概念词典 · 宏观
中美贸易关税
美国对中国商品加征的进口关税与出口管制，影响半导体设备、AI 芯片、稀土等关键供应链流向。
别名： 中美关税／ 中美贸易／ 关税／ tariff／ tariffs／ 美国关税／ 加征关税
是什么
中美贸易关税 包括两类：
- 进口关税：美国对中国进口商品加征额外关税
- 出口管制：禁止美国半导体设备、AI 芯片出口到中国（实体清单）
主要影响领域：
- AI 芯片：NVIDIA H100/H200 等高端 GPU 不能出口中国，催生 H20/B40 等”特供版”
- 半导体设备：ASML EUV、AMAT 沉积设备出口管制
- 稀土 / 关键矿物：稀土加工高度集中在中国
Serenity 的判断
他不是 macro 分析师，但反复在以下几个点上发声：
1. 出口管制反向促进国产替代
“禁运越严，中国国产替代越快。”
例：美国限制 EUV → 中芯国际加速 28nm 国产化 → 上海微电子、北方华创订单增加。
2. 关税效果有限论
“加征关税本身效果有限，需要切断上游供应才有效。”
意思是关税只是抬高终端价格，真正卡住产业链的是上游设备/材料禁运。
3. 稀土叙事
他多次提到 $MP MP Materials（美国稀土）作为 Trump 政府”重建本土供应链”叙事的核心受益者。Trump 政府公开持有 $MP 股权也是他常提的案例。
为什么这是宏观必须跟踪的变量
任何一次政策窗口期的关税升级 / 出口管制扩大，会立刻影响半导体设备股、AI 芯片股、稀土股的方向。即便 Serenity 不主炒宏观，他的标的池里也充满了对这些政策敏感的公司。
提到此概念的推文 (41)
按时间倒序 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
博主分享AI瓶颈板块近50%回撤，坚信长期逻辑未变并坚持持有。
感觉糟透了，近期崩盘后本月最大回撤达-49.4%。 我的投资组合主要集中在人工智能(AI)的卡脖子环节和瓶颈领域。 包括存储、光子学、机器人和上游半导体（使用杠杆），这些板块的贝塔值通常高于其他板块。但近期因崩盘已降低杠杆。 我看到很多人在嘲笑这次下跌或AI概念股，声称显而易见： - “AI是泡沫” - “存储/韩综指是泡沫” - “光子学是泡沫” - “人形机器人不会有前途” - “新云厂商将被Meta等超大规模云厂商取代” 还有一堆散户和机器人喊着“清仓，永远别想恢复”。 但我坚信所有这些主题都有结构性收入增长或技术变革作为支撑。 此前当政府威胁实施全球关税时，我也经历过类似的回撤，随后市场实现了复苏。 我个人拥有更长的投资视野和比他人更高的波动容忍度，以观察事态如何发展。 特别是考虑到许多散户以周为单位看待问题：不，如果我将收入拐点预测在2027年下半年，而现在才2026年，我的投资逻辑并没有错。 总之，短期感觉不好，但为了透明度还是想分享一下。
英文原文
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
-
特朗普应修复盟友关系，利用海外供应链优势赢得贸易战。
特朗普政府现在可能意识到，赢得贸易战的关键在于前沿供应链，如量子计算(Quantum)、人工智能(AI)和机器人(Robotics)，而非廉价的耐克袜子出口。鉴于$ASML、$TOWA、$LPK、味之素(Ajinomoto)等关键企业位于日本、欧盟、台湾、韩国等地，且各国掌握着使这些行业运转所需的垄断技术和瓶颈环节，而这些都恰好位于美国境外。对所有合作伙伴加征关税显然不是个好主意。但在我看来，现在修复关系并通过合作伙伴将全球供应链武器化以换取更好的贸易协议，为时未晚。
英文原文
Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars: Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics. Not cheap Nike sock exports. With $ASML , $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto, over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards… Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work. Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US. Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea. But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.
-
称中国曾管制日本上游InP衬底以阻断西方AI光子供应链，建议美日反制。
回复 @TigerMeditation：兄弟，中国在1月我发 $AXTI 帖后，字面上对日本上游 InP 衬底实施出口管制，以阻断西方 AI 光子供应链。 也许美国/日本该用便宜内裤关税以外的方式反击了？
英文原文
@TigerMeditation Bro China literally export controlled Japan on upstream InP substrates back in Jan, after my $AXTI post, to halt Western AI photonic supply chains. Maybe it's time for US/Japan to fight back, in ways other than tariffs on cheap underwear??
-
建议美日将Ulvac列入出口管制，以打击中国人形机器人稀土磁体设备瓶颈。
一个随手想法： 美国政府/日本应该把 Ulvac（6728）列入出口管制名单，让它们停止向中国发货。 这样就能扰乱中国整个人形机器人计划（因为它是“军民两用应用”）。 作为对上游 InP/稀土相关出口管制的报复。 对袜子出口加45%关税没什么用，但扰乱中国机器人计划，确实有用。 Ulvac 是日本在钕磁体上的主要 chokepoint。 “Ulvac 长期通过其中国子公司制造稀土磁体真空熔炼炉。” 所以也许该让这件事停下来？ 如果它们停止出货，你可以打断宇树和其他中国人形机器人量产供应链。 只有当中国允许稀土出口重新流动时，出口才能继续。
英文原文
Just a shower thought: US Gov/Japan should put Ulvac (6728) on the export control list so they stop shipping to China. That way you can disrupt China's entire humanoid program (since it's "Dual Use Military Applications"). As retaliation over upstream InP/rare earth related export controls. Adding 45% tariffs on sock exports won't do much, but disrupting China's robotics program, sure. Ulvac is Japan's major chokepoint over neodymium magnets. "Ulvac has long manufactured rare-earth magnet vacuum melting furnaces through its Chinese subsidiary". So maybe put that to rest? If they stop shipping, you can break Unitree's and other humanoid mass production supply chains in China. And only if they allow rare earth exports to start flowing again, then exports can continue.
