$HIMS
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解释自己受欢迎部分来自关注关键瓶颈而非卖社区或技术分析。
回复 @VJNCapital：我刚加入时，主要是一些人在卖昂贵社区付费墙或技术分析。 如果有人公开 thesis，大家都挤在同样的大股票 $PYPL 或 $UNH 上。或者追 $HIMS 这样的热门名字。 我受欢迎的很大一部分原因，是专注于关键……
英文原文
@VJNCapital When I first joined it was primarily folks trying to sell expensive community paywalls or TAs. Everyone crowded around the same large stock $PYPL or $UNH investing if they had public thesis. Or hype names like $HIMS. Large part of my popularity was focusing on critical
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批评伪专家只会堆术语不懂底层技术
我百分之百确定，如果现实里见到你们这些“photonic memory（光子内存）”专家，500 个里有 498 个都讲不清 CXL 内存池化、KV cache 基础设施，以及 $PENG 到底是怎么从中变现的。 这就是为什么我现在时间线上总能看到一堆和技术无关的 $RKLB、$HIMS，或者非技术型 AI 专家。 你们在我的帖子下面胡乱评论，把 M7U MOCVD capex 和 $TSEM 这些完全不相关的东西说错，或者把每个术语都混成像 $SMCI 集成商那样，还硬往 photonics IP 上套。 然后就在我每条帖子下面塞满 buzzword。
英文原文
I'm 100% sure if I met all you "photonic memory" experts in real life. 498 out of 500 of you couldn't explain CXL memory pooling or KV cache infrastructure and what $PENG actually does to derive revenue off that. This is why I'm seeing all these random $RKLB, $HIMS, or non technical AI experts on my timeline now. Backseat commenting completely wrong things about M7U MOCVD capex and $TSEM that aren't related. Or conflating every single term like an $SMCI integrator with photonics IP. Then just pitching buzzwords every under every one of my posts.
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别拿 HIMS 的药和 TSM 的 FAU 供应商相比
@mrng2019 为什么要把 $HIMS 的睾酮药片，和 $TSM 的 COUPE FAU 供应商放在一起比呢。
英文原文
@mrng2019 Why are we comparing $HIMS testosterone pills with the $TSM FAU supplier for COUPE.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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HIMS 开始被注意到
看起来 $HIMS 终于开始被注意到了，今天涨了 +8.64%。 肽业务和收购都在起飞？ 让我有点意外的是，虽然基本面在改善，SI 还保持在 36%。 我很想看看多头和空头最后会怎么演。
英文原文
Looks like $HIMS is finally getting some attention, up +8.64% today. Peptide arc and acquisitions go brrr? Caught me by surprise why the SI is still 36% despite improving fundamentals. I’m very curious to see how this all plays out with the longs vs. shorts. https://t.co/CtpscjKIxl
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TTD/HIMS/RDDT 都有均值回归机会
像 $TTD 在 22 美元这样的价位是有吸引力的，大概还有 40% 到 50% 的上行空间，能回到低 30 美元。 $HIMS 在 28 美元也差不多，我能看到它均值回归到 40 美元。 还有 $RDDT，我在 140 美元附近做多，现在也还可以。
英文原文
Stuff like $TTD at $22 is compelling, probably 40-50% upside back to low 30's.. Same with $HIMS at $28, I can see mean reversion to $40. And $RDDT at $163, went long around $140, posted some thesis on the way down to $125, but glad it's recovered a bit. Could probably chop a bit but I do see it recovering to $200+ in better macro.
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认为它至少会慢慢回到 40 美元。
@realstockfox 我觉得它至少会随着时间回到 40 美元左右吧？我们等等看。
英文原文
@realstockfox I think it at least recovers to $40 over time? We’ll see
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澄清自己谈的是 HIMS 和药片，并确认有持仓。
@commieserenity 这个问题问得有点怪，因为我说的是 $HIMS 和他们的药片。 不过是的，我有持仓，之前也已经披露过了。
英文原文
@commieserenity Thats a weird question to ask considering I’m talking about $HIMS and their pills. But yes I have positions, as I’ve disclosed earlier
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HIMS 还是太低估
即便在以下情况之后，$HIMS 仍然下跌了 44%，这件事还是挺不可思议的： 1. $NVO 去风险化 + 合作 2. 多项全球收购扩大了 DTC 分销网络 3. 肽类叙事，Huberman 还说在这些条件下 HIMS 会起飞 4. 进入了更友好的宏观环境 5. 空头比例达到了不可持续的 36%+ 好消息是：空头比例不可能占流通盘太多……所以随着时间推移，回补本身就会形成买盘压力，只要基本面改善，向下空间也会被限制住。
英文原文
It’s still pretty incredible $HIMS is down 44% even after: 1. $NVO de-risking + partnership 2. Multiple global acquisitions expanding DTC distribution network 3. Peptide arc, with Huberman saying HIMS was set to soar under these conditions 4. Entering a friendlier macro climate. 5. Short interest reaching unsustainable 36%+ The good news is: short interest can only be so much of the float… So it’s inherent buying pressure to cover over time, which does limit downside if fundamentals improves.
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说 Huberman 也认为 HIMS 会大涨。
Huberman 的确说过 $HIMS 在今天这种走势里会一路上去…… 看到斯坦福教授怎么看公开市场股票，也挺有意思的。 https://t.co/jqVtpEaoGB
英文原文
Huberman did say $HIMS was set to soar… in this type of arc playing out today. Interesting to see takes from Stanford professors on public equities. https://t.co/jqVtpEaoGB
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确认自己有 HIMS 持仓。
@Yolo365247isme 我有 $HIMS 的持仓。
英文原文
@Yolo365247isme I have positions in $HIMS.
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提到 Huberman 上月说 HIMS 会因 peptides 起飞。
@Ud197601 不太确定……不过 Andrew Huberman 上个月确实说过，在这种情况下，$HIMS 会因为 peptides 而起飞。 https://t.co/ARknCoXMX6
英文原文
@Ud197601 Not quite sure... But Andrew Huberman did say $HIMS was set to soar from peptides last month in this type of scenario. https://t.co/ARknCoXMX6
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称该公告是 HIMS 收入再加速的最强催化。
这条公告是到目前为止最利好 $HIMS 收入再加速的催化剂。 而且背景还是： - 流通盘有 30%+ 被做空 - 新的 $NVO 合作 / 诉讼刚出 - 新的全球并购 - 宏观环境回暖。 股价现在仍只有 25 美元，低于去年 70 美元。 做空者很可能要麻烦了： $HIMS 可以以他们复合产品常见的 70%-80% 毛利率，去抢占 peptides 这个“灰色市场” TAM 的理想蛋糕。 - 例如：Healing：BPC-157 和 Thymosin beta-4 - 头发与皮肤：GHK-Cu - 减重与增肌：MOTS-c 和 Ibutamoren 而且借助新的并购，它们现在大概成了全球最大的独立 DTC 分销网络…… 所以只要跑一个 peptide 方案订阅，每位订户每月 150 到 300 美元，20 万订户就是 3.6 亿美元以上的高毛利 ARR。 这还只是一个例子，但现在它们已经有全球客户网络了。 去年他们还烧了 capex 去收购 peptide 生产设施……现在这已经变成一个巨大的现金奶牛业务。 我之前就说过，$HIMS 要让空头回补，需要基本面发生变化，而这条消息大概就是市场数据上看到的那个信号。 而 $HIMS 正在因为监管去风险而变成一家基本面更扎实的公司。
英文原文
This announcement is the most bullish catalyst for $HIMS revenue re-acceleration to date. This is amid: - 30%+ of the float sold short - new $NVO partnership/lawsuit dropped - new global acquisitions - recovering macro climate. The share price is still $25, down from $70 last year. Short sellers are likely in trouble: $HIMS can capture market share at the ~70%-80% gross margins typical of their compounded products for the holy grail of the "Grey Market" TAM for peptides. - EG. Healing: BPC-157 and Thymosin beta-4 - Hair & Skin: GHK-Cu - Weight Loss & Muscle: MOTS-c and Ibutamoren And now they're probably the world's largest independent DTC distribution network to date from their new acquisitions... So just running a peptide protocol subscription between $150 to $300, for 200k subscribers is $360M+ in high-margin ARR. As just one example, but now they have a worldwide net of customers. They burned through capex last year to acquire peptide manufacturing facilities too... so now that's turned into a massive cash-cow business. I said $HIMS would need fundamental changes in order to force shorts to cover, and this is probably that signal as seen with market data. And $HIMS is turning into a fundamentally sound company after regulatory de-risking.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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看好HIMS与TEM结合布局个性化AI医疗，认为市场潜力巨大
个性化AI医疗很可能是一个巨大的市场。没有人想早死。将 $HIMS 与 $TEM 结合具有巨大潜力。这里有一个GitLab CEO的例子：2023年，Sijbrandij被诊断出骨肉瘤；2024年7月，他宣布癌症复发了，尽管进行了多种治疗；到2024年底，他已经用尽了标准医疗方案的全部选择。没有选择接受死亡，Sijbrandij决定像构建GitLab一样将他的癌症作为一个工程问题来处理。他开始向ChatGPT输入大量的个人医疗数据，包括扫描结果、血液检测结果和组织样本数据。ChatGPT和AI在识别突变后提出了新的靶向治疗方案，然后确定如何攻击这些突变。在此基础上，他申请了未获批准、处于试验阶段的药物并获得了用药。这个方法奏效了。Sijbrandij用AI阻止并扭转了晚期预判。我们已经看到了这个成功案例（ $TEM 明确列为他用于肿瘤批量RNA测序的合作伙伴）。最近也有一个人用AI治愈了自己的狗。如果你能够将 $HIMS（直销医疗分销网络）和 $TEM（个性化测序和AI治疗）结合成一个可扩展的产品，潜力是巨大的（尽管极具挑战性）。全球人口都是潜在市场。这类似于 $AXTI InP（磷化铟）在超大规模数据中心的情况：人们会不惜代价避免死亡（这就是瓶颈）。这只是未来医疗发展方向的一个缩影。
英文原文
Personalized AI medicine will likely be huge. Nobody wants to die early. Combining $HIMS to $TEM has immense potential. Here's just one example with Gitlab's CEO: > In 2023, Sijbrandij was diagnosed with osteosarcoma > In July 2024, he announced the cancer had returned, despite multiple treatments > By late 2024, he had reached the absolute end of standard of care medical options. > Rather than accepting death, Sijbrandij decided to treat his cancer the same way he built GitLab as an engineering problem > He began feeding ChatGPT massive amounts of his personal medical data from scans, blood test results, and tissue sample data. > ChatGPT and AI made novel targeted treatments after identifying mutations, then how to attack them > From there, he applied for unapproved, experimental drug and received it > The approach worked. Sijbrandij managed to stall and turn around a terminal prognosis with AI. We've seen this success story with Gitlab's CEO ( $TEM was explicitly listed the partner he used for the bulk RNA sequencing of his tumor ). As well as someone curing their own dog with AI recently. The potential if you can combine $HIMS (DTC distribution network) and $TEM (Personalized sequencing and AI treatment) into a scalable product is massive (though extremely challenging). The entire human population is the TAM. And similar to the $AXTI InP situation with hyperscalers: People will pay anything to not die (bottleneck). This is just a hint into where the future of healthcare is heading.
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认为诺和诺德撤诉并合作 HIMS 让很多人措手不及
@alc2022 这事说得通，不过 $NVO 撤诉并转而和 $HIMS 合作，对大多数人来说确实是个意外。 这一下明显打了很多人一个措手不及，尤其是那些没回补、还以为 $HIMS 会完蛋的做空者。
英文原文
@alc2022 Makes sense though given $NVO dropping the lawsuit and partnering with $HIMS was a surprise to majority of people. Definitely caught a lot of people off guard, especially short sellers that didn’t cover and thought $HIMS was going under
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Huberman 点名 HIMS，进一步强化多头叙事
斯坦福神经科学家 Andrew Huberman，也是健康领域最有影响力的人物之一，刚刚公开点名了 $HIMS。 他还说，在一个非常现实的情景下，它有望“腾飞”。 不是每天都能看到这种“行走的医学广告牌”隐性在给 $HIMS 站台做多。 我很好奇，那些还在做空 41%+ 流通盘的人到底在想什么？
英文原文
Andrew Huberman, the Stanford neuroscientist and one biggest voices in the health, just spotlighted $HIMS. And said it was set to “soar” in a very realistic scenario. Not everyday do you have the walking billboard of medicine implicitly pitching $HIMS as a long. Curious what short sellers were thinking selling 41%+ of the float short?
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从基本面角度看 HIMS，但空头挤压风险很高
我一直想从基本面角度聊 $HIMS。 但有一点必须强调： $HIMS 的方向性空头现在像被困住了。 股价已经涨了 64.15%，到 26.5 美元了（虽然仍比 70 多美元的高点低）。 与此同时，空头持仓却增加到了创纪录的 41.6%。 这可能会形成剧烈的反馈回路，因为空头会越来越浮亏。 不过，这一切都取决于股价能否继续被买盘和基本面改善推高；只有这样，他们才会被迫平仓。 否则如果价格横盘，他们可以在很长时间里继续维持空头头寸（借券成本也低），然后慢慢回补。 话虽如此，我个人还是在场，挺期待看看 $HIMS 能交出什么： 一方面是最近类似 $META 的全球并购扩张； 另一方面是类似 $HOOD 的交叉销售潜在收入机会。 随着 $HIMS 在 $NVO 意外合作之后基本面快速改善，我个人真的觉得它有机会创造历史。
英文原文
I try to talk about $HIMS from a fundamental standpoint. But this cannot be understated: $HIMS directional shorts look trapped. The stock price is now up 64.15% to $26.5 (still down from highs of $70s). While short interest increased to record highs of 41.6%. There may be a violent feedback loop as short positions go more underwater. However; this is contingent on the underlying stock going up from buying pressure and increasing fundamentals. In order for their positions get liquidated. Otherwise, if prices stagnates, they can leave their short sales in for extended periods of time (low borrow rate) and slowly buy to cover. That being said, I'm personally along for the ride and looking forward to seeing what $HIMS can deliver: Both from their recent $META-like global acquisitions spree + $HOOD-like cross selling latent revenue opportunities. With $HIMS rapidly improving fundamentals, from the surprise $NVO partnership: I personally see a real opportunity for $HIMS to make history.
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列出自己最喜欢的一篮子名字
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI、$AAOI、SK 海力士、$RDDT、$HIMS
英文原文
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI, $AAOI, SK Hynix, $RDDT, $HIMS
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认为做空 HIMS 是极其愚蠢的
做空者方向性加仓 $HIMS，真是蠢到家了。 他们最近的收购直接给 $HIMS 带来了全球 DTC 医疗零售市场。 交叉销售机会极其潜在，而且很难建模。 在这种情况下，这根本不是你平常那种有对冲的套利交易，所以风险管理非常差。
英文原文
Extremely stupid for short sellers to directionally double down on $HIMS. Their recent acquisitions just gave $HIMS the global retail market for DTC healthcare. The cross selling opportunities are extremely latent and hard to model. So very bad risk management, given it’s not your typical hedged arbitrage trade.
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继续看多 HIMS 的商业化潜力与空头挤压
$HIMS 现在又涨回了 14.22%。 他们全球 DTC 零售分发护城河中尚未释放的潜在收入极其惊人。 这也让人联想到 $META 早期的并购，以及 $HOOD 的交叉销售能力。 $HIMS 仍然比 70 多美元的高点低不少，但它已经通过收购三家全球主要竞争对手，而且几乎没有监管阻力。 更妙的是：那些把 40%+ 流通盘方向性做空的空头，已经被 $NVO 的意外合作和诉讼终止彻底困住了。 我个人会在这里继续持有并做多 HIMS。 如果管理层真能把这张全球零售分发网络有效变现，用在医疗上，这个风险回报是值得的。
英文原文
$HIMS is now back up 14.22%. The untapped latent revenue from their their global DTC retail distribution moat is extreme. And draws parallels to the early acquisitions from $META. As well as the cross-selling capabilities of $HOOD. $HIMS is still down from it's $70+ highs, after acquiring three major global competitors without regulatory friction. And best of yet: Shorts that sold 40%+ of the company short directionally, are completely trapped from the surprising $NVO partnership + lawsuit termination. I would personally hold and go long here on HIMS. The risk/reward on management effectively monetizing that massive, global retail distribution network for healthcare seems worth it.
