$VPG
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
看好绿的谐波作为中国机器人高壁垒部件龙头。
我确实认为绿的谐波(688017)是中国机器人行业里突出的零部件龙头。 我研究过很多其他机器人标的和 $TSLA Optimus 供应商，但绿的谐波非常独特。 和那些做低利润率组装、低价值零部件、或更容易被设计替换的公司相比，它不一样。 高盛研究等西方机构多次提到绿的谐波： -> 它是一家具有高技术壁垒的公司，例如谐波减速器。 -> 并且很可能在每台人形机器人里捕获高价值零部件成本，比如行星滚柱丝杠。 简单说，绿的谐波覆盖了： 1. 多种不同零部件，且进入壁垒高 2. 如果把这些部件合在一起，占每台人形机器人较高的物料清单(BOM)价值 3. 低成本大规模量产能力 这些都对应每一台被制造出来的人形机器人。 请在做决定前自己研究这个主题；但从长期看，如果你相信人形机器人行业会增长，我认为绿的谐波(688017)非常有吸引力。 主要风险来自其他新兴中国公司在不同单项零部件上抢占市场份额。 另一个风险是量产后利润率随时间下降，就像 $VPG 的传感器从早期预生产阶段的750美元降到150美元。 但总体而言，我不认为中国以外的公司，比如 Harmonic Drive(6324)，能在大规模生产上实现同样成本。这也是为什么 $TSLA Optimus 正在中国建立广泛供应链。 所以我们很可能看到供应链分化：一边是来自中国供应链、成本约1.5万到2万美元的低成本量产人形机器人；另一边是来自西方供应链、成本更高的人形机器人。 如果你只看当前市盈率并说它很高，我认为很大一部分误解来自没有看未来增长。 目前还没有真正大规模量产。智元机器人(AGIbot)最近在3月实现了1万台产量。 但未来3-5年，如果按照埃隆·马斯克和其他人的预测，每年会生产数百万台人形机器人，那么人形/机器人行业的总可寻址市场(TAM)会非常大。 所以我的预期是，回头看绿的谐波当前106.5亿美元市值，相对于它在整体机器人市场里可能捕获的份额，会显得非常小。 因此我不认为这样的投资论点应该用短期时间框架来衡量，也不认为人们应该主动交易这类名字。 它更像是一个长期投资想法：这家公司可能在未来几年指数级增长的整体人形机器人市场中，捕获相当重要的一部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique. Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk. Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times: -> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear). -> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced. In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover: 1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry 2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together 3. Mass production capability at low cost. For each humanoid made. Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling. Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components. As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors. But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China. So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains. Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth: Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March. But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year. So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market. So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these). Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.
-
众包寻找短期十倍高信念股票。
好了大家，距离上一次已经有一段时间了。 从 $VPG 到 $ASPI，很多名字都已经涨疯了。 所以来众包一份新清单： 你认为短时间内能涨10倍、信念最高的股票代码是什么，为什么？
原推 ↗英文原文
Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one. And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked. So crowdsourcing a new list: What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why? https://t.co/Rt21dTMtDK
-
VPG自其论点后涨三倍，但承认ASP估计过高且有TSLA设计替换风险。
好吧，$VPG 自我发布 thesis 以来最终涨了三倍。 我原始 thesis 里的 ASP 搞错了，量产价格是150美元，而不是管理层引用的约750美元中位数。 而且 $TSLA 设计替换风险让我降低了集中度。 但无论如何，3倍也不算差。
原推 ↗英文原文
Well $VPG ended up tripling since my thesis post. I got the ASP wrong in my original thesis, was $150 mass production rather than ~$750 midpoint quoted by management. And $TSLA design out risk made me cut concentration. But 3x regardless not too shabby. https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg
-
Sivers通过Aeva成为Boston Dynamics的激光供应商，CPO技术是物理AI开发核心
有趣的事实：同一家公司经常出现在不同的供应链中。一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为上游激光供应商，通过以下路径供应给 Boston Dynamics：Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW（CW DFB 激光器）-> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics。我个人最初其实是因为4D AI而看好Aeva的。偶然发现Sivers是他们4D FMCW激光雷达的高置信度激光供应商。所以你实际上可以在光子学领域获得机器人曝光，而用于超大规模数据中心AI的同款CW激光器也在使用。虽然近期收入增长可能是$SIVE通过Aeva为$NVDA自动驾驶汽车相关架构供应激光器批量增长。人形机器人可能要到2028年？你总能得到更多间接曝光，比如MU的内存或$INTC的边缘CPU，但当然也有更直接的曝光方式。我觉得之前已经覆盖过很多名字了，比如$VPG或Harmonic Drive。但可笑的是，CPO玩家如$SIVE其实是前沿物理AI开发的核心部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.
-
列出2026下半年四大做多主题：CPO、800VDC功率半导体、物理AI机器人、玻璃基板/先进封装。
如果你想找多头想法，2026年下半年有四个关键主题： 1. CPO，我最喜欢的主题，没有之一。我无法强调市场对它有多误解。 我在硅谷聊过的每个人现在都在私下资助光学初创公司，这是未来的重大信号。 2. 800VDC 功率半导体。我认为其他分析师某种程度上说服了我。 我曾小仓位持有 $NVTS，但令我惊讶的是它几乎翻倍了。进一步研究后，这在“哪些玩家变重要”上是一次相当剧烈的转变。 3. 物理 AI、人形机器人/机器人。你知道 $VPG 基本涨了三倍，我一直在找其他可做多玩家。 最有意思的下游多在私营部门，然后零部件主要在中国/日本。 4. 也许玻璃基板/先进封装仍然有机会，例如 $LPK。由于很多存储玩家最近已经重估，存储在列表中往后排了，不过小众 HBM4 玩家仍有很多机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Four critical themes for h2 2026 if you want long ideas: 1. CPO, #1 #1 #1 #1 favorite theme. I cannot stress how much markets misunderstand this. Everyone I've talked in SV are privately funding optical startups right now and it's a big signal of what's to come. 2. 800 VDC power semis. I think other analysts kinda convinced me on this. I was in $NVTS for a tiny bit, low concentration. But this almost doubled to my surprise. But after doing more research, it's a pretty seismic shift in terms of what players become important 3. Physical AI Humanoids/Robotics. As you know $VPG basically tripled, and there's a lot of other players I've been trying to find longs on. Most downstream of interest are private sector... Then components are mainly in China/Japan. 4. Maybe Glass Substrate / advanced packaging stuff still eg. $LPK. Memory got pushed down on the list given how much players have re-rated recently, lot of opportunity still with niche hbm4 players.
-
长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
-
列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
原推 ↗英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
-
众包人形机器人投资标的清单，汇总出现频率最高的六只股票。
这是人形机器人敞口众包列表： - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - 北京极智嘉 - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (尚未上市) - $LSCC - 亿sunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - 禾赛科技 (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT 凭记忆： Harmonic Drive、$OUST、$BOT、$VPG、$MBLY和Ubtech出现频率最高。 接下来会对这些提及最多的标的开始做尽职调查。
原推 ↗英文原文
Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list: - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - Beijing Geekplus - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (not public yet) - $LSCC - Esunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - Hesai (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT Off the top of my head: Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most. Will start doing DD into mentions.
