$MTSI
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看好SIVE获代工产能及上市融资，预期2027H1收入拐点。
@wannabepanacea 鉴于目前业界普遍传闻共封装光学(CPO)中的分布式反馈激光器(DFB)短缺，我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能否获得更多晶圆代工产能分配。因为我相当确信，一旦其资格认证进入量产爬坡阶段，产品就会售罄。除此之外： > 其他财报（如 $MTSI / $AAOI）重申的需求/供应失衡有助于佐证这一点。 > 上一份财报中提到的与可插拔(Pluggable)玩家的新进展/资格认证，可能是影响最大的因素。 > 与 $JBL、~ $AEVA、$POET、$GFS 或其他机会的进展，如果能获得初步采购订单(PO)那就太好了。 > 重申纳斯达克上市更新（我们已经得到消息，计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍将此列为优先事项，因为它能为其并购(M&A)活动解锁更多资金，希望用于可插拔技术栈。 我认为收入拐点大约在 2027 年上半年开始，因此当前的收入/利润数据并不重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发表类似“我们制造的任何东西都预计在 2028 年售罄”的声明，那就太棒了。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
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InP激光器短缺利好SIVE，可套用AAOI产能模型。
我认为现在是重新审视 $SIVE 的时机，其年化产能收入的中位预测约为 4.27 亿美元。 鉴于近期的行业财报： > $AAOI 指出光模块（transceivers）需求存在 20-40% 的失衡（激光器是瓶颈）。 > $MTSI 表示许多“客户因磷化铟（InP）DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急联系我们”（在其他产品线中）。 > 美国提议禁止新的中国光模块（中际旭创/新易盛）。 > AOI 因激光器被分配给光模块，未实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署。 解读是：可以将适用于 $AAOI 的产能-需求吸收模型，同样应用于 Sivers 等其他激光器厂商。 鉴于 InP CW DFB 产能的广泛短缺和需求失衡。
英文原文
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.
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激光器及InP衬底未来2-3年或现短缺，CPO扩产加剧瓶颈。
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy 好问题！这是逐年变化的，很难从2026年预测到2030年的短缺，但这绝对是一个结构性的多年需求周期。 我想指出的是，激光器（lasers）在特定领域很可能在未来2-3年面临极端短缺，尤其是在共封装光学(CPO)规模化初期至少如此。 例如，CPO激光器市场所需的产能“比今天大8到10倍”，并补充说：“我认为……完全没影响，因为需求远大于全球产能。” 至于磷化铟(InP)衬底，$AAOI 表示2027年没问题，但由于其关键性希望组建合资企业。 $AXTI 看起来只是逐年倍增产能，具体取决于你问谁。 一些台湾外延片(epiwafer)厂商称InP衬底面临极端短缺，而它们正是激光器厂商的上游。 你的激光器厂商如 $AAOI 和 $MTSI 表示他们没问题。 无论如何，我们看到这转化为 $AXTI 的收入拐点（2027年约1.3亿美元/季度），但我预计鉴于其市场地位，平均售价(ASP)一路上涨。
英文原文
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy Good question! This something year-by-year, can't really predict shortages into 2030 from 2026, but it's definitely a structural multi-year demand cycle. Something that I want to flag is that it looks like lasers in specific would likely have extreme shortages for the next 2-3 years, especially during CPO scale up at the very least. eg. CPO laser market would require capacity "8 to 10x bigger compared to today," and added, "I think… no effect at all because the demand is much bigger than the worldwide capacity." As for InP substrates, $AAOI said they were fine for 2027 calendar year but wanted to form JVs because of likely how critical they are since. $AXTI looked like they were just multiplying capacity year after year and depends on who you ask.. Some of the Taiwan epiwafer players say it's extreme shortages for InP substrates, when they feed into your laser players. Your laser players like $AAOI and $MTSI say they're fine. Regardless, we see that convert into revenue inflection points with AXTI anyway (~$130m/quarter in 2027), but I'm expecting ASP to be hiked along the way given their positioning.
