$NVDA
观点汇总
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博主 Serenity 对英伟达 (NVDA) 的核心论点经历了从“直接持有”到“规避风险、转向下游”的演变。早期他将 NVDA 视为 AI 军备竞赛的核心受益者，类比其从 1500 亿至 4 万亿市值的爆发力。然而，随着时间推移，他担忧超大规模云厂商（如 AWS、Azure）自研芯片及定制 ASIC 对 NVDA 护城河的侵蚀，认为这会导致利润率压缩。因此，他明确建议 9 月降低对 NVDA 等高贝塔股的敞口，并在 10 月将其列为“持有”而非“强烈买入”。他看重的供应链瓶颈已转移至“新云”（NeoClouds）及代工环节，认为 NVDA 为维持垄断地位，正通过扶持 NBIS、CRWV 等 GPU 租赁商来分散风险并锁定需求。同时，他极度推崇台积电 (TSM) 作为所有 AI 基础设施的绝对瓶颈与垄断者。在操作层面，他未明确表态完全离场 NVDA，而是采取“持有”策略，将资金大幅转向他认为更具非对称回报潜力的 NBIS、TSM 及 ALAB 等标的，以规避 NVDA 面临的直接竞争威胁。
相关推文
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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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富士康拟联合投资以解决CW激光器等光子学瓶颈。
让人想起 $NVDA 与 $LITE + $COHR 的情况： 富士康（Foxconn）正在考虑联合投资，以避免上游材料短缺。 富士康互连技术董事长指出，连续波(CW)激光器和光纤是光子学领域最大的瓶颈。 看到这两个主题在行业评论中被反复提及，非常有趣。 几乎就像 X 上某个动漫角色关于 CW 激光器瓶颈的说法是对的。
英文原文
Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR: Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages. Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics. Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commentary. Almost like a certain Anime character on X was right about CW laser bottlenecks.
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NVDA半数员工身价超2500万，证明其未因宏观恐慌而抛售。
作为明天美联储决议前的一点打气数据：据报道，$NVDA 50% 的员工身价现已超过 2500 万美元。他们并非通过在每次宏观恐慌或加息前抛售（paperhanding）股票才达到这一数字的。
英文原文
Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g
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AI算力需求长期锁定，短期恐慌不影响整体建设。
$IREN CEO 在 Anthropic 关于前沿模型放缓的通话中表示：“即使模型从此不再改进……仅部署现有能力所需的算力，也将超过世界未来数年能构建的总和。”我同意，当前叙事让人想起 $NVDA DeepSeek 抛售潮或 $GOOGL TurboQuant 恐慌。结果如何？这些每年发生一两次的恐慌最终都被证明对整体 AI 建设无关紧要。尤其是当我们的需求合同已涵盖从先进封装到内存采购直至 2030 年代的整个周期时。
英文原文
$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.
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甲骨文GPU高溢价续租证伪快速折旧论，利好AI算力租赁及英伟达。
虽然是周末，但我惊讶于自己错过了 $ORCL 财报中的这一信息。这对 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的影响相当积极，因为：甲骨文表示所有用于续租的 GPU 容量均以高于此前合同 20% 的溢价被重新售出。大部分设备机龄在 4 年以上……因此，这再次证伪了 Burry 关于 GPU 快速折旧的论点。而 $NVDA 和 Neocloud 阵营则赢了。
英文原文
It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.
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高盛在最近的一份报告中上调了全球光模块市场预测：- 2026年：677亿美元（上调33%）- 2027年：1314亿美元（上调81%）- 2028年：1485亿美元（上调115%）对于 $NVDA Rubin Ultra，高盛增加了其模型中每GPU的光模块数量：1.6T：0 -> 2；3.2T：3 -> 5。高盛还将2027年1.6T及以上产品的预测提高了61%……这也非常重大，预计硅光子( Silicon Photonics )渗透率为80%。因此，每芯片的光学内容更多 = 更多的连续波(CW)激光器，更多的绝缘体上硅(SOI)衬底，光学公司日子好过。
英文原文
Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to: - $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026 - $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 - $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028 For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical modules per GPU: 1.6T: 0 -> 2 3.2T: 3 -> 5 GS also raised their 1.6T and above forecast for 2027 by 61%... so that's also very material, with 80% silicon photonics penetration rate estimated. So more optical content per chip = a lot more CW lasers, more SOI substrates, happy optical companies.
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NVDA/AVGO受供应限制，AI技术突破，巨头受益。
让我理清一下，各位……你们拥有： $NVDA 70% 的营收增长预测受限于供应瓶颈（若无限制将超 100%） $AVGO AI 营收未来两年同比增速超 100%，从约 500 亿美元增至 2300 亿美元 OpenAI Astra 大幅超越 AGI 基准并开始自我训练。 $MSFT / $GOOGL
英文原文
Let me get this straight chat… you have: $NVDA 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+) $AVGO AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself. $MSFT / $GOOGL
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NVDA收购Hugging Face属防御性举措，因CRM等已接触。
@Shiboo9019 这 partly 是一次防御性收购。据报道，$CRM 和其他公司开始接触 Hugging Face 寻求收购后，$NVDA 才开始了谈判。
英文原文
@Shiboo9019 it's partly a defensive acquisition. $NVDA talks started after $CRM and other companies were reportedly approaching Hugging Face for an acquisition.
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调侃微软和英伟达的吉祥物偏好，指出无人愿选鲸鱼。
@nosallynoparty 这是因为 $MSFT 喜欢猫，而 $NVDA 喜欢笑脸符号。没人想要鲸鱼作为吉祥物。
英文原文
@nosallynoparty it's because $MSFT likes cats and $NVDA likes smiley faces. nobody wants a whale as a mascot
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英伟达129亿美元收购Hugging Face，类比微软收购GitHub。
$NVDA 以 129.303 亿美元收购 Hugging Face。 Jensen 陈述收购原因为： - 1800 万+开发者使用 Hugging Face - 300 万+模型，50 万+数据集，100 万+应用 - 20 万+公司使用该平台 - 支持开放权重模型 这几乎让我想起 $MSFT 收购 Github？
英文原文
$NVDA acquires hugging face for $12,930,300,000. Jensen stated the reason being: - 18M+ devs use Hugging Face - 3M+ models, 500k+ datasets, 1M+ apps - 200k+ companies use the platformm - support of open weight models this almost reminds me of $MSFT buying Github? https://t.co/8FhE7b9mU0
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非高增长AI巨头财报后遭抛售，博主将分析CRDO。
@wannabepanacea 如果你不像 $NVDA 或 $AVGO 那样受产能限制且每年增长 70-100%，显然财报发布后你会遭遇抛售。 稍后会看看 $CRDO 的财报，要跟踪的公司实在太多了。 https://t.co/b7KBFFSqvB
英文原文
@wannabepanacea If you're not capacity constrained and growing 70-100% a year like $NVDA or $AVGO, apparently you'll get sold off on earnings. Will take a look at $CRDO earnings in a bit, there's quite a lot of companies to track. https://t.co/b7KBFFSqvB
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英伟达受产能制约，实际增速低于无约束潜力。
$NVDA 告诉摩根大通... 如果不受产能限制，其营收同比(Y/Y)增长可能超过 100%。 但最终给出的增长预测约为 70%，因为这是英伟达认为其能够供应的水平。 FY27 预估：营收约 4010 亿美元... FY28：按 70% 增长约为 6820 亿美元，或在不受限情况下超过 8020 亿美元。 - 英伟达投资者关系 https://t.co/6cKhZn3frV
英文原文
$NVDA told JP Morgan... That their revenue could increase more than 100%+ Y/Y unconstrained. But ended up giving a ~70% growth projection because that's what Nvidia believes they can supply. FY27 est: ~$401B revenue... FY28: ~$682B at 70% or >$802B unconstrained. - Nvidia IR https://t.co/6cKhZn3frV
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台湾半导体表现优异，Foci 快速复苏，质疑财报无视宏观。
值得注意的是，台湾的表现远远超越世界其他地区，如美国/欧盟。 Foci（$NVDA / $TSM FAU 供应商）股价从 400 -> 900 -> 400 -> 800，且在 7 月后恢复得极快。 不确定像 Etron 或其他公司的财报是否荒谬到完全无视宏观环境？https://t.co/WHzwj9n6e8
英文原文
Very interesting to notice Taiwan wildly outperform the rest of the World like US/EU. Foci ($NVDA / $TSM FAU supplier) went from 400 -> 900 -> 400 -> 800, and recovered insanely fast from July. Not sure if earnings like Etron or others are just absurd to not care about macro? https://t.co/WHzwj9n6e8
