不错，但像Google一样，它跌破了人们预期的水平，所以甚至可能触及$200） 我对高确信度(high conviction)标的使用保证金+期权没问题，这只是我个人的风险承受能力，非财务建议(NFA)。 现在是做多高确信度标的的最佳时机。
英文原文
We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain. In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades: $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKlB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ Special shoutout to Amazon, which is down 4.6% YTD despite the rally. $AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls, reminds me of $GOOGL at $145 before the epic rally. Basically around now seems good, but like Google it dropped below levels people expected so might even touch $200) I’m fine with margin + options on higher conviction stuff, this is just my personal risk tolerance, NFA. These times are the best to go long on high conviction.
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建议无视噪音，关注基本面，利用散户恐慌期积累AI算力龙头筹码。
谢谢，只是目前 Mag7 对 AI 算力（数据中心、电力）的需求出现了绝对激增，而许多此类公司的机构持股比例极低（例如 $NBIS 为 38%，而通常理想区间为 60-75%）。散户可能因错误原因（例如看到 $AMSL 建厂放缓就抛售，尽管 AMSL 正在扩建晶圆厂，却无视 $TSM 今日公布的远期营收/利润率激增）或受特定地区银行冲击影响，将 $MSFT 或 $GOOGL 的未来基础设施资产恐慌性抛售给机构。如果普通人不理解宏观，这类噪音有助于对冲基金在不大幅推高价格的情况下积累筹码。最好关注基本面+增长是否完好（确实完好，且我们此前低估了需求），并忽略如 ORCL 新闻或短期宏观冲击等看空报道。
英文原文
Thanks, it's just that there's been an absolute surge in demand for AI compute (Data Centers, Power) from Mag7, and institutional ownership in a lot of these companies are extremely low (eg. $NBIS 38% when usually sweet spot is 60-75%). Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons (eg. looking at $AMSL for buildout slowdown when AMSL does fab expansions, while ignoring $TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today) or because of a shock from specific regional banks. If regular people don't understand macro, noise like this help hedge funds accumulate without moving prices much. It's better to look if fundamentals + growth are in-tact (it is, and we've underestimated demand before), and ignore hit-pieces such as the ORCL news or short term macro shocks.
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博主基于宏观利好更新美股AI/半导体/能源等板块的强烈买入、买入及持有名单。
大豆/植物油崩盘，个人思考与解释： 强烈买入 $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC （+ 同上次税务收割股） $AMZN $SMCI _ 买入 $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH 持有 $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS （已达推文股票代码上限，其余同上次帖子，Quantum或Oklo仍建议卖出） _ 强烈买入 ALAB - 数据中心建设的重要组成部分，拥有类似英伟达(NVDA)的利润率，客户包括Mag7。已有来自博通(AVGO)的竞争者，真的不认为Arista会构成竞争威胁。 CRDO - 与ALAB同样的抛售，之前觉得两者都略有高估，但现在回到修正区间，适合补仓。 NBIS - $400目标价牛市情景。宏观顺风来自政府重新开放+10月底降息预期进入财报季，短期前景看好。利好众多（如Meta x CRWV，因此有更多Mag7客户的潜力），分部表现良好，例如Clickhouse，季度收入从$1亿扩展到$15亿+非常惊人。合同已锁定，只是公司执行的问题。 WLAC - 之前在$13时写过投资逻辑。即使在$14.5也很强，因为它可以轻松重估100%+。 LTC - 受杠杆交易者和政府停摆影响。预计停摆将持续一段时间，主要买入理由是ETF获批。但无论如何，低于$100都是很好的买入点，因为最终会获批（~95%概率）。 TSM - 天哪。如果是美国公司这将是$3万亿市值的公司，利润率惊人，对于其规模而言增长率惊人。每篇关于OpenAI X (**Sydney Sweeney合作)或AMD建设/NVDA建设的帖子中，TSM都是核心，即使以历史高点买入，也轻松成为$2万亿+公司（目前约$1.5万亿）。 BTC - $112K是好的入场点。黄金不断创历史新高，基本面没什么变化，只是最近大量清算。 （+ 同上次税务收割股） AMZN - 我真不知道为什么年初至今还在跌。我觉得亚马逊不需要太多解释，但仍在增长（例如AWS积压订单巨大，仍增长24%，当然不如ORCL、GCP等），但考虑到年底季节性和2月前的上涨，现在可能是抄底的最佳时机。AMZN今天触及$213-215是补仓的好机会，因为短期波段交易通常浮动在$218-$227，但长期我预计它会追赶其他Mag7。 SMCI - 被低估。市场关注短期表现，Charles引用的55%+同比前瞻收入增长无人相信+未实现的积压订单。但现在随着所有数据中心建设，这开始说得通了。因此应在接下来两次财报中重估。 _ 买入 AMD - OpenAI x AMD，Oracle使用AMD建设，这么多交易，如果它确实是$NVDA的强劲竞争对手，将重估为潜在$1万亿+公司。我不认为赢家通吃，可以看到$NVDA $4.5万亿+市值和$AMD $3500亿市值，所以我们可以看到大幅拉升（OpenAI通常是前沿模型领导者，如果Sam说他们可以使用AMD芯片+Elon说它对中小模型有益，可能意味着积极信号） FLNC - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 SEI - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 BZAI - 别人做过这家公司的深度研究，仅因板块和向边缘计算转移（例如机器人将很热）。由于低市值和类似公司的上涨可能表现良好。 NKLR - 像$OKLO这样的核能股已经起飞，这只是跟随梯队。 IREN - 无需介绍，巨大的GW算力，只是还没有宣布Mag7交易，但随时可能到来 -> 强劲重估。不是强烈买入的唯一原因是因为不完全确信矿工能像CRWV那样转型并保持高利润率（例如$ORCL打击文章），但我们会看到。 WULF - GOOGL积压订单，另外$3.6+亿左右的资金帮助很大。 CIFR - X上有很多关于未来产能和强劲重估的信息。一直喜欢这家公司，因为它是NBIS-lite。你可以买任何Neocloud，因为板块潜力巨大，Mag7将收入注入。 CRWV - 因为债务不像其他人那样喜欢，但由于植物油修正，$134（低于META交易宣布时）是更好的买入点 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 WYFI - Neocloud类别相同 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 GLXY - Neocloud类别相同，有助于其建设 RBRK - 做过深度研究，中期网络安全板块很好的买入，他们只需缩减营销，然后看起来有更多自由现金流，因为他们将大部分运营支出花在营销上。 GRAB - 基本面很好，-6.56%修正再次买入 SEA - 东南亚的AMZN，很多人使用。仅因客户群+变现潜力就买入。基本面$50亿+收入38% Y/Y增长也很好。 META - 我真的很不喜欢他们在AI上的昂贵资本支出，因为他们并没有像ChatGPT那样推出前沿模型，谁知道Zuck在做什么。但除此之外，一个月下跌7.3%，回到$700支撑位，可能在这里买入以追赶是个好主意。 TGT - 下个月股息是好的催化剂。 SNAP - Jenners回来了（有助于人气），他们将前记忆运营支出转为收入，这可能会导致明年巨大的重估。只是受税务收割影响，否则现在会是强烈买入。通常税务收割事件在12月完成。 MU - 现在中国恐惧稍微减弱，MU因为建设中的内存使用而成为更强的买入。 RKLB - 中子，金色穹顶合同，很多催化剂 FLY - 中等提升 UNH - 不受大豆影响的医疗保健股，但有修正。机构发布持仓后可能会上涨（例如Warren可能买了更多） 随机想法 基本上任何不是Oklo的成长/风险股都很好，因为我们有 -> 10月底降息 -> 政府重新开放（可能在10月底或11月初） 进入 -> 12月降息。 -> 中期选举（对股票看涨） 通常市场崩盘发生在紧缩而非宽松时。你的愚蠢量子泡沫可能会再持续3-12个月。如果你做空，可能等到明年2月。 无论如何，这是风险偏好的好时机，特别是搭乘Neoclouds -> 相关板块（例如能源）-> 相关公司（例如smci, tsm等）的趋势。 我半开玩笑地说大豆，因为它可能签署了升级紧张局势，但我可能会看到明年前的上涨。另外我可以写很多关于每一个的内容，但这很耗时，但我会不时发布关于随机股票如$RBRK的投资逻辑帖子。 太空/机器人/能源/量子/AI/半导体/关键垂直领域是目前最顶级的，不要对抗动量。我可以认为某些东西被高估了（例如一些关键材料，因为与Neoclouds相比仍然具有投机性，后者基于Mag7的执行有保证的收入），但我不会在降息时做空它。 只是个人想法，非财务建议
英文原文
The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations: Strong Buy $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) $AMZN $SMCI _ Buy $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH Hold $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS (Hit the ticker maximum but everything else from last post, still sell on Quantum or Oklo) _ Strong Buys ALAB - Huge part of datacenter buildout, NVDA like margins, Mag7 customers. Already had competitors from AVGO, really don't think Arista would be a competitive threat. CRDO - Same sell-off as ALAB, thought they were both kind of overvalued before, but now they're back in correction territory so good to stock up. NBIS - $400 PT bull case. We have macro tailwind from government re-opening + rate cut EOM october into earnings, so short term looks promising. Lot of things going for it (eg. meta x crwv, so there's potential for more mag7 clients), sum of parts doing well, eg. clickhouse, and scaling rev from $100m to $1.5B+ a quarter is insane. there's already contracts locked in its just a matter of company execution. WLAC - Wrote a thesis about this earlier at $13. Even at $14.5 strong because it can re-rate 100%+ easily. LTC - Affected by leverage traders and government shutdown. The shutdown is predicted to last awhile and the main reason to buy was the ETF getting