$NVDA
相关推文
共 480 条 · 按时间倒序 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
宇树IPO超额认购8000倍，或带动美国头部人形机器人公司关注。
呃……宇树科技(Unitree)的IPO在散户中超额认购超过8000倍。纯人形机器人公司的需求简直巨大？我个人加入了美国本土的Agility Robotics俱乐部（软银、$NVDA、$AMZN、富士康等），通过$CCXI以25亿美元投前估值参与。我的看法是，宇树科技可能以300亿美元以上（来自IPO前永续债）开盘，可能会在一两周内给领先的美国玩家带来更多关注。无论如何，这种需求简直荒谬。
英文原文
uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors. The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous? I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI. And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two. Regardless that's just absurd demand.
-
OCP峰会及财报周催化光模块与机器人板块，Unitree IPO或带动机器人行情。
近期的一些事件： - 明天是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar、Lightmatter、$AMD、$NVDA），你的共封装光学(CPO)概念股正在发布公告/更新。 这应该是某些光模块玩家的催化剂。 - 财报周：$ASTS、$RKLB今天发布（太空），$LITE周二（光子学），$NBIS在本周中段（Neocloud），还有更多。 - Unitree IPO认购今天开启，预计本月上市。 如果开盘良好，应是人形机器人+机器人板块的潜在催化剂，例如 $CCXI。 接下来的一周很有趣。
英文原文
Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
-
AAOI缺席CPO部署揭示产能瓶颈，暗示其他CPO玩家价值被低估。
@00m00oo 我对 $AAOI 极度看好，它是我的核心持仓之一？ 但当 AOI 表示因产能不足而不参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署时，背后有无数问题需要拆解。 1. 独立连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB)产能，比市场预期的更少。 2. 合格的 CPO 激光器玩家，比市场预期的更少。 3. 我记得 Rosenblatt 曾认为 $AAOI 会是 $AMD 的第一个 CPO 客户，但情况可能已变... 而且由于 $LITE 和 $COHR 站在 $NVDA 阵营且未来两年订单已售罄... 其他一些 CPO 玩家可能比人们认为的更有价值。
英文原文
@00m00oo I'm extremely bullish on $AAOI, it's one of my top holdings? But there's an unholy amount of things to unpack when AOI said they're not participating in first-gen CPO deployments because there's not enough capacity. 1. Independent CW DFB capacity, even less than markets thought. 2. Qualified CPO laser players, even less than markets thought. 3. I remember Rosenblatt thought $AAOI would be $AMD's first CPO customer, but might not be the case anymore... And since $LITE and $COHR are in camp $NVDA and sold out for next 2 years... Some other CPO players might be more valuable than others think.
-
AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。
哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。
英文原文
Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.
-
博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
-
四大云厂商上调Capex指引，看好上游半导体及AI供应链瓶颈环节重估。
作为业绩复盘：$AMZN、$META、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 将 2026 年联合资本支出(Capex)指引上调至约 7200-7450 亿美元。此前指引为 6950-7250 亿美元。亚马逊：2200 亿；谷歌：1950-2050 亿；Meta：1300-1450 亿；微软：1750 亿。我们已看到显著的降杠杆和零售/机构保证金清算（可能还会持续，谁知道呢）。但中长期来看，我不太明白为何有人看空上游半导体或新云厂商。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都指出了算力短缺、云需求上升+定价权增强，或增加芯片/网络支出。我对许多上游半导体供应链的“瓶颈”论点是：当数万亿美元资本流入磷化铟(InP)衬底或存储（此前均被视为廉价大宗商品）甚至能源领域时。许多此前在电信周期中被视为无用甚至“卖马桶”的当前 AI 概念股。当拐点到来且资本支出流入其资产负债表时，估值将重估。正如过去几年 $NVDA GPU、今年存储、未来几年 CPU/MLCC、2027 年共封装光学(CPO)、2027 年玻璃衬底、2027 年 800V 等所见。
英文原文
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.
