概念词典 · 技术
HBM 高带宽内存
通过 TSV 硅通孔把多片 DRAM 垂直堆叠在 GPU/AI 加速器旁边的高带宽内存方案，AI 训练算力的真正瓶颈。
别名： HBM／ 高带宽内存／ high bandwidth memory／ HBM3／ HBM3E／ HBM4
是什么
High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) 是把 8-16 片 DRAM 通过 TSV (硅通孔) 垂直堆叠成一柱，再通过 interposer 紧贴 GPU 芯片放置的内存方案。相比传统 DDR / GDDR：
- 带宽提升 10x+（HBM3E 单 stack 1.2 TB/s）
- 功耗下降约 40%
- 但单位价格高 5-10 倍，且全球只有三家能做：SK Hynix、Micron、Samsung
为什么是 AI 时代真正的瓶颈
GPU 算力按摩尔定律继续扩张，但内存带宽如果跟不上，算力就被”喂不饱”。LLM 训练里，70% 的时间是在等内存，不是在算。NVIDIA H200/B100/B200/B300 一代比一代堆更多 HBM，HBM 的产能直接决定 GPU 的产能。
Serenity 的视角
他对 HBM 的核心论点是 “内存周期被 AI 永久改变”：
- 传统 DRAM 是 18-24 个月一个周期（涨价→产能扩张→过剩→跌价）
- HBM 因为产能切换成本高、且 AI 需求是结构性的，这一轮涨价可能持续到 2028 年才转折
代表标的：
- $MU Micron：纯美股 HBM 标的
- SK Hynix（韩股）：HBM3E 良率第一
- Samsung（韩股）：追赶者，HBM4 是翻盘机会
- $SNDK SanDisk：周期类标的，被他归类为”周期 + AI 双 buff”
看图理解
他常引用一张”内存周期图”，2028 年前持续提价、需求永久增加、毛利率扩张三件事叠加，等于”高额利润周期”。
提到此概念的推文 (95)
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博主看好光子学供应链，认为激光器光纤将重现内存超级周期。
花旗银行TMT团队：“激光器和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM（高带宽内存）’。我从2025年就开始谈论像 $LITE / $AAOI 这样的激光器公司，以及向连续波(CW)架构的转变，这领先于当前的行业共识。我完全同意Lightmatter和花旗的观点。仅供参考：激光器方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / 古河电工 / 住友电工是较知名的标的。光纤方面：$GLW / 古河电工 / 古河光缆 / 住友电工是较知名的敞口（显然供应链中还有更多）。*披露，个人对该主题有持仓。补充评论称：‘紧张的供应状况将支持这些资产的稀缺性溢价。’我们已经看到激光器价格上涨，正如今天在深圳CIOE 2026上看到的 $SIVE 渠道检查以及 $LITE 的财报评论所示。因此，我认为2027-2028年的光子学超级周期将非常类似于2025-2026年的内存周期。尤其是随着高盛修正后的估计显示，每GPU-ASIC的光学内容将显著增加……
英文原文
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
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梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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存储需求呈结构性短缺，看好板块远期估值上升。
所以……回到存储这边，我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示：“我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示：“我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 闪存都存在结构性的巨大需求”，非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%。 $NVDA 表示供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动……与此同时，存储定价处于“极端”水平且还在继续上涨。 Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论。 我之前就说过，存储需求看起来是结构性的，而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM 高带宽内存，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年…… 所以我确实认为，整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会。
英文原文
所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%. $NVDA 表示 供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平 而且还在继续上涨. Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论. 我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年.. 所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.
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博主维持存储看多，减仓美光等高位股，转配光子学及低位传统存储。
我一直对2026-2027年期间的存储（Memory）持看多态度，涉及 $MU / 三星 / $SKHYNIX。即使听完 $NVDA 财报电话会，观点依旧不变。我一直极力辩护高端存储需求是结构性的，且对营业利润（Operating Income）有巨大的经营杠杆（OP）效应（尤其在伊朗紧张局势影响LNG/氦气时）。英伟达财报再次证实了我们对极端需求的认知，因为承诺支出从1190亿美元飙升至2790亿美元，主要由存储采购驱动。英伟达CFO也表示：“我们正经历存储的极端定价环境。”关于我的操作，2026年上半年我在存储板块极度超配：包括 $MU, $SNDK, 群联(Phison), $SIMO, 南亚(Nanya), Macronix, 华邦(Winbond) 以及 $EWY / 三星/海力士（涵盖HBM/DRAM + NAND + 传统DRAM/NAND + 控制器 + NOR Flash）。除了保留三星/海力士的多头头寸外，我减仓了其他持仓，因为我认为许多标的已重新估值（例如美光从$300涨至$1000+）。我认为最大的价格发现阶段已经结束，现在只是等待营业利润跟上（尤其是三星）的博弈期。我利用这段时间超配了光子学（Photonics）。但我认为我们正看到新一轮的涨价潮向下传导至“传统中的传统”存储如DDR2/DDR3，随着华邦等传统玩家退出部分领域。当价格涨幅最终达到环比40-60%时，这让我想起了当年 $SNDK 在DDR2/DDR3领域的极端行情。因此我开始建立 ESMT（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）和 Etron 的头寸。也许我们会在传统存储堆栈的更底层看到价格发现时刻（可能我会错），但这是我近期关注的领域。
英文原文
I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash). I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already). I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung) And I used that period to go overweight on photonics. But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like DDR2/DDR3 with the "legacy" players like Winbond leaving some of those segments. Where the price hikes finally hit the 40-60% Q/Q mark, which reminds me of the extreme $SNDK days, across DDR2/DDR3. Which is why I started up positions in ESMT (1.9x P/E from July annualized) and Etron. Maybe we'll see a price discovery moment further down the legacy memory stack (could be wrong), but that's the area I've focused on recently.
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推测SK海力士CPO供应链涉及Ayar/Celestial及上游SIVE等。
既然大家都在愉快地猜测 $SKHY 共封装光学(CPO) 路线图供应链。 我来猜一下：SK 海力士正在评估 Celestial/Ayar。随后将重点评估第一代部署后的 microLEDs（微发光二极管）。 这两家公司其实已经在这方面工作了一段时间。 - Ayar 出现在 SK 海力士官网上，语境是光 <-> 内存链接。 - Marvell 正积极与 SK 海力士合作定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁拥有 Celestial）。 Celestial/Ayar 也被 SK 海力士链接的 Nature 论文引用，这在技术相关性上提供了一些佐证： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up... 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光 I/O 芯片组），顺便提一下 Stojanovic 是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳，Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想保持篇幅简短。 关于更多上游受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最清晰的受益标的，因为他们很可能同时供应给 Celestial/Ayar。 中介层/封装 IP 层... 人们曾猜测 $POET，但 Marvell 可能在宣布后今年就通过垂直整合将他们淘汰了。 鉴于他们在 Celestial 被收购前就拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如 2023 年展示过硅光中介层） -> AMS Osram（我不持有），看起来他们正在这一领域共同开发，因为他们今年特意指出 HBM <-> 光学对他们来说是一个 TAM（总可服务市场）增长点。 TLDR：我认为 Ayar/Celestial 是 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLEDs 可能在 2029 年左右实现第一代后的商业化。（这纯属猜测） 顺便给量子点粉丝一点甜头，这篇论文引用了它 5 次。
英文原文
Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈显现，内存、基板、组件及先进封装需求强劲，行业加速扩张。
一些我感兴趣的要点摘要： - $SNDK 投资者日显示，预计至2030年调整后毛利率达80%，运营利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约50%。 长期协议(LTA)已占2028年产能的2/3。最低合同收入达930亿美元（当前市值约2390亿美元）... 当你的收入/目标预计在未来4年持续至2030年时，很难将其视为周期性股票。 - $CRWV 签署合同，将使用6年前的 $NVDA A100 GPU 直至2029年。 对于 Nebius/Iren 等新型云服务商(Neoclouds)而言，这是利好，因为它反驳了如 Burry 的折旧看空论点。 - 据 UBS 估计，传统 DRAM 毛利率（如美光）到2027年将达到前所未有的95%，超越 HBM 毛利率。 如果预测准确，像南亚(Nanya)/华邦(Winbond)这样的传统/标准 DRAM 玩家应该会“起飞”(go brrrr)。 - 据报道，Anthropic 实现了14倍以上的同比增长，Q2环比收入增长约2.4倍至>115亿美元，预计2028年收入达190-2000亿美元。 你的前沿实验室保持疯狂的增长速度，如果不这样反而令人担忧。 - $NVDA 据报道正洽谈向 SB Energy（软银子公司）投资30亿美元，与 Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、Goldman 等共同推动 >5000 亿美元的算力融资。$NVDA Feynman 预计2028年下半年转向 TSMC A16 + SoIC + 定制 HBM + 共封装光学(CPO)。 每天都有更多英伟达新闻。 - $MSFT Maia 300 讨论了 $TSM 2027年 >30万颗的产能，并计划扩展至100万+。最快9月发布。 $MRVL 对此消息可能更高兴。关于当前情况： - 可能是微软当前 ASIC 扩产的受益者(GUC)。 - 对于亚马逊阵营，像 Alchip（我持有股份）可能在2026年下半年随 $AMZN ASIC 项目扩产... 所以关注超大规模云厂商 ASIC 扩产时间表及其受益者可能是个好主意。 - $TSM 先进封装副总裁表示“行业未来几年可能不仅面临内存短缺，还将面临 ABF 基板供应紧张”... 强调内存和 ABF 基板在未来几年都是瓶颈。 甚至上游 ABF 基板设备供应商也很高兴，例如使用真空层压设备的 Eternal Precision 表示订单激增，工厂满负荷运行，价格上涨20%+。 - $AMAT 预计2026年先进封装收入增长 >70%（此前预期 >50%），并表示客户讨论已延伸至2030年。 （不太熟悉这家公司，但发现其从2025 Q4 $68亿 -> $70.1亿 -> 79.1亿 -> $91.2亿 -> 2026 Q4 $102.5亿的预测增长率很有趣） - Google 在 OCP APAC 表示传统 48V 已无余量。$NVDA 详细说明了2026年下半年兼容 MGX 的 800VDC 机架（时间线，Delta / Lite-On 受益）。 - 除 $SNDK 外，南亚 LTA 覆盖50%产能。CXMT 上月签署多年 DRAM 协议，因此整个内存行业似乎都在效仿三大巨头的剧本。 - 探针卡(Probe cards)仍是瓶颈，MPI(6223)表示其探针卡产能因需求超过供应而保持满负荷。 本周早些时候已覆盖 CW 激光瓶颈（$AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE），那是另一个有趣的点。 - 据 Nichidenbo 称，部分 MLCC/组件交货期已达36周。 你的三星电机、太阳诱电、村田等玩家听到这个消息应该很高兴。 TLDR: AI 供应链疯狂加速(go brrr)。
