机器人产业链

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1. 北京时间 2026-08-11 10:36:56 供应链分析

   优必选IPO或提振机器人板块，哈默纳科长期受益于人形机器人规模化。

   @Yangyftz 在我看来，这似乎是正常的市场波动。我认为优必选(Unitree)的成功IPO可能会在短期内提振整个机器人板块。无论如何，从长期来看，我认为哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive)将受益于人形机器人规模化至百万台级别，从而实现创纪录的营收。

   英文原文

   @Yangyftz Looks like normal market volatility to me. I think a successful IPO from Unitree might bring up the robotics sector as a whole near-term. Regardless, I see Harmonic Drive long-term to have record revenue numbers coming from humanoid ramp as robots scale up to the millions.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
2. 北京时间 2026-08-11 10:19:36 供应链分析 $AMZN$CCXI$NVDA

   宇树IPO超额认购8000倍，或带动美国头部人形机器人公司关注。

   呃……宇树科技(Unitree)的IPO在散户中超额认购超过8000倍。纯人形机器人公司的需求简直巨大？我个人加入了美国本土的Agility Robotics俱乐部（软银、$NVDA、$AMZN、富士康等），通过$CCXI以25亿美元投前估值参与。我的看法是，宇树科技可能以300亿美元以上（来自IPO前永续债）开盘，可能会在一两周内给领先的美国玩家带来更多关注。无论如何，这种需求简直荒谬。

   英文原文

   uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors. The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous? I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI. And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two. Regardless that's just absurd demand.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
3. 北京时间 2026-08-10 10:03:29 供应链分析 $AMD$ASTS$CCXI$LITE$NBIS$NVDA$RKLB

   OCP峰会及财报周催化光模块与机器人板块，Unitree IPO或带动机器人行情。

   近期的一些事件： - 明天是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar、Lightmatter、$AMD、$NVDA），你的共封装光学(CPO)概念股正在发布公告/更新。 这应该是某些光模块玩家的催化剂。 - 财报周：$ASTS、$RKLB今天发布（太空），$LITE周二（光子学），$NBIS在本周中段（Neocloud），还有更多。 - Unitree IPO认购今天开启，预计本月上市。 如果开盘良好，应是人形机器人+机器人板块的潜在催化剂，例如 $CCXI。 接下来的一周很有趣。

   英文原文

   Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
4. 北京时间 2026-08-07 16:27:45 供应链分析 $CCXI

   宇树科技拟90亿估值IPO，衍生品隐含市值360亿，对比美国同行定价。

   Unitree（宇树科技），中国的人形机器人（Humanoid Robot）龙头，本月将以90亿美元估值（~$9B valuation）上市！（~$62亿最初于3月申报）。衍生品市场（Derivative markets）定价隐含开盘市值为360.4亿美元，约为上市价的4倍。$CCXI / Agility Robotics，美国首家上市的纯人形机器人龙头，也将在第四季度晚些时候上市，上市前估值约25亿美元。看看市场如何对美国与中国的人形机器人龙头进行定价，将很有趣。

   英文原文

   Unitree, China's humanoid leader, is set to IPO this month at a $9B valuation! (~$6.2B originally per March filing). Derivative markets are pricing open at an implied $36.04B MC, roughly ~4X listing price. $CCXI / Agility Robotics, the first US publicly listed pure play humanoid leader, is also going public later in Q4, at a ~$2.5B pre-money valuation. It will be interesting to see how markets price in America vs. Chinese Humanoid leaders.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
5. 北京时间 2026-08-07 16:15:30 个股论点 $CCXI

   宇树上市在即，博主关注其对Agility及机器人板块的影响。

   @rektusd101 宇树科技(Unitree)本月上市，预计开盘估值约300亿美元（IPO前永续合约），从约56亿美元涨至目前的90亿美元。鉴于Agility在$CCXI下投前估值为25亿美元，我正密切关注宇树上市时机器人板块尤其是Agility的走势。我已阐述过关于人形机器人(humanoids)的逻辑，个人正在等待其兑现。

