$BKKT
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区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
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筛选小公司时应重点审视有毒融资和流通盘结构。
当然，第一重要的是有毒融资结构和流通盘动态。 最好的例子是当前 Neocloud 云算力公司的格局： - $IREN 基本上是垃圾，因为它有60亿美元 ATM，几乎是无限稀释，并且很可能在每次反弹时卖出，形成结构性压制。 - 相比之下，$NBIS 年初至今已经上涨153%+，原因是结构最优，比如 $NVDA 直接融资、可转债组合等。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款为 GPU 融资，背着无休止的债务利息。 这件事非常细，但你必须看流通盘动态。 如果它们确实是好公司，那么在现有持有人被稀释到极致之后做多，可能反而是好主意。 但如果你关心自己的股权增值，就应该远离有毒融资结构或有毒压制因素，例如长期侵蚀公司自由现金流(FCF)的债务利息。 小公司经常有这类问题，比如 $SLNH，在2.5亿美元市值上又有新的5亿美元 ATM。 或者像 $BKKT，不断稀释来支付高管薪酬。 在这些公司里，当网红们谈论它们时，你基本上是在把自己的钱转移给公司。所以这些都是危险信号。 很多软件公司，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利能力掩盖股权激励(SBC)。所以公司表面上看起来盈利，但由于稀释，你很可能会看到自己股权价值下降。 筛选投资想法时，需要检查的股权结构类型非常多。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
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长文批评IREN无限ATM和营销式融资，认为NBIS才是更好Neocloud。
$IREN 从70美元跌回46美元，跌幅34%。 我想知道 X 上最蠢的社区之一终于学会阅读了吗？ $NBIS 客观上是更好的 Neocloud，并且有真正融资。 -> Nvidia 根本没有资助 $IREN。他们得到的是免费采购协议，让 IREN 使用他们的 logo 并通过稀释来买 GPU。 $NVDA 实际上给了 $NBIS 资本。 -> $IREN 面临像 $BKKT、$ASST、$SLNH 一样无休止稀释，散户财富通过60亿美元 ATM 转移过去，而所谓“5GW 产能”护城河在缩小。 $NBIS 实际使用的是让股权增值的融资结构。 这反映在两者年初至今的差异中。 我去年也说过同样的话。一个上涨约100%。 另一个持平，甚至根据入场点可能是负收益。 IREN 到现在字面上就是一家营销公司，因为它们能说服散户把资本通过财富转移交过去。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46. I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read? $NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. -> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. -> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures. And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both. I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%. The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points. IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
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说自己打游戏时练出来了应对 IREN/BKKT 社群的耐心
@LaloGpZ9 也不完全是。但这确实帮我应付了 X 上那些脑残的 $IREN、$BKKT 社群。 毕竟我有在队友开局送人头、一路乱送还在全队频道喷人的 Draven 里练出来的经验。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LaloGpZ9 Not really. But it did help me deal with all the braindead $IREN $BKKT communities on X Since I have experience with inting Dravens on my team running it down and flaming in all chat.
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批评IREN和SLNH的稀释性融资模式，提醒投资者远离毒性融资结构
$IREN 和 $SLNH 的投资者可能是我在 X 上互动过的最愚蠢的社区。 我从未见过一个社区对一家市值 $219M 的公司如此看涨，该公司正在进行新的 $1,000,000,000 稀释。 以及持续的 $500,000,000 ATM（在市场直接发售）。 然后你看 $IREN，拥有 $6,000,000,000 活跃 ATM，持续随时间向公开市场抛售股票。 也许，一个更好的做法是去做多一只没有毒性融资的股票……这样你才能真正从股权升值中受益，而不是仅仅充当流动性。 真的很难向那些缺乏脑细胞的人解释金融稀释的细微差别。 而偏偏 $SLNH 在提交 $500M ATM 后立即被 $BKKK、$IREN 投资者正面提及，因为他们需要退出流动性。 公司正在直接把股票卖给这些傻瓜。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN and $SLNH investors are probably the most braindead communities I've interacted with on X. I've never seen a community so bullish on a $219M MC stock that has a new $1,000,000,000 dilution. And an ongoing $500,000,000 ATM. Then you have $IREN, with $6,000,000,000 active ATM, sold over time into the open market. Maybe, it's a better idea to just go long on a stock without the toxic financing... So you can actually benefit from equity appreciation without just being liquidity? It's just so hard to explain to people the nuances in financial dilution who lack the brain cells. And it just so happens $SLNH gets mentioned positively by $BKKT, $IREN investors the moment after they file a $500M ATM since they need exit liquidity. The company is selling offloading shares directly to these idiots.
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SLNH 也是高稀释标的
$SLNH 跟 $BKKT、$ASST 和 $IREN 一样，都是垃圾股。 它正在通过 5 亿美元 ATM 积极稀释所有人。 真不明白为什么还有人听一个一再把散户组合搞崩的人说话。 我就看着他们从散户接盘侠手里融出 5 亿美元，最后把这些人稀释到 0。 然后再说“我们账上有 5 亿美元，所以市值应该更高”，再用这个 ATM 给自己发 SBC。 它们都绝对是很差的多头。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SLNH is a shtco like $BKKT, $ASST, and $IREN. That is actively diluting everyone with a $500M ATM. Not sure why anyone even listens to a guy who has consistently crashed retail portfolios over and over. I’m going to watch them raise $500M off retail bagholders that get diluted to $0. Then say “we have $500m on our balance sheets, MC should be higher” and award themselves SBC off the ATM. They’re all absolutely terrible longs.
