$MRVL
观点汇总
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Serenity 对 MRVL 的核心论点始终围绕其作为 AI 基础设施关键供应商的价值被低估。早期他认为财报后大跌是过度反应，视其为定投良机。随着时间推移，他看重 MRVL 在超大规模客户（如 Amazon、Microsoft）ASIC 设计中的核心地位，特别是 Amazon 投资 OpenAI 并采用自研芯片后，MRVL 作为设计伙伴直接受益，且其 56% 的同比增长未被市场充分定价。他在 9 月建议低于 70 美元建仓，10 月将其列为“买入”，11 月虽未列入最高确信度名单但维持看好，12 月则强调其在 AI 供应链去风险化中的结构性优势。他未明确表态离场，而是将其作为长期 AI 交易的一部分，建议在市场回调时逢低买入或持有，认为其基本面强劲且受益于非 Nvidia 集群的扩张。
相关推文
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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AI全产业链普涨，博主质疑克莱默效应是否驱动整体行情。
铠侠(Kioxia)的存储板块收盘大涨17.18%。三星(Samsung)上涨6.15%。 来自 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 的光网络板块显示出复苏迹象，均上涨4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的“新云”(Neoclouds)板块盘前均上涨4%以上。 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL 均上涨4%以上。 “克莱默效应”(Cramer effect)对整个AI交易都有效吗？
英文原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
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欧洲投资者保守晒2%收益嘲笑科技股暴跌，但反映的是文化差异而非技术判断。
X平台的好处之一是能观察到文化差异：我看到一群欧洲旁观账户，躺着收银行存款利息，年内收益2%。现在冒出来说，当初投资$AAOI做光子学或三星做内存的都是赌徒。终于等到从$MRVL到$NBIS再到$INTC的所有AI相关股票在暴涨数倍后崩盘了，然后在那里庆祝。我认为主要是对技术变革缺乏理解，加上资本保值文化与成长型投资文化的碰撞。
英文原文
The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally. Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.
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AI板块无差别大跌，高贝塔股波动剧烈，反弹亦具高波动性。
@blkslymn 我不确定你是否注意到，目前整个AI板块正在无差别下跌。像三星这样市值1万亿美元的公司本月下跌了26%。$MRVL 下跌了31%。因此，高贝塔值（High Beta）的标的往往波动更大，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 下跌了50%。但随后的反弹往往也更具波动性，例如 $AEHR 在财报（ER）后单日上涨50%。
英文原文
@blkslymn I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.
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AI半导体板块集体大跌，属非基本面驱动的无差别抛售。
直说了： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 等全都一起崩盘…… 毕竟它们今天至今都跌了 -4% 到 -10%+。 这大概跟个股基本面没什么关系。 这是不分青红皂白的抛售（Indiscriminate selloffs）
英文原文
Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from
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博主因MRVL股价下跌联想到黄仁勋对其万亿市值的看好。
还有谁和我一样，脑子里也种下了这个烦人的念头？ 每当我看到 $MRVL 下跌，就会想起黄仁勋（Jensen）那句“下一家万亿美元市值公司”的评论。
英文原文
Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.
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彭博旧闻引发半导体板块大跌，多只个股跌幅超10%。
看到半导体市场因彭博社报道再次被框架化解读而崩盘，总是很有趣。瑞银分析师在关于 $META 的报告中称：“这并非新消息”。无论如何：$AEHR 下跌 -18.3%；$AAOI 下跌 -17.13%；$SIVEF 下跌 -15.4%；$SNDK 下跌 -14.8%；$TER 下跌 -13.8%；$GLW 下跌 -11.4%；$MRVL 下跌 -11.2%。
英文原文
Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% https://t.co/itWeWj5waE
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MRVL/AMAT/NBIS大跌，但相比领跌的小盘股表现相对较好。
@DogUrineCapital 看到 $MRVL 下跌 11%、$AMAT 下跌 11% 到 $NBIS 下跌 18% 真是令人作呕。好在另一方面，许多高贝塔/小盘股如 $AAOI 领跌。所以那些（大盘股）表现相对更好 https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr
英文原文
@DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18% On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop. So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr
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梳理OpenLight在Advantest之外的公开供应链生态伙伴。
OpenLight（私有公司）每次我看它似乎都在变得越来越大。 如果你对他们 Advantest 之外的公开生态系统感兴趣： $JBL（$SIVE 合作伙伴）用于扩展光子集成电路(PICs) $MRVL 和 $MXL 用于数字信号处理器(DSPs) $TSEM 用于晶圆代工。 $300394.SZ / TFC Optical（封装测试/子组件）
英文原文
OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly)
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博主调侃今日半导体板块大跌，列出多只个股跌幅。
好奇有没有人的投资组合在今天这个“有趣”的日子里是绿色的（盈利的）。 $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% SK海力士: -12.35% 三星: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
英文原文
Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
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回顾CXL内存池化概念股ALAB和MRVL过去4个月的大幅上涨。
做多CXL（Compute Express Link，计算快速链接）以实现内存池化的最佳时机是4个月前。 $ALAB 从 $117 涨至 $440，涨幅 276% $MRVL 从 $79 涨至 $309，涨幅 291% https://t.co/7XmXHyXgb1
英文原文
Best time to long CXL for memory pooling was 4 months ago. $ALAB up 276% from $117 -> $440 $MRVL up 291% from $79 -> $309 https://t.co/7XmXHyXgb1
