· 业绩复盘
相关概念： 新云算力 Neoclouds机器人产业链光子学 Photonics中美贸易关税
感觉糟透了，近期崩盘后本月最大回撤达-49.4%。 我的投资组合主要集中在人工智能(AI)的卡脖子环节和瓶颈领域。 包括存储、光子学、机器人和上游半导体（使用杠杆），这些板块的贝塔值通常高于其他板块。但近期因崩盘已降低杠杆。 我看到很多人在嘲笑这次下跌或AI概念股，声称显而易见： - “AI是泡沫” - “存储/韩综指是泡沫” - “光子学是泡沫” - “人形机器人不会有前途” - “新云厂商将被Meta等超大规模云厂商取代” 还有一堆散户和机器人喊着“清仓，永远别想恢复”。 但我坚信所有这些主题都有结构性收入增长或技术变革作为支撑。 此前当政府威胁实施全球关税时，我也经历过类似的回撤，随后市场实现了复苏。 我个人拥有更长的投资视野和比他人更高的波动容忍度，以观察事态如何发展。 特别是考虑到许多散户以周为单位看待问题：不，如果我将收入拐点预测在2027年下半年，而现在才2026年，我的投资逻辑并没有错。 总之，短期感觉不好，但为了透明度还是想分享一下。
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.