· 供应链分析

SK海力士与三星氦气供应安全,市场恐慌错判,属买入机会。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

氦气恐慌为 $EWY、KOSPI、台湾和日本制造了引人注目的标题。 这与之前发现韩国巨头安然无恙后的LNG恐慌类似。 然而,底层机制显示,SK海力士和三星等存储厂商(Memory Players)对潜在的氦气中断具有高度免疫力。 SK海力士向路透社发表声明: “已长期确保多元化的供应链和充足的氦气库存。” “因此,公司几乎不可能受到影响。” 三星尚未发表声明,但他们在第四季度财报电话会议中表示: “我们自豪地成为行业内首个开发并部署半导体制造氦气回收系统的公司。” “这使我们能够回收和纯化氦气以供重新部署,每年减少约4.7吨的消耗,并实现约19%的重复使用率。” 三星确认该系统已在生产线上运行,可能保护了其供应链。 当投资者因金永培(Kim Young-bae)关于90%依赖中东进口将导致HBM生产停摆的说法而恐慌时, Volza贸易数据反驳了这一点,但差异可能源于气态与液态氦的分类、转运,或金出于政治效果而夸大其词。 无论如何,这两大韩国巨头似乎已很大程度上确保了其氦气供应链免受中东冲突的影响。 市场抛售的核心盲点在于: 美国不会让其中东冲突阻碍其AI建设。SK海力士和三星正处于这一核心。 美韩技术繁荣协议(US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal)旨在保护先进技术供应链。 尤其是当像SK海力士这样的公司发表明确声明时: 声明公司不可能受氦气影响。 市场正在为氦气/LNG中断的最坏情况定价,但查看这些声明表明这是一个买入机会。

英文原文

The helium panic makes for a compelling headline for $EWY, KOSPI, Taiwan, and Japan. Similar to the LNG panic before finding out the Korean giants were fine. However, the underlying mechanics show the memory players in SK Hynix and Samsung in specific are highly insulated from potential Helium disruption. SK Hynix put out a statement to Reuters: "Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium. "Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected." Samsung have not put out statements yet, but from their Q4 earnings call they stated: "We are proud to be the first in the industry to develop and deploy a helium reuse system for semiconductor manufacturing" This "enables us to recover and purify helium for redeployment, cutting annual consumption by approximately 4.7 tons and achieving a reuse rate of around 19%" Samsung confirmed that this system is already active on production lines and likely protects their supply chain. When investors panic from headlines around structural exposure due to Kim Young-bae's claims about 90% reliance on Middle Eastern imports shutting down HBM production. The Volza trade data contradicts it, but the discrepancy could be gaseous vs. liquid helium categorization, transshipment, or Kim rounding up for political effect. Regardless, it looks like the two large Korean giants have largely secured their Helium supply chain from conflicts in the Middle East. The core point of the selloff markets are missing: United States will not let their AI buildout stall from Middle East Conflicts. SK Hynix and Samsung are in the center of it all. US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal to protect advanced technology supply chains as well. And especially so, when companies like SK Hynix put out definitive statements: Stating there's no chance the company is affected from helium. Markets are pricing in the worst case scenarios for Helium/LNG disruption but looking at the statements suggest it's a buying opportunity.

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