北京时间 2026-08-27 13:46:04 · 个股论点

博主维持存储看多，减仓美光等高位股，转配光子学及低位传统存储。

涉及标的： $ESMT $ETRON $EWY $MU $NVDA $SIMO $SNDK

中文翻译

我一直对2026-2027年期间的存储（Memory）持看多态度，涉及 $MU / 三星 / $SKHYNIX。即使听完 $NVDA 财报电话会，观点依旧不变。我一直极力辩护高端存储需求是结构性的，且对营业利润（Operating Income）有巨大的经营杠杆（OP）效应（尤其在伊朗紧张局势影响LNG/氦气时）。英伟达财报再次证实了我们对极端需求的认知，因为承诺支出从1190亿美元飙升至2790亿美元，主要由存储采购驱动。英伟达CFO也表示：“我们正经历存储的极端定价环境。”关于我的操作，2026年上半年我在存储板块极度超配：包括 $MU, $SNDK, 群联(Phison), $SIMO, 南亚(Nanya), Macronix, 华邦(Winbond) 以及 $EWY / 三星/海力士（涵盖HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。除了保留三星/海力士的多头头寸外，我减仓了其他持仓，因为我认为许多标的已重新估值（例如美光从$300涨至$1000+）。我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经结束，现在只是等待营业利润跟上（尤其是三星）的博弈期。我利用这段时间超配了光子学（Photonics）。但我认为我们正看到新一轮的涨价潮向下传导至“传统中的传统”存储如DDR2/DDR3，随着华邦等传统玩家退出部分领域。当价格涨幅最终达到环比40-60%时，这让我想起了当年 $SNDK 在DDR2/DDR3领域的极端行情。因此我开始建立 ESMT（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）和 Etron 的头寸。也许我们会在传统存储堆栈的更底层看到价格发现时刻（可能我会错），但这是我近期关注的领域。

英文原文

I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.

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