-
FORM财报显示CPO业务加速，处于早期爆发前夜，看好硅光子产业链。
以下是 $FORM 财报电话会议中关于共封装光学(CPO)的一些有趣要点： 由于“共封装光学(CPO)的加速增长”，系统收入几乎翻倍。 2026年Q1：“我们现在预计2026年CPO收入将达到1000万至2000万美元区间的高位。” 2026年Q2（当前）：“预计第三季度末将超过该区间，全年整体将显著超过2000万美元水平。” 管理层表示：“我们看到这项[CPO]业务正在显著加速。” 问：CPO采用前景。我们是否预期时间表会略微提前？ 答：“我想说的是短期内确实有加速。”但管理层表示时间表没有显著提前。 引用生产基础设施（不仅是研发）用于： - 今年晚些计划量产的CPO芯片日益增长的出货量 + 用于扩展和扩展交换机的测试插入。 - 似乎CPO部分通过 $TSM 的 COUPE 流程 [可能对应 $NVDA 的CPO产品] - “CPO部分确实通过那10%的客户流向。” 因此，鉴于管理层提到CPO芯片出货量增长，测试环节正在爬坡。 “我们CPO业务的近期快速增长令人兴奋，我们认为这代表了硅光子技术在更广泛半导体行业中广泛采用的非常早期阶段。” 简而言之：从根本上说，CPO作为一个主题仍处于非常早期阶段，但由于它现在开始出现在财报中，应该很快就会爆发（设备/测试玩家通常会在光引擎/激光器出货量爬坡之前先出现）。 个人而言，一旦所有去杠杆过程停止，我认为市场将开始更加关注这一点。
英文原文
Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.
-
超大规模云厂商资本支出强劲，计算资源稀缺，AI抛售被夸大。
以下是来自 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会议的一些要点： 微软： - 尽管资本支出增加，预计2027年将实现自由现金流(FCF)转正（这对由运营收入资助的AI建设极为有利） - “自由现金流为196亿美元，反映了更高的资本支出” - 季度资本支出为410亿美元，其中约2/3为“短期资产，主要是CPU和GPU” - 预计下一季度资本支出将超过500亿美元 - 资本支出指引约为1750亿美元，2027年资本支出大致相同。支出计划不变且符合预期。 - “将数据中心的预计使用寿命从15年延长至25年” - “我们将成为首批部署基于 $AMD Helios 和 $NVDA Vera Rubin 的下一代机架级AI基础设施的云提供商之一” - “客户需求持续超过可用容量” Meta： - 资本支出1300-1450亿美元（范围收窄），此前为1250-1450亿美元。 - Meta 收到的报价比其支付价格有“显著溢价”（计算资源稀缺，对 $IREN / $NBIS 等新云厂商有利） - 预计大部分计算资源（如埃尔帕索的1GW数据中心）将用于开发内部模型。 - Meta 在其核心业务中有多个投资回报率(ROI)为正的额外计算用途（内部使用，非Meta Compute） - “最后，我们认为整体行业产能将在可预见的未来保持紧张” - “历史上行业对AI采用浪潮的建设不足，使得现有产能，包括我们自己的，极具价值” - Susan Li 总结： - $MSFT 和 $GOOGL 主要在保持自由现金流为正或通过运营收入的同时，维持AI资本支出建设。 - $META 指出可用计算资源至少到2027年都远低于需求。$MSFT 也指出计算需求远超供应。 - 三大超大规模云服务商的资本支出基本与Google上调资本支出数字一致。 现在的AI抛售似乎被极度夸大了，超大规模云服务商继续按预期进行资本支出（微软保持自由现金流为正）甚至像 $GOOGL 那样上调。 计算资源稀缺在所有超大规模云服务商的财报电话会议中可见。
英文原文
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
-
英伟达拟担保OpenAI融资，博主质疑循环融资健康度但看好资本支出受益者。
英伟达正在洽谈为 OpenAI 的数据中心融资提供高达 2500 亿美元的担保。 - 软银旗下的 SB Energy 开发俄亥俄州 10GW 园区 - OpenAI 签署长期租赁协议 - $NVDA 担保 2500 亿美元融资 - OpenAI 正在讨论单独协议，购买高达 3500 亿美元的英伟达芯片。 不太确定这种循环融资长期来看是否健康，但鉴于 AI 基础设施支出的巨大规模…… 感觉资本支出受益者会非常高兴。
英文原文
Nvidia in talks to backstop $250B worth of OpenAI DC financing. - Softbank’s SB energy develops 10 GW Ohio campus - OpenAI signs long term lease - $NVDA guarantees $250B in financing - OpenAI discussing separate agreement to buy up to $350B in Nvidia chips. Not quite sure if this circular financing is healthy long term, but given the massive size of AI infrastructure spending… Feels like capex beneficiaries will be extremely happy.