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澄清误解，论证SIVE在CPO及可插拔光模块中的核心地位，强烈看多。
这是一个误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光器供应商，不仅仅局限于共封装光学(CPO)的规模扩展(scale up)。 可插拔(Pluggable)、规模扩展(scale out) CPO、规模扩展(scale up) CPO、近封装光学(NPO)等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 开启了“神模式”，开发了采用连续波(CW)激光器的 1.6T 光模块。 有效地绕过了电吸收调制激光器(EML)的瓶颈，甚至提高了能效。 根据捷普(Jabil)管理层的说法，他们建立了“相对显著的护城河”。 因此，对于下一代 1.6T 可插拔光模块，Sivers 似乎立即被采用。 市场也错过了这一细微差别：在捷普宣布后，其他可插拔厂商也主动联系，SIVE 现在正与他们合作（可能处于联合开发、资格认证阶段）。 像 Lumentum 这样垂直整合的光模块厂商并不多（想想中际旭创/新易盛，可能还有其他）。 所以这些是正在进行的开发，只是尚未公开披露，随时可能发布新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的 CPO 规模扩展(scale out)，如 $POET，$SIVE 是这些厂商的激光器供应商。 - 规模扩展(scale up) CPO 将在 2027 年下半年到来，来自 Ayar 和英伟达(Nvidia)的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，这是光模块厂商的主要放量阶段。 但在这里，$SIVE 看起来在供应链映射中碾压其他所有玩家。 因为他们很可能早在规模尚小时就与 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等合作并完成了设计导入。 除此之外还有： 对于像 $GFS 这样的晶圆代工厂，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 甚至不包括像 O-Net 这样与 $SIVE 合作构建 ELS 的大公司，可能用于亚洲超大规模数据中心的供应链。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器瓶颈长持标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，他们在新的光学架构中无处不在。
英文原文
That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET , $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS , $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
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提醒方向正确也可能短期择时错误，应避免高杠杆短线。
你们这些在 $RDDT 上两天红盘后就亏99%的人是怎么做到的？ 只是持有 $AAOI 或 $MRVL 这类本来就高 beta 的个股，有那么难吗？ 你可以在方向上判断正确，但短期时点错了。 多一周或一个月，差别会非常大。
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How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
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称AAOI是当前最喜欢的美国多头并提到JBL/SIVE 1.6T机会。
回复 @DanyloAkymenko：$AAOI 是我目前最喜欢的美国多头。 我个人最近在它跌到150美元，甚至170美元时都会加仓摊高成本。 我认为一旦 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 一起量产，$JBL 应该会表现很好。今天也谈到了 $RDDT。 如果你认为 $MRVL 能到1万亿美元……
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@DanyloAkymenko $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T
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记录博通财报电话会与网络/互连长期机会。
关于 $AVGO 财报电话会的一些随手笔记： - 重申收入目标（2027年1000亿美元以上，我很确定市场原本希望这次财报上调这个目标，所以股价下跌）。 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋关于 $MRVL 围绕网络/连接/互连成为1万亿美元公司的评论吗？ - ……
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Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - https://t.co/JRiucvNnqc
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没预期英伟达今年入股Marvell，但看好其ASIC/连接收入机会。
回复 @WEB3_furture：好文章！我其实没想到 $NVDA 今年会与 $MRVL 合作并入股。 但无论如何，我本来就预计 Marvell 会因为即将到来的 ASIC/连接收入机会而成为一个有吸引力的想法。
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@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.
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梳理NVDA CPO生态中SIVE作为激光供应商的确认度。
回复 @Chi_w_wong：$NVDA CPO 生态 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天加入）。 $SIVE 100% 确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 很高概率是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 都使用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是参考激光器。 Sivers = ……
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@Chi_w_wong $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers =
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反思应更信任黄仁勋对MRVL的万亿美元评价。
好吧，经历 $NBIS 后，我确实应该更相信 Jensen 对 $MRVL 的判断。 这次他实际上给 Marvell 了1万亿美元目标。 Marvell 因一句话上涨35%。
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Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO
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一家公司的整个历史中最具后果的事件。 今天由一家光子学玩家发布。 这让它成为 CPO、可插拔和 SiPH 的功能性标准激光器。 适用于使用该代工厂的 $NVDA、$AVGO、$AMD 到 $MRVL 等公司。 有人知道名字吗？
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The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?