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用 Cramer 反向指标串起一串当日强势股
Jim Cramer：“今天就是没法赚钱的一天。” 当天： $AXTI：+15.08% $AAOI：+11.5% $HIMS：+6.05% $LITE：+7.06% $SNDK：+6.12% $IQE：+19.08% SK 海力士：+4.38% $MU：+4.65% $COHR：+4.86% 这和前一个帖子里周日提到的“150-200 美元原油”呼应上了。 Cramer 指标又一次显灵了。
英文原文
Jim Cramer: “Just impossible Day to Make Money”. Today: $AXTI: +15.08% $AAOI: +11.5% $HIMS: +6.05% $LITE: +7.06% $SNDK: +6.12% $IQE: +19.08% SK Hynix: 4.38% $MU: +4.65% $COHR: +4.86% This is following the previous post about “$150-200” Oil on Sunday. The Cramer indicator strikes again.
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HIMS估值核心在于其DTC分销网络，类比HOOD的规模化效应。
是的，围绕 $HIMS 销售的个别产品存在大量看空/看多案例的讨论。 我认为分析师/市场的方法错了： 我认为 $HIMS 的主要估值来源于其通过最近3次收购建立的独特全球零售直接面向消费者(DTC)分销网络。 这解锁了大量潜在收入流+变现机会，就像 $HOOD 为金融行业规模化所做的那样。
英文原文
Yes there's a lot of bear/bull case discussion around individual products $HIMS sells. I think analysts/markets are approaching it wrong: $HIMS main valuation I see is derived from their unique global retail DTC distribution network that they now have with their 3 recent acquisitions. This unlocks a lot of latent revenue stream + monetization, like what $HOOD did for the financial industry to scale.
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从分销网络和零售捕获角度评估HIMS估值。
@RawlJohns 我纯粹是从他们的分销网络(Distribution Network) + 零售捕获(Retail Capture)角度来看待 $HIMS 的估值。并不是看他们销售的单颗药丸，所以不太确定。
英文原文
@RawlJohns I'm purely looking at $HIMS valuation from their distribution network + retail capture angle. Not the individual pills they sell, so not sure.
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类比META和HOOD，看好HIMS全球DTC网络变现潜力。
难道没人看到 $HIMS、$META 和 $HOOD 之间的相似之处吗？ $HIMS 真的刚刚收购了全球最大的几家竞争对手： - Zava（欧洲/英国） - Livewell（加拿大） - Eucalyptus（澳大利亚/日本） 而且没有被反垄断阻止？ $META 十年前收购 WhatsApp 和 Instagram 这类公司时，也是几乎没有遇到阻力。 如今，由于 $META 最终成为万亿美元级垄断企业后留下的监管 PTSD，社交媒体公司已经不能再四处大举收购。 而 $HIMS 在这一轮并购之后，已经成为全球最大的独立零售 DTC（直接面向消费者）分销网络。 现在它只需要弄清楚，如何像 $HOOD 面向金融产品那样做交叉销售？ $HOOD 此前也遇到过 SEC 和 Gary 试图阻止其所有加密产品的情况。但自从监管麻烦清除后，他们通过向零售用户交叉销售金融科技产品，成功扩张成了一家700亿美元公司。 我看到了 $NVO / 监管机构试图阻止 $HIMS 产品供应之间的强烈相似之处。 不过，在 $NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作、FDA 也撤回威胁后，这种监管不确定性已经消除。潜力是存在的？ 我不可能是唯一一个看到 $HIMS 全球 DTC 零售分销网络及其潜在收入变现机会的人吧？
英文原文
Does nobody else see the parallels to $HIMS and $META and $HOOD? $HIMS literally just bought out the largest players around the world: - Zava (Europe/UK) - Livewell (Canada) - Eucalyptus (Australia/Japan) Without antitrust blocking it? $META did that a decade ago with companies like WhatsApp and Instagram with minimal friction. Now no social media company anymore can go on buying sprees due to regulator PTSD after $META ended up a trillion dollar monopoly. $HIMS now is the largest independent global retail DTC distribution network in the world, after their M&A spree. And just needs to figure out how to cross-sell products like what $HOOD did for financial products? $HOOD previously had the SEC + Gary trying to block all their crypto offerings. But ever since they got regulatory headaches cleared up, they managed to scale to become a $70B company off cross-selling fintech products to their retail audience. I'm seeing strong parallels to $NVO / Regulators trying to block $HIMS product offerings. However, that regulatory uncertainty is now cleared up after $NVO partnered with $HIMS and FDA dropped their threats. The potential is there? I can't be the only one who sees potential from $HIMS global DTC retail distribution network and latent revenue monetization?
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分析$HIMS收购潜力及变现依赖管理层执行力
真是出色的分析！我没想到自己会站出来为 $HIMS 辩护，但他们确实成功收购了以下企业：Zava（欧洲/英国）、Livewell（加拿大）、Eucalyptus（澳大利亚/日本）。他们还建立了全球最大规模的医疗保健零售客户网络（retail capture），且未受到联邦贸易委员会(FTC)或监管机构的制裁。这种潜力让人想起 $META 收购 WhatsApp 及其他平台的时期，并结合了 $HOOD 交叉销售(cross-selling)新功能的策略。最终，如何从这个巨大的分销网络中变现，完全取决于管理层的执行力。
英文原文
정말 훌륭한 분석입니다! 제가 나서서 $HIMS 를 옹호하게 될 줄은 개인적으로 꿈에도 몰랐지만, 그들은 실제로 다음 기업들을 인수하는 데 성공했습니다: Zava (유럽/영국) Livewell (캐나다) Eucalyptus (호주/일본) 그리고 세계 최대 규모의 헬스케어 리테일 고객 네트워크(retail capture)를 구축해 냈습니다. 이 모든 것을 FTC나 규제 당국의 제재 없이 해냈죠. 이런 잠재력을 보면 과거 $META 가 WhatsApp과 기타 플랫폼들을 인수했던 때가 확실히 떠오릅니다. 여기에 $HOOD 가 새로운 기능들을 교차 판매(cross-selling)했던 전략이 결합된 모습입니다. 결국, 이 거대한 유통 네트워크를 어떻게 수익화할지 그 방법을 찾아내는 것은 전적으로 경영진의 실행력에 달려 있습니다.
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看好$HIMS全球并购后的规模及分销优势，类比$META和$HOOD。
不太是吧？Ro 只在美国。$HIMS 在完成对其他全球重量级玩家的一轮并购后，规模要大得多。 这个全球分销网络没有因为反垄断被阻止，这让我看好 $HIMS，因为我看到了十年前 $META 收购潮的相似之处，也看到了 $HOOD 通过交叉销售变现零售用户的能力。
英文原文
Not really? Ro is US only. $HIMS is much larger in scale after their M&A spree of all the other global heavyweights. That global distribution network without any of them getting blocked by antitrust makes me bullish on $HIMS because I see parallels to $META's acquisition spree a decade ago + $HOOD's capacity to monetize retail audience through cross-selling.
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区分网络效应与资金/服务粘性，解析RDDT、HOOD及HIMS的护城河差异。
这不是网络效应。 像 $RDDT 这样的社交媒体具有网络效应，这就是为什么你不能在一天内用 vibe coding 复制 Reddit 并指望人们使用它。 $HOOD 具有高粘性，因为用户的资金在那里，且难以转出。 $HIMS 具有高粘性，因为更换医疗服务提供商很困难。
英文原文
It's not a network effect. Social media like $RDDT has a network effect, which is why you can't vibe code Reddit in a day and expect people to use it. $HOOD is sticky because people have their money there and it's difficult to transfer off. $HIMS is sticky because it's difficult to switch medical providers.
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类比Meta，看好HIMS全球并购后的变现潜力
完全同意，我看到 $HIMS 与 $META 十年前收购所有社交媒体公司的平行之处。 这在今天行不通，因为联邦贸易委员会(FTC)会阻止像 $RDDT 这样的公司收购其竞争对手如 $SNAP。 但 $HIMS 完成了一轮全球并购(M&A)热潮，通过收购欧洲的 Zava、加拿大的 Livewell 以及面向澳大利亚/日本的 Eucalyptus，建立了零售医疗分发的垄断护城河。 因此，既然 $HIMS 设法建立了全球零售医疗用户基础……随着监管问题得到解决，存在巨大的潜在收入变现潜力。
英文原文
Absolutely, I see the $HIMS parallel to $META acquiring all the social media companies a decade ago. This wouldn't work today since FTC would block companies like $RDDT acquiring all their competitors like $SNAP. But $HIMS pulled off a global M&A spree, building a monopoly moat over retail healthcare distribution from Zava in Europe, Livewell in Canada, and Eucalyptus for Australia/Japan. So, now that $HIMS somehow managed to build capture the global retail base for healthcare... With regulatory issues cleared up, there's a lot of latent revenue monetization potential.
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HIMS价值源于分销网络，且成功完成全球DTC并购。
@iraw000 我的观点是，$HIMS 的价值源于其分销网络，类似于 $AMZN 的配送体系，而非其销售的商品（如电脑、书籍）。此外，他们成功在全球范围内收购了主要的医疗 DTC（直接面向消费者）公司，且未遭遇监管阻碍。
英文原文
@iraw000 My argument is that $HIMS value is derived from their distribution network like $AMZN delivery. Not by the drugs they sell (eg. computers, books). And they managed to acquire the major healthcare DTC companies globally without getting blocked.
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HIMS的DTC分销网络是核心护城河，监管风险已解除，上行空间明确。
你刚才是不是直接跳过了整篇帖子？ 网络捕获能力和面向大众市场的零售分销网络才是 $HIMS 的护城河，而不是他们销售的药丸。 而且这条护城河非常深厚。对于潜在的变现流而言，这一点怎么强调都不为过。 例如 $HOOD 通过交叉销售新产品。 $HIMS 确实是首个在医疗领域达到这种规模的直接面向消费者(DTC)的企业。就像 $HOOD 在18美元时一样，总会有看空的情况。 $HIMS 的上行空间显而易见，且他们主要的监管问题已于上周五解决。 现在的关键在于他们能否找到新的变现途径。
英文原文
Did you just skip over the entire post? Network capture and retail distribution network at masses is $HIMS moat, not the pills they sell. And that moat is massive. This cannot be understated for latent monetization streams. eg. $HOOD with cross-selling new products. $HIMS is genuinely the first of its kind to reach this sort of scale DTC for healthcare. And there's always going to be bear cases like with $HOOD with $18. The upside is clearly there with $HIMS and all their main regulatory problems were cleared last Friday. It's more of whether or not they can figure out new monetization avenues.
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诺华合作撤诉消除$HIMS法律风险，基本面发生巨大转变。
是的，40%的SI（短期兴趣）此前是合理的。 在$NVO（诺华）达成合作并撤销诉讼之前，我对$HIMS也持看跌态度，这为$HIMS带来了收入流扩张和更明确的监管前景。 该诉讼曾威胁其整个资产负债表+收入增长+全球扩张，因此空头大量做空是合理的。 然而，上周五$HIMS的法律纠纷在一天内全部消失，这是十年来最大的惊喜。 这是一个巨大的基本面转变。
英文原文
Yes the 40% SI made sense earlier. I was bearish on $HIMS too until $NVO partnered up + dropped the lawsuit, giving $HIMS revenue stream expansion and more regulatory clarity. The lawsuit was threatening their entire balance sheet + revenue growth + global expansion, so it made sense why short sellers piled on. However, it was the biggest surprise of the decade last Friday when $HIMS's legal drama all vanished in a day. This is a massive fundamental shift.
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回顾HOOD监管解禁后解锁新收入流，类比HIMS前景。
事后诸葛亮。 当我在 $16 时做多 $HOOD 时，我意识到他们也可以通过加密货币(Crypto)和其他方式扩张。 然而，分析师们给出的 $HOOD 目标价仅为 $8-12，因为他们看不到其他收入流的变现能力。 这与 $HIMS 面临 GLP + $NVO 诉讼的情况类似，Gary Gensler 回归后，SEC 也试图阻止其新的加密货币产品，并最终起诉了 $HOOD。 然而，自从他们解决了这一监管问题后： 他们现在解锁了许多新的收入流，而加密货币是其中最大的一块。 我确实看到了 $NVO 和美国政府现在给 $HIMS 绿灯之间的相似之处。 金融科技/券商认为他们无法“轻松交叉销售”，但 $HOOD 成功打破了这一范式。 我不知道 $HIMS 是否也能做到，但我们会见分晓。
英文原文
Hindsight 20/20. When I was long $HOOD back at $16, I realized they could expand via Crypto and other methods too. However, analysts were all giving Robinhood $8-12 PTs because they didn't see capacity for monetization of other revenue streams. Similar to $HIMS with GLP + $NVO lawsuits, Gary Gensler back + SEC were also tried blocking their new crypto products and ended up suing $HOOD. However, ever since they cleared up that regulatory issue: They've now unlocked many new revenue streams and crypto is one of the biggest ones. I do see parallels with $NVO and US Gov now giving $HIMS the green light. Fintech/Brokerages thought they couldn't "cross-sell easily" but $HOOD managed to break that paradigm. IDK if $HIMS can do it too but we'll find out.
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分析$HIMS全球用户变现潜力，类比$HOOD/$META，建议做多。
感觉大家没有正确阐述 $HIMS 的多头逻辑： 这是我的观点。 $HIMS 的主要护城河是零售受众的网络捕获。 而多头逻辑在于潜在收入的货币化。 $HOOD 在 2025 年的金融科技领域实现了同样的效果。 $META（完全成熟后）在过去十年的社交媒体领域也实现了同样的效果。 $HIMS 现在正处于 2026 年的起点。 但鉴于 Zava + Eucalyptus 带来了全球（欧洲、澳大利亚、日本、加拿大）数百万新用户： $HIMS 现在在医疗领域拥有了独一无二的零售受众捕获能力。 然而，与市值约 700 亿美元的 Robinhood 和 1.6 万亿美元的 $META 巨头不同的是： 它们已经通过利润率优化和新收入流成功货币化了其零售受众。 而且非常激进。$HIMS 尚未做到。 Robinhood 通过推出银行/信用卡/预测市场等新产品做到了这一点。 现在这些新产品各自独立产生超过 1 亿美元的新收入流。 $META 通过收购 WhatsApp/Instagram 后最大化捕获每用户收入做到了这一点。 然而，$HIMS 尚未像在美国那样（例如睾酮疗法）获得同样的机会。部分原因是之前的诉讼。 现在这些障碍已清除，多头逻辑再次显现： 与其建模 Zava/Eucalyptus 传统带来的收入，重要的是关注通过人数实现的零售网络捕获。 因为这是最大的潜在收入来源 + 未被定价的收入预测超预期。 现在，十亿美元的问题是： $HIMS 最终会像 $HOOD 吗？ $HIMS 现在拥有医疗领域最大的零售网络 + 分销渠道之一。 然而，与金融科技或社交媒体渠道相比，医疗领域的交叉销售似乎更难。 它最终是成为 3000 亿美元公司还是 500 亿美元公司，取决于管理层能否解决这一问题。 因此，对于旁观者来说，如果 $HIMS 能够设法从新的全球用户群中实现潜在收入扩张，再次做多可能值得。~40%+ 的做空比例和新的 $NVO 合作也是巨大的加分项。
英文原文
Feels like people aren't articulating the bull case for $HIMS correctly: Here's my view. The main moat of $HIMS is network capture of retail audiences. And the bull case is latent revenue monetization. $HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025. $META (fully grown) achieved that same effect in the social media sector over the past decade. $HIMS is now at the starting point in 2026. But given millions of new users across the globe (Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada) from Zava + Eucalyptus: $HIMS now has that one-of-a-kind retail audience capture in the healthcare sector. However, the difference between ~$70B companies in Robinhood and $1.6T giants in $META is that: They've already successfully monetized their retail audiences both through margin optimization, and new revenue streams. And very aggressively. $HIMS has not yet. Robinhood did so by pushing new products from banking/credit cards/prediction markets/etc. And they are all now independently generating $100m+ each as new revenue streams. $META did so by capturing the maximum amount of revenue per user after acquiring WhatsApp/Instagram. However, $HIMS has not gotten the chance to yet in the same way they did with the US (eg. Testosterone). Especially partially due to former lawsuits. Now that's cleared up, the bull case can be seen again: Instead of modeling what revenue Zava/Eucalyptus traditionally brought, the important thing to look at is retail network capture through # of people. As this is biggest source of latent revenue + revenue projection beats not priced in. Now, the billion dollar question is: Will $HIMS end up like $HOOD? $HIMS now has the one of the largest retail networks + distribution for healthcare. However, cross-selling seems much harder in healthcare vs. fintech or social media channels. The answer whether it ends up a $30B company or a $5B one is up for management to figure out. So for people on the sideline, it might be worth flipping long again in the off-chance $HIMS manages to figure out latent revenue expansion from their new global userbase. The ~40%+ short interest and the new $NVO partnership serves as a huge bonus as well.
