$JBL
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给出1.6T可插拔与NVLink CPO生态放量时间线。
2027年上半年，是所有 1.6T 可插拔玩家，比如 $JBL。 也许 Innolight/Eoptolink 和其他可插拔玩家也会加入。很快会知道，因为 $SIVE 说他们正在与一些未披露的可插拔玩家合作。 2027年下半年，则是 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态里 Ayar 等玩家的主要 CPO 放量应用。 市场通常会提前约8个月前瞻定价。
英文原文
H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar. Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.
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看好SIVE作为AAOI之后最喜欢的CPO/光子学股票。
$SIVE 是我在 AAOI 之后最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，那边还有很多“喜剧演员”提供娱乐。 今天一家新的非技术型对冲基金 Protean Funds（可能在做空）上节目，说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是想象出来的。 这刚好发生在 $GFS 把 $SIVE 设为其参考激光器之后。 给新读者一点背景：瑞典很多人只会看过去12个月收入，不理解前瞻增长概念。 他们也不理解，目前根本还没有任何 CPO 应用真正大规模放量。 所以瑞典对冲基金持续做空，像 Colosseum / Origo 这类基金已经严重亏损。 但对技术读者来说，从2026年下半年到2028年，这个市场会在一年半内从接近0增长到910亿美元 TAM（我们正进入下半年）。 整体 TAM 会达到1410亿美元，也是在一年半内增长10倍以上，而 $SIVE 还通过 $JBL 和其他未披露可插拔玩家切入了可插拔市场。 在 $SIVE 史上最大拐点到来前做空，对瑞典本地机构来说大概率不会有好结果。 放量只是时间问题。
英文原文
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
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称AAOI是当前最喜欢的美国多头并提到JBL/SIVE 1.6T机会。
回复 @DanyloAkymenko：$AAOI 是我目前最喜欢的美国多头。 我个人最近在它跌到150美元，甚至170美元时都会加仓摊高成本。 我认为一旦 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 一起量产，$JBL 应该会表现很好。今天也谈到了 $RDDT。 如果你认为 $MRVL 能到1万亿美元……
英文原文
@DanyloAkymenko $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T
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讨论CHIPS法案资助公司被并购较难，参股或是路径。
回复 @MikeBaumgart1：大型公司很难一时兴起就收购像 $SIVE 这种获得 CHIPS Act 资金支持的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种和政府有关联的公司。 很多企业创投部门有时也会错过。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路径。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会入股 $SIVE。
英文原文
@MikeBaumgart1 It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE
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认为SIVE空头可能加仓，但会随更多公告被击垮。
回复 @Jayden11129225：可能有活跃空头正在加倍做空 $SIVE。我预计他们随着时间会被打爆。 尤其是在更多公告出来后。 如果再有一个类似 $JBL 的惊喜公告，比如和 Innolight 这样的人合作，会很有意思。 因为 Sivers 正在共同开发/认证……
英文原文
@Jayden11129225 There's active short sellers probably doubling down on $SIVE. I'd expect them to get wrecked over time. Especially on more announcements. One more surprise $JBL type announcement with someone like Innolight would be interesting. Since Sivers is co-developing/qualifying with
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称GFS新闻比SIVE+JBL更根本，因为默认嵌入参考设计。
回复 @wangxindian @StormDirac：我不确定人们是否已经意识到这条 $GFS 新闻对 $SIVE 的重大意义。 它在基本面上可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更具开创性。 因为 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA 或任何通过 GFS 硅光子的公司，都会默认把 $SIVE 嵌入参考设计。
英文原文
@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.
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SIVE作为光子学激光瓶颈，获GFS/JBL等公开验证。
-> IP 收购 -> 只是等待 CPO 起飞 $SIVE 是光子学的激光瓶颈，并已被公开验证： - $GFS（根据演示，是 CPO 两家公开激光供应商之一，另一家是 $LITE） - $JBL（与 Sivers 构建的可插拔产品拥有“相当显著的护城河”） -
英文原文
-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) -
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称若SIVE跌回低位会考虑发基金买下，因JBL放量和更多客户在路上。
回复 @Path21Mil：如果 $SIVE 真跌到那些水平，我可能会考虑发一个基金直接把它买下来，哈哈。 考虑到 $JBL 可插拔放量和更多光收发器客户正在推进，我不认为它还能再回到那里。 也不确定他们是在为谁分析，瑞典人不……
英文原文
@Path21Mil I’d probably consider launching a fund to just buy out $SIVE if it reached those levels lol. Don’t think it’s possible to go there again, given $JBL pluggable ramp and more optical transceiver customers underway. Also not sure who they’re analyzing for, Swedish folks don’t
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复盘市场对SIVE从怀疑客户到怀疑执行再到份额的阶段性误解。
> 市场从怀疑 $SIVE 的客户（1.5亿美元市值）开始 结果这些客户很可能是 $JBL、Ayar、$AAPL、国防主承包商、$MRVL Celestial 等公司。 > 到怀疑其执行能力（6亿美元市值） 结果如果走 Win Semi 路线，就可以跳过资本开支。 > 再到怀疑它能拿到多少份额……
英文原文
> markets went from doubting $SIVE customers ($150m MC) Turns out it’s likely companies eg. $JBL, Ayar, $AAPL, Defense Primes, $MRVL celestial. > to doubting their execution ($600m mc) Turns out you skip the capex if you go with Win Semi > to doubting what share they get vs
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JBL证明SIVE作为1.6T LRO唯一激光供应商需求强劲。
回复 @halldj00：你已经有 $JBL 这个例子，确认了过量需求，并且 $SIVE 预计是其 1.6T LRO 的唯一激光供应商。 我对此并不担心。更多是看 Jabil 或 Ayar，然后看到一旦它们放量，规模如何回流到 Sivers。 而且我会……
英文原文
@halldj00 You already have $JBL as one example, confirming excessive demand with $SIVE expected sole source laser provider for their 1.6T LRO. Don’t really have concerns there. It’s more about looking Jabil or Ayar, then seeing that scale flow back to Sivers once those ramps. And I’d
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JBL收购部分英特尔光收发器业务，使其能与SIVE合作。
回复 @onlyonexhj：$JBL 收购了 $INTC 光收发器部门的一部分，这就是他们能和 $SIVE 做现在这些事情的方式。
英文原文
@onlyonexhj $JBL acquired part of $INTC optical transceiver division, which is how they’re able to do what they’re doing with $SIVE.
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SIVE财报电话会看多：JBL合作带来更多光收发器请求。
我花了更多时间看 $SIVE 财报电话会记录，非常看多： - $JBL 可插拔合作为 $SIVE 带来了更多光收发器请求。 所以我猜也许是 Innolight/Eoptolink 和其他大玩家。 - 在 Win Semi 之外还有更多激光产能……
英文原文
Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. - More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more https://t.co/ZaptyNiSv1
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极度看多SIVE，因前瞻增长77%、JBL放量确认和多个量产启动。
回复 @DeJeff48985：极度看多 $SIVE。 我对自己持有名字的财报一向非常直白诚实。 我们从整个公司管线中看到了单季度77%的前瞻增长信号。 $JBL 放量确认。 然后还有多个量产爬坡开始……
英文原文
@DeJeff48985 Extremely bullish on $SIVE. I’m very brutally honest when it comes to earnings reports on the names I own. We got 77% forward growth indications from the entire company’s pipelines… over a single quarter. $JBL ramp confirmation. Then multiple volume ramp production starts
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等待电话会记录，但JBL放量和光子学主增长向量已验证论点。
回复 @dockery58：谢谢，我还在等电话会记录出来。 但很高兴他们澄清了 $JBL 放量即将到来，以及光子学是他们的主要增长向量。 到目前为止，这是很好的论点验证。
英文原文
@dockery58 Thanks, I’m still waiting on the transcript to come out. But glad they clarified $JBL volume ramp is coming and photonics is their main growth vector. Great thesis validation so far.
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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JBL称1.6T LRO三到十个月内量产且需求过量，SIVE可能是唯一激光供应商。
$JBL 在炉边谈话中直接宣布…… 其 1.6T LRO 将在3-10个月内量产，并且需求过量。 $SIVE 很可能是这一特定光收发器的唯一激光供应商。 Ayar 最近融资5亿美元用于放量，而 $SIVE 是主要/……
英文原文
$JBL literally announced in their fireside chat… Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months. $SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver. Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / https://t.co/e9zTspSgFk
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用私有CPO玩家估值论证SIVE作为上游激光瓶颈应获得更高估值。
给试图做 $SIVE 估值分析的人： Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 今天大概估值约40亿到150亿美元以上。 Sivers 市值约26亿美元，而且很可能是它们所有人的上游激光供应商。 我甚至还没把 Poet、TFLN 相关的 Hyperlight/Lightium，或 Jabil 和其他未披露可插拔玩家纳入估值分析。 也没包括 CHIPS Act 合同、Apple/Nokia 关系，或 Aeva 等人形/物理 AI 业务。 散户对私募市场不太熟悉……但这些公司都被视为前沿 CPO 玩家，并且估值和规模都在迅速增长。 所以我预计 $SIVE 应该获得类似甚至更高估值，因为它有激光瓶颈溢价。尤其是在它通过并购扩展 TAM 和收入之后。 下个月 BlackRock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ 新资金流入会随时间缩小差距。 但 NASDAQ 上市可能才是真正给 Sivers 溢价的因素。
英文原文
For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis. Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships. Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others. Retail aren't as familiar with private markets... But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly. So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue. New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time. But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.
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称不会卖SIVE，认为是代际级多头，受益于客户、TAM、Ayar护城河、CHIPS和指数流入。
我一股 $SIVE 都不会卖。 我个人认为这是代际级多头，因为它已经进入了这么多超大云厂商供应商体系。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔和 CPO 的极端 TAM 扩张预测。 如果你到现在还没读 $JBL 炉边谈话记录，它已经验证了需求和时间线；或者 Ayar 从网站上移除 Lumentum 和 Macom 作为激光供应商，验证了护城河；或者 CHIPS Act 资金验证了技术重要性；或者管理层在我看来字面上做对了所有事情，通过 NASDAQ 上市转向并购重点，验证前瞻增长愿景。 当前估值下，上行太有吸引力。 机构也几乎还没进入……而下个月我们将看到来自 Nasdaq、BlackRock、MSCI 指数的数千万美元长期被动新资金流入。
英文原文
I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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比较AAOI与SIVE：前者制造规模，后者独特IP和CPO供应商渗透。
$AAOI 更偏纯制造规模，我极度看多它们。 所以在我看来，它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此对收入爬坡极其看多。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要 CPO 超大云供应商似乎都使用它们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。 甚至 $JBL 也用 Sivers 做出突破性的 1.6T LRO 护城河。 Sivers 的上限很高，未来也总能像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样用资本开支做垂直整合。 但它们当前主要重点应该是创造尽可能大的 IP 护城河，并把制造外包以保持轻资本。 以后也总能垂直整合组装和激光晶圆厂。 我喜欢它们两个，但原因不同。
英文原文
$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.
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阐述SIVE如何成为下一个800亿美元LITE：CPO/1.6T激光kingmaker并通过并购扩展TAM。
为了让 $SIVE 成为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE： Sivers 是当前 CPO 和 1.6T 光学转型中的激光 kingmaker。 它们基本上向 CPO 领域的领先玩家供应激光。 从可能的 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他 CPO 玩家开始，在这些公司变大之前就合作。 现在又有 $JBL 这样的1.6T LRO 大玩家，以及更多可插拔产品测试/认证正在进行。 它们终于解决了 Catch-22 问题，并获得市场关注，可以在 NASDAQ 上市后（或现在通过股权）完成基础性 CPO 相关 IP 的下游收购。 并尽可能从激光源向以下方向扩展收入： -> 光引擎/ELS 价值。 -> 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 用2年从20亿美元到800亿美元估值一样。 但不同的是，Sivers 正在 CPO 超级周期中做这件事，这是光子学史上最快的 TAM 扩张。 我关注的是它们能否完成这种大卫对歌利亚式的转变，追赶 $LITE。 这比当前发生的小市值百分比回报更让我在意。
英文原文
For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.
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讽刺瑞典本地人忽视SIVE前瞻增长、做空并最终把控制权交给美国。
Serenity 教你如何成为真正的瑞典本地人： 1. 看到 $SIVE 这家皇冠明珠光子学公司？ 2. 因2024年收入数字生气，忽视前瞻增长。 3. 在 CPO 超级周期之前，在底部鼓励所有人把控制权转给美国。 4. 因股价继续上涨而生气。 5. 让本地对冲基金在上涨途中做空17%以上自由流通股。 6. 它们基金亏损20%以上，并面临无限损失。 7. 突然意识到美国现在通过 MSCI 纳入/NASDAQ 上市即将主导所有权。 8. 但看到 Jabil 将在2027年上半年与 $SIVE 为超大云厂商量产1.6T LRO 的新消息？ 9. 不改变想法：继续关注2024年收入数字和本地会计办公室，而高管在美国。 10. 成为 X 上的梗。
英文原文
A guide by Serenity on becoming a true Swedish local: 1. See crown jewel photonics company in $SIVE? 2. Get angry about 2024 revenue numbers, ignoring forward growth. 3. Encourage everyone to transfer control to America at the bottom, before the CPO supercycle 4. Be angry that the stock keeps rising 5. Have local hedge funds short 17%+ of free float on way up 6. Their funds loses 20%+ of value, and faces infinite losses 7. Face sudden realization America now dominates ownership with MSCI inclusion / NASDAQ listing coming up. 8. But see new news Jabil mass producing 1.6T LRO for hyperscalers with $SIVE H1 2027? 9. Don’t change your mind: keep focusing on 2024 revenue numbers and local accounting offices while executives are in America. 10. Become a meme on X.
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希望SIVE成为下一个LITE，而不是被MRVL/JBL收购。
回复 @osilayer8：不是，我是在为 $SIVE 成为下一个 $LITE 加油。 我建仓不是为了让 Sivers 被 $MRVL 或 $JBL 收购。 考虑到光子学需求，我也真的不认为 NASDAQ 上市后的融资会成为问题。 只是等待游戏。
英文原文
@osilayer8 Nah, I'm cheering on $SIVE to become the next $LITE. I didn't acquire positions just for Sivers to be bought out by $MRVL or $JBL. I also really don't think fundraising is going to be a problem on NASDAQ listing given photonics demand. Just a waiting game.
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SIVE空头面临MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、财报、新客户、JBL需求和M&A多重不确定性。
这可能是因为空头面临极端不确定风险。 > MSCI 纳入将在一两周内为 $SIVE 触发数千万美元新流入。 > NASDAQ 上市可能随时发生。 > 财报催化，带来新的可插拔合作伙伴。 > 今天关于 $JBL 使用 $SIVE 的 1.6T LRO 极端需求新闻。 > 现在还有更多并购相关事项，可能突然增加收入数字。 借券费率飙升对长期持有人更好，因为它让持有空头仓位更痛苦，尤其是在空头占17%以上流通盘时。
英文原文
It's probably due to extreme uncertainty risk for short sellers. > Since MSCI listing triggers tens of millions of new inflow for $SIVE in a week or two. > NASDAQ listing could be anytime > Earnings catalysts, with new pluggable partners > News about $JBL extreme demand for 1.6T LRO using $SIVE today > and now more M&A related stuff that can suddenly increase revenue numbers Spiking short rates is better for long term holders, since it makes it more painful to have short positions, especially when it's 17%+ of the float.
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认为SIVE可能是JBL特定1.6T LRO唯一供应商，因架构独特。
回复 @ShakespeareDad：鉴于架构独特性，$SIVE 很可能是 $JBL 这款特定 1.6T LRO 的唯一来源。 它不是标准 CW 激光器。
英文原文
@ShakespeareDad $SIVE is likely sole source for this specific 1.6T LRO from $JBL given the architectural uniqueness. It’s not a standard cw laser.
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JPM炉边会显示JBL 1.6T LRO量产早于预期，SIVE激光架构形成护城河且需求近乎无上限。
$SIVE 与 $JBL 的 1.6T 光收发器量产： 根据 JPMorgan 炉边谈话，现在比预期更早。 他们宣布的内容： > $SIVE 激光架构暗示“相当显著的护城河”。 > 其 1.6T 存在极端需求，此前市场并不知道具体量级。 > 时间线快于预期，将收入实现窗口提前。 声明内容： 1. Jabil 的 1.6T LRO “将在未来1到4个月进入不同认证”。 “认证可能需要2到6个月。” 考虑到现在是2026年上半年5月，量产和收入实现可能在3到10个月内开始。 以6.5个月中点看，就是2026年底。 很多此前估计是2027年下半年。 3. 架构上，它“比当前1.6T 功耗曲线低约11千瓦”。 超大云厂商会喜欢听到这个，而这就是通过 $SIVE 作为关键光子学 chokepoint 证明的竞争差异化和相当显著护城河。 4. “在这一点上，不是份额问题。真正的问题是跟上整个市场的自然增长。” 这再次显示巨大需求已经超过供应。 含义是，关键变成 Sivers + Jabil 能一起生产多少，因为它们生产的任何东西都会被买走。 这种表述对 Sivers 相对于当前市值的收入极其重要。 市场此前不确定 Sivers x Jabil 的确切需求量和商业时间线。 Jabil 刚刚公开确认，使用 $SIVE 激光的 1.6T LRO 需求本质上没有上限。
英文原文
$SIVE mass production for 1.6T optical transceivers with $JBL: Is now earlier than expected per JP Morgan Fireside chat. Here's what they announced: > "Relatively dramatic moat" implied with $SIVE laser architectures > Extreme demand for their 1.6T, which was previously unknown in terms of volume. > Faster than expected timelines, pulling revenue realization window forward. The statement: 1. Jabil’s 1.6T LRO: "Goes into different qualifications across the next 1 to 4 months" “The quals can take anywhere between 2 to 6 months" Given its May H1 2026, mass production and revenue realization could begin in anywhere between 3 months to 10 months. So late 2026 with 6.5 month midpoint. Lot of former estimates were H2 2027. 3. Architecturally it's "which is about 11 kilowatts dramatically lower than current 1.6T power profiles" Hyperscalers would like to hear this, and this is the competitive differentiation + relatively dramatic moat proven with $SIVE as the critical photonics chokepoint. 4. "At this point, it's not about share. It's really about keeping up with the organic growth of the entire market." Again this shows that the enormous demand has outstripped supply. The implications are that it’s more of a matter of how much Sivers + Jabil can build together, as anything they make would be bought. This type of statement is just incredibly material for Sivers revenue relative to their current marketcap. The market was previously uncertain about the exact volume demand and commercial timeline from Sivers X Jabil. Jabil just publicly confirmed that the demand for their 1.6T LRO with $SIVE lasers is essentially uncapped.
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SIVE空头比例或超17%，将面对MSCI流入、NASDAQ上市、CHIPS支持和多客户收入驱动。
先放在这里： $SIVE 空头权益现在可能高于17%+。 因为很多瑞典本地对冲基金做空 Sivers 已经深度亏损。 它们即将通过以下方式遇到美国机构： > 2周内 MSCI 资金流入。 > NASDAQ 上市。 > 美国 CHIPS Act 托底。 同时还有来自光学超级周期的核心收入驱动：未来一两年可能来自 $AAPL、$JBL、$POET、Ayar、Onet/Enablence、Lightium、$AEVA、$MRVL、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 和 $AMD。 我个人不认为在这么早期做空的瑞典本地人（以及一些随机算法）会有好结果。 流行说法是，每一股空头最终都会变成长多。
英文原文
Just putting it out there: $SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now. As lot of local Swedish hedge funds are very underwater, shorting Sivers. They're about to meet US institutions through: > MSCI inflow in 2 weeks. > NASDAQ Listing. > US CHIPS Act backstop. alongside core revenue driver from the optical supercycle revenue ramp from likely $AAPL, $JBL, $POET, Ayar, Onet/Enablence, Lightium, $AEVA, $MRVL, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and $AMD over the next year or two. I personally don't think it's going to end well for the Swedish locals shorting (and some random algos) at this early stage. And the popular saying is every one stock short turns into a long eventually.
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强调前瞻跟踪比看 13F 更有用
我不太明白为什么大家要把 13F 文件看得那么深，而很多对冲基金在像 $JBL、$LITE 这些名字上都已经慢半拍了。 最好的收益来自在机构意识到下一个 $SNDK 之前就先买进去。 不是等他们在 3 个月后披露完再跟。
英文原文
I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $JBL, $LITE and others. The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $SNDK. Not following them 3 months after they file.
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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把总统的持仓风格比作 FinX 网红
为什么我们总统的股票交易风格像个 FinX 网红……一路做多半导体供应链，从 $JBL 到 $AMAT？ 看起来更像是一只自制 ETF，而不是在挑单只 long。 如果他也买 $CRBS，我完全不会意外，哈哈。 如果你好奇，这里是前 100 个多头仓位。
英文原文
Why is our president stock trading like a FinX influencer... Going long on semi supply chains like $JBL to $AMAT? Looks more like a self-made ETF rather than picking individual longs tbh. Not surprised if he picks up $CRBS too lol. Here were the top 100 long positions if you were curious.
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评论CPO供应链分析文章，指出Sivers与多家光互联芯片公司存在映射关系。
很有意思的阅读！觉得你覆盖了关于整体CPO增长曲线的大部分重要观点，写了一个很好的牛市案例。 特别是关于$SIVE如何服务于Ayar、$JBL和$POET，并通过与Win合作采用资本支出轻量的晶圆厂轻资产模式实现规模化。 实际上还有大量与$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、Lightmatter以及其他参与者的供应链映射关系，以及$AAPL等用于相邻SiPH垂直领域的玩家。 但不包括更多尚未100%确认的参与者是合理的。不过O-Net/enablence ELS面向亚洲超大规模业者这一点已得到确认（文章中没有看到这一点）。 但这也说明了Sivers映射到的玩家数量众多。
英文原文
Fun read! Think you covered majority of the important points regarding the overall CPO growth curve and wrote a great bull case. Especially how $SIVE feeds into Ayar, $JBL, and $POET + scales using capex light fab-lite model with Win. There's actually a ton of supply chain mapping with $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, Lightmatter, and others of players like $AAPL for adjacent SiPH verticals. But makes sense not to include more not 100% confirmed players. O-Net/enablence ELS for Asian hyperscalers was confirmed though (didnt see that there) But just goes to show many players Sivers maps to.
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认为 SIVE 的光学侧信息全都很牛
我的意思是，$SIVE 光学侧给出的信息几乎全是我想听到的？ -> H2 开始放量 -> TAM 扩展到 pluggable transceivers -> 除了 $JBL 之外，还有多家新的潜在 hyperscaler 供应商在测试/认证他们的激光器，用于 pluggable。 -> Win Semi 产能已经锁定。
英文原文
I mean $SIVE delivered everything I wanted to hear on their optical side? -> Volume ramp starting H2 -> TAM expansion into pluggable transceivers -> Multiple new likely hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualifying their lasers for pluggable aside from $JBL. -> Win Semi capacity secured.
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$SIVE 年报显示 CPO 与 pluggable 双线扩张
$SIVE 2025 年报分析。 TLDR：非常看多。 Sivers 的主增长向量是 CPO，但他们已经把 TAM 扩展到 pluggable transceivers，以及多项新的 qualification / development。 1. “We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers” 从 pluggable 角度看，我们已经在 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 上看到类似情况，而年报暗示他们还在和更多 hyperscaler 供应商开发 / 认证。 “Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged” （TAM 扩张） 2. “Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years” $LITE 已经提示过 CW laser 的瓶颈，他们甚至不得不外购竞品。我们之前其实就猜到 CW laser 会是瓶颈。 而这次年报确认了这一点，所以我也在看 Win Semi。 “The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand” $SIVE 很可能已经通过 Win 锁定了产能，这正是我最想确认的。 这把 Sivers 放在了 CW laser 既是瓶颈又是 CPO 激光架构领导者的位置。 H2 量产信号（看多）： 3. “The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026” H1 更偏 preproduction，H2 才是量产启动，像 $POET 那样。 4. “We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026” $AEVA 在 2026 年 Q4 开始量产，对 $SIVE 也是利好。 LIDAR 提供了 revenue floor，而他们的 CPO 正在放量。 5. Sivers 还宣布和 LIGHTIUM AG 合作，把 CW laser 直接整合到 TFLN wafers 上。3.2T+ 周期，属于未来防守。 顺带说一下，去年 2025 的财报本身，除了瑞典本地媒体/散户外，真没几个像样的投资者会在意。 尤其当你看的是 2027-2028 的 CPO 超级周期时。 但从财报和地理布局里你能提取到的一个高置信客户信号是：$NOK 现在已经是 $SIVE 的高置信客户。 TLDR： -> Win Semi 暗示在 CW laser 瓶颈下锁定了产能 -> 新一批 hyperscaler 供应商在测试/认证 pluggable transceivers，TAM 巨大扩张 -> 新的 CW laser 客户 -> photonics 和 lidar 都在 H2 开始量产爬坡。
英文原文
$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis. TLDR: Extremely Bullish. Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development. 1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers" For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers. "Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion) 2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years" $LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck. And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi. "The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand" $SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know. This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader. VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH): 3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026" H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET. 4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026" $AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both. Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales. 5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing) FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals. Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle. But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE. TLDR: -> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck -> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion. -> New customers for CW lasers -> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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估计 CPO scale up 在 2027 下半年
大概 H2 2027 才是 CPO scale up，那是最大的市场机会。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月开始定价。 CPO scale out 会在今年下半年开始。1.6T pluggable bridge 大概在 2027 上半年到下半年之间发生（$SIVE 和 $JBL 有一个相关链条）。 所以在 2027 年后半段的大超级周期之前，会先有逐步的量产爬坡。
英文原文
Probably H2 2027 for scale up CPO, which is the biggest market opportunity. Markets usually start pricing things in 8-12 months in advance. CPO scale out is H2 this year. 1.6T pluggable bridge happens around H1-H2 2027 (Sivers has one with $JBL) So there's incremental volume ramp leading to the major supercycle later part of 2027.
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SIVE激光器供应商客户覆盖多家AI/硅光子明星企业，估值对应的超大规模客户量惊人
$SIVE 向以下公司供应激光器：可能是 $JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、$POET、$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、$AMD、O-Net/Enablence 以及其他公司。 这还不包括他们与 $AAPL 或 $AEVA 的硅光子(silicon photonics)项目，或者他们其他与CHIPS法案相关的工作。 以这个估值来看，他们所服务的超大规模企业(hyperscaler)数量相当惊人。
英文原文
$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.
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解释为什么 SIVE 总被瑞典媒体打压，但浮筹仍在转移
SIVE 每天都在重复上演这种剧情，已经像 deja vu 了，哈哈。 这也说明为什么 Sivers 很快会在纳斯达克上市，而不是继续留在本地市场。 每天开盘本地媒体都会来一篇攻击这家前沿公司的文章，然后股价跌 10%： -> “CPO 和 CW lasers 没什么新东西” -> “Sivers 要去跟资金雄厚的 $LITE 和 $COHR 竞争，肯定会因为资本劣势输掉” -> “为了上纳斯达克不得不稀释 2.5%” -> “年报延迟很可疑”（其实是为了上纳斯达克） -> $SIVE 体量不够，无法放大和 $JBL 的关系并扩张。 最后本地瑞典人都在卖，西方投资者 / 基金在接手流通股。 在 CPO 量产前就让西方持有这家公司，显然更好。 纯靠瑞典本地去做一家前沿公司，感觉希望很渺茫，因为本地文化就不太行。
英文原文
Every day it's like this on repeat with $SIVE, it's like dejavu lol. Makes sense why Sivers is getting listed on Nasdaq soon instead of staying in local markets. New local hit piece on their own frontier company happens every market open, stock drops 10%: -> "CPO and the CW lasers is nothing new" -> "Sivers is going up against well funded $LITE and $COHR and will lose because of capital" -> "They had to dilute 2.5% to get listed on Nasdaq" -> "Delayed annual report is sketchy" (to get listed on Nasdaq) -> $SIVE is not big enough to capitalize on $JBL relationship and scale. Local Swedish folks end up selling. Western investors/funds end up acquiring the float. Better for the West to own the company before CPO ramp starts. Creating a frontier company purely from Sweden seems hopeless given local culture.
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继续讽刺瑞典媒体对 SIVE 的恶意报道
我还在笑瑞典人有多讨厌自己的前沿公司。 他们天天给 $SIVE 写打压文章。 这篇就很有娱乐性：本地记者未经邀请就跑去一栋空着的 $SIVE 行政楼前。 因为他们无法理解 CEO 其实在硅谷，或者设计团队正在美国做 CHIPS Act 相关开发。再加上楼外面没停多少车，以及 CFO 不愿回答关于保密 hyperscaler 合同财务细节的问题。 于是他们又写了一篇莫名其妙的负面稿。 还反复写“做这种激光的公司不止一个，Sivers 远不是唯一一家”。 比如 $LITE、$COHR 这些 600 亿美元以上的公司。 又写早前那种“CPO 没什么特别，很多年都有了”的说法。 而 GS 的预测却是 CPO 在未来两年从 10 亿美元 TAM 增长到 910 亿美元。 他们甚至还把“Plans”写成引号，好像不相信 Sivers 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供激光。 我认为 $SIVE 明年会变成一家 100 亿美元以上的公司，尤其如果他们像 $LITE / $COHR 那样把下游 IP 集成起来，多吃一点 CPO 模块 BOM。 他们根本不懂 hyperscaler 供应链、前瞻成长，以及员工数量不等于收入这件事。 当地瑞典持股向西方转移，这件事其实一直是好事，因为它曾经是一家由本地散户主导的公司。
英文原文
I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much. That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE. This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited. Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials. They wrote a random negative hit piece. By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone". Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies. and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years." While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years. Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO. IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM. Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue. Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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认为SIVE估值被低估，重点关注管理层对CPO激光产量爬坡指引。
我个人认为 $SIVE 今天应该值 $30亿，明年最终会达到 $100亿以上。 财报其实不重要。我只关心管理层关于激光产量爬坡的指示，用于两个共封装光学(CPO)项目（$JBL 和可能的 $AAPL 硅光子学项目）。
英文原文
@TheGreekEuler I personally think $SIVE should be $3B today and ends up $10B+ next year. Earnings don’t really matter. Just care about indication from management about laser volume ramp for both CPO programs / $JBL and likely $AAPL silicon photonics program.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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1.4 亿市值对激光供应链太小
@TVAFR786 14 亿美元市值算小吗？ 尤其如果他们的激光器很可能服务于 $AMD CPO、$MRVL CPO、$JBL 1.6T LRO、$AAPL 硅光、Ayar（AlChip）、Lightmatter、O-Net 终端客户（亚洲超大规模云厂商）以及其他项目。
英文原文
@TVAFR786 $1.4B MC is tiny? Especially if their lasers likely power $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T LRO, $AAPL Silicon Photonics, Ayar (AlChip), Lightmatter, O-Net End users (Asian Hyperscalers), and others.
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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日本散户持仓是好信号
我很高兴日本社区在研究之后开始建 $SIVE 仓位！ 更强的国际股东基础总是正面的。 至于我的一些看法，市场现在看起来像这样： 1. $NVDA 把 $LITE / $COHR 的分配额度买走了 2. $AMD 的 CPO 走的是 $GFS + $SIVE / Win，剩下的激光供应可能会给 $LITE，如果还有分配的话。 3. 还有……$MRVL 的 CPO 不管怎样都需要激光器。 $SIVE 看起来是最后几家纯 merchant laser 供应商之一。 所以 Marvell 大概率会直接用 $SIVE（本来就符合 Celestial 规格），后面再多来源（也许是 $MTSI）。之后他们再把进入 Celestial 的中介封装 IP 垂直整合掉。 支持这个判断的有一些有意思的点： -> Ayar 把 $MTSI 和 $LITE 从官网上删掉了，改用了 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。Ayar 和 AlChip/GUC 等都有连接。 -> 如果看 $GFS 的幻灯片，在 $AMD 把 CPO 项目交给 GlobalFoundries 之后，只剩下 $SIVE 和 $LITE 两家公众公司。 -> $SIVE 很可能从去年开始就和 Win 有激光产能爬坡协议。 $NVDA 很可能还没把这些激光产能完全分配完，所以像 $JBL、$AMD 以及其他公司会把溢出订单给 Sivers。 因为 $LITE 已经暗示 2028 年的产能基本满了。 我可能也有错，但基于公开信息来看，情况就是这样。 至于为什么我认为它是个好长线： -> Sivers 基本上过去没怎么暴露在 800G 或更早的代际里。 -> 欧洲市场按过去 12 个月营收定价……所以之前估值一直被压得很低。 -> 它们拿到了 $NVDA 造成的超额需求。 但它们也正好站在 CPO 和甚至下一代 1.6T（$JBL LRO）扩产的最前沿，明年就会开始。 然后到 2027 年下半年或 2028 年，还能扩到硅光等相邻领域，比如可能的 $AAPL 消费设备。 或者 FMCW 4D AI 公司，比如 $AEVA。 这么多年开发，终于在明年要开花结果了。 我个人觉得市场漏掉了一个大东西，公开信息会随着时间推移慢慢被大家通过供应链关系、网站挖掘或者演示材料发现。 超大规模云厂商供应商不会无缘无故选一家 10 亿美元市值的瑞典激光公司。 和 $JBL 的直接合同就是最大的信号。 这也是我为什么高 conviction 做多。
英文原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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MRVL 可能直接向 SIVE 采购
@mpunaskar 这件事挺微妙的，不算完全正面，但也可能最终更正面。 我猜 $MRVL 很可能会直接向 $SIVE 采购。 直接对接超大规模云厂商，比如 Sivers + $JBL，要比中间再加一家公司正面得多。
英文原文
@mpunaskar It's nuanced, it's not positive but could end up more positive. It's very likely $MRVL just buys directly from $SIVE is my guess. Going direct to hyperscaler like Sivers + $JBL is much more positive than adding in another company in the middle.
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SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
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SIVE 业务很分散
哦，$SIVE 肯定没问题，因为它们已经高度多元化了。 它们大概基本上服务所有人： -> $AAPL 硅光 -> $JBL（可能最大） -> $AMD CPO 项目配合 $GFS， -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC 和其他 ASIC 设计商 -> O-Net ELS 还有其他客户。虽然这会在实质上让 2028-2029 年后期的预测稍微往后推一些（比如 Q4 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元）。 但如果它们的光源最终以某种方式进了 Marvell，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
Oh $SIVE is definitely fine, since they're vastly diversified. They likely basically serve everyone: -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics -> $JBL (probably largest) -> $AMD CPO program with $GFS, -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC and other ASIC designers -> O-Net ELS amongst others. Though this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029). But wouldn't be surprised if their light source ends up in Marvell one way or another.
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SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
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DNB 为 SIVE 估值发声
赞同，也很高兴看到欧洲领先银行之一 DNB 跟我一起出来为 $SIVE 的估值辩护。 我还是认为，随着激光业务按比例扩张，$SIVE 一年内可以到 100 亿美元市值。其增长会按以下规模推进： - $AAPL Watch - $JBL 1.6T 量产 - $MRVL CPO 量产 - Ayar 量产 - $POET 量产 这取决于它们如何从认证阶段走向量产爬坡。 既然 Sivers 正在给这个领域里下一代 1.6T / CPO 玩家供应激光器（进入类似 $AMD、$NVDA、$AMZN、$MSFT 这样的供应链），那就是已经存在的玩家了，市值大约 9.9 亿美元而已。还没算 TAM 扩张或者更多合作出现。 尤其现在有了纳斯达克上市，美国机构会提前按 12 个月的前瞻来定价，而欧洲本地估值主要看过去 12 个月。 银行通常会给出很保守的目标（比如 3 年 10 倍），但我确实看到这家公司很快可能变成下一个 $LITE。 欧洲应该拥抱自己公司为超大规模云厂商供货所带来的正和增长。 因为它们的前沿公司会通过税收、经济增长和就业增长回馈本地。
英文原文
Agreed, and glad DNB, one of Europe's leading banks, went out to defend $SIVE valuations alongside me. I still think $SIVE can reach $10B MC in 1 year time as their laser growth scales proportionally to: - $AAPL Watches - $JBL 1.6T Volume - $MRVL CPO Volume - Ayar Volume - $POET Volume Depending on how their qualification plays out into volume ramp. As Sivers supply lasers to all the next generation of 1.6T/CPO players in the space (into ~ $AMD, $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT type supply chains). These are EXISTING players at a ~990M MC. Not even including TAM expansion or more partnerships coming up. Especially now with NASDAQ listing, US institutions are forward looking and price in ~12M ahead of time, compared local European valuations that mainly look at previous 12 months. Banks usually provide very conservative targets (eg. 3 years for a 10x), but I do see potential for this company to be the next $LITE very soon. Europe should embrace positive-sum growth of their own companies that supply to hyperscalers. As their frontier companies provide back to locals through taxes, economic growth, and job growth.
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光子学正处于新超级周期
这件事非常微妙，我来解释为什么它不是“晚了”，只是对有些人来说已经晚了： 光子学是最新的超级周期（也许从 2025 年上半年到下半年就是起点）。 然后每个超级周期里都会有很多不同的架构变化： -> $LITE、$COHR、Innolight、$AXTI 这些名字引领了第一波 我之前那篇 thesis 把它们四个都列成了最大受益者（1 年涨幅都在 500%-1000%） -> $AAOI、$JBL 以及其他类似名字，会作为过渡桥梁受益巨大（例如 1.6T 可插拔） -> $SIVE、Celestial、Ayar、$POET 是未来几代，比如 CPO（我现在重点看的就是这个） -> VisEra、QD Laser、$ALMU 等等，若你把时间拉到 4 年后，很可能会是下一代（量子点、不同封装类型等） 当然，$LITE 什么都做，$AXTI 什么都能用。 但在每个小超级周期里，每次架构切换所对应的纯敞口是不一样的。 比如，量子点里 InP 还是会用，但占比会更少。或者 CPO 用 DFB 激光阵列而不是 EML。 $LITE 和 $COHR 也许还是会占 50%+。 所以你在“晚”的意义上确实有点靠后。 但对于新的架构世代，你其实又非常早。 我想做的，就是免费把普通散户往新金矿方向指一指。 在机构花 2 万美元买股票研究报告之前，先让大家知道这些。
英文原文
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
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回顾低价时逆势建仓RKLB、HOOD、SIVE的经历，忽视媒体噪音，专注公司基本面。
我在10美元左右做多$RKLB，因为他们的可重复使用火箭(reusable rocket)成功率。尽管银行/分析师声称它会崩盘。 我在10美元左右做多$HOOD，因为他们庞大的用户群和向其他业务领域的TAM扩张。 我做多$SIVE，因为他们的激光技术看起来被设计进了$AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL和其他行业领导者，尽管公司规模很小。 媒体在这些公司规模小时都反对它们。但只需要忽略那些噪音。
英文原文
I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash. I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments. I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small. Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.
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SIVE 还能再涨很多
听到了吗，匿名网友？ $SIVE 已经涨了 600%+。 但一年后它从这里再翻 10 倍也不是不可能……前提是 $AAPL、$JBL 和 $MRVL 在 2027 年都需要大规模量产他们的激光器。 这太夸张了。 可能是我继 $AXTI 之后最传奇的一篇 thesis 帖。
英文原文
Did you listen anon? The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+. But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027. Is incredible. Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX
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欧洲和美国的定价方式不同
你好，感谢更有建设性的讨论。 但除了欧洲人之外，我还真没见过谁会因为 2.5%、1300 万美元的稀释，就去抱怨一家要登陆纳斯达克的公司。 在美国……我们有些随机的比特币矿工，光为了试图转型和买 GPU，就能搞出 60 亿美元以上的稀释（超过公司一半市值）。所以对超大规模云厂商供应链来说，这点稀释其实非常小。 你也应该明白，你讨论的是美国超大规模云厂商的供应商，对吧？比如 $JBL、$MRVL……最近所有 CPO 时间表都被 $NVDA 提前了。 如果有什么的话，Sivers 是我见过最被低估的光子股票之一，而且绝对还没把上行计价进去。 美国市场通常会提前 12 个月定价，但我能理解欧洲是按过去 12 个月来看的。
英文原文
Hi, appreciate the more productive discussion. But I've never seen anyone aside from Europeans complain about 2.5% $13M dilution to get listed on NASDAQ. Over in the US... we have random Bitcoin miners with $6B+ dilution (over half the MC) just to attempt a pivot and buy GPUs. So the amount to hyperscalers supply chains is very tiny. And you do realize you're talking about US hyperscalers suppliers right? Like $JBL, $MRVL... All the CPO timelines have been accelerated by $NVDA recently. If anything Sivers is one of the most undervalued photonic stocks I've seen in the market and definitely not priced for upside yet. US markets typically price things 12 months in advance, but I understand if Europe does things previous 12 months.
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META 可能是终端客户
@xm_build 这甚至都算不上泄密…… 你知道 $SIVE 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供货，而当你指出 $META 很可能是最终终端客户时（因为 Meta 是 $INTC 的硅光客户，而 Jabil 已经收购了这个链条）， 人们就会生气，然后开始做空。这个文化挺有意思的。
英文原文
@xm_build It's not even leaks though... You know $SIVE is supplying to $JBL 1.6T LRO and when you point out $META is the likely end user (because Meta is the $INTC SiPH customer Jabil acquired). People get upset and start shorting. It's an amusing culture.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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两周等权收益回顾
先放这儿…… 如果等权计算，两周回报会是 +15.02%。 在 30 只不同股票上……大多是中大盘。 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% 显然时间周期很短，但我预计这些里面很多还会继续上涨。 如果你在特定名字的下跌时点位进场，而不是一口气同时做多，结果可能会更高。 也不算差吧？
英文原文
Just putting out there... Would have been +15.02% in 2W equal-weighted return. On 30 different stocks... mostly medium-large cap. 1. $INTC +29.62% 2. $MRVL +40.95% 3. $TSM +4.72% 4. $COHR +18.9% 5. $RKLB +26.76% 6. $DRAM +12.29% 7. $AVGO +18.32% 8. $AMZN +9.17% 9. $ARM +36.6% 10. $TSEM -1.25% 11. $IBIT +7.68% 12. $NBIS +15.22% 13. $GOOGL +6.41% 14. $AMKR +32.25% 15. $HOOD +19.14% 16. $CRCL +17.58% 17. $META +4.9% 18. $LITE -5.28% 19. $LPTH +20.23% 20. $FN +11.54% 21. $JBL +15.45% 22. $MP +17.48% 23. $HIMS +42.53% 24. $SMTC +18.83% 25. $POWL +9.26% 26. $VPG +17.44% 27. $MOG.A -3.96% 28. $MSFT +11.44% 29. $CVX -1.47% 30. $XLU -2.29% Obviously short timeframe, but I expect many of these to keep going up more. And probably would have been higher if you time the drop on specific names, rather than going long all at once. Not too shabby?
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850M 光子公司也该长期看多
@centraly22 如果一家 8.5 亿美元市值的光子公司不是很可能在一年内向 $AAPL、$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar 等客户进入量产爬坡，我不会对它有这么高的 conviction。
英文原文
@centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time.
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Win Semi 负责扩产
Win Semi 负责扩产……这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因，这样他们就不用自己烧 capex 去处理这件事。 世界上能做这类事的公开上市公司没几家，而且它们都已经是几十亿美元市值了。 $JBL 专门选 Sivers 是有原因的。Ayar 也是。和 $LITE、$MTSI 等相比都一样。 只看市值就低估这家公司的人真的太多了。
英文原文
Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this. There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions. There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Ayar. Compared to $LITE, $MTSI and the others. People really underestimate the company just by looking at the MC.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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博主炫耀自己早前推荐的IQE等股票被机构买入，强调研究前瞻性。
各位，大家都曾质疑我推荐的像$IQE这样的股票。 但为什么…我发了研究报告之后，瑞银或Point72这些机构都买入了？ 不知道瑞典媒体是否在做空$SIVE，但他们意识到是谁发掘了$AXTI的价值吗？ 我非常有信心，机构可能很快会跟进，因为Sivers的激光器为$MRVL、$JBL、Ayar等公司提供动力…这些都与$GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN及其他超大规模企业有关联。
英文原文
Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE. Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts? Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI? I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others… with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.
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SIVE 仍有巨大上行
@scrotum_pensif 我还是认为，$SIVE 今天应该值 20 亿美元，而且如果 Ayar、$MRVL、$JBL 等在 2028 年的量产爬坡顺利，明年可以到 100 亿美元以上。 他们现在一切条件都对齐了。
英文原文
@scrotum_pensif I still think $SIVE should be valued $2B today and can hit $10B+ next year depending on volume ramp from Ayar, $MRVL, $JBL and others in 2028 They have all the stars aligned right now.
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瑞典媒体看不懂光子学
我真的笑了。这大概是我目前见过最搞笑的标题了，自从 $RPI 那次之后。 你会看到瑞典那些不懂技术的记者，对半导体 / 光子学一窍不通。 他们在分析 $SIVE，还告诉所有本地人（大多数持股者）赶紧卖掉，因为它只是个“meme”。 他们不懂围绕即将到来的 $JBL 1.6T 或 $MRVL CPO 放量的超大规模云厂商认证周期吗？ 也不懂它刚刚被验证为 $GFS 生态里的激光供应商，而且 $AMD 正在推动新的 CPO 需求吗？ > 一定是 meme。只能按 2025 年 TTM 资产负债表和旧营收预测来估值，对吧？ 至少这种波动有助于在明年 CPO / 1.6T 关键拐点之前，把控制权转给美国投资者 / 机构。
英文原文
I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI. You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics. Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme". Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp? Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand? > Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right? At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.
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本地人抛售对机构有利
他们其实是在帮助美国机构，鼓励本地投资者卖出。 这原本是一只主要由本地散户持有的股票。它最终只会把控制权转给西方机构。 我不太明白“meme stock”怎么会去支撑 $JBL 1.6T、Ayar、$MRVL 以及其他 CPO / 光子项目，哈哈。
英文原文
They're actually doing good work for US institutions encouraging local investors to sell. It was a majority retail-locally owned stock. It will just transfer control over to institutions in the West. Not sure what "meme stock" powers $JBL 1.6T, Ayar, $MRVL, and other CPO/photonics programs lol.
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连续催化都对 SIVE 有利
这真的是巧合，催化剂一个接一个（$JBL）之后是纳斯达克上市，然后是（$GOOGL + $MRVL），再然后是（$GFS），再然后是（$GFS + $AMD）。 再加上 $NVDA 在到处投资 CPO。 我只是 OFC 之后才做多，没想到后面会有这么多事情，哈哈。
英文原文
It's legit coincidence that it's catalyst ( $JBL ) after catalyst (Nasdaq listing) after catalyst ( $GOOGL + $MRVL ), after catalyst ( $GFS ), after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD ). Alongside $NVDA investing into CPO everywhere. I just timed my long after OFC but did not expect all of this lol.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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称$700M流入AI供应链股票，建议用基本面分析等待市值兑现。
哪有什么回调——$700M正流入$JBL、J($MRVL)、Ayar、O-Net和其他供应链。人们也忘了$SIVE是芯片法案(CHIPS Act)的受益者，后续很可能还有更多跟进。最好基于前瞻增长做基本面分析来推导市值(MC)，然后等待逻辑兑现，而不是盯着K线图。
英文原文
What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains? People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups. Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking
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JBL LRO 的收入模型
我做了一些 $JBL LRO 放量的建模。 按我的个人估算，它会给 Sivers 带来： ~1.2 亿美元 2027 ~2.8 亿美元 2028 ~4.8 亿美元 2029 这对 Sivers 来说是 ARR 级别的收入，考虑到它的市值，已经极其重要了，而且还只算了这个客户本身，不包括 Marvell、Ayar 和其他未确认买家。 我个人当时觉得今天值 20 亿美元以上是合理的，我们看看后面会怎样。
英文原文
I did some modeling of $JBL LRO scale up. And from personal est. it brings in: ~$120M 2027 ~$280M 2028. ~$480M 2029 For ARR to Sivers, which is extremely significant given Sivers MC, from that customer alone. Not including Marvell, Ayar, and other unidentified buyers. I thought $2B+ today was reasonable personally, we’ll see what happens.
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700M 市值的 MRVL/JBL 激光供应商很少见
当然会了？你什么时候见过一家具备 $MRVL 和 $JBL 激光供应商地位的公司，市值才 7 亿美元？ 其他激光公司，比如 $MTSI 和 $LITE，现在都在几十亿美元市值区间，而 $SIVE 只有大约 7.2 亿美元。 至于 $ALRIB，既是 $MSFT Quantum 的供应商，又是 $IQE / Fujitsu 量子点业务的供应商，市值只有 3.5 亿美元，这也极其罕见。 你得知道自己持有什么，这样就不用问这种问题了。
英文原文
Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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质疑 LWLG 估值，拿 Shunsin 和 SIVEF 做对比。
抱歉，但我越来越确信 $LWLG 就是光子领域里的当前 $RGTI。 我完全不懂……他们怎么会值 18 亿美元。 鸿海的光学业务 Shunsin，给 $NVDA 做 CPO 的封装、组装和测试…… 估值反而只有 14 亿美元？ 而 $SIVEF 作为 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的激光源，前几天估值还只有它们的三分之一？ 感觉像是傻钱机构因为一份开发测试协议，买错了名字。 我没有持仓，只是觉得困惑。
英文原文
Sorry but I’m convinced $LWLG is the current $RGTI of photonics. I have zero clue… How they’re valued at $1.8B. Foxconn’s optical arm Shunsin, for $NVDA CPO packaging, assembly, and testing… Is valued less at $1.4B? $SIVEF, the laser source for $JBL and $MRVL was 1/3rd their valuation earlier this week? Feels like dumb money institutions went into the wrong name off a development test agreement. I have no open positions, just confused
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高确信看好 SIVE，NASDAQL 上市在即。
@jonnylee47 我对 $SIVE 的信心很高，尤其是现在这个价位。 你很少会看到 $JBL 或 $MRVL 的激光供应商只值 7 亿美元。再加上很快就会在 NASDAQ 上市，美国机构资金会进来。
英文原文
@jonnylee47 High conviction on $SIVE, especially at current levels. You don't see the laser supplier of $JBL or $MRVL sitting at $700m every day. Also it helps there's NASDAQ listing for US institutional inflows soon.
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说 SIVE 正在走向 LITE 路径，且有多重利好。
$SIVE 正在走向变成 $LITE 的路上。 过去两天里： > $JBL 确认使用 $SIVE 激光用于他们的 1.6T 光学收发器 > Sivers 从长期机构投资者（比如养老基金 / 机构投资者）那里融资 1350 万美元以上，降低了资产负债表风险 > $SIVE 计划在美国 NASDAQ 上市。 这走势也太疯狂了。 我还是觉得短期内它会冲到 20 亿美元以上市值。 尤其是随着股票从瑞典本地投资者转向真正懂 photonics 的西方基金 / 投资者。
英文原文
$SIVE is on its journey to be $LITE . In the last 2 days: > $JBL confirmation of using $SIVE lasers for their 1.6T optical transceivers > Sivers raises $13.5M+ from long term institutional investors (eg. pension funds/institutional investors), de-risking balance sheet issues > $SIVE plans to list on US NASDAQ. What a crazy turn of events? I still think it's heading to $2B+ MC in the near term. Especially as shares transfer from local Swedish investors to Western funds/investors who understand what’s up and coming with photonics.
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解释 Fittech 与 Shunsin、Win/Sivers 的供应链去向。
@KentTian Fittech 在 $TSM Coupe 生态里，Shunsin 是鸿海的光学封装。 Win / Sivers 是 $JBL、$MRVL，还有 Ayar（也许还有 AlChip 等）。 它们最终都会流向 hyperscaler，只是路径和终点不同。
英文原文
@KentTian Fittech is in $TSM Coupe ecosystem, Shunsin is Foxconn optical packaging. Win/Sivers is $JBL, $MRVL, and Ayar (maybe AlChip and others). They all end up to hyperscalers, just in different ways and different ones.
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看好 SIVE 与 Win Semi 受益于激光量产周期。
这正是我做多 $SIVE 激光生态加 Win Semi（3105）的原因。 下一轮激光大规模量产的架构超级周期，受益者是谁？ Sivers + Win。 尤其是昨天宣布 Sivers 正在为 $JBL 的 1.6T 光学收发器供货之后。 https://t.co/05wYF3fR0U
英文原文
This is exactly why I long the $SIVE laser ecosystem with Win Semi (3105). The beneficiaries of the next architectural supercycle for laser mass production? Sivers + Win. Especially with the announcement yesterday that Sivers is powering $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. https://t.co/05wYF3fR0U
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极度看好 SIVE，认为其很快会升至 20 亿市值。
我对 $SIVE 的信心真的太高了，天啊。你现在手里有 $JBL、$MRVL 的激光供应商，市值只有 6 亿美元。 他们又要在 NASDAQ 上市，让所有机构投资者都终于能进场。 而这次融资稀释才 2.5%…… 这执行力和管理层真的太强了。
英文原文
I just have such high conviction on $SIVE, holy ****. You have the laser supplier for $JBL, $MRVL: at $600m. They're getting listed on NASDAQ where all the institutional investors can finally enter. And their dilution to do this? 2.5%... That's just amazing execution and management.
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强调 SIVE 正在推进纳斯达克上市，像下一只 LITE。
$SIVE 正在推进美国 NASDAQ 上市，路透已经报了。 欢迎来到美国，Sivers。 我之前说过，基于今天的基本面，Sivers 现在看起来很快就应该值 20 亿美元以上。 而且一旦在 NASDAQ 上市，美国机构很可能会开始涌入这家给 $MRVL 和 $JBL 供货的激光供应商。 这发生在今天一轮非常利好的 2.5% 融资之后，融资对象是新的“国际机构投资者”，大概率是为了支付上市所需的监管 / 审计成本。 “参与定向配股的投资者包括少数瑞典和国际机构投资者及其他合格投资者。” 我们大概率会看到消息推动的近乎抛物线式上涨。 仅仅过去三天： -> $JBL 1.6T 使用 $SIVE -> $SIVE 新的美国 / 国际机构投资者 -> $SIVE 看起来要在 NASDAQ 上市。 我们正在见证下一只 $LITE 的诞生。
英文原文
$SIVE executing US NASDAQ listing from Reuters. Welcome to America Sivers. I said Sivers looks like it should be valued at $2B+ soon based on today's fundamentals. And US institutions will likely be piling into the laser supplier for $MRVL and $JBL once it's on NASDAQ. This comes after a highly bullish 2.5% raise today from new "international institutional investors" to likely fund regulatory/audit requirements for the listing. "The investors in the Directed Share Issue comprise of a limited number of Swedish and international institutional and other qualified investors" We’ll likely going to see a parabolic ride up from the news. In just the last three days: -> $JBL 1.6T to use $SIVE -> $SIVE new US/international institutional investors -> $SIVE looks to be listed on NASDAQ. We're witnessing the birth of the next $LITE.
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强调供应链映射前瞻性远胜基本面回看。
不，他们的基本面并不一样。这就是大多数散户不理解、也最让人沮丧的地方。 $SIVE 真的拿到了 $JBL 这个 hyperscaler 客户，O-Net 也在服务亚洲 hyperscaler。 然后 $MRVL 从 $NVDA 拿到了 20 亿美元，还给出了 Celestial CPO 放量的指引（这会传导到 $SIVE）。 $POET 也给了指引，并表示下半年会开始放量交付，比预期更早。 ASE 甚至直接预计 2026 年下半年 CPO 放量，远早于预期。 所以如果我们把激光环节的未来盈利增长往前映射，它应该会加速很多。 市场定价的是未来增长，不是回头看 2025 年的基本面。
英文原文
No, they didn't have the same fundamentals. This is what majority of retail investors don't understand and it's so frustrating. $SIVE literally landed $JBL as a hyperscaler client, and O-Net which serves Asian hyperscalers. Then $MRVL ended up getting $2B from $NVDA and gave projections on their Celestial CPO ramp (which trickles down to $SIVE). $POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected. ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected. So if we map forward earnings growth from lasers, it should accelerate a lot. Markets price in future growth, not backward 2025 fundamentals.
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作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
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认为 SIVE 的 2B 估值判断是真的。
我真的不是随口说说我认为 $SIVE 今天能值 20 亿美元。 你什么时候还能找到一家对 $MRVL、$JBL 和 hyperscaler 供应链都至关重要的激光供应商…… 而市值只有 6.2 亿美元？ 找不到……因为世界上本来就没几家。 而在 hyperscaler 供应链里，像 $LITE 到 $MTSI 这些名字都已经是几十亿美元市值了……
英文原文
I really meant it when I thought $SIVE could be valued at $2B today. When do you ever find a critical laser supplier to $MRVL, $JBL, and Hyperscaler supply chains... At $620m MC? You can't... Since there's only a few in the world. And the rest in hyperscaler supply chains from $LITE to $MTSI are in the tens of billions...
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Sivers成为JBL光学收发器激光光源供应商，证实进入超大规模业者供应链。
Sivers Photonics ($SIVE) 是下一个 $LITE，市值5.6亿美元。机构投资者今天得到了完整确认：Sivers 现已成为超大规模业者(hyperscaler)供应链中的光源(light source)，并直接向 $JBL 供应光学收发器(optical transceivers)。这只是时间问题。 官方消息：$JBL 将使用 $SIVE 的激光器用于光学收发器。今天的消息："Jabil 计划开发一款1.6T线性接收光学(LRO)收发器模块，使用 Sivers 的高性能分布反馈(DFB)激光器"。Jabil Photonics 表示："与 Sivers 合作将使我们能够提供满足数据中心性能及功耗目标的大规模1.6T LRO解决方案"。 你是否见过哪个光源(light source)进入超大规模业者供应链...市值只有5亿美元？我们此前在 OFC 展会上从物理渠道获得过暗示，但许多机构投资者需要类似这样的实际确认。
英文原文
$SIVE is the next $LITE at $560m MC. Institutions just got full confirmation today: Sivers is now the light source in hyperscaler supply chains and the direct supplier of $JBL optical transceivers. It’s only a matter of time. https://t.co/Eh9GherJTV
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强调 JBL 的规模会放大 SIVE 的影响。
@StormDirac 没错。$JBL 体量巨大，尤其是在它更早收购了 $INTC 的 SiPH 部门之后。 我真的不觉得市场已经意识到 $SIVE 接下来会发生什么。
英文原文
@StormDirac Exactly. $JBL is massive, especially after buying $INTC's SiPH division earlier. I genuinely don't think markets realize coming yet with $SIVE.
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把 SIVE 与 JBL 的供货关系视作结构性转变。
这终于算是 $SIVE 的供应链映射验证了。 $JBL 真的******巨大，而 Sivers 激光现在大概率会进入 Jabil 的 hyperscaler 客户，比如 $AMZN、$GOOGL。 这是一个非常结构性的变化，如果官方确认下来，我个人会把 Sivers 估到 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
This is finally supply chain mapping validation with $SIVE. $JBL is ****** massive and Sivers lasers now will likely go into Jabil's hyperscalers clients like $AMZN, $GOOGL. This is such a structural change and I would personally value Sivers over $2B+ after official confirmation.
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官方确认 JBL 将使用 SIVE 激光。
官方确认：$JBL 将为他们的光学收发器使用 $SIVE 激光。 今天的消息： “Jabil 计划使用 Sivers 的高性能分布反馈（DFB）激光，开发 1.6T 线性接收光学（LRO）收发器模块。” Jabil Photonics： “与 Sivers 合作将使我们能够大规模交付满足数据中心性能和功耗目标的 1.6T LRO 方案。” 你在哪儿见过 hyperscaler 供应链里的‘光源’…… 而且还是在 5 亿美元市值下？ 我们之前在 OFC 物理渠道里已经听到过暗示，但很多机构需要这样的正式确认。
英文原文
IT'S OFFICIAL: $JBL to use $SIVE Lasers for their optical transceivers. Today: "Jabil plans to develop a 1.6T linear receive optical (LRO) transceiver module using Sivers’ high-performance Distributed Feedback (DFB) lasers" Jabil Photonics: :Working with Sivers will allow us to deliver a 1.6T LRO solution that meets both data center performance and power targets at scale" Where have you seen the LIGHT SOURCE for hyperscaler supply chains... At a $500m MC? We had this hinted from physical sources at OFC, but many institutions needed actual confirmation like this.
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认为 SIVE 若是美股会值 20 亿以上，并有清晰上行路径。
我其实觉得如果 $SIVE 作为美国公司挂牌，今天就应该交易在 20 亿美元以上市值……而不是等到今年晚些时候。 因为我不太明白： - $LWLG 为什么会交易到 3.5 倍以上的估值 - 做自己激光器封装的公司，估值却只有它的 5-6 倍 - 像从 $MTSI 到 $LITE 这些激光公司，估值都在几十亿美元区间。 而 Sivers 又是通过 $MRVL、$JBL、O-Net 等进入 hyperscaler 供应链，而不是只依赖单一客户。 全球公开上市的 AI 数据中心激光公司其实也没多少。 所以它要么会成为 $AVGO 或 $MRVL 很想纵向整合上游的高优先级收购标的。 要么它可以走 $LITE 那种路线：从 17 美元涨到 800 美元，并通过 IP 收购把 ELS / optical transceiver stack 的下游 TAM 扩大。 当然，这取决于公司到底有多激进，但我就是觉得自从我发 thesis 后，没人真正注意到瑞典这个激光供应商。 可能只是需要给美国上市一点耐心，我几乎可以确定美国机构会像对 $IQE 那样感兴趣。 DD 周期通常在他们读完我的 thesis 后会持续几周，但我看得到未来几年从这里走到 100 亿美元以上市值的清晰路径。
英文原文
I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not later this year. Since I’m not sure how: - $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation - packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation. - laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions. And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer. There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either. So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream. Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions. Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post. Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE. DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.
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看好$SIVE被机构买入，估值被低估，有望复制$LITE走势
对$SIVE非常有信心，因为会有机构投资者进来。 它是$MRVL、$JBL等公司的激光器供应商。 当它被设计进超大规模数据中心供应链、规模约4.3亿美元时，估值脱节完全说不通。 再看未来几年共封装光学(CPO)和1.6T收发器的增长，简直疯狂。 这看起来是下一个$LITE的开端，我认为机构投资者可能因为瑞典上市而参与较晚。
英文原文
Pretty confident about $SIVE regarding institutions coming in next. Laser supplier for $MRVL, $JBL, and a few others. Valuation disconnect makes no sense when they’re designed into hyperscaler supply chains at ~$430M. And you look at CPO and 1.6T transceiver ramp over next few years, it’s insanity. It looks like the start of the next $LITE over the next year, imo institutions probably late to the party due to Swedish listing.
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回顾自己多次抢跑机构的 thesis 命中。
我不是早就告诉过你们，散户完全可以抢在机构前面吗，anon？？ -> 两个月后，Point72 正在高位猛烈买入 $IQE…… 在我那篇关于 latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE 供应商的 thesis 之后。 -> Apollo 真的把 NSG 买下来了，也就是我指出的 $TSM COUPE 玻璃供应商。 -> 我最近还找到了很多其他名字，比如 $SIVE，它是 $MRVL / $JBL 的激光供应商，而 Riber 是 $MSFT 的未知量子供应商（还借助了一位朋友）。 我就是喜欢把信息发现 / 综合整理民主化，先给散户，而不是卖给机构或者藏在 2 万美元以上的付费墙后面。 股票本来就是真正的正和游戏，散户这次终于能第一次领先。
英文原文
Didn’t I tell you all it’s possible retail can frontrun institutions anon?? -> Point72 is aggressively buying up $IQE 2 months later at ATHs... After my latent InP reactor capacity + $LITE supplier thesis post. -> Apollo literally bought out NSG, the $TSM COUPE glass provider I identified. -> And I've identified many others like $SIVE, the $MRVL / $JBL supplier to Riber the unknown quantum supplier to $MSFT (with the help of a friend) recently. I happen to like democratizing information discovery/synthesis to retail investors at the very beginning… Instead of selling analysis to institutions or behind $20000+ paywalls. Stocks are genuinely positive sum where retail can get the lead for the first time.
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说信息发现会吸引注意力，不是发帖的人。
我有这么强吗？ 我觉得大概只是信息综合与发现而已。要是我发一篇关于一家纸巾公司 8 倍市盈率的帖子，没人会在意。 但当 $SIVE 是 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的光源，市值只有大约 4 亿美元…… 而且只交易像 $LWLG 这种更投机名字估值的四分之一…… 而其他像 $MTSI 或 $LITE 之类做 CW DFB 的公司市值都在几十亿美元时…… 最后吸引大家注意力的，是信息本身，而不是发信息的人。
英文原文
am i that powerful? pretty sure it's just information synthesis + discovery. If I posted about a napkin company trading at 8 p/e, nobody would care. When $SIVE is the light source for $JBL and $MRVL at ~400m... and trades at like 1/4th the valuation of something more speculative like $LWLG. while all the other CW DFB companies like $MTSI or $LITE are all in the tens of billions. Information ends up drawing people's attention, not the person.
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称 Sivers 的激光业务被低估，是 Marvell 和 Jabil 的激光供应商。
@yy1625066197303 激光器就是在狂飙，基本上就是这样。我很喜欢 $SIVE 现在得到更多关注，感觉它作为 $MRVL、$JBL 的激光供应商被严重低估了。
英文原文
@yy1625066197303 Lasers go brrr basically, love $SIVE is getting more attention, feels extremely underrated as the $MRVL, $JBL laser supplier
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分析光子学超级周期下的CPO/激光技术路线机遇，SIVE作为小市值激光标的具有独特供应链位置。
光子学“超级周期”有许多细微的架构变化。如果你在去年错过了$LITE，今年可以通过CPO/激光来抢先布局下一个周期。$SIVE是我相对小众的激光敞口标的。他们参与在$JBL的1.6T LRO、$MRVL的Celestial、O-Net到超大规模业者。这对于一家市值约3.5亿美元的公司来说极为罕见。如果要我类比：类似于$AAOI在2025年的情况，或现在的$AEHR——正处于批量生产前的资质认证周期。正因如此，散户只看今天财务数据（负eps或capex支出）时会误解公司情况。而且与批量生产/capex支出相关的dfb激光扩产执行不确定性，已通过Win Semi被去风险化。然而看起来从2026年下半年开始会持续爬坡到2029年以后。可能在时间上稍早一些……但我认为这是对未来即将到来的趋势的一个不错研判。稀释是真实风险。但很多担忧已经被定价到约3.5亿美元市值里，尤其当$AVGO或AlChip这样的公司可以收购$SIVE用于垂直整合或干扰Marvell的CPO计划时。
英文原文
There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers. $SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure. They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers. Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company. If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume. Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend. And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi. However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026. Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming. Dilution is a real risk. But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
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判断 SIVE / Win 会受新一轮 CW 激光周期带动。
$SIVE / Win 会受 2027 年下一轮架构超级周期里的 CW 激光推动。我现在只是像去年布局 $LITE 那样，提前在 H1 先埋伏。 你大概也知道，他们已经进了 $MRVL 的 Celestial、$JBL 的 1.6T LRO，以及 O-Net，所以到 2029 年会有很大的放量。 像 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 这些则是当前的光收发器周期。
英文原文
$SIVE / Win benefits from CW lasers from the next architectural supercycle in 2027. I'm just frontrunning that now H1 like $LITE last year. You already kinda know they're in $MRVL Celestial, $JBL 1.6T LRO, and O-Net so thats huge ramp into 2029. Stuff like $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight are current optical transceiver cycles.
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认为光源供应商SIVE为MRVL和JBL供货，市值被低估至3.5亿美元。
我还是认为 $SIVE 值得投资。一家为 $MRVL 和 $JBL 提供光源的公司，市值不应该只有 3.5 亿美元。他们只需要在纳斯达克上市就行了。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 I still think it's $SIVE. A company that's the light source for $MRVL and $JBL should be valued more than $350m imo. They just need to get listed on Nasdaq.
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博主列出30只看好的美股并简述理由，涵盖AI半导体、太空、机器人、加密等领域
今天随机列出30只美国可投资的股票以及我喜欢它们的理由： 1. $INTC——美国晶圆代工的希望，国家安全 2. $MRVL——未来的maia芯片和CPO等附加产品推动营收规模化，业务范围太多数不过来 3. $TSM——半导体/AI的支柱 4. $COHR——业务全垂直整合 + 捕获光学周期 5. $RKLB——太空领域的终极前沿，5年后和20年后都会存在 6. $DRAM——三星/SK海力士的内存敞口 7. $AVGO——超大规模云商不喜欢英伟达GPU税 8. $AMZN——没人能竞争得过隔夜送达卫生纸这件事。机器人技术会长期降低运营费用 9. $ARM——AGI CPU在未来十年会大幅提升营收 10. $TSEM——做光相关的东西你需要晶圆代工 11. $IBIT——比特币，这点我们现在已经众所周知了 12. $NBIS——我认为它是下一个AWS。此外它们还与优步合作做自动驾驶，拥有可扩展的数据库公司、数据标注业务。几乎像一个小谷歌。 13. $GOOGL——youtube不会消失，gemini很棒。它们通过TPU实现垂直整合，用运营收入资助基础设施建设，所以我看好它。 14. $AMKR——超级工厂将在2027-2028年末投产。受益于美国制造政策 15. $HOOD——短期我不喜欢，但长期我看好罗宾汉，因为他们抓住了散户 + 有更多产品如银行等正在规模化。产品创新很疯狂。 16. $CRCL——我恰好非常喜欢稳定币，并认为它们是支付和持有的未来（取决于澄清法案的进展） 17. $META——人们不会很快停止使用Instagram、Whatsapp或其他应用。 18. $LITE——$GOOGL TPU敞口在BOM中占比较高。只要谷歌的AI计划持续运行，我认为$LITE会表现良好。 19. $LPTH——锗和中国出口管制问题将持续存在，因此美国制造的工程替代品将始终重要。 20. $FN——总得有人来组装光学产品 21. $JBL——同上，但加上英特尔硅光业务的IP，可能会成为innolight那样的公司 22. $MP——美国稀土项目极其重要，类似于$INTC涉及的国家安全风险 23. $HIMS——听我说，他们刚收购了一堆公司，股价在$19时有全球DTC渠道。做空者非常讨厌这家公司，但我认为作为逆向多头它实际上很有前景。 24. $SMTC——LRO/LPO转型 25. $POWL——美国版hammond，用于开关设备DC类瓶颈的替代方案 26. $VPG——人形机器人未来会成为主流，大概2027-2028年，这家公司做传感器。 27. $MOG.A——感觉在机器人领域、spacex供应链里到处都能看到它们 28. $MSFT——在$375这个价位，有一天我们会回头看发现这是买入机会。 29. $CVX——战争结束后油价可能会崩，但这些石油公司将变得极其重要，尤其是委内瑞拉还是个金矿。 30. $XLU——我认为降息可能会重启，我们需要电力/电网来支持AI，所以从$CEG到$NEE这些名字将始终重要。 只是顺便抛出一些除了$AAOI和$AEHR之外的想法。
英文原文
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.
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感谢 9200 付费订阅，并表示大家喜欢自己的研究思路。
哇，已经有 9200 位付费订阅者了…… 我真的非常感激，谢谢大家！ 很高兴很多人觉得我从 $JBL 到 $ALRIB 这些随机标的上的思路对他们有帮助，只要 1 美元就能看到。
英文原文
Woah 9200 paid subscribers… I’m super humbled, thank you everyone! Im glad a lot of people found my thought process on random names from $JBL to $ALRIB helpful for $1! https://t.co/LXGVgFPDJt
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觉得 JBL 也值得关注，并表示自己当天继续加仓 COHR。
@SidkMena 我觉得这里的 $JBL 也有意思。今天我又买了一些 Jabil 和更多的 $COHR。
英文原文
@SidkMena Maybe $JBL is interesting here too. Ended up buying Jabil and more $COHR today
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认为 SIVE 的目标价远高于当前市值，作为激光供应商被严重低估。
@HeinzelAI 是的，入场点很重要，但长期来看我觉得没那么关键。 我个人认为 $SIVE 在未来一年可以涨 1000%+……我真不明白，为 $MRVL 和 $JBL 提供激光器的公司怎么才值 3.5 亿美元？
英文原文
@HeinzelAI Yeah entry point is important but long term it doesn’t matter imo. I personally think $SIVE can 1000%+ in the next year… not sure how the laser supplier to $MRVL and $JBL is valued at $350m?
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认为 SIVE 在 CW 激光赛道被低估，且随着 CPO 和光学扩产，估值有望抬升。
当你把从 $COHR 到 $AAOI 的 CW 激光龙头公司名单都过一遍时， 就会发现 $SIVE 以 3 亿美元市值还站在那里，真的很夸张……其他玩家几乎都已经是几十亿市值了。 而它还是 $JBL 1.6T LRO 光收发器和大约 $MRVL Celestial 光子项目的光源供应商（如今还受到 $NVDA 20 亿美元投资的加速）。 从 Furukawa 到 Yuanjie，整个行业最近都被重新定价了。 但我确实认为市场漏掉了这只，因为他们预计从 H2 开始量产爬坡（来自 $POET 的业绩提示），而 CPO 和光学扩产会带来多年指数级 TAM 扩张。 下行风险在于资产负债表，但我认为他们的光子业务实体未来大概率会在纳斯达克上市，而且作为超大规模客户的光源供应商，价值远高于当前估值。 而且这很可能会在不久后带来估值溢价。 我们看看结果是不是这样吧。
英文原文
When you go through the list of the leading CW laser companies from $COHR to $AAOI. It’s very impressive $SIVE stands out at $300m still… compared to the every other player in the billions. This is despite being the light source for $JBL 1.6T LRO optical transceivers and ~ $MRVL Celestial photonics program (now accelerated by $NVDA $2B investment). The sector from Furukawa to Yuanjie has been re-rated recently. But I do think markets missed this one, as they start volume ramp est. H2 (from $POET earnings) with multi year exponential TAM expansion from CPO and optical scale up. Downside risk is balance sheet, but I do think the likely Nasdaq listing for their photonics entity + scaling as the hyperscaler light source far exceeds current valuations. And will likely drive valuation premiums in a matter of time. We’ll see if this turns out right or not.
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认为激光瓶颈下很难选赢家，Sivers 以较低市值却进入大客户路线图而很有吸引力。
100% 是激光。 我个人不会往下游去做组装之类的业务。 但在激光瓶颈下，真的很难在 Luxnet、Furukawa、Sumitomo、$SIVE、$MTSI、$LITE、$SMTC（在 Heico 收购 CW 之后）这些公司里挑出唯一赢家…… 不过我觉得 Sivers 特别有吸引力，因为它们已经进入了 $JBL 的 1.6T 路线图，以及 $MRVL 的 CPO 路线图，而市值才大约 2.9 亿美元。
英文原文
100% lasers. I personally wouldn't go downstream into assembly and others. But with the laser chokepoint it's really hard to pick a winner between stuff like Luxnet, Furukawa, Sumitomo, $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE, $SMTC (after heico cw acqusition) and others... But I found Sivers to be really compelling since they're in $JBL 1.6T + $MRVL CPO roadmap at ~$290m MC.
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认为 2.9 亿市值放在 MRVL、JBL 和超大规模云流量链条里，等待 CPO 放量就好。
@Johnyom8 一家 2.9 亿美元市值的公司，已经被设计进 $MRVL、$JBL 和超大规模云厂流量链条里。 我不觉得自己判断错了，CPO 的放量路径就是这样演化的。 这只是等量放大的问题。
英文原文
@Johnyom8 $290m MC for a company designed into $MRVL, $JBL and hyperscaler flows. I don't think I'm wrong seeing how CPO scale up evolves. Just a waiting game for volume ramp.
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分析 $SIVE 在光子学 CPO CW WDM 供应链中的关键地位，估值 $3 亿相对 $LITE 的 $550 亿市值极具不对称优势。
"没有 Win（赢家）就拼不出 Winner（胜利者）。" "因此：我看多 $SIVE 供应链。" "$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> 超大规模数据中心，作为一个整体流程。" "如果你对比同样处于共封装光学(CPO) CW WDM 领域的 $LITE 等公司。" "原因如下：" "-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial。" "-> Ayar / $JBL 和 O-Net 使用 $SIVE。" "它被设计为超大规模数据中心下一代光子学架构的光源。" "估值约 $3 亿。" "而且我确实认为 WDM DFB 阵列是规模扩展(scale up)的优选架构。且开发难度极高。" "这不是零和博弈的架构之争，如何处理规模扩展(scale out)很可能会与使用单发射器的 $LITE 和 $COHR 分工合作。" "以及像 $MRVL 这样有内部供应链的厂商如何设计他们的架构。" "但如果你比较市值差异（$SIVE 约 $3 亿，$LITE 约 $550 亿）。" "任何人都能看清这个光子学领域 $3.3 亿美元即将到来的颠覆者 $SIVE 价值有多明显。" "尤其是 Win Semi 斥资 $40 亿的晶圆厂承接了来自 $SIVE、$AVGO、$MTSI 等客户的 fabless 激光器规模化生产。" "对于做多这条供应链以及光子学和超大规模数据中心架构发展方向来说，这是高度非对称性的机会。
英文原文
You cant spell Winner without Win. Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain. $SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow. If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space. There’s a reason why: -> $POET / $MRVL Celestial. -> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE. It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers. At a ~$300M valuation. And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop. It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR. As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures. But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE). Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space. And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale. It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
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认为 SIVE 是光学激光瓶颈的最高暴露标的，已经是多家供应商的 CW 光源。
@NBA_GSW_30 我真的很喜欢 $SIVE，它是光学激光瓶颈里最有暴露度的标的！ 它们已经是 Jabil、Ayar、Marvell Celestial、O-Net 等很多供应商的 CW 光源。 而且我觉得这家公司还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
@NBA_GSW_30 I really like $SIVE as the highest exposure to the optical laser bottleneck! They’re already the CW light source for many suppliers like Jabil, Ayar, Marvell Celestial, O-Net. And I think the company has a long way to go
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认为标的当前约 4.4 亿市值，长期可看到数十亿美元级别，Jabil 放量后 MTSI 也会重估。
@rodrimartinezgg 现在大概交易在 4.4 亿美元市值附近，但我对今天的预期是 20 到 30 亿美元。 然后在一年半后，一旦 Jabil 和其他公司开始放量，它可能会到 $MTSI 的 170 到 200 亿美元市值。
英文原文
@rodrimartinezgg Trading at ~$440M right now but my expectation is $2-3B today. Then could be $MTSI $17-20B MC in a year and half once Jabil and others scale up.
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$SIVE是极少数纯光激光瓶颈投资标的，估值仅4亿美元却已切入超大规模云服务商供应链。
$SIVE简直是世界上少数几个纯正的公共投资渠道，直接暴露在（CW/EML）光学激光瓶颈中。 $LITE - 550亿美元+ $COHR - 530亿美元+ $MTSI - 178亿美元+ $AAOI - 88亿美元 $SIVE - 4亿美元 你几乎从来没见过这种情况... 真的震惊于有一家像Sivers这样的小型公司存在。它已经通过Jabil、Marvell Celestial、O-Net、Ayar等公司成为超大规模云服务商的合格供应商。 这是我见过的市场上最大的结构性缺口之一。 我预计市场会像$AXTI一样每天重新定价这件事，随着越来越多的机构开始意识到这一点。 （引用内容）： $SIVE一定是我在这个市场里见过的除了$AXTI之外上涨空间最大的股票？ 市场不可能错过Jabil、Marvell（通过$POET的Celestial）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有$NVDA和联发科支持）所用的CW激光光源... 估值只有1.4亿美元（现在是3.5亿美元）。 不仅能获得最直接的激光敞口，用于未来的CPO规模化？ 还有这个周期的1.6T可插拔模块，与$JBL（前英特尔硅光子部门）即将推出的产品合作。 稳懋(Win Semi)需要为超大规模云服务商供应链扩大桥接产能。 99.9%的人还没意识到这件事的规模之大。
英文原文
$SIVE is literally one of the only pure play public exposure to the (CW/EML) optical laser bottlenecks in the world. $LITE - $55B+ $COHR - $53B+ $MTSI - $17.8B+ $AAOI - $8.8B $SIVE- $400M You basically almost never see this... Genuinely shocked there's a small cap company out there like Sivers... That already is a qualified supplier to hyperscaler supply chains through Jabil, Marvel Celestial, O-Net, Ayar and others. This is one of the largest structural gaps in the market I've seen. I expect the market to keep repricing this every day like $AXTI as more institutions begin to realize this.
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$SIVE 估值洼地，兼具CPO激光和1.6T可插拔光模块双重赛道，上涨空间极大
$SIVE 一定是我在这个市场里见过的相对于 $AXTI 而言上涨空间最大的股票了吧？市场不可能错过 CW 激光光源这条赛道——客户包括 Jabil、Marvell（通过 $POET 的 Celestial 项目）、O-Net、Ayar（背后有 $NVDA 和联发科支持）……而估值才 1.4 亿美元（现在是 3.5 亿了）。你不仅能获得对未来共封装光学(CPO)规模扩张最直接的激光业务敞口，还能获得本轮周期 1.6T 可插拔光模块业务敞口——$JBL（前身为英特尔硅光子业务部门）的产品即将推出。此外，稳懋半导体(Win Semi)的代工产能扩张对于超大规模云厂商的供应链也至关重要。我认为 99.9% 的人还没有意识到这件事的规模有多大。
英文原文
$SIVE has gotta be the highest upside stock I’ve seen in this market since $AXTI? No way markets missed the CW laser light source for Jabil, Marvell (Celestial via $POET), O-Net, Ayar ( $NVDA, Mediatek backed)… At a $140M valuation. ($350m now) Not only do you get the most direct laser exposure to future CPO scale up? But also this cycle’s 1.6T pluggables with $JBL (formerly Intel Silicon Photonics division) coming soon. With Win Semi bridge capacity scaling needed for hyperscaler supply chains. Don’t think 99.9% of people realized the sheer scale of this yet.
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同意 SIVE 是光子超级周期里被低估的光源，并已进入 Jabil 1.6T 光模块周期。
是的，完全同意！$SIVE 是一个非常被低估的名字，它是即将到来的光学超级周期里的光源。 它甚至都还没等到 Celestial 或 Ayar 的 CPO，就已经在 Jabil 的 1.6T 光模块周期里被点名为光源，这正好填补了可插拔等待的空窗。
英文原文
Yes agreed! It $SIVE is such an undiscovered name that's the light source for the up and coming optical supercycle. It's not even waiting for CPO with Celestial or Ayar either. They're the named light source for Jabil's 1.6T optical transcivers cycle, which bridges the waiting gap with pluggables.
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把 SIVE->AEVA->LG->Boston Dynamics 视为 4D Physical AI 到光子学的交叉链条。
如果你不记得的话： $AEVA 是我做 4D Physical AI + World Models 的多头。 -> LG 向 $AEVA 投资了 5000 万美元，共同开发 FMCW 4D LiDAR，并明确提到了 humanoids。 -> LG（Boston Dynamics 的视觉供应商）。 但…… 谁在生产这些 FMCW LiDAR 用的 CW 激光器？ 就是那个同样负责光子学放量、并在 $JBL 和 $MRVL Celestial 的 1.6T+ 可插拔模块里扮演关键角色的公司。 它大概率也是 humanoids 和 4D physical AI 的 4D AI CW 激光供应商。 一个很可能的映射是： -> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics。 $SIVE 和 $AEVA 都是我的两只多头，但 4D Physical AI 到光子学这些前沿赛道往往会重叠。
英文原文
If you don't remember: $AEVA was my long for 4D Physical AI + World Models. -> LG $50m in $AEVA to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing Humanoids -> LG (Boston Dynamics vision spuplier). But... Guess who makes those CW lasers for FM-CW Lidar? The very same company for scaling photonics with 1.6T+ pluggables with $JBL to CPO in $MRVL Celestial. Is the likely 4D AI CW laser supplier for humanoids and 4D physical AI. One highly possible mapping: -> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics. Both $SIVE and $AEVA were my two longs, but frontier sectors in 4D Physical AI to photonics tend to overlap.
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说 SIVE 因 Jabil、MRVL、Ayar、Onet 等链条而从高风险变成低风险高回报。
是的，我原帖里也公布了财务数据。2 月份的重组，让 $SIVE 变得更有吸引力。 所以我现在认为 $SIVE 已经是低风险、高回报，而不是以前那种高风险了。 在它被宣布成为 Jabil 的光源之后，它也成了我现在高信念的小盘股。 你有 $JBL 在填补 1.6T 可插拔光模块这个巨大的空缺，而不是一直等 CPO。 然后是 $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN、$MSFT。 再然后是 Ayar -> AiChip / 其他 -> $AMZN、$MSFT、$META 等。 最后是 O-Net -> 亚洲的 CPO 供应链。 另外，我不觉得在光子超级周期里，任何收入预测都应该是准确的，因为 TAM 扩张 / 量产放大本身就会改变一切。
英文原文
Yes in my original post, I published financials. The restructuring February, made $SIVE much more highly compelling. So, I see $SIVE being more low risk, high reward. Not high-risk anymore. And it's now my high conviction small cap after they were announced as the light source for Jabil. You have $JBL bridging the MASSIVE gap for 1.6 pluggable optical transceivers, rather than waiting for CPO. Then $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN, $MSFT. Then Ayar -> AiChip/others -> $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, and others. Then onet -> Asian supply chains for CPO. Also I don't think any revenue forecasts should be accurate given TAM expansion/ramp for photonics supercycles.
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说 Win Semi 产能和良率对超大规模云供应链很关键，Jabil 不会信任一个 2.5 亿美元瑞典公司。
@LillyL464172 资本开支要求更低。 而且 Win Semi 对超大规模云供应链来说，在良率 / 放量上是非常大、也非常可信的。 我不觉得 Jabil 会信任一家 2.5 亿美元的瑞典公司去做规模化，但他们会信任 Win。
英文原文
@LillyL464172 less capex requirements. And Win Semi is massive/trustworthy for yield/ramp for hyperscalers supply chains. i dont think jabil would trust a $250m swedish company for scale, but they would with Win.
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吐槽英特尔把可插拔光收发器硅光业务低价卖给 Jabil，几年后却迎来光子周期。
$INTC 把自己的可插拔光收发器硅光子业务给卖了…… 2023 年时还低价卖给了 Jabil。 结果两三年后，光子行业却进入了超级周期。 这可能算是十年来最蠢的决定之一？ https://t.co/ITvaFR20Xq
英文原文
$INTC dumping its pluggable optical transceiver silicon photonics segment… At dirt cheap in 2023 to Jabil. When there’s now a photonics supercycle 2-3 years later. Was possibly, one of the dumbest moves of the decade? https://t.co/ITvaFR20Xq
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看好 SIVE 的非对称性，并比较其轻资产模式与 IQE 的债务压力。
我个人并不觉得它长期有太多下行风险，除了稀释之外。因为 $SIVE 是很多客户（比如 $POET、$JBL、Ayar、O-Net 等）的关键材料来源，而不是只押单一客户。 而且和 $IQE 相比，他们通过 Win Semi 这条链条更偏无晶圆厂模式，所以资本开支更轻。 反过来，$IQE 有很多债务，但也有大量资产，想要被市场强力重估，需要先重组。 这两边的风险画像完全不同，$SIVE 明显更有非对称性。 $IQE 也许有可能因为台湾出售成功而在一天内涨 2.5 倍，长期也可能像 Landmark 那样，如果他们变得更纯粹地做 InP 外延片，股价会更好看。当然，债务悬在头顶也是事实。 但我不会把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，我更喜欢押多匹有机会赢的马。
英文原文
I personally don’t see much downside risk in the long run aside from dilution since $SIVE is the light for many customers like $POET, $JBL, Ayar, O-Net, and others rather than one. And compared to $IQE they’re fabless through win semi so capex is more lightweight. $IQE on the other hand has a lot of debt, but a huge amount of assets, and requires restructuring to be strongly rerated. Risk profiles are extremely different, $SIVE definitely more assymetrical. $IQE can possibly 2.5x in a day based on a successful Taiwan sale, and over the long run like Landmark if they become more pure play inp epiwafer. But of course lot of debt overhang But I don’t put all my eggs in one basket and like to pick multiple horses that can win the race
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反对“已经计价”的说法，强调 SIVE 已获 Jabil 与 O-Net 供应链确认，仍可能被机构低位吸筹。
是的。我非常不同意那些分析师帖子里说“已经计价了”，还叫散户在 2.5 亿美元市值时获利了结的说法。 -> 在 $SIVE 被 $JBL 证实会用于他们即将推出的收发器之后。 -> 在 $SIVE 已经进入 O-Net 供应链之后。 然后在如今最大的一级光学供应商之一已经确认是 Sivers 买家的情况下，还说这是“情绪驱动”？ 再强调一次，目前这只股票大部分仍由散户持有，所以我个人认为机构是在试图从散户手里吸筹。
英文原文
Yeah. I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M. -> After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed they were using them for their upcoming transceivers. -> After $SIVE are in O-Net supply chains. Then saying it's "Sentiment Driven" after one of the largest T1 optical suppliers now is a confirmed Sivers buyer. Again, this is currently majority retail owned, so it's my opinion institutions are trying to acquire positions off retail hands.
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分析SIVE预收入仅$250M却或是超大规模数据中心未来光源，低估值蕴含巨大潜力。
今天关于 $SIVE 的一些想法，市值约 $250M： Sivers 是未来可能的共封装光学(CPO) + 激光阵列光源，为 $AMZN、$META 和 $MSFT 等超大规模数据中心提供动力。 以约 $250m 的市值... 从已确认的客户来看，估计映射如下： 1. Jabil ($JBL) LRO 光收发器（前身为 $INTC 的硅光子学业务）-> $AMZN、$META 及其他超大规模数据中心。 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN 及其他超大规模数据中心。 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> 亚洲超大规模数据中心。 4. 以及其他未确认的客户。 人们一直在问关于今天波动性的无尽问题：如果一只股票能上涨 20%，它也能下跌 20%。 $AXTI 经常出现 +30%、-30% 这样的波动（例如财报 -30% 至 $20，现在在 $60）。 就像 AXT 一样，正如你所见，重要的是它有长期跑赢大盘的潜力。 这就是为什么在进入任何交易之前形成自己的信念很重要，这样你就不需要每天问我问题了，如果你自己做了这笔交易的话。 我个人持有长仓，我真的认为 Sivers 有潜力成为市值 $5B+ 的公司，尤其是获得 Win qualification 的话。 尤其是在今天一些分析师告诉人们卖出 $SIVE 获利之后： - 如果你看 $COHR、$LITE 和其他光源公司的估值，它们现在是 $40B+。 - $SIVE 预收入先进封装 counterparties 都是 $1B-$4B+。 - 而我们有 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心供应链的未来光源和 Jabil 光收发器： 市值约 $250M。 这只是我的个人意见，但将信念锚定在市值（$250M）——作为超大规模数据中心供应链的光源——比锚定在价格波动上更好... 尤其是当机构（约 14.1% 持有）能够通过震荡多数持股的股票来建仓时。 这就是为什么我早早分享了我关于 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的想法，因为我相信散户投资者有可能抢先机构一步，抓住 AI 供应链中即将出现的瓶颈环节。 以及为什么我分享了 $SIVE 的超大规模数据中心供应链映射，这样人们可以基于未来光源增长形成自己的信念。
英文原文
My thoughts today on $SIVE, at a ~$250M MC: Sivers is the future likely CW + laser array light source powering hyperscalers from $AMZN, $META, and $MSFT. At ~$250m... From confirmed clients, est. mapping: 1. Jabil ( $JBL ) LRO Transceivers (Former SiPH $INTC) -> $AMZN, $META, and other Hyperscalers. 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN and other hyperscalers. 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> Asian Hyperscalers 4. And other unconfirmed customers. People have been asking me endless questions about today's volatility: If a stock can go up 20% it can do up 20% too. $AXTI had those +30%, -30% movements all the time (eg. Earnings -30% to $20, now at $60). And like AXT as you've seen, what matters is it has the likely potential to outperform long term. That's why it's important to develop your own conviction before entering any trade, so you don't need to ask me questions every day if you take it yourself. I personally have a long position and I do think Sivers has the potential to be a $5B+ company with Win qualification. Especially amid some analysts post today telling people to take profits on $SIVE: - If you just look at $COHR, $LITE and other light source valuations today, they're $40B+. - $SIVE pre-revenue advanced packaging counterparties are all $1B-$4B+. - And we have $SIVE as the future light source for hyperscaler supply chains and Jabil transceivers: At ~$250M. Just my personal opinion, but it's better to anchor conviction to the marketcap ($250M) as the light source for hyperscaler supply chains, than price fluctuations... Especially when institutions (~14.1% owned) are able to to shake the tree of a majority owned stock to build a position. This is why I've shared my thoughts about $AXTI or $SIVE early since I think it's possible for retail investors to frontrun institutions for the up and coming chokepoints in AI supply chains. And why I've shared hyperscaler supply chain mapping for $SIVE so people can build their own conviction on future light-source growth.
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认为不要只盯价格波动，$AXT 和 $SIVE 的长期价值仍可能非常高。
什么都没有？如果有人愿意在限价买单很少的情况下，把给 $JBL、Ayar、$MRVL Celestial 等客户供光源的公司按 2.5 亿美元市值去市价砸盘或者止损，他们当然可以这么做。 我第一次发 $AXT 时，它从 15 美元跌了 20% 到 12 美元，现在已经大概 60 美元了。 最好的办法是看市值，而不是看中途的百分比波动，因为沿途一定会有很多波动。 $SIVE 可能是我现在最喜欢的光子板块机会之一，我个人觉得如果大家 6 个月后回头看，现在的估值一定会让人拍桌子。
英文原文
Nothing? If people want to market sell/stop loss the laser supplier to $JBL, Ayar, $MRVL Celestial and others at a $250m, when there's low limit buys, they're free too. $AXT dropped 20% to $12 when I first posted it at $15 and now it's ~$60. Best thing to do is look at market cap and not the % fluctuations, since there's going to be a lot of volatility along the way. $SIVE is probably one of my favorite photonic sector opportunity right now given valuation. And I personally think if people looked back 6 months later, they'll be pounding the table at current valuations.
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认为 SIVE/SIVEF 本周大涨后仍被低估，是多家光子和云厂供应链中的关键激光源。
$SIVE <> $SIVEF 这周已经涨了 165%。 估值呢？大约 3 亿美元市值。 不过我可能是傻了，或者说 Sivers 其实就是当下光子领域最好的机会之一。 你买到的是 Jabil、Ayar、Poet（$MRVL Celestial）、O-Net 等公司的激光供应商： 而这些最终都会流向 $GOOGL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的 AI 数据中心。 市值才 3 亿美元。 今天的 EML 激光供应商，比如 $LITE 到 $COHR，作为参照都在 450 亿美元以上。 这可能是未来上游光子供应链里最不被市场理解、却又至关重要的瓶颈之一。 而市场现在才刚开始给它定价。
英文原文
$SIVE <> $SIVEF is now up 165% this week. Valuation? ~$300M MC. However; either I’m dumb or Sivers is one of the best opportunities in photonics today. You get the laser supplier for Jabil, Ayar, Poet ( $MRVL Celestial ), O-Net, and others: That end up in $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META AI datacenters. At ~$300M. The EML laser suppliers today from $LITE to $COHR for reference are $45B+ This is one of the most undiscovered yet critical bottlenecks for future upstream photonics supply chains. That markets have only starting to price in today.
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认为在 Jabil 确认采用 SIVE 作为收发器光源后，SIVE 的短期市值区间可能上修到 20-30 亿美元。
@MarcOliver_L 现在来看，近端 20-30 亿美元市值是合理的，因为 $SIVE 已经被确认会成为 Jabil 即将推出的收发器产线的光源。 所以按现在价格看，大概是 7-8 倍？之前仅基于 Ayar / O-Net / Poet 时，我还只看到 10 亿美元市值。
英文原文
@MarcOliver_L Probably near term $2-3B MC is reasonable now that $SIVE is the confirmed light source for Jabil’s upcoming transceiver line. So around 7-8x current prices? Before it was $1B MC just based off Ayar/O-Net/Poet
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澄清这是 Jabil 采用 SIVE 作为新收发器光源的全新消息，不是 Win Semi。
@MaxtheCat145 不，除非你有来源，否则这就是全新的消息：Jabil 在即将推出的收发器里使用 $SIVE 作为它的光源。 我觉得你说的是 Win Semi。
英文原文
@MaxtheCat145 No, unless you have a source this is brand new news that Jabil is using $SIVE as their light source for upcoming transceivers. I think you’re thinking of Win Semi
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认为市场还没完全意识到 Jabil 与 SIVE 的合作，约 3.1 亿美元市值可能被低估。
我觉得市场大多数人还没注意到 Jabil 和 $SIVE 的合作。 尤其是除了 OFC 会议现场流出的实物线索之外，并没有正式新闻。 我感觉，Jabil 的收发器光源按 3.1 亿美元市值来算…… 可能还低估了。 https://t.co/bAnDygPD3X
英文原文
Don’t think majority of the market picked up on the Jabil and $SIVE partnership yet. Especially since there’s no formal news, aside from physical leaks from the OFC conference*. Feel like $310M MC for Jabil’s transceiver light source… Might be underpricing it. https://t.co/bAnDygPD3X
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认为 Jabil 的规模和验证意义很大，SIVE 可能会因这条消息迅速重估到更高市值。
Jabil 体量很大，几乎给每一家超大规模云厂商供货。 这毫无疑问是 $SIVE 到目前为止最重要的消息，因为这等于给他们的光源做了超大规模云级别的验证。 Sivers 以 2.8 亿美元市值来看太便宜了，我不会惊讶它因为这条消息在短期内重估到 20 亿美元以上。
英文原文
Jabil is just massive and supplies to almost every hyperscaler. This is definitely the biggest news to date for $SIVE as this is hyperscaler-level validation for their light source. Sivers is dirt cheap at $280m, would not be surprised if it ended up $2B+ near term repricing this news.
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Sivers成为Jabil 1.6T光收发器激光光源供应商，是其在CPO/硅光子供应链中的重大突破。
Sivers <$SIVE/$SIVEF>为Jabil（270亿美元市值）<$JBL>的1.6T长距离光(LRO)收发器提供光源。 作为激光光源供应商。 这无疑是$SIVE（2.8亿美元市值）公司历史上——也是今天$NVDA GTC大会上——最大的新闻…… Jabil从$AMZN、$GOOGL和$META等终端用户那里带来约300亿美元以上的收入。 以及$NVDA、Arista、$AVGO和Cisco等OEM厂商。 尤其是在收购$INTC的硅光子(SiPh)光收发器业务后，他们在该领域已是一级供应商(Tier 1)。 Sivers为Jabil提供连续波分布反馈激光器(CW DFB laser)光源，应用于硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(CPO)及超大规模云服务商供应链： 对于一家市值仅2.8亿美元的公司来说，这是难以置信的，而且他们是光子学领域我见过的最不知名却最具潜力的公司。 $NVDA GTC的消息只是进一步巩固了这一投资论点。 我认为他们真的有机会成为下一个$LITE。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > powering Jabil ($27B MC) < $JBL > 1.6T LRO transcivers. As the laser light source. Is by far the biggest news from $NVDA GTC for Sivers ($280M MC) today... in history. Jabil brings in about $30B+ revenue from end users like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META. As well as OEMs like $NVDA, Arista, $AVGO, and Cisco. Especially after acquiring $INTC SiPH optical transceiver business, they're Tier 1 in the space. Sivers powering Jabil as the CW DFB laser source for Silicon Photonics and CPO and hyperscaler supply chains: At a $280M MC is incredible, and they're one of the most unknown yet highest potential company I've seen in the photonics sector so far. And the news from $NVDA GTC just cemented this thesis further. I think they genuinely have a shot at becoming the next $LITE.
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表示自己还想再加 SIVE，因为 Jabil 供货超大规模云厂商的验证非常关键。
@Be_nice_dot_com 我还是不太够 $SIVE……尤其是有了这个消息之后，我大概会在开盘再加一点。 $JBL 应该是这个领域最大的玩家之一，基本上给所有超大规模云厂商供货。
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@Be_nice_dot_com I don't have enough $SIVE... Especially after this news and I'll probably add more market open. $JBL is probably one of the largest players in this space and basically supply to all the hyperscalers.
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博主认为SIVE成为Jabil光源供应商的消息将驱动SIVE股价大幅重新估值。
@mrsgayathridas 关于$IBKR的看法。$SIVE成为$JBL的光源这个新公告可能是迄今为止最大的新闻。我预计这只股票将因这个消息而获得巨大的重新估值。Jabil为$GOOGL、$META、$AMZN、$MSFT提供光收发器。他们是一个巨头的存在。
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@mrsgayathridas $IBKR. The new announcement $SIVE is the light source for $JBL is probably biggest news to date. And I expect the stock to get re-rated immensely from the news. Jabil powers $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT for optical transceivers. They’re a huge player.
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Sivers被指定为Jabil 1.6T光收发器光源供应商，验证其CPO/硅光子学光源论点
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > 将为 Jabil ($JBL) 的下一代光收发器提供动力。 Sivers 被指定为 Jabil 旗舰 1.6T 模块的光源供应商…… 这可能是迄今为止最大的新闻？ 这验证了 Sivers 作为共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学光源的下一个 $LITE 的论点。 来源：Semicap，$NVDA GTC。
英文原文
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF >to power Jabil ( $JBL ) next-generation optical transceivers. The fact Sivers is named as the power source for Jabil's flagship 1.6T module… is probably the biggest news to date? This is thesis validation that Sivers is the next $LITE as the light source for CPO/Silicon Photonics. Source: Semicap, $NVDA GTC.
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补充AI供应链受益股并增加AMKR持仓
@B38B37 是的，内存也是。还需要补充联发科（I/O 芯片let）、$CLS、$JBL 和 $AMKR（TPU v7 模块封装的第二供应商）作为受益者。这正好说明了供应链的规模有多大。另外，正如 @Mexicancik1 提到的，我也增加了 $AMKR 的头寸。
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@B38B37 Yeah memory is. Also needed to add MediaTek( I/o chiplet), $CLS, $JBL, and $AMKR (second source for packaging the TPU v7 modules) up there as beneficiaries. Just goes to show how large the supply chain is. Also adding positions in $AMKR as @Mexicancik1 mentioned.