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对 CBRS 估值太高但仍看好短期波动
我不太喜欢 $CBRS，尤其是市值到了大约 900 亿到 1000 亿美元的时候。 但我喜欢这家公司。 IPO 之后因为流通盘和浮筹动态，短期内往往会出现很大的估值错位，就像 $CRCL 或 $BULL 一样。 所以我不会惊讶它会在短时间里交易到离谱估值，直到后面才修正。
英文原文
Not a fan of $CBRS, especially at ~$90B-100B MC valuations. But I do like the company. There’s a lot of short term valuation disconnects with float dynamics after IPO as seen with $CRCL or $BULL though. So would not be surprised if it ends up trading at absurd valuations for a short time until things correct.
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拆解 PayPay IPO 的基本面与估值
PayPay（$PAYP）是最新上市的公司。 如果你在想，要不要冲一下这家日本的“$PYPL / WeChat”公司，市值 118 亿美元？ 那我们来看看。 如果你去过日本，你就会知道 PayPay 到处都是。 它是日本版超级 App，涵盖支付、投资和银行业务。 下面拆一下： 2025 财年指标： 收入：2991 亿日元（约 19 亿美元） 增速：约 26.3% 净利润（GAAP）：392 亿日元（约 2.48 亿美元） 市盈率：约 44 倍 股权薪酬：几乎为 0，不像美国的 $SNAP 和 $DUOL。 看资产负债表： 合并会计让 $PAYP 的账目非常难读。 4.85 万亿日元（约 323 亿美元）的负债或客户存款被混在资产里。 但上市前净负债大约是 -4.8 亿美元，上市募资后约 4.96 亿美元。 所以资产负债表大致是净现金略偏正，但整体中性。 另外提醒一下：软银是大股东，锁定期到 2026 年 9 月才到期。 按 118 亿美元估值，它大约是 5.8 倍 PS，对一家以 26% 增速、利润率还在扩张、且几乎没有 SBC 的日本超级 App 来说，这算是正常估值，不算特别便宜，也不算离谱。 TL;DR：总体上看，$PAYP 按 118 亿美元估值并不差。 后面可能会有 IPO 热度，再叠加低流通盘效应；但如果股价再涨很多，我不会追。 也许它会像 $HOOD 一样，靠 TAM 扩张慢慢抬估值。 不过几个月后软银那类类似 ATM 的压制也会出现。 但眼下还有更便宜的错价机会，比如 $RDDT。
英文原文
PayPay ( $PAYP ) is the newest IPO. If you're wondering if you should fomo in the $PYPL / WeChat of Japan at an $11.8B MC? Let's find out. If you've ever been to Japan: PayPay is everywhere. It's the Japanese SuperApp for payments, investing, and banking. Here's a breakdown: FY 2025 metrics: Revenue: ¥299.1 billion (~$1.9 billion) Growth Rate: ~26.3% Net Income (GAAP): ¥39.2 billion (~$248 million) P/E: ~44x Stock Base Compensation: Virtually 0, unlike $SNAP and $DUOL in the US. If we look at balance sheet: Consolidated accounting makes things a nightmare when you see $PAYP ¥4.85 Trillion (~$32.3 Billion) in liabilities or customer deposits mixed into assets. But pre-IPO net debt is approximately -$480M, and post-IPO proceeds of ~$496M. So balance sheet looks roughly net cash slightly positive but neutral. Also PSA: Softbank is the majority owner, lockup expires September 2026. At $11B, it's roughly ~5.8x P/S and very profitable for a Japanese superapp growing at 26% with expanding margins and zero SBC. By US standards, this is normally valued, not exactly a screaming buy. TLDR: In general, $PAYP is not a terrible long at $11.8B. Might get some IPO hype + mixed with low float dynamics, but would not chase if it ends up a lot higher. Maybe there's some TAM expansion like $HOOD that prices it up over time. But Softbank ATM-like overhang in a few months. But there's a lot better mispriced choices out there like $RDDT right now.
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总结十条研究股票时常见误区
我在 X 上一遍又一遍看到的 10 个常见谬误。 也是我自己做研究时最重要的警惕项之一： 1. 处在“拥挤”交易里的名字，比如 $LITE 或 $COHR，并不意味着这些票不会继续涨。 （看看 Nvidia 从 2022 到 2026 年就知道了。） 2. 不要把供应链里的瓶颈和关键公司（比如 SpaceX 或 Nvidia）直接等同于股价回报。 真正重要的是它如何转化为实质性的经营利润。 我提 $AXTI 的原因，就是它大概率能因这个瓶颈涨价。 3. 内幕卖出是极端噪音。 我永远不会拿这个去推导预测，更不会据此算市值应该是多少。 4. 再重复一遍：技术分析只是指标，不是圣经。 别再在我的 Soitec 帖子下面贴 TA 然后说“超涨了！！！”了，完全不看基本面、催化剂或宏观。 尤其在基本面发生剧烈变化的时候，TA 更没意义，比如 60 亿美元的稀释，或者像 $BULL、$CRCL 这样的 IPO 流通盘锁定。 5. 稀释是有区别的。 ATM 和可转债不一样，可转债和贷款也不一样。 这里面的细节非常复杂。 有些会带来更好的股东回报，有些则更伤人，比如 $IREN 那 60 亿美元 ATM。 流通盘变化、ATM 规模和市值的相对关系，都要算进去。 6. 市场是前瞻的。差别只在于它往前看多远。 别总拿过去的收入指引去证明估值合理，因为市场已经在定价未来增长，比如 $TSEM 在光子业务起量时的前瞻增长。 7. 收入/毛利/利润都极其极其复杂。 利润可以藏在税务减记里，利润率也可以藏在利润表别的地方，比如 opex 或折旧。 所以拿“毛利/利润”（比如 $IREN）去和其他 neocloud 相比，若没有把会计口径标准化，其实没什么意义。 8. 净利润不等于 GAAP 净利润。 像 $SNAP 这类公司的真实盈利能力，可能被 SBC 之类的项目掩盖掉。 当公司对媒体宣布非 GAAP 净利润 5 亿美元时，它提交给 SEC 的正式 GAAP 净亏损可能因为 SBC 变成 1.5 亿美元。 9. 流通盘动态 + 稀释很重要。 你可以说“这公司市值 1.5 亿，利润 3000 万”，但如果你忘了 X 行权价背后还有巨大的稀释压力，那你的研究基本就被扔进垃圾桶了。 10. 一定要把收入增长 / TAM 放进去。 公司一年可以增长 200%，但如果 TAM 像金融科技那样最终见顶，营收增速迟早会掉下来。 这就是为什么 $RKLB 会因为无限的太空 TAM 预期拿到溢价，而其他在金融科技里只增长 40% Y/Y 的公司却拿不到。
英文原文
Top 10 common fallacies I keep seeing again and again on X. And some of the most important things I look out for too when doing research: 1. Being in "crowded" names like $LITE or $COHR does not mean these names won't go higher. (Just look at Nvidia throughout 2022 -> 2026). 2. Don't conflate bottlenecks and critical companies in supply chains like SpaceX or Nvidia with stock market returns. What matters is how it translates to material operating income. The reason I mention $AXTI, is likely price hikes from being that bottleneck. 3. Insider Sales are the extreme noise. You will never see me quote that anywhere to derive projections and what the MC should be at. 4. Repeat after me. TA is only an indicator, not a bible. Please stop posting TAs underneath my Soitec posts to say "overextended!!!" without any reference to fundamentals, catalysts, or macro. TA's especially, mean nothing when there's extreme fundamental changes (eg. $6B in share dilution or upcoming IPO float lockup like $BULL, $CRCL). 5. DILUTION IS DIFFERENT. ATMs are different than convertible notes that are different than loans. It's extremely nuanced. Some lead to more equity returns than others that are more harmful (eg. $IREN $6B ATM). Float dynamics, ATM sizes relative to marketcap, and all others need to be accounted for. 6. Markets are forward looking. It's just a matter of how far in the future they look. Stop only posting previous revenue guidance only to justify valuations pricing in forward growth eg. $TSEM forward growth for photonics ramp. 7. Revenue/Gross Margins/Profit are extremely, extremely nuanced. Profit can be hid in tax writeoffs, and margins can be hid in other parts of the income statement like opex, or in depreciation. So posting "gross margins/profit" (eg. $IREN) and using that to justify it vs. other neoclouds means nothing if the accounting is not normalized 8. Net Income is not the same as GAAP Net Income. True profitability from companies like $SNAP are hid by things like stock-based compensation. When a company reports non-GAAP net income of $500 million to the media, their official SEC-filed GAAP net income could be a $150 million loss because of SBC. 9. Float Dynamics + Dilution are important. You can say "oh this company is $150M MC, 30m profit" but if you're forgetting there's a massive dilution overhead at X strike, then all your research gets thrown out the drain. 10. Make sure to factor in REVENUE GROWTH/TAM. You can grow a company 200% one year, but if TAM maxes out like in Fintech then revenue growth eventually falls off the cliff. Hence why $RKLB gets premiums for infinite Space TAM growth while other companies in fintech growing at 40% Y/Y don't.
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警示新手勿盲目迷信技术分析，需警惕流通盘解锁风险。
@themomentumplay 因为当新手看到有人通过技术分析(TA)预测 $BULL XYZ 突破至 $200，而其市值(MC)仅为 $500亿时，这确实会对他们造成真正的伤害。 那些画技术分析图的人并没有考虑到，下周将有 99.5% 的流通股本被解锁。
英文原文
@themomentumplay Because it’s genuinely harmful to newcomers when they see someone TA $BULL XYZ breakout to $200 when it was trading at a $50B MC. When those TA drawers didn’t account 99.5% of the float being unlocked the next week.
