$MU
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市场在瓶颈间轮动，基本面未变仅估值波动，建议理性看待。
是的，我依然看好存储芯片，如 $MU / 三星。正如我之前所说，市场倾向于在瓶颈之间轮动。本周看来，光子学领域从 $AXTI 到 $LITE 再次成为焦点。关键在于……主要变化的是股价，随后辅以一些叙事和零星更新。对于光子学：> 在7月的下跌中，我们已经知道 $COHR / $LITE 的激光器已完全售罄，未来两年无货。> 我们从上季度财报电话会中已知 $AAOI 的需求失衡。7月崩盘期间，除了清算后的挂牌价外，基本面没有任何恶化。然而，当 $AAOI 跌至 $75 或 $AXTI 跌至 $35 时，许多人称其为“骗局”……但当它们涨回 $140 或 $80 时，人们又看多了，尽管光模块/磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈未变，甚至可能更糟（例如美国拟禁止中国新光模块，需求预测上调）。对于存储：我目睹大量散户投降，但这些人一个月前在 $MU 签署16份SCA并给出卓越指引时曾极度看多。或曾庆祝三星拥有全球最高营业利润。这里有一些更新，例如 Rubin Ultra 的存储优化（Nvidia每代都在追求），价格不再极端高于预期。但在当前价格下，营业利润相对于市值简直荒谬，尤其是存储成为结构性需求。明年的需求失衡应该更严重。人们倾向于在板块下跌时投降并跟随叙事（例如伊朗战争期间的氦气/LNG），即使瓶颈或基本面未变（例如 $SPCX Elon 财报电话会重申存储紧张）。我不能告诉别人该做什么：但 $140 的 $AAOI 和 $75 的 $AAOI 是同一家公司。市值 $1.5T 的三星和 $980B 的三星是同一家公司。只是估值和叙事（通常是噪音）在变，市场在板块间轮动。
英文原文
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
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内存大厂2027产能售罄，反驳供过于求论调。
SK海力士、$MU 和三星已售罄2027年的DRAM/HBM产能。 $SNDK、三星、美光当前的年度NAND产能已售罄，铠侠和SK海力士预计将于2026年8月前敲定分配方案。 - 客户仅能获得其初始请求量60-70%的配额 - 业内人士指出，2027年将迎来最严重的内存短缺时刻 - 分配数量已基本确定，但最终交货价格将在临近交付时确定 来源：Digitimes，引用行业消息。 当产能早已售罄时，很难看到那些关于2027年早中期内存“供过于求”的说法。
英文原文
SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM. $SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026. - Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested - industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage - Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources. Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.
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亚马逊资本支出上调及算力短缺证实，AXTI 产能扩张且供不应求，看多 AI 半导体及光通信供应链。
几条财报摘要，重点是我看好的 $AXTI 和 $AMZN： 亚马逊： - 将 2026 年资本支出上调至 2200 亿美元（此前为 2000 亿美元），部分原因是内存成本上升，这对 $MU 和三星是利好。 - 即使达到 2200 亿美元，亚马逊的产能仍无法满足 2026 年的所有需求；Jassy 预计 2027 年情况相同。 - 大多数 2027 年的新增产能已被预订，2028 年的大量产能也已预订。 主要浏览了上游半导体板块。$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN 和 $MSFT 均指出算力短缺。 几周前关于 Meta 等公司“算力过剩”以及超大规模云厂商削减支出的所有叙事……全是胡扯。 亚马逊财报对 AI 半导体交易非常看多。 AXTI： - AXT 计划在 2026 年将磷化铟(InP)产能翻倍，2027 年再翻倍。 - 预计这将使 AXT 成为“迄今为止全球最大的磷化铟生产商”——冲鸭。 - 第二季度营收为 4760 万美元，创 AXT 历史单季新高（来自数据中心应用的 InP 营收创纪录达 3070 万美元）。 - 营收环比增长 77%，同比增长 164%。 - InP 营收-产能目标：2026 年底每季度 6000 万美元。 - 2027 年底每季度 1.3 亿美元。 由于管理层表示他们将“寻找任何方式增加产能扩张”，1.3 亿美元的目标可能会进一步提高。 管理层称报告中的积压订单仍远高于 1 亿美元，但该数字已不能反映所有可用需求。 “无论我们增加产能的速度多快，客户需求持续超过供应。” 800G/1.6T 正在驱动当前周期，而 NPO/CPO 将其延伸至 2027 年之后。 此外，他们的目标是 50% 以上的毛利率：“我们绝对应该瞄准一个以五开头的数字。” 中国需求翻倍有余，且与 Casela、$COHR 和 $LITE 的协议并未实质性推动第二季度业绩。 这甚至还没有考虑我预测的随着 InP 衬底瓶颈加剧带来的巨大平均售价(ASP)上涨。 摘要： - 亚马逊算力需求过大，需要资本支出来满足，因此上游半导体起飞。 - AXT 是全球最大的 InP 衬底供应商，高毛利率，产能扩张，且供应跟不上需求。 看多来自亚马逊的需求端+资本支出。看多上游光通信供应链，因为需求过大。
英文原文
Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.
