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伊朗冲突利好Reddit，市场定价错误
仅持股。我查看了 Elon 关于 X 平台连续创纪录参与度的帖子： -> 委内瑞拉：创纪录参与度 -> 伊朗：参与度再创新高。 同时我也关注了关于 $PINS / $META 看空论点的评论，即广告商因时间线问题而减少支出。 但 $RDDT 或许是极少数能因战争期间用户参与度/流量激增而获得隔离效应+受益的社交媒体公司之一。 因此我认为伊朗冲突对 Reddit 整体利好，而市场定价错误。
英文原文
Shares only. I was looking Elon's posts about X having record engagement back to back: -> Venezuela: Record engagement -> Iran: Even higher record engagement. And was looking at other comments around $PINS / $META bear case indicators of advertisers pulling spend due to timelines. But $RDDT is perhaps the one of the only few social media companies that has isolation + benefits from a massive spike of user engagement/traffic during war. Hence why I think the conflict in Iran is net bullish for Reddit and markets are pricing it wrong.
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战时流量激增且广告隔离，$RDDT 下季业绩有望大幅超预期。
Reddit ($RDDT) 实际上看起来： 在战时异常看涨。 我的论点是，他们很可能会大幅超出下一个季度的盈利预期。 以下是市场忽略的内容： 1. 战时极端的用户参与度。 重大实时事件期间的两大西方平台：X 和 $RDDT。 像 $PINS 这样的公司可能不会从战争带来的参与度增加中受益，$META 可能仅受益于一小部分增长。 但所有人都涌向 Reddit 和 X。 -> 在全球危机期间，数百万焦急、高意图的搜索查询将人们从 Google 引向 Reddit。 -> 以及对正在发生的事件的直接讨论流量，导致更长的参与度 + 广告展示 + 总体流量。 Elon Musk / X 确认在伊朗冲突初期 X 平台的使用量创纪录。 并确认在委内瑞拉冲突期间参与度创纪录。 Reddit 的情况可能也是如此。 许多数据本月未公开（例如 Similarweb 估算），但我有高度信心，Reddit 在此期间也实现了创纪录的参与度。 委内瑞拉冲突可能导致了短期的活动爆发，但伊朗冲突持续时间较长，是十年来最大的冲突之一。 2. 广告主的避险情绪 通常的观点是 $META 和 X 拥有峰值参与度，但广告主在战时会撤下广告。 特别是因为 $META 和 X 可能在同一个信息流中展示伊朗冲突 + 金融等不同事件的巨大时间线： 然而： $RDDT 是最独特的社交媒体平台之一，因为其 subreddit 是隔离的。 /r/leagueoflegends 或 /r/wallstreetbets 的内容与 /r/iran 和 /r/worldnews 是隔离的。 3. Reddit 保守估计盈利 2026 年 Q1 营收指引 5.95-6.05 亿美元于 2 月初发布，此时尚未受到 2 月下旬伊朗冲突引发的巨大流量异常和可能的广告预算重新分配的影响。 我预期在发布财报时，营收将大幅超出预期。 _ Reddit ($RDDT) 是一个非对称的多头头寸，实际上在战时极度看涨，这与社交媒体总体看跌的普遍假设相反。 目前尚无公开的盈利历史来证明这一点（因为 Reddit 在乌克兰冲突期间尚未上市）。 但我的 alpha/论点是前所未有的： 我们将看到 Reddit 成为战时少数看涨的社交媒体平台之一。 我们将通过其财报来验证这一点是否属实。
英文原文
Reddit ( $RDDT ) in fact looks: Exceptionally Bullish during War. My thesis is that they will likely blow away next quarter earnings expectations. Here's what the market missed: 1. Extreme User Engagement during Wartime. The major two Western outlets during live events: X and $RDDT. Companies like $PINS likely do not benefit from increased engagement from War and $META may benefit from a tiny uptick. But everyone flocks to Reddit and X. -> During a global crisis, millions of frantic, high-intent search queries lead people to Reddit from Google. -> As well as direct traffic from discussion on what's going on, leading to longer-engagement + ad views + traffic in general. Elon Musk / X confirmed record usage of the X platform during the initial conflict with Iran. And confirmed record engagement during the conlifct with Venezuela. This is likely the same with Reddit. A lot of this data is not public this month (eg. Similarweb estimates), but it's high confidence, both Reddit also achieved record engagement during this time. The Venezuela conflict may have led to a short burst in activity, but the Iran conflict is extended and one of the largest ones of the decade. 2. Flight to Safety from Advertisers The typical view is $META and X have peak engagement, but advertisers pull ads during war. Especially as $META and X might show massive timelines of different events from Iran conflict + Finance in one feed: However: $RDDT is one of the most unique social media platforms as they're isolated with subreddits. Things from /r/leagueoflegends or /r/wallstreetbets are isolated from /r/iran and /r/worldnews. 3. Reddit Sandbagging earnings Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $595–$605 million was issued in early February, before the massive traffic anomaly and likely advertiser budget reallocation triggered by the late-February Iran conflict. My expectation is a larger then normal revenue beat when it comes time to announce earnings. _ Reddit ( $RDDT ) is an asymmetric long that's actually extremely bullish during wartime, against common assumption that social media is net bearish. There's been no public earnings history to show this yet (since Reddit was not public during Ukraine conflict). But my alpha/thesis is for the first time ever: We'll see Reddit show up as one of the only bullish social media platforms during war. We'll find out of this is true or not during their earnings.
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分析多个软件股认为AI无法真正颠覆网络效应驱动的平台，存在投资机会。
"AI正在颠覆软件，但实际上并非如此"这个投资组合。以下是我个人偏好的清单：$RDDT（149美元，年初至今-37.47%）：10/10$NFLX（84.61美元，6个月-30.85%）：9/10$NET（169.5美元，年初至今-13.55%）：10/10$SPOT（488美元，年初至今-15.2%）：9/10$SNAP（5.13美元，年初至今-38.1%）：10/10$DUOL（85.3美元，年初至今-60.92%）：6/10$PINS（17.5美元，年初至今-34%）：8/10$U（18.83美元，年初至今-59.3%）：8/10$FIG（28.93美元，年初至今-23.65%）：7/10Reddit - 10/10：你可以用Opus一天内vibe code一个Reddit，但主要问题是"网络效应"是你无法复制的。你可以问ChatGPT或Gemini一个问题，但主要用途是英雄联盟赛后讨论或人类话语——这些才是人们使用Reddit的原因。Netflix - 9/10：你上Netflix看《鱿鱼游戏》和其他内容。AI确实会帮助生成新的病毒式电影或电视节目，但你仍然会用Netflix或YouTube来看。人们仍然会观看授权动漫如《孤注一掷》或最新的《弥留之国的爱丽丝》剧集，而不是AI生成的内容。Cloudflare 10/10：我不认为AI能颠覆Cloudflare。Spotify - 9/10：最大的颠覆是Apple Music不收取服务费（这可能不会发生）。虽然有AI生成音乐，但就像YouTube一样，你用Spotify来听它。你可以尝试vibe code Spotify，但很大一部分是版权。AI生成的音乐不会取代Martin Garrix的EDM配乐（其中很大一部分是知道这首歌→去音乐节现场）或Taylor Swift的《Love Story》类型歌曲（你也会去现场看演唱会）。Snapchat - 10/10：同样是网络效应——它之所以有效只是因为每个人都同意使用它。它的问题是变现和过多的股票薪酬，不是AI颠覆。Duolingo - 6/10：我长期以来一直嘲笑Duolingo，但在跌到86美元后估值再次合理。是的，你可以通过Gemini学习语言，我自己也是这么做的。但大多数人仍然会把Duolingo作为一种激励工具。还有品牌认知度+便利性，这是最大的因素。人们可以在应用商店vibe code自己的Duolingo，但这不意味着人们会使用它或自己出去编码。Pinterest - 8/10：这是人类相关的品味。人们担心代理商务和生成式AI（Midjourney、DALL-E）会颠覆这种搜索，但人们其实不太用Pinterest做这种搜索。Unity - 8/10：每个人都用Unity做4D AI和World Models。人们担心生成式游戏相关的事情，但它仍然被广泛使用。他们的主要问题是AI使用的变现，不是颠覆。Figma - 7/10：AI现在主要用于将你的Figma文件移植到html/css/js。并不完全是颠覆对软件的需求。也许只是我，但设计和创意有某种人类元素是AI还无法模仿的——用于线框图（它擅长复制和做相对新的东西）。我高度怀疑AI能否一键生成Tempo或$XYZ网站。对于$V和Mastercard等其他公司，我确实相信手续费和百分比费用可能会终结，因为AI通过$CRCL稳定币处理直接支付路由。对于$CHGG等其他公司，它们确实已经被颠覆出局了。对于$RDDT和$NFLX等其他公司，每个人仍然会去那里讨论或看《鱿鱼游戏》，AI没有实质性颠覆效应。由于恐惧已经笼罩软件市场，抄底将很难，但许多公司，如Reddit，提供了绝佳机会。
英文原文
The "AI is Disrupting Software but Not Really" Bucket. Here's my personal list of favorites: $RDDT ($149, -37.47% YTD): 10/10 $NFLX ($84.61, -30.85% 6M): 9/10 $NET ($169.5, -13.55% YTD): 10/10 $SPOT ($488, -15.2% YTD): 9/10 $SNAP ($5.13, -38.1% YTD): 10/10 $DUOL ($85.3, -60.92% YTD): 6/10 $PINS ($17.5, -34% YTD): 8/10 $U ($18.83, -59.3% YTD): 8/10 $FIG ($28.93, -23.65% YTD): 7/10 Reddit - 10/10: You can vibe code Reddit in a day with Opus. But the main thing is "Network Effect" that you can't replicate. You can ask ChatGPT or Gemini a question, but main thing is the type league of legends post-match discussions or human discourse that people use reddit for. Netflix - 9/10: You go to Netflix for squid games and others. I'm sure AI will help with generation of new viral movies or TV shows, but you will still use Netflix or Youtube to watch it. People are still going to watch licensed Anime like Solo Leveling or the newest Alice in Borderlands show over AI generated contnet. Cloudflare 10/10: I don't see how AI would disrupt Cloudflare. Spotify - 9/10: Biggest disruption is Apple Music just not charging for services (which likely won't happen). There's AI generating music but like Youtube, you use Spotify to listen to it. You can try and vibe code Spotify sure, but a large part of it is licenses. AI generated music will not go out and replace Martin Garrix EDM soundtracks (where a large part of it is knowing the song -> going to music festivals in person) or Taylor Swift Love Story type songs (where you also go in person to see concerts). Snapchat - 10/10: Same with network effect only reason it works is because everyone agrees to use it. Their issue is with monetization and excessive stock based compensation, not AI disruption. Duolingo - 6/10: I made fun of Duolingo for the longest time, but it's decent valuation again after the selloff to $86. Yes you can learn languages through Gemini, which I do myself. But most people are still going use Duolingo as more of a motivational tool. There's name recognition too + convenience, which is the biggest factor. People can vibe code their own Duolingo but that doesn't mean people will use it on the app store or go out and code it themselves. Pinterest - 8/10 - It's human related taste. People are fearing agentic commerce and generative AI (Midjourney, DALL-E) will disrupt this type of search, which people don't really use Pinterest for. Unity - 8/10: Everyone uses Unity for 4D AI and World Models. People fear stuff regarding generative gaming, but it's still widely used. Their main issue is monetization from AI usage, not disruption. Figma - 7/10: AI is right now is mainly for porting your figma files over to html/css/js. Not exactly for disrupting the need for the software. Maybe it's just me but there's a certain human element to design and creativity that AI can't emulate yet for wireframing (it's good at copying and doing something relatively new). I highly doubt AI can one-shot Tempo or $XYZ websites. For others like $V and Mastercard, I do genuinely believe interchange and % based fees maybe end as AI handles direct payment routing through $CRCL stablecoins. And for others like $CHGG, they have legitimately been disrupted out of existence already. For the rest like $RDDT and $NFLX, everyone will still go there for discussions or to watch Squid Games, and AI has no material disruptive effect. Going to be hard to time the bottom as fear has overtaken the market with software, but many, such as Reddit present a great opportunity.
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对比低估值高增长存储股与高估值消费股，感叹市场逻辑混乱。
有两家公司根本不在乎市场崩盘。 $APP 下跌 19.7% $DNKG 下跌 19.4% $PINS 下跌至 19.1% $ASTS 下跌 15.21% $RDW 下跌至 13.1% $USAR 下跌 12.4% 白银下跌 11.6% $OSS 下跌 9.58% $RGTI 下跌 8.85% $RDDT 下跌 6.8% $RKLB 下跌 5.4% $APPL 下跌 5.09% 黄金下跌 3.4% SPY 指数下跌 1.54% SanDisk 上涨 7.21%。 另一个最大的赢家？沃尔玛，今日上涨 3.78%。 你有一家远期 2027 年市盈率(p/e)约 7 倍的存储公司，其净利润同比增长三位数。 而一家浴巾转售商，增长仅与通胀持平，却坐拥 46 倍市盈率，表现优于市场。 市场正变得越来越没有道理。
英文原文
There are two companies that don’t care about market crashes. $APP down 19.7% $DNKG down 19.4% $PINS down to 19.1% $ASTS down 15.21% $RDW down to 13.1% $USAR down 12.4% Silver down 11.6% $OSS down 9.58% $RGTI down 8.85% $RDDT down 6.8% $RKLB down 5.4% $APPL down 5.09% Gold down 3.4% SPY Index down 1.54% Sandisk up 7.21%. The other biggest gainer? Walmart, up 3.78% today. You have a fwd 2027 p/e ~7 memory company growing net income at triple digits y/y. And a bath towel reseller growing in line with inflation sitting at 46 p/e, outperforming the market. Markets are starting to make less and less sense.
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分析$PINS高毛利与营收增长，评估研发支出合理性。
我喜欢人们分享他们的高确信度观点。$PINS 很有趣，我完全忘了它的存在。这绝对是一个不错的候选标的，过去6个月下跌了28%。我看好的一点是，他们在季度营收超过10亿美元的情况下，毛利率约为79.8%，且营收同比仍增长16%。仅从高层概览来看：研发(R&D)支出：3.71亿美元；销售与营销(S&M)支出：2.97亿美元；一般及行政(G&A)费用：1.1亿美元。可能还需要花更多时间进行建模，看看那占营收35%的研发支出是否属于浪费性的冗余。但除此之外，2.97亿美元的营销支出是合理的。
英文原文
I love it when people share their high conviction. $PINS is interesting, I completely forgot that existed. Definitely a good candidate, down -28% last 6 months. What I like is that they have ~79.8% gross margins off $1B+ quarterly revenue, and still have 16% Y/Y revenue growth. Just looking at a high-level overview: R&D: $371M Sales & marketing: $297M G&A: $110M Will probably need to spend some more time to do modelling and see if that 35% of revenue on R&D is wasteful bloat. But otherwise the $297M marketing makes sense.