$RKLB
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
用星战梗概括太空、激光和机器人主题。
我完全相信股市在暗中围绕建造死星和战斗机器人运转： $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = 死星 $LASR / $SIVE = 激光束 $TSLA / Unitree = 战斗机器人
英文原文
I’m fully convinced the Stock Market secretly revolves around building the Death Star and Battle Droids: $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = Death Star $LASR / $SIVE = Laser Beams $TSLA / Unitree = Battle Droids https://t.co/C53qKjWrS8
-
认为INTC/RKLB/NBIS到2029仍会存在，可让已有仓位复利。
回复 @realstockfox：是的，我很确定 $INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到2029年还会存在…… 不需要不断进入新的/不同的美国仓位，只要让你已有的仓位随时间复利即可。
英文原文
@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.
-
称RKLB是最喜欢公司之一。
回复 @planetsidemarco：你在 $RKLB 工作太酷了，那是我最喜欢的公司之一。希望你在那里玩得开心！
英文原文
@planetsidemarco Super cool you're working at $RKLB, one of my favorite companies. Hope you're having fun there!
-
RKLB获得9000万美元美国太空军合同，收入不大但叙事利好。
$RKLB 获得9000万美元美国太空军合同。 收入不算多，但在美国太空建设背景下，含义和叙事会 go brrr。 在 SpaceX IPO 之前看到这个也很有趣。
英文原文
$RKLB $90M US Space Force contract. Not much revenue, but implication/narratives go brrr with the US space buildup. Fun to see before the SpaceX IPO as well. https://t.co/jamx5EHans
-
SIVE若上NASDAQ将打开美国资本流入，历史上美国机构常积累50-70%持股。
大多数美国资本以及美国投资者目前无法接触 $SIVE。 所以如果它在 NASDAQ 上市，就会有巨大的新资本流入。尤其是如果机构想买入流通盘。 历史上看，$HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS 等案例中，美国机构会试图积累50-70%。Nebius 在美国上市时机构持股低于38%。 所以很难看出这不是净正面。
英文原文
Majority of US capital as well as US investors can't access $SIVE right now. So if they get listed on NASDAQ, it's just a massive new inflow of capital. Especially if institutions want to buy the float. Historically with $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS and others, US institutions try and accumulate 50-70%. (Nebius started <38% on US listing) So hard to see it not being net-positive.
-
批评伪专家只会堆术语不懂底层技术
我百分之百确定，如果现实里见到你们这些“photonic memory（光子内存）”专家，500 个里有 498 个都讲不清 CXL 内存池化、KV cache 基础设施，以及 $PENG 到底是怎么从中变现的。 这就是为什么我现在时间线上总能看到一堆和技术无关的 $RKLB、$HIMS，或者非技术型 AI 专家。 你们在我的帖子下面胡乱评论，把 M7U MOCVD capex 和 $TSEM 这些完全不相关的东西说错，或者把每个术语都混成像 $SMCI 集成商那样，还硬往 photonics IP 上套。 然后就在我每条帖子下面塞满 buzzword。
英文原文
I'm 100% sure if I met all you "photonic memory" experts in real life. 498 out of 500 of you couldn't explain CXL memory pooling or KV cache infrastructure and what $PENG actually does to derive revenue off that. This is why I'm seeing all these random $RKLB, $HIMS, or non technical AI experts on my timeline now. Backseat commenting completely wrong things about M7U MOCVD capex and $TSEM that aren't related. Or conflating every single term like an $SMCI integrator with photonics IP. Then just pitching buzzwords every under every one of my posts.
-
寻求人形机器人早期纯正标的，2年内10倍潜力
好了各位。我需要一些关于人形机器人敞口的早期$RKLB equivalents（类早期Rocket Lab标的）的想法。未来2年内10倍+的潜在回报，且比$TSLA更纯正的人形机器人相关敞口。你们最好的想法是什么？
英文原文
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
-
没在高 conviction 上看错过
@ISITrading2717 不，我坚持我说的话。 到现在为止，我在 $HOOD、$RKLB、$TSM、$AAOI、$AEHR、$SIVE 这些高 conviction 标的上都没看错过。 现在也包括 $IREN 社区成员 IQ。
英文原文
@ISITrading2717 Nope, I stand by my words. I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stock yet from $HOOD, $RKLB, $TSM, $AAOI, $AEHR, $SIVE. And now $IREN community member IQ.
-
回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
-
被市场看空反而是机会
你会看到媒体、银行、分析师去做空 $RKLB，因为大家都觉得他们不可能和 SpaceX 竞争。 后来媒体又去做空 $AMD，因为大家觉得他们不可能和 $INTC（现在是 $NVDA）竞争。 但他们当时确实就是那个领域里的领导者，Rocket Lab 小型可重复使用火箭的成功就是证明。 只是很难一开始看出来，因为情绪总是先站在这些小公司对面，直到它们被“验证”之后才转向。 等它们被验证的时候，你已经错过全部上行了。
英文原文
You had the media/banks/analysts going after $RKLB because everyone thought they couldn't compete against SpaceX. Then you have the media going against $AMD because they couldn't compete against $INTC (and now $NVDA). They were genuinely the leaders in the space, as seen with Rocketlab success with their small reusable rockets. But it's hard to find because sentiment is always going against these small players until they get "validated". By the time they do, you miss out on all the upside.
-
从小众领导者里复制人生级收益
$RDDT 上最火的两条故事： 1. 用 $AMD 把 25.2 万美元做到 770 万美元 2. 用 $RKLB 把 16.7 万美元做到 220 万美元。 这些故事大概率是真的，因为你确实能在半导体到太空等不同产业里，找到这些小众领导者，从而改变自己的人生。 一次又一次都是这样。 关键在于： -> 找到这些利基行业里稀有的宝石 / 领导者。 -> 仓位要足够集中，才有意义。 -> 要有足够的 conviction 去熬过波动。 -> 让 thesis 自己走完（哪怕要跨几年）。 你已经多次看到我在光子链条里这样做了，比如 $AXTI、$IQE、$SIVE 等等。 但现在一切都被 AI capex 加速，5 年的东西被压缩成几个月。
英文原文
Two most viral stories on $RDDT: 1. Turning $252K -> $7.7M with $AMD 2. Turning $167K -> $2.2M with $RKLB. These stores are likely true, since it's possible to find these niche leaders to change your life around: Again and again across different industries with semis to space. What matters is: -> Finding these rare gems / leaders in a niche field. -> Having enough concentration, for it to matter. -> Having enough conviction to sit through volatility. -> Letting the thesis play out (even if it's across multiple years). You've already seen me do it multiple times with photonics like $AXTI, $IQE, $SIVE, and others. But everything is just speedran from 5 years to months due to AI capex acceleration.
-
两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
-
博主表示高确信看多$SIVE，并举例HOOD和RKLB历史高确信建仓均获利丰厚
我对$SIVE有很高的确信度。我所有历史上高确信度的选择都大幅盈利了，比如当初20美元的$HOOD或者十几美元的$RKLB。
英文原文
@leglock140448 I have high conviction in $SIVE. All my historical high conviction picks are green by a lot like $HOOD back at $20 or $RKLB in the 10’s.
-
RKLB 和 SpaceX 的数据
@BasedPeterThiel $RKLB 大概是 2023 年 87 天，SpaceX 的 Falcon 9 大概是 176 天。就是一些历史数据，粗估在 4 到 7 百万之间。
英文原文
@BasedPeterThiel $RKLB was ~87 days 2023, SpaceX falcon9 was ~176 days. Just historical data from issues, rough guess between 4-7M.
-
回顾自己今年已点名多只三位数涨幅股票，并解释自己为何坚持做多。
我感觉自己点名过最多只实现三位数涨幅的股票…… 历史上大概没有几个人比我更多吧？所以我现在才有 15 万以上的关注者！ 在短时间内： $AXTI -> 5 倍+ $AAOI -> 5 倍 $SIVE -> 2 倍+ $LITE -> 2 倍+ $IQE -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍+ $CRCL -> 2 倍+ $EWY IV -> 2 倍 Unimicron -> 2 倍+ Nitto Boseki -> 2 倍+ $OSS -> 2 倍+ $GDRZF -> 2 倍+ $AEHR -> 2 倍 还有更多，比如 $TSEM、$RPI 也接近三位数涨幅。 这里面还不包括去年像 $HOOD 或 $RKLB 那样实现三位数涨幅的很多标的，这里只算今年年初至今。 像 $FORM 以及 Macronix 之类的，还有 $NBIS，从 70 美元底部算起其实也翻倍了。但我不会把这些都算到自己头上，因为当时我没有在那个时间段专门发具体帖子。 只是随口提到很多标的，和真正有 conviction、专门写 thesis 帖子、把催化时间点判断对、并且自己真的做多，是不一样的。 不过如果这些观点帮助散户站在了正确方向上，我还是很开心的。 尤其是他们不需要花 2000 美元以上去看别人做多了哪些票，或者加入某种“特别俱乐部”才能讨论公司。
英文原文
I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.
-
抱怨版主不喜欢 AXTI 上涨，并回忆 RKLB 相关帖子被删。
@Ud197601 @KRock1287 是啊，版主们不喜欢 $AXTI 涨价，更不喜欢散户真的赚钱。 你们应该看看我第一次发 $RKLB 跌破 24 美元时的情况，那些帖子一直被删，我还因此被临时封禁，结果它后来又涨了 200%。
英文原文
@Ud197601 @KRock1287 Yep, mods don’t like $AXTI going up in price and people actually making profits. Should have seen the first time when I posted $RKLB sub $24 and those posts kept getting removed + got temp banned before it rose 200%. https://t.co/odczv2uDXm
-
博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
-
称伊朗停火消息带动市场整体转绿。
如果你在想为什么从 $AAOI 到 $RKLB 一切突然都变绿了： 特朗普刚刚同意伊朗停火两周。
英文原文
If you're wondering why everything just ticked green from $AAOI to $RKLB: Trump just agreed to a 2 week Iran Ceasefire. https://t.co/znW8nnzW6S
-
回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
-
分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
-
回顾父亲最看好的 PL，以及自己后来转向 RKLB 的经历和遗憾。
我爸最看多的股票？ $PL，3 美元时买的，现在 18 个月涨了 996.5% 以上。 我自己也为了好玩买过 1 股。 因为我当时并不觉得 Planet Labs 的营收能真正增长。 后来我转而重仓了 $RKLB。 现在 Planet Labs 已经涨了 10 倍以上，而我只剩下一堆懊悔。 顺带一提：他当年 35-40 美元时也很看好 $COIN，早期 $TSLA 他也看得很准，我一个都没听。 教训是： 有时候，你爸可能比你更会选股。尤其当你本来就跟他很像的时候。
英文原文
My dad’s most bullish stock? $PL at $3, which is up over 996.5% in 18 months. I bought 1 single share for fun. Because I didn’t think Planet Labs would grow revenue. I ended up long $RKLB instead. Planet Labs is now up over 10 times, and now I‘n left with a lot of regrets. FYI: They liked $COIN at $35-40 and early $TSLA as well, I didn’t listen to any of them. Lesson learned: Sometimes your parents are better investors than you are. Especially when you’re a mirror of them.
-
回应外界质疑，强调自己分享的是想法与回报，不需要靠炫富来证明。
谢谢你替我说话。去年我只有几百个关注者、发出 600%+ 收益时，大家都还挺支持的。 现在我有 10 万+ 关注后，反而多了无尽的嫉妒，或者一些莫名其妙的评论，比如： - “除非他们晒净资产，不然就是拿 2000 美元在交易”： 我不需要像其他网红那样发跑车或名表来证明自己是个好交易员。对我来说，最重要的是想法，而收益率已经证明了这些想法在市场里是对的。 - “拉盘砸盘”：几乎每只我持有的股票都保住了涨幅，比如 $AXTI 都涨了 500%+？我大部分收益其实还没兑现。 我从开始发帖以来，自己点名过的高信念标的，几乎都是绿的：$NBIS、$CRCL、$TSM、$RKLB、$HOOD、$ALAB、$CRDO。 也有一些新的，比如 $RDDT，但它现在也只回撤了大概 6-8%，还需要时间兑现。 还有一些更小的标的，比如 $LPTH 或 $VLN，虽然还没兑现，但从发帖以来也就跌了大约 10% 左右，具体取决于进场点，并不是因为它们基本面不好就直接崩掉。 我发的是几十只股票，所以拿其中几只还没跑出来的来代表我全部做过的东西，这真的很荒谬。如果你把所有标的等权平均，你会发现整体还是很绿的。 - “偷票”：很多这些股票都已经存在很多年了，过去也有成千上万的人做多过。 市场之所以对它们反应不同，是因为我在帖子里做了新的信息整合，或者我把它和一个别人没想到的催化剂联系了起来。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $OSS，但它之所以上涨，是因为我把它和委内瑞拉入侵联系起来了（这才是新的）。只是说一句“边缘 AI，看多 $OSS”其实什么都不说明。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $RPI，但它上涨的原因，是因为我第一个把它和 OpenClaw 的投资逻辑联系在一起（这才是新的）。光说“树莓派适合个人使用”也没什么意义。 例子还有很多，比如 $SOI、$SIVE，或者其他任何股票。 我也没说我是第一个发现 $TSEM 或 $NBIS 之类的人，那些本来就是大家都知道的光子代工厂或者 neocloud，我个人只是喜欢，也愿意跟着上车。 别人想怎么说都行，但市场才是真相的最终裁判。
英文原文
Thanks for coming to my defense. Last year when I posted 600%+ gains with a few hundred followers, everyone was supportive. Now that I have 100k+ followers, there's endless jealously or random comments like: - "Only trading with $2K unless they show net worth": I don't need to post lambos/fancy watches like other influencers to prove I'm a good trader. My opinion is ideas what matters the most, and the % return validates that they're correct in the market. - "Pump and Dump": Almost every stock held their gains like $AXTI is up 500%+? Most of my returns are unrealized. Every high conviction stock I've named over time since starting is green: $NBIS, $CRCL, $TSM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $ALAB, $CRDO. There's new ones like $RDDT but that's only down ~6-8% and needs time to play out. There's other smaller picks $LPTH or $VLN that haven't but they're only down like 10% from posting or more depending on entry point and don't just crash because they're all fundamentally good picks. I post tens of stocks, so cherry picking a few that haven't played out yet to represent everything I've done is just ridiculous. If people just take the equal weighted average of everything they're way green. - "Stealing Picks": Many of these stocks have been around for years. Thousands of different people have been long at one point in time. The reason markets react differently is I either bring novel information synthesis to a post, or I time it with a catalyst others don't. People were claiming they found $OSS first, but the reason it went up from $6 was because I linked it to Venezulea's invasion (which was novel). Just saying "edge AI, go long on $OSS doesn't mean anything". People were claiming they found $RPI first, but the reason it went up was because I was the first to link it OpenClaw as an investment thesis (which was novel). People claiming "raspberry pi for personal use doesn't mean anything". List goes on and on with $SOI or $SIVE or any other stock. I'm not claiming I'm the first either to stuff like $TSEM or $NBIS either, that's already a well known photonics foundry or neocloud, I personally just liked it and wanted to hop ont he bandwagon. People can say anything they want but markets are the final arbiter of truth.
-
回顾自己去年就有 600%+ 的收益，今年则继续沿着同样路径提速。
谢谢，恭喜！很多人看到我今年 500%+ 的年初至今收益，就以为只是因为我在 X 上比较出名。 但我去年就已经有 600%+ 的收益了，来源包括 $MSTR 从 50 美元涨到 500 美元、$HOOD 从 15 美元涨到 100 美元以上、$RKLB 从 15 美元涨到 80 美元以上。 我现在只是把去年的节奏再快进一遍而已。
英文原文
Thanks congrats! A lot of people see my 500% YTD and think it’s only because I’m well known on X. My returns last year were 600%+ from $MSTR rallies from $50 to $500, $HOOD rally from $15 to $100+, $RKLB rally from $15 to $80+. I’m just speed running it this year because of AI bottlenecks and identifying where hyperscaler capex is going before anyone else.
-
总结十条研究股票时常见误区
我在 X 上一遍又一遍看到的 10 个常见谬误。 也是我自己做研究时最重要的警惕项之一： 1. 处在“拥挤”交易里的名字，比如 $LITE 或 $COHR，并不意味着这些票不会继续涨。 （看看 Nvidia 从 2022 到 2026 年就知道了。） 2. 不要把供应链里的瓶颈和关键公司（比如 SpaceX 或 Nvidia）直接等同于股价回报。 真正重要的是它如何转化为实质性的经营利润。 我提 $AXTI 的原因，就是它大概率能因这个瓶颈涨价。 3. 内幕卖出是极端噪音。 我永远不会拿这个去推导预测，更不会据此算市值应该是多少。 4. 再重复一遍：技术分析只是指标，不是圣经。 别再在我的 Soitec 帖子下面贴 TA 然后说“超涨了！！！”了，完全不看基本面、催化剂或宏观。 尤其在基本面发生剧烈变化的时候，TA 更没意义，比如 60 亿美元的稀释，或者像 $BULL、$CRCL 这样的 IPO 流通盘锁定。 5. 稀释是有区别的。 ATM 和可转债不一样，可转债和贷款也不一样。 这里面的细节非常复杂。 有些会带来更好的股东回报，有些则更伤人，比如 $IREN 那 60 亿美元 ATM。 流通盘变化、ATM 规模和市值的相对关系，都要算进去。 6. 市场是前瞻的。差别只在于它往前看多远。 别总拿过去的收入指引去证明估值合理，因为市场已经在定价未来增长，比如 $TSEM 在光子业务起量时的前瞻增长。 7. 收入/毛利/利润都极其极其复杂。 利润可以藏在税务减记里，利润率也可以藏在利润表别的地方，比如 opex 或折旧。 所以拿“毛利/利润”（比如 $IREN）去和其他 neocloud 相比，若没有把会计口径标准化，其实没什么意义。 8. 净利润不等于 GAAP 净利润。 像 $SNAP 这类公司的真实盈利能力，可能被 SBC 之类的项目掩盖掉。 当公司对媒体宣布非 GAAP 净利润 5 亿美元时，它提交给 SEC 的正式 GAAP 净亏损可能因为 SBC 变成 1.5 亿美元。 9. 流通盘动态 + 稀释很重要。 你可以说“这公司市值 1.5 亿，利润 3000 万”，但如果你忘了 X 行权价背后还有巨大的稀释压力，那你的研究基本就被扔进垃圾桶了。 10. 一定要把收入增长 / TAM 放进去。 公司一年可以增长 200%，但如果 TAM 像金融科技那样最终见顶，营收增速迟早会掉下来。 这就是为什么 $RKLB 会因为无限的太空 TAM 预期拿到溢价，而其他在金融科技里只增长 40% Y/Y 的公司却拿不到。
英文原文
Top 10 common fallacies I keep seeing again and again on X. And some of the most important things I look out for too when doing research: 1. Being in "crowded" names like $LITE or $COHR does not mean these names won't go higher. (Just look at Nvidia throughout 2022 -> 2026). 2. Don't conflate bottlenecks and critical companies in supply chains like SpaceX or Nvidia with stock market returns. What matters is how it translates to material operating income. The reason I mention $AXTI, is likely price hikes from being that bottleneck. 3. Insider Sales are the extreme noise. You will never see me quote that anywhere to derive projections and what the MC should be at. 4. Repeat after me. TA is only an indicator, not a bible. Please stop posting TAs underneath my Soitec posts to say "overextended!!!" without any reference to fundamentals, catalysts, or macro. TA's especially, mean nothing when there's extreme fundamental changes (eg. $6B in share dilution or upcoming IPO float lockup like $BULL, $CRCL). 5. DILUTION IS DIFFERENT. ATMs are different than convertible notes that are different than loans. It's extremely nuanced. Some lead to more equity returns than others that are more harmful (eg. $IREN $6B ATM). Float dynamics, ATM sizes relative to marketcap, and all others need to be accounted for. 6. Markets are forward looking. It's just a matter of how far in the future they look. Stop only posting previous revenue guidance only to justify valuations pricing in forward growth eg. $TSEM forward growth for photonics ramp. 7. Revenue/Gross Margins/Profit are extremely, extremely nuanced. Profit can be hid in tax writeoffs, and margins can be hid in other parts of the income statement like opex, or in depreciation. So posting "gross margins/profit" (eg. $IREN) and using that to justify it vs. other neoclouds means nothing if the accounting is not normalized 8. Net Income is not the same as GAAP Net Income. True profitability from companies like $SNAP are hid by things like stock-based compensation. When a company reports non-GAAP net income of $500 million to the media, their official SEC-filed GAAP net income could be a $150 million loss because of SBC. 9. Float Dynamics + Dilution are important. You can say "oh this company is $150M MC, 30m profit" but if you're forgetting there's a massive dilution overhead at X strike, then all your research gets thrown out the drain. 10. Make sure to factor in REVENUE GROWTH/TAM. You can grow a company 200% one year, but if TAM maxes out like in Fintech then revenue growth eventually falls off the cliff. Hence why $RKLB gets premiums for infinite Space TAM growth while other companies in fintech growing at 40% Y/Y don't.
-
博主预告将发布后续帖子，指出提及的几只股票短期内不会消失。
@MontSalvatUSA @daniel_koss 我会就此发布后续帖子，像 $INTC、$COHR、$RDDT、$IBIT 和 $RKLB 这类东西在短期内不会消失。
英文原文
@MontSalvatUSA @daniel_koss I’ll make a follow up post on this, stuff like $INTC, $COHR, $RDDT, $IBIT, and $RKLB are not going away anytime soon.
-
分析$POET因$MRVL CPO业务受益逻辑，认为当前估值具备长期风险回报优势。
$MRVL 发布了财报。从电话会议纪要来看： 目标是通过 Celestial 共封装光学(CPO) 收入，在 2028 年实现 5 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，2029 年达到 10 亿美元 ARR。 $POET 作为备受散户喜爱的 10 亿美元市值中介层(interposer)股票，是此次产能爬坡（Starlight 光源）的主要受益者。 通常，收入加上库存积压会在制造和发货前约 1200 万至 1800 万美元时开始显现。 -> 大部分订单流可能会在 2027 年下半年开始涌入。 对于物料清单(BOM) 成本，估计占比约为 10-15%（推测）。因此，仅 Celestial 项目可能在 2027 年带来约 5000 万至 7500 万美元收入，2028 年营收可能达到 1 亿至 1.5 亿美元。 最大的风险是客户集中度，如果 $MRVL 想要对其光引擎进行双源采购(dual-source)。 但 $POET 和 Celestial 花了数年时间共同开发这种特定的集成方案，因此现在寻找替代方案很可能会推迟 Marvell 2028 年的商业化时间表。 而且 $POET 的上行空间在于它总能找到更多客户。 鉴于 $POET 近期稀释后依然稳健的现金资产负债表，以及热门行业较高的市销率(P/S) 倍数： 随着人们提前布局 2027 年下半年的收入，可能在 2026 年底看到估值重估(re-rating)。 我认为很多散户通常很擅长发现像 $RKLB 这样的“登月”级标的，但很多时候他们入场太早。我的观点是 $POET 也是如此。 搭乘那些刚刚触及拐点(如 $AAOI 或 $AEHR) 的股票上涨要容易得多。 但无论如何： 在 6.64 美元的价格下，风险/回报比看起来很有吸引力，尤其是拥有通往超大规模云服务商的 Celestial 后门，前提是投资者有耐心等待一年。 我在查看盈利预测时想到了 $POET。
英文原文
$MRVL released earnings. From transcript: Targeting $500m ARR 2028, $1B ARR 2029 with Celestial CPO revenue. $POET the $1B retail favorite interposer stock, is the large beneficiary from the ramp (Starlight light source). Usually revenue + stockpiles start to hit ~12M-18M ahead for manufacture and shipment -> lot of the flow will start hitting likely h2 2027. For BOM likely est. 10-15% (speculation). So possibly ~$50-75m 2027, from Celestial alone, and $100m-$150M revenue in 2028. Biggest risk is customer concentration, in the event $MRVL wants to dual-source its light engines. But $POET and Celestial spent years co-developing this specific integration, so a workaround now would likely delay Marvell's 2028 commercialization timelines. And the upside is $POET can always find more customers too. Given $POET's solid cash balance sheet from recent dilution + rich P/S multiples for a hot industry: Probably could see re-rating late 2026 once people frontrun h2 2027 revenue. I think a lot of retail are typically good at finding moonshots like $RKLB, but a lot of times they're too early. My opinion is that it's the same for $POET. It's a lot easier ride up stocks that have just hit that inflection point like $AAOI or $AEHR. But regardless: Risk/reward at $6.64 with a Celestial backdoor to hyperscalers seems promising if people have the patience to wait a year. Just thought about $POET when I went through earning projections.
-
分析$AAOI空头逻辑与执行风险，看好其超大规模云需求及潜在10倍回报。
我看到的关于 $AAOI 的空头基本观点是：2.5亿美元的定向增发(ATM)不足以覆盖产能爬坡，他们还需要5000万至2.78亿美元（考虑到规模，这只是小钱）。 主要论点始终围绕执行力和潜在逆风： - 他们能否将台湾组装业务回流美国 - 扩大激光产能，以便不再零星使用 $COHR - 制造扩张的执行情况 - 中国厂商是否会导致毛利率压缩 - 共封装光学(CPO)的到来（$GOOGL + $AVGO 已确认其退出） 我不认为这是客户集中度问题，因为从 $AMZN、$MSFT 到 $META 的每个超大规模云服务商都在抢购他们能生产的所有供应。 但我认为风险已经计入市值(MC)，超大规模云服务商的需求加上 $NVDA 资助生态系统可能是最大的顺风+信号。 如果他们能执行到位，这多少让我想起 $RKLB 的“中子星”火箭。如果完美执行，我看到10倍的空间。如果不能，那就是我为上行空间承担的风险。
英文原文
The base case I’ve seen from $AAOI short sellers was that the $250m ATM doesn’t cover the capacity ramp and they needed $50m-$278m more (which is pennies given scale) The main argument is always around execution and potential headwinds: - whether they can reshore Taiwan assembly to US - scale up laser capacity so they don’t need to use $COHR here and there - executing on manufacturing expansion. - whether there’s margin compression from Chinese players - cpo arrival ( $GOOGL + $AVGO confirmed its way out) I don’t see it being a customer concentration problem since every hyperscaler from $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are trying to buy up any supply they can make. But I see the risk being priced into MC already and hyperscaler demand + $NVDA funding the ecosystem is probably the biggest tailwind + signal. It sorta does gives me $RKLB neutron vibes if they can execute. And if they can flawlessly I see it being a 10x. And if they don’t, that’s the risk I’m taking for the upside.
-
反驳质疑，认为RKLB将构建类似Starlink的巨型卫星星座。
@builtbyaftee 预先反驳一下：$RKLB 将通过 Neutron + Flatellite 打造属于自己的巨型星座（Megaconstellation）版 Starlink。 https://t.co/7OLrHZMvVe
英文原文
@builtbyaftee Inb4 $RKLB makes a megaconstallation Starlink of its own with Neutron + Flatellite https://t.co/7OLrHZMvVe
-
早期ASTS投资者回报丰厚，RKLB与ASTS被视为SpaceX后的行业龙头。
@Alex__0x0 我见过的所有早期 $ASTS 投资者现在都是八位数百万富翁。过去几年的回报简直令人难以置信。不过，$RKLB 和 $ASTS 通常被视为 SpaceX 之后的行业领导者。https://t.co/W68xwR2FSf
英文原文
@Alex__0x0 All the early $ASTS investors I've seen are 8 figure millionaires now. The returns over the past few years are insane. But $RKLB and $ASTS are typically seen as the sector leaders behind SpaceX. https://t.co/W68xwR2FSf
-
SpaceX 高估值或带动太空板块个股在 IPO 前后暴涨。
SpaceX 在 6 月 IPO（距今 3 个月）前的估值将达到 1.75 万亿美元。 我有种奇怪的感觉，你们所有的太空股，从 $RKLB 到 $ASTS，都会在 IPO 前后出现抛物线式暴涨。 尤其是当大家看到 SpaceX 最大的竞争对手 Rocket Lab 的估值仅为 SpaceX 的 2.3% 时。
英文原文
SpaceX to be valued at $1.75T ahead of June IPO (3M from now). Having a weird feeling all your space stocks from $RKLB to $ASTS are going to be parabolic around the time of IPO day. Especially when everyone see SpaceX's next biggest competitor in Rocketlab valued at 2.3% of SpaceX's valuation.
-
看好RKLB和LASR，建议基于硬核技术长期持有。
回想起来，本应增加更多定向能武器(EDW)的敞口。尤其是随着美国“金穹顶”激光防御系统为 $LASR 带来近乎指数级增长的潜在市场规模(TAM)。我只看到两家公司：$RKLB 股价在10美元区间，拥有可重复使用火箭和无限的太空 TAM；以及 $LASR，其激光束能“砰砰”击落高超音速导弹和火箭。我会像持有迷因股一样买入并长期持有它们，纯粹基于其原始、纯粹的硬核技术。昨天看到 Nlight 激光束从“铁束”系统击落火箭的视频，确实起到了助推作用。
英文原文
Looking back, should have had more Energy Directed Weapon exposure. Especially with America’s Golden Dome laser defense giving $LASR practically exponential TAM. There’s only two companies I’ve seen: $RKLB back in the 10’s for reusable rockets and infinite space TAM And $LASR for laser beams that go pew pew to hypersonic missiles and rockets That I would buy and hold like a meme stock just based on raw, unadulterated badass tech. It definitely helps that I’ve seen videos of Nlight laser beams shoot down rockets from the Iron Beam yesterday.