approved. But a great buy sub <$100 anyway, because it will get approved in due time (~95% chance). TSM - Holy crap. This would be a $3T company if this were a US company, insane profit margins, insane growth rate for their size. And every post you see about OpenAi X (**sydney sweeney partnership) or AMD buildout/NVDA buildout. TSM is the center of it all and would easily be a $2T+ company (from here at ~$1.5T), even if buying at ATHs. BTC - $112K good entry point. Goldt keeps hitting ATH, nothing really changed fundamentally, just lot of liquidations recently (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) AMZN - I really don't know how it's still down YTD. I don't think Amazon needs much explaining but still growing (eg. AWS backlog massive, still going like 24% but not as much as ORCL, GCP and others obviously), but with EOY seasonality and runup to Feb, now is probably the best chance to catch the bottom. AMZN hitting $213-215 today was a good chance to stock up since it usually floats between $218-$227 if you're short term swing trading but long term I'd expect it to catchup to other mag7. SMCI - Underrated. Markets were looking short term performance, and Charles was quoting like 55%+ Y/Y forward revenue growth which nobody believed + backlog that didnt get realized yet. But now with all the data center buildouts, now it's kinda making sense. So should re-rate in the next two earnings. _ Buy AMD - So many deals from OpenAI x AMD, oracle building out with AMD, this is going to re-rate to a potential $1T+ company if it's actually a strong competitive to $NVDA. I don't think it's winner takes all and you can see a $4.5T+ market cap size with NVDA and some $350B marketcap size with AMD, so we can see a large ramp up (OpenAI is usually the leader in frontier models and if Sam says they can use AMD chips + elon said its' good for small-medium weight models, prboably means something positive) FLNC - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. SEI - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. BZAI - Someone else did a DD on this company, just cause of sector and shift to edge compute (eg. Robotics goign to be hot). Because of low MC and runup of similar companies could turn out well. NKLR - Nuclear stocks like $OKLO have been taking off, this is just follow the lader. IREN - Needs no introduction, huge GW compute capacity just no announced mag7 deals yet but could come anytime -> strong re-rate. Only reason not a strong buy is because not fully convinced miners can pivot like CRWV and maintain great margins (eg. $ORCL hit piece) but we'll see. WULF - GOOGL backlog, another $3.6+ or so in funding helps a lot. CIFR - Lot of info on X about future capacity and strong re-rating. Always liked this company because it was NBIS-lite. You can probably buy any Neocloud and it will go up because the sector is incredibly high potential with Mag7 funneling revenue. CRWV - Didn't like this as much as others because of debt but because of the seed oil correction much better buy point at $134 (below when META deal was announced) BITF - Same in Neocloud category WYFI - Same in Neocloud category BITF - Same in Neocloud category GLXY - Same in Neocloud category, helps with their buildout RBRK - Did a DD on this, great buy for cybersecurity sector in mid term, they just need to scale back marketing and then it looks like they have a lot more FCF because they're spending most OPEX on marketing. GRAB - Great fundamentally, -6.56% correction good to buy again SEA - AMZN in SEA, tons of people use them. Just a buy just because of costumer base + monetization potenetial. Fundamentally growing $5B+ rev 38% Y/Y is also great. META - I really don't like all their expensive capex on AI since they're not really putting out fronteir models like ChatGPT with it, who knows what Zuck is doing. But that aside, down 7.3% over the month, going to $700 support, probably a good buy around here to play catchup. TGT - Dividend next month good catalyst. SNAP - The Jenners are coming back (helps with popularity), they're shifting former memory opex to revenue, and this will probably cause a HUGE rerating next year. Just suffers from tax harvesting otherwise would be a strong buy rn. Usually tax harvesting events are kinda done in December. MU - Now that China fears are kinda less intense, MU is a lot stronger buy just cause of memory use on buildout. RKLB - Neutron, golden dome contracts, lot of cataylsts FLY - Medium lift UNH - Healthcare stock not affected by soybeans but had a correction. Would likely go up one instituions post their ports (eg. warren likely bought more) Random thoughts Basically any growth/risk stock that's not named Oklo is great because we have -> Rate Cut end of month October -> Government re-opening sometime (likely around end of Oct or early Nov) Into -> Rate Cut December. -> Midterms (Bullish for stocks) Usually market crashes happen when there's tightening not easing. And your stupid quantum bubbles would likely continue for another 3-12 months afterward. If you're short, then probably wait till next Feb. Anyway, this is a great time for risk-on, and specially riding trends with neoclouds -> affiliated sectors (eg. energy) -> affiliated companies (eg. smci, tsm, etc). I half joke-about soybeans because it likely signed escalating tensions, but I'd probably see a run-up into next year. Also I could write up a lot about each one but it's pretty time consuming but I'll put on a thesis post about random ones eg. $RBRK, from time to time. Space/robotics/energy/quantum/ai/semi/critical top verticals right now, don't fight against momentum. I can think something is overvalued (eg. some critical materials bc. it's still spectulative compared to neoclouds that kinda have guaranteed rev based on execution from mag7) but I wouldn't short it into rate cuts. Just personal thoughts, NFA
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因CIFR大涨跟风买入，未做深入调研。
@soulbiri1 我这么做只是因为我的 $CIFR 持仓今天涨了 29%，而且我看到 Wolf 的图表在那里显得很沮丧。除了知道 $GOOGL 的交易以及它与 CIFR 的相似性外，我没做太多尽职调查(DD)，但还是买了。看看结果如何！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I'm just doing this because my $CIFR positions went up 29% today and I just saw Wolf's chart sitting there all sad. Didn't do much DD aside from knowing about the $GOOGL deal + similarity with CIFR but bought anyway. Will see how it goes!
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博主因补涨逻辑买入$WULF，以集齐新型云服务商投资组合。
今天，我内心那个WSB（华尔街赌徒）的声音说话了…… 所以今天冲进了 $WULF，在发现它涨幅不大（3.6%）而 $CIFR 和 $WYFI 都涨了28%之后，以此凑齐“Neoclouds”（新型云服务商）的“艾克佐迪亚”（游戏王卡片组合，意指集齐关键组件）。（之前已经少量买入了一些 $WYFI、$WLAC 和 $BITF） $WULF 拥有与 $CIFR 类似的 $GOOGL 合同。https://t.co/0oYU9TtaxV
英文原文
Today the WSB degen inside me spoke... So aped into $WULF today to complete exodia of the Neoclouds after seeing it not go up much (3.6%) while $CIFR, $WYFI both went up 28%. (bought $WYFI, $WLAC and $BITF a little earlier on) Similar $GOOGL contract as $CIFR. https://t.co/0oYU9TtaxV
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质疑Boost财务数据准确性，分析其与Fluidstack合作及获Mag7客户潜力。
Boost 此前预测其年度经常性收入(ARR)为2.75亿美元，毛利率75%，IPO估值6亿美元。我不认为那个790万美元的数字是准确的。此外，Fluidstack 1.8亿美元的 ARR 很可能是一个严重滞后的快照，因为那是2024年的数据。目前尚不清楚他们与 Fluidstack 的合作模式，但鉴于 $CIFR 和 $WULF 正是通过这种方式获得合同，他们有望获得 $GOOGL 等 Mag7 客户的业务。
英文原文
Boost was projecting ARR of $275M forward revenue, 75% gross margin, IPO at $600m valuation. Don't think that $7.9m number was accurate. Also Fluidstack's ARR at $180m is likely a way lagging snapshot since that was 2024. Not too clear how they work with Fluidstack yet, there's potential for Mag7 clients like $GOOGL since that's how $CIFR and $WULF got the contracts.
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提醒新手注意 $WLAC 盘前流动性风险，并分析其作为 Neocloud 的高增长潜力。
给新手的 $WLAC 提示： 尽量避免在盘后/盘前买入这类低流通盘的小市值股票，因为流动性极低且买卖价差（Bid-Ask Spread）很大（如果非要买，请挂限价单）。 例如，目前的买价是 $13.8，卖价是 $15.08，如果你不挂限价单而是直接市价买入，你会立即亏损 9.28%。 此外，与正常交易时段相比，流动性匮乏导致价格波动被放大，次日可能会回归正常。 _ 背景信息：$WLAC 是一家 SPAC IPO，将转换为 Boost，估值约 6 亿美元。 Boost 是一家 Neocloud（新型云服务商），与 $WULF / $CIFR 最相似，因为它们都与 Fluidstack 合作，而 Fluidstack 由 $GOOGL 支持。 其优势在于已有 75%+ 的 EBITDA 毛利率，这非常棒，且营收同比增长 250%，估值较低。它将从近期的 Neocloud 热潮中大幅受益，并可能因获得一份 Mag7（七大科技巨头）合同而大幅重估。 可能在接下来两个月内任何时间 IPO，这只是个等待游戏。
英文原文
Just a heads up about $WLAC to newcomers: Try not to buy these types of low-float small MC stocks after-hours/pre-market due to really low liquidity + high spread (and if you do, place limit orders). Bid-Ask is $13.8, Sell $15.08 right now as an example, so you're losing 9.28% immediately if you don't limit buy a stock and just place a 100x buy order. There's also a lack of liquidity compared to normal market hours so a lot of price movements are inflated + could go back to normal the next day. _ For context, $WLAC is an SPAC IPO that converts into Boost ~$600m valuation. Boost is a Neocloud most similar to $WULF / $CIFR in that they work with Fluidstack, which is backstopped by $GOOGL. The benefit was that they already have 75%+ EBITDA gross margin, which is incredibly great and are 250% rev y/y + low valuation. It should benefit a lot from the Neocloud run recently + could re-rate largely with one mag7 contract. Could IPO anytime in the next two months, it's just a waiting game.
