$IQE
观点汇总
由 AI 根据下方全部推文生成，仅为阅读辅助，以原推为准
Serenity 对 IQE 的核心论点经历了从“困境资产”到“高赔率重组博弈”的演变。初期他视 IQE 为陷入财务困境的公司，随后将其定位为西方光子学供应链中至关重要的瓶颈环节，特别是作为 Lumentum ($LITE) 的磷化铟外延晶圆供应商，间接服务于谷歌等超大规模云厂商。他看重的核心逻辑是 IQE 拥有远超同行 Landmark 的产能（100+台反应器），但受困于净债务及传统业务拖累，导致估值严重低估。其投资策略明确为“二元对赌”：若 IQE 成功出售台湾业务以清偿债务并转型 AI 光子学，估值将向 Landmark 重估，带来十倍潜力；若失败则面临极端稀释风险。Serenity 明确表示已持有 IQE 仓位，将其视为类似比特币矿企转型的高风险、高回报“登月”标的，并警告普通投资者需谨慎，但他本人因看好其供应链地位及重组前景而坚定做多。
相关推文
共 172 条 · 按时间倒序 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
野村报告指出AXTI/IQE领先，InP衬底及外延片价格大幅上涨。
野村证券的报告引用 $AXTI 和 $IQE 作为领先玩家。 关于平均售价(ASP)更新： - 2英寸磷化铟(InP)衬底价格上涨 42-76% - 3英寸 InP 衬底价格上涨 78% - 2英寸有源层(EML)外延片价格上涨 50-75% - 3英寸连续波(CW)外延片价格上涨 ~40%+ - 中国国内价格较低，如 https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A 所示
英文原文
Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as https://t.co/rLKzjKI23A
-
博主调侃今日半导体板块大跌，列出多只个股跌幅。
好奇有没有人的投资组合在今天这个“有趣”的日子里是绿色的（盈利的）。 $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% SK海力士: -12.35% 三星: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
英文原文
Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
-
博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
-
博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
-
回顾核心欧洲多头持仓，重点解析Sivers在光子学领域的瓶颈地位。
简单回顾一下，以下是我所有的核心欧洲多头持仓： 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers：如你所知，它是下一代光子学的核心激光瓶颈环节，涵盖从1.6T可插拔光模块到共封装光学(CPO)。 嵌入在许多超大规模云计算服务商的供应商（如Jabil）中。
英文原文
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs: 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO. Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil
-
通过供应商关系映射推测AI芯片供应链瓶颈。
不客气，关于 $IQE。 -> $LITE 是 $GOOGL 的已知供应商。 -> $IQE 是 $LITE 的已知供应商。 -> $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。 Google TPU + 超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的物料清单(BOM) 极度保密。 但你可以通过关系映射大致推测，尽管没人会明说 $AXTI 或 $IQE 供货给...
英文原文
Ur welcome with $IQE
-
IQE与Tower Semi签约，印证其在西方光学供应链中的关键地位。
哇，$IQE 和 $TSEM 签署了一项多年的磷化铟(InP)外延片协议。还记得我在 $12 时告诉过大家 IQE 对西方光学供应链的重要性吗？$MTSI 曾不得不费尽周折以确保从 IQE 获得供应。现在又有了与 Tower Semi 的关键交易。
英文原文
Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi.
-
今天有一份新报告称，中国放宽了磷化铟(InP)衬底的出口限制。据Digitimes报道，这有望缓解光子学市场的大规模生产瓶颈。我的光学持仓对此感到非常高兴：从$AXTI（衬底）、$IQE（外延片）到$AAOI。
英文原文
Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports. Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes) My optical positions are very happy to hear this: From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI
-
区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
英文原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
-
反思自己的投资风格：基于市场尚未理解的信息做判断。
我觉得我个人的投资风格有点不同，算是一些反思： 它本质上是自由裁量式的，基于市场还不知道的东西，也像是人生经历的综合结果。 如果你看 $AXTI、$RPI、$SIVE、$IQE 以及其他名字，很多其实是在猜测……
英文原文
I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences? If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others. Lot of it is guessing on
-
讨论CHIPS法案资助公司被并购较难，参股或是路径。
回复 @MikeBaumgart1：大型公司很难一时兴起就收购像 $SIVE 这种获得 CHIPS Act 资金支持的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种和政府有关联的公司。 很多企业创投部门有时也会错过。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路径。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会入股 $SIVE。
英文原文
@MikeBaumgart1 It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE
-
IQE从12-13涨到54，但其他欧洲光子股波动较大。
特别感谢今天唯一上涨的欧洲股票：$IQE。 从我4个月前在12-13美元做多以来，它涨到54美元。 可惜其他几个从 $LPK、$SOI、$XFAB 到 $ALRIB 的名字波动都很大。
英文原文
A special thank you to the only European stock green today: $IQE. Up to $54, from when I went long at $12-13, 4 months ago. Unfortunately lot of volatility with the other ones from $LPK, $SOI, $XFAB, and $ALRIB. https://t.co/FysZyHk5OK
-
认为光子学无新闻下跌是有吸引力主题的波动，自己在加仓。
今天光子学无新闻下跌挺有意思？ $LITE -4.95% $AAOI -4.85% $SIVE -14.8% $SOI -5.73% $AXTI -8.13% $IQE -12.13% 我认为它可能是未来最有吸引力的主题（甚至超过功率半导体）。 只是上涨途中往往非常波动。 不过我对 $AAOI 有些惊讶，因为显然有机构报告提到与 $AMD 或 $NVDA 的长期协议（Rosenblatt）。也许6亿美元 ATM 限制了近期上行。 $SIVE 也是，考虑到下周 EU Chips Act 2 围绕光子学，而它们列在蓝图中。下周还有 MSCI/NASDAQ OMX 资金流入。 我个人一直在加仓，因为我对光子学主题（尤其是 CPO）有高信念，原因是未来两年整体 TAM 扩张。
英文原文
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
-
认为SIVE/SOI/XFAB可能获得EU Chips Act 2资金。
是的，如果看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 获得 EU Chips Act 2 资金，我不会惊讶。 很高兴我在那里所有多头（除了 $IQE）都列在蓝图中，我之前研究时还没看到！ 不过正式公告看起来推迟到下周了。
英文原文
Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
-
复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
英文原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
-
对IQE目前仅3倍多回报期待更高。
呃……到目前为止，我对 $IQE 的期待比3倍多更高。 不过还有时间。
英文原文
Eh... I had higher hopes so far with $IQE than 3x+. There's still time though. https://t.co/cK08L6yvm3
-
黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
-
长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
-
欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈上涨，LPKF CEO买股增强信心。
欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈 go BRRR？ $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% 顺便说一句，LPKF CEO 在市场上买入股票，对散户是一个不错的信心投票。 更多 CEO 应该这么做，即使金额很小。
英文原文
European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm
-
欧洲光子学SIVE/IQE/SOI均双位数反弹。
欧洲光子学的普通一天？ $SIVE、$IQE、$SOI 全部出现双位数反弹。 这些都是未来核心玩家，在这些水平上很难看到任何下跌不被买走。
英文原文
Just your average day in European photonics? With $SIVE, $IQE, and $SOI all hitting double digit recoveries. These are all core players going forward, hard to see any dip not being bought out at these levels. https://t.co/fYaYAov3Vn
-
出口管制InP会伤及IQE/LITE等下游，而管制人形机器人瓶颈连带伤害较小。
我在思考对 Rasa/NCI 的出口管制，但如果总体上暂停中国 InP 衬底生产，会对 $IQE、$LITE 等下游造成很多附带损害。 但通过 Ulvac 和其他瓶颈暂停中国人形机器人生产，并不会造成同等程度的附带损害。
英文原文
I was thinking about export controls on Rasa/NCI but that would cause a lot of downstream collateral damage on $IQE, $LITE, etc. if you halted China's InP substrate production in general. But halting China's humanoid production with Ulvac and other chokepoints doesn't really do as much collateral harm.
-
吐槽外行把无关术语硬塞进财报讨论
因为有人总在我自己的名字旁边，比如在 $TSEM 业绩里乱评论 $SOI。然后还扔进像 m7u 这种和他们预付款完全无关的东西。类似帖子有五六条，真的要把我逼疯了。要是拿 $IQE / Landmark 的业绩这么搞还说得过去，但这算什么。
英文原文
because I have people backseat commenting my own names like $SOI on $TSEM earnings. Then throwing in random crap like m7u with it that's not even related to their prepayment. There was like 5 different posts like that. I'm going insane. It's understandable if you do it with $IQE / Landmark earnings, but wtf.
-
深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
-
列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
-
说 Shunsin 的 CPO/SiPh 逻辑开始兑现
花了一个月…… 但我关于 Shunsin（6451）CPO / SiPh 的想法开始兑现了。 我一直说，像 $IQE 到 $SOI 这些 thesis，通常会在我发帖后大概 1 个月左右突然开始上涨……这真的很诡异。 也许是机构在跟单？ https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
英文原文
Took a month… But my Shunsin (6451) CPO/SiPh idea is starting to play out. I’m telling you with all these ideas like $IQE to $SOI, they randomly start going up like 1 month after my thesis posts… it’s extremely uncanny. Maybe institution copy trading? https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
-
强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
-
列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
-
IQE 过去三个月涨 4 倍，债务缓解降低长期风险
还不错吧？ $IQE 在过去 3 个月里已经涨了 4 倍。 $MTSI 帮它还债，确实在长期上降低了风险。 我很好奇，有没有 anon 听进去了？ https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
英文原文
Not too shabby? $IQE is now up 4x since in the past 3 months. $MTSI paying off their debts does derisk the company long term. I’m curious if anyone listened anon? https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
-
观察到机构总在 thesis 后几周才跟进
我注意到，通常在我发 thesis 后 4 到 6 周…… 就会有一批机构开始买像 $AXTI、$SOI 或 $IQE 这样的名字。 我不确定这是纯粹巧合，还是他们在看我的帖子，然后需要一些时间做尽调？ https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
英文原文
I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
-
博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?