$MRVL
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提醒方向正确也可能短期择时错误，应避免高杠杆短线。
你们这些在 $RDDT 上两天红盘后就亏99%的人是怎么做到的？ 只是持有 $AAOI 或 $MRVL 这类本来就高 beta 的个股，有那么难吗？ 你可以在方向上判断正确，但短期时点错了。 多一周或一个月，差别会非常大。
英文原文
How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
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称AAOI是当前最喜欢的美国多头并提到JBL/SIVE 1.6T机会。
回复 @DanyloAkymenko：$AAOI 是我目前最喜欢的美国多头。 我个人最近在它跌到150美元，甚至170美元时都会加仓摊高成本。 我认为一旦 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 一起量产，$JBL 应该会表现很好。今天也谈到了 $RDDT。 如果你认为 $MRVL 能到1万亿美元……
英文原文
@DanyloAkymenko $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T
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记录博通财报电话会与网络/互连长期机会。
关于 $AVGO 财报电话会的一些随手笔记： - 重申收入目标（2027年1000亿美元以上，我很确定市场原本希望这次财报上调这个目标，所以股价下跌）。 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋关于 $MRVL 围绕网络/连接/互连成为1万亿美元公司的评论吗？ - ……
英文原文
Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - https://t.co/JRiucvNnqc
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没预期英伟达今年入股Marvell，但看好其ASIC/连接收入机会。
回复 @WEB3_furture：好文章！我其实没想到 $NVDA 今年会与 $MRVL 合作并入股。 但无论如何，我本来就预计 Marvell 会因为即将到来的 ASIC/连接收入机会而成为一个有吸引力的想法。
英文原文
@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.
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梳理NVDA CPO生态中SIVE作为激光供应商的确认度。
回复 @Chi_w_wong：$NVDA CPO 生态 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天加入）。 $SIVE 100% 确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 很高概率是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 都使用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是参考激光器。 Sivers = ……
英文原文
@Chi_w_wong $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers =
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反思应更信任黄仁勋对MRVL的万亿美元评价。
好吧，经历 $NBIS 后，我确实应该更相信 Jensen 对 $MRVL 的判断。 这次他实际上给 Marvell 了1万亿美元目标。 Marvell 因一句话上涨35%。
英文原文
Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO
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暗示某光子学玩家成为CPO/可插拔/SiPH标准激光器。
一家公司的整个历史中最具后果的事件。 今天由一家光子学玩家发布。 这让它成为 CPO、可插拔和 SiPH 的功能性标准激光器。 适用于使用该代工厂的 $NVDA、$AVGO、$AMD 到 $MRVL 等公司。 有人知道名字吗？
英文原文
The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?
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称GFS新闻比SIVE+JBL更根本，因为默认嵌入参考设计。
回复 @wangxindian @StormDirac：我不确定人们是否已经意识到这条 $GFS 新闻对 $SIVE 的重大意义。 它在基本面上可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更具开创性。 因为 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA 或任何通过 GFS 硅光子的公司，都会默认把 $SIVE 嵌入参考设计。
英文原文
@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.
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黄仁勋称MRVL是下一家万亿美元公司，作者持有Marvell。
$NVDA 黄仁勋： “$MRVL 是下一家1万亿美元公司，女士们先生们。” Marvell 目前市值1910亿美元。 我持有 Marvell……但我们对 Jensen 带来5倍空间有多大信心？
英文原文
$NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D
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反驳SIVE空头，称MRVL Celestial可能直接向SIVE买激光器。
有一个新的 $SIVE 空头，完全不知道自己在说什么。 1. $MRVL Celestial 很可能直接购买激光器，$SIVE 是激光供应商，而不是通过 $POET。 因为自2023年以来，它们就被识别为可能的直接客户。 一个类比是如果 O-Net / ……
英文原文
There's a new $SIVE short seller with 0 clue what they're talking about. 1. $MRVL Celestial is likely buying lasers directly with $SIVE as the laser supplier, not through $POET. As they've been identified as a likely direct customer since 2023. An analogy is if O-Net / https://t.co/XDrPS6OVNG
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感谢比利时报纸De Tijd客观报道其CPO/光子学供应链论点。
非常感谢 De Tijd 的客观报道！ 看到我的工作出现在比利时顶级报纸上很酷。 也很欣慰看到记者报道 $AAOI、$XFAB、$MRVL Celestial，以及我在 CPO + 光子学供应链论点背后的细微差别。 感谢 KLismont 提供照片。
英文原文
Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics. Ty KLismont for the photo. https://t.co/1GdLxJHAsN
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复盘市场对SIVE从怀疑客户到怀疑执行再到份额的阶段性误解。
> 市场从怀疑 $SIVE 的客户（1.5亿美元市值）开始 结果这些客户很可能是 $JBL、Ayar、$AAPL、国防主承包商、$MRVL Celestial 等公司。 > 到怀疑其执行能力（6亿美元市值） 结果如果走 Win Semi 路线，就可以跳过资本开支。 > 再到怀疑它能拿到多少份额……
英文原文
> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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MRVL财报验证CPO主题和Celestial放量，间接指向SIVE激光需求。
$MRVL 财报是更广泛 CPO 主题的看多信号（也包括 $SIVE 作为可能的激光供应商）。 - “Scale-up interconnect 是 AI 基础设施中最新、最具战略意义的新兴机会之一。” CPO 主题 go brrr。 - 确认 Celestial 被 T1 超大云厂商选中用于 scale-up。 我过去发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 认股权证……所以很可能是 Amazon。 - 明年带 Celestial 的 scale-up 光学收入应该超过此前约1.5亿美元预期的2倍。 前瞻收入爬坡预期 go brrr。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队是“全垒打”。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长向量，上游 Celestial 供应商受益。 - $MRVL 现在专注于把 Celestial 推向高量制造。 这是放量指标。 如果你不记得，此前有 OSINT 映射显示 $SIVE 直接对应 Celestial，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的前瞻增长，是 Sivers 激光器的放量指标。
英文原文
$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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阐述SIVE如何成为下一个800亿美元LITE：CPO/1.6T激光kingmaker并通过并购扩展TAM。
为了让 $SIVE 成为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE： Sivers 是当前 CPO 和 1.6T 光学转型中的激光 kingmaker。 它们基本上向 CPO 领域的领先玩家供应激光。 从可能的 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他 CPO 玩家开始，在这些公司变大之前就合作。 现在又有 $JBL 这样的1.6T LRO 大玩家，以及更多可插拔产品测试/认证正在进行。 它们终于解决了 Catch-22 问题，并获得市场关注，可以在 NASDAQ 上市后（或现在通过股权）完成基础性 CPO 相关 IP 的下游收购。 并尽可能从激光源向以下方向扩展收入： -> 光引擎/ELS 价值。 -> 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 用2年从20亿美元到800亿美元估值一样。 但不同的是，Sivers 正在 CPO 超级周期中做这件事，这是光子学史上最快的 TAM 扩张。 我关注的是它们能否完成这种大卫对歌利亚式的转变，追赶 $LITE。 这比当前发生的小市值百分比回报更让我在意。
英文原文
For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.
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解释为何关注SIVE并购：早期客户后来成长为数十亿美元公司，Sivers懂得收购光学IP。
如果人们还没意识到为什么我如此关注 $SIVE 的并购。 Sivers 的潜在客户曾经是： Lightmatter 很小时 -> 成为40亿美元以上公司。 Lightelligence 很小时 -> 成为100亿美元以上公司。 Ayar 很小时 -> 现在由 $NVDA、$AMD 等资助。 Celestial 很小时 -> 被 $MRVL 收购并成为其增长向量。独立估值可能会超过100亿美元。 我极其确定 Sivers 知道该收购什么光学 IP。 它们只是卡在 Catch-22 中，原本缺少资金，尽管拥有最有价值的激光瓶颈之一。 未来 NASDAQ 上市和近期增长，现在解锁了下游 IP 收购潜力。
英文原文
If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.
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希望SIVE成为下一个LITE，而不是被MRVL/JBL收购。
回复 @osilayer8：不是，我是在为 $SIVE 成为下一个 $LITE 加油。 我建仓不是为了让 Sivers 被 $MRVL 或 $JBL 收购。 考虑到光子学需求，我也真的不认为 NASDAQ 上市后的融资会成为问题。 只是等待游戏。
英文原文
@osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE. I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL. I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand. Just a waiting game.
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SIVE空头比例或超17%，将面对MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、CHIPS支持和多客户收入驱动。
先放在这里： $SIVE 空头权益现在可能高于17%+。 因为很多瑞典本地对冲基金做空 Sivers 已经深度亏损。 它们即将通过以下方式遇到美国机构： > 2周内 MSCI 资金流入。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 美国 CHIPS Act 托底。 同时还有来自光学超级周期的核心收入驱动：未来一两年可能来自 $AAPL、$JBL、$POET、Ayar、Onet/Enablence、Lightium、$AEVA、$MRVL、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 和 $AMD。 我个人不认为在这么早期做空的瑞典本地人（以及一些随机算法）会有好结果。 流行说法是，每一股空头最终都会变成长多。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.
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区分 PENG 的整机层与真正的光子内核 IP
说得很细。买 $PENG 去押 $MRVL 的“photonic memory”大概率会失望。 他们更像是 $SMCI 那一层的集成商，外加一些潜在的软件增值。 高毛利、真正的基础 IP 属于 Celestial 或 Lightmatter 这类公司。 他们做的是在机架里围绕 Celestial / Marvell 的 photonic memory IP 搭一个 2U 盒子。 这也还处在联合开发阶段。 散户只是把这些层级全搞混了，以为这家公司在做核心 photonic memory IP。 我不是在评论股价会不会涨，只是说它的基础业务确实有意义；如果能越过 sampling，向上的弹性会很大。 只是每次看到别人把“PHOTONIC MEMORY”挂在嘴边就很烦。 他们做的其实只是放核心 IP 的机箱，连 qualification 都还没到。
英文原文
Very nuanced. People buying $PENG for $MRVL "photonic memory" are likely to be disappointed. They're on the $SMCI integrator level with potential software add. The high margin, foundational IP belongs to companies like Celestial or others like Lightmatter. What they do is build a 2U box, inside the rack, around Celestial/Marvell's the photonic memory IP. It's also in the development collaboration stage. Retail just misunderstand the different layers and conflate them all as this company building core photonic memory IP. Not commenting on the potential price, but it's a legitimate idea for its base business. And upside would be material if they go past sampling. Just annoying when I get comments about "PHOTONIC MEMORY". Then they're building the chassis that the actual photonic memory IP sits inside and not even in qualification stage.
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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评论CPO供应链分析文章，指出Sivers与多家光互联芯片公司存在映射关系。
很有意思的阅读！觉得你覆盖了关于整体CPO增长曲线的大部分重要观点，写了一个很好的牛市案例。 特别是关于$SIVE如何服务于Ayar、$JBL和$POET，并通过与Win合作采用资本支出轻量的晶圆厂轻资产模式实现规模化。 实际上还有大量与$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、Lightmatter以及其他参与者的供应链映射关系，以及$AAPL等用于相邻SiPH垂直领域的玩家。 但不包括更多尚未100%确认的参与者是合理的。不过O-Net/enablence ELS面向亚洲超大规模业者这一点已得到确认（文章中没有看到这一点）。 但这也说明了Sivers映射到的玩家数量众多。
英文原文
Fun read! Think you covered majority of the important points regarding the overall CPO growth curve and wrote a great bull case. Especially how $SIVE feeds into Ayar, $JBL, and $POET + scales using capex light fab-lite model with Win. There's actually a ton of supply chain mapping with $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, Lightmatter, and others of players like $AAPL for adjacent SiPH verticals. But makes sense not to include more not 100% confirmed players. O-Net/enablence ELS for Asian hyperscalers was confirmed though (didnt see that there) But just goes to show many players Sivers maps to.
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解释 SIVE 的 CW laser 为什么适配多家 hyperscaler 供应链
他们特别之处在于拥有非常先进、架构上独特的 CW lasers，所以能适配 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 以及 hyperscaler 供应链里的这些规格。 像 Furukawa、Sumitomo 这种公司，做的更多是大规模生产通用 / 标准化 CW lasers。 这也是为什么很多中游光学公司最后都会用 $SIVE 这样小但关键的 laser 公司，而随着它们一起成长，Sivers 也会跟着放大。
英文原文
What they do special is really advanced/architecturally unique CW lasers, so they fit Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and these types of specifications in hyperscaler supply chains. Companies like Furukawa, Sumitomo just mass produce generic/standardized CW lasers. That’s a reason why so many of these midstream optical companies ended up using such small laser company in $SIVE and as they all grow, Sivers scales with them.
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用 napkin math 算 Nextronics 的 CPO 价值
所以这是我在做多 Nextronics（8147）时做的便签纸计算。 他们是 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，供应 CPO connectors 和 cage thermal modules。 我按 2028 年的前瞻市盈率大概算了 2 倍，这也是我认为它有望在 2028 年重估到约 20 亿美元以上市值、具有很强风险回报的原因。 只看它的 CPO 暴露： -> CPO connector 大概 15 到 25 美元 -> ELS thermal cages 估计约 50 美元 每个 switch 18 个单元：18x50 = 900 美元 CPO Connectors：每个 switch 72 个 optical engines，72 x 15 = 1080 美元 （如果 $NVDA 扩到 Spectrum-X switch，这个数会到 1920 美元） Total Nextronics Content：大约 1980 美元（保守算成 2000 美元） 这意味着 BOM 只占 rack 的 0.08%，大概只占 switch 的 1.5%。 机构眼里这太小了，所以大概率被忽略。 但对 Nextronics 这家约 2 亿美元的公司来说，这很重要吗？ 当然，绝对很重要。 我算的时候把 Nextronics 在 Nvidia connector/cage 市场的份额打了 50% 折扣，因为存在多供应商。 并且我用的是 GS 的预测，再假设 $AVGO、$MRVL、ASIC CPO 生态的规模只有 $NVDA 的 30%。 净利润率：22.4%（GM 38% 时）到 24.0%（GM 40% 时）。 但如果按其他预测，只看 rack shipment： 2026：CPO revenue 约 1010 万，净利润（22.4%）约 226 万 + 基础业务 1250 万 = 1470 万（540k 单元是 connectors，40k 单元是 cage，且已除以 50%） 2027：CPO revenue 约 1.72 亿，净利润（22.4%）约 3853 万 = 5103 万（约 800 万单元 connectors，103 万单元 cage） 2028 scale up 扩张：CPO revenue 约 4.5 亿，净利润约 1.0093 亿，基础业务约 1130 万（约 4000 万单元 connectors，298 万单元 cages，例如 Nvidia ELS 量是 1990 万） 所以前瞻市盈率大概是 2026 年 15.4 倍，2027 年 4.45 倍，2028 年 2 倍。 当然，放量后综合毛利可能会下降，也可能会有别的玩家把份额稀释到 25% 左右，预测也可能比 GS 更高或更低。 但不管怎样，哪怕我偏差 50%，这仍然极具不对称性。 2028 年通常是 CPO 玩家大重估的一年，2026 年其实还很早。 希望我算得对，但 20x 的前瞻市盈率会对应 22.6 亿美元市值。 即便我们把： -> 市占率降到 15%。 -> 净利润率压到 14%。 -> connector ASP 降到 10 美元。 按 20x 倍数，股价仍然能有大约 4.5 倍回报，市值超过 10 亿美元。 我们走着看吧。（NFA，只是投机性财务建模）
英文原文
So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long. They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules. And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028. Just for their CPO exposure: -> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25 -> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est. 18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900 CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080 (If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors). Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case. Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch. This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored. Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company? Yes, absolute massive. For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source. And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA. Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM). But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments: 2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%) ~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%) 2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage) 2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M) So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028. Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS. But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%. 2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early. Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC. Even if we drop: -> market share to just 15%. -> compress their net income margin down to 14%. -> connector ASP to $10. At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap. We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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SIVE激光器供应商客户覆盖多家AI/硅光子明星企业，估值对应的超大规模客户量惊人
$SIVE 向以下公司供应激光器：可能是 $JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、$POET、$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、$AMD、O-Net/Enablence 以及其他公司。 这还不包括他们与 $AAPL 或 $AEVA 的硅光子(silicon photonics)项目，或者他们其他与CHIPS法案相关的工作。 以这个估值来看，他们所服务的超大规模企业(hyperscaler)数量相当惊人。
英文原文
$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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SIVE 是激光瓶颈供应商，可能供货多家CPO厂商却未被机构发掘。
$SIVE 处于高盛所说的具有显著每股收益(EPS)上行空间的激光瓶颈环节。 但它们仍未被机构发现，尽管它们可能与 $AMD 共封装光学(CPO)、$MRVL CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、$POET 等公司有关联。 Ayar 被提及了，但奇怪的是他们没有找到它们的上游激光供应商。
英文原文
$SIVE is in the laser chokepoint that Goldman says has significant EPS upside. But they're undiscovered to institutions still, despite their likely mapping to $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, $POET, and others. Ayar got mentioned though, but strange they didn't find their upstream laser supplier.
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总结自己这个月的收益表现
我这个月收益还不错。 从 $AAOI 涨 100% 到 $SOI 涨 153.9%。 $SNDK +70%、$INTC +97.7%、$MRVL +54%、$ARM +41.5% 对我个人来说都算跑输。 但整体看还是挺猛的。
英文原文
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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西方机构开始关注 SIVE
有个有意思的事实：我不认为任何大型美国机构之前持有过 $SIVE / $SIVEF，因为它原本主要是瑞典本土散户持有的股票。 另外，美国基金也有一些投资限制，阻止它们入场（例如纳斯达克上市 / 10 亿美元市值）。 但如今情况已经变了，原因包括欧洲媒体把本地持有人洗出来、Sivers 即将登陆纳斯达克，以及市值突破 10 亿美元以上。 而且 13 亿美元对超大规模云厂商和美国机构来说真的只是零钱。 我很有把握他们很多都会想要接触 CPO、硅光和激光领域，因为全世界能做这类东西的公司本来就很少，比如 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MTSI。 尤其是……一家具备 CHIPS Act 背景的激光供应商，可能会出现在 $AMD、$MRVL、$AAPL、Lightmatter、Ayar、AlChip、GUC、O-Net 以及其他像 Golden Dome 这样的供应链里。 这部分也有博弈论因素，是为了积累股份。 因为现在美西方散户已经持有了相当大一部分流通股（来自瑞典卖盘）。 而美国机构现在也想要敞口。
英文原文
Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.
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1.4 亿市值对激光供应链太小
@TVAFR786 14 亿美元市值算小吗？ 尤其如果他们的激光器很可能服务于 $AMD CPO、$MRVL CPO、$JBL 1.6T LRO、$AAPL 硅光、Ayar（AlChip）、Lightmatter、O-Net 终端客户（亚洲超大规模云厂商）以及其他项目。
英文原文
@TVAFR786 $1.4B MC is tiny? Especially if their lasers likely power $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T LRO, $AAPL Silicon Photonics, Ayar (AlChip), Lightmatter, O-Net End users (Asian Hyperscalers), and others.
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Celestial 可能是 SIVE 直接客户
很棒的发现。基本上从旧投资人材料和融资金额来看： 看起来 Celestial 曾经就是 $SIVE 的直接客户。 所以：$MRVL 现在大概率是在直接从 $SIVE 买激光器，而不是通过 Poet 购买（Poet 再买 Sivers 激光器来封装）。 因为 Celestial 最初就是围绕 Sivers 的激光器设计的。 Marvell 可能早就准备好通过垂直整合，绕开封装 IP 和组装环节，以获得更高利润率。 现在直接供货给 $MRVL，对 $SIVE 来说非常利好。
英文原文
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
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MSSCorps 在 CPO 检测上像垄断
我现在做多 MSSCorps（6830），市值大约 14 亿美元。 这看起来像是 CPO 检测环节的功能性垄断。 但市场可能把它和材料/失效分析混淆了，后者更像 MA-tek 和 iST 那样的寡头格局。 按客户映射来看： 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC 还有很大概率包括 $AVGO、联发科、三星、$MRVL 等等（他们也提到了欧盟）。 如果你感兴趣： - 台北时报把 TSM 说成是客户，Msscorps 为其提供先进材料和失效分析，还点名了苹果、英伟达、Lam、AMAT（也感谢 Latent 和我一起做尽调。英伟达那边还有通过 LinkedIn 之类看到的其他供应链关系） - 对 $AMSL 而言，《台北时报》在 2024 年 9 月 10 日写到：“ASML 采用了 Msscorps 超高灵敏度的光刻胶材料分析” - 对英特尔来说，材料分析实验室 MSSCORPS 已经拿下了英伟达和英特尔等大厂的订单（工业技术研究院） 至于检测（非破坏性红外漏检），他们几乎是垄断。 而且他们还积极使用诉讼（比如 Enli Tech 诉讼）来挡住竞争对手，我把这看成正面因素。 这带来了巨大的定价权和收益率，而且每个主要玩家都要经过他们。 CPO 检测市场也极其关键，和 $AXTI 在 InP 基板环节一样，这种巨大卡点具有纯粹的定价权和提价能力。 风险在于专利诉讼不一定按计划推进，但英伟达和其他超大规模云厂商大概率不会在 MSSCorps 赢了之后去找别家，因为他们不想承担风险。 所以这本身就构成了一个多年期的巨大优势。 超大规模云厂商不会等一个新兴竞争对手证明自己能赢再行动，也不会愿意承担这个风险。 我确实看到了 MSSCorps 因为在 CPO 的关键良率卡点上有机会重估，所以我选择做多（非投资建议，自己做功课），这就是我的思路。
英文原文
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research). For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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POET 被替代意味着 Marvell 直连 SIVE
所以 $POET 做的是封装那一层的事情。 如果 $MRVL 放弃了 Poet，意思就是 Marvell 认为自己可以把那一层垂直整合进 Celestial，并且直接自己买激光器（不只是 nda 纠纷那么简单）。 Marvell 还是得买激光器。我相信他们会准备多来源合同，但我不认为 $NVDA 会把分配额度分给 $MRVL。 这也是为什么 $SIVE 很可能仍然是直接供货给 Marvell 的激光供应商，因为它们已经符合 Celestial 的规格，这样就能直接去掉一个中间层玩家。
英文原文
So $POET does the packaging side of things. If $MRVL dropped Poet, it means Marvell felt they could vertically integrate that layer into Celestial and just buy lasers directly themselves (not just the nda dispute). Marvell would still need to buy lasers. I'm sure they're planning multi-source contracts but I don't think $NVDA would share allocation to $MRVL. Which is why $SIVE is likely still the laser supplier direct to Marvell since they fit celestial specs already, and that just cuts out a middleware player.
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日本散户持仓是好信号
我很高兴日本社区在研究之后开始建 $SIVE 仓位！ 更强的国际股东基础总是正面的。 至于我的一些看法，市场现在看起来像这样： 1. $NVDA 把 $LITE / $COHR 的分配额度买走了 2. $AMD 的 CPO 走的是 $GFS + $SIVE / Win，剩下的激光供应可能会给 $LITE，如果还有分配的话。 3. 还有……$MRVL 的 CPO 不管怎样都需要激光器。 $SIVE 看起来是最后几家纯 merchant laser 供应商之一。 所以 Marvell 大概率会直接用 $SIVE（本来就符合 Celestial 规格），后面再多来源（也许是 $MTSI）。之后他们再把进入 Celestial 的中介封装 IP 垂直整合掉。 支持这个判断的有一些有意思的点： -> Ayar 把 $MTSI 和 $LITE 从官网上删掉了，改用了 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。Ayar 和 AlChip/GUC 等都有连接。 -> 如果看 $GFS 的幻灯片，在 $AMD 把 CPO 项目交给 GlobalFoundries 之后，只剩下 $SIVE 和 $LITE 两家公众公司。 -> $SIVE 很可能从去年开始就和 Win 有激光产能爬坡协议。 $NVDA 很可能还没把这些激光产能完全分配完，所以像 $JBL、$AMD 以及其他公司会把溢出订单给 Sivers。 因为 $LITE 已经暗示 2028 年的产能基本满了。 我可能也有错，但基于公开信息来看，情况就是这样。 至于为什么我认为它是个好长线： -> Sivers 基本上过去没怎么暴露在 800G 或更早的代际里。 -> 欧洲市场按过去 12 个月营收定价……所以之前估值一直被压得很低。 -> 它们拿到了 $NVDA 造成的超额需求。 但它们也正好站在 CPO 和甚至下一代 1.6T（$JBL LRO）扩产的最前沿，明年就会开始。 然后到 2027 年下半年或 2028 年，还能扩到硅光等相邻领域，比如可能的 $AAPL 消费设备。 或者 FMCW 4D AI 公司，比如 $AEVA。 这么多年开发，终于在明年要开花结果了。 我个人觉得市场漏掉了一个大东西，公开信息会随着时间推移慢慢被大家通过供应链关系、网站挖掘或者演示材料发现。 超大规模云厂商供应商不会无缘无故选一家 10 亿美元市值的瑞典激光公司。 和 $JBL 的直接合同就是最大的信号。 这也是我为什么高 conviction 做多。
英文原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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龙虾类比
假设 $SIVE、$LITE 是做特制的蓝色和红色缅因龙虾。 这非常稀有，没多少人能做出来。 $POET 负责把龙虾蒸熟，并装进即食容器里。 $MRVL 把这些龙虾尾买来，和西兰花、牛排一起装盘。 然后以最高价格卖给高端客户。 Marvell 以供应蓝色龙虾尾而闻名。 但也能一直卖红色的，而且它更容易继续卖他们已经习惯的蓝色款。 红色龙虾农场主也可以花些功夫转产蓝色龙虾，但养出来需要时间。 但……碰巧 Marvell 的竞争对手 Nvidia 把所有红龙虾都买去给自己的餐厅用了。 最后，他们还是需要那些稀有的蓝色缅因龙虾。只不过决定自己来蒸。 这就是 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。他们大概率会直接自己去买龙虾，因为你没法凭空变出蓝龙虾。
英文原文
Pretend $SIVE, $LITE make specialized blue and red maine lobsters. Very rare, not many people can do. $POET steams the lobsters and prepares it in a ready-to-go container. $MRVL buys those lobster tails, puts it together on a plate with broccoli and steak. Then serves it at the highest price to high end customers. Marvell is famous for serving Blue lobster tails. But can always serve Red ones, and it’s easier to keep serving Blue that they’re used to. And it’s also possible for the Red lobster farmer to shift to Blue lobsters with some effort, but it takes time to raise those lobsters. But… it just so happens Marvell’s competitor Nvidia bought out all the Red Lobsters for their restaurant. In the end, they still need those rare blue Maine lobsters. But just decided to steam it themselves. That’s $POET and $MRVL situation. It’s likely they’ll just go buy lobsters directly since you can’t just spawn Blue lobsters.
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MRVL 可能直接向 SIVE 采购
@mpunaskar 这件事挺微妙的，不算完全正面，但也可能最终更正面。 我猜 $MRVL 很可能会直接向 $SIVE 采购。 直接对接超大规模云厂商，比如 Sivers + $JBL，要比中间再加一家公司正面得多。
英文原文
@mpunaskar It's nuanced, it's not positive but could end up more positive. It's very likely $MRVL just buys directly from $SIVE is my guess. Going direct to hyperscaler like Sivers + $JBL is much more positive than adding in another company in the middle.
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激光和封装是两码事
这显然不是一回事。激光和封装在光学供应链里是两个实质上不同的环节。 如果我的 thesis 失效了，我会像当初对 $XLU 和降息那样坦白说出来。 但我对 $SIVE 仍然非常看多，因为我还是认为 $MRVL 会为了 Celestial 直接从他们那里买，然后把 $POET 的封装流程垂直整合掉。
英文原文
It's clearly not. Laser and packaging are two materially different parts of optical supply chains. I would be transparent if the thesis breaks like I did with $XLU and rate cuts. But I'm incredibly bullish on $SIVE since I still think $MRVL just buys directly from them for Celestial and vertically integrates the $POET packaging process.
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LITE/COHR 产能大概率已给 NVDA
$LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经把大部分甚至全部产能分配给了 $NVDA，正如 Nvidia 去年对 EML 做的那样。 由于 Win 是 merchant foundry，想对它这么做更难，所以 $MRVL 大概率会直接去找 $SIVE，因为他们本来就符合 Celestial 的规格。
英文原文
$LITE and $COHR are probably majority/fully allocated to $NVDA after their deals. Since Nvidia did the same thing with EML last year. It's harder to do that with Win since they're a merchant foundry, so it's likely $MRVL just goes directly to $SIVE since they already fit Celestial specifications.
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MRVL 长期受益于垂直整合
@O_bhaina $MRVL 长期会从把封装流程垂直整合中受益。 我猜他们很可能只是达成一笔交易，然后直接从 $SIVE、$MTSI，也许还有 $LITE 那里买激光器。
英文原文
@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.
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LITE 更可能供给 NVDA
@adrian_jega $LITE 的大部分产能大概率是分给了 $NVDA，而不是 $MRVL。 Ayar 把 $LITE 从官网上移除了，而且在这之前他们主要是在 $SIVE、$MTSI 和 $LITE 之间多来源采购，这其实就是一个提示。 所以他们会需要别的激光合作伙伴。
英文原文
@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.
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SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
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LITE 的产能分配影响 AM D/MRVL
这不算好消息，但也没那么糟。 $LITE 的产能大概率已经分给了 $NVDA，这也是为什么 $AMD 的 CPO（大概率）会去用 $SIVE + $GFS，我是这么猜的。 $MRVL 大概会直接从 $SIVE 买货，然后多来源，可能再加上 $MTSI，并把封装层在内部设计掉。
英文原文
It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.
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MRVL 可能直接买激光器
很有可能现在 $MRVL 会直接从 $COHR、$SIVE 或 $LITE 采购激光器。 这只会让 Marvell 的 Celestial 路线图延后一些。 但我一直都预期封装这层最终会被垂直整合，只是没想到这么快。 激光 IP 要复杂得多。 激光公司为什么都值几十亿美元，是有原因的。
英文原文
Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
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POET 很可能被设计掉
@AD14977 我一直说 $POET 是最有可能在后面被设计掉的那个。 他们只是买激光器然后封装……而 $MRVL 完全可以直接去激光源头买，虽然这会让他们的路线图有些延迟。
英文原文
@AD14977 I've always said $POET is the most likely to get designed out down the road. They just buy lasers and package them... and $MRVL can just go directly to the laser source and do the same with some delays to their roadmap.
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MRVL 可能自研中介层封装
$MRVL 很可能会把那个 interposer 封装 IP 变成内部能力。我原本就预计他们会在后面把 $POET 设计出去，只是没想到这么早。 他们完全可以直接从 $LITE 或 $SIVE 这种公司买激光器，然后自己搭建整个流程。 激光设计比封装难得多。
英文原文
$MRVL will likely do that interposer packaging IP in-house. I did expect them to design out $POET down the road, just not this early. They can just buy lasers directly from someone like $LITE or $SIVE and build the process themselves. Laser design is much much harder than the packaging side of things.
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MRVL 要把封装垂直整合
@BrokeBoyCap 哦，我猜 $MRVL 是在买了 $SIVE 或 $LITE 这类公司的激光器之后，把封装流程垂直整合掉。 我之前说的就是这个，后面那一层比上游激光容易多了。
英文原文
@BrokeBoyCap Oh, I'm guessing $MRVL is vertically integrating the packaging process after buying the lasers from someone like $SIVE or $LITE. That's what I said earlier it's a lot easier to do that layer than upstream lasers.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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欧洲和美国的定价方式不同
你好，感谢更有建设性的讨论。 但除了欧洲人之外，我还真没见过谁会因为 2.5%、1300 万美元的稀释，就去抱怨一家要登陆纳斯达克的公司。 在美国……我们有些随机的比特币矿工，光为了试图转型和买 GPU，就能搞出 60 亿美元以上的稀释（超过公司一半市值）。所以对超大规模云厂商供应链来说，这点稀释其实非常小。 你也应该明白，你讨论的是美国超大规模云厂商的供应商，对吧？比如 $JBL、$MRVL……最近所有 CPO 时间表都被 $NVDA 提前了。 如果有什么的话，Sivers 是我见过最被低估的光子股票之一，而且绝对还没把上行计价进去。 美国市场通常会提前 12 个月定价，但我能理解欧洲是按过去 12 个月来看的。
英文原文
Hi, appreciate the more productive discussion. But I've never seen anyone aside from Europeans complain about 2.5% $13M dilution to get listed on NASDAQ. Over in the US... we have random Bitcoin miners with $6B+ dilution (over half the MC) just to attempt a pivot and buy GPUs. So the amount to hyperscalers supply chains is very tiny. And you do realize you're talking about US hyperscalers suppliers right? Like $JBL, $MRVL... All the CPO timelines have been accelerated by $NVDA recently. If anything Sivers is one of the most undervalued photonic stocks I've seen in the market and definitely not priced for upside yet. US markets typically price things 12 months in advance, but I understand if Europe does things previous 12 months.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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别晒自己的年内收益了
现在大家都在分享自己在 $MRVL、$INTC 到 $ARM 上涨之后的年内收益…… 我想我还是先不晒自己的，免得让别人心情好点？
英文原文
Everyone’s out there sharing new YTDs after $MRVL, $INTC to $ARM went up… I think I’ll stop sharing mine just to let others feel better?
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850M 光子公司也该长期看多
@centraly22 如果一家 8.5 亿美元市值的光子公司不是很可能在一年内向 $AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar 等客户进入量产爬坡，我不会对它有这么高的 conviction。
英文原文
@centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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SIVE/LPK 是 2027 新技术
嗯。CPO / 玻璃基板这块，可能就是 $SIVE 或 $LPK，因为它们都是 2027 年会出现的新技术变化。 我真的不觉得市场已经理解了 Sivers 在 CPO / 1.6T 光模块上会发生什么……即便我已经把它映射到 $AMD 或 $MRVL 的 CPO 项目里。 LPKF Laser 也让我觉得风险被降低了，因为我们知道玻璃核心基板是马上要来的，而且它们在很小的估值下就掌握了一个根本性卡点。
英文原文
Hmmm. Probably $SIVE or $LPK for CPO/Glass Substrates since those are emerging technological shifts in 2027. I really don't think markets understand yet what's up and coming with Sivers for CPO/1.6T optical transceivers... even if I show mapping to $AMD or $MRVL CPO programs. LPKF Laser feels de-risked since we know glass core substrates are up and coming and they hold a fundamental chokepoint at tiny valuations.
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POET 盘前大涨
哇，我漏掉了这个。 这大概就是 $POET 盘前涨 20.2% 的原因，它验证了“远超采购订单”的说法，再叠加和 $MRVL 的供应商关系。 这也会实质性传导到 $SIVE 的激光产量上。 我个人觉得市场两边都还没有完全计价进去。
英文原文
Oh wow, I missed this. That's probably why $POET is up 20.2% pre-market confirming "far in excess" of purchase orders on top of $MRVL supplier relationships. That translates materially to $SIVE laser production as well. Markets haven't fully priced in either yet imo.
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博主炫耀自己早前推荐的IQE等股票被机构买入，强调研究前瞻性。
各位，大家都曾质疑我推荐的像$IQE这样的股票。 但为什么…我发了研究报告之后，瑞银或Point72这些机构都买入了？ 不知道瑞典媒体是否在做空$SIVE，但他们意识到是谁发掘了$AXTI的价值吗？ 我非常有信心，机构可能很快会跟进，因为Sivers的激光器为$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar等公司提供动力…这些都与$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN及其他超大规模企业有关联。
英文原文
Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE. Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts? Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI? I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others… with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
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SIVE 仍有巨大上行
@scrotum_pensif 我还是认为，$SIVE 今天应该值 20 亿美元，而且如果 Ayar、$MRVL、$JBL 等在 2028 年的量产爬坡顺利，明年可以到 100 亿美元以上。 他们现在一切条件都对齐了。
英文原文
@scrotum_pensif I still think $SIVE should be valued $2B today and can hit $10B+ next year depending on volume ramp from Ayar, $MRVL, $JBL and others in 2028 They have all the stars aligned right now.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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POET 直供 MRVL
哇……$POET 今天盘前涨了 20.5%，而此前还已经涨了 19.32%。 主要原因是 CFO 的采访确认他们是 $MRVL 的直接供应商。 我想知道市场是不是已经知道上游激光供应商是谁了？（提示：$SIVE）。 https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
英文原文
Woah... $POET is up 20.5% premarket today after a 19.32% gain. Mainly after the CFO's interview confirming they're the direct supplier to $MRVL. I wonder if markets know who the upstream laser supplier is yet? (hint: $SIVE). https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
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瑞典媒体看不懂光子学
我真的笑了。这大概是我目前见过最搞笑的标题了，自从 $RPI 那次之后。 你会看到瑞典那些不懂技术的记者，对半导体 / 光子学一窍不通。 他们在分析 $SIVE，还告诉所有本地人（大多数持股者）赶紧卖掉，因为它只是个“meme”。 他们不懂围绕即将到来的 $JBL 1.6T 或 $MRVL CPO 放量的超大规模云厂商认证周期吗？ 也不懂它刚刚被验证为 $GFS 生态里的激光供应商，而且 $AMD 正在推动新的 CPO 需求吗？ > 一定是 meme。只能按 2025 年 TTM 资产负债表和旧营收预测来估值，对吧？ 至少这种波动有助于在明年 CPO / 1.6T 关键拐点之前，把控制权转给美国投资者 / 机构。
英文原文
I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI. You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics. Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme". Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp? Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand? > Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right? At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.
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本地人抛售对机构有利
他们其实是在帮助美国机构，鼓励本地投资者卖出。 这原本是一只主要由本地散户持有的股票。它最终只会把控制权转给西方机构。 我不太明白“meme stock”怎么会去支撑 $JBL 1.6T、Ayar、$MRVL 以及其他 CPO / 光子项目，哈哈。
英文原文
They're actually doing good work for US institutions encouraging local investors to sell. It was a majority retail-locally owned stock. It will just transfer control over to institutions in the West. Not sure what "meme stock" powers $JBL 1.6T, Ayar, $MRVL, and other CPO/photonics programs lol.
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连续催化都对 SIVE 有利
这真的是巧合，催化剂一个接一个（$JBL）之后是纳斯达克上市，然后是（$GOOGL + $MRVL），再然后是（$GFS），再然后是（$GFS + $AMD）。 再加上 $NVDA 在到处投资 CPO。 我只是 OFC 之后才做多，没想到后面会有这么多事情，哈哈。
英文原文
It's legit coincidence that it's catalyst ( $JBL ) after catalyst (Nasdaq listing) after catalyst ( $GOOGL + $MRVL ), after catalyst ( $GFS ), after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD ). Alongside $NVDA investing into CPO everywhere. I just timed my long after OFC but did not expect all of this lol.
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半导体这波太夸张
哇，如果你在那段伊朗波动里拿住了，从 $INTC 到 $MRVL，很多半导体名字都经历了改变人生级别的上涨。 很少有 1000 亿美元以上的大盘股能在一个月里涨 50% 到 70%。 你拿住了吗，匿名网友？ https://t.co/PAj6MmycqI
英文原文
Wow this was like a life-changing rally for many in semis from $INTC to $MRVL if you held through Iran volatility. Not often do large caps $100B+ move 50-70% in 1 month time. Did you hold anon? https://t.co/PAj6MmycqI
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GOOGL ASIC 新闻对 SIVE 不够计价
我很惊讶 $SIVE 没有因为 $GOOGL 和 Marvell 的 ASIC 新闻而涨得更高。 甚至连 $MRVL 隔夜都涨了 6.24%+。 市场大概还不知道上游激光源到底来自哪里，对吧？ https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
英文原文
Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet? https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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称$700M流入AI供应链股票，建议用基本面分析等待市值兑现。
哪有什么回调——$700M正流入$JBL、J($MRVL)、Ayar、O-Net和其他供应链。人们也忘了$SIVE是芯片法案(CHIPS Act)的受益者，后续很可能还有更多跟进。最好基于前瞻增长做基本面分析来推导市值(MC)，然后等待逻辑兑现，而不是盯着K线图。
英文原文
What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains? People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups. Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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MRVL 和 GOOGL 更关键
@StocksAREnuts 我在 $80 的时候就看好 $MRVL，直到现在也是，主要是因为 $MSFT Maia。 但如果 $GOOGL 成为 2028 年之后有更强收入可见性的客户，那帮助也很大。 它们都还是基于 CPO / AI 光子学那条线。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts I liked $MRVL back at $80 and even here, mainly because of $MSFT Maia. But having $GOOGL as a likely customer for revenue visibility past 2028 helps a lot too. They're really milking that Celestial acquisition.
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Marvell与Google洽谈TPU开发，Sivers有望成为光子光源供应商
$MRVL正在洽谈为$GOOGL开发TPU（张量处理单元），涵盖两种不同的芯片型号。 如果谈判顺利，$SIVE很可能成为Google供应链的光源供应商。 尤其因为其定制ASIC（专用集成电路）可能推动Celestial IP在MPU（微处理器单元）架构中实现规模扩展（光子结构，Photonic Fabric）。这与$POET和Sivers两家公司的布局都相吻合。 定制ASIC需要数年时间，因此来自Google的实质性营收可能要等到2028年下半年。 供应商可能采用多元采购策略，但拥有Google作为潜在终端客户是一个超越2028年的结构性多年催化剂。 市场通常具有前瞻性。
英文原文
$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models. High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well. Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers. Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028. Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028. Markets are typically forward looking.
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking
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700M 市值的 MRVL/JBL 激光供应商很少见
当然会了？你什么时候见过一家具备 $MRVL 和 $JBL 激光供应商地位的公司，市值才 7 亿美元？ 其他激光公司，比如 $MTSI 和 $LITE，现在都在几十亿美元市值区间，而 $SIVE 只有大约 7.2 亿美元。 至于 $ALRIB，既是 $MSFT Quantum 的供应商，又是 $IQE / Fujitsu 量子点业务的供应商，市值只有 3.5 亿美元，这也极其罕见。 你得知道自己持有什么，这样就不用问这种问题了。
英文原文
Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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质疑 LWLG 估值，拿 Shunsin 和 SIVEF 做对比。
抱歉，但我越来越确信 $LWLG 就是光子领域里的当前 $RGTI。 我完全不懂……他们怎么会值 18 亿美元。 鸿海的光学业务 Shunsin，给 $NVDA 做 CPO 的封装、组装和测试…… 估值反而只有 14 亿美元？ 而 $SIVEF 作为 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的激光源，前几天估值还只有它们的三分之一？ 感觉像是傻钱机构因为一份开发测试协议，买错了名字。 我没有持仓，只是觉得困惑。
英文原文
Sorry but I’m convinced $LWLG is the current $RGTI of photonics. I have zero clue… How they’re valued at $1.8B. Foxconn’s optical arm Shunsin, for $NVDA CPO packaging, assembly, and testing… Is valued less at $1.4B? $SIVEF, the laser source for $JBL and $MRVL was 1/3rd their valuation earlier this week? Feels like dumb money institutions went into the wrong name off a development test agreement. I have no open positions, just confused
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高确信看好 SIVE，NASDAQL 上市在即。
@jonnylee47 我对 $SIVE 的信心很高，尤其是现在这个价位。 你很少会看到 $JBL 或 $MRVL 的激光供应商只值 7 亿美元。再加上很快就会在 NASDAQ 上市，美国机构资金会进来。
英文原文
@jonnylee47 High conviction on $SIVE, especially at current levels. You don't see the laser supplier of $JBL or $MRVL sitting at $700m every day. Also it helps there's NASDAQ listing for US institutional inflows soon.
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解释 Fittech 与 Shunsin、Win/Sivers 的供应链去向。
@KentTian Fittech 在 $TSM Coupe 生态里，Shunsin 是鸿海的光学封装。 Win / Sivers 是 $JBL、$MRVL，还有 Ayar（也许还有 AlChip 等）。 它们最终都会流向 hyperscaler，只是路径和终点不同。
英文原文
@KentTian Fittech is in $TSM Coupe ecosystem, Shunsin is Foxconn optical packaging. Win/Sivers is $JBL, $MRVL, and Ayar (maybe AlChip and others). They all end up to hyperscalers, just in different ways and different ones.
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极度看好 SIVE，认为其很快会升至 20 亿市值。
我对 $SIVE 的信心真的太高了，天啊。你现在手里有 $JBL、$MRVL 的激光供应商，市值只有 6 亿美元。 他们又要在 NASDAQ 上市，让所有机构投资者都终于能进场。 而这次融资稀释才 2.5%…… 这执行力和管理层真的太强了。
英文原文
I just have such high conviction on $SIVE, holy ****. You have the laser supplier for $JBL, $MRVL: at $600m. They're getting listed on NASDAQ where all the institutional investors can finally enter. And their dilution to do this? 2.5%... That's just amazing execution and management.
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强调 SIVE 正在推进纳斯达克上市，像下一只 LITE。
$SIVE 正在推进美国 NASDAQ 上市，路透已经报了。 欢迎来到美国，Sivers。 我之前说过，基于今天的基本面，Sivers 现在看起来很快就应该值 20 亿美元以上。 而且一旦在 NASDAQ 上市，美国机构很可能会开始涌入这家给 $MRVL 和 $JBL 供货的激光供应商。 这发生在今天一轮非常利好的 2.5% 融资之后，融资对象是新的“国际机构投资者”，大概率是为了支付上市所需的监管 / 审计成本。 “参与定向配股的投资者包括少数瑞典和国际机构投资者及其他合格投资者。” 我们大概率会看到消息推动的近乎抛物线式上涨。 仅仅过去三天： -> $JBL 1.6T 使用 $SIVE -> $SIVE 新的美国 / 国际机构投资者 -> $SIVE 看起来要在 NASDAQ 上市。 我们正在见证下一只 $LITE 的诞生。
英文原文
$SIVE executing US NASDAQ listing from Reuters. Welcome to America Sivers. I said Sivers looks like it should be valued at $2B+ soon based on today's fundamentals. And US institutions will likely be piling into the laser supplier for $MRVL and $JBL once it's on NASDAQ. This comes after a highly bullish 2.5% raise today from new "international institutional investors" to likely fund regulatory/audit requirements for the listing. "The investors in the Directed Share Issue comprise of a limited number of Swedish and international institutional and other qualified investors" We’ll likely going to see a parabolic ride up from the news. In just the last three days: -> $JBL 1.6T to use $SIVE -> $SIVE new US/international institutional investors -> $SIVE looks to be listed on NASDAQ. We're witnessing the birth of the next $LITE.
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强调供应链映射前瞻性远胜基本面回看。
不，他们的基本面并不一样。这就是大多数散户不理解、也最让人沮丧的地方。 $SIVE 真的拿到了 $JBL 这个 hyperscaler 客户，O-Net 也在服务亚洲 hyperscaler。 然后 $MRVL 从 $NVDA 拿到了 20 亿美元，还给出了 Celestial CPO 放量的指引（这会传导到 $SIVE）。 $POET 也给了指引，并表示下半年会开始放量交付，比预期更早。 ASE 甚至直接预计 2026 年下半年 CPO 放量，远早于预期。 所以如果我们把激光环节的未来盈利增长往前映射，它应该会加速很多。 市场定价的是未来增长，不是回头看 2025 年的基本面。
英文原文
No, they didn't have the same fundamentals. This is what majority of retail investors don't understand and it's so frustrating. $SIVE literally landed $JBL as a hyperscaler client, and O-Net which serves Asian hyperscalers. Then $MRVL ended up getting $2B from $NVDA and gave projections on their Celestial CPO ramp (which trickles down to $SIVE). $POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected. ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected. So if we map forward earnings growth from lasers, it should accelerate a lot. Markets price in future growth, not backward 2025 fundamentals.
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作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
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认为 SIVE 的 2B 估值判断是真的。
我真的不是随口说说我认为 $SIVE 今天能值 20 亿美元。 你什么时候还能找到一家对 $MRVL、$JBL 和 hyperscaler 供应链都至关重要的激光供应商…… 而市值只有 6.2 亿美元？ 找不到……因为世界上本来就没几家。 而在 hyperscaler 供应链里，像 $LITE 到 $MTSI 这些名字都已经是几十亿美元市值了……
英文原文
I really meant it when I thought $SIVE could be valued at $2B today. When do you ever find a critical laser supplier to $MRVL, $JBL, and Hyperscaler supply chains... At $620m MC? You can't... Since there's only a few in the world. And the rest in hyperscaler supply chains from $LITE to $MTSI are in the tens of billions...
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认为 SIVE 若是美股会值 20 亿以上，并有清晰上行路径。
我其实觉得如果 $SIVE 作为美国公司挂牌，今天就应该交易在 20 亿美元以上市值……而不是等到今年晚些时候。 因为我不太明白： - $LWLG 为什么会交易到 3.5 倍以上的估值 - 做自己激光器封装的公司，估值却只有它的 5-6 倍 - 像从 $MTSI 到 $LITE 这些激光公司，估值都在几十亿美元区间。 而 Sivers 又是通过 $MRVL、$JBL、O-Net 等进入 hyperscaler 供应链，而不是只依赖单一客户。 全球公开上市的 AI 数据中心激光公司其实也没多少。 所以它要么会成为 $AVGO 或 $MRVL 很想纵向整合上游的高优先级收购标的。 要么它可以走 $LITE 那种路线：从 17 美元涨到 800 美元，并通过 IP 收购把 ELS / optical transceiver stack 的下游 TAM 扩大。 当然，这取决于公司到底有多激进，但我就是觉得自从我发 thesis 后，没人真正注意到瑞典这个激光供应商。 可能只是需要给美国上市一点耐心，我几乎可以确定美国机构会像对 $IQE 那样感兴趣。 DD 周期通常在他们读完我的 thesis 后会持续几周，但我看得到未来几年从这里走到 100 亿美元以上市值的清晰路径。
英文原文
I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not later this year. Since I’m not sure how: - $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation - packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation. - laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions. And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer. There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either. So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream. Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions. Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post. Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE. DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.
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看好$SIVE被机构买入，估值被低估，有望复制$LITE走势
对$SIVE非常有信心，因为会有机构投资者进来。 它是$MRVL、$JBL等公司的激光器供应商。 当它被设计进超大规模数据中心供应链、规模约4.3亿美元时，估值脱节完全说不通。 再看未来几年共封装光学(CPO)和1.6T收发器的增长，简直疯狂。 这看起来是下一个$LITE的开端，我认为机构投资者可能因为瑞典上市而参与较晚。
英文原文
Pretty confident about $SIVE regarding institutions coming in next. Laser supplier for $MRVL, $JBL, and a few others. Valuation disconnect makes no sense when they’re designed into hyperscaler supply chains at ~$430M. And you look at CPO and 1.6T transceiver ramp over next few years, it’s insanity. It looks like the start of the next $LITE over the next year, imo institutions probably late to the party due to Swedish listing.
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回顾自己多次抢跑机构的 thesis 命中。
我不是早就告诉过你们，散户完全可以抢在机构前面吗，anon？？ -> 两个月后，Point72 正在高位猛烈买入 $IQE…… 在我那篇关于 latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE 供应商的 thesis 之后。 -> Apollo 真的把 NSG 买下来了，也就是我指出的 $TSM COUPE 玻璃供应商。 -> 我最近还找到了很多其他名字，比如 $SIVE，它是 $MRVL / $JBL 的激光供应商，而 Riber 是 $MSFT 的未知量子供应商（还借助了一位朋友）。 我就是喜欢把信息发现 / 综合整理民主化，先给散户，而不是卖给机构或者藏在 2 万美元以上的付费墙后面。 股票本来就是真正的正和游戏，散户这次终于能第一次领先。
英文原文
Didn’t I tell you all it’s possible retail can frontrun institutions anon?? -> Point72 is aggressively buying up $IQE 2 months later at ATHs... After my latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE supplier thesis post. -> Apollo literally bought out NSG, the $TSM COUPE glass provider I identified. -> And I've identified many others like $SIVE, the $MRVL / $JBL supplier to Riber the unknown quantum supplier to $MSFT (with the help of a friend) recently. I happen to like democratizing information discovery/synthesis to retail investors at the very beginning… Instead of selling analysis to institutions or behind $20000+ paywalls. Stocks are genuinely positive sum where retail can get the lead for the first time.
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说信息发现会吸引注意力，不是发帖的人。
我有这么强吗？ 我觉得大概只是信息综合与发现而已。要是我发一篇关于一家纸巾公司 8 倍市盈率的帖子，没人会在意。 但当 $SIVE 是 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的光源，市值只有大约 4 亿美元…… 而且只交易像 $LWLG 这种更投机名字估值的四分之一…… 而其他像 $MTSI 或 $LITE 之类做 CW DFB 的公司市值都在几十亿美元时…… 最后吸引大家注意力的，是信息本身，而不是发信息的人。
英文原文
am i that powerful? pretty sure it's just information synthesis + discovery. If I posted about a napkin company trading at 8 p/e, nobody would care. When $SIVE is the light source for $JBL and $MRVL at ~400m... and trades at like 1/4th the valuation of something more speculative like $LWLG. while all the other CW DFB companies like $MTSI or $LITE are all in the tens of billions. Information ends up drawing people's attention, not the person.
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认为英伟达正在强力推动 CPO，相关时间点比市场预期更早。
$NVDA 正在非常、非常强力地推动 CPO。 从 $MRVL、$LITE 和 $COHR 的投入就能看出来。 不过有意思的是，CPO 的时间表也比预期早得多。 最新报道： “$ASE 据称将在 2026 年动工建设六座新工厂，CPO 量产预计将于今年开始” “他还首次透露，CPO 的量产预计将在今年启动” 现在可能正是提前布局 CPO 相关标的的好时机，比如 $SIVE（激光器）、Win Semi（晶圆代工）、$TSEM（晶圆代工）、$SOI（衬底）以及其他相关公司，在真正放量前先埋伏。 需求曲线会一路指数级上升，直到 2029 年以后，我相信很多预测都会被打穿。 总之，我之前在 OFC/GTC 前就一直说要提前布局 CPO / SiPh 标的。 结果时间点上我又判断对了？ 现在看起来 CPO 的放量要从 2026 年下半年开始，准备好吧。
英文原文
$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard. As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR. But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected. New report: " $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year " "He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year" Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up. The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections. But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC. Turned out I was right on timing again? CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
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认为 Win Semi 定增稀释约 9.4%，但结合历史先例和大客户逻辑，整体偏利好。
所以这次定增大概是通过发行 4000 万股新股，带来约 9.4% 的稀释，主体是 Win Semi（3105）。 换成别的股票我会很谨慎……但上一次 Win 这么做的时候，$AVGO 买入了 Win Semi 的股份。 而且博通后来成了他们的主力客户。 这次也许会是像 $NVDA 这样的一级客户，考虑到他们最近对 $MRVL、$LITE、$COHR 的投入。 另外还有 3 年持有期。 我之前说过，Win Semi 是光子学、人形机器人和太空（比如 SpaceX）领域的基础性公司，它很可能还会获得另一位一级客户并长期合作。 这很讲究细节，但实际上是偏利好的。
英文原文
So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105). Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi. And Broadcom became their lead customer. Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR. There's also a 3 year holding period. I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term. It's nuanced but actually bullish.
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称 Sivers 的激光业务被低估，是 Marvell 和 Jabil 的激光供应商。
@yy1625066197303 激光器就是在狂飙，基本上就是这样。我很喜欢 $SIVE 现在得到更多关注，感觉它作为 $MRVL、$JBL 的激光供应商被严重低估了。
英文原文
@yy1625066197303 Lasers go brrr basically, love $SIVE is getting more attention, feels extremely underrated as the $MRVL, $JBL laser supplier
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分析光子学超级周期下的CPO/激光技术路线机遇，SIVE作为小市值激光标的具有独特供应链位置。
光子学“超级周期”有许多细微的架构变化。如果你在去年错过了$LITE，今年可以通过CPO/激光来抢先布局下一个周期。$SIVE是我相对小众的激光敞口标的。他们参与在$JBL的1.6T LRO、$MRVL的Celestial、O-Net到超大规模业者。这对于一家市值约3.5亿美元的公司来说极为罕见。如果要我类比：类似于$AAOI在2025年的情况，或现在的$AEHR——正处于批量生产前的资质认证周期。正因如此，散户只看今天财务数据（负eps或capex支出）时会误解公司情况。而且与批量生产/capex支出相关的dfb激光扩产执行不确定性，已通过Win Semi被去风险化。然而看起来从2026年下半年开始会持续爬坡到2029年以后。可能在时间上稍早一些……但我认为这是对未来即将到来的趋势的一个不错研判。稀释是真实风险。但很多担忧已经被定价到约3.5亿美元市值里，尤其当$AVGO或AlChip这样的公司可以收购$SIVE用于垂直整合或干扰Marvell的CPO计划时。
英文原文
There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers. $SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure. They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers. Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company. If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume. Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend. And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi. However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026. Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming. Dilution is a real risk. But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
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判断 SIVE / Win 会受新一轮 CW 激光周期带动。
$SIVE / Win 会受 2027 年下一轮架构超级周期里的 CW 激光推动。我现在只是像去年布局 $LITE 那样，提前在 H1 先埋伏。 你大概也知道，他们已经进了 $MRVL 的 Celestial、$JBL 的 1.6T LRO，以及 O-Net，所以到 2029 年会有很大的放量。 像 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 这些则是当前的光收发器周期。
英文原文
$SIVE / Win benefits from CW lasers from the next architectural supercycle in 2027. I'm just frontrunning that now H1 like $LITE last year. You already kinda know they're in $MRVL Celestial, $JBL 1.6T LRO, and O-Net so thats huge ramp into 2029. Stuff like $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight are current optical transceiver cycles.
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认为光源供应商SIVE为MRVL和JBL供货，市值被低估至3.5亿美元。
我还是认为 $SIVE 值得投资。一家为 $MRVL 和 $JBL 提供光源的公司，市值不应该只有 3.5 亿美元。他们只需要在纳斯达克上市就行了。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 I still think it's $SIVE. A company that's the light source for $MRVL and $JBL should be valued more than $350m imo. They just need to get listed on Nasdaq.
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亚马逊因Anthropic模型基于Trainium训练消息反弹，带动MRVL、AAOI等相关股
顺便解释一下你们可能想知道的$AMZN今天为何反弹：新消息显示Anthropic的Mythos及其最新模型很可能是基于Amazon Trainium训练的。这对亚马逊生态系统来说意义重大，从$MRVL到$AAOI都受益于Anthropic。就像今年早些时候谷歌TPU生态因Gemini而反弹，包括$LITE一样。
英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why $AMZN rallied today: New news that Anthropic Mythos and their latest models were likely trained on Amazon Trainium. This is big for Amazon’s ecosystem from $MRVL to $AAOI due to Anthropic. Just like how Google’s TPU ecosystem rallied earlier this year like $LITE from Gemini.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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建议在下一次回调中考虑更大市值的高增长半导体公司。
@NabQ321 问得好！$AAOI、$AEHR 是两只 beta 极高、增长极快的股票。 下一次回调时，也许可以看看 $COHR、$TSEM、$SMTC、$MRVL、$INTC 或 $FN 这些更大的公司？ 像 AOI 或 AEHR 这样的公司其实非常稀少。
英文原文
@NabQ321 Good question! $AAOI, $AEHR are two extremely high beta, fast growth stocks. Maybe some larger companies like $COHR, $TSEM, $SMTC, $MRVL, $INTC or $FN on the next drop? Companies like AOI or AEHR are pretty rare to come by.
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把 COHR 和 MRVL 视为“啥都做”的多头，认为未来一年仍有较大上行。
我觉得 $COHR 和 $MRVL 是那种“啥都做”的两只多头。 如果你当面问别人他们具体是干什么的，很多人其实说不出来。 $NVDA？GPU。 $INTC？代工。 Marvell？不知道。 Coherent？也不知道。 它们就是半导体界的 Deloitte。 这两只在未来一年都应该是不错的、还挺赚钱的多头。 也许不是 200% 的涨幅，但 50-100% 应该是合理的。
英文原文
I feel like $COHR and $MRVL are the two "They Do Everything" longs. That nobody actually knows what they do if you ask them in public. $NVDA? GPUs. $INTC? Foundry. Marvell? No clue. Coherent? No clue. They're the Deloitte of Semis. Both are really solid profitable longs over the next year. Probably not 200% gains but 50-100% seem reasonable here.
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认为 SIVE 的目标价远高于当前市值，作为激光供应商被严重低估。
@HeinzelAI 是的，入场点很重要，但长期来看我觉得没那么关键。 我个人认为 $SIVE 在未来一年可以涨 1000%+……我真不明白，为 $MRVL 和 $JBL 提供激光器的公司怎么才值 3.5 亿美元？
英文原文
@HeinzelAI Yeah entry point is important but long term it doesn’t matter imo. I personally think $SIVE can 1000%+ in the next year… not sure how the laser supplier to $MRVL and $JBL is valued at $350m?
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认为 SIVE 在 CW 激光赛道被低估，且随着 CPO 和光学扩产，估值有望抬升。
当你把从 $COHR 到 $AAOI 的 CW 激光龙头公司名单都过一遍时， 就会发现 $SIVE 以 3 亿美元市值还站在那里，真的很夸张……其他玩家几乎都已经是几十亿市值了。 而它还是 $JBL 1.6T LRO 光收发器和大约 $MRVL Celestial 光子项目的光源供应商（如今还受到 $NVDA 20 亿美元投资的加速）。 从 Furukawa 到 Yuanjie，整个行业最近都被重新定价了。 但我确实认为市场漏掉了这只，因为他们预计从 H2 开始量产爬坡（来自 $POET 的业绩提示），而 CPO 和光学扩产会带来多年指数级 TAM 扩张。 下行风险在于资产负债表，但我认为他们的光子业务实体未来大概率会在纳斯达克上市，而且作为超大规模客户的光源供应商，价值远高于当前估值。 而且这很可能会在不久后带来估值溢价。 我们看看结果是不是这样吧。
英文原文
When you go through the list of the leading CW laser companies from $COHR to $AAOI. It’s very impressive $SIVE stands out at $300m still… compared to the every other player in the billions. This is despite being the light source for $JBL 1.6T LRO optical transceivers and ~ $MRVL Celestial photonics program (now accelerated by $NVDA $2B investment). The sector from Furukawa to Yuanjie has been re-rated recently. But I do think markets missed this one, as they start volume ramp est. H2 (from $POET earnings) with multi year exponential TAM expansion from CPO and optical scale up. Downside risk is balance sheet, but I do think the likely Nasdaq listing for their photonics entity + scaling as the hyperscaler light source far exceeds current valuations. And will likely drive valuation premiums in a matter of time. We’ll see if this turns out right or not.
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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分析$POET低风险高现金特征及作为$MRVL独家供应商的投资逻辑
这事很微妙。$POET 下行风险低，因为大家都已经被稀释过了。 所以他们的现金储备约$4亿对比市值，缓冲了下行风险。 所以企业价值(EV)约$4-5亿，这对作为$MRVL独家供应商来说很划得来，即使几年后被技术替代。我还没看到他们有更多主要客户的多元化，这令人担忧。但如果他们真能轻松做成几十亿的公司，其他人可以去冒这个风险。 如果你看我个人选的股票，像$AEHR（也许还有$GOOGl、$AMD、$INTC，以及另一个光收发器客户）。 像$SIVE 一样，同样的$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar -> Alchip，以及其他市值更低的公司。
英文原文
It's nuanced. $POET has low downside risk because everyone already got diluted. So their cash balance sheet is extremely high ~$400m vs. MC, which cushions downside risk. So EV is like $400-500m which is great for the sole source $MRVL Celestial supplier, even if they get engineered out in a few years. I haven't seen them have more lead customer diversification yet, which is concerning. But if they do easily few billion company, and other ppl can take that risk. If you look at the names I personally pick like $AEHR ( maybe $GOOGl, $AMD, $INTC, and another optical transceiver customer). With stuff like $SIVE, it's the same $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar -> Alchip, and others at a lower MC.