   英文原文

   @rektusd101 Unitree is being listed this month, and is expected to open around a $30B valuation (pre-IPO perps) from ~$5.6B -> $9B now. Given Agility is valued at $2.5B premoney with $CCXI, I’m just watching what happens to the robotics sector and especially Agility, when Unitree goes public. I’ve already laid down my thesis with humanoids and I’m personally waiting for it to play out.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
6. 北京时间 2026-08-01 03:31:48 业绩复盘 $AAOI$AMKR$CCXI$FORM$LPK$NVDA$SIVE$SPCX$TSM$XFAB

   博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。

   @RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。

   英文原文

   @RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
7. 北京时间 2026-07-30 15:03:35 个股论点

   看好宇树科技IPO，认为其商业化领先且具吸引力，但担忧地缘禁令风险。

   @jRTSGrTQwM1469 对宇树科技(Unitree Robotics)持非常乐观的看法，因为它是目前的全球领导者之一。 相对于美国Figure（估值390亿美元），其$60亿的首次公开募股(IPO)对我来说极具吸引力。因为宇树在商业化方面领先更多。 但从西方角度来看，中国未来的人形机器人被禁，这可能会稍微损害估值。 无论如何，如果可能的话，我个人会持有宇树的头寸（但由于地理位置限制无法做到），因为我同意埃隆的说法，即人形机器人将是未来。

   英文原文

   @jRTSGrTQwM1469 Very favorable view on Unitree Robotics, since they're one of the global leaders right now. The $6B IPO is extremely attractive to me, relative to Figure in the US (which is valued at $39B). Since Unitree is much further ahead in commercialization. But coming from a Western standpoint, China's future humanoids did get banned so that might hurt valuations a bit. Regardless, I personally would have positions in Unitree if I could (but can't due to geography) since I'd agree with Elon in saying humanoids are going to be the future.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
8. 北京时间 2026-07-29 02:45:19 个股论点 $CCXI

   FCC拟禁中国机器人进口，利好美国本土人形机器人公司。

   据路透社报道，联邦通信委员会(FCC)准备禁止进口中国的人形和四足机器人。旨在保护美国的人形/机器人项目。Agility Robotics ($CCXI) 和其他美国人形机器人参与者听到这个消息应该会很高兴。 https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX

   英文原文

   FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this. https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
9. 北京时间 2026-07-27 04:12:11 供应链分析 $AMD$AVGO$CCXI$CXMT$INTC$LPK$META$NVDA$ORCL$QCOM$SOI

   AI供应链多环节瓶颈与涨价，AMD光互连及存储需求强劲。

   一些新闻摘要(TLDR)： - 如果你看好中国存储，$CXMT 明天 IPO。 - 三星电子据报在获取大型 FC-BGA 基板方面遇到困难。伊比登(4062)据报要求长期协议(LTA)担保，三星电机寻求预付款。 - 三星 + $AVGO 签署至 2030 年的存储 + 代工 AI 框架，预计超过 2000 亿美元。 - $SOI 预计 2027 财年硅光子学收入将比上一年翻倍，超越摩根士丹利 60% 的增长预测。光子学逻辑起飞。 - SK 集团 + $NVDA 签署 5000 亿美元+ 合作伙伴关系，建设 AI 数据中心和 HBM4 内存。 - 据报 SKC Absolics 玻璃芯延迟至 2027 年。目标年底完成最终可靠性测试，明年量产。所以如果你好奇，这确实推迟了 $LPK 和其他人的爬坡（因此财报后下跌）。 - $QCOM 智能手机处理器价格因上游供应商涨价而两位数上涨。 - $META 预计发行 120 亿美元项目级/SPV 融资用于德克萨斯州埃尔帕索 AI 数据中心扩建。 - Naver 宣布 $NVDA 和 Brookfield 投资 100 亿美元建设 1GW 级 AI 工厂。近期计划是 2028 年达到 200MW。（英伟达投资 10 亿美元，Brookfield 非约束性 90 亿美元） - 64GB DDR5 服务器模块较 6 月底合约价上涨 146% - $INTC 将 14A 工艺量产提前一年，2027 年下半年风险生产，2028 年量产，相比此前 2029 年 HVM 预期。 - 三星电机赢得 2 亿美元 MLCC 订单（现有瓶颈）。 - $AMD（班达纳瓶颈），宣布 Helios 全面生产，2026 年 Q3 出货。包括与 Anthropic 部署高达 2GW 的 MI455X GPU 和与 OpenAI 的 6GW 基础设施。给出新的 >50% CAGR TAM，从 2025 年的 260 亿美元增至 2030 年的 2200 亿美元 CPU 市场。 - 2027 年为 Mi500 推出光互连。据渠道检查，AMD 正走向 CPO 路线（似乎很可能使用 Ayar）。 - $ORCL 赢得 70 亿美元国防部企业软件合同 - JX 金属将其韩国子公司半导体目标产能翻倍，投资 40 亿日元，2027 年下半年开始运营，应对三星电子和 SK 海力士等主要客户需求激增 - 钨六氟化物现货价格同比飙升 2.1-2.5 倍，继日本关东电化和中央气体宣布永久停产之后。随着 3M 计划退出 PFAS 生产，氟化液体供应面临真空。 - 从四家光芯片制造商财报来看，源杰/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/东山精密：无重大订单削减，1.6T 出货预计加速进入 2027 年。光芯片供应商预计将从短缺中获取超额利润。 - 宇树科技目标 2026 年人形机器人产能 30,000 台。阅读人形 TAM 像 $CCXI 等一样扩展。 - 储能锂电池订单上半年在中国增加 2900%。不太熟悉 EVE Energy 和其他电池制造商。