-
两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
-
周 1 ETF 组合大涨，验证了精选跟随的回报。
Serenity 粉丝精选的“超球形 10 倍 ETF”表现。 第 1 周：+12.39% $AEHR：+56.72%（$45.08 -> $70.65） $AAOI：+39.63%（$108.86 -> $152.00） $SIVE：+35.35%（9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK） $ENAFF：+31.58%（$1.71 -> $2.25） $AL2SI：+25.44%（28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR） $ENVX：+21.30%（$5.07 -> $6.15） $BZAI：+18.99%（$1.79 -> $2.13） $POET：+16.04%（$6.11 -> $7.09） $WATT：+14.81%（$15.8 -> $18.14） $HGRAF：+14.48%（$4.49 -> $5.14） $VLN：+13.79%（$1.16 -> $1.32） $LPK.DE：+13.20%（6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR） $FLY：+13.09%（$33.16 -> $37.50） $VPG：+11.63%（$44.7 -> $49.90） $PLAB：+9.86%（$40.87 -> $44.90） $TRT：+8.33%（$5.88 -> $6.37） $EQR.AX：+7.94%（.315 AUD -> .34 AUD） $LASR：+7.92%（$60.7 -> $65.51） $ASPI：+6.67%（$4.2 -> $4.48） $P4O.DE：+5.69%（6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR） $EOS.AX：+3.11%（$9.00 -> $9.28） $ADUR：-0.29%（$10.37 -> $10.34） $MITK：-2.52%（$13.9 -> $13.55） $ALCJ：-3.41%（2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR） $TMC：-5.01%（$4.59 -> $4.36） $QURE：-9.94%（$17.21 -> $15.50） $EONR：-20.00%（$.9 -> $.72） Top 3: 1. $AEHR：+56.72% 2. $AAOI：+39.63% 3. $SIVE：+35.35% 值得一提的是 $ENAFF，回报 31.58%。 加权平均是 12.39%。 老实说还不错，大家只用一周就跑赢了年初到现在的指数回报。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Follower Picked Hyperbolic 10x ETF Performance. Week 1: +12.39% $AEHR: +56.72% ($45.08 -> $70.65) $AAOI: +39.63% ($108.86 -> $152.00) $SIVE: +35.35% (9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK) $ENAFF: +31.58% ($1.71 -> $2.25) $AL2SI: +25.44% (28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR) $ENVX: +21.30% ($5.07 -> $6.15) $BZAI: +18.99% ($1.79 -> $2.13) $POET: +16.04% ($6.11 -> $7.09) $WATT: +14.81% ($15.8 -> $18.14) $HGRAF: +14.48% ($4.49 -> $5.14) $VLN: +13.79% ($1.16 -> $1.32) $LPK.DE: +13.20% (6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR) $FLY: +13.09% ($33.16 -> $37.50) $VPG: +11.63% ($44.7 -> $49.90) $PLAB: +9.86% ($40.87 -> $44.90) $TRT: +8.33% ($5.88 -> $6.37) $EQR.AX: +7.94% (.315 AUD -> .34 AUD) $LASR: +7.92% ($60.7 -> $65.51) $ASPI: +6.67% ($4.2 -> $4.48) $P4O.DE: +5.69% (6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR) $EOS.AX: +3.11% ($9.00-> $9.28) $ADUR: -0.29% ($10.37 -> $10.34) $MITK: -2.52% ($13.9 -> $13.55) $ALCJ: -3.41% (2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR) $TMC: -5.01% ($4.59 -> $4.36) $QURE: -9.94% ($17.21 -> $15.50) $EONR: -20.00% ($.9 -> $.72) Top 3: 1. $AEHR: +56.72% 2. $AAOI: +39.63% 3. $SIVE: +35.35% Honorable mention $ENAFF with a 31.58% return. Weighted average was 12.39%. Honestly not bad everyone, you beat year index returns in just 1 week.
-
博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
-
列出一篮子“粉丝最爱”的高波动候选 ETF 组合。
Serenity 粉丝最爱的股票：抛物线增长 ETF。 有史以来最令人期待的 ETF： $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 欧元 $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - 0.315 澳元 $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 欧元 $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 欧元 $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 我没听说过这里面三分之一的名字，但如果我的关注者们对某只票有很高的 conviction，觉得它能 10 倍…… 那我也是。
原推 ↗英文原文
Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF: The most anticipated ETF of all time: $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 EUR $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - .315 AUD $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 EUR $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 EUR $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 I haven't heard of 1/3rd of these names, but if my followers have high conviction that their name will 10x... So do I.
-
分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
-
持有 VPG 作为 TSLA Optimus 传感器供给的一部分，但不确定是否会被中国伙伴替代。
@throughthetape 我持有 $VPG，因为这曾经是我做 Tesla Optimus 的多头标的。 不过，我也不能 100% 确定它们是不是已经被中国合作伙伴在量产放大时设计绕开了…… 但这段话看起来又像是它们仍然是关键供应商？真的很难完全确定。
原推 ↗英文原文
@throughthetape I have a position in $VPG since this was my $TSLA Optimus long. But, I'm not 100% sure if they got designed out or not by Chinese partners for mass production ramp... However, this statement makes it sound like they're still a critical supplier? Really hard to know for sure.
-
把 VPG 视作 Tesla Optimus 传感器供应链的一环，并引用机器人量产目标。
我很久没再聊 $VPG 了。 这曾经是我看 Tesla Optimus 放量的一个传感器标的。 本周 Sidoti 大会上有个非常重要的线索： “到 2026 年底前，每周有可能扩产到几百台机器人。” 这听起来是不是很像 Optimus？ 如果按他们 CEO 那句“每台机器人 500 到 1200 美元”的说法来看：也不差。 但当然，很多机器人供应链在真正的人形机器人大规模拐点出现之前，基本都还是死钱。 也许 Unitree IPO 会让机器人供应链稍微活跃起来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Been awhile since I covered $VPG. This was a sensor play for $TSLA Optimus Ramp. Very important breadcrumb this week at the Sidoti Conference: "Potential to scale to hundreds of robots per week by the end of 2026." Kinda sounds aligned with Optimus? No? If we go off their CEO "$500-$1.2k per robot" statement: Not too shabby. But of course, a lot of robotic supply chains are kind of dead money until the actual inflection point humanoids at scale hits. Maybe Unitree IPO sparks some life into robotic supply chains soon?
-
博主提出三种情景下的减仓应对策略：TSLA换供应商则降Optimus风险，和平时期则退国防股，加密熊市则卖HOOD
除非发生重大变化。如果$TSLA转而使用中国供应商而不是$VPG进行大规模生产，那么我关于Optimus物料清单(BOM)的论点会略微改变，我就会降低风险。如果美国突然进入和平时期、战争结束，那么最好退出国防相关股票。如果加密货币最终崩溃，可能意味着$HOOD的增长周期接近尾声，可以考虑在$100以上时退出。
原推 ↗英文原文
Unless there’s material changes. If $TSLA comes in and uses Chinese suppliers instead of $VPG for mass production, then my thesis on Optimus BOM slightly breaks and I’ll derisk. If US suddenly enters peacetime and there’s no War anymore, it’s better to exit defense related stocks. If crypto ends up crashing it’s probably near the end of the growth cycle for $HOOD and it’s fine to exit $100+.
