$IREN
观点汇总
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Sereny 将 IREN 视为“新型云”（Neocloud）板块中具备吉瓦级算力规模的高潜力标的，核心论点在于其作为比特币矿工向高性能计算转型的代表，有望承接超大规模云厂商溢出的 AI 算力需求。他看重 IREN 在供应链中的位置，认为其巨大的产能规模是未来获取巨头订单的关键优势，尽管目前缺乏如 NBIS 那样明确的微软或谷歌背书，导致其投机性高于 NBIS 但低于纯概念股。观点演变上，他初期仅观察，随后因看好板块整体爆发而买入，并在 9 月底将其纳入核心持仓（权重 2%），10 月更明确将其列为“买入”级标的，认为其融资价格高于市价构成看涨信号。他明确表态持有 IREN 股票，并在市场因宏观恐慌大跌时积极抄底，同时利用高隐含波动率卖出备兑看涨期权以增强收益，但警告短期期权风险极大，建议长期持有以博取年底前的重估机会。
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Riot获Anthropic巨额订单，AMD扩产，数据中心收入拐点预计2027下半年。
哇，$RIOT 宣布与 Anthropic 达成 91 亿美元的交易，潜在合同总额可能达 161 亿美元，期限长达 20 年。 $AMD 也行使了扩大其与 Riot 现有协议的期权。（他们仍有一个 1GW 的园区拥有意向书 (LOI) 等待租户入驻） 就时间线而言，似乎大多数数据中心 (Colo) 股票的收入拐点都将在 2027 年下半年到来？ （例如：Riot 与 Anthropic 的交易目标是在 2027 年 12 月交付首批 96MW，AMD 的 50MW 则在 2027 年 5 月） 看到像 $IREN 等前矿工们“长大成人”挺可爱的。
英文原文
Woah, $RIOT announced a $9.1B deal with Anthropic, with a possible contract extending to $16.1B, over 20Y. $AMD also exercised its option to expand its existing deal with Riot. (And they still have another 1 GW campus they have LOI with for a tenant) In terms of timelines, seem like most of the Colo basket have their revenue inflections hit H2 2027? (Eg. Riot Anthropic deal targets Dec 2027 for first 96 MW, AMD full 50 MW - May 2027) It’s cute to see all the former miners like $IREN and co. grow up.
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博主转向关注上游瓶颈，预计能源和新云将因算力短缺跑赢。
@Schulz_Research 态势感知/Leopold 关于美国向推理(推理)和巨大能源需求转移的观点完全正确。我在2025年曾对 $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 等新型云服务商(新云)持有类似论点。但我个人更转向关注上游瓶颈(上游瓶颈)和网络(网络)。不幸的是，基金未能完全熬过回撤。我们在内存集中度(内存集中度)上有重叠，但鉴于算力/容量短缺，我预计来自 $BE、$TE 的能源/电网或如 $SHAZ/$IREN 的新云将跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@Schulz_Research Situational Awareness / Leopold was completely right in terms of US shifting more toward inference + large energy demand. I had a similar thesis with Neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, and others last year in 2025. But shifted more towards upstream bottlenecks + networking personally. It's just a little unfortunate the fund couldn't fully survive the drawdown. We did overlap in memory concentration but energy/grid from $BE, $TE, or neoclouds like $SHAZ / $IREN but I'd expect them to outperform given compute/capacity shortages.
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博主调侃需靠运气才能清仓仅持有一股的IREN。
@SammyJ51 Kenneth 需要施展一些魔法，才能让我清掉我持有的 1 股 $IREN。
英文原文
@SammyJ51 Kenneth will need to do some magic to liquidate me of my 1 $IREN share.
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Citadel清算情境感知基金后，AI及半导体板块次日大幅反弹。
Citadel 真的刚刚清算了 Situational Awareness（情境感知基金）…… 然后在第二天拉起了整个市场？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 以及其他许多股票。这必须是我见过的最疯狂的清算之一 https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
英文原文
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
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超大规模云厂商资本支出强劲，计算资源稀缺，AI抛售被夸大。
以下是来自 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会议的一些要点： 微软： - 尽管资本支出增加，预计2027年将实现自由现金流(FCF)转正（这对由运营收入资助的AI建设极为有利） - “自由现金流为196亿美元，反映了更高的资本支出” - 季度资本支出为410亿美元，其中约2/3为“短期资产，主要是CPU和GPU” - 预计下一季度资本支出将超过500亿美元 - 资本支出指引约为1750亿美元，2027年资本支出大致相同。支出计划不变且符合预期。 - “将数据中心的预计使用寿命从15年延长至25年” - “我们将成为首批部署基于 $AMD Helios 和 $NVDA Vera Rubin 的下一代机架级AI基础设施的云提供商之一” - “客户需求持续超过可用容量” Meta： - 资本支出1300-1450亿美元（范围收窄），此前为1250-1450亿美元。 - Meta 收到的报价比其支付价格有“显著溢价”（计算资源稀缺，对 $IREN / $NBIS 等新云厂商有利） - 预计大部分计算资源（如埃尔帕索的1GW数据中心）将用于开发内部模型。 - Meta 在其核心业务中有多个投资回报率(ROI)为正的额外计算用途（内部使用，非Meta Compute） - “最后，我们认为整体行业产能将在可预见的未来保持紧张” - “历史上行业对AI采用浪潮的建设不足，使得现有产能，包括我们自己的，极具价值” - Susan Li 总结： - $MSFT 和 $GOOGL 主要在保持自由现金流为正或通过运营收入的同时，维持AI资本支出建设。 - $META 指出可用计算资源至少到2027年都远低于需求。$MSFT 也指出计算需求远超供应。 - 三大超大规模云服务商的资本支出基本与Google上调资本支出数字一致。 现在的AI抛售似乎被极度夸大了，超大规模云服务商继续按预期进行资本支出（微软保持自由现金流为正）甚至像 $GOOGL 那样上调。 计算资源稀缺在所有超大规模云服务商的财报电话会议中可见。
英文原文
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
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博主买入1股IREN以声援其持有者。
为了向 $IREN 的持有者表示声援：我现在持有了 1 股 IREN。
英文原文
To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN.
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AI全产业链普涨，博主质疑克莱默效应是否驱动整体行情。
铠侠(Kioxia)的存储板块收盘大涨17.18%。三星(Samsung)上涨6.15%。 来自 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 的光网络板块显示出复苏迹象，均上涨4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的“新云”(Neoclouds)板块盘前均上涨4%以上。 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL 均上涨4%以上。 “克莱默效应”(Cramer effect)对整个AI交易都有效吗？
英文原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
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Neoclouds/Colo板块受新合同及算力短缺催化强劲复苏
$IREN 因将新 AI 云合同带来的 ARR 目标从此前水平上调至 40 亿美元以上，上涨 19.69%。其客户群现包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 因一份 15 年期 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议上涨 10.45%。 $CIFR 上涨 16.76% $CLSK 上涨 13.7% $WYFI 上涨 9.18% $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在慢慢磨（反应滞后）。 但看起来，随着 Kimi 算力短缺新闻和新合同等新催化剂的出现，Neoclouds/Colo 玩家正在强劲复苏。
英文原文
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
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META租赁算力验证Neocloud模式，超大规模云厂商在照搬作业。
$META 正在洽谈以 100 亿美元交易向 Anthropic 租赁算力。看来他们看到了 $SPCX 450 亿美元算力交易的盈利性。但这进一步验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等 Neocloud 商业模式的有效性，如果超大规模云服务商都在照搬他们的作业。来源：NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
英文原文
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
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看好IREN基本面，但因薪酬和融资问题暂不买入。
@LetsGoBflo17 事实上，在收购 Mirantis 后，我从基本面角度看好 $IREN。因为它将软件编排与其现有的安全 GW 容量相结合。但除非他们解决高管股权激励薪酬和融资机制问题，否则我个人不会入场。
英文原文
@LetsGoBflo17 I actually like $IREN fundamentally post Mirantis acquisition. Since it combines software orchestration with their existing secured GW capacity. But not hopping onboard personally unless they address executive stock based compensation and financing mechanics though.