-
分享过往高收益交易经验，强调轮动策略，并列出当前看好的AI瓶颈板块。
去年我分享了我的1年回报率： 在我加入X之前就已达到630.44%。 外面有很多阴谋论者。 但我确实是一个不错的自由裁量交易员（Discretionary Trader）。 其中很大一部分归功于： > 抢跑减半（Front-running halving） > 在10多美元时买入 $RKLB > 在10多美元时买入 $HOOD > 交易总统提名催化剂 > 搭乘多次上涨浪潮。 大多数人不会轮动，而是全程持有一只股票。 诀窍是搭乘每一次上涨浪潮，如果盈利开始放缓/停止，就转向下一个，不要对某只股票产生过多依恋。 今年也是如此，只是不同的板块和催化剂。 （引用内容）： 年初至今：412.72% 其中很大一部分只是选对了板块，从Jane Street算法的每周波动中获利，以及一点运气。 在瓶颈多头方面，目前我最喜欢的是： 1. 存储 - 三星，SK海力士，$SNDK，$MU，$SIMO 2. 光子学 - $LITE，$COHR，$AAOI，$AXTI，（可能还有Yamamura，但程度稍弱）。 3. 电力/电网 - $XLU。 4. 先进封装资本支出 - $AMKR，$ONTO，$CAMT，$KLIC，和 $FORM。 除了可能 $KLIC 之外，我之前都讨论过这些。 但其中大多数如果不是全部，都在短时间内上涨了50-100%+，这放大了整体交易回报。 今年我学到的最好一课是轮动到资金流向和当前瓶颈处。而不是试图在网络安全等板块进行逆势反转交易。 我也免费发布所有我的观点，希望人们能从中吸取一两点教训！
英文原文
Last year I shared my 1 year return: 630.44% before I even joined X. Lot of conspiracy theorists out there. But I do happen to be a decent discretionary trader. Large part of it was > front-running halving > buying $RKLB in the 10’s > buying $HOOD in the 10’s > catalyst trading Presidential nominations > riding multiple waves up. Majority of people don’t rotate and sit on a single stock the entire time. The trick is to ride every wave up and if earnings start to slow/stop, move on to the next and don’t get too attached to a stock. It’s the same thing with this year, just different sectors and catalysts.
-
对比低估值高增长存储股与高估值消费股，感叹市场逻辑混乱。
有两家公司根本不在乎市场崩盘。 $APP 下跌 19.7% $DNKG 下跌 19.4% $PINS 下跌至 19.1% $ASTS 下跌 15.21% $RDW 下跌至 13.1% $USAR 下跌 12.4% 白银下跌 11.6% $OSS 下跌 9.58% $RGTI 下跌 8.85% $RDDT 下跌 6.8% $RKLB 下跌 5.4% $APPL 下跌 5.09% 黄金下跌 3.4% SPY 指数下跌 1.54% SanDisk 上涨 7.21%。 另一个最大的赢家？沃尔玛，今日上涨 3.78%。 你有一家远期 2027 年市盈率(p/e)约 7 倍的存储公司，其净利润同比增长三位数。 而一家浴巾转售商，增长仅与通胀持平，却坐拥 46 倍市盈率，表现优于市场。 市场正变得越来越没有道理。
英文原文
There are two companies that don’t care about market crashes. $APP down 19.7% $DNKG down 19.4% $PINS down to 19.1% $ASTS down 15.21% $RDW down to 13.1% $USAR down 12.4% Silver down 11.6% $OSS down 9.58% $RGTI down 8.85% $RDDT down 6.8% $RKLB down 5.4% $APPL down 5.09% Gold down 3.4% SPY Index down 1.54% Sandisk up 7.21%. The other biggest gainer? Walmart, up 3.78% today. You have a fwd 2027 p/e ~7 memory company growing net income at triple digits y/y. And a bath towel reseller growing in line with inflation sitting at 46 p/e, outperforming the market. Markets are starting to make less and less sense.
-
小资金应集中投资高弹性标的，大资金则需降低风险。
微妙。通常“集中创造财富，分散保全财富”这句老话是成立的。 我大体同意，除非你分散投资的所有标的都是高贝塔且高度相关的。我不确定 $IBIT 的复苏或 $SNDK 哪个涨得更快，所以我选择多匹马下注，并给它们装上 $RKLB 这样的火箭助推器。 但通常来说，是的，投资组合越小，集中度应该越高。如果你有 $10k，也许只选2-3个你最看好的，比如 $SNDK 或 $POET（但显然风险稍大）。 用 $10k 去稳健复利 $GOOGL 或进行分散投资，不会改变你的生活（你打工赚得更多）。但一般来说，随着投资组合规模的增长，你需要承担的风险就越小。
英文原文
Nuanced. So typically concentration builds wealth and diversification preserves it rings true. I generally agree unless all your diversified picks are high beta and correlated. I'm just not sure if $IBIT recovery or $SNDK would go up faster so I bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them. But usually, yes, the smaller the portfolio is, the more concentration your portfolio should be. If you have $10k, maybe just pick 2-3 of your favorites like $SNDK or $POET (but obviously a tad more risky). Safe compounding $GOOGL or diversifying with those amounts won't change your life (you would get more working a job). But generally the more your portfolio goes up the less risk you need to take.
-
RKLB是长期看多标的，若超涨至90美元以上将减仓等待回调。
是的，抱歉没有澄清其中的细微差别。在10年的时间框架内，$RKLB 是我对比特币最看好的标的。话虽如此，如果它看起来过度延伸至90美元以上，我不介意减仓并等待再次下跌时的买入机会。市场不会直线上涨。
英文原文
Yeah sorry for not clarifying the nuance. $RKLB is my most bullish pick with Bitcoin on a 10 year timeframe. That being said, if it looks overextended to $90+, I’m not afraid to trim and wait for opportunities to buy it if it drops again. Markets don’t move in a straight line up
-
补充FLY为登月级标的，RKLB短期高估但下跌可重仓。
@DanielM16458500 哦，我忘了把 $FLY 作为与 $NOC 合作的中程发射(medium lift launch)的“登月级(moonshot)”标的列入。我的个人投资组合里有很多我没列出的奇怪小众标的。 关于 $RKLB，我再次觉得它短期被高估，但如果进一步下跌，我会重仓加仓。
英文原文
@DanielM16458500 Oh I forgot to include $FLY as a moonshot pick for their medium lift launch with $NOC. I have a lot of weird niche picks in my personal porffolio that I didn’t include. $RKLB again I felt was near term overvalued but I’d add heavy concentration if it dropped further.
-
列举国防股标的，认为RKLB短期高估但长期首选。
$OSS、$AIRO、$DPRO、$LPTH（勉强算）是国防股。忘了在上面加上 $AVAV，但我会把它加在 $259 的位置。 由于与格陵兰达成和平协议，近期没有真正的军事催化剂。但随着新的伊朗紧张局势，它们可能会再次受到关注。 话虽如此，我觉得 $RKLB 目前有点被高估，但长期来看它是我首选的标的。
英文原文
$OSS, $AIRO, $DPRO, $LPTH (sorta) are defense stocks. Forgot to include $AVAV up there but I’d add that in at $259. There was peace with Greenland so no really military catalysts recently. But they might pick up again with new Iran tensions. That being said just feel like $RKLB is a tad overvalued right now but long term it’s my favorite pick
-
博主将50%仓位投入比特币，视其为长期最高信念资产。
我对比特币持有纯粹且完全坚定的信念。 我刚刚在约 73,000 美元的价格将 50% 的仓位投入其中。 在长期时间框架下，比特币和 $RKLB 是我信念最强的资产。 我很乐意持有任何波动。
英文原文
I have pure and completely regarded conviction in Bitcoin. Just put in 50% of my portfolio into it around $73K. Bitcoin and $RKLB are my highest conviction assets on a long term timeframe. I’m happy holding it through any volatility. https://t.co/IskCechnmA
-
复盘上月提及的AIRO、LPTH和AVAV表现，重申其投资逻辑。
大家都在走上路。所以 $VPG 是那个强力核心。说正经的，$AIRO、$LPTH 和 $AVAV 都是上个月提到的。$AIRO 自提及以来上涨了 24.9%。我进行了加仓摊平成本，所以在回调后略微盈利/持平。这是我对 $ONDS 的补涨操作，投资逻辑没有改变。$LPTH 下跌了几个百分点，作为锗(Germanium)瓶颈环节的修复方案。基本面没有发生严重的恶化。这是美国锗供应链从向中国转向黑钻(Black Diamond)的长期战略。短期2-3周的价格波动不重要。$AVAV 上涨了，但我是在320多美元时讨论的它。$RKLB 是一家市值450亿美元以上的发射公司，而 $AVAV 凭借数十亿美元的国防合同，年增长率达到三位数。所以在130-140亿美元市值时，我认为这是一个很好的长线标的。
英文原文
They’re all running it down Toplane. Hence why $VPG is the hard carry. Jokes aside $AIRO, $LPTH and $AVAV were all mentioned last month. $AIRO was up 24.9% since I mentioned it. Cost averaged up, so slightly green/breakeven after the drop. This was my catchup play to $ONDS and nothing about the thesis changed. $LPTH is down a few percent as a Germanium choke point fix. Nothing too dire materially changed. This was a long term US germanium supply chain pivot away from China into black diamond. Short term prices in 2-3 weeks don’t matter much. $AVAV is up, but I did talk about it in the $320s. $RKLB is a $45B+ launch company and AVAV is scaling triple digits Y/Y off billions in defense contracts. So at $13-14B I think this is a good long
-
白银暴跌引发连锁清算，建议转向AI及高现金流标的防御。
市场正经历清算级联效应。白银的崩盘现已蔓延至加密货币及美/外股市。具体情况如下： 以下是预期走势： - $BMNR（加密货币） - $RKLB（高贝塔值） - $SNDK（AI） - 至三星（外国股票）。 “Warsh”美联储主席提名是引发抛售的初始触发因素，市场将其视为“鹰派”->量化紧缩（Quantitative Tightening）。然而，这是一个误解，因为美联储主席很可能与特朗普的政策保持一致，且由于AI因素，其近期立场偏向短期鸽派+降息。 然而，抛售的技术性原因是CME+交易所控制强制白银保证金清算。随着白银日内暴跌33%，机构被迫清算其他标的并进行对冲。因此，我们看到了： 1. 恐惧传染——当避险金属如此暴跌时，会在其他板块引发恐慌。 2. 避险情绪——投资者恐慌性抛售“风险”资产和股票/转向美元和国债。 为了进行防御性操作： - 最好将投机性标的重新配置为符合新政策的自由现金流（FCF）/盈利型多头头寸。 - 如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 跌至 $MU、$TSM、$JPM、三星等标的将受益最大。 - 从 $PYPL 到 $SNAP 等已处于低位（具有强劲预期自由现金流）且被进一步抛售的股票，呈现出不错的反弹上行空间。 尤其是鉴于美联储主席预计对从AI到银行业的许多板块持看涨态度，且由AI增长+生产力推动的降息预期强烈。 警告： - 更多不产生巨大自由现金流的投机性小盘股（从 $ONDS 到 $RKLB）可能因与高贝塔板块抛售的相关性而面临更大风险。 - 像 $BMNR 这样持有非流动性资产（例如Mr. Beast公司2亿美元）的杠杆基金，以及像 $QBTS 或 $RGTI 这样的投机性标的，可能会最终看到重置/清零。 - 像 $JD 到 $BABA 这样的外国市场标的或像 $MELI 这样的新兴市场标的可能会受到流动性流失的影响。 当然，日内交易者可能会在高贝塔标的的反弹时机上大显身手（例如，如果 $ETH 闪崩12%至$2.1K -> 恢复至$2.3K）。 话虽如此，这并不是说“卖出高贝塔”。 鉴于以太坊从$3k+跌至$2.18k，这只是对目前在高贝塔板块使用保证金的人发出的警告： 如果高贝塔股票出现持续抛售，风险相当大。（我个人将以太坊作为代理指标）。 这只是个人市场观点，但总体而言，随着中期选举临近+更多预期的降息+财报表现创历史新高（例如 $SNDK 的爆发），对市场保持极度看涨是好的。 市场在中期选举前看到绿色V型复苏只是时间问题。 基本面没有改变，但表象和短期流动性改变了。
英文原文
Markets are seeing liquidation cascades. Silver's crash is now extending into other markets like Crypto and US/Foreign stocks. Here's what's happening: And here's what to expect from: - $BMNR (Crypto) - $RKLB (High-Beta) - $SNDK (AI) - to Samsung (Foreign). The "Warsh" Fed Chair nomination was the initial trigger that caused the selloff as markets viewed him as a "Hawk" -> Quantitative Tightening. However, this is a mistake as the fed chair is likely aligned with Trump's policies, and his recent stance is dovish short term + rate cuts, due to AI. However, the technical reason for the selloff was CME + Exchange controls forcing margin liquidations on Silver. As silver crashed 33% intra-day, institutions are forced to liquidate other names and hedge. So, we're seeing both: 1. Fear Contagion - when a safe haven metal plummets this much, this causes a panic across other sectors. 2. Flight to Safety - investors panic-sell "risky" assets and stocks / move to U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds. To play defensive: - It's best to reposition speculative names into FCF/profit generating long positions aligning with these new policies. - Names like $GOOGL, $NVDA down to $MU, $TSM, $JPM, Samsung, and others stand to benefit the most. - Stocks that are already at lows (with strong expected FCF) from $PYPL to $SNAP that are being sold off even more present decent recovery upside. Especially since the Fed chair is expected to be bullish for many sectors from AI to Banking, with rate-cuts fueled by AI growth + productivity. For a warning: - More speculative small cap names (that don't generate massive FCF) from $ONDS to $RKLB may be more at risk due to correlation to high-beta sector selloffs. - Leveraged funds like $BMNR with iliquid assets (eg. $200M in Mr. Beast's company) to speculative names like $QBTS or $RGTI may finally see a reset/wipeout. - Foreign market names like $JD to $BABA or emerging market names like $MELI may be impacted from a liquidity drain. But of course, day-traders may have a field day timing rebounds on high-beta names (eg. if $ETH flash crashes 12% to $2.1K -> recovery to $2.3K). That being said this is not saying "Sell High-Beta". This is just a warning to people with margin on high-beta sectors now that given Ethereum's flush from $3k+ down to $2.18k: There's considerable risk if there's an extended selloff on high-beta stocks. (I've been personally looking at Ethereum as a proxy). This is just personal market opinion, but generally as midterms come up + more expected rate cuts + earnings coming out higher than ever (eg. $SNDK's blowout), it's good to remain extremely bullish on the market. And it's just a matter of time before markets see a green V recovery before midterms. Fundamentals haven't changed but optics have and short-term liquidity have.
-
长期看好RKLB，但因短期高估暂不纳入短中期名单。
@AstronautCoin 长期来看，$RKLB 可能是我最看多的股票。不过短期来看它被严重高估。所以我暂时将其排除在外。这更像是一份我的短中期观察名单。
英文原文
@AstronautCoin Long term, $RKLB is probably my most bullish stock. Short term though it's pretty overvalued. So I just leave them out. This is more like a short-med term list for me.
-
看好Intel受白宫政策补贴及巨头背书，具高非对称性回报潜力。
永远不要做空白宫。 $INTC 可能是半导体领域目前最具非对称性（asymmetrical）的多头机会之一。https://t.co/ow1BO48XO4 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： $INTC 基本上就是半导体界的 $RKLB 之于 SpaceX，是我最大的持仓之一。 众所周知，随着 Nvidia 到 Apple 等巨头背书，它终将赶上 $TSM，成为美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。 这只是时间问题。 在 $2340 亿市值（$TSM 为 $1.5 万亿）下，仅凭等待就有约 7 倍回报。 无论是 2 年还是 10 年，我坚信 Intel 是市场中罕见的机会，你可以投资白宫以及无限印钞机补贴的烧钱晶圆厂（foundry）开发。 这不是赢家通吃，半导体 TAM（总可寻址市场）将持续增长，$TSM 是很好的多头，但当 Intel 产能可用时，从 Google 到 Nvidia 的美国超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）将迫于压力使用 Intel。 美国不会让 Intel 失败，这是基于美国政策的高确信度（high conviction）多头。
英文原文
Never bet against the White House. $INTC is probably one of the most asymmetrical longs in the semi space right now. https://t.co/ow1BO48XO4
-
建仓$VPG，看好其作为$TSLA Optimus核心供应商的高BOM占比及不对称收益。
我已建立 $VPG（市值5.73亿美元）的头寸。 这是我未来在机器人领域的主要敞口，与 $TSLA Optimus 紧密挂钩。 市场完全忽视了这一机器人板块的投资机会： 对于每一台部署的特斯拉 Optimus，$VPG 很可能占据极高的物料清单(BOM)份额。 VPG 可能是特斯拉 Optimus 量产爬坡的主要供应商，这已是公开的秘密。 这一发现最早由 Citron Research 提出（我不居功）。 2025年4月，Citron Research 发布报告，称 VPG 为“隐藏的特斯拉 Optimus 概念股”。 他们指出，VPG 在2023年11月宣布与一家人形机器人开发商达成“重大设计胜利”，就在特斯拉于2023年12月发布 Optimus Gen 2 之前。 Citron：“证据确凿：VPG 不仅向特斯拉 Optimus 供货，还预计从此次扩产中获得巨额收入，但由于保密协议，这部分收入目前对市场不可见。” 我在2025/2026年后期与多家卖方/买方分析师交叉验证了关于 VPG 的信息： 许多来自 Signia Capital 的人士提到 $VPG：“最显著的应用将是特斯拉的 Optimus 机器人，该机器人于2022年原型化，目标在2026年投产”。 然而，由于2023-2025年原型机阶段 Optimus 及其他机器人的量产爬坡并不存在，这一点被完全遗忘了。 然而，鉴于彭博社报道 OpenAI 上周推动机器人领域发展： 我预计机器人行业今年将触及拐点。 该公司基本面已经非常扎实： - 营收7970万美元（同比增长5.3%，但预计因机器人行业而指数级增长） - 毛利率40.5% - 净现金约6500万美元（现金8600万，债务2000万） $VPG 在块状金属箔(Bulk Metal Foil)材料科学/专利方面拥有护城河，引入了 Z-Foil 技术，并实现了垂直整合。虽然我不能说完全理解所有细节，但这正是 $TSLA 与 Vishay 合作进行 Optimus 迭代原型开发和规模化的原因。 关于 BOM： 有一些 BOM 估算如下： 腿部/运动系统：约21,300美元（占成本38%）：集中在高扭矩执行器。 核心稳定性：约15,600美元（28%）：结构性躯干和肩部机构。 灵巧手：约9,500美元（17%）：执行器和 VPG 式传感器。 计算/AI：约2,100美元（4%）：双 FSD 芯片和8摄像头阵列。 但总体而言，我们可以估算每台机器人的价值中约有3-8%归 $VPG 所有，因为 Shoshani 明确表示 VPG 预计每台机器人在ERs中能获得500至1,200美元的收入。 Elon 喜欢吹嘘大数字，但如果按字面意思理解“德州超级工厂年产1000万台的目标” 1000万台机器人/年 × 750美元/台 = VPG 年营收75亿美元。 考虑到 $VPG 是一家目前处于机器人供应链深处的5.74亿美元小市值公司，鉴于其不对称的上行空间，我建立了多头头寸： - 与 $TSLA Optimus 供应链的高度相关性概率高 - 每台部署机器人的 BOM 占比高 - 资产负债表非常干净，这很罕见。 请自行研究，这只是我建立多头的个人思考过程。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m). This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus. Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play: For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for each. It's a pretty open secret by now that VPG is likely a main supplier for Tesla Optimus Ramp. This was first discovered by Citron Research (not taking credit for this). In April 2025, Citron Research published a report calling VPG the "Hidden Tesla Optimus Play." They pointed out that VPG announced a "major design win" with a humanoid developer in November 2023, right before Tesla revealed the Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023. Citron: "The evidence is conclusive: VPG is not only supplying Tesla Optimus but expects substantial revenues from this ramp-up, revenue currently invisible to the market due to confidentiality" I've cross-checked with recent Sellside/Buyside analysts much later in 2025/2026 regarding VPG: Many from Signia Capital mention for $VPG: "The most notable application would be Tesla’s Optimus robot, which was prototyped in 2022 and is targeting production in 2026". However, this was completely forgotten given robotics ramp from Optimus and others were nonexistent through 2023-2025 for the prototyping phase. However, given OpenAI's push to robotics last week per Bloomberg: I expect robotics to hit the inflection point this year. This company is extremely solid fundamentally already: - $79.7 Million Revenue (up 5.3% Y/Y but this should ramp up exponentially due to robotics sector) - 40.5% Gross Margins - ~$65 Million Net Cash ($86m Cash, $20m Debt) $VPG has a material science/patent moat for Bulk Metal Foil, introduced Z-Foil technology, and is vertically integrated. Can't say I understand it all, but it's the reason why $TSLA has been prototyping and scaling their Optimus iterations with Vishay. As for BOM: There are BOM estimates like: Legs/Locomotion: ~$21,300 (38% of cost): concentrated in high-torque actuators. Core Stability: ~$15,600 (28%): structural torso and shoulder mechanisms. Dexterous Hands: ~$9,500 (17%): Actuators and VPG-style sensors. Compute/AI: ~$2,100 (4%): Dual FSD chips and 8-camera array. But generally, we can estimate 3-8% of each robots value is est. $VPG since Shoshani explicitly stated that VPG expects to capture between $500 and $1,200 in revenue per robot in ERs. Elon likes to claim big numbers, but if you take it at face value "10-million-unit annual target at Giga Texas" 10M robots/year × $750/robot = $7.5 Billion in annual revenue for VPG. Considering $VPG is a small $574M company deep in the robotics supply chain right now, I entered long positions given the asymmetrical upside - of high probability correlation to $TSLA Optimus supply chains - high BOM of each robot deployed. - very clean balance sheet, which is rare. Please do your own research, this is my own personal thought process of why I entered this long.
-
博主转发并提及五只美股代码。
@AnalizAyaz $NBIS, $RKLB, $IBIT, $TSM, $LPTH
英文原文
@AnalizAyaz $NBIS, $RKLB, $IBIT, $TSM, $LPTH
-
对比RKLB与DPRO的政府资金优势，提示早期风险并看好无人机基建。
好问题！这有点像 $RKLB 虽然来自新西兰，但受益于美国国防部(DoD)的资金支持。 $DPRO 同时受益于加拿大和美国的资金支持，因为它符合《国防授权法》(NDAA)的规定。 再次强调，由于处于早期阶段，存在大量风险，不要指望未来财报发布前会有太多利好被计入股价。我只是认为他们的无人机基础设施(Drone Infra)建设具有潜力。
英文原文
Good question! It’s kinda like $RKLB is from New Zealand but benefits from US DoD funding. $DPRO gets benefits from both Canada and US funding as its ndaa compliant Again there are tons of risks since its early stage and don’t expect much to be priced in until their future earnings. I just thought their drone infra buildout had potential
-
建仓$DPRO，视其为无人机战争基础设施，类比早期$RKLB，具高增长潜力。
我建仓了少量 $DPRO（市值2.4亿美元）。 这是一家端到端的战争无人机承包商，Draganfly 看起来像是无人机领域的 $RKLB（Relativity Space）。 $ONDS 从 0.51 美元涨到 15 美元（13倍），我一直在寻找类似的标的。 以下是市场（和我自己）之前忽略的点： Draganfly 是一家垂直整合的国防主承包商，而不仅仅是无人机制造商。 $DPRO 控制着从工厂基础设施到最终无人机的整个生态系统。它是《国防授权法案》（NDAA）禁止大疆（DJI，曾占据估计 70-80% 市场份额）后的最大受益者。 我之前没理解的最大护城河：嵌入式生产（embedded production）。 我关注的是当前较小的营收数字，却忽略了他们正在美国多个基地建设分布式制造能力。 Draganfly 与美国陆军（2025年9月）的合同不仅仅是交付无人机；而是要在美国基地安装微型工厂（Micro-Factories）。 它将 Draganfly 融入美国战争部（Dept. of War）的体系中，创造出竞争对手无法取代的“粘性”。 我建仓的原因是：他们的无人机产能从 2025 年的 500 万美元跃升至 4 亿美元。 结合其与 Global Ordnance 的合作伙伴关系（作为分包商，Ordnance 获得了 7.5 亿美元 IDIQ 合同），以及 US-CAD 项目（双方均受益，如 2.2 亿美元对北约的 CAD 资金）。 $DPRO 有可能实现三位数甚至 1000%+ 的同比增长率。 而且……营收会在财报中以惊喜的方式体现在资产负债表上。 每个无人机玩家如 $AVAV、$AIRO、$ONDS 都有自己的专长，$DPRO 专注于非动能和基础设施方面： -> 瑞典等欧洲国家（2026年）使用 $DPRO 无人机进行救生行动。 -> DEF-C -> 乌克兰冲突中的侦察无人机 -> Global Ordnance（大型国防承包商） -> 美国战争部（美国陆军） 而这些非动能无人机可以转化为动能应用。 手握 5100 万美元现金（健康的资产负债表），仅 20% 的产能爬坡就对应约 2.2 倍远期市销率（p/s）。 这是一个非常投机的风险投资式押注，因为他们正在快速扩张基础设施（就像早期的 $RKLB），Northland 给出了 20 美元的目标价。 这是一种直觉，认为营收将赶上他们在美军中部署的基础设施（特别是 Replicator 项目，且直到财报发布前都是隐藏的）。 $DPRO 在 FinX 上已经很受欢迎（说服其他用户花了一些功夫），所以我个人也加入了这场狂欢，想看看它会走向何方。 TLDR：在 $DPRO 建立少量投机性头寸，因为它有望成为无人机战争的基础设施（就像 2 美元时的 $RKLB 之于太空），具有巨大的上行潜力。 由于处于极早期阶段，随着产能建设的收入确认，也存在大量风险。
英文原文
I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m). This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas. $ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent. Here’s what markets (and myself missed). Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime, not just a drone maker. $DPRO controls the entire ecosystem, from the factory infrastructure to the end-drone. And it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI, which controlled est. 70-80% of market share. The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier: embedded production. I looked small current revenue numbers but missed the that they’re buildout distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases. Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army (Sept 2025) isn't just to ship drones; it is to install Micro-Factories at US bases. It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of US Dpt. of War, creating a layer of "stickiness" that is impossible for competitors to displace. Here's why I entered positions: they went from $5M drone capacity ramp in 2025 to $400m. Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance (where it’s a sub-contractor and Ordnance received $750 Million IDIQ), US-CAD programs (benefits from both) like $220m CAD funding to NATO. It’s possible for $DPRO from triple digits or possibly 1000%+ revenue growth rates Y/Y. And... revenue hits balance sheet by surprise in the earnings. Each drone player from $AVAV, $AIRO, $ONDS, have their own specialty, $DPRO focuses on the nonkinetic and infrastructure aspect: -> European countries like Sweden use $DPRO drones (2026) for life-saving operations. -> DEF-C -> reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict -> Global Ordnance (massive defense contractor) -> U.S. Department of War (US Army) and those nonkinetic drones can be transformed with kinetic applications. With $51M cash on hand (healthy balance sheet), just 20% of capacity ramp would be ~2.2 fwd p/s. This is a very speculative venture style bet as they've been rapidly expanding infrastructure (like $RKLB at the start), with Northland giving $20 PT's. And this is a hunch that the revenue will catch up to the infrastructure they've deployed across the US army (esp. with Replicator programs and is hidden until earnings). $DPRO has already been popular on FinX (and it took some convincing from other users) so I've personally joined the party as I'm curious to see where it heads. TLDR: took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare (like $RKLB back at $2 for space) with high potential upside. As it's extremely early, there's lot of risks as well with revenue recognition from capacity buildout.
-
特朗普关税恐慌是估值礼物，国防与本土AI供应链将受益于政策博弈。
关于$OSS -6.1%至$ONDS -4.85%下跌引发的潜在市场崩盘恐慌很多。但随着市场转红，特朗普已开始降级局势。从特朗普关税的历史来看，我们知道一件事：特朗普非常在意市场： - $AVAV的复制者（Replicator）Switchblade无人机项目 至 - 复制者2（Replicator 2）反无人机系统，$AIRO、$ONDS等可能受益。 1.5万亿美元的拟议国防支出保持不变。 AI建设中的 - $LITE、$COHR在$GOOGL和超大规模ASIC建设中的角色 或 - $INTC、$SKY在美国本土硬件中的角色 均未改变。我们正见证历史上最大的无人机、关键材料储备、AI建设、太空扩张及“美国制造”供应链的扩张。 我认为这种波动往往是“估值礼物”，因为这些都是空头威胁。欧美领导人之间的泄露消息显示对话正在进行。特朗普只是在用“极限施压”话术看能谈判到什么。当然，特朗普将标普500视为其实时支持率，这就是为什么他在中期选举前迫使大幅降息。随着美股隔夜转红，我们已看到局势缓和。我们很可能会看到完整的“贸易协议达成”，以便他宣称成功->市场创历史新高。
英文原文
There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from $OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON. But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red. From the history of Trump's tariffs We know one thing. Trump cares too much about the market: $1.5T in proposed defense spending from - $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs to - Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others. is still the same. Nothing in the AI buildout from - $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout or - $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware has changed. We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history. My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place. Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated. And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections. As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already. And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.