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认为现在还很早，自己更偏好少数纯标的和更稳健的名字。
还不算晚进场，实际上还非常早，正处在下一个拐点的起点。 如果让我现在选两只更小、更纯的标的，我个人会喜欢 $SIVE 和 $AEHR，再加一只 $AAOI 也许不错。 更稳一点的话，Win、$SOI、$MRVL 看起来都很扎实？ 可选名字其实很多……
英文原文
Not really late too the party, it’s extremely early and at the beginning of the next inflection point. I personally like $SIVE, $AEHR if I had to pick two more smaller purer play companies around now, maybe throw in $AAOI on the next drop. For safer, Win, $SOI, $MRVL seem solid? Quite a lot of names…
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说自己很喜欢 MRVL，但 Cramer 让自己不敢大仓位。
@Grooovy718 我真的挺喜欢 $MRVL 的，但唯一让我不敢重仓的就是 Jim Cramer……
英文原文
@Grooovy718 I genuinely like $MRVL but the only thing keeping me away from larger concentration is Jim Cramer…
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AEHR因拿下光学收发器大客户而上涨，若进入量产阶段股价或超$60
这不是贪婪，这是基本面。$AEHR价格上涨是因为他们拿下了光学收发器(optical transceivers)领域的领导者。这可能是$AVGO、$LITE、$COHR、$MRVL、$CSCO或其他公司。市场是前瞻性的。以我之见，如果它进入像$AAOI那样的批量订单增长阶段，股价将会超越60美元。
英文原文
It's not greed, it's fundamentals. $AEHR went up in price is because they landed the leader in optical transcivers. This could be $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR, $MRVL, $CSCO or others. Markets are forward looking. IMO it will blow away $60+ if it shifts into mass order ramp like $AAOI earnings.
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批评 0DTE 亏光故事，强调要学会长期复利而不是一日赌局。
$RDDT 现在最火的故事就是这个： -> 有人拿着 30 万美元起步 -> 在 2025 年 4 月底部靠个股运气赚到了钱 -> 账户做到了 300 万美元，还说自己实现了财务自由 -> 然后拿去玩 $SPY 的 0DTE 期权 -> 最后把 300 万变成了 5 万。 通常我会讲一个吸取教训的故事，但这次真的只是蠢。 真心别再碰 0dte 期权了。 就算他把钱全仓押到 Jim Cramer 最喜欢的股票 $MRVL，上几年也许都能变成 600 万。 世代财富最好的教训是看看 Nancy Pelosi。 如果你真要做期权，就看看他们怎么在 $AVGO 到 $NVDA 上长期复利。 不是玩一天的窗口。
英文原文
The most viral story on $RDDT right now: -> Guy started with $300,000 -> Gets lucky with individual names at April 2025 bottom -> Runs it up to $3,000,000 and claims they had financial freedom -> Proceeds to do 0DTE options on $SPY -> Turned $3M -> $50k. Usually I give a lesson learned type story but this is just stupid? Legit stop touching 0dte options. Even if they full ported it into Jim Cramer’s favorite stock $MRVL, probably would have been $6M in 2-3 years. The best lesson of generational wealth is looking at Nancy Pelosi. If you do options, look at how their on $AVGO to $NVDA keep compounding over time. Not one day windows.
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按类别列出自己喜欢的几只名字。
@FranGGlez 哦，每个类别来一只： 1. $MRVL 2. $SIVE 3. Win 4. $SOI 5. $LITE
英文原文
@FranGGlez Oh one from each category: 1. $MRVL 2. $SIVE 3. Win 4. $SOI 5. $LITE
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认为激光瓶颈下很难选赢家，Sivers 以较低市值却进入大客户路线图而很有吸引力。
100% 是激光。 我个人不会往下游去做组装之类的业务。 但在激光瓶颈下，真的很难在 Luxnet、Furukawa、Sumitomo、$SIVE、$MTSI、$LITE、$SMTC（在 Heico 收购 CW 之后）这些公司里挑出唯一赢家…… 不过我觉得 Sivers 特别有吸引力，因为它们已经进入了 $JBL 的 1.6T 路线图，以及 $MRVL 的 CPO 路线图，而市值才大约 2.9 亿美元。
英文原文
100% lasers. I personally wouldn't go downstream into assembly and others. But with the laser chokepoint it's really hard to pick a winner between stuff like Luxnet, Furukawa, Sumitomo, $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE, $SMTC (after heico cw acqusition) and others... But I found Sivers to be really compelling since they're in $JBL 1.6T + $MRVL CPO roadmap at ~$290m MC.
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引用 Lightcounting 认为光互连到 2030 年可到 1000 亿美元，并列出自己偏好的链条标的。
Lightcounting："这不是笔误" 到 2030 年，光互连市场很有可能从 2025 年的约 190 亿美元增长到 1000 亿美元以上。 如果你想看我最喜欢的名字： 复合型：$MRVL、$SMTC CW 激光：$SIVE、$MTSI、$AAOI 晶圆代工：$TSEM、Win Semi 衬底 / 外延：$AXTI、$SOI、$IQE 黄金标准：$LITE、$COHR 下一轮 TAM 扩张的乘数，主要由 CPO / Scale Up 驱动，而这大多由 SiPh 和外部 CW 激光推动。
英文原文
Lightcounting: "This is not a typo" Optical interconnects has a reasonable chance to reach $100B+ by 2030 from ~$19B (2025). If you're looking for my favorite names: Compounders: $MRVL, $SMTC CW Lasers: $SIVE, $MTSI, $AAOI Foundries $TSEM, Win Semi Substrates/Epitaxy: $AXTI, $SOI, $IQE Gold Standard: $LITE, $COHR The next TAM expansion multiplier is CPO/Scale Up, largely driven by SiPh and external CW lasers.
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认为 AEHR 在小市值下被低估，正被多家超大客户做资格认证。
$AEHR 在大约 11 亿美元市值下看起来极有吸引力。 Aehr 开始让我想起早期的 $TER，又有点像财报前的 $AAOI。 如果把时间线和猜测客户列出来： 2 月 11 日：Sonoma 为超大客户的 AI ASIC 处理器拿到生产胜利。（大概率是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$META） - 可能是谷歌？Aehr 收购了 Incal，而 Incal 曾被猜测会被谷歌用于 TPU。 2 月 26 日：来自 AI 主力客户的 1400 万美元。（大概率是 $AMD、$NVDA） - 这里更像是 $AMD，用于 Instinct MI300/MI400。 3 月 3 日：一台 FOX-XP 系统对应的主硅光客户。（大概率是 $INTC siph） - 很可能 $INTC 就是他们的主客户。 3 月 31 日：来自一家新的大型硅光客户的首单。（大概率是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$CSCO） - 新客户（排除了 Intel），大概是这些正转向 800G/1.6T 硅光收发器的公司之一。 （这些都属于非常保密的 BOM 级推测） 不管怎样，这条时间线对 $AEHR 来说就是在不断加码。 也许就是下一次财报。也可能再过两季。 但感觉量产订单只是时间问题。
英文原文
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
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认为大多数人根本不知道 Celestial 及其供应链。
@Akskn7 我觉得 99% 的人甚至都不知道 Celestial 是什么，更别说他们的组件供应商了。 不过他们可能知道 $MRVL，主要是因为 Jim Cramer，但即便那也算比较小众。
英文原文
@Akskn7 I don’t think 99% of people even know what Celestial is let alone their component suppliers. They might know $MRVL because of Jim Cramer though but even that is considered niche.
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认为市场终于开始意识到，Nvidia 投资 Marvell 背后对应的是上游光子链重估。
市场终于开始意识到的事情： 下游：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 的 Celestial CPO 项目投资了 20 亿美元： $POET（Celestial 的 interposers）：财报里说今年要出货 3 万台光引擎。 $SIVE 是 Poet 和 Celestial 在 Marvell 光子路线图中近中期的光源。 Win Semi 是 InP CW 激光生产的晶圆代工。 而更上游的还有：$SOI / $AXTI 这些衬底，以及 $IQE 的外延片。 这就是下一轮光子学超级周期的起点，而且估值便宜得离谱。 而且这发生得比市场和机构在 2026 年预期的还要早，Nvidia 正在抢跑整条转变路径。 99.9% 的人只看到了 Marvell 下游的变化，但还没意识到上游的供应冲击会在哪里发生。
英文原文
Something that markets are finally starting to realize: Downstream: $NVDA invested $2B into $MRVL Celestial CPO program: $POET (Celestial’s Interposers): To ship 30,000 optical engines to ship this year from earnings today. $SIVE is the light source of Poet and Celestial for near/mid term Marvell photonics roadmap. Win Semi is the foundry for InP CW laser production. And even more upstream: $SOI / $AXTI for substrates and $IQE for epiwafers. This is the very start of the next photonics supercycle, at dirt cheap valuations. And it’s happening earlier than markets and institutions expected in 2026, with Nvidia frontrunning this entire shift. 99.9% of people see the changes happening downstream with Marvell, but don’t realize yet where the supply shocks will happen upstream.
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认为 Nvidia 给 Marvell 20 亿美元投资后，更看好 Celestial 生态。
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA 给 $MRVL 20 亿美元，确实让我对 Celestial 生态里的 $POET 和 $SIVE 更看多了一点。
英文原文
@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA handing $2B to $MRVL does make me a bit more bullish on the celestial ecosystem like $POET and $SIVE.
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认为市场低估了 Nvidia 投资下游后带来的上游供应冲击。
市场漏掉了 Nvidia 投资的含义： 今天它向光学领域的 $COHR 投了 20 亿美元。 向光学领域的 $LITE 投了 20 亿美元。 今天又向光学领域的 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 Nvidia 去年就用过同样的剧本。 他们意识到 800G/1.6T 可插拔器件的推进会耗尽全球 EML 供给。 所以他们接触了 $LITE、$COHR、Sumitomo，并提前预定了大部分产能。 我们已经在他们股价里看到了反映：自从那轮严重供给紧张以来，$LITE 已经涨了 955%。 现在我们看到同样的剧本在过去一个月里再次开始。 只是这次是一个新的架构。 而且这些交易都包含了几十亿美元的采购承诺和未来产能权利。 所以……下一步是什么？CW / EML 和 CPO 瓶颈。 Nvidia 只是更喜欢投资下游玩家，但真正的供应紧张发生在上游。 来自 $MTSI、$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR、Furukawa 和 Sumitomo 的激光供应商都在全速运转。 Win Semi、$TSEM、$GFS 这些晶圆代工也大概率在满负荷运转。 整条供应链都会受益（比如 $AEHR 的测试、$SOI 的衬底）。 但从晶圆代工到 ELS / CW 激光瓶颈的这两个环节，可能会是最大的受益者。 Nvidia 是下一轮发生什么的最大信号；现在只是等拐点到来的时间而已。
英文原文
The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.
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抱歉 MRVL 持有人。
****。抱歉 $MRVL 的持有人们。
英文原文
****. Sorry $MRVL holders. https://t.co/JMZ16QJRsL
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认为 POET 受益，但 SIVE 对 Nvidia 和 Marvell 的 Celestial 更关键。
@marioyep5 是的，$POET 确实是受益者，但 $SIVE 作为光源，对 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的 Celestial 现在来说非常关键。
英文原文
@marioyep5 Yes, $POET is beneficiary but $SIVE is incredibly important to $NVDA and $MRVL Celestial now as the light source. https://t.co/mn3oESTKlw
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认为 Nvidia 可能更希望 SIVE 保持独立，也可能出现股权收购或被 Broadcom 并购。
@yuntungshieh 我觉得 Nvidia 可能更希望 $SIVE 保持独立。 所以我们可能会看到 $MRVL、AlChip 对它做股权收购……或者也可能被 $AVGO 收购，用来卡死竞争对手的 CPO 路线图。现在还不确定最后会怎么演。
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@yuntungshieh I think Nvidia would rather have $SIVE stay independent. So we might see some share acquisition from $MRVL, AlChip… or maybe an acquisition by $AVGO to chokepoint their competitors CPO roadmap. Not sure how this plays out.
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调侃如果 Broadcom 买下 SIVE，就能控制后续多家公司的路线图。
如果 $AVGO 真的花 3 亿美元买下 $SIVE，那就太可惜了…… 这样一来，它就能从上游光源层面控制 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 的近端路线图。 我相信博通肯定不会在想这个……对吧？
英文原文
It would be a shame if $AVGO bought $SIVE for $300m… Then controlled the near term roadmap for $NVDA and $MRVL from the upstream light source level. I’m sure Broadcom isn’t thinking about this… right? https://t.co/wrS431DG8n
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认为 SIVE 已经进入 Nvidia 路线图，且市值仍很小。
@degenlurker_ 有意思的是，$SIVE 现在已经被写进 $NVDA 的路线图里了，而市值还只有大约 3 亿美元。 只是现在还没人把 Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell 这种多级关系串起来，虽然 Nvidia 已经砸了 20 亿美元去加速他们的 CPO 路线图了。
英文原文
@degenlurker_ It’s funny $SIVE is now baked into $NVDA roadmap now at ~$300M MC. Just no one associates multi hop relations between Sivers -> Poet -> Celestial -> Marvell yet when Nvidia invested $2B into accelerating their CPO roadmap yet.
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Nvidia 对 Marvell 的 20 亿美元投资，也验证了 SIVE 的光源位置。
刚刚消息出来：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 这笔交易主要是为了“联合硅光工作”，也验证了 Marvell 和 Celestial AI 的光互连 CPO 路线图。 但……谁在给 $MRVL 的光源供电，这点市场可能漏了？（提示：$SIVE）
英文原文
Just in: $NVDA invests $2B in $MRVL. This deal is largely for “joint silicon photonics work” and validates Marvell and Celestial AI's optical fabric CPO roadmap. But… guess who powers the light source for $MRVL that markets might have missed? (Hint: $SIVE) https://t.co/9lqJLIx7nG
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以Marvell收购Celestial为例，分析CPO供应链中Sivers作为CW激光器关键瓶颈供应商的巨大TAM扩张潜力。
看看$MRVL收购Celestial（$SIVE是其~2.9亿美元的光源供应商）这个例子就知道了。Marvell以55亿美元收购Celestial（32.5亿美元+22.5亿美元里程碑付款）。2026/2027年预期：零收入，亏损5000万美元。2028年预期：5亿美元收入。2029年预期：10亿美元收入。这是巨大的TAM（市场规模）扩张和收入加速增长。Sivers只是Celestial之上的客户之一，此外还有O-Net、Ayar、其他未公开的CPO（共封装光学）厂商，Jabil负责桥接量产爬坡并赢得良率。那些对光子学毫无理解的散户……正在做的事相当于：因为Celestial在2025、2026年没有CPO收入，就把它建模为5000万美元。因为它目前处于净亏损状态，而不是着眼于2027年之后的大规模爬坡。$SIVE是我抢先布局下一个架构超级周期（位于最早期阶段）的首选标的，涉及ELS TAM扩张+CPO+连续波(CW)激光器瓶颈。如果你想找后期介入的标的，可以看$LITE，它已经涨了3800%。
英文原文
Just look at $MRVL Celestial ( $SIVE is the light source at ~$290m ) as an example. Marvell bought it for $5.5B. ($3.25B + 2.25B milestones). 2026/2027 expectations: 0 revenue, -$50m loss 2028 expectations: $500m revenue 2029 expectations: $1B revenue. This is massive TAM expansion and revenue acceleration. This is just one of Sivers customer on top of O-Net, Ayar, other undisclosed CPO players, with Jabil bridging volume ramp and Win with yields. Random retail users with no understanding of photonics… are doing the equivalent of modeling Celestial at $50m because of no CPO revenue in 2025 2026. And because it’s operating at a net loss instead of looking at the massive ramp 2027 onward. $SIVE is my #1 pick for frontrunning the next architectural supercycles at the very beginning for ELS TAM expansion + CPO + CW laser chokepoints. If you want a later stage pick, you can look at $LITE that already ran 3800%.
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批评外行和媒体拿财务指标误判光子学、CPO 与 RPI 这类高增长标的。
请别再发消息问我那些随机散户或者记者对 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的分析了。 对于 $AXTI： 大多数人根本不知道自己在说什么。 三星代工和 $LITE 的 InP fab 完全是供应链的不同环节，这就像把 NAND 和 DRAM 混成一个存储类别一样。 就算说 Sumitomo 会取代 AXT，也说明这些人根本不懂上游的开采 / 加工 / 坩埚瓶颈，而 InP 衬底级公司像 $COHR 或 Sumitomo 本来就不是干这个的。 对于 $SIVE： 这就是 2027 年以后 CPO 规模化放量的质变点。 我看到很多对光子学完全不懂的人，拿毛利率、烧钱速度，以及前几年的营收甚至今年的营收来分析。 可 2027 年以后才会迎来最大的一次架构拐点。 如果你看 $MRVL Celestial 的时间点，它们 2027 年开始放量，2028、2029 年还会指数级增长。 所以我才说 $SIVE 有一天能成为 100 亿美元以上的公司，因为我看的是前瞻增长，而且这是最早能切入的位置。 我做的事情就是找 alpha： 市场可能像那些把 $RPI 前瞻增速说成 14-17% 的分析师一样，把它错定价了。 然后我建模成 55%，结果事实是 58%。 一个是光子学瓶颈，自有其原因。 另一个是被设计进 Jabil 和 Celestial 的，自有其原因。
英文原文
Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE. For $AXTI: Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about. Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory. Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do. For $SIVE: This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards. I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year. For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards. If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029. That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on. What I do is find alpha: This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI. Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%. One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason. The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.
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认为若 CPO 在 2026 年下半年到来，自己会继续持有 SIVE。
为什么每个 ticker 都有人一直问我同一个问题。 如果 CPO 的拐点会在 2026 年下半年到来，那我会继续拿着 $SIVE，因为我是在提前布局下一轮光子学变化。 考虑到它只有 2.8 亿美元市值，$AVGO 明天就能把它的光子业务 / IP 买下来，从而控制 $MRVL 的光子路线图……所以我个人除了稀释之外，几乎看不到多少下行风险。
英文原文
Why do people keep asking me this for every single ticker. If CPO inflection is coming in late 2026, I'm holding $SIVE, since I'm frontrunning the next photonics shift. Given it's a $280M MC, $AVGO can just buy their photonics division/IP tomorrow and control $MRVL's photonics roadmap... so I personally don't see much downside risk aside from dilution.
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整理Mirae Asset的CPO价值链全图，涵盖激光源到EDA各环节上市公司
来自Mirae Asset的CPO价值链概览： 激光源： Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) PIC代工： TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM > EIC、驱动IC： Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS、光引擎： Innolight / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) TFC / 苏州天孚光通信 (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU（光纤阵列单元）： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU、对准工具： ficonTEC（私企） All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST（私企） FAU、引擎组装： Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT、先进封装： ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > 连接器、套管： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec（私企） T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex（私企） Browave (TWO: 3163) 光纤： Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / 日东纺绩 (TYO: 3110) 电/光测试： Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane（私企） 交换、系统： NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL > EDA： Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > 对这些名单中的一些名称感到困惑，他们可能混淆了一些公司，比如把Innolight和激光源公司（如$MTSI、Sumitomo、$SIVE、Luxnet）与实际终端模块混在一起了（除非有什么非公开材料或者我遗漏了）。 但对于对这个领域感兴趣的人来说，这是一个很好的高层概览。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: CPO领域Mirae分析师笔记： 规模化方向： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、中际旭创 DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 规模提升方向： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互连：研发阶段？ CPO测试："新玩家进入增加" 微透镜/光学系统："新玩家进入增加" TLDR：规模提升的CPO即将到来。我认为分析师笔记遗漏了一堆上游公司名称，并把ELS和光源混为一谈了。 但对于了解他们认为谁是领先玩家来说，这是个很好的高层概览。
英文原文
CPO Value Chain Summary from Mirae Asset: Laser Source: Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) PIC Foundry: TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM> EIC, Driver IC: Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS, Optical Engine Innolight / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) TFC / Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU (Fiber Array Unit): Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU, Align Tools: ficonTEC (Private) All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST (Private) FAU, Engine Assembly: Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT, Advanced Packaging: ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > Connector, Ferrule: Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec (Private) T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex (Private) Browave (TWO: 3163) Fiber: Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / Nitto Boseki (TYO: 3110) E/O Testing: Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane (Private) Switch, System: NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL> EDA: Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > Confused by some of names of the list, they might have conflated a few names like Innolight with laser source like $MTSI, Sumitomo, $SIVE, Luxnet, with the actual end module (unless there's something that's not public material or I missed)? But just for people interested in the landscape, this is a good high-level overview.
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认为 MRVL 是长期好票，但 SIVE 作为瓶颈环节会对其增长造成威胁。
@StocksAREnuts $MRVL 确实是一只很好的长期多头。 我只是想分享一下：某个竞争对手如果想卡住它的增长垂直业务线，只需要花 3.5 亿美元买下 $SIVE 这种级别的公司就行。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts $MRVL is a really good long term long. I’m just sharing thought about how a competitor could potentially chokepoint their growth verticals for a rounding error of $350m with $SIVE
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希望 SIVE 保持独立，担心被竞争对手低价买下。
@Matrix_B0SS 我其实希望 $SIVE 保持独立。 只是随手写了些洗澡时冒出来的想法，觉得另一家超大客户或竞争对手可能会用区区 3.5 亿美元就控制 $MRVL 的近端光子项目。
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS I actually hope $SIVE remains independent. Just posting some shower thoughts about how another hyperscaler or competitor could control $MRVL near term photonics program for a cheap price of $350m.
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认为 SIVE 可能被多方盯上，也可能因持股结构保持独立。
洗澡时冒出来的一个想法…… SIVE 现在可能已经被 $QCOM、$MRVL、$AVGO、AlChip、联发科、$AMZN、$META、$MSFT 的风投部门盯上了？ 既然现在大家都公开知道了，Broadcom 只要花 3.5 亿美元就能买下 Marvell 在光子学上的咽喉点（Amazon / Microsoft 的 ASIC 项目）…… 或者 Qualcomm 也可以用同样的方式收购 $SIVE，然后在收购 Alphawave 之后把激光 IP 做垂直整合。 又或者……超大规模客户会通过持有足够多股份，想办法让 $SIVE 继续保持独立？
英文原文
It’s funny a shower thought… Probably put $SIVE on the radar for $QCOM, $MRVL, $AVGO, AlChip, Mediatek, $AMZN, $META, $MSFT venture arms now? Since everyone publicly knows now Broadcom can just go and buy Marvell’s photonics chokepoint vulnerability (Amazon/Microsoft ASIC programs) for a rounding error of $350m… Or Qualcomm can do the same buying $SIVE then vertically integrate laser IP after Alphawave aquisition. Or maybe… hyperscalers figure out a way $SIVE remains independent by owning enough shares?
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只是分享想法，猜测 Marvell 的 CPO 供应链会不会被竞争对手收购卡脖子。
@Jornka329996 我只是分享一下洗澡时的想法，不知道人们或者市场会怎么反应。 也许 $MRVL 的风投方更愿意让他们的 CPO 供应链卡口被 $AVGO 或 AlChip 这样的竞争对手收购和控制？
英文原文
@Jornka329996 I’m just sharing my shower thoughts, don’t know how anyone or markets react. Maybe $MRVL ventures prefers their CPO supply chain chokepoint to be bought out and controlled by competitors like $AVGO or Alchip?
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认为 Marvell 也许可以用很小成本持有 SIVE 一部分。
@PerDahlstrm $MRVL 其实只要花 3000 万美元买下 $SIVE 的 10% 到 20%，就能把他们十亿美元级别的 CPO 项目稳住。
英文原文
@PerDahlstrm $MRVL can just buy 10-20% of $SIVE for $30m and secure their billion dollar CPO program
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Sivers作为稀缺独立cw激光供应商，战略价值远超当前市值估值。
我个人看到 $SIVE 下跌风险较小的原因： 像 $AVGO 这样 $MRVL 的竞争对手可以直接收购 Sivers，从而控制其近中期光子学路线图... 估值约 2.9 亿美元... 如果再便宜一点的话。 Gemini 的回应很有趣： "像 Broadcom 这样以约 2.9 亿美元收购 Sivers Photonics 来扼制 Marvell 新收购的 Celestial AI 路线图不仅仅是战略行为； 这是一场投资回报率高得离谱的供应链战争。" "花点小钱，竞争对手就能控制上游光源，把握直接的 IP 路线图，并让试图整合 Celestial AI 的 Marvell 付出数十亿美元的机会成本。" 对于 $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN 等超大规模云服务商来说，投资 Sivers 来确保其共封装光学(CPO)供应链可能比让它被竞争对手收购更有利。 就像 $QLCM 与 Alphawave 针对 OpenLight 生态所做的操作一样。 我的观点是：$SIVE 作为全球少数保持独立运营的 cw 激光器供应商之一的关键瓶颈地位... 其固有的价值远超其市值。 对冲基金因「MC」和瑞典交易所上市限制无法投资从而压低估值... 对于收购方或散户投资者来说反而是一种因祸得福。
英文原文
The reason I personally see less downside risk with $SIVE: A competitor to $MRVL like $AVGO can just buy Sivers outright and their near-medium term photonics roadmap… At ~$290m… if it gets any cheaper. Gemini responses were interesting: “ A competitor like Broadcom buying Sivers Photonics for ~$290M to choke Marvell’s newly acquired Celestial AI roadmap isn't just strategic; It is supply chain warfare with an absurdly high ROI. “ “ For pocket change, a competitor could buy the upstream light source, control the immediate IP roadmap, and inflict billions of dollars worth of opportunity cost on Marvell right as they try to integrate Celestial AI “ It’s likely better for hyperscalers like $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN to invest in Sivers to secure their CPO supply chain then have it being bought out by one of their competitors. Like what happened already with $QLCM and Alphawave for OpenLight. My opinion: $SIVE chokepoint as one of the few projects remaining independent cw laser suppliers in the world… Is inherently way more valuable than their marketcap. Hedge funds not being able to invest due to “MC” and Sweden listing to keep valuations depressed… is a blessing in disguise for both acquisitions or retail investors.
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把近期机构轮动理解为 CPO/ELS 上游链条的机会。
尽管指数和巨头都在跌，比如 $META / $MSFT，但市场里依然明显有一些超额收益者。 这大概说明了机构轮动，或者说某个非常强的新兴行业已经在形成。 最明显的就是 CPO / ELS 供应链。 我个人的标的包括： $TSEM / Win Semi - 光子学里的 TSM $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE - 光源 $SOI / $AXTI - 衬底 $IQE - 外延片 当然也有更大的名字，比如 $MRVL、Sumitomo、$AVGO。
英文原文
There’s clearly some market outperformers despite index’s and mega caps from $META / $MSFT crashing. This probably signals institutions rotation or an extremely strong up and coming sector. The obvious one is into CPO/ELS supply chains. My personal picks were: $TSEM / Win Semi- TSM of photonics $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE- Light Sources $SOI / $AXTI - Substrates $IQE - Epiwafers But of course there are larger names out there like $MRVL, Sumitomo, $AVGO.
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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Mirae分析师梳理CPO产业格局，作者认为遗漏上游公司但框架有参考价值
CPO产业格局 Mirae分析师笔记： 横向扩展： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、Innolight DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 纵向扩展： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互联：研发阶段？ CPO测试：「新玩家不断进入」 微透镜/光学系统：「新玩家不断进入」 总结：纵向扩展的CPO即将到来。认为分析师笔记遗漏了一些上游公司名字，并将ELS与光源混为一谈。 但作为高层视角，能看到他们认为的领先玩家还是有参考价值的。
英文原文
CPO Landscape Mirae Analyst Note: Scale-Across: CPO ASIC: $AVGO, $MRVL Optical Transceiver: $COHR, $LITE, Innolight DSP/PAM4: $AVGO, $MRVL Coherent DCI: $CIEN, $NOK OCS Equipment: iPronics, Polatis Optical Cable / Fiber: $GLW, Prysmian, Furukawa HCF: $LITE, OFS DCI Coherent: Ciena, Nokia, Huawei Optical Amplifier: $LITE, $COHR OCS Gateway: KDDI Scale-Up: SiPh Foundry: imec, $GFS, $TSM SiPh Modulator: $NVDA (in-house MRM), $INTC ELS: NTT, Furukawa, $LITE, $COHR THz Interconnect: R&D Stage? CPO Test: "Expanding entry of new players" Micro Lens / Optical Systems: "Expanding entry of new players" TLDR: Scale Up CPO is coming next. Think the analyst note missed a bunch of upstream names and conflated ELS with light source. But it's helpful to see who they think the leading players are as a very high-level view.
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认为上游光源被控住后，MRVL 的光子路线图会被低成本卡住。
大致就是 $SIVE -> Win -> $POET -> Celestial -> $MRVL 这条链。 你只要把上游光源买下来，就能用很低的成本控制 Marvell 的供应链。 他们当然可以绕开，但认证时间和延迟会拖慢路线图。 或者 $MRVL 也可以入股，确保 $SIVE 保持独立。
英文原文
It goes $SIVE -> Win -> $POET -> Celestial -> $MRVL basically. You just buy out the upstream light source and Marvell’s supply chain gets controlled for dirt cheap. They can engineer around it but qualification time and delays roadmap. Or $MRVL can secure a stake to make sure $SIVE remains independent
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承认现金少和历史包袱，但认为独立 cw 激光供应商的价值足以抵消下行。
当然，现金余额低、来自母公司的历史包袱、后续还会有进一步稀释。 Ayar 在做多来源采购，而且更偏向 $LITE。可能还会遇到 Win 的认证问题，以及 CPO 路线图延迟。 但我认为，作为全球少数几家独立 cw 激光供应商之一，它的价值足以抵消这些下行风险。这个身份本身就非常有价值。 如果跌得足够便宜，对冲基金或者像 Broadcom、Marvell 这样的公司，完全可以用很低的价钱把它收购，然后向上游一体化，或者把竞争对手的关键路径卡住。
英文原文
Sure, low cash balance, legacy drag from parent company, further dilution along the way. Ayar multi sourcing and leaning more heavily toward $LITE. Maybe qualification issues with Win. CPO roadmap delays. I do think any downside risk is negated by how valuable being one of the only independent cw laser suppliers in the world. So that itself is really valuable. If it ever drops enough a hedge fund or company like Broadcom or Marvell can just buy it out for pennies and either vertically integrate upstream or chokepoint out competitors.
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调侃如果竞争对手控制了 MRVL 的 CPO 路线图会更好笑。
@StocksAREnuts 如果有竞争对手以 2.8 亿美元拿下并控制 $MRVL 的 CPO 近端路线图，那会更好笑。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts Would be even funnier if a competitor controlled or delayed $MRVL CPO near term roadmap for $280m.
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说更好的做法是便宜地拿下竞争对手整套技术栈并纵向整合。
@Hiraweb3 或者更好……用很便宜的价格直接拿下竞争对手的整套技术栈。 这样还能更好地做纵向整合。
英文原文
@Hiraweb3 Or better yet… own their competitor’s stack for dirt cheap prices. And they can vertically integrate better too.
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认为 SIVE 太上游，不太会卷进反垄断，Broadcom 可以轻松控制 MRVL 路线图。
@InFoTheLongTerm $SIVE 作为激光组件供应商，位置太上游了，所以不会被反垄断问题缠住，这样 Broadcom 就能把这件事做成。 有意思的是，这里其实就是一个瓶颈点，你等于可以在中短期内掌控 $MRVL 的光子学路线图，因为新供应商的认证需要时间。
英文原文
@InFoTheLongTerm $SIVE is too upstream as a laser component vendor to be caught up in antitrust so @Broadcom can pull it off. But the funny thing is it’s a chokepoint and you’d effectively own $MRVL photonics roadmap near-medium term since qualification of new suppliers takes time.
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设想 Broadcom 收购上游光源后控制 Marvell 短中期光子路线图。
只是一个洗澡时突然冒出来的想法： 像 $AVGO 这样的竞争对手，如果用 2.8 亿美元收购 $MRVL 的上游光源 $SIVE，那会很聪明。 这样你就能控制他们短中期的光子学路线图，连 Celestial 也在你手里。 有点像 $QLCM 当年把 Alphawave 和 OpenLight 生态圈拿下。 已经有不少对冲基金在谈潜在并购机会了。 问了 Gemini，回答还挺好笑。
英文原文
Just a shower thought: Would be smart for a competitor like $AVGO to buy $MRVL upstream light source for $280M with $SIVE. Then you control their short-mid term photonics roadmap with Celestial. Kind of like $QLCM did with Alphawave and OpenLight ecosystem. Quite a few hedge funds already talked about potential M&A opportunities. Asked Gemini, response was funny
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分析光学组件为AI集群关键瓶颈，Sivers垂直整合价值凸显
因为我预期一些公司，尤其是光子学个股会显著跑赢大盘。Sivers还拥有关键的激光技术，$MRVL和其他公司会想要收购来实现垂直整合……如果股价进一步下跌，任何人都可以用零钱收购整家公司。当我说伊朗扰乱全球流动性和能源时，这并不意味着在最坏情况下$NVDA会跌到零。也许一些超级计算用户会保守地削减资本支出，一些数据中心建设会放缓。但如果光学组件是扩展AI集群的必要部件，那么它们已经售罄，而且在BOM中占比很小因为它们很便宜。削减支出根本无法改变这个瓶颈。
英文原文
Bc I expect some companies, especially individual photonics names strongly outperform. Sivers also hold the critical laser tech that $MRVL and others would want to buy for vertical integration… and if it dropped any further, someone can just acquire the entire company for spare change. When I say Iran disrupting global liquidity/energy, that doesn’t mean $NVDA drops to 0 in a worse case scenario. Maybe some hyperscalers cut back on capex spend to be conservative, some DC buildout stalls. If optical components are necessary to scale AI clusters. Then they’re sold out and such a little part of BOM since they’re cheap. Cutting back on spend won’t change that bottleneck at all
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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分享一个股票配置框架示例：分高增长股、moonshot、安全股、长期国家安全股四层配置
我个人不会仅投资一个行业以分散风险。我提到光子学如$AAOI是因为我认为它有最高的短期上涨空间。但像$NBIS这样的公司，正如Jensen准确所说的，会"照顾好你"的长期表现。也许可以找一些高增长long标的，例如：$ARM - 从新AI CPU获得5倍收入增长；$NBIS - 到第四季度实现7-9B ARR增长带来10倍收入增长；$AAOI - 从光收发器需求获得10倍收入增长；$MRVL - 从$MSFT Maia ASICs获得2-3倍收入增长。选择一两个moonshot：我提到$SIVE是我最喜欢的，但鉴于其规模小，我不会投入太多集中度。然后用一些"更安全的标的"进行杠铃配置：$AMZN长期看涨，即使通过机器人/AI削减运营成本，但其走势像蜗牛；$RDDT长期看涨，因为它利润极高且今天正在产生巨额自由现金流。也许还有一些"超长期玩家"具有深远的国家安全优势，例如：$INTC的"美国制造"；$AMKR的"美国制造"等。这只是一个虚构的例子。
英文原文
I would personally not just invest in one sector for diversification sake. I talk about photonics like $AAOI recently because I see it as highest short-term upside. But others like $NBIS as Jensen accurately said "will take care of you" long term. Maybe figure out high growth longs for example: $ARM - 5x revenue from new AI CPU $NBIS - 10x revenue to q4 $7-9B ARR ramp $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transceiver demand $MRVL - 2-3x revenue ramp from $MSFT Maia ASICs Pick one or two moonshots: I mentioned $SIVE as my favorite, but given it's small size, I wouldn't put too much concentration into them and then barbell with some "safer plays" $AMZN long term I'm bullish on even from robotics/AI cutting opex though it moves like a slug $RDDT long term I'm bullish on from on just because it's ridiculously high profit and generating massive FCF today. and maybe some "long, long term players" that have deep national security benefits eg: $INTC for Made in America $AMKR for Made in America, etc. Just a made up example.
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阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
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正式买入 0.5%-1% 的 SIVE，认为其 CW 激光瓶颈被严重低估。
我刚刚买了大约 $SIVE 公司本身 0.5% 到 1% 的股份。 我说过，他们未来在 CW 激光上的瓶颈被严重低估了，所以我也用实际行动证明了我的观点。 尤其是它已经被确认为 Jabil、$MRVL Celestial、O-Net 以及其他超大规模云厂商的光源供应商。 https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
英文原文
I just bought ~.5%-1% of $SIVE as a company. I said their future CW laser chokepoint is grossly mispriced. And I put my money where my mouth is. Especially when they're the confirmed light source for Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, O-Net, and other hyperscalers. https://t.co/9xUu4OTbJt
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SIVE作为CPO光源瓶颈被低估，2500万市值太低，坚信将成下一个AXTI
这就是为什么在进入交易前需要有信念。如果你了解$SIVE在CW激光领域为Jabil、$MRVL Celestial等共封装光学(CPO)供应，就会明白2.5亿美元市值作为光源瓶颈来说太低了。我们高度相信，一年后这会像$AXTI一样，因为这将是CPO规模化扩展的架构范式。在上涨过程中我不关心波动，因为我对光子学的发展如何演绎有坚定的信念。
英文原文
This is why you need to have conviction before entering a trade. If you knew $SIVE positioning in the CW laser space to Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, and others for CPO. $250M MC as the light source chokepoint would be a joke. High confidence we’ll see this end up like $AXTI in a years time since it this will be the architectural paradigm for cpo scale up. Don’t care about volatility in the way up because I have conviction in how this plays out with photonics.
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认为 2.9 亿市值放在 MRVL、JBL 和超大规模云流量链条里，等待 CPO 放量就好。
@Johnyom8 一家 2.9 亿美元市值的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL、$JBL 和超大规模云厂流量链条里。 我不觉得自己判断错了，CPO 的放量路径就是这样演化的。 这只是等量放大的问题。
英文原文
@Johnyom8 $290m MC for a company designed into $MRVL, $JBL and hyperscaler flows. I don't think I'm wrong seeing how CPO scale up evolves. Just a waiting game for volume ramp.
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分析 $SIVE 在光子学 CPO CW WDM 供应链中的关键地位，估值 $3 亿相对 $LITE 的 $550 亿市值极具不对称优势。
"没有 Win（赢家）就拼不出 Winner（胜利者）。" "因此：我看多 $SIVE 供应链。" "$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> 超大规模数据中心，作为一个整体流程。" "如果你对比同样处于共封装光学(CPO) CW WDM 领域的 $LITE 等公司。" "原因如下：" "-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial。" "-> Ayar / $JBL 和 O-Net 使用 $SIVE。" "它被设计为超大规模数据中心下一代光子学架构的光源。" "估值约 $3 亿。" "而且我确实认为 WDM DFB 阵列是规模扩展(scale up)的优选架构。且开发难度极高。" "这不是零和博弈的架构之争，如何处理规模扩展(scale out)很可能会与使用单发射器的 $LITE 和 $COHR 分工合作。" "以及像 $MRVL 这样有内部供应链的厂商如何设计他们的架构。" "但如果你比较市值差异（$SIVE 约 $3 亿，$LITE 约 $550 亿）。" "任何人都能看清这个光子学领域 $3.3 亿美元即将到来的颠覆者 $SIVE 价值有多明显。" "尤其是 Win Semi 斥资 $40 亿的晶圆厂承接了来自 $SIVE、$AVGO、$MTSI 等客户的 fabless 激光器规模化生产。" "对于做多这条供应链以及光子学和超大规模数据中心架构发展方向来说，这是高度非对称性的机会。
英文原文
You cant spell Winner without Win. Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain. $SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow. If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space. There’s a reason why: -> $POET / $MRVL Celestial. -> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE. It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers. At a ~$300M valuation. And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop. It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR. As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures. But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE). Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space. And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale. It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
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认为机构还没充分认识 SIVE 的上游激光瓶颈价值，可能在悄悄吸筹。
$SIVE 这个大约 4 亿美元市值的名字，我是真心相信的…… 机构错过了它作为超大规模云厂商上游激光瓶颈的价值。 看 $TSEM 按我的 thesis 走出来后，股价涨了 70%，市值到了 210 亿美元以上。 散户流不会把 NASDAQ 股票推高 100 多亿美元。 真正做到这一点的是信息发现和信息整合，尤其是在机构也验证并跟进之后。 $SIVE 以前大部分由瑞典散户持有，几乎没有机构投资者。 现在，关于 $MRVL、Ayar、Jabil、O-Net 的上游 CW 激光供应商的信息已经传播开来。 而且最近 $AVGO 和其他一些评论也明确说激光器是供应链里的明确瓶颈： 我强烈认为，机构正在用冰山单、VWAP 算法，或者其他任何方式，从瑞典散户手里吸筹，以便吃到即将到来的 CW 激光瓶颈。 再说一次，最接近 $SIVE 的对标是： $MTSI 和 $LITE，它们市值分别是 180 亿和 550 亿美元。 Sivers 的市值大约只有 4 亿美元。 在光子供应链发生架构范式转变的时候： 我觉得散户难得有机会去抢在机构前面布局 $SIVE，并重仓配置即将到来的 CW / EML 激光瓶颈。
英文原文
$SIVE at ~$400m MC is a name I genuinely believe... Institutions missed as the upstream laser chokepoint for hyperscalers. When you look at $TSEM following my thesis, the stock went up 70% to a $21B+ MC. Retail flows do not send NASDAQ stocks up $10B+. Information discovery and synthesis does. Especially when institutions validate it, and follow along. $SIVE was majority owned by Sweden retail investors, with **almost 0 institutional investors**. Now that information is distributed regarding the Upstream CW laser supplier for $MRVL, Ayar, Jabil, O-Net. And with $AVGO + other comments recently stating lasers were a clear bottleneck for supply chains: I strongly think that institutions are trying to accumulate off Swedish retail hands through Iceberg orders, vwap algos, or any other methods to gain exposure to the upcoming CW laser bottleneck. Again, the closest comparison to $SIVE are: $MTSI and $LITE, both at $18B and $55B MCs. Sivers trades at ~$400m MC. With architectural paradigm shifts in photonic supply chains: I think retail has a rare opportunity to frontrun institutions with $SIVE and have heavy exposure to the upcoming CW/EML laser bottleneck.
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解释 SIVE 大涨的真正催化来自会议确认和光源瓶颈，而不是一条 X 帖子。
所以有深度投资者（像你们），也有交易员（像我）。 投资者往往忽略的是，究竟是什么让像 $SIVE 这样的股票上涨。 对我来说，我把时间点卡在 $NVDA GTC 和 OFC 大会附近，因为 Nvidia 推进 CPO 架构大概率会有新消息。 这波抛物线式上涨的原因是： -> $SIVE 被确认是 O-Net 的光源。 -> $SIVE 又在 OFC 上被确认是 Jabil 的光源。 这些才是我那篇 thesis 发出后最大的催化。 它本来就已经很不对称了，因为还有 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial，以及 Ayar 这一层。 而 Jabil 的可插拔公告正好又和我做多的时间点重合，只是锦上添花。 这不是“发一条 X 帖子，股票就涨 300%”那么简单，事情没那么运作。
英文原文
So there's deep investors (like you), then there's traders (like myself). What investors miss is what causes a stock like $SIVE to go up. For me, I timed it around $NVDA GTC + OFC conference, since there's likely new news around Nvidia pushing CPO architectures. The reason for the parabolic rise is: -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to O-Net. -> $SIVE confirmed as light source to Jabil at OFC. These were the biggest catalysts after my thesis post was announced. It was already asymmetrical due to $POET -> $MRVL Celestial as well as Ayar. But the Jabil plugabble announcement timed with me going long is a cherry on top. It's not just an "X post, stock goes up 300%", doesn't work like that.
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认为 SIVE 是光学激光瓶颈的最高暴露标的，已经是多家供应商的 CW 光源。
@NBA_GSW_30 我真的很喜欢 $SIVE，它是光学激光瓶颈里最有暴露度的标的！ 它们已经是 Jabil、Ayar、Marvell Celestial、O-Net 等很多供应商的 CW 光源。 而且我觉得这家公司还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
@NBA_GSW_30 I really like $SIVE as the highest exposure to the optical laser bottleneck! They’re already the CW light source for many suppliers like Jabil, Ayar, Marvell Celestial, O-Net. And I think the company has a long way to go
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强调 SIVE 通过 CHIPS Act 和国安项目对美国很重要，并给出更高估值判断。
如果你到现在还不知道，$SIVE 通过 CHIPS 法案对美国国家安全很重要。 而且尤其是，它还是超大规模云 AI 供应链的光源。 到目前为止，他们已经拿了大约 1160 万美元的两笔 CHIPS 法案资助： 1. 和 $ERIC 以及 Raytheon $RTX 一起做 FR3 beamformer ICs 2. 和 $BA（LSE）BAE Systems 一起做 EW 技术 CEO 还暗示 2026 年会有更多来自 CHIPS 的资金。 小盘股几乎从来拿不到美国政府这种支持。 你手里有一家市值 3.3 亿美元的公司： 它对美国半导体业务的国家安全至关重要， 也对超大规模云供应链（$MSFT、$META、$AMZN、$ORCL 等）里的光子学至关重要， 通过 $MRVL Celestial、Ayar、Jabil、ONet 等链条。 关于扩产和 capex 的问题，现在已经由 Win Semi 合作基本回答了。 至于“等待 CPO”的机会成本，现在也被 OFC 上 Jabil 1.6T 可插拔模块放量这件事回答了。 $SIVE 是光子学里最被低估的宝石之一，我个人认为它今天就应该值 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
If you didn't know by now $SIVE is important to US national security via CHIPS act. But especially, as the light source for hyperscaler AI supply chains. They got two CHIPS acts grants ~$11.6M so far: 1. FR3 beamformer ICs with $ERIC and Raytheon $RTX. 2. EW Tech with $BA (LSE) BAE Systems With more coming funding from CHIPS in 2026 hinted by the CEO. Small caps almost never get this sort of support from the US government. You have a company sitting at $330M: That's critical to US National Security for their Semi arm. and Critical to Hyperscaler supply chains ( $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL, etc) for Photonics through $MRVL Celestial, Ayar, Jabil, ONet, and others... The main question regarding scale vs. capex is now answered by Win Semi partnership. And the question regarding "CPO waiting" opportunity cost is now answered by the Jabil 1.6T pluggable ramp from OFC. $SIVE of the most unknown gems in the photonics space and I personally think this company should be $2B+ today.
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认为新瓶颈 / 卡点无法用线性收入模型预测，只能基于供应链位置做主观判断。
像 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 这种新的瓶颈 / 卡点，前瞻收入根本没法建模。 你只能拿它跟龙头、它们的客户去做估值比较，再根据它在供应链里的位置做一个主观判断，比如 Jabil 的 1.6T transceiver、Ayar -> AI 芯片、$MRVL Celestial，或者更多还没公开的客户。 任何分析师如果说自己能准确建模收入放量路径，那基本都是在胡扯，哈哈。
英文原文
It's impossible to model forward revenue for new bottlenecks/chokepoints like $AXTI or $SIVE. It's valuation comparison to leaders, their customers, then just making a discretionary estimate on where it heads based on positioning (eg. Jabil 1.6T transceivers, Ayar -> Ai Chip, $MRVL celestial, and maybe more undisclosed customers). Any analyst who tries to model an accurate projection of revenue ramp is just giving BS lol.
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$SIVE激光供应商市值仅3亿，却对标百亿级$LITE，上涨空间巨大
$SIVE 正在重演我的 $AXTI 论点第十版吗？ 现在已上涨三倍。 说真的，市场怎么会错过这个？ -> 作为 Jabil 的激光供应商……用于当前超级周期中的 1.6T 可插拔光收发器。 -> 作为 Ayar / $MRVL Celestial 的激光供应商……用于即将到来的 CPO 超级周期。 从 $MTSI 到 $LITE，你们所有的激光供应商都是 170-450 亿美元的公司。 $SIVE？ 现在市值只有约 3.1 亿美元。 高确信度做多。
英文原文
$SIVE is starting to play out like my $AXTI thesis round 10? Up triple digits now. Really not sure how markets missed this one tbh? -> Laser supplier to Jabil… for 1.6T pluggable transceivers in the current supercycle. -> Laser supplier to Ayar / $MRVL celestial for CPO, in the upcoming supercycle. Literally all your laser suppliers from $MTSI to $LITE are $17-45B companies. $SIVE? Now only at ~$310M. High conviction long.
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把 SIVE->AEVA->LG->Boston Dynamics 视为 4D Physical AI 到光子学的交叉链条。
如果你不记得的话： $AEVA 是我做 4D Physical AI + World Models 的多头。 -> LG 向 $AEVA 投资了 5000 万美元，共同开发 FMCW 4D LiDAR，并明确提到了 humanoids。 -> LG（Boston Dynamics 的视觉供应商）。 但…… 谁在生产这些 FMCW LiDAR 用的 CW 激光器？ 就是那个同样负责光子学放量、并在 $JBL 和 $MRVL Celestial 的 1.6T+ 可插拔模块里扮演关键角色的公司。 它大概率也是 humanoids 和 4D physical AI 的 4D AI CW 激光供应商。 一个很可能的映射是： -> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics。 $SIVE 和 $AEVA 都是我的两只多头，但 4D Physical AI 到光子学这些前沿赛道往往会重叠。
英文原文
If you don't remember: $AEVA was my long for 4D Physical AI + World Models. -> LG $50m in $AEVA to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing Humanoids -> LG (Boston Dynamics vision spuplier). But... Guess who makes those CW lasers for FM-CW Lidar? The very same company for scaling photonics with 1.6T+ pluggables with $JBL to CPO in $MRVL Celestial. Is the likely 4D AI CW laser supplier for humanoids and 4D physical AI. One highly possible mapping: -> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics. Both $SIVE and $AEVA were my two longs, but frontier sectors in 4D Physical AI to photonics tend to overlap.
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说 SIVE 因 Jabil、MRVL、Ayar、Onet 等链条而从高风险变成低风险高回报。
是的，我原帖里也公布了财务数据。2 月份的重组，让 $SIVE 变得更有吸引力。 所以我现在认为 $SIVE 已经是低风险、高回报，而不是以前那种高风险了。 在它被宣布成为 Jabil 的光源之后，它也成了我现在高信念的小盘股。 你有 $JBL 在填补 1.6T 可插拔光模块这个巨大的空缺，而不是一直等 CPO。 然后是 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN、$MSFT。 再然后是 Ayar -> AiChip / 其他 -> $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 等。 最后是 O-Net -> 亚洲的 CPO 供应链。 另外，我不觉得在光子超级周期里，任何收入预测都应该是准确的，因为 TAM 扩张 / 量产放大本身就会改变一切。
英文原文
Yes in my original post, I published financials. The restructuring February, made $SIVE much more highly compelling. So, I see $SIVE being more low risk, high reward. Not high-risk anymore. And it's now my high conviction small cap after they were announced as the light source for Jabil. You have $JBL bridging the MASSIVE gap for 1.6 pluggable optical transceivers, rather than waiting for CPO. Then $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN, $MSFT. Then Ayar -> AiChip/others -> $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, and others. Then onet -> Asian supply chains for CPO. Also I don't think any revenue forecasts should be accurate given TAM expansion/ramp for photonics supercycles.
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认为不要只盯价格波动，$AXT 和 $SIVE 的长期价值仍可能非常高。
什么都没有？如果有人愿意在限价买单很少的情况下，把给 $JBL、Ayar、$MRVL Celestial 等客户供光源的公司按 2.5 亿美元市值去市价砸盘或者止损，他们当然可以这么做。 我第一次发 $AXT 时，它从 15 美元跌了 20% 到 12 美元，现在已经大概 60 美元了。 最好的办法是看市值，而不是看中途的百分比波动，因为沿途一定会有很多波动。 $SIVE 可能是我现在最喜欢的光子板块机会之一，我个人觉得如果大家 6 个月后回头看，现在的估值一定会让人拍桌子。
英文原文
Nothing? If people want to market sell/stop loss the laser supplier to $JBL, Ayar, $MRVL Celestial and others at a $250m, when there's low limit buys, they're free too. $AXT dropped 20% to $12 when I first posted it at $15 and now it's ~$60. Best thing to do is look at market cap and not the % fluctuations, since there's going to be a lot of volatility along the way. $SIVE is probably one of my favorite photonic sector opportunity right now given valuation. And I personally think if people looked back 6 months later, they'll be pounding the table at current valuations.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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认为 SIVE/SIVEF 本周大涨后仍被低估，是多家光子和云厂供应链中的关键激光源。
$SIVE <> $SIVEF 这周已经涨了 165%。 估值呢？大约 3 亿美元市值。 不过我可能是傻了，或者说 Sivers 其实就是当下光子领域最好的机会之一。 你买到的是 Jabil、Ayar、Poet（$MRVL Celestial）、O-Net 等公司的激光供应商： 而这些最终都会流向 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的 AI 数据中心。 市值才 3 亿美元。 今天的 EML 激光供应商，比如 $LITE 到 $COHR，作为参照都在 450 亿美元以上。 这可能是未来上游光子供应链里最不被市场理解、却又至关重要的瓶颈之一。 而市场现在才刚开始给它定价。
英文原文
$SIVE <> $SIVEF is now up 165% this week. Valuation? ~$300M MC. However; either I’m dumb or Sivers is one of the best opportunities in photonics today. You get the laser supplier for Jabil, Ayar, Poet ( $MRVL Celestial ), O-Net, and others: That end up in $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META AI datacenters. At ~$300M. The EML laser suppliers today from $LITE to $COHR for reference are $45B+ This is one of the most undiscovered yet critical bottlenecks for future upstream photonics supply chains. That markets have only starting to price in today.
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把 SIVE 视作 MRVL Celestial、Ayar、O-Net、Jabil 等链路的激光源，最终服务于大型云厂商。
它们字面上就是 $MRVL Celestial 通过 $POET、Ayar -> AI Chip / GUC、O-Net，乃至现在的 Jabil 所使用的光源。 所以终端客户大概率全是 $MSFT、$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN……也就是说，它们可能会成为整个超大规模云供应链，甚至亚洲供应链的未来潜在光源。 市值只有 2.8 亿美元，wtf？ 按 30 亿到 50 亿美元去看都不夸张。
英文原文
They're literally the light source for $MRVL Celestial through $POET, Ayar -> Ai Chip/GUC, O-Net, and now Jabil. So end users are probably all $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN... The future potential light source for the entire hyperscaler supply chain and even ones in Asia. At $280m MC, wtf? $3-5B MC for $SIVE near term is not far fetched.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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分析Sivers和IQE在硅光子学供应链中的卡位，看好其从传统业务向InP光子学的转型机会。
$SIVE/$SIVEF和$IQE。Sivers为CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)制造激光阵列和CW DFB激光器。并且已经嵌入超大规模云厂商如$AMZN和$MSFT集群的供应链，作为Captive模式如$MRVL Celestial和Merchant模式如Ayar的光源。然后他们通过晶圆(win)认证来提升产能，这样在内部扩产时不会消耗太多资本支出。$IQE是InP外延片(epiwafer)供应商，正在将legacy沉积反应器重构用于光子学供应链。他们已经是$LITE的已知供应商，另一大供应商是Landmark，估值约40亿美元（但产能潜力较小）。这基本上相当于将$IREN或$RIOT的比特币矿工转为HPC，但针对的是光子学。有相当多的债务，但这更多是在赌台湾销售能通过，以及管理层会转向InP生产以获得重新评级。所以这两家是我目前最看好的。
英文原文
$SIVE / $SIVEF and $IQE. Sivers makes laser arrays and cw dfb lasers for cpo/silicon photonics. And is embedded into hyperscaler supply chains like $AMZN and $MSFT clusters as the light source from captive models like $MRVL celestial from $POET and merchant models from Ayar. Then they’re up capacity through win qualification, so they don’t burn as much capex scaling in house. $IQE is InP epiwafer and refactoring reactors from legacy drag to photonic supply chains. They’re already a known $LITE supplier and the other biggest one is Landmark sitting around ~$4B (with less latent capacity). This is basically the equivalent of $IREN or $RIOT turning their Bitcoin miners into HPC, but for photonics. There’s a decent amount of debt, but this is more of a guess that their Taiwan sales will go through and management will pivot toward InP production for rerating. So those two are my favorites right now
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分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机
都是很好的问题！我的看法： - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来，CPO（共封装光学）今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现，就像我在供应链映射中提到的，大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家（从$AXTI就能看出这一点）。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众，关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资，所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款（10.85%）和500万美元定期贷款（12%），对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面：赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来，这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model（如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia）模式风险更低，基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商，无论怎样都能赢，但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是，时机足够早，可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器，所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。
英文原文
All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.
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Sivers涨幅29%达2.82亿市值，作者认为其作为CPO/硅光子学上游激光供应商，是下一个LITE，尚未被市场定价。
Sivers今天又涨了29%，市值达到2.82亿美元。我真心认为$SIVE可能是下一个$LITE。因为他们被定位为下一代超大规模算力供应链接构的光源。当scale up-scale out架构转向共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)时——光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)的开端。那些从$POET和Ayar购买并封装其激光阵列/cw DFB激光(连续波分布反馈激光器)的公司——估值约10亿至40亿美元以上（不包括O-Net或未披露的公司）。在当前可插拔光收发器(Pluggable Transceiver)周期中：激光供应商通常比其购买光源的封装对手方获得更高的估值溢价。所以，我确实认为$SIVE在很大程度上被市场忽视，远未反映在股价中。（该推文引用了@aleabitoreddit的推文，仅供理解语境）：$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。他们是未来类似$COHR/$LITE的光源供应商，可能用于：- $AMZN Trainium集群- $MSFT Maia集群以及可能的其他超大规模算力商如$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。目前市值约2亿美元。关联映射（推测性）：$SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial内部供应）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium。$SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ？亚洲超大规模算力商。持续进行中：$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU）。$SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（内部CPO）-> ?（$MSFT, $META历史上Wiwynn最大的客户）。由于类似$MRVL Celestial这样的内部供应模式，他们获得了免费搭乘。然而，他们确实在商业模式下与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI多源自ELS竞争，并与Ayar一起获胜。但无论哪种方式他们都能赢。对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行的Win半导体验证，但这可能是一个重要指标。再强调一下，供应链BOM（物料清单）是极其机密的。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们用$SIVE"。但如果你把1+1+1+1+1放在一起，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。大多数人看到"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE，或Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有映射所有多跳关系来看它们最终去向哪里。我确实认为$SIVE是一个非常未被发现的机遇，作为未来硅光子学领域可能的迷你版$LITE，当时市值2亿美元。作为未来CPO/硅光子学规模扩展的上游激光供应商，用于cw DFB激光器和激光阵列的超大规模算力供应链接构。
英文原文
Sivers is up another 29% to a $282M marketcap today. I genuinely think $SIVE could be the next $LITE. As they’re positioned as the light source for the next generation of hyperscaler supply chains. When scale up-scale out architectures transition to CPO & Silicon photonics. For the start of next Photonics Supercycle. The companies that buy and package their laser arrays/cw dfb lasers from $POET to Ayar? Are worth ~$1B-$4B+ (not including o-net or undisclosed). With current pluggable transceiver cycles: Laser suppliers typically command higher valuation premiums than their packaging counterparties that buy the light source. So, I do think $SIVE is largely undiscovered by markets and far from being priced in.
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$SIVE作为2亿美元市值的硅光子学上游激光供应商，是未被发现的机遇，供应超大规模业者CPO供应链。
$SIVE是CPO和硅光子学的上游激光供应商。 他们是未来可能像$COHR和$LITE那样的光源供应商，用于： - $AMZN Trainium集群 - $MSFT Maia集群 以及可能还有其他超大规模业者的$META MTAI和$GOOGL TPU集群。 市值约2亿美元。 关系映射（推测性）： $SIVE（光源）-> $POET（光学中介层）-> $MRVL（可能是Celestial专用）-> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE（光源）-> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? 亚洲超大规模业者 正在进行中： $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar -> GUC -> ?（Google $TPU） $SIVE（光源）-> Ayar（TeraPHY/SuperNova）-> Wiwynn（专用CPO）-> ?（$MSFT、$META历史上是Wiwynn最大的客户）。 由于$MRVL Celestial等专用模式的存在，他们可以免费搭便车。 然而，他们在与Lumentum、Coherent和$MTSI的多源ELS竞争中对抗Ayar并获胜，即使在商业模式下也是如此。 但无论哪种模式他们都能获胜。 对于大规模生产爬坡，其中很大一部分取决于正在进行中的Win半导体认证，但这可能是一个重要指标。 同样，供应链BOM（物料清单）极度保密。$AMZN永远不会告诉任何人"嘿，我们使用$SIVE"。 但如果你把1+1+1+1+1加起来，你可以拼凑出可能的供应商。 大多数人都知道"Poet Starlight"使用$SIVE。或者Ayar使用$SIVE。但没有将所有多跳关系映射到最终目的地。 我真的认为$SIVE是一个极未被发现的机遇，可能成为下一个小型$LITE，用于硅光子学，在2亿美元市值下。 因为他们是未来CPO/硅光子学规模化扩展中超大规模业者供应链的上游激光供应商，cw DFB激光器和激光阵列用于扩展。
英文原文
$SIVE is the upstream laser supplier for CPO and Silicon Photonics. They're the likely $COHR / $LITE type future light source for: - $AMZN Trainium Clusters - $MSFT Maia Clusters and possibly other hyperscalers like $META MTAI and $GOOGL TPU clusters. At a ~$200M MC. Relational Mapping (speculative): $SIVE (light source) -> $POET (optical interposers) -> $MRVL (Likely Celestial Captive) -> $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium. $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> AiChip -> $AMZN Inferentia/Trainium $SIVE (light source) -> Enablence -> O-Net -> ? Asia Hyperscalers _ Ongoing: $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar -> GUC -> ? (Google $TPU) $SIVE (light source) -> Ayar (TeraPHY/SuperNova)-> Wiwynn (captive CPO) -> ? ( $MSFT, $META historically Wiwynn's largest clients). Because of captive models like $MRVL Celestial, they get a free ride. However, they do compete multi-source ELS against Lumentum, Coherent, and $MTSI with Ayar and win anyway in merchant models. But they win either way. For high-volume production ramp up, a large part of it depends on the ongoing Win semi qualification, but this will likely be a large indicator. Again supply chain BOM is extremely confidential. $AMZN will never tell anyone "Hey, we use $SIVE ". But if you put 1+1+1+1+1 together, you can piece together the likely suppliers. Most people see "Poet Starlight" uses $SIVE. Or Ayar uses $SIVE. But don't map all the multi-hop relations to see where they end up. I do think $SIVE is an extremely undiscovered opportunity as the next possible mini $LITE for Silicon Photonics at $200m MC. As they're the likely upstream laser supplier for hyperscaler supply chains for future CPO/Silicon Photonics scale up with cw dfb lasers and scale out with laser arrays.
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分析光通信供应链中不同规模公司的上涨潜力，从大型成熟公司到细分领域纯业务公司
三件事： 1/ 通常，市值越小，上涨空间越大（但风险也更高） 2/ 寻找那些未被定价进当前可插拔光模块周期的公司（EML光收发器公司如$LITE和$COHR） 3/ 纯业务布局即将到来的CPO/硅光子学范式转换。 说到追求“最高上涨空间”： 如果你看$MRVL的Celestial产品线对比$TSM的COUPE，两者都是大体量公司，而这只是它们营收的一小部分。所以这很可能被排除，除非交易员使用期权。 像$SOI的SOI衬底这类产品会对营收产生更实质性的影响（更高的上涨空间）。 然后还有像上游激光供应商$SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> 超大规模云厂商供应链这样的环节，我已识别为高潜力受益者。 但像$AAOI这样的公司在800G/1.6T可插拔光模块周期中仍有巨大的上涨空间。 我相信市场上有许多被错误定价或未知的投资机会…… CPO规模化应用的TAM（总可寻址市场）像是垂直上升的，但像$SIVE这样的产品用于规模化应用的光源和激光阵列。
英文原文
Three things: 1/ Generally, the lower the marketcap, the higher the upside (but more risk) 2/ Finding companies that weren’t priced into current pluggable cycles (EMl-transceiver companies like $LITE and $COHR) 3/ Pure play to the upcoming cpo/silicon photonics paradigm shift. In terms of chasing “highest upside”: If you look at $MRVL Celestial to $TSM COUPE they’re both already massive companies. And it’s just a fraction of their revenue. So that’s likely excluded unless traders use options. Stuff like SOI substrates for $SOI will make a more material difference toward revenue (higher upside). Then others like upstream laser supplier $SIVE to ->$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> hyperscaler supply chains, I’ve identified as a high potential beneficiary. But there’s still a massive upside for companies like $AAOI in the 800g/1.6T pluggable cycle. I’m sure there’s a lot of mispriced or unknown opportunites out there… as The TAM for cpo scale up is like a vertical like up, but things like $SIVE are used for light sources in scale up and laser arrays for scale up.
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说 MRVL 也在名单里，但像 Celestial 这类 captive 公司会被归到单一类别。
@BenzyStocks $MRVL 也在上面名单里。不过像 Marvell 这种有 Celestial 的 captive 公司会落进多个类别，所以我只把它放进其中一类。
英文原文
@BenzyStocks $MRVL is up there. Unfortunately captive companies like Marvell with Celestial fit into multiple categories, so just placed them into one.
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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Sivers作为硅光子激光供应商多方布局，2亿估值极具吸引力。
我相信是的。 $SIVE看起来就像是早期的$LITE，在CPO/硅光子领域2.12亿美元的估值看起来太荒谬了。 他们现在通过Enablence -> O-Net成为亚洲CPO供应链的激光供应商，供应AI数据中心（有点像Innolight供应可插拔收发器的方式）。 通过$Poet -> $MRVL Celestial成为美国超大规模云厂商供应链的激光供应商。 还是$NVDA支持的Ayar的商用模式激光供应商。 风险回报比对我个人来说看起来非常有前景。
英文原文
I believe so. $SIVE looks like the early $LITE for CPO/Silicon photonics at a $212M valuation, which looks absurd. They're now the laser supplier for the Asian CPO supply chain via Enablence -> O-Net for AI DCs (kinda like Innolight for pluggable transcievers) Laser supplier for US hyperscaler supply chains via $Poet -> $MRVL Celestial Laser supplier to $NVDA backed Ayar for merchant models. Risk reward to me personally looks extremely promising.
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$SIVE牵手O-Net/Enablence布局CPO，标志硅光子CW DFB激光器供应链成型，替代EML瓶颈的新周期将至。
刚刚：$SIVE宣布与O-Net和Enablence达成CPO（共封装光学）重大合作。 Sivers将成为CPO的激光阵列供应商。 这实质上是论点验证，因为$SIVE成为InP CW DFB（连续波分布式反馈）激光器供应商，用于硅光子学。 简单来说，这就是当前光学瓶颈的$LITE -> $FN关系。 并且类似于现有的$POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO供应链，但位于亚洲。 Enablence生产"星形耦合器"，类似于$POET的插入器。 O-Net是一家大型组装商，将它们封装成成品模块。 香港的O-Net是华为、中兴通讯、Ciena、Nokia、 Fujitsu等公司的供应商。 （引用内容）： $SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 随着市场对未来潜在$LITE光子学公司的信息进行综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则针对即将到来的CPO/硅光子瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商确保EML（电吸收调制激光器）产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T收发器及上游产能，来自： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 这可能会触发需求量的突然全面范式转变。 $SIVE从InP CW DFB激光器中获益，用于SiPh（硅光子学）和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司，如$MRVL Celestial（购买$POET的插入器）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源实际上是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来，但我们知道它即将到来。 正如当前光学收发器周期所示： - $LITE和$COHR的光源公司获得的估值远高于专注于先进封装的$FN等公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但忽略了它们Starlight项目实际光源（类似$LITE类型）的来源。 风险存在，包括面临$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等多方竞争。所以再次强调，请务必自己做研究。 但我对此的反论点： Sivers足够早地根据$POET、Ayar和其他公司的规格定制激光器，在它们声名鹊起之前（类似于$POET到$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi（稳懋）认证的潜在赢面可以抵消这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 去年我做了$LITE的论点研究，并且仍然看好这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS（光学电路交换）。 但今年，我的重点是： $SIVE，作为我个人对新一轮光子学架构转变的CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对把握从当前EML周期轮动到即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子周期的个人观点。
英文原文
Just in: $SIVE announces major partnership with O-Net and Enablence for CPO. Sivers will be the laser array supplier for CPO. This is thesis validation in effect as $SIVE becomes InP CW DFB supplier for silicon photonics. In simpler terms, this is the $LITE -> $FN relationship for current optical bottlenecks. And mirrors the existing $POET -> $MRVL Celestial CPO supply chain, but in Asia. Enablence makes the "Star Coupler", similar to $POET interposers. O-Net is a massive assembler, that packages them for the finished module. O-Net in HK is a supplier to companies like Huawei, ZTE, Ciena, Nokia, Fujitsu, and more.
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Sivers作为CW DFB激光器上游供应商，受益于向CPO/硅光子学的架构转换，与当前EML周期的Lumentum形成技术路线对比。
通常我不会回复喷子，但这个平台的虚伪确实令人印象深刻。 随机X平台散户： “为什么$Lite涨了1000%你之前不告诉我？” 我： “我在最早期就发布了这个可能的$Lite的论点，而且没有付费墙。” X平台散户： 😡，“我打算花$400付费墙来做多$ADBE并做空$PLTR”。 尤其是在我的$AXTI论点已经从$12涨到$50三个月后…… 我免费分享我所有的思考过程。 市场可以立即或以任何方式定价任何阿尔法。（我也会出错，尤其是像$ETOR这样从$65跌到$33的股票）。 然而，不是原来的模式——分析师以$2000+的价格向其他对冲基金出售论点，让他们慢慢建仓。 然后散户在$400亿+的估值买入，正如$Lite所呈现的那样。 我的账号之所以增长，是因为我是少数打破这种模式的分析师之一。我向所有人免费分发新颖的信息综合。 股票是正和游戏，如果论点方向正确，每个人都会受益。 （引用推文内容： $SIVE今天上涨+73.78%（市值$2.31亿）。 市场正在定价关于下一个潜在$Lite光子学的信息综合。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要从当前光学瓶颈中受益。 $SIVE的另一个激光源则是为即将到来的CPO/硅光子学瓶颈准备的。 Lumentum目前主要从$Nvidia和超大规模云服务商确保EML激光器产能中获益，用于当前可插拔光学收发器周期。 从当前EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在购买任何800G/1.6T收发器及以下上游产能： - $AAOI（内部供应） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） - $COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 接下来是什么？ 硅光子学和共封装光学。 向CPO的架构转换需要大量高功率CW DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能会引发容量需求的突然范式转变。 $SIVE受益于InP CW DFB激光器用于SiPh和CPO： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET采购$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装。 然后它们向上输给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（采购$POET的中介层）。 然而，如果你往上游追溯，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光源引擎（$SIVE）；硅光子学封装（$POET等）是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未到来。但我们知道它正在逼近。 正如当前光学收发器周期所见： - $LITE和$COHR的光源比专注先进封装的$FN等公司获得更高的估值。 市场一直关注$POET，但错过了它们获得类似$SIVE类型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括面临$Lite、$COHR、$AVGO等多源竞争。所以，再强调一次，请自己做研究。 但我反对这种观点的理由是： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求，在它们成名之前（有点像$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在容量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在优势抵消了这一点。 稀释风险以扩大产能，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做了$Lite的论点，至今仍喜欢这只股票用于Google TPU增长/OCS。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为我个人的CW DFB激光器敞口，用于新的光子学架构转换。 我分享自己的想法，捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期的轮动。）
英文原文
Normally don’t respond to trolls, but the hypocrisy on this platform is pretty impressive. Random X retail: “Why didn’t you tell me about $LITE before it went up 1000% already?” Me: “Posts my thesis about the next possible $LITE at the very beginning, without paywalls.” X retail: 😡, “I’m going to pay $400 for a paywall to long $ADBE and short $PLTR instead”. Especially after my $AXTI thesis that already went from $12->$50 in 3 months... I distribute all my thought processes for free. And markets can price in any alpha immediately or however they want. (I get things wrong as well, especially with names like $ETOR that crashed from $65 to $33). However, instead of the original model where analysts sell a thesis for $2000+ to other hedge funds to slowly accumulate. Then retail buys at $40 billion+ as seen with $LITE. My account’s been growing because I’m one of the few analysts to break that model. And I distribute novel information synthesis for free to everyone. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.
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$SIVE是硅光子/CPO架构转变中的InP CW DFB激光器核心供应商，可能复制$LITE的估值扩张路径。
$SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 市场正在对下一个潜在的 photonics 瓶颈进行信息综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则面向即将到来的CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商那里获益，这些公司正在确保EML激光器的产能，用于当前的可插拔(optical transceiver)光收发器周期。 从当前的EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T光收发器及上游产能，从： -$AAOI（内部供应） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(Co-Packaged Optics,CPO)。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率连续波(CW) DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能引发一次完全的、突然的需求量范式转变。 $SIVE受益于用于SiPh和CPO的磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET使用$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装(advanced packaging)。 然后它们向上输送给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（后者购买$POET的interposers）。 然而，如果你追溯到上游，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光引擎($SIVE)；硅光子学封装($POET等)是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未达到。但我们知道它即将到来。 正如从当前光收发器周期所见： -$LITE和$COHR的光源需求获得的估值远高于$FN等专注先进封装的公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但错过了它们获取Starlight实际$ITE型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括与$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等公司面临多源竞争。所以再次强调，请务必做自己的研究。 但我对此的反驳： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求——早在这两家公司变得流行之前（类似于$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在成功可以抵消这一点。 为扩大产能而稀释股权的风险，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做过$LITE的研究，仍看好这只股票用于Google TPU ramp/光电路开关(OCS)。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为新一轮光子学架构转变的个人CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期轮动的思考。
英文原文
$SIVE is now up +73.78% today ($231M MC). As markets price in information synthesis of the next potential $LITE of photonics. If I had to explain the difference: One laser source in Lumentum primarily benefits from current optical bottlenecks. The other in $SIVE is for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonic bottleneck. Lumentum is largely benefiting right now from $NVDA and hyperscalers securing capacity of EML lasers for current pluggable optical transceivers cycles. As seen with the current EML bottleneck, hyperscalers are buying out any 800G/1.6T transceiver + upstream capacity from: - $AAOI (in-house) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers + design) -> $FN (assembly) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers) -> Innolight / Eoptolink What's next? Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics. The architectural shift to CPO requires massive arrays of high-power CW DFB lasers. And this would likely trigger a complete, sudden paradigm shift in volume demand. $SIVE benefits from InP CW DFB lasers for SiPh and CPO: The up and coming companies like: $AYAR, $POET source $SIVE lasers, but primarily do advanced packaging. Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers). However, if you go upstream, the light source is $SIVE. CW DFB lasers are light engine ( $SIVE ); the silicon photonics package ( $POET and others) is how it gets transmitted. CPO scale is not there yet. But we know it's coming. And as seen with current optical transceiver cycles: - Light sources from $LITE and $COHR demand much higher valuations than companies like $FN that focus on advanced packaging. Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight. The risks are present including facing multi-source competition with $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others. So again, make sure to do your own research. But my argument against that: Sivers been early enough to tailor custom lasers to fit $POET, Ayar, and other specifications before they got popular (sort like the $POET to $MRVL Celestial analogy). There's volume risks as well: But the potential Win Semi qualification offsets that. Dilution risk to scale capacity, is always present with every early-stage company as well. I did my thesis on $LITE last year and still love the stock for Google TPU ramp/OCS. But this year, I'm focusing on: $SIVE, as my personal CW DFB laser exposure for the new photonics architectural shift. I’m sharing my own thoughts on capturing the rotation from the current EML cycle to the upcoming CW DFB/Silicon Photonics cycle.
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
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认为 MRVL 太大，更偏向把它看作 MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产受益，而不是光子故事。
@kingcoinmatt $MRVL 太大了。 如果要买，我会买它的 $MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产逻辑，而不是像 Celestial 那样的光子逻辑。
英文原文
@kingcoinmatt $MRVL is too big. I would buy them for $MSFT Maia ASIC ramp not photonics like Celestial.
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博主分享光子学供应链投资组合，按风险等级分层推荐多只股票。
我是最早一批覆盖光子学供应链股票的人。 大多数自发布以来涨幅达到100-400%以上。 以下是我的核心论点帖的概要总结： 截至今日“最安全”的多头标的： - $TSEM（高塔半导体） - $SOI（Soitec） - $COHR——随时间推移具有防御性的复利型公司。 Soitec——在硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)架构攀升中拥有基板垄断地位，估值极低（即使近期上涨40%+，可能仍只有1.4倍市净率）。 高塔半导体——2028年市盈率处于十几倍区间，70%以上的产能已被预订，是$NVDA架构合作伙伴，基本上是光子学领域的纯Play版$TSM。 Coherent——在光子学领域基本上覆盖从材料/基板到激光器再到光收发器的全产业链，同时也是许多其他垂直领域的基础供应商。 最高贝塔/极高增长多头标的： $AXTI——与Sumitomo形成磷化铟(InP)双头垄断（后者正面临出口管制），与Vital在上游原料端形成双头垄断。 基本上，AXT处于整个光子学食物链的顶端。出口管制风险确实存在，但我的论点是：如果AXT倒下，那么AI驱动的光子学建设也会崩塌。所以还不如做多AXT。 $AAOI——到2027年收入增长10倍。激光器->设计->组装，美国制造。主要不确定性在于执行能力、扩大从$COHR收购的激光器产能等。 超大规模数据中心运营商的需求都存在。他们能交付吗？我愿意承担这个风险。 $IQE——基本上完全依赖重组和清理债务（市值约2亿美元）。作为$LITE的外延晶圆(epiwafer)知名供应商，其主要竞争对手Landmark估值超过35亿美元。 其现有产能（反应器）潜力存在，但基本上需要成功转型光子学并切断传统业务的拖累，才能实现10倍的重新定价。 风险最高，但也可能有相应的回报。 做多$GOOGL TPU生态系统相关： $LITE——由于光学电路交换机(OCS)垄断地位，其光学相关的物料清单(BOM)占比非常高。 如果你认为谷歌TPU是一个可能最终像$NVDA那样的万亿美元项目，那就做多$LITE。 谷歌计划2026年资本支出1750-1800亿美元，其AI基础设施CTO表示计划逐年增加，可能在未来8年投入1万亿美元。 如果这个计划成立，$LITE相对于未来潜力来说估值极低。当然，他们也向其他超大规模数据中心运营商供应激光器，但我会说它与谷歌增长的关联度更高。 _ 还有许多其他我覆盖过的标的： $POET——我本人不做多，但其4亿美元资产负债表提供了良好的缓冲。我发现从$MRVL攀升中发现的Celestial项目太遥远——例如2028年预计收入5亿美元、2029年10亿美元——对于2026年来说不具实质意义。 这很大程度上取决于他们的中介器(interposers)是否能获得其他超大规模数据中心运营商的认证，而不是通过Marvell走后门——这是主要的看涨逻辑。 $HIMX——我确实发现这个论点略有说服力，作为可能的$TSM共封装光学(CPO)供应商。 但我个人更偏好$SOI，会将更多集中度投入其中（因为Soitec作为已知供应商已基本覆盖整个硅光子学领域，而且刚从下行周期中走出）。 还有很多其他的如$NOK、$SHMN也很有趣，但我个人已将集中度投入到我认为最有说服力的标的。 像$LITE这样的“拥挤标的”并不意味着没有剩余上涨空间。只是在有新消息之前，估值已经更多地被反映进去了。 存在许多“关键供应商”，但供应链中的重要性...与将其转化为极高营收增长（例如$AAOI -> 45亿美元营收）之间存在差异。 但对于光子学敞口的简要总结，我的投资组合大致如下： 高集中度（更安全）： $TSEM晶圆代工、$SOI基板、$COHR全产业链 做多+卖看跌期权组合（高波动性）： $AXTI基板/原料、$IQE外延晶圆、$AAOI光收发器供应链 然后做多谷歌相关$LITE
英文原文
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
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认为 MRVL 受益有限，更看好 Soitec 和 TSEM
@siflower 你从 $MRVL 能拿到的直接敞口其实很有限。Celestial 的收入大约是 2028 年 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元。 Marvell 的大部分收入起量来自到 2028 年的 $MSFT Maia 和 ASIC，不过它依然是一只很棒的多头。 至于 CPO，我觉得 Soitec 和 $TSEM 大概是两个更关键的名字。
英文原文
@siflower You're getting very minimal exposure from $MRVL. Celestial revenue was ~$500m 2028, $1B 2029. Most of Marvell's revenue ramp comes from $MSFT Maia and ASICs toward 2028, but it's an amazing long nevertheless. For CPO Soitec and $TSEM are probably the two.
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指出MRVL在光子学领域的布局，但强调其收入主要依赖ASIC。
@cesarsroy 是的，$MRVL 在光子学领域（如与 Celestial 合作的共封装光学(CPO)）有很多布局。上面应该提到他们的，但我总是把他们和专用集成电路(ASIC)联系在一起，因为那是他们大部分收入的来源，比如 2027 年的 $MSFT Maia。
英文原文
@cesarsroy Yes $MRVL does a lot of stuff in photonics like cpo with celestial. should have included them above, but I always just associate them with asics since that's where majority of their revenue comes from like $MSFT maia in 2027.
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POET 依赖 MRVL 产品，非瓶颈而是高潜力架构赋能者。
前几天我写了一篇关于 $POET 的小文章。他们目前很大程度上依赖 $MRVL 的 Celestial 产品。根据 Marvell 的财报，Celestial AI 的收入预测为 2028 年 5 亿美元，2029 年 10 亿美元（POET 在 Starlight 的物料清单 BOM 中占比可能约为 10%）。我不认为 $POET 是瓶颈环节，而是一个具有高潜力的架构赋能者。
英文原文
I did a small writeup on $POET the other day. They're largely dependent on $MRVL Celestial right now, and from Marvell earnings, Celestial AI revenue projections were $500m 2028, $1B 2029 (poet ~10% BOM starlight maybe) I don't see $POET as a bottleneck, but high potential architectural enabler.
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POET 下行风险低但需等待 2026 下半年，适合有耐心的投资者。
我发现 $POET 的下行风险很低，因为其市值为 10 亿美元，却持有约 4 亿美元现金。此外，$MRVL 在 2028-2029 年商业化爬坡阶段可能不会将其替换掉。话虽如此，$POET 将在很长一段时间内几乎没有收入，因此我个人认为等到 2026 年下半年可能更好。对于现在就有耐心的投资者来说，等待似乎能带来不错的上行空间。
英文原文
I just found $POET to be low downside risk given they're sitting on like $400m cash with a $1B MC. Then $MRVL probably won't swap them out for 2028-2029 commercialization ramp. That being said, will sit on close to $0 revenue for awhile, so I personally found maybe waiting latter half of 2026 is probably better. For others who have the patience now, seems like good upside for the wait.
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分析$POET因$MRVL CPO业务受益逻辑，认为当前估值具备长期风险回报优势。
$MRVL 发布了财报。从电话会议纪要来看： 目标是通过 Celestial 共封装光学(CPO) 收入，在 2028 年实现 5 亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，2029 年达到 10 亿美元 ARR。 $POET 作为备受散户喜爱的 10 亿美元市值中介层(interposer)股票，是此次产能爬坡（Starlight 光源）的主要受益者。 通常，收入加上库存积压会在制造和发货前约 1200 万至 1800 万美元时开始显现。 -> 大部分订单流可能会在 2027 年下半年开始涌入。 对于物料清单(BOM) 成本，估计占比约为 10-15%（推测）。因此，仅 Celestial 项目可能在 2027 年带来约 5000 万至 7500 万美元收入，2028 年营收可能达到 1 亿至 1.5 亿美元。 最大的风险是客户集中度，如果 $MRVL 想要对其光引擎进行双源采购(dual-source)。 但 $POET 和 Celestial 花了数年时间共同开发这种特定的集成方案，因此现在寻找替代方案很可能会推迟 Marvell 2028 年的商业化时间表。 而且 $POET 的上行空间在于它总能找到更多客户。 鉴于 $POET 近期稀释后依然稳健的现金资产负债表，以及热门行业较高的市销率(P/S) 倍数： 随着人们提前布局 2027 年下半年的收入，可能在 2026 年底看到估值重估(re-rating)。 我认为很多散户通常很擅长发现像 $RKLB 这样的“登月”级标的，但很多时候他们入场太早。我的观点是 $POET 也是如此。 搭乘那些刚刚触及拐点(如 $AAOI 或 $AEHR) 的股票上涨要容易得多。 但无论如何： 在 6.64 美元的价格下，风险/回报比看起来很有吸引力，尤其是拥有通往超大规模云服务商的 Celestial 后门，前提是投资者有耐心等待一年。 我在查看盈利预测时想到了 $POET。
英文原文
$MRVL released earnings. From transcript: Targeting $500m ARR 2028, $1B ARR 2029 with Celestial CPO revenue. $POET the $1B retail favorite interposer stock, is the large beneficiary from the ramp (Starlight light source). Usually revenue + stockpiles start to hit ~12M-18M ahead for manufacture and shipment -> lot of the flow will start hitting likely h2 2027. For BOM likely est. 10-15% (speculation). So possibly ~$50-75m 2027, from Celestial alone, and $100m-$150M revenue in 2028. Biggest risk is customer concentration, in the event $MRVL wants to dual-source its light engines. But $POET and Celestial spent years co-developing this specific integration, so a workaround now would likely delay Marvell's 2028 commercialization timelines. And the upside is $POET can always find more customers too. Given $POET's solid cash balance sheet from recent dilution + rich P/S multiples for a hot industry: Probably could see re-rating late 2026 once people frontrun h2 2027 revenue. I think a lot of retail are typically good at finding moonshots like $RKLB, but a lot of times they're too early. My opinion is that it's the same for $POET. It's a lot easier ride up stocks that have just hit that inflection point like $AAOI or $AEHR. But regardless: Risk/reward at $6.64 with a Celestial backdoor to hyperscalers seems promising if people have the patience to wait a year. Just thought about $POET when I went through earning projections.
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吐槽今年多条虚假新闻引发市场及半导体板块剧烈波动。
@TheValueist 是的，我已经数不清今年有多少条引发市场波动的虚假新闻被散布出来。 > 关于 $MRVL 客户流失的虚假分析师报告引发了暴跌 > 路透社关于关键矿产的报道引发了暴跌 > 彭博社关于出口管制的虚假新闻引发了半导体板块暴跌 等等。
英文原文
@TheValueist Yeah I’ve lost count of how many market moving false news got put out this year > false analyst report about $MRVL customer loss caused a crash > critical minerals by Reuters triggered a crash > Bloomberg false export control news triggered a semi crash And so on.
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$EWY 波动率异常，期权受 Vega 扩张利好，或唤醒做市商。
是的，如果 $EWY > 每天上下波动 7-10% > 比隐含波动率(IV)高达 93% 的量子公司更剧烈 > 且其 IV 定价比几乎不动的 $MRVL 还低 10% 尽管标的价格下跌，看涨期权(Call)仍受益于 Vega 扩张。这一事件可能会唤醒做市商(MMs) 对于试图在暴跌后加杠杆做多的人来说这很糟糕，但现有头寸受益于 IV 扩张。
英文原文
Yes if $EWY > goes up and down 7-10% a day > more volatile than quantum companies at 93% IV > and IV was priced 10% less than $MRVL that barely moves Calls benefit from Vega expansion despite underlying prices going down. This event will probably wake the MMs up It sucks for people trying to go long on leverage off the drop, but existing positions benefit from iv expansion
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列举AI半导体供应链各环节代表公司及代码
@jahintanvir_ 大概包括这些： 内存 - $MU, 三星, SK海力士, 闪迪 晶圆代工, 封装 - $INTC, $TSM, $AMKR 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI 专用集成电路(ASICs) - $AVGO, $MRVL 连接 - $ALAB, $CRDO 电力/电网 - $XLU 数据中心 - $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF
英文原文
@jahintanvir_ Probably the likes of these: Memory - $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix, Sandisk Foundries, Packaging- $INTC, $TSM, $AMKR Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI ASICs - $AVGO, $MRVL Connectivity - $ALAB, $CRDO Power/Grid- $XLU Datacenters - $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF
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MRVL 依赖 MSFT Maia 放量，看好 2027 长线机会。
@Stefan_Tee8 $MRVL 高度依赖 $MSFT Maia 的放量进程，我可能会将后者作为一个重要的风向标。但我认为它在 2027 年将是极佳的长线标的，关键在于把握合适的入场时机。
英文原文
@Stefan_Tee8 $MRVL is heavily dependent on $MSFT maia ramp and i'd probably use the latter as a large indicator. But I see it being an amazing long for 2027, just need to time it properly.
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认为$EWY隐含波动率被低估，因存储超级周期将带来巨大波动。
我真心认为做市商错误定价了 $EWY 2028 年的隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)，因为它本质上是对三星/SK海力士的看涨期权。 并非每天都能看到一个“非波动性”指数在 45% 的 IV 下每日波动 7%。 相比之下，它比以 55% IV 交易的 $MRVL 波动性大得多（仅比较两者的图表）。 像 Jane Street 这样的做市商可能正在定价均值回归（回到无聊的 5-10 年停滞期），但由于存储超级周期，这种情况永远不会发生。 或者是 ETF 再平衡，这通过传递结构无意中导致了对 SK 海力士和三星的更多集中。 大多数 2 年后的虚值(OTM)行权价在短短 2 个月内就变成了实值(ITM)。 随着 10 倍杠杆的 SK 海力士/三星或 2 倍杠杆 ETF 起飞，还有大量未实现的未来波动性。 如果 IV 保持低位，你可以让看涨期权以低溢价轻松突破行权价。
英文原文
I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it’s effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix. Not every day do you have an “non- volatile” index at 45% IV move 7% a day. For comparison, it’s a lot more volatile than $MRVL trading at 55% IV (just comparing the two graphs) Market makers like Jane Street are possibly pricing in mean reversion (back to the boring 5-10 year stagnant periods) that will never happen due to the memory supercycle. Or ETF rebalancing, which just inadvertently causes more concentration into SK Hynix and Samsung through pass-through structures. Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe. And there’s a lot of unrealized future volatility as 10x leverage SK Hynix/Samsung take off or 2x leveraged ETFs. If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.
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通过多跳关系映射，挖掘光子学上游关键供应商AXTI和IQE的投资逻辑与风险。
-> $LITE 是 $GOOGL 的已知供应商。 -> $IQE 是 $LITE 的已知供应商。 -> $AXTI 是 $IQE 的已知供应商。 Google TPU 和超大规模客户 ASIC 的物料清单(BOM)极其机密。 但即使没人会说 $AXTI 或 $IQE 供应给某家超大规模客户，你也能通过关系映射大致推测出来。 你会惊讶于有多少多跳关系被忽视了。 （引用内容）：我是第一个讨论 $AXTI 与光子学物料清单/供应链关系的人： $IQE 也很有趣，作为少数西方供应商之一。 基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模客户 ASIC 的光子学流向，大概如下（很可能，但未披露）： 光收发器（最高 BOM）： Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ 关键 / $AXTI-> $AXTI/住友/JX -> $IQE (外延晶圆) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (代工) -> $GOOGL TPU Merchant 光学供应链： ~ 关键 / $AXTI -> $AXTI / 住友 / JX -> $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> 中际旭创/新易盛 -> $GOOGL 所以如果你想找光子学 BOM 更上游的“登月计划”型/涨价股：$AXTI 和 $IQE 是必经之路。 $AXTI 此前基本面很差，但最近的 Northland 融资轮确立了其涨势。 $IQE 目前基本面很差（净债务 2350 万英镑），但可能是供应链中最关键的部分。如果他们能出售台湾业务，仅凭其 inp 业务，股价大幅上涨也不足为奇。 有 1800 万英镑可转换票据（几乎可以忽略不计），然后是新发 1.2 亿至 1.54 亿股（~12% 至 15%），相对于当前规模也几乎可以忽略不计。 另一方面，$LITE 和中际旭创可能更成熟。 TLDR: $IQE -> 似乎对西方供应链至关重要，市值 1.3 亿英镑。净债务，如果出售台湾业务 -> 强烈重估，或者他们可能只是稀释你。 但如果台湾业务未能出售，预计会被稀释到像 Wolfspeed 那样。所以风险巨大，务必自行研究风险。 但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说很有趣（我持有 $IQE）。
英文原文
-> $LITE is a known $GOOGL supplier. -> $IQE is a known $LITE supplier. -> $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. Google TPU + Hyperscaler ASIC BOM are extremely confidential. But you can kinda guess from relationship mapping even though nobody will say $AXTI or $IQE supplies to X hyperscaler? You'd be surprised how multi-hop relationships are missed.
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解析光子学上游供应链，看好AXTI与IQE但提示IQE稀释风险。
我是最早将 $AXTI 与光子学(BOM)/供应链联系起来的人： $IQE 也很有趣，作为少数西方供应商之一。 基本上，如果你看 $GOOGL TPU/超大规模ASIC的光子学流程，大概是这样（很可能，但未披露）： 光模块(最高BOM)： Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/住友/JX -> $IQE (外延晶圆) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (代工制造) -> $GOOGL TPU Merchant optical 供应链： ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / 住友 / JX -> $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> 中际旭创/新易盛 -> $GOOGL 所以如果你想找光子学BOM/涨价的“登月型”股票，更上游的光子学BOM：$AXTI, $IQE 是你的方向。 $AXTI 之前基本面很差，但最近的Northland融资轮确立了其涨势。 $IQE 现在基本面很差（净债务2350万英镑）但可能是供应链中最关键的部分。如果他们能出售台湾业务，我不惊讶它会仅因inp业务就大幅上涨。 有1800万英镑可转换票据（这几乎没什么），然后是1.2亿到1.54亿新股（~12%到15%），相对于当前规模也几乎没什么。 另一方面，$LITE 和中际旭创可能更成熟。 TLDR: $IQE -> 似乎对西方供应链至关重要，市值1.3亿英镑。净债务，如果出售台湾业务 -> 强烈重估，或者他们可能只是稀释你。 但如果台湾业务未能出售，预计会被稀释到像Wolfspeed那样。所以巨大、巨大的风险，请自行研究风险。 但 $AXTI 和 $IQE 对我个人来说很有趣（我持有 $IQE）。
英文原文
Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains: $IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers. Basically if you look at photonics flow on $GOOGL TPU/hyperscaler ASICs kinda looks like this (very likely, but undisclosed): Optical Transceivers (highest BOM): Lumentum/Cloud Light: ~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE (Epi-Wafers) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (Contract Manufacturing) -> $GOOGL TPU Merhcant optical supply chain: ~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL So if you want moonshot-type photonics BOM / price-hikes stocks deeper upstream in the photonics BOM: $AXTI, $IQE and your way to go. $AXTI had terrible fundamentals before but the recent Northland fundraising round cemented its run. $IQE has terrible fundamentals now (Net debt £23.5 million) but is probably one of the most critical parts of the supply chain. If they manage to sell their Taiwan operations, wouldn't be surprised if it went up quite a bit just from their inp business. There's £18m convertible notes (which is basically nothing), then there's 120 to 154m new shares (~12% to 15%), which is also kinda nothing relative to current size. On the other hand, others $LITE and Innolight are probably more established. TLDR: $IQE -> seems critical to Western supply chains, $130MC. Net debt, if they sell Taiwan business -> strong re-rating or they might just dilute you anyway. But if the Taiwan business fails to be sold, probably expect to be diluted to oblivion like Wolfspeed. So huge, huge, risk ad do you own research into risks. But $AXTI and $IQE might are personally interesting to me (I do own $IQE).
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博主复盘YTD 316%收益，分享交易策略、核心持仓优势及免费分享初衷。
年初至今：316.4% 从2026年1月到2026年2月。 对我短期交易和多头持仓的回顾： > 年初对像 $GLXY、$SMCI 和 $IREN 这样进行税务收割(tax harvested)的股票进行波段交易(swing traded) > 搭乘委内瑞拉股票从 Gold Reserve、$AVAV 到 $CVX（看涨期权）上涨的顺风车 > 在战争入侵后买入像 $LPTH、$OSS、$AIRO 这样的国防股，以及受“跟随领导者”催化剂驱动的 $ONDS > 对 $INTC 进行催化剂交易，并正确把握了财报时机。 > 因对线色变化(wire color change)的担忧而对 $CRDO 进行波段交易 > 在超大规模客户损失(hyperscaler client losses)被错误报道后对 $MRVL 进行波段交易 > 像 $META 一样正确预判了财报 > 在 $NBIS 和 $CIFR 大幅抛售至 $70 和 $11 时，通过保证金(margin)加仓 > 从 $HOOD 下跌到 $CRDO 下跌再到复苏的过程中进行波段交易。 > 在比特币跌至 $73k 时买入，并在 $62k 时大量使用保证金博取复苏 > 像 $ETOR 这样的复苏股在抛售和财报后表现良好。 > 正确把握了像 $RPI 这样的公司的催化剂 > 利用亚洲股票与欧洲/美国时区之间的时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrages) > 利用 $EWY 和其他指数的隐含波动率扩张(IV expansion) > 把握轮动进入电力/电网股如 $XLU 的时机，目前正对像 $RDDT 这样的股票进行波段交易， 我肯定漏掉了一些，但这些是我主要发布的内容！ 此外，我会进行日内交易(day trade)： 例如 $ORCL 因发行导致8%抛售后的复苏，或 $SOFI 因无关紧要的卖方降级导致随机10%抛售。 我不在主时间线发布这些内容，因为我不想影响人们的买卖决策。 只想提供方向性思路，让人们得出自己的结论。 除此之外，我很高兴今天一切都上涨了，包括我的对冲(hedges)头寸。 与此同时，我的核心多头组合来自： - 从 SK Hynix 到 $AXTI 的光子学(Photonics)和存储，以及像 $AEHR 和 $FORM 这样的供应链瓶颈，其表现远超 Burry 的 $PLTR 每年 $415 的回报。 - 来自韩国/日本股票如 Nittobo、Kioxia 和 Unimicron 的多头持仓，有力支撑了美股回撤。 并非我组合中的所有股票都是绿色的，如 $CRCL、$CPSH、$VLN、$NBIS 或最近的 $INFQ。 但重要的是绿色持仓的集中度高于红色。与此同时，SPY 年初至今仅为 .55%，大多数高贝塔(high beta)股票年初至今大幅下跌。 我也不希望大家跟随我所有的操作，因为板块轮动、期权套利和基板瓶颈(substrate bottlenecks)很难消化。由于我也根据宏观/财报催化剂在约30只股票之间轮动，而大多数人只关注几只并持有数年。 但是，当2025年第四季度的短期回撤（如果人们买了短期期权）出错时，确实让人难受，直到现在才恢复超过平均成本。 然而，我对核心多头如 $NBIS 最终将大幅跑赢市场非常有信心。 希望大家能从中获得一两个有趣的交易思路或学到一些东西！ —— 只是有些反思，我认为我最近受欢迎的一个原因是我没有试图推销任何东西。这也不是我的全职工作（我经营一家科技公司），我只是出于乐趣做这件事，所以对最近的受欢迎程度感到非常惊讶。 我认为我的优势可能是信息综合与映射 -> 发现市场遗漏的阿尔法(alpha) -> 转化为金融科技和半导体领域的可执行多头思路。 与发布突发新闻或擅长拆解一两只特定股票的账户相比。 无论如何，我免费发布所有想法只是为了在能帮助他人时获得满足感。 所以，人们觉得我的想法有趣或信号足够强而愿意倾听，这让我心存感激。
英文原文
Year to Date: 316.4% From January 2026 into February 2026. Reflection of my short term trades and longs: > Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year > Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up > Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst > Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly. > Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears > Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses > Got earnings right like $META > Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11. > Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery. > Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery > Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped. > Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct > Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones. > IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes. > Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT, I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about! On the side I would day trade: Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades. I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell. Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions. Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges. This is all while my core long portfolio from: - Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns. - Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns. Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ. But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD. I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years. But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average. However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time. Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something! —— Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity. I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis. Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks. Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others. So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.
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通过图表目测隐含波动率，利用定价错误加速看涨期权收益。
IV（隐含波动率）是衡量隐含波动程度的指标。你可以通过图表大致进行目测检验。$EWY 每天的波动幅度，甚至超过那些高波动率公司（例如 $MRVL，波动率55%）一周内的波动。有时波动率会被错误定价，如果你能发现这一点，当市场正确重新定价波动率时，你的看涨期权（Calls）上涨速度会快于正常水平。
英文原文
IV is a measurement of implied volatility. You can kinda eyeball test it based on the chart. $EWY moves more in every day than companies with volatility (eg. $MRVL 55%) does a within a week. Sometimes volatility is priced wrong and if you spot that, your calls go up faster than normal when market markets price in volatility correctly.
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$EWY期权IV被低估，杠杆衍生品将推高波动率，看涨期权或受益。
$EWY 看起来即将变得更加波动。 做市商可能没有正确地将跳跃期权隐含波动率(IV)定价，因为 IV 可能会扩张至 55% 以上。 有两个原因源于未实现（但即将到来）的波动性。 - 10 倍杠杆的三星/SK 海力士通过去中心化金融(DeFi) 已经出现，因为它们开始产能爬坡。 如果规模变得很大，这会在期货（如 $EWY）的清算和对冲上产生大量的未实现波动性。 $EWY 由一半的 SK 海力士/三星组成，而韩国指数本身已经非常波动。 - 三星和 SK 海力士的 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF 即将到来 2026 年 1 月，韩国监管机构正式宣布允许国内 2 倍杠杆单只股票 ETF。 同样，这增加了未实现的波动性。 但就目前的期权 IV 定价而言，$EWY 的波动幅度相当极端。 如果非要打个比方，它的百分比波动范围肯定大于 $MRVL（IV 为 55-56%，而 $EWY 仍为 41%）。 三星的对应物可能是 $MU（约 70%），SK 海力士更接近 $SNDK（91%），但可能在 70-80% 范围内。 而且……韩国指数基本上就是 SK 海力士和三星。 随着三星/SK 海力士开始从存储超级周期中重新评级，这种波动性可能会成为新常态。但做市商可能仍然在使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH) 模型或基于长期平均值（当时指数完全平坦）的波动率预测投影。 来自 10 倍杠杆衍生品的数量将仅仅为这些个股的对手方和做市商创造更多的对冲/波动性 -> 这会滞后地反映在 $EWY 的定价中。 简而言之：随着做市商未能正确定价 IV 和未实现波动性，$EWY 看涨期权可能会从 Vega 扩张中受益。
英文原文
$EWY looks like it's about to get more volatile. Market makers might not be pricing in leap option IV correctly as IV may expand past 55%. Two reasons due to unrealized (but upcoming) volatility. - 10X leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix through Defi are here as they begin ramp-up. This creates a great amount of unrealized volatility from liquidations and hedging on futures like $EWY if this ends up becoming large. $EWY is half Sk Hynix / Samsung, and the South Korean index is already really volatile. - 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs for Samsung and SK Hynix are coming In January 2026, South Korean regulators officially announced they will permit domestic 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs. Again, this just adds to unrealized volatility. But as it stands right now regarding option IV pricing. $EWY moves pretty extreme amounts. If I had to give a comparison, it definitely moves in greater % ranges than $MRVL, which sits at 55-56% IV (while $EWY is 41% still). Samsung's equivalent is probably $MU (70%-ish), Sk Hynix is closer to $SNDK (91%) but likely in 70-80% range. And... South Korea's index is basically just Sk Hynix and Samsung. This volatility would likely be the new norm as Samsung/SK Hynix begin their re-rating from the memory supercycle. But MMs are still probably using garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages (where index was completely flat) And the amount of leveraged derivatives from 10x will just create more hedging/volatility on these individual stocks from counterparties and market makers -> that gets priced in late to $EWY. TLDR: $EWY calls likely benefit from vega expansion as MMs aren't pricing in IV and unrealized volatility correctly.
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看好DeepSeek带动CXL需求，推荐关注ALAB、AVGO和MRVL。
如果你看好带有 Engram (v4) 的 DeepSeek 大语言模型，做多 CXL (Compute Express Link) 似乎是个不错的想法。 - $ALAB (Leo) - $AVGO - $MRVL 是美国市场的三大巨头。 尤其是 Astera。 如果它成为一种新的架构范式，像 Astera 这样的公司可能会销售数百万个全新的 CXL 控制器来管理外部内存池。 话虽如此，许多关于 DeepSeek 的报道通常夸大其词（内部基准测试与实际表现不同），它可能仅被用于离线批处理。 近期的全面下跌为这三家公司提供了良好的机会。
英文原文
If you're bullish on DeepSeek LLMs with Engram (v4), going long on CXL seems like a idea. - $ALAB (Leo) - $AVGO - $MRVL are your big three in the US. Especially Astera. If it becomes a new architectural paradigm, companies like Astera maybe would sell millions of net-new CXL controllers to manage the external memory pools. That being said, lot of reports are usually sensational around DeepSeek (internal benchmarks perform different than IRL), and might just be relegated to offline batch processing Recent drop across the board presents a good opportunity for these three.
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澄清 Marvell 非存储核心，其 SSD 控制器业务占比远小于定制 ASIC。
@InnatS__ $MRVL 并不是存储交易的核心。三星、SK 海力士和美光才是。Marvell 通过 Bravera 提供 SSD 控制器，但这部分收入与其定制 ASIC 相比仅占很小比例。
英文原文
@InnatS__ $MRVL is not the center of the memory trade. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are. Marvell does SSD controllers through Bravera and it’s only a small portion of their revenue compared to custom asics
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存储需求结构性短缺，推理瓶颈在存储，中国产能无外溢。
群联电子(Phison) CEO关于存储与投资框架的访谈摘要： “收过路费者”（Toll Collectors）： - 美光(Micron) ($MU) - SK海力士(000660.KS) - 三星电子 - 西部数据(Western Digital) ($WDC) - $SNDK T2层级： - $MRVL - $SIMO - 群联电子(Phison Electronics) 随着AI向边缘端迁移，设计连接存储与计算逻辑/软件控制器的公司将捕获巨大价值。 T3层级： - 纯存储(Pure Storage) ($PSTG) - NetApp ($NTAP) - 希捷(Seagate) ($STX) 随着Vera Rubin推理服务器推出，键值缓存(KV Cache)和数据生成的爆发将触发针对数据中心存储密度和高容量企业级固态硬盘(Enterprise SSDs)的硬件升级周期。 有趣的是：$EBAY（翻新电子产品）可能成为受益者。 - 做空/规避低毛利消费硬件。 - 做空/规避未对冲的汽车/IoT制造商。 主要Alpha观点： - “三年预付”现金流：存储晶圆厂要求3年现金预付款以保障供应。 - 推理瓶颈在于存储而非GPU：单批次1000万台$NVDA Vera Rubin平台需每台20+TB SSD，仅此项就将消耗去年全球NAND产能的20%。 - “中国供应过剩”看空论调已死： Pan完全驳斥了关于长江存储(YMTC)和长鑫存储(CXMT)的观点。中国内部AI需求巨大，将瞬间消化100%国内产量。不会有廉价中国存储流入全球市场来拯救西方硬件OEM。 访谈TLDR： 存储需求是结构性的。供应端无结束迹象。$INTC CEO上月已确认此点。
英文原文
TLDR of Phison CEO interview on Memory and Investment Framework: "Toll Collectors": - Micron ( $MU ) - SK Hynix (000660.KS) - Samsung Electronics, - Western Digital ( $WDC ) - $SNDK. T2: - $MRVL - $SIMO - Phison Electronics Companies that design the logic/software controllers connecting memory to compute will capture massive value as AI moves to the edge. T3: - Pure Storage ( $PSTG ) - NetApp ( $NTAP ) - Seagate ( $STX) As Vera Rubin inference servers roll out, the explosion in KV Cache and data generation will trigger a massive hardware upgrade cycle specifically focused on data center storage density and high-capacity Enterprise SSDs. Hilariously: $EBAY (refurbished electronics), might be a beneficiary. - Short / Avoid Low-Margin Consumer Hardware. - Short / Avoid Unhedged Auto/IoT Makers Main alpha points: - The "3-Year Prepayment" Cash Flow. Memory foundries are demanding 3 years of cash prepayments to guarantee supply. - The Inference Bottleneck is Storage, Not GPUs. A single 10-million-unit run of $NVDA Vera Rubin platform requires 20+TB of SSD per unit, which alone would consume 20% of last year's global NAND capacity. - The "Chinese Supply Glut" Bear Thesis is Dead: Pan entirely dismisses this point around YMTC and CXMT. China’s internal AI demand is so massive that it will instantly swallow 100% of its domestic production. No cheap Chinese memory will leak into the global market to rescue western hardware OEMs. TLDR from the interview: Memory demand is structural. No supply end in sight. $INTC CEO confirmed this last month.
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供应链瓶颈等权重组合周涨12.83%，全红表现惊人。
基于供应链映射的“瓶颈ETF”。 没有一只股票是红色的（下跌）。 等权重组合1周收益：+12.83%。 名单： $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% 我觉得机构是不是直接把上周框架里的这份名单全买了？ 这种表现水平简直太疯狂了。
英文原文
The "Bottleneck ETF" from supply chain mapping. Not a single name red. Equal weighted results 1W: +12.83%. List: $LITE: +31.68% $AMKR: +28.7% Disco: +24.35% $GLW: +23.57% $COHR: +23.5% $ONTO: +18.4% $CAMT: +17.7% $TSM: +15.8% $ON: +15.8% Samsung: +15.4% $KLAC: +12.7% $APH: +11.6% $MRVL: +11.4% $MU: +10.6% $MOD: +10.6% Sk Hynix: +10.31% $VICR: +9.6% $AVGO: +9.46% $SBGSY: +9.27% $ETN: +9.1% $BESIY: +8.53% $IFNNY: +7.37% $MPWR: +6.85% $SNDK: +6.4% $QLCM: +6.12% $AMD: +6.01% Mediatek: +6% Kioxia: +3.68% $INTC: +1.62% I feel like institutions just bought this entire list from last week's framework? This level of performance is pretty crazy.
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梳理AI半导体供应链瓶颈，看好存储、光子及台积电，指出中游为定价关键。
以下是我对 Semivision 瓶颈总结的 TLDR（太长不看版）及其映射到投资框架的内容： HBM（高带宽内存）： HBM4 (16Hi) - 三星，SK 海力士，$MU HBF（高带宽闪存）- $SNDK，Kioxia Base Die（基础晶圆）- $TSM，三星（内部） CPO（共封装光学）/光子学： 玻璃基板：$GLW，$INTC，Ibiden 光学：$LITE，$AVGO，$COHR，$MRVL 电力传输： 电压：$MPWR，$VICR 散热：$VRT，$NVT，$MOD 电网：$ETN，$SBGSY SiC/GaN（碳化硅/氮化镓）：$ON，$IFNNY 机架：$APH N2 产能： $TSM，$AMD（数据中心先行者），$QLCM，联发科，$NVDA 先进封装： 良率：$CAMT，$ONTO，$KLAC OSATs（外包半导体组装与测试）：$AMKR $BESIY，Disco Semivision 的总结： 1. “先进封装产能与良率控制” 2. “HBM 生态系统协调” 3. “电力传输创新（SiC、GaN PMICs、机架级电源架构）” 4. “CPO/光子学集成能力” 5. “数据中心基础设施作为半导体收入实现的‘隐性限制因素’” 正如你可能知道的，我对上述的存储/光子学领域（如 SK 海力士/三星，$SNDK，$MU，$LITE）以及 $TSM 最为看好。 我可能会稍微向上游延伸，比如 $AXTI（磷化铟前驱体），但中游玩家是瓶颈所在，并掌控大部分定价权。 但为了简化普通散户投资者的理解，我添加了相关公司的评论。
英文原文
Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary: HBM: HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal) CPO/photonics; Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL Power Delivery: Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY Rack: $APH N2 Volume: $TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA Advanced Packaging: Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC OSATs: $AMKR $BESIY, Disco Semivision's summary: 1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control" 2. "HBM ecosystem coordination" 3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)" 4. "CPO/photonics integration capability" 5. "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization" As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM. I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing. But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.
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看好MRVL因绑定MSFT ASIC及光子学，但个人因放量推迟暂不持仓。
完全同意。我确实看好 $MRVL。他们与 $MSFT 的专用集成电路(ASIC) 放量紧密绑定，并且正如你提到的，在 Celestial 之后涉足光子学等许多热门领域。去年有报道称 Maia 200 推迟了约 6 个月。我目前并未持有 $MRVL，因为我个人正在等待 H2（这只是我个人的看法），因为财务放量要等到今年晚些时候才进入 2027 年。
英文原文
Absolutely. I do like $MRVL. They're especially tethered to $MSFT ASIC ramp and seem to be touching upon a lot of hot areas like photonics like you mentioned after Celestial. There were reports last year that Maia 200 was pushed back by about 6 months. I don't have $MRVL right now, since I'm personally waiting for H2 (thats just me), since financial ramp starts later this year into 2027.
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超大规模云厂商AI资本支出激增，利好上游半导体供应链，建议坚守基本面做多。
市场正遭受AI资本支出(AI capex)冲击的洗礼。 这实质上是超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers)与外国之间的一场AI军备竞赛。 2025年至2026年间，资本支出(capex)增长如下： $GOOGL：从910亿-930亿美元增至1750亿-1850亿美元 $AMZN：从1250亿美元增至约2000亿美元 $META：从720亿美元增至1150亿-1350亿美元 $MSFT：从1100亿美元增至1500亿美元 $TSLA：从85亿美元增至200亿美元以上 当谷歌表示其年度支出（用于数据中心、TPU、基础设施）从去年的920亿美元激增至1850亿美元时，这一规模是巨大的。 $AMZN等公司的资本支出预测涵盖机器人到太空领域，情况不一，但同一家内存公司和半导体公司实际上能从中双重受益。 市场可能不欣赏$GOOGL如此巨大的支出，但上游AI供应链 certainly 乐见其成。 尤其是那些最明显受益的公司，例如： 专用集成电路(ASICs)：$AVGO（谷歌TPU、Meta MTIA等） 内存：SK海力士、三星、美光 $TSM（没有台积电你造不出“上帝”） $NVDA（训练） 每个建设项目中都有隐藏的受益者（例如$MSFT带动的$AAOI，$MRVL带动的$POET，$GOOGL带动的$LITE）。但有时，像内存或$TSM这样显而易见的“傻瓜式”标的反而就是最好的选择。 判断AI交易是否持续的最大信号是超大规模云服务商的支出： 而他们刚刚彻底超出了所有预期。 在AI建设浪潮中保持做多，基本面比宏观环境和短期流动性冲击更重要。
英文原文
Markets have been hit with an AI capex shock. This is effectively an AI arms race between hyperscalers and foreign nations. Between 2025 to 2026, capex has increased from: $GOOGL: $91B - $93B to $175B – $185B $AMZN: $125B to ~$200B $META: $72B to $115B-$135B $MSFT: $110B to $150B $TSLA: $8.5B to $20B+ When Google says they are spending $185 Billion in 1 year (on DCs, TPUs, infrastructure), from $92B the previous year, that is enormous. Capex projections like $AMZN are mixed from robotics to space, but the same memory companies and semiconductors actually benefit twice. Markets might not appreciate $GOOGL spending that much but AI supply chains upstream certainly do. Especially the most obvious ones that benefit from most such as: ASICs: $AVGO (Google TPUs, Meta MTIA, etc.) Memory: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron $TSM (You cannot build God without TSM) $NVDA (training) There's hidden beneficiaries in each buildout (eg. $AAOI with $MSFT to $POET with $MRVL, $LITE with $GOOGL). But sometimes, the braindead obvious plays like memory or $TSM are are just the best. The biggest signal of whether the AI trade continues is hyperscaler spending: And they just blew all expectations out of the room. Stay long in the AI buildout, fundamentals matter more than macro and short term liquidity shock.
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澄清AVGO与MRVL因ASIC收入确认时点被误读，看好当前买入机会。
$AVGO 因 ASIC（专用集成电路）积压订单被抛售，但市场误解了其收入确认时点。$MRVL 的逻辑稍显合理，因为据报道微软的 Maia ASIC 延迟了 6 个月，因此收入确认可能会推迟。显然，如果你现在买入并持有一年，就不需要择时，但我在这里也喜欢这两只股票。
英文原文
$AVGO got sold off bc of their ASIC backlog but markets misunderstood how recognition timing works. $MRVL makes a tiny bit more sense bc of Microsoft reportedly had a 6M delay with their Maia asics so revenue recognition might be delayed. Obviously don’t need to time the market if you buy now and just wait a year but I like them both here too
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做多AEHR博弈存储与光子机会，MRVL因客户ASIC延期推迟至下半年建仓。
我目前做多 $AEHR，以防三大存储巨头将其用于 HBM DRAM 裸片老化测试，或超大规模云厂商扩大 Sonoma 的使用。此外，硅光子学也是另一个关注领域。因此，这更像是一个投机性的“登月”选择，旨在观察其能否与 Advantest 和 $TER 竞争。至于 $MRVL，我喜欢它，但我认为更适合等到 2026 年下半年再建仓。有报道称 $MSFT Maia 路线图延迟了约半年，而 Marvell 预期的收入增长很大一部分依赖于该超大规模云厂商的特定 ASIC 项目。因此，我将在今年晚些时候重新评估它。
英文原文
I'm actually long $AEHR right now in the event any of the big three memory companies use them for HBM DRAM die burn in or hyperscalers expands Sonoma usage. Then there's silicon photonics, which is another area of interest. So it's more of a speculative moonshot pick to see if it can compete with Advantest and $TER. As for $MRVL, I like it but I find it more of a wait until H2 2026 long. There were reports $MSFT Maia faced roadmap longer delays by like half a year and a large part of marvell's expected revenue growth is tethered to this specific hyperscaler ASIC program. So I'll revisit it later on in the year.
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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POET 暴跌后作者认为估值合理，虽认为时机稍早但选择逢低买入。
$POET 在直接发行 1.5 亿美元股份（发行价 7.25 美元）后暴跌 17%。 考虑到新增 2060 万股，其市值约为 10.2 亿美元，目前手握约 4.2 亿至 4.5 亿美元的现金储备（war chest）。 在我看来，这是一个不错的机会，因为机构发行价为 7.25 美元。 Poet 的光学中介层（optical interposers）是解决磷化铟（InP）瓶颈的真正方案，且拥有超大规模云服务商（hyperscaler）的后门渠道。特别是因为他们向 $MRVL 的 Celestial 光子网络（photonic fabric）供应 Starlight 产品。 我认为公司提前了 5-8 个月，所以我个人没有做多。 但我个人在这个价位买入，以利用这次下跌。
英文原文
$POET has crashed 17% after a direct offering of $150m in shares at $7.25. They’re now sitting on a ~$420-$450m war chest with a ~$1.02B MC factoring in 20.6M new shares. IMO this is a decent opportunity as the institutional offering price was $7.25. Poet’s optical interposers are a genuine bottleneck fix to InP and they have a hyperscaler backdoor. Especially because they supply Starlight to $MRVL Celestial photonic fabric. IMO company is 5-8 months a bit early so I’m not personally long. But I personally ended up buying at this level to take advantage of the drop.
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分析UMAC基本面优势，对比AIRO，认为两者均有上行空间。
很棒的选择。$UMAC 是一个很好的长线标的。我之前研究时选择了 $AIRO，但很难得有一家市值 5.2 亿美元、拥有 1.33 亿美元现金且无债务、毛利率 40%、同比增长 55%+ 的制造商。它是通过 $RCAT 向 $AVAV 供货的供应商。类似于 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。因此上行空间很大，我个人仍然更喜欢 $AIRO，但各有所好！
英文原文
Great choice. $UMAC is a great long. I ended up going with $AIRO when I looked into it earlier but it’s rare you have a $520m mc manufacturer that has - $133m cash, no debt - 40% gross margins - growing 55%+ y/y As a supplier to $AVAV through $RCAT. Similar to $POET $MRVL situation. So lot of upside, I still like $AIRO a lot more personally but to each their own!
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认为纸巾转卖商增长不能和 MRVL 相比
@RickyFrogFrog 对……大家确实还需要卫生纸。 话虽如此，我不认为转卖纸巾能获得和 $MRVL（29 倍 PE）一样的增长估值；后者两年内收入会翻倍。
英文原文
@RickyFrogFrog yeah.. everyone still needs toilet paper. That being said, don't think reselling tissue paper commands the same growth as $MRVL (29 p/e), which are doubling their revenues in 2 years.
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尽管微软下调预期，仍看好AAOI长期必然性，建议等待。
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI 与 $MSFT Maia 项目深度绑定，而微软刚刚大幅下调了预期（这就是为什么 $MRVL 今天跌了 4%）。 尽管如此，我依然非常看好它，因为这更多是必然趋势，只是存在执行层面的不确定性，只需等待一两年即可。
英文原文
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI is heavily tethered to $MSFT Maia and they just heavily lowered estimates (hence why $MRVL went down 4% today). I still really like it regardless since it’s more of an inevitability minus execution uncertainty, just need to wait it out for a year or two.
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CRDO为基于误传的波段交易，下跌或成做多良机
@LongInnovation $CRDO 对我来说不是一个大仓位。这更多是基于关于客户即将转向 $MRVL 的错误信息以及一些主题演讲的混乱情况而进行的波段交易。但这次下跌可能会为其他想做多的人提供一个有吸引力的入场点。
英文原文
@LongInnovation $CRDO is not a big position for me. More of a swing trade based off misinformation posted about customer about to $MRVL and some keynote shenanigans. But the drop might present an attractive entry point for others who want to go long.
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质疑MRVL AEC竞争力，看好CRDO增长，预期光学瓶颈将延长铜缆寿命。
我的意思是，$MRVL 自 2022 年以来难道没有宣布过四次左右像 Alaska A 这样的 AEC（有源铜缆）杀手吗？我把它当作 $AMD 宣称每一代发布最终都要击败 $NVDA 来看待。 $CRDO 的财报和预测一直在以惊人的速度增长，尽管 Marvell 会是严肃的竞争对手（但如果 Marvell 起飞，两者仍有共存空间）。 我认为光学是最大威胁，但我一直预期 $AXTI 的光学组件会出现巨大的光学瓶颈，因此超大规模云厂商很可能被迫延长铜缆的使用寿命。
英文原文
I mean hasn't $MRVL announced an AEC killer with Alaska A like 4+ different times now since 2022? I treat it like $AMD saying they'll finally beat $NVDA with each gen release. $CRDO's earnings + projections just keeps growing at insane rates, though Marvell would be a serious competitor (but room for both if Marvell takes off). I see optical as the biggest threat, but I've been expecting a huge optical bottleneck for opticals components w/ $AXTI, so hyperscalers will likely be forced into copper life extension.
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博主回复称多数持仓及存储股今日表现强劲，普涨。
@soulbiri1 大多数东西开局都不错，哈哈。$CRWV、$CIFR 和 $AAOI 均上涨超过 10%。$NBIS 上涨 7%，$SMCI 上涨 6%，$MRVL、$MSTR、$TSM 上涨 5%。你所有的存储(Storage)股票每天都上涨 8%。除了少数几只，到处一片绿色(上涨)。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Most things are off to a good start lol. $CRWV, $CIFR, to $AAOI both up over 10%. $NBIS up 7%, $SMCI up 6%, $MRVL, $MSTR, $TSM up 5%. All your memory stocks are up 8% every day. Green everywhere aside from a few
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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利用年末税务收割导致的超跌，寻找基本面完好标的博取一月效应反弹。
新年快乐！ 最奇怪的“季节性异常”是均值回归反弹的“一月效应”。 寻找那些被严重抛售的股票，例如在3个月图表上跌幅分别为-53.9%的 $MSTR、-41.9%的 $HIMS 或 -38.63%的 $SMCI，或者像年初至今(YTD)下跌-25%的 $SNAP 和下跌-23%的 $MRVL 这样的公司。 主要候选标的拥有强劲的未来盈利预期，但股价却大幅下跌，例如Snapchat（涉及Perplexity、记忆变现等概念）、SMCI（未来同比增长50%以上，但因Q1至Q2积压订单延迟而下跌），或Marvell（未来Maia系列将带来三位数的收入增长）。 年末税务收割(Tax Harvesting)正在市场全面生效，这造成了人为的下行压力。 因此，当你在寻找新年折扣时，务必检查基本面是否真的没有大问题。（例如，MSTR因面临MSCI除名风险而风险更高） 但历史上，如果这些股票因年末税务亏损而加速抛售，它们往往会在年初第一个月率先上涨。这一趋势为交易者提供了最具回报的机会之一。
英文原文
Happy New Year! The strangest “seasonal anomaly" is the January Effect for mean reversion rallies. Look for beaten down names like $MSTR -53.9%, $HIMS -41.9%, or $SMCI -38.63% on 3M charts or companies like $SNAP -25% YTD, $MRVL -23% YTD The primary candidates have strong forward earnings, but are down like Snapchat (perplexity, memory monetization), SMCI (50%+ forward y/y growth but dropped on q1->q2 backlog delay), or Marvell with triple digit revenue growth from Maia down the road. The EoY tax harvesting is in full effect for the markets and this causes artificial downward pressure. So, while you’re shopping for new year discounts, make sure to check there isn’t something fundamentally too broken. (Eg. MSTR is more risky because of MSCI delisting) But, historically, these tend to rise first month of the year if they had accelerated sell offs due to end of year tax losses. This trend presents one of the most rewarding opportunities for traders.
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驳斥分析师误判，强调Marvell在XPU设计上的营收潜力。
是的，很好的笔记。仅这一点就反驳了分析师声称 $MRVL 仅做连接业务，而将实际设计输给 Alchip 等竞争对手的说法。 机构分析师如何散布此类虚假信息，因称 Marvell 仅做连接业务而抹去 $100 亿+市值或 14-20% 的股价，引发机构研报的连锁反应，然后在上周无人关注时又说“只是开玩笑”，这太疯狂了。 “来自 XPU 设计的 2028 财年营收已相当可观”这一点也至关重要。
英文原文
Yeah great note. That alone addresses the analyst claims $MRVL was only doing connectivity while losing the actual design to a competitor like Alchip too. How institutional analysts can spread misinformation like this, wipe off $10B+ or 14-20% in stock price saying DG because of Marvell was only doing connectivity, send cascading narrator through institutional notes, then say “just kidding” when nobody is paying attention a week ago is wild. “There’s meaningful FY 2028 revenue already too from XPU designs” pretty important to read too.
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批评机构误报，认为忽略噪音后MRVL是稳健长线标的。
$POET 通过 Celestial 间接受益于 $MRVL。此外还有大量与 Maia 绑定的其他光子学玩家，如 $AAOI。 但时间线简直荒谬，让我很恼火： 12月8日：Benchmark 下调评级，声称“高度确信”Marvell 输掉了 Trainium 3/4 给 Alchip。 12月9日：股价下跌约10%，CEO 上 CNBC 称“我们没丢失任何业务”。 12月23日：Benchmark 悄悄收回说法。Marvell “保留份额”，Alchip 仅增加“额外设计支持”。 Benchmark 做出此类声明后又在压低股价后悄悄收回，简直不可思议。 The Information 也如法炮制，但他们本就因煽动性报道闻名。 如果你只看数据并忽略新闻报道的噪音，$MRVL 看起来是一个极其稳健的长线标的。
英文原文
$POET indirectly benefits from $MRVL through Celestial. Then there's tons of other photonic players tethered to Maia like $AAOI. The timeline is so stupid though, it makes me annoyed: Dec 8: Benchmark downgrades, claims "high conviction" Marvell lost Trainium 3/4 to Alchip Dec 9: Stock drops ~10%, CEO goes on CNBC saying "we didn't lose any business" Dec 23: Benchmark quietly walks it back. Marvell "retains a position," Alchip added for "additional design support" Just found it insane how Benchmark could make claims like that then silently walk it back after tanking the stock price. Then The Information does the same but they're already known for their sensational journalism. If you just look at the numbers and ignore the noise from news reporting then $MRVL looks like an extremely solid long.
