$TEL
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展示CPO/光子学ETF模拟仓YTD表现，等权重投资收益率50%，看好光子学长周期。
Serenity的Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF模拟仓。各成分股年初至今收益率：$IQE：+282.5%，$AXTI：+246.6%，Landmark：167.54%，$AAOI：+157.37%，$SIVE：+113.08%，$SOI：+103.54%，$LITE：+100.27%，$LWLG：+92.35%，$VIAV：+88.71%，$AIXA：+73.92%，$AEHR：+70.4%，$CIEN：+67.67%，$FORM：+60.67%，$FOCI：+60.44%，$CAMT：+49.13%，$GLW：+46.77%，$SMHN：+45.94%，Fujikura：+43.89%，$COHR：+41.81%，$KEYS：+40.48%，$TSEM：+36.42%，$ASX：+29.89%，$MTSI：+28.34%，$NOK：+27.5%，Shin-Etsu：+27.33%，$ONTO：+26.28%，$BESI：+24.71%，$UMC：+18.11%，$INTC：+17.27%，$OXINF：+15.03%，$FN：+12.79%，Eoptolink：+11.82%，$TSM：+6.00%，$HIMX：+5.39%，$SMTC：+4.11%，Sumitomo：+3.67%，$CSCO：+3.25%，Innolight：+0.33%，$MRVL：+0.16%，$APH：-6.48%，$MXL：-7.62%，$AVGO：-7.99%，$POET：-12.99%，$TEL：-14.93%。这是回顾性的，但你们知道我在很多赢家仓位已经持有一段时间了（例如前六/七名，除了Landmark外的$AXTI或$LITE）。但如果你好奇年初投资整个光子学趋势的话，等权重收益率是多少？50.033%。我预计光子学长周期(supercycle)将持续未来数年，这些名字中的许多将成为未来的大受益者。特别是随着共封装光学(CPO)被用于扩展AI部署。光子学是AI的新架构范式。
英文原文
The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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发布CPO供应链全景图，预测明年CPO拐点，建议从EML瓶颈轮动至SiPh架构赢家。
即将发布的共封装光学(CPO)/硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)瓶颈速查表： $SIVE、Sumitomo、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、$MTSI、$AAOI - 光源（连续波分布式反馈激光器CW DFB Lasers） $TSEM、$GFS、$UMC、$TSM、$INTC - 硅光子学 foundry代工 $NOK、$CIEN、$CSCO、$COHR - DCO相干数字信号处理 $HIMX、FOCI (3363.TWO) - 微透镜+光纤阵列 $POET - 光学中介层(Optical Interposers) $SOI、$AXTI、Shin-Etsu - 衬底 $FN、$ASX、Innolight、Eoptolink - 光学封装与组装 $MTSI、$SMTC、$MRVL、$MXL - 模拟/混合信号集成电路 $LWLG - 投机性调制器材料 $GLW、$APH、$TEL、$FIT、Fujikura - 连接器和光纤 $FORM、$KEYS、$VIAV、$AEHR - 测试与测量 $BESI、$SMHN、$ONTO、$CAMT - 先进封装与混合键合(Hybrid Bonding) 其中许多是私营公司，如Lightmatter、Ayar、Ranovus等。 现在……每个人都在问……如何获利？ 如果你看CPO总可用市场(TAM)预测，它是一条直线上升，明年是CPO大规模部署的拐点。 阿尔法收益来自捕捉轮动： 从当前电吸收调制激光器(EML)瓶颈（$LITE、$COHR类型）到CPO的硅光子学/连续波分布式反馈激光器架构赢家。 最高上涨潜力的公司是那些不在当前周期内、但在下个周期内的公司。 $SOI、$SIVE或$AEHR就是完美例证。 搭乘当前可插拔(pluggable)瓶颈，如$AAOI。 但真正的阿尔法收益来自抢先机构布局下一波CPO瓶颈。 资本轮动不可避免。
英文原文
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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梳理高纯铜、铜钨及铜基建相关的美股标的。
@Ren_aramb 好问题，对于高纯度铜（无氧铜/铜铬锆合金），是 $FCX 和 $SCCO。 $MTRN 用于铜钨合金(Copper-Tungsten)。 $APH 和 $TEL 用于引擎到激光器之间的铜基础设施。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Good question, so for high purity copper (OFHC Copper / CuCrZr), $FCX and $SCCO. $MTRN for CuW (Copper-Tungsten). $APH and $TEL for copper infra between engine -> laser.