概念词典 · 产业链
机器人产业链
以特斯拉 Optimus 为代表的人形机器人量产周期，Serenity 把它视为继 AI 算力之后的下一个十年级别供应链机会。
别名： robotics／ 机器人／ 人形机器人／ humanoid robot／ 机器人产业链
是什么
机器人产业链特指 2025-2030 年的人形机器人量产周期，玩家包括：
| 玩家 | 状态 |
|---|---|
| Tesla Optimus | 最受关注，量产时间表 2025-2026 |
| Figure AI | 一级市场明星 |
| Boston Dynamics | 韩股母公司 Hyundai 持股 |
| Unitree | 中国 |
| 小米 / 智元 / 宇树 | 中国 |
为什么这是十年级机会
参考 Serenity 的话：
“Robotics is going to be a 10-year structural story like AI was.”
人形机器人的供应链需求是 从无到有的指数级增长：
- 高精度减速器（谐波 / 行星）
- 应变片传感器（VPG）
- 激光雷达 / 视觉传感器（Aeva）
- 电机 / 伺服系统
- AI 推理芯片（NVIDIA Jetson / Tesla 自研）
每一台 Optimus 量产 = 几十颗精密零件 × 数百万台预期 = 结构性短缺。
Serenity 的覆盖框架
他不直接买 $TSLA（认为已 priced in），而是沿供应链向上找隐形冠军：
| 公司 | 价值 |
|---|---|
| $VPG Vishay Precision Group | 应变片，特斯拉 Optimus 关节力感的核心传感器 |
| 绿的谐波（A 股 688017） | 谐波减速器国产替代 |
| Harmonic Drive Systems（日股 6324） | Western Lead 减速器 |
| $AEVA Aeva | 激光雷达，绑定 Boston Dynamics |
他的策略：等 Optimus 量产数据落地，先布局上游零件
风险提示
他多次警示：
- Tesla Optimus 量产时间表反复跳票
- 关节减速器是公开难题，国产替代叙事≠真的能替代
- 小心被 “$TSLA 概念股” 标签炒一波就走
提到此概念的推文 (266)
按时间倒序 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
CCXI发布Digit 5人形机器人，博主询问看法。
$CCXI 发布了其 Digit 5 下一代人形机器人。大家怎么看？ https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5
英文原文
$CCXI releases their Digit 5 next-generation humanoid. Thoughts? https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5
-
Anthropic报告预示AI将重塑经济结构，利好资本密集型AI硬件板块。
Anthropic 的《经济情景》报告读起来很有趣：1. Anthropic 的“极端”情景显示 2030 年 GDP 增长达 15.4%，约为当前增速（~2.1% Y/Y）的 7.3 倍，这与 Elon Musk 关于 AI 将超越国债的说法一致。2. 几乎所有分歧发生在 2027 年之后。模型显示 2026-2027 年分离度较小，随后曲线在 2028-2030 年急剧弯曲。我的解读是：2026-2027 为基建年，2028-2030 为经济加速期。这与 $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL 的资本支出及短期 FCF 逆风（但 2028 年后预计巨额盈利）相吻合。3. 极端情景下，知识工作者失业率升至 17.9%，整体失业率 11.9%。“个人层面意味着程序员和客服可能需转行做电工和护士，这些受 AI 影响较小。”计算机科学专业 GG。4. 非认知工资：极端情景下比基准高 33.6%。电工/建筑类劳动力变得极具价值？（但这尚未计入人形机器人...）而 2030 年知识工作者工资比基准低 11.5%。5. 总资本收入比无 AI 时高约 81%。生产力爆炸 -> 总劳动收入几乎不变 -> 增量 GDP 几乎全归资本。因此资本所有权而非劳动... 使得计算、电力、半导体、网络、机器人等股票变得非常重要... TLDR: - 经济增长起飞 - 需思考的工作 = 失业 + 降薪 - 体力劳动更重要，如电工 - AI 股票起飞。
英文原文
Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read: 1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030 So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI. 2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027. Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030. So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration. Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028) 3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment "At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI." GG computer science majors. 4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario. So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...) Whereas -11.5% for knowledge workers in 2030 vs. baseline. 5. Aggregate capital income is ~81% higher than it would have been without AI Productivity explodes -> aggregate labor income barely changes -> essentially all of the incremental GDP accrues to capital. So that makes ownership of capital rather than labor... so equities like compute, power, semis, networking, robotics, etc. become pretty important... TLDR: - Economic growth go brr - Jobs that require thinking = unemployment + lower wages - Physical labor = more important, like electricians. - AI equities go brrr.
