$EWY
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英伟达称存储短缺多年延续，支撑美光和韩系存储盈利。
看吧……$NVDA CEO 警告称，由于 AI 基础设施需求大规模扩张，存储短缺预计会持续多年。 明天还会有进一步公告。 $MU 以及 $EWY（三星/SK海力士）的营业利润预测，现在看起来也没那么疯狂了？
原推 ↗英文原文
Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
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称早已完成存储DD，EWY多头上涨480%验证论点。
回复 @LLTHTRS：我今年早些时候已经完成了所有关于存储的尽调。 我现在只是让自己的论点被验证，就像我的 $EWY 多头已经上涨480%一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LLTHTRS I did all my DD on memory earlier this year. I’m just letting my thesis get validated like my $EWY longs which are up 480%.
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EWY LEAPS几个月后上涨485%，来自隐含波动率扩张和存储多头。
几个月后……我的 $EWY LEAPS 现在上涨485%。 来自隐含波动率扩张和方向性的存储多头。 不幸的是，我确实看到很多人在伊朗波动期间卖出，因为 X 上到处都在散布末日论。 但从三星、SK……做多存储行业的回报……
原推 ↗英文原文
And a few months later... my $EWY leaps are now up 485%. From IV expansion and directional memory longs. Unfortunately I did see a lot of people sell during the Iran volatility, due to doomposting everywhere on X. But returns going long on the memory sector from Samsing SK https://t.co/WC7GD5RWka
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EWY 2028 LEAPS三个月上涨428%，因IV和韩系存储资产上涨。
天啊……我的 $EWY 2028 LEAPS 现在上涨428%+。 也就是3个月内5.2倍回报。 这就是隐含波动率上升，以及 SK 海力士/三星这些底层存储资产也升值时会发生的事。
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy crap… My $EWY 2028 leaps are now up 428%+. So 5.2x ROI trade, in 3 months. Thats what happens when IV increases and underlying memory assets in SK Hynix / Samsung also appreciate. https://t.co/XdE21DOyoz
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EWY看涨期权上涨300%+，来自韩国市场IV和存储多头上涨。
$EWY 看涨期权现在上涨300%+，如果你听了，回报超过4倍？ 不仅隐含波动率上升并保持了韩国市场的 IV。 SK 海力士和三星这些底层存储多头也持续上涨。 在这段时间里，你们所有网红都一直在看空……
原推 ↗英文原文
$EWY calls are now up 300%+, over 4x return if you listened anon? Not only did IV increase and hold their implied volatility of the South Korean market. Underlying memory longs in SK Hynix and Samsung keep printing. During that time, all your influencers kept bear posting https://t.co/TURcse3ejT
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复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
原推 ↗英文原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
原推 ↗英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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回顾韩国存储链被做空后大涨
就在两个月前。 X 上几乎所有人都看空 $EWY、$MU、SK Hynix、Samsung，说韩国市场 / Memory 像“白银泡沫”。 还说 LNG / Helium / Oil 的担忧会把市场打下去。 现在突然那些之前发 doompost 的人都说自己“早就看多”了。 区别在于：你只是跟着新闻流跑，还是你真的把钱押上去，并且在大家都看空时站对了反向观点。 总之，$EWY 的多头现在已经涨了 350%+，这也说明现在噪音有多大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just two months ago. Everyone on X was bearish on $EWY, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, saying Korean markets / Memory was like the "Silver Bubble". And that LNG/Helium/Oil fears would tank markets. Now suddenly everyone that was doomposting was "bullish" all along. There's a difference between just tagging along the news flow. Then having money at stake and having the correct contrarian opinion while everyone was bearish. Anyway, $EWY longs are now up 350%+, just goes to show how much noise there is nowadays.
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承认 TOWA 很无聊，但走势稳
我之前就说过 $TOWA（6315）会很无聊…… 但它就是像 Hammond 一样，慢慢往上爬。 也许直接做 $EWY 的多头看涨期权会更刺激？ https://t.co/7L0p2oeUqQ
原推 ↗英文原文
I did say $TOWA (6315) would be very boring... But it just keeps creeping up slowly over time like Hammond. Maybe going directly with $EWY longs calls would have been more exciting? https://t.co/7L0p2oeUqQ
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回顾只做 photonics 和 memory 时的惊人 YTD
如果你只盯着 photonics + memory，那今年本来会是一个史诗级收益年。 从 $EWY 到 $AAOI 的所有顶级板块长仓都涨了几百个百分点。 我一直说，Photonics + Memory 在主题上是最好的。 现在还有一些细微的架构变化： photonics 这边是 pluggables -> CPO memory 这边是 hbm3e -> hbm4 本质上还是同一对超级周期。 只是上游瓶颈和受益者不一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Would have been a generational YTD if you focused on photonics + memory anon. Every top sector long from $EWY leaps to $AAOI is up multiple hundreds of percent. I’ve always said Photonics + Memory was the best thematically. Now there’s subtle architecture changes: On photonics: pluggables -> CPO On memory: hbm3e -> hbm4 The same two supercycles. Different upstream bottlenecks and beneficiaries.
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看着多个板块一起暴涨
我就在看从 $EWY 到 $SNDK 的一切都涨得离谱…… 连 $MU 今天都涨了 12%。 呃……今年至今真的有点离谱。 https://t.co/FJKQjq8YJk
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m just watching everything from $EWY to $SNDK go up enormous amounts… Even $MU is up 12% today. Uhhh… YTD is getting a little ridiculous. https://t.co/FJKQjq8YJk
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作者两个月前逆势做多$EWY，现在浮盈约3倍，证明自己判断正确。
两个月前所有人都在唱空 $EWY。 称其为“白银崩盘”或“高丽指数泡沫”。 现在他们全都改口，说自己一直看多存储器。 即便从 $RPI 到 $SIVE 的恐惧发帖不断，我的论点最终还是正确的。 我能积累24.5万+粉丝的主要原因，是我对自己的观点始终保持一致性且立场坚定。 我的 $EWY 多头仓位现在浮盈约3倍。 （引用内容）： 感觉所有人都在唱空韩国综合指数（KOSPI），说： > “看看这图表，它不可能一直涨下去！” > 存储器是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 要等3年才能交付预订单） > $EWY 基本就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，不能代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨。 > 存储器需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争就消失，只是会变得更贵。 > 原油/LNG能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云厂商，不会被运营费用吸收。 这看起来是恐惧抛售和去杠杆化（3倍杠杆ETF和10倍可能已被清洗），而不是实质性运营问题（略有 bearish 阻力，但不至于 -30%）。 SK海力士期货现在市值交易区间在$300B 高位到 $400B 低位。 如果 $MS 和更新的分析师预期即使略微正确，SK海力士的营业利润例如将达到约$300B。 到2028年他们将坐拥大量现金储备，即使存储器价格下跌也不怕。（甚至还没考虑需求变成结构性）。 这看起来又是另一个DeepSeek-Nvidia式的恐惧抛售情形，尤其是在nand/dram价格最近再次调涨之后。更像是底部时机的把握问题。 像这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的标题党抛售更重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Everyone was doomposting $EWY 2 months ago. Calling it “Silver Crash” or “KOSPI crash bubble” Now they’re all flip flopping opinions, saying they were bullish memory all along. Even despite fear posting from $RPI to $SIVE, my thesis ends up right. Main reason I got 245K+ followers is because I’m consistently right about my opinions while taking a firm directional stance. My $EWY longs are now up ~3x.
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存储链条继续起飞
从 $MU 到 $EWY（SK 海力士、三星）再到 $SNDK，存储相关名字最近都在疯狂起飞。 除了三大厂之外，还有 NAND 或台湾的名字，比如南亚科。 现在也许是看看 Towa（6315）的好时机，用来捕捉 HBM4 上游垄断的 capex 周期？ https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
原推 ↗英文原文
Memory names from $MU to $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung) and $SNDK are going brrrr lately. Aside from the big three, then your NAND or TW names like Nanya. Might be a good time to look at names like Towa (6315) to capture upstream monopoly capex cycles for hbm4? https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
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EWY 也是存储敞口
@ArkhamInvests 我个人还在持有 2028 年的 $EWY 看涨期权，用来拿存储敞口。 这些仓位已经涨了三位数，因为我预计三星 / SK 海力士会继续强势印钞。 $DRAM 也是一个不错的敞口工具。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ArkhamInvests I'm still personally long 2028 leaps on $EWY for memory exposure. Those are up over triple digits, since I expect Samsung/Sk Hynix to be printing. $DRAM was another good vehicle for exposure.
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
原推 ↗英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
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列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
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回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
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认为韩国半导体回暖，且在降息预期升温下，跌深的资产可能值得回补。
三星和 SK 海力士都重新回到接近历史高点，$EWY 也跟着走强。 把一些因为宏观跌得很惨的名字买回来，比如 $MSFT（-21%）、$RDDT（-36%）或 $HOOD（-31%）…… 或者像这里的 $ETH 或 $IBIT 之类，也许都不算最糟糕的选择。 尤其是今天衍生品市场把 2-3 次降息的概率又推高了。 看起来市场和衍生品这次真的相信 TACO Tuesday 了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Samsung, SK Hynix both back close to ATHs with $EWY following suit. Buying back some names that crashed from macro like $MSFT (-21%), $RDDT(-36%), or $HOOD (-31%)… Or others like $ETH or $IBIT here might not be the worst idea. Especially as rate cut odds (2-3) spiked on derivative markets today. Looks like markets and derivatives really believe in TACO Tuesday this time.
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虽然看多存储，但宏观和战争会盖过个股表现。
没错，我总体上还是看多存储，因为我觉得需求是结构性的。价格上涨不是结构性的，但未来 $MU 到 SK 海力士的毛利率会一直很高。 不过宏观 / 战争会压过 $EWY 和其他名字。 所以如果有全球能源危机，个股表现也就没那么重要了。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, I'm largely bullish on memory since I think demand is structural. Price hikes are not, but gross margins will be high for $MU to SK Hynix moving forward. However, Macro/War overshadows $EWY and other names. So individual performance won't matter as much if there's a global energy criss.
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认为能源冲击带来货币贬值和交易扰动，伊朗局势让自己做空 XLU。
这是原油 / 能源飙升后引发的货币贬值，把交易结构搞乱了。 伊朗战争也把我做多 $XLU 的仓位搞乱了，因为现在市场已经不再计价降息了。 伊朗带来的不确定性太大了。说实话，如果特朗普停止升级，你会看到 $EWY 出现巨大反转，但你不会在海力士上看到同样的变化。 但现在到底政府会怎么做，已经是抛硬币了。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s currency devaluation after crude/energy spikes messing up the trade. The War in Iran also messed up my $XLU long since there’s no rate cuts being priced in anymore. Again too much uncertainty with Iran. Idk, you get a massive reversal with $EWY that you don’t with SK Hynix if Trump stops escalations. But at this point it’s a coin flip on what the administration does.
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说因为油价和战争带来的贬值，EWY 作为代理标的变差，但仍更愿意持有半导体。
@HeLiuLeo 所以作为代理的 $EWY，因为石油 / 战争紧张导致的当前贬值，情况稍微变差了一点。 所以现在单独持有海力士可能更好。 不过我还是觉得三星 / 海力士的相对强势会继续带动 $EWY 指数，所以我个人还是在持有。
原推 ↗英文原文
@HeLiuLeo So $EWY as a proxy has gotten a tad worse due to current devaluation from Oil/War tensions. So individually holding SK Hynix might be better as of now. However, I still think Samsung/SK Hynix outperformance will carry $EWY index regardless so I’m personally holding
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解释伊以战争以来，以色列和美国市场跌得比亚洲少，但亚洲在战前涨太多。
是的，我本来想编辑那条帖子，但后来觉得已经有点晚了。 我的意思是，自从战争开始以来，以色列 / 美国市场跌得比亚洲市场少。以色列显然是赢家。 但 $EWY 和 KOSPI 在战争前涨得太多了 -> 战后亚洲股市大幅抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes I wanted to edit the post but realized it was a bit late. Point was Israel/US markets are down less since the War started compared to Asian markets. Israel being the obvious winner here. But $EWY and KOSPI were up extreme amounts before War started -> massive selloff in Asian equities post-war.
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用亚洲市场崩盘与以色列市场上涨对比，认为战争输赢可由市场来判断。
今天亚洲市场出现了一次极其惨烈的崩盘。 中国股市：-3.63% 韩国（KOSPI / $EWY）股市：-6.49% 日本（Nikkei）股市：-3.48% 而以色列的 Ta-125 股市呢？ 年初至今 +11.25%，一年 +67.21%。 美国的 $SPY 年初至今大约跌了 5%，但表现还是比亚洲对手更好。 这些数据很有意思，因为市场而不是新闻，通常才是判断战争赢家和输家的最大指标。 尤其是在伊朗这场持续的能源冲突里。
原推 ↗英文原文
One of the most brutal wipeouts occurred in Asian markets today. China's stock market: -3.63% Korea's (KOSPI / $EWY) stock market: -6.49% Japan's (Nikkei) stock market: -3.48 However if you look at Israel's Ta-125 stock market? +11.25% YTD and +67.21% 1Y. The US $SPY is down ~5% YTD, but faring better than their Asian counterparties. This data is very interesting since markets, not headlines, are usually the best largest indicators of: Winners and Losers of War. Especially with the ongoing energy conflict with the War in Iran.
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感谢光子和存储股让自己的收益再次起飞，也希望早先分享的 thesis 对别人有帮助。
@accounting_ds 谢谢！我的收益又开始起飞了。 非常感谢光子和存储相关股票。也希望我从 $LITE 到 $EWY 分享的那些 thesis 帖，多少帮到了别人。
原推 ↗英文原文
@accounting_ds Thanks! My returns are blasting off again. Big thanks to photonics and memory names. Hope the thesis posts I shared from $LITE to $EWY helped others too.
