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Waymo长期将凭借成本优势挤压Uber/Lyft生存空间。
@OtsukimiOtsu 感觉你在旧金山看到的每两辆车里就有一辆是 Waymo。短期到中期，我认为这对 $UBER 和 $LYFT 的影响微乎其微。长期来看，除非他们采取行动，否则他们在美国市场会被“做熟”（意指被彻底击败/淘汰）。因为自动驾驶车辆可以大幅压缩人工网约车的成本/利润率。如果 Waymo 推出 Uber Eats 的竞争对手，机器人技术也可以压缩配送成本。就像人们比较 Uber/Lyft 的乘车费用一样，人们关心的是其中最低的成本，方向上 Waymo/$TSLA 可能会在那里胜出。
英文原文
@OtsukimiOtsu Feels like every other car you see in SF is a Waymo. Short-medium term I see it as negligible impact to $UBER and $LYFT. Long term I see them cooked in US markets unless they act… Since autonomous vehicles can compress cost/margins of human ride shares by a lot. Then robotics can compress cost of delivery if Waymo launches a competitor to Uber Eats. Just like how people compare uber/lyft costs before rides, what people care about is lowest cost out of the bunch, and directionally Waymo/$TSLA would likely win there
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Waymo拟与Uber拆分，印证博主此前对Uber合作策略失误的判断。
事实如此，据《金融时报》报道，$GOOGL Waymo 正考虑与 $UBER 拆分。我去年认为 Uber 与 Waymo 合作是个糟糕的选择……因为 Uber 只是 Google 在扩张过程中所需的分发渠道。我认为 $NBIS Avride、其他中立玩家或垂直整合才是最佳路径。如今，其合作伙伴 Waymo 看起来成了 Uber 最强的颠覆者。
英文原文
There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT. My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up. And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players, or vertical integration would be the optimal path forward. Now their own partner Waymo looks to be the strongest disruptor to Uber.
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披露佩洛西丈夫5月底买入INTC和UBER看涨期权
南希·佩洛西刚刚披露： - 100万至500万美元的 $INTC 2027年3月看涨期权 - 200份 $UBER 2027年3月19日行权价为50美元的看涨期权合约 这些操作是在上个月5月29日进行的。（她的丈夫是执行这些交易的活跃交易者。）仅分享给喜欢 https://t.co/HDtn0T7QYL 的朋友们
英文原文
Nancy Pelosi just disclosed: - $1 million - $5 million of $INTC March 2027 calls - 200 $UBER March 19, 2027 call option contracts with a $50 strike price This was done last month May 29th. (her husband is the active trader executing this). Just for the people who like https://t.co/HDtn0T7QYL
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看好NBIS多业务高增长及分部价值，预期其现金流转正后估值重估。
$NBIS 是我在这批新云厂商中真正最看好的。情况很微妙，但他们本质上是由 5 家不同业务组成的公司，且均实现三位数的同比增长。我最看好其与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶出租车部门，以及 Clickhouse（他们持有约 1/4 股份），这两块未来估值很可能远超 150 亿美元。此外，其数据中心业务预计将在 2027 年 2 月报告前上线，带来约 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR)。我认为市场尚未充分反映其分部加总价值，但我预计在其低调建设阶段结束、资本支出 (Capex) 开始转化为自由现金流 (FCF) 后，Nebius 的估值将得到重估。
英文原文
$NBIS is my actually favorite Neocloud out of the bunch. It’s really nuanced but they actually are basically 5 different companies all scaling triple digits y/y. Biggest fan of their robotaxi division working with $UBER and Clickhouse would likely command higher valuations in the future than $15B (they own ~1/4th). This is on top of their DC business expected to come online and bring ~$7-9B ARR by Feb 2027 report. Don’t think sum of parts is priced in properly but I’d expect Nebius to be rerated after their silent buildout phase ends and they start turning capex to fcf
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看好NBIS和CIFR，指出Coreweave高息债务侵蚀现金流。
我认为 $NBIS 目前极具吸引力。$CIFR（指其托管业务而非新云业务）等特定个股也是如此。相比之下，$CRWV 的说服力则稍逊一筹。 Nebius 的商业模式本质上是将五家年同比增长(Y/Y)达100%的公司合并而成。（包括与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶公司 Avride、估值约150亿美元的 Clickhouse、AI 标注公司 Toloka 以及教育科技公司）。此外，还包括其核心业务部门，该部门已实现约70亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR)。 因此，尽管我们需要通过实际产生的自由现金流(FCF)来仔细审视这些乐观的收入数据，但公司方面表示长期 EBIT 利润率有望达到20%~30%。 最关键的差异在于，Coreweave 超过12亿美元的债务利息正在侵蚀其自由现金流，而其他公司则获得了2~3%的低利率融资。
英文原文
저는 $NBIS 가 현재 매우 매력적이라고 생각합니다. $CIFR(네오클라우드가 아닌 코로케이션 부문) 같은 특정 종목들도 마찬가지입니다. 반면 $CRWV 는 그만큼 설득력이 있지는 않네요. 네비우스(Nebius)의 비즈니스 모델은 기본적으로 전년 대비(Y/Y) 100%씩 성장하는 5개의 회사가 하나로 합쳐진 형태입니다. ($UBER와 협력하는 자율주행 Avride, 약 150억 달러의 가치로 평가받는 Clickhouse, Toloka(AI 라벨링), 그리고 에듀테크). 여기에 약 70억 달러의 ARR(연간 반복 매출)을 기록한 주력 사업 부문이 포함됩니다. 따라서 이러한 낙관적인 매출 수치들은 실제 창출되는 FCF(잉여현금흐름)를 통해 면밀히 살펴봐야 하겠지만, 사측에서는 장기적으로 20%~30%의 EBIT 마진을 제시하고 있습니다. 가장 중요한 차이점은 코어위브(Coreweave)의 경우 12억 달러 이상의 부채 이자가 FCF를 잠식하고 있는 반면, 다른 기업들은 2~3% 수준의 저금리를 확보했다는 점입니다.
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NBIS长期增长强劲但短期受增发压制，Q3或迎拐点。
关于 $NBIS，这是一只长期表现惊人的股票，因为其旗下四家公司的业务同比增长均超过100%，其中主营业务更是增长了700%+。 然而短期内，他们拥有超过20亿美元的活跃 ATM（增发融资），这带来了巨大的抛压。 我预计第三季度情况会好转，届时市场开始提前交易其70亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）目标。Clickhouse 150亿美元的估值非常看涨，此外还应关注 $UBER 与 avirde 合作的 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）进展。除此之外，近期进展相当缓慢，缺乏引人注目的亮点。
英文原文
As for $NBIS, amazing long term stock since all 4 of their companies are growing 100%+ y/y with their main business 700%+. However near term, they have an active $2B+ ATM, which introduces tons of selling pressure. I’d expect things to pick up q3 when markets start frontrunning their $7B ARR target. Clickhouse $15B valuation was incredibly bullish + should pay attention to $UBER Robotaxi ramp with avirde. That aside been pretty slow without much flashy developments.
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认为 NBIS 在多项重大合同后仍按困境资产交易
我指的是，$NBIS 宣布 Microsoft 合同时，股价大概在 90-100 美元，之后涨到 140 美元。合同前是 65-75 美元。 现在，在 $MSFT 190 亿美元合同、$META 30 亿美元合同、以色列政府合同、Cursor/Accenture、$UBER Avride robotaxi 上线 + 3.75 亿美元投资轮等等之后，我们又回到了 80 美元。 Nebius 现在交易得像一只困境资产。
英文原文
Meant when $NBIS annnounced the Microsoft contract they were trading around $90-$100 before rallying to $140. Pre contract it was $65-$75. Now we’re back at $80 after $MSFT 19B deal, $META $3B deal, Israel gov deal, Cursor/Accenture, $UBER avride robotaxi launch + $375m investment round, and so on. Nebius is trading like a distressed asset right now
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分析 robotaxi 对 Uber 的威胁取决于合作方是否竞争
不同意，但这很有细节。 如果是 Waymo，Robotaxi 会毁掉 $UBER 的商业模式。 Uber 大概已经意识到，任何和 Waymo 的连接，最终都会把用户导向 Waymo 的直接应用，而这个应用有一天会替代/绕开 Uber。$GOOGL 完全有能力补贴利用率。 因此，$NBIS Avride 在德州和 Uber 的上线，就是聚合器模式的好例子：他们允许乘客匹配到一家非竞争性 Robotaxi 公司的车，而 Uber 还部分持有这家公司。 这实际上会让 Uber 应用受益。 如果 $UBER 打好牌，Robotaxi 不会杀死它；但如果 Uber 允许 Waymo 和 Tesla 这种有直接竞争应用的公司匹配客户，并把自己的用户导向竞争应用，那 Waymo 和 Tesla 会杀死它。
英文原文
Disagree, but it’s nuanced. Robotaxis will ruin $UBER’s business model if it’s Waymo. Uber likely realizes that every link with Waymo will eventually funnel into Waymo’s direct app that will replace/sidestep Uber one day. $GOOGL has no problems subsidizing utilization. Hence $NBIS Avride Texas launch with Uber is a good example of the aggregator model where they allow riders to match with robotaxis of a non-competitive Robotaxi company that they partially own. And this actually benefits the app. Robotaxis won’t kill if $UBER plays their cards right, but Waymo and Tesla (with direct competitor apps) will if Uber allows customer matching with them + serves as a funnel for their users unto competing apps.
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看好RKLB与NBIS，认为市场低估了这两家行业第二梯队的成长潜力。
市场正在错误定价地球上最大板块中的第二梯队玩家。 我对 $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 的论点： 1. 太空领域 ($RKLB) -> SpaceX 估值刚从 $350B 升至 $800B。Rocketlab 将从 $26B 增长至 SpaceX 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题。 2. 自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxis) ($NBIS) Waymo 在一年内从 $45B 涨至 $200B。$NBIS Avride 将从 $6B 增长至 Waymo 之前的估值水平。 这只是时间问题，无论是一年还是四年后。 关于 $NBIS 的关键点是：Avride 只是其众多子公司之一，仅这一家公司在两年内的价值就可能超过当前的整体市值。 市场和空头都错误定价了这样一个事实：Nebius 拥有地球上增长最快、最热门的板块公司，且全部实现 100%+ 的同比增长。 做多 $RKLB，做多 $NBIS。
英文原文
The market is mispricing the #2 players in the biggest sectors on Earth. My thesis on $RKLB = $NBIS Avride 1. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B It's just a matter of time. 2. Robotaxis ( $NBIS ) Waymo went from $45B → $200B in 1 year. $NBIS Avride is going to grow into Waymo's previous valuation from $6B. It's just a matter of time, whether that's 1 year or 4 years from now. And here is the thing with $NBIS: Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years. Both the market and short sellers misprice the fact that Nebius owns the fastest growing and hottest sector companies on Earth, all growing 100%+ Y/Y. Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS.
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Avride是$NBIS核心资产，自动驾驶出租车市场潜力巨大，机构严重低估$NBIS价值。
根据 Seeking Alpha 报告与 Nuro 的基准对比，其估值现在可能约为 60 亿美元。但我会说 Avride 是 $NBIS 的皇冠明珠，而非 Clickhouse，尤其是当 Waymo 等自动驾驶出租车 (Robotaxi) 公司在短时间内估值飙升至 1000 亿美元以上时。 $TSLA 仅因推出自动驾驶出租车就增加了数千亿美元的价值（例如 Cathie Wood 表示自动驾驶出租车可能占特斯拉价值的 90%），这是一个因参与者稀缺而具有极大上行空间的市场。 基本上只有 $TSLA、$GOOGL 的 Waymo、$AMZN 的 Zoox、现代……以及正试图抵御自动驾驶出租车竞争的 $UBER。 $UBER 通过 Avride 而非与 Waymo 合作来扩大其防御能力至关重要，以避免将客户引导至竞争对手的应用程序（例如他们联合投资了 3.75 亿美元的原因）。 鉴于 $NBIS 拥有 Avride 83% 的股份，如果其规模达到约 450 亿美元市值（这是 Waymo 在 2024 年 10 月的估值）……这实际上超过了 Nebius 今天的市值，而它才刚刚在德克萨斯州启动。 像 Hedgeye 这样的基金可能没有计算 SOP 增长，并且严重低估了 Nebius。
英文原文
Probably around $6B now as per the seeking alpha report benchmarked vs Nuro. But I'd say Avride is crown jewel of $NBIS, not clickhouse, especially when robotaxi companies like Waymo scaled to a $100B+ valuation in a short time. $TSLA gained hundreds of billions in value just due robotaxi launch (eg. Cathie Wood said robotaxis could be 90% of tesla's value) and it's a market with extreme upside due to lack of players. There's basically just $TSLA, $GOOGL Waymo, $AMZN Zoox, Hyundai... and then $UBER which is trying to defend themselves against robotaxi competition. $UBER has the upmost importance to scale its defensibility with Avride instead of partnering with Waymo -> funneling customers into the other app. (eg. why they joint invested $375M). Given how $NBIS owns 83% of avride, if it scales to ~$45B MC, which was Waymo's valuation BACK in October 2024.... That's literally more than Nebius's marketcap today lol, and it just launched in Texas. Funds like Hedgeye probably aren't accounting for SOP growth and are vastly underestimating Nebius.
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反驳Hedgeye做空逻辑，对比Coreweave指出Nebius财务更健康且业务多元。
做空机构 @Hedgeye 正在做空 Nebius $NBIS。股价现为 $97.8。 他们的观点？Nebius 是 Coreweave 2.0。 Coreweave [ $CRWV ]： - 客户多元化程度低，主要是超大规模云服务商，约四分之一的积压订单来自 OpenAI。 - 剩余现金 18 亿美元。 - 由于 8-10% 利率的有毒融资，每年债务利息超过 13 亿美元。 Nebius 也是如此吗？ Nebius [ $NBIS ]： - 在 Neocloud 市场中拥有最高的客户多元化，包括 $META、$MSFT、政府、$SHOP、Mistral、$NOW 等。 - 剩余现金超过 48 亿美元。 - 票据结构约 40%+ 价外(OTM)，年利率约 2%，每年利息支出约 7660 万美元。 - 拥有对 $UBER 至关重要的 FSD 4 级 Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车业务板块（最后一轮融资 $UBER 投入 3.75 亿美元），以对抗 Waymo。 - AI 训练板块由贝索斯资助，并被 $AMZN、Anthropic 等使用。 - 持有子公司 28% 的股份，该子公司被 $TSLA、$NET、Tiktok、$META 等大多数上市公司使用。 - 4 家子公司同比增长 100%，伴随核心运营业务增长，Tripleten/Toloka 每年增加净收入。 这是同一家公司吗。
英文原文
A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8. Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0. Coreweave [ $CRWV ]: - Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI. - $1.8B in cash left - $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest. Same thing as Nebius right? Nebius [ $NBIS ]: - Highest diversification in the Neocloud market of customers from $META, $MSFT, governments, $SHOP, Mistral, $NOW, and many others. - $4.8B+ in cash left - ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest. - FSD level 4 Robotaxi self driving car segment that is of critical importance to $UBER (last round $375M with $UBER) to compete vs Waymo. - AI training segments funded by Bezos and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others - 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies from $TSLA, $NET, Tiktok, $META and so on use - 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y alongside their core operational business, with Tripleten/Toloka adding to net income every year. Same company.
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反驳做空 $NBIS 观点，对比其与 $CRWV 在财务及业务上的巨大差异。
做空 $NBIS 是个好主意，因为你认为它和 $CRWV 一样，不错的论点！ $CRWV -> 每年 13 亿+美元的债务利息，拥有来自 OpenAI 的大量积压订单，剩余现金 18 亿美元。 $NBIS -> 可转换票据结构，利息不会严重侵蚀盈利能力；客户基础多元化以实现高利用率（Shopify、Cursor、政府机构、Meta/MSFT 等超大规模云服务商）；拥有 48 亿+美元现金用于建设；Robotaxi 自动驾驶汽车板块被 $UBER 使用并正在扩展以与 Waymo 竞争；AI 训练板块由 $AMZN、Anthropic 等资助并使用；持有 28% 的子公司股份，该子公司被大多数上市公司使用，所有 4 家子公司同比增长 100%——市值 240 亿美元。 当然和 Coreweave 是同一家公司。
英文原文
Great idea to short $NBIS because you think it's the same $CRWV, nice thesis! $CRWV -> $1.3B+ yearly debt interest, large backlog from OpenAI, $1.8B in cash left. $NBIS -> Convertible notes structure where interest doesn't heavily cut into profitability, diversified customer base for high utilization (shopify, cursor, governments, hyperscalers like meta/msft), $4.8B+ in cash for buildout, Robotaxi self driving car segments used by $UBER and scaling up to compete vs Waymo, AI training segments funded by and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others, 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies use, all 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y - $24B MC. Same company as Coreweave for sure.
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分析NBIS和IREN财报后大跌原因，认为跌幅过度且受情绪影响。
财报前 $NBIS 股价在 $115-$135 区间。此后因以下利好下跌约 21%-40%：与 $UBER 合作推出 Robotaxi FSD，ARR 预估翻倍，GW 产能指引上调 150%，$META 意外合同，MSCI 纳入带来的资金流入。唯一的利空是 2500 万股稀释。作为投资者我极度反感这一点（更偏好 FCF -> 产能爬坡）。不幸的是，$ORCL 和 $CRWV 的重大债务警告、$CRWV 影响 $APLD 等供应商发行垃圾债及信贷收紧，以及 GPU 折旧论调同时打击了 Neocloud 市场。其中只有信贷收紧是实质性的，不足以解释 $NBIS 的大幅下跌（纯属情绪）。话说回来，他们确实需要改善营销。（例如没人将 Robotaxi 与 $NBIS 关联，主流新闻也不知晓此事）。至于 $IREN，他们出人意料地选择购买 GPU 而非 Colo 服务，鉴于 3GW 产能，投资者可能看到巨大的潜在稀释，因此也下跌了 40%。我相信 $IREN 在营销方面没问题，它拥有像 $ASTS 那样的狂热追随者（这对他们是好事）。
英文原文
Pre-earnings $NBIS was sitting around $115-$135. We've dropped over ~21%-40% since then on: Robotaxi FSD launch with $UBER, doubled ARR estimates, increased GW capacity guidance by 150%, surprise $META contract, MSCI inclusion inflow. The only downside: 25m share dilution. Which I extremely dislike as an investor (FCF -> ramp up would be preferred) Unfortunately, TI hit reports on $ORCL, $CRWV major debt flag, $CRWV affecting suppliers from $APLD raising junk bonds + credit tightening, and GPU depreciation arguments all kind of hit the Neocloud market at the same time. Only credit tightening was something material and doesn't warrant that much of a drop for $NBIS (purely sentiment). That being said they need to improve their marketing for sure. (Eg. nobody associates robotaxis with $NBIS at all and even mainstream news don't know about it). As for $IREN, they did a surprising move to buy GPUs instead of colo offerings and given the 3GW capacity investors probably see a huge huge amount of potential dilution, hence the 40% drop too. I'm sure $IREN is fine on the marketing front, it has that cult-like following like $ASTS (which is a good thing going for them).
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分析NBIS、IREN、CIFR及TE的投资逻辑与风险，并点评用户高波动组合。
从我的角度来看： $NBIS - 拥有最高的非对称上行潜力，因为除了核心的运营数据中心业务外，他们还有4家类似Robotaxi的子公司，同比增长超过100%。这只是一场等待市场定价部分价值（例如$UBER因Avride自动驾驶汽车大涨，但持有Avride的$NBIS却无反应）的游戏。 我非常看好Robotaxi和Avride。我不明白市场为何没看到这个机会（也许我们只是太早了，不过据我上次检查，机构持仓已从38%累积至流通盘的52%以上，所以有些人可能已经意识到了）。 $IREN - 潜在上行空间最大，但风险也是所有标的中最大的。仅为了达成与$MSFT的交易，他们就不得不稀释股权并支付58亿美元以上的硬件费用，且为了加速建设，每兆瓦成本高达200万美元。然而，这仅仅是为了变现一小部分产能，他们选择的是AI云路线，而非像$CIFR那样购买GPU做托管(Colo)。如果$IREN继续提供GPU服务，我会作为投资者极度担忧，因为执行存在不确定性，且变现“3GW管道”需要极其巨大的稀释。也许再等几个月会更好，因为短期投资者受损最重。 $CIFR - 可能是新云(Neocloud)板块中最安全的，因为他们有$AMZN和$GOOGL背书，资产负债表上有大量比特币以应对下一次减半事件，且虽然营收增长较慢，但通过超大规模云厂商合约获得了高毛利的托管(Colo)收入可见性。 $TE - 能源是个不错的博弈方向。 你的投资组合波动性极大哈哈（可能回撤50%），但如果你出身于WSB Reddit、加密货币和期权交易圈，那也没问题。
英文原文
Okay so from my perspective $NBIS - Highest asymmetrical upside possible because they have 4 subsidaries like robotaxis growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside their core operational DC business. It's just a waiting game until market prices in parts (eg. $UBER rose a ton from self driving cars with Avride, but $NBIS had no movement but owns Avride). I really really like robotaxis and Avride. I don't know how markets aren't seeing this opportunity (maybe we're just early, institutions accumulated over 52% of the float last i checked though from 38%, so some are probably aware). $IREN - highest possible upside, but biggest risk of them all. Just for their $MSFT deal they had to dilute and pay for $5.8B+ worth of hardware just to do the deal and ended up spending up $2m/mw in costs just for expedited buildout. However, that was just to monetize a small amount of capacity and they're going the AI cloud route instead of colo buying GPUS, unlike $CIFR. I'd be extremely worried as an investor if they kept doing GPU offerings because of execution uncertainty and extreme, extreme amount of dilution to monetize that "3 GW pipeline". Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most. $CIFR - probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event, and are doing slower revenue growth but higher margin colo offerings with revenue visibility from hyperscaler deals $TE - energy is a good play. Your portfolio is incredibly volatile lol (can swing -50%) but it's fine if you're born from the depths of wsb reddit, crypto, and options.
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NBIS属首创，市场将重估其子公司高增长及核心业务价值。
是的，$NBIS 确实是首创。我想不出其他参照物。 市场迟早会将其旗下子公司三位数的增长与其核心运营业务一起计入估值。 $UBER 就是昨天的完美例子：其自动驾驶出租车部门达成了史上最大交易之一，但股价几乎毫无波动，因为算法/市场尚未将网约车业务与 Nebius 联系起来。
英文原文
Yeah $NBIS is actually the first of its kind. I can’t think of any other reference. It’s only a matter of time when markets start to price in all its subsidiaries growing triple digits alongside its core operational business too. $UBER was the perfect example yesterday, one of the biggest deals for its robotaxi division of all time but barely any movement because algorithms/markets don’t associate avride with Nebius yet.
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作者惊叹某公司收入及子公司增速创纪录，远超Uber等巨头。
我是高增长公司的早期投资者。 $RKLB 用于太空领域。 $HOOD 用于金融科技。 $CRDO 用于连接技术。 但我从未 从未，真的从未 见过一家公司的前瞻性收入同比增长超过 700%。 同时拥有 4 家高增长子公司，每家都在同步实现超过 100% 的同比增长。 https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O
英文原文
I'm an early investor in hyper-growth companies. $RKLB for space. $HOOD for fintech. $CRDO for connectivity. But I've never ever, Ever seen a company grow forward revenue: 700%+ Y/Y. and while owning 4 hyper growth subsidiaries concurrently scaling >100% Y/Y each. https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O
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分析Uber不会全面牵手Waymo，建议考虑持股且无独立竞争者的NBIS。
@Jason 我100%确定 Uber 不会在所有城市都与 Waymo 合作。如果你经营 Uber，为什么要把所有用户导流到 Waymo 的 app 里？与其跟另一个 FSD-4（4级完全自动驾驶）玩家 $NBIS 合作，还不如选择他们部分持股且没有独立竞争者的那家公司。
英文原文
@Jason I'm 100% sure $UBER would not partner with Waymo in all cities. If you were Uber, why would you funnel all your users into the Waymo app one day? Instead of partnering with another FSD-4 player $NBIS avride that they partially own + doesn't have a standalone competitor? https://t.co/BE9J3sl72O
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对比GOOGL与UBER供应链标的股价表现差异
@babyfolio $GOOGL 使用 Planet Labs。$PL -> +80% $UBER 使用 $NBIS 的 Avride。$NBIS -> -3%，$UBER 上涨 4% ????????????$@$@$?????
英文原文
@babyfolio $GOOGL uses planet labs. $PL -> +80% $UBER uses $NBIS Avride. $NBIS -> -3%, $UBER up 4% ????????????$@$@$?????
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质疑NBIS因持有自动驾驶公司Avride却被市场低估。
@babyfolio 算法之神和资本市场难道不知道 $NBIS 拥有 Avride 吗？ $UBER 因为自动驾驶汽车市值增加了 65 亿美元以上。而拥有自动驾驶汽车公司的 $NBIS 股价却下跌，市值仅为 230 亿美元？ 我通常更偏向分析，但这完全说不通。
英文原文
@babyfolio Do the algorithm gods and markets not know $NBIS owns Avride??? How does $UBER gain $6.5B+ in market cap size off self-driving cars. And $NBIS that owns the self-driving car company goes down and it's only worth $23B?? im normally more analytical but this just made no sense.
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Uber股价因自动驾驶概念反弹，但其供应商股价却下跌。
@mattrw25 市场：天哪，$UBER 有自动驾驶汽车来与 Waymo 竞争！股价在 1800 亿美元市值的基础上反弹 3.7%+。 $UBER 使用的自动驾驶汽车公司：下跌 3%。 ?????? https://t.co/OMqYQnJ9Ju
英文原文
@mattrw25 market: omg $UBER has self-driving cars to compete with waymo! stock rallies 3.7%+ off a $180B mc. the self-driving car company that $UBER uses: drops 3%. ?????? https://t.co/OMqYQnJ9Ju
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质疑市场对Uber与Nvidia自动驾驶估值逻辑的矛盾。
市场到底在抽什么？ 华尔街因自动驾驶汽车业务，将市值超1800亿美元的$UBER推高3.4%，今日市值增加超60亿美元。 然而，Uber所使用的自动驾驶汽车母公司$NBIS却下跌3%，市值现不足240亿美元。https://t.co/ahpz7B0mwx
英文原文
WHAT IS THE MARKET SMOKING??? Wall Street sent $UBER, a $180B+ company, up 3.4%, $6B+ today off of its self-driving cars. But $NBIS, the parent company of the self-driving cars Uber uses, got sent down -3% and is now worth less than $24B. https://t.co/ahpz7B0mwx
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对比Uber与特斯拉Robotaxi发布后的股价反差，感叹市场荒谬。
看到市场反应，我忍不住笑了：尽管 $UBER 在德州推出了基于 FSD 的 L4 级 Robotaxi，但 $NBIS 的股价却下跌了 3%。要知道，该公司的市值仅为 230 亿美元，本来就已经非常小了。相比之下，当 $TSLA 在德州进行软启动时，其股价却飙升了超过 3000 亿美元。市场有时真是有趣。
英文原文
テキサス州で $UBER と提携したFSDレベル4のロボタクシーのローンチがあったのに $NBIS の株価が3%下落したという市場の反応を見て、思わず笑ってしまいました。同社の時価総額はわずか230億ドルと、もともと非常に小さいのに。 一方 $TSLA がテキサスでソフトローンチを行った際も、株価は3,000億ドル以上も価値が上昇したんです。 市場というのは、時々面白い動きをしますね。
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Uber联手Nvidia对抗Tesla和Waymo，共享出行市场或现多赢格局。
我会将其框架化为 $UBER + $NBIS Avride 对阵 $TSLA 对阵 $GOOGL Waymo。特斯拉有独立应用。Waymo 也有独立应用。两者都在与 Uber（拥有最大网络）竞争。如果我是 Uber，我会通过 Avride 来增长，以免用户仅仅被引导至 Waymo 的应用。共享出行领域可能有多位赢家（例如 $LYFT + $UBER），因为这是一个巨大的市场。
英文原文
I'd frame it more of $UBER + $NBIS Avride vs. $TSLA vs. $GOOGL Waymo. Tesla has its standalone app. Waymo has a standalone app. Both are competing vs Uber (which has the largest network) If I were Uber, I'd grow with Avride on this so they don't just funnel users to Waymo's app. Probably multiple winners (eg. $LYFT + $UBER) for ridesharing since it's a huge market.
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Uber整合NBIS自动驾驶出租车，有望加速规模化并降低成本。
这对 $NBIS Avride 来说太棒了，看看 $UBER 是怎么做的。据我了解，其运作方式是：当用户通过 UberX 等常规服务叫车时，系统会匹配 $NBIS Avride 的 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）供 $UBER 用户选择。这对规模化至关重要，因为用户无需像选择 UberX Black 那样额外付费去专门寻找自动驾驶服务。初期车内仍有人类驾驶员监控，但随后会像 Waymo 一样逐步取消。如果进展顺利，$UBER 可以扩大其 Robotaxi 网络并节省人类司机成本（这也利好 $NBIS）。
英文原文
So this is amazing for $NBIS Avride how $UBER is doing it. How it works from what I understand is when someone requests a ride with ubebx and the usual, they get matched a $NBIS Avride robotaxi pickup from $UBER and have the option. (this is huge for scale since it's not going out of the way to select a separate robotaxi section for more cost like uberx black). There's a human behind the wheel at the start, just to monitor if things go well. But they'll be phased out like Waymo. IF this works out well, $UBER can ramp up their robotaxi network and save the costs of human drivers (and this benefits $NBIS too).
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Nebius因算法忽视其高增长子公司而被严重低估。
不，这对 $NBIS 来说甚至算不上新闻。 就在刚才，Avride 与 $UBER 的合作发布可能是该投资组合公司十年来最大的头条，但在 $GOOGL / $HOOD 等新闻聚合器（算法也依赖这些）上，这甚至与 Nebius 不相关。 这就是为什么我一直认为 Nebius 在结构上被错误定价和误解，因为有像 Avride 这样 4 家同比增长 100%+ 的子公司，但市场/算法并没有将这些动态部分纳入定价。
英文原文
Nope, it’s not even news for $NBIS. Just now, Avride launch with $UBER is probably the biggest headline of the decade for the portfolio company but its not even correlated to Nebius on places like $GOOGL / $HOOD news aggregators (which algorithms rely on too) This is why I’ve been arguing Nebius is structurally misvalued and misunderstood because there’s 4 subsidiaries like Avride growing 100%+ Y/Y but markets/algorithms aren’t pricing in the moving parts
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Nebius子公司Avride联手Uber在德州推出L4级Robotaxi，开启商业化。
最新消息：Nebius [ $NBIS ] 的 FSD 4 级 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）子公司 Avride 已与 $UBER 合作在德克萨斯州正式推出。 自 2017 年经过近十年的开发，Avride 终于将其自动驾驶汽车技术投入全面商业运营。 https://t.co/DSPRvmNw3f
英文原文
Just in: Nebius [ $NBIS ] FSD level 4 Robotaxi subsidiary Avride has now launched in Texas in partnership with $UBER. After nearly a decade of development since 2017, Avride is finally taking its self-driving car tech into full commercial operation. https://t.co/DSPRvmNw3f
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对比NBIS的高增长潜力与SMCI的估值修复机会。
所以是不同的股票组合。我会这样解读： - $NBIS：高贝塔值，超高速增长，未来走向难料。潜在上行空间最大（核心业务同比增长700%，Robotaxi FSD部门等4家子公司同比增长100%+）。 例如，如果$UBER本月在德克萨斯州与Avride合作的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）发布顺利并扩展至其他地区，我们可能会看到该子公司估值大幅上升。 - $SMCI：盈利，估值修复带来中等回报（仍有~30-60%的回报空间）。同比增长60%，但远期市盈率仅为11倍，像$PYPL这样的零增长股或像$MSTR这样的困境资产。 对于SMCI，更多是看数据和行业，发现错配（例如$UPWK的价值投资逻辑）。
英文原文
So different basket of stocks. How I'd frame it is: - $NBIS: high-beta, hyper growth, who knows where it goes. Highest possible upside (700% Y/Y core business, 100%+ Y/Y across 4 subsidiaries like Robotaxi FSD division). For example if $UBER Texas robotaxi launch goes well with Avride this month and they expand elsewhere, we could see the subsidiary valuation rise a lot. - $SMCI: profitable, moderate return from valuation catchup (still ~30-60% return). Growing 60% Y/Y but priced at 11 forward p/e like a no-growth stock eg. $PYPL / distressed asset like $MSTR. For SMCI it's more about looking at the numbers/sector and seeing a misalignment (eg. $UPWK value investing)
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指出Arbe双业务模式，建议Robotaxi赛道对标而非跨业务比较。
@Sandeman52 提醒一下，Arbe Robotics ($ARBE) 拥有两种商业模式。在这条推文中，你将 Waymo 与 Arbe 的自动驾驶食品配送板块进行了比较。 更恰当的比较应该是 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）对 Robotaxi。 例如，在 FSD（完全自动驾驶）L4 级别、运营规模（例如 Arbe 与 $UBER 在德克萨斯州的启动）等方面的差异。
英文原文
@Sandeman52 Just a heads up, Avride has two business models. In this post you were comparing Waymo with Avride’s autonomous food delivery section. Better comparison would be robotaxi vs robotaxi. Eg. Differences in fsd-level 4, operational scale (eg. Avride launch in Texas with $UBER).
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解析$NBIS旗下Avride与Toloka的高增长潜力，指出市场低估其子公司价值。
$NBIS 即将超越 $CRWV，原因如下： 在 $TSLA、$AMZN、$GOOGL 和现代汽车中，Nebius [ $NBIS ] 拥有美国仅有的 4 家 FSD-LVL 4 级自动驾驶出租车公司之一：Avride。 人们还不知道的是： $NBIS 拥有 Toloka，其同比增长 140%。 Toloka 被 Anthropic、Hugging Face、$AMZN、$MSFT、ServiceNow 和 $SHOP 用于训练人工智能模型，在杰夫·贝佐斯风险投资部门的最新一轮融资中，Toloka 估值约为 7 亿至 12 亿美元。 Nebius 拥有多数股权（约 60%），但市场错误定价了其子公司与其核心业务一同以极高速率增长的事实。 虽然不如 Avride 或 Clickhouse 具有主导地位，但鉴于其增长率，Toloka 代表了 Nebius 投资论点中的重要组成部分。 我们最近看到 Scale AI（估值 290 亿美元）被 $META 收购（技术上约 49%），以此了解市场规模，并且由于利益冲突担忧，$GOOGL 和 OpenAI 的客户流失，这增加了 Toloka 的价值。据报道，Meta 收购后，Google 和 OpenAI 切断了与 Scale 的联系。仅 Google 在 2025 年为 Scale 预算了 2 亿美元。即使捕获其中 10-20% 的转移支出，也将实质性提升 Toloka 的收入。 管理层指引 2025 年收入为 50-70 亿美元。牛市情景假设他们达到 70 亿美元以上（上限或超过）。鉴于他们在 2024 年增长了 140%，如果企业交易转化，这并非不合理。计算如下：70 亿美元 × 25 倍 = 175 亿美元。若为 80 亿美元且乘数为 25-30 倍（若势头异常强劲），则接近 20-25 亿美元。 但鉴于其增长率，我们可能会看到： 基准情景（12-15 倍乘数）：7-10 亿美元（当前）-> 9-13 亿美元（1 年后）。 牛市情景 20-25 倍：12-17.5 亿美元（当前）-> 15-25 亿美元（1 年后）。 2024 年收入同比增长 140% 至约 2640 万美元，2025 年指引为 5-7 亿美元（同比增长 90-165%）。在一般牛市情景下，我们可能在 1 年内看到额外约 14 亿美元的子公司价值添加到分部加总估值中。 多年后，如果公司和市场增长，该价值可能单独带来 30 亿、60 亿、90 亿美元。 简而言之，市场仍在将 Nebius 的子公司估值为缓慢增长、商品化的业务，而非以三位数速率高价值复利的业务。真正的超额收益来自投资者理解市场错误定价了 $NBIS 这一篮子超高速增长公司。 $NBIS 拥有多个三位数增长的子公司，受益于并行价值创造：每项业务独立扩展，但其进展强化了母公司的估值。
英文原文
$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT, Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm. Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business. While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B. But given their growth rate we’ll likely see: Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time. In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows. In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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指出市场严重低估 $NBIS 的 L4 自动驾驶业务及其与 Uber 合作的巨大潜力。
我看到的关于 Avride 的帖子主要围绕小型配送机器人！真正的价值来自于 $NBIS 自 2017 年以来一直在开发的自动驾驶 FSD（完全自动驾驶系统）L4 级部门。 人们把 Clickhouse 当作金蛋，但真正的 $300B+ 美元机会在于 Avride 与 $UBER 大规模合作，与 Waymo / $TSLA 竞争。 我想指出 $NBIS 的非对称上行潜力，通过深入挖掘其分部加总价值，市场对此严重、严重低估。 这不仅仅是“估值为 $X”然后打个 40% 的折扣，它还将以极其荒谬的高速增长，就像其核心业务一样。
英文原文
I've seen posts about Avride but they're mainly around the small delivery robots! The real value comes from the self-driving FSD level 4 division that $NBIS has been developing since 2017. People namedrop Clickhouse a the golden egg, but the $300B+ dollar opportunity is with Avride + $UBER at scale competing vs Waymo / $TSLA. Wanted to point out the asymmetrical upside with $NBIS by doing a deeper dive about sum of parts that the market severely, severely undervalues. It's not just "valued at $X" and slash a 40% discount on it, it's also about to grow at extremely absurd rates like their core business.