-
分析英伟达投资偏好及半导体、机器人供应链关键瓶颈与趋势。
@Bejewele_din_Fr - 英伟达($NVDA) 喜欢投资专用集成电路(ASIC) 公司 - 内存/多层陶瓷电容器(MLCC)/ABF载板/绝缘体上硅(SOI) 因长期可见性而令人兴奋(brrr) - 传统DRAM 因中国内存向高端转移而令人兴奋(brrr) - 中欧就企业问题展开博弈 - 共封装光学(CPO) 时间线保持不变 - 机器人领域的行星滚柱丝杠很酷
英文原文
@Bejewele_din_Fr - Nvidia likes investing in ASIC companies - Memory/MLCC/ABF/SOI brrr from long term visibility - legacy dram to brrr from Chinese memory moving to higher end - China EU fighting over companies - cpo timeline in tact - planetary roller screws in robotics are cool
-
博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
-
对比马斯克与Sivers沟通风格，看好TSLA增长叙事。
@sebiisb 看看埃隆·马斯克在财报电话会议(Transcripts)中的沟通风格对比。他非常具有前瞻性和远见。他聚焦于增长领域（如人形机器人）的经济影响，而非 $TSLA 财报中的薄弱环节。Sivers 的会议记录则感觉像律师式的披露，只是被动地为其类似 Allspace 的合同机会管道使用情况进行辩护。
英文原文
@sebiisb Look at the contrast of how Elon Musk communicates in his transcripts. Very forward looking and visionary. And focuses around economic implications of GROWTH areas (eg. humanoids), not weak parts of $TSLA earnings. Sivers transcripts felt like lawyer like disclosures and just going on the defensive defending opportunity pipelines usage with their allspace type contracts.
-
小鹏拆分机器人部门融资，人形机器人及物理AI领域融资热潮兴起。
$XPEV 拆分其机器人部门，并以超过 63 亿美元的估值融资逾 9 亿美元。 此前，Unitree 已完成首次公开募股(IPO)，目前市值约为 350-360 亿美元。 此外，还有由 $NVDA / $AMZN 支持的 Agility，其投前估值为 25 亿美元。我认为，Agility 在商业化方面实际上比小鹏汽车走得更远。 无论如何，人形机器人 + 物理人工智能(Physical AI)领域的融资正在真正起飞。
英文原文
$XPEV carves out its robotics unit and raises >$900M at $6.3B+ valuations. This is following’s Unitree IPO, which now has a ~$35-$36B MC. Then there’s $NVDA / $AMZN backed Agility… at a $2.5B premoney valuation. Which I’d argue is actually further ahead in commercialization than Xpeng. Regardless, humanoids + physical AI sector funding is really taking off.
