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Waymo长期将凭借成本优势挤压Uber/Lyft生存空间。
@OtsukimiOtsu 感觉你在旧金山看到的每两辆车里就有一辆是 Waymo。短期到中期，我认为这对 $UBER 和 $LYFT 的影响微乎其微。长期来看，除非他们采取行动，否则他们在美国市场会被“做熟”（意指被彻底击败/淘汰）。因为自动驾驶车辆可以大幅压缩人工网约车的成本/利润率。如果 Waymo 推出 Uber Eats 的竞争对手，机器人技术也可以压缩配送成本。就像人们比较 Uber/Lyft 的乘车费用一样，人们关心的是其中最低的成本，方向上 Waymo/$TSLA 可能会在那里胜出。
英文原文
@OtsukimiOtsu Feels like every other car you see in SF is a Waymo. Short-medium term I see it as negligible impact to $UBER and $LYFT. Long term I see them cooked in US markets unless they act… Since autonomous vehicles can compress cost/margins of human ride shares by a lot. Then robotics can compress cost of delivery if Waymo launches a competitor to Uber Eats. Just like how people compare uber/lyft costs before rides, what people care about is lowest cost out of the bunch, and directionally Waymo/$TSLA would likely win there
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马斯克极度看好人形机器人，特斯拉正从零构建新供应链，利好上游供应商。
以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记： 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1，马斯克就说过：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示： “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同，还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此，除了已知的供应商外，寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片，看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台，Giga Texas 是 1000 万台，所以从规模上看，$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提，马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU，鉴于他的声明，可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA)： “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间，并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下，以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”（仅针对结构性内存需求）。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下，后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产（之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD），以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR： 马斯克在判断未来方向（如电动汽车或太空）时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。
英文原文
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
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分析某AI巨头通过融资博弈独立并建立万亿市值的路径
@SpongeQuant 如果没有完成所有这些操作，他不可能建立起一家万亿美元市值的公司。 - 获得埃隆的资助 -> 独立运营惹恼了 $TSLA - 获得 $MSFT 的资助 -> 通过引入其他超大规模云厂商注资稀释微软股份，惹恼了微软 - 获得 $NVDA 的资助 -> 为他们构建...
英文原文
@SpongeQuant He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their
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对比TSLA与CCXI在美产路径及供应链本土化程度的差异。
@NullContex1s 我认为情况很微妙： - $TSLA 拥有最清晰的缩小美中大规模生产差距的路径。但为了实现这一点，大多数组件似乎源自中国？ - $CCXI 目前拥有一座机器人制造工厂(RoboFab)，年产能为 1 万+ 台，且 75%+ 的组件源自美国。 所以
英文原文
@NullContex1s It's nuanced, IMO: - $TSLA has the clearest path to close the gap between US/China in mass production. But to get this done, majority of components seem sourced from China? - $CCXI right now has a RoboFab for 10K+ units/year, and 75%+ of components sourced from the US. So
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看好埃隆推动美国机器人产业重回第一，个人持有CCXI。
@stockshop199020 基本上就是埃隆。- 他和 $SPCX 是美国在太空领域领先的主要原因。- $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。他有时在时间框架上会出错，但方向是对的，所以我很确信他能再次让美国机器人产业重回第一。我个人持有 $CCXI。
英文原文
@stockshop199020 Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI
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中美人形机器人产量差距巨大，呼吁美企追赶及政府补贴。
美国为何如此落后？ 新华社：中国的人形机器人(Humanoid Robots)产量预计今年将突破10万台。 即便摩根士丹利最初对2026年的预测也仅为1.4万台…… 真的需要埃隆的 $TSLA、$CCXI (Agility)、Apptronik 和 Figure 迎头赶上。并且需要更多的美国政府补贴给 https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB
英文原文
How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB
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分享SVRC机器人行业报告，列出Figure AI等8家主要机器人公司。