英文原文
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
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内存大厂2027产能售罄，反驳供过于求论调。
SK海力士、$MU 和三星已售罄2027年的DRAM/HBM产能。 $SNDK、三星、美光当前的年度NAND产能已售罄，铠侠和SK海力士预计将于2026年8月前敲定分配方案。 - 客户仅能获得其初始请求量60-70%的配额 - 业内人士指出，2027年将迎来最严重的内存短缺时刻 - 分配数量已基本确定，但最终交货价格将在临近交付时确定 来源：Digitimes，引用行业消息。 当产能早已售罄时，很难看到那些关于2027年早中期内存“供过于求”的说法。
英文原文
SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM. $SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026. - Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested - industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage - Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources. Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.
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博主认为AI需求加速信号明确，短期波动属去杠杆，看好光互连及存储板块。
我个人认为这是极短期的去杠杆行为，导致许多个股超跌。 - $BE 和 $TER 公布了超预期的业绩，Bloom 报告营收同比增长 166% + 利润率扩张 + 上调 2026 年指引... Teradyne 报告营收同比增长 104%，每股收益增长 300%+。 - 中国领先的光学玩家公布了惊人的初步财报，对西方光子学板块有极强的映射效应。 - 我认为财报季倾向于提醒市场 AI 加速仍在继续。我预计 $LITE、$SNDK / SK Hynix 以及板块龙头 ERs 将继续这一趋势。 - 但感觉市场更多是在奖励现有的加速，而非基于短期修正（如 $AMKR 所见）的未来一年增长。 - 总之，对我跟踪的主题来说看起来非常积极。 - 然后你有 $GOOGL 资本支出上调至 1950-2050 亿美元，这通常是超大规模云厂商最大的 AI 需求信号。 - 预测市场显示下次 FOMC 会议利率不变的概率为 77%。特朗普政府周一呼吁美联储降息。 - 所以今年三次加息的恐惧似乎有些夸大。 - 从 DUV 到 $CXMT 产能过剩的中国恐惧也被极度夸大。我们在每个行业都见过这种情况，直到人们记住激光或 HBM 瓶颈存在是有原因的。 - 就个人想法而言，看到所有东西一起涨跌是不健康的，尤其是这些主题。但我个人并不担心，因为我对我的持仓有充分信心，特别是像 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 这样的光互连领域。 - $META 计算和 $GOOGL GCP 利润率/增长显示出对 $NBIS 及类似新云业务模式的需求增加。 - $META 及其他超大规模云厂商关于与 $SNDK 和三星/SK Hynix、$MU 的长期协议（LTAs）的笔记指向结构性内存需求。 - 可以一直列举下去... - 但当 Jim Cramer 告诉每个保证金交易员在开盘时“全部卖出”，而新闻说存在 AI 泡沫时。 - 我讨厌别人说“它在跌所以卖出”。我相信重要的是看加速的营收/每股收益增长。如果营收加速与超大规模云厂商资本支出保持一致，那么该逻辑依然成立。 - 总之：我看到了 AI 需求/营收加速的迹象，超大规模云厂商资本支出是最重要的跟踪指标之一。 - 我猜我们会看到该主题广泛复苏。但我无法预测具体发生在哪一小时、哪一天或哪一周。
英文原文
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈与涨价，AMD光互连及存储需求强劲。
一些新闻摘要(TLDR)： - 如果你看好中国存储，$CXMT 明天 IPO。 - 三星电子据报在获取大型 FC-BGA 基板方面遇到困难。伊比登(4062)据报要求长期协议(LTA)担保，三星电机寻求预付款。 - 三星 + $AVGO 签署至 2030 年的存储 + 代工 AI 框架，预计超过 2000 亿美元。 - $SOI 预计 2027 财年硅光子学收入将比上一年翻倍，超越摩根士丹利 60% 的增长预测。光子学逻辑起飞。 - SK 集团 + $NVDA 签署 5000 亿美元+ 合作伙伴关系，建设 AI 数据中心和 HBM4 内存。 - 据报 SKC Absolics 玻璃芯延迟至 2027 年。目标年底完成最终可靠性测试，明年量产。所以如果你好奇，这确实推迟了 $LPK 和其他人的爬坡（因此财报后下跌）。 - $QCOM 智能手机处理器价格因上游供应商涨价而两位数上涨。 - $META 预计发行 120 亿美元项目级/SPV 融资用于德克萨斯州埃尔帕索 AI 数据中心扩建。 - Naver 宣布 $NVDA 和 Brookfield 投资 100 亿美元建设 1GW 级 AI 工厂。近期计划是 2028 年达到 200MW。（英伟达投资 10 亿美元，Brookfield 非约束性 90 亿美元） - 64GB DDR5 服务器模块较 6 月底合约价上涨 146% - $INTC 将 14A 工艺量产提前一年，2027 年下半年风险生产，2028 年量产，相比此前 2029 年 HVM 预期。 - 三星电机赢得 2 亿美元 MLCC 订单（现有瓶颈）。 - $AMD（班达纳瓶颈），宣布 Helios 全面生产，2026 年 Q3 出货。包括与 Anthropic 部署高达 2GW 的 MI455X GPU 和与 OpenAI 的 6GW 基础设施。给出新的 >50% CAGR TAM，从 2025 年的 260 亿美元增至 2030 年的 2200 亿美元 CPU 市场。 - 2027 年为 Mi500 推出光互连。据渠道检查，AMD 正走向 CPO 路线（似乎很可能使用 Ayar）。 - $ORCL 赢得 70 亿美元国防部企业软件合同 - JX 金属将其韩国子公司半导体目标产能翻倍，投资 40 亿日元，2027 年下半年开始运营，应对三星电子和 SK 海力士等主要客户需求激增 - 钨六氟化物现货价格同比飙升 2.1-2.5 倍，继日本关东电化和中央气体宣布永久停产之后。随着 3M 计划退出 PFAS 生产，氟化液体供应面临真空。 - 从四家光芯片制造商财报来看，源杰/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/东山精密：无重大订单削减，1.6T 出货预计加速进入 2027 年。光芯片供应商预计将从短缺中获取超额利润。 - 宇树科技目标 2026 年人形机器人产能 30,000 台。阅读人形 TAM 像 $CCXI 等一样扩展。 - 储能锂电池订单上半年在中国增加 2900%。不太熟悉 EVE Energy 和其他电池制造商。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
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质疑市场客观性，建议直接参考英伟达声明而非过度解读。
@j1nv3st 不妨说，我认为市场不再视它们为客观。人们倾向于发布过度延伸的主张，而忽略了细微的技术细节。比如几个月前关于 $MU 在 $NVDA 的 HBM4 共封装光学(CPO) 供应链中毫无份额的说法。我个人只是直接听取 $NVDA 的声明，
英文原文
@j1nv3st Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore. There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back. I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and
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指出HBM相关热压键合设备竞争开始升温。
看起来 HBF（存储）大战正在打响： - Hanmi Semiconductor（先发者） - Hanwha Semiconductor（先发者） - ASMPT（进入者） - K&S（进入者） 这些在报告中都有提到，其中 Hanmi 领先。 “如果有人想研究这个细分领域，TC bonders（热压键合设备）预计会立即受益。”
英文原文
Looks like HBF (memory) wars are kicking off: - Hanmi Semiconductor (first mover) - Hanwha Semiconductor (first mover) -ASMPT (entry) - K&S (entry) Flagged in reports, with Hanmi leading. “TC bonders are expected to benefit immediately” if people wanna research that segment. https://t.co/so1qyyBG2d
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列出2026下半年四大做多主题：CPO、800VDC功率半导体、物理AI机器人、玻璃基板/先进封装。
如果你想找多头想法，2026年下半年有四个关键主题： 1. CPO，我最喜欢的主题，没有之一。我无法强调市场对它有多误解。 我在硅谷聊过的每个人现在都在私下资助光学初创公司，这是未来的重大信号。 2. 800VDC 功率半导体。我认为其他分析师某种程度上说服了我。 我曾小仓位持有 $NVTS，但令我惊讶的是它几乎翻倍了。进一步研究后，这在“哪些玩家变重要”上是一次相当剧烈的转变。 3. 物理 AI、人形机器人/机器人。你知道 $VPG 基本涨了三倍，我一直在找其他可做多玩家。 最有意思的下游多在私营部门，然后零部件主要在中国/日本。 4. 也许玻璃基板/先进封装仍然有机会，例如 $LPK。由于很多存储玩家最近已经重估，存储在列表中往后排了，不过小众 HBM4 玩家仍有很多机会。
英文原文
