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痛斥 SLNH 的高稀释
我很生气，因为有人在为了自己的私利，主动坑害散户投资者。 把人忽悠去买一只市值 2 亿美元的 $SLNH 股票，同时伴随 10 亿美元稀释和 5 亿美元的持续 ATM，这种行为简直令人作呕。 如果你在意股权增值，这种做法完全说不通。
英文原文
I get angry when people are actively trying to screw over retail investors for their own personal gain. Absolutely disgusting behavior leading people to buy a $200m MC stock in $SLNH with $1 BILLION DILUTION and a $500,000,000 ACTIVE ATM. Literally makes 0 sense if you care about equity appreciation.
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RDDT 财报大超预期
哇，$RDDT 刚刚交出了一份爆表的季度财报。 -> 营收 6.63 亿美元（同比增长 69%），高于约 6.08 亿美元共识。 -> EPS 1.01 美元，高于 0.6 美元共识（超预期 68.3%）。 -> 毛利率 91.5%。 -> Q1 GAAP 净利润 2.04 亿美元。这个可能是真正衡量盈利能力最重要的数字，因为它包含 SBC。 下季度他们指引营收 7.15 亿至 7.25 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 2.85 亿至 2.95 亿美元。 Reddit 看起来简直就是一台高增长印钞机。（披露：我确实持有 Reddit 仓位。） 短线期权流会带来很多图表波动。 但从基本面看，如果你抛开噪音去看 Reddit 的财报，Reddit 就是在疯狂印钞。
英文原文
Wow, $RDDT just posted an absolute blowout quarter. -> $663M revenue (69% growth Y/Y) vs. ~$608M consensus. -> $1.01 EPS reported vs. $0.6 consensus (68.3% beat). -> 91.5% gross margins. -> Q1 GAAP net income was $204M. This is probably the most important figure for true profitability since it includes SBC. Next quarter they projected, $715M to $725M revenue growth with $285 million to $295 million adjusted EBITDA. Reddit looks like a literal, high growth money printer. (Disclosure: I do have Reddit positions.) Expect a lot of chart volatility from short term option flows. But fundamentally, if you look at Reddit earnings without the noise, Reddit money printer go brrr.
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西方机构开始关注 SIVE
有个有意思的事实：我不认为任何大型美国机构之前持有过 $SIVE / $SIVEF，因为它原本主要是瑞典本土散户持有的股票。 另外，美国基金也有一些投资限制，阻止它们入场（例如纳斯达克上市 / 10 亿美元市值）。 但如今情况已经变了，原因包括欧洲媒体把本地持有人洗出来、Sivers 即将登陆纳斯达克，以及市值突破 10 亿美元以上。 而且 13 亿美元对超大规模云厂商和美国机构来说真的只是零钱。 我很有把握他们很多都会想要接触 CPO、硅光和激光领域，因为全世界能做这类东西的公司本来就很少，比如 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MTSI。 尤其是……一家具备 CHIPS Act 背景的激光供应商，可能会出现在 $AMD、$MRVL、$AAPL、Lightmatter、Ayar、AlChip、GUC、O-Net 以及其他像 Golden Dome 这样的供应链里。 这部分也有博弈论因素，是为了积累股份。 因为现在美西方散户已经持有了相当大一部分流通股（来自瑞典卖盘）。 而美国机构现在也想要敞口。
英文原文
Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.
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机构嘴上劝退，实际上在买
@ontrialperiod 我就喜欢这种情况：机构嘴上告诉散户别在 15 亿市值时买。 结果他们自己却一路买了 6.5% 的流通盘。
英文原文
@ontrialperiod I like how institutions tell retail not to buy at $1.5B MC. The they causally bought 6.5% of the float on the way up.
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1.4 亿市值对激光供应链太小
@TVAFR786 14 亿美元市值算小吗？ 尤其如果他们的激光器很可能服务于 $AMD CPO、$MRVL CPO、$JBL 1.6T LRO、$AAPL 硅光、Ayar（AlChip）、Lightmatter、O-Net 终端客户（亚洲超大规模云厂商）以及其他项目。
英文原文
@TVAFR786 $1.4B MC is tiny? Especially if their lasers likely power $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T LRO, $AAPL Silicon Photonics, Ayar (AlChip), Lightmatter, O-Net End users (Asian Hyperscalers), and others.
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CPO 检测市场的天花板很高
CPO 是下一代光子架构的圣杯。 这位 CEO 的说法是要“拿下 90% 的 CPO 检测市场”（其实就是接近 100%，但他们不能这么说，不然会涉及反垄断）。 如果能维持这个地位，从 14 亿美元市值涨到 50 亿至 100 亿美元，并不离谱。
英文原文
CPO is the holy grail of next-gen photonics architectures. The CEO's claim was to "seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" (basically 100% but they can't say that otherwise antitrust). $5-10B+ MC isn't far fetched from $1.4B if they manage to maintain their status.
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MSSCorps 在 CPO 检测上像垄断
我现在做多 MSSCorps（6830），市值大约 14 亿美元。 这看起来像是 CPO 检测环节的功能性垄断。 但市场可能把它和材料/失效分析混淆了，后者更像 MA-tek 和 iST 那样的寡头格局。 按客户映射来看： 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC 还有很大概率包括 $AVGO、联发科、三星、$MRVL 等等（他们也提到了欧盟）。 如果你感兴趣： - 台北时报把 TSM 说成是客户，Msscorps 为其提供先进材料和失效分析，还点名了苹果、英伟达、Lam、AMAT（也感谢 Latent 和我一起做尽调。英伟达那边还有通过 LinkedIn 之类看到的其他供应链关系） - 对 $AMSL 而言，《台北时报》在 2024 年 9 月 10 日写到：“ASML 采用了 Msscorps 超高灵敏度的光刻胶材料分析” - 对英特尔来说，材料分析实验室 MSSCORPS 已经拿下了英伟达和英特尔等大厂的订单（工业技术研究院） 至于检测（非破坏性红外漏检），他们几乎是垄断。 而且他们还积极使用诉讼（比如 Enli Tech 诉讼）来挡住竞争对手，我把这看成正面因素。 这带来了巨大的定价权和收益率，而且每个主要玩家都要经过他们。 CPO 检测市场也极其关键，和 $AXTI 在 InP 基板环节一样，这种巨大卡点具有纯粹的定价权和提价能力。 风险在于专利诉讼不一定按计划推进，但英伟达和其他超大规模云厂商大概率不会在 MSSCorps 赢了之后去找别家，因为他们不想承担风险。 所以这本身就构成了一个多年期的巨大优势。 超大规模云厂商不会等一个新兴竞争对手证明自己能赢再行动，也不会愿意承担这个风险。 我确实看到了 MSSCorps 因为在 CPO 的关键良率卡点上有机会重估，所以我选择做多（非投资建议，自己做功课），这就是我的思路。
英文原文
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research). For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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TOWA 或成 HBM4 上游受益者
是啊……我越看越觉得，市值约 13.4 亿美元的 $TOWA / $TOWCF（6315），可能会成为 SK 海力士、三星、$MU 在 HBM4 支出中的一个“捡漏”受益者。 它高度周期化，跟支出周期强相关。 但我们看到存储厂商的资本开支在全面上调。 这倒不是那种能 4 倍涨的标的…… 但我的猜测是，新一轮 HBM4 存储周期开始后，必须的资金流入激增会让它被显著重估。 尽管它在这轮新周期里似乎已经被大多数人忘了，但它在压缩建模流程上有垄断地位。 混合键合虽然只是去掉了一个步骤，但仍然需要 Towa（垄断企业往往会拿到更高溢价）。 我也不觉得这轮周期和上一轮一样，因为最近存储公司赚钱的速度实在太夸张了？ 只是我的想法，但如果我的判断没错……等大家都在建 HBM4 产线时，它应该会在 11 日周一（东京时间）的财报里体现出来？
英文原文
Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend from SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU. It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles. But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers. Not exactly a 4x type play... But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway. And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes. Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums) I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently? Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?
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不想被 $1 绑着发帖
有些人因为给了我 1 美元，就觉得自己有权告诉我必须发什么……哈哈。 不过我还是很感激，因为对我来说，这更像是他们觉得我的想法有吸引力，而不是金额本身。 但我更希望自己能在一天中自然地分享想法，而不是被无意中“逼着”发帖。
英文原文
People feel entitled to tell me what I have to post because they gave me a $1 lol… I still appreciate it though, because it’s most symbolic to me of finding my ideas compelling rather than the amount. But I’d prefer just to post my thoughts throughout the day without inadvertent coercison.
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SIVE 仍处早期
@Cassian21828964 如果有什么的话，$SIVE 在 11 亿美元市值下其实非常早期，我认为它今天轻松就该值 20 亿美元以上。 它们站在 CPO / 1.6T 激光的前沿，映射到大量超大规模云厂商，而你现有的激光公司都已经是几百亿美元市值了。 我觉得它就是下一个 $LITE。
英文原文
@Cassian21828964 If anything $SIVE is extremely early at ~$1.1B and I think it should easily be $2B+ today. They’re the bleeding edge of CPO/1.6T lasers mapping to tons of hyperscalers while all your existing laser companies are in the tens of billions. I think it’s the next $LITE.
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信息发现让别人受益
很高兴看到我的关注者正在借助 $SIVE、$AAOI 之类的名字，或者其他名字，摆脱永久性的低层阶级。 股票本来就是正和游戏。 如果信息整合 / 发现是正确的，而且能帮助别人建立自己的判断，那大家都会受益。 我最感谢的还是那 1 美元！
英文原文
Happy to see my followers are escaping the permanent underclass with names like $SIVE, $AAOI, or others. Stocks really are positive sum. Everyone benefits if information synthesis / discovery is correct and helps people from their own conviction. I appreciate the $1 the most!
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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TOWA 是 HBM4 垄断卡点
所以我就直说了：市值 13.5 亿美元的 Towa（6315）…… 它是 HBM4（压缩成型）上很罕见、活生生的垄断定义。 虽然今年到现在几乎没怎么涨，但像 $MU、SK 海力士、三星这些存储厂商都是他们的客户。而且每一家存储厂商的财报都在指向大幅增加 capex。 就连从 $TSM 的财报也能看出来，所有主要半导体公司都在经历一轮巨额资本开支周期，以满足 AI 需求。 三大存储厂商也都从 HBM3E 和 NAND 里赚得很猛……所以下一轮 capex 周期大概不会像上一轮那样了（意思就是花得会更多）。 像 $ASML 一样，这种东西周期性极强，但我想在未来几个月的 HBM4 capex 爆发里拿到敞口。 我想把这个名字和 $LPK（玻璃核心基板）一起放到大家视野里，因为它们都是功能性垄断。 但我确实觉得现在这个时间点刚刚好，毕竟所有机器供应商都在大幅重估，而它相对还是平的。 这也不算什么新发现，因为之前还有别的分析师和一些随机关注者提过这个名字，但希望我这次把时点抓对了。 （免责声明：我确实持仓，这只是我自己想法的 TLDR，请不要跟单）
英文原文
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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把 X 分成收入捐出去
感谢 X 的收入分成项目！ 我最后其实都会把这笔钱转给我喜欢的本地慈善机构，只是平时不太分享。 我尤其喜欢本地宠物收容所，因为我家的狗去年去世了，到现在还没完全走出来。 还有无家可归者相关项目，因为我在加州大学伯克利分校时确实交了很多无家可归的朋友。 到某个阶段，你其实不需要更多钱了。 但它确实能放大你能带来的正面影响，这也是我还在 X 上的原因（而不是退休，我其实可以退）。 真实地活着，对自己诚实，看看你在离开这个世界前还能带来多少正向改变，这种感觉很满足。 我在 X 上的目标一直都是：尽可能帮助散户投资者…… 而不是传统模式下把每一份 alpha 先卖给机构。 行动胜于语言，所以订阅费只要 1 美元，而且我把所有想法 / 思路都免费发给这里所有人（尽管我本可以收 50 美元）。 这样等我离开这天，大家也能自己做出我做的事情！ 接下来我还在想，能不能让散户拥有和 Citadel 以及其他对冲基金一模一样的优势？ 所以我本来打算免费发布定制 LLM（你知道我以前是研究科学家），再用额外的订阅收入去补贴算力 / 数据成本。 我觉得会很好玩！
英文原文
Appreciate the X revenue sharing program! I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share. I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it. And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley. At a certain point, you don't need more money. But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do). It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go? My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most... compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first. Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50). So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day! In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds? So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs. Think it will be fun!