-
称自己点出AI供应链国家级漏洞并做多AXTI，6个月后进入白宫短缺名单和中美贸易谈判。
我字面上点出了 AI 供应链中的国家级漏洞。 然后做多了 $AXTI 这个准垄断。 当时所有人都在质疑我。 猜怎么着，朋友：6个月后，它出现在白宫短缺清单上，并成为美中贸易谈判的主要议题之一。
英文原文
I literally called out a national vulnerability in the AI supply chain. Then went long on the quasi-monopoly in $AXTI. While everyone was doubting me. Guess what anon: it’s on the White House shortage list and one of the major talking points of US-China trade talks 6M later. https://t.co/mVX0vJ5EuD
-
分析对华加征关税效果有限，需切断上游供应才有效。
@lorddaws 我认为中国不会太在意美国对廉价$LU LU仿品或袜子进口征收45%关税这种事。 如果你能通过切断台湾、欧洲、韩国、日本等地区向上游供应商的出口，来完全扼住他们整个人工智能/机器人/太空项目，那确实会有效果。
英文原文
@lorddaws I don't think China cares so much about US slapping 45% tariffs on cheap $LULU ripoffs or sock imports. If you completely freeze their entire AI/robotics/space programs by choking off upstream vendors over in Taiwan, Europe, Korea, Japan, and other exports to China, sure.
-
用 InP substrate 说明供应链控制应该瞄准上游
这次 $AXTI / InP substrate 出口管制正好说明： 特朗普的 America First 政策应该聚焦在保护欧洲、日本、韩国这些地方的供应链。 并且把它们武器化来对付中国。 单靠美国本身当然有筹码，但把日本、欧盟、韩国一起用起来，筹码会大得多。 如果让日本切断中国的人形机器人项目 / 上游化学品供应，再让欧盟切断中国的 photonics 项目： 他们会为了 substrates 和稀土让步。 你真正需要做的是掐住他们前沿产业发展的良率，或者直接卡制造这些组件的能力。 而不是只拿 40% 关税吓唬他们别再出口廉价商品。
英文原文
This $AXTI / InP substrate export controls is EXACTLY why: Trump's America 1st policies should focus around securing its supply chains over in EU/Japan/KR. And weaponizing it against China. US alone has leverage, but everyone together has extreme leverage. If you use Japan to cut off China's humanoid program / upstream chemicals and leverage EU to cut off China's photonics program: They'll bend for substrates and rare earths. You literally need to break their frontier industry development over yields or actually manufacturing the components. Not just threaten 40% tariffs to stop them from shipping cheap goods.
-
批评特朗普破坏全球能源供应链，强调美国离不开全球供应链。
特朗普知道自己在干什么吗…… 他只是为了追着伊朗领导层玩打地鼠，就把全世界的能源供应链炸了？ 这不只是“美国没事”这么简单。 你猜上游前驱体、先进半导体以及其他东西都是在哪造的？ 现在几乎没有什么是真正“美国制造”的。 我们完全依赖日本、台湾、马来西亚、韩国这些伙伴提供稀土到晶圆代工的一切。 这场战争的明确受益者是： 1. 以色列 2. 俄罗斯 甚至从长期看，伊朗也可能受益，因为他们可以借助中国重建基础设施，而且油价 / 海峡关税也让他们更有钱了。 我们本来应该增强所有盟友的实力，而不是把他们全都坑了去帮俄罗斯和以色列。 “美国优先”政策的残酷现实是：它也包括保护美国的全球供应链。 现在还不算太晚： 但你不能一边把全世界的能源贸易都炸了，一边又说只有美国自己就行。
英文原文
Does Trump know… He just blew up the world’s energy supply chains for attempting wack-a-mole with Iranian leadership? It’s not just about “US is fine”. Guess where all the upstream precursors, advanced semiconductors, and others are made? Almost nothing is actually “Made in America” yet. We completely rely on all our partners from Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea for rare earths to foundries. The clear beneficiaries of this War: 1. Israel 2. Russia Maybe even Iran long term since they can use China to rebuild infrastructure and they’re richer from oil / tariffs on the strait. We’re supposed to be strengthening all our allies, not ******* them over to help Russia and Israel. Harsh reality is “America First” policy also includes securing America’s global supply chains. It’s still not too late: But you can’t just blow up the rest of the world’s energy trade, then just go out and say US alone is fine.
-
觉得市场正经历类似全球关税冲击，资金在计价流动性和能源风险。
@HimarsoClock 我们已经到了 4 月那种全球关税冲击的阶段，而且 $MSFT 已经到 350 美元了…… 市场大概正在计价流动性冲击和能源中断。不过就像去年 4 月看到的那样， 一切都可能因为一个 TACO 而改变。
英文原文
@HimarsoClock We’ve reached April global tariff shock with $MSFT already at $350… Markets are probably pricing in liquidity shock and energy disruption. But again as seen with April last year Everything can chance with a Taco.
-
伊朗袭击致LNG暴涨引发韩股暴跌，但AI需求强劲使三星/SK海力士可转嫁成本，视为买入机会。
关于 $EWY / KOSPI 暴跌以及这是否是三星/SK海力士的买入机会的思考： 这看起来是一个明确的买入机会。 尤其是因为投资者误解了2026年并非2022年（俄乌冲突）的局面。AI从根本上改变了内存需求，与2022年消费电子低迷时期不同，当时三星/SK海力士不得不自行承担运营支出(OPEX)。 韩国历史上最大单日跌幅的主要催化剂是伊朗无人机袭击卡塔尔能源公司(Ras Laffan)综合体。 卡塔尔约占全球液化天然气(LNG)供应的~20%。 结果： -> 荷兰TTF（欧洲天然气）：+46% -> 亚洲现货LNG：+39% -> 美国天然气：+4.16%（正常） LNG飙升是下跌的催化剂，因为韩国严重依赖进口LNG，暴露度极高。 出于对通胀性能源冲击的恐惧，投资者激进抛售韩国科技股，叠加10倍杠杆三星/SK海力士的去杠杆效应。 导致： -> 三星电子下跌9.79%。 -> SK海力士股价暴跌11.12%。 -> $EWY（韩国期货）今日下跌14.49%。 人们担心重演2022年俄乌战争导致LNG价格上涨，韩国电力公社(KEPCO)停止吸收亏损后，韩国工业电价上涨约70%。 仅2022年，三星国内设施就消耗了约28,000 GWh的电力。 电价上涨使三星年度运营支出(OPEX)增加约2万亿韩元（超过14亿美元），SK海力士增加超过1万亿韩元。 这种前所未有的运营支出激增发生在最糟糕的时机。 2022年底，半导体行业进入残酷的周期性低迷。后疫情时代PC和智能手机需求暴跌，导致DRAM和NAND闪存严重供过于求。 然而，2026年完全不同： 与2022年低迷期面临能源成本上升相比： AI对内存的需求完全史无前例。27日有报道称三星/SK海力士再次上调DRAM价格。 $SNDK的NAND需求如此之高，以至于产能分配需要提前3年预订。 需求看不到尽头，直到2028年都没有缓解迹象。 相比之下，2022年笔记本电脑和智能手机的消费端已经面临低迷，内存制造商无法转嫁成本（并承担了巨额OPEX账单）。这导致了上次的大幅修正。 由于2026年全球AI芯片短缺如此严重，他们将无缝地将高昂的公用事业账单转嫁给供应链下游。 由于供应严重受限，三星和SK海力士主导市场条款。大型科技超大规模云服务商（微软、Meta、Google、Amazon）陷入AI军备竞赛。他们目前对价格高度不敏感，优先考虑确保供应量而非讨价还价。 因此，这看起来是一个明确的买入机会，尤其是鉴于预测范围： 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对三星： 2026年：~1820亿美元 vs. ~2108亿美元 2027年：~2351亿美元 vs. ~3337亿美元 摩根士丹利 | 麦格理对SK海力士： 2026年：~1329亿美元 vs. ~1905亿美元 2027年：~1670亿美元 vs. ~3128亿美元 此次抛售看起来像是出于对2022年俄乌冲突的恐惧以及10倍杠杆工具带来的极端杠杆进行的即时去风险化。 但与2022年不同，当时笔记本电脑和消费需求已经低迷，LNG飙升导致三星/SK海力士买单： 这次成本转嫁给了超大规模云服务商，因为需求太高。 人们总是将KOSPI比作白银，但区别在于前者拥有惊人的运营收入，在牛市情景下，SK海力士等公司两年的收入 alone 就会超过其市值。 三星/SK海力士的下跌看起来是一个明确的买入机会，因为他们的运营收入可能会轻松超越任何短期波动。
英文原文
Thoughts on the $EWY / KOSPI crash and whether it's a buying opportunity for Samsung/Sk Hynix: This looks like a clear buying opportunity. Especially as investors misunderstand that 2026 is not 2022 (Ukraine-Russia) conflicts. AI has fundamentally changed the demand for memory, compared to the 2022 downturn in consumer electronics, where Samsung/Sk Hynix also footed opex costs. The main catalyst for one of the largest single-day drops in Korean history was Iran drone striking QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex. Qatar is roughly ~20% of the global LNG supply. Results: -> Dutch TTF (Euro Natural Gas): +46% -> Asian Spot LNG: + 39% -> U.S. Natural Gas: +4.16% (fine) The LNG spike was the catalyst for the drop as South Korea is materially exposed as it relies on imported LNG. Fearing this inflationary energy shock, investors aggressively dumped South Korean tech equities, combined with deleveraging of 10x Samsung/Sk Hynix. Sending -> Samsung Electronics down by 9.79%. -> SK Hynix shares sank by 11.12%. and the $EWY (KR futures) down 14.49% today. Everyone is fearing the 2022 incident with Russia-Ukraine war increasing LNG prices, causing industrial electricity tariffs in South Korea climbed by roughly 70% after KEPCO stopped abosring losses. In 2022 alone, Samsung's domestic facilities consumed approximately 28,000 GWh of electricity. The tariff hikes added an estimated KRW 2 trillion (over $1.4 billion USD) to Samsung's annual operating expenses and over KRW 1 trillion for SK Hynix. This unprecedented spike in operational expenses (OPEX) hit at the exact worst possible time. In late 2022, the semiconductor industry entered a brutal cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic demand for PCs and smartphones plummeted, leading to a massive oversupply of DRAM and NAND flash. However, 2026 is completely different: Compared to 2022 that faced increasing energy costs during a downturn: AI demand for memory is completely unprecedented. On the 27th, there were reports of DRAM hikes again from Samsung/Sk Hynix. Demand for NAND prices from $SNDK have been so high for capacity allocation that they've been taking 3 year pre-orders in advance. There is no end to demand in sight, and no relief way until 2028. Comparing this to 2022, where consumer segments for laptops and smartphones were already facing a downturn, memory makers could not pass on the costs (and tanked opex bill). That caused a major correction last time. Because the global AI chip shortage is so acute in 2026, they will seamlessly pass their inflated utility bills down the supply chain. Because supply is severely constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix dictate the market terms. Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) are locked in an AI arms race. They are highly price-insensitive right now and prioritize securing volume over haggling. As a result, this looks like a clear buying opportunity, especially as projections range from: Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD The selloff looks like an immediate de-risking from fears over 2022 Ukraine-Russia-conflicts, combined with extreme leverage from 10x instruments. But unlike 2022, where laptops and consumer demand were already facing a downturn and LNG spikes caused Samsung/SK Hynix to foot the bill: This time it's passed onto hyperscaler costs because demand is too high. People always compare KOSPI to silver, but the difference is one has whopping operational income, where in a bull-case scenario, 2 years of income alone would exceed their market cap of companies like SK Hynix. The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.
-
认为COIN接近4月关税底部$171，决定在此价位买入。
@dexapiko 我们正接近 $COIN 在 4 月关税(Tariff)底部的 $171 价位。此前唯一一次触及该水平是在 2024 年 9 月，当时价格为 $150。我在此价位买入。https://t.co/IMqRE8nii2
英文原文
@dexapiko We’re close to the April Tariff bottom at $171 now for $COIN. Only other time it hit that was September 2024 for $150. I’m a buyer here https://t.co/IMqRE8nii2
-
韩美关税升级致三星SK海力士陷入不确定性循环
特朗普将关税从15%提高到25%，专门因为韩国尚未批准去年10月的“历史性贸易协议”。正如你提到的，主要目标是“汽车、汽车零部件、木材和制药”。他的帖子提到了“所有其他互惠关税”，这可能为其他所有商品创造了一个“兜底”场景。特朗普几乎每两周就会发出威胁。这紧随霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在16日（亚洲时间17日）对内存产品发出的100%关税最后通牒。韩国表示尚未收到关于关税的正式通知。这仅仅表明三星/SK海力士陷入了“TACO”循环，不太确定实际会发生什么。
英文原文
Trump raised tariffs from 15% to 25% specifically because the SK hasn't ratified the "Historic Trade Agreement" from last Oct. Primary targets as you mentioned was "automobiles, auto parts, lumber, and pharma. His post mentioned "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS," which possibly creates a "catch-all" scenario for everything else. Trump issues threats almost every other week. And this is just following Howard Lutnick's 100% tariff ultimatum on memory products on the 16th (Asia 17th). South Korea has said it has not yet received formal notification that the tariffs. This is just showing Samsung/SK Hynix are stuck in the "TACO" loop, not quite sure what will actually happen.
-
看好美光因关税豁免和补贴优势，优于面临地缘压力的韩系厂商。
$MU 看起来是个很棒的做多标的！话虽如此，三星电子和 SK 海力士仍然是我最喜欢的持仓。看起来美国基本上是在利用强烈的关税威胁，迫使三星和 SK 海力士将下一代晶圆厂迁至美国本土（正如得克萨斯州 370 亿美元的三星工厂和印第安纳州 39 亿美元的 SK 海力士工厂所示）。但最近的新闻看起来像是关税逆风下的“TACO”局面（即关税行动取消操作）。相比之下，$MU 享有关税豁免 + 获得《芯片法案》补贴，且不会每天面临来自特朗普的地缘政治威胁。
英文原文
$MU looks like a great long! This being said Samsung Electronics and Sk Hynix are still two of my favorite positions. It looks like the US is essentially using strong tariff threats to force Samsung and SK Hynix to move their next generation of fabs to US soil (as seen with $37B Samsung plant in Texas and SK Hynix’s $3.9B Indiana). But recent news does look like a TACO situation with tariff headwinds. Whereas $MU is tariff-exempt + gets CHIPS Act subsidies, and doesn't have constant geopolitical threats from Trump every day.
-
美光凭借美国制造护城河及存储超级周期，估值优于同业。
“美国制造”是美光($MU)和英特尔($INTC)拥有的最强大护城河(Moat)。 以下是美光的最新动态： 继25日NAND和DRAM涨价预期上调后： $MU的前向市盈率(Forward P/E)可能在~8.2-8.5倍左右，同时毛利率(Gross Margins)维持在75-77%。 随后是特朗普和卢特尼克的新评论： - “任何想建设存储芯片的企业只有两个选择：要么支付100%的关税，要么在美国本土建厂”——卢特尼克（在美光存储芯片工厂，1月17日） - “特朗普将对韩国进口商品关税提高至25%”——（1月27日） 这是一个非常有趣的动态，因为美光作为美国的冠军企业，仍能通过海外扩张获得税收优惠。而三星或SK海力士的类似扩张则被视为面临关税风险。 此外，今天的新消息显示美光正在新加坡以240亿美元的投资加速NAND生产。 所以大家都在问，为什么$MU的估值高于其他存储芯片制造商？ 我们正亲眼目睹美国“美国制造”护城河与“存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)”中无休止的涨价改善利润表共同发挥作用。 白宫正在尽其所能确保其本土领导者取得成功。
英文原文
"Made in America" is the greatest moat $MU and $INTC have. Here's the recent developments with Micron: From NAND + DRAM hike est. on the 25th: $MU forward P/E would likely be ~8.2-8.5 with gross margins sitting at 75-77%. This is followed by new comments from Trump and Lutnick: - “Everyone who wants to build memory has two choices: They can pay a 100 per cent tariff, or they can build in America" - Lutnick (Micron Technology memory chip plant, Jan 17) - "Trump raises US tariffs on South Korea imports to 25%" - (Jan 27th) It's a fascinating dynamic as Micron still gets tax benefits through overseas expansion as America's champion. Whereas similar expansions by Samsung or SK Hynix are viewed through the lens of tariff risk. This is coupled with new news today that Micron was ramping up NAND production in Singapore with $24B. So everyone was wondering, why $MU was valued higher than other memory makers? We're seeing the the USA "Made in America" moat live in action together with "The Memory Supercycle" of endless price hikes improving bottom lines. The White House is doing everything it can to make its domestic leaders succeed.
-
发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
-
分析美光因本土优势及需求结构性转变的看多逻辑。
这只是一个针对 $MU 的极度简化的看多情景。当然也存在看空因素，例如 @MarkosAAIG 提到的 $NVDA Rubin 在 HBM4 认证方面的执行风险。$INTC 的逻辑与此类似，美光位于美国。美国政府可能对海力士/三星征收关税以推动本土使用，加上超 60 亿美元的赠款、数百亿美元的税收抵免，以及超大规模云厂商对本土供应链的需求，即使出现延迟，美光也拥有巨大优势。在需求端，他们 2026 年及 2027 年的订单已售罄。我认为这是一次结构性需求转变，而非周期性波动，尽管人们可以有不同的解读。
英文原文
So this is just an oversimplified bull case scenario for $MU. There's obviously bear cases too, one being HBM4 qualification execution risk for stuff like $NVDA Rubin that @MarkosAAIG mentioned. Similar thesis with $INTC here, Micron is in the US. US government likely tarrifs on hynix/samsung to push for domestic usage, $6B+ in grants, and tens of billions in tax credits, and hyperscalers wanting a domestic supply chain gives Micron a pretty big edge even if there's delays. As with the demand side, they're sold out for 2026 and into 2027. I see a structural demand shift, not a cycle this time around, people can interpret it differently though.
-
市场反复受关税影响，作者认为历史重演，但也承认可能看错。
@FahadMaow 市场正在应验这句谚语： “一次被骗，是你愚蠢；被关税骗了50次，是我愚蠢” 我们一次又一次地看到 TACO 剧本重演。鉴于中期选举和以往的历史，我认为这次也不会例外。 当然，我也可能错了。
英文原文
@FahadMaow Markets are following the idiom: "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me 50 times with tariffs, shame on me" We’ve seen the TACO playbook over and over again. I don’t think this time is any different given midterms and previous history Could be wrong though.
-
特朗普关税恐慌是估值礼物，国防与本土AI供应链将受益于政策博弈。
关于$OSS -6.1%至$ONDS -4.85%下跌引发的潜在市场崩盘恐慌很多。但随着市场转红，特朗普已开始降级局势。从特朗普关税的历史来看，我们知道一件事：特朗普非常在意市场： - $AVAV的复制者（Replicator）Switchblade无人机项目 至 - 复制者2（Replicator 2）反无人机系统，$AIRO、$ONDS等可能受益。 1.5万亿美元的拟议国防支出保持不变。 AI建设中的 - $LITE、$COHR在$GOOGL和超大规模ASIC建设中的角色 或 - $INTC、$SKY在美国本土硬件中的角色 均未改变。我们正见证历史上最大的无人机、关键材料储备、AI建设、太空扩张及“美国制造”供应链的扩张。 我认为这种波动往往是“估值礼物”，因为这些都是空头威胁。欧美领导人之间的泄露消息显示对话正在进行。特朗普只是在用“极限施压”话术看能谈判到什么。当然，特朗普将标普500视为其实时支持率，这就是为什么他在中期选举前迫使大幅降息。随着美股隔夜转红，我们已看到局势缓和。我们很可能会看到完整的“贸易协议达成”，以便他宣称成功->市场创历史新高。
英文原文
There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from $OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON. But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red. From the history of Trump's tariffs We know one thing. Trump cares too much about the market: $1.5T in proposed defense spending from - $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs to - Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others. is still the same. Nothing in the AI buildout from - $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout or - $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware has changed. We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history. My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place. Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated. And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections. As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already. And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.
-
格陵兰关税引发恐慌，建议逢低买入美国防、关键材料及本土半导体股。
美股期货因格陵兰关税新闻下跌。 许多欧洲股市热门股现下跌： $ONDS (-8.55%) 或 $RKLB (-7.65%)。 以下是如何从该局势中潜在获利的方法： 第一层：供应链 这是与北约盟友的争端。这威胁到供应链。 许多美国国防系统依赖欧洲组件（德国光学器件、英国/荷兰芯片）。格陵兰是稀土元素(REEs)的巨大潜在来源。 格陵兰受阻意味着美国必须依赖国内来源。 与欧洲的贸易战给国防承包商和其他部门带来混乱。 如果下跌，美国关键材料供应商如 $MP 或瓶颈对冲如 $LPTH 将是良好的逢低买入机会。 第二层：美国直接冲突/战争 战争板块如 ($AVAV 或 $KTOS) 实际上极具韧性，因为从根本上说，争端涉及美国国家安全。 欧洲（莱茵金属、萨博）国防股正在反弹，而美国（如 $ONDS）遭抛售。美国代码被恐惧的欧洲散户投资者错误定价。 国防股可能在“避险”恐慌初期下跌，但它们实际上最终成为与北约盟友紧张关系的主要受益者。（特朗普的事你无法预知）。 如果隔夜或盘前出现大幅下跌，如果发生无差别抛售，这可能是一个良好的买入机会。 第三层：美国半导体供应链/晶圆厂 与欧洲（特别是荷兰/ASML 和德国/蔡司）的贸易战严重损害半导体供应链。 在所有这些痛苦中，垂直整合的“美国制造”硬件公司将受益最大。 如果下跌，像 $COHR、$AMKR 或美国晶圆厂如 $INTC、$GFS 这样的公司可能是良好的逢低买入机会。 这更微妙，因为市场认为它们仍然有风险，因为许多“国内”玩家仍依赖欧洲进口（ASML 光刻、蔡司光学）来运营。 然而，这是关于供应链主权的美国国家安全，这是对美国政府不会让这些公司失败（例如英特尔的国家安全豁免）的美国政策的非对称性赌注。 可能避免： 科技/SaaS 的接飞刀，因为它们被视为“风险资产”，通常被抛售最多，除非情况极端。 _ 鉴于流动性低，欧洲市场可能正在恐慌性抛售至真空。 套利机器人可能会迫使美国隔夜价格下跌以匹配欧洲/期货的“隐含价格”。 然而，如果实际受益于该局势的板块出现跳空低开，这可能是极好的机会。 方向上，市场可能会看跌。 但预计许多这些 -7% 或 -9% 的数字将恢复到合理水平如 -1.5%，有些甚至翻正。
英文原文
US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news. Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down: $ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%). Here's how to potentially profit off the situation: Tier 1: Supply Chains This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply chains. Many US defense systems rely on European components (optics from Germany, chips from UK/Netherlands). Greenland is a massive potential source of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The blockage of Greenland means the US must rely on domestic sources. A trade war with Europe creates chaos for defense contractors and other sectors. US Critical Material providers like $MP or bottleneck hedges like $LPTH would be a good dip buying opportunity if they drop. Tier 2: US Direct Conflict/War War sectors like ( $AVAV or $KTOS ) are actually extremely resilient since fundamentally, the dispute goes back to US National Security. EU (Rheinmetall, SAAB) defense stocks are rallying, while US ( eg. $ONDS ) got sold off. US tickers are being mispriced by fearful European retail investors. Defense stocks might drop initially during "risk-off" panic but they actually end up being the primary beneficiaries of the tension with NATO allies. (you never know with Trump). Any large drops (if they happen) overnight or pre-market, this might be a good buying opportunity if there's an indiscriminate selloff. Tier 3: US Semi Supply Chains/Foundry A trade war with Europe (specifically the Netherlands/ASML and Germany/Zeiss) hurts the semiconductor supply chain immensely. Through all this pain, the vertically integrated "Made in America" hardware companies would benefit the most. Companies like $COHR, $AMKR, or US foundries like $INTC, $GFS might be a good dip buy if they drop. This is more nuanced since markets think they're still risky because a lot of the "domestic" players still rely on European imports (ASML lithography, Zeiss optics) to operate. However, this is US national security for supply chain sovereignty and this is an asymmetrical bet on US policy that they won't let these companies fail (eg. National Security Exemptions for Intel). Probably avoid: Falling knives on Tech/SaaS since they're considered "risk assets" and usually get sold off the most, unless it goes extreme. _ European markets are likely panic-selling into a void, given low liquidity. The arbitrage bots might force US overnight prices down to match the "implied prices" of European/Futures. However, this might be the excellent opportunity if there's a gap-down on names on sectors that actually benefit from the situation. Directionality, markets are likely going to see red. But expect many of these -7% or -9% numbers to recover to reasonable levels like -1.5%, with some flipping positive.
-
警告勿盲目买入PLSR，因氦3分离技术未成熟且成本不明。
特朗普的关税政策对我来说是个谜。 另外提醒一下那些认为应该无脑冲入 $PLSR 的人： - 没人知道储层中氦-3（Helium-3）的储量 - 从氦-4（Helium-4）中分离氦-3 的成本可能高得离谱（没人知道成本结构），甚至可能根本不值得尝试 他们实际上说过“目前不存在大规模分离氦-3 和氦-4 的商业技术”。 这就好比从海水中分离盐分来制造纯净水并出售。 因此，尽管坐拥潜在的金矿，其市值仍仅为 1.4 亿美元（如果他们真的尝试，预计会有大量稀释）。
英文原文
Trump's tariff policies are an engima to me. Also just a heads up for people who think they should ape into $PLSR - Nobody knows the volume of helium-3 in the reservoir - separating helium-3 from helium-4 might be insanely expensive (nobody knows cost structure) and it might be worthless to attempt They've actually said "no commercial technology currently exists to separate He-3 from He-4 at scale" For example separating salt from the ocean to make purified water and selling that. Hence why it's still $140m MC despite sitting on a potential gold mine (and if they do attempt it expect a TON of dilution).
-
比特币市场平稳，市场已适应关税，建议忽略噪音继续持有。
@SukhTatla 比特币市场是一个相当不错的代理指标，价格几乎没有下跌。 我认为市场似乎不再太在意关税，因为关税已成为日常现象。 美国经济增长势头强劲，所以我个人建议继续持有并忽略噪音。
英文原文
@SukhTatla Bitcoin markets are a pretty good proxy, there’s almost no price drops. I don’t think markets seem to care much about tariffs anymore since this is a daily occurrence. US economic growth is an absolute powerhouse, so i personally would just stay long and ignore the noise
-
ChatGPT入局助推机器人规模化拐点，$SSYS因结构框架优势受益。
问得好！以下是时间线及变化： -> 特朗普当选后的“美国优先”政策 -> 中美贸易紧张局势，促使像 Bambu 这样的公司转向美国供应链（$SSYS 是认证垄断者）。 -> 2024-2025年左右，波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)从液压版 Atlas 转向电动版 -> 从重型液压系统转变为使用 $SSYS 的轻量化结构框架(lightweight structural frames)。 -> Meta 人形机器人等其他研究原型也开始效仿。 -> 2024-2025年人形机器人/机器人领域尚无规模化。 -> ChatGPT 今天宣布进军机器人领域（他们通常处于领先地位，例如确保内存容量） -> 我们现在可能已经触及机器人行业的拐点，此前处于原型阶段（使用 $SSYS 作为轻量化结构框架）的所有公司现在开始规模化。 -> $SSYS 受益于机器人的规模化。
英文原文
Amazing question! So here's the timeline and what changed: -> America first policies after Trump election -> China-US trade tensions, led to companies going to US supply chains ( $SSYS is certification monopoly) from companies like Bambu. -> 2024-2025ish, Boston Dynamics pivoted from hydraulic Atlas to electric version -> changed from heavy hydraulics to lightweight structural frames using $SSYS. -> Other research prototypes from Meta Humanoids to others started following suit. -> There was no scale on humanoids/robotics in 2024-2025. -> ChatGPT announced their push into robotics today (they're usually leading the charge, eg. securing memory capacity) -> We've now likely hit the inflection point for robotics, where all these companies formerly in the prototyping stage (with $SSYS as the lightweight structural frame) are now scaling. -> $SSYS benefits robotics at scale.
-
质疑SMM图表代表性，指出海外采购成本远高于国内现货价。
嗯，那张SMM图表不只显示现货国内价格吗？考虑到许可证、关税和配额溢价等因素，我相当确定超大规模数据中心（hyperscalers）无法以那些价格采购。我很好奇你是否有关于西方公司支付价格与国内价格对比的更多信息，以证明这种价格分化（bifurcation）不会发生。
英文原文
Hmm, isn’t that SMM chart just showing spot domestic price though with the 10% price increase? I’m pretty sure hyperscalers can’t buy at those prices accounting for stuff like permits, tariffs, and allocation premium. I’m curious if you have more info about what Western companies pay compared to domestic rates to show that bifurcation wouldn’t occur
-
重申NBIS长期看涨至250美元，对期权亏损致歉。
是的，我一个月前说 $NBIS 即使在 130 美元时也是极强的买入标的，这一观点我至今仍坚持，如果它交易在 125 美元我会买入。我认为跌至 75 美元就像 $HOOD 在关税恐慌中跌至 28 美元然后随着散户投降涨至 100 美元以上那样。如果人们跟随我的 Nebius 论点使用本月到期的期权，我感到非常内疚。我自己也因下跌在 3 月/5 月到期的期权上损失惨重。但中长期我相信一旦他们在 2026 年实现管理层预测，$NBIS 轻松突破 250 美元。
英文原文
Yep, you’re correct when I said that $NBIS is an extremely strong buy even at $130 a month ago. I still maintain that today, and would be buying Nebius if it were trading at $125. I believe the drop to $75 is like the moment when $HOOD dropped to $28 during tariff fears then went to $100+ when retail capitulated. I do feel extremely guilty if people followed my thesis on Nebius with options that expired this month. I lost a lot of money myself so far on March/May expiry options from the drop. But medium-long term I believe $NBIS easily blows past $250 once they achieve management projections in 2026
-
成长股因宏观恐慌错杀，机构逢低吸纳，是最佳买入窗口。
目前市场正目睹大多数成长股下跌。 过去5天： · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) 已失去近期涨幅。为何？ 目前我们看到机械性对冲下行，混合着类似加密市场的实时级联保证金清算。 这还混合了基于宏观的投降式抛售，包括对12月降息概率的半合理担忧、政府停摆导致的数据缺失，以及多家对冲基金发布的AI看空报告。 最重要的一点是：尽管许多个股基本面正在改善。 我们看到像： $NBIS 将ARR指引从分析师预期的$4B上调至$7-9B，本周却跌去26.85%。 我们也看到 $SNAP 在发布$4B惊喜的Perplexity交易后，吹爆营收指引，却失去了财报后的所有涨幅。 此时，我们正接近12月“圣诞老人行情”前的底部，机构正在暗池/大宗交易中买入杠杆交易者的比特币清算资金，转向$NBIS等优质股票。 如果未来增长和基本面放缓，此次下跌后的持续抛售是合理的。 然而，如果许多成长股的基本面完好，这次市场重置是自4月关税抛售以来，从$KRKNF到$ALAB的成长股最佳买入机会。 正如Robinhood [ $HOOD ]数据显示，散户在$IREN等热门股上，在$45-$50底部大量卖出，但在$MSFT交易后$80顶部买入。 散户往往在顶部追高，但在下跌后底部投降。 这是伟大的重置，而非导致熊市的持续崩盘。保证金清算后及弱势筹码向长期投资者转移，将带来新高。 话说回来：你认为目前被抛售最严重的高Beta股票是哪只？
英文原文
Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now. In the past 5 days: · Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%) · Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]: $42.50 (-19.35%) · Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%) · Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%) have lost their recent gains. Why? Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets. This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds. The most important thing to note is that: This is despite improving fundamentals in many individual stocks. We've seen companies like: $NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week. and we've seen $SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal. At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades. If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted. However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off. As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80. Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop. This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs. That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?
-
宏观利好预期下，建议布局基本面稳健的高Beta成长股。
网上有很多只发标题党的帖子。 我通常尝试在标题之上连接线索，并补充“为什么”（因为它能推动市场）。 关于新宏观环境的TLDR（对$NBIS、$IREN等高Beta股看涨）： 1⃣ 结束政府停摆的协议正在成型 - Axios（政府停摆可能在~5天内结束） 评论：过去一两个小时内，事件合约赔率从27%跳升至54%。我们正在定价近期解决。 • 政府支出恢复后，流动性回流。 • 市场重新定价更高的GDP增长。 • 消费者支出立即回升。 • 不确定性消退（市场讨厌不确定性）。 结果 → 预期当风险偏好回归时，高Beta和周期性股票表现良好。 2️⃣ 向美国纳税人提议$2,000“关税红利” 评论：感觉像是COVID刺激的迷你版。那些存款引发了零售支出的最快跳跃，人们用那笔钱购买从比特币到英雄联盟皮肤的一切。但这至少来自关税。 • 对资产有利：更多资金流入经济。 • 可能导致通胀：需求压力增加，美联储后期可能反击。 • 短期：对风险资产和成长股极度积极。中长期：可能因通胀和美联储收紧而适得其反。 • 此类举措通常旨在短期内点燃市场，利好任何高成长标的。 结果 → 预期在正式重开前抢跑，并在确认后飙升。 你可以看到像$ETH这样的资产因上述两者的结合开始从$3300->$3500恢复，作为一个例子。 再次强调，我预期了像#2这样的情况，仅仅是因为明年中期选举临近。执政党如果市场表现良好通常会连任（所以我预期像#2 + 施压美联储降息，所以市场上涨）。 当然，这只是新消息+猜测，鉴于决策的波动性，不一定是事实lol。但总体上关注那些回调但基本面仍在增长的股票，例如$NBIS、$RDDT、$ALAB等。
英文原文
Lot of headline-only posters out there. I usually try to connect the dots on top of the headlines and fill in the why (it moves markets). TLDR on the new macro setup (bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc): 1⃣ DEAL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKES SHAPE - Axios (Government shutdown likely ending within ~5 days) Commentary: Event-contract odds jumped from 27% → 54% in the past hour or two. We're pricing in a near-term resolution. • Liquidity flows back once government spending resumes. • Market reprices GDP growth higher. • Consumer spending picks up immediately. • Uncertainty fades (markets hate uncertainty). Result → Expect high-beta and cyclicals to do well when risk appetite comes back. 2️⃣ $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal to American taxpayers Commentary: Feels like a mini-version of the COVID stimulus. Those deposits triggered the fastest jumps in retail spending, people were buying everything from Bitcoin to League Skins with that. But at least this came from tariffs. • Great for assets: more money flowing into the economy. • Might lead to inflation: more demand pressure, potential Fed pushback later. • Short-term: Extremely positive for risk assets and growth names. Mid to long-term: Could backfire with inflation and the Fed tightens. • Usually moves like this aim to ignite markets in the near term, good for anything heavy growth. Result → Expect frontrunning before the official reopening and a spike once it’s confirmed. You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example. Again I expected things like #2, just due to midterms coming up next year. The party in power usually gets re-elected if markets seem to be doing well (so I'd expect stuff like #2 + fed pressured rate cuts, so markets go up). Of course this is just new news + speculation, not facts for sure given how volatile decisions are made lol. But generally focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB, etc.
-
讽刺因关税担忧而将资金从巨头转向微小纯素肉公司的逻辑。
@DeepValueBagger 认为高利润的万亿美元级公司正受到种子油关税的威胁，因此将资本轮动到防御性的$1亿市值纯素肉公司听起来很有道理。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger The argument that highly profitably trillion dollar companies are under threat from seed oil tariffs so it’s wise to rotate capital into defensive $100m vegan meat companies sounds good to me
-
基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
-
关税冲击致市场恐慌，建议现金抄底非直接受损股，作者认亏持仓。
让人想起越南的闪回。 说笑归说笑，特朗普对中国进口商品加征100%关税并限制关键软件对华出口后，市场下跌超过3.65%。 这一突发事件是理性的重新定价，但也由恐惧和追加保证金通知（margin calls）所催化（盘后，例如$IREN下跌21%，或$BTC跌至10.7万美元）。 这通常预示着增长放缓和通胀上升（降息概率降低）。 然而，Polymarket和美联储期货数据仍显示到2025年有70-72%的概率进行3次降息。明年的中期选举通常对股市有利。而且我们正接近季节性行情的尾声，这通常对股市最有利。 当然，许多股票在交火中下跌，没有任何直接暴露，例如$UNH或$DKNG（例如Draftkings与中国、进口等无关，因为它是美国体育相关的，但下跌了9.4%）。 简而言之：可能是短期的关税冲击，轻微的宏观风险，以及由恐惧引发的整体抛售，但随后将恢复。 现在市场已关闭，在流动性低、利差大的时候（如盘后/隔夜）可以赚很多钱（在早期的关税事件中，$HOOD隔夜从45美元跌至28美元，随后大幅反弹至100美元以上）。 正是由于这类随机事件，我不建议持有期权，因为头寸可能会瞬间被核爆。 如果你持有现金头寸，去为极端抛售寻找便宜货，例如$CIFR下跌16%至14美元，而不是恐慌性地卖出你自己的头寸。 否则，这类事件通常只是短期的冲击，我们可能会看到在10月下旬降息前的恢复。当然，前提是股票没有像$QLCM、$NKE、$MU、$CDNS等那样受到中国收入的实质性影响。 （我没有预料到反应的严重程度，今天损失了不少，但将持有头寸）。
英文原文
Getting Vietnam flashbacks. Jokes aside, markets dropped 3.65%+ after Trump tarrifs Chinese imports by 100% and restricts the export of critical software to China. This surprise event was rational repricing but also catalyzed by fear + margin calls (after hours, with $IREN dropping 21% for example, or $BTC dropping to $107k). What this typically foreshadows is slower growth and higher inflation (lower rate cut odds). However, Polymarket and Fed futures data still shows 70-72% of 3 rate cuts by 2025. Midterm elections next year are also generally bullish for stocks. And we're approaching end of season seasonality, which is typically the best for stocks. And of course, many stocks dropped in crossfire without any direct exposure, such as $UNH or $DKNG (eg. Draftkings has nothing to do with China, imports, etc. since it's US sports related, but fell 9.4%) TLDR: likely a short term tariff shock, mild macro risk, and a overall sell-off from fear, but into recovery. Now that markets are closed, a lot of money can be made is in times of low liquidity high-spread like after-hours/overnight (during earlier tariffs, $HOOD dropped from $45 to $28 overnight then went on a massive rally to $100+). Random events like these are why I don't recommend options as positions can be nuked up in an instant. If you have cash positions, go bargain hunting for extreme selloffs, eg. $CIFR dropping 16% to $14, instead of panic selling your own positions. Otherwise, things like these are usually short term from shock, and we'll likely see a recovery frontrunning rate cut in late October. That of course if the stock isn't materially impacted from China revenue unlike $QLCM, $NKE, $MU, $CDNS, etc. (I didn't expect the extent of the reaction, lost a decent amount today, but will hold positions).
-
吐槽 DraftKings 因无关的地缘政治因素遭恐慌性抛售。
@mrazqkuki 这确实是原因之一，但 DraftKings（一家专注于 NFL 和 NBA 的体育博彩网站）与中国毫无关系，却因稀土限制和关税下跌了 7%，这让我觉得有点好笑。显然整个大盘也在下跌，但撇开这一点，它仍在增长，却遭遇了恐慌性抛售。
英文原文
@mrazqkuki Well that’s a part of it but a 7% drop off rare earths restrictions + tariffs when Draftking, a sports betting website for NFL and NBA, has nothing to do with China made me laugh a bit. Obviously whole market went down too, but that aside it’s still growing + doomdropped