-
分析AVAV、AIRO、DPRO在美军复制者计划中的角色及风险收益特征。
$AVAV 绝对是的。它是黄金标准，并且已经是“复制者”(Replicator) 计划的一部分。（因此与 $KTOS 一起已经取得了成功） $AIRO 用于反无人机“复制者”(Replicator)，具有最高的上行潜力和最低的下行风险。 我稍后会写一篇关于 $DPRO 的文章，但它让我想起了早期阶段的 $RKLB，上行空间非常具有投机性。
英文原文
$AVAV definitely. It’s the gold standard and is already part of replicator. (So already successful alongside $KTOS) $AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk. I’ll do a write up on $DPRO later but it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside.
-
格陵兰关税引发恐慌，建议逢低买入美国防、关键材料及本土半导体股。
美股期货因格陵兰关税新闻下跌。 许多欧洲股市热门股现下跌： $ONDS (-8.55%) 或 $RKLB (-7.65%)。 以下是如何从该局势中潜在获利的方法： 第一层：供应链 这是与北约盟友的争端。这威胁到供应链。 许多美国国防系统依赖欧洲组件（德国光学器件、英国/荷兰芯片）。格陵兰是稀土元素(REEs)的巨大潜在来源。 格陵兰受阻意味着美国必须依赖国内来源。 与欧洲的贸易战给国防承包商和其他部门带来混乱。 如果下跌，美国关键材料供应商如 $MP 或瓶颈对冲如 $LPTH 将是良好的逢低买入机会。 第二层：美国直接冲突/战争 战争板块如 ($AVAV 或 $KTOS) 实际上极具韧性，因为从根本上说，争端涉及美国国家安全。 欧洲（莱茵金属、萨博）国防股正在反弹，而美国（如 $ONDS）遭抛售。美国代码被恐惧的欧洲散户投资者错误定价。 国防股可能在“避险”恐慌初期下跌，但它们实际上最终成为与北约盟友紧张关系的主要受益者。（特朗普的事你无法预知）。 如果隔夜或盘前出现大幅下跌，如果发生无差别抛售，这可能是一个良好的买入机会。 第三层：美国半导体供应链/晶圆厂 与欧洲（特别是荷兰/ASML 和德国/蔡司）的贸易战严重损害半导体供应链。 在所有这些痛苦中，垂直整合的“美国制造”硬件公司将受益最大。 如果下跌，像 $COHR、$AMKR 或美国晶圆厂如 $INTC、$GFS 这样的公司可能是良好的逢低买入机会。 这更微妙，因为市场认为它们仍然有风险，因为许多“国内”玩家仍依赖欧洲进口（ASML 光刻、蔡司光学）来运营。 然而，这是关于供应链主权的美国国家安全，这是对美国政府不会让这些公司失败（例如英特尔的国家安全豁免）的美国政策的非对称性赌注。 可能避免： 科技/SaaS 的接飞刀，因为它们被视为“风险资产”，通常被抛售最多，除非情况极端。 _ 鉴于流动性低，欧洲市场可能正在恐慌性抛售至真空。 套利机器人可能会迫使美国隔夜价格下跌以匹配欧洲/期货的“隐含价格”。 然而，如果实际受益于该局势的板块出现跳空低开，这可能是极好的机会。 方向上，市场可能会看跌。 但预计许多这些 -7% 或 -9% 的数字将恢复到合理水平如 -1.5%，有些甚至翻正。
英文原文
US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news. Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down: $ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%). Here's how to potentially profit off the situation: Tier 1: Supply Chains This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply chains. Many US defense systems rely on European components (optics from Germany, chips from UK/Netherlands). Greenland is a massive potential source of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The blockage of Greenland means the US must rely on domestic sources. A trade war with Europe creates chaos for defense contractors and other sectors. US Critical Material providers like $MP or bottleneck hedges like $LPTH would be a good dip buying opportunity if they drop. Tier 2: US Direct Conflict/War War sectors like ( $AVAV or $KTOS ) are actually extremely resilient since fundamentally, the dispute goes back to US National Security. EU (Rheinmetall, SAAB) defense stocks are rallying, while US ( eg. $ONDS ) got sold off. US tickers are being mispriced by fearful European retail investors. Defense stocks might drop initially during "risk-off" panic but they actually end up being the primary beneficiaries of the tension with NATO allies. (you never know with Trump). Any large drops (if they happen) overnight or pre-market, this might be a good buying opportunity if there's an indiscriminate selloff. Tier 3: US Semi Supply Chains/Foundry A trade war with Europe (specifically the Netherlands/ASML and Germany/Zeiss) hurts the semiconductor supply chain immensely. Through all this pain, the vertically integrated "Made in America" hardware companies would benefit the most. Companies like $COHR, $AMKR, or US foundries like $INTC, $GFS might be a good dip buy if they drop. This is more nuanced since markets think they're still risky because a lot of the "domestic" players still rely on European imports (ASML lithography, Zeiss optics) to operate. However, this is US national security for supply chain sovereignty and this is an asymmetrical bet on US policy that they won't let these companies fail (eg. National Security Exemptions for Intel). Probably avoid: Falling knives on Tech/SaaS since they're considered "risk assets" and usually get sold off the most, unless it goes extreme. _ European markets are likely panic-selling into a void, given low liquidity. The arbitrage bots might force US overnight prices down to match the "implied prices" of European/Futures. However, this might be the excellent opportunity if there's a gap-down on names on sectors that actually benefit from the situation. Directionality, markets are likely going to see red. But expect many of these -7% or -9% numbers to recover to reasonable levels like -1.5%, with some flipping positive.
-
看好SpaceX创始人埃隆推动公司市值达万亿。
@RKLBMan 埃隆正不惜一切代价试图让市值达到1万亿美元！ 我很想看到这一幕成真，他是我们这一代的爱迪生。
英文原文
@RKLBMan Elon is trying to hit $1T by any means necessary! I’d be interested in seeing it happen, the guy is the modern Edison of our generation
-
基于美国政策补贴和高确信度，看好Intel长期追赶台积电的7倍回报潜力。
$INTC 基本上就是半导体界的 $RKLB（对应 SpaceX），也是我最大的持仓之一。 众所周知，随着 Nvidia 到 Apple 等巨头的支持，它终将赶上 TSM，成为美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。 这只是时间问题。 在 $2340 亿美元市值（$TSM 为 1.5 万亿美元）下，仅凭等待就能获得约 7 倍回报。 无论是 2 年还是 10 年，我坚信 Intel 是市场中罕见的机会：你可以投资白宫，以及用无限印钞机补贴现金消耗型晶圆厂开发。 半导体市场并非赢家通吃，总可寻址市场 (TAM) 将持续增长，$TSM 是很好的长线标的，但当 Intel 产能可用时，从 Google 到 Nvidia 的美国超大规模云服务商将承受使用 Intel 的压力。 美国不会让 Intel 失败，这是基于美国政策的高确信度长线投资。
英文原文
$INTC is basically the $RKLB to SpaceX and is one of my biggest positions. Everyone knows it will catch up to TSM as the de-facto semi arm of the US government with Nvidia to Apple backing it. It’s more of a matter of time. At a $234B MC ( $TSM is $1.5T), ~7X return just for waiting. Whether it’s in 2 years or 10 years, I strongly believe Intel is one of the rare opportunities in the market where you can invest in the White House and infinite money printer subsidizing the cash burning foundry development. It’s not winner takes all, the TAM of semis will keep going up, $TSM is a great long, but US hyperscalers from Google to Nvidia would be pressured to use Intel when available. United States won’t let Intel fail, this is a high conviction long on US policy.
-
看好自杀式无人机板块，认为市值将追随技术演进。
@Nerd_0ne 从 $AVAV 到 $AIRO 的自杀式无人机真的酷毙了。我认为市值最终会跟随技术路线，就像 $RKLB 那样！
英文原文
@Nerd_0ne Kamikaze drones from $AVAV to $AIRO are really cool. I think the marketcaps follow the tech eventually like $RKLB!
-
POET/ALMU因周期极早需等待，建议6个月后建仓POET。
我对 $POET 和 $ALMU 的看法是，输入光互连(InP)的替代方案时间框架在2-3年，即2028-2029年。它们没有超大规模数据中心供应商(hyperscaler)的资质，也不在现代专用集成电路(ASIC)架构中，所以 $POET 提前了6个月，$ALMU 提前了1年。像 $RKLB 这样的散户宠儿通常也提前一年，但如果你等得够久，方向是对的。我可能会在6个月后买入 $POET，$ALMU 则更晚一些，但如果 $AXTI 的情况变得严重，它们可能会加速。所以两者都是很好的多头标的，只是由于处于周期极早期，这是一场等待游戏。
英文原文
My opinion around $POET and $ALMU is that inp workaround is 2-3 year timeframe in 2028-2029. They dont have hyperscaler qualifications and aren’t in modern ASIC architectures, so Poet is 6 months early, $ALMU is 1 year early. Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they’re directionally right if you wait long enough. I’d probably enter $POET in 6 months and $ALMU further out, but if $AXTI situation becomes severe maybe they get fastracked. So both great longs, it’s just a waiting game since it’s extremely extremely early into the cycle
-
看好$FLY因诺斯罗普合作，但执行风险高于$RKLB。
$FLY 是我 2026 年多头持仓的一部分，鉴于其与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop)合作的中程有效载荷发射项目。我确实看好它，但显然最大的风险在于执行层面，而 $RKLB 在此方面历来拥有较高的成功率。我实际上曾发布过关于它的投资论点，只是不像 $SNAP 或其他股票那样经常提及。
英文原文
$FLY is part of my longs for 2026 given medium lift payload launch with Northrop. I do like it but obviously the biggest risk is execution related where $RKLB historically had high success. I actually posted a thesis about it, I just don’t post often about it like $SNAP or others.
-
建仓$OSS，认为其作为边缘AI国防承包商获实战验证，高毛利且被低估。
我建仓了 $OSS。 我通常不说这种话，但这只股票令人兴奋。 市场完全错过了这家市值1.55亿美元的无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇(USV)、边缘AI部署的美国国防部承包商。 他们尤其错过了 OSS 在委内瑞拉入侵行动中的参与，这给 $AVAV 等股票带来了溢价。 在我看来，这看起来像是一个“邪恶”的长线机会： 1. 4100万美元现金（预计）/ 1.55亿美元市值（下行风险低）。 2. 纯动能防御(Pure play Kinetic Defense)标的。 3. 供需比为 1:2.4（因需求旺盛而积压）。 4. 45%的毛利率。 主要兴趣点在于委内瑞拉作为其在美国军队中实际使用的证明： $OSS P-8 海神在委内瑞拉： - 飞行追踪数据证实，第40巡逻中队(VP-40)的 P-8A 海神飞机在突袭期间在委内瑞拉海岸附近，以监控委内瑞拉海军动向。 OSS 关联：2025年7月1日，OSS 宣布了一项500万美元的紧急订单，专门用于为 P-8A 海神交付“61台加固数据单元”。 SOCOM “抓捕小组”： - 抓捕领导层的突袭由美国特种作战司令部(USSOCOM)执行，具体使用了海上插入团队（可能是海豹突击队/SWCC）和第160特种作战航空团（直升机）。 OSS 关联：2025年5月29日，OSS 直接与 USSOCOM 签署了合作研发协议(CRADA)，为海洋环境制造边缘计算机。OSS 为潜入委内瑞拉海岸的隐形船只构建了战斗追踪服务器。 “幽灵舰队”封锁： - “南方长矛行动”目前正在使用无人水面艇（无人机船）封锁油轮。 OSS 关联：海军的“第59特遣队”（以及较新的第4舰队等效部队）在这些无人机上使用 $OSS Rigel 边缘超级计算机，因为它是少数能装入40英尺机器人船的小型AI服务器之一。 这字面意义上是委内瑞拉的实战验证。对于一家市值1.55亿美元的小公司而言。 在之前，每个人都把这家公司当作像 $SMCI 那样的大宗商品（包括我自己），但我完全错过了他们的国防垂直领域（在出售 Bressner 后现在是纯标的）拥有45.6%的毛利率。 直到我再次深入研究后，才意识到他们的另一个部门因为混合毛利率（仅转售国防装备）完全搞乱了毛利计算。 所以现在我们有一个： ~45%毛利率，估值1.55亿美元，拥有4100万美元现金，需求超出供应2.4倍的AI军事承包商。 去年晚些时候我做了一个分析，当时看起来 $OSS 是 Andruil 或 $PLTR 的供应商，并开始爬坡。 再次审视出售后的情况，45%的毛利率使他们进入极其卓越的领域（例如洛克希德·马丁，12-14%）或大宗商品卖家（例如 $SMCI，$DELL 8-14%）。 这是一个经过战争验证的专用防御AI纯标的，用于无人机群、幽灵舰队、USV等，具有极高的毛利率，市值1.55亿美元。 我发现这是一个令人兴奋的重新发现，所以我建仓了。
英文原文
I've initiated a position in $OSS. I usually never say this but, this one is exciting. Markets completely missed this 155M MC Drone Swarm, Ghost Fleet, USVs, Edge AI deploying US DoD contractor. And they especially missed OSS’s involvement in the Venezuela's invasion, that gave premiums to $AVAV and others. This looks like an unholy long to me: 1. $41M cash (pro forma ets.) / $155M MC (low downside risk). 2. Pure play Kinetic Defense 3. 1 : 2.4x supply/demand. (backlogged from high demand) 4. 45% gross margins. The main interest was Venezuela as proof they're actively being used in the US military: $OSS P-8 Poseidon in Venezuela: - Flight tracking data confirmed that P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Patrol Squadron 40 (VP-40) were off the coast of Venezuela during the raid to monitor Venezuelan naval movements. OSS Link: On July 1 2025, OSS announced a $5M urgent order specifically to deliver "61 Rugged Data Units" for the P-8A Poseidon. SOCOM "Capture Team": - The raid to capture leadership was executed by US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), specifically using maritime insertion teams (likely SEALs/SWCC) and the 160th SOAR (helicopters). OSS Link: On May 29, 2025, OSS signed a (CRADA) directly with USSOCOM to build edge computers for Maritime Environments. OSS built the battle-tracking servers for the stealth boats used to slip into the Venezuelan coast. "Ghost Fleet" Blockade: - "Operation Southern Spear" is currently using unmanned surface vessels (drone boats) to block oil tankers. OSS Link: The Navy's "Task Force 59" (and the newer 4th Fleet equivalent) uses the $OSS Rigel Edge Supercomputer for these drones because it is one of the few AI servers small enough to fit on a 40-foot robot boat. This is literally combat validation in Venezuela. Of a small $155M stock. Before everyone treated this company as a commodity like $SMCI (myself included), but I completely missed that their defense vertical (which is pure-play now after the Bressner sale) has 45.6% gross margins. Only after I looked into it again after did I realize their other division was completely messing up margin calculations because of blended margins (from just re-selling defense gear). So now we have a: ~45% margins, AI military contractor valued at $155M business with $41m cash, with demand outstripping supply 2.4 to 1. I did an analysis later last year, which looked like $OSS was a supplier for Andruil or $PLTR, and was beginning their ramp up. Looking at it again post-sale, the 45% margin puts them into extremely stellar territory (compared to eg. Lockheed Martin, 12-14%) or commodity sellers (eg. $SMCI, $DELL 8-14%) This is a specialized war-validated defense AI pure-play for drone swarms, ghost fleets, USVs, and others, with extremely high margins, at $155M MC. I've found this to be an exciting re-discovery, so I've taken a position.
-
建仓$AIRO，看好其低估值及国防无人机订单带来的反弹机会。
我在 $AIRO 上建立了一个头寸，自3天前发布该帖以来已上涨+23%。 尽管 $ONDS 备受炒作，市场似乎仍不了解这只航空航天与国防股票。 这是一家无人机股票，市值约3亿美元，2026年预估收入超1.2亿美元（约2.5倍远期市销率）。 其他同类公司交易倍数为30-40+倍，而像 $AVAV 这样的大公司交易倍数约为9.3倍市销率。 这源于其2025-2026年1.9亿美元的订单指引，减去预估的2025财年约8690万美元及增长部分。 该板块正迎来巨大顺风，来自委内瑞拉/乌克兰的军事冲突以及1万亿美元的国防部国防支出。 $AIRO 已拥有来自北约+乌克兰武装部队的订单积压，包括如 RQ-35 Heidrun 等无人机，专为GPS拒止环境设计（乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突）。 由于其高管团队的历史，存在很大的执行不确定性，但我喜欢以下几点： - 无人机+国防板块变得极其火热 - 该股市销率处于极低水平 - 他们构建的东西很酷，就像我15美元买入 $RKLB 时一样 + 在2025年第三季度，AIRO 因发货延迟严重未达收入预期（报告630万美元 vs 较高预期）。然而，这只是递延收入，股价从30美元跌至10美元，我认为这是一个独特的机会。 这只是一个“淋浴思考”帖，绝非深入尽职调查。关键在于执行，且该股似乎没有任何溢价。 所以，我建仓 $AIRO 只是为了看看它会走向何方。
英文原文
I’ve taken a position in $AIRO and it’s up +23% since this post 3 days ago. Markets still don’t know about this Aerospace & Defense stock, despite $ONDS hype. It’s a drone stock ~$300m MC, with $120m+ est. for 2026 (~2.5 fwd p/s) Others trade at 30-40+ multiples and bigger companies trade at ~9.3 p/s like $AVAV. This stems from their $190M guidance for 2025-2026 bookings subtracted by est. FY 2025 ~$86.9M + growth. There’s a huge tailwind for the sector coming from military conflicts in Venezuela/Ukraine and $1T DoD spending into defense. $AIRO already has order backlog from NATO + Ukraine armed forces for drones like RQ-35 Heidrun, designed for GPS-denied environments (Ukraine - Russia conflicts). There’s a lot of execution uncertainty due to their executive team history, but i like how: - Drone + Defense segment becoming extremely hot -this one trading at extremely low levels of P/S -what they’re building is cool like when I bought $RKLB at $15 + In Q3 2025, AIRO missed revenue expectations badly ($6.3M reported vs. higher expectations) due to shipment delays. However, this is just deferred revenue, the stock dropped from $30 -> $10, I thought this could be a unique opportunity. This is just a shower-thought post, by no means in-depth DD. Name of the game is execution, and this doesn’t seem to have any premiums. So, I’ve taken a position in $AIRO just to see where it goes.
-
回复指出在等权重配置下ONDS与RKLB地位相同。
@blu400_ 等权重配置。所以 $ONDS 和 $RKLB 是一样的。
英文原文
@blu400_ Equal weightings. So $ONDS and $RKLB are the same.
-
FinX社区5天收益超Citadel全年，2025年大幅跑赢机构。
“FinX 对决华尔街”报告 这是 FinX 15，由最受欢迎的标的组成的加权组合： 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% 以下是 FinX 上周的表现： FinX 15 回报率（1周）：11.3% 2025 全年表现： - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater 的 Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK 创新 ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY 指数 = +17.72% - Poinpoint 多策略 = +11.6% - 伯克希尔·哈撒韦 = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% 结论： 仅在 5 个交易日内，FinX 社区就击败了 Citadel 的全年收益。 进入 2026 年，我们正式碾压了机构。
英文原文
"FinX vs Wall Street" report This is FinX 15, a weighted port of the most popular names: 1. $ONDS +33.26% 2. $SKYT +27.46% 3. $TE +22.62% 4. $MU +13.98% 5. $ASTS +13.24% 6. $BMNR +12.24% 7. $IREN +11.19% 8. $CIFR +8.64% 9. $AXTI +7.56% 10. $KRKNF + 7.69% 11. $NBIS +5.93% 12. $POET +5.81% 13. $RKLB +2.67% 14. $HOOD -.31% 15. $ZETA -2.36% Here's how FinX did last week: FinX 15 Return (1-Week): 11.3% For the entire 2025 calendar year: - WallStreetBets = +76.00% - Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha II = +34% - ARKK Innovation ETF = +35.5% - Perishing Square = +25.3% - SPY Index = +17.72% - Poinpoint Multi-Strategy = +11.6% - - Berkshire Hathaway = +11.4% - Millennium Management = +10.5% - Citadel = +10.5% The Bottom Line: In just 5 trading days, the FinX community beat Citadel’s entire year. We are officially smoking the institutions entering 2026
-
2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
-
2026年十大主题投资：聚焦AI供应链瓶颈、软体机器人及支付颠覆。
2026年通讯。 主题投资：演进、颠覆与瓶颈 1. 软体机器人 - 向 $TSLA、$ONDS、波士顿动力演进。 2. 硅光子(SiPh) - 磷化铟(InP)瓶颈 | $AXTI、$LITE、$GOOGL 3. 玻璃基板 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA、$INTC、$TSM 4. 资金流动 - 对 $V、Stripe、$BOA 的颠覆 5. AI云层级 - 瓶颈 | $NBIS、$IREN、$HUT 6. LLM网络安全 - 向 $CRWD、$CSCO、$MSFT 演进 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向 $RKLB、SpaceX、$ASTS 演进 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、$PATH Cognition 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 瓶颈 | $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 瓶颈 | $NVDA (LPU/Groq)、$AMD、$INTC _这是我对从公开信息综合及瓶颈二/三阶效应来看最感兴趣的主题投资的简要概述！_ 1. 软体机器人：向机器人的演进 传统机器人（Optimus、波士顿动力）依赖逆运动学控制刚性关节。软体机器人改变了数学模型。 我们已到达硬件（Optimus、波士顿动力、Figure）与LLM（Gemini、Grok、Opus）相遇的节点，正处于大规模商业化的开端。 通过使用受章鱼触手和人类皮肤启发的材料，机器人正从齿轮转向流体性，以处理极其精细的任务，如像人手一样处理农产品，或为 $ONDS/Andruil 无人机添加类章鱼延伸以拾取极重表面。 这种演进在于跳出思维定势思考机器人能做什么。我记得7年前曾与该领域的斯坦福博士合作，AI在多年研究后开始商业化，因此该领域也是如此。 将类生物流体性添加到刚性机器人中的可能性是无限的，这只是自然演进。 大多数可能是私人公司。 2. 硅光子 - AI基础设施的瓶颈“磷化铟(InP)卡脖子点” 从Blackwell Ultra集群到Google TPU已触及上限，需要光子互连 | 共封装光学(OCS)以实现扩展。 基板：$AXTI（通过Tongmei）和住友（日本）控制全球约60-70%的InP基板市场。 材料：Vital Materials（中国）和AXT等公司控制原材料铟本身的精炼（78%+的供应链）。 如果你是美国科技巨头，你2026年的整个“AI增长故事”取决于由地缘政治对手控制的材料。 唯一可扩展的解决方案是工程绕行，要么实现芯片上光传输，同时减少90%的铟使用，要么使用微小的磷化铟薄片代替大型昂贵晶圆。 瓶颈本身有机会，如AXT、住友。或帮助解决它的公司如 $POET。 3. 玻璃基板 - 解决从 $NVDA 到其他公司的共封装光学(CPO)瓶颈 向玻璃基板的转变本质上是半导体行业对当前材料物理极限的回答。 当前芯片位于有机材料（本质上是专用塑料）制成的基板上。随着芯片变大，如Nvidia巨大的GPU封装，塑料基板会翘曲。 因此，玻璃基板正成为共封装光学(CPO)的行业标准，因为它们解决了光子学中最大的对齐问题。 美国政府已视其为必要，我们看到巨额补贴流向这些公司。 $INTC、三星电子、Absolics（SKC子公司）、DNP等是主要受益者，尤其是随着MRVL和 $AVGO（推动光学开关的玻璃）推进CPO革命。 4. 资金流动 - 对卡网络、银行、交易所和支付的颠覆 几十年来，资金转移一直是“收费公路”业务。每次刷卡，2%到3%的钱流入卡网络（Visa/Mastercard）和发卡行的口袋。 或者从交易所买卖加密货币是0.2-1%。这是历史上最有利可图、“不可杀死”的商业模式。 直到现在。2025年的“天才法案”刚刚将金钱传输许可证或银行特许状交给像 $XRP 这样的公司，赋予了他们王国钥匙。 对我来说并非理论。我恰好正在自己的初创公司与创建V / $PYPL 实时支付网络的人一起从事这项工作。 但基本上，拥有现有MTL或追求银行特许状并利用天才法案及其他技术的公司，现在可以通过在美联储和区块链之上进行结算来绕过传统百分比费用，有效地将基于百分比的费用转化为几美分。 99%的公司会这样做吗？可能不会，因为支付行业的所有利润率都将归零。但我乐意看到。 但基本上，Stripe以11亿美元收购Bridge本应是对现有公司的红色警报，表明1天ACH、 interchange模式、25美元国际转账的日子即将结束。 这扩展到许多其他相邻领域，从低费用颠覆者如 $HOOD、Mercury，一直到稳定币新银行，或制作自己稳定币的公司如 $SOFI。 5. AI云层级 - 超大规模计算瓶颈的解决方案 当超大规模云厂商被困在3-5年的电网互连队列中时，像WULF和IREN这样的矿工今天就拥有即插即用的GW级算力。 这是千载难逢的机会，超大规模云厂商将其现金牛云收入流向小公司。 这里有不同的层级，从Fluidstack、Poolside、Fireworks在GPU编排层，到IREN等公司构建的裸金属层。 然后有成为超大规模云厂商本身，如NBIS拥有物理位置、GPU、软件编排，然后为推理提供简单接口。 这是少数小公司在未来一两年成为AWS或Azure，或被收购（例如GOOGL以47亿美元收购Intersect）的机会。 像NBIS、IREN、CRWV这样的新云，以及像CIFR、WULF、HUT这样的colo玩家（以及私人部门->能源）将受益。 6. LLM网络安全 - 向现代安全和漏洞防御的演进 最近的报告（例如来自Anthropic红队）显示，高级模型如Opus（及未来版本）可以自主扫描开源智能合约，并在几分钟内识别价值数百万美元的“零日”漏洞。 含义：如果AI能在不可变的区块链合约中找到逻辑缺陷，它也能在银行的SWIFT API或电网控制软件中找到缺陷。 同样适用于KYC/AML。像Gemini Nano Banana这样的模型能够创建逼真的图像/视频，人们能够绕过许多程序。 这个领域有很多不性感但具Alpha潜力的事情，如LLM自动化SOC2/PCI DSS合规，代理坐在服务器上，持续监控日志，并自动生成审计所需的证据。 7. 低轨(LEO)太空基础设施 | 向拓展最后疆域的演进 太空是下一个大事情。这并不新鲜。（希望你懂这个笑话）。但从像 $RKLB、SpaceX这样的公司，到解决轨道拥堵或发射节奏瓶颈的公司，再到像ASTS或Starlink这样商业化基础设施的公司，在未来一年呈现许多机会。 因此，像Impulse、Blue Origin、$ASOZF到RKLB、$ASTS这样的公司将受益于整个链条。 8. 消费者代理工作流(50步) - 对消费者劳动力的颠覆，来自Manus、PATH Cognition 这一点很简单，无需解释。但在对就业+成本节约的潜在影响上显而易见。 你如何自动化商务拓展？如何自动化营销？如何自动化软件工程师？ 这超越了ChatGPT的几步回答，直接进入现实世界，AI代理可以在X上漫游，找到合适的人，发送DM，继续对话，并在一个工作流中导致销售电话。 这是“聊天机器人”时代的结束和“行动”时代的开始，取代公司以前需要的所有人。 我尚未看到任何公司大规模做到这一点。拥有这些的公共公司如META并没有呈现最佳敞口。也许是 $PATH 在公共空间。 9. 分布式计算延迟 - 解决AI计算容量紧张的瓶颈 像GOOGL Cloud、MSFT Azure这样的超大规模云厂商已达最大容量。 Elon Musk已经提出分布式计算作为解决此问题的未来（例如，拥有 $TSLA 网络为LLM推理提供计算）。 “Tesla计算云”论点很迷人，但我识别出的最大物理障碍是：推理延迟。 要生成“Token B”，模型必须先生成“Token A”。它不能同时做两者。如果你将一个巨大模型（如Grok-3）拆分到5辆不同的汽车中以适应内存，你必须为每个生成的Token在这些汽车之间发送数据。 因此，如果汽车之间的网络延迟甚至是20ms（5G的乐观估计），而你生成50个Token，你刚刚在计算时间之上添加了1秒的纯“等待时间”（延迟）。在使用NVLink的数据中心中，该等待时间以纳秒计。 同样适用于零售用户拥有的任何备用计算机、GPU等。有数十亿消费级GPU（Teslas、iPhones、游戏PC）90%的时间闲置。 解决推理的“分布式延迟”问题呈现了计算史上最大的套利机会之一。 尚未看到任何公司大规模完成此任务。也许NVIDIA Dynamo、$AKAM、TSLA正在接近。 10. 铜互连寿命延长 - 解决Nvidia和其他公司的瓶颈 既然我们不能拥有无限的InP，我们必须用现有的东西（例如铜）进行工程绕行，所以铜电缆可以做物理上说它不应该做的事，如在不损失信号的情况下跨机架传输224G信号。 行业在InP上遇到了硬性停止，美国在物理上无法开采和精炼足够的InP将数据中心中的每个链接变成光纤。 如果有任何帮助，那就是好事。例如，NVDA对Groq团队和IP的200亿美元“收购雇佣”。LPU更多是关于推理延迟/架构，但它作为副产品解决了铜寿命延长。Groq的整个架构在延迟上击败了Nvidia，因为它拒绝了光学。Groq使用“确定性”网格，依赖芯片之间的直接电气（铜）连接，避免光学开关的“抖动”和转换时间。 像 $ALAB、$CRDO、Groq，或任何能找到用铜绕过光学瓶颈方法的公司将是赢家。 _这里有从私人部门投资到公共部门的众多交易！只是今天即兴写下了我的想法，但乐意稍后详细阐述。 无论如何，我相信这些主题投资中的许多： 从投资InQ瓶颈绕行（$POET）或瓶颈本身（$AXTI）到公共部门的颠覆者（$CRCL）。 到投资铜扩展瓶颈修复（Groq）、银行特许状颠覆者（Mercury）到私人部门的演进公司（Lightmatter、Festo）。 在2026年呈现不对称上行空间。 新年快乐！
英文原文