-
博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
-
博主说明发帖时机与原则：不鼓励跟单，愿分享想法让粉丝独立判断
当我的投资论点可能发生变化时我会发帖，比如 $SNAP 的股权激励(SBC)。或者当有重大新闻时发帖，比如 $VPG 可能进行大规模生产，当时有特斯拉签约数百家中国供应商的消息。然而，我不想让人跟单交易或在我卖出时同步卖出。我更愿意分享我的想法和风险提示。然后让人们得出自己的结论。但如果人们在随机帖子中直接问我，我通常会说是否已减仓或退出了仓位。只是X平台不会把所有帖子都展示给粉丝，所以我确信很多人错过了很多更新。
原推 ↗英文原文
I post when my thesis might have changed such as $SNAP SBC. Or with possibly $VPG with mass production, when there was news on Tesla contracting hundreds of Chinese suppliers. However, I don’t want people to copy trade or sell at the same time I do. I’d rather post my thoughts, and risk disclosures. Then let people come to their own conclusions. But if people ask directly in random posts, I often say if I de-risked or exited my position. It’s just that X doesn’t show all my posts to followers, so I’m sure people missed a ton of updates.
-
强调 thesis 会随催化剂变化而更新，近期对战争股、无人机和部分瓶颈股重新转多。
感谢你指出这一点。如果你有认真看过我的帖子，你就会发现我的 thesis 其实是会变的。 市场会随着每次财报和新的催化剂（比如宏观）不断更新。 像 $SNAP 这种，如果 SBC 没有明显下降，我就会转空并退出仓位。 但如果 gcloud opex + 变现能力真的能改变局面，Evan 又把 SBC 砍下来，那它也可能被重新定价。 $VPG 我之前发过关于 Optimus BOM 改用中国供应商做量产的新闻。 最近的冲突之后，我其实又重新看多战争股、无人机公司，以及 $LPTH。 $OSS 我们也看到它涨了差不多 80%？ $VLN 我仍然觉得它被低估，只是现在价格基本和我发帖时差不多。 大家老是截图我去年看多 $IREN 的帖子，可如果它们又开一个 60 亿美元 ATM，我也能立刻转空。 很多人误以为“我在某个时间点看多”，就等于我跟一只股票结婚了；但其实只要催化剂变了，我的看法就会变。 不过话说回来，我还是喜欢像 $LPTH 和 $OSS 这样的东西，德国锗瓶颈和边缘计算的逻辑并没有变。 和 $NBIS 一样，有些东西就是需要时间去兑现。
原推 ↗英文原文
Appreciate you calling me out on that. If you ever read my posts, my thesis can change. Markets are constantly updating every earnings with new catalysts such as macro. For things like $SNAP I flipped bearish when SBC didn’t go down materially and exited my positions. But gcloud opex + monetization can materially flip it if Evan cuts SBC. $VPG i published news on Optimus BOM switching to Chinese suppliers for production. I’m actually bullish on war stocks again, drone companies, and $LPTH again due to recent conflicts. That was following the Venezuela conflicts. $OSS is up like 80%? $VLN I still think it’s undervalued but it’s around the same price I posted. People are still screenshotting me saying I’m bullish on $IREN from last year but if they launch a $6 billion ATM, I can turn bearish. Think people mistake being bullish in one point in time to married to a stock, when things materially change based on catalysts. That being said I still like things like $LPTH and $OSS, nothings changed about germanium bottlenecks or edge computing. And like $NBIS sometimes they need time to play out.
-
VPG单月获百万美元订单，体量达此前总和三分之一，前景看涨。
@savelikameisha 谢谢，我在电话会议期间睡着了 lol。如果那是后续订单，$VPG 在 1 个月内获得 $1M 的订单实际上是非常看涨的。直到 10 月，他们的总订单流为 $3.6M，而基本上他们在 1 个月内就获得了其中 1/3 的体量。
原推 ↗英文原文
@savelikameisha Thanks, I fell asleep during the call lol. $1M order in 1 month is actually really bullish for $VPG if that’s a follow-on order. Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until Oct and they got 1/3rd that volume in 1 month basically
-
VPG获Optimus大额订单，看好其未来量产预期。
对于 $VPG 来说，这实际上非常有前景：2026年1月为100万美元，这是其后续订单（可能每个机器人500美元，即2000台）。根据你们的数据，直到10月他们的总订单流为360万美元，而单月就达到了其总量的1/3.6。鉴于我们现在知道 Optimus 将在今年晚些时候加速量产，我对未来的预测比过去的预测更感兴趣。
原推 ↗英文原文
For $VPG that’s actually really promising it’s $1m for January 2026 and that’s its follow up (maybe $500/humanoid, so 2K units) Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until October and they got 1/3.6th their volume in one month from your numbers I’d be more curious about future projections rather than previous ones since now we know Optimus is ramping up later in the year.
-
VPG财报数据次要，人形机器人订单及冻结风险才是关键。
@mholz315 是的，每股收益(ER)数据只是噪音，最重要的是$VPG CEO在电话会议中提到的关于那3780万美元人形机器人订单及潜在冻结的情况。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mholz315 Yeah the ER figures are just noise, most important thing is what the $VPG CEO mentions during the call regarding humanoid orders of that $37.8M and potential freezes.
-
3700万超预期利好产能爬坡，待VPG会议澄清。
@mholz315 那个3700万美元的数字是多方面的，不仅仅是像Optimus这样的人形机器人。但由于这是一个强劲的超预期表现，这对产能爬坡(ramp)是一个积极的信号。 正如你提到的，现在最重要的是在$VPG电话会议上得到澄清。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mholz315 That $37M figure is multifaceted, it's not purely humanoids like Optimus. But it's a positive tell for ramp since it was a strong beat. As you mentioned, most important thing is clarification on the $VPG call now.
-
$VPG财报营收超预期但EPS不及预期，人形机器人业务强劲增长被市场误读。
$VPG 发布了财报。简而言之： 营收：8060万美元 vs. 共识预期：约7810万美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(EPS)：0.07美元 vs. 共识预期：约0.20-0.21美元（不及预期） 毛利率：降至36.8%（去年同期为38.2%）——主要受外汇等一次性因素影响。 值得关注点： 人形机器人板块——其2025全年目标是从“战略增长计划”（机器人、先进传感器）中预订3000万美元订单。 实际：3780万美元——这一预测被大幅超越，超出近800万美元。 其他产品有很多噪音，市场主要应关注人形机器人的增长，看起来正在加速。 当然，这3780万美元的数据是多方面的。 没什么太惊人的，但简而言之： 传统业务（钢铁、称重等）：平均在增长 新业务（人形机器人）：正在快速增长 市场对此反应错误，因为$VPG未来最看涨的板块是人形机器人，且看起来正在加速。 除此之外，虽然不算爆发式增长，但对于强劲的机器人板块超预期是积极的，我将等待电话会议以获取与人形机器人相关的问题解答。
原推 ↗英文原文
$VPG reported earnings. TLDR: Revenue: $80.6 Million vs. Consensus: ~$78.1 Million (BEAT) Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs. Consensus: ~$0.20 - $0.21 (MISS) Gross Margin: Fell to 36.8% (down from 38.2% a year ago) - mainly one off like FX. What to look out for: Humanoid section - Their goal for the full year 2025 was to book $30 million in orders from "Strategic Growth Initiatives" (Robots, Advanced Sensors). Actual: $37.8 million - They crushed this projection by nearly $8 million. There’s a lot of noise from other products, main thing markets should be looking out for is humanoid growth, which looks to be ramping up. Of course that $37.8M number is multifaceted. Nothing too amazing but tldr: Legacy Business (Steel, weighing, etc.): Is growing on average New Business (humanoids): Is growing rapidly Markets are taking this the wrong way since the most bullish segment going forward for $VPG is humanoids, and it looks to be ramping up. That aside, not exactly a blowout but positive for strong robotics segment beat, will wait for conference call for humanoids related questions.
