$MTSI
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博主看好光子学供应链，认为激光器光纤将重现内存超级周期。
花旗银行TMT团队：“激光器和光纤正被定位为‘下一个HBM（高带宽内存）’。我从2025年就开始谈论像 $LITE / $AAOI 这样的激光器公司，以及向连续波(CW)架构的转变，这领先于当前的行业共识。我完全同意Lightmatter和花旗的观点。仅供参考：激光器方面：$LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / 古河电工 / 住友电工是较知名的标的。光纤方面：$GLW / 古河电工 / 古河光缆 / 住友电工是较知名的敞口（显然供应链中还有更多）。*披露，个人对该主题有持仓。补充评论称：‘紧张的供应状况将支持这些资产的稀缺性溢价。’我们已经看到激光器价格上涨，正如今天在深圳CIOE 2026上看到的 $SIVE 渠道检查以及 $LITE 的财报评论所示。因此，我认为2027-2028年的光子学超级周期将非常类似于2025-2026年的内存周期。尤其是随着高盛修正后的估计显示，每GPU-ASIC的光学内容将显著增加……
英文原文
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
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博主重申其年初对IQE的投资论点早于其他材料股事件。
@KhalidIshaq85 是的？我在今年第一季度撰写了关于 $IQE 的投资论点，当时 $MTSI、$TSEM 和其他材料相关事件尚未发生。https://t.co/jTGZ5JvK44
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 Yes? I wrote my thesis on $IQE Q1 this year before $MTSI, $TSEM and the other material events came about. https://t.co/jTGZ5JvK44
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CW激光器产能紧缺，$SIVE作为剩余现货供应商受益。
我知道大家都在关注 $NVDA 的财报…… 但你们知道 Landmark 已与美国客户签署为期4年的连续波(CW)协议以确保“充足供应”吗？ 所以现在的格局是： - $LITE（产能耗尽） - $COHR（产能耗尽） - Landmark（产能已锁定） - $AAOI（光模块产能） - $MTSI（尚未量产） - $SMTC（产能有限） 我记得今年早些时候说过，CW激光器将是下一个光学变革，且会被 Nvidia 严重瓶颈化？ 看着这一切上演很有趣，参与者已签署至2030年的长期协议(LTA)（暗示其他玩家可用产能更少）。 这对 $SIVE / Win Semi 的影响非常重大，因为它是少数拥有产能（+ CPO级激光器）的剩余CW现货供应商之一。 让我们看看他们的执行情况。
英文原文
I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.
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展望SIVE财报，重点关注光子学合作进展、JBL量产及纳斯达克上市计划。
很多人都在关注两天后 $SIVE 的财报。 我关注的重点： 1. 我希望看到更多关于光子学联合开发/认证/合同的可见性。 -> $AAOI 表示多家客户向他们咨询共封装光学(CPO)激光器（但不得不拒绝） -> $MTSI 表示许多客户咨询连续波(CW)产能（但要到2027年下半年才能上线） 所以请仔细阅读关于一家作为 $GFS 参考激光器供应商、为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块（如Intel Siph）、为Ayar提供CPO的公司。 并且处于独立供应商地位： -> 拥有独立的CW DFB供应（与Win semi合作） -> CPO级激光器。 如果有更多客户接近Sivers，这将是非常积极的信号。 2. 持续进展转化为量产 -> 我最兴奋的是 $JBL，这可能是2027年上半年主要的收入增长来源。 -> $AEVA 相比之下可能小得多，但应在2026年下半年有所贡献。 -> Ayar和光I/O玩家已表示2028年才大规模量产(HVM)，所以那里不太期待。 -> 其他可插拔玩家（来自上一份财报）的联合开发转化为认证->量产。 除此之外： 3. 纳斯达克上市 -> 我们已经得到了“未来几个季度”的时间表，所以不再需要进一步细化。得到更新总是好的。 4. 财务数据 -> 再次强调，对于处于认证周期的玩家，当前财务数据不是重点。提醒一下，本季度有一些一次性会计处理，这在表面上会影响数据。 主要看点是未来季度的量产爬坡。 -> 收入管道增加 -> 签署的任何早期量产合同 鉴于最近7000万美元的融资+自举稀释压力消除，资产负债表担忧应该已经消除。 额外惊喜： -> 关于已确保的配额的信息“例如，我们确保了大量的CW产能->鉴于当前的短缺，这将是极高的信号。 -> 重申AOI、Macom、Lumentum、Coherent提到的需求。“例如，我们获得的任何产能都将被需求填满” $AAOI 在表示2027年预计产能约4.71亿美元并重申收入指引后，股价从30美元暴涨至220美元（但随后进行了大量定向增发ATM）。 如果Sivers能给出一个雄心勃勃的多头案例+未来时间表（如2028年上半年）的满产能收入声明，那将很好，但不强求。 进一步的重新评级将有助于通过类似Cloud Light的并购来加速未来财报的收入。 显然Sivers有其他量产爬坡，但我认为光子学是市场主要定价的部分。 无论如何，对即将到来的事情感到兴奋。
英文原文
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
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Ayar等巨头选用Sivers激光器，验证其供应链核心地位。
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 好问题，主要是关于 $SIVE 的第三方评论+行动。Ayar 可能对我而言信息量最大，他们从官网供应链板块移除了 $LITE / $MTSI，仅单独展示 Sivers 作为激光器供应商。Ayar 副总裁也称 Sivers 是“赋能我们光学 I/O 解决方案的关键”，这是相当强烈的看多信号。还有 $JBL 在选定 Sivers 后构建了 1.6T LRO（长距光学），这非常罕见，并在一次壁炉对话中炫耀其技术护城河。$GFS 也选择 Sivers 作为参考激光器并在演示文稿中展示。感觉所有领先玩家都在因某种原因推进 Sivers？我假设这些领先公司做了尽职调查(DD)。
