$VPG
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博主指出成本数据基于高价ASP而非量产BOM，认为该分析缺乏参考价值。
@Traderissimo 所以这是最终售价的成本，而非物料清单(BOM)成本。他们还使用了$134K的平均售价(ASP)，而非量产爬坡后低于$20K的成本。正如$VPG所见，传感器单价从$750降至大规模量产时的$150。因此很多计算都变了，我觉得这个成本结构没什么帮助。
英文原文
@Traderissimo So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs. As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production. So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful
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我确实认为绿的谐波(688017)是中国机器人行业里突出的零部件龙头。 我研究过很多其他机器人标的和 $TSLA Optimus 供应商，但绿的谐波非常独特。 和那些做低利润率组装、低价值零部件、或更容易被设计替换的公司相比，它不一样。 高盛研究等西方机构多次提到绿的谐波： -> 它是一家具有高技术壁垒的公司，例如谐波减速器。 -> 并且很可能在每台人形机器人里捕获高价值零部件成本，比如行星滚柱丝杠。 简单说，绿的谐波覆盖了： 1. 多种不同零部件，且进入壁垒高 2. 如果把这些部件合在一起，占每台人形机器人较高的物料清单(BOM)价值 3. 低成本大规模量产能力 这些都对应每一台被制造出来的人形机器人。 请在做决定前自己研究这个主题；但从长期看，如果你相信人形机器人行业会增长，我认为绿的谐波(688017)非常有吸引力。 主要风险来自其他新兴中国公司在不同单项零部件上抢占市场份额。 另一个风险是量产后利润率随时间下降，就像 $VPG 的传感器从早期预生产阶段的750美元降到150美元。 但总体而言，我不认为中国以外的公司，比如 Harmonic Drive(6324)，能在大规模生产上实现同样成本。这也是为什么 $TSLA Optimus 正在中国建立广泛供应链。 所以我们很可能看到供应链分化：一边是来自中国供应链、成本约1.5万到2万美元的低成本量产人形机器人；另一边是来自西方供应链、成本更高的人形机器人。 如果你只看当前市盈率并说它很高，我认为很大一部分误解来自没有看未来增长。 目前还没有真正大规模量产。智元机器人(AGIbot)最近在3月实现了1万台产量。 但未来3-5年，如果按照埃隆·马斯克和其他人的预测，每年会生产数百万台人形机器人，那么人形/机器人行业的总可寻址市场(TAM)会非常大。 所以我的预期是，回头看绿的谐波当前106.5亿美元市值，相对于它在整体机器人市场里可能捕获的份额，会显得非常小。 因此我不认为这样的投资论点应该用短期时间框架来衡量，也不认为人们应该主动交易这类名字。 它更像是一个长期投资想法：这家公司可能在未来几年指数级增长的整体人形机器人市场中，捕获相当重要的一部分。
英文原文
I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique. Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk. Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times: -> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear). -> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced. In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover: 1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry 2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together 3. Mass production capability at low cost. For each humanoid made. Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling. Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components. As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors. But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China. So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains. Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth: Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March. But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year. So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market. So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these). Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.