偶然看到 SVRC Research 4 月发布的一份有趣报告《2026 年机器人行业现状》。 其中列出了： 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. https://t.co/AmCFokQYxl
英文原文
Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April. Which listed: 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. https://t.co/AmCFokQYxl
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博主认为 Agility Robotics 商业化领先，但特斯拉 Optimus 有望一年后主导市场。
恕我直言，就商业化而言，Agility Robotics 绝对是美国目前排名第一的人形机器人玩家。 个人排名： 1. 通过 $CCXI 投资的 Agility Robotics 2. $TSLA Optimus（市值超 1 万亿美元的公司） 3. Figure（2025 年估值 390 亿美元，现在可能更高）。 特斯拉很可能在一年后占据主导地位
英文原文
Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year
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博主做多CCXI并重仓Agility，对比Figure与TSLA估值逻辑。
@blkslymn 我个人做多 $CCXI，并在 Agility Robotics（非财务报告实体）上持有最高集中度。其当前估值约为 49 亿美元。Figure 去年最后一轮融资估值为 390 亿美元，那还是在今年人形机器人/机器人领域兴趣激增之前。此外，$TSLA 1 万亿美元市值的很大一部分也与此相关。
英文原文
@blkslymn I’m personally long $CCXI and have highest concentration in Agility Robotics (NFA). It’s currently around a ~$4.9B valuation. Figure’s last round was $39B last year, and that was before the increasing interest in humanoids/robotics this year. Then a large part of $TSLA $1T+
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探讨人形机器人量产可能催生机器人化妆品新产业链。
我好奇人形机器人是否会引发机器人化妆品领域的新瓶颈/新行业。比如皮肤瓶颈。或者像 Aespa KPOP 机器人改造服务。所以如果 $TSLA Optimus 生产数千万台人形机器人：谁来让它们看起来都很有吸引力？
英文原文
I wonder if humanoids is going to spark a new bottleneck/industry for robot cosmetics. Like a skin bottleneck. Or Aespa KPOP robot makeover as a service. So if $TSLA Optimus makes tens of millions of humanoids: Who’s going to make them all look hot?
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我确实认为绿的谐波(688017)是中国机器人行业里突出的零部件龙头。 我研究过很多其他机器人标的和 $TSLA Optimus 供应商，但绿的谐波非常独特。 和那些做低利润率组装、低价值零部件、或更容易被设计替换的公司相比，它不一样。 高盛研究等西方机构多次提到绿的谐波： -> 它是一家具有高技术壁垒的公司，例如谐波减速器。 -> 并且很可能在每台人形机器人里捕获高价值零部件成本，比如行星滚柱丝杠。 简单说，绿的谐波覆盖了： 1. 多种不同零部件，且进入壁垒高 2. 如果把这些部件合在一起，占每台人形机器人较高的物料清单(BOM)价值 3. 低成本大规模量产能力 这些都对应每一台被制造出来的人形机器人。 请在做决定前自己研究这个主题；但从长期看，如果你相信人形机器人行业会增长，我认为绿的谐波(688017)非常有吸引力。 主要风险来自其他新兴中国公司在不同单项零部件上抢占市场份额。 另一个风险是量产后利润率随时间下降，就像 $VPG 的传感器从早期预生产阶段的750美元降到150美元。 但总体而言，我不认为中国以外的公司，比如 Harmonic Drive(6324)，能在大规模生产上实现同样成本。这也是为什么 $TSLA Optimus 正在中国建立广泛供应链。 所以我们很可能看到供应链分化：一边是来自中国供应链、成本约1.5万到2万美元的低成本量产人形机器人；另一边是来自西方供应链、成本更高的人形机器人。 如果你只看当前市盈率并说它很高，我认为很大一部分误解来自没有看未来增长。 目前还没有真正大规模量产。智元机器人(AGIbot)最近在3月实现了1万台产量。 但未来3-5年，如果按照埃隆·马斯克和其他人的预测，每年会生产数百万台人形机器人，那么人形/机器人行业的总可寻址市场(TAM)会非常大。 所以我的预期是，回头看绿的谐波当前106.5亿美元市值，相对于它在整体机器人市场里可能捕获的份额，会显得非常小。 因此我不认为这样的投资论点应该用短期时间框架来衡量，也不认为人们应该主动交易这类名字。 它更像是一个长期投资想法：这家公司可能在未来几年指数级增长的整体人形机器人市场中，捕获相当重要的一部分。
英文原文
I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique. Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk. Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times: -> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear). -> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced. In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover: 1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry 2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together 3. Mass production capability at low cost. For each humanoid made. Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling. Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components. As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors. But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China. So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains. Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth: Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March. But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year. So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market. So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these). Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.