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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博主首次公开高确信度持仓列表，详解6只核心多头及1只百倍潜力股的建仓逻辑。
这是我首次发布我的高确信度持仓列表。 这是我的6只最高确信度多头持仓，以及1只新的1000%潜力“登月”标的🚀 按首次买入时间及我建立确信度的时机/原因排序。 5年持仓： $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2年持仓： $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000%登月标的（确信度不如其他，但我认为它最有希望实现10倍增长） $WLAC ($13 | $13) 以下是观点变化的原因： 1. $RKLB -> 自特朗普宣布成立太空军以来，我就知道太空行业正在快速增长。当时我想投资SpaceX，但没有替代选择。 所以当$RKLB在Reddit上开始流行时，我买了它。他们在小型运载火箭方面有很高的成功率，但除此之外没什么特别的。 几个月后股价达到$28左右时，他们开始开发中型有效载荷，SpaceX以3500亿美元估值完成了一轮大额融资，我开始看到RocketLab在5年或10年（当时正在开发Neutron）内市值增长的潜力，并由此建立了确信度。 2. $TSM -> 我一直知道台积电(TSMC)对半导体至关重要，但因台湾地缘政治风险而未建立大仓位。但在~$245时，美国开始了关乎国家安全的最大规模AI基础设施建设，$NVDA等公司创下历史新高。 这一切的核心是$TSM。我认为如果它是美国公司，估值将超过3万亿美元。 3. $BTC -> 我一直喜欢比特币，大学时朋友向我介绍。我曾用它支付数字商品，因为当时的PayPal不支持匿名支付，我也不喜欢向商家透露身份。 我一直喜欢比特币作为价值存储/支付手段，但当美国政府+美联储最终支持比特币作为黄金的替代品时，它变成了高确信度持仓。 我有一篇关于美国政府为何对比特币+稳定币有战略利益的长篇论文，改天再发。 4. $HOOD -> 金融基础设施已破碎。业内人尽皆知。 我喜欢Robinhood，因为我认识的散户用户都在用。作为一家金融科技公司的运营者，他们开发产品的速度（甚至与初创公司相比）令人惊叹。 从信用卡产品到银行服务，再到投资，他们确实让一切变得更好，然后直接向其庞大的用户群发布产品。 当然，与半导体/超大市值公司相比，金融科技公司的增长有上限，但如果其银行服务成功并持续创新，未来可能成为一家6000亿美元+的公司。 _ 1. $NBIS - 起初我承认自己在不看基本面情况下进行了波段交易。一切在Mag7开始与所有Neoclouds签约，特别是微软与Nebius签署170亿-190亿美元合同时发生了改变，这完全赋予了它新的重估逻辑。我开始研究基本面和他们拥有的资产，对其增长率感到震惊。 我相信它在1-2年内轻松达到$400（1000亿+市值）。 2. $ALAB - 许多Mag7公司都在Stargate + AI数据中心建设中使用它们。当然，其营收数字相对于当前市值很小，但其利润率像$NVDA一样，且同比增长100%+，这很惊人。谁知道它们能增长多高。 _ 1. $WLAC - 现在是最有趣的一个，如果我对任何小盘股/仙股有强确信度，那就是这个。Boost已经与Fluidstack合作（后者已为$GOOGL合同构建了$CIFR和$WULF，并将它们的估值提升至40-70亿）。 而在目前6亿美元IPO下，这很容易增长到[某公司]的市值。（之前已发过关于投机基本面的小论文）。因此我认为这是最可能实现1000%增长的标的。 _ 我也提到过$FLY作为潜在1000%标的，或$AMD因OpenAI 1000亿+远期收入而成为绝佳买入，但这与单纯相信公司/资产的高确信度略有不同。
英文原文
This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list. These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀 Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction. 5 Years: $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2 Years: $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x) $WLAC ($13 | $13) Here's what changed: 1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative. So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special. Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it. 2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk. But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs. In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+. 3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants. I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction. I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day. 4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it. I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing. From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase. Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation. _ 1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning. Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating. I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate. I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years. 2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing. Who knows how high they'll grow. _ 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B). And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything. _ I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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建议通过WLAC押注Boost SPAC IPO，看好其高毛利及谷歌潜在支持。
IMO 机会在于通过 $WLAC（OKLO、DJT 等）抢先布局 Boost SPAC Neocloud IPO，前提是你有 3 个月的耐心。 Boost 与 Fluidstack 合作，未来很可能由 $GOOGL 提供保底支持。 EBITDA 毛利率 75%+，营收较去年增长 250%。 预计市值约 6 亿美元，可能是下一个 $CIFR。 https://t.co/apzAdfLvMY
英文原文
IMO opportunity front running the Boost SPAC Neocloud IPO through $WLAC (OKLO, DJT, etc) if u hv 3 months patience. Boost works with Fluidstack, likely backstopped by $GOOGL in the future. 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year. EST MC ~$600m, maybe next $CIFR. https://t.co/apzAdfLvMY
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质疑CIFR成梗，认为GOOGL背书neocloud及RGTI更合理。
@sam_badawi 是啊，$CIFR 到底怎么就成了一个梗(meme)啊 lol。$GOOGL 为 neocloud 提供了背书(backstopped)，使其实现了数百倍的扩展。像 $RGTI 这样的标的才说得通。
英文原文
@sam_badawi Yeah, how in the world is $CIFR a meme lol. $GOOGL backstopped neocloud scaling hundreds of percent. Things like $RGTI makes sense
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分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。
我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。 我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。 所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。 即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。 这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。 如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。 再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。 如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。 无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。 （引用内容）： 激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。 另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。 你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。 这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。 然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票 例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。 例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。 此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。 随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。
英文原文
I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.
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分享基于图表的波段交易策略，强调结合基本面与宏观分析的重要性。
我如何用图表进行波段交易，第二部分：短期（几周）+ 短中期（几个月）。 长期部分我会在另一篇帖子中讨论。 例1：$RKLB。仅凭直觉，在$40支撑位买入似乎是个好选择，$54卖出。通常下半部分（虚线）如$44也是不错的买入点，因为风险回报比良好，但你不会买到绝对底部。 你可以对像Rocketlab这样的股票这样做，因为长期来看，如果你持有足够久，即使它跌破$40，鉴于其基本面是强力买入（尽管目前略微高估），它很可能会恢复。 例2：$AMZN - 现在用正股买入是很好的选择。如果它跌破$210，你可以使用LEAPS（长期期权）。例如低于$200时，使用期限较短的看涨期权。 _ 了解基本面、宏观环境以及催化剂是否实质性影响也非常重要。如果未来收入大幅下降或行业利润率压缩，这些线条毫无意义。 很多时候它们因更非理性的因素下跌，例如GOOGL与苹果搜索之争，或者整体市场SPY下跌，但在这些情况下，如果没有实质性差异且公司持续增长，它们通常会再次上涨。再次强调，因人而异，在抄底时机上你需要分析图表以外的更多因素。这只是我所做工作的一部分。
英文原文
How I do swing trading with charts, Part 2: Short term (few week) + Short-Medium Term (few month). I'll do long term ones in another post. Ex 1: $RKLB. Just going off feels on this, seems like a great buy at $40 support, and $54 sell. Usually lower half (dotted line) like $44 is a good buy too cause risk-reward is good but u wont get the actual bottom. You can do it with stuff like Rocketlab since long term if you hold enough, even if it dips past $40 it will likely recover since it's a strong buy fundamentally albeit a tiny overvalued now. Example 2: $AMZN - Great buy with shares now. If it ever dips past $210, you can do leaps. Lower than $200 for example, shorter dated calls. _ Knowing fundamentals, macro, and whether catalysts are material or not is really also important. These lines mean nothing if forward revenue falls a lot or industry margins compresses. Lot of time they drop on more irrational things eg. GOOGL with Apple search, or maybe overall market SPY dipping but in those cases they usually rise up again if there's no difference + company keeps growing. Again different for everyone, you need to analyze more than the charts when timing bottoms. This is just part of what I do.
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博主解释在谷歌交易及增资后建立CIFR头寸。
@philllyfanatic 是的，很明智。我仅在 $GOOGL 的交易达成以及资本增加之后，才建立了 $CIFR 的头寸。
英文原文
@philllyfanatic Yeah smart. I only built a position in $CIFR after the $GOOGL deal and capital rise too
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通过对比NBIS与CIFR走势，论证基本面改变后图表模式对股价预测的有效性。
我常调侃图表分析，但有时它对基于模式的推理（非技术分析 TA）确实有帮助。 历史不会重演，但相似行业的公司往往押韵。 当基本面发生重大变化时： 例如 $NBIS（64->100->86）与 $CIFR（+32% -> -18% -> 上涨）在 $170亿 MSFT 交易和 GOOGL 30亿交易后的表现。 我们可能会看到 CIFR 在回调后像 NBIS 一样上涨。 它遵循了相同的模式：先上涨 32%，然后下跌 18%，现在它开始像 NBIS 一样攀升。 同样的逻辑也适用于财报后的 AVGO（先回调，然后大幅反弹）和现在的 ORCL（财报亮眼，回调，然后大幅反弹），因为基本面发生了改变。 我想把一些 Reddit 风格的图表分析带到 X 上，但在我看来，这是图表分析真正有用的一次。
英文原文
I make fun of charting but sometimes it's genuinely helpful for pattern based reasoning (not TA). History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes for companies in similar sectors. With things material to fundamentals: Eg. $NBIS (64->100->86) vs. $CIFR (+32% into -18% into rise) post $17B MSFT deal and GOOGL 3B deal. We'll likely see CIFR increase like NBIS after the dip. It followed the same pattern where it rose 32%, then dropped 18%, and now it's beginning it's ascent similar to NBIS. Same thing can be said about AVGO post earnings (then dip, then massive rally) and ORCL now (great earnings, dip, then massive rally), because fundamentals changed. Thought I'd bring some Reddit style charting to X but this is one of the times generally when charting helps imo.
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
@regard_capital 我在这里写了一点关于 $ALAB 的内容 https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY $ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头(Mag7)中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率惊人，同比增长约 150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出(Capex)仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设继续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
英文原文
@regard_capital I wrote a tiny bit about $ALAB here https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY
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分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
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长期仅投RKLB，短期看好NBIS和CIFR的超大规模扩张。
@Melissa09744266 除非是 $RKLB，否则我不做长期投资，因为太空领域关乎国家安全，拥有巨大的护城河，且仅次于 SpaceX。不过，我预计 4-5 年后 AWS 和 GOOGL 的超大规模云服务商芯片可能会准备好。在那之前，我们仍处于以 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 为代表的超大规模扩张模式。
英文原文
@Melissa09744266 I don't long term invest unless it's $RKLB since space is a national security issue, huge moat m, and #2 second to SpaceX. But yeah I'd expect in 4-5 years AWS, GOOGL hyperscaler chips might be ready around then. Until then, we're in hyperscaling mode with $NBIS and $CIFR.
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看好为微软和谷歌提供AI算力的小市值公司，认为其估值错配带来巨大非对称回报。
未来8-12个月可能是自这些市值仅30-50亿美元的小型公司开始为Google Cloud或Microsoft Azure提供AI算力以来，市场尚未意识到这一机会（直到某份财报发布）以来的最快上涨期。 这些公司的合同已锁定，例如5年期170亿美元的大单。但市场总是前瞻性的，因此4年后如果看起来它们将开始像苹果与高通那样进行业务转型，我们将看到重新估值。 但与此同时，一家为$MSFT Azure提供动力的公司市值260亿美元，而一家为$GOOGL云提供动力的公司市值40亿美元，其未来的营收潜力和非对称回报在接下来两年里显得荒谬得可笑。
英文原文
Probably fastest runup in the next 8-12 months since most people and markets still don't see the opportunity with all these tiny 3-5B companies powering AI compute for Google Cloud or Microsoft Azure yet until one of their earning reports. These are contracts already locked in like 5Y for 17 Billion but markets are always forward looking so after 4 years if it looks like they'll start to pivot off like how apple did with Qualcomm, we'll see a revaluation. But in the meantime 26B mc for a company powering $MSFT azure and 4B MC for a company powering $GOOGL cloud is hilarious forward rev potential and asymmetrical return next 2 years.
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解析超大规模云厂商资本支出向NeoClouds转移的逻辑，看好NBIS等标的的高回报潜力。
NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入 150 万美元以上到 NeoClouds（新型云服务商），以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7（美股七巨头）合约方：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC（高性能计算）的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 设计使然。 原本流向 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，当它们无法处理来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，现在将漏斗式流入 NeoClouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于让 $NVDA 成为 4 万亿美元公司的 GPU 军备竞赛，关键在于未来 5-10 年为 AWS/Azure 等提供基础设施支持的是谁。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 170 亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 30 亿）、CRWV（由 NVDA 背书）都在以数百百分比的速度扩张（NBIS 季度收入从 1.5 亿增长到可能超过 15 亿），且拥有 60-80% 的毛利率。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模云厂商将资本支出漏斗式注入这些小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：超大规模云厂商获胜 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN 等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure 等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是如何获得数百百分比回报的方法，而不是在 Paypal 上进行价值投资。动量交易下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更偏向投机，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司有 40 多亿资金来执行） 人们总是担心执行问题，但如果微软或谷歌没有做自己的尽职调查，是不会签署如此大的 5-10 年合约的。 - 高利率（主要看你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 等具有惊人的回报潜力。 $NBIS 在每股 138 美元以上时有 40 多亿资金（现在是 107 美元）。$CIFR 在每股 16 美元以上时有资金（现在是 11 美元）。高于当前价格的资金是一个看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（有效的担忧，但这几乎像石油一样，即使是旧型号也保持了价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年规模达到 60 亿收入，75% 毛利率），260 亿市值非常小。 - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU 即服务并直接竞争。目前这些 NeoClouds 是 NVDA 防止对 Azure/AWS 等集中风险的答案。 - 定制超大规模云厂商芯片如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求 NVDA 算力并签署了 5-10 年合约。 无论如何，像 Nebius 这样的 NeoClouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然处于非常早期的阶段。确保像特朗普选举时的 Crypto/TSLA 或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样搭乘 NeoCloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会建议全仓 YOLO，但对于这些为 Google/MSFT 等（Mag7 的现金牛）提供 AI 工作负载的小型 5-200 亿 NeoClouds，风险与回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8 个月 - 1 年。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
英文原文
The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return. 🔹 Buckets Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH Miners pivoting to HPC: $RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT Thesis: Mag7 is AI compute strained, by design from $NVDA. Trillions of capex that normally flowed through AWS, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud for traditional compute, will now funnel into NeoClouds when they cant handle new AI loads from Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, etc. This is a once-a-decade opportunity, similar to the GPU arms race that made $NVDA a $4T company, on who powers the infra for AWS/Azure/etc for the next 5-10 years. NBIS (17B from MSFT), CIFR / WULF (3B from GOOGL), CRWV (backstopped by NVDA) are all scaling hundreds of percent (NBIS went from 150M quarterly revenue to likely 1.5B+) with 60-80% gross profit margins. This revenue growth is almost unheard in history. It's mainly because it's the wealthiest hyperscalers funneling capex into tiny companies. NVDA / TSM (2022->): GPU for hyperscalers CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): hyperscaler wins -> parabolic growth. NBIS/CIFR/IREN/etc (2025 - ) AWS/Azure/etc. -> parabolic growth from AI compute This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal. Momentum riding the next generational companies. So bear thesis usually involves around - Execution Risk (before it was more speculative, now companies like NBIS have 4B+ to execute) People can always worry about execution but Microsoft or Google would not be signing such large 5-10 year contracts without their own DD. - Large interest rates (mainly looking at you CRWV), that's why NBIS, CIFR, and others have potential amazing returns. You have 4B+ in funding for $NBIS at $138+ a share (when it's $107 now). And funding for $CIFR at $16+ a share when it's $11 now. ABOVE current price funding is a bullish tell. - GPU depreciation (valid concern but it's almost like oil, even older models kept their value and still deliver equity). - Valuation (I still think we're just getting started. If NBIS scales to 6B rev next year 75% gross margin), 26B marketcap is extremely tiny. - NVDA potentially launching their own GPU-as-a-service and directly competing. Right now these Neoclouds are NVDA's answer to preventing concentration risk to Azure/AWS/etc. - Custom hyperscaler chips like TPU, Trainium. But likely years away, since they're still begging for NVDA compute and signed 5Y-10Y contracts. Regardless these neoclouds like Nebius are really undervalued relative to forward revenue/gross margins. We're still very early. Make sure to ride the Neocloud wave like Crypto/TSLA with Trump election or NVDA with OpenAI release. Of course this is highly speculative and I wouldn't YOLO full port calls, but Risk vs. Reward on these little 5-20B neoclouds powering AI workloads for Google/MSFT/etc, the cash cows of Mag7, is worth it. (Trade time Horizon: 8m - 1 year.) This is the single best asymmetric AI infrastructure trade for 2025-2026.
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对比PayPal与GOOGL、TSM的隐含波动率，质疑其期权溢价性价比。
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances 隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)为38%，对于像PayPal这样的标的来说处于较高水平，所以我不确定溢价是否真的便宜。例如，当我交易$GOOGL看涨期权时，隐含波动率为28%，或者$TSM为32%。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances IV is 38% which is on the higher end for something like PayPal though so not sure about premium being cheap. When I did $GOOGL calls they were 28% for example or $TSM was 32%.
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作者打破只买正股规则，在特定黑天鹅或底部信号下转向期权策略。
我在这里打破了自己关于只买正股而非看涨期权(call)的经验法则——32%的隐含波动率(IV)股票，但通常如果发生黑天鹅事件导致无关紧要的下跌，例如 $IREN 因摩根大通(JPM)糟糕的目标价下跌14%。或者 $CIFR 下跌17%后仅因 $GOOGL 的支撑而下跌5%，这时我会转向看涨期权。通常如果我认为触底了，或者认为像 $TSM $AMZN 这样的股票会在几个月内上涨，且我在定投(DCA)，且IV没有偏离32%太多且不至于糟糕，我会考虑使用期权。当然也有例外，比如 $IBIT 高IV时跳入周度备兑看涨期权(covered calls)，但那是另一种策略。不过，抄底时机极难把握。
英文原文
I broke my own rule of thumb here about shares only vs. call -> 32% IV stock but usually if something black swans off something immaterial eg. $IREN 14% drop off JPM bs price target. Or $CIFR 17% drop into 5% drop off $GOOGL backstopping it, then I switch to calls. Usually if I think it's a bottom or if I think a stock would go up like $TSM $AMZN over a few months and I'm DCA and IV isn't way off 32% and horrendous I'd consider it. There's exceptions obviously like $IBIT with higher IV leaps into weekly covered calls but that's another strategy. Bottom timing is extremely hard though
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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建议卖出CC虚值期权，逢低买入CIFR，GOOGL待进一步调研。
@DeepValueBagger 那些价值15万美元的牛排晚餐一定很美味。 说笑归说笑，卖出CC（Circus Circus）深度虚值（+35%以上，3天到期）的期权是个好主意，尤其是如果你持有看涨期权的话。 乍一看，逢低分批买入（DCA）下跌16%的$CIFR是明智之举。不过我仍需对$GOOGL的交易做更多尽职调查（DD），以建立足够的信心。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger Those $150k steak dinners must be tasty. Jokes aside, selling CC's way OTM (+35%+ 3d) is a good idea, especially if you calls. From first glance, it's smart to DCA $CIFR -16% dips. Though I still need to do more DD into the $GOOGL deal though to have enough conviction.
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博主分享核心持仓与主动交易策略，反思若全仓操作收益或超6000%。
除非隐含波动率(IV)低于33%，否则我不做期权交易，比如 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，每笔都获利 $100K+。 通常我会持有一批高确信度的核心股票，如 $HOOD、$RKLB、$IBIT、$NBIS，并持有固定时间。 还有一篮子随机标的，如 $GRAB、$AMZN 等。 然后我会预留大量资金用于主动交易，这些我通常在 X 上发布。 有太多暴涨机会值得思考，比如减半前的 MSTR、Hood、SMCI、HIMS 等。我几乎抓住了每一次突破，但出于风险管理，只投入了组合中较小比例的资金。 如果每次我都全仓押注，哈哈，我的收益可能已经涨了 6000%+。
英文原文
I don't do options unless it's <33% IV things, such as $GOOGL or $TSM, both $100K+ profit each on. Usually I hold a core portfolio of high conviction stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $IBIT, $NBIS for a set amount of time. A basket of random stuff like $GRAB, $AMZN, etc. Then I set aside a good amount for active trading, which I usually post on X. Just too many run-ups to think about, like MSTR pre-halving, Hood, SMCI, HIMS, etc. I kind of caught every breakout but only put a smaller percentage of my portfolio into that for risk management. I'd probably be up 6000%+ if I full ported every time lol.