2026 Newsletter. Thematic Investments: Evolution, Disruption, and Bottlenecks 1. Soft Robotics - Evolution to $TSLA, $ONDS, Boston Dynamics. 2. SiPh - InP Bottleneck | $AXTI, $LITE, $GOOGL 3. Glass Substrates - Bottleneck | $NVDA, $INTC, $TSM 4. Money Movement - Disruption to $V, Stripe, $BOA 5. AI Cloud Layers - Bottleneck | $NBIS, $IREN, $HUT. 6. LLM Cybersecuirty - Evolution to $CRWD, $CSCO, $MSFT 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | Evolution to $RKLB, SpaceX, $ASTS 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, $PATH Cognition 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Bottleneck | $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Bottleneck | $NVDA (LPU/Groq), $AMD, $INTC _ This is an light overview of thematic investments I find the most interesting from a public-information synthesis perspective + second/third-order effects from bottlenecks! _ 1. Soft Robotics: The Evolution to Robotics Traditional robotics (Optimus, Boston Dynamics) relies on Inverse Kinematics to rigid joints. Soft robotics changes the math. We've met the point where hardware (Optimus, Boston Dynamics, Figure) met LLMs (Gemini, Grok, Opus), and we're at the beginning of possible widespread commercialization. By using materials inspired by octopus tentacles and human skin, robots are moving away from gears and toward fluidity to handle extremely delicate tasks like handling produce like the human hand, to picking up extremely heavy surfaces adding Octopus-like extensions to $ONDS/Andruil Drones. The evolution is thinking outside the box in terms of what robotics can do. I remember working with some Stanford PHds in this field like 7 years ago, and it just so happens AI is starting to be commercialized after many years of research. So expected, this field to be as well. Possibilities are limitless adding organism-like fluidity to rigid robotics, this is just the natural evolution. Most of these are prob private companies. _ 2. Silicon Photonics - Bottleneck of the AI Infrastructure "InP Chokepoint" Blackwell Ultra Clusters to Google TPUs have hit the upper wall and requires photonics for interconnects | OCS to scale up. The Substrates: $AXTI (via Tongmei) and Sumitomo (Japan) control roughly 60-70% of the world's InP substrate market. The Materials: Companies like Vital Materials (China) and AXT control the refining of the raw Indium itself (78%+ of supply chain). If you are a US tech giant, your entire "AI Growth Story" for 2026 depends on materials controlled by geopolitical rivals. The only scalable solution is engineering around it, either by delivering light-on-chip, while using 90% less InP or companies that use tiny slivers of Indium Phosphide instead of large, expensive wafers. There's opportunities with the bottleneck itself like AXT, Sumitomo. Or companies that help address it like $POET. _ 3. Glass Substrates - Fixing the Bottleneck for CPOs from $NVDA to others. The shift toward glass substrates is essentially the semiconductor industry’s answer to a physical wall they are hitting with current materials. Current chips sit on a substrate made of organic materials (essentially specialized plastic). As chips get larger, like Nvidia's massive GPU packages, plastic substrates warps. So, glass substrates is becoming the industry standard for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) because they solve the single biggest problem in photonics with alignment. US Government already sees this as a necessity and we've seen huge subsidies funneling down to some of these companies. Companies like $INTC, Samsung Electronics, Absolics (SKC Subsidiary), DNP, and others are the main beneficiaries, especially as MRVL and $AVGO (driving glass for optical switches) move forward with CPO revolution. _ 4. Money Movement - The Disruption to Card Networks, Banking, Exchange, and Payments For decades, moving money has been a "toll road" business. Every time you swiped a card, 2% to 3% of that money vanished into the pockets of the Card Networks (Visa/Mastercard) and Issuing Banks. Or buying/selling crypto from an exchange would be .2-1%. It was the most profitable, "un-killable" business model in history. Until now. The "Genius Act" of 2025 just handed companies like $XRP with Money Transmitter Licenses or Banking Charters the keys to the kingdom. Not really theoretical for me. I happen to be working on this myself at my own startup with some folks who created V / $PYPL's real-time payment networks. But basically companies with existing MTLs or pursuing banking charters leveraging the Genius Act and some other tech can now bypass legacy % fees by doing settlement on top of the Federal Reserve and blockchains, effectively converting percentage-based fees into a few cents. Would 99% companies do it? Probably not since every single margin from across the payment industry would just go to 0. I'd be happy though. But basically Bridge's $1.1B acquisition by Stripe should have been a red-alarm to existing companies that days of 1-Day ACH, interchange models, $25 international transfers, are soon to be over. This extends to many other adjacents from low fee disruptions like $HOOD, Mercury all the way to Stablecoin Neobanks, or companies making their own stablecoins like $SOFI. _ 5. AI Cloud Layers - The Solution to HyperScaler compute Bottleneck While Hyperscalers are stuck in 3-5 year grid interconnection queues, miners like WULF and IREN are sitting on plug-ready GWs today This is the opportunity of a lifetime as hyperscaler funnel their cash cow Cloud revenues down to tiny companies. There's many different layers to this from Fluidstack, Poolside, Fireworks on the GPU orchestration layer, to the bare metal layer that companies like IREN are building. Then there's becoming the hyperscaler themselves like NBIS owning the physical locations, the GPU, software orchestration, and then providing simple interfaces for inference. This is the opportunity for a few small companies to become Amazon Web Service or Microsoft Azure over the next year or two, or get acquired (eg. GOOGL buying Intersect for $4.7B) Neoclouds like NBIS, IREN, CRWV, down to colo plays like CIFR, WULF, HUT (and private sectors -> Energy) stand to benefit. _ 6. LLM Cybersecurity - The Evolution to Modern Security and Vulnerability Defense Recent reports (e.g., from Anthropic's Red Team) showed that advanced models like Opus (and future iterations) could autonomously scan open-source smart contracts and identify "Zero-Day" exploits worth millions of dollars in minutes. The Implication: If an AI can find a logic flaw in a immutable Blockchain contract, it can find a flaw in a bank's SWIFT API or a power grid's control software. Same with KYC/AML. Models like Gemini Nano Banana are able to create realistic images/videos of people and people are able to get past a lot of programs. There's tons of things as an unsexy alpha in this field like LLMs automating away SOC2/PCI dss compliance to agents sitting on a server, continuously monitor logs, and auto-generate the evidence needed for auditors. 7. LEO Space Infrastructure | The Evolution to Expanding into the final frontier. Space is the next big thing. This is not anything new. (hope you got the joke). But anywhere from companies like $RKLB, SpaceX. Companies that fix orbital congestion or launch cadence bottlenecks. To companies that commercialize the infrastructure like ASTS or Starlink present many opportunities over the next year. So companies like Impulse, Blue Origin, $ASOZF to RKLB, $ASTS stand to benefit across the entire chain. 8. Consumer Agentic Workflows (50 Step) - Disruption to the Consumer Workforce, from Manus, PATH Cognition This one is simple and needs no explanation. But largely obvious in potential impact on employment + cost saving. How do you automate away business development? How do you automate away marketing? How do you automate away software engineers? This is going past few step ChatGPT answers and directly in to the real world where an AI agent can roam X, find the right people, DM someone, continue conversations, and lead to a sales call in just one workflow. This is the end of the "Chatbot" era and the beginning of the "Action" era replacing everyone previously required in a company. I haven't quite seen this done at scale yet with any company. Public companies like META that own these, don't really present the best exposure. Maybe $PATH for public space. 9. Distributed Computing Latency - Fixing the Bottleneck for AI Compute Capacity Strains Hyperscalers like GOOGL Cloud, MSFT Azure at max capacity. Elon Musk already floated distributed computing as the future of solving this issue (eg. having networks of $TSLA's providing compute for LLMs for inference). The "Tesla Compute Cloud" thesis is fascinating, but the single biggest physical barrier I've identified is: Inference Latency. Too generate "Token B," the model must first finish generating "Token A." It cannot do both at the same time. If you split a massive model (like Grok-3) across 5 different cars to fit it in memory, you have to send data between those cars for every single token generated. So, if your network latency between cars is even 20ms (optimistic for 5G), and you are generating 50 tokens, you just added 1 full second of pure "waiting time" (latency) on top of the compute time. In a data center using NVLink, that wait time is measured in nanoseconds. Same applies to any spare computer, GPU, and others owned by retail users. And there's billions of consumer GPUs (Teslas, iPhones, Gaming PCs) that sit idle 90% of the time. Solving the "distributed latency" problem for inference presents one of the single greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of computing. Haven't really seen any companies that accomplished this at scale yet. Maybe NVIDIA Dynamo, $AKAM, TSLA, getting a little closer. 10. Copper Interconnect Life Extension - Addressing the Bottlenecks of Nvidia and Others Since we can't have infinite InP, we have to engineer around it with what we have (eg. Copper), so copper cables can do things that physics said it shouldnt like carrying 224G signals across a rack without signal loss. The industry is hitting a hard stop on InP where, US cannot physically cannot mine and refine enough InP to turn every link in a data center into fiber optics. If anything helps, then it's good. EG. NVDA's $20B "Acqui-hire" of Groq's team and IP. LPU is more about inference latency/architecture but it addresses copper life extension as a byproduct. Groq’s entire architecture beat Nvidia on latency because it rejected optics. Groq uses a "deterministic" mesh that relies on direct electrical (copper) connections between chips, avoiding the "jitter" and conversion time of optical switches. Companies like $ALAB, $CRDO, Groq, or anyone who can find ways to engineer around the optical bottleneck with copper will be a winner. _ There are tons of trades from both private sector investments to public! Just wrote up my thoughts on the fly today, but happy to elaborate later. Regardless I believe a lot of these thematic investments from: Investing in InQ Bottleneck Workarounds ( $POET ) or the bottleneck itself ( $AXTI ) to Disruptors ( $CRCL ) in the public sector. To Investing in copper extension bottleneck fixes (Groq), bank charter disruptors (Mercury) to evolutionary companies (Lightmatter, Festo) in the private sector. Present asymmetrical upside in 2026. Happy New Year!
-
作者认为 $CRCL 估值极低，基于其数字美元标准地位，在 $86 大举建仓。
如果 ChatGPT 能结合私人部门稳定币投资经验，撰写 OF 与卡网络之间的对比，我会印象深刻。机构并未对 $31 的价格望而却步，$CRCL 大幅超额认购，且稳定币 GENIUS 法案在 IPO 后通过。如帖中所述，护城河在于其作为结算和数字美元标准的网络效应。尽管可能有 Paxos USD、PayPal USD、SOFI USD 等数百种其他稳定币，但这并不意味着它们能获得广泛采用。USDC 和 USDT 已是双寡头及数字标准。我也提到这是定性论点。对于像 $RKLB 这样非标准公司（如 Circle），我认为不应使用传统估值方法。话虽如此，一家印钞机及数字美元发行商的市值为 $190 亿，被严重低估，我本人在 $86 大举建仓。我只是分享我的论点，你可以自由做反向交易。我鼓励你用行动支持你的观点！
英文原文
I’d be impressed if ChatGPT could write comparisons between OF and card networks alongside personal experiences regarding stablecoin investments in the private sector. Institutions did not balk at $31, $CRCL was vastly oversubscribed and the GENIUS act for stablecoins was passed after IPO. If you read the post, the moat is network effect given its the standard for settlement and digital dollars. There could be hundreds of other stablecoins from Paxos USD, PayPal USD, SOFI USD, and others but that doesn’t mean it will get widespread adoption. USDC and USDT are already the duopoly and digital standard. I also wrote this was the qualitative thesis. On companies like $RKLB that aren’t standard companies (like Circle) I would argue traditional valuation methods shouldn’t be used. That being said, $19B for a money printer and issuer of the currency that’s used for the digital dollar is vastly undervalued and I myself am piling in at $86. I’m just sharing my thesis, you’re free to take the other side of the trade. And I’d encourage you to back up your words!
-
Circle作为美元数字化延伸，具国家安全和网络效应，建议极度做多。
1000%+ 的 Circle 论点：USDC 与私营部门美联储的崛起。 Circle $CRCL，连同 $NBIS 等标的，是我进入 2026 年高确信度的多头持仓，原因只有一个： Circle 已成为美国财政部的私营部门延伸。 在 180 亿美元市值下。 这是一个 10 倍以上的世代性机会，利用美元变得可编程且纯数字化的货币转变。 Circle 不是一家金融科技(Fintech)公司。它不应像传统公司那样被估值。作为数字印钞机，它是美国政府的国家安全利益。 以下是做多 Circle 的定性理由： 1. Circle 购买美国国债并作为美国财政部的私营部门延伸收取利息。 - 随着 USDC 市值扩张，Circle 购买更多短期美国国债。他们正成为世界上最大的单一美国债务持有者之一。 - 在 BRICS 和其他集团试图去美元化的时代，美国政府需要一种数字美元出口。Circle 将美元霸权瞬间传播给全球任何人，绕过当地银行限制。 - Circle 成为对其他外币（低利率或贬值）的有效“做空” -> 将本地货币转换为 Circle (USD) -> 买入美国债务。 对于 $CRCL：美国政府无法承受 Circle 失败。它拥有传统金融科技所没有的隐性“国家支持”战略护城河。 在 180 亿美元的估值下。 2. 网络效应： Circle + USDC 已经捕获了网络效应。 - 现在有数百种稳定币。Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe 以及更多即将推出的。但 Circle + USDC 已经捕获了美国市场的网络效应（USDT 仍在国际上广泛使用）。 现在每个人都用 Circle USDC 结算，无论是 Visa、Stripe、银行还是更多。网络效应是 Meta/Reddit 拥有护城河的原因。也是为什么比特币市值超过 1.5 万亿美元。以及为什么 USDC 不会被新稳定币取代。 USDC 已成为结算、发行和存储的标准，并吞噬了所有以前的结算方法，如 T+2 或更长的 Swift/ACH 轨道。 Circle 在采用和公认的结算基础设施方面确保了终极网络效应。 随着使用量的增长 -> Circle 印更多的钱。 3. 私营到公开的滞后： 很多人不知道，但我私下也帮助硅谷风险投资公司进行尽职调查，针对金融科技种子/A/B 轮投资。 从个人经验来看，我看到创纪录的资金涌入 USDC 相关公司：无论是稳定币新银行（如由 USDC 驱动的 Mecury 银行）还是带有 USDC 的结算基础设施。 当然还有许多关于私营部门收购的公开新闻，例如 Stripe 以 11 亿美元收购 bridge，或银行开始研究 M&A 以创建 USDC 相关产品。 多年前这是 AI，我们看到了从 Anthropic 到 NVDA 在一两年后崛起的成果。 现在是稳定币 + USDC。 公开市场是滞后指标，它们尚未定价 USDC 成为公认结算轨道的必然性（比特币是数字黄金，USDC 是美元/结算）。 我们看到了 Circle 主要因浮动头寸动态而抛售，但我们可能会看到对冲基金试图积累对美元未来印钞机的控制权。 _ $CRCL 不仅仅是一只“加密股票”或“金融科技公司”，也不应像它们那样被估值（尤其是根据降息定价盈利能力）。 它基本上是美国美元的私营部门数字化。 自 GENIUS 法案以来，我们看到像 Circle 这样的公司申请特许状，并将 USDC 有效地连接到联邦储备系统。 现在我们终于看到了新的央行数字货币(CBDC) 的开始，但这次是通过 Circle 发行和私有化。 在 $84（180 亿美元市值）极度做多 Circle，作为地缘政治工具、标准结算货币以及美国财政部的私营部门延伸。
英文原文
The 1000%+ Circle Thesis: USDC and the Rise of a Private-Sector Federal Reserve. Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026 for one reason: Circle has become the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. At a $18B MC. A 10x+ generational opportunity capitalizing on the monetary shift on the Dollar becoming programmable and purely digital. Circle is not a fintech company. It shouldn't be valued like a traditional one. It's a national security interest of the US Government as the digital money printer. Here's the qualitative reasons to long Circle: 1. Circle Buys US Debt and collects interest as the private-sector extension of the US Treasury. - As USDC market cap expands, Circle buys more short-dated US Treasuries. They are becoming one of the largest single holders of US debt in the world. - In an era where BRICS and other blocs are trying to de-dollarize, the US government needs a digital dollar export. Circle spreads USD hegemony instantly to anyone globally, bypassing local banking restrictions. - Circle becomes an effective "short" against other foreign currencies (with low interest or devaluation) -> convert local currencies to Circle (USD) -> buy into the US debt. For $CRCL: The US government cannot afford to let Circle fail. It has an implicit "state-backed" strategic moat that traditional fintechs do not have. At an $18B valuation. 2. Network effect: Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect. - There's hundreds of stablecoins now. Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe, and many more to come. But Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect for the US markets (USDT, is still widely used internationally). Everyone settles with Circle USDC now, whether that's Visa, Stripe, Banks, or more. The network effect is why Meta/Reddit have their moats. Or why Bitcoin has a 1.5T+ market cap. And exactly why USDC won't be displaced by new stablecoins. USDC has already become the standard for settlement, issuance, storage, and cannibalizes all former settlement methods from T+2 or more rails such as Swift/ACH. Circle has secured the ultimate network effect both in adoption + agreed upon settlement infrastructure. With this, as more usage grows -> Circle prints more money. 3. The Private-to-Public Lag: Lot of people don't know but I help SV venture capital firms with DD as well for fintech Seed/Series A/B type investments on the side. From personal experience, I've seen a record breaking amount of funding pour into USDC-related companies: whether that's Stablecoin Neobanks (banks like Mecury, just powered by USDC) or settlement infrastructure with USDC. And of course many public-news about private sector acquisitions such as Stripe acquisition of bridge for $1.1B or Banks starting to look into M&A to create USDC related products. Many years ago this was AI and we've seen it come into fruition from Anthropic to NVDA's rise a year or two later. Now it's stablecoins + USDC. Public markets are lagging indicators and they haven't priced in the inevitability of USDC becoming the agreed upon settlement rail (Bitcoin for digital gold, USDC for USD/settlement). We've seen a selloff of Circle mainly due to float dynamics, but we'll likely see hedge funds try and accumulate control of the future money printer of the USD. _ $CRCL isn't just a "crypto stock" or "fintech company" and shouldn't be valued like one (especially pricing profitability from interest rates cuts). It's basically the private sector digitization of the US dollar. Ever since the GENIUS act, we're seeing companies like Circle file for charters, and effectively connect USDC into the federal reserve system. And now we're finally seeing the start of a new Central Bank Digital Currency, but this time issued and privatized through Circle. Go extraordinarily long on Circle at $84 ($18B MC) as both a geopolitical instrument, standard settlement currency, and as the private sector extension of US Treasury.
-
比较一组高增长标的的高估和低估程度
所以我会说，$RKLB 现在肯定是最被高估的。 $LITE 正接近超买区间，但考虑到它在 TPUv7、Trainium 和 Blackwell 芯片中的关键性，它确实值得重估。 $NBIS 和 $CRCL 是这组里最被低估的，然后是 $ALAB。
英文原文
So I’d say $RKLB is definitely the most overvalued right now. $LITE is edging toward the overbought territory but it definitely warrants a re-rating given how critical it is in TPUv7, Trainium, and Blackwell chips. $NBIS and $CRCL are most undervalued out of the bunch, then goes $ALAB.
-
列出更稳的十倍股和小盘 moonshot
如果说“更安全”的 10 倍股，我会说未来 5 年是 $RKLB 和 $NBIS。 我完全能想象 Rocket Lab 有一天到 3000 亿美元估值，Nebius 到 2000 亿美元估值。 市值越小，10 倍概率越高（比如低于 20 亿美元）。显然，对 $HOOD 这类公司来说，一年翻倍要难得多。 但在小盘股里，$AAOI、$WLAC 和 $TE 是我喜欢小仓位参与的那类 moonshot。
英文原文
So for a “safer” 10x. I’d say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Rocketlab at $300B valuation and Nebius at $200B one day. The chance of a 10x increases the smaller marketcap they are (eg. Sub $2B), and it’s obviously much harder for companies like $HOOD to double in a year. But for smaller caps, $AAOI, $WLAC, and $TE are those types of moonshots I like to dabble in.
-
公布 2026 年五只高信念多倍股
我在个人组合的极端增长高信念篮子里新增了 2 只股票。 在更长时间框架上，我对高信念股票从来没错过（比如 $HOOD 从 18 美元到 100+ 美元）。 我 2026 年的 5 只高信念多倍股现在是： $NBIS - AI 算力和 Robotaxi $RKLB - 太空 $ALAB - 连接 新增的两只是： $CRCL - 印钞机 $LITE - hyperscaler ASIC 我后面会写 Circle 和 Lite 的更长 DD thesis。 我有信心，只持有这 5 只，就会大幅跑赢 99.9% 的组合。
英文原文
I’ve added 2 new stocks to my extreme growth high conviction basket in my personal portfolio. I’ve never been wrong before about high conviction stocks on longer timeframes (eg. $HOOD $18 -> $100+) My 5 high conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026 are now: $NBIS - AI Compute and Robotaxis $RKLB - Space $ALAB - Connectivity And the two new ones are: $CRCL - Money Printer $LITE - Hyperscaler ASICs I’ll do longer DD thesis on Circle and Lite on follow ups. I’m confident having just these 5 will heavily outperform 99.9% of portfolios.
-
认为近期抛售来自套息交易解除，中期降息利好风险资产
我的观点和之前一样。最近这轮抛售，是日本央行加息和美联储降息后重新建立仓位，再引发套息交易解除。 短期来看，套息交易解除的影响比三次降息大得多。 现在我们已经看到了这轮抛售的结果。 但 12 月 10 日的美联储降息，对 $RKLB 到 $NBIS 这类风险资产的中期，比如未来 3 个月，是极其利多的，尤其是在它们基本面还在增长的情况下。
英文原文
I’ve held the same view as before. Recent selloff is carry trade unwind from reload after boj hike and fed rate cut. Carry trade unwind is much more impactful than 3x rate cut near term. And now we’ve seen the result of that selloff. But Dec 10ths fed rate cut is incredibly bullish for risk assets from $RKlB to $NBIS medium term like 3 months out, especially when they have growing fundamentals.
-
用 AMD/PLTR/RKLB 历史说明 thesis 未变时应给时间
同意，而且我已经反复见过这种情况。 2016 年的 $AMD，当时人们觉得它能挑战 Intel，后来在 5 美元附近投降。 2023 年的 $PLTR，当时人们相信 AI thesis，后来在做空者活动之后，在十几美元投降。 今年的 $RKLB，当时人们觉得它在 18 美元可能成为下一个 SpaceX，后来在低目标价之后投降。 当你看到很多散户最爱的名字，比如 $BTC、$NBIS、$IREN、$RKLB、$CIFR、$ASTS、$ALAB、$CRCL、$HOOD、$SOFI 等，从历史高位回落时，看看历史案例是有帮助的。 很多时候，当 FinX 因为大家讨论 $NBIS 可能成为下一个 AI 版 AWS，或 $ASTS 可能成为卫星蜂窝领域的下一个 Starlink，而形成所谓“泡沫”时，如果唯一变化的是股价，而不是 thesis，那就给它时间兑现。
英文原文
Agreed and I've seen it time and time again. $AMD in 2016 when people thought it could take on Intel, then capitulation at $5. $PLTR in 2023 when people believed in the AI thesis, then capitulation in the $10's after short seller activity. $RKLB this yeare when people thought it could become the next SpaceX at $18. Then capitulation after low PTs. When you see a lot of retail favorites like $BTC, $NBIS, $IREN, $RKLB, $CIFR, $ASTS, $ALAB, $CRCL, $HOOD, $SOFI, and others dropping from ATHs, it's good to see examples from history. And many of times, when finx forms a "bubble" from discussion that $NBIS is likely to become the next AWS for AI, or $ASTS has the potential to be the next starlink for satellite cellular. If the only thing that's changed is the stock price and not the thesis, give it time to play out.
-
周五科技股崩盘但作者认为散户方向长期正确，类似TSM/MU历史将重演
接飞刀还是抄底？ Oracle和Broadcom财报之后，周五股市对投资者来说简直是残酷的一天。 仅一天内大跌的热门FinX股票： $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% 我通常会对每只股票做更多点评，但这次真的是太震撼了。像$FRMI因为租户流失/融资问题下跌还能理解，但其他一些就很难解释了。 $NBIS现在比政府、$MSFT和$META交易后还要低，$AVGO在$GOOGL TPU加速生产后却经历了史上最大跌幅之一。 你们周一在关注或买入什么？ （该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）： FinX是个泡沫。 r/wallstreetbets上的交易员也一样。 人们持有相同的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA等。 然而：这其实是一件好事。 这些年来我见过这种情况反复上演。 短期来看，当人们买1-3个月到期的期权时，他们会在这些"泡沫化"且拥挤的交易中亏钱。 长期来看，一年后，散户对这些公司的方向判断是对的。 而这才是最重要的部分。 以$TSM（140-150美元）为例，一两年前当$NVDA最初崛起时，它曾是Reddit上最热门的股票代码。 散户的方向判断是对的，因为$TSM是整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心。 短期来看，由于买入2个月后到期的看涨期权，股价停滞甚至跌至127美元，每个人都亏了钱。 一年后股价涨幅超过100%+，所有那些看涨期权本来可以涨10倍。 $MU也是一样。Reddit知道内存是人工智能繁荣的重要组成部分，于是在同一笔交易上扎堆。 然而$MU在100美元停滞了一整年，每个人都亏了钱。 时间快进到现在，从美光到SK海力士，内存是最热门的东西，从65美元飙升至245美元，涨幅超过200%。散户方向判断对了，但最终被迫止损离场。 我坚信像$NBIS这样的股票，我们正处于散户买了太多短期期权、像当初$TSM或$MU那样被迫止损持有股票的那个时期。 然而时间快进一年，这可能就像$TSM、$MU或$HOOD（在18美元时）那样散户方向一直正确、却获得3-4倍回报的情况。 我确信FinX散户股票"泡沫"在短期内可能判断不正确——在那个时间框架内，未平仓合约、宏观波动率和做市商主导着市场——但长期来看方向判断是对的。
英文原文
Falling Knife or Dip Buy? What a brutal Friday for stocks after $ORCL and $AVGO earnings. Popular FinX names that dropped in just 1 day: $FRMI | -34.1% $SNDK | -15.89% $SEI | -15.3% $OKLO | -15.13% $MOD | -14.67% $ALAB | -14.31% $FLNC | -13.96% $LITE | -12.83% $GLXY | -11.73% $AAOI | -11.73% $AVGO | -11.43% $RMBS | -11.11% $CRWV | -10.06% $GLXY | -10.42% $EOSE | -9.73% $CIFR | -9.69% $APLD | -9.43% $WULF | -9.48% $BMNR | -9.17% $LGN | -8.86% $IREN | -8.79% $TSSI | -8.67% $NBIS | -6.99% I usually add more commentary on each stock, but it's been pretty incredible to watch. Things like $FRMI makes sense on losing tenants/funding but as for others. $NBIS is now lower than post Gov, $MSFT, and $META deals & $AVGO just had one of its largest drops in history even after $GOOGL TPU ramp. What are you watching or buying on Monday?
-
用 RKLB 说明散户缺乏耐心，机构买入后才上涨
@RKLBMan WSB 上所有人都在 $RKLB 从 13 到 30 美元时参与过，后来它在 20-30 美元之间停住，机构又给出 13 美元目标价时，大家就放弃了。 现在机构买上去之后，它已经 50 美元以上了。人们真的没什么耐心，哈哈。
英文原文
@RKLBMan Everyone on WSB was in on $RKLB at $13-> $30 then gave up when it stalled between $20-$30 and institutions were giving it like $13 PTs. Now it’s $50+ after institutions bought it up, people just don’t have the patience lol.
-
认为 FinX 散户泡沫短期拥挤但长期方向常常正确
FinX 是泡沫。/r/wallstreetbets 上的交易员也是。 人们都持有同样的股票：$NBIS、$TE、$ASTS、$HOOD、$RKLB、$IREN、$KRKNF、$ONDS、$SOFI、$AMD、$TSLA 等。 但是：这是好事。 这些年我一遍又一遍看到这种情况。 短期看，当人们买 1-3 个月期权时，他们会在这些“泡沫化”和拥挤交易里亏钱。 但从一年后的长期看，散户对这些公司的方向判断往往是对的。 这才是最重要的部分。 例如，一两年前 $NVDA 刚起飞时，$TSM（140-150 美元）是 Reddit 上最热门的 ticker。 散户方向上看对了，因为 $TSM 是整个 AI 建设的中心。 短期里，所有人都亏钱了，因为他们买了两个月后的 call，而股票横盘，甚至跌到 127 美元。 一年后，它涨了 100%+，那些 call 本来会涨 10 倍。 $MU 也一样。Reddit 知道内存是 AI 热潮的重要组成部分，于是都挤进同一笔交易。 但 $MU 在 100 美元横盘了一整年，大家都亏钱了。 快进到现在，从 Micron 到 SK 海力士，内存成了最热门的东西，股价从 65 美元冲到 245 美元，涨了 200%+。 散户方向上是对的，但中途投降了。 我确信，像 $NBIS 这样的股票，现在正处于散户买了太多短期期权，然后像当年 $TSM 或 $MU 下跌时那样，连股票也一起投降的阶段。 但快进一年，这可能就是 $TSM、$MU 或 $HOOD（18 美元时）那种 3-4 倍回报，当初散户方向其实一直是对的。 我相信 FinX 散户股票“泡沫”在较短时间框架里未必正确，因为 OI、宏观波动和做市商会主导价格；但长期方向上往往是对的。
英文原文
FinX is a bubble. Same with traders on /r/wallstreetbets. People own the same stocks $NBIS, $TE, $ASTS, $HOOD, $RKLB, $IREN, $KRKNF, $ONDS, $SOFI, $AMD, $TSLA and others. However: It’s a positive thing. I’ve seen this on repeat again and again throughout the years. Short term when people buy 1-3 months options, they lose money on these “bubbly” and crowded trades. Long term 1 year later, retail gets these companies directionally right. And this is the most important part. For example, $TSM ($140-$150) was the most popular ticker a year or two ago on Reddit when $NVDA was initially taking off back. Retail got this directionally right, because $TSM was the center of all AI buildout. Short term, everyone lost money because they bought calls for 2M out and the stock stalled and even dropped to $127. One year later it’s up over 100%+ and all those calls would have 10x’ed. Same with $MU. Reddit knew memory was a huge part of the AI boom and piled in on the same trade. Yet $MU stalled at $100 for an entire year and everyone lost money. Fast forward, memory from Micron to Sk Hynix is the hottest thing now and shot up 200%+ from $65 to $245 . Retail got this right directionally right but capitulated. I’m convinced on stocks like $NBIS that we’re in the period of time where retail bought too many short dated calls and are capitulating with shares like the drops on $TSM or $MU. However fast forward a year, this might be that 3x-4x return like $TSM or $MU or $HOOD (at $18) where retail was directionally right all along. I’m confident Finx Retail stock “bubbles” might not be right in shorter timeframes - where OI, macro volatility, and MMs dominate - but are right directionally long term.
-
博主披露核心及轮动持仓，并解释转向方向性评论的原因。
核心持仓是高确信度的多头：$BTC、$RKLB、$HOOD、$NBIS、$ALAB、$TSM。可能将 $LITE 和 $CRCL 移入上述核心多头组合，但它们是我正在建仓的新头寸。然后是短期至中期混合持仓，如 $SNAP、$CIFR、$RDDT、$SMCI、$HIMS、$TE、$LTC、$KRUS、AMKR、$LITE、$FLY、$WLAC、$META、$AMZN、$TTD 以及现在的 $AAOI 等。我在短期至中期持仓之间进行大量轮动。我以前发布更多关于日内交易的内容，但最终在这里获得了太多粉丝，所以想转向方向性评论。发布头寸更新很难，因为我喜欢解释我这样做的原因！我记得在 $IREN 约 50-60 美元时卖出，结果在接下来的三周里收到了一堆恶评 lol
英文原文
Core portfolio is high conviction longs: $BTC, $RKLB, $HOOD, $NBIS, $ALAB, $TSM Probably moving $LITE and $CRCL to the core long port above, but they’re newer positions that I’m building up. Then short-mid term mix like $SNAP, $CIFR, $RDDT, $SMCI, $HIMS, $TE, $LTC, $KRUS, AMKR, $LITE, $FLY, $WLAC, $META, $AMZN, $TTD, and now $AAOI etc. I rotate between short-medium term holds A LOT. I used to post more day trading stuff but I ended up getting too many followers here, so wanted to switch to directional commentary. It’s hard to post position updates because I like to explain why I do things! I remember selling $IREN around $50-$60 or something and just got a bunch of hate comments for the next three weeks lol
-
分析NBIS受ATM及空头压制，但基本面强劲且机构增持，高波动需耐心持有。
就我个人对 $NBIS 的观察来看，其表现主要受定向增发(ATM)抛压、板块拖累、短期空头以及19日到期的巨额未平仓合约影响。例如，$CRWV 昨日上涨5.13%，而 $NBIS 同日下跌3.91%，我认为这归因于空头或ATM操作。有些令人遗憾，尽管 $NBIS 是降息的最大受益者（新云(neocloud)板块），但今天下跌2%，而其他散户宠儿如 $RKLB 却上涨8%+。价格走势有时会让你自我怀疑，但即使有10%的稀释，也改变不了你提到的事实：Nebius 2026年底年化经常性收入(ARR)中值为80亿美元，与Avride推出了Robotaxis，与 $META 达成30亿美元交易，Clickhouse增长极快，另外两家子公司同比增长100%，其中Toloka受益于 $META 的Scale收购。机构持股比例目前可能接近52%（上月彭博终端显示50%多，MSCI调整前），较上季度的30%多高，机构确实在从投降的散户手中收购股份。此时持有很痛苦，但请记住作为市场上最高贝塔(beta)股票之一，它在一周内可能波动35%。（在2-3周内从100美元到140美元到95美元再到130美元）。
英文原文
So from what I've seen personally with $NBIS, it's largely ATM overhang + sector drag + short term shorts, and large amounts of open interest expiring on the 19th. For example, $CRWV was up 5.13% yesterday, while $NBIS was down 3.91% same day, and I'd attribute that to either shorts/ATMs. It's a little unfortunate, even as the largest beneficiary of rate cuts (neocloud sector), $NBIS is down 2% today while other retail favorites like $RKLB are up 8%+. Price action makes you doubt yourself sometimes, but even with 10% dilution, it doesn't really change the fact as you mentioned Nebius has $8B midpoint ARR EOY 2026, they launched Robotaxis with Avride, $META $3B deal, Clickhouse is growing incredibly fast, and their other two subsidaries are growing 100% Y/Y with Toloka benefiting from $META Scale acquisition. Institutional ownership is now probably closer to 52%(bloomberg terminal 50's last month pre msci) from high 30's last quarter and institutions are definitely acquiring shares from retail capitulating. Painful hold at this point, but keep in mind it can move 35% on a random week as one of the highest beta stocks in the market. (went from $100 to $140 to $95 to $130 in the span of 2-3 weeks).
-
美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。
美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级： 强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释： 今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。 然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。 强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。 话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。 三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。 买入评级： 文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入 回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。
英文原文
Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.
-
更新持仓表现，计划逢高加仓AMKR/SMCI，等待LITE回调。
持仓更新： 持有高确信度的多头头寸如 $NBIS 并卖出期权，周末相对轻松。 上周小幅加仓更新： $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite 受益于 $NVDA Blackwell 和 $GOOGL v7 TPU 的产能爬坡。 $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 受益于美国关于与 $TSM 建厂的政策。 $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$210.3亿 （明年营收同比增长60%，季度积压订单延迟导致的40%跌幅是不合理的）。 $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 除了 $CRWV 再融资20亿美元并拖累其他 Neoclouds，以及华纳兄弟1080亿美元 Paramount 收购案风波外，没看到太多新闻。 可能会在 $AMKR 和 $SMCI 上逢高加仓，等待 $LITE 更深幅度的回调。
英文原文
Stock position updates: Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend. Minor position adds updates from last week: $LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91 Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup $AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) ~$44.5 Benefits from US-policy regarding Fab with $TSM. $SMCI - ~$32.92 (+5.97%) ~$21.03B (60% Y/Y revenue growth going into next year, the 40% drop for quarter backlog delay was unwarranted). $TTD - $38.6 (+3.78%) ~$40.6 Haven't seen too much news aside from $CRWV raising another $2B and tanking other Neoclouds. Or the $108B Paramount bid drama for Warner. Probably going to cost average up on $AMKR, $SMCI, waiting on a deeper drops for $LITE.
-
看好RKLB与NBIS，认为市场低估了这两家行业第二梯队的成长潜力。
市场正在错误定价地球上最大板块中的第二梯队玩家。 我对 $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 的论点： 1. 太空领域 ($RKLB) -> SpaceX 估值刚从 $350B 升至 $800B。Rocketlab 将从 $26B 增长至 SpaceX 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题。 2. 自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxis) ($NBIS) Waymo 在一年内从 $45B 涨至 $200B。$NBIS Avride 将从 $6B 增长至 Waymo 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题，无论是一年还是四年后。 关于 $NBIS 的关键点是：Avride 只是其众多子公司之一，仅这一家公司在两年内的价值就可能超过当前的整体市值。 市场和空头都错误定价了这样一个事实：Nebius 拥有地球上增长最快、最热门的板块公司，且全部实现 100%+ 的同比增长。 做多 $RKLB，做多 $NBIS。
英文原文
The market is mispricing the #2 players in the biggest sectors on Earth. My thesis on $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 1. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B It's just a matter of time. 2. Robotaxis ( $NBIS ) Waymo went from $45B → $200B in 1 year. $NBIS Avride is going to grow into Waymo's previous valuation from $6B. It's just a matter of time, whether that's 1 year or 4 years from now. And here is the thing with $NBIS: Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years. Both the market and short sellers misprice the fact that Nebius owns the fastest growing and hottest sector companies on Earth, all growing 100%+ Y/Y. Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS.
-
RKLB有望追赶SpaceX获10倍回报，Avride有望追赶Waymo。
@RKLBMan @Hedgeye 是的，我对 $RKLB 的投资论点(Thesis)是，它会在合理的时间内（例如5到7年）追赶上 SpaceX，而 SpaceX 上一轮的估值为3500亿美元，这意味着超过10倍的回报。 我对 Avride 持有相同的论点，它可能会在两三年内追赶上 Waymo 在2024年450亿美元的估值。
英文原文
@RKLBMan @Hedgeye yeah my thesis in $RKLB was that it will catch up to SpaceX in a due amount of time (eg. 5, 7 years) and SpaceX's last valuation was $350B, so that's 10x+ return. Same thesis for Avride, will catch up to Waymo's $45B valuation back in 2024, maybe in two-three years.
-
上调TTD至买入评级，认为其估值合理且具价值，目标价50美元。
将 $TTD 评级上调至买入，目标价 $38.6（年初至今跌幅 -67.5%）。 The Trade Desk 定价合理——目前略微被低估。 毛利率 78.1%，2025 财年营收约 29 亿美元，同比增长 18%，自由现金流(FCF) 利润率 25%。 现金 18 亿美元，无债务，客户留存率 95%，并有 10 亿美元回购以抵消大额基于股票的薪酬。市值 186.7 亿美元。 这肯定不像之前提到的那样是超高速增长股，但它具有良好的价值。基本面是在放缓，而非消亡。 鉴于 7.35 亿美元自由现金流、12% 的同比增长率以及折现率，我将公允价值定在 48-55 美元区间。 我认为随着 12 月中旬年底税务收割(tax harvesting)停止，股价将在约 4 个月内恢复至 50 美元，当前水平下有约 31.6% 的上行空间。
英文原文
Upgrading $TTD to a buy at $38.6 (-67.5% YTD) The Trade Desk is reasonably priced-slightly undervalued here. 78.1% gross margins, ~2.9B FY revenue 2025, 18% y/y growth, 25% FCF margins. $1.8B cash, no debt,, 95% customer retention, and $1B in buybacks to offset large stock based compensation. At a $18.67B marketcap. Definitely not a hyper growth stock like the earlier mention, but it has good value. Fundamentals are slowing, not dying. I put fair value in $48-$55 range given dcf of $735m fcf, 12% y/y growth, and a discount rate. I see it recovering to $50, ~31.6% upside at these levels within ~4 months, when EOY tax harvesting stops mid December.
-
作者惊叹某公司收入及子公司增速创纪录，远超Uber等巨头。
我是高增长公司的早期投资者。 $RKLB 用于太空领域。 $HOOD 用于金融科技。 $CRDO 用于连接技术。 但我从未 从未，真的从未 见过一家公司的前瞻性收入同比增长超过 700%。 同时拥有 4 家高增长子公司，每家都在同步实现超过 100% 的同比增长。 https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O
英文原文
I'm an early investor in hyper-growth companies. $RKLB for space. $HOOD for fintech. $CRDO for connectivity. But I've never ever, Ever seen a company grow forward revenue: 700%+ Y/Y. and while owning 4 hyper growth subsidiaries concurrently scaling >100% Y/Y each. https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O
-
谷歌太空数据中心项目利好 Planet Labs 及发射商 Rocket Lab。
谷歌($GOOGL) CEO 近日发布：Project Suncatcher 项目，计划于 2027 年在太空建立数据中心。下一代张量处理单元(TPU)将运行在太阳能卫星星座上，以扩展机器学习(ML)流程。最大的受益者是谁？Planet Labs ($PL) 以及衍生的 $RKLB 和 SpaceX。Planet Labs 是一家鲜为人知的小市值($35亿)太空公司，凭借此交易拥有巨大上行空间。Planet Labs 将为谷歌部署两颗原型卫星，目标是在 2027 年初发射。$PL 使用的发射服务商是 $RKLB（分别于 2018 年 1 月和 2020 年 10 月）和 SpaceX。其中一家（Rocket Lab）让人想起我最高确信度的多头持仓。对于 $PL 而言，收入可能在 1000 万至 4000 万美元的小范围内。但如果原型机顺利，完整的星座将带来 2.5 亿至 10 亿美元以上（且规模效应下更多）的收入。你搭上 $GOOGL 供应商列车了吗？
英文原文
Google ( $GOOGL ) CEO recently unveiled: Project Suncatcher, a project to create datacenters in space in 2027. Next generation TPUs will run on solar-powered satellite constellations to scale ML flows. The biggest beneficiary? Planet Labs ( $PL ) and by derivative $RKLB and SpaceX. Planet Labs, a lesser known, small cap $3.5B space company, has huge upside with this deal. Planet labs will deploy two prototype satellites for Google, targeting a launch by early 2027. The launch providers that $PL uses are $RKLB (January 2018 and October 2020) and SpaceX. One of which (Rocketlab) reminds one of my highest conviction longs. For $PL revenue is likely in the small $10-$40M range. But a full constellation would bring in $250 million to $1 billion+ (and more at scale) if the prototype goes well. Are you riding the $GOOGL supplier train?
-
博主复盘整体盈利，详述NBIS、META等持仓盈亏及FLY长期逻辑。
总体来看我盈利颇丰。我刚才指的是上个月，当时像 $NBIS 这样的许多收益都被抹平了。 目前我在 $NBIS 上的持仓成本平均在 90 多美元，这让我感到意外。 $META 在最近几次看涨期权（option calls）交易中的成本均价为 640 美元，但由于我做了看涨期权，该头寸目前亏损六位数。 但我曾在 3000 美元时买入 $BTC，在 14 美元左右买入 $RKLB，在 20 美元时买入 $HOOD。 关于 $FLY，正如我之前的论点所述，这是基于 2026/2027 年中型有效载荷（medium-lift payloads）催化剂的投资。无论短期股价如何波动，都不会改变中型载荷是否研发成功的事实。 如果一年后他们最终未能研发出中型载荷且股价崩盘，你可以嘲笑我。
英文原文
Overall I'm up a lot. I was just referring to this past month where many of my gains like $NBIS were wiped out. I'm below cost average right now on $NBIS in the $90s, which was surprising. $META was $640 cost average on recent calls but I'm down 6 figures on that position since I did option calls. But I bought stuff like $BTC at $3k, $RKLB around $14 and $HOOD at $20. On $FLY as I said before in my thesis, it was a 2026/2027 catalyst play on medium-lift payloads. Whatever the stock price short term doesn't really change whether medium-lift developed. You can laugh at it if in a year if they end up failing to develop medium lift and stock price craters.
-
高确信度组合本月回撤，预期12月降息后反弹创新高。
@itsdsha 只能说，对于我高确信度组合中的 $ALAB、$HOOD、$IBIT、$META、$NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 来说，这一个月确实不好过。预计随着12月降息落地，一个月后情况会好转。大多数短期保证金/期权交易者已被清算，而此类事件往往推动市场创出新高 https://t.co/YCzLLaArKa
英文原文
@itsdsha Let's just say it hasn't been a fun month for my high conviction port of $ALAB, $HOOD, $IBIT, $META, $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM for sure. Should be fine in a month come Dec rate cut. Most short term margin/option traders got liquidated, and events like these lead to higher highs https://t.co/YCzLLaArKa
-
深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
-
RKLB长期看好但短期因商业化延迟被高估，需耐心持有。
我可能是 $RKLB 最大的多头之一，它与比特币是我最高确信度的5年期长线持仓。自SpaceX最近的估值/能力以来，我一直维持3500亿-5000亿美元的长期目标价，因为太空领域可能并非赢家通吃。 话虽如此，我最近一直认为它有点被高估（回到60美元时），主要是因为缺乏Neutron/flatlite的商业化，这可能要等到2028-2029年，鉴于当前的营收数据，我们稍微有点早。但只要你等待足够长的时间，它总是一个不错的买入机会。 市场计入的是远期增长，但关键在于这个“未来”有多远（例如对于Rocketlab，就像Snapchat、Nebius一样，其实并不遥远）。
英文原文
I’m probably one of the biggest $RKLB bulls and it’s my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. I’ve maintained $350B-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities since it’s likely not winner takes all in space. That being said I’ve maintained recently it is kinda overvalued (back at $60) just due to lack of Neutron/flatlite commercialization which is likely 2028-2029, and we’re a tad early given current revenue numbers. But always a good buy if you just wait long enough. Market prices in forward growth but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab (eg. With Snapchat, Nebius, it’s not that far).
-
博主回顾过往交易盈亏，并列出近期市场下跌中的买入标的。
感谢在 $RDDT 上关注我！想到自己曾从温迪（Wendy's）快餐店垃圾桶旁起步，深感荣幸与谦卑。 许多卖出操作如 $CRCL、$BMNR、$RGTI 最终都兑现了收益。随着市场下跌，大量买入机会如 $NBIS、$SNAP、$META、$RDDT、$ALAB、$IBIT、$WULF、$CIFR、$RKLB、$WLAC 或 $TSM 目前出现。 我需要跟进许多标的，本周我会再发一篇类似帖子。
英文原文
Thanks for following me on $RDDT! Very humbled by my regarded roots behind the Wendys dumpsters. Lot of the sells like $CRCL, $BMNR, $RGTI finally played out. Tons of buys like $NBIS, $SNAP, $META, $RDDT, $ALAB, $IBIT, $WULF, $CIFR, $RKLB, $WLAC, or $TSM right now from the market drop. I need to catchup on a lot of names and I'll make another post like that this week.
-
看好美股基本面改善，逢低买入，若业绩不及预期则退出。
@platochi 的观点也很有道理。当然没有唯一正确的答案，但我核心的逻辑是基本面正在改善（前瞻盈利、利润率、增长），从 $GOOG、$AMZN 等超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)到 $HOOD、$RKLB 等成长股，全线受益。如果公司开始像 $FISV 那样不及预期并下调指引（当然可能没那么夸张 lol），那我就会考虑退出市场，而不是逢低买入。
英文原文
@platochi has a valid thesis too. There's not one correct one for sure, but my core reasoning is that there's improving fundamentals (forward earnings, margins, growth), across the board from hyperscalers like $GOOG, $AMZN down to growth stocks from $HOOD, to $RKLB. If companies started missing earnings and revising downward like $FISV, (maybe not to that extent lol) then I would be looking to exit the market instead of buying dips.
-
建议趁市场广泛抛售，买入基本面增长的股票。
@hereforgoodish2 现在有太多优质的买入机会了。买入 $META、$NBIS、$SNAP、$RDDT、$ALAB、$IBIT、$WULF、$CIFR、$RKLB、$WLAC 或 $TSM 都不会出错。 我肯定还漏掉了一些，但这次抛售范围很广，所以这是买入基本面正在增长的股票的好时机。
英文原文
@hereforgoodish2 There's too many good buys right now. Can't go wrong with $META, $NBIS, $SNAP, $RDDT, $ALAB, $IBIT, $WULF, $CIFR, $RKLB, $WLAC, or $TSM. I'm sure there's more I missed out but the selloff was broad so it's a good chance to buy into stocks with growing fundamentals.
-
成长股因宏观恐慌错杀，机构逢低吸纳，是最佳买入窗口。
目前市场正目睹大多数成长股下跌。 过去5天： · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) 已失去近期涨幅。为何？ 目前我们看到机械性对冲下行，混合着类似加密市场的实时级联保证金清算。 这还混合了基于宏观的投降式抛售，包括对12月降息概率的半合理担忧、政府停摆导致的数据缺失，以及多家对冲基金发布的AI看空报告。 最重要的一点是：尽管许多个股基本面正在改善。 我们看到像： $NBIS 将ARR指引从分析师预期的$4B上调至$7-9B，本周却跌去26.85%。 我们也看到 $SNAP 在发布$4B惊喜的Perplexity交易后，吹爆营收指引，却失去了财报后的所有涨幅。 此时，我们正接近12月“圣诞老人行情”前的底部，机构正在暗池/大宗交易中买入杠杆交易者的比特币清算资金，转向$NBIS等优质股票。 如果未来增长和基本面放缓，此次下跌后的持续抛售是合理的。 然而，如果许多成长股的基本面完好，这次市场重置是自4月关税抛售以来，从$KRKNF到$ALAB的成长股最佳买入机会。 正如Robinhood [ $HOOD ]数据显示，散户在$IREN等热门股上，在$45-$50底部大量卖出，但在$MSFT交易后$80顶部买入。 散户往往在顶部追高，但在下跌后底部投降。 这是伟大的重置，而非导致熊市的持续崩盘。保证金清算后及弱势筹码向长期投资者转移，将带来新高。 话说回来：你认为目前被抛售最严重的高Beta股票是哪只？
英文原文
Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now. In the past 5 days: · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) have lost their recent gains. Why? Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets. This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds. The most important thing to note is that: This is despite improving fundamentals in many individual stocks. We've seen companies like: $NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week. and we've seen $SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal. At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades. If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted. However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off. As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80. Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop. This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs. That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?
-
高贝塔资产遭抛售属市场重置，基本面改善应耐心持有。
从 $RKLB、$HOOD、$BTC（现89k）、$HIMS 等所有高贝塔/“风险”/成长型资产都在被无情抛售。尽管基本面全面改善，但这源于连环保证金清算和投降式抛售（基于部分合理的担忧）后的良好重置。以 $IREN 为例，散户仅因 Robinhood 数据就在股价创新低时抛售。但散户通常是在 $MSFT 交易后 $80 高点买入，而在崩盘后 $45 低位最后卖出。此时只需关注新周期、降息、期权到期，并耐心等待，因为基本面正在全面改善。如果盈利和远期收入放缓，我会大幅减仓（但事实并非如此，我们看到的是创纪录的增长）。
英文原文
Every high beta/“risk”/growth asset from $RKLB, $HOOD, $BTC (89k now), $HIMS is being obliterated. It’s a great reset from cascading margin liquidations and capitulation (based on semi-valid concerns) despite seeing improving fundamentals across the board. $IREN retail is selling off for example just based on Robinhood data even while stock is at new lows. But retail is typically the one to buy at the highest point $80 post $MSFT deal and and last to sell eg. $45 post crash. At this point it’s just new cycles, rate cut, option expirations, and waiting since fundamentals are improving across the board. If earnings were slowing and forward revenue was slowing, I would be selling well (but it’s not, we’re seeing record growth)
-
成长股因宏观利空广泛抛售，$PYPL 作为价值股相对独立。
这是成长型/高贝塔股的广泛抛售。$PYPL 是一只价值投资类型的股票。例如： 1个月： $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ 新云/矿企 1周： $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% 这不仅仅是单只股票的问题。这是在鲍威尔关于12月降息+政府长期停摆的言论之后发生的。
英文原文
It's a broader sell-off on growth/higher beta. $PYPL is a value investing type stock. eg: 1 Month: $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ Neoclouds/Miners 1 Week: $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% It's not just a single stock. This was after Powell's comments about Dec rate cut + extended gov shutdown.
-
宏观利好预期下，建议布局基本面稳健的高Beta成长股。
网上有很多只发标题党的帖子。 我通常尝试在标题之上连接线索，并补充“为什么”（因为它能推动市场）。 关于新宏观环境的TLDR（对$NBIS、$IREN等高Beta股看涨）： 1⃣ 结束政府停摆的协议正在成型 - Axios（政府停摆可能在~5天内结束） 评论：过去一两个小时内，事件合约赔率从27%跳升至54%。我们正在定价近期解决。 • 政府支出恢复后，流动性回流。 • 市场重新定价更高的GDP增长。 • 消费者支出立即回升。 • 不确定性消退（市场讨厌不确定性）。 结果 → 预期当风险偏好回归时，高Beta和周期性股票表现良好。 2️⃣ 向美国纳税人提议$2,000“关税红利” 评论：感觉像是COVID刺激的迷你版。那些存款引发了零售支出的最快跳跃，人们用那笔钱购买从比特币到英雄联盟皮肤的一切。但这至少来自关税。 • 对资产有利：更多资金流入经济。 • 可能导致通胀：需求压力增加，美联储后期可能反击。 • 短期：对风险资产和成长股极度积极。中长期：可能因通胀和美联储收紧而适得其反。 • 此类举措通常旨在短期内点燃市场，利好任何高成长标的。 结果 → 预期在正式重开前抢跑，并在确认后飙升。 你可以看到像$ETH这样的资产因上述两者的结合开始从$3300->$3500恢复，作为一个例子。 再次强调，我预期了像#2这样的情况，仅仅是因为明年中期选举临近。执政党如果市场表现良好通常会连任（所以我预期像#2 + 施压美联储降息，所以市场上涨）。 当然，这只是新消息+猜测，鉴于决策的波动性，不一定是事实lol。但总体上关注那些回调但基本面仍在增长的股票，例如$NBIS、$RDDT、$ALAB等。
英文原文
Lot of headline-only posters out there. I usually try to connect the dots on top of the headlines and fill in the why (it moves markets). TLDR on the new macro setup (bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc): 1⃣ DEAL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKES SHAPE - Axios (Government shutdown likely ending within ~5 days) Commentary: Event-contract odds jumped from 27% → 54% in the past hour or two. We're pricing in a near-term resolution. • Liquidity flows back once government spending resumes. • Market reprices GDP growth higher. • Consumer spending picks up immediately. • Uncertainty fades (markets hate uncertainty). Result → Expect high-beta and cyclicals to do well when risk appetite comes back. 2️⃣ $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal to American taxpayers Commentary: Feels like a mini-version of the COVID stimulus. Those deposits triggered the fastest jumps in retail spending, people were buying everything from Bitcoin to League Skins with that. But at least this came from tariffs. • Great for assets: more money flowing into the economy. • Might lead to inflation: more demand pressure, potential Fed pushback later. • Short-term: Extremely positive for risk assets and growth names. Mid to long-term: Could backfire with inflation and the Fed tightens. • Usually moves like this aim to ignite markets in the near term, good for anything heavy growth. Result → Expect frontrunning before the official reopening and a spike once it’s confirmed. You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example. Again I expected things like #2, just due to midterms coming up next year. The party in power usually gets re-elected if markets seem to be doing well (so I'd expect stuff like #2 + fed pressured rate cuts, so markets go up). Of course this is just new news + speculation, not facts for sure given how volatile decisions are made lol. But generally focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB, etc.
-
高贝塔股大幅回调，建议基本面完好者逢低布局。
全面的回调简直令人作呕。 高贝塔值成长股过去5天的表现： • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% 像 $RGTI (-27.33%)、$QBUT (-25.5%)、$QBTS (-25.43%)、$OKLO (-17.04%) 等没有收入的投机性股票，普遍出现了更大的回调。 当政府重新开放时，我预计许多投机性名称将继续下跌，而基本面完好无损的公司（例如 $CIFR、$NBIS、$TSM、$HOOD、$RDDT）将会恢复。 当前合约市场数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：49%（下周某时约有一半几率） 11月30日：92% 在市场极度恐慌且下月第三次降息概率超过75%时，利用大幅回调布局高贝塔值股票（如果基本面完好）是绝佳时机。 像这样的大规模抛售也说明了为什么你不应该做剩余期限<30天的短期期权，即使你对 $SNAP 或 $CIFR 的财报判断正确。
英文原文
Pretty disgusting correction across the board. Last 5 days for high-beta growth stocks: • $SMCI -26.11% • $RKLB -19.85% • $CRCL -19.81% • $NBIS -19.14% • $WYFI -18.55% • $ALAB -16.64% • $CRDO -16.8% • $HOOD -14.36% • $ASTS -14.09% • $IREN -13.22% • $AMD -11.63% • $CIFR -10.05% • $RDDT -9.00% Speculative no revenue stocks like ( $RGTI -27.33%, $QBUT -25.5%, $QBTS -25.43%, $OKLO -17.04% etc), had larger corrections across the board. When the government reopens, I’d expect many of the speculative names to stay down, while companies where fundamentals are in tact (eg. $CIFR, $NBIS, $TSM, $HOOD, $RDDT) would recover. Current Contract Market data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 49% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% Great time to position into higher-beta stocks during large corrections, (if fundamentals are in-tact), especially when we're in the extreme-fear part of markets and there's 75%+ of a third rate cut next month. Broad selloffs like these are also why you don't do short dated options <30dte, even if you are correct on earnings like $SNAP or $CIFR.
-
看好AMD上行潜力及HOOD长期价值，短期略高估
两者都是优质的多头标的，$AMD 拥有极高的上行潜力（仅参考 $NVDA 的市值即可见），且 Sam Altman 和 Elon 确认 AMD 在前沿模型中具有极高效用，这是极其积极的信号。 $HOOD 是一家世代级的公司。高确信度的长期持有。短期来看，我认为它像 $RKLB 一样略微高估。
英文原文
Both good longs, $AMD has extremely high upside potential (just looking at $NVDA's marketcap) and Sam Altman/Elon confirming AMD has high utility for frontier models is extremely positive. $HOOD generational company. High conviction long term. Short-term I'd argue it's a tad overvalued like $RKLB.
-
看好RDDT网络效应及RKLB太空赛道潜力，类比META与HOOD估值逻辑。
是的，量子计算一直是个泡沫，但鉴于市场有时非理性，我不做空。至于互联网上最爱/最恨的社区，我个人认为 $RDDT 的规模化路径很清晰：作为全球第七大网站，凭借网络效应它将长期存在。回顾推特上市时，估值4000亿美元，年营收37-50亿（自由现金流为负），年增长20-30%。$RDDT 季度营收5.85亿，毛利率91%，EBITDA 2.36亿（占营收40%），估值约340亿。鉴于它不像 $META 那样每次收购都面临全球反垄断审查，我认为 Reddit 有潜力像 $HOOD 那样增长，即在IPO后不久就大量盈利并持续扩大利润率。因此，它可以专注于利用粘性用户群扩大营收/收购（例如 Robinhood 收购加密货币交易所）。是的，$RKLB 有清晰的轨迹走向3500亿美元+市值，像 SpaceX 一样，因为太空应用众多且涉及巨大国家安全风险，大量投资将涌入该领域。
英文原文
Yeah quantum was always a bubble, but I don't short given how irrational they are sometimes. As for the Internet's favorite/most hated community, I personally see the path to scale for $RDDT just how it's the 7th most popular website on the internet and it will be around for awhile just due to network effect. Just going back to Twitter when it was public, it was valued at $40B, doing $3.7-5B yearly revenue (with negative FCF) growing roughly 20-30% Y/Y. $RDDT is doing $585m quarterly revenue, 91% gross margins, 236M EBITDA (40% of revenue) ~34B valuation. And given it's not at the scale of $META where every acquisition has global anti-trust lawyers on their asses, I just see Reddit with the potential to grow like $HOOD where they're printing money so close to after IPO and keeps on expanding margins. So they can just focus on expanding revenue/acquisitions with their sticky userbase (eg. how Robinhood acquired crypto exchanges). Yeah $RKLB has such a clear trajectory toward $350B+ MC like SpaceX since there's so many applications you can do with Space + huge national security risk so lot of investments will pour into the sector.
-
政府重开引发资产抛售，看好NBIS、META等优质资产错杀机会。
政府重新开放（可能在14号左右）真是个奇怪的催化剂，但确实如此。现在确实是资产抛售。没想到$BTC会再次跌破10万美元，但它确实跌了。然后是$NBIS，其核心业务（50-70%+利润率）明年ARR达50亿美元（无增长），净资产值110亿美元+，其中58亿为现金。市值270亿美元。$META，远期市盈率<22或更低？我听说有19倍市盈率的说法，我只是凭记忆。它仍在快速增长，在这个规模下更令人印象深刻。只是叙事和一次性税收导致价格下跌。还有其他有趣的买入如$RKLB、$RDDT等，但这类修正会抹去很多泡沫如$OKLO、$RGTI，但优质资产也遭殃。
英文原文
Gov reopening (likely around ~14th) is such a weird catalyst but it is. Yeah it's an asset fire sale right now. Didn't think $BTC would go below $100k again but it did. Then there's $NBIS, $5B ARR (50-70%+ margin) core business 1Y from now (without any growth), and NAV 11B+ with 5.8B of it cash. Valued at $27B. $META, <22 forward p/e or less? I've heard 19 p/e floated, I'm just going off the top of my head. It's still growing rapidly, which is even more impressive at that scale. Just narratives and one-time-tax dropped price. Lot of other fun buys like $RKLB, $RDDT and others too, but these types of corrections wipe off a lot of froth like $OKLO, $RGTI, but great assets get caught in the crossfire.
-
感冒简评：META/NBIS错杀强买，警示IREN/ETH，宏观看多AI基建。
11月4日 - 个股分析 + 宏观 清仓抛售：$META • $NBIS • $IBIT 强烈买入：$RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ 存储：南亚科 $2408，SK海力士 $HXSCL，美光 $MU 买入：$AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE 警示：$IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCL 量子计算：$IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS 通常我会逐一列表，列出更多的买卖建议并解释每一个原因，但我感冒了。 所以今天只做极简版，懒得研究更多股票。喝着汤，只关注几只股票并给出更广泛的概述。（如果有人问，我会帮忙解释。） $META： 再次强烈、强烈、强烈建议在财报大跌15%+及盘后下跌时买入。 营收超预期。每股收益(EPS)超预期。远期盈利完好。 如果计入一次性税收，EPS为$7.25对$6.67，但显示为$1.05（大幅不及预期），导致算法立即抛售。随后的抛售中，机械性资金流通常会将价格推得更低，但趋势通常在1-2周内反转。 利用这一点。 像“Meta在AI上花费太多”这样的叙事可能是噪音。每家Mag7公司都在增加AI资本支出，除非你从云/ASIC角度争论，否则Meta并没有做任何异常的事。有时真正的原因更愚蠢，比如算法未能识别一次性税收的标准化。 当低贝塔值的Mag7因非实质性原因下跌16%+时，有很大的获利潜力。 警示类别摘要： 不是叫卖，只是给出公平警示，让人们自行决定。 量子计算：仍无收入证明价格飙升的合理性。某些数据中心股票，即使回调后，也有远期营收+自由现金流支撑估值。 $ETH：高于$3K不是强买入（自$4.8K以来立场相同）。 $BMNR：ETH国库策略；以溢价追踪ETH价格。除非有国有化潜力（如$MSTR），否则国库策略不好。 $CRCL：下个月有巨大、巨大、巨大的股份解禁。 $IREN：$MSFT合同在标题上看起来很棒（$9B+营收，超大规模云厂商交易），但实际上利润率很差。 交易不是纯托管；$IREN吸收了~$5.8B的GPU+辅助设备资本支出。 毛利率：最好只有30%出头，自由现金流盈利能力可能降至个位数。相比之下，$NBIS的交易结构更好（$11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr）。 交易验证了超大规模云厂商将与IREN签约（正面），但交易本身很糟糕。不是卖出，只是警示那些因标题而FOMO的人。 如果你想FOMO进什么，$CIFR（AWS合同）更有意义。 _ 宏观观点： 市场一直在抛售高贝塔值股票，可能只是正常回调。 逆风： 鲍威尔暗示第三次降息不确定 -> 重新定价。 政府停摆可能延长（短期逆风）。历史上，重新开放后回调会迅速反转。 事件市场定价11月14日为结束日期（还有9天）。 如果像$NBIS（-7.9%）这样拥有惊人远期营收支撑的名字没有实质性变化，大跌时是极好的买入机会。还有像$RDDT这样发布了好财报却跌了7%的股票，也是强烈的买入机会。 泡沫在美联储收紧时破裂。我们已经有了两次降息，还有一次很可能。不要跟随那个预测了过去1次崩溃中5000次的《富爸爸穷爸爸》家伙。 AI ≠ 泡沫 yet - 由Mag7财报、真实营收和利润支撑。但如果OpenAI继续在没有资金的情况下过度承诺合同，以后可能开始像泡沫（1-2年后的投影风险）。 摘要：随着降息后的宽松，市场可能趋势向上。 数据中心建设保持完整（Mag7财报显示巨大的AI资本支出）。 回调中保持强劲的板块：存储 • 能源 • 半导体 • 连接 • 新云 保持多头，在这些回调中建立仓位
英文原文
November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE Warnings: $IREN • $ETH • $BMNR • $CRCLQuantum: $IONQ • $RGTI • $QBTS Normally I'd go down the list, have more buy/sells, and talk about every single explanation but I caught a cold. So just doing an extremely light version today and didn’t feel like researching more stocks. Just focusing on a few with a broader overview while I drink some soup. (Will help explain if someone asks though.) $META: Once again, Strong, Strong, Strong Buy on the 15%+ earnings drop and post-ER drop. Beat on Revenue. Beat on EPS. Forward earnings intact. If you factor in one-time tax, EPS was $7.25 to $6.67, but it showed as $1.05 (huge miss), which led to algorithmic sell-offs immediately after. Following sell-offs, mechanical flows often push prices lower, but trends usually reverse in 1–2 weeks. Take advantage of this. Narratives like “Meta spending too much on AI” are likely noise. Every Mag7 company is increasing AI capex, Meta isn’t doing anything unusual unless you argue from a cloud/ASIC standpoint. Sometimes the real reason is dumber like algorithms not recognizing one-time tax normalization. Lot of profit potential when lower-beta Mag7 drops 16%+ on nothing material. Warnings Category TLDR: Not calling sells, just giving fair warnings so people can decide for themselves. Quantum: Still no revenue to justify price surges. Certain data center stocks, even after corrections, have forward revenue + FCF to back valuations. $ETH: Not a strong buy above $3K (same stance since $4.8K). $BMNR: ETH treasury play; tracks ETH price with a premium. Treasury plays aren’t good unless potential for nationalization (eg. $MSTR). $CRCL: Massive, massive, massive share unlock coming next month. $IREN: The $MSFT contract looks great in headlines ($9B+ revenue, Hyperscaler deal), but in reality, margins are poor. Deal isn’t pure colo; $IREN absorbs ~$5.8B capex in GPUs + ancillary equipment. Gross margins: low 30s at best, can drop to single-digit FCF profitability. By comparison, $NBIS had a structurally better deal ($11.6M/MW/yr vs $9.7M/MW/yr). The deal validated that hyperscalers will sign with IREN (positive), but the deal itself was terrible.Not a sell, just a warning for people FOMOing the headline. If you want to FOMO into something, $CIFR (AWS contract) makes more sense. _ Macro View: Markets have been selling off high-beta stocks, likely just a normal correction. Headwinds: Powell signaling a third rate cut isn’t certain -> repricing. Gov shutdown likely extends (short-term headwind). Historically, corrections reverse quickly after reopen. Event markets price Nov 14th as end date (9 days out). If there’s no material change for names like $NBIS (-7.9%), backed by insane forward revenue, great buy on the dip. Also stuff like $RDDT that posted great ER but dropped 7.% also strong buying opportunity. Bubbles pop under Fed tightening. We've had two rate cuts, and another still likely. Don’t follow the Rich Dad Poor Dad dude who predicted 5000 of the last 1 crashes. AI ≠ bubble yet - backed by Mag7 earnings, real revenue, and profits. But if OpenAI keeps over-promising contracts without funds, it could start resembling one later (projection risk 1–2 years out). TLDR: Markets likely trend higher as easing follows rate cuts. Data center buildout remains intact (Mag7 earnings show huge AI capex). Sectors that stay strong on corrections: Memory • Energy • Semi • Connectivity • Neoclouds Stay long and build positions on these dips
-
宏观视角下，利用年底季节性、降息预期及机构资金流向，激进配置新云与AI赢家股。
宏观分析： 关注领域：资金流向 · 代理指标 · 季节性 · 仓位配置 布局： _ 新云(Neocloud)：$NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX 连接性(Connectivity)：$ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS 机器人(Robotics)：$KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR 国家安全(National Security)：$RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX 能源(Energy)：$FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI 半导体(Semi)：$TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ 第一部分 - 机构资金流向 进入10-11月，对冲基金卖出表现不佳的股票以锁定税务亏损并重新平衡仓位。 这造成了由税务亏损收割(tax-loss harvesting)带来的机械性下行压力，即轮动年内亏损股并轮动至赢家股。一旦这种抛售结束且洗售(wash sale)窗口期过期，机构和量化基金通常在12月中下旬或1月初回购这些超跌股。 上述布局展示了所有年内上涨的股票，通常你希望在年底通过收割亏损股并加仓赢家股来激进配置。 像$SNAP、$ETOR、$DRFT等可能在基本面被低估的股票，很大程度上受机构仓位配置影响。除非你想等待2-3个月并在此期间积累筹码（这也是有效策略），否则顺势而为更好。 第二部分 - 代理指标(Proxies) 新云 - 我们看到了$META与$CRWV的交易，$WULF与$GOOGL及Fluidstack的合资企业，$MSFT对OpenAI的计算需求增加等，这对整个新云板块极其看涨。因此该板块可能继续跑赢大盘。 国家安全 - 我们看到特朗普持有$MP等关键材料公司的股份，并开始关注支持更多国家安全风险，如量子计算公司$RGTI、$IONQ等。这对$RKLB等其他国家安全建设板块总体利好。 半导体 - $TSM是半导体建设和需求的最佳代理指标，其远期营收预测令人难以置信。人们常犯的错误是看$ASML的晶圆厂周期，但这并非正确的代理指标。 我们可以用$CLS作为连接性的代理指标，或用$BE的财报作为能源的代理指标等。 但通常，你可以通过该领域的其他公司很好地判断哪个板块正在跑赢或可能表现良好。 第三部分 - 季节性 11月和12月是股市表现最强的月份。 这更多是心理层面的，因为情绪因素。但也部分出于机械性原因，因为基金在10月进行税务亏损收割重新部署现金后，“追逐业绩”以锁定年度收益。 第四部分 - 仓位配置 这完全取决于你自身的风险水平。例如，对于较小的$10万投资组合，你可以像这样激进配置： 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO, 5% $KRKNF, 5% $FLNC, 5% $TSM看涨期权, 20% 杂项或低贝塔(如$HOOD), 10% 现金。 如果你想做“赌徒”(degen)，现在可能是最好的时机。我之前举过一个ETF的例子说明如何配置，但我通常不建议将整个投资组合集中在单只股票上。 还有其他未提及的板块如金融科技/电商($HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA)等，你可以自行替换。 第五部分 - 宏观 人们担心AI泡沫，但泡沫通常在美联储收紧时破裂，我们最近已在许多泡沫股中看到修正。但现在我们将迎来另外两次降息和政府重新开放（这是一个奇怪的催化剂，但确实存在）。 根据Polymarket，有86%的概率再降息两次，这很疯狂。随着三次降息，成长股和小盘股往往因廉价资金和债务缓解激发风险偏好而飙升。大量流动性最终将流入成长股和小盘股。 _ 这只是总体趋势，你可以选择自己的股票篮子，或任何你认为不错的。我个人对新云、AI建设最看涨，并更倾向于非对称(asymmetrical)选择，但各凭喜好（例如人们在能源/机器人或金融科技上有大量仓位）。 另需注意，即使某只股票如$RGTI上涨500%，也要确保其上涨有基本面支撑（如新云、远期营收）。 但总体而言，如果你只能记住一点，那就是在两次降息、年底季节性和向赢家股集中配置时激进出击，这是前所未有的最佳时机。
英文原文
Macro Analysis: Focus Areas: Flows · Proxies · Seasonality · Positioning Setup : _ Neocloud: $NBIS · $IREN · $CIFR · $DGXX Connectivity: $ALAB · $CRDO · $CLS Robotics: $KRKNF · $ONDS · $RR National Security: $RKLB · $MP · $KTOS · $CCCX Energy: $FLNC · $EOSE · $TE · $SEI Semi: $TSM · $AMD · $NVDA · $MU _ Part 1 - Institutional Flows Into October–November, hedge funds sell underperformers to lock in tax losses and rebalance positions. This creates mechanical downside pressure from tax-loss harvesting by rotating losers YTD and rotating into winners. Once this selling ends and wash sale windows expire, institutions and quants often buy back these oversold names in uually mid tolate Dec or early January. The setup above shows every stock that up YTD, usually you want to position aggressively into these EOY by tax-harvesting losers and scaling into positions that win. Stocks like $SNAP, $ETOR, $DRFT, and others that might be undervalued fundamentally is largely affected by institutional positioning. It's better to go with the flow rather than fight against it unless you want to wait out 2-3 months and accumulate during this time (which is a valid strategy as well). Part 2 - Proxies Neocloud - We've seen $META x $CRWV deal, $WULF x $GOOGL x Fluidstack JV, $MSFT having more compute demand from OpenAI, and others, which is extremely bullish for the whole Neocloud sector. So sector will likely continue to outperform. National Security - We've seen Trump take stakes into critical material companies like $MP and start looking into backing more national security risks such as quantum names like $RGTI, $IONQ, and others. This is generally positive for other names like $RKLB or other national security buildout across the board. Semi - $TSM is the best proxy for semiconductor buildout and demand and their forward revenue projections are absolutely insane. People make the mistake of looking at Fab cycles from $ASML but it's not the right proxy. We can go on with $CLS as a proxy for connectivity or $BE earnings for energy, etc. But generally, you can get a good idea on what sector is outperforming or is likely to do well based on other companies in the area. Part 3- Seasonality November and December are the strongest months for equities. This one is more psychological because of sentiment. But also partly mechanical because funds “chase performance” to lock in annual gains after they redeploy cash from tax loss harvesting in October. Part 4 - Positioning This is purely based on your own risk level. For example, with a smaller $100k portfolio you can be fine positioning aggressively like: 25% $NBIS, 10% $IREN, 10% $ALAB, 10% $CRDO 5% KRKNF, 5% FLNC, 5% TSM calls, 20% misc or low beta (eg. $HOOD), 10% cash. If you want to be a degen, now is probably the best time to do so though. I gave an example ETF earlier on how you can position but I typically don't recommend concentrating your whole portfolio into single stocks. There are other segments I didn't mention like Fintech/Commerce ( $HOOD, $SOFI, $DLO, $SEA) and so on but you can plug and play. Part 5 - Macro People worry about AI bubbles, but bubbles pop when Federal Reserve tightens, and we recently got a correction in a lot of bubbly names. But now we're going into 2 more rate cuts and government re-opening (which is such a weird catalyst but it is one). We have a 86% chance of 2 more rate cuts which is insane (as per Polymarket). And, with a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite. Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps. _ This is just the general trend, you can pick your own basket of stocks, or whatever you feel is great. I'm personally the most bullish on Neoclouds, AI buildout and positioned more heavily toward asymmetrical picks but to each their own (eg. people have large positioning in energy/robotics, or fintech) Also something to note is that even if something goes up 500% like $RGTI, make sure the rise backed by fundamentals (eg. Neoclouds, forward revenue) But generally if you had to take one piece away, being aggressive into two more rate cuts, end of year seasonality, and consolidating into winners is the best time ever for it.
-
美国政府入股量子等国安企业，引发空头回补与机构重配。
突发：美国政府拟收购量子计算公司股权，这是巨大的游戏规则改变者。 国家安全概念股——AI ($NBIS)、能源 ($TE)、太空 ($RKLB)、矿产 ($MP)、量子 ($RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS)——可能迎来剧烈反转，空头将疯狂平仓，做市商(Market Makers)的对冲操作也将机械性推高股价。 我们观察到一个清晰的趋势：华盛顿正在向国家安全公司投入数十亿美元，范围从关键矿产扩展到量子计算，并可能涉及其他领域。 特朗普政府购买对国家安全至关重要的各公司股权，可能引发机构显著重新配置仓位，因为基金和算法正在重新评估做空与美国政府在稀土、量子、AI等领域建设挂钩资产的风险。 机构和做市商(MMs)可能会针对散户做空，但他们绝不会对美国政府的资产负债表下注。
英文原文
Breaking: U.S. Government moves to take stakes in quantum computing firms, a huge game-changer. National security names - AI ( $NBIS ), Energy ( $TE ), Space ( $RKLB ), Minerals ( $MP ), Quantum ( $RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover and MM hedging mechanically goes upward. We now see a clear trend: Washington is deploying billions into national security companies, expanding from critical minerals to quantum computing, and likely to others. The Trump administration buying equity of various firms critical to national security could trigger significant institutional repositioning, as funds and algorithms rethink the risks of shorting assets tied to the U.S. government's buildout of rare earths, quantum, AI, etc. Institutions and MMs may short against retail, but they never bet against the U.S. Government's balance sheet.
-
市场高波成长股普跌，深度超卖股如NBIS现买入良机。
是的，现在对许多投资者来说确实是一段艰难时期，$HOOD 跌 7%，$RKLB 跌 10%，$TE 跌 13%，$CIFR 跌 15%，许多量子计算概念股单日下跌 20%。这对大多数人来说压力很大。 任何高贝塔值(高波动性)/成长型股票都遭到重创。 但积极的一面是，如果像 $NBIS 这样已经深度超卖且进一步被抛售的股票，就会转化为绝佳的买入机会。希望这对你们有利，只是需要一点耐心！
英文原文
Yeah it's definitely rough times right now for a lot of investors, $HOOD down 7%, $RKLB down 10%, $TE down 13%, $CIFR down 15%, many quantum names down 20% all in a single day. Very stressful for most people. Anything high beta/growth got nuked together. But the positive thing is, if it's already deeply oversold + got sold off even more like $NBIS, then it turns into a great buying opportunity. I hope it plays out well for you, just requires a bit of patience!
-
NBIS遭错杀，基本面强劲，机构持仓将借机上升。
看起来目前高贝塔值(high-beta)股票也在全面抛售，从 $HOOD、$RKLB 到量子计算板块皆是如此。$NBIS 在其他股票之前就开始下跌，因此在原有 23%+ 跌幅的基础上再跌 7%，简直是雪上加霜。 一家正在将年化经常性收入(ARR)从数百美元扩展至 40-60 亿美元、毛利率约 60-75%、持有 50 亿美元以上现金、拥有投资组合公司数十亿所有权，且处于美国万亿美元数据中心建设浪潮中的公司，市值却只有 240 亿美元……这简直令人发笑。 但遗憾的是，正是在这样的时刻，散户被清洗或只看价格不看基本面的“纸手”投资者离场，从而使得机构持股比例随时间上升。我不惊讶于看到这个数字大幅上升。
英文原文
Looks like there's also a selloff across all high-beta stocks right now too from $HOOD, $RKLB, to quantum. $NBIS sold off before the others so the 7% drop today on top of the existing 23%+ drop is icing on the cake. 24B marketcap... for a company scaling hundreds of %+ to $4-6B ARR on ~60-75% gross margins, $5B+ in cash, ownership in the billions for portfolio companies, amidst the US trillion dollar data center buildout is laughable. But it's times like these where retail sadly gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how the ownership % goes up over time. Wouldn't be surprised to see this number go up a lot.
-
WSB是底部信号，长期方向准但短视，逆向操作需定力。
@AkaliOnYT 是的，/r/wallstreetbets 是 $NBIS 等股票的绝佳底部信号。他们对 $RKLB、$HOOD、$TSM 和 $MU 的长期方向判断往往正确，但注意力持续时间只有一个月。能说服自己采取相反操作是一项特殊技能。
英文原文
@AkaliOnYT Yeah /r/wallstreetbets is a great bottom signal for $NBIS and others. They’re often directionally right long term $RKLB, $HOOD, $TSM, and $MU but have 1 month long attention spans. It's a special skill to convince yourself to do the opposite.
-
博主解释年底税务操作，并反思Rocket Lab减仓失误。
@soulbiri1 是的，我会写一篇分析文章！目前出于税务目的有点特殊，如果不是年底，我不会真的卖出那些我认为还会涨的股票。 另外，不要听信我关于卖出高确信度盈利头寸的建议，我在 $RKLB 30美元时减仓了约60万美元。可能只是持有 https://t.co/tWEMWr3q4r
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah I'll do a writeup! It's a bit special right now for tax purposes, I wouldn't really sell stocks I still think would go back up if it weren't EOY. Also don't trust me on selling wining positions with high conviction, I trimmed like $600k of $RKLB at $30. Probably just hold https://t.co/tWEMWr3q4r
-
解释高确信度持仓与多股并发波段交易策略
批评得中肯。我认为一个重要的细微差别是，我的投资组合大部分是高确信度的（比特币、金融科技、新云厂商、$RKLB）。我只拿出较小比例用于主动波段交易+中期持有以等待重估（$SNAP、$ETOR），而这些正是我在市场持续下跌而非反弹时的亏损来源。这是我的个人交易风格，同时监控40多只股票，因为我不长期持有主动交易头寸，例如，如果我在$HIMS下跌14%时以50美元买入，随后上涨8%，我就会止盈。我发现如果同时操作大量股票，这种策略通常效果最好，否则等待单只股票（如Reddit）波段回归的时间会太长。我个人对此方法取得了成功，所以我会继续这样做。
英文原文
That’s fair criticism. I think an important nuance is majority of my portfolio is in high conviction (bitcoin, fintech, neoclouds, rklb). I take a smaller percentage just for active swing trading + medium term holds for re-rating (snap, etor) and these were my losses when it kept dipping instead of any recovering. It’s my personal trading style monitoring 40+ stocks at once since I don’t long term hold active trades, eg. If $HIMS went up 8% when I bought it at $50 on the 14% drop, I’d take profit. And it usually works the best if I do a ton of stocks concurrently, otherwise the waiting period would be too long just waiting for one stock swing back like Reddit. I’ve found success with it personally so I just keep doing it.
-
降息在即，建议利用回调做多NBIS、TSM等高确信度AI及科技股。
距离降息还有12天（概率94.1%）。做市商(MMs)喜欢利用这样的时机清洗期权链(option chain)。 就我个人关注的杠杆交易(leveraged trades)关键价位而言： $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKLB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ 特别点名亚马逊，尽管市场反弹，其年初至今(YTD)仍下跌4.6%。 $AMZN - $200-$210（现在$211买入看涨期权(calls)极佳，让我想起$GOOGL在史诗级反弹前的$145。基本上现在看起来不错，但像Google一样，它跌破了人们预期的水平，所以甚至可能触及$200） 我对高确信度(high conviction)标的使用保证金+期权没问题，这只是我个人的风险承受能力，非财务建议(NFA)。 现在是做多高确信度标的的最佳时机。
英文原文
We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain. In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades: $NBIS - $105-$110 $TSM - $170-$175 $BTC - ~<$100K $RKlB - $35-$40 $ALAB - $100-$120 _ Special shoutout to Amazon, which is down 4.6% YTD despite the rally. $AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls, reminds me of $GOOGL at $145 before the epic rally. Basically around now seems good, but like Google it dropped below levels people expected so might even touch $200) I’m fine with margin + options on higher conviction stuff, this is just my personal risk tolerance, NFA. These times are the best to go long on high conviction.