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VPG自其论点后涨三倍，但承认ASP估计过高且有TSLA设计替换风险。
好吧，$VPG 自我发布 thesis 以来最终涨了三倍。 我原始 thesis 里的 ASP 搞错了，量产价格是150美元，而不是管理层引用的约750美元中位数。 而且 $TSLA 设计替换风险让我降低了集中度。 但无论如何，3倍也不算差。
英文原文
Well $VPG ended up tripling since my thesis post. I got the ASP wrong in my original thesis, was $150 mass production rather than ~$750 midpoint quoted by management. And $TSLA design out risk made me cut concentration. But 3x regardless not too shabby. https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg
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用星战梗概括太空、激光和机器人主题。
我完全相信股市在暗中围绕建造死星和战斗机器人运转： $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = 死星 $LASR / $SIVE = 激光束 $TSLA / Unitree = 战斗机器人
英文原文
I’m fully convinced the Stock Market secretly revolves around building the Death Star and Battle Droids: $RKLB / $SPCX / $PL = Death Star $LASR / $SIVE = Laser Beams $TSLA / Unitree = Battle Droids https://t.co/C53qKjWrS8
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中国掌握人形机器人量产关键牌，美国应加大主权稀土供应链投资。
谁能想到中国在人形机器人量产上握着所有牌？ 如果美国真的看好 $TSLA 或 Figure 机器人计划的未来。 也许是时候开始向主权稀土供应链投入更多资金了。 我们现在做的还不够。
英文原文
Who could have thought China was holding all the cards over humanoid mass production? Really if America sees a future in $TSLA or Figure robotics programs. Maybe it’s time to start pouring more funding sovereign rare earths supply chains. Whatever we’re doing now isnt enough. https://t.co/VQXh9otLMi
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看好Harmonic Drive，但更倾向用资本支持西方供应链而非中国。
我确实看好 Harmonic Drive (6324) 作为西方谐波减速器领域的领导者，估值约 42 亿美元。在机器人/人形机器人的物料清单价值中占非常大比重。我实际上更看好 Leader Drive（因为大规模生产更便宜，覆盖更多零件）。也许三花(Sanhua)会是 $TSLA Optimus 的供应商。但用我的资本，我更偏好支持西方供应链而非中国供应链。这不仅仅是赚市场的钱，还关乎你想达成什么目标（帮助推进美国供应链和机器人行业领导者）。
英文原文
I do like Harmonic Drive (6324) as the Western Leader (eg. harmonic reduction gear) at ~$4.2B MC. Very large part of robotics/humanoid BOM value. I actually like Leader Drive more (since it's cheaper for mass production, covers more parts). And maybe Sanhua for $TSLA Optimus. But prefer to advance Western supply chains with my capital over ones in China. It's not just profiting off markets, but what you want to get accomplished as well (helping advance US supply chains and Robotics leaders).
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认为 Amazon 在机器人领域被严重低估
@Dog_Ziller 我其实觉得 $AMZN 的机器人业务被严重低估了。 因为它立刻就能通过自动化降低 opex 和 headcount，带来实际收益。 至于通用人形机器人，$TSLA、Unitree、Figure、Boston Dynamics、Agibot、Agility 这些名字应该都会表现不错。
英文原文
@Dog_Ziller I actually think $AMZN for robotics is extremely underrated. Since since there’s immediate practical upside to lower opex + headcount for automation. But for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well.
