$CRWV
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筛选小公司时应重点审视有毒融资和流通盘结构。
当然，第一重要的是有毒融资结构和流通盘动态。 最好的例子是当前 Neocloud 云算力公司的格局： - $IREN 基本上是垃圾，因为它有60亿美元 ATM，几乎是无限稀释，并且很可能在每次反弹时卖出，形成结构性压制。 - 相比之下，$NBIS 年初至今已经上涨153%+，原因是结构最优，比如 $NVDA 直接融资、可转债组合等。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款为 GPU 融资，背着无休止的债务利息。 这件事非常细，但你必须看流通盘动态。 如果它们确实是好公司，那么在现有持有人被稀释到极致之后做多，可能反而是好主意。 但如果你关心自己的股权增值，就应该远离有毒融资结构或有毒压制因素，例如长期侵蚀公司自由现金流(FCF)的债务利息。 小公司经常有这类问题，比如 $SLNH，在2.5亿美元市值上又有新的5亿美元 ATM。 或者像 $BKKT，不断稀释来支付高管薪酬。 在这些公司里，当网红们谈论它们时，你基本上是在把自己的钱转移给公司。所以这些都是危险信号。 很多软件公司，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利能力掩盖股权激励(SBC)。所以公司表面上看起来盈利，但由于稀释，你很可能会看到自己股权价值下降。 筛选投资想法时，需要检查的股权结构类型非常多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
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比较Neocloud公司融资结构：NBIS优于CRWV和IREN。
回复 @BKCY314：融资结构差异非常大，$CRWV 正被债务利息活活吞噬。 $IREN 因为过度 ATM，股权增值很少。 $NBIS 刚刚好，而且还有来自 Avride 子公司和 ClickHouse 持股的分部估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
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复盘NBIS作为最高信念Neocloud选择从84涨到260。
看到我最高信念的 Neocloud 选择 $NBIS 走得很好，很有意思。 去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 行业将成为重大主题的论点。 然后选出了王者。 -> Nebius 在整个行业里排名第一，从 $IREN 到 $CRWV 都不如它。 84美元 -> 260美元。 论点被市场验证。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
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不看好CRWV和IREN，认为NBIS是Neocloud中最平衡玩家。
回复 @Anon1pvi：不喜欢 $CRWV，债务利息太高。 至于 $IREN，无限 ATM 从结构上限制了上行。 $NBIS 是 Neocloud 中最恰到好处的玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.
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超大规模建设延迟溢出效应利好已锁定产能的Neocloud公司如$NBIS。
英伟达($NVDA)的黄仁勋说： “$NBIS会照顾好你的。” （引用内容）我对上个月这份报告思考得越来越多…… 它对Neocloud板块比如$NBIS（甚至$CRWV）可能比市场预期的要利好得多。 因为超大规模云服务商建设延迟的溢出效应。 这也在一定程度上解释了为什么$META签署了270亿美元的协议。 那些已经为其建设项目锁定产能/组件订单的公司，可能会成为大赢家，因为其他竞争对手停滞不前。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jensen Huang from $NVDA: “ $NBIS will take care of you. “ https://t.co/lIRrnAC3fc
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认为超大规模客户延迟扩建带来的外溢，会利好 Neocloud。
我最近对上个月那份报告想得更多了…… 我觉得它对 Neocloud 板块，比如 $NBIS，甚至 $CRWV，的利好可能比市场想象得更大。 原因在于超大规模客户扩建延迟所带来的外溢效应。 这也部分解释了为什么 $META 可能签了 270 亿美元的交易。 那些已经为扩建锁定了产能 / 组件订单的公司，大概率会成为赢家，因为其他竞争对手会被卡住。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’ve been thinking about this report more from last month… It’s probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think. Because of the hyperscaler buildout delay spillover. And partly why $META might have signed a $27B deal. Companies that already have secured capacity/component orders for their buildout are likely to be major winners as other competition stalls.
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把 OpenAI 比作地缘武器化的主体，认为 AI capex 还会延续。
OpenAI 就是科技界的伊朗。 如果他们没资金，却还造成了那么大的连锁反应——就像伊朗把无人机送到所有邻国一样——那会非常危险…… 从 $MSFT 的算力 backlog、$ORCL Stargate、$AMD 交易、$NVDA 交易、$CRWV 交易、$AMZN 交易，到 SoftBank 交易。 再加上 Cerebras 和很多私有公司的交易。 这些都足以说明，如果它倒下，支撑这些公司估值的很大一部分也会一起崩。 OpenAI 融了 1220 亿美元，我猜这部分也在某种程度上武器化了这种连锁反应，就像伊朗在控制海峡时那样。 所以 AI capex 的这波行情大概率还会再持续至少一年。 它们是 AI 牛市的起点；如果它们现在出问题，反而会成为戳破泡沫的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran. They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have…. From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals. Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others. So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations. OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait. So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min. They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.
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说如果连 CRWV 都快撑不住了，市场上大概还有更好的多头。
@BelfortsTaxGuy 如果你已经开始想，$CRWV 几乎都要撑不住了……那市场上大概还有更好的多头，我只是说一下。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BelfortsTaxGuy If you have to think about almost not sinking for $CRWV... there's probably better longs out there in the market, just saying?
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支持 Aschenbrenner 的很多长仓，但对 CRWV 和 IREN 单独看空，原因在于融资和稀释。
当然，我很尊重 Aschenbrenner，他大多数多头，比如 $BE 和 $LITE，都非常优秀。我最近也很少再看到像 Situational Awareness 这样水平的基金。 但话说回来：我非常不同意单独看多 $CRWV 和 $IREN。 如果我站在反方来看： $IREN 有很多原始产能。去年我看多，是因为大家都以为他们可以通过轻资产 colo 把它货币化。 但他们选择了高度稀释的 ATM 和 GPU 路线来变现。我仍然认为他们也可以做 colo，而且不需要碰 ATM；只是我觉得这种可能性很低。 $CRWV、$NVDA 和美国政府也许会继续给它托底，降低下行风险和传染性。 他们的软件编排做得很漂亮……
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, I have a lot of respect for the Aschenbrenner, vast majority of his longs like $BE and $LITE are stellar. I haven't really seen a fund like Situational Awareness in awhile. That being said: strongly disagree with $CRWV and $IREN individually. If I'm playing devils advocate: $IREN has a lot of raw capacity. Last year I was long since everyone thought they could monetize that through asset-lite colo. But they chose heavily dilutive ATMs and GPUs to monetize that. They still can do colo and not tap into the ATM. I just thought that's very unlikely. $CRWV, $NVDA and US Gov might just keep it backstopped and lower downside risk/contagion. They've nailed software orchestration for high margins and have real backlog/revenue. Then they can always figure out a way to refinance. Macro in general just doesn't favor capex heavy companies right now.
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对比三只Neocloud股票，认为$NBIS是最佳选择，$CRWV融资结构致命，$IREN长期增值但短期散户不利
我对$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV以及当前Neocloud市场的看法。 其中一家将在5年内成为下一个AWS： 我的猜测是Nebius。 这不是赢家通吃（DigitalOcean与亚马逊并存），但显然有更优越的结构和可能的赢家。 不利因素： ->伊朗冲突导致降息的可能性很低。 ->更广泛的市场似乎不愿意资助CapEx周期。但又想从中获益。 关于$IREN： 我们理解，4.5GW = X收入。但谁来资助GPU？ 无论谁现在买入$6,000,000,000的ATM。 赢家将是稀释完成后进入的任何人。 现实是，如果没有colo模式，他们没有足够的资金来通过GPU货币化其容量。 而且他们没有找到其他融资方式，因此由于一个会买入他们出售的任何东西的邪教社区，他们选择了ATM。 然而，我同意长期来看这是增值的。只是对现在买入的散户没那么有利。 关于$CRWV： 他们做对了一切... $NVDA支持。超大规模客户... 但他们融资完全错了。现在，超过$1.5B+的年度债务利息正在吞噬Coreweave的利润并侵蚀FCF。 就像信用卡债务一样，Coreweave找到工作来偿还债务，但最终债务利息太高，工作收入不足以覆盖债务和扩张。 如果有任何公司倒闭，$CRWV是第一个因巨额债务和利息而倒下的。 关于$NBIS： 他们正在尽可能做好... $NVDA提供$2B资助capex。 可转债发行（可转债做空对冲对短期价格上涨不利）。 但这是比Coreweave更好的融资结构，利息低得多。 他们现在有来自$META和$MSFT的约$460亿+订单积压，这两家是最盈利的超大规模云服务商之一，且没有像Coreweave那样直接关联OpenAI的风险传染。 与其他公司不同的是；他们的其他公司也有增值（Clickhouse股权增值：avride机器人出租车规模化；toloka三位数增长）。 从我来看：Nebius是明显的赢家。 然而，当前宏观环境不利于整个板块的短期持有者，指数下跌7%。 尤其是如果他们在ATM活跃时买入的话。 长期来看，当他们规模化后获益时（例如$NBIS 2026年Q4，是的，甚至$IREN），收益将是巨大的。
原推 ↗英文原文
My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.
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修正$RIOT计算，建议等$IREN稀释后做多，看空其2027年表现。
我把原先 $RIOT 年初至今(YTD)的计算搞错了，所以删掉了原帖。但这原本是一个3-6个月的短期交易思路，利用 $IREN 的 ATM 增发对现有股东造成的稀释来交易。 我确实认为，如果 $IREN 能把 ATM 额度用满，长期表现会不错，因为这比 $CRWV 那种债务利息负担更好。但代价是现有持有人被稀释。 做多 $IREN 的更好方式，是先等现有股东被稀释，再在之后做多。 话虽如此，我不认为 $IREN 会在2027年跑赢这三只股票。
原推 ↗英文原文
Messed up my original $RIOT YTD calculations so ended up deleting my post. But, it was a 3-6M short term trade idea capitalizing off $IREN ATM on existing shareholders. I do think $IREN performs well long term if they manage to fill up the ATM since it's much better than debt interest that $CRWV does. But it's at the cost of current holders. The better way to go long with $IREN is to wait until existing shareholders get diluted first then go long after. That being said, I don't think $IREN will outperform all three in 2027.
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对比挖矿股结构优劣，认为CRWV和IREN更适合作为板块下跌的对冲工具。
@jorge_r006 $RIOT、$WULF、$NBIS 在结构上处于比 $CRWV 和 $IREN 更好的位置。因此，后两者在板块下跌时能提供更好的对冲作用。话虽如此，这只是我在深入研究后抛出的一个交易想法，我目前尚未建立任何头寸。
原推 ↗英文原文
@jorge_r006 $RIOT, $WULF, $NBIS look structurally in better positions than $CRWV and $IREN are. Hence why the latter two serve as better hedges in sector declines. That being said, just floating this trade idea out after doing more research, I haven't taken any positions yet.
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警示ATM融资对散户权益的损害及特定股票风险
我关注散户利益，并对 $CRWV 的债务利息、$RVI 的高估发行以及其他像 $AVS 这样极度稀释股权且利于套利投资者的股票进行同样的风险披露。 $IREN 并非被单独点名，但它是利用散户作为流动性来源的热门股票之一。 定向增发(ATM)可能是对散户权益最具破坏性的融资方式。
原推 ↗英文原文
I care about retail interests and I do the same risk disclosures around $CRWV debt interest, $RVI inflated offerings, and other extremely dilutive stocks like $UAVS that benefit arbitrage investors. $IREN is not singled out, but it’s one of the more popular ones that use retail as liquidity. ATMs are probably the most harmful financing methods for retail equity.
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CRWV大跌验证看空逻辑，警示新云债务风险差异。
这条推文经得起时间考验，$CRWV 过去一个月下跌约 28%。 我觉得最好的空头其实是多头投资者或波段交易者。 如果你看到 Coreweave 或 $CRCL 在 200 美元时的危险信号，与其回避，不如反向操作。 话虽如此，$NBIS 等其他股票正随着板块被算法性打压。 我一次又一次地注意到，并非所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)都是一样的。 - 一家新云服务商可能有数十亿美元的年度债务利息，损害自由现金流(FCF) - 另一家则可能没有……
原推 ↗英文原文
This aged well, $CRWV down ~28% in the past month. I feel like the best bears would actually be long investors or swing traders. If you see red flags, with Coreweave or $CRCL at $200, can always play the other direction instead of avoiding it. That being said, $NBIS and others have been being brought down algorithmically with the sector I’ve noticed this again and again, not all Neoclouds are built the same. - One Neocloud might have billions in yearly debt interest hurting FCF - The other Neocloud might not…
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吐槽美股与亚股表现两极分化，提醒可配置两地资产。
不会只有我一个人这么觉得吧？ 我的时间线基本上是这样的： 亚洲投资者和分析师们欢呼他们的公司，如Nittobo或Seikoh Giken，每天上涨5-10%。 然后每个美国投资者都在发布$CRWV、$EOSE和$DUOL每天暴跌5-10%的亏损截图。 完全两极分化…… 你们都知道可以同时持有美国股票和亚洲股票，对吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
It can’t just be me right? My timeline is basically: Asian investors and analysts cheering on their companies like Nittobo or Seikoh Giken going up 5-10% a day. Then every US investors posting loss screenshots from $CRWV, $EOSE, and $DUOL crashing 5-10% a day. Completely binary… You all know that you can have both US equities and Asian equities right?
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深度解析$IQE：通过出售台湾业务去债，转型InP光子学产能，类比矿企转AI。
深入解析 $IQE（市值1.79亿美元）： IQE隐藏的磷化铟(InP)期权价值 vs LandMark 35亿美元的估值。以及 $IREN / $CRWV 等“矿企”向光子学(Potonics)转型的逻辑： 此前我做过一个高层级的“淋浴思考”概览，例如 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs，但这次是更深入的尽职调查(DD)。 基本上：IQE是全球最大的独立商用化合物半导体外延晶圆代工厂，按反应炉数量和物理产能计算。 然而，由于受困于低毛利的传统无线业务和短期流动性约束，其估值处于困境状态。 LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) 是最接近的对比标的。作为800G和1.6T光互连市场中AI InP需求的纯代理标的，LandMark市值约38亿美元，相比市值1.75亿美元的 $IQE 享有巨大溢价。 但如果深入看底层硬件，这种脱节非常有趣： LandMark的运营规模在物理上受限。据估计，他们在台湾单一校区仅运营约27-30台金属有机化学气相沉积(MOCVD)反应炉。 相比之下，IQE在全球拥有超过100台MOCVD和分子束外延(MBE)系统。 IQE光子学资产基础的潜在重置价值和结构性产能似乎远超其当前公开市场估值。 这有点像比特币矿企拥有3GW产能 vs 750MW产能，如果进行转换，前者有巨大的变现期权价值。 我们也看到了光模块瓶颈： -> 下游对光收发器(Optical Transceivers)的需求正在以前所未有的速度加速。 -> 来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 等的极端需求直接向上游硬件供应链传导。 这给Innolight等光模块集成商、$COHR、$LITE 和 $AVGO 等光组件制造商，以及最终为 foundational 激光芯片生长原始外延晶圆的商用外延代工厂带来了巨大压力。 由于其他玩家触及物理产能天花板，像 $COHR 这样的垂直整合玩家已满载，超大规模云厂商和模块制造商迫切需要在 $IQE 这样的玩家中寻找替代产能。 而且... 隐藏在IQE合并报表之下的是大量的 Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM 反应炉。 这些反应炉原生具备双能力(GaAs/InP)，可以以相对较低的成本（每台50万-150万美元）重新用于InP生产，但需要数月或一年时间来重构。当然，执行层面增加了资格认证和良率风险（类似于比特币矿企对GPU进行软件编排，如 $CRWV）。 但无论如何，IQE拥有类似 $IREN 或转型HPC的比特币矿企那样的产能。而LandMark证明了纯代理标的带来的估值溢价。 核心问题.. 释放被困价值： 虽然IQE的营收远高于LandMark，但由于4500万英镑的总债务，其股价（1.75亿美元市值）被定价为破产边缘。 但对超大规模云厂商来说，这笔债务微不足道： 其正在进行的由Lazard指导的战略审查的明确目标是：最终完成IQE台湾（传统GaAs无线业务）的出售，并利用所得资金彻底且永久地消除母公司的限制性债务结构。 再次强调，其可转换贷款票据面值2120万英镑，公司实收1800万英镑。净债务为2350万英镑。 -> 需要立即清除的债务负担：2350万英镑汇丰设施 + 2120万英镑CLN = 约4500万英镑。 假设IQE台湾单元以1亿至1.5亿英镑的高价出售（不保证），IQE在完全无债后将获得5000万至1亿英镑的盈余现金。 然而，射频GaAs目前并不“热门”，因此在困境资产出售中可能仅值5000万至6000万英镑，这足以清偿债务，但缓冲空间很小。 地缘政治转向： 一旦无债，IQE可以将其在北卡罗来纳州和威尔士等地大量闲置的制造产能转向数据中心InP外延晶圆市场。 这为光子学中最关键的瓶颈创造了一条完全资本化、纯西方的供应链，在美国和英国高度重视国内半导体基础设施之际，减少了对亚洲的依赖。 基本上，鉴于 $IQE 拥有的原始资产数量： -> 成功出售台湾业务将消除持续经营风险，清除所有债务，并让他们直接向Tier 1光模块玩家变现其6英寸InP外延晶圆技术。 这是一笔基于成功重组以释放被困价值的深度资产价值交易。且它已是超大规模云厂商光网络的知名供应商（并非科学实验项目）。 下行风险是过度稀释和重组失败。但鉴于其对西方供应链和超大规模云厂商供应链的地缘政治重要性，似乎有更多缓冲。 我个人决定将其作为巨大的潜在反转机会做多。但再次强调，这不适合所有人，风险极高。 TLDR： -> IQE被定价为困境中的射频供应商。 -> 它拥有真正具备光子学能力的硬件基础设施。 -> 如果4100万英镑总债务被移除，且管理层将资本支出重新分配给InP，股权可能大幅重估。 -> 重组+产能期权交易，风险极高但上行空间也极大。 最接近的类比是 $IREN 或 $CIFR 等将GW产能转向AI HPC的比特币矿企。他们拥有大量物理硬件（GW产能），需要资金进行转型（通过出售台湾业务或稀释）。 我乐观地认为他们能做到（像 $INTC 那样，鉴于其对西方的地缘政治重要性，有回旋余地）。 下行风险是极端稀释，这始终是一种可能性（意味着你的股权可能被清零以清偿债务或帮助重构）。 我只是发现4500万英镑总债务（占流通股本+债务的14.4%）并非不可承受，且管理层正试图通过资产出售而非股东稀释来清除债务。 只想发布更深入的拆解和这个非常二元化的**高风险**但潜在高回报交易更多风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M): IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics: Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD. Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity. However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints. LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC. But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating: LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates. IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally. The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation. Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it. And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too: -> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration. -> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain. This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips. And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE And.. Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors. These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV). But still, IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings. The Major Question.. Unlocking Trapped Value: While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M. But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers: The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile. Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million. -> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M. Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free. However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room. The Geopolitical Pivot: Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters. It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure. Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has: -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project). Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion. I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk. TLDR: -> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier. -> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure. -> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially. -> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside. Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution). It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West). The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor). I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders. Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.
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Robinhood用户Q4亏246亿，警示散户在熊市中难以获利。
这组数据令人震惊……Robinhood 用户在 2025 年第四季度集体亏损： - 246 亿美元。 而 X 上 Robinhood 投资组合主要由以下股票组成： $HIMS、$DUOL 和 $BMNR。 随着这些股票下跌 50-70%+，2026 年第一季度可能会更糟。 每个人都以为自己是沃伦·巴菲特，能在极端牛市中从 Duolingo、$CRWV 和 $ASST 获利。 但当市场转差时： 我们将开始看到真正的交易者和投资者，他们能够在任何市场条件下获利。
原推 ↗英文原文
This data is alarming... Robinhood users lost a collective: - $24.6 Billion USD in Q4 2025. With Robinhood portfolios on X consisting of : $HIMS, $DUOL, and $BMNR. Q1 2026 is likely to be even worse, as these names drop 50-70%+. Everyone thinks they're Warren Buffet, making profit from Duolingo, $CRWV, and $ASST in an extreme bull market. But as markets turn sour: We'll start to see the real traders and investors, who are able to profit in any market condition.
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NBIS等公司持有的GPU资产升值，构成重大投资利好。
@jng500 有趣的是，现在连关于GPU折旧的争论都不存在了。 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 持有的GPU实际上像投资品一样升值了…… 上个月H100价格上涨29%以上，A100价格上涨23%以上。 这是一个极其巨大的顺风利好。 https://t.co/2udzG1dYVW
原推 ↗英文原文
@jng500 It's funny how it wasn't even GPU depreciation arguments anymore. The GPUs $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN are sitting on have actually gone up in price like an investment... H100s went up 29%+ and A100% went up 23%+ last month. This is an incredible, incredible tailwind. https://t.co/2udzG1dYVW
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超大规模云厂商资本支出激增导致GPU供应紧张，利好新云服务商。
黄仁勋在CNBC表示：“六年前销售的GPU价格正在上涨。” GPU折旧曾是$NBIS、$IREN和$CRWV最大的担忧。 但现在，它们拥有： - 超大规模云厂商资本支出增加带来的顺风 - 全面的需求增长 - GPU折旧担忧缓解。 所有顺风同时利好新云服务商(Neoclouds)。 （引用内容：根据3Fourteen Research：2月份主要云服务的GPU可用性大幅下降。随着$META、$AMZN、$GOOGL大幅增加基础设施资本支出，主要赢家是新云服务商：$IREN、$NBIS和$CRWV是三家提供AI云服务的企业。随着Opus 4.6等新AI模型的推出，可能出现新一轮需求冲击。从B200等新一代到旧型号，需求全面增长。这是产能限制累积效应的可视化体现。）
原推 ↗英文原文
Jensen Huang on CNBC: "GPUs sold six years ago are increasing in price." GPU depreciation was the largest concern for $NBIS, $IREN, and $CRWV. But now, they have: - Tailwinds from increased capex spend across hyperscalers - Increased demand across the board - GPU depreciation fears eased. Every tailwind just hit at once for Neoclouds.
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云厂商GPU供应紧缺，Neoclouds因需求冲击受益。
根据3Fourteen Research的数据：2月份主要云服务提供商的GPU可用性大幅下降。 与此同时，$META、$AMZN和$GOOGL大幅增加了基础设施资本支出。 主要的受益者是Neoclouds（新型云服务商）： $IREN、$NBIS和$CRWV是拥有AI云服务业务的三家。 随着Opus 4.6等新AI模型的发布，很可能出现了一波新的需求冲击。 这种需求增长是全方位的，涵盖了B200等新一代芯片以及旧型号。 这是产能限制累积效应的直观体现。
原推 ↗英文原文
According to 3Fourteen Research: GPU availability across major cloud services have dropped immensely in Feb. This comes as $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL have increased infrastructure capex spend immensely. The major victors, Neoclouds: $IREN, $NBIS, and $CRWV are the three with AI cloud offerings. There's likely been a new wave of demand shock with new AI models coming out from Opus 4.6 and others. And the demand increase is across the board with newer gens like B200, and older models. This is the cumulative effect of capacity constraints, now visualized.
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Oracle因OpenAI项目面临巨大交易对手风险及盈利不确定性。
我关注 Neoclouds 已有一段时间，因此对 $ORCL 很熟悉。情况很微妙： 主要看点是资本支出(CapEx)从 350 亿美元增至 500 亿美元，以及约 2000 多亿美元的数据中心(DC)租赁。 这主要是为了“星门(Stargate)”项目，主要客户是 OpenAI，这带来了巨大的交易对手风险(counterparty risk)。 众所周知，OpenAI 拥有超过 1 万亿美元签约资本支出，但没有足够的资金来支付。因此，你在财报中看到的用于投资回报(ROI)支出的 3000 多亿美元签约收入，可能会轻易消失。 你可能认为寻找其他客户很容易，但任何利用率滞后(utilization lag)，加上资产/租赁折旧，都会造成巨大伤害。 第二部分是： -> 将其转化为高利润率业务极其困难。 你必须结合 GPU 折旧、GPU 编排（这真的很难，目前只有 Nebius、Coreweave 等少数几家公司能做好），以及其他因素，才能将收入转化为自由现金流(FCF)。 当像 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 那样承担大量债务时，这会侵蚀任何自由现金流，且你仍需偿还债务。 《信息(The Information)》在一两个月前泄露的消息称，Oracle 在其 GPU 业务板块面临大量盈利问题（如 GPU 利用率问题等）。这造成了影响。 总体而言，主要不确定性在于与 OpenAI 的交易对手风险。其核心业务强劲，但新建设施 shaky（不稳定/令人担忧）。 因此我认为，这是针对不稳定交易对手的过度资本支出，且存在该支出能否转化为自由现金流或更多亏损的疑问。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been covering Neoclouds for awhile so I'm familiar with $ORCL. It's nuanced: Main thing is CapEx -> $50B from $35B, and $200B+ or so in DC leases. This is mainly for the Stargate project, mainly for OpenAI, which presents incredible counter party risk. As you know OpenAI has $1T+ in contracted capex spend, but not enough money to pay for it. So that $300B+ in contracted revenue you see in earnings for ROI spend, could easily just disappear. You might think it's easy to just get another customer but any utilization lag, combined with asset/lease depreciation, hurts. A lot. Second part is -> It's incredibly hard to turn this into a high margin business. You have to combine GPU depreciation, GPU orchestration (which is really difficult Nebius, Coreweave are the few currently that can do this well), amid other things to turn that revenue into FCF. And when you take on a lot of debt as seen with $CRWV, and $ORCL that cuts into any FCF + you still need to pay it off. The Information leaked news a month or two ago that Oracle was facing a lot of issues with profitability on their GPU segment (GPU utilization issues, etc). So that took a toll. Overall, main uncertainty is counterparty risk with OpenAI. It's core business is strong, but new buildout is shaky. So I would argue it's excessive Capex for a shaky counterparty and questions on whether that turns into FCF or more losses.
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作者分享CRWV交易经历，指出其巨额债务偿付压力。
@Veganhippo21 我去年在 $34 买入 $CRWV，今年在 $70 做了波段交易。话虽如此，“你酸吗”这种论调无助于解决 Coreweave 每年 $12.5 亿+ 债务偿付的问题。 https://t.co/DrP4LIKpYm
原推 ↗英文原文
@Veganhippo21 I was buying $CRWV at $34 last year, and I swing traded it at $70 this year. That being said, "u mad" doesn't help Coreweave's issue with $1.25B+ yearly debt payments. https://t.co/DrP4LIKpYm
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看空CRWV因债务与折旧风险，建议多NBIS/CIFR空CRWV对冲。
$CRWV 可能是我能想到的唯一一家市值超 500 亿美元且很可能破产的公司。至少 $ORCL 拥有盈利的核心业务，并持有大量资产，例如 15% 的 TikTok 股份。 对我来说，做空 Coreweave 的理由很明确，纯粹因为其大部分收入将用于支付债务利息。再加上 GPU 折旧，情况更是雪上加霜。 但进行对冲是个好主意。我个人会做多 $NBIS、$CIFR，同时做空 $CRWV，这对长期投资来说似乎不错。Nvidia 目前仍在维持它们的生存。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRWV is probably the only $50B+ company I can think of that is likely going to go bankrupt. At least $ORCL has a profitable core business and owns tons of assets like 15% of Tiktok. Coreweave is a clear short to me purely because a large part of their revenue will be used to pay off debt interest. Then you compound that with GPU depreciation. But it's a good idea to hedge. I would personally long $NBIS, $CIFR short $CRWV, seems decent for long term. Nvidia is keeping them alive for now.
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看好NBIS和CIFR，指出Coreweave高息债务侵蚀现金流。
我认为 $NBIS 目前极具吸引力。$CIFR（指其托管业务而非新云业务）等特定个股也是如此。相比之下，$CRWV 的说服力则稍逊一筹。 Nebius 的商业模式本质上是将五家年同比增长(Y/Y)达100%的公司合并而成。（包括与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶公司 Avride、估值约150亿美元的 Clickhouse、AI 标注公司 Toloka 以及教育科技公司）。此外，还包括其核心业务部门，该部门已实现约70亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR)。 因此，尽管我们需要通过实际产生的自由现金流(FCF)来仔细审视这些乐观的收入数据，但公司方面表示长期 EBIT 利润率有望达到20%~30%。 最关键的差异在于，Coreweave 超过12亿美元的债务利息正在侵蚀其自由现金流，而其他公司则获得了2~3%的低利率融资。
原推 ↗英文原文
저는 $NBIS 가 현재 매우 매력적이라고 생각합니다. $CIFR(네오클라우드가 아닌 코로케이션 부문) 같은 특정 종목들도 마찬가지입니다. 반면 $CRWV 는 그만큼 설득력이 있지는 않네요. 네비우스(Nebius)의 비즈니스 모델은 기본적으로 전년 대비(Y/Y) 100%씩 성장하는 5개의 회사가 하나로 합쳐진 형태입니다. ($UBER와 협력하는 자율주행 Avride, 약 150억 달러의 가치로 평가받는 Clickhouse, Toloka(AI 라벨링), 그리고 에듀테크). 여기에 약 70억 달러의 ARR(연간 반복 매출)을 기록한 주력 사업 부문이 포함됩니다. 따라서 이러한 낙관적인 매출 수치들은 실제 창출되는 FCF(잉여현금흐름)를 통해 면밀히 살펴봐야 하겠지만, 사측에서는 장기적으로 20%~30%의 EBIT 마진을 제시하고 있습니다. 가장 중요한 차이점은 코어위브(Coreweave)의 경우 12억 달러 이상의 부채 이자가 FCF를 잠식하고 있는 반면, 다른 기업들은 2~3% 수준의 저금리를 확보했다는 점입니다.
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对比新型云融资结构，指出Coreweave债务风险高且英伟达损失可控。
其他如 $CIFR、$WULF 是数据中心托管(colocation)商，它们不购买 GPU。$CRWV、$NBIS、$IREN 则购买。前两家由 $NVDA 注资。后者 $IREN 由 $MSFT 通过预付款购买 GPU。大多数新型云(neoclouds)拥有极佳的融资结构，如 Nebius 的低息可转换债券。Coreweave 是唯一陷入困境的，背负巨额债务，因此若无垃圾债(junk bonds)支持，很难获得额外资金购买更多 GPU。英伟达给 Coreweave 泼了冷水，投入 Coreweave 的 20 亿美元最终仍回流至 $NVDA。如果 Coreweave 因巨额债务和贬值的 GPU 而倒闭，英伟达损失并不大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Others like $CIFR, $WULF are colo. They don't buy GPUs. $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN do. The first two $NVDA funded. The latter one, $MSFT did with prepayment for Iren to buy GPUs. Most neoclouds have great financing structures like low interest rate Nebius convertible notes. Coreweave is the only one on fire, with massive debt, so it's harder for them to secure additional funding to buy more GPUs without junk bonds. Nvidia threw a bucket of water on Coreweave and the $2B into Coreweave goes back to $NVDA anyways. Nvidia doesn't lose much if and when Coreweave goes under with just a ton of debt and depreciating GPUs.
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建议押注英伟达而非高负债的Coreweave
考虑因为 $NVDA 的交易而买入 $CRWV 吗？ 你可以这样思考： 赌场给你更多资金，因此你可以利用抵押品承担更多债务去赌博。 然后所有额外的钱都流回了赌场（即 $NVDA）。 这并不意味着 Coreweave 是一个好的做多标的。 但这确实让英伟达成为了一个。 押注庄家，而不是那个背负 147 亿美元+债务且年利息支付超过 12 亿美元的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thinking about buying $CRWV on the $NVDA deal? Here's the way to think about it: A casino gives you more money, so you could take on more debt with collateral to gamble. Then all the extra money goes back to the Casino (aka. $NVDA). That doesn't make Coreweave a good long. But it does make Nvidia one. Bet on the house, not the one with $14.7B+ in debt with $1.2B+ in yearly interest payments.
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马斯克起诉OpenAI或引发AI产业链连锁反应，市场已部分定价该风险。
突发：埃隆·马斯克起诉 OpenAI，索赔 1340 亿美元。 预测市场今日给出的马斯克胜诉概率为 59%。 这可能令人担忧。 如果 OpenAI 败诉： 市场可能会引发与 OpenAI 相关的 AI 生态系统连锁反应（Contagion）。 $AMD 或 $CRWV 以及像 $ORCL（Stargate 项目）到 $MSFT 这样的公司将是巨大的输家，因为它们严重依赖 OpenAI。 此外，还有涉及 Coreweave 的 $APLD 和 $CORZ 等公司的三阶效应（Third-order effects）。 $AMD 的合作伙伴如 $RIOT 也是如此。 例如： 1. 微软/甲骨文 -> 数十亿美元的投资减值，建设 + GPU 利用率滞后将造成数十亿美元损失 2. CoreWeave -> 积压订单收入面临巨大风险，利用率滞后 + 已因巨额债务利息而处于风险之中 3. APLD / CORZ -> 依赖 Coreweave 的收入，如果租户倒闭，其短期收入也会随之下降。 如果 OpenAI 被迫支付巨额赔偿金，回归严格的非营利地位，或因流动性危机破产（无法履行合同义务）： 这可能会触发许多与 OpenAI 相关的 AI 板块股票的连锁反应事件。 当然，这是最坏的情况。 我的预期是中间地带： -> 马斯克赢得审判（或在判决前迫使达成和解）。 -> OpenAI 被迫支付巨额罚款（例如 100 亿 -200 亿美元）并可能开源其旧模型 -> $MSFT 可能会介入支付罚款或重组债务，因为利害关系太大。 或者在马斯克 41% 的败诉概率下：无事发生，与 OpenAI 相关的公司将安然无恙。 然而，市场似乎已经通过甲骨文（$330 -> $195）和 Coreweave（$150 -> $101）的价格大幅调整，定价了 OpenAI 连锁反应风险带来的大量不确定性。 这起诉讼绝对是市场关注的最大事件之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Breaking: Elon Musk has sued OpenAI for $134 Billion. Prediction markets have priced the odds of Elon winning at 59% as of today. This may be alarming. If OpenAI loses this: Markets may trigger a contagion across the AI ecosystem tied to OpenAI. $AMD or $CRWV and companies like $ORCL (Stargate) to $MSFT are massive losers as they're heavily levered to OpenAI. Then there's third order effects on companies as $APLD and $CORZ involved to Coreweave. Same goes with $AMD partners, such as $RIOT. For example: 1. Microsoft / Oracle -> Write down billions in investment, buildout + GPU utilization lag would cost billions 2. CoreWeave -> Massive risk to backlog revenue, utilization lag + already at risk due to massive debt interest 3. APLD / CORZ -> Depend on Coreweave for revenue, if the tenant goes down, so does their near term revenue. If OpenAI are forced to pay massive damages, return to a strict non-profit status, or declare bankruptcy due to liquidity crises (and cannot fulfill its contractual obligations): This might trigger a contagion event across many AI sector names tied to OpenAI. Of course this is the worst case scenario. My expectation is middle ground: -> Musk wins the trial (or forces a settlement just before the verdict). -> OpenAI is forced to pay a massive fine (e.g., $10B–$20B) and possibly open-source its older models -> $MSFT likely steps in to pay the fine or restructure the debt since there's too much at stake. Or in the 41% chance Musk loses: nothing happens, and companies tied to OpenAI will be fine. However it looks markets already priced in a lot of that uncertainty with OpenAI contagion risk with Oracle ($330 -> $195) and Coreweave ($150 -> $101). This lawsuit is definitely one of the biggest events markets are watching.
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NBIS受ATM及CRWV影响，其他数据中心股表现良好，IREN异常。
@_visionarius $NBIS 正在运行一笔2500万股的主动式按需发行机制(ATM)，近期其表现更多与 $CRWV 的走势挂钩。其他数据中心(Colo)玩家表现良好，如 $HUT、$CIFR、$WULF。唯一的异常是 $IREN。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_visionarius $NBIS has an active 25M share ATM running and it's more tied to $CRWV's performance recently. The other colo players have been doing well, like $HUT, $CIFR, $WULF. The only anomaly is $IREN.
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软件仍复杂，但AI瓶颈已下移至材料与先进封装层。
我不同意，对于SaaS软件服务(SaaS)确实如此，但用于运行数据中心(数据中心)及其他垂直领域的软件（例如针对$CRWV和$NBIS的GPU编排(GPU Orchestration)）仍然极其复杂。不过，大多数瓶颈已下移至材料/基础设施层面，如磷化铟(InP)衬底、集成电路(IC)衬底、高端PCB材料/原料，以及更高层级的HBM和高密度互连封装(CoWoS)。
原推 ↗英文原文
I disagree, for SaaS sure, but software (eg. GPU orchestration for $CRWV, $NBIS) for running DCs to other verticals is still incredibly complex. But most bottlenecks moved down to materials/infra like InP substrates, IC substrates, high-end pcb materials/feedstock, then a level higher with HBM and CoWoS
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博主回复称多数持仓及存储股今日表现强劲，普涨。
@soulbiri1 大多数东西开局都不错，哈哈。$CRWV、$CIFR 和 $AAOI 均上涨超过 10%。$NBIS 上涨 7%，$SMCI 上涨 6%，$MRVL、$MSTR、$TSM 上涨 5%。你所有的存储(Storage)股票每天都上涨 8%。除了少数几只，到处一片绿色(上涨)。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Most things are off to a good start lol. $CRWV, $CIFR, to $AAOI both up over 10%. $NBIS up 7%, $SMCI up 6%, $MRVL, $MSTR, $TSM up 5%. All your memory stocks are up 8% every day. Green everywhere aside from a few
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
原推 ↗英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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2026年十大主题投资：聚焦AI供应链瓶颈、软体机器人及支付颠覆。
2026年通讯。 主题投资：演进、颠覆与瓶颈 1. 软体机器人 - 向 $TSLA、$ONDS、波士顿动力演进。 2. 硅光子(SiPh) - 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈 | $AXTI、$LITE、$GOOGL 3. 玻璃基板 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA、$INTC、$TSM 4. 资金流动 - 对 $V、Stripe、$BOA 的颠覆 5. AI云层级 - 瓶颈 | $NBIS、$IREN、$HUT 6. LLM网络安全 - 向 $CRWD、$CSCO、$MSFT 演进 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向 $RKLB、SpaceX、$ASTS 演进 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、$PATH Cognition 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 瓶颈 | $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA (LPU/Groq)、$AMD、$INTC _这是我对从公开信息综合及瓶颈二/三阶效应来看最感兴趣的主题投资的简要概述！_ 1. 软体机器人：向机器人的演进 传统机器人（Optimus、波士顿动力）依赖逆运动学控制刚性关节。软体机器人改变了数学模型。 我们已到达硬件（Optimus、波士顿动力、Figure）与LLM（Gemini、Grok、Opus）相遇的节点，正处于大规模商业化的开端。 通过使用受章鱼触手和人类皮肤启发的材料，机器人正从齿轮转向流体性，以处理极其精细的任务，如像人手一样处理农产品，或为 $ONDS/Andruil 无人机添加类章鱼延伸以拾取极重表面。 这种演进在于跳出思维定势思考机器人能做什么。我记得7年前曾与该领域的斯坦福博士合作，AI在多年研究后开始商业化，因此该领域也是如此。 将类生物流体性添加到刚性机器人中的可能性是无限的，这只是自然演进。 大多数可能是私人公司。 2. 硅光子 - AI基础设施的瓶颈“磷化铟(InP)卡脖子点” 从Blackwell Ultra集群到Google TPU已触及上限，需要光子互连 | 共封装光学(OCS)以实现扩展。 基板：$AXTI（通过Tongmei）和住友（日本）控制全球约60-70%的InP基板市场。 材料：Vital Materials（中国）和AXT等公司控制原材料铟本身的精炼（78%+的供应链）。 如果你是美国科技巨头，你2026年的整个“AI增长故事”取决于由地缘政治对手控制的材料。 唯一可扩展的解决方案是工程绕行，要么实现芯片上光传输，同时减少90%的铟使用，要么使用微小的磷化铟薄片代替大型昂贵晶圆。 瓶颈本身有机会，如AXT、住友。或帮助解决它的公司如 $POET。 3. 玻璃基板 - 解决从 $NVDA 到其他公司的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈 向玻璃基板的转变本质上是半导体行业对当前材料物理极限的回答。 当前芯片位于有机材料（本质上是专用塑料）制成的基板上。随着芯片变大，如Nvidia巨大的GPU封装，塑料基板会翘曲。 因此，玻璃基板正成为共封装光学(CPO)的行业标准，因为它们解决了光子学中最大的对齐问题。 美国政府已视其为必要，我们看到巨额补贴流向这些公司。 $INTC、三星电子、Absolics（SKC子公司）、DNP等是主要受益者，尤其是随着MRVL和 $AVGO（推动光学开关的玻璃）推进CPO革命。 4. 资金流动 - 对卡网络、银行、交易所和支付的颠覆 几十年来，资金转移一直是“收费公路”业务。每次刷卡，2%到3%的钱流入卡网络（Visa/Mastercard）和发卡行的口袋。 或者从交易所买卖加密货币是0.2-1%。这是历史上最有利可图、“不可杀死”的商业模式。 直到现在。2025年的“天才法案”刚刚将金钱传输许可证或银行特许状交给像 $XRP 这样的公司，赋予了他们王国钥匙。 对我来说并非理论。我恰好正在自己的初创公司与创建V / $PYPL 实时支付网络的人一起从事这项工作。 但基本上，拥有现有MTL或追求银行特许状并利用天才法案及其他技术的公司，现在可以通过在美联储和区块链之上进行结算来绕过传统百分比费用，有效地将基于百分比的费用转化为几美分。 99%的公司会这样做吗？可能不会，因为支付行业的所有利润率都将归零。但我乐意看到。 但基本上，Stripe以11亿美元收购Bridge本应是对现有公司的红色警报，表明1天ACH、 interchange模式、25美元国际转账的日子即将结束。 这扩展到许多其他相邻领域，从低费用颠覆者如 $HOOD、Mercury，一直到稳定币新银行，或制作自己稳定币的公司如 $SOFI。 5. AI云层级 - 超大规模计算瓶颈的解决方案 当超大规模云厂商被困在3-5年的电网互连队列中时，像WULF和IREN这样的矿工今天就拥有即插即用的GW级算力。 这是千载难逢的机会，超大规模云厂商将其现金牛云收入流向小公司。 这里有不同的层级，从Fluidstack、Poolside、Fireworks在GPU编排层，到IREN等公司构建的裸金属层。 然后有成为超大规模云厂商本身，如NBIS拥有物理位置、GPU、软件编排，然后为推理提供简单接口。 这是少数小公司在未来一两年成为AWS或Azure，或被收购（例如GOOGL以47亿美元收购Intersect）的机会。 像NBIS、IREN、CRWV这样的新云，以及像CIFR、WULF、HUT这样的colo玩家（以及私人部门->能源）将受益。 6. LLM网络安全 - 向现代安全和漏洞防御的演进 最近的报告（例如来自Anthropic红队）显示，高级模型如Opus（及未来版本）可以自主扫描开源智能合约，并在几分钟内识别价值数百万美元的“零日”漏洞。 含义：如果AI能在不可变的区块链合约中找到逻辑缺陷，它也能在银行的SWIFT API或电网控制软件中找到缺陷。 同样适用于KYC/AML。像Gemini Nano Banana这样的模型能够创建逼真的图像/视频，人们能够绕过许多程序。 这个领域有很多不性感但具Alpha潜力的事情，如LLM自动化SOC2/PCI DSS合规，代理坐在服务器上，持续监控日志，并自动生成审计所需的证据。 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向拓展最后疆域的演进 太空是下一个大事情。这并不新鲜。（希望你懂这个笑话）。但从像 $RKLB、SpaceX这样的公司，到解决轨道拥堵或发射节奏瓶颈的公司，再到像ASTS或Starlink这样商业化基础设施的公司，在未来一年呈现许多机会。 因此，像Impulse、Blue Origin、$ASOZF到RKLB、$ASTS这样的公司将受益于整个链条。 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、PATH Cognition 这一点很简单，无需解释。但在对就业+成本节约的潜在影响上显而易见。 你如何自动化商务拓展？如何自动化营销？如何自动化软件工程师？ 这超越了ChatGPT的几步回答，直接进入现实世界，AI代理可以在X上漫游，找到合适的人，发送DM，继续对话，并在一个工作流中导致销售电话。 这是“聊天机器人”时代的结束和“行动”时代的开始，取代公司以前需要的所有人。 我尚未看到任何公司大规模做到这一点。拥有这些的公共公司如META并没有呈现最佳敞口。也许是 $PATH 在公共空间。 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 解决AI计算容量紧张的瓶颈 像GOOGL Cloud、MSFT Azure这样的超大规模云厂商已达最大容量。 Elon Musk已经提出分布式计算作为解决此问题的未来（例如，拥有 $TSLA 网络为LLM推理提供计算）。 “Tesla计算云”论点很迷人，但我识别出的最大物理障碍是：推理延迟。 要生成“Token B”，模型必须先生成“Token A”。它不能同时做两者。如果你将一个巨大模型（如Grok-3）拆分到5辆不同的汽车中以适应内存，你必须为每个生成的Token在这些汽车之间发送数据。 因此，如果汽车之间的网络延迟甚至是20ms（5G的乐观估计），而你生成50个Token，你刚刚在计算时间之上添加了1秒的纯“等待时间”（延迟）。在使用NVLink的数据中心中，该等待时间以纳秒计。 同样适用于零售用户拥有的任何备用计算机、GPU等。有数十亿消费级GPU（Teslas、iPhones、游戏PC）90%的时间闲置。 解决推理的“分布式延迟”问题呈现了计算史上最大的套利机会之一。 尚未看到任何公司大规模完成此任务。也许NVIDIA Dynamo、$AKAM、TSLA正在接近。 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 解决Nvidia和其他公司的瓶颈 既然我们不能拥有无限的InP，我们必须用现有的东西（例如铜）进行工程绕行，所以铜电缆可以做物理上说它不应该做的事，如在不损失信号的情况下跨机架传输224G信号。 行业在InP上遇到了硬性停止，美国在物理上无法开采和精炼足够的InP将数据中心中的每个链接变成光纤。 如果有任何帮助，那就是好事。例如，NVDA对Groq团队和IP的200亿美元“收购雇佣”。LPU更多是关于推理延迟/架构，但它作为副产品解决了铜寿命延长。Groq的整个架构在延迟上击败了Nvidia，因为它拒绝了光学。Groq使用“确定性”网格，依赖芯片之间的直接电气（铜）连接，避免光学开关的“抖动”和转换时间。 像 $ALAB、$CRDO、Groq，或任何能找到用铜绕过光学瓶颈方法的公司将是赢家。 _这里有从私人部门投资到公共部门的众多交易！只是今天即兴写下了我的想法，但乐意稍后详细阐述。 无论如何，我相信这些主题投资中的许多： 从投资InQ瓶颈绕行（$POET）或瓶颈本身（$AXTI）到公共部门的颠覆者（$CRCL）。 到投资铜扩展瓶颈修复（Groq）、银行特许状颠覆者（Mercury）到私人部门的演进公司（Lightmatter、Festo）。 在2026年呈现不对称上行空间。 新年快乐！
原推 ↗英文原文
2026 Newsletter. Thematic Investments: Evolution, Disruption, and Bottlenecks 1. Soft Robotics - Evolution to $TSLA, $ONDS, Boston Dynamics. 2. SiPh - InP Bottleneck | $AXTI, $LITE, $GOOGL 3. Glass Substrates - Bottleneck | $NVDA, $INTC, $TSM 4. Money Movement - Disruption to $V, Stripe, $BOA 5. AI Cloud Layers - Bottleneck | $NBIS, $IREN, $HUT. 6. LLM Cybersecuirty - Evolution to $CRWD, $CSCO, $MSFT 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | Evolution to $RKLB, SpaceX, $ASTS 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, $PATH Cognition 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Bottleneck | $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Bottleneck | $NVDA (LPU/Groq), $AMD, $INTC _ This is an light overview of thematic investments I find the most interesting from a public-information synthesis perspective + second/third-order effects from bottlenecks! _ 1. Soft Robotics: The Evolution to Robotics Traditional robotics (Optimus, Boston Dynamics) relies on Inverse Kinematics to rigid joints. Soft robotics changes the math. We've met the point where hardware (Optimus, Boston Dynamics, Figure) met LLMs (Gemini, Grok, Opus), and we're at the beginning of possible widespread commercialization. By using materials inspired by octopus tentacles and human skin, robots are moving away from gears and toward fluidity to handle extremely delicate tasks like handling produce like the human hand, to picking up extremely heavy surfaces adding Octopus-like extensions to $ONDS/Andruil Drones. The evolution is thinking outside the box in terms of what robotics can do. I remember working with some Stanford PHds in this field like 7 years ago, and it just so happens AI is starting to be commercialized after many years of research. So expected, this field to be as well. Possibilities are limitless adding organism-like fluidity to rigid robotics, this is just the natural evolution. Most of these are prob private companies. _ 2. Silicon Photonics - Bottleneck of the AI Infrastructure "InP Chokepoint" Blackwell Ultra Clusters to Google TPUs have hit the upper wall and requires photonics for interconnects | OCS to scale up. The Substrates: $AXTI (via Tongmei) and Sumitomo (Japan) control roughly 60-70% of the world's InP substrate market. The Materials: Companies like Vital Materials (China) and AXT control the refining of the raw Indium itself (78%+ of supply chain). If you are a US tech giant, your entire "AI Growth Story" for 2026 depends on materials controlled by geopolitical rivals. The only scalable solution is engineering around it, either by delivering light-on-chip, while using 90% less InP or companies that use tiny slivers of Indium Phosphide instead of large, expensive wafers. There's opportunities with the bottleneck itself like AXT, Sumitomo. Or companies that help address it like $POET. _ 3. Glass Substrates - Fixing the Bottleneck for CPOs from $NVDA to others. The shift toward glass substrates is essentially the semiconductor industry’s answer to a physical wall they are hitting with current materials. Current chips sit on a substrate made of organic materials (essentially specialized plastic). As chips get larger, like Nvidia's massive GPU packages, plastic substrates warps. So, glass substrates is becoming the industry standard for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) because they solve the single biggest problem in photonics with alignment. US Government already sees this as a necessity and we've seen huge subsidies funneling down to some of these companies. Companies like $INTC, Samsung Electronics, Absolics (SKC Subsidiary), DNP, and others are the main beneficiaries, especially as MRVL and $AVGO (driving glass for optical switches) move forward with CPO revolution. _ 4. Money Movement - The Disruption to Card Networks, Banking, Exchange, and Payments For decades, moving money has been a "toll road" business. Every time you swiped a card, 2% to 3% of that money vanished into the pockets of the Card Networks (Visa/Mastercard) and Issuing Banks. Or buying/selling crypto from an exchange would be .2-1%. It was the most profitable, "un-killable" business model in history. Until now. The "Genius Act" of 2025 just handed companies like $XRP with Money Transmitter Licenses or Banking Charters the keys to the kingdom. Not really theoretical for me. I happen to be working on this myself at my own startup with some folks who created V / $PYPL's real-time payment networks. But basically companies with existing MTLs or pursuing banking charters leveraging the Genius Act and some other tech can now bypass legacy % fees by doing settlement on top of the Federal Reserve and blockchains, effectively converting percentage-based fees into a few cents. Would 99% companies do it? Probably not since every single margin from across the payment industry would just go to 0. I'd be happy though. But basically Bridge's $1.1B acquisition by Stripe should have been a red-alarm to existing companies that days of 1-Day ACH, interchange models, $25 international transfers, are soon to be over. This extends to many other adjacents from low fee disruptions like $HOOD, Mercury all the way to Stablecoin Neobanks, or companies making their own stablecoins like $SOFI. _ 5. AI Cloud Layers - The Solution to HyperScaler compute Bottleneck While Hyperscalers are stuck in 3-5 year grid interconnection queues, miners like WULF and IREN are sitting on plug-ready GWs today This is the opportunity of a lifetime as hyperscaler funnel their cash cow Cloud revenues down to tiny companies. There's many different layers to this from Fluidstack, Poolside, Fireworks on the GPU orchestration layer, to the bare metal layer that companies like IREN are building. Then there's becoming the hyperscaler themselves like NBIS owning the physical locations, the GPU, software orchestration, and then providing simple interfaces for inference. This is the opportunity for a few small companies to become Amazon Web Service or Microsoft Azure over the next year or two, or get acquired (eg. GOOGL buying Intersect for $4.7B) Neoclouds like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, down to colo plays like CIFR, WULF, HUT (and private sectors -> Energy) stand to benefit. _ 6. LLM Cybersecurity - The Evolution to Modern Security and Vulnerability Defense Recent reports (e.g., from Anthropic's Red Team) showed that advanced models like Opus (and future iterations) could autonomously scan open-source smart contracts and identify "Zero-Day" exploits worth millions of dollars in minutes. The Implication: If an AI can find a logic flaw in a immutable Blockchain contract, it can find a flaw in a bank's SWIFT API or a power grid's control software. Same with KYC/AML. Models like Gemini Nano Banana are able to create realistic images/videos of people and people are able to get past a lot of programs. There's tons of things as an unsexy alpha in this field like LLMs automating away SOC2/PCI dss compliance to agents sitting on a server, continuously monitor logs, and auto-generate the evidence needed for auditors. 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | The Evolution to Expanding into the final frontier. Space is the next big thing. This is not anything new. (hope you got the joke). But anywhere from companies like $RKLB, SpaceX. Companies that fix orbital congestion or launch cadence bottlenecks. To companies that commercialize the infrastructure like ASTS or Starlink present many opportunities over the next year. So companies like Impulse, Blue Origin, $ASOZF to RKLB, $ASTS stand to benefit across the entire chain. 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, PATH Cognition This one is simple and needs no explanation. But largely obvious in potential impact on employment + cost saving. How do you automate away business development? How do you automate away marketing? How do you automate away software engineers? This is going past few step ChatGPT answers and directly in to the real world where an AI agent can roam X, find the right people, DM someone, continue conversations, and lead to a sales call in just one workflow. This is the end of the "Chatbot" era and the beginning of the "Action" era replacing everyone previously required in a company. I haven't quite seen this done at scale yet with any company. Public companies like META that own these, don't really present the best exposure. Maybe $PATH for public space. 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Fixing the Bottleneck for AI Compute Capacity Strains Hyperscalers like GOOGL Cloud, MSFT Azure at max capacity. Elon Musk already floated distributed computing as the future of solving this issue (eg. having networks of $TSLA's providing compute for LLMs for inference). The "Tesla Compute Cloud" thesis is fascinating, but the single biggest physical barrier I've identified is: Inference Latency. Too generate "Token B," the model must first finish generating "Token A." It cannot do both at the same time. If you split a massive model (like Grok-3) across 5 different cars to fit it in memory, you have to send data between those cars for every single token generated. So, if your network latency between cars is even 20ms (optimistic for 5G), and you are generating 50 tokens, you just added 1 full second of pure "waiting time" (latency) on top of the compute time. In a data center using NVLink, that wait time is measured in nanoseconds. Same applies to any spare computer, GPU, and others owned by retail users. And there's billions of consumer GPUs (Teslas, iPhones, Gaming PCs) that sit idle 90% of the time. Solving the "distributed latency" problem for inference presents one of the single greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of computing. Haven't really seen any companies that accomplished this at scale yet. Maybe NVIDIA Dynamo, $AKAM, TSLA, getting a little closer. 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Addressing the Bottlenecks of Nvidia and Others Since we can't have infinite InP, we have to engineer around it with what we have (eg. Copper), so copper cables can do things that physics said it shouldnt like carrying 224G signals across a rack without signal loss. The industry is hitting a hard stop on InP where, US cannot physically cannot mine and refine enough InP to turn every link in a data center into fiber optics. If anything helps, then it's good. EG. NVDA's $20B "Acqui-hire" of Groq's team and IP. LPU is more about inference latency/architecture but it addresses copper life extension as a byproduct. Groq’s entire architecture beat Nvidia on latency because it rejected optics. Groq uses a "deterministic" mesh that relies on direct electrical (copper) connections between chips, avoiding the "jitter" and conversion time of optical switches. Companies like $ALAB, $CRDO, Groq, or anyone who can find ways to engineer around the optical bottleneck with copper will be a winner. _ There are tons of trades from both private sector investments to public! Just wrote up my thoughts on the fly today, but happy to elaborate later. Regardless I believe a lot of these thematic investments from: Investing in InQ Bottleneck Workarounds ( $POET ) or the bottleneck itself ( $AXTI ) to Disruptors ( $CRCL ) in the public sector. To Investing in copper extension bottleneck fixes (Groq), bank charter disruptors (Mercury) to evolutionary companies (Lightmatter, Festo) in the private sector. Present asymmetrical upside in 2026. Happy New Year!
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NBIS波动极大，但看好其2026年跑赢大盘并扭转趋势。
$NBIS 目前基本上是一家由 5 家不同公司组成的实体，也是整个市场中波动率（Beta）最高的股票之一。 不过其波动性极大。其同行如 $CRWV 前阵子单日涨幅曾达 24%。 Nebius 在最初达成 $MSFT 交易时单日也曾上涨 40%。且在两周内经历了 100->140->100 的完整轮回。所以波动性极强，绝对不适合心脏脆弱者。 抛开这点，我对 Nebius 在 2026 年跑赢大盘并扭转当前趋势极具信心。这基本上等同于投资一家 FSD 级别的 L4 级自动驾驶出租车公司、一家几乎被所有财富 500 强使用的数据库，以及其他同比增长三位数并将更多利润反哺核心业务的业务板块。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is basically 5 different companies in 1 at this point and one of the most high-beta stocks in the entire market. Extremely volatile though. It's peers like $CRWV went up 24% in a day the other week off. Nebius also went up 40% in a day on the initial $MSFT deal. And round tripped 100->140 -> 100 all in the span of two weeks. So just extremely volatile and definitely not a stock for the faint of heart. That aside I'm extremely confident in Nebius outperforming in 2026 and reversing current trends. It's basically investing in a FSD-level 4 Robotaxi company, a DB that almost every fortune 500 company uses, and other moving parts growing triple digits Y/Y that derive more profit to the core business.
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InP涨价对集群成本影响微，长期担忧超大规模云服务商转向定制ASIC。
好问题！关于 $CRWV、$NBIS 和 $IREN，我尚未对 B300 集群进行物料清单(BOM)分析，但光网络(Optical Networking)资本支出占比可能在 10-20% 左右。 我记得做过测算，即使磷化铟(InP)价格上涨 30 倍，集群价格仅边际增加 3%，这对 Google 来说微不足道，仅对内部收益率(IRR)造成极微小的影响。 话虽如此，我不确定 InP 成本是仅边际增加，还是因总可寻址市场(TAM)极小且突然用于 AI 导致供应受限而上涨 50 倍。 总之，短中期影响甚微。长期我更担心超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)转向定制 ASIC 并将英伟达作为过渡期。 我们需要观察 Neoclouds 是否能在拥有极大杠杆的 2-3 年窗口期内，基本转变为超大规模云服务商。
原推 ↗英文原文
Good question! As for $CRWV, $NBIS, and $IREN, I haven’t done a BOM on B300 clusters, but optical networking is probably around 10-20% of capex. I remember doing calculations and increasing InP prices by 30 times would only create a 3% marginal increase on cluster prices, which is extremely negligible to Google but hurts IRR just a tiny tiny bit. That being said I don’t know if InP costs just marginally increases or it goes up 50 times because it’s incredibly low TAM and suddenly it’s used for AI/supply constrained. So basically little effect short-medium term. Longer term I’d be more worried about hyperscaler shift to custom ASICs and using nvidia as a transition period. We’d need to see if Neoclouds can basically become hyperscalers themselves in the 2-3 year window where they have extreme leverage
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OpenAI 高估值融资改善 AI 数据中心与供应链风险偏好
最新消息：OpenAI 在完成 5000 亿美元估值、100 亿美元以上的 Amazon 轮融资后，正在以 7500 亿美元估值继续融资。 $CRWV：+15.85% $NBIS：+10.28% 有了这笔交易，像 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 这样的公司，在为 OpenAI 的资本开支需求建设容量时，对手方风险在结构上降低了，因为 OpenAI 的资产负债表更强了。 像 Nebius 这种算法上和行业龙头绑定的公司，也因此上涨。 从 Rocket Lab 到 Bitcoin，高 beta 资产普遍上涨。 最近因为日元套息交易解除，加上今天大量未平仓合约到期，市场出现了极端波动。 不过，AI 交易的基本面（尤其是 Micron 神级财报显示了极强内存需求）以及 Neocloud 的基本面，仍然比以往更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Latest news: OpenAI is raising funds at a $750B valuation after their $10B+ Amazon round at $500B. $CRWV: +15.85% $NBIS: +10.28% With this deal, companies like Coreweave and Oracle structurally have less counterparty risk with OpenAI's stronger balance sheet to fund capex requirements. Companies like Nebius that are algorithmically tied to the sector leaders are up as a result. High-Beta Assets from Rocketlab to Bitcoin are up across the board. There was extreme volatility recently with the Yen carry trade unwinding + large open interest expiring today. However, the fundamentals of the AI trade (especially with Micron's godlike ER showing extreme memory demand), and Neoclouds remain better than ever.
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Amazon 投资 OpenAI 对 AI 数据中心和 ASIC 供应链的连锁影响
最新：Amazon 的 100 亿美元 OpenAI 融资，以及 AI 供应链的涟漪效应。 $AMZN 将以 5000 亿美元以上估值向 OpenAI 投资 100 亿美元以上。 为什么这是 AI 股票的重大结构性变化： 1. AI 数据中心交易去风险：（$ORCL、$CRWV、$APLD、$CORZ） 结合前面提到的 SPEED 法案，影响 Neocloud 的主要问题是： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED 法案直接处理了第 1 和第 2 点，但没有处理 OpenAI 相关的第 3 点。 影响 Oracle、CoreWeave 等最大 Neocloud/数据中心提供商的主要担忧，是它们为 OpenAI 这个对手方投入了巨额 capex，而 OpenAI 本身没有足够资金承诺这些资本开支。 但现在，随着 Amazon 新融资，第 3 点开始被解决。 - 新增 100 亿美元资金，加上 Amazon 的资产负债表支持 ChatGPT 的创造者，OpenAI 对 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 的早期承诺开始获得兜底。 - 下游影响：这直接降低了 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 的风险，因为它们在为 OpenAI 建设容量。再往下两层，依赖 CoreWeave 作为租户的 $APLD 或 $CORZ 也会被去风险。 由于 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 被视为“行业龙头”，这会立刻改变整个 Neocloud 板块的情绪，包括 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF 等。 2. Hyperscaler AI capex 浪潮（$AMZN、$MRVL、Alchip）： 我们之前看到，$AVGO ASIC backlog 之后，市场开始担心 hyperscaler 支出减弱，很多相关玩家因此大跌。 但这笔交易的关键条件之一，是 OpenAI 采用 Amazon 自研 Trainium ASIC。这代表非 Nvidia 集群会激进扩张。 - 设计与 IP：直接利好 Marvell（$MRVL）和 Alchip 等 ASIC 设计伙伴。 - 定制硅集群需要大量光互连和 HBM。这会为光子（$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR）和内存（$MU、SK 海力士）创造新的 capex 超级周期。 - 代工厂，比如 $TSM。 以及更多参与 hyperscaler ASIC 建设的相关公司。 唯一输家？Nvidia（$NVDA）。 Amazon 正在成功用它庞大的资产负债表，迫使领先 LLM 摆脱对 H100/Blackwell 的依赖，同时推动整条 AI 供应链。 核心结论是，AI 交易由世界上最富有的公司资助，比如 $AMZN；OpenAI 也正在证明，它可以通过出让股权来扩大资产负债表，以满足需求。 做多 AI 板块。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect. $AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks: 1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ ) With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, the main issues affecting Neoclouds were: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. the Speed bill directly addresses #1 and #2. But not #3 with OpenAI. The main fears affecting the biggest Neocloud/Datanceter providers like Oracle, Coreweave was their immense capex spend for a counterparty (OpenAI) that doesn't have the funding to commit to it's capex spend. But now, #3 is starting to be addressed with the new Amazon funding. - With a fresh $10 Billion and Amazon’s balance sheet backing the creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI's early commitments to Oracle and CoreWeave are now starting to be backstopped. - Downstream Impact: This directly derisks companies like $CRWV and $ORCL, who are building capacity for OpenAI. And by two hops, companies like $APLD or $CORZ that rely on Coreweave as a tenant. As Coreweave and Oracle are seen as the "sector leaders" this immediately changes sentiment across the whole Neocloud sector from $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and others as well. 2. The HyperScaler AI capex wave ( $AMZN, $MRVL, Alchip): We've seen fears after $AVGO ASIC backlog about hyperscaler spending waning. And many related players tanked on the news. However, a key condition of this deal is OpenAI’s adoption of Amazon’s proprietary Trainium ASICs. This signals an aggressive scaling of non-Nvidia clusters. - Design & IP: Direct benefit to ASIC design partners like Marvell ( $MRVL ) and Alchip. - Custom silicon clusters require massive optical interconnects and HBM. This creates a new capex supercycle for photonics ( $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR ) and memory ( $MU, SK Hynix). - Foundries such as $TSM. and many more related companies involved in the buildout of hyperscaler ASICs. The only loser? Nvidia ( $NVDA ). Amazon is successfully using its massive balance sheet to force the leading LLM to diversify away from H100/Blackwell dependence and boosting the whole AI supply chain alongside it. The main takeaway is that the AI trade is funded by the richest companies in the world, such as $AMZN, and OpenAI is showing it can scale up its balance sheet to meet requirements by trading off equity. Go long on the AI sector.
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日文说明 AI 数据中心仍有风险，但法案能缓解能源和许可瓶颈
正如你所说，AI 数据中心行业仍然存在信用收紧和物理约束等担忧。这个法案并不能解决所有问题。 但是，它仍然是这个板块最大的顺风之一，因为它能缓解能源供应和许可流程方面的瓶颈。这样一来，从建设到变现的时间风险会显著降低，$CRWV 等公司此前作为下调指引原因提到的“递延收入”确认也会加快。 我个人认为，这个法案比三次降息还要利多。因为相比利率下降，更重要的是能把庞大的资本开支（CapEx）更快转化为自由现金流（FCF）。
原推 ↗英文原文
おっしゃる通り、AIデータセンター業界には信用の引き締め（クレジットタイトニング）や物理的な制約といった懸念材料が依然として存在します。この法案ですべての問題が解決するわけではありません。 しかし、エネルギー供給と許認可プロセスのボトルネックを解消するという点で、このセクターにとって最大級の追い風であることに変わりはありません。これにより、収益化（マネタイズ）までの期間に伴うリスクが大幅に低減され $CRWV などがガイダンス下方修正の要因として挙げていた「繰延収益」の計上も加速することになります。 個人的には、この法案は3回分の利下げよりもポジティブだと考えています。なぜなら、金利低下以上に、膨大な設備投資（CapEx）をより迅速にフリーキャッシュフロー（FCF）へと転換できることの方が重要だからです。
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认为 SPEED Act 缩短利用率滞后，比降息更直接改善 FCF
不同意。和 75 个基点降息相比，利用率滞后造成的是利润率破坏。 降息当然是巨大顺风，因为 Neocloud 需要用债务来资助扩张。 但如果美国政府通过 SPEED Act，把 $ORCL 或 $CRWV 的资本开支转化为收入的速度提前几周，甚至提前一个季度，尤其是在资产快速折旧的情况下，这对 FCF 的影响根本不是一个量级。 如果法案通过，这会让资本开支投资 thesis 更加可行。
原推 ↗英文原文
Disagree, utilization lag is margin destruction compared to .75 bps rate cut. Rate cuts are a massive tailwind given how Neoclouds debt to fund expansion. But, when the US gov guarantees faster revenue conversion on $ORCL or $CRWV on capex spend with the Speed act by a few weeks or even a quarter, especially when assets are depreciating rapidly, it’s not even a comparison for the difference in fcf. This made the capex investment thesis even more viable if the bill passes.
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解释 SPEED Act 为什么比三次降息更利好数据中心链条
谢谢！之前也有一些帖子提到 SPEED Act 通过，以及“利好 $NBIS 和 $CIFR”，这很有帮助。 但我只是想拆解“为什么”，因为数据中心板块极其复杂，而且互相连接很深。 SPEED Act 通过比三次降息还好，因为在看利用率拖累、时间敏感的折旧成本，以及利润率如何影响 $ORCL 和 $CRWV 这类公司时，延迟可能是盈利能力面临的最大单一问题之一。 对于 CoreWeave 这样的直接受益者来说，这项法案会降低关于延迟和“不可持续 capex”的空头 thesis 风险。$APLD 和 $CORZ 这类下游公司，也会因为对手方风险降低而改善。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! There were some other posts about the Speed act passing and “bullish for $NBIS and $CIFR”, which is helpful. But I just wanted to break down “why” since the DC sector is EXCEPTIONALLY nuanced and interconnected. Speed act passing is better than 3x rate cut, since delays are probably one of single biggest issue for probability whe we look at utilization drag, time sensitive depreciation costs, and margins affecting companies like $ORCL and $CRWV. Bear case thesis with delays and “unsustainable capex” gets derisked with this act on direct beneficiaries like Coreweave. And companies downstream from $APLD and $CORZ improve as well from lower counterparty risk.
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长文拆解 SPEED Act 对 Neocloud 和 AI 数据中心的去风险作用
刚刚，SPEED Act 在众议院取得进展。 这是今年 Neocloud 板块（$NBIS、$CRWV、$IREN）最大的单一去风险法案/事件。 下面是原因和梳理： 美国政府正准备以美国对中国的国家安全为理由，支持从 Oracle 到 Nebius 的 AI 数据中心建设。 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 最近跌了 40%+（也把 $NBIS 从 140 美元打到 79 美元、$IREN 从 80 美元打到 35 美元、$CIFR 从 24 美元打到 14 美元），核心恐惧有三点： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED Act 和美国政府干预，修复了数据中心建设延迟的空头论点，也解决了利用率滞后带来的盈利问题（利润率）。 #1 数据中心延迟和递延收入 空头 thesis：多年许可延迟（NEPA、输电）把高价值合同变成了递延收入风险。$CRWV 明确把供应商延迟作为下调指引的原因，并在财报后大跌，因为相当一部分收入被推迟到 2026 年 Q1/Q2。 如果 SPEED Act 通过，alpha 在这里： 强制速度和诉讼保护。 - SPEED Act 要求联邦环境和监管审查遵守严格且不可协商的截止日期，通常是 1-2 年。 - 诉讼保护：该法案大幅缩短针对已批准许可提起诉讼的时效，比如缩到 150 天，并指示法院即使许可被临时挑战，也要允许数据中心建设继续推进。 结果：从签约到“GPU 上架 -> 收入流入”的时间线，被压缩了，并由联邦政府在政治上去风险。 递延收入被提前确认，修复了 $CRWV、$APLD 和 Neocloud 板块此前面临的延迟、递延利润/收入问题。 #2 不可持续 CapEx -> 无法从资产变现出 FCF 空头 thesis：公司在 GPU 和建设上花费数十亿美元（$ORCL 的 capex 很巨大），但从购买 GPU 到变现之间的利用率拖累严重影响盈利能力和 FCF。 这也大幅影响 AI Cloud 供应商，因为它们缺乏足够电力来把 GPU/capex 变现。 公司因此面临巨大的减记风险，也就是利用率拖累：GPU 闲置时，折旧和通电成本的时钟仍在跑。 这个拖累对数据中心部门盈利能力影响巨大，The Information 关于 $ORCL AI 利润率极薄的报道也提到过这一点。 SPEED Act 和美国政府干预会直接降低 CapEx 风险，因为速度上的立法要求（修复点 #1）实际上保证电力基础设施会在一个确定且较短的时间线内到位。 这种确定性让 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 可以更有信心安排数十亿美元 GPU 的采购和部署，知道资产到货后就能立即开始变现，同时也通过降低利用率拖累来加快 FCF。 这种结构性变化会流向整个行业。它会立即降低主要 AI Cloud 供应商（$AMZN、$MSFT、$ORCL）的风险，因为它们现在能更确定地保证产能；同时也会保证 Colo/Infra/Energy 提供商（$CIFR、$WULF 等）的需求，因为它们的核心业务就是提供电力容量。 关于 capex -> FCF 以及建设延迟时间线的空头论点，现在已经被 SPEED Act 直接处理。 现在美国政府准备加速 $NBIS、$CRWV 和 $IREN 这类公司，因为 AI 数据中心已经被放到美国和中国 AI 国家安全竞争的前线。 它能否在众议院通过，是每个投资者都该关注的事。但如果通过，这会是 Neocloud / AI 数据中心建设里最大的、尚未被充分讨论的顺风之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just now, the SPEED Act ADVANCES in the House. This is the single biggest de-risking bill/event for the Neocloud sector ( $NBIS, $CRWV, $IREN) this year. Here's why and a rundown: The U.S. GOVERNMENT is set to support the AI data center buildout from Oracle down to Nebius on national security grounds for US vs China. Oracle and CoreWeave recently dropped 40%+ (tanking $NBIS $140 -> $79, $IREN $80 -> 35, $CIFR, $24 -> $14 as well) on three core fears: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. The Speed Act and US Government intervention fixes bear-case points for data center buildout delays and addresses utilization lag profitability issues (margins). #1 DC Delays & Deferred Revenue Bear Thesis: Multi-year permitting delays (NEPA, transmission) turned high-value contracts into deferred revenue risk. $CRWV explicitly cited vendor delays for lowering guidance and tanked on earnings shifting a large portion of revenue to from Q1 Q2 2026. The alpha if the Speed Act passes: Mandatory Speed and Litigation Shields. - The Speed Act mandates strict, non-negotiable deadlines (often 1-2 years) for federal environmental and regulatory reviews. - The Litigation Shield: The bill drastically shortens the statute of limitations for filing lawsuits against approved permits (e.g., to 150 days) and instructs courts to allow DC buildout to continue even if a permit is temporarily challenged). The Result: The timeline from contract signing to "GPUs on racks -> revenue flowing" is now compressed and politically de-risked by the Federal Government. Deferred revenue is pulled forward and fixes delays and deferred profitability/revenue that plagued $CRWV, $APLD, and the Neocloud sector. #2: Unsustainable CapEx -> No FCF from monetizing the assets Bear Thesis: Companies were spending billions on GPUs and construction ( $ORCL's capex is massive) with utilization drag (from the point of purchasing the GPUs to monetization) largely affecting profitability and FCF. This also largely affects AI Cloud vendors (lacking power to turn monetize the GPUs/capex). Again This forced companies to take a massive write-down risk due to Utilization Drag (the time the GPU sits idle while the clock runs on depreciation/power-up). This drag is HUGE for profitability on DC segments, as cited in The Information reports on $ORCL's razor-thin AI margins. The SPEED Act and the US Government intervention directly de-risks CapEx as the legislative mandate for speed (Fix #1) effectively guarantees that power infrastructure will arrive within a defined, short timeline. This certainty allows $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN to time the purchase and deployment of billions in GPUs with high confidence that the assets will begin monetizing immediately upon arrival as well as accelerates FCF from reducing utilization drags. This structural change flows down the entire industry. It instantly de-risks the major AI Cloud vendors ($AMZN, $MSFT, $ORCL) who can now guarantee their capacity, and it guarantees demand for the Colo/Infra/Energy providers ( $CIFR, $WULF, and others) whose core business is supplying that power capacity. The bear case on capex -> FCF + buildout delay timeline has now directly addressed with the Speed ACT. Now the US government is set accelerate companies like $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN as AI Datacenters is now placed on the forefront of the AI national security battle between the United States and China. Whether it passes legislation in the House is what every investor should be watching, but if does, this is one of the largest (not-talked about) tailwinds for the Neocloud /AI Decenter buildout.
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认为 Neocloud 板块在长期合同去风险后仍被错杀
同意。 像 $CIFR 这样的公司，现在交易得仿佛 $AMZN、$GOOGL 的合同从未发生过。 在整个 Neocloud 板块里，我们看到的是一场崩盘，尽管 Mag7 合同已经让全板块去风险，并提供了长期收入可见性。 $ORCL、$CRWV 以及一些个股因为 OpenAI 敞口而下跌是有道理的，但它把板块其他公司也一起拖下去了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed. Companies like $CIFR are trading like the $AMZN, $GOOGL deals never happened. In the whole Neocloud sector, we’re seeing a crash despite de-risking and long term revenue visibility across the board with Mag7 contracts. $ORCL, $CRWV, and some individual names made sense given OpenAI exposure but it just dragged the rest of the sector alongside it.
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周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
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博通财报后AI板块抛售是误解造成的买入机会，新云板块中OpenAI依赖股除外
博通[$AVGO]业绩及其对AI板块的影响，如$LIITE和$NBIS： 博通的业绩"双重超预期"，营收$180.2亿(+28% Y/Y)，EPS $1.95，超出共识预期。 但AVGO下跌-11.64%，并拖累了整个AI板块。 这是买入机会吗？ 是的。 博通被视为超大规模云厂商ASIC代理增长的代表，因为亚马逊$AMZN Trainium、微软$MSFT Maia、尤其是谷歌$GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood都通过它进行规模化部署。 而像$ALAB(-13.2%)、$CRDO(-5.11%)、$LITE(-12.23%)、$TSM(-3.71%)、$COHR(-9.25%)等公司都是TPU/ASIC建设以及博通作为公司的直接受益者。 博通下跌有三个原因，市场下跌有一个原因： 就博通而言，有一些小问题，如税率变化影响EPS模型，或因更多定制AI芯片而非更高利润率软件导致的"利润率压缩"，但这只是会计处理框架问题。（类似于$META在一次性税收后最初的下跌） 对博通和整体市场而言，是积压订单预期问题。以上所有引用的内容与ASIC市场预期增长相比都是小问题。 博通披露未来18个月$730亿的AI积压订单。而有关Anthropic和META购买价值数十亿$GOOGL TPU的传言，人们隐含预期是$800亿+。 然而，这次抛售是由算法和短期AI泡沫情绪驱动的价格错位，而非基本面破裂。 这条积压订单引用是确认订单的最低合同底线。谷歌$GOOGL、亚马逊$AMZN等公司可能会继续增加ASIC订单，而市场未能辨别这一细微差别。 分析师预期营收转化会更加前置，Q4之后积压订单应该会减少，这给出了2026年更高的可能范围$550-600亿+，而非$730亿预期中的$500亿。 TLDR：关于超大规模云厂商ASIC加速以与$NVDA依赖竞争这一论点没有改变。$AVGO和其他如$COHR、Sk Hynix、$MU、$VRT和$LITE都将受益。 这不是关于营收积压订单的最佳消息，但由于交付周期/订单周期和最低底线而被误解。 如果非要说什么，较低的超级云厂商ASIC需求对$NVDA及其生态系统是有益的，但我们也看到$CRWV、$SMCI、$NBIS和$NVDA GPU/DC计算生态系统今天都从盲目抛售中下跌超过5%，尽管存在负相关性。 这又是典型的"AI泡沫"周期因误解而再次来袭。AI股票普遍下跌10-12%的恐慌是一个绝佳的买入机会。 （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 甲骨文[$ORCL]业绩及其对新云板块如$NBIS和$IREN的影响： 甲骨文报告EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后下跌12%。 甲骨文较9月11日高点下跌39.8%，并拖累整个板块。 原因如下： 这次抛售不仅仅是对边际营收miss的反应，而是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出周期可持续性以及该板块主要租户信用资质的不看好： OpenAI。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加$150亿至近$500亿，这与报道的与OpenAI $3000亿合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI是前沿LLM，对甲骨文、Coreweave等公司有前景良好的资本支出承诺，促成了该板块的初始重新定价。 然而，随着超过$1万亿的义务以及Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等竞争对手的增加，市场严重质疑甲骨文、Coreweave等公司是否为无法从运营现金流履行其义务的租户在建设。 我们看到市场有效地发出信号：甲骨文正在为OpenAI创造一种不可持续的债务驱动型"供应商融资"，而OpenAI无法履行其承诺。 因此下跌是理性的：这次抛售是由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重新定价所驱动。 OpenAI融资担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设得到其营收($130亿)与义务($600亿/年)之间明显不匹配的支撑。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文CDS利差扩大显示"信用事件"降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在新云板块引发传染效应，$NBIS从$140跌至$90s，$IREN从$80跌至$40s，$CIFR从$24s跌至$17s。 但这对$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司来说是买入机会吗？ 是的。 这对$ORCL来说是好的买入机会吗？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL（很大一部分）、$CRWV（25%积压订单）是两个主要依赖OpenAI的公司，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间翻转（+30%+变化）。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值超额认购IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，我们可以看到这种改变。 然而，许多其他公司与OpenAI无关。新云板块的原始论点是Mag7资本支出从其现金牛业务（Azure、AWS、GCP）向下流向：$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL、$CRWV)下跌，这些公司算法性地拖累了整个板块。 如果你看各家公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL兜底，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是与超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压订单，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的不理性抛售为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不是与OpenAI相关的公司如$ORCL和$CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS: Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus. But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector. Is this a buying opportunity? Yes. Broadcom is seen as a hyperscaler ASIC proxy growth as companies like $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, and most importantly $GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood are scaled through it. And by proxy companies like $ALAB (-13.2%), $CRDO (-5.11%), $LITE (-12.23%), $TSM (-3.71%), $COHR (-9.25%), and are direct beneficiaries of the TPU/Asic buildout and Broadcom as a company. There's three reasons why Broadcom fell and one why the market fell: For Broadcom, there's minor things such as tax rate changing EPS models or "margin compression" from accounting from just more custom AI chips than higher-margin software, but this is just accounting framing. (Similar to how $META dropped initially on one-time tax post-ER) For both Broadcom general market, it was backlog expectations. Everything cited above is all minor compared to expected growth of ASIC markets. Broadcom cited $73B in AI backlog for the next 18 months. And rumors of Antrophic and META buying billions of $GOOGL TPUs, people were implicitly expecting $80B+. However, the selloff represents a dislocation in price driven by algorithms and short-term AI Bubble sentiment rather than a fundamental breakage. This backlog quote was the MINIMUM CONTRACTUAL FLOOR of confirmed orders. Companies like $GOOGL, $AMZN, will likely continue ramping up ASIC orders and the market failed to discern this nuance. Analysts are expecting revenue conversion to be more front loaded, and that there should be less backlog beyond Q4 given the cycles, which gives a higher likely range of $55-60B+ for 2026 rather than $50B expected of the $73B. TLDR: The thesis regarding hyperscaler ASIC ramp to compete vs $NVDA dependency has not changed. $AVGO and other players like $COHR, Sk Hynix, $MU, $VRT, and $LITE all stand to benefit. It's not the best news regarding the revenue backlog, but it's misunderstood due to lead-time/order cycles and minimum floors. If anything, lower hyperscaler ASIC demand is beneficial to $NVDA and their ecosystem, but we've also seen $CRWV, $SMCI, $NBIS and $NVDA GPU/DC compute ecosystem drop over 5%+ today from an indiscriminate sell-off despite inverse correlation. This is just the typical "AI Bubble" cycle hitting again from misunderstanding. The widespread panic of AI stocks dropping 10-12% is a great buying opportunity.
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看好$AAOI，因其在AI光互联中的核心地位及美国本土制造优势，认为其被严重低估。
我买入 $ALAB、$NBIS、$TSM 和 $LITE，是因为“七巨头”(Mag7) 的收入正流向这些公司。 $LITE 的独特之处在于其在 GOOGL TPU v7、AMZN Trainium v3/4 和 NVDA Blackwell 中的角色。 但我发现了一个新标的。 一家市值低于 30 亿美元的小盘股，符合我的投资逻辑： 名称 - $AAOI 一家小型光子学玩家，也是我持仓的两家光子学公司之一： 1. Lumentum ($LITE) 在每一款芯片的部署/爬坡中都占据独特地位，因为其光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching) 技术被用于 Blackwell、Trainium 和 Ironwood，作为一种“横向扩展”(scale-across) 型技术。 无论超大规模云厂商选择 ASIC 还是 GPU，$LITE 都能胜出，因为它处于核心位置。 2. Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 更多涉及“纵向扩展”(scale-out) 连接，针对 Trainium、Maia 等定制 ASIC 集群，通过 400G 和 800G 光缆及光收发器实现。 鉴于 $AAOI 在 AWS（Trainium 的大客户）和 MSFT Maia ASIC 中的角色，它也能无论何种情况都胜出。 行业正经历由向 800G 速度迁移驱动的“超级周期”，而 AAOI 正处于中心位置。 此外，AAOI 具有独特的地缘政治角度： 美国优先。 与许多无晶圆厂(fabless)并将生产外包到台湾的公司不同，Applied Optoelectronics 在德克萨斯州自行制造激光器。 美国超大规模云厂商（特别是 Amazon 和 Microsoft）正在积极减少对关键基础设施中国供应链的依赖，这有助于 AAOI 实现本土激光器制造。 我们还看到一家“主要超大规模云厂商”对其 800G 数据中心光收发器下达了另一笔巨额订单。 但 AAOI 的交易表现像一家困境公司；然而，其亚马逊权证协议隐含的收入为 2025 年 Q4 和 2026 财年的 800G 爬坡创造了非对称的风险/回报特征。鉴于其在 AI 建设中的角色及现有的超大规模云厂商合同，AAOI 似乎结构性被低估。 市场终于开始重估 $LITE，但感觉 $AAOI 才刚刚开始，鉴于其小市值以及作为超大规模云厂商 ASIC 集群关键玩家和“美国制造”的独特角度。 市场目前正在对光子学玩家进行大幅重估并赋予高溢价，但 AAOI 今年仅上涨 2.20%，似乎蓄势待发。
原推 ↗英文原文
I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them. Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell. But there's a new one I found out about. A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis: Name - $AAOI A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in: 1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology. $LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all. 2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers. $AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs. The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it. On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle, America first. Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas. US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home. And we've seen another huge volume order from a "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers. But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts. The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America. The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.
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OpenAI优势减弱，AI行业多极化，基本面未受损公司现买入机会
OpenAI 此前是明确的领导者。现在，Gemini 3.0 在图像生成方面超越了它，Claude Opus 4.5 在编码方面超越了它。以此类推。看起来在获得先发优势后，ChatGPT 似乎无法被颠覆。但现在从 Similarweb 数据我们可以看到，Gemini 的受欢迎程度相对于 ChatGPT 正在增长。而且我相信由于使用内部张量处理单元(TPU)进行推理，它们的成本效益也更高。OpenAI 试图通过要求 Mag7 和政府为其合同承诺提供担保，使整个行业依赖它，以便大家同船沉没，但这最终失败了。整个 AI 行业不仅仅是 OpenAI，随着我们看到更多的代理(Agentic)和机器人应用，我们很可能会看到 Anthropic、Google、XAI 和其他供应商的广泛大型语言模型(LLM)和日益增长的算力使用。但目前我们看到这种传染效应从 OpenAI 蔓延到该领域的几家公司 $ORCL、$CRWV，可能还有 $AMD 以及其他几跳远的公司，它们正在为承诺的资本支出构建产能。但这正在拉垮那些与 OpenAI 隔离（就股价而言）的其他公司，因此如果基本面没有受到实质性影响，这就是一个买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
OpenAI was the clear leader before. Now, Gemini 3.0 surpasses it in image generation. Claude Opus 4.5 surpasses it in coding. Can go down the line. It looked like ChatGPT couldn’t be disrupted after they got first movers advantage. Now from similarweb data we can see popularity with Gemini growing vs ChatGPT. And im sure they’re a lot more cost effective as well using in house TPUs for inference. OpenAI tried making the whole industry dependent on it, by asking Mag7 + government to backstop their contract promises so they all go down the ship together but that ended up flopping. AI industry as a whole is not OpenAI, we’ll likely see widespread LLM + growing compute usage from Anthropic, Google, XAi and other vendors as we see more agentic + robotics applications next. But right now we’re seeing contagion spread from OpenAI to several companies in the sector $ORCL, $CRWV, maybe $AMD and others few hops away that were building out capacity for their promise capex spend. But it’s taking down other companies isolated from OpenAI (in terms of stock price), which is why it’s a buying opportunity if fundamentals aren’t too materially impacted.
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对比NBIS与CRWV债务风险，指出市场忽视个体差异盲目联动。
是的，这是个很好的例子。如果你查看 $NBIS 和 $IREN 的可转债发行，由于 $MSFT（Magnificent 7）是它们共同的积压订单，两者的利率都在1-2.5%左右。许多新云厂商受到 OpenAI 的影响，甚至像 $APLD 这样通过 $CRWV（主要租户）间接关联两跳的公司，也不得不以9.25%的利率出售垃圾债券。$NBIS 每年支付约7300万美元利息，而 $CRWV 支付超过13亿美元。但市场似乎因 OpenAI 的传染效应而整体联动该板块，未能区分那些被隔离的个别公司。利息债务、风险和客户锚点的差异是巨大的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep that’s a good example. If you look at convertible offerings for $NBIS and $IREN both their interest rates were 1-2.5% roughly because $MSFT (mag7) is their shared backlog. A lot of Neoclouds are affected by OpenAi though and even by two hops like $APLD from $CRWV(main tenant), which had to sell junk bonds at 9.25%. $NBIS is paying ~$73m/year from interest, while $CRWV is paying upwards of $1.3B. But the market seems to move the whole sector together from OpenAI contagion without discerning individual companies that are isolated. The difference in interest debt, risk, and customer anchors is massive.
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OpenAI 恐慌引发 AI 供应链板块抛售，独立标的现买入机会。
确实如此。其中很大一部分源于对 OpenAI 的担忧。例如，OpenAI 是 $CRWV 的锚定租户之一；$ALPD 出售垃圾债 -> 信贷收紧。随后板块抛售。显然这是多因素的（例如，套息交易平仓引发的更广泛抛售），ATM 增发/可转换票据 + 部分公司进一步稀释 -> 市场风险偏好下降。但再次强调，$ALPD 和 $CORZ 与 $CRWV 挂钩，而后者与 OpenAI 挂钩。$CIFR、$WULF 通过 Fluidstack 作为锚定方与 $GOOGL 挂钩。$NBIS 为 $MSFT 和 $META 进行建设。这是一个极其微妙的板块，但像 OpenAI 引发的全板块抛售/恐慌也为更独立的玩家提供了买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
They did. A large part of it was OpenAI fears. eg. OpenAI -> one of $CRWV anchor tenant. $ALPD selling junk bonds -> credit tightening. Sector selloff after. Obviously it's multifacted (eg. broader selloff from carry trade unwind), ATM offerings/convertible notes + more dilution for some -> market risk off. But again, $ALPD + $CORZ are linked to $CRWV which are linked to OpenAI. $CIFR, $WULF -> $GOOGL through Fluidstack as anchor. $NBIS -> Buildout for $MSFT and $META. It's an extremely nuanced sector, but whol sector selloff/fears like OpenAI presents a buying opportunity too for the more isolated players.
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Neocloud龙头承压，但获超大规模云商背书的个股是理想买点。
我预计Neocloud股票今天会表现不佳，因为$ORCL/$CRWV是“板块龙头”。 但这将是该板块个股的理想买入机会： 因为市场忽略了$ORCL/$CRWV高负债扩张的主要交易对手是OpenAI这一细微差别。 但该板块的其他公司如$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF则由AAA评级的超大规模云服务商（$META/$META/$GOOGL/$AMZN）的现金牛业务提供背书。
原推 ↗英文原文
I expect a bad day for Neocloud stocks just because $ORCL / $CRWV are "sector leaders". But this would be an ideal buying opportunity for individual companies in the sector: Due to the market missing the nuance that $ORCL / $CRWV's debt-filled buildout is for OpenAI as the main counterparty. But other companies in the sector like $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF are backstopped by AAA-rated Hyperscaler ( $META / $META / $GOOGL / $AMZN) cash cows.
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板块错杀提供买入机会，NBIS/IREN无交易对手风险且利用率高。
超额收益(alpha)在于了解哪些类型的合同能让人免受当前恐惧的影响，以及行业内哪些个别组件存在定价错误。$MSFT、$META 等公司的算力容量合同是“照付不议”(take or pay)的。 $NBIS、$IREN 等公司由于与“七巨头”(Mag7)（拥有无限资产负债表）签订5年期合同，实际上消除了**交易对手风险**(counterparty risk)。 然而，它们下跌的原因不同（$NBIS 因2500万股的自动行使机制(ATM)发行；$IREN 因市场担忧其为将剩余3GW的AI云容量管道变现而进行稀释，而非用于数据中心托管(colocation)）。 然而，主要的普遍担忧是 $ORCL、$CRWV 面临来自 OpenAI 破产+无力支付的严重交易对手风险，但由于它们是两大主要玩家，这引发了整个板块的算法抛售。 但这种板块抛售为一些未受影响（除信贷收紧外）/被误解的公司提供了良好的买入机会。 此外，AI是一个增长的市场，目前可能存在算力紧张（例如 anthropic、gemini 和其他模型），但 $NBIS、$IREN 在超大规模云服务商合同上的利用率基本为100%。 显然，如果存在过度建设，可能会导致利润率压缩，但我们目前尚未看到这种情况。5年后会发生什么，我不知道。
原推 ↗英文原文
The alpha is knowing what types of contracts lead to isolation from current fears and where there's mispricing on individual components in the sector. Compute capacity contracts are take or pay for $MSFT, $META, and others. Companies like $NBIS, $IREN and others are effectively de-risked due to **no counterparty risk** from Mag7 (infinite balance sheets) and 5 Year contracts. However, their drops were different reasons ( $NBIS, 25M share ATM), $IREN fears over dilution for monetizing their rest of the 3 GW capacity pipeline for AI Cloud instead of colo. However, the main overarching fear was that $ORCL, $CRWV faces severe counterparty risk from OpenAI insolvency + inability to pay, but this causes a sector algorithmic selloff because they're the two largest players. But this sector sell-off is a good buying opportunity for some of the unaffected (minus credit tightening) / misunderstood companies. Also AI is a growing market, and there's likely compute strain for the time being (eg. anthropic, gemini, and other models) but it's basically 100% utilization for hyperscaler contracts on $NBIS, $IREN. Obviously if there's overbuild, there's probably margin compression but we're not seeing that right now. What happens after 5 years I don't know.
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甲骨文因OpenAI信用风险大跌，新云板块错杀，建议买入非OpenAI依赖标的。
甲骨文($ORCL)的财报结果及其对$NBIS和$IREN等“新云(Neocloud)”板块的影响： 甲骨文财报EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后仍下跌12%。 甲骨文自9月11日高点以来已下跌39.8%，并拖累了整个板块。 原因如下： 抛售不仅是对营收轻微不及预期的反应，更是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出(Capex)周期可持续性，以及该板块主要租户OpenAI偿债能力的担忧。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加150亿美元至近500亿美元，这与据报道的与OpenAI的3000亿美元合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI作为前沿大语言模型(LLM)，向甲骨文、Coreweave等承诺了诱人的资本支出，推动了板块的初步重估。 然而，随着超过1万亿美元的债务义务以及来自Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等的竞争加剧，市场严重怀疑甲骨文、Coreweave等是否为一家无法通过经营性现金流履行义务的租户建设基础设施。 市场有效发出了信号：甲骨文正在为无法履行承诺的OpenAI提供不可持续的债务融资“供应商融资(Vendor Financing)”。 因此，下跌是理性的：抛售由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重估驱动。 OpenAI资金担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设，由其收入(130亿美元)与义务(600亿美元/年)之间的巨大错配所支持。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文信用违约互换(CDS)利差的扩大表明“信用事件”降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在“新云”板块中引发了传染效应：$NBIS从140美元跌至90美元区间，$IREN从80美元跌至40美元区间，$CIFR从20多美元跌至17美元区间。 但这对于$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司是否是买入机会？ 是的。 这对$ORCL是否是好的买入机会？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL(大部分)和$CRWV(25%积压订单)是两大主要依赖OpenAI的玩家，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间反转(+30%以上波动)。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值进行超额认购的IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，情况可能改变。 然而，许多其他玩家与OpenAI隔离。新云板块的原始逻辑是Mag7从其现金牛业务(Azure, AWS, GCP)向下漏斗资金至：$NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL, $CRWV)下跌，算法交易拖累了整个板块。 如果单独看公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL背书，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是来自超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的非理性抛售，为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不包括与OpenAI绑定的$ORCL和$CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
Oracle [ $ORCL ] earning results and its effect on the neocloud sector like $NBIS & $IREN: Oracle reported earnings with a beat on EPS and a record backlog but, dropped 12% after hours. Oracle is down 39.8% from September 11th highs and brought down the sector with it. Here's why: The sell-off was not merely a reaction to marginal revenue miss, but both an algorithmic short and investor selloff on the sustainability of the AI capex cycle and the creditworthiness of the sector's primary tenant: OpenAI. Oracle's announcement of a $15 billion increase in 2026 capital spending to nearly $50 billion was inextricably linked to a reported $300 billion partnership with OpenAI. Originally, OpenAI was the frontier LLM, with promising capex promises to Oracle, Coreweave and others, contributing to the initial repricing of the sector. However, with over $1t+ in obligations and increasing competition from Anthropic, Gemini, XAI, and others, the markets have serious doubts on whether Oracle, Coreweave, and others are building for a tenant that cannot currently fund its obligations from operating cash flow. WE're seeing the market effectively signaling that the market Oracle is creating an unsustainable debt-funded "vendor financing" for OpenAI, which cannot fulfill its promises. So, the drop was rational: The sell-off was driven by a rational repricing of credit risk and capital intensity. OpenAI Funding Fear is Valid: The hypothesis that OpenAI lacks the funds to honor its contracts is supported by a glaring mismatch between its revenue ($13B) and its obligations ($60B/year). Credit Fears are Real: The widening of Oracle's CDS spreads sees a rising probability of a "credit event" downgrade or default. Furthermore, we're seeing this trigger a contagion effect across the "Neocloud" sector from $NBIS dropping from $140 to $90s, $IREN dropping $80 to $40s, $CIFR dropping from $24s to $17s. But is this a buying opportunity for Neoclouds like $WULF, $NBIS, $IREN, and others? Yes. Is this a good buying opportunity for $ORCL? No. Forward Outlook: $ORCL (large portion) , $CRWV (25% backlog) are the two players largely dependent on OpenAI and this narrative can flip in an instant (+30%+ change) depending on capital raising activity from OpenAI. If OpenAI files for an oversubscribed IPO in 2026 at high valuations and it's new GPT models beats out Gemini/Claude, we can see this change. However, many other players are isolated from OpenAI. The original thesis of the Neocloud sector was Mag7 capex funndel from their cash cows segments (Azure, AWS, GCP) down into: $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF, and others. But as the largest players ( $ORCL, $CRWV) fall, these algorithmically bring down the whole sector. If you look at the companies individually, companies like $CIFR and $WULF are being backstopped by $GOOGL, and $IREN / $NBIS are funded by $MSFT. These are locked in contract backlogs from Hyperscalers/Mag7, not OpenAI. This irrational selloff due to misunderstanding of risks presents an amazing buying opportunity for the Necoloud sector, but not companies tied to OpenAI like $ORCL and $CRWV.
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分析NBIS受ATM及空头压制，但基本面强劲且机构增持，高波动需耐心持有。
就我个人对 $NBIS 的观察来看，其表现主要受定向增发(ATM)抛压、板块拖累、短期空头以及19日到期的巨额未平仓合约影响。例如，$CRWV 昨日上涨5.13%，而 $NBIS 同日下跌3.91%，我认为这归因于空头或ATM操作。有些令人遗憾，尽管 $NBIS 是降息的最大受益者（新云(neocloud)板块），但今天下跌2%，而其他散户宠儿如 $RKLB 却上涨8%+。价格走势有时会让你自我怀疑，但即使有10%的稀释，也改变不了你提到的事实：Nebius 2026年底年化经常性收入(ARR)中值为80亿美元，与Avride推出了Robotaxis，与 $META 达成30亿美元交易，Clickhouse增长极快，另外两家子公司同比增长100%，其中Toloka受益于 $META 的Scale收购。机构持股比例目前可能接近52%（上月彭博终端显示50%多，MSCI调整前），较上季度的30%多高，机构确实在从投降的散户手中收购股份。此时持有很痛苦，但请记住作为市场上最高贝塔(beta)股票之一，它在一周内可能波动35%。（在2-3周内从100美元到140美元到95美元再到130美元）。
原推 ↗英文原文
So from what I've seen personally with $NBIS, it's largely ATM overhang + sector drag + short term shorts, and large amounts of open interest expiring on the 19th. For example, $CRWV was up 5.13% yesterday, while $NBIS was down 3.91% same day, and I'd attribute that to either shorts/ATMs. It's a little unfortunate, even as the largest beneficiary of rate cuts (neocloud sector), $NBIS is down 2% today while other retail favorites like $RKLB are up 8%+. Price action makes you doubt yourself sometimes, but even with 10% dilution, it doesn't really change the fact as you mentioned Nebius has $8B midpoint ARR EOY 2026, they launched Robotaxis with Avride, $META $3B deal, Clickhouse is growing incredibly fast, and their other two subsidaries are growing 100% Y/Y with Toloka benefiting from $META Scale acquisition. Institutional ownership is now probably closer to 52%(bloomberg terminal 50's last month pre msci) from high 30's last quarter and institutions are definitely acquiring shares from retail capitulating. Painful hold at this point, but keep in mind it can move 35% on a random week as one of the highest beta stocks in the market. (went from $100 to $140 to $95 to $130 in the span of 2-3 weeks).
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美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。
美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级： 强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释： 今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。 然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。 强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。 话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。 三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。 买入评级： 文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入 回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.
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批评$NBIS大规模ATM增发导致股价承压，对比$CRWV表现。
$NBIS 有一个2500万股的自动取款机(ATM)增发，很可能正在公开市场上出售。 $CRWV 今天上涨了5.13%+，而 $NBIS 收盘下跌3.91%。这就是为什么我非常讨厌这种规模的ATM增发。 这基本上就是在等待公司完成ATM增发，或者在其他做空者活动的背景下暂停它。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS has a 25 million share ATM that's likely being sold on the open market. $CRWV went up 5.13%+ today while $NBIS ended the day down 3.91%. That's why I really dislike ATMs at this size. It's just basically waiting for the company to finish the ATM offering or pause it amid other short seller activity.
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日元套利平仓短期利空，中期利好新云板块，建议做多。
短期日元套利交易平仓（日本加息，美联储降息）带来轻微负面影响。中期影响对成长型资产，尤其是涉及债务驱动增长的“新云”板块（如 $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS）应极具看多意义。基本面未见放缓迹象，因此我认为现在是做多的好时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Short term unwinding from yen carry trade (Japan rate hike, fed cut), which was slightly negative. Medium term impact should be incredibly bullish on growth assets, especially Neocloud sector that involve debt for growth like $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS. Don't see any fundamentals slowing, so great time to go long imo
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更新持仓表现，计划逢高加仓AMKR/SMCI，等待LITE回调。
持仓更新： 持有高确信度的多头头寸如 $NBIS 并卖出期权，周末相对轻松。 上周小幅加仓更新： $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite 受益于 $NVDA Blackwell 和 $GOOGL v7 TPU 的产能爬坡。 $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 受益于美国关于与 $TSM 建厂的政策。 $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$210.3亿 （明年营收同比增长60%，季度积压订单延迟导致的40%跌幅是不合理的）。 $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 除了 $CRWV 再融资20亿美元并拖累其他 Neoclouds，以及华纳兄弟1080亿美元 Paramount 收购案风波外，没看到太多新闻。 可能会在 $AMKR 和 $SMCI 上逢高加仓，等待 $LITE 更深幅度的回调。
原推 ↗英文原文
Stock position updates: Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend. Minor position adds updates from last week: $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 Benefits from US-policy regarding Fab with $TSM. $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$21.03B (60% Y/Y revenue growth going into next year, the 40% drop for quarter backlog delay was unwarranted). $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 Haven't seen too much news aside from $CRWV raising another $2B and tanking other Neoclouds. Or the $108B Paramount bid drama for Warner. Probably going to cost average up on $AMKR, $SMCI, waiting on a deeper drops for $LITE.
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看好RKLB与NBIS，认为市场低估了这两家行业第二梯队的成长潜力。
市场正在错误定价地球上最大板块中的第二梯队玩家。 我对 $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 的论点： 1. 太空领域 ($RKLB) -> SpaceX 估值刚从 $350B 升至 $800B。Rocketlab 将从 $26B 增长至 SpaceX 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题。 2. 自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxis) ($NBIS) Waymo 在一年内从 $45B 涨至 $200B。$NBIS Avride 将从 $6B 增长至 Waymo 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题，无论是一年还是四年后。 关于 $NBIS 的关键点是：Avride 只是其众多子公司之一，仅这一家公司在两年内的价值就可能超过当前的整体市值。 市场和空头都错误定价了这样一个事实：Nebius 拥有地球上增长最快、最热门的板块公司，且全部实现 100%+ 的同比增长。 做多 $RKLB，做多 $NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
The market is mispricing the #2 players in the biggest sectors on Earth. My thesis on $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 1. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B It's just a matter of time. 2. Robotaxis ( $NBIS ) Waymo went from $45B → $200B in 1 year. $NBIS Avride is going to grow into Waymo's previous valuation from $6B. It's just a matter of time, whether that's 1 year or 4 years from now. And here is the thing with $NBIS: Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years. Both the market and short sellers misprice the fact that Nebius owns the fastest growing and hottest sector companies on Earth, all growing 100%+ Y/Y. Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS.
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反驳Hedgeye做空逻辑，对比Coreweave指出Nebius财务更健康且业务多元。
做空机构 @Hedgeye 正在做空 Nebius $NBIS。股价现为 $97.8。 他们的观点？Nebius 是 Coreweave 2.0。 Coreweave [ $CRWV ]： - 客户多元化程度低，主要是超大规模云服务商，约四分之一的积压订单来自 OpenAI。 - 剩余现金 18 亿美元。 - 由于 8-10% 利率的有毒融资，每年债务利息超过 13 亿美元。 Nebius 也是如此吗？ Nebius [ $NBIS ]： - 在 Neocloud 市场中拥有最高的客户多元化，包括 $META、$MSFT、政府、$SHOP、Mistral、$NOW 等。 - 剩余现金超过 48 亿美元。 - 票据结构约 40%+ 价外(OTM)，年利率约 2%，每年利息支出约 7660 万美元。 - 拥有对 $UBER 至关重要的 FSD 4 级 Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车业务板块（最后一轮融资 $UBER 投入 3.75 亿美元），以对抗 Waymo。 - AI 训练板块由贝索斯资助，并被 $AMZN、Anthropic 等使用。 - 持有子公司 28% 的股份，该子公司被 $TSLA、$NET、Tiktok、$META 等大多数上市公司使用。 - 4 家子公司同比增长 100%，伴随核心运营业务增长，Tripleten/Toloka 每年增加净收入。 这是同一家公司吗。
原推 ↗英文原文
A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8. Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0. Coreweave [ $CRWV ]: - Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI. - $1.8B in cash left - $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest. Same thing as Nebius right? Nebius [ $NBIS ]: - Highest diversification in the Neocloud market of customers from $META, $MSFT, governments, $SHOP, Mistral, $NOW, and many others. - $4.8B+ in cash left - ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest. - FSD level 4 Robotaxi self driving car segment that is of critical importance to $UBER (last round $375M with $UBER) to compete vs Waymo. - AI training segments funded by Bezos and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others - 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies from $TSLA, $NET, Tiktok, $META and so on use - 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y alongside their core operational business, with Tripleten/Toloka adding to net income every year. Same company.
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反驳做空 $NBIS 观点，对比其与 $CRWV 在财务及业务上的巨大差异。
做空 $NBIS 是个好主意，因为你认为它和 $CRWV 一样，不错的论点！ $CRWV -> 每年 13 亿+美元的债务利息，拥有来自 OpenAI 的大量积压订单，剩余现金 18 亿美元。 $NBIS -> 可转换票据结构，利息不会严重侵蚀盈利能力；客户基础多元化以实现高利用率（Shopify、Cursor、政府机构、Meta/MSFT 等超大规模云服务商）；拥有 48 亿+美元现金用于建设；Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车板块被 $UBER 使用并正在扩展以与 Waymo 竞争；AI 训练板块由 $AMZN、Anthropic 等资助并使用；持有 28% 的子公司股份，该子公司被大多数上市公司使用，所有 4 家子公司同比增长 100%——市值 240 亿美元。 当然和 Coreweave 是同一家公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great idea to short $NBIS because you think it's the same $CRWV, nice thesis! $CRWV -> $1.3B+ yearly debt interest, large backlog from OpenAI, $1.8B in cash left. $NBIS -> Convertible notes structure where interest doesn't heavily cut into profitability, diversified customer base for high utilization (shopify, cursor, governments, hyperscalers like meta/msft), $4.8B+ in cash for buildout, Robotaxi self driving car segments used by $UBER and scaling up to compete vs Waymo, AI training segments funded by and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others, 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies use, all 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y - $24B MC. Same company as Coreweave for sure.
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分析NBIS和IREN财报后大跌原因，认为跌幅过度且受情绪影响。
财报前 $NBIS 股价在 $115-$135 区间。此后因以下利好下跌约 21%-40%：与 $UBER 合作推出 Robotaxi FSD，ARR 预估翻倍，GW 产能指引上调 150%，$META 意外合同，MSCI 纳入带来的资金流入。唯一的利空是 2500 万股稀释。作为投资者我极度反感这一点（更偏好 FCF -> 产能爬坡）。不幸的是，$ORCL 和 $CRWV 的重大债务警告、$CRWV 影响 $APLD 等供应商发行垃圾债及信贷收紧，以及 GPU 折旧论调同时打击了 Neocloud 市场。其中只有信贷收紧是实质性的，不足以解释 $NBIS 的大幅下跌（纯属情绪）。话说回来，他们确实需要改善营销。（例如没人将 Robotaxi 与 $NBIS 关联，主流新闻也不知晓此事）。至于 $IREN，他们出人意料地选择购买 GPU 而非 Colo 服务，鉴于 3GW 产能，投资者可能看到巨大的潜在稀释，因此也下跌了 40%。我相信 $IREN 在营销方面没问题，它拥有像 $ASTS 那样的狂热追随者（这对他们是好事）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pre-earnings $NBIS was sitting around $115-$135. We've dropped over ~21%-40% since then on: Robotaxi FSD launch with $UBER, doubled ARR estimates, increased GW capacity guidance by 150%, surprise $META contract, MSCI inclusion inflow. The only downside: 25m share dilution. Which I extremely dislike as an investor (FCF -> ramp up would be preferred) Unfortunately, TI hit reports on $ORCL, $CRWV major debt flag, $CRWV affecting suppliers from $APLD raising junk bonds + credit tightening, and GPU depreciation arguments all kind of hit the Neocloud market at the same time. Only credit tightening was something material and doesn't warrant that much of a drop for $NBIS (purely sentiment). That being said they need to improve their marketing for sure. (Eg. nobody associates robotaxis with $NBIS at all and even mainstream news don't know about it). As for $IREN, they did a surprising move to buy GPUs instead of colo offerings and given the 3GW capacity investors probably see a huge huge amount of potential dilution, hence the 40% drop too. I'm sure $IREN is fine on the marketing front, it has that cult-like following like $ASTS (which is a good thing going for them).
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反驳收入无法覆盖折旧论，指出利用率提升带来经营杠杆效应。
“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是错误的，你没有正确陈述单位定价（会下降）与经营杠杆（会规模化）的关系。在“前置投入”阶段，你拥有资产（折旧正在发生），但尚未产生全部收入。随着你为 $MSFT/$META 合同及其他客户启动集群，利用率提高，利润率随之扩张（可变）。因此，“收入无法在折旧之上实现规模化增长”是谬误，因为收入确实能通过利用率在折旧之上实现规模化增长（折旧是固定的，而收入是可变的）。只需看看 $CRWV 约 74% 的现金利润率，它足以覆盖折旧。（忽略 $CRWV 庞大的利息债务，而 $IREN 和 $NBIS 都没有这种债务）。
原推 ↗英文原文
"Revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is wrong, you're not stating unit pricing (which degrades) vs. operating leverage (which scales) correctly. In the "front loading" phase, you have the assets (depreciation is active) but not the full rev yet. As you turn on clsuters for the $MSFT/ $META contract and others, utilization increases and margins expand (variable). So "revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is false because revenue absolutely scales past depreciation due to utilization. (depreciation is fixed while revenue is variable) Just look at ~74% or so cash margins from $CRWV that cover the depreciation. (ignoring $CRWV's massive interest debt which both $IREN and $NBIS dont have).
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分析NBIS与CRWV在自动驾驶及云基础设施领域的稀缺性与护城河。
我的意思是，并非所有人都能开发出 FSD 级别的 L4 自动驾驶汽车。美国可能只有 5 家主要玩家：亚马逊、Waymo、特斯拉、$NBIS（Nebius）的 Avride 和 Motional。 除非你的问题是指母公司。 那么在公开上市的 Neoclouds 中，只有 $NBIS 和 $CRWV。其中只有一家拥有巨大的客户多元化（Shopify、Cursor、政府、微软/元等），这有助于提高利用率（对利润率至关重要）。 此外，它混合了全栈 + 软件全栈编排层。例如，GPU 利用率 -> 更快的训练时间 + 降低运营支出，从而通过软硬件结合建立经济护城河。这并不容易创建，$CRWV 花费了数十亿美元和数年时间，这就是为什么矿工/colo 玩家无法轻易转向全栈服务。 如果只有个位数的供应商能做到这一点，那技术可能非常复杂。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean not everyone can develop FSD-level 4 self driving cars. There's probably only 5 main players in the US. Amazon, Waymo, Tesla, $NBIS Avride, and Motional. Unless your question was about the parent company. Then out of public company Neoclouds, there's only $NBIS and $CRWV. Then there's only one with immense amount of customer diversification ( Shopify, Cursor, governments, msft/meta, and so on) which helps with utilization (huge for margins). Also it's mixes full stack + software full stack orchestration layers. eg. GPU utilization-> faster time to train + lowers opex to create an economic moat from software + hardware mix. It's not easy to create this, $CRWV spent billions of dollars and years which is why miners/colo players can't exactly pivot to full-stack offerings. If there's single digit providers that can do things, it's probably technologically very complex.
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CoreWeave CEO称其自研软件栈是核心竞争优势。
对于 $CRWV，其CEO表示，正是其软件编排(software orchestration)能力，使他们能够将裸机(bare metal)转变为功能完备的超级计算机。CNBC上有一段5分钟的采访涉及此话题。 另一段采访： “CEO强调了CoreWeave的定制软件栈(custom-built software stack)，他认为这将在长期使公司脱颖而出。他表示：‘从我们的角度来看，我们真的相信，随着时间的推移，将我们与他人区分开来的……是驱动我们在基础设施上实现性能的……软件栈。’ Intrator补充说，CoreWeave的软件栈是从零开发的，以优化为指导原则。”
原推 ↗英文原文
For $CRWV its software orchestration according that allows them to turn bare metal into fully functioning supercomputers to their CEO. There’s a 5 min CNBC interview on this Another interview: “The CEO highlighted CoreWeave’s custom-built software stack, which he believes will set the company apart in the long run. He stated, “From our position, we really believe that over time, what’s going to differentiate us from anyone else is the … software stack that drives the performance that we’re able to achieve on our infrastructure.” Intrator added that CoreWeave’s software stack was developed from scratch, with optimization as the guiding principle. “
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分析NBIS、IREN和CRWV商业模式优劣及新云厂商时间窗口。
好问题。麦肯锡曾就此话题发文（我觉得写得极差，因为他们以 $CRWV 为主要锚点）。 但其中部分观点成立，并对 $IREN 等公司发出警示。他们的观点： - 当前的裸金属租赁商业模式薄弱且脆弱 - 避免过度依赖少数大客户 - 开辟可防御的利基市场（如主权计算、专用工作负载） - 通过收购整合或成为超大规模云服务商 这些确实正确，但未能捕捉到一些细微差别。 关于 $NBIS： - 极度多元化（这构成了利用率的强大护城河，对利润率计算至关重要） - 全栈式（可防御的利基市场） - 通过收购整合（旨在成为超大规模云服务商，拥有4家同步增长的子公司） 这就是我说它具有最高非对称上行潜力的原因。 关于 $IREN： - 当前的裸金属租赁业务目前是护城河。文章指出长期来看它很脆弱，这是正确的。因此 $IREN 正通过与 $MSFT 合作开展 GPU 基础设施即服务(IaaS) 向上攀登全栈阶梯，并可能尝试构建上层软件层（尽管这很难） - 我们将拭目以待，这需要极高的执行力。 关于 $CRWV - 老实说，我不知道他们如何摆脱债务陷阱 - 他们试图用 $NVDA 作为后盾，但这充其量也很脆弱（例如 OpenAI 拥有 1 万亿美元以上的资本支出，试图争取政府 + 科技七巨头提供资金担保） 新云厂商是一场与时间的赛跑，我同意文章的观点（这就是我说高确信度持有2年，而非5年以上的原因）。 他们拥有从科技七巨头(Mag7)弱势中获取收入的绝佳窗口期 -> 将收入转化 -> 建立长期差异化和护城河。 我不知道最终结果如何，但我们将拭目以待。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hi great question. So there was an article by Mckinsey on this topic (which I think is terribly written since they use $CRWV as the main anchor). But some points holds true, and gives warnings to $IREN and others. Their claims: - current bare-metal rental business model is weak and fragile - avoids overreliance on a few giant customers - carve defensible niches (sovereign compute, specialized workloads) - consolidate through acquisitions or be a hyperscaler Are definitely correct, but fail to capture some nuances. So for $NBIS: - Extremely diversified (so this is more as a powerful moat for utilization, which is huge for margin calculations) - Full-stack (defensible niche) - consolidate through acquisitions (it's aiming to become a hyperscaler, has 4 subsidiary companies growing alongside it) That's kind of why I've said it has the highest asymmetrical upside of the bunch. For $IREN: - current bare-metal rental business is a moat as of today. The article is correct in stating long term it's fragile. That's why $IREN is moving up the full-stack ladder doing GPU iaas with $MSFT, and will likely try and build software layers on top (though it's hard) - We will see what comes out of this, it's high execution. For $CRWV - idk how they're going to get out of the debt trap tbh - they're using $NVDA to backstop it, but it's shaky at best (eg. openai with $1t+ in capex trying to get gov + mag7 to backstop funding) Neoclouds are a race against time, I agree with the article (which is why I said 2 year high conviction hold, not 5 years + ). They have this brilliant window of opportunity of weakness from mag7 -> funnel revenue down -> build long term differentiation and moats. I don't know what will happen, but we'll see
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AI云股被算法归篮联动，CRWV财务堪忧，NBIS/IREN长期价值或超CRWV。
是的，完全同意。我认为算法/市场目前将 $NBIS、$IREN 归入 $CRWV、$NVDA 的篮子中。因此，任何关于 Coreweave 的负面报道都会对其他公司产生负面影响。我们终于看到 $WULF、$CIFR 等被归入数据中心(colocation)篮子（相对不受 GPU 贬值论点影响），并表现优异。但坦率地说，$CRWV 是一个财务噩梦，只要它被视为新云(neocloud)行业领导者，就会影响其他公司。至于 $NVDA，$GOOGL 的 TPU 论据是我目前看到的针对 $NVDA GPU 云业务最强的看空理由，但这些公司已经从 $META、$MSFT 锁定了 5 年的超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)合约。我认为市场最终会正确定价，我相信 $NBIS 和 $IREN 有一天会比 $CRWV 更有价值，但其中只有一家拥有自动驾驶 Robotaxi lol。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep absolutely. I think algos/market put $NBIS, $IREN in the $CRWV, $NVDA basket right now. So any negative hit piece about Coreweave does negatively affects the others. We've finally seen $WULF, $CIFR and others get put into the colo basket (which are relatively unaffected to GPU depreciation arguments), and outperform. But $CRWV is a financial nightmare to put it bluntly, so it does affect the others as long as it's treated as the neocloud sector leader. As for $NVDA, TPU arguments from $GOOGL is the strongest bear case I've seen to date though on $NVDA GPU clouds, but these companies already have have 5 year hyperscaler deals locked in from $META, $MSFT. imo markets will price things in correctly in due time, I do think both $NBIS and $IREN will be worth more than $CRWV one day. but only one of those has self-driving robotaxis lol
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看好NBIS为行业龙头，静待市值超越CRWV。
@babyfolio 在我看来，它已经是明确的领导者！只等市场将 $NBIS 的未来增长/利润率计入定价，使其市值超越 $CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio It’s already the clear leader in my view! Just waiting for market to price in $NBIS forward growth/margins and the marketcap overtaking $CRWV.
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感谢粉丝，认为评论区讨论有助于深入理解各公司差异。
@retail_mourinho 谢谢！ 我也很喜欢评论区讨论进一步凸显了 $CRWV、$NBIS、$CIFR、$DGXX 等公司之间的细微差别。 这让学习过程更有趣，对话也更引人入胜。
原推 ↗英文原文
@retail_mourinho Thanks! I also like how a lot of the nuances between each company like $CRWV, $NBIS, $CIFR, $DGXX and others get highlighted further in comment section discussions Makes for more engaging learning + conversations
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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看好传统云商，CRWV或成新云代表，板块成员间接受益。
鉴于数据的重要性，概率上更倾向于像 $ORCL 这样的联邦云(FedRamp)提供商以及像 $AMZN、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 这样的传统超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)。 $CRWV 可能是最有可能成为新云(Neocloud)代表的公司，但他们仍处于应用阶段。$NBIS 的可能性不大。 话虽如此，新云板块的其他成员也是间接受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
Prob just fedramp providers like $ORCL and traditional hyperscalers like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $MSFT given how critical the data is. $CRWV is probably the most likely Neocloud but they’re still in application phase. $NBIS is unlikely. That being said, other Neocloud sector members are indirect beneficiaries.
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梳理新云领域中小玩家定位，类比AI版AWS。
@AustranSkolSwft $WULF 作为像 $CIFR 一样的数据中心托管(Colo)服务商，属于新云(Neocloud)领域。$IREN 凭借带有 GPU 的全栈 IAAS 服务也归入此类。 但唯一的全服务纯新云玩家是 $CRWV 和 $NBIS。 不过它们都属于那个新类别：充当 AI 版 AWS 的小型参与者。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AustranSkolSwft $WULF is in the neocloud sector as a colo player like $CIFR. $IREN falls there too under full-stack IAAS with GPUs. Only full-service pure Neocloud would be $CRWV and $NBIS. But they're all under that new category of small players acting as AWS for AI.
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警惕OpenAI泡沫，看好Mag7资本支出受益的AI基础设施股。
我对“AI泡沫”的主要担忧是OpenAI及其1万亿美元资本支出(capex)的承诺。这显然是一个泡沫（以及大语言模型LLM的私人估值）。其他大多数方面则不然。 任何直接依赖他们的公司，如$ORCL、$CRWV，鉴于AI模型在技术上已超越GPT，可能会陷入困境。所以简单的做法就是远离它们！ 就我个人而言，ChatGPT 5.1的表现糟糕透顶，我实际上取消了订阅，转而使用Gemini/Claude。Claude Opus 4.5在编码任务上优于Codex。Gemini在图像生成上优于ChatGPT。此类例子不胜枚举。 无论如何，AI将长期存在，任何与Mag7相关的（$GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF），（$MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS），以及连接性如$ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7)都极具前景，因为它们是Mag7自由现金流(fcf)增加资本支出的直接受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
The main fear I have in the "AI Bubble" is OpenAI and their $1T capex promises. That is a clear bubble (and private valuations of LLMs). Most other things, no. Any company directly reliant to them $ORCL, $CRWV might be in trouble given how AI models leapfrogged GPT. So the simple thing to do is stay away! Personally speaking, ChatGPT5.1 is horrendous and I actually cancelled my subscription to go with Gemini/Claude. Claude Opus 4.5 outperforms Codex in coding tasks. Gemini outperforms ChatGPT in image generation. Can go on and on. Regardless, AI is here to stay, and anything Mag7 related ( $GOOGL -> $CIFR, $WULF ), ( $MSFT -> $IREN, $NBIS), connectivity like $ALAB (AWS), $CRDO (mag7) is extremely promising since they're the direct beneficiaries of increasing capex from mag7 fcf
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TPU/AMD因NVDA产能受限受追捧，若NVDA产能过剩才需担忧竞争逆风。
问得极好，我关于谷歌TPU（张量处理单元）有一个非常详尽且微妙的论点。 总结：真正需要担心的是，如果TPU和AMD在长期表现上优于$NVDA，导致人们**偏好**其他GPU并转而购买它们。而不是因为$NVDA的GPU卖光了，被迫去买替代品。 但这只是简版。目前的情况就像$AMD： 它是$NVDA潜在的竞争替代品，短期内对基本面影响不大。 这对$NVDA专属云（如$CRWV）和$NVDA自身（例如$META可能会购买TPU）构成长期逆风。但其中的微妙之处在于，$NVDA受限于GPU产能，否则$META可能根本不会去买任何TPU。 短期/中期对盈利影响不大。中期对$TSM、像$CIFR这样的 Colo（数据中心）提供商、以及GPU无关的云提供商构成顺风。 $NVDA刚经历了一个爆发性的季度，Q4预测也极其惊人。直接看那些营收预测就好。 所以我说的微妙之处在于：人们买$AMD和TPU是因为产能受限。$NVDA生产的任何东西都能售罄。 如果$NVDA生产的任何东西都卖不完，那时你才需要担心逆风和$NVDA的故事。
原推 ↗英文原文
Amazing question, so I have a really long nuanced thesis regarding Google TPUs. SUMMARY: The thing to be worried about is if TPUs and AMD outperform $NVDA long term, so people **PREFER** other GPUs and buy them instead. Not because they ran out of $NVDA GPUs to buy and are forced to go get alternatives. But this is a TLDR. Right now it's like $AMD: Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals. This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV ) and $NVDA itself (eg. how $META might buy TPUs ). But part of that nuance is because $NVDA is constrained on how much GPUs they can produce lol, otherwise $META might not just buy any TPUs. Short-term/mid-term it's not very material to earnings. Medium term tailwind for $TSM, colo providers like $CIFR, GPU agnostic cloud providers. $NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections. SO the nuance what I'm trying to say is people buy $AMD, TPUs because they're capacity straigned. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce. If $NVDA can't sell out of anything they produce, then that's where you get worried about the headwinds and $NVDA story.
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分析$NBIS自建数据中心、GPU贬值、融资稀释及过度建设四大风险。
关于风险的好问题，我也喜欢讨论下行风险。 1. 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)在5年内完全自建数据中心，包括GPU（$GOOGL的TPU，$AWS的Tranium）、能源和选址。 这类似于高通(Qualcomm)与苹果的关系。苹果使用$QLCM，然后建立垂直整合——一旦完成就抛弃客户。因此在此期间建立公司自身护城河很重要（$NBIS在此期间通过Cursor、Shopify等企业客户进行全栈建设并扩展子公司。完全依赖一两个超大规模云厂商合同的公司表现不佳）。 2. $NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL的GPU贬值风险。 任何进行全栈服务的提供商都有更高的利润率、更高的收入和更快的爬坡速度。但这涉及在GPU上花费数十亿美元，而这些GPU在未来4年内价值大幅缩水。 我一直认为GPU多年后仍有价值，例如TPU仍在使用7-8年，2020年的$NVDA GPU仍高价转售并用于不同层级的推理（低优先级），并与新模型并行运行。 3. 信贷收紧+稀释 建设支出过多->需要更多稀释以建设和购买GPU。我们已经看到$4B可转债+$2.5B ATM发行。$NBIS应该足够，但始终存在利润率低于预期的风险（如$ORCL建设），然后公司需要更多稀释。在更难融资的市场中（如$APLD垃圾债），可能会遇到$CRWV的问题，被迫以糟糕的利率融资，侵蚀利润率。 4. 过度建设 如果LLM软件有突破，例如Claude Opus 4.5使用DeepSeek类型的轻量级推理，那么GPU利用率降低，我们会看到数据中心、$NVDA、$AMD等随AI浪潮下跌。 这些可能是$NBIS的四个主要风险。每家公司不同，对于$IREN我会指出其IaaS层的软件编排以优化利润率，但$NBIS已经掌握这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just uses $QLCM, then builds it's own vertical integration -> once it's done it sacks the customer. Hence why it's important to build up a company's own moat during the time ( $NBIS is doing full-stack with its own enterprise clients like cursor, shopify, etc during this time and scaling subsidiaries. Companies fully dependent on one or two hyperscaler contracts don't do well). 2. GPU deprecation for $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL. Any provider doing full stack has higher margins, higher revenue, higher ramp. But that comes into spending billions on GPUs and the GPUs not too much value over the course of the next 4 years. I've always maintained GPUs are still valuable many years later, eg. TPUs still are used 7-8 years later, 2020 $NVDA GPUs are still resold high and are used different stacks of inference (lower prio) but run alongside newer models. 3. Credit tightening + dilution Too much spend on buildout -> needs to dilute more to build + buy GPUs. We've already seen that with the $4B convertible + $2.5B ATM offering. $NBIS should have enough, but there's always the risk margins are lower than expected eg. $ORCL buildout, then the company needs to dilute more. In a market where it's harder to raise eg. $APLD junk bonds, it might run into the $CRWV problem where they are forced to raise money with terrible interest rates cutting into the margins. 4. Overbuildout If there's a breakthrough in LLM software, for example, Claude Opus 4.5 using deepseek type lightweight inference, then less utilization of GPUs then we see data centers, $NVDA, $AMD, and others go down with the AI ship. Those are probably the four main risks for $NBIS. This is different for each company, for $IREN I would point to software orchestration for their iaas layer for margin optimization but for $NBIS they have that down.
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对比NBIS的爆发式增长与CIFR的稳健长期价值。
从我在AI增长板块的观察来看，是的，$NBIS 极其罕见，因为它前身是 Yandex。作为背景，这基本上相当于俄罗斯的百度/中国或谷歌/美国，他们将 Avride 等子公司剥离至 Nebius。至于 $CRWV 等其他公司，它们对 Monolith AI 等收购案更多是为了补充现有核心业务，而非像 $NBIS 那样实现三位数的独立同比增长。而收购 Weights and Bias 花费了17亿美元（据我了解其增长并不快）。至于其他数据中心/矿企，不幸的是比特币增长也不快，但长期来看防御性很强。因此，例如 $CIFR 通过其资产负债表的增长速度会慢得多。但从长期来看，作为股东持有它非常稳健，符合其下行风险较低的数据中心(colocation)模式和较慢的收入爬坡模型。如果你想一年内从0做到2000亿，$NBIS 是做法；如果你想用5年做到，$CIFR 是选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
From what I've seen in the AI growth sector, Yes, $NBIS is incredibly, incredibly rare since it was Yandex before. For context, that's basically Baidu/China | Google/US equivalent but for Russia and they spun off subsidiaries like Avride into Nebius. For stuff like $CRWV and other companies, their acquisitions like Monolith AI were more to compliment their existing core business rather than growing independently at triple digits Y/Y. Then $1.7B for Weights and Bias (that is not growing too fast from what I'm floated numbers) As for the other DC/miner companies, unfortunately Bitcoin isn't growing too fast either, but it's very defensible long term. So growth rate of $CIFR via their balance sheets for example will be a lot slower. But longer term it's really solid to have as a shareholder and goes in line with their low downside risk colo model, slower slower revenue ramp model. If you want to go from 0 to 200B in a year, $NBIS is how you do it. If you want to do that in 5 years time, $CIFR is where it's at.
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Nebius因AI投资组合及核心业务高增长被严重低估，有望成下一个GOOGL。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 是目前被低估程度最高的成长型公司。它有望成为下一个市值达 210 亿美元的 $GOOGL。原因很简单：其投资组合公司令人惊叹。最极端的例子是 $FTX。回顾 $META 如何成长为万亿级巨头，不仅靠 Facebook，更靠 Instagram、Whatsapp 等投资组合公司主导了社交媒体格局。$FTX 在数字资产和前沿技术领域做了类似布局。2021 年，$FTX 投入 58 亿美元，重仓三家核心公司：1. Anthropic（13.56%，估值 25 亿）；2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ]（7.6%，估值 85.4 亿）；3. Solana [ $SOL ]（4100 万+代币）。如今，Anthropic 最新估值 3500 亿，该持股价值约 474 亿；Robinhood 市值超 1000 亿，持股价值约 76 亿；Solana 代币 131.5 美元，持股价值超 57 亿。仅这三家公司四年增值超 550 亿，还不包括 FTX 其他数十亿投资及 Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被 $COIN 收购）等。其投资组合价值超越了核心业务（试想若核心业务如 $GOOGL 搜索般增长该多好）。$NBIS 现在拥有与 $FTX（加密）、$META（社交）相同的结构，但在人工智能领域，且核心业务真实且快速增长。Nebius 持有：1. Clickhouse（28%，估值约 70 亿，2025H1 营收 6.3 亿）；2. Avride（83%，估值约 60 亿，Uber 领投后）；3. Toloka AI（~65%，估值约 6.4 亿）；4. TripleTen（100%，估值约 3 亿）。Clickhouse 服务于 Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET 等；Avride 是自动驾驶出租车公司，$UBER 投资 3.75 亿以竞争 Waymo；Toloka 是 AI 标注平台，被 Amazon、Microsoft 等使用。投资组合估值合计 76 亿，增速快于多数公开成长股。而其核心业务同比增长 700%+，ARR 达 70-90 亿，现金 48 亿，服务于 $META、$MSFT 等。这可能是其被纳入 MSCI 指数前最后一个月低于 90 美元的机会，将获数亿至十亿流入。相比 $IREN 或 $CIFR，$NBIS 是唯一拥有此类投资组合的数据中心成长股。$NBIS 仅估值 210 亿，市场正在忽视这一机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now. And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason: It's portfolio companies are mindblowing. The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story: When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape. $FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies. Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies: 1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation. 2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation 3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens. Fast forward to today, that would have been: · Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B. · Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B. · Solana is now worth $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B. Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto. Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube). $NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business. Nebius owns: 1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025) 2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise) 3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation 4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation. · Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies. · Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo. · Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses. $1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies. But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more... This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR. $NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.
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四大流动性冲击引发高杠杆资产暴跌，但AI巨头基本面未变。
市场刚刚经历了近代史上最严重的去杠杆冲击。 高贝塔资产正在崩溃： • $NBIS, $IREN, AI 股票从高点下跌约 40%+ • $MSTR, $BTC 在过去一个月暴跌 30-40%+ • 加密货币市值蒸发超过 1.2 万亿美元 这不正常，这是针对市场上增长最快且杠杆最高的板块的强制平仓。 以下是同时发生的四个流动性流失因素： 1. 加密货币前兆冲击（2025 年 10 月 – Binance 故障） • Binance 的定价错误导致 USDe 跌至 0.65 美元，在 24 小时内触发了超过 190 亿美元的强制清算 • 使用 USDe/wBETH/BNSOL 的高杠杆头寸（25x–50x）引发了全行业连锁保证金清算的连锁反应 • 该事件使加密货币结构脆弱，波动性现在威胁到流入 $MSTR/国债股票超过 70 亿美元的 MSCI 资金，存在 BTC/NAV 错配和强制出售比特币的风险 2. 美联储政策不确定性（降息鞭打效应） • 在美联储发出矛盾信号后两天内，市场对 12 月降息预期从 97% → 35% → 70%+ • 这种波动起到了隐性紧缩的作用，迫使杠杆基金和算法（在 $NVDA 财报后看到的情况）提前去杠杆 • 政策模糊性提高了全球风险，将美国的不确定性传导至全球融资市场的广泛抛售 3. AI 信贷压力（投机性债务破裂） • AI 建设需要 3.5 万亿美元的外部融资，促使公司大量进入债务市场 • Google + XAI 在 Similarweb 上的使用量提升引发了人们对 OpenAI 和循环融资的担忧，以及 $1T+ 的资本支出流向 $ORCL, $CRWV, $AMD 等公司，而这些公司并没有必要的资本。 • Applied Digital [ $APLD ] 23.5 亿美元垃圾债券（评级 B+）暴露了交易对手和集中度风险，由于需要更多债务来资助建设，其股票及相关数据中心股票下跌。 • 资本市场开始区分拥有真实现金流的公司和依赖投机性债务及 OpenAI 合同的公司，惩罚了如 $ORCL 和 $CRWV 等标的。 4. 日元套利交易平仓（催化剂） • 日本央行加息至 0.5% 及正常化缩小了美日利差，挤压了 80 万亿日元（约 5000 亿美元）的杠杆头寸 • 日本国债收益率上升引发回流资金，给美国收益率带来压力并抽干全球流动性 • 强制平仓导致投资者出售美国科技股和加密货币以偿还日元贷款，加剧了避险情绪的连锁反应 底线： 所有四个冲击都从市场的同一角落抽干了流动性——高贝塔、高杠杆资产，导致成长型科技和加密货币剧烈去杠杆，并增加了进一步强制抛售的风险。 过度的杠杆、脆弱的资产负债表和集中度风险决定了哪些资产跌幅最大。 美联储开启新一轮降息周期是一个“拐点”，投资者需要判断这种宽松是预防性措施还是对更严重衰退的反应。然而有一件事是确定的： 宏观冲击重置了估值，但并没有改变从 $NBIS 到 $META 的企业基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets just suffered their worst deleveraging shock in recent history. High-beta assets are collapsing: • $NBIS, $IREN, AI stocks are down ~40%+ from peaks • $MSTR, $BTC plunged 30-40%+ in the past month • Crypto erased over $1.2 trillion in value This wasn’t normal, it was a forced unwind across the markets with the most growth and leverage. Here's the four liquidity drains hitting at once: 1. Crypto precursor shock (Oct 2025 – Binance failure) • A pricing error on Binance sent USDe to $0.65, triggering $19B+ in forced liquidations in 24 hours • Highly leveraged positions (25x–50x) using USDe/wBETH/BNSOL cascaded into a chain reaction of cascading margin liquidations across the industry • The event left crypto structurally fragile, and volatility now threatens $7B+ MSCI inflows into $MSTR/treasury stocks, risking BTC/NAV mispricing and forced Bitcoin sales 2. Fed policy uncertainty (rate cut whiplash) • Markets priced a December cut at 97% → 35% → 70%+ in two days after conflicting Fed signals • This volatility acted as a stealth tightening, forcing leveraged funds and algorithms (seen post $NVDA earnings) to deleverage pre-emptively • Policy ambiguity raised global risk, transmitting U.S. uncertainty into broad selling across global funding markets 3. AI credit stress (speculative debt cracks) • AI build-out requires $3.5T in external financing, pushing companies heavily into debt markets • Google + XAI raise in usage per similarweb raised concerns about OpenAI and circular financing, alongside how $1T+ in capex spend going into $ORCL, $CRWV, $AMD, and others without having the ncessary capital. • Applied Digital [ $APLD ] $2.35B junk bond (rated B+) exposed counterparty and concentration risk, sending its stock and related data center stocks down due to the need of more debt to fund buildout. • Capital markets began differentiating between firms with real cash flow and those reliant on speculative debt and OpenAI contracts, punishing names such as $ORCL and $CRWV. 4. Yen carry trade unwind (the catalyst) • BoJ rate hikes to 0.5% and normalization narrowed the U.S.–Japan rate gap, squeezing ¥80T (~$500B) in leveraged positions • Rising JGB yields triggered repatriation flows, pressuring U.S. yields and draining global liquidity • Forced unwinds led investors to sell U.S. tech and crypto to repay yen loans, amplifying the risk-off cascade Bottom line: All four shocks drained liquidity from the same corner of the market, high-beta, leveraged assets, driving a violent unwind in growth tech and crypto and raising the risk of further forced selling. Excessive leverage, fragile balance sheets, and concentration risk determined which assets crashed the hardest. The beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle by the Fed is an "inflection point" as investors need to determine whether the easing is a preventative measure or a reaction to a more serious downturn. However one thing is for certain: The macro shock reset valuations, but it didn’t change the fundamentals of businesses from $NBIS to $META.
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CRWV 虽发行条款优，但高债高息致利润受损，评级为 F。
$CRWV 完全配得上 F 级评级。如果从发行条款(offering point)的角度看，它确实是一流的。但从资产负债表(balance sheet)来看，简直是一场噩梦，尤其是背负着 140 多亿美元的债务，加上为 OpenAI 建设所承担的 10 多亿美元债务利息，而 OpenAI 能否偿还尚不确定。此外，他们仅剩 19 亿美元现金。大量利润被用于支付债务利息，这严重损害了利润率(margins)（相比之下，其他通过可转换票据(convertible note)融资的新兴云厂商(neoclouds)没有这种利息负担）。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRWV is well deserving of F tier. If we go from an offering point of view, then it’s top of the line. Balance sheet wise, it’s a nightmare, especially with the $14B+ in debt plus the $1B+ debt interest for the buildout for OpenAi which may or may not be able to pay. They also have $1.9B cash left. A lot of the profit goes off to paying debt interest which hurts margins a lot (compared to other neoclouds that don’t have that interest since they did convertible note).
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分析GLXY评级高于APLD的原因及Coreweave风险
是的，如果仅如你所说比较高性能计算(HPC)板块，我可能会将 $GLXY 降级至与 $APLD 相同的 C 级。但由于其其他业务板块，其资产负债表要稳健得多，因此需要动用较少的债务/信贷额度，这就是它评级更高的原因。他们还从事大量其他业务，如与 $HOOD 竞争的经纪业务、加密货币流动性提供商等，这改善了自由现金流(FCF)，但这样比较有点不公平。他们确实通过与 $CRWV 在 Helios 园区的合作获得了长期的超大规模客户可见性，当时的利率约为 9.10%。但这方面的 downside 是 Coreweave，且其破产的可能性不为零。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah I'd might move $GLXY down to a C tier alongside $APLD if we just had to compare HPC sector as you mentioned. But because of their other segments, their balance sheet is vastly better so they had to tap into less debt/crdit facilitaties, which is why it's a grade higher. They do a ton of other stuff like $HOOD competitor brokerage, crypto liquidity providers, etc. and it improves fcf but a bit of an unfair comparison. They do have long term hyperscaler visibility with $CRWV on their Helios campus with the the interest rate was ≈9.10%. Downside of that is Coreweave, and there's a nonzero chance it goes under.
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Coreweave全栈虽强但现金流紧张且依赖OpenAI，风险巨大。
同意。但关于 @_melonBird 引用的 SemiAnalysis 对 $CRWV 的排名，我认同该表格。Coreweave 和 $NBIS 是整个 Neocloud 领域中唯二在“全栈”方面做得扎实的。Coreweave 花了多年时间和数十亿美元进行收购，以完善软件。然而，当你查看公司财务报表时，该表格毫无意义。Coreweave 仅剩 19 亿美元现金等价物，且每年面临 12 亿美元以上的债务利息。在信贷收紧期间，他们还需要为其他超大规模云厂商合同的建设筹集更多资金（而像 $NBIS 这样规模小得多的玩家却有 49 亿美元以上用于资本支出）。此外，其 1/3（220 亿美元以上）的积压订单来自 OpenAI，而 OpenAI 尚未获得履行该 1 万亿美元以上承诺的资金，$CRWV / $ORCL 正在为他们建设产能，这构成了巨大风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed. But to @_melonBird with the SemiAnalysis ranking on $CRWV, I agree with that table. Coreweave and $NBIS are the two with full-stack nailed down in the whole Neocloud sector. Coreweave spent many years and billions of USD on acquisitions to get software right. However, that table doesn't mean anything when you look at company financials. Coreweave only has $1.9B cash equivalent left and faces $1.2B+ a year from debt interest. And they'd need to raise more for buildout for their other hyperscaler contracts during a period of credit tightening (when much smaller players like $NBIS has $4.9B+ to spend on capex) On top, 1/3 ($22B+) of their backlog comes from OpenAi which has no funding for that $1T+ promised yet, and $CRWV / $ORCL is building out capacity for them, which presents a massive risk.
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澄清对BITF、SLNH等股评级，讨论NBIS产能及SMCI、DGXX风险。
所以我认为你是在回复我从未提出的观点。澄清一下：我没有对 $BITF 进行评级。如果你读了我的帖子，它属于未评级类别，所以我不会辩论它与 $WYFI 或 $SLNH 相比的位置。 至于 $SLNH，我们在任何观点上都没有分歧，我也将其列为 F 级，因为它是一只炒作股，其“2.8GW 产能”建设计划需要过度的债务/稀释。 你说关于 $NBIS “它与比特币挖矿的关联程度以及他们是否拥有电力”——我会把这当作口误，认为你是在用比特币挖矿指代 $CLSK，而你指的是 $NBIS 的产能。 $NBIS 在产能方面实现了与 $IREN 的近乎长期平价，后者被认为是行业中 GW 产能最高的玩家。所以我认为那部分是不正确的。 至于关于 $SMCI 作为可靠/值得信赖的合作伙伴的论点，我某种程度上不同意，但你确实改变了我的想法，认为 $DGXX 具有更低的运营和技术执行风险。 除此之外，那部分并不会真正改变排名，例如将其与 $APLD 并列，后者有 2 个超大规模云厂商合同（如果包括 $CRWV），但存在垃圾债券（收入可见性）的下行风险。 如果你想仅因市值带来的回报潜力而将其与 $CLSK 并列，我会同意。
原推 ↗英文原文
So I think you're replying to points I never made. Just to clarify: I didn't rate $BITF. If you read my post, it fell into the unrated category, so I'm not debating where it goes in comparison with $WYFI or $SLNH. As for $SLNH, we're not disagreeing on anything I put it as F tier as well since it's a hype stock that requires excessive debt/dilution on their "2.8GW capacity" buildout plans. You said for $NBIS "how attached it is to Bitcoin Mining and if they own their power" - I'll take that as a mispeak and that you were using Bitcoin mining in reference with $CLSK, and that you were referencing capacity for $NBIS +. $NBIS achieved near long-term parity with $IREN from the capacity side, which is associated as the highest GW capacity player in the industry. So I'd argue that part is incorrect. So as for $SMCI being a reliable/trustworthy partner argument, I sort of disagree, but you did change my mind regarding $DGXX having lower operational and technical execution risk. That aside, that part wouldn't really change rankings, eg. putting it the same as $APLD which has 2 hyperscaler contracts (if you include $CRWV) but downside from junk bonds (revenue visibility) If you wanted to put it on par with $CLSK just due to return potential from MC size, I'd give you that.
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分析NBIS融资优势及高利润率，认为其抗风险能力强于同行。
当然，我从产能融资的角度将 $NBIS 列为 S 级，因为它不受影响其他数据中心（DC）股票（如被迫发行垃圾债的 $APLD）的信贷紧缩影响。 从第三季度财报来看，$CRWV 面临 12.1 亿至 12.5 亿美元的利息支出，而现金等价物仅为 19.4 亿美元。 其他新云（neocloud）板块股票需要更多现金来资助建设并实现吉瓦（GW）产能变现，例如 $IREN，且将面临更高的利率或缺乏融资兴趣（如可转换债券）。 这大概就是板块抛售的原因，但部分抛售相对不合理（例如 $NBIS、$CIFR）。 对于 $NBIS，你可能关注的是其 25 亿美元的自动取款机（ATM）增发。凭借现有的 48 亿美元以上现金，他们足以支持全栈建设和产能变现，并可根据与 $META、$MSFT 的可见收入合同扩展未来产能。 但我个人对其 ATM 增发并不满意，因为这会增加成本影响股价，并抵消 11 月 24 日纳入 MSCI 指数带来的资金流入。 但 $NBIS 拥有 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入（ARR），拥有行业最高利润率，鉴于其 200 亿美元市值，这足以抵消 10% 的稀释和可转换债券的影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, I put $NBIS as S tier from that capacity funding angle because it's isolated from credit tightening affecting other DC stocks like $APLD (that had to sell junk bonds). From Q3 earnings, $CRWV is facing $1.21-$1.25B in interest expenses and only has $1.94 billion in cash equivalents. Other neocloud sector stocks will need more to cash fund buildout + monetize GW capacity ike $IREN, and will face higher interest rates or lack of funding interest (eg. convertibles). This is kind of why we're seeing a sector selloff, but some were relatively undeserved (eg. $NBIS, $CIFR). With $NBIS you're probably looking at their $2.5B ATM offering. With their existing $4.8B+ in cash, they have enough for their full-stack buildout and capacity monetization + and can scale future capacity from visible revenue contracts with $META, $MSFT. But I'm personally not happy with their ATM, since it's an overhead affecting stock price + balances out inflows from MSCI inclusion in 2 days Nov 24th. But $NBIS with $7-9B ARR has the highest margins in the industry, which would offset 10% dilution and convertibles given their $20B marketcap.
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Coreweave因高债务和OpenAI依赖被评F级，NBIS更优。
如果你花30秒读一下帖子，就会发现我并没有给 $BITF 评级。 关于 $CRWV，短期有上涨空间，因为抛售至60美元区间确实过度了。但中长期的债务利息负担过重。 相比之下，$NBIS 和 $IREN 通过可转换债券融资或低利息，每季度对利润率的侵蚀很小；而 Coreweave 每年支付的债务利息超过12亿美元。 此外，OpenAI 占其总积压订单的三分之一。虽然他们拥有一些有防御性的大型超大规模客户（$META, $MSFT）以及 $NVDA 的背书，但像 $ORCL 那样为 OpenAI 建设基础设施，鉴于其缺乏收入以及 Gemini ($GOOGL) 的竞争，存在相当大的风险。 因此，尽管 Coreweave 是备受好评的全栈式服务供应商，但由于荒谬的债务利息侵蚀利润率，加上积压订单高度集中于 OpenAI（合同不确定性），其评级为 F 级，而这并不影响像 $NBIS 这样多元化的全栈式服务供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you spent just 30 seconds reading the post, you would see I didn't rate $BITF. With $CRWV there's short term upside because sell-off was way too much to the $60s. But medium-long term they have way too much debt interest. While $NBIS and $IREN funds through convertibles or little interest cutting into margins every quarter, Coreweave pays over $1.2B+ in annual debt expense interest. OpenAI also makes up 1/3th of their total backlog, so while they have some defensible hyperscalers ( $META, $MSFT) + $NVDA backstop, building out for OpenAI like $ORCL, presents considerable risk given their lack of revenue + Gemini $GOOGL competition. So they are F tier despite being a highly rated full-stack offering due to absurd debt interest cutting into margins + large concentration of backlog from OpenAI (contract uncertainty) that don't affect diversified full-stack offerings like $NBIS.
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作者将DGXX评为D级，指出其营收无锚定租户且执行风险高，但现金充裕，区别于其他同行。
我确实做了评级，将 $DGXX 评为 D 级。最初我像对待 $CLSK 一样将其归为 U 级，但在进一步研究后忘记将其移除。 如果我没错的话，$DGXX 的 $65m 营收是无保障的，不像 $CIFR 之于 $GOOGL 或 $CORZ 之于 $CRWV 那样有锚定租户(anchor tenant)。 此外，由于它是微盘股(microcap)且在高性能计算(HPC)领域历史较短，其业务转型(pivot)的执行风险(execution risk)也更高。他们已通过 $100M 的自动取款机(ATM)增发进行了稀释，因此至少与未来需要大幅稀释的 $SLNH 相比，目前的稀释程度较低。但它更具投机性，类似于新加入的 $WLAC（WLAC 拥有 FluidStack 合作伙伴关系，因此存在 $GOOGL 兜底(backstop)的潜力）。 他们还有 $92M 的流动资产且无不良债务，考虑到其市值规模，这绝对是一笔巨款（但像其他公司一样，这些资金将用于建设），不过执行风险已反映在评级中。 这并不意味着它是一只坏股票，我也因高潜在上行空间而持有 $WLAC 并将其归为 D 级。只是想区分该板块内各公司在合同可见度(contract visibility)和执行方面的细微差别。
原推 ↗英文原文
I did, rated $DGXX D tier. Originally put it in U like $CLSK, but forgot to edit them out when I looked into them further. Correct me if I'm wrong but $DGXX $65m revenue is unsecured, there's no anchor tenant like $CIFR is to $GOOGL or $CORZ is to $CRWV. There's also more execution risk on pivot, just due to the fact it's a microcap company + little history in HPC. They've already diluted with a $100M ATM, so there's less dilution now at least compared to $SLNH, which will need to dilute heavily in the future. But it's more speculative along the lines of $WLAC (WLAC has fluidstack partnership so potential of $GOOGL backstop) that was added in. They also have $92M in liquid assets with no bad debt, which is absolutely huge given their marketcap size (but like others, that will be spent on the buildout), but execution risk is priced in to the Tier. Doesn't mean it's a bad stock, I own $WLAC because of high potential upside too and put it in D tier. Just wanted to distinguish between the nuances between companies in the sector (contract visibility + execution).
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基于财报与宏观因素，发布Neocloud板块个股梯队排名及评估框架。
Neocloud（新云）板块梯队排名。 Q3财报后+市场板块回调： [S] 级：$NBIS [A] 级：$CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] 级：$GLXY, $CORZ [C] 级：$APLD, $CLSK [D] 级：$WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] 级：$CRWV*, $SLNH [U] 级：$GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** 从左到右依次排名。 *：短期价格下跌创造了诱人的入场点（例如 $CRWV），但中期（12个月）吸引力仍然有限。 **：不确定，决定不评级（但在梯队图中列为F级）。一些纯矿企尚未完全转型为HPC（高性能计算）+ 合同不确定性太大。 很多人询问财报后的更新，这些只是基于以下加权评估的个人想法： a. 合同可见性和收入确定性 b. 对宏观收紧和信贷条件的韧性 c. 资产负债表强度和利润率概况 d. HPC建设风险（产能执行和编排） e. 收入增长轨迹（1-2年视野） f. 当前市值相对于收入增长和基础设施价值的比率 整个Neocloud板块都很有吸引力，但截至Q3，某些公司的非对称回报显然高于其他公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Neocloud Sector Tierlist. Post Q3 earnings + Market Sector Drop: [S] Tier: $NBIS [A] Tier: $CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] Tier: $GLXY, $CORZ [C] Tier: $APLD, $CLSK [D] Tier: $WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] Tier, $CRWV*, $SLNH [U] Tier: $GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** Ranked in order from left to right. * : Short-term pricing drops created compelling entries (e.g., $CRWV), but med-term (12m) attractiveness remains limited. **: Uncertain, decided not to rate them (but put them in tierlist photo as F). Some pure miners haven't fully pivot into HPC yet + too much contract uncertainty. Lot of people asked about updates post earnings, these are just personal thoughts based on weighted assessments of: a. Contract visibility and revenue certainty b. Resilience to macro tightening and credit conditions c. Balance sheet strength and margin profile d. HPC buildout risk (capacity execution and orchestration) e. Revenue growth trajectory (1–2 year horizon) f. Current market capitalization relative to revenue ramp and infrastructure value The whole Neocloud sector is compelling but some have clearly higher asymmetrical return over others as of Q3.
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因执行风险及融资压力降级$IREN，维持$NBIS跑赢大盘评级。
我的措辞非常严谨。你在阅读关于“引导性签约容量”的讨论时，跳过了“预期”一词。 因此，我再次重申上述观点，但提供更详细的解释： $IREN 最初的护城河是吉瓦(GW)级容量+垂直整合。$NBIS 的护城河是全栈(Full-stack)。 然而，Nebius 在长期吉瓦级容量上实现了与原本被认为是 $IREN 最大护城河的平价。 以下是有帮助的解释： - 短期：$IREN 0.66 GW 已连接 vs. $NBIS 22 GW 已连接。目前，$IREN 拥有更多前置容量。 - 中期：$NBIS 和 $IREN 之间的已连接电力差距正在缩小，$IREN 2026年为 1 GW，Nebius 为 1.4 GW。 - 长期：$IREN 规划 3 GW 电力扩张，$NBIS 规划 2.5 GW 签约电力扩张，Nebius 在已连接电力方面实现长期平价。 Nebius 管理层还将容量预期提高了 150%，并且有很大可能再次增加，以超越其他新云(Neocloud)公司。 此外，$IREN 最终转向全栈 IAAS 而非风险较低的托管(Colo)($CIFR, $WULF)，以追求更高的收入和利润率潜力，正如他们的 ER 所述。 但考虑到 $CRWV + $ORCL 在软件/编排方面的建设难度，与拥有现成且即插即用现有堆栈的 $NBIS 相比，$IREN 的新转型执行风险极高。 如果 $IREN 能做好这一点，其上行潜力巨大，但由于执行风险以及为 AI 云转型的容量变现所需融资面临的信贷收紧，我已将其降级。 如上所述，Nebius 拥有更大且多元化的客户群，这增强了收入可见性和防御性，因此我维持对 $NBIS 的跑赢大盘评级，因其具有非对称上行潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm very precise with my wording. You skipped over "expected" while reading discussions about guided contracted capacity. So reiterating what I've said above but with a longer explanation: $IREN's original moat was GW capacity + vertical integration. $NBIS's moat was full-stack. However, Nebius achieved long-term parity with GW capacity that was originally thought to be $IREN's biggest moat. Here's a helpful explanation: - Near term $IREN .66 GW connected vs. 22 GW connected with $NBIS. Today, $IREN has more frontloaded capacity. - Mid-term, The connected power argument is closing between $NBIS and $IREN with 1 GW 2026 for IREN and 1.4 GW for Nebius. - Long term, $IREN projects 3 GW power expansion, $NBIS projects 2.5 GW contracted power expansion with Nebius achieving longer term parity with connected power. Nebius management also raised capacity expectations by 150%, and there's a large chance it increases again to exceed other Neocloud companies. On top of that $IREN ended up pivoting to full-stack IAAS instead of lower-risk colo ( $CIFR, $WULF ) for higher revenue potential due to "higher revenue and margin potential" as per their ER. But looking at $CRWV + $ORCL buildout difficulty with software/orchestration, this immensely raises execution risk for a new pivot with $IREN compared to $NBIS, which has it down + plug and play with existing stack. $IREN has high upside potential if they get this right, but due to execution risk and credit tightening required for future financing for capacity monetization for their AI cloud pivot, I've downgraded it. Nebius also has a much larger diversified client base as mentioned above for both revenue visibility + defensibility, which is why I maintain outperform on $NBIS due to asymmetrical upside.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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CRWV基本面强但负债高，建议短线交易而非长持
手滑发错了，重读时觉得没必要编辑。$CRWV 超卖，550亿美元积压订单，Neocloud 领域龙头，有 $NVDA 背书，业绩不及预期源于数据中心(DC)延迟，仅将收入推迟至后续季度。但我不会长期持有（220亿积压订单来自OpenAI），相比同行其高债务利息侵蚀自由现金流(FCF)/利润率，且资产负债表薄弱（如18亿美元现金），在当前信贷收紧环境下更易受冲击（尤其与未获融资的OpenAI高度相关）。若现价$75持有我不会卖出，但也不会长期持有（仅做短线交易）。发帖时大概就在纠结这算哪类。
原推 ↗英文原文
Accident, didn't feel like editing the post when I read it again. $CRWV is oversold, $55B backlog, Neocloud sector leader, backstopped by $NVDA, miss due to DC delays, just shifts revenue down toward later quarters. However, I would not hold it ($22B of backlog is OpenAI), high debt interest compared to others that cut into FCF/margins, and low balance sheet eg. $1.8B cash which makes it more susceptible to credit tightening right now (especially with correlation to OpenAI with doesnt have the funding). I wouldn’t sell it if I had it now at $75, but I wouldn’t long term hold it either (short term trade). I was probably wondering what category that fits in when I made the post earlier.
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ALPD高息债及OpenAI订单增加长期风险，新云板块或有更好标的。
$ALPD 承担了以 9.25% 利率发行的垃圾债券(junk bonds)等极差的债务，并与 $CRWV 有关联，后者也有大量不良债务严重侵蚀利润率/自由现金流(FCF) + OpenAI（目前也缺乏资金）占据了大量积压订单 + 产能建设。这在很大程度上增加了长期风险，我尚未对 $APLD 的利息成本进行定量建模。可能还有更好的新云(neocloud)板块标的，但这并不意味着我看空它。对于 $S，我研究得还不够深入，无法给出好的观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
$ALPD took on really bad debt with junk bonds at 9.25% and is connected with $CRWV, which also has a lot of bad debt really cutting into margins/FCF + OpenAI (which also doesn't have the funds yet) taking up a lot of backlog + capacity buildout. That kind increases long term risks by a lot, I haven't done a quantitative modeling yet on $APLD from interest costs. There's probably better neocloud sector picks out ther but that doesn't mean I'm bearish on it. For $S, I haven't looked into it enough to give a good opinion.
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TSM盈利是AI核心指标，超大规模云厂商建设不受NVDA财报影响。
我的观点是，$TSM 的未来盈利（forward earnings）是迄今为止人工智能交易（AI trade）最大的指标，因为它涵盖了从 $GOOGL TPU 生产到 $AMZN，以及 $NVDA、$AMD 等所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers），且我们已看到其盈利和利润率大幅超出预期。 即使 $NVDA 的未来营收被大幅下调（我对此表示怀疑），也不会使 $MSFT 到 $IREN、$AMZN 到 $CIFR 等公司已签订的多年度算力（compute）积压订单失效。 我们已看到 Anthropic 与 $MSFT Azure 的算力协议（这将惠及 $NBIS、$IREN 和 $CRWV 等），$GOOGL 近日建设超 400 亿美元的数据中心（此前已与 $WULF、$CIFR/FluidStack 签署托管设施（colo）协议），$NVDA 的财报不会改变超大规模云服务商的建设步伐。 但它确实对整个 AI 交易产生重大影响，并直接影响 $NVDA GPU 板块（例如重度依赖 $NVDA 的 AI 云厂商）。
原推 ↗英文原文
My opinion is that $TSM forward earnings was the biggest indicator of the AI trade so far since they span from all hyperscalers such as $GOOGL TPU prod to $AMZN, as well as $NVDA, $AMD, and we've already seen them blow away earnings + margins. Even if $NVDA forward revenue is quoted heavily downward (which I doubt), it won't invalidate multi-year contracted compute backlog from $MSFT to companies like $IREN or $AMZN to $CIFR made already. We're already seeing Anthropic x $MSFT compute deals with Azure today (which flows down to $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV others), $GOOGL build out a $40B+ datacenter the other day (they've made colo deals with $WULF, $CIFR / fluidstack previously), and $NVDA earnings won't the change the hyperscaler buildout. But it does have a large impact on the overall AI trade as well + directly affect $NVDA GPU parts of the sector (eg. $NVDA heavy AI clouds).
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成长股因宏观恐慌错杀，机构逢低吸纳，是最佳买入窗口。
目前市场正目睹大多数成长股下跌。 过去5天： · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) 已失去近期涨幅。为何？ 目前我们看到机械性对冲下行，混合着类似加密市场的实时级联保证金清算。 这还混合了基于宏观的投降式抛售，包括对12月降息概率的半合理担忧、政府停摆导致的数据缺失，以及多家对冲基金发布的AI看空报告。 最重要的一点是：尽管许多个股基本面正在改善。 我们看到像： $NBIS 将ARR指引从分析师预期的$4B上调至$7-9B，本周却跌去26.85%。 我们也看到 $SNAP 在发布$4B惊喜的Perplexity交易后，吹爆营收指引，却失去了财报后的所有涨幅。 此时，我们正接近12月“圣诞老人行情”前的底部，机构正在暗池/大宗交易中买入杠杆交易者的比特币清算资金，转向$NBIS等优质股票。 如果未来增长和基本面放缓，此次下跌后的持续抛售是合理的。 然而，如果许多成长股的基本面完好，这次市场重置是自4月关税抛售以来，从$KRKNF到$ALAB的成长股最佳买入机会。 正如Robinhood [ $HOOD ]数据显示，散户在$IREN等热门股上，在$45-$50底部大量卖出，但在$MSFT交易后$80顶部买入。 散户往往在顶部追高，但在下跌后底部投降。 这是伟大的重置，而非导致熊市的持续崩盘。保证金清算后及弱势筹码向长期投资者转移，将带来新高。 话说回来：你认为目前被抛售最严重的高Beta股票是哪只？
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now. In the past 5 days: · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) have lost their recent gains. Why? Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets. This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds. The most important thing to note is that: This is despite improving fundamentals in many individual stocks. We've seen companies like: $NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week. and we've seen $SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal. At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades. If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted. However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off. As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80. Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop. This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs. That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?
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澄清全栈基础设施定义，辨析IREN与NBIS等技术层级差异。
我觉得你可能把自己搞糊涂了，我只是想澄清一下术语。你在第一条评论中说 $ORCL 不是全栈(full stack)，因为他们做了数据中心租赁(DC leasing)，而 $IREN 是全栈。 现在你从 $ORCL 转移话题，开始谈论 $IREN。 我们只是在争论“全栈”服务提供的语义定义。如果你想论证 $IREN 不是全栈，而是做垂直整合的基础设施，那部分也是成立的。 我提到的 $IREN + 软件编排，是指调度、监控分配、故障恢复、集群配置(cluster prov)、容器运行时(container runtime)等，这些是为 $MSFT 提供算力所需的 GPU 编排。 集群编排 + 配置层 + 购买 GPU 而不仅仅是托管机房(colo)，我认为这就是你提到的全栈基础设施。 如果你想再深入一步，$NBIS $CRWV 做的是模型 API、推理运行时（平台/运行时层），比如 $NBIS 的代币工厂(token factory)，这是更深层次的全栈服务，所以 $IREN 确实不算全栈。 这只是在争论全栈之上叠加更多软件的语义问题。如果你接受这个论点，那么对于 $IREN 来说确实如此，且因公司而异。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think you might be confusing yourself and I'm just trying to clarify the terms. You were saying $ORCL is not full stack because they did DC leasing and $IREN is full stack in your first comment. Now you're shifting from $ORCL and talking about $IREN. And we're just going into semantic definition on full-stack offerings and if you wanted to argue $IREN is not full stack but does vertically integrated infrastructure, then that's partially valid too. With $IREN + software orchestration I was referring to scheduling, monitoring allocation, fault recoveriy, cluster prov, container rutime, etc for GPU orchestation needed to deliver compute to $MSFT. Cluster orchestration +provisioning layer + buying GPUs rather than just colo I'd argue is full-stack infrastructure as you mentioned. If you wanted to go one-step deeper that $NBIS $CRWV does it's model APis, inference runetimes, (platform/runtime layer) like $NBIS token factory which is a deeper full-stack offering, so $IREN is not full-stack sure. This is just arguing semantics of more software on top of full-stack and if you go with that argument, sure with $IREN and it differs company-to-company.
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澄清NBIS与CRWV利润率差异，指出NBIS处于更优位置。
再次强调，情况非常微妙，我只是想指出你可能混淆或误解的地方。 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 拥有最高的标准化利润率(normalized margins)，但 $CRWV 之所以亏损，是因为其巨额债务利息。 如果从公式中剔除这一因素，并保持较高的利用率(utilization) + 改善导致利润率计算的复杂公式中的其他部分，那么 $NBIS 就处于那个“甜蜜点(sweet spot)”，这就是我试图表达的观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Again it’s very nuanced and I’m just trying to point out what you might be conflating or misunderstanding. $NBIS and $CRWV have the highest normalized margins but the reason why $CRWV is unprofitable is because of their large debt interest. If you remove that from the equation and maintain higher utilization + improve other parts of the multifaceted equation that leads to margin calculations, then that’s where $NBIS sits in that sweet spot was the point I’m making.
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澄清AI算力租赁中软件编排对利润率及自由现金流的关键作用。
将全栈定义为GPU之上的软件层是正确的，因此$ORCL符合这一标准。你之前混淆了垂直整合和全栈服务，这是两个截然不同的概念。 这是一个非常细微的差别，在讨论$NBIS和$CRWV时，你混淆了“纯GPU租赁”与包含编排能力的收入/利润率。 让我再次澄清： 对于$NBIS和$CRWV，人们说其收入来自纯GPU租赁是一种过度简化。以$NBIS为例，它包含一个优化GPU利用率和整体效率的管理软件栈，这就是为什么他们相比$IREN在与$MSFT的交易中获得了更好的价格/兆瓦(MW)优势。这不仅仅是任何人都能做的纯GPU租赁。 再次强调，$CRWV表示软件是其护城河，正是软件将$NBIS和$CRWV的利润率与$ORCL等市场其余部分区分开来（后者毛利率极低，例如14%）。 你可以通过购买GPU并出租来获得极高的营收数字，但如果不能转化为自由现金流(FCF)和利润，那就毫无意义。而这正是通过增加内部运营支出(opex)进行软件编排发挥作用的地方。
原推 ↗英文原文
That's a correct with full-stack as software as a layer on top of GPUs, so $ORCL would fit that mark. Earlier you were conflating vertically integrated and full-stack offering, which are two distinct terms. This is a very nuanced, with $NBIS, $CRWV you're confusing you're confusing "straight GPU leases" and revenue/margins + orchestration. Let me clarify again: For $NBIS, $CRWV, it's a oversimplification when people say it comes from straight GPU leases. When you use $NBIS for example, it includes a managed sfotware stack that optimizes GPU utilization and overall efficiency, which is why they got a better deal/MW compared to $IREN with $MSFT. It's not just straight GPU leases that anyone can do. Again $CRWV said software was their moat, it's what differentiates margins between $NBIS | $CRWV, and the rest of the market like $ORCL (which had incredibly low gross margins, eg. 14%). You can have the extremely high revenue numbers just by buying GPUs and leasing them out, but if it doesn't convert to FCF, profit, it doesn't mean anything. And that's where increasing internal opex with software orchestration comes in.
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澄清AI云全栈与裸金属区别，指出$IREN因执行风险派发股息。
我觉得你有点混淆了这些术语，让我澄清一下。 全栈服务(Full stack offering) = AI云 $NBIS $IREN $CRWV 裸金属(Bare Metal) = $CIFR, $WULF 类型的服务（AWS将自家GPU接入 $CIFR） $IREN 在决定为 $MSFT 交易购买数十亿美元GPU时，转向提供全栈AI云服务。这导致了因执行风险而产生的特别股息(DG)。 $IREN 在财报电话会上明确表示，他们之所以做全栈（包括GPU采购+软件编排），是因为“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”。 关于你提到的软件编排，它主要用于改善内部运营支出(opex)和利润率，但在面向客户的差异化方面略有优势。 与电力相比，GPU利用率和编排对最终利润率的影响巨大，我在之前的帖子中做过定量分析。 对于为 $NBIS 等支付裸金属服务的客户，他们购买的不仅是原始硬件，而是经过优化的软硬件堆栈。
原推 ↗英文原文
So think you're confusing the terms a bit, let me clarify. Full stack offering = AI Cloud $NBIS $IREN $CRWV Bare Metal = $CIFR, $WULF type offerings (AWS plugs in their own GPUs into $CIFR) $IREN is pivoted to doing a full stack offering AI cloud when they decided to buy billions in GPU for the $MSFT deal. This is what led to the DG due to execution risk. $IREN on their earnings call said it themselves that they did full-stack (including GPU purchases + software orchestration) due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns" For software orchestration that you mentioned, it's mainly for improving internal opex and margins, but is a slight advantage for customer facing differentiators. GPU utilization and orchestration plays an incredible difference in terms of final margins, when comparing to power and I did a quantitative breakdown in an earlier post. For customers that pay for bare metal for $NBIS and others, they are paying for an optimized hardware and software stack, not just raw hardware.
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因全栈执行风险高且难超巨头，作者做空IREN。
我不会将全栈(Full-stack)和垂直整合(Vertically integrated)混为一谈，我在谈论 $ORCL 时措辞非常精确。 $NBIS 采用混合模式以扩大利润率。 $IREN 的主要问题在于他们正在做全栈业务，其中软件编排(Software orchestration)是一个令人难以置信且被误解的护城河，但这将执行风险放大了数个数量级。 如果你做对了，你将拥有行业内最高的利润率/收入。但 $CRWV 花了数年和数十亿美元通过收购才做对，其CEO在电话会议上表示软件是他们的护城河。 很难让市场相信，$IREN 作为一个全新转型进入高性能计算(HPC) AI 云的公司，其全栈能力会优于 $CRWV 花数年构建的能力，甚至优于市值5000多亿美元的 $ORCL 至今未能做到的程度。这就是导致我做空(DG) $IREN 的持续执行风险。 但当然，如果他们能精准做到（这很难），那么其回报潜力将极其巨大。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't use full-stack and vertically integrated interchangeably, my wording is very precise when I talk about $ORCL. $NBIS does mixed to expand margins. The main issue with $IREN is that they're doing full-stack where software orchestration is an incredible and misunderstood moat and it increases execution risk by magnitudes. If you get it right you have the highest margins/revenue in the industry. But $CRWV spent years and billions in acquisitions to get it right and the CEO said on call that software was their moat. It's hard to convince the market that $IREN, which is doing a brand new pivot into HPC AI cloud, will have better full-stack that $CRWV spent years building and that $ORCL a $500B+ company failed ot do so far. This is the lingering execution risk that led me to DG $IREN. But of course if they get it spot-on (which is difficult), then it has incredibly high return potential.
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市场急跌时，$NBIS因隔离风险且基础稳固，具最大上行潜力。
感谢分享！在市场急跌、许多高贝塔（High Beta）成长资产下跌30%至50%之际，正是重新配置到基础稳固甚至得到强化的股票的时机。在AI数据中心领域，$NBIS 拥有最不对称的上行空间。尽管信用收缩或GPU执行风险影响了 $IREN 和 $CRWV 等新型云（Neo-cloud）企业，但 NBIS 相对隔离于这些担忧之外。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for sharing! 市場急落で多くの高ベータ成長資産が30〜50%下落している今、基礎が揺らがずむしろ強化された銘柄へ再配置する局面。AIデータセンター分野で最も非対称な上昇余地を持つのは $NBIS 。 信用収縮やGPU実行リスクで $IREN $CRWV などのネオクラウド企業が影響を受けた一方、NBIS はその懸念から相対的に隔離されている。
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澄清NBIS产能售罄非瓶颈，指出新云厂商执行与第三方依赖风险。
我仅针对之前关于 $NBIS 的错误框架进行回应，因为我也看到其他人有类似说法。它并未触及产能天花板，而是新上线的产能立即售罄，这是积极信号。不过你的后续观点是正确的，新云厂商在转换和连接产能方面面临执行风险，正如你提到的，$CRWV 是第三方依赖风险的良好案例研究。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm only addressing the earlier incorrect framing because I've seen it from others too when talking about $NBIS. It's not hitting capacity ceiling. It's immediately selling out of capacity they bring online, which is positive. Your follow up is correct though, it's an execution risk that Neoclouds face converting and connecting capacity and $CRWV is a good case study as you mentioned on 3rd party dependency risks.
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Nebius是纯新云AI基建标的，无债务与执行风险，具极高非对称上行潜力。
Nebius [ $NBIS ] 现价 $86.69，是剩余最纯粹的“新云”(Neocloud) 和 AI 基础设施非对称性机会。 这是收入最高的、未受 $CIFR | $WULF 及数据中心(Colo) 提供商影响的 Neocloud 标的，且没有以下问题： - 不像 $IREN、$ORCL 那样面临全栈执行带来的巨大不确定性。 - 不像 $CRWV、$APLD 等那样背负高额利息债务。 - 不像 $CLSK、$BITF、$WYFI、$SLNH 等那样在超大规模超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler) 合同上存在收入不确定性。 在 AI 板块因恐惧情绪蔓延而普遍下跌后： Nebius 依然推进：明年年化经常性收入(ARR) 中值为 $80 亿，现金超 $47 亿，企业客户多元化（包括 $META、$MSFT、$ACN、$SHOP、政府机构），高增长投资组合公司，以及经过验证的高利润率全栈业务。 鉴于需求极度旺盛、执行不确定性（利润率）以及与当前困扰市场的 OpenAI 合同依赖和信贷收紧问题相隔离： 在非对称上行潜力方面，没有任何标的能接近 Nebius。 你只需等待公司的执行落地。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left. This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no: - Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from full-stack execution. - High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face. - Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack. After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear: Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business. With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening: Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside. You are simply just waiting for company execution.
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分析NBIS高增长与融资优势，认为综合估值被低估。
我认为你的评论正好指出了 $NBIS 增长有多疯狂：从本季度1.46亿美元营收跃升至明年单季度21亿美元以上。 因此，我们应基于 $MSFT 合同（约190亿美元，5年）、$META（30亿美元，5年）、常规客户（Cursor、Shopify等）及政府合同来审视其未来增长（明年营收），而非当前数据。 他们像 AWS 一样提供全栈 AI 云；Nebius 获取 GPU 和基础设施初始资金的方式是股份销售（可转换票据，在138美元估值下稀释40亿美元）及随时出售2500万股。这远比 $CRWV 那样承担数十亿9%-10%利息更优，因为后者会随时间直接损害利润率。 这立即为其资产负债表增加数十亿（目前现金47亿美元），用于购买 GPU 等。 然而，规模化所需的大部分现金来自合同营收，$NBIS 毛利率达50-70%，预计 EBIT 为20-30%，是利润率最高的新型云厂商之一。 话说回来，若计入现有稀释（10%+可转换票据），再看47亿美元现金、来自 Clickhouse 等投资组合资产的70多亿美元净资产值(NAV)，以及明年80亿美元预计年化经常性收入(ARR)及其利润率，它看起来完全被低估。 但若仅看本季度营收，它看起来则被高估。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think your comment just pointed out at how crazy $NBIS growth is going from $146m revenue this quarter to $2.1B+ next year a quarter. So we look at future growth (next year), rather than current numbers based on $MSFT contract (~$19B, 5 years), $META ($3B, 5 years), and their regular clients (cursor, shopify, etc) + government contracts for revenue. They do full stack AI cloud like AWS; how Nebius gets their initial funding for GPUs and infrastructure is share sales (convertible notes, $4B dilution at $138) and 25m share sales anytime. This is much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time. This immediately adds billions into their balance sheet (they have $4.7B cash now), which they use on GPU purchases, etc. However, majority of the cash needed for scaling comes from contract revenue, $NBIS was doing 50-70% gross margins and projected 20-30% EBIT and is one of the highest margin neoclouds. That being said when you price in existing dilution (10% + convertibles), then look at the $4.7B cash on hand, $7B+ in NAV from portfolio company assets like Clickhouse, $8B projected ARR next year with thier margins, it looks completely undervalued. But if you look at it at just this current quarter's revenue, it looks overvalued.
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CRWV和ORCL的债务问题不影响NBIS，但财报前抛售剧烈。
@soulbiri1 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 在地理上都与 OpenAI 存在单一依赖关系，因此它们自身的债务问题不应影响 $NBIS。不过，正如你指出的那样，在财报发布前看到相关数据和分析师预测时，抛售行情确实令人咋舌。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Both $CRWV and $ORCL are geographically monogamous with OpenAI so their own debt problems shouldn’t affect $NBIS. But yeah sell-off was wild to watch when you point out the numbers and analyst projections before earnings.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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分析NBIS因财务结构具隔离性，高波动下部分抛售逻辑存疑。
是的，我在另一条推文中提到过信贷收紧以及来自 OpenAI 的传染效应，但 $NBIS 因其强劲的资产负债表和可转换票据结构，在这些方面似乎是最具隔离性的。这主要是非针对性的板块抛售，叠加主要影响 $CRWV、$ORCL 及相关公司如 $APLD 的结构性因素。但鉴于 Nebius 具有高贝塔值，其股价可能在一周内从 130 美元跌至 90 美元，但也可能在短时间内回到同一价格。如果从 GPU 折旧的看空论点来看，许多其他公司如 $CIFR 也是孤立的，因为它们只做数据中心托管(colocation)，所以很多抛售说不通。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure. It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time. If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.
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TSSI暴跌后若仍依附DELL供应链，或是买入良机。
哇，太恶心了——$TSSI 暴跌 -42.69%，抱歉如果你持有该股。这很可能是数据中心板块抛售的一部分，且看来他们因运营失误导致业绩不及预期。 我有一段时间没关注它了，但如果他们仍在搭 $DELL 的便车，那么这可能是一个不错的买入机会。未来营收不少，包括 2026 年 Q1-Q2 来自 $SMCI 的订单。SMCI 也提到了积压订单的延迟。此外，随着数据中心建设，$DELL 也有大量积压订单。 市场也重挫了 $CRWV，原因是建设短期延迟。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, disgusting -42.69% drop on $TSSI, sorry if you have that. It's likely part of the datacenter selloff and looks like they missed on earnings due to operational blunders. I haven't looked at it for a awhile, but if they're still piggybacking on $DELL, then it's likely a good buy. Lot of forward revenue, including with $SMCI coming in 2026 Q1-Q2. SMCI quoted backlog delays too. And lot of $DELL backlog with the DC buildout. Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout.
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驳斥AI板块恐慌，指出托管商受Mag7支持，是错杀买入机会。
这是$CRWV、$ORCL的OpenAI效应。市场在恐惧时是非理性的，将整个板块视为单一实体，而忽视了细微差别： GPU折旧——Burry的做空论点（硬件快速过时）： $CIFR、$WULF等完全不受影响，因为它们不购买GPU，而是做数据中心托管(Colo)。 信用风险——收紧使得所有资本密集型的AI建设成本更高且更脆弱。 $NBIS等...是孤立的（资产负债表强劲，可转换债务）。 未来收入泡沫，OpenAI没有足够的... $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF完全不受影响，因为它们由Mag7支持，而非OpenAI。 对某些人来说，这是令人发笑的买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's the $CRWV, $ORCL OpenAI Effect. Markets are irrational during fear and views the sector as a single entity vs. seeing the nuances: GPU Deprecation - Burry Short Thesis (rapid hardware obsolescence): $CIFR, $WULF, etc. Literally not affected since they don't buy GPUs and do colo. Credit Risk - tightening makes all capital-intensive AI buildouts more expensive and fragile. $NBIS and others... isolated (Strong balance sheet, convertible debt). Future Revenue Bubble with OpenAI not having enough $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF literally not affected since they're backed by Mag7, not OpenAI. Hilarious buying opportunity for some.
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IREN转全栈致风险激增，NBIS/CIFR基本面稳健却被板块性做空。
谢谢，是的，我之前做分级列表时将 $IREN 列为 S 级，但他们因试图通过购买数十亿 GPU 与 $CRWV 在全栈领域竞争而被大幅降级。许多 $IREN 持有者争论称托管(Colo)最盈利，但在 $IREN 的财报电话会上，他们明确表示因“更高的收入潜力和更强的回报”而购买 GPU 并从事全栈业务。构建软件层比人们想象的要难得多，$IREN 的执行风险急剧上升。与此同时，$NBIS 和 $CRWV 已经掌握了这一环节（根据其白皮书，$NBIS 胜过 $CRWV），但 Coreweave 在利息债务和 OpenAI 风波中搞砸了。不幸的是，我们看到整个板块被做空，尽管存在许多细微差别，例如 $CIFR 不受 GPU 贬值论点的影响。或者 $NBIS 拥有超过 5 年的 Mag7 及企业客户、强劲的资产负债表，且不受 $ORCL 及信贷收紧引发的 AI 泡沫 OpenAI 风波影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, yeah I had $IREN as S tier when I did my tierlist earlier but they got downgraded a lot because they ended up trying to compete vs $CRWV in the full-stack by buying billions in GPUs. A lot of IREN holders were arguing colo was most profitable, but in $IREN's earnings call, they literally said they were buying GPUs and doing the full-stack due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns". It's much, much harder building out the software layer than people think and the execution risk for IREN skyrocketed immensely. Meanwhile $NBIS and $CRWV already has that nailed down ( $NBIS wins vs. $CRWV per their whitepaper) but Coreweave messed up with interest debt + OpenAI drama. Unfortunately we're seeing a whole sector short despite many of the nuances eg. $CIFR not being affected by GPU depreciation arguments. Or $NBIS having Mag7 + enterprise customers over 5Y periods + strong balance sheet and not affected by AI bubble OpenAI fiasco with $ORCL + credit tightening.
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新云生态分化，NBIS领先，IREN执行存疑，市场尚未完全定价。
新云(Neocloud)并非赢家通吃，而是一个完整的生态系统，但并非所有公司都能成为AWS。 我们看到$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL在真正的“新云”领域竞争，这是一场最有利可图的全栈竞赛，旨在成为Azure/AWS。它们进行垂直整合、建设容量、购买GPU并进行编排，一些孵化企业也加入了竞争。 目前$NBIS是明确的赢家，拥有超大规模云厂商+企业客户+良好的资产负债表，只是时间问题；$CRWV深陷利息债务；$ORCL建设失败，且OpenAI是其最大且风险最高的积压订单。$IREN前景看好，但执行层面存在最大问号，因为其路径不同于人们预期的$CIFR模式，其容量和软件编排比人们预期的难得多（看看$ORCL和$CRWV在软件收购上花费的数十亿美元）。 然后是$CIFR、$WULF、矿工等，它们利用现有容量进行更安全的托管机房(Colo)业务，而像Amazon这样的超大规模云厂商则插入自己的GPU。我仍将其归为新云，但也许该单独分类了，不过它们不受Burry关于2年GPU淘汰论虚假言论的影响。 其余公司正在向高性能计算(HPC)转型，承诺未来X量的容量，但在信贷收紧背景下，为此转型融资越来越难。 随着近期一系列财报的发布，我们开始看到新兴赢家，这是好事。市场尚未定价，但只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
Neocloud isn't winner takes all, it's a whole ecosystem but not everything can become AWS. We're seeing $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL compete in the true "Neocloud", most profitable full stack race to become Azure/AWS. Doing vertical integration, building capacity, buying GPUs, and doing orchestration, and some incubants entering the race. So far $NBIS is the clear winner with hyperscalers + enterprises + good balance sheet in a matter of time, $CRWV is swamped with interest debt, $ORCL failed buildout so far and OpenAI as their biggest + risky backlog. $IREN is promising but they have the biggest question mark for execution since it's not the original approach like $CIFR people were expecting with their capacity and software orchestration is much harder than people expect (looking at $ORCL then $CRWV spending billions on software aqusitions). Then there's $CIFR, $WULF, miners, etc and others do safer colo with their existing capacity while hyperscalers like Amazon plugs in their own GPUs. I still put them as a Neocloud but I guess it's time to make a separate category, but these aren't as affected by Burry's false comments about 2Y GPU deprecation lol. And then we have the rest... undergoing the pivot to HPC, with X amount of future capacity promised and this is becoming increasingly difficult to raise money for this change from credit tightening. It's a good thing that we're starting to see emerging winners after the series of recent earnings. Market hasn't priced this in yet but it's a matter of time.
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信贷收紧利好资产负债表健康的T1新云厂商，当前抛售是买入良机。
你的分析精准捕捉到了二阶Alpha。信贷收紧削弱了弱势竞争对手融资新建产能+改善远期自由现金流/利润率的能力，从根本上制约了其增长。 这意味着资产负债表健康且无高额债务利息的T1新云厂商（如$NBIS和$CIFR）将享有更持久的利润率。这是一个巨大的长期溢价，市场目前定价错误+在此次抛售中尚未计入。 正如我们所见，Mag7的资本支出正在增加，但正流向$NBIS、$WULF等赢家。由于$CRWV和$ORCL引发的恐慌+信贷收紧，我们正目睹一场不分青红皂白的抛售，这反而是买入机会，实际上也是受冲击最小的新云厂商的竞争优势。
原推 ↗英文原文
Your analysis nails the second-order alpha. Credit tightening hurts the ability of weaker competitors to fund new capacity + improve forward FCF/margins, fundamentally constraining growth. This translates to more durable margins to the T 1 Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR with healthy balance sheets and no high debt interest. This is a massive long term premium the market is currently mispricing + hasn't priced in yet with this sell-off. Mag7 capex as we've seen is increasing, but it's funneling into winners eg. $NBIS, $WULF, etc. We're seeing an indiscriminate sell-off due to panic from $CRWV and $ORCL + credit tightening, and this is a buying opportunity and actually a competitive advantage for the least affected Neoclouds.
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AI股因信贷收紧恐慌抛售，建议转向有Mag7合同且低债的新云龙头。
我们正目睹 AI + 数据中心(DC) 股票实时崩盘，$IREN 本周下跌 37.88%，$NBIS 本月下跌 35.27%。 恐慌源于信贷收紧、高息债务、OpenAI 传染效应、宏观因素，以及最重要的：非理性恐惧。 以下是实时发生的情况： 1. 信贷收紧 - 像 $APLD 这样的公司未能成功发行债券（认购不足），最终发行了 23.5 亿美元的高收益债务融资——彭博社 11 月 14 日报道。债券以 97 美分的价格折价出售，收益率约为 10%。 该债券交易的风险主要与 Applied Digital 对 $CRWV 的依赖有关，后者占其合同收入的大部分。随着建设阶段机构关注度增加（例如 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的做空报告），数据中心更难筹集资金。 融资条件收紧影响了整个通过发行债务为自身建设融资的生态系统。 2. 高息债务 - 由于信贷收紧，$CRWV 为扩张而承担的劣质债务导致每年超过 10 亿美元的损失。这侵蚀了利润率和自由现金流(FCF)。 同样，$APLD 和其他以不良收益率筹集资金的公司也面临同样的未来问题，我们看到相关公司因风险管理而出售。 3. OpenAI 承诺的 1 万亿美元+ 资金没有余额支撑 - OpenAI 承诺超过 1 万亿美元的资本支出(capex)，其中 224 亿美元+ 流向 $CRWV，3000 亿美元+ 流向 $ORCL，他们正在为此建设产能。由于 OpenAI 手头没有余额并采取避险策略，市场现在对这些承诺持怀疑态度。 现在，我们看到这种建设从 Coreweave 等公司向下传染到 $CORZ 和 $APLD，这些公司在建设期间可能依赖 $CRWV 的未来收入。 4. $CRWV 是 AI 基础设施（以及部分 $ORCL）的行业领导者。当行业领导者抛售时，通常其他公司会跟随。 5. 12 月降息概率下降： 除了高息债务外，我们看到 12 月降息概率降至约 53% 的抛硬币水平。较高的利率使得像 $CRWV 这样背负利息债务的公司再融资以增强 FCF 变得困难。 _ 细微差别与重新定位： 我们看到全面抛售。然而，Mag7（$META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT）的资本支出和合同已确认，且盈利能力极强。 有一种简单的方法可以安全重新定位，以避免未来收入增长 + 债务周期的问题。 1. 配置与 Mag7 有合同可见性的新云(Neoclouds)： - $NBIS - 190 亿美元 $MSFT 交易，30 亿美元来自 $META，广泛的企业支持 - $CIFR - 55 亿美元与 $AMZN 的 Colo 交易，30 亿美元与 $GOOGL 的交易 - $WULF - 37 亿美元+ 与 $GOOGL 的交易等。 - $IREN - 90 亿美元与 $MSFT 的交易 我们可能会看到更多像 $SLNH, $CLSK 等投机性容量公司下跌，并整合到具有可见企业合同（未来收入下行风险低）的新云中。 2. 配置无/极低息债务且资产负债表强劲的新云： 像 $NBIS 这样的公司因拥有 47.9 亿美元的可转换票据现金及现金等价物，而与当前信贷市场波动隔离。或者像 $CIFR 这样拥有 12 亿美元现金的公司。 3. 避免与 OpenAI 有直接合同而非 Mag7 的公司。 _ 新云是 Mag7 AI 算力的骨干。这一论点没有改变，我们可能会看到一些规模达到 1000 亿美元+ 的公司成为下一个 AWS。 然而，我们看到由 $CRWV, $ORCL 和 OpenAI + 信贷收紧（部分由于 Burry 关于 GPU 折旧的错误机构做空报告）引起的广泛、不分青红皂白的抛售。 对于像 $NBIS 这样拥有 70-90 亿美元远期年度经常性收入(ARR) 和极强资产负债表的公司，这种抛售完全不合理。但对于其他投机性公司，这是一次必要的修正。 一句好话是“散户最后卖出，最后买回”。 如果你认为你可以卖出并在两周后回来，错过抛售后的一个或两个巨大反弹日可能会让你失去大部分恢复收益。 机构可能正在通过暗池/大宗交易购买更好的名字，例如 $NBIS，在这些清洗和保证金清算之后。我们还看到机构所有权从 38%-> 43-46%，尽管股价下跌。 利用这次机会购买好名字，并持有度过这些波动时期。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 13F 新云申报的机构流向评估： · Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 强烈正面 (7/10) · WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.5/10) · IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 非常负面 (3/10) · CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 高度正面 (8.0/10) · Coreweave ( $CRWV ): 🟡 中性 (5.5/10) · Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 高度正面 (9.0/10) _ TLDR 摘要更新： $NBIS · 机构所有权整体定量增长强劲，由坚实的长期机构买家以及量化基金和对冲基金的高活跃度驱动。 $WULF · 机构基础结构稳定且安全，以 Vanguard 和 BlackRock 等大型纯多头资产管理人为特征，他们对股票持有高信念。 $IREN · 所有权由高频交易员、做市商和量化基金（例如 Jane Street, Citadel）主导。这种结构被视为负面，因为它表明缺乏稳定的短期持有压力和长期机构缺乏信念。 $CIFR · 优秀的机构设置，以纳入主要指数（被动需求）和主动基金的强烈信念购买为标志，Alyeska 的大幅增持尤为突出。 $CRWV · 高交易量表明市场兴趣浓厚，但所有权目前高度集中，做市商存在显著，导致中性评分，暗示流向的风险/回报平衡。 $CLSK · 被认为是该组中最好的机构结构，结合了广泛支持的被动指数纳入和激进的、高信念的主动积累，表明定性风险最低。 _ 评论： 例如，“看多 - Jane Street + Citadel 拥有 x 的 $IREN ”（提示：这不是正面的）。尤其是当长期持有者如 FMR (Fidelity)：212 万股，大幅削减持仓时。 基金类型很重要，例如： 被动（最正面） Vanguard, BlackRock 指数, State Street, Geode 等 多头（正面） Fidelity, T. Rowe, Wellington, BIT 等 对冲基金（中性到正面） Alyeska, Coatue, Millennium 等 量化/做市商（负面） Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, SIG, Two Sigma 等 这是一个主观框架，用于仅从本季度评分流向有多正面（而非整体所有权）。
原推 ↗英文原文
We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month. Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear. Here's what happening real time: 1. Credit Tightening - Companies like $APLD failed to sell bonds (under subscribed) and ended up issuing $2.35B in high yield debt offerings - Bloomberg Nov 14th. The bonds were sold at 97 cents on the dollar, a significant discount, with a yield of approximately 10%. The bond deal's risk is primarily tied to Applied Digital's reliance on $CRWV, which accounts for a substantial portion of its contracted earnings. More institutional cation (eg. Burry short report on GPU depreciation) around the buildout makes it harder for DC's to raise funds. Tightening funding conditions affect the entire ecosystem that issue debt to fund their own buildout. 2. High Interest Debt - Due to credit tightening, bad debt, which $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF. Likewise, $APLD and others that raise funds with bad yields face the same future issues and we're seeing a selloff in related companies for risk-management. 3. $1T+ in OpenAI promised funding without balances - Over $1 trillion+ in capex was promised by OpenAI going to $22.4B+ $CRWV and $300B+ to $ORCL, which they are building capacity for. The market is now skeptical of these promises from OpenAI due to not having the balances on hand and taking a risk-off approach. And now we're seeing contagion on that buildout from companies like Coreweave spread down to $CORZ and $APLD during this buildout that might rely on $CRWV for future revenue. 4. $CRWV is a sector leaders of AI infrastructure (and partially $ORCL). When the sector leader sell-off, usually others follow suit. 5. Rate Cut odds in December Fall: On top of the high interest debt, we're seeing rate cut odds in December drop to a coinflip ~53%. Having higher interest rates make it trouble for interest-debt burdened companies like $CRWV to refinance for stronger FCF. _ THE NUANCE and Repositioning: We're seeing a broad sell-off across the board. However, Capex and contracts from Mag7 ( $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT ) are confirmed with their extreme profitability. There's an easy way to safely reposition to avoid issues with future revenue growth + debt cycles. 1. Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: - $NBIS - $19B $MSFT deal, $3B from $META, broad enterprise support - $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL - $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL and more. - $IREN - $9B deal with $MSFT We will likely see more capacity speculative companies like $SLNH, $CLSK, and others fall off and consolidation into Neoclouds with visible enterprise contract (low downside risk of future revenue). 2. Position into Neoclouds with no/extremely low interest debt and high balance sheets: Companies like $NBIS are isolated from current credit market volatility as they have $4.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents from convertible notes. Or companies like $CIFR with $1.2B in cash. 3. Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7. _ Neoclouds are the backbone of Mag7 AI compute. This thesis has not changed and we'll likely see some scale to $100B+ companies in the future as the next AWS. However, we're seeing a widespread, indiscriminate sell-off caused by $CRWV, $ORCL, and OpenAI + credit tightening (partially due to incorrect institutional short reports from Burry on GPU depreciation). These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. But for other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction. A good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”. If you think you can sell and come back two weeks later, missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains. Institutions are probably buying the better names right now eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. We've also seen institutional ownership go from 38%-> 43-46% despite share prices dropping. Use this as a buying opportunity for good names, and hold through these periods of volatility.
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关注APLD高息发债风险，认为NBIS等公司资产负债表健康。
@TalentActivity 实际上，我可能还需要重新审视一下与 $CRWV 相关的承包商，特别是 $APLD，如果他们正在以 10% 的收益率出售债券（刚刚来自彭博社的消息）。 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 的资产负债表仍然健康。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TalentActivity Actually I probably need to revisit this one more time in terms of the contractors with $CRWV, namely $APLD if they're selling bonds at 10% yield (just now from Bloomberg). $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF balance sheets are still healthy.
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基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
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AI板块遭无差别抛售，基本面改善的个股如NBIS现买入机会。
这是多种因素的混合影响： - 对高贝塔值(High-Beta) + AI 股票的无差别抛售 - 政府停摆延长 - 12 月降息概率 - 因折旧会计处理增加的做空头寸 一些像 $NBIS 这样的股票尽管创下历史新高盈利且基本面积极，仍受板块抛售影响。 另一些像 $CRWV 的股票因延迟导致远期盈利不及预期，其短期表现更易于理解。 总体而言，来自像 $CIFR（与 AWS 合作）和 $WULF（与 Anthropic 合作，今日宣布 500 亿美元建设计划）等 Neoclouds 公司的财报(ER)和更新非常积极。 如果像 NEbius 这样的股票在基本面改善的情况下被抛售，那就是买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's a mix of: - indiscriminate selling of high-beta + AI stocks - government shutdown extensions - rate cut December odds - increased shorts from depreciation accounting Some like $NBIS were affected by sector selloff despite record high earnings and positives to fundamentals. Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays. Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS and $WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today. If stocks like NEbius get sold off despite improving fundamentals, it's a buying opportunity.
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NBIS业绩超预期且基本面与股价脱节，作者今日重仓买入并看好其超越CRWV。
$NBIS 超出预期，我没看到任何分析师模型预测 $70-90 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入），这简直是令人咋舌的增长（同比增长 700%+）。 目前市场出现无差别抛售，但： - 政府停摆可能今天结束 - $NBIS 将于 11 月 24 日因纳入指数带来资金流入 - 12 月圣诞行情 - 12 月前有 70% 的概率降息 供参考：最看多的分析师预计 ARR 约为 30 亿，而 Nebius 指引是该数字的 2.5 倍。目前基本面与股价脱节，我个人今天已重仓买入。 我认为 Nebius 将在下一个增长/复苏周期中超越 $CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS exceeded expectations, I haven't seen any analyst model $7-9B ARR, which is just mind blowing growth (700%+ Y/Y). Indiscriminate selloff right now but: - Gov shutdown likely ending today - $NBIS inflow from index inclusion 24th Nov - Santa rally Dec -70% rate cut into Dec FYI the most bullish analysts were projecting ~3B ARR, and Nebius guided 2.5 times that. Fundamentals are detached from stock price right now and I personally loaded up today. I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle.
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Northland上调目标价，NBIS业绩超预期，作者逢低加仓。
Northland 刚刚将其目标价(PT)上调至 $211（跑赢大盘），但这 $6 的涨幅可能只是随机波动。正如你所说，我们两人都在建模约 $50-70 亿 ARR，而 $NBIS 刚刚凭借强劲的财报表现，将指引提升至 $70-90 亿。不幸的是，从 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的板块性抛售正在发生，但基本面与股价已脱节，本周跌幅达 20%。我利用这次机会在 $96 加仓。一家年增长率超过 700% 的企业显然定价错误，主要受宏观恐慌和板块回调影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
Northland ended up increasing their PT to $211 (Outperform) just now, but the $6 increase is likely just a random bump. As you mentioned, we both were modelling ~$5-7B ARR, and $NBIS just strongly blew out numbers with their earnings to a guided $7-9B figure. Unfortunately there's a sector short/sell-off from $CRWV to $IREN but fundamentals are detached from stock price right now with the 20% selloff this week. I ended up using this time to increase my position at $96. A business growing from 700%+ Y/Y is definitely not being priced correctly and largely off of fear from broader macro and sector correction.
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新云财报解读及反驳伯里GPU贬值论，强调新云逻辑强劲。
今日新云(Neocloud)财报 + 为何迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)错了： $WULF - 财报超预期(ER)表现积极，来自520兆瓦(HPC)算力的高性能计算(HPC)容量总合同价值(TCV)达170亿美元。 在德州成立240兆瓦合资企业(JV)用于数据中心(DC)扩张 + 50亿美元融资。 不像$CIFR与AWS的财报超预期那样特别，只是确认（如交易融资）和站点开发。 $CRWV - 因第四季度远期收入较低，财报超预期表现短期看空。 556亿美元积压订单（其中224亿美元来自OpenAI）。小幅盈利超预期13.6亿 vs 12.9亿（同比129%），EBITDA利润率（61%）。 股价因数据中心延迟下跌，这损害了2025财年（50.5-51.5亿 vs 共识52.9亿）。运营利润率下调，正如我预测的那样，因为债务融资产生的利息（~10亿+利息/年）侵蚀了利润率，而其他新云没有同样的问题。 话虽如此，这是一次性问题，鉴于市场是前瞻性的，我们可能会看到任何抛售在下个季度后被买回。 _ 至于迈克尔·伯里关于GPU贬值的争论：他完全错了，但在低估这一点上部分正确。 他的普遍主张：芯片在2-3年产品周期上的资本支出(Capex)不应导致使用寿命的延长 -> 在谷歌的案例中，他们7年前的TPU正以100%的利用率运行。重复一遍，是7年前。 Amin Vahdat表示，谷歌目前生产中有七代TPU硬件，且“七到八年前的TPU拥有100%的利用率”。 “谷歌称TPU需求超过供应，声称8年前的硬件迭代‘100%利用率’” - 数据中心动态 -> 在英伟达(Nvidia)的案例中，A100（PCIe和SXM4变体）仍在运行。它们于2020年推出。现在是2025年。旧型号保持其价值并仍然提供收益。它们不会仅仅因为是补充新模型的附加组件就被核销。 英伟达的A100可以划分为隔离实例以最大化利用率，旧一代加速器仍用于推理或低优先级任务进行货币化，而不是像他所声称的那样被核销。它们实际上具有残值，5年后仍能高价转售。 他在保质期问题上完全错了，但在某些超大规模云服务商如何拉伸利用率概念以证明激进资本支出方面可能是正确的。 这是一个微妙的论点，但新云逻辑依然完好且比以往任何时候都更强。
原推 ↗英文原文
Neocloud Earnings Today + Why Michael Burry is Wrong: $WULF - ER was positive, $17B TCV from 520 MW HPC capacity. 240 MW JV in Texas for DC expansion + $5B financing. Nothing special like $CIFR ER with AWS, just conf (eg. deal finances) and site dev. $CRWV - ER was bearish near term due to lower forward revenue Q4. $55.6B backlog ($22.4B from OpenAI). Slight earnings beat 1.36B vs. 1.29B (129% Y/Y), EBITDA margins (61%). Stock dropped on datacenter delay, this hurts FY 2025 (505-5.15B vs. 5.29B consensus). Operating margins was lowered, which I predicted due to debt financing with interest (~1B+ interest/year) that cuts into margins, while other Neoclouds don't have that same issue. That being said this was a one-off issue, and we'll likely see any sell-off bought back after next quarter since markets are forward looking. _ As for Michael Burry arguing on GPU deprecation: he's completely wrong, but partially right about understating it. His general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives -> in Google's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are being run at 100% utilization lol. Repeat 7 years ago. Amin Vahdat, said that Google currently has seven generations of its TPU hardware in production, and that the “seven- and eight-year-old TPUs have 100 % utilization.” "Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics -> in Nvidia's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They don't just get nuked since it's an add-on to compliment newer models. Nvidia’s A100 can be partitioned into isolated instances to maximize utilization, and older-gen accelerators are still monetized for inference or lower-prio tasks rather than getting nuked as what he claims. They actually have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later. He's completely wrong here on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex. It's a nuanced argument but Neocloud thesis remains in tact and stronger than ever.
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分析CRWV收购失败及高息债务劣势，对比NBIS优势并指出政府合同潜力。
对于 $CRWV 而言，问题在于其收购 $CORZ 未能获批。Core Scientific 本应比那 90 亿美元的收购价带来更大价值。若能在其现有合同基础上，通过收购为全栈模型（Full Stack Model）增加更多 GW 级算力，将是极度看涨（omega bullish）的利好。 Coreweave 每年还有超过 10 亿美元的利息债务，这对自由现金流（FCF）和利润率造成了极大拖累（相比之下，$NBIS、$CIFR、$IREN 使用的是可转换票据）。 $NBIS 已经实现了 $CRWV 的全栈垂直整合，但拥有更高的利用率、更好的编排/性能（根据其白皮书）、无巨额债务利息以及高积压订单，因此市场看到了其他风险更低、上行空间更大的替代方案。 不过，如果 $CRWV 获得美国政府合同批准，那将是另一个巨大的看涨催化剂。但我们已经看到像与 $META 签订的 140 亿美元这样的大型合同积压订单，然而其债务利息确实荒谬。
原推 ↗英文原文
For $CRWV it was $CORZ acquisition failing to get approved. Core scientific would have delivered so much more value than that 9B price tag. Having more GW capacity added to their full stack model (on top of their existing contract with them), would have been omega bullish with the acquisition. Coreweave also has $1B+ in interest debt a year, which is an extremely big drag on FCF + margins (compared to $NBIS, $CIFR, $IREN with did convertible notes). $NBIS already achieved what $CRWV did with full-stack vertical integration, but higher utilization + better orchestration/performance (as per their whitepaper) + no massive interest on debt + high backlogs, so markets see other lower risk, higher upside, alternatives emerging. If $CRWV get approved for US Gov contracts though, that would be another huge catalyst upside. But we already have visibility into large contracted backlogs like $14B with $META but the debt interest is just ridiculous.
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Neocloud获微软AWS大额订单，算力需求旺盛，板块极度看涨。
Neocloud 名单已更新： $IREN - IREN 与微软达成 97 亿美元 GPU 云合同，包含 20% 预付款，将在五年内部署 NVIDIA GB300。 $CIFR - CIFR 与亚马逊云科技 (AWS) 达成 55 亿美元、15 年的租赁协议。 随着超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的新合同涌入，Neocloud 板块变得极度看涨，这显示了对算力 (Compute) 的无限需求。 我在原始论点中预计 $ORCL、$META 和 $AMZN 会达成交易，看来 AWS 已与 $CIFR 入场，预计与其他 Neocloud 的交易也会接踵而至。$META 最近也与 $CRWV 签署了 140 亿美元的交易，从其不断扩大的 AI 资本支出 (Capex) 来看，我们可能会看到更多与 Neocloud 的交易。 这对整个板块来说都是极度看涨的。 我附上了我的个人梯队排名 (Tierlist) 供娱乐，但随着有更多时间分析交易和利润率，数据中心/矿工板块可能会迎来全面重评。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Neocloud List got updated: $IREN - IREN secured a $9.7B GPU cloud contract with Microsoft, including 20% upfront prepayment, to deploy NVIDIA GB300s over five years. $CIFR - CIFR secured a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Neocloud sector just got insanely bullish with new contracts coming in from hyperscalers and this just shows insatiable demand for compute. I expected $ORCL, $META, and $AMZN to make deals in the original thesis and looks like AWS entered the fray with $CIFR, with likely more deals incoming with other Neoclouds. $META also signed a $14B deal with $CRWV recently and from their ER scaling AI Capex, we'll likely see other deals with Neoclouds. This is insanely bullish across the whole sector. I attached my personal tierlist for fun, but we'll likely see a re-ratings in data centers/miners across the board when there's more time to analyze deals and margins.
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分析超大规模云服务商自建ASIC对NBIS等公司的长期下行风险及合约保护机制。
是的，长期来看，超大规模云服务商自建ASIC和产能，且在合约容量结束后不再使用Neoclouds，这是$NBIS等公司的下行风险。我在最初的投资逻辑中提到，$CRWV、$NBIS几乎充当$NVDA的“云业务部门”，有助于抵御来自超大规模云服务商的利润率压缩并实现业务多元化。这就是为什么超大规模云服务商将收入导向这些小型公司。但总体而言，如果你的合约条款是10年或15年，你会拥有更多保护，但收入增长幅度较小（例如$NBIS与$MSFT的交易，收入在1-2年内从约11亿美元ARR增长至38亿美元以上ARR）。话虽如此，那是4-5年后的事，目前推测为时过早。通常你会根据新信息的出现，按月进行重估或审视风险与回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah longer term that's the downside risk for $NBIS and others in terms of hyperscalers building out ASICs and capacity and not using Neoclouds after contracted capacity ends. I said in my original thesis that $CRWV, $NBIS and almost serve as $NVDA's cloud arm, and helps defend against margin compression from hyperscalers and diversify their business. That's why hyperscalers funnel revenue down to these small guys. But generally, you have more protection if your contract terms are 10Y or 15Y but less revenue ramp. (eg. with $NBIS $MSFT deal, revenue ramps to $3.8B+ ARR in 1-2 years on top of their ~1.1B ARR) That being said, that's 4-5 years from now, it's too far forward to speculate as of now. Usually you do things like re-rate or examine risk vs. reward month-by-month whenever new information comes out.
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对比不同数据中心租赁期限对收入爬坡及长期竞争力的影响。
我删除了之前的评论，因为 X 平台有 Bug 导致时间线混乱： 简而言之： $APLD 建设具有显著电力容量的数据中心，然后将基础设施租赁给客户。目前有 $110 亿的 $APLD 和 $CRWV 针对 Ellendale 园区的 15 年租赁协议。 Polaris Forge 2 约为 200+ MW，合同价值 $50 亿。从交易者视角来看，我不太看好较长的合同期限（例如 $CIFR | $WULF 的 10 年），相比 $NBIS | $MSFT 的 5 年合同，因为前者收入爬坡较慢且成本存在变数。但这并非真正的利空，因为如果你投资的是 1 年周期，你会希望收入爬坡尽可能快。 但如果看 FluidStack $WULF 的 15 年合同协议，它为公司在长期内提供了更多保障；反之，如果像 $MSFT 这样的超大规模云厂商最终自建容量和定制 ASIC，那么一些 Neocloud 公司在 4 年后可能会陷入困境。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm deleting my earlier comment to this since X is bugged and it's messing up my timeline: But TLDR from before: $APLD builds data-centers with significant power capacity and then lease that infrastructure to customers. So there's the $11B $APLD, $CRWV lease right now over 15 years for Ellendale campus. Then there's Polaris Forge 2 is ~200+ MW with a $5B contract. Not much of a fan of longer contract terms (eg. 10 Years $CIFR | $WULF), vs. 5 Year $NBIS | $MSFT, since slower revenue ramp and changes of costs, but this is coming from a trader's perspecitve. Not as an actual negative when I talk about longer contract terms since if you’re investing for 1Y timeframe, you’d want the fastest revenue ramp possible. But if you look at fluidstack $WULF contract agreements eg. 15 years it provides a lot more guarantees for a company over time, vs. if hyperscalers like $MSFT end up building out their own capacity and custom ASICs then some Neoclouds might be in trouble after 4Y
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补充 $CORZ 分析：Coreweave 长期合同改善现金流并资助资本支出。
你说得对，我漏掉了 $CORZ。感谢指出，也感谢 @cazenove_uk 等人的提醒。 鉴于 $CRWV 的合并前几天已终止，现在应将其视为独立实体看待，不知怎么竟疏忽了。我会在下一篇 2/2 帖子中补充。 $CORZ 与 $CRWV 签署的 12 年期 87 亿美元 数据中心托管(Colo) 合同带来了更可预测的现金流，且约 80% 的资本支出(Capex)（约 1.96 亿美元/第三季度 2.445 亿美元）由 Coreweave 资助，这种模式对股东远比可转换债券或侵蚀利润的有毒债务利息友好。 此外，拥有约 13-15 GW 容量，Coreweave 仅占用 500 MW，且收入能抵消资本支出，这相当有趣。
原推 ↗英文原文
You’re right, I missed $CORZ. Thanks for pointing it out, and appreciate others like @cazenove_uk for that too. Should just treat it as standalone now given $CRWV merger got terminated the other day, don’t know how it slipped my mind. I’ll add that in the next 2/2 post. $8.7 billion colo with $CRWV over 12 years gives $CORZ more predictable cashflows, and majority of capex ~80% ($~196m/ $244.5 million Q3) or so was funded by Coreweave, which is a lot nicer of a model for shareholders than convertible debt or toxic debt interest cutting into margins. Also, with ~1.3-1.5 GW capacity, Coreweave only taking up 500 MW, and revenue offsetting capex, it’s quite interesting.
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确认CRWV行使期权锁定110亿，将更新文章
@squarecapital3 @DeepValueBagger 是的，你说得对，$CRWV 行使了 150 兆瓦的期权，因此 110 亿美元已锁定，加上 160 亿美元的积压订单收入。我会更新我的下一篇文章，感谢指正。
原推 ↗英文原文
@squarecapital3 @DeepValueBagger Yeah you’re right, $CRWV exercised the 150 mw option so $11b is locked in with $16B backlog revenue. I’ll update my next post, thanks for the correction
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AI工具在分析Neoclouds时存在缺陷，作者更倾向手动整合信息并采用估值建模。
我发现像 @AskPerplexity、Grok 等 AI 工具在研究 Neoclouds（新型云服务商）和每日新闻频发的板块时，结果往往极不准确。它们会遗漏大量细节，例如 $NBIS 的白皮书中有关于与 $CRWV 等对比的利用率信息，这些数据对 AI 不可见（暗示了 GPU 利用率带来的毛利率增长）。当 Meta 与 $CRWV 达成 140 亿美元交易，且上周 $AMZN、$MSFT 等发布财报显示 AI 资本支出增加时，AI 可能会忽略那些未直接提及 $NBIS 但暗示超大规模云厂商交易增加的顺风因素。或者几天前的额外降息提振了涉及债务的 Neoclouds 的前瞻性盈利。亦或是关于 Clickhouse 等子公司或投资组合公司的新信息，AI 可能无法将其串联起来。FinX 散户在将这些信息拼凑成前瞻性增长方面做得更好，鉴于 AI/Neocloud 的总可寻址市场(TAM)具有高度投机性和快速增长，很难建模。这也是我采用估值方法的原因（在我之前关于 $NBIS 如何达到 1000 亿美元市值的帖子中），但如果看 $UPWK 等更标准的业务，我的估值建模方式则不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've actually found AI tools like @AskPerplexity, Grok and others to be extremely off when looking at Neoclouds and sectors with new news every day. They miss a lot of details, eg. with $NBIS you have utilization information from Whitepapers comparing Nebius to $CRWV and others that aren't publicly viewable to AI (which insinuated growing gross margins from GPU utilization). When Meta struck a $14B deal with $CRWV and you have earnings report last week from $AMZN, $MSFT, and others you have increased capex spend into AI, and they might miss tailwinds that don't mention $NBIS directly with increased changes of more hyperscaler deals. Or when there's an additional rate cut a few days ago that boosts forward earnings especially with Neoclouds that involve debt. Or when there's new information about subsidiaries or portfolio companies like Clickhouse that AI might put 1+1 together with. FinX retail does a lot better job with piecing all this information together into forward growth and AI/Neocloud TAM is really hard to model given how speculative and rapidly growing it is. That's kinda why I go with valuation approaches (in my previous post on how you get to $100B MC for $NBIS), but if you look at $UPWK and more standard businesses. I do valuation modelling differently
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感谢粉丝，强调深度研究对评估新型云服务商的重要性。
@moninvestor 谢谢！ 是的，这篇内容花了我不少时间撰写，但我一直认为更有实质性的内容能帮助散户在审视从 $IREN 到 $CRWV 的 Neoclouds（新型云服务商）时做出更明智的决策。 不过，财报发布后我可能得更新大量信息，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@moninvestor Appreciate it! Yeah this took me quite a bit of time to writeup, but I always thought more substance would help retail make more informed decisions when looking at Neoclouds from $IREN to $CRWV. I'll probably have to update a lot of information after earnings though lol
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对比IREN与矿企估值，指出HPC转型执行风险及高估值隐忧。
关于 $IREN，人们不断提出论点：~3 GW 产能对应 ~170 亿美元市值，理应值 X 市值。 $RIOT 也有类似产能：1GW Corsicana，700MW Rockdale，加上其他，总计 ~3GW 产能（BTC 挖矿 + 管道项目合计）。~70 亿美元市值。 $MARA 也有 1.7GW，加上 3+ GW 管道项目。~67 亿美元市值。 $IREN 确实相比其他两家转向了高性能计算(HPC)，但我们肯定已经看到 480%+ 的涨幅已将其定价。 公允的观点是，H.C. Wainwright 的分析师表示“IREN AI 云业务已达到非理性繁荣的程度”。 此前我们仅关注产能，但市场将开始对利润率(execution risk)和执行风险进行定价。 取决于你的判断：你认为 $IREN 能否像 $CRWV 花费数年数十亿美元那样执行并扩展至 HPC？或者当 $ORCL 这样 7500 亿美元的超大规模云厂商以 14% 毛利率都未能做到时，他们能否做到？ 此外，如果那么容易，Riot 和 Mara 及其他高 GW 产能矿企早就全面转向 HPC 并达到类似的市值重估了。 这是人们不喜欢谈论的下行风险。然而，上行空间在于你提到的产能/基础设施 = 更高的收入潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
With $IREN people keep making the argument about ~3 GW capacity at a ~17B marketcap, deserves to be X marketcap. $RIOT has a similar capacity too: 1GW Corsicana, 700MW Rockdale, and misc with ~3GW capacity (total if you combine BTC mining + pipeline). ~7B marketcap $MARA also has 1.7GW with 3+ GW pipeline as well. ~6.7B marketcap $IREN did make the HPC pivot compared to the other two but we've definitely seen that priced in with the 480%+ runup. Fair note is that analysts from H.C. Wainright have said "IREN AI cloud business has reached a point of irrational exuberance." Before, we looked solely at capacity, but markets will start pricing in margins and execution risk. It's up to your decision whether you think $IREN can execute and scale into HPC like $CRWV spent years and billions doing. Or if they can do so when $ORCL, a 750B hyperscaler failed to do so with 14% gross margins. Also if it were that easy Riot and Mara and other high GW capacity miners would have just full-sent HPC and would reach similar marketcap re-ratings too. That's the downside risk people don't like talking about. However, upside is that capacity/infrastructure = higher revenue potential that you mentioned.
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HPC矿企表现分化，资金从传统矿企转向新云，IREN相对抗跌。
这不仅仅是关于 $IREN，而是关乎高性能计算(HPC)矿企。如果非要比较，$IREN 的表现可能更为出色，尤其是与 $CLSK、$BITF 等其他公司相比。 例如： $NBIS: +7.25% $CIFR: -7.15% $RIOT: -11.5% $BITF: -19.92% $CLSK: -11.63% $IREN: -5.54% $BTBT: -11.51% 再次强调，这可能与比特币价格的多重因素有关。但最近很明显，它们之间出现了分化，而通常情况下它们会同向波动（如 $NBIS、$CRWV 具有较低的贝塔值）。 我会将叙事重心的变化——从利润率转向产能——作为矿企抛售以及资金整合进某些新云(Neoclouds)的原因之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
This isn't just about $IREN, it's around HPC miners. If anything IREN is probably one of the more exceptional performers, especially vs. $CLSK, $BITF, and others. EG. $NBIS: +7.25% _ $CIFR: -7.15% $RIOT: -11.5% $BITF: -19.92% $CLSK: -11.63% $IREN: -5.54% $BTBT: -11.51% Again, it's probably multi-faceted around Bitcoin prices. But it's pretty apparent as of recently, there's been divergence when normally they would move together (with $NBIS, $CRWV) lower beta. And I'd cite narrative changes around margins vs. capacity being a part of miner sell-off and consolidation into certain Neoclouds.
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市场定价重心从产能转向利润率，导致全栈云与矿企走势分化。
所以我认为你们误解了 @SathyeshBhat @midlevelcruiser 观点的细微差别。在资本市场开始关注产能建设(capacity buildout)之前，我们曾看到全线普涨。直到**最近**（上周左右），我们才开始看到 $CRWV、$NBIS 以及来自矿企的“全栈”(full-stack) Neoclouds 出现分化。它们通常会同涨同跌，且波动率(beta)较低的 Nebius 相比 $IREN 等标的波动更小。这只是评论：目前市场可能开始更多地将规模化后的利润率(margins at scale)而非单纯的产能纳入定价，我们开始看到不同板块的标的走势出现分化。随着公司高管今天发文强调全栈的重要性，这一趋势也愈发明显。但总体而言，你说得对，短期时间框架并不重要，我也并未将其作为事实依据。
原推 ↗英文原文
So I think you're missing the nuance of the point @SathyeshBhat @midlevelcruiser. Before markets cared about capacity buildout and we saw the major runup on everything across the board. Only **just recently** last week or so, we're starting to see a divergence with $CRWV, $NBIS and "full-stack" Neoclouds from miners. They would normally move up/down together, and Nebius which is lower beta than the others would move less than $IREN for example. This is just commentary that as of now, markets are possibly starting to price in margins at scale more than capacity than say 1 month ago and we're starting to see more things move in different baskets. And it's becoming more apparent too with executives from the companies pointing out why full-stack matters with posts today. But generally you're right short timeframes don't matter and I'm not using it as a fact.
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看好全栈新云$NBIS利润率优势，减持矿工股。
市场开始定价： 像 $NBIS 这样的 AWS 式全栈新云（Neocloud）与 $CIFR、$BITF、$CLSK 等矿工之间的分化。 这就是我卖出 $IREN、$WULF 等并集中持仓 Nebius 的原因。 为什么？ 💹 利润率 > ⚡️ 产能。 就在今天： Nebius 的 CTO 表示： “市场上几乎没有真正的‘新云’。所谓的新云不过是一堆裸金属服务器，上面堆砌了大量第三方软件。” 耸人听闻？完全不是——如果你认真对待“云”这个概念，而不仅仅是堆砌硬件盒子。 Danila 解释了裸金属运营商很快就会发现 Nebius 已经在大规模层面解决的那些挑战。 这正是我指出 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称上行潜力的原因，因为矿工在规模化时可能会在利润率上挣扎。 我们还看到 Nebius 联合创始人 Roman Chernin 在《福布斯》的文章中总结，AI 经济需要一种新的、全栈的、AI 原生基础设施，而不是拼凑起来的系统： “你可以从一个供应商购买机架，将它们连接起来……但从长远来看，经济性、灵活性和速度取决于你是否控制自己的全栈。” “如果你控制全栈，你就控制产品、性能和经济效益。” _ 这并不意味着像 $WYFI、$APLD、$WULF 等其他高性能计算（HPC）公司没有增长空间，新云板块才刚刚开始上涨（尤其是当我们看到 $META 或 $AMZN 的财报时）。 然而，在投机阶段，我们已经为矿工的产能建设定价——大多数已经上涨了 50–200%+。 但谈到执行层面，那些控制全栈的人将在利润率上获胜。 我们看到 $CRWV 亲自体会到了这一点，花费数十亿美元进行软件收购，利用率仍低于 $NBIS（根据白皮书）。 我们也看到一家市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云厂商（Oracle）未能建立其全栈，毛利率仅为 14%。 如果 Oracle 都无法完全整合其软件，CoreWeave 仍在花费数年时间尝试这样做，小型矿工如何转型？ “仅 Type-1”运营商的论点将艰难地发现规模化时的利润率压缩是什么样子的。 正如《福布斯》文章总结： “归根结底，如果你只是连接盒子或在无法控制的基础设施上构建服务，你在规模和效率的游戏里将受到限制。” $NBIS 今天就已经拥有全栈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are starting to price in: A divergence between AWS-style full-stack Neoclouds like $NBIS and miners such as $CIFR, $BITF, $CLSK, and others. This is the reason I sold off $IREN $WULF and others, and consolidated into Nebius. Why? 💹 Margins > ⚡️Capacity. Just today: The CTO of Nebius stated: “Almost no Neocloud in the market is actually a cloud. As in a bunch of baremetal with a ton of third-party software slapped on top.” Provocative? Absolutely not — if you take the term “cloud” seriously, not just as slapping on a bunch of hardware boxes. Danila explained how baremetal operators will soon discover the challenges Nebius has already solved at scale. And that’s exactly why I stated $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical upside, since miners may struggle with margins at scale. We’ve also seen a Forbes article by Nebius Co-Founder Roman Chernin, summarize how the AI economy requires a new, full-stack, AI-native infrastructure, not the stitched-together systems: “You can buy racks from one supplier, cable them together... but in the long term, economics, flexibility and speed depend on you controlling your own stack.” “If you control the stack, you control the product, the performance, and the economics.” _ This doesn’t mean there’s no room for other HPC companies like $WYFI, $APLD, $WULF, and others to grow, and the Neocloud segment is just beginning its run-up (especially when we look at $META or $AMZN earnings). However, during the speculation phase, we’ve already priced in capacity buildout with miners - most are already up 50–200%+. But when it comes to execution, those who control the full stack will win on margins. We’ve seen $CRWV figure that out firsthand, spending billions on software acquisitions and still maintaining lower utilization than $NBIS (as per the whitepaper). We’ve also seen how an $800B hyperscaler (Oracle) failed to build out its stack, running at 14% gross margins. If Oracle couldn’t fully integrate its software, and CoreWeave is still spending years trying to do so, how will small miners pivot? Arguments from “Type-1 only” operators will find out the hard way what margin compression at scale looks like. As the Forbes article concludes: “At the end of the day, if you’re just cabling the boxes or building service on top of infrastructure you don’t control, you’re limited in the game of scale and efficiency.” $NBIS already has that full stack today.
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Meta AI支出利好下游供应商NBIS和CRWV
@BaronAfanas 哈哈，$VIRT 表现依然落后，但很高兴看到它略有回升。 对于 $NBIS，很难不持看多态度。 人们抱怨 $META 在人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)上花太多钱，哈哈。 如果有什么影响的话，这些资金最终只是流向了像 $CRWV 和 $NBIS 这样的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BaronAfanas lol $VIRT is still underperforming but glad it’s recovering a bit. For $NBIS hard not to be bullish. People are complaining about $META spending too much on AI capex lol. If anything that money just funnels down to companies like $CRWV and $NBIS.
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认同LGN看多逻辑，指出其债务风险，强调七巨头供应链标的价值。
@gunnaosrs 是的，那正是我内部思考过的相同论点。 目前我听到的关于 $LGN 的负面消息只有债务问题以及与私募股权(PE)基金相关的某些事项，但我并未深入调查。 每当看到许多“七巨头(Mag7)”公司使用某家企业的服务时，我就会非常感兴趣（例如 $ALAB、$TSM、$CRWV）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@gunnaosrs Yeah that was my same thesis I was thinking about internally. Only negatives I've heard about $LGN so far were debt and something with P/E funds but I haven't looked into it too much. Whenever a lot of Mag7 uses a business I get really interested (eg. $ALAB, $TSM, $CRWV)
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点评GLXY等标的表现，IREN遭降级，CIFR与CRWV表现良好。
@mikelfilko 是的，$GLXY、$NBIS 和 $WLAC 是一组不错的标的。我认为只有 $IREN 的投资者对今天的双重降级感到有些意外，但其余标的表现良好，例如 $CIFR 获得升级，$CRWV 获得美国政府合同。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mikelfilko Yeah $GLXY, $NBIS, and $WLAC are a good bunch. I think only $IREN investors were in a bit of a surprise with the double downgrade today but the rest are performing well like $CIFR got upgraded and $CRWV US gov contracts.
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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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澄清Coreweave曾为矿企，质疑对方观点意图。
@NoNameBitcoiner $CRWV 在以太坊仍采用工作量证明(Proof of Work)机制时曾进行挖矿，因此 Coreweave 在转向高性能计算(HPC)之前是一家矿企。不太确定你想表达什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NoNameBitcoiner $CRWV mined Ethereum when they still did pow, so Coreweave was a miner before pivoting to hpc. Not quite sure where you're going with this.
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指出$CRWV在百亿营收规模下利润率将因规模效应而改变。
@MEijkelenborg 你忽略了规模效应。你可以展示在季度营收2000万美元或1.05亿美元时的利润率，但一旦产能建设达到如$CRWV所预期的季度营收10亿美元以上的规模，执行力和利润率都会发生变化。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MEijkelenborg You're missing at scale. You can show margins at $20m Q/revenue or $105M Q/revenue but execution and margins will change once you get to the projected scale based on capacity buildout like $1B+ Q/revenue what $CRWV has.
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指出仅CRWV具备规模化现金流可见性，其他公司尚未实现。
@MEijkelenborg 你忽略了现金流可见性以及规模化效应。目前只有 $CRWV 在财报中体现了这一点，其他公司尚未实现规模化收入，且利润率也未显现。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MEijkelenborg You're missing cash-flow visibility and at scale. Only $CRWV has that show up in earnings right now, none of the companies have fully executed revenue at scale yet with margins showing up for it.
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展示Neocloud板块个股一个月涨幅，重申看好并集中持仓NBIS。
Neocloud（新云）的投资逻辑经受住了时间的考验。 一个月后： $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) 这仅仅是史上最大规模AI数据中心建设浪潮的开始，金融圈(X)上的所有人现在入场都还为时过早。 我对整个Neocloud板块非常看好，但个人因$NBIS具有最高的非对称回报潜力而集中持仓。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Neocloud thesis aged well. 1 month later: $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) This is only the beginning of the largest AI data center buildout in history and everyone on finx is still early. I'm very bullish on the Neocloud sector across the board, but personally have concentration in $NBIS due to the highest asymmetrical return.
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因软件护城河优势，Nebius具最高上行空间，仍看多矿企HPC转型。
这是关于高性能计算(HPC)而非比特币挖矿…… 再次总结一下，核心观点是：由于中间件的存在，矿企的利润率将永远低于 $NBIS。 而摆脱对 $CRWV 等中间件的依赖是一个极高的护城河（关注 $ORCL）。 如果深入看数据，软件栈的价值 > 算力容量，因为软件收入转化为利润的效率远高于高营收但低利润的模式（如 ORCL）。 这就是为什么 Nebius 拥有最高的非对称上行空间。我仍然看多所有从事 HPC 的加密货币矿企。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is about HPC not bitcoin mining… Just to summarize again, the point was miner margins will always be less than $NBIS because of middleware. And how the transition off of middleware like $CRWV is an incredibly high moat (looking at $ORCL). And if we go into the numbers, software stack > capacity due to how revenue translates more into profit vs. high revenue and no profit (ORCL) That’s why Nebius has highest asymmetrical upside. I’m still bullish every crypto miner HPC
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对比IREN与NBIS模式，指出矿工自建HPC堆栈难敌全栈合作优势。
$IREN 在加密货币挖矿方面拥有良好的利润率和高吉瓦(GW)容量，但这并不能直接转化为高性能计算(HPC)优势。 与此同时，他们正采取 $CIFR 和 $WULF 的路径，通过中间件编排将业务导向超大规模云服务商，但这会在长期内大幅压缩利润率。 $NBIS 直接与 $MSFT 进行全栈合作，实际上可以随着时间的推移提高其毛利率。 大家都指向 $CRWV 作为小型转型的案例，但最近我们学到的残酷现实是，如果许多矿工试图建立自己的编排和堆栈，他们很可能会失败。 $ORCL 是软件护城河的完美例子：如果一个市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云服务商都感到困难，那么一个市值 40 亿美元的比特币矿工，或者像 $SLNH 这样市值 1 亿美元的微盘股，又该如何转型呢？ 如果他们选择直接转型，许多人在估算比特币矿工基本面时参考 $CRWV 将吉瓦(GW)转化为收入/利润的方式，但实际回报在执行过程中可能会令人失望。 Nebius 从一开始就是第一名，甚至在 GPU 利用率上超越了 $CRWV（根据其最新的白皮书），其全栈带来的长期盈利能力将在财报中胜过投机。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN has good margins for crypto mining and large GW capacity but that doesn’t translate directly into HPC. They’re going the $CIFR $WULF route in the meantime with middleware orchestration funneling to hyper scalers but that cuts into margins a lot in the long run. $NBIS is direct to $MSFT full stack and can actually increase their gross margins over time. Everyone points to $CRWV as the example to minor pivots but the harsh reality as we learned recently is that if many miners try building their own orchestration and stack, they will likely fail. $ORCL is the perfect example of the software moat where if a $800B hyperscaler has trouble how would a $4B bitcoin miner pivot, or a $100m microcap like $SLNH do it. If they go direct, a lot of people estimating bitcoin miner fundamentals use $CRWV in terms of translating GW to revenue/profit, but the actual returns will likely be underwhelming during the execution. Nebius is #1 from the very start, even beating out $CRWV (from their most recent whitepaper with gpu utilization) and long term profitability from full stack will shine when it comes to earnings vs speculation.
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看好Neoclouds板块，认为利润率比容量更重要，首选NBIS。
谢谢，只是想补充一下，我对从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的整个 Neoclouds 板块依然看好。短期内，由于围绕算力容量(capacity)的叙事，可能会有更高的上行空间，但我预计在执行和财报季到来时，市场会更关注利润率(margins)。就纯粹的不对称上行潜力而言，$NBIS 是显而易见的赢家，因为其运营侧拥有毛利率护城河（如果不是因为利息债务，$CRWV 也会名列前茅）。我在帖子中添加了一些定量数据，展示为何利润率 > 容量和/或中间件(middleware)。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks, just wanted to add I'm still bullish on Neoclouds across the board from $IREN to $CIFR. Short term there might be higher upside due to narratives around capacity but I'd expect markets to care about margins more when it comes time to execution + earning reports. In terms of raw asymmetrical upside, $NBIS is the obvious winner due to gross margin moat on their operational side ( $CRWV would have been up there if it weren't for interest debt). And I added some quantitative data in the post showing why margins > capacity and/or middleware.
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作者认为NBIS全栈软件优势带来高毛利，优于IREN等矿企，故重仓NBIS。
为了解决关于新云（Neocloud）的争论： $NBIS > $IREN 及其他。 基于 $ORCL 的报告、NBIS 白皮书、$CRWV 的收购案以及其他因素， 我决定将数百万资金整合进 Nebius，并清仓像 $CIFR 这样的矿企。 📏 毛利率 > 吉瓦（GW）产能 以下是数学逻辑及原因： 此前，由远期收入支撑的新云板块（例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的 190 亿美元交易）经历了巨大的投机性上涨。 然而，由于原始 GW 产能（如 $IREN）和廉价能源，加密货币矿企近期上涨了 500%+。 然而，人们忽略的是，产能虽能带来更高的收入，但如果不可盈利（例如 $ORCL 14% 的毛利率），这些收入毫无意义。 随着更多关于 $ORCL 建设失败、$NBIS 白皮书等的信息公布，我们得知如果经济模型无法转化，电力和产能意义不大。 而 $NBIS 拥有一切优势。 1. 毛利率差距：全栈 vs 中间件 像 $IREN 和 $CIFR 这样的矿企必须依赖编排合作伙伴（Fluidstack、Poolside 等）来变现其 GPU。这意味着要放弃 20-30% 的收入（~来自深度研究的私人估算），并承担 GPU 折旧、电力和运维成本。结果是？ 在 $3-4/小时 的 GPU 定价和 ~80% 利用率下，IREN/CIFR 的毛利率 = ~44-52% 在 $5-6/小时 和 90% 利用率下，毛利率可能达到 ~55-60%，但这已是天花板。 与此同时，Nebius 通过拥有编排层并分摊 4 年成本，目前获得 70-75% 的毛利率（上一季度为 71.2%，可能为 60-70%，近期白皮书声称更高的 GPU 利用率可能使其更高）。 随着规模和利用率的提高，这一差距会复利扩大。 矿企每赚一美元都要分出一部分，而 Nebius 的毛利率随时间增加。 2. 软件是护城河，Oracle 证明了这一点 即使 $ORCL 这样市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云服务商，也无法盈利地构建 GPU 编排，其 AI 租赁平台报告约 14% 的毛利率，并在此过程中亏损约 1 亿美元。 如果 Oracle 都无法执行，指望市值 1 亿美元的小型矿企如 $SLNH 从头构建超大规模云级别的编排系统只是痴人说梦。 像 Fluidstack 这样的平台是必要的桥梁，但代价高昂：毛利率压缩、收入流失和平台依赖。 Nebius？它已经完成了最难的部分。其内部编排软件、GPU 利用率，没有中间商赚差价。 3. 电力 vs 毛利率计算 单张 H100 功耗约 0.7-0.84 kW。即使在 $0.10/kWh 的电价下，每张 GPU 每小时的电费仅为 $0.07-0.08。当 GPU 以 $4-6/小时 出租时，这仅占收入的 1-2%。 真正影响大局的是什么？利用率： 50% -> 85% 的正常运行时间 = 每张 GPU 收入增加 70% 这是数百个基点的毛利率波动，远超与矿企相比的“廉价电力”优势。 软件利用率/编排是护城河，其重要性比廉价电力高 30-70 倍。而且 $NBIS 也不缺廉价电力 lol。 4. 矿企中的 CRWV 例外 大家都指向 $CRWV 作为矿企转型的案例，但 Coreweave 实际上花了数年时间，并进行了数十亿美元的软件收购。 即使现在，报道显示其利用率仍落后于 Nebius。如果矿企认为他们能复制 CRWV，祝他们好运。 我预计 $NBIS 在明年的财报中，当执行与投机面临检验时，将大幅跑赢。 🧩 非对称性 Nebius 毛利率：70-75%（全栈，4 年折旧） IREN/CIFR 现实毛利率：40-60%（中间件，2-3 年折旧） 毛利率差额：15-30 个百分点 执行风险：Nebius = 0（已在执行）；IREN/CIFR = 高 Nebius 不是电力博弈。它是软件毛利率博弈，带有硬件上行空间。对于 $IREN 等，你是在猜测它能否像 $CRWV 那样成功。 人们不断说“软件不是护城河，看看 $CRWV 对 $IREN 未来 HPC 毛利率的影响”，但如果 $ORCL 这样最大的超大规模云服务商之一都卡在 14% 的毛利率。那么我们怎么指望这些小加密货币矿企能搞定 Coreweave。 就非对称性更新而言，$NBIS 是明确的赢家。就原始潜在上行空间而言，如果 $IREN 能像变魔术一样搞定 $CRWV 并在此方面击败 $ORCL，那我确实会认输。 软件全栈是一个巨大的护城河，人们严重低估了它。对于 $NBIS，他们可以只是即插即用，随着时间推移扩大规模，拥有行业内最高的毛利率。 $NBIS 就是真正的非对称回报的样子。
原推 ↗英文原文
To settle the Neocloud debate: $NBIS > $IREN + others. Based on the $ORCL report, NBIS whitepaper, $CRWV acquisitions, and other factors, I decided to consolidate millions into Nebius and sell off miners like $CIFR. 📏 Gross Margins > GW capacity Here's the math + why: We've had a huge speculative run across the board on Neoclouds backed by forward revenue (eg. 19B $MSFT deal with $NBIS). However, crypto miners have recently gone up 500%+ due to raw GW capacity like $IREN and cheap energy. However, what people miss out on is capacity leads to much higher revenue but that revenue means nothing if it's not profitable (eg. $ORCL 14% gross margins). Now that more information has come out regarding $ORCL's buildout failure, $NBIS's whitepaper, and others, we know power and capacity mean little if the economics don’t translate. And $NBIS has everything. 1. The Margin Gap: Full Stack vs. Middleware Miners like $IREN and $CIFR must rely on orchestration partners (Fluidstack, Poolside, etc.) to monetize their GPUs. That means giving up 20–30% of revenue (~private estimates from deep research), plus absorbing GPU depreciation, power, and O&M. The result? At $3–4/hr GPU pricing and ~80% utilization, IREN/CIFR margin = ~44–52% At $5–6/hr and 90% utilization, margin could reach ~55–60%, but that’s the ceiling Meanwhile, Nebius earns 70–75% today by owning the orchestration layer and amortizing over 4 years (71.2% from previous Q, likely 60-70%, possibly higher from recent whitepaper claiming higher GPU utilizations). This gap compounds as scale and utilization rise. Miners give away a piece of every dollar they earn while Nebius INCREASES gross margins over time. 2. Software Is the Moat and Oracle Proved It Even $ORCL, an $800B hyperscaler, failed at building GPU orchestration profitably, reporting ~14% gross margins on their AI rental platform and losing ~$100M in the process. If Oracle can’t execute, expecting $100M marketcap small miners like $SLNH to build hyperscaler-grade orchestration from scratch is wishful thinking. Platforms like Fluidstack are essential bridges, but they come at a cost: margin compression, revenue leakage, and platform dependency. Nebius? It already did the hard part. Its in-house orchestration software, GPU utilization, with no middlemen taking a cut. 3. Power vs. Margin Calculations A single H100 uses ~0.7–0.84 kW. Even at $0.10/kWh, power is just $0.07–0.08 per GPU-hour. When GPUs rent at $4–6/hr, that’s 1–2% of revenue. What actually moves the needle? Utilization: 50% -> 85% uptime = +70% revenue per GPU That’s a multi-hundred bps margin swing, far outweighing any "cheap power" comparison with miners. Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. And it's not like $NBIS doesn't have cheap power either lol. 4. The CRWV Exception to Miners Everyone points to $CRWV as miners pivot but Coreweave literally spent YEARS to do this, along with billions in software acquisitions. And even now, reports suggest their utilization trails Nebius. If miners think they’ll replicate CRWV, good luck. I'd expect in NBIS to strong outperform in next year's earnings reports when it comes time for execution vs. speculation. 🧩 The Asymmetry Nebius GM: 70–75% (full-stack, 4yr depreciation) IREN/CIFR realistic GM: 40–60% (middleware, 2–3yr depreciation) Gross margin delta: 15–30 points Execution risk: Nebius = 0 (already doing it); IREN/CIFR = high Nebius isn’t a power play. It’s a software margins play, with hardware upside. With $IREN and others, you're guessing if it can pull off a $CRWV. People keep saying "software it not a moat, and look at $CRWV for $IREN future HPC margins", but if $ORCL one of the largest hyperscalers is stuck at 14% gross margins. Then how do we expect these small crypto miners to pull off a Coreweave. In terms of ASYMMETRICAL UPDATE, $NBIS is the clear favorite out of anything. In terms of raw potential upside if $IREN manages to pull a $CRWV out a hat and beats out $ORCL in this, sure I'd concede. Software full stack is a HUGE moat that people vastly, vastly underestimate. With $NBIS, they can just let it plug and play scale up over time with the highest gross margins in industry. $NBIS is what true asymmetric return looks like.
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对比NBIS与转型矿企，强调软件全栈与护城河决定高毛利优势。
我在其他评论中提到 $CRWV，将其作为加密货币矿工转向高性能计算(HPC)所追求的金标准范例。 即便如此，在 $CRWV 花费数十亿美元收购软件并耗时多年构建之后，$NBIS 的 GPU 利用率依然更高。 人们对 $IREN 和其他转型中的加密货币矿工抱有过于乐观的看法，而 $ORCL 的毛利率实际上仅为 14%。$CRWV 花费数十亿美元和数年时间构建软件，人们却期望像 $SLNH 这样市值仅 1.4 亿美元的小盘股能有效转型并实现良好的毛利率。 产能带来更高的潜在收入，但如果毛利率微薄则意义不大。全栈+软件编排+客户多元化才是护城河，也是 $NBIS 在毛利率方面可能胜出的原因。 （另外我不看好 $CRWV，因为其坏账侵蚀了利润。$NBIS 的 40%+ 价外可转换票据结构才是正确路径）
原推 ↗英文原文
I mention $CRWV in the other comments as the gold standard example crypto miners pivoting to HPC aim for. Even then $NBIS has higher GPU utilization after CRWV spends billions on software acquisition and years to build it out. People have too much rose-tinted lens on $IREN and other crypto miners pivoting when $ORCL literally had 14% gross margins. Again CRWV spend billions and years on their software buildout and people expect some $140m micro cap like $SLNH to effectively pivot into good margins Capacity leads to higher potential revenue but it doesn’t mean much if their margins are small. Full stack + software orchestration + customer diversity is the moat and why $NBIS will likely come out on top in terms of margins. (Also didn’t like $CRWV since their bad debt eats into margins too. $NBIS convertible note structure 40%+ OTM is the way to go)
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卖出HPC挖矿股转投NBIS，因后者利润率更高。
不，直到本周我都几乎持有了所有新云(Neocloud)股票。但在周五卖出了高性能计算(HPC)挖矿概念股，因为整合了更多新信息，例如 $ORCL 的建设失败、$NBIS 两天前发布的新白皮书、$CRWV 最近的收购案，以及对利润率计算的更多洞察。 但我会把资金转入 $NBIS。 人们对 HPC 挖矿商转型过于乐观，而 $ORCL 该板块利润率仅为 14%，且大家只盯着 Coreweave 看。 算力有助于扩大营收规模，但如果无法实现像 Nebius 那样的高利润率，这就没那么重要了。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, I held almost every Neocloud up until this week. But ended up selling HPC miners Friday after consolidating more information that came out eg. $ORCL buildout failing, $NBIS new whitepaper 2 days ago, $CRWV recent acquisitions, more insights into margin calculations. But I'll put that into $NBIS. People are too bullish on HPC miner pivots when $ORCL had 14% for that segment and they just look at Coreweave. Capacity helps scale revenue, but it wouldn't matter as much if they can't achieve high margins that Nebius will produce
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质疑小型矿企转型算力基建能力，对比巨头与同行效率。
$ORCL 未能匹配这些算力，而它是一家市值 8000 亿美元的公司。你是在赌那些市值 30 亿至 150 亿美元的小型加密货币矿企转型后能建成这些设施。$CRWV 花了数年时间并通过数十亿美元的收购才勉强实现运营，即便如此，根据其白皮书，$NBIS 的利用率仍更高。
原推 ↗英文原文
$ORCL failed to match these capacities and it's a $800B company. You're betting that a lot of these small $3-$15B crypto miners pivoting can build it out. $CRWV took years and billions of dollars in acquisitions to make it sort of work and even after that, $NBIS has higher utilization as per their whitepaper.
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认为NBIS软件护城河深，非对称收益优于IREN等转型矿工。
我不同意，软件编排（Software Orchestration）可能是最大的护城河之一，这就是为什么在我看来，$NBIS 的非对称上行潜力明显优于 $IREN。但各有所好！ 我同意 $IREN 因部署的吉瓦（GW）规模略大，潜在上行空间稍高，但在利润率方面的执行风险要大得多。 关于 $IREN 未来的财报，我认为市场将痛苦地发现，Nebius 目前的编排能力和客户多样性构成了巨大的护城河。 $ORCL 作为最大的算力公司之一，据 TI 报道，其最近的建设亏损超过 1 亿美元。这主要归因于软件、GPU 编排和客户基础。内部文件显示其毛利率约为 14%（而 $NBIS 上季度为 71.2%）。 如果最大的超大规模云服务商都做不好，而人们仍指向 $CRWV 支持比特币矿工转型（尽管他们花费数十亿用于软件收购且转型耗时数年），那么你可能低估了这个巨大的护城河。 此外，软件利用率/编排的重要性比廉价电力高约 30-70 倍（我在另一条评论中算过账）。 部署的兆瓦/吉瓦规模确实给矿工带来更高的上行空间，但当 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称回报和产能时，去猜测这些比特币矿工能否转向高利润率是没有意义的，这是我的观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'd disagree, software orchestration is one of the biggest moats possible, which is why $NBIS > $IREN clear as day for me in terms of asymmetrical upside. But to each their own! I'd agree IREN has slightly higher potential upside due to scale of GW deployed but way way larger execution risk in terms of margins. When it comes to future earning reports with $IREN, I'd expect markets to find out the hard way that the orchestration and customer diversity that Nebius has currently is a massive, massive moat. $ORCL one of the largest compute companies lost $100m+ on their most recent buildout as per TI reporting. This was largely due to software + GPU orchestration + customer base. Internal documents show they had ~14% gross margins (NBIS had 71.2% last quarter). If the largest hyperscalers can't get it right, and people keep pointing to $CRWV supporting Bitcoin miner pivots (when they spent billions on software aqusitions) and years on the pivot, then it's probably is a big moat that you're underestimating. Also Software utilization/orchestration matters ~30–70x more than cheap power (did the math in another comment). Scale of MW/GW deployed leads to higher upside with miners, sure, but there's no point of speculating whether these bitcoin miners can pivot into high margins when we have $NBIS with the highest asymmetrical return and capacity, was my point.
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软件利用率对AI算力利润的影响远超廉价电力成本。
$NBIS 拥有廉价电力，但可能不如 $IREN 或 $CIFR 便宜。但为了让你明白为什么这没那么重要： 软件利用率/编排(Orchestration)是护城河，其重要性比廉价电力高出约 30-70 倍。（请有人核实一下这个数学计算） 一张 H100 功耗约 0.84 千瓦。在 0.05 美元/千瓦时的电价下，成本为 0.04 美元/GPU-小时；即使在 0.10 美元/千瓦时，成本也仅为 0.08 美元/GPU-小时。 鉴于租赁价格约为 4 美元/GPU-小时，电力成本仅占收入的 1-2%。但将利用率从 50% 提升到 85%，会使单 GPU 收入增加 70%，从而大幅改变利润率。 不过，如果你拥有像 $CRWV 那样的所有组件（除了他们的坏账问题），那就是另一回事了，但这巨大的投机性赌注在于所有矿工能否建成这些设施。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS has access to cheap power, but it might not be as cheap as $IREN or $CIFR. But just to give you a sense of why it matters a lot less: Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. (someone pls fact check the math) A H100 burns ~0.84 kW. At $0.05 / kWh, that’s $0.04 / GPU-hour; even at $0.10 / kWh it’s $0.08 / GPU-hour. With rental prices of ~$4 / GPU-hour, power is just 1–2 % of revenue. But going from 50% to 85% utilization changes revenue per GPU by +70%, swinging margins massively. Then again if you have all the components like $CRWV (aside from their bad debt), then that's a different story, but it's a huge speculative gamble that all the miners can build that out.
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NBIS凭借低运营成本和高毛利率建立护城河，资金将从Oracle等竞争对手回流。
我曾讨论过 $NBIS 在大幅降低运营支出(opex)和提升利润率方面的内部护城河。这转化为定价权，因为他们可以收取更低的价格+获得更高利润+更高的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)可用于收购和投资（例如 Clickhouse）。Oracle 正在持续进行建设，据 TI 称这导致他们损失了 1 亿多美元。随着执行层面在 6 个月后的表现与当前的投机形成对比，我们可能会看到转向(miners pivoting)的矿工（CRWV 花了数年时间构建其技术栈+数十亿美元用于收购）毛利率恶化，资金将回流至 Nebius。$NBIS -> 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的毛利率。
原推 ↗英文原文
I was talking about $NBIS internal moat on reducing opex a ton + increased margins. This translates to pricing power since they can charge less + make more + higher EBITDA they can use for acquisitions + investments (eg. clickhouse) Oracle is ongoing with their buildout and it turned out to lose them $100m+ as per TI. We'll likely see worse gross margins on miners pivoting (CRWV spent years on building out their stack + billions on acquisition) and money flow back into Nebius when it comes to execution in 6 months time vs. speculation currently. $NBIS -> highest gross margins out of any Neocloud.
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清仓其他Neocloud重仓$NBIS，认为其全栈优势及无债结构使其优于同行。
Neocloud持仓更新，10月24日周五。 发这条推文是为了向$IREN和其他Neocloud（新云）持有者传达一个信息： 👑 $NBIS更胜一筹。 我已清仓其他Neocloud股票：$CIFR获利250%+，$IREN、$BITF、$WYFI获利50-100%+，$WULF亏损5-10%。 目前我在$NBIS股票/LEAPS（长期期权）上的敞口超过200万美元，并持有少量$WLAC仓位。如果$NBIS股价维持在115美元，下周我会继续加仓Nebius。 我通常不发布卖出操作，但最近有很多烦人的Neocloud帖子声称他们的才是最好的。所以我发这条是为了传达$NBIS在不对称上行潜力方面明显更优，且已锁定Mag7（科技七巨头）订单。因此，分散投资其他Neocloud毫无意义。 NBIS通过全栈/GPU利用率及多元化用户，可能拥有最高的利润率护城河。其子公司+投资组合公司（AI数据库、机器人/配送等）正随其运营业务同步扩张。此外，没有侵蚀利润率的不良利息债务。 只需等待一年获得另一个超大规模云厂商合同，就有轻松获得300%收益和1000亿美元+市值的明确路径。去推测比特币挖矿转型的毛利率毫无意义（看看$ORCL仅因GPU利用率+建设->收入滞后就损失1亿美元+），即使某些公司可能有更大的容量。 所以只想说：Nebius是THE Neocloud。🫳🎙️
原推 ↗英文原文
Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24. This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that: 👑 $NBIS is superior. I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss. Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS shares/leaps + small $WLAC positions. Will add more Nebius positions next week if it stays at $115. I don't normally post sales, but there's a lot of annoying Neocloud posts recently claiming that theirs is the best. So I'm posting this to send a message that $NBIS is clearly superior in terms of asymmetrical upside and already has Mag7 deals locked in. And because of this, there's no point of diversifying into other Neoclouds. NBIS will likely have the highest margin moat from how they do full stack/GPU utilization with their diversified users. And their subsidiaries + portfolio companies (AI DBs, robotics/delivery, etc). are scaling alongside their operational business. There's also no exposure to bad interest debt that eats into margins. There's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract and there's no point in speculating gross margins from Bitcoin mining pivots (see how $ORCL lost $100M+ just bc of GPU utilization + buildout -> rev lag) even if some might have larger capacity. So just wanted to say: Nebius is THE Neocloud. 🫳🎙️
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机构借恐慌在暗池增持 $NBIS，基本面支撑其 390 亿估值。
本周散户恐慌导致 $NBIS 暴跌至 94 美元。 不幸的是，许多散户不在本社区内，仅因股价下跌（混合做市商机械对冲）便在恐惧中抛售。 过去两天，Nebius 股价反弹超 17%。 这就是为什么信念 + 基本面/知识 > 股价。 下跌期间，机构通过暗池(dark pools)等渠道悄悄入场增持。 _ 基本面上，Nebius 被严重低估。我对 $NBIS 的基础估值约为 390 亿美元，若再获一家超大规模云厂商合作，一年内有望达 1000 亿美元。 Nebius 为微软 Azure 等未来超大规模基础设施提供算力。机构深知这一点，并将不惜一切代价增持这家全球算力核心公司的股份。 如果散户不能从基本面建立信念，也不理解机构如何利用暗池、期权流向等在不扰动价格的情况下积累筹码，他们就会纯粹因恐惧而非实质性变化而投降。 正如我在今日 Seeking Alpha 文章《Nebius 回调，聪明钱的入场点》中指出： “WhaleStream 报告显示约 1 亿美元净流入集中在 103.90 美元附近，显示新的机构兴趣。 Fintel 数据（源自 Nasdaq、FINRA 和 Capital IQ）证实，场外做空比率接近 19%，强化了机构通过暗池大量买入 Nebius 的观点。 实际上，这支持了大部分 Nebius 买入是通过暗池悄悄进行的观点，这与观察到的看涨期权积累相一致。” 积累是战略性的，但隐藏在明处。不要被震仓出局。
原推 ↗英文原文
This week retail panic sent $NBIS tumbling to $94. Unfortunately, many retail are outside this community and sold shares in fear (mixed with MM mechanical hedging) based on stock price dropping alone. In the past two days, Nebius is back up over 17%. This is why why Conviction + Fundamentals/Knowledge > stock price. During the drop, institutions quietly stepped in and acquired more from darkpools + other methods. _ Fundamentally, Nebius was very undervalued. My base-case valuation of $NBIS sits near $39B today, with room to reach $100B within a year with another hyperscaler partnership. Nebius powers parts of Microsoft Azure and other future hyperscale infrastructure. Institutions know this, and they'll do whatever it takes to grow their ownership in a company at the core of global compute. If retail doesn't develop conviction in the stock from fundamentals and understand how institutions play the game, using dark pools, options flow, and to accumulate shares without moving prices, they'll capitulate purely off of fear instead of material changes. As noted in today’s Seeking Alpha piece "Nebius Pullback, The Smart Money Entry Point": "WhaleStream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest. This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ), which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19% and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark pools by the institutions. In practice, this supports the view that much of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options." Accumulation is strategic but hidden in plain sight. Don't be shaken off.
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Nebius机构正借散户恐慌在暗池吸筹，基本面强劲，属买入良机。
@MB_Hogan 哈哈，关于暗池流入的第1点，正是我在底部时大声疾呼的内容。不幸的是，许多散户被洗出局了，不过这篇总结帖很棒！
原推 ↗英文原文
@MB_Hogan lol point #1 with dark pool inflows what I was screaming at the bottom Unfortunately a lot of retail got wiped out, great summary post though! https://t.co/tC4HCQ9B3a
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Nebius凭借全栈软件及运营效率，在利润率上优于纯容量型AI云厂商。
就纯上行潜力而言，$IREN 仅因纯粹的吉瓦(GW)容量而颇具前景。然而，$NBIS 在所有新云(Neocloud)中拥有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)。 随着最近发布的 Nebius 白皮书，他们公布了一些关于 GPU 利用率等数据。其全栈软件(full stack software)加上涵盖初创企业和中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化其运营支出(opex)，这是人们对其如何最大化 GPU 利润率的误解性护城河(misunderstood moat)。 人们试图将矿工(miners)框架化为潜在的转型者，但如果我们看看 $ORCL 的建设情况，他们在利润率转化上挣扎（建设后的 GPU 利用率等）。拥有其他软件层会压缩利润率，$CRWV 对此深有体会，这也是他们近期花费数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，原始容量并不总能转化为良好的利润率。全栈能力+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户，使 Nebius 具有明显优势。
原推 ↗英文原文
So in terms of raw upside, $IREN is promising just because of pure GW capacity. However, $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return out of any Neocloud. With the recent Nebius whitepaper, they published a bit about GPU utilization, etc. Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is a misunderstood moat in terms of how they maximize margins from GPUs. People try to frame miners as potential pivots but if we look at $ORCL builtout, they were struggling with margins that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers like compresses margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins. So being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs gives Nebius a clear edge.
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .
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反驳外部优势论，强调全栈软件与运营效率才是NBIS高毛利护城河。
是的，我同意这种拆解。但我觉得你关注错了重点（外部竞争优势）。 他们全栈软件(software full stack)加上涵盖初创企业、中小企业(SMBs)的多元化客户群，有助于优化自身的运营支出(opex)，这本身就是护城河(moat)。 你提到了像 $IREN 这样的矿企(miners)，但如果看看 $ORCL，他们在利润率以及未能转化为实际效益的建设/转型（如建设后的GPU利用率等）方面曾举步维艰。拥有其他软件层也会降低利润率，$CRWV 就亲身经历了这一点，这也是他们近期斥资数十亿美元进行收购的原因。 因此，拥有原始算力(raw capacity)并不总能转化为良好的利润率，就像 $NBIS 已经拥有的那样（如果我没记错的话，上次财报(ER)显示其毛利率为71.2%），这是全栈+运营效率+多元化中小企业客户带来的优势，而那些转型的矿企将不具备这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah I’d agree with the breakdown. But think you’re focusing on the wrong thing (external competitive advantage). Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is the moat in and of itself. You mention miners like $IREN but if we look at $ORCL they were struggling with margins and buildout/pivot that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers also reduces margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently. So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins like what $NBIS already has (71.2% gross from last ER, if I remember correctly) being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs that miners that pivot won’t have.
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作者认为NBIS估值偏低，利好AI算力及供应链相关个股。
我礼貌地表示反对，“公允价值”应该更高。新的$NBIS数据中心将提升经常性收入(ARR)，三次降息是巨大的催化剂。刚刚，Anthropic可能与$GOOGL签署200亿美元以上的协议，这对Clickhouse、$WULF、$IREN和Neoclouds都是利好。$META与$CRWV的交易也是如此。Google/七巨头(Mag7)受算力限制，这对Nebius（尽管在此消息下仍下跌5.6%）是更大的催化剂，预计其将有更多超大规模云服务商合同落地。
原推 ↗英文原文
I respectfully disagree, "fair value" should be higher. There's been new $NBIS data centers for ARR boost, 3x rate cuts which is a huge catalyst. Just now, Anthropic might sign a $20B+ dollar deal with $GOOGL, which is bullish for Clickhouse, $WULF, $IREN, and Neoclouds. $META x $CRWV deals. Google/Mag7 is compute limited, and this is only a bigger catalyst for Nebius (which is still down 5.6% despite this news), which likely has more hyperscaler contracts on the way.
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Nebius基本面强劲，机构正借散户恐慌低位吸筹，建议买入。
Nebius 的走势完全符合机构投资者的预期： 散户恐慌。 投降式抛售。 流动性释放。 我几周前就说过：$NBIS 的机构持股比例约为 38%。为了将这一比例提升至 65-80%（就像 $HOOD 那样），他们会不惜使用所有手段： 以下是发生这一切的原因： 在上个月微软（MSFT）达成 170-190 亿美元的交易后，Nebius 进入了华尔街的视野。在此之前，由于非传统的公开上市方式，其机构持股比例一直低于 30%。 与此同时，我们看到了 Nebius 基本面的爆发式增长： 1. 🚀 远期营收增长超 1,000%，毛利率达 55-75%，年化经常性收入 (ARR) 增至 40-60 亿美元以上。 2. 💼 拥有 Clickhouse 等公司的大量股权，后者为 Anthropic、Meta、Lyft 等提供支持。 3. ⚡ NBIS 为微软 Azure 以及可能更多的 Mag7 基础设施提供支持，这些是超大规模云服务商 (Hyperscalers) 的现金牛。 4. 🌊 凭借全栈 + 软件 GPU 编排 (GPU Orchestration) 构建巨大护城河，从而带来更高的毛利率。 5. 💸 史上最大规模的数据中心建设，Meta 已与 CRWV 签约，其他超大规模云服务商紧随其后。我们看到了台积电 (TSM) 在此建设中的远期预测，数据惊人。 6. 🏦 三次降息提振了远期营收预测。 Nebius 是极具吸引力的买入标的，是一家百年一遇的公司，目前市值 260 亿美元，股价 100 美元。 我们在 Robinhood ($HOOD) 身上见过这种剧本：当股价为 20 美元时，曾出现低于市值目标价 50% 的情况和负面报道。然而，Robinhood 的季度营收从 1.5 亿美元增长至 9.5 亿 -10 亿美元，市值从 150 亿美元涨至 1300 亿美元，最终成为华尔街的宠儿。 华尔街和机构投资者清楚地看到 Nebius 未来一年的潜力，但尚未建立大量头寸。 然而，散户只看到下跌的股价、关于甲骨文 (Oracle) 试图进入该领域亏损 1 亿美元的耸人听闻的文章，以及当前 1 亿美元的营收数据，而非预测的季度营收 10 亿美元以上。 因此，即使价格看似因边际交易而下跌，即使更多股份被买入： 1. 散户恐慌性抛售，遭遇保证金清算 (Margin Liquidation)。 2. 做市商 (MMs) 针对短期期权（散户卖出看涨期权或买入短期看涨期权的对手方）进行机械对冲，加剧下行压力，引发抛售。 3. 从 Citadel 到 Virtu 的做市商通过从散户手中买入来吸收流动性。 4. 做市商通过大宗交易 (Block Trades) 和暗池 (Dark Pools) 向机构卸载头寸以进行对冲和再平衡。（收割机构的抛售） 5. 机构在压低股价的同时进行低可见度的积累。（例如：散户卖出 10 万股，机构买入 15 万股，而股价下跌。） 散户看到“红色交易日”并认为“没人买入”，而积累仍在悄悄进行。 散户情绪崩溃，但基本面仅有所改善（例如：基于估算，新的以色列数据中心建设将增加约 8000 万美元以上的 ARR）。 这是一个缓慢且战略性的过程，对冲基金和机构将 Nebius 视为潜在的下一个 1000 亿美元市值公司，从而积累大量流通股本。 基本面没有改变——只有股价和散户情绪发生了变化。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is happening: Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing. Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding: 1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR. 2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc. 3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers 4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins. 5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit. We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers. 6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections. Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share. We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street. Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet. However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter. So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought: 1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated. 2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off) 3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail. 4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions) 5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.) Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly. Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates). It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company. The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.
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超大规模云合同增加，META签约利好新兴云厂商，MSFT合同未定价。
更多超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同正在陆续到来。但你关于财报+降息（以及11/12月季节性因素）作为最大短期催化剂的观点完全正确。通常公司在财报后发布更多前瞻性指引时会获得估值重估(rerated)。当$META与$CRWV签约时，这对其他新兴云厂商(neoclouds)是极度看涨的信号。除此之外，我认为$MSFT的合同和其他降息预期尚未被市场定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
More hyperscaler contracts coming in. But you're spot on with earnings + rate cuts (+ Nov/Dec seasonality) as the biggest near-term catalysts. Usually companies get rerated after earnings when they release more insight into forward projections. When $META signed with $CRWV that's extremely bullish for the other neoclouds. Aside from that don't think $MSFT contract and other rate cuts are priced in yet.
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
原推 ↗英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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呼吁监管机构调查媒体虚假报道操纵市场及潜在内幕交易行为。
@HesterPeirce @SEC_Enforcement @FINRA @CFTC - 调查此类对产生重大市场影响的媒体报道是否违反了10b-5规则。请探查其与外部证券交易的模式/协调情况。最近一次发生在10月7日，“甲骨文内部数据显示出租英伟达芯片的财务挑战”——缺乏背景的投机性报道造成了数百亿美元的市场财务损失。$ORCL 估值下跌80-90亿美元（$291 -> $284），$CRWV 下跌20亿美元，以及该板块其他许多抛售。在此事件中，文章故意遗漏了极其重要的数百亿美元云合同，以将讨论框架设定为针对 @sama 和 @satyanadella 的抹黑文章。操纵市场的糟糕新闻令人发指，但由于这种影响市场的行为持续存在，请调查 The Information 的无根据报道和关键信息遗漏是否与外部证券交易有关。
原推 ↗英文原文
@HesterPeirce @SEC_Enforcement @FINRA @CFTC - Investigate whether this media reporting, which materially affects the markets, violates Rule 10b-5. Probe patterns/coordination with external security transactions. Most recent occurrence was October 7th, "Internal Oracle Data Show Financial Challenge of Renting Out Nvidia Chips” - speculative reporting lacking context caused tens of billions of dollars in market financial damages. An $8 – 9 billion drop in $ORCL valuation ($291 -> $284), $2B decline in $CRWV, and many other sell-offs in the sector from the article. In this event, the article intentionally leaves out extremely important tens of billions of dollars of cloud contracts to frame discussions as a hit-piece on @sama and @satyanadella. Bad journalism that moves markets is egregious but as this market-moving behavior is ongoing, please probe whether unsubstantiated reporting and critical information omission done by The Information is connected to external securities transactions.
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驳斥媒体抹黑，指出微软已签长期保底协议，服务器过剩论不成立。
这篇文章写得极差，且完全缺乏背景信息。上次他们发布针对 Oracle 的抹黑文章时，这种故意剥离背景的做法就引发了更广泛的抛售 @SEC @secpaulsatkins 文章的核心观点——“不断升级的计算需求可能导致服务器建设过剩，且无法获得足够的财务回报”——完全忽略了 $MSFT 已与多家新云厂商（例如与 Nebius 的 170-190 亿美元协议，或与 $CRWV 的协议）签署了多年期的合同预留，以确认其使用率。 这些都是微软为扩大产能而签署的数十亿美元最低使用量协议，且不含“随意终止”条款。 通过剥离这些背景，这篇文章就变成了空头抹黑帖加上“Sam Altman 是个坏人”的叙事，而非真正的新闻。
原推 ↗英文原文
Extremely poorly written and zero-contextualization article. Intentional no-contextualization led to broader selloffs last time they published an Oracle hit-piece @SEC @secpaulsatkins The core point - “Escalating compute demands could result in overbuilt servers without sufficient financial returns” - completely omits that $MSFT signed multi-year contractual reservations for confirmed utilization with many neoclouds (eg. $17-19B with Nebius or with $CRWV) These are tens-of-billions in minimum-utilization agreements Microsoft signed to scale capacity without “at-will” termination clauses. By stripping out that context, this becomes a short seller hit piece + Sam Altman terrible person narrative rather than actual news.
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博主基于宏观利好更新美股AI/半导体/能源等板块的强烈买入、买入及持有名单。
大豆/植物油崩盘，个人思考与解释： 强烈买入 $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC （+ 同上次税务收割股） $AMZN $SMCI _ 买入 $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH 持有 $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS （已达推文股票代码上限，其余同上次帖子，Quantum或Oklo仍建议卖出） _ 强烈买入 ALAB - 数据中心建设的重要组成部分，拥有类似英伟达(NVDA)的利润率，客户包括Mag7。已有来自博通(AVGO)的竞争者，真的不认为Arista会构成竞争威胁。 CRDO - 与ALAB同样的抛售，之前觉得两者都略有高估，但现在回到修正区间，适合补仓。 NBIS - $400目标价牛市情景。宏观顺风来自政府重新开放+10月底降息预期进入财报季，短期前景看好。利好众多（如Meta x CRWV，因此有更多Mag7客户的潜力），分部表现良好，例如Clickhouse，季度收入从$1亿扩展到$15亿+非常惊人。合同已锁定，只是公司执行的问题。 WLAC - 之前在$13时写过投资逻辑。即使在$14.5也很强，因为它可以轻松重估100%+。 LTC - 受杠杆交易者和政府停摆影响。预计停摆将持续一段时间，主要买入理由是ETF获批。但无论如何，低于$100都是很好的买入点，因为最终会获批（~95%概率）。 TSM - 天哪。如果是美国公司这将是$3万亿市值的公司，利润率惊人，对于其规模而言增长率惊人。每篇关于OpenAI X (**Sydney Sweeney合作)或AMD建设/NVDA建设的帖子中，TSM都是核心，即使以历史高点买入，也轻松成为$2万亿+公司（目前约$1.5万亿）。 BTC - $112K是好的入场点。黄金不断创历史新高，基本面没什么变化，只是最近大量清算。 （+ 同上次税务收割股） AMZN - 我真不知道为什么年初至今还在跌。我觉得亚马逊不需要太多解释，但仍在增长（例如AWS积压订单巨大，仍增长24%，当然不如ORCL、GCP等），但考虑到年底季节性和2月前的上涨，现在可能是抄底的最佳时机。AMZN今天触及$213-215是补仓的好机会，因为短期波段交易通常浮动在$218-$227，但长期我预计它会追赶其他Mag7。 SMCI - 被低估。市场关注短期表现，Charles引用的55%+同比前瞻收入增长无人相信+未实现的积压订单。但现在随着所有数据中心建设，这开始说得通了。因此应在接下来两次财报中重估。 _ 买入 AMD - OpenAI x AMD，Oracle使用AMD建设，这么多交易，如果它确实是$NVDA的强劲竞争对手，将重估为潜在$1万亿+公司。我不认为赢家通吃，可以看到$NVDA $4.5万亿+市值和$AMD $3500亿市值，所以我们可以看到大幅拉升（OpenAI通常是前沿模型领导者，如果Sam说他们可以使用AMD芯片+Elon说它对中小模型有益，可能意味着积极信号） FLNC - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 SEI - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 BZAI - 别人做过这家公司的深度研究，仅因板块和向边缘计算转移（例如机器人将很热）。由于低市值和类似公司的上涨可能表现良好。 NKLR - 像$OKLO这样的核能股已经起飞，这只是跟随梯队。 IREN - 无需介绍，巨大的GW算力，只是还没有宣布Mag7交易，但随时可能到来 -> 强劲重估。不是强烈买入的唯一原因是因为不完全确信矿工能像CRWV那样转型并保持高利润率（例如$ORCL打击文章），但我们会看到。 WULF - GOOGL积压订单，另外$3.6+亿左右的资金帮助很大。 CIFR - X上有很多关于未来产能和强劲重估的信息。一直喜欢这家公司，因为它是NBIS-lite。你可以买任何Neocloud，因为板块潜力巨大，Mag7将收入注入。 CRWV - 因为债务不像其他人那样喜欢，但由于植物油修正，$134（低于META交易宣布时）是更好的买入点 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 WYFI - Neocloud类别相同 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 GLXY - Neocloud类别相同，有助于其建设 RBRK - 做过深度研究，中期网络安全板块很好的买入，他们只需缩减营销，然后看起来有更多自由现金流，因为他们将大部分运营支出花在营销上。 GRAB - 基本面很好，-6.56%修正再次买入 SEA - 东南亚的AMZN，很多人使用。仅因客户群+变现潜力就买入。基本面$50亿+收入38% Y/Y增长也很好。 META - 我真的很不喜欢他们在AI上的昂贵资本支出，因为他们并没有像ChatGPT那样推出前沿模型，谁知道Zuck在做什么。但除此之外，一个月下跌7.3%，回到$700支撑位，可能在这里买入以追赶是个好主意。 TGT - 下个月股息是好的催化剂。 SNAP - Jenners回来了（有助于人气），他们将前记忆运营支出转为收入，这可能会导致明年巨大的重估。只是受税务收割影响，否则现在会是强烈买入。通常税务收割事件在12月完成。 MU - 现在中国恐惧稍微减弱，MU因为建设中的内存使用而成为更强的买入。 RKLB - 中子，金色穹顶合同，很多催化剂 FLY - 中等提升 UNH - 不受大豆影响的医疗保健股，但有修正。机构发布持仓后可能会上涨（例如Warren可能买了更多） 随机想法 基本上任何不是Oklo的成长/风险股都很好，因为我们有 -> 10月底降息 -> 政府重新开放（可能在10月底或11月初） 进入 -> 12月降息。 -> 中期选举（对股票看涨） 通常市场崩盘发生在紧缩而非宽松时。你的愚蠢量子泡沫可能会再持续3-12个月。如果你做空，可能等到明年2月。 无论如何，这是风险偏好的好时机，特别是搭乘Neoclouds -> 相关板块（例如能源）-> 相关公司（例如smci, tsm等）的趋势。 我半开玩笑地说大豆，因为它可能签署了升级紧张局势，但我可能会看到明年前的上涨。另外我可以写很多关于每一个的内容，但这很耗时，但我会不时发布关于随机股票如$RBRK的投资逻辑帖子。 太空/机器人/能源/量子/AI/半导体/关键垂直领域是目前最顶级的，不要对抗动量。我可以认为某些东西被高估了（例如一些关键材料，因为与Neoclouds相比仍然具有投机性，后者基于Mag7的执行有保证的收入），但我不会在降息时做空它。 只是个人想法，非财务建议
原推 ↗英文原文
The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations: Strong Buy $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) $AMZN $SMCI _ Buy $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH Hold $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS (Hit the ticker maximum but everything else from last post, still sell on Quantum or Oklo) _ Strong Buys ALAB - Huge part of datacenter buildout, NVDA like margins, Mag7 customers. Already had competitors from AVGO, really don't think Arista would be a competitive threat. CRDO - Same sell-off as ALAB, thought they were both kind of overvalued before, but now they're back in correction territory so good to stock up. NBIS - $400 PT bull case. We have macro tailwind from government re-opening + rate cut EOM october into earnings, so short term looks promising. Lot of things going for it (eg. meta x crwv, so there's potential for more mag7 clients), sum of parts doing well, eg. clickhouse, and scaling rev from $100m to $1.5B+ a quarter is insane. there's already contracts locked in its just a matter of company execution. WLAC - Wrote a thesis about this earlier at $13. Even at $14.5 strong because it can re-rate 100%+ easily. LTC - Affected by leverage traders and government shutdown. The shutdown is predicted to last awhile and the main reason to buy was the ETF getting approved. But a great buy sub <$100 anyway, because it will get approved in due time (~95% chance). TSM - Holy crap. This would be a $3T company if this were a US company, insane profit margins, insane growth rate for their size. And every post you see about OpenAi X (**sydney sweeney partnership) or AMD buildout/NVDA buildout. TSM is the center of it all and would easily be a $2T+ company (from here at ~$1.5T), even if buying at ATHs. BTC - $112K good entry point. Goldt keeps hitting ATH, nothing really changed fundamentally, just lot of liquidations recently (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) AMZN - I really don't know how it's still down YTD. I don't think Amazon needs much explaining but still growing (eg. AWS backlog massive, still going like 24% but not as much as ORCL, GCP and others obviously), but with EOY seasonality and runup to Feb, now is probably the best chance to catch the bottom. AMZN hitting $213-215 today was a good chance to stock up since it usually floats between $218-$227 if you're short term swing trading but long term I'd expect it to catchup to other mag7. SMCI - Underrated. Markets were looking short term performance, and Charles was quoting like 55%+ Y/Y forward revenue growth which nobody believed + backlog that didnt get realized yet. But now with all the data center buildouts, now it's kinda making sense. So should re-rate in the next two earnings. _ Buy AMD - So many deals from OpenAI x AMD, oracle building out with AMD, this is going to re-rate to a potential $1T+ company if it's actually a strong competitive to $NVDA. I don't think it's winner takes all and you can see a $4.5T+ market cap size with NVDA and some $350B marketcap size with AMD, so we can see a large ramp up (OpenAI is usually the leader in frontier models and if Sam says they can use AMD chips + elon said its' good for small-medium weight models, prboably means something positive) FLNC - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. SEI - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. BZAI - Someone else did a DD on this company, just cause of sector and shift to edge compute (eg. Robotics goign to be hot). Because of low MC and runup of similar companies could turn out well. NKLR - Nuclear stocks like $OKLO have been taking off, this is just follow the lader. IREN - Needs no introduction, huge GW compute capacity just no announced mag7 deals yet but could come anytime -> strong re-rate. Only reason not a strong buy is because not fully convinced miners can pivot like CRWV and maintain great margins (eg. $ORCL hit piece) but we'll see. WULF - GOOGL backlog, another $3.6+ or so in funding helps a lot. CIFR - Lot of info on X about future capacity and strong re-rating. Always liked this company because it was NBIS-lite. You can probably buy any Neocloud and it will go up because the sector is incredibly high potential with Mag7 funneling revenue. CRWV - Didn't like this as much as others because of debt but because of the seed oil correction much better buy point at $134 (below when META deal was announced) BITF - Same in Neocloud category WYFI - Same in Neocloud category BITF - Same in Neocloud category GLXY - Same in Neocloud category, helps with their buildout RBRK - Did a DD on this, great buy for cybersecurity sector in mid term, they just need to scale back marketing and then it looks like they have a lot more FCF because they're spending most OPEX on marketing. GRAB - Great fundamentally, -6.56% correction good to buy again SEA - AMZN in SEA, tons of people use them. Just a buy just because of costumer base + monetization potenetial. Fundamentally growing $5B+ rev 38% Y/Y is also great. META - I really don't like all their expensive capex on AI since they're not really putting out fronteir models like ChatGPT with it, who knows what Zuck is doing. But that aside, down 7.3% over the month, going to $700 support, probably a good buy around here to play catchup. TGT - Dividend next month good catalyst. SNAP - The Jenners are coming back (helps with popularity), they're shifting former memory opex to revenue, and this will probably cause a HUGE rerating next year. Just suffers from tax harvesting otherwise would be a strong buy rn. Usually tax harvesting events are kinda done in December. MU - Now that China fears are kinda less intense, MU is a lot stronger buy just cause of memory use on buildout. RKLB - Neutron, golden dome contracts, lot of cataylsts FLY - Medium lift UNH - Healthcare stock not affected by soybeans but had a correction. Would likely go up one instituions post their ports (eg. warren likely bought more) Random thoughts Basically any growth/risk stock that's not named Oklo is great because we have -> Rate Cut end of month October -> Government re-opening sometime (likely around end of Oct or early Nov) Into -> Rate Cut December. -> Midterms (Bullish for stocks) Usually market crashes happen when there's tightening not easing. And your stupid quantum bubbles would likely continue for another 3-12 months afterward. If you're short, then probably wait till next Feb. Anyway, this is a great time for risk-on, and specially riding trends with neoclouds -> affiliated sectors (eg. energy) -> affiliated companies (eg. smci, tsm, etc). I half joke-about soybeans because it likely signed escalating tensions, but I'd probably see a run-up into next year. Also I could write up a lot about each one but it's pretty time consuming but I'll put on a thesis post about random ones eg. $RBRK, from time to time. Space/robotics/energy/quantum/ai/semi/critical top verticals right now, don't fight against momentum. I can think something is overvalued (eg. some critical materials bc. it's still spectulative compared to neoclouds that kinda have guaranteed rev based on execution from mag7) but I wouldn't short it into rate cuts. Just personal thoughts, NFA
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NBIS凭借全栈软件及多元客户，长期潜力优于IREN。
IREN 短期内可能因原始算力(GW)优势而表现优异，但 $NBIS 具备在市场修正/崩盘中存活并最终成为下一个市值超1000亿美元的 $MSFT 的潜力，其价值源于各部分投资之和。此外，他们拥有多元化的客户群（从 $ORCL 财报中我们已看到其重要性）。同时具备全栈+软件编排能力（从 $ORCL 财报及 $CRWV 收购软件公司中可见其重要性）。市场正在定价矿工转型的能力，但正如甲骨文案例所示，始终存在盈利风险，因此 NBIS 已具备这一优势。
原推 ↗英文原文
IREN might outperform near term just because of raw GW but $NBIS has the potential to outlast any market correction/crash and become the next $100B+ $MSFT with sum of parts investments. Also they have diversified client base (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report) Also full stack + software orchestration (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report and why $CRWV has been buying up software companies). People are pricing in miners being able to pivot but there's always profitability risk as seen with oracle, hence why NBIS already has that down.
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博主分享利用AI辅助研究，并对比不同板块的风险收益特征。
非常赞同，关键矿物确实很复杂。当我买入像 $MP 这类标的时，我通常会使用 ChatGPT 深度研究来帮助我更好地理解风险收益权衡。但当我买入随机的锂电池小盘股并发帖讨论时，我承认我缺乏领域知识。但就像你关于 $IREN 的 Neocloud 帖子一样，通常像 AI 基础设施建设（如 $CRWV）或量子计算（如 $IONQ）这样热门的领域会带动整个板块上涨。所以风险收益有时是值得的，但我不建议效仿我的做法，也不会对此投入过多的投资组合权重。而在数据中心基础设施建设等方面，风险收益比要好得多，因为只要有执行力，几乎可以确定会有收入，且有 Mag7 公司作为后盾。
原推 ↗英文原文
Heavily agree, critical minerals are really complex. When I buy stuff like $MP I usually use ChatGPT deep research to help me understand risk-reward tradeoffs better. But when I buy random lithium battery small caps and post about it I admit I don’t have domain knowledge. But like your Neocloud post about $IREN usually a popular domain like AI buildout with $CRWV or something like Quantum with $IONQ will uplift an entire sector anyway. So risk-reward is sometimes worth it but I wouldn’t follow what I do and wouldn’t put much portfolio weighting into it either. And it’s a much better risk-reward on stuff like data center buildout since it’s almost for sure revenue based on execution with mag7 backstopping companies.
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解析$NBIS全栈优势及分部估值，给出$400目标价，对比$CIFR/$IREN。
我仍持有6位数的随机$CIFR期权，但信心不高。 简短总结我对$NBIS比其他公司更有信心的原因： -Nebius是全栈式(full-stack) -> 利润率更高（GPU利用率的软件编排，我们曾讨论过其重要性，以及从$ORCL建设失败中建立的护城河，还有$CRWV收购大量软件公司的原因）。 -分部估值(sum of parts)（例如FTX投资Anthropic、$HOOD，它们在几年内都上涨了1000%）即使利润率受压，也能比主营业务更持久，且$NBIS在Clickhouse等优秀公司中持有大量股份。 -更分散的客户群（也从$ORCL那里学到了其重要性）用于建设->使用，相比其他Neoclouds。 高置信度$400目标价，牛市情景下1年内$1000亿市值。 我也做多$IREN等，仅因其电力容量，或$CIFR作为“轻量版Nebius”在融资+Mag7客户方面，但这与我坚信一家公司vs认为其基本面将跑赢略有不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
I still have 6fig in random $CIFR strikes but not high conviction. Short TLDR on why I have high conviction in $NBIS compared to others is because -Nebius is full stack -> higher margin (software orchestration for GPU utilization, we why that's important and a moat from $ORCL build-out failure, and why $CRWV bought out a lot of software companies). -sum of parts (eg. FTX investing in Anthropic, $HOOD, where they all went up 1000% over a few years) can outlast a main business even if margins got compressed and $NBIS has a large stake in great companies like Clickhouse -more diversified client base (learned from $ORCL why that's important too) for buildout -> usage compared to other Neoclouds. High conviction $400 PT, $100B MC in 1Y for a bull case. I'm long stuff like $IREN too just because of their power capacity or $CIFR being Nebius-light in terms how they did fundraising + Mag7 client but it's slightly different me believing in a company vs. thinking they will outform from fundamentals.
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Coreweave是新云核心但债务风险高于同行。
@Solar_Twelve 我实际上已经触及了 X 平台股票代码数量的上限，否则我会讨论更多从 $AMD 到 $CRWV 的内容。不过，Coreweave 确实是新云(Neocloud)交易的核心，但相比 NBIS 或 CIFR，其债务状况相当糟糕。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Solar_Twelve I actually hit the X ticker maximum otherwise I would have talked about more stuff from $AMD to $CRWV. But yeah, Coreweave is at the center of the Neocloud trade but they have pretty toxic debt compared to NBIS or CIFR.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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分析$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的潜力，认为其风险回报优于$RKLB。
自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资论点，现在分享如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的竞争对手是 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，较当前（44 亿美元市值）增长 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿美元的市值估算基于 $RKLB 的估值倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的订单积压）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下，毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列火箭的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的风险。看空者指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险... 他们应该问的问题是：诺斯罗普 (Northrop) 和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普，与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的发射公司之间的联合开发 (Co-development)。 诺斯罗普此前曾拥有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前运行正常，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚在 2026-2027 年可由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载火箭），这已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的订单积压以及美国“金穹”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，购买 Firefly 的风险回报比是合理的，前提是公司在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大的护城河，成为下一个 SpaceX。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，但我认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普合作存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的机会高于正常水平。） 显然，Rocket Lab 实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的成功概率更高，但这已经反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，相比之下 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿美元。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。另外，我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人 (Rocketman) 本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90% 以上的机会实现可重复使用中型运载火箭飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，只是因为太空 TAM（总可寻址市场）因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
原推 ↗英文原文
People have been asking for my $FLY thesis since my Reddit post, so here it is: Firefly is a rocket company like $RKLB, and is developing a reusable medium-lift rocket. The only one that exists is SpaceX. They target 2026-2027, and if they succeed, the company would re-rate to a 30-70B market cap, 1000-2000% from here (4.4B MC) More details: The 30-70B marketcap estimate is priced off $RKLB multiples, and only on medium-lift working. (I'm ignoring other business segments and current $1B+ revenue backlog). In a year with medium-lift: ~$0.9–1.3B revenue, with 30–40% gross margins at workable cadence (8–12 flights). Falcon-class pricing support this. So now the only question is, can FLY make it work? After Fly's individual company latest launch failure, the stock dropped 50% and the market is already pricing in the feature of failure. The bears are pointing to Alpha's failures for execution risk. HOWEVER, they're pricing the risk in completely wrong... The question they should be asking is, whether both Northrop + Firefly can make this work? This is a CO-DEVELOPMENT between Northrop, one of America's largest military contractors for Aerospace with some tiny $4B marketcap launch company. Northrop literally had its own medium-lift rocket before but they had to sunset it. Northrop’s prior launcher, Antares 230 worked before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, then the supply chain was cut off. However, Northrop faced an existential problem: it couldn’t build its own first stage anymore. So they went looking for a U.S. partner with ready-made propulsion and structures for the sake of time: Firefly. -> Motivation: Firefly’s Miranda engines offered a plug-and-play replacement to immediately build a medium lift launcher. And now you have a medium lift launcher in 2026-2027 that Firefly monetizes (because Northrop took a stake in the company), just need to make it re-usable, which is the hard part. But Northrop doesn’t just “help.” It structurally lowers risk across every aspect across the board. And Northrop’s system + Firefly’s new-space engines hits a scarce, high-demand moat (U.S. medium-lift with reuse), already validated by TacRS and a $1B+ backlog + US golden dome defense system catalyst. So, risk reward of buying Firefly on the company succeeding on Medium-Lift Launcher and developing a huge moat to be the next SpaceX, is decent. (I also have $RKLB in my portfolio too, I just see the opportunity of succeeding in reusable Medium Lift to be higher than normal because it medium-lift already existed with Northrop). Obviously Rocketlab has a higher probability of success achieving reusable medium lift, but that's already priced into its 32B+ marketcap, compared to a 4.4B Fly marketcap. I just find $FLY to be an interesting 10x moonshot at this valuation in the chance it works in the next year or two. Also I just really like rockets. I also had Grok calculate the odds since XAI is owned by Rocketman himself. _ Output: By end-2027, Rocket Lab has a 90%+ chance of achieving reusable medium-lift flights (likely by mid-2026), driven by their head start, proven execution, and in-house control. Firefly/Northrop reaches 75–80% probability, bolstered by Northrop’s legacy but tempered by Firefly’s newer operational track record. The extra year narrows the gap—Firefly could match or exceed Neutron’s cadence by late 2027 if Antares 330 flies on time and Miranda engines scale. In the event they both get it to work (big if), RKLB could re-rate to $60B marketcap, and $FLY could re-rate to 40B marketcap, just because of TAM of Space rapidly increasing from national security risks and corporate sector buildout, just might need to wait another year.
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博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
原推 ↗英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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甲骨文GPU服务亏损凸显新型云在资本效率与利润率上的优势，利好NBIS等。
为什么$ORCL在GPU即服务（GPU-as-a-Service）方面面临的挑战（据泄露消息）实际上对Nebius等新型云（Neoclouds）是利好。 超大规模云服务商在GPU经济学上的挣扎，加强了专业化新型云的论点。 这对$NBIS、$WYFI、$IREN、$CIFR、$CRWV等股票来说是一个惊人的机会： 简而言之（据传闻）： 甲骨文面临亏损源于： - 客户增长前的低利用率（闲置产能） - 巨额前期资本支出（Blackwell GPU） - 沉重的 overhead（运营开销） - 折扣定价 结果：甲骨文的GPU计算业务出现负毛利率。 这对甲骨文是利空，对新型云是利好：这仅仅表明 1. 复杂性的证明 = 护城河的验证。 像$NBIS这样的新型云做得更好，这是一个真正的竞争优势和利润率机会（这就是为什么$MSFT选择与Nebius签约而不是自建）。 2. 资本效率优势。 新型云使用租赁/托管以获得灵活性（例如NBIS在Patmos和Verne），并通过工作负载分配保持高利用率（而甲骨文在利用率上挣扎）。 3. 外包需求增加 如果甲骨文和超大规模云服务商在建设上遇到困难，他们可能会将工作负载转移到新型云并签署更多合同（例如MSFT与CRWV）。 4. 甲骨文在此使用了折扣价格。新型云可以在优化利润率的基础上进行理性定价。 5. 定制基础设施提高利润率 像Nebius这样的新型云拥有用于GPU调度的定制编排堆栈，大量内部软件和自动化以最大化利用率和产出，从而维持50-70%的毛利率，相比之下ORCL则不然。 这对甲骨文和超大规模云服务商的建设是利空，但实际上对$CRWV、$NBIS等专业新型云提供商是利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Why $ORCL facing challenges with GPU-as-a-Service (from leaks) is actually bullish for neoclouds like Nebius. Hyperscalers struggling with GPU economics strengthens the case for specalized neoclouds. This is an insane opportunity on $NBIS, $WYFI, $IREN, $CIFR, $CRWV and others: TLDR: (from rumors) Oracle faced a loss from: - Low utilization (idle capacity) before customer ramp - Massive upfront CapEx (Blackwell GPUs) - Heavy overhead - Discount pricing Result: Negative gross margins on GPU compute for Oracle. This is negative for Oracle, positive for Neoclouds: This is just goes to show 1. Proof of Complexity = Validation of Moat. Neoclouds like $NBIS do it better and this is an actual competitive moat and margin opportunity (This is why $MSFT went to Nebius to sign a deal instead of building it out themselves). 2. Capital Efficiency Advantage. Neoclouds use Leasing / colocation for flexibility (e.g. NBIS in Patmos & Verne), workload allocations to maintain high utilization (while Oracle struggled with utilization). 3. Outsourcing Demand Increases Oracle and Hyperscalers might shift workloads to Neoclouds and sign more contracts if they have trouble with buildout (eg. MSFT with CRWV) 4. Oracle used discount prices here. Neoclouds can just price rationally on top of optimizing their margins. 5. Custom Infra Increases Margins Neoclouds like Nebius have custom orchestration stacks for GPU scheduling, lot of internal software and automation to maximize utilization and yield to sustain 50-70% gross margins compared to ORCL. This is news negative for Oracle and Hyperscaler buildout but actually bullish for specialized neocloud providers like $CRWV, $NBIS, and others.
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分析NBIS、AMZN、SNAP等个股机会，看好AI基建及降息预期。
10月6日周一收盘思考： - $NBIS 是极好的逢低买入机会。早盘上涨5.78%后回落2.38%。从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的所有其他新云(Neoclouds)公司都守住了4%-14%+的涨幅。Nebius可能受期权资金流影响，预计很快会补涨，我维持 $225 的目标价(PT)。 - $AMZN, $META 是两只在未来2-3个月应跑赢大盘并补涨的七巨头(Mag7)成员。尤其是亚马逊。 - $SNAP, $RDDT 是两个不错的反弹标的。Snapchat尤其因为收入变现模式的改变。如果你有耐心持有股票一两年，我预期会有50%+的回报，只是取决于市场何时将其定价。并非每个人都有耐心，且将资金用于 $SNAP 而非新云(Neoclouds)的机会成本可能不划算。 关于Reddit，我一直认为ChatGPT引用是其暴跌29%的借口，所以我已买入。 - $SPRB 吸引了所有人的注意。我预计它将从7500万美元市值继续上涨至1.5亿-2亿美元，但这就像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，通常在重大事件后2-3天就会发生稀释。 - 像 $RKLB 这样的股票，只需持有哈哈。即使它是我最高信用的5年期长线标的，也确实高估了，但此时它可能会像 $PLTR 一样表现。 - $AMD 与 OpenAI 的交易对半导体行业极度利好。我预计 $TSM, $ASML, 能源股和新云(Neoclouds)将从AI基础设施建设中受益。主要的负面因素是 $CRWV，因为其对 $NVDA 的依赖，以及显然的NVDA本身，但新云(Neoclouds)并未锁定单一玩家，且已锁定5-10年以上的合同。 这仅对 $NVDA 的护城河理念造成微小影响，但尚无实质性影响。 我个人认为AMD可能会像 $ORCL 一样在反弹后回调，然后当市场开始计入远期收入时，像 $AVGO 一样表现。 话说回来，我不知道OpenAI从哪弄来这么多钱，承诺给Oracle、AMD等这些十亿或百亿美元的交易，如果它们估值只有5000亿的话哈哈。 - 黄金每天创历史新高，仅仅表明 $BTC 始终是好的买入标的，即使在 $123k，如果它最终成为对抗通胀的对冲工具。其市值约为黄金的1/10。 - $LTC 仍然是很好的买入标的，因为ETF获批。由于政府停摆，人们只是忘记了它尚未发生，但最终应该会获批。 - $VIRT 在 $32.5 是极好的买入，我会在这个区间进行成本平均（抱歉如果你在 $36 买了看涨期权，我的仓位下跌了约35%）。但再次强调，这是对VIX的非对称对冲（VIX隐含波动率很高用于对冲，VIRT被低估~6.3倍远期市盈率，有回购和低隐含波动率），所以即使仓位下跌，你的其他股票应该会上涨以平衡。 - 仍在研究其他受益于基础设施建设的能源股、小盘股如 $EOSE、存储如 $MU 等，这些是粉丝推荐的。我尽量不在自己充分了解前谈论太多。 - 如果你使用杠杆或做多，现在是时候了，直到一月。三次降息，市场可能正在提前交易十月的降息。
原推 ↗英文原文
Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts: - $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT. - $AMZN, $META two Mag7 that should outperform next 2-3 months and play catchup with the rest. Especially Amazon. - $SNAP, $RDDT two good recovery plays. Snapchat especially because of the revenue monetization changes. If you have the patience for shares for a year or two, I'd expect a 50%+ return, just whenever the market wants to price it in. Not everyone has patience and opportunity cost using the funds in $SNAP instead of Neoclouds might not be worth. Reddit I've maintained that the citations from ChatGPT is a BS reason for a 29% sell-off so I bought into it. - $SPRB caught everyone's attention. I do expect it to keep rising to a $150-$200m marketcap from $75m but it's like playing Russian Roulette, usually dilution happens 2-3 days after a major event. - Stuff like $RKLB, just need to hold lol. It's genuinely overvalued even if it's highest conviction 5Y long but at this point it might pull a $PLTR. - $AMD x OpenAI deal heavily bullish for semi industry. I expected $TSM, $ASML, energy stocks and Neoclouds to get a boost from AI infra buildout. Main negative ones were $CRWV, because of $NVDA dependencies and obviously NVDA, but Neoclouds aren't locked into one player, and they already have 5-10+ year contracts locked in. It just puts a tiny dent in the $NVDA moat idea but nothing material yet. I personally think AMD might pull an $ORCL where it dips past rally, and then ends up pulling an $AVGO when markets start pricing in forward revenue. Then again, I don't know where OpenAI is getting all this money to promise Oracle, AMD, etc. all these ten or hundred billion dollar deals if they're valued at 500B lol. - Gold rallying to ATH every day just signals that $BTC is always a good buy, even at $123k, if it ends up becoming a hedge against inflation. It's close to 1/10th the market-cap. - $LTC still a great buy because of ETF approval. There's the government shutdown so people just forgot it hasn't happened yet, but should get approved eventually. - $VIRT great buy at $32.5, I'd cost average around this range (sorry if you bought calls at $36, my positions are down 35% or so). But again it's an asymmetrical hedge to VIX (VIX IV very high for hedging, VIRT is undervalued ~6.3 forward p/e with buybacks an low IV), so even if positions are down, your other stocks should go up to balance it out. - Still looking into other beneficiaries of buildouts from energy stocks, small caps like $EOSE, memory like $MU, etc. that followers recommended. I try not to talk about something much until I'm informed myself. - If you're on leverage or going long, now is the time to do it until January. 3x rate cut, market probably frontrunning Oct rate cut now.
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交易对英伟达系利空，对AMD等供应链其他环节利好。
@yield_addicted 关于这笔交易，我认为总体偏负面：$NVDA、$CRWV（以英伟达为中心）。 总体偏正面（几乎其他所有标的）：$AMD、NBIS、CIFR、IREN、TSM 等。 护城河叙事逻辑发生变化，导致下跌 2.5% 是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yield_addicted For the deal, I'd say net negative: $NVDA, $CRWV (Nvda centric) Net positive (almost everything else): $AMD, NBIS, CIFR, IREN, TSM, etc. The 2.5% drop makes sense off moat narrative changes.
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给出NBIS不同价位操作建议，并提及随新闻重估。
@heaty70 对于 $NBIS，低于 $145 是强力买入，$145-$170 区间为买入/持有。很难给出确切数字，但鉴于我在该价位卖出了 CC（看涨期权），$170 以上我会转为持有/卖出。显然，我会根据 $META / $CRWV 等新消息每周重新评估其估值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@heaty70 Anything under $145 for $NBIS is a strong buy, $145-$170 Buy/Hold. Hard to give a figure but I'd switch it to hold/sell at $170+ since I did sell CC's at that strike. Obviously re-rating it weekly on new news like $META / $CRWV.
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对比CRWV与CIFR/NBIS在Meta交易后的表现差异及估值逻辑。
$CRWV 在 Meta 交易后并没有像 $CIFR 和 $NBIS 那样大幅下跌。 CIFR 与 NBIS 相当可比，因为它们的融资价格均高于当前市值约 40% 以上，且债务较低并拥有超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的交易。 这通常适用于同一行业且相对估值相似的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRWV didn't really drop after the Meta deal like $CIFR and $NBIS did though CIFR is pretty comparable to NBIS in the sense they raised ~40%+ above current values and low debt + hyperscaler deals This usually applies for companies in the same sector + similar relative valuations
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卖出CRWV获利，看好IREN/NBIS算力需求，拟重估CRWV长期价值。
我昨天以 $CRWV $122.5 买入，今天以 $138.1 卖出。纯粹是时机运气好。我还没来得及深入分析 META 的合同，但鉴于 META 和其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)目前急需算力，这对 $IREN 和 $NBIS 来说是非常看涨的。虽然我卖出了，但我吃完沙拉后可能会花一两个小时研究一下合同和估值。个人而言，我一直更喜欢其他新云(neoclouds)公司而非 CRWV，主要是因为债务利息问题，但也许 META 的合同会让我重新考虑将其作为长期持有标的，我需要进一步研究。
原推 ↗英文原文
I had $CRWV yesterday $122.5, and sold it $138.1 today. Just got lucky with timing. I didn't have enough time to do a deep dive into the META contract yet, but just because META and other hyperscalers are looking for compute now this is insanely bullish for $IREN $NBIS. I did sell but I'll probably spend an hour or two to look into the contract + valuation after I eat some salad. Personally I've always liked the other neoclouds more than crwv just cause of debt interest, but maybe the meta contracts would make me reconsider this as a long, ill need to look into it more
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建议对长期持仓进行正向定投，若估值未反映营收潜力则继续持有加仓。
@taleino93 补充一点，对于长期持有(long term holds)的标的，你应该进行正向定投(cost average up)。如果基本面利好显著，比如 $CRWV 之于 Meta 或 $NBIS 之于 MSFT，只要你认为上涨行情尚未完全反映未来的营收潜力，就继续持有并在回调时加仓。
原推 ↗英文原文
@taleino93 Adding on to this, for long term holds, you should cost average up. If it's materially positive like Meta for $CRWV or MSFT of $NBIS, just hold it and buy more if you think forward rev potential is not priced in from a rally.
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强调仓位管理重要性，举例说明分批建仓与波段操作策略。
谢谢！忘了在上面补充一点：投资组合配置极其重要，以防你时机把握不准或发生意外，从而能进行成本平均。例如，如果你有10万美元的投资组合，其中3万美元现金。$NBIS 从117美元跌至112美元时，你可以投入1.5万美元。如果从112美元跌至105美元，再投入1.5万美元。如果从105美元跌至95美元，你可以将那3万美元转为看涨期权。如果你仅持有股票且风险承受能力较低（例如25%的仓位分配），就不应该想“我应该全仓买入，因为它涨了3%”。你投资组合中25%的部分获得3%的利润已经很不错了。显然这只是例子，针对像NBIS这样高确信度的标的，我对$PATH 不太了解。对于像$CRWV 这样的标的，我昨天在跌至120美元时买入，然后在139-140美元左右卖出，并可能等待另一个入场点，同时持有其他新云厂商如NBIS。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! Forgot to add above that portfolio positioning is extremely important just in case you get timing wrong + something unexpected happens so you can cost average. So if you have $100 portfolio for example, $30k cash. $NBIS drops $117-> $112, you can do like $15k at that level. If it drops $112 -> $105, do another $15k. If it drop $105 -> $95, you can switch that $30k to calls. If you're doing only shares with less risk tolerance eg. 25% allocation, you shouldn't think "i should have full ported it went up 3%". 3% profit off 25% of your portfolio is already good. Obviously just examples, from something higher conviction like NBIS, I don't really know about $PATH. For something like $CRWV I actually bought yesterday on some drop to $120 then sold $139-140ish, and will likely wait for another entry point while I hold other neoclouds like NBIS.
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博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
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博主认为 Grok 对 NBIS、IREN 和 CRWV 的分析很准。
@grok @castorastuto Grok 对 $NBIS $IREN $CRWV 的分析相当准确，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@grok @castorastuto grok is pretty accurate with the analysis of $NBIS $IREN $CRWV lol
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对比CRWV高息债务与NBIS优越融资条款
@Veganhippo21 @DeepValueBagger $CRWV 的债务利率超过 9%，而 $NBIS 的融资条款要好得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Veganhippo21 @DeepValueBagger $CRWV has 9%+ interest rate on debt while $NBIS fundraising terms are miles better
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NBIS因微软大单、优质资产及强劲财务成为首选。
是的，$NBIS 是毫无悬念的首选。$170 亿的微软 (MSFT) 交易为期 5 年，因此收入爬坡最快，这还不包括更多交易。他们拥有大量优质公司，例如 30% 的 Clickhouse（Anthropic 使用）。资产负债表强劲（例如已筹集 $138 亿+，仅 $40 亿+），不像 $CRWV 那样有重大利息负担。NBIS 做全栈 (Full Stack)，业务更多元化，毛利率高。在 260 亿市值下，整体价值极其惊人。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah, $NBIS is #1 choice by a longshot. $17B MSFT deal was over 5 years so fastest revenue ramp, not including more deals. They own a ton of great companies like 30% Clickhouse, which Anthropic uses. Great balance sheet (eg. $4B+ raised $138+), no major interest like $CRWV. NBIS does full stack, more diversified businesses already, large gross margins. All-around such an incredible value at 26B.
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解析超大规模云厂商资本支出向NeoClouds转移的逻辑，看好NBIS等标的的高回报潜力。
NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入 150 万美元以上到 NeoClouds（新型云服务商），以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7（美股七巨头）合约方：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC（高性能计算）的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 设计使然。 原本流向 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，当它们无法处理来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，现在将漏斗式流入 NeoClouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于让 $NVDA 成为 4 万亿美元公司的 GPU 军备竞赛，关键在于未来 5-10 年为 AWS/Azure 等提供基础设施支持的是谁。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 170 亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 30 亿）、CRWV（由 NVDA 背书）都在以数百百分比的速度扩张（NBIS 季度收入从 1.5 亿增长到可能超过 15 亿），且拥有 60-80% 的毛利率。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模云厂商将资本支出漏斗式注入这些小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：超大规模云厂商获胜 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN 等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure 等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是如何获得数百百分比回报的方法，而不是在 Paypal 上进行价值投资。动量交易下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更偏向投机，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司有 40 多亿资金来执行） 人们总是担心执行问题，但如果微软或谷歌没有做自己的尽职调查，是不会签署如此大的 5-10 年合约的。 - 高利率（主要看你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 等具有惊人的回报潜力。 $NBIS 在每股 138 美元以上时有 40 多亿资金（现在是 107 美元）。$CIFR 在每股 16 美元以上时有资金（现在是 11 美元）。高于当前价格的资金是一个看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（有效的担忧，但这几乎像石油一样，即使是旧型号也保持了价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年规模达到 60 亿收入，75% 毛利率），260 亿市值非常小。 - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU 即服务并直接竞争。目前这些 NeoClouds 是 NVDA 防止对 Azure/AWS 等集中风险的答案。 - 定制超大规模云厂商芯片如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求 NVDA 算力并签署了 5-10 年合约。 无论如何，像 Nebius 这样的 NeoClouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然处于非常早期的阶段。确保像特朗普选举时的 Crypto/TSLA 或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样搭乘 NeoCloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会建议全仓 YOLO，但对于这些为 Google/MSFT 等（Mag7 的现金牛）提供 AI 工作负载的小型 5-200 亿 NeoClouds，风险与回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8 个月 - 1 年。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return. 🔹 Buckets Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH Miners pivoting to HPC: $RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT Thesis: Mag7 is AI compute strained, by design from $NVDA. Trillions of capex that normally flowed through AWS, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud for traditional compute, will now funnel into NeoClouds when they cant handle new AI loads from Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, etc. This is a once-a-decade opportunity, similar to the GPU arms race that made $NVDA a $4T company, on who powers the infra for AWS/Azure/etc for the next 5-10 years. NBIS (17B from MSFT), CIFR / WULF (3B from GOOGL), CRWV (backstopped by NVDA) are all scaling hundreds of percent (NBIS went from 150M quarterly revenue to likely 1.5B+) with 60-80% gross profit margins. This revenue growth is almost unheard in history. It's mainly because it's the wealthiest hyperscalers funneling capex into tiny companies. NVDA / TSM (2022->): GPU for hyperscalers CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): hyperscaler wins -> parabolic growth. NBIS/CIFR/IREN/etc (2025 - ) AWS/Azure/etc. -> parabolic growth from AI compute This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal. Momentum riding the next generational companies. So bear thesis usually involves around - Execution Risk (before it was more speculative, now companies like NBIS have 4B+ to execute) People can always worry about execution but Microsoft or Google would not be signing such large 5-10 year contracts without their own DD. - Large interest rates (mainly looking at you CRWV), that's why NBIS, CIFR, and others have potential amazing returns. You have 4B+ in funding for $NBIS at $138+ a share (when it's $107 now). And funding for $CIFR at $16+ a share when it's $11 now. ABOVE current price funding is a bullish tell. - GPU depreciation (valid concern but it's almost like oil, even older models kept their value and still deliver equity). - Valuation (I still think we're just getting started. If NBIS scales to 6B rev next year 75% gross margin), 26B marketcap is extremely tiny. - NVDA potentially launching their own GPU-as-a-service and directly competing. Right now these Neoclouds are NVDA's answer to preventing concentration risk to Azure/AWS/etc. - Custom hyperscaler chips like TPU, Trainium. But likely years away, since they're still begging for NVDA compute and signed 5Y-10Y contracts. Regardless these neoclouds like Nebius are really undervalued relative to forward revenue/gross margins. We're still very early. Make sure to ride the Neocloud wave like Crypto/TSLA with Trump election or NVDA with OpenAI release. Of course this is highly speculative and I wouldn't YOLO full port calls, but Risk vs. Reward on these little 5-20B neoclouds powering AI workloads for Google/MSFT/etc, the cash cows of Mag7, is worth it. (Trade time Horizon: 8m - 1 year.) This is the single best asymmetric AI infrastructure trade for 2025-2026.
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分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但更看好NBIS并计划加仓。
@__visionxry__ 一直在等待稀释消息，结果证明是利好，而非像 $CRWV 那样引发巨大的市场兴趣。 正如承诺给一位粉丝的那样，我进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是很好的操作。鉴于其资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（占比 -6.32%）以及宏观因素，这很可能是过度反应。 30 亿美元的合同期为 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的合同是 5 年 170 亿美元。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿美元以上稀释消息，0% 的兴趣率（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%）确实是利好。以 16.06 美元的价格发行，比当前市场利率高出 38% 以上。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上的债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后股价应该会上升。在接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比依然不错。 目前我仍然更看好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 30 万美元的 NBIS，我可能会少量买入 CIFR，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@__visionxry__ Was waiting for dilution news and turned out to be positive rather than large interest that $CRWV did https://t.co/9B5OXuk0J2
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分析CIFR稀释利好及低债优势，但认为NBIS更具投资价值。
应粉丝要求，进一步研究了 $CIFR。在股价下跌 17.54% 时买入是个好机会。考虑到宏观因素，加上资产负债表上持有 1,414 枚比特币（-6.32%），这很可能是过度反应。 $30 亿的交易为期 10 年，相比之下 $NBIS 的 $170 亿交易仅为 5 年。刚刚（1 小时前）公布的 10 亿+ 稀释消息，且利率为 0%（不同于 $CRWV 的 9%），这其实是利好。当前价格 $16.06 高于市场利率 38%+。 这就是正确的稀释方式。 资产负债表上债务也很低，虽然可能还会有更多稀释，但之后应该会上涨。接近该数值时可能会有短期压力，但风险回报比仅针对股票而言是很好的。 目前我仍更偏好 NBIS > CIFR，可能会在这些价位再买入 $30 万 NBIS，CIFR 可能会买一点点，但它依然是一家很扎实的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
As promised to a follower, looked into $CIFR more. Good buy on the 17.54% drop. It's ikely an overreaction due to the fact they had 1,414 BTC (-6.32%) on the balance sheet on top of macro. $3B deal was over 10y, compared to $NBIS $17B for 5 years. 1B+ dilution news just now (1h ago), 0% interest (unlike $CRWV 9%) is really positive. It's at 38%+ above current market rate at $16.06. This is how you do dilution. Very low debt on balance sheet too, there's probably going to be more dilution too but should rise afterward. There's likely going to be short term pressure approaching that number but risk-return shares only is good. As of now I'd prefer NBIS > CIFR though and would probably just buy another $300k worth of NBIS at these levels, I'll probably buy a tiny bit but still a solid company.
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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类比Coinbase与Robinhood，看好NBIS超越CRWV，IREN暂无巨头订单
@NeuralCadence $COIN 就像 $CRWV 的等价物，为该板块的公司设定了市值标杆。 $NBIS 就像 $HOOD，拥有更健康的资产负债表、更多元化的客户群等。 我认为 $NBIS 将在一两年内超越 $CRWV，就像 $HOOD 超越 $COIN 那样。 $IREN 目前还没有与“七大科技巨头(Mag7)”的合作协议。
原推 ↗英文原文
@NeuralCadence $COIN is like the equivalent of $CRWV, setting the mc for companies in the sector. $NBIS is like $HOOD, better balance sheet, more diversified customers, etc. I think NBIS will overtake CRWV in a year or two like how HOOD took over COIN. $IREN doesn't have mag7 deals yet
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看好NBIS一年期表现，RKLB适合五年长持，除非短期暴涨。
@__visionxry__ $NBIS 是我在1年周期内最高确信度的股票。 我更愿意在5年周期内持有 $RKLB。 除非它像 $CRWV 那样随机在短期内暴涨600%，否则持有一年以获取长期资本利得是明智的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@__visionxry__ $NBIS is highest conviction stock I have for a 1 year timeframe. I'd be more willing to hold $RKLB on a 5Y timeframe. Holding a year for long term capital gains is smart unless it randomly pulls a $CRWV and goes up 600% in a short amount of time
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推荐全仓NBIS，因其风险低、估值优且增长潜力大。
@soulbiri1 说实话，$NBIS 是少数几只我会放心建议朋友全仓买入的股票之一。相比 $IREN 投机性更低，估值优于 $CRWV，未来增长潜力高于 $ALAB。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Honestly $NBIS this is one of the only stocks I'd be fine telling a friend to full port. Less speculative than $IREN, better valuation than $CRWV, future growth higher than $ALAB.
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NBIS和CRWV是英伟达护城河关键，当前市值低估其远期收入。
这与 $NVDA 及其 GPU/ASIC（谷歌云 TPU、AWS Trainium）的 4T+ 论点相同，即超大规模云服务商能否取代英伟达。同样的逻辑也适用于 $NBIS。如果微软能如此快速地自建，他们不会签署 170 亿美元、为期 5 年的合同。如果你阅读了我的深度研究(DD)，NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保持护城河的战略解决方案。CRWV 和 NBIS 有助于防止超大规模云服务商掌握全部议价权，并阻止 Azure 等未来整合算力并压缩利润率。NBIS 有助于维持英伟达的护城河，这也是数百亿美元的合同收入开始从“七巨头”流向新云提供商的原因。250 亿美元的市场资本化与远期收入不匹配。
原推 ↗英文原文
That's the same 4T+ thesis with $NVDA and their GPUs/ASICs (Google Cloud TPUs, AWS Trainium) when hyperscalers could replace Nvidia. Same applies to $NBIS. MSFT wouldn't sign a 17B 5 year contract if they could build it out themselves this fast. If you read my DD, NBIS, $CRWV are Nvda's strategic solution to keeping their moat. CRWV, NBIS helps keep hyperscalers from having all the leverage + prevent Azure, others from consolidating compute and compressing margins down the road. NBIS helps maintain NVDA's moat and why hundreds of billions contracted revenue is already starting to flow from mag7 to the new neocloud providers. 25B marketcap does not align to forward revenue.
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分析CRWV、NBIS及RKLB的股价潜力与时间框架
$CRWV 在3个月内从$41涨至$183，但部分原因是流通盘(less float)较小。 如果$NBIS 第四季度财报(Q4 earnings)大超预期，加上最乐观情境下的三次降息，我们可能看到它从$99涨至$225，否则我认为需要1年时间。 $RKLB 是我在5年维度上最看好的，但他们还需要额外两年时间用于中子火箭(Neutron)项目。
原推 ↗英文原文
$CRWV went from $41 to $183 in the span of 3 months but part of that was less float. We could see $NBIS similarly from $99 to $225 by March if they have a Q4 earnings blowout along with triple rate cut in the best scenario, but otherwise I'd say 1 year timeframe. $RKLB I like the most on a 5 year timeframe, but they do need an extra two years for Neutron.
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NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
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作者基于英伟达支持、微软大单及宏观降息，将NBIS仓位扩至百万美元，目标价225美元。
关于我将 $NBIS 仓位扩大至 100 万美元以上且目标价定为 225 美元的原因思考： 核心逻辑 ______ 当微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL) 和 Mag7 巨头成为你的客户时（就像 ALAB 或 CRED，我在它们股价低于 100 美元时重仓，或者在 $NVDA、AVGO 或 TSM 起飞之前），公司的未来增长可能会以百分之几百的速度爆发。 历史上几乎没有哪家公司像这样被 Mag7 巨头所依赖。 此外，当英伟达 (NVDA) 也有充分动机推高你的股价时…… NBIS 成为更强的买入标的，是我未来 1 年时间内信心最高的选择。 护城河 + 对英伟达至关重要的 GPU 租赁商 _______ 英伟达看到其他超大规模云厂商如 AMZN、GOOGL 正在构建自己的芯片并减少依赖。 对策？构建 GPU 租赁商（如 CRWV），通过持股和融资，使 Azure/Cloud/AWS 无法取代英伟达。 GPU 的获取越来越多地通过这些租赁商进行，正如我们在 OpenAI 身上看到的，他们不再拥有来自微软的算力，不得不转向谷歌。 谷歌的算力也不够，因此转向 WULF 等公司。微软转向 CRWV、NBIS 等公司，大型科技公司的算力需求向下游这些 GPU 提供商流动。 英伟达有充分理由推高 CoreWeave 和 NBIS 等 GPU 租赁商的估值，以对冲超大规模云厂商自研芯片的风险。 如果没有算力，数十亿美元将流向 NBIS，而英伟达在背后支撑他们。 宏观顺风 _______ Polymarket 已定价 3 次降息。 如果你看过我的另一篇帖子，十年才有一次的三次降息（对流入市场的流动性极其有利）+ 年底季节性因素，这对股票是积极的。 此外，NBIS 市值相对较小，且依赖融资/债务增长。当利息负担下降时，融资成本降低，扩张看起来更可行。 NBIS 的估值 heavily 基于未来收益，随着降息预期，来自微软和其他客户的数十亿美元收入预期将被上调。在昨天的美联储会议后，我们即将看到剧烈的重估。 公司对比 ________ 如果让我选择 NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF -> 其他，权衡潜力与投机性。 CRWV - 英伟达明确支持，市值已达 630 亿美元+。可能涨得更高，但考虑到 NBIS 拥有微软合同、类似的积压订单等，而市值仅为前者的一半多，这就是我选择 NBIS 的原因。 $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR 等 - 比特币矿工转型算力。我喜欢它们，但它们还没有像微软那样提供去风险化保障。 WULV - 我喜欢它们因为谷歌支持，但 NBIS 的可转债条款和相对于潜力的市值更好。 基本面 ______ 市值：247.8 亿美元（对比 CRWV 的 610 亿美元，后者今年仍下跌 30%），现在拥有类似的收入积压订单，轻松达到相同市值（每股 243 美元+）的潜力很大。 到 2026 年，计入微软交易后，NBIS 总收入可能达到 50-60 亿美元，毛利率强劲（≈70%）。 在 2027-2028 年，如果基础业务（非微软部分）也激进增长，总收入可能达到 80-100 亿美元+。所有这些都伴随着 ~60-75% 的毛利率。 这很疯狂，但主要是因为英伟达支持这些 GPU 公司。基于估值，NBIS 比 CRWV 更具吸引力，且比没有微软背书给予 170 亿美元的 IREN 等其他公司投机性更低。 杂项思考 ___ 他们已经筹集了 41 亿美元+，并为 170 亿美元的微软合同确保了资本支出。这是最大的去风险化事件，也是为什么我在 90 美元+ 投资 NBIS，而不是在 50 美元时投资更投机的标的。 可能还有其他来自超大规模云厂商的合同即将到来。我认为轻松路径是到 140 美元，然后可能因可转债转股下跌，再涨到 200 美元。 可能还有我没提到的细节，如几年后的利润率压缩、运营收入折旧风险等。 但这正是我投资决策的核心（宏观、基本面、行业增长、护城河+激励措施），与波段交易相比，这也是为什么 NBIS 是未来一年高信心标的的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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建议买入垄断且低估的台积电，因其他AI股均依赖其代工。
如果你在纠结 $ORCL 对比 $AMZN | $GOOGL，$AMD | $AVGO 对比 $NVDA，$NBIS 对比 $IREN 对比 $WYFI 对比 $CRWV 这很简单。直接买入 $TSM，上述所有公司都依赖于它。 估值偏低且拥有垄断地位，基于未来增长 + 边缘推理(Edge Inference)的资本支出，市值有望从 1.3 万亿美元 -> 1.8 万亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're debating $ORCL vs. $AMZN | $GOOGL, $AMD | $AVGO vs. $NVDA, $NBIS vs. $IREN vs. $WYFI vs. $CRWV It's easy. Just buy $TSM, everything above is dependent on it. Undervalued and a monopoly, will likely run from $1.3T -> $1.8T MC based on forward growth + capex from ERs.
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降息预期推动成长股反弹，机构提前布局，年底指数或涨5-8%。
分析一下这意味着什么：短期内，这对成长股(growth stocks)非常有利，因为成长股对利率(rates)高度敏感。 像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS、$IREN、$ALAB、$CREDO 这样的许多股票将创历史新高，而 $HIMS、$CRWV、$SMCI、$MRVL、$TSSI 等股票也将恢复至历史高点(ATH)。 机构今年提前押注了“九月疲软”(September weakness)（大约在比特币达到 12.4 万美元时），因此随着降息预期叠加，股票在 9 月初再次上涨。 由于今年早些时候因关税(tariffs)和高通胀(high inflation)导致市场大幅崩盘，标普 500 指数 ETF (SPY) 的表现并未超越往年，因此我们可以看到指数在年底前再上涨 5%-8%。 17 日的降息几乎板上钉钉，所以机构正在提前布局(front-running)。散户可能认为降息当日股票会上涨，但实际消息公布后可能会导致抛售(selloff)。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just an analysis on what this means: short term, it's great for growth stocks = since growth stocks have high sensitivity to rates. You have a lot of stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS, $IREN, $ALAB, $CREDO that will hit all time highs or with $HIMS, $CRWV, $SMCI, $MRVL, $TSSI, and others, recovering to ATH. Insitutions frontran "September weakness" this year (Around the time BTC reached $124k), so stocks climbed again early SEPT due to rate cut on top of it. SPY hasn't really outperformed previous years either with the massive market crash earlier this year from tarrifs + high inflation so we can see index go up another 5%-8% by EOY. Rate cut is almost certain on the 17th, so institutions are front-running it. Retail probably thinks stocks go up on rate cut date, but the actual news might lead to a selloff.
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UPWK启动回购，低估值高利润，无视季节性风险。
$UPWK 刚刚宣布启动 1 亿美元的股票回购计划，回购规模约占其流通股的 5%。 让我们再次重申以下几点： 1. 市值约 20 亿美元，年营收 7.73 亿美元，毛利率 77.8%。 2. 拥有巨额现金储备，盈利能力强，市盈率约 9 倍。扩张中的利润率 + 新业务收购并未反映在远期营收预期中。 如果你担心 $RKLB、$CRWV、$IREN、$HIMS、$WULF 等 9 月份的高贝塔股票，当你的市值如此低且正在“印钞”时，季节性因素就不重要了。 Upwork 可能是当前市场中被低估且利润极其丰厚的股票。
原推 ↗英文原文
$UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program. Let's reiterate this one more time: 1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins. 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue. If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money. Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.
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关注IREN，类比NBIS，看好矿企转型AI的投资机会。
在 $IREN 涨至 $30+ 后，我仍在关注它。这让我想起 $CRWV 大幅上涨后的 $NBIS。 有什么能阻止 $MARA、$RIOT、$CIFR、$CLSK、$HUT 等从比特币(BTC)转向人工智能(AI)吗？ 这可能是一个绝佳的投资机会。https://t.co/1HJSHsiPml
原推 ↗英文原文
Still looking @ $IREN after it's rise to $30+. Reminds me of $NBIS following $CRWV's massive rise. There's nothing stopping $MARA, $RIOT, $CIFR, $CLSK, $HUT and others from pivoting from BTC into AI right? Might be a great investment opportunity. https://t.co/1HJSHsiPml
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博主列出各领域高增长潜力股，预测5年千倍回报。
基于当前估值，我5年1000%回报的“登月”组合(Moonshot baskets)。 太空 - $RKLB (2200亿) AI - $CRWV (4700亿) 半导体(Semi) - $CREDO (2000亿), $TSSI (38亿) 加密货币(Crypto) - $BKKT (18亿) 金融科技(Fintech) - $DJT (490亿) 社交(Social) - $BMBL (62亿) 健康(Health) - $HIMS (950亿) 软件(Software) - $UPWK (190亿) 你们的选择是什么？
原推 ↗英文原文
My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?
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推荐SG等7只股票的波段机会，警示避开CRCL等3只股票的下跌。
目前有一些不错的超跌反弹/波段交易机会： 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 远离这些下跌（不要抄底）： 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
原推 ↗英文原文
Some decent recovery/swing trades right now 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 Stay away from these dips 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
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买入$CRDO，视其为$ALAB对标股，看好其超高速增长潜力。
刚买入价值10万美元的$CRDO，因为它是一家与$ALAB类似的公司，且正以惊人的速度增长。两者处于相似的市场细分领域，且$CRDO上周下跌了8%。通常这类股票会同步上涨（例如$CRWV和$NBIS）。无论如何我都会持有，因为它是一家稳健的超高速增长公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just bought $100K worth of $CRDO as it's a similar company to $ALAB and also growing at insane rates. Similar market segments and it dropped 8% last week. Usually things rise together (eg. $CRWV + $NBIS). I'd hold anyway as it's a solid hyper growth company. https://t.co/v4kI2fb1Ef