-
博主基于宏观利好更新美股AI/半导体/能源等板块的强烈买入、买入及持有名单。
大豆/植物油崩盘，个人思考与解释： 强烈买入 $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC （+ 同上次税务收割股） $AMZN $SMCI _ 买入 $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH 持有 $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS （已达推文股票代码上限，其余同上次帖子，Quantum或Oklo仍建议卖出） _ 强烈买入 ALAB - 数据中心建设的重要组成部分，拥有类似英伟达(NVDA)的利润率，客户包括Mag7。已有来自博通(AVGO)的竞争者，真的不认为Arista会构成竞争威胁。 CRDO - 与ALAB同样的抛售，之前觉得两者都略有高估，但现在回到修正区间，适合补仓。 NBIS - $400目标价牛市情景。宏观顺风来自政府重新开放+10月底降息预期进入财报季，短期前景看好。利好众多（如Meta x CRWV，因此有更多Mag7客户的潜力），分部表现良好，例如Clickhouse，季度收入从$1亿扩展到$15亿+非常惊人。合同已锁定，只是公司执行的问题。 WLAC - 之前在$13时写过投资逻辑。即使在$14.5也很强，因为它可以轻松重估100%+。 LTC - 受杠杆交易者和政府停摆影响。预计停摆将持续一段时间，主要买入理由是ETF获批。但无论如何，低于$100都是很好的买入点，因为最终会获批（~95%概率）。 TSM - 天哪。如果是美国公司这将是$3万亿市值的公司，利润率惊人，对于其规模而言增长率惊人。每篇关于OpenAI X (**Sydney Sweeney合作)或AMD建设/NVDA建设的帖子中，TSM都是核心，即使以历史高点买入，也轻松成为$2万亿+公司（目前约$1.5万亿）。 BTC - $112K是好的入场点。黄金不断创历史新高，基本面没什么变化，只是最近大量清算。 （+ 同上次税务收割股） AMZN - 我真不知道为什么年初至今还在跌。我觉得亚马逊不需要太多解释，但仍在增长（例如AWS积压订单巨大，仍增长24%，当然不如ORCL、GCP等），但考虑到年底季节性和2月前的上涨，现在可能是抄底的最佳时机。AMZN今天触及$213-215是补仓的好机会，因为短期波段交易通常浮动在$218-$227，但长期我预计它会追赶其他Mag7。 SMCI - 被低估。市场关注短期表现，Charles引用的55%+同比前瞻收入增长无人相信+未实现的积压订单。但现在随着所有数据中心建设，这开始说得通了。因此应在接下来两次财报中重估。 _ 买入 AMD - OpenAI x AMD，Oracle使用AMD建设，这么多交易，如果它确实是$NVDA的强劲竞争对手，将重估为潜在$1万亿+公司。我不认为赢家通吃，可以看到$NVDA $4.5万亿+市值和$AMD $3500亿市值，所以我们可以看到大幅拉升（OpenAI通常是前沿模型领导者，如果Sam说他们可以使用AMD芯片+Elon说它对中小模型有益，可能意味着积极信号） FLNC - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 SEI - AI消耗后能源强劲重估，很好的买入。 BZAI - 别人做过这家公司的深度研究，仅因板块和向边缘计算转移（例如机器人将很热）。由于低市值和类似公司的上涨可能表现良好。 NKLR - 像$OKLO这样的核能股已经起飞，这只是跟随梯队。 IREN - 无需介绍，巨大的GW算力，只是还没有宣布Mag7交易，但随时可能到来 -> 强劲重估。不是强烈买入的唯一原因是因为不完全确信矿工能像CRWV那样转型并保持高利润率（例如$ORCL打击文章），但我们会看到。 WULF - GOOGL积压订单，另外$3.6+亿左右的资金帮助很大。 CIFR - X上有很多关于未来产能和强劲重估的信息。一直喜欢这家公司，因为它是NBIS-lite。你可以买任何Neocloud，因为板块潜力巨大，Mag7将收入注入。 CRWV - 因为债务不像其他人那样喜欢，但由于植物油修正，$134（低于META交易宣布时）是更好的买入点 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 WYFI - Neocloud类别相同 BITF - Neocloud类别相同 GLXY - Neocloud类别相同，有助于其建设 RBRK - 做过深度研究，中期网络安全板块很好的买入，他们只需缩减营销，然后看起来有更多自由现金流，因为他们将大部分运营支出花在营销上。 GRAB - 基本面很好，-6.56%修正再次买入 SEA - 东南亚的AMZN，很多人使用。仅因客户群+变现潜力就买入。基本面$50亿+收入38% Y/Y增长也很好。 META - 我真的很不喜欢他们在AI上的昂贵资本支出，因为他们并没有像ChatGPT那样推出前沿模型，谁知道Zuck在做什么。但除此之外，一个月下跌7.3%，回到$700支撑位，可能在这里买入以追赶是个好主意。 TGT - 下个月股息是好的催化剂。 SNAP - Jenners回来了（有助于人气），他们将前记忆运营支出转为收入，这可能会导致明年巨大的重估。只是受税务收割影响，否则现在会是强烈买入。通常税务收割事件在12月完成。 MU - 现在中国恐惧稍微减弱，MU因为建设中的内存使用而成为更强的买入。 RKLB - 中子，金色穹顶合同，很多催化剂 FLY - 中等提升 UNH - 不受大豆影响的医疗保健股，但有修正。机构发布持仓后可能会上涨（例如Warren可能买了更多） 随机想法 基本上任何不是Oklo的成长/风险股都很好，因为我们有 -> 10月底降息 -> 政府重新开放（可能在10月底或11月初） 进入 -> 12月降息。 -> 中期选举（对股票看涨） 通常市场崩盘发生在紧缩而非宽松时。你的愚蠢量子泡沫可能会再持续3-12个月。如果你做空，可能等到明年2月。 无论如何，这是风险偏好的好时机，特别是搭乘Neoclouds -> 相关板块（例如能源）-> 相关公司（例如smci, tsm等）的趋势。 我半开玩笑地说大豆，因为它可能签署了升级紧张局势，但我可能会看到明年前的上涨。另外我可以写很多关于每一个的内容，但这很耗时，但我会不时发布关于随机股票如$RBRK的投资逻辑帖子。 太空/机器人/能源/量子/AI/半导体/关键垂直领域是目前最顶级的，不要对抗动量。我可以认为某些东西被高估了（例如一些关键材料，因为与Neoclouds相比仍然具有投机性，后者基于Mag7的执行有保证的收入），但我不会在降息时做空它。 只是个人想法，非财务建议
英文原文
The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations: Strong Buy $ALAB $CRDO $NBIS $WLAC $LTC $TSM $BTC (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) $AMZN $SMCI _ Buy $AMD $FLNC $SEI $BZAI $NKLR $IREN $WULF $CIFR $CRWV $BITF $WYFI $SLNH $BITF $RBRK $GLXY $GRAB $SEA $META $TGT $SNAP $MU $RKLB $FLY $UNH Hold $MP $HOOD $EOSE $NVDA $GOOGL $DFLI $SOFI $VIRT $RR $AVGO $BE $ASTS (Hit the ticker maximum but everything else from last post, still sell on Quantum or Oklo) _ Strong Buys ALAB - Huge part of datacenter buildout, NVDA like margins, Mag7 customers. Already had competitors from AVGO, really don't think Arista would be a competitive threat. CRDO - Same sell-off as ALAB, thought they were both kind of overvalued before, but now they're back in correction territory so good to stock up. NBIS - $400 PT bull case. We have macro tailwind from government re-opening + rate cut EOM october into earnings, so short term looks promising. Lot of things going for it (eg. meta x crwv, so there's potential for more mag7 clients), sum of parts doing well, eg. clickhouse, and scaling rev from $100m to $1.5B+ a quarter is insane. there's already contracts locked in its just a matter of company execution. WLAC - Wrote a thesis about this earlier at $13. Even at $14.5 strong because it can re-rate 100%+ easily. LTC - Affected by leverage traders and government shutdown. The shutdown is predicted to last awhile and the main reason to buy was the ETF getting approved. But a great buy sub <$100 anyway, because it will get approved in due time (~95% chance). TSM - Holy crap. This would be a $3T company if this were a US company, insane profit margins, insane growth rate for their size. And every post you see about OpenAi X (**sydney sweeney partnership) or AMD buildout/NVDA buildout. TSM is the center of it all and would easily be a $2T+ company (from here at ~$1.5T), even if buying at ATHs. BTC - $112K good entry point. Goldt keeps hitting ATH, nothing really changed fundamentally, just lot of liquidations recently (+ same as tax harvest stocks last time) AMZN - I really don't know how it's still down YTD. I don't think Amazon needs much explaining but still growing (eg. AWS backlog massive, still going like 24% but not as much as ORCL, GCP and others obviously), but with EOY seasonality and runup to Feb, now is probably the best chance to catch the bottom. AMZN hitting $213-215 today was a good chance to stock up since it usually floats between $218-$227 if you're short term swing trading but long term I'd expect it to catchup to other mag7. SMCI - Underrated. Markets were looking short term performance, and Charles was quoting like 55%+ Y/Y forward revenue growth which nobody believed + backlog that didnt get realized yet. But now with all the data center buildouts, now it's kinda making sense. So should re-rate in the next two earnings. _ Buy AMD - So many deals from OpenAI x AMD, oracle building out with AMD, this is going to re-rate to a potential $1T+ company if it's actually a strong competitive to $NVDA. I don't think it's winner takes all and you can see a $4.5T+ market cap size with NVDA and some $350B marketcap size with AMD, so we can see a large ramp up (OpenAI is usually the leader in frontier models and if Sam says they can use AMD chips + elon said its' good for small-medium weight models, prboably means something positive) FLNC - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. SEI - Strong re-rate on energy after AI consumption, great buy. BZAI - Someone else did a DD on this company, just cause of sector and shift to edge compute (eg. Robotics goign to be hot). Because of low MC and runup of similar companies could turn out well. NKLR - Nuclear stocks like $OKLO have been taking off, this is just follow the lader. IREN - Needs no introduction, huge GW compute capacity just no announced mag7 deals yet but could come anytime -> strong re-rate. Only reason not a strong buy is because not fully convinced miners can pivot like CRWV and maintain great margins (eg. $ORCL hit piece) but we'll see. WULF - GOOGL backlog, another $3.6+ or so in funding helps a lot. CIFR - Lot of info on X about future capacity and strong re-rating. Always liked this company because it was NBIS-lite. You can probably buy any Neocloud and it will go up because the sector is incredibly high potential with Mag7 funneling revenue. CRWV - Didn't like this as much as others because of debt but because of the seed oil correction much better buy point at $134 (below when META deal was announced) BITF - Same in Neocloud category WYFI - Same in Neocloud category BITF - Same in Neocloud category GLXY - Same in Neocloud category, helps with their buildout RBRK - Did a DD on this, great buy for cybersecurity sector in mid term, they just need to scale back marketing and then it looks like they have a lot more FCF because they're spending most OPEX on marketing. GRAB - Great fundamentally, -6.56% correction good to buy again SEA - AMZN in SEA, tons of people use them. Just a buy just because of costumer base + monetization potenetial. Fundamentally growing $5B+ rev 38% Y/Y is also great. META - I really don't like all their expensive capex on AI since they're not really putting out fronteir models like ChatGPT with it, who knows what Zuck is doing. But that aside, down 7.3% over the month, going to $700 support, probably a good buy around here to play catchup. TGT - Dividend next month good catalyst. SNAP - The Jenners are coming back (helps with popularity), they're shifting former memory opex to revenue, and this will probably cause a HUGE rerating next year. Just suffers from tax harvesting otherwise would be a strong buy rn. Usually tax harvesting events are kinda done in December. MU - Now that China fears are kinda less intense, MU is a lot stronger buy just cause of memory use on buildout. RKLB - Neutron, golden dome contracts, lot of cataylsts FLY - Medium lift UNH - Healthcare stock not affected by soybeans but had a correction. Would likely go up one instituions post their ports (eg. warren likely bought more) Random thoughts Basically any growth/risk stock that's not named Oklo is great because we have -> Rate Cut end of month October -> Government re-opening sometime (likely around end of Oct or early Nov) Into -> Rate Cut December. -> Midterms (Bullish for stocks) Usually market crashes happen when there's tightening not easing. And your stupid quantum bubbles would likely continue for another 3-12 months afterward. If you're short, then probably wait till next Feb. Anyway, this is a great time for risk-on, and specially riding trends with neoclouds -> affiliated sectors (eg. energy) -> affiliated companies (eg. smci, tsm, etc). I half joke-about soybeans because it likely signed escalating tensions, but I'd probably see a run-up into next year. Also I could write up a lot about each one but it's pretty time consuming but I'll put on a thesis post about random ones eg. $RBRK, from time to time. Space/robotics/energy/quantum/ai/semi/critical top verticals right now, don't fight against momentum. I can think something is overvalued (eg. some critical materials bc. it's still spectulative compared to neoclouds that kinda have guaranteed rev based on execution from mag7) but I wouldn't short it into rate cuts. Just personal thoughts, NFA
-
看好RKLB长期潜力，并推荐NBIS等替代标的。
@paramdan42454 只要基本面良好，股票在长期内总是会上涨的。 我认为 $RKLB 总有一天会像 SpaceX 一样达到 3500 亿美元的市场规模，而它现在才 300 亿美元。 如果你觉得自己错过了什么，也总有新的机会，比如 $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 Stonks always go higher over longer periods of time if they’re fundamentally good. I think $RKLB will go to $350B market cap one day like SpaceX and it’s still $30B now. There’s always new opportunities too if you feel like you missed something like $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC
-
分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
-
博主因在WSB发帖被删且股价暴涨后遭封禁，故部分转移阵地。
@BTCVIX @yeah_dave @wallstreetbets 是的，我部分从 WSB 搬到这里，因为他们毫无理由地删除了我关于 $RKLB 的帖子两次，随后股价从 25 美元飙升至约 50 美元。在我重新发布相同内容后，他们还短暂封禁了我。
英文原文
@BTCVIX @yeah_dave @wallstreetbets Yeah I partially moved from WSB to here because they deleted my $RKLB post 2 times for no reason and then it shot up from $25 to like $50. They also banned me for a short time for posting the same thing again after they took it down.
-
博主分享RKLB建仓与信念建立过程，并列举长期看好标的。
@paramdan42454 这是我在未来5年，或者2年时间框架内，信念最坚定的标的。 对于像 $RKLB（$16 - 我首次买入时，$28 - 我建立信念时）这样的股票。 关于 $HOOD、$TSM 的事情是随机列举的，这只是我在未来十年内最坚信的内容。
英文原文
@paramdan42454 It's what I have the most conviction in the next 5 years, or a 2 year time-frame. For stocks like $RKLB ($16 - When I first bought, $28 - When I developed conviction). Things from $HOOD, $TSM, are in random order, it's just what I believe in the most within the next decade.
-
博主首次公开高确信度持仓列表，详解6只核心多头及1只百倍潜力股的建仓逻辑。
这是我首次发布我的高确信度持仓列表。 这是我的6只最高确信度多头持仓，以及1只新的1000%潜力“登月”标的🚀 按首次买入时间及我建立确信度的时机/原因排序。 5年持仓： $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2年持仓： $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000%登月标的（确信度不如其他，但我认为它最有希望实现10倍增长） $WLAC ($13 | $13) 以下是观点变化的原因： 1. $RKLB -> 自特朗普宣布成立太空军以来，我就知道太空行业正在快速增长。当时我想投资SpaceX，但没有替代选择。 所以当$RKLB在Reddit上开始流行时，我买了它。他们在小型运载火箭方面有很高的成功率，但除此之外没什么特别的。 几个月后股价达到$28左右时，他们开始开发中型有效载荷，SpaceX以3500亿美元估值完成了一轮大额融资，我开始看到RocketLab在5年或10年（当时正在开发Neutron）内市值增长的潜力，并由此建立了确信度。 2. $TSM -> 我一直知道台积电(TSMC)对半导体至关重要，但因台湾地缘政治风险而未建立大仓位。但在~$245时，美国开始了关乎国家安全的最大规模AI基础设施建设，$NVDA等公司创下历史新高。 这一切的核心是$TSM。我认为如果它是美国公司，估值将超过3万亿美元。 3. $BTC -> 我一直喜欢比特币，大学时朋友向我介绍。我曾用它支付数字商品，因为当时的PayPal不支持匿名支付，我也不喜欢向商家透露身份。 我一直喜欢比特币作为价值存储/支付手段，但当美国政府+美联储最终支持比特币作为黄金的替代品时，它变成了高确信度持仓。 我有一篇关于美国政府为何对比特币+稳定币有战略利益的长篇论文，改天再发。 4. $HOOD -> 金融基础设施已破碎。业内人尽皆知。 我喜欢Robinhood，因为我认识的散户用户都在用。作为一家金融科技公司的运营者，他们开发产品的速度（甚至与初创公司相比）令人惊叹。 从信用卡产品到银行服务，再到投资，他们确实让一切变得更好，然后直接向其庞大的用户群发布产品。 当然，与半导体/超大市值公司相比，金融科技公司的增长有上限，但如果其银行服务成功并持续创新，未来可能成为一家6000亿美元+的公司。 _ 1. $NBIS - 起初我承认自己在不看基本面情况下进行了波段交易。一切在Mag7开始与所有Neoclouds签约，特别是微软与Nebius签署170亿-190亿美元合同时发生了改变，这完全赋予了它新的重估逻辑。我开始研究基本面和他们拥有的资产，对其增长率感到震惊。 我相信它在1-2年内轻松达到$400（1000亿+市值）。 2. $ALAB - 许多Mag7公司都在Stargate + AI数据中心建设中使用它们。当然，其营收数字相对于当前市值很小，但其利润率像$NVDA一样，且同比增长100%+，这很惊人。谁知道它们能增长多高。 _ 1. $WLAC - 现在是最有趣的一个，如果我对任何小盘股/仙股有强确信度，那就是这个。Boost已经与Fluidstack合作（后者已为$GOOGL合同构建了$CIFR和$WULF，并将它们的估值提升至40-70亿）。 而在目前6亿美元IPO下，这很容易增长到[某公司]的市值。（之前已发过关于投机基本面的小论文）。因此我认为这是最可能实现1000%增长的标的。 _ 我也提到过$FLY作为潜在1000%标的，或$AMD因OpenAI 1000亿+远期收入而成为绝佳买入，但这与单纯相信公司/资产的高确信度略有不同。
英文原文
This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list. These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀 Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction. 5 Years: $RKLB ($16 | $28) $TSM ($120 | $245) $HOOD ($11.27 | $18) $BTC ($3k | $57k) 2 Years: $NBIS ($28 | $99) $ALAB ($55 | $95) 1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x) $WLAC ($13 | $13) Here's what changed: 1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative. So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special. Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it. 2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk. But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs. In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+. 3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants. I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction. I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day. 4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it. I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing. From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase. Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation. _ 1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning. Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating. I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate. I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years. 2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing. Who knows how high they'll grow. _ 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B). And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything. _ I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.
-
基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
-
宏观恐慌提供买入机会，重点阐述$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的高赔率逻辑。
此外，由于特朗普的一条推文导致宏观恐慌突然重现，$SPY 下跌 1.65% 是一个绝佳的逢低买入机会。 举几个例子： $AMZN - 下跌 3.7% $AMD - 下跌 8.27% $HIMS - 下跌 8% $SNAP - 下跌 5.1% $META - 下跌 3.07% $WLAC 和 $NBIS 始终适合定投(DCA)。 （引用内容）： 自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资逻辑，如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的只有 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，即从当前（44 亿市值）上涨 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿市值的估算基于 $RKLB 的倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的收入积压订单）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列(Falcon-class)的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 公司最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的特征。空头指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险…… 他们应该问的问题是，诺斯罗普(Northrop)和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的小型发射公司之间的联合开发(CO-DEVELOPMENT)。 诺斯罗普此前确实有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前是有效的，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚将在 2026-2027 年由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载），已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的积压订单以及美国“金穹顶”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，如果 Firefly 在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大护城河成为下一个 SpaceX，购买 Firefly 的风险回报是不错的。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，我只是认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载的机会高于正常水平）。 显然，Rocketlab 实现可重复使用中型运载的成功概率更高，但这已反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，而 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。而且我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人(Rocketman)本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90%+ 的机会实现可重复使用中型运载飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，仅仅是因为太空 TAM 因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
英文原文
Also since macro fears randomly appeared today with a Trump tweet, it’s an amazing dip buy opportunity on $SPY 1.65% drop. Just some examples: $AMZN - down 3.7% $AMD - down 8.27% $HIMS - down 8% $SNAP - down 5.1% $META - down 3.07% $WLAC, $NBIS always good to DCA.
-
分析$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的潜力，认为其风险回报优于$RKLB。
自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资论点，现在分享如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的竞争对手是 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，较当前（44 亿美元市值）增长 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿美元的市值估算基于 $RKLB 的估值倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的订单积压）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下，毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列火箭的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的风险。看空者指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险... 他们应该问的问题是：诺斯罗普 (Northrop) 和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普，与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的发射公司之间的联合开发 (Co-development)。 诺斯罗普此前曾拥有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前运行正常，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚在 2026-2027 年可由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载火箭），这已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的订单积压以及美国“金穹”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，购买 Firefly 的风险回报比是合理的，前提是公司在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大的护城河，成为下一个 SpaceX。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，但我认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普合作存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的机会高于正常水平。） 显然，Rocket Lab 实现可重复使用中型运载火箭的成功概率更高，但这已经反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，相比之下 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿美元。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。另外，我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人 (Rocketman) 本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90% 以上的机会实现可重复使用中型运载火箭飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，只是因为太空 TAM（总可寻址市场）因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
英文原文
People have been asking for my $FLY thesis since my Reddit post, so here it is: Firefly is a rocket company like $RKLB, and is developing a reusable medium-lift rocket. The only one that exists is SpaceX. They target 2026-2027, and if they succeed, the company would re-rate to a 30-70B market cap, 1000-2000% from here (4.4B MC) More details: The 30-70B marketcap estimate is priced off $RKLB multiples, and only on medium-lift working. (I'm ignoring other business segments and current $1B+ revenue backlog). In a year with medium-lift: ~$0.9–1.3B revenue, with 30–40% gross margins at workable cadence (8–12 flights). Falcon-class pricing support this. So now the only question is, can FLY make it work? After Fly's individual company latest launch failure, the stock dropped 50% and the market is already pricing in the feature of failure. The bears are pointing to Alpha's failures for execution risk. HOWEVER, they're pricing the risk in completely wrong... The question they should be asking is, whether both Northrop + Firefly can make this work? This is a CO-DEVELOPMENT between Northrop, one of America's largest military contractors for Aerospace with some tiny $4B marketcap launch company. Northrop literally had its own medium-lift rocket before but they had to sunset it. Northrop’s prior launcher, Antares 230 worked before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, then the supply chain was cut off. However, Northrop faced an existential problem: it couldn’t build its own first stage anymore. So they went looking for a U.S. partner with ready-made propulsion and structures for the sake of time: Firefly. -> Motivation: Firefly’s Miranda engines offered a plug-and-play replacement to immediately build a medium lift launcher. And now you have a medium lift launcher in 2026-2027 that Firefly monetizes (because Northrop took a stake in the company), just need to make it re-usable, which is the hard part. But Northrop doesn’t just “help.” It structurally lowers risk across every aspect across the board. And Northrop’s system + Firefly’s new-space engines hits a scarce, high-demand moat (U.S. medium-lift with reuse), already validated by TacRS and a $1B+ backlog + US golden dome defense system catalyst. So, risk reward of buying Firefly on the company succeeding on Medium-Lift Launcher and developing a huge moat to be the next SpaceX, is decent. (I also have $RKLB in my portfolio too, I just see the opportunity of succeeding in reusable Medium Lift to be higher than normal because it medium-lift already existed with Northrop). Obviously Rocketlab has a higher probability of success achieving reusable medium lift, but that's already priced into its 32B+ marketcap, compared to a 4.4B Fly marketcap. I just find $FLY to be an interesting 10x moonshot at this valuation in the chance it works in the next year or two. Also I just really like rockets. I also had Grok calculate the odds since XAI is owned by Rocketman himself. _ Output: By end-2027, Rocket Lab has a 90%+ chance of achieving reusable medium-lift flights (likely by mid-2026), driven by their head start, proven execution, and in-house control. Firefly/Northrop reaches 75–80% probability, bolstered by Northrop’s legacy but tempered by Firefly’s newer operational track record. The extra year narrows the gap—Firefly could match or exceed Neutron’s cadence by late 2027 if Antares 330 flies on time and Miranda engines scale. In the event they both get it to work (big if), RKLB could re-rate to $60B marketcap, and $FLY could re-rate to 40B marketcap, just because of TAM of Space rapidly increasing from national security risks and corporate sector buildout, just might need to wait another year.
-
博主看好FLY，类比RKLB早期，计划长期持有。
@soulbiri1 我通常不太喜欢这种投机性公司哈哈，但我看好 $FLY。 它让我完全想起了 $RKLB 起步时的样子。我会长期持有这只股票。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I normally don’t like speculative companies this much lol but I like $FLY. Reminds me exactly of how $RKLB started. I’m holding this one for years
-
看好$FLY火箭发射及政府背书，类比早期$RKLB。
好吧，今晚最后一贴，我保证： $FLY 日食(ECLIPSE)可重复使用中重型火箭发射，目标2026年。 市值45亿美元。拥有极宽的护城河(Moat)，由政府背书+对国家安全至关重要。 我不需要多说了。 爱你们， 早期 $RKLB 投资者兼 Rocketlab 超级多头。 https://t.co/yAQpQGz1B5
英文原文
Okay last post of the night I promise: $FLY ECLIPSE REUSABLE MEDIUM-LIFT ROCKET LAUNCHES AIMING 2026. $4.5B MARKET CAP. MEGA MOAT, backstopped by government + critical for national security. I DON'T NEED TO SAY MORE. Love, Early $RKLB investor and Rocketlab Megabull. https://t.co/yAQpQGz1B5
-
认为$FLY低于IPO价是绝佳买点，拟加仓并类比$RKLB。
@ccjdjff $FLY 目前低于 IPO 价格是一个极其绝佳的入场点。我实际上可能会现在加仓，它真的让我想起了 $RKLB。https://t.co/EZL5CEHnj6
英文原文
@ccjdjff $FLY is an EXTREMELY GREAT entry point below IPO price right now. I'll probably put more into it now actually, it really reminds me of $RKLB. https://t.co/EZL5CEHnj6
-
博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
-
澄清LUNR属太空探索，RKLB属可重复使用火箭。
@Khagani_gahrh0 @SebastianS79509 不，$LUNR 是太空探索，$RKLB 是可重复使用火箭。
英文原文
@Khagani_gahrh0 @SebastianS79509 No $LUNR is space exploration, $RKLB is reusable rockets
-
作者分享RKLB早期投资经历，并表示愿为FLY承担风险。
@SebastianS79509 我的意思是，当所有人都认为 Rocket Lab ($RKLB) 无法盈利时，我在 14 美元左右就买入了。如果他们正在从事对国家安全的火箭发射至关重要的工作，我愿意承担 $FLY 的风险。
英文原文
@SebastianS79509 I mean I bought $RKLB at $14 or so when everyone thought they were unprofitable. If they’re working on rocket launches critical to national security, I’ll take the risk with $FLY.