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众包寻找短期十倍高信念股票。
好了大家，距离上一次已经有一段时间了。 从 $VPG 到 $ASPI，很多名字都已经涨疯了。 所以来众包一份新清单： 你认为短时间内能涨10倍、信念最高的股票代码是什么，为什么？
英文原文
Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one. And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked. So crowdsourcing a new list: What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why? https://t.co/Rt21dTMtDK
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VPG自其论点后涨三倍，但承认ASP估计过高且有TSLA设计替换风险。
好吧，$VPG 自我发布 thesis 以来最终涨了三倍。 我原始 thesis 里的 ASP 搞错了，量产价格是150美元，而不是管理层引用的约750美元中位数。 而且 $TSLA 设计替换风险让我降低了集中度。 但无论如何，3倍也不算差。
英文原文
Well $VPG ended up tripling since my thesis post. I got the ASP wrong in my original thesis, was $150 mass production rather than ~$750 midpoint quoted by management. And $TSLA design out risk made me cut concentration. But 3x regardless not too shabby. https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg
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Sivers通过Aeva成为Boston Dynamics的激光供应商，CPO技术是物理AI开发核心
有趣的事实：同一家公司经常出现在不同的供应链中。一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为上游激光供应商，通过以下路径供应给 Boston Dynamics：Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW（CW DFB 激光器）-> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics。我个人最初其实是因为4D AI而看好Aeva的。偶然发现Sivers是他们4D FMCW激光雷达的高置信度激光供应商。所以你实际上可以在光子学领域获得机器人曝光，而用于超大规模数据中心AI的同款CW激光器也在使用。虽然近期收入增长可能是$SIVE通过Aeva为$NVDA自动驾驶汽车相关架构供应激光器批量增长。人形机器人可能要到2028年？你总能得到更多间接曝光，比如MU的内存或$INTC的边缘CPU，但当然也有更直接的曝光方式。我觉得之前已经覆盖过很多名字了，比如$VPG或Harmonic Drive。但可笑的是，CPO玩家如$SIVE其实是前沿物理AI开发的核心部分。
英文原文
Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.
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列出2026下半年四大做多主题：CPO、800VDC功率半导体、物理AI机器人、玻璃基板/先进封装。
如果你想找多头想法，2026年下半年有四个关键主题： 1. CPO，我最喜欢的主题，没有之一。我无法强调市场对它有多误解。 我在硅谷聊过的每个人现在都在私下资助光学初创公司，这是未来的重大信号。 2. 800VDC 功率半导体。我认为其他分析师某种程度上说服了我。 我曾小仓位持有 $NVTS，但令我惊讶的是它几乎翻倍了。进一步研究后，这在“哪些玩家变重要”上是一次相当剧烈的转变。 3. 物理 AI、人形机器人/机器人。你知道 $VPG 基本涨了三倍，我一直在找其他可做多玩家。 最有意思的下游多在私营部门，然后零部件主要在中国/日本。 4. 也许玻璃基板/先进封装仍然有机会，例如 $LPK。由于很多存储玩家最近已经重估，存储在列表中往后排了，不过小众 HBM4 玩家仍有很多机会。
英文原文
Four critical themes for h2 2026 if you want long ideas: 1. CPO, #1 #1 #1 #1 favorite theme. I cannot stress how much markets misunderstand this. Everyone I've talked in SV are privately funding optical startups right now and it's a big signal of what's to come. 2. 800 VDC power semis. I think other analysts kinda convinced me on this. I was in $NVTS for a tiny bit, low concentration. But this almost doubled to my surprise. But after doing more research, it's a pretty seismic shift in terms of what players become important 3. Physical AI Humanoids/Robotics. As you know $VPG basically tripled, and there's a lot of other players I've been trying to find longs on. Most downstream of interest are private sector... Then components are mainly in China/Japan. 4. Maybe Glass Substrate / advanced packaging stuff still eg. $LPK. Memory got pushed down on the list given how much players have re-rated recently, lot of opportunity still with niche hbm4 players.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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众包人形机器人投资标的清单，汇总出现频率最高的六只股票。