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HIMS需散户逼空，最坏情况可低价买入优质公司。
我只是对当前局势补充一些评论。$HIMS 确实需要大量的散户买入压力来迫使空头回补(Short Squeeze)。但我不知道事态会如何发展，最坏的情况是，你能以低于法律纠纷发生前的价格买到一家基本面扎实的公司。最终，人们应该自己做决定！
英文原文
I’m just adding commentary on the current situation. $HIMS does require a lot of retail buying pressure to force cover. But no idea how this unfolds, worse case scenario you get a solid company at prices lower than before the legal drama. People should make their own decision in the end!
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肯定HIMS基本面与分销网络，批评做空机构
@moninvestor 从根本上说，$HIMS 是一家非常稳健的公司，拥有宝贵的分销网络。否则，如果它是一只没有基本面的 meme 股，我也不会提及它。话虽如此，我希望那些对 $HIMS 进行方向性做空的对冲基金得到他们应得的下场。 https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
英文原文
@moninvestor It is, fundamentally $HIMS is a very solid company with a valuable distribution network. Otherwise wouldn’t be mentioning it if it were a meme stock with no fundamentals. That being said, I hope those directional hedge fund shorting HIMS get what they deserve. https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ
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HIMS宣布与NVO合作，高做空率或引发类似GME的空头挤压。
突发消息：$HIMS 首席执行官宣布与 $NVO 建立合作伙伴关系。 这证实了彭博社周五的报道。 鉴于超过40%的流通盘被做空，且与诺和诺德(Novo)的合作关系透明化： 下周该股将成为以下双方的战场： 散户 vs. 做空者。 如果散户获胜且不投降，可能会引发类似游戏驿站(GameStop)从3美元涨至150美元以上的最大规模空头挤压(short squeeze)之一。
英文原文
Just in: CEO of $HIMS announces partnership with $NVO. This is confirmation of the report on Friday from Bloomberg. With 40%+ of the float sold short and transparency around the Novo partnership: This next week will end up as a battleground stock for: Retail vs. Short Seller. And if retail wins and doesn’t capitulate, it could end up triggering one of the largest short squeezes reminiscent of GameStop from $3 to $150+.
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光子学是AI新范式，需忍受波动，切勿使用杠杆。
如果有任何变化，我会发帖说明。包括关于 $AAOI 的情况。 不幸的是，目前市场交易主要受宏观因素和恐惧情绪驱动，除非基本面有像 $HIMS 那样极具颠覆性的变化，否则任何基本面消息都会被避险情绪所覆盖。 光子学(Photonics)是人工智能领域的新一轮范式转移，目前只是在等待度过未来一年的波动期。 不幸的是，许多人正经历着这样的回撤，这就是为什么不要使用杠杆(Margin)如此重要。
英文原文
If anything’s changed I would have posted about it. Including with $AAOI. Unfortunately market trades off macro + fear right now and any fundamentals if it’s not extremely game changing like $HIMS will override risk-off sentiment. Photonics is the new paradigm shift with AI, it’s just waiting out volatility over the next year. Unfortunately a lot of people have draw downs like these, which is why it’s important not to use margin.
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分析指出SK海力士和三星利润未受能源价格实质影响，市场情绪短期主导。
@jayjay12246 是的，我已经完成了分析，发现SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星(Samsung)的营业利润并未受到石油、液化天然气(LNG)和氦气(Helium)的实质性影响。尽管表面看起来很吓人。人们短期内交易的是情绪。如果你的名字不是$HIMS，整体情绪看起来相当糟糕。
英文原文
@jayjay12246 Yeah, I’ve already done the analysis and found SK Hynix/Samsung operating income wasn’t very materially affected by Oil, LNG, and helium. Even though it looks very scary. People trade off sentiment short term. And sentiment looks pretty bad in general if your name is not $HIMS.
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指出HIMS积压订单激增，但对其后续走势持观望态度。
@frsinvesting 是的，我已经看到 $HIMS 积压了数百万美元的订单。不过我不确定这最终会如何演变，只是对当前局势进行评论。 https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf
英文原文
@frsinvesting Yeah I’m already seeing millions in backlogged orders for $HIMS. Idk how it plus out though, just commentating in the situation. https://t.co/oPFAX4mLNf
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为被做空重创的$HIMS投资者加油，并讽刺做空者。
@moninvestor 如果 $HIMS 发生那样的情况会很有趣。 我个人只是在为过去几个月被做空者重创的 $HIMS 投资者加油。 希望他们至少能从试图让美国公司破产的尝试中吸取一些教训。
英文原文
@moninvestor Would be interesting if that happened for $HIMS. I’m personally just cheering on the $HIMS investors that were beat up by short sellers over the past few months. Hopefully they at least learn some lessons trying to bankrupt American companies.
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$HIMS因与$NVO合作及基本面反转，周一或现逼空行情。
$HIMS 隔夜交易即将开始，周五收盘价为 $22。 此前该股交易价为 $70，但鉴于： - $NVO / 美国政府诉讼威胁使公司破产 - $HIMS 来自 GLP-1 的收入减速。 空头做空了该公司 40% 以上的流通盘。 所有这一切在周五盘后发生了逆转，据彭博社报道，$NVO 与 $HIMS 达成合作，这是一个极其令人惊讶的事件。 由于收入重新加速、为全球扩张进行的新收购、资产负债表无破产威胁，以及现在与 $NVO 的合作： 空头现在面临无限亏损，做空了接近一半的流通盘。 目前的格局看起来非常适合发生逼空(short squeeze)。 然而，结果主要取决于散户的反应，或者他们是否会向空头投降。 无论如何，每个人都会关注周一，看看 $HIMS 的仙人掌药丸(cactus pills)是否能作为对抗原油的宏观经济避险资产。
英文原文
$HIMS overnight trading will begin soon after finishing Friday at $22. Previously it traded at $70, but given: - $NVO / US Gov lawsuit threatening to bankrupt the company - $HIMS revenue deceleration from GLP-1. Short sellers shorted 40%+ of the company’s float. All of that flipped Friday after hours once $NVO partnered up with $HIMS per Bloomberg, in an extremely surprising event. Due to revenue reaccelerating, new acquisitions for global expansion, no threats of balance sheet insolvency, and now a partnership with $NVO: Short sellers now face infinite losses, selling close to half of the float short. And the setup looks prime for a short squeeze. However, the outcome primarily depends on how retail reacts or if they capitulate to short sellers. Either way, everyone will be watching Monday to see whether $HIMS cactus pills serves as a macroeconomic flight to safety against crude oil.
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警惕与股票“结婚”，投资逻辑变化时应果断调整持仓。
大多数 X 用户都会犯与股票“结婚”的错误。 如果你的投资逻辑因 $HIMS 或 $IREN 发生实质性变化，你的持仓也应随之调整。 如果去年你对 $IREN 的看多逻辑是通过托管(Colo)业务变现 3GW 产能。 那么如果该公司： -> 在 122 亿市值下不可避免地向你稀释 60 亿美元 -> 在每次反弹中将这些股份抛向公开市场 -> 转向 GPU 业务 你的逻辑已经变了。 这很可能是一个退出以追求更具非对称性机会的时机。 如果你对 $HIMS 的逻辑是它是医疗界的亚马逊。 但如果他们被 $NVO 和美国政府起诉至绝境，退出是合理的。 但如果随着 $NVO 撤诉并达成合作，逻辑重新成立，那么再次做多也没有问题。 每个月都有许多因催化剂或基本面而改变的事情。 如果你仍在为必然发生的、针对你 $IREN 持仓的 60 亿美元新股抛售而欢呼。 而你唯一的理由就像 $AMC 投资者那样“信任管理层”。 也许现在是时候问问自己： 你是否因为与股票“结婚”而忽略了所有危险信号？
英文原文
Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock. If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position. If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo. Then if the company: -> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC -> sells those shares into the open market in every rally -> pivots to GPU offerings Your thesis has changed. And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities. If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare. But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit. But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again. A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals. If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally. And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors. Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this: Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?
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诉讼撤销与营收加速超预期，HIMS 周一走势值得关注。
@himshouse 确实如此，没人预料到诉讼被撤销和营收重新加速会同时发生。这就是为什么 $HIMS 流通盘的 40% 以上被做空。真正的惊喜总是有创造历史的潜力，我们周一见分晓。
英文原文
@himshouse It's true though, don't think anyone expected both the lawsuit to be dropped and revenue to re-accelerate at the same time. Hence why 40%+ of $HIMS float was sold short. Genuine surprises like always have the potential to make history, we'll see what happens on Monday.
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对比ENPH高SI增长与GME历史暴涨，探讨HIMS走势。
@EikonDD 是的，目前看来可能性很大。人们曾讨论过 $ENPH 在 14% 的销售收入(SI) 下翻倍，但现在是 40%+。 记得 $GME 那一年从 $3 涨到 $150 真的令人难忘。不认为我们会再看到那样的重演，但好奇 $HIMS 会走向何方。
英文原文
@EikonDD Yeah seems pretty likely at this point. People were talking about $ENPH doubling off 14% SI but this is 40%+ Was really memorable seeing $GME go from $3->$150 that one year. Don’t think we’ll ever see a repeat of that but curious where $HIMS heads.
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HIMS遭空头猛烈做空，跌幅剧烈但反弹潜力同样巨大。
@yianisz 我最近几个月一直在看空头将 $HIMS 砸得粉碎。惊讶于他们竟能找到足够的股票借入并做空流通盘的 40%。虽然跌幅剧烈，但反之亦然（即空头回补也会引发剧烈反弹）。
英文原文
@yianisz I was just watching short sellers nuke $HIMS into the ground past few months. Was surprised they managed find enough shares to borrow and short 40% of the float. The drop was violent but it works in reverse too.
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IREN稀释源于对冲套利非做空，HIMS方向性做空易引发轧空。
@BlackPantherCap $IREN 的 60 亿美元稀释来自自动取款机(ATM)增发和可转换票据对冲套利，并非真正的做空。$HIMS 主要是方向性做空，而上述情况实际上会引发空头挤压(Short Squeeze)。
英文原文
@BlackPantherCap $IREN is $6B dilution from an ATM and convertible note arbitrage from hedging, not actual shorts. $HIMS was primarily directional shorts, and these scenarios actually lead a short squeeze
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HIMS利空出尽基本面反转，周一或现历史性空头挤压，作者计划买入。
周一可能创造历史。 因为历史上最大规模的空头挤压之一可能正在上演。 > 机构做空了 $HIMS 40% 的流通股（规模极大） > 预期其营收增长为 0 > 押注 FDA 和 $NVO 会让该公司破产 然而，所有转折都在一天内发生： > $HIMS 与 Novo Nordisk 的诉讼被撤销。 > Hims 营收突然再次加速。 > 与此同时，$HIMS 通过 Eucalyptus 扩展至加拿大、澳大利亚和日本。 > $HIMS 通过 Zava 扩展至英国和欧洲。 > 现在突然拥有了合法的全球分销网络、健康的资产负债表、与 $NVO 的合作关系，以及 40% 的流通股被做空。 可能没人预料到这一点。 尤其是那些认为 HIMS 会破产、现在面临数十亿美元无限亏损的空头。 我也曾看空 $HIMS，但这确实是一个巨大的反转故事。 两种可能的场景： 1. 如果所有空头周一同时平仓，可能会发生类似大众汽车式的空头挤压。 很可能一些空头为了风险管理想在其他人之前以 $22 的价格退出，这将引发即时的买盘压力。 2. 另一种场景是随着 $NVO 合作关系的建立，$HIMS 的增长重新点燃，并随着公司基本面改善，出现类似 $TSLA 式的缓慢挤压。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 $70，现在回到 $22，且兼具法律清晰度和营收加速。 我个人会在周一跳上这艘船，添柴加火，看看事态如何发展。 这可能是历史的缔造时刻。
英文原文
Monday could make history. As one of the largest short squeezes in history could unfold. > Institutions shorted 40% of $HIMS (extraordinarily large) > expecting 0 revenue growth > betting the FDA and $NVO would bankrupt the company All in one day: > $HIMS lawsuit with Novo Nordisk dropped. > Hims sudden revenue acceleration begins again. > All while $HIMS expanded to Canada, Australia, and Japan via Eucalyptus in the meantime. > $HIMS expanded to UK and Europe with Zava > Now suddenly a legal global distribution network, healthy balance sheet, $NVO partnership, and 40% of the float shorted. Likely 0 people expected this. Especially short sellers who now face billions in infinite losses, that thought HIMS would be bankrupted. I was bearish on $HIMS too, but this is a massive turnaround story. The two likely scenarios: 1. One scenario is a Volkswagen-type short squeeze on Monday if all the short sellers tries to cover at once Monday It's very likely some short sellers want to exit before others do at $22 for risk-management and this causes immediate buying pressure. 2. The other scenario is growth in $HIMS reignited with the $NVO partnership and a slower $TSLA-style squeeze over time as company fundamentals improve. Given $HIMS was once trading at $70 and now it's back at $22, with both legal clarity + revenue acceleration. I would personally hop on the boat on Monday to add fuel to the fire to see where this heads. Could be history in the making.
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HIMS周一轧空或载入史册，空头措手不及
@tweet_tj 如果所有空头同时平仓，那场面将会相当滑稽。 $HIMS 周一的轧空(short squeeze)事件可能会载入史册，因为我认为所有人都措手不及，且最大流通盘(max float)已被做空。
英文原文
@tweet_tj It’s going to be pretty funny if all the shorts cover at the same time. $HIMS short squeeze Monday could genuinely be one for the history books since I think literally everyone was caught off guard + max float was shorted
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HIMS 股价暴跌后现 22 美元吸引力，或成做多良机。
是的，即使在此之后，$HIMS 仍然下跌了超过 44%。市场此前已计入诉讼和收入损失的影响，但这一消息彻底颠覆了局面。根据新闻后续发展，这可能再次成为一个不错的做多机会。考虑到在风波爆发前股价交易区间为 50-60 美元，22 美元看起来是一个相当有吸引力的入场点。
英文原文
Yeah even after this $HIMS is still down way over 44%+. Markets were pricing in a lawsuit + revenue loss but this news just flipped everything on its head. Might be a good long again depending on how the news unfolds. But $22 looks like a pretty attractive entry point given they were trading in the $50s-$60s before all the drama began
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HIMS与NVO合作消息令市场及空头意外
@pepemoonboy 我相当确定 $HIMS 的消息让所有人都措手不及，尤其是所有的空头。完全没想到 $HIMS 会和 $NVO 达成合作，这真是出乎意料。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Pretty sure the $HIMS news caught everyone off guard, especially all the short sellers. Did not expect a $HIMS partnership with $NVO out of all things.
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HIMS监管风险解除且高做空比例，股价具备反弹潜力。
@demarscrypto 很多人在 $HIMS 50-70 美元时买入，因此即使现在股价为 22 美元，随着监管问题得到解决，看起来又具备了吸引力。此外，目前流通盘中有 40% 被做空，这为股价反弹增添了燃料。
英文原文
@demarscrypto Lot of people bought $HIMS, 50-$70, so even at $22 with the regulatory issues cleared up, looks good again. And now there’s 40% of the float shorted to add fuel to the fire
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$HIMS 与 $NVO 和解合作，盘后大涨 37% 或引发逼空。
恭喜 $HIMS 的持有者，盘后股价回升 37%。 看来 $NVO 撤回了诉讼，并与 $HIMS 合作销售 NOVO 品牌的 GLP-1（胰高血糖素样肽-1）药物。 鉴于 $HIMS 曾交易于 70 美元，且一度成为被做空最多的股票之一。 看到因利好消息引发的逼空行情（Short Squeeze）我并不感到惊讶。
英文原文
Congrats to the $HIMS holders, stock back up 37% after hours. It looks like $NVO dropped the lawsuit and partnered with $HIMS to sell NOVO branded GLP-1s. Given HIMS was once trading at $70 and became one of the most shorted stocks. Would not be surprised to see a short squeeze off the positive news.
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HIMS遭NVO及政府诉讼，减肥药业务受阻，图表分析无效。
$HIMS 遭到 $NVO 和美国政府的疯狂诉讼。减肥化合物药物是其收入增长的主要途径，潜在的诉讼意味着其资产负债表存在危险信号。如果诉讼失败，$HIMS 可能会恢复。该图表本身毫无意义。
英文原文
$HIMS got sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US GOV. Compound weight loss drugs was their primary avenue for revenue growth and potential lawsuit means red flags for their balance sheet. If the lawsuit fell through, $HIMS would likely recover. That chart means nothing by itself
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Robinhood用户Q4亏246亿，警示散户在熊市中难以获利。
这组数据令人震惊……Robinhood 用户在 2025 年第四季度集体亏损： - 246 亿美元。 而 X 上 Robinhood 投资组合主要由以下股票组成： $HIMS、$DUOL 和 $BMNR。 随着这些股票下跌 50-70%+，2026 年第一季度可能会更糟。 每个人都以为自己是沃伦·巴菲特，能在极端牛市中从 Duolingo、$CRWV 和 $ASST 获利。 但当市场转差时： 我们将开始看到真正的交易者和投资者，他们能够在任何市场条件下获利。
英文原文
This data is alarming... Robinhood users lost a collective: - $24.6 Billion USD in Q4 2025. With Robinhood portfolios on X consisting of : $HIMS, $DUOL, and $BMNR. Q1 2026 is likely to be even worse, as these names drop 50-70%+. Everyone thinks they're Warren Buffet, making profit from Duolingo, $CRWV, and $ASST in an extreme bull market. But as markets turn sour: We'll start to see the real traders and investors, who are able to profit in any market condition.
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作者表示对全仓DUOL和HIMS投资者的尊重超过伯瑞。
@soulbiri1 我现在对那位全仓 $DUOL / $HIMS 的哥们儿的尊重程度，甚至超过了对伯瑞(Burry)的尊重。 https://t.co/jjKomoBuAs
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I have more respect for the full port $DUOL / $HIMS guy than Burry now https://t.co/jjKomoBuAs
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Reddit财报亮眼且具网络效应，优于面临逆风的HOOD/HIMS。
持有 $RDDT 第1天：+5.83%。 Reddit 正在快速增长，同比增长50%+（本季度同比增长70%），且净利润是其收入的1/3。 毛利率高达91%，这高得离谱。 令我惊讶的是，更多 $HOOD 或 $HIMS 的持有者在财报后看到收入减速或受到冲击，却没有进行调仓。 其他公司面临的是实际的结构性收入逆风，而 Reddit 只是来自 AI 颠覆的噪音。
英文原文
Day 1 of holding $RDDT: +5.83%. Reddit is growing rapidly 50%+ Y/Y (grew 70% Y/Y this quarter) and net income is 1/3rd their revenue. Gross margins are 91%, which is absurdly high. Surprised more $HOOD or $HIMS holders after earnings are not pivoting after seeing revenue deceleration or disruption. You have actual structural headwinds for revenue for other companies while Reddit is just noise from AI disruption.
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作者澄清持仓结构相似但权重不同，并对比自身交易风格与长期持有者。
如果你读了那篇帖子，我提到我的个人投资组合看起来不同且权重不同。但从结构上看，它与上述内容相似。 另外，我是一名日内/波段交易者，我的持仓变动很大。如果你想要稳定性，还有其他人全仓持有 $DUOL、$HIMS 和 $AMD 且从不调整。
英文原文
If you read the post, I mentioned my personal portfolio looks different and has different weightings. But looks structurally it’s similar to above. Also I’m a day/swing trader, my positions change a lot. If you want consistency there’s others that are all in $DUOL, $HIMS, $AMD and never change.
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讽刺监管时机，认为HIMS案实为保护大药企股东。
两年前，Solana 和加密资产被定性为“非法”，许多创始人因涉及“证券”交易而面临执法威胁甚至入狱风险。 在 $NVO 股价下跌 8% 之后，这一时机的出现真是令人啼笑皆非。 $HIMS 的案例看起来更像是以“安全”为由，保护大型制药公司的股东利益。
英文原文
Solana and crypto assets were “illegal” 2 years ago and many founders were threatened with enforcement + jail for dealing with “securities”. The timing of this after $NVO’s share price went down 8% is hilarious to watch. The $HIMS case looks more like protecting big pharma shareholders over “safety” reasons.
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类比监管打压，批评药企与银行游说扼杀创新。
这看起来为何与2022年Gary Gensler试图将$HOOD和Coinbase创始人送进监狱的情景如此相似？ $HIMS在4年后正在做创新的事情，而大型制药公司（Big Pharma）正在游说禁止它。 稳定币（Stablecoins）和银行目前的情况也是如此，在“清晰法案（Clarity Act）”下，以保护消费者免受稳定币收益风险为幌子。 到了这一步，当$NVO和摩根大通（JP Morgan）可以以“安全原因”游说这些政客时，美国的创新也就到此为止了。
英文原文
Why does this looks eerily similar to Gary Gensler trying to jail $HOOD and Coinbase founders back in 2022? $HIMS is doing something innovative now 4 years later and big pharma is lobbying to ban it. Same with Stablecoins and Banks right now with the “Clarity Act” under the guise of protecting consumers from the safety with stablecoin yields. At this point, so much for innovation in America when $NVO and JP Morgan can lobby these politicians for “safety reasons”.
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暴跌重创高贝塔散户持仓，半导体材料股表现稳健
@LivingITMoney 是的，今天的暴跌让许多重仓 $HOOD、$SOFI、$HIMS 或 $PLTR 等股票的散户投资组合遭受重创。通常高贝塔值(高波动性)的个股会率先被拖累下跌。当然，持有 $FORM、$LITE、$AXTI 或 $SNDK 的投资者则稳如泰山 https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
英文原文
@LivingITMoney Yeah, today’s crash wiped out a lot of retail portfolios that have high concentration in stocks like $HOOD, $SOFI, $HIMS, or $PLTR. Lot of high beta names are typically the ones that get dragged down first. Of course others that are in $FORM, $LITE, $AXTI, or $SNDK are chilling https://t.co/5rpa9RHZ9t
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多数板块大跌，仅AI板块支撑市场。
@moninvestor 是的，$BMNR 表现确实惨烈。从软件到加密货币，市场绝大多数板块都大幅下跌。 像 $HIMS 或 $HOOD 这样的金融科技(FinX)概念股也在暴跌。 目前全靠人工智能(AI)板块在支撑市场。
英文原文
@moninvestor Yeah $BMNR is rough. The vast majority of the market from software to crypto are down heavily. Lot of FinX names like $HIMS or $HOOD are cratering too. It’s just AI carrying the market right now
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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对比负责任与发布虚假内幕信息的网红博主
谢谢，我对那位因基于公开信息构建其万亿美元级语言AI鸟类（$DUOL）投资逻辑并在股价下跌时承担责任、导致组合亏损60%的$DUOL/$HIMS/$PLTR网红博主没有意见。相比之下，还有其他人发布关于“内幕消息”显示需求过大的实质性虚假/不可验证声明，然后在股价崩盘后删除帖子。
英文原文
Thanks I have no issue with that $DUOL / $HIMS / $PLTR influencer who lost 60% of his portfolio because at least he’s basing his $1T+ language AI bird thesis off pubic information and taking accountability when the stock dropped. Then there’s others who just post materially false / unverifiable statements about too much demand from “insider info” then deletes their posts after the stock crashes
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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分析NVDA、SMCI等超跌股数据，认为其均值回归潜力大。
我也可以为 $NVDA 提出看空论点，即超大规模云服务商正在自研 ASIC。但在这种情况下，你要看数据而非叙事，比如英伟达的积压订单(backlog)，简直惊人。 $SMCI 远不及此，这也是它三个月下跌 40% 的原因，但它营收同比(Y/Y)仍增长 50%+，甚至将全年指引从 330 亿美元上调至 360 亿美元。 至于 $SNAP，如果你是价值投资者，它被严重低估。Perplexity 交易增加 4 亿美元价值，加上内存变现的净自由现金流(FCF)为 +6.3 亿美元。然而它年初至今仍下跌 25%。 $HIMS 完成了 Zava 收购并拓展欧洲。亚马逊等虽已推出竞品，但我认为 Hims 明年营收同比(Y/Y)仍将增长 20%+，且有回购。它们显然不像 SK 海力士、台积电、Lite-On 等神级股票那样以疯狂速度增长，但超跌+均值回归速度更快，上行空间可能更大。
英文原文
So I can argue the bear case for $NVDA too, that hyperscalers are building their own ASICs. But in cases like these, you look at numbers rather than narrative like, the backlog for Nvidia, it's wild. $SMCI is nowhere close, which is why it's down 40% in 3 months but it's still growing revenue 50%+ Y/Y and even raised FY guidance from $33B to FY $36B. As for $SNAP, it's materially undervalued if you're value investing. Perplexity deal adding $400m in value, then net FCF from memory monetization is +$630M. Yet it's trading 25% down from the start of the year. $HIMS has Zava acqusition and is expanding to Europe. Amazon and others already launched competitors but Hims I think is still growing 20%+ Y/Y into next year and has buybacks. They're obviously not god-tier stocks like Sk Hynix, TSM, Lite, and others just growing at insane rates but this is the point of being over-sold + revert to mean a lot faster. And upside could be higher.
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利用年末税务收割导致的超跌，寻找基本面完好标的博取一月效应反弹。
新年快乐！ 最奇怪的“季节性异常”是均值回归反弹的“一月效应”。 寻找那些被严重抛售的股票，例如在3个月图表上跌幅分别为-53.9%的 $MSTR、-41.9%的 $HIMS 或 -38.63%的 $SMCI，或者像年初至今(YTD)下跌-25%的 $SNAP 和下跌-23%的 $MRVL 这样的公司。 主要候选标的拥有强劲的未来盈利预期，但股价却大幅下跌，例如Snapchat（涉及Perplexity、记忆变现等概念）、SMCI（未来同比增长50%以上，但因Q1至Q2积压订单延迟而下跌），或Marvell（未来Maia系列将带来三位数的收入增长）。 年末税务收割(Tax Harvesting)正在市场全面生效，这造成了人为的下行压力。 因此，当你在寻找新年折扣时，务必检查基本面是否真的没有大问题。（例如，MSTR因面临MSCI除名风险而风险更高） 但历史上，如果这些股票因年末税务亏损而加速抛售，它们往往会在年初第一个月率先上涨。这一趋势为交易者提供了最具回报的机会之一。
英文原文
Happy New Year! The strangest “seasonal anomaly" is the January Effect for mean reversion rallies. Look for beaten down names like $MSTR -53.9%, $HIMS -41.9%, or $SMCI -38.63% on 3M charts or companies like $SNAP -25% YTD, $MRVL -23% YTD The primary candidates have strong forward earnings, but are down like Snapchat (perplexity, memory monetization), SMCI (50%+ forward y/y growth but dropped on q1->q2 backlog delay), or Marvell with triple digit revenue growth from Maia down the road. The EoY tax harvesting is in full effect for the markets and this causes artificial downward pressure. So, while you’re shopping for new year discounts, make sure to check there isn’t something fundamentally too broken. (Eg. MSTR is more risky because of MSCI delisting) But, historically, these tend to rise first month of the year if they had accelerated sell offs due to end of year tax losses. This trend presents one of the most rewarding opportunities for traders.
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博主披露核心及轮动持仓，并解释转向方向性评论的原因。
核心持仓是高确信度的多头：$BTC、$RKLB、$HOOD、$NBIS、$ALAB、$TSM。可能将 $LITE 和 $CRCL 移入上述核心多头组合，但它们是我正在建仓的新头寸。然后是短期至中期混合持仓，如 $SNAP、$CIFR、$RDDT、$SMCI、$HIMS、$TE、$LTC、$KRUS、AMKR、$LITE、$FLY、$WLAC、$META、$AMZN、$TTD 以及现在的 $AAOI 等。我在短期至中期持仓之间进行大量轮动。我以前发布更多关于日内交易的内容，但最终在这里获得了太多粉丝，所以想转向方向性评论。发布头寸更新很难，因为我喜欢解释我这样做的原因！我记得在 $IREN 约 50-60 美元时卖出，结果在接下来的三周里收到了一堆恶评 lol
英文原文
Core portfolio is high conviction longs: $BTC, $RKLB, $HOOD, $NBIS, $ALAB, $TSM Probably moving $LITE and $CRCL to the core long port above, but they’re newer positions that I’m building up. Then short-mid term mix like $SNAP, $CIFR, $RDDT, $SMCI, $HIMS, $TE, $LTC, $KRUS, AMKR, $LITE, $FLY, $WLAC, $META, $AMZN, $TTD, and now $AAOI etc. I rotate between short-medium term holds A LOT. I used to post more day trading stuff but I ended up getting too many followers here, so wanted to switch to directional commentary. It’s hard to post position updates because I like to explain why I do things! I remember selling $IREN around $50-$60 or something and just got a bunch of hate comments for the next three weeks lol
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美联储降息后发布12月11日个股评级，重点推荐AI基建、稳定币及超跌成长股。
美联储降息25个基点后。 12月11日评级： 强烈买入： $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI SK海力士 $SNAP 三星电子 $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR 买入： $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR 回避 $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO 解释： 今天美联储如期降息25个基点。这通常会引导流动性进入成长股，并利好那些债务使用最多（以更低利率再融资）的中小盘股，例如像$NBIS和$CIFR这样的新云(Neoclouds)。 然而，这也恰逢日本加息，可能导致去年重新加载的套息交易(Carry Trade)平仓；但这是短期的，基本面>短期波动。 强烈买入评级： Circle - 大幅下跌主要由于IPO后的股份解禁。然而，降息损害了其商业模式~利息收入减少20%。 话虽如此，我们看到稳定币市场大幅增长，我个人看到大量早期风险投资（a16z, Sequoia等）涌入与稳定币相关的公司，如新银行(Neobanks)。我们应该看到所有这些都流入更多的USDC铸造，铸造量将抵消降息的影响。 Coinbase - 与Circle相同，他们在USDC方面有50%的收入分成。然而，他们还有自己的交易所，而且降息通常有助于风险资产如加密货币（尤其是比特币跌破9万美元后）。 Amkor - 受益于半导体/晶圆厂向美国制造的转移。 Credo - 过去5天下跌-16%，今天下跌8%。很好的恢复性买入，不认为数据中心建设的数据连接需求会下降。 ALAB - 与CRDO相同的论点 IBIT (比特币) - 始终是长线好标的，尤其是在$93K时 Microstrategy (MSTR) - 受益于比特币复苏，并分析了他们是否会爆仓。TLDR：不会，在需要支付利息之前（约2029年），我们还有另一次比特币减半事件。 Amazon - 今年一动不动。基本面改善，年底有助于电商部门。定制芯片、星座、Robotaxi，他们基本上什么都做，而市场尚未真正奖励他们的努力。只是感觉我们可能会在接下来的2个月看到它跑赢大盘。 SMCI - 之前发过关于这个的论点帖，惊人的恢复性买入。它因将收入积压转移到下一季度而在财报后下跌，但市场没有定价他们未来收入同比增长60%但交易在~11倍远期市盈率的事实。 TSM - 整个AI/半导体建设的骨干。我们看到关于TPU与GPU的争论，但TSM不在乎。 TSSI - 与SMCI相同的论点，依附于Dell，作为一个代理，我们看到来自IREN等供应商和其他在2026年建设数据中心的新云的巨大积压，我们应该看到这在明年实现。 SK海力士 - 显然有关于在美国市场上市升级的传闻，这应该提振流动性。此外，内存市场因AI建设而需求极高。 Snapchat - 只是被低估。$13B市值，~1B+季度收入。NA DAU较上季度下降3%，但不要为了成为下一个FB而买入。他们只需要削减GCP成本并货币化记忆功能（他们已经做了），我们应该看到明年重新评级100%+，特别是随着Perplixty交易带来的$400m+额外收入/股权。 三星电子 - 人们认为这也是内存，因为它构成了他们利润的很大一部分，但我将其视为潜在的下一个现金牛晶圆厂玩法，如TSM，作为第二大玩家吸收任何最大产能溢出。 META - 一次性税收抛售，超卖。现在我们终于看到他们创建前沿模型（Avacado，如果我记得没错的话）。所以他们可以货币化他们一直在花钱的llama开源llm努力。他们还削减了元宇宙努力，这应该是对盈利能力的巨大推动。 Nebius - 由于2500万股稀释导致短期拖累。ATM可能正在提供。话虽如此，一旦完成，由于来自其DC业务（7-9B ARR）及其4家市场未定价的子公司（同比增长100%+）的远期收入/增长，极度低估。 CIFR - 由于比特币价格（资产负债表上持有大量）导致短期下跌，但由于他们做托管(Colo)模式，不受GPU贬值争论的太大影响。此外由Google背书，并与Amazon有合同，因此从根本上降低了风险，是新云领域的顶级买入之一。 买入评级： 文字空间不够，所以给出更短的TLDR Kura Sushi - 波段交易，拉出5年图表，你会明白我的意思，每次它触底（大约现在）。这从未失败过！ Broadcom - 超大规模建设，与联发科一起对TPU至关重要 Netflix - 16%的下跌对于收购来说感觉有点不必要 KRKNF - 基本面增长良好，作为Andruil供应商的市场具有防御性。 HIMS - 股票回购计划，通常低于$40是很好的买入/波段交易。Zava收购未被定价，且仍在增长。 FLY - SpaceX $1.5T估值应该提振整个太空板块。这是2026年中型发射的玩法。 OSS - 之前对此进行过DD，潜在的Andruil供应商。否则，在这个市值下无论如何都有些低估。 TE - 少数Murican能源基础设施之一，太阳能。它可能比核能更商业化。 FLNC - 与AI建设+能源相同的论点 LITE - 现在相当过度延伸，不会追高。但长期受益于处于tpu ironwood + blackwell建设的中间。 COHR - 与Lite相同，但似乎是次要玩家。 RKLB - 可能是我最喜欢的长线。现在相当高估，但由于SpaceX的FOMO无法避免。 TTD - 之前的论点帖，仅基于远期收入数字，似乎是一个很好的恢复性玩法。 NVDA - TPU恐惧有点夸大，看看积压订单。 CLS - TPU v7生态系统买入 GOOGL - 他们像NVDA一样销售TPU，像Waymo一样增长Robotaxi市场，Gemini成功。全方位开火。 Reddit - 就像早期的Robinhood一样，只是一台印钞机。对RDDT通过FCF增长收购做了一些论点评论。否则，他们将留下来并受益于所有世代使用它（不像Snap那样早期） WULF - 类似于CIFR。重新评级可能会发生，取决于更多关于Anthropic建设的信息。 CRWV - 糟糕，糟糕的长线。良好的短期恢复性买入。 IREN - 如果他们继续购买GPU来做AI云，我不会把钱投进去，只是因为稀释。但他们可能会做托管，并且拥有大量的GW容量，所以仍然很有希望。 GLXY - 数据中心建设的受益者。 WLAC - 可能他们本月进行SPAC IPO。他们说Q4。 MPWR - TPU v7生态系统买入 回避 RGTI - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 PLTR - 449.01B市值lol WMT - 他们每年增长4%的收入，但交易在40倍市盈率，这很疯狂。 ETH - 以太坊伟大的网络。然而，没有代币销毁，也没有收入流向代币持有者。糟糕的投资，伟大的开发者工具/生态系统。 BMNR - 以太坊代理。 TSLA - 有点脱离基本面。但这是对elon musk、大规模Robotaxi、机器人的赌注。我个人只是认为这过度承诺，但我们会看到。 IONQ - 量子，没有基本面/收入支持 ORCL - 大部分远期积压依赖于openai，如果openai在市场份额上输给claude/gemini，这使得事情极其不确定/有风险。话虽如此，现在是一个很好的恢复性买入，但长期来看有风险。 SLNH - 如果你想被他们的2.8gw管道稀释到虚无，这是要持有的股票。 OKLO - 没有像量子那样的基本面来支持目前的市值，这可能需要多年才能实现。
英文原文
Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut. December 11th ratings: Strong Buy: $CRCL $COIN $AMKR $CRDO $IBIT $MSTR $AMZN $SMCI $TSM $TSSI Sk Hynix $SNAP Samsung Electronics $ALAB $META $NBIS $CIFR Buy: $KRUS $AVGO $NFLX $KRKNF $HIMS $FLY $OSS $TE $FLNC $LITE $COHR $RKLB $TTD $NVDA $CLS $GOOGL $RDDT $WULF $CRWV $IREN $GLXY $WLAC $MPWR Avoid $RGTI $PLTR $WMT $ETH $BMNR $TSLA $IONQ $ORCL $SLNH $OKLO Explanations: Today fed cut interest rates 25BPS as expected. This usually funnel liquidity into growth stocks and benefits small-medium caps that use debt the most (refinance with lower interest rates), such as Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR. However, this coincides with Japan hiking, which might lead to carry trade unwind from last year's reload; but this is short term, fundamentals > volatility short term. Strong Buy Ratings: Circle - Massive drop mainly due to share unlock post IPO. However, rate cuts hurt their business model ~20% revenue cut from interest. That being said, we're seeing a massive growth in the stablecoin market, and I'm personally seeing huge early venture capital funding (a16z, sequioa, etc). being poured into stablecoin related companies such as Neobanks. We should see all of this funnel into more USDC printing, and the printer outweigh rate cuts. Coinbase - Same as Circle, they have 50% revenue sharing in terms of USDC. However, they also have their exchange on top, and rate cuts generally help riskier assets such as crypto (especially post drop Bitcoin sub 90k) Amkor - Benefits from Made in America shift to semis/fab. Credo - Dropped -16% last 5 days, and 8% today. Great recovery buy, don't see connectivity demand dropping from DC buildout. ALAB - Same thesis as CRDO IBIT (Bitcoin) - Always a great long, especially so at $93K Microstrategy (MSTR) - Benefits from Bitcoin recovery and did an analysis whether they would get liquidated or not. TLDR: no, we have another bitcoin halving event before they need to pay off interest, which was around 2029. Amazon - Hasn't moved an inch all year. Fundamentals improving, EOY helps E-commerce division. Custom chips, constellations, robotaxis, they're basically doing everything and market hasn't really rewarded their effort yet. Just a feeling we might see this outperform next 2 months. SMCI - Did a thesis post on this earlier, amazing recovery buy. It dropped on earnings due to shifting revenue backlog to next quarter, but markets aren't pricing in the fact they're growing 60% Y/Y forward revenue but trading at ~11 forward p/e or so. TSM - Backbone of the whole AI/semi buildout. We're seeing arguments about TPU vs. GPU, but TSM doesn't care. TSSI - Same thesis with SMCI, piggybacks off of Dell, just as a proxy we're seeing massive backlog from vendors such as IREN, and other neoclouds building out DCs 2026, and we should see this come into fruition next year. Sk Hynix - Apparently there's been rumors about uplisting to US markets, which should be a boost to liquidity. Also memory markets is just incredibly high demand from AI buildout. Snapchat - Just undervalued. $13B marketcap, ~1B+ quarterly revenue. NA DAU dropped 3% from last quarter but don't buy this for being the next FB. All they need to do is cut GCP costs and monetize memories (which they did) and we should see this re-rate 100%+ next year, especially with $400m+ in added revenue/equity from the Perplixty deal Samsung Electronics - People think of this as memory as well because it makes up a large part of their profit, but i see this as a potential next cash cow foundry play like TSM, as the 2nd largest player to soak up any max capacity overflow. META - One time tax selloff, was oversold. Now we finally see them create a frontier model (Avacado) if i remember correctly. So they can monetize the llama open source llm efforts they've been just blowing money on. They also cut their metaverse efforts, which should be a huge boost in proftiability. Nebius - Short term drag due to 25m share dilution. ATM is likely being offered. That being said once this finishes, insanely undervalued due to forward revenue/growth from both its DC business (7-9B ARR), and its 4 subsidaries that the markets dont price in (growing 100%+ Y/Y) CIFR - Short term drop due to Bitcoin prices (holding a lot on balance sheet), but not really affected by GPU depreciation arguments since they do colo models. Also backstopped by google, and they have contracts with Amazon, so fundamentally disrisked and one of the top buys in neocloud secotr. Buy Ratings: Running out of text space so will give a shorter TLDR Kura Sushi - Swing trade zoom out 5 year chart and you'll see what I mean every time it bottoms (around now). This never fails! Broadcom - Hyperscaler buildout, critical to TPU alongside Mediatek Netflix - 16% drop feels a bit unwarranted for the acquisition KRKNF - Great growing fundamentals and defensible market as an andruil supplier. HIMS - Share buyback program, usually sub $40 great buy/swing trade. Zava acqusition not being priced in and it's still growing. FLY - SpaceX $1.5T valuation should boost up the whole space sector. This was a 2026 play for medium lift. OSS - DD on this earlier potential andruil supplier. Otherwise, kind of undervalued at this MC anyway. TE - One of the few Murican energy infra, Solar. It's likely more commercial than Nuclear. FLNC - Same thesis with AI buildout + energy LITE - Pretty overextended right now, wouldn't chase. But long term benefits from being in the middle of both tpu ironwood + blackwell buildout COHR - Same with Lite, but seems like a secondary player. RKLB - Probably my favorite long. Pretty overvalued right now but can't help it due to SpaceX fomo. TTD - Thesis post earlier, just based on forward revenue numbers, it seems like a great recovery play. NVDA - TPU fears are a bit overblown, just look at backlog. CLS - TPU v7 ecosystem buy GOOGL - They sell TPUs like NVDA, growing robotoaxis market like waymo, gemini succesful. Just firing on all fronts. Reddit - Just a money printer like early day Robinhood. Made some thesis comments about RDDT growing in terms of acquisitions from FCF. Otherwise, they're here to stay and benefits from all gens using it (unlike snap which is earlier) WULF - Similar to CIFR. Rerating might happen depending on more info about the Anthropic buildout. CRWV - Terrible, terrible long. Good short term recovery buy. IREN - I would not put money into this if they kept buying GPUs to do AI cloud just due to dilution. but they might do colo and they have an immense amount of GW capacity so it's still promising. GLXY - Beneficary of DC Buildout. WLAC - Possible that they're SPAC ipoing this month. They did say Q4. MPWR - TPU v7 ecosystem buy Avoid RGTI - Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up PLTR - 449.01B market cap lol WMT - They're growing like 4% revenue a year, but trading at 40 p/e which is insane. ETH - Ethereum great network. However, there's no token burn and none of the revenue goes to token holders. Terrible investment, great developer tooling/ecosystem. BMNR - Ethereum proxy. TSLA - Kind of detached from fundamentals. But it's a bet on elon musk, robotaxis at scale, robotics. I personally just see this as overpromising, but we'll see. IONQ -Quantum, no fundamentals/revenue to back it up ORCL - Most of forward backlog is dependent on openai, which makes things incredibly uncertain/risky if openai falls to claude/gemini in market share. That being said, it's a good recovery buy right now, but long term it's risky. SLNH - This is the stock to be in if you want diluted to oblivion on their 2.8gw pipeline. OKLO - no fundamentals like quantum to back up mc at this moment, this likely years out to come into fruition.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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作者称市场大跌为“大重置”，多只AI概念股股价回落至重大利好前水平。
我将这次市场下跌称为“大重置(The great reset)”。 许多股票的价格已重置至其基本面发生变化之前的水平。 $HIMS 回到 Zava 事件前的 $36。 $NBIS 回到微软(MSFT)交易前的 $94。 $CIFR 和 $WULF 回到 AWS/谷歌交易前的价格。 $SNAP 回到与 Perplexity 交易前的价格。 股市的“黑色星期五”提前到来了。
英文原文
The great reset is how I termed the market drop. Lot of names were reset to prices before their fundamentals changes $HIMS back to pre-Zava prices at $36. $NBIS back to pre-MSFT deal prices at $94. $CIFR $WULF back to pre-aws/googl deals $SNAP pre-perplexity deal. Early Black Friday for stocks
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成长股因宏观恐慌错杀，机构逢低吸纳，是最佳买入窗口。
目前市场正目睹大多数成长股下跌。 过去5天： · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) 已失去近期涨幅。为何？ 目前我们看到机械性对冲下行，混合着类似加密市场的实时级联保证金清算。 这还混合了基于宏观的投降式抛售，包括对12月降息概率的半合理担忧、政府停摆导致的数据缺失，以及多家对冲基金发布的AI看空报告。 最重要的一点是：尽管许多个股基本面正在改善。 我们看到像： $NBIS 将ARR指引从分析师预期的$4B上调至$7-9B，本周却跌去26.85%。 我们也看到 $SNAP 在发布$4B惊喜的Perplexity交易后，吹爆营收指引，却失去了财报后的所有涨幅。 此时，我们正接近12月“圣诞老人行情”前的底部，机构正在暗池/大宗交易中买入杠杆交易者的比特币清算资金，转向$NBIS等优质股票。 如果未来增长和基本面放缓，此次下跌后的持续抛售是合理的。 然而，如果许多成长股的基本面完好，这次市场重置是自4月关税抛售以来，从$KRKNF到$ALAB的成长股最佳买入机会。 正如Robinhood [ $HOOD ]数据显示，散户在$IREN等热门股上，在$45-$50底部大量卖出，但在$MSFT交易后$80顶部买入。 散户往往在顶部追高，但在下跌后底部投降。 这是伟大的重置，而非导致熊市的持续崩盘。保证金清算后及弱势筹码向长期投资者转移，将带来新高。 话说回来：你认为目前被抛售最严重的高Beta股票是哪只？
英文原文
Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now. In the past 5 days: · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) have lost their recent gains. Why? Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets. This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds. The most important thing to note is that: This is despite improving fundamentals in many individual stocks. We've seen companies like: $NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week. and we've seen $SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal. At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades. If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted. However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off. As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80. Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop. This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs. That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?
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高贝塔资产遭抛售属市场重置，基本面改善应耐心持有。
从 $RKLB、$HOOD、$BTC（现89k）、$HIMS 等所有高贝塔/“风险”/成长型资产都在被无情抛售。尽管基本面全面改善，但这源于连环保证金清算和投降式抛售（基于部分合理的担忧）后的良好重置。以 $IREN 为例，散户仅因 Robinhood 数据就在股价创新低时抛售。但散户通常是在 $MSFT 交易后 $80 高点买入，而在崩盘后 $45 低位最后卖出。此时只需关注新周期、降息、期权到期，并耐心等待，因为基本面正在全面改善。如果盈利和远期收入放缓，我会大幅减仓（但事实并非如此，我们看到的是创纪录的增长）。
英文原文
Every high beta/“risk”/growth asset from $RKLB, $HOOD, $BTC (89k now), $HIMS is being obliterated. It’s a great reset from cascading margin liquidations and capitulation (based on semi-valid concerns) despite seeing improving fundamentals across the board. $IREN retail is selling off for example just based on Robinhood data even while stock is at new lows. But retail is typically the one to buy at the highest point $80 post $MSFT deal and and last to sell eg. $45 post crash. At this point it’s just new cycles, rate cut, option expirations, and waiting since fundamentals are improving across the board. If earnings were slowing and forward revenue was slowing, I would be selling well (but it’s not, we’re seeing record growth)
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认为$HIMS被低估，看好Zava收购及回购计划，但更倾向资金用于增长。
@himshouse $HIMS 目前似乎被低估，尤其是随着 Zava 收购案的完成，将很快助力营收增长。拥有 2.5 亿美元的回购计划对此叙事有所帮助。不过，我仍然更希望这笔资金用于收购和增长。
英文原文
@himshouse $HIMS is seems undervalued at this point, especially with the Zava acquisition coming into help revenue growth soon. Having a $250M repurchase program helps a bit with that narrative. Still would prefer that going toward acquisitions and growth though.
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成长股因宏观利空广泛抛售，$PYPL 作为价值股相对独立。
这是成长型/高贝塔股的广泛抛售。$PYPL 是一只价值投资类型的股票。例如： 1个月： $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ 新云/矿企 1周： $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% 这不仅仅是单只股票的问题。这是在鲍威尔关于12月降息+政府长期停摆的言论之后发生的。
英文原文
It's a broader sell-off on growth/higher beta. $PYPL is a value investing type stock. eg: 1 Month: $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ Neoclouds/Miners 1 Week: $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% It's not just a single stock. This was after Powell's comments about Dec rate cut + extended gov shutdown.
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博主展示其DUOL、PLTR、HIMS持仓，戏称其市值将达万亿并询问是否卖课。
@RJCcapital 你怎么看我的投资组合 @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital 它们都将成为10万亿美元市值的公司。 1. $DUOL - 50万亿美元的语言AI基础设施。 2. $PLTR - 从这里起涨100倍 - 50万亿美元的利息利润。 3. $HIMS - 500万亿美元的伟哥（🐔 pills）。世界需要它。 值得卖课吗？
英文原文
@RJCcapital What do you think of my port @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital they all will be 10T companies 1. $DUOL - 50T AI infrastructure for language 2. $PLTR - 100x from here - 50T off interest profit. 3. $HIMS- 500T off 🐔 pills. The world needs it. Is it worth selling a course too?
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博主计划在当前价位重新买入$HIMS，并看好周一的连续竞价拍卖。
@jliljliljlil @DeepValueBagger 我目前没有任何 $HIMS 的头寸，我可能会在这个价位再次买入。 我在16%的跌幅时买入，在反弹4-5%时卖出，此后一直空仓。 但周一的连续竞价拍卖(CSP)听起来很有希望。
英文原文
@jliljliljlil @DeepValueBagger I dont have any $HIMS position right now, I'll probably buy in again at this level. I bought at that 16% drop, sold on a 4-5% recovery, and haven't had any positions since. But CSP for Monday sounds promising.
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建议趁市值停滞、基本面改善时重新买入$HIMS。
@DeepValueBagger 过去几个季度，$HIMS 的市值基本没有波动，而基本面却在改善。因此我会利用这个时机重新买入。它从 40 多美元涨到 63 美元的次数我已经数不清了。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger It's been a few quarters where $HIMS market cap hasn't really moved while fundamentals improved. So I'd use this as a buying time to get back in. The amount of times it swung from $40s -> $63 I lost count.
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博主发布降息周交易清单，强烈看好TSM及Neocloud板块，建议做多。
10月20日，重要的降息交易周。 个人想法和解释： 🛝 = 波段交易(Swing Trade) 🐈 = 催化剂交易(Catalyst Trade) 🎇 = 2026年交易，已进行税务收割(Tax Harvested) 清仓卖出(Fire Sale) 🔥 $NBIS 强烈买入(Strong Buy) $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 买入(Buy) $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU （跳过“持有”，因为我过去提到的其他股票，既然没有变化，大概就继续持有）。 卖出(Sell) $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ 宏观方面，距离降息（约97%概率）还有9天。市场处于恐惧模式。这是建立多头头寸且不减仓的理想时机。 清仓卖出 _ $NBIS - 无需多言，我仍维持2026年牛市情景下$400的目标价，基于40-60亿美元+的前瞻性收入及约60-75%的毛利率，以及另一份可能的超大规模云厂商合同（如 $META）。 周五下跌10%+是机械式对冲和做市商(MM)钉住价格所致。尽管波动剧烈，价格仍卡在$113.5。预计周一空头对冲将平仓（鉴于做市商买入看跌期权并做空看涨期权 -> 临近到期时大量做空），价格将回升。我在下跌时买入六位数的看涨期权，因为基本面没有实质性变化。 强烈买入 TSM - 天哪，请务必将其纳入投资组合。这是一台印钞机，每年营收增长38-40%的同时毛利率还在提升，简直不可思议。财报大超预期后股价回调，这是我生命中最容易的多头机会之一。 AMKR - 我尚未持有，但计划因TSM在亚利桑那州的参与以及其作为美国供应链大伙伴的潜力而加仓（随着美国推动TSM向美国晶圆厂+制造转移）。 WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO，上行空间巨大。我最近常提到这个，它可能是估值最好的Neocloud之一，且已有不错的利润率（并非来自矿工转型，后者不确定性稍大）。他们与Fluidstack合作，我预计若获得Mag7合同，估值将重估500%+。 AMZN - $213太离谱了哈哈。我不明白在牛市中它为何年初至今下跌-3%。 LTC - 受加密货币清算和政府停摆延迟ETF影响。现在是买入并等待ETF获批的好时机。 RDDT - 跌至$190是很好的回调。我以为$200是底部，结果跌得更低。关于ChatGPT较少引用它的新闻引发了大幅抛售，我认为这影响甚微。 HIMS - CEO减持导致下跌14%+。所有者经常卖股，对公司基本面影响不大，仅影响短期情绪。预计会反弹。 IBIT - 比特币$108k是很好的入场点，它已在$110k-$120k之间震荡一段时间，低于此价位通常很好。 ALAB - 上次我说过，因新竞争对手新闻而抛售过度。它已在市场上与AVGO竞争哈哈，拥有类似NVDA的利润率，同比增长数百%，Mag7在数据中心建设中正在使用它。 CRDO - 逻辑与ALAB类似，随Astera抛售但幅度稍小。 SMCI - 应因明年55%+的营收增长而重估。我早先怀疑这些预测，但随着数据中心增长，看起来变得现实了。 FLY - 这是中程有效载荷的博弈。人们怀疑Fly的执行能力，但NOC联合开发中程载荷消除了很多风险（并在与Falcon9竞争时可能重估500%+）。 SNAP - 我在早期的深度研究(DD)帖子中计算过Snap记忆功能的变现能力，目前完全未定价。它季度营收$13亿+，市值仅$130亿哈哈，通过增加营收+降低Google OPEX成本获得的自由现金流(FCF)非常惊人。 ETOR - 大部分为现金，以IBKR的速度增长，受税务收割影响。 LULU - 受税务收割+Alo、Vuori等竞争影响。但季节性应该不错，且现在市盈率极低。 买入 AMD - ChatGPT下AMD订单，ORCL建设AMD数据中心。随着成为$NVDA潜在竞争对手，预计明年将重估。仍认为Nvidia将主导，但鉴于其4.5T市值，即使AMD只占一小部分份额，也有很大追赶空间。 HOOD - 10%+回调后看起来好多了。可能复刻PLTR的走势。 RBRK - 之前做过深度研究，作为网络安全公司，在下跌中看起来更好，该领域倍数极低。只需削减营销，客户粘性高。 UNH - 美国医疗很烂但不会消失。认为Warren等人知道这一点。 TGT 🐈 - 下月分红，大股息股票。我认为现在是大量建仓的好时机。 IREN 🐈 - 巨大的GW，预计获得Mag7或类似交易。 WYFI - 任何Neocloud都是买入（例如见关于Mag7将收入导向这些小型10亿-50亿公司的论点）。 WULF - Neocloud博弈 CIFR - Neocloud博弈 SLNH - Neocloud博弈 BITF - Neocloud博弈 GLXY - Neocloud衍生品博弈 FLNC - Neocloud能源博弈 MU - 中国风险解除，内存在那里有巨大市场，内存也可能在数据中心建设中重估。 _ 卖出 ETH - 不喜欢$4k+的以太坊 BMNR - 如果我不喜欢这些水平的以太坊，持有国库公司也没意义 PL - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） BLSKY - 低营收，太空股（极高估值） RGTI - 量子泡沫 OKLO - 核能泡沫 IONQ - 量子泡沫 QBTS - 量子泡沫 _ 快速宏观提示： -> 9天后降息，概率~97%。预期抢跑，做多。就这些。
英文原文
October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week. Personal thoughts and explanations: 🛝 = Swing Trade 🐈 = Catalyst Trade 🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested Fire Sale 🔥 $NBIS Strong Buy $TSM $AMKR $WLAC $AMZN $LTC 🐈 $RDDT $HIMS 🛝 $IBIT $ALAB $CRDO $SMCI $FLY 🎇 $SNAP 🎇 $ETOR 🎇 $LULU 🎇 Buy $AMD $HOOD $RBRK $UNH $TGT 🐈 $IREN 🐈 $WYFI $WULF $CIFR $SLNH $BITF $GLXY $FLNC $MU (Skipping Hold, since any other stock I've mentioned in the past, it probably just hold it since nothing's changed). Sell $ETH $BMNR $PL $BLSKY $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS _ So macro wise, we are 9 days away from (~97% or so rate cut). Market is in fear mode. This is the ideal time to go long and not cut positions. Fire Sale _ $NBIS - Needs no explanation, I still maintain $400 PT on a bull case 2026 due to 4-6B+ forward revenue off ~60-75% gross margins, and another likely hyperscaler contract (eg. $META) What happened on the 10%+ drop on Friday was mechanical hedging and MM Pinning. You can see this with the price stuck at $113.5, despite any volatility. I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up. I ended up buying 6 figures worth of calls on the drop as there was no material changes. Strong Buy TSM - Holy crap, please have this in your portfolio. This is a money printer, and scaling your revenue by 38-40% every year WHILE increasing gross margins is just insane. It dipped as well after smashing earnings so it's one of the easiest longs in my life. AMKR - I don't have this in my portfolio yet but will be looking to add due to TSM's involvement in Arizona and potential to be a big partner in the US supply chain (as America tries to push TSM toward US fab + manufacturing). WLAC - Neocloud SPAC IPO, large upside. I talk about this a lot recently, but it's probably one of the best valued Neoclouds out there, and already has great profit margins (not a pivot from miners, where it's a bit more uncertain). They work with Fluidstack, and I'd expect a 500%+ re-rating on top of a Mag7 contract. AMZN - $213 is insane lol. I have no clue how this is down -3% YTD during a bull market. LTC - Affected by crypto liquidations and government shutdown delaying ETFs. Great time to buy and just wait for ETF to be approved. RDDT - Great dip to $190. I thought $200 would be a bottom but ended up going lower. The news about ChatGPT citing it less caused a large sell-off which I think was very immaterial. HIMS - 14%+ drop off CEO share sale. Owners sell shares all the time, it doesn't really affect the fundamentals of the company much, just short term sentiment. I'd expect it to rebound. IBIT - Bitcoin $108k great entry point, it's been swinging between $110k - $120k for awhile so anything under is usually great. ALAB - I said this last time but it sold off way too much from news of a new competitor. It's already competing vs AVGO in the market lol, NVDA-like margins, growing hundreds of percent Y/Y, Mag7 using them in data center buildout. CRDO - Similar thesis to ALAB, sold off alongside Astera but a bit less. SMCI - Should get re-rated for 55%+ or so revenue growth into next year. I doubted the projections earlier but with the data center growth, it's looking realistic. FLY - This was a medium lift payload play. People doubt fly's execution but NOC co-developing medium lift takes a lot of risk off the table (and possible re-rating it 500%+ when it competes vs falcon9) SNAP - Did the math on Snap monetization of memories in an earlier DD post and it's completely not priced in yet. It's doing $1.3B+ quarterly revenue on a $13B market cap lol, and the amount FCF they would get from increasing their revenue + lowering Google OPEX costs is insane. ETOR - Majority cash, growing at IBKR rates, suffering from tax harvesting LULU - Suffering from tax harvesting + competition from Alo, Vuori, etc. But seasonally should be good, and extremely low p/e now. Buy AMD - ChatGPT putting in AMD orders, ORCL building out AMD data centers. Likely going to get a re-rating in the next year as a potential $NVDA competitor. Still think Nvidia will dominate but with it's 4.5T marketcap, AMD has a lot to catch up on even if it takes a small percent share. HOOD - Looking at a lot better after the 10%+ correction. Could pull a PLTR RBRK - Did DD on this earlier, looks better on the drop as a cybersecurity company really low multiples in the space. Just needs to cut back on marketing, customers sticky. UNH - Healthcare is sht in America but not going anywhere. Think Warren and the others know this TGT 🐈 - Dividend next moth, big dividend stock. Around now is a good time to load up IMO IREN 🐈 - Huge GW, expect mag7 or similar deal. WYFI - Any neocloud is a buy (eg. see thesis on mag7 funneling revenue down toward these small 1B-5B companies) WULF - neocloud play CIFR - neocloud play SLNH - neocloud play BITF - neocloud play GLXY - neocloud derivative play FLNC - neocloud energy play MU - China derisked, memory had a huge market there, memory also likely going to get re-rating in tdata center buildout _ Sell ETH - Not a fan of Ethereum at $4k+ BMNR - If I don't like Ethereum at these levels, no point of holding treasury companies PL - Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) BLSKY -Low revenue, space stock (extremely high valuation) RGTI - Quantum bubble OKLO - Nuclear bubble IONQ -Quantum bubble QBTS - Quantum bubble _ Quick macro heads up: -> Rate cut in 9 days ~97% odds. Frontrunning expected, go long. That's all.
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解释高确信度持仓与多股并发波段交易策略
批评得中肯。我认为一个重要的细微差别是，我的投资组合大部分是高确信度的（比特币、金融科技、新云厂商、$RKLB）。我只拿出较小比例用于主动波段交易+中期持有以等待重估（$SNAP、$ETOR），而这些正是我在市场持续下跌而非反弹时的亏损来源。这是我的个人交易风格，同时监控40多只股票，因为我不长期持有主动交易头寸，例如，如果我在$HIMS下跌14%时以50美元买入，随后上涨8%，我就会止盈。我发现如果同时操作大量股票，这种策略通常效果最好，否则等待单只股票（如Reddit）波段回归的时间会太长。我个人对此方法取得了成功，所以我会继续这样做。
英文原文
That’s fair criticism. I think an important nuance is majority of my portfolio is in high conviction (bitcoin, fintech, neoclouds, rklb). I take a smaller percentage just for active swing trading + medium term holds for re-rating (snap, etor) and these were my losses when it kept dipping instead of any recovering. It’s my personal trading style monitoring 40+ stocks at once since I don’t long term hold active trades, eg. If $HIMS went up 8% when I bought it at $50 on the 14% drop, I’d take profit. And it usually works the best if I do a ton of stocks concurrently, otherwise the waiting period would be too long just waiting for one stock swing back like Reddit. I’ve found success with it personally so I just keep doing it.
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博主在 HIMS 大跌时加仓，表示拥抱波动。
@DeepValueBagger 我今天实际上在 $HIMS 下跌 14.34% 至 50.7 美元时加仓了。拥抱波动 🎢
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger I just added $HIMS today actually at $50.7 on the 14.34% drop Embrace the volatility 🎢
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分享受关税影响较小的个股建仓及宏观恐慌下的逢低买入机会。
关于持仓变动： 新建 $DKNG 仓位 - $32.7（看起来估值不错，下跌7%） 买入 $UNH - $356（下跌3%） 买入 $AMZN - $217.8（下跌4%） 感觉这些股票受关税影响最小，尤其是 Draftkings 哈哈。 另外，由于宏观担忧因特朗普的一条推文突然浮现，$SPY 下跌1.65%提供了绝佳的逢低买入机会。 举几个例子： $AMZN - 下跌3.7% $AMD - 下跌8.27% $HIMS - 下跌8% $SNAP - 下跌5.1% $META - 下跌3.07% $WLAC, $NBIS 始终适合定投(DCA)。
英文原文
In terms of position changes: Started new $DKNG position - $32.7 (seems pretty good value, 7% drop) Bought $UNH - $356 (3% drop) Bought $AMZN - $217.8 (4% drop) Just felt these were the least unaffected by tariffs, especially Draftkings lol.
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宏观恐慌提供买入机会，重点阐述$FLY与诺斯罗普合作开发中型火箭的高赔率逻辑。
此外，由于特朗普的一条推文导致宏观恐慌突然重现，$SPY 下跌 1.65% 是一个绝佳的逢低买入机会。 举几个例子： $AMZN - 下跌 3.7% $AMD - 下跌 8.27% $HIMS - 下跌 8% $SNAP - 下跌 5.1% $META - 下跌 3.07% $WLAC 和 $NBIS 始终适合定投(DCA)。 （引用内容）： 自从我在 Reddit 发帖后，很多人询问我的 $FLY 投资逻辑，如下： Firefly 是一家像 $RKLB 这样的火箭公司，正在开发可重复使用的中型运载火箭。 目前唯一存在的只有 SpaceX。 他们目标在 2026-2027 年实现，如果成功，公司市值将重估至 300-700 亿美元，即从当前（44 亿市值）上涨 1000-2000%。 更多细节： 300-700 亿市值的估算基于 $RKLB 的倍数，且仅假设中型运载火箭业务成功。（我忽略了其他业务板块和当前超过 10 亿美元的收入积压订单）。 在中型运载火箭业务上：预计年收入约 9-13 亿美元，在可行的发射节奏（8-12 次）下毛利率为 30-40%。猎鹰系列(Falcon-class)的定价支持这一预期。 所以现在唯一的问题是，FLY 能成功吗？ 在 Firefly 公司最近一次发射失败后，股价下跌 50%，市场已经计入了未来失败的特征。空头指出 Alpha 火箭的失败代表了执行风险。然而，他们完全错误地定价了这种风险…… 他们应该问的问题是，诺斯罗普(Northrop)和 Firefly 能否共同成功？ 这是美国最大的航空航天国防承包商之一诺斯罗普与一家市值仅 40 亿美元的小型发射公司之间的联合开发(CO-DEVELOPMENT)。 诺斯罗普此前确实有自己的中型运载火箭，但不得不终止。诺斯罗普之前的发射器 Antares 230 在俄罗斯 2022 年入侵乌克兰之前是有效的，随后供应链被切断。 然而，诺斯罗普面临生存问题：它无法再制造自己的第一级火箭。因此，为了节省时间，他们寻找一家拥有现成推进系统和结构的美国合作伙伴：Firefly。 -> 动机：Firefly 的 Miranda 发动机提供了即插即用的替代方案，可立即构建中型运载火箭。 现在你拥有一枚将在 2026-2027 年由 Firefly 货币化的中型运载火箭（因为诺斯罗普持有该公司股份），只需使其可重复使用，这是最难的部分。 但诺斯罗普不仅仅是“帮忙”。它在各个方面结构性地降低了风险。诺斯罗普的系统加上 Firefly 的新太空发动机，占据了稀缺且高需求的护城河（美国可重复使用中型运载），已通过 TacRS 和超过 10 亿美元的积压订单以及美国“金穹顶”防御系统催化剂得到验证。 因此，如果 Firefly 在中型运载火箭上成功并建立巨大护城河成为下一个 SpaceX，购买 Firefly 的风险回报是不错的。 （我的投资组合中也有 $RKLB，我只是认为由于中型运载火箭已与诺斯罗普存在，成功实现可重复使用中型运载的机会高于正常水平）。 显然，Rocketlab 实现可重复使用中型运载的成功概率更高，但这已反映在其 320 亿美元以上的市值中，而 Fly 的市值仅为 44 亿。 我认为 $FLY 在当前估值下是一个有趣的 10 倍潜力股，前提是它能在未来一两年内成功。而且我只是真的很喜欢火箭。 我还让 Grok 计算了概率，因为 XAI 由火箭人(Rocketman)本人拥有。 输出： 到 2027 年底，Rocket Lab 有 90%+ 的机会实现可重复使用中型运载飞行（可能在 2026 年中），得益于其先发优势、经过验证的执行力和内部控制。 Firefly/诺斯罗普达到 75-80% 的概率，得益于诺斯罗普的遗产，但受限于 Firefly 较新的运营记录。额外的一年缩小了差距——如果 Antares 330 按时飞行且 Miranda 发动机规模化，Firefly 可能在 2027 年底匹配或超过 Neutron 的节奏。 如果两者都成功（这是一个巨大的假设），RKLB 的市值可能重估至 600 亿美元，$FLY 可能重估至 400 亿美元，仅仅是因为太空 TAM 因国家安全风险和企业部门建设而迅速增加，可能只需再等一年。
英文原文
Also since macro fears randomly appeared today with a Trump tweet, it’s an amazing dip buy opportunity on $SPY 1.65% drop. Just some examples: $AMZN - down 3.7% $AMD - down 8.27% $HIMS - down 8% $SNAP - down 5.1% $META - down 3.07% $WLAC, $NBIS always good to DCA.
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博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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坚持独立思考，视TrumpRX为NBIS等公司护城河的验证。
@foogleman1234 忽略噪音并坚持独立思考是很好的。例如，我喜欢 $HIMS，但如果我认为某件事（如 TrumpRX）确实是净负面因素，我会指出它是逆风。在这里，我只将其视为对 $NBIS 和其他公司的利好，以及对其护城河的验证。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 It's good to ignore the noise and do your own thinking. For example, I liked $HIMS but I would call out that something is a headwind (eg. TrumpRX) if I thought it actually was a net negative. Here I just see it as a positive for $NBIS and others and a validation of moat.
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询问布莱恩·约翰逊是否背书HIMS股票
@bryan_johnson 这是对 $HIMS 股票的背书吗？
英文原文
@bryan_johnson Is this an endorsement for $HIMS stock?
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感谢博主运营账号，称其给社区留下持久影响。
@jonathanrstern 感谢运营这个账号。我通过 Hims House 关注 $HIMS 新闻的频率很高。希望你回首往事时能露出微笑，知道你给社区留下了持久的影响。
英文原文
@jonathanrstern Thanks for running the account. I tuned in a lot to get news on $HIMS through Hims House. I hope you can smile looking back knowing you left a lasting impact on the community.
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分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。
我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。 我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。 所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。 即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。 这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。 如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。 再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。 如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。 无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。 （引用内容）： 激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。 另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。 你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。 这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。 然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票 例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。 例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。 此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。 随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。
英文原文
I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.
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HIMS 面临政府竞争，但用户粘性强且空头回补预期支撑股价。
是的，我在 $HIMS 60 美元左右减仓了，但政府与其竞争这一因素相当重大。同时我认为其用户粘性高，且下半年有 Zava 收购带来的顺风效应，加上 33% 的做空比例。因此我预计股价将在此区间徘徊，甚至可能因空头回补而上涨。它并非极度低估或高估，但目前有更好的多头标的。
英文原文
Yeah I trimmed $HIMS around $60, but this is pretty material with the government competing with it. At the same time I'd aruge the audience is sticky + they have Zava acqusition tailwind second half + 33% short interest. So I'd just expect the price to hover around these levels or maybe even increase while shorts use this time to cover. It's not extremely undervalued or overvalued but there's better longs at the moment.
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博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
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博主感谢粉丝创意支持，分享互动乐趣。
我简直无语了！冰箱上的打印图是我两个月前开始用 X 以来见过的最棒的东西。在 $NBIS 和 $HIMS 等股票突破前，帮助他人并分享我的观点让我乐在其中。感谢大家的支持，也感谢 @Neat_Lama 带来的欢乐氛围！
英文原文
I'm at a loss for words! The fridge print is the best thing I've seen on X since I started 2m ago. I have a fun time helping others and sharing my thoughts on stuff from $NBIS to $HIMS before any breakouts. Thanks for the support everyone and @Neat_Lama for the fun vibes!
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
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HIMS大幅降价促增长，预期股价涨至100美元。
@unusual_whales 随着价格下调1000%，$HIMS 将开始付费让大家服用 🐓药丸。股价很快将升至100美元，人口激增，感谢特朗普。
英文原文
@unusual_whales With 1000% price reduction, $HIMS will start to pay everyone to take 🐓pills. $100 share price soon and population boom, thanks Trump
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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博主回顾交易表现，强调基于独立研究无需依赖粉丝资金。
@moonman6577 谢谢！是的，$UPWK 确实花了一个月，但最终涨幅超过 45%。 我通常方向判断正确，但有时时机会稍差一点。不过很多时候我也判断得很准，比如 $HIMS 或 $ETH。 我不需要粉丝带来的资金，因为我基于自己的独立研究(DD)进行交易，且行之有效。
英文原文
@moonman6577 Thanks! Yeah $UPWK did take a month, but ended up being 45%+. I'm usually directionally correct but sometimes get timing off a bit. A lot of other times I got it spot on lol like with $HIMS or $ETH tho I wouldn't need follower $ because I trade on my own DD and it works
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博主展示1000万高风险迷因组合，探讨极致收益与归零风险。
很多粉丝来自WSB（华尔街梗），没有风险过滤机制。如果我要用1000万美元为Reddit构建一个“迷因组合”以尝试最大化利润： 期权 $NBIS 3月20日 $130看涨期权 500万美元 AMZN 3月20日 $225看涨期权 200万美元 RUT 12月19日 $2400看涨期权 50万美元 2倍杠杆 $IREN 100万美元 $CIFR 100万美元 HIMS 50万美元 显然不推荐这样做，但如果我今天真的想尝试赚取1000%的收益，我会按当前价格这样操作。 如果你有1000万，好奇你会做什么风险博弈来换取豪宅还是温迪的垃圾桶。
英文原文
Lot of followers were from WSB with no risk-filter. If I had to build a meme-port for Reddit with $10m to try and maximize profit: Options $5M $NBIS Mar 20, $130 Call $2M AMZN Mar 20 $225 Call $500k RUT Dec 19 $2400 Call 2x Leverage $1M $IREN $1M $CIFR $500k HIMS Obviously not recommending this, but if I legitimately wanted to try and make 1000% I'd do this as of today's prices. If you had 10M, curious what risk-play you would do for a mansion vs. Wendys Dumpster.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
英文原文
I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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博主分享核心持仓与主动交易策略，反思若全仓操作收益或超6000%。
除非隐含波动率(IV)低于33%，否则我不做期权交易，比如 $GOOGL 或 $TSM，每笔都获利 $100K+。 通常我会持有一批高确信度的核心股票，如 $HOOD、$RKLB、$IBIT、$NBIS，并持有固定时间。 还有一篮子随机标的，如 $GRAB、$AMZN 等。 然后我会预留大量资金用于主动交易，这些我通常在 X 上发布。 有太多暴涨机会值得思考，比如减半前的 MSTR、Hood、SMCI、HIMS 等。我几乎抓住了每一次突破，但出于风险管理，只投入了组合中较小比例的资金。 如果每次我都全仓押注，哈哈，我的收益可能已经涨了 6000%+。
英文原文
I don't do options unless it's <33% IV things, such as $GOOGL or $TSM, both $100K+ profit each on. Usually I hold a core portfolio of high conviction stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $IBIT, $NBIS for a set amount of time. A basket of random stuff like $GRAB, $AMZN, etc. Then I set aside a good amount for active trading, which I usually post on X. Just too many run-ups to think about, like MSTR pre-halving, Hood, SMCI, HIMS, etc. I kind of caught every breakout but only put a smaller percentage of my portfolio into that for risk management. I'd probably be up 6000%+ if I full ported every time lol.
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HIMS受降息预期及基本面驱动，空头平仓推升市值至2000亿。
顺风因素将是三次降息。我原以为睾酮产品发布+PPI会是主要催化剂，但SI从36升至42。尽管我发帖时股价为$48，随后涨至$57。$HIMS只需通过Zava收购持续增加营收，基本面将导致空头在每次回调时平仓。意外的150%SS可能是收购等事件，否则看起来像是随着空头逐步平仓，市值缓慢升至$200B+。
英文原文
Tailwind would be triple rate cut. I thought testosterone product launch + PPI would be the main trigger but SI increased from 36 -> 42. Stock still went up when I posted at $48 to $57 though. $HIMS just need to keep increasing revenue with Zava acquisition and fundamentals will cause shorts to cover on every dip. A surprise 150% SS would be an acquisition or something but otherwise looks like one of the gradual ones with short positions covering over time to $20B+ mc.
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对比HIMS逼空潜力与NBIS基本面涨幅，供投资者选择。
@GrassKaniKani $HIMS 的空头持仓率(short interest)为42%，随时可能引发150%的逼空(short squeeze)行情。 $NBIS 仅凭基本面就很可能再涨100%。 在逼空情景下，HIMS 的上涨潜力最大；而 NBIS 则可能仅凭惊人的增长就实现反弹。 请自行选择风险。
英文原文
@GrassKaniKani $HIMS has 42% short interest and can short squeeze 150% any moment. $NBIS is likely to rise another 100% just based on fundamentals. HIMS has highest upside potential under a short squeeze scenario, NBIS likely rallies just based on staggering growth. Pick your poison.
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回顾UPWK、HIMS和OSCR的交易点位与表现
@DanielTan64198 太棒了！如果你还在持有，$UPWK 可能已经上涨了 50%+。$HIMS 我在大约 $25 时推荐过，后来在 $48 时又推荐了一次。 $OSCR 是一笔我曾在 $14 左右发布的波段交易，在 $22 卖出会是个不错的选择，但很高兴听到你做得很好。
英文原文
@DanielTan64198 Nice! $UPWK was probably 50%+ if you're still holding. $HIMS I called out at like $25 and again at $48. $OSCR was a swing trade I think I posted at $14 and a good sell would have been $22 but glad to hear you're doing well
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欢迎HIMS传播团队入驻X，以对抗做空谣言。
@HimsHersComms 很高兴你终于加入！在这里拥有一个传播团队来对抗做空者的虚假信息非常重要。X 上有一个庞大的 $HIMS 社区。
英文原文
@HimsHersComms Glad you finally joined in! It's important to have a communications team here to combat all the false information from short sellers. X has a huge $HIMS community.
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前花旗分析师爆料卖方数据造假，其合伙人却重仓做空HIMS。
千真万确：前几天我和一位前花旗(Citi)卖方分析师共进午餐。他告诉我，他们凭空捏造数据，以便在公司活动和投资者晚宴上与大家相处融洽。不幸的是，他们的合伙人对 $HIMS 做空超过45亿美元，而人们都知道其目标价(PT)是胡扯。
英文原文
True story: I had lunch with a former Citi sellside analyst the other day. He told me they pull numbers out of thin air so they can get along better at the corporate events and investors dinners. Unfortunately their partners are short $4.5B+ on $HIMS and ppl know the PT is bs
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分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
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做空叙事失效，广告监管新闻对$HIMS无实质影响。
@himshouse 做空者的叙事逻辑站不住脚，因为超过42%的$SI（Silicon Motion Technology）和45亿美元以上的美元面临无限亏损的风险，随着HIMS增长并完成其在欧盟收购120万+更多客户的交易。关于措辞严厉的信件涉及广告的新闻对$HIMS没有实质性影响。
英文原文
@himshouse Short seller narratives since 42%+ SI and $4.5B+ USD is at risk of infinite loss as HIMS grows and completes it's EU acquisition of 1.2m+ more customers. The news about strongly worded letters about advertisements has no material affect on $HIMS.
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认为HIMS能解决某问题
@unusual_whales $HIMS 可以解决这个问题。
英文原文
@unusual_whales $HIMS can fix this.
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看好NBIS回调买入，认为HIMS短期潜力最大。
我高确信度的股票不多，但 $NBIS 在 90 美元时是其中之一。任何回调都是强力买入机会。 一家拥有如此多远期营收的公司市值仅为 210 亿美元，这简直不可思议。$IREN 也很棒，但目前更具投机性且需要稀释。 不过 $HIMS 在未来 3 个月内的潜力最大，空头比率(SI)高达 42%。https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
英文原文
I don’t have many high conviction stocks but $NBIS is one at $90. Strong Buy on any dip 21B MC for a company with so much forward rev is insane. $IREN is great as well but more speculative atm + needs dilution $HIMS has the most potential though over the next 3m from 42% SI. https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV
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分析$HIMS突破交易逻辑，指出抢跑宏观预期收益最大。
是的，宏观因素是其中很大的一个方面。当我做 $HIMS 的突破交易时，我考虑了抢跑降息作为对42%做空比例(SI)的买入压力，以及PPI数据+惊喜睾酮产品发布，当时股价低于$50，从而创造了突破+逼空(short squeeze)。 由于降息几乎确定，股票已经被抢跑。但大量未平仓合约(open interest)将在19日到期。这通常有助于许多散户基于“九月抛售(Sell in September)”进行看空押注，但做市商(MMs)可能会总是清洗看涨期权(calls)。 我不知道当天的方向，所以我承担的风险较小，但抢跑(frontrunning)赚得最多。
英文原文
Yeah macro is large aspect of it. When I do breakouts like for $HIMS I considered front running rate cut as buying pressure for the 42% SI as well as PPI data + surprise testosterone product release when it was back sub $50 to create a breakout + short squeeze. Stocks already got frontran since cuts at almost certain. But much open interest expiring 19th. Helps a lot of retail bet bearish from “Sell in September” usually, but MMs might always flush calls. I don’t know the direction day of so im taking less risk but front running made the most money.