-
博主感叹中国人形机器人进展迅猛，质疑谷歌出售波士顿动力。
看完中国“人形机器人奥运会”的视频片段后…… 我觉得我们要完蛋了，伙计们。 仍然无法相信 $GOOGL 卖掉了波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)，我不认为我们还有另一款能做空翻的人形机器人。
英文原文
After watching clips of China's humanoid Olympics... I think we're cooked chat. Still can't believe $GOOGL sold Boston Dynamics, don't think we have another humanoid that can backflip. https://t.co/uERCqW85F5
-
参考宇树和SPCX IPO反应，博主对Anthropic上市持保留态度。
在目睹了机器人和太空板块对宇树科技和 $SPCX IPO 的反应后，我不太确定是否希望 Anthropic 上市…… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb
英文原文
After seeing how the robotics and space sectors reacted to Unitree and $SPCX IPOs I’m not quite sure I want Anthropic to go public… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb
-
博主坚持年初选定的主题持仓，拒绝频繁换股，静待局势明朗。
@EnamelEquity 不，我所有的主题篮子(Thematic Baskets)都是今年早些时候选定的，包括像 $EWY 这样的存储(Storage)和像 $SIVE 这样的共封装光学(CPO)。 最近唯一的一次操作是涉及人形机器人(Humanoids)的 $CCXI，但那只是单次交易。 我只是在等待一切局势明朗，我不喜欢频繁换股(Jumping ship to ship)。
英文原文
@EnamelEquity Nope, all my thematic baskets were picked earlier this year with memory like $EWY and CPO like $SIVE. Only recent was kinda humanoids with $CCXI, but that's one-off. I'm just waiting for everything to play out, not a fan of jumping ship to ship.
-
宇树科技上市估值533亿，显示人形机器人纯玩需求超预期。
宇树科技(688836)现已上市。在上涨+492.18%后，其估值约为533亿美元。我们终于有了一个主要的人形机器人上市公司基准。作为参考，由$NVDA和$AMZN支持的Agility通过$CCXI预计将于第四季度以25亿美元投前估值上市。$TSLA市值超过1万亿美元，但Optimus被包裹在一个更大的公司内。但我认为宇树科技表明，市场对纯人形机器人玩家的需求比公开市场预期的要大得多……
英文原文
Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.
-
对比人形机器人零部件供应商的全球巨头与中国厂商的营收节奏。
@kevs_World02 哈默纳科(Harmonic)/LeaderDrive/舍弗勒(Schaeffler)似乎无处不在。还有一些更小众的零部件供应商，比如 $VPG，可能用于 Optimus/Figure。但我觉得规模差异巨大，因为舍弗勒声称他们正与约45家人形机器人玩家合作。不过，向 Agibot/Unitree 供货的中国供应商可能会率先实现营收，我很快会对该领域做更多研究。
英文原文
@kevs_World02 Harmonic/LeaderDrive/Schaeffler seem to be in pretty much everywhere. There's some more niche component suppliers like $VPG for maybe Optimus/Figure. But I think the scale is vastly different since Schaeffler claimed they were wokring with ~45 humanoid players. Chinese suppliers to Agibot/Unitree probably hit revenue first though, I can do more research into that area soon.
-
对比CCXI与TSLA机器人应用路径，关注中美自动化竞争。
@HowlStWoofer $CCXI 正优先瞄准商业化，因为他们已进入 $AMZN 和 $MELI 的仓库进行人类自动化作业。我认为 Agility 的机器人无需做出后空翻般的动作来完成配送或包装。亚马逊仓库工人也是如此。这是两种不同的应用场景，我认为波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)在突破机器人能力极限方面是最接近的同行。$TSLA 也瞄准通用目的，但我认为他们目前还难以实现。无论如何，观察美国能否追赶并超越中国将非常有趣。
英文原文
@HowlStWoofer $CCXI is targeting commercialization first, since they're in places like $AMZN and $MELI warehouses for human automation. I don't think Agility's Robots need to do backflips to do deliveries or packaging. Same with Amazon warehouse workers. Two different use cases, think Boston Dynamics is the closest peer in terms of breaking limits on what robotics can do. $TSLA is also targeting general purpose, but I don't quite think they can pull that off yet. Regardless, seeing if the US can catch up and leapfrog China will be very interesting.
