概念词典 · 技术
CPO 共封装光学
把光收发器封装到 ASIC/交换芯片旁边的封装级集成方案，绕过传统可插拔光模块的功耗、带宽与信号衰减瓶颈。
别名： CPO／ 共封装光学／ 共封装／ co-packaged optics／ co-packaged-optics
是什么
传统数据中心里，光信号从光模块（pluggable transceiver）出来要走一段电信号才到 ASIC，走电信号的这段距离正在成为 AI 算力扩展的硬瓶颈：信号衰减、功耗陡升、PCB 板上挤不进更多通道。
共封装光学（Co-Packaged Optics, CPO） 把光引擎直接焊到 ASIC 旁边的封装基板上，电信号路径从厘米级缩到毫米级，单端口能耗下降 30-50%，单封装可堆叠的端口数翻倍。
为什么这是 AI 时代的关键
GB200 / B200 这一代 GPU 之后，每颗 GPU 的对外 IO 带宽要求超出传统光模块物理极限。要么继续用昂贵的电气 retimer 续命，要么换 CPO。NVIDIA 在 2024 GTC 已确认 Quantum-X800/Spectrum-X800 走 CPO 路线，AVGO/Marvell 紧跟。
Serenity 的视角
他从 2024 年开始反复强调 “CPO is the photonics chokepoint”——光模块行业表面繁荣，但真正能在 CPO 时代活下来的是少数掌握 DFB 激光器、CW 激光、磷化铟（InP）衬底的上游公司，而不是组装环节。
代表案例：
- $COHR Coherent：CEO 多次公开确认 CPO 是公司”最重要的长期增长机会”
- $SIVE Sivers Semiconductors：DFB 激光器纯粹玩家，三个月涨幅 1900% 的传奇标的
- $LITE Lumentum：传统光模块巨头，受益于 CPO 但稀释更严重
- $POET：被他列入 “Fake it Until you make it” 警示名单，不是所有 CPO 故事都是真的
时间线（行业共识）
- 2026H2: 初始 scale-out CPO 收入开始
- 2027H2: scale-up CPO 收入跟进
- 2028+: 主流化，传统 pluggable 收入开始下滑
提到此概念的推文 (497)
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AI供应链瓶颈加剧，内存/基板/光学组件供应紧张，利好相关标的。
本周我发现的有趣内容摘要： - $INTC CEO 表示部分内存价格已上涨 5-7 倍，并警告短缺将在 2027 年恶化。 $SNDK / $MU / 三星兄弟听到这个会很开心……（来自圣克拉拉 2026 AI 基础设施峰会） - $GFS + $MRVL 签署延长 SiGe 产能协议，用于可插拔/NPO/CPO。"预计将增加显著产能以支持 Marvell 日益增长的需求。" 鉴于 $SIVE 是 SCALE 的参考激光器，我喜欢关注 Globalfoundries 的相关更新。 - $CIEN 预计至 FY2029 年收入年增约 30%，调整后毛利率 50%，自由现金流利润率 20%。 公司称组件可用性而非需求限制了增长……似乎从 $NVDA 到上游供应商，供应都是限制收入增长的因素。 - 华邦电子以 11.2 亿美元收购英飞凌的 NOR Flash 和 F-RAM 业务。 鉴于 NOR Flash ASP 和重要性持续上升，我很惊讶英飞凌会出售，但这有利于华邦的整合。 - 三星据报道扩大 DDR5 模块和 SSD 组装的外包。 我认为一些台湾本地报告将创见和宇瞻标记为潜在受益者。报告具体点名了 Dreamtech、Hanyang Digitech 和 SFA Semicon。 我注意到其他韩国公司进入新的三星电子合同，可能是为了传统内存模块，大概 1-2 个月前……所以认为一些媒体评论可能也错过了这一点。也许太小以至于他们没注意到？ - $NBIS 三个月内第二次提高 AI 云价格（~17-21%），对其他 Neoclouds 如 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的财报是利好解读。 - $AMZN 与 $GNRC 签署 24 亿美元协议，用于 2027-2028 年的发电机交付……并获得了与高达 80 亿美元总采购额挂钩的认股权证。 值得关注亚马逊与谁签署这些认股权证协议（例如 Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL 等）以及他们想要什么样的基础设施采购。 - $TSEM 和 NewPhotonics 开始批量出货激光集成光学引擎。 不熟悉 NewPhotonics，所以这里不多评论。但今天会做点研究。 - 高盛据报道认为 ABF 缺口将从 14% 扩大到 51%。预测短缺为 2026 下半年 14%，2027 年 34%，2028 年 51%…… 更多的基板瓶颈内容，关于需求不平衡并不令人惊讶。 - Crusoe 以 309 亿美元估值融资 39 亿美元。 好吧，这个估值比 Instinct 以 10 万用户为基础以泡沫 100 亿美元估值融资要好…… - 日本和美国据报道讨论价值 129-193 亿美元的 $GFS 运行晶圆厂。 这相当于 Globalfoundries 市值的一半 lol。这里没有太多细节。 - $ARM CEO Rene Haas 表示他有信心确保足够的供应以满足 20 亿美元的客户订单（针对其 AGI CPU）。 可能还有更多需求，可能像往常一样是供应受限的增长，所以 $ARM 发出确保分配的信心信号是好事。 - 供应链消息人士称 Kioxia 约 50% 的 LTA 产能已被占用，而 SK Hynix/三星为 3-5 年的 LTA 预留约 70% 的产能。 不确定人们为何看空内存…… 我不喜欢像新闻播报员一样逐个发布更新，所以希望这能节省大家查看我喜欢关注的内容的时间。 顺便说一句，惊讶于 $AMD 到 $INTC 的市场在加息后今天反弹。认为高贝塔值在抛售中超调最多。
英文原文
TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.
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看好SIVE激光器产能规模及CPO放量带来的定价权
@NFTs_Mvp 是的，我非常惊喜，$SIVE 正在瞄准的激光器产能规模巨大。而且 2027 年第四季度的运营时间比我预期的要早得多（大约在共封装光学(CPO)激光器开始规模化出货时）。在供应短缺期间，我预计西方激光器的平均售价(ASP)将拥有更强的定价权，因为
英文原文
@NFTs_Mvp Yes surprised in a very good way, the amount of laser capacity $SIVE is targeting is enormous. And Q4 2027 operation is a lot sooner than I expected (around initial cpo scale up laser shipments) During shortages, I expect western laser ASP to have stronger pricing power as
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分析MRVL光学项目激光采购地传闻，质疑其合理性。
@Mohsen20Es 供应商关系不会公开，这就是为什么研究这些线索很有趣。 我发现 $MRVL 的光学项目(CPO)负责人在激光供应采购上考虑欧洲，这非常有趣。 这就像他们随机在供应链中点名非洲一样，（暗示这种说法不合常理或令人惊讶）。
英文原文
@Mohsen20Es Supplier relationships are not going to be public, which is why it's fun looking into these clues. I just found it very interesting $MRVL optical program lead had Europe in mind for laser supply sourcing. It's like if they randomly named dropped Africa for supply chains,
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指出市场忽视SIVE在CPO激光器的地位，且过度聚焦可插拔模块。
@dockery58 是的，共封装光学(CPO)的出货量甚至还没开始……大家都忘了 $SIVE 是主要的 CPO 激光器供应商，因为管理层过于聚焦无线/5G/固定无线接入(FWA)/卫星通信。像 $JBL 这样的可插拔模块(Pluggables)本应是 2028 年 CPO 放量的过渡桥梁，但不知为何成了主导焦点。
英文原文
@dockery58 Yeah, CPO volumes haven’t even started… everyone forgot that $SIVE was a major CPO laser supplier because management focused so much around wireless/5g/fwa/satcom. Pluggables like $JBL were supposed to be the bridge for 2028 CPO ramp but somehow became the dominant focus.
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分析英伟达投资偏好及半导体、机器人供应链关键瓶颈与趋势。
@Bejewele_din_Fr - 英伟达($NVDA) 喜欢投资专用集成电路(ASIC) 公司 - 内存/多层陶瓷电容器(MLCC)/ABF载板/绝缘体上硅(SOI) 因长期可见性而令人兴奋(brrr) - 传统DRAM 因中国内存向高端转移而令人兴奋(brrr) - 中欧就企业问题展开博弈 - 共封装光学(CPO) 时间线保持不变 - 机器人领域的行星滚柱丝杠很酷
英文原文
@Bejewele_din_Fr - Nvidia likes investing in ASIC companies - Memory/MLCC/ABF/SOI brrr from long term visibility - legacy dram to brrr from Chinese memory moving to higher end - China EU fighting over companies - cpo timeline in tact - planetary roller screws in robotics are cool
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SIVERS 运营理想但沟通糟糕致股价大跌，属执行失败。
@halldj00 @wannabepanacea 两者皆有，主要围绕沟通。运营层面看起来理想，拥有捷普(Jabil)、格芯(GlobalFoundries)、Ayar 以及约 6 个可插拔模块项目，且在重大瓶颈期拥有 2 个晶圆厂产能。$JBL 的时间线符合我的预期。但沟通重点集中在短期无线/收入+财务数据以安抚当地投资者，而非共封装光学(CPO)等其他重大未来经济机会。沟通也非常糟糕且含糊其辞，尤其是与两个月前相比，关于纳斯达克上市(Nasdaq listing)的表述。这是我非常不满的唯一实质性延误，因为尽管完成了 57 亿瑞典克朗的机构融资轮，这仍属于执行失败。CFO 添加的法律措辞毫无理由地引入了不确定性，而此前并无多少不确定性。市场毫不犹豫地让 $SIVERS 股价因这种愚蠢的规避措辞下跌 28%。
英文原文
@halldj00 @wannabepanacea Bit of both, mainly around communication. Operationally things look ideal, they have Jabil, globalfoundries, Ayar, and ~6 pluggable engagements, with 2 foundry capacity during a major bottleneck. $JBL timelines were in line with what I expected. But communication focused around focused on near term wireless/revenue + financials to appease local investors. Instead of significant future economic opportunities for CPO/others. Communication was also horrendous and noncommittal, especially around Nasdaq listing compared to two months ago. This was the only material delay I’m very unhappy with, since it’s an execution failure despite having the 57 SEK institutional fundraising round. And the legal language that the CFO added just introduces uncertainty for no reason, when there wasn’t much before then. Market definitely not hestitate sending sivers down 28% from that stupid language hedging
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批评 Sivers 管理层缺乏重组紧迫感，忽视光子学机遇。
