供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1309 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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LITE财报证实CPO 27H2放量，CW激光供需失衡且中国厂商落后。
$LITE 财报电话会要点： - “我们对共封装光学(CPO)规模化部署的时间表可见度已提高。我们确信，2027年下半年我们的超高功率激光芯片需求将强劲增长。” Lumentum 确认其领先客户将于 2027 年下半年启动 CPO 规模化放量。 - “我们最近获得了首个外部光源(ELS)模块订单，将于 2027 年下半年交付。” ELS 行业放量时间表。 - “非平面光学(NPO)机会对我们完全是增量，显著增加了光学市场的总规模(TAM)。” 激光瓶颈俱乐部的 TAM 进一步扩大。 - “我们预计 1.6T 光模块的采用将从财年第一季度开始加速，并持续至 2027 年。” - “即使在连续波(CW)激光领域，我们对自己提价的能力也感到惊讶。” $SIVE 及其他 CW 激光玩家拥有积极的定价权。 - “因此，我们能够获得可观的价格溢价，并预计这种溢价将维持下去，即使这些中国厂商上线。我也提醒人们，我认为一些中国激光供应商目前并未在市场上实际交付，所以当它们抛出那些大数字时，没有追索权。迄今为止，我们在其产出方面尚未看到类似情况。” 中国厂商在激光/产能方面落后于市场预期，得到 $AAOI 和 $LITE 的证实。 - “不幸的是，我们在高功率激光的发货上远远落后。” “需求信号增加，相对于我们的供应能力，我们更加落后。” 超高功率(UHP) CW 激光产能存在极端供需失衡，EML 需求持续失衡。年底发货约 +5000 万美元 -> 1 亿美元+（“三位数季度”），进入 2027 年下半年和 2028 年更大的规模化需求。 - “所以，我认为过去三个月我们真正试图做的是确保更多的衬底供应”（因为供需失衡），“我们从 $AXTI 找到了额外的衬底帮助。他们是伟大的合作伙伴。” 磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈出现。 要点总结： - Lumentum 确认 CPO 2027 年下半年放量，驳斥任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。（一份延迟报告造成了巨大损害，Nvidia、Lumentum 等公司花了数周进行危机公关）。 - CW 激光需求在 2027 年下半年放量。 - 超高功率 CW 激光产能的极端供需失衡让 Lumentum 感到惊讶。 - 超高功率激光拥有极高利润率，并能对 CW 激光产能提价。 - 中国在激光/产能方面进一步落后。 基本上验证了西方 CW 激光玩家的时间表 + 需求/定价。 在主要放量开始之前，CW 激光的稀缺性已经发生……
英文原文
$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs: - "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027" H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer. - "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027" ELS industry ramp timelines - "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM." More TAM for laser chokepoint club - "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027." - "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up" Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players. - "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online. I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output." Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE. - "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers" "The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply." Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,. - "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner." Hello InP substrate bottleneck. TLDR: - Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control). - CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027 - Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum - UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity. - China further behind in the laser/capacity angle. Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players. CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...
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AI产业链各环节财报强劲，需求与订单爆发式增长。
今天AI主题的财报简直疯狂，涉及$CRWV、$SMCI和$LITE。 Coreweave：荒谬的~1040亿美元+积压订单，这还不包括Q3初新增的250亿美元+客户协议。 Neoclouds（如Nebius、Iren等）的计算需求传导效应巨大。 Supermicro：荒谬的650-720亿美元营收指引，新增600亿美元+订单... AI数据中心建设的传导效应极其巨大。 Lumentum：营收从8.08亿 -> 10.1亿 -> 12.5亿美元攀升，运营利润率逐季增长。 光子学玩家一直在疯狂印钞。 简而言之：AI建设的每一层都在疯狂爆发，且体现在财报中。
英文原文
Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
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AAOI产能受限，优先自供激光器，CPO部署短期承压。
@Berlinergy $AAOI：“我们根本无法生产足够的[共封装光学(CPO)激光器]来满足其当前第一代[CPO]部署的需求，因为产能确实不足。我们必须优先确保为自家光模块生产激光器。”这仅适用于早期CPO相关部署的初步解读。
英文原文
@Berlinergy $AAOI: "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" This is just for early CPO related deployment read through.
