· 业绩复盘
当然，我很尊重 Aschenbrenner，他大多数多头，比如 $BE 和 $LITE，都非常优秀。我最近也很少再看到像 Situational Awareness 这样水平的基金。 但话说回来：我非常不同意单独看多 $CRWV 和 $IREN。 如果我站在反方来看： $IREN 有很多原始产能。去年我看多，是因为大家都以为他们可以通过轻资产 colo 把它货币化。 但他们选择了高度稀释的 ATM 和 GPU 路线来变现。我仍然认为他们也可以做 colo，而且不需要碰 ATM；只是我觉得这种可能性很低。 $CRWV、$NVDA 和美国政府也许会继续给它托底，降低下行风险和传染性。 他们的软件编排做得很漂亮……
Sure, I have a lot of respect for the Aschenbrenner, vast majority of his longs like $BE and $LITE are stellar. I haven't really seen a fund like Situational Awareness in awhile. That being said: strongly disagree with $CRWV and $IREN individually. If I'm playing devils advocate: $IREN has a lot of raw capacity. Last year I was long since everyone thought they could monetize that through asset-lite colo. But they chose heavily dilutive ATMs and GPUs to monetize that. They still can do colo and not tap into the ATM. I just thought that's very unlikely. $CRWV, $NVDA and US Gov might just keep it backstopped and lower downside risk/contagion. They've nailed software orchestration for high margins and have real backlog/revenue. Then they can always figure out a way to refinance. Macro in general just doesn't favor capex heavy companies right now.