@wannabepanacea 管理层的感觉与我日益脱节。Sivers 本可利用当前的瓶颈围绕光子学进行彻底重组。利用美国资本加速时间表，并借助纳斯达克(NASDAQ)推动 1.6T/共封装光学(CPO) 的进一步增长。但感觉不到紧迫感，尤其是在上市时间表上。我也真心不理解为何持续强调卫星通信(SATCOM)/无线业务，这部分本应剥离。或者那些相对于光子学总可寻址市场(TAM)而言微不足道的短期合同价值。完全没有提及 Ayar、格芯(GlobalFoundries) 以及美国投资者关心的任何其他大项目。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea Management feels increasingly misaligned with my expections Sivers could use the current bottleneck to radically restructure around photonics. Use US capital to speed up timelines, and leverage NASDAQ for further growth with 1.6T/CPO. But got no sense of urgency, especially on listing timelines. I also genuinely don't understand continuous emphasis on SATCOM/Wireless which would be better off divested. Or the near term contract values that are invisible relative to photonics TAM. Not a single mention of Ayar, globalfoundries, and any other big program that US investors care about.
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梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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联发科与Ayar合作CPO，SIVE为其激光器供应商但偏上游。
@Matrix_B0SS 我今天才知道，根据公开文件，联发科(Mediatek)是共封装光学(CPO)领域Ayar的合作伙伴（不仅仅是投资者）。当然，众所周知，$SIVE 是 Ayar 的主要激光器供应商。但 Sivers 目前可能处于产业链的上游环节。 https://t.co/gs8e1z2rf1
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS I actually learned today that Mediatek is partners with Ayar for CPO (not just investors) from public filings. And of course it's known that $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. But Sivers is probably too far upstream for now. https://t.co/gs8e1z2rf1
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Celestial若上市估值或达百亿，强调CPO资格认证周期价值而非短期亏损。
假设 Celestial（$MRVL 的收购标的）是上市公司。其估值在美国市场可能会是天价（我猜约 60-100 亿美元）。因为 2028 年营收预测为 5 亿美元（Q4 年化运行率），2029 年营收预测为 10 亿美元。而且 Celestial 是超大规模数据中心共封装光学(CPO) 计划的核心部分。Celestial 的 2026 年 Q2 财报会是：- 营收接近 0（Marvell 称“自收购以来的营收和利润并不重大”）- 每季度亏损 1250 万美元（每年 5000 万美元）。那些懂行的、关注资格认证周期(qualification cycle) 玩家的人会怎么说... 1. 基于 Celestial 的 Q2 市销率(P/S) 且因为它每季度亏损 1250 万美元... 说它是一只毫无价值的 meme 股？还是 2. 鉴于 2028 年 CPO 超大规模数据中心的机会，它应该被估值 60-100 亿美元？我认为这是美/欧文化 + 市场之间的核心文化分歧。如果你知道如何评估资格认证周期玩家，哪个数字才真正重要？我认为毫无疑问是后者。
英文原文
Imagine Celestial ($MRVL acquisition) was public. The valuation would probably be astronomical in US markets (if I had to guess, $6-10B) Because 2028 revenue projections were $500m (q4 annualized runrate), 2029 revenue projections were $1B. And because Celestial is a core part of hyperscaler CPO programs. Celestial's 2026 Q2 earnings would have been: - Close to $0 revenue (Marvell said "revenue and earnings since the acquisition were not material") - Losing -$12.5M/quarter ($50M/year) Would people who knew what they were talking about looking at qualification cycle players say... 1. based on Celestial's Q2 P/S numbers and because it was losing -$12.5M a quarter... That it's a worthless meme stock? Or 2. with CPO hyperscaler opportunities for 2028, it should be valued at $6-10B? And I think that's a core cultural disagreement between US / EU cultures + markets. If you knew how to evaluate qualification cycle players, which number actually matters? I'd argue overwhelmingly the latter.
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台积电高管指出光引擎非瓶颈，激光器、光纤及测试环节才是部署关键。
$TSM 先进封装副总裁： “晶圆代工厂可以扩大光引擎的产能，但大规模部署的真正瓶颈在于其他地方…… 包括激光器、光纤、光纤连接器和测试”（UDN） 以下是一些分类思路： 激光器：$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa 光纤/FAU（光纤阵列单元）：Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo 光纤/CPO（共封装光学）连接器：BizLink, $GLW, Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO测试：MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma （披露：我持有上述主题的相关敞口，具体个股名称并非由台积电指定） 我也喜欢其他标的，例如ShunSin，它现在明确拥有TSMC COUPE（共封装统一封装引擎）的敞口，但可能属于封装/集成等不同类别。 例如：“富士康旗下ShunSin确认与台积电COUPE合作” 我认为相比上半年并没有太多新内容，除了持续的新闻（例如上周报告指出FAU在2027年可能出现供需失衡）。 但偶尔重申整体受益者还是很有帮助的……
英文原文
$TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging: "Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere... Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN) Just some bucket ideas: Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma (disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC) There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration. eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership" I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week). But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...
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总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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批评 SIVE 忽视美国投资者对增长潜力的关注，导致估值受限。
是的。我真的不明白为什么 $SIVE 仍然专注于瑞典本地市场的沟通和私募融资，而不是美国市场。面对瑞典受众时，你会遇到诸如“如何止血”、“为何不披露私人客户”、“为何聚焦光收发器（这很明显）”以及“非光子订单影响”等引导性或指责性问题。因此，CEO 三分之一的时间都在为“机会管道”的含义进行辩护。而美国分析师会追问：瓶颈期+ASP上涨/经营杠杆下的晶圆厂分配经济影响；这些分配带来的产能收入（美国分析师半数电话会议都问这个）；$GFS 的 NPO/CPO/可插拔规模影响及下游终端客户机会；Ayar 等 CPO 玩家 2028 年量产（刚融资 5 亿+）或 ELS 生产与 O-net 的 TAM 机会；6 家新可插拔玩家的规模，而非质问“为何不披露”；以及 CFO 关于上市时间表和 M&A TAM 扩张的法律声明。这样投资者才能感知 2027-2028 年的未来增长。相反，目前的问答框架聚焦于当前财务（美国投资者不关心）、非光子影响或对措辞的质疑，而非让美国投资者兴奋于 CW 激光瓶颈期的经济影响。$SIVE 在瑞典市场花的时间越多，其估值就越像瑞典公司。
英文原文
Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising. Over the US. The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include: - Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding" - "Why can't you disclosure your private customers" - Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious) - Implications for non-photonics orders So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means" US analysts would have pressed: - Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage - Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts) - $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities - Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there. - How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them" - Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities So investors can get a sense of future growth for 2027-2028. Instead, the way leading questions are framed/answers, the entire calls were focused around current financials (which US investors don't care about), non-photonic implications, or skepticism of wording. Rather than exciting US investors about economic implications from their time in a CW laser bottleneck. The more time $SIVE spends in Swedish markets, the more they will be valued as such.
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博主认为 $SIVE 凭借广泛的光子学客户验证和稀缺产能，是极具性价比的首选标的。
不，$SIVE 是我见过的最独特的 10 亿美元市值光子学公司。仅针对 AI 数据中心： - 为 $GFS SCALE（共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块）提供参考激光器 - 披露了 7 项可插拔模块合作，其中 $JBL 为主要放量客户（H1 2027 时间表） - 与 O-Net 的外部激光源(ELS)路径 - 与 $POET 的 ELS 路径 - 向 Ayar 提供用于 CPO I/O 的激光器（现属 $NVDA nvlink 生态系统） - 为 $AEVA 提供激光器（其已与超大规模云厂商的光引擎供应商达成 NPO 协议） - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence（可能是 2023/2024 年的客户） - 与 Lightium 合作在薄膜铌酸锂(TFLN)上集成磷化铟(InP)激光器 此外，它在行业短缺期间拥有两项实质性的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器产能分配。也是业内少数几家 CPO 级激光器供应商之一。告诉我这个市值范围内还有哪家拥有如此多的持续资格认证、巨大的潜在市场(TAM)且身处光子学领域。就相对于行业内的资格认证路径而言，$SIVE 是我心中的第一选择。
英文原文
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
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CW激光器瓶颈持续，多厂商产能与新技术进展令博主基本面看好。
CW（连续波）激光器瓶颈持续存在。 -> 2家晶圆厂（Win + 另一主要玩家）为 $SIVE 提供大量产能 -> $JBL 明确的爬坡时间表 - 6家新的可插拔光模块厂商处于评估/后期讨论阶段，带来近期机会 -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (可能包括 Celestial + 其他 CPO 共封装光学玩家)。 -> 甚至未包含他们与 TFLN 等其他技术合作的工作。 对此我基本面非常看好。
英文原文
Massive CW laser bottleneck ongoing. -> 2 foundries (Win + another major player) with substantial capacity for $SIVE -> $JBL clear ramp timing - 6 new pluggable players in eval/later stage disc for near term opportunities -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (potentially Celestial + other CPO players). -> not even including the other work they do with TFLN and others. I'm very positive fundamentally after this.
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SIVE获新晶圆产能及6家新客户，解决CW激光器瓶颈，博主看多。
$SIVE 财报电话会纪要刚出，简而言之： - 现在有6家新的可插拔模块厂商正在与 Sivers 合作。 这可能是继新晶圆厂产能分配之外，本次财报最大的新闻。 “3家处于Alpha样品评估阶段”，另外3家处于技术对接/供应评估阶段。” 这也解释了为什么他们12亿美元的营收管道大幅膨胀（因为这次飞跃比 Jabil 更大）。 - 预计与 $JBL 的初始生产订单将在2027年上半年下达，量产爬坡计划于2027年下半年进行。 冲啊，Jabil 是巨大的超大规模客户供应商，终于有了明确的量产营收时间表。 - “新的晶圆厂合作伙伴带来了现已可用的巨大产能” 这正是我想听到的。显然他们为此筹备已久，因为产能“现已可用”，这非常关键。 连续波激光器(CW lasers)严重短缺，而 $SIVE 引入了 Win Semi 之外的新供应源（也降低了风险）。 正如你从其他合格的 CW 厂商那里听到的（他们生产的任何东西都能卖光），随着 Sivers 的合作伙伴完成资格认证，我预计情况会相同。 - “长期产能模型中，三分之一的制造产能将内部化，而三分之二来自我们的晶圆厂合作伙伴” 对此反应冷淡，虽然他们最终需要像 $AAOI / $LITE 那样垂直整合是有道理的，但这意味着更多的资本支出（最好在纳斯达克上市后再进行）。 正如你在 ESMT + DDR2 瓶颈中看到的，仅在短缺期间通过无晶圆厂模式确保晶圆所带来的营业利润是惊人的。 而且用未来的现金流来资助这一点会更合理。 - 纳斯达克上市正在进行中。CFO 给出了非常像律师的回答，但一如既往地在正轨上。 - “我们目前不认为生产能力是瓶颈” 这很有意义，因为随着新的晶圆厂合作伙伴加入，意味着 $SIVE 正在为一个瓶颈市场中提供非常关键的 CW 激光器供应。 简而言之： - 新的实质性晶圆厂产能分配！（在 CW 激光器短缺期间非常、非常关键） - 除了 $JBL 之外的6家新可插拔模块厂商 - 来自 Jabil 的明确营收爬坡时间表 对可插拔模块 -> 非平面光学(NPO) -> 共封装光学(CPO) 的重点关注似乎是演进路径。唯一反应冷淡的是建立内部产能，但长期来看是积极的。 总之，读完纪要后我非常高兴，除了可能优先投资激光器产能而非 IP 收购（这在行业短缺期间也是可以接受的）。 6家新的可插拔模块厂商 + “现已可用”的实质性晶圆分配，这是一个相当惊人的披露。
英文原文
$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR: - 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now. Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations. "3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage." And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil). - Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027 LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp. - "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now" This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL. CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks). As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same. - "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners" Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing). As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible. And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road. - NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual. - "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time" This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market. TLDR: - NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage) - 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL - Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive. Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition. The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.
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SIVE是GFS和Ayar激光供应商，1.6T/CPO量产需待JBL等通过认证。
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS 将 $SIVE 作为其参考激光设计，并展示其为共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块在 GFS 规模化时的激光供应商。Ayar（领先的 CPO 玩家）也将 $SIVE 列为其主要激光供应商。再次强调，所有这些较新的 1.6T 和 CPO（规模化扩展）架构将在 2027/2028 年量产，如果像 $JBL 这样的厂商尚未通过超大规模客户认证，很难提供具体的量产合同/预测。
英文原文
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS has $SIVE as their reference laser design and showcased them as a laser supplier for CPO/NPO/pluggables for GFS scale. Ayar (leading CPO player) has $SIVE listed as their primary laser supplier. Again all these newer 1.6T and CPO (scale up) architectures ramp in 2027/2028, it's hard to provide concrete volume contracts/projections if players like $JBL haven't qualification with their hyperscaler customers.
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分析师关注超大规模客户供应链及上游瓶颈，而非争论机会管道。
@nimishx KPI 一直是一致的。它只是产能爬坡情况的指标。分析师主要关注的是其超大规模客户供应商，如 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及其他可插拔/共封装光学(CPO)合作伙伴。以及它们的计划如何扩展，而 $SIVE 处于上游。这比争论机会管道意味着什么更有意义。
英文原文
@nimishx KPI has always been the consistent. It's just an indicator of how things would ramp. Main thing analysts look at are their hyperscaler suppliers like $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and other pluggable/CPO partners. And how their programs scale, with $SIVE sitting upstream. Rather than trying to argue with what opportunity pipelines mean.
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LPK因GCS延迟推迟，SIVE供应1.6T/CPO激光器，架构预计27-28年落地。
@whatdahellson 情况略有不同，鉴于三星电机/SKC Absolics 等行业光组件(GCS)的延迟，$LPK 的收入可能已被推迟。 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 长距光学(LRO)、Ayar 共封装光学(CPO)及其他厂商的激光器供应商。 1.6T/CPO 并没有出现可信的延迟，只是在等待资格认证完成以便批量合同下达。这些架构将在 2027-2028 年落地。
英文原文
@whatdahellson It's slightly different since $LPK revenue has likely been delayed given industry GCS delays with Samsung Electro-mechanics/SKC Absolics $SIVE is the laser supplier to $JBL 1.6T LRO, Ayar for CPO, and others. There's been no credible delays to 1.6T/CPO, it's just waiting for their qualifications to finish before volume contracts flow. Those architectures are 2027-2028.
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英伟达财报超预期，指引强劲，AI需求无放缓迹象，超额收益转向供应链。
$NVDA 财报要点(TLDR)： 营收：962.2亿美元 vs. 约921.7亿美元（超预期） 调整后每股收益(Adj. EPS)：2.22美元 vs. 2.09-2.10美元（超预期） 数据中心(DC)：890亿美元 vs. 约863亿美元（超预期） 调整后毛利率：75% vs. 75% 超大规模客户(Hyperscaler)营收：487.1亿美元，上季度为430.5亿美元（定制ASIC的增长并未真正阻止该营收加速） 关于指引： 营收：1080亿美元 vs. 约1042亿美元 调整后毛利率：74% vs. 75%（这几乎是唯一的疲软点） 过去4个季度的营收增长确实令人难以置信。 -> 681亿美元 -> 816亿美元 -> 962亿美元（当前） -> 下季度指引：1080亿美元，尽管假设中国数据中心计算营收为零。 有趣的是，英伟达表示其承诺从上一季度的1190亿美元跳升至2790亿美元，主要与未来几年的内存采购有关。所以内存需求会持续飙升。 要点：AI热潮持续不断。英伟达显然处于领先地位，且没有明显的需求放缓迹象。 鉴于英伟达已是5万亿美元+市值的公司，我认为现在的超额收益(alpha)主要来自英伟达的架构/容量决策如何影响供应链的其他环节（例如共封装光学(CPO)、内存、800V电源）。 而不是简单地寻找英伟达自身的定价错误。 无论如何，所有有趣的事情将在几分钟后的财报电话会议中发生。
英文原文
$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.
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CW激光器产能紧缺，$SIVE作为剩余现货供应商受益。
我知道大家都在关注 $NVDA 的财报…… 但你们知道 Landmark 已与美国客户签署为期4年的连续波(CW)协议以确保“充足供应”吗？ 所以现在的格局是： - $LITE（产能耗尽） - $COHR（产能耗尽） - Landmark（产能已锁定） - $AAOI（光模块产能） - $MTSI（尚未量产） - $SMTC（产能有限） 我记得今年早些时候说过，CW激光器将是下一个光学变革，且会被 Nvidia 严重瓶颈化？ 看着这一切上演很有趣，参与者已签署至2030年的长期协议(LTA)（暗示其他玩家可用产能更少）。 这对 $SIVE / Win Semi 的影响非常重大，因为它是少数拥有产能（+ CPO级激光器）的剩余CW现货供应商之一。 让我们看看他们的执行情况。
英文原文
I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.
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SIVE抛压耗尽，预计财报催化后股价恢复正常。
@HealytheGOATT 股价大幅下跌主要是因为 Bootstrap Europe 从 7 月 3 日到 8 月 18 日左右完成期间，将其持有的 7% 流通股在瑞典市场抛售。与此同时，AI 板块整体下跌、共封装光学(CPO) 延迟的误报以及做空者的时机选择也加剧了跌势。两周前剩余的 165.9 万份认股权证(warrants) 似乎也在市场强势时被抛售。这种抛压(overhang) 已基本耗尽，因此我认为 $SIVE 在出现催化剂（如财报）后将恢复正常。
英文原文
@HealytheGOATT Price took a hit largely due to Boostrap Europe converting 7% of shares outstanding and selling that into the Swedish market from ~July 3rd to maybe ~August 18th completion. That happened alongside the overall AI sector drop + incorrect reports of CPO delays + short sellers with timing. There was the final 1.659M in warrants from 2 weeks ago, and looks like it got sold into market strength. That overhang is largely exhausted, so I think $SIVE will go back to normal after a catalyst (like earnings).
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展望SIVE财报，重点关注光子学合作进展、JBL量产及纳斯达克上市计划。
很多人都在关注两天后 $SIVE 的财报。 我关注的重点： 1. 我希望看到更多关于光子学联合开发/认证/合同的可见性。 -> $AAOI 表示多家客户向他们咨询共封装光学(CPO)激光器（但不得不拒绝） -> $MTSI 表示许多客户咨询连续波(CW)产能（但要到2027年下半年才能上线） 所以请仔细阅读关于一家作为 $GFS 参考激光器供应商、为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块（如Intel Siph）、为Ayar提供CPO的公司。 并且处于独立供应商地位： -> 拥有独立的CW DFB供应（与Win semi合作） -> CPO级激光器。 如果有更多客户接近Sivers，这将是非常积极的信号。 2. 持续进展转化为量产 -> 我最兴奋的是 $JBL，这可能是2027年上半年主要的收入增长来源。 -> $AEVA 相比之下可能小得多，但应在2026年下半年有所贡献。 -> Ayar和光I/O玩家已表示2028年才大规模量产(HVM)，所以那里不太期待。 -> 其他可插拔玩家（来自上一份财报）的联合开发转化为认证->量产。 除此之外： 3. 纳斯达克上市 -> 我们已经得到了“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以不再需要进一步细化。得到更新总是好的。 4. 财务数据 -> 再次强调，对于处于认证周期的玩家，当前财务数据不是重点。提醒一下，本季度有一些一次性会计处理，这在表面上会影响数据。 主要看点是未来季度的量产爬坡。 -> 收入管道增加 -> 签署的任何早期量产合同 鉴于最近7000万美元的融资+自举稀释压力消除，资产负债表担忧应该已经消除。 额外惊喜： -> 关于已确保的配额的信息“例如，我们确保了大量的CW产能->鉴于当前的短缺，这将是极高的信号。 -> 重申AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent提到的需求。“例如，我们获得的任何产能都将被需求填满” $AAOI 在表示2027年预计产能约4.71亿美元并重申收入指引后，股价从30美元暴涨至220美元（但随后进行了大量定向增发ATM）。 如果Sivers能给出一个雄心勃勃的多头案例+未来时间表（如2028年上半年）的满产能收入声明，那将很好，但不强求。 进一步的重新评级将有助于通过类似Cloud Light的并购来加速未来财报的收入。 显然Sivers有其他量产爬坡，但我认为光子学是市场主要定价的部分。 无论如何，对即将到来的事情感到兴奋。
英文原文
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
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FAU产能不足或成CPO瓶颈，印证此前对NVDA/TSM供应链的预判。
我知道大家都在关注那些模仿南希·佩洛西的跟单者让 $BE 暴涨 11.83%。或者特朗普…… 但你们知道还有什么很酷的吗？ 共封装光学(CPO) 的 FAU 瓶颈。 我记得今年早些时候说过，FAU/Foci 可能会成为 $TSM / $NVDA CPO 路线图未来的瓶颈…… 这是支持这一观点的媒体评论： “据悉， Largan Precision (3008)、FOCI (3363) 和中国的 TFC 已进入 $NVDA FAU 供应链” “基于今年预计出货的 20,000 台 Spectrum-X 系统，这些系统中安装的光引擎将需要大约 60 万至 70 万个 FAU” “2027 年，需求预计将达到数百万台，而现有供应链产能目前无法满足需求。”（联合报，中文翻译为英文有点偏差） 咳咳，“现有供应链产能目前无法满足需求” 现在有点早，因为大规模生产预计要到 2027 年下半年，但读到这些更新还是很酷。
英文原文
I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump... But you know what else is cool? FAU bottlenecks for CPO. I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps... This was some media commentary supporting that: "It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain" "Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs" In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off) Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand" Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.
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硅光子+CW主导CPO，激光元件供不应求，2027-28年或现短缺。
@OnurKocerr 不，EML、CW、microLEDs 都是并行路线，硅光子+CW 是 2027-2028 年的主要商业化重点，尤其是共封装光学(CPO)。如果有的话，内存/光互连增加了激光供应商（包括 CW DFB）的总可寻址市场(TAM)。这些已经供不应求。因此，当 2027-2028 年到来时，我们可能会看到另一场类似内存的短缺……鉴于你的前三名未来两年已售罄，且像 $AAOI 这样的独立激光产能上线后正被内部用于光模块而非出售。
英文原文
@OnurKocerr No, EML, CW, microLEDs are all parallel tracks, with silicon phonetics + CW being the main commercial focus for 2027-2028, especially for CPO. If anything, having memory/optical links adds another material TAM increase across laser suppliers including CW DFBs. Which are already in short supply. So we'll likely see another memory style shortage when 2027-2028 comes about... Given your top 3 are already sold out for next 2 years, and independent laser capacity coming online like $AAOI are now being used internally for transceivers rather than being sold.
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推测SK海力士CPO供应链涉及Ayar/Celestial及上游SIVE等。
既然大家都在愉快地猜测 $SKHY 共封装光学(CPO) 路线图供应链。 我来猜一下：SK 海力士正在评估 Celestial/Ayar。随后将重点评估第一代部署后的 microLEDs（微发光二极管）。 这两家公司其实已经在这方面工作了一段时间。 - Ayar 出现在 SK 海力士官网上，语境是光 <-> 内存链接。 - Marvell 正积极与 SK 海力士合作定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁拥有 Celestial）。 Celestial/Ayar 也被 SK 海力士链接的 Nature 论文引用，这在技术相关性上提供了一些佐证： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up... 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光 I/O 芯片组），顺便提一下 Stojanovic 是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳，Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想保持篇幅简短。 关于更多上游受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最清晰的受益标的，因为他们很可能同时供应给 Celestial/Ayar。 中介层/封装 IP 层... 人们曾猜测 $POET，但 Marvell 可能在宣布后今年就通过垂直整合将他们淘汰了。 鉴于他们在 Celestial 被收购前就拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如 2023 年展示过硅光中介层） -> AMS Osram（我不持有），看起来他们正在这一领域共同开发，因为他们今年特意指出 HBM <-> 光学对他们来说是一个 TAM（总可服务市场）增长点。 TLDR：我认为 Ayar/Celestial 是 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLEDs 可能在 2029 年左右实现第一代后的商业化。（这纯属猜测） 顺便给量子点粉丝一点甜头，这篇论文引用了它 5 次。
英文原文
Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.
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光模块需求极高且供应链严重短缺，认为板块跑输荒谬，看好行业前景。
非常积极。我的观点是，近期光模块板块从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE 的跑输表现简直荒谬。 需求可见性……简直高得愚蠢。 AOI：“即使合并 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目，未来三年（至2029年）仍很难满足客户需求。” Elazr 总经理：“整个光供应链正面临严重短缺。”“短缺将持续到未来几年。” Sivers CEO 对磷化铟(InP)激光器需求失衡的说法相同，预计未来3-5年持续。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他评论可以列举更多。 我们甚至还没触及 1.6T、NPO、共封装光学(CPO)规模化以及光存一体（如 SK Hynix 所示）的拐点。 然而行业已受限于 EML/CW 及 PD/TIA/DSP、收发器等上游组件，随着 CPO 规模化，FAU 等也将成为瓶颈…… 我个人对这一切的发展感到极度舒适，只是有点困惑市场为何不会算未来一两年的账。
英文原文
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
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博主坚持年初选定的主题持仓，拒绝频繁换股，静待局势明朗。
@EnamelEquity 不，我所有的主题篮子(Thematic Baskets)都是今年早些时候选定的，包括像 $EWY 这样的存储(Storage)和像 $SIVE 这样的共封装光学(CPO)。 最近唯一的一次操作是涉及人形机器人(Humanoids)的 $CCXI，但那只是单次交易。 我只是在等待一切局势明朗，我不喜欢频繁换股(Jumping ship to ship)。
英文原文
@EnamelEquity Nope, all my thematic baskets were picked earlier this year with memory like $EWY and CPO like $SIVE. Only recent was kinda humanoids with $CCXI, but that's one-off. I'm just waiting for everything to play out, not a fan of jumping ship to ship.
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AI资金回流高流动性板块，半导体供应链多处出现涨价与瓶颈。
我很高兴杠杆交易者们从AI股票撤出，转回高流动性板块和生物科技（如$MRNA），这样我们或许能更快看到复苏。 除此之外，一些要点摘要： - $EWY上涨，主要得益于SK海力士的回购（他们利润太丰厚了），以及三星晶圆代工约10-15%的涨价。 - $SKHY发布共封装光学(CPO)路线图？看来他们在做光子中介层与内存连接的技术，我得深入看看。 这可能会带来更大的潜在市场(TAM)扩张，以及更多供应链受益者（如激光器、光子集成电路(PICs)、封装）。 - $YMTC继长鑫存储(CMXT)成功IPO后，计划下季度寻求IPO。 中国IPO市场正从宇树科技到内存制造商全面爆发。 美国应该采取类似做法，而不是让公司在万亿估值时IPO。 - Tyntek涨停，鉴于光子领域光电二极管需求失衡，其订单可见度已至2028年。 Elazr总经理曾表示整个光学供应链面临严重短缺……我接下来可能会更关注高端光电二极管瓶颈。 - 摩根士丹利预测DDR4在Q3环比涨价50%，2026年Q4涨价10%+。（南亚/2408，旺宏/2344应该很高兴）。 - 据报道，中国推迟对台湾出口锗、石英基材料和钕磁铁的许可。 所以我可能会一边吃杯面一边研究那里的供应链中断问题。 - 高端PCB钻头短缺（仍在持续），凯美(5498)称AI数据中心、服务器和光通信正在推动PCB、HDI和封装基板的需求，同时钨价上涨。 尽管全球五大钻头制造商正在积极扩产，供应仍远低于整体市场需求。 只是最近发现的一些有趣内容，当然$MRNA的事也挺有意思。
英文原文
I'm glad the leverage bros moved from AI stocks back to Hyerliquid and biotech like $MRNA, so maybe we'll see a faster recovery. Aside from that just some TLDR stuff: - $EWY up, primarily from SK Hynix buybacks (they're just too profitable), and Samsung Foundry roughly ~10-15% price hikes. - $SKHY unveils CPO roadmap?? Apparently they're doing something with photonic interposer that links to memory, so I gotta look a bit deeper into this Probably going to be more TAM expansion, more supply chain beneficiaries (eg. lasers, PICs, packaging) off this. - $YMTC pursuing IPO next quarter following CMXT's successful IPO. The Chinese IPO market is just going brrr from Unitree to memory makers. US needs to do something similar rather than IPOing companies at trillion dollar valuations already. - Tyntek limit up there's now order visibility through 2028, given photodiode demand imbalance for photonics. Elazr GM did say the entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages... I'll probably look more at high-end PD bottlenecks next. - MS forecasts a 50% Q/Q price increase for DDR4 for Q3, and 10%+ increase for Q4 2026. (Nanya/2408, Windbond/2344, should be happy). - China reportedly delays clearance from germanium, quartz-based materials, and neodymium magnets To taiwan. So I'll probably have some fun looking into supply chains disruptions there over cup noodles. - High-end PCB drill shortage (still ongoing), Kawei (5498) said AI DCs, servers and optical communications are driving demand for PCBs, HDI and package substrates, while tungsten prices are rising. Though the world's five largest drill manufacturers are aggressively expanding capacity, supply remains far below overall market demand Just stuff I found interesting recently, obviously $MRNA stuff is too.