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博主认为AI需求加速信号明确，短期波动属去杠杆，看好光互连及存储板块。
我个人认为这是极短期的去杠杆行为，导致许多个股超跌。 - $BE 和 $TER 公布了超预期的业绩，Bloom 报告营收同比增长 166% + 利润率扩张 + 上调 2026 年指引... Teradyne 报告营收同比增长 104%，每股收益增长 300%+。 - 中国领先的光学玩家公布了惊人的初步财报，对西方光子学板块有极强的映射效应。 - 我认为财报季倾向于提醒市场 AI 加速仍在继续。我预计 $LITE、$SNDK / SK Hynix 以及板块龙头 ERs 将继续这一趋势。 - 但感觉市场更多是在奖励现有的加速，而非基于短期修正（如 $AMKR 所见）的未来一年增长。 - 总之，对我跟踪的主题来说看起来非常积极。 - 然后你有 $GOOGL 资本支出上调至 1950-2050 亿美元，这通常是超大规模云厂商最大的 AI 需求信号。 - 预测市场显示下次 FOMC 会议利率不变的概率为 77%。特朗普政府周一呼吁美联储降息。 - 所以今年三次加息的恐惧似乎有些夸大。 - 从 DUV 到 $CXMT 产能过剩的中国恐惧也被极度夸大。我们在每个行业都见过这种情况，直到人们记住激光或 HBM 瓶颈存在是有原因的。 - 就个人想法而言，看到所有东西一起涨跌是不健康的，尤其是这些主题。但我个人并不担心，因为我对我的持仓有充分信心，特别是像 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 这样的光互连领域。 - $META 计算和 $GOOGL GCP 利润率/增长显示出对 $NBIS 及类似新云业务模式的需求增加。 - $META 及其他超大规模云厂商关于与 $SNDK 和三星/SK Hynix、$MU 的长期协议（LTAs）的笔记指向结构性内存需求。 - 可以一直列举下去... - 但当 Jim Cramer 告诉每个保证金交易员在开盘时“全部卖出”，而新闻说存在 AI 泡沫时。 - 我讨厌别人说“它在跌所以卖出”。我相信重要的是看加速的营收/每股收益增长。如果营收加速与超大规模云厂商资本支出保持一致，那么该逻辑依然成立。 - 总之：我看到了 AI 需求/营收加速的迹象，超大规模云厂商资本支出是最重要的跟踪指标之一。 - 我猜我们会看到该主题广泛复苏。但我无法预测具体发生在哪一小时、哪一天或哪一周。
英文原文
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
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AI算力瓶颈从CPU扩展至全产业链，长期协议锁定需求，利好瓶颈环节投资。
$INTC 和 $AMD 将与中国客户签署针对 AI 数据中心 (AI DCs) 的 CPU 长期协议 (LTAs)（路透社）。据消息源称，年初以来部分 CPU 产品在中国的价格已上涨超过 40%。部分产品环比涨幅超过 10%。受 AI 推理 (AI inference) 的 CPU 配比影响，CPU 本身已是瓶颈。但更广泛的长期协议 (LTAs) 趋势似乎正从以下领域显现：内存方面，$MU、三星、$SNDK 和 SK 海力士签署 DRAM/NAND 长期协议；光子学方面，$LITE、$COHR 签署 EML 长期协议。且 Trendforce 近期报告称 $AMD 和超大规模云厂商正追求 CW 长期协议。我相信从 MLCC 到基板等更多领域也是如此。瓶颈投资者 +1……如果拥有跨越多年的“提货或付款”需求，很难成为“破裂的泡沫”。
英文原文
$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.
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马斯克极度看好人形机器人，特斯拉正从零构建新供应链，利好上游供应商。
以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记： 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1，马斯克就说过：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示： “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同，还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此，除了已知的供应商外，寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片，看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台，Giga Texas 是 1000 万台，所以从规模上看，$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提，马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU，鉴于他的声明，可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA)： “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间，并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下，以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”（仅针对结构性内存需求）。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下，后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产（之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD），以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR： 马斯克在判断未来方向（如电动汽车或太空）时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。
英文原文
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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券商称DRAM短缺加剧，内存供需紧张将持续至2028年。
Meritz Securities的Kim Sunwoo：“现在不是抛售三星电子和$SKHY的时候。” 他们认为市场过度误解了半导体局势，且DRAM短缺将在今年下半年加剧。 - 2026年下半年：“供应商仅能满足75%–80%的DRAM需求”。 - 2027年：“满足率预计降至60%区间。” 文章中附带了市场预测，显示SK海力士2027年市盈率为3.5倍，三星为3.9倍。 认为$INTC CEO关于时间框架的言论最到位：“直到至少2028年，内存供应和价格都不会缓解”。 特别是在$MU签署16份有利的“提货或付款”长期协议后，内存需求似乎具有结构性。
英文原文
Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.
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美光签长协后股价反跌，博主认为这是去杠杆尾声而非基本面问题。
今天，$MU 宣布与 $QCOM 签署了存储长期协议(LTA)。有趣的是，美光随后立即下跌了 5.37%。鉴于签署了所有这些结构性协议，感觉存储或 AI 个股本身似乎并没有什么问题？这更像是去杠杆/利润率级联效应的尾声。
英文原文
Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.
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存储与光模块基本面强劲，但市场反直觉抛售。
@michaelsikand 下季度DRAM涨价20%+，$SNDK与$META签长期协议，$MU签16+长期协议。市场：继续抛售存储股。800G光模块需求大幅上调？激光器售罄至2029年初？市场：抛售光电子和激光公司。
英文原文
@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.
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Trendforce 预测 26H2 SLC NAND 大涨，华邦等小厂受益明显。
嗯，据 Trendforce 预测，2026 年下半年 SLC NAND（单级单元闪存）价格预计上涨 120-170%。 $MU（美光，21%）和 Kioxia（铠侠，20%）占据最大份额，但更清晰的受益者似乎是： 1. Winbond（华邦电子，2344）：约占 SLC NAND 市场 15% 2. Macronix（宏碁半导体，2337）：约 11% 市场份额 3. SkyHigh https://t.co/6F2Aszjd90
英文原文
Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh https://t.co/6F2Aszjd90
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AI半导体板块集体大跌，属非基本面驱动的无差别抛售。
直说了： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 等全都一起崩盘…… 毕竟它们今天至今都跌了 -4% 到 -10%+。 这大概跟个股基本面没什么关系。 这是不分青红皂白的抛售（Indiscriminate selloffs）
英文原文
Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from
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博主批评某报告夸大新架构对TAM的负面影响，类比指出其逻辑荒谬。
@VixOver20 他们正在发布愚蠢的耸人听闻的报告。通过采用一种新架构，然后过度推断称整个总可寻址市场(TAM)将下降40-50%。这就像我说OpenAI优化了内存压缩，所以$MU的TAM下降80%一样。
英文原文
@VixOver20 They’re publishing stupid sensational reports. By taking a new architecture then overreaching by saying the entire TAM will drop 40-50%. It’s like if I said OpenAI optimized memory compression so $MU TAM drops 80%.
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质疑市场客观性，建议直接参考英伟达声明而非过度解读。
@j1nv3st 不妨说，我认为市场不再视它们为客观。人们倾向于发布过度延伸的主张，而忽略了细微的技术细节。比如几个月前关于 $MU 在 $NVDA 的 HBM4 共封装光学(CPO) 供应链中毫无份额的说法。我个人只是直接听取 $NVDA 的声明，
英文原文
@j1nv3st Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore. There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back. I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and
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MU 广岛扩产利好本土设备商，NAND 短缺持续至 2027 年。
关于存储芯片的一些汇总更新： - $MU 主导在广岛进行新的 1.5 万亿日元（约 93 亿美元）投资。（对 Disco、Advantest、Resonac、Towa 构成利好传导）因为资本支出是本地化的。 - 摩根士丹利指出 NAND 供应短缺将持续至 2027 年，因此 $SNDK /
英文原文
Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK /
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马斯克警示内存供需失衡及涨价，凸显其对该瓶颈的高可见度。
埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)只是随意地拉响了警报。关于$MU / SK海力士(SK Hynix) / 三星(Samsung) 内存相对于供应的巨大需求+价格上涨。他可能对内存瓶颈(memory bottleneck)的可见度比其他人更高……
英文原文
Just Elon Musk casually sounding the alarm. On the massive demand + price hikes for $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung memory relative to supply. He probably has higher visibility into the memory bottleneck than others… https://t.co/iszX0YJHuS
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博主自嘲求职并感叹持仓大跌，借足球赛调侃市场跌幅。
不，我要去填 $WEN 的求职申请表，然后在垃圾桶后面扎营。即使 $MU 和 $SNDK 今天表现离谱，也救不了我的投资组合。不过我在为日本队加油，希望瑞典队能以 0-2 被碾压，以此对应 20% 的跌幅。
英文原文
Nah, gonna fill out the job application for $WEN and set up camp behind the dumpsters. Even $MU and $SNDK ridiculous performance today couldn't save my port. Cheering on Japan though, hoping Sweden gets mogged with a 2-0 to represent the 20% drop.
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内存与大盘半导体抗跌，光子、太空及热门AI软件股大幅回调。
感觉唯一没崩盘的…… 是像 $MU 这样的内存、指数，或者像英特尔这样的大盘半导体股。 - 光子学领域从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE 下跌 40%。 - 太空领域从 $ASTS 和 $RKLB 一个月下跌 40%。 - 热门 AI 股如 $PLTR 年初至今下跌约 35%。 - 软件股如 $CRM 下跌 https://t.co/aqC7wEgAKB
英文原文
Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down https://t.co/aqC7wEgAKB
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美光CEO预测人形机器人将开启长达数十年的内存需求超级周期。
今天有个很有趣的声明：$MU CEO 预测由人形机器人驱动的记忆体需求将开启一个持续数十年的周期。 “他说，人形机器人所需的内存量大约是当今 L2+ 级自动驾驶汽车的十倍。” “而这一需求浪潮预计将在 https://t.co/bVnvG1Ihit 之前开始”
英文原文
Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the https://t.co/bVnvG1Ihit
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美光财报及指引大幅超预期，签署16份长期协议，表现惊艳。
每次看美光($MU)的财报都令人惊叹： 营收：414.6亿美元，高于预期的358亿美元。 每股收益(EPS)：25.11美元，高于预期的20.78美元。 前瞻指引： 营收：490亿至510亿美元，高于预期的432.4亿美元。 每股收益(EPS)：30.00至32.00美元，高于预期的25.31美元。 “美光周三表示已签署16份长期协议” “完成后，https://t.co/SlscP4IoI8
英文原文
Always amazing looking at $MU earnings: Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est. EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est. Forecasts: Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31. “Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements” "When completed, https://t.co/SlscP4IoI8
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博主调侃今日半导体板块大跌，列出多只个股跌幅。
好奇有没有人的投资组合在今天这个“有趣”的日子里是绿色的（盈利的）。 $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% SK海力士: -12.35% 三星: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
英文原文
Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
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博主认为半导体股回调是明确买入机会，质疑加息叙事。
就我个人而言，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM 的回调看起来是一个明确的买入机会。因为我们在没有任何新的实质性宏观经济数据（周四公布）的情况下，因诸如三次加息之类的 BS 叙事出现了大幅下跌。如果机构真的相信卖方关于三次加息的观点
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Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside
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博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
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回顾存储暴涨，警示光通信预测过热，但看好光子学处于超周期早期。
提醒一下：3个月前，99%的X用户看空存储芯片... 自那以来：$MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK海力士 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) 三星 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) 如果你看到大量预测称三星等存储公司在2028年将成为全球最赚钱的公司。 也许现在应该独立思考，跳出当时的叙事如“石油、LNG、氦气、伊朗等”。 现在对光通信(optical)及其2027、2028年的预测可能也是如此。 但我确实认为光子学(photonics)和存储是两大顶级主题，且光通信正处于超级周期的非常早期阶段。
英文原文
Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.
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博主重申美光如英伟达般受益于AI打破存储周期，验证其投资逻辑。
我确实说过 $MU 看起来像下一个 $NVDA。现在它的市值已达 1.23 万亿美元。早在 2025 年，我就开始更多讨论三星电子/SK 海力士。今年 1 月，我加大了对 $SNDK 等存储主题的关注。我很高兴我对美光+存储的预测是正确的。
英文原文
I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA . Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is
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英伟达称存储短缺多年延续，支撑美光和韩系存储盈利。
看吧……$NVDA CEO 警告称，由于 AI 基础设施需求大规模扩张，存储短缺预计会持续多年。 明天还会有进一步公告。 $MU 以及 $EWY（三星/SK海力士）的营业利润预测，现在看起来也没那么疯狂了？
英文原文
Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
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点评市场回调中高beta科技股大跌与媒体叙事。
市场回调真有意思。 龙头从 $NVDA 下跌4.87%，到 $MU 下跌7.03%。像 $PL 这样的高 beta 名字下跌22.02%。 看到媒体总是试图这样解释很有趣： “博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录市值蒸发。” 博通预计……
英文原文
Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected https://t.co/D1cE7sjKBs
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认为内部人卖股本身不改变基本面。
回复 @AngelSagiri：我对每只股票都重复过这一点：内部人卖股字面上不代表任何东西。 无线业务董事总经理把所有权转给美国投资者，并不会改变这家公司任何业务基本面。 $NVDA 和 $MU 的 CEO 一直在卖股，但没人眨眼。
英文原文
@AngelSagiri I’ve repeated this for every single stock, but insider selling means literally nothing. A managing director of wireless transferring ownership over to US investors doesn’t change any fundamentals about the business. CEO of $NVDA and $MU sell shares all the time but nobody bats
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谷歌为AI资本开支融资，利好上游生态。
我从没想过会看到 $GOOGL 需要为 AI 资本开支融资800亿美元的这一天…… 然后沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 在为超大云厂商 AI 建设提供资金。 - 400亿美元 ATM、300亿美元发行、伯克希尔100亿美元 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO、联发科、$TSM、$MU 的上游生态应该会一路受益。
英文原文
I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. https://t.co/CxvctNZyMC
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列出黄仁勋“你们现在太富了”评论涉及的供应链伙伴。
“你们现在太富了” $NVDA ETF。 这些只是 Jensen 用那句话举杯致意的一部分供应链伙伴： TSMC（TSM）- 1.95万亿美元 Micron（MU）- 1.10万亿美元 Delta - 2022.8亿美元 Amphenol（$APH）- 1830亿美元
英文原文
The “You’re So Rich Now” $NVDA ETF. These were just some of the supply chain partners Jensen made a toast to with that comment: TSMC (https://t.co/ihVngJn3CV / TSM) - $1.95T Micron (MU) - $1.10T Delta (https://t.co/nxy6qVoi97) - $202.28B Amphenol ( $APH )- $183.00B https://t.co/khJTATSxIl