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博主坦言对采用率细节不熟，难以评估对POET等竞对的影响。
@NicolaRussoIT 我对采用率的具体细节不太熟悉，虽然浏览过 $ANET、$XPO 和 $MSA 的资料（我知道 $MSFT 是最公开表示支持的）……所以很难对 $POET 等其他参与者的影响给出很好的回答。https://t.co/Xi6zrmo5ha
英文原文
@NicolaRussoIT Not as familiar with adoption read through with $ANET XPO MSA (ik $MSFT has been the most openly supportive).. so can't really give a good answer to implications on other players like $POET. https://t.co/Xi6zrmo5ha
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优必选IPO或提振机器人板块，哈默纳科长期受益于人形机器人规模化。
@Yangyftz 在我看来，这似乎是正常的市场波动。我认为优必选(Unitree)的成功IPO可能会在短期内提振整个机器人板块。无论如何，从长期来看，我认为哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive)将受益于人形机器人规模化至百万台级别，从而实现创纪录的营收。
英文原文
@Yangyftz Looks like normal market volatility to me. I think a successful IPO from Unitree might bring up the robotics sector as a whole near-term. Regardless, I see Harmonic Drive long-term to have record revenue numbers coming from humanoid ramp as robots scale up to the millions.
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宇树IPO超额认购8000倍，或带动美国头部人形机器人公司关注。
呃……宇树科技(Unitree)的IPO在散户中超额认购超过8000倍。纯人形机器人公司的需求简直巨大？我个人加入了美国本土的Agility Robotics俱乐部（软银、$NVDA、$AMZN、富士康等），通过$CCXI以25亿美元投前估值参与。我的看法是，宇树科技可能以300亿美元以上（来自IPO前永续债）开盘，可能会在一两周内给领先的美国玩家带来更多关注。无论如何，这种需求简直荒谬。
英文原文
uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors. The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous? I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI. And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two. Regardless that's just absurd demand.
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Riot获Anthropic巨额订单，AMD扩产，数据中心收入拐点预计2027下半年。
哇，$RIOT 宣布与 Anthropic 达成 91 亿美元的交易，潜在合同总额可能达 161 亿美元，期限长达 20 年。 $AMD 也行使了扩大其与 Riot 现有协议的期权。（他们仍有一个 1GW 的园区拥有意向书 (LOI) 等待租户入驻） 就时间线而言，似乎大多数数据中心 (Colo) 股票的收入拐点都将在 2027 年下半年到来？ （例如：Riot 与 Anthropic 的交易目标是在 2027 年 12 月交付首批 96MW，AMD 的 50MW 则在 2027 年 5 月） 看到像 $IREN 等前矿工们“长大成人”挺可爱的。
英文原文
Woah, $RIOT announced a $9.1B deal with Anthropic, with a possible contract extending to $16.1B, over 20Y. $AMD also exercised its option to expand its existing deal with Riot. (And they still have another 1 GW campus they have LOI with for a tenant) In terms of timelines, seem like most of the Colo basket have their revenue inflections hit H2 2027? (Eg. Riot Anthropic deal targets Dec 2027 for first 96 MW, AMD full 50 MW - May 2027) It’s cute to see all the former miners like $IREN and co. grow up.
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光模块供需失衡且产能售罄，预计LITE财报强劲并作为行业风向标。
@00m00oo 我认为从 $AAOI 的财报中我们已经得到了太多关于光模块(Optical Transceivers)需求存在20-40%失衡以及激光器(Lasers)成为瓶颈的暗示。 而且 $POET 在其年度股东大会(AGM)上表示，未来两年三大云厂商的产能已完全售罄。 我通常不做财报涨跌预测，因为那大多时候就像抛硬币一样随机。但我可以说，除非有非常意外的情况，否则大部分定价调整在财报发布前就已经发生。 无论如何，我预计 $LITE 的财报会非常强劲，我主要将其作为其他激光器厂商的参考指标(read-through)。
英文原文
@00m00oo I think we already got too many hints from $AAOI earnings about demand 20-40% imbalance for optical transivers with lasers as a bottleneck. And $POET stating big 3 are completely sold out of capacity next 2 years during their AGM. I don’t give earnings up or down predictions since it’s a coin flip most of the time. But I can say that a lot of pricing happens before earnings, unless there’s something very unexpected. Regardless I expect $LITE earnings to come out really strong, and I primary use it as a read through for your other laser players.
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OCP峰会及财报周催化光模块与机器人板块，Unitree IPO或带动机器人行情。
近期的一些事件： - 明天是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar、Lightmatter、$AMD、$NVDA），你的共封装光学(CPO)概念股正在发布公告/更新。 这应该是某些光模块玩家的催化剂。 - 财报周：$ASTS、$RKLB今天发布（太空），$LITE周二（光子学），$NBIS在本周中段（Neocloud），还有更多。 - Unitree IPO认购今天开启，预计本月上市。 如果开盘良好，应是人形机器人+机器人板块的潜在催化剂，例如 $CCXI。 接下来的一周很有趣。
英文原文
Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
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InP激光器短缺利好SIVE，可套用AAOI产能模型。
我认为现在是重新审视 $SIVE 的时机，其年化产能收入的中位预测约为 4.27 亿美元。 鉴于近期的行业财报： > $AAOI 指出光模块（transceivers）需求存在 20-40% 的失衡（激光器是瓶颈）。 > $MTSI 表示许多“客户因磷化铟（InP）DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急联系我们”（在其他产品线中）。 > 美国提议禁止新的中国光模块（中际旭创/新易盛）。 > AOI 因激光器被分配给光模块，未实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署。 解读是：可以将适用于 $AAOI 的产能-需求吸收模型，同样应用于 Sivers 等其他激光器厂商。 鉴于 InP CW DFB 产能的广泛短缺和需求失衡。
英文原文
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.
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白宫投资关键矿物以加速开发并降低供应链风险。
来了，白宫终于向关键矿物/材料领域投入更多资源。惊人的政策举措，简而言之： - $WWR 获得 2500 万美元（石墨） - $SRL (ASX) 获得 4 亿美元（钪） - $FEAM 获得 800 万美元（硼） - $HREE 获得 480 万美元（磁性稀土） 以上为上市公司。此外还有对 Niron Magnetics 的 1.5 亿美元或对 Standard Bauxite 的 8500 万美元等更多私人投资。 这对美国政府来说简直是零钱，却能带来下游应用的巨大增长。应在资金规模上做得更多以加速开发并降低供应链风险（我不持有上述任何股票，仅支持该政策举措），但这是个很好的公告。
英文原文
There we go, White House finally invests in more breath in critical minerals/materials. Amazing policy move, as a TLDR: - $WWR receives $25M (graphite) - $SRL (ASX) receives $400M (Scandium) - $FEAM receives $8M (Boron) - $HREE receives $4.8M (magnet rare earths) out of the public companies. With more private investments from $150 million into Niron Magnetics or $85 million into Standard Bauxite. It's literally spare change to the US gov, for ENORMOUS amount of downstream applications. More should be done with funding amounts to accelerate development and derisk supply chains (don't own any of the above, just support the policy move), but great announcement.
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激光器及InP衬底未来2-3年或现短缺，CPO扩产加剧瓶颈。
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy 好问题！这是逐年变化的，很难从2026年预测到2030年的短缺，但这绝对是一个结构性的多年需求周期。 我想指出的是，激光器（lasers）在特定领域很可能在未来2-3年面临极端短缺，尤其是在共封装光学(CPO)规模化初期至少如此。 例如，CPO激光器市场所需的产能“比今天大8到10倍”，并补充说：“我认为……完全没影响，因为需求远大于全球产能。” 至于磷化铟(InP)衬底，$AAOI 表示2027年没问题，但由于其关键性希望组建合资企业。 $AXTI 看起来只是逐年倍增产能，具体取决于你问谁。 一些台湾外延片(epiwafer)厂商称InP衬底面临极端短缺，而它们正是激光器厂商的上游。 你的激光器厂商如 $AAOI 和 $MTSI 表示他们没问题。 无论如何，我们看到这转化为 $AXTI 的收入拐点（2027年约1.3亿美元/季度），但我预计鉴于其市场地位，平均售价(ASP)一路上涨。
英文原文
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy Good question! This something year-by-year, can't really predict shortages into 2030 from 2026, but it's definitely a structural multi-year demand cycle. Something that I want to flag is that it looks like lasers in specific would likely have extreme shortages for the next 2-3 years, especially during CPO scale up at the very least. eg. CPO laser market would require capacity "8 to 10x bigger compared to today," and added, "I think… no effect at all because the demand is much bigger than the worldwide capacity." As for InP substrates, $AAOI said they were fine for 2027 calendar year but wanted to form JVs because of likely how critical they are since. $AXTI looked like they were just multiplying capacity year after year and depends on who you ask.. Some of the Taiwan epiwafer players say it's extreme shortages for InP substrates, when they feed into your laser players. Your laser players like $AAOI and $MTSI say they're fine. Regardless, we see that convert into revenue inflection points with AXTI anyway (~$130m/quarter in 2027), but I'm expecting ASP to be hiked along the way given their positioning.
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AAOI财报揭示DSP/TIA瓶颈利好同行，且营收增速惊人。
以下是 $AAOI 财报的一些要点摘要： - 他们也指出了数字信号处理(DSP)和收发器接口放大器(TIA)的瓶颈，这对 $MXL、$SMTC 和 $MTSI 等公司来说是积极的行业利好信号。 - 关于营收增长，他们预计第四季度营收将超过 5 亿美元，这种增长速度简直令人难以置信。 供参考： 第二季度：1.919 亿美元 第三季度：约 2.55 亿-2.9 亿美元 第四季度：5 亿美元以上 到 2027 年中：季度营收年化运行率约 14.1 亿美元 这些光通信玩家强劲的营收爬坡速度总是让我印象深刻。
英文原文
Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.
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Rosenblatt 光通信调研精准，AAOI 财报证实中国 CPO 激光器落后。
我通常喜欢调侃卖方分析师，但 Rosenblatt 对光通信标的的渠道调研（Channel Checks）确实非常出色，他们的报告是我少数愿意讨论的。$AAOI、$LITE、$SIVE 以及激光板块已开始在其预估的时间窗口内恢复。例如，上个月他们提到：“多位空头表示他们可能会在 7 月底和 8 月初平仓”。他们可能误判了 $AMD 会是 $AAOI 的首个共封装光学(CPO) 客户……因为 AAOI 表示他们将缺席第一代 CPO（也许是未来几代？）。但他们关于中国 CPO 激光器定位（例如落后 2-3 年）的许多观点，今天被 AAOI 的财报逐字证实了。
英文原文
I usually make fun of sellside, but Rosenblatt has pretty goated channel checks on optical names, and their reports are one of the few I like talking about. $AAOI, $LITE, $SIVE, and the laser party has started to recover around the est. timing windows. eg. last month: "Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August". They might have missed that they believed $AMD would be $AAOI's first CPO customer... since AAOI said they would be missing from first-gen CPO (maybe future gen?) But lot of their talking points about China CPO laser positioning (eg. 2-3 years behind) got corroborated word-for-word from AAOI earnings today.
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宇树科技拟90亿估值IPO，衍生品隐含市值360亿，对比美国同行定价。
Unitree（宇树科技），中国的人形机器人（Humanoid Robot）龙头，本月将以90亿美元估值（~$9B valuation）上市！（~$62亿最初于3月申报）。衍生品市场（Derivative markets）定价隐含开盘市值为360.4亿美元，约为上市价的4倍。$CCXI / Agility Robotics，美国首家上市的纯人形机器人龙头，也将在第四季度晚些时候上市，上市前估值约25亿美元。看看市场如何对美国与中国的人形机器人龙头进行定价，将很有趣。
英文原文
Unitree, China's humanoid leader, is set to IPO this month at a $9B valuation! (~$6.2B originally per March filing). Derivative markets are pricing open at an implied $36.04B MC, roughly ~4X listing price. $CCXI / Agility Robotics, the first US publicly listed pure play humanoid leader, is also going public later in Q4, at a ~$2.5B pre-money valuation. It will be interesting to see how markets price in America vs. Chinese Humanoid leaders.
