$HIMX
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Computex是寻找新CPO敞口公司的机会，提到先进光电和大立光。
在台湾 Computex，对于新的 CPO 敞口公司来说，总是寻找想法的好机会： 例如 3362 先进光电，约4.77亿美元市值；以及大立光(3008)，约146亿美元市值。 PMLA（微透镜阵列）和 FAU。有点让我想起 $HIMX / Foci。 不过，采样/演示阶段和拥有活跃客户之间是有差异的，所以还需要在此基础上做更多研究。 这只是一个很好的研究起点。
英文原文
At Computex Taiwan, for new CPO exposure companies, always a good opportunity to find ideas: Eg. 3362 Advanced Optoelectronic ~$477M with Largan Precision (3008) ~$14.6B PMLA (microlens array) and FAU. Kinda reminds me of $HIMX / Foci There’s a difference between sampling/demo stage though and having active customers, so need do more research beyond this. Just a good starting research process
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中文长文：列出多个实质性垄断瓶颈，并讨论SIVE、HIMX、Foci等design-in/out风险。
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的： - MSSCORP（6830）：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅（SOI）衬底市场。 - NGK（5333）：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂（TFLN）晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟（InP）衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯（Shunsin）这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地。 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence（壁仞供应商）、Lightmatter、Celestial 等行业领军者。 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX 或 Foci 未来面临被踢出局的风险最大，很可能被台积电光学部门采钰（Visera 6789）这类巨头垂直整合。不过未来两三年，借助 CPO 相关 FAU 和无源器件，它们眼前依然有巨大赚钱机会。
英文原文
几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇
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质疑 POET 估值高过 FOCI 的合理性
为什么 $POET（31.4 亿美元）的估值会比 FOCI（3363，31 亿美元）还高？？？ FOCI 明明就是 CPO 量产爬坡的瓶颈，也是 $TSM 和 $NVDA 的主要供应商。 我非常看好 FOCI，等机构发现这个名字后，它会跑赢。 另外，FOCI 管理层能不能像 $HIMX 那样去做 NASDAQ ADR？谢谢。
英文原文
HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)??? FOCI IS LITERALLY THE BOTTLENECK FOR CPO VOLUME RAMP AND MAIN SUPPLIER FOR $TSM AND $NVDA. High conviction Foci outperforms once institutions find this name. Also, can Foci management please pursue NASDAQ ADR like $HIMX? Thank you.
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说明 FOCI 在 CPO 暴露里非常有吸引力
FOCI（3363）在现在这个位置上，作为 CPO 敞口看起来极具吸引力，市值大概只有 33.5 亿美元。 1. $TSM COUPE 先进封装负责人暗示，FOCI 提供的 FAU 供给会是量产中的大瓶颈。 2. Morgan Stanley note 预计他们会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，市占率最高可到 50%。 3. $HIMX 释放了创纪录需求的信号，而且表示 Foci 应该扩产，这意味着中期需求可见度很高。 4. 根据 Goldman Sachs 的研究，FAU 和光学组件占 CPO 相关 BOM 的很大比例。 5. 总体 CPO TAM 按 GS 的说法，未来两年会从接近 0 增长到 910 亿美元。 方向上我对这个主题非常有信心（NFA），尽管短期市场波动很大。 风险在于后续 generation 被设计替代。 但在未来 1-2 年里，我认为它有很高的重估潜力，相比其他名字也许需要持续跟踪。 只是顺手分享一下我持有的更纯 CPO 敞口思路。
英文原文
FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure. 1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production. 2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note. 3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility) 4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note. 5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note. I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility. Risks include getting designed out for later generations. But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored. Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.
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认为不是所有卡点都适合买入，AAOI 的收入弹性更强。
是的，从技术角度这样理解很棒。 一只股票是不是好长仓，维度非常多。 我之前也看过 $HIMX，如果它真能转化成实质收入，我也许会做多，但最后没有下场。 对 $AAOI 我则非常有信心，因为它的收入预测会在一个巨大的光模块 TAM 里上升。 我不同意很多选票，最后走的是另一条路。不是所有不那么出名的瓶颈点都适合做长仓。
英文原文
Yes that's a great way to approach it from the tech angle. Whether something is a great long, is extremely multifaceted. I was also looking at $HIMX if it translated into material revenue as well and decided not to take a long position. $AAOI I have high conviction on given revenue projections ramp in a massive TAM for optical transceivers. Disagree with many picks and went the other way. Not all lesser known chokepoints make great longs.
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把 HIMX 的下跌当作瓶颈点教训，认为部分光子/光模块标的的 TAM 逻辑更强。
关于 $HIMX 以及它现在已经跌了 31.54%（还被宏观进一步加速）这个点，非常值得肯定。 这对理解瓶颈点是个很好的教训。 他们在这个“meme stock”上忽略了两件事： - 瓶颈点可以被设计绕开。 - 这个瓶颈点也许并不足以真正转化为收入，就像 $AXTI 那样。 而 $AAOI 这边，如果你看的是光模块出货预测，它的 TAM 增量其实非常大，只是他们之前一直偏空。 我也大体上不同意很多光子学标的的判断（比如说 $POET 的估值应该是 $SIVE 激光供应商的 7 倍）。 或者在没有看清楚可选性 + 巨大 TAM 下收入上行的情况下，对 $AAOI 持空。 不过一年后谁对谁错，我们到时候再看。最近整体下跌大多是被宏观加速的，不是说 $SIVE 或 $HIMX 的 thesis 错了。 但确实很有意思，芯片设计公司和分析师们在这些想法上的方向开始走相反路。
英文原文
Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro). This is a good lesson around chokepoints. They missed two things on this "Meme Stock": - Chokepoints can be designed out. - Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI. $AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on. Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier). Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM. But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong). But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
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认为 SOI 可能供应 HIMX->TSM 链条，并在混合树脂上几乎垄断。
@zephyr_z9 这其实不太是资产负债表的问题。 他们更可能是 $HIMX -> $TSM COUPE 链条的供应商，而且在 WLO 所需的混合树脂上几乎形成了半垄断。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Not really about the balance sheet per say. They're the likely supplier to $HIMX -> $TSM COUPE, and had a semi-monopoly over hybrid resins needed for WLO
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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博主分享光子学供应链投资组合，按风险等级分层推荐多只股票。
我是最早一批覆盖光子学供应链股票的人。 大多数自发布以来涨幅达到100-400%以上。 以下是我的核心论点帖的概要总结： 截至今日“最安全”的多头标的： - $TSEM（高塔半导体） - $SOI（Soitec） - $COHR——随时间推移具有防御性的复利型公司。 Soitec——在硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)架构攀升中拥有基板垄断地位，估值极低（即使近期上涨40%+，可能仍只有1.4倍市净率）。 高塔半导体——2028年市盈率处于十几倍区间，70%以上的产能已被预订，是$NVDA架构合作伙伴，基本上是光子学领域的纯Play版$TSM。 Coherent——在光子学领域基本上覆盖从材料/基板到激光器再到光收发器的全产业链，同时也是许多其他垂直领域的基础供应商。 最高贝塔/极高增长多头标的： $AXTI——与Sumitomo形成磷化铟(InP)双头垄断（后者正面临出口管制），与Vital在上游原料端形成双头垄断。 基本上，AXT处于整个光子学食物链的顶端。出口管制风险确实存在，但我的论点是：如果AXT倒下，那么AI驱动的光子学建设也会崩塌。所以还不如做多AXT。 $AAOI——到2027年收入增长10倍。激光器->设计->组装，美国制造。主要不确定性在于执行能力、扩大从$COHR收购的激光器产能等。 超大规模数据中心运营商的需求都存在。他们能交付吗？我愿意承担这个风险。 $IQE——基本上完全依赖重组和清理债务（市值约2亿美元）。作为$LITE的外延晶圆(epiwafer)知名供应商，其主要竞争对手Landmark估值超过35亿美元。 其现有产能（反应器）潜力存在，但基本上需要成功转型光子学并切断传统业务的拖累，才能实现10倍的重新定价。 风险最高，但也可能有相应的回报。 做多$GOOGL TPU生态系统相关： $LITE——由于光学电路交换机(OCS)垄断地位，其光学相关的物料清单(BOM)占比非常高。 如果你认为谷歌TPU是一个可能最终像$NVDA那样的万亿美元项目，那就做多$LITE。 谷歌计划2026年资本支出1750-1800亿美元，其AI基础设施CTO表示计划逐年增加，可能在未来8年投入1万亿美元。 如果这个计划成立，$LITE相对于未来潜力来说估值极低。当然，他们也向其他超大规模数据中心运营商供应激光器，但我会说它与谷歌增长的关联度更高。 _ 还有许多其他我覆盖过的标的： $POET——我本人不做多，但其4亿美元资产负债表提供了良好的缓冲。我发现从$MRVL攀升中发现的Celestial项目太遥远——例如2028年预计收入5亿美元、2029年10亿美元——对于2026年来说不具实质意义。 这很大程度上取决于他们的中介器(interposers)是否能获得其他超大规模数据中心运营商的认证，而不是通过Marvell走后门——这是主要的看涨逻辑。 $HIMX——我确实发现这个论点略有说服力，作为可能的$TSM共封装光学(CPO)供应商。 但我个人更偏好$SOI，会将更多集中度投入其中（因为Soitec作为已知供应商已基本覆盖整个硅光子学领域，而且刚从下行周期中走出）。 还有很多其他的如$NOK、$SHMN也很有趣，但我个人已将集中度投入到我认为最有说服力的标的。 像$LITE这样的“拥挤标的”并不意味着没有剩余上涨空间。只是在有新消息之前，估值已经更多地被反映进去了。 存在许多“关键供应商”，但供应链中的重要性...与将其转化为极高营收增长（例如$AAOI -> 45亿美元营收）之间存在差异。 但对于光子学敞口的简要总结，我的投资组合大致如下： 高集中度（更安全）： $TSEM晶圆代工、$SOI基板、$COHR全产业链 做多+卖看跌期权组合（高波动性）： $AXTI基板/原料、$IQE外延晶圆、$AAOI光收发器供应链 然后做多谷歌相关$LITE
英文原文
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
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建议通过虚值期权和组合保证金降低行权风险，追求每周1%的可持续收益。
关键在于，如果 $AMZN 触及 207.5 的溢价位，或 $NBIS 触及 96 的溢价位，你应该求着被行权（assigned），这些也是你可以买入看涨期权（calls）的价位。我的建议是选择更虚值（OTM）的合约并使用组合保证金（portfolio margin），而不是像 $AMZN 215 那样选择更接近行权价的合约，从而降低每周被行权的风险。除了 HIMX、CIFR 和可能的 META，我提到的这几个行权价被触及的可能性较小；如果真触及了，你应持有股票进行波段交易（swing trade）。但正如你指出的，每周约 1% 的收益对大多数人来说更可持续。
英文原文
The thing is if $AMZN ever hits $207.5 - premium or $NBIS ever hits $96 - premium you should beg to get assigned and those are levels you might buy calls on. Going more OTM and using portfolio margin is my suggestion instead of going closer to strike like $215 on $AMZN and having higher risk of assignment every week. My strikes are less likely aside from hims/CIFR/ possibly meta up there are the three I'd say, and if they do hit, you want to hold the stock for a swing trade. But yeah as you pointed out 1% a week or so is a lot more sustainable for most people