-
AI供应链多环节瓶颈与涨价，AMD光互连及存储需求强劲。
一些新闻摘要(TLDR)： - 如果你看好中国存储，$CXMT 明天 IPO。 - 三星电子据报在获取大型 FC-BGA 基板方面遇到困难。伊比登(4062)据报要求长期协议(LTA)担保，三星电机寻求预付款。 - 三星 + $AVGO 签署至 2030 年的存储 + 代工 AI 框架，预计超过 2000 亿美元。 - $SOI 预计 2027 财年硅光子学收入将比上一年翻倍，超越摩根士丹利 60% 的增长预测。光子学逻辑起飞。 - SK 集团 + $NVDA 签署 5000 亿美元+ 合作伙伴关系，建设 AI 数据中心和 HBM4 内存。 - 据报 SKC Absolics 玻璃芯延迟至 2027 年。目标年底完成最终可靠性测试，明年量产。所以如果你好奇，这确实推迟了 $LPK 和其他人的爬坡（因此财报后下跌）。 - $QCOM 智能手机处理器价格因上游供应商涨价而两位数上涨。 - $META 预计发行 120 亿美元项目级/SPV 融资用于德克萨斯州埃尔帕索 AI 数据中心扩建。 - Naver 宣布 $NVDA 和 Brookfield 投资 100 亿美元建设 1GW 级 AI 工厂。近期计划是 2028 年达到 200MW。（英伟达投资 10 亿美元，Brookfield 非约束性 90 亿美元） - 64GB DDR5 服务器模块较 6 月底合约价上涨 146% - $INTC 将 14A 工艺量产提前一年，2027 年下半年风险生产，2028 年量产，相比此前 2029 年 HVM 预期。 - 三星电机赢得 2 亿美元 MLCC 订单（现有瓶颈）。 - $AMD（班达纳瓶颈），宣布 Helios 全面生产，2026 年 Q3 出货。包括与 Anthropic 部署高达 2GW 的 MI455X GPU 和与 OpenAI 的 6GW 基础设施。给出新的 >50% CAGR TAM，从 2025 年的 260 亿美元增至 2030 年的 2200 亿美元 CPU 市场。 - 2027 年为 Mi500 推出光互连。据渠道检查，AMD 正走向 CPO 路线（似乎很可能使用 Ayar）。 - $ORCL 赢得 70 亿美元国防部企业软件合同 - JX 金属将其韩国子公司半导体目标产能翻倍，投资 40 亿日元，2027 年下半年开始运营，应对三星电子和 SK 海力士等主要客户需求激增 - 钨六氟化物现货价格同比飙升 2.1-2.5 倍，继日本关东电化和中央气体宣布永久停产之后。随着 3M 计划退出 PFAS 生产，氟化液体供应面临真空。 - 从四家光芯片制造商财报来看，源杰/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/东山精密：无重大订单削减，1.6T 出货预计加速进入 2027 年。光芯片供应商预计将从短缺中获取超额利润。 - 宇树科技目标 2026 年人形机器人产能 30,000 台。阅读人形 TAM 像 $CCXI 等一样扩展。 - 储能锂电池订单上半年在中国增加 2900%。不太熟悉 EVE Energy 和其他电池制造商。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
-
黄仁勋首次入驻X平台并分享开放模型信件。
$NVDA 的 Jensen 首次加入 X，分享了他关于开放模型(open models)的信。
英文原文
Jensen from $NVDA has joined X for the first time to share his letter on open models.