英文原文
@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD
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看好SIVE获新资质或联合开发机会，因行业正积极寻求合作。
@adiradir734145 我认为市场只需让主厨 $SIVE 继续烹饪。从其他财报来看，大家似乎都在积极接触 $MTSI 或 $AAOI 等厂商以达成协议。因此，Sivers 获得新资质或联合开发的机会似乎相当高。
英文原文
@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.
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光模块需求极高且供应链严重短缺，认为板块跑输荒谬，看好行业前景。
非常积极。我的观点是，近期光模块板块从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE 的跑输表现简直荒谬。 需求可见性……简直高得愚蠢。 AOI：“即使合并 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目，未来三年（至2029年）仍很难满足客户需求。” Elazr 总经理：“整个光供应链正面临严重短缺。”“短缺将持续到未来几年。” Sivers CEO 对磷化铟(InP)激光器需求失衡的说法相同，预计未来3-5年持续。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他评论可以列举更多。 我们甚至还没触及 1.6T、NPO、共封装光学(CPO)规模化以及光存一体（如 SK Hynix 所示）的拐点。 然而行业已受限于 EML/CW 及 PD/TIA/DSP、收发器等上游组件，随着 CPO 规模化，FAU 等也将成为瓶颈…… 我个人对这一切的发展感到极度舒适，只是有点困惑市场为何不会算未来一两年的账。
英文原文
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
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看好 $SIVE 作为高贝塔光通信标的，受益于激光器瓶颈及潜在并购。
@Blazedsin 是的，$SIVE 是我首选的高贝塔（High-Beta）光通信多头标的。 这是一家小型公司，为以下领域供应激光器： - 像 $JBL 这样提供可插拔模块的可插拔模块供应商。 - 与 $POET / O-Net 合作的外部光引擎（ELS）+ 光引擎。 - 与 Ayar 等公司合作的光 I/O 扩展。 - 像 $GFS 这样的光子代工（Photonic Foundries），涵盖 NPO/可插拔/CPO 等所有架构。 随着 Win Semi 的独立连续波（CW）产能投产，正值结构性瓶颈期……纳斯达克上市可能在接下来几个季度实现。 而且 CEO 确实懂行 + 与股东利益一致（在二级市场买入股票），稀释程度低就能完成这一切。 他们还暗示了并购（M&A），这对总可寻址市场（TAM）扩张很理想（看看 2023 年下半年 Cloud Light 并购 Lumentum 后发生了什么）。 然后你有 $MTSI，$AAOI 可能不会实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署（参与者池较小）……行业目前面临连续波（CW）短缺，随后才是量产爬坡。针对中国竞争的监管顺风。 我不确定是不是只有我觉得，他们拥有理想的布局，主要缺点是仅在某个小型瑞典交易所上市，这损害了估值。
英文原文
@Blazedsin Yeah, $SIVE is my favorite high-beta optical long. You have a small company supplying lasers for: - Hyperscaler suppliers like $JBL with pluggables. - ELS + optical engines with $POET / O-Net. - Scale up with optical I/O with Ayar and others. - Photonic Foundries like $GFS across all architectures like NPO/pluggables/CPO. with independent CW capacity coming online with Win Semi during a structural bottleneck... NASDAQ listing likely in the next few quarters. And the CEO actually knows what he's doing + aligned with shareholders (in terms of buying stock on the open market), with low dilution to get all of this done. And they hinted at M&A, which is ideal for TAM expansion (look at what happened with Lumentum after Cloud Light H2 2023 M&A). Then you have $MTSI, $AAOI likely no meaningful participating in first-gen CPO deployments (smaller pool of players)... Industry CW shortages currently before volume ramp. Regulation tailwinds targeting Chinese competition. I'm not sure if it's just me but they have the ideal setup, main downside is that it's just listed on some small Swedish exchange and that harms valuations.
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AI光通信供应链严重短缺，光子学或重演存储超级周期。
我们从 $LITE、$MTSI、$AAOI 的财报中均看到激光器/TIA/DSP等存在极端的供需失衡... 现在，Elazr 总经理在其投资者大会上表示： 光模块供应仍远远落后于市场需求，预计 AI 光通信供应链（AI optical supply chain）的紧张局面将持续数年。 - “整个供应链都缺货” - “供应仍远远落后于市场需求” - “短缺将持续到未来几年” “无论是 PCB、载板、激光芯片，还是相关封装产能，只要是 AI 供应链环节，几乎全部短缺。” 当需求可见度延伸至数年且供应链存在瓶颈时： 很难不认为光子学（Photonics）正在重演进入 2027 年的存储超级周期。
英文原文
We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.
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博主分享基于英伟达供应链瓶颈推导高贝塔标的的投资逻辑。
@KhalidIshaq85 至于黄仁勋/英伟达直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial)、$LITE、$COHR 用于光子学(Photonics)领域... - $CCXI (Agility) 用于人形机器人(Humanoids)领域。 我倾向于进行更复杂的投资，这是我的思考过程： -> 我知道共封装光学(CPO)主题即将到来 -> 英伟达锁定了所有连续波(CW)激光器的产能。 -> 也许，$AAOI、$MTSI、$AVGO、$SIVE、$SMTC 是剩余的西方CW玩家。 -> $SIVE 可能是最高贝塔(Beta)的敞口。所以那是我的个人多头头寸。 可能可以对其他主题做类似的分析。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.
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CW激光器供需失衡严重，成AI供应链关键瓶颈。
@blkslymn 我不确定是不是只有我这么看，但我现在正看到巨大的连续波(CW)需求失衡（感谢 $NVDA）。这还是在规模扩展(scale up)和其他 1.6T 产品量产甚至到来之前。然后 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 出现了，它们拥有稀缺且独立的 CW 激光器或光模块产能……这通常会导致其他主要玩家如 $AMD 和超大规模云厂商转向关注它们。$MTSI 表示他们的产能要到 2027 年下半年才开始上线，而客户已经带着紧迫感向他们接洽……CW 激光器是我目前最看好的瓶颈之一。
英文原文
@blkslymn I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.
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IQE论点获验证，债务清零且获大厂订单，作者继续持有看多。
感觉今年2月我对 $IQE 的论点连同 $AXTI 等一起得到了验证。（我目前仍持有两者的多头头寸） 所以我减少了对它们的覆盖。但简而言之，更新如下： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于它的论点时，IQE 是光学供应链中一个陷入困境但关键的瓶颈环节，与 $LITE 等公司有关联。 自那以来： - $MTSI 签署了长期外延晶圆供应协议，并入股该公司，现在 IQE 已无银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签署了磷化铟(InP)外延晶圆协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 族外延晶圆供应” - IQE 签署了另一份约1400万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中仍在展开的部分是 IQE 将其潜在/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以匹配该领域的同行如 Landmark（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，略多于一年的时间）。 还有一些国家安全层面的含义，我将避免谈论，但这使它们更加重要。 但基本上： 2025财年营收：9730万英镑 2026财年指引：超过1.265亿英镑 它们在光学领域再次快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并仍然是西方光学供应链中的关键瓶颈。 现在……随着与领先光子学公司的新协议带来营收增长，以及像 Macom 这样的玩家充当软性后盾。 通常在论点得到验证后，我只是坐享企业的增长。
英文原文
Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.
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COHR财报揭示InP激光器产能紧缺，CPO需求提前，收入高增。
我的主要观点是：商用连续波(CW)激光器供应商现在显得极其重要。 但 $COHR 财报的 TLDR（太长不看版）是： “鉴于我们在数据中心业务中看到的收发器需求，我认为在可预见的未来，我们都不会对外销售磷化铟(InP)激光器。” - 如果 $AAOI 无法为第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署提供足够产能，且 $COHR 不对外销售，那么那些对外销售 InP 激光器的公司将获得更高的估值。 我想这就是为什么 $MTSI 表示大量客户正迫切地向他们寻求 InP CW DFB 激光器（而他们直到 2027 年底才没有有意义的产能上线）。 $AAOI -> 内部自用 $COHR -> 内部自用 买家 -> 寻找产能的选择更少。 “我们的积压订单现已延伸至 2027 财年，基本上已完全预订。我们实际上已预订至 2027 日历年末。” [巨大的需求可见性] - Coherent 还提到了跨越至本十年末的长期协议(LTA)。这在一定程度上印证了 $POET CEO 在其年度股东大会上所说的“三大巨头”未来两年已完全售罄。 “我们目前在组装和测试产能方面并不受限。我们真正受限的是磷化铟生产的爬坡。” - 对于那些关注瓶颈的兄弟们来说，组装/测试并不是瓶颈。 “CPO 需求绝对没有推迟。事实上，情况恰恰相反。我们看到了需求增加，客户的要求被提前。” “我们继续预计来自规模化应用的 CPO 收入将从 2027 年日历年下半年开始流入。” - 如果 $LITE 和 $COHR 确认 CPO 规模化收入将在 2027 年下半年到来，这对其他 CPO 参与者来说是一个巨大的利好传导。 - “到 2027 财年末，季度收入超过 30 亿美元” - $COHR 收入飞速增长 所以常规数据如下： - 收入 20.46 亿美元（环比 +13.3%，同比 +33.8%），主要收入增长看起来发生在进入 Q4 至 2027 年期间 - 非公认会计准则毛利率：40.2% 下一季度指引为： - 收入：22-24 亿美元 - 非公认会计准则毛利率：39.5-41.5% 基本上： 16.9 亿 -> 18.1 亿 -> 20.5 亿 -> ~23.0 亿 -> 30 亿（2027 财年末） ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5%（毛利率） 对于营业利润率： 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% 与 $LITE 的利润率增长相比，我对盈利能力的印象稍逊一筹，但 $COHR 的收入规模正在快速增长。
英文原文
My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now. But TLDR of $COHR earnings: "given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally" - Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally... I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027) $AAOI -> Internal $COHR -> Internal Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity. "Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility] - Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years. "we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production" - Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck. "absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in" "we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027" - Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027. - "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027" - $COHR revenue go brrr So for regular numbers it's: - $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be happening entering Q4 into 2027 - Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2% Next quarter guide is: - Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue - Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5% Basically: $1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027) ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins) For operating margins: 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.
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光通信财报验证CW激光器瓶颈，SIVE作为稀缺CPO标的获看好。
这就是我目前看到的关于 $SIVE 和连续波(Continuous Wave, CW)分布反馈(DFB)激光器瓶颈的情况。 来自光通信板块的财报： 1. $LITE：UHP CW 激光器出现意外需求和供需失衡。 - 有能力提高激光器的平均售价(ASP)。 - 共封装光学(CPO)扩产按计划进行，预计2027年下半年出货，称任何关于CPO扩产延迟的谣言都是噪音。 Lumentum 确认了时间表（此前 Sivers 因误导性报告被抛售），高利润率，以及经过认证的CW激光器需求极度旺盛。 2. $AAOI：由于光模块需求过大，CW 激光器产能不足。 - 并未实质性参与第一代 CPO 部署，$MTSI 看起来也不在其中，专注于非平面光学(NPO)。在 $SMTC 收购 HieFo 后，我没看到太多动静。 - 称激光器是光模块20-40%需求失衡中的瓶颈。 - 称客户每周都来找他们要求供货并加快进度。 AOI 确认了需求失衡 + 激光器瓶颈。第一代 CPO 玩家池子更小。 3. $AAOI 和 $LITE 均称中国玩家在 CPO 激光器方面落后数年，且实际认证产能远落后于其声称。 - $AAOI 称落后2-3年以上。 - $LITE 称未见到如中方声称那样的产出（若虚假也无追责手段）。 重申了 CPO 相关激光器的护城河，光通信板块并未如某些空头声称的那样被中国产品淹没。 4. $MTSI 称许多客户因磷化铟(InP) DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急接触他们。 再次将 Sivers 置于该瓶颈中，使其可能获得更多客户需求。 在 $COHR ($725.4亿市值)、$LITE ($665.7亿市值)、$AVGO ($2.13万亿市值) 中： 能以约 $15亿市值获得西方四大 CPO 领导者之一的 $SIVE，非常特别。 感觉我的论点得到了验证： - 我预测的 CW 瓶颈 - CW 激光器瓶颈（至少对于第一代而言，只有少数 CPO 玩家） 现在只需等待下一代光架构转变的拐点。
英文原文
So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now. From optical earnings: 1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers. - Had ability to price up ASP for lasers. - Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise. Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers. 2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand. - Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition. - Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers. - Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster. AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players. 3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity. - $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers. - $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false). Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector. 4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers. Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand . Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T): It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE. Feels like my thesis with both: - The CW bottleneck that I predicted - CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1) Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.
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看好SIVE获代工产能及上市融资，预期2027H1收入拐点。
@wannabepanacea 鉴于目前业界普遍传闻共封装光学(CPO)中的分布式反馈激光器(DFB)短缺，我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能否获得更多晶圆代工产能分配。因为我相当确信，一旦其资格认证进入量产爬坡阶段，产品就会售罄。除此之外： > 其他财报（如 $MTSI / $AAOI）重申的需求/供应失衡有助于佐证这一点。 > 上一份财报中提到的与可插拔(Pluggable)玩家的新进展/资格认证，可能是影响最大的因素。 > 与 $JBL、~ $AEVA、$POET、$GFS 或其他机会的进展，如果能获得初步采购订单(PO)那就太好了。 > 重申纳斯达克上市更新（我们已经得到消息，计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍将此列为优先事项，因为它能为其并购(M&A)活动解锁更多资金，希望用于可插拔技术栈。 我认为收入拐点大约在 2027 年上半年开始，因此当前的收入/利润数据并不重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发表类似“我们制造的任何东西都预计在 2028 年售罄”的声明，那就太棒了。
英文原文
@wannabepanacea I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
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InP激光器短缺利好SIVE，可套用AAOI产能模型。
我认为现在是重新审视 $SIVE 的时机，其年化产能收入的中位预测约为 4.27 亿美元。 鉴于近期的行业财报： > $AAOI 指出光模块（transceivers）需求存在 20-40% 的失衡（激光器是瓶颈）。 > $MTSI 表示许多“客户因磷化铟（InP）DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急联系我们”（在其他产品线中）。 > 美国提议禁止新的中国光模块（中际旭创/新易盛）。 > AOI 因激光器被分配给光模块，未实质性参与第一代共封装光学（CPO）部署。 解读是：可以将适用于 $AAOI 的产能-需求吸收模型，同样应用于 Sivers 等其他激光器厂商。 鉴于 InP CW DFB 产能的广泛短缺和需求失衡。
英文原文
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.
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激光器及InP衬底未来2-3年或现短缺，CPO扩产加剧瓶颈。
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy 好问题！这是逐年变化的，很难从2026年预测到2030年的短缺，但这绝对是一个结构性的多年需求周期。 我想指出的是，激光器（lasers）在特定领域很可能在未来2-3年面临极端短缺，尤其是在共封装光学(CPO)规模化初期至少如此。 例如，CPO激光器市场所需的产能“比今天大8到10倍”，并补充说：“我认为……完全没影响，因为需求远大于全球产能。” 至于磷化铟(InP)衬底，$AAOI 表示2027年没问题，但由于其关键性希望组建合资企业。 $AXTI 看起来只是逐年倍增产能，具体取决于你问谁。 一些台湾外延片(epiwafer)厂商称InP衬底面临极端短缺，而它们正是激光器厂商的上游。 你的激光器厂商如 $AAOI 和 $MTSI 表示他们没问题。 无论如何，我们看到这转化为 $AXTI 的收入拐点（2027年约1.3亿美元/季度），但我预计鉴于其市场地位，平均售价(ASP)一路上涨。
英文原文
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy Good question! This something year-by-year, can't really predict shortages into 2030 from 2026, but it's definitely a structural multi-year demand cycle. Something that I want to flag is that it looks like lasers in specific would likely have extreme shortages for the next 2-3 years, especially during CPO scale up at the very least. eg. CPO laser market would require capacity "8 to 10x bigger compared to today," and added, "I think… no effect at all because the demand is much bigger than the worldwide capacity." As for InP substrates, $AAOI said they were fine for 2027 calendar year but wanted to form JVs because of likely how critical they are since. $AXTI looked like they were just multiplying capacity year after year and depends on who you ask.. Some of the Taiwan epiwafer players say it's extreme shortages for InP substrates, when they feed into your laser players. Your laser players like $AAOI and $MTSI say they're fine. Regardless, we see that convert into revenue inflection points with AXTI anyway (~$130m/quarter in 2027), but I'm expecting ASP to be hiked along the way given their positioning.
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AAOI财报揭示DSP/TIA瓶颈利好同行，且营收增速惊人。
以下是 $AAOI 财报的一些要点摘要： - 他们也指出了数字信号处理(DSP)和收发器接口放大器(TIA)的瓶颈，这对 $MXL、$SMTC 和 $MTSI 等公司来说是积极的行业利好信号。 - 关于营收增长，他们预计第四季度营收将超过 5 亿美元，这种增长速度简直令人难以置信。 供参考： 第二季度：1.919 亿美元 第三季度：约 2.55 亿-2.9 亿美元 第四季度：5 亿美元以上 到 2027 年中：季度营收年化运行率约 14.1 亿美元 这些光通信玩家强劲的营收爬坡速度总是让我印象深刻。
英文原文
Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.
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AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。
哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。
英文原文
Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.
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MTSI财报证实磷化铟DFB激光器短缺，利好SIVE和LITE。
$MTSI 财报电话会议记录： “由于磷化铟分布反馈(DFB)激光器普遍供应短缺，客户正迫切地向我们寻求解决方案。” 重点在于“迫切”、“连续波(CW) DFB激光器”以及“向我们寻求”。 像 $SIVE 和 $LITE 这样的连续波 DFB 概念股，听到这一激光器瓶颈得到验证应该会很高兴。
英文原文
$MTSI earnings transcript: "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us". CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.
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AAOI无CPO中标，MTSI商业化时间待定，CPO激光器进展不明。
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI 的收入主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但没有共封装光学(CPO)的设计中标。其他像 $MTSI 这样的公司似乎在 CPO 激光器领域莫名消失了。CEO 表示商业化时间“待定”，目前正处于可靠性测试阶段。
英文原文
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And
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IQE与Tower Semi签约，印证其在西方光学供应链中的关键地位。
哇，$IQE 和 $TSEM 签署了一项多年的磷化铟(InP)外延片协议。还记得我在 $12 时告诉过大家 IQE 对西方光学供应链的重要性吗？$MTSI 曾不得不费尽周折以确保从 IQE 获得供应。现在又有了与 Tower Semi 的关键交易。
英文原文
Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi.
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区分增厚型融资与掠夺式稀释。
并不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键取决于融资结构。 如果你通过6亿美元 ATM 融资来建设激光器晶圆厂产能，并且对应 $AAOI 在2027年上半年每月4.71亿美元收入机会（同时市值区间更低），那就是增厚性的。 如果你为了满足纳斯达克上市要求而让 $SIVE 稀释15%，并把募集资金用于并购，那也是增厚性的。 如果你让 $IQE 稀释，并让 $MTSI 做私募来清掉旧的有毒债务，那也是增厚性的。 但如果你像 $IREN 那样稀释60亿美元，并且很可能在每一次反弹时向公开市场抛售，而这些反弹背后是 $SLNH / $BKKT 吹票者推动、其中大多数散户最后归零，那就是掠夺性的。
英文原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
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讨论CHIPS法案资助公司被并购较难，参股或是路径。
回复 @MikeBaumgart1：大型公司很难一时兴起就收购像 $SIVE 这种获得 CHIPS Act 资金支持的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种和政府有关联的公司。 很多企业创投部门有时也会错过。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路径。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会入股 $SIVE。
英文原文
@MikeBaumgart1 It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE
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长文重申SIVE是最有吸引力的CPO/光子学敞口，并列出客户、资金、上市和M&A催化。
$SIVE 是我眼中最有吸引力的 CPO/光子学敞口。 针对错误信息：我没有卖出，也不打算卖出一股。 我确实认为它有一天会从约21亿美元成长为下一个800亿美元以上的 $LITE。 我个人也计划获得更多所有权，并支持它们的并购前景。 我相信财报电话会记录会非常正面。 过去几个月我们发现了很多线索：AlChip/Amazon 私募对 Ayar 有利，并暗示 $SIVE 进入 Trainium 4 设计；Wiwynn + Ayar 的 CPO 放量；$JBL 1.6T 光收发器与 Sivers 的放量比市场预期更快；O-Net 正在扩大与 $SIVE 的 ELS 努力；$YSS 收购 $SIVE 的 allspace 主要合作伙伴并把 Sivers 设计进太空防务主承包商；新的 CHIPS Act 资金；$POET 下半年放量及其新订单（$SIVE 作为光源）；关于 $AAPL 使用 $SIVE 激光用于下一代消费设备的信息；与 Lightelligence、Lightmatter、Celestial/$MRVL、Lightium、$AMD/$GFS、Ayar、可插拔 TAM、NASDAQ 上市、MSCI/Nasdaq OMX 纳入、M&A、$NOK 客户线索、$LITE 的 CW 瓶颈和 Win 产能协议等信息。 这些市场研究都发生在财报之前。任何财报结果只是对供应链映射的确认。 我不认为有人关心前一季度收入，因为 $SIVE 是一个极具吸引力的2027年多头，尤其是下半年以后。 我只看几件事：整体光子学超级周期的 TAM 扩张（如光引擎、ELS、可插拔），来自并购或业务发展的机会；现有客户的放量预期；NASDAQ 上市时间线，以获得更多流动性支持并购；以及 CPO/可插拔的新客户信号。
英文原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables
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深度分析光子学供应链四只股票，强调TAM扩张和垂直整合逻辑，认为是长期核心持仓而非短期交易
当我看到像这样（而且很多）的来自散户投资者的评论时，我立刻认为他们缺乏技术深度。 我来逐一分析从$SIVE到$LPK的每家公司： 1. 光子学TAM（总可寻址市场）从$140亿增长到$1540亿，仅仅两年时间，而且它很可能会在2030年之后继续增长，因为它是下一代架构的首选。 它不会在1年内消失。它不会在3年内消失，这就是为什么$LITE的溢价越来越高，因为他们已经排产到2028年了。 $SIVE供应CW（连续波）激光器，高度绑定CPO（共封装光学）和现在的可插拔收发器，用于1.6T和3.2T... 适用于像$JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET、$MRVL、Celestial和$AMD这样的预期公司。 这不是一个"交易"，它是下一代光子学的核心瓶颈和IP持有者。 而且作为未来几年的舒适持仓是很合适的，因为他们正在扩展成为下一个$LITE。 我个人看到的风险（既然他们已经与这么多玩家完成认证），主要是他们能从整体光学超级周期中捕获多少TAM（市场空间）。（以及Win Semi产能爬坡的潜在风险，但Win体量很大所以我可以放心睡觉）。 因为仅仅供应激光器不足以支撑估值。 是TAM向下扩展到制造整个ELS（外部激光源）或整个可插拔收发器，才让这些激光器公司如此有价值。 之后，他们可以向上垂直整合以扩大毛利率，像$COHR那样做激光代工甚至衬底级别的业务。 在我看来，这是非常不对称的风险/回报比，因为我们已经在$LITE身上看到过——他们从$20亿增长到$800亿。 2. $LPK——是下一代先进封装转向玻璃基板的最纯粹敞口，没有SKC Absolics混乱的财务问题。 几乎每家主要半导体公司从$INTC到三星都在采用玻璃基板。 $LPK基本上就是该瓶颈的$ASML，因为他们目前供应给全球约80%的玩家。 是的，设备供应商有"贸易周期"，比如$ASML，如果有更多晶圆厂资本支出，ASML就会增长。但如果出现低迷，这些往往表现不佳，也无法捕获之后发生的所有量产出货。 然而，如果市值是$6.5亿，他们正在实现$1-2亿收入，随着每个客户的量产出货增长，他们从玻璃基板周期中获得的收益可能会超过当前估值。 而且他们会有基本面支撑（因为越来越多的公司采用封装转型），这会维持他们的估值。 现在只是等待产能爬坡的时机而已。 3. $AAOI——这简直就是美国版的光子学$INTC。可以说Intel不是长期投资。 猜猜你们所有的光收发器是在哪里制造的？ 中国、泰国、马来西亚。如果你看看Innolight、Eoptolink、$FN和其他公司。 AOI正在建设最大的美国本土供应链，包括CW激光器代工以及800G、1.6T组装。 是的，这也有可插拔周期起伏。明年会有1.6T的浪潮，然后CPO会蚕食可插拔市场。 但由于他们在内部制造整个供应链，他们对其他细分市场有极大的选择性。而且像$NVDA的老一代GPU一样，会有主权数据中心对老一代可插拔收发器的需求，来自像$AAOI这样的厂商。 它很可能会继续上涨，因为它在2026年下半年达到每月$4亿+收入的目标。 一路上有很多不同的短期波动，比如$6亿的稀释。 4. $IQE——？？？这是西方世界最重要的外延晶圆玩家之一。 $MTSI不遗余力地偿还了IQE的债务，因为他们不能让IQE倒闭。$IQE还向$LITE供货。 目前世界在 Landmark评论提到的外延晶圆水平和InP衬底水平都存在瓶颈。 他们的财务数据虽然糟糕，但从原始账面价值和他们在整个西方供应链中的价值来看……完全支撑他们的估值。其他光学公司不会让他们核心的上游供应链倒闭。 因为这些价值数千万美元的材料出问题，会搞砸下游价值数十亿美元的产品。 再次强调，光子学是扩展AI所需的下一代架构。不是量子计算那种"还在开发中"的东西。 它就在这里，而且是$NVDA选择的架构。 如果几年后这些都涨了很多，我一点也不会惊讶。 那些认为"只是因为我提到了"就在3个月内一波流的 people，根本不知道他们在说什么。 机构最终会买入这些标的（就像Point 72买入$IQE那样），散户只会在估值已经涨了600%之后才知道。 真的应该在发表评论前做好研究： 这些都是需要深入供应链知识的前瞻性增长公司。
英文原文
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
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列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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IQE 过去三个月涨 4 倍，债务缓解降低长期风险
还不错吧？ $IQE 在过去 3 个月里已经涨了 4 倍。 $MTSI 帮它还债，确实在长期上降低了风险。 我很好奇，有没有 anon 听进去了？ https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
英文原文
Not too shabby? $IQE is now up 4x since in the past 3 months. $MTSI paying off their debts does derisk the company long term. I’m curious if anyone listened anon? https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
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列出一串相关光学链条公司
@milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric、Furukawa Electric、Mitsubishi Electric、$MTSI、$LITE
英文原文
@milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, $MTSI, and $LITE
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LITE 的 CW laser 瓶颈验证了 SIVE 的上游地位
哇……巨大的 CW laser 瓶颈。 有意思的是，$LITE 被 CW lasers 卡住了，所以它们要去公开市场买： “现在我们在自己的供应链里，确实看到一点紧张，必须去外部市场拿 lasers，也就是 CW lasers。” $SIVE / Win、Sumitomo、Furukawa 等都在一个结构性卖断货的市场里…… 很可能是因为像 $LITE 这样的公司必须继续生产 EML。 这也开始解释了为什么 Ayar 在网站上只把 $SIVE 列为唯一 laser 供应商，还把 $LITE / $MTSI 删掉了。
英文原文
Woah... Massive CW laser bottleneck. It's interesting $LITE is bottlenecked by CW lasers so they buy them on the open market: "Now we’ve seen a little bit of tension in our own supply line, externally to get lasers from the external market, CW lasers." $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and others operate in a structurally sold out market... Likely because companies like $LITE have to keep producing EMLs. Starting to make more sense why Ayar made $SIVE the only laser supplier on their website and removed $LITE / $MTSI?