$DUOL
相关推文
按时间倒序
-
拿 ARKK 和语言教育类 AI 公司举例，认为投资瓶颈型光子供应链可能更好。
@zzenrocker 不如你去买 Cathie Wood 的 $ARKK ETF，里面有像 $DUOL 这种“下一代 AI 公司”，也就是被 AI 驱动的语言教育受益股。 也许这比去押注真正支撑超大规模云 AI 基础设施的关键 CPO 光子瓶颈更好。
英文原文
@zzenrocker Idk, you can buy Cathie Wood’s $ARKK ETF, for “next generation AI companies” like $DUOL, the "super stock" set to benefit from AI-driven language education. Might be better than critical CPO photonics bottlenecks powering hyperscaler AI infrastructure.
-
拆解 PayPay IPO 的基本面与估值
PayPay（$PAYP）是最新上市的公司。 如果你在想，要不要冲一下这家日本的“$PYPL / WeChat”公司，市值 118 亿美元？ 那我们来看看。 如果你去过日本，你就会知道 PayPay 到处都是。 它是日本版超级 App，涵盖支付、投资和银行业务。 下面拆一下： 2025 财年指标： 收入：2991 亿日元（约 19 亿美元） 增速：约 26.3% 净利润（GAAP）：392 亿日元（约 2.48 亿美元） 市盈率：约 44 倍 股权薪酬：几乎为 0，不像美国的 $SNAP 和 $DUOL。 看资产负债表： 合并会计让 $PAYP 的账目非常难读。 4.85 万亿日元（约 323 亿美元）的负债或客户存款被混在资产里。 但上市前净负债大约是 -4.8 亿美元，上市募资后约 4.96 亿美元。 所以资产负债表大致是净现金略偏正，但整体中性。 另外提醒一下：软银是大股东，锁定期到 2026 年 9 月才到期。 按 118 亿美元估值，它大约是 5.8 倍 PS，对一家以 26% 增速、利润率还在扩张、且几乎没有 SBC 的日本超级 App 来说，这算是正常估值，不算特别便宜，也不算离谱。 TL;DR：总体上看，$PAYP 按 118 亿美元估值并不差。 后面可能会有 IPO 热度，再叠加低流通盘效应；但如果股价再涨很多，我不会追。 也许它会像 $HOOD 一样，靠 TAM 扩张慢慢抬估值。 不过几个月后软银那类类似 ATM 的压制也会出现。 但眼下还有更便宜的错价机会，比如 $RDDT。
英文原文
PayPay ( $PAYP ) is the newest IPO. If you're wondering if you should fomo in the $PYPL / WeChat of Japan at an $11.8B MC? Let's find out. If you've ever been to Japan: PayPay is everywhere. It's the Japanese SuperApp for payments, investing, and banking. Here's a breakdown: FY 2025 metrics: Revenue: ¥299.1 billion (~$1.9 billion) Growth Rate: ~26.3% Net Income (GAAP): ¥39.2 billion (~$248 million) P/E: ~44x Stock Base Compensation: Virtually 0, unlike $SNAP and $DUOL in the US. If we look at balance sheet: Consolidated accounting makes things a nightmare when you see $PAYP ¥4.85 Trillion (~$32.3 Billion) in liabilities or customer deposits mixed into assets. But pre-IPO net debt is approximately -$480M, and post-IPO proceeds of ~$496M. So balance sheet looks roughly net cash slightly positive but neutral. Also PSA: Softbank is the majority owner, lockup expires September 2026. At $11B, it's roughly ~5.8x P/S and very profitable for a Japanese superapp growing at 26% with expanding margins and zero SBC. By US standards, this is normally valued, not exactly a screaming buy. TLDR: In general, $PAYP is not a terrible long at $11.8B. Might get some IPO hype + mixed with low float dynamics, but would not chase if it ends up a lot higher. Maybe there's some TAM expansion like $HOOD that prices it up over time. But Softbank ATM-like overhang in a few months. But there's a lot better mispriced choices out there like $RDDT right now.
-
不该把 Reddit 和高稀释公司混为一谈
@MarkosAAIG 不能把 $RDDT 这种全球最受欢迎的平台之一，和那些 SBC 永无止境的 $SNAP 或 $DUOL 相提并论。 Reddit 去年的 GAAP 净利润是 5.3 亿美元（已经包含 SBC），而 Snapchat 的稀释性要强得多。
英文原文
@MarkosAAIG Would not compare one of the most popular platforms in the world $RDDT to the likes of endless SBC $SNAP or $DUOL. GAAP net income for Reddit last year was $530 million (including SBC), while Snapchat is heavily dilutive.
-
吐槽美股与亚股表现两极分化，提醒可配置两地资产。
不会只有我一个人这么觉得吧？ 我的时间线基本上是这样的： 亚洲投资者和分析师们欢呼他们的公司，如Nittobo或Seikoh Giken，每天上涨5-10%。 然后每个美国投资者都在发布$CRWV、$EOSE和$DUOL每天暴跌5-10%的亏损截图。 完全两极分化…… 你们都知道可以同时持有美国股票和亚洲股票，对吧？
英文原文
It can’t just be me right? My timeline is basically: Asian investors and analysts cheering on their companies like Nittobo or Seikoh Giken going up 5-10% a day. Then every US investors posting loss screenshots from $CRWV, $EOSE, and $DUOL crashing 5-10% a day. Completely binary… You all know that you can have both US equities and Asian equities right?
-
分析多个软件股认为AI无法真正颠覆网络效应驱动的平台，存在投资机会。
"AI正在颠覆软件，但实际上并非如此"这个投资组合。以下是我个人偏好的清单：$RDDT（149美元，年初至今-37.47%）：10/10$NFLX（84.61美元，6个月-30.85%）：9/10$NET（169.5美元，年初至今-13.55%）：10/10$SPOT（488美元，年初至今-15.2%）：9/10$SNAP（5.13美元，年初至今-38.1%）：10/10$DUOL（85.3美元，年初至今-60.92%）：6/10$PINS（17.5美元，年初至今-34%）：8/10$U（18.83美元，年初至今-59.3%）：8/10$FIG（28.93美元，年初至今-23.65%）：7/10Reddit - 10/10：你可以用Opus一天内vibe code一个Reddit，但主要问题是"网络效应"是你无法复制的。你可以问ChatGPT或Gemini一个问题，但主要用途是英雄联盟赛后讨论或人类话语——这些才是人们使用Reddit的原因。Netflix - 9/10：你上Netflix看《鱿鱼游戏》和其他内容。AI确实会帮助生成新的病毒式电影或电视节目，但你仍然会用Netflix或YouTube来看。人们仍然会观看授权动漫如《孤注一掷》或最新的《弥留之国的爱丽丝》剧集，而不是AI生成的内容。Cloudflare 10/10：我不认为AI能颠覆Cloudflare。Spotify - 9/10：最大的颠覆是Apple Music不收取服务费（这可能不会发生）。虽然有AI生成音乐，但就像YouTube一样，你用Spotify来听它。你可以尝试vibe code Spotify，但很大一部分是版权。AI生成的音乐不会取代Martin Garrix的EDM配乐（其中很大一部分是知道这首歌→去音乐节现场）或Taylor Swift的《Love Story》类型歌曲（你也会去现场看演唱会）。Snapchat - 10/10：同样是网络效应——它之所以有效只是因为每个人都同意使用它。它的问题是变现和过多的股票薪酬，不是AI颠覆。Duolingo - 6/10：我长期以来一直嘲笑Duolingo，但在跌到86美元后估值再次合理。是的，你可以通过Gemini学习语言，我自己也是这么做的。但大多数人仍然会把Duolingo作为一种激励工具。还有品牌认知度+便利性，这是最大的因素。人们可以在应用商店vibe code自己的Duolingo，但这不意味着人们会使用它或自己出去编码。Pinterest - 8/10：这是人类相关的品味。人们担心代理商务和生成式AI（Midjourney、DALL-E）会颠覆这种搜索，但人们其实不太用Pinterest做这种搜索。Unity - 8/10：每个人都用Unity做4D AI和World Models。人们担心生成式游戏相关的事情，但它仍然被广泛使用。他们的主要问题是AI使用的变现，不是颠覆。Figma - 7/10：AI现在主要用于将你的Figma文件移植到html/css/js。并不完全是颠覆对软件的需求。也许只是我，但设计和创意有某种人类元素是AI还无法模仿的——用于线框图（它擅长复制和做相对新的东西）。我高度怀疑AI能否一键生成Tempo或$XYZ网站。对于$V和Mastercard等其他公司，我确实相信手续费和百分比费用可能会终结，因为AI通过$CRCL稳定币处理直接支付路由。对于$CHGG等其他公司，它们确实已经被颠覆出局了。对于$RDDT和$NFLX等其他公司，每个人仍然会去那里讨论或看《鱿鱼游戏》，AI没有实质性颠覆效应。由于恐惧已经笼罩软件市场，抄底将很难，但许多公司，如Reddit，提供了绝佳机会。
英文原文
The "AI is Disrupting Software but Not Really" Bucket. Here's my personal list of favorites: $RDDT ($149, -37.47% YTD): 10/10 $NFLX ($84.61, -30.85% 6M): 9/10 $NET ($169.5, -13.55% YTD): 10/10 $SPOT ($488, -15.2% YTD): 9/10 $SNAP ($5.13, -38.1% YTD): 10/10 $DUOL ($85.3, -60.92% YTD): 6/10 $PINS ($17.5, -34% YTD): 8/10 $U ($18.83, -59.3% YTD): 8/10 $FIG ($28.93, -23.65% YTD): 7/10 Reddit - 10/10: You can vibe code Reddit in a day with Opus. But the main thing is "Network Effect" that you can't replicate. You can ask ChatGPT or Gemini a question, but main thing is the type league of legends post-match discussions or human discourse that people use reddit for. Netflix - 9/10: You go to Netflix for squid games and others. I'm sure AI will help with generation of new viral movies or TV shows, but you will still use Netflix or Youtube to watch it. People are still going to watch licensed Anime like Solo Leveling or the newest Alice in Borderlands show over AI generated contnet. Cloudflare 10/10: I don't see how AI would disrupt Cloudflare. Spotify - 9/10: Biggest disruption is Apple Music just not charging for services (which likely won't happen). There's AI generating music but like Youtube, you use Spotify to listen to it. You can try and vibe code Spotify sure, but a large part of it is licenses. AI generated music will not go out and replace Martin Garrix EDM soundtracks (where a large part of it is knowing the song -> going to music festivals in person) or Taylor Swift Love Story type songs (where you also go in person to see concerts). Snapchat - 10/10: Same with network effect only reason it works is because everyone agrees to use it. Their issue is with monetization and excessive stock based compensation, not AI disruption. Duolingo - 6/10: I made fun of Duolingo for the longest time, but it's decent valuation again after the selloff to $86. Yes you can learn languages through Gemini, which I do myself. But most people are still going use Duolingo as more of a motivational tool. There's name recognition too + convenience, which is the biggest factor. People can vibe code their own Duolingo but that doesn't mean people will use it on the app store or go out and code it themselves. Pinterest - 8/10 - It's human related taste. People are fearing agentic commerce and generative AI (Midjourney, DALL-E) will disrupt this type of search, which people don't really use Pinterest for. Unity - 8/10: Everyone uses Unity for 4D AI and World Models. People fear stuff regarding generative gaming, but it's still widely used. Their main issue is monetization from AI usage, not disruption. Figma - 7/10: AI is right now is mainly for porting your figma files over to html/css/js. Not exactly for disrupting the need for the software. Maybe it's just me but there's a certain human element to design and creativity that AI can't emulate yet for wireframing (it's good at copying and doing something relatively new). I highly doubt AI can one-shot Tempo or $XYZ websites. For others like $V and Mastercard, I do genuinely believe interchange and % based fees maybe end as AI handles direct payment routing through $CRCL stablecoins. And for others like $CHGG, they have legitimately been disrupted out of existence already. For the rest like $RDDT and $NFLX, everyone will still go there for discussions or to watch Squid Games, and AI has no material disruptive effect. Going to be hard to time the bottom as fear has overtaken the market with software, but many, such as Reddit present a great opportunity.
-
Robinhood用户Q4亏246亿，警示散户在熊市中难以获利。
这组数据令人震惊……Robinhood 用户在 2025 年第四季度集体亏损： - 246 亿美元。 而 X 上 Robinhood 投资组合主要由以下股票组成： $HIMS、$DUOL 和 $BMNR。 随着这些股票下跌 50-70%+，2026 年第一季度可能会更糟。 每个人都以为自己是沃伦·巴菲特，能在极端牛市中从 Duolingo、$CRWV 和 $ASST 获利。 但当市场转差时： 我们将开始看到真正的交易者和投资者，他们能够在任何市场条件下获利。
英文原文
This data is alarming... Robinhood users lost a collective: - $24.6 Billion USD in Q4 2025. With Robinhood portfolios on X consisting of : $HIMS, $DUOL, and $BMNR. Q1 2026 is likely to be even worse, as these names drop 50-70%+. Everyone thinks they're Warren Buffet, making profit from Duolingo, $CRWV, and $ASST in an extreme bull market. But as markets turn sour: We'll start to see the real traders and investors, who are able to profit in any market condition.
-
作者表示对全仓DUOL和HIMS投资者的尊重超过伯瑞。
@soulbiri1 我现在对那位全仓 $DUOL / $HIMS 的哥们儿的尊重程度，甚至超过了对伯瑞(Burry)的尊重。 https://t.co/jjKomoBuAs
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I have more respect for the full port $DUOL / $HIMS guy than Burry now https://t.co/jjKomoBuAs
-
分析软件股受AI影响差异，首选RDDT并寻找新机会。
仍在研究软件板块以寻找机会。$SPOT 和 $NFLX 是那些未被 AI 颠覆的公司，因为其大部分业务为授权模式。Netflix 的下跌原因更多元，涉及收购因素。不过这两只股票此前估值已很高。 $DUOL 看起来更合理。我对 $ADBE 了解不够。 现在是厘清哪些业务会被颠覆，哪些虽无实质影响（但被板块性抛售）的好时机。 $RDDT 是我首选标的，我仍在寻找其他机会。
英文原文
Still doing research into software segment for opportunities. $SPOT, $NFLX is something that's not disrupted by AI because majority of it is licensing. Netflix drop is more multifaceted bc of acquisition.Those two were richly valued though. $DUOL make more sense. Dont know enough about $ADBE. It's a good time to figure out what gets disrupted, and what has no material effect (but gets sold off in the bucket). $RDDT was my top pick, I'm still looking for others.
-
作者澄清持仓结构相似但权重不同，并对比自身交易风格与长期持有者。
如果你读了那篇帖子，我提到我的个人投资组合看起来不同且权重不同。但从结构上看，它与上述内容相似。 另外，我是一名日内/波段交易者，我的持仓变动很大。如果你想要稳定性，还有其他人全仓持有 $DUOL、$HIMS 和 $AMD 且从不调整。
英文原文
If you read the post, I mentioned my personal portfolio looks different and has different weightings. But looks structurally it’s similar to above. Also I’m a day/swing trader, my positions change a lot. If you want consistency there’s others that are all in $DUOL, $HIMS, $AMD and never change.
-
建议放弃逆向股，重仓三星和SK海力士等AI存储巨头。
老实说，光看这份预估净利润图表…… 让人不禁疑惑，为什么人们还要试图全仓押注像 $PYPL、$FIG 或 $DUOL 这样的逆向反转交易？ 我觉得，坐在像三星或 SK 海力士这样盈利且超增长的公司里“躺平”，才是最容易做的事？ 它们相比“七巨头(Mag7)”规模相对较小，但预计将在 2027 年成为全球最盈利的公司。 有时候，最好的做法就是参与这些显而易见的交易，开启“简单模式”的生活。
英文原文
Honestly just looking at the quoted net income chart… Makes you wonder why people try and full port it into contrarian turnaround plays like $PYPL, $FIG, or $DUOL I feel like sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix is just the easiest thing to do? They’re relatively small compared to Mag7, but projected to become the most profitable companies in the world in 2027. Sometimes the best thing to do is just join in on the no-brainer trades and live life on easy mode.
-
对比负责任与发布虚假内幕信息的网红博主
谢谢，我对那位因基于公开信息构建其万亿美元级语言AI鸟类（$DUOL）投资逻辑并在股价下跌时承担责任、导致组合亏损60%的$DUOL/$HIMS/$PLTR网红博主没有意见。相比之下，还有其他人发布关于“内幕消息”显示需求过大的实质性虚假/不可验证声明，然后在股价崩盘后删除帖子。
英文原文
Thanks I have no issue with that $DUOL / $HIMS / $PLTR influencer who lost 60% of his portfolio because at least he’s basing his $1T+ language AI bird thesis off pubic information and taking accountability when the stock dropped. Then there’s others who just post materially false / unverifiable statements about too much demand from “insider info” then deletes their posts after the stock crashes
-
调侃 FT 采访和 DUOL 回复
@RJCcapital @FT @retail_mourinho @zephyr_z9 @jiahanjimliu @DeepValueBagger @NighthawkTradez 当 FT 做我的个人采访时，我唯一的回复就是 $DUOL。 那时候他们就知道必须把 RJC 也加进名单里了。
英文原文
@RJCcapital @FT @retail_mourinho @zephyr_z9 @jiahanjimliu @DeepValueBagger @NighthawkTradez When FT did my individual interview my only reply was $DUOL. That’s when they knew they had to include RJC on the list too.
-
博主展示其DUOL、PLTR、HIMS持仓，戏称其市值将达万亿并询问是否卖课。
@RJCcapital 你怎么看我的投资组合 @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital 它们都将成为10万亿美元市值的公司。 1. $DUOL - 50万亿美元的语言AI基础设施。 2. $PLTR - 从这里起涨100倍 - 50万亿美元的利息利润。 3. $HIMS - 500万亿美元的伟哥（🐔 pills）。世界需要它。 值得卖课吗？
英文原文
@RJCcapital What do you think of my port @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital they all will be 10T companies 1. $DUOL - 50T AI infrastructure for language 2. $PLTR - 100x from here - 50T off interest profit. 3. $HIMS- 500T off 🐔 pills. The world needs it. Is it worth selling a course too?
-
批评靠卖课而非市场交易获利，并质疑对PLTR和DUOL的看多观点。
@alc2022 看着你对 $PLTR 和 $DUOL 的坚定信念挺有意思，我觉得这错得离谱，但我们可以求同存异。不过，试图通过粉丝获利并不是正道。要从市场中赚钱，而不是靠卖课程。
英文原文
@alc2022 I have a fun time seeing your conviction on $PLTR and $DUOL and think they're hilariously wrong but we can agree to disagree. But trying to profit off followers is not the way to go. Make money off the markets, not by selling courses.
-
建议避开高位股，因市场非理性少做空，吐槽平台付费墙。
@MaximChistov 我之前发帖建议避开处于历史高位的 $CRCL 和 $DUOL，但由于市场像 $OKLO 和 $QBTS 一样非理性，我很少做空。 关于另一个问题，我打算以后离开 X 平台，因为我觉得自己现在正在帮助他人。 那些对愚蠢且错误的图表设置付费墙的用户让我留了下来。
英文原文
@MaximChistov I posted to stay away from $CRCL and $DUOL at ath but I don’t short much since markets are irrational like $OKLO | $QBTS For the other q, I’ll leave X down the road since I feel like I’m helping others right now. The users paywalling stupid + wrong charting is keeping me here
-
建议9月降低风险偏好，转向盈利股或超跌股，规避高贝塔股。
一个小建议：9月前后降低风险偏好。像$UNH、$NVO、$GOOGL、$UPWK、$KSPI...这样的盈利股，或者年内下跌的$MRVL、$SG、$SNAP...可能会表现不错。如果你满仓高贝塔(high beta)股如$PLTR、$DUOL、$HOOD、$COIN、$CRCL、$NVDA、$MSTR、$TSLA...祝你好运。
英文原文
Just a tip: Lower risk appetite around September. Profitable stocks like $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, $UPWK, $KSPI... or stocks down YTD - $MRVL, $SG, $SNAP might do well. If you're full port calls on high beta like $PLTR, $DUOL, $HOOD, $COIN, $CRCL, $NVDA, $MSTR, $TSLA... Good luck.
-
推荐SG等7只股票的波段机会，警示避开CRCL等3只股票的下跌。
目前有一些不错的超跌反弹/波段交易机会： 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 远离这些下跌（不要抄底）： 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5
英文原文
Some decent recovery/swing trades right now 1. $SG - $9.39 2. $SNAP - $7.21 3. $UNH - $306.8 4. $ETOR - $46.8 5. $NVO - $57.00 6. $HIMS - $44.73 7. $CRWV - $94.7 Stay away from these dips 1. $CRCL - $136.2 2. $PLTR - $159.6 3. $DUOL - $334.5