$GFS
相关推文
共 77 条 · 按时间倒序 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
-
总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
-
批评 SIVE 忽视美国投资者对增长潜力的关注，导致估值受限。
是的。我真的不明白为什么 $SIVE 仍然专注于瑞典本地市场的沟通和私募融资，而不是美国市场。面对瑞典受众时，你会遇到诸如“如何止血”、“为何不披露私人客户”、“为何聚焦光收发器（这很明显）”以及“非光子订单影响”等引导性或指责性问题。因此，CEO 三分之一的时间都在为“机会管道”的含义进行辩护。而美国分析师会追问：瓶颈期+ASP上涨/经营杠杆下的晶圆厂分配经济影响；这些分配带来的产能收入（美国分析师半数电话会议都问这个）；$GFS 的 NPO/CPO/可插拔规模影响及下游终端客户机会；Ayar 等 CPO 玩家 2028 年量产（刚融资 5 亿+）或 ELS 生产与 O-net 的 TAM 机会；6 家新可插拔玩家的规模，而非质问“为何不披露”；以及 CFO 关于上市时间表和 M&A TAM 扩张的法律声明。这样投资者才能感知 2027-2028 年的未来增长。相反，目前的问答框架聚焦于当前财务（美国投资者不关心）、非光子影响或对措辞的质疑，而非让美国投资者兴奋于 CW 激光瓶颈期的经济影响。$SIVE 在瑞典市场花的时间越多，其估值就越像瑞典公司。
英文原文
Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising. Over the US. The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include: - Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding" - "Why can't you disclosure your private customers" - Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious) - Implications for non-photonics orders So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means" US analysts would have pressed: - Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage - Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts) - $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities - Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there. - How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them" - Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities So investors can get a sense of future growth for 2027-2028. Instead, the way leading questions are framed/answers, the entire calls were focused around current financials (which US investors don't care about), non-photonic implications, or skepticism of wording. Rather than exciting US investors about economic implications from their time in a CW laser bottleneck. The more time $SIVE spends in Swedish markets, the more they will be valued as such.
-
建议用资格认证爬坡和晶圆产能而非管道收入来预测JBL营收。
@dBooray @SoundResponse 我使用“管道收入”(pipeline revenue) 来评估其客户质量相对于此前管道收入预估的情况。例如，$JBL / $GFS 第一季度超过 7 亿美元，而第二季度增加了 6 家可插拔(pluggable)合作伙伴。这并非进行收入预测的理想指标，因为我认为一旦他们扩展产品线（例如向下游延伸至光引擎或完整可插拔模块），其可寻址市场(AM)和爬坡(ramp)表现会好得多。在此期间，我认为追踪 $JBL 的资格认证(qualification)爬坡以及建模为收入的晶圆产能，并假设在短缺情况下能售出，是更好的方法。
英文原文
@dBooray @SoundResponse I use pipeline revenue as a measure est. quality of their customers relative to previous pipeline revenue estimates. Eg. Q1 $JBL / $GFS $700M+, vs. Q2. 6 pluggable partners added. Not really a good figure to go off for revenue projections, since I’d expect addressable market + ramp to be much better once they expand product lines (eg. More downstream into optical engines or complete pluggables). In the meantime I think it’s better to track $JBL / qualification ramps and wafer capacity modeled into revenue, and assume it gets sold given shortages.
-
Sivers凭借激光器产能优势，在供应短缺中获大厂青睐，前景看好。
我看待 $SIVE 的角度如下： 公司/云服务提供商(CSP) 不遗余力地锁定光模块用 CW 激光器产能。 因此，Sivers 带着以下优势进入行业： - 来自 Win Semi 的大规模产能 - 来自新晶圆厂（可能自 2024 年起已进行资格认证）的“目前可用的巨大产能”，因其已合作“一段时间” 此次财报中让我兴奋的是“6 个可插拔/模块”项目（数量巨大）。 我解读的细微差别是： - $COHR 称因内部光模块需求耗尽所有产能，短期内无法对外销售 InP 激光器 - $AAOI 也表示内部消耗了激光器产能（此前并非主要独立供应商） - $LITE 受瓶颈限制，一直在公开市场购买激光器 你之前的独立供应商已将激光器产能转向内部。 因此许多大厂（如 Eoptolink/Innolight 仅为举例）可能正寻求更多激光器来源。 这也符合“具备快速资格认证和爬坡能力”的说法（这与 Series B 初创企业不符）... 很多人问为什么没有到 2030 年的长期协议(LTA)？ -> 你无法随意绕过成熟玩家已完成的资格认证流程。 为何不披露客户？ 正如 $MRVL + $POET 合作所示，你不能随意披露合作供应商。 但“12 亿美元机会管道”几乎翻倍，相对于 $JBL + $GFS 的增幅。这信号表明新的可插拔项目可能比 Jabil 更实质。 因此，如果 $SIVE 在供应短缺期间带来海量 CW DFB 激光器产能... 行业条件已发生重大变化，提高了项目转化率。 加上所有~估算客户 jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (可能 lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 家其他可插拔玩家等。 我认为连点成线后，Sivers 将大获成功。
英文原文
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.
-
博主认为 $SIVE 凭借广泛的光子学客户验证和稀缺产能，是极具性价比的首选标的。
不，$SIVE 是我见过的最独特的 10 亿美元市值光子学公司。仅针对 AI 数据中心： - 为 $GFS SCALE（共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块）提供参考激光器 - 披露了 7 项可插拔模块合作，其中 $JBL 为主要放量客户（H1 2027 时间表） - 与 O-Net 的外部激光源(ELS)路径 - 与 $POET 的 ELS 路径 - 向 Ayar 提供用于 CPO I/O 的激光器（现属 $NVDA nvlink 生态系统） - 为 $AEVA 提供激光器（其已与超大规模云厂商的光引擎供应商达成 NPO 协议） - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence（可能是 2023/2024 年的客户） - 与 Lightium 合作在薄膜铌酸锂(TFLN)上集成磷化铟(InP)激光器 此外，它在行业短缺期间拥有两项实质性的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器产能分配。也是业内少数几家 CPO 级激光器供应商之一。告诉我这个市值范围内还有哪家拥有如此多的持续资格认证、巨大的潜在市场(TAM)且身处光子学领域。就相对于行业内的资格认证路径而言，$SIVE 是我心中的第一选择。
英文原文
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
-
CW激光器瓶颈持续，多厂商产能与新技术进展令博主基本面看好。
CW（连续波）激光器瓶颈持续存在。 -> 2家晶圆厂（Win + 另一主要玩家）为 $SIVE 提供大量产能 -> $JBL 明确的爬坡时间表 - 6家新的可插拔光模块厂商处于评估/后期讨论阶段，带来近期机会 -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (可能包括 Celestial + 其他 CPO 共封装光学玩家)。 -> 甚至未包含他们与 TFLN 等其他技术合作的工作。 对此我基本面非常看好。
英文原文
Massive CW laser bottleneck ongoing. -> 2 foundries (Win + another major player) with substantial capacity for $SIVE -> $JBL clear ramp timing - 6 new pluggable players in eval/later stage disc for near term opportunities -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (potentially Celestial + other CPO players). -> not even including the other work they do with TFLN and others. I'm very positive fundamentally after this.
-
SIVE是GFS和Ayar激光供应商，1.6T/CPO量产需待JBL等通过认证。
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS 将 $SIVE 作为其参考激光设计，并展示其为共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块在 GFS 规模化时的激光供应商。Ayar（领先的 CPO 玩家）也将 $SIVE 列为其主要激光供应商。再次强调，所有这些较新的 1.6T 和 CPO（规模化扩展）架构将在 2027/2028 年量产，如果像 $JBL 这样的厂商尚未通过超大规模客户认证，很难提供具体的量产合同/预测。
英文原文
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS has $SIVE as their reference laser design and showcased them as a laser supplier for CPO/NPO/pluggables for GFS scale. Ayar (leading CPO player) has $SIVE listed as their primary laser supplier. Again all these newer 1.6T and CPO (scale up) architectures ramp in 2027/2028, it's hard to provide concrete volume contracts/projections if players like $JBL haven't qualification with their hyperscaler customers.
-
分析师关注超大规模客户供应链及上游瓶颈，而非争论机会管道。
@nimishx KPI 一直是一致的。它只是产能爬坡情况的指标。分析师主要关注的是其超大规模客户供应商，如 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及其他可插拔/共封装光学(CPO)合作伙伴。以及它们的计划如何扩展，而 $SIVE 处于上游。这比争论机会管道意味着什么更有意义。
英文原文
@nimishx KPI has always been the consistent. It's just an indicator of how things would ramp. Main thing analysts look at are their hyperscaler suppliers like $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and other pluggable/CPO partners. And how their programs scale, with $SIVE sitting upstream. Rather than trying to argue with what opportunity pipelines mean.
-
GFS是27-28年光学重估标的，当前估值低，不建议押注短期。
@jusmentrades 呃，我相当确定 $GFS 是一个 2027-2028 年类型的光学重估故事…… 顺便提一下，他们到 2028 年的远期市盈率约为 11.5 倍，长期为 7.5 倍，所以我不太明白为什么要押注 2026 年 1 个半月的时间框架。 https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
英文原文
@jusmentrades uhh, pretty sure $GFS is a 2027-2028 type optical rerating story... fyi they're like 11.5 fwd p/e ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term, so idk about betting on a 1 1/2 month timeframe in 2026. https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
-
展望SIVE财报，重点关注光子学合作进展、JBL量产及纳斯达克上市计划。
很多人都在关注两天后 $SIVE 的财报。 我关注的重点： 1. 我希望看到更多关于光子学联合开发/认证/合同的可见性。 -> $AAOI 表示多家客户向他们咨询共封装光学(CPO)激光器（但不得不拒绝） -> $MTSI 表示许多客户咨询连续波(CW)产能（但要到2027年下半年才能上线） 所以请仔细阅读关于一家作为 $GFS 参考激光器供应商、为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块（如Intel Siph）、为Ayar提供CPO的公司。 并且处于独立供应商地位： -> 拥有独立的CW DFB供应（与Win semi合作） -> CPO级激光器。 如果有更多客户接近Sivers，这将是非常积极的信号。 2. 持续进展转化为量产 -> 我最兴奋的是 $JBL，这可能是2027年上半年主要的收入增长来源。 -> $AEVA 相比之下可能小得多，但应在2026年下半年有所贡献。 -> Ayar和光I/O玩家已表示2028年才大规模量产(HVM)，所以那里不太期待。 -> 其他可插拔玩家（来自上一份财报）的联合开发转化为认证->量产。 除此之外： 3. 纳斯达克上市 -> 我们已经得到了“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以不再需要进一步细化。得到更新总是好的。 4. 财务数据 -> 再次强调，对于处于认证周期的玩家，当前财务数据不是重点。提醒一下，本季度有一些一次性会计处理，这在表面上会影响数据。 主要看点是未来季度的量产爬坡。 -> 收入管道增加 -> 签署的任何早期量产合同 鉴于最近7000万美元的融资+自举稀释压力消除，资产负债表担忧应该已经消除。 额外惊喜： -> 关于已确保的配额的信息“例如，我们确保了大量的CW产能->鉴于当前的短缺，这将是极高的信号。 -> 重申AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent提到的需求。“例如，我们获得的任何产能都将被需求填满” $AAOI 在表示2027年预计产能约4.71亿美元并重申收入指引后，股价从30美元暴涨至220美元（但随后进行了大量定向增发ATM）。 如果Sivers能给出一个雄心勃勃的多头案例+未来时间表（如2028年上半年）的满产能收入声明，那将很好，但不强求。 进一步的重新评级将有助于通过类似Cloud Light的并购来加速未来财报的收入。 显然Sivers有其他量产爬坡，但我认为光子学是市场主要定价的部分。 无论如何，对即将到来的事情感到兴奋。
英文原文
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
-
Ayar等巨头选用Sivers激光器，验证其供应链核心地位。
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 好问题，主要是关于 $SIVE 的第三方评论+行动。Ayar 可能对我而言信息量最大，他们从官网供应链板块移除了 $LITE / $MTSI，仅单独展示 Sivers 作为激光器供应商。Ayar 副总裁也称 Sivers 是“赋能我们光学 I/O 解决方案的关键”，这是相当强烈的看多信号。还有 $JBL 在选定 Sivers 后构建了 1.6T LRO（长距光学），这非常罕见，并在一次壁炉对话中炫耀其技术护城河。$GFS 也选择 Sivers 作为参考激光器并在演示文稿中展示。感觉所有领先玩家都在因某种原因推进 Sivers？我假设这些领先公司做了尽职调查(DD)。
英文原文
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD
-
看好 $SIVE 作为高贝塔光通信标的，受益于激光器瓶颈及潜在并购。
@Blazedsin 是的，$SIVE 是我首选的高贝塔（High-Beta）光通信多头标的。 这是一家小型公司，为以下领域供应激光器： - 像 $JBL 这样提供可插拔模块的可插拔模块供应商。 - 与 $POET / O-Net 合作的外部光引擎（ELS）+ 光引擎。 - 与 Ayar 等公司合作的光 I/O 扩展。 - 像 $GFS 这样的光子代工（Photonic Foundries），涵盖 NPO/可插拔/CPO 等所有架构。 随着 Win Semi 的独立连续波（CW）产能投产，正值结构性瓶颈期……纳斯达克上市可能在接下来几个季度实现。 而且 CEO 确实懂行 + 与股东利益一致（在二级市场买入股票），稀释程度低就能完成这一切。 他们还暗示了并购（M&A），这对总可寻址市场（TAM）扩张很理想（看看 2023 年下半年 Cloud Light 并购 Lumentum 后发生了什么）。 然后你有 $MTSI，$AAOI 可能不会实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署（参与者池较小）……行业目前面临连续波（CW）短缺，随后才是量产爬坡。针对中国竞争的监管顺风。 我不确定是不是只有我觉得，他们拥有理想的布局，主要缺点是仅在某个小型瑞典交易所上市，这损害了估值。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yeah, $SIVE is my favorite high-beta optical long. You have a small company supplying lasers for: - Hyperscaler suppliers like $JBL with pluggables. - ELS + optical engines with $POET / O-Net. - Scale up with optical I/O with Ayar and others. - Photonic Foundries like $GFS across all architectures like NPO/pluggables/CPO. with independent CW capacity coming online with Win Semi during a structural bottleneck... NASDAQ listing likely in the next few quarters. And the CEO actually knows what he's doing + aligned with shareholders (in terms of buying stock on the open market), with low dilution to get all of this done. And they hinted at M&A, which is ideal for TAM expansion (look at what happened with Lumentum after Cloud Light H2 2023 M&A). Then you have $MTSI, $AAOI likely no meaningful participating in first-gen CPO deployments (smaller pool of players)... Industry CW shortages currently before volume ramp. Regulation tailwinds targeting Chinese competition. I'm not sure if it's just me but they have the ideal setup, main downside is that it's just listed on some small Swedish exchange and that harms valuations.
-
反驳对SIVE的质疑，强调其IP模式独特性及在CPO领域的长期潜力。
@Malinrec - 因为新一代 1.6T 光收发器(1.6T optical transceivers)和共封装光学(CPO)的出货量尚未爬坡。$SIVE 正瞄准所有下一代光学变革。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署始于 2028 年，你不可能在 2024 年获得 9 位数收入。 - $SIVE 拥有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错，其中 1/4 到 1/3 是博士。 他们做的很多是知识产权(IP)，并使用 Win Semi 和外部晶圆厂进行量产爬坡。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，你会看到员工数量激增。 不太明白为什么你说一个向 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 和许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是毫无希望的案例。 这可能是我见过的最独特的案例之一。
英文原文
@Malinrec - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.
-
看好SIVE获代工产能及上市融资，预期2027H1收入拐点。
@wannabepanacea 鉴于目前业界普遍传闻共封装光学(CPO)中的分布式反馈激光器(DFB)短缺，我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能否获得更多晶圆代工产能分配。因为我相当确信，一旦其资格认证进入量产爬坡阶段，产品就会售罄。除此之外： > 其他财报（如 $MTSI / $AAOI）重申的需求/供应失衡有助于佐证这一点。 > 上一份财报中提到的与可插拔(Pluggable)玩家的新进展/资格认证，可能是影响最大的因素。 > 与 $JBL、~ $AEVA、$POET、$GFS 或其他机会的进展，如果能获得初步采购订单(PO)那就太好了。 > 重申纳斯达克上市更新（我们已经得到消息，计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍将此列为优先事项，因为它能为其并购(M&A)活动解锁更多资金，希望用于可插拔技术栈。 我认为收入拐点大约在 2027 年上半年开始，因此当前的收入/利润数据并不重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发表类似“我们制造的任何东西都预计在 2028 年售罄”的声明，那就太棒了。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
-
美政府入股GFS推CPO，利好西方供应链玩家。
@Yeshuaisking11 对于关键矿产，我原本就预料到西方需要尽可能多的补贴来与中国竞争。 美国政府入股 $GFS 以支持共封装光学(CPO)并不在我的预期之内。但这确实表明 CPO 已成为算力供应链的优先事项，且他们已将格芯(Globalfoundries)打造为本土冠军。 我认为这对所有参与美国 CPO 供应链的西方玩家如 $LITE / $SIVE 都是利好。但对世界其他地区的相关企业则不然。
英文原文
@Yeshuaisking11 I kinda expected it for critical minerals since Western needs as much subsidies as possible to compete with China. US Gov taking a stake in $GFS for CPO was not on my calendar. But it does go to show CPO becoming a compute supply chain priority and they made Globalfoundries a domestic champion. Which my thoughts are that it's positive for all the Western players this US CPO supply chains like $LITE / $SIVE. Not so much for other parts of the world.
-
GFS获政府入股支持CPO却股价下跌，对比INTC令人惊讶。
@4intheflames 我并未持有 $GFS，但令我个人惊讶的是，在美国政府为支持其推进共封装光学(CPO)技术而直接入股的消息公布后，其股价仍在下跌。考虑到大家都记得 $INTC 是最近一家受美国政府青睐的晶圆代工厂，这确实令人惊讶。
英文原文
@4intheflames I don't own $GFS, but I'm personally it's surprised it's still down on the news US Gov is taking a direct stake in them for advancing CPO. Surprising to say the least, given everyone remembers $INTC as the latest foundry the US Gov liked.
-
美政府注资GFS加速CPO研发，利好硅光子供应链标的SIVE和LITE。
美国政府将持有 $GFS 1% 的股份，并授予其 3 亿美元用于美国《芯片法案》(CHIPS ACT)。 鉴于该《芯片法案》专门旨在推进共封装光学(CPO) + 硅光子技术(Silicon Photonics)，这实际上是对 $SIVE / $LITE 的强烈利好映射(read through)。 （参考：Sivers 和 Lumentum 是 GFS 演示文稿中提到的唯二两家公开激光供应商。Sivers 激光阵列最近被指定为 Globalfoundries SCALE 用于 CPO 的参考设计。） 根据美国政府公告：“GlobalFoundries 将获得高达 3 亿美元，以将国内 CPO 研发加速两到三年”（NIST） 从未想过我们会看到美国政府 / $INTC 晶圆代工模式在特定 CPO 领域的应用...
英文原文
US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...
-
调研反馈积极，看好AMD CPO路线及上游激光器供应商SIVE。
@88magalhaes 主要看点是高管对共封装光学(CPO)主题性的评论。涉及 $AMD 以及超大规模云服务商的采用情况和时间表。针对此前因延迟消息而抛售的 CPO 板块，调研反馈非常积极。对于该板块中的 $SIVE 反馈也非常积极，因为它是 Ayar 和 $GFS 的激光器供应商，而这两家公司都与 $AMD 可能的 CPO 路线有关。但由于保密原因，无法获得直接供应商的确认。
英文原文
@88magalhaes Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.
-
AMD活动或确认CPO路线，利好SIVE等上游光模块供应商。
情况稍显微妙。基本上，$AMD 的 SF 活动将在明天（周三/周四，7月22-23日）举行。根据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的客户笔记，AMD 预计将提供更多关于其可能的大规模扩展共封装光学(CPO)路线图及 MI500 的披露信息。如果他们确认 CPO 路线，这在主题上将是积极的，因为这意味着不仅仅是 $NVDA 在推动这一转型。至于 $SIVE，如果确认他们直接处于 AMD 供应链中，我们将获得更清晰的认知。目前，可以通过 $GFS（据报道参与 AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 AYAR（AMD 投资的公司）进行映射，但尚无正式确认。因此，如果你正在交易：- CPO 主题利好：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光互联 UALink。- AMD 披露使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE 用于 MI500 CPO：鉴于 $SIVE 是上游激光器供应商/参考激光器，这对他们将极其利好。目前，杰富瑞的 Blayne Curtis 预计 AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节如下：“我们关注 AMD 是否承诺基于 CPO 的大规模扩展解决方案，以及谁提供光引擎”。周三/周四我们将通过供应链获得更广泛的认知，今天尚早，难以定论。
英文原文
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
-
SIVE轻晶圆厂产能模型显示高毛利潜力，CW瓶颈加剧利好，看好其CPO地位及并购上行空间。
很多人对 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi 等）进行产能爬坡建模感到好奇： 假设使用 Win 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端配置（65% 良率假设，$50-$75 ASP）： Sivers 将支撑 $3.41 亿-$5.12 亿的年度阵列营收。鉴于管理层 50-60%+ 毛利率目标的上限，大致为： $2.05 亿-$3.07 亿的年度毛利润。 相对于 Sivers 当前约 $11 亿的市场资本化，若此产能情景在 2028 年实现，约为： 3.6–5.4 倍 市值/毛利润。 若按 15% 计算，毛利润为 $3.07 亿-$4.61 亿（2.4–3.6 倍 市值/毛利润）。 Sivers CEO 也回复称他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以获取产能。从旧版演示文稿看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的资格认证。 因此，随着共封装光学(CPO) 的兴起，产能目标可能比此处陈述的更大。 我也预计未来季度营收管道预测将上调，因为更多合格供应商进入大规模量产(HVM)。 _ 至于需求端，连续波(CW) 激光器也非常瓶颈。 Lumentum 因 ER 财报电话会议中的外延面激光二极管(EML) 义务，正在公开市场购买 CW 激光器。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议(LTA) 以锁定 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET 等合作爬坡时... 鉴于当前的限制，任何上线的独立合格产能很可能被吸收。 锦上添花的是，摩根士丹利将 $SIVE (~$11 亿) 列为三大领先 CPO 激光器玩家之一。 与其近期笔记中 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，是有原因的... _ 总结：Sivers 仅需 Win 的低端配置，相对于当前估值即可产生可观的毛利润。 我认为最大的未建模营收上行空间在于美国纳斯达克上市后的 TAM 扩张与并购。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的剧本，构建整个收发器模块或光引擎。
英文原文
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
-
摩根士丹利研报梳理CPO产业链各环节关键参与者。
摩根士丹利今日发布关于共封装光学(CPO)的研报。关键参与者包括： - 激光供应：$SIVE、$COHR 和 $LITE - 交换平台：博通(Broadcom) 和英伟达(Nvidia) - 光学引擎与光子学：Lightmatter、Ayar Labs、Marvell/Celestial 和 POET - 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)：$TSM、$GFS 和 $TSEM https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
英文原文
Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
-
看好$SIVE，因其作为激光供应商地位稳固且计划上市并购。
@FaceHonor $SIVE 大概是我目前最看好的股票，我不担心短期下跌。 - 你是 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模客户供应商的激光供应商。 - 计划在未来几个季度在纳斯达克上市。 - 随后将通过并购(M&A)目标来扩大总可服务市场(TAM)。
英文原文
@FaceHonor $SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion.
-
博主认为SIVE将成下一个LITE，列举其量产与合作进展。
我个人认为 $SIVE 有望成为下一个 $LITE。 仅在近几个月，我们就看到了： 1. 与 O-Net 的合作推动 ELS 进入大规模生产 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO 大规模生产信号，表明使用 Sivers 的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”。 3. $GFS SCALE 参考设计
英文原文
I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen: 1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers. 3. $GFS SCALE reference
-
@CFc19971622 你傻吗？ 1. $JBL 大规模生产 1.6T LRO 是营收。 2. O-Net 大规模生产 ELS 是营收。 3. $GFS 使用 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心的参考激光器是营收。 4. Ayar 加入 $NVDA NVLink 用于共封装光学(CPO) 并使用 $SIVE 进行大规模生产是营收。 5. 其他可插拔
英文原文
@CFc19971622 Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable
-
SIVE获7000万扩产，多家公司产量爬坡，无视技术面噪音。
@Cped221267 没人应该关心技术分析(TA)图表，因为那只是人们编造出来的曲线，试图说服别人卖出。 $SIVE 刚刚紧急筹集了 7000 万美元，用于大规模量产，很可能是为了从晶圆厂(Foundry)获取产能分配。 随着 $JBL、$POET、$AEVA 等公司在短期内产量爬坡。 然后是 $GFS，
英文原文
@Cped221267 Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell. $SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs. With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term. Then $GFS,
-
光子板块波动剧烈，但长期走势由基本面决定。
@ram_blings 不客气，我不确定大家是否还记得，但 $SIVE 曾因 $GFS 的消息单日上涨 +70%。而 $AAOI 也有随机出现 +20-30% 涨幅的日子。它们同样有能力反向操作。光子学(Photonics)板块波动性很大，但从长期来看，其方向遵循基本面。
英文原文
@ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days. They're also capable of doing the opposite. Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.
-
博主澄清对SIVE极度看好，列举其CPO及高速光模块业务优势。
哦，我觉得你误解了……随着价格下跌，我实际上比以往任何时候都更看好。$SIVE 市值约 19 亿美元，你拥有：- $GFS 参考激光器 - 用于 Ayar 等公司在 $NVDA NVLink 生态系统中进行共封装光学(CPO)规模扩展的激光器 - $POET 等用于 CPO 规模扩展 - $JBL 等用于 1.6T+ 速率
英文原文
oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+
-
博主反思三月未重仓TSEM，并指出GFS和INTC近期暴跌。
哇，$TSEM 今天大涨 10%+。 好时光，回想起来，三月份本应将其作为我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这样的晶圆代工厂最近一直在暴跌。 https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
英文原文
Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
-
澄清误解，论证SIVE在CPO及可插拔光模块中的核心地位，强烈看多。
这是一个误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光器供应商，不仅仅局限于共封装光学(CPO)的规模扩展(scale up)。 可插拔(Pluggable)、规模扩展(scale out) CPO、规模扩展(scale up) CPO、近封装光学(NPO)等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 开启了“神模式”，开发了采用连续波(CW)激光器的 1.6T 光模块。 有效地绕过了电吸收调制激光器(EML)的瓶颈，甚至提高了能效。 根据捷普(Jabil)管理层的说法，他们建立了“相对显著的护城河”。 因此，对于下一代 1.6T 可插拔光模块，Sivers 似乎立即被采用。 市场也错过了这一细微差别：在捷普宣布后，其他可插拔厂商也主动联系，SIVE 现在正与他们合作（可能处于联合开发、资格认证阶段）。 像 Lumentum 这样垂直整合的光模块厂商并不多（想想中际旭创/新易盛，可能还有其他）。 所以这些是正在进行的开发，只是尚未公开披露，随时可能发布新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的 CPO 规模扩展(scale out)，如 $POET，$SIVE 是这些厂商的激光器供应商。 - 规模扩展(scale up) CPO 将在 2027 年下半年到来，来自 Ayar 和英伟达(Nvidia)的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，这是光模块厂商的主要放量阶段。 但在这里，$SIVE 看起来在供应链映射中碾压其他所有玩家。 因为他们很可能早在规模尚小时就与 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等合作并完成了设计导入。 除此之外还有： 对于像 $GFS 这样的晶圆代工厂，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 甚至不包括像 O-Net 这样与 $SIVE 合作构建 ELS 的大公司，可能用于亚洲超大规模数据中心的供应链。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器瓶颈长持标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，他们在新的光学架构中无处不在。
英文原文
That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET , $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS , $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.