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称GFS新闻比SIVE+JBL更根本，因为默认嵌入参考设计。
回复 @wangxindian @StormDirac：我不确定人们是否已经意识到这条 $GFS 新闻对 $SIVE 的重大意义。 它在基本面上可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更具开创性。 因为 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA 或任何通过 GFS 硅光子的公司，都会默认把 $SIVE 嵌入参考设计。
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@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.
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黄仁勋称MRVL是下一家万亿美元公司，作者持有Marvell。
$NVDA 黄仁勋： “$MRVL 是下一家1万亿美元公司，女士们先生们。” Marvell 目前市值1910亿美元。 我持有 Marvell……但我们对 Jensen 带来5倍空间有多大信心？
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$NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D
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反驳SIVE空头，称MRVL Celestial可能直接向SIVE买激光器。
有一个新的 $SIVE 空头，完全不知道自己在说什么。 1. $MRVL Celestial 很可能直接购买激光器，$SIVE 是激光供应商，而不是通过 $POET。 因为自2023年以来，它们就被识别为可能的直接客户。 一个类比是如果 O-Net / ……
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There's a new $SIVE short seller with 0 clue what they're talking about. 1. $MRVL Celestial is likely buying lasers directly with $SIVE as the laser supplier, not through $POET. As they've been identified as a likely direct customer since 2023. An analogy is if O-Net / https://t.co/XDrPS6OVNG
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感谢比利时报纸De Tijd客观报道其CPO/光子学供应链论点。
非常感谢 De Tijd 的客观报道！ 看到我的工作出现在比利时顶级报纸上很酷。 也很欣慰看到记者报道 $AAOI、$XFAB、$MRVL Celestial，以及我在 CPO + 光子学供应链论点背后的细微差别。 感谢 KLismont 提供照片。
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Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics. Ty KLismont for the photo. https://t.co/1GdLxJHAsN
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复盘市场对SIVE从怀疑客户到怀疑执行再到份额的阶段性误解。
> 市场从怀疑 $SIVE 的客户（1.5亿美元市值）开始 结果这些客户很可能是 $JBL、Ayar、$AAPL、国防主承包商、$MRVL Celestial 等公司。 > 到怀疑其执行能力（6亿美元市值） 结果如果走 Win Semi 路线，就可以跳过资本开支。 > 再到怀疑它能拿到多少份额……
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> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
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$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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MRVL财报验证CPO主题和Celestial放量，间接指向SIVE激光需求。
$MRVL 财报是更广泛 CPO 主题的看多信号（也包括 $SIVE 作为可能的激光供应商）。 - “Scale-up interconnect 是 AI 基础设施中最新、最具战略意义的新兴机会之一。” CPO 主题 go brrr。 - 确认 Celestial 被 T1 超大云厂商选中用于 scale-up。 我过去发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 认股权证……所以很可能是 Amazon。 - 明年带 Celestial 的 scale-up 光学收入应该超过此前约1.5亿美元预期的2倍。 前瞻收入爬坡预期 go brrr。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队是“全垒打”。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长向量，上游 Celestial 供应商受益。 - $MRVL 现在专注于把 Celestial 推向高量制造。 这是放量指标。 如果你不记得，此前有 OSINT 映射显示 $SIVE 直接对应 Celestial，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的前瞻增长，是 Sivers 激光器的放量指标。
英文原文
$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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阐述SIVE如何成为下一个800亿美元LITE：CPO/1.6T激光kingmaker并通过并购扩展TAM。
为了让 $SIVE 成为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE： Sivers 是当前 CPO 和 1.6T 光学转型中的激光 kingmaker。 它们基本上向 CPO 领域的领先玩家供应激光。 从可能的 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他 CPO 玩家开始，在这些公司变大之前就合作。 现在又有 $JBL 这样的1.6T LRO 大玩家，以及更多可插拔产品测试/认证正在进行。 它们终于解决了 Catch-22 问题，并获得市场关注，可以在 NASDAQ 上市后（或现在通过股权）完成基础性 CPO 相关 IP 的下游收购。 并尽可能从激光源向以下方向扩展收入： -> 光引擎/ELS 价值。 -> 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 用2年从20亿美元到800亿美元估值一样。 但不同的是，Sivers 正在 CPO 超级周期中做这件事，这是光子学史上最快的 TAM 扩张。 我关注的是它们能否完成这种大卫对歌利亚式的转变，追赶 $LITE。 这比当前发生的小市值百分比回报更让我在意。
英文原文
For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.