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NBIS获微软大单及融资，基本面改善，市值低估。
并非因为股价反弹。而是因为自那以后，$NBIS 获得了 $MSFT 多年总计 170 亿美元的订单，上周以良好条款筹集了 41 亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)，加上三天前预期的降息利好。我们还看到微软计算资源紧张，OpenAI 转向 $GOOGL。其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)也签署了更多计算资源协议，且更有可能签约。这些近期发生的事件，使得在 $NBIS 50 美元时仅为投机，除非是 $RKLB，否则我对投机性公司不会有高确信度。现在纯粹是从这里开始规模化扩张，未来营收复合增长数百倍。250 亿美元市值与未来增长不匹配。
英文原文
It's not because of a price rally. It's because since then, $NBIS has 17B from $MSFT for multiple years, $4.1B+ now raised for capex last week on good terms, with additional rate cut tailwind projected from 3 days ago. We've also seen MSFT be compute strained and OpenAI go to $GOOGL. With other hyperscalers sign deals for more compute and more likely to sign on. This all happened recently, before $50 NBIS was speculation and I wouldn't have high conviction in a speculative company unless it was $RKLB. Now it's pure scaling from here with forward rev compounding hundreds of percent. 25B marketcap does not match forward growth.
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NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
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作者基于英伟达支持、微软大单及宏观降息，将NBIS仓位扩至百万美元，目标价225美元。
关于我将 $NBIS 仓位扩大至 100 万美元以上且目标价定为 225 美元的原因思考： 核心逻辑 ______ 当微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL) 和 Mag7 巨头成为你的客户时（就像 ALAB 或 CRED，我在它们股价低于 100 美元时重仓，或者在 $NVDA、AVGO 或 TSM 起飞之前），公司的未来增长可能会以百分之几百的速度爆发。 历史上几乎没有哪家公司像这样被 Mag7 巨头所依赖。 此外，当英伟达 (NVDA) 也有充分动机推高你的股价时…… NBIS 成为更强的买入标的，是我未来 1 年时间内信心最高的选择。 护城河 + 对英伟达至关重要的 GPU 租赁商 _______ 英伟达看到其他超大规模云厂商如 AMZN、GOOGL 正在构建自己的芯片并减少依赖。 对策？构建 GPU 租赁商（如 CRWV），通过持股和融资，使 Azure/Cloud/AWS 无法取代英伟达。 GPU 的获取越来越多地通过这些租赁商进行，正如我们在 OpenAI 身上看到的，他们不再拥有来自微软的算力，不得不转向谷歌。 谷歌的算力也不够，因此转向 WULF 等公司。微软转向 CRWV、NBIS 等公司，大型科技公司的算力需求向下游这些 GPU 提供商流动。 英伟达有充分理由推高 CoreWeave 和 NBIS 等 GPU 租赁商的估值，以对冲超大规模云厂商自研芯片的风险。 如果没有算力，数十亿美元将流向 NBIS，而英伟达在背后支撑他们。 宏观顺风 _______ Polymarket 已定价 3 次降息。 如果你看过我的另一篇帖子，十年才有一次的三次降息（对流入市场的流动性极其有利）+ 年底季节性因素，这对股票是积极的。 此外，NBIS 市值相对较小，且依赖融资/债务增长。当利息负担下降时，融资成本降低，扩张看起来更可行。 NBIS 的估值 heavily 基于未来收益，随着降息预期，来自微软和其他客户的数十亿美元收入预期将被上调。在昨天的美联储会议后，我们即将看到剧烈的重估。 公司对比 ________ 如果让我选择 NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF -> 其他，权衡潜力与投机性。 CRWV - 英伟达明确支持，市值已达 630 亿美元+。可能涨得更高，但考虑到 NBIS 拥有微软合同、类似的积压订单等，而市值仅为前者的一半多，这就是我选择 NBIS 的原因。 $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR 等 - 比特币矿工转型算力。我喜欢它们，但它们还没有像微软那样提供去风险化保障。 WULV - 我喜欢它们因为谷歌支持，但 NBIS 的可转债条款和相对于潜力的市值更好。 基本面 ______ 市值：247.8 亿美元（对比 CRWV 的 610 亿美元，后者今年仍下跌 30%），现在拥有类似的收入积压订单，轻松达到相同市值（每股 243 美元+）的潜力很大。 到 2026 年，计入微软交易后，NBIS 总收入可能达到 50-60 亿美元，毛利率强劲（≈70%）。 在 2027-2028 年，如果基础业务（非微软部分）也激进增长，总收入可能达到 80-100 亿美元+。所有这些都伴随着 ~60-75% 的毛利率。 这很疯狂，但主要是因为英伟达支持这些 GPU 公司。基于估值，NBIS 比 CRWV 更具吸引力，且比没有微软背书给予 170 亿美元的 IREN 等其他公司投机性更低。 杂项思考 ___ 他们已经筹集了 41 亿美元+，并为 170 亿美元的微软合同确保了资本支出。这是最大的去风险化事件，也是为什么我在 90 美元+ 投资 NBIS，而不是在 50 美元时投资更投机的标的。 可能还有其他来自超大规模云厂商的合同即将到来。我认为轻松路径是到 140 美元，然后可能因可转债转股下跌，再涨到 200 美元。 可能还有我没提到的细节，如几年后的利润率压缩、运营收入折旧风险等。 但这正是我投资决策的核心（宏观、基本面、行业增长、护城河+激励措施），与波段交易相比，这也是为什么 NBIS 是未来一年高信心标的的原因。
英文原文
Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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作者类比UPWK，认为ETOR低市值高增长被市场错杀。
回顾我的历史，我通常在底部买入，比如 $GOOGL，或在短期底部买入，比如当所有人都认为公司会失败时的 $UPWK。 $ETOR 类似于 $UPWK，拥有大量现金头寸且盈利。但它正以 $IBKR 20%+ 的年增长率增长，而市值却极低。 有时很难逆着市场情绪交易，但我认为市场对此定价错误。
英文原文
If you look at my history, I usually buy stuff at the very bottom like $GOOGL or short term bottom like with $UPWK when everyone thinks the company will fail. $ETOR is similar to $UPWK with large cash positions + profitable. But it's growing at $IBKR rates 20%+ y/y but extremely low market cap. Hard to trade against sentiment sometimes, but I do think market is pricing this wrong.
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博主晒出多只股票交易成功案例，展示其交易记录以证明实力。
喜欢看大家晒盈利截图。看看我的 $RDDT 发帖历史——到目前为止，我分享的每一次突破都成功了：$GOOGL、2倍杠杆的 $HIMS、$ETH、$UPWK、$RKLB、$OSCR 都中了。去 X/Reddit 上翻翻我的历史记录，亲自看看。我是 X 的新人，但暂时在这里帮助大家学习交易。
英文原文
Love seeing people post profits. Check my $RDDT post history—so far, every breakout I’ve shared from $GOOGL, 2x $HIMS, $ETH, $UPWK, $RKLB, $OSCR has hit Scroll through my history on X/Reddit and see for yourself. I’m new to X but here temporarily to help people learn to trade
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建议买入垄断且低估的台积电，因其他AI股均依赖其代工。
如果你在纠结 $ORCL 对比 $AMZN | $GOOGL，$AMD | $AVGO 对比 $NVDA，$NBIS 对比 $IREN 对比 $WYFI 对比 $CRWV 这很简单。直接买入 $TSM，上述所有公司都依赖于它。 估值偏低且拥有垄断地位，基于未来增长 + 边缘推理(Edge Inference)的资本支出，市值有望从 1.3 万亿美元 -> 1.8 万亿美元。
英文原文
If you're debating $ORCL vs. $AMZN | $GOOGL, $AMD | $AVGO vs. $NVDA, $NBIS vs. $IREN vs. $WYFI vs. $CRWV It's easy. Just buy $TSM, everything above is dependent on it. Undervalued and a monopoly, will likely run from $1.3T -> $1.8T MC based on forward growth + capex from ERs.