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Sivers需向下游拓展以扩大市场，因向下游比向上游更容易。
@homeboyrichie 目前确实如此，因为 Lumilens 拥有直接的超大规模客户和数十亿美元的采购协议。而 $SIVE 是一家上游激光器供应商。Sivers 需要向下游拓展，通过销售光引擎、ELS 或像 $LITE 在并购 Cloud Light 后那样销售完整的光模块，以捕获更大的总可服务市场(TAM)。我的观点是，鉴于合格的激光器供应商数量有限，向下游拓展比向上游更容易。
英文原文
@homeboyrichie For now yes, because Lumilens has a direct hyperscaler customer and multi-billion dollar purchase agreements. While $SIVE is an upstream laser supplier. Sivers needs to work its way downstream to capture more TAM with selling optical engines, ELS, or complete optical transceivers like $LITE did after M&A eg. Cloud Light. My opinion is that it’s easier to move downstream than upstream as you seen with the limited amount of qualified laser suppliers out there.
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Lumilens高估值确认光互连上游POET/SIVE价值，博主加仓POET。
今天早些时候，光互连公司 Lumilens 以 55 亿美元估值“结束隐身模式”，此前已融资 7 亿美元。 正如我之前分享的 $POET / $SIVE LinkedIn OSINT 映射回顾，Lumilens 正在为一家前三超大规模云服务商客户供货。 因此，一个月后我们确认了这一点，并得知 Lumilens 拥有“数十亿美元的客户协议”。 仅供参考，$POET 与 Lumilens 有现有合同（5000 万美元采购订单，最高 5 亿美元）+ 与 $SIVE 的合同（取决于产品线）。 在阅读此新闻后，我再次在 POET 上建立了少量头寸，因为它终于让他们看到了资金极其充裕的超大规模云服务商供应商（加上 Poet 非常庞大的资产负债表）。 但简而言之： > Lumilens 估值与 Lightmatter/Ayar 相当（甚至更高），拥有超大规模云服务商客户，规模比市场预期的要大。 > 对上游 $POET（去风险化）/ $SIVE 的利好传导。 > 对光互连估值整体有利，看到一家公司在 2 年内达到 55 亿美元。
英文原文
Earlier today, optical interconnect company Lumilens "emerges from stealth" at a $5.5B valuation, after raising $700m. Just as a recap from $POET / $SIVE Linkedin OSINT mapping I shared earlier, Lumilens was supplying a top 3 hyperscaler customer. So we got confirmation of that a month later, along with the material figure that Lumilens has a "multi-billion-dollar customer agreement". And just for reference, $POET has existing contracts with Lumilens ($50m purchase order, up to $500m) + contracts with $SIVE (depending on product lines). I actually took tiny positions in POET again after reading this news, since it finally gives them visibility into extremely well funded hyperscaler suppliers (on top of Poet's really large balance sheet). But TLDR: > Lumilens around similar (or even higher) valuations as Lightmatter/Ayar, bigger than markets thought with hyperscaler customers. > nice read through upstream on $POET (derisking) / $SIVE. > Great for optical valuations in general, seeing a company go to $5.5B in 2 years.
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博主兴奋于CPO激光器格局及CW产能瓶颈研究获验证。
@Financewisdom01 我个人真的非常兴奋，因为这些细枝末节的线索验证了我几个月前做的很多研究。关于共封装光学(CPO)激光器玩家格局以及连续波(CW)激光器产能瓶颈。
英文原文
@Financewisdom01 I’m just really excited personally since these little breadcrumbs validated a lot of the research I did months ago. With CPO laser player dynamics and CW laser capacity bottlenecks.
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@pjtesus 这是因为 $AAOI 的 800G/1.6T 光模块（optical transceivers）已经存在巨大的 20-40% 供需失衡…… 他们无法生产足够的产品来满足需求。这是一件好事。 但无法满足所有需求，意味着较小的共封装光学(CPO) 激光器玩家存在市场机会。
英文原文
@pjtesus It's because $AAOI already has a massive 20-40% demand imbalance for their 800G/1.6T optical transceivers... They can't make enough to satisfy demand. That's a positive thing. But not being able to fulfill all demand, means there's market opportunities for smaller CPO laser players.