-
宇树科技机器人性能突破，IPO在即，中国领跑硬件竞赛。
OpenAI 的发布让我想起了越南（股市）的闪回。随着每一个新模型，性能都在不断提升……但现在主角是人形机器人。宇树科技(Unitree)宣称其人形机器人： - 现在跑得比尤塞恩·博尔特还快。 - 现在跳得比任何人类都高。 随着其明天 IPO，似乎中国在硬件竞赛中处于领先地位。
英文原文
I'm getting Vietnam flashbacks to the launch of OpenAi. Where with every model, it just keeps getting better... but now with hunanoids. Unitree has claimed that their humanoids: - Can now run faster than Usain Bolt. - Can now jump higher than any human. And with their IPO tomorrow, it seems like China is leading the hardware race.
-
博主因无法买A股，通过CCXI布局人形机器人并看好Unitree。
@tRbW6qAUT717891 我无法购买A股，所以我坚持投资美股市场。 通过 $CCXI（由 $NVDA、$AMZN、软银支持）的敏捷性是我个人对机器人(人形机器人)领域的敞口。 但我正在为所有中了 Unitree 股票彩票的人欢呼。
英文原文
@tRbW6qAUT717891 I can't buy A-Shares, so I'm sticking with US markets. Agility via $CCXI( $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank backed) is my personal exposure to humanoids. But I'm cheering on everyone who won the lottery for Unitree shares.
-
宇树科技拟于19日上市，衍生品暗示开盘市值较IPO估值大涨363%。
正式确认，Unitree（宇树科技）这家在中国拥有8000倍+超额认购的人形机器人公司，预计将在2天后，即19日上市。衍生品暗示其开盘市值约为~416.6亿美元，较其~90亿美元的IPO估值高出约+363.3%。本周人形机器人领域真是有趣。
英文原文
It's official, Unitree the 8000x+ retail oversubscribed humanoid company in China. Is expected to go public in 2 days! So the 19th. Opening is implied to be around ~$41.66B MC per derivatives, around +363.3% above its ~$9B IPO valuation. Fun times for humanoids this week. https://t.co/yav4oRs2bO
-
澄清埃隆关于类人机器人原话的玩笑，表达对未来的兴奋。
@Mohsen20Es 另外声明一下，这是一个意译的玩笑，埃隆(Elon)实际上并没有说“Roger roger”。 原话是：“如果你想做人类能做的所有事情，结果发现你需要一个类人机器人(humanoid robot)。” 无论如何，我对埃隆为未来所做的一切感到兴奋。
英文原文
@Mohsen20Es Also just a disclaimer, this was a paraphrased joke, Elon did not in fact say roger roger. Exact quote was “If you wanted to do all the things that a human can do, it turns out you need a humanoid robot.” Regardless excited for what Elon does for the future.
-
博主认同马斯克观点，预计特斯拉Optimus机器人形态将收敛于特定设计。
我认为@elonmusk说得很对：“机器人不必都是人形。但旨在替代人类劳动的通用机器人，应适应人类已构建的世界。收到，收到。”就我个人而言，我预计$TSLA Optimus的形态将收敛于右侧图片所示。
英文原文
I think @elonmusk said it best: “Robots don’t all need to be humanoid. But a general-purpose robot intended to replace human labor should fit the world humans already built. Roger, roger.” Personally, I expect $TSLA Optimus form factor to converge to the right image. https://t.co/il7tND3n59
-
博主分享基于英伟达供应链瓶颈推导高贝塔标的的投资逻辑。
@KhalidIshaq85 至于黄仁勋/英伟达直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial)、$LITE、$COHR 用于光子学(Photonics)领域... - $CCXI (Agility) 用于人形机器人(Humanoids)领域。 我倾向于进行更复杂的投资，这是我的思考过程： -> 我知道共封装光学(CPO)主题即将到来 -> 英伟达锁定了所有连续波(CW)激光器的产能。 -> 也许，$AAOI、$MTSI、$AVGO、$SIVE、$SMTC 是剩余的西方CW玩家。 -> $SIVE 可能是最高贝塔(Beta)的敞口。所以那是我的个人多头头寸。 可能可以对其他主题做类似的分析。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.
