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整理32家英伟达800V供电相关公司供研究，非投资建议。
回复 @ark_btc：我整理了粉丝提到的32多家与 $NVDA 800V直流供电(800V DC) 相关的公司，并以简明格式发布出来供大家研究。哈哈，并非我的推荐。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ark_btc I compiled 32+ different names related to $NVDA 800V DC mentioned by followers. And posted them in a simple format for people to do research on. Not my recommendations lol.
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英伟达点名硅光子与存储，利好SiPH供应链。
此外，$NVDA CEO 也把硅光子(Silicon Photonics，光网络)和存储一起点名。 他表示，英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对硅光子(SiPH)供应链是非常看多的读出，从 $SIVE（现在处于英伟达上游生态）到 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
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英伟达称存储短缺多年延续，支撑美光和韩系存储盈利。
看吧……$NVDA CEO 警告称，由于 AI 基础设施需求大规模扩张，存储短缺预计会持续多年。 明天还会有进一步公告。 $MU 以及 $EWY（三星/SK海力士）的营业利润预测，现在看起来也没那么疯狂了？
原推 ↗英文原文
Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
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筛选小公司时应重点审视有毒融资和流通盘结构。
当然，第一重要的是有毒融资结构和流通盘动态。 最好的例子是当前 Neocloud 云算力公司的格局： - $IREN 基本上是垃圾，因为它有60亿美元 ATM，几乎是无限稀释，并且很可能在每次反弹时卖出，形成结构性压制。 - 相比之下，$NBIS 年初至今已经上涨153%+，原因是结构最优，比如 $NVDA 直接融资、可转债组合等。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款为 GPU 融资，背着无休止的债务利息。 这件事非常细，但你必须看流通盘动态。 如果它们确实是好公司，那么在现有持有人被稀释到极致之后做多，可能反而是好主意。 但如果你关心自己的股权增值，就应该远离有毒融资结构或有毒压制因素，例如长期侵蚀公司自由现金流(FCF)的债务利息。 小公司经常有这类问题，比如 $SLNH，在2.5亿美元市值上又有新的5亿美元 ATM。 或者像 $BKKT，不断稀释来支付高管薪酬。 在这些公司里，当网红们谈论它们时，你基本上是在把自己的钱转移给公司。所以这些都是危险信号。 很多软件公司，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利能力掩盖股权激励(SBC)。所以公司表面上看起来盈利，但由于稀释，你很可能会看到自己股权价值下降。 筛选投资想法时，需要检查的股权结构类型非常多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
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长文阐述XFAB作为欧洲CPO硅光子代工的潜在重估机会。
好吧……周末再随便想一些关于 $XFAB 的东西。 我仍然觉得它可能成为下一个 $TSEM，只是现在还处在早期阶段，市值约14亿美元？ 他们有点跳过了当前一代技术（$TSEM 正在从中获得出货量），转而竞争2027年下半年 CPO 放量拐点。$ASX 文件提到 Xfab（也就是 photonixFAB）专注于 CPO。 他们正在搭建某种像黑魔法一样的 MTP（转移印刷）激光架构，并结合 TFLN 等其他东西。 基本上这是下一代集成 IP。当然，他们的良率仍然落后。 但 $NVDA 正在评估它用于收发器/交换机，看它能否实现批量爬坡。而 $NOK 负责制定这些交换机/网络设备的规格和组装（顺便说一句，英伟达也投资了诺基亚，和这些交换机/网络有关）。 如果他们的 MTP 供应链跑通，比如 Smart Photonics 提供激光器、欧洲厂商负责组装，那么它基本上会随着 $NVDA 一起放量，就像 Nvidia 当初为什么和 $TSEM 签长期协议一样。 下行风险呢？ 它已经低于重置账面价值，当然还能更低，但通常会有一个限度。 未来几个月也许会有更多 CHIPS Act 2 补贴。如果 CPO 不顺利，还有 SiC（同比增长152%，SiC 晶圆出货同比增长195%）和 GaN 功率半导体的上行空间。 欧洲人或大模型会说：“哦，评估并不代表未来合同！” 但这次有点不同，因为欧盟站在这项努力背后，$XFAB 也涉及主权光子供应链。 这不是典型的公司与超大云厂商评估，因为 $NVDA 也想对欧洲监管者保持友好。如果英伟达只留在美国/台湾/中国，欧洲大概会很生气。 所以，如果他们能把这种 MTP 黑魔法做成并实现量产，几乎可以确定 Nvidia/Nokia 会让这家小小的14亿美元硅光子代工厂参与放量，至少也会给他们一些较小合同。 从时间线看，也许只是早了几个月，因为放量在2027年下半年/2028年上半年，这刚好和 CPO 扩产时间线一致。 也可能只是市场还没搞懂，因为他们把项目命名成 photonixfab 这种奇怪名字？ 如果叫 XFAB Photonics 可能会更好，让机构和筛选器在寻找 CPO 硅光子代工厂时更容易把点连起来。 汽车业务中期也应该走出低谷，并受自动驾驶加速。台积电董事长昨天评论称，AI 汽车和机器人一样是台积电的增长向量。所以它的核心业务中期也应该重新加速。 显然，市场和欧洲投资者想看到的是“英伟达签署20亿美元以上合同，XFab 2027年放量！” 但到那时，它就会是一家90亿美元以上的公司，你也就错过所有上行空间了。尤其是现在分析师和机构对这些放量预期几乎是盲的。 我通常不投资仍在评估阶段的公司，但这次看起来受到欧盟主权和政府支持显著去风险；如果 IP 做得出来，还有 Nvidia 和 Nokia 带来出货量。 我认为市场很可能漏掉了什么……它作为欧洲 CPO 敞口的长期上行价值，几乎还没有被定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB. I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC? They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO) By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN. Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure. But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw). And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly). It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM? Downside risk? Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point. Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside. Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!". This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains. Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China. So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts. In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)... Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab? Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players? Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term. Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!" But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these.... Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work. I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.
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讽刺短期宏观下跌后卖出长期硅光子想法。
回复 @Jornka329996： > 上周发了一个关于2027年硅光子代工、被 $NOK 和 $NVDA 评估的想法 > 几天后因为宏观下跌就卖出 > 然后抱怨
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 > posts an idea about a 2027 silicon photonics foundry evaluted by $NOK and $NVDA last week > sells on macro drop few days after > complain
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长期更偏好英伟达上游瓶颈而非NVDA本身。
回复 @darkseidzz：嗯，长期看，相比做多 $NVDA，我更喜欢你所有的上游瓶颈环节，因为这些会被重估得最多（英伟达已经是世界最大公司）。 我很确定，超大云厂商 ASIC 最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求，比如 $GOOGL 的 TPU、$AMZN 的 Trainium 项目。
原推 ↗英文原文
@darkseidzz hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too
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点评市场回调中高beta科技股大跌与媒体叙事。
市场回调真有意思。 龙头从 $NVDA 下跌4.87%，到 $MU 下跌7.03%。像 $PL 这样的高 beta 名字下跌22.02%。 看到媒体总是试图这样解释很有趣： “博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录市值蒸发。” 博通预计……
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected https://t.co/D1cE7sjKBs
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列出其偏好的CPO/光子学供应链标的。
$SIVE 是第1，$AAOI 是第2，上面措辞用错了。 总体上我喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔/CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源组件，$TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装/测试） - Win Semi（代工） - $TSEM（代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器/笼式热管理模块） 还有其他几个。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
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给出1.6T可插拔与NVLink CPO生态放量时间线。
2027年上半年，是所有 1.6T 可插拔玩家，比如 $JBL。 也许 Innolight/Eoptolink 和其他可插拔玩家也会加入。很快会知道，因为 $SIVE 说他们正在与一些未披露的可插拔玩家合作。 2027年下半年，则是 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态里 Ayar 等玩家的主要 CPO 放量应用。 市场通常会提前约8个月前瞻定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar. Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.
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重申XFAB是去风险的2027/2028硅光子前商业化多头。
回复 @Jornka329996：你是嗨了吗？我这周刚写过 $XFAB。 它与 $NVDA 和 $NOK 相关的硅光子平台会在2027年下半年/2028年放量。 我认为它是一个已经大幅去风险、商业化前的多头机会，看起来像下一个 $TSEM，并且还有 SiC/GaN 上行空间。 只是需要时间。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.
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调侃黄仁勋将见Faker，并回忆曾与其聊游戏和GPU短缺。
这条时间线变得越来越不真实了…… $NVDA 的黄仁勋要见 Faker（英雄联盟选手）。 几年前我确实和 Jensen 聊过 PUBG 以及挖矿导致的 GPU 短缺。 他对跨平台游戏的想法，以及获得足够配额来……非常热情。
原推 ↗英文原文
This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to https://t.co/GoYNi0hPDY
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认为内部人卖股本身不改变基本面。
回复 @AngelSagiri：我对每只股票都重复过这一点：内部人卖股字面上不代表任何东西。 无线业务董事总经理把所有权转给美国投资者，并不会改变这家公司任何业务基本面。 $NVDA 和 $MU 的 CEO 一直在卖股，但没人眨眼。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AngelSagiri I’ve repeated this for every single stock, but insider selling means literally nothing. A managing director of wireless transferring ownership over to US investors doesn’t change any fundamentals about the business. CEO of $NVDA and $MU sell shares all the time but nobody bats
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称SIVE是最近最明显、仍在重估的CPO激光瓶颈。
回复 @_king142：$SIVE 可能是最近最明显、仍在重估中的激光器瓶颈，因为它似乎出现在每个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态伙伴以及 merchant/ASIC CPO 供应链里。 也许下一个是 CPO 中的无源光组件供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_king142 $SIVE was probably the most recent visible laser chokepoint that’s still being rerated since seem to be in every $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem partner + merchant/asic cpo supply chains. Maybe passive optical components supply chains in CPO next.
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记录博通财报电话会与网络/互连长期机会。
关于 $AVGO 财报电话会的一些随手笔记： - 重申收入目标（2027年1000亿美元以上，我很确定市场原本希望这次财报上调这个目标，所以股价下跌）。 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋关于 $MRVL 围绕网络/连接/互连成为1万亿美元公司的评论吗？ - ……
原推 ↗英文原文
Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - https://t.co/JRiucvNnqc
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没预期英伟达今年入股Marvell，但看好其ASIC/连接收入机会。
回复 @WEB3_furture：好文章！我其实没想到 $NVDA 今年会与 $MRVL 合作并入股。 但无论如何，我本来就预计 Marvell 会因为即将到来的 ASIC/连接收入机会而成为一个有吸引力的想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.
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说明讨论的是ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO生态伙伴而非英伟达自身。
回复 @siflower：那是 $NVDA 直接相关。我说的是 ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO 生态伙伴。 在这些伙伴里，$SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.
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通过Ayar投资关系推导SIVE在CPO供应链中的确认。
回复 @Uri62223094：这是供应链确认。我知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资者，所以我会假设他们想要某种类似 NVLink 生态的战略合作。 $AMD 也投资了 Ayar，所以 $AMD 选择 $GFS 做 CPO，也让人能通过 Ayar 把1+1和 $SIVE 连起来。 联发科和 $INTC……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Uri62223094 its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC
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认为NVDA CPO生态第一代可能大量以SIVE为主供。
回复 @OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong：Celestial 和 Lightmatter 尝试多源采购是预期之内。 但我猜第一代里，$NVDA CPO NVLink 生态很多会由 $SIVE 单一供应/主供应。 英伟达自己也有与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的项目。
原推 ↗英文原文
@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.
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梳理NVDA CPO生态中SIVE作为激光供应商的确认度。
回复 @Chi_w_wong：$NVDA CPO 生态 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天加入）。 $SIVE 100% 确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 很高概率是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 都使用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是参考激光器。 Sivers = ……
原推 ↗英文原文
@Chi_w_wong $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers =
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暗示某光子学公司成为NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO生态上游激光瓶颈。
哇……今天发布了一个极具转折意义的新消息。 这让某家光子学公司成为： $NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO 生态的事实上的上游激光瓶颈。 它们的激光器现在进入了 Nvidia 的光基础设施供应链。 有人能猜到名字吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today. Making a certain photonics company: The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem. With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains. Can anyone guess the name?
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称SIVE成为NVDA NVLink Fusion生态激光供应商是重大新闻。
回复 @beauty_oe：我知道！$SIVE 成为 $NVDA NVLink Fusion 生态的激光供应商，这是非常大的新闻。 Marvell 几个月前加入后，看看它市值发生了什么。 我今天晚些时候会讲。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!
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认为XFAB像早期TSEM，具备Nvidia/Nokia验证和政府补贴。
说实话，$XFAB 有点让我想起早期的 $TSEM。 只是市值低于20亿美元。 你基本上很少能找到一家低于20亿美元的公司，拥有 $NVDA 和 $NOK 正在主动验证其商业化前硅光子代工平台（photonixFAB）。 同时还能获得 CHIPS Act / 政府补贴来补贴资本开支。 还在引领……
原推 ↗英文原文
Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the
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暗示某光子学玩家成为CPO/可插拔/SiPH标准激光器。
一家公司的整个历史中最具后果的事件。 今天由一家光子学玩家发布。 这让它成为 CPO、可插拔和 SiPH 的功能性标准激光器。 适用于使用该代工厂的 $NVDA、$AVGO、$AMD 到 $MRVL 等公司。 有人知道名字吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?
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称GFS新闻比SIVE+JBL更根本，因为默认嵌入参考设计。
回复 @wangxindian @StormDirac：我不确定人们是否已经意识到这条 $GFS 新闻对 $SIVE 的重大意义。 它在基本面上可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更具开创性。 因为 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA 或任何通过 GFS 硅光子的公司，都会默认把 $SIVE 嵌入参考设计。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.
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黄仁勋称MRVL是下一家万亿美元公司，作者持有Marvell。
$NVDA 黄仁勋： “$MRVL 是下一家1万亿美元公司，女士们先生们。” Marvell 目前市值1910亿美元。 我持有 Marvell……但我们对 Jensen 带来5倍空间有多大信心？
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D
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NVDA/西门子/FLNC为Vera Rubin N72开发参考电力架构。
$NVDA、西门子和 $FLNC 为 Vera Rubin N72 开发参考电力架构。 这发生在 FLNC 可能即将获得两个超大云厂商交易的时候。 如果你想知道它为什么涨36%，就是这个原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA, Siemens, and $FLNC develop reference power architectures for Vera Rubin N72. This comes at the time FLNC has 2 likely hyperscaler deals coming up. Just in case why you’re wondering it’s up 36%. https://t.co/8f4gAhJeTE
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认为光子学市场是跟随龙头的算法卖出，忽视个体基本面改善。
当前光子学市场主要只是“跟随龙头”的算法卖出。 大多数激光/光学相关公司，从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，似乎都和 $LITE 表现绑定在一起…… 尽管个体基本面正在改善。例如 AOI 与 $AMD / $NVDA 的讨论。 算法不会……
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s mainly just “follow the leader” algorithmic selloff in current photonics markets. Most laser/optical related companies from $AAOI to $SIVE seem tied to $LITE performance… Despite individual fundamentals improving. Eg. (AOI with $AMD / $NVDA discussions). Algorithms don’t https://t.co/gBm50DRqFj
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围绕XFAB、800VDC、GaN/SiC和西方供应链做移动端思考。
一些手机上随手写的关于 $XFAB 的思路： 1. $NVDA 推动 800VDC，寻找 GaN/SiC 玩家和功率半导体。 2. $NVTS 和其他受益于 $NVDA 推动的 fabless/fab-lite 公司，可能使用代工模式。 3. 相比亚洲供应链，我更关心西方供应链……
原推 ↗英文原文
Just some mobile shower thoughts around $XFAB and train of thought: 1. 800vdc $NVDA push look for GaN/SiC players / power semis. 2. $NVTS and other fabless/fab-lite beneficiaries of $NVDA push probably use foundry models 3. care more about Western supply chains over Asia,
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暗示台北GTC/Computex将揭示下一个AI瓶颈，可能在日本低估值公司。
在台北 $NVDA GTC/Computex 上： 我认为我们会听到下一个 AI 瓶颈。 它由一家市净率0.6倍、拥有180年历史的日本“土豆农场”公司拥有。 它的老板在夜市把那些土豆以每个160日元卖出。 但同样的土豆农场设备……
原推 ↗英文原文
At $NVDA GTC/Computex in Taipei: I think we’ll hear about the next AI bottleneck. That’s owned by a .6 P/B potato farming company in Japan, with a 180 year history. Their owner cooks those potatoes in night markets for 160 yen a piece. But that same potato farming equipment
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复盘ARM从134涨到354，并关注NVDA发布ARM处理器。
难以相信 $ARM 在我建仓后直接从134美元涨到354美元。 这些名字很酷的 AI CPU 带来约150亿美元年收入，当时看起来有点疯狂。 在 Computex 上，$NVDA 看起来也将发布新的 ARM 架构处理器。 Counterpoint 显示它们……
原推 ↗英文原文
Can’t believe $ARM went straight from $134 to $354 when I took positions. The ~$15B annual revenue coming from these cool name AI CPUs seemed a bit insane at the time. At Computex, looks like $NVDA is unveiling new ARM based processors too. Counterpoint them shows them https://t.co/47B0u9OWkq
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列出黄仁勋“你们现在太富了”评论涉及的供应链伙伴。
“你们现在太富了” $NVDA ETF。 这些只是 Jensen 用那句话举杯致意的一部分供应链伙伴： TSMC（TSM）- 1.95万亿美元 Micron（MU）- 1.10万亿美元 Delta - 2022.8亿美元 Amphenol（$APH）- 1830亿美元
原推 ↗英文原文
The “You’re So Rich Now” $NVDA ETF. These were just some of the supply chain partners Jensen made a toast to with that comment: TSMC (https://t.co/ihVngJn3CV / TSM) - $1.95T Micron (MU) - $1.10T Delta (https://t.co/nxy6qVoi97) - $202.28B Amphenol ( $APH )- $183.00B https://t.co/khJTATSxIl
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认为搭载NVDA硬件的微软PC有机会挑战苹果，但Windows UI太差。
热观点：考虑到 $MSFT 笔记本/PC 现在很可能使用 $NVDA 硬件。 他们也许有机会击败 $AAPL。 前提是 Windows OS UI 不要和 Apple OS 的干净程度相比像一堆燃烧的垃圾。 你会以为一家3万亿美元公司到现在应该更懂 UI 设计了？
原推 ↗英文原文
Hot take: Given $MSFT laptops/PCs are now likely using $NVDA hardware. They might have a shot of taking down $AAPL. Only if Windows OS UI weren’t a flaming pile of garbage compared to how clean Apple OS is. You would think a $3T company would know better UI design by now? https://t.co/OvysxCN21i
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即使AAOI已130亿市值，因激光瓶颈和2027收入爬坡更看多。
考虑到最近所有激光瓶颈，我实际上比 $AAOI 在20亿美元或60亿美元市值时，更看好现在130亿美元市值的 $AAOI。 我也认为市场错过了关于它可能与 $NVDA 或 $AMD 签订长期供应协议的分析师注释。 如果他们预测2027年上半年4.71亿美元……那是荒谬的爬坡。 当然，6亿美元 ATM 是短期压制。 只是等待时间的问题？因为这更多是能否跟上需求。 所以问题更多是他们能生产多少。 它大概是我现在持有的、最喜欢的美国本土光子学多头。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Than I was back at $2B or $6B. I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD. If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… that’s absurd ramp. But of course the $600M ATM is a short term overhang. Just a matter of waiting time? Given it’s more about keeping up with demand… So more of a matter of how much they can make. Probably my favorite US-based photonics long stock now that I own.
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感谢路透和彭博中性报道XFAB，但强调800VDC、NVDA/NOK评估和CHIPS催化。
感谢路透和彭博今天对 $XFAB 更中性的报道。 不过如果能更多聚焦我提出的结构性 thesis 会更好…… 围绕 800VDC 功率半导体的 $NVDA 敞口，以及正在进行的 $NVDA / $NOK 光子学评估。 以及 CHIPS Act 半导体主权作为近期催化。 而不是围绕新型信息综合带来的波动。 你知道的，我花很多时间看监管文件，寻找市场错过的有吸引力东西。
原推 ↗英文原文
Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…
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长文反驳XFAB是迷因股，强调CHIPS资金、SiPH评估、800VDC功率半导体和低估值。
媒体兄弟……$XFAB 怎么会是迷因股？ 这次能不能不要重复 $RPI 的错误？ 它们字面上因为自身关键性正在获得欧盟 CHIPS Act 资金。 并且有 $NVDA / $NOK 在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们以约1.28倍低市净率交易。 这让我想起 $SOI：低市净率，但传统业务拖累之外有高增长垂直领域。 $XFAB 下周在 CHIPS Act 2 蓝图中被明确提到，而该蓝图聚焦光子学。 主要收入爬坡围绕 $NVDA 推动 800VDC 带来的功率半导体。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 等最近都在起飞。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它是功率半导体里知名度较低的代工厂……但美国商务部两年前就指出它是美国唯一高量 SiC 代工厂。 我只是刚好指出了这些连接。 不要因为你不理解某件事，就把它叫作“迷因股”，说价格脱离基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
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认为光子学无新闻下跌是有吸引力主题的波动，自己在加仓。
今天光子学无新闻下跌挺有意思？ $LITE -4.95% $AAOI -4.85% $SIVE -14.8% $SOI -5.73% $AXTI -8.13% $IQE -12.13% 我认为它可能是未来最有吸引力的主题（甚至超过功率半导体）。 只是上涨途中往往非常波动。 不过我对 $AAOI 有些惊讶，因为显然有机构报告提到与 $AMD 或 $NVDA 的长期协议（Rosenblatt）。也许6亿美元 ATM 限制了近期上行。 $SIVE 也是，考虑到下周 EU Chips Act 2 围绕光子学，而它们列在蓝图中。下周还有 MSCI/NASDAQ OMX 资金流入。 我个人一直在加仓，因为我对光子学主题（尤其是 CPO）有高信念，原因是未来两年整体 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
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XFAB兼具光子学和功率半导体，EU CHIPS Act 2是催化。
$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）是一个有趣的多头想法，市值12.8亿美元，我已经建仓。 考虑到 EU CHIPS Act 2 今天是欧洲光子学玩家的催化。 > 通过 $NVTS + $POWI，拥有 $NVDA 推动下的 800VDC 功率半导体敞口。 > 硅光子 / CPO……
原推 ↗英文原文
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O
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指出自己建仓的是XFAB，兼具Nvidia功率半导体和光子学敞口。
这就是我个人喜欢并持仓的公司。 绝对不是 $DPZ。 但某种程度上让我想起 Soitec。 功率半导体 / SiPH 两边都对 Nvidia 生态有敞口。 光子学方面正在通过 Nvidia 评估。功率半导体敞口通过 NVTS 和 POWI，约1.29倍市净率，欧盟 CHIPS Act 受益者。美国 CHIPS Act 资助也在进行中。 约12.8亿美元市值，应该会受益于今天作为催化的 EU CHIPS Act 第二轮。
原推 ↗英文原文
This was the company i personally liked + have positions in. Definitely not $DPZ. But kinda me of Soitec in a way. Power semi / SiPH exposure both to Nvidia ecosystems. Photonics side eval through Nvidia right now. Power semi exposure through NVtS and powl, ~1.29 p/b, EU chips act grantee. US chips act grant ongoing. ~$1.28B MC, should be beneficiary of eu chips act round 2 today as a catalyst
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暗示有一个与NVDA相关但不像NVTS直接被提到的功率半导体标的。
有一个非常有吸引力的名字被人点出来了。 我最后为了功率半导体敞口建仓。 它与 $NVDA 高度相关，但不像 $NVTS 那样被直接提到。 有人能猜到吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s one very compelling name someone called out. That I ended up taking positions in for power semi exposure. Heavily tied to $NVDA but not directly mentioned like $NVTS. Can anyone guess?
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称美光最终达到1万亿美元市值，像下一个NVDA。
现在……$MU 终于达到1万亿美元市值。 我确实说过，考虑到 AI 下存储需求看起来是结构性的，它像下一个 $NVDA。 这只股票从80美元涨到887美元，可能造就了很多百万富翁。
原推 ↗英文原文
And now… $MU finally hits a $1 Trillion marketcap. I did say this looks like the next $NVDA given how memory demand looks structural with AI. This stock probably made a lot of millionaires going from $80 to $887. https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c
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Sivers通过Aeva成为Boston Dynamics的激光供应商，CPO技术是物理AI开发核心
有趣的事实：同一家公司经常出现在不同的供应链中。一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为上游激光供应商，通过以下路径供应给 Boston Dynamics：Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW（CW DFB 激光器）-> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics。我个人最初其实是因为4D AI而看好Aeva的。偶然发现Sivers是他们4D FMCW激光雷达的高置信度激光供应商。所以你实际上可以在光子学领域获得机器人曝光，而用于超大规模数据中心AI的同款CW激光器也在使用。虽然近期收入增长可能是$SIVE通过Aeva为$NVDA自动驾驶汽车相关架构供应激光器批量增长。人形机器人可能要到2028年？你总能得到更多间接曝光，比如MU的内存或$INTC的边缘CPU，但当然也有更直接的曝光方式。我觉得之前已经覆盖过很多名字了，比如$VPG或Harmonic Drive。但可笑的是，CPO玩家如$SIVE其实是前沿物理AI开发的核心部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.
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黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
原推 ↗英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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众包800VDC功率半导体十倍股。
好了大家，来众包你们在功率半导体交易中最高信念、只看10倍潜力的多头股票。 尤其考虑到 $NVDA 正推动转向 800VDC。 类似 $NVTS 或 $WOLF，但只要高 beta、10倍潜力，全球范围都可以。 你选什么？
原推 ↗英文原文
All right chat, crowdsourcing your #1 highest conviction (10x only) stock long for the Power Semi trade. Especially given $NVDA pushing shift to 800 VDC. Stuff like $NVTS or $WOLF, but high-beta, 10x potential only. Anywhere around the world. What's your pick? https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC
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认为FOCI不会成为500亿公司，但可因光组件/FAU规模化结构性重估。
回复 @_juicebox99_：我不认为 FOCI 会成为500亿美元以上的公司。 它们专注于一件事，比如为 $TSM / $NVDA 做光组件 + FAU，并规模化生产。所以这很可能驱动与市值相关的结构性重估。 这和美国公司通过 TAM 扩张成为1000亿美元以上公司的模式不太一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company. They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC. Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.
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认为6月1日NVIDIA台北Computex/GTC演讲可能利好台湾光学生态。
如果你想提前布局下一个重大催化： $NVDA 6月1日 Computex/GTC Taipei 主题演讲，应该会对台湾光学生态非常看多？ 就像我在 Nvidia 美国活动时做多 $TSEM 和其他公司一样。 Shunsin、Foci、Nextronics、MSScorps，以及我 Nvidia 光子学生态组合里的很多名字，可能会在那里被关键提及或获得间接催化。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in case you want to frontrun the next major catalyst: $NVDA June 1 Computex/GTC Taipei keynote should be heavily bullish Taiwan optical ecosystem? Just like when I went long on $TSEM and others in Nvidia’s US event. Shunsin, Foci, Nextronics, MSScorps, and a lot of my Nvidia photonics ecosystem port might be critical mentions or have indirect catalysts there.
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解释为何关注SIVE并购：早期客户后来成长为数十亿美元公司，Sivers懂得收购光学IP。
如果人们还没意识到为什么我如此关注 $SIVE 的并购。 Sivers 的潜在客户曾经是： Lightmatter 很小时 -> 成为40亿美元以上公司。 Lightelligence 很小时 -> 成为100亿美元以上公司。 Ayar 很小时 -> 现在由 $NVDA、$AMD 等资助。 Celestial 很小时 -> 被 $MRVL 收购并成为其增长向量。独立估值可能会超过100亿美元。 我极其确定 Sivers 知道该收购什么光学 IP。 它们只是卡在 Catch-22 中，原本缺少资金，尽管拥有最有价值的激光瓶颈之一。 未来 NASDAQ 上市和近期增长，现在解锁了下游 IP 收购潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.
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梳理玻璃基板光刻胶、ABF瓶颈和关键矿物供应链。
一些随机笔记： 关于玻璃基板：“YC Chem 据称成为业内首家供应玻璃基板光刻胶的公司”（KR 112290）。 - 目标年底量产，通常量产 + 首发对股价有利。 “目前正与三家以上公司洽谈玻璃基板材料供应”，所以还有更多认证。 “Samyang NC Chem 也在开发玻璃基板光刻胶材料”（482630）。 - 正在送样，明年量产，是另一个玻璃基板名字。 “$NVDA 可能通过长期协议、预付款或战略合作提前锁定高端基板产能，目标是避免 CoWoS 和 HBM 过去出现的供应限制重演。”这与 $TSM COUPE 基板有关。 “Commercial Times 强调，AI GPU、ASIC 和 CPO 需求可能在2027年前触发另一轮高端 ABF 基板短缺。” 所以还有更多基板瓶颈。 另外还有：“中国同意解决美国对稀土和关键矿物短缺的担忧，特别是钇、钪、钕和铟。” 如果你想找多头想法，可以研究钇、钪、钕和铟供应链。 现在一切都在回调，但如果你对更多随机想法感兴趣，这是值得关注的东西。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just some random notes: For glass substrates: "YC Chem has reportedly become the first in the industry to supply photoresists for glass substrates" (KR 112290) - targeting EOY mass production, usually mass production + first to market is good for stock prices. "is currently in discussions with more than three companies regarding the supply of glass substrate materials" so more qualifications. "Samyang NC Chem is also developing photoresist materials for glass substrates" (482630) - Sampling, mass production next year another glass substrate name " $NVDA may seek to secure high-end substrate capacity in advance through long-term agreements, prepayments, or strategic partnerships, aiming to avoid a repeat of the supply constraints previously seen in CoWoS and HBM." This is in relation to $TSM COUPE on Substrate. "As Commercial Times highlights, demand from AI GPUs, ASICs, and CPO could trigger another supply shortage of high-end ABF substrates by 2027." So more substrate bottleneck stuff. Then there's: "China's agreement to address US concerns over rare earth and critical mineral shortages specifically yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium" So good to look into yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium supply chains if you want long ideas. Everything is kinda correcting right now, but just something to keep a lookout for if ur interested in more random ideas.
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长文批评IREN无限ATM和营销式融资，认为NBIS才是更好Neocloud。
$IREN 从70美元跌回46美元，跌幅34%。 我想知道 X 上最蠢的社区之一终于学会阅读了吗？ $NBIS 客观上是更好的 Neocloud，并且有真正融资。 -> Nvidia 根本没有资助 $IREN。他们得到的是免费采购协议，让 IREN 使用他们的 logo 并通过稀释来买 GPU。 $NVDA 实际上给了 $NBIS 资本。 -> $IREN 面临像 $BKKT、$ASST、$SLNH 一样无休止稀释，散户财富通过60亿美元 ATM 转移过去，而所谓“5GW 产能”护城河在缩小。 $NBIS 实际使用的是让股权增值的融资结构。 这反映在两者年初至今的差异中。 我去年也说过同样的话。一个上涨约100%。 另一个持平，甚至根据入场点可能是负收益。 IREN 到现在字面上就是一家营销公司，因为它们能说服散户把资本通过财富转移交过去。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. -> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures. And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both. I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%. The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points. IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
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预计明年会有很多关于FAU和组件瓶颈的文章，FOCI/Nextronics等会处于中心。
明年……我预计会有很多关于 FAU + 组件瓶颈的文章。 尤其是随着 $NVDA + $TSM 领导的新 CPO 架构开始放量。 然后今天我提到的 FOCI（约28亿美元市值）或 Nextronics（约2.46亿美元市值）等很多名字会处于中心。 尽管其中很多被贴上“商品”标签……（看看变压器/NAND）。 到时我会像 $AXTI 一样发一条“你听了吗，朋友”。 我们看看这是否正确。
原推 ↗英文原文
Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks. Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVDA + $TSM starts to scale. Then a lot of these names like FOCI (~$2.8B MC) or Nextronics (~$246M MC) that I’m mentioning today will be in the center of it. Despite many of these “commodity” labels… (just look at transformers/NAND) And I’ll do a “Did you listen anon post” like $AXTI. We’ll see if this is right.
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调侃特朗普大额持有Kura Sushi。
Donald Trump 显然做多寿司。 我真觉得总统持有 Kura Sushi（$KRUS，约6亿美元市值）很大比例股权这件事很好笑。 在从 $AVGO 到 $NVDA 的所有东西中。 如果 Trump 真的买了500万美元，他将持有我最喜欢的美国寿司连锁之一约0.8%。 我没有开放仓位……但我喜欢总统买下寿司餐厅这个想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
Donald Trump is apparently long Sushi. I genuinely find it hilarious the President took a large % ownership of Kura Sushi ( $KRUS, ~$600m MC). Among everything from $AVGO to $NVDA. If Trump did buy $5M worth, the president would own close to ~.8% of one of my favorite US Sushi Chains. Don't have any open positions... but I do love the idea of our President buying up Sushi restaurants.
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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质疑 POET 估值高过 FOCI 的合理性
为什么 $POET（31.4 亿美元）的估值会比 FOCI（3363，31 亿美元）还高？？？ FOCI 明明就是 CPO 量产爬坡的瓶颈，也是 $TSM 和 $NVDA 的主要供应商。 我非常看好 FOCI，等机构发现这个名字后，它会跑赢。 另外，FOCI 管理层能不能像 $HIMX 那样去做 NASDAQ ADR？谢谢。
原推 ↗英文原文
HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)??? FOCI IS LITERALLY THE BOTTLENECK FOR CPO VOLUME RAMP AND MAIN SUPPLIER FOR $TSM AND $NVDA. High conviction Foci outperforms once institutions find this name. Also, can Foci management please pursue NASDAQ ADR like $HIMX? Thank you.
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认为 FOCI 被严重低估
FOCI（3363）是现在全市场里被低估最严重的 CPO 玩家之一，市值大概只有 30 亿美元。 它的 BOM 相对市值非常大，而且预计会拿到 $NVDA / $TSM 的主导性份额。 你要到 2027 / 2028 年才会真正看到这件事兑现，虽然我们现在已经进入 2026 年下半年了（这也是我说在提前押注 CPO 超级周期）。
原推 ↗英文原文
FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B. Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM. You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're entering H2 2026 now (which is what I mean by frontrunning CPO supercycle).
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看好 FOCI 在未来两年大幅跑赢
说实话，我预计 FOCI（3363）在接下来两年会远远打爆预期。 这个价位对我来说是中期非常高置信度的持仓。 因为他们预计会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，而且经常被提到是支撑 2028 年 $91B+ CPO TAM 的关键瓶颈（GS）。 太离谱了：一个推动规模化所必需的关键 CPO 瓶颈，市值只有 30 亿美元；而 LightWave Logic 这种还在开发阶段的公司，市值也差不多有 27 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
Honestly I’m expecting FOCI (3363) to blow away projections over next two years. It’s a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level. Since they’re expected to be the leading supplier to $NVDA and $TSM and get frequently cited as a bottleneck for that $91B+ 2028 CPO TAM (GS). Insane how it’s $3B MC as a critical CPO bottleneck required for scale, while LightWave Logic literally has around the same valuation at $2.7B in development stage.
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发现 Nextronics 也是机器人供应链里被忽视的供应商
现在再想想…… Nextronics（8147）其实也是 Amazon 机器人供应链里一个很被低估的供应商。 所以 Amazon 越扩张，他们的收入也会越大（市值才约 2 亿美元，如果毛利率真能做到 38-40%，那影响应该会很明显）。 我之前只盯着 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应链，因为那是它们最大的增长向量。 但我也认为 Amazon 的机器人计划是最适合大规模生产的路线，因为每造一个内部机器人，就会降低 opex、削减 headcount、提升利润率。 而且整个生态都会受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
Now that I think about it more… Nextronics (8147) is a pretty undiscovered supplier to robotics supply chains like $AMZN too. So as Amazon scales up, so does their revenue (it’s only ~$200m mc so it should be material if they’re hitting 38-40% gross margins). I was only focusing on $NVDA CPO supply chains as their largest growth vector earlier. But I do think Amazon’s robotics program have the simplest route for mass production since each one they make internally lowers opex, cuts headcount, and improves profitability. And their whole ecosystem should benefit.
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复盘 TSEM 业绩后自己持仓继续 ATH
又正好过了 2 个月。 $TSEM 在财报后已经涨到 250 美元以上。 我大部分持仓在 thesis 继续发酵后，每天都在刷 ATH。 如果市场给更多时间让 thesis 落地，往往会这样。
原推 ↗英文原文
And exactly 2 months later. $TSEM is trading at $250+ post earnings. The vast majority of my picks keep making ATHs every day after there’s more time for the thesis to play out. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/rGXFKwPC51
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NBIS 财报强劲并大幅超预期
$NBIS 的财报非常亮眼，现在盘前已经交易到 200 美元以上。 他们重申 2026 年 70-90 亿美元 ARR、40% 调整后 EBITDA margin 预期，远超市场预期。 4 GW 已签约产能，$NVDA 通过扎实的融资结构提供了 63 亿美元资本支持。 很高兴我高置信度的 Neocloud 持仓表现这么好，也很高兴管理层执行得这么出色。 用 Jensen 的话说：“Nebius 会照顾好你们的。”
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well. In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”
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用 napkin math 算 Nextronics 的 CPO 价值
所以这是我在做多 Nextronics（8147）时做的便签纸计算。 他们是 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，供应 CPO connectors 和 cage thermal modules。 我按 2028 年的前瞻市盈率大概算了 2 倍，这也是我认为它有望在 2028 年重估到约 20 亿美元以上市值、具有很强风险回报的原因。 只看它的 CPO 暴露： -> CPO connector 大概 15 到 25 美元 -> ELS thermal cages 估计约 50 美元 每个 switch 18 个单元：18x50 = 900 美元 CPO Connectors：每个 switch 72 个 optical engines，72 x 15 = 1080 美元 （如果 $NVDA 扩到 Spectrum-X switch，这个数会到 1920 美元） Total Nextronics Content：大约 1980 美元（保守算成 2000 美元） 这意味着 BOM 只占 rack 的 0.08%，大概只占 switch 的 1.5%。 机构眼里这太小了，所以大概率被忽略。 但对 Nextronics 这家约 2 亿美元的公司来说，这很重要吗？ 当然，绝对很重要。 我算的时候把 Nextronics 在 Nvidia connector/cage 市场的份额打了 50% 折扣，因为存在多供应商。 并且我用的是 GS 的预测，再假设 $AVGO、$MRVL、ASIC CPO 生态的规模只有 $NVDA 的 30%。 净利润率：22.4%（GM 38% 时）到 24.0%（GM 40% 时）。 但如果按其他预测，只看 rack shipment： 2026：CPO revenue 约 1010 万，净利润（22.4%）约 226 万 + 基础业务 1250 万 = 1470 万（540k 单元是 connectors，40k 单元是 cage，且已除以 50%） 2027：CPO revenue 约 1.72 亿，净利润（22.4%）约 3853 万 = 5103 万（约 800 万单元 connectors，103 万单元 cage） 2028 scale up 扩张：CPO revenue 约 4.5 亿，净利润约 1.0093 亿，基础业务约 1130 万（约 4000 万单元 connectors，298 万单元 cages，例如 Nvidia ELS 量是 1990 万） 所以前瞻市盈率大概是 2026 年 15.4 倍，2027 年 4.45 倍，2028 年 2 倍。 当然，放量后综合毛利可能会下降，也可能会有别的玩家把份额稀释到 25% 左右，预测也可能比 GS 更高或更低。 但不管怎样，哪怕我偏差 50%，这仍然极具不对称性。 2028 年通常是 CPO 玩家大重估的一年，2026 年其实还很早。 希望我算得对，但 20x 的前瞻市盈率会对应 22.6 亿美元市值。 即便我们把： -> 市占率降到 15%。 -> 净利润率压到 14%。 -> connector ASP 降到 10 美元。 按 20x 倍数，股价仍然能有大约 4.5 倍回报，市值超过 10 亿美元。 我们走着看吧。（NFA，只是投机性财务建模）
原推 ↗英文原文
So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long. They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules. And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028. Just for their CPO exposure: -> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25 -> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est. 18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900 CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080 (If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors). Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case. Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch. This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored. Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company? Yes, absolute massive. For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source. And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA. Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM). But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments: 2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%) ~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%) 2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage) 2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M) So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028. Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS. But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%. 2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early. Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC. Even if we drop: -> market share to just 15%. -> compress their net income margin down to 14%. -> connector ASP to $10. At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap. We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)
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说明 FOCI 在 CPO 暴露里非常有吸引力
FOCI（3363）在现在这个位置上，作为 CPO 敞口看起来极具吸引力，市值大概只有 33.5 亿美元。 1. $TSM COUPE 先进封装负责人暗示，FOCI 提供的 FAU 供给会是量产中的大瓶颈。 2. Morgan Stanley note 预计他们会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，市占率最高可到 50%。 3. $HIMX 释放了创纪录需求的信号，而且表示 Foci 应该扩产，这意味着中期需求可见度很高。 4. 根据 Goldman Sachs 的研究，FAU 和光学组件占 CPO 相关 BOM 的很大比例。 5. 总体 CPO TAM 按 GS 的说法，未来两年会从接近 0 增长到 910 亿美元。 方向上我对这个主题非常有信心（NFA），尽管短期市场波动很大。 风险在于后续 generation 被设计替代。 但在未来 1-2 年里，我认为它有很高的重估潜力，相比其他名字也许需要持续跟踪。 只是顺手分享一下我持有的更纯 CPO 敞口思路。
原推 ↗英文原文
FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure. 1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production. 2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note. 3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility) 4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note. 5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note. I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility. Risks include getting designed out for later generations. But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored. Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.
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看好 Shunsin 的放量和 Foxconn 绑定
今天对 Shunsin（6451）的影响非常看多。 它就是 Foxconn 的 SiPH 和 CPO 封装 / 测试业务。 -> UDN 报道上调了放量预期，且 Foxconn 已经开始向 $NVDA 出货 CPO switch racks -> CPO 产品正在 Foxconn 越南工厂生产…… 猜猜看哪家公司过去几年一直在积极扩建 Bac Giang 越南工厂来做 CPO？ 正如我之前说的，Shunsin 本质上就是被 Foxconn 直接带飞的免费硬核 carry。 我当时只是太早了，但现在看起来正是巨大增长曲线的开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
Highly bullish implications today for Shunsin (6451). Which is Foxconn’s SiPH and CPO packaging/test arm. -> UDN reported upward revision in volume and Foxconn began shipping cpo switch racks to $NVDA -> CPO products are being produced in Foxconn's Vietnam plant… Guess which company has been aggressively expanding its Bac Giang, Vietnam facility for CPO for the past few years? As I said before Shunsin is basically a free hard-carry by Foxconn. Was just very early but this looks to be the start of a massive growth curve.
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继续看空 IREN，认为它更像融资机器
正如我之前说的，$IREN 跟 $NBIS 比起来基本就是垃圾。 $NVDA 还没给 $IREN 融资。 所以 IREN 只能想办法通过 60 亿美元 ATM 和其他方式买足 GPU，把 5GW 产能变现。 这本质上就是一台无限稀释机，只是因为它拿到了电力。 我叫 $IREN 持有人 0 IQ，是因为他们只是为了拿到稀释而买入，却不理解融资结构的细节。 Nvidia 确实给了 $NBIS 资金。 而 IREN 只是拿到了一个允许它用 logo 的无风险采购协议。 $IREN 现在基本就是一家营销公司，而其他 Neocloud 才是真正让股权升值的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power. I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing. Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds. While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo. $IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.
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依旧看空 IREN，认为融资结构更差
@LMutaaya 大家当时在我 71 美元看空 $IREN 时都说“你在开玩笑吧”。 $NVDA 没有给他们融资，所以他们需要通过别的方式去借钱买 GPU，支撑 5GW 产能。 可转换债其实比 ATM 好得多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LMutaaya People were saying "WERE YOU KIDDING" when I posted I was bearish on $IREN at $71. $NVDA isn't giving them any funding, so they need to raise elsewhere to buy GPUs for their 5 GW capacity. Convertible notes is actually a lot better way to go than ATMs though.
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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介绍 Nextronics 及其在 Nvidia CPO 供应链里的位置
我只是把 Goldman Sachs 的 $NVDA 供应商报告放出来。 有一家很有意思、约 2.1 亿美元市值的公司 Nextronics（8147），我跟着 GS 之后也建了仓。 它向 Nvidia 的 CPO 供应链提供 CPO connectors 和 Cage Thermal Modules。 它们也在 $AMZN 的供应链和 humanoids 里，顺带还做按摩椅。 我只是想分享一个有意思的想法（NFA / DYOR），我之后会做 BOM 分析，但在 Nvidia CPO 项目放量时，这相对市值看起来很有意义。 当然也有多供应商 / 被设计出局的风险，但 GS 多次把这家微型供应商列在 40 亿到 100 亿美元以上公司名单里，可能是有原因的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just putting it out there with the Goldman Sachs $NVDA supplier note. There’s a very interesting ~$210m MC company Nextronics (8147) that I ended up taking positions on following GS. That supplies CPO connectors and Cage Thermal Modules to Nvidia CPO supply chains. They’re also in $AMZN supply chains and Humanoids. And massage chairs too. Just thought I’d share an interesting idea (NFA/DYOR), I’ll do a BOM analysis later, but it looks very material relative to MC as Nvidia’s CPO program scales up. Of course risks are multi-sourcing/getting designed out, but there’s probably a reason why GS flagged this micro supplier multiple times among $4-10B+ companies.
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发现一个做按摩椅和人形机器人副业的 Nvidia CPO 供应商
今天才知道，居然有一家 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，副业还做按摩椅和美国人形机器人。 Toto 马桶和 HBM 的梗到处都在冒出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Today I learned there’s a $NVDA CPO supplier that builds massage chairs and US Humanoids on the side. The Toto toilet HBM meme keeps showing up everywhere.
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再排查 NVDA 架构变化下的台湾标的
@Leo66Gao 对，TWSE: 3324、TWSE: 3017、TWSE: 8996、TWSE: 2308、$VRT 这些都是我标出来的。 但我今天还想多做些尽调，以防 $NVDA 的架构变化会把其中一两个名字设计出去。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Leo66Gao Yeah TWSE: 3324, TWSE: 3017, TWSE: 8996, TWSE: 2308, $VRT, and others were the ones I flagged. But I wanted to do more DD today, just in case the $NVDA architecture changes might have designed or two out.
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总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化
这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR： 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产，这是个重大变化，因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞，Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态，也许该开始研究一下？ 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞，这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱，那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元，收入同比增长 30%，半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强，对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是，他们绕开了 Neoclouds，选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划，已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家，以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了，真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧，电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了？ 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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解释 IREN 拿到的是无风险品牌授权，不是真投资
@bennybigbull 他们拿到的是**购买 3000 万股的权利**。 $NVDA 根本没有投钱。 他们只是因为允许 IREN 使用他们的品牌、并进一步稀释自己去买 Nvidia GPU，才拿到一个无风险的期权式认购协议。
原推 ↗英文原文
@bennybigbull They have the **right to** buy 30m shares. $NVDA hasn't invested anything. They just got a risk-free option purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their branding and dilute more to buy Nvidia GPUs.
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解释 NVDA 对 IREN 的支持并不等于真正投资
$NVDA 什么都没投。他们拿到的是一个完全无风险的购买协议，自己没有承担任何投入。 这和可转债不同；可转债是他们借钱给 $IREN，然后按 70 美元转换。 很多人把融资结构的细节混为一谈，但如果他们真给 $NBIS 投了 20 亿美元，那就完全是另一回事。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA hasn't invested anything. They got a completely risk-free purchase agreement without committing anything. This is different than a convertible note where they would loan $IREN money and to convert it at $70. People conflate all the nuances of financing structures, it's actually material if they put $2B into a company like $NBIS.
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强调 NVDA 只是给了无风险认购文件
@OrkunEC Nvidia 基本上只是给了 $IREN 一个完全无风险的股份购买票据，自己根本没投钱。 这甚至都不是可转债，因为他们没有给 $IREN 任何现金。 他们让 $IREN 用自己的品牌去继续稀释并买 Nvidia GPU，自己却不会承担损失。
原推 ↗英文原文
@OrkunEC Nvidia basically got a completely risk-free share purchase note for $IREN and hasn't invested at all. This wasn't even a convertible note, where they gave $IREN any money. They're not losing anything for letting $IREN use their brand to dilute more and buy Nvidia GPUs.
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继续看空 IREN，认为它只是品牌协议和稀释机器
我现在还是看空 $IREN。 算法 / 散户大概是看见 $NVDA 和 $IREN 合作就冲了进去。 但如果看现实情况，那更像是一个品牌协议，给了 $NVDA 无风险的可转票据。 所以 $IREN 还能继续把 60 亿美元 ATM 卖给散户。 这就像一家创业公司用了 AWS，就说自己和 Amazon 合作，然后让别人给它 60 亿美元。 这根本不是 Nvidia 直接给 IREN 融资，只是给了它一个无风险选择权。 有个“5GW 部署”故事，但我不想成为那个替它接稀释的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
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认为 LITE 外购 CW lasers 让 AAOI 和 SIVE 受益
是的，$LITE 承认自己被迫从竞争对手那里购买 CW lasers，这对 $AAOI 来说是巨大利好。 因为他们自己就有 CW laser fab，而且目标是在 2027 年把产能提升 350%。 $LITE 财报电话会最重要的 nuance 是：$NVDA 已经在上游给 CW lasers 造成了巨大瓶颈。 很可能 $COHR 和 $LITE 都签了多年的 EML 协议，所以它们被锁死了，没法生产足够的 CW lasers。 我持有的一些原来被认为是“Tier 2”的名字，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，现在很可能因为没有被 Nvidia 完全分配产能而地位上升。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes, $LITE admitting they're forced to buy CW lasers from their competitors is a massive win for $AAOI. Since they have their own CW Laser fab (and target 350% increase in capacity by 2027). The massive nuanced takeaway from $LITE earnings call: $NVDA caused a massive upstream bottleneck for CW lasers. It's likely $COHR and $LITE have multi-year EML agreements, so they're locked up and can't produce enough CW lasers. A lot of the former "Tier 2" players I own like $AAOI and $SIVE, are likely elevated in status now given they're not fully allocated to Nvidia.
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CPO面临全行业供需失衡，多处产能瓶颈将显现。
$LITE CEO在财报电话会中措辞是"CPO存在巨大的供需失衡"。 我认为即便是$SIVE、$GFS、Win、Shunsin，以及所有CPO相关公司，都会面临需求过剩的局面……从而在多个环节引发全行业瓶颈。 但话说回来，$AMD的CPO项目可能不得不选择其他激光供应商，比如$SIVE，因为$NVDA锁定了产能。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE CEO on their transcript worded it as "massive supply demand imbalance on CPO" I think even $SIVE, $GFS, Win, Shunsin, and everyone CPO related will have too much demand... leading to an industry wide bottleneck on multiple chokepoints But yes, $AMD CPO program likely had to go with other laser suppliers like $SIVE as a result of $NVDA securing capacity.
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利盟特姆业务广泛，2028年前满负荷订单，长期看好但短期不确定。
$LITE（利盟特姆）基本上什么都做，CW/EML激光器、光学引擎等。我主要用CPO增长曲线来分析像$SIVE或MSSCorps这种没有前期业务基础的纯概念公司。对于利盟特姆，你需要看整体TAM（总可寻址市场），从150亿增长到1540亿美元，因为他们的目标市场很广泛，包括CPO。他们在2028年前基本上是满负荷订单状态，尤其是与$NVDA的合作，这是最大的指标。我不认为他们会达不到盈利预期。但“达标”基本上是预期内的，所以不知道短期会怎么走，很多取决于期权流向，基本是抛硬币。长期方向上，我认为仍然值得持有，短期怎么走就见仁见智了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE basically does everything, CW/EML lasers, optical engines, etc. I used CPO growth curves mainly for pure play names like $SIVE or MSSCorps that didn't have previous exposure. For Lumentum you want to look at overall TAM which was $15B -> $154B since they're kinda targeting most things, including CPO. They're basically fully booked through 2028, especially with $NVDA that's the biggest indicator. I don't see how they don't beat earning projections. But the "beat" is pretty much expected, so dunno which way it goes short term and a lot of it is option flow/coin flip. Directionally long term it's still a hold in my view, anyone's guess what happens short term.
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欣讯通过鸿海垂直整合间接成为英伟达CPO供应链受益者，被市场忽视且估值偏低。
我很确定像高盛这样的机构在$15亿估值时错过了欣讯(6451)的CPO封装/测试/组装业务。这就是为什么我非常看好它，认为它是一个完全走后门的、隐藏的英伟达CPO产能提升的主要受益者。鸿海是其供应链中的主要合作伙伴，包括$TSM和$ASX。但是……欣讯是鸿海的光学部门，并承接其内部的全部光学和先进封装业务。所以它们没有在任何地方被明确列出，也没有与英伟达的直接合同（但鸿海有）。但很可能通过鸿海垂直整合吸收了英伟达的CPO和其他产能。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pretty sure institutions like GS missed Shunsin (6451) at $1.65B for CPO packaging/test/assembly. Which is why I'm very bullish on it as a completely backdoored, hidden + major beneficiary of $NVDA CPO ramp. Foxconn is a major supply chain partner among $TSM and $ASX. But… Shunsin is Foxconn's optical arm, and captures their captive optical and advanced packaging volume. So they're not explicitly listed anywhere or have direct contracts with Nvidia (but Foxconn does) But likely soaks up Nvidia CPO + other volumes through Foxconn vertical integration.
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解释 MSSCorp 的功能性垄断地位
我确实说过，MSSCORP 很可能在 CPO 检测上有功能性垄断。 这几乎没有绕开的办法，而且对 $NVDA / $TSM 的良率来说都很关键。 他们自己也说过“the c...”
原推 ↗英文原文
I did say MSSCORP likely has a functional monopoly for CPO over inspection. Not really a way around it and it's critical for $NVDA / $TSM yields as CPO ramps. They did say "the company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" Should have been the biggest indicator.
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看好SIVE和GFS，因其无晶圆厂模式易扩张，类似NVDA+TSM的成功路径
@Leon8995385220 $SIVE 可能已与 Win Semi（稳懋半导体）锁定产能分配协议以实现规模扩张，并与 $GFS（GlobalFoundries）合作。这就是为什么我对这两只股票都做多，作为无晶圆厂(fabless)模式容易扩张，有点像 $NVDA + $TSM。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Leon8995385220 $SIVE likely locked up allocation agreements with Win Semi to scale. And works with $GFS. Which is why I'm long on them both, easy to scale as fabless, kinda like $NVDA + $TSM.
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Sivers成为CPO关键激光供应商，NVDA引发的产能瓶颈正驱动AMD等厂商争抢上游资源。
看到$SIVE成为CPO(共封装光学)的Tier 1激光供应商，这真的很疯狂。 这是我的预测/猜测与大致映射： $NVDA用$COHR、$LITE的产能（在他们新的20亿美元以上支出计划之后）。 早期2025年EML用了同样的手法，导致了今天的瓶颈。 现在，$AMD/超大规模云商正在争抢上游激光供应商。 因此，$SIVE + Win / $GFS成为可能的主要途径。 你可以从以下看出： -> $MVL CPO通过Celestial（Nvidia签了协议，但他们没有激光器） -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> 其他项目（如Jabil 1.6T） 因此，Sivers/Win成为Tier 1尖端关键独立激光供应商。 这一点的一些暗示： 1. $GFS在其生态系统中将$SIVE / $LITE列为仅有的两家公开激光供应商。 2. Ayar将$LITE / $MTSI从其网站上移除，并将$SIVE提升为主要激光供应商。 所以其他所有人最终都选择了Sivers，因为$COHR / $LITE已经完全分配。 我的猜测是，随着架构标准化，许多二级供应商也会抢占溢出市场份额。 明年年初，考虑到$NVDA的瓶颈，这场争夺关键环节的竞争将异常激烈。 而这家瑞典小型公司$1.2B规模的$SIVE将处于这场竞争的中心。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's pretty insane to see $SIVE become a Tier 1 laser supplier for CPO. This is my prediction/guess with est. mapping: $NVDA ate up all the capacity with $COHR, $LITE after their new $2B+ spending spree. Same playbook with EML early 2025, causing the bottleneck seen today. Now, $AMD / hyperscalers are scambling for upstream laser suppliers. Hence why $SIVE + Win / $GFS became likely primary route to go down. You can see this with: -> $MVL CPO through Celestial (Nvidia signed a deal, but they don't have lasers) -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> and other programs (eg. Jabil 1.6T) As a result, Sivers/Win emerged as the Tier 1 bleeding edge + critical independent laser supplier. And there's hints for this when: 1. $GFS listed $SIVE / $LITE as the two only public laser suppliers in their ecosystem. 2. Ayar removed $LITE / $MTSI off their website and elevated $SIVE to their primary laser supplier. So everyone else ended up going with Sivers since $COHR / $LITE are fully allocated. My guess is that a lot of the secondary suppliers also capture overflow as architectures standardize. But scramble for this chokepoint will be insane early next year given $NVDA bottleneck. And a small $1.2B Swedish company in $SIVE will be in the center of it.
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CPO市场将迎抛物线式增长，是最佳早期布局机遇
以防你们想知道我为什么对CPO（共封装光学）如此看好。比如$SIVE（激光器）、Shunsin（封装）、MSSCorps（良率）、Win Semi/$TSEM（晶圆代工）。\n\n"CPO市场预计从2026年到2030年将以142%的复合年增长率强劲增长（不含ELS）"\n\n"规模扩展CPO细分市场预计将在2030年前超过规模扩展应用，成为主导市场。\n\n未来几年将呈现近乎抛物线式的增长。\n\n许多像Sivers这样的厂商之前对800G可插拔光模块几乎没有实质性敞口，但却是CPO领域最前沿的激光器供应商领导者。\n\n这是由$NVDA和$AVGO驱动的下一代光学超级周期中最好且最早的机遇之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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对 Spirit Airlines 退市感到可惜并顺带谈监管
我还是不敢相信 Spirit Airlines 要倒了。 这很糟，因为现在更少人有动力去压成本了。 封锁 $ARM 和 $NVDA 收购案和真的去保护竞争，是两回事。
原推 ↗英文原文
Still can’t believe Spirit Airlines is shutting down. Very harmful, now there’s less incentives to cut costs. There’s a difference between blocking $ARM and $NVDA acquisition (actual antitrust). And an Airline rescuing Spirit from bankruptcy. Thanks Senator Warren. https://t.co/BTn9D61eek
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嘲讽Bernstein的$35目标价错误，机构唱空却在暗中做多，散户不应盲从机构预测。
我在1月份就说过Bernstein给$INTC定$35目标价简直是个小丑。他们只会乱给目标价。散户恐慌抛售正是他们的有意目的。而其他机构却在悄悄做多（从$SOI就能看出）。现在你读这些报告唯一的原因，就是从中寻找之前没有公开过的细微信息。然后自己推导市值预期。英特尔现在$100，在他们给$35目标价之后。机构不是你的朋友。
原推 ↗英文原文
I called out Bernstein for being a clown when they gave $INTC a $35 price target in Jan. They just slap dumb PTs. Retail panic sells as an intended consequence. While the other institutions silently go long (as seen with $SOI). Only reason you should read these anymore is for any nuances they drop that wasn’t public before. Then derive your own MC projection. Intel is now $100 after their $35 PT. Institutions are not your friends.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
原推 ↗英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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NVDA/TSM 生态还有上行
@latent_value7 嗯……$NVDA / $TSM 之类现在都在用 MSSCorps，我觉得这还有很大上行空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
@latent_value7 Yeah... $NVDA / $TSM and others all using MSSCorps has pretty big upside imo.
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MSSCorps 在 CPO 检测上像垄断
我现在做多 MSSCorps（6830），市值大约 14 亿美元。 这看起来像是 CPO 检测环节的功能性垄断。 但市场可能把它和材料/失效分析混淆了，后者更像 MA-tek 和 iST 那样的寡头格局。 按客户映射来看： 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC 还有很大概率包括 $AVGO、联发科、三星、$MRVL 等等（他们也提到了欧盟）。 如果你感兴趣： - 台北时报把 TSM 说成是客户，Msscorps 为其提供先进材料和失效分析，还点名了苹果、英伟达、Lam、AMAT（也感谢 Latent 和我一起做尽调。英伟达那边还有通过 LinkedIn 之类看到的其他供应链关系） - 对 $AMSL 而言，《台北时报》在 2024 年 9 月 10 日写到：“ASML 采用了 Msscorps 超高灵敏度的光刻胶材料分析” - 对英特尔来说，材料分析实验室 MSSCORPS 已经拿下了英伟达和英特尔等大厂的订单（工业技术研究院） 至于检测（非破坏性红外漏检），他们几乎是垄断。 而且他们还积极使用诉讼（比如 Enli Tech 诉讼）来挡住竞争对手，我把这看成正面因素。 这带来了巨大的定价权和收益率，而且每个主要玩家都要经过他们。 CPO 检测市场也极其关键，和 $AXTI 在 InP 基板环节一样，这种巨大卡点具有纯粹的定价权和提价能力。 风险在于专利诉讼不一定按计划推进，但英伟达和其他超大规模云厂商大概率不会在 MSSCorps 赢了之后去找别家，因为他们不想承担风险。 所以这本身就构成了一个多年期的巨大优势。 超大规模云厂商不会等一个新兴竞争对手证明自己能赢再行动，也不会愿意承担这个风险。 我确实看到了 MSSCorps 因为在 CPO 的关键良率卡点上有机会重估，所以我选择做多（非投资建议，自己做功课），这就是我的思路。
原推 ↗英文原文
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research). For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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Foxconn 让 Shunsin 进入 Nvidia 供应链
只是提醒一下：我不需要每天都发一条关于我持有标的的帖子。 不过，关于 Shunsin（6451）这件事我确实漏掉了： $NVDA 选择了富士康作为 Groq 加速器的独家机架级供应商。 这对 Shunsin（富士康的光学封装业务）非常正面。 所以 ShunSin 的 CPO 和光学封装，基本上借着这条新闻，间接搭上了 Nvidia 的下一代供应链。 市场还没有意识到这层关系（而且它在流通盘分布里，对大多数人来说是被冻结的）。 文章里明确写到，富士康正在整合这些系统，包括“……网络”。 既然富士康是独家组装商，它就会垂直整合，并很可能把 ShunSin 的光学封装方案纳入设计里，而不需要 ShunSin 直接从 Nvidia 那里拿到网络合同。 这就是我说 Shunsin 本质上是在白嫖 $NVDA CPO 生态的意思。富士康体量太大了。 而且你得到的是 Nvidia 光学供应链里的头部玩家，估值却比 $LWLG 还低，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just an FYI: I don't need to post something every day about the names I own. However, I did miss this with Shunsin (6451): Foxconn picked by $NVDA as exclusive rack-scale supplier for Groq accelerator. This is highly positive for Shunsin (Foxconn's optical packing arm). So ShunSin's CPO and optical packaging basically backdoored Nvidia's next-gen supply chain with this news. Markets just haven't realized this connection yet (and it's on disposition, so frozen for most). The article explicitly notes that Foxconn is integrating these systems "including ... networking." Bc Foxconn is the exclusive assembler, they'll vertically integrate and likely use ShunSin's optical packaging solutions into the design, bypassing ShunSin's need for networking contract directly from Nvidia. This is what I meant by Shunsin is literally a free piggy back ride to $NVDA CPO ecosystem. Foxconn is massive. And you're getting the leading player in Nvidia's optical supply chain for a lower valuation than $LWLG lol.
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NVIDIA 十年前的招募往事
没错，他们当时确实很幸运。$NVDA 在 2018 年还想招我去带一个 AI 团队……那会儿股价大概才 6 美元左右。 当时我没太当回事，因为除了研究以外，商业化 AI 应用还不多。Jensen 还主要在讲游戏和比特币挖矿。 如果按时间推算，可能会有 1 亿美元以上的薪酬，但我还是不觉得当时有人真的预料到 AI 会涨得这么猛。 那些买游戏显卡的人最后赚到改变人生的回报，确实挺厉害的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah they got super lucky. $NVDA tried recruiting me to lead one of their AI teams in 2018... back at $6 or something. Didn't think too much of it since there wasn't many commercial AI applications aside from research. Jensen was still talking about gaming and Bitcoin mining. Might have been $100m+ comp over time though, still don't think anyone really expected AI to take off this much. Pretty impressive a lot of the gamer GPU investors made life changing returns
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从小钱滚成巨额回报
哇……有人拿 $835 的 $NVDA 股票，最后变成了 83.8 万美元。 这条是在 $RDDT 上看到的。未实现收益是 +100,264.07%。 时间跨度从 2008 年 10 月到 2026 年 4 月。 说明只要起步不多，也确实有可能滚出世代财富。 只要找到下一个 Nvidia……很简单，对吧，各位？https://t.co/6KBjxNBMdD
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow... Someone turned $835 -> $838,000 from $NVDA shares. This was shared on $RDDT. Unrealized gain was +100,264.07%. From Oct 2008 -> April 2026. See, it is possible to make generational wealth without too much to start. Just gotta find the next Nvidia… easy, right chat? https://t.co/6KBjxNBMdD
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POET 被替代意味着 Marvell 直连 SIVE
所以 $POET 做的是封装那一层的事情。 如果 $MRVL 放弃了 Poet，意思就是 Marvell 认为自己可以把那一层垂直整合进 Celestial，并且直接自己买激光器（不只是 nda 纠纷那么简单）。 Marvell 还是得买激光器。我相信他们会准备多来源合同，但我不认为 $NVDA 会把分配额度分给 $MRVL。 这也是为什么 $SIVE 很可能仍然是直接供货给 Marvell 的激光供应商，因为它们已经符合 Celestial 的规格，这样就能直接去掉一个中间层玩家。
原推 ↗英文原文
So $POET does the packaging side of things. If $MRVL dropped Poet, it means Marvell felt they could vertically integrate that layer into Celestial and just buy lasers directly themselves (not just the nda dispute). Marvell would still need to buy lasers. I'm sure they're planning multi-source contracts but I don't think $NVDA would share allocation to $MRVL. Which is why $SIVE is likely still the laser supplier direct to Marvell since they fit celestial specs already, and that just cuts out a middleware player.
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日本散户持仓是好信号
我很高兴日本社区在研究之后开始建 $SIVE 仓位！ 更强的国际股东基础总是正面的。 至于我的一些看法，市场现在看起来像这样： 1. $NVDA 把 $LITE / $COHR 的分配额度买走了 2. $AMD 的 CPO 走的是 $GFS + $SIVE / Win，剩下的激光供应可能会给 $LITE，如果还有分配的话。 3. 还有……$MRVL 的 CPO 不管怎样都需要激光器。 $SIVE 看起来是最后几家纯 merchant laser 供应商之一。 所以 Marvell 大概率会直接用 $SIVE（本来就符合 Celestial 规格），后面再多来源（也许是 $MTSI）。之后他们再把进入 Celestial 的中介封装 IP 垂直整合掉。 支持这个判断的有一些有意思的点： -> Ayar 把 $MTSI 和 $LITE 从官网上删掉了，改用了 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。Ayar 和 AlChip/GUC 等都有连接。 -> 如果看 $GFS 的幻灯片，在 $AMD 把 CPO 项目交给 GlobalFoundries 之后，只剩下 $SIVE 和 $LITE 两家公众公司。 -> $SIVE 很可能从去年开始就和 Win 有激光产能爬坡协议。 $NVDA 很可能还没把这些激光产能完全分配完，所以像 $JBL、$AMD 以及其他公司会把溢出订单给 Sivers。 因为 $LITE 已经暗示 2028 年的产能基本满了。 我可能也有错，但基于公开信息来看，情况就是这样。 至于为什么我认为它是个好长线： -> Sivers 基本上过去没怎么暴露在 800G 或更早的代际里。 -> 欧洲市场按过去 12 个月营收定价……所以之前估值一直被压得很低。 -> 它们拿到了 $NVDA 造成的超额需求。 但它们也正好站在 CPO 和甚至下一代 1.6T（$JBL LRO）扩产的最前沿，明年就会开始。 然后到 2027 年下半年或 2028 年，还能扩到硅光等相邻领域，比如可能的 $AAPL 消费设备。 或者 FMCW 4D AI 公司，比如 $AEVA。 这么多年开发，终于在明年要开花结果了。 我个人觉得市场漏掉了一个大东西，公开信息会随着时间推移慢慢被大家通过供应链关系、网站挖掘或者演示材料发现。 超大规模云厂商供应商不会无缘无故选一家 10 亿美元市值的瑞典激光公司。 和 $JBL 的直接合同就是最大的信号。 这也是我为什么高 conviction 做多。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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供应链不同层级不能混为一谈
@soscoder 它们处在供应链的不同环节。就像问 $CMG 的墨西哥卷饼能不能当成 AI 领域的 $NVDA GPU 替代品一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soscoder They're different parts of the supply chain. It's like asking if $CMG burritos be an $NVDA GPU alternative to AI.
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LITE/COHR 产能大概率已给 NVDA
$LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经把大部分甚至全部产能分配给了 $NVDA，正如 Nvidia 去年对 EML 做的那样。 由于 Win 是 merchant foundry，想对它这么做更难，所以 $MRVL 大概率会直接去找 $SIVE，因为他们本来就符合 Celestial 的规格。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE and $COHR are probably majority/fully allocated to $NVDA after their deals. Since Nvidia did the same thing with EML last year. It's harder to do that with Win since they're a merchant foundry, so it's likely $MRVL just goes directly to $SIVE since they already fit Celestial specifications.
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LITE 更可能供给 NVDA
@adrian_jega $LITE 的大部分产能大概率是分给了 $NVDA，而不是 $MRVL。 Ayar 把 $LITE 从官网上移除了，而且在这之前他们主要是在 $SIVE、$MTSI 和 $LITE 之间多来源采购，这其实就是一个提示。 所以他们会需要别的激光合作伙伴。
原推 ↗英文原文
@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.
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LITE 的产能分配影响 AM D/MRVL
这不算好消息，但也没那么糟。 $LITE 的产能大概率已经分给了 $NVDA，这也是为什么 $AMD 的 CPO（大概率）会去用 $SIVE + $GFS，我是这么猜的。 $MRVL 大概会直接从 $SIVE 买货，然后多来源，可能再加上 $MTSI，并把封装层在内部设计掉。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
原推 ↗英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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择时其实是有重复模式的
兄弟们……我的时点是不是离谱得过头了？ 像 $TSEM 这种名字全年几乎都没涨，我一做多它就翻倍。等我一买 $AEHR，它差点直接涨了三倍。 大家现在都开始觉得我是催化剂了，因为这种事一遍又一遍地发生……哈哈，这可是家 220 亿美元以上的公司。 我能把这些做对的一个有趣方法是： -> 找出那些关键但还没被注意到的公司 -> 把做多时点卡在像 $NVDA GTC 或 OFC 这样的催化剂前后 -> 再结合材料变化消息出现的时点 -> 然后找回调中的好入场点（这里就轮到你的占星派 TA 上场了） 做多不是随便挑个时间点就行！ 在别的名字上，比如 $ALRIB，则是新信息发现（比如 Microsoft Quantum），所以是两类不同的东西。 其实这里面是有重复出现的策略的……就像我之前那些 16 只三位数回报的股票一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Uh chat... is my timing insane or what? Names like $TSEM are flat all year, I go long, then it doubles. The moment I go long on $AEHR, it almost triples. People are starting to think I'm the catalyst because this keeps happening over and over... lol this is a $22B+ company. Fun fact on how I get these right : -> Identify critical companies not really noticed -> I time my longs around catalysts like $NVDA GTC or OFC. -> And around when news about material changes comes about. -> Then look at good entry points on drops (this is where your astrology TA's get used). Going long isn't just picking a random point in time! On other names, like $ALRIB it's new information discovery (eg. Microsoft Quantum), so two different types. There's actually a strategy here that repeats... (as seen with the other 16 triple digit return stocks).
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被市场看空反而是机会
你会看到媒体、银行、分析师去做空 $RKLB，因为大家都觉得他们不可能和 SpaceX 竞争。 后来媒体又去做空 $AMD，因为大家觉得他们不可能和 $INTC（现在是 $NVDA）竞争。 但他们当时确实就是那个领域里的领导者，Rocket Lab 小型可重复使用火箭的成功就是证明。 只是很难一开始看出来，因为情绪总是先站在这些小公司对面，直到它们被“验证”之后才转向。 等它们被验证的时候，你已经错过全部上行了。
原推 ↗英文原文
You had the media/banks/analysts going after $RKLB because everyone thought they couldn't compete against SpaceX. Then you have the media going against $AMD because they couldn't compete against $INTC (and now $NVDA). They were genuinely the leaders in the space, as seen with Rocketlab success with their small reusable rockets. But it's hard to find because sentiment is always going against these small players until they get "validated". By the time they do, you miss out on all the upside.
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欧洲和美国的定价方式不同
你好，感谢更有建设性的讨论。 但除了欧洲人之外，我还真没见过谁会因为 2.5%、1300 万美元的稀释，就去抱怨一家要登陆纳斯达克的公司。 在美国……我们有些随机的比特币矿工，光为了试图转型和买 GPU，就能搞出 60 亿美元以上的稀释（超过公司一半市值）。所以对超大规模云厂商供应链来说，这点稀释其实非常小。 你也应该明白，你讨论的是美国超大规模云厂商的供应商，对吧？比如 $JBL、$MRVL……最近所有 CPO 时间表都被 $NVDA 提前了。 如果有什么的话，Sivers 是我见过最被低估的光子股票之一，而且绝对还没把上行计价进去。 美国市场通常会提前 12 个月定价，但我能理解欧洲是按过去 12 个月来看的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hi, appreciate the more productive discussion. But I've never seen anyone aside from Europeans complain about 2.5% $13M dilution to get listed on NASDAQ. Over in the US... we have random Bitcoin miners with $6B+ dilution (over half the MC) just to attempt a pivot and buy GPUs. So the amount to hyperscalers supply chains is very tiny. And you do realize you're talking about US hyperscalers suppliers right? Like $JBL, $MRVL... All the CPO timelines have been accelerated by $NVDA recently. If anything Sivers is one of the most undervalued photonic stocks I've seen in the market and definitely not priced for upside yet. US markets typically price things 12 months in advance, but I understand if Europe does things previous 12 months.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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不要追逐每一轮新瓶颈
别因为每个新闻周期里出现一个新的“瓶颈”就开始 FOMO。 它现在的轮动是： $NVDA GPU -> $MU 存储 -> $IREN 电力 -> $LITE EML -> $SNDK 存储 -> GPU -> $AAOI 收发器 -> 先进封装 -> 变压器 -> $INTC CPU……等等 然后下一个就会变成 $LPK 的玻璃基板，或者日本某种别的冷门材料。 这些大多都横跨好几年。 如果 $LITE 到 2028 年都卖完了，而现在才 2026 年上半年。超大规模云厂商其实已经在把 $AAOI 能做的产能都买走了。 最好的办法可能就是对现有仓位耐心一点。 因为你追当前新闻周期，大概率只会错过某个突然拉起来的绿柱。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not the best idea to feel FOMO about the new “bottleneck” in every news cycle. It’s going from: $NVDA GPUs -> $MU Memory -> $IREN Power -> $LITE EMLs -> $SNDK Memory -> GPUs -> $AAOI transceivers -> Advanced Packaging -> Transformers -> $INTC CPUs… etc And next would be stuff like $LPK glass substrates or some random niche material from Japan. Most of these span multi-years. If $LITE is sold out into 2028 and it’s H1 2026. Hyperscalers are buying out anything $AAOI can make. It’s probably good idea to just be patient with your existing positions. Because there’s likely going to be some random green candle that you miss out on chasing the current news cycle.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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CPU 开始像存储一样短缺
CPU “严重短缺” 现在看着 CPU 一天天变得越来越像存储，挺好笑的，像 $SNDK 那样不断涨价。 “自 3 月以来，服务器 CPU 已上涨 10% 到 20%” $INTC 和 $AMD 计划在 Q3 继续涨价。 “CPU 供应很可能在 2026 和 2027 年继续紧张”，其中“Intel 的服务器 CPU 短缺可能长达 6 个月，AMD 则为 8 到 12 周”。 $TSM 也在因这波短缺而增加 capex。 “恐慌的主要原因是 CPU 和 AI ASIC 需求同时爆发；目前库存包括 Intel、AMD 主流代际 CPU，以及 $NVDA 即将推出的 Vera CPU，全部都在 3nm 工艺上。” 看起来我们又绕回来了？
原推 ↗英文原文
CPU "serious supply shortage" It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK. "Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with $INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3. "CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD" $TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage. "The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process Looks like we've come full circle?
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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投资国安供应链是正和的
只是个洗澡时想到的点……投资美国国家安全和供应链，比如 $AMSC 或 $NVTS，真的非常爱国，而且是正和的。 很长时间里，对冲基金都在做空美国本土行业，比如能源和太阳能，直到这些行业被打到破产边缘…… 他们是在和中国的国家补贴下注。 多年之后，结果就是：相比中国，我们能用于 AI 的多余能源产能很少。 通过和白宫以及 $NVDA 一起，支持美国新兴公司的供应链安全…… 股票起飞？美国公司起飞？美国起飞？ （披露：我是美国人，而且非常偏向美国）
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a shower thought... it’s extremely patriotic and positive sum to be investing in American National Security and supply chains like $AMSC or $NVTS. For the longest time hedge funds shorted domestic American sectors like energy + Solar to the point of bankruptcy... By betting with China on their state subsidies. and many years later, as a result: we have little excess energy capacity needed for AI compared to China. By investing alongside the White House and $NVDA to securing US supply chains with up and coming American companies… Stocka goes brrr? US companies go brrr? And America goes brrr? (Disclosure: I’m American, and heavily biased toward US)
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NVTS 小仓位
@daniel_koss 谢谢！不过 $NVTS 只是小仓位。我整体上还是更看好光子学这条主线。 没必要对 $NVDA 出现的每个故事都去配置。
原推 ↗英文原文
@daniel_koss thanks! small positions on $NVTS though. I find photonics theme more compelling overall. People don't need to get exposure to every story that pops up with $NVDA.
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NVDA 推进 800V
$NVDA 正在积极推进 800V，这对今天来说是一个相当大的信号。 “2026 年 4 月 22 日，NVIDIA 已经与主要韩国电力设备公司展开讨论，探索基于约 800V 直流（DC）系统设计数据中心基础设施。” 之前提到的 Nvidia 合作伙伴包括：Infineon、$TXN、$STM、$NVTS、Delta、Flex、$ETN、Schneider 和 $VRT。 早就知道他们在往这个方向推了，但……看起来现在真的是 Nvidia 在主导。 我个人对 $NVTS 的敞口很小，因为它们在 800V DC 的 SiC / GaN IC 方面暴露很高。 我知道其他人更喜欢 $VICR 作为敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA actively pushing to 800V, and today was a pretty big signal. "On April 22, 2026, NVIDIA has initiated discussions with major South Korean power equipment companies to explore designing DC infra based on an approximately 800V direct current (DC) system" Previous named Nvidia partners include: Infineon, $TXN, $STM, $NVTS, Delta, Flex, $ETN, Schneider, and $VRT. It's been known they're been pushing for this but... looks like Nvidia is really driving it. Personally very small exposure to $NVTS since they're they have a high exposure for SiC/GaN ICs for 800V DCs. I know others really liked $VICR for exposure.
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改变对Soitec的看法建仓，看好CPO赛道和NVDA催化剂，认为有3倍空间
改变了对Soitec（$SLOIF）的看法，建了一个可观的仓位，成本约43美元，布局CPO（共封装光学）。 $NVDA下周GTC大会是推动光子学和这种架构的最大催化剂。 市值约15亿欧元，以1倍账面价值和约2倍市销率交易（估值非常低迷）。 在CPO的基板方面拥有真正的垄断地位（光子学通常享有很高的估值溢价，加上垄断地位更是额外溢价）。 算法交易员和分析师可能对市场份额感到困惑，但这家公司在SOI基板上实际上是垄断地位，因为他们授权给其他厂商如信越化学是为了多元化，例如$TSM不喜欢只有一家供应商。 我不认为机构会等到明年才提前布局像Soitec这样的名字，或者$TSEM（更不用说大多数人可能还没听说过$AXTI这样的名字）。 这个时机是在买入智能手机周期低迷阶段的可能底部，同时获得CPO在2027年中后期以及下周$NVDA GTC催化剂的全部上涨空间。 我个人认为从这里能有3倍的涨幅，所以我做多了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@tnglxn4 是 https://t.co/iBUxmlcYVj
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连续催化都对 SIVE 有利
这真的是巧合，催化剂一个接一个（$JBL）之后是纳斯达克上市，然后是（$GOOGL + $MRVL），再然后是（$GFS），再然后是（$GFS + $AMD）。 再加上 $NVDA 在到处投资 CPO。 我只是 OFC 之后才做多，没想到后面会有这么多事情，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's legit coincidence that it's catalyst ( $JBL ) after catalyst (Nasdaq listing) after catalyst ( $GOOGL + $MRVL ), after catalyst ( $GFS ), after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD ). Alongside $NVDA investing into CPO everywhere. I just timed my long after OFC but did not expect all of this lol.
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媒体叙事忽略了背景
现在媒体基本就是这么运作的。 我在伯克利的时候就亲自做过 RISC-V 架构实现，而且现在还持有活跃专利。 frontier 实验室和 $NVDA 以前都找我去带一些 AI 团队。 结果“专家分析师”对我背景的唯一描述居然是“WSB meme trader”，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
That’s basically how media works nowadays. I literally pioneered RISC-V architecture implementations back when I was at Berkeley and still hold active patents. Frontier labs and $NVDA tried recruiting me to lead some AI teams. Yet the only mention of my background is “WSB meme trader” by “expert analysts” lol.
