$RDDT
观点汇总
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Serenity 对 RDDT 的核心论点基于其作为高粘性、高利润率（91%毛利率）社交媒体平台的长期价值，类比早期 Robinhood 或 Facebook。他认为 ChatGPT 引用争议是短期噪音，真实催化剂在于利用自由现金流进行收购（如 SNAP）及拓展 AI 数据变现。其观点随时间演变：9 月因估值过高建议卖出或三角套利；10 月视 190-200 美元为回调买点，强调机构税务收割效应；11 月在大盘恐慌中强烈买入，看重其网络效应及抗跌性；12 月维持“买入”评级，视其为低风险高增长标的。他看重 RDDT 在 AI 数据供应链中的独特瓶颈地位及盈利转化能力。明确表态包括：9 月 240 美元以上卖出，10 月 190 美元附近建仓，11 月强烈买入，12 月继续持有，8 个月目标价 275 美元。
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认为RDDT财报后跌幅被夸大，看好其变现策略及AI授权前景。
@amitisinvesting 同意对 $RDDT 的看法，我认为财报/预期带来的 -22.61% 反应似乎被夸大了。他们的变现策略似乎正在发挥奇效。鉴于前沿实验室总是需要更多数据，AI 授权(AI licensing)似乎也是不可避免的。这是最让人困惑的抛售之一。
英文原文
@amitisinvesting Agreed on $RDDT, the -22.61% reaction seems overblown to me off those earnings/projections. Their monetization strategy seem to be working wonders. AI licensing seems inevitable as well given your frontier labs always want more data. Was one of the more confusing selloffs.
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Reddit业绩超预期却暴跌，博主对这种非理性抛售表示惊讶。
@tax_evader666 美国日活跃用户(DAU)*，他们在财务指标上大超预期，并将远期指引上调至高于市场共识。但人们喜欢每次股价下跌时都编造一些叙事。$RDDT 暴跌 22.6% 让我非常惊讶。
英文原文
@tax_evader666 US DAU*, they beat heavily on financial metrics and raised forward guidance above street expectations. But people like to make up some narrative every time something drops. -22.6% selloff on $RDDT is very surprising to me.
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Reddit财报全面超预期，博主批评市场无视基本面而因DAU微跌抛售。
$RDDT 财报简评： 营收：8.049亿美元 vs 预期7.304亿美元。 每股收益(EPS)：1.25美元 vs 约0.95美元。 净利润：2.528亿美元 vs 1.965亿美元。 Q3指引： 营收：8.60-8.70亿美元 vs 8.291亿美元 调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(Adjusted EBITDA)：3.85-3.95亿美元 vs 3.69亿美元 财务数据全面超预期，但市场总喜欢编造新故事来解释股价下跌22.6%。 上季度：“AI将颠覆Reddit导致营收下滑！” 本季度：“看，日活跃用户(DAU)跌了0.6%！”（完全无视营收和盈利增长）
英文原文
$RDDT ER in a nutshell: Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected). EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95. Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M Q3 guidance: Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative. Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!" This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)
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博主认为半导体板块接近底部，Reddit散户爆仓是反向指标。
我猜测，从 $INTC 到 $LITE 的半导体板块已接近市场底部。一个很好的指标是，看看 $RDDT 上是否所有人都把投资组合亏到了 $0。
英文原文
My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX
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回顾 $RDDT 业绩爆发后经历漫长盘整，最终走势符合预期。
@TW_trades_ 之前因 $RDDT 的爆发式季度业绩而焦虑不已，随后却经历了漫长的震荡盘整(chopping)。但很高兴最终走势符合预期。
英文原文
@TW_trades_ Was losing my mind over $RDDT's blowout quarter, just to see chopping for the longest time. But glad it played out well.
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Reddit重回200美元，高毛利高增长，此前下跌令人费解。
过去几个月对 $RDDT 来说很糟糕。但很高兴它终于重回 200 美元上方。 Reddit 的表现是： - 营收 6.63 亿美元，毛利率 91.5% - 公认会计准则(GAAP)净利润 2.04 亿美元 - 在 69%+ 增长之后，未来同比(Y/Y)增长 45%+ - 净利润约占营收的 30.7% 看到一家盈利公司遭遇 https://t.co/I4kwI8BOCu 感觉很奇怪。
英文原文
Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200. Reddit was doing: - $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins - $204M GAAP net income - 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth. - Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue Felt very weird to see a profitable company get https://t.co/I4kwI8BOCu
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OpenAI独占Cerebras算力致非超大规模客户等待无限期
机器学习 $RDDT 子版块有一个相当有趣的轶事性投诉。 关于 $CBRS + OpenAI： - 需要 1-2K tokens/秒，所以尝试使用 Cerebras。 - 声称 OpenAI 预留了所有产能，导致非超大规模云厂商的等待名单无限长。 - 陈述 https://t.co/ZXPPg7v5Ch
英文原文
There was a pretty funny anecdotal complaint from the Machine Learning $RDDT subreddit. On $CBRS + OpenAI: - Needs 1-2K tokens/sec so tries to use Cerebras. - Claims OpenAI reserved all capacity, making waitlist infinite for everyone else not a hyperscaler. - Stated https://t.co/ZXPPg7v5Ch
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博主感叹AI投资组合跑输迷因股，询问是否有人建仓。
$WEN 的迷因股交易员们从日本到美国登上了全球媒体！ 这家汉堡快餐连锁店现在上涨了约 50%，相当令人印象深刻。 感觉有点糟糕，被边缘化，看着我的 AI 内存/光通信(CPO)投资组合表现不如 $RDDT 这只迷因股。 有人建仓了吗？ https://t.co/hM0RhWh21c
英文原文
The $WEN meme traders made it to Global Media from Japan to US! The burger fast food chain is now up ~50%, which is pretty impressive. Feels bad to be sidelined and see my AI memory/optical portfolio perform worse than a $RDDT memestock tho. Did anyone take positions? https://t.co/hM0RhWh21c
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Reddit 用户发起病毒运动推动温迪汉堡股价隔夜大涨 20%。
我觉得很有趣，$RDDT 上的投机客们（degens）正在发起一场病毒式运动来拯救温迪汉堡（Wendy's，$WEN）。这家美国快餐汉堡连锁店的股价一夜之间上涨了 20%。作为背景补充：温迪汉堡是一个流行的社区梗，人们调侃在垃圾桶后面工作。
英文原文
I find it interesting that the degens on $RDDT are starting a viral campaign to save Wendy’s ( $WEN ). The US fast food burger chain. And the stock price is now up 20% overnight. Just for background: Wendy’s is a popular community meme, where people work behind the dumpsters https://t.co/AGFxxnxZRo
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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博主回应X收入分成计划，表示无论是否付费都会继续分享。
我发这条推文是因为大家似乎对 X 的收入分成计划非常好奇。 真的没想到每两周能获得超过 1 亿次的浏览量！ 不过，即使这是免费的，且我只是和 $RDDT 的几个朋友分享想法，我也会继续做同样的事情。
英文原文
I’m just posting this since people seem really curious about X’s revenue sharing program. Genuinely didn’t expect to get seen 100M+ times every 2 weeks! Would keep doing the same thing tho, even if it were free and I just had a few friends from $RDDT to share ideas with.
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博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
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提醒方向正确也可能短期择时错误，应避免高杠杆短线。
你们这些在 $RDDT 上两天红盘后就亏99%的人是怎么做到的？ 只是持有 $AAOI 或 $MRVL 这类本来就高 beta 的个股，有那么难吗？ 你可以在方向上判断正确，但短期时点错了。 多一周或一个月，差别会非常大。
英文原文
How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
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称AAOI是当前最喜欢的美国多头并提到JBL/SIVE 1.6T机会。
回复 @DanyloAkymenko：$AAOI 是我目前最喜欢的美国多头。 我个人最近在它跌到150美元，甚至170美元时都会加仓摊高成本。 我认为一旦 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 一起量产，$JBL 应该会表现很好。今天也谈到了 $RDDT。 如果你认为 $MRVL 能到1万亿美元……
英文原文
@DanyloAkymenko $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T
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看好RDDT的收入增长、自由现金流和网络效应护城河。
$RDDT 快把我逼疯了。 > 业绩大幅超预期 > 因为太赚钱，持续产生自由现金流(FCF) > 收入同比增长69% > 通过网络效应，拥有抵御 AI vibe coding 的最大护城河 > 毛利率91.5% 结果几个月都横着不动。很高兴看到它开始获得更多关注。
英文原文
$RDDT was driving me insane. > massive earnings beat > just printing FCF since they’re too profitable > 69% Y/Y revenue growth. > biggest moat against AI vibe coding from network effect > 91.5% gross margin. Was just flat for months. Glad to see it getting more attention. https://t.co/umUxYdXkz7
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调侃散户买错SPCE而非SPCX，显示SpaceX IPO需求。
所有人都在 $RDDT 上赚到改变人生的收益。 结果全杠杆买了错误的 $SPCE（Virgin Galactic）代码。 而不是尚未上市的 $SPCX。 我想这只是说明，散户对 SpaceX IPO 的需求有多大。
英文原文
Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT. Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker. Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch. I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO. https://t.co/AzcpV5fZ3P
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从因AXTI在WSB被封到成为X订阅第一，像火影救赎线。
这条时间线：因为发 $AXTI 被 $RDDT WSB 封禁。 那只股票随后上涨数千个百分点。 然后我成为 X 上订阅人数第一的人，感觉有点像火影里成为火影的救赎弧线。 还差1.2万。
英文原文
This timeline of getting banned on $RDDT WSB for posting about $AXTI. That stock going up thousands of percent. Then becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X feels kinda like a Naruto redemption arc to become hokage. Only 12k more to go. https://t.co/J8DNEbYXpl
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吐槽RDDT社区缺乏技术素养，将AXTI误称为MU存储竞争对手。
？？？$RDDT 的智商字面上比 $IREN 投资者还低？ 我不是做了这么多 $AXTI 研究…… 只是为了让你们在它上面赚380%，然后把它叫成 $MU 存储竞争对手，再说它是骗局？ 缺乏技术素养正是我被那里封禁的原因。
英文原文
??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM
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持有RDDT，认为它是少数高盈利增长公司但市场尚未反映。
回复 @XtineFang：我确实有 $RDDT！它们是少数极其盈利的成长公司之一。 只是很遗憾，到目前为止市场价格还没有真正反映这一点。
英文原文
@XtineFang I do have $RDDT! They’re one of the few extremely profitable growth companies out there. Just sadly hasn’t really reflected in market price so far.
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认为RDDT财报后估值不合理，盈利高增长却被市场忽视。
市场上有些事情不太合理。 $RDDT 是财报后的完美例子。 它是目前最赚钱且高增长的名字之一…… 但如果它和软件有关，或者没有烧掉1万亿美元以上 AI 资本开支，市场就不关心？
英文原文
There's some things in the market that don't make much sense. $RDDT is the perfect example post-earnings. One of the most profitable names right now with high growth... But if it's related to software or not burning $1T+ in AI capex, markets don't care? https://t.co/uWJ55OuZMO
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感叹 X 和 Reddit 上有人靠半导体赚了大钱
是不是只有我觉得…… X 上或者 $RDDT 上的人，最近是不是都靠 $INTC、$MU 和 $AMD 赚了大钱？ https://t.co/CWEt5rcusn
英文原文
Is it just me… Or does it feel like everyone on X or $RDDT made millions off of $INTC, $MU, and $AMD recently? https://t.co/CWEt5rcusn
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AXTI 和 GOOGL 两个判断让自己在 X 上出名
@pepemoonboy 谢谢，我其实挺为这个感到骄傲。$AXTI 让我在 X 上出名。 我在 $GOOGL 150 美元时的判断，让我先在 $RDDT 上出了名，后来它又涨到了 400。 希望以后能有一篇关于青蛙的。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks, im proud of this one. $AXTI made me famous on X. My $GOOGL call at $150 made me famous on $RDDT before that just went up to $400. Hope to see one about a frog next
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仍然看好 RDDT 这类非 AI 名字
我仍然觉得 $RDDT 是少数几个非 AI 名字里非常有吸引力的一个。 单看它们增长有多快，以及财报后的真实盈利能力。 老实说我还是不明白它为什么跑输大盘…… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ
英文原文
I still think $RDDT is one of the few non-AI names that is extremely compelling. Just by how fast they’re growing + true profitability post-earnings. Honestly still not sure why they’re underperforming the market… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ
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认为 RDDT 在大盘软件社媒里最有吸引力
@Rumbourbon23 在更大市值的软件 / 社交媒体板块里，没有什么比 $RDDT 更有吸引力了。
英文原文
@Rumbourbon23 There's nothing more compelling in the larger cap software/social media bucket than $RDDT
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六周后终于被 RDDT 证明了自己
终于在六周后证明了我做多 $RDDT 是对的。 有意思的是……它在那次爆炸性财报和指引后，YTD 还是跌了 28%。 我个人还是觉得它很有吸引力。
英文原文
Finally vindicated on my $RDDT long 6 weeks later. Funny thing is… It’s still down 28% YTD after that absolute blowout of quarter earnings and projections. Personally think it heads back to $200+ over time (repricing doesn’t happen in a day) since it’s a growing money printer.
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SNDK 财报远超预期
$SNDK 的业绩实在太强了…… Q3 业绩： 营收：59.5 亿美元，对比约 47 亿美元预期（同比增长 252%，超预期 26%） EPS：23.41 美元，对比约 14.5 美元预期（超预期 62%） 毛利率：约 78.4%，对比 67.3%（比预期高 1,110 个基点） Q4 2024 指引： 营收：77.5 亿至 82.5 亿美元，对比约 65 亿美元预期（高出预期 23%） EPS：30 至 33 美元，对比约 23 美元预期（高出预期 37.0%） 存储公司（披露一下，我确实持有 Sandisk）比 $RDDT 这类靠流量数据来预判的公司更容易提前定价。 只靠 NAND 涨价之类的第三方数据……所以重估确实发生在前面，而不是财报当天。 不管怎样，这正式确认了存储公司正在起飞…… 存储厂商的业绩非常炸裂，而且今年大概率还会继续往上走。
英文原文
$SNDK earnings are just way too good... Q3 earnings: Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat) EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat) Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.) Q4 2024 projections: Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates) EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates) Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data). Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings. Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr... Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.
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RDDT 利润质量很强
它们同比增长 69%，毛利率 91.5%……GAAP 净利润接近营收的 31%。 很多软件公司会像 Snapchat 那样用 SBC 掩盖盈利能力。 但 $RDDT 的数据是高增长营收，而且很大一部分正在真正增加它们的现金余额。 下季度指引显示，增长速度仍然很快。
英文原文
They grew 69% Y/Y, 91.5% gross margins... with GAAP net income close to 31% of their revenue. Lot of software companies mask profitability with SBC like Snapchat. But $RDDT figures are high revenue growth with an immense portion of that adding to their cash balance sheets. Next quarter projections shows it's still growing at a rapid pace.
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预计 RDDT 将跑赢大盘
@ruth_capital 是的，我预计 $RDDT 在这次财报后会跑赢大盘。算法总是把 Reddit 和那些被 AI 颠覆的软件股混在一起。 但他们就是不断产生自由现金流，增长速度也很快，而且真实净利润通常会压过那些错误叙事。
英文原文
@ruth_capital Yeah I expect $RDDT to outperform broader market after these earnings. Algorithms bundle Reddit up with software names disrupted by AI. But they just keep printing FCF and growing at fast rates, and raw net income usually drowns out the false narratives.
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看利润数字，不要盯图线
@ConfusedNDazzed 我会忽略图上的线，只看 $RDDT 的纯数字。他们的盈利能力离谱，而且增长率还在疯狂上升。 估值最终会回到基本面上。
英文原文
@ConfusedNDazzed I would ignore the lines on the chart and just look at pure numbers for $RDDT. Their profitability is absurd and they’re still growing at insane rates. Valuations will catch up to fundamentals eventually.
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RDDT 财报大超预期
哇，$RDDT 刚刚交出了一份爆表的季度财报。 -> 营收 6.63 亿美元（同比增长 69%），高于约 6.08 亿美元共识。 -> EPS 1.01 美元，高于 0.6 美元共识（超预期 68.3%）。 -> 毛利率 91.5%。 -> Q1 GAAP 净利润 2.04 亿美元。这个可能是真正衡量盈利能力最重要的数字，因为它包含 SBC。 下季度他们指引营收 7.15 亿至 7.25 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 2.85 亿至 2.95 亿美元。 Reddit 看起来简直就是一台高增长印钞机。（披露：我确实持有 Reddit 仓位。） 短线期权流会带来很多图表波动。 但从基本面看，如果你抛开噪音去看 Reddit 的财报，Reddit 就是在疯狂印钞。
英文原文
Wow, $RDDT just posted an absolute blowout quarter. -> $663M revenue (69% growth Y/Y) vs. ~$608M consensus. -> $1.01 EPS reported vs. $0.6 consensus (68.3% beat). -> 91.5% gross margins. -> Q1 GAAP net income was $204M. This is probably the most important figure for true profitability since it includes SBC. Next quarter they projected, $715M to $725M revenue growth with $285 million to $295 million adjusted EBITDA. Reddit looks like a literal, high growth money printer. (Disclosure: I do have Reddit positions.) Expect a lot of chart volatility from short term option flows. But fundamentally, if you look at Reddit earnings without the noise, Reddit money printer go brrr.