$2B
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SIVE 仍处早期
@Cassian21828964 如果有什么的话，$SIVE 在 11 亿美元市值下其实非常早期，我认为它今天轻松就该值 20 亿美元以上。 它们站在 CPO / 1.6T 激光的前沿，映射到大量超大规模云厂商，而你现有的激光公司都已经是几百亿美元市值了。 我觉得它就是下一个 $LITE。
英文原文
@Cassian21828964 If anything $SIVE is extremely early at ~$1.1B and I think it should easily be $2B+ today. They’re the bleeding edge of CPO/1.6T lasers mapping to tons of hyperscalers while all your existing laser companies are in the tens of billions. I think it’s the next $LITE.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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SIVE 仍有巨大上行
@scrotum_pensif 我还是认为，$SIVE 今天应该值 20 亿美元，而且如果 Ayar、$MRVL、$JBL 等在 2028 年的量产爬坡顺利，明年可以到 100 亿美元以上。 他们现在一切条件都对齐了。
英文原文
@scrotum_pensif I still think $SIVE should be valued $2B today and can hit $10B+ next year depending on volume ramp from Ayar, $MRVL, $JBL and others in 2028 They have all the stars aligned right now.
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SIVE 约 2B 比较合理
@itai_angel 我觉得大约 20 亿美元是合理的。 这只是来自不懂技术的记者推动本地人抛售所带来的短期波动。 这只是股份从散户转移给西方机构 / 投资者的过程。我不会期待它天天都是绿的。
英文原文
@itai_angel Around ~$2B sounds reasonable to me. It's just short term volatility from non-technical journalists scaling all the locals to sell. This is just the process of how shares transfer from retail to Western institutions/investors. Not expecting green every day.
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JBL LRO 的收入模型
我做了一些 $JBL LRO 放量的建模。 按我的个人估算，它会给 Sivers 带来： ~1.2 亿美元 2027 ~2.8 亿美元 2028 ~4.8 亿美元 2029 这对 Sivers 来说是 ARR 级别的收入，考虑到它的市值，已经极其重要了，而且还只算了这个客户本身，不包括 Marvell、Ayar 和其他未确认买家。 我个人当时觉得今天值 20 亿美元以上是合理的，我们看看后面会怎样。
英文原文
I did some modeling of $JBL LRO scale up. And from personal est. it brings in: ~$120M 2027 ~$280M 2028. ~$480M 2029 For ARR to Sivers, which is extremely significant given Sivers MC, from that customer alone. Not including Marvell, Ayar, and other unidentified buyers. I thought $2B+ today was reasonable personally, we’ll see what happens.