$SKHY
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驳斥克拉默观点，基于基本面看好内存与存储股，中期看多 Leopold 持仓。
今天看到吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）支持对冲基金做空 Leopold 关于 $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix 的“胡言乱语”式看涨观点。同时克拉默称 $CRWD 为“必买”。我不确定克拉默是否看到一家被贴上“网络安全”标签的 2410 亿美元市值公司就认为其安全，而忽略了所有基本面。但就 CrowdStrike 而言，这是一家 2028 财年远期市盈率（Forward P/E）约 145 倍、营收同比增长 26% 的公司，克拉默却认为它是“必买”。然后看看 Leopold 做多的 AI 资本支出受益主题。像 $SKHY / 三星在 $DRAM 领域……分析师预测 2027 财年远期市盈率仅约 2.8-3 倍。-> 三星签订至 2031 年的长期协议（LTA）（70% 产能）以确保耐用性…… -> SK Hynix 提供最低价格底线 + 无价格上限类型的合同。-> 未来一年内存短缺将更加严峻。-> DRAM/NAND 占超大规模云厂商资本支出的比例更高（Trendforce 估计为 68%）。-> 2027 年超大规模云厂商资本支出预测全部上调。至于 $SNDK，2030 年自由现金流（FCF）利润率预计达 50%，毛利率达 80%。我唯一不同意 Situational Awareness 持仓的是 $CRWV，因为债务利息侵蚀自由现金流，但我可以对 $BE、$INTC、$AMD 等提出类似的看涨论点。短期尚不确定，但中期来看：鉴于压倒性的基本面，很难不认为 Leopold 的持仓会走出与克拉默截然相反（Inverse Cramer）的走势。
英文原文
I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls. As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy". I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals. But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy". And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on. With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections. -> Samsung LTAs to 2031 (70% capacity) for durability... -> Minimum price floor + no price ceiling type contracts from SK Hynix. -> Memory shortage much tigher for the next year. -> DRAM/NAND % of hyperscaler capex goes higher (est. 68% per Trendforce) -> 2027 hyperscaler capex projections all hiked. Then with $SNDK, 50% FCF margins, 80% gross margin projections into 2030. Only Situational Awareness position I'm in disagreement with is $CRWV due to debt interest eating FCF, but I can make a similar bullish argument with $BE, $INTC, $AMD, and others. Not quite sure about short-term, but over the medium run: It's hard to not see Leopold's positions pulling an Inverse Cramer due to overwhelming fundamentals.
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Leopold买入多只半导体股票期权，因隐含波动率高而不意外。
看起来“情境感知”又回来了： 消息人士称，Leopold 购买了 $AMD、$BE、$CRWV 和 $DRAM 的期权。 并且在 $SKHY 和 $SNDK 等其他股票上也有活跃操作。 鉴于整体期权隐含波动率(Implied Volatility)相当高，这并不令人意外。 https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO
英文原文
Looks like Situational Awareness is back: Sources say Leopold bought options in $AMD, $BE, $CRWV, and $DRAM. And was active in other stocks such as $SKHY, and $SNDK. Little surprising since option IV across the board is quite high. https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO
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韩国零售界因三星高杠杆前景，在代币化辩论中支持HOOD。
根据我的渠道调研，韩国零售市场似乎坚定地站在 $HOOD 一边，而非 $AMC 的 CEO。韩国方面认为，40 倍杠杆的三星 / $SKHY 这一前景，足以成为赢得代币化辩论的有力论据。
英文原文
From my channel checks, it appears Korean retail is firmly siding with $HOOD over the $AMC CEO. Korean sources find the prospect of 40x leveraged Samsung / $SKHY a powerful enough argument to win the tokenization debate.
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梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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韩国监管加码致杠杆芯片ETF交易量暴跌，微软Windows成散户交易障碍。
我会怀念韩国散户对 $EWY / 三星 / $SKHY 每日波动反应强烈的日子。 新文章：“随着监管限制生效，韩国日内交易者逃离杠杆芯片ETF” - 旨在提供三星/ SK海力士 2倍每日回报的ETF交易量已降至6月峰值的4% - 该要求紧随此前旨在抑制投机活动的高最低存款等措施之后 - 然后出现了最终BOSS……一个为期5天的交易课程，其中： “投资者必须下载仅限Windows的程序，并每天至少花一小时使用虚拟资金进行交易” $MSFT Windows 击溃了韩国散户。
英文原文
I'm going to miss the days of Korean retail reacting heavily to $EWY / Samsung / $SKHY daily volatility. New piece: "Korean day traders flee leveraged chip ETFs as regulatory curbs bite" - Trading value in ETFs designed to deliver 2x daily returns of Samsung / SK Hynix has fallen to just 4% of its June peak - The requirement follows earlier measures, including a higher minimum deposit, aimed at cooling speculative activity - And then came the final boss... A 5 day trading course where: "Investors must download a Windows-only program and spend at least one hour each day trading with virtual funds" $MSFT Windows wiped out the Korean retail.
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存储需求呈结构性短缺，看好板块远期估值上升。
所以……回到存储这边，我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示：“我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示：“我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 闪存都存在结构性的巨大需求”，非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%。 $NVDA 表示供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动……与此同时，存储定价处于“极端”水平且还在继续上涨。 Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论。 我之前就说过，存储需求看起来是结构性的，而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM 高带宽内存，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年…… 所以我确实认为，整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会。
英文原文
所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%. $NVDA 表示 供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平 而且还在继续上涨. Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论. 我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年.. 所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.
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推测SK海力士CPO供应链涉及Ayar/Celestial及上游SIVE等。
既然大家都在愉快地猜测 $SKHY 共封装光学(CPO) 路线图供应链。 我来猜一下：SK 海力士正在评估 Celestial/Ayar。随后将重点评估第一代部署后的 microLEDs（微发光二极管）。 这两家公司其实已经在这方面工作了一段时间。 - Ayar 出现在 SK 海力士官网上，语境是光 <-> 内存链接。 - Marvell 正积极与 SK 海力士合作定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁拥有 Celestial）。 Celestial/Ayar 也被 SK 海力士链接的 Nature 论文引用，这在技术相关性上提供了一些佐证： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up... 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光 I/O 芯片组），顺便提一下 Stojanovic 是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳，Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想保持篇幅简短。 关于更多上游受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最清晰的受益标的，因为他们很可能同时供应给 Celestial/Ayar。 中介层/封装 IP 层... 人们曾猜测 $POET，但 Marvell 可能在宣布后今年就通过垂直整合将他们淘汰了。 鉴于他们在 Celestial 被收购前就拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如 2023 年展示过硅光中介层） -> AMS Osram（我不持有），看起来他们正在这一领域共同开发，因为他们今年特意指出 HBM <-> 光学对他们来说是一个 TAM（总可服务市场）增长点。 TLDR：我认为 Ayar/Celestial 是 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLEDs 可能在 2029 年左右实现第一代后的商业化。（这纯属猜测） 顺便给量子点粉丝一点甜头，这篇论文引用了它 5 次。
英文原文
Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.
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AI资金回流高流动性板块，半导体供应链多处出现涨价与瓶颈。
我很高兴杠杆交易者们从AI股票撤出，转回高流动性板块和生物科技（如$MRNA），这样我们或许能更快看到复苏。 除此之外，一些要点摘要： - $EWY上涨，主要得益于SK海力士的回购（他们利润太丰厚了），以及三星晶圆代工约10-15%的涨价。 - $SKHY发布共封装光学(CPO)路线图？看来他们在做光子中介层与内存连接的技术，我得深入看看。 这可能会带来更大的潜在市场(TAM)扩张，以及更多供应链受益者（如激光器、光子集成电路(PICs)、封装）。 - $YMTC继长鑫存储(CMXT)成功IPO后，计划下季度寻求IPO。 中国IPO市场正从宇树科技到内存制造商全面爆发。 美国应该采取类似做法，而不是让公司在万亿估值时IPO。 - Tyntek涨停，鉴于光子领域光电二极管需求失衡，其订单可见度已至2028年。 Elazr总经理曾表示整个光学供应链面临严重短缺……我接下来可能会更关注高端光电二极管瓶颈。 - 摩根士丹利预测DDR4在Q3环比涨价50%，2026年Q4涨价10%+。（南亚/2408，旺宏/2344应该很高兴）。 - 据报道，中国推迟对台湾出口锗、石英基材料和钕磁铁的许可。 所以我可能会一边吃杯面一边研究那里的供应链中断问题。 - 高端PCB钻头短缺（仍在持续），凯美(5498)称AI数据中心、服务器和光通信正在推动PCB、HDI和封装基板的需求，同时钨价上涨。 尽管全球五大钻头制造商正在积极扩产，供应仍远低于整体市场需求。 只是最近发现的一些有趣内容，当然$MRNA的事也挺有意思。
英文原文
I'm glad the leverage bros moved from AI stocks back to Hyerliquid and biotech like $MRNA, so maybe we'll see a faster recovery. Aside from that just some TLDR stuff: - $EWY up, primarily from SK Hynix buybacks (they're just too profitable), and Samsung Foundry roughly ~10-15% price hikes. - $SKHY unveils CPO roadmap?? Apparently they're doing something with photonic interposer that links to memory, so I gotta look a bit deeper into this Probably going to be more TAM expansion, more supply chain beneficiaries (eg. lasers, PICs, packaging) off this. - $YMTC pursuing IPO next quarter following CMXT's successful IPO. The Chinese IPO market is just going brrr from Unitree to memory makers. US needs to do something similar rather than IPOing companies at trillion dollar valuations already. - Tyntek limit up there's now order visibility through 2028, given photodiode demand imbalance for photonics. Elazr GM did say the entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages... I'll probably look more at high-end PD bottlenecks next. - MS forecasts a 50% Q/Q price increase for DDR4 for Q3, and 10%+ increase for Q4 2026. (Nanya/2408, Windbond/2344, should be happy). - China reportedly delays clearance from germanium, quartz-based materials, and neodymium magnets To taiwan. So I'll probably have some fun looking into supply chains disruptions there over cup noodles. - High-end PCB drill shortage (still ongoing), Kawei (5498) said AI DCs, servers and optical communications are driving demand for PCBs, HDI and package substrates, while tungsten prices are rising. Though the world's five largest drill manufacturers are aggressively expanding capacity, supply remains far below overall market demand Just stuff I found interesting recently, obviously $MRNA stuff is too.
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引用群联CEO观点，认为NAND供应瓶颈将持续数年，反驳看空论调。
关于 $SNDK、$SKHY、$MU、Kioxia 以及你们关注的 NAND 玩家，这里有一些更多关于需求失衡可见性的信息。 群联电子(Phison) CEO：“2027 年的产能限制将比 2026 年更为严峻。” “上游供应商从工厂建设和设备投资到实际生产需要长达 4 年的时间。 随着需求爆炸式增长且供应扩张有限，NAND 短缺可能会持续数年。” 我完全不同意那些声称存储（尤其是 2026 年的 NAND 瓶颈）已经彻底结束的人的观点...
英文原文
Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...
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美政府劝苹果弃购中国存储，CXMT/YMTC涨价打破廉价印象。
美国政府敦促 $AAPL 不要购买中国存储芯片。 $MU、$SKHY 和三星听到这个消息很高兴…… 颇具讽刺意味的是，长鑫存储(CXMT)/长江存储(YMTC)也在涨价，所以这并非“充斥市场的廉价中国存储芯片”。 在人工智能繁荣之前，苹果曾经拥有极强的供应商议价能力。
英文原文
US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips. $MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this... Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market". Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.
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Citadel清算情境感知基金后，AI及半导体板块次日大幅反弹。
Citadel 真的刚刚清算了 Situational Awareness（情境感知基金）…… 然后在第二天拉起了整个市场？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 以及其他许多股票。这必须是我见过的最疯狂的清算之一 https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
英文原文
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
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SKHY美股因ADR转换机制启动，套利将抹平20-50%溢价。
@chengchushow - SK海力士主要在韩国交易 - $SKHY 在美国上市，流通盘有限，约占流通股的2.5%（这被称为美国存托凭证(ADR)） - 尽管SK海力士是同一家公司，但两地股票独立交易。 - 由于供应有限但美国需求旺盛，SK海力士美股较韩国上市价格存在20-50%的溢价。 -> ADR允许在韩国股票和美国股票之间进行转换，转换将于29日开始 - 如果将22.5%的韩国供应转换为美国供应，那20-50%的溢价很可能会下降 例如：如果芒果供应有限，有人出价3美元买芒果。 你以1美元买入同样的芒果。你不断买入1美元的芒果并以3美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这被称为套利(arbitrage)，也是交易员可能会做的。
英文原文
@chengchushow - Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.
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SKHY 7月29日可转换，套利将压缩ADR溢价。
关注 $SKHY 相对于 SK 海力士韩国本土股票 25%+ 溢价的各位： 美国存托凭证(ADR) 与本土股票将于 7 月 29 日实现可转换。 这将为套利(arbitrage) 打开大门，很可能压缩 ADR 溢价。可能会提振韩国本土股价或压制美股股价。 目前 2.5% 为美国 ADR 股票，因此还有额外的 22.5% 可以转换。
英文原文
For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.
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券商称DRAM短缺加剧，内存供需紧张将持续至2028年。
Meritz Securities的Kim Sunwoo：“现在不是抛售三星电子和$SKHY的时候。” 他们认为市场过度误解了半导体局势，且DRAM短缺将在今年下半年加剧。 - 2026年下半年：“供应商仅能满足75%–80%的DRAM需求”。 - 2027年：“满足率预计降至60%区间。” 文章中附带了市场预测，显示SK海力士2027年市盈率为3.5倍，三星为3.9倍。 认为$INTC CEO关于时间框架的言论最到位：“直到至少2028年，内存供应和价格都不会缓解”。 特别是在$MU签署16份有利的“提货或付款”长期协议后，内存需求似乎具有结构性。
英文原文
Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.
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内存股基本面强劲，短期或回调，SK海力士资产负债表优于宏观。
内存板块的自由现金流(FCF)数据过于强劲。整体远期市盈率(Forward P/E)均为个位数。 我预计部分触及历史高点(ATH)的个股会出现非常短期的回调（这是健康的），这是我的猜测。 有些个别公司的基本面，比如SK海力士($SKHY)，简直离谱。资产负债表 > 宏观环境。
英文原文
FCF numbers are way too strong for memory. Single digit forward p/e across the board. I’d expect a very short term pullback (which is healthy) for some the names into ATHs is my guess. There are some individual companies where fundamentals like Sk Hynix are just too ridiculous. Balance sheet > macro.