业绩复盘
收益回顾、持仓表现、对错总结 · 共 481 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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博主分享近期因财报或市场波动对多只AI供应链个股的加仓操作及资金调配逻辑。
@RockyKh49376975 嗯，我个人在40多美元时加仓了$AMKR，因为我认为在$NVDA 15亿美元交易+$TSM 10年协议后，财报后跌这么多令人惊讶。不过它更多是2028年的标的，尽管2027年有独立的爬坡计划。- 在Foci跌至400时做了成本平均（$TSM COUPE共封装光学+ $NVDA的主要FAU供应商，其他财报如$FORM显示COUPE现在开始爬坡）。财报后也加仓了一些$XFAB，因为他们验证了CPO共封装光学+800V曝光，不过可能需要等待一段时间。在13 EU末日暴跌时加仓了$LPK，GCS不会消失，我认为由于Absolics延迟，出货量爬坡仅推迟了一个季度，我愿意等3个月。CoPoS、三星等应该在2027年推动更多需求。在OE Solutions跌至约14,000韩元时加仓，认为韩国领先的EML公司且拥有独立InP晶圆厂市值仅约1.1亿美元很奇怪。- Win Semi等名字对我非常有吸引力，但可惜没有足够资金在不使用高杠杆的情况下加仓。可能想逐步建仓$SIVE和$AAOI，因为那是我的两个最爱。鉴于Unitree IPO还有3周左右，正在关注$CCXI的机会，该上市应该像$SPCX的光环效应一样提振人形机器人板块。TLDR：只是资金调配，我个人的风险管理。标的与之前相同。
英文原文
@RockyKh49376975 Hmm, I personally added $AMKR in the $40's since I thought it was surprising it dropped that much after ER, even after $NVDA $1.5B deal + $TSM 10Y agreement. It's more of a 2028 name though, though they have separate ramps in 2027. - Did some cost averaging on names like Foci on drop to 400 (leading FAU supplier to $TSM COUPE + $NVDA, COUPE shows signs of ramp now from other ERs like $FORM). Added some $XFAB too after earnings since they verified CPO + 800V exposure, might be a bit of waiting though. Added $LPK on the 13 EU doomdrop, GCS isn't going anywhere, think volume ramp just got delayed a quarter because of Absolics delay and I'm fine waiting 3 months. CoPoS, Samsung, and others should drive demand more in 2027. And added OE Solutions on drop to ~14,000 KRW, thought it was strange Korea's leading EML company with independent InP fabs was only worth ~$110M MC. - Names like Win Semi + others are really really compelling to me but just dont have enough capital to add sadly without going on heavy margin. Probably want to scale into $SIVE and $AAOI more since those are my two favorites. And looking at $CCXI opportunities given Unitree IPO is around 3 weeks, that listing should boost humanoid/robotics sector a bit similar to the $SPCX halo effect. TLDR: Just moving capital around, my own personal risk management. Same names as before.
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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博主澄清免费分享初衷，解释高杠杆组合回撤原因，看好AI结构性需求。
谢谢！我一直免费分享个人研究和核心观点。不试图推销任何东西，也不告诉别人该怎么做。 最重要的是，我对自己的收益（无论盈亏）保持透明。 也许这种信息民主化让某些商业模式感到不安…… 当别人试图推销他们那永远正确、预测了半导体崩盘的40美元技术分析订阅时。 但如果他们真的相信这一点，他们早就通过买入看跌期权赚了5000%+，就不需要营销付费墙了。 是的，如果我使用1.4倍杠杆，且集中在存储/光子学底层资产的组合平均下跌35%……你会得到49%的回撤。 我只是分享发生了什么。 但我预计AI股会复苏，因为我看到从算力到能源、存储到网络的需求都是结构性的。
英文原文
Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.
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博主分享AI瓶颈板块近50%回撤，坚信长期逻辑未变并坚持持有。
感觉糟透了，近期崩盘后本月最大回撤达-49.4%。 我的投资组合主要集中在人工智能(AI)的卡脖子环节和瓶颈领域。 包括存储、光子学、机器人和上游半导体（使用杠杆），这些板块的贝塔值通常高于其他板块。但近期因崩盘已降低杠杆。 我看到很多人在嘲笑这次下跌或AI概念股，声称显而易见： - “AI是泡沫” - “存储/韩综指是泡沫” - “光子学是泡沫” - “人形机器人不会有前途” - “新云厂商将被Meta等超大规模云厂商取代” 还有一堆散户和机器人喊着“清仓，永远别想恢复”。 但我坚信所有这些主题都有结构性收入增长或技术变革作为支撑。 此前当政府威胁实施全球关税时，我也经历过类似的回撤，随后市场实现了复苏。 我个人拥有更长的投资视野和比他人更高的波动容忍度，以观察事态如何发展。 特别是考虑到许多散户以周为单位看待问题：不，如果我将收入拐点预测在2027年下半年，而现在才2026年，我的投资逻辑并没有错。 总之，短期感觉不好，但为了透明度还是想分享一下。
英文原文
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
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博主承认EWY多头亏损，但坚持持有存储股，因看好SK海力士与三星基本面。
@babybluecream 是的，我的 $EWY 多头仓位确实跌了不少。不过我仍然认为 SK 海力士和三星的营业利润最终会追上其市值，所以我继续持有我的存储芯片仓位。无论如何，看着从日经指数、台湾股市到韩国 KOSPI 的亚洲市场大幅下跌，这并不是一段愉快的时期。
英文原文
@babybluecream Yeah, my $EWY longs crashed quite a bit. I still think the operating income that SK Hynix and Samsung produces will catch up to the MC eventually, so I’m holding my memory positions. Regardless, not a fun time to watch Asian markets from Nikkei to Taiwan to Kospi drop so much.
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博主感叹算法导致其错过SIVE及激光股反弹行情。
@Goodly2016 我刚刚意识到算法之神在 $LITE 和激光概念股反弹后，又让我错过了 $SIVE。
英文原文
@Goodly2016 I just the algo gods just missed $SIVE after $LITE and the laser names pulled a recovery.
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博主确认仍持有AXTI，并提及早期标的EWY涨幅巨大。
@starlightrvrie 是的，我仍然持有 $AXTI。而且我早期的一些投资逻辑，比如 $EWY，已经上涨了百分之几百。即使我不再那么频繁地提及它们。
英文原文
@starlightrvrie Yep still holding $AXTI. And a lot of my older thesis like $EWY that are up hundreds of percent. Even if I don’t mention it as much anymore
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Spacemob表现不及瓶颈组，主因机会成本，但长期看好ASTS。
@lucas_SPACs 不知道，Spacemob 在过去一年里相比瓶颈兄弟团(bottleneck bros)表现不太理想。我认为这主要是机会成本的问题，即使我长期看好 $ASTS。https://t.co/UQZQcpXkN2
英文原文
@lucas_SPACs idk Spacemob hasn't been doing too well over the past year compared to bottleneck bros. I think it's mainly just opportunity cost, even if I like $ASTS long term. https://t.co/UQZQcpXkN2
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回顾 $RDDT 业绩爆发后经历漫长盘整，最终走势符合预期。
@TW_trades_ 之前因 $RDDT 的爆发式季度业绩而焦虑不已，随后却经历了漫长的震荡盘整(chopping)。但很高兴最终走势符合预期。
英文原文
@TW_trades_ Was losing my mind over $RDDT's blowout quarter, just to see chopping for the longest time. But glad it played out well.
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博主分享经历大幅回撤，但坚信AI瓶颈股长期跑赢，心态平和。
@ak_dfranco 我也会遭遇大幅回撤，尤其是当市场认为我的投资论点(Thesis)为时过早时。 但我非常有信心，人工智能(AI)的卡脖子/瓶颈(Bottlenecks)相关标的在长期会跑赢大盘并得到验证。所以我很乐意在此期间忍受下跌。 只是沿途分享我的盈亏。
英文原文
@ak_dfranco I suffer major drawdowns too, especially if markets think my thesis is early. But I’m very confident that AI chokepoints/bottlenecks names outperform and get validated in the long run. So happy to sit through the drops in the meantime. Just sharing wins and losses along the way
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澄清META误传，并确认AAOI等三股为重仓标的。
@ontrialperiod 当全球和美国市场因关于 $META 的误传和断章取义的引言而暴跌时。我大概需要澄清一下？ 话虽如此，$AAOI、$SIVE 和 $CCXI 确实构成了我投资组合中的大比例持仓。
英文原文
@ontrialperiod when global and US markets crash off misinformation and out of context quotes from $META. I probably want to clear that up? That thing said, $AAOI, $SIVE, and $CCXI do make up large concentration in my portfolio.
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博主自嘲求职并感叹持仓大跌，借足球赛调侃市场跌幅。
不，我要去填 $WEN 的求职申请表，然后在垃圾桶后面扎营。即使 $MU 和 $SNDK 今天表现离谱，也救不了我的投资组合。不过我在为日本队加油，希望瑞典队能以 0-2 被碾压，以此对应 20% 的跌幅。
英文原文
Nah, gonna fill out the job application for $WEN and set up camp behind the dumpsters. Even $MU and $SNDK ridiculous performance today couldn't save my port. Cheering on Japan though, hoping Sweden gets mogged with a 2-0 to represent the 20% drop.
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博主感叹AI投资组合跑输迷因股，询问是否有人建仓。
$WEN 的迷因股交易员们从日本到美国登上了全球媒体！ 这家汉堡快餐连锁店现在上涨了约 50%，相当令人印象深刻。 感觉有点糟糕，被边缘化，看着我的 AI 内存/光通信(CPO)投资组合表现不如 $RDDT 这只迷因股。 有人建仓了吗？ https://t.co/hM0RhWh21c
英文原文
The $WEN meme traders made it to Global Media from Japan to US! The burger fast food chain is now up ~50%, which is pretty impressive. Feels bad to be sidelined and see my AI memory/optical portfolio perform worse than a $RDDT memestock tho. Did anyone take positions? https://t.co/hM0RhWh21c
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博主反思近期大幅回撤，称CPO持仓受损严重，自嘲策略为分散亏损。
我也这么认为。但在此期间，我将我的策略称为：分散亏损(Diversified Losses)。 涉及 $AXTI、$SOI、$AAOI 以及许多其他股票。 最近经历了大幅回撤， 共封装光学(CPO) 敞口受损最严重（如 Foci、Msscorp 等）以及相邻标的，感觉糟透了。 大概是个人的教训，我持有 https://t.co/Ob2No0rLa6 太多了。
英文原文
Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much https://t.co/Ob2No0rLa6
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博主调侃今日半导体板块大跌，列出多只个股跌幅。
好奇有没有人的投资组合在今天这个“有趣”的日子里是绿色的（盈利的）。 $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% SK海力士: -12.35% 三星: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
英文原文
Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
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博主反思三月未重仓TSEM，并指出GFS和INTC近期暴跌。
哇，$TSEM 今天大涨 10%+。 好时光，回想起来，三月份本应将其作为我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这样的晶圆代工厂最近一直在暴跌。 https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
英文原文
Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
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SPCX市值暴跌，反向克拉默策略短期大幅跑赢指数。
哇，$SPCX 的市值现在已下跌超过 5830 亿美元…… 自从吉姆·克拉默 (Jim Cramer) 在 210 美元给出看多 (bullish) 建议以来。说实话，目睹这一切真是令人惊叹。 反向克拉默 (Inverse Cramer) 策略在 3 个交易日内回报约 21%，跑赢了你最大指数一整年的表现？ https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s
英文原文
Wow, $SPCX is now down over $583B in MC... Since Jim Cramer gave a bullish call at $210. Pretty amazing to witness tbh. Inverse Cramer would have returned ~21% in 3 trading days, outperforming a year in your largest indexes? https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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博主反思未买入MLCC瓶颈受益股，错失大幅涨幅。
提醒我，每当我指出一个瓶颈时，我自己都应该做多。我之前刚提出过关于 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）瓶颈的想法。太诱电（Taiyo Yuden）上涨 211.38%，$VSH 上涨 146.15%，村田（Murata）上涨 155.43%。就在过去两个月内……感觉真糟。
英文原文
Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself. Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back. Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43% Within the last 2 months... Feels bad.
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博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
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回顾核心欧洲多头持仓，重点解析Sivers在光子学领域的瓶颈地位。
简单回顾一下，以下是我所有的核心欧洲多头持仓： 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers：如你所知，它是下一代光子学的核心激光瓶颈环节，涵盖从1.6T可插拔光模块到共封装光学(CPO)。 嵌入在许多超大规模云计算服务商的供应商（如Jabil）中。
英文原文
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs: 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO. Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil
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回顾早期三大主题论点兑现及IREN因抛压停滞的预测。
我早期就写过关于这三个主题的论点：新云(Neoclouds)、光子学(Photonics)和存储(Memory)。现在，看着我的论点从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 逐一兑现，感觉很有趣。甚至我的警告也对了，$IREN 因持续60亿美元的抛售而依然停滞。
英文原文
I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS . Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling
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回顾$SIVE发布3个月涨1900%，称其为第二伟大论点。
自4月我在4瑞典克朗发布$SIVE多头论点以来，已正式过去3个月。 该标的目前涨幅约1900%…… 包括摩根大通(JPM)到富达(Fidelity)在内的许多美国机构才刚刚建仓。 这可能是我继$AXTI之后有史以来第二伟大的论点。 匿名者们，你们听进去了吗？
英文原文
It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK. This idea is now up ~1900%… With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions. Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI . Did you listen anon?
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感谢中国证券报客观报道其绿的谐波分析。
感谢《中国证券报》对我关于绿的谐波(688017)分析的客观报道！ 文章标题是： “一条推文点燃机器人龙头，‘白发股神’Serenity究竟是谁？” 供应链是全球性的，而我的……
英文原文
I appreciate the objective coverage from 中国证券报 (China Securities Journal) on my LeaderDrive (688017) analysis! On the article: “A single tweet ignites the leading robotics stock, who exactly is the "White-Haired God of Stocks" Serenity?” Supply chains are global, and my https://t.co/RejpuRdXda
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提到机器人板块上周五普遍上涨。
回复 @dessa27092001：我很惊讶整个机器人行业上周五都涨了好几个百分点！ 有篇新浪财经文章说，很多 ETF 上涨了3%到5.4%。
英文原文
@dessa27092001 I'm surprised the entire robotics industry rose multiple percent last Friday! Some article called Sina Money said a lot of ETFs went up 3%-5.4%. https://t.co/cPJeUsEDok
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公布曝光收益并称将捐给救助机构。
如果你好奇的话： 1.07894491亿次（1亿+）曝光，收入4649美元！ 所有这些钱都会捐给犬只救助，之后会做大额捐赠！ 大约是每救助一只狗600美元，所以它会随着 Serenity 粉丝数量按比例扩大！ 我也相信要把我从 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 上赚到的所有利润……
英文原文
If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI https://t.co/MqFWfvTCgH
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称绿的谐波研究引发中国媒体关注和涨停。
显然我现在到处都出现在中国新闻里了？ 我刚发布了一些关于绿的谐波(688017)及其在人形机器人供应链中作用的研究。 看起来中国机器人股票板块上涨了，688017 还触及20%涨停？ 感谢他们称我为“海外股神”。
英文原文
Apparently I’m all over Chinese news now? I just published some research on LeaderDrive (688017) and their role in humanoid supply chains. Looks like China’s robotics stock sector went up and 688017 hit 20% limit up? I appreciate they called me “Overseas God”. https://t.co/mdASEvmsj0
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点评市场回调中高beta科技股大跌与媒体叙事。
市场回调真有意思。 龙头从 $NVDA 下跌4.87%，到 $MU 下跌7.03%。像 $PL 这样的高 beta 名字下跌22.02%。 看到媒体总是试图这样解释很有趣： “博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录市值蒸发。” 博通预计……
英文原文
Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected https://t.co/D1cE7sjKBs
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称相关对冲基金创始合伙人离职或与SIVE上涨有关。
回复 @Ailisatlx @zGwmby：“Eric Andersson 选择在5月结束雇佣关系。” 那家对冲基金的创始联席经理离职，很可能是一个重大信号，说明他们的公司因为 $SIVE 上涨而快撑不住了。
英文原文
@Ailisatlx @zGwmby "Eric Andersson chose to end his employment during the month of May." The founding co-manager of that hedge fund quitting is probably a big sign their firms is going under from $SIVE going up.
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称某机构因SIVE年内亏损31%。
回复 @zGwmby：照这个速度，他们公司因为 $SIVE 年初至今亏损31.02%，快要撑不住了。
英文原文
@zGwmby At this rate their firm is going under being YTD -31.02% from $SIVE. https://t.co/oqh6g6fWjj