-
AMD投资Anthropic并获巨额芯片订单，效仿英伟达模式
$AMD 将投资 50 亿美元于 Anthropic。Anthropic 反过来将签署一份价值数百亿美元的协议，购买 AMD 最新的芯片，规模为 2 GW。看起来他们是在效仿去年 $NVDA 与 Anthropic 的合作模式。
英文原文
$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic. Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars. Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year. https://t.co/SXBUq65u6P
-
AMD活动或确认CPO路线，利好SIVE等上游光模块供应商。
情况稍显微妙。基本上，$AMD 的 SF 活动将在明天（周三/周四，7月22-23日）举行。根据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的客户笔记，AMD 预计将提供更多关于其可能的大规模扩展共封装光学(CPO)路线图及 MI500 的披露信息。如果他们确认 CPO 路线，这在主题上将是积极的，因为这意味着不仅仅是 $NVDA 在推动这一转型。至于 $SIVE，如果确认他们直接处于 AMD 供应链中，我们将获得更清晰的认知。目前，可以通过 $GFS（据报道参与 AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 AYAR（AMD 投资的公司）进行映射，但尚无正式确认。因此，如果你正在交易：- CPO 主题利好：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光互联 UALink。- AMD 披露使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE 用于 MI500 CPO：鉴于 $SIVE 是上游激光器供应商/参考激光器，这对他们将极其利好。目前，杰富瑞的 Blayne Curtis 预计 AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节如下：“我们关注 AMD 是否承诺基于 CPO 的大规模扩展解决方案，以及谁提供光引擎”。周三/周四我们将通过供应链获得更广泛的认知，今天尚早，难以定论。
英文原文
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
-
英伟达披露持有Nebius 9.3%股份，提振市场情绪。
如果你好奇为什么 $NBIS 盘后上涨。 $NVDA 通过 SEC 文件披露其持有 Nebius 9.3% 的实益所有权。 这其实不算太新，因为追溯至英伟达现有的 119 万股持股加上约 21 万股的 20 亿美元预付费认股权证（Pre-funded Warrant）。 但英伟达作为 Neocloud 领导者的主要股东，对情绪面是大利好。
英文原文
If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.
-
博主认为当前崩盘源于杠杆而非基本面，强调建立独立投资逻辑的重要性。
同意！在市场崩盘时回顾自己的投资逻辑是很好的。以我个人的逻辑为例，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年 Q3 初达到 14 亿美元季度营收（年化 56 亿美元），对应 80 亿美元市值。如果到 2026 年这种营收增长尚未体现在季报中，该公司就“完蛋”了吗？这同样适用于我在共封装光学(CPO)领域的持仓如 $SIVE，这是由 $NVDA 引领的架构转变。如果规模化扩展(scale out)出货量从 2026 年下半年增至 2027 年，而规模化堆叠(scale up)大幅放量至 2028 年。如果高盛(GS)预测的从 0 到 910 亿美元的潜在市场(TAM)扩张尚未实现，就认为它“结束了”吗？对于像 Agility 这样的机器人公司，如果上市尚未发生且人形机器人未放量，2026 年就“结束了”吗？我个人认为当前市场状况反映的是流动性和杠杆问题，而非个股基本面。最近看到 KOSPI、台湾、日经指数以及 AI、太空、机器人板块股票暴跌，对每个人来说都很残酷。尤其是当大量非理性行为源于杠杆时。最终，我们无法告诉你买什么股票、何时卖出、如何仓位管理或该做什么。只分享个人想法或研究，并追踪它们是否随时间得到验证。因此，建立自己的投资逻辑至关重要，因为每个人的风险承受能力或投资期限都不同。这通常能在崩盘时带来更高的信念。
英文原文
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
-
黄仁勋否认AI服务器延期，称Vera Rubin已量产。
$NVDA CEO 黄仁勋今日在东京表示：“报道不实。Vera Rubin 已投入生产。海量产能即将到位。”这是对AI服务器将延期指控的明确否认。黄仁勋似乎正在使用 Rubin 这一统称 https://t.co/I01aStOBKE
英文原文
$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: "The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin https://t.co/I01aStOBKE
-
黄仁勋辟谣NVDA延迟传闻，称光互连进展符合计划。
所以黄仁勋本人亲自出面进行危机公关，以应对关于 $NVDA 延迟的报道： 1. 黄仁勋表示没有延迟： - 800V 和机架间光互连（rack-to-rack optical interconnects）进展完全符合原定计划，没有实质性延迟。 - 驳斥了关于 https://t.co/V2FF2QYc6O 的谣言