-
博主认为应跟随Nvidia指引，押注CPO及物理AI供应链。
我觉得AI投资比人们预期的更简单。因为$NVDA和Jensen几乎直接告诉大家未来是什么。但不知为何，几乎每次市场都要等到事情真正发生才认可？ 2025年的Nvidia：大量收购EML和激光产能。 市场当时嗤之以鼻：“光子学是泡沫，像量子计算一样！____公司是骗局，管理层可疑。” 一年后：$LITE +678%，$AAOI +475.12%，$COHR +260.7%，$AXTI +3,843.9%。 _ 2026年的Nvidia： 通过长期协议(LTA)大量收购CW/EML产能。转向800V。明确强调共封装光学(CPO)的转型。指出物理AI(Physical AI)是下一个主题。 市场现在：“CW玩家是 meme 股！800V和CPO短期内不会到来，人形机器人无利可图！” 嗯……我们看看2027年会发生什么。 我认为我会押注Jensen/Nvidia作为领先指标。
英文原文
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.
-
点评Vantage、Anthropic等IPO估值，质疑Anthropic并看好Unitree。
IPO新闻……Vantage Data Centers正考虑以惊人的1000亿美元估值上市。如果不熟悉，$ORCL是Stargate（OpenAI终端用户）的锚定租户，Vantage开发/运营超大规模数据中心。Anthropic也预计IPO，据FT报道，投资者预期其估值达2万亿美元，超越$SPCX。嗯……我对Anthropic的估值持保留态度。Jim Cramer为这种估值辩护从来都不是好兆头。顺便说一句，Opus 5大概是我用过的最差的消费级大语言模型(LLM)，它就像一个智商只有5的LLM，基于糟糕的数据检索运行，还带着一种类似《神偷》(Fable)游戏里的上帝情结。不过企业端可能体验更好。Unitree也预计本月IPO，估值90亿美元。这对人形机器人板块是积极的风口。SHEIN不是AI概念股，但将于本月19日尽快上市。去问问你认识的任何女孩，她们可能都熟悉这个平台。
英文原文
In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation. If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs. Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT. Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign. On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top. Enterprise is probably having a better time though. Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors. Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month. Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.
-
优必选IPO或提振机器人板块，哈默纳科长期受益于人形机器人规模化。
@Yangyftz 在我看来，这似乎是正常的市场波动。我认为优必选(Unitree)的成功IPO可能会在短期内提振整个机器人板块。无论如何，从长期来看，我认为哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive)将受益于人形机器人规模化至百万台级别，从而实现创纪录的营收。
英文原文
@Yangyftz Looks like normal market volatility to me. I think a successful IPO from Unitree might bring up the robotics sector as a whole near-term. Regardless, I see Harmonic Drive long-term to have record revenue numbers coming from humanoid ramp as robots scale up to the millions.
-
宇树IPO超额认购8000倍，或带动美国头部人形机器人公司关注。
呃……宇树科技(Unitree)的IPO在散户中超额认购超过8000倍。纯人形机器人公司的需求简直巨大？我个人加入了美国本土的Agility Robotics俱乐部（软银、$NVDA、$AMZN、富士康等），通过$CCXI以25亿美元投前估值参与。我的看法是，宇树科技可能以300亿美元以上（来自IPO前永续债）开盘，可能会在一两周内给领先的美国玩家带来更多关注。无论如何，这种需求简直荒谬。
英文原文
uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors. The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous? I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI. And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two. Regardless that's just absurd demand.