这是人形机器人敞口众包列表： - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - 北京极智嘉 - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (尚未上市) - $LSCC - 亿sunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - 禾赛科技 (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT 凭记忆： Harmonic Drive、$OUST、$BOT、$VPG、$MBLY和Ubtech出现频率最高。 接下来会对这些提及最多的标的开始做尽职调查。
英文原文
Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list: - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - Beijing Geekplus - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (not public yet) - $LSCC - Esunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - Hesai (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT Off the top of my head: Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most. Will start doing DD into mentions.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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周 1 ETF 组合大涨，验证了精选跟随的回报。
Serenity 粉丝精选的“超球形 10 倍 ETF”表现。 第 1 周：+12.39% $AEHR：+56.72%（$45.08 -> $70.65） $AAOI：+39.63%（$108.86 -> $152.00） $SIVE：+35.35%（9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK） $ENAFF：+31.58%（$1.71 -> $2.25） $AL2SI：+25.44%（28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR） $ENVX：+21.30%（$5.07 -> $6.15） $BZAI：+18.99%（$1.79 -> $2.13） $POET：+16.04%（$6.11 -> $7.09） $WATT：+14.81%（$15.8 -> $18.14） $HGRAF：+14.48%（$4.49 -> $5.14） $VLN：+13.79%（$1.16 -> $1.32） $LPK.DE：+13.20%（6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR） $FLY：+13.09%（$33.16 -> $37.50） $VPG：+11.63%（$44.7 -> $49.90） $PLAB：+9.86%（$40.87 -> $44.90） $TRT：+8.33%（$5.88 -> $6.37） $EQR.AX：+7.94%（.315 AUD -> .34 AUD） $LASR：+7.92%（$60.7 -> $65.51） $ASPI：+6.67%（$4.2 -> $4.48） $P4O.DE：+5.69%（6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR） $EOS.AX：+3.11%（$9.00 -> $9.28） $ADUR：-0.29%（$10.37 -> $10.34） $MITK：-2.52%（$13.9 -> $13.55） $ALCJ：-3.41%（2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR） $TMC：-5.01%（$4.59 -> $4.36） $QURE：-9.94%（$17.21 -> $15.50） $EONR：-20.00%（$.9 -> $.72） Top 3: 1. $AEHR：+56.72% 2. $AAOI：+39.63% 3. $SIVE：+35.35% 值得一提的是 $ENAFF，回报 31.58%。 加权平均是 12.39%。 老实说还不错，大家只用一周就跑赢了年初到现在的指数回报。
英文原文
Serenity's Follower Picked Hyperbolic 10x ETF Performance. Week 1: +12.39% $AEHR: +56.72% ($45.08 -> $70.65) $AAOI: +39.63% ($108.86 -> $152.00) $SIVE: +35.35% (9.9 SEK -> 13.4 SEK) $ENAFF: +31.58% ($1.71 -> $2.25) $AL2SI: +25.44% (28.70 EUR -> 36 EUR) $ENVX: +21.30% ($5.07 -> $6.15) $BZAI: +18.99% ($1.79 -> $2.13) $POET: +16.04% ($6.11 -> $7.09) $WATT: +14.81% ($15.8 -> $18.14) $HGRAF: +14.48% ($4.49 -> $5.14) $VLN: +13.79% ($1.16 -> $1.32) $LPK.DE: +13.20% (6.59 EUR -> 7.46 EUR) $FLY: +13.09% ($33.16 -> $37.50) $VPG: +11.63% ($44.7 -> $49.90) $PLAB: +9.86% ($40.87 -> $44.90) $TRT: +8.33% ($5.88 -> $6.37) $EQR.AX: +7.94% (.315 AUD -> .34 AUD) $LASR: +7.92% ($60.7 -> $65.51) $ASPI: +6.67% ($4.2 -> $4.48) $P4O.DE: +5.69% (6.85 EUR -> 7.24 EUR) $EOS.AX: +3.11% ($9.00-> $9.28) $ADUR: -0.29% ($10.37 -> $10.34) $MITK: -2.52% ($13.9 -> $13.55) $ALCJ: -3.41% (2.05 EUR -> 1.98 EUR) $TMC: -5.01% ($4.59 -> $4.36) $QURE: -9.94% ($17.21 -> $15.50) $EONR: -20.00% ($.9 -> $.72) Top 3: 1. $AEHR: +56.72% 2. $AAOI: +39.63% 3. $SIVE: +35.35% Honorable mention $ENAFF with a 31.58% return. Weighted average was 12.39%. Honestly not bad everyone, you beat year index returns in just 1 week.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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列出一篮子“粉丝最爱”的高波动候选 ETF 组合。
Serenity 粉丝最爱的股票：抛物线增长 ETF。 有史以来最令人期待的 ETF： $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 欧元 $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - 0.315 澳元 $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 欧元 $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 欧元 $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 我没听说过这里面三分之一的名字，但如果我的关注者们对某只票有很高的 conviction，觉得它能 10 倍…… 那我也是。
英文原文
Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF: The most anticipated ETF of all time: $TRT - $5.88 $HGRAF - $4.49 $SIVE - 9.9 SEK $QURE - $17.21 $AEHR - $45.08 $ENVX - $5.07 $ASPI - $4.2 $EONR - $11.79 $LPK.DE - 6.59 EUR $MITK - $13.9 $EQR.AX - .315 AUD $WATT - $15.8 $VLN - $1.16 $BZAI - $1.79 $TMC - $4.59 $ALCJ - $74.57 $POET - $6.11 $AAOI - $108.86 $ADUR - $10.37 $P4O.DE - 6.85 EUR $PLAB - $40.87 $FLY - $33.16 $LASR - $60.7 $AL2SI - 28.70 EUR $ENAFF - $1.71 $VPG - $44.7 $EOS.AX - $9.00 I haven't heard of 1/3rd of these names, but if my followers have high conviction that their name will 10x... So do I.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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持有 VPG 作为 TSLA Optimus 传感器供给的一部分，但不确定是否会被中国伙伴替代。
@throughthetape 我持有 $VPG，因为这曾经是我做 Tesla Optimus 的多头标的。 不过，我也不能 100% 确定它们是不是已经被中国合作伙伴在量产放大时设计绕开了…… 但这段话看起来又像是它们仍然是关键供应商？真的很难完全确定。
英文原文
@throughthetape I have a position in $VPG since this was my $TSLA Optimus long. But, I'm not 100% sure if they got designed out or not by Chinese partners for mass production ramp... However, this statement makes it sound like they're still a critical supplier? Really hard to know for sure.
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把 VPG 视作 Tesla Optimus 传感器供应链的一环，并引用机器人量产目标。
我很久没再聊 $VPG 了。 这曾经是我看 Tesla Optimus 放量的一个传感器标的。 本周 Sidoti 大会上有个非常重要的线索： “到 2026 年底前，每周有可能扩产到几百台机器人。” 这听起来是不是很像 Optimus？ 如果按他们 CEO 那句“每台机器人 500 到 1200 美元”的说法来看：也不差。 但当然，很多机器人供应链在真正的人形机器人大规模拐点出现之前，基本都还是死钱。 也许 Unitree IPO 会让机器人供应链稍微活跃起来。
英文原文
Been awhile since I covered $VPG. This was a sensor play for $TSLA Optimus Ramp. Very important breadcrumb this week at the Sidoti Conference: "Potential to scale to hundreds of robots per week by the end of 2026." Kinda sounds aligned with Optimus? No? If we go off their CEO "$500-$1.2k per robot" statement: Not too shabby. But of course, a lot of robotic supply chains are kind of dead money until the actual inflection point humanoids at scale hits. Maybe Unitree IPO sparks some life into robotic supply chains soon?
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博主提出三种情景下的减仓应对策略：TSLA换供应商则降Optimus风险，和平时期则退国防股，加密熊市则卖HOOD
除非发生重大变化。如果$TSLA转而使用中国供应商而不是$VPG进行大规模生产，那么我关于Optimus物料清单(BOM)的论点会略微改变，我就会降低风险。如果美国突然进入和平时期、战争结束，那么最好退出国防相关股票。如果加密货币最终崩溃，可能意味着$HOOD的增长周期接近尾声，可以考虑在$100以上时退出。
英文原文
Unless there’s material changes. If $TSLA comes in and uses Chinese suppliers instead of $VPG for mass production, then my thesis on Optimus BOM slightly breaks and I’ll derisk. If US suddenly enters peacetime and there’s no War anymore, it’s better to exit defense related stocks. If crypto ends up crashing it’s probably near the end of the growth cycle for $HOOD and it’s fine to exit $100+.