Four critical themes for h2 2026 if you want long ideas: 1. CPO, #1 #1 #1 #1 favorite theme. I cannot stress how much markets misunderstand this. Everyone I've talked in SV are privately funding optical startups right now and it's a big signal of what's to come. 2. 800 VDC power semis. I think other analysts kinda convinced me on this. I was in $NVTS for a tiny bit, low concentration. But this almost doubled to my surprise. But after doing more research, it's a pretty seismic shift in terms of what players become important 3. Physical AI Humanoids/Robotics. As you know $VPG basically tripled, and there's a lot of other players I've been trying to find longs on. Most downstream of interest are private sector... Then components are mainly in China/Japan. 4. Maybe Glass Substrate / advanced packaging stuff still eg. $LPK. Memory got pushed down on the list given how much players have re-rated recently, lot of opportunity still with niche hbm4 players.
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梳理玻璃基板光刻胶、ABF瓶颈和关键矿物供应链。
一些随机笔记： 关于玻璃基板：“YC Chem 据称成为业内首家供应玻璃基板光刻胶的公司”（KR 112290）。 - 目标年底量产，通常量产 + 首发对股价有利。 “目前正与三家以上公司洽谈玻璃基板材料供应”，所以还有更多认证。 “Samyang NC Chem 也在开发玻璃基板光刻胶材料”（482630）。 - 正在送样，明年量产，是另一个玻璃基板名字。 “$NVDA 可能通过长期协议、预付款或战略合作提前锁定高端基板产能，目标是避免 CoWoS 和 HBM 过去出现的供应限制重演。”这与 $TSM COUPE 基板有关。 “Commercial Times 强调，AI GPU、ASIC 和 CPO 需求可能在2027年前触发另一轮高端 ABF 基板短缺。” 所以还有更多基板瓶颈。 另外还有：“中国同意解决美国对稀土和关键矿物短缺的担忧，特别是钇、钪、钕和铟。” 如果你想找多头想法，可以研究钇、钪、钕和铟供应链。 现在一切都在回调，但如果你对更多随机想法感兴趣，这是值得关注的东西。
英文原文
Just some random notes: For glass substrates: "YC Chem has reportedly become the first in the industry to supply photoresists for glass substrates" (KR 112290) - targeting EOY mass production, usually mass production + first to market is good for stock prices. "is currently in discussions with more than three companies regarding the supply of glass substrate materials" so more qualifications. "Samyang NC Chem is also developing photoresist materials for glass substrates" (482630) - Sampling, mass production next year another glass substrate name " $NVDA may seek to secure high-end substrate capacity in advance through long-term agreements, prepayments, or strategic partnerships, aiming to avoid a repeat of the supply constraints previously seen in CoWoS and HBM." This is in relation to $TSM COUPE on Substrate. "As Commercial Times highlights, demand from AI GPUs, ASICs, and CPO could trigger another supply shortage of high-end ABF substrates by 2027." So more substrate bottleneck stuff. Then there's: "China's agreement to address US concerns over rare earth and critical mineral shortages specifically yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium" So good to look into yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium supply chains if you want long ideas. Everything is kinda correcting right now, but just something to keep a lookout for if ur interested in more random ideas.
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Towa财报短期因会计幻象被误读，长期H2布局极好，利润率拐点已至
关于Towa (6315)： 财报非常复杂。我原本的论点（短期）中对当前财报的"Beat"判断是错误的，这是我的失误。 但对于H2 2026来说，这是一个极好的结构性多头布局，而非H1。 TLDR：短期由于算法交易无法理解这些细微差别而看跌，长期非常积极（市场是前瞻性的） 营收 ¥54.36B（同比+1.7%）， 净利润 ¥4.59B（同比-43.4%）。 营业利润 ¥6.91B（同比-22.1%） 新闻标题写着"EPS暴跌-43.4%"或"订单不及预期"，这可能会触发算法交易抛售。 1. 正如你们在美国Towa交易中看到的，"EPS暴跌-43.4%"，算法可能已经根据标题卖出了。 -> 但这是由于去年有一笔一次性"损坏赔偿补偿"支出，以及去年价值13亿日元的一次性股票销售。 -> 此外，"新客户压缩设备的初始成本增加"也导致了本季度盈利能力下降。 所以这是一次会计幻象，并非真正的盈利能力问题+新订单规模化，是一次性的。 然而： 利润率拐点已经到来。这是最重要的信号。 全年营业利润率为12.7%。要使年平均达到12.7%，而Q1-Q3徘徊在10%左右，Q4应该需要达到约18.4%左右？ 这对未来盈利能力来说极其看涨，表明HBM压缩机正在发挥作用，与传统设备相比。 2. 订单"不及预期"： "随着前端工艺产能扩张，预计在2027年3月财年下半财年加速增长。" 这表明 $MU、Sk Hynix和其他公司尚未准备好空间，因为他们仍在建设前端晶圆厂生产线。 但H2，为大幅超预期做好了准备。需求可见度是存在的......只是营收/利润攀升被推迟到H2。 _ Towa前瞻指引预测销售额¥64.0B（同比+17.7%），营业利润¥10.24B（同比+48.0%），这标志着未来将创历史最高盈利能力。 IMO他们还压低了营收指引，因为他们明确表示下半年加速，但没有给出太多预期超预期。 日本公司也倾向于极度保守，他们的股息提高也是一个重要信号。 无论如何，我认为美国抛售可能只是由于负面会计标题+流动性较低。另外，我早了大约4-6个月。 但Towa在H2的布局非常积极。只是不是那种像 $SNDK $AAOI 那样单日10%+的爆发式公司。 TLDR：长期看涨，短期很多细微差别被标题误导了。 只需要再有耐心等待几个月。利润率正在上升，营收/订单被推迟到H2，股息提高，等等。
英文原文
For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.
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发现一个做按摩椅和人形机器人副业的 Nvidia CPO 供应商
今天才知道，居然有一家 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，副业还做按摩椅和美国人形机器人。 Toto 马桶和 HBM 的梗到处都在冒出来。
英文原文
Today I learned there’s a $NVDA CPO supplier that builds massage chairs and US Humanoids on the side. The Toto toilet HBM meme keeps showing up everywhere.
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比较 Auros 和 Towa 的不同风险画像
@2victorspoils 我更喜欢 Auros，因为它们和 SK Hynix / Samsung 的 HBM4 hybrid bonding 路线相关，估值大约 2.8 亿美元。 日本那边的 Towa 就更像是一家无聊但有垄断属性的复利型公司。 这只是我目前发过的其中一些名字，后面我还会分享更多。
英文原文
@2victorspoils I liked Auros for higher upside since they’re part of SK Hynix/Samsung Hbm4 hybrid bonding related roadmaps at ~$280mz Over in Japan, Towa was a bit of a more boring but monopolistic compounder. As the ones I’ve posted about so far. There’s a lot more, I’ll share a few later
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@marv_jones6 第 1 是 CPO，第 2 还是 CPO，第 3 也是 CPO，第 4 是 HBM4，第 5 是玻璃基板。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 #1 CPO #2 CPO #3 CPO #4 HBM4 #5 glass substrates
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回顾只做 photonics 和 memory 时的惊人 YTD
如果你只盯着 photonics + memory，那今年本来会是一个史诗级收益年。 从 $EWY 到 $AAOI 的所有顶级板块长仓都涨了几百个百分点。 我一直说，Photonics + Memory 在主题上是最好的。 现在还有一些细微的架构变化： photonics 这边是 pluggables -> CPO memory 这边是 hbm3e -> hbm4 本质上还是同一对超级周期。 只是上游瓶颈和受益者不一样。
英文原文
Would have been a generational YTD if you focused on photonics + memory anon. Every top sector long from $EWY leaps to $AAOI is up multiple hundreds of percent. I’ve always said Photonics + Memory was the best thematically. Now there’s subtle architecture changes: On photonics: pluggables -> CPO On memory: hbm3e -> hbm4 The same two supercycles. Different upstream bottlenecks and beneficiaries.
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英文原文
@fable_7887 Upstream CPO and HBM4
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Auros是三星/SK海力士供应商，受益于HBM4混合键合计量和薄膜厚度测量两大产品线的量产增长。
所以我确实认为Auros (322310)在韩国是一家市值2.69亿美元、非常有趣的公司。 我从研究中发现，他们是一家相对不知名的三星/SK海力士供应商。 而且他们应该会从HBM4资本支出的混合键合计量(Hybrid Bonding Metrology)中获得高产量增长。 基本上是纯粹专注于两种产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，之前$KLA在红外(IR)计量领域拥有垄断地位。 ---> 现在可能在三星工厂获得资格，下半年产能增长预计。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时也可能获得资格。 关于SK海氨酸的注意事项：我以为会是HBM4e，但显然Trendforce今天报道SK海力士已完成12层混合键合HBM验证，并正在提高量产良率。所以除了三星之外，可能还有一个催化剂。 -> 薄膜厚度测量(Thin-film thickness measurement)。 ---> 现在正在获得资格，与"主要国内芯片制造商"(可能是三星/SK海力士)合作，目标是今年实现批量供应。 免责声明(我持有仓位，不构成投资建议，请自己做尽职调查，这只是我的思考过程) 无论如何，他们在过去十年一直在开发，终于要从多年资格认证中将两种核心产品投入量产，可能是今年下半年。存在风险，例如不进入大批量生产(HVM)，但我个人承担这个风险。 所以我发现这家公司非常有趣，只是想分享一些关于这家公司的想法。
英文原文
So I do think Auros (322310) is very interesting at $269M MC over in Korea. What I've found from research was that they're a relatively unknown Samsung / SK Hynix supplier. And they should high volume ramp from HBM4 capex for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. Note on SK Hynix: I thought it would be HBM4e but apparently Trendforce reported today SK Hynix has completed 12-high hybrid bonding HBM validation and is raising yields for mass production. So maybe there's a catalyst there too aside from Samsung. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (likely Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. Disclosure (I do have positions, NFA, please do your own DD, this is just my thought process) Regardless, they've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two core products from years of qualification likely H2 this year. There are risks involved, such as not proceeding to HVM, but I'm personally taking that risk. So I found this company very interesting, just wanted to publish some thoughts on this company.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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TOWA 或成 HBM4 上游受益者
是啊……我越看越觉得，市值约 13.4 亿美元的 $TOWA / $TOWCF（6315），可能会成为 SK 海力士、三星、$MU 在 HBM4 支出中的一个“捡漏”受益者。 它高度周期化，跟支出周期强相关。 但我们看到存储厂商的资本开支在全面上调。 这倒不是那种能 4 倍涨的标的…… 但我的猜测是，新一轮 HBM4 存储周期开始后，必须的资金流入激增会让它被显著重估。 尽管它在这轮新周期里似乎已经被大多数人忘了，但它在压缩建模流程上有垄断地位。 混合键合虽然只是去掉了一个步骤，但仍然需要 Towa（垄断企业往往会拿到更高溢价）。 我也不觉得这轮周期和上一轮一样，因为最近存储公司赚钱的速度实在太夸张了？ 只是我的想法，但如果我的判断没错……等大家都在建 HBM4 产线时，它应该会在 11 日周一（东京时间）的财报里体现出来？
英文原文
Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend from SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU. It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles. But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers. Not exactly a 4x type play... But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway. And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes. Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums) I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently? Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?
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测试/良率链条普遍利多
我帮你盯着这件事（测试/良率篇）： $VIAV 和 $FORM 的财报：极度看多 这意味着什么？ 像 $ONTO / $CAMT 这样的名字会起飞。再加上 $TOWA（6315），因为有迹象显示存储产量正在激进爬坡。 像 Msscorps / $KEYS 这样的名字也会起飞。 更广泛来看，存储和光学生态的上游良率、测试、验证和检测都会大幅受益。而且如果它们正在扩产，这对 $COHR、$FN、$LITE 等也都是领先指标。 对 $VIAV： -> 4.068 亿美元 vs. 3.93 亿美元（超预期）同比增长 42.8%。 -> 每股收益 0.27 美元 vs. 0.2-0.24 美元 指引为 4.27 亿至 4.37 亿美元，显示加速。 对 $FORM： -> 2.26 亿美元，按年增长 32%，每股收益 0.56 美元 vs. 0.45 美元 -> 毛利率大幅提升到 49%（这说明有定价权）。 -> 指引为每股收益 0.61 美元，中值营收约 2.4 亿美元。 “高带宽存储（HBM）需求创纪录，以及代工和逻辑网络应用更强劲” 基本上就是更小的良率/测试生态整体都在起飞。BRRR。
英文原文
Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition): $VIAV and $FORM earnings: Extremely Bullish So what does this mean? Names like $ONTO / $CAMT go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp. Names like Msscorps / $KEYS should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $COHR, $FN, $LITE, and others if they're ramping up production. For $VIAV: -> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth. -> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24 Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration. For $FORM: -> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45 -> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power). -> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications" Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.
