$6324
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
看好绿的谐波作为中国机器人高壁垒部件龙头。
我确实认为绿的谐波(688017)是中国机器人行业里突出的零部件龙头。 我研究过很多其他机器人标的和 $TSLA Optimus 供应商，但绿的谐波非常独特。 和那些做低利润率组装、低价值零部件、或更容易被设计替换的公司相比，它不一样。 高盛研究等西方机构多次提到绿的谐波： -> 它是一家具有高技术壁垒的公司，例如谐波减速器。 -> 并且很可能在每台人形机器人里捕获高价值零部件成本，比如行星滚柱丝杠。 简单说，绿的谐波覆盖了： 1. 多种不同零部件，且进入壁垒高 2. 如果把这些部件合在一起，占每台人形机器人较高的物料清单(BOM)价值 3. 低成本大规模量产能力 这些都对应每一台被制造出来的人形机器人。 请在做决定前自己研究这个主题；但从长期看，如果你相信人形机器人行业会增长，我认为绿的谐波(688017)非常有吸引力。 主要风险来自其他新兴中国公司在不同单项零部件上抢占市场份额。 另一个风险是量产后利润率随时间下降，就像 $VPG 的传感器从早期预生产阶段的750美元降到150美元。 但总体而言，我不认为中国以外的公司，比如 Harmonic Drive(6324)，能在大规模生产上实现同样成本。这也是为什么 $TSLA Optimus 正在中国建立广泛供应链。 所以我们很可能看到供应链分化：一边是来自中国供应链、成本约1.5万到2万美元的低成本量产人形机器人；另一边是来自西方供应链、成本更高的人形机器人。 如果你只看当前市盈率并说它很高，我认为很大一部分误解来自没有看未来增长。 目前还没有真正大规模量产。智元机器人(AGIbot)最近在3月实现了1万台产量。 但未来3-5年，如果按照埃隆·马斯克和其他人的预测，每年会生产数百万台人形机器人，那么人形/机器人行业的总可寻址市场(TAM)会非常大。 所以我的预期是，回头看绿的谐波当前106.5亿美元市值，相对于它在整体机器人市场里可能捕获的份额，会显得非常小。 因此我不认为这样的投资论点应该用短期时间框架来衡量，也不认为人们应该主动交易这类名字。 它更像是一个长期投资想法：这家公司可能在未来几年指数级增长的整体人形机器人市场中，捕获相当重要的一部分。
原推 ↗英文原文
I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique. Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk. Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times: -> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear). -> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced. In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover: 1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry 2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together 3. Mass production capability at low cost. For each humanoid made. Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling. Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components. As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors. But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China. So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains. Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth: Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March. But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year. So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market. So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these). Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.
-
日文：称90%研究在浴室完成，正在日本研究Harmonic Drive。
我90%的研究都是在浴室里做的，所以我才叫它“shower thoughts（洗澡时的灵感）”。 我在日本对 Harmonic Drive（6324）的研究进展顺利。 结论是，温泉和大肥金枪鱼都是10分满分。
原推 ↗英文原文
リサーチの90%はお風呂の中でやってるから、「シャワーソート（シャワー中のひらめき）」って言ってるんだよね。 日本でのハーモニック・ドライブ（6324）のリサーチは順調に進んでるよ。 結論として、温泉と大トロは10点満点中10点だね。 https://t.co/eSce82erlP
-
只为现场调研 Harmonic Drive 和 Towa 来日本
我来日本只为了对 Harmonic Drive（6324）和 Towa（6315）做第一手尽调。 不太确定其他人晚上都在干什么…… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
原推 ↗英文原文
I only came to Japan to do first person DD on Harmonic Drive (6324) and Towa (6315). Not sure what everyone else is doing in the evenings there… https://t.co/fnSxJlZHVe
-
看好Harmonic Drive，但更倾向用资本支持西方供应链而非中国。
我确实看好 Harmonic Drive (6324) 作为西方谐波减速器领域的领导者，估值约 42 亿美元。在机器人/人形机器人的物料清单价值中占非常大比重。我实际上更看好 Leader Drive（因为大规模生产更便宜，覆盖更多零件）。也许三花(Sanhua)会是 $TSLA Optimus 的供应商。但用我的资本，我更偏好支持西方供应链而非中国供应链。这不仅仅是赚市场的钱，还关乎你想达成什么目标（帮助推进美国供应链和机器人行业领导者）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I do like Harmonic Drive (6324) as the Western Leader (eg. harmonic reduction gear) at ~$4.2B MC. Very large part of robotics/humanoid BOM value. I actually like Leader Drive more (since it's cheaper for mass production, covers more parts). And maybe Sanhua for $TSLA Optimus. But prefer to advance Western supply chains with my capital over ones in China. It's not just profiting off markets, but what you want to get accomplished as well (helping advance US supply chains and Robotics leaders).
-
看好 Harmonic Drive 的人形机器人敞口
我觉得 Harmonic Drive（6324）是 GS research report 里列出来的人形机器人敞口里比较好的一个，估值大约 40 亿美元。 我个人也买了一些，作为敞口。 中国竞争对手也许会被用于大规模生产。 但我个人更偏好投资西方供应链，并把它们扶起来。
原推 ↗英文原文
Imo harmonic drive (6324) one of the better humanoid exposure names at $4B valuation listed in GS research report. Personally I picked some up for exposure. Chinese competitors might be used for mass production. But personal preference in investing in Western supply chains + build them up.