$ESMT
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NOR/SLC NAND严重短缺，ESMT因高密度产品受益最大，强烈看多。
NOR Flash“严重供应短缺”，高密度产品下半年持续涨价90-110%。 我想知道谁同时销售高密度NOR和SLC NAND？*咳咳，$ESMT* 上半年涨幅： NOR：+100–120% SLC NAND：+130–150% 下半年涨幅： 高密度NOR：下半年90-110% SLC NAND：~70–75%。 显然还有华邦电子/宏碁/兆易创新等其他厂商，但我对ESMT的观点和持仓是，相对于其体量，它是此次短缺的最大受益者。（他们销售NOR：>256Mb） 适度的看空部分是： “对于128Mb及以下的中低容量产品，中国供应商的额外产能正在逐步上线。 因此，消费级产品的价格上涨预计将趋于温和” 然而，这一更新对传统内存厂商的盈利来说，压倒性地看多。 让ASP（平均售价）涨价游戏继续吧。
英文原文
NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2. I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT* For H1 hikes: NOR: +100–120% SLC NAND: +130–150% For H2 hikes: High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2 SLC NAND: ~70–75%. Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb) The moderate bearish part is: “For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate” However, this update is overwhelmingly bullish for earnings of legacy memory players. Let the ASP hike games continue.
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ESMT 8 月收入同比大增，两月环比增 63%。
更新一下我关于 ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3 内存观点。他们公布了 8 月收入（台湾有时按月披露）： 6 月收入：约 1.53 亿美元 7 月：约 2.14 亿美元 8 月（最新）：约 2.49 亿美元，对比去年同期的 3530 万美元 尽管据报道存在 https://t.co/Ww5IMRW1LW 的情况，月收入在两个月内仍增长了约 63%。
英文原文
Just an update to my DDR2/DDR3 memory idea with ESMT. They reported August revenue (Taiwan sometimes does monthly reporting): June revenue: ~$153M July: ~$214M August (new): ~$249M vs. $35.3m (last year) Monthly revenue has increased ~63% in two months despite reportedly https://t.co/Ww5IMRW1LW
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ESMT因DDR3供应紧张及高经营杠杆，Q2 ASP暴涨，前景看好。
我越研究 ESMT，对成熟制程存储(legacy memory)主题就越兴奋。 于是查阅了上半年的卖方模型... 3月 ESMT 报告： 华南(Huanan)：Q2 DDR3 4Gb ASP 环比+50% 富邦(Fubon)：引用 Q2 DRAM 价格约+40% 到了8月... 华南引用 ESMT Q2 ASP 增长： 环比+105–113% 混合。 称 DDR3 价格表现远超预期。 因此成熟制程存储价格转化为 ESMT 更高的经营杠杆。 关于力晶(PSMC)晶圆成本上涨：华南估计 H226 制造成本可能上涨~100%，但客户仍高度愿意接受转嫁。 若看7月净利润约1.09亿美元... 远高于早期模型构建的盈利水平。 如果我要给出报告的 TLDR “共识” 1. 随着竞争对手将产能转向高价值存储，DDR3/DDR2 供应保持结构性紧张。 2. 康和(Concord)认为 2026 年没有支持价格反转的条件。 3. 康和预计合约价上涨将覆盖更高的晶圆厂成本。 4. 华南后来发现客户接受这些成本上涨的意愿比预期更强。 从华南读到有趣的一点是 DDR3 用于 IP 摄像头和 HDD 等产品，其中内存组件在客户总 BOM 中占比较小。 因此即使成熟制程 DRAM 价格大幅上涨，成品 BOM 可能只增加几美元... 对许多客户而言，多付几美元比重新设计+重新认证更经济（但这实质性地流入 ESMT 的净利润） 总之，对这个想法很兴奋（*披露我持有仓位） TLDR： -> 华南更新 ESMT 混合 Q2 ASP 环比+105-113% -> 鉴于7月净利润爆发（使 ESMT 年化 RR 市盈率达 1.9x），若缺乏弹性持续+ESMT 因成品 BOM 成本低而能进一步提价，未来前景令人兴奋。 -> 迹象表明客户仍愿意接受力晶晶圆涨价的转嫁。
英文原文
The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of: +105–113% Q/Q blended. Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected. So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT. About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around. If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports 1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory. 2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026. 3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs. 4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected. Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM. So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income) Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions) TLDR: -> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q -> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due to low % of finished product BOM cost. -> Indication customers were still willing to accept pass through for PSMC wafer hikes.