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吐槽技术分析师无视基本面，盲目依赖图表和付费信号。
@SBluelink 想象一下你每次发帖。都会有一个技术分析师(TA)兄弟发一张图表说： - 但我的 $IREN ABC 趋势显示它会通过 $60 亿 自动取款机(ATM) 发行 涨到 $125。 - 或者如果股价下跌，有人引用你的帖子说“早该听我 $40 付费的 XYZ 图表了”。 或者如果我发一个
英文原文
@SBluelink Imagine every single time you post. You have a TA bro posting a chart about: - b-but my $IREN ABC trend says it's going to $125 through the $6B ATM. - or if something drops, someone quote posts you saying "Should have listened to my $40 paywalled XYZ charts" Or if I post a
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Anthropic澳洲建厂计划印证Neoclouds布局逻辑
泄露的 Anthropic 文档显示，其计划从澳大利亚获取 1.4GW 的容量，金额约为 216 亿美元。 最近 $IREN、$SHAZ 和其他 Neoclouds（新云服务商）一直在澳大利亚建设主权数据中心 (Sovereign DCs)。 我想，就像很多事情一样，在连接性方面开始更有道理了？ （披露：无持仓）
英文原文
Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B. Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise? (disclosure: no https://t.co/V5LzknfjPP
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IREN有潜力，但融资结构问题使其难被看多。
@mazo7846 我实际上认为 $IREN 在完成 Mirantis 收购以及拥有现有产能后具有潜力。只是他们通过定向增发(ATM)和过度的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)进行融资的方式，使得仅从融资结构来看很难保持看多。
英文原文
@mazo7846 I actually think $IREN has potential after their Mirantis acquisition + capacity they have. It’s just the way they do things with ATMs and excessive SBCs makes it hard to be bullish on just from financing structures.
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IREN创始人在巨额ATM增发期间自授11.4亿股票，暗示风险。
$IREN 创始人授予自己价值 11.4 亿美元以上的股票薪酬。 分 4 年归属。此时正值他们进行 60 亿美元的主动式自动取款机(ATM)增发。 我不打算多说什么，但我觉得这不言自明。 https://t.co/IoCHVxVIXs
英文原文
$IREN founders award themselves $1.14B+ of stock based compensation. Vesting over 4 years timeframe. This is amid their active $6,000,000,000 ATM. I’m not going to say anything but I think it speaks for itself. https://t.co/IoCHVxVIXs
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批评持有IREN导致错过AI及NBIS等板块行情
我好奇错过人工智能超级周期（AI Supercycle）的行情是什么感觉…… 伴随着光子学（Photonics）、存储（Memory）， 甚至像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）。 因为你正忙着死扛（Bagholding）那些看似无尽的 $60 亿活跃提款机（Active ATMs）$IREN。
英文原文
I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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NBIS创新高而IREN套牢，证明NBIS优于IREN。
七个月后…… $NBIS 创下历史新高。 而 $IREN 的套牢盘仍在为 60 亿美元的自动取款机(ATM)融资买单，股价仍停留在 11 月的水平。 看来这场争论到此为止了？
英文原文
And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate?
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回顾早期三大主题论点兑现及IREN因抛压停滞的预测。
我早期就写过关于这三个主题的论点：新云(Neoclouds)、光子学(Photonics)和存储(Memory)。现在，看着我的论点从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 逐一兑现，感觉很有趣。甚至我的警告也对了，$IREN 因持续60亿美元的抛售而依然停滞。
英文原文
I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS . Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling
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区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
英文原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
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筛选小公司时应重点审视有毒融资和流通盘结构。
当然，第一重要的是有毒融资结构和流通盘动态。 最好的例子是当前 Neocloud 云算力公司的格局： - $IREN 基本上是垃圾，因为它有60亿美元 ATM，几乎是无限稀释，并且很可能在每次反弹时卖出，形成结构性压制。 - 相比之下，$NBIS 年初至今已经上涨153%+，原因是结构最优，比如 $NVDA 直接融资、可转债组合等。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款为 GPU 融资，背着无休止的债务利息。 这件事非常细，但你必须看流通盘动态。 如果它们确实是好公司，那么在现有持有人被稀释到极致之后做多，可能反而是好主意。 但如果你关心自己的股权增值，就应该远离有毒融资结构或有毒压制因素，例如长期侵蚀公司自由现金流(FCF)的债务利息。 小公司经常有这类问题，比如 $SLNH，在2.5亿美元市值上又有新的5亿美元 ATM。 或者像 $BKKT，不断稀释来支付高管薪酬。 在这些公司里，当网红们谈论它们时，你基本上是在把自己的钱转移给公司。所以这些都是危险信号。 很多软件公司，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利能力掩盖股权激励(SBC)。所以公司表面上看起来盈利，但由于稀释，你很可能会看到自己股权价值下降。 筛选投资想法时，需要检查的股权结构类型非常多。
英文原文
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
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比较Neocloud公司融资结构：NBIS优于CRWV和IREN。
回复 @BKCY314：融资结构差异非常大，$CRWV 正被债务利息活活吞噬。 $IREN 因为过度 ATM，股权增值很少。 $NBIS 刚刚好，而且还有来自 Avride 子公司和 ClickHouse 持股的分部估值。
英文原文
@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
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复盘NBIS作为最高信念Neocloud选择从84涨到260。
看到我最高信念的 Neocloud 选择 $NBIS 走得很好，很有意思。 去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 行业将成为重大主题的论点。 然后选出了王者。 -> Nebius 在整个行业里排名第一，从 $IREN 到 $CRWV 都不如它。 84美元 -> 260美元。 论点被市场验证。
英文原文
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
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不看好CRWV和IREN，认为NBIS是Neocloud中最平衡玩家。
回复 @Anon1pvi：不喜欢 $CRWV，债务利息太高。 至于 $IREN，无限 ATM 从结构上限制了上行。 $NBIS 是 Neocloud 中最恰到好处的玩家。
英文原文
@Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.
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批评IREN是无限ATM稀释机器。
回复 @blackwalletfr：如果我不再把垃圾叫垃圾。 当你看到 $IREN 这台无限 ATM 稀释机器时，它也不会改变其本质。
英文原文
@blackwalletfr If I stop calling trash, trash. That doesn’t change what it is, when you’re looking at the $IREN infinite ATM dilution machine.
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复盘NBIS跑赢Neocloud篮子，接近1000亿市值预测。
$NBIS 有动漫剧情护甲！ 很高兴听说 Weebius 跑赢了市场和 Neocloud 篮子（$IREN / $CIFR）。 去年 MSFT 财报后，我在 Nebius 第四季度财报后给过一个预测：Nebius 会达到1000亿美元市值。 我们现在坐在600亿美元市值，越来越近了！
英文原文
$NBIS has anime plot armor! Happy to hear Weebius has been outperforming the market and Neocloud basket ( $IREN / $CIFR ). Last year post MSFT earnings, I gave a prediction after Q4 earnings, Nebius would reach a $100B MC. We’re currently sitting at $60B MC, getting close! https://t.co/e96TirkJT8
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中文回应称自己只是普通人，并否认删除分析帖。
听人说我在中文圈都快“闪光宝可梦”了，哈哈哈。 拜托，我也就是个普通人好吗！ 平时也就是随手写点自己的想法而已。感觉最近关注度高了，也莫名其妙招来了不少黑子和瞎编的谣言。 跟最近那些胡说八道的传闻相反，其实我在推特上从来没删过任何一篇分析帖。 大家估计是把我跟哪个喊单 $IREN 的大号……
英文原文
听人说我在中文圈都快”闪光宝可梦”了, 哈哈哈。 拜托我也就是个普通人好吗！ 平时也就是随手写点自己的想法而已。感觉最近关注度高了，也莫名其妙招来了不少黑子和瞎编的谣言 跟最近那些胡说八道的传闻相反，其实我在推特上从来没删过任何一篇分析帖。 大家估计是把我跟哪个喊单 $IREN 的大board
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NBIS新投资者持股5.6%，作者持仓以来约三倍。
看看谁加入了 $NBIS 队伍。 5.6% 是相当大的持股，也许他现在意识到它比 $IREN 这个垃圾堆好得多。 话虽如此：Nebius 自我去年做多以来现在已经上涨约3倍。 Weebius 有剧情护甲。
英文原文
Look who joined team $NBIS. 5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN. That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND
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吐槽RDDT社区缺乏技术素养，将AXTI误称为MU存储竞争对手。
？？？$RDDT 的智商字面上比 $IREN 投资者还低？ 我不是做了这么多 $AXTI 研究…… 只是为了让你们在它上面赚380%，然后把它叫成 $MU 存储竞争对手，再说它是骗局？ 缺乏技术素养正是我被那里封禁的原因。
英文原文
??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM
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NBIS同期接近三倍而IREN持平或下跌，Neocloud争论已解决。
回复 @Lucha_Stocks：去年11月我和0智商 $IREN 社区有很多争论。 同一时间里，你持有 $IREN 可能持平到负收益，而 $NBIS 接近翻了三倍。 看来那场争论已经以 Weebius 获胜告终。
英文原文
@Lucha_Stocks I was having a lot of debates with the 0 IQ $IREN community last November. You would have been flat to negative on $IREN. While $NBIS close to tripled in the same timeframe. Guess that debate got resolved in Weebius’s favor
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不看好IREN，因过度有毒稀释结构限制上行，AAOI同期回报更高。
回复 @IggyPacoRico1：我看不到今天做多 $IREN 的理由，因为过度且有毒的稀释结构从结构上限制了上行。 同一时期 $IREN 持平到负收益，而 $AAOI 本可以带来300%+回报。
英文原文
@IggyPacoRico1 I see no reason to long $IREN today when upside is structurally capped with excessive and toxic dilution structures. $AAOI would have returned 300%+ in the same period $IREN was flat to negative.