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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批评很多人事后改口看多，认为市场里绝大多数内容都只是噪音。
很多人把自己的仓位都投降掉了，这真的很让人火大。 因为现在 X 上那些到处发 doompost 的人，突然又都装作自己很看多 $MU 或 $EWY。 或者那些根本不懂自己在说什么的银行分析师。 这个地方 99.9% 的人之前都在看空，还发过诸如： - “KOPSI 要崩了” - “内存图表看起来像白银？” 或者类似： “氦气 / LNG / 石油要一路往下” 但现在 $SNDK 和存储股都接近历史高点（或者已经到了），大家又都假装自己从一开始就看多。 X 上绝大多数内容都只是极度噪音。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s infuriating that so many people capitulated their positions. Because of X influencer doomposters who are now pretending to be bullish on $MU or $EWY. Or Bank Analysts who have 0 clue what they’re talking about. 99.9% of this place was bearish and posted: - “KOPSI Crash” - “Memory charts look like Silver?” Or something along the lines of “Helium/LNG/Oil” on the way down. But now that $SNDK and memory names are ATH (or getting close), everyone is now pretending to have been bullish all long. The vast, vast majority of X are extreme noise.
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强调独立研究的重要性，指出恐惧驱动短期价格，但经营收入驱动长期价格。
提醒一下：当整个社区都在恐慌发帖讨论内存股名字的时候。从$EWY（SK Hynix、Samsung）、$MU和$SNDK。在伊朗冲突初期。说“Kospi和内存股会因氦气或LNG下跌30-40%”。我是全程保持看多的少数分析师之一。因为我实际上做了研究来支持我关于LNG、原油和氦气几乎没有实质性影响的观点。伊朗冲突仍在进行中，关于潜在油价飙升仍有很多未知因素：但恐惧和煽动性标题驱动短期价格。经营收入驱动长期价格。只要知道从方向上看，内存对AI建设至关重要。美国不会让他们的AI建设因中东冲突而停滞，并在AI——这个历史上最变革性的技术——上失去对中国的优势。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a reminder: While the entire community was doomposting about memory names. From $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung), $MU and $SNDK. during the initial Iran conflict. Sayin “Kospi and memory names would drop 30-40% because of Helium or LNG.” I was one of the only few analysts that remained bullish the entire time. As I actually did the research to back up my claims about little material disruption of LNG, Crude, and Helium. The Iran conflict is still ongoing, and there’s a lot of unknowns still regarding potential oil spikes: But fear and sensational headlines drive short term prices. Operating income drives long term prices. Just know that directionally, memory is critical to the AI buildout. United Stares wont let their buildout stall, and lose China, in AI - the most transformative technology in history. Over a Middle East conflict.
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用日文回应伊朗局势恐慌，认为媒体把内存股卖盘讲得过头了。
你说得完全对！伊朗局势把媒体搞得到处都是恐慌情绪。 但这些担忧都被夸大了。那些把内存相关股票卖掉的人，看的是煽情媒体标题（只是噪音），而不是（真正重要的）营业利润前景。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe 本当にその通りですね！イラン情勢の影響で、メディアが至る所で恐怖を煽っています。 しかし、そうした懸念はどれも大げさすぎます。メモリ関連企業の株を売り払った人たちは、（本当に重要な）営業利益の見通しではなく、センセーショナルなメディアの見出し（単なるノイズ）を見ていたのです。
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相比单家公司，更担心 EWY 的汇率问题，但仍看好 SK Hynix 和三星带动回报。
@NicholasBardy 我对 $EWY 的汇率问题，比对单个公司的担心还多。 不过不管怎样，我还是会期待 SK 海力士 / 三星大幅贡献回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NicholasBardy I’m more worried about currency exchange rates on $EWY than I am on individual companies. But regardless I’d expect sk hynix/samsung to heavily carry returns
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回顾被恐慌卖掉内存股的人，强调 NAND、DRAM 涨价和利润才是决定长期走势的关键。
想象一下那些卖掉自己内存仓位的人。 因为“氦气”就把 SK 海力士、Sandisk 和 Micron 卖掉？ SK 海力士：1 日 +7.03% $SNDK：1 周 +31.75% $MU：1 周 +19.66% 三星：1 日 +2.83% 看看 NAND、DRAM 的涨价，那些都远远高于预期。 而且公司也明确说没有任何实质性影响。 媒体 doompost 和恐慌盘会驱动短期价格。 但经营利润决定长期股价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Imagine all the people who sold their memory positions. From SK Hynix, Sandisk, and Micron because of “Helium”? Sk Hynix: +7.03% 1D $SNDK: +31.75% 1W $MU: +19.66% 1W Samsung: +2.83% 1D Look at NAND, DRAM hikes, which were all way beyond estimates. As well as company statements that there was zero material effect. Media doomposters and panic sellers. drives short term prices. Operating profit drives long stock prices.
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年初回顾自己在光子瓶颈、AXTI、EWY、RPI、IQE、Soitec 和 Venezuela 相关判断上的一系列兑现。
只是回顾一下我今年的成绩。 2026 年前三个月，粉丝增长到 10 万+： - 预判了光子学即将出现的 InP 基板 / 原料瓶颈 - 识别出 $AXTI 是主要受益者（涨了 4 倍+） - 中国突然对日本实施即时出口管制，针对 InP 化合物 -> 在我那篇识别中国瓶颈以及住友 / 超大规模云脆弱性的 thesis 后没多久，这篇还拿了几百万浏览…… 我也不确定他们是不是看过我的帖子，如果看过，抱歉？ - 预测了韩国市场波动上升，并把它映射成和 $EWY 有关的 IV 套利交易想法 - 一周后就被韩国央行关于即将到来的波动的表态验证了 - Bloomberg、Reuters、FT 以及其他媒体都引用了我关于 $RPI 的 thesis 帖 - 很多欧洲媒体也在谈为什么我看好 $IQE - 还有一堆法国新闻网站，以及 Citi、Kepler 的分析师，围绕我那篇关于 Soitec（$SOI）的 TLDR thesis 帖发出了略带强势的研究意见 - 识别出委内瑞拉政局变化的主要受益者，比如 Gold Reserve，而且这只股票第二天就涨了 100%+ - 还发了关于委内瑞拉可能持有多少比特币的信息整合，结果被 CNN 等媒体大量报道！ 我其他很多 thesis 帖，比如 $LITE，也在今年随着我对 $GOOGL TPU BOM 的映射，以及两次加倍后兑现了。 但这些都没上面那些酷！ 短短两个月里！我喜欢保持谦虚，但偶尔也想吹一吹。 最棒的是，这次零售投资者因为 X 上的信息发现和免费传播，几乎都提前参与了很多趋势。 很期待未来会发生什么，也很高兴 X 给了我机会分享想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a reflection on my accomplishments this year. Growing to 100K+ followers in the first three months of 2026: - Forecasted the upcoming InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck for photonics - Identified $AXTI as the main beneficiary (up 4x+) - China's suddenly enforced immediate export controls on Japan, targeting InP compounds -> shortly after my thesis identifying the China bottleneck and Sumitomo/hyperscaler vulnerabilities got a few million views... Not sure if they read my post, sorry if they did? - Predicted volatility increase of the South Korean Market and also mapped that into an IV arbitrage trade idea with $EWY - Got it spot on a week later with the Bank of Korea citing upcoming volatility - Had Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and other news outlets citing my thesis post about $RPI - Bunch of European news sites talking about why I like $IQE - Had a bunch of French news sites and analysts from Citi, Kepler, putting out slightly aggressive notes about my Soitec ( $SOI ) TLDR thesis post. - Identified the main beneficiaries of Venezuela regime change like Gold Reserve, with the stock going up 100%+ the day after. - Published information synthesis on how much Bitcoin Venezuela might have had, and it blew up with a ton of media coverage like CNN and others! Lot of my other thesis posts like $LITE ended up playing out this year after mapping out $GOOGL TPU BOM and doubling. But it's not as cool as the ones above! In just two months! I like to stay humble, but I do want to brag from time to time. And best of all, retail investors were all early to a lot of these trends this time because of information discovery + free distribution over X. Excited to see what's to come in the future and I'm happy X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts.
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EWY 的 IV 交易成功后，自己转而看多韩国内存股，认为利润会压过宏观恐慌。
EWY 的 IV 交易是成功的。韩国指数的隐含波动率从 32% IV 上升到了 46-48%。 现在它更像是对 SK 海力士 / 三星内存的方向性做多。 Q1 NAND 价格上调了 100%+，三星据说 Q2 又再提了 100%+。DRAM 价格也远远超出预期。 氦气 / 石油 / LNG 的担忧目前被夸大了，所以我还会继续看多韩国内存板块。 经营利润最终会压过任何宏观恐慌。
原推 ↗英文原文
IV $EWY trade was successful. Volatility of the Korean Index went from 32% IV -> 46-48%. Now it's more of a directional long on memory from SK Hynix/Sasmung. NAND prices hiked up 100%+ Q1 and Samsung reportedly jacked up 100%+ again Q2. DRAM prices also hiked way past expectations. Helium/Oil/LNG fears are overblown currently so I'm staying long on Korean memory sector. Operational income should blow away any macro fears.
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看好内存价格和相关公司利润率
Counterpoint 的内存价格研究： “没有任何情景会让内存价格在 2027 年下半年回调，因为超大规模云厂商的采购意愿依然没有松动。” 这说的是 $SNDK、$MU、$EWY（SK 海力士、三星）以及其他内存公司。 他们指出： 三星、SK 海力士、美光、长鑫存储和南亚科的 DRAM 产量预计今年增长 26%，NAND 增长 24%。 但超大规模云厂商的需求在可预见的未来大概率会远超供给。 这和 $INTC CEO 说的“内存短缺要到 2028 年才会缓解”很像。 而且 NAND 价格在一季度已经上涨了 100%+，三星二季度还在继续上调 NAND 价格。 DRAM 价格也在不断提价。 内存厂商运营利润率的爆发式提升，可能会压过任何宏观因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
Memory Price Market Research from Counterpoint: "There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken" In regards to $SNDK, $MU, $EWY (Sk Hynix, Samsung), and other memory names. They commented: DRAM output from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT, and Nanya is forecast to grow 26% this year, with NAND up 24%. But hyperscaler demand will likely far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future. This mirrors $INTC CEO's comments about "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028". With NAND prices Q1 increasing 100% + Samsung hiking NAND prices Q2. And DRAM prices going through constant price hikes. The explosive increase in operating margins from memory makers across the board are poised to outweigh any macro.
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博主强调独立思考，欣慰粉丝在复杂交易中建立信念。
听到这个很高兴！我不希望大家进行跟单交易或盲目跟随。主要目的只是分享我随行的思考，希望人们能从中有所收获。如果他们能自行建立信念，去参与像 $AXTI 这样高度复杂的交易，那就更好了。很高兴你在 $EWY 或 $IREN 的衍生品上也做到了这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
That’s great to hear! I don’t want people to copy trade or just blindly follow. Main thing is just sharing my thoughts as I go and I hope people learn a few things along the way. And if they can build conviction themselves to enter a highly nuanced trade like $AXTI, that’s even better And I’m glad you did with some derivatives on $EWY or $IREN.
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博主庆祝粉丝破十万，感谢关注并重申坚持免费分享研究心得的初心。
哇……刚刚达到 10 万粉丝！ 很高兴这么多人觉得我对 $AAOI 到 $EWY 的观点有帮助。 回顾来看，我想这 largely 是因为我坚持了最初的做法： -> 信息综合 -> 寻找人们未曾关注的新角度 -> 从小型瓶颈到大型科技公司，发布可执行的交易思路 -> 如果结果正确就庆祝！ 我认为去年大部分案例： 从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 最终都看对了，实现了翻倍或三倍，因此近期人气高涨。 没多少人感兴趣于研究过程，但当他们两个月后看到成果时，我想他们开始更关注了？ 无论如何，我会继续做我在拥有 800 粉丝时做的事。那时只有我和一些 Reddit 上的朋友。 但 X 给我这个机会与他人分享想法，这太棒了。 达到 10 万粉丝对我来说是一种轻微的验证，表明我免费发布的想法至少值得阅读（即使你不跟随操作）。 所以，只想对你们所有人说声谢谢！
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow… 100K followers just now! Glad this many people find my thoughts about $AAOI to $EWY helpful. From reflection, I think it’s largely because I’ve been staying true to what I’ve done at the start: -> information synthesis -> finding new angles that people haven’t looked at -> publishing actionable trade ideas from small bottlenecks to megacap companies. -> celebrating if they turn out correct! And I think majority of them from last year: From $AXTI to $LITE ended up being right and doubling or tripling, hence the recent popularity. Not many people are as interested in the research process but when they see the fruition of it two months later, I guess they start paying more attention? Regardless, I’ll keep doing what I’ve been doing when I had 800 followers. When it was just me and some friends from Reddit. But it’s amazing X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts to others. Hitting 100K followers is slight validation to me that my ideas I publish for free are at least worth reading (even if you don’t follow them). So, just wanted to say a thank you to all of you!
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SK海力士/三星基本面未受能源危机实质影响，恐慌性抛售提供买入机会。
$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)看起来确实被严重错配了。 韩国指数以及 SK 海力士/三星的波动简直令人难以置信。 话虽如此，关于存储芯片标的有三点看法： 1. 原油成本及作为副产品的液化天然气(LNG)可能只有轻微到中度的实质性影响。 - 价格上涨对 SK 海力士/三星的利润率只是小幅削减，但 DRAM/NAND 的价格上涨足以弥补这一切。 - 鉴于运输路线/SK 海力士的声明，发现氦气/LNG 的供应中断影响很低。 2. 大多数恐惧似乎被夸大了，市场正在定价油价飙升至 200 美元+全球衰退的最坏情况。 3. 清算导致了夸张的影响。 这些股票的经营利润可能依然完好无损。 但短期重新定价是有道理的，因为市场正在规避未来石油溢出的风险。 然而，我相信一旦战争波动性结束，鉴于基本面 > 恐惧，存储芯片标的将是极具吸引力的多头标的。 另外，这也是一个很好的教训：不要在这些波动时期使用杠杆。
原推 ↗英文原文
$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced. The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane. That being said, three things regarding memory names: 1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect. - Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that - Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements. 2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession. 3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects. The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact. But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers. However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear. Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.
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指出EWY因穿透结构高度集中于SK海力士和三星。
并非如此，$EWY 主要由 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)构成，这得益于像 SK Square（90% 净资产价值 NAV 来自 SK 海力士）或三星电子的其他投票权结构股份等穿透式结构。 或者是其他三星旗下公司，其净资产价值由持有三星电子股份构成。 它的集中度比绝大多数人意识到的要高得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not really, $EWY is majority SK Hynix/Samsung due to pass through structures like SK Square (90% NAV Sk Hynix) or Samsung Electronic’s other voting structure shares. Or other Samsung companies NAV made up of holding Samsung Electronics shares. It’s a lot more concentrated than the vast majority of people realize.
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油价/LNG/氦气恐慌被夸大，SK海力士/三星高利润率可吸收成本，逢低买入。
关于韩国综合指数(KOSPI) | $EWY (SK海力士 / 三星) 的情绪， 原油 / 液化天然气(LNG) / 氦气要么： 扰乱供应或压缩利润的说法被夸大了。 对SK海力士、三星的供应链中断和能源成本威胁是耸人听闻的噪音。 原因如下： 1. 原油： 如果油价上涨31%并浮动至120美元/桶的可能情景： 在这种情况下，油价对SK海力士和韩国内存股几乎没有实质性影响。 通过挂钩油价的LNG/JKM价格，韩国股票面临能源成本上升，主要影响那些仅靠5%到10%微薄利润生存的公司。 然而，鉴于内存价格飙升且三星在Q2将NAND价格翻倍，韩国电力公社(KEPCO) 70%的费率上调对三星/SK海力士几乎没有实质性影响。 根据披露的财务数据，SK海力士的年度电费超过1万亿韩元（DIGITIMES报道，约7.5亿美元）。相对于FY2025年97.15万亿韩元的收入，这约占收入的1-2%。 SK海力士在2025年Q4实现了58%的营业利润率。在此背景下，能源成本冲击很小： 如果我们模拟能源成本增加50%： - 对SK海力士季度营业利润(19.17万亿韩元)的影响：~1340亿-~1460亿韩元 (0.76%) - 对三星DS季度营业利润(16.4万亿韩元)的影响：~4070亿韩元 (2.4%) 每次50%的能源成本激增会使SK海力士的利润率减少约0.7%，三星的营业利润率减少2.4%。 分析师预测SK海力士在2026年传统DRAM上的利润率可能达到70%以上。即使能源成本增加100%，也不会对韩国半导体营业利润率构成实质性威胁。 然而，这对营业利润率为5-10%的低利润率公司是实质性的。 输家：传统重工业（钢铁、基础化学品、普通平板玻璃）。 赢家：三星/SK海力士。 主要风险是供应链的二阶效应，如原材料成本增加。这很难建模，但在一个例子中： 一家工业公司迫使原材料（化学品、特种气体）价格上涨30%，这对晶圆厂的影响微乎其微。 材料约占半导体销售成本(COGS)的15-20%，因此从数学上讲，材料成本激增30%只会使SK海力士的营业利润率再减少约2%。 一个打印70%利润率（并提高价格）的寡头可以轻松吸收3-4%的直接（公用事业）和间接（材料）能源逆风。 在大多数情况下，成本可能会通过NAND/DRAM价格上涨转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。 在油价上涨3倍或5倍的极端情况下。 油价上涨数百倍的主要影响是两个因素： - 全球宏观经济冲击，导致全球通胀（影响从$GOOGL到$COST的每一家公司）。 - 韩元(KRW) USD/KRW汇率崩盘。 持续高油价导致的韩元贬值是一个真实的二阶风险，但历史上韩国内存出口商受益于韩元贬值带来的收入端优势。三星/SK海力士的大部分销售以美元计价，而成本以韩元计价。因此，韩元走弱实际上有利于出口商的利润率，部分抵消了能源成本逆风。 但在油价上涨5倍的极端情况下，那个末日世界里唯一的做多标的只有原油本身、像$LMT / $NOC这样的国防承包商、美国国内能源生产商和美元。 这不太可能发生。 财经媒体和算法可能会恐慌，但如果原油从91美元涨到120美元且KEPCO提高能源成本： 数据显示这对三星 / SK海力士几乎没有影响，主要影响的是那些营业利润率微薄的玩家。 2. LNG： 如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，韩国大部分LNG进口将不受影响。 媒体一直在引用霍尔木兹海峡+流向中国、印度、韩国和日本的LNG流量。但如果我们查看韩国的贸易数据，这只是其总进口的一小部分。 大部分进口通过非霍尔木兹海峡路线到达，例如澳大利亚 (24.6%)、美国 (12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚 (~20%) 和俄罗斯/萨哈林 (~4.6%)。其余部分由来自尼日利亚、秘鲁、文莱、巴布亚新几内亚等次要来源填补。 2024年82%的进口是挂钩油价的长期合同，正如我们上面建模的那样，能源成本增加会使运营支出(opex)每增加50%受损1-2%，但鉴于DRAM/NAND价格上涨和营业利润率达到70%以上，这只会造成很小的缺口。 即使如此，成本也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商。 韩国从2022年吸取了教训并多元化了来源，LNG供应中断的影响很小。主要担忧是油价影响LNG价格上涨。 3. 氦气： SK海力士声明：“已确保多样化的供应链和充足的氦气库存”。 “因此，公司几乎不可能受到[氦气]影响。” 现实是，像$TSM到SK海力士这样的大型玩家已经多元化了供应链以应对外部事件。 氦气对半导体供应链至关重要，但媒体叙事是耸人听闻的。尤其是当最大的内存公司发表强硬声明称公司[SK海力士]不可能受到影响时。 _ 但对于三星/SK海力士等韩国股票，围绕石油/LNG/氦气的恐惧看起来与现实脱节： 因氦气和KEPCO费率上调而抛售SK海力士的算法是在进行错误的计算。这从根本上说是一个非供应链问题。 主要威胁是石油和能源成本对全球宏观经济冲击的影响，影响从消费品到通胀的一切。 3月3日“黑色星期二”暴跌使KOSPI下跌7.2%，SK海力士单日下跌11.5%，正是以这些能源安全恐惧为主要催化剂。当然，杠杆强制平仓火上浇油。 然而，基本面与价格走势之间的脱节就是交易机会。如果利润率真的受到威胁，抛售就是合理的。 但，抛售在一天内摧毁的价值比几十年能源成本上涨可能造成的还要多。 数学不支持恐惧的事实正是为什么韩国是买入的理由，因为市场正在因情绪而非结构性扩张的盈利能力（尽管石油/能源成本增加）而抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either: Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown. The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise. Here's why: 1. Crude Oil: The a likely scenario if oil prices increase 31% and oil floats to $120/bbl: In this case, the effect on oil has almost no material impact on SK Hynix and South Korean memory equities. There are increased energy costs via oil-pegged LNG/JKM prices on Korean equities, mainly for companies surviving on razor-thin 5% to 10% margins. However, a KEPCO 70% rate hike has little material affect on Samsung/SK Hynix, given memory prices have soared with Samsung doubling NAND prices Q2. From disclosed financial from, their SK Hynix's annual electricity bill exceeds ₩1 trillion per DIGITIMES (~$750M). Which against FY2025 revenue of ₩97.15 trillion represents roughly 1–2% of revenue. SK Hynix posted a 58% operating margin in Q4 2025. Against this backdrop, the energy cost shock is small: If we model a 50% increase in energy costs: - Hit to SK Hynix quarterly OP (₩19.17T): ~₩134 billion-~₩146 billion (0.76%) - Hit to Samsung DS quarterly OP (₩16.4T): ~₩407 billion (2.4%) Every 50% energy cost spike would shave roughly .7% off SK Hynix margins and 2.4% off Samsung operating margins. Analysts project SK Hynix margins could reach 70%+ on conventional DRAM in 2026. Energy costs do not meaningfully threaten Korean semiconductor operating margins, even if they were to increase by 100%. However, this is material to companies with low operating margins of 5-10% The Losers: Traditional heavy manufacturing (steel, basic chemicals, standard flat glass). The Winners: Samsung/SK Hynix. The main risk is second-order effects on supply chains such as increased material costs. This is very hard to model, but in an example where: an industrial company forces 30% price hikes on raw materials (chemicals, specialty gases), it barely dents the fabs. Materials are roughly 15-20% of semiconductor COGS, so mathematically, a 30% spike in material costs only shaves an additional ~2% off SK Hynix's operating margins. A combined 3-4% direct (utilities) and indirect (materials) energy headwind is easily absorbed by an oligopoly printing 70% margins (and increasing prices). In majority of cases, the costs likely get passed down to hyperscalers through NAND/DRAM price hikes. In the very worst case scenario of oil prices increasing 3x or 5x. The main affect on oil increasing hundreds of percent are two factors: - Global macroeconomic shock, causing global inflation (affecting every single company, from $GOOGL to $COST). - KRW (South korean Won) USD/KRW exchange rate blowout. KRW depreciation from sustained high oil is a real second order risk, but historically Korean memory exporters benefit from won weakness on the revenue side. The majority of Samsung/SK Hynix sales are dollar denominated wheras costs are won denominated. So a weaker KRW is actually margin accretive for exporters, which partially offsets the energy cost headwind. But in an extreme case of oil prices hiking 5x, the only longs in that apocalyptic world are crude oil itself, defense contractors like $LMT / $NOC, domestic US energy producers, and the US Dollar. This is unlikely to happen. The financial media and algorithms will likely panic, but , if crude oil goes from $91 to $120 and KEPCO increases energy costs: The data shows there's little affect on Samsung / SK Hynix in specific, and the main impact are on players with razer-thin operating margins. 2. LNG: If the Hormuz closed, the majority of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. The media has been quoting Hormuz + LNG flows going to China, INdia, SK, and Japan. But if we look at the trade data from South Korea, that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Majority of imports arrive via Hormuz free routes, eg. Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then the rest filled in with minor sources from Nigeria, Peru, Brunei, PNG, etc. The 82% of 2024 important were long term contracts that were oil-indexed, and as we've modeled above, increasing energy costs would hurt opex by 1-2% per 50% increase, but given DRAM/NAND price hikes and operating margins hitting 70%+, this would make a very little dent. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources, and there's little impact on LNG supply disruption. The main concern is oil impacting hiking of LNG. 3. Helium: SK Hynix statement: “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium]. The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events. Helium is critical to semiconductor supply chains, but the media narrative is sensational. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected. _ But to South Korean equities in Samsung/SK Hynix, fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality: The algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue. The main threat is oil and energy costs on global macroeconomic shock affecting everything from consumer goods to inflation. March 3 "Black Tuesday" crash dropped KOSPI dropped 7.2% and SK Hynix fell 11.5% in a single session on exactly these energy security fears as the main catalyst. Of course, forced liquidations from leverage added fuel to the fire. However, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the trade. If margins were actually threatened, the selloff would be justified. But, the sell-off destroyed more value in one day than DECADES of hiked energy cost increases could have. The fact that the math doesn't support the fear is precisely why it's Korea is a buy, as markets are selling off on emotion rather than looking at the structural expanding profitability despite increasing oil/energy costs.
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SK海力士与三星氦气供应安全，市场恐慌错判，属买入机会。
氦气恐慌为 $EWY、KOSPI、台湾和日本制造了引人注目的标题。 这与之前发现韩国巨头安然无恙后的LNG恐慌类似。 然而，底层机制显示，SK海力士和三星等存储厂商（Memory Players）对潜在的氦气中断具有高度免疫力。 SK海力士向路透社发表声明： “已长期确保多元化的供应链和充足的氦气库存。” “因此，公司几乎不可能受到影响。” 三星尚未发表声明，但他们在第四季度财报电话会议中表示： “我们自豪地成为行业内首个开发并部署半导体制造氦气回收系统的公司。” “这使我们能够回收和纯化氦气以供重新部署，每年减少约4.7吨的消耗，并实现约19%的重复使用率。” 三星确认该系统已在生产线上运行，可能保护了其供应链。 当投资者因金永培（Kim Young-bae）关于90%依赖中东进口将导致HBM生产停摆的说法而恐慌时， Volza贸易数据反驳了这一点，但差异可能源于气态与液态氦的分类、转运，或金出于政治效果而夸大其词。 无论如何，这两大韩国巨头似乎已很大程度上确保了其氦气供应链免受中东冲突的影响。 市场抛售的核心盲点在于： 美国不会让其中东冲突阻碍其AI建设。SK海力士和三星正处于这一核心。 美韩技术繁荣协议（US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal）旨在保护先进技术供应链。 尤其是当像SK海力士这样的公司发表明确声明时： 声明公司不可能受氦气影响。 市场正在为氦气/LNG中断的最坏情况定价，但查看这些声明表明这是一个买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
The helium panic makes for a compelling headline for $EWY, KOSPI, Taiwan, and Japan. Similar to the LNG panic before finding out the Korean giants were fine. However, the underlying mechanics show the memory players in SK Hynix and Samsung in specific are highly insulated from potential Helium disruption. SK Hynix put out a statement to Reuters: "Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected." Samsung have not put out statements yet, but from their Q4 earnings call they stated: "We are proud to be the first in the industry to develop and deploy a helium reuse system for semiconductor manufacturing" This "enables us to recover and purify helium for redeployment, cutting annual consumption by approximately 4.7 tons and achieving a reuse rate of around 19%" Samsung confirmed that this system is already active on production lines and likely protects their supply chain. When investors panic from headlines around structural exposure due to Kim Young-bae's claims about 90% reliance on Middle Eastern imports shutting down HBM production. The Volza trade data contradicts it, but the discrepancy could be gaseous vs. liquid helium categorization, transshipment, or Kim rounding up for political effect. Regardless, it looks like the two large Korean giants have largely secured their Helium supply chain from conflicts in the Middle East. The core point of the selloff markets are missing: United States will not let their AI buildout stall from Middle East Conflicts. SK Hynix and Samsung are in the center of it all. US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal to protect advanced technology supply chains as well. And especially so, when companies like SK Hynix put out definitive statements: Stating there's no chance the company is affected from helium. Markets are pricing in the worst case scenarios for Helium/LNG disruption but looking at the statements suggest it's a buying opportunity.
