北京时间 2026-06-21 15:53:18 · 个股论点

OE Solutions是韩国自主光子学玩家，风险高于SIVE，Q3-Q4或更有趣。

中文翻译

最近我收到了很多关于 OE Solutions (138080) 的询问。以下是我目前的研究/想法：这是一家小型韩国光收发器公司，类似于 $AAOI。他们已成为全球少数 EML（电吸收调制激光器）玩家之一（例如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），拥有稀缺的用于 800G/1.6T 的 100G EML 激光器产能。 OE 似乎正试图制造完整的光收发器，而不仅仅是 EML。他们还有成品 ELSFP CPO（共封装光学）产品，采用 UHP CW（连续波）激光器，预计 Q3 开始送样。同样，OE 似乎也在构建完整的 ELSFP，而不是仅出售 CW 激光器裸片，从而获取更多市场份额。所以你可以将其视为韩国版 AAOI，但主打 EML 而非 CW，且产能/资质较少。正在追赶世界其他玩家。然而就时间线而言： 1. 23dBm 冷却 ELSFP 样品于 2026 年 Q3 开始 2. 800G 的销售基础，以及 2027 年 1.6T “全力”推进 3. 2027 年下半年至 2028 年上半年，其 ELSFP 可能进入量产。而且他们似乎正在研发 200G EML 能力，其 2025 年投资者简报中提到的“100GBaud EML / 200G PAM”似乎很有前景，鉴于其 IP/演示。 ELS 刚刚发布，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器也可能在 2027 年。所以这基本上是韩国的自主光子学玩家，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和更大的玩家。（披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 头寸。这是出于信息目的的基本面研究，非财务建议）。关于 OE 的估值： 1. 这些增长领域似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人理解他们在构建什么。 3. 良率数据相当不确定 1. 客户：我们实际上正处于严重的 EML/CW 激光器短缺中，因此任何独立产能都会备受追捧。我个人认为他们在这里不会很难找到客户。我假设他们生产的任何东西都可能被买断，并会得到韩国的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为其市值+韩国上市不符合许多美国机构的门槛。我也不认为很多人理解他们在构建什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 披露的晶圆/模块利用率低（我记得大约是 31% 未充分利用），所以在需要资本支出之前，他们有足够的材料收入可以产生。我也不确定 EML/CW 和其他良率。可能需要去问公司。这是家随机垃圾公司吗？不。它从事光收发器业务已超过 20 年，在美国和荷兰有研发。但他们整个 AI 增长领域似乎明年才会发生，主要取决于产能/良率。我个人认为 EML/CW 技术如果作为收购目标，可能比当前市值值钱得多。特别是对于想要垂直整合 EML 用于可插拔模块和 CW 激光器用于 CPO 的大玩家。市场可能在等待 Q3 送样后更多关于资质的确定性，或盈利预测公告。想法 TLDR：我的一些朋友去年讨论过，可能太早了。两个月前看到它有很多评论，仍然太早。我认为现在仍然太早，但 Q3-Q4 后期可能更有趣。我个人认为它比主要 CPO 玩家如 $SIVE 风险大得多，后者已嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和许多其他超大规模供应商。也有 Win Semi 等降低量产风险。因为 OE Solutions 看起来像是一个新玩家，试图为光收发器构建一个 $AAOI，但拥有自主 EML 和 CW 激光器生产用于 CPO 产品。关于客户+量产爬坡有很多未解问题，存在重大风险。但如果你相信韩国能构建出 800G/1.6T 光收发器 EML 供应链和带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP。通过 OE Solutions，可能值得看一眼。仍在研究该公司，只是初步想法。

英文原文

I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI . And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR , $LITE , Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE , $AAOI , and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL , $GFS , and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.

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