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DRAM产能转向导致短缺，ESMT因垄断利基市场而受益。
简单总结一下： 有个叫 $NVDA 的家伙食量巨大。英伟达只想从农民手里买高价土豆。 土豆农 $MU 原本卖胡萝卜……现在把农田改种土豆了。 英伟达导致了一场严重的土豆饥荒，因为它吃得太多。所以其他种胡萝卜的，比如 SK 海力士和三星，都把产能转去种土豆了。 但是……人们仍然需要吃饭。胡萝卜是日常健康饮食的一部分。 现在除了像“ESMT”这样的传统胡萝卜农，没人种胡萝卜了。 所以现在大家都从 ESMT 买胡萝卜，导致短缺，价格上涨。 所以 ESMT 需要更多胡萝卜种子（来自 PSMC）。但 PSMC 的胡萝卜种子也快不够用了。 所以 PSMC 向 ESMT 收取更高的种子费。 但 ESMT 卖胡萝卜的价格远高于 PSMC 提高的种子成本。 现在……ESMT 卖胡萝卜赚得足够多，基于7月财报的交易市盈率仅为1.9倍。 ESMT 能一直卖胡萝卜到2027年吗？ 其他所有农民都这么认为，因为把宝贵的土豆农场改回胡萝卜农场既困难又缺乏动力。
英文原文
Okay just to simplify this: There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers. A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos. Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato. But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet.. Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer. So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up. So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots. So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds. But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price. now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings. Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027? All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.
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易胜达受益于成熟存储涨价且估值偏低，建议做多易胜达而非美光。
是的，易胜达(ESMT, 3006) 涉足多个成熟制程(legacy)存储细分市场。 其产品组合包括：SLC/SPI NAND、NOR Flash、DDR2/DDR3、MCP/eMCP，也就是所有有趣的成熟制程产品。 如果你想关注易胜达所涉猎的更广泛的行业涨价趋势： 1. SLC NAND：2026年下半年预计上涨约120-170%。 2. DDR2：2026年第三季度预计上涨约35-40%。 3. DDR4：第三季度+30–40%（伴随DDR3供应收紧） 4. NOR：下半年+60–65%+（高密度） 5. MCP/eMCP：据我估算，易胜达环比可能上涨约+15–25% 官方收入结构拆解： DDR2 + DDR3：约占收入的45% DDR4/其他DRAM ~ 10% 的收入 eMCP/MCP ≈30% 模拟及其他 ≈15% 无论如何，持续时间和涨价幅度是关键： -> “没有任何一家全球主要SLC NAND供应商计划在近期增加新产能。” -> TrendForce特别预计，库存耗尽将使SLC NAND在第四季度供应更加紧张。 -> 华邦电子(Winbond)退出DDR2，将使库存更加紧张（他们正在分配订单至2029-2030年） -> 易胜达管理层表示，市场的主要问题在于供应而非需求；公司的晶圆代工产能分配仅覆盖了客户订单的大约60–70% -> 南亚科(Nanya)：“内存短缺可能持续到2027年底，2028年供需依然紧张” -> 南亚科明确表示，产能限制可能导致DDR5、LPDDR5、DDR4、LPDDR4和DDR3全面短缺。 -> 易胜达将eMCP列为因成熟制程资源被转移至其他领域而获得订单转移红利的产品之一 ______ 如果我要再次陈述我的观点： 我认为，尽管已计入力积电(PSMC) 45%的晶圆涨价因素，易胜达约1.9倍的7月年化运行市盈率(P/E)可能会进一步压缩，因为成熟存储价格仍在上涨。 行业评论支持这种趋势将持续至2027年。 锦上添花的是，如果我们开始看到长期协议(LTAs)以及对2029-2030年的可见度（但这尚未计入估值）。 我认为市场要么不知道这一点，要么错误定价了持续时间，要么高估了力积电晶圆涨价的影响。 也许玩经典LOL中排名第一的挑战者“易胜达”的双排，比玩卡在低分段的“美光(Micron)”更有趣？
英文原文
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments. Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff. If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to: 1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026. 2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026. 3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening) 4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density) 5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate For official breakdown: DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue eMCP/MCP ≈30% Analog + other ≈15% Regardless, duration/hikes is the key: -> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term." -> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4. -> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030) -> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders -> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028" ->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3. -> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere ______ If I had to state my thoughts again: I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes. Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027. Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in). I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's wafer hike effects. Maybe playing duoQ with Rank 1 Challenger "ESMT" in LoL classic... Is more fun than playing with hardstuck "Micron" in League?