   英文原文

   Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.

   详情页 → 原推 ↗
10. 北京时间 2026-07-25 04:38:37 个股论点 $LYFT$TSLA$UBER

    Waymo长期将凭借成本优势挤压Uber/Lyft生存空间。

    @OtsukimiOtsu 感觉你在旧金山看到的每两辆车里就有一辆是 Waymo。短期到中期，我认为这对 $UBER 和 $LYFT 的影响微乎其微。长期来看，除非他们采取行动，否则他们在美国市场会被“做熟”（意指被彻底击败/淘汰）。因为自动驾驶车辆可以大幅压缩人工网约车的成本/利润率。如果 Waymo 推出 Uber Eats 的竞争对手，机器人技术也可以压缩配送成本。就像人们比较 Uber/Lyft 的乘车费用一样，人们关心的是其中最低的成本，方向上 Waymo/$TSLA 可能会在那里胜出。

    英文原文

    @OtsukimiOtsu Feels like every other car you see in SF is a Waymo. Short-medium term I see it as negligible impact to $UBER and $LYFT. Long term I see them cooked in US markets unless they act… Since autonomous vehicles can compress cost/margins of human ride shares by a lot. Then robotics can compress cost of delivery if Waymo launches a competitor to Uber Eats. Just like how people compare uber/lyft costs before rides, what people care about is lowest cost out of the bunch, and directionally Waymo/$TSLA would likely win there

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
11. 北京时间 2026-07-23 12:35:37 供应链分析 $MU$TSLA$TSM

    马斯克极度看好人形机器人，特斯拉正从零构建新供应链，利好上游供应商。

    以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记： 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1，马斯克就说过：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示： “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同，还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此，除了已知的供应商外，寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片，看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台，Giga Texas 是 1000 万台，所以从规模上看，$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提，马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU，鉴于他的声明，可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA)： “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间，并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下，以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”（仅针对结构性内存需求）。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下，后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产（之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD），以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR： 马斯克在判断未来方向（如电动汽车或太空）时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。

    英文原文

    Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
12. 北京时间 2026-07-22 23:35:34 杂谈 $AMD$SIVE

    博主测试防机器人机制，并计划参加AMD活动询问SIVE。

    @gaetan_po 是的，我目前正在测试一些用于防止机器人（Bot）的手段。 另外，明天我会去 $AMD 的活动现场，而不是全程参加两天，我一定会询问关于 $SIVE 的情况！

    英文原文

    @gaetan_po Yeah, I’m testing some things right now for bot prevention. Also going to $AMD event tomorrow rather than full 2 days, will definitely be asking about $SIVE!