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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2026年1月1日美股评级：推荐SMCI、INTC等复苏及AI基建标的，回避高估量子及零售股。
欢迎来到2026年。1月1日评级： 强烈买入： $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR 三星电子 (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL 买入： $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK海力士 $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB 回避： $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ 简而言之的想法： TTD - 估值完全重置，年初至今下跌67%，叠加年底税务抛售。进入2026年是极佳的复苏标的。 SMCI - 仅因推迟一个季度以符合新Blackwell规格而交易得像一家困境公司。前瞻收入同比增长50%，市销率(P/S)接近0.5。税务收割后的极佳复苏标的。 AIRO - 资产负债表约1/6为现金。随着政府加速投资，无人机领域备受追捧。另一只被抛售的IPO新股。进入2026年，尤其在热门细分领域，是极佳的复苏标的。市销率约3.8倍，相比ONDS的25-30倍市销率，当然其教育等业务对利润率计算有很大干扰。 INTC - 它实际上已成为美国政府的半导体臂膀。超大规模云厂商很可能被激励（强烈施压）在有机会时优先使用Intel而非TSM、三星等。我不会赌美国政府会输。 HIMS - 进入2026年前大幅抛售。从70多美元下跌。销售/流量下降，但Zava收购/增长应在2026年带来巨大顺风。尤其是有数亿美元回购，前两个月是强劲的复苏标的。 AXTI - 之前发过相关论点。CEO称“40%的磷化铟(InP)供应链”，InP将是2026-2027年超大规模AI建设中的巨大瓶颈，直到2028年有足够时间通过工程手段绕过它。 TSM - 我引用过很多次。利润率提升。需求最大化。未来几年极好的复利增长者。 三星电子 - 受益于代工/存储。在所有顺风助力业务方面简直是金蛋。 NBIS - 极强买入，$7-90亿年度经常性收入(ARR)，它实际上是5家不同公司，每年三位数增长。管理层引用20-30%息税前利润(EBIT)率，这只是等待游戏。 CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - 整个数据中心板块在Oracle/OpenAI担忧后极度超卖。OpenAI最近融资$400亿，$AMZN再投$100亿等。因此关于资本支出(Capex)的担忧已大幅降低风险。这也是多方面的，例如比特币下跌影响$CIFR资产负债表，$GLXY在加密领域。但总体而言，新云(neoclouds)板块有巨大的复苏/扩张潜力。 TSSI - 类似SMCI。递延收入=核弹级利空。税务收割后应恢复，且大量收入将被确认。 META - 财报后因一次性税务问题遭遇巨大算法抛售。他们还削减了现实实验室等部门的资本支出/运营支出，这应为2026年的每股收益(EPS)带来巨大顺风。 ETOR - 市值$28亿，坐拥$12亿现金，仍保持双位数同比增长。$1.5亿回购应是不错的顺风，且年初至今表现带来的税务收割效应应会消退。 CRCL - 稳定币论点在2026年应非常稳固。 买入 KRKNF - Anduril合作伙伴+规模。2026年可能转板，国防支出带来大量顺风。 ONDS - 收入增长极具爆炸性，到处都有新的$1000万合同。大量现金余额资助研发。市销率很高，但该领域的投机性领导者如RKLB有估值溢价。 GEMI - 通常我不喜欢交易所，但Gemini从$30+ IPO跌至$10以下。极佳的复苏标的。 NVDA - 巨大的积压订单。大家都知道Nvidia的牛市逻辑。 MU - 存储火热。 SK海力士 - 存储火热。 AMKR - 受益于“美国制造”芯片生产扩张。 SNAP - 存储运营支出削减，存储货币化增加收入，Perplexity贡献$4亿。季度收入$15亿。如果他们将所有这些转化为$10亿+自由现金流(FCF)/年，即使收入完全停止增长，也会完全重估Snap。 RDDT - 说实话，未来10+年不会消失。它是社交媒体界的Robinhood，通过新的收入货币化方式极速增长，且极其盈利。 AAOI - Amazon, MSFT ASIC规模化的互连标的。 COHR - 受益于下一代ASIC的光子学部署。 FISV - 财报后抛售过多，税务收割后是强劲的复苏标的。 FLY - SpaceX IPO带动太空领域火热。税务收割结束后应表现良好，且即将有Northrop的中期催化剂。 DJT - 我从没想过会把它放在这里，但这只是因为他们的TAE合并。 LITE - Google TPU部署带来巨大的物料清单(BOM)，估值有吸引力。Google TPU修正预估后轻微抛售，但它基本存在于每个超大规模ASIC部署中。 AMZN - 七大科技巨头中估值不过高的一个。 MRVL - 分析师误导导致抛售，进入2026年强烈买入。尤其是MSFT Maia收入翻倍时，Marvell当前收入也将随之增长。 AVGO - 像NVDA一样，随着AI基础设施部署加速，强劲的长期持有标的。 OSS - 我曾发帖推测他们是Anduril的供应商之一。但无论如何，边缘计算在2026年将很火热，其1.8亿市值呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 BULL - 类似Robinhood，拥有巨大用户群，但他们只需找出货币化方法。 Oracle - 我认为抛售过多。几个月前我将其列入回避，但从$330跌至$190后，尤其在OpenAI再融资$400亿后，再次具有吸引力。 CRDO - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 ALAB - 极高利润率，数据中心部署所需的必要连接。 回避： 有很多在“高估名单”上的东西，比如$RKLB，我喜欢但除了这些之外我不会说回避它们。 RGTI, QBTS, RGTI - 量子名称仍然高估，且可能在未来几年无法交付自由现金流。 BMNR, ETH - 如果你看过我的ETH帖子，我不太看多，因为每天ETH燃烧量只是个位数到低双位数，这简直是笑话。 PLTR - 最被高估的AI名称之一。 WMT - 这怎么是40倍市盈率？这是沃尔玛？ __ （这些基于今日价格） 简而言之： Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma等IPO名称在下跌+税务收割后进入2026年呈现有吸引力的上行空间。 大量如SMCI, HIMS等过去3个月下跌约40%的名称，在税务收割+一月效应后是极好的波段/复苏交易标的。 许多如FiserV或The Trade Desk等暴跌的名称在税务收割后也是良好的复苏交易标的。 许多数据中心股票如nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy也是极好的复苏交易标的。 许多其他领域如存储、瓶颈、光子学等在2026年只是极好的长期持有标的，尽管各自都触及历史新高。 仍有相当多高估的名称，从量子到某些太空股票（如planet或rocketlab），特定AI名称如Palantir到零售股票如沃尔玛，我可能会暂时回避，直到有轻微回调。 这只是一个简而言之，如果我仅做短期交易（非长期），但欢迎提问。
英文原文
Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings: Strong Buy: $TTD $SMCI $AIRO $INTC $HIMS $AXTI $TSM $NBIS $CIFR Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) $HUT $IREN $WULF $GLXY $TSSI $META $ETOR $CRCL Buy: $KRKNF $ONDS $GEMI $NVDA $MU $AMKR SK Hynix $SNAP $RDDT $AAOI $COHR $FISV $FLY $DJT $LITE $AMZN $MRVL $AVGO $OSS $BULL $ORCL $CRDO $ALAB Avoid: $RGTI $QBTS $RGTI $BMNR $ETH $PLTR $WMT _ TLDR thoughts: TTD - Complete valuation reset dropping 67% YTD, compounded by EOY tax sell-off. Great recovery play going into 2026. SMCI - Trades like distressed company just because they delayed revenue by 1 quarter for new blackwell specs. Forward revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, P/S close to .5 now. Great recovery play from tax harvesting. AIRO - Roughly ~1/6th balance sheet was cash. Everyone seems to be into drones, especially with accelerated gov inevstments. Another IPO name that got sold off. Great recovery play going into 2026 with esp. hot segment. Roughly ~3.8x P/S compared to ONDS trading at 25-30 P/S, but obviously there's quite a lot of other businesses like their education sector which messed up margin calculations quite a bit. INTC - It's literally become the semi arm of the US government. Hyperscalers will likely be incentived (strongly pressured) to use Intel whatever chance it gets over TSM, Samsung, etc. I would not bet against the US government. HIMS - Huge selloff going into 2026. Down from $70's. Sales/Traffic is down, but Zava acquisition/growth should add a huge tailwind going into 2026. Esp. with few hundred mill buybacks, strong recovery play first two monts in. AXTI - Posted thesis on this earlier. CEO - "40% of Inp supply chain", InP will be a huge, huge bottleneck for hyperscaler AI buildout 2026-2027 until there's enough time to engineer around it in 2028. TSM - I've covered this quote a lot. Increasing margins. Maxed out demand. Just extremely good compounder next few years. Samsung Electronics - benefits from foundry/memory. just golden egg regarding all the tailwinds helping the buisness. NBIS - Extremely strong buy, $7-9B ARR, it's literally 5 different companies growing triple digits Y/Y. management quoted 20-30% EBIT margins, it's just a waiting agme. CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF, GLXY - Whole datacenter space is extremely sold off after Oracle/OpenAI fears. OpenAI recently raised $40B, another $10B from $AMZN, and more. So a lot of fears regarding capex spend has been de-risked. It's multifaceted too, eg. Bitcoin drop, affects $CIFR balance sheet, $GLXY in crypto space. But generally huge recovery play/ramp for neoclouds sector. TSSI - Similar to SMCI. deferred revenue = nuke. Should recover after tax harvesting + lot of revenue gets recognized META - Huge algorithmic selloff post earnings due to one-time tax. They also cut capex/opex spend of their reality labs and other departments and this should be a huge tailwind for EPS going into 2026. ETOR - Literally sitting on $1.2B with a $2.8B marketcap and growing double digits Y/Y still. $150M buyback should be a nice tailwind, and tax harvesting from YTD performance should subside. CRCL - Same as stablecoin thesis should be really solid going into 2026 Buy KRKNF - Anduril partner+ scale. Probable uplisting in 2026, lot of tailwinds from defense spending. ONDS -pretty explosive revenue growth, new $10m contracts left and right. large cash balance to fund r&d. Pretty high p/s but there's valuation premiums for speculative leaders in the space like rklb. GEMI - So i typically dont like exchanges, but gemini got nuked from $30+ IPO sub $10. pretty solid recovery play. NVDA - Huge backlog lol. Everyone knows bull case for nvidia MU - Memory is hot SK Hynix - Memory is hot AMKR - benefits from "made in america" chip expansion in prod. SNAP - Opex Cut from memory, increase revenue from memory monetization, $400m from perplixity. $1.5B revenue/quarter. They could literally stop growing revenue complelty if they convert all of that to $1B+ FCF/year, it would re-rate snap completly. RDDT - This is not going anywhere for the next 10+ years tbh, it's like robinhood of social media, growing extremely fast from new ways to monetize revenue, and just extrmeely profitable. AAOI - interconnect play for amzn, msft asic scale up. COHR - benefits from photonics rollout for next gen asics. FISV - Nuked a bit too much post ER, strong recovery play esp. post tax-harves.t FLY - Space is hot from SpaceX IPO. Should do well given tax harvesting is over, and they have medium lift coming up with northrop. DJT - I never thought i'd put this here lol, but this is just because of their TAE merger. LITE - Large BOM from Google TPU rollout, attractive valuation. Slight selloff after Google TPU revised est. but it's basically in every single hyperscaler asic deployment. AMZN - one of the mag7 that's not overvalued MRVL - Selloff from analyst misinformation, strong buy going into 2026. Especially with msft maia revenue doubling Marvell's current revenue when it ramps up AVGO - Like NVDA just strong long, as AI infrastructure deployment ramps up OSS - I made a post speculating that they're one of andruils' suppliers. but regardless, edge computing will be hot 2026 and its 180m mc presents attracctive upside. BULL - similar to robinhood where they have a huge userbase, but they just need to figure out monetization Oracle - Sold off a bit too much imo. I put this on avoid months ago but after the from from $330 to $190, it's more attractive again esp. after openai raised another $40B CRDO -extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout ALAB - extremely high margin, necessary connectivity for dc rollout Avoid: There's a lot of stuff on the "overvalued list" like $RKLB that i like but I wouldn't quite say avoid it either aside from these. RGTI , QBTS, RGTI - Quantum names are still overvalued and likely won't deliver fcf in the next few ytears. BMNR, ETH - if you saw my eth post, not exactly bullish since the amount of ETH burn is just single-low double digits every day, which is a joke. PLTR - one of the most overvalued ai names WMT - How is this 40 p/e? This is Walmart? __ (these are based on today's prices) TLDR: IPO names like Circle, Etoro, AIRO, Klarna, Figma, present attractive upsides post drop + tax harvesting going into 2026. Tons of names like SMCI, HIMS that dropped 40% or so past 3 months, are amazing swing/recovery trades post-tax harvest + Jan effect. Lot of the names that doom dropped like FiserV or The Trade Desk present good recovery trades too post-tax harvest. Many datacenter stocks like nebius, iren, cifr, wulf, galaxy, are amazing recovery trades too. Lot of other segments like memory, bottlenecks, photonics, and others are just great longs in 2026, despite each hitting ATHs. There's still quite a lot of overvalued names from Quantum, to certain Space stocks (eg. planet or rocketlab), specific AI names like Palantir to retail stocks like Walmart that I would probably avoid for the time being until there's a slight correction. This was a TLDR just if I'm short term trading-only (not long term) but feel free to ask questions.
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解释此前回避 Circle 是因为流通盘动态，现在重新看多
可以。所以我之前一直说，在 Circle 市值 600 亿美元时，要避开 Circle，或者做空 $CRCL、做多 $COIN。 原因是大家没理解流通盘动态。 大部分流通股被锁定，不能卖，类似于 BULL IPO。等流通股释放后，Circle 股价就崩了。 降息也会伤害稳定币铸币利息带来的盈利能力，但流通盘动态才是压倒性的最大因素。 我一直看好 USDC，但市值非常关键。现在它回到 180 亿美元，就变成了极强的买入机会。
英文原文
Sure, so I've been saying avoid Circle or short $CRCL long $COIN when Circle was trading at a $60B marketcap. This was because people didn't understand float dynamics. Majority of the float was locked up and couldn't be sold, similar to BULL IPO. When float was released, the price on Circle crashed. There's stuff like rate cuts too hurting profitability from interest on minted stablecoins, but float dynamics was the biggest factor by a longshot. I've always been bullish on USDC, but market cap plays a huge role. Now it's an extraordinarily strong buy back at $18B
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CRCL暴跌主因是禁售期解禁与流通盘动态，而非仅因降息。
所以，这在一定程度上是正确的。然而我认为 $CRCL 下跌约 50% 的主要原因在于禁售期(lockups)和流通盘(float)动态，而不仅仅是利率降息。我们在 $BULL 首次公开募股(IPO)时就见过这种情况，其以 2% 的流通盘交易，市值一度超过 500 亿美元，但在禁售期结束后暴跌回 60 亿美元。据我记忆，$CRCL 仅以有限的流通盘（约 17%）进行交易，且最近又有 3400 多万股解禁。
英文原文
So, this is partially true. However I’d argue the main reason for $CRCL ~50% drop was lockups and float dynamics, not just rate cuts. We saw this with $BULL ipo where it traded on 2% float upward of $50B and crashed back to $6B post lockup. $CRCL was only trading with a limited float (~17%) if I remember correctly, and another 34M+ got unlocked recently.
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深度解析9只个股基本面与目标价，指导散户建立独立估值模型。
基于权益排名表： 以下是对每只股票的深入分析，以及我如何重新调整投资组合以利用市场重置： · $NBIS 现价 $92，目标价 $400 / 1年 · $RKLB 现价 $43，目标价 $500 / 5年 · $CRCL 现价 $72，目标价 $150 / 8个月 · $ALAB 现价 $143.4，目标价 $250 / 6个月 · $SNAP 现价 $8.1，目标价 $22 / 1年 · $CIFR 现价 $14.8，目标价 $28 / 6个月 · $RDDT 现价 $185，目标价 $275 / 8个月 · $SMCI 现价 $34，目标价 $55 / 6个月 · $HIMS 现价 $35，目标价 $60 / 6个月 此顺序基于发布时的持仓集中度权重，以及基于现有信息对中型市值（$50亿+）板块的内部目标价推测。 以下是每只股票及目标价时间框架的深入拆解，以及“定性”理由： 1. Nebius ($NBIS)：市值 $230亿。极度低估且与基本面脱节。 $70-90亿远期年度经常性收入(ARR)，20-30%息税摊销前利润(EBIT)，来自 Shopify、埃森哲、Cursor、外国政府的企业合同，以及来自 Meta 和微软的超大规模客户合同，为 Nebius 提供了收入可见性。拥有 $48亿+现金，使其免受影响数据中心的信贷紧缩影响。预计 2026 年签约容量达 2.5 GW，可与许多其他公司（如 $IREN 的 2.8 GW）媲美，并击败许多关于容量/电力的论点。由于其许多投资组合公司支持 Tesla 和 Anthropic 等公司，它也具有更高的增长潜力（想想 $MSFT 及其投资组合公司带来的长期防御性）。 此外，随着 $NVDA 第四季度业绩爆发，Jensen 澄清了反对 GPU 折旧的论点，这有助于提升数据中心板块情绪。 1年目标价 $400，基于远期收入/利润率估值达 $1000亿+。 2. Rocketlab ($RKLB)：市值 $220亿。短期高估，长期潜力低估。 Rocketlab 是我与比特币并列的最高确信度5年长线标的。在太空领域，并非赢家通吃，我维持 $3500-5000亿长期目标价以匹配 SpaceX 的最新估值/能力。 目前它被高估。但从纯技术角度看，构建可重复使用火箭构成了惊人且具防御性的护城河，我们正处于其端到端太空产品大规模商业化（可能在 ~2028 年）的早期阶段。 然而，市场正在计入 Flatlite 商业化（如 Starlink）和中程有效载荷（SpaceX Falcon 9）的远期增长。市场也计入远期增长，但对于 Rocketlab 而言，关键在于未来有多远。这始终是一个坚实的买入机会，取决于你对公司执行的耐心程度。 3. Circle ($CRCL) - 市值 $160亿，低估。 对于 Circle，自其市值 $500亿以来我就看空，建议做空 Circle，做多 Coinbase，因为 $COIN 与 Circle 有 50% 的收入分成。 此前因流通股本数字和财报后/12月2日巨大的内部人锁定期导致抛售（类似 $BULL）而被高估。流通股本动态很重要，像 Cathie Wood 这样的 ETF 经理似乎不理解（因此我的警告）。 但现在我们达到了合理的估值水平。我预计 USDC 商业化将继续，鉴于数字资产市场的监管重点，我看到 $CRCL 将接管 Tether 的大部分市值。 话虽如此，一旦我们看到内部人股份重新分配给机构和长期持有者，计入稳定币交易量增长，它完全值得 $300亿+的市值定价。 4. Astera Labs ($ALAB) - 市值 $220亿，估值合理 ALAB 是我中期高确信度选股之一，因为 Mag7 采用其连接技术用于数据中心建设。 增长极高，利润率类似 $NVDA，约为 ~74%，最新估算：$2.3亿/季度（同比增长 101%）。我的论点是，如果 Mag7 依赖某家公司（$NVDA 用于 GPU，NBIS、IREN、CIFR 用于 DC AI 云建设），该公司将连续几个季度大幅超出预期，我们正看到这一点。 尽管全面超出业绩预期，Astera 最近从 $250 抛售回 $140 区间，这提供了一个良好的买入机会。 我维持中期目标价 $250，以在 NVDA 业绩后及 Anthropic $400亿 DC 到 $GOOGL 在德克萨斯州 $500亿 DC + 连接需求创纪录的数据中心建设后恢复。 5. Snapchat ($SNAP) 市值 $130亿，低估。 $SNAP 是我最不喜欢的股票和 CEO 之一（抱歉 Evan）。 然而，我无法反驳基本面的变化。我最近论点帖子的 TLDR 是，他们正在削减来自存储 10 年前记忆/视频的巨大运营支出膨胀，如果你查看他们的 GCP 托管费用，这会侵蚀利润率。 现在他们既减少了该 OPex 成本，又从中增加了收入。我们还有与 Perplexity 的 AI 交易，增加了 $4亿+的额外收入流，如 RDDT。 然而，短期内由于相对于 AI 公司的表现不佳，它正遭受税务收割。在 2026 年 Q1，我预计市场将开始大幅计入新的基本面，该公司将大幅超出预期。 话虽如此，随着市场计入新动态，我预计从此处 1 年内有超过 200%+ 的上涨空间。 5. CIFR ($CIFR) - 市值 $50亿，低估 $CIFR 是 Neocloud 板块中我最喜欢的第二只股票。据记忆，其资产负债表上持有大量比特币，并受到 BTC 价格从 $120k 跌至 $90k 的实质性影响。 然而，我预计随着级联保证金清算结束且机构以低价买入比特币，加密资产价格将在几个月内恢复。 Nebius 位居榜首，因为它拥有完整的 AI-云价值链，具有更高的收入潜力和更强的回报，尽管这迫使他们处理编排、软件和 GPU 生命周期风险，而不是坚持托管。 然而，$CIFR 避免了整个风险面，并拥有 AMZN 和 GOOGL 的支持作为长期收入锚点。它也免受 GPU 采购、管理和折旧的影响。 对于 CIFR 的经济模型，我们获得了一个基于超大规模客户空间、电力和冷却的高利润率、年金结构。经风险调整后，它是该组中最安全的名称之一。但权衡是上涨空间受限。像 10 年、15 年这样的长期租赁减缓了收入爬坡，并相对于从 $1.45亿季度收入到一年内 $21亿的全栈 Neocloud 运营商（如 NBIS）削弱了回报。 话虽如此，一旦市场计入 $AMZN、$GOOGL Fluidstack 收入且比特币价格恢复，我维持 1 个月后的 $28 目标价。 6. Reddit ($RDDT) - 估值适中 来自 WSB 子版块 Wendy's 垃圾桶的我，自然对这个平台有偏见。 然而，Reddit 最初从 $270 的抛售是由于对 ChatGPT 引用的担忧，这是不重要的。现在，最新数据显示引用回来了，但 Reddit 的价格仍停留在 $185（远低于该数字）+ 部分由于宏观因素。 Reddit 是最不臃肿、高利润的社交媒体公司之一。由于年轻和年长受众的网络效应的长期防御性（与 Snap 9亿+ MAU 主要为年轻一代相比），它将长存。 我预计 RDDT 将通过收购（如 $HOOD 交易所）扩大货币化途径，得益于其巨大的自由现金流(FCF)和盈利能力，或者像 Facebook 最初收购 WhatsApp、Instagram、构建 Messenger 一样。这是一只低风险、高增长的股票，因此我维持 8 个月后的 $275 目标价。 7. SMCI ($SMCI) - 低估，市值 $200亿。 $200亿市值是个笑话。无话可说。他们正在实现 $50亿季度收入（当然利润率较低）。然而，市场正在计入公司收入下降。 SMCI 将大部分积压订单推迟到 2026 年 Q2，这与 Neoclouds 到 Mag7 客户的许多数据中心建设相一致。 他们预计明年收入同比增长 50%+，至少 $360亿收入，但鉴于 NVDA 业绩爆发带来的数据中心建设，我预计服务器机架公司如 $DELL 和 SMCI 将在 2026 年 Q2 表现优异。 这就是为什么我利用当前季度的收入滞后延迟，并分配 6 个月后的 $55 目标价。 8. Hims and Her Health ($HIMS) - 低估（市值 $80亿） 个人而言，我仅将 HIMS 用于短期交易突破。我一直不长期持有高于 $50 的股票。 然而，回到 $35，它重置了今年大部分的增长，但收入同比增长 49% 至 $5亿，并产生大量自由现金流。 最被低估的叙事是 Zava 收购。这为 HIMS 平台增加了 130万+用户，并使公司能够扩展到欧盟市场。 类似于 META 收购 Instagram 等公司，扩大基础+货币化，我预计 HIMS 将对 Zava 做同样的事情 + 市场正在计入当前的 Zava 估算数字。 这可能是我信心最低的股票，尤其是 CEO 在离开后出售股份，在 $70 时的 SS 帖子让我味道不好 👀。 但话虽如此，这是一个在 6 个月时间内反弹至 $60 的好机会。 希望你喜欢我的观点。有很多关于价格的帖子，但我试图留下更定性的拆解（+ 部分定量，但省略很多技术内容以便阅读），以帮助散户建立自己的确信度和理解。 建立理解对于创建你自己的内部估值模型很重要，而不是盲目跟随 FinX 发帖人 + 当股价暂时下跌时投降。 如果你留下你的投资组合+集中度，我很乐意讨论更多。
英文原文
Based on the equity ranking table: Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset: · $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y · $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y · $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M · $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M · $SNAP at $8.1, PT $22 / 1Y · $CIFR at $14.8, PT $28 / 6M · $RDDT at $185, PT $275 / 8M · $SMCI at $34, PT $55 / 6M · $HIMS at $35, PT $60 / 6M This is in order of concentration weighting from when posted and internal PT speculation based on existing information for mid-cap ($5B+) sections. Here’s a deeper breakdown on each one and PT timeframe, and a “qualitative”why: 1. Nebius ( $NBIS ): $23B marketcap. Incredibly undervalued and detached from fundamentals. $7-9B forward ARR, 20-30% EBIT, enterprise contracts from Shopify, Accenture, Cursor, foreign governments and hyperscaler contracts from Meta and Microsoft give Nebius revenue visibility. With $4.8B+ in cash, it's isolated from credit tightening affecting data centers. With 2.5 GW expected capacity contracted 2026, it rivals many others eg. $IREN at 2.8 GW, and defeats many of the capacity/power arguments. With many portfolio companies powering companies like Tesla and Anthropic, it also has higher growth potential (think $MSFT with its portfolio companies for longer defensibility). We also had stellar $NVDA earnings going into Q4 with their blowout, Jensen clarifying arguments against GPU depreciation, which helps with DC sector sentiment. $400 1 year price target, $100B+ valuation given forward revenue/margins. 2. Rocketlab ( $RKLB ): $22B marketcap. Overvalued current term, undervalued long term potential. Rocketlab is my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. With Space, it's not winner takes all, and I've maintained $350-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities. As of now, it's overvalued. But it's an incredible + defensible moat from purely a technological standpoint building reusable rockets and we're early in terms of commercialization of their end-to-end space products at scale (likely ~2028). However, we're pricing in forward growth with Flatlite commericalization (eg. Starlink), and medium-lift payloads (SpaceX Falcon 9). The market prices in forward growth as well but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab. It's always a solid buy, depending on how patient you are with company execution. 3. Circle ( $CRCL ) - $16B marketcap, undervalued. With Circle, I've been bear posting it since it was a $50B marketcap, saying short Circle, long Coinbase, given $COIN has 50% revenue sharing with Circle. It was overvalued due to float numbers and massive insider lockups 2-3 days after earnings/Dec 2nd led to a sell-off (like $BULL). Float dynamics matter a lot that ETF managers like Cathie Wood seem to not understand (hence my warnings). But now we're reaching respectable valuation numbers. I expect USDC commercialization to continue and given a regulatory focus in the digital asset market, I see $CRCL taking over a lot of Tether's marketcap. That being said, it's well deserving of a $30B+ marketcap pricing in stablecoin volume growth once we start seeing insider shares redistributed to institutions and long term holders. 4. Astera Labs ( $ALAB ) - $22B marketcap, reasonable valuation ALAB was one of my mid-term high conviction picks, due to Mag7 adoption of connectivity for datacenter buildout. Incredibly high growth and $NVDA-like margins sitting at ~74%, latest er: $230m/q (101% Y/Y growth). My thesis was that if Mag7 is dependent on a company ($NVDA for GPUs) ( NBIS, IREN, CIFR for DC AI cloud buildout), the company will blow away expections quarter after quarter, and we're seeing this. There's been a recent sell-off on Astera from $250 back to $140 marks, depsite beating earning expectations across the board and this presents a good buying opportunity. I maintain a medium term PT $250 for recovery after NVDA earnings and record-high DC buildout from Antrophic's $40B DC to $GOOGL's $50B DC in Texas + connectivity demand. 5. Snapchat ( $SNAP ) $13B marketcap, undervalued. $SNAP is one of my least favorite stocks and CEO's (sorry Evan). However, I can't argue with fundamental changes. A TLDR of my most recent thesis post was that they're cutting their massive opex bloat from memories/videos stored 10 years ago and if you look into their GCP hosting fees, it's cutting in margins. Now they're both reducing that OPex cost and increasing revenue from that. We also have AI deals with perplexity adding $400m+ additional revenue streams like RDDT. However, short term it's suffering from tax-harvesting due to underperformance this year relative to AI companies. In 2026 Q1, I expect the market to start pricing in the new fundamentals Hard. and for this company to beat expectation soundly. That being said I expect over a 200%+ upside 1Y from here with the market pricing in the new dynamics. 5. CIFR ( $CIFR ) - Undervalued at $5B marketcap $CIFR is my second favorite stock in the Neocloud sector. From memory, it holds a lot of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and is materially affected by the selloff in BTC prices from $120k to $90k. However I expect crypto asset prices to recover in a few months once cascading margin liqudations finish and instituions buy-in Bitcoin at low prices. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation. However, $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from AMZN and GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation. For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year. That being said I maintain a $28 PT in 1 month once market prices in $AMZN, $GOOGL Fluidstack revenue and Bitcoin prices recover. 6. Reddit ( $RDDT ) - Moderate valuation Coming from the Wendy's dumpsters on WSB subreddit, I am naturally biased toward this platform. However, the initial sell-off of Reddit at $270 was due to fears over ChatGPT citations, which was immaterial. Now, recent data shows that citations are back, but Reddit's price still sits at $185 (way below that number) + partly due to macro. Reddit is one of the least bloated, highly profitable social media companies. And it's here to stay due to long term defensibility of the network effect of both younger + older audiences (compared to Snap 900m+ MAU of mostly younger generation). I expect RDDT to scale up monetization avenues through acquisitions like $HOOD (exchanges) due to their massive FCF and profitability or how Facebook originally acquired WhatsApp, Instagram, built out messenger. It's a low-risk, high growth stock, which is why I maintain a $275 PT in 8 months. 7. SMCI ( $SMCI ) - Undervalued, $20B marketcap. $20B marketcap is a joke. Nothing else to say. They're doing $5B quarterly revenue (off lower-margins for sure). However, market is pricing in the company revenue dropping. SMCI quoted majority of the backlog delay to Q2 2026, which aligns with a lot of the DC buildout from Neoclouds to Mag7 customers. They expect revenue to grow 50%+ Y/Y next year, with at least $36 billion revenue, but judging from DC buildout from blowout NVDA earnings, I expect server rack companies like $DELL and SMCI to outperform Q2 2026. This is why I'm taking advantage of revenue lag delays from the current quarter and assigning a $55 PT in 6 months time. 8. Hims and Her Health ( $HIMS) - Undervalued ( $8B marketcap) Personally, I've used HIMS just for short term trading breakouts. And I've been one to not long-term hold the stock above $50. However, back at $35, it's reset most of the year's growth but grew revenue 49% Y/Y to $500m and is producing a good amount of FCF. The most under-priced narrative is the Zava acquisition. This adds 1.3M+ users to the HIMS platform and allows the company to expand to the EU market. Similar to how META acquires companies like Instagram, grows its base + monetizes, I expect HIMS to do the same with Zava + market is pricing in current est. Zava numbers. It's probably my least confident stock out of the bunch, especially leaving me with a bad taste with the CEO selling shares after leaving 👀 on SS posts back at $70. But that being said it's a great rebound opportunity to $60 in a 6 month timeframe. Hope you enjoyed my perspective. There's a lot of x at price posts, but I try to leave a more qualitative breakdown (+ part quantitative but leave out a lot of technical for easier reading) to help retail develop their own conviction and understanding. Building understanding is important to create internal valuation models yourself rather than blindly following along FinX posters + capitulating when stock prices temporarily drop. Happy to discuss more if you drop your own portfolio + concentrations.
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反驳“当前价格已充分反映”观点，强调市场低效带来的套利机会。
他们什么都没搞对。“当前价格已充分反映。”这完全是错的。 他在寻找超额收益的方向上是对的，但想用一些Instagram风格的励志语录。 如果当前价格总是被正确定价，就没人能通过利用市场低效来赚钱了。 不久前，由于市场未能正确定价，套利 $BULL 股票与认股权证就是白捡的钱。或者像 $UPWK 这样大量被错估的股票，以低于6.5倍的市盈率交易，却拥有庞大的现金资产负债表和增长。
英文原文
They didn't nail anything. "The present is already priced." This is literally wrong. He's correct directionally finding alpha, but wanted to use some Instagram style inspirational quote. If the present were always correctly priced, nobody would make money exploiting market inefficiencies. It was free money arbitraging $BULL shares vs. warrants not too long ago due to markets not pricing things in correctly. Or tons of misvalued equities like $UPWK trading way trading under 6.5 P/E with large cash balance sheets and growth.
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作者偏好低流通盘股票以博取高收益，但建议同时持有期权。
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot 今年我见过太多低流通盘(low float) IPO 涨幅超过 700% 的案例，从 $BULL 到 $NMAX 哈哈……或者去年 $DJT 到 $OKLO，但那些是 300% 的涨幅。 所以我个人更偏爱股票，仅仅是为了那 25% 的低流通盘拉升机会。但聪明人应该两者都持有。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger @Planckbot I’ve just seen so many lower float 700%+ IPOs this year from $BULL to $NMAX lol… or $DJT to $OKLO last year but those were 300% gains. So I prefer shares myself just for that 25% chance on a low float rally. But a smart person would have both.
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SPAC IPO中因禁售期限制，首月股票流动性低涨幅大，优于认股权证。
作为一个经常参与像 $BULL 这样的 SPAC IPO（特殊目的收购公司首次公开募股）的人，你会错过带有认股权证（Warrants）的 SPAC 股票带来的疯狂上涨（例如 600%+），因为你必须等待一个月后才能转换认股权证。 许多内部人士/禁售协议（Lockup Agreements）在认股权证可转换之前也无法出售或转换。（因此，前一到两周仅持有股票的回报率最高。 而且认股权证通常被低估，因为它们计入了稀释因素。例如 $BULL IPO 价格约为 $10，股价涨至 $80，而认股权证仍将其定价为 $16（$10 行权价 - $6/认股权证）。 因此，我通常在 SPAC IPO 中更偏好股票而非认股权证，因为第一个月内流通盘（Float）很小。
英文原文
As someone who frequently does SPAC IPOs like $BULL, you miss out on the crazy upside (eg. 600%+) on spac shares with warrants because you can’t convert warrants until one month later. A lot of insiders/lockup agreements can’t sell or convert as well until warrants can be converted too. (So first week or two has highest return with shares only. And warrants are typically underpriced since they factor in dilution. For example $BULL ipo’d around $10, rose to $80, while warrants were still pricing it at $16 $10 strike - $6/warrant. So I typically prefer shares over warrants on spac ipos, since it’s low float for a month.
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分析$RBRK基本面与估值，认为其是网络安全板块好买点，但非最佳机会。
所以人们几乎每隔一条帖子就问起 $RBRK，我知道它在 X 上很火。 为了让大家别再问（我也在 $82 买入了一些 Rubrik），我最终去研究了一下它。 我的研究 TLDR（太长不看版）： - 网络安全公司（该行业估值倍数极高，参考 $CRWD 或 $NET） - 80% 的毛利率（很棒） - ARR（年度经常性收入）超 10 亿美元，同比增长 40-50%（很棒） （对比 NET，ARR 约 22 亿+，同比增长 22%，市值几乎是其 5 倍） - 运营支出 (OpEx)：60-75% 的收入用于营销。这是一个巨大的积极信号。 运营营销支出虽好，但短期看起来很难看，例如 $HOOD 给客户 3% 转账奖励时，这会伤害短期财报，因为具有误导性且没多少人做拆解；但长期来看，当削减支出时，客户粘性高，这对盈利能力帮助很大。 自由现金流 (FCF) 为正，但运营支出分解主要是营销，这是好事，不同于 Snapchat 的谷歌云运营支出。 - 客户基础多元化，像 Cloudflare（如高盛、百事、埃森哲等）。 缺点： - 资产负债表不是最好，约 11 亿美元债务用于资助收购。至少是为了收购。 - 不喜欢其远期收入数字放缓了 20-25%，相比之下 $NBIS 明年增长 700% 或更多。显然不公平比较，但这就是为什么我更看好 Neoclouds（新云基础设施）。 _ 看起来是一个不错的中期持有标的，计划很简单 -> 扩大客户群 -> 缩减营销 + 高粘性客户群 -> 赶上网络安全行业估值倍数并拥有更高的 FCF。 通常这类高毛利率（如 $HOOD 在 $18 时，增长 ~50% y/y）且实现盈利的成长型公司，重估 (re-rate) 幅度最大。 $RBRK 只需在未来减少营销支出，突然就会因为其粘性客户群拥有大量 FCF。 TLDR：网络安全板块的好买点，但其他地方有更好的机会。
英文原文
So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X. I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82). TLDR my own research: - Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET) - 80% gross margins (great) - $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great) (comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC) - OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive. OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability. FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex. - Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc). Downsides: - Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions. - Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more. _ Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF. Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest. $RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base. TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.
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基于周五大跌，列出AI/加密/太空股买卖清单，看好Neocloud及算力基建。
基于周五收盘（SPY跌3.6%）的思考与解释 强烈买入 $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM （针对明年） $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP 买入 $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL 持有 $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR 卖出 $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY 强烈卖出 $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ 解释： IBIT - 跌至10.4万美元，比特币需求来自机构，关税担忧被夸大，并引发了历史上最大的清算事件之一。在我看来，清算后是购买加密货币的最佳时机。Polymarket仍定价年底有55%几率达到13万美元，但无论如何，比特币长期来看总是好的买入标的。 LTC - 单日下跌24%。使用10倍杠杆的人可能在抢先交易ETF并在交易所被清算。这可能是我见过的在98美元以下买入的最佳时机，因为政府停摆结束后ETF可能会获批。 WLAC - 由于与Fluidstack（帮助WULF和CIFR获得GOOGL背书的公司）的合作，以6亿美元估值成为有史以来最好的Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000%机会之一，而这两家公司估值为40-70亿美元。作为背景，他们将在Q4 IPO，所以你可能需要等待约2个月。 NBIS - 我持有信心最强的买入标的，明年任何Neocloud中都有400美元的激进目标价。 MP - 稀土的国家安全风险（+其他从勘探到锂电池的稀有材料股票表现可能会很好）。 TSM - 所有AI基础设施的骨干 _ 强烈买入的税务收割股票池 （可能需要等到明年） ETOR - 在38美元处严重超卖，可能是正在进行的税务收割事件叠加亏损。 DKNG - 本质上是一只成长股。鉴于市值，营收数据惊人，但他们处于年度低点-15%。可能受不受宏观影响的税务收割影响。 SNAP - 如果你读过我的论点，他们130亿美元的市值对应13亿美元的季度营收……我相信在降低运营支出+通过货币化GCP存储增加营收后，他们明年会重新评级。这只是市场何时定价的问题，但这需要1年以上。后投资者没有耐心。再次，可能受至今表现导致的年底税务收割影响。 _ 买入 UPWK - 昨日下跌4.5%，基本面极佳，~8亿同比营收，70%~或80%~的毛利率在增长，2亿回购，22亿市值。可能受罗素指数抛售影响。 CRDO - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 ALAB - 数据中心交易，Mag7使用它们。 AMZN - 虽然受到100%中国关税的实质性影响，但他们不会失去任何东西，因为成本会转嫁给商户或客户。 META - 可能因中国关税导致广告收入减少（例如，像Temu这样的中国供应商可能不会购买广告位），但仅基于-6%的1个月低点+作为落后于亚马逊的Mag7成员，我更看好它。 UNH - 医疗保健不太受100%中国关税或稀土影响。 SG - 下跌可能由于表现不佳+税务收割，但它几乎是1倍市销率（P/S）哈哈。 TGT - 我会将其列为强烈买入，因为股息催化剂+刚刚触及5年低点，但尚未对中国关税对该股票的影响做足够的研究。 BULL - 以与HOOD相似的速率增长，其基本面对于市值来说并不完全出色，但你会基于零售客户群和未来货币化潜力进行投资。 FLY - 我之前做过DD，但中型有效载荷很可能在2027年与诺斯罗普合作成功，这需要大量的耐心以换取潜在的1000%回报。 CIFR - Neocloud交易，始终看涨。像Meta X CRWV一样，更多细节可能很快公布。 WULF - Neocloud交易看涨。 IREN - Neocloud交易看涨。他们的融资轮次价格如果我记得没错的话是其股价的70%+，这是一个看涨信号（例如NBIS和CIFR在融资轮次后都达到了这一点）。 GLXY - Neocloud交易的一部分。 MRVL - 市场尚未充分定价其像NVDA一样56%的同比增长。 SMCI - 数据中心/星门建设 DELL - 数据中心/星门建设 _ 卖出 CRCL - 我会不断重复这一点，除非Circle能展示其能在利息收入之外货币化USDC，否则COIN优于Circle。因为COIN实际上获得50%的收入分成，再加上其平台上100%的收入。 ETH - 我会不断重复这一点，但我个人不会在3000美元以上买入。所以即使它下跌16%（你可以尝试波段交易，反弹至4000美元+），也始终有继续级联下跌至3000美元以下的风险，我已经数不清历史上发生过多少次了。 BMNR - 基本面与ETH挂钩。 PL - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 BKSY - 太空股票已经上涨很多，我认为像RGTI和其他股票一样，基本面并未反映其市值。 强烈卖出 RGTI - 市值与估值极度脱节 OKLO - 市值与估值极度脱节 IONQ - 市值与估值脱节 QBTS - 市值与估值脱节 QUBT - 市值与估值脱节 显然存在中美贸易战的宏观压力，但这都不是新信息（中国稀土出口管制已为人所知一段时间+美国已经对中国商品征收关税） 我们正走向定价为70%的两次更多降息，以及大幅修正以清洗高估的泡沫并清算杠杆（例如加密货币），这将帮助市场走向更高的高点。我将始终推荐股票，因为对于好公司，如果你等待足够长的时间，它们可能会跑赢（但如果出现随机的宏观风险，短期可能会跑输）。 中期来看，我对Neoclouds在未来一年AI快速建设期间最为看好 -> 机器人/太空可能是之后的下一个前沿。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: Neocloud论点：超大规模资本支出漏斗 为什么我要投入150万美元+到Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能是200-300%+的回报。 🔹 类别 Mag7合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 带算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机性：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向HPC的矿工：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7的AI算力紧张，这是由$NVDA设计导致的。 原本流向AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud用于传统算力的数万亿美元资本支出，现在当他们无法处理来自Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini等的新AI负载时，将流入Neoclouds。 这是一个十年一遇的机会，类似于使$NVDA成为4万亿美元公司的GPU军备竞赛，关于谁将为未来5-10年的AWS/Azure等提供基础设施。 NBIS（来自MSFT的170亿）、CIFR / WULF（来自GOOGL的30亿）、CRWV（由NVDA背书）都在以百分之几百的速度扩张（NBIS从1.5亿季度营收到可能的15亿+），毛利率为60-80%。 这种营收增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。这主要是因为最富有的超大规模公司将资本支出注入小公司。 NVDA / TSM (2022->): 超大规模公司的GPU CRDO / ALAB (2024 ->): 超大规模公司获胜 -> 抛物线增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN等 (2025 - ) AWS/Azure等 -> 来自AI算力的抛物线增长 这就是如何获得百分之几百的回报，而不是在Paypal上进行价值投资。动量驾驭下一代公司。 所以看空论点通常涉及 - 执行风险（以前更投机，现在像NBIS这样的公司有40亿+来执行） 人们总是担心执行，但微软或谷歌不会在没有自己尽职调查的情况下签署如此大的5-10年合同。 - 高利率（主要看你CRWV），这就是为什么NBIS、CIFR和其他公司有潜在的惊人回报。 你有40亿+的资金用于$NBIS在138美元+每股（当它是107美元时）。以及$CIFR在16美元+每股的资金当它是11美元时。高于当前价格的融资是一个看涨信号。 - GPU折旧（有效的担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使是旧型号也保持价值并仍然提供权益）。 - 估值（我认为我们才刚刚开始。如果NBIS明年扩展到60亿营收75%毛利率），260亿市值非常小。 - NVDA可能推出自己的GPU即服务并直接竞争。目前这些Neoclouds是NVDA防止对Azure/AWS等集中风险的答案。 - 自定义超大规模芯片如TPU、Trainium。但可能还需要几年，因为他们仍在乞求NVDA算力并签署了5-10年合同。 无论如何，像Nebius这样的Neoclouds相对于远期营收/毛利率确实被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像特朗普选举时的Crypto/TSLA或OpenAI发布时的NVDA一样驾驭Neocloud浪潮。 当然这是高度投机的，我不会建议全仓YOLO，但为Google/MSFT等AI工作负载提供动力的这些5-200亿Neoclouds的风险回报是值得的。（交易时间范围：8个月-1年。） 这是2025-2026年最好的非对称AI基础设施交易。
英文原文
Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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博主回顾早期IPO获利经历，表示更愿持有Boost。
@cuantitative 我提前抢到了 $DJT 和 $OKLO 的首次公开募股(IPO)，但错过了 $BULL。这些股票都带来了惊人的收益，比如3-6倍的回报，但我总是在它们身上过早卖出。不过，与前面两只相比，我确实更乐意持有 Boost 的股份。
英文原文
@cuantitative I’ve frontran $DJT, $OKLO ipos, missed out on $BULL. Those were all wildly profitable like 3-6x return but I always sold early on them. I’m genuinely fine holding shares of Boost vs the first two though.
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指出 $BULL 巨额解禁风险，但认为潜在回报可能值得。
@soulbiri1 是的，如果 $BULL 有 4.45 亿股解禁可出售，确实有点吓人。 我的意思是内部人士不一定需要卖出，但这类解禁通常都是相当负面的消息。 这有风险，但回报可能会值得。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Yeah it’s kinda scary if 445 million shares get unlocked to sell for $BULL. I mean insiders dont need to sell but these types of unlocks are always pretty negative. It’s risky but return could pay off.
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删除 $BULL 买入帖，因发现大规模解禁及内部人抛售风险。
抱歉，我最终删除了关于逢低买入 $BULL 的帖子。我轻信了关于机构抛售的新闻和其他帖子。经过进一步研究，发现这实际上是一次4.45亿股的解禁（share unlock），占流通盘（float）的30%。一位内部人士可能因预期解禁带来的进一步价格压力而提前抛售了300万股。虽然可能会反弹买入，但鉴于解禁股份数量之多以及 $BULL 的基本面，这是一个非常重大的事件。基于这些信息，你可以自行决定风险。
英文原文
Sorry ended up deleting my $BULL post about dip buying. I trusted the news + other posts about institutions selling. Did more research and it turns out to be a 445m share unlock, which was 30% of the float. One insider likely sold 3m anticipating the share unlock causing further price pressure. Could rebound buy but given how many shares are unlocked + $BULL fundamentals it’s a seriously material in event. You’re free to take your own risk given this info.
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分享BULL的备兑看涨期权策略及长期类比HOOD的潜力。
@resilliencep 我通常将其波段操作在 14 美元左右。利用这一点，你可以卖出 13 美元的备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls)，以 11.9 美元的成本均价买入，如果 $BULL 触及该行权价，收益约为 15%。或者干脆等待，它未来可能会像迷你版 $HOOD 一样表现。
英文原文
@resilliencep I usually swing it $14-ish. With this you can do $11.9 sell covered calls $13, cost average $11.5 and make like 15% if it hits that strike for $BULL. Or just wait, might end up like a mini $HOOD one day.
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分析SPRB估值与稀释风险，虽短期或涨至$500，但不建议长期持有。
TLDR：如果没有稀释，仅因TA-ERT催化剂，股价可能暂时涨至$500。但这在稀释日如同玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。 我花更多时间研究了细节： $SPRB 的合理市值约为1.5亿-2亿美元（目前8500万）。原帖作者声称目标价$500，若公司不稀释则合理。 然而： 截至2025年6月30日，SPRB现金等价物仅1640万美元，鉴于现金余额低，通过增发新股进行稀释似乎不可避免。股价上涨源于低流通盘+利好消息（无16%这样的空头头寸，故非空头挤压）。 增发新股+稀释后（市值1.5亿-2亿美元可能使股价回归~$50-75），若计入稀释，我不认为能看到$500的目标价。 我们可能会因流通盘有限看到另一波100%+的上涨冲向$500（就像$BULL因低流通盘涨至600亿市值那样），但由于随机日期的稀释如同俄罗斯轮盘赌，我不建议长期持有。 无论如何，我喜欢玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。欢迎任何反驳观点。
英文原文
TLDR: Might go up to $500 temporary strike if there's no dilution just because of TA-ERT catalyst. But it's playing Russian Roulette on dilution days. So had some more time to look into things: Fair value $SPRB market cap is = ~$150–200m. ($85M now). In OP's post they claimed $500 PT, which is fair if company doesn't dilute. However: SPRB has $16.4M in cash equivalents, June 30, 2025, dilution with new shares seems inevitable just because of low cahs balance. Price rise was due to low float + good news (there's no short interest like .16% so not a short squeeze) After issuing new shares + dilution (Market cap at $150m-$200m might normalize share price to ~$50-75), don't really see the $500 figure if dilution is included. We might see another 100%+ runup just because of limited float toward that $500 mark (like how $BULL ran to a $60B MC off low float), but I would be against holding it long term because of russian roulette dilution on a random day. Either way, I like playing Russian Roulette. Welcome any counterpoints
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承认近期波段交易，看好其散户基础，建议长期跟随龙头策略。
@thename1424559 说实话，我最近确实有过从13美元到15美元等区间进行波段交易(swing trading)的“罪过”。我也记得曾在 $BULL 上做过套利(arbitrage)。 但从基本面来看，它们拥有像 $HOOD 那样的散户基础，只是规模较小，因此我认为它可以作为长期投资，采取“跟随龙头”(follow the leader)的策略。 https://t.co/KcUN6mau1j
英文原文
@thename1424559 Honestly I've been guilty of swing trading it from 13 -> 15, etc recently. And I remember doing arbitrage on $BULL too But fundamentally, they have the retail base like $HOOD, but on a smaller scale so I can see it being a good long term investment playing follow the leader. https://t.co/KcUN6mau1j
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博主发布周一收盘观点，列出多只美股的买卖评级及具体逻辑。
周一收盘思考： 极强买入 $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT 买入 $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA 持有 $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO 卖出 $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR 强烈卖出 $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ 欢迎持不同意见，但这只是我的个人看法。 极强买入理由 - 买入约7万美元的Virtu看涨期权，隐含波动率28%，远期市盈率仅6.6倍，被低估。 - 在通往200美元的路上，每次回调都定投NBIS。 - ETOR在39美元时严重被低估。我不明白它怎么跌到那的。如果我没记错，市值33亿，现金储备超7亿，复利增长类似IBKR而非HOOD/BULL，但股价却直线跌破IPO价。 - LTC ETF批准在即（3-4天内），概率95%。除非被拒，现在是绝佳买点。 买入理由 - 今天买入5万美元以上Amazon看涨期权，回调至219美元以上后复苏前景看好。受益于10月至1月的年底季节性效应。10月8日Prime Day。可能再次回调，因此适合定投而非极强买入。 - SMCI仍预测55%的远期营收增长，季度营收超50亿，有点被低估。 - TGT下个月分红。有些Target事件，但我觉得不如Amazon Prime Day重要。 - CRM图表上看刚触底，基本面没太大变化。 - TSM在273美元更好，虽然总是好买点，但不像250美元以下那样极具吸引力。 - CRDO/ALAB，两者大幅回调。更像是修正而非崩盘，因此再次成为不错的买点。 - SG，不知道。我只是喜欢他们的沙拉，考虑到不久前交易价40美元，8美元的风险回报比不错。 - CIFR，GOOGL背书，现在看执行。我会逢低买入，但今天大涨了。 - LULU受益于10月至1月的年底季节性假日购物。 - SLNH，据说X上有关于波浪的讨论。市值很小约1亿美元，风险回报比似乎可以。 - ORCL，以140亿美元折扣估值持有TikTok美国大量股份，且来自OpenAI/MSFT的远期营收众多。就像AVGO一样，财报后可能回调，然后一两个月后迎来猛烈反弹。 - MSTR，比特币10月表现良好。被做空，所以溢价率可能在1.4x-1.5x，相比炒作时的2x。 - RIOT/MARA转向HPC，所以我比之前更喜欢它们。 持有股票没什么变化 - Hood，我个人做日内交易，所以如果我认为在单日上涨12.27%的130美元以上卖出是好的，别介意。 - TSLA，脱离基本面的信仰股。 - RDDT，我在100美元时持有大量，现在240美元或450亿市值不会买，所以可能会卖出/三角套利。 - CRCL，直接买Coinbase。 - PLTR，脱离基本面的信仰股，大部分利润只是利息收入。 - BMNR，如果你想买就买ETH，但ETH在4000美元以上也是强烈卖出。 强烈卖出 任何营收极少但市值100-200亿以上的股票我觉得很可笑。如果你从8美元持有OKLO到116美元，向你致敬。
英文原文
Monday Market Close Thoughts: Extremely Strong Buy $NBIS $ETOR $LTC $VIRT Buy $AMZN $SMCI $TGT $CRM $TSM $CRDO $SG $CIFR $LULU $SLNH $ORCL $MSTR $RIOT $MARA Hold $IREN $HIMS $RKLB $PYPL $MRVL $IBIT $UPWK $GRAB $ALAB $ASTS $SOFI $NVDA $NVO Sell $HOOD $TSLA $RDDT $CRCL $PLTR $BMNR Strong Sell $OKLO $QBTS $IONQ _ Feel free to disagree but these are just my thoughts Strong Buy Explanations - Bought ~$70K of Virtu calls, 28% IV and just 6.6 forward p/e is undervalued. - Always DCA NBIS on the road to $200 on every dip. -ETOR is just way too undervalued at $39 imo. I don't even know how it hit that. If I remember correctly $700M+ cash pile on a 3.3B market cap, compounding similar rate to IBKR instead of HOOD/BULL but just straight line down below IPO price. - LTC ETF approval in 3-4 days with 95% odds. Great buy now unless it gets rejected ofc. Buy Explanations - Bought $50k+ Amazon calls today, looks more promising for recovery on the dip to $219+. Benefits from end of year seasonality from Oct - > Jan. Prime Day Oct 8th. Could dip again which is why it's good to DCA and not an extremely strong buy. - SMCI still projecting 55% forward revenue growth and it's kinda undervalued doing 5B+ quarterly revenue lol - TGT dividend in another month. There's some Target event but don't really think it matters as much as Amazon prime day. - CRM just bottoming chart wise, fundamentals not really changed - TSM better at $273, it's always a good buy but not a screaming buy like sub $250 - CRDO/ALAB, both dipped a lot. More of a correction rather than crash, which is why it's a decent buy agian. - SG, idk. I just like their salad and think risk reward at $8 is good considering they were trading $40 not too long ago. - CIFR, GOOGL backstopped now just execution. I'd buy on dips but today was a big rally - LULU benefits from Oct -> Jan end of year seasonality with holiday shopping. - SLNH, apparently waves have been going around X. Pretty small $100m marketcap or so, risk reward seems okay. - ORCL, they're a large shareholder of TikTok US at a discounted 14B valuation and have tons of forward rev from OpenAI/MSFT. It's one of those things where it probably dips after earnings like AVGO then pulls off a face ripping rally a month or two later. - MSTR, Bitcoin does well in Oct. Been shorted so Nav prem is probably around 1.4x-1.5x compared to 2x like during hype waves -RIOT/MARA pivoted to HPC so I like them more than before For hold stocks nothing really changed - Hood, I personally day trade so don't be offended if I think it's a good sell $130+ on a 12.27% increase day. - TSLA, cult stock detached from fundamentals - RDDT, I had a lot back at $100 wouldn't buy at $240 or 45B marketcap now so would probably sell/tri. - CRCL, just buy Coinbase instead - PLTR, cult stock detached from fundamentals, large part of their profit is just interest income - BMNR, just buy ETH if you want but ETH is a strong sell at $4k+ Strong Sell Anything carrying barely any rev with 10-20B+ marketcap I think is amusing . Props to you if you held OKLO from $8 to $116 though.
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警示MSTR杠杆风险，看好AMZN/META波段，回避RIVN/TSLA。
呃，我不会建议粉丝在内容提供商(CSP)上使用2倍杠杆ETF，尤其是$MSTR，它本身波动性已经足够大。如果遭遇波动率衰减导致的强制平仓，情况可能会变得很糟，尽管我确实认为MSTR正在触底。 我同意大多数观点，比如AMZN或META，通常我会在$BULL跌至13美元左右时进行波段交易。 由于基本面原因，我不会碰$RIVN或$TSLA。
英文原文
Uh I would not tell followers about CSPs on 2x leveraged ETFs especially on $MSTR, which is volatile enough. If they get assigned with volatility decay it might get messy, though I do agree MSTR is bottoming. I'd agree on most though like AMZN or META, usually I swing trade $BULL low $13. I wouldn't touch $RIVN or $TSLA cause of fundamentals.
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建议使用富达，避免使用将订单流卖给做市商的券商。
@claudiohrios 富达(Fidelity)很棒。我只是说不要使用像 $HOOD 或 $BULL 这样将支付订单流(Payment Order Flow)路由给做市商的券商。
英文原文
@claudiohrios Fidelity is great. I was just saying don't use brokerages like $HOOD or $BULL with payment order flow that route to market makers.
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批评忽视流通盘解锁的技术分析，指出CRCL估值过高适合做空。
我们同意市场是非理性的——但你的阅读理解能力跟你的技术分析(TA)一样糟糕。你漏掉的要点是：当技术分析(TA)忽略流通盘(float)和基本面时，它毫无用处。如果像 $BULL 那样，1%的流通盘驱动市值而99%后续解锁，图表分析就不重要了。我提到的唯一估值点是：如果 $CRCL 交易价格超过 $COIN 的一半，它就是一个很好的做空标的，因为利息收入是五五分成。我对 USDC 看涨，但 Circle 今天 $200 的估值应该高于 Coinbase 的一半。总之，在忽略100多亿美元解锁和收入分成的情况下画技术分析图表，并用“市场非理性”来辩解，正是亏掉粉丝金钱的方式。
英文原文
We agree about irrational markets - but your reading comprehension is about as good as your TA. The point you missed: TA is useless when it ignores float + fundamentals. If 1% of float drives MC and 99% unlocks later like $BULL, charts don’t matter. The only valuation point I made was that $CRCL is a great short if it ever trades above 1/2 of $COIN, since interest income is split 50-50. I’m bullish on USDC but Circle at $200 today would be worth more than half of Coinbase. Anyway, drawing a TA while ignoring 10B+ in unlocks & revenue sharing and justifying it by saying "markets aren’t rational” is exactly how to lose your followers money.
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CRCL受流通盘限制估值虚高，解禁后回归基本面，建议做空CRCL做多COIN。
吐槽：这张 $CRCL 图表很好地说明了为什么技术分析(TA)意义不大——基本面更重要。 当人们在 IPO 时发布 $BULL 的技术分析时，我正在做权证套利并翻白眼。BULL 从 10 美元涨到 70 多美元，但人们只在 1% 的流通盘中交易。当股份解禁时，BULL 跌回了 10 美元的 IPO 价。 对于 CRCL，我们看到从 31 美元 IPO 价涨到 200 多美元，因为人们在有限流通盘中交易，且市值几乎与 $COIN 相当（后者拥有加密货币交易所，并与 Circle 有 50% 的利息收入分成）。当 140 多万股 Circle 股份提前解禁时，价格暴跌回 130 美元。如果你看到 $CRCL 回到 200 美元，这是一个轻松的空 Circle 多 Coinbase 策略。 完整的 180 天禁售期在 12 月 2 日结束，两个月后你还有超过 100 亿美元的潜在抛压。我对 USDC 和 Circle/Coin 持看涨态度，但鉴于现有的商业模式，考虑到像 Tether 这样的稳定币业务通过利息收入赚钱，$CRCL 在今天 200 美元时价值超过 $COIN 的一半是没有道理的。 在即将到来的股份解禁面前，技术分析毫无意义。 教训：流通盘和基本面 > 图表上的线条。
英文原文
Rant: this $CRCL chart is a great lesson on why TA means very little - fundamentals matter more. When people were posting $BULL TA's at IPO, I was doing arbitrage between warrants and rolling my eyes. BULL went from $10 to $70+ but people were trading on 1% of float. When shares were unlocked, BULL went back to $10 IPO price. For CRCL, we saw the rally from $31 IPO price to $200+ because people are trading on a limited float and MC was almost the same as $COIN. (which has 50% interest revenue sharing with Circle on top of their crypto exchange) When 1.4m+ Circle shares had early unlock, the price crashed back down to $130. If you ever see $CRCL at $200, it's an easy short Circle long Coinbaes play. The full 180 day lock up is December 2nd and you have another $10B+ USD of potential selling pressure in two months. I am bullish on USDC and Circle/Coin but with the existing business model it doesn't make sense that $CRCL should ever be worth more than 1/2 of $COIN today at $200 given how Stablecoin businesses like Tether make money off interest income. TA doesn't mean anything with upcoming share lockups. Lesson: Float & fundamentals > lines on a chart.
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复盘 $ETOR 亏损，分析其基本面低估及潜在反弹机会。
我觉得 $ETOR 可能是我今年唯一一笔越补越亏的交易 😅。发布未实现亏损也很重要。 我想我在计算时没把 Cathie Wood 为 @ARKInvest 买入该股票的因素考虑进去，因为通常她进出时股价走势会相反。 但它拥有 7.567 亿+美元的净现金，36 亿美元市值，且盈利。 IBKR 似乎因以相似速度增长而受喜爱，但它常被与增长 40%+ 的 $HOOD 或 $BULL 比较。 不过它确实被低估了，~22% 的增长和 18 倍市盈率，市场定价错误。也许一旦 IPO 买家放弃，会有随机的 40% 反弹。
英文原文
I think $ETOR might have been my only cost-avg loss so far this year 😅. It important to post unrealized losses as well. I don't think I took into Cathie Wood buying up the stock for @ARKInvest into my calculations since stocks usually do the reverse when she enters/exits. But 756.7M million+ in net cash, 3.6B market cap, and profitable. IBKR seems to be loved growing at similar rates, but it's often compared to $HOOD or $BULL that's growing at 40%+. It's genuinely undervalued though at ~22% growth and 18 P/E and market is pricing this wrong. Maybe there will be some random 40% rally once IPO buyers give up.
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博主将分享深度研究逻辑，强调基本面与文件细节而非技术图表。
此外，我将开始发布更深入的幕后分析，解释为何我认为某只股票会突破，或者回顾我之前发布过的一些历史案例，这样即使我退出后，大家也能自行操作。 这些才是股票真正上涨的原因。而不是因为那些你花钱购买的、愚蠢的线条绘制，比如什么 ABCDEFGHIJK 修正波浪 51。 通常我发的是梗图，但每一份尽职调查(DD)背后都有大量工作。这也是为什么大家对我在次日股价上涨 5-20% 时那不可思议的时机把握感到好奇的原因。 如果你看过我对 $RDDT 的 $BULL 套利操作，你就会知道我也会阅读随机的 SEC Edgar 文件，这种细节程度才是必须的。
英文原文
Also, I’ll start posting a deeper analysis behind why I think a stock would breakout or some historical ones I’ve posted before so people can do it without me when I quit. And these are the reasons why a stock actually goes up. Not because of some stupid line drawing, with ABCDEFGHIJK correction wave 51 that you pay for. Usually I post memes, but theres a ton that goes into each DD. And it’s why everyone wonders why I have uncanny timings with things going up 5-20% the next day. If you saw my $BULL arbitrage on $RDDT, you would know I read through random sec Edgar filings too, so that level of detail is whats required.
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跟随HOOD入标普500买入BULL，看好其增长与散户基础。
现在跟着领头羊走。 跟随 $HOOD 被纳入标普500指数的消息，买入10万美元的 $BULL。 奇怪的是，在获得18美元超配评级目标价后，股价反而下跌了2.4%，可能是受Instagram上过多的每周电话会议影响。 其45%的同比增长率与Hood相似，拥有来自WSB（华尔街梗）的庞大且受认可的散户基础。 短期风险在于9月份随机的宏观经济数据。 https://t.co/mSkBpoxCMI
英文原文
Now playing follow the lead. Bought $100k of $BULL following $HOOD S&P. Weird it dropped 2.4% on a $18 outperform price target, too many weekly calls IG. Growing rev of 45% y/y similar to Hood, massive regarded retail base from WSB. Short term risk is random Sept macro. https://t.co/mSkBpoxCMI
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博主看好 $KSPI 估值与增长，已建仓并计划加仓至 $250k。
$KSPI 在本周下跌 7.2% 后，于 $82 价位是极佳的买入机会。因此我买入了超过 $100k 的仓位，计划逐步加仓至 $250k 的成本均价。 除了 $HOOD $SOFI $BULL 之外，$KSPI 作为一家金融科技(fintech)公司，同比增长 47%，利润率 31%，市盈率(P/E) 仅为 7.9。 可能会发一篇类似 WSB 风格的文章来讨论这个。 https://t.co/JdyYm2rBuV
英文原文
$KSPI is an extremely good buy at $82 after this week's 7.2% drop. So bought $100k+ worth, plan to scale this to $250k cost average. $HOOD $SOFI $BULL aside, $KSPI is growing 47% Y/Y as a fintech with 31% profit margins and a 7.9 P/E. Might make a WSB style post about this. https://t.co/JdyYm2rBuV
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博主分享今日在BULL、SG、GME和HIMS大跌时的买入操作。
🔥今天股市大幅抛售。在$BULL下跌15%至12.28时买入了一定数量。在$SG下跌6%至$13.8时买入（有时跌至13美元低位/12.8美元高位，因此暂缓建立主要仓位）。在$GME下跌3%至$23.00时买入。在$HIMS下跌5.6%至$45.26时买入。
英文原文
🔥Fire sale today for stocks. Bought a decent amount of $BULL on the 15% drop 12.28. Bought $SG $13.8 on the 6% drop (sometimes drops to low $13/high $12.8, so hold off on major positions). Bought $GME $23.00 on the 3% drop. Bought $HIMS $45.26 on the 5.6% drop.
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博主表示若为低流通盘IPO则考虑买入。
@notthefxckinone 我需要进一步研究一下。如果是像 $BULL 那样的低流通盘 IPO，我可能会买入。
英文原文
@notthefxckinone I'll need to look into it more. If it's one of those low float IPOs like BULL I'll probably buy in
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回顾BULL因权证稀释导致股价崩盘的套利案例
当我之前做套利时，很明显一旦认股权证可以被赎回，$BULL 就会从 70 美元崩盘。然而，尽管相对于实际股价，10 美元行权价（每张 4.00 美元）的认股权证被严重错配，人们仍然盲目地在 30 美元以上买入该股票。简而言之：稀释会导致股价崩盘！
英文原文
When I was doing arbitrage earlier, it was clear $BULL was going to crash from $70 once warrants could be redeemed. Yet people blindly still bought the stock at $30+ after $10 strikes ($4.00 each) were so mispriced relative to the actual stock. TLDR: dilution crashes stocks!
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提醒关注新 IPO 稀释效应及 BULL、CRCL 禁售期影响。
人们不断私信我询问新 IPO。建议：如果你做空或做多，请密切关注稀释效应。$BULL 估值尚可，但人们需要关注活跃的禁售期。$CRCL 也有 180 天的禁售期，人们正在交易有限的流通盘，这就是它拥有 400 亿市值的原因。
英文原文
People keep DMing me about new IPOs. Advice: PAY ATTENTION to dilution if you're short/long. $BULL is okay valued but there's active lockups people need to follow. $CRCL has a 180 day lockup as well, people are trading with limited floats, which is why it has a 40B MC. https://t.co/3pjeQeTJ85
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建议 $63.1 加仓 $ETORO，因其相对同行存在补涨空间。
如果感兴趣，我也会分享一些随想。 $ETORO 在 $63.1 是一个很好的加仓点。像 $HOOD 和 $BULL 这样的加密经纪商都上涨了 8-10%+，而 ETORO 却下跌了 1.25%。 通常相关板块会有相似的走势，这更多是一种补涨行为。
英文原文
I'll also post random thoughts too if people are interested. $ETORO is a great add at $63.1, crypto brokerages like $HOOD and $BULL are both up 8-10%+ while ETORO is down 1.25%. Usually related sectors have similar movements, it's more of playing catch-up