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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博主说明发帖时机与原则：不鼓励跟单，愿分享想法让粉丝独立判断
当我的投资论点可能发生变化时我会发帖，比如 $SNAP 的股权激励(SBC)。或者当有重大新闻时发帖，比如 $VPG 可能进行大规模生产，当时有特斯拉签约数百家中国供应商的消息。然而，我不想让人跟单交易或在我卖出时同步卖出。我更愿意分享我的想法和风险提示。然后让人们得出自己的结论。但如果人们在随机帖子中直接问我，我通常会说是否已减仓或退出了仓位。只是X平台不会把所有帖子都展示给粉丝，所以我确信很多人错过了很多更新。
英文原文
I post when my thesis might have changed such as $SNAP SBC. Or with possibly $VPG with mass production, when there was news on Tesla contracting hundreds of Chinese suppliers. However, I don’t want people to copy trade or sell at the same time I do. I’d rather post my thoughts, and risk disclosures. Then let people come to their own conclusions. But if people ask directly in random posts, I often say if I de-risked or exited my position. It’s just that X doesn’t show all my posts to followers, so I’m sure people missed a ton of updates.
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强调 thesis 会随催化剂变化而更新，近期对战争股、无人机和部分瓶颈股重新转多。
感谢你指出这一点。如果你有认真看过我的帖子，你就会发现我的 thesis 其实是会变的。 市场会随着每次财报和新的催化剂（比如宏观）不断更新。 像 $SNAP 这种，如果 SBC 没有明显下降，我就会转空并退出仓位。 但如果 gcloud opex + 变现能力真的能改变局面，Evan 又把 SBC 砍下来，那它也可能被重新定价。 $VPG 我之前发过关于 Optimus BOM 改用中国供应商做量产的新闻。 最近的冲突之后，我其实又重新看多战争股、无人机公司，以及 $LPTH。 $OSS 我们也看到它涨了差不多 80%？ $VLN 我仍然觉得它被低估，只是现在价格基本和我发帖时差不多。 大家老是截图我去年看多 $IREN 的帖子，可如果它们又开一个 60 亿美元 ATM，我也能立刻转空。 很多人误以为“我在某个时间点看多”，就等于我跟一只股票结婚了；但其实只要催化剂变了，我的看法就会变。 不过话说回来，我还是喜欢像 $LPTH 和 $OSS 这样的东西，德国锗瓶颈和边缘计算的逻辑并没有变。 和 $NBIS 一样，有些东西就是需要时间去兑现。
英文原文
Appreciate you calling me out on that. If you ever read my posts, my thesis can change. Markets are constantly updating every earnings with new catalysts such as macro. For things like $SNAP I flipped bearish when SBC didn’t go down materially and exited my positions. But gcloud opex + monetization can materially flip it if Evan cuts SBC. $VPG i published news on Optimus BOM switching to Chinese suppliers for production. I’m actually bullish on war stocks again, drone companies, and $LPTH again due to recent conflicts. That was following the Venezuela conflicts. $OSS is up like 80%? $VLN I still think it’s undervalued but it’s around the same price I posted. People are still screenshotting me saying I’m bullish on $IREN from last year but if they launch a $6 billion ATM, I can turn bearish. Think people mistake being bullish in one point in time to married to a stock, when things materially change based on catalysts. That being said I still like things like $LPTH and $OSS, nothings changed about germanium bottlenecks or edge computing. And like $NBIS sometimes they need time to play out.
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VPG单月获百万美元订单，体量达此前总和三分之一，前景看涨。
@savelikameisha 谢谢，我在电话会议期间睡着了 lol。如果那是后续订单，$VPG 在 1 个月内获得 $1M 的订单实际上是非常看涨的。直到 10 月，他们的总订单流为 $3.6M，而基本上他们在 1 个月内就获得了其中 1/3 的体量。
英文原文
@savelikameisha Thanks, I fell asleep during the call lol. $1M order in 1 month is actually really bullish for $VPG if that’s a follow-on order. Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until Oct and they got 1/3rd that volume in 1 month basically
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VPG获Optimus大额订单，看好其未来量产预期。
对于 $VPG 来说，这实际上非常有前景：2026年1月为100万美元，这是其后续订单（可能每个机器人500美元，即2000台）。根据你们的数据，直到10月他们的总订单流为360万美元，而单月就达到了其总量的1/3.6。鉴于我们现在知道 Optimus 将在今年晚些时候加速量产，我对未来的预测比过去的预测更感兴趣。
英文原文
For $VPG that’s actually really promising it’s $1m for January 2026 and that’s its follow up (maybe $500/humanoid, so 2K units) Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until October and they got 1/3.6th their volume in one month from your numbers I’d be more curious about future projections rather than previous ones since now we know Optimus is ramping up later in the year.
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VPG财报数据次要，人形机器人订单及冻结风险才是关键。
@mholz315 是的，每股收益(ER)数据只是噪音，最重要的是$VPG CEO在电话会议中提到的关于那3780万美元人形机器人订单及潜在冻结的情况。
英文原文
@mholz315 Yeah the ER figures are just noise, most important thing is what the $VPG CEO mentions during the call regarding humanoid orders of that $37.8M and potential freezes.
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3700万超预期利好产能爬坡，待VPG会议澄清。
@mholz315 那个3700万美元的数字是多方面的，不仅仅是像Optimus这样的人形机器人。但由于这是一个强劲的超预期表现，这对产能爬坡(ramp)是一个积极的信号。 正如你提到的，现在最重要的是在$VPG电话会议上得到澄清。
英文原文
@mholz315 That $37M figure is multifaceted, it's not purely humanoids like Optimus. But it's a positive tell for ramp since it was a strong beat. As you mentioned, most important thing is clarification on the $VPG call now.
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$VPG财报营收超预期但EPS不及预期，人形机器人业务强劲增长被市场误读。
$VPG 发布了财报。简而言之： 营收：8060万美元 vs. 共识预期：约7810万美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(EPS)：0.07美元 vs. 共识预期：约0.20-0.21美元（不及预期） 毛利率：降至36.8%（去年同期为38.2%）——主要受外汇等一次性因素影响。 值得关注点： 人形机器人板块——其2025全年目标是从“战略增长计划”（机器人、先进传感器）中预订3000万美元订单。 实际：3780万美元——这一预测被大幅超越，超出近800万美元。 其他产品有很多噪音，市场主要应关注人形机器人的增长，看起来正在加速。 当然，这3780万美元的数据是多方面的。 没什么太惊人的，但简而言之： 传统业务（钢铁、称重等）：平均在增长 新业务（人形机器人）：正在快速增长 市场对此反应错误，因为$VPG未来最看涨的板块是人形机器人，且看起来正在加速。 除此之外，虽然不算爆发式增长，但对于强劲的机器人板块超预期是积极的，我将等待电话会议以获取与人形机器人相关的问题解答。
英文原文
$VPG reported earnings. TLDR: Revenue: $80.6 Million vs. Consensus: ~$78.1 Million (BEAT) Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs. Consensus: ~$0.20 - $0.21 (MISS) Gross Margin: Fell to 36.8% (down from 38.2% a year ago) - mainly one off like FX. What to look out for: Humanoid section - Their goal for the full year 2025 was to book $30 million in orders from "Strategic Growth Initiatives" (Robots, Advanced Sensors). Actual: $37.8 million - They crushed this projection by nearly $8 million. There’s a lot of noise from other products, main thing markets should be looking out for is humanoid growth, which looks to be ramping up. Of course that $37.8M number is multifaceted. Nothing too amazing but tldr: Legacy Business (Steel, weighing, etc.): Is growing on average New Business (humanoids): Is growing rapidly Markets are taking this the wrong way since the most bullish segment going forward for $VPG is humanoids, and it looks to be ramping up. That aside, not exactly a blowout but positive for strong robotics segment beat, will wait for conference call for humanoids related questions.
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展示含杠杆的AI与加密多头组合，强调风险管理避免全仓小盘股。
组合权重是我被问得最多的问题。 以下是我的投资组合构成： 35% 存储超级周期 _ 10% 三星电子 10% 海力士 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% 数字资产敞口 _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% 金融科技/广告 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% 数据中心 - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% 半导体 _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% 光子学 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% 对冲/现金 5% 对冲（例如 $VIX 或 $QQQ 看跌期权，尤其是现在） 10% 小盘股“登月”标的 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH 这使用了轻微杠杆，例如 1.25 倍。 额外杠杆（最高 1.5 倍）： - 波段交易（例如 $GLXY） 我的投资组合看起来与此大致相似，但包含更多随机名称如 $AEHR 或 欣兴电子，且权重不同。 这是做多半导体 + AI 超级周期，并在加密货币中进行复苏交易。如果（谷歌、Meta、微软）削减支出，这将造成打击，但他们刚刚增加了资本支出。 但这只是展示我如何进行风险管理，全仓押注像 $POET 这样的小盘股是非常危险的。
英文原文
Portfolio weightings is my most common question. Here’s what my portfolio looks like: 35% Memory Supercycle _ 10% Samsung Electronics 10% Sk Hynix 10% $MU 5% $SNDK 25% Digital Asset exposure _ 10% $IBIT 5% $COIN 5% $HOOD 2.5% $CRCL 2.5% $SOL 15% Fintech/Advertising 5% $RDDT 5% $ETOR 5% $TTD 15% Datacenter - 10% $NBIS 5% $CRDO 10% Semi _ 5% $INTC 5% $TSM 10% Photonics 5% $LITE 2.5% $AXTI 2.5% $COHR 5% Hedge/Cash 5% Hedge (Eg. $VIX or $QQQ Puts, especially around now) 10% Small Cap Moonshots 2.5% $VPG 2.5% $LPTH 1.5% $VLN 1.5% $AIRO 1% $OSS .5% $DPRO .5% $CPSH This is using slight margin, eg 1.25x. Additional Margin (up to 1.5x): - Swing Trades (eg. $GLXY) My portfolio looks vaguely similar to this, but with more random names like $AEHR or Unimicron and different weightings. This is long semi + AI supercycle, with a recovery trade in Crypto. If (Google, Meta, MSFT) cut spending this would hurt, but they just increased capex spend. But this is just showing how I do risk management, it’s very risky to full send it into micro caps like $POET.
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马斯克指出Optimus三大瓶颈：智能、手部及制造，暗示美韩主导核心部件。
$TSLA Optimus 瓶颈 TLDR - Elon Musk 采访： “人形机器人只有三件难事”： 1. 现实世界智能（例如 Dojo，$NVDA，三星机电） 2. 手部（~ 可能是 $VPG） 3. 规模化制造（~ 浙江华正，宁波拓普，Everwin） 关于手部： Elon 声称 $TSLA Optimus 的人手自由度比其他机器人更多。 特斯拉“设计了定制执行器、齿轮、功率电子、控制、传感器。这方面没有供应链。” Elon 在采访中基本上强调手部是机器人最涉及知识产权且最复杂的部分。Elon 重申特斯拉解决了中国其他人形机器人今天尚未解决的问题。 这使得西方制造商参与这一特定 BOM 部分的可能性略微增加（相比此前报道的中国供应链）。 关于现实世界智能方面： Elon 聚焦于：“惯性测量、GPS 信号、其他数据，将其与视频结合，主要是视频，然后输出控制命令” - 训练 ~ Cortex / Dojo 供应商，$NVDA。 - 视频与视觉：三星机电？ - IMU + GPS：$STM 或博世？ 规模化制造： 正如朝鲜日报报道，身体部分可能来自中国供应链。 从推理来看似乎是： 大脑 + 高端组件 = 美国/韩国 身体是中国（三花，拓普等）。 但再次强调，这并未确认，只是可能的供应链映射。 无论如何，Elon 为投资者指出了人形机器人量产过程中的三个瓶颈投资方向。
英文原文
$TSLA Optimus Bottleneck TLDR - Elon Musk Interview: "There's only three hard things for humanoid robots": 1. Real World Intelligence (eg. Dojo, $NVDA, Samsung Electro-Mechanics) 2. The Hand (~ possibly $VPG) 3. Scale Manufacturing ( ~ Zhejiang Huazheng, Ningbo TuoFu, Everwin) For the hand: Elon claimed that $TSLA Optimus has the more degrees of freedom with a human hand than other robotic humanoid. Tesla "designed custom actuators, gears power electronics, controls, sensors. There is no supply chain for this." Elon basically focused on the hand is the most IP-sensitive and complex part of the robot during the interview. Elon reiterated that Tesla solved issues with the hand that no other humanoids in China have today. This makes things slightly more probable that Western manufacturers are involved (compared to Chinese supply chains from earlier reports), with this part of this specific BOM. For the Real World Intelligence Aspect: Elon focused on: "Inertial measurements, GPS signals, other data, combining that with video, primarily video, and then outputting the control commands" - Training ~ Cortex / Dojo suppliers, $NVDA. - Video & Vision: Samsung Electro-Mechanics? - IMUs + GPS: $STM or Bosch? Scale Manufacturing: Likely Chinese supply chains as reported, by Chosun for the body. From inference looks like: Brain + high-end components = US/Korean Body is Chinese (Sanhua, Tupou, etc). But again, this is not confirmed, just possible supply chain mapping. Regardless, Elon gave investors three bottlenecks to invest in for the humanoid ramp.
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分析$VPG在Optimus供应链中的护城河及被中国供应商替代的风险。
这只是文章的直接引用，我尚未进行深入分析。文中提到了“数百家中国供应商”，因此其他潜在威胁可能包括柯力传感、汉威电子、东华等。 关于 $VPG，我同意，考虑到他们在箔技术方面的护城河，我认为他们被要求提供高端 Optimus 版本。我目前仍持有仓位。 话虽如此，发布风险披露总是好的，以便人们自行研究，因为他们被设计剔除（design out）的可能性并非为零。毕竟 Elon 的目标是 $20K 的 Optimus 实现量产。
英文原文
So that’s just the direct quote from the article, haven’t gone further into analysis. It did mention “hundreds of Chinese suppliers” so other threats may be Keli Sensing, Hanwei Electronics, Donhua, etc. Regarding $VPG, agreed I’d assume they’re required high-end Optimus versions given their moat in their foil tech. And I still have positions. That being said it’s always good to publish risk disclosure so people can do their own research, since the chance they get designed out is nonzero. Elon is targeting $20K Optimus for mass production after all
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特斯拉Optimus或分中美双供应链，高端用VPG，量产用中国。
情况比这更微妙。根据我的研究，为了实现 $20k Optimus 的廉价大规模生产，特斯拉可能正在设计两种不同的型号。大规模生产的型号可能仅采用中国供应链。然而，面向大众市场的中国传感器尚未完全匹配美国高成本、超专业化的精密传感技术。$VPG 可能被用于高端或高精度的 Optimus 版本，例如特斯拉超级工厂级别/工业级版本。因此，首批数千台特斯拉人形机器人可能会使用 $VPG。这仅仅是关于可能的大规模生产/消费级版本，这些版本很可能为了追求最低成本而交由中国制造商生产。这也发出了中国对美国本土机器人供应链构成威胁的信号。
英文原文
It’s a lot more nuanced than that. From my research, for cheap mass production $20k Optimus, it’s possible Tesla is designing two different models. The mass production models may just be Chinese supply chains. However, the mass-market Chinese sensors haven't quite matched US high cost ultra specialized precision sensing. $VPG may be used for high-end or high precision Optimus versions, like the Tesla giga factory grade/industrial versions. So the first thousands of Tesla humanoids may use $VPG. This was just talking about possible mass production/consumer grade versions that likely went to China manufacturers for the lowest cost possible. This also signals the threat China has on Made in America robotics supply chains.
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确认$VPG与Optimus关联及机构长期看好逻辑
@kacper_kalinski 是的，抱歉，我应该补充说“极有可能”。$VPG 与 Optimus 的关联是由 Citron 发现的。最近我也通过几份提及因 Optimus 而长期看好 $VPG 的机构报告/通讯进行了交叉验证。https://t.co/1THByp4zKP
英文原文
@kacper_kalinski Yes sorry I should have added highly likely. $VPG link to Optimus was found by Citron. And cross checked that with a few institutional reports/newsletters recently that mentioned long $VPG because of Optimus. https://t.co/1THByp4zKP