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华邦退出DDR2加剧短缺，南亚科成关键供应商，ASP看涨。
@Berlinergy 华邦电($WIN) 实际上正在退出 DDR2 领域，转而专注于 DDR4/DDR3，并表示预计 2027 年供应将更加紧张。他们已开始讨论 2029-2030 年的产能规划，并向高端产品转型，因此不太可能再向旧产线分配太多资源。至于其他厂商转向旧产线，认证耗时极长……且激励极低。我查看了晶圆代工依赖度，力积电($PSMC) 是台湾企业，地缘政治上没问题。关于晶圆分配，如果戴上供应链韧性这顶帽子，如果南亚科($ESMT) 停止供应 DDR2，下游将遭受毁灭性打击，所以我不认为会出现这种情况（因为如果华邦退出，他们可能是该产线全球最大的独立供应商）。所以我不太认为会发生……但如果他们获得的晶圆分配减少，平均售价(ASP) 只会进一步上涨，因此盈利可能依然强劲。
英文原文
@Berlinergy Winbond is actually withdrawing from DDR2 to focus on DDR4/DDR3 and said they expect 2027 to be even tighter. They're beginning capacity discussions for 2029-2030 + moving toward higher end, so don't quite see them having much to allocate toward older lines again. As for other players moving toward older lines, qualification takes a lot of time... and there's just very low incentive to. I looked for foundry dependence, PSMC is Taiwanese, so all good geopolitically. As for wafer allocations, if I had to put my supply chain hat resiliency hat on, if ESMT stopped supplying DDR2, it would just be absolute destruction downstream, so don't see that scenario (since they're probably the world's largest merchant supplier for this line if Winbond exits) So don't quite think it would happen... but if they get less wafer allocations, the ASP just gets hiked even more, so earnings would likely remain strong.
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博主维持存储看多，减仓美光等高位股，转配光子学及低位传统存储。
我一直对2026-2027年期间的存储（Memory）持看多态度，涉及 $MU / 三星 / $SKHYNIX。即使听完 $NVDA 财报电话会，观点依旧不变。我一直极力辩护高端存储需求是结构性的，且对营业利润（Operating Income）有巨大的经营杠杆（OP）效应（尤其在伊朗紧张局势影响LNG/氦气时）。英伟达财报再次证实了我们对极端需求的认知，因为承诺支出从1190亿美元飙升至2790亿美元，主要由存储采购驱动。英伟达CFO也表示：“我们正经历存储的极端定价环境。”关于我的操作，2026年上半年我在存储板块极度超配：包括 $MU, $SNDK, 群联(Phison), $SIMO, 南亚(Nanya), Macronix, 华邦(Winbond) 以及 $EWY / 三星/海力士（涵盖HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。除了保留三星/海力士的多头头寸外，我减仓了其他持仓，因为我认为许多标的已重新估值（例如美光从$300涨至$1000+）。我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经结束，现在只是等待营业利润跟上（尤其是三星）的博弈期。我利用这段时间超配了光子学（Photonics）。但我认为我们正看到新一轮的涨价潮向下传导至“传统中的传统”存储如DDR2/DDR3，随着华邦等传统玩家退出部分领域。当价格涨幅最终达到环比40-60%时，这让我想起了当年 $SNDK 在DDR2/DDR3领域的极端行情。因此我开始建立 ESMT（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）和 Etron 的头寸。也许我们会在传统存储堆栈的更底层看到价格发现时刻（可能我会错），但这是我近期关注的领域。
英文原文
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.