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梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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看好NVDA高增长及类似半导体ETF的持仓结构
@lijiu163076 $NVDA 明年将以产能受限的 70% 速度增长，这好得离谱。 我的观点是，投资英伟达很难出错，因为它几乎就像一只半导体 ETF？他们现在持有 $INTC、$MRVL、$LITE、$COHR、$NBIS 和联发科的不错份额。
英文原文
@lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good. My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now.
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Anthropic签350亿算力大单，前沿模型需求远超供给能力。
Anthropic 与由 $NVDA 支持的 Lambda 签署了价值 350 亿美元的 AI 算力协议。 $HUT / 数据中心，搭配 Lambda / GPU。 前沿模型的需求正在迅速超越生态系统构建容量的能力。 看起来 Anthropic 正在锁定更多算力……下一家被选中的新云/colo 玩家是谁？ https://t.co/49yvFKjr49
英文原文
Anthropic signs a $35B AI compute deal with $NVDA backed Lambda. $HUT / DC, with Lambda / GPUs. Frontier model demand is rapidly outpacing the ecosystem's ability to build capacity. It also looks like Anthropic is securing more compute... Which neocloud/colo player is next? https://t.co/49yvFKjr49
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无视宏观波动，因AI资本支出强劲且需求失衡，坚持做多AI核心标的。
宏观环境显然在过去几个月削减了高贝塔AI的估值。但我试图专注于基本面。 如果你好奇我的看法： 我们看到了创纪录的长期协议(LTA)可见性： - 存储(至2031年)、光子学(至2029-2030年)等 - $NBIS、$SOL等，尽管资本支出巨大，但算力需求仍存在巨大失衡。 - 加上创纪录的预测（$NVDA 2027年增长70%，$SMCI新增服务器订单超600亿美元等）。 对比： 令人不安的宏观环境： - 沃什表示，如果核心通胀未明确回归2%，美联储“还有更多工作要做”。 - 7月PCE同比为3.7% - 7月就业报告新增就业减少2.3万，失业率4.1% - 10年期美债收益率高企/30年期创2007年以来新高 - 伊朗紧张局势持续 - 日元跌至160/韩国两次加息 且近期加息25个基点的概率为40/60。 这肯定会对融资产生影响，且第三/四阶效应太多，我个人无法完全映射。 我不是宏观专家，但我的看法是： AI建设将继续，预计明年上游投入超1.3万亿美元资本支出，流经许多瓶颈和卡点。 虽然市场削减了远期估值并转向当前盈利/防御性公司。 我不知道会发生什么，尤其是加息概率几乎五五开，且特朗普的帖子可能一夜之间改变情绪。 只要我没看到超大规模云厂商削减资本支出或需求波动的迹象。 尽管宏观波动，我保持做多，因为我想持有控制AI建设未来格局的公司。 如果宏观环境有任何好转迹象，高贝塔股通常恢复最快。
英文原文
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals. If you're curious about my take though: We're seeing record visibility with - memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs - $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend. - combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc). vs. uncomfortable macro where: - Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%. - July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y - July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1% -10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007 - Iran tensions continuing - Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes. There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map. I'm not a macro expert but my take is: The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints. While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated toward currently profitable/defensive companies. I don't know what's going to happen, especially since rate hike odds are almost a coinflip, and Trump posts can change sentiment overnight. As long as I don't see indicators of hyperscalers cutting capex or demand wavering. I'm staying long despite macro volatility, since I want ownership of the names controlling the future of the AI buildout. And if there's any indicators of better macro climates, high beta are typically the fastest to recover.