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SIVE 供应链里很多都很强
我一直在告诉大家…… $SIVE 供应链里有很多东西都很有吸引力，适合做多。 Win Semi（3105）一天涨 10%，然后涨停。 虽然它们显然是为 $AVGO 或 SpaceX 供货，但光子学爬坡是由 $NVDA 领头，随后是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT。 这会让光子学成为 Win 的一个巨大增长引擎。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm telling you all... Lot of stuff in the $SIVE supply chains make very compelling longs. Win Semi (3105) just goes up 10% a day then halts trading after hitting its max. Obviously they do things for $AVGO or SpaceX, but photonics ramp spearheaded by $NVDA and followed by $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT Would make photonics a massive growth vector for Win.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
原推 ↗英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
原推 ↗英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking
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详细拆解 Shunsin 的 Foxconn 光学封装/组装定位与利润率提升。
Shunsin（6451）。鸿海的光学封装/组装业务。 此前作为 OSAT 的毛利率只有 15-16%，但 CPO/1.6T 可能做到 30-35%，这会把整体利润率拉上去。 因为他们在 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应链里做更难的 FAU 光学对准。 和 $FN 或 $ASX 这些市值动辄几十亿美元的公司比呢？ 这家公司现在才 14 亿美元市值，我个人推演的 2028 年 forward P/E 可能会从很低的水平压缩到个位数，因为鸿海会把订单转给它。 鸿海体量巨大，而且还能帮这家公司去风险。 我对它很有信心，觉得很快就会翻倍。 只是我认为几乎没人知道这家公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
Shunsin (6451). Foxconn’s optical packaging/assembly arm. Previously 15-16% gross margins as OSAT but CPO/1.6T could be 30-35%, which brings blended up. Since they’re doing harder FAU optical alignment in $NVDA CPO supply chains. Compared to $FN or $ASX that trades in the tens of billions? This trades at… $1.4B MC with, fwd 2028 p/e likely compresses to single digits from personal projections, as Foxconn passes orders to them. Foxconn is massive. And de-risks this company. Pretty high conviction this ends up doubling soon. Just nobody knows about this company imo.
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认为富士康光学供应链比无营收试制公司更有价值。
@StrateGeee 鸿海这边是活生生的……$NVDA 的光学供应链，负责封装、测试和组装…… 居然比一个没有收入的 $LWLG 和 $TSEM 之间的开发试验还便宜。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StrateGeee Foxconn’s live.. $NVDA optical supply chain for packaging, test, and assembly.. Is valued less than a development trial between no revenue $LWLG and $TSEM
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质疑 LWLG 估值，拿 Shunsin 和 SIVEF 做对比。
抱歉，但我越来越确信 $LWLG 就是光子领域里的当前 $RGTI。 我完全不懂……他们怎么会值 18 亿美元。 鸿海的光学业务 Shunsin，给 $NVDA 做 CPO 的封装、组装和测试…… 估值反而只有 14 亿美元？ 而 $SIVEF 作为 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的激光源，前几天估值还只有它们的三分之一？ 感觉像是傻钱机构因为一份开发测试协议，买错了名字。 我没有持仓，只是觉得困惑。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sorry but I’m convinced $LWLG is the current $RGTI of photonics. I have zero clue… How they’re valued at $1.8B. Foxconn’s optical arm Shunsin, for $NVDA CPO packaging, assembly, and testing… Is valued less at $1.4B? $SIVEF, the laser source for $JBL and $MRVL was 1/3rd their valuation earlier this week? Feels like dumb money institutions went into the wrong name off a development test agreement. I have no open positions, just confused
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强调供应链映射前瞻性远胜基本面回看。
不，他们的基本面并不一样。这就是大多数散户不理解、也最让人沮丧的地方。 $SIVE 真的拿到了 $JBL 这个 hyperscaler 客户，O-Net 也在服务亚洲 hyperscaler。 然后 $MRVL 从 $NVDA 拿到了 20 亿美元，还给出了 Celestial CPO 放量的指引（这会传导到 $SIVE）。 $POET 也给了指引，并表示下半年会开始放量交付，比预期更早。 ASE 甚至直接预计 2026 年下半年 CPO 放量，远早于预期。 所以如果我们把激光环节的未来盈利增长往前映射，它应该会加速很多。 市场定价的是未来增长，不是回头看 2025 年的基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
No, they didn't have the same fundamentals. This is what majority of retail investors don't understand and it's so frustrating. $SIVE literally landed $JBL as a hyperscaler client, and O-Net which serves Asian hyperscalers. Then $MRVL ended up getting $2B from $NVDA and gave projections on their Celestial CPO ramp (which trickles down to $SIVE). $POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected. ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected. So if we map forward earnings growth from lasers, it should accelerate a lot. Markets price in future growth, not backward 2025 fundamentals.
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指出 Shunsin 就是 Nvidia CPO 供应链里的鸿海光学封装。
@KDREAM111111 你是不是傻。Shunsin 就是鸿海的光学封装业务，处在 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应链里，而且 forward P/E 很低。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KDREAM111111 Are you stupid. Shunsin is literally Foxconn's optical packaging arm with low forward P/E in $NVDA's CPO supply chains.
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认为 Enplas 的双瓶颈与客户结构很有意思。
Enplas（6961）在大约 9.85 亿美元市值时看起来挺有意思。 它们握着两个瓶颈： 1. MLA（微透镜阵列）的主导供应商。比如 SiPH switch、1.6T、3.2T 光子产品。 2. IC 测试 socket 的寡头供应商（AI 芯片测试） 手头现金大约 1.55 亿美元，没有债务。股东权益/资产比大约 89%（一般 50%+ 就算稳），所以我觉得下行风险很低。 而且它们推测的客户是： 1. 光子（MLA）：高度可能是 Innolight、Eoptolink、Furukawa、Intel（SiPh）。大概率还有 $COHR、$LITE。 2. GPU/ASIC（测试 socket）：大概率是 $TSM、ASE，以及这些类型用来测试 $NVDA GPU、$GOOGL TPU（Google Ironwood 很可能就是这个方向）。 “为主要 GPU 制造商以及 hyperscaler 的 ASIC 相关项目扩大量产订单。” 然后在 OFC： OFC： “我们将展示支持当今 AI 快速技术进步的 800Gbps 和 1.6Tbps 收发器以及 CPO（共封装光学）的新产品。” 本质上你得到的是一家同时服务一线半导体、晶圆厂和 hyperscaler 的公司，并且它能同时受益于 MLA 光子段带来的 1.6T，以及之后 OFC 产品带来的 CPO TAM 扩张。 这是我想分享的一笔持仓，因为它在不到 10 亿美元市值时就显得挺酷。
原推 ↗英文原文
Enplas (6961) at ~$985M seems kinda interesting. They hold two chokepoints: 1. Dominant supplier for MLAs (micro lens arrays). Eg. SiPH switches, 1.6T, 3.2T for photonics. 2. Oligopoly supplier for IC Test sockets (AI Chip Testing) Cash on hand: ~$155M, no debt. Equity-to-Asset Ratio: ~89% (50%+ usually is solid), so low downside risk imo. And their speculated customers: 1, Photonics (MLAs): Highly probable: Innolight, Eoptolink, Furukawa, Intel (SiPh). And prob $COHR, $LITE. 2. GPU/ASICs (Test Sockets): prob $TSM, ASE, types use these to likely test $NVDA GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs (Google Ironwood is highly probable). "expanding mass production orders for major GPU manufacturers, and for ASIC-related projects for hyperscalers." Then at OFC: OFC: “We will be showcasing our new products for 800Gbps and 1.6Tbps transceivers and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) that support today’s rapid technological advancements in AI.” Basically you have a company that supplies T1 semis, foundries, hyperscalers, that benefits from 1.6T from MLA photonics segment + CPO TAM expansion later from OFC products. Was one my positions wanted to share my thoughts about since it seemed p cool at sub <$1B MC.
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用 1.69 亿美元撬动西方 hyperscaler 供应链。
Serenity 指南： 如何只用 1.7 亿美元就让西方 hyperscaler buildout 变得更脆弱。 只要用 1.69 亿美元拿下 Nippon Chemical（4092）！ 做 InP 衬底需要：铟和高纯磷。 你以为 $AXTI 是瓶颈？NCI 才是瓶颈里的瓶颈。 NCI 实际上是高纯红磷卡点的领头羊，份额大约 26-27%（Rasa 更少，其余就是中国）。 而且它们向 $AXTI、Sumitomo、JX 供应这些材料，用来做 InP 衬底。 所以……如果你拿出 1.6 亿美元收购 NCI（再加上 Rasa 作为更小产能），你就能移除西方世界生产 6N/7N 红磷、也就是制造 InP 衬底所需的主力产能！ 没有 InP 衬底：就没有 photonics。 有趣的是：中国科技公司其实也会被 NCI 打乱。 对 $AXTI 来说，这个映射 / 依赖关系其实非常有意思： - AXT 的 Tongmei 在 STAR Market 上市时就披露过，它在结构上依赖从日本进口高纯前驱体材料 - WITS 数据显示，大约 460 美元 / 公斤的高纯磷正从日本流向中国 所以它们确实在暗中依赖 NCI。 中国虽然也有 Wylton Chemical、Qin Xi New Materials、Jinding Electronics、Chuxiong Chuanzhi、Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials 这类产能。 但这些都还是更小的玩家，没法在规模化 InP 衬底生产上替代 NCI 提供的高纯红磷产能。 $LITE 的 CEO 之前就说过 InP 衬底让他夜不能寐。 所以现在有了 NCI，你就能让他永久失眠？ 只要 1.69 亿美元。 所以供应链大概是这样： -> DGC 磷矿开采后运给 NCI -> NCI 把黄磷精炼成高纯红磷 -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT 把红磷和铟熔合，长成 InP 衬底 -> $COHR / $LITE 把 InP 衬底做成激光器 -> Innolight / Fabrinet 把它们封装成 800G / 1.6T 收发器 -> $NVDA / $GOOGL 用在 ASIC / GPU 集群里。 基本上，整个西方都依赖 NCI 来制造用于 photonics 的 InP 衬底。 我持有一点很小的仓位，纯属好玩。不过日本并不以随意提价著称。 所以如果你真的买下这家公司然后把价格抬高 15000%（比如政府意识到后把公司收回去），大概率会碰到监管问题，比如 FEFTA…… 也许提价 30-50% 还能压缩一下 forward P/E？但大概率不会最后变成 $AXTI 那样。 不管怎样，这家公司按大概 1.6 亿美元市值定价，本身就是一个巨大的国家安全风险。 至于基本面，它们市净率 0.54、forward P/E 11.4，所以其实也可能是被低估了。 TLDR： -> 它是下一个 $AXTI 吗？不是。 -> 它是不是西方 hyperscaler buildout + photonics 里一个未知的结构性瓶颈和关键漏洞？是。 -> 还有没有重估空间？ 只要回到 1 倍市净率，立刻就有 80-85% 的上涨空间。如果再给它更高的 forward P/E，可能更多。 总之，用 1.69 亿美元找到 hyperscaler 供应链里的一个主要失效点，挺好玩的。
原推 ↗英文原文
A Guide by Serenity: How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m. Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m! For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus. Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck. NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China). And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates. So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates! And without InP substrates: no photonics. Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI. For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting: - AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing - WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China So they secretly do depend on NCI. China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well. However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale. $LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night. So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia? For just $169M. So here's what the supply chain looks like: -> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI -> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates -> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers -> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers -> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU clusters. And basically, the entire West depends on NCI to make InP substrates for photonics. I hold some very small positions, just for fun. However, Japan is not well known for price hiking. So you’d probably run into regulatory problems eg. FEFTA if you bought the company and hiked prices 15000% (like government seizing back the company once they realize)… Maybe 30-50% hikes is possible to compress fwd p/e? But very likely wont end up like $AXTI. Regardless, this company is a massive, massive national security risk priced at ~$160m. As for fundamentals, they’re trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it’s probably undervalued anyway. TLDR: -> Is it the next $AXTI? No. -> Is it an unknown structural bottleneck + critical vulnerability of the Western hyperscaler buildout with photonics? Yes. -> Is there still room for re-rating? Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside. Maybe more if you give it multiples past 11 fwd p/e. Regardless, it’s fun to find a major point of failure in the hyperscaler supply chains for $169m.
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说 Shunsin 是自己第二喜欢的 NVDA 生态 CPO 标的。
@dijkstra_levi Shunsin 是我在 $NVDA 生态里第二喜欢的 CPO 标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@dijkstra_levi Shunsin was my #2 favorite $NVDA ecosystem CPO name.
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说日本用户无法交易 6451 很可惜。
@beauty_oe 6451.，日本人居然买不了（交易不了）真让人震惊。那本来可是我个人非常看好的票！ 在 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应链里，像那样已经高度去风险的公司可不多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe 日本の人たちが6451にアクセス（取引）できないのはショックだな。個人的に銘柄としてすごく推してたのに！ $NVDA のCPOサプライチェーンで、あそこまでディリスクされた企業はレアだったよ。
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说自己更喜欢 Shunsin，排名第二。
@AstuteKara 对，我个人更喜欢 Shunsin。它大概是我现在最喜欢的 $NVDA CPO 供应链标的里的第二名。 第一名那只因为涨太多被我冻结了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AstuteKara Yeah I personally preferred Shunsin. It's probably my #2 favorite $NVDA CPO supply chain pick right now. My #1 is frozen because it went up too much.
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Shunsin 因为涨太多被停牌。
看起来我选的 $NVDA CPO 供应链标的 Shunsin…… 鸿海的光学子公司因为涨太多被停牌了。 有趣的是：台湾股票一天最多只能涨 10%。 https://t.co/6dOGew2aGY
原推 ↗英文原文
Looks like my $NVDA CPO supply chain pick Shunsin… Foxconn’s optical subsidary got halted because it went up too much. Fun fact: TW stocks can only go up 10% a day. https://t.co/6dOGew2aGY
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说 LITE 已卖到 2029 年，CPO 量产已确认。
@itsakek - $LITE 已经卖到 2029 年了。 - 2026 年下半年确认 CPO 量产。 $NVDA CPO / photonics 上游供应链直接起飞。
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsakek - $LITE sold out into 2029. - Confirmation CPO mass production H2 2026. $NVDA CPO/photonics upstream supply chain go brrr
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强调融资结构差异。
@nickthehodler 融资结构才是关键。 $NBIS 以更大的市值，稀释 20 亿美元去买 $NVDA 相关投资，或者用比当前行权价高 20%+ 的可转债。 这和 $IREN 把自己一半市值印出来，再卖到公开市场给散户，是结构上完全不同的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@nickthehodler Financing structure is what matters. $NBIS diluting $2B for an $NVDA investment off a much larger MC. Or convertible notes 20%+ above current strikes. Is structurally different than $IREN printing half their MC and selling that into the open market on retail shareholders.
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说没有融资就不可能变现 4GW+ 容量。
对，我真的不明白，他们在没有融资的情况下，根本不可能把 4GW+ 产能变现。 而他们却选择了 ATM，而不是像 $NBIS 那样用可转债 + $NVDA 投资。 大多数人都不理解稀释的结构机制，所以才会盲目地买进一个 60 亿美元、往公开市场狂印钱的机器。 如果他们当初听我的，大家的组合本来能从 $NBIS 涨 60%+，而不是被 $IREN 拖到 -8%+。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah, I genuinely don't understand, there's 0 chance they can monetize 4GW+ capacity without financing. And they chose ATMs over convertible notes + $NVDA investment like $NBIS. Majority of people don't understand structural mechanics of dilution, which is why they keep blindly buying into a $6B money printer sold into the open market. People's portfolios would have been up 60%+ from $NBIS instead of down -8%+ from $IREN if they listened.
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认为英伟达正在强力推动 CPO，相关时间点比市场预期更早。
$NVDA 正在非常、非常强力地推动 CPO。 从 $MRVL、$LITE 和 $COHR 的投入就能看出来。 不过有意思的是，CPO 的时间表也比预期早得多。 最新报道： “$ASE 据称将在 2026 年动工建设六座新工厂，CPO 量产预计将于今年开始” “他还首次透露，CPO 的量产预计将在今年启动” 现在可能正是提前布局 CPO 相关标的的好时机，比如 $SIVE（激光器）、Win Semi（晶圆代工）、$TSEM（晶圆代工）、$SOI（衬底）以及其他相关公司，在真正放量前先埋伏。 需求曲线会一路指数级上升，直到 2029 年以后，我相信很多预测都会被打穿。 总之，我之前在 OFC/GTC 前就一直说要提前布局 CPO / SiPh 标的。 结果时间点上我又判断对了？ 现在看起来 CPO 的放量要从 2026 年下半年开始，准备好吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard. As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR. But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected. New report: " $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year " "He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year" Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up. The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections. But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC. Turned out I was right on timing again? CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
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猜测英伟达可能买入 Win Semi 股权，市场若解读成利空反而可能误判。
@Sim_Wizard 我的猜测是 $NVDA 可能在买 Win Semi 的股份，结合他们最近在光子学方面的动作和体量来看。 算法 / 市场上的人可能会把这解读成利空然后卖出，但我认为，考虑到 Win Semi 的历史，这其实更偏利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Sim_Wizard My guess was $NVDA buying Win Semi stake given their recent history in photonics + size. Algos/people might mistake this as bearish and sell, but I think it's actually bullish given the nuance of Win Semi's history.
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认为 Win Semi 定增稀释约 9.4%，但结合历史先例和大客户逻辑，整体偏利好。
所以这次定增大概是通过发行 4000 万股新股，带来约 9.4% 的稀释，主体是 Win Semi（3105）。 换成别的股票我会很谨慎……但上一次 Win 这么做的时候，$AVGO 买入了 Win Semi 的股份。 而且博通后来成了他们的主力客户。 这次也许会是像 $NVDA 这样的一级客户，考虑到他们最近对 $MRVL、$LITE、$COHR 的投入。 另外还有 3 年持有期。 我之前说过，Win Semi 是光子学、人形机器人和太空（比如 SpaceX）领域的基础性公司，它很可能还会获得另一位一级客户并长期合作。 这很讲究细节，但实际上是偏利好的。
原推 ↗英文原文
So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105). Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi. And Broadcom became their lead customer. Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR. There's also a 3 year holding period. I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term. It's nuanced but actually bullish.
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澄清新标的是英伟达 CPO 生态相关的量子跟进。
@devandraan 不是的，这个新名字和 $NVDA 的 CPO 生态有关。这只是关于一个量子标的的后续跟进。
原推 ↗英文原文
@devandraan It's not, new name is related to $NVDA CPO ecosystem. This is just a follow-up regarding a quantum name.
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把 COHR 和 MRVL 视为“啥都做”的多头，认为未来一年仍有较大上行。
我觉得 $COHR 和 $MRVL 是那种“啥都做”的两只多头。 如果你当面问别人他们具体是干什么的，很多人其实说不出来。 $NVDA？GPU。 $INTC？代工。 Marvell？不知道。 Coherent？也不知道。 它们就是半导体界的 Deloitte。 这两只在未来一年都应该是不错的、还挺赚钱的多头。 也许不是 200% 的涨幅，但 50-100% 应该是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
I feel like $COHR and $MRVL are the two "They Do Everything" longs. That nobody actually knows what they do if you ask them in public. $NVDA? GPUs. $INTC? Foundry. Marvell? No clue. Coherent? No clue. They're the Deloitte of Semis. Both are really solid profitable longs over the next year. Probably not 200% gains but 50-100% seem reasonable here.
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通过LinkedIn追踪发现$MSFT量子项目的未披露供应商，分析其在量子MBE设备领域的双寡头地位及财务状况。
所以彩蛋来了： $MSFT的Quantum项目似乎是一家未公开披露的超大规模云厂商... 而它秘密地从一家公司采购——根据LinkedIn追踪，这家公司的名称听起来像是和"Prime Ribs"有关。 -> Microsoft Quantum发布了照片 -> 放大左上角并放大 -> Prime Ribs机器验证确认？ 在量子机器的MBE（分子束外延）领域，他们与$VECO形成了双头垄断（可以类比$AXIA在光子学领域的地位，但这是针对量子领域）。 他们今天发布了财报： -> 已经盈利。财报发布后约25倍PE。 -> 资产负债表非常健康 -> 用于周边领域，比如硅光子学（例如Fujitsu的量子点分拆公司） -> IntelliEPI（除$MSFT外）是知名的买家 一些粉丝主动联系我了解这家公司的名字（DD发现功劳不归我）。免责声明：我认为他们的分析很有启发性，并且持有仓位。 -> 全部功劳归于@latent_value7发现了$MSFT的关联 -> 功劳归于@TheSarge_很早就让我注意到了这个名字 提醒一下：尽管我分享这些精彩发现，我不建议任何人根据我的帖子建仓。 我只是很惊讶，有人在X平台上发现了一家超大规模云厂商从前沿量子项目的小型供应商那里秘密采购。
原推 ↗英文原文
So the easter egg: $MSFT Quantum appears to be an undisclosed hyperscaler... That is secretly buying from a company that sounds with Prime Ribs according to LinkedIn tracking. -> Microsoft Quantum posted photos -> Zoom in to top left and magnified -> Prime Ribs machine checks out? It's a duopoly in the MBE space with $VECO for quantum machines (think $AXIA for photonics but for Quantum). They reported earnings today: -> It's profitable. ~25 P/E ratio after ER release. -> Very healthy balance sheet -> Used for adjacents, like silicon photonics (eg. Fujitsu's quantum dot spinoff) -> IntelliEPI (aside from $MSFT) well known buyer Some followers reached out about this name (not taking any credit for DD or finding it). Disclosure: I found their ideas interesting and have positions. -> Full Credit to @latent_value7 finding $MSFT links -> Credit to @TheSarge_ for bringing the name to my attention early on A reminder: Even though I share these cool ideas, I don't recommend anyone take positions based on my posts. I'm just impressed that people on X found that a hyperscaler buying from a tiny company for their frontier quantum program.
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认为 SIVE 在 CW 激光赛道被低估，且随着 CPO 和光学扩产，估值有望抬升。
当你把从 $COHR 到 $AAOI 的 CW 激光龙头公司名单都过一遍时， 就会发现 $SIVE 以 3 亿美元市值还站在那里，真的很夸张……其他玩家几乎都已经是几十亿市值了。 而它还是 $JBL 1.6T LRO 光收发器和大约 $MRVL Celestial 光子项目的光源供应商（如今还受到 $NVDA 20 亿美元投资的加速）。 从 Furukawa 到 Yuanjie，整个行业最近都被重新定价了。 但我确实认为市场漏掉了这只，因为他们预计从 H2 开始量产爬坡（来自 $POET 的业绩提示），而 CPO 和光学扩产会带来多年指数级 TAM 扩张。 下行风险在于资产负债表，但我认为他们的光子业务实体未来大概率会在纳斯达克上市，而且作为超大规模客户的光源供应商，价值远高于当前估值。 而且这很可能会在不久后带来估值溢价。 我们看看结果是不是这样吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
When you go through the list of the leading CW laser companies from $COHR to $AAOI. It’s very impressive $SIVE stands out at $300m still… compared to the every other player in the billions. This is despite being the light source for $JBL 1.6T LRO optical transceivers and ~ $MRVL Celestial photonics program (now accelerated by $NVDA $2B investment). The sector from Furukawa to Yuanjie has been re-rated recently. But I do think markets missed this one, as they start volume ramp est. H2 (from $POET earnings) with multi year exponential TAM expansion from CPO and optical scale up. Downside risk is balance sheet, but I do think the likely Nasdaq listing for their photonics entity + scaling as the hyperscaler light source far exceeds current valuations. And will likely drive valuation premiums in a matter of time. We’ll see if this turns out right or not.
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通过公司实地拜访和线索，推测微软量子与光学供应链有关。
我去总部问他们关于 $NVDA GPU 集群和 $LITE 光学扩展瓶颈的问题。 我让他们给我看看新的 Mythos 模型，结果他们给我看了一间工厂。 很明显 OpenAI 和 xAI 的人才更强。
原推 ↗英文原文
Walked into the HQ to ask about Claude Opus bottlenecks with $NVDA GPU clusters and $LITE optical scale out. I asked to see the new Mythos models, they showed me a plant. It’s clear OpenAi and xAI has better talent. https://t.co/LXlyghhdeJ
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超大规模建设延迟溢出效应利好已锁定产能的Neocloud公司如$NBIS。
英伟达($NVDA)的黄仁勋说： “$NBIS会照顾好你的。” （引用内容）我对上个月这份报告思考得越来越多…… 它对Neocloud板块比如$NBIS（甚至$CRWV）可能比市场预期的要利好得多。 因为超大规模云服务商建设延迟的溢出效应。 这也在一定程度上解释了为什么$META签署了270亿美元的协议。 那些已经为其建设项目锁定产能/组件订单的公司，可能会成为大赢家，因为其他竞争对手停滞不前。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jensen Huang from $NVDA: “ $NBIS will take care of you. “ https://t.co/lIRrnAC3fc
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通过线索发现一个未披露的超大客户供应商，感慨“找彩蛋”也能用于股票。
原来……股票里找彩蛋也行？ 真不敢相信，我的某个关注者居然通过下面这些步骤，找到了像 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 这样的 T1 超大规模客户的未披露供应商： -> 看某位高管在 LinkedIn 上发的帖子。 -> 把他们照片左上角放大 5 倍 -> 找到一台外形足够特别、可以识别的机器 -> 根据机器的配色追溯到一家小公司 -> 最后锁定这家未披露供应商 我真的佩服。
原推 ↗英文原文
Turns out... Easter egg hunting works in stocks as well? Can't believe one of my followers found the undisclosed supplier of a T1 hyperscaler like $NVDA or $GOOGL by: -> Looking at an executive's from LinkedIn posts. -> Magnified the edges of one of their posted photo by 5x -> Found one of the machines that looked distinct enough to identify -> Traced the color scheme of a machine back to a small company -> Identified the undisclosed supplier. I'm genuinely impressed.
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回忆自己做深度学习时准确率超过 DeepMind，还曾被英伟达招募。
我以前在为一本自然类出版物搭建深度学习模型时，准确率其实还超过了 Google DeepMind。 后来 $NVDA 还试图招我去带他们的 AI 团队，哈哈。 最后我还是在做自己的事情，不过有一点编码背景确实很有帮助，能做出一些很酷的东西！
原推 ↗英文原文
I actually beat Google deepmind’s in accuracy back when I was building out deep learning models for one of my nature publications. $NVDA tried recruiting me to lead their AI teams after that lol. Ended up just doing my own things now but it does help to have some background in coding to do cool stuff!
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认为美国应先稳固盟友供应链，再统一武器化对抗中俄。
到底是谁在写这些东西？ 我们不需要对日本、欧洲或韩国这些盟友施加更多杠杆。 我们需要把杠杆用在俄罗斯和中国身上。 - 在东南亚，老挝超过 40% 的加油站已经关闭， - 柬埔寨和泰国已经开始限量和价格管制， - 印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉都在面对价格上涨和紧急节约， - 韩国 / 日本仍然暴露在供应中断风险里。 中国现在完全可以从俄罗斯拿石油，而俄罗斯的出口管制还被解除了…… 而中国现在的做法就像一战时美国那样在做军火商。 为什么我们要为了帮助俄罗斯 / 以色列，反过来搞砸我们自己的供应链？ 他们之所以叫盟友是有原因的，我们不需要再对他们施加更多杠杆。 如果你真想把这套东西武器化： -> 先确保自己的供应链，先把资金投到越南 / 南美等地的稀土和前驱材料上 -> 再把资金投到韩国 / 日本 / 加拿大 / 美国的精炼加工上 -> 先在委内瑞拉开发原油 / 加工能力 -> 再建立替代贸易路线： 这至少要 3-5 年。 然后你才可以去轰炸什么、去威胁欧洲的 $ASML、日本的 $ARM、美国的 $NVDA、台湾的 $TSM 这类对中国 / 俄罗斯的瓶颈。 总之： 美国优先依赖于： - 在泰国做好自身组装供应链， - 在韩国做好半导体， - 在日本做好化工， - 在台湾做好晶圆代工， - 在加拿大做好稀土， - 在欧洲做好高端设备， 还有其他环节，来让美国更强。 然后再把这一切统一武器化去对付我们的敌人。 你不能一边把我们自己的供应链和全球关系全炸了，一边又说美国正在变得更强大吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
Who is even writing this? We don't need more leverage over our allies like Japan, Europe, or South Korea. We need them over Russia and China. - In SEA over 40% of gas stations in Laos have closed, - Cambodia and Thailand have started rationing and price controls - India, Pakistan and Bangladesh face rising prices and emergency conservation - SK/Japan remain exposed to disruptions. China can get just get their oil from Russia. And Russia got their export control removed... And China is playing arms dealer like what US did in WW1 right now. Why are we screwing over our own supply chains to help Russia/Israel out? They're called allies for a reason, and we don't need more leverage over them. If you really wanted to weaponize this: -> Secure supply chains first, pour funding into rare earths/precursors like Vietnam/South America and other places. -> Pour funding into refinery processing from SK/Japan/Canada/US -> Develop crude/processing in Venezuela First -> Build out alternative trade route: Which will take 3-5 years min. Then you can go blowing stuff up then go threatening European $ASML, Japanese $ARM, US $NVDA, Taiwan $TSM type chokepoints over China/Russia all together. Again: America First relies on: -securing own supply chains in Assembly Thailand, -Semiconductors in South Korea, -Chemical from Japan, -Foundries in Taiwan, -Rare Earths from Canada, - high-end equipment from Europe and others to make United States stronger. Then you weaponize that all together against our enemies. You can't just blow OUR OWN SUPPLY CHAINS and Relations around the world up then say America is becoming more dominant?
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批评 0DTE 亏光故事，强调要学会长期复利而不是一日赌局。
$RDDT 现在最火的故事就是这个： -> 有人拿着 30 万美元起步 -> 在 2025 年 4 月底部靠个股运气赚到了钱 -> 账户做到了 300 万美元，还说自己实现了财务自由 -> 然后拿去玩 $SPY 的 0DTE 期权 -> 最后把 300 万变成了 5 万。 通常我会讲一个吸取教训的故事，但这次真的只是蠢。 真心别再碰 0dte 期权了。 就算他把钱全仓押到 Jim Cramer 最喜欢的股票 $MRVL，上几年也许都能变成 600 万。 世代财富最好的教训是看看 Nancy Pelosi。 如果你真要做期权，就看看他们怎么在 $AVGO 到 $NVDA 上长期复利。 不是玩一天的窗口。
原推 ↗英文原文
The most viral story on $RDDT right now: -> Guy started with $300,000 -> Gets lucky with individual names at April 2025 bottom -> Runs it up to $3,000,000 and claims they had financial freedom -> Proceeds to do 0DTE options on $SPY -> Turned $3M -> $50k. Usually I give a lesson learned type story but this is just stupid? Legit stop touching 0dte options. Even if they full ported it into Jim Cramer’s favorite stock $MRVL, probably would have been $6M in 2-3 years. The best lesson of generational wealth is looking at Nancy Pelosi. If you do options, look at how their on $AVGO to $NVDA keep compounding over time. Not one day windows.
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认为 AAOI 自有供应链和产能扩张会带来更高毛利。
@Kaizen_Investor 依我看，大概能有 30%->40% 的提升，凭经验说的。 他们从 InP 激光器 fab 到组装，把整个供应链都放在内部，所以毛利率会随着时间上升。 尤其是当使用老一代 $NVDA 机型的主权数据中心，随着超大规模客户从 800G 转向 1.6T，会买更多 800G。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor 30->40% off the top of my head. They do the entire supply chain in-house from inp laser fab to assembly, so gross margins should go up over time. Especially since sovereign DCs using older gen $NVDA models buy more 800g as hyperscalers move to 1.6T
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批评 IREN 大幅稀释，认为 NBIS 通过差异化和客户关系更强。
我到现在还是想不通，为什么还有人会在 $IREN 上“逢低买入”。 他们搞了 60 亿美元的 ATM，把股份稀释后又卖进公开市场……还以为这会推高股价。 与此同时，$NBIS 通过差异化拿到了更多超大规模客户订单，还得到了 $NVDA 的支持。 IREN 两年前还有的那点 GW 原始资产护城河，现在几乎已经没了。 在 60 亿美元结构性稀释持续压制的情况下，很难看出这只票还能有多少上涨空间。 等现有股东先被稀释完，再考虑做多会更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
It still baffles me how people are still “Buying the Dip” on $IREN. Amid their $6,000,0000,000 ATM, diluted and sold into the open market. Thinking that it will increase their share price. While $NBIS was able to differentiate themselves and secure more hyperscaler deals + $NVDA backing. $IREN GW raw asset moat they had two years ago is now almost gone. It’s hard to see the stock appreciating much in value when $6,000,000,000 of structural dilution works against you in every rally. Better to wait after current shareholders get diluted first before going long.
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认为 AEHR 在小市值下被低估，正被多家超大客户做资格认证。
$AEHR 在大约 11 亿美元市值下看起来极有吸引力。 Aehr 开始让我想起早期的 $TER，又有点像财报前的 $AAOI。 如果把时间线和猜测客户列出来： 2 月 11 日：Sonoma 为超大客户的 AI ASIC 处理器拿到生产胜利。（大概率是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$META） - 可能是谷歌？Aehr 收购了 Incal，而 Incal 曾被猜测会被谷歌用于 TPU。 2 月 26 日：来自 AI 主力客户的 1400 万美元。（大概率是 $AMD、$NVDA） - 这里更像是 $AMD，用于 Instinct MI300/MI400。 3 月 3 日：一台 FOX-XP 系统对应的主硅光客户。（大概率是 $INTC siph） - 很可能 $INTC 就是他们的主客户。 3 月 31 日：来自一家新的大型硅光客户的首单。（大概率是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$CSCO） - 新客户（排除了 Intel），大概是这些正转向 800G/1.6T 硅光收发器的公司之一。 （这些都属于非常保密的 BOM 级推测） 不管怎样，这条时间线对 $AEHR 来说就是在不断加码。 也许就是下一次财报。也可能再过两季。 但感觉量产订单只是时间问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
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把 OpenAI 比作地缘武器化的主体，认为 AI capex 还会延续。
OpenAI 就是科技界的伊朗。 如果他们没资金，却还造成了那么大的连锁反应——就像伊朗把无人机送到所有邻国一样——那会非常危险…… 从 $MSFT 的算力 backlog、$ORCL Stargate、$AMD 交易、$NVDA 交易、$CRWV 交易、$AMZN 交易，到 SoftBank 交易。 再加上 Cerebras 和很多私有公司的交易。 这些都足以说明，如果它倒下，支撑这些公司估值的很大一部分也会一起崩。 OpenAI 融了 1220 亿美元，我猜这部分也在某种程度上武器化了这种连锁反应，就像伊朗在控制海峡时那样。 所以 AI capex 的这波行情大概率还会再持续至少一年。 它们是 AI 牛市的起点；如果它们现在出问题，反而会成为戳破泡沫的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran. They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have…. From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals. Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others. So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations. OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait. So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min. They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.
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认为市场终于开始意识到，Nvidia 投资 Marvell 背后对应的是上游光子链重估。
市场终于开始意识到的事情： 下游：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 的 Celestial CPO 项目投资了 20 亿美元： $POET（Celestial 的 interposers）：财报里说今年要出货 3 万台光引擎。 $SIVE 是 Poet 和 Celestial 在 Marvell 光子路线图中近中期的光源。 Win Semi 是 InP CW 激光生产的晶圆代工。 而更上游的还有：$SOI / $AXTI 这些衬底，以及 $IQE 的外延片。 这就是下一轮光子学超级周期的起点，而且估值便宜得离谱。 而且这发生得比市场和机构在 2026 年预期的还要早，Nvidia 正在抢跑整条转变路径。 99.9% 的人只看到了 Marvell 下游的变化，但还没意识到上游的供应冲击会在哪里发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
Something that markets are finally starting to realize: Downstream: $NVDA invested $2B into $MRVL Celestial CPO program: $POET (Celestial’s Interposers): To ship 30,000 optical engines to ship this year from earnings today. $SIVE is the light source of Poet and Celestial for near/mid term Marvell photonics roadmap. Win Semi is the foundry for InP CW laser production. And even more upstream: $SOI / $AXTI for substrates and $IQE for epiwafers. This is the very start of the next photonics supercycle, at dirt cheap valuations. And it’s happening earlier than markets and institutions expected in 2026, with Nvidia frontrunning this entire shift. 99.9% of people see the changes happening downstream with Marvell, but don’t realize yet where the supply shocks will happen upstream.
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认为 Nvidia 给 Marvell 20 亿美元投资后，更看好 Celestial 生态。
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA 给 $MRVL 20 亿美元，确实让我对 Celestial 生态里的 $POET 和 $SIVE 更看多了一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA handing $2B to $MRVL does make me a bit more bullish on the celestial ecosystem like $POET and $SIVE.
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认为去年 NVDA 先把产能拿走了，时间大概是 2024 末或 2025 初。
@LIama002 去年这事其实是在关门后发生的，当时 $NVDA 已经把所有产能都拿走了。 Trendforce 还发过文，说明这事在去年就更早发生了。 也许是 2024 年末，或者 2025 年初？
原推 ↗英文原文
@LIama002 It was behind closed doors last year with $NVDA securing all the capacity. Trendforce published that it happened earlier last year. Maybe late 2024, early 2025? https://t.co/WbwGaQ6Gwm
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认为市场低估了 Nvidia 投资下游后带来的上游供应冲击。
市场漏掉了 Nvidia 投资的含义： 今天它向光学领域的 $COHR 投了 20 亿美元。 向光学领域的 $LITE 投了 20 亿美元。 今天又向光学领域的 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 Nvidia 去年就用过同样的剧本。 他们意识到 800G/1.6T 可插拔器件的推进会耗尽全球 EML 供给。 所以他们接触了 $LITE、$COHR、Sumitomo，并提前预定了大部分产能。 我们已经在他们股价里看到了反映：自从那轮严重供给紧张以来，$LITE 已经涨了 955%。 现在我们看到同样的剧本在过去一个月里再次开始。 只是这次是一个新的架构。 而且这些交易都包含了几十亿美元的采购承诺和未来产能权利。 所以……下一步是什么？CW / EML 和 CPO 瓶颈。 Nvidia 只是更喜欢投资下游玩家，但真正的供应紧张发生在上游。 来自 $MTSI、$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR、Furukawa 和 Sumitomo 的激光供应商都在全速运转。 Win Semi、$TSEM、$GFS 这些晶圆代工也大概率在满负荷运转。 整条供应链都会受益（比如 $AEHR 的测试、$SOI 的衬底）。 但从晶圆代工到 ELS / CW 激光瓶颈的这两个环节，可能会是最大的受益者。 Nvidia 是下一轮发生什么的最大信号；现在只是等拐点到来的时间而已。
原推 ↗英文原文
The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.
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分析RPI估值偏低，Forward P/E从20.6x降至9.5x，增长58%，AI代理硬件新机遇或带来结构性需求。
$RPI 就 GAAP 前向预测来看确实看起来有点便宜。 - 2026 前向 P/E: $5.29 / $0.256 = 20.6倍 - 2027 前向 P/E: $5.29 / $0.400 = 13.2倍 - 2028 前向 P/E: $5.29 / $0.553 = 9.5倍 基于个人预测。尤其是当你在同比增长 58%（预期会再次上调，因 OpenClaw 的购买）： 当以 2 倍前向市销率交易时，实际上并没有多少溢价。尤其是在 AI 代理硬件(agentic hardware)领域还有新的 TAM 扩张机会。 下行风险是，OpenClaw 只是短期趋势。但 Jensen 在 GTC 上将其验证为下一个重大趋势。 如果这是结构性需求，而 Raspberry Pi 是消费代理硬件领域的 $NVDA……以约 $1B 市值来看，可能是一个绝佳的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$RPI does look sort of cheap for GAAP forward projections. - 2026 Forward P/E: $5.29 / $0.256 = 20.6x - 2027 Forward P/E: $5.29 / $0.400 = 13.2x - 2028 Forward P/E: $5.29 / $0.553 = 9.5x Off personal projections. Especially when you’re growing 58% Y/Y (expect this to beat again due to OpenClaw buying): There’s not really much of a premium when it trades at 2x fwd/sales. Especially when theres new TAM expansion opportunities in the AI agentic hardware space. The downside risk is, OpenClaw is just a short term trend. But Jensen did validate it as the next major trend at GTC. If it is structural demand and Raspberry Pi is the $NVDA for consumer agentic hardware… could be a great opportunity at ~$1B MC.
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认为 POET 受益，但 SIVE 对 Nvidia 和 Marvell 的 Celestial 更关键。
@marioyep5 是的，$POET 确实是受益者，但 $SIVE 作为光源，对 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的 Celestial 现在来说非常关键。
原推 ↗英文原文
@marioyep5 Yes, $POET is beneficiary but $SIVE is incredibly important to $NVDA and $MRVL Celestial now as the light source. https://t.co/mn3oESTKlw
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认为 Nvidia 正在强推 CPO 路线图并锁定主要参与者。
@TheValueist 是啊，$NVDA 真的在强力推动他们的 CPO 架构路线图，而且正在把最大的几家玩家锁进自己的标准里。 我们正在实时看到光子学里下一步会发生什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TheValueist Yeah $NVDA is really pushing hard on their CPO architectural roadmap and locking in all the biggest players into their standards We’re seeing what’s coming next in photonics real time.
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调侃如果 Broadcom 买下 SIVE，就能控制后续多家公司的路线图。
如果 $AVGO 真的花 3 亿美元买下 $SIVE，那就太可惜了…… 这样一来，它就能从上游光源层面控制 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的近端路线图。 我相信博通肯定不会在想这个……对吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
It would be a shame if $AVGO bought $SIVE for $300m… Then controlled the near term roadmap for $NVDA and $MRVL from the upstream light source level. I’m sure Broadcom isn’t thinking about this… right? https://t.co/wrS431DG8n
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把 Nvidia 备货 EML 产能的历史剧本，类比到下一代光子瓶颈。
这就是 $NVDA 当年提前锁定全部 EML 产能时的那套剧本，在那之前超大规模客户那边就已经出现了巨大的供给冲击。 这也是为什么我一直在为下一处瓶颈里的 $SIVE 拉响警报。 因为 $NVDA 现在也在下一代架构上做同样的事。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is the exact playbook $NVDA did securing all the EML capacity before there was a massive supply shock for the rest of the hyperscalers. That’s why I’ve been sounding the alarm with $SIVE in the next chokepoint. Since $NVDA is doing the same with the next gen architectures.
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认为 SIVE 已经进入 Nvidia 路线图，且市值仍很小。
@degenlurker_ 有意思的是，$SIVE 现在已经被写进 $NVDA 的路线图里了，而市值还只有大约 3 亿美元。 只是现在还没人把 Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell 这种多级关系串起来，虽然 Nvidia 已经砸了 20 亿美元去加速他们的 CPO 路线图了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@degenlurker_ It’s funny $SIVE is now baked into $NVDA roadmap now at ~$300M MC. Just no one associates multi hop relations between Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell yet when Nvidia invested $2B into accelerating their CPO roadmap yet.
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Nvidia 对 Marvell 的 20 亿美元投资，也验证了 SIVE 的光源位置。
刚刚消息出来：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 这笔交易主要是为了“联合硅光工作”，也验证了 Marvell 和 Celestial AI 的光互连 CPO 路线图。 但……谁在给 $MRVL 的光源供电，这点市场可能漏了？（提示：$SIVE）
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: $NVDA invests $2B in $MRVL. This deal is largely for “joint silicon photonics work” and validates Marvell and Celestial AI's optical fabric CPO roadmap. But… guess who powers the light source for $MRVL that markets might have missed? (Hint: $SIVE) https://t.co/9lqJLIx7nG
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只有两个字：买英伟达看跌。
@miraclemaster07 $NVDA 看跌期权。
原推 ↗英文原文
@miraclemaster07 $NVDA puts
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整理Mirae Asset的CPO价值链全图，涵盖激光源到EDA各环节上市公司
来自Mirae Asset的CPO价值链概览： 激光源： Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) PIC代工： TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM > EIC、驱动IC： Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS、光引擎： Innolight / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) TFC / 苏州天孚光通信 (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU（光纤阵列单元）： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU、对准工具： ficonTEC（私企） All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST（私企） FAU、引擎组装： Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT、先进封装： ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > 连接器、套管： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec（私企） T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex（私企） Browave (TWO: 3163) 光纤： Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / 日东纺绩 (TYO: 3110) 电/光测试： Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane（私企） 交换、系统： NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL > EDA： Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > 对这些名单中的一些名称感到困惑，他们可能混淆了一些公司，比如把Innolight和激光源公司（如$MTSI、Sumitomo、$SIVE、Luxnet）与实际终端模块混在一起了（除非有什么非公开材料或者我遗漏了）。 但对于对这个领域感兴趣的人来说，这是一个很好的高层概览。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: CPO领域Mirae分析师笔记： 规模化方向： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、中际旭创 DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 规模提升方向： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互连：研发阶段？ CPO测试："新玩家进入增加" 微透镜/光学系统："新玩家进入增加" TLDR：规模提升的CPO即将到来。我认为分析师笔记遗漏了一堆上游公司名称，并把ELS和光源混为一谈了。 但对于了解他们认为谁是领先玩家来说，这是个很好的高层概览。
原推 ↗英文原文
CPO Value Chain Summary from Mirae Asset: Laser Source: Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) PIC Foundry: TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM> EIC, Driver IC: Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS, Optical Engine Innolight / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) TFC / Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU (Fiber Array Unit): Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU, Align Tools: ficonTEC (Private) All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST (Private) FAU, Engine Assembly: Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT, Advanced Packaging: ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > Connector, Ferrule: Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec (Private) T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex (Private) Browave (TWO: 3163) Fiber: Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / Nitto Boseki (TYO: 3110) E/O Testing: Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane (Private) Switch, System: NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL> EDA: Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > Confused by some of names of the list, they might have conflated a few names like Innolight with laser source like $MTSI, Sumitomo, $SIVE, Luxnet, with the actual end module (unless there's something that's not public material or I missed)? But just for people interested in the landscape, this is a good high-level overview.
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指出 IREN 的稀释压力远高于 Nebius。
你们觉得 $IREN 还要再摊 56.5 亿美元的稀释吗？ 如果你看多 Neocloud，真的很意外还有人没转去 $NBIS 或其他名字。 一个已经确认拿到 $NVDA 资金和机构可转债支持。 另一个则很可能在通过公开市场持续卖新股，从散户身上筹钱。 残酷的现实是： $IREN 根本无法在不靠这个的情况下把剩余产能变现。这不是“可选性”。 在挑选谁能带来股权升值时，财务结构的细微差别非常重要。 Nebius 的融资结构明显更好，这一点已经反映在年初至今的回报里了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Do you guys think there’s only $5,650,000,000 dilution to go with $IREN? Very surprising that people haven’t switched to $NBIS or other names if you’re long Neoclouds. One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions. The other is likely actively selling new shares on the open market to get funding off retail shareholders. The sad reality is: $IREN simply cannot monetize the rest of their capacity without using that. It’s not “optionality”. Financial structure nuance matters when you’re choosing winners for equity appreciation. Nebius is clearly has the better financing structure and this is already showing up in YTD returns.
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全球供应链高度互联，战争将摧毁从AI到消费电子的产业链，受益者仅是以色列和俄罗斯。
我仍然看多市场（目前85%多头，15%现金/对冲）。即使在战争时期，我预期从$AAOI到$LITE的许多股票仍能跑赢大盘。然而...如今世界高度互联。现任政府可能没有意识到上游供应链的严重性和脆弱性。他们可能看到$AAPL的"美国制造"。或者$TSLA的"美国制造"，但如果你看看特斯拉人形机器人的供应链来源：-> 在中国。执行器(Actuator)材料来自俄罗斯的原料。材料来自加拿大的合作伙伴。-> 对于星链(Starlink)，大量供应链来自台湾稳懋(Win Semi)到韩国的公司。对于OpenAI、私募股权、大型科技公司和其他公司的资金来源：-> 很大一部分来自阿联酋、中东和其他地方（随着油田被炸毁，他们可能需要撤出流动性）。持续数月的美国地面入侵造成的混乱是是非常看跌的。我最初预期的是"震撼与敬畏"，美国宣称胜利，战争冲击被买回。但我不会鼓励美国走向一场旷日持久的战争。这对亚洲伙伴（韩国、日本）或我们在欧洲的盟友都没有好处。战争的主要受益者是：#1：以色列 #2：俄罗斯世界其他地区，包括美国，都被战争拖累。看起来"油价/能源价格上涨对美国有利"：但它摧毁了从$NVDA到$AAPL的超大规模数据中心(Hyperscaler)所依赖的大量供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges). Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform. However... The World is largely interconnected now. The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains. They might look at $AAPL "Made in America". or $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids: -> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada. -> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea. For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from: -> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up. Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish. I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back. But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War. This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either. The main beneficiaries of War are: #1: Israel #2: Russia The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War. It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US": But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.
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Mirae分析师梳理CPO产业格局，作者认为遗漏上游公司但框架有参考价值
CPO产业格局 Mirae分析师笔记： 横向扩展： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、Innolight DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 纵向扩展： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互联：研发阶段？ CPO测试：「新玩家不断进入」 微透镜/光学系统：「新玩家不断进入」 总结：纵向扩展的CPO即将到来。认为分析师笔记遗漏了一些上游公司名字，并将ELS与光源混为一谈。 但作为高层视角，能看到他们认为的领先玩家还是有参考价值的。
原推 ↗英文原文
CPO Landscape Mirae Analyst Note: Scale-Across: CPO ASIC: $AVGO, $MRVL Optical Transceiver: $COHR, $LITE, Innolight DSP/PAM4: $AVGO, $MRVL Coherent DCI: $CIEN, $NOK OCS Equipment: iPronics, Polatis Optical Cable / Fiber: $GLW, Prysmian, Furukawa HCF: $LITE, OFS DCI Coherent: Ciena, Nokia, Huawei Optical Amplifier: $LITE, $COHR OCS Gateway: KDDI Scale-Up: SiPh Foundry: imec, $GFS, $TSM SiPh Modulator: $NVDA (in-house MRM), $INTC ELS: NTT, Furukawa, $LITE, $COHR THz Interconnect: R&D Stage? CPO Test: "Expanding entry of new players" Micro Lens / Optical Systems: "Expanding entry of new players" TLDR: Scale Up CPO is coming next. Think the analyst note missed a bunch of upstream names and conflated ELS with light source. But it's helpful to see who they think the leading players are as a very high-level view.
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警告$IREN的60亿美元ATM大规模稀释将清算散户股权，历史先例已证明结局惨烈
$IREN 提交了文件，计划以 117 亿美元市值稀释 60 亿美元。 这不是噪音。 这是 Iren 通过向公开市场发售所有新股来变现 4.5GW 容量的方式。 如果你想了解这类操作的历史结果： 看看 $BKKT 在 Mike 手下暴跌 99% 的先例，以及 $IREN 董事会过去大规模 ATM（按市价发行）的历史。或者他最近的公司 $ASST。 这对公司和高管是增值的：因为这清算了所有散户股东，而他们总可以发行 SBC（股权激励）。 所以他们实际上并不在乎股价需要达到什么水平才能发售。 完成之后，他们将拥有 60 亿美元新现金用于扩张，而无需支付利息。 但可转换票据附带利息、以及 $NVDA 资助资产负债表的模式对散户资金好得多的原因是： 因为它不需要清算散户股权就能实现这一点。因为目前看来 $IREN 像是数据中心版的 $AMC，拥有不断缩小的护城河，以及即将有 60 亿美元新股涌入公开市场。 我发帖讨论 $IREN 的原因是： - 人们将 60 亿美元 ATM 视为"噪音"而不予理会 - 它是最受散户欢迎的"抄底"标的之一，而这些散户正在买入一个 60 亿美元稀释机器 - 人们仍然完全不了解其中的风险 - 他们目前的资金量不足以支撑 GPU/GW 容量的货币化 - 他们很可能必须使用 ATM，这不是"选择性" 再次声明：我在这家公司零仓位。 我只是警告散户投资者，这个 ATM 的结构性机制如何通过 60 亿美元以上的 ATM 运作来从结构上抹杀你的股权增值。 因为 $IREN 可能需要在任何价格出售新股来变现他们的 GW，否则就没有必要提交这个文件。 高管们实际上不需要担心，因为他们可以通过发行 SBC 来弥补股价下跌，就像 $SNAP 一样。 如果你还在疑惑你的股权是否会被大规模 ATM 清算： 还有更好的做多选择，比 $IREN 更值得。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC. That is not noise. This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market. If you want some history on how this turns out: Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST. It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC. So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell. After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest. But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital: Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market. Reason I post about $IREN is because - people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise” - it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine - people still don’t understand the risk at all. - the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization. - they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality” Again: I have zero positions in the company. I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work. Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it. Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP. If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM: There are better longs out there than $IREN.
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分析光学组件为AI集群关键瓶颈，Sivers垂直整合价值凸显
因为我预期一些公司，尤其是光子学个股会显著跑赢大盘。Sivers还拥有关键的激光技术，$MRVL和其他公司会想要收购来实现垂直整合……如果股价进一步下跌，任何人都可以用零钱收购整家公司。当我说伊朗扰乱全球流动性和能源时，这并不意味着在最坏情况下$NVDA会跌到零。也许一些超级计算用户会保守地削减资本支出，一些数据中心建设会放缓。但如果光学组件是扩展AI集群的必要部件，那么它们已经售罄，而且在BOM中占比很小因为它们很便宜。削减支出根本无法改变这个瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Bc I expect some companies, especially individual photonics names strongly outperform. Sivers also hold the critical laser tech that $MRVL and others would want to buy for vertical integration… and if it dropped any further, someone can just acquire the entire company for spare change. When I say Iran disrupting global liquidity/energy, that doesn’t mean $NVDA drops to 0 in a worse case scenario. Maybe some hyperscalers cut back on capex spend to be conservative, some DC buildout stalls. If optical components are necessary to scale AI clusters. Then they’re sold out and such a little part of BOM since they’re cheap. Cutting back on spend won’t change that bottleneck at all
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开玩笑说可以把自己做的末日 ETF 当成对 NVDA 和 LCID 的对冲。
也许是时候开始看看我做的那个末日 ETF 了，把它当作对 $NVDA 和 $LCID 的对冲？ 最新消息：“五角大楼正准备在伊朗开展数周地面行动” 现在还没最终确认……但看起来已经越来越像真的了。 https://t.co/Jse9HERHyj
原推 ↗英文原文
Maybe it’s time to start looking into the Doomsday ETF I made, as a hedge with $NVDA and $LCID? Just in: “The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran” It’s not confirmed yet… but seems likely now. https://t.co/Jse9HERHyj
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提出让 SIVE 沿光子链条扩张 TAM、借资本注入和拆分推进 ELS 模块规模化。
难道 $SIVE 就不能学 $LITE 那样，把 TAM 往 ELS 整个堆栈一路往下扩吗？ 我已经开始想起早期的 $LITE 了（Oclaro、NeoPhotonics、Cloud Light）…… 下面是我的论点/设想： Sivers 如何把大约 300-400 美元的 ELS（来自 50-100 美元的阵列）吃下来，并成长为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 路径大概是： -> Sivers 需要融资。 -> 拿 NRE 预付款或者 PIPE（比如 $AXTI/Northland） -> 直接告诉市场：“$AVGO 和 $LITE 会把你们定制 AI 集群的利润率卡住。” ----> 让 $META / $AMZN / $MSFT 投资注资，来支持未来 ASIC 集群的多来源供应，因为他们会害怕。 尤其是 $NVDA 已经出资 40 亿美元来保障从 $LITE 和 $COHR 的供应……再加上当前 EML 产能瓶颈带来的 PTSD。 其实比大家想的容易。 -> 把光子学业务分拆到美国（市场不喜欢给老牌公司投资）。 - - - - - > 这件事大概率会在 2026 年奏效，因为 CPO / photonics 现在是热潮，而不再是 2024 年到 2025 年初那样。 -> 筹到足够的钱后，自动化晶圆探针机，并给模块 NPI 提供资金。 -> 采用轻资本 fab-lite 测试模型：自建探针卡并内部测试，但把 capex 交给 OSAT。 -> 收购硅光封装 IP（或者继续和 O-Net、$POET 做 JDM）。 -> 保留 Glasgow 的 InP 晶圆厂，用于内部测试、迭代和原始外延。 -> 把光刻、刻蚀等环节外包给 Win Semi 和其他厂商（别自己做重资本环节）。 -> 然后 $SIVE 只要把经过测试的激光器和封装 IP 交给 $FN。 然后就成了。 你拥有了一个独立、可大规模生产、高毛利的 ELS 模块，而 ELSFP 也会成为标准。 之后他们还能做别的事，比如购买 DSP 设计并开始整合技术栈。 不再是每个 10 美元的激光芯片乘 6，做成 50 到 100 美元的激光阵列，而是变成 400 美元的可热插拔模块。 基本上，他们的起点是掌握光子学里激光层面的一个瓶颈护城河…… 然后他们就能像 $LITE 当年那样，往下游做 EML 和光模块。 TLDR： Sivers（$SIVE）在世界正向 CPO 转型的这个时点，持有一个稀缺、独立的 InP 激光瓶颈点。 全球只有少数几家独立公司能做这件事，比如 $SIVE（例如住友、$LITE、$COHR）。 但当然，他们需要资金、需要正确的愿景，才能实现 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Can't $SIVE just pull a $LITE and TAM expansion down the ELS stack? I'm getting early stage $LITE flashbacks (Oclaro, NeoPhotonics, Cloud Light)... Here's my thesis/idea: on how Sivers can capture the ~$300-$400 ELS (from $50-100 arrays) and become a $10B+ company. How this plays out: -> Sivers is needs funding. -> Get NRE prepay or PIPE (eg. $AXTI/Northland) -> Say "Hey, $AVGO and $LITE are going to choke your custom AI cluster margins". ----> get $META / $AMZN / $MSFT capital injection for multi-source supply for next ASIC clusters cause they're scared. Esp. with $NVDA funding $4B to securing supply from $LITE and $COHR... then PTSD from the current EML capacity bottleneck. It's easier than people think. -> US spinoff of photonics arm (markets don't like investing in legacy companies). - - - - - > This will likely work in 2026, bc CPO/photonics is hot, now and not like 2024-early 2025. -> Raise enough to automate wafer probers and fund the module NPI. -> Fab-lite test model: develop probe cards and test inhouse, but push capex to OSATs. -> Buy SiPh packaging IP (or just continue JDM with O-Net and $POET) -> Keep their Glasgow InP fab for in-house testing for iteration/raw epitaxial. -> Outsource lithography, etching, etc. stuff to Win Semi + others (don't do capex heavy things yourself) -> Then just $SIVE can just hand tested lasers and packaging IP to $FN And Poof. You have a independent, mass producible, high margin, ELS module as ELSFP becomes standard. Then they can do other stuff like buying DSP designs and start consolidating the tech stack. Instead of cheap $10 laser dies x 6 for a $50-$100 laser array, you have $400 hot swappable modules. Basically their starting point is owning one of the chokepoints moat in photonics on the laser level... Then they can go downstream like what $LITE did with EML and optical transceivers. TLDR: Sivers ( $SIVE ) holds a rare, independent chokepoint in InP lasers at the exact moment the world is transitioning to CPO. There's only a few independent companies in the world that can do this like $SIVE (eg. Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR). But of course they need the funding to achieve TAM expansion and the right vision.
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支持 Aschenbrenner 的很多长仓，但对 CRWV 和 IREN 单独看空，原因在于融资和稀释。
当然，我很尊重 Aschenbrenner，他大多数多头，比如 $BE 和 $LITE，都非常优秀。我最近也很少再看到像 Situational Awareness 这样水平的基金。 但话说回来：我非常不同意单独看多 $CRWV 和 $IREN。 如果我站在反方来看： $IREN 有很多原始产能。去年我看多，是因为大家都以为他们可以通过轻资产 colo 把它货币化。 但他们选择了高度稀释的 ATM 和 GPU 路线来变现。我仍然认为他们也可以做 colo，而且不需要碰 ATM；只是我觉得这种可能性很低。 $CRWV、$NVDA 和美国政府也许会继续给它托底，降低下行风险和传染性。 他们的软件编排做得很漂亮……
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, I have a lot of respect for the Aschenbrenner, vast majority of his longs like $BE and $LITE are stellar. I haven't really seen a fund like Situational Awareness in awhile. That being said: strongly disagree with $CRWV and $IREN individually. If I'm playing devils advocate: $IREN has a lot of raw capacity. Last year I was long since everyone thought they could monetize that through asset-lite colo. But they chose heavily dilutive ATMs and GPUs to monetize that. They still can do colo and not tap into the ATM. I just thought that's very unlikely. $CRWV, $NVDA and US Gov might just keep it backstopped and lower downside risk/contagion. They've nailed software orchestration for high margins and have real backlog/revenue. Then they can always figure out a way to refinance. Macro in general just doesn't favor capex heavy companies right now.
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对比三只Neocloud股票，认为$NBIS是最佳选择，$CRWV融资结构致命，$IREN长期增值但短期散户不利
我对$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV以及当前Neocloud市场的看法。 其中一家将在5年内成为下一个AWS： 我的猜测是Nebius。 这不是赢家通吃（DigitalOcean与亚马逊并存），但显然有更优越的结构和可能的赢家。 不利因素： ->伊朗冲突导致降息的可能性很低。 ->更广泛的市场似乎不愿意资助CapEx周期。但又想从中获益。 关于$IREN： 我们理解，4.5GW = X收入。但谁来资助GPU？ 无论谁现在买入$6,000,000,000的ATM。 赢家将是稀释完成后进入的任何人。 现实是，如果没有colo模式，他们没有足够的资金来通过GPU货币化其容量。 而且他们没有找到其他融资方式，因此由于一个会买入他们出售的任何东西的邪教社区，他们选择了ATM。 然而，我同意长期来看这是增值的。只是对现在买入的散户没那么有利。 关于$CRWV： 他们做对了一切... $NVDA支持。超大规模客户... 但他们融资完全错了。现在，超过$1.5B+的年度债务利息正在吞噬Coreweave的利润并侵蚀FCF。 就像信用卡债务一样，Coreweave找到工作来偿还债务，但最终债务利息太高，工作收入不足以覆盖债务和扩张。 如果有任何公司倒闭，$CRWV是第一个因巨额债务和利息而倒下的。 关于$NBIS： 他们正在尽可能做好... $NVDA提供$2B资助capex。 可转债发行（可转债做空对冲对短期价格上涨不利）。 但这是比Coreweave更好的融资结构，利息低得多。 他们现在有来自$META和$MSFT的约$460亿+订单积压，这两家是最盈利的超大规模云服务商之一，且没有像Coreweave那样直接关联OpenAI的风险传染。 与其他公司不同的是；他们的其他公司也有增值（Clickhouse股权增值：avride机器人出租车规模化；toloka三位数增长）。 从我来看：Nebius是明显的赢家。 然而，当前宏观环境不利于整个板块的短期持有者，指数下跌7%。 尤其是如果他们在ATM活跃时买入的话。 长期来看，当他们规模化后获益时（例如$NBIS 2026年Q4，是的，甚至$IREN），收益将是巨大的。
原推 ↗英文原文
My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.
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认为 NVDA 在流动性和能源危机中仍可能大幅下跌。
@Jornka329996 @thgstar2 英伟达现在还是 4.1 万亿美元市值，而且正处在严重的流动性紧缩和能源危机里；如果伊朗把周围的一切都炸掉，它还可能跌得远得多。 我仍然觉得美国在找退路 / TACO，但以色列似乎想把事情继续推下去。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 @thgstar2 Nvidia is still $4.1T, in a massive liquidity crunch and energy crisis, it can fall a lot, lot further if Iran blows everything around it up. Still think US is looking for an off ramp/TACO but Israel is looking to keep things going.
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提出地缘冲突极端情景下的末日ETF配置组合及各自逻辑。
Serenity末日ETF： 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20% | $LCID 做空 10% | $SQQQ 10% | $UVIX 10% | $NVDA 看跌期权 逻辑： $FAZ / 3倍做空金融股 - 私人市场流动性(Private Market liquidity)押注，中东资本如果所有油田被炸毁将撤离私人市场。 $GUSH / 2倍做多美国油气 - 全球原油价格可能飙升，美国生产商赚取创纪录利润。 $SQQQ / 3倍做空纳斯达克 - 谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、微软被迫抛售，如果流动性被抽走的话。 $LCID 做空 / 沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金(Public Investment Fund)持有60%股份。如果沙特遭受流动性冲击(Private Market liquidity shock)，Lucid也就完了。 $UVIX / 2倍做多波动率 - 如果发生黑天鹅事件，波动率就会上升。 $NVDA 看跌期权 - 作为$SPY最大权重股最后的防线。如果资本支出被削减，指数下跌时英伟达会跌得最惨。 只有在美国向伊朗派遣地面部队且伊朗炸毁周边一切的情况下，我才会看到这种情景。 让我们祈祷发生的是塔可星期二吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Serenity Doomsday ETF: 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20%| $LCID Short 10% | $SQQQ 10% $UVIX 10% | $NVDA Puts Rationale: $FAZ / 3x short financial - Private Market liquidity play on Middle Eastern capital abandoning private markets if all their oil fields get blown apart. $GUSH / 2x Long US OIl and Gas - Global crude prices that will likely skyrocket, and American producers reap record windfall in profits. $SQQQ / 3x short Nasdaq - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft forced selling if liquidity gets pulled. $LCID Short / 60% owned by Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. If the Saudis suffer from liquidity shock, there goes Lucid. $UVIX/ 2x long volatility - If there's black swan events, volatility goes up. $NVDA Puts - Last bastion for the $SPY as largest weighting. If capex gets pulled, index sells off will Nvidia go down the hardest. I only see this scenario if US sends ground troops to Iran and Iran blows everything around it up. Let's pray for Taco Tuesday.
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认为资源错配、伊朗局势和供应链混乱会让能源与军工受益。
结果发现……我们其实什么牌都没有。 -> $SPY 指数跌了 5% -> $HOOD 和 $RDDT 这些个股跌得更惨，超过 40% -> 机器人或 AI 所需的稀土供应链乱成一团 -> 我们正在和供应重要材料的盟友加拿大和欧洲闹别扭（提示：美国对很多这些材料根本没有国内精炼能力） -> 伊朗局势现在一团糟 -> 最大受益者是石油公司和战争承包商 -> 俄罗斯因为石油制裁被解除而高兴 -> 超大规模云厂商把全部储备都砸进 AI CapEx，而中国则从蒸馏技术里拿走了所有好处（没有 KYC 终端） -> 财富差距继续扩大，大家都在 paycheck to paycheck 地活着，而且随着 AI 冲击就业，大规模裁员很可能会发生 然后作为副线任务，家里的一些人靠 memecoin 发币赚钱，再把整个行业卖给大银行。 在我们可能开始对伊朗进行地面入侵之前，能不能先把供应链和前沿技术保住？ 我永远会看多美国，但这是我见过最蠢的一连串决策之一。 到底在发生什么？
原推 ↗英文原文
Turns out… we had no cards after all. -> Indexes from $SPY are down -5% -> Individual stocks from $HOOD and $RDDT are down worse 40%+ -> Rare earths supply chains needed for robotics or AI are a mess. -> We’re fighting with our allies from Canada and Europe that supply us with all the important materials for frontier supply chains (hint: America has no domestic refineries for many of these) -> Iran situation is now a mess -> Main beneficiaries are Oil companies and War contractors -> Russia is happy from Oil sanctions being lifted -> Hyperscalers are pouring all their reserves into AI capex, with China reaping all the benefits from distillation. (No KYC endpoints) -> Wealth gap keeps increasing, people living paycheck to paychecks, and mass layoffs are likely to happen as AI disrupts jobs. Then as a side quest, people in the family are enriching themselves through memecoin launches then selling the industry out to big banks. Can we at least secure our supply chains and frontier technologies first before we likely start a ground invasion of Iran? I’ll always be bullish on America but these are some of these dumbest series of decisions I’ve seen. WTF is even happening?
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看多稳懋3105：位于LEO卫星/光学/人形机器人三大高增长领域垄断瓶颈点，战略价值被市场低估。
我在稳懋（Win Semi）(3105.TWO) 4.1B市值时做多。我认为市场忽略了这家全球最重要的晶圆厂之一（在台积电$TSM之外）。我认为他们的战略定位远超40亿美元市值。他们几乎位于所有主要瓶颈点：-> SpaceX Starlink 低轨卫星供应链。-> 作为$AVGO、$LITE、$MTSI、$SIVE的磷化铟(InP)光学收发器晶圆厂。-> 作为人形机器人的身体/眼睛，是用于飞行时间(TOF)激光器的砷化镓(GaAs)晶圆厂，可能用于Boston Dynamic Atlas。-> 来自之前与联发科(MediaTek)/高通(Qualcomm)/$AAPL的业务遗留。但稳懋似乎受到legacy业务的拖累（如$SOI），光学是其最大增长向量之一。然后...稳懋拥有几乎任何晶圆厂中最大的TAM扩张/收入加速：随着：LEO、人形机器人/连续波(CW)激光、800g、1.6t、3.2t光学收发器在未来几年大幅增长。特别是博通(Broadcom)作为其锚定客户（$AVGO持有约5%的稳懋股份）。$NVDA不在乎谁制造激光器，无论是$LITE还是$COHR。他们只在乎是否有足够的供应。供应不够。-> CW激光需求可能呈抛物线增长。（他们制造像$SIVE设计的激光器）-> LEO卫星需求（SpaceX Starlink）可能呈抛物线增长。-> 人形机器人需求可能呈抛物线增长。因为稳懋位于三个最前沿和增长最快行业的半垄断瓶颈点：光子学/AI、机器人/人形机器人和太空。特别是光学TAM爆发：稳懋2027年远期收益大约在35倍范围，我认为这是保守估计，远期估值最终会非常便宜。稳懋将大大受益于TAM扩张和加速的收入增长。当然：稳懋会赢。所以我做多稳懋。
原推 ↗英文原文
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
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解释 SIVE 大涨的真正催化来自会议确认和光源瓶颈，而不是一条 X 帖子。
所以有深度投资者（像你们），也有交易员（像我）。 投资者往往忽略的是，究竟是什么让像 $SIVE 这样的股票上涨。 对我来说，我把时间点卡在 $NVDA GTC 和 OFC 大会附近，因为 Nvidia 推进 CPO 架构大概率会有新消息。 这波抛物线式上涨的原因是： -> $SIVE 被确认是 O-Net 的光源。 -> $SIVE 又在 OFC 上被确认是 Jabil 的光源。 这些才是我那篇 thesis 发出后最大的催化。 它本来就已经很不对称了，因为还有 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial，以及 Ayar 这一层。 而 Jabil 的可插拔公告正好又和我做多的时间点重合，只是锦上添花。 这不是“发一条 X 帖子，股票就涨 300%”那么简单，事情没那么运作。
原推 ↗英文原文
So there's deep investors (like you), then there's traders (like myself). What investors miss is what causes a stock like $SIVE to go up. For me, I timed it around $NVDA GTC + OFC conference, since there's likely new news around Nvidia pushing CPO architectures. The reason for the parabolic rise is: -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to O-Net. -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to Jabil at OFC. These were the biggest catalysts after my thesis post was announced. It was already asymmetrical due to $POET -> $MRVL Celestial as well as Ayar. But the Jabil plugabble announcement timed with me going long is a cherry on top. It's not just an "X post, stock goes up 300%", doesn't work like that.
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说超大规模 ASIC 正在吞掉推理市场，如果只剩训练会有麻烦。
@yuntungshieh 超大规模云厂的 ASIC 正在把推理市场吃掉。 如果你被稀释得只剩训练业务，那可能就麻烦了。 另外我还有别的想法，但不想公开发出来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yuntungshieh Hyperscaler ASICs eating up inference market. If you’re diluted down to just training could be trouble. Also there’s something else but don’t want to post it publicly
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正式宣布在 139 美元做多 ARM，因其向推理端迁移与 AI CPU 前景。
顺便说一下：我在 $139 做多了 $ARM。 当市场越来越从训练转向推理时，$ARM 以 1430 亿美元市值来看，真的是一笔有说服力的多头。 然后 $ARM 的 AI CPU 会蚕食推理市场以及 $NVDA 的份额。 尤其是在 LLM 变得更轻量化的情况下。 把它们拉到 250 亿美元营收（5 倍收入）的预测已经夸张到足以证明风险收益比很高了。
原推 ↗英文原文
FYI: I went long on $ARM at $139. Genuinely a compelling long at $143B MC as markets shift more from training -> inference. Then $ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share. Especially as LLMs get more lightweight. The projections to $25B/revenue (5x revenue) are already insane to justify risk-reward.
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$SIVE是极少数纯光激光瓶颈投资标的，估值仅4亿美元却已切入超大规模云服务商供应链。
$SIVE简直是世界上少数几个纯正的公共投资渠道，直接暴露在（CW/EML）光学激光瓶颈中。 $LITE - 550亿美元+ $COHR - 530亿美元+ $MTSI - 178亿美元+ $AAOI - 88亿美元 $SIVE - 4亿美元 你几乎从来没见过这种情况... 真的震惊于有一家像Sivers这样的小型公司存在。它已经通过Jabil、Marvell Celestial、O-Net、Ayar等公司成为超大规模云服务商的合格供应商。 这是我见过的市场上最大的结构性缺口之一。 我预计市场会像$AXTI一样每天重新定价这件事，随着越来越多的机构开始意识到这一点。 （引用内容）： $SIVE一定是我在这个市场里见过的除了$AXTI之外上涨空间最大的股票？ 市场不可能错过Jabil、Marvell（通过$POET的Celestial）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有$NVDA和联发科支持）所用的CW激光光源... 估值只有1.4亿美元（现在是3.5亿美元）。 不仅能获得最直接的激光敞口，用于未来的CPO规模化？ 还有这个周期的1.6T可插拔模块，与$JBL（前英特尔硅光子部门）即将推出的产品合作。 稳懋(Win Semi)需要为超大规模云服务商供应链扩大桥接产能。 99.9%的人还没意识到这件事的规模之大。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is literally one of the only pure play public exposure to the (CW/EML) optical laser bottlenecks in the world. $LITE - $55B+ $COHR - $53B+ $MTSI - $17.8B+ $AAOI - $8.8B $SIVE- $400M You basically almost never see this... Genuinely shocked there's a small cap company out there like Sivers... That already is a qualified supplier to hyperscaler supply chains through Jabil, Marvel Celestial, O-Net, Ayar and others. This is one of the largest structural gaps in the market I've seen. I expect the market to keep repricing this every day like $AXTI as more institutions begin to realize this.
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$SIVE 估值洼地，兼具CPO激光和1.6T可插拔光模块双重赛道，上涨空间极大
$SIVE 一定是我在这个市场里见过的相对于 $AXTI 而言上涨空间最大的股票了吧？市场不可能错过 CW 激光光源这条赛道——客户包括 Jabil、Marvell（通过 $POET 的 Celestial 项目）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有 $NVDA 和联发科支持）……而估值才 1.4 亿美元（现在是 3.5 亿了）。你不仅能获得对未来共封装光学(CPO)规模扩张最直接的激光业务敞口，还能获得本轮周期 1.6T 可插拔光模块业务敞口——$JBL（前身为英特尔硅光子业务部门）的产品即将推出。此外，稳懋半导体(Win Semi)的代工产能扩张对于超大规模云厂商的供应链也至关重要。我认为 99.9% 的人还没有意识到这件事的规模有多大。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE has gotta be the highest upside stock I’ve seen in this market since $AXTI? No way markets missed the CW laser light source for Jabil, Marvell (Celestial via $POET), O-Net, Ayar ( $NVDA, Mediatek backed)… At a $140M valuation. ($350m now) Not only do you get the most direct laser exposure to future CPO scale up? But also this cycle’s 1.6T pluggables with $JBL (formerly Intel Silicon Photonics division) coming soon. With Win Semi bridge capacity scaling needed for hyperscaler supply chains. Don’t think 99.9% of people realized the sheer scale of this yet.
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认为像 NVIDIA 生态中，直接 GPU/激光供应商往往比更下游公司更受益。
@QuantumDom 这有点像 $NVDA，整个生态链都在，但有时候受益最大的反而是直接的 GPU 或激光供应商，比如 $SIVE 或 $LITE。 而不是 $POET、$FN 这类公司。 当然也有一些高毛利的例外，比如 Eoptolink。
原推 ↗英文原文
@QuantumDom It’s like $NVDA, there’s a whole ecosystem but sometimes the largest beneficiary is the direct GPU or Laser supplier like $SIVE or $LITE. Instead of the $POET, $FN type companies. There’s some high margin exceptions like Eoptolink
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认为看基本面和市值比看涨了多高更重要，否则会错过下一个 NVDA。
@AdityaInvests90 大家应该看基本面和市值，而不是看图已经涨了多高。 不然你就会错过下一个 $NVDA。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 People should look at fundamentals and marketcap over how high the chart went. Otherwise you'll miss the next $NVDA.
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认为比起 IREN，还有更好的同赛道选择，NBIS 融资更好、AAOI 资本开支更轻。
比 $IREN 更好的机会其实很多。 如果你想留在同一个赛道，$NBIS 显然更好，因为它的 CapEx 融资方式更优（$NVDA 提供了 20 亿美元资金）…… 另外还有像 $AAOI 这种公司，它用更少的 CapEx 就能在营收和利润上超过 $IREN。 但如果你还是想持有 $IREN，也许更好的做法是等大家都被稀释完、为扩建买单之后再重新进场，去收获后面的果实。
原推 ↗英文原文
Much better opportunities out than $IREN. If you want the same sector, $NBIS is objectively better when you look at how they finance capex ( $NVDA $2B funding )… Then there’s others like $AAOI that leapfrogs $IREN revenue + profit, with less capex. But if you still want to hold $IREN, probably better to re-enter after everyone gets diluted to fund their buildout and reap the rewards after.
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$SMCI监管风险或致买入机会，剥离噪音后估值约10-11倍PE。
所有人都在关注$SMCI向中国走私价值数十亿美元AI芯片的事。 但没有人回答这个问题： 我如何从中赚钱，这是否是买入机会？ 我的答案是： 如果$SMCI跌破约$24很多，甚至更低。在约$140亿市值时就像是买入机会。 所有人看美国司法部(DOJ)的案子都觉得超微电脑完蛋了。 但有两点： 1. 到目前为止公司本身似乎被隔离了（未被列为被告） 2. $SMCI向中国国有机构销售芯片早已是公开的（只是程度没达到$25亿以上），通过2024年浑水做空报告(Hindenburg short seller reports)。 所以中国收入的这部分有相当一部分已经被定价了，这就是为什么$SMCI从$100以上暴跌到现在交易价$24。 现在如果我们剥离表象和一些实质收入： -> $SMCI GAAP净收入去年为$10.5亿，2026财年估计约为$12.5亿，部分估计高达$15亿。 然后我们剔除约$1.5亿走私利润从财务报表中：$10.5亿 -> ~$9亿？ 按市盈率(P/E)计算，作为成长型公司仍然相对便宜，大约10-11倍？ 现在看跌的风险： -> 舆论形象仍然很糟糕。你可以往垃圾堆里再加垃圾。 但反正还是垃圾，没什么大变化？ -> $NVDA疏远$SMCI？（他们2024年已经这么做了）。 -> $SMCI未被列为被告，但如果美国证券交易委员会(SEC)/美国司法部(DOJ)起诉他们，那么会有大量监管费用和可能的罚款。 -> 也许会有订单取消，但如果2024年面临问题时他们没有取消订单，现在应该也没问题？ 现在...有没有比承担这个监管风险更好的机会？ 100%有。 恐慌时会有更多下行空间吗？ 是的。 但如果剥离噪音，$SMCI作为一家公司在约$140亿市值、按10-11倍远期盈利计算看起来很便宜。
原推 ↗英文原文
Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China. But nobody is answering the question: How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity? My answer: If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC. Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked. But two things: 1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant) 2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024. So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24. Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue: -> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B. And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M? On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x? Now the downside: -> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash. But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much? -> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024). -> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines. -> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now? Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith? 100%. Is there potential more downside from panicking? Yes. But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.
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建议把仓位投向即将到来的硅光 / CPO 方向，并在高信念和分散之间做平衡。
@moderndayvenom 我会把资金投向硅光 / CPO，因为我们知道这会从 OFC 和 $NVDA GTC 继续推进。 像 $TSEM、$SIVE、$SOI 这种名字，是我最喜欢、信念最高的三个。 然后我会稍微分散一点，今天价格下的 $RDDT 也可以作为多头，另外当前收发器周期里的 $AAOI 也不错。
原推 ↗英文原文
@moderndayvenom I’d send it into silicon photonics/CPO since we know it’s coming from OFC and $NVDA GTC. Names like $TSEM, $SIVE, $SOI were my favorite three higher conviction ones. Then I’d diversify a bit, maybe $RDDT as a long as of today’s prices. And $AAOI for current transceiver cycles.
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感叹自己对 AXT 的判断再次兑现，股价创出新高。
天啊，我对 $AXTI 的 thesis 也太传奇了吧？ AXT 今天又涨了 20%，到 58 美元创出新高。 很高兴自己判断对了，短时间内的收益甚至把多年持有 $NVDA 的回报都比下去了。 https://t.co/xEJJDtgFaP
原推 ↗英文原文
Holy ****, my $AXTI thesis was legendary? AXT is up another 20% today to ATHs at $58. Happy I got this right, gains in a short time blew away holding $NVDA over the years. https://t.co/xEJ7DtgFaP
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纠正之前提到的会议名称，指出OFC不是GTC
@Seafox92 是的！只是一个纠正：OFC 会议不是 $NVDA GTC*
原推 ↗英文原文
@Seafox92 Yep! Just a correction was OFC conference not $NVDA GTC*
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纠正此前观点，称回调针对OFC而非英伟达GTC
是的，只是一个回调，是OFC*不是$NVDA GTC
原推 ↗英文原文
@Roenick1010 Yep, just a correction, was OFC* not $NVDA GTC
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解释自己很早知道 SIVE，但因为觉得硅光周期还早而没买，直到 GTC 出现催化。
我之前就知道这家公司一段时间了，因为 Reddit 上一直有人狂吹 $POET，而那也是他们最喜欢的股票。 Sivers 也时不时被提到。 只是我一直觉得硅光 / CPO 还有很长时间才会真正落地，所以从没真正做多。 但 $NVDA GTC 成了它需要的催化剂，尤其是在……
原推 ↗英文原文
Was aware of it for awhile from all the $POET shilling back on Reddit as it's their #1 favorite stock over there. And Sivers got name dropped from time to time. Just felt like silicon photonics/CPO was quite a ways away so never went long. But $NVDA GTC was the catalyst it needed, especially with the new Jabil announcement. So ended up going long.