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AAOI财报揭示DSP/TIA瓶颈利好同行，且营收增速惊人。
以下是 $AAOI 财报的一些要点摘要： - 他们也指出了数字信号处理(DSP)和收发器接口放大器(TIA)的瓶颈，这对 $MXL、$SMTC 和 $MTSI 等公司来说是积极的行业利好信号。 - 关于营收增长，他们预计第四季度营收将超过 5 亿美元，这种增长速度简直令人难以置信。 供参考： 第二季度：1.919 亿美元 第三季度：约 2.55 亿-2.9 亿美元 第四季度：5 亿美元以上 到 2027 年中：季度营收年化运行率约 14.1 亿美元 这些光通信玩家强劲的营收爬坡速度总是让我印象深刻。
英文原文
Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.
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AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。
哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。
英文原文
Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.
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MTSI财报证实磷化铟DFB激光器短缺，利好SIVE和LITE。
$MTSI 财报电话会议记录： “由于磷化铟分布反馈(DFB)激光器普遍供应短缺，客户正迫切地向我们寻求解决方案。” 重点在于“迫切”、“连续波(CW) DFB激光器”以及“向我们寻求”。 像 $SIVE 和 $LITE 这样的连续波 DFB 概念股，听到这一激光器瓶颈得到验证应该会很高兴。
英文原文
$MTSI earnings transcript: "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us". CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.
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AAOI无CPO中标，MTSI商业化时间待定，CPO激光器进展不明。
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI 的收入主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但没有共封装光学(CPO)的设计中标。其他像 $MTSI 这样的公司似乎在 CPO 激光器领域莫名消失了。CEO 表示商业化时间“待定”，目前正处于可靠性测试阶段。
英文原文
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And
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IQE与Tower Semi签约，印证其在西方光学供应链中的关键地位。
哇，$IQE 和 $TSEM 签署了一项多年的磷化铟(InP)外延片协议。还记得我在 $12 时告诉过大家 IQE 对西方光学供应链的重要性吗？$MTSI 曾不得不费尽周折以确保从 IQE 获得供应。现在又有了与 Tower Semi 的关键交易。
英文原文
Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi.
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区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
英文原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
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讨论CHIPS法案资助公司被并购较难，参股或是路径。
回复 @MikeBaumgart1：大型公司很难一时兴起就收购像 $SIVE 这种获得 CHIPS Act 资金支持的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种和政府有关联的公司。 很多企业创投部门有时也会错过。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路径。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会入股 $SIVE。
英文原文
@MikeBaumgart1 It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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IQE 过去三个月涨 4 倍，债务缓解降低长期风险
还不错吧？ $IQE 在过去 3 个月里已经涨了 4 倍。 $MTSI 帮它还债，确实在长期上降低了风险。 我很好奇，有没有 anon 听进去了？ https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
英文原文
Not too shabby? $IQE is now up 4x since in the past 3 months. $MTSI paying off their debts does derisk the company long term. I’m curious if anyone listened anon? https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
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列出一串相关光学链条公司
@milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric、Furukawa Electric、Mitsubishi Electric、$MTSI、$LITE
英文原文
@milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, $MTSI, and $LITE
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LITE 的 CW laser 瓶颈验证了 SIVE 的上游地位
哇……巨大的 CW laser 瓶颈。 有意思的是，$LITE 被 CW lasers 卡住了，所以它们要去公开市场买： “现在我们在自己的供应链里，确实看到一点紧张，必须去外部市场拿 lasers，也就是 CW lasers。” $SIVE / Win、Sumitomo、Furukawa 等都在一个结构性卖断货的市场里…… 很可能是因为像 $LITE 这样的公司必须继续生产 EML。 这也开始解释了为什么 Ayar 在网站上只把 $SIVE 列为唯一 laser 供应商，还把 $LITE / $MTSI 删掉了。
英文原文
Woah... Massive CW laser bottleneck. It's interesting $LITE is bottlenecked by CW lasers so they buy them on the open market: "Now we’ve seen a little bit of tension in our own supply line, externally to get lasers from the external market, CW lasers." $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and others operate in a structurally sold out market... Likely because companies like $LITE have to keep producing EMLs. Starting to make more sense why Ayar made $SIVE the only laser supplier on their website and removed $LITE / $MTSI?
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Sivers成为CPO关键激光供应商，NVDA引发的产能瓶颈正驱动AMD等厂商争抢上游资源。
看到$SIVE成为CPO(共封装光学)的Tier 1激光供应商，这真的很疯狂。 这是我的预测/猜测与大致映射： $NVDA用$COHR、$LITE的产能（在他们新的20亿美元以上支出计划之后）。 早期2025年EML用了同样的手法，导致了今天的瓶颈。 现在，$AMD/超大规模云商正在争抢上游激光供应商。 因此，$SIVE + Win / $GFS成为可能的主要途径。 你可以从以下看出： -> $MVL CPO通过Celestial（Nvidia签了协议，但他们没有激光器） -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> 其他项目（如Jabil 1.6T） 因此，Sivers/Win成为Tier 1尖端关键独立激光供应商。 这一点的一些暗示： 1. $GFS在其生态系统中将$SIVE / $LITE列为仅有的两家公开激光供应商。 2. Ayar将$LITE / $MTSI从其网站上移除，并将$SIVE提升为主要激光供应商。 所以其他所有人最终都选择了Sivers，因为$COHR / $LITE已经完全分配。 我的猜测是，随着架构标准化，许多二级供应商也会抢占溢出市场份额。 明年年初，考虑到$NVDA的瓶颈，这场争夺关键环节的竞争将异常激烈。 而这家瑞典小型公司$1.2B规模的$SIVE将处于这场竞争的中心。
英文原文
It's pretty insane to see $SIVE become a Tier 1 laser supplier for CPO. This is my prediction/guess with est. mapping: $NVDA ate up all the capacity with $COHR, $LITE after their new $2B+ spending spree. Same playbook with EML early 2025, causing the bottleneck seen today. Now, $AMD / hyperscalers are scambling for upstream laser suppliers. Hence why $SIVE + Win / $GFS became likely primary route to go down. You can see this with: -> $MVL CPO through Celestial (Nvidia signed a deal, but they don't have lasers) -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> and other programs (eg. Jabil 1.6T) As a result, Sivers/Win emerged as the Tier 1 bleeding edge + critical independent laser supplier. And there's hints for this when: 1. $GFS listed $SIVE / $LITE as the two only public laser suppliers in their ecosystem. 2. Ayar removed $LITE / $MTSI off their website and elevated $SIVE to their primary laser supplier. So everyone else ended up going with Sivers since $COHR / $LITE are fully allocated. My guess is that a lot of the secondary suppliers also capture overflow as architectures standardize. But scramble for this chokepoint will be insane early next year given $NVDA bottleneck. And a small $1.2B Swedish company in $SIVE will be in the center of it.
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IQE 与 SLNH 的融资性质不同
@KingDavidvs 你是在开玩笑吗？$IQE 有 $MTSI 帮它偿还 4500 万欧元债务，这在本质上完全不同。 而像 $SLNH 这种没名气的垃圾股，却会在 1.97 亿市值上稀释掉 10 亿美元，并且 5 亿美元的 ATM 只要散户一买就直接往公开市场砸。
英文原文
@KingDavidvs Are you kidding? $IQE having $MTSI to pay off debts with 45M Euros is fundamentally different. From some no name shtco like $SLNH diluting $1B off a $197m MC, with a $500M ATM sold into the open market whenever retail buys.
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机构开始买入光子链条
@ravietweet 摩根士丹利现在最终持有了 $SOI 6.5% 的股份，这也是我另一只硅光多头。 我就是要把 AI 的结构性卡点展示给散户看，赶在机构理解之前…… Point72、$MTSI 和其他机构在我发出那篇 thesis 之后，也买了 $IQE 的流通股。
英文原文
@ravietweet Morgan Stanley now ended up holding 6.5% of $SOI, which was my other silicon photonics long. I’m do show retail the structural chokepoints in AI before institutions figure it out… Point72, $MTSI and others ended up buying $IQE float after my thesis post too.
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西方机构开始关注 SIVE
有个有意思的事实：我不认为任何大型美国机构之前持有过 $SIVE / $SIVEF，因为它原本主要是瑞典本土散户持有的股票。 另外，美国基金也有一些投资限制，阻止它们入场（例如纳斯达克上市 / 10 亿美元市值）。 但如今情况已经变了，原因包括欧洲媒体把本地持有人洗出来、Sivers 即将登陆纳斯达克，以及市值突破 10 亿美元以上。 而且 13 亿美元对超大规模云厂商和美国机构来说真的只是零钱。 我很有把握他们很多都会想要接触 CPO、硅光和激光领域，因为全世界能做这类东西的公司本来就很少，比如 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MTSI。 尤其是……一家具备 CHIPS Act 背景的激光供应商，可能会出现在 $AMD、$MRVL、$AAPL、Lightmatter、Ayar、AlChip、GUC、O-Net 以及其他像 Golden Dome 这样的供应链里。 这部分也有博弈论因素，是为了积累股份。 因为现在美西方散户已经持有了相当大一部分流通股（来自瑞典卖盘）。 而美国机构现在也想要敞口。
英文原文
Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock. There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC) That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC. Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions. And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI. Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome. Part of it is game theory for share accumulation. Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers). And US institutions now want exposure.
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增发还卖给了套利基金
@kwongny 这大概和剩下那部分股份出售给可转债套利基金有关。起初我还以为只卖给了 $MTSI，但文件里还有一笔卖给了现有投资者。
英文原文
@kwongny Probably related to the rest of the share offering sold to convertible note arbitrage firms. Originally thought it was just $MTSI but there was another tranche sold to existing investors in the filing.
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MTSI 进来后长期更看多
@Mellokhai 这是个比较细腻的看法：长期看多，尤其是 $MTSI 作为投资者并帮忙清债之后。Macom 又不是日内交易标的，所以那 4500 万美元其实被锁住了。 如果另一半增发卖给了套利可转债的投资者，短期就偏空。
英文原文
@Mellokhai Nuanced, long term bullish especially with $MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up. Short term bearish if the other half of the offering was sold to investors that arbitrage convertible notes.
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Win Semi 是 HBM4 量产核心
所以 $SIVE 不负责产能扩张，真正负责量产爬坡的是 Win Semi。 Win 的体量非常大。$AVGO、$LITE、$QCOM、联发科、$MTSI、$NXPI 全都在用他们。 他们也在 $AAPL 和 SpaceX 的供应链里。所以只要你锁定 Win 的产能，超大规模云厂商的量产放量就是可去风险的。
英文原文
So $SIVE doesn't handle capacity scaling, Win Semi does volume ramp. Win is massive. $AVGO, $LITE, $QCOM, Mediatek, $MTSI, $NXPI, all use them. They're in $AAPL, SpaceX supply chains too. So volume scaling for hyperscalers is derisked if you secure allocation and do it through Win.
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日本散户持仓是好信号
我很高兴日本社区在研究之后开始建 $SIVE 仓位！ 更强的国际股东基础总是正面的。 至于我的一些看法，市场现在看起来像这样： 1. $NVDA 把 $LITE / $COHR 的分配额度买走了 2. $AMD 的 CPO 走的是 $GFS + $SIVE / Win，剩下的激光供应可能会给 $LITE，如果还有分配的话。 3. 还有……$MRVL 的 CPO 不管怎样都需要激光器。 $SIVE 看起来是最后几家纯 merchant laser 供应商之一。 所以 Marvell 大概率会直接用 $SIVE（本来就符合 Celestial 规格），后面再多来源（也许是 $MTSI）。之后他们再把进入 Celestial 的中介封装 IP 垂直整合掉。 支持这个判断的有一些有意思的点： -> Ayar 把 $MTSI 和 $LITE 从官网上删掉了，改用了 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。Ayar 和 AlChip/GUC 等都有连接。 -> 如果看 $GFS 的幻灯片，在 $AMD 把 CPO 项目交给 GlobalFoundries 之后，只剩下 $SIVE 和 $LITE 两家公众公司。 -> $SIVE 很可能从去年开始就和 Win 有激光产能爬坡协议。 $NVDA 很可能还没把这些激光产能完全分配完，所以像 $JBL、$AMD 以及其他公司会把溢出订单给 Sivers。 因为 $LITE 已经暗示 2028 年的产能基本满了。 我可能也有错，但基于公开信息来看，情况就是这样。 至于为什么我认为它是个好长线： -> Sivers 基本上过去没怎么暴露在 800G 或更早的代际里。 -> 欧洲市场按过去 12 个月营收定价……所以之前估值一直被压得很低。 -> 它们拿到了 $NVDA 造成的超额需求。 但它们也正好站在 CPO 和甚至下一代 1.6T（$JBL LRO）扩产的最前沿，明年就会开始。 然后到 2027 年下半年或 2028 年，还能扩到硅光等相邻领域，比如可能的 $AAPL 消费设备。 或者 FMCW 4D AI 公司，比如 $AEVA。 这么多年开发，终于在明年要开花结果了。 我个人觉得市场漏掉了一个大东西，公开信息会随着时间推移慢慢被大家通过供应链关系、网站挖掘或者演示材料发现。 超大规模云厂商供应商不会无缘无故选一家 10 亿美元市值的瑞典激光公司。 和 $JBL 的直接合同就是最大的信号。 这也是我为什么高 conviction 做多。
英文原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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MTSI 不是短线股
@6m3k4z $MTSI 不是日内交易标的。
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@6m3k4z $MTSI is not a day trader.
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MTSI 参股 IQE 怎么会看空
@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI 想买下 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者？这怎么可能是利空。
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@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI plans to buy $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor? How could this be bearish.
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MTSI 接手 IQE 是大利好
@LNMDad $MTSI 接手 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者，这非常正面。
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@LNMDad This is incredibly positive having $MTSI take $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor.
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MTSI 拟投 IQE 4500 万美元
刚刚，$MTSI 计划向 $IQE 投资 4500 万美元，并进入董事会。 我说什么来着，匿名网友？？Landmark 早就产能过剩了…… + IQE 在光子供应链里本来就是结构性卡点，市值才 1 亿美元时就已经是这样了。 这笔交易也是为了锁定长期外延晶圆供应。 https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6
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Just now, $MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board. What did I say anon??? Landmark was overcapacity... + IQE was a structural chokepoint in photonics the supply chain back at $100M MC. This deal is also to secure long term epiwafer supply. https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6
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MRVL 长期受益于垂直整合
@O_bhaina $MRVL 长期会从把封装流程垂直整合中受益。 我猜他们很可能只是达成一笔交易，然后直接从 $SIVE、$MTSI，也许还有 $LITE 那里买激光器。
英文原文
@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.
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LITE 更可能供给 NVDA
@adrian_jega $LITE 的大部分产能大概率是分给了 $NVDA，而不是 $MRVL。 Ayar 把 $LITE 从官网上移除了，而且在这之前他们主要是在 $SIVE、$MTSI 和 $LITE 之间多来源采购，这其实就是一个提示。 所以他们会需要别的激光合作伙伴。
英文原文
@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.