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英伟达投资联发科巩固推理地位，或促使AMD与博通结盟。
没错，$NVDA 投资 35 亿美元进入联发科(Mediatek)。 这感觉像是英伟达(Nvidia)正在扮演下一代专用集成电路(ASIC)赢家如 $MRVL / 联发科(Mediatek)的“造王者”，其二级效应是侵蚀 $AVGO 的地位。 这一策略 playbook 类似于他们此前针对像 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 这样的新云厂商(Neoclouds)（相对于超大规模云项目）所采取的做法。 帮助培育下一代领导者，然后使它们在财务和战略上与英伟达保持一致。 我认为这很精彩，但此类举动可能会促使 $AMD、$AVGO 和某些超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)走得更近。 无论如何，此举巩固了英伟达在推理(inference)领域的战略地位（此前超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 曾是长期的看空论点）。
英文原文
Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek. It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position. Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CRWV (vs. hyperscaler cloud programs) Help create the next leaders, then make them both financially and strategically aligned with Nvidia. I do think it’s brilliant, but moves like this might push $AMD, $AVGO, and certain hyperscalers closer together. Regardless this move cements Nvidia’s strategic position in inference (where hyperscaler ASICs were a former long-term bear case).
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英伟达投资联发科，整合ASIC生态并确立标准以对抗博通。
今天，$NVDA 宣布向联发科投资 35 亿美元。看来英伟达正通过“结网”融入更广泛的 ASIC（专用集成电路）生态系统，从 $MRVL 到联发科。并让未来的生态系统与英伟达标准保持一致。（也许也是为了抵御 $AVGO）
英文原文
Today, $NVDA has announced a $3.5B investment into Mediatek. It appears Nvidia is "networking" itself into the broader ASIC ecosystem, from $MRVL to MediaTek. And have future ecosystems aligned with Nvidia standards. (maybe to fend off $AVGO as well) https://t.co/okdGKS51U3
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三星锁定70%产能至2031年，反驳内存泡沫论。
“内存是泡沫。”那么请解释一下这个，KOSPI看空者： 据报道，三星已通过长期协议(LTA)与$NVDA、$MSFT和$GOOGL等主要交易对手，锁定了其至2031年约70%的内存产能。 五年的需求可见性…… https://t.co/GUGWTkXkMc
英文原文
“Memory is a bubble.”Explain this then, KOSPI bears: Samsung has reportedly reserved ~70% of its memory production capacity through 2031 via LTAs with $NVDA, $MSFT, and $GOOGL as main counterparties. Five years of demand visibility… https://t.co/GUGWTkXkMc
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AI周期虽有局部泡沫，但以NVDA和TSM为核心的结构性趋势将持续加速。
@Omardrisss 更广泛的AI超级周期（如前沿实验室估值、部分Neoclouds）中存在泡沫。偶尔会有些局部回调。但以$NVDA和$TSM为核心的整体主题看起来是结构性的，并将持续加速上行。
英文原文
@Omardrisss There’s bubbles within the broader AI supercycle (eg. frontier lab valuations, some Neoclouds). And some pop here and there. But the overall theme with $NVDA and $TSM in the center of it all looks structural and would keep ramping up.