英文原文
So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently: 1. Jensen Huang said no delays: - 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay. - Debunked the rumor that the https://t.co/V2FF2QYc6O
-
批评市场通过夸大技术细节看空NVDA和TSM的炒作现象。
显然，看空万亿市值公司正成为一种新潮流。比如 $NVDA 或 $TSM。通过挖掘孤立的技术细节，然后夸大其词，声称其整个项目都延期了。-> 如果公司不回应，股价/情绪就会...
英文原文
Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment
-
博主调侃韩国美妆股APR两年涨幅惊人，远超英伟达与英特尔。
显然，韩国美妆才是所有超额收益(alpha)的所在。APR (278470.KS) 在过去两年上涨了 529%，大幅跑赢 $NVDA 和 $INTC。我认识的每个女性都在谈论她们的“Medicube”美容棒，然后购买那些让你把整条三文鱼家族谱系都敷在脸上的产品... https://t.co/bjIjMZTDgY
英文原文
Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is. APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC. Every female I know talks about their "Medicube" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face https://t.co/bjIjMZTDgY
-
分析某AI巨头通过融资博弈独立并建立万亿市值的路径
@SpongeQuant 如果没有完成所有这些操作，他不可能建立起一家万亿美元市值的公司。 - 获得埃隆的资助 -> 独立运营惹恼了 $TSLA - 获得 $MSFT 的资助 -> 通过引入其他超大规模云厂商注资稀释微软股份，惹恼了微软 - 获得 $NVDA 的资助 -> 为他们构建...
英文原文
@SpongeQuant He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their
-
澄清谣言后散户投降，光子学与英伟达路线图成焦点。
是的，目睹散户投降（retail capitulation）很有趣。在我们澄清了彭博社关于 Meta 计算（Meta compute）的文章（通过其内部备忘录）之后。以及英伟达（Nvidia）否认了两份关于延迟的报告之后。这两件事正是最初引发抛售的原因……所以，光子学（Photonics）/ 英伟达的路线图
英文原文
Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap
-
禾赛遭美审查，西方激光雷达厂商因竞争减少而受益。
中国激光雷达制造商禾赛科技（Hesai Technology）因其与 $NVDA 的扩大合作及激光雷达传感器业务，正面临美国方面的国家安全审查。对于 $OUST、$AEVA 及西方激光雷达同行而言，若竞争对手因监管被清退，这总体上是利好消息。鉴于此前已有警告称：传感器可能 https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
英文原文
Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
-
市场因误导性文章看空Meta算力及NVDA供应链而抛售。
@AlzayakMoh60610 我个人也这么认为。感觉市场在那篇误导性的彭博社关于 $META 算力（Compute）的文章，以及几篇 SemiAnalysis 看空 $NVDA 供应链的帖子发布后，就开始抛售了。因为算法和对“Meta 算力过剩”这一头条的解读，导致资本支出削减并退出。
英文原文
@AlzayakMoh60610 I personally think so. It feels like markets started selling off after that misleading Bloomberg $META compute article, and a couple of SemiAnalysis bear posts on $NVDA supply chains. Since algos + headline interpretation of “Meta excess compute” was cutting capex + dropping out
-
三星业绩超预期却遭市场抛售，反映市场对其涨价可持续性的担忧。
扮演市值1.24万亿美元的三星： > 市场：我们认为你们无法继续上调存储芯片价格 > 随后将DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）价格上涨20% > 发布财报 > 成为全球最赚钱的公司，超越 $NVDA 和 $AAPL > 营业利润同比增长1803% 市场：抛售三星，股价下跌7%。
英文原文