-
展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
-
马斯克指出Optimus三大瓶颈：智能、手部及制造，暗示美韩主导核心部件。
$TSLA Optimus 瓶颈 TLDR - Elon Musk 采访： “人形机器人只有三件难事”： 1. 现实世界智能（例如 Dojo，$NVDA，三星机电） 2. 手部（~ 可能是 $VPG） 3. 规模化制造（~ 浙江华正，宁波拓普，Everwin） 关于手部： Elon 声称 $TSLA Optimus 的人手自由度比其他机器人更多。 特斯拉“设计了定制执行器、齿轮、功率电子、控制、传感器。这方面没有供应链。” Elon 在采访中基本上强调手部是机器人最涉及知识产权且最复杂的部分。Elon 重申特斯拉解决了中国其他人形机器人今天尚未解决的问题。 这使得西方制造商参与这一特定 BOM 部分的可能性略微增加（相比此前报道的中国供应链）。 关于现实世界智能方面： Elon 聚焦于：“惯性测量、GPS 信号、其他数据，将其与视频结合，主要是视频，然后输出控制命令” - 训练 ~ Cortex / Dojo 供应商，$NVDA。 - 视频与视觉：三星机电？ - IMU + GPS：$STM 或博世？ 规模化制造： 正如朝鲜日报报道，身体部分可能来自中国供应链。 从推理来看似乎是： 大脑 + 高端组件 = 美国/韩国 身体是中国（三花，拓普等）。 但再次强调，这并未确认，只是可能的供应链映射。 无论如何，Elon 为投资者指出了人形机器人量产过程中的三个瓶颈投资方向。
原推 ↗英文原文
$TSLA Optimus Bottleneck TLDR - Elon Musk Interview: "There's only three hard things for humanoid robots": 1. Real World Intelligence (eg. Dojo, $NVDA, Samsung Electro-Mechanics) 2. The Hand (~ possibly $VPG) 3. Scale Manufacturing ( ~ Zhejiang Huazheng, Ningbo TuoFu, Everwin) For the hand: Elon claimed that $TSLA Optimus has the more degrees of freedom with a human hand than other robotic humanoid. Tesla "designed custom actuators, gears power electronics, controls, sensors. There is no supply chain for this." Elon basically focused on the hand is the most IP-sensitive and complex part of the robot during the interview. Elon reiterated that Tesla solved issues with the hand that no other humanoids in China have today. This makes things slightly more probable that Western manufacturers are involved (compared to Chinese supply chains from earlier reports), with this part of this specific BOM. For the Real World Intelligence Aspect: Elon focused on: "Inertial measurements, GPS signals, other data, combining that with video, primarily video, and then outputting the control commands" - Training ~ Cortex / Dojo suppliers, $NVDA. - Video & Vision: Samsung Electro-Mechanics? - IMUs + GPS: $STM or Bosch? Scale Manufacturing: Likely Chinese supply chains as reported, by Chosun for the body. From inference looks like: Brain + high-end components = US/Korean Body is Chinese (Sanhua, Tupou, etc). But again, this is not confirmed, just possible supply chain mapping. Regardless, Elon gave investors three bottlenecks to invest in for the humanoid ramp.
-
分析$VPG在Optimus供应链中的护城河及被中国供应商替代的风险。
这只是文章的直接引用，我尚未进行深入分析。文中提到了“数百家中国供应商”，因此其他潜在威胁可能包括柯力传感、汉威电子、东华等。 关于 $VPG，我同意，考虑到他们在箔技术方面的护城河，我认为他们被要求提供高端 Optimus 版本。我目前仍持有仓位。 话虽如此，发布风险披露总是好的，以便人们自行研究，因为他们被设计剔除（design out）的可能性并非为零。毕竟 Elon 的目标是 $20K 的 Optimus 实现量产。
原推 ↗英文原文
So that’s just the direct quote from the article, haven’t gone further into analysis. It did mention “hundreds of Chinese suppliers” so other threats may be Keli Sensing, Hanwei Electronics, Donhua, etc. Regarding $VPG, agreed I’d assume they’re required high-end Optimus versions given their moat in their foil tech. And I still have positions. That being said it’s always good to publish risk disclosure so people can do their own research, since the chance they get designed out is nonzero. Elon is targeting $20K Optimus for mass production after all
-
特斯拉Optimus或分中美双供应链，高端用VPG，量产用中国。
情况比这更微妙。根据我的研究，为了实现 $20k Optimus 的廉价大规模生产，特斯拉可能正在设计两种不同的型号。大规模生产的型号可能仅采用中国供应链。然而，面向大众市场的中国传感器尚未完全匹配美国高成本、超专业化的精密传感技术。$VPG 可能被用于高端或高精度的 Optimus 版本，例如特斯拉超级工厂级别/工业级版本。因此，首批数千台特斯拉人形机器人可能会使用 $VPG。这仅仅是关于可能的大规模生产/消费级版本，这些版本很可能为了追求最低成本而交由中国制造商生产。这也发出了中国对美国本土机器人供应链构成威胁的信号。
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s a lot more nuanced than that. From my research, for cheap mass production $20k Optimus, it’s possible Tesla is designing two different models. The mass production models may just be Chinese supply chains. However, the mass-market Chinese sensors haven't quite matched US high cost ultra specialized precision sensing. $VPG may be used for high-end or high precision Optimus versions, like the Tesla giga factory grade/industrial versions. So the first thousands of Tesla humanoids may use $VPG. This was just talking about possible mass production/consumer grade versions that likely went to China manufacturers for the lowest cost possible. This also signals the threat China has on Made in America robotics supply chains.
-
确认$VPG与Optimus关联及机构长期看好逻辑
@kacper_kalinski 是的，抱歉，我应该补充说“极有可能”。$VPG 与 Optimus 的关联是由 Citron 发现的。最近我也通过几份提及因 Optimus 而长期看好 $VPG 的机构报告/通讯进行了交叉验证。https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
原推 ↗英文原文
@kacper_kalinski Yes sorry I should have added highly likely. $VPG link to Optimus was found by Citron. And cross checked that with a few institutional reports/newsletters recently that mentioned long $VPG because of Optimus. https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
-
比特币作为风险管理工具，及特斯拉垂直整合对VPG的供应链风险。
@Bonek2801 出于风险管理目的。我宁愿在约 7 万美元价位持有 50% 的比特币，也不愿持有现金以降低波动性。此外，$VPG 的下行风险在于 $TSLA 自行制造传感器并实现垂直整合，从而将其排除在供应链之外。$GOOGL 与 $LITE 在光学共封装(CPO)方面的看空逻辑也类似。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Bonek2801 Risk management purposes. I’d rather hold 50% in Bitcoin around $70K than sit on cash to lower volatility. Also the downside risk of $VPG is $TSLA creating their own sensors and vertically integrating it away. Similar bear case with $GOOGL and OCS with $LITE though.
-
修正对$SSYS看法，转向偏好高BOM价值的$VPG以捕捉机器人量产红利。
之前在 $SSYS 上犯了个错，误以为他们为机器人原型打印框架。 他们更像是机器人领域的 $ASML（阿斯麦）。 关于机器人量产爬坡（每生产一个人形机器人），我发过一篇帖子，将 $SSYS 替换为 $VPG，并引用了 @SigniaCapital 关于 Optimus 应用的分析。 其中提到，每生产一台机器人（$TSLA Optimus），他们预计每台获利约 500-1200 美元。 话虽如此，我确信 $SSYS 是个不错的长线标的，毕竟有位著名的政治家看准了一切，其投资组合中持有 $SSYS。 但我不像以前那样看好了，我更希望直接参与具有高物料清单(BOM)价值的机器人量产环节，而非初期的原型制作。
原推 ↗英文原文
So made the mistake earlier with $SSYS regarding the fact they print the frames for the prototypes of the robotics. They're more like an $ASML for robotics. For the robotics ramp (each humanoid produced), I made a post switching $SSYS with $VPG and quoted @SigniaCapital's analysis regarding applications for Optimus. There was a quote that for each robot ( $TSLA Optimus) produced, they make est. ~$500-$1.2K per robot. That being said, I'm sure it's a good long, there's one famous politician that got everything right and has $SSYS in their portfolio. But I'm not as bullish as I once was I wanted exposure to the direct robotics ramp with high BOM rather than initial prototyping.
-
复盘上月提及的AIRO、LPTH和AVAV表现，重申其投资逻辑。
大家都在走上路。所以 $VPG 是那个强力核心。说正经的，$AIRO、$LPTH 和 $AVAV 都是上个月提到的。$AIRO 自提及以来上涨了 24.9%。我进行了加仓摊平成本，所以在回调后略微盈利/持平。这是我对 $ONDS 的补涨操作，投资逻辑没有改变。$LPTH 下跌了几个百分点，作为锗(Germanium)瓶颈环节的修复方案。基本面没有发生严重的恶化。这是美国锗供应链从向中国转向黑钻(Black Diamond)的长期战略。短期2-3周的价格波动不重要。$AVAV 上涨了，但我是在320多美元时讨论的它。$RKLB 是一家市值450亿美元以上的发射公司，而 $AVAV 凭借数十亿美元的国防合同，年增长率达到三位数。所以在130-140亿美元市值时，我认为这是一个很好的长线标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
They’re all running it down Toplane. Hence why $VPG is the hard carry. Jokes aside $AIRO, $LPTH and $AVAV were all mentioned last month. $AIRO was up 24.9% since I mentioned it. Cost averaged up, so slightly green/breakeven after the drop. This was my catchup play to $ONDS and nothing about the thesis changed. $LPTH is down a few percent as a Germanium choke point fix. Nothing too dire materially changed. This was a long term US germanium supply chain pivot away from China into black diamond. Short term prices in 2-3 weeks don’t matter much. $AVAV is up, but I did talk about it in the $320s. $RKLB is a $45B+ launch company and AVAV is scaling triple digits Y/Y off billions in defense contracts. So at $13-14B I think this is a good long
-
看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头头寸。
@Cheva28789724 这是我之前关于 $VPG 的分析文章。 https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人 Humanoid 放量最不对称的单一敞口，特别是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司生产： 估计占每个人形机器人 BOM（物料清单）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆在 2027 年实现其德克萨斯州 Gigafactory 1000 万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种数学计算极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每个人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生的话）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化后的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55% 左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 85 亿美元收入以 55% 利润率计算： - 20 倍市盈率将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉涨前（3 美元 -> 113 美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30 美元 -> 453 美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领任何映射研究，它们由其他分析师完成）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年以来一直在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们自行研发专利技术/材料并放弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 放量挂钩，始终存在被放弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化的人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年将是机器人的拐点，而 $VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Cheva28789724 This was my write up about $VPG earlier https://t.co/Vno2bP3wCV
-
VPG因供应特斯拉擎天柱机器人组件，5日涨23%，被视为机器人领域核心标的。
$VPG 强势领涨，5日涨幅+23%。 对于不了解的朋友，埃隆·马斯克已将特斯拉工厂改造为擎天柱(Optimus)的生产线，计入特斯拉($TSLA)的额外收益(ER)。 这家公司每台机器人的估算中位收入为850美元。 100万台擎天柱 = 约8.5亿美元营收 1000万台擎天柱 = 约85亿美元营收 这是我的机器人领域“登月”级选股标的。观察并学习 https://t.co/a8J8aUtlSL
原推 ↗英文原文
The $VPG hard carry, +23% 5D. For people that don’t know, Elon Musk converted Tesla factories for Optimus production on $TSLA ER. This company makes est. $850 midpoint/robot. 1M Optimus = ~$850M revenue 10M Optimus = ~$8.5B revenue My robotics moonshot pick. Watch and learn https://t.co/a8J8aUtlSL
-
VPG本周涨22%，被视为Optimus量产的隐形赢家。
@sovereignsense 是的，我最近一直在谈论 $VPG。本周上涨 22%，是 Optimus 量产加速的隐形赢家。
原推 ↗英文原文
@sovereignsense Yeah I’ve been talking about $VPG a lot recently. Up 22% this week, silent winner from Optimus ramp.
-
澄清CPSH军工应用细节，指出海军项目商业化程度高于弹头研发。
这些是高频交易(HFT)算法对我帖子的反应，每当我提到 $ETOR、$VPG、$LEU 等股票代码时，你们都能看到这种现象。 你说得对，我本应该把细微差别表述得更清楚。 我的观点是：国防/太空/工业领域的应用可以延伸至 -> AI。目前的营收数字较低，因为许多仍是研究合同，但它们是许多项目的独家供应商(sole source)。 以下是更正说明： - 美国陆军作战能力发展司令部(DEVCOM)与 $CPSH 签订了一份为期两年的合同，以验证 CPSH 专有的钨注塑工艺能否制造“可控破片”弹头。 - 关于黑鹰直升机(Hawk Helicopters)的信息来自其官网：“维持像 UH-60 黑鹰这样的传统机队，为引入新型材料提供了独特机会。除了提高系统性能和减轻重量外，现代化工作还必须考虑配置灵活性和简洁性，以支持多样化场景下的作战。” - 这是关于设计“新型装甲地板”的小企业创新研究(SBIR)，该地板提供弹道防护，并可应用于传统(UH-60)和未来垂直起降(FVL)旋翼机。 - 关于美国海军，这是其新闻稿的原话：“这些面板是先进弹道屏蔽组件的一部分，旨在支持美国海军航空母舰和其他水面舰艇的弹道防护系统升级。” 上述所有应用场景均为事实。其中，如美国海军战舰的应用相比钨“可控破片”弹头而言，商业化程度更高。
原推 ↗英文原文
These are HFT algorithms reacting to my posts, you see this with every ticker mention I do from $ETOR, $VPG, $LEU, and others. You're correct I should have worded the nuance better. The point was the applicationsfor Defense/Space/Industrial could be used for -> AI. The revenue numbers are low as many are still research contracts but they are sole source for many programs. This is the correction: - U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM) had two year contract with $CPSH to see if CPSH’s proprietary injection molding process for tungsten can create "controlled fragmentation" warheads”. - For Hawk Helicators it was from their website "Sustaining legacy fleets, like the UH-60 Black Hawk, provides a unique opportunity to incorporate novel materials. In addition to improving system performance and reducing weight, modernization efforts must consider configurational flexibility and simplicity to support operations across diverse scenarios." - This was SBIR research to design a "novel armored floor that provides ballistic protection and which can be implemented in both legacy (UH-60) and future vertical lift (FVL) rotorcraft" - For US Navy, this was the quote verbatim from their PR: "The panels are an integrated component of advanced ballistic shields developed in support of ballistic protection system upgrades on U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers and other surface ships" All the applications usage above are true. Some, like US Navy Warships, are more commercialized compared to tungsten that can "controlled fragmentation" warheads”.
-
警告HFT抢跑散户，但坚持发布研究不受算法干扰。
如今，高频交易(HFT)会追踪我的每一条帖子。昨天它对市值57亿美元的$LEU也做了同样的操作。在我将$VPG与$TSLA的财报联系起来后，$VPG昨天上涨了9%。话虽如此，这看起来只是抢跑散户然后反向卖出。所以给其他人提个醒。如果像$OSS那样长期上涨，那只是信息发现。无论如何，我不会让算法阻碍我发布任何研究结果。
原推 ↗英文原文
HFT follow every one of my posts nowadays. It did the same for $LEU yesterday which is a $5.7B company. $VPG went up 9% yesterday after I quoted it with $TSLA earnings. That being said it looks like it’s just frontrunning retail -> selling back. So just a warning to other people. If it goes up longer term like $OSS that’s just information discovery Regardless I’m not going to let algorithms discourage me from posting any findings
-
看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头仓位。
@StocksSoccer 我确实持有仓位，这是我之前对 $VPG 的看法： $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人（Humanoid）放量最不对称的单一敞口，涉及： - $TSLA Optimus - Figure AI 因为这家市值5.8亿美元的公司制造： 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单(BOM)成本的3-9%。 如果埃隆在2027年实现德州超级工厂1000万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到85亿美元（850美元中位数 * 1000万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获500-1200美元（850美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每机器人成本为2-3万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每个特斯拉机器人中估计获得~3%-9%+的BOM份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约80%的价值可能来自Optimus机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为50%至55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器+外壳+电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55%左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于2028年实现1000万台人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括Figure、OpenAI或其他潜在客户） 85亿美元收入的55%利润率： - 20倍市盈率(P/E)将是476亿美元 - 30倍市盈率 833亿美元 从5.8亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 服务器机架拉涨前（3美元->113美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30美元->453美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家5.8亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线匹配研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于Citron等第三方估计的假设建模，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能不会如期进行。 - $TSLA 可能自2022年以来就在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉Optimus放量挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像2025年一样停滞（尽管2025年仍有~85%的回报）。 但总之(TLDR)： 我的观点是，像Citron这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于OpenAI上周进军机器人领域： 我认为2026年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例BOM成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头仓位来看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究(DYOR)，我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StocksSoccer I do own positions, this was my take on $VPG earlier https://t.co/OE9toKfSbh
-
马斯克宣布转产Optimus，$VPG作为核心供应链标的，潜在营收规模巨大。
马斯克在$TSLA财报电话会议中表示：“我们将用一条年产能高达100万台Optimus机器人的生产线，取代弗里蒙特工厂的Model S和Model X生产线。” 针对$VPG（市值5.89亿美元）做一些粗略估算： 100万台 * 850美元中位数（CEO在财报中引用的每台机器人500-1200美元区间）= 短期年营收8.5亿美元。 如果按马斯克1000万台的目标推算，年营收可达85亿美元…… 毛利率在50%到55%之间。 对于这样一家小公司来说，数据相当有趣。
原推 ↗英文原文
Elon Musk from $TSLA earnings: "We are replacing the Model S and Model X production line in Fremont with a line capable of producing up to 1 million Optimus units per year" Just some napkin math on $VPG (a $589M company): 1M * $850 midpoint ($500-$1.2k per robot quoted by CEO from ER) = $850m revenue/year near term. If you scale that to Elon's 10m target, $8.5B revenue/year... Off 50% to 55% gross margins. Pretty interesting figures for such a small company.
-
认同对VPG及收入确认的观点。
@willkyi 说得很对，我对 $VPG 和收入确认也有类似的看法。
原推 ↗英文原文
@willkyi Spot on, I share similar thoughts with $VPG and revenue recognition.
-
特斯拉转产Optimus机器人，利好相关供应链。
仅供参考：市场经常忽略财报电话会议中的声明（如 $TSLA）及其二阶效应（往往在很久之后才将其计入价格）。 这对于像 $VPG 这样的 Optimus 机器人供应链来说，可能是最大的新闻之一。 特别是 Optimus 现在将开始量产，而且 Elon 已将 Model S 和 X 的专用工厂转为生产 Optimus。
原推 ↗英文原文
FYI: Markets often miss statements in earnings calls like $TSLA and their second order effects (price them in much later) This is probably one of the biggest news for robotic supply chains of Optimus like $VPG. Especially that Optimus will ramping up now and that Elon has dedicated factories from Model S and X.
-
发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
-
以英特尔为例，强调基本面未变时应耐心持有，时间是最大资产。
$INTC 暴跌 17%，收盘回到 $45。 短期期权下跌 95%+，LEAPS（长期期权）下跌 40%+。 英特尔是“股票不会直线上涨”（除非是 $SNDK）的完美例证。而且它在过去 1 个月内仍上涨了 26%。 如果基本面逻辑未变（做多白宫政策/国家安全），最好等待其兑现。 对于 $AXTI 几个月内磷化铟(InP) 瓶颈潜力或 $VPG 一年后 Optimus 量产潜力的其他股票也是如此。 时间是最宝贵的资产。
原推 ↗英文原文
$INTC crashes 17% and finishes the day back at $45. Short dated options are down 95%+ with leaps down 40%+. Intel is the perfect example of “Stocks don’t move in a straight line up” (unless it’s $SNDK). And it’s still up 26% in 1M. If the fundamental thesis hasn’t changed (Long White House policy/National Security), it’s probably best to wait for it to play out. Same goes for any other stock from $AXTI InP bottleneck potential in a few months or $VPG potential Optimus ramp in a year. Time is the most valuable asset.
-
作者看好$VPG为人形机器人拐点标的，类比$SNDK/$SMCI早期，已建仓。
看来市场开始关注 $VPG 了。 这是我机器人板块的首选股。 它让我想起当前内存行情启动前 $30 的 $SNDK，最终涨至 $470。 或者 AI 建设行情启动前 $1.3 的 $SMCI，最终涨至 $100。 这可能是人形机器人行业的拐点。 https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
原推 ↗英文原文
Looks like markets are starting to find out about $VPG. This is my top robotics sector stock. And reminds me of $SNDK at $30 before current memory rally to $470. Or $SMCI at $1.3 before the AI buildout rally to $100. This may be the inflection point for robotics humanoids. https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8
-
看好$VPG作为特斯拉机器人供应链中的优质利基标的。
@leavego8102 很高兴你现在知道了 $VPG！在特斯拉 Optimus 概念股中，它是西方机器人供应链中真正优质的利基(niche)标的。大家都专注于 AI，而太空、机器人、无人机供应链方面大家关注还不多，所以我认为这里才是真正的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
@leavego8102 $VPG 를 이제라도 알게 되셔서 다행이네요! 테슬라 옵티머스 수혜주 중 서구 로봇 공급망 쪽에서는 정말 알짜배기 니치 종목이거든요. 다들 AI에만 몰두하느라 우주나 로봇, 드론 공급망 쪽은 아직 많이들 안 보는데, 그래서 저는 여기가 진짜 기회라고 생각해요
-
解析特斯拉机器人供应链瓶颈，强调寻找早期Alpha而非跟风。
我通常不会回复这种别有用心的诱导性问题，但我正在发布关于与特斯拉Optimus机器人相关的机器人供应链股票的信息综合。不幸的是，我试图发现阿尔法（Alpha），以便在早期找到下一个从$30涨到$453的$SNDK，而不是像$SOFI、$ASTS、$TSLA那样对已知的金融科技主题进行多头喊单以寻求确认偏误（Confirmation Bias）。人们似乎真的很讨厌当信息被证明方向正确，且像$OSS这样的公司获得60%以上的重估（Re-rated）时。如果信息错误，该公司第二天就会崩盘，而不是像$LPTH那样不断上涨。没人知道市场如何对信息进行定价，它可能是对的也可能是错的。而且我无法控制扫描我帖子的高频交易（HFT）算法。话虽如此，$VPG当天收盘持平。这是一个与机器人量产挂钩的多头头寸，Citron等几家机构去年已经入场。考虑到机器人行业的拐点，它现在只是处于雷达之下。
原推 ↗英文原文
I normally don’t reply to disingenuous leading questions like this but I’m posting information synthesis on robotic supply chain stocks linked to Tesla Optimus. Unfortunately I try and discover alpha to find the next $30->$453 $SNDK at the start rather than bull posting the same known $SOFI, $ASTS, $TSLA finx theme for confirmation bias. And people really seem to dislike when the information turns out to be directionally right and companies like $OSS get re-rated 60%+. If it wasn’t, the company would crash the next day instead of constantly going up like $LPTH Nobody knows how markets price in the information, it could be right or wrong. And I have no control what HFT algorithms do that scan my posts. That being said $VPG ended the day flat. This is a long position tethered to humanoid ramp that several institution like Citron already entered last year. It’s just under the radar now considering the inflection point for robotics.
-
看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，具高BOM占比与非对称收益潜力。
$VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人量产（Humanoid ramp）最具非对称性敞口的标的，尤其是针对： - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI 因为这家市值 5.8 亿美元的公司： - 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单（BOM）成本的 3-9%。 如果埃隆·马斯克在 2027 年实现德州超级工厂年产 1000 万台的目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到 85 亿美元（850 美元中位数 * 1000 万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获 500-1200 美元（850 美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的产量预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每人形机器人成本为 2-3 万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每台特斯拉机器人中估计获得 ~3%-9%+ 的 BOM 份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终 80% 的价值可能来自 Optimus 机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人量产的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了一点，即未将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为 50% 至 55%（随着当前机器人量产，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器 + 外壳 + 电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO 在财报电话会议上表示该部门利润率约为“55% 左右”。 在埃隆于 2028 年实现 1000 万人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括 Figure、OpenAI 或其他潜在客户） 55% 利润率对应 85 亿美元收入： - 20 倍市盈率（P/E）将是 476 亿美元 - 30 倍市盈率 833 亿美元 从 5.8 亿美元市值起步。 听起来很荒谬，但当我看到 $SMCI 在服务器机架拉升前（$3 -> $113）或 $SNDK 的拉升（$30 -> $453）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆（Operating Leverage）才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人量产条件成熟，这家 5.8 亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是 Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线映射研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于 Citron 等第三方估计的假设模型，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入增长可能无法实现。 - $TSLA 可能自 2022 年起就在使用 $VPG 并开始扩大规模。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉 Optimus 量产挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个人形机器人规模化博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像 2025 年一样停滞（尽管 2025 年仍有 ~85% 的回报）。 但 TLDR（太长不看）： 我的观点是，像 Citron 这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于 OpenAI 上周进军机器人领域： 我认为 2026 年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人量产的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司可能占据每个部署机器人高比例的 BOM 成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头头寸，看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究（DYOR），我只是想分享我是如何建立这个多头信念的。
原推 ↗英文原文
$VPG is one of the least known robotic supply chain stocks. However, it's likely the single best asymmetrical exposure to robotics Humanoid ramp for - $TSLA Optimus ~ Figure AI as this $580m company makes: est. ~3-9% BOM cost of every humanoid. $8.5B revenue may come from $TSLA alone ($850 midpoint * 10M) every year if Elon hits his 10M Giga Texas production target in 2027. This is based on $VPG CEO's quote on value capture of $500–$1,200 per robot ($850 midpoint) and Elon's ambitious projections on production targets. Again this math is extremely speculative, but Elon quotes $20-30k/humanoid at scale and you can derive an est. ~3%-9%+ of BOM from each Tesla Robot produced (if this does ever happen) for $VPG. If you consider Elon Musk saying "About 80% of Tesla's Value Could Eventually Come From Optimus Robots": This looks like great exposure for robotics ramp for such a small company that's critical in the robotics supply chain. What I believe markets also missed is factoring in low end corporate margins to for blended margin estimates: ~40% However, the humanoid-specific gross margin at scale is projected to be 50% to 55% (and with current robotics ramp, blended margins would likely increase significantly). Their integrated actuator/sensor Modules (sensor + housing + electronics) is likely directly tethered to humanoid exposure, (measurement systems segment which houses these complex assemblies), which the CEO said on their earnings call achieves margins of "55% or so". In a bull case scenario where Elon hits his 10M humanoid projections in 2028 (single customer, not including Figure, OpenAI, or other potential customers) 55% margin off $8.5B revenue at : - 20x P/E would be $47.6 Billion -30x P/E $83.3 Billion from $580m MC. It sounds stupid, but when I look at $SMCI pre-server rack rally ($3 -> $113) or $SNDK's rally ($30 -> $453), it looks possible. Again this is speculative best case possible scenario, but the operating leverage is the real story here. So I think it's likely for this small $580m company to be strongly re-rated if the stars align for robotics ramp. Now downside risk: - The other humanoid provider is likely to be Figure due to timeline mapping. But this is not confirmed. (not taking credit for either mapping research, they were done by other analysts). These figures are hypothetical modeling based on third-party estimates like Citron, gross margins might be compressed if there's competitors or revenue ramp might not play out. - $TSLA has likely been using $VPG since 2022 and is starting to ramp up. There is always a risk they figure out the patented technology/materials in-house and drop a customer. This bull-case scenario is tethered to Tesla Optimus ramp and there's always a risk they get dropped that markets might price in. - Again this is a humanoid scale play. If Elon's projections are too ambitious and face delays, this might be stagnant like 2025 (which was still ~85% return). But TLDR: My opinion was that institutional analysts like Citron were way too early. However, given OpenAI's push into robotics last week: I believe 2026 to be the inflection point for robotics and $VPG likely captures the best exposure to Tesla and Humanoid robotics ramp. Especially when a small company likely has high % BOM cost of each robot deployed and high gross margins: I've taken long positions to see where this ends up. Of course DYOR on this, I just wanted to share how I came to develop my own conviction on this long.
-
赞同关于$VPG的论点，看好机器人领域扩张带来的机遇。
@ThematicTrader 关于 $VPG 的论点很棒！完全同意，机器人领域的扩张带来了巨大的机遇。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ThematicTrader Great thesis on $VPG! Fully agree, ramp up on robotics presents an incredibly opportunity
-
VPG被视为机器人领域的Lite，因市场未聚焦该供应链而鲜为人知。
@StockStormX 是的，$VPG 之于机器人/$TSLA Optimus 的量产爬坡，就像 $LITE 之于 Google TPU。由于市场尚未聚焦于机器人供应链，它并不广为人知。
原推 ↗英文原文
@StockStormX Yeah $VPG is like the $LITE (Google TPU) for robotics/ $TSLA Optimus ramp up. Not very well known since markets haven't focused on robotics supply chains yet
-
作者因SSYS看错，转向寻找与Optimus产量强相关的VPG机会。
我在 $SSYS 关于原型机/量产爬坡的论点上搞砸了，所以我想要一个与机器人产量直接挂钩、且每台机器人能贡献高比例营收的机器人概念股。 这属于推测，但考虑到 $VPG 的体量，特斯拉 Optimus 每台机器人中约 3-8% 的 BOM（物料清单）价值对他们来说是不可思议的。
原推 ↗英文原文
I messed up on my $SSYS thesis regarding prototyping/ramp-up, so I wanted a robotics play directly tethered to the amount of robots produced with high % revenue for each robot. This is speculation but an est. 3-8% ~BOM value for each Tesla Optimus is incredible for $VPG given how small they are.
-
VPG被低估机器人拐点，营收增长潜力大，机构或仅时机过早。
许多人基于同比(Y/Y)营收对 $VPG 进行建模，但低估了机器人领域的拐点。从当前水平实现25亿至40亿美元的营收增长，提供了相当高的上行空间和极佳的机器人领域增长敞口。但这只股票已被机构广泛熟知，我认为Citron Research等机构可能只是时机把握有误，因为他们提前了数月甚至数年。
原推 ↗英文原文
A lot of people model $VPG based on Y/Y revenue, but underestimate inflection point for robotics. $2.5-$4B revenue ramp from current levels presents pretty high upside and great exposure to robotics ramp. But it's already a pretty well known stock by institutions, I think Citron and others likely just got timing off since they were months or years ahead of time.
-
作者解释为何逆势做多VPG以提前布局机器人领域。
@alecolace 如果你对 $VPG 持看跌观点，那确实合理！无人机领域确实比机器人领域有更多的催化剂，但我个人想通过 $VPG 提前布局机器人领域的增长。再次强调，这只是我个人的观点，我不指望很多人会同意。
原推 ↗英文原文
@alecolace That's fair if you're bearish on $VPG! Drone sector has a lot more catalysts than robotics for sure, but thought I'd personally frontrun the robotics ramp with $VPG. Again these are just my own personal opinions, I don't expect a lot of people to agree.
-
建仓$VPG，看好其作为$TSLA Optimus核心供应商的高BOM占比及不对称收益。
我已建立 $VPG（市值5.73亿美元）的头寸。 这是我未来在机器人领域的主要敞口，与 $TSLA Optimus 紧密挂钩。 市场完全忽视了这一机器人板块的投资机会： 对于每一台部署的特斯拉 Optimus，$VPG 很可能占据极高的物料清单(BOM)份额。 VPG 可能是特斯拉 Optimus 量产爬坡的主要供应商，这已是公开的秘密。 这一发现最早由 Citron Research 提出（我不居功）。 2025年4月，Citron Research 发布报告，称 VPG 为“隐藏的特斯拉 Optimus 概念股”。 他们指出，VPG 在2023年11月宣布与一家人形机器人开发商达成“重大设计胜利”，就在特斯拉于2023年12月发布 Optimus Gen 2 之前。 Citron：“证据确凿：VPG 不仅向特斯拉 Optimus 供货，还预计从此次扩产中获得巨额收入，但由于保密协议，这部分收入目前对市场不可见。” 我在2025/2026年后期与多家卖方/买方分析师交叉验证了关于 VPG 的信息： 许多来自 Signia Capital 的人士提到 $VPG：“最显著的应用将是特斯拉的 Optimus 机器人，该机器人于2022年原型化，目标在2026年投产”。 然而，由于2023-2025年原型机阶段 Optimus 及其他机器人的量产爬坡并不存在，这一点被完全遗忘了。 然而，鉴于彭博社报道 OpenAI 上周推动机器人领域发展： 我预计机器人行业今年将触及拐点。 该公司基本面已经非常扎实： - 营收7970万美元（同比增长5.3%，但预计因机器人行业而指数级增长） - 毛利率40.5% - 净现金约6500万美元（现金8600万，债务2000万） $VPG 在块状金属箔(Bulk Metal Foil)材料科学/专利方面拥有护城河，引入了 Z-Foil 技术，并实现了垂直整合。虽然我不能说完全理解所有细节，但这正是 $TSLA 与 Vishay 合作进行 Optimus 迭代原型开发和规模化的原因。 关于 BOM： 有一些 BOM 估算如下： 腿部/运动系统：约21,300美元（占成本38%）：集中在高扭矩执行器。 核心稳定性：约15,600美元（28%）：结构性躯干和肩部机构。 灵巧手：约9,500美元（17%）：执行器和 VPG 式传感器。 计算/AI：约2,100美元（4%）：双 FSD 芯片和8摄像头阵列。 但总体而言，我们可以估算每台机器人的价值中约有3-8%归 $VPG 所有，因为 Shoshani 明确表示 VPG 预计每台机器人在ERs中能获得500至1,200美元的收入。 Elon 喜欢吹嘘大数字，但如果按字面意思理解“德州超级工厂年产1000万台的目标” 1000万台机器人/年 × 750美元/台 = VPG 年营收75亿美元。 考虑到 $VPG 是一家目前处于机器人供应链深处的5.74亿美元小市值公司，鉴于其不对称的上行空间，我建立了多头头寸： - 与 $TSLA Optimus 供应链的高度相关性概率高 - 每台部署机器人的 BOM 占比高 - 资产负债表非常干净，这很罕见。 请自行研究，这只是我建立多头的个人思考过程。
原推 ↗英文原文
I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m). This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus. Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play: For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for each. It's a pretty open secret by now that VPG is likely a main supplier for Tesla Optimus Ramp. This was first discovered by Citron Research (not taking credit for this). In April 2025, Citron Research published a report calling VPG the "Hidden Tesla Optimus Play." They pointed out that VPG announced a "major design win" with a humanoid developer in November 2023, right before Tesla revealed the Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023. Citron: "The evidence is conclusive: VPG is not only supplying Tesla Optimus but expects substantial revenues from this ramp-up, revenue currently invisible to the market due to confidentiality" I've cross-checked with recent Sellside/Buyside analysts much later in 2025/2026 regarding VPG: Many from Signia Capital mention for $VPG: "The most notable application would be Tesla’s Optimus robot, which was prototyped in 2022 and is targeting production in 2026". However, this was completely forgotten given robotics ramp from Optimus and others were nonexistent through 2023-2025 for the prototyping phase. However, given OpenAI's push to robotics last week per Bloomberg: I expect robotics to hit the inflection point this year. This company is extremely solid fundamentally already: - $79.7 Million Revenue (up 5.3% Y/Y but this should ramp up exponentially due to robotics sector) - 40.5% Gross Margins - ~$65 Million Net Cash ($86m Cash, $20m Debt) $VPG has a material science/patent moat for Bulk Metal Foil, introduced Z-Foil technology, and is vertically integrated. Can't say I understand it all, but it's the reason why $TSLA has been prototyping and scaling their Optimus iterations with Vishay. As for BOM: There are BOM estimates like: Legs/Locomotion: ~$21,300 (38% of cost): concentrated in high-torque actuators. Core Stability: ~$15,600 (28%): structural torso and shoulder mechanisms. Dexterous Hands: ~$9,500 (17%): Actuators and VPG-style sensors. Compute/AI: ~$2,100 (4%): Dual FSD chips and 8-camera array. But generally, we can estimate 3-8% of each robots value is est. $VPG since Shoshani explicitly stated that VPG expects to capture between $500 and $1,200 in revenue per robot in ERs. Elon likes to claim big numbers, but if you take it at face value "10-million-unit annual target at Giga Texas" 10M robots/year × $750/robot = $7.5 Billion in annual revenue for VPG. Considering $VPG is a small $574M company deep in the robotics supply chain right now, I entered long positions given the asymmetrical upside - of high probability correlation to $TSLA Optimus supply chains - high BOM of each robot deployed. - very clean balance sheet, which is rare. Please do your own research, this is my own personal thought process of why I entered this long.