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AAOI缺席CPO部署揭示产能瓶颈，暗示其他CPO玩家价值被低估。
@00m00oo 我对 $AAOI 极度看好，它是我的核心持仓之一？ 但当 AOI 表示因产能不足而不参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署时，背后有无数问题需要拆解。 1. 独立连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB)产能，比市场预期的更少。 2. 合格的 CPO 激光器玩家，比市场预期的更少。 3. 我记得 Rosenblatt 曾认为 $AAOI 会是 $AMD 的第一个 CPO 客户，但情况可能已变... 而且由于 $LITE 和 $COHR 站在 $NVDA 阵营且未来两年订单已售罄... 其他一些 CPO 玩家可能比人们认为的更有价值。
英文原文
@00m00oo I'm extremely bullish on $AAOI, it's one of my top holdings? But there's an unholy amount of things to unpack when AOI said they're not participating in first-gen CPO deployments because there's not enough capacity. 1. Independent CW DFB capacity, even less than markets thought. 2. Qualified CPO laser players, even less than markets thought. 3. I remember Rosenblatt thought $AAOI would be $AMD's first CPO customer, but might not be the case anymore... And since $LITE and $COHR are in camp $NVDA and sold out for next 2 years... Some other CPO players might be more valuable than others think.
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AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。
哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。
英文原文
Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.
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MTSI财报证实磷化铟DFB激光器短缺，利好SIVE和LITE。
$MTSI 财报电话会议记录： “由于磷化铟分布反馈(DFB)激光器普遍供应短缺，客户正迫切地向我们寻求解决方案。” 重点在于“迫切”、“连续波(CW) DFB激光器”以及“向我们寻求”。 像 $SIVE 和 $LITE 这样的连续波 DFB 概念股，听到这一激光器瓶颈得到验证应该会很高兴。
英文原文
$MTSI earnings transcript: "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us". CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.
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InP激光器产能严重不足，看好新增独立产能标的。
@_king142 $LITE 首席执行官表示，即使其 5 座磷化铟(InP)激光器晶圆厂投产，出货量仍将低于客户需求 30% 以上。（甚至比当前的内存短缺更严重） $AAOI 也表达了类似的观点，缺口在 20-40% 之间。 我猜测 InP 衬底和激光器都将成为 2027 年最严重的瓶颈之一。 这就是为什么我非常看重任何新增的独立产能，无论是 $SIVE 与 Win 的合作还是 $AAOI。
英文原文
@_king142 $LITE CEO said even as their 5 InP laser fabs come online, shipments would be 30%+ below customer demand. (and worse than the current memory shortage) $AAOI said something similiar with a 20-40% figure. My guess is that InP substrates and lasers both will be one of the most severe bottlenecks in 2027. Which is why I place a lot of value on any independent capacity that comes online whether it's $SIVE with Win or $AAOI.
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AAOI财报验证光模块需求远超供应，产能爬坡中，看好板块传导。
以下是关于 $AAOI 财报的简要要点： - 预计超大规模客户将在未来几周内完成 1.6T 产品的全面认证（有助于收入爬坡 #2，时间线） - 继续认为 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心光收发器产能（在竞争对手可能被禁时期重申雄心） - 预计磷化铟(InP)产能设施将于 2027 年初投产（进一步爬坡的时间线参考） - 总产能接近每月 20 万颗/单位，年底 800G/1.6T 达 65 万颗/单位。2027 年底达 93 万颗/单位（这是我想要看到的爬坡） - “增加外部光源(ELSFP)的制造产能。这是用于共封装光学(CPO)的”。我们预计今年晚些时候及 2027 年扩大生产，最终在 2028 年达到每月约 40 万件（需要时间将其建模为收入） - “如前所述，我们多年来一直内部制造激光器。这使我们避免了影响行业其他公司的短缺”（CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合看多逻辑） - 我们相信未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器的需求增加（CPO 板块论点验证） - “长期目标是将非公认会计准则毛利率恢复到 40% 左右” - “第二季度末现金等价物总计 5.088 亿美元” 我需要再次确认 ATM 是否完成 - “我们交付收入的能力，特别是 800G 产品，目前受限于我们的生产能力”“如果我们能生产更多，我们现在就能发货更多” 需求 > 供应验证。 - “大部分增加的产能将在美国。即便如此，让我说，正如我一直强调的，这还不足以应对客户需求。客户需求高出 20%-40%。” 整个板块的光子学需求验证惊人，阅读 $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL 等公司的传导效应令人惊叹。 - “在未来两三年内不会，尤其是需求如此之大。好吧？即使结合 AI，$LITE, $COHR, $AVGO 加在一起，未来几年满足客户需求仍然非常困难” 更多光通信板块需求验证。 - CPO 时间线：“如果你说的是 CPO 市场的高产量制造商，我会说是明年第三季度末左右”以及“我们已与至少五家客户密切合作” 如果你关心当前财报（我并没有仔细看） 营收：1.91 亿美元 vs 1.90 亿美元 每股收益：0.06 美元 vs 0.02 美元 简而言之：激光器 + 光通信板块需求传导非凡。某种程度上支持 Lumentum CEO 关于激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重的说法。 2027 年产能爬坡按计划进行。要映射拐点期与时间线，大约在明年年初，正如他们之前的财报电话会议所述。 AAOI 现在拥有客户。限制在于制造足够的激光器和收发器。
英文原文
Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.