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把 BKKT 和 ASST 的循环套路拿来举例。
@LIama002 是啊，听到这个很遗憾。像 $BKKT 和 $ASST 发生过的那样，他们只会继续让大家 HODL，然后往一个 60 亿美元的 ATM 里继续买。 同一个社区团体就是反复干这事，对散户来说极其有毒。
原推 ↗英文原文
@LIama002 Yeah sorry to hear that. Like what happened with $BKKT and $ASST they’ll just keep telling people to HODL and keep buying into a $6,000,000,000 ATM. It’s the same thing on repeat with that community group, and it’s incredibly toxic to retail investors.
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批评投资群组过度稀释股票、骚扰批评者，强调保护散户和自己正确推荐$NBIS的记录。
就像……同样的事情在反复上演，他们每次都用过度的ATM（市场价发行）创造新账户和新股票。 你指出这个问题？无休止的骚扰、死亡威胁、以及新账户刷屏： “别说$IREN、$BKKT、$ASST的坏话，这种骚扰就会停止！” 不在乎？保护散户利益对我来说是第一位的。 我去年推荐$NBIS，到现在涨了60%以上。 去年高峰期跟随那个投资群组的人，因为过度稀释亏损了50%到90%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Like... It’s the same thing on repeat, they create new accounts and new stocks every time with excessive ATMs. You point that out? Endless harassment, death threats, and new account spam: Saying “don’t speak badly about $IREN $BKKT $ASST and this harassment will stop!” Don’t care? Protecting retail interest comes #1 to me. I was suggesting $NBIS last year which is up 60%+. Anyone who followed that investor group last year at the peak are down 50-90% from excessive dilution.
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说卖 IREN/BKKT/ASST 的团体最离谱也最有害。
那个推 $IREN、$BKKT、$ASST 的社区 / KOL 群体，是 X 上最离谱也最有害的一群人。 市场才是真理的终极裁判。 如果某样东西跌了 99%。 而他们接下来继续推的下一只股票，又有 60 亿美元的持续稀释。 而你指出它比同类低了 60%+： 他们只会说“长期投资”或者“你根本不懂！” 或者也许……如果你还有脑子，你就不会想给一个 60 亿美元 ATM 当退出流动性吧？ 我去年对 $BKKT 说过同样的话，也因为这件事被同样的人身攻击。 现在它已经从 40 美元跌到 8 美元，而当初推 $IREN 的还是同一批账号。
原推 ↗英文原文
The community / influencers shilling $IREN, $BKKT, and $ASST are the most delusional and harmful group on X. Markets are the greatest arbiter of truth. If something is down 99%. And the next stock they try pushing has a $6,000,000,000 active dilution. And you show that it’s down 60%+ compared to its peers: they’ll just say “long term investing” or “you don’t know what you’re talking about!” Or maybe… if you had a brain, you don’t want to be exit liquidity for a $6B ATM? I was saying the same thing about $BKKT and received the same personal attacks last year. It’s now down from $40 to $8 from the same group of profiles pushing $IREN today.
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回顾自己把 IQE 看对、BKKT/IREN 被做空群体围攻。
我还记得 X 上一些散户一直把 $IQE 叫成“pump and dump”股票。 而他们自己的简介里却还在抱着 $BKKT 或 $IREN。 很高兴看到 600%+ 的年内表现碾压了其他所有人的表现。 随后机构用历史高位买入的方式验证了我的 thesis。
原推 ↗英文原文
I still remember random retail on X kept calling $IQE a “pump and dump” stock. While they’re busy bagholding $BKKT or $IREN in their bios. Glad to see the 600%+ YTD performance mog everyone else’s performance. With institutions validating my thesis afterward by buying it to ATHs.
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用 BKKT 和 IREN 的例子批评过度稀释。
@SarahLeon28397 我之前在 $BKKT 40 美元和一路因稀释下跌时也说过同样的话。 现在它已经跌到 8 美元以下了。 有意思的是，几个月前那些 $IREN 的账号当时还在卖 Bakkt。 而现在他们又在替 60 亿美元的稀释辩护，尽管前一只股票已经跌掉 90%+ 了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@SarahLeon28397 I said the same thing about $BKKT at $40 and on the way down with dilution. Now it’s <$8. It’s funny that the same $IREN profiles months back where the same ones shilling Bakkt. And they’re the same ones defending a $6,000,000,000 dilution after the former stock crashed 90%+ https://t.co/Iswyeq2tMZ
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指出 IREN 董事会里有同一个人，擅长向散户倾倒 ATM。
除了 Snapchat，也许…… $ASST、$IREN、$BKKT？ Iren 董事会里正好坐着一个共同的家伙。 他最出名的就是把过度 ATM 往散户头上倾倒。
原推 ↗英文原文
Aside from Snapchat, maybe… $ASST, $IREN, $BKKT? There happens to be a common denominator sitting on Iren’s Board of Directors. Famous for dumping excessive ATMs on retail investors. https://t.co/qGCWsGIGXD
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警告$IREN的60亿美元ATM大规模稀释将清算散户股权，历史先例已证明结局惨烈
$IREN 提交了文件，计划以 117 亿美元市值稀释 60 亿美元。 这不是噪音。 这是 Iren 通过向公开市场发售所有新股来变现 4.5GW 容量的方式。 如果你想了解这类操作的历史结果： 看看 $BKKT 在 Mike 手下暴跌 99% 的先例，以及 $IREN 董事会过去大规模 ATM（按市价发行）的历史。或者他最近的公司 $ASST。 这对公司和高管是增值的：因为这清算了所有散户股东，而他们总可以发行 SBC（股权激励）。 所以他们实际上并不在乎股价需要达到什么水平才能发售。 完成之后，他们将拥有 60 亿美元新现金用于扩张，而无需支付利息。 但可转换票据附带利息、以及 $NVDA 资助资产负债表的模式对散户资金好得多的原因是： 因为它不需要清算散户股权就能实现这一点。因为目前看来 $IREN 像是数据中心版的 $AMC，拥有不断缩小的护城河，以及即将有 60 亿美元新股涌入公开市场。 我发帖讨论 $IREN 的原因是： - 人们将 60 亿美元 ATM 视为"噪音"而不予理会 - 它是最受散户欢迎的"抄底"标的之一，而这些散户正在买入一个 60 亿美元稀释机器 - 人们仍然完全不了解其中的风险 - 他们目前的资金量不足以支撑 GPU/GW 容量的货币化 - 他们很可能必须使用 ATM，这不是"选择性" 再次声明：我在这家公司零仓位。 我只是警告散户投资者，这个 ATM 的结构性机制如何通过 60 亿美元以上的 ATM 运作来从结构上抹杀你的股权增值。 因为 $IREN 可能需要在任何价格出售新股来变现他们的 GW，否则就没有必要提交这个文件。 高管们实际上不需要担心，因为他们可以通过发行 SBC 来弥补股价下跌，就像 $SNAP 一样。 如果你还在疑惑你的股权是否会被大规模 ATM 清算： 还有更好的做多选择，比 $IREN 更值得。
原推 ↗英文原文
$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC. That is not noise. This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market. If you want some history on how this turns out: Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST. It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC. So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell. After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest. But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital: Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market. Reason I post about $IREN is because - people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise” - it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine - people still don’t understand the risk at all. - the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization. - they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality” Again: I have zero positions in the company. I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work. Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it. Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP. If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM: There are better longs out there than $IREN.
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概述自己的打法：先识别新兴赛道，再沿整条供应链做多，同时强调风控和透明。
如果你现在还不了解我的风格： 我会先识别即将起来的赛道（光子学、存储、无人机），然后沿着整条供应链去做多。 当然，我也不是每次都对。 $AVAV 和无人机板块是我今年除 $RDDT 外亏得最多的（不过 $OSS 最后涨了 60%+）。 我仍然从基本面上相信像 $AIRO、$LPTH 等公司长期都非常扎实。（$AIRO 现在仍然涨了大约 15%，但它曾经 70%+ 的涨幅大部分都没了，Draganfly 跌得更多。） 而且光看 $SNDK 这种超级周期，就会产生一种非常不现实的预期，觉得每个月都能涨 100%。 我在那个板块里识别的主要催化，是委内瑞拉入侵带来的隐蔽无人机 + 前沿防御合同 / 分包商需求。 我也预期后续会有资金继续流入这个板块。 不过，在格陵兰协议那一段，我提过自己已经开始降风险了（大多数防务承包商都跌了），但我还是保留了像 $AVAV 这种较小仓位。 SCAR 项目输给其他公司，比如 $AVAV，这也是个更大的意外，我亏得更多。 不幸的是，伊朗战争这次主要冲击的是像 L3 Harris、$NOC 这种更大的防务承包商，以及像 Anduril 这样的私营公司，还有一些定向能供应商，比如 $LASR。 所以无人机公司并没有多少顺风修复。 尽管如此，我确实知道怎么止损。 但我还是经常被人喷，说“看你今年早些时候喜欢过的 X 股票”。 在这件事上我很透明：$IREN 社区里某些高管，在他们的粉丝因为 $BKKT 或 $ASST 稀释后亏掉 90% 之后，会把所有帖子都删掉。 我挑的多数股票基本面都非常扎实，所以从最初 thesis 出来以后，它们要么守住了自己的价位。 而且我也会把风险等级 / 信念等级一起写出来（风险高的当然下行也更大）。 我比那些只会发热评的人更有 skin in the game。 所以如果我的 thesis 错了，我自己也会亏钱（这种例子还有很多，像 $AVAV 这种就是无穷无尽的亏损）。 但我会把所有东西都留着，让你们自己看事情最后怎么演变。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you don't know my style by now: I identify upcoming sectors (photonics, memory, drones), then go long on the entire supply chain. I'm not always right, though. $AVAV and the drone sectors were my biggest losses this year outside of $RDDT ( $OSS did end up 60%+ ). I still believe fundamentally companies like $AIRO, $LPTH and others are extremely solid long term. ( $AIRO is still up ~15%, but lost majority of it's 70%+ gains, Draganfly dropped way more) And there's very unrealistic expectations from looking at $SNDK supercycles that everything can go up 100% a month. The main catalyst I've identified around that sector was the Venezuela invasion's usage of hidden drone + edge defense contracts/subcontractors. And I expected there to be follow-up funding into the sector. However, I mentioned I de-risked around the Greenland deal (majority of defense contractors crashed) but kept smaller concentration in stuff like $AVAV. SCAR program loss to others like $AVAV was even a bigger surprise and I lost even more. Unfortunately, the War in Iran focused around larger defense contractors like L3 Harris, $NOC and private companies like Anduril, and some energy directed suppliers like $LASR. So there weren't many tailwind recoveries for drone companies. That being said, I do know how to cut losses. But I still get a lot of crap saying oh look at "X stock they've liked earlier in the year". I'm very transparent when it comes to these things: A certain executive in the $IREN community are known to delete all their posts after their followers lose 90% on $BKKT or $ASST post-dilution. Majority of my stocks I identify are extremely solid fundamentally so they either hold their level since my original thesis. And I post risk-levels / conviction-levels with them too (risky ones obviously have more downside). I have skin in the game compared to others that just post hot takes. So if my thesis is wrong, I lose money personally (there's ton of more fills like this, just endless losses on $AVAV). But I leave everything up so you can see how things play out.
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博主回应攻击，重申对IREN等股ATM稀释的警告是出于散户利益。
谢谢，听到那个消息很遗憾。我只是试图对自动取款机(ATM)增发稀释提出合理的警告。去年我在$BKKT上也做过同样的事，当时ATM增发让所有人的股票跌入深渊。但我现在对$IREN发出警告时，却遭遇了同样的个人攻击。尽管被辱骂，我仍然站在散户投资者的最佳利益立场。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks and sorry to hear that. I’m just trying to give justified warnings about ATM dilution. I did the same with $BKKT last year before ATMs sent everyone’s shares to oblivion. But got the same personal attacks like I’m getting with $IREN now. Regardless still looking for retail’s best interest despite the name calling.
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BKKT等公司利用热点炒作后通过ATM减持，散户受损严重。
纵观 $BKKT、$ASST 以及可能的 $IREN，其策略如出一辙。围绕热门叙事（比特币库藏、AI 智能体、数据中心）制造巨大的散户炒作热度，等待股价飙升，随后立即通过定向增发(ATM)抛售股份以资助运营并支付高管基于股票的薪酬(SBC)。公司本身没问题，但个体散户股东受到的伤害最大。
原推 ↗英文原文
Across $BKKT, $ASST, and maybe $IREN. The strategy has been identical. Generate massive retail hype around a hot narrative (Bitcoin treasuries, AI agents, DCs), wait for the stock to spike, and immediately dump shares via ATMs to fund operations and pay executive SBCs. The companies themselves are fine but the individual retail shareholder is left hurt the most.
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反驳对IREN和BKKT风险的忽视，指出巨额烧钱和管理层关联。
@JC_GetRichSlow 当存在60亿美元的重大现金消耗(ATM)时，这并没有为讨论增添任何价值。 此外，$IREN 管理层还参与了 $BKKT 等公司，这也是公开信息。 将明显的风险和历史记录斥为“散布恐慌”是无关紧要的。 https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
原推 ↗英文原文
@JC_GetRichSlow It’s not adding nothing to the dialogue when there’s a material $6 Billion USD ATM. It’s also public information $IREN management was involved companies $BKKT as well. Dismissing clear risks and track records as “fearmongering” is immaterial. https://t.co/QifmHkAkfR
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指出IREN管理层过往记录公开，质疑信任其处理稀释的论点。
尽管你可以随意发表看法，但这无法改变事实。关于 $IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的过往记录，所有信息都是公开的。如果某人的核心论点是“信任管理层能处理好稀释问题”，那么了解这一点确实至关重要。
原推 ↗英文原文
Feel free to say whatever you want, but it doesn’t change the reality of things. It’s all public information with $IREN management track record with $BKKT and $ASST. It’s definitely important to know if someone is making the primary argument of trusting in management to handle dilution
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警告 IREN 60 亿 ATM 稀释将重创散户，勿盲目信任管理层。
支持 Iren 进行 60 亿美元稀释的主要论点是： “信任 $IREN 管理层对稀释的管理能力。” 如果你查看 IREN 管理层在 $BKKT 和 $ASST 上的实际历史： 这两家公司都通过自动做市商(ATM)发行彻底摧毁了股东价值。 导致所有原始散户股份价值下跌 98-99%。 像 Bakkt 这样的公司表现尚可。 但高管的股票薪酬 + 稀释抹去了散户的所有股权价值。 如果一家公司申请 60 亿美元的 ATM 稀释，你应该预期他们会使用它并据此调整仓位。 也许 $IREN 的结果会不同。 但一边说“信任管理层”，一边看这些炒作型散户股票的管理层记录 -> ATM 稀释抹去所有价值的情况已多次发生。 公司最终可能没事，别把这和你的股票表现混为一谈。 我最关心散户股东胜过公司高管，这就是我分享关于 $IREN 60 亿 ATM 的红旗信号的原因。
原推 ↗英文原文
The primary argument for Iren’s $6B dilution was: “Trust in $IREN management with managing dilution.” If you look at the actual history of IREN management with: $BKKT and $ASST. Both companies have completely obliterated shareholder value from ATM dilution. Dropping all original retail share value down by 98-99%. Companies like Bakkt have been doing okay. But both stock based compensation to executives + dilution wiped out all equity value from retail. If a company files for $6 Billion in ATM dilution, you should expect them to use it and position accordingly. Maybe $IREN turns out differently. But saying “Trust in Management” then looking at the track record of management of hype retail stocks -> ATM dilution wiping out all value has happened multiple times. The company will likely end up fine don’t conflate that with the performance of your shares. I care the most about retail shareholders over corporate executives, which is why I’m sharing the red flag about $IREN $6B ATM.