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NVDA指引超预期，AI供应链瓶颈环节将迎来爆发。
提醒AI看空者：$NVDA 预测2027年超大规模云厂商支出将达1.3万亿美元。较2026年约8000亿美元大幅增长，尽管产能仍受限，营收增速仍达约70%，远超华尔街此前约45%的预期。这些资本支出流向AI供应链……从存储、网络到晶圆代工厂。尤其是那些未从旧世代中受益的新瓶颈/卡点环节。我们就像派对刚开始2小时，大家起初喝的是札幌生啤。有人往情境(Situational)的酒里加了烈酒，我们不得不暂停派对30分钟。但现在派对重启，桌上摆满了龙舌兰酒。我认为真正的狂欢即将开始。
英文原文
FYI to the AI bears: $NVDA projects $1.3T of hyperscaler spend for 2027. Up from ~$800B in 2026, alongside ~70% revenue growth despite remaining capacity constrained… far above prior Street expectations of ~45%. That capex flows across the AI supply chain… from memory and networking to foundries. Especially through the new bottlenecks/chokepoints that didn’t benefit from older generations. We’re like 2 hours into the party where people started off drinking Sapporo draft beer. Someone spiked Situational’s drinks and we had to pause the party for 30 min. But now it’s back on with tequila shots on the table. I think the real party is about to begin.
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总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
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DRAM产能转向导致短缺，ESMT因垄断利基市场而受益。
简单总结一下： 有个叫 $NVDA 的家伙食量巨大。英伟达只想从农民手里买高价土豆。 土豆农 $MU 原本卖胡萝卜……现在把农田改种土豆了。 英伟达导致了一场严重的土豆饥荒，因为它吃得太多。所以其他种胡萝卜的，比如 SK 海力士和三星，都把产能转去种土豆了。 但是……人们仍然需要吃饭。胡萝卜是日常健康饮食的一部分。 现在除了像“ESMT”这样的传统胡萝卜农，没人种胡萝卜了。 所以现在大家都从 ESMT 买胡萝卜，导致短缺，价格上涨。 所以 ESMT 需要更多胡萝卜种子（来自 PSMC）。但 PSMC 的胡萝卜种子也快不够用了。 所以 PSMC 向 ESMT 收取更高的种子费。 但 ESMT 卖胡萝卜的价格远高于 PSMC 提高的种子成本。 现在……ESMT 卖胡萝卜赚得足够多，基于7月财报的交易市盈率仅为1.9倍。 ESMT 能一直卖胡萝卜到2027年吗？ 其他所有农民都这么认为，因为把宝贵的土豆农场改回胡萝卜农场既困难又缺乏动力。
英文原文
Okay just to simplify this: There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers. A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos. Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato. But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet.. Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer. So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up. So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots. So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds. But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price. now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings. Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027? All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.
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AMKR短期靠高价填补缺口增收，主要扩产预期在2028年。
@piyush1337 $AMKR 现有传统封装产能（如在菲律宾）利用率不足，如果那 20%+ 的缺口属实，可能会以更高价格填满，这对近期营收来说是“哗哗”进账。我仍认为主要扩产将在 2028 年初，一旦亚利桑那州的 $TSM + $NVDA 业务起飞。
英文原文
@piyush1337 $AMKR has existing traditional packaging capacity underutilized (like in Philippines), so if that 20%+ deficit is true Probably fills that up at higher prices so that's brrr to nearer term revenue. I still think the main ramp is early 2028 with Arizona once their $TSM + $NVDA stuff takes off.
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存储需求呈结构性短缺，看好板块远期估值上升。
所以……回到存储这边，我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示：“我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示：“我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 闪存都存在结构性的巨大需求”，非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%。 $NVDA 表示供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动……与此同时，存储定价处于“极端”水平且还在继续上涨。 Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论。 我之前就说过，存储需求看起来是结构性的，而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM 高带宽内存，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年…… 所以我确实认为，整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会。
英文原文
所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%. $NVDA 表示 供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平 而且还在继续上涨. Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论. 我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年.. 所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.
