杂谈
日常、致谢与其他 · 共 1564 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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博主用游戏经历类比，表示能忍受网络评论区的恶意攻击。
@zzakzzak111 如果我能应付0-10战绩的德莱文辅助，我也能应付X评论区里的喷子。
英文原文
@zzakzzak111 If I can deal with 0-10 Draven supports, I can deal with trolls in the comment sections on X.
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博主庆祝粉丝破百万，感谢早期支持者及大家的鼓励。
@pepemoonboy 非常感谢！达到 100 万粉丝对我来说是一个相当了不起的里程碑，因为我将其视为我的观点值得关注的反映！ 也始终感激像你这样的早期朋友帮助我在该平台起步。 我也很想回复大家所有鼓励的信息，但现在评论实在太多了哈哈。 所以我就在这里尽力感谢每一位的善意言辞。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thank you so much! It’s a pretty incredible milestone for me to reach 1M since I treat it as a reflection that my ideas are worth paying attention to! And always appreciate my early friends such as yourself for helping me getting started on this platform. I’d love to respond to all the encouraging messages from everyone else too, but there’s too many comments now haha. So I’ll just try my best to than everyone here for the kind words.
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博主庆祝粉丝破百万，感谢全球读者对AI供应链研究的支持。
天哪……我们达到了100万粉丝！ 真不敢相信有这么多人关心我关于AI瓶颈(AI chokepoints)和瓶颈环节(bottlenecks)的观点。 从基板(substrates)、激光器(lasers)、执行器(actuators)、内存(memory)、电源(power)到上游供应链(upstream supply chains)中一些最细分的环节。 一路上分享免费观点并追踪它们随时间是否得到验证，这让我乐在其中。 很多观点应验了，有些没有，有些仍在发展中！ 但老实说，今年这种关注对我而言是个巨大的惊喜，尤其是来自全球各地，从瑞典、日本、韩国到中国。 感谢大家的支持！我很快会宣布一些庆祝事宜。
英文原文
Holy... We've reached 1,000,000 followers! It's genuinely incredible that so many people care to read about my ideas around AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. From substrates, lasers, actuators, memory, power to some of the most niche parts of upstream supply chains. I've had a lot of fun sharing free thoughts I've come across along the way and tracking whether they get validated over time. A lot worked out, some haven't, and some are still playing out! But honestly, all of this attention has come as a massive surprise to me this year, especially globally, from Sweden, Japan, Korea, to China. Thank you for all your support! I'll be announcing something soon to celebrate.
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博主简单回复确认。
@HenilPatel20864 是的
英文原文
@HenilPatel20864 Yes
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博主暗示目标即将达成，未指明具体标的。
我们快到了……
英文原文
We're almost there...
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讽刺 Barrons 招聘非专业人士研究光学供应链，双方均表示不懂。
Be Barrons: - 想写关于像 $AAOI 这样的光学供应链的文章 - 招聘 DPT：谁需要工程师来写这种简单的事？让我们找被低估的政治哲学背景的人。 - 结果发现新雇员来自非营利组织沟通咨询 - 上班第一天：带薪建模收入增长/利润率预测、CW 激光器（连续波激光器）瓶颈、内部产能 - 新雇员：“我不懂这鬼东西”，“看起来像模因股（memestock）” Barrons：“模因股？看起来像我们要写的下一篇文章，我也不懂”。
英文原文
Be Barrons: - Wants to write about optical supply supply chains like $AAOI - Hiring DPT: who needs engineers to write about this something this simple? Let’s find underpaid political philosophy backgrounds. - proceeds to find a new hire from nonprofit communication consulting - first day on job: gets paid to model revenue ramp/margins projections, CW laser bottlenecks, internal capacity - New hire: “I don’t understand this sht”, “looks like a memestock” Barrons: “Memestock? looks like our next article, I don’t understand either”.
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博主发起互动，询问粉丝当前信心最高的股票及理由。
好了各位，又到了每月的这个时候。你目前信心最足（最高确信度）的股票是哪只？为什么？我通过阅读这些内容确实能学到很多，所以请分享一些有趣的观点。
英文原文
All right chat, it’s that time of the month again. What’s your #1 highest conviction stock and why? I actually learn a lot from reading these, so share some cool ideas.
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博主澄清推文为讽刺伯里交易，提醒勿当真。
@MDjavanmard 这是一条关于迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）做多 $LULU 做空 $NBIS 交易的讽刺内容，如果你没看懂这个梗的话（千万别当真）。
英文原文
@MDjavanmard This is satire about Michael Burry's long $LULU short $NBIS trade if you didn't get the reference (don't actually take this post seriously).
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调侃AAOI名称难读，无人日常提及。
我依然坚信，在现实生活中没人知道怎么发音或谈论 $AAOI。它比 $TSM 或 $AMD 多一个字母。而且没人会对朋友说：“哇，我喜欢应用光电（Applied Optoelectronics）！”
英文原文
I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”
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贝森特称或将于本周达成霍尔木兹海峡通行协议，市场或利好。
贝森特表示：“周二或周三可能会达成协议，以恢复霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)的自由通行。” 我认为市场可能会喜欢听到这个消息。 https://t.co/qXc8u2050N
英文原文
Bessent says: "There may be deal Tuesday or Wednesday to open Strait of Hormuz with freedom of movement" I think markets might like the sound of this. https://t.co/qXc8u2050N
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空头势力消退，市场情绪回暖。
空头们又回去冬眠了。
英文原文
The bears have gone back into hibernation
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特朗普宣布取消对伊打击并达成核协议，博主感叹世事多变。
特朗普宣布美国已取消对伊朗的打击行动。 并表示双方已就协议的框架达成一致，以开放海峡并终止核计划。 过去6个月里，还有谁觉得自己老了好几岁吗？ https://t.co/4PK671c548
英文原文
Trump announced that US has cancelled its attack on Iran. And that they’ve agreed to the perimeters of a deal to open the Strait and end the nuclear program. Anyone else feel like they’ve aged a few years in the past 6 months? https://t.co/4PK671c548
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博主感叹深度研究常被媒体误读为迷因股，故对他人遭遇有同理心。
@Jacktecau990 我并不惊讶。我可以去参加会议进行共封装光学(CPO)渠道调研，发现独特的超大规模云服务商供应链联系并随后得到证实，进行晶圆收入建模，构思通过并购实现收入增长的策略，通过相关员工关系(ER)电话会议记录/SEC文件持续检查出货量时间表，通过机构研报进行竞争对手分析，进行总可寻址市场(TAM)分析。然后免费发布这些论点。然而媒体却忽略所有底层工作，将这一想法标签化为单纯的“迷因股”。如果它出现回调，即使处于早期阶段，我也会在X上遭受大量人身攻击。所以我对他人有更多的同理心。
英文原文
@Jacktecau990 I'm not surprised. I could go to conferences to do CPO channel checks, find unique hyperscaler supply chain links that later get confirmed, do wafer revenue modeling, think of a strategy for revenue ramping through M&A, constantly check volume timelines through related ER transcripts/SEC filings, competitor analysis through institutional notes, TAM analysis. Then post that thesis all for free over time. Only for media media ignore all the underlying work then label the idea as just a meme stock. And if it ever corrects, I get a bunch of personal attacks on X, even if it's early in the timeline. So I have more empathy than others.
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驳斥媒体对 Leopold 的恶意攻击，肯定其独特策略与优异业绩。
媒体对 Leopold 的定性以及 X 上的反应简直荒谬。将他从 $SNDK 到 $BE 的成功多年论点框架描述为“崩溃”或“失败”。在 7 月令人惊讶的暴跌后，再对他进行人身攻击，目睹这一切真是可悲。这几乎就像每个人都在为他人的倒台欢呼。是的，7 月的暴跌暴露了 SA（Serenity Asset Management）在杠杆、流动性管理和对冲方面的问题。但他目前的年初至今（YTD）表现仍为 +80%，位列表现最好的对冲基金之列。而且经历这一切后，他仍然持有公开股票（只是去除了杠杆）。我认为他正在做独特且成功的事情。而这引来了他人的嫉妒。
英文原文
The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious. Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure". After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness. It's almost like everyone is cheering for the downfall of others. Yes, July's crash exposed problems with SA’s leverage, liquidity management, and hedging. But his current YTD performance remains +80%, ranking among the best performing hedge funds. And he still has public equities after all this (just removed leverage). I think he's doing something unique while being successful at it. And this draws the envy of others.
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博主调侃需靠运气才能清仓仅持有一股的IREN。
@SammyJ51 Kenneth 需要施展一些魔法，才能让我清掉我持有的 1 股 $IREN。
英文原文
@SammyJ51 Kenneth will need to do some magic to liquidate me of my 1 $IREN share.
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调侃AXTI单日暴涨64%是美股常态。
@tsorfF7 $AXTI 今天 casually（随意地）涨了 64% 哈哈，你们的市场里这只是平常的一天。 https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ
英文原文
@tsorfF7 $AXTI casually up 64% today lol, just a normal day in your markets. https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ
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Citadel清算情境感知基金后，AI及半导体板块次日大幅反弹。
Citadel 真的刚刚清算了 Situational Awareness（情境感知基金）…… 然后在第二天拉起了整个市场？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 以及其他许多股票。这必须是我见过的最疯狂的清算之一 https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
英文原文
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve https://t.co/CeHGSjnIsm
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博主调侃有人没看懂推文中的梗。
@blackwalletfr 有人没看懂这个梗 https://t.co/l5ph939UxK
英文原文
@blackwalletfr Someone didnt get the reference https://t.co/l5ph939UxK
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博主买入1股IREN以声援其持有者。
为了向 $IREN 的持有者表示声援：我现在持有了 1 股 IREN。
英文原文
To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN.
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美联储维持利率不变，市场已消化预期，等待主席讲话。
美联储将利率维持在 3.50% - 3.75% 不变。 目前情况良好，因为如果立即加息，市场本会抛售（似乎已经大幅提前消化了加息预期）。 现在大家都在等待美联储主席的讲话。 https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb
英文原文
Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now. https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb
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博主分享过去两周经历三次手术，状态不佳。
@KostasMoschovas 过去两周做了3次手术！日子过得并不轻松
英文原文
@KostasMoschovas Had 3 surgeries in the past 2 weeks! Not having a fun time
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CMXT 上市暴涨近 5 倍，博主调侃并询问中国粉丝是否参与。
哇，$CMXT 今天上市后涨幅非常“正常”，达到了 +469.98%。 现在估值约为 4873.1 亿美元，从 855 亿美元上涨而来。 我的中国粉丝中有谁参与了这次 IPO 认购吗？ https://t.co/TlibjHe799
英文原文
Wow, $CMXT is up a very normal +469.98% after going public today. Now valuing it at ~$487.31 billion, up from $85.5 billion. Did any of my Chinese followers buy into the IPO? https://t.co/TlibjHe799
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黄仁勋首次入驻X平台并分享开放模型信件。
$NVDA 的 Jensen 首次加入 X，分享了他关于开放模型(open models)的信。
英文原文
Jensen from $NVDA has joined X for the first time to share his letter on open models.
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博主提及向 Lisa 介绍头巾市场的潜在规模。
@jukan05 我特意向 Lisa 提到了头巾（bandana）的潜在市场规模（TAM）。
英文原文
@jukan05 I made sure to tell Lisa about the bandana TAM potential.
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转发AMD推文，表达情感共鸣。
转发 @AMD：这种感觉是相互的。
英文原文
RT @AMD : The feelings mutual.
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博主称赞AMD社媒团队，调侃其周边产品比芯片更抢手。
@beauty_oe 特别向 $AMD 超酷的社会媒体团队致敬！Lisa 做的头巾确实很酷，可能比他们的 CPU/加速器卖得还快。https://t.co/tY7VRyOnC9
英文原文
@beauty_oe Special shoutout to the super cool social media team at $AMD! Lisa does make cool bandanas, probably would sell out faster than their CPUs/accelerators. https://t.co/tY7VRyOnC9
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博主收到AMD限量周边，表示喜爱AMD及CEO苏姿丰。
$AMD 直接联系我，送了我一些特别周边！ 据说这种头巾他们只做了 30 条？ 我现在超爱 AMD 和苏姿丰。 https://t.co/KgcYjBUcTv
英文原文
$AMD reached out directly to hand me some special swag! Apparently they only made 30 of these bandanas? I love AMD and Lisa Su now. https://t.co/KgcYjBUcTv
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博主调侃被误认为是AI代理
@ShantMac15111 有这么多人认为我是一个人工智能代理(AI agent)吗，哈哈
英文原文
@ShantMac15111 Did this many people think I was an AI agent lol
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博主在活动中偶遇AMD高管，感叹其喜爱AI。
我有种感觉，$AMD 的 Lisa 很喜欢 AI。 很高兴在活动中见到你们中的一些人！ https://t.co/AWdGS349xF
英文原文
I have this feeling that Lisa from $AMD likes AI. It’s cool getting to meet some of you at the event! https://t.co/AWdGS349xF
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博主引用他人观点指出谷歌股价下跌。
@4intheflames $GOOGL 股价大幅下跌 0.079%。https://t.co/lN3g2KcJZy
英文原文
@4intheflames $GOOGL stock down a solid -.079%. https://t.co/lN3g2KcJZy