$30
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SNDK 财报远超预期
$SNDK 的业绩实在太强了…… Q3 业绩： 营收：59.5 亿美元，对比约 47 亿美元预期（同比增长 252%，超预期 26%） EPS：23.41 美元，对比约 14.5 美元预期（超预期 62%） 毛利率：约 78.4%，对比 67.3%（比预期高 1,110 个基点） Q4 2024 指引： 营收：77.5 亿至 82.5 亿美元，对比约 65 亿美元预期（高出预期 23%） EPS：30 至 33 美元，对比约 23 美元预期（高出预期 37.0%） 存储公司（披露一下，我确实持有 Sandisk）比 $RDDT 这类靠流量数据来预判的公司更容易提前定价。 只靠 NAND 涨价之类的第三方数据……所以重估确实发生在前面，而不是财报当天。 不管怎样，这正式确认了存储公司正在起飞…… 存储厂商的业绩非常炸裂，而且今年大概率还会继续往上走。
英文原文
$SNDK earnings are just way too good... Q3 earnings: Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat) EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat) Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.) Q4 2024 projections: Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates) EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates) Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data). Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings. Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr... Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.
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GFS 光子/CPO 生态名单
Global Foundries 的光子 / CPO 生态名单： 1. $GFS - 305 亿美元 2. $CDNS - 859 亿美元 3. $SEIGY - 2172 亿美元 4. $SNPS - 840 亿美元 5. $KEYS - 573 亿美元 6. $ATEYY - 1304 亿美元 7. RoboTechnik（ficonTEC）- 114 亿美元 8. $GLW - 1412 亿美元 9. $LITE - 638 亿美元 10. $SIVE - 9.5 亿美元 11. $FN - 247 亿美元 12. $ASX - 633 亿美元 这些都是公开交易的名字。 按他们的演示材料做一个等权做多这个生态，可能也不是个坏主意？ 我还是觉得好笑，所有上市公司都在几十亿美元到几百亿美元市值，而这里却夹着一家小小的瑞典激光公司，和 $LITE 并排出现。
英文原文
Global Foundries photonics/CPO ecosystem list: 1. $GFS - $30.5B 2. $CDNS - $85.9B 3. $SEIGY - $217.2B 4. $SNPS - $84B 5. $KEYS - $57.3B 6. $ATEYY - $130.4B 7. RoboTechnik (ficonTEC) - $11.4B 8. $GLW - $141.2B 9. $LITE - $63.8B 10. $SIVE - $950m 11. $FN - $24.7B 12. $ASX - $63.3B For publicly traded names. Equal weighted long on the ecosystem from their presentation might not be a bad idea? I still find it funny how everything publicly listed is trading in the tens of billions. Then there's some small Swedish laser company there next to $LITE.
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AAOI 和 AXTI 也走对了
我之前发过 $AAOI 从 30 美元到 65 美元再到 80 美元的看法。现在已经到 150 美元了。 $AXTI 也是一样，如果你三个月前问我，这 5 只名字里每一个都会不一样。AXT 现在也从 12 美元涨到 82 美元。 我是说，市场总会变，名字也会变。
英文原文
I was posting about $AAOI $30 -> $65 -> $80. It's now $150. Same thing with $AXTI, if you asked me three months ago, all 5 names would be different. AXT is now $82 from $12. I see valuations as elevated, but I'm still personally holding. I really think they're all compelling long term, I'm just talking about shorter-term entry points.
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FLY 仍是中期看法
@sachbarnes 是啊，我对 $FLY 的中型运力 thesis 在去年 30 美元时就很看好，很高兴看到它从 20 美元回来了。 我觉得 AI 供应链里还有更有吸引力的机会。
英文原文
@sachbarnes Yeah my $FLY thesis about medium lift was at $30 last year, glad to see it’s recovered from $20. I thought there were more compelling opportunities in the AI supply chains but I’m happy it’s up a lot
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.