-
OCP峰会及财报周催化光模块与机器人板块，Unitree IPO或带动机器人行情。
近期的一些事件： - 明天是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar、Lightmatter、$AMD、$NVDA），你的共封装光学(CPO)概念股正在发布公告/更新。 这应该是某些光模块玩家的催化剂。 - 财报周：$ASTS、$RKLB今天发布（太空），$LITE周二（光子学），$NBIS在本周中段（Neocloud），还有更多。 - Unitree IPO认购今天开启，预计本月上市。 如果开盘良好，应是人形机器人+机器人板块的潜在催化剂，例如 $CCXI。 接下来的一周很有趣。
英文原文
Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
-
宇树科技拟90亿估值IPO，衍生品隐含市值360亿，对比美国同行定价。
Unitree（宇树科技），中国的人形机器人（Humanoid Robot）龙头，本月将以90亿美元估值（~$9B valuation）上市！（~$62亿最初于3月申报）。衍生品市场（Derivative markets）定价隐含开盘市值为360.4亿美元，约为上市价的4倍。$CCXI / Agility Robotics，美国首家上市的纯人形机器人龙头，也将在第四季度晚些时候上市，上市前估值约25亿美元。看看市场如何对美国与中国的人形机器人龙头进行定价，将很有趣。
英文原文
Unitree, China's humanoid leader, is set to IPO this month at a $9B valuation! (~$6.2B originally per March filing). Derivative markets are pricing open at an implied $36.04B MC, roughly ~4X listing price. $CCXI / Agility Robotics, the first US publicly listed pure play humanoid leader, is also going public later in Q4, at a ~$2.5B pre-money valuation. It will be interesting to see how markets price in America vs. Chinese Humanoid leaders.
-
宇树上市在即，博主关注其对Agility及机器人板块的影响。
@rektusd101 宇树科技(Unitree)本月上市，预计开盘估值约300亿美元（IPO前永续合约），从约56亿美元涨至目前的90亿美元。鉴于Agility在$CCXI下投前估值为25亿美元，我正密切关注宇树上市时机器人板块尤其是Agility的走势。我已阐述过关于人形机器人(humanoids)的逻辑，个人正在等待其兑现。
英文原文
@rektusd101 Unitree is being listed this month, and is expected to open around a $30B valuation (pre-IPO perps) from ~$5.6B -> $9B now. Given Agility is valued at $2.5B premoney with $CCXI, I’m just watching what happens to the robotics sector and especially Agility, when Unitree goes public. I’ve already laid down my thesis with humanoids and I’m personally waiting for it to play out.
-
博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
-
看好宇树科技IPO，认为其商业化领先且具吸引力，但担忧地缘禁令风险。
@jRTSGrTQwM1469 对宇树科技(Unitree Robotics)持非常乐观的看法，因为它是目前的全球领导者之一。 相对于美国Figure（估值390亿美元），其$60亿的首次公开募股(IPO)对我来说极具吸引力。因为宇树在商业化方面领先更多。 但从西方角度来看，中国未来的人形机器人被禁，这可能会稍微损害估值。 无论如何，如果可能的话，我个人会持有宇树的头寸（但由于地理位置限制无法做到），因为我同意埃隆的说法，即人形机器人将是未来。
英文原文
@jRTSGrTQwM1469 Very favorable view on Unitree Robotics, since they're one of the global leaders right now. The $6B IPO is extremely attractive to me, relative to Figure in the US (which is valued at $39B). Since Unitree is much further ahead in commercialization. But coming from a Western standpoint, China's future humanoids did get banned so that might hurt valuations a bit. Regardless, I personally would have positions in Unitree if I could (but can't due to geography) since I'd agree with Elon in saying humanoids are going to be the future.