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禁令利好西方光模块厂商，AAOI等1.6T+玩家受益。
@Lseperlee 对我来说，$AAOI 是 2027 年上半年末的放量玩家，因为大约那时他们将达到每月 4.71 亿美元营收预测的拐点。近期起草的禁止英诺赛科(Innolight)等公司新光模块的光模块禁令，增加了 $AAOI、$SIVE/$JBL、$LITE、$COHR 等公司在 1.6T+ 项目上的权重。尤其是如果该禁令在 2026 年最终确定。由于可能会出现价格上涨，且需求将更集中于少数西方玩家产能。
英文原文
@Lseperlee $AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections. Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their 1.6T+ programs as well. Especially if finalized in 2026. Since there's likely going to be price hikes, and more demand concentration over capacity from the select few Western players.
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Aeva切入CPO/NPO光源领域，利好上游激光器供应商Sivers。
本周的意外之事……是 $AEVA 成为共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO) 光源玩家。 背景：$SIVE 被视为向 Aeva（以激光雷达闻名）供应连续波分布反馈(CW DFB) 激光器的高确定性供应商。 今天，Aeva 盘后大涨 18.26%，回应了与一家光学引擎厂商签署联合开发协议(JDA) 的消息，该协议将在 2027 年下半年部署于某大型超大规模数据中心，并于 2028 年量产爬坡。 “光互联将利用这一基础，结合 Aeva 现有的大规模制造和晶圆代工供应链”用于： - ELSFP（类似 O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE），Sivers 可能是 CW 激光器及潜在放大器供应商 - 片上集成光源（架构/集成方面可能是 $SIVE DFB + Aeva PIC） 简而言之：Aeva 在 CPO/NPO 领域获得新总可服务市场(TAM) 和超大规模数据中心项目，对 $SIVE 等上游供应商构成利好传导。
英文原文
The unexpected thing of the week... Was $AEVA becoming a CPO/NPO optical source player. For background: $SIVE is viewed as the high confidence CW DFB laser supplier to Aeva (which is known for lidar). Today, Aeva reacted with +18.26% AH on news that they signed a JDA with an optical engine player for deployment at a major hyperscaler in H2 2027, production ramp 2028. "Optical Connectivity will leverage that foundation along with Aeva’s EXISTING high-volume manufacturing and foundry supply chain" for: - ELSFP (similar to O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE), with Sivers as the likely CW laser + potential amplifier supplier - On-chip integrated light source (likely $SIVE DFB + Aeva PIC on the architecture/integration side) TLDR: New TAM and a hyperscaler programs for Aeva for CPO/NPO, positive read through for upstream suppliers like $SIVE.
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VIAV 澄清 CPO 无延迟，测试收入已落地，时间表符合预期。
今年最有趣的辟谣来自 $VIAV 关于共封装光学(CPO) 时间表的言论： “嗯，业界有很多关于延迟的讨论，比如‘哦，因为良率会较慢’。 那都是胡扯。CPO 和所有相关事物都在推进。” 他们表示，虽然始终存在问题，但流程正在改善，情况正在好转。 对此补充，CEO 表示： - Viavi 拥有 CPO 测试活动的采购订单(PO) - “我们本季度已经开始获得 [CPO 收入]，可能 12 月会开始加速。” 顺便一提，他们还表示 1.6T 正在“快速爬坡”，明年应与 800G 持平，并暗示 800G 需求有更长的尾部效应。 简而言之：看到 CPO 测试收入正从 $VIAV 流向 $FORM 等公司。英伟达(Nvidia) 也表示用于扩展的交换机侧 CPO 已提前进入量产。 至于垂直扩展(scale up) 时间表，部分厂商的早期生产应在 2027 年下半年，而其他 CPO 厂商 Ayar 表示 2028 年是放量拐点。 基本上，所有时间表似乎与之前相同，收入正开始首先惠及测试厂商。
英文原文
Funniest callout of the year from $VIAV on CPO timelines: "Well, there's been a lot of industry talk [about delays], like, 'Oh, because the yield is going to be slower.' That's all nonsense. CPO and all that thing is moving forward" They stated that Yes there's always issues, but the process is being improved and things are getting better. To follow up on that, the CEO stated: - Viavi has POs for CPO-testing activity - “We’re already getting [CPO revenue] this quarter, and probably in December it will start accelerating.” On a side note, they also stated, 1.6T is "ramping very quickly", should reach parity with 800g next year, and signaled longer tail for 800g demand. TLDR: Seeing CPO test revenues hit for $VIAV to $FORM around now. Nvidia also stated switch-side CPO for scale out and scale across has entered mass production earlier. As for scale up timelines, early production should be H2 2027 for some players, with other CPO players Ayar stating 2028 is the volume inflection period. Basically, all the timelines seem to be the same as before and revenue is starting to hit testing players first.
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OE Solutions 研发垂直整合 1.6T 光模块，但处于早期阶段。
@NoKorea_YesUSA OE Solutions 正在开发具有内部 EML/CW 技术的垂直整合 1.6T 光收发器(1.6T Optical Transceivers)。但与其他公司相比，它仍处于早期阶段。
英文原文
@NoKorea_YesUSA OE Solutions is developing vertically integrated 1.6T optical transceivers with in-house EML/CW. But its early stage compared to the others.
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特朗普拟禁中国光模块，利好西方供应链分化。
西方供应链迎来了一个非常实质性的催化剂，涉及 $AAOI、$SIVE/Jabil、$LITE 和 Coherent：特朗普政府正在起草一项禁令，禁止新的中国光模块(Optical Transceivers)和直流(DC)设备。这可能会打击中国的中际旭创(Innolight)、新易盛(Eoptolink)以及其他中国光互连(Optical Interconnect)供应链。“该机构将禁止所有新型光模块的进口，然后豁免许多非中国供应商的限制。”我们可能会看到供应链出现更大的分化，西方玩家的重要性将进一步提升。
英文原文
A very material catalyst came about for Western supply chains from $AAOI, $SIVE / Jabil, to $LITE and Coherent: The Trump administration is drafting a ban of new Chinese optical transceivers and DC devices. Which would likely hit China’s Innolight, Eoptolink, and other Chinese optical interconnect supply chains. "The agency would ban all imports of new transceiver models and then exempt many non-Chinese suppliers from the restrictions" We'll likely see a larger bifurcation of supply chains with even greater importance put on Western players.
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内存大厂2027产能售罄，反驳供过于求论调。
SK海力士、$MU 和三星已售罄2027年的DRAM/HBM产能。 $SNDK、三星、美光当前的年度NAND产能已售罄，铠侠和SK海力士预计将于2026年8月前敲定分配方案。 - 客户仅能获得其初始请求量60-70%的配额 - 业内人士指出，2027年将迎来最严重的内存短缺时刻 - 分配数量已基本确定，但最终交货价格将在临近交付时确定 来源：Digitimes，引用行业消息。 当产能早已售罄时，很难看到那些关于2027年早中期内存“供过于求”的说法。
英文原文
SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM. $SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026. - Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested - industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage - Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources. Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.