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上游设备商TOWA受益于三大存储厂HBM4资本支出扩张，CPO封装尚未量产需观察ASX等信号，整体由超大规模数据中心资本支出驱动。
$TOWA最大的信号来自SK Hynix、Micron和Samsung，因为这是上游...三大厂商增加了资本支出预测+建设HBM4，所以资本支出确实会流向Towa。 MSSCORP更微妙。这是用于共封装光学(CPO)的，还没到量产的阶段...你可能需要关注$ASX和其他信号。 但它们都主要从超大规模数据中心资本支出作为总的框架来获得推导，今天这个框架基本是看涨的。
英文原文
$TOWA biggest signal is SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung since this is upstream... and the big 3 increased capex projections + building out HMB4 so that capex does flow to Towa. MSSCORP more nuanced. This is for CPO, which is not volume ramped yet... You'd probably want to look at like $ASX and other signals. But they all get derived mainly from hyperscaler capex as an overarching umbrella, which was largely bullish today.
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Win Semi 是 HBM4 量产核心
所以 $SIVE 不负责产能扩张，真正负责量产爬坡的是 Win Semi。 Win 的体量非常大。$AVGO、$LITE、$QCOM、联发科、$MTSI、$NXPI 全都在用他们。 他们也在 $AAPL 和 SpaceX 的供应链里。所以只要你锁定 Win 的产能，超大规模云厂商的量产放量就是可去风险的。
英文原文
So $SIVE doesn't handle capacity scaling, Win Semi does volume ramp. Win is massive. $AVGO, $LITE, $QCOM, Mediatek, $MTSI, $NXPI, all use them. They're in $AAPL, SpaceX supply chains too. So volume scaling for hyperscalers is derisked if you secure allocation and do it through Win.
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所以我就直说了：市值 13.5 亿美元的 Towa（6315）…… 它是 HBM4（压缩成型）上很罕见、活生生的垄断定义。 虽然今年到现在几乎没怎么涨，但像 $MU、SK 海力士、三星这些存储厂商都是他们的客户。而且每一家存储厂商的财报都在指向大幅增加 capex。 就连从 $TSM 的财报也能看出来，所有主要半导体公司都在经历一轮巨额资本开支周期，以满足 AI 需求。 三大存储厂商也都从 HBM3E 和 NAND 里赚得很猛……所以下一轮 capex 周期大概不会像上一轮那样了（意思就是花得会更多）。 像 $ASML 一样，这种东西周期性极强，但我想在未来几个月的 HBM4 capex 爆发里拿到敞口。 我想把这个名字和 $LPK（玻璃核心基板）一起放到大家视野里，因为它们都是功能性垄断。 但我确实觉得现在这个时间点刚刚好，毕竟所有机器供应商都在大幅重估，而它相对还是平的。 这也不算什么新发现，因为之前还有别的分析师和一些随机关注者提过这个名字，但希望我这次把时点抓对了。 （免责声明：我确实持仓，这只是我自己想法的 TLDR，请不要跟单）
英文原文
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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存储链条继续起飞
从 $MU 到 $EWY（SK 海力士、三星）再到 $SNDK，存储相关名字最近都在疯狂起飞。 除了三大厂之外，还有 NAND 或台湾的名字，比如南亚科。 现在也许是看看 Towa（6315）的好时机，用来捕捉 HBM4 上游垄断的 capex 周期？ https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
英文原文
Memory names from $MU to $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung) and $SNDK are going brrrr lately. Aside from the big three, then your NAND or TW names like Nanya. Might be a good time to look at names like Towa (6315) to capture upstream monopoly capex cycles for hbm4? https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
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欧洲和日本的垄断都在起飞
像 $LPK 这种欧洲“垄断”（玻璃核心基板）最近也在一路起飞。 $ALRIB 技术上是双寡头，但也在这条线上……（量子 / MBE） 日本那边也有像 Towa 这种（HBM4 / 压缩成型）我持有的名字。 通常垄断会拿到更高倍数。 我之后会慢慢提到更多，只是得先把它们都找出来。
英文原文
European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE) Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
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CPU 热度盖过了存储
现在市场都在盯着 CPU，差点把存储给忘了。 但……SK 海力士、$MU、三星最近都在提高 capex，而且三星最近还开始了 HBM4 生产。 $TSM 也释放了全行业创纪录 capex 的信号。 但就像 $LPK 在玻璃核心基板上的逻辑一样…… HBM 阵营里其实也有不少结构性垄断，是市场可能忘掉了的，尤其是在日本这些地方。 它们大概率会从当前的 HBM4 capex 周期里受益。 韩国那边，像 Hanmi Semi（KRX: 042700）今天都涨了 27.6%+，所以我猜全球其他公司也很快会跟上。
英文原文
Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory. But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently. $TSM also signaled record capex across the board. But just like $LPK in glass core substrates... There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles. Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).