-
FCC拟禁中国机器人进口，利好美国本土人形机器人公司。
据路透社报道，联邦通信委员会(FCC)准备禁止进口中国的人形和四足机器人。旨在保护美国的人形/机器人项目。Agility Robotics ($CCXI) 和其他美国人形机器人参与者听到这个消息应该会很高兴。 https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX
英文原文
FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this. https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX
-
AI供应链多环节瓶颈与涨价，AMD光互连及存储需求强劲。
一些新闻摘要(TLDR)： - 如果你看好中国存储，$CXMT 明天 IPO。 - 三星电子据报在获取大型 FC-BGA 基板方面遇到困难。伊比登(4062)据报要求长期协议(LTA)担保，三星电机寻求预付款。 - 三星 + $AVGO 签署至 2030 年的存储 + 代工 AI 框架，预计超过 2000 亿美元。 - $SOI 预计 2027 财年硅光子学收入将比上一年翻倍，超越摩根士丹利 60% 的增长预测。光子学逻辑起飞。 - SK 集团 + $NVDA 签署 5000 亿美元+ 合作伙伴关系，建设 AI 数据中心和 HBM4 内存。 - 据报 SKC Absolics 玻璃芯延迟至 2027 年。目标年底完成最终可靠性测试，明年量产。所以如果你好奇，这确实推迟了 $LPK 和其他人的爬坡（因此财报后下跌）。 - $QCOM 智能手机处理器价格因上游供应商涨价而两位数上涨。 - $META 预计发行 120 亿美元项目级/SPV 融资用于德克萨斯州埃尔帕索 AI 数据中心扩建。 - Naver 宣布 $NVDA 和 Brookfield 投资 100 亿美元建设 1GW 级 AI 工厂。近期计划是 2028 年达到 200MW。（英伟达投资 10 亿美元，Brookfield 非约束性 90 亿美元） - 64GB DDR5 服务器模块较 6 月底合约价上涨 146% - $INTC 将 14A 工艺量产提前一年，2027 年下半年风险生产，2028 年量产，相比此前 2029 年 HVM 预期。 - 三星电机赢得 2 亿美元 MLCC 订单（现有瓶颈）。 - $AMD（班达纳瓶颈），宣布 Helios 全面生产，2026 年 Q3 出货。包括与 Anthropic 部署高达 2GW 的 MI455X GPU 和与 OpenAI 的 6GW 基础设施。给出新的 >50% CAGR TAM，从 2025 年的 260 亿美元增至 2030 年的 2200 亿美元 CPU 市场。 - 2027 年为 Mi500 推出光互连。据渠道检查，AMD 正走向 CPO 路线（似乎很可能使用 Ayar）。 - $ORCL 赢得 70 亿美元国防部企业软件合同 - JX 金属将其韩国子公司半导体目标产能翻倍，投资 40 亿日元，2027 年下半年开始运营，应对三星电子和 SK 海力士等主要客户需求激增 - 钨六氟化物现货价格同比飙升 2.1-2.5 倍，继日本关东电化和中央气体宣布永久停产之后。随着 3M 计划退出 PFAS 生产，氟化液体供应面临真空。 - 从四家光芯片制造商财报来看，源杰/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/东山精密：无重大订单削减，1.6T 出货预计加速进入 2027 年。光芯片供应商预计将从短缺中获取超额利润。 - 宇树科技目标 2026 年人形机器人产能 30,000 台。阅读人形 TAM 像 $CCXI 等一样扩展。 - 储能锂电池订单上半年在中国增加 2900%。不太熟悉 EVE Energy 和其他电池制造商。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
-
Waymo长期将凭借成本优势挤压Uber/Lyft生存空间。
@OtsukimiOtsu 感觉你在旧金山看到的每两辆车里就有一辆是 Waymo。短期到中期，我认为这对 $UBER 和 $LYFT 的影响微乎其微。长期来看，除非他们采取行动，否则他们在美国市场会被“做熟”（意指被彻底击败/淘汰）。因为自动驾驶车辆可以大幅压缩人工网约车的成本/利润率。如果 Waymo 推出 Uber Eats 的竞争对手，机器人技术也可以压缩配送成本。就像人们比较 Uber/Lyft 的乘车费用一样，人们关心的是其中最低的成本，方向上 Waymo/$TSLA 可能会在那里胜出。
英文原文
@OtsukimiOtsu Feels like every other car you see in SF is a Waymo. Short-medium term I see it as negligible impact to $UBER and $LYFT. Long term I see them cooked in US markets unless they act… Since autonomous vehicles can compress cost/margins of human ride shares by a lot. Then robotics can compress cost of delivery if Waymo launches a competitor to Uber Eats. Just like how people compare uber/lyft costs before rides, what people care about is lowest cost out of the bunch, and directionally Waymo/$TSLA would likely win there