· 供应链分析
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy 好问题！这是逐年变化的，很难从2026年预测到2030年的短缺，但这绝对是一个结构性的多年需求周期。 我想指出的是，激光器（lasers）在特定领域很可能在未来2-3年面临极端短缺，尤其是在共封装光学(CPO)规模化初期至少如此。 例如，CPO激光器市场所需的产能“比今天大8到10倍”，并补充说：“我认为……完全没影响，因为需求远大于全球产能。” 至于磷化铟(InP)衬底，$AAOI 表示2027年没问题，但由于其关键性希望组建合资企业。 $AXTI 看起来只是逐年倍增产能，具体取决于你问谁。 一些台湾外延片(epiwafer)厂商称InP衬底面临极端短缺，而它们正是激光器厂商的上游。 你的激光器厂商如 $AAOI 和 $MTSI 表示他们没问题。 无论如何，我们看到这转化为 $AXTI 的收入拐点（2027年约1.3亿美元/季度），但我预计鉴于其市场地位，平均售价(ASP)一路上涨。
@SL2056 @Sofigoodboy Good question! This something year-by-year, can't really predict shortages into 2030 from 2026, but it's definitely a structural multi-year demand cycle. Something that I want to flag is that it looks like lasers in specific would likely have extreme shortages for the next 2-3 years, especially during CPO scale up at the very least. eg. CPO laser market would require capacity "8 to 10x bigger compared to today," and added, "I think… no effect at all because the demand is much bigger than the worldwide capacity." As for InP substrates, $AAOI said they were fine for 2027 calendar year but wanted to form JVs because of likely how critical they are since. $AXTI looked like they were just multiplying capacity year after year and depends on who you ask.. Some of the Taiwan epiwafer players say it's extreme shortages for InP substrates, when they feed into your laser players. Your laser players like $AAOI and $MTSI say they're fine. Regardless, we see that convert into revenue inflection points with AXTI anyway (~$130m/quarter in 2027), but I'm expecting ASP to be hiked along the way given their positioning.