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
13. 北京时间 2026-07-18 00:11:12 业绩复盘

    博主分享AI瓶颈板块近50%回撤，坚信长期逻辑未变并坚持持有。

    感觉糟透了，近期崩盘后本月最大回撤达-49.4%。 我的投资组合主要集中在人工智能(AI)的卡脖子环节和瓶颈领域。 包括存储、光子学、机器人和上游半导体（使用杠杆），这些板块的贝塔值通常高于其他板块。但近期因崩盘已降低杠杆。 我看到很多人在嘲笑这次下跌或AI概念股，声称显而易见： - “AI是泡沫” - “存储/韩综指是泡沫” - “光子学是泡沫” - “人形机器人不会有前途” - “新云厂商将被Meta等超大规模云厂商取代” 还有一堆散户和机器人喊着“清仓，永远别想恢复”。 但我坚信所有这些主题都有结构性收入增长或技术变革作为支撑。 此前当政府威胁实施全球关税时，我也经历过类似的回撤，随后市场实现了复苏。 我个人拥有更长的投资视野和比他人更高的波动容忍度，以观察事态如何发展。 特别是考虑到许多散户以周为单位看待问题：不，如果我将收入拐点预测在2027年下半年，而现在才2026年，我的投资逻辑并没有错。 总之，短期感觉不好，但为了透明度还是想分享一下。

    英文原文

    Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
14. 北京时间 2026-07-17 22:52:40 方法论 $AAOI$NVDA$SIVE

    博主认为当前崩盘源于杠杆而非基本面，强调建立独立投资逻辑的重要性。

    同意！在市场崩盘时回顾自己的投资逻辑是很好的。以我个人的逻辑为例，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年 Q3 初达到 14 亿美元季度营收（年化 56 亿美元），对应 80 亿美元市值。如果到 2026 年这种营收增长尚未体现在季报中，该公司就“完蛋”了吗？这同样适用于我在共封装光学(CPO)领域的持仓如 $SIVE，这是由 $NVDA 引领的架构转变。如果规模化扩展(scale out)出货量从 2026 年下半年增至 2027 年，而规模化堆叠(scale up)大幅放量至 2028 年。如果高盛(GS)预测的从 0 到 910 亿美元的潜在市场(TAM)扩张尚未实现，就认为它“结束了”吗？对于像 Agility 这样的机器人公司，如果上市尚未发生且人形机器人未放量，2026 年就“结束了”吗？我个人认为当前市场状况反映的是流动性和杠杆问题，而非个股基本面。最近看到 KOSPI、台湾、日经指数以及 AI、太空、机器人板块股票暴跌，对每个人来说都很残酷。尤其是当大量非理性行为源于杠杆时。最终，我们无法告诉你买什么股票、何时卖出、如何仓位管理或该做什么。只分享个人想法或研究，并追踪它们是否随时间得到验证。因此，建立自己的投资逻辑至关重要，因为每个人的风险承受能力或投资期限都不同。这通常能在崩盘时带来更高的信念。

    英文原文

    Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
15. 北京时间 2026-07-12 18:12:33 供应链分析

    IBK报告梳理波士顿动力Atlas机器人供应链及主要零部件供应商。

    上个月有一份 IBK Research 关于波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)价值链的报告。简要总结如下：IBK 将这些公司映射为 Atlas 的供应商：Hwashin (010690) / 身体、手臂、腿部；LG Energy (373220) / 电池；Hyundai Autoever (307950) / 集成；Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC

    英文原文

    So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
16. 北京时间 2026-07-10 20:35:39 供应链分析

    预测人形机器人普及度将超汽车，成本与性能将类比计算机发展

    @zhouyuan888 我猜测人形机器人(Humanoids)的普及程度将超过汽车。人们看到目前“5万-10万美元+”的物料清单(BOM)成本，认为人类能做得更好。但这关乎未来：我认为两者的普及度/成本最终会像计算机一样。在技术上，我们将看到人形机器人在...方面超越人类

    英文原文

    @zhouyuan888 My guess is humanoids will be more widespread then cars. People see the "50k-100k+" BOM cost now and think humans can do better. But it's about the future: I think both ubiquity/cost will end up like computers. And technologically, we'll see humanoids outperform humans in

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
17. 北京时间 2026-07-10 20:27:45 供应链分析 $CCXI$JBL