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Sivers成为Jabil 1.6T光收发器激光光源供应商，是其在CPO/硅光子供应链中的重大突破。
Sivers <$SIVE/$SIVEF>为Jabil（270亿美元市值）<$JBL>的1.6T长距离光(LRO)收发器提供光源。 作为激光光源供应商。 这无疑是$SIVE（2.8亿美元市值）公司历史上——也是今天$NVDA GTC大会上——最大的新闻…… Jabil从$AMZN、$GOOGL和$META等终端用户那里带来约300亿美元以上的收入。 以及$NVDA、Arista、$AVGO和Cisco等OEM厂商。 尤其是在收购$INTC的硅光子(SiPh)光收发器业务后，他们在该领域已是一级供应商(Tier 1)。 Sivers为Jabil提供连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB laser)光源，应用于硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(CPO)及超大规模云服务商供应链： 对于一家市值仅2.8亿美元的公司来说，这是难以置信的，而且他们是光子学领域我见过的最不知名却最具潜力的公司。 $NVDA GTC的消息只是进一步巩固了这一投资论点。 我认为他们真的有机会成为下一个$LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > powering Jabil ($27B MC) < $JBL > 1.6T LRO transcivers. As the laser light source. Is by far the biggest news from $NVDA GTC for Sivers ($280M MC) today... in history. Jabil brings in about $30B+ revenue from end users like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META. As well as OEMs like $NVDA, Arista, $AVGO, and Cisco. Especially after acquiring $INTC SiPH optical transceiver business, they're Tier 1 in the space. Sivers powering Jabil as the CW DFB laser source for Silicon Photonics and CPO and hyperscaler supply chains: At a $280M MC is incredible, and they're one of the most unknown yet highest potential company I've seen in the photonics sector so far. And the news from $NVDA GTC just cemented this thesis further. I think they genuinely have a shot at becoming the next $LITE.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机
都是很好的问题！我的看法： - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来，CPO（共封装光学）今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现，就像我在供应链映射中提到的，大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家（从$AXTI就能看出这一点）。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众，关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资，所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款（10.85%）和500万美元定期贷款（12%），对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面：赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来，这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model（如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia）模式风险更低，基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商，无论怎样都能赢，但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是，时机足够早，可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器，所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。
原推 ↗英文原文
All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.
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认为铜在未来两年更多只是过渡工具，光学和 CPO 才是方向。
@ram_blings 我并不看多铜。它在未来两年里，最多只是个过渡工具。 尽管 $NVDA 的 CEO 说他们会需要更多铜、光学和 CPO。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ram_blings I’m not bullish on copper. They’re used arguablely more as transitional tool over the next two years. Even though $NVDA CEO said they’ll need more copper, optics, and CPO.
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认为光子超级周期已经到来，NVIDIA 正把 CPO / 硅光推到临界点，光正成为 AI 基建核心。
光子超级周期已经来了。 $NVDA 正在带头把下一次飞跃推向 CPO 和硅光。 而我们现在离拐点还很近，供应链里的瓶颈，比如 Soitec（$SOI）或者 Sivers（$SIVE），都已经开始显现。 “NVIDIA 对 Spectrum-X 交换机和 co-packaged optics 的更新，是一个重要时刻，说明硅光已经成为下一代 AI 基础设施的核心。” 尽管系统扩展长期依赖铜互连，但公司现在已经把光子放到了未来平台的核心，包括 Vera Rubin Ultra。 这种转变预计将支撑越来越复杂的配置，比如 NVL576，以及未来像 Kyber NVL1152 这样的架构。” “Nvidia 已经在量产 Spectrum-X Photonics，也就是 co-packaged optics（CPO）以太网交换机。 公司还宣布了 Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand 交换机，它通过自有的 scale-out 互连，每秒可提供高达 800 Tb 的带宽。” 虽然铜依然重要，但它已经无法单独承受 AI 规模需求。 NVLink8 CPO 大概是最大的信号，因为 $NVDA 也把硅光带进了它的 scale-up NVLink 互连，而不仅仅是 scale-out 网络。 scale-out 的 CPO 现在 / 2026 年已经在出货，NVLink scale-up 的 CPO 也很快会到来。 范式已经改变，AI 基础设施的瓶颈现在正正式由“光”来解决。 市场只差时间去发现这些供应链中的瓶颈，然后再把它们计价进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Photonics Supercycle is here. $NVDA is spearheading the next leap into CPO & Silicon Photonics. And we’re only near the inflection point with chokepoints in the supply chains like Soitec ( $SOI ) or Sivers ( $SIVE ). “NVIDIA’s update on the Spectrum-X switch with co-packaged optics is an important moment, confirming that silicon photonics is central to next-generation AI infrastructure.” Despite a long-standing reliance on copper-based interconnects for scale-up systems, the company is now placing photonics at the core of its future platforms, including Vera Rubin Ultra. This transition is expected to support increasingly complex configurations, such as NVL576 and future architectures like Kyber NVL1152.” “Nvidia is already in production with Spectrum-X Photonics, which is co-packaged optics (CPO) Ethernet switch. The company also announced the Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand switch, which delivers up to 800 Tb per second of scale-out throughput using its proprietary scale-out interconnect” Although copper is important, it can no longer alone can no longer handle AI-scale demands. NVLink8 CPO is probably the biggest signal with $NVDA also bringing silicon photonics into its scale-up NVLink interconnect, not just scale-out networking. CPO for scale-out is shipping now/2026, CPO for NVLink scale-up arrives soon. The paradigm has shifted, and the bottleneck of AI infrastructure is now officially being solved by light. It’s only a matter of time before markets find these chokepoints in the supply chains. Then price them in.
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说除 Jensen 对 OpenClaw 和安全问题的积极评论外，没有别的新消息。
@thgstar2 除了 Jensen 对 OpenClaw 和安全问题的极度正面评论之外，没有别的新消息。
原推 ↗英文原文
@thgstar2 No news aside from Jensen’s extremely positive comments around OpenClaw and security issues
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Sivers作为硅光子激光供应商多方布局，2亿估值极具吸引力。
我相信是的。 $SIVE看起来就像是早期的$LITE，在CPO/硅光子领域2.12亿美元的估值看起来太荒谬了。 他们现在通过Enablence -> O-Net成为亚洲CPO供应链的激光供应商，供应AI数据中心（有点像Innolight供应可插拔收发器的方式）。 通过$Poet -> $MRVL Celestial成为美国超大规模云厂商供应链的激光供应商。 还是$NVDA支持的Ayar的商用模式激光供应商。 风险回报比对我个人来说看起来非常有前景。
原推 ↗英文原文
I believe so. $SIVE looks like the early $LITE for CPO/Silicon photonics at a $212M valuation, which looks absurd. They're now the laser supplier for the Asian CPO supply chain via Enablence -> O-Net for AI DCs (kinda like Innolight for pluggable transcievers) Laser supplier for US hyperscaler supply chains via $Poet -> $MRVL Celestial Laser supplier to $NVDA backed Ayar for merchant models. Risk reward to me personally looks extremely promising.
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$SIVE牵手O-Net/Enablence布局CPO，标志硅光子CW DFB激光器供应链成型，替代EML瓶颈的新周期将至。
刚刚：$SIVE宣布与O-Net和Enablence达成CPO（共封装光学）重大合作。 Sivers将成为CPO的激光阵列供应商。 这实质上是论点验证，因为$SIVE成为InP CW DFB（连续波分布式反馈）激光器供应商，用于硅光子学。 简单来说，这就是当前光学瓶颈的$LITE -> $FN关系。 并且类似于现有的$POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO供应链，但位于亚洲。 Enablence生产"星形耦合器"，类似于$POET的插入器。 O-Net是一家大型组装商，将它们封装成成品模块。 香港的O-Net是华为、中兴通讯、Ciena、Nokia、 Fujitsu等公司的供应商。 （引用内容）： $SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 随着市场对未来潜在$LITE光子学公司的信息进行综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则针对即将到来的CPO/硅光子瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商确保EML（电吸收调制激光器）产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T收发器及上游产能，来自： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 这可能会触发需求量的突然全面范式转变。 $SIVE从InP CW DFB激光器中获益，用于SiPh（硅光子学）和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司，如$MRVL Celestial（购买$POET的插入器）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源实际上是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来，但我们知道它即将到来。 正如当前光学收发器周期所示： - $LITE和$COHR的光源公司获得的估值远高于专注于先进封装的$FN等公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但忽略了它们Starlight项目实际光源（类似$LITE类型）的来源。 风险存在，包括面临$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等多方竞争。所以再次强调，请务必自己做研究。 但我对此的反论点： Sivers足够早地根据$POET、Ayar和其他公司的规格定制激光器，在它们声名鹊起之前（类似于$POET到$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi（稳懋）认证的潜在赢面可以抵消这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 去年我做了$LITE的论点研究，并且仍然看好这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS（光学电路交换）。 但今年，我的重点是： $SIVE，作为我个人对新一轮光子学架构转变的CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对把握从当前EML周期轮动到即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子周期的个人观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: $SIVE announces major partnership with O-Net and Enablence for CPO. Sivers will be the laser array supplier for CPO. This is thesis validation in effect as $SIVE becomes InP CW DFB supplier for silicon photonics. In simpler terms, this is the $LITE -> $FN relationship for current optical bottlenecks. And mirrors the existing $POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO supply chain, but in Asia. Enablence makes the "Star Coupler", similar to $POET interposers. O-Net is a massive assembler, that packages them for the finished module. O-Net in HK is a supplier to companies like Huawei, ZTE, Ciena, Nokia, Fujitsu, and more.
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Sivers作为CW DFB激光器上游供应商，受益于向CPO/硅光子学的架构转换，与当前EML周期的Lumentum形成技术路线对比。
通常我不会回复喷子，但这个平台的虚伪确实令人印象深刻。 随机X平台散户： “为什么$Lite涨了1000%你之前不告诉我？” 我： “我在最早期就发布了这个可能的$Lite的论点，而且没有付费墙。” X平台散户： 😡，“我打算花$400付费墙来做多$ADBE并做空$PLTR”。 尤其是在我的$AXTI论点已经从$12涨到$50三个月后…… 我免费分享我所有的思考过程。 市场可以立即或以任何方式定价任何阿尔法。（我也会出错，尤其是像$ETOR这样从$65跌到$33的股票）。 然而，不是原来的模式——分析师以$2000+的价格向其他对冲基金出售论点，让他们慢慢建仓。 然后散户在$400亿+的估值买入，正如$Lite所呈现的那样。 我的账号之所以增长，是因为我是少数打破这种模式的分析师之一。我向所有人免费分发新颖的信息综合。 股票是正和游戏，如果论点方向正确，每个人都会受益。 （引用推文内容： $SIVE今天上涨+73.78%（市值$2.31亿）。 市场正在定价关于下一个潜在$Lite光子学的信息综合。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要从当前光学瓶颈中受益。 $SIVE的另一个激光源则是为即将到来的CPO/硅光子学瓶颈准备的。 Lumentum目前主要从$Nvidia和超大规模云服务商确保EML激光器产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在购买任何800G/1.6T收发器及以下上游产能： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 接下来是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转换需要大量高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能会引发容量需求的突然范式转变。 $SIVE受益于InP CW DFB激光器用于SiPh和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（采购$POET的中介层）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来。但我们知道它正在逼近。 正如当前光学收发器周期所见： - $LITE和$COHR的光源比专注先进封装的$FN等公司获得更高的估值。 市场一直关注$POET，但错过了它们获得类似$SIVE类型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括面临$Lite、$COHR、$AVGO等多源竞争。所以，再强调一次，请自己做研究。 但我反对这种观点的理由是： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求，在它们成名之前（有点像$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在容量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在优势抵消了这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做了$Lite的论点，至今仍喜欢这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为我个人的CW DFB激光器敞口，用于新的光子学架构转换。 我分享自己的想法，捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期的轮动。）
原推 ↗英文原文
Normally don’t respond to trolls, but the hypocrisy on this platform is pretty impressive. Random X retail: “Why didn’t you tell me about $LITE before it went up 1000% already?” Me: “Posts my thesis about the next possible $LITE at the very beginning, without paywalls.” X retail: 😡, “I’m going to pay $400 for a paywall to long $ADBE and short $PLTR instead”. Especially after my $AXTI thesis that already went from $12->$50 in 3 months... I distribute all my thought processes for free. And markets can price in any alpha immediately or however they want. (I get things wrong as well, especially with names like $ETOR that crashed from $65 to $33). However, instead of the original model where analysts sell a thesis for $2000+ to other hedge funds to slowly accumulate. Then retail buys at $40 billion+ as seen with $LITE. My account’s been growing because I’m one of the few analysts to break that model. And I distribute novel information synthesis for free to everyone. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.
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$SIVE是硅光子/CPO架构转变中的InP CW DFB激光器核心供应商，可能复制$LITE的估值扩张路径。
$SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 市场正在对下一个潜在的 photonics 瓶颈进行信息综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则面向即将到来的CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商那里获益，这些公司正在确保EML激光器的产能，用于当前的可插拔(optical transceiver)光收发器周期。 从当前的EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T光收发器及上游产能，从： -$AAOI（内部供应） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(Co-Packaged Optics,CPO)。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率连续波(CW) DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能引发一次完全的、突然的需求量范式转变。 $SIVE受益于用于SiPh和CPO的磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET使用$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装(advanced packaging)。 然后它们向上输送给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（后者购买$POET的interposers）。 然而，如果你追溯到上游，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光引擎($SIVE)；硅光子学封装($POET等)是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未达到。但我们知道它即将到来。 正如从当前光收发器周期所见： -$LITE和$COHR的光源需求获得的估值远高于$FN等专注先进封装的公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但错过了它们获取Starlight实际$ITE型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括与$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等公司面临多源竞争。所以再次强调，请务必做自己的研究。 但我对此的反驳： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求——早在这两家公司变得流行之前（类似于$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在成功可以抵消这一点。 为扩大产能而稀释股权的风险，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做过$LITE的研究，仍看好这只股票用于Google TPU ramp/光电路开关(OCS)。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为新一轮光子学架构转变的个人CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期轮动的思考。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is now up +73.78% today ($231M MC). As markets price in information synthesis of the next potential $LITE of photonics. If I had to explain the difference: One laser source in Lumentum primarily benefits from current optical bottlenecks. The other in $SIVE is for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonic bottleneck. Lumentum is largely benefiting right now from $NVDA and hyperscalers securing capacity of EML lasers for current pluggable optical transceivers cycles. As seen with the current EML bottleneck, hyperscalers are buying out any 800G/1.6T transceiver + upstream capacity from: - $AAOI (in-house) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers + design) -> $FN (assembly) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers) -> Innolight / Eoptolink What's next? Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics. The architectural shift to CPO requires massive arrays of high-power CW DFB lasers. And this would likely trigger a complete, sudden paradigm shift in volume demand. $SIVE benefits from InP CW DFB lasers for SiPh and CPO: The up and coming companies like: $AYAR, $POET source $SIVE lasers, but primarily do advanced packaging. Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers). However, if you go upstream, the light source is $SIVE. CW DFB lasers are light engine ( $SIVE ); the silicon photonics package ( $POET and others) is how it gets transmitted. CPO scale is not there yet. But we know it's coming. And as seen with current optical transceiver cycles: - Light sources from $LITE and $COHR demand much higher valuations than companies like $FN that focus on advanced packaging. Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight. The risks are present including facing multi-source competition with $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others. So again, make sure to do your own research. But my argument against that: Sivers been early enough to tailor custom lasers to fit $POET, Ayar, and other specifications before they got popular (sort like the $POET to $MRVL Celestial analogy). There's volume risks as well: But the potential Win Semi qualification offsets that. Dilution risk to scale capacity, is always present with every early-stage company as well. I did my thesis on $LITE last year and still love the stock for Google TPU ramp/OCS. But this year, I'm focusing on: $SIVE, as my personal CW DFB laser exposure for the new photonics architectural shift. I’m sharing my own thoughts on capturing the rotation from the current EML cycle to the upcoming CW DFB/Silicon Photonics cycle.
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对比美国和中国的机器人演示，强调中国在身体制造和供应链实现上更领先。
美国机器人 vs 中国机器人。 我们是不是已经完了？ 今天 Jensen 在 $NVDA GTC 上展示了一个现场演示，基本上像个“雪人 Frosty”一样。 这还是在 $QLCM 的机器人演示摔倒之后。 而在中国那边，随便就能看到各种机器人演示……
原推 ↗英文原文
American Robotics vs. Chinese Robotics. Are we cooked chat? Today Jensen Showcased a live demo of basically Frosty the Snowman at $NVDA GTC. This is following $QLCM's robot falling over at a demo. Meanwhile over in China, there's random robots out there sprinting marathons around the city.
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作者认为 $SIVE 作为 NVIDIA 硅光子/CPO 架构中的激光器瓶颈供应商，有望成为下一个 $LITE。
$SIVE 现在已上涨 50%+，市值达到 1.9 亿美元（约 18 亿瑞典克朗）。 然而，我真心相信这可能是硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)领域的下一个 $LITE。 我持有该股票，因为我的个人牛市预期是市值 100 亿美元+。 因为 Sivers 处于由 $NVDA 主导的新一代光子架构的硅光子 CW DFB 激光器瓶颈位置。 这与 $COHR/$LITE 的 EML 激光器是当前光收发器瓶颈的情况类似。 他们已经是 Ayar、$POET（购买 $SIVE 激光器→先进封装进光学中介层）以及可能其他硅光子/CPO 玩家的激光供应商。 Win Semi 正在进行中的认证是最大的牛市因素之一，因为这使他们能够扩大产能。 时间会证明这个论点是否正确，但我个人认为这只股票被广泛忽视了。 这是我自己的个人论点，我不建议任何人跟随。 但如果你 DYOR（自己做研究），也许你会得出和我一样的结论：$SIVE 看起来是下一个 $LITE。 TLDR: InP 激光器是当前光子学的瓶颈，这从 $LITE 的估值可以看出。 $SIVE 看起来是即将到来的 CPO/硅光子学浪潮中的迷你 $LITE。 我个人在 $SIVE 建立了多头仓位，因为我相信他们是即将到来的由 $NVDA（借助 GTC 催化剂）推动的硅光子/CPO 架构变革的主要受益者之一。 对我来说，这个上行空间作为下一个可能的 $LITE 实在太诱人了。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE is now up 50%+, to a $190 million USD MC (~1.8B SEK -> USD). However, I genuinely believe this could be the next $LITE for silicon photonics/CPO. And I’m holding shares, as my personal bull case scenario is $10 billion+. As Sivers sits in the silicon photonics CW DFB laser bottleneck of the next gen photonic architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. This is compared to how $COHR / $LITE EML lasers are the current optical transceiver bottleneck. They’re already the laser supplier to Ayar, $POET (buys $SIVE lasers -> advanced packaging into optical interposers), and likely other silicon photonics/cpo players The Win semi ongoing qualification is one of the biggest bull cases, as this allows them to scale up capacity. Time will tell if this thesis turns out to be correct but I personally think this name is widely undiscovered. This is my own personal thesis and I’m not recommending anyone to tag along. But if you DYOR, maybe you’ll come to the same conclusion I did that $SIVE looks like the next $LITE.
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说虽然 NBIS 和数据中心股之前经历了剧烈回撤，但终于开始兑现。
@soulbiri1 对，$NBIS 和数据中心股票前几个月经历了非常惨烈的回撤。 但很高兴我在去年底对 Nebius 的信念，开始慢慢兑现了。尤其是在新的超大规模云合同和 $NVDA 资金支持之后。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah, there was a brutal few month drawdown with $NBIS and datacenter stocks. But glad the conviction in Nebius from late last year is starting to pay off. Especially with the new hyperscaler deals and $NVDA funding
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作者认为$SIVE是CPO时代的迷你$LITE，当前$140M估值严重低估，上涨空间巨大。
我做多$SIVE，成本$140M。 我认为这是下一个被市场和机构忽视的$LITE。 $SIVE生产磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器。 最接近的类比是当前EML激光器瓶颈中的$LITE。 但不是向Innolight/Eoptolink供应当前光模块的光源。 他们向$POET Starlight、Ayar SuperNova供应激光器。 以及为$NVDA主导的未来CPO/硅光子(silicon photonics)架构中的其他厂商供货。 就我个人而言，当前估值完全没有道理。 $POET是$SIVE这类激光器的先进封装...但$POET的估值是其激光器制造商本身的11倍多？ 这感觉就像把一个更先进的$FN（估值约$200亿）封测厂定价为$4000亿，而$LITE的估值才$400亿。 所以现在$130M的情况下： - 你拥有一个类似迷你$LITE的激光器供应商，通过$POET向Marvell Celestial + 超大规模云厂商供货。 - 向Ayar（$NVDA、$INTC）供应激光器，虽然他们也与$LITE、住友、$MTSI等多源采购。 以及其他潜在的新兴供应商，比如他们曾在财报中提及的Lightmatter（如2023年Q2财报）。这点未经证实，但供应链BOM是保密的。 此外，就收入而言，他们预计“未来几年”管道收入$453M。 而且，他们通过WIN（Win Semi）进行产能扩张：“Win Semi foundry正在认证中，为Sivers的激光器设计进行批量生产。” Sivers感觉就像是硅光子/CPO时代的$LITE，拥有Celestial（通过$POET）、Ayar等实际快速增长客户，未来还会有更多。 去年我可能不会喜欢它，但就在3周前，他们成功将所有债务再融资为$12M可转换贷款（10.85%）和$5M定期贷款（12%），理清了债务。 总计$17M，这在美股市场感觉不算什么，而$AAOI每隔一周就在做$5亿ATM增发。 最重要的是，这是他们面向硅光子/光子的纯正InP激光器业务。 他们的激光雷达(Lidar)业务正在爬坡，预计产生$53-138M的收入。 下行风险： - 执行力（老生常谈） - 为扩大产能与$LITE等竞争而导致的稀释 - $NVDA刚给他们$40亿后，$LITE、$COHR在规模上的竞争 - CPO上量延迟 我完全不明白，$LWLG这家零收入的概念股与$TSEM在一起，估值怎会达到$10亿以上。 也不明白$POET怎会比他激光器供应商的价值高出约9-10倍。 而$SIVE，作为CPO/硅光子的迷你$LITE等价物，估值才$140M。 我确实认为这在机构中基本未被发掘，因为这是一家OMX Nordic交易所的不知名公司（类似于我在开始发布关于InP衬底瓶颈之前的小市值$AXTI）。 但我确实认为，随着Celestial和Ayar规模扩大，他们会获得很多机构关注。 特别是如果$POET和$SIVE获得其他客户认证的话。 如果CPO在未来超大规模云厂商架构中完全取代可插拔光模块。 Sivers，如果通过WIN Semi认证并成为NVIDIA、Marvell、Intel和Broadcom架构的多元采购激光器供应商，就可能被大幅重新定价。 就像$LITE今天从$16涨到$622一样。 这只是我分享的个人逻辑，DYOR/NFI（非投资建议）。 TLDR： InP激光器是光子学中当前的瓶颈，从$LITE的估值可见一斑。 $SIVE看起来像是即将到来的CPO/硅光子爬坡中的迷你$LITE。 我个人在$SIVE建了多头，因为我认为他们是$NVDA即将到来的硅光子/CPO架构变革（加上GTC催化剂）的主要受益者。 对我来说，这里的上涨空间作为下一个可能的$LITE实在太过诱人了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself? It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. So now at $130m: - - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt. It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. Downside risk: - execution (as always) - dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B - CPO ramp gets delayed. I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
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认为 neocloud 的数据中心如果有更酷的命名，估值可能会更高。
这是我的一个热观点： 像 $NBIS 或 $IREN 这样的 neocloud，如果把数据中心起个更酷的名字，估值可能会高 1.3 倍。 酷名字示例： - $POET 的 “Starlight” - $NVDA 的 “Blackwell” 但数据中心呢？ - $IREN 的 “Prince George” - $CIFR 的 “Barber Lake” 为什么要把 AI 数据中心命名成你的理发师名字，或者英国小孩的昵称？ 我发誓，除了现有投资者之外，没人会对 Iren 的 “Prince George” 数据中心上线感到兴奋。 但如果大家都看到 $NBIS 的 “Singularity” AI 数据中心上线，那听起来就酷多了。 Nebius 现在本该值 400 亿美元了。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is my hot take: Neoclouds like $NBIS or $IREN would command 1.3X higher valuation... If they renamed their datacenters to something cool. Cool Name Examples: - $POET "Starlight" - $NVDA "Blackwell" But datacenters? - $IREN "Prince George" - $CIFR "Barber Lake" Why are you naming an AI datacenter after your hair cut stylist or a British Kid nickname? I swear, nobody outside existing investors are going to hyped over Iren's "Prince George" datacenters coming online. But if everyone see's $NBIS "Singularity" AI DC coming online, that just sounds badass. Nebius would be worth $40B by now.
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对比CSP与Long的风险收益，指出CC使用时机的重要性
观点一致！我认为现金担保看跌期权(CSP)几乎零风险，而相反观点说"风险巨大"其实不太对，因为说到底你只是在买股票而已。只不过收益比直接做多(Long)低得多。这正是为什么我通常不使用CSP，除非我想分批建仓，或者想在像现在这样的时期交易波动率。不过我发现卖出覆盖认购期权(CC)要痛苦得多，因为很多时候会因为某个随机催化剂而突破你的行权价（比如$NBIS从$NVDA获得20亿美元），如果你不想缴纳资本利得税，就得把它买回来。如果你本来就打算卖出或者你真的很擅长择时（这对大多数人来说做不到），用CC会更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Same opinion! I find CSP to be almost 0 risk against contrary opinion saying “massive risk” since as you mentioned it’s just buying a stock. The returns are just a lot, lot lower than going Long though. Which is why I typically don’t use it unless I want to scale into positions or want to trade volatility during times like these. I find writing CCs is a lot more painful though since a lot of times it blows past your strike on a random cataylst (eg. $NBIS getting $2B from $NVDA and if you don’t want capital gains, you need to buy it back. Better to use it if you’re down to sell or you’re really good at timing (which is not for most people)
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认为到 2028 年热管理会成为巨大瓶颈，尤其当新芯片功耗逼近 2000W。
@pioter_pan 热管理到 2028 年会成为一个巨大的瓶颈，尤其是当新的 $NVDA 或 $AMD 芯片接近 2000W+ 功耗的时候。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pioter_pan Thermal is gonna be a huge bottleneck in 2028 especially as new $NVDA or $AMD chips approach 2000w+
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
原推 ↗英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
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Anduril 获得 200 亿美元合同，对 PLTR 等整合型供应链伙伴有利，但对大型下游伙伴提振较小。
Anduril 获得了美国战争部授予的累计 200 亿美元合同。 这对 $PLTR、$KRKNF、$SPIR、$ACHR 以及其他供应链 / 集成合作伙伴是利好消息。 而像 $ORCL、$AMD、$NVDA 这种更大的合作方，拿到的顺风可能没那么多。 “Anduril……获得了一份固定价格合同，累计总额 200 亿美元，用于整合当前和未来的商业解决方案，包括自家的开放架构、AI 驱动的 Lattice 套件、集成硬件、数据、计算基础设施以及技术支持服务。”
原推 ↗英文原文
Andruil $20 Billion USD cumulative total contract awarded by US Department of War. Positive news for $PLTR, $KRKNF, $SPIR, $ACHR and other supply chain/integration partners. Larger partners from $ORCL, $AMD, and $NVDA are less likely to get much of a tailwind. “Andruil… was awarded a firm-fixed-price contract with a cumulative total of $20,000,000,000 to consolidate current and future commercial solutions, including the proprietary, open-architecture, AI-enabled Lattice suite, integrated hardware, data, computer infrastructure, and technical support services”
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博主分享光子学供应链投资组合，按风险等级分层推荐多只股票。
我是最早一批覆盖光子学供应链股票的人。 大多数自发布以来涨幅达到100-400%以上。 以下是我的核心论点帖的概要总结： 截至今日“最安全”的多头标的： - $TSEM（高塔半导体） - $SOI（Soitec） - $COHR——随时间推移具有防御性的复利型公司。 Soitec——在硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)架构攀升中拥有基板垄断地位，估值极低（即使近期上涨40%+，可能仍只有1.4倍市净率）。 高塔半导体——2028年市盈率处于十几倍区间，70%以上的产能已被预订，是$NVDA架构合作伙伴，基本上是光子学领域的纯Play版$TSM。 Coherent——在光子学领域基本上覆盖从材料/基板到激光器再到光收发器的全产业链，同时也是许多其他垂直领域的基础供应商。 最高贝塔/极高增长多头标的： $AXTI——与Sumitomo形成磷化铟(InP)双头垄断（后者正面临出口管制），与Vital在上游原料端形成双头垄断。 基本上，AXT处于整个光子学食物链的顶端。出口管制风险确实存在，但我的论点是：如果AXT倒下，那么AI驱动的光子学建设也会崩塌。所以还不如做多AXT。 $AAOI——到2027年收入增长10倍。激光器->设计->组装，美国制造。主要不确定性在于执行能力、扩大从$COHR收购的激光器产能等。 超大规模数据中心运营商的需求都存在。他们能交付吗？我愿意承担这个风险。 $IQE——基本上完全依赖重组和清理债务（市值约2亿美元）。作为$LITE的外延晶圆(epiwafer)知名供应商，其主要竞争对手Landmark估值超过35亿美元。 其现有产能（反应器）潜力存在，但基本上需要成功转型光子学并切断传统业务的拖累，才能实现10倍的重新定价。 风险最高，但也可能有相应的回报。 做多$GOOGL TPU生态系统相关： $LITE——由于光学电路交换机(OCS)垄断地位，其光学相关的物料清单(BOM)占比非常高。 如果你认为谷歌TPU是一个可能最终像$NVDA那样的万亿美元项目，那就做多$LITE。 谷歌计划2026年资本支出1750-1800亿美元，其AI基础设施CTO表示计划逐年增加，可能在未来8年投入1万亿美元。 如果这个计划成立，$LITE相对于未来潜力来说估值极低。当然，他们也向其他超大规模数据中心运营商供应激光器，但我会说它与谷歌增长的关联度更高。 _ 还有许多其他我覆盖过的标的： $POET——我本人不做多，但其4亿美元资产负债表提供了良好的缓冲。我发现从$MRVL攀升中发现的Celestial项目太遥远——例如2028年预计收入5亿美元、2029年10亿美元——对于2026年来说不具实质意义。 这很大程度上取决于他们的中介器(interposers)是否能获得其他超大规模数据中心运营商的认证，而不是通过Marvell走后门——这是主要的看涨逻辑。 $HIMX——我确实发现这个论点略有说服力，作为可能的$TSM共封装光学(CPO)供应商。 但我个人更偏好$SOI，会将更多集中度投入其中（因为Soitec作为已知供应商已基本覆盖整个硅光子学领域，而且刚从下行周期中走出）。 还有很多其他的如$NOK、$SHMN也很有趣，但我个人已将集中度投入到我认为最有说服力的标的。 像$LITE这样的“拥挤标的”并不意味着没有剩余上涨空间。只是在有新消息之前，估值已经更多地被反映进去了。 存在许多“关键供应商”，但供应链中的重要性...与将其转化为极高营收增长（例如$AAOI -> 45亿美元营收）之间存在差异。 但对于光子学敞口的简要总结，我的投资组合大致如下： 高集中度（更安全）： $TSEM晶圆代工、$SOI基板、$COHR全产业链 做多+卖看跌期权组合（高波动性）： $AXTI基板/原料、$IQE外延晶圆、$AAOI光收发器供应链 然后做多谷歌相关$LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
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把 TSEM 当稳健复合器，把 AXTI 当高弹性标的
有 $TSEM 这种更稳的光子复合器。 然后还有我那匹打了类固醇、装了火箭发动机的赛马：$AXTI。 我的仓位已经涨了 550%+。 而 AXT 今天又涨了 10.38%。 $NVDA 的回报都被甩在后面了；几个月前把 AXT 识别为 InP 瓶颈，很多人因此实现了代际财富。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s $TSEM, my safer photonics compounder. Then there’s my race horse on steroids, with a rocket ship attached: $AXTI. My positions are up over 550%+. And AXT is up another 10.38% today. $NVDA returns got left in the dust, as identifying AXT as the InP bottleneck few months ago was generational wealth to many.
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强调基本面比技术面更重要
如果 $NVDA 给一家公司 1000 亿美元，而那家公司的市值只差 1 亿美元，毛利率 80%。 那这只股票还是会继续涨，哪怕“图看起来已经太高了”。 RSI 是什么、有没有超涨，都不重要。 大多数画技术图的人，确实完全忽略了基本面；但我也确实关注少数几个真的懂行的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
If $NVDA gives a company $100B and the MC of it is $100M off, 80% gross margins. The stock will keep going up despite "charts looking too high". It doesn't matter what the RSI is or if it's extended. Majority of TA drawers do completely discount fundamentals, but there's a few I follow that actually do know what they're talking about.
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用法语解释为什么偏好 Soitec 及光子/内存主题
我其实更喜欢 $SOI，主要因为它在光子领域里的关键作用。 基于硅光子的 AI 新架构，最终都会用到 Soitec 的衬底材料，这也是它最近被如此关注的原因。 我更偏主题化地投资那些已经被许多超大规模云厂商（比如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 和其他公司）大举下注的领域，而我看好的正是光子和内存这两个方向。 我也粗略看过 Viridien，但我觉得地学数据、地球物理和探测并不是我的强项，所以我不觉得自己有资格给出很好的方向性判断。 不过还是感谢你花时间把法语翻成英语来提问。
原推 ↗英文原文
C'est vraiment $SOI que je préfère, principalement en raison de son rôle majeur dans la photonique. Les nouvelles architectures d'intelligence artificielle basées sur la photonique sur silicium finissent toutes par utiliser les matériaux de substrat de Soitec, d'où le vif intérêt qu'elle suscite récemment. J'investis de manière plutôt thématique dans des secteurs où de nombreux « hyperscalers » comme $GOOGL, $NVDA et d'autres ont injecté massivement de l'argent, et ces deux secteurs sont la photonique et la mémoire. J'ai jeté un petit coup d'œil à Viridien, mais je ne pense pas que les données terrestres, les géosciences et la détection soient mes domaines d'expertise. Je ne me sens donc pas qualifié pour donner un bon avis directionnel. Mais j'apprécie que vous ayez pris le temps de traduire du français vers l'anglais pour poser une question.
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梳理 Nvidia 光子链条上的上下游关系
@BrokeDadCapital 基本上，$NVDA 先是抛出很多线索，然后这些线索之间还有几层传导关系。 比如：$SLOIF -> $TSEM -> $NVDA 或者 $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BrokeDadCapital Basically, there’s a lot of breadcrumbs by $NVDA then there’s few hop relations with those breadcrumbs. Eg. $SLOIF -> $TSEM -> $NVDA Or maybe $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE.
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用 Nvidia GTC 前夕串联光子供应链
$NVDA 的 GTC 就在下周。 市场也在猜，Nvidia 的新硅光架构会公布哪些名字。 > $TSEM 与 $NVDA 合作硅光 > $NVDA 投资了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以锁定供应链 > $AXTI 是 InP 衬底的瓶颈 > Soitec（$SOI）在硅光的 SOI 衬底上几乎是垄断 嗯，$NVDA 的供应链里到底会有哪些公司呢？线索完全没有嘛！ 还是等发布会再看吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA GTC is next week. And markets are wondering what names will be announced with Nvidia’s new silicon photonics architecture. > $TSEM works with $NVDA for silicon photonics > $NVDA invested in both $COHR and $LITE to secure supply chains > $AXTI a bottleneck for InP substrates > Soitec ( $SOI ) a monopoly around SOI substrates for silicon photonics Hmmm. There’s zero clues to what companies might be in the supply chain of $NVDA! Better wait for the event to find out?
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感谢媒体覆盖 Soitec，并确认自己的核心论点
这次终于感谢 MarketScreener 对 $SOI 的真实报道。 文章写道： “在专门讨论 Soitec 的帖子里，作者提出了几个论点。他认为，该集团可能受益于 CPO（共封装光学）的发展，而 CPO 是为伴随人工智能和数据中心崛起而设计的一种光子架构。根据他的说法，Soitec 在该技术所用的某些 SOI 衬底上拥有近乎垄断的地位，如果光子技术被大规模采用，这一优势可能变得具有战略意义。该投资者还提到，他认为估值水平偏低，并相信到 2027 年，市场可能会开始提前布局一个对光子技术有前景的周期。” 这其实就是我原来的 thesis，没有多余修饰。 上一次 FT 和 Bloomberg 报道我的 $RPI 论点时，他们莫名其妙给贴上“meme stock”的标签，还硬加了不少我根本没说过的话，直接带来负面情绪。 不过话说回来： $SOI 基本上是 CPO 衬底层上的虚拟垄断。 未来一两年我会继续持有，因为我预计它会成为 $NVDA 主导的下一轮架构起量中的最大受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thank you MarketScreener for actual coverage of $SOI this time. The article writes: “In the post dedicated to Soitec, the author puts forward several arguments. He believes that the group could benefit from the development of CPO (co-packaged optics), a photonic architecture designed to accompany the rise of artificial intelligence and data centers. According to him, Soitec would have a quasi-monopolistic position on certain SOI substrates used in this technology, an advantage that could become strategic if photonics is adopted on a large scale. The investor also mentions a valuation level that he considers low and believes that the market could begin to position itself ahead of a promising cycle for photonics by 2027” This was exactly the thesis, no extra fluff. Last time media from FT and Bloomberg covered my thesis on $RPI, they labeled it a “meme-stock” out of nowhere. With many outlets straight up adding words never stated, which triggered negative sentiment. That being said: $SOI is a virtual monopoly over the substrate layer for CPO. I plan to hold my positions over the next year or two, as I expect it to be the largest beneficiary of the upcoming architectural ramp spearheaded by $NVDA.
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LWLG虽与TSEM整合重要，但从零收入和投机角度看风险较高
我已经研究过$LWLG了。对我个人来说，没有披露任何财务条款，而且这只是一个整合合作关系。所以从零收入角度来看太投机了，像Soitec这样的公司已经通过供应链把产品卖给$NVDA，价值也没比这高多少。但人们可以自由承担这个风险。不过话说回来，$TSEM的整合对他们的公司来说是非常重要的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Already looked into $LWLG. For me personally, there’s no disclosed financial terms and it’s an integration partnership. So too speculative off zero revenue, companies like Soitec already pass through supply to $NVDA and aren’t worth that much more. But people are free to take that risk. That being said the $TSEM integration is extremely material for their company.
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看多 Tower Semi 作为光子代工层的非对称机会
我做多 $TSEM，把它看成光子领域里的 $TSM。 我最看好的两只 CPO 标的是 $SOI 和 Tower Semi。 考虑到下周 $NVDA GTC 会有关于新光子架构的催化，我预计 Tower Semi 会迎来很强的催化。 Nvidia 上个月已经直接和 Tower 合作扩展 1.6T 硅光，这几乎就是在给 GTC 提示，随后很可能推动下游玩家采用它。 而现在，Tower 已经是 1.6T SiPh PIC 的领先供应商，也是规模化 CPO 架构的主要代工厂（另一个是 GlobalFoundries）。 根据我的前瞻估算： 2028 年前瞻 PE 约为 16.8 倍到 18.1 倍。 （Tower 目标到 2028 年实现 28.4 亿美元收入，经营利润率约 31.7%，净利润约 7.5 亿美元。） 要注意的是，他们计划中的 SiPh 产能已有 70% 以上被预订到 2028 年了，而光子业务甚至还没真正起量。 所以我预计，随着光子产能极度扩张以及分配价格上调，而这些还没被模型完全计入，Tower 的盈利会明显超预期。 另外，$TSEM 因为 70% 产能已被预订，实际上风险已经大幅下降。 它的市值之所以还低，很大程度上是因为它是光子供应链里非常冷门的上游玩家。 但我预计 $NVDA GTC 会成为把它推向溢价估值的催化剂。 我做多 $TSEM，是把它当成上游光子代工层的非对称上行标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics. My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi. Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week: I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst. Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T silicon photonics last month (hint hint for GTC), likely pushing the downstream players to use it. And now, Tower is the leading supplier of 1.6T SiPh PICs and the primary foundry for scale-up CPO architectures. (the other being global foundries) From my forward est: 2028 Forward P/E: ~16.8x to ~18.1x (Tower set a target $2.84B revenue by 2028, with ~31.7% operating margin, ~$750M in net profit) The thing to note is over 70% of their planned SiPh capacity is already reserved through 2028. And photonics haven't even ramped up yet. So, I expect them to strongly beat earning projections due to extreme photonics scaling + allocations price hikes that's not modeled into projections. Also, $TSEM is heavily de-risked by 70% of capacity already being reserved. MC is likely due to $TSEM being a very obscure upstream player in the photonics supply chain. But I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations. I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer.
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对比 NBIS 与 IREN 的融资结构，认为前者更优
$NBIS 和 $IREN 的差别，简直天壤之别。 Nebius：来自 $NVDA 的 20 亿美元稀释，没有立刻对公众流通盘形成卖压。 IREN：通过 ATM 稀释 60 亿美元，卖压直接打进公开市场。 这会直接从公众手里抽走流动性，并压制动量。 谁更能通过资本开支融资带来更高的股价升值，已经非常清楚了。 一个是与 Nvidia 的战略合作，另一个是有毒融资。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NBIS vs. $IREN. The difference is night and day. Nebius: $2B dilution from $NVDA, zero immediate selling pressure to the public float Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum Very clear, which company leads to higher share value appreciation from capex financing. One is strategic with Nvidia, the other is toxic financing.
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认为 Soitec 因光子垄断继续大涨只是开始
看来市场确实喜欢隐藏的光子垄断？ Soitec 盘中又涨了 16%。 如果你看 $NVDA 主导的 CPO 光子架构起量：这几乎是抛物线式的。 $SOI 很可能会成为一只可以拿很多年的票，因为它是 CPO 的衬底垄断者。 而且最重要的是，下周还有即将到来的 $NVDA GTC 发布会。 这大概率会提醒机构去寻找他们错过的玩家，比如 $AXTI，现在再加上 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
Turns out markets like hidden photonics monopolies? Soitec is up 16% intraday. If you look at the CPO photonics architectural ramp led by $NVDA: It’s parabolic. $SOI is likely a name that people can hold for many years as the substrate monopoly for CPO. And best of yet, there’s the upcoming $NVDA GTC announcement next week. Which would likely signal to institutions to start looking into players they missed like $AXTI, and now $SOI.
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认为 Nvidia 对 Nebius 的 20 亿投资是极强信号
@beauty_oe 考虑到 $NBIS 的市值，$NVDA 投入 20 亿美元是一个极其巨大的动作，也足以成为他们未来成长的超强信号！ Nebius 是我最喜欢的长期标的之一，用来押注 AI 未来的敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
@beauty_oe $NBIS の時価総額を考えると $NVDA による20億ドルの投資はとてつもなく大きく、彼らの今後の成長を裏付ける超強力なシグナルだ！Nebiusは、AIの未来にエクスポージャーを取るための長期銘柄として一番のお気に入り
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认为 Nebius 是下一家 AWS 级超大规模云
最新消息：Nvidia 向 $NBIS 投资了 20 亿美元。 我确信 Nebius 终将成为下一家 Amazon 级别的超大规模云。 因为它其实是 5 家业务的组合，而且这些业务的部分总和都在以三位数同比增长： - Nebius：AI Cloud，7 到 90 亿美元 ARR，正朝着下一个 AWS 发展 - ClickHouse：支撑大多数财富 500 强公司的数据库，上一轮估值 150 亿美元 - Avride：Robotaxi 和 FSD-4 级技术，现在正和 Uber 一起实车放量 - Toloka：数据标注平台，得到了 Jeff Bezos 的资金支持，也被 $AMZN 使用 - TripleTen：教育平台，虽然没那么性感，但增长也很快 另外还有像 SWE-rebench 这类广泛使用的 benchmark 之类的 side quests。 Jensen 对 Nebius 的 $NVDA 投资表达的也是同一个意思：Nebius 站在 AI 前沿，正引领浪潮去满足不断增长的算力需求。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in: Nvidia has invested $2B into $NBIS. I'm convinced Nebius is the next Amazon-level hyperscaler over time. As they're 5 companies all growing sum-of-parts triple digits Y/Y: - Nebius: $7-9B ARR from AI Cloud as the next AWS. - Clickhouse: DB powering majority of fortune 500 companies, last valuation at $15B - Avride: Robotaxi and FSD-4 level technology, now scaling up live with Uber. - Toloka: Data Labeling platform, funded by Jeff Bezos and used by $AMZN - TripleTen: Education platform, not as sexy as the rest, but still fast growing. With sidequests from the widely used benchmarks like SWE-rebench. Jensen's $NVDA investment into Nebius shares the same sentiment: Nebius is at the forefront of AI and leading the wave to meet the growing demand for compute.
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改变看法买入Soitec，认为CPO垄断地位叠加NVDA催化剂有望带来3倍回报。
改变了对Soitec ($SLOIF)的看法，建了一个约43美元的大仓位以获取CPO（共封装光学）敞口。 $NVDA下周GTC大会是推动光子学及这一架构的最大催化剂。 市值约15亿欧元，以1倍账面价值和约2倍市销率交易（估值非常低迷）。 在CPO基板方面拥有真正的垄断地位（光子学通常享有很高的溢价估值，垄断地位更是额外溢价）。 算法和分析师可能会对市场份额感到困惑，但在SOI基板上这实际上是垄断——他们授权给其他厂商如Shin Etsu是为了多样化，例如$TSM不喜欢只有一家供应商。 我不认为机构会等到明年才提前布局像Soitec这样的名字，或者$TSEM（而且大多数人甚至还没听说过$AXTI这样的名字）。 这个时机是在买入智能手机周期低迷阶段的可能底部，同时获得CPO在2027年中后期的全部上涨空间，加上下周$NVDA GTC催化剂。 我个人认为从这里还有3倍空间，所以我做多了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
匿名者，你听了我关于 $AXTI 的论点吗？ 警告：整个 AI 行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值 7 亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值 317 亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球 60–70% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的 $NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7 集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN 超大规模计算集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR 使用磷化铟(InP)用于 800G/1.6T 光收发器中的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈激光器(DFB)及其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从 TPU 到 Maia 的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)、GPU 和超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模计算光学（TPU 集群等） - 光收发器（5G、数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（Robotaxi、无人机、军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia 未来的共封装光学(CPO)以及 Intel/Broadcom 硅光子学引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： - AXTI（估计 ~30–35%） - 住友（估计 ~30%） - JX 日本（估计 10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021 年的行业报告指出“住友电工 + AXT 共同拥有‘超过 75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模计算/AI 正在向光子学转变，但整个 AI 行业是脆弱的。 如果 $AXTI 或 $SMTOY 中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的 AI 建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家 7 亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着 AI 行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HBM)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hope you listened to my $AXTI thesis anon? https://t.co/d5eg0BIhlG
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甲骨文澄清阿比林数据中心进展，回应彭博社引发的抛售。
彭博社关于 OpenAI 和 $ORCL 的报道在周五引发了大规模抛售。 涉及从 $LITE 到 $MU 的半导体供应链。 今天，甲骨文发布声明回应彭博社： “近期关于阿比林（Abilene）站点的媒体报道是虚假且不正确的。 首先，Crusoe 和甲骨文正紧密协作，以破纪录的速度交付全球最大的 AI 数据中心之一。 其次，甲骨文已完成额外 4.5GW 的租赁，以履行我们对 OpenAI 的承诺。” 此前，商务部周四已驳斥了关于 $NVDA 和 $AMD 出口管制的虚假报道。
原推 ↗英文原文
Bloomberg’s piece on OpenAI and $ORCL triggered a massive selloff Friday. Of the semi supply chain from $LITE to $MU. Today, Oracle put out a statement in response to Bloomberg: “Recent media activity about the Abilene site are false and incorrect. First, Crusoe and Oracle are operating in lockstep to deliver one of the world's largest AI Data centers in Abilene at record-breaking pace. Second, Oracle has completed leasing for the additional 4.5GW to deliver on our commitments to OpenAI.” This comes following the Department of Commerce denying the false reports around $NVDA and $AMD export controls on Thursday.
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NVDA锁定EML产能，光子学上游材料受制于中国，COWOS/HBM/光子学成瓶颈。
$NVDA 去年锁定了大部分光模块(EML)产能，导致其他超大规模云服务商面临巨大瓶颈。然而，光子学整体是一个材料问题，最上游的材料由中国控制。这并非英伟达能单方面决定的。不过，他们通常是最早布局的，这给 $META、$MSFT、$AMZN、$GOOGL 留下了更多问题，因此本文指出共封装光学(COWOS)、高带宽内存(HBM)和光子学可能是瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA secured most of the EML capacity last year and caused a huge bottleneck for other hyperscalers. However, photonics as a whole is a materials problem, the most upstream materials controlled by China. Not exactly something Nvidia can decide. However, they're usually the first to things and that leaves more problems to $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL afterward, hence the point of the post signaling cowos, hbm, and photonics are probably the bottlenecks.
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，激光与InP紧缺，CPO变革预计2028年。
光子学是下一个主要瓶颈。 $NVDA 提前发出了每一个瓶颈的信号：从 HBM（与三星/SK海力士合作）到 CoWoS，再到如今对 $LITE 和 $COHR 的投资： 激光晶圆厂、共封装光学(CPO) 和磷化铟(InP)。 针对每个瓶颈中最具非对称性的多头标的： 1. InP 衬底：$AXTI，住友，JX 2. InP 上游原料+加工：$AXTI 3. 激光器：$AAOI（自研），$AVGO，$COHR，$LITE 4. CPO：$TSEM，Soitec。 $AAOI 财报电话会确认了激光器瓶颈，三家超大规模云厂商希望买断其能生产的所有光收发器。 $AXTI 的积压订单确认了 InP 衬底瓶颈。（玩家图片来源：IndexBox） CPO 瓶颈被广泛预期将在 2027-2028 年末发生。 $AVGO 关于“CPO”的评论带来了短期波动。但这不同于正在发生的激光->收发器和 InP 瓶颈。 关于时间框架： $AAOI，$LITE，$COHR 和激光收发器瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计像内存一样在 2028 年前恶化）。 $AXTI，住友和 InP 衬底瓶颈正在实时发生（并预计只要 AI 在未来多年使用光子学，情况就会恶化）。 由 $NVDA 引领的向 CPO 的大型架构转变可能发生在 2028 年。 这些对于 AI 的下一个范式转变来说似乎是不可避免的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is the next major bottleneck. $NVDA has signaled each one ahead of time from: HBM (with Samsung/Sk Hynix) to CoWoS and now with the $LITE and $COHR investment: Laser Fab, CPO, and InP. For the most asymmetrical longs in each bottleneck: 1. InP Substrates: $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX 2. InP Upstream Feedstock + Processing: $AXTI 3. Lasers: $AAOI (internal), $AVGO, $COHR, $LITE 4. CPO: $TSEM, Soitec. The laser bottleneck was confirmed from the $AAOI earnings call when three different hyperscaler wanted to buy out any optical transceiver they can produce. The InP substrate bottleneck was confirmed with the backlog from $AXTI. (Image source of players: IndexBox) And the CPO bottleneck is widely expected to happen later in late 2027-2028. There's short term volatility from $AVGO comments around "CPO" in specific. But that's different than the laser -> transceiver and InP bottlenecks happening now. For timeframes: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR and the laser transceiver bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse like memory into 2028). $AXTI, Sumitomo and the InP substrate bottleneck is happening real time (and is expected to get worse as long as AI uses photonics for the many years to come). And the larger architectural shift to CPO led by $NVDA will likely happen in 2028. These feel inevitable for the next paradigm shift in AI.
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最大回报源于亚洲供应链瓶颈及美系利基股，而非英伟达。
@pepemoonboy 经常看到这张图，所以花了很多时间做了一张新的！ 但这确实是事实，最大的回报大多来自亚洲的随机瓶颈环节，如日东纺(Nittobo)、宏碁(Macronix)和南亚玻璃(Nanya Glass)，以及美国玩家如 $SNDK 和 $LITE，而不是 $NVDA。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy Kept seeing this image pop up a lot so spent a lot of time to make a new one! But it's genuinely true though, most of largest returns came from random bottlenecks in Asia like Nittobo, Macronix, and Nanya Glass to US players like $SNDK and $LITE instead of $NVDA.
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真正超额收益来自控制铲子供应商所需的高价材料瓶颈。
当市场说“当所有人都去挖金矿时，卖出铲子”时，他们错了。为什么？真正的超额收益来自：对铲子供应商进行瓶颈控制。从$AXTI和$LITE的光子学衬底/EML激光器，到$SNDK向SK海力士供应NAND/DRAM，这些都是瓶颈环节。它们最终比那些聚集在$NVDA等铲子供应商周围的投资者更赚钱。这句谚语应该是：“当所有人都去挖金矿时，通过铲子供应商需要的高价材料来获利”。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets have got it wrong when they say: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Sell Shovels" You know why? The real alpha comes from: Bottlenecking the Shovel Sellers. Substrates/EML lasers in photonics from $AXTI and $LITE. to $SNDK to Sk Hynix for NAND/DRAM are those bottlenecks. And they end up individually more profitable, than the investors who crowd around shovel sellers like $NVDA. The saying should go: "When Everyone Digs for Gold, Profit off the Materials at jacked up prices that the Shovel Sellers need to Sell the Shovels".
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看好LITE和COHR，受NVDA注资及Google资本支出扩张驱动。
它们现在的定价非常合理，我预计像 $LITE 这样的公司明年股价可能会达到 1000 美元以上。它们每家都刚刚从 $NVDA 获得了 20 亿美元的新增注资，且估值远高于当前股价，同时现在正获得数十亿美元的标普指数被动资金流入。因此，除了今天 AH 对 MM 的压制/小动作外，这在结构上为光子学(Photonics)板块带来了巨大的顺风。如果查看 Google TPU 的物料清单(BOM)，$LITE 约占 8-12%，而 Google 仅在今年的资本支出(capex)就大幅扩张（例如约 1800 亿美元）。我很确定这两家公司的 2028 年远期市盈率(fwd p/e)都在 20 年代中期或 30 年代初期，考虑到它们的增长（$COHR 业务全面，$LITE 在光电路交换(OCS)领域具有垄断地位），这是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
They're really well priced right now, and I expect companies like $LITE to probably end up $1000+ next year. Each of them just got $2B each in new funding from $NVDA at way higher share values and now have billions in S&P index passive inflows. So this is structurally a large tailwind for the photonics sector, minus AH MM pinning/shenanigans today. If you look at Google TPU BOM $LITE is ~8-12% of it and Google's expanding capex enormously this year alone (eg. ~$180B). Pretty sure both of them have 2028 mid ~20s or low 30s fwd p/e, which makes sense given their growth ( $COHR does everything, $LITE OCS monopoly).
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驳斥NVDA/AMD出口管制误报，指出媒体煽动性报道影响算法。
我相当确定两者之间存在某种中间地带，甲骨文(Oracle)可能会推迟部分计划，而OpenAI/甲骨文通过CNBC发布消息表示建设仍在继续。 彭博社(Bloomberg)经常发布极其耸人听闻的文章，算法通常会随之跟进。 不过，昨天关于$NVDA和$AMD的虚假出口管制报道尤其恶劣。
原推 ↗英文原文
Pretty sure there’s some middle ground between the two with Oracle maybe delaying some parts of it while OpenAI/Oracle via CNBC putting out that the buildout is continuing. Bloomberg runs extremely sensational articles and algorithms usually follow that. Yesterday’s false export control reporting on $NVDA and $AMD was especially egregious though.
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澄清Oracle数据中心项目正常，视AI板块错杀为买入机会。
针对彭博社报道的最新回应：“Oracle与OpenAI的数据中心项目现有计划仍在按部就班进行。” 昨日因虚假的出口管制新闻，从$NVDA到$LITE的半导体板块遭遇暴跌。现在，关于$ORCL的消息是否会导致又一个类似的交易日？
原推 ↗英文原文
In a new response to Bloomberg article: “Existing plans for Oracle's data center project with OpenAi remain on track” The first Bloomberg report caused a crash in Semis from $NVDA to $LITE yesterday from false export control news. And now we have potentially another one day regarding involving $ORCL?
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AI板块因OpenAI消息大跌，但META介入带来特定个股买入机会。
说实话，彭博社的标题竟然连续第二天导致半导体市场崩盘，这确实令人印象深刻。 $LITE 下跌 14.4% $NVDA 下跌 3.5% $TSM 下跌 4.4%。 消息是 Oracle 和 OpenAI 没有扩大其 Stargate 项目的一部分。 这看起来比昨天的报道更可信，因为 OpenAI 的“传染效应”正在蔓延。 但在文章最底部，他们补充道： $META 将介入并考虑从开发商 Crusoe 那里租赁位于德克萨斯州阿比林的规划扩建场地。 这看起来像是特定个股的买入机会，因为 AI 交易的范围现在已经远远超出了 OpenAI，并且现在由从 $GOOGL 到 $META 的盈利超大规模云服务商提供资金支持。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s honestly impressive Bloomberg titles have managed to crash the Semi Market for a second day in a row. $LITE down 14.4% $NVDA down 3.5% $TSM down 4.4%. On the news that Oracle and OpenAI are not expanding a part of their Stargate project. This looks more legitimate than yesterday’s report as the OpenAI contagion is spreading. At the very bottom, they left added: $META, to step in and consider leasing the planned expansion site in Abilene, Texas, from developer Crusoe. This looks like a buying opportunity for specific names, as the AI trade has expanded far beyond OpenAI now and is now funded by profitable hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $META.
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美商务部辟谣AI扩散规则回归，称算法抛售半导体报道不实。
美国商务部发布报告回应路透社和彭博社：“今天有报道称我们将恢复人工智能扩散规则。我们不会。该规则负担沉重、过度越权且后果灾难性。” 此前关于 $NVDA 和 $AMD 的报道，称算法正在抛售半导体股票，从头到尾都是虚假的。
原推 ↗英文原文
US Department of Commerce put out a report in response to Reuters and Bloomberg: “Today there was reporting that we were returning to the AI diffusion rule. We will not. It was burdensome, overreaching, and disastrous.” The reporting around $NVDA and $AMD, that algorithms have been selling off semis on was false all along.
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驳斥彭博社误报出口管制草案引发半导体供应链恐慌性抛售。
彭博社刚刚引发了半导体市场的崩盘。凭记忆，受影响的标的从 $EWY 和 $SNDK 到 $NVDA 和 $TSM 都有。起因是假新闻。这简直是路透社关键矿产误导性报道的2.0版本。肯定得有人为此负责？
原推 ↗英文原文
Bloomberg just caused a semiconductor market crash. From memory names in $EWY and $SNDK to $NVDA and $TSM. Off fake news. This is Reuters critical minerals misleading reporting v2. Certainly someone needs to be held accountable? https://t.co/YaBNpl8nFB
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澄清AI芯片出口管制仅为提案，驳斥误报引发的供应链恐慌。
“美国正考虑要求全球 $NVDA、$AMD AI 芯片销售需获许可” 市场正对特朗普政府拟对英伟达实施类似 $AXTI 出口管制待遇的消息做出剧烈反应。 关键词：提案 | 草案。 该提案原样通过的可能性几乎为零。 随着消息报道，科技公司很可能正在游说政府。 文章中提到： 特朗普政府将提出法规，要求全球 AI 芯片出货需经美国批准。 该法案的结果将毫无理由地造成 AI 贸易瓶颈，并损害特朗普最看重的指标：美国股市。 特朗普曾以废除拜登时代的 AI 扩散规则而闻名： “包括英伟达、微软和甲骨文在内的主要美国科技公司曾游说反对该规则，认为其可能导致数十亿美元收入损失，并促使合作伙伴转向中国技术。” 因此，新政策的实施将与其议程背道而驰。 不幸的是，其他文章和新闻将其改写为迫在眉睫的出口管制，而非提案。 耸人听闻/虚假的标题报道引发了从 $TSM、$NVDA 到 $MU 的整个供应链今日的大幅抛售。 然而，人们确实有权对潜在影响感到担忧。
原推 ↗英文原文
“US Mulls Requiring Permits for Global $NVDA, $AMD AI Chip Sales” Markets are reacting violently to news of the Trump administration was thinking about giving Nvidia the $AXTI export control treatment. Keyword: Proposal | Draft. There is an almost zero chance it passes as is. Tech companies are likely lobbying the administration as this gets reported. In the article: The Trump administration will propose regulations that would require American approval for AI chip shipments worldwide. The result of this bill would bottleneck the AI trade for no reason and harm Trump’s favorite metric: the US stock market. Trump was known for rescinding the Biden-era AI Diffusion Rule: “Major U.S. tech firms, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle, lobbied against the rule, arguing it could cost them billions in revenue and push partners towards Chinese technology.” So a new policy getting enacted, would be counterintuitive to his agenda. Unfortunately other articles + news on elsewhere reworded this as an imminent export control, rather than a proposal. Sensational / false headline reporting triggered a massive selloff of the entire supply chain from $TSM, $NVDA, to $MU today. However, people do have a right to be worried about the implications.
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分析$AAOI空头逻辑与执行风险，看好其超大规模云需求及潜在10倍回报。
我看到的关于 $AAOI 的空头基本观点是：2.5亿美元的定向增发(ATM)不足以覆盖产能爬坡，他们还需要5000万至2.78亿美元（考虑到规模，这只是小钱）。 主要论点始终围绕执行力和潜在逆风： - 他们能否将台湾组装业务回流美国 - 扩大激光产能，以便不再零星使用 $COHR - 制造扩张的执行情况 - 中国厂商是否会导致毛利率压缩 - 共封装光学(CPO)的到来（$GOOGL + $AVGO 已确认其退出） 我不认为这是客户集中度问题，因为从 $AMZN、$MSFT 到 $META 的每个超大规模云服务商都在抢购他们能生产的所有供应。 但我认为风险已经计入市值(MC)，超大规模云服务商的需求加上 $NVDA 资助生态系统可能是最大的顺风+信号。 如果他们能执行到位，这多少让我想起 $RKLB 的“中子星”火箭。如果完美执行，我看到10倍的空间。如果不能，那就是我为上行空间承担的风险。
原推 ↗英文原文
The base case I’ve seen from $AAOI short sellers was that the $250m ATM doesn’t cover the capacity ramp and they needed $50m-$278m more (which is pennies given scale) The main argument is always around execution and potential headwinds: - whether they can reshore Taiwan assembly to US - scale up laser capacity so they don’t need to use $COHR here and there - executing on manufacturing expansion. - whether there’s margin compression from Chinese players - cpo arrival ( $GOOGL + $AVGO confirmed its way out) I don’t see it being a customer concentration problem since every hyperscaler from $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are trying to buy up any supply they can make. But I see the risk being priced into MC already and hyperscaler demand + $NVDA funding the ecosystem is probably the biggest tailwind + signal. It sorta does gives me $RKLB neutron vibes if they can execute. And if they can flawlessly I see it being a 10x. And if they don’t, that’s the risk I’m taking for the upside.
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CPO技术前景广阔，NVDA积极布局，AVGO虽失META但仍有其他大客户。
@JK30998937 不，共封装光学(CPO)无论如何都是大势所趋，只是目前情绪略微偏空。$NVDA 正在积极追求这一技术，即使 $GOOGL 没有。这相当于 $META 放弃其专用集成电路(ASIC)项目，且 $AVGO 可能失去一个客户。但博通(Broadcom)仍拥有谷歌和其他超大规模云服务商。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JK30998937 Nah, CPO is up and coming anyway it's just slightly bearish. $NVDA is actively pursuing it even if $GOOGL doesn't. It's the equivalent of $META dropping its ASIC program and $AVGO possibly losing a customer. But Broadcom still has Google and other hyperscalers.
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定投SK海力士并轮动至存储板块，视当前波动为中期买入机会。
我个人正在对SK海力士(SK Hynix)进行定投，并将其他持仓轮动回存储芯片领域。美国、澳大利亚和马来西亚将填补液化天然气(LNG)的缺口，因为存储芯片对美国的人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，尤其是为了避免在竞争中落后于中国。我将此视为一个买入机会，就像去年大家恐慌性抛售$NVDA时那样。不知道这种波动会持续多少天，也很难精准抄底，但中期来看我认为它会恢复。
原推 ↗英文原文
I’m personally cost averaging into SK Hynix and rotating my other names back into memory. US/Australia/Malaysia will fill the LNG gap as memory is critical to America’s AI buildout. Especially so it doesn’t lose to China. I just see this as a buying opportunity like when everyone panic sold $NVDA the other year. Don’t know how many days this volatility lasts + hard to time the bottom, but mid term I see it recovering.
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买入Soitec需忍受漫长等待，NVDA投资CPO相关股或成催化剂。
@OnlyGB 我最终确实买入了 Soitec，但如果市场不打算现在就对共封装光学(CPO)进行定价，这将是一段极其痛苦的等待期。我觉得 $NVDA 投资 $COHR 和 $LITE 可能是一个微小的催化剂。
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@OnlyGB I did end up buying Soitec, but it's going to be an incredibly painful wait unless markets want to price in CPO now. I feel like $NVDA investing in $COHR and $LITE might have been a tiny catalyst.
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光子学成AI新范式，机构抢跑推升相关股价。
光子学是AI的新架构范式。未来几年做多。 $NVDA 前几天刚投资40亿美元帮助 $COHR 和 $LITE 扩大规模，且共封装光学(CPO)等技术预计将在2028年放量。 这就是为什么所有光子学股票每天上涨10%，因为机构正在抢跑并重新配置仓位。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI. Go long for next few years. $NVDA basically just invested $4B the other day to help $COHR and $LITE scale up and things like cpo are expected to ramp in 2028. This is why all the photonics stocks are going up 10% a day because institutions are frontrunning and repositioning.
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AXTI垄断光子学供应链，受益于AI建设，有望从25亿涨至200亿市值。
$AXTI 掌控着光子学（Photonics）AI 基础设施建设所需的供应链。其市值仅为 25 亿美元。 如果明年它的交易价格达到 200 亿美元或更高，我也不会感到惊讶。 $NVDA 今天展示了光子学在未来几年中的关键作用。如果 $AXTI 愿意，它可以在第二天对新合同涨价 500%，而来自 $LITE 或 $COHR 等公司都会为了锁定配额而欣然支付。 他们在日本的主要竞争对手受到了中国的出口管制，未来可能会面临产能紧张的局面。 我很乐意持有一个服务于万亿美元 AI 建设、市值 25 亿美元的垄断企业。
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$AXTI controls the supply chain needed for the AI buildout for photonics. At a $2.5B MC. I would not be surprised if it were trading at $20B or more next year. $NVDA today showed how critical photonics are for the next few years. If AXT wanted to AXT could price hike 500% the next day for new contracts and everyone from $LITE or $COHR would happily pay it to secure allocation. Their main competitor over in Japan got export controls by China and will likely be capacity strained in the future. I would happy sleep on a $2.5b monopoly for the trillion dollar AI buildout
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NVDA注资Lumentum，上游AXTI/IQE或成瓶颈。
在$NVDA达成$20亿交易后，所有人都在$540亿市值下抢购$LITE。等他们发现谁是Lumentum的上游瓶颈及供应商时再买吧。像$AXTI和可能的$IQE这样的公司可能还有很长的路要走。
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Everyone is rushing to buy $LITE at a $54B MC after the $NVDA $2B deal. Wait until they find out who the upstream bottlenecks and suppliers to Lumentum are. Companies like $AXTI and possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go. https://t.co/Hep3S6174M
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博主回顾去年研究，庆幸精准预判英伟达投资及光模块股表现。
@invspoter 如果我能帮上忙，我很高兴！ 不过很高兴我去年在研究论文中精准预判了这一点。$NVDA 最终投资了 $LITE 和 $COHR。然后 $AAOI 今年也大幅上涨。https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
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@invspoter I'm happy if I was able to help! Glad I got this part spot on from my thesis last year though. $NVDA ended up investing in both of $LITE and $COHR. Then $AAOI ended up popping off this year. https://t.co/gVDuPdkRrf
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光子学成AI新瓶颈，NVDA投资上游，AAOI等迎重估。
我去年确实抛出了一个光子学(CPO)的金矿。匿名者们，你们听了吗？ 从 $AXTI 到 $AAOI，所有相关标的在过去两个月都上涨了2-3倍。 $LITE 最终涨幅超过100%。 甚至 $COHR 和 $IQE 也接近翻倍。 $AAOI 正处于超级反弹中，鉴于其45亿美元的营收预期，很可能继续走高。 现在 $NVDA 正在投资这些相同的光子学公司，从 $LITE（$IQE 的供应商以及 $AXTI 对 $LITE 的供应关系）到 $COHR。 光子学是下一个存储领域，像 $AAOI 这样的公司看起来像是下一个 $SNDK。 最重要的是，对于许多上游供应商来说，行情才刚刚开始。
原推 ↗英文原文
I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year. Did you listen anon? Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI. $LITE ended up increasing 100%+. Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling. AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections. And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR. Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK. Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.
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NVDA投资LITE带动其供应商IQE股价大涨28%
@ryansfinance 所以 $NVDA 向 $LITE 投资 20 亿美元，$IQE 可能是最大的受益者，因为作为其外延晶圆(epiwafer)代工厂，他们是 $LITE 的主要供应商。我一直在想为什么 IQE 今天涨了 28%……这大概就是原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ryansfinance So $NVDA investing $2B into $LITE is probably the biggest beneficiary for $IQE since they're a massive $LITE supplier as their epiwafer foundry. I was wondering why IQE was up 28% today... This was probably the reason
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英伟达投资相干光，利好光子学供应链及相干光。
$NVDA 刚刚向 $COHR 投资 20 亿美元，用于先进激光器和光网络产品。这对 $AXTI（衬底供应商）、$AAOI 等其他光网络公司以及整个光子学供应链构成了极其强劲的利好。而最大的直接受益者无疑是 $COHR。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion into $COHR for advanced laser and optical networking products. This is an extremely bullish tailwind for $AXTI (substrate provider), other optical networking companies like $AAOI, and the entire photonics supply chain. And most of all the direct beneficiary is $COHR.
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英伟达投资Lumentum，利好光子学供应链及上游供应商。
$NVDA 刚刚投资 20 亿美元支持 Lumentum 的研发及美国新建晶圆厂。这对 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI、$IQE 等光子学股票是巨大的顺风。$IQE 今日上涨 28% 更合理了，因为它是 $LITE 的已知供应商。而 $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。该合作聚焦硅光子学、光互连及封装集成，惠及整个光子学供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility. This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others. $IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. The collaboration targets silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and package integration, which flows through the entire photonics supply chain.
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NOR Flash涨价潮确认，GB200单机架成本激增，推荐宏碁与华邦。
NOR Flash 会是继 HBM/DRAM 之后的下一个内存供应瓶颈吗？ 近期，MCU（微控制器）、NOR Flash、KGD（裸晶）封装存储以及功率器件的价格上涨了 10% 至 80%。 涉及涨价的公司名单包括： - 华润微 - 中芯国际 - 北京君正 - 戈麦斯微电子 - 盈佳芯 - 兆易创新 - 欧姆龙 - ADI - 英飞凌 所有这些公司都提高了价格。更具体地说，中国的兆易创新将 MCU 和 NOR Flash 的价格提高了 15%–50%，普冉半导体也提高了 NOR Flash 的价格。 这证实了此前关于 $NVDA GB200 NVL72 系统的预测，即每个机架的 NOR 内容成本已超过 600 美元，并可能开始上调至 900 美元（增加 50%）。 投资者通常喜欢听到涨价的声音，因此对于相关敞口： - 宏碁半导体 (YTD: +153%) - 华邦电子 (YTD: +34.91%) 是该板块的两个最佳标的。 因为它们各自拥有 33-35% 的市场份额，尽管 TAM（总可寻址市场）较小。英飞凌等其他公司对于纯主题投资来说只是杯水车薪。
原推 ↗英文原文
Is NOR Flash the next memory supply squeeze from HBM/DRAM? Recently 10% to 80% hikes were made to: MCUs, NOR Flash, KGD package storage, and power devices recently. The list of companies spanning: - China Resources Microelectronics - SMIC Semiconductor - Belling - Goke Microelectronics - Yingjixin - Maxscend - Omron - ADI - Infineon have all increased prices. More specifically, China's Cmsemicon raised MCU and NOR Flash prices by 15%–50% and Puya Semiconductor raised NOR Flash prices. This helped confirm earlier projections regarding $NVDA GB200 NVL72 systems that NOR content per rack already exceeds $600 and could start hiking rates to $900 (+50% increase). Investors usually like to hear the sound of price hikes so for exposure: - Macronix (YTD: +153%) - Winbond (YTD: +34.91%) are the two best exposures for the segment. Since they both hold 33-35% of market share each, though a smaller TAM. Infineon and others look to a drop in the bucket for pure play exposure.
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CRWV大跌验证看空逻辑，警示新云债务风险差异。
这条推文经得起时间考验，$CRWV 过去一个月下跌约 28%。 我觉得最好的空头其实是多头投资者或波段交易者。 如果你看到 Coreweave 或 $CRCL 在 200 美元时的危险信号，与其回避，不如反向操作。 话虽如此，$NBIS 等其他股票正随着板块被算法性打压。 我一次又一次地注意到，并非所有新云服务商(Neoclouds)都是一样的。 - 一家新云服务商可能有数十亿美元的年度债务利息，损害自由现金流(FCF) - 另一家则可能没有……
原推 ↗英文原文
This aged well, $CRWV down ~28% in the past month. I feel like the best bears would actually be long investors or swing traders. If you see red flags, with Coreweave or $CRCL at $200, can always play the other direction instead of avoiding it. That being said, $NBIS and others have been being brought down algorithmically with the sector I’ve noticed this again and again, not all Neoclouds are built the same. - One Neocloud might have billions in yearly debt interest hurting FCF - The other Neocloud might not…
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只要战争不在本土，历史数据显示其对美股整体长期利好。
你们这些匿名者都意识到战争对股市是利好吧？ 经验法则是： 只要战争不在你的领土上，就是利好。 X 上的散户正在“恐慌性抛售，从 $NVDA 到 $HOOD 全卖，完蛋了”，紧随美国/以色列在伊朗强行政权更迭之后。 但机构大多已经抢跑，正如我们在实际事件发生前看到的大型国防+石油板块上涨（以及任何高贝塔资产的抛售）。 自二战以来，在约 73% 的武装冲突中，美国股市在侵略行为发生一年后都产生了正收益。 而且美国很可能通过此前接管委内瑞拉的石油储备，已经为任何石油波动做好了准备。 朝鲜战争（年化+18.7%）、二战（+16.9%）和海湾战争（+11.7%）期间的年化回报均高于和平时期平均水平。 2022 年 2 月 24 日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，标普 500 指数下跌超过 7%。 不久后市场反弹，标普指数交易水平高于入侵前，即使油价仍维持在每桶 100 美元以上。 伊朗和石油冲击对不同板块有不同影响，但总体而言大盘会上涨（短期下跌）。 总结：这显然是多方面的，不同冲突影响的板块程度不同。 但经验法则是：只要不在自家领土，战争就是利好。
原推 ↗英文原文
You all do realize War is bullish for markets right anon? General rule of thumb is: As long as it’s not in your territory, War is bullish. There’s the retail on X “panic sell everything from $NVDA to $HOOD it’s over” following US/Israel forcing a regime change in Iran. But institutions have largely frontran it as seen with the rise of big defense + oil sectors (and selloff of anything high beta) leading up to the actual event. U.S. stocks generated positive performance one year after an act of aggression in roughly 73% of armed conflicts since WWII. And it’s likely the US already prepared for any Oil volatility by taking over Venezuela earlier for oil reserves. Annualized returns during the Korean War (+18.7%), WWII (+16.9%), and the Gulf War (+11.7%) all beat peacetime averages. After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the S&P 500 index fell more than 7%. Shortly after, markets rebounded and the S&P was trading at a level higher than before the invasion, even as the price of oil remained elevated above $100 a barrel. There’s different implications on different sectors with Iran and Oil impacts, but generally markets as a whole go up (short term down). TLDR: It’s obviously multifaceted and more sectors are impacted than others depending on the conflict. But rule of thumb is War is bullish, as long as long as it’s not on your own territory.
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博主讽刺对方混淆韩国指数与美股逻辑，类比拉高出货谬误。
@xpirozhkov 哈哈……你难道没意识到这是韩国股市指数吗？ 这就像说“如果你用 $SPY 买入美国股市指数，因为 $NVDA 推动其年初至今上涨，他们只是想拉高出货（pump their bags）”一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
@xpirozhkov lol… you do realize this is South Korea’s stock index right? It’s like saying “They’re just trying to pump their bags if you buy the US stock index with $SPY since it’s up YTD off $NVDA”
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分享AXTI持仓两月涨283%，并提及NVDA财报后的高飞股抛售。
@AvivaMarket 也许是因为即便算上今天的跌幅，本月涨幅也已达 102%？ 我持有的 $AXTI 仓位在过去两个月仍上涨了 283%。 除了健康的回调外，在 $NVDA 财报发布后，许多高飞股出现了抛售。 https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
原推 ↗英文原文
@AvivaMarket Maybe because it just went up 102% this month even accounting for the drop today? Still up 283% in the last two months on one of my $AXTI positions. Healthy correction aside there was a selloff in a lot of high flying names after $NVDA earnings. https://t.co/lzX2ZA2ewu
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博主复盘YTD 477%收益，归功于AI供应链瓶颈研究与亚盘资金轮动策略。
年初至今在 $NVDA 财报后表现： 477.27%。 大部分收益源于我过去几个月的研究： 例如从近期上涨数百倍的 $AXTI 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈中获利。 或者利用 Jane Street 因 SK 海力士/三星的隐含波动率(IV) Vega 扩张而在 $EWY 上的交易获利。 许多其他交易在短期内也获得了百分之几十甚至数百%的回报。 比如 $XLU 一周上涨 3%，以及 $MU 和 $SNDK 史诗级的方向性反弹。 人们通常喜欢看这样的最终结果，这确实最引人注目。 但当前收益的大部分基础早在几个月前就已奠定，从对 $LITE 的 Google BOM 分析，到去年对 Unimicron、Nittobo 甚至 $TSM 的半导体供应链瓶颈研究。 即使现在，我也在为未来播种，例如对电力/电网板块 $XLU 的分析，或理解上风险较高但作为光子学供应链中 $LITE 供应商的 $IQE。 我通常遵循以下流程： > 研究帖子（初始论点） > 将其转化为实际想法和交易 > 对 Alpha 进行后续尽职调查（例如 SMM InP 定价） > 当行情上涨时庆祝。 跨行业，且通常关注有动量的板块。 而不是死守单一个股，或只做分析而不交易。 我认为人们可能觉得这种风格令人耳目一新。 我认为最近我只是在利用两个不同的趋势： 1. 聚焦 AI 供应链中的活跃瓶颈 - 存储：$SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士、三星、$SIMO - 光子学：$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI 和 Yamamura - 电力电网：$XLU - 先进封装/良率：$AMKR、$ONTO、$CAMT、$KLIC、$FORM 和 $AEHR 2. 然后聚焦资金轮动至台湾、日本、韩国。 基本上上周资金轮动是从美国/中国 -> 韩国、台湾、日本。 像 $EWJ 这样的 ETF 或 Nanya Plastics 等个股正在起飞。 - 台湾股票基金最近单周净流入超过 10 亿美元，这是几个月来首次 - 对于日本：高盛图表显示 +0.37 的标准差净买入 - 对于韩国，外国人在 2 月上半月净买入约 1.37 万亿韩元（约 10 亿美元） 而高盛图表显示北美空头活动令人震惊的 -1.52 标准差。 所以这可能是我对 $HOOD 投资者因缺乏亚洲股票敞口而表现不佳的假设原因。 原因是超大规模云厂商的资本支出交易流向供应链中的亚洲国家（例如，一些分析师预测 SK 海力士 2027 年远期市盈率仅为 2.2，这很荒谬）-> 机构跟随资金流进行资本轮动。 至于一些反思，我真惊讶于如今有多少人阅读我的帖子，这真的让我感到谦卑！ 我通常不太庆祝（去年我只做过一次，当时是 1 年回报 600%+），但我惊讶于今年我在时机把握和论点正确率上的好运。 我并不完美，我确实会犯一些错误，但更重要的是我每天绿色的日子多于红色的。 但感谢大家，我在两三个月内从小账户增长到了 83K！
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date post $NVDA earnings: 477.27%. Majority of the gains are the result of the research I've done the past few months: From the $AXTI's InP chokepoint that went up few hundred percent recently. or profiting off Jane Street from $EWY IV vega expansion for Sk Hynix/Samsung. Many others were tens of % or hundreds of percent returns each in a short timeframe. Like $XLU going up 3% in a week to the epic directional rally of $MU and $SNDK. I think people just like to see the end results like this, which is understandably the most eye-catching. But most of the groundwork for the current returns was laid out months ago from $LITE Google BOM analysis to semi supply chain bottlenecks from Unimicron, Nittobo, and even $TSM last year. Even now I’m planting the seeds for the future with analysis on $XLU for the power/grid sector, or understandably higher risk companies like $IQE as a $LITE supplier for the photonics supply chains. I typically shift from: > Research Posts (Initial thesis post) > Map that into actual ideas + trades > Follow-Up DDs on Alpha (eg. SMM InP pricing) > celebrate when things go up. cross-industry, and typically on sectors with momentum. Rather than sticking single stocks, or just analysis only (instead of trading). And I think people might have found this style refreshing. I think recently, I’m is just capitalizing on two different trends: 1. Focusing on active bottlenecks in AI supply chains - Memory like $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, $SIMO - Photonics like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, and Yamamura - Power Grid like $XLU - Advanced Packaging/Yields - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, $FORM, and $AEHR 2. Then focusing on Capital Rotation into Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Basically past week capital rotation was rotating from US/China -> Korea, Taiwan, Japan. ETFs like $EWJ or individual stocks from Nanya Plastics have been taking off. - Taiwan Equity Funds recently took in over $1 billion in a single week for the first time in months - For Japan: GS chart's +0.37 long buying - For Korea, foreigners were net buyers of roughly 1.37 trillion won (~$1 billion USD) in the first half of February While GS chart shows a staggering -1.52 SD in short activity for North America. So that's probably my assumption on why $HOOD investors haven't been doing too well from a lack of Asian equity exposure. The reason being Hyperscaler capex trade flows into Asian countries in the supply chains (eg. Some analysts projected Sk Hynix to have 2.2 2027 fwd p/e, which is absurd) -> institutions following the flow with capital rotation. As for some reflection, I'm genuinely surprised by how many people read my posts nowadays and it’s really humbling! I don’t really celebrate this much (last year I only did one time with a 600%+ 1Y return) but I’m amazed by how lucky I am this year with timing and getting a lot my thesis right. I’m not perfect, I do get a few things wrong, but what’s more important is I get more green than red every day. But thanks to everyone, I grew from a little account to 83K in like two or three months!
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勿仅凭短期图表判断，应关注基本面，当前仅为健康回调。
看看财报、资本支出(capex)预测和运营数据，我不明白你仅凭 $SPY 的图表和 $NVDA 开盘后几小时的走势是如何得出所有结论的。某处总会有牛市，尤其是在亚洲市场/超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的资本支出流向中。这只是一次健康的回调。如果你感到不安，也许这表明你投资组合中公司的权重配置有误。
原推 ↗英文原文
Look at earnings, capex projections, and operational data, I'm not sure how you got all of that just by looking at the chart of $SPY and few hour movement from $NVDA at open. There's always a bull market somewhere, especially within Asian markets/hyperscaler capex flows. This is just a healthy correction. If you're uncomfortable, maybe it's an indicator weightings of companies in your portfolio is wrong.
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点评AEHR获AI量产订单及NVDA引发的市场波动。
我并没有交易它，但它的波动性确实很大。考虑到 $NVDA 引发了全面的抛售，你的入场时机把握得很好。至于 $AEHR，他们终于度过了 $POET 的研发阶段，今年开始获得超大规模云服务商/AI 公司的量产订单。所以想简单写一下关于它的分析。
原推 ↗英文原文
I haven't been trading it, but it's really volatile. You did time it well considering $NVDA caused a selloff across the board. As for, $AEHR they've finally gotten past that $POET R&D stage and hitting hyperscaler/AI company production orders this year. So just wanted to do a tiny write-up about it.
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解析$AEHR作为AI芯片热测试瓶颈解决者，正从研发转向量产，受益于巨头资本开支周期。
更简明的 $AEHR 概览 - 11 亿美元（无行话）。这是我的一个多头持仓： 在 AI 领域，散热是一个已知的瓶颈。 随着新一代 $NVDA 或 $AMD 类型的芯片发热量增加，如果一颗芯片熔毁，将是灾难性的。 因此科技巨头 -> 对每一颗芯片进行热应力测试，以查看其是否会在现场过早失效。 $AEHR 出售用于测试这些芯片的机器。 去年，他们类似于 $POET（处于预认证/测试阶段） -> 但现在他们已经通过了认证。 我们正看到从研发到大规模生产的拐点： 今天： -> $AEHR 获得 1400 万美元的芯片老化系统（wafer level）订单，以帮助扩大芯片生产。 但这台 1400 万美元的机器每周只能处理有限数量的晶圆。 -> 随着该 AI 客户扩大规模，他们将物理上耗尽热测试吞吐量。 因此，如果他们喜欢 $AEHR，就会购买更多，从而推动收入增长。 他们还有一个独立的产品线（Sonoma），用于测试封装后的芯片。 超大规模云服务商一直在订购此产品，因此有两个不同的测试阶段，两条收入来源。 管理层指引 2026 年下半年新增订单为 6000 万至 8000 万美元（这是巨大的增长）。 你可以参考 $TER（510 亿美元）或爱德万测试（约 1250 亿美元）来看看这类公司能有多大。 他们还在其他数据中心层进行测试： - 他们正在与 NAND Flash 内存供应商合作 - 硅光子学 我尽量去除了大部分技术行话，以便大多数人更容易理解，但这确实是一个微妙/技术性的领域。 $AEHR 具有潜力，因为它在多年的研发和认证后，现在开始实现真实规模的量产。 我们正处于一个巨大的资本支出周期中（想想 $ASML 的周期，人们为建设订购大量机器）。
原推 ↗英文原文
A simpler overview of $AEHR - $1.1B (without the jargon). One of my long positions: With AI, thermal is a known bottleneck. With new gen $NVDA or $AMD type chips that gets hot, if one chip melts down, it's a disaster. So tech giants -> every single chip stress tested with heat to see if it fails prematurely in the field. $AEHR sells the machines that does the testing of these chips. Last year, they were like $POET (pre-qualification/test phase) -> but now they've passed. We're seeing that inflection from R&D to mass production: Today: -> $14M order for $AEHR burn-in systems to help scale chip production (wafer level) But that $14M machine order can only handle a finite number of wafers per week. -> As this AI customer scales up, they will physically run out of thermal testing throughput. so they buy more if they like $AEHR, and this ramps up revenue. They also have a separate product line (Sonoma) for testing chips after they're packaged. Hyperscalers have been ordering this, so two different testing stages, two revenue streams. Management guided for a massive second half 2026 $60M to $80M in new bookings (which is big growth). You can look at $TER ($51B) or Advantest (~$125B) to see the ceiling of how big a lot of these companies can get. They also do testing across other data center layers too: - So they're working with NAND Flash memory suppliers - Silicon photonics Tried to strip out as much technical jargon as possible so it's more understandable to majority, but it's a very nuanced/technical field. $AEHR has potential as it's now scaling up real-volume after years of R&D and qualification. And we're sitting in an enormous capex cycle (think $ASML cycles, where people order a lot of machines for the buildout).
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NVDA回调属健康调整，AI投资核心仍看台积电与云厂商资本开支。
我目前只是持有仓位，仍在四处寻找机会。发这条推文只是不想让大家因为 $NVDA 下跌 5% 就觉得世界末日到了。这是健康的回调，在我看来，AI 交易中最重要的是关注 $TSM 和超大规模云服务商( Hyperscaler )的资本支出(capex)，而这些数据我们都有了。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm just sitting on positions, still shopping around. Just wanted to make a post so people don't think the world is over because $NVDA dropped 5%. Healthy correction, most important thing to look out for with the AI trade is $TSM / Hyperscaler capex IMO and we already have those.
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英伟达财报虽超预期但股价跌，长期看AI加速，应关注云厂商资本开支。
$NVDA 远超预期，预计营收780亿美元，高于预期的720亿美元。 该股在财报发布后下跌4.82%。 这是一个有争议的观点，但在我看来，英伟达的财报是一个部分滞后指标。 最需要关注的是超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出(Capex)预测以及 $TSM 的预测。 市场倾向于认为 $SNDK 等存储芯片、来自 $TSM 的半导体、电力/电网等其他板块，将主要依据上述两项指标涨跌，因为它们代表了整个人工智能(AI)行业。特别是随着从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN 的超大规模云服务商纷纷加速构建其专用集成电路(ASIC)（除英伟达外）。 英伟达大幅超预期仅仅是已实现的确认，表明人工智能交易可能会加速。 短期流动性和做市商(MM)头寸影响周度价格，但长期来看，情况似乎将进一步加速。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA blows away expectations, with $78B in revenue projected vs. $72B. The stock dropped 4.82% on the earnings. Controversial opinion but Nvidia earnings is a partially lagging indicator to me. The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections. Markets like $SNDK in memory, semis from $TSM, power/grid and others are likely to rise/fall based on those two in specific as they represent the entire AI sector as a whole. Especially as hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN rush out to build their on ASICs (apart from Nvidia) Nvidia beating by a wide margin is just realized confirmation that the AI trade is likely to accelerate. Short term liquidity and MM positioning affect weekly prices, but long term, things look to accelerate even further.
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分享 $NVDA 投资者从20万本金获利830万的案例，强调选对赢家的重要性。
真令人惊叹，竟然有人通过 $NVDA 获得了 $830 万 的收益。他们的初始投资：约 $20 万。如果你选对了赢家，市场可以轻松改变人生并造就新百万富翁。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's really amazing that there's people out there with $8.3M gains on $NVDA. Their initial investment: ~$200K. Markets can easily change lives and mint new millionaires if you choose the right winner. https://t.co/0HL93Fd6NJ
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电力成美国AI最大瓶颈，看好$XLU因降息及基建资本支出重估。
美国AI最大的瓶颈： 电力与电网容量。 最近，美国各大AI公司的CEO都反复强调这一点。 以下是从$MSFT到$AMZN的名单： 黄仁勋（$NVDA）：“在最底层：能源。中国的能源总量是我们的两倍，而我们的经济体量比他们大。这对我来说毫无道理……没有能源，你就无法发展任何新产业。”（CSIS活动） 埃隆·马斯克（$TSLA / xAI）：“价值数十亿美元的最先进AI硬件。处于闲置状态。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为电力不足，无法运行它们。”（最近播客） 山姆·阿尔特曼（OpenAI）：“满足全球AI需求最终需要数百吉瓦的电力。谁控制了电力，谁就控制了AI价值链。”（最近采访） 安迪·贾西（$AMZN）：“[我们]最大的单一制约因素是电力。我不相信我们在几个季度内就能完全解决我们所需的需求容量。”（亚马逊财报电话会议） 萨提亚·纳德拉（$MSFT）：“我们现在面临的最大问题不是算力过剩，而是电力。也就是能否在靠近电力的地方快速完成建设。如果你做不到，你可能会有一堆无法插电使用的芯片库存。”（BG2 Pod） 每一位美国AI实验室的CEO都在告诉你美国人工智能的主要瓶颈是什么： 发电和扩大电网。 因此，我们可能会看到$XLU中无聊的公用事业和电力生产商因为以下原因被强烈重估： 1. AI推理+训练极端扩张以及对GW级数据中心的需求。 2. 超大规模云厂商向该领域投入极端资本支出。 3. 降息顺风。 最重要的是： 作为一个国家，美国必须重建其电网以赢得地缘政治军备竞赛。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 如果我要在1年内将$10万变成$100万。 我会选择：$XLU 2年期虚值看涨期权 2026年是现代历史上市场首次同时具备： - 利率下降 - AI推理+建设 通过映射，XLU有潜在~40%的涨幅（虚值期权1000%+）。 这是我的宏观论点： 1. 降息 当美联储在不引发衰退的情况下降息时，公用事业债务成本降低，机构将低收益现金转向公用事业股息。 这导致估值倍数立即扩张： 1995年：标普公用事业板块在1995年回报+31.3%，1996年再+12.1% - 累计回报~47% 2019年中周期降息：结果：XLU在那一年产生了+25.9%的总回报 标准的软着陆降息周期自然映射到25%到30%的基准回报。而我们要进入2026年的新降息周期。 2. 基础设施超级周期资本支出 基础设施资本支出为该板块带来复合盈利增长。继2000年代初之后，公用事业进入了一个巨大的资本支出周期以现代化老化的电网基础设施。 因为他们不断支出并扩大其保证费率基数，XLU在2004年回报+23.5%，2005年+16.3%，2006年+20.8%，2007年+18.4%。 然而这一次： 2026年8000多亿美元的AI建设使得2004年的电网现代化看起来像零钱。 所以你有来自#1降息的估值倍数扩张（+15%到+20%）。来自#2资本支出历史数据的每股收益增长（+18%到+20%）。仅从历史教训来看。 但2026年是历史上AI使用最独特的时刻。 仅从我自己的模型预测来看，所有以前的估计可能都因AI极端扩张而错误（例如DOE/LBNL预测）： 超大规模云厂商资本支出流入（支出）（亚马逊、微软、Meta、谷歌、甲骨文）到数据中心估计： 2024年：2200亿美元 2025年：3500亿美元 2026年：5500亿美元 2027年：8000亿美元 2028年：1.2万亿美元（4年增长：+445%） 美国数据中心电力使用： 2024年：190 TWh 2025年：280 TWh 2026年：430 TWh 2027年：650 TWh 2028年：980 TWh（4年增长：+415%） AI消耗的总美国电力百分比： 2024年：美国电网的4.5% 2025年：6.6% 2026年：8.2-10.2% 2027年：13.4-15.4% 2028年：21.3-23.3% 劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室和能源部似乎在AI使用上偏离了（他们预测到2028年约为12%） 物理电网容量需求： 2024年：18 GW 2025年：35 GW 2026年：65 GW 2027年：105 GW 2028年：160 GW 基本上你可以看到2026年到2028年是拐点，而2024-2025年是爬坡的缓慢年份。 然后是独立公司的“绝望溢价”。因为电网容量已售罄，科技巨头向公用事业支付巨额溢价以插队。例如PJM互联（弗吉尼亚“数据中心巷”），容量价格从2024年的每兆瓦日28.92美元飙升至2026/2027年令人难以置信的329.17美元。 $VST或Constellation是ETF中独立电力生产商的大权重。 纵观全局，你可以看到从2026年（现在）到2028年的极端扩张，以及用于建设基础设施的极端资本支出，与往年相比。 2026年是现代市场历史上第一次所有因素同时为无聊的电网/电力板块发力，AI是最大的顺风。 正如埃隆所引用的：“价值数十亿美元的最先进硬件。处于闲置状态。不是因为芯片不工作。而是因为电力不足，无法运行它们”。 再次强调，2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值，由于AI和做市商已将历史隐含波动率（极度平坦~14%-16%）计入虚值看涨期权。 我们看到AI推理（超出之前的测量）以及训练（根据OpenAI今天的报告）的爆发。 所以地球上最无聊的板块（电力/电网），可能会因为超大规模云厂商/政府支出用于电网改进 -> AI推理/训练的极端电力消耗 -> 降息和其他因素，成为主要反弹的起点。 这只是我的个人论点，期权带有风险并放大下行风险。这些也是我自己的预测，不确定是否会超过或低于它们。 但基本上： 2026年是一个绝对的历史异常值。 美国的新瓶颈是电力。 来自AI的极端需求，极端资本支出，降息： $XLU看起来是最好的暴露交易。 时间会证明这是否正确与否。
原推 ↗英文原文
The biggest United States AI bottleneck: Power and Grid Capacity. This has been echoed by the CEOs of every major US AI company recently. Here's the list from $MSFT to $AMZN: Jensen Huang ( $NVDA ): "At the lowest level: energy. China has twice the amount of energy we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. It makes no sense to me... There are no new industries you can grow without energy." (CSIS event) Elon Musk ( $TSLA / xAI): "Billions of dollars of the most advanced AI hardware ever built. Sitting dark. Not because the chips don’t work. Because there isn’t enough electricity to run them." (Recent Podcast) Sam Altman (OpenAI): "Meeting global AI demand will eventually require hundreds of gigawatts of power. Whoever controls power controls the AI value chain." (Recent Interview) Andy Jassy ( $AMZN ): "[Our] single biggest constraint is power. I don't believe that we will have fully resolved the amount of capacity we need for the demand that we have in a couple of quarters." (Amazon Earnings Call) Satya Nadella ( $MSFT ): "The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's power. It's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough close to power. So, if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in." (BG2 Pod) You have every single CEO of American AI labs telling you what the major bottlenecks are for US Artificial Intelligence: Generating the Energy, and expanding the Grid. So, we might see boring utilities and power producers in $XLU be strongly re-rated because of: 1. AI inference + training extreme ramp and demand for GW-scale DCs. 2. Hyperscaler extreme capex pouring into the sector. 3. Rate Cut tailwinds. And most of all. That fact that: The United States as a country has to rebuild its grid to win a geopolitical arms race.
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AI从训练转向推理，电网成新瓶颈，电力股或迎起飞。
好问题！答案是宏观/芯片。2023-2024年AI起步时，美联储将利率大幅上调至5%+。公用事业股通常类似债券替代品，因为基建背负大量债务。当时最佳选择是$NVDA，因为硅/芯片短缺。2023年市场不太关心电网电力，因为服务器尚未联网。但现在Mag7囤积的数百万芯片终于开始运行。虽然$TSM仍是瓶颈，但美国电网可能是最大瓶颈之一。此外，我们从训练（约占AI电力预期的10-15%）转向推理，后者由数十亿人24/7使用。因此，在去年降息、今年进一步降息以及前所未有的推理扩张后，现在可能是电力/电网起飞的时候。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great question! Answer to that is macro/chips. 2023, 2024 when AI first started taking off, fed was jacking rates up to 5%+. Utilities are often kinda like bond proxies since they carry a lot of debt for infra buildout. Best play then was $NVDA since silicon/chips were in shortage. Market didnt really care about grid power back in 2023 because servers weren' connected. But now there's millions of chips hoarded by mag7 that are finally getting turned on. So while $TSM is still a bottleneck, US power grid is likely one of the biggest ones. Also we've shifted from training (which was like 10-15% of AI power expectancy) into inference, which just runs 24/7 used by billions of people. So after rate cuts last year, more this year, and just unprecedented inference expansion, probably now is the time for power/grid to take off.
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超大规模云厂商负债投入AI基建，资金流向英伟达等上游供应商。
@LuffyDDK 他们真的在负债 lol 世界上最富有的公司正在为人工智能基础设施建设而负债。 尽管拥有数百亿美元的净利润，从 $AMZN 到 $GOOGL 的公司都大幅增加了资本支出(capex)： 以至于部分公司预计将在 2026 年出现净现金流出。 以下是结果及受益者： 亚马逊 ( $AMZN ) 2025: +460 亿美元 2026 (预估): +110 亿美元 Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025: +803 亿美元 2026 (预估): +130 亿美元 Meta Platforms ( $META ) - 净债务(Net Debt) 2025: +229 亿美元 2026 (预估): -70 亿美元 (预计转为净债务) 微软 ( $MSFT ) 2025: +492 亿美元 2026 (预估): +590 亿美元 甲骨文 ( $ORCL ) 2025: -980 亿美元 (净债务) 2026 (预估): -1150 亿美元 微软似乎处于最安全的位置。虽然亚马逊和谷歌主要依靠运营收入为人工智能基础设施建设提供资金。 然而，巨大的现金流缓冲已消失。甲骨文和 Meta 似乎正在通过负债来推动建设，尽管 $META 实现了惊人的运营收入数字。 现在，资金流向哪里？ 运营收入预测： 1. $NVDA - 美国 1350 亿 -> 1865 亿 -> 2401 亿美元运营收入 2. 三星 - 韩国 ~302 亿 -> ~1700 亿 -> ~2267 亿美元 3. SK 海力士 - 韩国 ~327 亿 -> ~1240 亿 -> ~1610 亿美元 4. $TSM - 台湾 ~622 亿 -> ~863 亿 - ~1033 亿 – 1053 亿美元 5. $AVGO - 美国 ~415 亿 -> ~628 亿-651 亿 - ~847 亿-933 亿美元 当然，这些是基于分析师预测的粗略估计。 然而，从总体趋势来看，这看起来像是一种杠杆式赌注，即人工智能基础设施建设完成后将带来自由现金流(FCF)的分红回报。 但明显的赢家似乎是英伟达、三星、SK 海力士、博通和台积电。 随着超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)中部分公司陷入债务，他们将资产负债表转移给这些供应商，期望从人工智能支出中获得长期投资回报率(ROI)。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LuffyDDK They literally are going into debt lol https://t.co/A4KDf93pYk
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AXTI与住友垄断InP衬底，成AI光子化关键瓶颈。
你听劝了吗，匿名者？- $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： 警告：整个AI行业可能会受制于两家公司的瓶颈： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来的$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于磷化铟(InP)的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用磷化铟(InP)制造用于800G/1.6T光收发器的电吸收调制激光器(EML)、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 如果没有磷化铟(InP)衬底，供应链就会瘫痪。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球磷化铟(InP)衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光模块（TPU集群等） - 光收发器（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（Nvidia未来的共封装光学(CPO)和Intel/Broadcom硅光子学(SiPh)引擎使用磷化铟(InP)连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友电工(Sumitomo)（估计~30%） - JX日矿（估计10-15%） 就这些。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电工+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，磷化铟(InP)衬底可能会与高带宽内存(HMB)一起成为最大的瓶颈之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Did you listen anon? - $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO
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SIMO Q1异常低但全年看涨，NVDA采用其DPU提供底部支撑。
@canbilgeyilmaz $SIMO 在财报电话会议上表示，第一季度是2026年的最低点，这属于异常现象，但看来全年剩余时间将实现超预期并回升。 此外，随着 $NVDA 显然将采用其 Bluefield DPU（数据处理器单元），其总可寻址市场(TAM)的扩张也为其提供了良好的底部支撑。
原推 ↗英文原文
@canbilgeyilmaz $SIMO stated on earnings call that Q1 is lowest of 2026, which is an anomaly, but it looks like beat and rise for rest of the year. They also have a nice floor from TAM expansion with $NVDA apparently going to their bluefield DPUs?
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买入$SIMO，看好其NAND控制器双寡头地位及AI存储市场扩张。
$SIMO 作为 NAND 敞口是另一个我今天建仓的交易思路。 SIMO 在 merchant controllers（独立控制器）领域与 Phison 形成事实上的双寡头垄断，主要客户包括： - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC 等。 - 营收：2025年Q4达到2.785亿美元（同比+46%，环比+15%）。 - 毛利率：~49.2% - 净利润：~4770万美元（同比+107%）。 - 净现金：2.771亿美元，无债务。 但管理层宣布2026年将是公司历史上营收最高的一年。 他们指引2026年Q1营收在2.92亿-3.06亿美元之间，该季度同比增长率为+76%-84%。 他们也开始向一家“领先的AI GPU制造商”（可能是 $NVDA）出货企业级启动盘，这扩大了其 TAM（总可服务市场）。 随着内存制造商转向 HBM，他们基本上将部分 SSD 控制器领域（如移动/消费级）外包，因此现在相当一部分独家来自 Silicon Motion。 因此，你拥有一家盈利、无债、毛利率约50%的公司，从 NAND 体积需求中获利，同时将其 TAM 扩展到高毛利的 Nvidia 和 AI 企业存储管道。 虽然它并不直接从所有 NAND 涨价中获利（但可以自行提价），但这感觉像是内存领域一个相当不对称的顺风/后门玩法。 在45.6亿美元市值和低于20倍远期市盈率（假设12亿美元营收/6.5美元每股收益）下，入场稍晚。但鉴于 TAM 扩展和内存超级周期，上行空间似乎很有吸引力。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIMO for NAND exposure is another trade idea that I took positions in today. SIMO operates effectively as a duopoly (alongside Phison) for merchant controllers and supplies basically: - Samsung - SK Hynix - $MU - $WDC - Kioxia - YMTC, and others. - Revenue: Q4 2025 reached $278.5 million (+46% yoy and +15% qoq). - Gross Margins: ~49.2% - Net Income: ~$47.7 million (up 107% YoY). - Net Cash: $277.1 million, no debt. But, management announced 2026 will be the highest revenue year in the company’s history. They guided Q1 2026 revenue to between $292m-$306m, which is +76%-84% YoY growth rate for the quarter. They also started shipments to a "Leading AI GPU maker" likely $NVDA for enterprise boot drives, which is TAM expansion. Memory makers basically outsourcing parts of the SSD controller spaces (eg. mobile/consumer) as they shift to HBM so now quite a bit is sourced exclusively from Silicon Motion. So you have a profitable, debt-free company with ~50% gross margins profiting off of NAND volume demand, while expanding its TAM into high-margin Nvidia and AI enterprise storage pipelines. While it doesn't exactly profit from all the NAND hikes (but can do price hikes of its own), it feels like a pretty asymmetrical tailwind/backdoor plays for memory. At a $4.56B MC and under 20x forward earnings (assuming, $1.2B rev/$6.5 EPS), it's a little later to the game. But upside seems compelling given TAM expansion and the memory supercycle.
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因英伟达入股，开始关注诺科，暂无明确观点。
@ak_dfranco 由于我对该公司了解不够，目前对 $NOK 尚无方向性观点。但在 $NVDA 入股后，我确实正在关注它。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ak_dfranco No directional opinion yet on $NOK since I don’t know enough about the company. But definitely taking a look after $NVDA took a stake.
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看好$RPI在AI边缘计算中的早期势头及市场机会，决定顺势参与。
谢谢，$RPI 目前捕捉到了早期的势头。特别是随着 OpenClaw 的轻量级版本（如 picoclaw/nanoclaw）的出现。我们正目睹总可寻址市场(TAM)的巨大扩张，类似于 $NVDA 从游戏 GPU 向 AI GPU 转型时的场景。但在上游更广泛的内存供应受限背景下，执行力才是真正捕获该 TAM 的关键。我不确定这会演变成短期的病毒式潮流，还是在一年后在树莓派上部署 AI 编排(AI Orchestration)仍将是标准做法。但我看到了市场机会，所以我会顺势而为，看看事态如何发展。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thank you, $RPI has captured the early momentum right now. Especially with lighter OpenClaw versions like picoclaw/nanoclaw. We're seeing a massive TAM expansion like when $NVDA transitioned from GPUs for gaming to GPUs for AI. But execution is what matters the most to actually capture that TAM while there's broader memory supply constraints upstream. No clue how this turns out whether it's a short term viral trend or if deploying AI orchestration on Raspberry Pi remains the standard 1 year out. But I see the market opportunity, so I'm along for the ride to see where it goes.
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树莓派因AI智能体部署需求激增，类比英伟达转型逻辑，市值潜力巨大。
树莓派（$RPI）又上涨了29%。 如果你在思考估值问题： $NVDA 从面向游戏玩家的GPU转型为面向AI推理/训练的GPU，市值从10亿美元重估至4.4万亿美元。 $RPI 从面向教育的廉价硬件，转型为AI智能体（与Apple Mac Mini一起）的标准配置。 我并非说它会像英伟达一样，但确实存在平行之处。 现在大家都在大量购买树莓派用于AI智能体相关部署，例如OpenClaw或Picoclaw。未来可能会有许多变种出现，比如$META Manus。 总可寻址市场（TAM）从人们购买1-2台的教育市场，转变为“尽可能多买”以本地部署AI智能体的市场。 目前市值为10.2亿美元。前途无量。
原推 ↗英文原文
Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) is now up another 29%. If you're wondering about valuation: $NVDA went from GPUs for gamers into GPUs for AI inference/training. And re-rated to a $4.4T MC from $1B. $RPI went from cheap hardware for education, into the standard for AI agents (alongside Apple Mac Mini). Not saying it's going to be the same as Nvidia, but there's certainly parallels. Now everyone is mass-buying Raspberry Pis for AI agent related deployments, such as OpenClaw or Picoclaw. In the future, there will likely be many variants to come, such as $META Manus. The TAM went from education where people bought 1 or 2 to "buy-as-much-as-you-can" for deploying AI agents locally. The marketcap is $1.02B now. Sky is the limit.
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树莓派因AI代理需求被囤积，类比英伟达GPU转型。
@glr_1990 树莓派(Raspberry Pi)从用于测试的1-2台教育设备，变成了被囤积用于AI代理部署。这让我想起$NVDA GPU从“游戏玩家”转向AI训练/推理的过程。
原推 ↗英文原文
@glr_1990 Raspberry Pi went from 1-2 educational devices for testing to hoarded for AI agent deployments. Reminds me of $NVDA GPUs going from "gamers" to AI training/inference.
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OpenClaw代理部署带动树莓派需求，$RPI有望因收入重估而反转。
市场似乎很喜爱 OpenClaw 树莓派囤货潮。 $RPI 昨日上涨 8.1% 后，今日再涨 19.34%。https://t.co/DRQTCjIlmQ （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 有趣的交易思路：做多 $RPI (Raspberry Pi) 理由：🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + 囤货。 大家一直在公开囤积 Apple Mac Mini，并长期持有苹果。但 $APPL 已经是市值 3.7 万亿美元+的公司，产品大规模购买对其影响微乎其微。 然而，树莓派是一家市值 5.4268 亿美元的公司。收入影响显著。 感觉市场尚未定价，因为我在 X 上几乎没看到关于该股票代码的提及（尽管有很多产品提及）。而且最近才开始有人囤积树莓派，因为它们比 500 美元以上的苹果产品便宜得多。它们也有自己的迷你 $NVDA CUDA-light 实用生态系统，人们正在使用。 事实证明，这些极其便宜的 20 美元或 200 美元的设备非常适合大规模部署隔离实例。 原因是为了 OpenClaw 编排（以免搞乱你的设备）-> 通过 API 与中央 LLM 交互。 以前人们只是出于爱好/教育目的购买 1 或 2 台，所以收入增长缓慢。但现在硅谷初创公司和个体据称正在购买数十或数百台这些设备，以运行并行的 OpenClaw 代理群集，或在 Reddit 等其他地方进行代理营销。 而且，不，有很多应用无法通过启动 AWS VPS 完成，所以人们在本地进行（自动化/AI 机器人有服务条款限制，所以公司设置自己的服务器）。 话虽如此，主要下行风险是： - 部分由基金会拥有，即使需求极度旺盛，他们可能也不会像 $SNDK 或 $MU 那样大幅提价 - 受 LPDDR4 组件等内存价格上涨影响 所以这不是一个主要仓位。 然而，展望未来，由于人们购买数十或数百台这些设备来运行 AI 代理，收入应该会增加。 资产负债表看起来也很干净，下行风险低： - 收入约 2.8 亿 - 3 亿美元 - 毛利润约 7500 万美元+ - 毛利率约 25% - 净利润：约 1000 万 - 1500 万美元 - 净现金：2800 万美元 分析师目前预测收入增长接近 14-17%。但如果需求涌入持续，如果囤货继续，我们可能会看到收入数字从 14% 的增长增加到适度的 48-55%。 消费者板块约占收入的 1/3，但 Openclaw + 变体的新购买无论如何都是重新评级的新催化剂。 特别是现在 Picoclaw 和压缩版 OpenClaw 变体能够在 20 美元的树莓派上运行，而不仅仅是树莓派 5。 但似乎人们忘记了树莓派也是一只公开交易的股票。股价 1 年下跌 56%，市值 5.4268 亿欧元跌至历史新低。所以这可能是反转的顺风。 此外，OpenClaw 成为基于树莓派的代理部署的长期催化剂的可能性也不为零。 TLDR：人们公开购买树莓派和苹果 Mac Mini 用于 Openclaw/Picoclaw，因此收入应从需求增加中受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets seem to love the OpenClaw Raspberry Pi hoarding. $RPI up another 19.34%, from yesterday's 8.1%. https://t.co/DRQTCjIlmQ
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看好$RPI，因AI智能体部署引发硬件囤货潮，营收有望超预期增长。
有趣的交易思路：做多 $RPI (树莓派) 理由：🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + 囤货潮。 大家都在公开囤积 Apple Mac Mini，并长期持有苹果股票。 但 $APPL 已经是市值 3.7 万亿美元以上的巨头。产品的大规模抢购对其影响微乎其微。 然而，$RPI 是一家市值仅 5.4268 亿美元的公司。 营收影响是实质性的。 感觉市场尚未对此定价，因为我在 X 上几乎没看到关于该股票代码的提及（尽管产品提及很多）。 而且最近才开始出现树莓派的囤货潮，因为它们比 500 美元以上的苹果产品便宜得多。它们还拥有人们使用的迷你 $NVDA CUDA 轻量级实用生态系统。 事实证明，这些极其便宜的 20 美元或 200 美元的设备非常适合大规模部署隔离实例。 原因是为了 OpenClaw 编排（以免搞乱你的设备）-> 通过 API 与中央 LLM 接口。 以前人们只是为了爱好/教育目的购买 1 或 2 台，所以营收增长缓慢。 但现在硅谷初创公司和个体据称正在购买数十或数百台这些设备，以运行并行的 OpenClaw 智能体集群，或在 Reddit 等其他地方进行智能体营销。 而且，不，有很多应用无法通过启动 AWS VPS 来完成，所以人们选择本地运行（自动化/AI 机器人存在服务条款限制，因此公司搭建自己的服务器）。 话虽如此，主要下行风险是： - 部分由基金会拥有，即使需求极度旺盛，他们可能也不会像 $SNDK 或 $MU 那样大幅提价 - 受 LPDDR4 组件等内存价格上涨的影响 所以这不是一个重仓头寸。 然而，展望未来，由于人们购买数十或数百台这些设备来运行 AI 智能体，营收应该会增加。 资产负债表看起来也很干净，下行风险低： - 营收约 2.8 亿 - 3 亿美元 - 毛利润约 7500 万美元+ - 毛利率约 25% - 净利润：约 1000 万 - 1500 万美元 - 净现金：2800 万美元 分析师目前预测营收增长接近 14-17%。 但如果需求涌入持续，如果囤货潮继续，我们可能会看到营收数字从 14% 的增长增加到适度的 48-55%。 消费板块约占营收的 1/3，但 Openclaw 及其变体带来的新购买潮仍然是重新评级的新催化剂。 特别是现在 Picoclaw 和压缩版 OpenClaw 变体已经能够在 20 美元的树莓派上运行，而不仅仅是树莓派 5。 但似乎人们忘记了树莓派也是一只公开交易的股票。 股价一年下跌 56%，市值 5.4268 亿欧元跌至历史新低。 这可能是反转的顺风。 OpenClaw 成为基于树莓派的智能体部署的长期催化剂的可能性也不为零。 TLDR：人们正在公开购买树莓派和 Apple Mac Mini 用于 Openclaw/Picoclaw，因此营收应从需求增加中受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun Trade Idea: Long $RPI (Raspberry Pi) Reason: 🦞 Openclaw / Picoclaw / Nanobot + Hoarding. Everyone has been openly hoarding Apple Mac Minis and were long Apple. But $APPL is already a $3.7T+ company. Product mass-buying won't make a dent. Raspberry Pi, however, is a 542.68M company. The revenue is material. Feels like markets haven't priced this in since I've seen almost 0 mentions about the ticker on X (but many product mentions). And it's only recently that have the hoarding started Raspberry Pis, as they're much cheaper than $500+ Apple products. They also have their mini $NVDA CUDA-light utility ecosystem that people use. So it turns out these extremely cheap $20 or $200 devices are perfect for deploying mass deploying isolated instances. The reason is for OpenClaw orchestration (so they don’t mess up your device) -> interfacing with a central LLM via API. Before people were just buying 1 or 2 for hobby/education purposes, so revenue has slowing. But now Silicon Valley startups and individuals anecdotally appear to be buying tens or hundreds of these things to run concurrent OpenClaw agentic swarms or do stuff like agentic marketing on Reddit and other places. And no, there are many applications that can't be done by spinning up AWS VPS, so people do it locally (there's TOS around automation/AI bots, so companies setup their own servers). That being said main downside risk is that its - partially foundation owned, and they might not hike rates like $SNDK or $MU does, even if there's extreme demand - Subject to memory price hikes like LPDDR4 component so this is not a major position. However, going forward, revenue should increase due to people buying tens or hundreds of these things for running AI agents. Balance sheet also looks clean with low downside risk: - ~$280M - $300M revenue - ~$75M+ Gross Profit - ~25% Gross Margin - Net income: ~$10M - $15M - Net Cash: $28M Analysts currently project revenue growth closer to 14–17%. But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues. Consumer segments are roughly 1/3rd of revenue but the newfound buying from Openclaw + variants is a new cataylst nevertheless for re-rating. Especially now that Picoclaw and compressed OpenClaw variants are now able to be run on $20 Raspberry Pis instead of just the Raspberry Pi 5’s. But seems like people just forgot Raspberry PI was a publicly stock as well. The stock price is down 56% 1Y to 542.68M euro MC to an all time low. So this might be that tailwind for a reversal. There's also a non-zero chance OpenClaw is a long term catalyst for Raspberry Pi based, agentic deployments. TLDR: People are openly buying Raspberry Pis and Apple Mac Minis for Openclaw/Picoclaw, so revenue should benefit from increased demand.
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存储需求结构性短缺，推理瓶颈在存储，中国产能无外溢。
群联电子(Phison) CEO关于存储与投资框架的访谈摘要： “收过路费者”（Toll Collectors）： - 美光(Micron) ($MU) - SK海力士(000660.KS) - 三星电子 - 西部数据(Western Digital) ($WDC) - $SNDK T2层级： - $MRVL - $SIMO - 群联电子(Phison Electronics) 随着AI向边缘端迁移，设计连接存储与计算逻辑/软件控制器的公司将捕获巨大价值。 T3层级： - 纯存储(Pure Storage) ($PSTG) - NetApp ($NTAP) - 希捷(Seagate) ($STX) 随着Vera Rubin推理服务器推出，键值缓存(KV Cache)和数据生成的爆发将触发针对数据中心存储密度和高容量企业级固态硬盘(Enterprise SSDs)的硬件升级周期。 有趣的是：$EBAY（翻新电子产品）可能成为受益者。 - 做空/规避低毛利消费硬件。 - 做空/规避未对冲的汽车/IoT制造商。 主要Alpha观点： - “三年预付”现金流：存储晶圆厂要求3年现金预付款以保障供应。 - 推理瓶颈在于存储而非GPU：单批次1000万台$NVDA Vera Rubin平台需每台20+TB SSD，仅此项就将消耗去年全球NAND产能的20%。 - “中国供应过剩”看空论调已死： Pan完全驳斥了关于长江存储(YMTC)和长鑫存储(CXMT)的观点。中国内部AI需求巨大，将瞬间消化100%国内产量。不会有廉价中国存储流入全球市场来拯救西方硬件OEM。 访谈TLDR： 存储需求是结构性的。供应端无结束迹象。$INTC CEO上月已确认此点。
原推 ↗英文原文
TLDR of Phison CEO interview on Memory and Investment Framework: "Toll Collectors": - Micron ( $MU ) - SK Hynix (000660.KS) - Samsung Electronics, - Western Digital ( $WDC ) - $SNDK. T2: - $MRVL - $SIMO - Phison Electronics Companies that design the logic/software controllers connecting memory to compute will capture massive value as AI moves to the edge. T3: - Pure Storage ( $PSTG ) - NetApp ( $NTAP ) - Seagate ( $STX) As Vera Rubin inference servers roll out, the explosion in KV Cache and data generation will trigger a massive hardware upgrade cycle specifically focused on data center storage density and high-capacity Enterprise SSDs. Hilariously: $EBAY (refurbished electronics), might be a beneficiary. - Short / Avoid Low-Margin Consumer Hardware. - Short / Avoid Unhedged Auto/IoT Makers Main alpha points: - The "3-Year Prepayment" Cash Flow. Memory foundries are demanding 3 years of cash prepayments to guarantee supply. - The Inference Bottleneck is Storage, Not GPUs. A single 10-million-unit run of $NVDA Vera Rubin platform requires 20+TB of SSD per unit, which alone would consume 20% of last year's global NAND capacity. - The "Chinese Supply Glut" Bear Thesis is Dead: Pan entirely dismisses this point around YMTC and CXMT. China’s internal AI demand is so massive that it will instantly swallow 100% of its domestic production. No cheap Chinese memory will leak into the global market to rescue western hardware OEMs. TLDR from the interview: Memory demand is structural. No supply end in sight. $INTC CEO confirmed this last month.
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科技巨头负债投入AI基建，资金流向英伟达等上游供应商。
世界上最富有的公司正在为AI基础设施建设而负债。 尽管拥有数千亿美元的净利润，从 $AMZN 到 $GOOGL 的公司都大幅增加了资本支出(capex)： 以至于部分公司预计将在2026年出现净现金为负的情况。 以下是结果及受益者： 亚马逊 ( $AMZN ) 2025年：+$460亿 2026年（预估）：+$110亿 Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025年：+$803亿 2026年（预估）：+$130亿 Meta Platforms ( $META ) - 净债务(Net Debt) 2025年：+$229亿 2026年（预估）：-$70亿（预计转为净债务状态） 微软 ( $MSFT ) 2025年：+$492亿 2026年（预估）：+$590亿 甲骨文 ( $ORCL ) 2025年：-$980亿（净债务） 2026年（预估）：-$1150亿 微软似乎处于最安全的位置。虽然亚马逊和谷歌主要依靠运营收入来资助AI基础设施建设。 然而，那巨大的现金流缓冲已经消失。甲骨文和Meta似乎正在通过负债来推动建设，尽管 $META 实现了惊人的运营收入数字。 现在，资金流向了哪里？ 运营收入预测： 1. $NVDA - 美国 $1350亿 -> $1865亿 -> $2401亿 运营收入 2. 三星 - 韩国 ~$302亿 -> ~$1700亿 -> ~$2267亿 3. SK海力士 - 韩国 ~$327亿 -> ~$1240亿 -> ~$1610亿 4. $TSM - 台湾 ~$622亿 -> ~$863亿 - ~$1033亿 – $1053亿 5. $AVGO - 美国 ~$415亿 -> ~$628亿-$651亿 - ~$847亿-$933亿 当然，这些是基于分析师预测的粗略估计。 然而，从总体趋势来看，这看起来像是一种杠杆式赌注，即AI基础设施建设完成后将带来自由现金流(FCF)的红利。 但明显的赢家似乎是英伟达、三星、SK海力士、博通和台积电。 随着超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)中部分公司陷入债务，它们将资产负债表转移给这些供应商，期望从AI支出中获得长期投资回报率(ROI)。
原推 ↗英文原文
The richest companies in the world are going into debt for the AI buildout. Despite hundreds of billions in net income, companies from $AMZN to $GOOGL have increased capex so much: That some are projected to be net negative cash in 2026. Here are the results and who profits: Amazon ( $AMZN ) 2025: +$46.0 billion 2026 (Est): +$11.0 billion Alphabet ( $GOOGL ) 2025: +$80.3 billion 2026 (Est): +$13.0 billion Meta Platforms ( $META ) - Net Debt 2025: +$22.9 billion 2026 (Est): -$7.0 billion (Expected to swing into Net Debt) Microsoft ( $MSFT ) 2025: +$49.2 billion 2026 (Est): +$59.0 billion Oracle ( $ORCL ) 2025: -$98.0 billion (Net Debt) 2026 (Est): -$115.0 billion Microsoft appears to be in the safest position. While Amazon and Google have been largely funding the AI buildout with operating income. However, that large cashflow buffer has vanished. Oracle and Meta appear to be in debt to fuel the buildout, despite $META achieving staggering operating income numbers. Now, where does the money flow into? Operating Income Projections: 1. $NVDA - USA $135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion Operating Income 2. Samsung - Korea ~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion 3. SK Hynix - Korea ~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion 4. $TSM - Taiwan ~$62.2B -> ~$86.3B - ~$103.3B – $105.3 Billion 5. $AVGO - America ~$41.5B -> ~$62.8B-$65.1B - ~$84.7B-$93.3B Of course, these are rough estimates based on analyst projections. However, from the general trend, this looks like a leveraged bet that the AI buildout will pay off dividends in FCF after they're finished. But the clear winners appear to be Nvidia, Samsung, SK Hynix, Broadcom, and TSMC. This comes as hyperscalers, with some going into debt, transfer over their balance sheets to them, expecting a long term ROI from their AI spend.
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英伟达市值达4.4万亿美元，获应得尊重。
@longinvest32 $NVDA 已经是一家市值 4.4 万亿美元的公司。我认为英伟达(Nvidia)正得到它应得的尊重！
原推 ↗英文原文
@longinvest32 $NVDA is already a $4.4T company. I think Nvidia is getting the respect it deserves!
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AI 驱动下，三星和海力士营业利润增速惊人，有望在 2027 年追平或超越美股巨头。
全球最盈利公司排名（Mag 7 vs. 世界） 2025->2026->2027 年营业利润(Operating Income)预测。 #1: $NVDA (美国, 4.4T 市值) 🇺🇸 ~1350 亿 -> 1865 亿 -> 2401 亿美元 #2 三星电子 (韩国, 8200 亿市值) 🇰🇷 ~302 亿 -> ~1700 亿 -> ~2267 亿美元 #3 $MSFT (美国, 2.9T 市值) ~1285 亿 -> 1530 亿 -> 1815 亿美元 #4 $GOOGL (美国, 3.7T 市值) ~1290 亿 -> 1420 亿 -> 1730 亿美元 #4 海力士 (韩国, 4100 亿市值) ~327 亿 -> ~1240 亿 -> ~1610 亿美元 #5 $APPL (美国, 3.76T 市值) 1331 亿 -> 1460 亿 -> 1605 亿美元 #6 $AMZN (美国, 2.13T 市值) 800 亿 -> 1050 亿 -> 1365 亿美元 #7 $Meta (美国, 1.62T 市值) 833 亿 -> 970 亿 -> 1215 亿美元 #8 $TSLA (美国, 1.31T 市值) 44 亿 -> 80 亿 -> 240 亿美元 韩国 8200 亿市值的三星电子预计将在 2027 年在营业利润上追平 $NVDA。 同时，海力士预计将在 2027 年在营业利润上超越 $APPL 和 $AMZN。 主要结论是，由于人工智能(AI)的加速部署，美国超大规模云服务商和韩国股票的增长令人惊叹。
原推 ↗英文原文
Global ranking of the most profitable companies in the world (Mag 7 vs. World) Projections for 2025->2026->2027 (Operating Income). #1: $NVDA (USA, 4.4T MC) 🇺🇸 ~$135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion #2: Samsung Electronics (Korea, $820B MC) 🇰🇷 ~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion #3 $MSFT (USA, $2.9T MC) ~$128.5B -> 153.0B -> $181.5 Billion #4 $GOOGL (USA, $3.7T MC) ~$129.0B -> $142.0B -> $173.0B #4 Sk Hynix (Korea, $410B MC) ~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion #5 $APPL (USA, $3.76T MC) $133.1B -> $146.0B -> $160.5B #6 $AMZN (USA, $2.13T MC) $80.0B -> $105.0B -> $136.5B #7 $Meta (USA, $1.62T MC) $83.3 -> $97.0B -> $121.5B #8 $TSLA (USA, $1.31T MC) $4.4B -> $8.0B -> $24.0B Samsung Electronics, a $820B company in Korea is projected to catch up to $NVDA in 2027 in operating income. Meanwhile Sk Hynix is projected to overtake both $APPL and $AMZN in operating income in 2027. The main takeaway is that the growth of both US hyperscalers and South Korean equities is astounding due to Artificial Intelligence ramp.
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看好4D AI趋势，建仓$AEVA作为中游瓶颈的投机性敞口。
说到像 $AXTI 这样的其他瓶颈环节。 我一直在研究 4D AI。 与行业内部人士的交谈让我相信，继 $NVDA 黄仁勋的会议后，物理 AI 和人形机器人的“世界模型(World Models)”是一个即将到来的趋势。 因此我建仓了从事 4D 激光雷达(4D LiDAR)的 $AEVA。 根据我的研究，这看起来是该趋势中最清晰的功能性中游瓶颈敞口？ 除非有人想提及其他标的。 还有像 $AMBA、$U（是的，是游戏软件）、$TER 和 $OUST 这样的公司，但它们体量较大，且敞口不够清晰。 话虽如此，这仍是一个新领域，所以我仍在进行研究。此外，基本面尚不稳定，因此这更多是对行业增长的创投型押注。 披露：我仅持有 $AEVA 的多头头寸，作为对 4D AI 及物理 AI 世界模型的投机性敞口。
原推 ↗英文原文
Speaking of other bottlenecks like $AXTI. I’ve been looking into 4D AI. Convos with industry insiders leads me to believe it’s an upcoming trend eg. “World Models” for physical AI and humanoids post $NVDA Jensen’s conference. So took positions into $AEVA which is 4D LiDAR. Looks like the clearest functional midstream bottleneck exposure to the trend, from my research? Unless someone has others they’d like to mention. There’s stuff like $AMBA, $U (yes the games software), $TER, and $OUST but they’re larger companies without the clearest exposure. That being said it’s still a new space so still doing research. Also, fundamentals are shaky, so this is more of a venture bet for the industry growth. Disclosure: I have long shares only of $AEVA, as speculative exposure to 4D AI + World Models for physical AI.
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日本在上游半导体瓶颈环节具垄断优势，支撑美国终端产品。
@wheelertweets 日本在上游瓶颈环节处于领先地位。其中许多是独家供应商。例如住友电木(InP substrates)的磷化铟衬底、铠侠(Kioxia)的存储制造、爱德万测试(Advantest)的HBM良率、揖斐电(Ibiden)的IC载板等。最终产品通常是你所见的美国公司，如$NVDA的GPU。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wheelertweets Japan are leaders in bottlenecks upstream. And many are sole source. For example Sumitomo for InP substrates, Kioxia for memory manufacturing, Advantest for HBM yield, Ibiden for IC substrates, etc. The end product are usually American companies like $NVDA GPUs that you see
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马斯克指出Optimus三大瓶颈：智能、手部及制造，暗示美韩主导核心部件。
$TSLA Optimus 瓶颈 TLDR - Elon Musk 采访： “人形机器人只有三件难事”： 1. 现实世界智能（例如 Dojo，$NVDA，三星机电） 2. 手部（~ 可能是 $VPG） 3. 规模化制造（~ 浙江华正，宁波拓普，Everwin） 关于手部： Elon 声称 $TSLA Optimus 的人手自由度比其他机器人更多。 特斯拉“设计了定制执行器、齿轮、功率电子、控制、传感器。这方面没有供应链。” Elon 在采访中基本上强调手部是机器人最涉及知识产权且最复杂的部分。Elon 重申特斯拉解决了中国其他人形机器人今天尚未解决的问题。 这使得西方制造商参与这一特定 BOM 部分的可能性略微增加（相比此前报道的中国供应链）。 关于现实世界智能方面： Elon 聚焦于：“惯性测量、GPS 信号、其他数据，将其与视频结合，主要是视频，然后输出控制命令” - 训练 ~ Cortex / Dojo 供应商，$NVDA。 - 视频与视觉：三星机电？ - IMU + GPS：$STM 或博世？ 规模化制造： 正如朝鲜日报报道，身体部分可能来自中国供应链。 从推理来看似乎是： 大脑 + 高端组件 = 美国/韩国 身体是中国（三花，拓普等）。 但再次强调，这并未确认，只是可能的供应链映射。 无论如何，Elon 为投资者指出了人形机器人量产过程中的三个瓶颈投资方向。
原推 ↗英文原文
$TSLA Optimus Bottleneck TLDR - Elon Musk Interview: "There's only three hard things for humanoid robots": 1. Real World Intelligence (eg. Dojo, $NVDA, Samsung Electro-Mechanics) 2. The Hand (~ possibly $VPG) 3. Scale Manufacturing ( ~ Zhejiang Huazheng, Ningbo TuoFu, Everwin) For the hand: Elon claimed that $TSLA Optimus has the more degrees of freedom with a human hand than other robotic humanoid. Tesla "designed custom actuators, gears power electronics, controls, sensors. There is no supply chain for this." Elon basically focused on the hand is the most IP-sensitive and complex part of the robot during the interview. Elon reiterated that Tesla solved issues with the hand that no other humanoids in China have today. This makes things slightly more probable that Western manufacturers are involved (compared to Chinese supply chains from earlier reports), with this part of this specific BOM. For the Real World Intelligence Aspect: Elon focused on: "Inertial measurements, GPS signals, other data, combining that with video, primarily video, and then outputting the control commands" - Training ~ Cortex / Dojo suppliers, $NVDA. - Video & Vision: Samsung Electro-Mechanics? - IMUs + GPS: $STM or Bosch? Scale Manufacturing: Likely Chinese supply chains as reported, by Chosun for the body. From inference looks like: Brain + high-end components = US/Korean Body is Chinese (Sanhua, Tupou, etc). But again, this is not confirmed, just possible supply chain mapping. Regardless, Elon gave investors three bottlenecks to invest in for the humanoid ramp.
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梳理AI半导体供应链瓶颈，看好存储、光子及台积电，指出中游为定价关键。
以下是我对 Semivision 瓶颈总结的 TLDR（太长不看版）及其映射到投资框架的内容： HBM（高带宽内存）： HBM4 (16Hi) - 三星，SK 海力士，$MU HBF（高带宽闪存）- $SNDK，Kioxia Base Die（基础晶圆）- $TSM，三星（内部） CPO（共封装光学）/光子学： 玻璃基板：$GLW，$INTC，Ibiden 光学：$LITE，$AVGO，$COHR，$MRVL 电力传输： 电压：$MPWR，$VICR 散热：$VRT，$NVT，$MOD 电网：$ETN，$SBGSY SiC/GaN（碳化硅/氮化镓）：$ON，$IFNNY 机架：$APH N2 产能： $TSM，$AMD（数据中心先行者），$QLCM，联发科，$NVDA 先进封装： 良率：$CAMT，$ONTO，$KLAC OSATs（外包半导体组装与测试）：$AMKR $BESIY，Disco Semivision 的总结： 1. “先进封装产能与良率控制” 2. “HBM 生态系统协调” 3. “电力传输创新（SiC、GaN PMICs、机架级电源架构）” 4. “CPO/光子学集成能力” 5. “数据中心基础设施作为半导体收入实现的‘隐性限制因素’” 正如你可能知道的，我对上述的存储/光子学领域（如 SK 海力士/三星，$SNDK，$MU，$LITE）以及 $TSM 最为看好。 我可能会稍微向上游延伸，比如 $AXTI（磷化铟前驱体），但中游玩家是瓶颈所在，并掌控大部分定价权。 但为了简化普通散户投资者的理解，我添加了相关公司的评论。
原推 ↗英文原文
Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary: HBM: HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal) CPO/photonics; Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL Power Delivery: Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY Rack: $APH N2 Volume: $TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA Advanced Packaging: Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC OSATs: $AMKR $BESIY, Disco Semivision's summary: 1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control" 2. "HBM ecosystem coordination" 3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)" 4. "CPO/photonics integration capability" 5. "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization" As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM. I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing. But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.
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AXTI因InP供应链瓶颈逻辑6周涨60%，成AI光子学关键瓶颈标的。
自我发布关于 $AXTI 的初始帖子以来，已经过去了6周。 它的股价又上涨了60%。 几乎没有人在这上面讨论这只市值仅7亿美元的小盘股。 尤其是从磷化铟(InP)供应链与光子学的角度。 现在它已成为一家14亿美元的公司，进入了机构和政府的视野。 在此期间： - 中国出口管制禁止了其竞争对手的前体材料 - 7N级磷化铟(InP)价格周周创历史新高 - 他们从Northland筹集了1亿美元以翻倍产能 - $LITE 业绩大超预期，预计光学需求将超过供应 - 所有超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)的资本支出均超出预期 - 特朗普签署行政令，从美国境内的外国拥有公司手中接管磷化铟(InP)供应链。 这6周里，我预计光子学在未来两年及以后将增长最快。 每只股票都有波动性（这只股票每天上下波动20%+），所以在入场交易前，重要的是建立你自己的信念。 但 $AXTI 是我从7亿美元微小市值开始的最有趣的瓶颈多头标的之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s been 6 weeks since I made the initial $AXTI post. It’s now up another 60%. Almost nobody talked about this tiny $700M stock on X. Especially not from angles of InP supply chains with photonics. And now it’s a $1.4B company on institution and gov radars. Since then: - China export control banned precursors to their competitors - 7n InP prices hit all time highs week after week - They raised $100M from Northland to double their capacity - $LITE blows out earnings with expectations of optical demand outstripping supply - Every hyperscaler blew out expectations of capex - Trump signed executive orders to seize InP supply chains from foreign owned companies in the US. It’s been 6 weeks. And I expect photonics to ramp up the most over the next two years onwards. Every stock has volatility (this one moves 20%+ up and down daily) so it’s important to develop conviction by yourself before entering a trade. But $AXTI is of my most interesting bottleneck longs starting from a tiny $700M MC.
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超大规模云厂商AI资本支出激增，利好上游半导体供应链，建议坚守基本面做多。
市场正遭受AI资本支出(AI capex)冲击的洗礼。 这实质上是超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)与外国之间的一场AI军备竞赛。 2025年至2026年间，资本支出(capex)增长如下： $GOOGL：从910亿-930亿美元增至1750亿-1850亿美元 $AMZN：从1250亿美元增至约2000亿美元 $META：从720亿美元增至1150亿-1350亿美元 $MSFT：从1100亿美元增至1500亿美元 $TSLA：从85亿美元增至200亿美元以上 当谷歌表示其年度支出（用于数据中心、TPU、基础设施）从去年的920亿美元激增至1850亿美元时，这一规模是巨大的。 $AMZN等公司的资本支出预测涵盖机器人到太空领域，情况不一，但同一家内存公司和半导体公司实际上能从中双重受益。 市场可能不欣赏$GOOGL如此巨大的支出，但上游AI供应链 certainly 乐见其成。 尤其是那些最明显受益的公司，例如： 专用集成电路(ASICs)：$AVGO（谷歌TPU、Meta MTIA等） 内存：SK海力士、三星、美光 $TSM（没有台积电你造不出“上帝”） $NVDA（训练） 每个建设项目中都有隐藏的受益者（例如$MSFT带动的$AAOI，$MRVL带动的$POET，$GOOGL带动的$LITE）。但有时，像内存或$TSM这样显而易见的“傻瓜式”标的反而就是最好的选择。 判断AI交易是否持续的最大信号是超大规模云服务商的支出： 而他们刚刚彻底超出了所有预期。 在AI建设浪潮中保持做多，基本面比宏观环境和短期流动性冲击更重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets have been hit with an AI capex shock. This is effectively an AI arms race between hyperscalers and foreign nations. Between 2025 to 2026, capex has increased from: $GOOGL: $91B - $93B to $175B – $185B $AMZN: $125B to ~$200B $META: $72B to $115B-$135B $MSFT: $110B to $150B $TSLA: $8.5B to $20B+ When Google says they are spending $185 Billion in 1 year (on DCs, TPUs, infrastructure), from $92B the previous year, that is enormous. Capex projections like $AMZN are mixed from robotics to space, but the same memory companies and semiconductors actually benefit twice. Markets might not appreciate $GOOGL spending that much but AI supply chains upstream certainly do. Especially the most obvious ones that benefit from most such as: ASICs: $AVGO (Google TPUs, Meta MTIA, etc.) Memory: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron $TSM (You cannot build God without TSM) $NVDA (training) There's hidden beneficiaries in each buildout (eg. $AAOI with $MSFT to $POET with $MRVL, $LITE with $GOOGL). But sometimes, the braindead obvious plays like memory or $TSM are are just the best. The biggest signal of whether the AI trade continues is hyperscaler spending: And they just blew all expectations out of the room. Stay long in the AI buildout, fundamentals matter more than macro and short term liquidity shock.
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谷歌巨额资本支出验证联发科在AI供应链中的地位。
联发科是 $GOOGL TPU 生态系统（TPU v7e 和 v8e）中有趣的一部分。 以及 $NVDA Blackwell（例如 GB10 Grace 设计）。 他们曾在 2025 年做出雄心勃勃的预测，认为其将占据数据中心 ASIC 市场 10-15% 的份额，与 $AVGO 相比。 但鉴于谷歌目前 1750-1850 亿美元的资本支出，看来他们的说法正在得到验证。 披露：无持仓。
原推 ↗英文原文
Mediatek is an interesting part of $GOOGL TPU ecosystem (TPU v7e and v8e). And $NVDA Blackwell (eg. GB10 Grace design). They did make ambitious projections of 10–15% of the DC ASIC market back in 2025 vs. $AVGO. But given Google's $175-185B capex spend today, looks like their claims are getting validated. Disclosure: Have no positions.
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SNAP借债回购掩盖高额股权激励，实质是财富转移，建议回避。
$SNAP 刚刚发布财报并宣布5亿美元股票回购计划。 回购是一个危险信号。 Q4 报告： - 营收：17.16亿美元（+10%） - 自由现金流(FCF)：2.06亿美元（+13%） - 净利润：4500万美元 - 毛利率：59% $SNAP 确认了2.572亿美元的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)，年末SBC总额达10.17亿美元。 如果 $SNAP 用现金而非股票支付员工/高管薪酬，其季度“自由现金流”实际上将是-5100万美元。 你看到的是30亿美元的资产负债表，但他们净现金为-4.9亿美元，因为他们正借入35亿美元以上的长期债务来进行回购。 这与 $META 或 $NVDA 利用资产负债表多余资本进行的回购不同。 这是为了抵消授予高管和“人才”的股票期权。 他们为债务支付的市场利率为6.875%。 仅用于“回购”的债务利息现在每季度超过3000万美元，即每年1.2亿美元以上。 财报看起来很棒，但股票薪酬造成的视觉错觉让现实显得糟糕透顶。 我个人不会投资维多利亚的秘密模特的私人存钱罐。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SNAP Just reported earnings and issued a $500M share buyback. The buyback is a red flag. Q4 Report: - Revenue: $1.716 Billion (+10%) - FCF: $206M (+13%) - Net Income: $45M - Gross Margins: 59% $SNAP recognized $257.2 million in STOCK BASED COMPENSATION, ending the year with $1.017 billion in SBC. If $SNAP paid employees/executives in cash instead of stock, If their "Free Cash Flow" for the quarter would actually be -$51M. You see a $3B balance sheet, but they are net cash -$490 Million, because they are going into $3.5B+ in long term debt to do buybacks. These are not $META or $NVDA buybacks because of excess capital from their balance sheet. It's to offset any stock grants going to their executives and "Talent". They are paying market rates of (6.875%) for their debt. That debt interest is now over $30M+ a quarter, so $120m+ a year just for "buybacks". Earnings look great, but the stock compensation optical illusion makes the reality look horrendous. I would personally not invest in a Victoria Secret model's private piggy bank.
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建议放弃逆向股，重仓三星和SK海力士等AI存储巨头。
老实说，光看这份预估净利润图表…… 让人不禁疑惑，为什么人们还要试图全仓押注像 $PYPL、$FIG 或 $DUOL 这样的逆向反转交易？ 我觉得，坐在像三星或 SK 海力士这样盈利且超增长的公司里“躺平”，才是最容易做的事？ 它们相比“七巨头(Mag7)”规模相对较小，但预计将在 2027 年成为全球最盈利的公司。 有时候，最好的做法就是参与这些显而易见的交易，开启“简单模式”的生活。
原推 ↗英文原文
Honestly just looking at the quoted net income chart… Makes you wonder why people try and full port it into contrarian turnaround plays like $PYPL, $FIG, or $DUOL I feel like sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix is just the easiest thing to do? They’re relatively small compared to Mag7, but projected to become the most profitable companies in the world in 2027. Sometimes the best thing to do is just join in on the no-brainer trades and live life on easy mode.
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InP是AI基建刚需且依赖中国，垂直整合无法解决材料瓶颈。
观点中肯，但有两点误解： - 美国AI基础设施建设必须使用磷化铟(InP)，这是不可妥协的。我们近期看到“交易”案例：$NVDA GPU换取解除关键材料/原料/衬底禁令。美中虽为最大地缘政治对手，却不幸相互依赖。 - 尽管今日小幅回调，7N铟在SMM已创历史新高，而光子学(CPO)产能爬坡甚至尚未开始。你提到硅光(SiPh)替代，但无法替代InP。定制芯片可能采用硅+InP激光器的混合方案，但仍需InP。 - 需求呈指数级增长，$NVDA已锁定外延量子阱激光器(EML)产能，$MSFT Maia预计将占据两位数比例的InP供应链。我高度怀疑库存足以让所有人持续获取。 - 当然，或者他们可以通过涨价来弥补良率损失。 - 这不是垂直整合能解决的。整个供应链是物理/材料问题，因为大部分资源仅在中国可及。 超大规模云厂商可以垂直整合掉$LITE，但无法整合掉原始前驱体或材料。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fair points and two misunderstandings: - US requires InP for AI buildout. This is non-negotiable. And we saw that "trade", $NVDA GPUs for unblocking critical materials/feedstock/substrates bans recently. US and China unfortunately are dependent on one another despite being the biggest geopolitical adversaries. - We're already seeing 7n indium reach ATHs on SMM (depsite recent dip today), and photonics ramp hasn't even started the curve yet. You say SiPh substitution, but you can't substitute away InP. Custom chips might use hybrid w/silicon + InP laser but you still need it. - It scales up exponentially, $NVDA secured EML capacity, $MSFT maia is expected to take up double digits of inp supply chain. Highly doubt there's enough inventory for everyone to keep it accessible. - Sure, or they can price hike to make up for yield - This is not something you can vertically integrate. The entire supply chain is a physics/materials problem because majority is only accessible in China. Hyperscalers can vertically integrate away $LITE but not the raw precursors or materials.
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看好AXTI作为光子学InP材料瓶颈，预计2026下半年因需求激增出现短缺。
我持有 $AXTI 的多头头寸。 今天我们正目睹 $SNDK、$MU、SK 海力士和三星带来的 HBM/NAND 超级周期，由于需求极度旺盛，价格持续上涨。 下一个是什么？-> 光子学 | 共封装光学(CPO) | 光互连。 需求规模呈现抛物线式增长。（Lightcounting 数据） 我对 AXT 的投资逻辑是：它是从磷化铟(InP)衬底到前驱体供应链的材料瓶颈。而 LightCounting 在过去几个月将需求预测翻了三倍。 这是一个物理/材料问题。 未来，西方供应链可以通过硅光子(SiPh)或 $POET 中介层来减少 InP 衬底/原料的使用。但超大规模云服务商无法绕过这一限制。 目前，中游瓶颈如 $LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 等依赖住友 | JX（日本）等西方供应链。 但这些公司使用的许多前驱体源自中国。在中国最近的出口管制后，日本公司虽有部分产能，但缺乏原料前驱体，他们可能正在消耗库存（约1年，无公开信息）。 但随着超大规模云服务商需求激增，库存将耗尽，使 $AXTI 掌握更多供应链控制权。 我们已经看到 $NVDA 确保了 EML 产能（使用 InP）。CPO CW 激光器、SOA 和其他组件也使用 InP。 “短缺”瓶颈正是 $AXTI 卡脖子的 InP 晶圆产线。 根据预测，我预计超大规模云服务商将在 2026 年开始为 2028 年的扩张储备库存，导致 2026 年下半年供应短缺。 $AXTI 的主要问题在于出口管制 + 60 天行政延迟。中国可能正通过 $AXTI 出牌，迫使美国超大规模云服务商依赖其供应链而非日本。 这在财报前的延迟收入确认中体现为双刃剑。但这些出口管制对住友等竞争对手伤害最大。 即使上游没有看到 100% 的月度涨价，基准情形下 InP 衬底和前驱体需求的增加也将提升 AXT 的营收底线。 AXT 仍是我对 2027 年及以后即将到来的超大规模光子学扩张最看多的材料瓶颈标的。 起初我认为这只是一个短期的风险对冲交易，但在研究了涉及光子学的新数据和架构后，我认为 $AXTI 将是未来 AI 建设的关键参与者。 我的逻辑可能过早，或者这恰恰是拐点。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm long shares on $AXTI. We're seeing the HBM/NAND supercycle with $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung today. With constant price hikes due to extreme demand. The next? -> Photonics | CPO | Optical Interconnects. Demand scale up looks parabolic. (Lightcounting) My thesis was on on AXT was that they're the material bottleneck from InP Substrates to the precursor supply chain. And LightCounting's projections tripled the demand forecast in the past few months. This is a physics/material problem. In the future, Western supply chains can engineer away less InP substrates/feedstock usage with SiPh or $POET interposers. But hyperscalers can't get around it. Currently, midstream bottlenecks like $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others rely on Western supply chains like Sumitomo | JX (Japan). But many precursors that companies these companies originated from China. After China's most recent export controls, the Japanese companies have some production, but without raw precursors, they are likely using inventory (maybe 1 year, there is no public information). But as hyperscaler demand ramps up, the inventory will disappear, leaving more control of the supply chain to $AXTI. We've already see $NVDA secure EML capacity (which uses InP). CPO CW lasers, SOA, and other components also use InP. The "shortage" bottleneck is the same InP wafer lines that $AXTI chokepoints. Judging from the projections, I expect hyperscalers to start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026. $AXTI's main issue is export controls + 60D administrative delays. China is likely playing their hand with $AXTI to force American hyperscalers to become dependent on their supply chain over Japan. This has been a double edged sword as seen with their pre-earnings release with delayed revenue recognition. But these export controls hurt their competitors in Sumitomo the most. Even if we don't see 100% monthly price hikes upstream, the base-case is ramped up demand for InP substrates and precursors increasing AXT's bottom line revenue. AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward. Before I expected this to be a short few month play for risk management, but after looking new data and architectures involving photonics, I think $AXTI will likely be a critical player for the AI buildout moving forward. My thesis might be early, or perhaps this may very well be the inflection point.
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博主质疑阿尔特曼指责英伟达的动机。
@michaeljburry 这基本上就是山姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)，不知道他为什么指责 $NVDA https://t.co/GPAPcIg5iI
原推 ↗英文原文
@michaeljburry This is basically Sam Altman, don’t know why he’s blaming $NVDA https://t.co/GPAPcIg5iI
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白银暴跌引发连锁清算，建议转向AI及高现金流标的防御。
市场正经历清算级联效应。白银的崩盘现已蔓延至加密货币及美/外股市。具体情况如下： 以下是预期走势： - $BMNR（加密货币） - $RKLB（高贝塔值） - $SNDK（AI） - 至三星（外国股票）。 “Warsh”美联储主席提名是引发抛售的初始触发因素，市场将其视为“鹰派”->量化紧缩（Quantitative Tightening）。然而，这是一个误解，因为美联储主席很可能与特朗普的政策保持一致，且由于AI因素，其近期立场偏向短期鸽派+降息。 然而，抛售的技术性原因是CME+交易所控制强制白银保证金清算。随着白银日内暴跌33%，机构被迫清算其他标的并进行对冲。因此，我们看到了： 1. 恐惧传染——当避险金属如此暴跌时，会在其他板块引发恐慌。 2. 避险情绪——投资者恐慌性抛售“风险”资产和股票/转向美元和国债。 为了进行防御性操作： - 最好将投机性标的重新配置为符合新政策的自由现金流（FCF）/盈利型多头头寸。 - 如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 跌至 $MU、$TSM、$JPM、三星等标的将受益最大。 - 从 $PYPL 到 $SNAP 等已处于低位（具有强劲预期自由现金流）且被进一步抛售的股票，呈现出不错的反弹上行空间。 尤其是鉴于美联储主席预计对从AI到银行业的许多板块持看涨态度，且由AI增长+生产力推动的降息预期强烈。 警告： - 更多不产生巨大自由现金流的投机性小盘股（从 $ONDS 到 $RKLB）可能因与高贝塔板块抛售的相关性而面临更大风险。 - 像 $BMNR 这样持有非流动性资产（例如Mr. Beast公司2亿美元）的杠杆基金，以及像 $QBTS 或 $RGTI 这样的投机性标的，可能会最终看到重置/清零。 - 像 $JD 到 $BABA 这样的外国市场标的或像 $MELI 这样的新兴市场标的可能会受到流动性流失的影响。 当然，日内交易者可能会在高贝塔标的的反弹时机上大显身手（例如，如果 $ETH 闪崩12%至$2.1K -> 恢复至$2.3K）。 话虽如此，这并不是说“卖出高贝塔”。 鉴于以太坊从$3k+跌至$2.18k，这只是对目前在高贝塔板块使用保证金的人发出的警告： 如果高贝塔股票出现持续抛售，风险相当大。（我个人将以太坊作为代理指标）。 这只是个人市场观点，但总体而言，随着中期选举临近+更多预期的降息+财报表现创历史新高（例如 $SNDK 的爆发），对市场保持极度看涨是好的。 市场在中期选举前看到绿色V型复苏只是时间问题。 基本面没有改变，但表象和短期流动性改变了。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are seeing liquidation cascades. Silver's crash is now extending into other markets like Crypto and US/Foreign stocks. Here's what's happening: And here's what to expect from: - $BMNR (Crypto) - $RKLB (High-Beta) - $SNDK (AI) - to Samsung (Foreign). The "Warsh" Fed Chair nomination was the initial trigger that caused the selloff as markets viewed him as a "Hawk" -> Quantitative Tightening. However, this is a mistake as the fed chair is likely aligned with Trump's policies, and his recent stance is dovish short term + rate cuts, due to AI. However, the technical reason for the selloff was CME + Exchange controls forcing margin liquidations on Silver. As silver crashed 33% intra-day, institutions are forced to liquidate other names and hedge. So, we're seeing both: 1. Fear Contagion - when a safe haven metal plummets this much, this causes a panic across other sectors. 2. Flight to Safety - investors panic-sell "risky" assets and stocks / move to U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds. To play defensive: - It's best to reposition speculative names into FCF/profit generating long positions aligning with these new policies. - Names like $GOOGL, $NVDA down to $MU, $TSM, $JPM, Samsung, and others stand to benefit the most. - Stocks that are already at lows (with strong expected FCF) from $PYPL to $SNAP that are being sold off even more present decent recovery upside. Especially since the Fed chair is expected to be bullish for many sectors from AI to Banking, with rate-cuts fueled by AI growth + productivity. For a warning: - More speculative small cap names (that don't generate massive FCF) from $ONDS to $RKLB may be more at risk due to correlation to high-beta sector selloffs. - Leveraged funds like $BMNR with iliquid assets (eg. $200M in Mr. Beast's company) to speculative names like $QBTS or $RGTI may finally see a reset/wipeout. - Foreign market names like $JD to $BABA or emerging market names like $MELI may be impacted from a liquidity drain. But of course, day-traders may have a field day timing rebounds on high-beta names (eg. if $ETH flash crashes 12% to $2.1K -> recovery to $2.3K). That being said this is not saying "Sell High-Beta". This is just a warning to people with margin on high-beta sectors now that given Ethereum's flush from $3k+ down to $2.18k: There's considerable risk if there's an extended selloff on high-beta stocks. (I've been personally looking at Ethereum as a proxy). This is just personal market opinion, but generally as midterms come up + more expected rate cuts + earnings coming out higher than ever (eg. $SNDK's blowout), it's good to remain extremely bullish on the market. And it's just a matter of time before markets see a green V recovery before midterms. Fundamentals haven't changed but optics have and short-term liquidity have.
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摩根士丹利预测2027年存储巨头利润登顶，确认存储超级周期已至。
存储超级周期已至。 据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最新报告估算： - 三星(Samsung)净利润约1630亿美元 - 海力士(SK Hynix)约1209亿美元。 这将使三星成为全球最赚钱的公司，甚至超过$NVDA和$GOOGL。 以下是前十名排名： 1. 三星电子 ~1630亿美元 (2027年) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL 1524.4亿美元 3. Apple $APPL 1330.5亿美元 4. Microsoft $MSFT 1276.5亿美元 5. 海力士 $SKHYNIX 1209亿美元 (2027年) 6. NVIDIA $NVDA 1165.1亿美元 7. Amazon $AMZN 952.2亿美元 8. Meta $META 850.9亿美元 9. 伯克希尔哈撒韦 $BRK 815亿美元 10. 摩根大通 $JPM 728.1亿美元 这是基于companiesmarketcap来源的2027年前瞻净利润与过去十二个月(TTM)净利润的对比。感谢@jukan05提供摩根士丹利报告。上述数据排除了沙特阿美(National companies)等国有企业。 来自$MU、三星和海力士的存储超级周期显然已经到来。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Memory Supercycle is here. New reports from Morgan Stanley est. - Samsung's net profit ~$163.0B USD - SK Hynix's ~$120.9B USD. That would make Samsung the most profitable company in the world, even more than $NVDA and $GOOGL. Here are the top 10 rankings: 1. Samsung Electronics ~$163.0B (2027) 2. Alphabet $GOOGL $152.44B 3. Apple $APPL $133.05B 4 Microsoft $MSFT $127.65B 5. Sk Hynix $120.9B (2027 6. NVIDIA $NVDA $116.51B 7. Amazon $AMZN $95.22B 8 Meta$META $85.09B 9. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $81.5B 10. JPMorgan Chase $JPM $72.81B This is forward 2027 net income compared to TTM net income sourced by from companiesmarketcap. Credit to @jukan05 for the Morgan Stanley report. Excluding National companies like Saudi Aramco in these figures. The memory supercyle from $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix is here clearly here.
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解析新任美联储主席 Warsh 政策对 AI、金属、加密及全球股市的差异化影响。
Kevin Warsh 是下一任美联储主席。 市场可能会误以为他是一只“鹰派”。 但他 2026 年的实际立场是微妙的。 以下是他的政策及其对市场的影响： 1. AI/半导体（$NVDA, $MU）：极度看涨 2. 金属（白银、黄金）：极度看跌 3. 加密货币（$BTC, $CRCL）：悖论式看涨 4. 银行与金融（$JPM, $BOA）：看涨 5. 住房与房地产：混合/不确定 6. 可再生能源：看跌 7. 小盘股（$RUT）：看涨 8. 外国股票（日本、韩国）：具有韧性 - 新兴市场（EM）：极度看跌 - 中国与香港：看跌 - 欧洲（$VGK, $EZU）：谨慎 1. AI/半导体（从 Nvidia 到 Micron）：极度看涨 Warsh 是 AI 多头。 在 2025 年底，他认为 AI 是一种强大的抗通胀力量。他相信 AI 驱动的生产力提升将使经济在不会引发通胀的情况下快速增长。 这种“生产力繁荣”为他提供了智力上的“掩护”，即使经济保持强劲，他也支持降息。（《美联储破碎的领导层》，2025 年 11 月 16 日《华尔街日报》） 这与他早期立场大相径庭，当时市场预计他会是僵化的通胀鹰派（希望利率更高的人）。 他倡导降息并希望加速 AI 发展。 2. 金属（白银、黄金）：极度看跌 投资者使用黄金作为对冲弱势美元和“印钞”的工具。因为 Warsh 希望缩减资产负债表并关闭“印钞机”，持有黄金的主要理由正在减弱。强势美元使得金属对国际买家来说更昂贵。 话虽如此，白银日内 33% 的下跌主要是由其他因素造成的，例如保证金变动引发的连锁清算，尽管新任美联储主席可能起到了次要作用。 3. 加密货币（$BTC, $CRCL）：悖论式看涨 他曾著名地表示：“如果你不到 40 岁，比特币就是你的新黄金。”他将比特币视为合法的价值储存手段，并认为这是从实物金属向代际转变。 他将区块链视为“最新、最酷的软件”，并相信美国必须在此领域保持领先，以在全球竞争中保持经济竞争力。 然而；“悖论”：为何价格下跌： 市场意识到，虽然 Warsh 希望降低利率，但他也希望美联储资产负债表更小。 投资者害怕我们进入“降息但不量化宽松（QE）”的时代。你可能会得到更便宜的贷款，但不会得到通常将 $BTC 推向历史新高的巨大“资金墙”。 所以我们有一个人对加密货币技术看涨，但他的货币纪律可能会损害短期流动性。 4. 银行与金融：看涨 由于他在摩根士丹利的经历以及对“使命蔓延”的直言不讳的批评，Warsh 是银行业界的宠儿。预计他将回滚复杂的银行资本要求（如巴塞尔协议 III）。分析师认为这对区域性和小盘银行是一个重大利好，因为它释放了用于贷款的资本。 5. 住房与房地产：混合 他希望激进地降低联邦基金利率。这将立即降低可调利率抵押贷款（ARMs）和建筑贷款的成本。 然而，看跌的情况是 Warsh 强烈反对美联储持有 2 万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。许多经济学家警告，这可能会推高 30 年期固定抵押贷款利率（可能升至 7% 或 8%），即使美联储正在降低其他利率。 6. 可再生能源：看跌 他打算让美联储退出全球气候团体（如绿色金融系统网络）并结束银行的“气候压力测试”。 在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任内，美联储鼓励银行在贷款中考虑气候风险。Warsh 希望结束这种做法，这实际上消除了使绿色项目更容易从主要银行获得优惠贷款条款的“监管推动”。 7. 小盘股 Warsh 明确表示，他希望美联储关注经济的“真正驱动力”，即中小企业和企业家，而不是华尔街的“娇生惯养的王子”。 预计 Warsh 将领导大幅回滚复杂的银行资本要求。这对小盘股强烈看涨。他打算通过减轻从事大多数小企业贷款的小型和区域性银行的监管负担，扩大小企业获得资本的途径。 8. 外国股票 预计 Warsh 将在受益于强劲美国经济和易受强势美元及全球流动性收紧影响的国家之间造成分裂。 日本/韩国（三星、SK 海力士等）：日本和韩国“没问题”，因为它们拥有 Kevin Warsh 认为将拯救美国经济的 AI 和机器人交易的物理瓶颈。 通常，强势美元对外国股票不利，但对于日本和韩国来说，这是一种竞争武器： - 出口提振：由于他们的大多数 AI 和机器人合同以美元计价，强势美元意味着他们的收入（换算回日元等）大幅膨胀。 - 对美国更便宜：Warsh 的“强势美元”政策使得日本机器人和韩国芯片对美国公司来说更便宜。这加速了 Warsh 想要的“生产力繁荣”，同时增加了这些外国科技巨头的利润。 中国：强势美元给人民币带来压力，使中国人民银行（中国央行）更难降息以刺激其 struggling 的经济。 新兴市场：强势美元使得新兴国家偿还美元计价债务的成本更高。 欧洲：美元复苏可能会压低欧元，这有助于欧洲出口，但增加了其能源进口成本。 _ 周五，随着白银/黄金暴跌，市场大幅抛售，对冲操作抽走了系统中的流动性。 市场可能会将 Warsh 误认为是历史上的鹰派。 然而，最近的声明显示他短期内偏向鸽派，并支持由 AI 加速的降息。 市场目前正在定价同时降息和缩减资产负债表的可能性，但总体而言，预计从 AI 到小盘成长的许多交易将继续进行。
原推 ↗英文原文
Kevin Warsh is the next Federal Reserve Chair. Markets may confuse him as a "Hawk". His actual stance in 2026 is nuanced. Here's his policies and how they affect the markets: 1. AI/Semis ( $NVDA, $MU): Extremely Bullish 2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish 3. Crypto ( $BTC, $CRCL ): Paradoxically bullish 4. Banking & Financials ( $JPM, $BOA ): Bullish 5. Housing & Real Estate: Mixed/Uncertain 6. Renewable Energy: Bearish 7. Small-Caps ( $RUT ) : Bullish 8. Foreign Stocks (Japan, Korea): Resilient - Emerging Markets (EM): Extremely Bearish - China & Hong Kong: Bearish - Europe ( $VGK, $EZU): Cautious 1. AI/Semis ( Nvidia to Micron ): Extremely Bullish Warsh is an AI Bull. In late 2025, he argued that AI is a powerful dis-inflationary force. He believes AI-driven productivity gains will allow the economy to grow rapidly without triggering inflation. This "productivity boom" gives him the intellectual "cover" to support rate cuts even if the economy remains strong. (The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership, November 16, 2025 WSJ) This is much different than his earlier stances where markets expected him to be a rigid inflation hawk (someone who wants higher rates). He is advocating for cuts and wants to accelerate AI development. 2. Metals (Silver, Gold): Extreme Bearish Investors use gold as a hedge against a weak dollar and "money printing." Because Warsh wants to shrink the balance sheet and turn off the "printing press," the primary reason for holding gold is diminishing. A stronger U.S. Dollar is making metals more expensive for international buyers. That being said the 33% intraday silver drop was mainly from other factors such as cascading liqudation from margin changes, though the new Fed chair likely played a minor role. 3. Crypto ( $BTC, $CRCL ): Paradoxically bullish He famously stated, "If you're under 40, Bitcoin is your new gold." He views Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value and a generational shift away from physical metals. He views the blockchain as "the newest and coolest software" and believes the U.S. must lead in this space to remain economically competitive against global rivals. However; The "Paradox": Why Prices are Dropping: The market is realizing that while Warsh wants lower interest rates, he also wants a smaller Fed balance sheet. Investors are terrified that we are entering an era of "Rate Cuts without QE." You might get cheaper loans, but you won't get the massive "wall of money" that usually sends $BTC to all-time highs. So we have a guy bullish on the technology of crypto, but his monetary discipline might hurt short-term liquidity. 4. Banking & Financials: Bullish Warsh is a favorite of the banking sector due to his experience at Morgan Stanley and his vocal criticism of "mission creep." He is expected to roll back complex bank capital requirements (like Basel III). Analysts see this as a major win for regional and small-cap banks, as it frees up capital for lending. 5. Housing & Real Estate: Mixed He wants to cut the Federal Funds Rate aggressively. This would immediately lower the cost of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) and construction loans. However, the bear case is that Warsh is a fierce opponent of the Fed owning $2 trillion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Many economists warn this could push the 30-year fixed mortgage rate higher (potentially toward 7% or 8%) even as the Fed is cutting other interest rates. 6. Renewable Energy: Bearish He intends to withdraw the Fed from global climate groups (like the Network for Greening the Financial System) and end "climate stress tests" for banks. Under Jerome Powell, the Fed encouraged banks to consider climate risks in their lending. Warsh wants to end this, which effectively removes the "regulatory nudge" that made it easier for green projects to get favorable loan terms from major banks. 7. Small-Caps Warsh has explicitly stated that he wants the Federal Reserve to focus on the "true drivers of the economy", small businesses and entrepreneurs, rather than just the "pampered princes" of Wall Street. Warsh is expected to lead a significant rollback of complex banking capital requirements. This is strongly bullish for small caps. He intends to broaden access to capital for small firms by reducing the regulatory burden on the small and regional banks that do the majority of small-business lending. 8. Foreign Stocks Warsh is expected to createa a divide between countries that benefit from a strong U.S. economy and those that are vulnerable to a stronger U.S. Dollar and tighter global liquidity. Japan/Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix, etc): Japan and Korea are "fine" because they own the physical bottlenecks of the AI and robotics trades that Kevin Warsh believes will save the U.S. economy. Usually, a strong USD is bad for foreign stocks, but for Japan and Korea, it’s a competitive weapon: - Export Boost: Since most of their AI and robotics contracts are priced in USD, a stronger dollar means their revenue (when converted back to Yen, etc.) is massively inflated. - Cheaper for the U.S.: Warsh’s "Strong Dollar" policy makes Japanese robots and Korean chips cheaper for American companies to buy. This accelerates the "Productivity Boom" Warsh wants while padding the profits of these foreign tech giants. China: A stronger dollar puts pressure on the Yuan, making it harder for the PBoC (China's central bank) to cut their own rates to stimulate their struggling economy. Emerging Markets: A stronger U.S. Dollar makes it much more expensive for emerging countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. Europe: Dollar recovery could push the Euro lower, which helps European exports but increases their energy import costs. _ On Friday, markets sold off sharply on Silver/Gold crashing, and hedging pulled liquidity out of the system. Markets might confuse Warsh as a historical hawk. However, recent statements show he's near term dovish and supports lower rates, accelerated by AI. Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reductions but generally, many trades from AI to small cap growth are expected to continue.
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确认坍塌后果，提示钽供应瓶颈对AI硬件供应链的潜在影响。
是的，这确实令人痛心。初步的坍塌报告发生在29日，但后果的规模刚刚得到确认。关于二级效应，许多投资者并没有深入追溯晶圆厂 $TSM 或像 $NVDA 这样的芯片制造商所使用的原材料上游，但在企业级固态硬盘(SSD)到GPU的钽(tantalum)应用中，替代品（如铌(Niobium)）非常有限。所以只是想分享这条新闻以及一些供大家调查的潜在行动项。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes this is incredibly sad. Initial collapse reports happened on the 29th, but scale of the aftermath was confirmed just now. In regards to second order effects, many investors don't really go upstream to the raw materials that fabs $TSM or chipmakers like $NVDA use but there's limited substitutes (eg. Niobium) for tantalum in enterprise ssds to gpus. So just wanted to share the news and some potential action items for people to investigate.
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建仓$CPSH，看好其作为西方AlSiC龙头在AI散热瓶颈中的潜力及国防业务提供的安全垫。
我已建仓 $CPSH，将其作为美国铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)纯题材的瓶颈环节标的。 他们占据了近期半导体级 AlSiC 市场约 25% 的份额。 他们的客户包括： - 美国海军（战争） - 美国陆军（战争） - 美国能源部（能源/核能） - 美国太空军/ NASA（太空） - 洛克希德·马丁 ( $LMT ) - 雷神 ( $RTX ) - 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼 - 通用动力 - 美国海军在最新航母（如杰拉尔德·R·福特号和亚伯拉罕·林肯号）的弹道防护系统中使用 $CPSH 的产品。此外，通过洛克希德·马丁，丹麦海军等舰队也在使用。 - 美国陆军在 40mm 钨弹头和 UH-60 黑鹰直升机中使用 $CPSH 的产品。 - 美国能源部在通过铁路运输核燃料 (SNF) 和高放射性废物时，使用 $CPSH 的产品作为冲击限制器。 - 美国太空军/ NASA 在 GPS 卫星中使用 $CPSH 的产品，且国际空间站的许多电子系统中也有应用。（这还不包括火星车任务） - 洛克希德、雷神、诺斯罗普和通用动力使用 $CPSH 的产品用于导弹热屏蔽组件、雷达系统的 AlSiC 外壳以及热管理材料。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）是一种众所周知的材料复合材料，适用于从太空到国防等众多极端热条件应用。 但随着 $NVDA Rubin 架构在 2027-2028 年扩展至 2300-2500W，由于热翘曲问题，同样的材料可能会被 AI 领域采用。 我的观点是，这种原本用于高超音速导弹到火箭鼻锥等极端热变化处理的微小 TAM（总可服务市场）材料，很可能被用于 AI 部署。 这类似于磷化铟(InP)（电信领域的利基 TAM）随着光子学扩展成为瓶颈，或者东陶(Toto)的精细陶瓷对内存至关重要。 随着 AI 向 Rubin 世代芯片升级，AlSiC（尤其是后处理环节）可能成为一个潜在的瓶颈。 全球大部分 AlSiC 产能仍源自东亚（Denka, Sumitomo, BYD, JFC）。 但 CPS 目前主要的“美国/西方对冲”标的，且 CPSH 表示他们占据了近期可用 AlSiC 市场的大约 25%（CPS Technologies AGM 演示文稿）。 而供应链中这一部分的市值目前仅约 1 亿美元。 他们的资产负债表： 1270 万 -1380 万美元（调整后）现金。几乎零债务。库存约 540 万美元，负债：约 506 万美元（例如 353 万美元用于铝和碳化硅）。 同比营收 880 万美元，增长 +107.29%。 同比净利润增长 20.796 万美元 (+119.94%)。 健康的资产负债表加上美国政府战略利益 + 国防承包商，使得 $CPSH 作为领先的西方 AlSiC 供应链，在 1 亿美元甚至 2 亿美元市值时下行风险较低。 有新合同，例如去年 10 月从领先的半导体公司（可能是 ~Infineon）获得的 1550 万美元订单，增加了营收上行空间的可见性。他们正在扩大产能（由 10 月 25 日的融资支持），这暗示需求更高。 “我们相信我们是 AlSiC 设计和制造的全球领导者……我们的许多产品专为单一客户应用设计，使我们成为这些组件的唯一来源供应商。”（10-K 文件） TLDR：AI 的上行空间完全取决于科技巨头的材料转向。类似于东陶马桶制造商对内存的作用，但 AI 的契合度似乎很强。 但好处是，其现有的美国国防部承包商名单使公司下行风险较低。 这只是我想分享的个人论点。 但个人而言，我已建仓 $CPSH 作为 AlSiC 题材（以及做多美国供应链），因为它可能在 2027-2028 年 AI 扩展至 2000W+ 时，在解决热翘曲方面发挥重要作用。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've initiated positions in $CPSH as a US AlSiC pure play chokepoint. They represent ~25% of the near-term semi-grade AlSiC market. Their customers: - U.S. Navy (War) - U.S. Army (War) - U.S. Dept. of Energy (Energy / Nuclear) - U.S. Space Force / NASA (Space) - Lockheed Martin ( $LMT ) - Raytheon ( $RTX ) - Northrop Grumman - General Dynamics - The U.S. Navy uses $CPSH for ballistic protection systems of the newest carriers (like the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln). As well as other fleets like the Danish Navy through Lockheed. - US Army uses $CPSH for 40mm Tungsten Warheads and UH-60 Black Hawk Helicopters. - The US Dpt of Energy uses $CPSH for impact limiters when transferring nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste via rail. - U.S. Space Force / NASA uses $CPSH for GPS satellites and it sits in many electronic systems in the International Space Station. (Also not including Mars Rover missions) - Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, and General Dynamics uses $CPSH for missile heat-shielding components. AlSiC housings for radar systems, and thermal management materials. AlSiC or (aluminum silicon carbide) is a well known material composite that handles extreme thermal conditions for many applications above from space to defense. But as architectures from $NVDA Rubin to scale up to 2300-2500W in 2027-2028, that same material may be used AI due to heat warpage. My thoughts were that the tiny TAM material used to handle extreme changes in heat from hypersonic missiles to rocket nose cones may likely be used for AI deployments. This is similar to how InP (niche TAM for Telecom) became a bottleneck as photonics scaled up. Or how Toto's fine ceramics for toilets were critical to memory. AlSiC (esp. post-processing) may become a potential chokepoint as AI ramps up to Rubin generation chips. Majority of the world's AlSiC production still originates in East Asia (Denka,Sumitomo, BYD, JFC). But CPS is currently the primary "US/Western hedge" and CPSH states they represent roughly 25% of the near-term available AlSiC market (CPS Technologies AGM Presentation). And that percentage of the supply chain is only worth ~$100 MC right now. Their balance sheet: $12.7M – $13.8M (pro-forma) cash. Almost 0 debt. Inventory ~5.4M, Liabilities: ~$5.06M (eg. $3.53M for aluminum and silicon carbide) Y/Y revenue is 8.8M, up +107.29%. Y/Y Net income is up 207.96K (+119.94%). Healthy balance sheet and US Government strategic interest + Defense Contractors gives $CPSH low downside risk at $100M or even at $200M as the leading Western AlSiC supply chain. There were new contracts eg. $15.5M order from the leading Semi likely ~Infineon last October, that more visibility into revenue upside. And they are expanding production (funded by their Oct 25th raise), which hints to higher demand. "We believe we are the world leader in the design and manufacture of AlSiC... Many of our products are designed specifically for a single customer application, making us the sole-source provider for those components." (10-K filings) TLDR: The AI upside depends entirely on a material pivot by big tech. Similar to the Toto toilet maker for memory type but the AI fit seems strong. But the benefit is that its existing list of US DoD contractors gives the company lower downside risk. This is just my own personal thesis I wanted to share. But personally I've taken positions in $CPSH as an AlSiC play (and long US supply chains) as it may play an important role with thermal warpage with AI in 2027-2028 as we expand to 2000W+.
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揭秘拥有AlSiC供应链优势、受益于AI散热与国防的低风险公司。
我惊讶于评论区里大多数 X 侦探都猜对了。 我很快会发布关于这家神秘公司的深度文章。 根据我的研究，一家美国公司拥有铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)供应链的很大一部分份额是独特的，因为这种材料可用于 $NVDA Rubin 代产品的散热。 更妙的是，AlSiC 在太空和国防垂直领域的应用使得该公司下行风险较低，因为国防部/雷神/诺斯罗普/NASA 都依赖这种复合材料。 但谁知道，这种用于高超音速导弹、F-35 战斗机和火星太空探索的散热材料，也能用于解决 2000W+ AI 部署中的翘曲问题？ 市场似乎尚未意识到这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm surprised majority of the X detectives in the comments guessed this right. I'll do a write-up on this mystery company soon. From my research, it was unique to have US company own a large % of the AlSiC supply chain, as this material could be used for $NVDA Rubin gen for thermal. Better yet, Space + Defense vertical usage of AlSiC gives this company low downside risk bc of DoD/Raytheon/Northrop/NASA reliance of the material composite. But, who knew the same thermal material used for hypersonic missiles, f-35 fighter jets, and Mars space exploration could also be used to handle warpage for 2000W+ AI deployments? Doesn’t seem like markets have yet.
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对比新型云融资结构，指出Coreweave债务风险高且英伟达损失可控。
其他如 $CIFR、$WULF 是数据中心托管(colocation)商，它们不购买 GPU。$CRWV、$NBIS、$IREN 则购买。前两家由 $NVDA 注资。后者 $IREN 由 $MSFT 通过预付款购买 GPU。大多数新型云(neoclouds)拥有极佳的融资结构，如 Nebius 的低息可转换债券。Coreweave 是唯一陷入困境的，背负巨额债务，因此若无垃圾债(junk bonds)支持，很难获得额外资金购买更多 GPU。英伟达给 Coreweave 泼了冷水，投入 Coreweave 的 20 亿美元最终仍回流至 $NVDA。如果 Coreweave 因巨额债务和贬值的 GPU 而倒闭，英伟达损失并不大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Others like $CIFR, $WULF are colo. They don't buy GPUs. $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN do. The first two $NVDA funded. The latter one, $MSFT did with prepayment for Iren to buy GPUs. Most neoclouds have great financing structures like low interest rate Nebius convertible notes. Coreweave is the only one on fire, with massive debt, so it's harder for them to secure additional funding to buy more GPUs without junk bonds. Nvidia threw a bucket of water on Coreweave and the $2B into Coreweave goes back to $NVDA anyways. Nvidia doesn't lose much if and when Coreweave goes under with just a ton of debt and depreciating GPUs.
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建议押注英伟达而非高负债的Coreweave
考虑因为 $NVDA 的交易而买入 $CRWV 吗？ 你可以这样思考： 赌场给你更多资金，因此你可以利用抵押品承担更多债务去赌博。 然后所有额外的钱都流回了赌场（即 $NVDA）。 这并不意味着 Coreweave 是一个好的做多标的。 但这确实让英伟达成为了一个。 押注庄家，而不是那个背负 147 亿美元+债务且年利息支付超过 12 亿美元的人。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thinking about buying $CRWV on the $NVDA deal? Here's the way to think about it: A casino gives you more money, so you could take on more debt with collateral to gamble. Then all the extra money goes back to the Casino (aka. $NVDA). That doesn't make Coreweave a good long. But it does make Nvidia one. Bet on the house, not the one with $14.7B+ in debt with $1.2B+ in yearly interest payments.
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2027-28年GPU散热瓶颈或致AlSiC材料替代铜铝。
散热可能是2027-2028年GPU的一个问题： 随着散热目标向2000-3000W+范围攀升，铜和铝变得不足。 但AlSiC（铝硅碳化物），一种金属基复合材料，可能变得重要。 原因如下： Rubin VR200 GPU指向1800W TDP，AMD Instinct MI450X据报道高达2500W，$NVDA Rubin Ultra的功耗据报道达到2300W。 向2300W的转变创造了大规模的热通量问题。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）是一种金属基复合材料，用于国防、太空和高功率工业应用（如高铁）。 就像Toto等随机马桶公司成为HBM关键一样，这种用于航空航天和工业散热的材料复合材料可能会被用于AI，因为它可以在不发生分层的情况下承受数万次热循环。 因此，随着Rubin等AI加速器达到与工业电源模块或太空相当的功率水平，半导体中AlSiC的采用可能变得重要。 对于2300W系统中的AlSiC： - （结到壳）：包括硅芯片、底部填充物和第一层TIM（热界面材料） - （壳到散热器）：包括均热板（顶盖）和第二层TIM（TIM2） - （散热器到环境）：冷板或液体换热器的热阻。 壳到散热器可能是AlSiC的应用场景。 随着功率密度可能继续向3000W攀升，可能会出现机械和散热危机，这可能导致材料从传统铜封装发生变化。 所以这里有四个部分： 1. 内部/外部散热 看起来SiC（碳化硅）中介层（内部）可能用于$NVDA Rubin代GPU。然后AlSiC（外部）可能用于微通道顶盖（MLCP）或位于芯片中介层组件上方的均热板。 2. 3D垂直堆叠（SoIC） 这些复杂的封装在热循环期间极易翘曲。SiC中介层是脆性晶体，无法提供结构刚性。AlSiC充当“加强筋”，防止基板在高夹紧压力下弯曲。 3. Rubin Ultra NVL576机架可能达到高千瓦功率密度 这种密度造成了SiC中介层无法解决的重量负载瓶颈。Rubin Ultra NVL576机架散热堆栈加液体流道的累积重量可能超过地板承重限制（AlSiC可能成为必要，以在不牺牲传热性能的情况下将散热管理的“死重”减少60%以上）。 4. 微通道的净成型制造 传统铜顶盖必须蚀刻或CNC加工，据报道这一过程在Rubin量产中遇到了高难度。 AlSiC使用“快速注射成型”制造陶瓷预成型体，然后渗入铝。这允许创建复杂的内部几何形状。AlSiC微通道顶盖和硅集成IHS看起来是铜散热管理的替代品。 我们可能会在2026年初看到这一问题的解决，因为SemiAnalysis在2025年报道Nvidia的Blackwell（B100/B200）因CoWoS-L封装中的翘曲问题面临良率问题。 TLDR散热可能是2027-2028年的瓶颈： 一些潜在受益者可能是SiC中介层（高纯度SiC粉末）和用于2027-2028年散热的AlSiC复合材料。 这都是持续的研究，但也许我们会在1-2年内看到一些极其小众且随机的铁路或太空AlSiC供应商被AI使用，就像HBM的马桶制造商一样。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thermal is a likely issue for 2027-2028 GPUs: As thermal targets escalate toward the 2000-3000W+ range, copper and aluminum becomes insufficient. But, AlSiC, a metal matrix composite, may become important. Here's why: Rubin VR200 GPU pointed toward 1800W TDP, AMD Instinct MI450X, reportedly reaches up to 2500W, and $NVDA Rubin Ultra's power reportedtly goes to 2300W. The move toward 2300W creates a heat flux problem of massive scale. Aluminum Silicon Carbide (AlSiC) is a metal matrix composite, used as for defense, space, and high-power industrial applications (eg. high-speed rail). Similar to how random toilet companies like Toto became critical for HBM, this material composite used for thermal management for aerospace and industrial might be used for AI as it can survive tens of thousands of thermal cycles without delamination. So, as AI accelerators like Rubin reach power levels comparable to industrial power modules or space, the adoption of AlSiC in semiconductors may become important. For AlSiC in 2300W systems there's: - (Junction-to-Case): Includes the silicon die, the underfill, and the first layer of TIM - (Case-to-Sink): Includes the heat spreader (lid) and the second layer of TIM (TIM2) - (Sink-to-Ambient): The thermal resistance of the cold plate or liquid heat exchanger. Case-to-Sink is likely the application for AlSiC. And as power densities will likely continue to climb toward the 3000W mark there becomes a mechanical and thermal crisis that likely causes a material change from traditional copper packaging. So there's four different parts to this: 1. Internal/External Thermal It does look like SiC interposers (internal) are probably used for $NVDA Rubin gen GPUs. Then AlSiC (external) may be used for the Microchannel Lid (MLCP) or heat spreader that sits on top of the die interposer assembly. 2. 3D vertical stacking (SoIC) These complex packages are highly vulnerable to warping during thermal cycling. A SiC interposer is a brittle crystal and it cannot provide structural rigidity. AlSiC acts as a "stiffener" that prevents the substrate from bowing under the high clamping pressures 3. Rubin Ultra NVL576 rack likely reaches high KW of power density This density creates a weight-loading bottleneck that SiC interposers cannot solve. Rubin Ultra NVL576 rack cumulative weight of the thermal stack plus liquid manifolds can exceed the floor limits (and AlSiC may become necessary to reduce the "dead weight" of the thermal management by 60%+ without compromising heat transfer). 4. Net-Shape Manufacturing of Microchannels Traditional copper lids must be etched or CNC-machined, a process that has reportedly encountered high mass-production difficulty for Rubin volumes. AlSiC is manufactured using "Quickset Injection Molding" to create a ceramic preform that is then infiltrated with aluminum. This allows for the creation of complex internal geometries. AlSiC Microchannel Lids and Silicon Integrated IHS looks like the alternatives for copper for thermal management. We might be seeing this addressed earlier in 2026 as SemiAnalysis in 2025 reported that Nvidia’s Blackwell (B100/B200) faced yield issues specifically due to warpage in the CoWoS-L packaging. TLDR thermal is a likely a bottleneck in 2027-2028: Some beneficiaries are potentially SiC interposers (high-purity SiC powder) and AlSiC composite for thermal management in 2027-2028. This is all ongoing research, but maybe we'll see some extremely niche and random small railway or space AlSiC supplier be used up for AI in 1-2 years time like toilet makers for HBM.
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某公司掌控全球超两成半导体材料供应，或成2027年散热瓶颈受益者。
这里有一家有趣的公司，恰好拥有全球约 25-30% 的半导体级材料供应链。散热可能是一个问题，因此随着 $NVDA 架构在 2027 年的部署，这可能成为一个潜在的材料复合材料瓶颈。H200（<1000W）没有问题，但随着 Rubin 部署功率升至 2000W，它可能是材料转型的隐性受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's an interesting company on here that happens to own ~25-30% of this semi-grade material supply chain in the world. Thermal is probably an issue, so might be a potential material composite chokepoint with $NVDA architectures in 2027. There was no issue with H200s (<1000W) but as you get higher to 2000w with Rubin deployments, might be a hidden beneficiary of material transitions.
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高股息股暴跌警示：安全感源于成长股而非停滞的股息。
$UNH 刚刚暴跌 -19.48% 至 $283.31。股息投资者(Dividend investors)和巴菲特跟单者(Buffet copytraders)今年过得并不轻松。来自 $PYPL 的跌幅为 -37.8%（1年），$FISV 跌幅为 -72%（1年）。这是一个残酷的警钟：通过追逐 $UNH 约 2.85% 的“股息”或进行价值投资，单日 20% 的下跌（如今天）实际上抹去了 6.6 年的等待。安全感并非来自停滞和股息，而是来自像 $NVDA、$META 或 $TSM 这样最明显的成长型公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
$UNH has just crashed -19.48% to $283.31. Dividend investors and Buffet copytraders are not having a fun time this year. Others from $PYPL are down -37.8% 1Y with $FISV down -72% 1Y. This is a brutal wake-up call that by chasing a ~2.85% "dividends" with UNH or value investing, a single-day drop of 20% (like today) effectively wipes 6.6 years of waiting. Safety isn't found in stagnation and dividends. It's found in the most obvious growth companies like $NVDA, $META, or $TSM.
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钨在芯片、HBM及国防中关键，重要性将随锑等金属上升。
@halldj00 钨(Wolfram)相当有趣，因为它被用于芯片制造（例如 $NVDA Blackwell）、高带宽内存(HBM)、电池以及弹药等国防领域。它们之所以关键是有原因的，像锑(Antimony)这类材料曾出现过巨大的价格逼空，但我确信它们的重要性都会上升。
原推 ↗英文原文
@halldj00 Tungsten is pretty interesting since it's used for chip manufacturing (eg. $NVDA blackwell), hbm, batteries, and defense like ammunition. They're all critical for a reason, stuff like antimony had a huge price squeeze but I'm sure they'll all rise in importance.
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调侃AI算力焦虑实为童年怀旧，非技术瓶颈。
@CrypticAether “瓶颈”并非高带宽内存(HBM3)或关键材料，而是童年怀旧。我们曾以为需要10万个$NVDA H200集群来寻找生命意义，结果发现我们只需要泰迪熊。
原推 ↗英文原文
@CrypticAether The "bottleneck" wasn't HBM3 memory or critical materials. It was childhood nostalgia. We thought we needed 100k clusters of $NVDA H200s to find meaning in life. Turns out, we just needed teddy bears.
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梳理SiC中介层供应链瓶颈及2027年Rubin架构落地时间线。
如果你不喜欢 $WOLF，以下是 $NVDA Rubin 和超大规模客户 ASIC 潜在的碳化硅(SiC)中介层瓶颈股组合： 下游 SiC： $TSM - 用于 CoWoS 中介层的 SiC $AMKR - 用于 SiC 集成的 S-SWIFT 封装 $ASX - VIPack 平台及光学集成 中游 SiC： $KLAC - SiC 缺陷检测 $ONTO - 面板级封装+检测 $AMAT - SiC 沉积 $AEHR - SiC 检测 $ENTG - 化学机械抛光(CMP) $BESI (AS) - 混合键合设备 Disco - 70-80% 市场份额的精密切割 SiC 晶圆： $WOLF - 300mm SiC 晶圆 $COHR - 150mm 和 200mm SiC，仍在开发中 SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - 建设至 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC 键合 NGK Insulators - 晶体生长 Kyocera - SiC 及陶瓷封装 这些都是早期供应链+活跃研究标的。 那么时间线何时到来？ 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra)：继续依赖硅中介层 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra)：在最高端 AI SKU 中引入 SiC 中介层。 2028+：玻璃基板/SiC/金刚石中介层？ 披露：我持有上述 $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR 和 $TSM。
原推 ↗英文原文
The potential SiC (Silicon Carbide) Interposer bottleneck stack for $NVDA Rubin and Hyperscaler ASICs (if you didn't like $WOLF): Downstream SiC: $TSM - SiC for CoWoS interposers $AMKR - S-SWIFT packaging for SiC integration $ASX- VIPack platform and optical integration. SiC Midstream: $KLAC - SiC defect inspection $ONTO - Panel-level packaging + inspection $AMAT - SiC deposition $AEHR - SiC inspection $ENTG - CMP $BESI (AS) - Hybrid Bonding equipment Disco - 70-80% marketshare precision cutting SiC Wafers: $WOLF - 300mm SiC wafers. $COHR - 150mm and 200mm SiC, still developing SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - Building to 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC bonding NGK Insulators - Crystal growth Kyocera - SiC and ceramic packaging These are all early supply chain + active research. So when does this timeline hit? 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra): Continued reliance on Silicon Interposers 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra): Introduction of SiC interposers in the highest-end AI SKUs. 2028+: Glass Substrates/SiC/Diamond Interposers? Disclosure: I own $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR and $TSM above.
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WOLF虽具300mm SiC垄断优势，但高债与稀释使其成财务陷阱。
$WOLF（市值4.64亿美元）是“看空-看多”悖论的典型代表。 Wolfspeed凭借碳化硅(SiC)晶圆被视为AI领域的圣杯。 这家晶圆代工厂上周刚刚制造出全球首片300mm单晶SiC晶圆。 $NVDA的Rubin架构及后续架构很可能需要300mm SiC中介层(interposers)，而Wolfspeed是目前全球唯一能实现这一点的公司。 他们获得了7.5亿美元以上的《芯片法案》拨款，对美国国家安全至关重要。 我将此列为一个瓶颈环节，但关键在于： 这是一个负企业价值(EV)陷阱： - 9.26亿美元现金，21亿美元债务，4.65亿美元市值 - EV约为16亿美元。 此外还有： -> 可转换票据#1 约3.314亿美元。基于10亿美元隐含股权价值转换为新股。 -> 瑞萨(Renesas)可转换票据#2 约2.04亿美元（占总股份的13.6%） 2025年12月15日，Wolfspeed提交招股书，注册1130万股供“出售股东”使用。 这些是破产期间以股权代替现金的前债权人。 所以... Wolfspeed是2027年SiC中介层论点的核心，因为它们在美国制造且拥有巨大护城河。 但在他们能实现大规模量产并掩盖可转换债券、债务和稀释影响之前，这看起来像个陷阱。 从纸面上看，由于拥有全球首片300mm SiC晶圆且作为美国公司具有垄断地位，这是AI愿景股中的圣杯。 但财务上这是一颗地雷。 披露：我未持有任何头寸，只是想分享我的研究结果。
原推 ↗英文原文
$WOLF ($464M) is the paradigm of the "Bear-Bull" Paradox. Wolfspeed is the holy grail of AI with SiC wafers. And this foundry just made the world’s first 300mm single-crystal SiC wafer last week. $NVDA Rubin + architectures likely need 300mm SiC interposers and Wolfspeed is the only company in the world currently that can do it. They're critical to US national security with $750M+ in chips act grants. I listed this as a bottleneck but here's the catch: This is a negative EV trap: - $926M cash, $2.1B debt, $465m MC Ev would be roughly ~$1.6B. Then you have -> Convertible Notes #1 ~$331.4 Million. Convertible into New Common Stock based on an implied equity value of $1.0 Billion. -> Renesas Convertible Notes #2 ~ $204 Million. (13.6% of the total shares) December 15, 2025, Wolfspeed filed a prospectus to register 11.3 million shares for "selling stockholders" These are the former creditors who took equity instead of cash during the bankruptcy. So... Wolfspeed is central to the SiC Interposer thesis for 2027 as they're made in America and are have a massive moat. But this just looks like a trap right unless they can get this to massive scale and overshadow any convertibles, debt, and dilution. This is on paper the holy grail of AI moonshots since they have the world's first 300mm SiC wafer and are a monopoly in as a US company. But financially this is a landmine. Disclosure: I own no positions, just wanted to post my findings.
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看好欣兴电子，作为AI供应链关键瓶颈，受益于存储及先进封装需求。
我持有市场忽视的$MU相关头寸： 欣兴电子(Unimicron)。 这家市值160亿美元的公司是极佳的长线标的，因为它是以下领域的基础供应商： - $MU和三星的存储基板 - $NVDA的Rubin/Blackwell架构 - 台积电(TSMC)的CoWoS工艺 - 苹果（iPhone和M系列芯片） - 谷歌TPU - AMZN/超大规模云厂商的ASIC - 英特尔的ABF基板 - 购买欣兴基板的Amkor - 以及全球所有半导体。 欣兴电子是全球AI供应链中最显著的“瓶颈”之一，因为它提供面向2026-2028年的未来核心部件： - 用于HBM4/存储（DRAM/NAND）+ GPU/CPU的IC基板 - 台积电CoWoS中的“S”（基板） - 用于CoPoS的玻璃核心基板 以及当前iPhone等设备所需的所有基础部件。 它处于存储瓶颈、CoWoS瓶颈以及超大规模云厂商ASIC互连瓶颈的中心。 同时也涵盖未来周期的玻璃核心基板等。 AI围绕另一家Micron（欣兴）展开，你可以借此暴露于当今及未来最热门的瓶颈环节。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've hold positions in the $MU that markets sleep on: Unimicron. This one is an incredible long at $16B as they're foundational for: - $MU and Samsung memory substrates - $NVDA Rubin/Blackwell - TSMC for CoWoS process - Apple (iPhones and M-series) - Google TPUs - AMZN/Hyperscaler ASICs - Intel for ABF substrates - Amkor that buys Unimicron substrates - and all the world's semis. Unimicron is one of the most significant "choke points" in the global AI supply chain as they provide the future: - IC Substrates for HBM4 / Memory (DRAM/NAND) + GPUs/CPUs - The "S" (substrate) in TSM CoWoS - Glass Core Substrates for CoPoS for 2026-2028 and all the foundational parts for customer devices like IPhones and semiconductors used today. They're in the center of the memory bottleneck, CoWoS bottleneck, and interconnects bottleneck for Hyperscaler ASiCs. As well as the future cycles with Glass Core substrates and more. AI revolves around the other Micron and you get exposure to most popular bottlenecks like HBM today and tomorrow.
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中国AI企业受推理算力限制，凸显英伟达在供应链中的绝对主导地位。
有很多报道称中国科技公司（字节跳动、$BABA 等）在推理算力上正面临困境。 中国可能仍未改变其国内自主可控的目标，但推理限制的严峻现实可能迫使他们做出妥协。 这恰恰证明了 $NVDA 的主导地位，即 AI 企业若没有它便无法运转。
原推 ↗英文原文
There were many reports Chinese tech (bytedance, $BABA, etc) were struggling with inference capacity. China still hasn’t likely changed their domestic self-reliance goal but reality of inference limits likely forced their hand. Just goes to show how dominant $NVDA is that AI firms can’t function without it
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日企Nitto Boseki垄断AI关键材料T-glass，巨头争抢供应至2026年。
Nitto Boseki - $NBCLF | 3110: AI极端瓶颈的故事： > 1923年开始纺纱/玻璃纤维 > 做到极致 > 为网球拍创造“T-Glass”（T-玻璃） > 等待100年，所有人都需要它 > $TSM 用于 CoWoS（芯片级封装） > $APPL 用于 M-Series Ultra/Max > $NVDA 用于 Blackwell + Vera Rubin > $TSLA 用于 FSD 汽车内的芯片 > $AMD 用于 MI300/MI400 AI 加速器 > $ANET 用于 800G 到 1.6T 和 3.2T > 苹果、英伟达和台积电争夺供应 > 已售罄至 2026 年 > 苹果、英伟达和高通派团队驻厂，字面意义上向这家纱线制造商乞求玻璃供应 > 目前在半导体用高端 T-glass 市场占据 80-90% 份额 这家价值 42.3 亿美元的垄断企业，全球科技公司都在争夺： 一家随机的日本纱线制造商。 披露：我持有头寸。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nitto Boseki - $NBCLF | 3110: The story of an extreme bottleneck for AI: > Spin Yarn/Glass in 1923 > Be good at it > Create "T-Glass" for tennis rackets > Wait 100Y, everyone needs it > $TSM for CoWoS > $APPL for M-Series Ultra/Max > $NVDA for Blackwell + Vera Rubin > $TSLA for chips inside FSD cars > $AMD for MI300/MI400 AI accelerators > $ANET for 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T > Have Apple to Nvidia to TSM fighting over supply > Sold out through 2026 > Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm sends teams live on site to literally beg this Yarn Maker for glass supply > Now is 80-90% market share of the high-end T-glass used in semiconductors The $4.23 Billion monopoly that every tech company in the world is fighting over: A random Japanese Yarn Spinner. Disclosure: I own positions.
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澄清MRAM不属于英伟达或美光HBM4堆栈。
@Lotharinvest $MRAM 并不位于 $NVDA / $MU 的高带宽内存第四代(HBM4) 堆栈内部。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Lotharinvest $MRAM does not sit inside the $NVDA / $MU HBM4 stack.
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分析美光因本土优势及需求结构性转变的看多逻辑。
这只是一个针对 $MU 的极度简化的看多情景。当然也存在看空因素，例如 @MarkosAAIG 提到的 $NVDA Rubin 在 HBM4 认证方面的执行风险。$INTC 的逻辑与此类似，美光位于美国。美国政府可能对海力士/三星征收关税以推动本土使用，加上超 60 亿美元的赠款、数百亿美元的税收抵免，以及超大规模云厂商对本土供应链的需求，即使出现延迟，美光也拥有巨大优势。在需求端，他们 2026 年及 2027 年的订单已售罄。我认为这是一次结构性需求转变，而非周期性波动，尽管人们可以有不同的解读。
原推 ↗英文原文
So this is just an oversimplified bull case scenario for $MU. There's obviously bear cases too, one being HBM4 qualification execution risk for stuff like $NVDA Rubin that @MarkosAAIG mentioned. Similar thesis with $INTC here, Micron is in the US. US government likely tarrifs on hynix/samsung to push for domestic usage, $6B+ in grants, and tens of billions in tax credits, and hyperscalers wanting a domestic supply chain gives Micron a pretty big edge even if there's delays. As with the demand side, they're sold out for 2026 and into 2027. I see a structural demand shift, not a cycle this time around, people can interpret it differently though.
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类比英伟达，认为美光科技第二波行情上涨预期强烈。
@Thomas_james_1 这让我想起了英伟达($NVDA)在市值攀升至4万亿美元以上时的情况，当时大家都觉得它会上涨。现在，美光科技($MU)在第二波行情中开始让人感觉如出一辙。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Thomas_james_1 Just reminds me of $NVDA during the rise to $4T+ valuation where everyone kinda knew it would go up. Now it’s starting to feel the same with $MU in round 2.
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白宫与科技巨头共同背书，推动英特尔成功。
@Crypto_fox7 没错。并不是每天都有像 $INTC 这样得到白宫背书的公司。政府和所有像 $NVDA 和 $APPL 这样的“七巨头”公司都在推动英特尔取得成功。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Crypto_fox7 Yep. Not every day do you get a company backstopped by the White House like $INTC. Both the government and all the Mag7 companies like $NVDA and $APPL are just pushing for Intel to succeed.
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提醒关注软银曾减持英伟达的历史先例。
@Whopzbet 请记住，软银(SoftBank)在2019年持有$NVDA 4.9%的股份，随后已退出。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Whopzbet Just keep in mind SoftBank owned 4.9% of $NVDA in 2019 and exited.
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区分数据中心重估与新瓶颈发现的投资逻辑差异。
像 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 这样的公司是 2026 年高确信度的标的。但这与一家市值 5000 万美元的小众公司突然因 $NVDA 或 $MSFT 囤货而需求激增的情况不同。数据中心(DC)相关股票可能获得 1 年 2-3 倍的估值重估，但这与新瓶颈带来的 2000%+ 信息发现效应截然不同。像 $UUUU 或 $MP 这样的已知瓶颈也是如此。话说回来，我在文章中把磷化铟(indium phosphide)和导弹拼错了，可以看出我是手写的（也很尴尬）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Companies like $NBIS or $CIFR are high conviction for 2026. But it’s not the same as a small $50m niche company, suddenly being in over-demand from $NVDA or $MSFT stockpiling inventory. You might get a 2-3x 1Y re-rating with DCs but it’s a different story than 2000%+ information discovery of a new bottleneck. Same with known bottlenecks like $UUUU or $MP That being said I also misspelled indium phosphide and missiles in my article so you can tell I hand wrote it (also embarrassing)
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特朗普直播称苹果与英伟达已介入某事。
@Aspie_Supremacy 特朗普在他几小时前的直播采访中措辞是“苹果进去了，英伟达也进去了”。https://t.co/65lMCoK3cY
原推 ↗英文原文
@Aspie_Supremacy Trump worded it was "Apple went in, Nvidia went in" from his live interview few hours ago. https://t.co/65lMCoK3cY
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反驳对英特尔的悲观定价，强调其国家安全地位及政府支持。
抱歉，但Stacy如果在用标准财务模型对$INTC进行建模，并将其定价为一家烧钱的代工厂，那简直是在开玩笑。从国家安全的角度来看，它现在已是美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。无限的印钞机不会让它失败。如果$NVDA或其他公司有任何机会，他们也会受到压力去帮助英特尔。看清这一现实绝非退化。如果Bernstein想给出准确的预测，他们需要审视所有角度，而不是因为特朗普而忽略最大的顺风因素。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sorry but Stacy is trolling if they are applying standard financial modeling to $INTC and pricing it like a cash burning foundry. It’s the unspoken de facto semi arm of the US government for national security at this point. The infinite money printer won’t let it fail. And any chance $NVDA or others get, they’ll be pressured to help Intel. It’s not degenerate at all to see that reality. If Bernstein wants to give an accurate projection they need to look at all the angles instead of ignoring the biggest tailwind because of Trump.
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英伟达与现代合作FSD及波士顿动力量产Atlas。
@ChainHopper 情况是多方面的，但基本上就是 $NVDA 与韩国现代专家合作开发全自动驾驶(FSD)。然后是其波士顿动力部门的大规模量产Atlas机器人。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ChainHopper It’s multifaceted but basically $NVDA Hyundai expert partnership for fsd. Then mass production of Atlas from their Boston Dynamics division.
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讽刺零售商估值不该接近 Nvidia
@SatrialesSnacks 他们真的只是转卖便宜袜子。 $NVDA 是整个 AI 热潮的中心，却和一个钓鱼竿转卖商差不多的 PE，这不合逻辑。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SatrialesSnacks They literally resell cheap socks. It's not logical that $NVDA, the center of the entire AI boom, has about the same P/E as a fishing rod reseller.
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讽刺WMT增长堪比英伟达，应加入七巨头。
@wilson_eth 确实，市场需要把 $WMT 加入“七巨头(Mag 7)”，毕竟这家微波炉转售商的增长显然与 $NVDA 相当。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wilson_eth True, markets need to add $WMT to the Mag 7 since this microwave reseller is growing on par with $NVDA apparently.
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VLN估值严重偏低，基本面显示其存在巨大重估空间。
你拥有一家拥有8000万美元远期营收、英伟达($NVDA)级别毛利率的无晶圆厂机器人半导体公司，其现金/库存与市值之比接近1:1。即便在上涨60%后，$VLN的市值/营收(EV/revenue)比率仅为2.4倍，而同类公司的交易区间在14-18倍之间。若重估至标准的10倍EV/revenue，其价格将是当前价格的3倍以上。这就是为什么自己进行基本面估值计算比看百分比变化要好，因为这看起来像是算法幻觉导致的极端错误定价。
原推 ↗英文原文
You had a $80m forward revenue, $NVDA-margin fabless robotics semi trading close to 1:1 cash/inventory to marketcap. Even after 60% run $VLN literally sits at 2.4 EV/revenue, while similar companies trade between 14-18. Re-rating to a standard 10 EV/revenue would be over 3 times+ current prices. This is why it's good to do the fundamental valuation math yourself rather than looking at percentage changes since this looks to be extreme mispricing from algorithm hallucination.
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VLN转型高毛利AI业务，巨额现金消耗压制当前估值。
-8200万美元的现金消耗产生了极其巨大的实质性影响。 我来回顾一下历史： 去年，$VLN 还是一家低毛利（毛利率仅40%出头）、单一客户依赖梅赛德斯-奔驰的汽车芯片制造商，且该业务板块下滑了37.9%。 自那以来发生了许多实质性变化，他们成功将核心知识产权转型为适用于机器视觉机器人到医疗垂直领域等广泛应用的新型芯片组，实现了类似 $NVDA 69-70%的高毛利率。 该新业务板块目前占其收入的75%以上（同比增长40%+），而其汽车板块则下降了37%+。 如果模型中没有计入这-8200万美元的现金消耗，鉴于机器人和AI领域的估值溢价，Valens 今天的股价可能已超过10美元以上，对应10-12倍的EV倍数（即便这仍偏低）。 但你可以基于上述财务数据自行得出估值结论。
原推 ↗英文原文
-$82M burn made a extremely, extremely big material difference. I'll give you some history: $VLN last year was a low margin, automotive chipmaker (low 40's gross margin) and single supplier dependent on Mercedes, with this segment declining -37.9%. There's been a lot of material changes since then, and they were able to pivot their core IP to a new chipset for broad applications from machine vision in robotics to medical verticals, with $NVDA like 69-70% gross margins. That vertical now makes up 75%+ of their revenue (growing 40%+ Y/Y), while their automotive segment decreased 37%+. If there was no -$82M burn modeled, Valens might be trading above $10+ today with 10-12x EV Multiple (on the low end still) given to robotics and AI segments. But feel free to come up with your own valuation metric based on the financials above.
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指出$VLN因数据错误被算法低估，实为高毛利AI芯片股，建议手动建模验证。
Valens 在 $2.5 的价格看起来存在极端的错误定价。 所谓的 -8200 万美元库存消耗（Inventory Burn）是一个巨大的数据错误，很可能是由于 $VLN 和 $VLN 多伦多股票代码冲突（Ticker Collision）导致的。 散户投资者已经提前发现了这个 Alpha（超额收益机会）。 然而，算法尚未察觉，因为它们仍在基于 -8200 万美元的消耗建模负企业价值（Negative EV）（这需要人工修正）。 鼓励大家从 Stonegate、Streetwise 和扫描器上发布的财务数据中，对以下所有信息进行事实核查，特别是关于 -8200 万美元的错误。 $VLN 因其 2.55 亿美元的市场规模而被严重误解。 这并非因为公司质量，也绝对不是某种“拉高出货”的中国仙股。而是由于算法定价在 -8200 万美元消耗导致的一年内跑道（Runway）不足而受到的人为压制。 这是一家被极度错误定价的 AI 和机器人无晶圆厂（Fabless）芯片制造商，拥有： - 梅赛德斯 - 三星 - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - 西门子 - Logitech 以及许多其他领先的 OEM 和机器人公司作为客户。 $VLN 拥有： - 零债务。 - 9350 万美元现金和 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 约 8000 万美元以上的预计远期收入。 - 其机器人/机器视觉/工业垂直领域的毛利率为 69.1%（同比增长 40%）。汽车板块的混合毛利率将其拉低至 63.0%。 如果你想比较类似的公司： - Lattice $LSCC 交易在约 19 倍和 23 倍 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入比）。 - Macom $MTSI，交易在约 13 倍和 16.5 倍 EV/Revenue。 Valens 的交易价格为： 2.4 倍。这看起来像是一个故障（Glitch）。 即使是非溢价、毛利率 20-30% 的公司，交易倍数也在 4-5 倍。 我们现在看到一家拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的无晶圆厂芯片制造商，在机器人机器视觉到 AI 汽车领域存在极端的错误定价。 最后一点： 我鼓励每个人根据财务数据自己做估值建模。 然后对 -8200 万美元的错误进行尽职调查。 也许你会得出与我相同的结论，即在 $2.5 时存在极端的错误定价。 你拥有一家无债务、拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的机器人/AI 领域无晶圆厂芯片制造商，拥有 Tier-1 客户，但由于技术报告错误而以困境倍数交易。 这可能是历史上散户发现的最罕见时刻之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Valens looks like extreme mispricing at $2.5. The -$82M inventory burn was a massive data error, likely from ticker collision between $VLN and $VLN Toronto. Retail has found out about the alpha early. Yet algorithms have not caught on yet, as they're still modeling negative EV from -$82M burn (this requires manual correction). Everyone is encouraged to fact check everything below from financials posted to -$82M error on Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners. $VLN is heavily misunderstood due to its $255M market cap size. This is not due to company quality and it's definitely not some pump and dump Chinese penny stock. But an artificial suppression from algorithmic pricing in <1Y runway from $82m burn. This is a extremely mispriced AI & Robotics fabless chipmaker with: - Mercedes - Samsung - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - Siemens - Logitch and many other leading OEMs and Robotics companies as customers. $VLN has - Zero Debt. - $93.5 Million Cash and $11M+ in Inventory - $11 Million + in inventory. - ~$80M+ est. forward revenue - 69.1% gross margins on their robotics/machine vision/industrial vertical (growing 40% Y/Y). Blended margins from their automotive segment brings it down to 63.0%. If you want to compare similar companies: - Lattice $LSCC trades around 19x and 23x EV/Revenue. - Macom $MTSI, trades around 13x and 16.5x. EV/Revenue. Valens trades at: 2.4x. Which looks like a glitch. Even non-premium, 20-30% gross margin, companies trade at 4-5x. We now see an extreme mispricing of a $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in verticals for machine vision in robotics to AI automotive sectors. Final Point: I encourage everyone to do valuation modeling themselves from the financial data. And then do due diligence on the -$82M error. Maybe you'll come to the same conclusion that I did regarding the extreme mispricing at $2.5. You have a debt-free, $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in the robotics/AI space with Tier-1 customers, trading at a distressed multiples likely due to a technical reporting error. This might be one of the rarest moments in history retail has discovered.
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作者驳斥对$VLN的误解，基于高毛利、大客户及低估值论证其做多逻辑。
我认为这很大程度上源于极度的认知缺失。欢迎人们核实所有信息，从财报数据到 Stonegate、Streetwise 和扫描器发布的 -8200 万美元技术故障。$VLN 并非随机的中国仙股炒作，其机器人垂直领域（主要收入来源）拥有 8000 万美元以上的远期营收，且毛利率类似 $NVDA 达 69-70%，同时持有 9500 万美元现金和 1100 万美元库存。它也并非无名之辈，三星、Mobileye、梅赛德斯、罗技、西门子等众多 OEM 及机器人+AI 公司均为 $VLN 的客户。$VLN 在 2.5 美元时交易估值约为 2.5 倍 EV/Revenue，而 Lattice、Macom 等类似公司交易估值为 14-18 倍。我只是在发布关于真实定价错误的观点以及我做多（Long）的原因。市场可以随意定价，我强烈建议大家自行研究。此外，最重要的是，这种信息发现有助于这家被压制的芯片制造商的员工在市场开始纠正关于库存消耗的错误信息时重新成长。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think a lot of it comes from an extreme lack of understanding. People are welcome to fact check everything from financials posted to the -$82m technical glitch that Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners all posted. $VLN isn't some random pump and dump Chinese penny stock, they have $80m+ forward revenue off 69-70% $NVDA like margins for their robotics vertical (majority of revenue) and $95M cash + $11m Inventory. It's not unknown either, Samsung, Mobileye, Mercedes, Logitech, Siemens, and many other OEMs and robotics + AI companies are $VLN's customers. VLN trades at ~2.5 EV/revenue at $2.5 while Lattice, Macom, and similar companies they all trade at 14-18x. It's just me posting about the genuine mispricing and why I'm long. Markets can price it in however they want and I really encourage people to do the research themselves. Also most of all, this information discovery helps all the employees at this suppressed chipmaker start to grow again if markets start to make corrections based on misinformation about the inventory burn.
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分享$VLN财务数据，指出其机器人业务高增长且高毛利，估值具吸引力。
你可以自行进行公允价值计算并做出自己的决定。 我在之前的帖子中提供了关于 $VLN 的指标，但我会在那里重新发布它们： 一家无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semiconductor)公司，市销率(Sales)为2.1倍，市值(MC)为2.53亿美元，拥有： 9355万美元现金，1097万美元库存，零债务 综合毛利率为63%（GAAP）/ 66.7%（Non-GAAP）。 - CIB（企业互联网业务）毛利率：69.1% - 汽车业务毛利率：43.2% 3. 远期营收约8000万美元（同比增长20%以上） 4. 76.3%的营收来自机器人业务板块，其毛利率像 $NVDA 一样达到69%-70% 5. 机器人业务板块营收增长40.4%，而汽车业务萎缩37.9%。增长中的业务（机器人）盈利能力几乎是萎缩业务（汽车）的两倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
You can do fair value calculations yourself and make your own decision. I provided metrics in the earlier post about $VLN but I’ll just repost them there fabless semiconductor at 2.1x Sales, $253m MC with: $93.55M Cash, $10.97M in Inventory, Zero Debt Blended Margins of 63% (GAAP) / 66.7% (Non-GAAP). - CIB Gross Margin: 69.1% - Automotive Gross Margin: 43.2% 3. Fwd revenue ~$80M (20%+Y/Y growth) 4. 76.3% of their revenue coming from Robotics segments with $NVDA like 69%-70% gross margins 5. Revenue segments from robotics growing +40.4% while automotive are shrinking 37.9%. The growing part of the business (robotics) is almost two times as profitable as the shrinking part (automotive).
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VLN因代码碰撞致算法误判库存，存在巨大估值修复机会。
$VLN 看起来像是一笔即将彻底失败的算法做空交易。 并非所有算法都会阅读 X 平台，它们仍基于代码碰撞（ticker collision）错误导致的资产负债表上-$8200万美元现金进行建模。 即使粗略估算，股价也应为~$7.30（当前为$2.28）。 从2027年远期来看，$1.3亿营收的5倍EV/Sales加上$9350万净现金。此外，VLN在其机器人和非汽车垂直领域拥有类似 $NVDA 的利润率。 这是一家在高端垂直领域拥有$9300万+现金和$1100万+库存的轻量级、高利润率无晶圆厂半导体公司。 然而，算法却将其定价为<1年的运营资金且伴随巨额现金消耗。 这开始看起来像是少数几个因代码碰撞导致算法彻底出错、而早期在 X 上发现此点的散户却大获全胜的案例。
原推 ↗英文原文
$VLN looks like an algorithmic short trade about to go terribly wrong. Not all algorithms read X, and are still modeling the company off -$82 million cash off the balance sheet from ticker collision typos. Even napkin math would be ~$7.30 (from $2.28 currently) share price. From forward 2027, $130M 5x EV/Sales + $93.5M net cash. On top of that VLN has $NVDA like margins for their robotics and non-automotive vertical. This is a lightweight, high-margin fabless semi in premium verticles with a $93m+ cash pile and $11m+ in inventory. Yet algorithms are pricing in <1Y runway with massive cash burns. This is starting to look like one of the few instances where ticker collision goes terribly wrong for algorithms and amazingly right for retail who spotted this early on X.
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作者重估 $VLN 价值约 6.5 美元，计划长期持有以捕捉其机器人业务高增长红利。
我重新审视了 $VLN 并做了一些快速建模。我个人给出的估值约为 7 亿美元，约合每股 6.5 美元。 我实际上打算持有这些股票一年以获取长期资本利得，因为这是一家真正的无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semi)公司，处于机器人/自动驾驶 AI 领域，其机器人业务板块正以类似 $NVDA 或 $CRDO 的极高利润率实现 20-30% 的同比增长。 有趣的是，此前股价被严重压制，因为市场误以为他们现金为负 8200 万美元，且剩余运营资金(runway)不足一年。
原推 ↗英文原文
I revisited $VLN and did some quick modeling. I personally would assign a value of ~$700m which is around $6.5. I’m actually holding my shares for a year for long term capital gains since this is a legitimate fabless semi in the robotics/self driving AI space that’s growing 20-30% y/y off insanely high $NVDA or $CRDO like margins for their robotics segment. It’s just funny how suppressed this was because they thought they were -82m in cash lol and only had <1 year runway left.
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$AXTI因出口管制成InP垄断者，控制AI光子学双瓶颈，作者买入。
为了提供一些背景：存在两个不同的瓶颈，$AXTI 正处于这两个瓶颈之间。 磷化铟(InP) 原料——双寡头垄断（至关重要，$AXTI 与中国控制着约 78%-80% 的供应）。像 $DOWA 这样的公司相对产量极低。 磷化铟(InP) 衬底——垄断（$AXTI）。此前是双寡头（$AXTI 和住友电气 Sumitomo Electric），占据 60-70% 的 InP 衬底产量，其他日本公司如 JX 贡献的量微乎其微。然而，两天前实施的出口管制限制了向住友及生产 InP 衬底的日本公司供应原料和关键材料，情况发生了改变。 他们虽有库存，但随着出口管制持续，他们将缺乏大规模生产衬底所需的材料，$AXTI 将在 3-6 个月内成为垄断者，这就是上述框架的由来。 这不是数量游戏。这是基于有限材料的价格挤压博弈论。$AXTI 拥有从矿产开采、精炼到衬底生产的全链条供应链及成本结构。 这将转化为利润率。你之前看到的是数亿美元的市场规模(TAM)，现在仅因 $GOOGL TPU、$MSFT Maia、$NVDA、$META 等光子学 AI 建设所需的纯粹必要需求，就可能膨胀至 100 亿美元以上。 这家市值 10 亿美元的公司控制了 AI 建设的两个不同瓶颈。我像早期在 HBM 领域买入 $MU 和 $SNDK 那样买入瓶颈环节，我不试图说服你也这样做，只是分享我的投资论点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just to give some perspective: There's two different bottlenecks. $AXTI sits in the middle of two. InP Feedstock - Duopoly (Vital, $AXTI with China controlling ~78%-80% of supply). Companies like $DOWA produce extremely low amounts relatively. InP Substrates - Monopoly ( $AXTI ). Formerly it was a duopoly ( $AXTI, Sumitomo Electric) with 60-70% of InP substrate production. With misc Japanese companies like JX contributing much tinier amounts. However this changed with export controls 2 days ago restricting feedstock and critical material supply to Sumitomo and Japanese companies that produce InP substrates. They have inventory, but with the export controls continuing, they will lack the materials to produce substrates at scale and $AXTI becomes the monopoly in 3-6 months, hence the framing. This is not a quantity game. This is game theory on price squeezes based on limited materials. $AXTI owns the mineral mines all the way to refining -> substrate production and the supply chain + cost structure. This translates into margins. You were looking at few hundred million TAM that could now inflate to $10B+ just due to pure necessary required for $GOOGL TPUs, $MSFT maia, $NVDA, $META, and so no AI buildout with photonics. This $1B company controls two different bottleneck for the AI buildout. I'm buying into the bottleneck like what happened at the start with HBM with $MU and $SNDK, I'm not trying to convince you to as well, just sharing my thesis.
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HBM 瓶颈导致传统建模失效，磷化铟成新瓶颈，$AXTI 因卡位 AI 建设具极高价值。
当出现像 $MU 或 SK 海力士的 HBM（高带宽内存）这样极不常规的瓶颈时，诸如 NTM（下一财年）这样的标准建模就会失效。目前 HBM 的需求极度缺乏弹性，买家不再询问价格，即使在价格飙升数百%后，他们仍在寻求配额分配。在这种情况下，基于 $NVDA 2025 年上半年 EML（边缘机器学习）的现有短缺，以及 $MSFT 等公司仅其项目就需要全球两位数的磷化铟(InP)产量（针对 2026 年下半年至 2027 年），$AXTI 很可能在接下来几个月成为下一个瓶颈。因此，当 $GOOGL 等超大规模云服务商为避免 TPU 项目停滞而迫切寻求配额时，原本数亿 TAM（总可寻址市场）可能迅速膨胀至数十亿甚至上百亿，这使得对瓶颈的建模变得不可能。这本质上是买入“比特分配”、原料控制和瓶颈环节。一家市值 13 亿美元的公司卡住了整个 AI 建设的脖子，在我看来很便宜。我不知道这会走向何方，但我预计会出现极大的价格挤压（我们在 SMM 上已看到迹象），这将增加 $AXTI 的底线利润。许可证波动一直是一个风险因素。但同样，任何延迟都会因为这是单点故障而卡住整个 AI 建设，前提是如果中国继续对日本实施出口管制。
原推 ↗英文原文
Standard modeling like NTM breaks when there's extremely unconventional bottlenecks like HBM with $MU or Sk Hynix. HBM demand is so inelastic rn that buyers aren't asking for price, they're asking for allocation even after hundreds of percent increases. And in this case InP and $AXTI will likely be the next bottleneck in the upcoming months, just based on existing shortages from $NVDA EML H1 2025 and how others like $MSFT require the world's double digit inp output just for their program for H2 2026 into 2027. So it's impossible to model bottlenecks where few hundred million TAM previously might squeeze to few billion or tens of billions when hyperscalers like $GOOGL are desperate for allocation so their TPU program doesn't stall out. This is buying into bit-allocation, feedstock control, and bottlenecks. A $1.3B company bottlenecking the entire AI buildout looks cheap to me. I don't know where this is heading, but I do expect an extremely large price squeeze (we're seeing it now on SMM), which just increases the bottom line of $AXTI. License volatility was always a risk factor. But again, any delays would just bottleneck the entire AI buildout since this is single point of failure if China continues their export controls on Japan.
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分析$AXTI在InP衬底供应链的垄断瓶颈地位及非对称投资机会。
磷化铟(InP)衬底的可寻址市场(TAM)此前仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信大宗商品。 大多数分析师或卖方报告建模错误，因为其增长并非线性。 这是$AXTI在那些渴望获得配额的全球万亿美元级公司之间，对一种关键材料形成的博弈论式供应瓶颈。 你可以看到，一旦$AXTI和InP的供应短缺启动，其远期TAM和利润率将像高带宽内存(HBM)一样呈指数级增长。我之前做过这个评论，以下是总结： 1. 7N铟原料的价格在上海有色网(SMM)开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI出口至西方，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间的分化。 12月19日：亚洲金属网报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响InP衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模云服务商/西方供应链已经为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长激光二极管(EML)产能后，他们已产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模云服务商的部署因产能问题而放缓。 -> 他们将向上游确保材料（此前因是电信大宗商品而极便宜），然后这就像HBM一样变成博弈论式的配额战。但除了$AXTI，你基本上没有其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数的产能，但实际上根本不够。 3. 最关键的是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面的材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子AI升级中，你会如何评估单一公司的单点故障价值。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会随之崩溃。例如，CEO表示在出口管制前（以及他们筹集1亿美元增加产能前），他们占InP供应链的40%。 而这个巨大的整个AI供应链瓶颈仅估值13亿美元，而一些没有实质影响的随机量子公司却价值100多亿美元。 由于没人知道衬底或原料价格会去向何方，很难准确建模那些TAM突然从数亿变为用于每个AI部署的瓶颈和目标价(PT)。 对我来说，这只是买入拥有最纯粹非对称性博弈的瓶颈（现在恰好是垄断）。
原推 ↗英文原文
TAM for InP substrates was few hundred million previously since it was a niche telecom commodity. Most analysts or charters model this wrong since it's not linear. It's a game theory supply bottleneck of a critical material that $AXTI controls between all the world's trillion dollar companies that are desperate for allocation. You can see both forward TAM and margins increase exponentially like HBM once supply shortage kicks in for $AXTI and InP. I made this comment earlier but this is a summary: 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's impossible to accurately model bottlenecks and PTs where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes. For me it's just buying into the bottleneck with the purest asymmetry play there is (which happens to be a monopoly now).
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AXTI垄断InP成AI基建单点故障，市场开始关注。
$AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域实际上处于垄断地位，且在中国对日本实施出口管制禁令后，成为以下 AI 基础设施建设中唯一的单点故障(Single Point of Failure)环节： - 英伟达 Nvidia ($4.6T) - 微软 Microsoft ($3.59T) - Meta ($1.64T) - 亚马逊 Amazon ($2.57T) - 谷歌 Google ($3.89T) 看来市场开始意识到这一点了。https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a monopoly for InP, and the single point of failure for the AI buildout for: - Nvidia ($4.6T) - Microsoft ($3.59T) - Meta ($1.64T) - Amazon ($2.57T) - Google ($3.89T) after China's export control ban on Japan. Looks like markets are starting to find out. https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS
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铟价分化及日本出口管制使AXTI成AI光子学关键瓶颈，估值被低估。
这只是我个人的观点。自上次财报电话会议以来，许多情况已发生变化： 1. 7纳米铟(Indium)原料价格在SMM开始飙升，我们看到亚洲供应链与西方供应链（$AXTI向西方出口，推高其尚未积压的未来利润率）之间出现分化。 12月19日：Asian Metal报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，证实截至周末，定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这影响磷化铟(InP)衬底生产商的底线，但$AXTI拥有整个成本结构/供应链，因此任何价格上涨仅有利于其利润率。 2. 超大规模数据中心/西方供应链已为衬底支付溢价。在$NVDA从$LITE、$COHR等公司锁定外延生长(EML)产能后，他们面临产能紧张。 -> 我们已看到$MSFT和其他超大规模数据中心部署放缓，可能源于产能问题。 -> 他们将向上游锁定材料（此前作为电信大宗商品极其便宜），然后这变成类似高带宽内存(HBM)的博弈论分配战。但除了$AXTI，你几乎找不到其他能大规模生产的公司。 例如，$GOOGL尤其依赖于此，仅$MSFT的Maia项目若全面铺开预计将占用全球两位数产能，但实际根本不够。 3. 最大变化是日本InP衬底供应链受到出口管制，当住友/JX方面材料耗尽时，$AXTI实际上成为最大的InP衬底供应商。 这纯粹是关于在光子学AI扩张中，对单一公司故障点价值的评估。我们可以争论语义，但如果它倒下，整个供应链也会崩溃。例如，CEO称在出口管制（及其1亿美元融资扩产）之前，他们占InP供应链的40%。 这个整个AI供应链的巨大瓶颈市值仅为13亿美元，而一些无实质影响的量子公司市值却超100亿美元。 很难对瓶颈进行建模，因为数亿总可寻址市场(TAM)突然用于每个AI部署，且无人知晓衬底或原料价格去向。
原推 ↗英文原文
So this is just my perspective on this. Lot of things have changed since the last earnings call, 1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged) Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins. 2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others. -> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity. -> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale. EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough. 3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side. This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity). And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+. It's hard to model bottlenecks where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes.
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质疑MRVL AEC竞争力，看好CRDO增长，预期光学瓶颈将延长铜缆寿命。
我的意思是，$MRVL 自 2022 年以来难道没有宣布过四次左右像 Alaska A 这样的 AEC（有源铜缆）杀手吗？我把它当作 $AMD 宣称每一代发布最终都要击败 $NVDA 来看待。 $CRDO 的财报和预测一直在以惊人的速度增长，尽管 Marvell 会是严肃的竞争对手（但如果 Marvell 起飞，两者仍有共存空间）。 我认为光学是最大威胁，但我一直预期 $AXTI 的光学组件会出现巨大的光学瓶颈，因此超大规模云厂商很可能被迫延长铜缆的使用寿命。
原推 ↗英文原文
I mean hasn't $MRVL announced an AEC killer with Alaska A like 4+ different times now since 2022? I treat it like $AMD saying they'll finally beat $NVDA with each gen release. $CRDO's earnings + projections just keeps growing at insane rates, though Marvell would be a serious competitor (but room for both if Marvell takes off). I see optical as the biggest threat, but I've been expecting a huge optical bottleneck for opticals components w/ $AXTI, so hyperscalers will likely be forced into copper life extension.
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材料价格创历史新高，西方公司支付溢价，超大规模厂商尚未开始大规模采购。
@itsthesquonky 我会再给它几个月时间。你已经可以看到材料价格触及历史高点(ATH)，西方公司正在支付巨额溢价。 这还是在产能爬坡(pre-ramp)之前，$MSFT、$AMZN 和 $META 甚至 barely 开始。（$NVDA 预订了产能，造成了最初的冲击）
原推 ↗英文原文
@itsthesquonky I’d give it a few months. You can already see material prices hitting ATHs, with Western companies paying large premiums. This is pre-ramp too, $MSFT, $AMZN, and $META barely even started. ( $NVDA booked out capacity, causing the initial shock) https://t.co/rEG5X7Co81
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AXTI成InP衬底垄断瓶颈，估值偏低，建议关注其作为AI光学关键标的的投资价值。
$AXTI 在中国通过出口管制重创日本磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链后，实际上已成为一个单点故障垄断者。未来的AI基础设施建设依赖于光学技术。AXT目前的估值为11亿美元，考虑到其对$NVDA、$GOOGL、$MSFT、$META等公司的重要性，我觉得这个估值小得可笑。当然，如果中国限制AXT的出口，下游超大规模云服务商将面临更严重的问题。但是否值得买入这个瓶颈环节，由你决定。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a single point of failure monopoly after China crippled Japan’s InP substrates supply chains with export controls. The future AI buildout relies on optical. AXT is valued at $1.1B currently, which I find hilariously small given the importance to $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and so on. Of course if China restricts exports from AXT there are bigger things to worry about since this flows downstream to hyperscalers. But I’ll let you decide if it’s worth buying into the bottleneck.
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AI供应链因依赖单一源AXTI面临瓶颈风险，日本厂商或被迫切换产能。
这对AI基础设施建设绝对不是什么好事，因为整个AI供应链（例如$LITE、$COHR -> $GOOGL、$NVDA等）在接下来的两年里突然变得依赖于单一来源$AXTI。 一旦日本供应耗尽，像$LITE这样的公司可能会将产能从住友（Sumitomo）、JX转向$AXTI作为主要供应商（鉴于其已融资1亿美元用于扩大产能）。 不幸的是，日本没有美国那样的谈判能力来推翻这一局面。我们将看看事态如何发展。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is definitely not a good thing for the AI buildout because the whole AI supply chain eg. $LITE, $COHR -> $GOOGL, $NVDA others suddenly became dependent on a single source $AXTI for the next two years. Companies like $LITE will probably shift capacity from Sumitomo, JX to $AXTI as the main supplier (given they raised $100M for more capacity) once supply in Japan runs out. Unfortunately Japan doesn't have the same negotiating power as the US to overturn this. We'll see how this develops.
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AXTI因InP衬底短缺及中美价差套利，受益于AI供应链瓶颈，具非对称上涨潜力。
磷化铟(InP)衬底短缺与“价差”套利 - $AXTI 市场研究显示，InP和光学组件正变得类似于高带宽内存(HBM)的短缺和价格狂热。 最初的瓶颈是由$NVDA垄断$COHR到$LITE的电吸收调制激光器(EML)产能造成的（TrendForce）。 以下是详细分析： 据报道，$NVDA已对EML激光芯片进行战略性产能预订，将这些特定组件的交货期推至2027年以后。 通过预订像$LITE和$COHR这样受InP限制的集成器件制造商(IDM)的成品产能，英伟达实际上消除了光学引擎的产能。 “二阶效应”：因此，许多超大规模云服务商（如$MSFT到$AMZN）可能推迟了其路线图/爬坡计划，并正在寻找产能。 光学制造商也在疯狂寻找替代来源。 由于主要IDM已被预订，超大规模云服务商正在向上游移动，直接锁定晶圆、衬底和原料产能，从而在材料层面放大需求。 上海金属市场上6N和7N级铟均处于历史高位；西方市场价格更高，代表了中国与西方市场之间的价格分化。 例如，6N级铟价格约为每公斤412.83-425.46美元。 6N级西方价格约为668.00美元（1月1日，来源：Indium Corporation，5-9公斤数量），溢价超过50%+。（与超大规模云服务商的直接现货谈判价格可能不同）。 7N级的溢价可能更高，衬底享有的溢价最高（无公开数据，但一些估计达到三位数溢价）。 然而，瓶颈现已向上游迁移至衬底本身（以及三阶效应，原料）以锁定产能。 $AXTI在InP瓶颈中或许扮演着最关键且独特的角色，即“InP供应链的40%”（$AXTI CEO ER语录）： 低成本：AXTI的工厂位于北京。他们采购材料（拥有10+家材料供应商）并自行精炼成成品衬底。 高售价：他们将成品InP衬底销往全球市场，那里的价格因短缺和西方铟价格而通胀。 套利：只要AXTI继续获得出口许可证，他们就能捕获中国低制造成本与全球高售价之间的巨大价差。 相比之下，西方公司很大程度上受到上游材料成本和西方溢价的影响。因此，$AXTI下个季度的利润率应会迅速扩张，加上Northland通过1亿美元股份出售注入的生产产能。 这源于12月下旬亚洲金属(Asian Metal)的报道，表明中国供应商明确“提高了对美出口报价”： 2025年12月19日：亚洲金属报道“铟锭供应商提高美国报价”，标志着西方定价特定分化的开始。 2025年12月24日：随后报道“铟锭供应商提高中国报价”，确认到周末定价压力已在国内和出口渠道固化。 这源于超大规模云服务商的产能垄断、交货期延长以及“AI”材料定价与商品基准的脱钩。 InP衬底“大幅涨价”的条件不仅存在，而且正在活跃。 在整个2026年，随着超大规模云服务商向上游锁定需求，InP衬底价格以及由此一步之遥的铟商品价格可能会迅速飙升。 从InP衬底+InP原料价格可能的抛物线式上涨中双向受益的公司将是$AXTI，在$16股价、约8.5亿美元市值下呈现非对称上行空间。然而，风险依然存在，因为他们严重依赖出口许可证和美中贸易关系。 TLDR，AXT： 1. 位于InP衬底和InP原料瓶颈的中心 2. 受益于分配战期间中国生产与美国超大规模云服务商溢价之间的利润率套利和衬底价格飙升。 3. 控制着西方超大规模云服务商AI建设所需衬底的主要全球现货产出份额。 超大规模云服务商看到英伟达垄断了EML产能，现在可能正在查看像$AXTI、住友或原料（Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA）这样的公司以确保其路线图。 AXT是8.5亿美元市值下最有趣的公司之一，因为它控制着超大规模云服务商AI建设的关键瓶颈，并捕获InP衬底价格飙升+利润率套利机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
The InP substrate shortage and "Spread" Arbitrage - $AXTI Market research is showing InP and optical components to become analogous to the HBM shortage and price craze. The initial bottleneck was caused by $NVDA monopolizing of the production capacity of EML from $COHR to $LITE (TrendForce). Here's the breakdown: $NVDA has reportedly engaged in strategic capacity reservations for EML laser chips, pushing lead times for these specific components beyond 2027. By booking out the finished goods capacity of IDMs like $LITE and $COHR (who are constrained by InP), Nvidia has effectively removed the capacity for optical engines. The "Second Order effect": As a result, many hyperscalers have likely delayed their roadmaps/ramp from $MSFT to $AMZN and are looking for capacity. Optical makers have also scrambled for alternative sources. Since the primary IDMs are booked, hyperscalers are moving upstream to secure wafers, substrate, and feedstock capacity directly, creating a effect that is amplifying demand at the materials level. Both 6N and 7N Indium are at all time highs on the Shanghai Metal Markets; prices sit higher on Western markets, representing a price bifurcation between China and Western markets. 6N for example sits ~$412.83-$425.46 per kg. 6N Western prices are ~$668.00 (Jan 1st, source: Indium Corporation at 5-9 kg quantities), over 50%+ premium. (Spot direct negotiations to hyperscalers would likely have different prices). Premiums for 7N would likely higher margin, with substrates commanding the most premium (not public data, but some estimates go into triple digit premiums) However, the bottleneck has now migrated upstream to substrate itself (and third order effect, feedstock) to secure capacity. $AXTI perhaps plays one of the most critical roles and unique roles as "40% of the InP supply chain" ( $AXTI CEO ER quote) in the InP bottleneck: Low costs: AXTI's factory is in Beijing. They source materials (own 10+ materials suppliers) and refine them themselves into finish substrates. Sell High: They sell finished InP substrates to the global market, where prices are inflated by the shortage and the Western Indium price. Arbitrage: As long as AXTI continues their export permits, they capture the massive spread between low Chinese manufacturing costs and high global selling prices. This is compared to Western companies that are largely affected by upstream material costs and Western premiums. As a result $AXTI, margins next quarter should expand rapidly on top of their production capacity funded by the $100m share sale injection by Northland. This is implicated from reports from late December reports from Asian Metal, indicating that Chinese suppliers explicitly "raised offering prices" for exports to the US: December 19, 2025: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing. December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week. This stems from capacity monopolization by hyperscalers, extended lead times, and a decoupling of "AI" material pricing from commodity baselines. The conditions for a "Massive Price Increase" for InP substrates are not just present, they are active. Throughout 2026, both the price of InP substrates, and by one-hop, the commodity price of Indium would likely see a rapid surge as hyperscalers go upstream to secure demand. The company that benefits both ways from the a possible parabolic rally in InP substrate + InP feedstock prices would be $AXTI, presenting an asymmetrical upside at $16, ~$850M MC. However, the risks are present as they're heavily reliant on export permits and US-China trade relations. TLDR, AXT: 1. Sits in the center of both InP substrate and InP feedstock bottlenecks 2. Benefits from margin arbitrage and substrate price surges between China production and US hyperscaler premiums during allocation battles. 3. Controls a major a major percentage of the world's merchant output for substrates required for the Western hyperscaler AI buildout. Hyperscalers saw Nvidia monopolized EML capacity and are likely looking at companies like $AXTI, Sumitomo or feedstock (Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA) to secure their roadmaps now. AXT is one of the most interesting companies at $850m given it controls the critical bottleneck to the hyperscaler AI buildout and captures both the InP substrate price surge + margin arbitrage opportunities.
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分析SKC和SHMD在CPO及半导体供应链中的机会。
谢谢！虽然还有很多遗漏，但我仍在深入研究它们。 $SKC/Absolics（市值约25亿美元）作为共封装光学(CPO)领域的首发者，且美国政府深度参与，对于$NVDA、$AVGO/$MVRL而言颇具看点。 $SHMD（市值约2.5亿美元）也很有趣，因为$AVGO可能是其客户，且他们可能处于$INTC和三星的路线图之中。 但总体而言，市场提供了大量有趣的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks! There's a lot I'm missing but still doing a lot of research into them. $SKC/Absolics (~$2.5B MC) was interesting for $NVDA, $AVGO / $MVRL CPO play as the first-to-market with US Government heavily involved, $SHMD (~$250m) was also pretty interesting too since $AVGO was a likely customer and they're probably on $INTC, Samsung roadmaps. But generally market presents a ton of interesting opportunities.
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
原推 ↗英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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对比JTNC与AbsoLics，看好后者在CPO及玻璃基板领域的先发优势。
是 $JTNC 吗？很难想到多少纯概念股，但它们做的是 TGV，而非用于 $NVDA 共封装光学(CPO) 的光学方案，如康宁/AbsoLics。我原本更关注 CPO 方面，但还有其他机会。AbsoLics 似乎已是明确的首选，因为其市值仅 25 亿美元，获得美国 CHIPS 法案政府资助，且率先上市。尽管背负沉重包袱，但鉴于其体量较小，其玻璃基板垂直整合业务应能强力带动整体表现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Is it JTNC? Can't really think of many pure-play, but they're for TGV, not optical used for $NVDA CPO like Corning/Absolics. I was more focused on CPO aspect but there's other opportunities. Absolics seems like the clear favorite already since it's $2.5B MC, funded by US Gov from CHIPS, and first-to market. It does carry heavy baggage, but its glass substrate vertical should just hard-carry the rest given the small size.
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2026年十大主题投资：聚焦AI供应链瓶颈、软体机器人及支付颠覆。
2026年通讯。 主题投资：演进、颠覆与瓶颈 1. 软体机器人 - 向 $TSLA、$ONDS、波士顿动力演进。 2. 硅光子(SiPh) - 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈 | $AXTI、$LITE、$GOOGL 3. 玻璃基板 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA、$INTC、$TSM 4. 资金流动 - 对 $V、Stripe、$BOA 的颠覆 5. AI云层级 - 瓶颈 | $NBIS、$IREN、$HUT 6. LLM网络安全 - 向 $CRWD、$CSCO、$MSFT 演进 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向 $RKLB、SpaceX、$ASTS 演进 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、$PATH Cognition 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 瓶颈 | $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA (LPU/Groq)、$AMD、$INTC _这是我对从公开信息综合及瓶颈二/三阶效应来看最感兴趣的主题投资的简要概述！_ 1. 软体机器人：向机器人的演进 传统机器人（Optimus、波士顿动力）依赖逆运动学控制刚性关节。软体机器人改变了数学模型。 我们已到达硬件（Optimus、波士顿动力、Figure）与LLM（Gemini、Grok、Opus）相遇的节点，正处于大规模商业化的开端。 通过使用受章鱼触手和人类皮肤启发的材料，机器人正从齿轮转向流体性，以处理极其精细的任务，如像人手一样处理农产品，或为 $ONDS/Andruil 无人机添加类章鱼延伸以拾取极重表面。 这种演进在于跳出思维定势思考机器人能做什么。我记得7年前曾与该领域的斯坦福博士合作，AI在多年研究后开始商业化，因此该领域也是如此。 将类生物流体性添加到刚性机器人中的可能性是无限的，这只是自然演进。 大多数可能是私人公司。 2. 硅光子 - AI基础设施的瓶颈“磷化铟(InP)卡脖子点” 从Blackwell Ultra集群到Google TPU已触及上限，需要光子互连 | 共封装光学(OCS)以实现扩展。 基板：$AXTI（通过Tongmei）和住友（日本）控制全球约60-70%的InP基板市场。 材料：Vital Materials（中国）和AXT等公司控制原材料铟本身的精炼（78%+的供应链）。 如果你是美国科技巨头，你2026年的整个“AI增长故事”取决于由地缘政治对手控制的材料。 唯一可扩展的解决方案是工程绕行，要么实现芯片上光传输，同时减少90%的铟使用，要么使用微小的磷化铟薄片代替大型昂贵晶圆。 瓶颈本身有机会，如AXT、住友。或帮助解决它的公司如 $POET。 3. 玻璃基板 - 解决从 $NVDA 到其他公司的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈 向玻璃基板的转变本质上是半导体行业对当前材料物理极限的回答。 当前芯片位于有机材料（本质上是专用塑料）制成的基板上。随着芯片变大，如Nvidia巨大的GPU封装，塑料基板会翘曲。 因此，玻璃基板正成为共封装光学(CPO)的行业标准，因为它们解决了光子学中最大的对齐问题。 美国政府已视其为必要，我们看到巨额补贴流向这些公司。 $INTC、三星电子、Absolics（SKC子公司）、DNP等是主要受益者，尤其是随着MRVL和 $AVGO（推动光学开关的玻璃）推进CPO革命。 4. 资金流动 - 对卡网络、银行、交易所和支付的颠覆 几十年来，资金转移一直是“收费公路”业务。每次刷卡，2%到3%的钱流入卡网络（Visa/Mastercard）和发卡行的口袋。 或者从交易所买卖加密货币是0.2-1%。这是历史上最有利可图、“不可杀死”的商业模式。 直到现在。2025年的“天才法案”刚刚将金钱传输许可证或银行特许状交给像 $XRP 这样的公司，赋予了他们王国钥匙。 对我来说并非理论。我恰好正在自己的初创公司与创建V / $PYPL 实时支付网络的人一起从事这项工作。 但基本上，拥有现有MTL或追求银行特许状并利用天才法案及其他技术的公司，现在可以通过在美联储和区块链之上进行结算来绕过传统百分比费用，有效地将基于百分比的费用转化为几美分。 99%的公司会这样做吗？可能不会，因为支付行业的所有利润率都将归零。但我乐意看到。 但基本上，Stripe以11亿美元收购Bridge本应是对现有公司的红色警报，表明1天ACH、 interchange模式、25美元国际转账的日子即将结束。 这扩展到许多其他相邻领域，从低费用颠覆者如 $HOOD、Mercury，一直到稳定币新银行，或制作自己稳定币的公司如 $SOFI。 5. AI云层级 - 超大规模计算瓶颈的解决方案 当超大规模云厂商被困在3-5年的电网互连队列中时，像WULF和IREN这样的矿工今天就拥有即插即用的GW级算力。 这是千载难逢的机会，超大规模云厂商将其现金牛云收入流向小公司。 这里有不同的层级，从Fluidstack、Poolside、Fireworks在GPU编排层，到IREN等公司构建的裸金属层。 然后有成为超大规模云厂商本身，如NBIS拥有物理位置、GPU、软件编排，然后为推理提供简单接口。 这是少数小公司在未来一两年成为AWS或Azure，或被收购（例如GOOGL以47亿美元收购Intersect）的机会。 像NBIS、IREN、CRWV这样的新云，以及像CIFR、WULF、HUT这样的colo玩家（以及私人部门->能源）将受益。 6. LLM网络安全 - 向现代安全和漏洞防御的演进 最近的报告（例如来自Anthropic红队）显示，高级模型如Opus（及未来版本）可以自主扫描开源智能合约，并在几分钟内识别价值数百万美元的“零日”漏洞。 含义：如果AI能在不可变的区块链合约中找到逻辑缺陷，它也能在银行的SWIFT API或电网控制软件中找到缺陷。 同样适用于KYC/AML。像Gemini Nano Banana这样的模型能够创建逼真的图像/视频，人们能够绕过许多程序。 这个领域有很多不性感但具Alpha潜力的事情，如LLM自动化SOC2/PCI DSS合规，代理坐在服务器上，持续监控日志，并自动生成审计所需的证据。 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向拓展最后疆域的演进 太空是下一个大事情。这并不新鲜。（希望你懂这个笑话）。但从像 $RKLB、SpaceX这样的公司，到解决轨道拥堵或发射节奏瓶颈的公司，再到像ASTS或Starlink这样商业化基础设施的公司，在未来一年呈现许多机会。 因此，像Impulse、Blue Origin、$ASOZF到RKLB、$ASTS这样的公司将受益于整个链条。 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、PATH Cognition 这一点很简单，无需解释。但在对就业+成本节约的潜在影响上显而易见。 你如何自动化商务拓展？如何自动化营销？如何自动化软件工程师？ 这超越了ChatGPT的几步回答，直接进入现实世界，AI代理可以在X上漫游，找到合适的人，发送DM，继续对话，并在一个工作流中导致销售电话。 这是“聊天机器人”时代的结束和“行动”时代的开始，取代公司以前需要的所有人。 我尚未看到任何公司大规模做到这一点。拥有这些的公共公司如META并没有呈现最佳敞口。也许是 $PATH 在公共空间。 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 解决AI计算容量紧张的瓶颈 像GOOGL Cloud、MSFT Azure这样的超大规模云厂商已达最大容量。 Elon Musk已经提出分布式计算作为解决此问题的未来（例如，拥有 $TSLA 网络为LLM推理提供计算）。 “Tesla计算云”论点很迷人，但我识别出的最大物理障碍是：推理延迟。 要生成“Token B”，模型必须先生成“Token A”。它不能同时做两者。如果你将一个巨大模型（如Grok-3）拆分到5辆不同的汽车中以适应内存，你必须为每个生成的Token在这些汽车之间发送数据。 因此，如果汽车之间的网络延迟甚至是20ms（5G的乐观估计），而你生成50个Token，你刚刚在计算时间之上添加了1秒的纯“等待时间”（延迟）。在使用NVLink的数据中心中，该等待时间以纳秒计。 同样适用于零售用户拥有的任何备用计算机、GPU等。有数十亿消费级GPU（Teslas、iPhones、游戏PC）90%的时间闲置。 解决推理的“分布式延迟”问题呈现了计算史上最大的套利机会之一。 尚未看到任何公司大规模完成此任务。也许NVIDIA Dynamo、$AKAM、TSLA正在接近。 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 解决Nvidia和其他公司的瓶颈 既然我们不能拥有无限的InP，我们必须用现有的东西（例如铜）进行工程绕行，所以铜电缆可以做物理上说它不应该做的事，如在不损失信号的情况下跨机架传输224G信号。 行业在InP上遇到了硬性停止，美国在物理上无法开采和精炼足够的InP将数据中心中的每个链接变成光纤。 如果有任何帮助，那就是好事。例如，NVDA对Groq团队和IP的200亿美元“收购雇佣”。LPU更多是关于推理延迟/架构，但它作为副产品解决了铜寿命延长。Groq的整个架构在延迟上击败了Nvidia，因为它拒绝了光学。Groq使用“确定性”网格，依赖芯片之间的直接电气（铜）连接，避免光学开关的“抖动”和转换时间。 像 $ALAB、$CRDO、Groq，或任何能找到用铜绕过光学瓶颈方法的公司将是赢家。 _这里有从私人部门投资到公共部门的众多交易！只是今天即兴写下了我的想法，但乐意稍后详细阐述。 无论如何，我相信这些主题投资中的许多： 从投资InQ瓶颈绕行（$POET）或瓶颈本身（$AXTI）到公共部门的颠覆者（$CRCL）。 到投资铜扩展瓶颈修复（Groq）、银行特许状颠覆者（Mercury）到私人部门的演进公司（Lightmatter、Festo）。 在2026年呈现不对称上行空间。 新年快乐！
原推 ↗英文原文
2026 Newsletter. Thematic Investments: Evolution, Disruption, and Bottlenecks 1. Soft Robotics - Evolution to $TSLA, $ONDS, Boston Dynamics. 2. SiPh - InP Bottleneck | $AXTI, $LITE, $GOOGL 3. Glass Substrates - Bottleneck | $NVDA, $INTC, $TSM 4. Money Movement - Disruption to $V, Stripe, $BOA 5. AI Cloud Layers - Bottleneck | $NBIS, $IREN, $HUT. 6. LLM Cybersecuirty - Evolution to $CRWD, $CSCO, $MSFT 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | Evolution to $RKLB, SpaceX, $ASTS 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, $PATH Cognition 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Bottleneck | $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Bottleneck | $NVDA (LPU/Groq), $AMD, $INTC _ This is an light overview of thematic investments I find the most interesting from a public-information synthesis perspective + second/third-order effects from bottlenecks! _ 1. Soft Robotics: The Evolution to Robotics Traditional robotics (Optimus, Boston Dynamics) relies on Inverse Kinematics to rigid joints. Soft robotics changes the math. We've met the point where hardware (Optimus, Boston Dynamics, Figure) met LLMs (Gemini, Grok, Opus), and we're at the beginning of possible widespread commercialization. By using materials inspired by octopus tentacles and human skin, robots are moving away from gears and toward fluidity to handle extremely delicate tasks like handling produce like the human hand, to picking up extremely heavy surfaces adding Octopus-like extensions to $ONDS/Andruil Drones. The evolution is thinking outside the box in terms of what robotics can do. I remember working with some Stanford PHds in this field like 7 years ago, and it just so happens AI is starting to be commercialized after many years of research. So expected, this field to be as well. Possibilities are limitless adding organism-like fluidity to rigid robotics, this is just the natural evolution. Most of these are prob private companies. _ 2. Silicon Photonics - Bottleneck of the AI Infrastructure "InP Chokepoint" Blackwell Ultra Clusters to Google TPUs have hit the upper wall and requires photonics for interconnects | OCS to scale up. The Substrates: $AXTI (via Tongmei) and Sumitomo (Japan) control roughly 60-70% of the world's InP substrate market. The Materials: Companies like Vital Materials (China) and AXT control the refining of the raw Indium itself (78%+ of supply chain). If you are a US tech giant, your entire "AI Growth Story" for 2026 depends on materials controlled by geopolitical rivals. The only scalable solution is engineering around it, either by delivering light-on-chip, while using 90% less InP or companies that use tiny slivers of Indium Phosphide instead of large, expensive wafers. There's opportunities with the bottleneck itself like AXT, Sumitomo. Or companies that help address it like $POET. _ 3. Glass Substrates - Fixing the Bottleneck for CPOs from $NVDA to others. The shift toward glass substrates is essentially the semiconductor industry’s answer to a physical wall they are hitting with current materials. Current chips sit on a substrate made of organic materials (essentially specialized plastic). As chips get larger, like Nvidia's massive GPU packages, plastic substrates warps. So, glass substrates is becoming the industry standard for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) because they solve the single biggest problem in photonics with alignment. US Government already sees this as a necessity and we've seen huge subsidies funneling down to some of these companies. Companies like $INTC, Samsung Electronics, Absolics (SKC Subsidiary), DNP, and others are the main beneficiaries, especially as MRVL and $AVGO (driving glass for optical switches) move forward with CPO revolution. _ 4. Money Movement - The Disruption to Card Networks, Banking, Exchange, and Payments For decades, moving money has been a "toll road" business. Every time you swiped a card, 2% to 3% of that money vanished into the pockets of the Card Networks (Visa/Mastercard) and Issuing Banks. Or buying/selling crypto from an exchange would be .2-1%. It was the most profitable, "un-killable" business model in history. Until now. The "Genius Act" of 2025 just handed companies like $XRP with Money Transmitter Licenses or Banking Charters the keys to the kingdom. Not really theoretical for me. I happen to be working on this myself at my own startup with some folks who created V / $PYPL's real-time payment networks. But basically companies with existing MTLs or pursuing banking charters leveraging the Genius Act and some other tech can now bypass legacy % fees by doing settlement on top of the Federal Reserve and blockchains, effectively converting percentage-based fees into a few cents. Would 99% companies do it? Probably not since every single margin from across the payment industry would just go to 0. I'd be happy though. But basically Bridge's $1.1B acquisition by Stripe should have been a red-alarm to existing companies that days of 1-Day ACH, interchange models, $25 international transfers, are soon to be over. This extends to many other adjacents from low fee disruptions like $HOOD, Mercury all the way to Stablecoin Neobanks, or companies making their own stablecoins like $SOFI. _ 5. AI Cloud Layers - The Solution to HyperScaler compute Bottleneck While Hyperscalers are stuck in 3-5 year grid interconnection queues, miners like WULF and IREN are sitting on plug-ready GWs today This is the opportunity of a lifetime as hyperscaler funnel their cash cow Cloud revenues down to tiny companies. There's many different layers to this from Fluidstack, Poolside, Fireworks on the GPU orchestration layer, to the bare metal layer that companies like IREN are building. Then there's becoming the hyperscaler themselves like NBIS owning the physical locations, the GPU, software orchestration, and then providing simple interfaces for inference. This is the opportunity for a few small companies to become Amazon Web Service or Microsoft Azure over the next year or two, or get acquired (eg. GOOGL buying Intersect for $4.7B) Neoclouds like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, down to colo plays like CIFR, WULF, HUT (and private sectors -> Energy) stand to benefit. _ 6. LLM Cybersecurity - The Evolution to Modern Security and Vulnerability Defense Recent reports (e.g., from Anthropic's Red Team) showed that advanced models like Opus (and future iterations) could autonomously scan open-source smart contracts and identify "Zero-Day" exploits worth millions of dollars in minutes. The Implication: If an AI can find a logic flaw in a immutable Blockchain contract, it can find a flaw in a bank's SWIFT API or a power grid's control software. Same with KYC/AML. Models like Gemini Nano Banana are able to create realistic images/videos of people and people are able to get past a lot of programs. There's tons of things as an unsexy alpha in this field like LLMs automating away SOC2/PCI dss compliance to agents sitting on a server, continuously monitor logs, and auto-generate the evidence needed for auditors. 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | The Evolution to Expanding into the final frontier. Space is the next big thing. This is not anything new. (hope you got the joke). But anywhere from companies like $RKLB, SpaceX. Companies that fix orbital congestion or launch cadence bottlenecks. To companies that commercialize the infrastructure like ASTS or Starlink present many opportunities over the next year. So companies like Impulse, Blue Origin, $ASOZF to RKLB, $ASTS stand to benefit across the entire chain. 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, PATH Cognition This one is simple and needs no explanation. But largely obvious in potential impact on employment + cost saving. How do you automate away business development? How do you automate away marketing? How do you automate away software engineers? This is going past few step ChatGPT answers and directly in to the real world where an AI agent can roam X, find the right people, DM someone, continue conversations, and lead to a sales call in just one workflow. This is the end of the "Chatbot" era and the beginning of the "Action" era replacing everyone previously required in a company. I haven't quite seen this done at scale yet with any company. Public companies like META that own these, don't really present the best exposure. Maybe $PATH for public space. 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Fixing the Bottleneck for AI Compute Capacity Strains Hyperscalers like GOOGL Cloud, MSFT Azure at max capacity. Elon Musk already floated distributed computing as the future of solving this issue (eg. having networks of $TSLA's providing compute for LLMs for inference). The "Tesla Compute Cloud" thesis is fascinating, but the single biggest physical barrier I've identified is: Inference Latency. Too generate "Token B," the model must first finish generating "Token A." It cannot do both at the same time. If you split a massive model (like Grok-3) across 5 different cars to fit it in memory, you have to send data between those cars for every single token generated. So, if your network latency between cars is even 20ms (optimistic for 5G), and you are generating 50 tokens, you just added 1 full second of pure "waiting time" (latency) on top of the compute time. In a data center using NVLink, that wait time is measured in nanoseconds. Same applies to any spare computer, GPU, and others owned by retail users. And there's billions of consumer GPUs (Teslas, iPhones, Gaming PCs) that sit idle 90% of the time. Solving the "distributed latency" problem for inference presents one of the single greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of computing. Haven't really seen any companies that accomplished this at scale yet. Maybe NVIDIA Dynamo, $AKAM, TSLA, getting a little closer. 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Addressing the Bottlenecks of Nvidia and Others Since we can't have infinite InP, we have to engineer around it with what we have (eg. Copper), so copper cables can do things that physics said it shouldnt like carrying 224G signals across a rack without signal loss. The industry is hitting a hard stop on InP where, US cannot physically cannot mine and refine enough InP to turn every link in a data center into fiber optics. If anything helps, then it's good. EG. NVDA's $20B "Acqui-hire" of Groq's team and IP. LPU is more about inference latency/architecture but it addresses copper life extension as a byproduct. Groq’s entire architecture beat Nvidia on latency because it rejected optics. Groq uses a "deterministic" mesh that relies on direct electrical (copper) connections between chips, avoiding the "jitter" and conversion time of optical switches. Companies like $ALAB, $CRDO, Groq, or anyone who can find ways to engineer around the optical bottleneck with copper will be a winner. _ There are tons of trades from both private sector investments to public! Just wrote up my thoughts on the fly today, but happy to elaborate later. Regardless I believe a lot of these thematic investments from: Investing in InQ Bottleneck Workarounds ( $POET ) or the bottleneck itself ( $AXTI ) to Disruptors ( $CRCL ) in the public sector. To Investing in copper extension bottleneck fixes (Groq), bank charter disruptors (Mercury) to evolutionary companies (Lightmatter, Festo) in the private sector. Present asymmetrical upside in 2026. Happy New Year!
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分析NVDA、SMCI等超跌股数据，认为其均值回归潜力大。
我也可以为 $NVDA 提出看空论点，即超大规模云服务商正在自研 ASIC。但在这种情况下，你要看数据而非叙事，比如英伟达的积压订单(backlog)，简直惊人。 $SMCI 远不及此，这也是它三个月下跌 40% 的原因，但它营收同比(Y/Y)仍增长 50%+，甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 至于 $SNAP，如果你是价值投资者，它被严重低估。Perplexity 交易增加 4 亿美元价值，加上内存变现的净自由现金流(FCF)为 +6.3 亿美元。然而它年初至今仍下跌 25%。 $HIMS 完成了 Zava 收购并拓展欧洲。亚马逊等虽已推出竞品，但我认为 Hims 明年营收同比(Y/Y)仍将增长 20%+，且有回购。它们显然不像 SK 海力士、台积电、Lite-On 等神级股票那样以疯狂速度增长，但超跌+均值回归速度更快，上行空间可能更大。
原推 ↗英文原文
So I can argue the bear case for $NVDA too, that hyperscalers are building their own ASICs. But in cases like these, you look at numbers rather than narrative like, the backlog for Nvidia, it's wild. $SMCI is nowhere close, which is why it's down 40% in 3 months but it's still growing revenue 50%+ Y/Y and even raised FY guidance from $33B to FY $36B. As for $SNAP, it's materially undervalued if you're value investing. Perplexity deal adding $400m in value, then net FCF from memory monetization is +$630M. Yet it's trading 25% down from the start of the year. $HIMS has Zava acqusition and is expanding to Europe. Amazon and others already launched competitors but Hims I think is still growing 20%+ Y/Y into next year and has buybacks. They're obviously not god-tier stocks like Sk Hynix, TSM, Lite, and others just growing at insane rates but this is the point of being over-sold + revert to mean a lot faster. And upside could be higher.
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认为英伟达因高盈利进入证明阶段
@BitcoinAIGuy 鉴于 $NVDA 的盈利能力，我认为我们正处于“证明它”的阶段，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@BitcoinAIGuy I think we’re a little prove it stage with $NVDA given how profitable they are lol
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解析AI供应链各环节标的风险收益特征，推荐TSM稳健、AXTI高弹性、NBIS高成长。
感谢关注！我来简单拆解一下：我看好金融科技(Fintech)和人工智能(AI)，这是我的两个主要成长型投资板块。像 $CRCL 这样的稳定币(Stablecoins)属于金融科技领域。至于 AI 领域，我专注于供应链投资： 新云厂商(Neoclouds) -> AI 顶层消费者/超大规模云提供商。$NBIS 是我的最爱。 顺着供应链往下，谁帮助制造 $NBIS 和 $IREN 购买的 GPU？ -> 来自 $NVDA 的 GPU，部分 $AMD，以及未来可能来自 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN 的 ASIC。 谁帮助生产这些 GPU？ -> $TSM 谁帮助在数据中心扩展这些 GPU 集群？ -> $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI 用于生产扩展 GPU 集群所需互连件的原材料是什么？ -> $AXTI 它们都主题性地搭乘 AI 资本支出(CapEx)浪潮，但敞口各不相同。 我通常不会说“1”，因为它们的风险特征不同。 如果必须为复利增长选择最安全的一个：$TSM 如果必须选择 6 个月内潜在上行空间最大的一个？$AXTI 可能因材料短缺而受益，但如果中国封锁出口也可能归零。 如果必须选择 2 年内最有可能实现 5-10 倍增长并成为超大规模云厂商的一个？$NBIS。但存在稀释风险，自动取款机(ATM)发行可能导致股价停滞数月，但从 70-90 亿 ARR 和 20% EBIT 的未来前景来看，长期非对称上行空间最大。 当然，如果 AI 资本支出浪潮放缓，它们都会下跌，因此分散投资于金融科技等其他板块是明智的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for following along! I'll just give you a breakdown: I like Fintech and AI, those are basically my two main growth investment baskets. Stablecoins like $CRCL are in the fintech domain. As for AI domain I am just supply chain investing: Neoclouds -> Top level consumer/hyperscaler cloud providers for AI. $NBIS is my favorite. Go down the supply chain, who helps manufacture the GPUs used that $NBIS and $IREN buy? -> GPUs from $NVDA, some $AMD, and maybe ASICs from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN down the road. Who helps create those GPUs -> $TSM Who helps scale up those GPU clusters in data centers? -> $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI What are those raw materials used to produce the interconnects to scale up those GPU clusters? -> $AXTI They're all ride the AI CapEx wave thematically, but the exposure is all different. I never typically never say "1" because they all have different risk-profiles. if I had to choose the safest one for just compounding: $TSM If I had to choose the one with the highest possible upside over 6 months? $AXTI from material shock, but it could also go to 0 if China blocks exports. If I had to choose the best chance to 5-10x and become a hyperscaler over 2 years? $NBIS. But there's risks from dilution, ATMs stalling out the stock for a few months, but highest asymmetrical upside over periods of time from 7-9B arr 20% ebit in the future But of course, if AI CapEx wave slows, then they all go down, which it's good to diversify in other segments like fintech.
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分析InP材料供应瓶颈，通过历史案例说明关键材料博弈论，预判超大规模云商将抢购InP衬底产能。
当我发WSB帖子时，我半开玩笑地提到$AXTI。但对于极端瓶颈和InP供应冲击，我可不是开玩笑的。这是一个关于关键材料博弈论的呼唤。 如果我们回顾历史上许多瓶颈案例： 1. 镝(Dysprosium)：约2300%涨幅（约$100/kg -> $2400/kg，2010-11年） 2. 氖气(Neon Gas)：约1000%-2000%涨幅（2022年） 3. 铑(Rhodium)：约$3,000/盎司 -> 约$29,000/盎司（约860%） 当前铟(In)的价格涨幅与其他材料相比如何？ 89%：（约$440/kg -> 约$832/kg）。 用于半导体的关键材料（如用于光刻激光器的氖气），因为芯片制造商如英特尔和三星在乌克兰冲突期间进行了储备，价格暴涨超过2000%。他们吸收了成本，因为氖气只占芯片价值的一小部分。 与氖气一样，磷化铟(InP)是一种关键的"赋能"材料。晶圆成本相对于AI集群成本（$100的晶圆对比$30,000的GPU）来说很小。超大规模云商宁愿吸收巨大的价格上涨，也不愿延迟部署。InP目前还没有出现这种情况，但我们很可能会看到。 传统分析师和许多AI模型不知道如何建模关键瓶颈，因为历史上很少有这样的案例：一种极其廉价的商品（如InP，TAM只有几亿美元）突然成为价值数万亿美元的AI建设中最关键的材料。 目前，超大规模云商可能已经向下游供应商Coherent/$LITE下了订单，但可能没有意识到激光器生产和产能受到上游材料短缺的制约而排满。 InP衬底（$AXTI + Sumitomo + JX生产）和磷化铟原料（$AXTI、Vital、$DOWA）都存在供应储备，需求超过供应数倍。 $NVDA最初通过锁定EML大量产能加剧了供应短缺。但短缺早在超大规模云商扩产之前就已经存在，大部分需求将在2026年底至2027年Trainium或Maia出现时涌入。 但如何绕过原始瓶颈并确保AI部署？ 直接从（$AXTI、Sumitomo）购买衬底产能，或者更进一层，购买InP原料并将其交给衬底生产商，以确保谷歌的TPU项目不会停滞。 与其他关键材料（如氖气用于光刻激光器）类似，磷化铟和InP衬底对整个AI建设更为关键： 1. Nvidia：InfiniBand / NVLink（光学 - 800G/1.6T EML光模块）- 对InP高度依赖 2. Google：Jupiter / Apollo（光学 - OCS），高度依赖 3. Microsoft：Azure Maia：高（800G DR4/FR4） 4. Meta：F16 / Artemis（800G）高 这还不包括其他Mag7公司如$AMZN或使用光子技术扩展ASIC的其他公司。 目前，分析师基于TAM对InP公司进行建模。例如，2024年InP晶圆市场总规模为$183M-$205M（Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence，2024年） - 6英寸（150mm）细分市场TAM：$65M - 预计2032年InP总TAM：$580M-$700M 现在看激光级磷化铟原料的TAM： - 多晶InP原料TAM：约$3亿 - 高纯度铟（6N/7N）仅：约$4亿 衬底数据：Mordor Intelligence（InP晶圆市场2025-2030）和Straits Research。 原料数据：Market Report Analytics（磷化铟多晶行业分析2025）。 这是一种极其便宜的电信产品，现在成为整个供应链中最珍贵的材料之一。 价格上涨3000%只会占$GOOGL TPU部署或$MSFT MAIA部署BOM值的低个位数。而仅微软2027年的扩产就会占用全部InP产能的两位数百分比。 就像2022年的英特尔或半导体行业一样，超大规模云商可能会像当时囤积氖气一样，直接购买InP衬底+InP作为"保险"。 如果"TAM"实际上只有几亿美元，但每个超大规模云商如果不确保这种材料就会面临部署延迟，那么这就变成了一场博弈论竞标战。 在一个因$100衬底而停滞的价值$200亿的TPU部署中，超大规模云商会毫不犹豫地支付$10,000（比当前价格高出100倍）。 这就是为什么当你看到InP衬底公司有$5000万订单积压（来自2024年），同样的$5000万产能对未来来说在极端情况下可能价值$5亿、$50亿甚至更多。 这是一个"尾部风险"投资，如果超大规模云商被这种材料卡住，回报是极高的，但并非没有重大的地缘政治风险和稀释。 我不知道会发生什么，但我预计2026年InP衬底和InP原料都会出现巨大瓶颈。 那么，如果像$AXTI这样的公司拥有整个InP供应链40%的份额（来源：AXT CEO），而估值只有$7亿，你会给它什么估值？
原推 ↗英文原文
When I made my WSB post, I'm half joking about $AXTI. But not about the extreme bottleneck and InP supply shock. This is a call on critical materials game theory. If we see many historically at bottlenecks: 1. Dysprosium: ~2,300% increase (~$100/kg -> $2400/kg 2010-11) 2. Neon Gas: ~1000%-2,000% increase (2022) 3. Rhodium: ~$3,000/oz -> ~$29,000/oz (~860%) The current Indium spike compared to others? 89% : (~$440 / kg -> ~$832 / kg). Critical materials used for semiconductors like Neon Gas (semi-grade lithography lasers), spiked over 2000% because chipmakers like Intel and Samsung had stockpiled during Ukraine conflicts. They absorbed the cost because neon is a small fraction of the chip's value. Like Neon, InP is a critical "enabler" material. The cost of the wafer is small relative to the cost of the AI cluster ($100 wafer vs $30,000 GPU). Hyperscalers would happily absorb huge price increases rather than delay deployment. We haven't seen that yet with InP, but we likely will. Traditional analysts and many AI Models do not understand how to model critical bottlenecks because there's not many examples in history where an extremely cheap commodity like InP with few hundred million TAM suddenly became the most critical material for the multi-trillion+ AI buildout. Currently, hyperscalers likely placed backlogs on downstream providers Coherent / $LITE, but likely didn't realize that laser production and capacity are backlogged because of materials shortage upstream. There is a supply storage both for InP substrates ( $AXTI + Sumitomo + JX production) as well as the Indium Phosphide feedstock ( $AXTI, Vital, $DOWA) where demand exceeds supply by multiple factors. $NVDA originally contributed to the supply shortage by locking in a large percent of capacity of EML. But shortage is already pre-hyperscaler ramp, where majority of the demand will come in late 2026 into 2027 when Trainium or Maia show up. But how do you get around original chokepoint and securing your AI deployment? Buying out substrate capacity directly from ( $AXTI, Sumitomo) or going one step lower and buying InP feedstock and passing them to substrate producers so Google's TPU program doesn't stall. And similar to how other critical materials were needed for lithography lasers. Indium Phopshide and InP substates are even more critical to the entire AI buildout: 1. Nvidia: InfiniBand / NVLink (optical - 800G/1.6T EML Transceivers) - Extreme dependency on InP 2. Google: Jupiter / Apollo (optical - OCS), Extreme dependency 3. Microsoft: Azure Maia: High (800G DR4/FR4) 4. Meta: F16 / Artemis (800G) High and this is not considering other Mag7 companies like $AMZN or other companies scaling out ASICs with photonics. Currently, analysts are modeling InP companies based on TAM. For example, the total InP Wafer Market from 2024 is $183M – $205M Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence (2024) - 6-inch (150mm) Segment TAM: $65m - Projected Total InP TAM (2032): $580M – $700M Now looking at TAM for Laser-Grade Indium Phosphide Feedstock: - Polycrystalline InP Feedstock TAM: ~$300 Million - High-Purity Indium (6N/7N) Only: ~$400 Million Substrate Data: Mordor Intelligence (InP Wafer Market 2025-2030) and Straits Research. Feedstock Data: Market Report Analytics (Indium Phosphide Polycrystalline Industry Analysis 2025). This was an extremely cheap telecom product and now it's one of the most precious materials in the entire supply chain. Increasing prices 3000% would only be low single digits of BOM value to $GOOGL TPU deployments or $MSFT MAIA deployments. And the project Microsoft ramp in 2027 alone would take up double digits of all InP capacity. Like Intel or semis back in 2022, hyperscalers will likely buy insurance directly with InP substrates + InP, similar to how semis stockpiled Neon Gas. If the "TAM" really was a few hundred million, but every single hyperscaler would face deployment delays if they don't secure this material. Then this becomes a game theory bidding war. In a $20B TPU deployment is stalled because of a $100 substrate, a hyperscaler would easily pay $10,000 (100 times current prices) for it without hesitation. That's why when you look at InP substrate companies and see $50m backlog (from 2024), that same $50m worth of capacity for future ones could be valued at $500m, $5B or more in an extreme scenario. This is a "tail-risk" investment, extremely reward if hyperscalers get bottlenecked by this material, but not without significant geopolitical risk and dilution. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do expect there to be an immense bottleneck in 2026 both in InP substrates and InP feedstock. So, if companies like $AXTI owns 40% of the entire InP supply chain (source: AXT CEO) and is valued at $700m, what value would you place on it?
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AI光互连依赖磷化铟，其原料78%在中国，AXTI成关键瓶颈。
“瓶颈中的瓶颈”：磷化铟(InP) $AXTI 和 $SMTOY 构成双寡头。它们控制了全球 60% 以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底，是 AI 建设的关键瓶颈。 更令人警觉的是：这依赖于磷化铟(InP)。 磷化铟(InP)是垄断市场。78% 由 $AXTI 和中国控制。 这就是“瓶颈中的瓶颈”： 磷化铟(InP)衬底市场已是日本和中国实体之间的双寡头。然而，上游激光级原料（如住友所需）的生产主要由 $AXTI（再次出现）和中国公司主导。 主要问题在于： AI 行业极度依赖光子学来实现规模化。无论收发器是“基于磷化铟”还是“基于硅”，光源始终是：磷化铟(InP)。 随着 AI 集群从 1 万颗 GPU 扩展到 10 万颗以上，“铜缆瓶颈”迫使全面转向光互连。这使得磷化铟(InP)对 AI 规模化的重要性超过几乎任何其他单一材料。 此外，激光级原料纯度必须至少达到 6N（99.9999%）。即使是微量杂质（硅、硫、锌）也不像 LED 等其他领域那样可接受。大多数研究可能混淆了激光级原料与普通磷化铟产出。 住友是磷化铟衬底市场最著名的名字。他们在高端激光衬底领域占据巨大市场份额。但贸易数据显示，他们越来越依赖来自 $DOWA 和中国公司的外部磷化铟原料。（由于自有回收和储备，他们可能仍被计入原料所有权列表中） 所以，如果认为整个西方 AI 建设因有一家日本公司作为双寡头之一而感到安全，请三思。 瓶颈的源头被 $AXTI 和中国供应商所瓶颈。 如果我们看生产，以下是深度研究估算的控制权分布： Vital Materials - 35%（现货市场） - Vital 在 2020 年收购凡亚金属交易所库存（3600 吨铟），使其掌控全球铟市场。他们利用这一优势成为最大的磷化铟多晶生产商。主导成本领先者；控制原生铟供应（凡亚库存）。 $AXTI - 25%（北京同美晶体技术） - 主要自给自足。其大部分多晶生产被自家晶体生长炉消耗以制造晶圆。但他们也向现货市场销售原材料和化合物，是混合型玩家。 他们是全球唯一从矿山、精炼厂到磷化铟衬底产出的公司，鉴于他们同时拥有原材料和磷化铟衬底控制权，这是一个绝对疯狂的瓶颈。供应自家晶圆生产；关键的非日本来源。 株洲科能新材料 - 18% - 科能实现了“磷化铟多晶量产”并拥有“高度集成的自动多晶生产能力”。他们是中国铟出口配额的关键接收方。纯合成专家；主要出口商。 然后外部： $DOWA - 12% - 西方公司中最大的供应商（是的，日本）。在采矿（秋田锌）方面根基深厚，因此是高纯度金属有机化合物和化合物的领先供应商。 “日本企业”（住友、JX）的“来源” Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - IQE plc 的子公司。对于需要非中国原料的北约联盟供应链来说，这是关键战略资产，尽管他们目前正在进行资产清算。 InPACT（法国）- 3% - InPACT 称他们通过高压合成的水平梯度凝固(HGF)生产多晶锭，以满足（诺基亚、爱立信）和一些欧洲国防部门的要求。 世界其他地区 - 2% 这包括主要衬底制造商（Coherent、住友）、小规模研究生产以及试图打破垄断的韩国或台湾新兴玩家。 现实是，全球 78% 的激光级磷化铟原料产能位于中国。 光组件的需求已经以数倍超过供应/生产。这还是在上量之前。整个 AI 建设被两家公司瓶颈。 但 1/4 的材料来自：$AXTI。而约 1/3 的磷化铟衬底产出再次来自激光级原料。 整个 AI 建设依赖于一家随机的 7 亿美元公司，它既是瓶颈中的瓶颈，也是瓶颈本身。 扩大磷化铟衬底和激光级原料的生产既是国家安全问题。
原推 ↗英文原文
"Bottleneck within a Bottleneck": Indium Phosphide $AXTI | $SMTOY is a duopoly. They control 60%+ of the world's InP substrates as the bottleneck of the AI buildout. What's even more alarming? This is dependent on: Indium Phosphide. InP is a Monopoly. 78% control by $AXTI / China. Here's the bottleneck within a bottleneck: The InP substrates is already a duopoly between Japanese and Chinese entities. However, upstream production of laser-grade feedstock required by companies like Sumitomo is dominated by $AXTI (again) and Chinese companies. Here's the major issue: The AI industry is extremely reliant on photonics to scale. Whether, transceivers are "InP-based" or "Silicon-based" the photon source remains: Indium Phosphide. As AI clusters move from 10,000 to 100,000+ GPUs, the "copper bottleneck" is forcing a total shift to optical interconnects. This makes InP more critical to AI scaling than almost any other single material. On top of that, laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. And most research probably confuses laser-grade feedstock with regular InP outputs. Sumitomo is arguably the most famous name in the InP substrate market. They hold a massive market share in the high-end laser substrate segment. Yet trade data suggest they are increasingly reliant on external feedstock for Indium Phosphide from companies like $DOWA and from China. (They're likely still included in feedstock ownership lists bc of captive recycling and reserves) So if the entire Western AI buildout feels safe regarding a Japanese company as a duopoly, think again. The source of the bottleneck is bottlenecked by Chinese suppliers like $AXTI and Chinese companies. If we look at production there's are estimates from deep research breakdown of estimate controls: Vital Materials - 35% (Merchant) - Vital acquired Fanya Metal Exchange inventory (3,600 tonnes of Indium) in 2020 gave them large control over the global Indium market. They have leveraged this to become the largest producer of InP polycrystal. Dominant cost leader; controls raw Indium supply (Fanya stocks). $AXTI - 25% (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology) - Primarily Captive. Most of their polycrystal production is consumed by their own crystal growth furnaces to make wafers. However, they also sell raw materials and compounds to the merchant market, making them a hybrid player. They're the only company in the world that goes from mines, refineries -> InP substrate output, which is an absolutely crazy bottleneck given they own both the raw materials into InP substrate controls. Feeds own wafer production; key non-Japan source. Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18% - Keneng has achieved "mass production of polycrystalline indium phosphide" and possesses "highly integrated automatic polycrystalline production capacity". They are a key recipient of China's export quotas for Indium. Pure-play synthesis specialist; major exporter. Then Outside: $DOWA - 12% - The biggest supplier out of any Western company (yeah Japanese). Deep roots in mining (Akita Zinc), so they're the leading supplier of high-purity metal organics and compounds. The "source" for Japan Inc. (Sumitomo, JX) Wafer Technology Ltd - 5% - A subsidiary of IQE plc. Critical strategic asset for NATO-aligned supply chains that require non-Chinese feedstock, even though they're going through asset liquidations right now. InPACT (France) - 3% - InPACT states they produce polycrystalline ingots via Horizontal Gradient Freeze (HGF) using high-pressure synthesis so they meet requirements from (Nokia, Ericsson) and some European defense sectors. Rest of World - 2% This includes major substrate makers (Coherent, Sumitomo), small-scale research production, and emerging players in Korea or Taiwan who are attempting to break the monopoly. The reality is that 78% of the global capacity for laser-grade InP feedstock is located in China. The demand for optical components already exceeds supply/production by multiple factors. This is pre-ramp too. The entire AI buildout is bottlenecked by two companies. But 1/4th of the materials comes from: $AXTI. And ~1/3rd of InP Substrate outputs again comes from laser-grade feedstock. The entire AI buildout is dependent on some random $700m company that serves as both the bottleneck of a bottleneck and the bottleneck. It's both national security issue to scale up InP production both for substrate and laser-grade feedstock.
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InP衬底成AI光互连瓶颈，$AXTI/$SMTOY掌控命脉，2026年或致供应链危机。
“磷化铟(InP)瓶颈”：AI基础设施建设的关键瓶颈解析： $NVDA Blackwell、$META MTAI、$GOOGL TPU 和 $MSFT Maia 的产能爬坡，其未来取决于两家市值仅7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。 如果无法解决 InP 问题，AI“增长”故事将在2026年终结。 原因如下： AI行业正开始向光子学迁移，以部署未来的 ASIC/GPU，因为铜互连已触及物理极限。 然而，超大规模云服务商在这样做时，却将命运押注在了 InP（磷化铟）这一通用材料上，而全球仅有少数工厂能以激光器所需的纯度生产6英寸 InP 晶圆。 以 Google 及其 TPU v7 Ironwood 项目为例： Google 使用光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching, OCS)，简单来说就是由光构成的交换机。Pod 中的每一个 TPU 进行通信都需要基于 InP 的激光器。与 Google 合作的 $LITE 在很大程度上依赖 InP 衬底（如 AXT/住友）来制造这些激光器。 如果没有这些衬底，Google 的整个 Ironwood 项目不仅仅是“放缓”，而是会直接撞墙。 来自 $NVDA GB 系列、$AMZN Trainium、$MSFT Maia、$META MTAI 的现代 ASIC/GPU 都做出了同样的押注：光是未来的方向。 现在，问题出现了。 整个西方 AI 路线图目前都系于一家市值7亿美元的小盘股和一家单一的日本公司，它们生产了全球光子学所需的大部分 InP 衬底。 目前这是一个双寡头格局（粗略估计 AXT + 住友供应约60%），最近的估计显示约70%+的供应来自住友电气、AXT、Freiberger、JX 和 Visual Photonics Epitaxy（填补剩余缺口）。 无论如何，整个未来的 AI 供应链细如针尖： - Moomoo 研究：InP 市场处于“全球争夺”和“严重供应短缺”状态，NVIDIA GB200 的推出（扩展仍需大量 InP，不仅仅是机架内的 NVL72 通信）。 - 高速收发器的需求目前可能超过供应近两倍（LightCounting） - 看到创纪录的预订，但明确“受限于 InP 激光器的供应”（$COHR CEO Q3 财报电话会） - 麦肯锡：800G 模块存在 40% 到 60% 的缺口，1.6T 模块存在 30% 到 40% 的缺口。 鉴于需求的激增，这些报告可能理解得过于保守。即使按照微软对 Maia 爬坡的预测（据 UBS $MRVL 笔记，2027年 Maia 估计超过100万台），加上未来一年超过200万台 1.6T 收发器，这一体量如此之大，代表了全球衬底产量的双位数百分比。 AI 预期的“指数级增长”即将与关键材料生产的现实发生碰撞。因此，“Ironwood”、“MTIA”和“Maia”的爬坡不仅雄心勃勃，在当前材料限制下可能根本不可能实现。 即使 $COHR、JX 日本、住友、$AXTI 等以最大产能扩产（例如 $COHR / JX -> 6英寸 InP 晶圆产能提升4倍），他们可能仍无法满足超大规模云服务商日益增长的需求。特别是考虑到需求激增，例如仅 $NVDA 自身（GB200/GB300 修订版）的需求。 硅光子学等技术解决方案可以弥合差距，但这仍然主要需要外置 InP 激光器作为光源。TFLN 或量子点激光器还需要很多年才能成熟。 未来几年可能无法摆脱对 InP 的需求。 因此，芯片设计与材料可用性之间的错配创造了一个战略瓶颈，在供应链的最底层，极少数公司控制了大部分配额、定价和供应。当叠加美中关系紧张和出口管制的地缘政治风险时，这尤其危险。 话虽如此，以下是可能发生的事情： - 价格飙升：$AXTI、JX、住友的价格将大幅飙升 -> $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创（也会通过下游传导提高价格） - 超大规模云服务商将直接囤积材料，绕过传统组件采购，直接从 $AXTI、JX 日本、住友购买 InP 衬底库存，并直接委托给像 $LITE 这样的收发器制造商。 （例如，Meta 将绕过收发器公司，直接去找 AXT 或住友） - 超大规模云服务商将买断生产配额（就像 $NVDA 已经积极“锁定”EML 产能（在 InP 衬底上制造）那样）。 购买衬底制造商或生产配额将成为一种必要，以免被 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 等竞争对手饿死。 随着 TPU v7 和其他超大规模云服务商在 2026-2027 年爬坡，我们可能会进入衬底的“饥饿游戏”阶段，每个超大规模云服务商都将为了资源配额而相互吞噬对方的增长。 像 $NVDA（拥有创纪录的预分配量）这样的公司可能暂时没事，但其他项目可能会面临重大延误。 思考： 1. 一些超大规模云服务商可能没事（$NVDA）。其他如 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 需要在其他人之前买断材料和配额。 2. 行业需要加倍投入工程转型，如延长铜的使用寿命和更节省材料的方式如硅光子学(SiPh)。 3. 转向6英寸晶圆以提高良率（能缓解情况，但仍不足以满足需求） 因此，现状是，数万亿美元的 AI 扩展系于一些不起眼的7亿美元公司 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。除非架构改变，否则 AI 似乎不可避免地会因 InP 衬底产能而触及物理天花板。 2024年的瓶颈是 GPU。2025年是 HBM。2026年，主要约束很可能是光互连，特别是驱动它们的 InP 衬底。 这已成为 AI 基础设施建设中隐藏的瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
The "InP Chokepoint": The Bottleneck of the AI Buildout explanation: The future of $NVDA Blackwell, $META MTAI, $GOOGL TPU, and $MSFT Maia ramp is tied to: A $700M small cap $AXTI and $SMTOY. The AI "Growth" story ends in 2026 if there's no solution to InP. Here's why: The AI industry started its migrating to photonics for future ASIC/GPU deployments, because copper is hitting a physical limit. However, in doing so, hyperscalers traded the common material for InP (Indium Phosphide), when there's only a few factories capable of producing 6-inch InP wafers at the purity levels required for lasers. Let's take for example Google and their TPU v7 Ironwood program: Google uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), in simpler terms, switchboards made of light. For every one of those TPUs in the pod to talk, they require InP-based lasers. $LITE, which works with Google on this, largely depends on InP substrate (eg. AXT/Sumitomo) to make them. If they don't have it Google's entire Ironwood program doesn't just "slow down", it hits the wall. Modern ASICs/GPUs from $NVDA GB series, $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, $META MTAI have all made the same bet: Light is the way forward. Now, here's the issue. The entire Western AI roadmap is currently tethered to a $700M small-cap and a single Japanese company that produce majority of the world's InP substrates required for photonics. It's currently a duopoly (rough estimates majority supply ~60% between AXT + Sumitomo), with recent estimates of ~70%+ coming from Sumitomo Electric, AXT, Freiberger, JX, and Visual Photonics Epitaxy (filling in the gaps). Regardless, the entire future AI supply chain is thinner than a needle: - Moomoo Research: InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage" NVIDIA GB200 rollout (scale-out still requires tons of InP, not NVL72 within-the-rack comm). - Demand for high-speed transceivers today probably exceeds the supply by almost a factor of two (LightCounting) - Seeing record booking, but explicitly "supply-constrained by InP lasers" ( $COHR CEO Q3 ER) - McKinsey: 40% to 60% shortfall for 800G modules and a 30% to 40% shortfall for 1.6T modules. And these reports are likely understanding + very conserative given the demand ramp. Even going off Microsoft's projections on Maia ramp, ( est. 1M+ Maia by 2027 on UBS $MRVL note), with 2 million+ units of 1.6T transceivers over the next year, this volume is so large it represents a double-digit percentage of global substrate output. The projected "exponential growth" of AI is about to collide with the reality of critical material production. So, the "Ironwood", "MTIA" and "Maia" ramps aren't just ambitious, they may be impossible under current material constraints. Even if $COHR, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, $AXTI, and others, ramp up at maximum capacity (eg. $COHR / JX -> 6-inch InP wafers for 4x capacity), they still might not be able to meet the increasing demand from hyperscalers. Especailly with demand spikes occurring, eg. just for $NVDA alone (GB200/GB300 revisions). There are technical solutions like silicon photonics is one solution to bridge the gap, but this still largely requires an external InP laser as the light source. TFLN or quantum dot lasers are many many years away. There's probably no escaping the InP requirements for the next few years. So, the mismatch between chip design and material availability has created a strategic chokepoint, where if you go to the very bottom of the supply chain, very few companies control a majority of allocations, pricing, and supply. This is especially dangerous when compounded with geopolitical risks on US/China relations + export controls. That being said, here's what's probably what's going to happen: - Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight (also increases prices from pass down) - Hyperscalers will directly stockpile materials, bypassing traditional component procurement and buying InP substrate inventory from $AXTI, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, and directly to consign to transceiver manufacturers like $LITE. (eg. Meta would bypass transceiver companies and go directly to AXT or Sumitomo) - Hyperscalers will buy out production allocation ( like $NVDA that has already aggressively "locked in" EML capacity (manufactured on InP substrates). Buying a substrate manufacturer or production allocation would become a necessity to so others like $NVDA or $GOOGL doesn't starve them out. As TPU v7 and and as other hyperscalers ramp up in 2026-2027, we will likely enter a "hunger games" phase for substrates where only each hyperscaler will be cannibalizing each other's growth for resource allocation. Companies like $NVDA (with record amounts of pre-allocation), might ramp be okay for the time being, but others programs would likely face major delays. Thoughts: 1. Some hyperscalers might be fine ( $NVDA). Others like $GOOGL and $MSFT will need to buy out materials + allocation before others do. 2. Industry needs to double down on engineering shifts like copper life extension and more material efficient ways like SiPh. 3. Move to 6-inch wafers for yields (eases things, but still not enough to meet demand) So the way things are now, the multi-trillion dollar AI scaling are tethered to some obscure $700m company $AXTI and $SMTOY. It seems inevitable that AI will hit the physical ceiling because of InP substrate capacity unless architectures change. In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it was HBM. In 2026, the primary constraint will likely be the optical interconnect, and specifically, the InP substrates that power them. This has now become the hidden bottleneck of the AI buildout.
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AXTI和住友垄断InP衬底，或成AI光子化最大瓶颈。
警告：整个AI行业可能会受到两家公司的瓶颈制约： 1. $AXTI（市值7亿美元） 2. $SMTOY（市值317亿美元） 这两家公司控制了全球60-70%以上的磷化铟(InP)衬底市场。 未来$NVDA、$GOOGL TPU v7集群、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN等超大规模数据中心集群都需要基于InP的激光器和接收器。 $AVGO、$LITE、$COHR使用电吸收调制激光器(EML)用于800G/1.6T光模块、分布反馈(DFB)激光器和其他光基础设施。 没有InP衬底，供应链就会停滞。 在查看了从TPU到Maia的物料清单(BOM)后，看起来未来的专用集成电路(ASIC)+GPU+超大规模部署严重依赖光子学。 而这两家供应商可能会冻结全球InP衬底市场，涵盖几乎所有领域： - 超大规模光器件（TPU集群等） - 光模块（5g，数据） - 激光雷达(LiDAR)（自动驾驶出租车，无人机，军事） - 光模块（互连集群） - 硅光子学激光芯片（英伟达未来的共封装光学(CPO)和英特尔/博通硅光子学引擎使用InP连续波激光阵列。） 由于这些公司占据了市场供应的大多数： -AXTI（估计~30-35%） -住友（估计~30%） - JX日本（估计10-15%） 仅此而已。（例如，Yole 2021年的行业报告指出“住友电气+AXT共同拥有‘超过75%’的InP衬底市场”） 超大规模/AI正在向光子学发展，但整个AI行业是脆弱的。 如果$AXTI或$SMTOY中的任何一家停止供应材料，整个未来的AI建设就会瘫痪。更疯狂的是，一家7亿美元的公司可能成为这一切的中心。 随着AI行业向光子学转变，InP衬底可能会成为与高带宽内存(HBM)并列的最大瓶颈之一。
原推 ↗英文原文
Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.
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评论NVDA收购案，指出挑战者常因威胁领导者而被收购。
@JonathanRoss321 恭喜完成对 $NVDA 的 200 亿美元收购。我原本有些希望你会成为颠覆者并继续独立扩展 LPU，但我想，当任何公司成为对行业领导者的威胁时，他们就会被收购。
原推 ↗英文原文
@JonathanRoss321 Congrats on the $20B $NVDA acquisition. I was sort of hoping you would be the disruptor and continue scaling the LPU independently but I guess when any company becomes a threat to the leader they get bought out.
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解析微软Maia 300供应链，指出AAOI和MRVL为光模块核心受益者。
个人研究：$MSFT Maia 300 供应链。 根据 $MRVL 的报告，瑞银(UBS)预计2027年前 Maia 出货量将超100万颗。 预计 Maia ASIC 量产将带来超180亿美元流向供应商。 资金流向如下： 1. $MRVL - 营收80-120亿美元（~30-40%利润率），作为主要受益者。他们设计数字底层架构（SerDes，互连），从 SK Hynix 购买 HBM4 内存，支付 TSMC 的 2nm 晶圆和 CoWoS 封装费用，并将成品模块卖给微软。 当 Maia 在2026年底至2027年初开始量产时，鉴于其带来的巨大营收，Marvell 可能会迎来大幅重估。 2. 光网络架构：约30亿至40亿美元 主要受益者：Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI)，Coherent ($COHR)，Innolight Maia 集群需要1:1或更高的光收发器与GPU比例。对于1.6T速度（Maia 300所需），每个节点的光学内容估计超过3,000美元（每个加速器约6个800G/1.6T模块）。 这里 AAOI 大获全胜：与市值700亿美元的 $MRVL 不同，$AAOI 是一家25亿美元的公司。即使只获得这块30亿美元蛋糕的20-30%（6-9亿美元），也将使其当前年化经常性收入(ARR)翻三倍，但具体份额取决于其德州磷化铟(InP)工厂的扩产情况（可能更多或更少）。 因此，Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) 和 Marvell 的光学 DSP 业务是隐形赢家，受益于连接这些巨型芯片所需的1.6T升级周期。 像 $TSM 这样的公司会增加30-40亿美元营收，但相对于其1000多亿美元的营收来说，这只是中等体量。（仅说明 TSM 体量之大） 硅基 BOM 拆解： 1. 计算逻辑 (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (设计), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. 内存 (估计 HBM4? (6-8层堆叠), 估计值) SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O 与缓存 Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. 先进封装 - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. 散热方案 - 微流道冷板 / TIM ($200-400) 6. 杂项 (大电流电感, 电容) ($150-$200) 硅基 BOM 总计：$7,860 - $10,550 这非常粗略，未涉及无源器件/基板/盖板 (Ibiden, Unimicron)，测试与组装 (Advantest, Teradyne) 等。 现在如果我们深入看光学 BOM 以及 $MSFT 在空心光纤和 OCS 方面的布局： DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh 引擎 (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) 激光源 (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) 收发器组装: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) 光纤布线: 空心光纤 / MPO ($MSFT) ($200 - $300) 光学 BOM 总计~$2,300 - $3,600~占系统总成本的25% 我们已经确立 $LITE 和 Innolight 是光子学的两大主要玩家（在 $NVDA 和所有超大规模云厂商 ASIC 中） 然而，$AAOI 的市值仅为 $MRVL 和 $LITE 的一小部分，作为小盘股，Maia 的机会对其股票更具变革性。 另需注意，富邦研究(Fubon Research)估计 Maia300 芯片将于2026年底开始生产，约30万至40万颗，2027年增至120万至150万颗，但我们仅采用瑞银的~100万颗数据。（因此实际爬坡可能更多） 但向1.6T的转变以及对空心光纤/OCS网络高功率激光器的特定需求是一个巨大的顺风。如果 AAOI 获得 Maia 光学 BOM 的一部分，他们到2027年仅从一个客户那里就能使 ARR 翻三倍或四倍（不包括 $AMZN）。 风险：主要风险是资格认证失败。如果他们的激光器未能通过微软严格的可靠性测试，他们可能会被 $LITE 一夜之间取代。 然而，Maia 300 的量产标志着超大规模云厂商 ASIC 交易的开始，关键供应商已就位。 从2026-2027年底这一特定 ASIC 中受益最大的公司？ 看起来是 $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM 和 SK Hynix。 警告：这是基于公开材料+深度研究+映射的推测性研究+建模。没有公开的新闻证实这些信息，不要将其视为事实。
原推 ↗英文原文
Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain. On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027. An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp. Here's where it goes: 1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing (SerDes, interconnects), buy the HBM4 memory from SK Hynix, pay TSMC for the 2nm wafers and CoWoS packaging, and sell the finished module to Microsoft. We'll likely see a large re-rating in Marvell when it comes time for Maia ramp late 2026, early 2027, especially given how much revenue this brings in. 2. The Optical Fabric: ~$3 Billion to $4 Billion Primary Beneficiaries: Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ), Coherent ( $COHR ), Innolight Maia clusters require a 1:1 or higher ratio of transceivers to GPUs. For 1.6T speeds (required for Maia 300), the optical content per node is estimated at $3,000+ (approx. 6x 800G/1.6T modules per accelerator). Here AAOI Wins Big: Unlike $MRVL (which is $70B), $AAOI is a $2.5B company. Capturing even 20-30% of this $3B pie ($600M-$900M) would triple + their current ARR, but the amount captured is dependent on their InP Texas Fab scaling (could be a lot more or less). So Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Marvell's optical DSP business are the silent winners, riding the 1.6T upgrade cycle required to interconnect these massive chips. Companies like $TSM gain another $3-4B revenue, but that's medium volume compared to their $100B+ revenue. (just speaking to how much of a giant TSM is) For the silicon BOM breakdown: 1. Compute Logic (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (Design), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. Memory (est. HBM4? (6-8 stacks), estimate). SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O & Cache Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. Advanced Packaging - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. Thermal Solution - Microfluidic Cold Plate / TIM ($200-400) 6. Misc (High-Current Inductors, Caps) ($150-$200) Total Silicon BOM: $7,860 - $10,550 This is really high level doesn't go into Passive/Substrate/Lid (Ibiden, Unimicron), Test & Assembly (Advantest, Teradyne), etc. Now if we look deeper at optical BOM and what $MSFT is doing with hollow core fiber and OCS: DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh Engine (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) Laser Source (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) Transceiver Assembly: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) Fiber Cabling: Hollow Core Fiber / MPO ( $MSFT) ($200 - $300) Total Optical BOM~$2,300 - $3,600~25% of Total System Cost We've established $LITE and Innolight as the two major players in photonics already (within $NVDA and every single hyperscaler ASIC) However, $AAOI MC is a fraction of $MRVL and $LITE as a microcap, making the Maia opportunity far more transformative for its stock. Someting also to note is Fubon Research est Maia300 chip is set to start prod in late 2026 with about 300,000 to 400,000 units, increasing to 1.2 to 1.5 million units in 2027, but we're just going with the ~1M figure from UBS. (so might ramp up more) But the shift to 1.6T and the specific requirement for high-power lasers for hollow-core/OCS networks is a big tailwind. If AAOI captures a portion Maia optical BOM, they triple or quadruple their ARR from one client alone by 2027 (not including $AMZN). Risk: The primary risk is qualification failure. If their lasers fail Microsoft’s rigorous reliability testing, they could be replaced by $LITE overnight. However, Maia 300 ramp signals the start of the hyperscaler ASIC trade and key suppliers are there. The companies that benefit the most from this specific ASIC late 2026-2027? Looks like $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM, and SK Hynix. Warning: This is speculative research + modeling given public materials + deep research + mapping. There is no public breakdown and news of this information, do not treat it as a fact.
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InP成2026新瓶颈，市场重估AAOI与LITE在超大规模云ASIC中的价值。
$AAOI 自今日发布论点以来上涨 24%，$LITE 上涨 5%。 从物料清单(BOM)分析来看，LITE（市值 270 亿美元）因光路交换(OCS)技术而向 TPU Ironwood 倾斜，同时也受益于 NVDA 及所有专用集成电路(ASIC)。 AAOI（市值 25 亿美元）则主要受益于 MSFT MAIA 的量产爬坡和 Amazon Trainium。 磷化铟(InP)就像高带宽内存(HBM)一样，将成为 2026 年的瓶颈，因为它们是这些部署中激光器使用的基础材料。 类似于美光和 SK 海力士的内存瓶颈，市场注意力可能会转向 InP 晶圆厂，例如 $AAOI，它是美国少数几家此类工厂之一（还有 COHR, Macom）。 但相比之下，$LITE 由于 Google TPU 的成功（来自 Meta 和 Anthropic 的采购订单），今年迄今(YTD)已上涨 362%，而 $AAOI 今年迄今仅上涨 7%。 我们主要看到这种情况是因为散户或媒体对 $AMZN Trainium 或 $MSFT Maia 部署缺乏关注，这些部署预计将在 2026-2027 年大规模量产。 然而，由于每个超大规模云服务商都希望降低其自有云平台的推理成本，它们很可能都会成功。 如果我们看到其他超大规模云服务商采用 OCS 以实现 TPU 达到的优化性能，鉴于 $LITE 在该特定领域的垄断地位，预计其估值将比现在进一步提升。 然而，如果我们看到 $MSFT Maia 量产（鉴于 $AAOI 可能正在为他们开发新架构），以及 $AMZN Trainium 量产（40 亿美元权证 + 采购订单），预计 $AAOI 将重新估值。 光电子学和 InP 将成为像内存一样的新瓶颈。 我们可能会看到投资流向下游玩家，如 $COHR、中际旭创(Innolight)、$LITE，以及 2026 年针对特定超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的隐藏杠杆标的如 $AAOI 这一主题。 市场目前正在奖励 Google TPU 供应链，但可能错过了其他超大规模云服务商 ASIC 的量产机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today. From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs. AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium. InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the foundational materials used for lasers in these deployments. Similar to memory bottlenecks with Micron and SK Hynix, we’ll likely see attention drawn to InP fabs, such as $AAOI, which happens to be one of the sole ones in America (COHR,Macom) But compared to $LITE that is up 362% YTD due to the success of Google’s TPU (from Meta and Anthropic purchase orders), $AAOI is only up 7% YTD. We’re largely seeing this because there’s a lack of retail or media attention on the $AMZN Trainium or $MSFT Maia deployments, which are largely expected to ramp up in 2026-2027. However they’re all likely to succeed due to each hyperscaler wanting to lower costs of inference for their own cloud platform. If we see other hyperscalers adopt OCS for optimized performance that the TPU achieved, expect $LITE to re-rate more than they have now given their monopoly in that specific segment. However, if we see $MSFT Maia ramp up (given $AAOI is likely developing a new architecture for them), and $AMZN Trainium ramp up ($4B warrant + purchase orders), expect $AAOI to rerate. Photonics and InP will be the new bottleneck like memory. We’ll likely see investments pour down stream to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and hidden levered plays on specific hyperscaler ASICs like $AAOI as a theme in 2026. The market is currently rewarding the Google TPU supply chain but might be missing other hyperscaler ASIC ramps.
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分析LITE与AAOI在AI芯片供应链中的价值及2026年前景
是的，$LITE 的表现令人惊叹，看到它出现在每一款 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 部署中后更是如此。 然后，当你进行物料清单(BOM)分析并建模 TPU/GPU 部署时，它即使在历史高点(ATH)看起来也被低估了。 接着是 $AAOI，它与 LITE 类似，但更侧重于 AMZN | MSFT 的 ASIC。它是美国少数几家磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂之一，其扩张规模将取决于 Trainium 和 Maia 的表现。它的市值也只有 25 亿美元。 光子学/存储领域在 2026 年将会极其疯狂。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah $LITE is incredible after seeing how it's in every single ASIC + $NVDA blackwell deployments. Then once you do BOM analysis and model TPU/GPU deployments, it looks undervalued even at ATHs. Then there's $AAOI, which is similar to LITE but levered toward AMZN | MSFT ASICs. It's one of the only InP Fabs in US and will scale up depending on how Trainium and Maia do. It's a $2.5B MC too. Photonics/Memory is going to be extremely crazy in 2026.
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LITE因OCS垄断地位及供应瓶颈，受益于AI巨头需求。
$LITE 正处于“刚好合适”的黄金时刻，因为所有的 $GOOGL TPU、超大规模云厂商的 ASIC 以及 $NVDA Blackwell 架构都依赖它。目前他们因需求旺盛而面临供应瓶颈（类似于美光 Micron）。据我了解，光子学领域目前呈双寡头垄断格局（$COHR 和 Lite）。然而，在光电路交换(OCS)领域——这是 Google TPU 架构为实现更高性能所采用的技术——凭借专利组合和技术优势，$LITE 处于垄断地位。如果 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 最终也采用 OCS，那对 LITE 来说将是绝佳时刻。超大规模云厂商在磷化铟(InP)晶圆厂方面的垂直整合在短期内难度极大。未来几年内不太可能有人能取代他们（也许 2027-2028 年 $AVGO 的竞争会加剧），但就目前而言，他们只是受限于供应能力。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron). From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite). However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE. Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.
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对比LITE与AAOI，看好AAOI在MSFT和AMZN ASIC中的重估潜力。
“太晚了”。 $LITE 是一家市值 260 亿美元的公司在未来 $GOOGL TPU 部署以及 $NVDA / $AMZN 等其他 GPU/ASIC 的核心位置。 它占据 Google TPU v7 8-12% 的物料清单(BOM)份额。这就像说当 $NVDA 市值达到 1 万亿美元时它“太晚了”一样。 但如果你想要另一个参与者，那就是 $AAOI。 $MSFT 正在 Maia ASIC 中使用它们，并且很可能正在与 $AAOI 创建一种新架构。 它们还与 $AMZN 拥有 40 亿美元的认股权证+购买协议。 所以这更像是一个做多 $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC 的玩法，但市场尚未真正关注这两家超大规模云服务商的 ASIC。 如果有任何关于这两者的利好消息，$AAOI 将极快地重估。 尽管据报道 $META 将购买大量产品，但每个人都跳上了 $GOOGL TPU 的顺风车。
原推 ↗英文原文
"Late". $LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs. 8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC. But if you want want another player, $AAOI. $MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI. They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN. So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet. If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast. Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.
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Lumentum凭借AI光网络垄断地位，有望随巨头资本支出增长实现市值翻倍。
$LITE 的投资逻辑：AI 领域的隐形垄断。 Lumentum 今年迄今上涨 316%，但到 2027 年可能上涨 1000%+。 美光 ($300B) 或台积电 ($1.5T) 位于每个部署的 TPU/GPU 中心。 但 $LITE 也是如此，而其市值仅为 $26B。 在谷歌的每一个 TPU 中，$LITE 为其市值创造了惊人的利润。 这是因为它是光路交换 (OCS) + 光网络的标准。 它也存在于： - $NVDA Blackwell - $AMZN Trainium - 以及其他超大规模云服务商的 ASIC 中。 Lumentum 位于光子学芯片部署的“神圣三位一体”中。 对于每笔 TPU 资本支出，$LITE 占据 8-12%。对于每个 Nvidia GPU，$LITE 占据 ~2-3%（在 InnoLight 和其他公司之间分配，所以计算有点复杂）。 仅针对 NVDA GPU 部署的 BOM 粗略估算： NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200)： HBM 内存：~50–55%（SK 海力士主导，美光，三星） 逻辑（GPU 裸片）：~25-30%（$TSM 4NP） CoWoS 封装：~13-18% $TSM 光网络：~3–5%（InnoLight, Lumentum, Coherent） PCB/电源：5% 谷歌 TPU “Ironwood” TPU v7： HBM 内存：38-42% 三星 / SK 海力士 逻辑裸片：TSM ~28-33% 设计/I.O：8-10% 联发科 光网络：10-14%（$LITE 主要，$COHR 次要） 光交换：2-4% $LITE $LITE 估计的总集群份额：~8–12% 仅供参考，谷歌的“光”BOM 份额（8–12%）是一个异常值，源于其独特的光路交换 (OCS) 垄断。 粗略估算： 到 2027 年谷歌 TPU 支出 $40B。$LITE 占据 10%（30-40% 利润率），仅来自谷歌的自由现金流超过 $1.5B，仅其主要客户就带来 17 倍市盈率。（分析师在预测 TPU 支出增长时可能严重偏离。） 这甚至不包括其在 $AMZN Trainium、$NVDA Blackwell、$MSFT Maia 和其他芯片部署中的份额。 $LITE 目前位于每个 TPU/GPU 未来芯片部署的中心，并从中分得一杯羹。 唯一的 downside 是，虽然他们现在是明确的市场领导者，但 $AVGO 和 $COHR 很可能在 2027-2028 年准备好竞争。然而…… 人们说“$26B，历史新高，为什么现在买”。 这就是原因。他们参与了未来每一个部署的 TPU/GPU/ASIC。 如果谷歌 TPU 和其他芯片支出增加，且 LITE 从每个美元支出中占据 2-3%（来自 $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT）或 8-12%（来自 $GOOGL），$LITE 最终很容易超过 $60B+。
原推 ↗英文原文
The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI. Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027. Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed. But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC. In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes unbelievable amounts of profit for their marketcap. That's because it's the standard for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) + optical networking. It's also in - $NVDA Blackwell -$AMZN Trainium - and other hyperscaler ASICs. Lumentum sits in the holy trinity of every single chip deployment for photonics. And for every TPU capex spent, $LITE takes 8-12%. For every Nvidia GPU, $LITE takes ~2-3% (split between Innolight and some others, so the math gets a bit complex). But some napkin math on NVDA GPU deployments alone for BOM: NVIDIA Blackwell (GB200): HBM memory: ~50–55% (SK Hynix (Lead), Micron, Samsung) Logic (GPU Die): ~25-30% ( $TSM 4NP) CoWoS Packaging: ~13-18% $TSM Optics/Network: ~3–5% (Innolight, Lumentum, Coherent) PCB/Power: 5% For Google TPIU "Ironwood" TPU v7: HBM Memory: 38-42% Samsung / SK Hynix Logic Die: TSM ~28-33% Design/I.O: 8-10% MediaTek Optical Network: 10-14% ( $LITE (primary), $COHR secondary) Optical Switch: 2-4% $LITE $LITE est. total cluster share: ~8–12% Just an FYI, Google's "Optical" BOM share (8–12%) is an anomaly due to their unique Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) monopoly. Just for some napkin math: $40B Google TPU spend by 2027. $LITE captures 10% (30-40% margins), $1.5B+ FCF from Google alone, 17x earnings from just their primary customer. (analysts are probably extremely off with projecting TPU spend scaling). Not even including their split from $AMZN Trainium, $NVDA Blackwell, $MSFT Maia, and other chip deployments. $LITE is in the center of every single TPU/GPU future chip deployment for now and takes a cut. The only downside is they're the clear market leader now, but $AVGO and $COHR are likely set up to compete by 2027-2028. However... People say "$26B, ATH, why are you buying now". This is the reason. They're involved in every future single TPU/GPU/ASIC deployed. $LITE could end up easily over $60B+ if Google TPUs, and other chip spend ramps up and LITE takes a 2-3% (from $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT) or 8-12% cut (from $GOOGL) for every single dollar spent.
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Circle作为美元数字化延伸，具国家安全和网络效应，建议极度做多。
1000%+ 的 Circle 论点：USDC 与私营部门美联储的崛起。 Circle $CRCL，连同 $NBIS 等标的，是我进入 2026 年高确信度的多头持仓，原因只有一个： Circle 已成为美国财政部的私营部门延伸。 在 180 亿美元市值下。 这是一个 10 倍以上的世代性机会，利用美元变得可编程且纯数字化的货币转变。 Circle 不是一家金融科技(Fintech)公司。它不应像传统公司那样被估值。作为数字印钞机，它是美国政府的国家安全利益。 以下是做多 Circle 的定性理由： 1. Circle 购买美国国债并作为美国财政部的私营部门延伸收取利息。 - 随着 USDC 市值扩张，Circle 购买更多短期美国国债。他们正成为世界上最大的单一美国债务持有者之一。 - 在 BRICS 和其他集团试图去美元化的时代，美国政府需要一种数字美元出口。Circle 将美元霸权瞬间传播给全球任何人，绕过当地银行限制。 - Circle 成为对其他外币（低利率或贬值）的有效“做空” -> 将本地货币转换为 Circle (USD) -> 买入美国债务。 对于 $CRCL：美国政府无法承受 Circle 失败。它拥有传统金融科技所没有的隐性“国家支持”战略护城河。 在 180 亿美元的估值下。 2. 网络效应： Circle + USDC 已经捕获了网络效应。 - 现在有数百种稳定币。Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe 以及更多即将推出的。但 Circle + USDC 已经捕获了美国市场的网络效应（USDT 仍在国际上广泛使用）。 现在每个人都用 Circle USDC 结算，无论是 Visa、Stripe、银行还是更多。网络效应是 Meta/Reddit 拥有护城河的原因。也是为什么比特币市值超过 1.5 万亿美元。以及为什么 USDC 不会被新稳定币取代。 USDC 已成为结算、发行和存储的标准，并吞噬了所有以前的结算方法，如 T+2 或更长的 Swift/ACH 轨道。 Circle 在采用和公认的结算基础设施方面确保了终极网络效应。 随着使用量的增长 -> Circle 印更多的钱。 3. 私营到公开的滞后： 很多人不知道，但我私下也帮助硅谷风险投资公司进行尽职调查，针对金融科技种子/A/B 轮投资。 从个人经验来看，我看到创纪录的资金涌入 USDC 相关公司：无论是稳定币新银行（如由 USDC 驱动的 Mecury 银行）还是带有 USDC 的结算基础设施。 当然还有许多关于私营部门收购的公开新闻，例如 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购 bridge，或银行开始研究 M&A 以创建 USDC 相关产品。 多年前这是 AI，我们看到了从 Anthropic 到 NVDA 在一两年后崛起的成果。 现在是稳定币 + USDC。 公开市场是滞后指标，它们尚未定价 USDC 成为公认结算轨道的必然性（比特币是数字黄金，USDC 是美元/结算）。 我们看到了 Circle 主要因浮动头寸动态而抛售，但我们可能会看到对冲基金试图积累对美元未来印钞机的控制权。 _ $CRCL 不仅仅是一只“加密股票”或“金融科技公司”，也不应像它们那样被估值（尤其是根据降息定价盈利能力）。 它基本上是美国美元的私营部门数字化。 自 GENIUS 法案以来，我们看到像 Circle 这样的公司申请特许状，并将 USDC 有效地连接到联邦储备系统。 现在我们终于看到了新的央行数字货币(CBDC) 的开始，但这次是通过 Circle 发行和私有化。 在 $84（180 亿美元市值）极度做多 Circle，作为地缘政治工具、标准结算货币以及美国财政部的私营部门延伸。
原推 ↗英文原文
The 1000%+ Circle Thesis: USDC and the Rise of a Private-Sector Federal Reserve. Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026 for one reason: Circle has become the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. At a $18B MC. A 10x+ generational opportunity capitalizing on the monetary shift on the Dollar becoming programmable and purely digital. Circle is not a fintech company. It shouldn't be valued like a traditional one. It's a national security interest of the US Government as the digital money printer. Here's the qualitative reasons to long Circle: 1. Circle Buys US Debt and collects interest as the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. - As USDC market cap expands, Circle buys more short-dated US Treasuries. They are becoming one of the largest single holders of US debt in the world. - In an era where BRICS and other blocs are trying to de-dollarize, the US government needs a digital dollar export. Circle spreads USD hegemony instantly to anyone globally, bypassing local banking restrictions. - Circle becomes an effective "short" against other foreign currencies (with low interest or devaluation) -> convert local currencies to Circle (USD) -> buy into the US debt. For $CRCL: The US government cannot afford to let Circle fail. It has an implicit "state-backed" strategic moat that traditional fintechs do not have. At an $18B valuation. 2. Network effect: Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect. - There's hundreds of stablecoins now. Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe, and many more to come. But Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect for the US markets (USDT, is still widely used internationally). Everyone settles with Circle USDC now, whether that's Visa, Stripe, Banks, or more. The network effect is why Meta/Reddit have their moats. Or why Bitcoin has a 1.5T+ market cap. And exactly why USDC won't be displaced by new stablecoins. USDC has already become the standard for settlement, issuance, storage, and cannibalizes all former settlement methods from T+2 or more rails such as Swift/ACH. Circle has secured the ultimate network effect both in adoption + agreed upon settlement infrastructure. With this, as more usage grows -> Circle prints more money. 3. The Private-to-Public Lag: Lot of people don't know but I help SV venture capital firms with DD as well for fintech Seed/Series A/B type investments on the side. From personal experience, I've seen a record breaking amount of funding pour into USDC-related companies: whether that's Stablecoin Neobanks (banks like Mecury, just powered by USDC) or settlement infrastructure with USDC. And of course many public-news about private sector acquisitions such as Stripe acquisition of bridge for $1.1B or Banks starting to look into M&A to create USDC related products. Many years ago this was AI and we've seen it come into fruition from Anthropic to NVDA's rise a year or two later. Now it's stablecoins + USDC. Public markets are lagging indicators and they haven't priced in the inevitability of USDC becoming the agreed upon settlement rail (Bitcoin for digital gold, USDC for USD/settlement). We've seen a selloff of Circle mainly due to float dynamics, but we'll likely see hedge funds try and accumulate control of the future money printer of the USD. _ $CRCL isn't just a "crypto stock" or "fintech company" and shouldn't be valued like one (especially pricing profitability from interest rates cuts). It's basically the private sector digitization of the US dollar. Ever since the GENIUS act, we're seeing companies like Circle file for charters, and effectively connect USDC into the federal reserve system. And now we're finally seeing the start of a new Central Bank Digital Currency, but this time issued and privatized through Circle. Go extraordinarily long on Circle at $84 ($18B MC) as both a geopolitical instrument, standard settlement currency, and as the private sector extension of US Treasury.
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感谢 LITE 提醒，并把它和 CRDO/ALAB 的连接层逻辑并列
感谢提醒 $LITE。 我之前没有意识到它对 $NVDA Blackwell、$GOOGL TPU 和 $AMZN Trainium 芯片有多关键。 离谱的是，它竟然处在每家 hyperscaler 的单 GPU/TPU/ASIC 核心环节里（这也是为什么它是高信念标的）。 至于 $CRDO，它和 $ALAB 类似，都是高 Nvidia 式利润率、三位数同比增长，以及依赖 hyperscaler 连接需求的逻辑。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for the $LITE shoutout. I didn't realize how instrumental it was to $NVDA blackwell, $GOOGL TPUs, and $AMZN Trainium chips. Insane how it's part the core of single GPU/TPU/ASIC from every hyperscaler (hence why it's high-conviction) As for $CRDO, similar ground to $ALAB regarding high-Nvidia like margins, triple digit Y/Y growth, and hyperscaler dependencies for connectivity.
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OpenAI 高估值融资改善 AI 数据中心与供应链风险偏好
最新消息：OpenAI 在完成 5000 亿美元估值、100 亿美元以上的 Amazon 轮融资后，正在以 7500 亿美元估值继续融资。 $CRWV：+15.85% $NBIS：+10.28% 有了这笔交易，像 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 这样的公司，在为 OpenAI 的资本开支需求建设容量时，对手方风险在结构上降低了，因为 OpenAI 的资产负债表更强了。 像 Nebius 这种算法上和行业龙头绑定的公司，也因此上涨。 从 Rocket Lab 到 Bitcoin，高 beta 资产普遍上涨。 最近因为日元套息交易解除，加上今天大量未平仓合约到期，市场出现了极端波动。 不过，AI 交易的基本面（尤其是 Micron 神级财报显示了极强内存需求）以及 Neocloud 的基本面，仍然比以往更好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Latest news: OpenAI is raising funds at a $750B valuation after their $10B+ Amazon round at $500B. $CRWV: +15.85% $NBIS: +10.28% With this deal, companies like Coreweave and Oracle structurally have less counterparty risk with OpenAI's stronger balance sheet to fund capex requirements. Companies like Nebius that are algorithmically tied to the sector leaders are up as a result. High-Beta Assets from Rocketlab to Bitcoin are up across the board. There was extreme volatility recently with the Yen carry trade unwinding + large open interest expiring today. However, the fundamentals of the AI trade (especially with Micron's godlike ER showing extreme memory demand), and Neoclouds remain better than ever.
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Amazon 投资 OpenAI 对 AI 数据中心和 ASIC 供应链的连锁影响
最新：Amazon 的 100 亿美元 OpenAI 融资，以及 AI 供应链的涟漪效应。 $AMZN 将以 5000 亿美元以上估值向 OpenAI 投资 100 亿美元以上。 为什么这是 AI 股票的重大结构性变化： 1. AI 数据中心交易去风险：（$ORCL、$CRWV、$APLD、$CORZ） 结合前面提到的 SPEED 法案，影响 Neocloud 的主要问题是： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED 法案直接处理了第 1 和第 2 点，但没有处理 OpenAI 相关的第 3 点。 影响 Oracle、CoreWeave 等最大 Neocloud/数据中心提供商的主要担忧，是它们为 OpenAI 这个对手方投入了巨额 capex，而 OpenAI 本身没有足够资金承诺这些资本开支。 但现在，随着 Amazon 新融资，第 3 点开始被解决。 - 新增 100 亿美元资金，加上 Amazon 的资产负债表支持 ChatGPT 的创造者，OpenAI 对 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 的早期承诺开始获得兜底。 - 下游影响：这直接降低了 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 的风险，因为它们在为 OpenAI 建设容量。再往下两层，依赖 CoreWeave 作为租户的 $APLD 或 $CORZ 也会被去风险。 由于 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 被视为“行业龙头”，这会立刻改变整个 Neocloud 板块的情绪，包括 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF 等。 2. Hyperscaler AI capex 浪潮（$AMZN、$MRVL、Alchip）： 我们之前看到，$AVGO ASIC backlog 之后，市场开始担心 hyperscaler 支出减弱，很多相关玩家因此大跌。 但这笔交易的关键条件之一，是 OpenAI 采用 Amazon 自研 Trainium ASIC。这代表非 Nvidia 集群会激进扩张。 - 设计与 IP：直接利好 Marvell（$MRVL）和 Alchip 等 ASIC 设计伙伴。 - 定制硅集群需要大量光互连和 HBM。这会为光子（$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR）和内存（$MU、SK 海力士）创造新的 capex 超级周期。 - 代工厂，比如 $TSM。 以及更多参与 hyperscaler ASIC 建设的相关公司。 唯一输家？Nvidia（$NVDA）。 Amazon 正在成功用它庞大的资产负债表，迫使领先 LLM 摆脱对 H100/Blackwell 的依赖，同时推动整条 AI 供应链。 核心结论是，AI 交易由世界上最富有的公司资助，比如 $AMZN；OpenAI 也正在证明，它可以通过出让股权来扩大资产负债表，以满足需求。 做多 AI 板块。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect. $AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks: 1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ ) With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, the main issues affecting Neoclouds were: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. the Speed bill directly addresses #1 and #2. But not #3 with OpenAI. The main fears affecting the biggest Neocloud/Datanceter providers like Oracle, Coreweave was their immense capex spend for a counterparty (OpenAI) that doesn't have the funding to commit to it's capex spend. But now, #3 is starting to be addressed with the new Amazon funding. - With a fresh $10 Billion and Amazon’s balance sheet backing the creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI's early commitments to Oracle and CoreWeave are now starting to be backstopped. - Downstream Impact: This directly derisks companies like $CRWV and $ORCL, who are building capacity for OpenAI. And by two hops, companies like $APLD or $CORZ that rely on Coreweave as a tenant. As Coreweave and Oracle are seen as the "sector leaders" this immediately changes sentiment across the whole Neocloud sector from $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and others as well. 2. The HyperScaler AI capex wave ( $AMZN, $MRVL, Alchip): We've seen fears after $AVGO ASIC backlog about hyperscaler spending waning. And many related players tanked on the news. However, a key condition of this deal is OpenAI’s adoption of Amazon’s proprietary Trainium ASICs. This signals an aggressive scaling of non-Nvidia clusters. - Design & IP: Direct benefit to ASIC design partners like Marvell ( $MRVL ) and Alchip. - Custom silicon clusters require massive optical interconnects and HBM. This creates a new capex supercycle for photonics ( $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR ) and memory ( $MU, SK Hynix). - Foundries such as $TSM. and many more related companies involved in the buildout of hyperscaler ASICs. The only loser? Nvidia ( $NVDA ). Amazon is successfully using its massive balance sheet to force the leading LLM to diversify away from H100/Blackwell dependence and boosting the whole AI supply chain alongside it. The main takeaway is that the AI trade is funded by the richest companies in the world, such as $AMZN, and OpenAI is showing it can scale up its balance sheet to meet requirements by trading off equity. Go long on the AI sector.