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澄清EWY为存储股，指出NAND涨价超预期但属周期中段，光子学尚早。
不，$EWY 主要包含三星和 SK 海力士，这两家主要是存储芯片厂商。 三星昨日宣布第二季度 NAND 闪存价格上调 100% 以上，而分析师此前普遍预测仅比第一季度增长 5-30%。 NAND/DRAM 是一个独立的瓶颈环节，但我们正处于周期中段（尽管需求可能是结构性的，但季度价格暴涨 100% 的可能性不大）。 光子学(Photonics)仍处于早期阶段。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, $EWY is Samsung/SK Hynix which are primarily memory. Q2 NAND prices were hiked 100%+ by Samsung yesterday while analyst expectations were all projecting 5-30% increases from Q1. NAND/DRAM is a separate bottleneck but we're midcycle (but demand is likely structural, 100%/quarter price hikes, probably not). Photonics is early.
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驳斥彭博社误报出口管制草案引发半导体供应链恐慌性抛售。
彭博社刚刚引发了半导体市场的崩盘。凭记忆，受影响的标的从 $EWY 和 $SNDK 到 $NVDA 和 $TSM 都有。起因是假新闻。这简直是路透社关键矿产误导性报道的2.0版本。肯定得有人为此负责？
原推 ↗英文原文
Bloomberg just caused a semiconductor market crash. From memory names in $EWY and $SNDK to $NVDA and $TSM. Off fake news. This is Reuters critical minerals misleading reporting v2. Certainly someone needs to be held accountable? https://t.co/YaBNpl8nFB
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KOSPI反弹，AI基建未因伊朗战事停摆，属恐慌性抛售。
韩国KOSPI指数现已回升：11.6%。所有此前通过图表技术分析(TA)预测$EWY下跌的韩国看空者，现在突然删除了所有唱衰帖子。SK海力士上涨：15.78%；三星上涨：14.4%。事实证明，伊朗战争并不会随机叫停AI基础设施建设。
原推 ↗英文原文
The KOSPI South Korean index is now back up: 11.6% All the South Korean chart TA'ers calling for an $EWY drop are now suddenly deleting all their doomposts. SK Hynix up: 15.78% Samsung up: 14.4% Turns out a War in Iran does not randomly halt the AI buildout. https://t.co/br7rF5HCZK
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韩国半导体供应链多元化化解地缘风险，$EWY 因基本面重估上涨。
$EWY 在这篇关于液化天然气(LNG)进口的帖子后从 $120 涨到 $134。我想知道市场是否终于意识到，伊朗的冲突并不会导致韩国半导体产业突然停摆？话虽如此，现在下结论还为时过早。但吸取的教训是，恐惧掩盖了任何基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
$120 -> $134 on $EWY after this LNG import post. I wonder if markets finally realized that the Korean semis won’t suddenly stop because there’s conflict in Iran? That being said it’s still a little early to call anything. But lesson learned is that fear overshadows any fundamentals.
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博主回顾并炫耀其 $EWY 隐含波动率套利交易的成功表现。
天哪……这笔 $EWY 隐含波动率(IV)交易有多神？ 自3周前发帖以来，韩国指数波动率已从32%飙升至51%。 如果 $AAOI 翻倍我也不会太惊讶，但这笔对韩国波动率的押注简直传奇。 https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy… How goated was this $EWY IV trade? The South Korean Index volatility went from 32% -> 51% since posting 3 weeks ago. I’m not as impressed if $AAOI doubles but this call on South Korea’s volatility was legendary. https://t.co/RtkOarv3i9
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指出$EWY高度集中于SK海力士和三星，认为市场担忧被夸大。
一个鲜为人知的事实是，$EWY 的主要持仓是 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星。我发布了一篇关于传导结构(pass through structures)的文章。其中 SK Square（权重最大）约 90% 的净资产价值(NAV)来自 SK 海力士。其他三星公司大多是三星电子(Samsung Electronics)的控股公司。未将作为独立权重计算的另一只三星电子上市股票计入。因此，集中度远高于任何人预期。此外，许多成本也得到补贴，除非局势变得过于严峻，所以我认为许多担忧被夸大了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact that most people don’t know is $EWY is majority SK Hynix/Samsung. I published a piece about the pass through structures. Where SK Square (largest weights) ~90% NAV was SK Hynix. Other Samsung companies are largely holding companies of Samsung Electronics. Not including the other Samsung Electronics listing that’s counted as an independent weight. So concentration is much higher than anyone expects. A lot of costs are subsidized too, unless the situation gets too severe, so I do think a lot of fears are overblown
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韩国LNG进口多元化且多为长协，能源成本可转嫁，基本面未受地缘政治实质影响。
如果霍尔木兹海峡(Hormuz)关闭，韩国80%的液化天然气(LNG)进口似乎不受影响。$EWY 中的SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星自2022年以来已实现高度多元化。人们引用数据称，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的LNG中约59%流向四个亚洲国家：韩国、日本、中国和印度。这看起来是个吓人的数字，但这只是他们总进口量的一小部分。大约五分之四的进口已通过非霍尔木兹路线到达：澳大利亚(24.6%)、美国(12.2%)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚(~20%)和俄罗斯/萨哈林(~4.6%)。此外，2024年约82%的进口为长期合同，而非现货。因此，任何因价格飙升导致的成本上涨将得到很大程度的缓冲。即使成本上升，也会转嫁给超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)。看来韩国从2022年的教训中吸取了经验，实现了来源多元化并增加了长期定价合同。
原推 ↗英文原文
If the Hormuz were closed, it looks like 80% of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected. And looks like $EWY SK Hynix and Samsung are largely diversified since 2022. People are quoting majority of all LNG flowing through the Strait of Hormuz (~59%) goes to just four Asian countries: South Korea, Japan, China, and India. Looks like a scary number, but that’s just a fraction of their total imports. Roughly four-fifths of imports already arrive via Hormuz-free routes: Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot. So any hiked rates for new price hikes would be largely insulated. Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers. Looks like South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources + added long term pricing contracts.
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反驳KOSPI恐慌，指出SK海力士基本面强劲，当前为情绪性去杠杆。
感觉大家都在唱衰韩国综合指数(KOSPI)，说： > “看图表，它不可能一直这样涨！” > 存储芯片是需求的黑洞（$SNDK 已收到3年预购订单） > $EWY 基本上就是两只股票，三星和SK海力士，并不代表韩国经济 > 就像说台湾加权指数是泡沫，因为追踪 $TSM 和联发科的指数在涨一样。 > 存储需求/AI不会因为伊朗战争而消失，但成本确实会变高。 > 原油/LNG带来的能源成本增加会转嫁给超大规模云服务商，而不是被运营支出(opex)吸收。 这看起来更像是恐慌性抛售和去杠杆（3倍和10倍ETF今天可能已被清零），而非基本面恶化（虽有轻微利空，但不足以导致-30%跌幅）。 SK海力士期货现在交易在3000亿-4000亿美元市值区间。 如果微软(MS)和更新的分析师预测稍微准确一点，SK海力士的营业利润例如约为3000亿美元。 如果存储价格下跌，到2028年他们将拥有过多的现金作为缓冲。（甚至还没考虑需求变得结构性强劲）。 这看起来像是另一次DeepSeek-英伟达式的恐慌性抛售，尤其是最近nand/dram价格再次上涨。更多是关于择时抄底的问题。 在这样的时刻，逻辑比非理性的头条新闻抛售更重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying: > “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!” > Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders ) > $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy > Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up. > Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive. > Increased energy from crude/LNG get passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex. It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%). SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range. If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B. They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural). Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom. It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.
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警告避免杠杆工具，利用EWY期权IV错配进行套利。
对 $KORU 零敞口。我一直警告人们不要触碰3倍杠杆工具，原因正是如此。 我确实持有 $EWY 的看涨期权，主要是作为隐含波动率(IV)套利交易，因为做市商(MM)将其错误定价为32%的IV。 股价每日上下波动7-13%是严重错误定价的证据，并应受益于维加(Vega)扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Zero exposure to $KORU. I've been warning people not to touch 3x leveraged instruments for this exact reason. I do have $EWY long calls mainly as a IV arbitrage play as MM's mispriced this at 32% IV. Stock moving up and down 7-13% a day is evidence they heavily mispriced it, and should benefit from vega expansion.
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伊朗袭击致LNG暴涨引发韩股暴跌，但AI需求强劲使三星/SK海力士可转嫁成本，视为买入机会。
关于 $EWY / KOSPI 暴跌以及这是否是三星/SK海力士的买入机会的思考： 这看起来是一个明确的买入机会。 尤其是因为投资者误解了2026年并非2022年（俄乌冲突）的局面。AI从根本上改变了内存需求，与2022年消费电子低迷时期不同，当时三星/SK海力士不得不自行承担运营支出(OPEX)。 韩国历史上最大单日跌幅的主要催化剂是伊朗无人机袭击卡塔尔能源公司(Ras Laffan)综合体。 卡塔尔约占全球液化天然气(LNG)供应的~20%。 结果： -> 荷兰TTF（欧洲天然气）：+46% -> 亚洲现货LNG：+39% -> 美国天然气：+4.16%（正常） LNG飙升是下跌的催化剂，因为韩国严重依赖进口LNG，暴露度极高。 出于对通胀性能源冲击的恐惧，投资者激进抛售韩国科技股，叠加10倍杠杆三星/SK海力士的去杠杆效应。 导致： -> 三星电子下跌9.79%。 -> SK海力士股价暴跌11.12%。 -> $EWY（韩国期货）今日下跌14.49%。 人们担心重演2022年俄乌战争导致LNG价格上涨，韩国电力公社(KEPCO)停止吸收亏损后，韩国工业电价上涨约70%。 仅2022年，三星国内设施就消耗了约28,000 GWh的电力。 电价上涨使三星年度运营支出(OPEX)增加约2万亿韩元（超过14亿美元），SK海力士增加超过1万亿韩元。 这种前所未有的运营支出激增发生在最糟糕的时机。 2022年底，半导体行业进入残酷的周期性低迷。后疫情时代PC和智能手机需求暴跌，导致DRAM和NAND闪存严重供过于求。 然而，2026年完全不同： 与2022年低迷期面临能源成本上升相比： AI对内存的需求完全史无前例。27日有报道称三星/SK海力士再次上调DRAM价格。 $SNDK的NAND需求如此之高，以至于产能分配需要提前3年预订。 需求看不到尽头，直到2028年都没有缓解迹象。 相比之下，2022年笔记本电脑和智能手机的消费端已经面临低迷，内存制造商无法转嫁成本（并承担了巨额OPEX账单）。这导致了上次的大幅修正。 由于2026年全球AI芯片短缺如此严重，他们将无缝地将高昂的公用事业账单转嫁给供应链下游。 由于供应严重受限，三星和SK海力士主导市场条款。大型科技超大规模云服务商（微软、Meta、Google、Amazon）陷入AI军备竞赛。他们目前对价格高度不敏感，优先考虑确保供应量而非讨价还价。 因此，这看起来是一个明确的买入机会，尤其是鉴于预测范围： 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对三星： 2026年：~1820亿美元 vs. ~2108亿美元 2027年：~2351亿美元 vs. ~3337亿美元 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对SK海力士： 2026年：~1329亿美元 vs. ~1905亿美元 2027年：~1670亿美元 vs. ~3128亿美元 此次抛售看起来像是出于对2022年俄乌冲突的恐惧以及10倍杠杆工具带来的极端杠杆进行的即时去风险化。 但与2022年不同，当时笔记本电脑和消费需求已经低迷，LNG飙升导致三星/SK海力士买单： 这次成本转嫁给了超大规模云服务商，因为需求太高。 人们总是将KOSPI比作白银，但区别在于前者拥有惊人的运营收入，在牛市情景下，SK海力士等公司两年的收入 alone 就会超过其市值。 三星/SK海力士的下跌看起来是一个明确的买入机会，因为他们的运营收入可能会轻松超越任何短期波动。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thoughts on the $EWY / KOSPI crash and whether it's a buying opportunity for Samsung/Sk Hynix: This looks like a clear buying opportunity. Especially as investors misunderstand that 2026 is not 2022 (Ukraine-Russia) conflicts. AI has fundamentally changed the demand for memory, compared to the 2022 downturn in consumer electronics, where Samsung/Sk Hynix also footed opex costs. The main catalyst for one of the largest single-day drops in Korean history was Iran drone striking QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex. Qatar is roughly ~20% of the global LNG supply. Results: -> Dutch TTF (Euro Natural Gas): +46% -> Asian Spot LNG: + 39% -> U.S. Natural Gas: +4.16% (fine) The LNG spike was the catalyst for the drop as South Korea is materially exposed as it relies on imported LNG. Fearing this inflationary energy shock, investors aggressively dumped South Korean tech equities, combined with deleveraging of 10x Samsung/Sk Hynix. Sending -> Samsung Electronics down by 9.79%. -> SK Hynix shares sank by 11.12%. and the $EWY (KR futures) down 14.49% today. Everyone is fearing the 2022 incident with Russia-Ukraine war increasing LNG prices, causing industrial electricity tariffs in South Korea climbed by roughly 70% after KEPCO stopped abosring losses. In 2022 alone, Samsung's domestic facilities consumed approximately 28,000 GWh of electricity. The tariff hikes added an estimated KRW 2 trillion (over $1.4 billion USD) to Samsung's annual operating expenses and over KRW 1 trillion for SK Hynix. This unprecedented spike in operational expenses (OPEX) hit at the exact worst possible time. In late 2022, the semiconductor industry entered a brutal cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic demand for PCs and smartphones plummeted, leading to a massive oversupply of DRAM and NAND flash. However, 2026 is completely different: Compared to 2022 that faced increasing energy costs during a downturn: AI demand for memory is completely unprecedented. On the 27th, there were reports of DRAM hikes again from Samsung/Sk Hynix. Demand for NAND prices from $SNDK have been so high for capacity allocation that they've been taking 3 year pre-orders in advance. There is no end to demand in sight, and no relief way until 2028. Comparing this to 2022, where consumer segments for laptops and smartphones were already facing a downturn, memory makers could not pass on the costs (and tanked opex bill). That caused a major correction last time. Because the global AI chip shortage is so acute in 2026, they will seamlessly pass their inflated utility bills down the supply chain. Because supply is severely constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix dictate the market terms. Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) are locked in an AI arms race. They are highly price-insensitive right now and prioritize securing volume over haggling. As a result, this looks like a clear buying opportunity, especially as projections range from: Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD The selloff looks like an immediate de-risking from fears over 2022 Ukraine-Russia-conflicts, combined with extreme leverage from 10x instruments. But unlike 2022, where laptops and consumer demand were already facing a downturn and LNG spikes caused Samsung/SK Hynix to foot the bill: This time it's passed onto hyperscaler costs because demand is too high. People always compare KOSPI to silver, but the difference is one has whopping operational income, where in a bull-case scenario, 2 years of income alone would exceed their market cap of companies like SK Hynix. The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.
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$EWY 波动率异常，期权受 Vega 扩张利好，或唤醒做市商。
是的，如果 $EWY > 每天上下波动 7-10% > 比隐含波动率(IV)高达 93% 的量子公司更剧烈 > 且其 IV 定价比几乎不动的 $MRVL 还低 10% 尽管标的价格下跌，看涨期权(Call)仍受益于 Vega 扩张。这一事件可能会唤醒做市商(MMs) 对于试图在暴跌后加杠杆做多的人来说这很糟糕，但现有头寸受益于 IV 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes if $EWY > goes up and down 7-10% a day > more volatile than quantum companies at 93% IV > and IV was priced 10% less than $MRVL that barely moves Calls benefit from Vega expansion despite underlying prices going down. This event will probably wake the MMs up It sucks for people trying to go long on leverage off the drop, but existing positions benefit from iv expansion
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韩股波动提供买入三星和SK海力士的机会
三星和SK海力士的10倍杠杆就这样没了。我之前说过，随着新的杠杆工具推出，$EWY和KOSPI将极度波动。最好的获利方式是利用错配的波动率，尤其是因为韩国市场基本上由这两只股票主导。日内下跌10%后，隐含波动率(IV)可能会大幅飙升。这次下跌主要源于宏观和流动性头寸调整，因为下跌发生在DRAM/NAND涨价报道之后。主要逆风是能源成本，但与往年压缩利润率不同，三星和SK海力士拥有完全的定价权，此次可以将成本转嫁。韩国科技巨头的营业利润强劲，这似乎是买入被杠杆投机者抛售筹码的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
And… there goes all the 10x leverage Samsung and Sk Hynix. I said earlier that $EWY and KOSPI would be extremely volatile with the new leveraged instruments. And the best way to profit was off the mispriced volatility. Especially because it’s basically two stocks. IV will probably be hiked quite a bit up l after the 10% intraday drop. This seemed mainly macro and liquidity positioning as the drop followed reports of dram/nand price hikes. The main headwind was energy costs but unlike previous years where this compressed margins, Samsung, SK Hynix have complete pricing power and can pass through costs this time around. Operating income of the Korean tech giants are strong and seems like an opportunity to buy off all the leveraged degens.
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分析三星/SK海力士遇DRAM涨价反跌现象，看好基本面回归及SK海力士估值潜力。
不确定是不是只有我这么觉得？ 但我一直在追踪三星/SK海力士与DRAM/NAND涨价报道之间的相关性。 每当有关于DRAM和NAND大幅涨价的报道时，它们两者以及 $EWY 似乎都会下跌。 然后之后又会展开一波反弹？ 例如，上个月 Trendforce 报道了DRAM涨70%和NAND涨100%+，三星/SK海力士在消息发布后都下跌了。 1个月后它们上涨了27.8%。 这次在 sedaily 和 digitimes 报道DRAM涨价后，两者再次下跌。但也许伊朗战争是一个更多的混淆因素。 在利好消息下下跌似乎非常反直觉。但最终基本面会占据主导？ 特别是如果明年，SK海力士2026-2027年的营业利润最终超过其市值？ 例如，麦格理在2月24-25日给出的预测：~1905亿美元 + ~3128亿美元营业利润预测（5030亿美元营业利润 vs. SK海力士~5140亿美元市值）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not sure if it's just me? But I've been tracking Samsung/SK Hynix correlation to DRAM/NAND price hikes reports. Every time there's news about reported massive hikes on DRAM on NAND, they both + $EWY seem to drop. Then afterwards, it pulls off a rally? For example, last month Trendforce reported 70% DRAM and 100%+ NAND hikes and Samsung/Sk Hynix both dropped following the news. 1 month later it increased 27.8%. This time both have dropped again after DRAM price hikes from sedaily and digitimes. But maybe the war in Iran is more of a confounding factor. Seems very counterintuitive going down on positive news. But eventually fundamentals take over? Especially if by next year, SK Hynix's operating income for 2026-2027 ends up surpassing its marketcap? eg. ~$190.5 billion USD+ ~$312.8 billion USD operating income projections ($503B operating income vs. Sk Hynix~$514B MC) from Macquarie on the 24th-25th in Feb.
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杠杆工具增加SK海力士和三星波动，但当前价位可安心持有。
是的，由于新的10倍永续合约(perpetual contracts)、即将推出的2倍杠杆ETF(leveraged ETFs)及其他工具，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)确实存在因杠杆带来的巨大波动潜力。尤其是$EWY和韩国KOSPI指数(SK Index)基本上就是这两家公司的代表。但就个人而言，在当前价位上，这是可以让人安心睡觉的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes there’s a lot of potential volatility due to leverage on SK Hynix and Samsung with the new 10x perps, new 2x leveraged ETFs coming out soon, and other instruments. ESP since $EWY and SK Index are basically a representation of those two companies. But personally, it’s something that can be slept easy on at these levels.
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对比FLKR与EWY，前者费率低，后者可交易期权。
@SlumberMD $FLKR 在持有份额方面表现更佳，因为其费用率更低。$EWY 可以进行期权交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SlumberMD $FLKR is better for shares due to lower expense ratios. $EWY has option trading.
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韩国指数由三星和SK海力士驱动，盈利强劲，类比台积电具长期做多价值。
$KOSPI 和 $EWY，人们不应该试图对韩国指数进行技术分析(TA)或将其与白银等资产进行比较。 韩国指数正处于价格发现阶段，主要由两只股票带动： 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和麦格理(Macquarie)对其营业利润的预测如下： 三星(Samsung) 2026年：约1820亿 - 2108亿美元 2027年：约2351亿 - 3337亿美元 SK海力士(SK Hynix)： 2026年：约1329亿 - 1905亿美元 2027年：约1670亿 - 3128亿美元 如果SK海力士的估值为5000亿美元，而其2026和2027财年的预测营业利润为5100亿美元。 这看起来简直荒谬。（右侧为麦格理的多头情景预测） 我可能会更倾向于参考摩根士丹利的预测（这更加务实），但核心观点依然成立：这些公司的盈利能力极强。 如果三星未来交易价格达到2.5万亿美元（目前为1万亿美元），我也不会感到惊讶。 它给人的感觉就像两年前的 $TSM 一样，看起来是一个显而易见的做多机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$KOSPI and $EWY, South Korea’s index is something people shouldn’t try to TA or compare to stuff like Silver. SK index is in price discovery mode as it’s carried by two stocks: Whose operating profit projections from Morgan Stanley and Macquarie are: Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B - ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B - ~$333.7B USD SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B - ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B - ~$312.8B USD If SK Hynix is valued at $500B and their projected operating income for FY 2026 and 2027 is $510B. It just looks silly. (From Macquarie's bull case projections on the right) I’d probably go off Morgan Stanley projections instead (which is a lot more grounded) but the point still stands that these companies are just so profitable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung were trading at $2.5T in the future (from $1T now). It does have that same feeling as $TSM 2 years ago, where it looks like a no-brainer long.
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EWJ比EWY更分散，建议利用ETF做方向性杠杆而非博弈波动率。
$EWJ 相比 $EWY 的分散度更高，后者基本上只有三星和 SK 海力士两家公司。我认为日本和台湾 ETF 的隐含波动率(IV)定价合理。如果你要介入这些标的，应该更多是为了方向性的杠杆，而不是 Vega 扩张，因为内存超级周期带来的 Vega 扩张是独一无二的。
原推 ↗英文原文
$EWJ is more diversified compared to $EWY which is basically two companies in Samsung and SK Hynix. I think IV is reasonably priced for Japan and Taiwan ETFs. If you’re entering those it should be more for leverage on direction rather than Vega expansion, which was one of a kind from the memory supercycle
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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认为$EWY隐含波动率被低估，因存储超级周期将带来巨大波动。
我真心认为做市商错误定价了 $EWY 2028 年的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)，因为它本质上是对三星/SK海力士的看涨期权。 并非每天都能看到一个“非波动性”指数在 45% 的 IV 下每日波动 7%。 相比之下，它比以 55% IV 交易的 $MRVL 波动性大得多（仅比较两者的图表）。 像 Jane Street 这样的做市商可能正在定价均值回归（回到无聊的 5-10 年停滞期），但由于存储超级周期，这种情况永远不会发生。 或者是 ETF 再平衡，这通过传递结构无意中导致了对 SK 海力士和三星的更多集中。 大多数 2 年后的虚值(OTM)行权价在短短 2 个月内就变成了实值(ITM)。 随着 10 倍杠杆的 SK 海力士/三星或 2 倍杠杆 ETF 起飞，还有大量未实现的未来波动性。 如果 IV 保持低位，你可以让看涨期权以低溢价轻松突破行权价。
原推 ↗英文原文
I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it’s effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix. Not every day do you have an “non- volatile” index at 45% IV move 7% a day. For comparison, it’s a lot more volatile than $MRVL trading at 55% IV (just comparing the two graphs) Market makers like Jane Street are possibly pricing in mean reversion (back to the boring 5-10 year stagnant periods) that will never happen due to the memory supercycle. Or ETF rebalancing, which just inadvertently causes more concentration into SK Hynix and Samsung through pass-through structures. Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe. And there’s a lot of unrealized future volatility as 10x leverage SK Hynix/Samsung take off or 2x leveraged ETFs. If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.
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麦格理预测三星和SK海力士利润激增，前瞻市盈率极低，估值极具吸引力。
我对三星和SK海力士的预测感到震惊——$EWY？ 麦格理(Macquarie)预测三星电子(Samsung Electronics)将实现： 2026财年：约2108亿美元（较此前172.1万亿韩元增长73%） 2027财年：约3337亿美元（较260.1万亿韩元增长82%） SK海力士(Sk Hynix)： 2026财年：约1905亿美元（较272.2万亿韩元增长58%） 2027财年：约3128亿美元（较447万亿韩元增长77%） （这些数字很大程度上取决于汇率换算）。 如果这些预测成真： SK海力士2026年和2027年的营业利润总和几乎接近其当前市值。 麦格理报告将其预测的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)大幅下调至荒谬的水平：三星到2027年为3.7倍，SK海力士到2027年为2.2倍。 这感觉不真实，但这确实是麦格理研究部的正式预测。
原推 ↗英文原文
My mind is blown on Samsung and Sk Hynix projections - $EWY? Macquarie projects Samsung Electronics to make: FY2026: ~$210.8 billion USD (+73% increase from prior KRW 172.1 trillion) FY2027: ~$333.7 billion USD (+82% from KRW 260.1 trillion) Sk Hynix: FY2026: ~$190.5 billion USD (+58% from KRW 272.2 trillion) FY2027: ~$312.8 billion USD (+77% from KRW 447 trillion) (Numbers heavily depend on conversion rates). If these projections are true: The operating profit from SK Hynix from 2026+2027 are close to eclipsing it's current marketcap. Macquarie's report slashed their projected forward P/E ratios to an absurd 3.7x by 2027 for Samsung and 2.2x for SK Hynix for 2027. It feels unreal but these are genuine projections from Macquarie's desk.