-
博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
-
博主回复称持仓为50%比特币和50%火箭实验室。
@SebastianS79509 @rocket5010 50% 比特币(Bitcoin) | 50% $RKLB
英文原文
@SebastianS79509 @rocket5010 50% Bitcoin | 50% RKLB
-
分析NBIS、AMZN、SNAP等个股机会，看好AI基建及降息预期。
10月6日周一收盘思考： - $NBIS 是极好的逢低买入机会。早盘上涨5.78%后回落2.38%。从 $IREN 到 $CIFR 的所有其他新云(Neoclouds)公司都守住了4%-14%+的涨幅。Nebius可能受期权资金流影响，预计很快会补涨，我维持 $225 的目标价(PT)。 - $AMZN, $META 是两只在未来2-3个月应跑赢大盘并补涨的七巨头(Mag7)成员。尤其是亚马逊。 - $SNAP, $RDDT 是两个不错的反弹标的。Snapchat尤其因为收入变现模式的改变。如果你有耐心持有股票一两年，我预期会有50%+的回报，只是取决于市场何时将其定价。并非每个人都有耐心，且将资金用于 $SNAP 而非新云(Neoclouds)的机会成本可能不划算。 关于Reddit，我一直认为ChatGPT引用是其暴跌29%的借口，所以我已买入。 - $SPRB 吸引了所有人的注意。我预计它将从7500万美元市值继续上涨至1.5亿-2亿美元，但这就像玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，通常在重大事件后2-3天就会发生稀释。 - 像 $RKLB 这样的股票，只需持有哈哈。即使它是我最高信用的5年期长线标的，也确实高估了，但此时它可能会像 $PLTR 一样表现。 - $AMD 与 OpenAI 的交易对半导体行业极度利好。我预计 $TSM, $ASML, 能源股和新云(Neoclouds)将从AI基础设施建设中受益。主要的负面因素是 $CRWV，因为其对 $NVDA 的依赖，以及显然的NVDA本身，但新云(Neoclouds)并未锁定单一玩家，且已锁定5-10年以上的合同。 这仅对 $NVDA 的护城河理念造成微小影响，但尚无实质性影响。 我个人认为AMD可能会像 $ORCL 一样在反弹后回调，然后当市场开始计入远期收入时，像 $AVGO 一样表现。 话说回来，我不知道OpenAI从哪弄来这么多钱，承诺给Oracle、AMD等这些十亿或百亿美元的交易，如果它们估值只有5000亿的话哈哈。 - 黄金每天创历史新高，仅仅表明 $BTC 始终是好的买入标的，即使在 $123k，如果它最终成为对抗通胀的对冲工具。其市值约为黄金的1/10。 - $LTC 仍然是很好的买入标的，因为ETF获批。由于政府停摆，人们只是忘记了它尚未发生，但最终应该会获批。 - $VIRT 在 $32.5 是极好的买入，我会在这个区间进行成本平均（抱歉如果你在 $36 买了看涨期权，我的仓位下跌了约35%）。但再次强调，这是对VIX的非对称对冲（VIX隐含波动率很高用于对冲，VIRT被低估~6.3倍远期市盈率，有回购和低隐含波动率），所以即使仓位下跌，你的其他股票应该会上涨以平衡。 - 仍在研究其他受益于基础设施建设的能源股、小盘股如 $EOSE、存储如 $MU 等，这些是粉丝推荐的。我尽量不在自己充分了解前谈论太多。 - 如果你使用杠杆或做多，现在是时候了，直到一月。三次降息，市场可能正在提前交易十月的降息。
英文原文
Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts: - $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT. - $AMZN, $META two Mag7 that should outperform next 2-3 months and play catchup with the rest. Especially Amazon. - $SNAP, $RDDT two good recovery plays. Snapchat especially because of the revenue monetization changes. If you have the patience for shares for a year or two, I'd expect a 50%+ return, just whenever the market wants to price it in. Not everyone has patience and opportunity cost using the funds in $SNAP instead of Neoclouds might not be worth. Reddit I've maintained that the citations from ChatGPT is a BS reason for a 29% sell-off so I bought into it. - $SPRB caught everyone's attention. I do expect it to keep rising to a $150-$200m marketcap from $75m but it's like playing Russian Roulette, usually dilution happens 2-3 days after a major event. - Stuff like $RKLB, just need to hold lol. It's genuinely overvalued even if it's highest conviction 5Y long but at this point it might pull a $PLTR. - $AMD x OpenAI deal heavily bullish for semi industry. I expected $TSM, $ASML, energy stocks and Neoclouds to get a boost from AI infra buildout. Main negative ones were $CRWV, because of $NVDA dependencies and obviously NVDA, but Neoclouds aren't locked into one player, and they already have 5-10+ year contracts locked in. It just puts a tiny dent in the $NVDA moat idea but nothing material yet. I personally think AMD might pull an $ORCL where it dips past rally, and then ends up pulling an $AVGO when markets start pricing in forward revenue. Then again, I don't know where OpenAI is getting all this money to promise Oracle, AMD, etc. all these ten or hundred billion dollar deals if they're valued at 500B lol. - Gold rallying to ATH every day just signals that $BTC is always a good buy, even at $123k, if it ends up becoming a hedge against inflation. It's close to 1/10th the market-cap. - $LTC still a great buy because of ETF approval. There's the government shutdown so people just forgot it hasn't happened yet, but should get approved eventually. - $VIRT great buy at $32.5, I'd cost average around this range (sorry if you bought calls at $36, my positions are down 35% or so). But again it's an asymmetrical hedge to VIX (VIX IV very high for hedging, VIRT is undervalued ~6.3 forward p/e with buybacks an low IV), so even if positions are down, your other stocks should go up to balance it out. - Still looking into other beneficiaries of buildouts from energy stocks, small caps like $EOSE, memory like $MU, etc. that followers recommended. I try not to talk about something much until I'm informed myself. - If you're on leverage or going long, now is the time to do it until January. 3x rate cut, market probably frontrunning Oct rate cut now.
-
RKLB虽为高信念持仓，但因高估决定停止交易并持有。
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB 是我过去5年中信念最强的股票，但说实话，它确实被严重高估了。我刚刚学会不再交易它，而是持有。
英文原文
@SpaceSector001 $RKLB is my highest conviction stock over 5 years but it's really overvalued tbh. I just learned to not trade this anymore and hold.
-
分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。
我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。 我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。 所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。 即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。 这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。 如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。 再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。 如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。 无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。 （引用内容）： 激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。 另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。 你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。 这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。 然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票 例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。 例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。 此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。 随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。
英文原文
I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.
-
RKLB市值对标SpaceX，比特币达40万美元
@sunny21704 @WaggaDoo $RKLB 3500亿美元市值对标SpaceX。比特币$40万
英文原文
@sunny21704 @WaggaDoo $RKLB 350B marketcap to match SpaceX. Bitcoin $400k
-
给出RKLB一年目标价，并对比不同标的的预测周期。
@WaggaDoo $RKLB 12个月目标价$225。我没有足够的信息来给出该时间范围之外的预测。 对于像 $RKLB 或 $IBIT 这类标的，我很乐意给出5年期的预测。
英文原文
@WaggaDoo $225 PT 1 year. I don't have enough info to give predictions outside that timeframe. For stuff like $RKLB or $IBIT im happy giving 5 year predictions though
-
分享基于图表的波段交易策略，强调结合基本面与宏观分析的重要性。
我如何用图表进行波段交易，第二部分：短期（几周）+ 短中期（几个月）。 长期部分我会在另一篇帖子中讨论。 例1：$RKLB。仅凭直觉，在$40支撑位买入似乎是个好选择，$54卖出。通常下半部分（虚线）如$44也是不错的买入点，因为风险回报比良好，但你不会买到绝对底部。 你可以对像Rocketlab这样的股票这样做，因为长期来看，如果你持有足够久，即使它跌破$40，鉴于其基本面是强力买入（尽管目前略微高估），它很可能会恢复。 例2：$AMZN - 现在用正股买入是很好的选择。如果它跌破$210，你可以使用LEAPS（长期期权）。例如低于$200时，使用期限较短的看涨期权。 _ 了解基本面、宏观环境以及催化剂是否实质性影响也非常重要。如果未来收入大幅下降或行业利润率压缩，这些线条毫无意义。 很多时候它们因更非理性的因素下跌，例如GOOGL与苹果搜索之争，或者整体市场SPY下跌，但在这些情况下，如果没有实质性差异且公司持续增长，它们通常会再次上涨。再次强调，因人而异，在抄底时机上你需要分析图表以外的更多因素。这只是我所做工作的一部分。
英文原文
How I do swing trading with charts, Part 2: Short term (few week) + Short-Medium Term (few month). I'll do long term ones in another post. Ex 1: $RKLB. Just going off feels on this, seems like a great buy at $40 support, and $54 sell. Usually lower half (dotted line) like $44 is a good buy too cause risk-reward is good but u wont get the actual bottom. You can do it with stuff like Rocketlab since long term if you hold enough, even if it dips past $40 it will likely recover since it's a strong buy fundamentally albeit a tiny overvalued now. Example 2: $AMZN - Great buy with shares now. If it ever dips past $210, you can do leaps. Lower than $200 for example, shorter dated calls. _ Knowing fundamentals, macro, and whether catalysts are material or not is really also important. These lines mean nothing if forward revenue falls a lot or industry margins compresses. Lot of time they drop on more irrational things eg. GOOGL with Apple search, or maybe overall market SPY dipping but in those cases they usually rise up again if there's no difference + company keeps growing. Again different for everyone, you need to analyze more than the charts when timing bottoms. This is just part of what I do.
-
RKLB具国家安全战略价值，因发射成功可能暴涨故不卖看涨期权。
@Neat_Lama 最大的催化剂是中程有效载荷的“中子”(Neutron)火箭。对于 $RKLB，我确实不太关心宏观经济，因为我坚信它对国家安全的重要性就像 $TSM 对台湾一样重要，加上太空领域 = 规模巨大。这就是为什么我不对 RKLB 卖出看涨期权(CC)，因为成功的发射新闻可能会让它上涨50% lol。
英文原文
@Neat_Lama biggest catalyst is medium lift payload neutron. don't really care about macro with $RKLB since I believe it's important to national security like $TSM is to Taiwan + Space = grow big. that's why i dont sell CC's on RKLB cause successful launch news could bring it up 50% lol.
-
复盘RKLB和HOOD过早卖出，错失后续大幅上涨。
我曾在$15时持有约$600k的$RKLB，在$25时卖出，随后在$22至$30之间反复操作，但在$30多美元中期过早卖出，现在股价已达$47，这还不算太糟。此外，我在关税下跌时在$30持有$300k以上的$HOOD多头头寸，但在恢复至$38左右时卖出，否则现在本可获利数百万。
英文原文
Same I had like $600k of $RKLB at $15 sold at $25, kept flipping it between $22 and $30, sold it too early mid 30's and now it's $47, which isn't that bad. Also had $300k+ of $HOOD longs at $30 on the tariff dip, but sold on recovery at like $38, would have been a few million by now
-
博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
-
博主表示RKLB和NBIS可占其投资组合大部分仓位。
@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS 是我非常乐意让其占据我投资组合大部分仓位的标的。
英文原文
@rknfshgdt $RKLB $NBIS is something I'd be extremely comfortable with comprising majority of my port.
-
卖出ASTS获利，看好RKLB全栈发射能力及对标SpaceX的估值潜力。
我是说，我在$ASTS财报后股价跌至约37美元时持有，并在反弹时以26%+的利润卖出？不过我对这只股票了解不够深入，无法给出有依据的观点。就太空股而言，我更偏好$RKLB，因为他们提供类似Starlink的全栈服务，从低轨到中等运力载荷发射，并能在5-10年内规模扩张至SpaceX 3500亿美元的估值。
英文原文
I mean I had $ASTS after the earnings drop to like $37 and sold it for 26%+ or so on recovery? I don't know enough about the stock though to give an informed opinion though. In terms of space stocks, I'd prefer $RKLB just cause they do full stack like starlink type flatelite to medium lift payload launches and can scale to SpaceX's 350B valuation in 5-10 years.
-
博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
-
分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
-
长期仅投RKLB，短期看好NBIS和CIFR的超大规模扩张。
@Melissa09744266 除非是 $RKLB，否则我不做长期投资，因为太空领域关乎国家安全，拥有巨大的护城河，且仅次于 SpaceX。不过，我预计 4-5 年后 AWS 和 GOOGL 的超大规模云服务商芯片可能会准备好。在那之前，我们仍处于以 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 为代表的超大规模扩张模式。
英文原文
@Melissa09744266 I don't long term invest unless it's $RKLB since space is a national security issue, huge moat m, and #2 second to SpaceX. But yeah I'd expect in 4-5 years AWS, GOOGL hyperscaler chips might be ready around then. Until then, we're in hyperscaling mode with $NBIS and $CIFR.
-
博主区分成长与价值投资，推荐不同周期的个股组合。
@DeepIceValue 哈哈，我看到了 $NVO 和 $UNH，然后看了你的主页，意识到你更偏向价值投资(Value Investing)。如果让我选，1-2 年周期我会选 $NBIS 或 $TSM。3 年周期我会选 $RKLB。价值投资组合(Value Investing Basket)会是：$TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO。
英文原文
@DeepIceValue lol I saw NVO and UNH and then looked at your profile and realized it was more so value investing. If I had to choose, would be $NBIS or $TSM 1-2 years. Then $RKLB for a 3 year timeframe. Value investing basket would be: $TGT, $UPWK, $PYPL, $LULU, $UNH, $NVO
-
分享今日多只股票及加密货币的短期交易与长期持仓逻辑。
除了ORCL、$NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR之外，今天这些是一些有趣的（短期）投资组合新增/交易和入场点，如果你好奇的话，附上我的一点点理由： GEMI ~$23.9 - 有趣的短期波段交易，随时波动+-~5%。不过从市值(Market Cap)来看被高估了。 AMZN ~$219.78 - 为4个月的时间框架进行定投(DCA)。 Figma ~$52.65 - 之前跌了4-5%，预计它会恢复。利润率在10亿美元营收基础上高达90%或类似的离谱数字。有趣的短期交易。 RKLB ~ $46.29 - 在$43 -> 53之间有趣的波段交易。 CRDO ~ $142.21 - 只是觉得它可能在10月反弹，定投(DCA)。 BTC ~ $109.5k - 不太在意+-5k的波动，这是为了长期持仓。 KLAR ~ $39.95 - 有趣的波段交易。 ETOR ~ $40.95 - 难以置信的低估lol。我可能会持有这东西$1M，而价格就保持不变。 当然，还在ORCL、CIFR、NBIS、IREN等股票上卖出了虚值(Out of the Money)的周权备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls)。
英文原文
Apart from ORCL, $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR today these were some fun (short term) portfolio adds/trades and entries if you were curious + tiny bit of my reasoning: GEMI ~$23.9 - fun short term swing trade +- ~5% all the time. Overvalued though MC wise. AMZN ~$219.78 - DCA for 4 month timeframe. Figma ~$52.65 - was down like 4-5%, just expected it to recover. Profit margins are like 90% or something stupid off 1B revenue. Fun short term trade RKLB ~ $46.29 - fun swing trade between $43 -> 53. CRDO ~ $142.21 - Just thought it might rebound in Oct, DCA BTC ~ $109.5k - don't really care about +-5k too much, this is for long term positions. KLAR ~ $39.95 - fun swing trade ETOR ~ $40.95 - incredibly undervalued lol. I might end up with $1M of this thing and it will just stay the same price. And of course sold weekly covered calls on ORCL, CIFR, NBIS, IREN, etc... for way out of money strikes.
-
分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
-
博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
英文原文
I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
-
博主分享核心持仓与主动交易策略，反思若全仓操作收益或超6000%。
除非隐含波动率(IV)低于33%，否则我不做期权交易，比如 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，每笔都获利 $100K+。 通常我会持有一批高确信度的核心股票，如 $HOOD、$RKLB、$IBIT、$NBIS，并持有固定时间。 还有一篮子随机标的，如 $GRAB、$AMZN 等。 然后我会预留大量资金用于主动交易，这些我通常在 X 上发布。 有太多暴涨机会值得思考，比如减半前的 MSTR、Hood、SMCI、HIMS 等。我几乎抓住了每一次突破，但出于风险管理，只投入了组合中较小比例的资金。 如果每次我都全仓押注，哈哈，我的收益可能已经涨了 6000%+。
英文原文
I don't do options unless it's <33% IV things, such as $GOOGL or $TSM, both $100K+ profit each on. Usually I hold a core portfolio of high conviction stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $IBIT, $NBIS for a set amount of time. A basket of random stuff like $GRAB, $AMZN, etc. Then I set aside a good amount for active trading, which I usually post on X. Just too many run-ups to think about, like MSTR pre-halving, Hood, SMCI, HIMS, etc. I kind of caught every breakout but only put a smaller percentage of my portfolio into that for risk management. I'd probably be up 6000%+ if I full ported every time lol.
-
看好NBIS一年期表现，RKLB适合五年长持，除非短期暴涨。
@__visionxry__ $NBIS 是我在1年周期内最高确信度的股票。 我更愿意在5年周期内持有 $RKLB。 除非它像 $CRWV 那样随机在短期内暴涨600%，否则持有一年以获取长期资本利得是明智的。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ $NBIS is highest conviction stock I have for a 1 year timeframe. I'd be more willing to hold $RKLB on a 5Y timeframe. Holding a year for long term capital gains is smart unless it randomly pulls a $CRWV and goes up 600% in a short amount of time
-
NBIS获微软大单及融资，基本面改善，市值低估。
并非因为股价反弹。而是因为自那以后，$NBIS 获得了 $MSFT 多年总计 170 亿美元的订单，上周以良好条款筹集了 41 亿美元以上的资本支出(capex)，加上三天前预期的降息利好。我们还看到微软计算资源紧张，OpenAI 转向 $GOOGL。其他超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)也签署了更多计算资源协议，且更有可能签约。这些近期发生的事件，使得在 $NBIS 50 美元时仅为投机，除非是 $RKLB，否则我对投机性公司不会有高确信度。现在纯粹是从这里开始规模化扩张，未来营收复合增长数百倍。250 亿美元市值与未来增长不匹配。
英文原文
It's not because of a price rally. It's because since then, $NBIS has 17B from $MSFT for multiple years, $4.1B+ now raised for capex last week on good terms, with additional rate cut tailwind projected from 3 days ago. We've also seen MSFT be compute strained and OpenAI go to $GOOGL. With other hyperscalers sign deals for more compute and more likely to sign on. This all happened recently, before $50 NBIS was speculation and I wouldn't have high conviction in a speculative company unless it was $RKLB. Now it's pure scaling from here with forward rev compounding hundreds of percent. 25B marketcap does not match forward growth.
-
分析RKLB、HOOD、TSM及比特币的长期成长逻辑与估值。
嗯，我持有的不多，除了 $RKLB、$IBIT，可能还有 $TSM，$HOOD 但在当前价位下可能性较小。 我在 $18 时就多仓持有 $HOOD，但鉴于其已上涨 1000%+，受金融科技(Fintech)领域限制，很难看到它在 5 年内成长为 1 万亿美元市值。但它一直是我高确信度的多头持仓，因为拥有庞大的用户群并增加了更多产品（如银行服务）。 $RKLB 目前被严重高估，但 SpaceX 是最好的对标，SpaceX 现估值 3500 亿，太空行业因国家安全问题+商业化将保持增长。RKLB 无论 5 年还是 10 年，很可能都会成长到那个体量。 比特币(Bitcoin)很可能继续增长至黄金市值水平。 $TSM 是纯粹的垄断者，像英特尔(Intel)建设晶圆代工厂这样的噪音不太可能在未来 10 年内打破这一格局。
英文原文
Hmm, I don't have many but aside from $RKLB, $IBIT, prob $TSM, $HOOD but less so at these levels. I was long HOOD back at $18 but given its 1000%+ rise already, hard to see it growing into $1T in 5 years due to limits in fintech. But it was always a high conviction long due to consumer base + adding more products eg. Banking. $RKLB is insanely overvalued right now but Spacex is the best comparison, 350b valuation now and space industry will keep growing cause national security issue + commercialization. RKLB will likely grow into that whether it's 5 years from now or 10 Bitcoin will likely keep growing into gold marketcap. $TSM is a pure monopoly, no noise like Intel building foundries will likely disrupt that for another 10 years.
-
分析CRWV、NBIS及RKLB的股价潜力与时间框架
$CRWV 在3个月内从$41涨至$183，但部分原因是流通盘(less float)较小。 如果$NBIS 第四季度财报(Q4 earnings)大超预期，加上最乐观情境下的三次降息，我们可能看到它从$99涨至$225，否则我认为需要1年时间。 $RKLB 是我在5年维度上最看好的，但他们还需要额外两年时间用于中子火箭(Neutron)项目。
英文原文
$CRWV went from $41 to $183 in the span of 3 months but part of that was less float. We could see $NBIS similarly from $99 to $225 by March if they have a Q4 earnings blowout along with triple rate cut in the best scenario, but otherwise I'd say 1 year timeframe. $RKLB I like the most on a 5 year timeframe, but they do need an extra two years for Neutron.
-
NBIS是英伟达应对超大规模厂商自研芯片威胁的关键，短期增长潜力最大。
我同意，超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscaler）自研芯片是对 $NVDA 4万亿美元帝国及GPU供应商的最大威胁。但 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保护其护城河（Moat）并防止GPU利润率压缩的解决方案。 因此，他们有意支持像 NBIS 这样的公司，以分散来自超大规模云计算厂商的需求，并通过将依赖关系分散/限制计算资源给这些较小的 GPU 即服务（GPU as a Service）公司，来防止来自 Azure、AWS 的利润率压缩。 我们已经看到 $MSFT 在 OpenAI 的计算资源耗尽，因此他们不得不转向 GOOGL、CRWV、NBIS 等公司并建立多年期合同，即使他们也在构建定制 ASIC。 $NBIS 也不依赖于单一合同，因为其他超大规模云计算厂商正在接入，但那项170亿美元的大合同确实给了它更多的保障。我们也尚未看到其被完全定价，因为在此之前估值约为160亿美元+，而在稀释后现在为240亿美元。 我提到1年的时间框架是因为其上行空间最大，三次降息也有助于此。即使只有两次降息，论点依然成立，因为 NVDA 支持 NBIS + 超大规模云计算厂商的资本支出（Capex）流向这些 GPU 供应商。 3-4年后，我可能会更担心，这就是为什么我一直维持长期持有 $RKLB、$IBIT 等作为5年期的头寸，但 NBIS 在未来一年具有最大的增长潜力。
英文原文
I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression. So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies. We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs. $NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution. I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers. 3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.
-
建议未来几个月从NBIS切换至RKLB
@YodaStockInvest 未来几个月 $NBIS -> $RKLB
英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS for next few months -> $RKLB
-
博主吐槽平台移除其RKLB帖子，股价随后大涨。
@soulbiri1 当我在 $25 时发布我的 $RKLB 时，他们也移除了一条，随后它立刻涨到了 $45+。我想他们不喜欢香蕉。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 They removed my $RKLB one too when I posted it at $25 then it went to like $45+ right after. I guess they don't like bananas
-
调侃持仓数量，建议长期持有RKLB对标SpaceX。
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN，要是算上这些，我就有16、17、18只持仓了，哈哈。至于 $RKLB，就拿着它5-8年吧，总有一天市值会像 SpaceX 一样达到3500亿美元。
英文原文
@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN, and would be 16 17 18 lol. For $RKLB just hold it for 5-8 years, should be $350B market cap like SpaceX one day.
-
按确信度排序：5年首选RKLB，短期回报潜力亦最高。
@junyongisusing1 如果我有5年的时间框架，按最高确信度排序会是 $RKLB，然后是 $BTC，最后是 $TSM。 这份列表只是我对未来几个月回报潜力从高到低的最佳猜测。
英文原文
@junyongisusing1 If I had a 5 year timeframe it would be $RKLB then $BTC then $TSM in terms of highest conviction. This list is just my best guess on return potential from highest to lowest in the next few months.
-
分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
-
批评某博主不懂前沿股逻辑，警告勿做空无限风险股票。
他不傻，只是极度专注于生物科技领域，你应该关注他这方面的见解，而非其他领域。听了一些视频后，感觉他并不理解像 $RKLB 这样的前沿股票，且在做空“邪教式”股票方面给出了糟糕的建议。例如，对于 $RKLB，他未能理解中等载荷提升+Starlink/Flatlites服务潜力带来的回报潜力，而这些并未纳入他唯一关心的典型远期营收预测中。像 $QBTS 这类股票很烂，我只是说，做空具有无限亏损风险的“邪教式”股票是个极其愚蠢的主意。
英文原文
He's not dumb, he's just insanely specialized in biotech and that's what you should pay attention to him for, just not other things outside. It's just after listening to some videos, it doesn't seem he understands frontier stocks like $RKLB and gives bad advice on shorting cult stocks. For example, with $RKLB he doesn't quite get the return potential from medium lift payloads + service potential from Starlink/flatlites, which isn't baked into typical forward rev typical that he only cares about. Stuff like $QBTS is sht, I'm just saying that it's a really stupid idea shorting cult-like stocks with infinite losses.
-
批评RKLB大规模减持，类比GME/AMC泡沫。
@beavinvests 抱歉，自 $GME 或 $AMC 持有者为公司向市场抛售股票而欢呼以来，我还没见过如此多的妄想。$RKLB 在公开市场上抛售 7.5 亿美元，对抗任何买盘压力，这并不是一件值得兴奋的事。
英文原文
@beavinvests Sorry but I haven't seen this much delusion since $GME or $AMC holders cheered that the company is dumping stock on them. Having $RKLB sell $750m on open market against any buying pressure is not something to be excited about.
-
博主晒出多只股票交易成功案例，展示其交易记录以证明实力。
喜欢看大家晒盈利截图。看看我的 $RDDT 发帖历史——到目前为止，我分享的每一次突破都成功了：$GOOGL、2倍杠杆的 $HIMS、$ETH、$UPWK、$RKLB、$OSCR 都中了。去 X/Reddit 上翻翻我的历史记录，亲自看看。我是 X 的新人，但暂时在这里帮助大家学习交易。
英文原文
Love seeing people post profits. Check my $RDDT post history—so far, every breakout I’ve shared from $GOOGL, 2x $HIMS, $ETH, $UPWK, $RKLB, $OSCR has hit Scroll through my history on X/Reddit and see for yourself. I’m new to X but here temporarily to help people learn to trade
-
降息预期推动成长股反弹，机构提前布局，年底指数或涨5-8%。
分析一下这意味着什么：短期内，这对成长股(growth stocks)非常有利，因为成长股对利率(rates)高度敏感。 像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS、$IREN、$ALAB、$CREDO 这样的许多股票将创历史新高，而 $HIMS、$CRWV、$SMCI、$MRVL、$TSSI 等股票也将恢复至历史高点(ATH)。 机构今年提前押注了“九月疲软”(September weakness)（大约在比特币达到 12.4 万美元时），因此随着降息预期叠加，股票在 9 月初再次上涨。 由于今年早些时候因关税(tariffs)和高通胀(high inflation)导致市场大幅崩盘，标普 500 指数 ETF (SPY) 的表现并未超越往年，因此我们可以看到指数在年底前再上涨 5%-8%。 17 日的降息几乎板上钉钉，所以机构正在提前布局(front-running)。散户可能认为降息当日股票会上涨，但实际消息公布后可能会导致抛售(selloff)。
英文原文
Just an analysis on what this means: short term, it's great for growth stocks = since growth stocks have high sensitivity to rates. You have a lot of stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS, $IREN, $ALAB, $CREDO that will hit all time highs or with $HIMS, $CRWV, $SMCI, $MRVL, $TSSI, and others, recovering to ATH. Insitutions frontran "September weakness" this year (Around the time BTC reached $124k), so stocks climbed again early SEPT due to rate cut on top of it. SPY hasn't really outperformed previous years either with the massive market crash earlier this year from tarrifs + high inflation so we can see index go up another 5%-8% by EOY. Rate cut is almost certain on the 17th, so institutions are front-running it. Retail probably thinks stocks go up on rate cut date, but the actual news might lead to a selloff.
-
不看好SG但预期其反弹，更看好TSM等标的。
@moonman6577 我对 $SG 不太看好。如果让我挑选我看好（bullish）的股票，我会选 $TSM、$HOOD、$RKLB、$CREDO、$NBIS 等。但我认为 $SG 会反弹，因为它因短期期权（option）资金流而超卖（oversold），而且我单纯就是喜欢他们的沙拉。
英文原文
@moonman6577 I'm not too bullish on $SG. If I had to pick stocks I'm bullish on it would be $TSM, $HOOD, $RKLB, $CREDO, $NBIS and others. But I see $SG rebounding since it's oversold from short-term option flows and I simply just like their salad.
-
趁恐慌在 $8.22 买入 $SG，认为极度恐惧是最佳买点。
当人们感到恐慌时，我在股价跌至 $8.22 时买入 $100k 的 $SG。没有任何消息，股价下跌 8.2%+。与此同时，市场以及像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$ALAB、$CREDO、$HIMS、$APP 这样的高贝塔股票正在上涨。最佳的买入时机是在散户恐慌抛售他们 $40 买入的筹码时的极度恐惧时刻 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0
英文原文
While people are scared, bought $100k $SG on the drop to $8.22. No news, down 8.2%+. Meanwhile markets and high beta stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $ALAB, $CREDO, $HIMS, $APP are rising. Best time to buy is on the extreme fear when retail are selling the shares they bought at $40 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0
-
UPWK启动回购，低估值高利润，无视季节性风险。
$UPWK 刚刚宣布启动 1 亿美元的股票回购计划，回购规模约占其流通股的 5%。 让我们再次重申以下几点： 1. 市值约 20 亿美元，年营收 7.73 亿美元，毛利率 77.8%。 2. 拥有巨额现金储备，盈利能力强，市盈率约 9 倍。扩张中的利润率 + 新业务收购并未反映在远期营收预期中。 如果你担心 $RKLB、$CRWV、$IREN、$HIMS、$WULF 等 9 月份的高贝塔股票，当你的市值如此低且正在“印钞”时，季节性因素就不重要了。 Upwork 可能是当前市场中被低估且利润极其丰厚的股票。
英文原文
$UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program. Let's reiterate this one more time: 1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins. 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue. If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money. Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.
-
博主列出各领域高增长潜力股，预测5年千倍回报。
基于当前估值，我5年1000%回报的“登月”组合(Moonshot baskets)。 太空 - $RKLB (2200亿) AI - $CRWV (4700亿) 半导体(Semi) - $CREDO (2000亿), $TSSI (38亿) 加密货币(Crypto) - $BKKT (18亿) 金融科技(Fintech) - $DJT (490亿) 社交(Social) - $BMBL (62亿) 健康(Health) - $HIMS (950亿) 软件(Software) - $UPWK (190亿) 你们的选择是什么？
英文原文
My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?
-
BKSY基本面差，但受太空板块带动补涨，交易成功。
关于 Blacksky ($BKSY) 的投资逻辑，老实说，这是一家相当糟糕的公司。然而，Planet Labs $PL 以及像 $RKLB $RDW 这样的卫星/太空公司此前曾出现过大幅飙升，而 Blacksky（行业相关）当时却毫无动静。最终它的价格补涨跟上了，所以这笔交易做对了。
英文原文
As for thesis on Blacksky ($BKSY) honestly, pretty terrible company. However, Planet Labs $PL + Satellite / Space companies like $RKLB $RDW had a huge spike awhile ago and Blacksky (industry adjacent) hadn't moved at all yet. It ended up catching up in price, so it worked.