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建议在低隐含波动率股票上买入看涨期权。
@triforcerytp 持有最好的标的。我主要推荐在隐含波动率(IV)极低（10-35%）的股票（如 $GOOGL 或 $UNH）上买入看涨期权(calls)。
英文原文
@triforcerytp Shares in the best. I mainly recommend calls for super low IV stocks (10-35%) like $GOOGL or $UNH
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UPWK启动回购，低估值高利润，无视季节性风险。
$UPWK 刚刚宣布启动 1 亿美元的股票回购计划，回购规模约占其流通股的 5%。 让我们再次重申以下几点： 1. 市值约 20 亿美元，年营收 7.73 亿美元，毛利率 77.8%。 2. 拥有巨额现金储备，盈利能力强，市盈率约 9 倍。扩张中的利润率 + 新业务收购并未反映在远期营收预期中。 如果你担心 $RKLB、$CRWV、$IREN、$HIMS、$WULF 等 9 月份的高贝塔股票，当你的市值如此低且正在“印钞”时，季节性因素就不重要了。 Upwork 可能是当前市场中被低估且利润极其丰厚的股票。
英文原文
$UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program. Let's reiterate this one more time: 1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins. 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue. If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money. Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.
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建议9月降低风险偏好，转向盈利股或超跌股，规避高贝塔股。
一个小建议：9月前后降低风险偏好。像$UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL、$UPWK、$KSPI...这样的盈利股，或者年内下跌的$MRVL、$SG、$SNAP...可能会表现不错。如果你满仓高贝塔(high beta)股如$PLTR、$DUOL、$HOOD、$COIN、$CRCL、$NVDA、$MSTR、$TSLA...祝你好运。
英文原文
Just a tip: Lower risk appetite around September. Profitable stocks like $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, $UPWK, $KSPI... or stocks down YTD - $MRVL, $SG, $SNAP might do well. If you're full port calls on high beta like $PLTR, $DUOL, $HOOD, $COIN, $CRCL, $NVDA, $MSTR, $TSLA... Good luck.
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UPWK估值极低且期权信号积极，是极具吸引力的价值投资标的。
$UPWK 是最安全的价值投资标的，甚至优于 $UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL 等。做市商清洗了 Upwork 8月15日到期的看涨期权未平仓合约，目前股价正在反弹，理应高于 $17.5+。一家年营收 7.7 亿美元、毛利率约 80% 的 18 亿美元软件公司，几乎是白送的钱。
英文原文
$UPWK is the safest value play, even over $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, and others. Market makers flushed Upwork call open interest for August 15th, and now it's rallying where it should be above $17.5+. A 1.8B software company with ~80% gross margins doing 770m in annual revenue is almost free money.
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ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长高毛利，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
$ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头（Mag7）中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率令人惊叹，同比增长 ~150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设持续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
英文原文
The reason why $ALAB is taking off is because Astera is the only small cap company in existence with systemic exposure to 5 of the Mag7. 1. ALAB's customer base is literally Mag 7: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $META, and $AMZN. 2. They're growing at astounding rates ~150%+ y/y, with 76% margins (with higher margins than NVDA, one of the highest in the semi market). 3. Capex is still increasing for AI spend, as seen with $GOOGL earnings. NVDA started at a 150B market cap -> 4 TRILLION+ because hyperscalers needed GPUs. We're the start of this effect with ALAB for the AI supply chain, and it's starting at a small 20B market cap. We could see this being the next 1000% if they execute properly and AI infrastructure buildout continues.
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分享GOOGL盈利及回购利好，看多科技股年底表现
关于我发布的WSB图表： 在$GOOGL上，已实现利润为101,428美元+，还有大量未实现利润，因为我预计如果科技股反弹持续，GOOGL年底将触及220美元+（$META $APPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $SPOT）。 财报表现完全爆表，且他们仍有700多亿美元的股票回购计划 https://t.co/G6jrKAyumE
英文原文
For WSB charts I posted: On $GOOGL, realized profit was $101,428+, and lots of unrealized profit since I expect GOOGL to hit $220+ EOY if tech rally continues ( $META $APPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $SPOT) Earnings were a complete blowout and they still have 70B+ in buybacks https://t.co/G6jrKAyumE
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看好$ALAB长期潜力，建议持有而非波段交易。
嗯，$ALAB 刚刚暴涨了 16%。 我实际上不会进行波段交易或在此时获利了结，因为我认为这是另一只像英伟达(NVIDIA)那样能涨 500%+ 的股票。 你并不经常看到市值仅 160 亿美元的小盘公司，在服务于七大科技巨头(Mag7)的同时，还能实现 150%+ 的同比增长和 76% 的利润率。
英文原文
Well, $ALAB just shot up 16%. I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock. You don't really see small cap companies growing 150+ Y/Y with 76% profit margins serving Mag7 companies every day.
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博主建仓 $ALAB 并计划加仓，看好其高利润、高增长及顶级客户群。
我刚刚在 $ALAB 上建立了约 17.5 万美元的长期头寸，并计划将其逐步加仓至约 50 万美元，将其视为一个潜在的市值超 500 亿美元的“登月”机会。 拥有类似英伟达 (NVDA) 的利润率（76%），同比增长超过 144%，客户包括英伟达 (NVDA)、亚马逊 (AWS)、微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL)、英伟达 (NVDA)、AMD，而市值仅为 160 亿美元。 不可思议的客户群 + 增长/利润率。 https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB
英文原文
I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot. NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap. Unreal customers + growth/margins. https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB
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列出GME、SG、UNH、GOOGL的波段交易机会及SRPT研究。
目前的中/长期波段交易机会是： 1. $GME 在下跌 30% 之后 2. $SG 在下跌 49% 之后 3. $UNH 在下跌 45% 之后。 4. $GOOGL 再次跌至 $164 之后。为我的 WSB DD（深度研究）在 ~$150 买入看涨期权，在 $175 卖出，在 $164 重新买入，现在持有至 $185。 正在对 $SRPT 进行更多研究。
英文原文
Med/Long term swing trades right now are 1. $GME after the 30% drop 2. $SG after the 49% drop 3. $UNH after the 45% drop. 4. $GOOGL after the drop to $164 again. Bought calls ~$150 for my WSB DD, sold $175, rebought $164, now holding to $185. Doing more research on $SRPT.