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博主晒出多只股票交易成功案例，展示其交易记录以证明实力。
喜欢看大家晒盈利截图。看看我的 $RDDT 发帖历史——到目前为止，我分享的每一次突破都成功了：$GOOGL、2倍杠杆的 $HIMS、$ETH、$UPWK、$RKLB、$OSCR 都中了。去 X/Reddit 上翻翻我的历史记录，亲自看看。我是 X 的新人，但暂时在这里帮助大家学习交易。
英文原文
Love seeing people post profits. Check my $RDDT post history—so far, every breakout I’ve shared from $GOOGL, 2x $HIMS, $ETH, $UPWK, $RKLB, $OSCR has hit Scroll through my history on X/Reddit and see for yourself. I’m new to X but here temporarily to help people learn to trade
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强调$HIMS高做空比例带来的逼空潜力，认为风险收益比值得。
我不知道该强调多少次了，关于 $HIMS 一家市值110亿美元、盈利且快速增长的公司，做空比例(short interest)高达42%……有潜力像 $OPEN 或 $GME 那样，在逼空(short squeeze)行情中创造历史。 风险收益比(risk reward)值得博取。
英文原文
I don’t know how to reiterate this enough for $HIMS 42% short interest on a 11B, profitable, and fast growing company… has the potential to make history on a short squeeze like $OPEN or $GME. The risk reward is worth it. https://t.co/xoCKXMzdqu
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博主抨击收费交易课程为骗局，强调展示真实获利能力。
友情提醒：如果你真的是一个日内波段/算法交易者，你就不需要在 Discord 上售卖 50 美元的付费课程。 这些人是 X 上最大的“江湖骗子”（snake oil scammers）。 这也是我开设账号的主要原因之一，向人们展示如何从市场中真正获得回报 https://t.co/sQYIyHv9Yz
英文原文
PSA: If you were an actual swing/algorithmic trader, you wouldn’t need to sell $50 paywalled courses on Discord. These people are the biggest snake oil scammers on X. They’re one of the main reasons I started an account to show people how to actually make returns from markets https://t.co/sQYIyHv9Yz
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建议同时持有UPWK和HIMS，前者避税，后者博反弹。
@mattia030339 我会说两个都做，除非你的仓位已满。$UPWK 自从我发帖以来涨了很多，所以可能最好持有它以获得长期资本利得税优惠。否则，$HIMS 由于42%的做空比例，如果在回调时能买入，可能在近中期有更大的潜力。
英文原文
@mattia030339 I’d say do both unless you’re full port. $UPWK went up a ton since i posted so might be a good idea to just get long term capital gains tax on it. Otherwise $HIMS probably has more potential near/mid term cause of 42% short interest, if you can catch it on a dip.
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类比HOOD估值，指出HIMS盈利且市值小，空头因股价坚挺而恐慌。
@himshouse 这让我想起当 $HOOD 股价交易在 18 美元时，所有人都给出 12 美元目标价(PT)的情景。 42%的做空比例(Short Interest)在股价于他们额外做空 6% 后仍守住 50 美元时感到恐慌。 $HIMS 实现盈利，正在收购公司，市值仅 100 亿美元，且有新产品发布。
英文原文
@himshouse This reminds me when everyone gave $HOOD a $12 PT when the stock was trading at $18. The 42% short interest are scared when price is holding $50 after they shorted another 6%. $HIMS is profitable, acquiring companies, small 10B market cap, and with new product launches.
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博主列出下月基于潜力最看好的五只股票及买入逻辑。
如果我要根据潜力在下个月买入5样东西： 1. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例(SI)，新产品/降息催化剂+120万欧盟客户。逼空不可避免，只是时间问题。 2. $LTC - 抢在机构之前，为10月2日的ETF发行做准备。 3. $NBIS - 仅基于微软(MSFT)的交易，股价轻松达到100美元以上。抱歉了$IREN持有者。 4. $CRDO - 仅仅是为了追赶$ALAB的市值(MC)。 5. $HOOD - 鉴于标普(S&P)按市值加权且HOOD市值超1000亿美元，纳入标普的流入资金将大幅增加其市值。
英文原文
If I had to buy 5 things for the next month by potential: 1. $HIMS - 42% SI, new product/rate cut catalyst + 1.2M EU customers. Short squeeze inevitable, just a matter of time. 2. $LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd. 3. $NBIS - Should easily be $100+ just based off of MSFT deal. Sorry $IREN holders. 4. $CRDO - Just to catchup $ALAB MC. 5. $HOOD - S&P inclusion flows will add a ton to the market cap given S&P is weighted by MC and hood is $100B+.
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HIMS空头加仓压制股价，高融券率下若买盘持续将引发轧空。
分析有误。对于 $HIMS，主要是因为空头又卖空了超过 2.5% 的流通盘，以防止股价突破 50 美元并触发抛物线式轧空（parabolic squeeze）。目前约 42% 的股票被卖空，如果买盘持续，他们将陷入困境。
英文原文
Analysis is off. For $HIMS it’s mainly because short sellers shorted another 2.5%+ of the float to prevent the stock from breaking out from $50 and triggering a parabolic squeeze. ~42% of the stock is now sold short and they’re trapped if buying pressure continued. https://t.co/QvgQu4MQod
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博主复盘分享头寸单日涨跌，承认$ETOR看错，并说明后续发帖计划。
第二天——我分享的头寸单日回报： $TSSI：$14.40 → $15.76 (+9.44%) $HIMS：$47.85 → $51.17 (+6.94%) $NBIS：$91.00 → $96.20 (+5.71%) $TSM（杠杆）：$253.60 → $261.79 (+3.23%) $ETOR：$45.00 → $43.50 (–3.33%) —— 这个看错了，但时间会证明一切。 因为已完成每小时的更新，中午就结束发帖了。 作为一次性分享，觉得全天随机聊聊想法挺有趣。我通常不提及何时止盈，因为告诉别人卖出感觉很奇怪。 如果有好的机会，我偶尔还是会回来发帖聊股票。
英文原文
Day 2 — single-day returns on the positions I’ve shared: $TSSI: $14.40 → $15.76 (+9.44%) $HIMS: $47.85 → $51.17 (+6.94%) $NBIS: $91.00 → $96.20 (+5.71%) $TSM (leverage): $253.60 → $261.79 (+3.23%) $ETOR: $45.00 → $43.50 (–3.33%) — got this one wrong, but time will tell. Wrapping up mid-day since I’m done with the hourly posts. As a one-off, thought it’d be fun to share some random thoughts throughout the day. I usually don’t mention when I take profit since it feels weird to tell people to sell. I’ll still drop in from time to time to post about stocks if there's a good opportunity.
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作者认为$HIMS增长强劲，确信将引发空头回补。
@jliljliljlil 关于轧空(Short Squeeze)没有具体的时间点，它发生在空头头寸减少时。要么是出现50%以上的剧烈飙升，要么像2020年的 $TSLA 那样持续一年的缓慢轧空。鉴于 $HIMS 的增长势头以及在欧洲拥有120万客户，我非常有信心他们会进行空头回补(Cover)。
英文原文
@jliljliljlil There’s no pt on short squeezes, it’s whenever short interest decreases. Either there’s a whopping spike that goes up 50%+ or some sustained squeeze over a year like TSLA back in 2020. Given $HIMS growth + 1.2M customers in Europe, I have high conviction that they’ll cover.
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HIMS做空率极高且盈利增长，即将引发空头挤压。
超过36%的做空利率(short interest)意味着对冲基金正接近其借券做空的极限。与许多被大量做空的标的不同，$HIMS 并非无营收的投机标的，而是一家快速增长且盈利的企业。公司持续通过惊喜的产品发布（如今天）进行扩张，并即将在欧盟服务120万+客户以拓展未来营收。此时，这纯粹是一场看哪家对冲基金先平仓的竞赛——而空头挤压(short squeeze)也将由此开始。
英文原文
36%+ short interest means hedge funds are nearing the limits of how much they can borrow to short. Unlike many heavily shorted names, $HIMS isn’t a no-revenue play, it’s a fast-growing, profitable business. The company continues to expand with surprise product launches (like today) and will soon serve 1.2M+ customers in the EU to expand forward revenue. At this point, it’s simply a race to see which hedge funds cover their shorts first - and that’s when the short squeeze begins.
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降息预期推动成长股反弹，机构提前布局，年底指数或涨5-8%。
分析一下这意味着什么：短期内，这对成长股(growth stocks)非常有利，因为成长股对利率(rates)高度敏感。 像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS、$IREN、$ALAB、$CREDO 这样的许多股票将创历史新高，而 $HIMS、$CRWV、$SMCI、$MRVL、$TSSI 等股票也将恢复至历史高点(ATH)。 机构今年提前押注了“九月疲软”(September weakness)（大约在比特币达到 12.4 万美元时），因此随着降息预期叠加，股票在 9 月初再次上涨。 由于今年早些时候因关税(tariffs)和高通胀(high inflation)导致市场大幅崩盘，标普 500 指数 ETF (SPY) 的表现并未超越往年，因此我们可以看到指数在年底前再上涨 5%-8%。 17 日的降息几乎板上钉钉，所以机构正在提前布局(front-running)。散户可能认为降息当日股票会上涨，但实际消息公布后可能会导致抛售(selloff)。
英文原文
Just an analysis on what this means: short term, it's great for growth stocks = since growth stocks have high sensitivity to rates. You have a lot of stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS, $IREN, $ALAB, $CREDO that will hit all time highs or with $HIMS, $CRWV, $SMCI, $MRVL, $TSSI, and others, recovering to ATH. Insitutions frontran "September weakness" this year (Around the time BTC reached $124k), so stocks climbed again early SEPT due to rate cut on top of it. SPY hasn't really outperformed previous years either with the massive market crash earlier this year from tarrifs + high inflation so we can see index go up another 5%-8% by EOY. Rate cut is almost certain on the 17th, so institutions are front-running it. Retail probably thinks stocks go up on rate cut date, but the actual news might lead to a selloff.
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趁恐慌在 $8.22 买入 $SG，认为极度恐惧是最佳买点。
当人们感到恐慌时，我在股价跌至 $8.22 时买入 $100k 的 $SG。没有任何消息，股价下跌 8.2%+。与此同时，市场以及像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$ALAB、$CREDO、$HIMS、$APP 这样的高贝塔股票正在上涨。最佳的买入时机是在散户恐慌抛售他们 $40 买入的筹码时的极度恐惧时刻 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0
英文原文
While people are scared, bought $100k $SG on the drop to $8.22. No news, down 8.2%+. Meanwhile markets and high beta stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $ALAB, $CREDO, $HIMS, $APP are rising. Best time to buy is on the extreme fear when retail are selling the shares they bought at $40 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0
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UPWK启动回购，低估值高利润，无视季节性风险。
$UPWK 刚刚宣布启动 1 亿美元的股票回购计划，回购规模约占其流通股的 5%。 让我们再次重申以下几点： 1. 市值约 20 亿美元，年营收 7.73 亿美元，毛利率 77.8%。 2. 拥有巨额现金储备，盈利能力强，市盈率约 9 倍。扩张中的利润率 + 新业务收购并未反映在远期营收预期中。 如果你担心 $RKLB、$CRWV、$IREN、$HIMS、$WULF 等 9 月份的高贝塔股票，当你的市值如此低且正在“印钞”时，季节性因素就不重要了。 Upwork 可能是当前市场中被低估且利润极其丰厚的股票。
英文原文
$UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program. Let's reiterate this one more time: 1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins. 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue. If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money. Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.
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博主列出各领域高增长潜力股，预测5年千倍回报。
基于当前估值，我5年1000%回报的“登月”组合(Moonshot baskets)。 太空 - $RKLB (2200亿) AI - $CRWV (4700亿) 半导体(Semi) - $CREDO (2000亿), $TSSI (38亿) 加密货币(Crypto) - $BKKT (18亿) 金融科技(Fintech) - $DJT (490亿) 社交(Social) - $BMBL (62亿) 健康(Health) - $HIMS (950亿) 软件(Software) - $UPWK (190亿) 你们的选择是什么？
英文原文
My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?
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HIMS 业绩高增且盈利，空头头寸过重，建议买入持有待空头平仓。
$HIMS 在 42 美元是轻松买入并持有标的。空头头寸占流通股本比例升至 34.59%，这是一家市值 97 亿美元、空头市值超 30 亿美元的美元计价公司。 对冲基金做空像 $HIMS 这样盈利且高增长的公司，却去持有 $IONQ 和 $OKLO——这两家公司零收入却市值超 100 亿美元，这简直是愚蠢做空的定义。 HIMS 通过收购 Zava 在欧洲获得了 130 万+客户，这一利好尚未被市场预测完全定价。目前数据如下： - 2024 年营收约 14.8 亿美元（增长 69%） - 滚动十二个月营收（2025 年中）约 20.1 亿美元（增长约 88.7%） - 2025 年 Q2 营收 5.448 亿美元（同比增长 73%）。 增长最终将重创空头头寸。 简而言之：在空头平仓前，HIMS 是轻松买入并持有的标的。
英文原文
$HIMS is an easy buy + hold at $42. Short interest ⏫ to 34.59% of float and ~$3 Billion + USD / 9.7B market cap company. Hedge funds shorting a profitable, growth company like $HIMS while $IONQ and $OKLO — both with 0 revenue, 10B+ market caps is the definition of a stupid short. HIMS acquired 1.3M+ customers across Europe through the Zava acqusition, which forecasts haven't priced in yet. Currently they're doing: - 2024 Revenue~$1.48 billion (up 69%) - TTM Revenue (mid-2025)~$2.01 billion (up ~88.7%) - Q2 2025 Revenue $544.8 million (+73% YoY). Growth will ultimately screw the short position. TLDR: HIMS is an easy buy + hold until the shorts unwind.
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推荐SG等7只股票的波段机会，警示避开CRCL等3只股票的下跌。
目前有一些不错的超跌反弹/波段交易机会： 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 远离这些下跌（不要抄底）： 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
英文原文
Some decent recovery/swing trades right now 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 Stay away from these dips 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
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复盘 $HIMS 交易，指出未公开更成功的案例。
关于 $HIMS，早期卖出仅实现了 7 万美元的收益，但仍有大量未实现利润。这些只是我在 WSB 上发布的两到三个月短期交易的例子。我最成功的交易我之前并没有在 WSB 上发布过。https://t.co/Tlhc9IxdY8
英文原文
On $HIMS, sold early only realized $70K gain but again a lot are unrealized profit. These are just examples of shorter trades I post on WSB in a two-three month timeframe. My most successful trades I haven't posted before on WSB. https://t.co/Tlhc9IxdY8
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博主分享今日在BULL、SG、GME和HIMS大跌时的买入操作。
🔥今天股市大幅抛售。在$BULL下跌15%至12.28时买入了一定数量。在$SG下跌6%至$13.8时买入（有时跌至13美元低位/12.8美元高位，因此暂缓建立主要仓位）。在$GME下跌3%至$23.00时买入。在$HIMS下跌5.6%至$45.26时买入。
英文原文
🔥Fire sale today for stocks. Bought a decent amount of $BULL on the 15% drop 12.28. Bought $SG $13.8 on the 6% drop (sometimes drops to low $13/high $12.8, so hold off on major positions). Bought $GME $23.00 on the 3% drop. Bought $HIMS $45.26 on the 5.6% drop.