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博主认为 $SIVE 凭借广泛的光子学客户验证和稀缺产能，是极具性价比的首选标的。
不，$SIVE 是我见过的最独特的 10 亿美元市值光子学公司。仅针对 AI 数据中心： - 为 $GFS SCALE（共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块）提供参考激光器 - 披露了 7 项可插拔模块合作，其中 $JBL 为主要放量客户（H1 2027 时间表） - 与 O-Net 的外部激光源(ELS)路径 - 与 $POET 的 ELS 路径 - 向 Ayar 提供用于 CPO I/O 的激光器（现属 $NVDA nvlink 生态系统） - 为 $AEVA 提供激光器（其已与超大规模云厂商的光引擎供应商达成 NPO 协议） - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence（可能是 2023/2024 年的客户） - 与 Lightium 合作在薄膜铌酸锂(TFLN)上集成磷化铟(InP)激光器 此外，它在行业短缺期间拥有两项实质性的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器产能分配。也是业内少数几家 CPO 级激光器供应商之一。告诉我这个市值范围内还有哪家拥有如此多的持续资格认证、巨大的潜在市场(TAM)且身处光子学领域。就相对于行业内的资格认证路径而言，$SIVE 是我心中的第一选择。
英文原文
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
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反驳将万亿市值英伟达与早期光子学公司直接对比的观点。
@Ingeltun 也许是因为 $NVDA 是一家市值超过 5 万亿美元的公司。 然后你把它和一家处于资格认证阶段、市值 10 亿美元的光子学公司做比较，而该公司的所有产能爬坡都发生在 2027/2028 年。
英文原文
@Ingeltun Maybe because $NVDA is a $5+ trillion dollar company. And then you're comparing that to a qualification stage $1B photonics company where all their ramps happen 2027/2028.
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博主维持存储看多，减仓美光等高位股，转配光子学及低位传统存储。
我一直对2026-2027年期间的存储（Memory）持看多态度，涉及 $MU / 三星 / $SKHYNIX。即使听完 $NVDA 财报电话会，观点依旧不变。我一直极力辩护高端存储需求是结构性的，且对营业利润（Operating Income）有巨大的经营杠杆（OP）效应（尤其在伊朗紧张局势影响LNG/氦气时）。英伟达财报再次证实了我们对极端需求的认知，因为承诺支出从1190亿美元飙升至2790亿美元，主要由存储采购驱动。英伟达CFO也表示：“我们正经历存储的极端定价环境。”关于我的操作，2026年上半年我在存储板块极度超配：包括 $MU, $SNDK, 群联(Phison), $SIMO, 南亚(Nanya), Macronix, 华邦(Winbond) 以及 $EWY / 三星/海力士（涵盖HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。除了保留三星/海力士的多头头寸外，我减仓了其他持仓，因为我认为许多标的已重新估值（例如美光从$300涨至$1000+）。我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经结束，现在只是等待营业利润跟上（尤其是三星）的博弈期。我利用这段时间超配了光子学（Photonics）。但我认为我们正看到新一轮的涨价潮向下传导至“传统中的传统”存储如DDR2/DDR3，随着华邦等传统玩家退出部分领域。当价格涨幅最终达到环比40-60%时，这让我想起了当年 $SNDK 在DDR2/DDR3领域的极端行情。因此我开始建立 ESMT（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）和 Etron 的头寸。也许我们会在传统存储堆栈的更底层看到价格发现时刻（可能我会错），但这是我近期关注的领域。
英文原文
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
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NVDA需求远超70%，但受限于产能仅能实现70%营收增长。
@JonahLupton $NVDA 表示需求远超 70%。只是他们的产能仅允许实现 70% 的营收增长，这太荒谬了。https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU
英文原文
@JonahLupton $NVDA stated demand is much greater than 70%. It's just that their capacity allows them to deliver 70% revenue growth, which is absurd. https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU