$SOI
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博主调侃中美欧投资者在AI、估值及交易风格上的刻板印象。
如果我要对我在 X 上的市场经历进行刻板印象总结： 中国：致力于用 AI 克隆我，受 A 股创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)影响，只能从短期时间框架思考交易。 美国：对任何像 $SPCX 这样的未来主义事物都看涨，不在乎估值。 欧洲：从 $SIVE 到 $SOI，
原推 ↗英文原文
If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets: China : set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD. America : bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX , don’t care about valuations Europe : from $SIVE to $SOI,
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英伟达点名硅光子与存储，利好SiPH供应链。
此外，$NVDA CEO 也把硅光子(Silicon Photonics，光网络)和存储一起点名。 他表示，英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对硅光子(SiPH)供应链是非常看多的读出，从 $SIVE（现在处于英伟达上游生态）到 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
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列出其偏好的CPO/光子学供应链标的。
$SIVE 是第1，$AAOI 是第2，上面措辞用错了。 总体上我喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔/CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源组件，$TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装/测试） - Win Semi（代工） - $TSEM（代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器/笼式热管理模块） 还有其他几个。
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$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
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称质疑者在SOI/RPI/SIVE上反复被打脸。
回复 @Frenchie_：他们在 $SOI、$RPI 和 $SIVE 等所有事情上都一直和我争。 然后一次又一次尴尬。不知道他们会不会学会。
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@Frenchie_ They keep fighting with me with everything from $SOI, $RPI, and $SIVE. Then get embarrassed over and over. Idk if they’re going to learn
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称欧洲应强化细分垄断和主权供应链韧性。
回复 @BilalElmou89932：欧洲在 AI 竞赛中没有机会与美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的细分垄断/瓶颈，以及主权供应链韧性。 不过我认为他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键。
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@BilalElmou89932 Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho.
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认为SIVE/XFAB更匹配EU政策激励，SOI/NOK已更成熟。
回复 @aphexinvests：所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经更成熟。 我更深入看了，提案重点是3000万到5亿资金和收入激励，用来把放量前生产玩家桥接到高量制造(HVM)。 $SIVE / $XFAB 更符合政策激励，但我也不会惊讶……
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@aphexinvests So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised
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称SOI上涨约250%，并惊讶XFAB估值偏低。
回复 @StocksAREnuts：是的，我在 $SOI 上大概涨了250%，我很惊讶市场错过了那个机会。 考虑到 $XFAB 看起来正在引领欧洲光子学供应链发展，我也对它的估值相当惊讶。
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@StocksAREnuts Yeah I’m up like 250% on $SOI, I’m surprised markets missed the at one… Also quite surprised about $XFAB valuations given they seem to be leading Europe’s photonics supply chain development…
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称SOI即使当天跌17%，相对44欧元成本仍表现不错。
回复 @JeremieHello：我真不知道 $SOI 有期权。 不过即使今天跌了17%，从44欧元以来仍然表现相当不错。
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@JeremieHello I genuinely didnt know $SOI had options. But even with the 17% drop today, still doing pretty well since $44 EUR. https://t.co/QQ8Mc7XvWm
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IQE从12-13涨到54，但其他欧洲光子股波动较大。
特别感谢今天唯一上涨的欧洲股票：$IQE。 从我4个月前在12-13美元做多以来，它涨到54美元。 可惜其他几个从 $LPK、$SOI、$XFAB 到 $ALRIB 的名字波动都很大。
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A special thank you to the only European stock green today: $IQE. Up to $54, from when I went long at $12-13, 4 months ago. Unfortunately lot of volatility with the other ones from $LPK, $SOI, $XFAB, and $ALRIB. https://t.co/FysZyHk5OK
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称自己的瓶颈投资理论可能被历史研究，涉及AXTI/SOI/SIVE。
我在想，我的瓶颈投资理论…… 从 $AXTI 到 $SOI 再到 $SIVE，将来会不会被写进历史书研究？ 无论如何，我认为这里的每个人都是创造历史的一部分。 因为从路透社到机构再到各国，都在对 Serenity 引发的供应链博弈论作出反应。
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I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With $AXTI to $SOI to $SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.
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复盘SOI从44欧元上涨342%，反驳欧洲媒体低估。
和欧洲媒体互动总是很有意思。 当 $SOI 还在44欧元时，欧洲媒体说它是： - “被高估的股票” - “现在买入无疑是重大的择时错误” - “纯粹投机基础” 传统分析师也完全不知道它为什么上涨。 顺便说一句，$SOI 现在已经上涨342%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Always a good time interacting with European outlets. Back at $44 EUR, European media said $SOI was an: - -“overvalued stock” - “buying now would undoubtedly be a big timing errors” - “purely speculative bases” And traditions analysts had no clue why it had risen. $SOI is now up 342% since by the way.
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复盘欧洲媒体曾称RPI为迷因股，后被业绩打脸。
几个月前，一家欧洲媒体把我的 $RPI 想法称为： - “群体愚蠢” 并说： - $RPI 股价会“崩回现实” 然后称它为： - “迷因股”。 财报出来后呢？收入预期被大幅打爆。 很有意思，媒体可以写下这么多诽谤…… 等结果变得很难看时，又假装从没发生过。 从 $SOI 到 $SIVE，媒体诽谤的数量相当惊人。
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Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea: - “mass stupidity” And said: - $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality” Then called it a: - “Meme stock”. Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations. It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander… Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly. Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.
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列举欧洲股票战绩：RPI、LPK、SOI大幅上涨。
以防有人好奇我在欧洲股票上的记录： $RPI：280美元 -> 800美元（agentic AI 硬件需求论点）。 $LPK：约6美元，13美元发表 thesis -> 24.2美元（玻璃核心基板近乎垄断）。 $SOI：44美元 -> 181美元（硅光子，衬底垄断）。
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Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) https://t.co/EWWaVL7Y49
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SOI自其做多以来已涨超4倍，并因光子学衬底需求而重组公司。
看吧，$SOI 自我做多以来现在已经上涨4倍以上。 财报后又上涨15%+。 尽管媒体“分析师”声称 Soitec 没有任何新东西。 它们试图重组公司，以回应光子学对 SOI 衬底的需求。 这对公司未来两年的发展是相当正面的读出。 再次强调，对拥有前瞻增长机会的公司，关键是看未来…… 而不是过去的财报，不像某些欧洲人可能只关心这个。
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Oh look, $SOI is now up 4X+ since I went long. And another 15%+ after earnings. Despite media“analysts”claiming there was nothing new with Soitec. The fact they’re trying to reorganize the company to answer demand for SOI substrates for photonics. It’s a pretty positive read-through on what’s to come for the company in the next two years. Again with companies with forward growth opportunities, it’s about looking at the future… not past earnings, unlike what some Europeans might only care about.
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长文反驳XFAB是迷因股，强调CHIPS资金、SiPH评估、800VDC功率半导体和低估值。
媒体兄弟……$XFAB 怎么会是迷因股？ 这次能不能不要重复 $RPI 的错误？ 它们字面上因为自身关键性正在获得欧盟 CHIPS Act 资金。 并且有 $NVDA / $NOK 在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们以约1.28倍低市净率交易。 这让我想起 $SOI：低市净率，但传统业务拖累之外有高增长垂直领域。 $XFAB 下周在 CHIPS Act 2 蓝图中被明确提到，而该蓝图聚焦光子学。 主要收入爬坡围绕 $NVDA 推动 800VDC 带来的功率半导体。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 等最近都在起飞。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它是功率半导体里知名度较低的代工厂……但美国商务部两年前就指出它是美国唯一高量 SiC 代工厂。 我只是刚好指出了这些连接。 不要因为你不理解某件事，就把它叫作“迷因股”，说价格脱离基本面。
原推 ↗英文原文
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
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认为光子学无新闻下跌是有吸引力主题的波动，自己在加仓。
今天光子学无新闻下跌挺有意思？ $LITE -4.95% $AAOI -4.85% $SIVE -14.8% $SOI -5.73% $AXTI -8.13% $IQE -12.13% 我认为它可能是未来最有吸引力的主题（甚至超过功率半导体）。 只是上涨途中往往非常波动。 不过我对 $AAOI 有些惊讶，因为显然有机构报告提到与 $AMD 或 $NVDA 的长期协议（Rosenblatt）。也许6亿美元 ATM 限制了近期上行。 $SIVE 也是，考虑到下周 EU Chips Act 2 围绕光子学，而它们列在蓝图中。下周还有 MSCI/NASDAQ OMX 资金流入。 我个人一直在加仓，因为我对光子学主题（尤其是 CPO）有高信念，原因是未来两年整体 TAM 扩张。
原推 ↗英文原文
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
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认为SIVE/SOI/XFAB可能获得EU Chips Act 2资金。
是的，如果看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 获得 EU Chips Act 2 资金，我不会惊讶。 很高兴我在那里所有多头（除了 $IQE）都列在蓝图中，我之前研究时还没看到！ 不过正式公告看起来推迟到下周了。
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Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
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中文：若不能说出光通信全产业链说明还需多读，其观点帮助读者建立逻辑。
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的 InP（磷化铟）衬底， 一路向下到光模块成品制造商…… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
原推 ↗英文原文
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底， 路向下游直到光模块成品制造商… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
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复盘RPI接近三倍，并列举多只曾被机构看空后大涨的标的。
$RPI，接近约3倍回报。 这是媒体贴上“迷因股”标签后的结果。 我觉得散户看到机构看空我的 thesis 帖后， 先后纸手卖掉 $AXTI、$RPI、$IQE、$EWY、$SNDK、$AAOI、$SOI。 然后眼看它们全部上涨3倍到15倍以上。
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$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ https://t.co/SZj4bAAIMH
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中文长文：列出多个实质性垄断瓶颈，并讨论SIVE、HIMX、Foci等design-in/out风险。
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的： - MSSCORP（6830）：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅（SOI）衬底市场。 - NGK（5333）：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂（TFLN）晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟（InP）衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯（Shunsin）这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地。 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence（壁仞供应商）、Lightmatter、Celestial 等行业领军者。 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX 或 Foci 未来面临被踢出局的风险最大，很可能被台积电光学部门采钰（Visera 6789）这类巨头垂直整合。不过未来两三年，借助 CPO 相关 FAU 和无源器件，它们眼前依然有巨大赚钱机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇
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黄仁勋预计2030年AI资本开支每年3-4万亿，应持有AI王国关键瓶颈。
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋预测，到2030年 AI 资本开支预计将达到每年“3到4万亿美元”。 你还不够看多。 保持敞口并拥有 AI 王国钥匙，可能是个好主意： -> $AXTI 控制光子学材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子控制 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 控制 CPO 的激光瓶颈。 -> $IQE 控制西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预测中的万亿美元资本开支正逐渐向它们上游流动。 其他行业也有许多类似例子： -> AI 资本开支流向 $NBIS 等 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本开支流向 $MU 和 $SNDK 等存储。 过去20年许多“商品”材料或“科学项目”，现在突然出现指数级 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能 + 物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
原推 ↗英文原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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Sivers为CPO玩家制造架构独特的DFB激光器，是咽喉要道且具高定价权。
光子学是复杂微妙的，用ChatGPT/Gemini会让你忽略其中所有的细微差别： 1. $SIVE实际上是一个咽喉要道，部分也是一个瓶颈。 它之所以是咽喉要道，是因为领先的CPO/光学超大规模玩家都要经过Sivers，很可能是：Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Poet。 如果你去掉Sivers，你实际上无法制造他们的一些产品，并使路线图延迟数年。 尽管许多是单一/主要来源，但正在朝着多来源方向发展。 至于瓶颈论点：Win Semi是扩大激光生产的瓶颈。 但是……微妙之处在于，当你拥有未来几年的产能分配时，如果玩家们争夺成品激光器的分配，你本身就成为瓶颈的一部分。 这就是人们错过的关于产能分配动态的微妙之处。 这就像说当Kioxia生产全部NAND时，$SNDK不是NAND瓶颈一样。 但当Sandisk拥有最终产出供应控制权时，他们就成为瓶颈+拥有所有定价权。 Sivers在分配的前提下控制CW激光器的产出供应，正如$LITE财报所示，CW激光器目前是瓶颈的，因为每个人似乎都在努力生产EML。 2. 就像大语言模型总是使用破折号一样。 你能看出人们什么时候用AI——当他们总是使用同样的「CW是一个愚蠢的可互换激光器」论点，或者在混淆不同架构后比较「功率」规格时。 这就是为什么你的「分析师」使用AI会一次又一次地犯错。 有CW激光器……然后有Sivers用DFB激光器实现的特定架构设计。 如果你比较$LITE与Sivers的功率规格，孤立来看Lumentum赢了。但它们是完全不同的激光架构。 所有领先的CPO玩家如Ayar，选择$SIVE是因为其高功率、低热、激光阵列的架构原因。$JBL的1.6T LRO还利用Sivers激光器建立了最具戏剧性的护城河之一，他们的炉边谈话中引用了这一点。 如果你认为CW激光器可以和Sumitomo/Furukawa及其他厂商的可互换，可以即插即用……我无话可说。 再次强调：$SIVE为领先的CPO玩家制造架构独特的CW激光器。 3. 我不确定需要说多少次： $SIVE在2024-2025年一直在走开发合同路线。人们使用TTM收入或以前的市销率指标是完全错误的指标，因为2027年才有量产爬坡。 这和$AAOI在2027年上半年量产爬坡一样。 $AEHR在资质认证后量产爬坡。 $LPK在资质认证后量产爬坡。 这只是半导体行业缺少资质认证周期以及对当前财务建模的问题。 至于$LITE的比较（也是我去年长期持有的）： $LITE最初确实是销售激光裸片，然后才收购Cloud Lite和其他下游光学引擎组件。 这就是$SIVE今天的处境——从CPO的激光咽喉要道起步： 人们正基于非常孤立的TAM预测来建模激光收入。与此同时Sivers正在通过并购来扩展TAM预测的收入。 这不是简单的台湾公司组件FAU+爬坡估值建模。 既然激光公司如$LITE、$COHR以向下游扩张使激光更有价值而闻名，然后事后垂直整合（晶圆厂、封装）。 同样，Sivers在这些公司成为十亿美元公司之前就与他们合作过。我有高度信心知道他们知道该收购什么来扩展ELS/光引擎堆叠+可插拔收发器的TAM。 只是很烦人，总有人不理解这些细微差别却对我的长仓指手画脚，说些错误的东西。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AXTI不是瓶颈！InP不需要！中国！」，当时股价是14美元。 现在是140美元。 我遇到同样的情况说「$AAOI要跌50%！」，当时是65美元。或者「AOI管理层有问题」，当时是30美元。 现在是170美元。 我遇到「$SOI没什么新东西」，当时是45美元。 现在是170美元。 我认为我是少数真正理解光子学细微差别的人之一，因为我确实预判了$LITE、$TSEM、Innolight、$AXTI、$AAOI、$SOI，这些在过去一年里表现超过光子学市场和整体市场。 现在我做多$SIVE。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it: 1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck. The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely: Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet. If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years. As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source. As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production. But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years. You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers. That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics. It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it. But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power. Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs. 2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes. You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures. That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over. There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers. If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures. All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers. If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you? Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players. 3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this: $SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027. It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027. $AEHR which volume ramps after qualification. $LPK that volume ramps after qualification. This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently. As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year): $LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components. This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO: People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections. This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company. Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward. Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion. It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs. I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14. Now it's $140 I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30". Now it's $170 I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45. Now it's $170. I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year. And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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重视新颖想法被市场验证，而非账户金额大小。
回复 @ncs1912：因为我更在意新颖想法，以及它们是否被市场验证。 如果一个只有4000美元的人在所有人之前，对 $SOI 提出一个很棒想法。 然后 Soitec 涨了4倍。这对我和其他人来说，比一个1000万美元大账户赚1%更有价值。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ncs1912 Because I care more about novel ideas and if they get validated in markets. If someone with $4000 had a great idea about $SOI before anyone else found it. Then Soitec goes up 4x. That's more valuable to me/others than if someone with a large account $10M off a 1% return.
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长文阐述用百分比回报验证thesis，而不是用金额炫富卖订阅。
我不公布美元金额，因为那并不重要。 重要的是回报百分比。说到这个…… 年初至今：3840.39%。 我可能是世界上唯一一个在短时间内点出多个10倍股的人。 你还记得这些 thesis 吗？ 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU 它们都上涨了100-1000%+，因为： 1. 我发布 thesis。 2. 人们可以看到几个月后股票表现。 3. 它们最终正确（thesis 被验证），因为上涨数百个百分点并保持回报。 我非常不喜欢传统 X 网红展示大额美元数字、名表、豪车、私人飞机。 然后用这些来卖昂贵订阅，而不是靠市场回报赚更多。 所以我想通过免费的 thesis 帖和之后的百分比回报结果，建立一种基于纯信息发现/综合的新趋势。 简而言之：验证 thesis 最重要的是市场百分比回报。 不是赚到的美元金额。
原推 ↗英文原文
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈上涨，LPKF CEO买股增强信心。
欧洲量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈 go BRRR？ $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% 顺便说一句，LPKF CEO 在市场上买入股票，对散户是一个不错的信心投票。 更多 CEO 应该这么做，即使金额很小。
原推 ↗英文原文
European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm
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称收到管理资金请求，但只想帮助普通散户靠想法成功。
我有那么受欢迎吗？ 我最近确实收到了很多 DM，请求我管理他们的资本。 但我在这里只是为了帮助普通散户投资者，通过 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这样的想法自己取得成功。 我觉得其他任何事情都会有点分散注意力。
原推 ↗英文原文
Am I that popular? I did get a lot of dm requests to manage their capital recently. But only here to help out regular retail investors succeed on their own with ideas like $SIVE or $SOI. I feel like anything else would be a bit of a distraction.
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欧洲光子学SIVE/IQE/SOI均双位数反弹。
欧洲光子学的普通一天？ $SIVE、$IQE、$SOI 全部出现双位数反弹。 这些都是未来核心玩家，在这些水平上很难看到任何下跌不被买走。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just your average day in European photonics? With $SIVE, $IQE, and $SOI all hitting double digit recoveries. These are all core players going forward, hard to see any dip not being bought out at these levels. https://t.co/fYaYAov3Vn
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复盘SOI：媒体和机构质疑后散户卖出，机构买入，2个月从40涨到140。
再提醒一次： 我3月在 $SOI 40美元发帖一天后。 花旗和 Kepler 点名我并说： “很难理解为什么 [Soitec] 股价涨这么多。” “市场热情是否过度？花旗认为是。” 然后我被欧洲本地媒体负面点名。 不幸的是，许多散户在这些报告后卖出，而机构下单买入流通盘。 2个月后，Soitec 现在交易在140美元。 而今天很多同样机构给出250美元目标价。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just another reminder: One day after my $SOI post back in March at $40. Citibank and Kepler called me out and said “it is very difficult to understand why the action [Soitec] has risen so much” “Is the enthusiasm of the market exaggerated? That's what Citi thinks.” Then I got a bunch of negative callouts from local European media. Unfortunately many retail investors sold after these reports, while institutions had orders in to buy up the float. 2 months later, Soitec is now trading at 140. With many of these same institutions giving 250 PTs today.
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付费订阅达到2.75万，仍会继续分享SOI式垄断想法。
哇，X 上 27,500 名付费订阅者是个疯狂数字。 这足够在旧金山某处放一块有趣广告牌？ 但我会继续分享很多想法，尽管当前市场下跌！ 在各国进行供应链战争时，我脑子里还有很多像 $SOI 这类有趣垄断标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, 27,500 paid subscribers is an insane number on X. That’s enough to help put a 1 fun billboard somewhere in SF? But will keep sharing a lot of ideas, despite current market drops! Got a lot of fun $SOI type monopolies in mind as your countries play supply chain warfare. https://t.co/pB6V8eEl2Z
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吐槽外行把无关术语硬塞进财报讨论
因为有人总在我自己的名字旁边，比如在 $TSEM 业绩里乱评论 $SOI。然后还扔进像 m7u 这种和他们预付款完全无关的东西。类似帖子有五六条，真的要把我逼疯了。要是拿 $IQE / Landmark 的业绩这么搞还说得过去，但这算什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
because I have people backseat commenting my own names like $SOI on $TSEM earnings. Then throwing in random crap like m7u with it that's not even related to their prepayment. There was like 5 different posts like that. I'm going insane. It's understandable if you do it with $IQE / Landmark earnings, but wtf.
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炫耀组合大部分未实现收益并继续复利
有个事实：我组合里 70% 以上还是未实现收益，很多仓位我一股都没卖。 如果像 $AXTI 这种涨了 1900%+，$SIVE 涨了 1000%+，更大的集中仓位也有 $SOI 这种 300%+ 的回报，当然会轻松很多。 但总的来说，除了更晚才建仓的 thesis 名字，比如已经接近 100% 的 $HPS.A，整个组合基本都在三位数收益。 连新仓 Shunsin 现在都大概涨了 35%+。 我现在大概是 1.3x 到 1.4x 杠杆，仓位 96% 左右都是股票。之前我就用已经上涨的仓位去加杠杆，继续复利到别的机会里。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact: over 70%+ of my portfolio is unrealized, I haven't sold a single share in many of these. It helps if things like $AXTI hit 1900%+ returns, $SIVE hit 1000%+ returns, and everything larger in concentration hit 300% like $SOI. But basically entire portfolio is up triple digits aside from newer thesis names I've entered like $HPS.A which is getting close to 100%. Even Shunsin, which is new up 35%+ now or something. I'm on 1.3x-1.4x leverage right now, 96% or so shares only. I've been using previous positions that appreciated to compound more with others using margin.
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列出年内高收益长仓并回顾战绩
Leopold Aschenbrenner 很传奇，但我不确定他能打败 Serenity Awareness fund 今年至今 3152.77% 的收益。 不过话说回来，我今年已经做对了 23 个不同的多头，年内回报在 100% 到 1000%+ 之间。 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 你还记得这些吗，anon？
原推 ↗英文原文
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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说 Shunsin 的 CPO/SiPh 逻辑开始兑现
花了一个月…… 但我关于 Shunsin（6451）CPO / SiPh 的想法开始兑现了。 我一直说，像 $IQE 到 $SOI 这些 thesis，通常会在我发帖后大概 1 个月左右突然开始上涨……这真的很诡异。 也许是机构在跟单？ https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
原推 ↗英文原文
Took a month… But my Shunsin (6451) CPO/SiPh idea is starting to play out. I’m telling you with all these ideas like $IQE to $SOI, they randomly start going up like 1 month after my thesis posts… it’s extremely uncanny. Maybe institution copy trading? https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
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用 TSEM 的预付款解释上游 substrate 需求
顺便提醒一下，$TSEM 报了额外的预付款（2.9 亿美元）来锁产能。 下游晶圆厂产能紧张，会直接转化为上游原始 substrate 的巨大需求，尤其是 $SOI（也意味着更多收入）。 我的光学持仓彼此之间关联非常强。 https://t.co/4vIAvS1jOl
原推 ↗英文原文
Just in case you were wondering $TSEM reported extra prepayment ($290M) to secure capacity. Downstream foundry capacity squeeze directly translates to an immense demand for raw substrates upstream with $SOI (more revenue). My optical picks are very interconnected. https://t.co/4vIAvS1jOl
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CPO市场将从零增长至910亿美元，欧洲、台湾、日本新玩家将主导CPO供应链变革。
人们好奇我为什么最近在关注非美国市场。 为什么？因为共封装光学(CPO)是我排名第一的主题性看多方向。 市场尚未意识到，光子学领域正经历一场突如其来的范式转变... 2025年，我是少数几个提前预判当前超级周期的人之一，当时买入的$AAOI约在$30、$LITE约在$300多、$AXTI约在$13...这些都是基于真实的业绩验证和其他人无法展示的thesis。 CPO市场将从约0增长到910亿美元的TAM机会。 高盛研究预计在未来1.5年内实现。 与此同时，整体光学市场将达到1540亿美元。 许多之前对当前光子学周期几乎没有任何敞口的企业： -> 欧洲企业拥有高端激光设计，如$SIVE或$SOI涉及衬底 -> 台湾企业如Foci (3363)、Nextronics (8147)、Shunsin (6451)等提供光学元件和代工服务 -> 日本企业涉及激光量产、衬底和化学品 突然之间成为了CPO的新主导力量。 至于美国玩家，目前敞口不大。但现有企业如$LITE、$COHR仍能从CPO中获得上涨空间，因为这是它们新的增长向量。 我对现有玩家的逆向思考： 他们的大部分估值已经反映了巨大的传统可插拔光学收入，而这些收入将不可避免地随时间被 cannibalize（ cannibalization蚕食），因此除非有人能利用杠杆，否则重新估值的空间有限。 许多新的纯CPO概念股会在H2 2026开始量产时从0到100极速增长（作为收入桥梁），然后进入H2 2027的规模化增长阶段（成为大规模增长驱动力）。 市场通常会在事件发生前8-12个月定价... 尽管在此期间市场可能出现波动，但我对自己的供应链研究在主题性方向上有高度信心。
原推 ↗英文原文
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.
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强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
原推 ↗英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
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回顾 SOI 从 40 到 171 又回落
当我做 $SOI 的 thesis 时，它从 40 -> 61 -> 53（伊朗战争紧张）-> 171…… 现在又因为伊朗战争紧张回到 144。 偶尔出现一些宏观相关回调其实是健康的。 通常会带来更高的高点，但我还是很愿意拿着。 对别人来说也许是买点，因为很多公司的基本面其实没有变。
原推 ↗英文原文
When I did my thesis on $SOI it went from 40 -> 61 -> 53 (Iran war tensions) -> 171… Now is back down to 144 (Iran war tensions). It’s healthy to get some macro related corrections from time to time. Usually leads to higher highs, but im gladly holding though it. Might be a buying opportunity for others since fundamentals of a lot of these companies didn’t change.
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宏观导致欧洲相关标的下跌
哇，欧洲今天真惨。 看起来从 $SOI 到 $LPK 等很多名字都因为纯宏观因素跌了 10-20%。 有意思的是，如果战事情绪像往常一样翻转，这些名字应该还会高很多。 https://t.co/7JYmFAzcTv
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah, rough day for Europe. Looks like everything from $SOI to $LPK and others are down 10-20% from overwhelmingly macro. Fun thing if war sentiment flips, as they often do with our president… lot of these names should go a lot higher. https://t.co/7JYmFAzcTv
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欧洲媒体看空的名字后来都在创新高
就在 3 个月前，欧洲媒体还把我的 $RPI thesis 叫成“meme stock”，说盈利不该被纳入决策。 2 个月前，$SOI 被说成“估值过高，thesis 没有新东西”。 这个月又轮到 $SIVE，被说成“没什么特别的，Sivers 或 CPO 早就存在很多年了”。 结果这三个现在年内都还在创新高，而且都是三位数回报。尤其是 Raspberry Pi，在把前瞻收入增长预期从约 15% 押到 52% 到 55% 后，表现非常夸张。 我也预计这三只（$RPI、$SIVE、$SOI）会继续在 AI、SiPH 和 CPO 的驱动下交出创纪录增长。 也许每次这些负面稿子出来之后，欧洲媒体都该照照镜子？ 真正盯基本面的那些人，反而成了他们嘲笑的对象。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis: "A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions. 2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis". This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around for years". Each are still hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns. Especially, Raspberry PI after it shattered projections by 52% to 55% fwd. rev growth from ~15% est. And I expect all 3 ($RPI, $SIVE, and $SOI) to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating. Maybe after each negative hit piece... it's time for European media to look in a mirror? The ones focusing on actual fundamentals are the ones they're mocking.
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列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
原推 ↗英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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Nomura 给 SOI 250 欧元目标价的反向验证
哈哈。Nomura 刚开始覆盖 $SOI，就给了 250 欧元目标价。 当我在大约 43 欧元做多时，第一次涨 25% 之后，机构还说不要买，说没有新东西。 现在两个月后，他们给出的目标价已经是我 thesis 发帖价的 6 倍多了。 https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2
原推 ↗英文原文
LOL. Nomura initiates $SOI coverage and gives it a EUR 250 PT. Back when I went long at ~€43, after the first +25% institutions were saying not to buy and that there’s nothing new. Now 2 months later they’re giving price targets ~6X+ my thesis post. https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2
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观察到机构总在 thesis 后几周才跟进
我注意到，通常在我发 thesis 后 4 到 6 周…… 就会有一批机构开始买像 $AXTI、$SOI 或 $IQE 这样的名字。 我不确定这是纯粹巧合，还是他们在看我的帖子，然后需要一些时间做尽调？ https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
原推 ↗英文原文
I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6
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感叹订阅数接近 Elon，并提到自己关注的冷门想法
太离谱了……我的订阅数已经过半追上 Elon 了。 还差 2.4 万，我就会成为整个 X 平台第一。 想到一个普通人分享像 $LPK 到 $SOI 这种小众 AI 想法…… 居然有机会成为最大平台上最受欢迎的人，还是觉得很不真实。 https://t.co/MsuqG95Y3p
原推 ↗英文原文
Unreal… I’m over halfway there to Elon in subscriber count. 24K more and I’ll be #1 on the entire X platform! Feels surreal that a random person sharing their thoughts about niche AI ideas from $LPK to $SOI …. Has a chance to be the most popular one on the largest platform? https://t.co/MsuqG95Y3p
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回顾自己早期看多 Soitec 后的巨大涨幅
我第一次做多 Soitec 的时候，股价涨了 30%。 当时欧洲分析师还说这没什么新东西。 现在 $SOI 已经涨了几百个百分点。 https://t.co/ElgiQPMNhP
原推 ↗英文原文
When I first went long on Soitec and the price rose 30%. I had European analysts saying that there was nothing new about it. Now $SOI up a few hundred percent. https://t.co/ElgiQPMNhP
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认为 CPO 是对所有光子公司都成立的新机会
$LITE 原本已经把 EML 和现有 pluggable optical transceivers 的价值定价进去了。 CPO 对所有光子公司来说，都是一个全新的机会，也是巨大的 TAM 扩张。 这是一次重大的架构变化，像 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这种过去没怎么受益的公司，也会明显受益。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE was priced in for EML and current pluggable optical transceivers. CPO is a completely new opportunity and massive TAM expansion for all photonics players. It's a massive architectural shift, and completely new optical companies benefit like $SIVE or $SOI that didn't as much before.
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LITE财报后市场误读CPO利好导致光学股被错杀，CPO超级周期才刚开始。
我认为很多人会很惊讶地发现，股票并不会直线上涨。 今天： 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE 再到 $AAOI，激光类公司分别下跌 -8.0%、-10.2% 和 -4.38%。 台湾涉及共封装光学(CPO)概念的公司如 MSSCorps、Shunsin 以及相关公司 Win Semi 跌停 -10%。 $AXTI 和 $SOI 分别下跌 -7% 和 -10.2%。 这是在 $LITE 发布财报之后。 我非常确定，市场错过了财报电话会议中关于 CPO 概念的强烈利好信号，但对于 $SIVEF 或 Shunsin 这样的 CPO 概念股来说，这是极度看涨的，然而算法交易却卖出了所有光学股。 这仍然是整个 CPO 超级周期的非常早期的阶段。 在任何量能上升之前。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%. After $LITE reported earnings. Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical. This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve. Before any volume ramp.
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认为 LITE 已确认 CPO 超级周期和 TAM 扩张
$LITE 的 CEO 基本上确认了 GS 的 TAM 扩张和 CPO 超级周期。 从接近 0 到 910 亿美元。H2 2026 到 2028： “我认为我们已经说过，CPO 会有巨大的供需失衡” 需求大于供给。 “最大的单一增长驱动，scale-up CPO” 巨大的收入驱动就是 CPO。 “现在还非常处于早期”。 我们正站在起点。 这正是为什么我会持有 $SIVE、MSSCorps、Shunsin、$TSEM、$SOI 等，去获得对 CPO 超级周期起点的高 beta 暴露。
原推 ↗英文原文
$LITE CEO basically confirmed GS TAM expansion + CPO Supercycle. From ~close to nothing -> $91B. From H2 2026 to 2028: “ I think what we’ve said is that we will have a massive supply demand imbalance on CPO” Demand > Supply. “Largest single growth driver, scale-up CPO” Massive revenue driver is CPO. “is very much in its infancy”. We’re at the beginnings. This is exactly why I have positions in $SIVE, MSScorps, Shunsin, $TSEM, $SOI and others for high beta exposure to the start of the CPO supercycle.
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强调自己从未见过比 CPO 更牛的板块
再强调一次我的难以置信： 我从来没见过比 CPO 更看多的板块。 GS 把光学 TAM 从 2026 年的 150 亿美元 -> 2028 年的 1540 亿美元，增长 9 倍。 其中 CPO 就占了 910 亿美元。 从今天大约 1.64 亿美元的采样阶段（Modor 的 2026 估算）一路到 910 亿美元（GS 2028），这条曲线就是 55,000%+ 的增长。 这正是为什么算法 / 分析师会犯错，因为他们只会看这些 CPO 名字的 TTM 营收。 但接下来两年里一切都会发生在 $SIVE、Shunsin、MSSCorps、$SOI 这些名字身上。 这是在 $NVDA 推动下，从 0 到 100 的巨大架构转移。 我真的不认为散户或市场已经明白接下来会发生什么。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just reiterating my disbelief: I have never seen a sector more bullish than CPO. GS reported Optical TAM 9X from $15b in 2026 -> US$154b in 2028 CPO making up $91B of that. Starting from ~$164M (Modor for 2026 / sampling) to $91 Billion (GS 2028) 55,000%+ CPO growth curve starting from today This is exactly why algorithms / analysts mess up because they might look at TTM revenue at these CPO names. But everything happens in the next two years with $SIVE to Shunsin to MSSCorps to $SOI. This is Zero to 100 from a massive architectural shift pushed by $NVDA. I genuinely still don't think retail or markets understand what's coming yet.
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博主回顾过往精准预测成绩，坚信$SIVE光子学投资逻辑正确
确实...我确实预测过： $AXTI 从 $12 -> $105 $SOI 从 $43 -> $145 $TSEM 从 $110 -> $218 $AAOI 从 $30 -> $180 $IQE 从 $13 -> $46 $LITE 从 $363 -> $1000 $AEHR 从 $30 -> $85 (如果算上siph业务板块) 这些都是作为独立论点帖发布的...还有去年类似的 $COHR 和 Innolight... 我认为 $SIVE 目前是争议最大的，但我真的认为我是对的。 感觉我在光子学(photonics)领域看到了一些别人看不到的东西？
原推 ↗英文原文
True… I did call: $AXTI $12 -> $105 $SOI $43-> $145 $TSEM $110 -> $218 $AAOI $30 -> $180 $IQE $13 -> $46 $LITE $363 -> $1000 $AEHR $30 -> $85 (if you count siph segment) As individual thesis posts… and others like $COHR and Innolight last year… I think $SIVE is the most debated right now, but I do think I’m right. Feels like I’m seeing something others don’t with photonics?
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感叹 SOI 涨幅巨大
我可能真的挺擅长这个？ $SOI 已经涨得离谱了，哈哈。 https://t.co/djx1SNJTmy
原推 ↗英文原文
I might be pretty good at this? $SOI up enormous amounts lol. https://t.co/djx1SNJTmy
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看到 SOI 和 LPK 一路上涨很开心
说实话，这还不错？ 看到市场在验证我的 thesis 帖子……像 $SOI（硅光基板）和 $LPK（玻璃核心基板）都在一路向上，感觉挺好。
原推 ↗英文原文
Honestly not too bad? Cool to see markets validate my thesis posts… With $SOI (silicon photonic substrates) to $LPK (glass core substrates) going in a straight line up . https://t.co/yQbidG44we
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解读 GS 光学 TAM 9 倍增长的 CPO 细节
Goldman Sachs 关于 Optical Networking 的预测。 整体 TAM 会增长 9 倍： 从 150 亿美元到 1540 亿美元。 CPO 占其中 910 亿美元。 这到底是什么情况？ 对，这也是为什么像 $LITE、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这类名字值得关注。
原推 ↗英文原文
Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking. Aggregate TAM would increase 9x: From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B. What the actual? Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging). This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.
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回顾自己提前抓住多轮超级周期
去年我提前点出了 $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$AXTI 和 Innolight…… 今年： 我找到了 $SOI，也就是 SiPH substrate，相当于 $AXTI。 然后又找到了 $SIVE，也就是 laser chokepoint。
原推 ↗英文原文
Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?
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嘲讽Bernstein的$35目标价错误，机构唱空却在暗中做多，散户不应盲从机构预测。
我在1月份就说过Bernstein给$INTC定$35目标价简直是个小丑。他们只会乱给目标价。散户恐慌抛售正是他们的有意目的。而其他机构却在悄悄做多（从$SOI就能看出）。现在你读这些报告唯一的原因，就是从中寻找之前没有公开过的细微信息。然后自己推导市值预期。英特尔现在$100，在他们给$35目标价之后。机构不是你的朋友。
原推 ↗英文原文
I called out Bernstein for being a clown when they gave $INTC a $35 price target in Jan. They just slap dumb PTs. Retail panic sells as an intended consequence. While the other institutions silently go long (as seen with $SOI). Only reason you should read these anymore is for any nuances they drop that wasn’t public before. Then derive your own MC projection. Intel is now $100 after their $35 PT. Institutions are not your friends.
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总结自己这个月的收益表现
我这个月收益还不错。 从 $AAOI 涨 100% 到 $SOI 涨 153.9%。 $SNDK +70%、$INTC +97.7%、$MRVL +54%、$ARM +41.5% 对我个人来说都算跑输。 但整体看还是挺猛的。
原推 ↗英文原文
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
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揭示机构借媒体打压股价后建仓的套路，批评机构非散户友军。
$SIVE是一场从瑞典本地投资者到美国投资者的巨额财富转移。本地人等待了很多很多年，期待所有激光研发能在共封装光学(CPO)和硅光子学(silicon photonics)上得到回报。但现在随着超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)的量产出货在2026年下半年至2027年上半年，他们却得不到任何上涨收益，因为在信任当地媒体后把股票转让给了美国/西方投资者。我的预测是，如果Sivers在纳斯达克达到40-80亿美元，我们会看到同样的媒体待遇。然后股票又从美国散户转移到美国机构。你已经在这场底部看到了同样的剧本，比如$IQE和$SOI...当时机构发布"研报"说Soitec被高估了。一个月后股价涨了3倍，因为摩根士丹利恰好买入$SOI流通股的6.5%...或者Point72买入$IQE。机构不是你的朋友。不过我是在为散户的最佳利益着想。
原推 ↗英文原文
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors. Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics. And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media. My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US. Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions. You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued. The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE. Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.
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说自己点中的多只光子股都涨了三倍
@vz921 我猜自己点中 $AAOI、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$SOI、$AEHR 这些，今年都涨了 3 倍，是运气好？
原推 ↗英文原文
@vz921 I guess it’s just luck calling out $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $SOI, $AEHR, and others that all went up 3x this year?
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认为 SOI 已经三倍，后面空间变小
@I_Am_Blacked 我的意思是 $SOI 真的已经涨了 3 倍……所以从这里再涨 3 倍就不太可能了。 也许未来一年再涨 100% 到 150% 还是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@I_Am_Blacked I mean $SOI literally just went up 3x... So less likely to 3x from here. Maybe another 100%-150% over the next year seems plausible.
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感叹 SOI 六周三倍像是穿越未来
我是不是来自未来？ $SOI 就这样在 6 周内直线涨到 3 倍…… https://t.co/ZW5Bafgvmq
原推 ↗英文原文
wtf am I from the future or something? $SOI just in a straight line up to a 3x return in 6 weeks… https://t.co/ZW5bAfgvmq
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机构开始买入光子链条
@ravietweet 摩根士丹利现在最终持有了 $SOI 6.5% 的股份，这也是我另一只硅光多头。 我就是要把 AI 的结构性卡点展示给散户看，赶在机构理解之前…… Point72、$MTSI 和其他机构在我发出那篇 thesis 之后，也买了 $IQE 的流通股。
原推 ↗英文原文
@ravietweet Morgan Stanley now ended up holding 6.5% of $SOI, which was my other silicon photonics long. I’m do show retail the structural chokepoints in AI before institutions figure it out… Point72, $MTSI and others ended up buying $IQE float after my thesis post too.
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SOI 继续大涨
$SOI 这波已经很快拿到 +200% 的收益了。 如果你听我的，Soitec 今天又涨了 13.62%，对吗，匿名网友？ 我很喜欢这一点：当我最早提出这套 thesis 时，机构还告诉大家别在涨到 +30% 时买。 现在又翻了 2 倍…… 很多 X 账号之所以变火，就是因为大家不再相信“机构分析师评论”了，因为很多人其实是在和散户作对。
原推 ↗英文原文
Well that was a fast +200% gain with $SOI. Soitec up another 13.62% today if you listened anon? I love how when I first put out this thesis, institutions were telling people not to buy at +30%. Now it’s up another 2x… Reason a lot of X accounts get popular is people stopped trusting “institutional analyst commentary” since many work against retail.
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机构会慢慢吸筹再提示散户
这是真的。 我在 $SOI 还在 40 美元时点出来后，银行分析师里有几个人就开始阴阳怪气，之后它又涨了 125%。 $SIVE 也是一样，它已经涨了几百个百分点，而且还在继续涨。 但这些机构最后又会在 $IQE 到 $AXTI 这些名字上买回去。 通常机构会在几个月里悄悄吸筹，不抬价格，同时从散户手里拿走流通盘。 然后等涨很多了、自己已经持有公司 5% 之后，再回头告诉散户。 但如果市场更快地把这些因素定价进去，机构就只能在更高的位置买。 这本质上就是在超周期标的上抢跑机构。
原推 ↗英文原文
This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
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大回调只是图上的小波纹
一个大幅回调在整体走势图里看起来只是一个小小的波纹，这一点其实挺说明问题的。 这说明 “Serenity Stocks” 随时间的表现会怎样？ 除此之外，我开始觉得大家对预期定得太高了。 现在如果 $SOI 或 $HPS.A 不是每天涨 10%，大家就会失望。可在以前，年化 15% 回报都已经算很好了。 这种回调从拉远看其实很正常，哪怕它们有些还是美国媒体自己造成的。 通常如果某样东西是多年光学超级周期的核心组件……或者像变压器/开关设备那样积压了好几年。 晚上睡觉会轻松很多。
原推 ↗英文原文
The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts. Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time? That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high. Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good. Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media. Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear. It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
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CPO / 玻璃基板 / 光学测试分工
@wdh37 $SIVE 用于 CPO / 1.6T 激光 $LPK 用于玻璃核心基板 Shunsin 用于光学测试 / 封装。 我也喜欢很多别的名字，比如 $HPS.A 或 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers $LPK for glass core substrates Shunsin for optical test/packaging. Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.
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SOI 估值还没到 40B
@TLEROY5 我不认为 $SOI 会变成 400 亿美元公司，也许一年后会到 80 亿到 120 亿美元。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TLEROY5 I don't see $SOI becoming a $40B company, maybe $~8B-12B in a year.
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SOI 目前还只涨了 160%
@TLEROY5 $SOI 到现在也就涨了大约 160%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@TLEROY5 $SOI is only up like 160% so far.
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光子链条整体都在涨
光子学起飞。 $MXL +76.2%（哈哈） $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% 希望你没有卖掉以后去追别的卡点，匿名网友？ https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics go brrr. $MXL +76.2% (lol) $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
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SOI 是硅光基板垄断
对，像这种就是最好的例子。$SOI 是硅光所需基板的垄断者。 法国监管机构已经注意到了。但欧洲很多国家都在配合把技术转移给中共。 唯一能阻止这件事的，就是足够的美国持股或者足够的公众认知。
原推 ↗英文原文
Yes stuff like this is the perfect example. $SOI is a monopoly over substrates needed for silicon photonics. French regulators caught on. But there's so many European nations that are complicit in technology transfer to the CCP. Only thing to prevent this is enough American ownership or awareness.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
原推 ↗英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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LPK 玻璃基板卡点很稀有
我猜市场会喜欢像 $LPK 这种玻璃核心基板敞口？ 这类公司很稀有，能持有类似 $SOI 那种位置。 就像一只闪光的 Zigzagoon……能找到这些卡点。 https://t.co/pjsjxgDhTa
原推 ↗英文原文
I guess markets like glass core substrate exposure like $LPK? It is pretty rare to find these types of companies that hold positions that resemble $SOI. Like a Shiny Zigzagoon… finding these chokepoints. https://t.co/pjsjxgDhTa
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不要只看 meme 标签
就在一个月前，记者和媒体还在淡化我对 $SOI 和 $RPI 的 thesis。 他们引用我的 WSB 标签，把它说成是“注定要崩的 meme 股”，却没有分析底层 thesis。 结果这两只都涨了 100%，而且把涨幅守住了。 $SIVE 现在也是同样的情况。 我从来不靠权威说话……但既然他们想走这条路： 我就很好奇……他们的叙事里为什么总把我在 Nature 之类的地方发表过、被引用上千次的基础 AI 论文背景漏掉？ 又或者为什么今天 X 上那些看多 $SIVE 的分析师里，有些人是 UC Berkeley 的 Ph.D.，而且本身就在光子学领域发文？ 反而总是英语系或非技术背景的毕业生跑去媒体上，对 CPO 超大规模云厂商认证周期和供应链映射发表最强硬的意见。 我总觉得机构最不喜欢的，就是散户投资者在 X 上真的懂自己在说什么。 一个 thesis 应该靠本身的价值生死，而不是发言人是什么权威。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just 1 month ago, journalists and media tried downplaying my $SOI and $RPI thesis. As “meme stocks that were set to crash” citing my WSB tag without analyzing the underlying thesis. They’re both up 100% and held their gains. Same is happening to companies like $SIVE. I never argue from authority… but since they’re going that route: I’m curious why… in their narratives they just leave out the fact I published fundamental AI papers in places like Nature with thousands of citations? Other the fact other analysts on X positive about $SIVE today have Ph.Ds from places like UC Berkeley and publish in the photonics space? It’s always the English or non-technical graduates that go out in the media and have the strongest opinion about CPO hyperscaler qualification cycles and supply chain mapping. It just feels like institutions hate it when a retail investors on X know what they’re talking about. A thesis should live and die based on merit, not the authority of who is comes from.
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欧洲半导体也在起飞
哇……欧洲股票也在起飞。 $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% 当像 Soitec 这种 40 多亿美元市值的公司一天涨 10%+，这大概率就是机构买盘，像 IQE 和 Point72 那样。 https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
原推 ↗英文原文
Woah... European stocks go brrr. $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% When $4B+ MC companies like Soitec go up 10%+ a day, this is likely institutional buying as seen with IQE and Point72. https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
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SOI 跑赢了很多
@artazc44161 对，$SOI 自从我发 thesis 帖之后已经涨了 140%+。 这就是抢跑机构，Serenity 的打法。
原推 ↗英文原文
@artazc44161 Yeah $SOI is up 140%+ since my thesis post. This is what you call, frontrunning instituions with Serenity.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
原推 ↗英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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分享想法是为了帮散户
真心感谢大家的好评。 我最终还是把自己的想法免费分享出来，因为我想帮助散户社区。 $TSEM 已经实现了三位数回报……所以 YTD 里有 16 个不同名字都涨了很多。 因此我的年内回报也达到了 1525%+。 顺便回顾一下一路上的各种攻击和骚扰： 1. $AXTI - “拉高出货”、“中国垃圾股”，还因为 AXT 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元，WSB $RDDT 的版主把我封了，理由是投资者真的赚到钱了。 2. $AAOI - “没有基本面的拉盘股，meme 股” 3. $SIVEF - “拉高出货” “meme 股” 4. $LITE - “光子泡沫” 5. $IQE - “就是在拉小市值股” 6. $AEHR - “营收负增长的股票，为什么大家不去看他而要花 2000 多美元买我的订阅？” 7. $CRCL - “TA 说它会跌到 30 美元” 8. $EWY - “只是从关注者那儿来的” （提示，这是韩国指数） 9. Unimicron - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 10. Nitto Boseki - “这个点子没用，给我美国股票” 11. $OSS - 抄想法（不，我对委内瑞拉的整合是原创） 12. $GDRZF - “你是个很糟糕的人，居然想从委内瑞拉战争里赚钱” 13. $RPI - “因为你是 meme trader，所以这就是 meme 股”（FT、欧洲媒体） 14. $SOI - “拉高出货”、“没有新意”（随机分析师） 15. $ALRIB - “拉小市值股”（不，这是 $MSFT 量子信息发现） 16. $TSEM - “只是因为关注者才买”（兄弟，这是 250 亿美元以上的公司，这些都是机构） 还是那句话……关于基本面的判断一直都是对的？我只是提前把信息整合 / 发现分享出来，赶在机构发现之前。 散户和媒体应该庆祝 16+ 个不同想法年内都涨了 100%+，因为股票本来就是正和游戏。 散户、公司和本地经济都受益。 结果却是负面情绪满天飞，大家一直在试图贬低 / 淡化这些想法，就像抢跑光子超级周期……即便这些想法最后都证明是对的？ 这些喷子开始影响到我了，从 $IREN 那帮人每天换新账号发现实威胁，到欧洲媒体对“拉高出货”的虚假叙事……因为我确实会读每条评论。 但注意看……95% 的东西都在涨？而且 Point72 和 Apollo 这种机构最后都买了我提到的名字？ 这种评论确实有助于让我继续留在 X 上，而且我确实喜欢在喷子身上打回去。
原推 ↗英文原文
Genuinely thanks for nice comments. I share my ideas for free in the end though since I want to help out the retail community. $TSEM hit triple digit return... so that's 16 different names YTD. So my YTD hit 1525%+ as a result. Just to recap all the endless abuse and harassment along the way: 1. $AXTI - "Pump and Dump", "Scam Chinese Stock", Got banned from WSB $RDDT after Mods got mad investors actually made money AXT going from $12->$80. 2. $AAOI - "Pumping stock with no fundamentals, Meme stock" 3. $SIVEF - "Pump and Dump" "Meme Stock" 4. $LITE - "Photonics Bubble" 5. $IQE - "Just pumping low MC stocks" 6. $AEHR - "Stock with negative revenue growth, why is anyone following this guy and not paying $2,000+ for my subscription?" 7. $CRCL - "TA says it's going down to $30" 8. $EWY - "Just from followers" (hint, it's the South Korean Index) 9. Unimicron - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 10. Nitto Boseki - "Idea is useless give me US stocks" 11. $OSS - Stealing Ideas (no, my synthesis around Venezuela was novel) 12. $GDRZF - "You're a terrible human trying to profit off of the War in Venezuela" 13. $RPI - "Meme stock all because of a Meme Trader" (FT, European Media). 14. $SOI - "Pump and dump", "no novel idea" (random analysts) 15. $ALRIB - "Pumping low MC stocks" (no, it's $MSFT quantum information discovery) 16. $TSEM - "Pumping based on followers alone" (bro it's $25B+, these are institutions) Or how about... the idea around fundamentals was right all along? And I'm just sharing information synthesis/discovery before institutions find out about them. Retail and media should be celebrating when 16+ different ideas return 100%+ YTD, since stocks are positive sum. Everyone from retail, the companies, and local economies benefits. Instead, negativity is through the roof and people keep trying to diminish/downplay the ideas like frontrunning the photonics supercycle… even when they actually turn out right? The trolls are starting to get to me, from $IREN folks creating new accounts every day just to send IRL threats, to European media disinformation about "pumping and dumping"... since I do read every comment. But notice... how 95% of things keep going up? And institutions like Point72 and Apollo end up buying the names I mention? Comments like this do make it helpful to stay on X, and I do enjoy taking victory laps on the haters.
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说投资不是团队游戏，SOI 还会再翻倍。
@Jornka329996 投资不是团队运动。 另外我还是觉得像 $SOI 这样的名字，未来一年还会再翻倍。 这全都是机构在买，我只是教散户怎么抢在他们前面。 就让对冲基金干活，然后享受过程吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jornka329996 Investing is not a team game. Also I still think names like $SOI double again in the next year. This is all institutional buying, I’m just teaching retail how to frontrun them. Just let the hedge funds do their work and enjoy the ride
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回顾自己在 WSB 被封和多只名字被骂空的经历。
一个有意思的事实：我在 WSB 子版块里因为 $AXTI 从 12 美元涨到 80 美元以上而被封了，原因是版主气得不行，因为它一直涨，而且后来证明我是对的。 像 $RPI 这种名字因为“meme stock”叙事被无休止地攻击，连 FT 和新闻媒体都这样……但最后还是翻倍了。 $SOI 之类的名字也被无穷无尽地骂成拉盘砸盘。 $SIVE 之类的名字也被无休止地攻击，带着一堆瑞典式的酸味。 $AEHR 之类的也一样。 还有 $SOI，也一直被人喷成“肯定别人比我先建仓了”。 我也不知道……只要你是第一个发现的人，就会招来一大堆仇恨评论。等它变成 50-100 亿美元市值、涨了 1000%+ 之后，大家才会说“哦，原来可以做多啊”。
原推 ↗英文原文
Fun fact I got banned on WSB subreddit after $AXTI went from $12 to $80+ because Mods got mad it kept going up and played out correctly. Names like $RPI got endless harassment over "meme stock" narratives. Including FT and news media... but it ended up doubling anyway. Names like $SOI, endless pump and dump harassment. Names like $SIVE, endless Swedish salt harassment. Names like $AEHR, endless harassment. Names like $SOI, endless harassment thinking someone else went long before I did. Idk... whenever you're first to something, it's just a ton of hate comments. And only after it's a $5-10B+ company after going up 1000%+ is it "okay" to go long.
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列出自己年内成功翻倍数百倍的 15 只股票。
很高兴听到这个！ 我已经做多并写过 thesis 帖子的股票，大概有 15 只，今年回报达到了 100-1000%+？ 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 还不算像 $TSEM 这种，接下来一个月也快要接近三位数回报的名字。 因为我在网上免费发想法，结果招来这么多仇恨，真的挺离谱。 也开始能理解为什么有些人干脆搞 2 万美元的付费墙，把信息卖给西方机构，而不是去帮那些酸溜溜的散户（尤其是欧洲那边）。 不过这些正面评论也让我更有动力继续发帖。
原推 ↗英文原文
Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
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说 SOI 已是今年第 16 只翻倍股。
哇，$SOI 现在已经成了我第 16 只…… 我今年写过的 mini thesis 里，已经有一只回报超过 100% 了。 最近两只是 $ALRIB 和 $RPI。 为什么我身边的一切都在翻倍？ https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow $SOI is now the 16th name... I've done a mininthesis post on that returned over 100% Year to Date. The most recent two were $ALRIB and $RPI. Why does everything around me keep doubling? https://t.co/ttgmKWEhhU
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建议看下一轮光子周期，不必畏惧已涨多的名字。
如果你对像 $LITE 这种已经涨了很多的名字感到不舒服，你可以去看看下一轮光子周期的曝光。 像鸿海光学封装业务 Shunsin 这种我真的很喜欢……或者 $SIVE 这种 1.6T / CPO 激光，即使在现在这个价位也是。 $SOI 也还有很多空间。 分几天做成本均摊也没坏处。
原推 ↗英文原文
If you're uncomfortable with names that already went up a lot like $LITE, you can try for exposure in the next optical cycle. Stuff like Shunsin for Foxconn's optical packaging arm i genuinely really liked... or $SIVE for 1.6T/CPO lasers, even at current levels. $SOI still has a lot of room to go. Doesn't hurt to cost average over multiple days.
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说 IQE 可能很快会超过 AXTI 的传奇 thesis。
我对 $IQE 的判断……可能很快就会超过我那篇传奇的 $AXTI thesis？ 才过了 2 个月： 现在在机构开始公开买入后，涨幅已经超过 +316%，而且还在继续涨。 欧洲那边像 $ALRIB、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这种关键瓶颈股最近也很有意思。 我觉得它们从现在开始大概率还会再复合出三位数涨幅，即使已经涨了一大截。 散户这还是第一次这么早。 所以，预计很快会有大量机构资金涌入这些关键供应链公司，尤其是 $SIVE，等 NASDAQ 上市之后。
原推 ↗英文原文
My $IQE call… might actually outperform my legendary $AXTI thesis soon? It’s only been 2 months: Now it's up over +316% after institutions started publicly buying… and keeps going up. Fun time for critical chokepoints like $ALRIB, $SIVE, and $SOI recently in Europe. Probably expect them all to compound another triple digits from here, even after all their rallies. Retail is just extremely early for the first time. So, expect a lot of institutional capital to pour into these critical supply chains companies soon, especially $SIVE after Nasdaq listing.
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作者解释其研究方法论：提前发现被低估的小盘股，在机构买入前将信息分享给散户
不。这种扯淡的思维模式该停止了。 我的做法是在这些股票实现100-500%+回报之前，先向散户指出它们。 美国机构如Point72或Apollo最终会把它们买下来的。 1. $IQE上涨是因为它们坐拥全球最大的InP反应器隐性代工产能，当时市值仅1亿欧元，而Landmark等公司交易在38亿美元。 它们还是$LITE的供应商，而光子学/epiwafer需求今年爆发了。 2. $SIVE上涨是因为它们与$JBL和O-Net签订了新协议。 但当我首次建仓时，它们还鲜为人知——作为$MRVL CPO项目的激光供应商。 如果我没有引起关注，像$AVGO这样的美国机构很可能会像高通收购Alphawave那样，直接收购这家公司——在openlight那边发生的事情。 那样的话瑞典散户投资者就得不到任何上涨收益了。 3. $ALRIB上涨是因为它们的财报将市盈率压低至远期26倍，尽管在MBE领域与$VECO保持双头垄断地位。 加上新的SiPH设备，以及$IQE和QD Laser（量子点）都是它们的客户。 这是我十年来最原始的信息发现——原来$MSFT Quantum是它们的买家。 你不会看到直接的超大规模云厂商前沿量子计算项目依赖一家市值不到10亿美元的公司。 4. $SOI上涨208%是因为它在硅光子学和CPO用的SOI基材上拥有不为人知的垄断地位。 这更多是信息整合加上在它们传统业务周期底部买入的时机把握。 5. $RPI上涨是因为财报和AI硬件使用量。 我只是第一个指出它的人。 我预测营收增长55%，而分析师预测14%。它们实际做到了58%。 我只是给了散户在机构有机会发现并定价之前买入的机会。 即使我不发我的分析报告，这只股票也会基于纯基本面上涨——作为一家无晶圆厂公司，你不可能用5亿美元市值做出5.11亿美元营收。 我只是给散户在机构之前获得信息发现的所有机会。 这与那些机构告诉你买指数基金或已经涨了1500%的股票——让你当退出流动性的完全不同的模式。
原推 ↗英文原文
No. This type of BS mindset needs to stop. What I do is point them out to retail first before the 100-500%+ returns. US institutions like Point72 or Apollo would have bought them out eventually. 1. $IQE went up because they're sitting on the most latent merchant capacity in the world for InP reactors back at a 100M euro marketcap. While companies like Landmark were trading at $3.8B. They were also the supplier to $LITE, and photonics/epiwafer demand took off this year. 2. $SIVE went up because they had new deals with $JBL and O-Net. But they were already unknown as the laser supplier to $MRVL's CPO program when I first went long. American institutions like $AVGO would have likely just bought the company directly like what Qualcomm did with Alphawave over in the openlight side of things if I didn't bring attention to it. Then Swedish retail investors wouldn't get any of the upside. 3. $ALRIB went up because their earnings sent their P/E down to fwd 26, despite holding a duopoly in the MBE category with $VECO. This combined with new SiPH equipment, as well as $IQE + QD Laser (for quantum dot) being their customers. This was combined from raw information discovery of the decade that $MSFT Quantum was their buyer. You don't see direct hyperscaler frontier programs in quantum computing dependant on some <$1B MC company. 4. $SOI is up 208% because it has an unknown monopoly over SOI substrates for silicon photonics and CPO. This was more information synthesis combined with timing the bottom of their legacy cycle. 5. $RPI went up because of earnings and AI hardware usage. I was just the very first person to point it out. I projected 55% revenue growth compared to 14% from analysts. They did 58%. I just gave retail the chance to buy it before institutions. The stock would have gone up off of pure fundamentals without me posting my thesis because you don't do $511m in revenue off a $500m MC as a fabless company. I'm just giving retail the all the information discovery before institutions have a chance to find it and price it in. This is a completely different model than the same institutions telling you to buy index funds or stocks that already went up 1500% so you're exit liquidity.
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批评欧洲投资者在底部卖出本土优质公司股票，错失大涨后被美国投资者接盘的现象。
纯粹出于好奇。为什么欧洲人讨厌自己国家的市场？如果看看我所有的核心长仓股票：$IQE今年迄今上涨837%，$SIVE上涨385%，$ALRIB上涨258%，$SOI上涨208%，$RPI上涨107%。当地分析师和记者不断释放负面情绪。但这些公司都是各自国家的国家安全瑰宝（除了树莓派Raspberry Pi）。当地人最终都在底部卖出所有股票，然后股票就转移到美国投资者和机构手中。然后他们就享受不到任何上涨红利。如果像Riber这样的公司被$MSFT用于量子领域，并以26倍市盈率交易，在美国估值会超过16亿美元，就像$LWLG一样。但如果这类公司有任何估值溢价，人们就会酸溜溜的。我见过的对外资最感激的群体是日本人，大多数人都非常欢迎。我认为欧洲人应该为自己领先的前沿公司感到骄傲，因为它们正在受益于西方资本。这样它们才能扩大产能，满足美国超大规模云服务商的需求？这对公司、本地经济都是正和效应。这种落后的思维模式现象需要改变。
原推 ↗英文原文
Out of curiosity. Why do Europeans hate their own markets? If you look at all my core longs: $IQE up 837% YTD $SIVE up 385% YTD $ALRIB up 258% YTD $SOI up 208% YTD $RPI up 107% YTD It’s just endless salt coming from local analysts and reporters. But they’re the national security gems in each country (aside from Raspberry Pi). Locals end up selling all their shares at the bottom, then it just transferred to American investors and institutions. Then they don’t get any of the upside. If a company like Riber is used by $MSFT quantum and traded at a 26 p/e, it would be $1.6B+ in the US like $LWLG. But people are salty if it has a valuation premium at all. The only appreciative community for foreign capital I’ve seen are Japanese, and most have been incredibly welcoming. I feel like Europeans should be proud their leading frontier companies, are benefiting from Western capital. So they can scale up production needed for American hyperscalers? It’s a positive sum effect on the company, and the local economies as well. This backward mindset phenomenon needs to change.
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Soitec 反弹后继续看好 CPO/硅光主线。
自从我发出 TLDR 版 thesis 后，Soitec 现在一个月涨了 64%。 很多人在我发帖后又因为伊朗 / 宏观回调，把 $SOI 说成“没有基本面的 meme 股”。 但我的多头，尤其是像 $SIVE 这类会延伸到 2029 年的 CPO / Silicon Photonics 相关标的…… 有时候就是需要时间兑现？ 它在衬底层面是真正的垄断，而且它那些旧业务拖累板块也很可能正在见底。
原推 ↗英文原文
Soitec is now up 64% in 1 month since my TLDR thesis post. Lot of people made fun of $SOI as a “no fundamentals meme stock” when it corrected after I posted (because of Iran/macro). But my longs, especially with CPO/Silicon Photonics related stuff like $SIVE that scales into 2029. Sometimes just need time to play out? It’s a genuine monopoly in the substrate layer and it’s likely bottoming in their legacy drag segments.
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说自己最近 thesis 的一堆名字都跑赢大盘。
它们还在那儿。 只是现在已经很难说什么了…… 当我最近写出来的 thesis，像 $HPS.A、$IQE、$AXTI、$SIVE、$AAOI、$LITE、$NBIS、Win、Shunsin、$AEHR、$TSEM、$SOI 以及更多很多很多我提到的名字…… 都就是在持续跑赢市场。 年内 +1,116.29% 还不算差，对吧 chat？
原推 ↗英文原文
They’re still there. It’s just hard to say anything…. When all my recent thesis posts from $HPS.A, $IQE, $AXTI, $SIVE, $AAOI, $LITE, $NBIS, Win, Shunsin, $AEHR, $TSEM, $SOI, and many many others I call out. Just hard outperforms the market. Year to date of +1,116.29% isn’t too bad, right chat?
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回调时可考虑 SOI 做衬底曝光。
@CryptoVandelay 如果周一有大跌，也许可以考虑 $SOI 做衬底端的曝光。
原推 ↗英文原文
@CryptoVandelay Maybe $SOI for substrates if there's any major drop on Monday.
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认为英伟达正在强力推动 CPO，相关时间点比市场预期更早。
$NVDA 正在非常、非常强力地推动 CPO。 从 $MRVL、$LITE 和 $COHR 的投入就能看出来。 不过有意思的是，CPO 的时间表也比预期早得多。 最新报道： “$ASE 据称将在 2026 年动工建设六座新工厂，CPO 量产预计将于今年开始” “他还首次透露，CPO 的量产预计将在今年启动” 现在可能正是提前布局 CPO 相关标的的好时机，比如 $SIVE（激光器）、Win Semi（晶圆代工）、$TSEM（晶圆代工）、$SOI（衬底）以及其他相关公司，在真正放量前先埋伏。 需求曲线会一路指数级上升，直到 2029 年以后，我相信很多预测都会被打穿。 总之，我之前在 OFC/GTC 前就一直说要提前布局 CPO / SiPh 标的。 结果时间点上我又判断对了？ 现在看起来 CPO 的放量要从 2026 年下半年开始，准备好吧。
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard. As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR. But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected. New report: " $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year " "He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year" Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up. The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections. But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC. Turned out I was right on timing again? CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.
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说自己持有的 AXTI 涨了很多，因此难以接受 SOI 表现落后。
@frsinvesting 是啊……我手里的 $AXTI 仓位已经涨了 770%，所以很难相信 $SOI 会表现差这么多。
原推 ↗英文原文
@frsinvesting Yeah.. my $AXTI positions are up 770% so can’t believe $SOI was underperforming by so much https://t.co/9cqcOnwnYg
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承认 Soitec 近月涨幅一般，在光子学篮子里表现落后。
抱歉各位，Soitec（$SOI）自上个月以来只涨了 39.28%。 不幸的是，它在我的光子学组合里是表现落后的那只。 不可能每一只都像 $AXTI 或 $AAOI 那样隔月就翻三位数。
原推 ↗英文原文
Sorry everyone, Soitec ( $SOI ) is only up 39.28% since last month. Unfortunately, they were an underperformer in my photonics basket. Not everything can go up triple digits every other month like $AXTI or $AAOI. https://t.co/OwlOzugf68
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称欧洲光子学板块回暖，受伊朗局势缓和及空头回补推动。
欧洲光子学板块终于重新活过来了。 今天： $IQE：上涨 10.78% $SOI：上涨 9.96% $SIVE：上涨 12.7% 这发生在 FT 的报道背景下： “由于欧洲对伊朗战争过度敏感，对欧洲股票的做空押注创下纪录。” 现在伊朗达成停火后，欧洲股市承压大概会明显缓解。
原推 ↗英文原文
European photonics sector finally coming back to life. Today: $IQE: up 10.78% $SOI: up 9.96% $SIVE: up 12.7% This is amid the FT report: “Hedge funds make record bets against European stocks” due to Europe’s hypersensitivity to the Iran War. Now that there’s a ceasefire in Iran, it’s likely we’ll see a lot of the pressure will get taken off of European equities.
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总结最近的 thesis，并补充自己长期看好的相关标的。
我最近分享的 5 篇 thesis 帖子： 1. $HPS.A（17.7 亿美元）- 变压器 / 开关设备的 DC 瓶颈 2. $ARM（1520 亿美元）- AI CPU 放量 3. Win Semi（57 亿美元）- 面向 CW 激光及从 SpaceX 到人形机器人等供应链的晶圆代工 4. $SIVE（2.95 亿美元）- 2026 年下半年及 2027 年的 CW 激光放量 5. $TSEM（220 亿美元）- 光子学晶圆代工 除此之外，我还看多并正面提到过的名字，比如 $MRVL、$AAOI、$RDDT、$NBIS、$RPI、$AEHR、$LITE、$COHR、SK Hynix、$LASR、$SOI、$IQE 等，也都可能是不错的补充。
原推 ↗英文原文
Most recent 5 thesis posts I've shared: 1. $HPS.A ($1.77B) - Transformer/Switchgear DC bottleneck 2. $ARM ($152B)- AI CPU ramp 3. Win Semi ($5.7B) - Foundry for CW lasers and other supply chains from SpaceX to humanoids 4. $SIVE ($295M) - CW Laser ramp for H2 2026 and 2027. 5. $TSEM ($22B) - photonics foundry Apart from those, names I've positively mentioned like $MRVL, $AAOI, $RDDT, $NBIS, $RPI, $AEHR, $LITE, $COHR, SK Hynix, $LASR, $SOI, $IQE, and others might be decent additions.
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认为 SOI 的 CPO / SiPh 放量需要时间，但下半年会逐步追上。
@Niatama195432 $SOI 的 CPO / SiPh 放量还需要一点时间。自从我最初的 thesis 以来，它也就涨了大约 11% 左右，不过这取决于入场价。 当前收发器周期里像 $AAOI 和 $LITE 这样的公司已经完成了重估，但我预计其他标的会在 H2 追上来。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Niatama195432 $SOI takes a bit of time for CPO/siph ramp. It's only up ~11% or so since my original thesis, but depends on entry point. Lot of the current transceiver cycle players like $AAOI and $LITE have re-rated currently, but I expect the others to catch up H2.
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承认 SOI 近期涨幅一般，并指出并非所有票都能像 LITE、AEHR、AAOI 那样强。
@Michael_Tran_90 是啊，$SOI 自从我买入以来也就涨了 11% 左右，挺遗憾的。 并不是所有票在这种宏观环境下都能像 $LITE、$AEHR 或 $AAOI 那样强势跑赢。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Michael_Tran_90 Yeah, $SOI is only up 11% from when I bought unfortunately. Not everything hard-outperforms this macro climate like $LITE, $AEHR, or $AAOI.
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总结 AXT、TSEM、SIVE、COHR、SOI 在各自瓶颈中的位置。
$AXTI 是瓶颈。 $TSEM 现在还不是，但我预计它在未来一两年里产能也会被打满。 $SIVE 即将进入 CW 激光周期。 $COHR 什么都做，EML 这块是强项，但在其他一些东西上就不是。 $SOI 严格来说不完全是瓶颈，但它在 SOI 衬底上是垄断地位，而这些衬底对 SiPh 和 CPO 都是必需的，所以这会让所有相关产品都带来显著的营收增长。
原推 ↗英文原文
$AXTI is a bottleneck. $TSEM not yet so far, but I'd expect it to be maxed out on capacity next year or two. $SIVE upcoming with CW lasers. $COHR does way too much, on EML yes, on other things no. $SOI not exactly a bottleneck but it's a monopoly over soi substrates, which are required for siph and cpo. so this leads to material revenue increases from everything that gets made.
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把内存仓位更集中到 SiPh/CPO 相关标的，并期待 SK 海力士和三星财报带来反弹。
@B38B37 我个人把内存相关仓位更多转向了 SiPh/CPO 相关的名字，比如 $AEHR、$SIVE 和 $SOI。 我现在还是有不少内存敞口，只是比今年早些时候少一些。不过我确实预计接下来 SK 海力士和三星的财报会再带来一轮上涨。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 I personally pivoted concentration in memory more toward siph/cpo names like $AEHR $SIVE and $SOI. I still have a good amount of memory exposure but less than earlier this year. However I do expect the upcoming sk Hynix and Samsung earnings to trigger another rally
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认为现在还很早，自己更偏好少数纯标的和更稳健的名字。
还不算晚进场，实际上还非常早，正处在下一个拐点的起点。 如果让我现在选两只更小、更纯的标的，我个人会喜欢 $SIVE 和 $AEHR，再加一只 $AAOI 也许不错。 更稳一点的话，Win、$SOI、$MRVL 看起来都很扎实？ 可选名字其实很多……
原推 ↗英文原文
Not really late too the party, it’s extremely early and at the beginning of the next inflection point. I personally like $SIVE, $AEHR if I had to pick two more smaller purer play companies around now, maybe throw in $AAOI on the next drop. For safer, Win, $SOI, $MRVL seem solid? Quite a lot of names…
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批评用传统模型建模CPO放量期收入，分享如何识别光子学超级周期中的纯正概念股。
请停止尝试为2025-2026年CPO/SiPH放量期的收入建立模型了……当我上个月在约115美元（现已四舍五入到200美元）查看$TSEM时，前瞻市盈率压缩至约16-18倍（在成长情景下低至10-12倍）。同样的逻辑也适用于$AEHR/$SIVE/$SOI/Win Semi等其他标的。这是2026年上半年。量产的放量将出现在2026年下半年。我们正处在一个大规模超级周期的最早期阶段，而这些是我在光子学下一代架构变革中最纯正的概念股配置：用于测试、CW激光器、衬底和晶圆代工的公司，在光子学超级周期的新范式转换中占有一席之地。像$LITE或$AAOI这样我去年长期持有的公司已经跨越了多个周期。然而，最大的回报来自于提前预判哪些公司将在未来收入/TAM增长中获得最大收益（这部分尚未反映在当前股价中）。不是用过去2年的历史回报来计算公允价值。而且当我们看一个庞大的新型光子学TAM（lightcounting的牛市情景预测为1100亿美元以上），主要由使用CW激光器作为示例的架构驱动，或在良率方面遇到挑战。许多这类公司很可能会出现大幅重新定价。尤其是当我们看到下一代架构变革开始发生时，时间点大约在2026年下半年。
原推 ↗英文原文
Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp… When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now). The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios) Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names. This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026. We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics: For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle. Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles. However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings). Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value. And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields. A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard. Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.
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回顾自己两年回报超过 5000%，并列出押中的多个产业链主题。
我刚刚意识到……上周我的回报已经到了 5,118.02%。 不到 2 年，5000%+ 还不错吧？ 即使考虑到通胀，现在 5 美元长三明治都在涨价，也挺难跟上。 我前面抢跑的主要方向包括： -> $MSTR 用来博减半 -> $RKLB 和 $HOOD 用来博太空 / 金融科技行情 -> $GOOGL 和 $TSM 用来博大盘科技行情 -> 三星、SK 海力士、亚洲股票，用来博存储 -> $LITE、$AXTI 和 $COHR，用来博 EML / 光子学 -> $SOI、$SIVE、$AEHR、$TSEM、Win，用来博 CW / SiPh / CPO 中间也有一些副业，比如委内瑞拉自然资源公司和无人机（结果没那么好）。 不过总体来说，我对市场接下来会发生什么的判断还算不错。 而且我确实认为光子学扩产会是下一波，尤其是聚焦 CW 激光公司、衬底、测试和晶圆代工。
原推 ↗英文原文
I just realized… hit 5,118.02% returns last week. 5000%+ not too bad in <2 years? Hard to keep up with $5 footlong sandwich inflation even after front running: -> $MSTR for halving -> $RKLB and $HOOD for space/fintech rally -> $GOOGL and $TSM for large cap rally -> Samsung, SK Hynix, Asian equities for memory -> $LITE, $AXTI, and $COHR for EML/photonics -> $SOI, $SIVE, $AEHR, $TSEM, Win for CW/SiPH/CPO. Some side quests here and there with Venezuelan natural resource companies and drones (that didn’t turn out as well). But generally market read has been decent so far on what’s coming next. And I do think scale up photonics is next, especially focusing on CW laser companies, substrates, testing and foundries.
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按类别列出自己喜欢的几只名字。
@FranGGlez 哦，每个类别来一只： 1. $MRVL 2. $SIVE 3. Win 4. $SOI 5. $LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
@FranGGlez Oh one from each category: 1. $MRVL 2. $SIVE 3. Win 4. $SOI 5. $LITE
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引用 Lightcounting 认为光互连到 2030 年可到 1000 亿美元，并列出自己偏好的链条标的。
Lightcounting："这不是笔误" 到 2030 年，光互连市场很有可能从 2025 年的约 190 亿美元增长到 1000 亿美元以上。 如果你想看我最喜欢的名字： 复合型：$MRVL、$SMTC CW 激光：$SIVE、$MTSI、$AAOI 晶圆代工：$TSEM、Win Semi 衬底 / 外延：$AXTI、$SOI、$IQE 黄金标准：$LITE、$COHR 下一轮 TAM 扩张的乘数，主要由 CPO / Scale Up 驱动，而这大多由 SiPh 和外部 CW 激光推动。
原推 ↗英文原文
Lightcounting: "This is not a typo" Optical interconnects has a reasonable chance to reach $100B+ by 2030 from ~$19B (2025). If you're looking for my favorite names: Compounders: $MRVL, $SMTC CW Lasers: $SIVE, $MTSI, $AAOI Foundries $TSEM, Win Semi Substrates/Epitaxy: $AXTI, $SOI, $IQE Gold Standard: $LITE, $COHR The next TAM expansion multiplier is CPO/Scale Up, largely driven by SiPh and external CW lasers.
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认为 SOI 近似 POET，风险不大。
@Berlinergy @ryansfinance $SOI 很像 $POET 那一类。 它的市价已经接近账面价值了，我个人看不出太大的下行风险。 上行空间更有限，但我觉得未来一年它还是有机会涨 200%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Berlinergy @ryansfinance $SOI fits in the $POET club. Trading close to book value, don’t see much downside risk personally. Upside is more limited but I can see it going up 200% over the next year.
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认为市场终于开始意识到，Nvidia 投资 Marvell 背后对应的是上游光子链重估。
市场终于开始意识到的事情： 下游：$NVDA 向 $MRVL 的 Celestial CPO 项目投资了 20 亿美元： $POET（Celestial 的 interposers）：财报里说今年要出货 3 万台光引擎。 $SIVE 是 Poet 和 Celestial 在 Marvell 光子路线图中近中期的光源。 Win Semi 是 InP CW 激光生产的晶圆代工。 而更上游的还有：$SOI / $AXTI 这些衬底，以及 $IQE 的外延片。 这就是下一轮光子学超级周期的起点，而且估值便宜得离谱。 而且这发生得比市场和机构在 2026 年预期的还要早，Nvidia 正在抢跑整条转变路径。 99.9% 的人只看到了 Marvell 下游的变化，但还没意识到上游的供应冲击会在哪里发生。
原推 ↗英文原文
Something that markets are finally starting to realize: Downstream: $NVDA invested $2B into $MRVL Celestial CPO program: $POET (Celestial’s Interposers): To ship 30,000 optical engines to ship this year from earnings today. $SIVE is the light source of Poet and Celestial for near/mid term Marvell photonics roadmap. Win Semi is the foundry for InP CW laser production. And even more upstream: $SOI / $AXTI for substrates and $IQE for epiwafers. This is the very start of the next photonics supercycle, at dirt cheap valuations. And it’s happening earlier than markets and institutions expected in 2026, with Nvidia frontrunning this entire shift. 99.9% of people see the changes happening downstream with Marvell, but don’t realize yet where the supply shocks will happen upstream.
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韩语回复，表示自己现在聚焦 CPO / SiPh，并纠正几项细节。
真的读得很有意思，谢谢你分享！ 你对最近这些事件的理解大多是对的！我最近也非常专注于 $SOI、$TSEM 等包含在 CPO（共同封装光学）/硅光子领域里的方向。 有几处小更正：5 亿到 10 亿美元（$500m - $1B）的规模更像是 Celestial 的事，而不是 $SIVE。不过还是挺有意思，也读得很过瘾。
原推 ↗英文原文
정말 재미있게 읽었습니다. 공유해 주셔서 감사합니다! 최근 이슈들에 대한 내용은 대부분 정확하네요! 저는 요즘 $SOI나 $TSEM 등을 포함한 CPO(공동 패키지 광학)/실리콘 포토닉스 분야에 확실하게 집중하고 있습니다. 몇 가지 사소한 정정을 하자면, 5억~10억 달러($500m - $1B) 규모의 수치는 $SIVE 가 아니라 셀레스티얼(Celestial)에 해당하는 내용인 것 같습니다. 그래도 흥미롭게 잘 읽었습니다.
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认为市场低估了 Nvidia 投资下游后带来的上游供应冲击。
市场漏掉了 Nvidia 投资的含义： 今天它向光学领域的 $COHR 投了 20 亿美元。 向光学领域的 $LITE 投了 20 亿美元。 今天又向光学领域的 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 Nvidia 去年就用过同样的剧本。 他们意识到 800G/1.6T 可插拔器件的推进会耗尽全球 EML 供给。 所以他们接触了 $LITE、$COHR、Sumitomo，并提前预定了大部分产能。 我们已经在他们股价里看到了反映：自从那轮严重供给紧张以来，$LITE 已经涨了 955%。 现在我们看到同样的剧本在过去一个月里再次开始。 只是这次是一个新的架构。 而且这些交易都包含了几十亿美元的采购承诺和未来产能权利。 所以……下一步是什么？CW / EML 和 CPO 瓶颈。 Nvidia 只是更喜欢投资下游玩家，但真正的供应紧张发生在上游。 来自 $MTSI、$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR、Furukawa 和 Sumitomo 的激光供应商都在全速运转。 Win Semi、$TSEM、$GFS 这些晶圆代工也大概率在满负荷运转。 整条供应链都会受益（比如 $AEHR 的测试、$SOI 的衬底）。 但从晶圆代工到 ELS / CW 激光瓶颈的这两个环节，可能会是最大的受益者。 Nvidia 是下一轮发生什么的最大信号；现在只是等拐点到来的时间而已。
原推 ↗英文原文
The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.
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把近期机构轮动理解为 CPO/ELS 上游链条的机会。
尽管指数和巨头都在跌，比如 $META / $MSFT，但市场里依然明显有一些超额收益者。 这大概说明了机构轮动，或者说某个非常强的新兴行业已经在形成。 最明显的就是 CPO / ELS 供应链。 我个人的标的包括： $TSEM / Win Semi - 光子学里的 TSM $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE - 光源 $SOI / $AXTI - 衬底 $IQE - 外延片 当然也有更大的名字，比如 $MRVL、Sumitomo、$AVGO。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s clearly some market outperformers despite index’s and mega caps from $META / $MSFT crashing. This probably signals institutions rotation or an extremely strong up and coming sector. The obvious one is into CPO/ELS supply chains. My personal picks were: $TSEM / Win Semi- TSM of photonics $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR / $LITE- Light Sources $SOI / $AXTI - Substrates $IQE - Epiwafers But of course there are larger names out there like $MRVL, Sumitomo, $AVGO.
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博主分享其对AI供应链瓶颈轮动的精准判断，从存储到光子学再到CPO/ELS，并引用研报分析AI投资超级周期的瓶颈解决序列和CPO商业化拐点
我认为我精准把握了机构层面的瓶颈轮动。 -> 在存储股的上涨尾声捕捉到了 $SNDK、三星、SK海力士、$MU -> 在光子学领域领先机构布局了 $AAOI、$AXTI、$LITE、$COHR -> 现在再次行动，大量加仓SiPh、ELS和CPO：$SIVE、$TSEM、$SOI、$AEHR、Win Semi以及其他 当然如果你想稳健操作： $MRVL（产能自用）、$AVGO（产能自用）、$TSM和$NOK也都有涉及，但他们是更大的玩家。直接曝险下一个超级周期才是理想的。 我仍然认为从存储到EML光收发器的增长空间巨大，但最大的繁荣出现在新架构周期起点/拐点处。 除了宏观因素干扰了一些交易外，预计资本将很快轮动到CPO/ELS供应链。 券商研报的摘要：AI基础设施投资超级周期遵循严格的"瓶颈解决"序列： 算力/GPU（2023）-> 存储/HBM（2024）-> 互联/网络（2025+） 翻译： "我们判断AI价值链的第三轮投资周期已正式启动。继GPU（2023）和HBM（2024）之后，2025年后，光互联将成为增长最快的核心环节。 2027-2028年将是关键拐点，CPO商业化、1.6T标准化和Scale-Up光互联将形成共振，结构性扩大相关行业TAM。" 一些要点： 1. CPO（共封装光学）正从实验室走向商业化量产 2. 2027-2028年是重大结构性拐点（现在在2026年提前布局是个好主意，从测试端$AEHR到ELS端$SIVE或封装端$POET） 3. 光学部件、材料和测试设备的市场总规模（TAM）预计将结构性扩大3到5倍（我认为这还是保守估计）。
原推 ↗英文原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU -> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR. -> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others. Of course if you want to play it safe: $MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal. I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle. Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains. TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence: Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+). Translation: "We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment. 2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries" Some takeaways: 1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production 2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET). 3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
原推 ↗英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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认为 SOI 估值便宜且在衬底层有垄断地位，重估会慢慢发生。
@Ud197601 @AdityaInvests90 $SOI 的市净率大概只有 1.3 倍，所以估值已经很低了。 我觉得它会缓慢重估向上，但它在衬底层确实拥有相当明显的垄断地位。 当然，像 $TSEM 那种一周涨 70% 的走势还是把我吓了一跳。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ud197601 @AdityaInvests90 $SOI trades close to 1.3x book value. So it’s already at depressed valuations. I think it’s a slow re-rating up but it holds a material monopoly on the substrate level. Of course like $TSEM that 70% 1 week rally caught me off guard.
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阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源
我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。 或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？
原推 ↗英文原文
My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?
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认为 SOI 很强，而 SIVE 和 AAOI 是自己看好的高成长标的。
@Blinklebloop 同意，$SOI 在所有标的里大概是最强的位置之一。 对我来说，$SIVE 和 $AAOI 是继 $AXTI 之后的高成长火箭船。 这几个名字争议都很大，但我对它们都很有信念。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blinklebloop Agreed $SOI has arguably one of the strongest positions out of everything. $SIVE and $AAOI were the hypergrowth rocket ships following $AXTI for me. Lot of debate around them but I have conviction in them both
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光子学全面回撤，但认为这类回撤常是筹码交换时刻，前提是别加杠杆。
光子学现在一点都不好玩。 激光公司里： $LITE、$SIVE、$COHR、$MTSI、$AAOI 全都在跌。 衬底、晶圆厂和外延片公司里： $IQE、$AXTI、$SOI、$TSEM 也全都在跌。 几乎全是红的。 从低 beta 的 Coherent 只有 6% 的跌幅，一直到 22% 都有。 这次最该学到的教训是： 拥抱波动，不要用杠杆。 一只票如果一天能涨 25%，今天也可能跌 20%。 由宏观驱动的流动性真空和止损，会造成非常剧烈的波动。 不过，如果像 $LITE 和 $COHR 这样的公司都已经卖断货到 2028 年…… 或者如果你知道 $SIVE 会是下一个 CW 激光受益者，市值大约只有 3.4 亿美元，而 $AXTI 会变成衬底瓶颈。 那么这类宏观砸盘，往往也是让有能力重新布局的人换手的机会。
原推 ↗英文原文
Photonics are not having a fun time. Laser Companies from: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down. Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from: $IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down. Almost everything is red. From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%. Good lesson to learn: Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage. If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today. Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings. However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates. Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.
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认为 SOI 估值重估较慢，但硅光和 CPO 放量会带来上行。
@excu4e16421 $SOI 的重估速度比 $AAOI 慢，但我觉得它已经接近旧业务拖累周期的底部，而且它们提供的衬底会从硅光 / CPO 放量中受益。 一年后也许能有 2.5 倍，这其实已经很好了，不是每只票都能三个月翻三倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@excu4e16421 $SOI is slow rerating compared to $AAOI but I do think it’s the bottom of their legacy drag cycle but they get upside from silicon photonics/cpo ramp up with the substrates they provide. Maybe 2.5x in a years time (which is still good, not everything triples in 3 months)
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回顾 AXTI 10 倍成功后，列出 SIVE、AAOI、VNP、SOI 等下一批高信念供应链标的。
所以我的 10 倍 Moonshot $AXTI 最后真的飞到了月球。 如果你觉得自己错过了火箭： -> $SIVE 是我现在最喜欢的下一个 AXT 式 10 倍 Moonshot。 -> $AAOI 自从我提到之后已经涨了 4 倍，但我还是觉得它从现在这个位置还能再涨 4 倍。 如果你想玩得更稳一点： -> $VNP 是西方版本的 $AXTI -> $SOI 是硅光 / CPO 版本的 $AXTI，但它还没真正起量。 -> $IQE 更偏向重组后的二元结果。 -> $TSEM、$LITE、$COHR 则是更稳的复利型标的。 我之前还没怎么提过 $VNP（5N Plus），但它确实是西方供应链里最重要的公司之一，是 $AXTI 的对照面。 它主要供应：铟、锗、镓、碲、铋。也供应 LEO 卫星太阳能电池，以及光子学的衬底 feedstock。 市场里永远还有更多机会！
原推 ↗英文原文
So my 10x moonshot $AXTI ended up landing on the moon. If you felt like you missed the rocket: -> $SIVE is my personal favorite next 10x AXT moonshot at today's prices. -> $AAOI already up 4x since I've mentioned it, but I still think it can 4x again from these levels. If you want to play a bit safer: -> $VNP is the Western $AXTI -> $SOI is the $AXTI for silicon photonics/CPO, but it hasn't really ramped up yet. -> $IQE is more binary based on restructuring. -> $TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders. I haven’t mentioned $VNP (5N Plus) much yet but it’s genuinely one of the most important companies in Western supply chains as the counterbalance to $AXTI. Basically it supplies: indium, germanium, gallium, tellurium, bismuth. Solar cells for LEO. Substrate feedstock for photonics. There's always more opportunities in the market!
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股价短期波动不改变投资论点，应保持信念不被宏观因素左右。
我不喜欢这类帖子，但今天我还是再发一次： 当像$SOI这样的股票下跌6%，并回吐了本周大部分涨幅时： 关于SOI基板在硅光子学(silicon photonics)/共封装光学(CPO)领域达到垄断级别的投资论点没有任何改变。 不幸的是，大盘指数（巴黎证券交易所指数）本月暴跌9%，而且还在继续下跌。 而伊朗战争带来的更广泛宏观因素又进一步压低了很多股票。 我提到的每一只股票，比如$AXTI，不会直线上涨，但它们往往是强劲的超越大盘的标的。 如果我的投资论点发生实质性变化，我会发帖说明。 但如果股价下跌是因为宏观因素，或者在上涨400%后如$AAOI那样的轻微回调。 或者$SIVE在上周五暴跌16%然后周一又反弹35%…… 短期股价不会改变投资论点。 它也不应该改变你的信念。 特别是对于这些股票，如果我一段时间没有提到它们，比如$IQE，那只是处于重组或资产出售的等待期。或者$NBIS正处于其悄无声息的建设期，为Q4营收的爆发式增长做准备。 这类表现有时是宏观环境的副产品。 但如果它们能在一周内下跌10%，它们也能在一周内上涨10%。
原推 ↗英文原文
Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again: When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week: Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed. Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down. And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names. Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers. I’ll post if my thesis materially changed. But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI. Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday… Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis. And it shouldn’t to your conviction either. Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp. Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro. But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.
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将卫星周期和光子超级周期对比，认为后者更能支撑收入和盈利增长。
这里有一个太空卫星超级周期： -> 由 $PL 触发。 随后 $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR 等跟上。 然后还有光子超级周期： -> 由 $LITE 和 $COHR 触发。 随后 $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI 等跟上。 前者是对太空应用的炒作。 后者是对 AI 带来的极端收入和盈利增长的炒作。 后者通常更容易被证明是合理的。
原推 ↗英文原文
There's the Space Satellite MegaCycle: -> Triggered by $PL. With $BKSY / $SATL / $SPIR and others following. Then there's the Photonics SuperCycle: -> Triggered by $LITE and $COHR. With $AAOI / $TSEM / $MTSI / $SIVE / $IQE / $SOI and others following. One is hype over applications from Space. The other is hype over extreme revenue and earnings growth from AI. The latter tends to be more defensible.
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认为 SOI 只是慢慢重估，但衬底业务仍有 2-3 倍空间。
@miraclemaster07 $SOI 没什么变化，我只是继续拿着，它现在也只涨了适度的 20%。 我觉得它在接下来一年里还能涨 2 到 3 倍。
原推 ↗英文原文
@miraclemaster07 Nothing's changed about $SOI, just sitting on it and it's up a modest 20%. I think it can 2-3x in the next year.
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认为 SOI 可能供应 HIMX->TSM 链条，并在混合树脂上几乎垄断。
@zephyr_z9 这其实不太是资产负债表的问题。 他们更可能是 $HIMX -> $TSM COUPE 链条的供应商，而且在 WLO 所需的混合树脂上几乎形成了半垄断。
原推 ↗英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Not really about the balance sheet per say. They're the likely supplier to $HIMX -> $TSM COUPE, and had a semi-monopoly over hybrid resins needed for WLO
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认为 SOI 的基板逻辑不会因为短期宏观下跌而改变。
@setthundred 整个市场都因为宏观在跌，包括 $SOI。不幸的是，除非你叫 $TSEM，不然没有哪个名字能天天收绿。 SOI 的基板逻辑不会因为短期宏观回落而改变。
原推 ↗英文原文
@setthundred Whole market is down from macro, including $SOI. Unfortunately if your name isn’t $TSEM, names don’t go green every day. SOI substrate thesis doesn’t change based on short term macro drops
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回应外界质疑，强调自己分享的是想法与回报，不需要靠炫富来证明。
谢谢你替我说话。去年我只有几百个关注者、发出 600%+ 收益时，大家都还挺支持的。 现在我有 10 万+ 关注后，反而多了无尽的嫉妒，或者一些莫名其妙的评论，比如： - “除非他们晒净资产，不然就是拿 2000 美元在交易”： 我不需要像其他网红那样发跑车或名表来证明自己是个好交易员。对我来说，最重要的是想法，而收益率已经证明了这些想法在市场里是对的。 - “拉盘砸盘”：几乎每只我持有的股票都保住了涨幅，比如 $AXTI 都涨了 500%+？我大部分收益其实还没兑现。 我从开始发帖以来，自己点名过的高信念标的，几乎都是绿的：$NBIS、$CRCL、$TSM、$RKLB、$HOOD、$ALAB、$CRDO。 也有一些新的，比如 $RDDT，但它现在也只回撤了大概 6-8%，还需要时间兑现。 还有一些更小的标的，比如 $LPTH 或 $VLN，虽然还没兑现，但从发帖以来也就跌了大约 10% 左右，具体取决于进场点，并不是因为它们基本面不好就直接崩掉。 我发的是几十只股票，所以拿其中几只还没跑出来的来代表我全部做过的东西，这真的很荒谬。如果你把所有标的等权平均，你会发现整体还是很绿的。 - “偷票”：很多这些股票都已经存在很多年了，过去也有成千上万的人做多过。 市场之所以对它们反应不同，是因为我在帖子里做了新的信息整合，或者我把它和一个别人没想到的催化剂联系了起来。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $OSS，但它之所以上涨，是因为我把它和委内瑞拉入侵联系起来了（这才是新的）。只是说一句“边缘 AI，看多 $OSS”其实什么都不说明。 以前有人说他们先发现了 $RPI，但它上涨的原因，是因为我第一个把它和 OpenClaw 的投资逻辑联系在一起（这才是新的）。光说“树莓派适合个人使用”也没什么意义。 例子还有很多，比如 $SOI、$SIVE，或者其他任何股票。 我也没说我是第一个发现 $TSEM 或 $NBIS 之类的人，那些本来就是大家都知道的光子代工厂或者 neocloud，我个人只是喜欢，也愿意跟着上车。 别人想怎么说都行，但市场才是真相的最终裁判。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thanks for coming to my defense. Last year when I posted 600%+ gains with a few hundred followers, everyone was supportive. Now that I have 100k+ followers, there's endless jealously or random comments like: - "Only trading with $2K unless they show net worth": I don't need to post lambos/fancy watches like other influencers to prove I'm a good trader. My opinion is ideas what matters the most, and the % return validates that they're correct in the market. - "Pump and Dump": Almost every stock held their gains like $AXTI is up 500%+? Most of my returns are unrealized. Every high conviction stock I've named over time since starting is green: $NBIS, $CRCL, $TSM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $ALAB, $CRDO. There's new ones like $RDDT but that's only down ~6-8% and needs time to play out. There's other smaller picks $LPTH or $VLN that haven't but they're only down like 10% from posting or more depending on entry point and don't just crash because they're all fundamentally good picks. I post tens of stocks, so cherry picking a few that haven't played out yet to represent everything I've done is just ridiculous. If people just take the equal weighted average of everything they're way green. - "Stealing Picks": Many of these stocks have been around for years. Thousands of different people have been long at one point in time. The reason markets react differently is I either bring novel information synthesis to a post, or I time it with a catalyst others don't. People were claiming they found $OSS first, but the reason it went up from $6 was because I linked it to Venezulea's invasion (which was novel). Just saying "edge AI, go long on $OSS doesn't mean anything". People were claiming they found $RPI first, but the reason it went up was because I was the first to link it OpenClaw as an investment thesis (which was novel). People claiming "raspberry pi for personal use doesn't mean anything". List goes on and on with $SOI or $SIVE or any other stock. I'm not claiming I'm the first either to stuff like $TSEM or $NBIS either, that's already a well known photonics foundry or neocloud, I personally just liked it and wanted to hop ont he bandwagon. People can say anything they want but markets are the final arbiter of truth.
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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建议把仓位投向即将到来的硅光 / CPO 方向，并在高信念和分散之间做平衡。
@moderndayvenom 我会把资金投向硅光 / CPO，因为我们知道这会从 OFC 和 $NVDA GTC 继续推进。 像 $TSEM、$SIVE、$SOI 这种名字，是我最喜欢、信念最高的三个。 然后我会稍微分散一点，今天价格下的 $RDDT 也可以作为多头，另外当前收发器周期里的 $AAOI 也不错。
原推 ↗英文原文
@moderndayvenom I’d send it into silicon photonics/CPO since we know it’s coming from OFC and $NVDA GTC. Names like $TSEM, $SIVE, $SOI were my favorite three higher conviction ones. Then I’d diversify a bit, maybe $RDDT as a long as of today’s prices. And $AAOI for current transceiver cycles.
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博主炫耀YTD收益率564%，列举各持仓收益并看好硅光子和CPO概念股
年初至今回报率（1月至3月）： +564.36%。 我正在通过发掘未被发现的AI瓶颈来快速超越去年600%+的回报率。 并精选赢家。 - $AXTI 未实现收益500%+。 - $AAOI 3个月内涨了3倍，或$IQE 1个月内涨了2倍。 - $LITE 接近100%+。 我预计大量资金将轮动到硅光子(silicon photonics)+共封装光学(CPO)概念股： 比如$SOI、$AEHR或$SIVE，今年这些股票已上涨约70-100%，但还有很长的路要走。 此外，还有一些杂项多头仓位，比如$CRCL在1个月内上涨了148%。 $NBIS从$70附近几乎翻倍到$120。 $EWY的IV交易上涨了50-70%，$XLU等股票上涨了50%+。 我今年最大的输家是$RDDT，因为我的成本均价是$148。 一些杂项选股如$INFQ、$VPG、$AVAV、$LPTH表现不如预期。 但正如我提到的，除了Reddit（我的仓位很集中）之外，很多其他我不那么熟悉的股票，我的仓位也比较轻： 但我所有高确信度的选股如$TSEM最近都实现了强劲复利增长。 重要的是，我在高仓位股票上正确的时候比错误的时候多。 我年初至今的大部分回报实际上都是未实现的，因为我不会退出我的多头仓位，除非基本面发生重大变化： 但我确实在年初委内瑞拉冲突后实现了很多收益，因为我识别出了一些赢家，比如Gold Reserve一天内翻倍。 遗憾的是，我确实卖出了Nittobo或Macronix等一些亚洲股票，它们都上涨了100-200%+，我当时为了轮动资金正值伊朗冲突期间...这些股票后来涨得更高了。 我在很多杂项股票上进行波段交易，或者在一边写备兑看跌期权(CSP)。 这就是为什么我能够实现500%+的复利。 虽然个股只上涨了100-200%（只是不断翻倍+轮动）。 但如果你想抓住下一个趋势： 最明显的是光子学超级周期(Photonics Supercycle)，只要你看看$AAOI的财报电话会议或$LITE的英伟达GTC大会，接下来几年都是如此。 而当前的超级周期是存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)，只要你看看$SNDK的回报率就知道了。 正如你们在我最初的$AXTI论点或现在的Soitec案例中看到的那样： 这些股票不断垂直上涨，因为每个人突然意识到它们对AI下一个范式转变的重要性。 我的策略是在市场发现之前识别AI供应链中的结构性瓶颈。
原推 ↗英文原文
Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.
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认为 Soitec 的上涨验证了自己“免费公开研究会被迅速定价”的观点，散户在 X 上甚至领先机构。
Soitec <$SOI / $SLOIF> 自从我一周前发帖后，已经涨了很多。 因为它们是西方在硅光和 CPO 基板上的事实垄断者。 我免费发想法，它们会立刻被计价进去。 这和以前的模式不同： -> 银行分析师卖 1 万到 4 万美元以上的研究 -> 对冲基金低价先吸筹下一个瓶颈 -> 散户等到涨到顶部后才知道。 而第一次，X 上的散户在架构范式转移这件事上，比机构更早。
原推 ↗英文原文
Soitec < $SOI / $SLOIF > is now up, a lot since my post a week ago. As they’re the Western monopoly over silicon photonics and CPO substrates. I post my ideas for free, and they get priced in immediately. Instead of former models where: -> Bank analysts sell research for $10,000-$40,000+ -> Hedge funds can accumulate the next chokepoints at low prices -> Retail investors find out at the top after they’re already priced in. And for the first time: Retail on X are earlier than institutions to the architectural paradigm shifts in AI.
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认为真正值得投资的是能给超大规模云光学超级周期供货、并受 AI TAM 扩张驱动的欧洲公司。
随机一家低市盈率的欧洲公司，和一家给超大规模云供应链光子超级周期供应激光的公司，是不一样的。 如果一家欧洲市场公司没有像 Soitec 或 $SIVE 这样来自 AI 的极端 TAM 扩张，我个人不会投。
原推 ↗英文原文
There’s a difference between a random European company trading at low p/e. Then one that suppliers lasers for the Optical Supercycle to hyperscaler supply chains. I personally would not invest in European markets unless it had extreme TAM expansion from AI like Soitec or $SIVE.
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分析光通信供应链中不同规模公司的上涨潜力，从大型成熟公司到细分领域纯业务公司
三件事： 1/ 通常，市值越小，上涨空间越大（但风险也更高） 2/ 寻找那些未被定价进当前可插拔光模块周期的公司（EML光收发器公司如$LITE和$COHR） 3/ 纯业务布局即将到来的CPO/硅光子学范式转换。 说到追求“最高上涨空间”： 如果你看$MRVL的Celestial产品线对比$TSM的COUPE，两者都是大体量公司，而这只是它们营收的一小部分。所以这很可能被排除，除非交易员使用期权。 像$SOI的SOI衬底这类产品会对营收产生更实质性的影响（更高的上涨空间）。 然后还有像上游激光供应商$SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> 超大规模云厂商供应链这样的环节，我已识别为高潜力受益者。 但像$AAOI这样的公司在800G/1.6T可插拔光模块周期中仍有巨大的上涨空间。 我相信市场上有许多被错误定价或未知的投资机会…… CPO规模化应用的TAM（总可寻址市场）像是垂直上升的，但像$SIVE这样的产品用于规模化应用的光源和激光阵列。
原推 ↗英文原文
Three things: 1/ Generally, the lower the marketcap, the higher the upside (but more risk) 2/ Finding companies that weren’t priced into current pluggable cycles (EMl-transceiver companies like $LITE and $COHR) 3/ Pure play to the upcoming cpo/silicon photonics paradigm shift. In terms of chasing “highest upside”: If you look at $MRVL Celestial to $TSM COUPE they’re both already massive companies. And it’s just a fraction of their revenue. So that’s likely excluded unless traders use options. Stuff like SOI substrates for $SOI will make a more material difference toward revenue (higher upside). Then others like upstream laser supplier $SIVE to ->$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> hyperscaler supply chains, I’ve identified as a high potential beneficiary. But there’s still a massive upside for companies like $AAOI in the 800g/1.6T pluggable cycle. I’m sure there’s a lot of mispriced or unknown opportunites out there… as The TAM for cpo scale up is like a vertical like up, but things like $SIVE are used for light sources in scale up and laser arrays for scale up.
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认为光子超级周期已经到来，NVIDIA 正把 CPO / 硅光推到临界点，光正成为 AI 基建核心。
光子超级周期已经来了。 $NVDA 正在带头把下一次飞跃推向 CPO 和硅光。 而我们现在离拐点还很近，供应链里的瓶颈，比如 Soitec（$SOI）或者 Sivers（$SIVE），都已经开始显现。 “NVIDIA 对 Spectrum-X 交换机和 co-packaged optics 的更新，是一个重要时刻，说明硅光已经成为下一代 AI 基础设施的核心。” 尽管系统扩展长期依赖铜互连，但公司现在已经把光子放到了未来平台的核心，包括 Vera Rubin Ultra。 这种转变预计将支撑越来越复杂的配置，比如 NVL576，以及未来像 Kyber NVL1152 这样的架构。” “Nvidia 已经在量产 Spectrum-X Photonics，也就是 co-packaged optics（CPO）以太网交换机。 公司还宣布了 Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand 交换机，它通过自有的 scale-out 互连，每秒可提供高达 800 Tb 的带宽。” 虽然铜依然重要，但它已经无法单独承受 AI 规模需求。 NVLink8 CPO 大概是最大的信号，因为 $NVDA 也把硅光带进了它的 scale-up NVLink 互连，而不仅仅是 scale-out 网络。 scale-out 的 CPO 现在 / 2026 年已经在出货，NVLink scale-up 的 CPO 也很快会到来。 范式已经改变，AI 基础设施的瓶颈现在正正式由“光”来解决。 市场只差时间去发现这些供应链中的瓶颈，然后再把它们计价进去。
原推 ↗英文原文
The Photonics Supercycle is here. $NVDA is spearheading the next leap into CPO & Silicon Photonics. And we’re only near the inflection point with chokepoints in the supply chains like Soitec ( $SOI ) or Sivers ( $SIVE ). “NVIDIA’s update on the Spectrum-X switch with co-packaged optics is an important moment, confirming that silicon photonics is central to next-generation AI infrastructure.” Despite a long-standing reliance on copper-based interconnects for scale-up systems, the company is now placing photonics at the core of its future platforms, including Vera Rubin Ultra. This transition is expected to support increasingly complex configurations, such as NVL576 and future architectures like Kyber NVL1152.” “Nvidia is already in production with Spectrum-X Photonics, which is co-packaged optics (CPO) Ethernet switch. The company also announced the Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand switch, which delivers up to 800 Tb per second of scale-out throughput using its proprietary scale-out interconnect” Although copper is important, it can no longer alone can no longer handle AI-scale demands. NVLink8 CPO is probably the biggest signal with $NVDA also bringing silicon photonics into its scale-up NVLink interconnect, not just scale-out networking. CPO for scale-out is shipping now/2026, CPO for NVLink scale-up arrives soon. The paradigm has shifted, and the bottleneck of AI infrastructure is now officially being solved by light. It’s only a matter of time before markets find these chokepoints in the supply chains. Then price them in.
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偏好半垄断和上游瓶颈，认为 SIVE 的上行空间最大，其次可能是 AAOI。
我一般都更喜欢半垄断型公司……所以基板层面的 $AXTI 和 $SOI 大概是我最喜欢的？ $TSEM 和 $COHR 是我两个一直很稳的复利标的。 至于上行空间最大，我确实觉得 $SIVE 可能会拿下下一只 $LITE 的位置。也许 $AAOI 排第二吧……
原推 ↗英文原文
I tend to like semi-monopolies... So $AXTI and $SOI on substrate level are probably kinda my favorites? $TSEM and $COHR were my two steady compounders. As for highest upside, I do think $SIVE takes the crown as the next potential $LITE. Maybe $AAOI second place. And $AXTI third?
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给出自己在这批光子名字里的偏好组合，并列出当前周期最喜欢的标的。
@GOATTRADER5184 所以我自己从这堆里挑出来的标的有： $SIVE、$TSEM、$AEHR、$SOI。 我喜欢尽量挑赢家。至于当前周期，我更喜欢的是： $AXTI、$LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$IQE
原推 ↗英文原文
@GOATTRADER5184 So my personal picks out of the bunch were: $SIVE, $TSEM, $AEHR, $SOI. I like try and pick winners. As for current cycle it's: $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $IQE
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
原推 ↗英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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分析光通信从EML到SiPh架构变化中的投资机会与瓶颈环节
Alpha就是捕捉从当前EML到明年SiPh(硅光子)/CW DFB架构变化带来的机会。 所以像Soitec($SOI)、$TSEM、$SIVE、$POET这类还没被重新定价的新标的。 目前瓶颈环节是像$AAOI这样最近业绩预期爆表、还有很大上涨空间的股票。但我还是认为$COHR和$LITE也有被重新定价的空间。 然后还有用于各种光电器件的InP(磷化铟)衬底/原料，比如$AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
The alpha is capturing the rotation from the current EML to SiPh / CW DFB architectural change next year. So new stuff like Soitec ( $SOI ), $TSEM, $SIVE, and $POET type names that haven't been re-rated yet. Current bottleneck would be stuff like $AAOI that recently had blowout projections and have a long way to go. But I still think there's room for $COHR and $LITE to be re-rated as well. Then there's InP substrate/feedstock for photonics like $AXTI which is used across everything.
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列出自己最看好的两个 CPO / 硅光标的，认为市场正重新给这些名字定价。
我对 CPO 和硅光最看好的两个名字： 1. $SOI 今天涨了 7.05% 2. $TSEM 今天涨了 11.03% 而且这还只是一天。 像 tower 这类公司是光子领域 150 亿美元以上的大型代工厂。 Soitec 这类名字则是多十亿美元级别的基板公司。 市场已经开始重新给这些东西定价了。
原推 ↗英文原文
My top two picks for CPO & Silicon Photonics: 1. $SOI is up 7.05% 2. $TSEM is up 11.03% In just one day. Names like tower are large $15 Billion+ foundries for photonics. While names like Soitec are multi-billion dollar substrate companies. Markets really seem to like my higher conviction individual photonic names.
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Soitec 的基板选择在 5 天内上涨 44.3%，说明市场正在重新定价光子关键玩家。
已经过了 5 天。 我选的 Soitec <$SOI> 基板，面向硅光和 CPO，现在已经上涨超过 44.3%。 这是市场正在实时重估光子下一位关键玩家。 Soitec 今天又涨了 7.03%。 https://t.co/kHSRZpCmiF
原推 ↗英文原文
It’s been 5 days. My Soitec < $SOI > substrate pick for silicon photonics and CPO is now up over +44.3%. This is markets re-rating the next critical player for photonics, live. Soitec is now up another 7.03% today. https://t.co/kHSRZpCmiF
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分享本周新关注的3只股票，定位为硅光子学产业链细分标的
@MattReno264555 我个人新关注的是 Soitec ($SOI) 作为硅光子学衬底，以及 $SIVE 作为下一个 $LITE，用于CPO/硅光子学。还有 $TSEM 作为光子学领域的 $TSM。这是这周的分享。
原推 ↗英文原文
@MattReno264555 My personal new ones were Soitec ( $SOI ) for silicon photonics substrates and $SIVE as the next $LITE for CPO/Silicon photonics. As well as $TSEM as the $TSM for photonics This past week.
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年初回顾自己在光子瓶颈、AXTI、EWY、RPI、IQE、Soitec 和 Venezuela 相关判断上的一系列兑现。
只是回顾一下我今年的成绩。 2026 年前三个月，粉丝增长到 10 万+： - 预判了光子学即将出现的 InP 基板 / 原料瓶颈 - 识别出 $AXTI 是主要受益者（涨了 4 倍+） - 中国突然对日本实施即时出口管制，针对 InP 化合物 -> 在我那篇识别中国瓶颈以及住友 / 超大规模云脆弱性的 thesis 后没多久，这篇还拿了几百万浏览…… 我也不确定他们是不是看过我的帖子，如果看过，抱歉？ - 预测了韩国市场波动上升，并把它映射成和 $EWY 有关的 IV 套利交易想法 - 一周后就被韩国央行关于即将到来的波动的表态验证了 - Bloomberg、Reuters、FT 以及其他媒体都引用了我关于 $RPI 的 thesis 帖 - 很多欧洲媒体也在谈为什么我看好 $IQE - 还有一堆法国新闻网站，以及 Citi、Kepler 的分析师，围绕我那篇关于 Soitec（$SOI）的 TLDR thesis 帖发出了略带强势的研究意见 - 识别出委内瑞拉政局变化的主要受益者，比如 Gold Reserve，而且这只股票第二天就涨了 100%+ - 还发了关于委内瑞拉可能持有多少比特币的信息整合，结果被 CNN 等媒体大量报道！ 我其他很多 thesis 帖，比如 $LITE，也在今年随着我对 $GOOGL TPU BOM 的映射，以及两次加倍后兑现了。 但这些都没上面那些酷！ 短短两个月里！我喜欢保持谦虚，但偶尔也想吹一吹。 最棒的是，这次零售投资者因为 X 上的信息发现和免费传播，几乎都提前参与了很多趋势。 很期待未来会发生什么，也很高兴 X 给了我机会分享想法。
原推 ↗英文原文
Just a reflection on my accomplishments this year. Growing to 100K+ followers in the first three months of 2026: - Forecasted the upcoming InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck for photonics - Identified $AXTI as the main beneficiary (up 4x+) - China's suddenly enforced immediate export controls on Japan, targeting InP compounds -> shortly after my thesis identifying the China bottleneck and Sumitomo/hyperscaler vulnerabilities got a few million views... Not sure if they read my post, sorry if they did? - Predicted volatility increase of the South Korean Market and also mapped that into an IV arbitrage trade idea with $EWY - Got it spot on a week later with the Bank of Korea citing upcoming volatility - Had Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and other news outlets citing my thesis post about $RPI - Bunch of European news sites talking about why I like $IQE - Had a bunch of French news sites and analysts from Citi, Kepler, putting out slightly aggressive notes about my Soitec ( $SOI ) TLDR thesis post. - Identified the main beneficiaries of Venezuela regime change like Gold Reserve, with the stock going up 100%+ the day after. - Published information synthesis on how much Bitcoin Venezuela might have had, and it blew up with a ton of media coverage like CNN and others! Lot of my other thesis posts like $LITE ended up playing out this year after mapping out $GOOGL TPU BOM and doubling. But it's not as cool as the ones above! In just two months! I like to stay humble, but I do want to brag from time to time. And best of all, retail investors were all early to a lot of these trends this time because of information discovery + free distribution over X. Excited to see what's to come in the future and I'm happy X gave me this opportunity to share my thoughts.
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介绍自己的订阅区只是“洗澡时的灵感区”，不会把主线内容付费锁住。
哇，谢谢大家这个月的 4300 位订阅者！ 我最近刚把它设好，但还没正式发过帖。 这是我的第一篇！ 不过，这段时间我一直收到大量私信，所以顺手做个 PSA： 我做的任何 DD（比如 $SOI 到 $AAOI）最终都会出现在我的主时间线。 我不会把任何 thesis 帖永久锁在付费墙后面，但我可能会在订阅区稍微提前发一点。 尤其是因为 HFT 算法也会爬我的主帖，而我更愿意给零售投资者一个先手。 不过本质上，我把订阅区当成一个“洗澡时的灵感”空间。 所以那些零散的供应链、笔记、交易想法，比如： - 套利 / 期权 - DCA 加仓位 - 还没变成完整 thesis 前的早期想法 - 或者随机的 AMA 问答 我不想让主时间线塞满这些不正式的思考过程或评论。 所以我觉得，顺着这个过程分享我学到的东西，同时先给真正关注的人一个提示，会更有意思！ 如果你想看我白天到底在想什么，那这个频道就是干这个的！
原推 ↗英文原文
Wow, thank you all for 4300 subscribers this month! I recently set it up, and never made a formal post about it. This is my first one! But, I've been getting floods of DMs about it. So just to clarify things with a quick PSA: Any DD I do ( $SOI to $AAOI) will always end up on my main timeline. I won't gatekeep any thesis posts I make, but I might post a tiny bit earlier in the sub spaces. Especially since HFT algorithms scrape my main posts too and I like to give retail audiences a heads up before the algos. But I basically use the subscription channel as a "Shower Thoughts" space. So any random supply chains, notes, trade ideas like - arbitrages/options - DCA levels - early ideas before they become full thesis or actionable ideas - or random ama questions I just didn't want to flood the main timeline with informal thought process or comments. So thought it would be more fun along the way to share what I learn and give real folks a heads up first. If you're interested in what I'm thinking about throughout the day, that's what the channel is for!
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列出 AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今回报，认为自己无意中做出了一个很强的 ETF。
我看了一下书签数量，才意识到： 我低调地搞出了一个很能打的 ETF？ AI Displacement 等权组合年初至今： $AXTI：+191.53% $AAOI：+144.47% $SNDK：+140.38% $SOI：+114.3% $LITE：+61.22% $AEHR：+60.97% $BE：+56.56% $VRT：+47.42% Samsung：+42.8% $TER：+37.99% $MU：+35.1% SK 海力士：+34.42% $NBIS：+25.57% $COHR：+24.92% Mediatek：+17.01% $INTC：+16.23% $ASML：+15.63% Advantest：+11.78% $TSM：+5.85% $COPX：+4.56% $TSEM：+2.44% $MRVL：-1.71% $NVDA：-4.55% $AVGO：-7.32% 这只是我脑子里第一时间想到的名字。 我个人持有其中很多，也没持有另外一些，比如 $NVDA 或 $BE，但我还是把它们放进来了。 不过老实说，如果我现在不是在主动管理仓位集中度，我会很愿意把这些名字等权配置。 我预计 AI Displacement ETF 还会继续上涨： 因为这些公司都是人工智能扩展算力和推理最主要的受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
I realized by the amount of bookmarks. I lowkey dropped a banger ETF? AI Displacement Equal Weighted YTD: $AXTI: +191.53% $AAOI: +144.47% $SNDK: +140.38% $SOI: +114.3% $LITE: +61.22% $AEHR: +60.97% $BE: +56.56% $VRT: +47.42% Samsung: +42.8% $TER: +37.99% $MU: +35.1% Sk Hynix: +34.42% $NBIS: +25.57% $COHR: +24.92% Mediatek: +17.01% $INTC: +16.23% $ASML: +15.63% Advantest: +11.78% $TSM: +5.85% $COPX: +4.56% $TSEM: +2.44% $MRVL: -1.71% $NVDA: -4.55% $AVGO: -7.32% These are just the first names that came to my head. I own a lot of these personally (and don't own others like $NVDA or $BE ) but included them anyway. But honestly, I'd be happy to equal weight all these names if I weren't actively managing my portfolio concentrations. I expect the AI Displacement ETF to keep rising: As they're the largest beneficiaries of scaling compute and inference for artificial intelligence.
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认为 AI 已引发不可逆的岗位替代，投资相关基础设施和瓶颈是对冲失业冲击的主要方式。
这个消息真的很令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期将有 60 万名工人被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一种反乌托邦未来。 企业在没有人工劳动成本的情况下，仍然能赚创纪录的利润。 唯一能从中受益的办法： 把 AI 当成对冲工具去投资。 未来几年，想逃离 AI 造成的永久底层阶级，感觉最主要的办法就是这样。 AI 产生的股东权益回报，将流向股东。 而那些没投资股票、只能靠工资过活的人之间的差距会继续拉大。 这不是未来，而是已经在发生。 - Opus 4.6 已经足够替代今天大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 已经开始在旧金山这样的地方替代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 的人形机器人也快来了，因为它们在中国已经普及。 这件事现在就在发生。 伊朗的扰动只是 AI 建设加速过程中的短期事件。 AI 已经到达拐点，而且似乎不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业修正接近减少 100 万，这非常惊人。 而且我们正在看到，新一代 LLM 正在由它们前一代模型自己构建，AI 正在逼近奇点（AI 递归增长）。 如果你要投资那些运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件： 数据中心 / 电力 / 电网板块： $NBIS、$XLU、$VRT、$BE 光子板块，负责扩展 AI： $LITE、$COHR、$AAOI、$TSEM 半导体板块，负责芯片： $NVDA、$TSM、$ASML、$INTC 存储板块，负责芯片： $MU、$SNDK、SK 海力士、三星 ASIC，负责超大规模云 AI 推理： $AVGO、$MRVL、Mediatek 良率 / 测试板块，确保芯片能工作： $TER、$AEHR、Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI、$COPX、$SOI 还有很多其他公司，都在成为对抗大规模 AI 失业的单一、最大对冲工具。 谁掌握了算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就掌握了 AI 的未来。
原推 ↗英文原文
The news is pretty heartbreaking: $META 20% layoffs $ORCL layoffs $AMZN 600,000 workers long term layoffs as they get replaced by robotics and AI. This is a dystopian future. Companies end up with record profits, without the cost of human labor. The only way to benefit: Investing in AI as a hedge. The next few years feels like the main way to escape the permanent underclass, caused by AI displacement. The return on equity derived from AI will go to the shareholders. While the gap between those who live paycheck to paycheck, not invested in stocks. Will continue to grow. This is not the future. - Opus 4.6 is good enough to replace most software engineers today. - Waymo has started to replace taxi drivers in places like SF today. - We know $TSLA Humanoids are coming next as they’re widespread in China, today. This is happening now. Disruptions in Iran are only temporary to the accelerating AI buildout. AI has hit the inflection point, and looks inevitable. You’re already seeing US job revisions down close to 1 Million, which is staggering. And we’re seeing the newest LLMs be built by their previous models, as AI approaches the singularity (AI led recursive growth). Investing in where the compute and hardware needed to run the AI: From the datacenter/power/grid sector: $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE Photonics sector needed to scale AI: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM Semi sector needed for the chips: $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC Memory sector for the chips: $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung ASICs for hyperscaler AI inference: $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek Yields sector to make sure the chips work: $TER, $AEHR, Advantest Along with the raw materials or substrates needed for AI: $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI And many others become the single, largest, hedge against widespread AI displacement. Whoever owns the means of compute (bottlenecks, materials, datacenters): Owns the future of AI.
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解释机构如何先做付费研究再慢慢吸筹，自己公开发帖就是在打破这种模式。
谢谢，也正是这样。 通常机构会先发现 Soitec（$SOI）和硅光之间的关系，然后等它估值被压低，再花 2000 美元+ 出一份研究报告，发给其他对冲基金，接着这些客户在市场还没反应过来前慢慢买入。 而我把这些内容公开发出来后，所有 alpha 会立刻消失并被计价进去。 所以有些人会不爽，其实也说得通。传统分析师很讨厌 X 上这种免费的社交媒体研究。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thank you and exactly. Normally, institutions figures out the Soitec ( $SOI ) substrate - silicon photonics connection and waits for depressed valuations, charges $2000+, sends the report to other hedge funds, and those clients slowly buy the stock over a few weeks before the rest of the market catches on. When I post it to to everyone, any alpha evaporates and immediately gets priced in. So makes sense why some might be upset. Traditional analysts hate free social media research on X.
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认为 SOI 的重估是因为自己把研究免费公开给散户，并借此解释为什么机构不喜欢。
我不觉得 Citi 或 Kepler 的任何“分析师”应该对 $SOI 为什么会这样感到惊讶： 一个 1 倍账面价值、在 CPO / 硅光基板里几乎垄断的公司（现在大概 1.4 倍）。 会被重估 40%+。 尤其是在一篇易懂的分析被传播出去之后，人们就能自己建立信念。 时代变了： 机构想让那些“只会发热门、没脑子的网红”去推荐 Paypal 和其他已经过热的股票。 或者鼓动 WSB 的人去买 $TSLA 的 0DTE 看涨期权。 而我是在做一个被低估的、十亿美元级欧洲瓶颈 / 断点公司的供应链研究。然后还把研究免费给了大家。 不是把它锁在 2000 美元+ 的机构研究报告后面。 免费。 我是在教育散户，告诉他们我自己是怎么理解供应链瓶颈、光子和基本面的。 然后再把这些整理成足够简单的 thesis，让大家也能形成自己的观点。 而且第一次，散户在 X 上能够比机构更早地看到那些基础面瓶颈。 看看 $AXTI：我在约 5 亿美元市值时就发给所有散户看了。 现在机构正在涌入，把它推到 26 亿美元以上，因为它是光子行业关键的 InP 基板供应商。 这就是一句“说破的潜台词”： 当一个免费、受欢迎的 X 账号，成功教育了散户去理解像 Soitec 这样在基础面上被严重低估的技术公司时， 它就彻底破坏了机构靠付费墙研究去抢在散户前面的能力。 没有理由去淡化这种趋势。 我相信股票是正和游戏，所以没必要守着信息不分享。
原推 ↗英文原文
Don't think any "Analyst" from Citi or Kepler should be surprised why $SOI: A 1X book CPO/Silicon Photonics Substrate virtual monopoly (now ~1.4). Gets re-rated 40%+. Especially after a digestable analysis gets distributed for people to build their own conviction on. Times have changed: Institutions want dumb, popular "influencers" to publish longs on Paypal and other overbought stocks. Or encourage folks on WSB to buy 0DTE call options on $TSLA. I'm doing supply-chain research on an undervalued billion dollar European bottlenecks/chokepoints. Then gave that research away for free. Not paywalled for $2000+ behind institutional research notes. Free. I'm educating retail on my own thought process regarding supply chain bottlenecks, photonics, and fundamentals. Then putting that into a simple enough thesis, so they can form their own opinions. And for the first time, retail is able to front-run institutions on fundamental bottlenecks. Just look at $AXTI: I posted at ~$500m valuation for every retail investor. And now, institutions are piling in, sending it to $2.6 billion+ as the fundamental InP substrate provider to the photonics industry. This is the quiet part said out loud: When a free and popular X account successfully educates retail on highly strategic, fundamentally undervalued tech companies like Soitec: It completely disrupts the institutions' ability to paywall research and frontrun retail investors. There’s no reason to downplay the trend. I believe stocks are a positive sum game, so there's no reason to gatekeep information.
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认为 SOI 以约 1.3 倍账面价值交易，但作为硅光 / CPO 准垄断者仍有很长上行。
@gussyat $SOI 现在大概是按 1.3 倍账面价值交易，基本像个虚拟的硅光 / CPO 准垄断公司。 我个人觉得它还有很长的上涨空间。
原推 ↗英文原文
@gussyat $SOI is trading at like 1.3x book value as a virtual silicon photonics/cpo monopoly. I personally think it has a long way to run.
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回看自己在 X 上的大部分一周收益都为正，并列出多个强势持仓。
我刚刚跳出自己的小圈子看了一眼。 X 上大部分人的状态都是： - 组合一片深红。 - 对着 1 周图发 doompost。 - 在担心原油。 而我大多数个股的一周回报，好像都还是绿的？ $AXTI +46.9% $SOI +48.59% $NBIS +29.59% $IQE +27.92% $TSEM +13.99% 诸如此类……也许只是运气？
原推 ↗英文原文
Just looked outside my little bubble. Majority of folks on X are: - posting deep red portfolios. - doomposting 1W charts - fearing about oil Feels like most of my individuals stock 1W returns are way in the green? $AXTI up +46.9% $SOI up +48.59% $NBIS up +29.59% $IQE up +27.92% $TSEM up +13.99% And so on… maybe luck?
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感谢对方分享关于自己和 Soitec 的法语评论。
@Ricky_Macchiato 谢谢分享，读到关于我和 Soitec 的法语评论挺有意思的哈哈
原推 ↗英文原文
@Ricky_Macchiato Thanks for sharing, fun to read French commentary about me and Soitec lol
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研究了从 Oxford 到 AIXA 的光子设备公司，但认为多数不会像 AAOI、AXTI、SOI 那样暴涨。
我确实研究过从 Oxford 到 $AIXA 这些和光子设备相关的卖家。 它们会因为光子需求而明显受益，跟 $ASML 那种资本开支周期很像。 但我不觉得它们里有太多公司会像 $AAOI、$AXTI，甚至 $SOI 那样涨 300%+。 不像那些更大的对冲基金 / 机构，我是在用自己的投资组合去追增长，所以只要机会还在，我对很多高 beta 的名字并不排斥。
原推 ↗英文原文
I did look through all the photonics equipment related from sellers from Oxford to $AIXA. They get a material bump from photonics demand, similar to $ASML capex cycles. But I don't think many of them will end up 300%+ like $AAOI, $AXTI, or even $SOI. Unlike larger hedge funds/firms, I'm chasing growth in my personal portfolio, which is why I'm fine with a lot of higher beta names as long as opportunity is there.
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博主分享光子学供应链投资组合，按风险等级分层推荐多只股票。
我是最早一批覆盖光子学供应链股票的人。 大多数自发布以来涨幅达到100-400%以上。 以下是我的核心论点帖的概要总结： 截至今日“最安全”的多头标的： - $TSEM（高塔半导体） - $SOI（Soitec） - $COHR——随时间推移具有防御性的复利型公司。 Soitec——在硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)架构攀升中拥有基板垄断地位，估值极低（即使近期上涨40%+，可能仍只有1.4倍市净率）。 高塔半导体——2028年市盈率处于十几倍区间，70%以上的产能已被预订，是$NVDA架构合作伙伴，基本上是光子学领域的纯Play版$TSM。 Coherent——在光子学领域基本上覆盖从材料/基板到激光器再到光收发器的全产业链，同时也是许多其他垂直领域的基础供应商。 最高贝塔/极高增长多头标的： $AXTI——与Sumitomo形成磷化铟(InP)双头垄断（后者正面临出口管制），与Vital在上游原料端形成双头垄断。 基本上，AXT处于整个光子学食物链的顶端。出口管制风险确实存在，但我的论点是：如果AXT倒下，那么AI驱动的光子学建设也会崩塌。所以还不如做多AXT。 $AAOI——到2027年收入增长10倍。激光器->设计->组装，美国制造。主要不确定性在于执行能力、扩大从$COHR收购的激光器产能等。 超大规模数据中心运营商的需求都存在。他们能交付吗？我愿意承担这个风险。 $IQE——基本上完全依赖重组和清理债务（市值约2亿美元）。作为$LITE的外延晶圆(epiwafer)知名供应商，其主要竞争对手Landmark估值超过35亿美元。 其现有产能（反应器）潜力存在，但基本上需要成功转型光子学并切断传统业务的拖累，才能实现10倍的重新定价。 风险最高，但也可能有相应的回报。 做多$GOOGL TPU生态系统相关： $LITE——由于光学电路交换机(OCS)垄断地位，其光学相关的物料清单(BOM)占比非常高。 如果你认为谷歌TPU是一个可能最终像$NVDA那样的万亿美元项目，那就做多$LITE。 谷歌计划2026年资本支出1750-1800亿美元，其AI基础设施CTO表示计划逐年增加，可能在未来8年投入1万亿美元。 如果这个计划成立，$LITE相对于未来潜力来说估值极低。当然，他们也向其他超大规模数据中心运营商供应激光器，但我会说它与谷歌增长的关联度更高。 _ 还有许多其他我覆盖过的标的： $POET——我本人不做多，但其4亿美元资产负债表提供了良好的缓冲。我发现从$MRVL攀升中发现的Celestial项目太遥远——例如2028年预计收入5亿美元、2029年10亿美元——对于2026年来说不具实质意义。 这很大程度上取决于他们的中介器(interposers)是否能获得其他超大规模数据中心运营商的认证，而不是通过Marvell走后门——这是主要的看涨逻辑。 $HIMX——我确实发现这个论点略有说服力，作为可能的$TSM共封装光学(CPO)供应商。 但我个人更偏好$SOI，会将更多集中度投入其中（因为Soitec作为已知供应商已基本覆盖整个硅光子学领域，而且刚从下行周期中走出）。 还有很多其他的如$NOK、$SHMN也很有趣，但我个人已将集中度投入到我认为最有说服力的标的。 像$LITE这样的“拥挤标的”并不意味着没有剩余上涨空间。只是在有新消息之前，估值已经更多地被反映进去了。 存在许多“关键供应商”，但供应链中的重要性...与将其转化为极高营收增长（例如$AAOI -> 45亿美元营收）之间存在差异。 但对于光子学敞口的简要总结，我的投资组合大致如下： 高集中度（更安全）： $TSEM晶圆代工、$SOI基板、$COHR全产业链 做多+卖看跌期权组合（高波动性）： $AXTI基板/原料、$IQE外延晶圆、$AAOI光收发器供应链 然后做多谷歌相关$LITE
原推 ↗英文原文
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
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开玩笑说自己本该去买 Soitec 期权
@Investmnt_Eagle @realstockfox 我本来应该买期权的，没想到 Soitec 还有这玩意儿。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle @realstockfox I should have done options, didn’t realize there was something for that on Soitec
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称赞 Soitec 是下一只衬底概念股
@realstockfox 我之前喊过 Soitec 会成为下一个衬底主题股，现在 $SOI 已经涨了 44%+。
原推 ↗英文原文
@realstockfox I did shoutout Soitech as the next upcoming substrate play and $SOI is now up 44%+ https://t.co/qsuIf3cjNd
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认为 LWLG 太投机，更偏好 Soitec
@demarscrypto 对我来说，$LWLG 太投机了，哪怕还有 $TSEM 的整合因素。 和 Soitec 这类名字相比，我发现后者的风险回报更好一些，而它们的市值区间也差不多（约 7 亿到 20 亿美元）。
原推 ↗英文原文
@demarscrypto $LWLG too speculative for me given MC, even with $TSEM integration. Found better risk reward to be with names like Soitec, which share similar MCs range ($700m-$2B range).
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用法语解释为什么偏好 Soitec 及光子/内存主题
我其实更喜欢 $SOI，主要因为它在光子领域里的关键作用。 基于硅光子的 AI 新架构，最终都会用到 Soitec 的衬底材料，这也是它最近被如此关注的原因。 我更偏主题化地投资那些已经被许多超大规模云厂商（比如 $GOOGL、$NVDA 和其他公司）大举下注的领域，而我看好的正是光子和内存这两个方向。 我也粗略看过 Viridien，但我觉得地学数据、地球物理和探测并不是我的强项，所以我不觉得自己有资格给出很好的方向性判断。 不过还是感谢你花时间把法语翻成英语来提问。
原推 ↗英文原文
C'est vraiment $SOI que je préfère, principalement en raison de son rôle majeur dans la photonique. Les nouvelles architectures d'intelligence artificielle basées sur la photonique sur silicium finissent toutes par utiliser les matériaux de substrat de Soitec, d'où le vif intérêt qu'elle suscite récemment. J'investis de manière plutôt thématique dans des secteurs où de nombreux « hyperscalers » comme $GOOGL, $NVDA et d'autres ont injecté massivement de l'argent, et ces deux secteurs sont la photonique et la mémoire. J'ai jeté un petit coup d'œil à Viridien, mais je ne pense pas que les données terrestres, les géosciences et la détection soient mes domaines d'expertise. Je ne me sens donc pas qualifié pour donner un bon avis directionnel. Mais j'apprécie que vous ayez pris le temps de traduire du français vers l'anglais pour poser une question.
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总结低市值往往对应更高重估空间
一般经验法则： 市值越低，比如 $IQE -> $SOI -> $AXTI -> $AAOI -> $LITE -> $COHR 这样往上排， 重估后的上行空间往往越大。 当然，前提不是像 $AAOI 那样如果产能目标真兑现了还能把收入做 10 倍，不过这还得看它能不能做到。
原推 ↗英文原文
@KaneCapz General rule of thumb: Lower the MC eg. $IQE -> $SOI -> $AXTI -> $AAOI -> $LITE -> $COHR, etc. Higher upside from re-rating. That's unless you 10x revenue like $AAOI if they hit capacity projections, but we'll see if they do.
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短期会有更好的买点，但长期都看涨
@Jacktecau990 短期里总会有更好的买点，比如 $SOI、$AAOI 或 $AXTI。 但从长期看，我预计它们都会上涨，因为光子会成为 AI 的新架构范式。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Jacktecau990 There's always going to be better buying short term opportunities like with $SOI, $AAOI, or $AXTI. But long term I expect them all to go up as photonics becomes the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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认为 Soitec 仍有很大上行空间
Soitec（$SOI / $SLOIF）现在已经涨了 45.58%。 考虑到它在硅光和 CPO 架构中的衬底级垄断，这只票离天花板还远得很。
原推 ↗英文原文
Soitec ( $SOI / $SLOIF ) is now up 45.58%. This has a long way to go given their substrate-level monopoly over the silicon photonics and CPO architectures. https://t.co/P1hDh8UL9q
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认为 upstream 供应商未必都已被定价
“都已经被定价了。” 但与此同时，$TSEM 年初至今还在 -1.89%。 很多散户其实比机构更早动手。 $AXTI 就是最好的例子——它在过去三个月里翻了 4 倍。 对于像 $SOI 和 $TSEM 这种利基上游供应商，我还是不太相信“已经定价”这个说法；但对 $LITE 和 $COHR，我大概率会认同。
原推 ↗英文原文
“Priced in”. Meanwhile $TSEM is chilling at -1.89% YTD. Lot of retail are earlier than institutions. $AXTI was the perfect example before it went up 4x in the past three months. Don’t quite think so with niche upstream suppliers like $SOI and $TSEM but likely yes to $LITE and $COHR
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用 Nvidia GTC 前夕串联光子供应链
$NVDA 的 GTC 就在下周。 市场也在猜，Nvidia 的新硅光架构会公布哪些名字。 > $TSEM 与 $NVDA 合作硅光 > $NVDA 投资了 $COHR 和 $LITE 以锁定供应链 > $AXTI 是 InP 衬底的瓶颈 > Soitec（$SOI）在硅光的 SOI 衬底上几乎是垄断 嗯，$NVDA 的供应链里到底会有哪些公司呢？线索完全没有嘛！ 还是等发布会再看吧？
原推 ↗英文原文
$NVDA GTC is next week. And markets are wondering what names will be announced with Nvidia’s new silicon photonics architecture. > $TSEM works with $NVDA for silicon photonics > $NVDA invested in both $COHR and $LITE to secure supply chains > $AXTI a bottleneck for InP substrates > Soitec ( $SOI ) a monopoly around SOI substrates for silicon photonics Hmmm. There’s zero clues to what companies might be in the supply chain of $NVDA! Better wait for the event to find out?
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认为 Soitec 的重估空间比别的名字更大
@zzzpw4a 分散投资当然能降低风险。 集中配置通常更容易拿到更高回报。 在我看来，$SOI 由于起点更低，重估空间还更大。
原推 ↗英文原文
@zzzpw4a Diversification is always good for lower risk. Concentration is better for higher returns. IMO $SOI has more room to be re-rated given its starting point.
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感谢媒体覆盖 Soitec，并确认自己的核心论点
这次终于感谢 MarketScreener 对 $SOI 的真实报道。 文章写道： “在专门讨论 Soitec 的帖子里，作者提出了几个论点。他认为，该集团可能受益于 CPO（共封装光学）的发展，而 CPO 是为伴随人工智能和数据中心崛起而设计的一种光子架构。根据他的说法，Soitec 在该技术所用的某些 SOI 衬底上拥有近乎垄断的地位，如果光子技术被大规模采用，这一优势可能变得具有战略意义。该投资者还提到，他认为估值水平偏低，并相信到 2027 年，市场可能会开始提前布局一个对光子技术有前景的周期。” 这其实就是我原来的 thesis，没有多余修饰。 上一次 FT 和 Bloomberg 报道我的 $RPI 论点时，他们莫名其妙给贴上“meme stock”的标签，还硬加了不少我根本没说过的话，直接带来负面情绪。 不过话说回来： $SOI 基本上是 CPO 衬底层上的虚拟垄断。 未来一两年我会继续持有，因为我预计它会成为 $NVDA 主导的下一轮架构起量中的最大受益者。
原推 ↗英文原文
Thank you MarketScreener for actual coverage of $SOI this time. The article writes: “In the post dedicated to Soitec, the author puts forward several arguments. He believes that the group could benefit from the development of CPO (co-packaged optics), a photonic architecture designed to accompany the rise of artificial intelligence and data centers. According to him, Soitec would have a quasi-monopolistic position on certain SOI substrates used in this technology, an advantage that could become strategic if photonics is adopted on a large scale. The investor also mentions a valuation level that he considers low and believes that the market could begin to position itself ahead of a promising cycle for photonics by 2027” This was exactly the thesis, no extra fluff. Last time media from FT and Bloomberg covered my thesis on $RPI, they labeled it a “meme-stock” out of nowhere. With many outlets straight up adding words never stated, which triggered negative sentiment. That being said: $SOI is a virtual monopoly over the substrate layer for CPO. I plan to hold my positions over the next year or two, as I expect it to be the largest beneficiary of the upcoming architectural ramp spearheaded by $NVDA.
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把整条光子供应链都买下来并不奇怪
@demarscrypto 如果你认为 AI 的新范式就是光子化，那把整条光子供应链都买下来其实没什么问题。 衬底：$AXTI、$SOI 组装 / 激光 / 收发器 / 供应链：$AAOI、$LITE、$COHR 晶圆厂：$TSEM 这些就是我喜欢的名字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@demarscrypto There's nothing wrong with buying the entire photonics supply chain if you see it being the new paradigm of AI. Substrates: $AXTI, $SOI Assembly/Laser/Transceivers/supply chain: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR Foundry: $TSEM Were the names I've liked.
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更喜欢 SOI 的弹性，但也看好 TSEM 的去风险化
@AtlasShrug1 我也更偏好 $SOI，因为它的上行空间更大。 不过，$TSEM 体量更大，而且我觉得它因为产能积压和 $NVDA 的双重支撑，已经明显去风险了。 而且我也看到它未来两年会强劲复合增长，所以就在这个位置做多了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 I prefer $SOI as well, much higher upside. However, $TSEM is much larger player but I see it being very de-risked from both backlogged capacity + $NVDA. And I do see this strongly compounding over the next two years so I went long around here.
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看多 Tower Semi 作为光子代工层的非对称机会
我做多 $TSEM，把它看成光子领域里的 $TSM。 我最看好的两只 CPO 标的是 $SOI 和 Tower Semi。 考虑到下周 $NVDA GTC 会有关于新光子架构的催化，我预计 Tower Semi 会迎来很强的催化。 Nvidia 上个月已经直接和 Tower 合作扩展 1.6T 硅光，这几乎就是在给 GTC 提示，随后很可能推动下游玩家采用它。 而现在，Tower 已经是 1.6T SiPh PIC 的领先供应商，也是规模化 CPO 架构的主要代工厂（另一个是 GlobalFoundries）。 根据我的前瞻估算： 2028 年前瞻 PE 约为 16.8 倍到 18.1 倍。 （Tower 目标到 2028 年实现 28.4 亿美元收入，经营利润率约 31.7%，净利润约 7.5 亿美元。） 要注意的是，他们计划中的 SiPh 产能已有 70% 以上被预订到 2028 年了，而光子业务甚至还没真正起量。 所以我预计，随着光子产能极度扩张以及分配价格上调，而这些还没被模型完全计入，Tower 的盈利会明显超预期。 另外，$TSEM 因为 70% 产能已被预订，实际上风险已经大幅下降。 它的市值之所以还低，很大程度上是因为它是光子供应链里非常冷门的上游玩家。 但我预计 $NVDA GTC 会成为把它推向溢价估值的催化剂。 我做多 $TSEM，是把它当成上游光子代工层的非对称上行标的。
原推 ↗英文原文
I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics. My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi. Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week: I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst. Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T silicon photonics last month (hint hint for GTC), likely pushing the downstream players to use it. And now, Tower is the leading supplier of 1.6T SiPh PICs and the primary foundry for scale-up CPO architectures. (the other being global foundries) From my forward est: 2028 Forward P/E: ~16.8x to ~18.1x (Tower set a target $2.84B revenue by 2028, with ~31.7% operating margin, ~$750M in net profit) The thing to note is over 70% of their planned SiPh capacity is already reserved through 2028. And photonics haven't even ramped up yet. So, I expect them to strongly beat earning projections due to extreme photonics scaling + allocations price hikes that's not modeled into projections. Also, $TSEM is heavily de-risked by 70% of capacity already being reserved. MC is likely due to $TSEM being a very obscure upstream player in the photonics supply chain. But I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations. I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer.
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列出自己最喜欢的一篮子名字
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI、$AAOI、SK 海力士、$RDDT、$HIMS
原推 ↗英文原文
@jaegerjaque7 $SOI, $AAOI, SK Hynix, $RDDT, $HIMS
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反感权威论证，除非能讲清估值和 CPO
@AtlasShrug1 我真的很反感“诉诸权威”的论点，因为除了“行业里有人脉”和“30 年经验”之外，它几乎没有什么实质内容。 除非对方能就估值和 CPO 给出具体论点，否则我会直接忽略。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 Really hate arguments from authority since there’s zero material substance aside from “connections in the industry” and “30 years experience”. Unless there’s a specific argument they had around valuation and cpo, then I’d dismiss it.
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调侃自己喜欢的几个名字现在都涨了
@iiiiiiiivanth 哈哈，恭喜。 我之前最喜欢的两个是 $AAOI 和 $AXTI，年初最喜欢的是 $LITE。 现在 $SOI 也加入这个队伍了。
原推 ↗英文原文
@iiiiiiiivanth lol congrats. $AAOI and $AXTI were my two favorites earlier. $LITE was at the start of the year. Now $SOI has joined the party
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反驳称 Soitec 被低估且是光子链垄断者
@AtlasShrug1 我会说那位分析师当时对 $SOI 的判断并不懂行——如果它的账面市值比只有 1 倍、PS 只有 2 倍，而且还是 CPO 的垄断者，那就更说明如此。 不是每个人都懂光子供应链。
原推 ↗英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 I’d say that analyst didn’t know what they were talking about then with $SOI if it trades at 1x book value, 2x P/S and is a monopoly over cpo. Not everyone has domain expertise in photonic supply chains
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把 KRKNF 当交易想法，仍偏好 Soitec
@Noobverest 那些只是交易思路，我自己并没有持有像 $KRKNF 这种票。 不过我确实喜欢 Octopus。 $SOI 是我高信念的光子多头！
原推 ↗英文原文
@Noobverest Those were just trade ideas, I don’t have positions in stuff like $KRKNF. I did like Octopus though $SOI was high conviction photonics long!
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调侃自己发帖后 Soitec 涨了 20%
一个普通人在网上发了下自己对市值数十亿美元公司 $SOI 的看法…… 结果它就涨了 20%。 我现在这么强了吗？
原推 ↗英文原文
How does a random person posting their thoughts on a multi billion dollar company $SOI … Send it up 20% Am I that powerful now? https://t.co/fltXyAOyxC
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认为 MRVL 受益有限，更看好 Soitec 和 TSEM
@siflower 你从 $MRVL 能拿到的直接敞口其实很有限。Celestial 的收入大约是 2028 年 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元。 Marvell 的大部分收入起量来自到 2028 年的 $MSFT Maia 和 ASIC，不过它依然是一只很棒的多头。 至于 CPO，我觉得 Soitec 和 $TSEM 大概是两个更关键的名字。
原推 ↗英文原文
@siflower You're getting very minimal exposure from $MRVL. Celestial revenue was ~$500m 2028, $1B 2029. Most of Marvell's revenue ramp comes from $MSFT Maia and ASICs toward 2028, but it's an amazing long nevertheless. For CPO Soitec and $TSEM are probably the two.
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认为 Soitec 因光子垄断继续大涨只是开始
看来市场确实喜欢隐藏的光子垄断？ Soitec 盘中又涨了 16%。 如果你看 $NVDA 主导的 CPO 光子架构起量：这几乎是抛物线式的。 $SOI 很可能会成为一只可以拿很多年的票，因为它是 CPO 的衬底垄断者。 而且最重要的是，下周还有即将到来的 $NVDA GTC 发布会。 这大概率会提醒机构去寻找他们错过的玩家，比如 $AXTI，现在再加上 $SOI。
原推 ↗英文原文
Turns out markets like hidden photonics monopolies? Soitec is up 16% intraday. If you look at the CPO photonics architectural ramp led by $NVDA: It’s parabolic. $SOI is likely a name that people can hold for many years as the substrate monopoly for CPO. And best of yet, there’s the upcoming $NVDA GTC announcement next week. Which would likely signal to institutions to start looking into players they missed like $AXTI, and now $SOI.
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解释 Soitec 在光子 SOI 上的授权收入逻辑
你看到的那部分来自亚洲玩家，比如信越化学。他们都从 Soitec 那里拿了光子 SOI 的授权。 Soitec 并不是制造 100% 的晶圆，但它能从几乎 100% 的晶圆里拿到收入。 这就是你问 ChatGPT 时它经常漏掉的细节，因为 Soitec 在 CPO 领域是真正的垄断者。
原推 ↗英文原文
The other % come you’re looking at from Asian players like Shin Etsu. All license from Soitec for photonics SOI. Soitec don’t manufacture 100% of the wafers but they derive revenue from near 100% of them. That’s the nuance ChatGPT misses when you ask, because Soitec is a genuine monopoly in the cpo space.
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认为 AXTI 才是最接近 Soitec 的对标
@brener_moshe 完全不同。 Soitec 最接近的对标其实是 $AXTI。
原推 ↗英文原文
@brener_moshe Way way different. Closest comparison to Soitec is $AXTI
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批评对 Soitec 的估值与 CPO 分析太差
@VJNCapital 这大概是我迄今为止读过最离谱的分析，恭喜你。 你把股价变动都算错了，却拿这个去说市场已经定价；而且你还把下行周期里的历史收入增长拿来套一个面向未来的 CPO 起量项目。
原推 ↗英文原文
@VJNCapital This is perhaps the dumbest analysis I’ve read to date congrats. You got the stock price change wrong and used that to say the market has priced it in and looked at previous revenue growth during a downturn for a forward CPO ramp play.
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给出 Soitec 到 2027 年底可能涨 4 倍的个人预测
@WaterJunkieCat 到 2027 年底，我个人对 Soitec 的预测大概是 400%。
原推 ↗英文原文
@WaterJunkieCat Late 2027 maybe 400% is my personal projection for Soitec.
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称赞 Soitec 的供应链信息图
@Blinklebloop Soitec 在供应链中的位置图做得很棒。
原推 ↗英文原文
@Blinklebloop Great infographic on Soitech’s position in the supply chain
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高信念看多 Soitec，认为下行有限且上行巨大
@B38B37 我对 Soitec 还是高信念。 从这里看，我觉得下行风险不大，而来自 CPO 的上行空间非常大。 现在就是等一等，但感觉几乎是必然的。
原推 ↗英文原文
@B38B37 High conviction with Soitec, don’t see much downside risk from here and upside from CPO is massive. It’s just a waiting game but feels inevitable