    三菱汽车联手Highlanders，多家车企加速布局人形机器人供应链。

    三菱汽车加入机器人竞赛，计划于 2027 年部署人形机器人工人。与日本机器人公司 Highlanders 合作。- Agility $CCXI x 富士康、丰田 - Apptronik x $JBL、梅赛德斯 - Highlanders x 三菱 - Figure x 宝马 - 波士顿动力 x 现代（子公司） https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG

    英文原文

    Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
18. 北京时间 2026-07-10 03:50:03 供应链分析 $CCXI$TSLA

    对比TSLA与CCXI在美产路径及供应链本土化程度的差异。

    @NullContex1s 我认为情况很微妙： - $TSLA 拥有最清晰的缩小美中大规模生产差距的路径。但为了实现这一点，大多数组件似乎源自中国？ - $CCXI 目前拥有一座机器人制造工厂(RoboFab)，年产能为 1 万+ 台，且 75%+ 的组件源自美国。 所以

    英文原文

    @NullContex1s It's nuanced, IMO: - $TSLA has the clearest path to close the gap between US/China in mass production. But to get this done, majority of components seem sourced from China? - $CCXI right now has a RoboFab for 10K+ units/year, and 75%+ of components sourced from the US. So

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
19. 北京时间 2026-07-10 03:35:56 供应链分析

    中国主导人形机器人出口，美国技术拐点或已至。

    中国正在出口全球约 90% 的人形机器人。我们不能继续轻视他们。 埃隆的评论：“暂时如此”。 与此同时，1X 今天发布了一段最先进的机器人手的视频。 看来美国人形机器人项目的拐点已经到来？ 两者 https://t.co/IrYFokdIDq

    英文原文

    "China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly." Elon's comment: "For now" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both https://t.co/IrYFokdIDq

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
20. 北京时间 2026-07-09 04:28:59 个股论点

    博主看好人形机器人主题，正积极增持 Agility Robotics。

    @neruda_de 不，我目前个人正试图尽可能多地持有 Agility Robotics 的股份。 因为我认为人形机器人(Humanoids)是继太空/人工智能(AI)之后的下一个重大主题。 我认为，过去对糟糕的 SPAC 名称产生的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)不会动摇我持有美国人形机器人领域领军企业的决心。

    英文原文

    @neruda_de No, I’m personally trying to own as much % of Agility Robotics as possible right now. Since I see Humanoids is as next major theme following space/AI. Don’t think historical PTSD with bad SPAC names will sway me from owning one of the US humanoid leaders.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
21. 北京时间 2026-07-08 02:00:02 杂谈

    调侃欧洲忙于监管空调，未关注中美人形机器人竞赛。

    @EidolonResearch 欧洲正忙着研究如何监管空调。我认为人们在美国/中国的人形机器人竞赛中并没有考虑到它们。

    英文原文

    @EidolonResearch Europe's too busy figuring out how to regulate air conditioners. I don't think people considered them in the US/China humanoid race.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
22. 北京时间 2026-07-08 01:52:09 个股论点 $CCXI$SPCX$TSLA

    看好埃隆推动美国机器人产业重回第一，个人持有CCXI。

    @stockshop199020 基本上就是埃隆。- 他和 $SPCX 是美国在太空领域领先的主要原因。- $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。他有时在时间框架上会出错，但方向是对的，所以我很确信他能再次让美国机器人产业重回第一。我个人持有 $CCXI。

    英文原文

    @stockshop199020 Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
23. 北京时间 2026-07-08 01:46:02 杂谈

    引用官方报告，警示中国机器人技术进展构成国家安全威胁。

    @WillD1373212821 是的？如果不是，它就不会构成国家安全威胁。 国土安全部网络安全委员会： “中国在机器人(robots)领域的进步速度令人担忧，美国政府应制定协调的政策和战略来应对中国企业的……”

    英文原文

    @WillD1373212821 Yes? If it weren't, it wouldn't be a national security threat. Cybersecurity Committee Dpt of. Homeland Security: "China's speed of advancement in humanoid robots is alarming, and the US government should formulate coordinated policies and strategies to counter Chinese firms' https://t.co/6zeVEJ6C0Q

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
24. 北京时间 2026-07-08 01:39:23 供应链分析 $CCXI$TSLA