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从 CAD CEO 的说法看好机器人，但强调去中国供应链化
“机器人可能会成为史上最大的产品类别”——$CDNS CEO。 “预测是 25 万亿美元。全球 GDP 才 110 万亿美元。所以如果这真发生了，那就太大了。” 我方向上对机器人 / 人形机器人非常看多。 但也许现在是时候让 $TSLA 和美国真正开始优先考虑，如何在中国供应链之外去建设它了？
英文原文
“Robotics may be the biggest product category of all time” - $CDNS CEO. “The projection is $25 trillion. The whole GDP of the world is $110 trillion. So this is huge if this happens.” Extremely bullish on robotics/humanoids directionally. But maybe it’s time for $TSLA and America to really start prioritizing how we build it outside Chinese supply chains?
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寻求人形机器人早期纯正标的，2年内10倍潜力
好了各位。我需要一些关于人形机器人敞口的早期$RKLB equivalents（类早期Rocket Lab标的）的想法。未来2年内10倍+的潜在回报，且比$TSLA更纯正的人形机器人相关敞口。你们最好的想法是什么？
英文原文
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
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台湾/韩国/Foundry 受益面概览
简单给你个 TLDR，帮你省时间： 1. $ASML、$TSM 财报 = 前景不错。半导体 + capex 起飞。 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic 起飞。软件股就很惨。 3. 三星起飞，部分原因是 $TSLA 的 AI 芯片。 4. $UMC = 代工涨价。foundry 起飞。 5. 训练在中国起飞。H100 租赁价格上升，neocloud 也开心。 6. 氦气短缺 = 影响不大……我之前已经说过很多次了，但我不确定 $TSM 还要再说多少遍。 7. MLCC、电感价格 = 涨价。受益者我后面再展开。 8. “台湾的 OSAT 扩张可能会收紧全球测试产能并推高成本” 我最近做多了像 Shunsin（6451）这样的台湾 OSAT，有原因的。需求会继续跑赢供给，即使扩产也是一样。（cowos、sip、光学）
英文原文
Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad. 3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips. 4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr. 5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy. 6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this. 7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later. 8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs" I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).
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AI数据中心供应链严重依赖亚洲，中东冲突加剧流动性风险，稀土应成美国国安优先事项
Hi Ron，这个话题分为两个不同的部分： 1. 超大规模云服务商（$ORCL、$META、$AMZN）：他们的支出超过了盈利水平（$GOOGL 是罕见的例外，而 $AAPL 相对而言支出并不多）。 因此市场担心这并没有转化为实质性的收入。 尤其是像 Oracle 这样负债累累的公司，降息是使其稍微可持续的重要因素（如果你看债务利息，数目非常庞大），而降息既能推动产能扩张，也能带来实质性的成本节省。 由于伊朗战争和原油价格上涨，原定2026年的降息预期已经落空。 雪上加霜的是，人们担心他们的 AI 数据中心建设供应链会中断。 如果你看看他们的 AI 数据中心部件产地： - 来自台湾 - 来自韩国 - 来自日本 这是一个全球化的供应链。 虽然美国看起来没问题，因为它在石油、液化天然气、氦气和其他半导体供应链所需的资源方面是绝缘的。 但我们的亚洲合作伙伴并不处于长期冲突中。 所以当你看到亚洲那些规模较小、专业化的公司时，它们正在苦苦挣扎。 这种影响会层层放大，一直传导到终端的亚马逊网络服务 AI 数据中心（成本上升、供应短缺）。 2. AI 整体而言：投资者对此非常乐观。 问题在于实现路径，而美国在表面上看起来被中国卡住了。 - 美国投入过多，而中国和其他国家正在蒸馏我们的最新模型（需要 KYC 端点管控），坐享其成。 - 随着 AI 项目的规模扩大，它正变得越来越依赖中国公司。 我认为这是因为美国缺乏稀土，这应该成为我们的头号国家安全优先事项。 这是制造新一代 AI 硬件、机器人供应链和太空探索所需的。 这些资源都由中国和俄罗斯控制。即使是领先的"西方"公司，我已发现它们仍然主要依赖中国/俄罗斯。 这是我们确保前沿项目安全最大的漏洞之一。 如果你看光子学（AI 硬件如何通过光加速），我们没有西方的供应链来满足需求。主要材料来源是中国的 $AXTI 和中国的 Vital 两家公司，然后流转到日本或其他公司，最后进入美国。 如果你看我们的人形机器人项目（我们如何将 AI 带入现实世界），$TSLA Optimus 的所有躯体都是在中国制造的。 美国供应链缺乏制造这些组件所需的稀土，因为成本太高。 3. 中东地区的冲突 近期下跌的一个重要原因是流动性问题。我们在阿联酋、中东的合作伙伴主要在为私募市场提供资金（想想 OpenAI），他们大量的支出流向 AI 市场。 他们也是从 Meta 到微软等科技七巨头最大的投资者之一。 如果他们的油田继续受到干扰，他们可能不得不从美国市场撤出流动性。 这既影响这些公司在 AI 上的支出能力，也会导致美国市场的抛售下跌。 如果有takeaway（要点）的话：请把稀土列为美国头号国家安全优先事项。特朗普总统已经投资了 $USAR、$MP 和几个单独的公司。 但还有许多更多至关重要的、尚未盈利的公司，它们对于制造 AI、自动驾驶汽车和机器人都是必需的。我们需要打破对中国/俄罗斯的依赖。
英文原文
Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.
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全球供应链高度互联，战争将摧毁从AI到消费电子的产业链，受益者仅是以色列和俄罗斯。
我仍然看多市场（目前85%多头，15%现金/对冲）。即使在战争时期，我预期从$AAOI到$LITE的许多股票仍能跑赢大盘。然而...如今世界高度互联。现任政府可能没有意识到上游供应链的严重性和脆弱性。他们可能看到$AAPL的"美国制造"。或者$TSLA的"美国制造"，但如果你看看特斯拉人形机器人的供应链来源：-> 在中国。执行器(Actuator)材料来自俄罗斯的原料。材料来自加拿大的合作伙伴。-> 对于星链(Starlink)，大量供应链来自台湾稳懋(Win Semi)到韩国的公司。对于OpenAI、私募股权、大型科技公司和其他公司的资金来源：-> 很大一部分来自阿联酋、中东和其他地方（随着油田被炸毁，他们可能需要撤出流动性）。持续数月的美国地面入侵造成的混乱是是非常看跌的。我最初预期的是"震撼与敬畏"，美国宣称胜利，战争冲击被买回。但我不会鼓励美国走向一场旷日持久的战争。这对亚洲伙伴（韩国、日本）或我们在欧洲的盟友都没有好处。战争的主要受益者是：#1：以色列 #2：俄罗斯世界其他地区，包括美国，都被战争拖累。看起来"油价/能源价格上涨对美国有利"：但它摧毁了从$NVDA到$AAPL的超大规模数据中心(Hyperscaler)所依赖的大量供应链。
英文原文
I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges). Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform. However... The World is largely interconnected now. The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains. They might look at $AAPL "Made in America". or $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids: -> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada. -> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea. For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from: -> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up. Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish. I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back. But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War. This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either. The main beneficiaries of War are: #1: Israel #2: Russia The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War. It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US": But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.
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持有 VPG 作为 TSLA Optimus 传感器供给的一部分，但不确定是否会被中国伙伴替代。
@throughthetape 我持有 $VPG，因为这曾经是我做 Tesla Optimus 的多头标的。 不过，我也不能 100% 确定它们是不是已经被中国合作伙伴在量产放大时设计绕开了…… 但这段话看起来又像是它们仍然是关键供应商？真的很难完全确定。
英文原文
@throughthetape I have a position in $VPG since this was my $TSLA Optimus long. But, I'm not 100% sure if they got designed out or not by Chinese partners for mass production ramp... However, this statement makes it sound like they're still a critical supplier? Really hard to know for sure.
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把 VPG 视作 Tesla Optimus 传感器供应链的一环，并引用机器人量产目标。
我很久没再聊 $VPG 了。 这曾经是我看 Tesla Optimus 放量的一个传感器标的。 本周 Sidoti 大会上有个非常重要的线索： “到 2026 年底前，每周有可能扩产到几百台机器人。” 这听起来是不是很像 Optimus？ 如果按他们 CEO 那句“每台机器人 500 到 1200 美元”的说法来看：也不差。 但当然，很多机器人供应链在真正的人形机器人大规模拐点出现之前，基本都还是死钱。 也许 Unitree IPO 会让机器人供应链稍微活跃起来。
英文原文
Been awhile since I covered $VPG. This was a sensor play for $TSLA Optimus Ramp. Very important breadcrumb this week at the Sidoti Conference: "Potential to scale to hundreds of robots per week by the end of 2026." Kinda sounds aligned with Optimus? No? If we go off their CEO "$500-$1.2k per robot" statement: Not too shabby. But of course, a lot of robotic supply chains are kind of dead money until the actual inflection point humanoids at scale hits. Maybe Unitree IPO sparks some life into robotic supply chains soon?
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警告西方创始人不应在中国设企或融资，技术恐被强制转让
给西方前沿科技领域（AI、机器人、太空和半导体）从业者的一个忠告：创始人**绝对不应该**在中国本地设立企业或寻求那里的风险投资。尤其不要设立合资企业，除非你的公司叫$TSLA或者你是千亿美元级别的企业。硅谷有太多案例表明，中国政府进行胁迫和强制扣押。太多创始人被8000万美元以上的高额融资所吸引，与当地实体签署了大量“优厚”协议。然后在中国建立技术或亲自访问。但当资金被冻结、技术被强制转移给中国国有企业时，那些纸面资本毫无意义。没有高管愿意公开说出这些，因为他们都害怕中国或与中国有业务往来，但这就是残酷的现实。希望发完这条帖子后不要被机器人水军攻击。
英文原文
Just a lesson to people in the West working in frontier technologies from AI, Robotics, Space, and Semis: Founders should **NEVER** set up businesses locally in China or try and get venture capital there. Especially: Do not set up JVs if your name isn't $TSLA or you're a hundred billion dollar company. There's too many anecdotal stories of coercion and forced detaining by the Chinese government in Silicon Valley. Too many founders get lured by $80M+ high fundraising amounts. Many exuberant "deals" with local entitles. Then build their technology there or visit there in person. But that paper capital doesn't matter when it gets locked down and your technology gets forced transferred to Chinese state run entities. No executives want to say this out loud since they're all scared of China or have business ties there, but that's the harsh reality. Hope all the bots don't come after me after this post.
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认为 TSLA 若真兑现 Optimus 和 xAI 替代人力，市值会很夸张，但当前按常规指标仍偏贵。
不确定。我个人并没有持有 $TSLA，但我能理解为什么其他人会买，因为 Elon 确实很有远见。 如果他真的能把量产 Optimus 身体 + xAI 大脑落地，并且真的开始替代人类劳动。 那 1.3 万亿美元看起来都只是小钱。 但就目前来说，我还是认为按传统指标看，它显得偏贵。
英文原文
Not sure. I personally don't own $TSLA, but I can see why others do would given how visionary Elon is. If he actually delivers on mass production Optimus bodies + XAi brain and manages to replace human labor. $1.3T will look like pennies. But as of now, I mentioned it looks overvalued by conventional metrics.
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更信 Elon 能造出类似 Terafab 的工厂，而不是 INTC 的传统路线。
老实说，我更相信 Elon 能造出像 Terafab 这样的晶圆厂，而不是 $INTC 现在这种传统路线。 这家伙都能把像 Starship 这种小山一样大的可回收火箭送上天。 对，$TSLA 按传统指标看是偏贵。 但 Tesla 不是一家传统公司，不该按传统方式估值。 这人知道怎么把事情做成（虽然会有延误），无论是人形机器人还是 FSD，更多只是时间问题。 公司和在 X 上发想法的人，都需要这种跳出框架的人。
英文原文
Honestly... I have more trust in Elon with building a foundry like Terafab. Then I do with $INTC with their merchant one? The guy literally made reusable rockets like Starship, the size of small mountains, go vroom vroom into Space. Yes, $TSLA looks overvalued by every conventional metric. But Tesla is not a conventional company and should not be valued as such. The guy knows how to get stuff done (with some delays), it’s more of a matter of time with humanoids or FSD. Need more out-of-the box thinkers like him both in running companies and sharing thoughts on X.
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回顾父亲最看好的 PL，以及自己后来转向 RKLB 的经历和遗憾。
我爸最看多的股票？ $PL，3 美元时买的，现在 18 个月涨了 996.5% 以上。 我自己也为了好玩买过 1 股。 因为我当时并不觉得 Planet Labs 的营收能真正增长。 后来我转而重仓了 $RKLB。 现在 Planet Labs 已经涨了 10 倍以上，而我只剩下一堆懊悔。 顺带一提：他当年 35-40 美元时也很看好 $COIN，早期 $TSLA 他也看得很准，我一个都没听。 教训是： 有时候，你爸可能比你更会选股。尤其当你本来就跟他很像的时候。
英文原文
My dad’s most bullish stock? $PL at $3, which is up over 996.5% in 18 months. I bought 1 single share for fun. Because I didn’t think Planet Labs would grow revenue. I ended up long $RKLB instead. Planet Labs is now up over 10 times, and now I‘n left with a lot of regrets. FYI: They liked $COIN at $35-40 and early $TSLA as well, I didn’t listen to any of them. Lesson learned: Sometimes your parents are better investors than you are. Especially when you’re a mirror of them.
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博主提出三种情景下的减仓应对策略：TSLA换供应商则降Optimus风险，和平时期则退国防股，加密熊市则卖HOOD
除非发生重大变化。如果$TSLA转而使用中国供应商而不是$VPG进行大规模生产，那么我关于Optimus物料清单(BOM)的论点会略微改变，我就会降低风险。如果美国突然进入和平时期、战争结束，那么最好退出国防相关股票。如果加密货币最终崩溃，可能意味着$HOOD的增长周期接近尾声，可以考虑在$100以上时退出。
英文原文
Unless there’s material changes. If $TSLA comes in and uses Chinese suppliers instead of $VPG for mass production, then my thesis on Optimus BOM slightly breaks and I’ll derisk. If US suddenly enters peacetime and there’s no War anymore, it’s better to exit defense related stocks. If crypto ends up crashing it’s probably near the end of the growth cycle for $HOOD and it’s fine to exit $100+.
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认为即使先进机器人原型能在美国做出来，规模化时还是会因稀土而受中国控制。
@Adam_a_Dias 你当然可以在 $TSLA 或 Boston Dynamics 做出最先进的机器人原型。 但一旦要规模化，中国就会因为稀土优势而掌控局面。
英文原文
@Adam_a_Dias You can manufacture the most advanced robot prototypes at $TSLA or Boston Dynamics. But when you try and scale it up, China has control because of rare earths dominance.
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建议 NBIS 学 Tesla 一样给数据中心起更酷的名字。
对，$NBIS 只需要学 Elon 给 $TSLA 命名数据中心的方式，比如那个超酷的 “Colossus” 数据中心。 他可没叫它“孟菲斯数据中心 1”。 就照着这个思路更上一层楼。 把 $NBIS 下一个数据中心叫“The Singularity Megaplex”，放在 Vineland，之类的。
英文原文
Yep, $NBIS just needs to follow how Elon does his naming conventions with $TSLA like "Colossus" DC, which is a badass name. He didn't call it "Memphis Datacenter 1" Just one up that. Call $NBIS next datacenter: "The Singularity Megaplex" in Vineland, and it would command a much higher valuation.