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周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
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认为 FinX 散户泡沫短期拥挤但长期方向常常正确
FinX 是泡沫。/r/wallstreetbets 上的交易员也是。 人们都持有同样的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA 等。 但是：这是好事。 这些年我一遍又一遍看到这种情况。 短期看，当人们买 1-3 个月期权时，他们会在这些“泡沫化”和拥挤交易里亏钱。 但从一年后的长期看，散户对这些公司的方向判断往往是对的。 这才是最重要的部分。 例如，一两年前 $NVDA 刚起飞时，$TSM（140-150 美元）是 Reddit 上最热门的 ticker。 散户方向上看对了，因为 $TSM 是整个 AI 建设的中心。 短期里，所有人都亏钱了，因为他们买了两个月后的 call，而股票横盘，甚至跌到 127 美元。 一年后，它涨了 100%+，那些 call 本来会涨 10 倍。 $MU 也一样。Reddit 知道内存是 AI 热潮的重要组成部分，于是都挤进同一笔交易。 但 $MU 在 100 美元横盘了一整年，大家都亏钱了。 快进到现在，从 Micron 到 SK 海力士，内存成了最热门的东西，股价从 65 美元冲到 245 美元，涨了 200%+。 散户方向上是对的，但中途投降了。 我确信，像 $NBIS 这样的股票，现在正处于散户买了太多短期期权，然后像当年 $TSM 或 $MU 下跌时那样，连股票也一起投降的阶段。 但快进一年，这可能就是 $TSM、$MU 或 $HOOD（18 美元时）那种 3-4 倍回报，当初散户方向其实一直是对的。 我相信 FinX 散户股票“泡沫”在较短时间框架里未必正确，因为 OI、宏观波动和做市商会主导价格；但长期方向上往往是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
FinX is a bubble. Same with traders on /r/wallstreetbets. People own the same stocks $NBIS, $TE, $ASTS, $HOOD, $RKLB, $IREN, $KRKNF, $ONDS, $SOFI, $AMD, $TSLA and others. However: It’s a positive thing. I’ve seen this on repeat again and again throughout the years. Short term when people buy 1-3 months options, they lose money on these “bubbly” and crowded trades. Long term 1 year later, retail gets these companies directionally right. And this is the most important part. For example, $TSM ($140-$150) was the most popular ticker a year or two ago on Reddit when $NVDA was initially taking off back. Retail got this directionally right, because $TSM was the center of all AI buildout. Short term, everyone lost money because they bought calls for 2M out and the stock stalled and even dropped to $127. One year later it’s up over 100%+ and all those calls would have 10x’ed. Same with $MU. Reddit knew memory was a huge part of the AI boom and piled in on the same trade. Yet $MU stalled at $100 for an entire year and everyone lost money. Fast forward, memory from Micron to Sk Hynix is the hottest thing now and shot up 200%+ from $65 to $245 . Retail got this right directionally right but capitulated. I’m convinced on stocks like $NBIS that we’re in the period of time where retail bought too many short dated calls and are capitulating with shares like the drops on $TSM or $MU. However fast forward a year, this might be that 3x-4x return like $TSM or $MU or $HOOD (at $18) where retail was directionally right all along. I’m confident Finx Retail stock “bubbles” might not be right in shorter timeframes - where OI, macro volatility, and MMs dominate - but are right directionally long term.
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AVGO财报被误读，AI逻辑未变，大跌提供买入良机。
我对 $AVGO 财报的解读是，市场主要误解了其积压订单(backlog)数据。关于 $NVDA GPU 生态系统和 Mag7 ASIC 生态系统的 AI 交易整体逻辑依然成立，但市场却将其视为泡沫破裂+严重不及预期。我们正经历从“AI是下一个大趋势”到“AI是泡沫”，再到“AI是下一个大趋势”，最后又回到“AI是泡沫”的循环。波动性和13%以上的跌幅使得多只股票成为良好的买入机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
So my takeaway from $AVGO earnings is that it's mainly misunderstood backlog numbers. Overall thesis on AI trade from $NVDA GPU ecosystem and Mag7 ASIC ecosystem is in-tact but the market is treating it like a bubble popping + terrible miss. We're just going from AI is the next big thing -> Ai is a bubble -> AI is the next big thing -> AI is a bubble. Volatility and -13%+ drops makes several names a good buy.
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博通财报后AI板块抛售是误解造成的买入机会，新云板块中OpenAI依赖股除外
博通[$AVGO]业绩及其对AI板块的影响，如$LIITE和$NBIS： 博通的业绩"双重超预期"，营收$180.2亿(+28% Y/Y)，EPS $1.95，超出共识预期。 但AVGO下跌-11.64%，并拖累了整个AI板块。 这是买入机会吗？ 是的。 博通被视为超大规模云厂商ASIC代理增长的代表，因为亚马逊$AMZN Trainium、微软$MSFT Maia、尤其是谷歌$GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood都通过它进行规模化部署。 而像$ALAB(-13.2%)、$CRDO(-5.11%)、$LITE(-12.23%)、$TSM(-3.71%)、$COHR(-9.25%)等公司都是TPU/ASIC建设以及博通作为公司的直接受益者。 博通下跌有三个原因，市场下跌有一个原因： 就博通而言，有一些小问题，如税率变化影响EPS模型，或因更多定制AI芯片而非更高利润率软件导致的"利润率压缩"，但这只是会计处理框架问题。（类似于$META在一次性税收后最初的下跌） 对博通和整体市场而言，是积压订单预期问题。以上所有引用的内容与ASIC市场预期增长相比都是小问题。 博通披露未来18个月$730亿的AI积压订单。而有关Anthropic和META购买价值数十亿$GOOGL TPU的传言，人们隐含预期是$800亿+。 然而，这次抛售是由算法和短期AI泡沫情绪驱动的价格错位，而非基本面破裂。 这条积压订单引用是确认订单的最低合同底线。谷歌$GOOGL、亚马逊$AMZN等公司可能会继续增加ASIC订单，而市场未能辨别这一细微差别。 分析师预期营收转化会更加前置，Q4之后积压订单应该会减少，这给出了2026年更高的可能范围$550-600亿+，而非$730亿预期中的$500亿。 TLDR：关于超大规模云厂商ASIC加速以与$NVDA依赖竞争这一论点没有改变。$AVGO和其他如$COHR、Sk Hynix、$MU、$VRT和$LITE都将受益。 这不是关于营收积压订单的最佳消息，但由于交付周期/订单周期和最低底线而被误解。 如果非要说什么，较低的超级云厂商ASIC需求对$NVDA及其生态系统是有益的，但我们也看到$CRWV、$SMCI、$NBIS和$NVDA GPU/DC计算生态系统今天都从盲目抛售中下跌超过5%，尽管存在负相关性。 这又是典型的"AI泡沫"周期因误解而再次来袭。AI股票普遍下跌10-12%的恐慌是一个绝佳的买入机会。 （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 甲骨文[$ORCL]业绩及其对新云板块如$NBIS和$IREN的影响： 甲骨文报告EPS超预期且积压订单创纪录，但盘后下跌12%。 甲骨文较9月11日高点下跌39.8%，并拖累整个板块。 原因如下： 这次抛售不仅仅是对边际营收miss的反应，而是算法做空和投资者对AI资本支出周期可持续性以及该板块主要租户信用资质的不看好： OpenAI。 甲骨文宣布2026年资本支出增加$150亿至近$500亿，这与报道的与OpenAI $3000亿合作伙伴关系密不可分。 最初，OpenAI是前沿LLM，对甲骨文、Coreweave等公司有前景良好的资本支出承诺，促成了该板块的初始重新定价。 然而，随着超过$1万亿的义务以及Anthropic、Gemini、XAI等竞争对手的增加，市场严重质疑甲骨文、Coreweave等公司是否为无法从运营现金流履行其义务的租户在建设。 我们看到市场有效地发出信号：甲骨文正在为OpenAI创造一种不可持续的债务驱动型"供应商融资"，而OpenAI无法履行其承诺。 因此下跌是理性的：这次抛售是由信用风险和资本密集度的理性重新定价所驱动。 OpenAI融资担忧是合理的：OpenAI缺乏资金履行合同的假设得到其营收($130亿)与义务($600亿/年)之间明显不匹配的支撑。 信用担忧是真实的：甲骨文CDS利差扩大显示"信用事件"降级或违约的概率上升。 此外，我们看到这在新云板块引发传染效应，$NBIS从$140跌至$90s，$IREN从$80跌至$40s，$CIFR从$24s跌至$17s。 但这对$WULF、$NBIS、$IREN等新云公司来说是买入机会吗？ 是的。 这对$ORCL来说是好的买入机会吗？ 不是。 前瞻展望： $ORCL（很大一部分）、$CRWV（25%积压订单）是两个主要依赖OpenAI的公司，这一叙事可能因OpenAI的融资活动而瞬间翻转（+30%+变化）。 如果OpenAI在2026年以高估值超额认购IPO，且其新GPT模型击败Gemini/Claude，我们可以看到这种改变。 然而，许多其他公司与OpenAI无关。新云板块的原始论点是Mag7资本支出从其现金牛业务（Azure、AWS、GCP）向下流向：$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF等。 但随着最大玩家($ORCL、$CRWV)下跌，这些公司算法性地拖累了整个板块。 如果你看各家公司，$CIFR和$WULF由$GOOGL兜底，$IREN/$NBIS由$MSFT资助。 这些是与超大规模云厂商/Mag7的锁定合同积压订单，而非OpenAI。 这种因误解风险而导致的不理性抛售为新云板块提供了绝佳的买入机会，但不是与OpenAI相关的公司如$ORCL和$CRWV。
原推 ↗英文原文
Broadcom [ $AVGO ] earnings results and its effect on the AI sector like $LITE and $NBIS: Broadcom's ER was "double beat" with $18.02B revenue (+28% Y/Y) and $1.95 EPS, beating consensus. But AVGO dropped -11.64% and brought down the AI sector. Is this a buying opportunity? Yes. Broadcom is seen as a hyperscaler ASIC proxy growth as companies like $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, and most importantly $GOOGL TPU V7 Ironwood are scaled through it. And by proxy companies like $ALAB (-13.2%), $CRDO (-5.11%), $LITE (-12.23%), $TSM (-3.71%), $COHR (-9.25%), and are direct beneficiaries of the TPU/Asic buildout and Broadcom as a company. There's three reasons why Broadcom fell and one why the market fell: For Broadcom, there's minor things such as tax rate changing EPS models or "margin compression" from accounting from just more custom AI chips than higher-margin software, but this is just accounting framing. (Similar to how $META dropped initially on one-time tax post-ER) For both Broadcom general market, it was backlog expectations. Everything cited above is all minor compared to expected growth of ASIC markets. Broadcom cited $73B in AI backlog for the next 18 months. And rumors of Antrophic and META buying billions of $GOOGL TPUs, people were implicitly expecting $80B+. However, the selloff represents a dislocation in price driven by algorithms and short-term AI Bubble sentiment rather than a fundamental breakage. This backlog quote was the MINIMUM CONTRACTUAL FLOOR of confirmed orders. Companies like $GOOGL, $AMZN, will likely continue ramping up ASIC orders and the market failed to discern this nuance. Analysts are expecting revenue conversion to be more front loaded, and that there should be less backlog beyond Q4 given the cycles, which gives a higher likely range of $55-60B+ for 2026 rather than $50B expected of the $73B. TLDR: The thesis regarding hyperscaler ASIC ramp to compete vs $NVDA dependency has not changed. $AVGO and other players like $COHR, Sk Hynix, $MU, $VRT, and $LITE all stand to benefit. It's not the best news regarding the revenue backlog, but it's misunderstood due to lead-time/order cycles and minimum floors. If anything, lower hyperscaler ASIC demand is beneficial to $NVDA and their ecosystem, but we've also seen $CRWV, $SMCI, $NBIS and $NVDA GPU/DC compute ecosystem drop over 5%+ today from an indiscriminate sell-off despite inverse correlation. This is just the typical "AI Bubble" cycle hitting again from misunderstanding. The widespread panic of AI stocks dropping 10-12% is a great buying opportunity.
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看好$SNAP因降本增效及AI收入，预计2026-27年有100%+涨幅。
$SNAP 在 7.64 美元时被极度低估。 -> Snapchat 通过转向 GCP 削减运营支出，并将其转化为收入。 -> Perplexity 交易在现有收入基础上增加了 4 亿美元股权/现金。 预计这些变化带来的净自由现金流(Net FCF)在 2026 年底至 2027 年初将达到 +6.3 亿美元（+1.9 亿运营云支出节省，+5.4 亿内存收入，-1 亿存储成本）。 CEO 出售 1000 万美元股票并不重要，尤其是当有 5 亿美元回购时。 $SNAP 不需要成为 $META，它永远不会是。 在 130 亿美元市值下，它只需要削减成本并改善来自其 15-20 亿美元季度收入（~55% 毛利率）的自由现金流。 那么即使用户增长放缓或轻微下降，它也将获得巨大的重估。 目前税务收割(tax harvesting)可能在未来两周结束。但如果你能等待整整一年，我有信心一旦计入 GCP 运营支出削减和 AI 收入流，Snap 将大幅跑赢任何指数。 进入 2026-2027 年，这里有 100%+ 的上行空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64. -> Snapchat cutting opex costs with GCP and converting that to revenue. -> Perplexity deal adding $400m in equity/cash on top of existing revenue. Net FCF Is estimate from these changes is +$630M (+$190M opex cloud, memory revenue +540M, storage cogs -$100m) late 2026, early 2027. The CEO selling $10M in shares is not material, especially when there's $500M in buybacks. $SNAP doesn't need to be $META, it never will. At a $13B marketcap, it just needs to cut costs and improve FCF from its $1.5B-$2B quarterly revenue (~55% gross profit margins). Then it will be re-rated immensely, even if user counts slows or slightly drops. Right now tax harvesting is likely ending next two weeks. But if you can wait a whole year, I'm confident Snap will strongly outperform any index once we factor in GCP opex cuts and AI revenue streams. 100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.
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看好$AAOI，因其在AI光互联中的核心地位及美国本土制造优势，认为其被严重低估。
我买入 $ALAB、$NBIS、$TSM 和 $LITE，是因为“七巨头”(Mag7) 的收入正流向这些公司。 $LITE 的独特之处在于其在 GOOGL TPU v7、AMZN Trainium v3/4 和 NVDA Blackwell 中的角色。 但我发现了一个新标的。 一家市值低于 30 亿美元的小盘股，符合我的投资逻辑： 名称 - $AAOI 一家小型光子学玩家，也是我持仓的两家光子学公司之一： 1. Lumentum ($LITE) 在每一款芯片的部署/爬坡中都占据独特地位，因为其光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching) 技术被用于 Blackwell、Trainium 和 Ironwood，作为一种“横向扩展”(scale-across) 型技术。 无论超大规模云厂商选择 ASIC 还是 GPU，$LITE 都能胜出，因为它处于核心位置。 2. Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) 更多涉及“纵向扩展”(scale-out) 连接，针对 Trainium、Maia 等定制 ASIC 集群，通过 400G 和 800G 光缆及光收发器实现。 鉴于 $AAOI 在 AWS（Trainium 的大客户）和 MSFT Maia ASIC 中的角色，它也能无论何种情况都胜出。 行业正经历由向 800G 速度迁移驱动的“超级周期”，而 AAOI 正处于中心位置。 此外，AAOI 具有独特的地缘政治角度： 美国优先。 与许多无晶圆厂(fabless)并将生产外包到台湾的公司不同，Applied Optoelectronics 在德克萨斯州自行制造激光器。 美国超大规模云厂商（特别是 Amazon 和 Microsoft）正在积极减少对关键基础设施中国供应链的依赖，这有助于 AAOI 实现本土激光器制造。 我们还看到一家“主要超大规模云厂商”对其 800G 数据中心光收发器下达了另一笔巨额订单。 但 AAOI 的交易表现像一家困境公司；然而，其亚马逊权证协议隐含的收入为 2025 年 Q4 和 2026 财年的 800G 爬坡创造了非对称的风险/回报特征。鉴于其在 AI 建设中的角色及现有的超大规模云厂商合同，AAOI 似乎结构性被低估。 市场终于开始重估 $LITE，但感觉 $AAOI 才刚刚开始，鉴于其小市值以及作为超大规模云厂商 ASIC 集群关键玩家和“美国制造”的独特角度。 市场目前正在对光子学玩家进行大幅重估并赋予高溢价，但 AAOI 今年仅上涨 2.20%，似乎蓄势待发。
原推 ↗英文原文
I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them. Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell. But there's a new one I found out about. A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis: Name - $AAOI A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in: 1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology. $LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all. 2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers. $AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs. The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it. On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle, America first. Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas. US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home. And we've seen another huge volume order from a "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers. But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts. The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America. The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.
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美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。
美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级： 强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释： 今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。 然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。 强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。 话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。 三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。 买入评级： 文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入 回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.
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推荐买入$ALAB，因其高利润率及超跌后的反弹潜力。
@IncrediBadly $ALAB 是一笔极佳的买入。其利润率高于 $NVDA，且同比增长三位数。该股已从 $250 的高点回落，是绝佳的反弹买入机会。在此价位可能不会做期权交易，但持有股票等待也不无坏处。
原推 ↗英文原文
@IncrediBadly $ALAB is an amazing buy. Higher margins than $NVDA and growing triple digits Y/Y. It's already down from it's $250 high, great recovery buy. Around here probably wouldn't do options but shares can't hurt for waiting.
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SMCI因订单延迟致短期利空，但长期增长确定且估值极低，强烈建议买入。
@LandoInvests 很乐意就 $SMCI 进行辩论，我在文中阐述了其因 2026 年第二季度前瞻性营收积压（Forward Revenue Backlog）而注定复苏的逻辑。 https://t.co/FJj3yXlhGT （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: 将 $SMCI 评级上调至极度强烈买入（EXTREMELY STRONG BUY），目标价约 $33（市值约 190 亿美元）。 • 2026 财年营收预期上调至 360 亿美元以上（较 220 亿美元同比增长 60%+）。 • AI 数据中心（AI Data Center）建设（如 $NBIS、$IREN、$DGXX）使 GPU 服务器需求保持最大化。 这并非 $CRDO 那种营收同比增长 272% 的故事，而是被错估的价值。 原因如下： SMCI 财报后下跌源于两点：对利润率压缩（Margin Compression）的担忧和营收不及预期。 1. 2026 年第一季度的“不及预期”实为订单延迟： • 营收为 50 亿美元，低于此前 60-70 亿美元的指引。 • 然而，这仅仅是 15 亿美元推迟至第二季度，客户在等待英伟达 Blackwell Ultra 配置。且公司甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 2. 利润率压缩担忧： • 2025 财年净利率：约 5.9%（220 亿美元营收对应 13 亿美元净利润）。 • 当前的利润率压缩是暂时的。随着数字租赁中心（Digital Lending Center, DLC）制造沿学习曲线（Learning Curve）下行，单位成本下降，利润率上升。管理层目标下半年毛利率约 11%，净利率回升至约 5.5%。 若毛利率均值回归至约 11%，净利率在 360-380 亿美元营收基础上回归至 5-6%，你将看到 20 亿美元以上的盈利。 营收：380 亿美元 净利率：5.5%（复苏情景） 隐含净利润：20.9 亿美元 股本：6.8 亿股（稀释后） 股价：约 33.85 美元 市盈率计算：33.85 / 3.07 = 11.0 倍 远期市盈率：约 10-13 倍，对于一家拥有 60%+ 远期增长的公司来说，极其便宜。 $SMCI 不依赖 GPU 使用寿命的会计游戏，无论如何它都出售机架。 此外，$NVDA、$NBIS、$CRDO 及其他 AI 数据中心股票在财报后确认 AI 热潮并未放缓。 $SMCI 是 AI/数据中心热潮的核心，同比增长 60%+，但市场却将其视为类似 $MSTR 的困境资产。 因此我建立多头头寸，因为 $SMCI 看起来是硬件板块中风险调整后最具吸引力的 6 个月（中期）交易，拥有 50-100% 的上行空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LandoInvests Happy to debate $SMCI, I put my thesis here on why it's bound for a recovery due to forward revenue backlog in Q2 2026. https://t.co/FJj3yXlhGT
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更新持仓表现，计划逢高加仓AMKR/SMCI，等待LITE回调。
持仓更新： 持有高确信度的多头头寸如 $NBIS 并卖出期权，周末相对轻松。 上周小幅加仓更新： $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite 受益于 $NVDA Blackwell 和 $GOOGL v7 TPU 的产能爬坡。 $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 受益于美国关于与 $TSM 建厂的政策。 $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$210.3亿 （明年营收同比增长60%，季度积压订单延迟导致的40%跌幅是不合理的）。 $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 除了 $CRWV 再融资20亿美元并拖累其他 Neoclouds，以及华纳兄弟1080亿美元 Paramount 收购案风波外，没看到太多新闻。 可能会在 $AMKR 和 $SMCI 上逢高加仓，等待 $LITE 更深幅度的回调。
原推 ↗英文原文
Stock position updates: Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend. Minor position adds updates from last week: $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 Benefits from US-policy regarding Fab with $TSM. $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$21.03B (60% Y/Y revenue growth going into next year, the 40% drop for quarter backlog delay was unwarranted). $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 Haven't seen too much news aside from $CRWV raising another $2B and tanking other Neoclouds. Or the $108B Paramount bid drama for Warner. Probably going to cost average up on $AMKR, $SMCI, waiting on a deeper drops for $LITE.
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SMCI因订单延迟被错杀，估值极低，AI需求强劲，建议中期做多。
@mhayavkay 关于 $SMCI 将 $SMCI 评级上调至“极强买入”，目标价约 $33（市值约 190 亿美元）。 • 2026 财年营收预期上调至 360 亿美元以上（较 220 亿美元同比增长 60%+）。 • AI 数据中心（如 $NBIS、$IREN、$DGXX）的建设使 GPU 服务器需求保持最大化。 这并非 $CRDO 那种营收同比激增 272% 的故事，而是被错估的价值股。 原因如下： SMCI 财报后股价下跌源于两点：对利润率压缩的担忧和营收不及预期。 1. 2026 年 Q1 的“不及预期”实为订单延迟： • 营收为 50 亿美元，低于此前 60-70 亿美元的指引。 • 但这只是 15 亿美元推迟至 Q2，因客户在等待 Nvidia 的 Blackwell Ultra 配置。且公司甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 2. 利润率压缩担忧： • 2025 财年净利率：约 5.9%（220 亿美元营收对应 13 亿美元净利润）。 • 当前的利润率压缩是暂时的。随着 DLC 制造（数字逻辑芯片制造）沿学习曲线下行，单位成本下降，利润率将回升。管理层目标下半年毛利率约 11%，净利率回升至约 5.5%。 若毛利率均值回归至约 11%，净利率回归至约 5-6%，基于 360-380 亿美元营收，每股收益将超 20 亿美元。 营收：380 亿美元 净利率：5.5%（复苏情景） 隐含净利润：20.9 亿美元 稀释股数：6.8 亿股 股价：约 33.85 美元 市盈率计算：33.85 / 3.07 = 11.0 倍 远期市盈率：约 10-13 倍，对于一家远期增长超 60% 的股票而言，极其便宜。 $SMCI 不依赖 GPU 使用寿命的会计游戏，无论如何它都出售机架。 此外，$NVDA、$NBIS、$CRDO 及其他 AI 数据中心股票在财报后确认 AI 热潮并未放缓。 $SMCI 是 AI/数据中心热潮的核心，同比增长 60%+，但市场却将其视为类似 $MSTR 的困境资产。 因此我建立多头头寸，因为 $SMCI 看起来是硬件板块中风险调整后最具吸引力的 6 个月（中期）交易，潜在上涨空间 50-100%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mhayavkay For $SMCI https://t.co/i9EduOkMGY
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博主认为七大科技股当前估值具备较高概率优势。
@Scepticus16 就我而言，从当前估值来看，$meta、$amzn、$googl、$nvda、$appl、$msft、$tsla 的概率较大。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Scepticus16 Prob $meta, $amzn, $googl, $nvda, $appl, $msft, $tsla for me in terms of current valuations
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澄清自动驾驶技术等级与部署策略差异，避免重蹈Cruise覆辙。
@prudhviregula 当然，这是细微的语义差别。从技术层面看，它已达到第4级自动驾驶(L4)，例如 $NVDA、现代汽车以及分析师的观点。 但从其在德克萨斯州的启动来看，出于风险管理，它最初选择了监督式部署，以防止重蹈 Cruise 在加州的覆辙。 我与 Anthropic 进行了深入研究以再次确认。https://t.co/V87kdo0vX3
原推 ↗英文原文
@prudhviregula Sure, it's nuanced semantics. It's at level 4 tech wise, eg. $NVDA, Hyundai, and analysts. But from its Texas launch it chose supervised deployment for risk management at the start to prevent what happened with Cruise in CA. Did a deep research with Anthropic to double check. https://t.co/V87kdo0vX3
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看好$LITE因TPU放量潜力，虽追高但仍决定定投建仓。
有点遗憾我加入 $LITE 派对晚了，它现在正处于历史高点(ATH)。但如果看看 $NVDA 从2022年到现在发生了什么，如果张量处理单元(TPU)最终成为推理领域的主导力量，同样的情况也可能发生。而且，$LITE 与 TPU 的放量直接相关。遗憾的是，我此前没有意识到它对生态系统有多么关键。这是我正在通过成本平均法(Cost Averaging)建仓的标的，虽然有点晚，但很高兴将其加入我的投资组合。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah little sad I'm late to the $LITE party and it's ATHs right now. But if we look what happened to $NVDA 2022 to now, same could happen if TPU ends up becoming a dominant player in inference. and.. $LITE is directly correlated to TPU ramp up. Sadly didn't realize how vital it was to the ecosystem earlier. This is something I'm cost averaging shares with but it's a happy add to my portfolio.
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分析Google TPU v7供应链，建仓Lumentum以博弈TPU生态扩张。
对 $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood 供应商的分析。 以下是受 Google TPU 建设影响最大的公司列表。 + 我正在建仓的 TPU 相关股票。 [关键] 设计/IP： - 博通 [ $AVGO ]：共同设计并实现 Google 的 TPU ASIC（专用集成电路） [关键/高] 半导体晶圆代工： - #1 台湾半导体 [ $TSM ]：TPUv7 在 TSMC 3nm 工艺制造 - #2 三星电子：次要存储及晶圆代工合作伙伴 [关键/高] 存储： - #1 SK 海力士：为 TPUv7 Ironwood 提供 HBM3E - #2 三星电子：~TPUv7 特定报告强调 SK 海力士 + 三星。 [高] 光网络： - Lumentum [ $LITE ]：Google 广泛使用光电路交换 (OCS) - Coherent [ $COHR ]：OCS 参与者但较弱 [高] 电源管理 IC： - Monolithic [ $MPWR ]：这是一个投机性观点，即 Vicor 将被 $MPWR 取代，源自财报中提及 TPU [中] 热管理： - Vertiv [ $VRT ]：Vertiv 供应作为液冷系统核心的 CDU（冷却分配单元），将冷却液泵送至 TPU 芯片的冷板 - Modine [ $MOD ]：更投机性地认为他们提供大型冷水机组和空气处理单元 (AHU) [中] 互连： - TTM Technologies [ $TTMI ]，$ANET，Unimicron，Ibiden ______ Google TPU v7 “Ironwood” 的建设代表了一个旨在打破 $NVDA GPU 垄断的平行硅生态系统的构建。 实质性影响最集中在博通（作为硅架构师和商业载体）、存储综合体（SK 海力士/三星）以及光网络/电源领域（Lumentum/Vertiv），这是基于公开证据创建的，但很大程度上取决于采用率、供应商份额和竞争反应的实际表现。 从这项供应链研究中，我正在 $LITE 建立新头寸，以防 TPU 成为推理领域的主导 ASIC。 Lumentum 是 Google 致力于 OCS 的主要受益者，并构成了 TPU 吊舱中使用的 “Apollo” OCS 交换机的核心。 TPU v7 集群的爬坡直接转化为 Lumentum 光开关模块的出货量。由于 OCS 是 Google 超大规模方法独有的定制架构，Lumentum 在此处面临的 commoditization（商品化）压力小于标准收发器市场。 然而，如果 Anthropic、Meta、Apple 和其他公司购买 $GOOGL ASIC 导致 TPU v7 规模扩大，该供应链中的所有公司都将受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
Analysis of the $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood Suppliers. Here's the list of what comapnies are the most materially impacted by the Google's TPU buildout. + the TPU stock I'm taking a position on. [Critical] Design/IP: - Broadcom [ $AVGO ]: co-designs and implements Google’s TPU ASICs [Critical/High] Semiconductor Fab: - #1 Taiwan Semi [ $TSM ]: TPUv7 is fabbed at TSMC 3nm - #2 Samsung Electronics: Secondary memory & foundry partner [Critical/High] Memory: - #1 SK Hynix: HBM3E for TPUv7 Ironwood - #2 Samsung Electronics: ~TPUv7-specific reporting emphasizes SK hynix + Samsung. [High] Optical Networking: - Lumentum [ $LITE ]: Google uses extensively uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) - Coherent [ $COHR ]: OCS player but weaker [High] Power Management ICs: - Monolithic [ $MPWR ]: This is speculative that Vicor will be replaced by $MPWR, from earnings mentioning TPU [Medium] Thermal Management: - Vertiv [ $VRT ]: Vertiv supplies the CDUs that act as the heart of the liquid cooling system, pumping coolant to the cold plates on the TPU chips - Modine [ $MOD ]: More speculative that they provide provides the massive chillers and air handling units (AHUs) [Medium] Interconnects: - TTM Technologies [ $TTMI ], $ANET, Unimicron, Ibiden ______ The buildout of the Google TPU v7 "Ironwood" represents the construction of a parallel silicon ecosystem designed to break the monopoly of $NVDA GPU. The material impact is most concentrated in Broadcom (as the silicon architect and commercial vehicle), the Memory Complex (SK Hynix/Samsung), and the Optical/Power sectors (Lumentum/Vertiv) and was created from public evidence but is largely dependent on adoption, vendor shares, and competitive responses actually play out. From this supply chain research, I'm initiating a new position in $LITE, in the event the TPU becomes the dominant ASIC for inference. Lumentum is primary beneficiary of Google’s commitment to OCS and form the core of the "Apollo" OCS switches used in TPU pods. The ramping of TPU v7 clusters translates directly to unit volume for Lumentum’s optical switch modules. And because OCS is a bespoke architecture unique to Google’s hyperscale approach, Lumentum faces less commoditization pressure here than in the standard transceiver market. However all companies in this supply chain are set to benefit if the TPU v7 scales up from Anthropic, Meta, Apple, and others buying the $GOOGL ASIC.
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分析NBIS、IREN和CRWV商业模式优劣及新云厂商时间窗口。
好问题。麦肯锡曾就此话题发文（我觉得写得极差，因为他们以 $CRWV 为主要锚点）。 但其中部分观点成立，并对 $IREN 等公司发出警示。他们的观点： - 当前的裸金属租赁商业模式薄弱且脆弱 - 避免过度依赖少数大客户 - 开辟可防御的利基市场（如主权计算、专用工作负载） - 通过收购整合或成为超大规模云服务商 这些确实正确，但未能捕捉到一些细微差别。 关于 $NBIS： - 极度多元化（这构成了利用率的强大护城河，对利润率计算至关重要） - 全栈式（可防御的利基市场） - 通过收购整合（旨在成为超大规模云服务商，拥有4家同步增长的子公司） 这就是我说它具有最高非对称上行潜力的原因。 关于 $IREN： - 当前的裸金属租赁业务目前是护城河。文章指出长期来看它很脆弱，这是正确的。因此 $IREN 正通过与 $MSFT 合作开展 GPU 基础设施即服务(IaaS) 向上攀登全栈阶梯，并可能尝试构建上层软件层（尽管这很难） - 我们将拭目以待，这需要极高的执行力。 关于 $CRWV - 老实说，我不知道他们如何摆脱债务陷阱 - 他们试图用 $NVDA 作为后盾，但这充其量也很脆弱（例如 OpenAI 拥有 1 万亿美元以上的资本支出，试图争取政府 + 科技七巨头提供资金担保） 新云厂商是一场与时间的赛跑，我同意文章的观点（这就是我说高确信度持有2年，而非5年以上的原因）。 他们拥有从科技七巨头(Mag7)弱势中获取收入的绝佳窗口期 -> 将收入转化 -> 建立长期差异化和护城河。 我不知道最终结果如何，但我们将拭目以待。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hi great question. So there was an article by Mckinsey on this topic (which I think is terribly written since they use $CRWV as the main anchor). But some points holds true, and gives warnings to $IREN and others. Their claims: - current bare-metal rental business model is weak and fragile - avoids overreliance on a few giant customers - carve defensible niches (sovereign compute, specialized workloads) - consolidate through acquisitions or be a hyperscaler Are definitely correct, but fail to capture some nuances. So for $NBIS: - Extremely diversified (so this is more as a powerful moat for utilization, which is huge for margin calculations) - Full-stack (defensible niche) - consolidate through acquisitions (it's aiming to become a hyperscaler, has 4 subsidiary companies growing alongside it) That's kind of why I've said it has the highest asymmetrical upside of the bunch. For $IREN: - current bare-metal rental business is a moat as of today. The article is correct in stating long term it's fragile. That's why $IREN is moving up the full-stack ladder doing GPU iaas with $MSFT, and will likely try and build software layers on top (though it's hard) - We will see what comes out of this, it's high execution. For $CRWV - idk how they're going to get out of the debt trap tbh - they're using $NVDA to backstop it, but it's shaky at best (eg. openai with $1t+ in capex trying to get gov + mag7 to backstop funding) Neoclouds are a race against time, I agree with the article (which is why I said 2 year high conviction hold, not 5 years + ). They have this brilliant window of opportunity of weakness from mag7 -> funnel revenue down -> build long term differentiation and moats. I don't know what will happen, but we'll see
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AI云股被算法归篮联动，CRWV财务堪忧，NBIS/IREN长期价值或超CRWV。
是的，完全同意。我认为算法/市场目前将 $NBIS、$IREN 归入 $CRWV、$NVDA 的篮子中。因此，任何关于 Coreweave 的负面报道都会对其他公司产生负面影响。我们终于看到 $WULF、$CIFR 等被归入数据中心(colocation)篮子（相对不受 GPU 贬值论点影响），并表现优异。但坦率地说，$CRWV 是一个财务噩梦，只要它被视为新云(neocloud)行业领导者，就会影响其他公司。至于 $NVDA，$GOOGL 的 TPU 论据是我目前看到的针对 $NVDA GPU 云业务最强的看空理由，但这些公司已经从 $META、$MSFT 锁定了 5 年的超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)合约。我认为市场最终会正确定价，我相信 $NBIS 和 $IREN 有一天会比 $CRWV 更有价值，但其中只有一家拥有自动驾驶 Robotaxi lol。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yep absolutely. I think algos/market put $NBIS, $IREN in the $CRWV, $NVDA basket right now. So any negative hit piece about Coreweave does negatively affects the others. We've finally seen $WULF, $CIFR and others get put into the colo basket (which are relatively unaffected to GPU depreciation arguments), and outperform. But $CRWV is a financial nightmare to put it bluntly, so it does affect the others as long as it's treated as the neocloud sector leader. As for $NVDA, TPU arguments from $GOOGL is the strongest bear case I've seen to date though on $NVDA GPU clouds, but these companies already have have 5 year hyperscaler deals locked in from $META, $MSFT. imo markets will price things in correctly in due time, I do think both $NBIS and $IREN will be worth more than $CRWV one day. but only one of those has self-driving robotaxis lol
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回应反馈，重申对NBIS作为十年一遇机会的高置信度持仓逻辑。
感谢反馈，我会铭记于心，并照常发布其他主题的内容！ 我昨天发布了关于 $NVDA 等标的的深度研究(DD)，但正如你提到的，近期内容主要集中在 NeoCloud 板块。我之所以聚焦于此，是因为近期新闻密集，且巨大的抛售引发了大量关注！ 具体到 $NBIS，这是我持仓两年中信心最高的一笔投资。我认为这是继 $NVDA 之后十年来难得的机会，你很少看到一家核心公司净利润同比增长 700%，同时旗下 4 家投资组合公司净利润均实现 100% 的同比增长。 其中一家恰好是一家非常酷的自动驾驶 Robotaxi 公司（我是 Waymo 和 $TSLA Robotaxi 的粉丝）。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for the feedback, I'll take it to heart and do posts on other stuff as usual! I posted DD about stuff like $NVDA yesterday but recently as you mentioned it's been mainly about the neocloud sector. I've been focused on it because of how much news there was recently + the huge sell off attracted a lot of attention! For $NBIS in specific, it was my highest conviction 2 year hold. I just see it as the opportunity of a decade since $NVDA, you don't really see any core company growing its bottom line 700% Y/Y with 4 separate portfolio companies growing 100% Y/Y. One of which happens to be a super cool self-driving robotaxi company (I'm a fan of Waymo, $TSLA robotaxis).
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TPU虽具竞争力，但NVDA积压订单提供中期保障，难构成看跌。
是的，话题是关于TPU v7 Ironwood作为首个对$NVDA构成竞争替代的产品，在特定推理工作负载上表现更优。目前$NVDA的积压订单是中期的安全垫。关键问题在于TPU能否持续优于Nvidia旗舰GPU（我的答案是否定的，随着下一代发布）。然而，如果以下情况发生，则构成看跌逻辑：- TPU持续优于$NVDA旗舰GPU；- 人们更倾向于选择TPU而非NVDA芯片；- AI算力需求减弱，且$NVDA的GPU未完全售罄。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah, the topic was about how the TPU v7 Ironwood is the first competitive alternative to $NVDA and performs better for specific inference workloads. The current $NVDA backlog is a security guarantee for medium term. It's just a question of whether TPUs continue to outperform Nvidia's flagship GPUs (my answer is probably not, with the next gen release). It is a bear case, however, if - TPUs continues to outperform $NVDA flagship GPUs - people want TPUs over NVDA chips. - AI compute demand lessens, and $NVDA is not fully sold out of GPUs.
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对比GOOGL与NVDA，认为前者风险更低，后者潜在回报更高。
$GOOGL 具有非对称上行潜力。张量处理单元(TPU) 只是搜索、Waymo、YouTube 及其他业务之外的一个“支线任务”。 $NVDA 若 AI 随机器人/智能体指数级爆发，且其新模型在训练/推理性能上大幅超越其他供应商，则上行空间更大。 由于无法预知结果，同时持有两者无妨，但 Google 显然是两者中风险较低的选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
$GOOGL for asymmetrical upside. TPUs is just a side quest among search, Waymo, YouTube, and less other things. $NVDA for much higher upside in case AI continues taking off exponentially with robotics/agents and they end up leapfrogging all other providers in both trading/inference performance in their newer models. Doesn’t hurt to own both since it’s impossible to know, but Google is clearly the less risky of the two
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AI算力需求指数级增长抵消GPU迭代贬值，NVDA客户优质，非泡沫崩盘。
答案很微妙。 主要看两个因素： 1. GPU 变得更节能。 2. 大语言模型(LLM) 在容量/能效上更高效。 在 LLM 方面，我们看到像 DeepSeek 这类模型在处理不需要高精度的任务（如回答烹饪食谱或知识库查询）时极其高效。 然而……随着计算力的增加，准确率（尤其是复杂研究问题）也在提升。Elon 和 Magnificent Seven 意识到了这一点，所以他们正在扫货市场上的所有 GPU 以创造超级智能。这也是为什么 Anthropic 和 Google 正在建设耗资 400 多亿美元的数据中心，用于运行需要更多算力进行批判性思维（如 Genesis 任务）的更高级 Opus 和 Gemini 模型。 在 GPU 方面，每一代新 GPU（例如 H100 -> B200）在能效和每美元性能上都有显著提升。例如，Blackwell B200 是 Hopper H100 的 30 倍。 如果基于这个假设，那么到 2027/2028 年，市场上将出现大量过时的低效 H100 和 B200，导致二手 GPU 市场崩盘。 但是：这是假设我们没有看到对新 AI 能力的指数级需求（我们很可能会看到，且正在发生）。正因为这种指数级需求，今天旧模型（如 7 年前的 TPU 和 2020 年的 GPU）仍被用于低优先级的推理任务。 $NVDA 的订单已积压数年，人们正在购买 $AMD 的 GPU 和 $GOOGL 的 TPU 来构建任何新增产能。 至于思科类比，思科的客户是互联网泡沫时期无盈利能力的公司。$NVDA 的客户是 $META、$AMZN、$GOOGL、$MSFT，这些是世界上最盈利的公司。所以最坏的情况我们可能看到回调，而不是互联网泡沫式的崩盘。
原推 ↗英文原文
Answer is nuanced. So two factors: 1. GPUs get more power efficient. 2. LLMs get more capacity/power efficient. For the LLMs case, we're seeing that on deepseek type models be extremely efficient on stuff that don't require much accuracy. Basic stuff like responding to questions about cooking recipes, or knowledge-base stuff. However... accuracy increases, especially with complex research questions, scaled with compute. And people like Elon + mag7 realize this, which is why they're just buying up all the GPUs on the market to create superintelligence. And why antrhopic/google is building $40B+ datacenters for more advanced opus and gemini models that require more compute for critical thinking (eg. Genesis Mission) For the GPUs case, every new generation of GPU (e.g., H100 -> B200) offers dramatic improvements in power efficiency and performance per dollar. eg. Blackwell B200 is 30x than the Hopper H100. If we go off that assumption, then there would be a massive useless supply of less-efficient H100s and B200s in 2027/2028 creating a used GPU market crash. HOWEVER: This is if we don't see an exponential demand for new AI capabilities (which we likely will, and what we're seeing now). Because of this exponential demand, TODAY, older models are still used (eg. TPUs from 7 years ago and GPUs from 2020), for lower inference task in lower priority inference tasks. $NVDA is backlogged for years and people are buying GPUs from $AMD /TPUs from $GOOGL to build out any new capacity. As for Cisco analogy, Cisco's customers were .com bubble companies with no profitability. $NVDA's customers are $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT the most profitable companies in the world. So worst case scenario we might see a correction, not a .com bubble crash.
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澄清NVDA与TPU性能对比误区，重申NVDA短期订单安全及长期技术优势。
是的，$NVDA 是强力买入标的。 然而，其他关于 $NVDA GPU 与 TPU 性能对比的病毒式传播的研究帖子，错误地拿旧一代 TPU v6e 来对比，以展示当前 $GOOGL TPU 与 $NVDA GPU 的情况。 我的帖子是关于新一代 TPU v7 Ironwood 与 $NVDA Blackwell B200 的对比，并展示了架构上的对等性。 TPU v7 Ironwood 的性能飞跃非常巨大（计算能力提升高达 10 倍），以至于 X 上流传的许多关于 TPU 推理能力和成本节约的研究具有误导性。 就买入逻辑而言，$NVDA 很可能在未来几代芯片中超越 TPU v7，且其巨大的积压订单为其提供了短期（2年）的安全性。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes $NVDA is a strong buy. However to the other viral research posts about $NVDA GPU vs TPU performance, they were falsely comparing older generation TPU v6e to show the current situation on $GOOGL TPU vs $NVDA GPU. My post was on newer TPU v7 Ironwood vs $NVDA Blackwell B200 and showing the architectural parity. The TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap is so substantial (up to 10x compute jump) that a lot of research going around X is misleading on the inference capabilities and cost savings of TPU. In terms of buy thesis, on $NVDA, they will likely leapfrog TPU v7 in newer gen chips in due time and their immense backlog provides them near term (2Y) security.
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指出基于旧版TPU的分析已过时，强调TPU v7性能飞跃使旧成本分析失效。
你发布的 @ArtificialAnlys 分析对于评估当前 $GOOGL TPU 与 $NVDA GPU 的局势已经过时/错误。他们基于 TPU v6e 进行了分析。 我的帖子是关于更新型号（TPU v7 Ironwood 与 $NVDA Blackwell B200）在架构上的对等性。 TPU v7 Ironwood 的性能飞跃如此巨大（计算能力提升高达 10 倍），以至于他们对 v6e 的成本分析已不再相关。
原推 ↗英文原文
The @ArtificialAnlys analysis you posted is outdated/ wrong for analyzing the current $GOOGL TPU vs. $NVDA GPU situation. They did theirs on TPU v6e. My post was on architectural parity on newer models (TPU v7 Ironwood vs $NVDA Blackwell B200). The TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap is so substantial (up to 10x compute jump) that their v6e cost analysis is irrelevant.
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NVDA短期强烈买入，下一代芯片优势明显，市场未放缓。
哈哈，我之前在 $NVDA 的公关稿下当“神评论” trolling（嘲讽/玩梗）火了。所以想帮我的哥们 Jensen 一把，写写关于 TPU vs GPU 争论的看法，以及股价下跌是否反应过度。给快速浏览的朋友划重点： - 基于订单积压（Backlog）的可见性，短期强烈买入。 - $NVDA 下一代芯片很可能在技术上超越 TPU。 - AI 市场正在扩张，我们没有看到放缓迹象。 - 唯一需要担心的是，如果人们刻意去买 TPU/AMD，即下一代超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）芯片，那也只有在 $NVDA 生产的任何 GPU 都卖断货的情况下才会发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
lol I was top comment trolling $NVDA's press release that went viral. so wanted to do my buddy Jensen a solid by writing up thoughts on TPU vs GPU arguments + whether stock drop was an overreaction. So TLDR for people skimming the post: - strong buy near term from backlog visibility - nvda next-gen chips will likely leapfrog tpu - ai expanding market, we're not seeing it slow down. - only thing to worry about is if people go out of their way to buy TPUs/AMD, next gen hyperscaler chips if and only if NVDA stops selling out of any GPUs they make.
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英伟达虽面临谷歌TPU等定制芯片竞争，但中期统治力稳固，逢低买入。
英伟达($NVDA)公布的2026财年Q3营收为570.1亿美元(+62.5% YoY)，表现强劲。并指引Q4营收超650亿美元(超预期30亿美元+)，以及通过CY 2026年Blackwell/Rubin系列营收超5000亿美元。尽管如此，股价仍下跌12%。现在$NVDA是强力买入吗？答案如下： $GOOGL的TPU项目成为首个对$NVDA GPU构成竞争替代的方案，Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，Meta据报道正在就数十亿美元的TPU采购进行高级别谈判。沃伦·巴菲特近期也向$GOOGL投资超40亿美元，鉴于伯克希尔对科技股保守的投资立场，这极为罕见。 尽管创下盈利新高，英伟达股价在过去10个交易日中有6天下跌，较10月29日触及5.03万亿美元市值时的历史高点$207.04下跌约12-15%。 分析师反应普遍看多，普遍上调目标价： - Evercore ISI从$261上调至$352 - 美银从$235上调至$275 - 花旗从$220上调至$270 - 高盛从$240上调至$250 - 摩根士丹利从$220上调至$235 但这里有个价值万亿美元的问题：超大规模客户日益增长的定制硅片威胁是否会削弱英伟达在AI领域的统治地位？ 与主要捕捉英伟达GPU缺货时的溢出需求的$AMD不同，谷歌的TPU项目代表了根本不同的竞争动态。 TPU v7 Ironwood是首款在性能上与Blackwell持平的非英伟达加速器，提供4.6 petaflops的FP8性能（对比B200的4.5 petaflops），配备192GB HBM3e内存。 Ironwood的架构差异化显著。虽然英伟达最大的集群配置为72个GPU(NVL72)，TPU Ironwood可扩展至9,216个芯片组。 客户斩获显著且不断增长： - Anthropic承诺采购超100万颗TPU芯片，价值“数百亿美元”，1GW算力即将上线。 - Meta正在就2026年从谷歌云租赁TPU容量进行高级别谈判，并计划2027年直接采购硬件用于自有数据中心。 - 苹果透露Apple Intelligence基础模型完全在TPU上训练，使用8,192颗TPUv4芯片用于服务器模型。 - Midjourney从GPU转向TPU，推理成本降低65%（从每月200万美元降至70万美元）。 定位微妙。TPU在超大规模推理方面表现出色，在生产级大规模服务中成本性能最高提升4倍（目前）。在训练方面，英伟达优势明显。 对于高度优化的推理任务，TPU架构可能比$NVDA的通用GPU更高效。 然而，我预计下一代英伟达GPU将在许多场景下在推理性能上超越TPU。（类似于LLM之间GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5的迭代超越） 我们看到： 谷歌TPU、AWS Trainium、Meta MTIA、微软Maia和定制超大规模芯片都在扩展，但仍依赖$NVDA。但超大规模客户集体减少对英伟达的依赖，其累积效应是否会削弱英伟达的统治地位？ 答案：不会。至少未来两年统治地位稳固。之后如何纯属猜测。 仅看数据：Q3结果证实公司仍是AI不可或缺的基础设施提供商，5000亿美元的订单积压为2026年提供了极高的可见性。 但市场似乎正在定价3年+后的这种微妙现实：长期面临超大规模客户定制芯片的竞争不确定性。 英伟达产能完全售罄，且很可能在下一代芯片中超越TPU性能（推理性能更高且保持通用性）。但定制硅片威胁和44倍市盈率的估值担忧仍是逆风。 无论如何，鉴于出色的超预期财报和未来两年的订单积压，$NVDA目前因恐惧而下跌，似乎是中期强力逢低买入的机会。 你只需要记住这一点： 只要英伟达仍是AI工作负载的行业首选，且TPU和AMD GPU仅在需求超过英伟达供应时填补空白，它就是强力买入标的。 英伟达订单积压已满，AI需求并未放缓。
原推 ↗英文原文
Nvidia ( $NVDA ) reported a blowout Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). And guided $65B+ Q4 ($3B+ beat), and $500B+ USD in Blackwell/Rubin rev through CY 2026. Despite that, the stock dropped 12%. Is $NVDA a strong buy now? Here's the answer: $GOOGL TPU's program emerged as the first competitive alternative to $NVDA GPUs, with Anthropic committing to over 1 million TPU chips and Meta reportedly in advanced negotiations for billions in TPU purchases. Warren Buffet also recently invested $4B+ into $GOOGL, which is extraordinarily rare given Berkshire's conservative stance to tech investments. Despite a record earnings beat, Nvidia's stock has declined in six of the last ten trading sessions and sits roughly 12-15% below its October 29 all-time high of $207.04, when it briefly touched a $5.03 trillion market cap. Analyst reaction was overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets raised across the board: - Evercore ISI raised to $352 from $261 - Bank of America raised to $275 from $235 - Citigroup raised to $270 from $220 - Goldman Sachs raised to $250 from $240 - Morgan Stanley raised to $235 from $220 But here's the trillion dollar question: will the emerging custom silicon threat from hyperscalers reduce NVIDIA dominance in AI? Unlike $AMD, which primarily captures overflow demand when NVIDIA GPUs are unavailable, Google's TPU program represents a fundamentally different competitive dynamic. TPU v7 Ironwood is the first non-NVIDIA accelerator that achieves performance parity with Blackwell, delivering 4.6 petaflops of FP8 performance (versus B200's 4.5 petaflops) with 192GB HBM3e memory. Ironwood's architectural differentiation is substantial. While NVIDIA's largest cluster configuration is 72 GPUs (NVL72), TPU Ironwood scleaes to 9,216 chip pods. The customer wins are significant and growing: - Anthropic committed to over 1 million TPU chips worth "tens of billions of dollars," with 1 gw of compute capacity coming online. - Meta is in advanced negotiations to rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud in 2026, with direct hardware purchases for its own data centers planned for 2027. - Apple revealed that Apple Intelligence foundation models were trained entirely on TPUs using 8,192 TPUv4 chips for server models - Midjourney switched from GPUs to TPUs and reduced inference costs by 65% (from $2M to $700K monthly) The positioning is nuanced. TPUs excel at hyperscale inference with up to 4x better cost-performance for production serving at scale (for now). For training, NVIDIA is the clear advantage. For highly optimized inference tasks, TPU architecture might remain more efficient than $NVDA's general-purpose GPU. However, I'm expecting next-gen Nvidia GPUs to leapfrog TPUs for inference in many scenarios. (similar to how LLMs leapfrog each other GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5) We're seeing: Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA, Microsoft Maia, and custom hyperscaler chips scale up to reliance on $NVDA. But will the cumulative effect on hyperscalers collectively reducing Nvidia's dominance? The answer: No. Not yet. Dominance is secured at least for the next two years. What happens after is only speculation. Just looking at the numbers: Q3 results confirm the company remains the essential infrastructure provider for AI, with a $500 billion order backlog providing exceptional visibility through 2026. But the market appears to be pricing in this nuanced reality 3 years+ from now: long-term competitive uncertainty with custom hyperscaler chips. Nvidia is completely sold out of capacity, and are likely to leapfrog TPU performance in their next generation chips (higher performance for inference while being general purpose). But the custom silicon threat and valuation concerns at 44x earnings remains a headwind. Regardless, $NVDA seems to be a strong mid term dip-buy now on fears, given the exceptional blowout earnings and backlog for the next 2 years. This is the only thing you need to remember: NVIDIA is a strong buy as long as it remains the industry’s first choice for AI workloads, with TPUs and AMD GPUs filling gaps when demand exceeds NVIDIA’s supply. Nvidia is maxed out on backlog, and AI demand is not slowing down.
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看好$NBIS极高增速及低市值潜力，类比Waymo扩张前景。
我见过$HOOD，也见过$META在IPO时的表现。除了$NVDA可能之外，我从未见过任何单一公司能像$NBIS这样以如此惊人的速度扩张。 在年经常性收入(ARR)已达10亿美元以上且同比增长300%+的基础上，还能实现700%+的同比增长，这种增长速度简直高得令人难以置信。 这仅仅是核心业务的表现。 在我上面的帖子中，Avride正处于像Waymo与$UBER合作那样大规模扩张的边缘。如果他们在德克萨斯州的启动顺利，我们可能会在地图上的各个地方看到它的出现。 很难给出目标价。我通常不会为单只股票唱多，但我从未见过一只具有如此荒谬高潜力的股票，其市值却如此之低。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've seen $HOOD, I've seen $META at IPO. Aside from maybe $NVDA, I've never seen any single company scale this incredibly fast before compared to $NBIS. Growing 700%+ Y/Y, when you're already doing $1B+ ARR from 300%+ Y/Y growth, is just unspeakably high growth. That's just the core business alone. In my post above, Avride is at the precipice of scaling like Waymo with $UBER. If their Texas launch goes well, we might just see this pop up everywhere around the map. Hard to give a price target. I normally don't bullpost a single stock but I haven't seen such a stupidly high potential stock sitting at a low marketcap before.
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博主调侃英伟达新闻稿呼吁停止抛售股票
@nvidianewsroom $NVDA 新闻稿翻译： “求求你们别再卖我们的股票了” https://t.co/Mc0x8zpJqH
原推 ↗英文原文
@nvidianewsroom $NVDA Press Release Translation: "pls stop selling our stock" https://t.co/Mc0x8zpJqH
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TPU/AMD因NVDA产能受限受追捧，若NVDA产能过剩才需担忧竞争逆风。
问得极好，我关于谷歌TPU（张量处理单元）有一个非常详尽且微妙的论点。 总结：真正需要担心的是，如果TPU和AMD在长期表现上优于$NVDA，导致人们**偏好**其他GPU并转而购买它们。而不是因为$NVDA的GPU卖光了，被迫去买替代品。 但这只是简版。目前的情况就像$AMD： 它是$NVDA潜在的竞争替代品，短期内对基本面影响不大。 这对$NVDA专属云（如$CRWV）和$NVDA自身（例如$META可能会购买TPU）构成长期逆风。但其中的微妙之处在于，$NVDA受限于GPU产能，否则$META可能根本不会去买任何TPU。 短期/中期对盈利影响不大。中期对$TSM、像$CIFR这样的 Colo（数据中心）提供商、以及GPU无关的云提供商构成顺风。 $NVDA刚经历了一个爆发性的季度，Q4预测也极其惊人。直接看那些营收预测就好。 所以我说的微妙之处在于：人们买$AMD和TPU是因为产能受限。$NVDA生产的任何东西都能售罄。 如果$NVDA生产的任何东西都卖不完，那时你才需要担心逆风和$NVDA的故事。
原推 ↗英文原文
Amazing question, so I have a really long nuanced thesis regarding Google TPUs. SUMMARY: The thing to be worried about is if TPUs and AMD outperform $NVDA long term, so people **PREFER** other GPUs and buy them instead. Not because they ran out of $NVDA GPUs to buy and are forced to go get alternatives. But this is a TLDR. Right now it's like $AMD: Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals. This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV ) and $NVDA itself (eg. how $META might buy TPUs ). But part of that nuance is because $NVDA is constrained on how much GPUs they can produce lol, otherwise $META might not just buy any TPUs. Short-term/mid-term it's not very material to earnings. Medium term tailwind for $TSM, colo providers like $CIFR, GPU agnostic cloud providers. $NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections. SO the nuance what I'm trying to say is people buy $AMD, TPUs because they're capacity straigned. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce. If $NVDA can't sell out of anything they produce, then that's where you get worried about the headwinds and $NVDA story.
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列举AI领域资本支出加速增长的10大证据，强调AI赛道持续高景气度与投资机遇
对于AI领域的任何人来说，很难不看好。 资本支出正在加速增长，而且是以指数级的速度。 直接流向以下几个方面： 新云服务商：$CIFR、$NBIS、$WULF、$IREN， 连接性：$ALAB、$CRDO、$CLS， 能源：$VST、$FLNC、$TE、$EOS， 半导体/晶圆厂：$NVDA、$AMD、$GOOGL、$TSM， 存储：$SNDK、$MU和$STX。 仅在过去几周，我们就看到： 1. AI曼哈顿计划——美国政府正给予顶级模型访问专有实验室数据的权限以加速研究。 2. $GOOGL在德克萨斯州投资400亿美元建设数据中心。 3. Anthropic投资500亿美元建设边缘计算基础设施以支持其Opus 4.5+模型。 4. $TSM公布创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出）。 5. $NVDA确认创纪录的远期收入数据（AI支出，锁定2年产量）。 6. $META将2025年数据中心/AI资本支出提升至400-450亿美元，用于llama5-6。 7. 今年三次降息以加速增长并降低融资成本。 8. Dominion Energy警告AI数据中心带来大规模电力负荷激增。 9. $AVGO表示AI网络订单达到前所未有的规模。 10. 阿联酋和主权国家推进AI发展。 我们没有看到任何放缓。只有创纪录的增长。 事实上，随着Claude Opus 4.5、Gemini 3的最新模型进展，以及美国政府的新承诺，感觉我们才刚刚看到人工智能新前沿的冰山一角。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Nebius [$NBIS]是当前被低估最多的成长型公司。 它有潜力以210亿美元的市值成为下一个$GOOGL。原因很简单： 它的投资组合公司令人惊叹。 这个概念最令人难以置信的例子是$FTX公司。以下是故事： 当我们观察$META如何增长成为万亿美元公司时，不仅仅是Facebook。他们的投资组合公司Instagram、Whatsapp和其他应用使Meta主导了社交媒体领域。 $FTX在数字资产和前沿技术领域做着类似的事情。 四年前，即2021年，$FTX向一个大资产篮子投资了58亿美元。其中很大一部分投入了这三家核心公司： 1. Anthropic，持股13.56%，估值25亿美元。 2. Robinhood [$HOOD]，持股7.6%，估值85.4亿美元。 3. Solana [$SOL]，4100万+代币。 快进到今天，那将是： · Anthropic最新一轮估值3500亿美元。那部分股份价值约474亿美元。 · Robinhood现在市值超过1000亿美元。那部分股份价值约76亿美元。 · Solana现在每个代币价值131.5美元，使那部分股份远超57亿美元。 仅这三家公司就在4年内产生了超过550亿美元的价值，这甚至还不包括FTX的数百亿美元加上其他数十项投资，以及Chime、Layerzero、Aptos、Hidden Road（被$COIN收购）和加密货币的持股。 他们的投资组合公司比他们的核心业务更持久（想象一下，如果核心业务像$GOOGL搜索和YouTube一样持续增长，那将价值多少）。 $NBIS现在有着与$FTX在加密领域、$META在社交媒体领域相同的布局，但在人工智能领域拥有合法且飞速增长的核心业务。 Nebius拥有： 1. Clickhouse，28%持股，估值约70亿美元（2025年上半年为63亿美元）。 2. Avride，83%持股，估值约60亿美元（优步融资后）。 3. Toloka AI，约65%持股，估值约6.4亿美元。 4. TripleTen，100%持股，估值约3亿美元。 · Clickhouse为Anthropic、$META、$TSLA、$NET和许多财富500强公司提供支持。 · Avride是一家自动驾驶出租车机器人公司，从Yandex分拆出来，$UBER在3.75亿美元融资轮中投资以与Waymo竞争。 · Toloka是一个AI标注平台，亚马逊、微软、Anthropic和Shopify都在使用。 19.6亿美元+49.6亿美元+4.16亿美元+3亿美元=76亿美元的投资组合公司估值，这些公司的增长速度超过大多数公开成长型公司。 但如果我们看看他们以每年700%+的速度增长至70-90亿美元ARR的核心业务，拥有48亿美元现金，为$META、$MSFT、Cursor、政府和更多客户提供支持…… 这可能是它以低于90美元的最后一个月，因为今天MSCI纳入将为其带来从数亿美元到低数十亿美元的额外资金流入。如果我们看看$IREN或$CIFR等热门选择，没有任何其他数据中心成长型公司有这种类型的投资组合。 $NBIS估值仅210亿美元，市场正在忽视这个机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.
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分析$NBIS自建数据中心、GPU贬值、融资稀释及过度建设四大风险。
关于风险的好问题，我也喜欢讨论下行风险。 1. 超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)在5年内完全自建数据中心，包括GPU（$GOOGL的TPU，$AWS的Tranium）、能源和选址。 这类似于高通(Qualcomm)与苹果的关系。苹果使用$QLCM，然后建立垂直整合——一旦完成就抛弃客户。因此在此期间建立公司自身护城河很重要（$NBIS在此期间通过Cursor、Shopify等企业客户进行全栈建设并扩展子公司。完全依赖一两个超大规模云厂商合同的公司表现不佳）。 2. $NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV和$ORCL的GPU贬值风险。 任何进行全栈服务的提供商都有更高的利润率、更高的收入和更快的爬坡速度。但这涉及在GPU上花费数十亿美元，而这些GPU在未来4年内价值大幅缩水。 我一直认为GPU多年后仍有价值，例如TPU仍在使用7-8年，2020年的$NVDA GPU仍高价转售并用于不同层级的推理（低优先级），并与新模型并行运行。 3. 信贷收紧+稀释 建设支出过多->需要更多稀释以建设和购买GPU。我们已经看到$4B可转债+$2.5B ATM发行。$NBIS应该足够，但始终存在利润率低于预期的风险（如$ORCL建设），然后公司需要更多稀释。在更难融资的市场中（如$APLD垃圾债），可能会遇到$CRWV的问题，被迫以糟糕的利率融资，侵蚀利润率。 4. 过度建设 如果LLM软件有突破，例如Claude Opus 4.5使用DeepSeek类型的轻量级推理，那么GPU利用率降低，我们会看到数据中心、$NVDA、$AMD等随AI浪潮下跌。 这些可能是$NBIS的四个主要风险。每家公司不同，对于$IREN我会指出其IaaS层的软件编排以优化利润率，但$NBIS已经掌握这一点。
原推 ↗英文原文
Good question about risk, I enjoy talking about the downsides too. 1. Hyperscalers completely their own datacenter buildout with GPUs (TPUs with $GOOGL, Tranium with $AWS), energy, locations in 5+ years. This is the analogy of Qualcomm with Apple. Apple just uses $QLCM, then builds it's own vertical integration -> once it's done it sacks the customer. Hence why it's important to build up a company's own moat during the time ( $NBIS is doing full-stack with its own enterprise clients like cursor, shopify, etc during this time and scaling subsidiaries. Companies fully dependent on one or two hyperscaler contracts don't do well). 2. GPU deprecation for $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL. Any provider doing full stack has higher margins, higher revenue, higher ramp. But that comes into spending billions on GPUs and the GPUs not too much value over the course of the next 4 years. I've always maintained GPUs are still valuable many years later, eg. TPUs still are used 7-8 years later, 2020 $NVDA GPUs are still resold high and are used different stacks of inference (lower prio) but run alongside newer models. 3. Credit tightening + dilution Too much spend on buildout -> needs to dilute more to build + buy GPUs. We've already seen that with the $4B convertible + $2.5B ATM offering. $NBIS should have enough, but there's always the risk margins are lower than expected eg. $ORCL buildout, then the company needs to dilute more. In a market where it's harder to raise eg. $APLD junk bonds, it might run into the $CRWV problem where they are forced to raise money with terrible interest rates cutting into the margins. 4. Overbuildout If there's a breakthrough in LLM software, for example, Claude Opus 4.5 using deepseek type lightweight inference, then less utilization of GPUs then we see data centers, $NVDA, $AMD, and others go down with the AI ship. Those are probably the four main risks for $NBIS. This is different for each company, for $IREN I would point to software orchestration for their iaas layer for margin optimization but for $NBIS they have that down.
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分析超大规模云厂商数据中心模式差异及潜在合作逻辑
我不会像某些特定的 $BMNR 或 $IREN 投资者那样盲目吹捧，认为街上的绿灯就意味着对公司利好。所以我倾向于认为这只是巧合。因为看起来 $AMZN、$GOOGL 倾向于偏好数据中心托管(Colo)模式（因为他们可以插入自己的 TPU、未来的 Trainium 芯片），而 $MSFT、$META（以及 99.9% 使用 $NVDA 且没有现成定制芯片的 AI 公司）则偏好 $NBIS、$IREN 类型的模式。所以 $AMZN 宣布在印第安纳州为其 AWS 数据中心部门投资 150 亿美元。但关键要注意的是，他们此前在那里已经花费了 313 亿美元，所以这并不算全新投入。你可能看到了 $NBIS 正在印第安纳波利斯附近建设 1000 多英亩的绿地数据中心。这只是一个有利于建设的区域，可能并非针对合作伙伴关系或像 Anthropic（最近承诺 400 亿美元资本支出）那样的另一笔超大规模云厂商交易。说实话，我现在可能更相信 Anthropic 的资本支出承诺而不是 OpenAI。话虽如此，也许如果 $AMZN 耗尽容量并达到与 $NVDA 的最大采购订单上限（因为他们正在插入自己的 $CIFR 芯片），他们可能会转而使用 Nebius。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm not going to be a blind shill like some specific $BMNR or $IREN investors that can say a green light on the street means bullish for the company. So I would lean coincidental. Since it looks like $AMZN, $GOOGL tends to favor colo models (since they can plug in their own TPUs, Trainium chips in the future) while $MSFT, $META (and 99.9% of AI companies that use $NVDA and don't have custom chips readily built out) prefer $NBIS, $IREN type models. So $AMZN announced they're investing $15B in Indiana for their AWS DC segment. But key thing to note is they've already spent $31.3B there before so it's not exactly new. You probably saw how $NBIS is doing a 1000+ acre greenfield DC near Indianapolis. It's just a favorable area for buildout, probably not directed at a partnership and another hyperscaler deal like Antrhopic (who committed $40B in capex spend recently). I'd probably trust Antrophic more than OpenAI right now with capex spend lol. That being said, maybe if $AMZN runs out of capacity and hits max purchase order with $NVDA (since they're plugging in their own chips with $CIFR), they would use Nebius instead.
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构建金融数据接入LLM成本高昂，散户难以获得机构级Alpha生成能力。
嗯，这种方法需要花费数百万美元来构建定制化的金融数据管道（Financial Data Pipelines）接入到大语言模型（LLM）中（我不想花这笔钱）。 这大概是对 @demishassabis、@sama、@elonmusk、@DarioAmodei、@ylecun、@arthurmensch、@aidangomez 或者拥有资源的初创公司来说的一个挑战。 这绝对是一个价值十亿美元的问题：如何让散户也能通过提示词（Prompt）获得与 Jane Street 算法同等的阿尔法（Alpha）生成能力。 我可以开源一个轻量级版本，就像上面的 LLM 委员会那样，仅基于我个人的领域特定判断，但肯定无法做到深入。有趣的事实是，$NVDA 过去曾试图招募我领导他们的人工智能团队之一，所以也许如果我现在没忙于其他事情的话……
原推 ↗英文原文
Uh this approach would cost millions into building custom financial data pipelines into the LLM (which I don't want to spend). Prob a challenge for @demishassabis, @sama, @elonmusk, @DarioAmodei, @ylecun, @arthurmensch, @aidangomez or a startup with the resources. Definitely a billion dollar question for alpha generation to make the same Jane Street algorithm capability available to retail to prompt. I could open source a lightweight version like the LLM council above just based on my own domain-specific judgment, but won't be anywhere close to being in-depth. Fun fact, $NVDA tried recruiting me to lead one of their AI teams in the past so mybe if i wasn't working on other things right now
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宏观因素致抛售，预计周一反转并抢跑12月降息。
所以我提到的四个宏观要点是此次抛售的更大原因。上周五有大量期权头寸到期，我猜测在 $NVDA 财报后，这纯粹是由算法驱动的（而且至今仍说不通）。然而，导致更长期抛售的主要原因包括：由币安(Binance)引发的连锁加密货币保证金清算、降息概率变化、AI信贷压力以及日元套利交易(Yen carry trade)。我猜测市场将在本周一反转，并在市场迫使美联储(Fed)降息后重新定价并抢跑12月降息（且在期权到期后）。不过，我不确定日元套利交易的抛售会在多大程度上抵消这一影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
So the four macro points I talked about was the larger reason for the selloff. There was a huge amount of option interest expiring last Friday, and my guess post $NVDA earnings was that it was purely algorithmic driven (and still doesn't make much sense). The larger overhang about the cascading crypto margin liqudations caused from Binance, Rate cut odds changing, AI credit stress, and yen carry trade are the main reasons behind the longer sell-off though. My guess is market reversal this Monday and repricing in + frontrunning December ratecut after markets bulled Fed into cutting (and after option expirations. However, I don't know how much possible Yen carry trade selloff offsets this.
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四大流动性冲击引发高杠杆资产暴跌，但AI巨头基本面未变。
市场刚刚经历了近代史上最严重的去杠杆冲击。 高贝塔资产正在崩溃： • $NBIS, $IREN, AI 股票从高点下跌约 40%+ • $MSTR, $BTC 在过去一个月暴跌 30-40%+ • 加密货币市值蒸发超过 1.2 万亿美元 这不正常，这是针对市场上增长最快且杠杆最高的板块的强制平仓。 以下是同时发生的四个流动性流失因素： 1. 加密货币前兆冲击（2025 年 10 月 – Binance 故障） • Binance 的定价错误导致 USDe 跌至 0.65 美元，在 24 小时内触发了超过 190 亿美元的强制清算 • 使用 USDe/wBETH/BNSOL 的高杠杆头寸（25x–50x）引发了全行业连锁保证金清算的连锁反应 • 该事件使加密货币结构脆弱，波动性现在威胁到流入 $MSTR/国债股票超过 70 亿美元的 MSCI 资金，存在 BTC/NAV 错配和强制出售比特币的风险 2. 美联储政策不确定性（降息鞭打效应） • 在美联储发出矛盾信号后两天内，市场对 12 月降息预期从 97% → 35% → 70%+ • 这种波动起到了隐性紧缩的作用，迫使杠杆基金和算法（在 $NVDA 财报后看到的情况）提前去杠杆 • 政策模糊性提高了全球风险，将美国的不确定性传导至全球融资市场的广泛抛售 3. AI 信贷压力（投机性债务破裂） • AI 建设需要 3.5 万亿美元的外部融资，促使公司大量进入债务市场 • Google + XAI 在 Similarweb 上的使用量提升引发了人们对 OpenAI 和循环融资的担忧，以及 $1T+ 的资本支出流向 $ORCL, $CRWV, $AMD 等公司，而这些公司并没有必要的资本。 • Applied Digital [ $APLD ] 23.5 亿美元垃圾债券（评级 B+）暴露了交易对手和集中度风险，由于需要更多债务来资助建设，其股票及相关数据中心股票下跌。 • 资本市场开始区分拥有真实现金流的公司和依赖投机性债务及 OpenAI 合同的公司，惩罚了如 $ORCL 和 $CRWV 等标的。 4. 日元套利交易平仓（催化剂） • 日本央行加息至 0.5% 及正常化缩小了美日利差，挤压了 80 万亿日元（约 5000 亿美元）的杠杆头寸 • 日本国债收益率上升引发回流资金，给美国收益率带来压力并抽干全球流动性 • 强制平仓导致投资者出售美国科技股和加密货币以偿还日元贷款，加剧了避险情绪的连锁反应 底线： 所有四个冲击都从市场的同一角落抽干了流动性——高贝塔、高杠杆资产，导致成长型科技和加密货币剧烈去杠杆，并增加了进一步强制抛售的风险。 过度的杠杆、脆弱的资产负债表和集中度风险决定了哪些资产跌幅最大。 美联储开启新一轮降息周期是一个“拐点”，投资者需要判断这种宽松是预防性措施还是对更严重衰退的反应。然而有一件事是确定的： 宏观冲击重置了估值，但并没有改变从 $NBIS 到 $META 的企业基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets just suffered their worst deleveraging shock in recent history. High-beta assets are collapsing: • $NBIS, $IREN, AI stocks are down ~40%+ from peaks • $MSTR, $BTC plunged 30-40%+ in the past month • Crypto erased over $1.2 trillion in value This wasn’t normal, it was a forced unwind across the markets with the most growth and leverage. Here's the four liquidity drains hitting at once: 1. Crypto precursor shock (Oct 2025 – Binance failure) • A pricing error on Binance sent USDe to $0.65, triggering $19B+ in forced liquidations in 24 hours • Highly leveraged positions (25x–50x) using USDe/wBETH/BNSOL cascaded into a chain reaction of cascading margin liquidations across the industry • The event left crypto structurally fragile, and volatility now threatens $7B+ MSCI inflows into $MSTR/treasury stocks, risking BTC/NAV mispricing and forced Bitcoin sales 2. Fed policy uncertainty (rate cut whiplash) • Markets priced a December cut at 97% → 35% → 70%+ in two days after conflicting Fed signals • This volatility acted as a stealth tightening, forcing leveraged funds and algorithms (seen post $NVDA earnings) to deleverage pre-emptively • Policy ambiguity raised global risk, transmitting U.S. uncertainty into broad selling across global funding markets 3. AI credit stress (speculative debt cracks) • AI build-out requires $3.5T in external financing, pushing companies heavily into debt markets • Google + XAI raise in usage per similarweb raised concerns about OpenAI and circular financing, alongside how $1T+ in capex spend going into $ORCL, $CRWV, $AMD, and others without having the ncessary capital. • Applied Digital [ $APLD ] $2.35B junk bond (rated B+) exposed counterparty and concentration risk, sending its stock and related data center stocks down due to the need of more debt to fund buildout. • Capital markets began differentiating between firms with real cash flow and those reliant on speculative debt and OpenAI contracts, punishing names such as $ORCL and $CRWV. 4. Yen carry trade unwind (the catalyst) • BoJ rate hikes to 0.5% and normalization narrowed the U.S.–Japan rate gap, squeezing ¥80T (~$500B) in leveraged positions • Rising JGB yields triggered repatriation flows, pressuring U.S. yields and draining global liquidity • Forced unwinds led investors to sell U.S. tech and crypto to repay yen loans, amplifying the risk-off cascade Bottom line: All four shocks drained liquidity from the same corner of the market, high-beta, leveraged assets, driving a violent unwind in growth tech and crypto and raising the risk of further forced selling. Excessive leverage, fragile balance sheets, and concentration risk determined which assets crashed the hardest. The beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle by the Fed is an "inflection point" as investors need to determine whether the easing is a preventative measure or a reaction to a more serious downturn. However one thing is for certain: The macro shock reset valuations, but it didn’t change the fundamentals of businesses from $NBIS to $META.
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Coreweave因高债务和OpenAI依赖被评F级，NBIS更优。
如果你花30秒读一下帖子，就会发现我并没有给 $BITF 评级。 关于 $CRWV，短期有上涨空间，因为抛售至60美元区间确实过度了。但中长期的债务利息负担过重。 相比之下，$NBIS 和 $IREN 通过可转换债券融资或低利息，每季度对利润率的侵蚀很小；而 Coreweave 每年支付的债务利息超过12亿美元。 此外，OpenAI 占其总积压订单的三分之一。虽然他们拥有一些有防御性的大型超大规模客户（$META, $MSFT）以及 $NVDA 的背书，但像 $ORCL 那样为 OpenAI 建设基础设施，鉴于其缺乏收入以及 Gemini ($GOOGL) 的竞争，存在相当大的风险。 因此，尽管 Coreweave 是备受好评的全栈式服务供应商，但由于荒谬的债务利息侵蚀利润率，加上积压订单高度集中于 OpenAI（合同不确定性），其评级为 F 级，而这并不影响像 $NBIS 这样多元化的全栈式服务供应商。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you spent just 30 seconds reading the post, you would see I didn't rate $BITF. With $CRWV there's short term upside because sell-off was way too much to the $60s. But medium-long term they have way too much debt interest. While $NBIS and $IREN funds through convertibles or little interest cutting into margins every quarter, Coreweave pays over $1.2B+ in annual debt expense interest. OpenAI also makes up 1/3th of their total backlog, so while they have some defensible hyperscalers ( $META, $MSFT) + $NVDA backstop, building out for OpenAI like $ORCL, presents considerable risk given their lack of revenue + Gemini $GOOGL competition. So they are F tier despite being a highly rated full-stack offering due to absurd debt interest cutting into margins + large concentration of backlog from OpenAI (contract uncertainty) that don't affect diversified full-stack offerings like $NBIS.
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NBIS 遭算法抛售大跌，作者认为基本面未变，跌幅不合理。
是的，全市场的反转让我措手不及。$NBIS 毫无理由地从 103 美元跌至 84 美元。Citadel 的 Rubner 表示，尽管 $NVDA 财报大幅超预期，但这纯粹是为了“去风险”目的的算法抛售。恰好明天有大量未平仓合约到期。撇开期权流向不谈，我认为因 25 个基点（bps）就出现 40% 的抛售是不合理的。“担心 AI 泡沫”或 25 个基点并不会如此根本性地改变基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah market wide reversal caught me by surprise. $NBIS ended up dropping from $103 to $84 for little reason. Rubner from Citadel was saying it was a purely algorithmic selloff despite $NVDA massive earnings beat for "derisking" purposes. Just so happens tons and tons of open interest expiring tomorrow. Option flow aside, don't think a 40% selloff is warranted for 25bps. "Fearing an AI bubble" or 25 BPS doesn't change fundamentals that instrumentally.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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NVDA财报暗示需求加速，利好CIFR等供应链个股。
@soulbiri1 是的，像 $CIFR 这样的股票盘后上涨了 17%。 这并不意味着开盘后价格能守住，但市场有时只需要一个借口来反弹。 从 $NBIS 到 $CIFR 的基本面依然完好，但 $NVDA 的财报只是指向需求加速。 https://t.co/oZqWb7jrL7
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah stuff like $CIFR is up 17% after hours. Doesn’t mean the price will hold market open, but market just needs an excuse for things to rally sometimes. Fundamentals are already in-tact for $NBIS to $CIFR but $NVDA earnings just point toward accelerated demand. https://t.co/oZqWb7jrL7
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感叹英伟达在巨大市值下仍保持惊人增长。
@harjaprama76404 是的，$NVDA 的增长势头确实惊人，尤其是考虑到它的市值，哈哈。
原推 ↗英文原文
@harjaprama76404 Yeah $NVDA growth is wild, especially at their market cap lol
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CRWV基本面强但负债高，建议短线交易而非长持
手滑发错了，重读时觉得没必要编辑。$CRWV 超卖，550亿美元积压订单，Neocloud 领域龙头，有 $NVDA 背书，业绩不及预期源于数据中心(DC)延迟，仅将收入推迟至后续季度。但我不会长期持有（220亿积压订单来自OpenAI），相比同行其高债务利息侵蚀自由现金流(FCF)/利润率，且资产负债表薄弱（如18亿美元现金），在当前信贷收紧环境下更易受冲击（尤其与未获融资的OpenAI高度相关）。若现价$75持有我不会卖出，但也不会长期持有（仅做短线交易）。发帖时大概就在纠结这算哪类。
原推 ↗英文原文
Accident, didn't feel like editing the post when I read it again. $CRWV is oversold, $55B backlog, Neocloud sector leader, backstopped by $NVDA, miss due to DC delays, just shifts revenue down toward later quarters. However, I would not hold it ($22B of backlog is OpenAI), high debt interest compared to others that cut into FCF/margins, and low balance sheet eg. $1.8B cash which makes it more susceptible to credit tightening right now (especially with correlation to OpenAI with doesnt have the funding). I wouldn’t sell it if I had it now at $75, but I wouldn’t long term hold it either (short term trade). I was probably wondering what category that fits in when I made the post earlier.
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TSM盈利是AI核心指标，超大规模云厂商建设不受NVDA财报影响。
我的观点是，$TSM 的未来盈利（forward earnings）是迄今为止人工智能交易（AI trade）最大的指标，因为它涵盖了从 $GOOGL TPU 生产到 $AMZN，以及 $NVDA、$AMD 等所有超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers），且我们已看到其盈利和利润率大幅超出预期。 即使 $NVDA 的未来营收被大幅下调（我对此表示怀疑），也不会使 $MSFT 到 $IREN、$AMZN 到 $CIFR 等公司已签订的多年度算力（compute）积压订单失效。 我们已看到 Anthropic 与 $MSFT Azure 的算力协议（这将惠及 $NBIS、$IREN 和 $CRWV 等），$GOOGL 近日建设超 400 亿美元的数据中心（此前已与 $WULF、$CIFR/FluidStack 签署托管设施（colo）协议），$NVDA 的财报不会改变超大规模云服务商的建设步伐。 但它确实对整个 AI 交易产生重大影响，并直接影响 $NVDA GPU 板块（例如重度依赖 $NVDA 的 AI 云厂商）。
原推 ↗英文原文
My opinion is that $TSM forward earnings was the biggest indicator of the AI trade so far since they span from all hyperscalers such as $GOOGL TPU prod to $AMZN, as well as $NVDA, $AMD, and we've already seen them blow away earnings + margins. Even if $NVDA forward revenue is quoted heavily downward (which I doubt), it won't invalidate multi-year contracted compute backlog from $MSFT to companies like $IREN or $AMZN to $CIFR made already. We're already seeing Anthropic x $MSFT compute deals with Azure today (which flows down to $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV others), $GOOGL build out a $40B+ datacenter the other day (they've made colo deals with $WULF, $CIFR / fluidstack previously), and $NVDA earnings won't the change the hyperscaler buildout. But it does have a large impact on the overall AI trade as well + directly affect $NVDA GPU parts of the sector (eg. $NVDA heavy AI clouds).
