$JBL
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Sivers获行业认可，产能升级跻身T1梯队，并与中国厂商合作。
顺便提一下，$SIVE 在 Digitimes 上也有报道，这值得赞赏，表明其在瑞典之外获得了行业认可。我认为 Sivers 建设 1 亿+ 连续波分布反馈 (CW DFB) 激光器产能，迫使行业重新审视其模型，并带来了更多的关注。因为它如果顺利实现产能爬坡，将使 Sivers 进入与 $COHR、住友、古河、$AVGO、Landmark 和 $LITE 并列的 T1 激光器产能讨论中。除此之外，2026 年 CIOE 的渠道调研非常有意义，因为业界发现 Sivers 正在与中国可插拔光模块厂商合作，并在当地设立办公室。这让我想起当初我在 OFC 指出 $SIVE 和 $JBL 在 1.6T 长距光模块 (LRO) 上的合作时，没人相信这种联系，直到官方发布新闻稿。总之，很高兴看到这家小公司茁壮成长。
英文原文
$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release. Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up
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指出市场忽视SIVE在CPO激光器的地位，且过度聚焦可插拔模块。
@dockery58 是的，共封装光学(CPO)的出货量甚至还没开始……大家都忘了 $SIVE 是主要的 CPO 激光器供应商，因为管理层过于聚焦无线/5G/固定无线接入(FWA)/卫星通信。像 $JBL 这样的可插拔模块(Pluggables)本应是 2028 年 CPO 放量的过渡桥梁，但不知为何成了主导焦点。
英文原文
@dockery58 Yeah, CPO volumes haven’t even started… everyone forgot that $SIVE was a major CPO laser supplier because management focused so much around wireless/5g/fwa/satcom. Pluggables like $JBL were supposed to be the bridge for 2028 CPO ramp but somehow became the dominant focus.
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SIVERS 运营理想但沟通糟糕致股价大跌，属执行失败。
@halldj00 @wannabepanacea 两者皆有，主要围绕沟通。运营层面看起来理想，拥有捷普(Jabil)、格芯(GlobalFoundries)、Ayar 以及约 6 个可插拔模块项目，且在重大瓶颈期拥有 2 个晶圆厂产能。$JBL 的时间线符合我的预期。但沟通重点集中在短期无线/收入+财务数据以安抚当地投资者，而非共封装光学(CPO)等其他重大未来经济机会。沟通也非常糟糕且含糊其辞，尤其是与两个月前相比，关于纳斯达克上市(Nasdaq listing)的表述。这是我非常不满的唯一实质性延误，因为尽管完成了 57 亿瑞典克朗的机构融资轮，这仍属于执行失败。CFO 添加的法律措辞毫无理由地引入了不确定性，而此前并无多少不确定性。市场毫不犹豫地让 $SIVERS 股价因这种愚蠢的规避措辞下跌 28%。
英文原文
@halldj00 @wannabepanacea Bit of both, mainly around communication. Operationally things look ideal, they have Jabil, globalfoundries, Ayar, and ~6 pluggable engagements, with 2 foundry capacity during a major bottleneck. $JBL timelines were in line with what I expected. But communication focused around focused on near term wireless/revenue + financials to appease local investors. Instead of significant future economic opportunities for CPO/others. Communication was also horrendous and noncommittal, especially around Nasdaq listing compared to two months ago. This was the only material delay I’m very unhappy with, since it’s an execution failure despite having the 57 SEK institutional fundraising round. And the legal language that the CFO added just introduces uncertainty for no reason, when there wasn’t much before then. Market definitely not hestitate sending sivers down 28% from that stupid language hedging
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SIVE受CW激光瓶颈利好，有望从瓶颈供应商成长为光学巨头。
@wannabepanacea 目前我所见的是由沟通失误和噪音引发的市场波动。论点破位的情况会是：1. 晶圆代工产能分配出现问题，因为这会影响供应。（但他们现在有两家）。2. 或者资格认证失败。（他们发出了上半年 $JBL 订单的信号，但还需观察）。从根本上说，我认为在 CW 激光（连续波激光）瓶颈期间，$SIVE 处于绝佳位置。我也看到 Sivers 有潜力成为更大的光学巨头，而不仅仅是关键的瓶颈供应商……这就是为什么我更关注公司的方向。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea So far, what I've seen is market volatility stemming from communication failures and noise. Thesis break would be 1. issues with their foundry allocations, since that would affect supply. (But they have 2 now). 2. Or failing qualifications. (they signaled $JBL orders for H1, but we'll see). Fundamentally I think $SIVE is in an amazing spot during a CW laser bottleneck. I also see more potential for Sivers to become a larger optical giant rather than remain just a chokepoint supplier... which is why I focus on company direction a lot more.
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总结SIVE基本面，批评其沟通策略，看好其作为CPO激光供应商的高增长潜力。
以下是我对 $SIVE 来自 ER 的观点与基本面的最终总结： 2027年可插拔光模块（1.6T 爬坡）： - $JBL（1.6T LRO，已确认）2027年上半年订单，下半年爬坡 -> -> 可能有多家超大规模云厂商客户 - 3家可插拔制造商（评估中） - 3家可插拔制造商（供应评估中） 2027年下半年至2028年+的参考设计： - $GFS（格芯）SCALE（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD 和其他超大规模云厂商作为共封装光学(CPO)客户 2027年外部光源/光引擎： - $POET（已确认） -> -> Lumilens / 超大规模云厂商终端用户 - O-Net（已确认） -> -> 超大规模云厂商+亚洲地区的巨大ODM/OEM - 可能包括 $AEVA（映射） -> -> 向光引擎供应 -> 超大规模云厂商/激光雷达 - SemiNex（已确认） 2028年光I/O： - Ayar Labs（已确认） -> -> 可能包括 $AMD、ALchip 和超大规模云厂商ASIC项目终端用户 + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightmatter（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） - Lightelligence（2023-2024年披露的潜在客户） 随后可能在2028年为 $AAPL 下一代可穿戴设备更新及其他来自 TFLN 与 Lightium 的项目供货。 关于产能分配： - Win Semi - 1家其他晶圆厂（拥有巨大分配量） 在磷化铟(InP)连续波(CW)DFB激光器短缺期间。 这些都是持续的发展/资格认证，因为 Sivers 正瞄准2027-2028年的下一代硅光(SiPH)+CW以及1.6T和CPO。 尤其是高盛模型显示CPO机会将从目前的近乎零增长到2028年约910亿美元的市场规模(TAM)。 然而我的批评是： => 主要焦点未向西方受众传达2027-2028年光学爬坡的经济规模。 => 应停止围绕纳斯达克上市的模糊法律帖子，并设定明确方向+更快执行。 => 过多关注于辩护较小的当前收入/过去十二个月(TTM)收入/管道转化（allspace, Tachyon），相对于未来的资格/合作伙伴规模/产能/潜力。 $SIVE 需要将自己定位为一家面向未来的、全球高增长的光学公司，为超大规模云厂商项目供应激光器。 不要让叙事被向后看的指标主导。 正如摩根士丹利所言……“关键[CPO]参与者包括……$LITE、$COHR 和 Sivers 激光供应”。 我个人是 $SIVE 的愉快股东，以高贝塔值暴露于2027-2028年的1.6T/CPO光学变革。
英文原文
Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar - SemiNex (confirmed) Optical I/O for 2028: - Ayar Labs (confirmed) -> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink - $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) - Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures) Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium. In terms of capacity allocations: - Win Semi - 1 other foundry (with tremendous allocations) during an InP CW DFB laser shortage. These are all on-going developments/qualifications since Sivers is targeting next-generation SiPH + CW with 1.6T and CPO for 2027-2028. Especially as Goldman Sachs models the CPO opportunity going from effectively near-zero today to ~$91B TAM by 2028. However my criticisms were: => Main focus was not on communicating economic scale of 2027-2028 optical ramps to Western audiences. => Legal vagueposts around NASDAQ listing should be dropped, and clear direction should be set + executed faster on. =>Too much focus was put on defending smaller current revenue/TTM revenue/pipeline conversion (allspace, Tachyon.) relative to future qualifications/partner size/capacity/potential. $SIVE needs to position themselves as a forward looking, global hypergrowth optical company supplying lasers to hyperscaler programs. And not let the narrative get dominated by backward looking metrics. And as Morgan Stanley put it... "Key [CPO] participants include … $LITE, $COHR, and Sivers laser supply". I'm personally a happy $SIVE shareholder for high-beta exposure to the next 2027-2028 optical shift with 1.6T/CPO.
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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建议用资格认证爬坡和晶圆产能而非管道收入来预测JBL营收。
@dBooray @SoundResponse 我使用“管道收入”(pipeline revenue) 来评估其客户质量相对于此前管道收入预估的情况。例如，$JBL / $GFS 第一季度超过 7 亿美元，而第二季度增加了 6 家可插拔(pluggable)合作伙伴。这并非进行收入预测的理想指标，因为我认为一旦他们扩展产品线（例如向下游延伸至光引擎或完整可插拔模块），其可寻址市场(AM)和爬坡(ramp)表现会好得多。在此期间，我认为追踪 $JBL 的资格认证(qualification)爬坡以及建模为收入的晶圆产能，并假设在短缺情况下能售出，是更好的方法。
英文原文
@dBooray @SoundResponse I use pipeline revenue as a measure est. quality of their customers relative to previous pipeline revenue estimates. Eg. Q1 $JBL / $GFS $700M+, vs. Q2. 6 pluggable partners added. Not really a good figure to go off for revenue projections, since I’d expect addressable market + ramp to be much better once they expand product lines (eg. More downstream into optical engines or complete pluggables). In the meantime I think it’s better to track $JBL / qualification ramps and wafer capacity modeled into revenue, and assume it gets sold given shortages.
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Sivers凭借激光器产能优势，在供应短缺中获大厂青睐，前景看好。
我看待 $SIVE 的角度如下： 公司/云服务提供商(CSP) 不遗余力地锁定光模块用 CW 激光器产能。 因此，Sivers 带着以下优势进入行业： - 来自 Win Semi 的大规模产能 - 来自新晶圆厂（可能自 2024 年起已进行资格认证）的“目前可用的巨大产能”，因其已合作“一段时间” 此次财报中让我兴奋的是“6 个可插拔/模块”项目（数量巨大）。 我解读的细微差别是： - $COHR 称因内部光模块需求耗尽所有产能，短期内无法对外销售 InP 激光器 - $AAOI 也表示内部消耗了激光器产能（此前并非主要独立供应商） - $LITE 受瓶颈限制，一直在公开市场购买激光器 你之前的独立供应商已将激光器产能转向内部。 因此许多大厂（如 Eoptolink/Innolight 仅为举例）可能正寻求更多激光器来源。 这也符合“具备快速资格认证和爬坡能力”的说法（这与 Series B 初创企业不符）... 很多人问为什么没有到 2030 年的长期协议(LTA)？ -> 你无法随意绕过成熟玩家已完成的资格认证流程。 为何不披露客户？ 正如 $MRVL + $POET 合作所示，你不能随意披露合作供应商。 但“12 亿美元机会管道”几乎翻倍，相对于 $JBL + $GFS 的增幅。这信号表明新的可插拔项目可能比 Jabil 更实质。 因此，如果 $SIVE 在供应短缺期间带来海量 CW DFB 激光器产能... 行业条件已发生重大变化，提高了项目转化率。 加上所有~估算客户 jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (可能 lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 家其他可插拔玩家等。 我认为连点成线后，Sivers 将大获成功。
英文原文
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.
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博主认为 $SIVE 凭借广泛的光子学客户验证和稀缺产能，是极具性价比的首选标的。
不，$SIVE 是我见过的最独特的 10 亿美元市值光子学公司。仅针对 AI 数据中心： - 为 $GFS SCALE（共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块）提供参考激光器 - 披露了 7 项可插拔模块合作，其中 $JBL 为主要放量客户（H1 2027 时间表） - 与 O-Net 的外部激光源(ELS)路径 - 与 $POET 的 ELS 路径 - 向 Ayar 提供用于 CPO I/O 的激光器（现属 $NVDA nvlink 生态系统） - 为 $AEVA 提供激光器（其已与超大规模云厂商的光引擎供应商达成 NPO 协议） - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence（可能是 2023/2024 年的客户） - 与 Lightium 合作在薄膜铌酸锂(TFLN)上集成磷化铟(InP)激光器 此外，它在行业短缺期间拥有两项实质性的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器产能分配。也是业内少数几家 CPO 级激光器供应商之一。告诉我这个市值范围内还有哪家拥有如此多的持续资格认证、巨大的潜在市场(TAM)且身处光子学领域。就相对于行业内的资格认证路径而言，$SIVE 是我心中的第一选择。
英文原文
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry. Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics. $SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
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驳斥激光供应充裕论，指出市场误解认证周期玩家。
@Kr_Soze 我从未见过有人在瓶颈期声称激光供应有“对 Sivers 的‘巨大产能分配’……‘立即可用’”。 并且披露除了 $JBL 之外还与 6 家新的可插拔(pluggable)制造商合作（共 7 家）。 “表现糟糕”。我认为像你这样的人大多只是误解了如何评估资格认证周期(qualification cycle)的玩家。
英文原文
@Kr_Soze I've never seen someone say new "tremendous capacity allocation for Sivers" for laser supply... "available now" during a bottleneck. And a disclosure working with 6 new pluggable manufacturers beyond $JBL (so 7). "was awful". Think majority of people like yourself just misunderstand evaluating qualification cycle players.
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CW激光器瓶颈持续，多厂商产能与新技术进展令博主基本面看好。
CW（连续波）激光器瓶颈持续存在。 -> 2家晶圆厂（Win + 另一主要玩家）为 $SIVE 提供大量产能 -> $JBL 明确的爬坡时间表 - 6家新的可插拔光模块厂商处于评估/后期讨论阶段，带来近期机会 -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (可能包括 Celestial + 其他 CPO 共封装光学玩家)。 -> 甚至未包含他们与 TFLN 等其他技术合作的工作。 对此我基本面非常看好。
英文原文
Massive CW laser bottleneck ongoing. -> 2 foundries (Win + another major player) with substantial capacity for $SIVE -> $JBL clear ramp timing - 6 new pluggable players in eval/later stage disc for near term opportunities -> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (potentially Celestial + other CPO players). -> not even including the other work they do with TFLN and others. I'm very positive fundamentally after this.
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SIVE获新晶圆产能及6家新客户，解决CW激光器瓶颈，博主看多。
$SIVE 财报电话会纪要刚出，简而言之： - 现在有6家新的可插拔模块厂商正在与 Sivers 合作。 这可能是继新晶圆厂产能分配之外，本次财报最大的新闻。 “3家处于Alpha样品评估阶段”，另外3家处于技术对接/供应评估阶段。” 这也解释了为什么他们12亿美元的营收管道大幅膨胀（因为这次飞跃比 Jabil 更大）。 - 预计与 $JBL 的初始生产订单将在2027年上半年下达，量产爬坡计划于2027年下半年进行。 冲啊，Jabil 是巨大的超大规模客户供应商，终于有了明确的量产营收时间表。 - “新的晶圆厂合作伙伴带来了现已可用的巨大产能” 这正是我想听到的。显然他们为此筹备已久，因为产能“现已可用”，这非常关键。 连续波激光器(CW lasers)严重短缺，而 $SIVE 引入了 Win Semi 之外的新供应源（也降低了风险）。 正如你从其他合格的 CW 厂商那里听到的（他们生产的任何东西都能卖光），随着 Sivers 的合作伙伴完成资格认证，我预计情况会相同。 - “长期产能模型中，三分之一的制造产能将内部化，而三分之二来自我们的晶圆厂合作伙伴” 对此反应冷淡，虽然他们最终需要像 $AAOI / $LITE 那样垂直整合是有道理的，但这意味着更多的资本支出（最好在纳斯达克上市后再进行）。 正如你在 ESMT + DDR2 瓶颈中看到的，仅在短缺期间通过无晶圆厂模式确保晶圆所带来的营业利润是惊人的。 而且用未来的现金流来资助这一点会更合理。 - 纳斯达克上市正在进行中。CFO 给出了非常像律师的回答，但一如既往地在正轨上。 - “我们目前不认为生产能力是瓶颈” 这很有意义，因为随着新的晶圆厂合作伙伴加入，意味着 $SIVE 正在为一个瓶颈市场中提供非常关键的 CW 激光器供应。 简而言之： - 新的实质性晶圆厂产能分配！（在 CW 激光器短缺期间非常、非常关键） - 除了 $JBL 之外的6家新可插拔模块厂商 - 来自 Jabil 的明确营收爬坡时间表 对可插拔模块 -> 非平面光学(NPO) -> 共封装光学(CPO) 的重点关注似乎是演进路径。唯一反应冷淡的是建立内部产能，但长期来看是积极的。 总之，读完纪要后我非常高兴，除了可能优先投资激光器产能而非 IP 收购（这在行业短缺期间也是可以接受的）。 6家新的可插拔模块厂商 + “现已可用”的实质性晶圆分配，这是一个相当惊人的披露。
英文原文
$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR: - 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now. Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations. "3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage." And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil). - Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027 LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp. - "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now" This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL. CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks). As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same. - "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners" Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing). As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible. And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road. - NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual. - "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time" This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market. TLDR: - NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage) - 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL - Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive. Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition. The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.
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SIVE是GFS和Ayar激光供应商，1.6T/CPO量产需待JBL等通过认证。
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS 将 $SIVE 作为其参考激光设计，并展示其为共封装光学(CPO)/近封装光学(NPO)/可插拔模块在 GFS 规模化时的激光供应商。Ayar（领先的 CPO 玩家）也将 $SIVE 列为其主要激光供应商。再次强调，所有这些较新的 1.6T 和 CPO（规模化扩展）架构将在 2027/2028 年量产，如果像 $JBL 这样的厂商尚未通过超大规模客户认证，很难提供具体的量产合同/预测。
英文原文
@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS has $SIVE as their reference laser design and showcased them as a laser supplier for CPO/NPO/pluggables for GFS scale. Ayar (leading CPO player) has $SIVE listed as their primary laser supplier. Again all these newer 1.6T and CPO (scale up) architectures ramp in 2027/2028, it's hard to provide concrete volume contracts/projections if players like $JBL haven't qualification with their hyperscaler customers.
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分析师关注超大规模客户供应链及上游瓶颈，而非争论机会管道。
@nimishx KPI 一直是一致的。它只是产能爬坡情况的指标。分析师主要关注的是其超大规模客户供应商，如 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及其他可插拔/共封装光学(CPO)合作伙伴。以及它们的计划如何扩展，而 $SIVE 处于上游。这比争论机会管道意味着什么更有意义。
英文原文
@nimishx KPI has always been the consistent. It's just an indicator of how things would ramp. Main thing analysts look at are their hyperscaler suppliers like $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and other pluggable/CPO partners. And how their programs scale, with $SIVE sitting upstream. Rather than trying to argue with what opportunity pipelines mean.
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LPK因GCS延迟推迟，SIVE供应1.6T/CPO激光器，架构预计27-28年落地。
@whatdahellson 情况略有不同，鉴于三星电机/SKC Absolics 等行业光组件(GCS)的延迟，$LPK 的收入可能已被推迟。 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 长距光学(LRO)、Ayar 共封装光学(CPO)及其他厂商的激光器供应商。 1.6T/CPO 并没有出现可信的延迟，只是在等待资格认证完成以便批量合同下达。这些架构将在 2027-2028 年落地。
英文原文
@whatdahellson It's slightly different since $LPK revenue has likely been delayed given industry GCS delays with Samsung Electro-mechanics/SKC Absolics $SIVE is the laser supplier to $JBL 1.6T LRO, Ayar for CPO, and others. There's been no credible delays to 1.6T/CPO, it's just waiting for their qualifications to finish before volume contracts flow. Those architectures are 2027-2028.
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展望SIVE财报，重点关注光子学合作进展、JBL量产及纳斯达克上市计划。
很多人都在关注两天后 $SIVE 的财报。 我关注的重点： 1. 我希望看到更多关于光子学联合开发/认证/合同的可见性。 -> $AAOI 表示多家客户向他们咨询共封装光学(CPO)激光器（但不得不拒绝） -> $MTSI 表示许多客户咨询连续波(CW)产能（但要到2027年下半年才能上线） 所以请仔细阅读关于一家作为 $GFS 参考激光器供应商、为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块（如Intel Siph）、为Ayar提供CPO的公司。 并且处于独立供应商地位： -> 拥有独立的CW DFB供应（与Win semi合作） -> CPO级激光器。 如果有更多客户接近Sivers，这将是非常积极的信号。 2. 持续进展转化为量产 -> 我最兴奋的是 $JBL，这可能是2027年上半年主要的收入增长来源。 -> $AEVA 相比之下可能小得多，但应在2026年下半年有所贡献。 -> Ayar和光I/O玩家已表示2028年才大规模量产(HVM)，所以那里不太期待。 -> 其他可插拔玩家（来自上一份财报）的联合开发转化为认证->量产。 除此之外： 3. 纳斯达克上市 -> 我们已经得到了“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以不再需要进一步细化。得到更新总是好的。 4. 财务数据 -> 再次强调，对于处于认证周期的玩家，当前财务数据不是重点。提醒一下，本季度有一些一次性会计处理，这在表面上会影响数据。 主要看点是未来季度的量产爬坡。 -> 收入管道增加 -> 签署的任何早期量产合同 鉴于最近7000万美元的融资+自举稀释压力消除，资产负债表担忧应该已经消除。 额外惊喜： -> 关于已确保的配额的信息“例如，我们确保了大量的CW产能->鉴于当前的短缺，这将是极高的信号。 -> 重申AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent提到的需求。“例如，我们获得的任何产能都将被需求填满” $AAOI 在表示2027年预计产能约4.71亿美元并重申收入指引后，股价从30美元暴涨至220美元（但随后进行了大量定向增发ATM）。 如果Sivers能给出一个雄心勃勃的多头案例+未来时间表（如2028年上半年）的满产能收入声明，那将很好，但不强求。 进一步的重新评级将有助于通过类似Cloud Light的并购来加速未来财报的收入。 显然Sivers有其他量产爬坡，但我认为光子学是市场主要定价的部分。 无论如何，对即将到来的事情感到兴奋。
英文原文
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
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Ayar等巨头选用Sivers激光器，验证其供应链核心地位。
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 好问题，主要是关于 $SIVE 的第三方评论+行动。Ayar 可能对我而言信息量最大，他们从官网供应链板块移除了 $LITE / $MTSI，仅单独展示 Sivers 作为激光器供应商。Ayar 副总裁也称 Sivers 是“赋能我们光学 I/O 解决方案的关键”，这是相当强烈的看多信号。还有 $JBL 在选定 Sivers 后构建了 1.6T LRO（长距光学），这非常罕见，并在一次壁炉对话中炫耀其技术护城河。$GFS 也选择 Sivers 作为参考激光器并在演示文稿中展示。感觉所有领先玩家都在因某种原因推进 Sivers？我假设这些领先公司做了尽职调查(DD)。
英文原文
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD
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看好 $SIVE 作为高贝塔光通信标的，受益于激光器瓶颈及潜在并购。
@Blazedsin 是的，$SIVE 是我首选的高贝塔（High-Beta）光通信多头标的。 这是一家小型公司，为以下领域供应激光器： - 像 $JBL 这样提供可插拔模块的可插拔模块供应商。 - 与 $POET / O-Net 合作的外部光引擎（ELS）+ 光引擎。 - 与 Ayar 等公司合作的光 I/O 扩展。 - 像 $GFS 这样的光子代工（Photonic Foundries），涵盖 NPO/可插拔/CPO 等所有架构。 随着 Win Semi 的独立连续波（CW）产能投产，正值结构性瓶颈期……纳斯达克上市可能在接下来几个季度实现。 而且 CEO 确实懂行 + 与股东利益一致（在二级市场买入股票），稀释程度低就能完成这一切。 他们还暗示了并购（M&A），这对总可寻址市场（TAM）扩张很理想（看看 2023 年下半年 Cloud Light 并购 Lumentum 后发生了什么）。 然后你有 $MTSI，$AAOI 可能不会实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署（参与者池较小）……行业目前面临连续波（CW）短缺，随后才是量产爬坡。针对中国竞争的监管顺风。 我不确定是不是只有我觉得，他们拥有理想的布局，主要缺点是仅在某个小型瑞典交易所上市，这损害了估值。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yeah, $SIVE is my favorite high-beta optical long. You have a small company supplying lasers for: - Hyperscaler suppliers like $JBL with pluggables. - ELS + optical engines with $POET / O-Net. - Scale up with optical I/O with Ayar and others. - Photonic Foundries like $GFS across all architectures like NPO/pluggables/CPO. with independent CW capacity coming online with Win Semi during a structural bottleneck... NASDAQ listing likely in the next few quarters. And the CEO actually knows what he's doing + aligned with shareholders (in terms of buying stock on the open market), with low dilution to get all of this done. And they hinted at M&A, which is ideal for TAM expansion (look at what happened with Lumentum after Cloud Light H2 2023 M&A). Then you have $MTSI, $AAOI likely no meaningful participating in first-gen CPO deployments (smaller pool of players)... Industry CW shortages currently before volume ramp. Regulation tailwinds targeting Chinese competition. I'm not sure if it's just me but they have the ideal setup, main downside is that it's just listed on some small Swedish exchange and that harms valuations.
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反驳对SIVE的质疑，强调其IP模式独特性及在CPO领域的长期潜力。
@Malinrec - 因为新一代 1.6T 光收发器(1.6T optical transceivers)和共封装光学(CPO)的出货量尚未爬坡。$SIVE 正瞄准所有下一代光学变革。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署始于 2028 年，你不可能在 2024 年获得 9 位数收入。 - $SIVE 拥有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错，其中 1/4 到 1/3 是博士。 他们做的很多是知识产权(IP)，并使用 Win Semi 和外部晶圆厂进行量产爬坡。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，你会看到员工数量激增。 不太明白为什么你说一个向 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 和许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是毫无希望的案例。 这可能是我见过的最独特的案例之一。
英文原文
@Malinrec - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.
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看好SIVE获代工产能及上市融资，预期2027H1收入拐点。
@wannabepanacea 鉴于目前业界普遍传闻共封装光学(CPO)中的分布式反馈激光器(DFB)短缺，我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能否获得更多晶圆代工产能分配。因为我相当确信，一旦其资格认证进入量产爬坡阶段，产品就会售罄。除此之外： > 其他财报（如 $MTSI / $AAOI）重申的需求/供应失衡有助于佐证这一点。 > 上一份财报中提到的与可插拔(Pluggable)玩家的新进展/资格认证，可能是影响最大的因素。 > 与 $JBL、~ $AEVA、$POET、$GFS 或其他机会的进展，如果能获得初步采购订单(PO)那就太好了。 > 重申纳斯达克上市更新（我们已经得到消息，计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍将此列为优先事项，因为它能为其并购(M&A)活动解锁更多资金，希望用于可插拔技术栈。 我认为收入拐点大约在 2027 年上半年开始，因此当前的收入/利润数据并不重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发表类似“我们制造的任何东西都预计在 2028 年售罄”的声明，那就太棒了。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
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AAOI财报验证光模块需求远超供应，产能爬坡中，看好板块传导。
以下是关于 $AAOI 财报的简要要点： - 预计超大规模客户将在未来几周内完成 1.6T 产品的全面认证（有助于收入爬坡 #2，时间线） - 继续认为 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心光收发器产能（在竞争对手可能被禁时期重申雄心） - 预计磷化铟(InP)产能设施将于 2027 年初投产（进一步爬坡的时间线参考） - 总产能接近每月 20 万颗/单位，年底 800G/1.6T 达 65 万颗/单位。2027 年底达 93 万颗/单位（这是我想要看到的爬坡） - “增加外部光源(ELSFP)的制造产能。这是用于共封装光学(CPO)的”。我们预计今年晚些时候及 2027 年扩大生产，最终在 2028 年达到每月约 40 万件（需要时间将其建模为收入） - “如前所述，我们多年来一直内部制造激光器。这使我们避免了影响行业其他公司的短缺”（CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合看多逻辑） - 我们相信未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器的需求增加（CPO 板块论点验证） - “长期目标是将非公认会计准则毛利率恢复到 40% 左右” - “第二季度末现金等价物总计 5.088 亿美元” 我需要再次确认 ATM 是否完成 - “我们交付收入的能力，特别是 800G 产品，目前受限于我们的生产能力”“如果我们能生产更多，我们现在就能发货更多” 需求 > 供应验证。 - “大部分增加的产能将在美国。即便如此，让我说，正如我一直强调的，这还不足以应对客户需求。客户需求高出 20%-40%。” 整个板块的光子学需求验证惊人，阅读 $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL 等公司的传导效应令人惊叹。 - “在未来两三年内不会，尤其是需求如此之大。好吧？即使结合 AI，$LITE, $COHR, $AVGO 加在一起，未来几年满足客户需求仍然非常困难” 更多光通信板块需求验证。 - CPO 时间线：“如果你说的是 CPO 市场的高产量制造商，我会说是明年第三季度末左右”以及“我们已与至少五家客户密切合作” 如果你关心当前财报（我并没有仔细看） 营收：1.91 亿美元 vs 1.90 亿美元 每股收益：0.06 美元 vs 0.02 美元 简而言之：激光器 + 光通信板块需求传导非凡。某种程度上支持 Lumentum CEO 关于激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重的说法。 2027 年产能爬坡按计划进行。要映射拐点期与时间线，大约在明年年初，正如他们之前的财报电话会议所述。 AAOI 现在拥有客户。限制在于制造足够的激光器和收发器。
英文原文
Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.
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禁令利好西方光模块厂商，AAOI等1.6T+玩家受益。
@Lseperlee 对我来说，$AAOI 是 2027 年上半年末的放量玩家，因为大约那时他们将达到每月 4.71 亿美元营收预测的拐点。近期起草的禁止英诺赛科(Innolight)等公司新光模块的光模块禁令，增加了 $AAOI、$SIVE/$JBL、$LITE、$COHR 等公司在 1.6T+ 项目上的权重。尤其是如果该禁令在 2026 年最终确定。由于可能会出现价格上涨，且需求将更集中于少数西方玩家产能。
英文原文
@Lseperlee $AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections. Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their 1.6T+ programs as well. Especially if finalized in 2026. Since there's likely going to be price hikes, and more demand concentration over capacity from the select few Western players.
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POET与Sivers合作加速，2027H1订单落地，验证CPO等新技术拐点临近。
仔细想想，$POET 的光学中介层（optical interposer）业务与 $SIVE 的关联比我想象的更重要。起初措辞是2026年底的“准备就绪”，但 $POET 将其升级为与 Sivers 激光器合作的“量产”，预计2026年底实现。因此，从 $JBL 到 $POET 的批量订单应在2027年上半年落地。这很合理，因为 Sivers 已完成超认购的机构轮融资以支持未来大规模生产。顺便一提，难以置信已是八月，距2027年仅剩5个月……这是我预判玻璃基板、共封装光学(CPO)、800V 及新架构开始放量的拐点窗口。
英文原文
Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production. On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.
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SIVE CEO称可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO为行业方向，激光器产能是瓶颈。
不完全适用于 $AAOI（他们也在研发共封装光学(CPO)，只是商业化进度稍落后）。 最近有一档名为“市场洞察：光子学与AI”的播客采访了 $SIVE 的CEO。 最有趣的观点是： “可插拔光模块在未来10年仍将存在”。 近期有很多关于CPO和RNG/MRC优化将蚕食可插拔模块总可寻址市场(TAM)的论点，但看来可插拔模块将长期存在。 而且未来会有多种架构路径并行（CEO也表示，除了CPO，非平面光学(NPO)在未来5年也是主要机会）。 至于挑战：Vickram表示，制造产能和原材料供应是主要瓶颈。这可能指的是上游连续波(CW)激光器扩产面临的现有瓶颈。 从播客来看，重点似乎放在可插拔市场，因为其短期TAM更大（考虑到 $JBL 和其他玩家，这可以理解），而CPO则是行业发展的北极星指标。 因此，如果 $SIVE 能通过并购获取更多可插拔光收发器IP（就像 $LITE 收购Cloud Light那样），可能会很有趣。 但简而言之： 未来路径多样，可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO似乎是行业发展的北极星方向。 感觉鉴于行业需求增长速度快于所有供应商的集体产能，合格的激光器供应商都有生存空间。
英文原文
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
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SIVE轻晶圆厂产能模型显示高毛利潜力，CW瓶颈加剧利好，看好其CPO地位及并购上行空间。
很多人对 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi 等）进行产能爬坡建模感到好奇： 假设使用 Win 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端配置（65% 良率假设，$50-$75 ASP）： Sivers 将支撑 $3.41 亿-$5.12 亿的年度阵列营收。鉴于管理层 50-60%+ 毛利率目标的上限，大致为： $2.05 亿-$3.07 亿的年度毛利润。 相对于 Sivers 当前约 $11 亿的市场资本化，若此产能情景在 2028 年实现，约为： 3.6–5.4 倍 市值/毛利润。 若按 15% 计算，毛利润为 $3.07 亿-$4.61 亿（2.4–3.6 倍 市值/毛利润）。 Sivers CEO 也回复称他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以获取产能。从旧版演示文稿看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的资格认证。 因此，随着共封装光学(CPO) 的兴起，产能目标可能比此处陈述的更大。 我也预计未来季度营收管道预测将上调，因为更多合格供应商进入大规模量产(HVM)。 _ 至于需求端，连续波(CW) 激光器也非常瓶颈。 Lumentum 因 ER 财报电话会议中的外延面激光二极管(EML) 义务，正在公开市场购买 CW 激光器。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议(LTA) 以锁定 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET 等合作爬坡时... 鉴于当前的限制，任何上线的独立合格产能很可能被吸收。 锦上添花的是，摩根士丹利将 $SIVE (~$11 亿) 列为三大领先 CPO 激光器玩家之一。 与其近期笔记中 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，是有原因的... _ 总结：Sivers 仅需 Win 的低端配置，相对于当前估值即可产生可观的毛利润。 我认为最大的未建模营收上行空间在于美国纳斯达克上市后的 TAM 扩张与并购。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的剧本，构建整个收发器模块或光引擎。
英文原文
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
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三菱汽车联手Highlanders，多家车企加速布局人形机器人供应链。
三菱汽车加入机器人竞赛，计划于 2027 年部署人形机器人工人。与日本机器人公司 Highlanders 合作。- Agility $CCXI x 富士康、丰田 - Apptronik x $JBL、梅赛德斯 - Highlanders x 三菱 - Figure x 宝马 - 波士顿动力 x 现代（子公司） https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG
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Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG
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建议通过合作伙伴JBL的LRO认证进度来映射SIVE的业务进展。
@Emre07465060084 对于这种与 $SIVE 相关的映射，查看其合作伙伴及其时间表是个好主意。 - $JBL 通过摩根大通(JPM)壁炉边访谈确认，他们在 1.6T 长距光模块(LRO)方面拥有相对显著的护城河，并且正在进行的资格认证将在未来 1-4 个月内完成（2 个月前）。所以应该是 https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
英文原文
@Emre07465060084 For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
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看好$SIVE，因其作为激光供应商地位稳固且计划上市并购。
@FaceHonor $SIVE 大概是我目前最看好的股票，我不担心短期下跌。 - 你是 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模客户供应商的激光供应商。 - 计划在未来几个季度在纳斯达克上市。 - 随后将通过并购(M&A)目标来扩大总可服务市场(TAM)。
英文原文
@FaceHonor $SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion.
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博主认为SIVE将成下一个LITE，列举其量产与合作进展。
我个人认为 $SIVE 有望成为下一个 $LITE。 仅在近几个月，我们就看到了： 1. 与 O-Net 的合作推动 ELS 进入大规模生产 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO 大规模生产信号，表明使用 Sivers 的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”。 3. $GFS SCALE 参考设计
英文原文
I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen: 1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers. 3. $GFS SCALE reference
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@CFc19971622 你傻吗？ 1. $JBL 大规模生产 1.6T LRO 是营收。 2. O-Net 大规模生产 ELS 是营收。 3. $GFS 使用 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心的参考激光器是营收。 4. Ayar 加入 $NVDA NVLink 用于共封装光学(CPO) 并使用 $SIVE 进行大规模生产是营收。 5. 其他可插拔
英文原文
@CFc19971622 Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable