$SOI
观点汇总
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Serenity 对 Soitec ($SOI) 持有极高信念，核心论点是其作为 CPO（共封装光学）及硅光子学架构中 SOI 衬底的“虚拟垄断者”。他认为 Soitec 虽不制造 100% 晶圆，但通过授权模式能从几乎 100% 的晶圆中获取收入，且亚洲玩家如信越化学均获其授权，确立了其不可替代的供应链瓶颈地位。随着时间推移，他的观点从初期强调下行风险有限、上行空间巨大，演变为将其视为 Nvidia 主导的光子范式转换中的最大受益者之一，并指出其估值极低（约 1.3-1.4 倍市净率），具有显著重估潜力。他明确表态长期持有，预计未来一年至两年内仍有 2-3 倍甚至更高的上涨空间，并将 Soitec 列为其光子超级周期投资组合中“高集中度、更安全”的核心标的，与 Tower Semi 等并列，坚信其将随 CPO 量产拐点到来而持续受益。
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分析美中博弈下，欧日企业在EUV及光子学领域的垄断地位。
所以……这是我对美中紧张局势的看法： 你拥有像这样的欧洲垄断企业： - $ASML（极紫外光刻机 EUV） - $SOI（光子学-硅基绝缘体 Photonics-SOI） - 蔡司 SMT（ASML EUV 供应商）、通快 Trumpf（ASML EUV 激光供应商） 日本拥有许多近乎/完全的垄断企业，例如： - TOK、JSR、信越化学 ShinEstu、富士胶片 Fujifilm 用于 EUV
英文原文
So... here's my take on US / China tensions: You have European monopolies like: - $ASML (EUV) - $SOI (Photonics-SOI) - Zeiss SMT (ASML EUV supplier), Trumpf (ASML EUV laser supplier) Japan has many near/complete monoplies like: - TOK, JSR, ShinEstu, Fujifilm for EUV
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梳理AI供应链瓶颈：内存、ABF、CPO及地缘政治动态。
一些我感兴趣的TLDR新闻摘要： 1. $GOOGL（漏看了）也联合$NVDA投资了联发科，参与其39亿美元融资。Google/Nvidia在投资眼光上真是“山羊”（顶级），从$SPCX到Anthropic都是如此。 2. 三星电机披露了7.789亿美元的MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）订单；$CAPA（新MLCC ETF）也为无法访问韩/日/台市场的投资者提供了敞口。但关键在于，每个加速器所需的MLCC数量增加，可能预示着未来比人们预期更极端的瓶颈。 3. 中国渠道调查显示：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。其中行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如$SHA0.DE做行星滚柱丝杠。只是听听护城河挺有意思。 4. 据报道，三星约70%的内存产能已锁定至2031年/商品DRAM也陷入短缺 - 首尔经济日报。TrendForce预计2026年Q3服务器DRAM合约价环比上涨13-18%。SK海力士也公开表示内存短缺将持续至2030年。 5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据称实现了LPDDR6的大规模量产。这对传统DRAM短缺的暗示更为积极。 6. 思科在台湾SEMICON表示共封装光学(CPO)已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。$MRVL也表示客户正积极规划早在2027年扩大光学部署。 7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰政府实际上剥夺了闻泰的控制权 -> 闻泰正通过中国法院反击。但安世3亿美元资产被冻结。当然还有更多地缘政治戏剧，总是很娱乐。$AAPL也明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据...（更多乐子） 8. 关于SOI（绝缘体上硅）衬底$SOI的ASP（平均售价）上涨描述不多，但他们现在有10+客户参与LTA（长期协议），$2亿营收被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心获得晶圆而非制造地。所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入产能预留阶段。 9. 一些渠道调查显示高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达~52周。（$STM据报道也在8月23日实施了2026年第三次涨价） 10. 传统封装产能可能在2027年面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈，本周早些时候已覆盖过，受益者如... 11. 声称所有六大ABF供应商2026年订单已满，交货期12-14个月，部分供应商拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD和超大规模客户锁定ABF产能至2028年，并推动供应商规划2029-30年扩产。像Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、南亚PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062)等名字大概都很开心。 12. CCL（覆铜板）主导的层压板产品再次涨价10%-20%，今年第7次涨价（如建滔）。行业估计HVLP4铜箔短缺在2026年约48%/2027年43%，而Low-Dk/T-Glass交货期已延长至30周以上。 13. “(GaAs)衬底材料和砷化镓外延源材料在2026年第三季度也面临新一轮涨价，据报道比限制初期高出5到6倍。”“中国最近放宽了一些衬底出口管制”，但据digitimes称“InP衬底严重短缺”。只是些$AXTI相关更新。 14. $AMD和$AVGO据报道预订了PowerTech计划的大部分FOPLP产能，早于2027年中大规模量产。 15. $INTC考虑使用$INTC代工生产HBM4E基底芯片。但$SKHY直接回应称“部分内容与事实不符”。 16. “OpenAI囤积数万台$AAPL Mac mini和Mac Studio”用于强化学习。Anthropic也从$AMZN租赁Mac mini单元。Tim Cook退休有点可惜，但老哥表现确实“山羊”（顶级）。只是些随机有趣的笔记。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes
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Soitec 产能协议进展顺利，硅光子衬底垄断地位确立。
还记得我关于 $SOI 的论点吗？Soitec 今天的采访评论： - 预计 1-2 周内将敲定 80% 的产能预留协议，总数超过 10 份。 - $2 亿的光子学-SOI 营收现在被描述为“绝对底线”。 $TSM 也认为硅光子集成 (SiPH) 将在 2027 年成为主流，市场份额将超过光收发器市场的 50%+。 如果你在一个瓶颈环节占据垄断地位： （瑞银估计 Soitec 在支撑硅光子芯片的衬底市场占据 95% 份额） 收入通常会流经你。
英文原文
Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today: - 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total. - $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor" $TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint: (UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips) Revenue usually flows through you.
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博主批评X财经圈付费墙乱象，坚持免费公开研究以建立新文化。
看到我在 X 上互动的一些人呈现出的模式，我感到有些失望： - 试图接触同一受众，然后迅速转向激进变现 - 当我选择不参与或放大付费群组时感到不满 - 抛出人身攻击或非逻辑指责，并试图将其重构为仅仅是基本面分歧 当我刚加入 X 时，许多财经内容围绕名表/私人飞机+期权、承诺“华尔街秘密”的付费社区以及杂乱图表展开。 我想做的不同之处在于公开出版我的研究和推理，面向所有人。 鉴于我的粉丝增长，我认为这确实引起了共鸣。 但当然，这种增长也会与那些商业模式依赖利用 X 将受众引流至付费服务或昂贵付费墙的人产生摩擦。 我的订阅费几个月来一直是 1 美元，并将保持在最低水平，尽管起初声称会涨到 100 美元。 我所有的核心论点都免费发布在主时间线上。我可以将更多内容放在付费墙后。我只是不想这么做。 我更喜欢公开分享想法，让每个人自行决定。 许多想法进展顺利：$AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR 等。 其他一些遇到了意外的行业延迟，如 $LPKF 的玻璃基板和 Auros 的混合键合。 一些仍在 2027/2028 年展开，包括 $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB 以及更广泛的共封装光学(CPO)/人形机器人主题。 有些是全新的，如 Etron/ESMT 的 DDR2/DDR3。 许多如 $JBL 到 Murata 到 $MXL，我只是出于乐趣分享，看看想法是否正确。 并非每个想法都会正确。这是研究的一部分。 但我更希望有一个人们公开出版论点和推理以便每个人都能从中学习的 X。 而不是一个信息日益消失在 100 美元付费墙后或被参与诱饵噪音稀释的 X。 希望我能帮助在 X 上创造一种新文化，而不是放大旧文化。
英文原文
It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone. I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth. But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls. My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100. All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to. I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves. Many ideas have worked out well: $AXTI, $NBIS, $AEHR, $MU, $INTC, $EWY, $MRVL, $LITE, $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $TSEM, $ARM, $COHR, and a lot more. Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding. Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $CCXI, $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes. Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3. And many like $JBL to Murata to $MXL, I just share for fun to see if the idea is right. Not every idea will be right. That's part of research. But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it. Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise. Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.
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博主列出过往持仓的年初至今表现，反问质疑者是否改变看法。
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr 你可以看看我今年早些时候或去年建仓的以下股票的年初至今(YTD)表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU。 然后告诉我你是否还坚持之前的看法。
英文原文
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.
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吐槽光学领域缩写繁多，新粉丝可能感到困惑。
是我一个人觉得吗，还是说这三个字母的光学行话真的没完没了？ 我们有LPO、LRO、NPO、XPO、CPO、OBO等作为技术路线。 然后还有InP、EML、ELS、OCS、SOI等一堆随机术语。 甚至连OCP或OFC这样的行业会议都有三个字母的缩写。 那些跟随我进行$SOI或$IQE光学瓶颈寻宝之旅的人，现在可能已经懂很多了。 但新粉丝会不会超级困惑……
英文原文
Is it just me, or is the list of 3 letter optical jargon never ending? We have LPO, LRO, NPO, XPO, CPO, OBO, and others for approaches. Then InP, EML, ELS, OCS, SOI, and others to add to the random terms. Even the industry events with OCP or OFC get their three letter names. People who have followed me on my optical bottleneck scavenger hunt with $SOI or $IQE might know a lot by now. But wouldn’t new followers might be super confused…
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈与涨价，AMD光互连及存储需求强劲。
一些新闻摘要(TLDR)： - 如果你看好中国存储，$CXMT 明天 IPO。 - 三星电子据报在获取大型 FC-BGA 基板方面遇到困难。伊比登(4062)据报要求长期协议(LTA)担保，三星电机寻求预付款。 - 三星 + $AVGO 签署至 2030 年的存储 + 代工 AI 框架，预计超过 2000 亿美元。 - $SOI 预计 2027 财年硅光子学收入将比上一年翻倍，超越摩根士丹利 60% 的增长预测。光子学逻辑起飞。 - SK 集团 + $NVDA 签署 5000 亿美元+ 合作伙伴关系，建设 AI 数据中心和 HBM4 内存。 - 据报 SKC Absolics 玻璃芯延迟至 2027 年。目标年底完成最终可靠性测试，明年量产。所以如果你好奇，这确实推迟了 $LPK 和其他人的爬坡（因此财报后下跌）。 - $QCOM 智能手机处理器价格因上游供应商涨价而两位数上涨。 - $META 预计发行 120 亿美元项目级/SPV 融资用于德克萨斯州埃尔帕索 AI 数据中心扩建。 - Naver 宣布 $NVDA 和 Brookfield 投资 100 亿美元建设 1GW 级 AI 工厂。近期计划是 2028 年达到 200MW。（英伟达投资 10 亿美元，Brookfield 非约束性 90 亿美元） - 64GB DDR5 服务器模块较 6 月底合约价上涨 146% - $INTC 将 14A 工艺量产提前一年，2027 年下半年风险生产，2028 年量产，相比此前 2029 年 HVM 预期。 - 三星电机赢得 2 亿美元 MLCC 订单（现有瓶颈）。 - $AMD（班达纳瓶颈），宣布 Helios 全面生产，2026 年 Q3 出货。包括与 Anthropic 部署高达 2GW 的 MI455X GPU 和与 OpenAI 的 6GW 基础设施。给出新的 >50% CAGR TAM，从 2025 年的 260 亿美元增至 2030 年的 2200 亿美元 CPU 市场。 - 2027 年为 Mi500 推出光互连。据渠道检查，AMD 正走向 CPO 路线（似乎很可能使用 Ayar）。 - $ORCL 赢得 70 亿美元国防部企业软件合同 - JX 金属将其韩国子公司半导体目标产能翻倍，投资 40 亿日元，2027 年下半年开始运营，应对三星电子和 SK 海力士等主要客户需求激增 - 钨六氟化物现货价格同比飙升 2.1-2.5 倍，继日本关东电化和中央气体宣布永久停产之后。随着 3M 计划退出 PFAS 生产，氟化液体供应面临真空。 - 从四家光芯片制造商财报来看，源杰/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/东山精密：无重大订单削减，1.6T 出货预计加速进入 2027 年。光芯片供应商预计将从短缺中获取超额利润。 - 宇树科技目标 2026 年人形机器人产能 30,000 台。阅读人形 TAM 像 $CCXI 等一样扩展。 - 储能锂电池订单上半年在中国增加 2900%。不太熟悉 EVE Energy 和其他电池制造商。
英文原文
Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
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博主惊叹半导体板块创纪录的单日强劲反弹行情。
哇，创纪录的单日反弹。 $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
英文原文
Wow, a historic single day recovery. $SIVEF +30.89% $IQEF +28.6% $AEHR +26.53% $CIFR +17.82% $NBIS +17.3% $AAOI +15.6% $LPK +14.48% $AXTI +14.12% $MU +12.54% $SNDK +12.8% $SOI +11.1% $TSEM +10.39% $LITE +9.25% $INTC +8.22% $AMD +8.11% $MRVL +7.27%
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高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。
谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。
英文原文
Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
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全球市场修正中，高贝塔值股票跌幅远超大盘指数。
目前全球市场正在经历修正，不知何时会结束。 Kospi 下跌 -8.18%（SK 海力士/三星） 日经指数下跌 -4.8% 台湾加权指数下跌 -3.82% 正如你们所见，$SOI 或 $RKLB 下跌了 30-40%。 根据我的个人经验，高贝塔值股票受到的打击要猛烈得多，但 https://t.co/ekYz44MqJI
英文原文
There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but https://t.co/ekYz44MqJI
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博主反思近期大幅回撤，称CPO持仓受损严重，自嘲策略为分散亏损。
我也这么认为。但在此期间，我将我的策略称为：分散亏损(Diversified Losses)。 涉及 $AXTI、$SOI、$AAOI 以及许多其他股票。 最近经历了大幅回撤， 共封装光学(CPO) 敞口受损最严重（如 Foci、Msscorp 等）以及相邻标的，感觉糟透了。 大概是个人的教训，我持有 https://t.co/Ob2No0rLa6 太多了。
英文原文
Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much https://t.co/Ob2No0rLa6
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博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
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博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
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调侃美国投资者无视估值狂热追捧太空概念股SPCX。
显然，$SPCX 现在是一家市值 2.5 万亿美元的公司了。 我之前确实说过，美国人会购买任何具有未来感的东西，而不在乎估值…… 我想在“Murica”（美国俚语）里，一切都在疯狂上涨（go brrr）。
英文原文
Apparently, $SPCX is a $2.5T company now. I did say Americans would buy anything futuristic without caring about valuations... I guess everything in Murica go brrr.
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回顾核心欧洲多头持仓，重点解析Sivers在光子学领域的瓶颈地位。
简单回顾一下，以下是我所有的核心欧洲多头持仓： 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers：如你所知，它是下一代光子学的核心激光瓶颈环节，涵盖从1.6T可插拔光模块到共封装光学(CPO)。 嵌入在许多超大规模云计算服务商的供应商（如Jabil）中。
英文原文
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs: 1. $SIVE 2. $LPK 3. $SOI 4. $RPI 5. $IQE 6. $ALRIB 7. $XFAB Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO. Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil
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博主调侃中美欧投资者在AI、估值及交易风格上的刻板印象。
如果我要对我在 X 上的市场经历进行刻板印象总结： 中国：致力于用 AI 克隆我，受 A 股创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)影响，只能从短期时间框架思考交易。 美国：对任何像 $SPCX 这样的未来主义事物都看涨，不在乎估值。 欧洲：从 $SIVE 到 $SOI，
英文原文
If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China : set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America : bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX , don’t care about valuations Europe : from $SIVE to $SOI,
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英伟达点名硅光子与存储，利好SiPH供应链。
此外，$NVDA CEO 也把硅光子(Silicon Photonics，光网络)和存储一起点名。 他表示，英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对硅光子(SiPH)供应链是非常看多的读出，从 $SIVE（现在处于英伟达上游生态）到 $SOI。
英文原文
On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
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$SIVE 是第1，$AAOI 是第2，上面措辞用错了。 总体上我喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔/CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源组件，$TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装/测试） - Win Semi（代工） - $TSEM（代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器/笼式热管理模块） 还有其他几个。
英文原文
$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
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称质疑者在SOI/RPI/SIVE上反复被打脸。
回复 @Frenchie_：他们在 $SOI、$RPI 和 $SIVE 等所有事情上都一直和我争。 然后一次又一次尴尬。不知道他们会不会学会。
英文原文
@Frenchie_ They keep fighting with me with everything from $SOI, $RPI, and $SIVE. Then get embarrassed over and over. Idk if they’re going to learn
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称欧洲应强化细分垄断和主权供应链韧性。
回复 @BilalElmou89932：欧洲在 AI 竞赛中没有机会与美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的细分垄断/瓶颈，以及主权供应链韧性。 不过我认为他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键。
英文原文
@BilalElmou89932 Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho.
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认为SIVE/XFAB更匹配EU政策激励，SOI/NOK已更成熟。
回复 @aphexinvests：所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经更成熟。 我更深入看了，提案重点是3000万到5亿资金和收入激励，用来把放量前生产玩家桥接到高量制造(HVM)。 $SIVE / $XFAB 更符合政策激励，但我也不会惊讶……
英文原文
@aphexinvests So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised
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称SOI上涨约250%，并惊讶XFAB估值偏低。
回复 @StocksAREnuts：是的，我在 $SOI 上大概涨了250%，我很惊讶市场错过了那个机会。 考虑到 $XFAB 看起来正在引领欧洲光子学供应链发展，我也对它的估值相当惊讶。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts Yeah I’m up like 250% on $SOI, I’m surprised markets missed the at one… Also quite surprised about $XFAB valuations given they seem to be leading Europe’s photonics supply chain development…
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称SOI即使当天跌17%，相对44欧元成本仍表现不错。
回复 @JeremieHello：我真不知道 $SOI 有期权。 不过即使今天跌了17%，从44欧元以来仍然表现相当不错。
英文原文
@JeremieHello I genuinely didnt know $SOI had options. But even with the 17% drop today, still doing pretty well since $44 EUR. https://t.co/QQ8Mc7XvWm
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IQE从12-13涨到54，但其他欧洲光子股波动较大。
特别感谢今天唯一上涨的欧洲股票：$IQE。 从我4个月前在12-13美元做多以来，它涨到54美元。 可惜其他几个从 $LPK、$SOI、$XFAB 到 $ALRIB 的名字波动都很大。
英文原文
A special thank you to the only European stock green today: $IQE. Up to $54, from when I went long at $12-13, 4 months ago. Unfortunately lot of volatility with the other ones from $LPK, $SOI, $XFAB, and $ALRIB. https://t.co/FysZyHk5OK
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称自己的瓶颈投资理论可能被历史研究，涉及AXTI/SOI/SIVE。
我在想，我的瓶颈投资理论…… 从 $AXTI 到 $SOI 再到 $SIVE，将来会不会被写进历史书研究？ 无论如何，我认为这里的每个人都是创造历史的一部分。 因为从路透社到机构再到各国，都在对 Serenity 引发的供应链博弈论作出反应。
英文原文
I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.
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复盘SOI从44欧元上涨342%，反驳欧洲媒体低估。
和欧洲媒体互动总是很有意思。 当 $SOI 还在44欧元时，欧洲媒体说它是： - “被高估的股票” - “现在买入无疑是重大的择时错误” - “纯粹投机基础” 传统分析师也完全不知道它为什么上涨。 顺便说一句，$SOI 现在已经上涨342%。
英文原文
Always a good time interacting with European outlets. Back at $44 EUR, European media said $SOI was an: - -“overvalued stock” - “buying now would undoubtedly be a big timing errors” - “purely speculative bases” And traditions analysts had no clue why it had risen. $SOI is now up 342% since by the way.
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复盘欧洲媒体曾称RPI为迷因股，后被业绩打脸。
几个月前，一家欧洲媒体把我的 $RPI 想法称为： - “群体愚蠢” 并说： - $RPI 股价会“崩回现实” 然后称它为： - “迷因股”。 财报出来后呢？收入预期被大幅打爆。 很有意思，媒体可以写下这么多诽谤…… 等结果变得很难看时，又假装从没发生过。 从 $SOI 到 $SIVE，媒体诽谤的数量相当惊人。
英文原文
Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea: - “mass stupidity” And said: - $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality” Then called it a: - “Meme stock”. Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations. It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander… Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly. Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.
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列举欧洲股票战绩：RPI、LPK、SOI大幅上涨。
以防有人好奇我在欧洲股票上的记录： $RPI：280美元 -> 800美元（agentic AI 硬件需求论点）。 $LPK：约6美元，13美元发表 thesis -> 24.2美元（玻璃核心基板近乎垄断）。 $SOI：44美元 -> 181美元（硅光子，衬底垄断）。
英文原文
Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) https://t.co/EWWaVL7Y49
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SOI自其做多以来已涨超4倍，并因光子学衬底需求而重组公司。
看吧，$SOI 自我做多以来现在已经上涨4倍以上。 财报后又上涨15%+。 尽管媒体“分析师”声称 Soitec 没有任何新东西。 它们试图重组公司，以回应光子学对 SOI 衬底的需求。 这对公司未来两年的发展是相当正面的读出。 再次强调，对拥有前瞻增长机会的公司，关键是看未来…… 而不是过去的财报，不像某些欧洲人可能只关心这个。
英文原文
Oh look, $SOI is now up 4X+ since I went long. And another 15%+ after earnings. Despite media“analysts”claiming there was nothing new with Soitec. The fact they’re trying to reorganize the company to answer demand for SOI substrates for photonics. It’s a pretty positive read-through on what’s to come for the company in the next two years. Again with companies with forward growth opportunities, it’s about looking at the future… not past earnings, unlike what some Europeans might only care about.
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长文反驳XFAB是迷因股，强调CHIPS资金、SiPH评估、800VDC功率半导体和低估值。
媒体兄弟……$XFAB 怎么会是迷因股？ 这次能不能不要重复 $RPI 的错误？ 它们字面上因为自身关键性正在获得欧盟 CHIPS Act 资金。 并且有 $NVDA / $NOK 在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们以约1.28倍低市净率交易。 这让我想起 $SOI：低市净率，但传统业务拖累之外有高增长垂直领域。 $XFAB 下周在 CHIPS Act 2 蓝图中被明确提到，而该蓝图聚焦光子学。 主要收入爬坡围绕 $NVDA 推动 800VDC 带来的功率半导体。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 等最近都在起飞。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它是功率半导体里知名度较低的代工厂……但美国商务部两年前就指出它是美国唯一高量 SiC 代工厂。 我只是刚好指出了这些连接。 不要因为你不理解某件事，就把它叫作“迷因股”，说价格脱离基本面。
英文原文
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.