Be Samsung at $1.24T: > market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices > proceeds to hikes dram by 20% > releases earnings > most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL > operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y market: sells off Samsung -7%
-
驳斥CPO延迟谣言，看好机构回补META等AI龙头。
我至今见过的最愚蠢的主题性抛售之一： - $META 的计算新闻并不新鲜 - 共封装光学(CPO) 延迟报告 1，已被 $NVDA 驳斥 - 共封装光学(CPO) 延迟报告 2，已被 $NVDA 驳斥 我有高度信心，机构最终会做多他们正在 https://t.co/bhukB0SKoF 抛售的那些股票。
英文原文
One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off: - $META compute news that’s not new - CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA - CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re https://t.co/bhukB0SKoF
-
NVDA否认Kyber延迟，但亚太股市已因传闻暴跌。
$NVDA 驳斥近期关于 Kyber 延迟的说法：“我们的路线图完好无损”。哈哈，损害已经造成，许多市场（尤其是台湾/日本/韩国）的股票在“报道”后暴跌。
英文原文
$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims: “Our roadmap is intact”. lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report” https://t.co/ijHggRm1fu
-
质疑市场客观性，建议直接参考英伟达声明而非过度解读。
@j1nv3st 不妨说，我认为市场不再视它们为客观。人们倾向于发布过度延伸的主张，而忽略了细微的技术细节。比如几个月前关于 $MU 在 $NVDA 的 HBM4 共封装光学(CPO) 供应链中毫无份额的说法。我个人只是直接听取 $NVDA 的声明，
英文原文
@j1nv3st Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore. There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back. I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and
-
SemiAnalysis因唱空CPO引发暴跌遭反驳，随后推出光子ETF。
成为 SemiAnalysis： - 发布一篇猛烈抨击共封装光学(CPO)延迟及光模块公司估值的文章，引发暴跌。 - 遭到 $NVDA、分析师团队及主要光模块公司的反驳。 - 在光模块股下跌40-60%后，推出机构级光子学ETF。
英文原文
Be SemiAnalysis: - Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash. Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted - Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.
-
指责Semianalysis误导CPO报道致光子市场崩盘，需宏观看多。
@softmaxedx 我怪 Semianalysis 误导了共封装光学(CPO)延迟的报道，而 $NVDA 已对此予以驳斥，这导致整个光子学市场崩盘。 加上全球期刊 $META 最近的误导性报道…… 但我认为他们意识到一切都在随之崩盘，所以他们需要一篇宏观看多的帖子。
英文原文
@softmaxedx I blame Semianalysis for crashing the entire photonics market for misleading CPO delay reporting that $NVDA refuted. Alongside global journal $META recent misleading reporting… But I think they realized everything was crashing along with it, so they needed a macro bull post.
-
反驳SPAC恐慌，强调巨头背书与基本面重要性。
@supplepest 这种对 SPAC 的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)是怎么回事？我只关心公司基本面。 $NVDA、软银、$AMZN 和其他人不会只支持一些随机的垃圾公司。而且富士康正在为私募股权投资(PIPE)提供资金。 这只是为了更快的上市，特别是给美国投资者提供替代极度（受限/昂贵）的选项。
英文原文
@supplepest What's this PTSD about SPACs? I only care about the company fundamentals. $NVDA, Softbank, $AMZN and others don't just back some random crapco. And Foxconn is funding the PIPE. It's just for faster listing, especially giving US investors alternatives to the extremely