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祝贺$EWY大涨，并复盘自己对存储板块波动率扩张判断的正确性。
@Vcondry84 恭喜 $EWY 实现三位数回报！ 我认为短期波动性比长期波动性更准确，因此这主要是我对存储（Memory）的方向性论点，而非波动率扩张。但很高兴我在这么短的时间内把后半部分（波动率扩张）看对了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Vcondry84 Congrats on the triple digit return for $EWY! I do think short term volatility was more accurate compared to long term so that was mainly my directional thesis on memory rather than volatility expansion. But glad I got the latter part right in such a short timeframe
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SK海力士三星创新高，AI算力产业链迎世代财富机遇。
满眼皆是绿色（上涨）。SK海力士、三星（以及大概率 $EWY）今日均创历史新高。人工智能正在为算力（电力、瓶颈环节和半导体）的未来拥有者带来世代财富。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s just an endless sea of green. SK Hynix, Samsung (and likely $EWY) are all time highs today. AI is bringing generational wealth to the future owners of compute (Power, Bottlenecks, and Semis). https://t.co/igFzY9whEB
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看好AXTI光子潜力及美股科技巨头，建议做多黄金。
$MU - 最终更看好 SK Hynix，但这是更安全的“美国制造”标的。 $AXTI 还有很长的路要走，需等待1年直到极端短缺出现。可能是光子学(Photonics)板块中回报潜力最大的最爱。 $EWY - Vega扩张的尾声，隐含波动率(IV)可能会将其推高一点。但如果你买入看涨期权(Call)，应是因为 KOSPI 上涨而非博弈 IV。 做多黄金是好的，因为外国正在大量买入并抛售美国国债。不喜欢在当前价位做空比特币(Bitcoin)。 $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 在当前估值下具有吸引力。
原推 ↗英文原文
$MU - ended up liking SK Hynix more but safer made in America play $AXTI long way to go, 1 year wait until extreme shortage hits. Prob my favorite in photonics sector for return potential $EWY - tail end of Vega expansion, IV will likely send it a tad higher. But if you’re buying calls do it because KOSPI goes up not for IV plays. Gold longs are good because foreign countries are buying it up and selling Us treasuries. Don’t like Bitcoin puts at these levels. $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are attractive at these valuations.
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分析AI供应链中关键海外垄断厂商及美国本土瓶颈环节的投资逻辑。
哈哈 https://t.co/8i18XOIKK7 我重点关注的海外股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博谢(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃基板(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好做多美国供应链，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)，因为它们具备“美国制造”的瓶颈优势及供应链地位。但这些海外公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何投资海外市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博谢这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博谢这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数海外公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
lol https://t.co/8i18XOIKK7
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计划持有至2027-2028年，视IV上升为额外收益。
@exitvalley 我会持有到 2027 或 2028 年，到时候再看。隐含波动率(IV)的上升只是一个额外的好处，而不是直接持有更多 SK 海力士(SK Hynix) 或者对 $FLKR 或 $EWY 进行保证金交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
@exitvalley I’m holding until 2027 or 2028 we’ll see. The IV increase was just an added benefit instead of directly holding more SK Hynix or going margin on $FLKR or $EWY
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分享关于$EWY及韩国存储股的S级免费研究，结合宏观、微观与衍生品技术面。
这是我免费发布的 S 级研究！ 感谢像 @TheValueist 这样的技术派博主的点名推荐，他们看到了这个交易想法有多棒： -> 尽管 ETF 进行了再平衡，仍梳理出了 $EWY 与 SK 海力士/三星之间的穿透结构(pass through structures) -> 通过将其与已实现隐含波动率(realized IV)进行对比，发现了特定期权链上 2028 年波动率定价的问题。 -> 将其总结为易于理解的论点(thesis)。 此外，在三星/SK 海力士预测下调后，叠加了方向性的长期存储超级周期(long memory supercycle)。 并非每个人都能从 Jane Street 算法中获利，并预见韩国整体波动率的上升！
原推 ↗英文原文
This is S tier research I put out for free! Appreciate the shoutout from technical folks like @TheValueist who saw how awesome this trade idea was: -> mapped pass through structures of $EWY and SK Hynix/Samsung despite ETF rebalances -> found 2028 volatility pricing issues on option chains in specific by comparing it to realized IV. -> summarized that into an easy-to-understand thesis. on top of directional long memory supercycle after breakdowns of Samsung/Sk Hynix projections. Not everyone can profit off of Jane Street algorithms and foresee South Korea citing increasing volatility across the board!
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解析$EWY波动率错配引发的Vega扩张现象。
这是波动率错配引发的 Vega 扩张（Vega expansion）的实际表现。 $EWY 的隐含波动率（Implied Volatility, IV）指数下降。 整个长期期权链（Long term option chain）上涨。 https://t.co/EEuYTCyxYH
原推 ↗英文原文
This is Vega expansion in action from volatility mispricing. $EWY SK index down. Entire long term option chain up. https://t.co/EEuYTCyxYH
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分析XLU期权波动潜力及EWY存储周期重估逻辑。
$XLU 的虚值期权(OTM)由于隐含波动率(IV)较低，双向大幅波动的可能性更大。如果这是因电网现代化和 AI 推理而出现的百年一遇的重估，可能会非常有趣。 $EWY 极大概率会出现 Vega 扩张 + 基于存储超级周期的方向性做多，但除非市场将三星定价为美国超大规模云厂商并消除韩国折价，否则一年内翻 10 倍的可能性极小。
原推 ↗英文原文
$XLU with OTM is likely to move a lot more both ways due to low IV. If it is a once in history re-rating bc of grid modernization and ai inference), could be very interesting. $EWY is high probability Vega expansion + directional long from memory supercycle but extremely unlikely to return 10x in a year unless markets price in Samsung like a US hyperscaler + remove the Korean discount
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$EWY因三星/SK海力士传导效应被低估，建议买入2028年OTM看涨期权。
感觉很多人误解了这篇帖子中的深度研究(DD)： 核心观点：$EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)可能会保持高位。 目前实现波动率(Realized Volatility)可能在60%高段至70%低段。 长期可能稳定在~55%，因为： 尽管有任何重新加权，SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的传导集中度(pass through concentration)巨大。 随着SK海力士权重增加，其他主要持仓如SK Square（因其持有20%股份，其市值的90%来自SK海力士股票）的权重也会增加。 三星的情况也是如此。 表面上看两者上限为50%，但传导结构(pass through structures)会大幅放大该价值。 尽管有新权重，随着传导结构导致其市值上升，$EWY将越来越成为SK海力士/三星的看涨期权(call option)。 2028年虚值(OTM)LEAPS期权作为波动性存储名称的看涨期权，其40%低段的IV定价被低估。 并且很可能从当前水平的Vega扩张中受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feels like a lot of people misunderstood the DD in this post: Main point: $EWY IV will likely stay elevated. Currently realized is probably in the high 60’s, low 70’s. Long term likely settles ~55% because: Pass through concentration in SK Hynix and Samsung is enormous despite any re-weighting. As SK Hynix increases, other top weightings like SK Square (90% of its MC comes from SK Hynix equity since it’s a 20% shareholder) will increase. Same with Samsung. It looks like 50% max for them both, but pass through structures balloons that value a lot. Despite new weights, $EWY will increasingly become a call option on SK Hynix / Samsung as their MCs go up from pass-through structure. 2028 OTM leaps are mispriced at low 40’s IV as a call on volatile memory names. And will likely benefit from Vega expansion at current levels.
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调侃韩国总统交易背景解释韩股暴涨
今日新知：韩国总统曾是日内交易者？ 现在我明白为什么韩国综合指数(KOSPI)、$EWY、三星和SK海力士(SK Hynix)都在暴涨了。
原推 ↗英文原文
TIL: South Korea’s President was a day trader? Now I understand why KOSPI, $EWY, Samsung, and SK Hynix are getting sent to the moon. https://t.co/9YqBHkxdjI
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看好未来两年韩国股市及SK海力士、三星估值重估。
@Michael_Tran_90 你自己做决定！我最近发布了一篇关于 $EWY 波动率扩张的更新，我认为在接下来的两年里，韩国综合股价指数(KOSPI)、SK海力士/三星的估值将得到强劲重估。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Michael_Tran_90 Make that decision yourself! I posted an update on $EWY volatility expansion recently and I do see KOSPI, SK Hynix/Samsung being strongly rerated over the next two years.
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XLU为电网扩张结构性多头，EWY押注定价错误致波动率扩张。
@Yannis_ko $XLU 更多是源于电力/电网投资和扩张的结构性增量（方向性做多）交易。 $EWY 则是对定价错误导致的波动率扩张的押注。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Yannis_ko $XLU is more of a structural delta (directional long) play from power/grid investments and expansion. $EWY was a call on volatility expansion from mispricing.
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博主复盘成功预测韩国指数波动率扩张的战绩。
我仍然不敢相信我预测了韩国综合指数（KOSPI）通过 $EWY 的波动率扩张。 而且我预测对了。 一周后： 隐含波动率全面上升了16%（仍在继续上涨）。 这大概是我在 X 平台上最酷的“网飞特供”成就之一 https://t.co/JPZ3DE5MrB
原推 ↗英文原文
I still can’t believe I called for the volatility expansion of South Korea’s National Index with $EWY. And I got it right. One week later: Implied Volatility increased by 16% across the board (still going too). Probably my coolest “Netflix Special” accomplishment to date on X https://t.co/JPZ3DE5MrB
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分析$EWY隐含波动率低估，建议做多2028年虚值看涨期权以捕捉波动率扩张及三星/SK海力士上涨红利。
2028年$EWY的隐含波动率(IV)可能会大幅上升（目前约44%）。 实际波动率(Realized Volatility)的定价应在~65-68%+。 因此，仅凭波动率 Vega 扩张，2028年虚值(OTM)长期看涨期权(LEAP Call)的价值可能会再次翻倍。 大多数人没有意识到这一点，但其前十大持仓包括： 1. SK Square（集中度排名第5）。其净资产(NAV)的90%是SK海力士(SK Hynix)。 2. 三星生命保险，作为三星电子最大股东之一，其净资产与之挂钩。 3. 三星C&T（$EWY的重要组成部分）持有三星约5%的股份作为其净资产。 4. 三星火灾海上保险：持有三星电子1.49%的股份（鉴于三星电子体量巨大，这构成了其净资产的很大一部分）。 5. 三星C&T -> 拥有三星生命（间接持有三星电子）。 6. 三星电机 / 三星SDS -> 很大程度上与三星电子的资本支出(Capex)周期绑定。 7. 三星电子优先股 - 无投票权优先股被视为独立实体，但权重增加。 SK海力士和三星权重的穿透集中度显著高于算法和市场的认知。 你会看到，实际波动率并非如此，因为具有广泛分散性的指数不会随着三星/SK海力士的表现而每天上下波动6%。或者2个月内波动42%... 或者12个月内波动145%... 如果ETF按季度再平衡，你会看到更多权重流入像SK海力士这样波动性更大的名称，以及那些将三星和SK海力士作为净资产的小型所有者的权重上升幅度更大。 这又因做市商(MMs)尚未定价的未实现波动率而加剧，来源包括： - 10倍杠杆的三星/SK海力士永续合约。 - 2倍杠杆的三星/SK海力士ETF即将获批和发行。 动态对冲这两者将增加三星+SK海力士的波动率，并通过二阶效应 -> $EWY。 所以说它是“SK指数”基本上就是三星和SK海力士，并非玩笑。 而44%的IV定价来自平坦的韩国10年期指数。 当来自存储超级周期的新波动率成为结构性时。 TLDR： - 做多虚值看涨期权实际上是以44% IV买入SK海力士/三星的看涨期权。 - 单独来看，它们的IV可能在73-88%左右。 - 考虑到其他成分股，实际IV可能处于60%中段。 - 如果2028年虚值看涨期权的IV从44%上升到65%+，仅波动率扩张就会增加期权价值。 - 市场有时存在真正的低效，这看起来就是其中之一。 这是一笔波动率扩张交易，加上在未来两年的存储、机器人、晶圆代工超级周期中做多SK海力士/三星的额外好处。
原推 ↗英文原文
2028 IV for $EWY will likely go much higher (~44% right now). Realized should be priced around ~65-68%+. So, 2028 OTM leap call value may double again from volatility Vega Expansion alone. Most people don’t this but top holdings include: 1. SK Square (#5 concentration). 90% of their NAV is SK Hynix. 2. Samsung Life Insurance, NAV as one of the largest shareholders of Samsung Electronics. 3. Samsung C&T (large part of $EWY) owns ~5% of Samsung as its NAV. 4. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: 1.49% stake in Samsung Electronics (given how big Samsung Electronics is, it makes up a large part of NAV) 5. Samsung C&T -> owns Samsung Life (which indirectly owns Samsung Electronics) 6. Samsung Electro-Mechanics / Samsung SDS -> Largely tethered to Samsung Electronics Capex cycles. 7. Samsung Electronics Preferred Shares - Non-voting preferred shares are treated as separate entities, but increases in weighting. Pass through concentration of SK Hynix and Samsung weightings is significantly higher than algorithms and markets think. And you see that realized, as Indexes with broad diversification don’t go up and down 6% a day depending on Samsung/Sk Hynix performance. Or 42% in 2 months... or 145% in 12 months... If the ETF rebalances quarterly, you get more weighting into more volatile names like SK Hynix and the weighting of smaller owners that own Samsung and SK Hynix as NAV go up more than others. This is compounded with unrealized volatility that MMs have not priced in yet from: - 10x Leverage Samsung / Sk Hynix perps now. - 2x leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix ETFs approvals and release soon. Dynamically hedging both of these will increase volatility on Samsung + SK Hynix and by second order effect -> $EWY. So, it's not a joke when you say its SK Index is basically Samsung and Sk Hynix. And that 44% IV pricing comes from the flat 10 year Korean index. When the new volatility from the memory supercycle is structural. TLDR: - Long OTM calls is effectively calls on Sk Hynix/Samsung at 44% IV. - Individually they likely sit around 73-88%. - When you account for other names, realized IV may sit in the mid 60's. - Vega expansion on 2028 OTM calls if they go from 44% to 65%+ would increase option values from volatility expansion alone. - There are genuine inefficiencies with the markets sometimes and this looks like one of them. This is a volatility expansion trade coupled with the added benefit of long SK Hynix/Samsung during the memory, robotics, foundry supercycles for the next two years.
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利用时区差异进行韩国指数与SK海力士的统计套利，揭示市场低效。
交易思路： 利用韩国 $EWY 期货（美盘）与 SK 海力士（欧盘）的时区差异，进行多市场套利。 如果 $EWY 大幅上涨而 SK 海力士（HY9H）走势平稳： > 买入法兰克福上市的 SK 海力士是一种统计套利。 因为相较于欧洲单只股票，$EWY 的美国期货定价更为准确。 该交易逻辑是——如果美国期货上的韩国指数大幅上涨： -> 鉴于指数集中度高，SK 海力士个股有很大概率跟随上涨（甚至更多）。 本质上是指数与成分股的相关性加上统计套利，并非无风险套利。 我在“淋浴思考”频道举过一个例子：当 $EWY 上涨约 3.8% 时，SK 海力士欧盘仅上涨 0.4%。 > 我预期 SK 海力士 HY9H（当时走势平稳且欧元价差较小）会弥补美国期货与法兰克福市场之间的延迟，并在次日定价。 我能在收盘前获得不错的成交，且未大幅推动股价，然后在当天或下一个欧洲交易日卖出，获利几个百分点。 总结： 外国股票中存在与时区相关的低效现象。 这些思路在被他人发现前可能是金矿。但这个具体思路在太多人看到后可能已经失效。 但市场低效确实存在。
原推 ↗英文原文
Trade idea: Korean $EWY Futures (US) -> SK Hynix (EU) time zone, multi-venue arbitrage. If EWY is up a lot while SK Hynix (HY9H) is flat: > Buying SK Hynix Frankfurt is a statistical arbitrage. as US futures in $EWY are accurate compared to EU single stock. The trade was - if Korean Indexes on US futures go up by a large amount: -> SK Hynix individually has a high probability of going up by similar amounts (if not more) given high index concentration. Basically index to component correlation + statistical arbitrage, not risk-free arbitrage. One example I posted in my shower thoughts channel was when $EWY was up ~3.8% then SK Hynix EU was only up .4%. > My expectation was SK Hynix HY9H (which was close to flat + spread on EUR) would play catchup to the delay between US futures and Frankfurt > be priced in the next day. Was able to get a decent amount of fill near close before moving the stock too much, then sell same day or next EU trading day for a few percent gain. TLDR: Time-zone related inefficiencies can be found across foreign equities. These ideas can be a gold mine before it gets discovered by others. This idea in specific is now likely gone after too many people see this. But, market inefficiencies do exist.
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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2028年$EWY期权定价错误，杠杆产品普及后或再翻倍。
不过这也说得通，2028年的远期期权定价严重错误，并非短期期权。仅凭隐含波动率(IV)扩张，2028年虚值(OTM) $EWY 期权就可能带来200%的收益。虽然已大幅补涨，但一旦2倍杠杆ETF以及10倍杠杆的SK海力士和三星永续合约(perps)流行起来，价格可能再翻一番。
原推 ↗英文原文
Makes sense though, 2028 leaps were extremely mispriced, not short dated options. Would probably be a 200% gain alone off IV expansion off 2028 OTM $EWY options. It’s caught up a decent amount but would probably double again once 2x leveraged ETFs and 10x leveraged SK Hynix and Samsung perps gain popularity.
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分析$EWY套利机会及SK海力士估值优势
很有可能。对于隐含波动率(IV)套利，目前处于IV扩张的尾声，但$EWY仍是一个不错的机会。 IV 45%并不意味着每天波动6%，尤其是在10倍永续合约和2倍杠杆ETF推出之前。 话虽如此，韩国指数可能会继续上涨，甚至可能翻倍。SK海力士在2027年的利润将超过谷歌，但其市值仅为谷歌的1/9。
原推 ↗英文原文
Probably. For the IV arbitrage, it’s on the tail end on IV expansion but still a good opportunity with $EWY. IV 45% does not move 6% a day, especially before 10x perps and 2x leverage ETFs come out. That being said Korean index will likely keep going up and maybe double. Sk Hynix is making more than Google in 2027 and is valued at like 1/9th the mc.
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作者分享观点并指出EWY看涨期权可能因IV扩张而翻倍。
@jflood215 随时欢迎，我喜欢免费公开我的观点供任何人阅读！ 鉴于波动性，隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)很容易扩张至~60%，因此看涨期权(Calls)可能会因IV扩张而再次翻倍（这还不包括 $EWY 股价上涨带来的收益）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jflood215 Anytime, I like to publish my ideas for free for anyone to read! IV could easily expand to ~60% given the volatility, so calls might double again off IV expansion (not including $EWY price going up)
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回顾$EWY因隐含波动率扩张导致组合翻倍的传奇交易。
这大概是我至今最传奇的预测之一？ 仅凭隐含波动率(IV)的扩张，你的投资组合在一周内就会翻倍。 希望匿名者你听进去了——$EWY。 IV：32% -> 44.7%，且仍在上升。https://t.co/UPAzgzKsfx
原推 ↗英文原文
Probably up there with my most legendary calls to date? Your portfolio would have doubled in a week off IV expansion alone. Hope you listened anon - $EWY. IV: 32% -> 44.7% and still going. https://t.co/UPAzgzKsfx
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反驳美光IV定价，指出韩国ETF因波动率扩张受益。
@diyinvestguy 不，美光科技($MU)的隐含波动率(IV)定价是正确的。我唯一的论点是韩国交易所ETF($EWY)的隐含波动率存在偏差，并且随着韩国指数从记忆中回升，其隐含波动率扩张(Vega expansion)会带来收益。
原推 ↗英文原文
@diyinvestguy No Micron’s IV is priced correctly. My only argument was $EWY IV is off and benefits from Vega expansion over time as Korean index goes up from memory
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通过图表目测隐含波动率，利用定价错误加速看涨期权收益。
IV（隐含波动率）是衡量隐含波动程度的指标。你可以通过图表大致进行目测检验。$EWY 每天的波动幅度，甚至超过那些高波动率公司（例如 $MRVL，波动率55%）一周内的波动。有时波动率会被错误定价，如果你能发现这一点，当市场正确重新定价波动率时，你的看涨期权（Calls）上涨速度会快于正常水平。
原推 ↗英文原文
IV is a measurement of implied volatility. You can kinda eyeball test it based on the chart. $EWY moves more in every day than companies with volatility (eg. $MRVL 55%) does a within a week. Sometimes volatility is priced wrong and if you spot that, your calls go up faster than normal when market markets price in volatility correctly.
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AI存储周期致$EWY隐含波动率被低估，存在结构性错配机会。
71%的隐含波动率(IV) $MU（1周期限）。 对比 40%的隐含波动率(IV) $EWY（同日）。 只是抛砖引玉……2028年价外(OTM)的LEAPS期权受益于这种百年一遇的隐含波动率错配。 这是由AI存储超级周期带来的结构性转变。 尤其是当做市商(MMs)参考韩国过去10年走势平坦的历史数据时。
原推 ↗英文原文
71% IV $MU (1 week) volatility. vs. 40% IV $EWY (same day) volatility. Just putting it out there… 2028 OTM leaps benefit from once a generation IV volatility mispricing. This is a structural shift from AI memory supercycle. Especially when MMs are looking at historical 10 year flat periods for Korea.
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因做市商波动率定价错误，EWY看涨期权leaps或为良机。
@jseth53 只是说，鉴于做市商(MMs)可能错误定价了波动率，$EWY 的看涨期权杠杆产品(leaps)由于看涨期权隐含波动率(Vega)扩张，仍然可能是一个不错的交易思路。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jseth53 Just saying $EWY leaps is still might be a good trade idea from call vega expansion since MMs likely priced in volatility wrong.
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$EWY期权IV被低估，杠杆衍生品将推高波动率，看涨期权或受益。
$EWY 看起来即将变得更加波动。 做市商可能没有正确地将跳跃期权隐含波动率(IV)定价，因为 IV 可能会扩张至 55% 以上。 有两个原因源于未实现（但即将到来）的波动性。 - 10 倍杠杆的三星/SK 海力士通过去中心化金融(DeFi) 已经出现，因为它们开始产能爬坡。 如果规模变得很大，这会在期货（如 $EWY）的清算和对冲上产生大量的未实现波动性。 $EWY 由一半的 SK 海力士/三星组成，而韩国指数本身已经非常波动。 - 三星和 SK 海力士的 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF 即将到来 2026 年 1 月，韩国监管机构正式宣布允许国内 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF。 同样，这增加了未实现的波动性。 但就目前的期权 IV 定价而言，$EWY 的波动幅度相当极端。 如果非要打个比方，它的百分比波动范围肯定大于 $MRVL（IV 为 55-56%，而 $EWY 仍为 41%）。 三星的对应物可能是 $MU（约 70%），SK 海力士更接近 $SNDK（91%），但可能在 70-80% 范围内。 而且……韩国指数基本上就是 SK 海力士和三星。 随着三星/SK 海力士开始从存储超级周期中重新评级，这种波动性可能会成为新常态。但做市商可能仍然在使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH) 模型或基于长期平均值（当时指数完全平坦）的波动率预测投影。 来自 10 倍杠杆衍生品的数量将仅仅为这些个股的对手方和做市商创造更多的对冲/波动性 -> 这会滞后地反映在 $EWY 的定价中。 简而言之：随着做市商未能正确定价 IV 和未实现波动性，$EWY 看涨期权可能会从 Vega 扩张中受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
$EWY looks like it's about to get more volatile. Market makers might not be pricing in leap option IV correctly as IV may expand past 55%. Two reasons due to unrealized (but upcoming) volatility. - 10X leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix through Defi are here as they begin ramp-up. This creates a great amount of unrealized volatility from liquidations and hedging on futures like $EWY if this ends up becoming large. $EWY is half Sk Hynix / Samsung, and the South Korean index is already really volatile. - 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs for Samsung and SK Hynix are coming In January 2026, South Korean regulators officially announced they will permit domestic 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs. Again, this just adds to unrealized volatility. But as it stands right now regarding option IV pricing. $EWY moves pretty extreme amounts. If I had to give a comparison, it definitely moves in greater % ranges than $MRVL, which sits at 55-56% IV (while $EWY is 41% still). Samsung's equivalent is probably $MU (70%-ish), Sk Hynix is closer to $SNDK (91%) but likely in 70-80% range. And... South Korea's index is basically just Sk Hynix and Samsung. This volatility would likely be the new norm as Samsung/SK Hynix begin their re-rating from the memory supercycle. But MMs are still probably using garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages (where index was completely flat) And the amount of leveraged derivatives from 10x will just create more hedging/volatility on these individual stocks from counterparties and market makers -> that gets priced in late to $EWY. TLDR: $EWY calls likely benefit from vega expansion as MMs aren't pricing in IV and unrealized volatility correctly.
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指出$EWY期权定价错误，利用算法偏差获取维加扩张收益。
做市商可能很讨厌我。 $EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)在5天内从32%升至42%（基于2年期LEAPS期权）。 仅凭IV/维加(Vega)扩张就能获得约30%以上的免费利润。 衍生品中偶尔会出现套利机会。 算法并不总是能正确定价。 https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
原推 ↗英文原文
Market makers probably hate me. $EWY IV went from 32% -> 42% in 5 days on 2 year leaps. Would be a free ~30%+ profit off IV/vega expansion alone. There’s rare cases of arbitrage opportunities off derivatives. Algorithms don’t always price things in correctly. https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
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利用韩国指数期权定价错误，做多$EWY看涨期权以捕捉存储周期波动率扩张。
指数下跌-2.46%。整个期权链全线飘红+13-20%。 这就是当你发现做市商在期权链中存在定价错误时会发生的情况。 话虽如此，隐含波动率(IV)回升至更合理的38-39%，但个别组件（SK海力士、三星）的波动率可能仍有几个百分点的偏差。 （引用内容翻译）： 我发布在“淋浴思考”频道的交易思路： 韩国指数波动率套利并利用布莱克-斯科尔斯模型。 $EWY 看涨期权似乎存在定价错误。 这是贝莱德旗下的韩国指数，主要由存储芯片（三星电子、SK海力士）构成。 尽管该指数被定价为普通指数的隐含波动率，但个股每日波动2-5%+，且1年涨幅达136.25%。 三星波动剧烈。SK海力士波动剧烈（例如预估65%-80%）。 但通过指数组合后的定价远低于低贝塔值的 $GOOGL (37.33%) 和 $AMZN (39.12%)，隐含波动率仅约32%。 我观察 $EWY 一段时间，它确实看起来波动很大。 至于定价，我猜测做市商(MM)基于历史平均值（5-10年）定价隐含波动率，当时韩国指数完全持平。他们预期两年后的看涨期权会回归均值。 但这种波动率应成为新常态，因为市场正在定价新的存储超级周期（例如 $TSM 从30% IV升至46.2% IV）。 看涨期权将从三星+SK海力士带动指数上涨中受益。 主要好处是你能获得 $KORU 无法提供的 Vega 扩张。 你也无法像美国个股那样获得这种期权做市商的压盘效应，因为这是韩国国家指数且期限较长。 简而言之：个别组件SK海力士+三星具有高波动性。 它们基本占指数的一半，但指数期权以低波动率定价，或许是因为基于过去5-10年的历史数据。 看涨期权将从未正确定价的 Vega 扩张中受益，因为做市商的前瞻波动率估计过于锚定于历史已实现波动率，而过去5-10年 $EWY 的波动率很低。
原推 ↗英文原文
Index down -2.46%. The entire option chain green +13-20%. This is what happens when when you find mispricing in option chains by market makers. That being said it’s a more respectable 38-39% IV, but maybe few percent off (SK Hynix, Samsung) individual components volatility still.
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建议定投$EWY以布局存储周期，并澄清期权策略不适合所有人。
@TalentActivity 是的，定投(DCA) $EWY 股票似乎是获取三星/海力士敞口并参与存储超级周期的绝佳想法。这条帖子只是在讨论2028年的跳跃以及由定价不足的波动率带来的隐含波动率(Vega)扩张，期权并不适合所有人。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TalentActivity Yeah DCA $EWY shares seem like a great idea to get exposure to Samsung/Sk Hynix and the memory supercycle. This post was just discussing 2028 leaps and vega expansion from underpriced volatility, options are not the best way to go for everyone.
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利用$EWY期权定价错误，做多看涨期权以捕捉存储超级周期带来的维加扩张。
我发布在“淋浴思考”频道的交易思路： 韩国指数波动率套利，并利用布莱克-斯科尔斯模型(Black-Scholes models)。 $EWY 的看涨期权似乎定价错误。 这是贝莱德(Blackrock)的韩国指数，主要由存储芯片（三星电子、SK海力士）构成。 该指数每日波动2-5%以上，尽管隐含波动率(IV)定价像普通指数，但过去一年仍上涨了136.25%。 三星波动大。SK海力士波动也大（例如估算65%-80%）。 但通过指数组合后的定价远低于低贝塔值的 $GOOGL (37.33%) 和 $AMZN (39.12%)，约为32%的IV。 我观察 $EWY 一段时间，它确实看起来很波动。 至于定价，我猜测做市商(MMs)基于历史平均值（5-10年）定价IV，当时韩国指数完全持平。他们预期两年后的看涨期权会均值回归。 但这种波动应成为新常态，因为市场正在定价新的存储超级周期（例如 $TSM 从30% IV升至46.2% IV）。 看涨期权将从三星+SK海力士带动指数中受益。 主要好处是你无法从 $KORU 获得的维加(Vega)扩张。 你也无法像美国个股那样获得期权做市商的压盘效应，因为这是韩国的国家指数且期限较长。 简而言之：个别成分股SK海力士+三星具有高波动性。 它们基本上占指数的一半，但指数期权以低波动性定价，可能是因为基于5-10年的历史数据。 看涨期权将从维加扩张中受益，因为做市商的前瞻性波动率估算过于锚定于历史已实现波动率，而过去5-10年 $EWY 的历史波动率较低。
原推 ↗英文原文
Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel: Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models. $EWY long options seem mispriced. This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix). The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV. Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est). But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV. I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile. As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean. But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV). Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index. And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU. You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term. TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile. They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data. Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years
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看好AXTI作为光子学InP材料瓶颈，预计2026下半年因需求激增出现短缺。
我持有 $AXTI 的多头头寸。 今天我们正目睹 $SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士和三星带来的 HBM/NAND 超级周期，由于需求极度旺盛，价格持续上涨。 下一个是什么？-> 光子学 | 共封装光学(CPO) | 光互连。 需求规模呈现抛物线式增长。（Lightcounting 数据） 我对 AXT 的投资逻辑是：它是从磷化铟(InP)衬底到前驱体供应链的材料瓶颈。而 LightCounting 在过去几个月将需求预测翻了三倍。 这是一个物理/材料问题。 未来，西方供应链可以通过硅光子(SiPh)或 $POET 中介层来减少 InP 衬底/原料的使用。但超大规模云服务商无法绕过这一限制。 目前，中游瓶颈如 $LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 等依赖住友 | JX（日本）等西方供应链。 但这些公司使用的许多前驱体源自中国。在中国最近的出口管制后，日本公司虽有部分产能，但缺乏原料前驱体，他们可能正在消耗库存（约1年，无公开信息）。 但随着超大规模云服务商需求激增，库存将耗尽，使 $AXTI 掌握更多供应链控制权。 我们已经看到 $NVDA 确保了 EML 产能（使用 InP）。CPO CW 激光器、SOA 和其他组件也使用 InP。 “短缺”瓶颈正是 $AXTI 卡脖子的 InP 晶圆产线。 根据预测，我预计超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年开始为 2028 年的扩张储备库存，导致 2026 年下半年供应短缺。 $AXTI 的主要问题在于出口管制 + 60 天行政延迟。中国可能正通过 $AXTI 出牌，迫使美国超大规模云服务商依赖其供应链而非日本。 这在财报前的延迟收入确认中体现为双刃剑。但这些出口管制对住友等竞争对手伤害最大。 即使上游没有看到 100% 的月度涨价，基准情形下 InP 衬底和前驱体需求的增加也将提升 AXT 的营收底线。 AXT 仍是我对 2027 年及以后即将到来的超大规模光子学扩张最看多的材料瓶颈标的。 起初我认为这只是一个短期的风险对冲交易，但在研究了涉及光子学的新数据和架构后，我认为 $AXTI 将是未来 AI 建设的关键参与者。 我的逻辑可能过早，或者这恰恰是拐点。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm long shares on $AXTI. We're seeing the HBM/NAND supercycle with $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung today. With constant price hikes due to extreme demand. The next? -> Photonics | CPO | Optical Interconnects. Demand scale up looks parabolic. (Lightcounting) My thesis was on on AXT was that they're the material bottleneck from InP Substrates to the precursor supply chain. And LightCounting's projections tripled the demand forecast in the past few months. This is a physics/material problem. In the future, Western supply chains can engineer away less InP substrates/feedstock usage with SiPh or $POET interposers. But hyperscalers can't get around it. Currently, midstream bottlenecks like $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others rely on Western supply chains like Sumitomo | JX (Japan). But many precursors that companies these companies originated from China. After China's most recent export controls, the Japanese companies have some production, but without raw precursors, they are likely using inventory (maybe 1 year, there is no public information). But as hyperscaler demand ramps up, the inventory will disappear, leaving more control of the supply chain to $AXTI. We've already see $NVDA secure EML capacity (which uses InP). CPO CW lasers, SOA, and other components also use InP. The "shortage" bottleneck is the same InP wafer lines that $AXTI chokepoints. Judging from the projections, I expect hyperscalers to start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026. $AXTI's main issue is export controls + 60D administrative delays. China is likely playing their hand with $AXTI to force American hyperscalers to become dependent on their supply chain over Japan. This has been a double edged sword as seen with their pre-earnings release with delayed revenue recognition. But these export controls hurt their competitors in Sumitomo the most. Even if we don't see 100% monthly price hikes upstream, the base-case is ramped up demand for InP substrates and precursors increasing AXT's bottom line revenue. AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward. Before I expected this to be a short few month play for risk management, but after looking new data and architectures involving photonics, I think $AXTI will likely be a critical player for the AI buildout moving forward. My thesis might be early, or perhaps this may very well be the inflection point.
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不建议买3倍杠杆ETF，建议用保证金替代。
无法推荐像 $KORU 这样的3倍杠杆ETF，因为随着时间推移存在波动率衰减(volatility decay)以及黑天鹅事件(black swan events)的风险。 看看周五白银暴跌33%的情况就知道了。不是说韩国ETF也会发生这种事，但风险是非零的。 如果你想要更高的杠杆，直接在 $EWY 或 $FLKR 上使用保证金(margin)即可。
原推 ↗英文原文
Can't recommend 3x leveraged ETFs like $KORU because of volatility decay over time and black swan events. Just look at what happened with Silver on Friday crashing 33%. Not saying it's going to happen with Korean ETFs, but the risk is nonzero. Just use margin on $EWY or $FLKR if you want more leverage.
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韩国存储股估值极低，建议通过ETF或个股配置。
韩国存储股可能仍有大量重估空间。 2026年远期市盈率（摩根士丹利）： SK海力士 ~4.3倍 三星电子 ~5.1倍 相关标的：$EWY 或 $FLKR | $HY9H。 即便每月上涨15-30%，它们依然处于历史最便宜水平。 https://t.co/lzUH0jWxk1
原推 ↗英文原文
Korean memory stocks likely have a lot of repricing to do. Forward P/E for 2026 (Morgan Stanley): SK Hynix ~4.3x Samsung Electronics ~5.1x For exposure: $EWY or $FLKR | $HY9H. Even after going up 15-30% every month, they're cheaper than ever. https://t.co/lzUH0jWxk1
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对比通过ETF间接持有与直接持有SK海力士的成本与优劣。
@CapSimplified 问得好。给大家一个提示(PSA)，关于 $EWY 和 $FLKR。在韩国方面，这两者对 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)/三星的敞口约为 50%。 对于直接投资 SK 海力士，欧洲市场有 $HY9H。但价差(spreads)高得离谱，除非你是长期持有，否则交易体验极差。而且你一开始可能就会亏损 0.5%-1%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@CapSimplified Good question. PSA to everyone else, $EWY and $FLKR. ~50% exposure to Sk Hynix/Samsung for KR. For direct SK Hynix, $HY9H for EUR. But the spreads are insanely high, so it's really bad to trade unless you're holding long term. And you're probably losing .5%-1% off the bat.
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澄清$EWY仅含SK海力士和三星，原帖指其他受益者。
@WaterFish2000 $EWY 用于获取 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星电子(Samsung Electronics)的敞口。这条帖子是为了其他受益者，特别是除了它们之外的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@WaterFish2000 $EWY is for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics exposure. This post was for other beneficiaries that are specifically not them.
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南亚科因巨头退出成熟存储市场成唯一供应商，享稀缺溢价，股价低估。
南亚科(TPE: 2408)是我在存储领域的多头持仓之一，与$MU、SK海力士和三星并列。 但理由不同。 你可能在想，这种抛物线趋势（1年+972%）是否会停止？可能不会。 而且它每天还在上涨7%。 以下是简单的总结： 其远期市盈率仅为~13.62（随着涨价，现在可能更低）。 营收同比增长+357.7%/净利润同比增长+804.27%，其利润天文数字般巨大。 类似于美光上个月57.56%+的增速，且自从我首次提及以来已翻倍有余： 股价简直跟不上。 当巨头（三星、SK海力士和$MU）争夺高端AI市场时，南亚科专注于PC、计算机电子和工业领域的成熟及特种DRAM产品。（尽管他们也在做1b节点的先进芯片）。 存储公司留下了巨大的空白，而南亚科填补了它： 美光 - 完全退出消费级产品线 SK海力士 - 几乎完全专注于HBM4和服务器级DRAM。 三星 - 将30-40%的成熟产线重新分配给先进AI存储。 南亚科 - 最后的坚守者 需求保持稳定，但成熟DRAM供应突然断崖式下跌。且它仍被广泛使用于： - 消费级PC和笔记本电脑：2015至2023年间生产的数百万台电脑使用DDR4 - 智能手机：大多数中端和入门级智能手机使用LPDDR4 - 家庭电子产品：智能电视、游戏机（如旧款Nintendo Switch或PS4）使用这些。 基本上，它们仍需生产这些，但南亚科手握所有牌。 买家为旧内存支付“稀缺溢价”，因为他们无处可买，且在一个无聊的市场中看到了供应冲击。 南亚科本质上成了沙漠中卖水的人。他们可以不断抬高水的价格。 我做多这家在沙漠中卖水的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nanyna (TPE: 2408) is one of my longs alongside $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory. But for a different reason. You might be thinking if this parabolic trend (+972% 1Y). is going to stop? Probably not. And it just keeps going up 7% a day. Here's a simple TLDR why: The forward P/E is only ~13.62 (likely lower now with price hikes). With +357.7% Revenue Growth/+804.27% Net Income Growth Y/Y, their profits are astronomical. Similar to Micron and their 57.56%+ last month, and more than doubling since I first mentioned it: The stock price literally can't keep up. While the giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU) are fighting over the high-end AI market, Nanya specialized in the legacy and specialty DRAM products from PCs, computer electronics, and industrial. (They are doing advanced chips though with 1b Nodes though). And the memory companies left a massive void Nanya filled: Micron - Total Exit from Consumer Lines SK Hynix - Focusing almost entirely on HBM4 and server-grade DRAM. Samsung - Reallocating 30–40% of legacy lines to advanced AI memory. Nanya - Last man standing Demand stayed steady but legacy DRAM supply suddenly fell off a cliff. And it's still widely used from: - Consumer PCs and Laptops: Millions of computers built between 2015 and 2023 use DDR4 - Smartphones: Most mid-range and budget smartphones use LPDDR4 - Home Electronics: Smart TVs, gaming consoles (like the older Nintendo Switch or PS4) use these. Basically, they still need to make these, but Nayna has all the cards. Buyers are paying a "scarcity premium" for older memory because they can't find it anywhere else and seeing a supply shock in a boring market. Nanya essentially became the guy selling water in a desert. And they can keep jacking up the price of water. I'm long on the cat sounding company selling water in the desert.
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推荐AI供应链关键外国垄断股及美股替代投资渠道。
我首选的外国股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博西(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃核心(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好“美国制造”瓶颈及供应链相关的美国标的，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)。但这些外国公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何进入外国市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博西这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博西这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数外国公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
TLDR of my top foreign stocks: 1. Nitto Boseki - T-Glass (Japan) 2. Unimicron - Substrates/Glass Core (Taiwan) 3. Samsung/SK Hynix - HBM (Korea) 4. Kioxia - NAND w/ $SNDK (Japan) 5. Nanya Technologies - Memory (Taiwan) US supply chains like $INTC (foundry), $MU (memory), or $LPTH (germanium) are typically my longs of preference "Made in America" bottleneck + supply chains. But some of these foreign companies are either critical to the entire AI buildout or capture a lot of the overflow. If you're wondering how you get access to foreign markets? - $IBKR There are US OTC equivalents for companies like Nitto Boseki like $NBCLF. If you're on Robinhood, $EWY / $FLKR provides access to large KR memory exposure. Some like Nitto Boseki are near monopolies so these are the very rare foreign companies I go out of my way to invest in.