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批评某人在多只股票中稀释散户，认为其毫无信誉。
@Mr_Derivatives 鉴于他通过 $BKKT、$ASST 以及现在的 $IREN 将散户持仓稀释至零的过往记录，此人已毫无信誉可言。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives Given his track history of diluting retail to zero with $BKKT, $ASST, and now $IREN, the guy has zero credibility anymore.
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质疑BKKT和IREN借名人效应吸引散户后恶意稀释股权。
@wilson_eth 感觉像 $BKKT 或 $IREN 这样的公司聘请那位人士，只是为了吸引新的散户买家，然后将其无限稀释。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wilson_eth Feels like companies like $BKKT or $IREN only bring the guy on so they can get new retail buyers then dilute them to oblivion
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
原推 ↗英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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澄清BKKT跌幅时区差异，指出散户面临新股增发抛压。
是的，你说得对，$BKKT 较昨日下跌了 25%，这反映了 $HOOD 的时区差异。话虽如此，但这并不改变帖子的核心观点。人们可以自由行事，这里只是提供他们历史行为的信息。散户可以自由买入刚刚增发并将在公开市场抛售的 3 亿美元新股。这种事年年都在发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes you’re right $BKKT is down 25% from yesterday, this is timezone difference which $HOOD is reflecting. That being said nothing about point of the post changes. People are free to do whatever they want, this is just information about their history. Retail are free to buy into $300m of new shares that just got printed + will be sold onto the open market. This happens year after year.
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批评$BKKT相关人士删帖行为，质疑其留在$IREN董事会的合理性。
这家伙在$BKKT股价因基于虚假信息的无休止吹嘘而暴跌后，删除了他所有的帖子。 我完全不明白@danroberts0101为什么还让他留在$IREN的董事会，这看起来太糟糕了。 信息发现和吹嘘是有区别的。 声称听到内部人士谈论无法应对的过度需求等无法验证的言论 -> 股价上涨。然后在FOMO（错失恐惧症）后股价暴跌时删除帖子，这简直大错特错。
原推 ↗英文原文
The guy deleted all his posts after $BKKT stock crashed after the incessant shill from made up information. I have zero clue why @danroberts0101 keeps him on $IREN’s board since it’s a terrible look. There’s a difference between information discovery and shilling. Saying made up unverifiable statements about hearing insider talk about too much demand they can’t keep up -> stock rallies. Then deleting the posts after it crashes post fomo is just so wrong.
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BKKT因ATM增发暴跌，警示散户警惕有毒融资结构。
$BKKT 盘前下跌 -23.87%，原因是新一轮 $300M 的自动取款机(ATM)增发稀释。在我看来，这是整个市场中表现最糟糕的公司之一。我为那些在 $45 时跟随某位网红(influencer)买入的散户感到难过，因为他们的投资组合现在已亏损超过 64%。这是一个无尽的循环：新闻引发的错失恐惧(FOMO) -> ATM/大规模稀释，这只会伤害散户。以下是 $BKKT 试图不断掩盖的历史：2024年2月：通过注册直接发行(registered direct offering)发行约 140 万股 + 认股权证。2025年7月：在股价约 $24 时，通过 $75M 的公开发行又发行约 675 万股 + 预融资认股权证(pre-funded warrants)，但以约 $10（60%+折扣）的价格卖给机构。9月：Mike Alfred 加入 -> 他开始每天发布关于该股的帖子。管理层在股价上涨后试图向高管发行 24% 的稀释性奖励以进行套现。今天：当市值仅为 $500m 时，$300 Million 的 ATM 被倾倒在公开市场上，由散户接盘。$BKKT 是我见过的最大的散户资本毁灭公司之一。股票本应是人人受益的正和博弈，但这看起来只是从散户口袋到高管的价值转移。网红推广后 -> ATM 或高管授予稀释。我没有任何持仓，但作为旁观者：这是为什么你应该对融资结构完全有毒的公司进行独立研究(Do Your Own Research)的完美例子。
原推 ↗英文原文
$BKKT is down -23.87% premarket after a new $300M ATM dilution. In my opinion, this is one of the worst companies in the entire market. I feel sorry for people who followed a certain influencer at $45 since retail portfolios are now wiped over 64%. There’s an endless cycle of news fomo -> ATM/massive dilution that only harms retail. This is the history $BKKT endlessly tries to hide: Feb 2024: Issued ~1.4M shares + warrants in a registered direct offering. Jul 2025: Issued another ~6.75M shares + pre-funded warrants in a $75M public offering, when the stock was trading around $24, but sold them to institutions at ~$10 (60%+ discount). September: Mike Alfred joins -> he starts posting about the stock every day. Management after rally tries to issue 24% dilution awards to executives to sell Today: $300 Million ATM dumped in the public market on retail, when MC is only $500m $BKKT so far is of the biggest retail capital destruction companies I’ve seen. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits, but this just looks like a value transfer from retail pockets to executives. After influencer promotion -> ATM or executive grant dilution I have zero positions but as a spectator: This is the perfect example of why you should do your own research into companies that have completely toxic financing structures
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批评迈克是骗子，但承认其投资观点可能正确。
我认为那些急于为他辩护的人是在回避那些让迈克成为江湖骗子的明显事实： - 隐藏那些在实质内容上真实的帖子（例如 $BKKT 的稀释历史） - 搞虚假 giveaways 然后删除它们 - 虚假的互动诱饵（例如 OP 指出的那样）。 两件事可以同时成立：某人可能是一个可疑的混蛋，同时在他的论点帖子中持有正确的方向性观点。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think the people who jump to his defense are sidestepping the obvious things that make Mike a snake oil salesman - hiding posts that are materially true (eg. $BKKT dilution history) - fake giveaways and then deleting them - fake engagement bait (eg. What OP pointed out). Two things can be true, someone can be a sketchy piece of crap and can have correct directional opinions with thesis posts
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博主调整ETF持仓：大幅加仓AMD及新购多只AI/能源股，减仓部分股票以进行税务亏损收割。
哇，我在这个ETF上操作得极其激进，一切都涨得**很多。 不管怎样，以下是一些我会做的公司调整及解释： $AMD - +10%（重新评级） $FLY - +3%（新增） $WLAC - +1%（新增） $MU - +1%（新增） $FLNC - .5%（新增） $SEI - .5%（新增） $DFLI - - .25%（新增） _ 减仓（进行税务亏损收割 Tax harvesting） $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP 其他小盘股 _ 以下是解释 $AMD - 刚刚获得了1000多亿美元的前瞻性收入，他们的季度收入几乎一夜之间翻倍，而且市场甚至还没有定价。极强的买入信号 $FLY - 44亿美元估值，从事类似$RKLB的小型至中型发射任务。让我想起RocketLab刚起步的时候，风险回报比很好。 $WLAC - Neocloud IPO，估值6亿美元（很低），EBITDA毛利率75%+，营收同比增长250%，很可能由Mag7（七大科技巨头）提供保底支持 $MU - 鉴于Stargate + OpenAI所需的基础设施量，内存需求旺盛 $FLNC + $SEI - 能源板块（高风险高回报） $DLFI - 电池板块（高风险高回报） 减仓 $ORCL - 在GPU建设方面遇到困难，这正好显示了超大规模云服务商和像$NBIS这样的Neocloud之间的护城河。直接购买Neocloud有更高的上行空间。 $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - 涨幅不大，我们要尽可能激进地持有赢家，并在完成税务亏损收割后回购，例如换成$AMD，以及获得更高回报的三次降息收益。 将在年底完成税务亏损收割后回购。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
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博主分享了一份包含多只股票权重的投资组合分散化示例。
@DigestingX 我在这里写了一个投资组合分散化的例子：https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29 （引用内容：我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合是：30% $NBIS，6% AMZN，5.5% TSM，5% BTC，5% LULU，4% UNH，4% $RKLB，4% LTC，3% ORCL，3% TGT，3% GRAB，2% $IREN，2% META，2% HOOD，2% HIMS，2% AMD，2% NVO，1.5% CRDO，1% BITF，1% ASTS，1% SG，1% UPWK，1% MP，1% FOUR，1% ETOR，1% INTC，1% COIN，1% SMCI，1% MRVL，1% DAVE，0.5% DLO，0.5% MELI，0.5% SNAP，0.5% CRWV，0.2% ONDS，0.2% NFE，0.2% TSSI，0.2% BKKT，0.2% GRRR）
原推 ↗英文原文
@DigestingX I wrote an example of portfolio diversification here https://t.co/R7eMeeqR29
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指出某股虽适合短期交易，但因稀释股权不适合长期持有。
@GClandesti37321 没问题，任何一家市值4000万美元的上市公司都有其存在的原因。 当然可以权衡风险收益比，但类似于 $BKKT 那样不断稀释股东权益的公司，它是一笔有趣的短期交易，却是极差的长期持有标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@GClandesti37321 no problem, there's always a reason why something is a 40m market cap publicly traded company. can always take the risk/reward but similar to $BKKT that always dilutes their shareholders, it's a fun short term trade, terrible long term hold.
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分享9/25市场观点、定投计划及详细投资组合权重。
9月25日的每日思考+市场下跌分析，如果你喜欢我的见解： 1. 三次降息（Triple rate cut）的概率从65%降至56%。这影响很大，因为人们正在提前交易（front-running）降息预期。无论如何，任何降息通常都会带来大量资金流入，因此对几个月后的市场总体看涨。鲍威尔关于市场估值过高的观点在某些股票上确实成立。Oklo、Quantum等严重高估，但我从不做空。甚至像RKLB这样我喜欢的股票也严重高估。但由于通胀，场外资金太多，除了股票、房地产和BTC外别无他物可持。三次降息意味着他们希望“抢椅子游戏”（musical chairs）再持续8个月。我会开始担心明年夏天。 2. 市场过去两天下跌，我会利用这个机会在$Z下跌15%后定投（DCA），或在$NBIS下跌5%后买入AMZN。我仍需研究$CIFR，因此在下跌17.5%后还不能完全有信心推荐（暂时），如果我喜欢它，我可能会隔夜买入。还有很多有趣的标的可以波段交易，比如RKLB。我仍在等待下个月TGT的六位数看涨期权收益，因为11月的股息。大家都在加载AMZN的看涨期权，但像GOOGL一样，它可能会跌至$210->$200的水平，人们放弃后开始一波愚蠢的反弹。这就是为什么我说如果跌更多就换成看涨期权。 3. 大量税务亏损收割（tax harvesting）正在进行。如果你有耐心等4个月，像ETOR、TGT、LULU这样被低估的公司可能会恢复，但显然除非你使用杠杆+期权，否则不会获得600%+的收益。对于耐心的投资者来说，现在是囤货的好时机。 4. 我一直主张在市场放弃时（例如以太坊$1600）在低位买入，而当Bitmine出现新叙事时，在$4k+卖出是好的时机。即使跌至$3.5k我也不会抄底。我对此有一个完整的论点，但留到另一天再说。这与NBIS不同，后者投机性较低，比如一个170亿美元的合同流入一家市值250亿美元的公司，这只是执行+等待的问题。仍在等待LTC，小市值，市场仍定价90%的ETF获批。几个月后LTC可能会有一个新的Bitmine，凭借小市值可以大幅反弹。 5. 我从未见过除了“ thirst traps”（诱惑照）之外，书签数超过点赞数的帖子，所以你们一定喜欢我的投资组合权重！你已经看到我在这里做日内交易：https://t.co/AjTB69Na65，但每次改变头寸都进行喊单有点烦人，所以我更喜欢只发布一般性见解+论点。 6. 市场定价的是远期收入，即使你今天看到NBIS、TSM等下跌，它们基本面很好，可能会继续上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights: 1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now. Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally bullish for markets months out. Powell's thoughts about market being overvalued holds kind of true for certain stocks. Oklo, Quantum, etc. way too overvalued but never short. Even stuff i love like RKLB, really overvalued. But there's too much money flowing on sidelines, nothing else to hold other than stocks, real estate, btc, because of all the inflation. Triple rate cut implies they want to keep musical chairs running for another 8 moths. I'd start to worry around Summer next year. 2. Market droplast two days, I'd use the opportunity to DCA into $Z after 15% drop, AMZN, or $NBIS after 5%. I still need to research $CIFR so can't really full conviction recommend it after a 17.5% drop (yet), if I like it I'd probably buy overnight. Lot of fun things to swing trade like RKLB on the side. I'm still waiting next month for 6 figures in TGT calls, cause of Nov dividend. Everyone's loading AMZN calls now, but like GOOGL it will might drop to levels like $210 -> $200, where people give up then start some stupid rally. That's kinda why I said shares into calls if it drops more. 3. Lot of tax harvesting taking place. If you have the patience to wait 4 months, lot of undervalued companies like ETOR, TGT, LULU, will likely recover but obviously won't net 600%+ gains unless you do leverage + options. Great time to stock up if you're a patient investor. 4. I've always maintained you should buy stuff at the lows when market gives up on it (eg. Ethereum $1600), and when there's a new narrative with Bitmine, it's a good time to sell at $4k+. I wouldn't buy the dip even if it drops to $3.5k. I have a whole thesis on this but I'll save this for another day. This is only different if it's less speculative like NBIS, like a literal $17B contract flowing into a 25B marketcap company and it's just a matter of execution + waiting. Still waiting for LTC, small marketcap, market still pricing in 90% etf approval. There's likely going to be a new BItmine for Litcoin in a few months, and with a small MC can rally quite a bit. 5. I've never seen a post get more bookmarks than likes other than thirst traps, so you all must like my portfolio weighting! You've already seen me day trade here: https://t.co/AjTB69Na65 but it's a little annoying for me to do call-outs every time I change positions so I'd prefer to just post general insights + thesis. 6. Market prices in forward revenue, even if you see stuff like NBIS, TSM and stuff dropping today, they're great fundamentally and will likely keep going up.
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博主分享其包含NBIS等39只标的的具体投资组合权重配置。
我收到了很多关于股票权重的提问。我会构建的投资组合如下： 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR
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揭露$BKKT长期折价稀释股东权益，警示散户远离虚假宣传。
X 上像 @mikealfred 这样粉丝最多的股票账号，竟然隐藏关于不利事实的回复并拉黑账号，这真是有趣。这正是我创建此账号的原因——揭露虚假宣传并真诚地帮助大家。 以下是他们试图隐藏的内容：$BKKT 有着长期稀释股东权益的记录： 2024年2月：通过注册直接发行(Registered Direct Offering)发行约140万股及权证。 2025年7月：在股价约24美元时，通过7500万美元的公开发行(IPO/Secondary Offering)再次发行约675万股及预融资权证(Pre-funded Warrants)，但以约10美元（60%以上折扣）卖给机构，导致散户巨额亏损。 这并非新事，几乎每年都是同样的模式：通过营销炒作散户 -> 发行折价股票以筹集现金 -> 循环往复。 提醒一下，X 上充斥着虚假宣传。请谨慎选择信息来源。
原推 ↗英文原文
It's funny how the most followed stock accounts on X like @mikealfred hide replies about inconvenient facts and block accounts. That’s exactly why I created this account — to call out BS and genuinely help you all. This is what they tried hiding: $BKKT has a long track record of diluting shareholders: Feb 2024: Issued ~1.4M shares + warrants in a registered direct offering. Jul 2025: Issued another ~6.75M shares + pre-funded warrants in a $75M public offering, when the stock was trading around $24, but sold them to institutions at ~$10 (60%+ discount), triggering massive losses for retail. And this isn’t new, the pattern has been the same almost every year: hype retail with marketing -> issue discounted stock to raise cash -> repeat. Just a reminder X is full of snake oil. Be careful where you get your information from.
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批评博主炒作有稀释历史的低市值股BKKT
@mikealfred 令人遗憾的是，你正在炒作一只市值较低且有过向股东稀释股权历史的股票。这是一个炒作循环——股价上涨——以当前价格稀释70%——股东被坑。其他股票的分析逻辑不错，但BKKT是在向粉丝糟糕地吹票。
原推 ↗英文原文
@mikealfred It's sad how you're pumping a low mc stock that has a history of dumping dilution on shareholders. It's a cycle of hype -> stock rises -> dilution 70% under current prices -> shareholders get screwed. Decent thesis with other stocks but BKKT is a terrible shill to followers
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持有IBIT和LTC多头，看好LTC受降息及ETF催化重上250美元。
是的，我持有多头 $IBIT 和 $LTC。$BKKT 是我唯一考虑重新进入的加密小盘股。但由于稀释风险，我从不长期持有。莱特币(Litecoin) 受益于降息顺风、LTC 储备以及下个月 LTC ETF 的催化剂。它只需要一个像 $BMNR 那样的叙事，就能再次突破 $250+。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yeah I'm long $IBIT and $LTC. $BKKT only crypto small cap I'd consider re-entering. Never long though because of dilution. Litecoin gets rate cut tailwind, LTC reserves, and LTC ETF next month as catalysts. Just needs a narrative like $BMNR to go $250+ again.
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博主列出各领域高增长潜力股，预测5年千倍回报。
基于当前估值，我5年1000%回报的“登月”组合(Moonshot baskets)。 太空 - $RKLB (2200亿) AI - $CRWV (4700亿) 半导体(Semi) - $CREDO (2000亿), $TSSI (38亿) 加密货币(Crypto) - $BKKT (18亿) 金融科技(Fintech) - $DJT (490亿) 社交(Social) - $BMBL (62亿) 健康(Health) - $HIMS (950亿) 软件(Software) - $UPWK (190亿) 你们的选择是什么？
原推 ↗英文原文
My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?
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点评 TSSI、BKKT 及 Moonshot 的市值与前景。
TSSI 在市值约 2 亿美元时确实令人惊叹。 BKKT 2025 年第一季度的净营业亏损为 -1900 万美元，但比特币升值加上成本削减应该能帮他们一把，毕竟他们只有 2 亿美元的小市值。 Moonshot 要么市值达到 25 亿美元（从当前水平涨 10 倍），要么破产。
原推 ↗英文原文
TSSI is quite amazing back when they were $200m or so. BKKT has -19M net operating income loss for Q1 2025 but Bitcoin appreciation + cost cutting should help them out a bit with their small $200m market cap. Moonshot is a 2.5B market cap (10x from here) or bankruptcy.
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分享持有的微盘股及BKKT做空与加密行情逻辑
不能在WSB讨论微盘股，但如果你好奇： 我持有的只有三只：$BKKT（$12）、$TSSI（$8）、$BKSY（$11）。 对于BKKT，超过21%的公司股份被做空，且加密货币公司表现良好。我不建议追高，但持有少量仓位也不算最糟。https://t.co/yIzRzMAMD9
原推 ↗英文原文
Can't talk about microcaps on WSB, but if you're curious: Only three I've owned are $BKKT ($12), $TSSI ($8), $BKSY ($11). For BKKT, 21%+ of the company is sold short and crypto companies are doing well. I don't recommend chasing but not the worst to have small positions. https://t.co/yIzRzMAMD9