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驳斥MRVL被取代谣言，指出物理限制使其无法短期切换，视抛视为买入良机。
终于深入研究了 $MRVL。 我的第一反应：市场和分析员/新闻到底在抽什么？ 来自 Maia 量产的收入几乎是 $MRVL 2025 财年总收入的两倍。 看数据，这令人震惊： 富邦 (Fubon) 预计 Marvell 仅在 2027 年微软 Maia 量产中就能获得 100-120 亿美元的收入。 作为对比，Marvell 2025 财年收入为 57.7 亿美元。 无论如何看，Marvell 看起来都是博通 (Broadcom) 的强劲竞争对手（在收购 Celestial 之后），也是一个极佳的长线标的。 但是... The Information / Benchmark 发布了新闻称： - 微软正在与博通谈判，以在未来几代产品中取代 Marvell。 - 亚马逊 Trainium 3 和 4 的设计流向了台湾竞争对手 Alchip Technologies。 导致股价大幅抛售。 深入研究后，这怎么可能呢？ “Marvell Technology 股价下跌，因为 Benchmark Equity Research 下调评级， citing 失去亚马逊 AI 芯片业务。” “Benchmark 认为 Marvell 输给了 Alchip，尽管 Marvell 最近预测数据中心增长强劲。” - Trainium 3 的生产已锁定 Marvell 的设计。如果不从头设计全新芯片，你无法“切换”到 Alchip。如果要共享范围，当然可以，但措辞简直糟糕透顶。 $MRVL 已经获得了 $AMZN 整个 2026 年的 Trainium 3 订单，亚马逊为什么要取消所有订单然后选择新供应商？ 可能有不同的范围、额外的设计服务等，但所有新闻的框架听起来像是 $MRVL 被取代了。 Benchmark 自己在造成损害后（通过更多“行业讨论”）大幅收回了说法，称 Marvell 并未完全失去 Trainium 3/4，而是亚马逊增加了 Alchip 作为额外设计支持，而 Marvell 仍保留地位。 但股价已经受损。 至于 The Information 关于 $MSFT Maia 输给博通的报道，这是煽动性新闻。 摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 后来直接出来基本说这是假的，“没有 ASIC 项目份额损失”。 在微软交易上，市场完全错过了“立即取代”和“未来几代”讨论之间的细微差别。 物理规律使得从 Maia 到博通的立即切换不可能，除非有惊人的多年延迟。 现在用博通取代 Marvell 的 Maia 300 需要废弃整个 2nm 掩模集，重新设计 I/O 环，并重启 3 年的验证周期。Marvell 特定的 SerDes IP 也嵌入在芯片的 I/O 环中（重定时器和交换机通信）。如果微软目标是在 2027 年量产 Maia 300，芯片必须在 2026 年中后期进入验证阶段。这意味着物理设计今天已经冻结或接近冻结。 今天（2025 年 12 月）与 $AVGO 的新 ASIC 设计将面临以下最短时间线： - 架构与 RTL（12 个月）：逻辑定义和 IP 选择。 - 物理设计到流片（9-12 个月） - 掩模生产与晶圆厂（3-5 个月）：TSMC 2nm 周期。 - 硅后验证（6-9 个月） 总时间：~30-38 个月。 即使加快几个月，这些“与 $AVGO 的讨论”最早也要到 2028 年才能大规模部署。为了赶上 2027 年的量产时间表，微软必须出货 Marvell 的设计。 此外，微软的机架基础设施使用 Marvell 的“Alaska”重定时器和 DSP 在电缆中。 微软必须： - 重新认证机架中每根电缆和背板的信号完整性。 - 拆下主板上的 Marvell 重定时器并替换为博通版本 还要更改他们的定制液冷机架“sidekick”，这是针对 $MRVL Maia 芯片特定版图分布指定的。$AVGO 芯片会有完全不同的物理版图和热密度，他们需要重新设计机架。 所以当市场计入立即取代风险并基于 TMZ 式的讨论八卦谣言交易时，他们完全是在开玩笑，谣言称微软想探索选项。 $MRVL CEO 甚至出面表示他们手中握有明年全年预测的“采购订单”。2026 年的预测可能偏低，因为 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 的量产都面临延迟。 但如果你看长期 Q4 2026 到 2027，仅从他们的订单和 Maia 300 来看：即使仅估计 ~200 亿美元收入带来 7.72 美元每股收益，30 倍市盈率（之前交易在 35-40 倍），如果是两年后等待，股价将从 85 美元涨到 231.60 美元/股。 所以 TLDR：整个“取代”理论被极其完全地误解了，只是噪音。通常我不会为此写整篇文章，但看到 The Information 和其他新闻一次又一次出现，通过煽动性措辞传播错误信息，这简直疯了。 中期切换在物理上是不可能的，市场误解了取代。所以最近的抛售看起来是一个坚实的买入机会。 至于未来的讨论，当然任何公司都希望供应商多元化。如果 Meta 想从博通多源采购，$MRVL 也可以对 $META MTAI 未来几代做同样的事。 如果仅按单个项目 Maia 300 建模并忽略媒体噪音，$MRVL 看起来非常有前景。
英文原文
Finally took a deeper look at $MRVL. My first reaction: What are the markets and analysts/news smoking? Revenue derived from Maia ramp is literally double $MRVL's FY 2025 revenue. If we look at the numbers, it's staggering: Marvell is modeled to take in $10-$12B in revenue (Fubon) in Microsoft Maia ramp in 2027. Alone. To put that in perspective, Marvell's FY 2025 revenue was $5.77B. No matter how I look at it, Marvell looks like a strong Broadcom competitor (after Celestial acqusition) and a terrific long. But... The Information / Benchmark released news that: - Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom to displace Marvell in future generations. - Amazon Trainium 3 and 4 designs went to Taiwanese competitor Alchip Technologies. causing a massive selloff. After looking into it more, how is this even possible? "Marvell Technology declines after Benchmark Equity Research downgrades the stock, citing a loss of Amazon’s AI chip business." "Benchmark believes Marvell lost Amazon’s Trainium 3 and 4 designs to Alchip, despite Marvell’s recent forecast of strong data-center growth." - Trainium 3 production are locked to Marvell's design. You can't "swap" to Alchip without designing an entirely new chip from scratch. If you want to share scope, sure but the wording is absolutely atrocious. $MRVL already secured Trainium 3 orders from $AMZN throughout 2026, why in the world would Amazon cancel them all and then go with a new vendor? There can be different scope, additional design services, etc. but the framing from all the news sounds like $MRVL is being displaced. Benchmark itself later walked it back materially after causing damage (via more "industry discussions") and said Marvell did not lose Trainium 3/4 outright, but that Amazon added Alchip for additional design support while Marvell retains a position. But the damage has already been done to stock price. As for The Information report on $MSFT Maia loss to Broadcom this is sensational journalism. JP Morgan later literally came out and basically said it's all false, "there has been no ASIC program share loss". On the Microsoft deal, markets completely missed the nuance between "immediate displacement" and "future generation" discussions. The physics of this make an immediate swap impossible from Maia to Broadcom without incredible multiple-year delays. To replace Marvell with Broadcom for the Maia 300 now would require scrapping the entire 2nm mask set, redesigning the I/O ring, and restarting a 3-year validation cycle. Marvell’s specific SerDes Is is also embedded in the chip’s I/O ring (retimers and switches comms). If Microsoft targets a 2027 ramp for Maia 300, the chip must be in validation phase by mid-to-late 2026. This implies the physical design is already frozen or nearing freeze today. A new ASIC design with $AVGO today (Dec 2025) would face this minimum timeline: - Architecture & RTL (12 months): Logic definition and IP selection. - Physical Design to tape ot (9-12 months) - Mask prod & Fab (3-5 months): TSMC 2nm cycle. - Post-Silicon validation (6-9 months) Total Time: ~30–38 months. Even if this is sped up by many months, these "Discussions with $AVGO " not be ready for volume deployment until 2028 at the very earliest. To hit the 2027 ramp timelines, Microsoft must ship the Marvell design. Then there's Microsoft’s rack infrastructure uses Marvell’s "Alaska" retimers and DSPs in the cables. Microsoft would have to: - Re-qualify the signal integrity of every cable and backplane in the rack. - Rip out Marvell retimers from the motherboard and replace them with Broadcom versions As well as change their custom liquid-cooling rack "sidekick", which was specified toward specific distribution of the $MRVL Maia chip’s floorplan. A $AVGO chip would have a completely different physical floorplan and thermal density and they'd need to regineer the rack. So market are completely trolling if when they price in immediate displacement risk and trade on TMZ-style discussion gossip rumors that Microsoft wanted to explore options. $MRVL CEO even went out and said they have "purchase orders in hand" for the entirety of the next year's forecast. 2026 forecasts are probably light because $AMZN and $MSFT both faced delays on their ramp. But if you look at longer term Q4 2026 into 2027, we just from their orders and Maia 300 alone: even just estimating $7.72 EPS from ~$20.0B revenue, 30x P/E (they've traded 35-40 before), would be $231.60/share from $85 if you want to wait 2 years. So TLDR: The whole “replacement” theory is extremely completely misinterpreted and is just noise. Normally, I wouldn't write a whole post on it, but seeing The Information and other news pop up again, and again, spreading misinformation through sensational wording is just crazy. There's a physical impossibility of a mid-cycle swap and market misunderstanding of displacement. So the recent sell-off looks like a solid buying opportunity. As for future discussions, of course any company would want vendor diversification. $MRVL can go do the same with $META MTAI future generations too if Meta wants to multi-source away from Broadcom. If you model just by single project Maia 300 alone and ignore media noise, $MRVL looks incredibly promising.
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梳理AI光子学及InP衬底供应链核心标的，涵盖从底层材料到芯片的全链条。
呃，根据我个人的研究，为了全面覆盖我看好的一切： 1. $AXTI 位于整个供应链的最底端，占据 1/3 的磷化铟(InP)衬底和 1/4 的磷化铟(InP)份额。AI 供应链竟然与这只市值 7 亿美元的股票紧密相连，这完全出乎意料。 2. $DOWA + 住友电气，用于在衬底和材料方面进行西方对冲。 3. $AAOI, $LITE 针对超大规模云服务商的芯片，一家服务于 $AMZN/$MSFT，另一家服务于其他客户但更侧重于 $TPU。 4. $MRVL + $AVGO 我认为这就足以捕捉光子学物料清单(BOM)的价值以及磷化铟(InP)供应冲击。 还有一些其他有趣的标的，比如 Landmark Opto，我正在关注。 $POET 没进这个名单，反正你可以通过 $MRVL 获得敞口，除非我漏掉了什么。
英文原文
Uhh, from my own personal research so far, to cover all grounds I’ve liked: 1. $AXTI at the very bottom of the entire supply chain + 1/3rd of InP substrates 1/4th of InP. Completely unheard of that AI supply chain is tethered to this $700m stock. 2. $DOWA + Sumitomo Electric for Western Hedge on substrate + materials. 3. $AAOI, $LITE for hyperscaler chips, one for $AMZN/ $MSFT, the other for everything but more levered to $TPU 4. $MRVL + $AVGO I think that’s kind of all you need to capture photonics BOM value + InP supply shock. There’s some other interesting ones like Landmark Opto that I’m looking at now. $POET didn’t quite make that list and you’d be getting exposure through $MRVL anyway, unless there’s something I missed
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AI供应链瓶颈类似当年锂和HBM，衬底及关键组件面临短缺与估值难题。
同意，对于交易者而言，这应该是一个有趣的机会，就像2021年电动车兴起时的锂，或者当前SK海力士和美光的高带宽内存(HBM)，如果人们能早期识别瓶颈的话。 机会众多（$AAOI尽管获得新的超大规模客户订单，年初至今仅上涨2.9%。这与Maia/Tranium等超大规模客户的部署挂钩）。 $MRVL需求极度旺盛，但主要来自Maia在2026年第四季度至2027年的需求，年初至今下跌22%。$POET作为$MRVL扩产的间接受益者。 磷化铟(InP)衬底在整个供应链中普遍短缺。$GOOGL加速TPU部署，利好$LITE，以及$COHR的垂直整合+创纪录积压订单。 像$AXTI这样极其荒谬的玩家，市值仅7亿美元，却几乎是未来AI扩产的单点故障(SPOF)。真不知道该如何给这个估值，哈哈。 $COHR、$LITE和衬底供应商现在正触及产能极限。我们将看到这需要多长时间才能达到像内存那样的极端程度。
英文原文
Agreed, for traders, this should be an interesting opportunity like Lithium in 2021 when EVs came about or HBM currently with Sk Hynix and Micron if people recognized the bottlenecks early. Tons of opportunity ($AAOI only up 2.9% YTD despite new hyperscaler orders. Tied to hyperscaler deployments like Maia/Tranium). $MRVL with extreme demand but mainly in q4 2026, into 2027 from Maia, down 22% YTD. And $POET as an indirect beneficiary of $MRVL ramp too. Shortages throughout the entire supply chain with InP substrates. $GOOGL ramping up TPU which benefits $LITE and vertical integration + record backlog from $COHR Extremely absurd players like $AXTI with a $700m marketcap basically being the single point of failure for the future AI ramp. Not quite sure how you place a value on that lol. $COHR, $LITE and substrate providers are hitting the capacity limits now. We’ll see how much time it takes for his to go to the extremes like memory.
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感谢博主分享关于光子学板块个股的见解。
@crux_capital_ 谢谢，我也很喜欢你关于 $LITE、$POET、$AAOI、$COHR、$MRVL 以及其他光子学(Photonics)参与者的帖子。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ Thanks, love your posts on $LITE, $POET $AAOI $COHR, $MRVL, and other photonic players too
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InP衬底成AI光互连瓶颈，$AXTI/$SMTOY掌控命脉，2026年或致供应链危机。
“磷化铟(InP)瓶颈”：AI基础设施建设的关键瓶颈解析： $NVDA Blackwell、$META MTAI、$GOOGL TPU 和 $MSFT Maia 的产能爬坡，其未来取决于两家市值仅7亿美元的小盘股 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。 如果无法解决 InP 问题，AI“增长”故事将在2026年终结。 原因如下： AI行业正开始向光子学迁移，以部署未来的 ASIC/GPU，因为铜互连已触及物理极限。 然而，超大规模云服务商在这样做时，却将命运押注在了 InP（磷化铟）这一通用材料上，而全球仅有少数工厂能以激光器所需的纯度生产6英寸 InP 晶圆。 以 Google 及其 TPU v7 Ironwood 项目为例： Google 使用光电路交换(Optical Circuit Switching, OCS)，简单来说就是由光构成的交换机。Pod 中的每一个 TPU 进行通信都需要基于 InP 的激光器。与 Google 合作的 $LITE 在很大程度上依赖 InP 衬底（如 AXT/住友）来制造这些激光器。 如果没有这些衬底，Google 的整个 Ironwood 项目不仅仅是“放缓”，而是会直接撞墙。 来自 $NVDA GB 系列、$AMZN Trainium、$MSFT Maia、$META MTAI 的现代 ASIC/GPU 都做出了同样的押注：光是未来的方向。 现在，问题出现了。 整个西方 AI 路线图目前都系于一家市值7亿美元的小盘股和一家单一的日本公司，它们生产了全球光子学所需的大部分 InP 衬底。 目前这是一个双寡头格局（粗略估计 AXT + 住友供应约60%），最近的估计显示约70%+的供应来自住友电气、AXT、Freiberger、JX 和 Visual Photonics Epitaxy（填补剩余缺口）。 无论如何，整个未来的 AI 供应链细如针尖： - Moomoo 研究：InP 市场处于“全球争夺”和“严重供应短缺”状态，NVIDIA GB200 的推出（扩展仍需大量 InP，不仅仅是机架内的 NVL72 通信）。 - 高速收发器的需求目前可能超过供应近两倍（LightCounting） - 看到创纪录的预订，但明确“受限于 InP 激光器的供应”（$COHR CEO Q3 财报电话会） - 麦肯锡：800G 模块存在 40% 到 60% 的缺口，1.6T 模块存在 30% 到 40% 的缺口。 鉴于需求的激增，这些报告可能理解得过于保守。即使按照微软对 Maia 爬坡的预测（据 UBS $MRVL 笔记，2027年 Maia 估计超过100万台），加上未来一年超过200万台 1.6T 收发器，这一体量如此之大，代表了全球衬底产量的双位数百分比。 AI 预期的“指数级增长”即将与关键材料生产的现实发生碰撞。因此，“Ironwood”、“MTIA”和“Maia”的爬坡不仅雄心勃勃，在当前材料限制下可能根本不可能实现。 即使 $COHR、JX 日本、住友、$AXTI 等以最大产能扩产（例如 $COHR / JX -> 6英寸 InP 晶圆产能提升4倍），他们可能仍无法满足超大规模云服务商日益增长的需求。特别是考虑到需求激增，例如仅 $NVDA 自身（GB200/GB300 修订版）的需求。 硅光子学等技术解决方案可以弥合差距，但这仍然主要需要外置 InP 激光器作为光源。TFLN 或量子点激光器还需要很多年才能成熟。 未来几年可能无法摆脱对 InP 的需求。 因此，芯片设计与材料可用性之间的错配创造了一个战略瓶颈，在供应链的最底层，极少数公司控制了大部分配额、定价和供应。当叠加美中关系紧张和出口管制的地缘政治风险时，这尤其危险。 话虽如此，以下是可能发生的事情： - 价格飙升：$AXTI、JX、住友的价格将大幅飙升 -> $LITE、$COHR、中际旭创（也会通过下游传导提高价格） - 超大规模云服务商将直接囤积材料，绕过传统组件采购，直接从 $AXTI、JX 日本、住友购买 InP 衬底库存，并直接委托给像 $LITE 这样的收发器制造商。 （例如，Meta 将绕过收发器公司，直接去找 AXT 或住友） - 超大规模云服务商将买断生产配额（就像 $NVDA 已经积极“锁定”EML 产能（在 InP 衬底上制造）那样）。 购买衬底制造商或生产配额将成为一种必要，以免被 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 等竞争对手饿死。 随着 TPU v7 和其他超大规模云服务商在 2026-2027 年爬坡，我们可能会进入衬底的“饥饿游戏”阶段，每个超大规模云服务商都将为了资源配额而相互吞噬对方的增长。 像 $NVDA（拥有创纪录的预分配量）这样的公司可能暂时没事，但其他项目可能会面临重大延误。 思考： 1. 一些超大规模云服务商可能没事（$NVDA）。其他如 $GOOGL 和 $MSFT 需要在其他人之前买断材料和配额。 2. 行业需要加倍投入工程转型，如延长铜的使用寿命和更节省材料的方式如硅光子学(SiPh)。 3. 转向6英寸晶圆以提高良率（能缓解情况，但仍不足以满足需求） 因此，现状是，数万亿美元的 AI 扩展系于一些不起眼的7亿美元公司 $AXTI 和 $SMTOY。除非架构改变，否则 AI 似乎不可避免地会因 InP 衬底产能而触及物理天花板。 2024年的瓶颈是 GPU。2025年是 HBM。2026年，主要约束很可能是光互连，特别是驱动它们的 InP 衬底。 这已成为 AI 基础设施建设中隐藏的瓶颈。
英文原文
The "InP Chokepoint": The Bottleneck of the AI Buildout explanation: The future of $NVDA Blackwell, $META MTAI, $GOOGL TPU, and $MSFT Maia ramp is tied to: A $700M small cap $AXTI and $SMTOY. The AI "Growth" story ends in 2026 if there's no solution to InP. Here's why: The AI industry started its migrating to photonics for future ASIC/GPU deployments, because copper is hitting a physical limit. However, in doing so, hyperscalers traded the common material for InP (Indium Phosphide), when there's only a few factories capable of producing 6-inch InP wafers at the purity levels required for lasers. Let's take for example Google and their TPU v7 Ironwood program: Google uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), in simpler terms, switchboards made of light. For every one of those TPUs in the pod to talk, they require InP-based lasers. $LITE, which works with Google on this, largely depends on InP substrate (eg. AXT/Sumitomo) to make them. If they don't have it Google's entire Ironwood program doesn't just "slow down", it hits the wall. Modern ASICs/GPUs from $NVDA GB series, $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, $META MTAI have all made the same bet: Light is the way forward. Now, here's the issue. The entire Western AI roadmap is currently tethered to a $700M small-cap and a single Japanese company that produce majority of the world's InP substrates required for photonics. It's currently a duopoly (rough estimates majority supply ~60% between AXT + Sumitomo), with recent estimates of ~70%+ coming from Sumitomo Electric, AXT, Freiberger, JX, and Visual Photonics Epitaxy (filling in the gaps). Regardless, the entire future AI supply chain is thinner than a needle: - Moomoo Research: InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage" NVIDIA GB200 rollout (scale-out still requires tons of InP, not NVL72 within-the-rack comm). - Demand for high-speed transceivers today probably exceeds the supply by almost a factor of two (LightCounting) - Seeing record booking, but explicitly "supply-constrained by InP lasers" ( $COHR CEO Q3 ER) - McKinsey: 40% to 60% shortfall for 800G modules and a 30% to 40% shortfall for 1.6T modules. And these reports are likely understanding + very conserative given the demand ramp. Even going off Microsoft's projections on Maia ramp, ( est. 1M+ Maia by 2027 on UBS $MRVL note), with 2 million+ units of 1.6T transceivers over the next year, this volume is so large it represents a double-digit percentage of global substrate output. The projected "exponential growth" of AI is about to collide with the reality of critical material production. So, the "Ironwood", "MTIA" and "Maia" ramps aren't just ambitious, they may be impossible under current material constraints. Even if $COHR, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, $AXTI, and others, ramp up at maximum capacity (eg. $COHR / JX -> 6-inch InP wafers for 4x capacity), they still might not be able to meet the increasing demand from hyperscalers. Especailly with demand spikes occurring, eg. just for $NVDA alone (GB200/GB300 revisions). There are technical solutions like silicon photonics is one solution to bridge the gap, but this still largely requires an external InP laser as the light source. TFLN or quantum dot lasers are many many years away. There's probably no escaping the InP requirements for the next few years. So, the mismatch between chip design and material availability has created a strategic chokepoint, where if you go to the very bottom of the supply chain, very few companies control a majority of allocations, pricing, and supply. This is especially dangerous when compounded with geopolitical risks on US/China relations + export controls. That being said, here's what's probably what's going to happen: - Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight (also increases prices from pass down) - Hyperscalers will directly stockpile materials, bypassing traditional component procurement and buying InP substrate inventory from $AXTI, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, and directly to consign to transceiver manufacturers like $LITE. (eg. Meta would bypass transceiver companies and go directly to AXT or Sumitomo) - Hyperscalers will buy out production allocation ( like $NVDA that has already aggressively "locked in" EML capacity (manufactured on InP substrates). Buying a substrate manufacturer or production allocation would become a necessity to so others like $NVDA or $GOOGL doesn't starve them out. As TPU v7 and and as other hyperscalers ramp up in 2026-2027, we will likely enter a "hunger games" phase for substrates where only each hyperscaler will be cannibalizing each other's growth for resource allocation. Companies like $NVDA (with record amounts of pre-allocation), might ramp be okay for the time being, but others programs would likely face major delays. Thoughts: 1. Some hyperscalers might be fine ( $NVDA). Others like $GOOGL and $MSFT will need to buy out materials + allocation before others do. 2. Industry needs to double down on engineering shifts like copper life extension and more material efficient ways like SiPh. 3. Move to 6-inch wafers for yields (eases things, but still not enough to meet demand) So the way things are now, the multi-trillion dollar AI scaling are tethered to some obscure $700m company $AXTI and $SMTOY. It seems inevitable that AI will hit the physical ceiling because of InP substrate capacity unless architectures change. In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it was HBM. In 2026, the primary constraint will likely be the optical interconnect, and specifically, the InP substrates that power them. This has now become the hidden bottleneck of the AI buildout.
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解析微软Maia 300供应链，指出AAOI和MRVL为光模块核心受益者。
个人研究：$MSFT Maia 300 供应链。 根据 $MRVL 的报告，瑞银(UBS)预计2027年前 Maia 出货量将超100万颗。 预计 Maia ASIC 量产将带来超180亿美元流向供应商。 资金流向如下： 1. $MRVL - 营收80-120亿美元（~30-40%利润率），作为主要受益者。他们设计数字底层架构（SerDes，互连），从 SK Hynix 购买 HBM4 内存，支付 TSMC 的 2nm 晶圆和 CoWoS 封装费用，并将成品模块卖给微软。 当 Maia 在2026年底至2027年初开始量产时，鉴于其带来的巨大营收，Marvell 可能会迎来大幅重估。 2. 光网络架构：约30亿至40亿美元 主要受益者：Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI)，Coherent ($COHR)，Innolight Maia 集群需要1:1或更高的光收发器与GPU比例。对于1.6T速度（Maia 300所需），每个节点的光学内容估计超过3,000美元（每个加速器约6个800G/1.6T模块）。 这里 AAOI 大获全胜：与市值700亿美元的 $MRVL 不同，$AAOI 是一家25亿美元的公司。即使只获得这块30亿美元蛋糕的20-30%（6-9亿美元），也将使其当前年化经常性收入(ARR)翻三倍，但具体份额取决于其德州磷化铟(InP)工厂的扩产情况（可能更多或更少）。 因此，Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) 和 Marvell 的光学 DSP 业务是隐形赢家，受益于连接这些巨型芯片所需的1.6T升级周期。 像 $TSM 这样的公司会增加30-40亿美元营收，但相对于其1000多亿美元的营收来说，这只是中等体量。（仅说明 TSM 体量之大） 硅基 BOM 拆解： 1. 计算逻辑 (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (设计), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. 内存 (估计 HBM4? (6-8层堆叠), 估计值) SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O 与缓存 Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. 先进封装 - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. 散热方案 - 微流道冷板 / TIM ($200-400) 6. 杂项 (大电流电感, 电容) ($150-$200) 硅基 BOM 总计：$7,860 - $10,550 这非常粗略，未涉及无源器件/基板/盖板 (Ibiden, Unimicron)，测试与组装 (Advantest, Teradyne) 等。 现在如果我们深入看光学 BOM 以及 $MSFT 在空心光纤和 OCS 方面的布局： DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh 引擎 (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) 激光源 (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) 收发器组装: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) 光纤布线: 空心光纤 / MPO ($MSFT) ($200 - $300) 光学 BOM 总计~$2,300 - $3,600~占系统总成本的25% 我们已经确立 $LITE 和 Innolight 是光子学的两大主要玩家（在 $NVDA 和所有超大规模云厂商 ASIC 中） 然而，$AAOI 的市值仅为 $MRVL 和 $LITE 的一小部分，作为小盘股，Maia 的机会对其股票更具变革性。 另需注意，富邦研究(Fubon Research)估计 Maia300 芯片将于2026年底开始生产，约30万至40万颗，2027年增至120万至150万颗，但我们仅采用瑞银的~100万颗数据。（因此实际爬坡可能更多） 但向1.6T的转变以及对空心光纤/OCS网络高功率激光器的特定需求是一个巨大的顺风。如果 AAOI 获得 Maia 光学 BOM 的一部分，他们到2027年仅从一个客户那里就能使 ARR 翻三倍或四倍（不包括 $AMZN）。 风险：主要风险是资格认证失败。如果他们的激光器未能通过微软严格的可靠性测试，他们可能会被 $LITE 一夜之间取代。 然而，Maia 300 的量产标志着超大规模云厂商 ASIC 交易的开始，关键供应商已就位。 从2026-2027年底这一特定 ASIC 中受益最大的公司？ 看起来是 $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM 和 SK Hynix。 警告：这是基于公开材料+深度研究+映射的推测性研究+建模。没有公开的新闻证实这些信息，不要将其视为事实。
英文原文
Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain. On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027. An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp. Here's where it goes: 1. $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing (SerDes, interconnects), buy the HBM4 memory from SK Hynix, pay TSMC for the 2nm wafers and CoWoS packaging, and sell the finished module to Microsoft. We'll likely see a large re-rating in Marvell when it comes time for Maia ramp late 2026, early 2027, especially given how much revenue this brings in. 2. The Optical Fabric: ~$3 Billion to $4 Billion Primary Beneficiaries: Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ), Coherent ( $COHR ), Innolight Maia clusters require a 1:1 or higher ratio of transceivers to GPUs. For 1.6T speeds (required for Maia 300), the optical content per node is estimated at $3,000+ (approx. 6x 800G/1.6T modules per accelerator). Here AAOI Wins Big: Unlike $MRVL (which is $70B), $AAOI is a $2.5B company. Capturing even 20-30% of this $3B pie ($600M-$900M) would triple + their current ARR, but the amount captured is dependent on their InP Texas Fab scaling (could be a lot more or less). So Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Marvell's optical DSP business are the silent winners, riding the 1.6T upgrade cycle required to interconnect these massive chips. Companies like $TSM gain another $3-4B revenue, but that's medium volume compared to their $100B+ revenue. (just speaking to how much of a giant TSM is) For the silicon BOM breakdown: 1. Compute Logic (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A Marvell (Design), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500) 2. Memory (est. HBM4? (6-8 stacks), estimate). SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500) 3. I/O & Cache Die - TSMC N5/N4 Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600) 4. Advanced Packaging - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300) 5. Thermal Solution - Microfluidic Cold Plate / TIM ($200-400) 6. Misc (High-Current Inductors, Caps) ($150-$200) Total Silicon BOM: $7,860 - $10,550 This is really high level doesn't go into Passive/Substrate/Lid (Ibiden, Unimicron), Test & Assembly (Advantest, Teradyne), etc. Now if we look deeper at optical BOM and what $MSFT is doing with hollow core fiber and OCS: DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200) SiPh Engine (CPO): Marvell / Intel ($600 - $900) Laser Source (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600) Transceiver Assembly: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600) Fiber Cabling: Hollow Core Fiber / MPO ( $MSFT) ($200 - $300) Total Optical BOM~$2,300 - $3,600~25% of Total System Cost We've established $LITE and Innolight as the two major players in photonics already (within $NVDA and every single hyperscaler ASIC) However, $AAOI MC is a fraction of $MRVL and $LITE as a microcap, making the Maia opportunity far more transformative for its stock. Someting also to note is Fubon Research est Maia300 chip is set to start prod in late 2026 with about 300,000 to 400,000 units, increasing to 1.2 to 1.5 million units in 2027, but we're just going with the ~1M figure from UBS. (so might ramp up more) But the shift to 1.6T and the specific requirement for high-power lasers for hollow-core/OCS networks is a big tailwind. If AAOI captures a portion Maia optical BOM, they triple or quadruple their ARR from one client alone by 2027 (not including $AMZN). Risk: The primary risk is qualification failure. If their lasers fail Microsoft’s rigorous reliability testing, they could be replaced by $LITE overnight. However, Maia 300 ramp signals the start of the hyperscaler ASIC trade and key suppliers are there. The companies that benefit the most from this specific ASIC late 2026-2027? Looks like $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM, and SK Hynix. Warning: This is speculative research + modeling given public materials + deep research + mapping. There is no public breakdown and news of this information, do not treat it as a fact.
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澄清MRVL与LITE为两只不同股票，将另写MRVL论点。
@bricked_trades $MRVL 是一个很好的做多标的，我会单独写一篇关于他们在 Maia 300 中角色的投资论点(Thesis)。 但这篇论点其实是关于 $LITE 的……所以是两只不同的股票。
英文原文
@bricked_trades $MRVL is a great long, I'll write a separate thesis on their role in maia 300. This thesis was about $LITE though... So two different stocks.
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作者认为AAOI和POET虽具十倍潜力但因执行风险未去风险化，不属于高确信度标的。
对我个人而言：当一家公司在根本上已“去风险化(de-risked)”并正从该点迈向规模化时，我才视其为“高确信度(high conviction)”标的。 例如，$NBIS 在与微软达成交易后。在光子学(photonics)领域，我个人更看好 $AAOI 而非 $POET。但它们都尚未“去风险化”。 正如你提到的，Poet 受益于 Celestial（已被 $MRVL 收购）。Marvell 基本上通过 Celestial 向超大规模云厂商(hyperscalers)出售 Poet 的中介层(interposer)，用于连接 TPU/Trainium。 但这中间隔着多层环节。 $AAOI 已经拥有与超大规模云厂商的直接合同，例如与 $AMZN 合作 Trainium，与 $MSFT 合作 Maia。此外还有类似 $ALAB 与亚马逊那样的股权协议。 然而，它们实现了完全垂直整合且工厂建在德克萨斯州。如果能让整个供应链在美国实现规模化并完美执行，它们有巨大的10倍增长潜力。 但由于相比 $COHR 规模较小，$AAOI 存在巨大的执行风险，因此不属于高确信度标的。$POET 同理，目前尚无让我完全确信的去风险化因素。 不过，Poet 和 AAOI 都是具备10倍潜力的光子学标的，这也是我持仓部分 $AAOI 的原因，但它们都不属于高确信度投资。
英文原文
For me personally: A stock is "high conviction" when they are fundamentally de-risked and are going from that point to scale. For example, $NBIS post-MSFT deal. I like $AAOI much better than $POET in the photonics space personally. But neither of them are "de-risked yet". So Poet as you mentioned, benefits from Celestial, which got acquired $MRVL. Marvell basically sells Poet's interposer via Celestial to hyperscalers for connecting tpus/trainium. But this is via multiple hops away. $AAOI already had direct hyperscaler contracts like $AMZN for Trainium + $MSFT for Maia. And equity agreements like what $ALAB has for Amazon. However, they're fully vertically integrated + built in Texas. They have a pretty big potential to 10X if they can get the whole supply chain to scale in America + perfect execution. But because they're at lower scale compared to $COHR, $AAOI has huge execution risk + it's not high-conviction. Same with $POET, there's no de-risking factor yet that would make me fully convinced. However, Poet and AAOI are both photonics plays that can 10x, which is why I have some $AAOI in my portfolio, but neither are high conviction.
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OpenAI 高估值融资改善 AI 数据中心与供应链风险偏好
最新消息：OpenAI 在完成 5000 亿美元估值、100 亿美元以上的 Amazon 轮融资后，正在以 7500 亿美元估值继续融资。 $CRWV：+15.85% $NBIS：+10.28% 有了这笔交易，像 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 这样的公司，在为 OpenAI 的资本开支需求建设容量时，对手方风险在结构上降低了，因为 OpenAI 的资产负债表更强了。 像 Nebius 这种算法上和行业龙头绑定的公司，也因此上涨。 从 Rocket Lab 到 Bitcoin，高 beta 资产普遍上涨。 最近因为日元套息交易解除，加上今天大量未平仓合约到期，市场出现了极端波动。 不过，AI 交易的基本面（尤其是 Micron 神级财报显示了极强内存需求）以及 Neocloud 的基本面，仍然比以往更好。
英文原文
Latest news: OpenAI is raising funds at a $750B valuation after their $10B+ Amazon round at $500B. $CRWV: +15.85% $NBIS: +10.28% With this deal, companies like Coreweave and Oracle structurally have less counterparty risk with OpenAI's stronger balance sheet to fund capex requirements. Companies like Nebius that are algorithmically tied to the sector leaders are up as a result. High-Beta Assets from Rocketlab to Bitcoin are up across the board. There was extreme volatility recently with the Yen carry trade unwinding + large open interest expiring today. However, the fundamentals of the AI trade (especially with Micron's godlike ER showing extreme memory demand), and Neoclouds remain better than ever.
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Amazon 投资 OpenAI 对 AI 数据中心和 ASIC 供应链的连锁影响
最新：Amazon 的 100 亿美元 OpenAI 融资，以及 AI 供应链的涟漪效应。 $AMZN 将以 5000 亿美元以上估值向 OpenAI 投资 100 亿美元以上。 为什么这是 AI 股票的重大结构性变化： 1. AI 数据中心交易去风险：（$ORCL、$CRWV、$APLD、$CORZ） 结合前面提到的 SPEED 法案，影响 Neocloud 的主要问题是： 1. 数据中心延迟和递延收入 2. 不可持续的 CapEx -> 没有 FCF 3. OpenAI 传染/积压订单风险 SPEED 法案直接处理了第 1 和第 2 点，但没有处理 OpenAI 相关的第 3 点。 影响 Oracle、CoreWeave 等最大 Neocloud/数据中心提供商的主要担忧，是它们为 OpenAI 这个对手方投入了巨额 capex，而 OpenAI 本身没有足够资金承诺这些资本开支。 但现在，随着 Amazon 新融资，第 3 点开始被解决。 - 新增 100 亿美元资金，加上 Amazon 的资产负债表支持 ChatGPT 的创造者，OpenAI 对 Oracle 和 CoreWeave 的早期承诺开始获得兜底。 - 下游影响：这直接降低了 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 的风险，因为它们在为 OpenAI 建设容量。再往下两层，依赖 CoreWeave 作为租户的 $APLD 或 $CORZ 也会被去风险。 由于 CoreWeave 和 Oracle 被视为“行业龙头”，这会立刻改变整个 Neocloud 板块的情绪，包括 $NBIS、$IREN、$CIFR、$WULF 等。 2. Hyperscaler AI capex 浪潮（$AMZN、$MRVL、Alchip）： 我们之前看到，$AVGO ASIC backlog 之后，市场开始担心 hyperscaler 支出减弱，很多相关玩家因此大跌。 但这笔交易的关键条件之一，是 OpenAI 采用 Amazon 自研 Trainium ASIC。这代表非 Nvidia 集群会激进扩张。 - 设计与 IP：直接利好 Marvell（$MRVL）和 Alchip 等 ASIC 设计伙伴。 - 定制硅集群需要大量光互连和 HBM。这会为光子（$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR）和内存（$MU、SK 海力士）创造新的 capex 超级周期。 - 代工厂，比如 $TSM。 以及更多参与 hyperscaler ASIC 建设的相关公司。 唯一输家？Nvidia（$NVDA）。 Amazon 正在成功用它庞大的资产负债表，迫使领先 LLM 摆脱对 H100/Blackwell 的依赖，同时推动整条 AI 供应链。 核心结论是，AI 交易由世界上最富有的公司资助，比如 $AMZN；OpenAI 也正在证明，它可以通过出让股权来扩大资产负债表，以满足需求。 做多 AI 板块。
英文原文
Just In: Amazon's $10B OpenAI Funding and The AI Supply Chain Ripple Effect. $AMZN is set to invest $10B+ in OpenAI at a $500B+ valuation Why this is a MASSIVE structural shift for AI stocks: 1. De-Risking the AI DC trade: ( $ORCL, $CRWV, $APLD, $CORZ ) With the SPEED Bill mentioned earlier, the main issues affecting Neoclouds were: 1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue 2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF 3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog. the Speed bill directly addresses #1 and #2. But not #3 with OpenAI. The main fears affecting the biggest Neocloud/Datanceter providers like Oracle, Coreweave was their immense capex spend for a counterparty (OpenAI) that doesn't have the funding to commit to it's capex spend. But now, #3 is starting to be addressed with the new Amazon funding. - With a fresh $10 Billion and Amazon’s balance sheet backing the creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI's early commitments to Oracle and CoreWeave are now starting to be backstopped. - Downstream Impact: This directly derisks companies like $CRWV and $ORCL, who are building capacity for OpenAI. And by two hops, companies like $APLD or $CORZ that rely on Coreweave as a tenant. As Coreweave and Oracle are seen as the "sector leaders" this immediately changes sentiment across the whole Neocloud sector from $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and others as well. 2. The HyperScaler AI capex wave ( $AMZN, $MRVL, Alchip): We've seen fears after $AVGO ASIC backlog about hyperscaler spending waning. And many related players tanked on the news. However, a key condition of this deal is OpenAI’s adoption of Amazon’s proprietary Trainium ASICs. This signals an aggressive scaling of non-Nvidia clusters. - Design & IP: Direct benefit to ASIC design partners like Marvell ( $MRVL ) and Alchip. - Custom silicon clusters require massive optical interconnects and HBM. This creates a new capex supercycle for photonics ( $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR ) and memory ( $MU, SK Hynix). - Foundries such as $TSM. and many more related companies involved in the buildout of hyperscaler ASICs. The only loser? Nvidia ( $NVDA ). Amazon is successfully using its massive balance sheet to force the leading LLM to diversify away from H100/Blackwell dependence and boosting the whole AI supply chain alongside it. The main takeaway is that the AI trade is funded by the richest companies in the world, such as $AMZN, and OpenAI is showing it can scale up its balance sheet to meet requirements by trading off equity. Go long on the AI sector.
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作者认为因拥有直接大客户及更低估值，$AAOI 优于 $POET。
我研究过 $POET，但相比 $AAOI 我更喜欢后者，因为 AAOI 已经拥有 $MSFT 和 $AMZN 等直接超大规模客户(hyperscaler customers)。$POET 旗下的 Celestial 已被 $MRVL 收购，Celestial 使用 Poet 的中介层(interposer)来连接 TPU/Trainium，而 Marvell 将其出售给超大规模客户。但这并不等同于通过直接来自 $AMZN 和 $MSFT 的大批量订单以及类似 Amazon 与 $ALAB 的股权投资协议来实现的“几步之遥”的去风险(de-risking)。Amazon 在 $AAOI 中拥有类似 $ALAB 的财务激励，但 Astera 已经是家市值 300 亿美元的公司，而 AAOI 的市值仅为 25 亿美元。
英文原文
I've looked into $POET but didn't like it as much compared to $AAOI given AAOI already has direct hyperscaler customers with $MSFT and $AMZN. $POET had Celestial that got acquired $MRVL, where Celestial used poet’s interposer to connect tpus/trainium, and Marvell sells that to hyperscalers. But it's not quite the same de-risking few hops away as direct massive volume orders from $AMZN and $MSFT and equity agreements that Amazon has like they did with $ALAB. Amazon has a financial incentive in $AAOI like $ALAB, but Astera is already a $30B company, while AAOI is a $2.5B MC.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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分享激进期权卖出策略，强调底部择时与波动率管理，警示高风险。
我写了一个期权卖出波段交易策略，上周用100万美元本金在5天内实现了2万美元利润，年化收益率(Y/Y)超过183%。 我总是提前给出确切头寸，而不是事后诸葛亮。 $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +$3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 对于100万美元的组合，这相当于每周约2%的被动复利，年化回报183%。 所有行权价均归零作废，权利金被全额收取。 即使股票下跌，如$HIMS（今日跌5.32%，本周跌6.5%），你仍有100%的利润。 这是波段交易者能够极好地抄底时采用的策略。 如果本周我再写看跌期权(Put)，我会动态调整行权价，并跳过一些之前写过的股票，比如因价格上涨而跳过的$RKLB。 再次强调，这适用于极其高级的交易者，这不是典型的“写看跌期权赚钱”策略，因为你需要主动进行底部择时（就像我今天在Reddit上发帖尝试寻找$200的局部底部）。不是在随机时间写期权。 如果你不知道如何很好地抄底，写看跌期权会放大亏损。 无论如何，这是许多高级交易者如何通过写期权复利净资产的一个例子。 （引用内容）： 激进地基于100万美元写期权将是： 5天内+$20.24K，每周2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 使用100万美元现金，盈透证券(IBKR)组合保证金示例： 85股 $NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金占用) 55股 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10 PUT (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85 PUT (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5 PUT (+$1.22K) ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) 100万美元现金，331万美元保证金。如果我把现金留到下周，我会这样做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 此外，如果你在财报周这样做，回报率可能会高于183%哈哈，这可能是任何事件中利润最高的。但再次强调，超级危险，这是我个人会做的，也许只是当作乐趣阅读并在模拟账户中尝试，不要实盘。 另外，我也是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，鉴于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值较低，你可以使用更多杠杆）。 你必须先择时底部，然后写看跌期权。例如，AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC大约在$107k附近见底，RKLB短期内不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 所以希望这对活跃的波段交易者和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试这个。 _ 所以只是随机想法 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上写看跌期权。不要受OKLO或QBTS高权利金的诱惑，因为突然下跌后它们可能几年都无法恢复。你需要已经知道什么是伟大的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机 penny stocks 或投机性东西上写期权。只写你愿意买入并持有的东西，因为写看跌期权基本上意味着你最终会在那些价位买入它。 2. 在真正的好股票上高隐含波动率(IV)时重复操作，例如，如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB IV是90%或NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会下降到60%或类似水平。 3. 不要对极高贝塔值的股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5倍保证金对于像NBIS或RKLB这样的股票更安全。高贝塔值使用2-3倍保证金是危险的。 这就是为什么~1.5倍保证金对于NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合适的，以防除一只外其他全部下跌。 然后对于低贝塔值股票如META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使下跌那么多也不会对组合造成太大影响。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为什么变化。如果你只是重复这样做，但在财报周卖出东西，而像TTD这样的股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。再次强调，这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果你真的想玩得安全，选择一个更低的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选择了那个行权价。 6. 还需要知道任何重大宏观事件+风险水平。所以凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，一些催化剂，比如AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，所以它可能会表现更好并价格上涨，所以可能更好在之后写期权。所以如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日才开始卖看跌期权，而不是本周。 _ 一般来说粗略的经验法则 IV - <30%，不太值得，不像Blackrock、SPY那样波动不大，除非有PPI或其他事件 IV - 30-45%，通常是像MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN这样的科技股。在你用于高贝塔值的1.5倍之上额外使用保证金来做这些是很好的。 45%-65%，通常是30-60%年化增长类型的公司，如MRVL、Coin等。有时它们被严重错误定价，比如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值得，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%，通常是你更有趣的散户股票，如RKLB、NBIS，这是非常好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能会在下跌时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+增加几个百分点，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+，哈哈危险区（如果你卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报这样的东西。可能有原因。如果你知道为什么，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在当时以200% IV卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上说我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等东西在1-2天内IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方实际上是好事。如果是一周后，嗯，可能有什么东西会极度波动。 _ 如果我要分解个别股票 例如AMZN，作为波段交易者，我会在$210水平附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔值（波动方式）相对较低，所以你可以基于它不会触及来调整你的保证金。 例如高贝塔值，85股 NBIS $96 PUT (+$5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方来说太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不真的期望它跌破$100。IBKR不这样做，所以我推荐像Robinhood这样的东西来看盈亏平衡点，所以这只股票需要下跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利的期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)头寸（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并且我认为我可以以更好的位置获得它，你可以在当前行权价写看跌期权，而不是低得多的价格）。 此外，除非有像特朗普关税这样绝对砸盘市场的黑天鹅事件，否则这几乎每周都有效。所以那周的看跌期权卖方被摧毁了，你可能只需要接受微小的损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这样做，因为我更多是突破交易者类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在1000万美元以上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示它是如何做的以及背后的思维过程。 随意问随机问题，我会帮助解释。
英文原文
I wrote a Option Sell Swing Trade strategy that would realized $20k profit in 5 days with $1M last week for 183%+ Y/Y. I always give exact positions ahead of time, not retroactively. $NBIS +$5.52K $HIMS +$1.427k $CIFR +$5.239K $RKLB +3.8K $TGT +$1.3k $AMZN +$1.22K $IBIT +$947.86 $META +$869 With a $1M portfolio on it would be ~2% week passive compound for 183% Y/Y return. Every strike expired worthless and the premium would be collected. Even when stocks declined such as $HIMS (down 5.32% today), and 6.5% this week, you would still have 100% profit. This is a strategy people do when you're able to bottom time extremely well as a swing trader. If I were to write puts again for this week, I would dynamically change the strikes, and skip out on some stocks that I wrote earlier like $RKLB due to an increase in price. Again this works for extremely advanced traders, this is not your typical "write put, make money" type strategy since you're actively bottom timing (like how I posted with Reddit today, trying to time $200 local bottom). Not just writing options at random times. If you don't know how to bottom time well, writing puts will magnify loss. Regardless, this is an example of how a lot of advanced traders write options to compound net worth.
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博主分享6只个股的短期交易策略，强调经验直觉胜过耐心口号。
最近 X 上流传着很多鼓舞人心的交易者心态，比如： “会有回报的。要有耐心。”全是废话。 交易者会考虑板块动量、催化剂、估值、回调、宏观、隐含波动率(IV)、期权流向等。 以下是我对各种股票短期交易的心态： 1. $NBIS - $111.91，尽管当天上涨了 1.53%，但由于 Meta 给予其 140 亿美元合同，CRWV 上涨了 12%。 这通常对所有新云厂商都是利好。它曾飙升至 $117（我可能仍会持有），但随后回落至 $111，可能是由于未平仓合约过多，但我们可能会继续看到上涨行情。因此我会利用这段时间进行定投(DCA)并买入看涨期权/股票，即使它已经上涨了 1.53%。 这不是“真正的下跌”，更像是上涨过程中的回调。 2. $HIMS - $56.4 下跌 4.67%，通常人们只是盲目抄底，但这实际上是由重大因素引起的，即特朗普推出了面向消费者的政府药品网站。随着股价升至 $60，空头比率降至 33%。 这次下跌可能会被用于空头回补。我在 $46 支撑位买入，但在反弹后不久卖出，因为我感觉它还会进一步下跌。但我个人更喜欢底部入场点，所以可能更接近 $50。 我记得 AMZN 推出竞争对手时，HIMS 暴跌 20% 然后再次上涨，我预计特朗普的计划中期也会如此，但近期它是一个逆风因素。 3. $RDDT - $228，下跌 5.45%，没有新闻。可能只是估值担忧。我们看到类似的增长股如 ALAB、CRED 有随机的 20% 回调。许多软件/社交股票如 SNAP 因非重大新闻下跌 8.1%。修正很健康，股票不会一直上涨，我个人更倾向于等待再次回到 $100+，而不是 $200+，但鉴于 RDDT 在随机日子有更大的 5-8% 回调，根据历史经验，6-7% 的下跌是日内的好买点，你可能会看到它恢复，但我们可能会看到许多增长股在 11/12 月的大涨前经历更大的修正，所以可能不是真正的底部。 我现在不看图表 RSI，只是基于过去一两年每天观察股票 + IV 的经验感觉来做。 4. AMZN - 没有重大宏观新闻，可能是 10 月 1 日的政府停摆可能会引起指数恐慌，但这没什么大不了的。它下跌了 1.35%，所以我会买入，因为这是摊低成本的好时机。 5. Klarna - $36，下跌 5.3%。有时你只是凭直觉行事。低于 IPO 价格，没有重大新闻。大多数 IPO 都下跌了，比如 Gemini 等。如果你想建立长期头寸，我会在这个水平买入。 6. TSM - $277，我有罪地进行了 $273-$279 之间的波段交易，所以我每次跌至 $273 就买入，在 $277-$279 卖出以获取 2% 的纯股票利润。到目前为止，我用股票做了大约 2 次。如果跌破 $273，我就定投，如果进一步下跌就切换到看涨期权。 没有绝对的对错方式，每个人都有自己的方法。（另外抱歉 CRM，糟糕的财报搞错了那个，如果进一步下跌我可能会摊平成本）。 但一般来说，这只是我浏览每只股票清单时的想法。再次强调，每个人想法不同，我只是想写下我的思考过程，如果对他有帮助的话。
英文原文
Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like: "It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS. Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc. Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks: 1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract. So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53% Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally. 2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60. This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50. I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind. 3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom. I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two. 4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average. 5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level. 6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls. There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further). But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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分享激进卖出高IV看跌期权的策略、保证金管理及风险警示。
激进地卖出期权（Writing Options）$100万组合如下： 5天收益+$20.24K，周回报2.024%，年化回报183.48%。 以$100万现金、IBKR组合保证金为例： 85股 $NBIS $96看跌期权(+$5.52K权利金) ($809K保证金) 55股 $HIMS $49.5看跌期权 (+$1.427K) ($270k) 250股 $CIFR $10看跌期权 (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80股 RKLB $42看跌期权 (+3.8K) ($332K) 35股 TGT $85看跌期权 (+$1.3k) ($296k) 35股 AMZN $207.5看跌期权 (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50股 IBIT $59看跌期权 (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5股 META $712.5看跌期权 (+$869) ($335K) $100万现金，331万保证金。如果下周持有现金，我会这么做。 这是对每只股票进行底部择时(Bottom Timing)，并基于基本面、宏观时机、事件和波动率预测本周不会触及的行权价。 如果在财报周做，回报可能高于183%，这通常是最有利可图的事件。但再次强调，超级危险，这只是我个人会做的，仅供娱乐阅读或在模拟账户尝试，不要实盘。 此外，我是凭记忆估算保证金维持要求（例如，由于META、TGT、AMZN等贝塔值低，你可以加更多杠杆）。 你必须择时底部然后卖出看跌期权。例如：AMZN不太可能跌破$210，BTC在$107k左右见底，RKLB短期不会低于$43，NBIS有$100支撑，TGT见底，META不太可能一周跌5%+等。 希望这对活跃的波段交易者(Swing Traders)和高级交易者有点启发，如果你是只交易指数的新手，不要尝试。 _ 一些随机想法： 1. 不要在你不愿意在该价位买入的股票上卖出看跌期权。不要因OKLO或QBTS的高权利金而诱惑，因为它们可能在突然下跌后多年无法恢复。你需要先知道什么是优质的多头标的。 ^^^^重要*** ^^^^，请不要在随机仙股或投机标的上卖出期权。只卖你愿意买入并持有的标的，因为卖出看跌期权意味着你最终会在该价位买入。 2. 在高隐含波动率(Implied Volatility, IV)的真正好股票上重复操作，例如如果HOOD IV达到90%或RKLB/NBIS IV是90%，因为一旦行情停滞，IV最终会降至60%左右。 3. 不要对极高贝塔股票过度使用保证金，通常1.3-1.5x保证金对NBIS或RKLB这类股票更安全。高贝塔股2-3x杠杆很危险。 这就是为什么~1.5x保证金对NBIS、CIFR、HIMS、RKLB等是合理的（约1664倍杠杆效应），以防除一只外其他都跌。 然后对META、IBIT、TGT、AMZN等低贝塔股票，你可以放心使用保证金，因为即使大跌也不会严重损害投资组合。 4. 学习隐含波动率并知道它为何变化。如果你只是重复操作但在财报周卖出，而像TTD这样股票暴跌40%，你就麻烦了。这仅适用于非财报周。 5. 如果想更安全，选择低一档的行权价。比如$CIFR $7.5可能不会触及，但$10行权价有小概率触及。但我本来就想在$10买入+5.2K权利金，所以我选了那个行权价。 6. 还需要了解重大宏观事件+风险水平。凭记忆，可能有关于美国政府停摆的负面消息，美国衰退几率增加，Polymarket定价三次降息概率从65%降至56%等。 另一方面，像AMZN在8-9日有Prime Day，价格可能上涨，所以可能更好在之后卖出期权。如果风险太大，我可能会等到10月3日再开始卖出看跌期权。 _ 一般粗略经验法则： IV <30%：不太值得，像Blackrock、SPY除非有PPI等事件否则波动不大。 IV 30-45%：通常是MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN等科技股。除了用于高贝塔股的1.5x外，用额外保证金做这些很好。 45%-65%：通常是MRVL、Coin等30-60%年增长率的公司。有时它们定价错误，如COIN/HOOD的IV有时不值，鉴于它们的波动幅度。 65%-100%：通常是RKLB、NBIS等更有趣的散户股，这是很好的甜蜜点，因为它们可能在回调时反弹，如果你知道如何择时底部+加点缓冲，很可能获得100%+的权利金收益。 100%+：哈哈危险区（如果卖出几天到期的期权）。像OPEN、OKLO、财报。可能有原因。如果你知道原因，比如NBIS因MSFT交易上涨40%，我会在200% IV时卖出$85看跌期权，因为从根本上我会在那个价位买入。 如果NBIS等股票在1-2天到期时IV升至100%+，这对期权卖方其实是好事。如果是一周到期，嗯，可能有什么极度波动的事。 _ 如果我要分解个别案例： 以AMZN为例，作为波段交易者，我会在$210附近买入看涨期权，不太可能跌破$207.5（所以盈亏平衡点是$207.15，即-5.96%），所以你要确保选择一个它永远不会触及的水平。你也知道IV+贝塔（波动方式）相对较低，所以可以根据它不会触及来调整保证金。 对于高贝塔股，例如85股 NBIS $96看跌期权，(+5.52K权利金) ($809K) IV是92%，这对期权卖方太棒了。你获得更多权利金，而且你不认为它会跌破$100。IBKR不提供此功能，所以我推荐Robinhood查看盈亏平衡点，这只股票需要跌11.3%才能盈亏平衡。 _ 再次强调，我只推荐给风险承受能力较高的活跃波段交易者，否则坚持持有超过一年的股票。 这也是为了激进复利期权卖出， 而不是战略性地用于定投(DCA)建仓（例如，如果我想在$120买入AMZN，并认为能以更好价格获得，你可以卖出当前行权价的看跌期权，而不是低得多的行权价）。 此外，这几乎每周都有效，**除非**发生像特朗普关税那样彻底击垮市场的黑天鹅事件。那周的看跌期权卖方会被摧毁，你可能需要接受微小损失并重新开始。 当我有闲置现金时我会这么做，因为我更偏向突破交易者(Breakout Trader)类型。 这只是我个人的交易风格和思维流程，再次强调非常危险，即使你有一些经验。这是超级高级的，我很多前量化交易员+买方同事都有现金，并在$1000万+上做这种期权卖出风格，我只是展示怎么做以及背后的思维过程。 欢迎随意提问，我会帮忙解释。
英文原文
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
英文原文
I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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分享9月精选15只高潜力股票及理想入场点。
我9月份精选的15只由催化剂驱动的股票，按截至2025财年的潜力排序，附解释及理想入场点： 1. $NBIS - 微软(MSFT)合同超170亿美元，稀释基本完成 < $100（现价）。相比 $IREN、$WULF 或 $BTBT 我更看好这只。 2. $HIMS - 42%的做空比例。来自欧盟的新增客户超120万。若有意外消息可能涨至$100 < $45 3. $LTC - ETF即将推出 + LTC储备 < $120（现价） 4. $RKLB - 中子号火箭将于2026年初发射 < $42 5. $TSM (看涨期权) - 市值持续增长至1.8万亿+，资本支出惊人。< $265（现价） 6. $ETOR - 随着 $HOOD、$IBKR 等金融科技股起飞，该股被低估。在当前价位下，我首选它而非 $DLO 或 $DAVE < $48（现价） 7. $LULU - 受假日消费提振，短期反弹至年底，超卖状态 < $165（现价） 7. $MRVL - 健康的45-55%同比增长，财报后遭不公平惩罚 < $70（现价） 8. $SG - 值得投资以博取反弹。去年股价$45。 < $9（现价） 9. $TSSI - 服务器机架（如 $SMCI、$DELL）正在追赶AI热潮的其余部分。 < $13.5 10. $ASTS - 像 $OPEN 一样的“邪教”级股票 < $38.5 11. $CRDO - 追赶 $ALAB 至380亿美元市值 < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk及保守派人士有望推动平台参与度至年底。 < $7.25 13. $AMZN (看涨期权) - AWS... 跟随 $ORCL 及其他数据中心财报表现 < $215 14. $SMCI - 2026年远期营收330亿美元。市值240亿美元哈哈。只要一份好财报就能起飞。$45（现价） 15. $IBIT (1年期LEAPS) - 鉴于美元超发，纯比特币敞口。不要 $MSTR 或 $BMNR，只要纯资产ETF < $112.5k 我还有什么遗漏的吗？
英文原文
My top 15 catalyst driven stocks from September sorted by potential to FY 2025, explanation, and ideal entry points: 1. $NBIS - 17B+ MSFT contract, dilution mostly finished < $100 (now). I like this over $IREN, $WULF, or $BTBT 2. $HIMS - 42% Short interest. 1.2M+ customers coming in from EU. Could up to $100 on surprise news < $45 3. $LTC - ETF launch soon + LTC reserves < $120 (now) 4. $RKLB - Neutron Launch early 2026 < $42 5. $TSM (calls)- Keep growing to 1.8T+ MC, capex spend insane.< $265 (now) 6. $ETOR - Undervalued with fintechl ike $HOOD $IBKR taking off. I'd prefer this over $DLO or $DAVE at current prices < $48 (now) 7. $LULU - Short term bounce to year end from holiday consumer spending, oversold < $165 (now) 7. $MRVL - Healthy 45-55% Y/Y, unfairly punished after earnings < $70 (now) 8. $SG - Worth the investment for bounceback. $45 last year. < $9 (now) 9. $TSSI - Server racks like $SMCI, $DELL catching up to rest of AI boom. < $13.5 10. $ASTS - Cult like stock like $OPEN < $38.5 11. $CRDO - Catchup to $ALAB at $38B MC < $125 12. $RUM - Charlie Kirk + conservatives likely to drive engagement to platform EOY. < $7.25 13. $AMZN (calls)- AWS... Follow $ORCL and other datacenter earnings < $215 14. $SMCI - 33B forward revenue 2026. 24B market cap lol. One good earnings and it pops off. $45 (now) 15. $IBIT (1Y leaps) - Pure BTC given USD printing. No $MSTR or $BMNR, just pure asset ETF < $112.5k Anything else I'm missing?
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降息预期推动成长股反弹，机构提前布局，年底指数或涨5-8%。
分析一下这意味着什么：短期内，这对成长股(growth stocks)非常有利，因为成长股对利率(rates)高度敏感。 像 $HOOD、$RKLB、$NBIS、$IREN、$ALAB、$CREDO 这样的许多股票将创历史新高，而 $HIMS、$CRWV、$SMCI、$MRVL、$TSSI 等股票也将恢复至历史高点(ATH)。 机构今年提前押注了“九月疲软”(September weakness)（大约在比特币达到 12.4 万美元时），因此随着降息预期叠加，股票在 9 月初再次上涨。 由于今年早些时候因关税(tariffs)和高通胀(high inflation)导致市场大幅崩盘，标普 500 指数 ETF (SPY) 的表现并未超越往年，因此我们可以看到指数在年底前再上涨 5%-8%。 17 日的降息几乎板上钉钉，所以机构正在提前布局(front-running)。散户可能认为降息当日股票会上涨，但实际消息公布后可能会导致抛售(selloff)。
英文原文
Just an analysis on what this means: short term, it's great for growth stocks = since growth stocks have high sensitivity to rates. You have a lot of stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $NBIS, $IREN, $ALAB, $CREDO that will hit all time highs or with $HIMS, $CRWV, $SMCI, $MRVL, $TSSI, and others, recovering to ATH. Insitutions frontran "September weakness" this year (Around the time BTC reached $124k), so stocks climbed again early SEPT due to rate cut on top of it. SPY hasn't really outperformed previous years either with the massive market crash earlier this year from tarrifs + high inflation so we can see index go up another 5%-8% by EOY. Rate cut is almost certain on the 17th, so institutions are front-running it. Retail probably thinks stocks go up on rate cut date, but the actual news might lead to a selloff.
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TSSI 跟涨，看好 MRVL、SMCI 等超跌股反弹。
在我发帖两小时后，$TSSI 又上涨了 5.2%。 对于那些像 $MRVL、$SMCI 这样大幅下跌的股票，玩“跟风游戏”几乎等于白捡钱。 鉴于 $TSSI 从 30 多美元跌下来，仍有巨大的上涨空间。https://t.co/Ud9FgrAbz8
英文原文
And $TSSI up 5.2% 2 hours later after I posted. It’s almost free money playing follow the leader on stocks that are down a ton like $MRVL, $SMCI. Lot of room to run given that it dropped from the $30s. https://t.co/Ud9FgrAbz8
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买入TSSI，看好小盘半导体随AI板块反弹。
鉴于半导体反弹已扩展至如 $SMCI 等服务器机架领域，我买入了 $40K 的 $TSSI。该股从 $31 跌至 $13.6，考虑到 $TSM、$CREDO、$NBIS、$AVGO、$MRVL、$ALAB 等其他半导体/AI 股票均已反弹，小盘股反弹的机会很大。https://t.co/jWkww0Avro
英文原文
Bought $40K of $TSSI now that the Semi rally extended back to server racks like $SMCI. Down from $31 -> $13.6, good chance for a rebound for small caps given the rest of semis/AI from $TSM, $CREDO, $NBIS, $AVGO, $MRVL, $ALAB and others have rallied. https://t.co/jWkww0Avro
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认为MRVL财报后大跌属过度反应，建议定投。
$MRVL 财报后下跌18%完全是过度反应。未来一个月是定投(Marvell)头寸的绝佳时机。
英文原文
$MRVL 18% drop after earnings was a complete overreaction. Perfect time to DCA into Marvell positions over the next month.
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建议9月降低风险偏好，转向盈利股或超跌股，规避高贝塔股。
一个小建议：9月前后降低风险偏好。像$UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL、$UPWK、$KSPI...这样的盈利股，或者年内下跌的$MRVL、$SG、$SNAP...可能会表现不错。如果你满仓高贝塔(high beta)股如$PLTR、$DUOL、$HOOD、$COIN、$CRCL、$NVDA、$MSTR、$TSLA...祝你好运。
英文原文
Just a tip: Lower risk appetite around September. Profitable stocks like $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, $UPWK, $KSPI... or stocks down YTD - $MRVL, $SG, $SNAP might do well. If you're full port calls on high beta like $PLTR, $DUOL, $HOOD, $COIN, $CRCL, $NVDA, $MSTR, $TSLA... Good luck.