    中美人形机器人产量差距巨大，呼吁美企追赶及政府补贴。

    美国为何如此落后？ 新华社：中国的人形机器人(Humanoid Robots)产量预计今年将突破10万台。 即便摩根士丹利最初对2026年的预测也仅为1.4万台…… 真的需要埃隆的 $TSLA、$CCXI (Agility)、Apptronik 和 Figure 迎头赶上。并且需要更多的美国政府补贴给 https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB

    英文原文

    How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
25. 北京时间 2026-07-07 04:06:30 个股论点

    宇树科技无需融资，地缘与稀缺性比私募融资更利于动能。

    @amitisinvesting 1. 我认为他们并不迫切需要进行融资。我的观点一半源于地缘政治，另一半源于作为首家纯人形机器人标的的估值稀缺性。在我看来，后者对于维持市场动能可能比私募融资更有价值。宇树科技(Unitree)正在中国寻求上市，而且……

    英文原文

    @amitisinvesting 1. I don't think they're in a dire need for financing. My take is half geopolitical, half valuation scarcity as the first pure play humanoid player. The latter is likely more valuable than private funding in my view for momentum. Unitree was going public in China and there's

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
26. 北京时间 2026-07-07 03:47:44 供应链分析

    反驳观点，认为人形机器人资本流入创新高，SPAC旨在加速散户入场。

    @ThematicTrader 显然并非如此，VC数据显示人形机器人+物理AI的资本流入已达历史新高(ATH)，而25亿美元的估值对于美国领先的人形机器人玩家来说微乎其微。我的看法是，SPAC结构是为了更快的IPO，从而让散户能够接触到美国的人形机器人公司。否则很多...

    英文原文

    @ThematicTrader Clearly not true, capital inflow for humanoid + Physical AI is ATHs from VC data and $2.5B valuations are tiny for the leading US humanoid player. My take is the SPAC structure is used for faster IPO, in terms of giving retail access to US humanoid companies. Otherwise a lot of

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
27. 北京时间 2026-07-07 03:31:28 个股论点 $CCXI

    散户受稀缺性心理驱动，高溢价买入Figure及$CCXI。

    观察围绕估值锚定+稀缺性的心理很有趣。例如，散户正通过封闭型基金(CEF)买入Figure，其最后估值约390亿美元…… 现在达到1580亿美元，由于它是私企，估值翻了4倍。 然后是敏捷机器人($CCXI)，其商业化范围更广。 是

    英文原文

    It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
28. 北京时间 2026-07-06 19:05:22 供应链分析 $CCXI

    AI大模型突破后，机器人产业链将迎来爆发。

    @haybee940 是的，随着 OpenAI/Anthropic 的突破，我们终于拥有了“大脑”。 现在是机器人（像波士顿动力 / $CCXI 这样在过去十年里一直做后空翻的）活过来的时候了。

    英文原文

    @haybee940 Yep, we finally have the brain with OpenAi/Anthropic breakthroughs. Now it’s time for robots (which have been backflipping for the past 10 years) like Boston Dynamics / $CCXI to come to life.

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
29. 北京时间 2026-07-06 18:19:00 个股论点

    博主认为人形机器人看多逻辑极强，看空者难以反驳。

    我觉得任何看空者都很难反驳这个关于人形机器人的看多逻辑。 https://t.co/aWWPYAvSIa

    英文原文

    I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case. https://t.co/aWWPYAvSIa

    详情页 → 原推 ↗
30. 北京时间 2026-07-06 04:53:58 个股论点 $AMZN$GOOGL$LITE

    看好亚马逊在物理AI转型中的赢家地位及其对机器人产业链的催化作用。

    @heyfinlo 是的，$AMZN 看起来是物理 AI（Physical AI）转型中的明确赢家。我认为亚马逊生态系统……与其他谷歌/元宇宙生态系统相比，更可能成为机器人玩家的催化剂。我隐约看到这与 $GOOGL TPU 对 $LITE 等供应商产生的效应存在相似之处。

    英文原文

    @heyfinlo Yep, $AMZN looks like the clear winner in physical AI shift. I think the Amazon ecosystem... is probably going to the catalyst for robotics players compared to others in the Google/Meta ecosystems. I kinda see parallels to the $GOOGL TPU effect on suppliers like $LITE or https://t.co/2Upo1XRLSp

    详情页 → 原推 ↗