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反驳 Burry 观点，指出旧款 GPU/TPU 仍高利用率且具残值。
关于 $ORCL、$NBIS 及其他新云厂商 GPU 折旧论点的简要总结： Burry 的一般主张：处于 2-3 年产品周期的芯片资本支出（Capex）不应导致有用寿命的延长。 这一观点错误但具有细微差别： -> 以 $GOOGL 为例，其 7 年前的张量处理单元(TPU) 仍以 100% 利用率运行。 “谷歌称 TPU 需求超过供应，声称 8 年前的硬件迭代‘利用率达 100%’”——数据中心动态 -> 以 $NVDA 为例，A100（PCIe 和 SXM4 变体）仍在运行。它们于 2020 年发布，现在是 2025 年。旧型号保持价值并仍能带来收益。 它们具有残值，5 年后仍能高价转售。他在货架寿命上错了，但在某些超大规模云服务商如何拉伸利用率概念以证明激进资本支出合理性方面，他可能是对的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a TLDR on the GPU depreciation argument for $ORCL, $NBIS and other neoclouds, Burry's general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives. This is incorrect but nuanced: -> in $GOOGL's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are still run at 100% utilization. " Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics -> in $NVDA's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later. He's wrong on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex.
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反驳Burry观点，论证旧GPU/TPU因残值仍具价值。
所以@michaeljburry 完全错了，因为 $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/芯片的“保质期(shelf life)”并非他所声称的那样。但这很微妙，因为“利用率(utilization)可能被夸大以证明资本支出(capex)合理性”这一观点确实有一定道理。 你在这里同意我的观点，即它们仍然有用，但你只是在解释为什么出于必要性仍在继续使用它们。 我说的是GPU和TPU保留了残值(residual value)，并举了5-7年前的例子。 如果7年前的TPU因算力约束仍在运行，它们就仍有用途并保留价值。如果5年前的GPU仍在运行且能以高价转售，它们就保留了残值，因为它们被用于低优先级的推理(inference)并实现了货币化。
原推 ↗英文原文
So @michaeljburry is completely wrong in the sense that the shelf life of a $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/ chips is not what he’s claiming. But it’s nuanced because there’s some truth the idea of utilization might be stretched to justify capex. You’re agreeing with me here in that they’re still useful but you’re just explaining why they’re still used out of necessity. I was saying GPUs and TPUs retained residual value and gave ones from 5-7 years ago as an example. If 7 year old TPUs are still running because of compute constraints, they’re still useful and retain value. If 5 year old GPUs are still running and can be resold at high values, they’re retain residual value because they get monetized for lower prio inference.
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看好AMD上行潜力及HOOD长期价值，短期略高估
两者都是优质的多头标的，$AMD 拥有极高的上行潜力（仅参考 $NVDA 的市值即可见），且 Sam Altman 和 Elon 确认 AMD 在前沿模型中具有极高效用，这是极其积极的信号。 $HOOD 是一家世代级的公司。高确信度的长期持有。短期来看，我认为它像 $RKLB 一样略微高估。
原推 ↗英文原文
Both good longs, $AMD has extremely high upside potential (just looking at $NVDA's marketcap) and Sam Altman/Elon confirming AMD has high utility for frontier models is extremely positive. $HOOD generational company. High conviction long term. Short-term I'd argue it's a tad overvalued like $RKLB.
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AMD市值潜力取决于AI模型应用，但鉴于对台积电依赖，仓位较小。
嗯，如果萨姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)和埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)关于前沿模型能充分利用AMD的说法属实，$AMD 的市值潜力有望达到 $NVDA 目前的水平。不过，OpenAI 目前承诺每年为 $AMD 带来额外数百亿美元的前瞻性收入，这显得有些过于乐观，让我们拭目以待。这也正是我的 $AMD 仓位相对于 $TSM 较小的原因，以及我说过无需将 AMD 与 NVDA 或 $IREN 与 $NBIS 进行比较的原因，因为所有环节都依赖于 $TSM。
原推 ↗英文原文
Hmm, $AMD has potential to be $NVDA’s current market cap if what Sam Altman + Elon Musk says is true in how frontier models can use it well. Then again OpenAi is promising too many things right now in terms of an additional tens of billions of forward revenue a year to $AMD, so we’ll see. That’s kind of why my AMD position sizes were small relative to $TSM, and why I’ve said you don’t need to compare AMD to NVDA or $IREN to $NBIS when every single thing is reliant on $TSM
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感冒简评：META/NBIS错杀强买，警示IREN/ETH，宏观看多AI基建。
11月4日 - 个股分析 + 宏观 清仓抛售：$META • $NBIS • $IBIT 强烈买入：$RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ 存储：南亚科 $2408，SK海力士 $HXSCL，美光 $MU 买入：$AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE 警示：$IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCL 量子计算：$IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS 通常我会逐一列表，列出更多的买卖建议并解释每一个原因，但我感冒了。 所以今天只做极简版，懒得研究更多股票。喝着汤，只关注几只股票并给出更广泛的概述。（如果有人问，我会帮忙解释。） $META： 再次强烈、强烈、强烈建议在财报大跌15%+及盘后下跌时买入。 营收超预期。每股收益(EPS)超预期。远期盈利完好。 如果计入一次性税收，EPS为$7.25对$6.67，但显示为$1.05（大幅不及预期），导致算法立即抛售。随后的抛售中，机械性资金流通常会将价格推得更低，但趋势通常在1-2周内反转。 利用这一点。 像“Meta在AI上花费太多”这样的叙事可能是噪音。每家Mag7公司都在增加AI资本支出，除非你从云/ASIC角度争论，否则Meta并没有做任何异常的事。有时真正的原因更愚蠢，比如算法未能识别一次性税收的标准化。 当低贝塔值的Mag7因非实质性原因下跌16%+时，有很大的获利潜力。 警示类别摘要： 不是叫卖，只是给出公平警示，让人们自行决定。 量子计算：仍无收入证明价格飙升的合理性。某些数据中心股票，即使回调后，也有远期营收+自由现金流支撑估值。 $ETH：高于$3K不是强买入（自$4.8K以来立场相同）。 $BMNR：ETH国库策略；以溢价追踪ETH价格。除非有国有化潜力（如$MSTR），否则国库策略不好。 $CRCL：下个月有巨大、巨大、巨大的股份解禁。 $IREN：$MSFT合同在标题上看起来很棒（$9B+营收，超大规模云厂商交易），但实际上利润率很差。 交易不是纯托管；$IREN吸收了~$5.8B的GPU+辅助设备资本支出。 毛利率：最好只有30%出头，自由现金流盈利能力可能降至个位数。相比之下，$NBIS的交易结构更好（$11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr）。 交易验证了超大规模云厂商将与IREN签约（正面），但交易本身很糟糕。不是卖出，只是警示那些因标题而FOMO的人。 如果你想FOMO进什么，$CIFR（AWS合同）更有意义。 _ 宏观观点： 市场一直在抛售高贝塔值股票，可能只是正常回调。 逆风： 鲍威尔暗示第三次降息不确定 -> 重新定价。 政府停摆可能延长（短期逆风）。历史上，重新开放后回调会迅速反转。 事件市场定价11月14日为结束日期（还有9天）。 如果像$NBIS（-7.9%）这样拥有惊人远期营收支撑的名字没有实质性变化，大跌时是极好的买入机会。还有像$RDDT这样发布了好财报却跌了7%的股票，也是强烈的买入机会。 泡沫在美联储收紧时破裂。我们已经有了两次降息，还有一次很可能。不要跟随那个预测了过去1次崩溃中5000次的《富爸爸穷爸爸》家伙。 AI ≠ 泡沫 yet - 由Mag7财报、真实营收和利润支撑。但如果OpenAI继续在没有资金的情况下过度承诺合同，以后可能开始像泡沫（1-2年后的投影风险）。 摘要：随着降息后的宽松，市场可能趋势向上。 数据中心建设保持完整（Mag7财报显示巨大的AI资本支出）。 回调中保持强劲的板块：存储 • 能源 • 半导体 • 连接 • 新云 保持多头，在这些回调中建立仓位
原推 ↗英文原文
November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE Warnings: $IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCLQuantum: $IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS Normally I'd go down the list, have more buy/sells, and talk about every single explanation but I caught a cold. So just doing an extremely light version today and didn’t feel like researching more stocks. Just focusing on a few with a broader overview while I drink some soup. (Will help explain if someone asks though.) $META: Once again, Strong, Strong, Strong Buy on the 15%+ earnings drop and post-ER drop. Beat on Revenue. Beat on EPS. Forward earnings intact. If you factor in one-time tax, EPS was $7.25 to $6.67, but it showed as $1.05 (huge miss), which led to algorithmic sell-offs immediately after. Following sell-offs, mechanical flows often push prices lower, but trends usually reverse in 1–2 weeks. Take advantage of this. Narratives like “Meta spending too much on AI” are likely noise. Every Mag7 company is increasing AI capex, Meta isn’t doing anything unusual unless you argue from a cloud/ASIC standpoint. Sometimes the real reason is dumber like algorithms not recognizing one-time tax normalization. Lot of profit potential when lower-beta Mag7 drops 16%+ on nothing material. Warnings Category TLDR: Not calling sells, just giving fair warnings so people can decide for themselves. Quantum: Still no revenue to justify price surges. Certain data center stocks, even after corrections, have forward revenue + FCF to back valuations. $ETH: Not a strong buy above $3K (same stance since $4.8K). $BMNR: ETH treasury play; tracks ETH price with a premium. Treasury plays aren’t good unless potential for nationalization (eg. $MSTR). $CRCL: Massive, massive, massive share unlock coming next month. $IREN: The $MSFT contract looks great in headlines ($9B+ revenue, Hyperscaler deal), but in reality, margins are poor. Deal isn’t pure colo; $IREN absorbs ~$5.8B capex in GPUs + ancillary equipment. Gross margins: low 30s at best, can drop to single-digit FCF profitability. By comparison, $NBIS had a structurally better deal ($11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr). The deal validated that hyperscalers will sign with IREN (positive), but the deal itself was terrible.Not a sell, just a warning for people FOMOing the headline. If you want to FOMO into something, $CIFR (AWS contract) makes more sense. _ Macro View: Markets have been selling off high-beta stocks, likely just a normal correction. Headwinds: Powell signaling a third rate cut isn’t certain -> repricing. Gov shutdown likely extends (short-term headwind). Historically, corrections reverse quickly after reopen. Event markets price Nov 14th as end date (9 days out). If there’s no material change for names like $NBIS (-7.9%), backed by insane forward revenue, great buy on the dip. Also stuff like $RDDT that posted great ER but dropped 7.% also strong buying opportunity. Bubbles pop under Fed tightening. We've had two rate cuts, and another still likely. Don’t follow the Rich Dad Poor Dad dude who predicted 5000 of the last 1 crashes. AI ≠ bubble yet - backed by Mag7 earnings, real revenue, and profits. But if OpenAI keeps over-promising contracts without funds, it could start resembling one later (projection risk 1–2 years out). TLDR: Markets likely trend higher as easing follows rate cuts. Data center buildout remains intact (Mag7 earnings show huge AI capex). Sectors that stay strong on corrections: Memory • Energy • Semi • Connectivity • Neoclouds Stay long and build positions on these dips
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推荐年末满仓MINT组合（META/IBIT/NBIS/TSM），利用错杀与高非对称回报。
只有四只股票： 🍬 MINT 拥有极其高、非对称的回报。 意味着低资本风险，高上行回报。 这仅适用于2025年11月和12月。 就是它... MINT 关于为何在2025年底满仓MINT的解释： M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM 将这些神圣的成长型公司纳入你的投资组合，你可以让呼吸更清新，从而吸引Sydney Sweeney： Mag7。加密货币。AI数据中心。半导体。 $META - Meta ___________ 愚蠢的抛售。 营收超预期。每股收益超预期。强劲指引。 当你看到营收512.4亿美元（同比+26.25%），净利润27.1亿美元（同比-82.73%）时，纸面上看起来极其糟糕。 🟢 营收：512.4亿美元 vs. 预期494.1亿美元 剔除一次性税收影响 → 🟢 每股收益：7.25美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 包含一次性税收影响 → 🔴 每股收益：1.05美元 vs. 预期6.67美元 我猜测最初的抛售是由算法驱动的，随后由机械性资金流引起。许多高频交易(HFT)和新闻解析系统会对直接从数据源（彭博、路透等）拉取的头条每股收益数字做出反应。 如果报告的GAAP每股收益（1.05美元）与共识预期（6.67美元）并列显示，系统会将其标记为大幅不及预期。显然这是推测性的，但许多模型并未编程以归一化处理一次性税收费用（这是新的），也不会知道去查看实际超预期的调整后每股收益（7.25美元）。 现在新闻声称抛售是由于AI资本支出惊喜所致。如果接受这个说法，因“AI资本支出增加”而下跌15%+纯粹是叙事，毫无意义，因为$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$TSLA以及每一个Mag7都在增加资本支出。 $META做同样的事却遭到抛售说不通，除非人们认为它只是进入一个没有投资回报的黑洞（市场不同意，因为AI基本上在推动$SPY）。 一旦周末有时间让人们消化实际发生的情况，恢复将是极强的买入机会。误读+愚蠢的叙事可能导致短期过度反应（1-2个交易日），通常会被逆转。 $IBIT - 比特币 ___________ 它是比特币。目前位于11万美元。 随着美国政府的支持，以及持续的货币通胀+资金流向新一代人，没有比BTC更好的通胀对冲工具了。 Polymarket仍然定价比特币在2个月内上涨40%至13万美元，即使它上涨几个百分点，你也可以在加密货币和底层资产上获得上行空间。 $NBIS - Nebius ___________ 核心业务估值：310-365亿美元 分部加总（现金、资产、投资组合）：~106亿美元（削减40% = ~63亿美元） 基准情景估值：~390亿美元 → 即使零增长也有高上行空间 核心业务有望在FY26-27实现~50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，60-70%毛利率，30%息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)目标。 通过再达成一个超大规模云厂商协议+SMB扩张，实现80-120亿美元ARR可能证明~1000亿美元估值合理。 无有毒债务，高GPU利用率，全栈架构 → 更高的经营杠杆。 你可以看我引用的要点比较，以便你对$NBIS vs $IREN做出自己的判断。 然而，我将始终维持$NBIS拥有包括$IREN到$CIFR在内的最高非对称回报，因为现有的超大规模云厂商协议、企业客户（Shopify, Accenture）、政府客户、1GW容量、来自全栈的高毛利率等。 这并不是说来自$WULF的Fluidstack + Google协议以及其他容量方面没有高上行空间。 Nebius的下行风险最低。而且它真的、真的有高上行空间。 $TSM ______________ 它是AI交易的中心。 他们已经指引利润率增加——这是天文数字般的。 营收：331亿美元 vs. 315亿美元预期。 每股收益：2.92美元 vs. 2.59美元预期。 指引：322-334亿美元 vs. 320亿美元预期。 他们超收了营收指引，利润率增加，他们印钱的速度真是天文数字。 财报前交易在305-310美元，现在回到300美元。 这是一家万亿+美元的公司，同比增长30%+且利润率提升——到底怎么回事。 我之前在$GOOGL 145美元和$HOOD 20美元时说过同样的话。他们印钱。 没必要辩论$ALAB vs $CRDO，$IREN vs $NBIS，$AMD vs $NVDA。 $TSM是整个AI建设周期的中心，所以这只是等待游戏。 _ 就是它$MINT。 享受歌曲的预告，有点炸。🎶
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s only Four stocks: 🍬 MINT That have ABSURDLY HIGH, asymmetrical return. Meaning Low Capital Risk. High Upside Return. This is only for Nov + Dec 2025. Here it is... MINT An explanation of why to full port MINT for end of year 2025: M = $META I = $IBIT N = $NBIS T = $TSM With these four holy growth companies in your portfolio, you can make your breath smell better so you can pull Sydney Sweeney: Mag7. Crypto. AI Data Center. Semiconductor. $META - Meta ___________ Stupid sell-off. Revenue Beat. EPS Beat. Strong guidance. It looks extremely bad on paper when you look at Revenue $51.24B (+26.25% Y/Y), Net income $2.71B (-82.73% Y/Y). 🟢 Revenue: $51.24B vs. est. $49.41B Without one-off tax → 🟢 EPS: $7.25 vs. est. $6.67 With one-off tax → 🔴 EPS: $1.05 vs. est. $6.67 My guess was the initial sell-off was algorithmically driven, then caused by mechanical flows. Many high-frequency trading (HFT) and news-parsing systems react to headline EPS numbers pulled directly from data feeds (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.). If the reported GAAP EPS ($1.05) is printed alongside a consensus of $6.67, the system flags it as a massive miss. Obviously this is speculative, but many models aren't programmed to normalize for one-time tax charges (which is new) and won’t know to look at adjusted EPS ($7.25), which actually beat. Now news are claiming the sell-off was due to AI capex surprise. If we go with this, -15%+ on “AI capex spending increasing” is just pure narratives and means absolutely jack since $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $TSLA, and every single Mag7 is increasing on capex. $META doing the same and selling off doesn’t make sense, unless people believe it’s just going into a black hole with no ROI (which markets disagree since AI is basically running $SPY). Extremely strong buy on recovery once there’s time over the weekend for people to digest what actually happened. Misreads + stupid narratives can cause short-term overreactions (1–2 sessions), often reversed. $IBIT - Bitcoin ___________ It’s Bitcoin.And sitting at $110k. Bitcoin is here to stay with US government support, and with all the ongoing currency inflation + flow of money going to newer generation, there’s no better hedge against inflation than BTC. Polymarket still prices Bitcoin 40% to $130k in 2 months’ time, even if it moves up a few percent you can have upside on CCs and upside on the underlying asset. $NBIS - Nebius ___________ Core business valuation: $31–36.5B Sum-of-parts (cash, assets, portfolio): ~$10.6B (slashed 40% = ~$6.3B) Base case valuation: ~$39B → high upside even with zero growth Core business on track for ~$5B ARR (FY26–27), 60–70% gross margins, and 30% EBITDA target. Hitting $8–12B ARR (via one more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion) could justify ~$100B valuation. No toxic debt, high GPU utilization, full-stack architecture → higher operating leverage. You can look at the bullet point comparison that I quoted so you can make your own judgement on $NBIS vs $IREN for example. However, I’ll always maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return over anything including $IREN to $CIFR due to existing hyperscaler deals, enterprise clients (Shopify, Accenture), Government Clients, 1GW capacity, high gross margins from full-stack, and many others. That’s not saying there’s not high upside from $WULF from Fluidstack + Google deals, and others from capacity. The downside risk on Nebius is the lowest. And it has really, really high upside. $TSM ______________ It’s the CENTER. OF. THE. AI. TRADE. They’ve already guided INCREASING MARGINS - which is astronomical. Revenue: $33.1B vs. $31.5B est. Earnings per Share: $2.92 vs. $2.59 est. Guidance: $32.2B – $33.4B vs. $32.0B est. They’ve beat revenue guidance, increasing margins, and it’s just astronomical how much money they’re printing. It was trading at $305–310 pre-earnings, now back at $300. It’s a $1T+ company that grew 30%+ Y/Y with their margins — what the actual. I said this about the money printer $GOOGL back at $145 and $HOOD back at $20. They print money. There's no need to debate $ALAB vs $CRDO, $IREN vs $NBIS, $AMD vs $NVDA. $TSM the center of the whole AI buildout, so it’s just a waiting game. _ There is it $MINT. Enjoy a teaser of the song, kinda a banger. 🎶
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分析超大规模云服务商自建ASIC对NBIS等公司的长期下行风险及合约保护机制。
是的，长期来看，超大规模云服务商自建ASIC和产能，且在合约容量结束后不再使用Neoclouds，这是$NBIS等公司的下行风险。我在最初的投资逻辑中提到，$CRWV、$NBIS几乎充当$NVDA的“云业务部门”，有助于抵御来自超大规模云服务商的利润率压缩并实现业务多元化。这就是为什么超大规模云服务商将收入导向这些小型公司。但总体而言，如果你的合约条款是10年或15年，你会拥有更多保护，但收入增长幅度较小（例如$NBIS与$MSFT的交易，收入在1-2年内从约11亿美元ARR增长至38亿美元以上ARR）。话虽如此，那是4-5年后的事，目前推测为时过早。通常你会根据新信息的出现，按月进行重估或审视风险与回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah longer term that's the downside risk for $NBIS and others in terms of hyperscalers building out ASICs and capacity and not using Neoclouds after contracted capacity ends. I said in my original thesis that $CRWV, $NBIS and almost serve as $NVDA's cloud arm, and helps defend against margin compression from hyperscalers and diversify their business. That's why hyperscalers funnel revenue down to these small guys. But generally, you have more protection if your contract terms are 10Y or 15Y but less revenue ramp. (eg. with $NBIS $MSFT deal, revenue ramps to $3.8B+ ARR in 1-2 years on top of their ~1.1B ARR) That being said, that's 4-5 years from now, it's too far forward to speculate as of now. Usually you do things like re-rate or examine risk vs. reward month-by-month whenever new information comes out.
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TSM凭借AI基建垄断地位可随意提价，无视下游竞争。
$TSM 可以随时提价以获得更高利润率（他们预测增长 3%），而 $NVDA 无论如何都将被迫使用其服务。此外，盈利预测如预期般大幅超预期，整个 AI 建设都建立在 $TSM 之上，它并不关心 $AMD 与 $NVDA 谁胜谁负。纯粹的垄断。
原推 ↗英文原文
$TSM can raise their prices anytime for higher margins (which they projected 3% increase) and $NVDA will be forced to use them anyway. Also earning projections were a blowout as expected, whole AI buildout is on top of TSM, it doesn’t care about who wins like $AMD vs $NVDA. Pure monopoly.
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博主分享持仓相似性并询问对方看好NBIS的理由
@pepemoonboy 哈哈，自从我前几天加仓 $META 后，我们的多头持仓现在很相似。我只是在 $TSM 上押注更重，而不是 $NVDA。是什么让你确信 $NBIS？
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy lol we have similar longs now that I added $META the other day. I just went harder on $TSM instead of $NVDA. What convinced you on $NBIS?
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AI矿工股将分化，新云厂商言论显著影响市场定价。
这几乎适用于所有矿工，而不仅仅是 $IREN 和 $CIFR 这两只股票。话虽如此，我们很可能会看到资金向表现优异的个股（如 $WULF 或 $NBIS）集中，而不是所有股票同涨同跌。这就像当 $NVDA CEO 发表关于量子计算的评论后，所有量子概念股下跌了 45%。来自领先的新云厂商（Neoclouds）关于利润率与裸金属（bare metal）等话题的评论，确实会对市场如何定价产生实质性影响。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is almost every single miner across the board, not just two stocks $IREN and $CIFR. That being said it’s likely we’ll see people consolidate into individual performers that do well (eg. $WULF or $NBIS) rather than everything go up and down together. Also it’s like when $NVDA CEO made a comment about quantum and all quantum stocks went down 45%. Commentary about stuff like margins vs. bare metal do have material impacts on how markets price things in when it comes from the leading Neoclouds
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看好全栈新云$NBIS利润率优势，减持矿工股。
市场开始定价： 像 $NBIS 这样的 AWS 式全栈新云（Neocloud）与 $CIFR、$BITF、$CLSK 等矿工之间的分化。 这就是我卖出 $IREN、$WULF 等并集中持仓 Nebius 的原因。 为什么？ 💹 利润率 > ⚡️ 产能。 就在今天： Nebius 的 CTO 表示： “市场上几乎没有真正的‘新云’。所谓的新云不过是一堆裸金属服务器，上面堆砌了大量第三方软件。” 耸人听闻？完全不是——如果你认真对待“云”这个概念，而不仅仅是堆砌硬件盒子。 Danila 解释了裸金属运营商很快就会发现 Nebius 已经在大规模层面解决的那些挑战。 这正是我指出 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称上行潜力的原因，因为矿工在规模化时可能会在利润率上挣扎。 我们还看到 Nebius 联合创始人 Roman Chernin 在《福布斯》的文章中总结，AI 经济需要一种新的、全栈的、AI 原生基础设施，而不是拼凑起来的系统： “你可以从一个供应商购买机架，将它们连接起来……但从长远来看，经济性、灵活性和速度取决于你是否控制自己的全栈。” “如果你控制全栈，你就控制产品、性能和经济效益。” _ 这并不意味着像 $WYFI、$APLD、$WULF 等其他高性能计算（HPC）公司没有增长空间，新云板块才刚刚开始上涨（尤其是当我们看到 $META 或 $AMZN 的财报时）。 然而，在投机阶段，我们已经为矿工的产能建设定价——大多数已经上涨了 50–200%+。 但谈到执行层面，那些控制全栈的人将在利润率上获胜。 我们看到 $CRWV 亲自体会到了这一点，花费数十亿美元进行软件收购，利用率仍低于 $NBIS（根据白皮书）。 我们也看到一家市值 8000 亿美元的超大规模云厂商（Oracle）未能建立其全栈，毛利率仅为 14%。 如果 Oracle 都无法完全整合其软件，CoreWeave 仍在花费数年时间尝试这样做，小型矿工如何转型？ “仅 Type-1”运营商的论点将艰难地发现规模化时的利润率压缩是什么样子的。 正如《福布斯》文章总结： “归根结底，如果你只是连接盒子或在无法控制的基础设施上构建服务，你在规模和效率的游戏里将受到限制。” $NBIS 今天就已经拥有全栈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are starting to price in: A divergence between AWS-style full-stack Neoclouds like $NBIS and miners such as $CIFR, $BITF, $CLSK, and others. This is the reason I sold off $IREN $WULF and others, and consolidated into Nebius. Why? 💹 Margins > ⚡️Capacity. Just today: The CTO of Nebius stated: “Almost no Neocloud in the market is actually a cloud. As in a bunch of baremetal with a ton of third-party software slapped on top.” Provocative? Absolutely not — if you take the term “cloud” seriously, not just as slapping on a bunch of hardware boxes. Danila explained how baremetal operators will soon discover the challenges Nebius has already solved at scale. And that’s exactly why I stated $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical upside, since miners may struggle with margins at scale. We’ve also seen a Forbes article by Nebius Co-Founder Roman Chernin, summarize how the AI economy requires a new, full-stack, AI-native infrastructure, not the stitched-together systems: “You can buy racks from one supplier, cable them together... but in the long term, economics, flexibility and speed depend on you controlling your own stack.” “If you control the stack, you control the product, the performance, and the economics.” _ This doesn’t mean there’s no room for other HPC companies like $WYFI, $APLD, $WULF, and others to grow, and the Neocloud segment is just beginning its run-up (especially when we look at $META or $AMZN earnings). However, during the speculation phase, we’ve already priced in capacity buildout with miners - most are already up 50–200%+. But when it comes to execution, those who control the full stack will win on margins. We’ve seen $CRWV figure that out firsthand, spending billions on software acquisitions and still maintaining lower utilization than $NBIS (as per the whitepaper). We’ve also seen how an $800B hyperscaler (Oracle) failed to build out its stack, running at 14% gross margins. If Oracle couldn’t fully integrate its software, and CoreWeave is still spending years trying to do so, how will small miners pivot? Arguments from “Type-1 only” operators will find out the hard way what margin compression at scale looks like. As the Forbes article concludes: “At the end of the day, if you’re just cabling the boxes or building service on top of infrastructure you don’t control, you’re limited in the game of scale and efficiency.” $NBIS already has that full stack today.
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宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
原推 ↗英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
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作者通过分部估值法论证 $NBIS 当前被低估，预计一年内市值可达 1000 亿美元。
为什么我认为 $NBIS 在一年内可以轻松达到约 400 美元/股或 1000 亿美元+市值： 目前，Nebius 的估值为 240 亿美元（增至 1000 亿美元需增长 316%+）。 假设 2026-2027 年零增长： 核心业务：310 亿–365 亿美元 分部估值求和(Sum of Parts)：71 亿美元（打 6 折） 中值估值 = 390 亿美元估值（+62.5%） 这尚未计入任何增长，而增长可能将其推升至 1000 亿美元。 今天，投资者实际上仅为核心业务支付了 130 亿美元，而其正以 1000% 的同比增长率增长——从季度营收 1 亿美元增至 13 亿美元，毛利率为 60-70%。 市场通常是前瞻性的，但对于 Nebius，它只盯着脚下。这些只是非正式的想法和简短分析。 业务估值： __________________ 当前现金等价物（扣除 42 亿美元后）~ 58.8 亿美元 投资组合公司：~ 26.8 亿美元 Clickhouse（28%，估值 63.5 亿美元），Avride（17%，估值 ~31 亿美元），Toloka（51%，估值 ~7.2 亿美元）- Avride/Toloka 为投机性估算。也未考虑 Clickhouse 更新的估值（可能已增长）。 实物资产：~ 20 亿美元中值 GPU（~7.5-10 亿美元），服务器，网络（4-6 亿美元），土地/建筑（3-5 亿美元），电力/冷却（2-3 亿美元）。总实物资产介于 16.5-24 亿美元之间。 保守的分部估值求和：~ 105.8 亿美元（截至今天，未考虑投资组合公司升值）。Nebius 已通过票据转换消除了大部分债务。 通常拥有投资组合的公司不会以 1:1 的净资产值(NAV)交易，因此我在计算时砍掉了 105.8 亿美元的 40%，考虑到这主要是现金，这是保守的。 _ 无增长基准情景 现在进入核心业务： FY 2026-2027 预估：2025 财年预计 11 亿美元 + 来自 $MSFT 的 38 亿美元（合同/5）（显然可能存在收入滞后，因此平均分布在 2026-2027 年）。 如果 Nebius 完全停止基于 2025 年预测的增长，他们在 2026/2027 年的最低年化经常性收入(ARR) 将达到 49.8 亿美元。 毛利率目前约为 71.2%（上一季度），但可能在 60-70% 之间 + 管理层目标 30% 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 以下是核心业务在增长完全停止时的计算： 企业价值/收入(EV/Revenue) 6–8 倍：312 亿 | 416 亿美元 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润(EV/EBITDA) 15–25 倍：234 亿 | 390 亿美元 前瞻性的基准/悲观情景企业价值 = 310–420 亿美元（基于收入）或 230–390 亿美元（基于 EBITDA） （核心业务）+ 分部估值求和 = 335.8 亿美元中值无增长情景 + ~105.8 * 0.6 = ~390 亿美元。 接下来我们将考虑如果 Nebius 增长的情况。 __________________ 有增长情景： 以下是仅基于核心业务如何达到 1000 亿美元。 $NBIS 拥有约 50 亿美元已确认 ARR。 Nebius 唯一需要的是 ARR 增长至 80-120 亿美元： 再签 1 个超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易 + SMB 扩张。 只要达成 GCP 或 Meta 交易，我们就能达到该目标。（这只是高层面的，不深入 GPU 折旧争论、电力增加、执行风险等）。我对一年内达成另一个超大规模云厂商交易持乐观态度，因为更多 Mag7 最近签署了交易（例如 Meta 与 $CRWV 的 140 亿美元交易）。 此外，其他一切保持不变：毛利率 ≥60–70% 和 EBITDA 目标：~30%。好消息是，通过白皮书，我们也可能看到 Nebius 的利润率扩张。 NBIS 在昨天的白皮书中声称接近 100% 的 GPU 利用率，这将证明比 $CRWV 或任何矿工转型(+ NBIS 没有有毒利息债务，且客户群更多元化)更高的利润率和每 GPU 收入是合理的。 他们的软件编排本身就是一个护城河，并非所有新云(neoclouds)或比特币矿工转型都能维持同样的高毛利率。 乐意争论为什么全栈、利润率、与 SMB 的客户多元化很重要（如果你想比较 $IREN 的 GW 容量或其他人）-> 只需看看 $ORCL 在建设上损失 1 亿美元+。 无论如何，由于运营支出(opex)成本 + 利润率 + 全栈 + 客户群，我对 $NBIS 的看法优于其他任何新云。（如果有任何遗漏或计算错误，请告诉我，也欢迎辩论） 但除此之外，当前 230 亿美元市值是一场清仓大甩卖，没有计入增长，而它今天本应估值 390 亿美元。然后还有 1 个超大规模云厂商交易带来的上行空间，一年内在 1000 亿美元市值下获得 4 倍回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year: Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B). If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027: Core Business: $31B–$36.5B Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed) Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%) This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B. Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins. Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground. These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup. Business Valuation: __________________ Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew). Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion. Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash. _ BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH Now going into the core business: FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway). If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027. Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA. These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely: EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA) (Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B. And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows. __________________ CASE WITH GROWTH: Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business. $NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed. Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B: 1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion. All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV). Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius. NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base). Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins. Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout. Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate) But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .
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Neoclouds凭借软件编排优势解决GPU瓶颈，构建高毛利护城河。
好问题！超大规模云厂商已签署确切的利用率+支出协议，例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易，微软将在5年内支出170-200亿美元。这并非完全是在承担高资本支出(capex)的风险，因为他们是在为产能付费以解决瓶颈。他们仍在支出数百亿美元，部分原因是无法自建，部分原因是前期高资本支出存在更大风险。我在核心论点中写道，Neoclouds（新云）+ 有意将GPU分配给这些Neoclouds是 $NVDA 维持主导地位、实现多元化并避免未来利润率压缩的方式。我们也看到超大规模云厂商在自建方面遇到困难（如 $ORCL 亏损1亿美元），但这恰恰表明Neoclouds在软件编排处理GPU利用率以及通过其建设方式维持高毛利率方面拥有巨大护城河。$NBIS、$WLAC 等毛利率已达70%左右，现在只是执行问题。这不仅是芯片稀缺，这些小型公司+转型HPC的比特币矿工（如 $IREN）实际上拥有竞争优势，即护城河。
原推 ↗英文原文
Great question! Hyperscalers signed confirmed utilization + spend, for example with $NBIS deal with $MSFT, Microsoft is spending 17-20B over 5 years. It's not exactly risking high-capex, since they're spending to pay for capacity since there's a bottleneck. They're still spending tens of billions of dollars, partly because they can't do it themselves and partly because there's a larger risk in high capex upfront. I wrote in my central thesis that Neoclouds + intentional GPU allocation to these Neoclouds were $NVDA's way of maintaining dominance, diversification, and not risking margin compression down the road. We've also seen hyperscalers have trouble with buildout on their own, (eg. $ORCL losing $100m), but this just goes to show that there is a huge moat with Neoclouds in terms of software orchestration handling GPU utilization and maintaining high gross margins with how they do their buildout. $NBIS, $WLAC, and others already had 70% or so gross margins and it's just execution now. It's not just scarcity in chips, there's actually a competitive advantage that these little guys + Bitcoin miners turned HPC ( $IREN), that is the moat.
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
原推 ↗英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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博主基于宏观利好更新美股AI/半导体/能源等板块的强烈买入、买入及持有名单。
大豆/植物油崩盘，个人思考与解释： 强烈买入 $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC （+ 同上次税务收割股） $AMZN $SMCI _ 买入 $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH 持有 $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS （已达推文股票代码上限，其余同上次帖子，Quantum或Oklo仍建议卖出） _ 强烈买入 ALAB - 数据中心建设的重要组成部分，拥有类似英伟达(NVDA)的利润率，客户包括Mag7。已有来自博通(AVGO)的竞争者，真的不认为Arista会构成竞争威胁。 CRDO - 与ALAB同样的抛售，之前觉得两者都略有高估，但现在回到修正区间，适合补仓。 NBIS - $400目标价牛市情景。宏观顺风来自政府重新开放+10月底降息预期进入财报季，短期前景看好。利好众多（如Meta x CRWV，因此有更多Mag7客户的潜力），分部表现良好，例如Clickhouse，季度收入从$1亿扩展到$15亿+非常惊人。合同已锁定，只是公司执行的问题。 WLAC - 之前在$13时写过投资逻辑。即使在$14.5也很强，因为它可以轻松重估100%+。 LTC - 受杠杆交易者和政府停摆影响。预计停摆将持续一段时间，主要买入理由是ETF获批。但无论如何，低于$100都是很好的买入点，因为最终会获批（~95%概率）。 TSM - 天哪。如果是美国公司这将是$3万亿市值的公司，利润率惊人，对于其规模而言增长率惊人。每篇关于OpenAI X (**Sydney Sweeney合作)或AMD建设/NVDA建设的帖子中，TSM都是核心，即使以历史高点买入，也轻松成为$2万亿+公司（目前约$1.5万亿）。 BTC - $112K是好的入场点。黄金不断创历史新高，基本面没什么变化，只是最近大量清算。 （+ 同上次税务收割股） AMZN - 我真不知道为什么年初至今还在跌。我觉得亚马逊不需要太多解释，但仍在增长（例如AWS积压订单巨大，仍增长24%，当然不如ORCL、GCP等），但考虑到年底季节性和2月前的上涨，现在可能是抄底的最佳时机。AMZN今天触及$213-215是补仓的好机会，因为短期波段交易通常浮动在$218-$227，但长期我预计它会追赶其他Mag7。 SMCI - 被低估。市场关注短期表现，Charles引用的55%+同比前瞻收入增长无人相信+未实现的积压订单。但现在随着所有数据中心建设，这开始说得通了。因此应在接下来两次财报中重估。 _ 买入 AMD - OpenAI x AMD，Oracle使用AMD建设，这么多交易，如果它确实是$NVDA的强劲竞争对手，将重估为潜在$1万亿+公司。我不认为赢家通吃，可以看到$NVDA $4.5万亿+市值和$AMD $3500亿市值，所以我们可以看到大幅拉升（OpenAI通常是前沿模型领导者，如果Sam说他们可以使用AMD芯片+Elon说它对中小模型有益，可能意味着积极信号） FLNC - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 SEI - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 BZAI - 别人做过这家公司的深度研究，仅因板块和向边缘计算转移（例如机器人将很热）。由于低市值和类似公司的上涨可能表现良好。 NKLR - 像$OKLO这样的核能股已经起飞，这只是跟随梯队。 IREN - 无需介绍，巨大的GW算力，只是还没有宣布Mag7交易，但随时可能到来 -> 强劲重估。不是强烈买入的唯一原因是因为不完全确信矿工能像CRWV那样转型并保持高利润率（例如$ORCL打击文章），但我们会看到。 WULF - GOOGL积压订单，另外$3.6+亿左右的资金帮助很大。 CIFR - X上有很多关于未来产能和强劲重估的信息。一直喜欢这家公司，因为它是NBIS-lite。你可以买任何Neocloud，因为板块潜力巨大，Mag7将收入注入。 CRWV - 因为债务不像其他人那样喜欢，但由于植物油修正，$134（低于META交易宣布时）是更好的买入点 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 WYFI - Neocloud类别相同 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 GLXY - Neocloud类别相同，有助于其建设 RBRK - 做过深度研究，中期网络安全板块很好的买入，他们只需缩减营销，然后看起来有更多自由现金流，因为他们将大部分运营支出花在营销上。 GRAB - 基本面很好，-6.56%修正再次买入 SEA - 东南亚的AMZN，很多人使用。仅因客户群+变现潜力就买入。基本面$50亿+收入38% Y/Y增长也很好。 META - 我真的很不喜欢他们在AI上的昂贵资本支出，因为他们并没有像ChatGPT那样推出前沿模型，谁知道Zuck在做什么。但除此之外，一个月下跌7.3%，回到$700支撑位，可能在这里买入以追赶是个好主意。 TGT - 下个月股息是好的催化剂。 SNAP - Jenners回来了（有助于人气），他们将前记忆运营支出转为收入，这可能会导致明年巨大的重估。只是受税务收割影响，否则现在会是强烈买入。通常税务收割事件在12月完成。 MU - 现在中国恐惧稍微减弱，MU因为建设中的内存使用而成为更强的买入。 RKLB - 中子，金色穹顶合同，很多催化剂 FLY - 中等提升 UNH - 不受大豆影响的医疗保健股，但有修正。机构发布持仓后可能会上涨（例如Warren可能买了更多） 随机想法 基本上任何不是Oklo的成长/风险股都很好，因为我们有 -> 10月底降息 -> 政府重新开放（可能在10月底或11月初） 进入 -> 12月降息。 -> 中期选举（对股票看涨） 通常市场崩盘发生在紧缩而非宽松时。你的愚蠢量子泡沫可能会再持续3-12个月。如果你做空，可能等到明年2月。 无论如何，这是风险偏好的好时机，特别是搭乘Neoclouds -> 相关板块（例如能源）-> 相关公司（例如smci, tsm等）的趋势。 我半开玩笑地说大豆，因为它可能签署了升级紧张局势，但我可能会看到明年前的上涨。另外我可以写很多关于每一个的内容，但这很耗时，但我会不时发布关于随机股票如$RBRK的投资逻辑帖子。 太空/机器人/能源/量子/AI/半导体/关键垂直领域是目前最顶级的，不要对抗动量。我可以认为某些东西被高估了（例如一些关键材料，因为与Neoclouds相比仍然具有投机性，后者基于Mag7的执行有保证的收入），但我不会在降息时做空它。 只是个人想法，非财务建议
原推 ↗英文原文
The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations: Strong Buy $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) $AMZN $SMCI _ Buy $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH Hold $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS (Hit the ticker maximum but everything else from last post, still sell on Quantum or Oklo) _ Strong Buys ALAB - Huge part of datacenter buildout, NVDA like margins, Mag7 customers. Already had competitors from AVGO, really don't think Arista would be a competitive threat. CRDO - Same sell-off as ALAB, thought they were both kind of overvalued before, but now they're back in correction territory so good to stock up. NBIS - $400 PT bull case. We have macro tailwind from government re-opening + rate cut EOM october into earnings, so short term looks promising. Lot of things going for it (eg. meta x crwv, so there's potential for more mag7 clients), sum of parts doing well, eg. clickhouse, and scaling rev from $100m to $1.5B+ a quarter is insane. there's already contracts locked in its just a matter of company execution. WLAC - Wrote a thesis about this earlier at $13. Even at $14.5 strong because it can re-rate 100%+ easily. LTC - Affected by leverage traders and government shutdown. The shutdown is predicted to last awhile and the main reason to buy was the ETF getting approved. But a great buy sub <$100 anyway, because it will get approved in due time (~95% chance). TSM - Holy crap. This would be a $3T company if this were a US company, insane profit margins, insane growth rate for their size. And every post you see about OpenAi X (**sydney sweeney partnership) or AMD buildout/NVDA buildout. TSM is the center of it all and would easily be a $2T+ company (from here at ~$1.5T), even if buying at ATHs. BTC - $112K good entry point. Goldt keeps hitting ATH, nothing really changed fundamentally, just lot of liquidations recently (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) AMZN - I really don't know how it's still down YTD. I don't think Amazon needs much explaining but still growing (eg. AWS backlog massive, still going like 24% but not as much as ORCL, GCP and others obviously), but with EOY seasonality and runup to Feb, now is probably the best chance to catch the bottom. AMZN hitting $213-215 today was a good chance to stock up since it usually floats between $218-$227 if you're short term swing trading but long term I'd expect it to catchup to other mag7. SMCI - Underrated. Markets were looking short term performance, and Charles was quoting like 55%+ Y/Y forward revenue growth which nobody believed + backlog that didnt get realized yet. But now with all the data center buildouts, now it's kinda making sense. So should re-rate in the next two earnings. _ Buy AMD - So many deals from OpenAI x AMD, oracle building out with AMD, this is going to re-rate to a potential $1T+ company if it's actually a strong competitive to $NVDA. I don't think it's winner takes all and you can see a $4.5T+ market cap size with NVDA and some $350B marketcap size with AMD, so we can see a large ramp up (OpenAI is usually the leader in frontier models and if Sam says they can use AMD chips + elon said its' good for small-medium weight models, prboably means something positive) FLNC - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. SEI - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. BZAI - Someone else did a DD on this company, just cause of sector and shift to edge compute (eg. Robotics goign to be hot). Because of low MC and runup of similar companies could turn out well. NKLR - Nuclear stocks like $OKLO have been taking off, this is just follow the lader. IREN - Needs no introduction, huge GW compute capacity just no announced mag7 deals yet but could come anytime -> strong re-rate. Only reason not a strong buy is because not fully convinced miners can pivot like CRWV and maintain great margins (eg. $ORCL hit piece) but we'll see. WULF - GOOGL backlog, another $3.6+ or so in funding helps a lot. CIFR - Lot of info on X about future capacity and strong re-rating. Always liked this company because it was NBIS-lite. You can probably buy any Neocloud and it will go up because the sector is incredibly high potential with Mag7 funneling revenue. CRWV - Didn't like this as much as others because of debt but because of the seed oil correction much better buy point at $134 (below when META deal was announced) BITF - Same in Neocloud category WYFI - Same in Neocloud category BITF - Same in Neocloud category GLXY - Same in Neocloud category, helps with their buildout RBRK - Did a DD on this, great buy for cybersecurity sector in mid term, they just need to scale back marketing and then it looks like they have a lot more FCF because they're spending most OPEX on marketing. GRAB - Great fundamentally, -6.56% correction good to buy again SEA - AMZN in SEA, tons of people use them. Just a buy just because of costumer base + monetization potenetial. Fundamentally growing $5B+ rev 38% Y/Y is also great. META - I really don't like all their expensive capex on AI since they're not really putting out fronteir models like ChatGPT with it, who knows what Zuck is doing. But that aside, down 7.3% over the month, going to $700 support, probably a good buy around here to play catchup. TGT - Dividend next month good catalyst. SNAP - The Jenners are coming back (helps with popularity), they're shifting former memory opex to revenue, and this will probably cause a HUGE rerating next year. Just suffers from tax harvesting otherwise would be a strong buy rn. Usually tax harvesting events are kinda done in December. MU - Now that China fears are kinda less intense, MU is a lot stronger buy just cause of memory use on buildout. RKLB - Neutron, golden dome contracts, lot of cataylsts FLY - Medium lift UNH - Healthcare stock not affected by soybeans but had a correction. Would likely go up one instituions post their ports (eg. warren likely bought more) Random thoughts Basically any growth/risk stock that's not named Oklo is great because we have -> Rate Cut end of month October -> Government re-opening sometime (likely around end of Oct or early Nov) Into -> Rate Cut December. -> Midterms (Bullish for stocks) Usually market crashes happen when there's tightening not easing. And your stupid quantum bubbles would likely continue for another 3-12 months afterward. If you're short, then probably wait till next Feb. Anyway, this is a great time for risk-on, and specially riding trends with neoclouds -> affiliated sectors (eg. energy) -> affiliated companies (eg. smci, tsm, etc). I half joke-about soybeans because it likely signed escalating tensions, but I'd probably see a run-up into next year. Also I could write up a lot about each one but it's pretty time consuming but I'll put on a thesis post about random ones eg. $RBRK, from time to time. Space/robotics/energy/quantum/ai/semi/critical top verticals right now, don't fight against momentum. I can think something is overvalued (eg. some critical materials bc. it's still spectulative compared to neoclouds that kinda have guaranteed rev based on execution from mag7) but I wouldn't short it into rate cuts. Just personal thoughts, NFA
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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博主首次公开高确信度持仓列表，详解6只核心多头及1只百倍潜力股的建仓逻辑。
这是我首次发布我的高确信度持仓列表。 这是我的6只最高确信度多头持仓，以及1只新的1000%潜力“登月”标的🚀 按首次买入时间及我建立确信度的时机/原因排序。 5年持仓： $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2年持仓： $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000%登月标的（确信度不如其他，但我认为它最有希望实现10倍增长） $WLAC ($13 | $13) 以下是观点变化的原因： 1. $RKLB -> 自特朗普宣布成立太空军以来，我就知道太空行业正在快速增长。当时我想投资SpaceX，但没有替代选择。 所以当$RKLB在Reddit上开始流行时，我买了它。他们在小型运载火箭方面有很高的成功率，但除此之外没什么特别的。 几个月后股价达到$28左右时，他们开始开发中型有效载荷，SpaceX以3500亿美元估值完成了一轮大额融资，我开始看到RocketLab在5年或10年（当时正在开发Neutron）内市值增长的潜力，并由此建立了确信度。 2. $TSM -> 我一直知道台积电(TSMC)对半导体至关重要，但因台湾地缘政治风险而未建立大仓位。但在~$245时，美国开始了关乎国家安全的最大规模AI基础设施建设，$NVDA等公司创下历史新高。 这一切的核心是$TSM。我认为如果它是美国公司，估值将超过3万亿美元。 3. $BTC -> 我一直喜欢比特币，大学时朋友向我介绍。我曾用它支付数字商品，因为当时的PayPal不支持匿名支付，我也不喜欢向商家透露身份。 我一直喜欢比特币作为价值存储/支付手段，但当美国政府+美联储最终支持比特币作为黄金的替代品时，它变成了高确信度持仓。 我有一篇关于美国政府为何对比特币+稳定币有战略利益的长篇论文，改天再发。 4. $HOOD -> 金融基础设施已破碎。业内人尽皆知。 我喜欢Robinhood，因为我认识的散户用户都在用。作为一家金融科技公司的运营者，他们开发产品的速度（甚至与初创公司相比）令人惊叹。 从信用卡产品到银行服务，再到投资，他们确实让一切变得更好，然后直接向其庞大的用户群发布产品。 当然，与半导体/超大市值公司相比，金融科技公司的增长有上限，但如果其银行服务成功并持续创新，未来可能成为一家6000亿美元+的公司。 _ 1. $NBIS - 起初我承认自己在不看基本面情况下进行了波段交易。一切在Mag7开始与所有Neoclouds签约，特别是微软与Nebius签署170亿-190亿美元合同时发生了改变，这完全赋予了它新的重估逻辑。我开始研究基本面和他们拥有的资产，对其增长率感到震惊。 我相信它在1-2年内轻松达到$400（1000亿+市值）。 2. $ALAB - 许多Mag7公司都在Stargate + AI数据中心建设中使用它们。当然，其营收数字相对于当前市值很小，但其利润率像$NVDA一样，且同比增长100%+，这很惊人。谁知道它们能增长多高。 _ 1. $WLAC - 现在是最有趣的一个，如果我对任何小盘股/仙股有强确信度，那就是这个。Boost已经与Fluidstack合作（后者已为$GOOGL合同构建了$CIFR和$WULF，并将它们的估值提升至40-70亿）。 而在目前6亿美元IPO下，这很容易增长到[某公司]的市值。（之前已发过关于投机基本面的小论文）。因此我认为这是最可能实现1000%增长的标的。 _ 我也提到过$FLY作为潜在1000%标的，或$AMD因OpenAI 1000亿+远期收入而成为绝佳买入，但这与单纯相信公司/资产的高确信度略有不同。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list. These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀 Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction. 5 Years: $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2 Years: $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x) $WLAC ($13 | $13) Here's what changed: 1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative. So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special. Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it. 2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk. But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs. In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+. 3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants. I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction. I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day. 4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it. I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing. From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase. Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation. _ 1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning. Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating. I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate. I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years. 2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing. Who knows how high they'll grow. _ 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B). And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything. _ I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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分析$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的潜力，认为其风险回报优于$RKLB。
自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资论点，现在分享如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的竞争对手是 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，较当前（44 亿美元市值）增长 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿美元的市值估算基于 $RKLB 的估值倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的订单积压）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下，毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列火箭的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的风险。看空者指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险... 他们应该问的问题是：诺斯罗普 (Northrop) 和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普，与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的发射公司之间的联合开发 (Co-development)。 诺斯罗普此前曾拥有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前运行正常，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚在 2026-2027 年可由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载火箭），这已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的订单积压以及美国“金穹”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，购买 Firefly 的风险回报比是合理的，前提是公司在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大的护城河，成为下一个 SpaceX。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，但我认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普合作存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的机会高于正常水平。） 显然，Rocket Lab 实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的成功概率更高，但这已经反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，相比之下 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿美元。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。另外，我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人 (Rocketman) 本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90% 以上的机会实现可重复使用中型运载火箭飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，只是因为太空 TAM（总可寻址市场）因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
原推 ↗英文原文
People have been asking for my $FLY thesis since my Reddit post, so here it is: Firefly is a rocket company like $RKLB, and is developing a reusable medium-lift rocket. The only one that exists is SpaceX. They target 2026-2027, and if they succeed, the company would re-rate to a 30-70B market cap, 1000-2000% from here (4.4B MC) More details: The 30-70B marketcap estimate is priced off $RKLB multiples, and only on medium-lift working. (I'm ignoring other business segments and current $1B+ revenue backlog). In a year with medium-lift: ~$0.9–1.3B revenue, with 30–40% gross margins at workable cadence (8–12 flights). Falcon-class pricing support this. So now the only question is, can FLY make it work? After Fly's individual company latest launch failure, the stock dropped 50% and the market is already pricing in the feature of failure. The bears are pointing to Alpha's failures for execution risk. HOWEVER, they're pricing the risk in completely wrong... The question they should be asking is, whether both Northrop + Firefly can make this work? This is a CO-DEVELOPMENT between Northrop, one of America's largest military contractors for Aerospace with some tiny $4B marketcap launch company. Northrop literally had its own medium-lift rocket before but they had to sunset it. Northrop’s prior launcher, Antares 230 worked before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, then the supply chain was cut off. However, Northrop faced an existential problem: it couldn’t build its own first stage anymore. So they went looking for a U.S. partner with ready-made propulsion and structures for the sake of time: Firefly. -> Motivation: Firefly’s Miranda engines offered a plug-and-play replacement to immediately build a medium lift launcher. And now you have a medium lift launcher in 2026-2027 that Firefly monetizes (because Northrop took a stake in the company), just need to make it re-usable, which is the hard part. But Northrop doesn’t just “help.” It structurally lowers risk across every aspect across the board. And Northrop’s system + Firefly’s new-space engines hits a scarce, high-demand moat (U.S. medium-lift with reuse), already validated by TacRS and a $1B+ backlog + US golden dome defense system catalyst. So, risk reward of buying Firefly on the company succeeding on Medium-Lift Launcher and developing a huge moat to be the next SpaceX, is decent. (I also have $RKLB in my portfolio too, I just see the opportunity of succeeding in reusable Medium Lift to be higher than normal because it medium-lift already existed with Northrop). Obviously Rocketlab has a higher probability of success achieving reusable medium lift, but that's already priced into its 32B+ marketcap, compared to a 4.4B Fly marketcap. I just find $FLY to be an interesting 10x moonshot at this valuation in the chance it works in the next year or two. Also I just really like rockets. I also had Grok calculate the odds since XAI is owned by Rocketman himself. _ Output: By end-2027, Rocket Lab has a 90%+ chance of achieving reusable medium-lift flights (likely by mid-2026), driven by their head start, proven execution, and in-house control. Firefly/Northrop reaches 75–80% probability, bolstered by Northrop’s legacy but tempered by Firefly’s newer operational track record. The extra year narrows the gap—Firefly could match or exceed Neutron’s cadence by late 2027 if Antares 330 flies on time and Miranda engines scale. In the event they both get it to work (big if), RKLB could re-rate to $60B marketcap, and $FLY could re-rate to 40B marketcap, just because of TAM of Space rapidly increasing from national security risks and corporate sector buildout, just might need to wait another year.
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若OpenAI用AMD替代英伟达，AMD或重估至万亿美元市值。
@soulbiri1 这是一只仅按份额计算的ETF！ 此外，OpenAI 基本上是所有基础AI模型的领导者。 如果萨姆·阿尔特曼认为他可以使用价值数千亿美元的 $AMD GPU 来替代 $NVDA，那么 AMD 可能会重新估值成为一家万亿美元市值的公司。
原推 ↗英文原文
@soulbiri1 This is a share-only ETF! Also, OpenAI is basically the leader of all foundational AI models. And if Sam Altman thinks he can use hundreds of billions of dollars worth of $AMD GPUs instead of $NVDA, then AMD might re-rate into a trillion dollar company.
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博主感叹某股暴涨，自嘲持仓过少错失良机。
@rocket5010 疯狂的涨势，人们将这家市值4000亿美元的公司视为正在追赶市值4.5万亿美元英伟达($NVDA)的目标。我本应该多买一些，哈哈，我只有1100股。
原推 ↗英文原文
@rocket5010 Crazy run, people are seeing this as a $400B MC company chasing up to a $4.5T $NVDA. I should have bought more lol I only have 1.1k shares.
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AMD被市场重新定价为下一个英伟达。
$AMD 简直疯了，见鬼。市场大概正在将其重新定价为下一个 $NVDA。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AMD is actually insane wtf. Markets are repricing it as the next $NVDA I guess. https://t.co/cuH0dEjd0n
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指出英伟达通过特定结构间接持有AMD股份。
@pepemoonboy 我觉得 $NVDA 通过这种结构间接持有 $AMD 的股份这件事挺有意思的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@pepemoonboy I just find it funny how $NVDA would have an indirect stake in $AMD through this structure.
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分析NBIS、AMZN、SNAP等个股机会，看好AI基建及降息预期。
10月6日周一收盘思考： - $NBIS 是极好的逢低买入机会。早盘上涨5.78%后回落2.38%。从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的所有其他新云(Neoclouds)公司都守住了4%-14%+的涨幅。Nebius可能受期权资金流影响，预计很快会补涨，我维持 $225 的目标价(PT)。 - $AMZN, $META 是两只在未来2-3个月应跑赢大盘并补涨的七巨头(Mag7)成员。尤其是亚马逊。 - $SNAP, $RDDT 是两个不错的反弹标的。Snapchat尤其因为收入变现模式的改变。如果你有耐心持有股票一两年，我预期会有50%+的回报，只是取决于市场何时将其定价。并非每个人都有耐心，且将资金用于 $SNAP 而非新云(Neoclouds)的机会成本可能不划算。 关于Reddit，我一直认为ChatGPT引用是其暴跌29%的借口，所以我已买入。 - $SPRB 吸引了所有人的注意。我预计它将从7500万美元市值继续上涨至1.5亿-2亿美元，但这就像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，通常在重大事件后2-3天就会发生稀释。 - 像 $RKLB 这样的股票，只需持有哈哈。即使它是我最高信用的5年期长线标的，也确实高估了，但此时它可能会像 $PLTR 一样表现。 - $AMD 与 OpenAI 的交易对半导体行业极度利好。我预计 $TSM, $ASML, 能源股和新云(Neoclouds)将从AI基础设施建设中受益。主要的负面因素是 $CRWV，因为其对 $NVDA 的依赖，以及显然的NVDA本身，但新云(Neoclouds)并未锁定单一玩家，且已锁定5-10年以上的合同。 这仅对 $NVDA 的护城河理念造成微小影响，但尚无实质性影响。 我个人认为AMD可能会像 $ORCL 一样在反弹后回调，然后当市场开始计入远期收入时，像 $AVGO 一样表现。 话说回来，我不知道OpenAI从哪弄来这么多钱，承诺给Oracle、AMD等这些十亿或百亿美元的交易，如果它们估值只有5000亿的话哈哈。 - 黄金每天创历史新高，仅仅表明 $BTC 始终是好的买入标的，即使在 $123k，如果它最终成为对抗通胀的对冲工具。其市值约为黄金的1/10。 - $LTC 仍然是很好的买入标的，因为ETF获批。由于政府停摆，人们只是忘记了它尚未发生，但最终应该会获批。 - $VIRT 在 $32.5 是极好的买入，我会在这个区间进行成本平均（抱歉如果你在 $36 买了看涨期权，我的仓位下跌了约35%）。但再次强调，这是对VIX的非对称对冲（VIX隐含波动率很高用于对冲，VIRT被低估~6.3倍远期市盈率，有回购和低隐含波动率），所以即使仓位下跌，你的其他股票应该会上涨以平衡。 - 仍在研究其他受益于基础设施建设的能源股、小盘股如 $EOSE、存储如 $MU 等，这些是粉丝推荐的。我尽量不在自己充分了解前谈论太多。 - 如果你使用杠杆或做多，现在是时候了，直到一月。三次降息，市场可能正在提前交易十月的降息。
原推 ↗英文原文
Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts: - $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT. - $AMZN, $META two Mag7 that should outperform next 2-3 months and play catchup with the rest. Especially Amazon. - $SNAP, $RDDT two good recovery plays. Snapchat especially because of the revenue monetization changes. If you have the patience for shares for a year or two, I'd expect a 50%+ return, just whenever the market wants to price it in. Not everyone has patience and opportunity cost using the funds in $SNAP instead of Neoclouds might not be worth. Reddit I've maintained that the citations from ChatGPT is a BS reason for a 29% sell-off so I bought into it. - $SPRB caught everyone's attention. I do expect it to keep rising to a $150-$200m marketcap from $75m but it's like playing Russian Roulette, usually dilution happens 2-3 days after a major event. - Stuff like $RKLB, just need to hold lol. It's genuinely overvalued even if it's highest conviction 5Y long but at this point it might pull a $PLTR. - $AMD x OpenAI deal heavily bullish for semi industry. I expected $TSM, $ASML, energy stocks and Neoclouds to get a boost from AI infra buildout. Main negative ones were $CRWV, because of $NVDA dependencies and obviously NVDA, but Neoclouds aren't locked into one player, and they already have 5-10+ year contracts locked in. It just puts a tiny dent in the $NVDA moat idea but nothing material yet. I personally think AMD might pull an $ORCL where it dips past rally, and then ends up pulling an $AVGO when markets start pricing in forward revenue. Then again, I don't know where OpenAI is getting all this money to promise Oracle, AMD, etc. all these ten or hundred billion dollar deals if they're valued at 500B lol. - Gold rallying to ATH every day just signals that $BTC is always a good buy, even at $123k, if it ends up becoming a hedge against inflation. It's close to 1/10th the market-cap. - $LTC still a great buy because of ETF approval. There's the government shutdown so people just forgot it hasn't happened yet, but should get approved eventually. - $VIRT great buy at $32.5, I'd cost average around this range (sorry if you bought calls at $36, my positions are down 35% or so). But again it's an asymmetrical hedge to VIX (VIX IV very high for hedging, VIRT is undervalued ~6.3 forward p/e with buybacks an low IV), so even if positions are down, your other stocks should go up to balance it out. - Still looking into other beneficiaries of buildouts from energy stocks, small caps like $EOSE, memory like $MU, etc. that followers recommended. I try not to talk about something much until I'm informed myself. - If you're on leverage or going long, now is the time to do it until January. 3x rate cut, market probably frontrunning Oct rate cut now.
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交易对英伟达系利空，对AMD等供应链其他环节利好。
@yield_addicted 关于这笔交易，我认为总体偏负面：$NVDA、$CRWV（以英伟达为中心）。 总体偏正面（几乎其他所有标的）：$AMD、NBIS、CIFR、IREN、TSM 等。 护城河叙事逻辑发生变化，导致下跌 2.5% 是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@yield_addicted For the deal, I'd say net negative: $NVDA, $CRWV (Nvda centric) Net positive (almost everything else): $AMD, NBIS, CIFR, IREN, TSM, etc. The 2.5% drop makes sense off moat narrative changes.
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博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
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对比博通与台积电，认为台积电作为底层基础更值得投资。
@turnandburn07 $AVGO 在定制超大规模客户专用集成电路(ASIC)领域复刻了英伟达(NVDA)凭借GPU的崛起轨迹。在高位买入总是很难，但有时股价会持续上涨。无论如何，$TSM 是英伟达、博通(AVGO)等公司的基础，所以我更喜欢这只股票，我可能会选择买入TSM而不是AVGO。
原推 ↗英文原文
@turnandburn07 $AVGO mirrors nvda's ascent with GPUs but for custom hyperscaler ASICs. It's always hard to buy things at the top, but sometimes they keep going up. Either way, $TSM serves as the foundation for NVDA, AVGO, etc, so I like the stock the best and I'd prob buy TSM over AVGO
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
原推 ↗英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
@regard_capital 我在这里写了一点关于 $ALAB 的内容 https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY $ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头(Mag7)中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率惊人，同比增长约 150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出(Capex)仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设继续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
原推 ↗英文原文
@regard_capital I wrote a tiny bit about $ALAB here https://t.co/T28ztuSkgY
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博主自述偏好短期交易，承认长期持有NVDA或NBIS回报更高。
@babyfolio 哈哈，我个人只做短期交易/动量持有。我确信人们只要持有 $NVDA 或 $NBIS 五年就能获得更高的回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
@babyfolio lol I personally just do shorter term trading/momentum holds. I'm sure people would get higher returns just holding $NVDA or $NBIS for 5 years
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解析超大规模云厂商资本支出向NeoClouds转移的逻辑，看好NBIS等标的的高回报潜力。
NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入 150 万美元以上到 NeoClouds（新型云服务商），以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7（美股七巨头）合约方：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC（高性能计算）的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 设计使然。 原本流向 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，当它们无法处理来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，现在将漏斗式流入 NeoClouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于让 $NVDA 成为 4 万亿美元公司的 GPU 军备竞赛，关键在于未来 5-10 年为 AWS/Azure 等提供基础设施支持的是谁。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 170 亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 30 亿）、CRWV（由 NVDA 背书）都在以数百百分比的速度扩张（NBIS 季度收入从 1.5 亿增长到可能超过 15 亿），且拥有 60-80% 的毛利率。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模云厂商将资本支出漏斗式注入这些小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：超大规模云厂商获胜 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN 等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure 等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是如何获得数百百分比回报的方法，而不是在 Paypal 上进行价值投资。动量交易下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更偏向投机，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司有 40 多亿资金来执行） 人们总是担心执行问题，但如果微软或谷歌没有做自己的尽职调查，是不会签署如此大的 5-10 年合约的。 - 高利率（主要看你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 等具有惊人的回报潜力。 $NBIS 在每股 138 美元以上时有 40 多亿资金（现在是 107 美元）。$CIFR 在每股 16 美元以上时有资金（现在是 11 美元）。高于当前价格的资金是一个看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（有效的担忧，但这几乎像石油一样，即使是旧型号也保持了价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年规模达到 60 亿收入，75% 毛利率），260 亿市值非常小。 - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU 即服务并直接竞争。目前这些 NeoClouds 是 NVDA 防止对 Azure/AWS 等集中风险的答案。 - 定制超大规模云厂商芯片如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求 NVDA 算力并签署了 5-10 年合约。 无论如何，像 Nebius 这样的 NeoClouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然处于非常早期的阶段。确保像特朗普选举时的 Crypto/TSLA 或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样搭乘 NeoCloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会建议全仓 YOLO，但对于这些为 Google/MSFT 等（Mag7 的现金牛）提供 AI 工作负载的小型 5-200 亿 NeoClouds，风险与回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8 个月 - 1 年。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
原推 ↗英文原文
The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return. 🔹 Buckets Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH Miners pivoting to HPC: $RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT Thesis: Mag7 is AI compute strained, by design from $NVDA. Trillions of capex that normally flowed through AWS, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud for traditional compute, will now funnel into NeoClouds when they cant handle new AI loads from Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, etc. This is a once-a-decade opportunity, similar to the GPU arms race that made $NVDA a $4T company, on who powers the infra for AWS/Azure/etc for the next 5-10 years. NBIS (17B from MSFT), CIFR / WULF (3B from GOOGL), CRWV (backstopped by NVDA) are all scaling hundreds of percent (NBIS went from 150M quarterly revenue to likely 1.5B+) with 60-80% gross profit margins. This revenue growth is almost unheard in history. It's mainly because it's the wealthiest hyperscalers funneling capex into tiny companies. NVDA / TSM (2022->): GPU for hyperscalers CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): hyperscaler wins -> parabolic growth. NBIS/CIFR/IREN/etc (2025 - ) AWS/Azure/etc. -> parabolic growth from AI compute This is how you get hundreds of % in return, not value investing in Paypal. Momentum riding the next generational companies. So bear thesis usually involves around - Execution Risk (before it was more speculative, now companies like NBIS have 4B+ to execute) People can always worry about execution but Microsoft or Google would not be signing such large 5-10 year contracts without their own DD. - Large interest rates (mainly looking at you CRWV), that's why NBIS, CIFR, and others have potential amazing returns. You have 4B+ in funding for $NBIS at $138+ a share (when it's $107 now). And funding for $CIFR at $16+ a share when it's $11 now. ABOVE current price funding is a bullish tell. - GPU depreciation (valid concern but it's almost like oil, even older models kept their value and still deliver equity). - Valuation (I still think we're just getting started. If NBIS scales to 6B rev next year 75% gross margin), 26B marketcap is extremely tiny. - NVDA potentially launching their own GPU-as-a-service and directly competing. Right now these Neoclouds are NVDA's answer to preventing concentration risk to Azure/AWS/etc. - Custom hyperscaler chips like TPU, Trainium. But likely years away, since they're still begging for NVDA compute and signed 5Y-10Y contracts. Regardless these neoclouds like Nebius are really undervalued relative to forward revenue/gross margins. We're still very early. Make sure to ride the Neocloud wave like Crypto/TSLA with Trump election or NVDA with OpenAI release. Of course this is highly speculative and I wouldn't YOLO full port calls, but Risk vs. Reward on these little 5-20B neoclouds powering AI workloads for Google/MSFT/etc, the cash cows of Mag7, is worth it. (Trade time Horizon: 8m - 1 year.) This is the single best asymmetric AI infrastructure trade for 2025-2026.
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NVDA与OpenAI互购资产，凸显AI巨头间深度绑定。
@Michael10011001 @AnaCintra24 这一切正在发生：$NVDA 购买价值 1000 亿美元的 OpenAI 股票，OpenAI 购买价值 1000 亿美元的 $NVDA GPU，并承诺向 $ORCL 投入 3000 亿美元，等等。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Michael10011001 @AnaCintra24 It's happening right now with $NVDA buying $100B OpenAI stock, OpenAI Buying $100B NVDA GPUs, promising $300B to $ORCL and so on.
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ALAB大涨验证逻辑，NBIS获巨头支持，作者建仓100万押注其市值翻倍。
$ALAB 从我两个月前推荐时的 $96 涨至 $244，涨幅 154%（尽管现在略显高估）。 $NBIS 正在重演类似的逻辑，且获得了 $MSFT 和 $NVDA 的支持。 $NBIS 从 $240 亿市值增长至 $600 亿+ 的路径清晰，这也是我建立 $100 万头寸的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
$ALAB went from $96 to $244, a 154% increase since I called it out 2 months ago (though a tad overvalued now) Similar thesis with $NBIS is happening now with backing from $MSFT + $NVDA. NBIS has a clear path to $60b+ marketcap from $24b and why I’m taking a $1M position.
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NBIS和CRWV是英伟达护城河关键，当前市值低估其远期收入。
这与 $NVDA 及其 GPU/ASIC（谷歌云 TPU、AWS Trainium）的 4T+ 论点相同，即超大规模云服务商能否取代英伟达。同样的逻辑也适用于 $NBIS。如果微软能如此快速地自建，他们不会签署 170 亿美元、为期 5 年的合同。如果你阅读了我的深度研究(DD)，NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保持护城河的战略解决方案。CRWV 和 NBIS 有助于防止超大规模云服务商掌握全部议价权，并阻止 Azure 等未来整合算力并压缩利润率。NBIS 有助于维持英伟达的护城河，这也是数百亿美元的合同收入开始从“七巨头”流向新云提供商的原因。250 亿美元的市场资本化与远期收入不匹配。
原推 ↗英文原文
That's the same 4T+ thesis with $NVDA and their GPUs/ASICs (Google Cloud TPUs, AWS Trainium) when hyperscalers could replace Nvidia. Same applies to $NBIS. MSFT wouldn't sign a 17B 5 year contract if they could build it out themselves this fast. If you read my DD, NBIS, $CRWV are Nvda's strategic solution to keeping their moat. CRWV, NBIS helps keep hyperscalers from having all the leverage + prevent Azure, others from consolidating compute and compressing margins down the road. NBIS helps maintain NVDA's moat and why hundreds of billions contracted revenue is already starting to flow from mag7 to the new neocloud providers. 25B marketcap does not align to forward revenue.
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NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
原推 ↗英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
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作者基于英伟达支持、微软大单及宏观降息，将NBIS仓位扩至百万美元，目标价225美元。
关于我将 $NBIS 仓位扩大至 100 万美元以上且目标价定为 225 美元的原因思考： 核心逻辑 ______ 当微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL) 和 Mag7 巨头成为你的客户时（就像 ALAB 或 CRED，我在它们股价低于 100 美元时重仓，或者在 $NVDA、AVGO 或 TSM 起飞之前），公司的未来增长可能会以百分之几百的速度爆发。 历史上几乎没有哪家公司像这样被 Mag7 巨头所依赖。 此外，当英伟达 (NVDA) 也有充分动机推高你的股价时…… NBIS 成为更强的买入标的，是我未来 1 年时间内信心最高的选择。 护城河 + 对英伟达至关重要的 GPU 租赁商 _______ 英伟达看到其他超大规模云厂商如 AMZN、GOOGL 正在构建自己的芯片并减少依赖。 对策？构建 GPU 租赁商（如 CRWV），通过持股和融资，使 Azure/Cloud/AWS 无法取代英伟达。 GPU 的获取越来越多地通过这些租赁商进行，正如我们在 OpenAI 身上看到的，他们不再拥有来自微软的算力，不得不转向谷歌。 谷歌的算力也不够，因此转向 WULF 等公司。微软转向 CRWV、NBIS 等公司，大型科技公司的算力需求向下游这些 GPU 提供商流动。 英伟达有充分理由推高 CoreWeave 和 NBIS 等 GPU 租赁商的估值，以对冲超大规模云厂商自研芯片的风险。 如果没有算力，数十亿美元将流向 NBIS，而英伟达在背后支撑他们。 宏观顺风 _______ Polymarket 已定价 3 次降息。 如果你看过我的另一篇帖子，十年才有一次的三次降息（对流入市场的流动性极其有利）+ 年底季节性因素，这对股票是积极的。 此外，NBIS 市值相对较小，且依赖融资/债务增长。当利息负担下降时，融资成本降低，扩张看起来更可行。 NBIS 的估值 heavily 基于未来收益，随着降息预期，来自微软和其他客户的数十亿美元收入预期将被上调。在昨天的美联储会议后，我们即将看到剧烈的重估。 公司对比 ________ 如果让我选择 NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF -> 其他，权衡潜力与投机性。 CRWV - 英伟达明确支持，市值已达 630 亿美元+。可能涨得更高，但考虑到 NBIS 拥有微软合同、类似的积压订单等，而市值仅为前者的一半多，这就是我选择 NBIS 的原因。 $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR 等 - 比特币矿工转型算力。我喜欢它们，但它们还没有像微软那样提供去风险化保障。 WULV - 我喜欢它们因为谷歌支持，但 NBIS 的可转债条款和相对于潜力的市值更好。 基本面 ______ 市值：247.8 亿美元（对比 CRWV 的 610 亿美元，后者今年仍下跌 30%），现在拥有类似的收入积压订单，轻松达到相同市值（每股 243 美元+）的潜力很大。 到 2026 年，计入微软交易后，NBIS 总收入可能达到 50-60 亿美元，毛利率强劲（≈70%）。 在 2027-2028 年，如果基础业务（非微软部分）也激进增长，总收入可能达到 80-100 亿美元+。所有这些都伴随着 ~60-75% 的毛利率。 这很疯狂，但主要是因为英伟达支持这些 GPU 公司。基于估值，NBIS 比 CRWV 更具吸引力，且比没有微软背书给予 170 亿美元的 IREN 等其他公司投机性更低。 杂项思考 ___ 他们已经筹集了 41 亿美元+，并为 170 亿美元的微软合同确保了资本支出。这是最大的去风险化事件，也是为什么我在 90 美元+ 投资 NBIS，而不是在 50 美元时投资更投机的标的。 可能还有其他来自超大规模云厂商的合同即将到来。我认为轻松路径是到 140 美元，然后可能因可转债转股下跌，再涨到 200 美元。 可能还有我没提到的细节，如几年后的利润率压缩、运营收入折旧风险等。 但这正是我投资决策的核心（宏观、基本面、行业增长、护城河+激励措施），与波段交易相比，这也是为什么 NBIS 是未来一年高信心标的的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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建议买入垄断且低估的台积电，因其他AI股均依赖其代工。
如果你在纠结 $ORCL 对比 $AMZN | $GOOGL，$AMD | $AVGO 对比 $NVDA，$NBIS 对比 $IREN 对比 $WYFI 对比 $CRWV 这很简单。直接买入 $TSM，上述所有公司都依赖于它。 估值偏低且拥有垄断地位，基于未来增长 + 边缘推理(Edge Inference)的资本支出，市值有望从 1.3 万亿美元 -> 1.8 万亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're debating $ORCL vs. $AMZN | $GOOGL, $AMD | $AVGO vs. $NVDA, $NBIS vs. $IREN vs. $WYFI vs. $CRWV It's easy. Just buy $TSM, everything above is dependent on it. Undervalued and a monopoly, will likely run from $1.3T -> $1.8T MC based on forward growth + capex from ERs.
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建议持有 $TSSI 以捕捉半导体牛市红利，预期单日涨幅超 10%。
如果你正考虑在 $TSSI 上获利了结，请记住该股在稀释前曾达 $30，且目前半导体牛市势头强劲，涉及 $SMCI、$TSM、$AVGO、$IREN、$NBIS、$WYFI、$NVDA 和 $ORCL。若涨势持续，单日涨幅可能超过 10%。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you’re thinking about taking profits on $TSSI, just remember the stock was $30 before dilution and there’s a huge semi bull run with $SMCI, $TSM, $AVGO, $IREN, $NBIS, $WYFI, $NVDA and $ORCL. Could see it go up 10%+ a day if the run continues. https://t.co/ks67hMAi01
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建议9月降低风险偏好，转向盈利股或超跌股，规避高贝塔股。
一个小建议：9月前后降低风险偏好。像$UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL、$UPWK、$KSPI...这样的盈利股，或者年内下跌的$MRVL、$SG、$SNAP...可能会表现不错。如果你满仓高贝塔(high beta)股如$PLTR、$DUOL、$HOOD、$COIN、$CRCL、$NVDA、$MSTR、$TSLA...祝你好运。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a tip: Lower risk appetite around September. Profitable stocks like $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, $UPWK, $KSPI... or stocks down YTD - $MRVL, $SG, $SNAP might do well. If you're full port calls on high beta like $PLTR, $DUOL, $HOOD, $COIN, $CRCL, $NVDA, $MSTR, $TSLA... Good luck.
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ALAB因覆盖五大科技巨头且高增长高毛利，有望复制英伟达路径实现千倍涨幅。
$ALAB 之所以起飞，是因为 Astera 是唯一一家系统性暴露于五大科技巨头（Mag7）中5家的小盘股。 1. ALAB 的客户群字面意义上就是 Mag7：$GOOGL、$MSFT、$NVDA、$META 和 $AMZN。 2. 他们的增长率令人惊叹，同比增长 ~150%+，毛利率为 76%（高于 NVDA，是半导体市场中最高的之一）。 3. 正如 $GOOGL 财报所示，AI 支出的资本支出仍在增加。 NVDA 从 1500 亿市值起步 -> 4 万亿+，因为超大规模数据中心需要 GPU。我们正处于 ALAB 在 AI 供应链中产生这种效应的起点，而其市值仅为 200 亿。 如果他们执行得当且 AI 基础设施建设持续，我们可能会看到下一个 1000% 的涨幅。
原推 ↗英文原文
The reason why $ALAB is taking off is because Astera is the only small cap company in existence with systemic exposure to 5 of the Mag7. 1. ALAB's customer base is literally Mag 7: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $META, and $AMZN. 2. They're growing at astounding rates ~150%+ y/y, with 76% margins (with higher margins than NVDA, one of the highest in the semi market). 3. Capex is still increasing for AI spend, as seen with $GOOGL earnings. NVDA started at a 150B market cap -> 4 TRILLION+ because hyperscalers needed GPUs. We're the start of this effect with ALAB for the AI supply chain, and it's starting at a small 20B market cap. We could see this being the next 1000% if they execute properly and AI infrastructure buildout continues.
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分享GOOGL盈利及回购利好，看多科技股年底表现
关于我发布的WSB图表： 在$GOOGL上，已实现利润为101,428美元+，还有大量未实现利润，因为我预计如果科技股反弹持续，GOOGL年底将触及220美元+（$META $APPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $SPOT）。 财报表现完全爆表，且他们仍有700多亿美元的股票回购计划 https://t.co/G6jrKAyumE
原推 ↗英文原文
For WSB charts I posted: On $GOOGL, realized profit was $101,428+, and lots of unrealized profit since I expect GOOGL to hit $220+ EOY if tech rally continues ( $META $APPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $SPOT) Earnings were a complete blowout and they still have 70B+ in buybacks https://t.co/G6jrKAyumE
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看好$ALAB长期潜力，建议持有而非波段交易。
嗯，$ALAB 刚刚暴涨了 16%。 我实际上不会进行波段交易或在此时获利了结，因为我认为这是另一只像英伟达(NVIDIA)那样能涨 500%+ 的股票。 你并不经常看到市值仅 160 亿美元的小盘公司，在服务于七大科技巨头(Mag7)的同时，还能实现 150%+ 的同比增长和 76% 的利润率。
原推 ↗英文原文
Well, $ALAB just shot up 16%. I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock. You don't really see small cap companies growing 150+ Y/Y with 76% profit margins serving Mag7 companies every day.
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博主建仓 $ALAB 并计划加仓，看好其高利润、高增长及顶级客户群。
我刚刚在 $ALAB 上建立了约 17.5 万美元的长期头寸，并计划将其逐步加仓至约 50 万美元，将其视为一个潜在的市值超 500 亿美元的“登月”机会。 拥有类似英伟达 (NVDA) 的利润率（76%），同比增长超过 144%，客户包括英伟达 (NVDA)、亚马逊 (AWS)、微软 (MSFT)、谷歌 (GOOGL)、英伟达 (NVDA)、AMD，而市值仅为 160 亿美元。 不可思议的客户群 + 增长/利润率。 https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB
原推 ↗英文原文
I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot. NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap. Unreal customers + growth/margins. https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB