供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1309 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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博主澄清CPO延迟谣言，认为亚洲股错杀，看好MSSCorp及早期受益股。
@Erick_P23 核心逻辑更偏向于共封装光学(CPO)的规模化，预计其复杂性将使MSSCorp成为检测良率方面的垄断型瓶颈（他们声称目标市场份额为90%）。尽管这些技术也可用于其他领域。 $FORM 的产能爬坡早了很多，所以下次财报中营收可能会开始显现？ 无论如何，亚洲概念股因CPO时间表延迟的报道而大幅抛售，但我通过$AMD 大会上的渠道核实发现该报道不实。 我认为我的观点没有改变，更多的是在等待2027年。 像Shunsin这样拥有更多确认的规模化交换机出货量，以及像 $AAOI / $SIVE 这样的激光概念股，其产能爬坡要早得多。在我看来，这只是时间线的问题，以及市场何时愿意对此进行定价。
英文原文
@Erick_P23 Thesis is more for CPO scale up expecting complexity making make MSSCorp a monopoly-type chokepoint over inspection yields (they were claiming 90% market share target). Although they can be used for other segments. $FORM ramped a lot earlier, so maybe will revenue would start to appear in next earnings? Regardless, Asian names sold off extremely hard on CPO timeline delay report that I found to be incorrect with my channel checks at the $AMD conference. Don't think my views have changed, it's moreso waiting for 2027. Names with more confirmed scale-out switch volumes like Shunsin + laser names like $AAOI / $SIVE ramp a lot earlier. It's just timelines in my view and when markets want to price that in.
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博主转向关注上游瓶颈，预计能源和新云将因算力短缺跑赢。
@Schulz_Research 态势感知/Leopold 关于美国向推理(推理)和巨大能源需求转移的观点完全正确。我在2025年曾对 $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 等新型云服务商(新云)持有类似论点。但我个人更转向关注上游瓶颈(上游瓶颈)和网络(网络)。不幸的是，基金未能完全熬过回撤。我们在内存集中度(内存集中度)上有重叠，但鉴于算力/容量短缺，我预计来自 $BE、$TE 的能源/电网或如 $SHAZ/$IREN 的新云将跑赢大盘。
英文原文
@Schulz_Research Situational Awareness / Leopold was completely right in terms of US shifting more toward inference + large energy demand. I had a similar thesis with Neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, and others last year in 2025. But shifted more towards upstream bottlenecks + networking personally. It's just a little unfortunate the fund couldn't fully survive the drawdown. We did overlap in memory concentration but energy/grid from $BE, $TE, or neoclouds like $SHAZ / $IREN but I'd expect them to outperform given compute/capacity shortages.
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四大云厂商上调Capex指引，看好上游半导体及AI供应链瓶颈环节重估。
作为业绩复盘：$AMZN、$META、$GOOGL 和 $MSFT 将 2026 年联合资本支出(Capex)指引上调至约 7200-7450 亿美元。此前指引为 6950-7250 亿美元。亚马逊：2200 亿；谷歌：1950-2050 亿；Meta：1300-1450 亿；微软：1750 亿。我们已看到显著的降杠杆和零售/机构保证金清算（可能还会持续，谁知道呢）。但中长期来看，我不太明白为何有人看空上游半导体或新云厂商。鉴于每家超大规模云服务商都指出了算力短缺、云需求上升+定价权增强，或增加芯片/网络支出。我对许多上游半导体供应链的“瓶颈”论点是：当数万亿美元资本流入磷化铟(InP)衬底或存储（此前均被视为廉价大宗商品）甚至能源领域时。许多此前在电信周期中被视为无用甚至“卖马桶”的当前 AI 概念股。当拐点到来且资本支出流入其资产负债表时，估值将重估。正如过去几年 $NVDA GPU、今年存储、未来几年 CPU/MLCC、2027 年共封装光学(CPO)、2027 年玻璃衬底、2027 年 800V 等所见。
英文原文
As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.
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反驳媒体看空AI，指出巨头需求旺盛且韩国半导体大涨。
本周要点速览： 媒体：超大规模云厂商建设过剩，正在抛售多余算力。 -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, 和 $AMZN：算力需求远超产能。资本支出(Capex)持续飙升。 机构：紧急加息或三次加息，行情就此终结。 -> Kevin Warsh：不会加息。 散户/媒体：AI因是泡沫而崩盘。 -> 城堡证券(Citadel)正寻求买入AI杠杆对冲基金头寸：👀 Jim Cramer：清仓所有杠杆型数据中心(DC)股票。 -> 韩国市场：SK海力士(SK Hynix) +30%，三星(Samsung) +26.81%
英文原文
Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble. -> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀 Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks. -> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%
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POET与Sivers合作加速，2027H1订单落地，验证CPO等新技术拐点临近。
仔细想想，$POET 的光学中介层（optical interposer）业务与 $SIVE 的关联比我想象的更重要。起初措辞是2026年底的“准备就绪”，但 $POET 将其升级为与 Sivers 激光器合作的“量产”，预计2026年底实现。因此，从 $JBL 到 $POET 的批量订单应在2027年上半年落地。这很合理，因为 Sivers 已完成超认购的机构轮融资以支持未来大规模生产。顺便一提，难以置信已是八月，距2027年仅剩5个月……这是我预判玻璃基板、共封装光学(CPO)、800V 及新架构开始放量的拐点窗口。
英文原文
Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production. On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.
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POET光学中介层进展升级，Sivers从准备就绪迈向2026年底量产。
@A22GEO $POET 的光学中介层（optical interposer）部分其实是一个非常有趣的更新，并谈到了 $SIVE。因为对于 Sivers 和 Poet 来说，这是关于 2026 年底“生产”（production）的时间表措辞升级。回想 Sivers 发布新闻稿时，用的词是“生产准备就绪”（production readiness）。
英文原文
@A22GEO The $POET optical interposer piece is actually a very interesting update and talks about $SIVE. Since it's a material timeline upgrade wording for "production" EOY 2026, for Sivers + Poet. Back when Sivers did their PR it was "production readiness" https://t.co/EHkOogR39K
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FORM财报显示CPO业务加速，处于早期爆发前夜，看好硅光子产业链。
以下是 $FORM 财报电话会议中关于共封装光学(CPO)的一些有趣要点： 由于“共封装光学(CPO)的加速增长”，系统收入几乎翻倍。 2026年Q1：“我们现在预计2026年CPO收入将达到1000万至2000万美元区间的高位。” 2026年Q2（当前）：“预计第三季度末将超过该区间，全年整体将显著超过2000万美元水平。” 管理层表示：“我们看到这项[CPO]业务正在显著加速。” 问：CPO采用前景。我们是否预期时间表会略微提前？ 答：“我想说的是短期内确实有加速。”但管理层表示时间表没有显著提前。 引用生产基础设施（不仅是研发）用于： - 今年晚些计划量产的CPO芯片日益增长的出货量 + 用于扩展和扩展交换机的测试插入。 - 似乎CPO部分通过 $TSM 的 COUPE 流程 [可能对应 $NVDA 的CPO产品] - “CPO部分确实通过那10%的客户流向。” 因此，鉴于管理层提到CPO芯片出货量增长，测试环节正在爬坡。 “我们CPO业务的近期快速增长令人兴奋，我们认为这代表了硅光子技术在更广泛半导体行业中广泛采用的非常早期阶段。” 简而言之：从根本上说，CPO作为一个主题仍处于非常早期阶段，但由于它现在开始出现在财报中，应该很快就会爆发（设备/测试玩家通常会在光引擎/激光器出货量爬坡之前先出现）。 个人而言，一旦所有去杠杆过程停止，我认为市场将开始更加关注这一点。
英文原文
Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.
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质疑超大规模云厂商算力短缺说法，认为新云已锁定GW级容量。
@og_mcleod 抛售新云厂商，尽管它们已锁定GW级算力容量…… 如果超大规模云服务商整体存在算力短缺，这对我来说将是一个谜。
英文原文
@og_mcleod Selling off neoclouds, that has secured GW-scale compute capacity... While there's hyperscaler-wide compute shortages will be an engima to me.
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超大规模云厂商资本支出强劲，计算资源稀缺，AI抛售被夸大。
以下是来自 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会议的一些要点： 微软： - 尽管资本支出增加，预计2027年将实现自由现金流(FCF)转正（这对由运营收入资助的AI建设极为有利） - “自由现金流为196亿美元，反映了更高的资本支出” - 季度资本支出为410亿美元，其中约2/3为“短期资产，主要是CPU和GPU” - 预计下一季度资本支出将超过500亿美元 - 资本支出指引约为1750亿美元，2027年资本支出大致相同。支出计划不变且符合预期。 - “将数据中心的预计使用寿命从15年延长至25年” - “我们将成为首批部署基于 $AMD Helios 和 $NVDA Vera Rubin 的下一代机架级AI基础设施的云提供商之一” - “客户需求持续超过可用容量” Meta： - 资本支出1300-1450亿美元（范围收窄），此前为1250-1450亿美元。 - Meta 收到的报价比其支付价格有“显著溢价”（计算资源稀缺，对 $IREN / $NBIS 等新云厂商有利） - 预计大部分计算资源（如埃尔帕索的1GW数据中心）将用于开发内部模型。 - Meta 在其核心业务中有多个投资回报率(ROI)为正的额外计算用途（内部使用，非Meta Compute） - “最后，我们认为整体行业产能将在可预见的未来保持紧张” - “历史上行业对AI采用浪潮的建设不足，使得现有产能，包括我们自己的，极具价值” - Susan Li 总结： - $MSFT 和 $GOOGL 主要在保持自由现金流为正或通过运营收入的同时，维持AI资本支出建设。 - $META 指出可用计算资源至少到2027年都远低于需求。$MSFT 也指出计算需求远超供应。 - 三大超大规模云服务商的资本支出基本与Google上调资本支出数字一致。 现在的AI抛售似乎被极度夸大了，超大规模云服务商继续按预期进行资本支出（微软保持自由现金流为正）甚至像 $GOOGL 那样上调。 计算资源稀缺在所有超大规模云服务商的财报电话会议中可见。
英文原文
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
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AXTI获两大光学巨头巨额产能预留订单，信号积极。
@wz2013 $AXTI 此前已与 $COHR 签订长期协议(LTA)，并支付了 2230 万美元的预留金。今天又与 $LITE 签订了 LTA，总计 8700 万美元（4350 万 + 4350 万）再次用于预留产能。考虑到这两家都是领先的光学玩家，这似乎是积极的信号。合同定价等具体细节尚不清楚，我们将拭目以待。
英文原文
@wz2013 $AXTI secured LTA with $COHR earlier, with a $22.3M reservation payment. As well as a LTA with $LITE today, totaling $87M ($43.5M + $43.5M) again to reserve capacity. Considering that these are both of the two leading optical players, seems positive. The actual details such as pricing of the contracts aren't known, so we'll find out more.
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AXTI与Lumentum签InP衬底长协，Lumentum付4350万定金预留产能。
$AXTI 与 $LITE 就磷化铟(InP)衬底签署长期协议。Lumentum 同意支付 4350 万美元定金以预留产能。https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
英文原文
$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity. https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
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美政府入股GFS推CPO，利好西方供应链玩家。
@Yeshuaisking11 对于关键矿产，我原本就预料到西方需要尽可能多的补贴来与中国竞争。 美国政府入股 $GFS 以支持共封装光学(CPO)并不在我的预期之内。但这确实表明 CPO 已成为算力供应链的优先事项，且他们已将格芯(Globalfoundries)打造为本土冠军。 我认为这对所有参与美国 CPO 供应链的西方玩家如 $LITE / $SIVE 都是利好。但对世界其他地区的相关企业则不然。
英文原文
@Yeshuaisking11 I kinda expected it for critical minerals since Western needs as much subsidies as possible to compete with China. US Gov taking a stake in $GFS for CPO was not on my calendar. But it does go to show CPO becoming a compute supply chain priority and they made Globalfoundries a domestic champion. Which my thoughts are that it's positive for all the Western players this US CPO supply chains like $LITE / $SIVE. Not so much for other parts of the world.
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美政府注资GFS加速CPO研发，利好硅光子供应链标的SIVE和LITE。
美国政府将持有 $GFS 1% 的股份，并授予其 3 亿美元用于美国《芯片法案》(CHIPS ACT)。 鉴于该《芯片法案》专门旨在推进共封装光学(CPO) + 硅光子技术(Silicon Photonics)，这实际上是对 $SIVE / $LITE 的强烈利好映射(read through)。 （参考：Sivers 和 Lumentum 是 GFS 演示文稿中提到的唯二两家公开激光供应商。Sivers 激光阵列最近被指定为 Globalfoundries SCALE 用于 CPO 的参考设计。） 根据美国政府公告：“GlobalFoundries 将获得高达 3 亿美元，以将国内 CPO 研发加速两到三年”（NIST） 从未想过我们会看到美国政府 / $INTC 晶圆代工模式在特定 CPO 领域的应用...
英文原文
US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...
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英伟达拟担保OpenAI融资，博主质疑循环融资健康度但看好资本支出受益者。
英伟达正在洽谈为 OpenAI 的数据中心融资提供高达 2500 亿美元的担保。 - 软银旗下的 SB Energy 开发俄亥俄州 10GW 园区 - OpenAI 签署长期租赁协议 - $NVDA 担保 2500 亿美元融资 - OpenAI 正在讨论单独协议，购买高达 3500 亿美元的英伟达芯片。 不太确定这种循环融资长期来看是否健康，但鉴于 AI 基础设施支出的巨大规模…… 感觉资本支出受益者会非常高兴。
英文原文
Nvidia in talks to backstop $250B worth of OpenAI DC financing. - Softbank’s SB energy develops 10 GW Ohio campus - OpenAI signs long term lease - $NVDA guarantees $250B in financing - OpenAI discussing separate agreement to buy up to $350B in Nvidia chips. Not quite sure if this circular financing is healthy long term, but given the massive size of AI infrastructure spending… Feels like capex beneficiaries will be extremely happy.
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈与涨价，AMD光互连及存储需求强劲。
一些新闻摘要(TLDR)： - 如果你看好中国存储，$CXMT 明天 IPO。 - 三星电子据报在获取大型 FC-BGA 基板方面遇到困难。伊比登(4062)据报要求长期协议(LTA)担保，三星电机寻求预付款。 - 三星 + $AVGO 签署至 2030 年的存储 + 代工 AI 框架，预计超过 2000 亿美元。 - $SOI 预计 2027 财年硅光子学收入将比上一年翻倍，超越摩根士丹利 60% 的增长预测。光子学逻辑起飞。 - SK 集团 + $NVDA 签署 5000 亿美元+ 合作伙伴关系，建设 AI 数据中心和 HBM4 内存。 - 据报 SKC Absolics 玻璃芯延迟至 2027 年。目标年底完成最终可靠性测试，明年量产。所以如果你好奇，这确实推迟了 $LPK 和其他人的爬坡（因此财报后下跌）。 - $QCOM 智能手机处理器价格因上游供应商涨价而两位数上涨。 - $META 预计发行 120 亿美元项目级/SPV 融资用于德克萨斯州埃尔帕索 AI 数据中心扩建。 - Naver 宣布 $NVDA 和 Brookfield 投资 100 亿美元建设 1GW 级 AI 工厂。近期计划是 2028 年达到 200MW。（英伟达投资 10 亿美元，Brookfield 非约束性 90 亿美元） - 64GB DDR5 服务器模块较 6 月底合约价上涨 146% - $INTC 将 14A 工艺量产提前一年，2027 年下半年风险生产，2028 年量产，相比此前 2029 年 HVM 预期。 - 三星电机赢得 2 亿美元 MLCC 订单（现有瓶颈）。 - $AMD（班达纳瓶颈），宣布 Helios 全面生产，2026 年 Q3 出货。包括与 Anthropic 部署高达 2GW 的 MI455X GPU 和与 OpenAI 的 6GW 基础设施。给出新的 >50% CAGR TAM，从 2025 年的 260 亿美元增至 2030 年的 2200 亿美元 CPU 市场。 - 2027 年为 Mi500 推出光互连。据渠道检查，AMD 正走向 CPO 路线（似乎很可能使用 Ayar）。 - $ORCL 赢得 70 亿美元国防部企业软件合同 - JX 金属将其韩国子公司半导体目标产能翻倍，投资 40 亿日元，2027 年下半年开始运营，应对三星电子和 SK 海力士等主要客户需求激增 - 钨六氟化物现货价格同比飙升 2.1-2.5 倍，继日本关东电化和中央气体宣布永久停产之后。随着 3M 计划退出 PFAS 生产，氟化液体供应面临真空。 - 从四家光芯片制造商财报来看，源杰/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/东山精密：无重大订单削减，1.6T 出货预计加速进入 2027 年。光芯片供应商预计将从短缺中获取超额利润。 - 宇树科技目标 2026 年人形机器人产能 30,000 台。阅读人形 TAM 像 $CCXI 等一样扩展。 - 储能锂电池订单上半年在中国增加 2900%。不太熟悉 EVE Energy 和其他电池制造商。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
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澄清AMD是AAOI首批CPO客户，并指出LITE/COHR/SIVE为CPO激光器核心标的。
@Thomus0x 呃，Rosenblatt 6月30日的研报指出 AMD 是 $AAOI 共封装光学(CPO) 最可能的首批客户。我不会说他们离实现还遥遥无期。 根据摩根士丹利最近的研报，$LITE / $COHR / $SIVE 目前在 CPO 激光器可见性方面看起来就是你最看好的前三大标的。
英文原文
@Thomus0x eh, Rosenblatt June 30 note identified AMD as the likely first $AAOI CPO customer. I wouldn't quite say they aren't remotely close. $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE just look like your top 3 right now in terms of CPO laser visibility per the recent Morgan Stanley note.
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SIVE CEO称可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO为行业方向，激光器产能是瓶颈。
不完全适用于 $AAOI（他们也在研发共封装光学(CPO)，只是商业化进度稍落后）。 最近有一档名为“市场洞察：光子学与AI”的播客采访了 $SIVE 的CEO。 最有趣的观点是： “可插拔光模块在未来10年仍将存在”。 近期有很多关于CPO和RNG/MRC优化将蚕食可插拔模块总可寻址市场(TAM)的论点，但看来可插拔模块将长期存在。 而且未来会有多种架构路径并行（CEO也表示，除了CPO，非平面光学(NPO)在未来5年也是主要机会）。 至于挑战：Vickram表示，制造产能和原材料供应是主要瓶颈。这可能指的是上游连续波(CW)激光器扩产面临的现有瓶颈。 从播客来看，重点似乎放在可插拔市场，因为其短期TAM更大（考虑到 $JBL 和其他玩家，这可以理解），而CPO则是行业发展的北极星指标。 因此，如果 $SIVE 能通过并购获取更多可插拔光收发器IP（就像 $LITE 收购Cloud Light那样），可能会很有趣。 但简而言之： 未来路径多样，可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO似乎是行业发展的北极星方向。 感觉鉴于行业需求增长速度快于所有供应商的集体产能，合格的激光器供应商都有生存空间。
英文原文
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
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调研反馈积极，看好AMD CPO路线及上游激光器供应商SIVE。
@88magalhaes 主要看点是高管对共封装光学(CPO)主题性的评论。涉及 $AMD 以及超大规模云服务商的采用情况和时间表。针对此前因延迟消息而抛售的 CPO 板块，调研反馈非常积极。对于该板块中的 $SIVE 反馈也非常积极，因为它是 Ayar 和 $GFS 的激光器供应商，而这两家公司都与 $AMD 可能的 CPO 路线有关。但由于保密原因，无法获得直接供应商的确认。
英文原文
@88magalhaes Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.
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渠道称AMD将采用CPO，且供应链无延迟，反驳延迟报告。
来自 $AMD 推进 AI 的渠道调研： Helios 网络设备合作伙伴告诉我，他们预计 AMD 将在未来几代 Helios 扩展网络中采用共封装光学(CPO)。 并预计其他超大规模客户+行业也会走上 CPO 路线。 一位参与超大规模客户 CPO 项目的 AI 基础设施高管表示，他们未看到 CPO 扩展供应链有任何延迟迹象。 这反驳了近期第三方关于延迟的报道。 这是非正式评论，并非 AMD 或合作伙伴的官方指引。
英文原文
From $AMD Advancing AI, channel checks: Helios networking partners told me they expect AMD to pursue CPO for future generations of Helios scale up networking. And expects other hyperscalers + industry to go down the CPO route. One AI infra executive at a company involved in a hyperscaler CPO programs said they had seen no indication of CPO scale up supply chain delays. Pushing back on recent 3rd party delay reports. This was informal commentary, not official AMD or partner guidance.
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博主确认演讲重点提及CPU市场总规模正在快速增长。
@Double0Capital 没错！她演讲的很大一部分内容也是关于华盛顿特区（DC）的中央处理器(CPU)总可寻址市场(TAM)正在飞速增长。 https://t.co/Apy09Bs6W1
英文原文
@Double0Capital Yep! Large part of her speech was DC CPU TAM going brrr too. https://t.co/Apy09Bs6W1
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AI算力瓶颈从CPU扩展至全产业链，长期协议锁定需求，利好瓶颈环节投资。
$INTC 和 $AMD 将与中国客户签署针对 AI 数据中心 (AI DCs) 的 CPU 长期协议 (LTAs)（路透社）。据消息源称，年初以来部分 CPU 产品在中国的价格已上涨超过 40%。部分产品环比涨幅超过 10%。受 AI 推理 (AI inference) 的 CPU 配比影响，CPU 本身已是瓶颈。但更广泛的长期协议 (LTAs) 趋势似乎正从以下领域显现：内存方面，$MU、三星、$SNDK 和 SK 海力士签署 DRAM/NAND 长期协议；光子学方面，$LITE、$COHR 签署 EML 长期协议。且 Trendforce 近期报告称 $AMD 和超大规模云厂商正追求 CW 长期协议。我相信从 MLCC 到基板等更多领域也是如此。瓶颈投资者 +1……如果拥有跨越多年的“提货或付款”需求，很难成为“破裂的泡沫”。
英文原文
$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.
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马斯克极度看好人形机器人，特斯拉正从零构建新供应链，利好上游供应商。
以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记： 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1，马斯克就说过：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示： “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同，还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此，除了已知的供应商外，寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片，看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台，Giga Texas 是 1000 万台，所以从规模上看，$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提，马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU，鉴于他的声明，可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA)： “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间，并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下，以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”（仅针对结构性内存需求）。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下，后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产（之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD），以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR： 马斯克在判断未来方向（如电动汽车或太空）时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。
英文原文
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
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AI资本支出利好上游半导体，但市场担忧谷歌自身支出。
@haranguetan_ 在评论之前，具备一点点阅读理解能力会有所帮助。 AI资本支出(Capex) -> 流向内存、光子学、晶圆代工厂等上游半导体领域。这些参与者乐在其中。 $GOOGL 本身正在花钱，所以市场可能不喜欢他们（指谷歌）这一点。 但对于接收这些资金的参与者来说，这是积极的。
英文原文
@haranguetan_ Having an iota of reading comphrension helps a bit before commenting. AI Capex -> goes to upstream semis from memory, photonics, foundries, and others. These players are happy. $GOOGL itself is spending the money, so markets might not like that for them in specific. But it's positive to the players that receive that capital.
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超大规模云厂商上调AI资本支出，利好光网络板块财报表现。
@200pipss 超大规模云服务商上调人工智能资本支出指引，这一趋势尤其将在光网络（Optical Networking）板块的财报中体现出来。观察并学习……
英文原文
@200pipss Hyperscalers upping AI capex revisions is especially going to show up on optical networking earnings. Watch and learn...
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GOOGL上调26财年资本支出指引，利好上游半导体供应链。
$GOOGL 更新 2026 财年资本支出(capex)指引： 上调至 1950 亿-2050 亿美元。此前为 1800 亿-1900 亿美元。 预计 Google 在 2027 年也将大幅增加资本支出。 这或许是超大规模云服务商对上游半导体最看多的解读。 https://t.co/dXiI0Ien8X
英文原文
$GOOGL updates FY 2026 capex guidance: To $195B-$205B. Up from $180B-$190B. Google is also expected to significantly increase capex in 2027. This is perhaps the most bullish read through on upstream semis from a hyperscaler. https://t.co/dXiI0Ien8X
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AMD投资Anthropic并获巨额芯片订单，效仿英伟达模式
$AMD 将投资 50 亿美元于 Anthropic。Anthropic 反过来将签署一份价值数百亿美元的协议，购买 AMD 最新的芯片，规模为 2 GW。看起来他们是在效仿去年 $NVDA 与 Anthropic 的合作模式。
英文原文
$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic. Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars. Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year. https://t.co/SXBUq65u6P
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传闻AMD洽谈成为AAOI客户，博主将实地求证。
@CarterChen18 据罗森布拉特(Rosenblatt)渠道调查显示，$AMD 曾洽谈成为 $AAOI 的客户。这可能是一个选项，我会在活动期间四处打听。 https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
英文原文
@CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event. https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
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AMD活动或确认CPO路线，利好SIVE等上游光模块供应商。
情况稍显微妙。基本上，$AMD 的 SF 活动将在明天（周三/周四，7月22-23日）举行。根据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的客户笔记，AMD 预计将提供更多关于其可能的大规模扩展共封装光学(CPO)路线图及 MI500 的披露信息。如果他们确认 CPO 路线，这在主题上将是积极的，因为这意味着不仅仅是 $NVDA 在推动这一转型。至于 $SIVE，如果确认他们直接处于 AMD 供应链中，我们将获得更清晰的认知。目前，可以通过 $GFS（据报道参与 AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 AYAR（AMD 投资的公司）进行映射，但尚无正式确认。因此，如果你正在交易：- CPO 主题利好：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光互联 UALink。- AMD 披露使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE 用于 MI500 CPO：鉴于 $SIVE 是上游激光器供应商/参考激光器，这对他们将极其利好。目前，杰富瑞的 Blayne Curtis 预计 AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节如下：“我们关注 AMD 是否承诺基于 CPO 的大规模扩展解决方案，以及谁提供光引擎”。周三/周四我们将通过供应链获得更广泛的认知，今天尚早，难以定论。
英文原文
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
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AI全产业链普涨，博主质疑克莱默效应是否驱动整体行情。
铠侠(Kioxia)的存储板块收盘大涨17.18%。三星(Samsung)上涨6.15%。 来自 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 的光网络板块显示出复苏迹象，均上涨4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的“新云”(Neoclouds)板块盘前均上涨4%以上。 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL 均上涨4%以上。 “克莱默效应”(Cramer effect)对整个AI交易都有效吗？
英文原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
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Neoclouds/Colo板块受新合同及算力短缺催化强劲复苏
$IREN 因将新 AI 云合同带来的 ARR 目标从此前水平上调至 40 亿美元以上，上涨 19.69%。其客户群现包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 因一份 15 年期 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议上涨 10.45%。 $CIFR 上涨 16.76% $CLSK 上涨 13.7% $WYFI 上涨 9.18% $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在慢慢磨（反应滞后）。 但看起来，随着 Kimi 算力短缺新闻和新合同等新催化剂的出现，Neoclouds/Colo 玩家正在强劲复苏。
英文原文
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.